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  • 1
  • 2
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    [Edgecumbe, N.Z.] : A. Muller
    Call number: M 15.89146
    Description / Table of Contents: An account of the results of the 2 March 1987 earthquake in the eastern Bay of Plenty and the aftermath's effects on the people and places on the Rangitaiki Plains
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 223 S., , Ill.
    Language: English
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 3
    Call number: Z 06.0500
    Type of Medium: Journal available for loan
    Pages: 30 cm
    ISSN: 1824-7741
    Former Title: Vorgänger Geologisch-paläontologische Mitteilungen, Innsbruck
    Language: German , English
    Note: Ersch. unregelmäßig , Beiträge teilweise in Englisch
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 4
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Garmisch-Partenkirchen : Institut für atmosphärische Umweltforschung der Fraunhofer- Gesellschaft
    Call number: MOP 44829 / Mitte
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 25 S. , graph. Darst.
    Language: English
    Location: MOP - must be ordered
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 5
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Stuttgart : Schweizerbart Science Publishers ; Volume 1, number 1 (1978)-
    Call number: M 18.91571
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 134 Seiten
    ISSN: 2363-7196
    Series Statement: Global tectonics and metallogeny : special issue Vol. 10/2-4
    Classification:
    Tectonics
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Global tectonics and metallogeny
    Language: English
    Location: Upper compact magazine
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 6
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    London : Penguin Books
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    ISBN: 9780141985206
    Language: English
    Branch Library: RIFS Library
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  • 7
    Monograph non-lending collection
    Monograph non-lending collection
    Leiden : Nijhoff ; 1.2009 -
    Call number: IASS 17.92082
    Type of Medium: Monograph non-lending collection
    ISSN: 1876-8814
    Language: English
    Branch Library: RIFS Library
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  • 8
    Journal available for loan
    Journal available for loan
    Tübingen : Mohr Siebeck ; 1.1884 - 48.1931; N.F. 1.1932/33 - 10.1943/44(1945),3; 11.1948/49(1949) -
    Call number: ZS 22.95039
    Type of Medium: Journal available for loan
    Pages: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1614-0974 , 0015-2218 , 0015-2218
    Language: German , English
    Note: N.F. entfällt ab 57.2000. - Volltext auch als Teil einer Datenbank verfügbar , Ersch. ab 2000 in engl. Sprache mit dt. Hauptsacht.
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  • 9
    Call number: 3/S 07.0034(2016)
    In: Annual report
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 51 Seiten
    ISSN: 1865-6439 , 1865-6447
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Annual report ... / Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
    Language: English
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2024-02-23
    Description: The establishment of the Leveraging a Climate-neutral Society–strategic Research Network (LCS–RNet) (then named the International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies) was proposed at the Group of Eight (G8) Environment Ministers’ Meeting in 2008. Its 12th annual meeting in December 2021 focused on the discussion on how to transition into a just and sustainable society and how to reduce the risks associated with the transition. This requires comprehensive studies including on the concept of transition, pathways to net-zero societies and how to realise the pathways by collaborating with various stakeholders. This Special Feature provides new insights into sustainability science by linking the scientific knowledge with practical science for the transition through the exploration of studies presented at the annual meeting. Following the opening paper, "A challenge for sustainability science: can we halt climate change?", a wide range of topics were discussed, including practices for sustainable transformation in the Erasmus University, practices in industry, energy transition and international cooperation.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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  • 11
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    Dessau-Roßlau : Umweltbundesamt
    Publication Date: 2024-02-23
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: report , doc-type:report
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: This paper examines the current and prospective greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of e-fuels produced via electrolysis and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS) for the years 2021, 2030, and 2050 for use in Germany. The GHG emissions are determined by a scenario approach as a combination of a literature-based top-down and bottom-up approach. Considered process steps are the provision of feedstocks, electrolysis (via solid oxide co-electrolysis; SOEC), synthesis (via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis; FTS), e-crude refining, eventual transport to, and use in Germany. The results indicate that the current GHG emissions for e-fuel production in the exemplary export countries Saudi Arabia and Chile are above those of conventional fuels. Scenarios for the production in Germany lead to current GHG emissions of 2.78-3.47 kgCO2-eq/L e-fuel in 2021 as the reference year and 0.064-0.082 kgCO2-eq/L e-fuel in 2050. With a share of 58-96%, according to the respective scenario, the electrolysis is the main determinant of the GHG emissions in the production process. The use of additional renewable energy during the production process in combination with direct air capture (DAC) are the main leverages to reduce GHG emissions.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: Direct air capture (DAC) combined with subsequent storage (DACCS) is discussed as one promising carbon dioxide removal option. The aim of this paper is to analyse and comparatively classify the resource consumption (land use, renewable energy and water) and costs of possible DAC implementation pathways for Germany. The paths are based on a selected, existing climate neutrality scenario that requires the removal of 20 Mt of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year by DACCS from 2045. The analysis focuses on the so-called "low-temperature" DAC process, which might be more advantageous for Germany than the "high-temperature" one. In four case studies, we examine potential sites in northern, central and southern Germany, thereby using the most suitable renewable energies for electricity and heat generation. We show that the deployment of DAC results in large-scale land use and high energy needs. The land use in the range of 167-353 km2 results mainly from the area required for renewable energy generation. The total electrical energy demand of 14.4 TWh per year, of which 46% is needed to operate heat pumps to supply the heat demand of the DAC process, corresponds to around 1.4% of Germany's envisaged electricity demand in 2045. 20 Mt of water are provided yearly, corresponding to 40% of the city of Cologne's water demand (1.1 million inhabitants). The capture of CO2 (DAC) incurs levelised costs of 125-138 EUR per tonne of CO2, whereby the provision of the required energy via photovoltaics in southern Germany represents the lowest value of the four case studies. This does not include the costs associated with balancing its volatility. Taking into account transporting the CO2 via pipeline to the port of Wilhelmshaven, followed by transporting and sequestering the CO2 in geological storage sites in the Norwegian North Sea (DACCS), the levelised costs increase to 161-176 EUR/tCO2. Due to the longer transport distances from southern and central Germany, a northern German site using wind turbines would be the most favourable.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2024-01-18
    Description: A clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies and a structured vision are prerequisites for fostering and steering a transition to a fully renewables-based energy system. To facilitate such understanding, a phase model for the renewable energy (RE) transition in MENA countries has been developed and applied to the country case of Morocco. It is designed to support the strategy development and governance of the energy transition and to serve as a guide for decision makers. Such a phase model could be shared widely as part of Morocco's engagement in international platforms of multilateral collaboration, such as the Energy Transition Council (chaired by the United Kingdom (UK) and managed by the British Embassy - Rabat). The analysis shows that Morocco has fully embarked on the energy transition. According to the MENA phase model, Morocco can be classified as being in the second phase "System Integration of Renewables". Nevertheless, Morocco plans to considerably increase the use of natural gas in order to back up intermittent solar and wind energy sources. The diversification of energy sources and a diverse portfolio of storage options, including solar thermal power and hydrogen, can foster flexibility options. To this end, a roadmap for power-to-X (PtX) should be considered for a smooth transition of the Moroccan energy supply and demand system. The expansion of local REs can significantly contribute to reducing Morocco's high fossil fuel imports that are causing a high fiscal burden. With this regard, energy security can be strengthened. Next to large-scale deployment, decentralisation of the energy system must be built to encourage an energy transition on all societal levels. The results of the analysis along the transition phase model towards 100% RE are intended to stimulate and support the discussion on Morocco's future energy system by providing an overarching guiding vision for energy transition and the development of appropriate policies.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: report , doc-type:report
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2023-12-20
    Description: Striving to mitigate climate change, the European Union has adopted net-zero greenhouse gas emissions as a target for 2050. In this paper, European chemical industry roadmaps from the past six years are assessed and compared to uncover how the industry envisions its role in the transition to net-zero emissions. The roadmaps are assessed in terms of ambition level, technology and feedstock strategies, investment needs and costs, agency and dependency on other actors, as well as timeline and concretion. Although net-zero pathways are often drawn out in the roadmaps, some also choose to emphasize and argue for less ambitious pathways with emission reductions of only 40-60 %. The roadmaps vary widely in terms of the importance they assign to mechanical and chemical recycling, switching to biogenic carbon and carbon dioxide as feedstock, electrification and hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage. A commonality though, is that low-tech or near-term mitigation pathways such as demand reduction, reuse or material efficiency are seldom included. High investment needs are generally highlighted, as well as the need for policy to create enabling conditions, whereas the agency and responsibility of the chemical industry itself is downplayed. Our analysis highlights that the chemical industry does not yet have a strong and shared vision for pathways to net-zero emissions. We conclude that such a future vision would benefit from taking a whole value chain approach including demand-side options and consideration of scope 3 emissions.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: Green hydrogen and synthetic fuels are increasingly recognized as a key strategic element for the progress of the global energy transition. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with its large wind and solar potential, is well positioned to generate renewable energy at low cost for the production of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels, and is therefore considered as a potential future producer and exporter. Yet, while solar and wind energy potentials are essential, other factors are expected to play an equally important role for the development of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels (export) sectors. This includes, in particular, adequate industrial capacities and infrastructures. These preconditions vary from country to country, and while they have been often mentioned in the discussion on green hydrogen exports, they have only been examined to a limited extent. This paper employs a case study approach to assess the existing infrastructural and industrial conditions in Jordan, Morocco, and Oman for the development of a green hydrogen and downstream synthetic fuel (export) sector.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2024-03-13
    Description: The petrochemical industry is among the most relevant sectors from an economic, energetic and climate policy perspective. In Western Europe, production occurs in local chemical parks that form strongly connected and densely integrated regional clusters. This paper analyzes the structural characteristics of the petrochemical system in Germany and investigates three particularly distinct clusters regarding their challenges and chances for a transition towards climate-neutrality. For this, feedstock and energy supply, product portfolios and process integration as well as existing transformation activities are examined. We find that depending on their distinct network characteristics and location, unique and complex strategies are to be mastered for every cluster. Despite the many activities underway, none of them seems to have a strategic network to co-create a tailored defossilization strategy for the cluster - which is the core recommendation of this paper to develop.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2024-03-20
    Description: This paper presents a novel governance concept for sustainable development, introducing the "Safe System Approach" as a transformative model that shifts focus from individual behavioural change to systemic transformation. This approach challenges traditional governance models that emphasize individual responsibility in achieving sustainable development and decarbonization. Instead, it advocates for creating an enabling environment that inherently guides individuals and communities towards sustainable actions. The Safe System Approach is centred on delivering low-carbon services across essential sectors, including electricity, mobility, industry, buildings, human settlements, and agriculture, thereby embedding sustainability as a default choice in societal systems. Drawing parallels with successful models in road safety, the paper explores the potential of this approach in urban development and climate action. It emphasizes the need for a broad coalition and integrated approaches in managing shared resources, highlighting the significance of systemic adjustments over individual behavioral change. By proposing a structure where sustainability is facilitated by the system's design, the paper builds on key concepts from seminal works by scholars like Garrett Hardin, Mancur Olson, Elinor Ostrom, and Ahrend Lijphart. It discusses the challenges and opportunities in creating safe operating spaces for sustainable development, emphasizing the need for multi-actor, multilevel governance systems that can manage shared resources sustainably and are resilient to political volatility. The paper aims to offer a robust, efficient, and inclusive pathway to sustainable development, contributing to the global discourse on environmental and social resilience.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2024-03-21
    Description: Ways of evaluating the societal impact of real-world labs as a transdisciplinary and transformative research format are under discussion. We present an evaluation approach rooted in structuration theory, with a focus on structure-agency dynamics at the science-society interface. We applied the theory with its four modalities (interpretation schemes, norms, allocative and authoritative resources) to the case of the Mirke neighbourhood in Wuppertal, Germany. Six projects promoted the capacity for co-productive city-making. The effects of the projects were jointly analysed in a co-evaluation process. Previously proposed subcategories of the modalities as an empirical operationalisation were tested and confirmed as being applicable. Five new subcategories were generated. The use of the modalities seems appropriate for co-evaluation processes. The tool is practical, focused on real-world effects, and suitable for transdisciplinary interpretation processes. We encourage further empirical testing of the tool, as well as development of the subcategories.
    Keywords: ddc:300
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2024-03-21
    Description: Real-world laboratories (RwLs) are gaining further traction as a means to achieve systemic impacts towards sustainability transformation. To guide the analysis of intended impacts, we introduce the concept of leverage points, discerning where, how, and to what end RwLs intervene in systems. Building on conceptual reasoning, we further develop our argument by exploring two RwL cases. Examining RwLs through the lens of the leverage points opens the way for a balanced and comprehensive approach to systemic experimentation. We invite RwL researchers and practitioners to further advance RwLs' transformative capacity by targeting the design and emerging direction of a system, contributing to a culture of sustainability.
    Keywords: ddc:300
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2024-04-08
    Description: In light of Egypt's transition to a green economy, this report focuses on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resource efficiency along three different value chains in which small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play a crucial role. In order to support SMEs in Egypt to take advantage of implementing greening options along value chains, more detailed analyses are needed. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyse three selected supply chains to identify greening opportunities for SMEs. Against this background, the project report is structured as follows: Chapter 2 introduces the background with an overview over the concept of green economy followed by Egypt's economy and its green economy. This is followed by a presentation of the value chains and an overview of the respective sectors. Chapter 3 describes the research approach, methods and data collection. The following chapters examine the three selected value chains cotton, sugar beet and refrigerators, including environmental hot spots, greening options as well as the experts' evaluation of those greening options. The report concludes with key recommendations in Chapter 7.
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: report , doc-type:report
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2024-04-10
    Description: In order to limit global warming and fulfill their contributions to the Paris agreement, both Germany and Japan have set targets for climate neutrality towards the middle of the century. Reaching these goals will imply transformation of all sectors of society to avoid all fossil greenhouse gas emissions, heavy industry not the least. The focus of this study is the transformation of the petrochemical industry. This sector can become climate neutral but cannot be "decarbonized", as carbon is integral to the chemical structures of the products like polymers and solvents. Reaching climate neutrality thus means that the whole lifecycle of the petrochemical products has to be regarded. Another specific challenge is today's synergetic relation of this industry to fossil transport fuel production, which cannot be maintained in a climate neutral world. The two countries interestingly share a similar industrial structure overall, and the chemical and petrochemical industry is one of the major industries in both countries. The countries' respective chemical industries are the third and fourth largest in the world in terms of sales, but at the same time, these industries represent just over 5% of the respective countries' greenhouse gas emissions. However, these scope 1 emissions of the chemical industry itself are far less relevant than the end-of-life emissions of their products, which belong to scope 3 and are thus not counted under the chemical industry in the country greenhouse gas balances. To mediate these emissions, there is a need to set the direction, draw out paths and investigate possible alternatives for how the petrochemical industry can be become climate neutral. In this report, the existing scenario analyses, energy strategies and roadmaps dealing with this issue in the two countries are compared, as well as the current state of their petrochemical industries. We highlight similarities, differences and identify possible areas of cooperation and exchange in order to find robust paths forward for the transformation of the petrochemical industries.
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2024-03-07
    Description: Demand-side mitigation strategies have been gaining momentum in climate change mitigation research. Still, the impact of different approaches in passenger transport, one of the largest energy demand sectors, remains unclear. We couple a transport simulation model to an energy system optimisation model, both highly disintegrated in order to compare those impacts. Our scenarios are created for the case of Germany in an interdisciplinary, qualitative-quantitative research design, going beyond techno-economic assumptions, and cover Avoid, Shift, and Improve strategies, as well as their combination. The results show that sufficiency - Avoid and Shift strategies - have the same impact as the improvement of propulsion technologies (i.e. efficiency), which is reduction of generation capacities by one quarter. This lowers energy system transformation cost accordingly, but requires different kinds of investments: Sufficiency measures require public investment for high-quality public services, while efficiency measures require individuals to purchase more expensive vehicles at their own cost. These results raise socio-political questions of system design and well-being. However, all strategies are required to unleash the full potential of climate change mitigation.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2024-04-19
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Heavy‐mineral suites are used widely in sandstone provenance and are key when connecting source and sink. When characterizing provenance related signatures, it is essential to understand the different factors that may influence a particular heavy‐mineral assemblage for example, chemical weathering or diagenetic processes. Hydrodynamics, causing size‐density sorting, exert major control on the distribution of heavy minerals. Here, we highlight the effect of grain‐size inheritance, essentially the absence of certain grain sizes within a specific heavy‐mineral species, on two distinct types of sediments. Modern deposits from a high‐energy beach in NW Denmark give an analog for heavily reworked sediment, primarily controlled by hydrodynamic processes. In contrast, three Palaeogene turbidite successions in the Eastern Alps were sampled, presenting a more complex history that includes diagenesis. All samples were processed for their heavy‐mineral compositions using Raman spectroscopy, and several techniques applied to determine the effect of grain‐size inheritance. Results show that (a) even within the hydrodynamically well‐sorted beach and placer deposits, evidence of grain‐size inheritance is apparent, and (b) turbidites of variable heavy‐mineral composition show strong effects of grain‐size inheritance for several mineral species. Moreover, considerable intersample contrasts within single turbidite beds are observed. We enforce the importance of understanding grain‐size inheritance, as well as other processes effecting size‐density relations in clastic sediment that go well beyond purely hydrodynamic control of intrasample heavy‐mineral variability.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Heavy minerals are commonly found within sediments and sedimentary rocks and can tell us from which source regions the sediment may have originated. However, it is important to understand that the type, size, and abundance of particular heavy minerals can change depending on factors such as environmental conditions. The size, shape, and density of the heavy minerals also limits when and where they will settle and/or stay. A lack of big or small grains of a particular heavy mineral in the source rocks dictates the size of the minerals deposited; this is known as grain‐size inheritance. Using both ancient and modern sediment, we are looking for traces of grain‐size inheritance. Surprisingly, in all samples investigated we noted effects of grain‐size inheritance, for different heavy‐mineral types. The modern beach sediments, as expected, show more impact of hydraulic processes, but inherited grain sizes are still apparent. Within the ancient examples, grain‐size inheritance is more obvious, with further variations even observed between samples collected from the same area. Having identified this control on grain size, we can highlight the importance of understanding this effect when analyzing clastic sediments.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Understanding factors that can modify a heavy‐mineral assemblage is fundamental in provenance analysis〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Heavy minerals of two distinct sedimentary environments were analyzed and compared to their “ideal” hydrodynamically sorted compositions〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Several heavy‐mineral species of modern and ancient settings were identified to be influenced by grain‐size inheritance from the source〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: https://doi.org/10.25625/MVUIJQ
    Keywords: ddc:552.5 ; heavy minerals ; provenance ; grain‐size inheritance ; hydrodynamics ; diagenesis
    Language: English
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2024-04-19
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The Ismenius Lacus region of Mars has a diverse geological history, and we present the first high‐resolution map of Deuteronilus Cavus (36.2°N; 14.0°E, ∼120 km diameter) in the fretted terrain south of the dichotomy boundary. Strong evidence suggests a volcanic origin of the regional plains, based on the ∼50 m thick volcanic bed underlying 180–300 m of sublimation residue associated with Amazonian plateau glaciation. Pervasive external volcanic flooding, internal erosional modification, and enlargement of a pre‐existing crater by up to 175%–200% resulted in the cavus' present shape. The phyllosilicates detected within Deuteronilus Cavus could be primary materials associated with the surficial aqueous activity, subsurface alteration products excavated by impacts, or a combination of both. We observe branching fluvial channels that are more recent than the traditional valley networks and may be related to fretted terrain resurfacing during the waning period of a high‐obliquity glaciation phase. This is consistent with our interpretation of the ∼600 m thick lobate and lineated deposits, which are remnants of receding glaciers. The glacial ice, protected by a 15–20 m insulating layer of debris cover, is of significant interest for future landing missions because of its potential to preserve biological and climatological signatures, to provide a critical test of Amazonian plateau glaciation, and to be used for in situ resource utilization. With our detailed geological mapping, we improved our understanding of the geological evolution and climatic conditions in the enigmatic fretted terrain near the dichotomy boundary.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The ∼120 km long Deuteronilus Cavus was initiated by an impact event. The resulting impact crater was modified by glacial erosional and fluvial processes, leading to the enlargement of 175%–200% of the pre‐existing crater. In addition, we find strong evidence for recent glaciation (〈1 Ga) that left 180–300 m of sublimation residue on the plateau superimposed on a ∼50 m thick volcanic bed, suggesting a volcanic origin of the regional plains. During the waning period of a high‐glacial phase, the meltwater ponded on the surface of the cavus, altered surface rocks to produce phyllosilicates, formed channels (now observed as inverted sinuous ridges), and locally distributed branched fluvial channels that are more recent than the traditional valley networks. Glacial landforms still contain up to 600 m of remnant ice from the retreating glaciers at the end of the last glacial period. The relatively pure ice, protected by a 15–20 m insulating layer of debris cover, is critical for future landing missions because of its potential to preserve biological and climatological signatures and to be used for in situ resource utilization. Overall, this research enhances our understanding of the geological evolution and climatic history of Mars.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We have produced the first high‐resolution map of Deuteronilus Cavus in the fretted terrain south of the Martian dichotomy boundary〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The region records a complex erosional and depositional history, including fluvial and glacial processes in the Amazonian period〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉This study provides a framework for exploration of high‐obliquity mid‐latitude plateau glaciation〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002946
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8205276
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17189/1520332
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17189/1520266
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17189/1520303
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-pm8ptbq
    Keywords: ddc:523 ; Mars ; Deuteronilus Cavus ; geological mapping ; glaciation
    Language: English
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: Real-world labs are witnessing continued growth and institutionalization in the field of transformation-oriented sustainability research, as well as in adjacent disciplines. With their experimental research agendas, these labs aim at sustainability transformations, however, there is still a need to improve the understanding of their impacts. Drawing from this Special Issue's contributions, we offer a broad overview of the impacts achieved by various real-world labs, highlight the diverse areas and forms of impact, and elucidate strategies as well as mechanisms for achieving impact. We present methodological advances, and address common challenges along with potential solutions for understanding and realizing impact.
    Keywords: ddc:300
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: contributiontoperiodical , doc-type:contributionToPeriodical
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: report , doc-type:report
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: As society's reliance on software systems escalates over time, so too does the cost of failure of these systems. Meanwhile, the complexity of software systems, as well as of their designs, is also ever-increasing, influenced by the proliferation of new tools and technologies to address intended societal needs. The traditional response to this complexity in software engineering and software architecture has been to apply rationalistic approaches to software design through methods and tools for capturing design rationale and evaluating various design options against a set of criteria. However, research from other fields demonstrates that intuition may also hold benefits for making complex design decisions. All humans, including software designers, use intuition and rationality in varying combinations. The aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive overview of what is known and unknown from existing research regarding the use and performance consequences of using intuition and rationality in software design decision-making. To this end, a systematic literature review has been conducted, with an initial sample of 3909 unique publications and a final sample of 26 primary studies. We present an overview of existing research, based on the literature concerning intuition and rationality use in software design decision-making and propose a research agenda with 14 questions that should encourage researchers to fill identified research gaps. This research agenda emphasizes what should be investigated to be able to develop support for the application of the two cognitive processes in software design decision-making.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Mercury is the smallest and innermost planet of our solar system and has a dipole‐dominated internal magnetic field that is relatively weak, very axisymmetric and significantly offset toward north. Through the interaction with the solar wind, a magnetosphere is created. Compared to the magnetosphere of Earth, Mercury's magnetosphere is smaller and more dynamic. To understand the magnetospheric structures and processes we use in situ MESSENGER data to develop further a semi‐empiric model of the magnetospheric magnetic field, which can explain the observations and help to improve the mission planning for the BepiColombo mission en‐route to Mercury. We present this semi‐empiric KTH22‐model, a modular model to calculate the magnetic field inside the Hermean magnetosphere. Korth et al. (2015, 〈ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021022"〉https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JA021022〈/ext-link〉, 2017, 〈ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl074699"〉https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl074699〈/ext-link〉) published a model, which is the basis for the KTH22‐model. In this new version, the representation of the neutral sheet current magnetic field is more realistic, because it is now based on observations rather than ad‐hoc assumptions. Furthermore, a new module is added to depict the eastward ring shaped current magnetic field. These enhancements offer the possibility to improve the main field determination. In addition, analyzing the magnetic field residuals allows us to investigate the field‐aligned currents and their possible dependencies on external drivers. We see increasing currents under more disturbed conditions inside the magnetosphere, but no clear dependence on the z‐component of the interplanetary magnetic field nor on the magnetosheath plasma 〈italic〉β〈/italic〉.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We present a revised model of Mercury's magnetospheric magnetic field〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The model now includes an eastward ring shaped current and the neutral sheet current is calculated more precisely with Biot Savart's law〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The strength of the field‐aligned currents increases with higher magnetic activity〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: German Ministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz and the German Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: ESA Research Fellowship
    Keywords: ddc:523 ; Mercury ; magnetosphere ; field‐aligned currents ; modeling ; neutral sheet current ; planetary dipole moment
    Language: English
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Recent observations and modeling increasingly reveal the key role of cold pools in organizing the convective cloud field. Several methods for detecting cold pools in simulations exist, but are usually based on buoyancy fields and fall short of reliably identifying the active gust front. The current cold pool (CP) detection and tracking algorithm (CoolDeTA), aims to identify cold pools and follow them in time, thereby distinguishing their active gust fronts and the “offspring” rain cells generated nearby. To accomplish these tasks, CoolDeTA utilizes a combination of thermodynamic and dynamical variables and examines the spatial and temporal relationships between cold pools and rain events. We demonstrate that CoolDeTA can reconstruct CP family trees. Using CoolDeTA we can contrast radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) and diurnal cycle CP dynamics, as well as cases with vertical wind shear and without. We show that the results obtained are consistent with a conceptual model where CP triggering of children rain cells follows a simple birth rate, proportional to a CP's gust front length. The proportionality factor depends on the ambient atmospheric stability and is lower for RCE, in line with marginal stability as traditionally ascribed to the moist adiabat. In the diurnal case, where ambient stability is lower, the birth rate thus becomes substantially higher, in line with periodic insolation forcing—resulting in essentially run‐away mesoscale excitations generated by a single parent rain cell and its CP.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Cold pools are cooled air masses below thunderstorm clouds, produced when rain evaporates underneath such clouds. Cold pools are important, as they produce strong gusts and have been associated with clumping of rain cells, whereby heavy rainfall over relatively small areas could be generated—with implications for flooding. The current work describes a method that helps identify such cold pools in computer simulation data. In contrast to earlier methods, we here show that the interaction between a CP and its surroundings can be reconstructed by the method. We show that this identification works under a range of contexts, such as when horizontal wind is applied in the simulations or when the surface temperature is not constant—as might often be the case over a land surface. The identification reveals interesting dynamical effects, such as that in some cases, cold pools can kick‐start a form of chain reaction, by which “rain cell children” of it give rise to additional cold pools that again produce children, and so forth. The dynamics revealed is in line with expectations of widespread, so‐called mesoscale convective systems over land, whereas over an ocean surface the dynamics is much less explosive.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Our CoolDeTA algorithm reliably detects and tracks cold pools and their causal chains〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We propose a simple conceptual model which reproduces the cascade‐like mesoscale cold pool dynamics identified by CoolDeTA〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉CoolDeTA opens for new studies into the dynamics of convective self‐organization through cold pools〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Villum Fonden http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100008398
    Description: European Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781
    Description: Novo Nordisk Foundation Interdisciplinary Synergy Program
    Description: Scientific Steering Committee
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6513224
    Description: https://github.com/Shakiro7/coldPool-detection-and-tracking
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10115957
    Description: https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.453
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; cold pools ; detection ; tracking ; cloud resolving simulation ; convective organization
    Language: English
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The seasonal deposition and sublimation of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 constitute a major element in the Martian volatile cycle. Here, we propose to use the shadow variations of the ice blocks at the foot of the steep scarps of the North Polar Layered Deposits (NPLD) to infer the vertical evolution of the seasonal deposits. We conduct an experiment at a steep scarp centered at (85.0°N, 151.5°E). We assume that no snowfall remains on top of the selected ice blocks, the frost ice layer is homogeneous around the ice blocks and their surroundings, and no significant moating is present. We show that the average thickness of the seasonal deposits due to snowfalls in Mars Year 31 is 0.97 ± 0.13 m at Ls = 350.7° in late winter. The large depth measured makes us wonder if snowfalls are more frequent and violent than previously thought. Meanwhile, we show that the average frost thickness in Mars Year 31 reaches 0.64 ± 0.18 m at Ls = 350.7° in late winter. Combined, the total thickness of the seasonal cover in Mars Year 31 reaches 1.63 ± 0.22 m at Ls = 350.7° in late winter, continuously decreases to 0.45 ± 0.06 m at Ls = 42.8° in middle spring and 0.06 ± 0.05 m at Ls = 69.6° in late spring. These estimates are up to 0.8 m lower than the existing Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter results during the spring. Meanwhile, we observe that snow in the very early spring of Mars Year 36 can be 0.36 ± 0.13 m thicker than that in Mars Year 31. This study demonstrates the dynamics of the Martian climate and emphasizes the importance of its long‐term monitoring.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Like Earth, Mars also has seasons. Up to one third of the atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 annually exchanges with the polar surface through seasonal deposition/sublimation processes. Deposition can be either atmospheric precipitation as snowfall or direct surface condensation as frost. At the steep scarps of the North Polar Layered Deposits (NPLD), fractured ice fragments can detach and fall to form ice blocks. We propose to use variations in the shadows of these ice blocks, observed in the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment images, to infer the thickness evolution of the seasonal deposits. We make reasonable assumptions about the distribution of snowfall and frost around the ice blocks and their surroundings, which allow us to separately measure the thickness of snowfall and frost. Meanwhile, we introduce a novel approach that allows us to estimate the thickness of the seasonal deposits during late winter and early spring when image quality is insufficient. This approach also enables us to peer into the interannual thickness variations of snowfall. We carry out a successful experiment at a scarp centered at (85.0°N, 151.5°E). The obtained thickness measurements demonstrate the dynamics of the Martian volatile cycling and can be used to constrain the Martian climate models.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We propose to examine the shadow variations of the ice blocks at the Martian polar region to infer the thickness of the seasonal deposits〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Maximum thickness of the seasonal deposits at the study scarp in MY31 is 1.63 ± 0.22 m to which snowfalls contribute 0.97 ± 0.13 m〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Seasonal deposits at the study scarp are up to 0.8 m shallower than previous measurements during spring〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: HX, LML, and PJG
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17189/1520303
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17632/5yy475dbry.1
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17632/x953mzxxvv.1
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17189/1520101
    Description: http://www.msss.com/moc_gallery/2001
    Keywords: ddc:523 ; Mars ; seasonal polar caps ; thickness ; ice blocks ; HiRISE ; CO2
    Language: English
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉〈italic〉INSIGHT〈/italic〉 is a Python‐based software tool for processing and reducing 2D grazing‐incidence wide‐ and small‐angle X‐ray scattering (GIWAXS/GISAXS) data. It offers the geometric transformation of the 2D GIWAXS/GISAXS detector image to reciprocal space, including vectorized and parallelized pixel‐wise intensity correction calculations. An explicit focus on efficient data management and batch processing enables full control of large time‐resolved synchrotron and laboratory data sets for a detailed analysis of kinetic GIWAXS/GISAXS studies of thin films. It processes data acquired with arbitrarily rotated detectors and performs vertical, horizontal, azimuthal and radial cuts in reciprocal space. It further allows crystallographic indexing and GIWAXS pattern simulation, and provides various plotting and export functionalities. Customized scripting offers a one‐step solution to reduce, process, analyze and export findings of large 〈italic〉in situ〈/italic〉 and 〈italic〉operando〈/italic〉 data sets.〈/p〉
    Keywords: ddc:548 ; grazing‐incidence X‐ray scattering ; time‐resolved studies ; in situ studies ; operando studies ; computer programs
    Language: English
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Dansgaard‐Oeschger (D‐O) climate variability during the last glaciation was first evidenced in ice cores and marine sediments, and is also recorded in various terrestrial paleoclimate archives in Europe. The relative synchronicity across Greenland, the North Atlantic and Europe implies a tight and fast coupling between those regions, most probably effectuated by an atmospheric transmission mechanism. In this study, we investigated the atmospheric changes during Greenland interstadial (GI) and stadial (GS) phases based on regional climate model simulations using two specific periods, GI‐10 and GS‐9 both around 40 ka, as boundary conditions. Our simulations accurately capture the changes in temperature and precipitation as reconstructed by the available proxy data. Moreover, the simulations depict an intensified and southward shifted eddy‐driven jet during the stadial period. Ultimately, this affects the near‐surface circulation toward more southwesterly and cyclonic flow in western Europe during the stadial period, explaining much of the seasonal climate variability recorded by the proxy data, including oxygen isotopes, at the considered proxy sites.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The climate during the last ice age varied between colder and warmer periods on timescales ranging from hundreds to thousands of years. This variability was first detected in Greenland ice cores and marine sediment cores of the North Atlantic, as well as in continental geological records in Europe. The variation between the colder and warmer periods occur mostly simultaneously in Greenland and in Europe, which is why the atmosphere is assumed to have an important role in transferring the climate signals. We simulated two different periods of the last ice age, one colder and one warmer around 40,000 years ago, using a regional climate model. The aim was to study how the climate and atmospheric circulation changed during these two periods. We find the eddy‐driven jet over the North Atlantic intensified and shifted southward during the colder period. The jet influences the near‐surface atmospheric circulation and leads to more southwesterly and cyclonic flow in western Europe. Oxygen isotope variations observed in western European paleoclimate records may be partly explained by different, more southern moisture sources on top of changes in seasonal temperatures.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Simulated temperatures agree with proxy data; precipitation is biased but GI‐10 versus GS‐9 differences are well captured〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The stadial winter jet stream is intensified and shifted southward, consistent with dominant southwesterly/cyclonic flow in western Europe〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Oxygen isotope signal changes at western European proxy sites may be explained not only by temperature but also by varying moisture sources〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: NRDIO
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Dansgaard‐Oeschger cycle ; regional atmospheric dynamics ; regional climate modeling ; continental paleoclimate proxy ; Europe
    Language: English
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2024-01-02
    Description: Projections of precipitation extremes over land are crucial for socioeconomic risk assessments, yet model discrepancies limit their application. Here we use a pattern-filtering technique to identify low-frequency changes in individual members of a multimodel ensemble to assess discrepancies across models in the projected pattern and magnitude of change. Specifically, we apply low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to the intensity and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over land in 21 CMIP-6 models. LFCA brings modest but statistically significant improvements in the agreement between models in the spatial pattern of projected change, particularly in scenarios with weak greenhouse forcing. Moreover, we show that LFCA facilitates a robust identification of the rates at which increasing precipitation extremes scale with global temperature change within individual ensemble members. While these rates approximately match expectations from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation on average across models, individual models exhibit considerable and significant differences. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that these differences contribute to uncertainty in the magnitude of projected change at least as much as differences in the climate sensitivity. Last, we compare these scaling rates with those identified from observational products, demonstrating that virtually all climate models significantly underestimate the rates at which increases in precipitation extremes have scaled with global temperatures historically. Constraining projections with observations therefore amplifies the projected intensification of precipitation extremes as well as reducing the relative error of their distribution.
    Language: English
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2024-01-02
    Description: Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) moves atmospheric carbon to geological or land-based sinks. In a first-best setting, the optimal use of CDR is achieved by a removal subsidy that equals the optimal carbon tax and marginal damages. We derive second-best policy rules for CDR subsidies and carbon taxes when no global carbon price exists but a national government implements a unilateral climate policy. We find that the optimal carbon tax differs from an optimal CDR subsidy because of carbon leakage and a balance of resource trade effect. First, the optimal removal subsidy tends to be larger than the carbon tax because of lower supply-side leakage on fossil resource markets. Second, net carbon exporters exacerbate this wedge to increase producer surplus of their carbon resource producers, implying even larger removal subsidies. Third, net carbon importers may set their removal subsidy even below their carbon tax when marginal environmental damages are small, to appropriate producer surplus from carbon exporters.
    Language: English
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2024-01-09
    Description: This study investigates the adjustment of large-scale localized buoyancy anomalies in mid-latitude regions and the nonlinear evolution of associated condensation patterns in both adiabatic and moist-convective environments. This investigation is carried out utilizing the two-layer idealized moist-convective thermal rotating shallow water (mcTRSW) model. Our investigation reveals that the presence of a circular positive potential temperature anomaly in the lower layer initiates an anticyclonic high-pressure rotation, accompanied by a negative buoyancy anomaly in the upper layer, resulting in an anisotropic northeast–southwest tilted circulation of heat flux. The evolution of eddy heat fluxes, such as poleward heat flux, energy, and meridional elongation of the buoyancy field, heavily depends on the perturbation's strength, size, and vertical structure. The heatwave initiates atmospheric instability, leading to precipitation systems such as rain bands and asymmetric latent heat release due to moist convection in a diabatic environment. This creates a comma cloud pattern in the upper troposphere and a comma-shaped buoyancy anomaly in the lower layer, accompanied by the emission of inertia gravity waves. The southern and eastern sectors of the buoyancy anomaly show an upward flux, generating a stronger cross-equatorial flow and inertia-gravity waves in a southward and eastward direction. Furthermore, the simulations reveal a similar asymmetric pattern of total condensed liquid water content distribution, accompanied by the intensification of moist convection as rain bands. This intensification is more pronounced in barotropic structures than in baroclinic configurations with stagnant upper layers. This study highlights the importance of considering moist convection and its effects on atmospheric and oceanic flows in mid-latitude regions, as well as the role of buoyancy anomalies in generating heatwaves and precipitation patterns.
    Language: English
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2024-01-09
    Description: Here, we present BASD-CMIP6-PE, a high-resolution (1d, 10 km) climate dataset for Peru and Ecuador based on the bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections of 10 GCMs. This dataset includes both historical simulations (1850–2014) and future projections (2015–2100) for precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The BASD-CMIP6-PE climate data were generated using the trend-preserving Bias Adjustment and Statistical Downscaling (BASD) method. The BASD performance was evaluated using observational data and through hydrological modeling across Peruvian and Ecuadorian river basins in the historical period. Results demonstrated that BASD significantly reduced biases between CMIP6-GCM simulations and observational data, enhancing long-term statistical representations, including mean and extreme values, and seasonal patterns. Furthermore, the hydrological evaluation highlighted the appropriateness of adjusted GCM simulations for simulating streamflow, including mean, low, and high flows. These findings underscore the reliability of BASD-CMIP6-PE in assessing regional climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, and hydrological extremes.
    Language: English
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: The article evidences to what extent rights-based climate litigation is applied as a strategy to enhance the recognition and protection of climate-induced migrants. Adopting a deduc- tive approach and desk review, the study, illustrates how climate-induced migration has been addressed by International Human Rights Law, with some attention also paid to the growing application of the right to a safe climate and climate justice. The study highlights the duties of both States and private actors in tackling the emerging climate crisis under the human rights agenda. Relevant responsibilities are framed in particular within the scope of rights-based litiga- tion dealing with the topic. We present an analysis of litigation linked to climate-induced migration that was filed before distinct international, regional, and national jurisdictions and, in doing so, propose a chronology of cases—structured in three generations—of how population movements as a result of climate change have been discussed by judicial means. The first generation relates to cases that consider the issue from the perspective of protection—in both national, regional, and international jurisdictions. The second generation emerges within general climate litigation claims, involving commitments linked to the climate agenda. In addition to raising (forced) pop- ulation movements as one of the expected impacts of climate change, such cases frequently call upon a rights-based approach. The third generation encompasses rights-based cases cen- tred on climate-induced migrants per se. The strengths and limitations of rights-based litigation to respond to the topic are finally highlighted: we conclude that litigation remains a blunt but not unpromising tool to respond to climate-induced migration. Generic references to the risk of (forced) population movements largely prevail; nevertheless, strategic rights-based litigation can facilitate the visibility of climate-induced migrants to the international community, fostering the development of legal solutions in the longer term.
    Language: English
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2024-01-10
    Description: Introduction: Behavioural interventions could improve caregivers’ food hygiene practices in low-resource settings. So far, evidence is limited to small-scale and short-term studies, and few have evaluated the long-term maintenance of promoted behaviours. We evaluated the effect of a relatively large-scale behaviour change intervention on medium and long-term maintenance of household food hygiene practices in Bangladesh. - Methods: We analyse a secondary outcome of the Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) cluster-randomised trial and its sub-study Food Hygiene to reduce Environmental Enteric Dysfunction (FHEED), conducted in Habiganj district, Sylhet division, Bangladesh. The FAARM trial used a 1:1 parallel arm design and included 2705 women in 96 settlements: 48 intervention and 48 control. Women in the intervention settlements received training in homestead gardening, poultry rearing and nutrition over three years (2015–2018), complemented by an eight-month (mid-2017 to early-2018) behaviour change component on food hygiene using motivational drivers. Nested within the FAARM trial, the FHEED sub-study evaluated several outcomes along the hygiene pathway. For this article, we evaluated household food hygiene behaviours by analysing structured observation data collected in two cross-sectional surveys, four and 16 months after the food hygiene promotion ended, from two independent subsamples of FAARM women with children aged 6–18 months. We assessed intervention effects on food hygiene practices using mixed-effects logistic regression, accounting for clustering. In exploratory analyses, we further assessed behaviour patterns – how often critical food hygiene behaviours were performed individually, in combination and consistently across events. - Results: Based on the analysis of 524 complementary feeding and 800 food preparation events in households from 571 participant women, we found that intervention households practised better food hygiene than controls four months post-intervention, with somewhat smaller differences after 16 months. Overall, the intervention positively affected food hygiene, particularly around child feeding: using soap for handwashing (odds ratio 5·8, 95% CI 2·2–15·2), cleaning feeding utensils (3·8, 1·9–7·7), and cooking fresh/reheating food (1·8, 1·1–2·8). However, the simultaneous practice of several behaviours was rare, occurring in only 10% of feeding events (intervention: 15%; control: 4%), and the practice of safe food hygiene behaviours was inconsistent between events. - Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a motivational behaviour change intervention encouraged caregivers to maintain certain safe food hygiene practices in a rural setting. However, substantial physical changes in the household environment are likely needed to make these behaviours habitual.
    Language: English
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2024-01-11
    Language: English
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2024-01-11
    Description: Increasing renewable sources in the energy mix is essential to mitigate climate change, not least in countries where the energy demand is likely to rise over the coming decades to reduce or even skip durations of time where fossils dominate. For Africa, solar photovoltaic (PV) and inland wind energy, combined with hydropower, provide significant and untapped potentials, whereas trends and robustness measures need further investigation. This study aims to gain insight into distributed trends in solar PV and wind energy potentials over Africa. This study employs relevant metrics, including relative change, model agreement, robustness, bias, and absolute levels for every available model combination and two climate scenarios, with energy planning purposes in mind. The study finds that regional climate models were the primary control of spatio-temporal patterns over their driving global climate model. Solar PV potentials show more coherence between models, a lower bias and general high potentials in most African regions than wind potentials. Favourable locations for inland wind energy include mainly the regions of greater Sahara and the Horn region. For wind and solar potentials combined, scattered locations within Sahara stand out as the most favourable across scenarios and periods. The analysis of minimum energy potentials shows stable conditions despite low potentials in certain regions. The results demonstrate a potential for solar and wind power in most of the African regions and highlight why solar and wind power or synergies of energy mix should be considered for local energy planning and storage solutions.
    Language: English
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2024-01-11
    Description: This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.
    Language: English
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2024-01-17
    Description: Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.
    Language: English
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2024-01-17
    Description: Passenger transport has significant externalities, including carbon emissions and air pollution. Public health research has identified additional social gains from active travel, due to the health benefits of physical exercise. Per mile, these benefits greatly exceed the external costs from car use. We introduce active travel into an optimal fuel taxation model and characterize analytically the second-best optimal fuel tax. We find that accounting for active travel benefits increases the optimal fuel tax by 44% in the USA and 38% in the UK. Fuel taxes should be implemented jointly with other policies aimed at increasing the uptake of active travel.
    Language: English
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2024-01-18
    Description: Forestation efforts are accelerating across the globe in the fight against global climate change, in order to restore biodiversity, and to improve local livelihoods. Yet, so far the non-local effects of forestation on rainfall have largely remained a blind spot. Here we build upon emerging work to propose that targeted rainfall enhancement may also be considered in the prioritization of forestation. We show that the tools to achieve this are rapidly becoming available, but we also identify drawbacks and discuss which further developments are still needed to realize robust assessments of the rainfall effects of forestation in the face of climate change. Forestation programs may then mitigate not only global climate change itself, but also its adverse effects in the form of drying.
    Language: English
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  • 46
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    In:  Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
    Publication Date: 2024-01-18
    Description: Interest rates are central determinants of saving and investment decisions. Costly financial intermediation distorts these price signals by creating a spread between deposit and loan rates. This study investigates how bank spreads affect climate policy in its ambition to redirect capital. We identify various channels through which interest spreads affect carbon emissions in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Interest rate spreads increase abatement costs due to the higher relative price for capital-intensive carbon-free energy but they also tend to reduce emissions due to lower overall economic growth. For the global average interest rate spread of 5.1pp, global warming increases by 0.2°C compared to the frictionless economy. For a given temperature target to be achieved, interest rate spreads necessitate substantially higher carbon taxes. When spreads arise from imperfect competition in the intermediation sector, the associated welfare costs can be reduced by clean energy subsidies or even eliminated by economy-wide investment subsidies.
    Language: English
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2024-01-18
    Description: Aerosol effects on cloud properties are notoriously difficult to disentangle from variations driven by meteorological factors. Here, a machine learning model is trained on reanalysis data and satellite retrievals to predict cloud microphysical properties, as a way to illustrate the relative importance of meteorology and aerosol, respectively, on cloud properties. It is found that cloud droplet effective radius can be predicted with some skill from only meteorological information, including estimated air mass origin and cloud top height. For ten geographical regions the mean coefficient of determination is 0.3813 and normalised root-mean square error 25%. The machine learning model thereby performs better than a reference linear regression model, and a model predicting the climatological mean. A gradient boosting regression performs on par with a neural network regression model. Adding aerosol information as input to the model improves its skill somewhat, but the difference is small and the direction of the influence of changing aerosol burden on cloud droplet effective radius is not consistent across regions, and thereby also not always consistent with what is expected from cloud brightening.
    Language: English
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  • 48
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    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    In:  Ariadne-Analyse
    Publication Date: 2024-01-18
    Description: Der Ausbau Erneuerbarer Energien bedarf eines breiten Engagements lokaler Ak­teure. Kommunen mangelt es jedoch häufig an ausreichenden Ressourcen und die Rolle von Beratungs­stellen und Vermittlern wird daher immer wichtiger.
    Language: German
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  • 49
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    A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: Madagascar has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the country’s agricultural sector. This study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of two potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision-makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Madagascar. The impact assessment consists of several steps, including climate projections based on three emissions scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3- RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario), modelling and comparison of future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (coffee, vanilla, pepper) and an assessment of yield changes in peanut production under future climate conditions. Further, the study outlines gendered challenges and support requirements in national adaptation planning. The simulation results show that Robusta coffee is less sensitive to heat compared to Arabica coffee. The suitable area for Robusta coffee remains almost stable under changing climate conditions, while the suitability of Arabica coffee is projected decrease by 7 % on a national level. Simulation results indicate a slight increase in suitability for vanilla production, particularly in the main growing region Sava, but also in Atsimo Atsinanana, thus safeguarding an important source of income for local farmers and guaranteeing the sustainability of Madagascar´s most valuable export product. Furthermore, climate change is projected to have a rather low impact on the agro-climatic suitability of pepper production. When averaged across Madagascar, the decrease in suitability is less than 1 %, however, there are some noteworthy differences across regions and scenarios. The results for the process-based peanut modelling show that rising temperature and reduced rainfall amounts are likely to decrease peanut yields across Madagascar. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 is projected to offset these negative impacts. The study furthermore evaluated the efficiency of two adaptation strategies, namely the use of locally adapted crop varieties and flexible planting dates. The simulation results suggest that the traditional cultivar Kanety is more suited in future climate change scenarios since yields for Kanety are generally higher than those of the improved variety Fleur 11. Interestingly, opting for flexible planting dates as opposed to a fixed planting date does not result in enhanced yields. This result underlines the importance of regional crop calendars to determine optimal sowing dates. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Madagascar.
    Language: English , French
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  • 50
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    In:  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: The psychology of the individual is continuously changing in nature, which has a significant influence on the evolutionary dynamics of populations. To study the influence of the continuously changing psychology of individuals on the behavior of populations, in this article, we consider the game transitions of individuals in evolutionary processes to capture the changing psychology of individuals in reality, where the game that individuals will play shifts as time progresses and is related to the transition rates between different games. Besides, the individual’s reputation is taken into account and utilized to choose a suitable neighbor for the strategy updating of the individual. Within this model, we investigate the statistical number of individuals staying in different game states and the expected number fits well with our theoretical results. Furthermore, we explore the impact of transition rates between different game states, payoff parameters, the reputation mechanism, and different time scales of strategy updates on cooperative behavior, and our findings demonstrate that both the transition rates and reputation mechanism have a remarkable influence on the evolution of cooperation. Additionally, we examine the relationship between network size and cooperation frequency, providing valuable insights into the robustness of the model.
    Language: English
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: We demonstrate an indirect, rather than direct, role of quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves in a summer weather extreme. We find that there was an interplay between a persistent, amplified large-scale atmospheric circulation state and soil moisture feedbacks as a precursor for the June 2021 Pacific Northwest “Heat Dome” event. An extended resonant planetary wave configuration prior to the event created an antecedent soil moisture deficit that amplified lower atmospheric warming through strong nonlinear soil moisture feedbacks, favoring this unprecedented heat event.
    Language: English
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: In recent years, several global events have severely disrupted economies and social structures, undermining confidence in the resilience of modern societies. Examples include the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought unprecedented health challenges and economic disruptions, and the emergence of geopolitical tensions and conflicts that have further strained international relations and economic stability. While empirical evidence on the dynamics and drivers of past societal collapse is mounting, a process-based understanding of these dynamics is still in its infancy. Here, we aim to identify and illustrate the underlying drivers of such societal instability or even collapse. The inspiration for this work is Joseph Tainter’s theory of the “collapse of complex societies”, which postulates that the complexity of societies increases as they solve problems, leading to diminishing returns on complexity investments and ultimately to collapse. In this work, we abstract this theory into a low-dimensional and stylized model of two classes of networked agents, hereafter referred to as “laborers” and “administrators”. We numerically model the dynamics of societal complexity, measured as the fraction of “administrators”, which was assumed to affect the productivity of connected energy-producing “laborers”. We show that collapse becomes increasingly likely as the complexity of the model society continuously increases in response to external stresses that emulate Tainter’s abstract notion of problems that societies must solve. We also provide an analytical approximation of the system’s dominant dynamics, which matches well with the numerical experiments, and use it to study the influence on network link density, social mobility and productivity. Our work advances the understanding of social-ecological collapse and illustrates its potentially direct link to an ever-increasing societal complexity in response to external shocks or stresses via a self-reinforcing feedback.
    Language: English
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: Die Entscheidung für den Austausch oder Ersatz eines Heizsystems ist eine, die für mehr als ein Jahrzehnt getroffen wird. Oftmals berücksichtigen Verbraucherinnen und Verbraucher dabei vor allem die einmal anfallende Einbau-Investition. Die Kosten über den gesamten Lebenszyklus sind deutlich schwerer zu ermitteln und unsicher, daher werden sie häufig zu wenig in die finanzielle Überlegung mit einbezogen. In einer neuen Analyse haben Ariadne-Forschende berechnet, wie hoch unterm Strich die Kosten für verschiedene Heiztechniken in bestehenden Wohngebäuden über einen Zeitraum von 20 Jahren angesichts zukünftiger Energieträgerpreise sowie der zu erwartenden CO2-Preisentwicklung sind.
    Language: German
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: Understanding wildfire dynamics in space and over time is critical for wildfire control and management. In this study, fire data from European Space Agency (ESA) MODIS fire product (ESA/CCI/FireCCI/5_1) with ≥ 70% confidence level was used to characterise spatial and temporal variation in fire frequency in Zimbabwe between 2001 and 2020. Results showed that burned area increased by 16% from 3,689 km2 in 2001 to 6,130 km2 in 2011 and decreased in subsequent years reaching its lowest in 2020 (1,161km2). Over, the 20-year period, an average of 40,086.56 km2 of land was burned annually across the country. In addition, results of the regression analysis based on Generalised Linear Model illustrated that soil moisture, wind speed and temperature significantly explained variation in burned area. Moreover, the four-year lagged annual rainfall was positively related with burned area suggesting that some parts in the country (southern and western) are characterised by limited herbaceous production thereby increasing the time required for the accumulation of sufficient fuel load. The study identified major fire hotspots in Zimbabwe through the integration of remotely sensed fire data within a spatially analytical framework. This can provide useful insights into fire evolution which can be used to guide wildfire control and management in fire prone ecosystems. Moreover, resource allocation for fire management and mitigation can be optimised through targeting areas most affected by wildfires especially during the dry season where wildfire activity is at its peak.
    Language: English
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: Shifting cultivation will face increasing pressure from erosion-related land degradation caused by rising cultivation intensities and climate change. However, empirical knowledge about future trends of soil erosion and thus land degradation in shifting cultivation systems is limited. We use the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to first explore the combined effects of climate change and agricultural intensification on soil erosion of uphill shifting cultivation systems, using six surveyed soil profiles. We assess interactions between climate change, the length of the fallow period, and slope inclinations for a near (2021–2050) and far (2071–2100) future period, considering three climate scenarios, five climate models, fallow periods between one and 20 years, and slopes between five and 70% steepness. Our results show a significant nonlinear relationship between global warming and erosion. Until the end of the century, erosion is estimated to increase by a factor of 1.2, 2.2, and 3.1 under the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, compared with the historical baseline (1985–2014). Combined effects from climate change, fallow length, and slope inclination indicate that steep slopes require longer fallow periods, with an increase of slope from 5% to 10% multiplying the required fallow length by a mean factor of 2.5, and that fallow periods will need to be extended under higher global warming if erosion rates are to remain at current levels. These findings are novel as they link climate change effects on shifting cultivation systems to different slopes and fallow regimes, making an important contribution to understanding future erosion dynamics of traditional smallholder production systems in mountainous terrain, with relevant implications for policies on agricultural intensification.
    Language: English
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  • 56
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    In:  Climate of the Past
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: In recent decades, numerous paleoclimate records and results of model simulations provided strong support to the astronomical theory of Quaternary glacial cycles formulated in its modern form by Milutin Milankovitch. At the same time, new findings revealed that the classical Milankovitch theory is unable to explain a number of important facts, such as the change of the dominant periodicity of glacial cycles from 41 kyr to 100 kyr about one million years ago. This transition was also accompanied by an increase in the amplitude and asymmetry of the glacial cycles. Here, based on the results of a hierarchy of models and data analysis, a framework of the extended (generalized) version of the Milankovitch theory is presented. To illustrate the main elements of this theory, a simple conceptual model of glacial cycles was developed using the results of an Earth system model CLIMBER-2. This conceptual model explicitly assumes the multistability of the climate-cryosphere system and the instability of the “supercritical” ice sheets. Using this model, it is shown that Quaternary glacial cycles can be successfully reproduced as the strongly-nonlinear response of the Earth system to the orbital forcing, where 100 kyr cyclicity originates from the phase-locking of the precession and obliquity-forced glacial cycles to the corresponding eccentricity cycle. The eccentricity influences glacial cycles solely through its amplitude modulation of the precession component of orbital forcing, while the long time scale of the late Quaternary glacial cycles is determined by the time required for ice sheets to reach their critical size. The postulates used to construct this conceptual model were justified using analysis of relevant physical and biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. In particular, the role of climate-ice sheet-carbon cycle feedback in shaping and globalization of glacial cycles is discussed. The reasons for the instability of the large northern ice sheets and the mechanisms of the Earth system escape from the “glacial trap” via a set of strongly nonlinear processes are presented. It is also shown that the transition from the 41 kyr to the 100 kyr world about one million years ago can be explained by a gradual increase in the critical size of ice sheets, which in turn is related to the gradual removal of terrestrial sediments from the northern continents. The implications of this nonlinear paradigm for understanding Quaternary climate dynamics and the remaining knowledge gaps are finally discussed.
    Language: English
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: Forage supply and soil organic carbon storage are two important ecosystem functions of permanent grasslands, which are determined by climatic conditions, management and functional diversity. However, functional diversity is not independent of climate and management, and it is important to understand the role of functional diversity and these dependencies for ecosystem functions of permanent grasslands. Especially since functional diversity may play a key role in mediating impacts of changing conditions. Large-scale ecosystem models are used to assess ecosystem functions within a consistent framework for multiple climate and management scenarios. However, large-scale models of permanent grasslands rarely consider functional diversity. We implemented a representation of functional diversity based on the CSR theory and the global spectrum of plant form and function into the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model forming LPJmL-CSR. Using a Bayesian calibration method, we parameterised new plant functional types and used these to assess forage supply, soil organic carbon storage and community composition of three permanent grassland sites. These are a temperate grassland, a hot and a cold steppe for which we simulated several management scenarios with different defoliation intensities and resource limitations. LPJmL-CSR captured the grassland dynamics well under observed conditions and showed improved results for forage supply and/or SOC compared to LPJmL 5.3 at three grassland sites. Furthermore, LPJmL-CSR was able to reproduce the trade-offs associated with the global spectrum of plant form and function and similar strategies emerged independent of the site specific conditions (e.g. the C- and R-PFTs were more resource exploitative than S-PFTs). Under different resource limitations, we observed a shift of the community composition. At the hot steppe for example, irrigation led to a more balanced community composition with similar C-, S- and R-PFT shares of above-ground biomass. Our results show, that LPJmL-CSR allows for explicit analysis of the adaptation of grassland vegetation to changing conditions while explicitly considering functional diversity. The implemented mechanisms and trade-offs are universally applicable paving the way for large-scale application. Applying LPJmL-CSR for different climate change and functional diversity scenarios may generate a range of future grassland productivity.
    Language: English
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework—the planetary commons—which differs from the global commons framework by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.
    Language: English
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: Despite the cost reductions of green hydrogen, it is uncertain when cost parity with blue hydrogen will be achieved. Beyond technology costs, electricity and natural gas prices, hydrogen’s competitiveness will be increasingly determined by carbon costs or regulation associated with its life-cycle emissions. Theoretically and numerically, we demonstrate that higher residual emissions of blue hydrogen can close its competitive window much earlier than the cost parity of green hydrogen suggests. In regions where natural gas prices remain substantially higher (∼40 EUR/MWh) than before the energy crisis, such a window is narrow or has already closed. While blue hydrogen could potentially bridge the scarcity of green hydrogen, uncertainties about the beginning and end of blue hydrogen competitiveness may hinder investments. In contrast, in regions where natural gas prices drop to ≤15 EUR/MWh, blue hydrogen can remain competitive until at least 2040, contingent upon achieving rigorous CO2 capture (〉90%) and negligible methane leakage rates (〈1%).
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: Background: Rice predominate diets are common in Bangladesh, leading to widespread nutritional deficiencies. Objective: The Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh, evaluated a homestead food production intervention implemented 2015-2018 through Helen Keller International, aiming to improve child growth (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT025-05711). We estimate the impact on women's and children's dietary diversity, a secondary trial objective. Methods: We calculated dietary diversity for women and children using standard measures from data collected throughout the trial (2015-2020). Our analysis included 28,282 observations of 2,701 women (out of 2,705 enrolled) and 17,445 observations of their 3,257 children (aged 6-37 months) in 96 settlements, 48 of which received the intervention. We estimated the intervention's impact on dietary diversity using multilevel regression, controlling for seasonality, baseline dietary diversity, and clustering by settlement and repeated measures. Results: Dietary diversity scores and the proportion of women and children classified as consuming minimally diverse diets varied greatly by season, peaking in May/June with 5.3 food groups for women (out of ten) and 3.8 food groups for children (out of seven). Over the entire intervention and post78 intervention period, women's and children's odds of consuming a minimally diverse diet nearly doubled (OR 1.8, p〈0.001, for both). This benefit was barely present in the first year of the intervention, increased in the second, and peaked in the last intervention year (OR 2.4 for women, OR 2.5 for children, both p〈0.001) before settling at around double the odds in post-intervention years (p〈0.001). Dietary improvement was observed throughout the 82 year for both women and children and driven through incremental increases in nearly all food groups. Conclusions: The nutrition-sensitive agriculture intervention successfully increased dietary diversity in women and children, and these impacts persisted after the project closed, including during the COVID-19 lockdown period.
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  • 61
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    In:  International Journal of Robust and Nonlinear Control
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: This article investigates the group consensus via pinning control for continuous-time first-order and second-order multi-agent systems (MASs) with reference states. For the group consensus of first-order MASs, the dependence between the agent's state and the control input is considered. For second-order MASs, group consensus control without the velocity information of agents is considered. Instead, the virtual velocity estimation controller is designed. Meanwhile, for the designed control protocols, not only under fixed topology, but also under switching topology are considered. It is demonstrated that group consensus could be obtained under the proposed control protocols by using graph theory and stability theory. Finally, a series of numerical examples are provided to verify the control performance of the propounded control protocols.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the Earth's tipping elements and may lose stability under ongoing climate change. Recently a decrease in tropical rainforest resilience has been identified globally from remotely sensed vegetation data. However, the underlying theory assumes a Gaussian distribution of forest disturbances, which is different from most observed forest stressors such as fires, deforestation, or windthrow. Those stressors often occur in power-law-like distributions and can be approximated by α-stable Lévy noise. Here, we show that classical critical slowing down indicators to measure changes in forest resilience are robust under such power-law disturbances. To assess the robustness of critical slowing down indicators, we simulate pulse-like perturbations in an adapted and conceptual model of a tropical rainforest. We find few missed early warnings and few false alarms are achievable simultaneously if the following steps are carried out carefully: First, the model must be known to resolve the timescales of the perturbation. Second, perturbations need to be filtered according to their absolute temporal autocorrelation. Third, critical slowing down has to be assessed using the non-parametric Kendall-τ slope. These prerequisites allow for an increase in the sensitivity of early warning signals. Hence, our findings imply improved reliability of the interpretation of empirically estimated rainforest resilience through critical slowing down indicators.
    Language: English
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: The inconsistent pattern of precipitation, a shift in the seasonality of river flows, and the early onset of snow and glacier melt in recent decades across river basins of High Mountain Asia (HMA) has compelled us to further investigate future variations in sources of runoff under projected climate change scenarios. This will help in determining the timing and magnitude of runoff components and this will help in management of future water resources. The current study employed the University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBC WM) to estimate the spatiotemporal variations in simulated runoff components (i.e. snowmelt, glacier melt, rainfall-runoff, and baseflow) and their relative contribution to total runoff of Gilgit River regarding the baseline period (1981–2010) in near (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) under low (SSP1), medium (SSP2) and high (SSP5) emission scenarios. A significant increase in the magnitude of mean annual temperature and precipitation is expected in the near future (2021–2050) than far future (2071–2100) under most SSPs. Moreover, high-altitude stations of the Gilgit River basin are expected to experience more warming in the near and far future than low altitudes under all SSPs. On average, regarding the baseline period, the simulated runoff is projected to increase in the near (27%, 30%, and 33%) and far future (30%, 53%, and 91%) under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5, respectively. Moreover, an early onset of snow/glacier melting is predicted in the far future due to an increase in summer air temperature and a decline in winter (DJF) precipitation. Besides, the rise in high altitude temperature is expected to cause the melting of snow/glaciers even above 6000 m elevation in the far future.
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: In this report, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change recommends a series of actions to put the EU on track towards climate neutrality. Based on an assessment of more than 80 indicators, the Advisory Board found that more efforts are needed across all sectors to achieve the EU climate objectives from 2030 to 2050, and particularly in buildings, transport, agriculture and forestry. The Advisory Board acknowledges the potential of the Fit for 55 policy package to speed up EU’s decarbonisation, but warns that additional measures are imperative if the EU is to achieve its climate neutrality objective by 2050 at the latest. With this in mind, the Advisory Board outlines 13 key recommendations for a more effective implementation and design of the EU climate policy framework. This will require action in the coming years, both to effectively implement recently agreed legislation and to start preparations for the post-2030 climate policy framework.
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: Eine Teilung des deutschen Marktgebietes würde die Marktwerte erneuerbarer Energien beeinflussen. Wind und Photovoltaik (PV) im Süden Deutschlands würden an Wert gewinnen, während Erneuerbare im Norden Erlöse einbüßen würden. Bei einer auch zukünftig stärkeren Konzentration von erneuerbaren Energien im Norden bedeutet dies insgesamt einen höheren Förderbedarf für PV – Wind wäre trotz niedriger Marktwerte in den meisten Regionen wirtschaftlich. Wenn eine regionale Steuerung erreicht werden soll, müsste die auszuzahlende Förderung für neue PV-Anlagen anhand des zonenübergreifenden Referenzmarktwertes berechnet werden. Durchschnittliche Börsenstrompreise würden durch eine Gebotszonenteilung im Süden Deutschlands leicht angehoben und im Norden gesenkt, die Effekte auf Endkundenpreise und damit verbundene Anreize zur Standortwahl von Industrieunternehmen sind allerdings als gering einzuschätzen.
    Language: German
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2024-02-01
    Description: Deep, rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to limit future global temperature increases to 1·5°C above pre-industrial levels, but current progress is inadequate to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and to reduce future risks from climate change. Many actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions can also deliver near-term health co-benefits, for example from reduced air pollution, consumption of healthy diets, and increased physical activity. High-quality evidence on the type and magnitude of co-benefits that can be realised and improved knowledge of how to promote the implementation of such actions can support progress towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Lancet Pathfinder Commission was established to collate and assess the evidence on the near-term health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation, including both modelling studies and evaluated implemented actions. The Commission's aim is to assess the potential and achieved magnitude of the benefits for health and climate of different mitigation actions and, where possible, the factors facilitating or impeding implementation.
    Language: English
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2024-02-01
    Description: The HERA high-resolution pan-European hydrological reanalysis (1950-2020) dataset is the result of a joint effort between the JRC and PIK to produce a long term hydrological reanalysis with downscaled and bias-corrected climate reanalysis (ERA5-land) and dynamic socioeconomic inputs. It includes maps of climate variables (evaporation, evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature), dynamic socioeconomic inputs (land use, water demand, reservoir maps) required for hydrological modelling with LISFLOOD and river discharge with European extent at 1 arc minute (~1.5 km) grid resolution and 6-hourly time step. The dataset builds on recent development within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) associated to the EFAS v5.0 reanalysis (http://data.europa.eu/89h/76b4b9de-a5c6-4344-8d88-c4bed7752ce3), notably the LISFLOOD static and parameters maps for Europe (http://data.europa.eu/89h/f572c443-7466-4adf-87aa-c0847a169f23) and the EMO (European Meteorological Observations) dataset (http://data.europa.eu/89h/0bd84be4-cec8-4180-97a6-8b3adaac4d26). HERA also benefits from major improvements to the open-source hydrological model LISFLOOD and a new model calibration. Furthermore, for ungauged catchments, a parameter regionalization was performed transferring parameter sets from donor catchments based on spatial and climatological proximity to ensure the best possible simulation of river flows for all catchments in the European domain. Along with improved resolution and modelling performances, the length of the modelled period (71 years) and the inclusion of dynamic socioeconomic conditions enables the analysis of hydrological dynamics related to extremes, human influences, and climate change at a continental scale while keeping local relevance. Detailed technical information on the dataset can be found in the associated scientific article (under review).
    Language: English
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2024-02-02
    Description: This study examines how the expansion of mobile phone networks affects rural development in Mongolia. The database is a detailed household panel survey with four waves implemented in western Mongolia, spanning the 2012-2021 period, which we combine with data on mobile phone towers. Our identification strategy exploits the uneven roll-out of mobile phone networks across rural areas over time. Using a two-way fixed effects approach, we show that network expansion strongly and significantly increases total household income of pastoralist households. The effect is driven by increased income from agriculture, particularly by higher producer prices for animal byproducts, improved access to transfer income, and increased household mobility. The expansion of mobile phone networks decreases income diversification among pastoralists. Instead, households specialize in agriculture. While findings suggest that investments in telecommunication infrastructure can help rural households to sustain a livelihood in the agricultural sector, the specialization in agriculture may increase households’ vulnerability to climate change.
    Language: English
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2024-02-08
    Description: With ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the Greenland ice sheet approaches critical thresholds of inevitable, long-term mass loss. Future technologies might be able to efficiently remove CO2 from the atmosphere and thereby cool down our planet. We explore whether and to what extent a realization of this concept could lead to a regrowth of the Greenland ice sheet once it has partly melted. Using the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, emission pulses between 0 and 4000 GtC are released into the atmosphere, and 1 kyr, 2 kyr, and 5 kyr, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is reduced back to its pre-industrial value. We find that independent of a specific trajectory, once the southern part of the Greenland ice sheet has partly melted with a total mass loss of more than 0.4 m sea level equivalent, regrowth is inhibited. Uncertainties preclude determination of precise thresholds, but model results indicate that cumulative industrial-era emissions approaching 1000 to 1500 GtC and beyond increasingly risk irreversible mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. Once this threshold is passed, artificial atmospheric carbon removal would need to be utilised within the next centuries at massive scale. Beyond that, artificial atmospheric carbon removal has limited abilities to avoid long-term mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. In conclusion, keeping cumulative anthropogenic emissions below 1000 to 1500 GtC is the only safe way to avoid irreversible mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet.
    Language: English
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2024-02-08
    Description: Traditionally, power grids have relied on synchronous generators, large rotating masses, for energy supply and stability. Currently, renewable energy sources, connected via programmable machines called inverters, are beginning to take the lead. Understanding the changes of grid dynamics brought by these new actors is crucial for a successful energy transition. Modern power grids, with components like solar cells, wind parks and batteries, present a challenge in ensuring stability. To address this complexity, the authors introduce a universal model, offering a surprisingly simple yet robust representation of the entire grid. This model enables the description of systems with different agents through a rather simple system of differential equations. Using analytical tools from various fields, such as dynamical systems, networks, and control theory, it is expected to enable universal statements about the stability of large, interconnected power systems. As a demonstration, a control law is developed to stabilize the power grid in extreme conditions, ensuring a stable energy supply even as power grids become more complex.
    Language: English
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  • 72
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    In:  Physical Review E
    Publication Date: 2024-02-08
    Description: We study the dynamics of a piecewise-linear second-order delay differential equation that is representative of feedback systems with relays (switches) that actuate after a fixed delay. The system under study exhibits strong multirhythmicity, the coexistence of many stable periodic solutions for the same values of the parameters. We present a detailed study of these periodic solutions and their bifurcations. Starting from an integrodifferential model, we show how to reduce the system to a set of finite-dimensional maps. We then demonstrate that the parameter regions of existence of periodic solutions can be understood in terms of discontinuity-induced bifurcations and their stability is determined by smooth bifurcations. Using this technique, we are able to show that slowly oscillating solutions are always stable if they exist. We also demonstrate the coexistence of stable periodic solutions with quasiperiodic solutions.
    Language: English
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2024-02-08
    Description: Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere, or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While un- certainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades can neither be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5–2.0◦C, nor on shorter timescales if global warming would surpass 2.0◦C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies forward combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.
    Language: English
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2024-02-13
    Description: Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate change, the impacts of which can be felt across different sectors. In particular forests are threatened by rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and extreme weather events. Human activities like deforestation and land-use change further exacerbate climate impacts, increasing the risk of wildfires and reducing the potential of forests for carbon sequestration. However, forests and trees are of major importance for ecosystems and local communities, providing plant and animal habitat, protection against soil erosion, provision of sufficient water resources, wood for fuel and construction, and various non-timber products. In addition, climate change is increasingly impacting water resources through prolonged and more frequent droughts, leading to water scarcity, crop failures and food insecurity for millions of people in Ethiopia. At the same time, erratic and heavy precipitation events lead to increased instances of flooding and soil erosion, further compromising water availability and quality. In a similar way, soils are impacted by climate change, with temperature increases and shifting precipitation patterns leading to soil degradation and reduced soil fertility, making it harder for smallholder farmers to pursue agriculture as a livelihood. Forests and trees are particularly threatened by climate change. At the same time, they are key in both climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. Against this background, this policy brief discusses the potential of forests and trees in addressing climate change, specifically looking at natural forest regeneration as a mitigation strategy and at agroforestry as an adaptation strategy, highlighting the unique potential of forests and trees to achieve a dual benefit for climate action. Although these strategies are considered in greater detail, it should be noted that there is no single best mitigation or adaptation strategy, but rather different mutually complementing strategies. Mitigation describes efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as measures to enhance greenhouse gas sinks. Forest and tree-based mitigation options can be classified as efforts to maintain the remaining forest cover (reduce deforestation and degradation), and measures to increase forest cover (natural regeneration and reforestation) (Nabuurs et al., 2007). We briefly describe each strategy but focus on natural regeneration later on.
    Language: English
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2024-02-13
    Description: Agricultural sustainability faces challenges in the changing climate, particularly for rain-fed systems like those in Ethiopia. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and soil acidity on future crop potential, focusing on Ethiopia as a case study. The EcoCrop crop suitability model was parameterized and run for four key food crops in Ethiopia (teff, maize, barley and common wheat), under current and mid-century climate conditions. To assess the impacts of soil acidification on crop suitability, a simulation study was conducted by lowering the soil pH values by 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 and re-running the suitability model, comparing the changes in the area suitable for each crop. Our evaluation of the model, by comparing the modeled suitable areas with reference data, indicated that there was a good fit for all the four crops. Using default soil pH values, we project that there will be no significant changes in the suitability of maize, barley and wheat and an increase in the suitability of teff by the mid-century, as influenced by projected increases in rainfall in the country. Our results demonstrate a direct relationship between the lowering of soil pH and increasing losses in the area suitable for all crops, but especially for teff, barley and wheat. We conclude that soil acidification can have a strong impact on crop suitability in Ethiopia under climate change, and precautionary measures to avoid soil acidification should be a key element in the design of climate change adaptation strategies.
    Language: English
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2024-02-15
    Description: Die Energiewende sorgt für einen Paradigmenwechsel von einem grundlastbasierten zu einem flexiblen Stromsystem. Die zentralen Treiber für den zunehmenden Flexibilitätsbedarf sind die Stromerzeugung durch Wind und Sonne sowie die weiterhin bestehende unflexible Stromnachfrage, die gedeckt werden muss. Die vorliegende Studie analysiert, wie im Zeitverlauf bis zum Jahr 2045 der Flexibilitätsbedarf zunimmt und wie die Betriebsweisen der verschiedenen Technologien sich anpassen können. In der Studie wird auf das Energiesystemmodell REMod zurückgegriffen, mit dem eine Analyse über die intersektorale Flexibilität bis zum Jahr 2045 möglich ist. Für kurzfristige Flexibilität können in dieser Betrachtung zum Beispiel Batterien sowie Stromimporte und -exporte eingesetzt werden. Durch die Sektorenkopplung kann bei der Wärmebereitstellung in Gebäuden ebenfalls ein erheblich angepasstes Lastmanagement erfolgen. Ein höherer Anteil an Flexibilität kann jedoch durch Stromaufnahme in Elektrolyseanlagen und die Nutzung von Power-to-X-Kraftstoffen erfolgen. So können während längerer Dunkelflauten flexible Backup-Gasturbinen eingesetzt werden, um die Versorgungssicherheit zu gewährleisten. Um die notwendige Integration der Flexibilitäts-Technologien in den verschiedenen Märkten (insbesondere Strommarkt) und Sektoren voranzutreiben, müssen technische Voraussetzung, Marktregeln sowie Regulatorik in Bezug auf Bau und Betrieb so angepasst werden, dass die Technologien ihr Flexibilitätspotential bestmöglich ausspielen können.
    Language: German
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2024-02-15
    Description: Mit steigendem Anteil fluktuierender Erneuerbarer Energien im Stromsystem steigt auch der Bedarf an steuerbaren Kapazitäten, die Stromangebot und -nachfrage ausgleichen können, so genannte Flexibilitätstechnologien. In dieser Analyse wird der Nutzen von zehn verschiedenen Technologien, die Flexibilität bereitstellen können, für das deutsche Stromsystem im Jahr 2030 ermittelt. Die Nutzenanalyse macht deutlich, dass die Verschiebung von großen Energiemengen über einen längeren Zeitraum (saisonaler Ausgleich) den höchsten spezifischen Nutzen erreicht. Eine Schlüsseltechnologie für das Jahr 2030 sind daher Langzeitspeicher mit großen Speichervolumen, zum Beispiel in Form von Wasserstoff-Kavernenspeichern. Das Fehlen einer hierfür geeigneten Technologie würde zu hohen Effizienzverlusten führen. Die zweite Schlüsseltechnologie ist die steuerbare Leistung von Power-to-Heat1 in Wärmenetzen der allgemeinen Versorgung, die für den täglichen Ausgleich zwischen Nachfrage und erneuerbarer Erzeugung eingesetzt wird. Hier können allerdings auch andere nachfrageseitige Flexibilitäten eine ähnliche Funktion für das Stromsystem übernehmen. Die Analyse zeigt auch, dass die Erschließung der hier betrachteten Flexibilitätstechnologien, zum Beispiel durch den Abbau von regulatorischen Hemmnissen, bis zum Jahr 2030 für das Stromsystem von hoher Relevanz ist. Auch über die angenommenen Potentialgrenzen hinaus bieten insbesondere nachfrageseitige Flexibilitätstechnologien noch einen positiven Nutzen. Eine technologieoffene, marktbasierte Lösung zur Einbindung dieser Flexibilitäten könnte die unterschiedlichen Charakteristika, Nutzenniveaus sowie sich ändernde Rahmenbedingungen effizient berücksichtigen.
    Language: German
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2024-02-23
    Description: Shimmy dynamics of a dual-wheel nose landing gear system with torsional freeplay under stochastic lateral wind disturbances is studied. Dynamic characteristics of the deterministic case are numerically analysed, especially the shimmy of the landing gear through bifurcation analysis. Meanwhile, the influences of the freeplay nonlinearity on shimmy behaviours are examined in detail. We found that the freeplay leads to an enlargement of the shimmy area and an enhancement of the shimmy characteristics compared to the case without freeplay. Furthermore, impacts of stochastic lateral wind disturbances on the shimmy of the landing gear system are estimated via time history and recurrence plots. We find that the stochastic excitation enhances shimmy of the lateral bending direction. More interestingly, the stochastic excitation strengthens the effect of the freeplay nonlinearity, which causes random intermittent large-amplitude oscillations in the torsional direction. Our results show that the interaction between the freeplay nonlinearity and the random load induces a significant reduction in the critical shimmy velocity, which has an adverse impact on the stability of the nose landing gear of an aircraft. This work will provide an insightful guidance for the design of landing gear parameters in engineering practice.
    Language: English
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: This is the data repository to reproduce the scenario analysis of the paper "Complementary roles of direct and indirect electrification in pathways to a renewables-dominated European energy system".
    Language: English
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: A new resilient distributed secondary control for AC microgrids is studied based on event-triggered mechanisms and trust-reputation evaluation methods. When distributed generators (DGs) in a microgrid are subject to attacks, their transmitted state information would be tampered and thus affect the dynamics of normal generators. In order to isolate possible attacks, two types of trust evaluation metrics with different attack indices and time scales are designed, by which the performance of neighboring DGs can be assessed for specific practical demands. Based on the trust values of each neighbor, a reputation-propagation method is introduced at triggered time instants to determine whether a DG is under attack by comprehensively incorporating the opinion of mutual neighbors. The dynamic updating law of the communication edge weights is utilized with the derived reputation values. Based on this, a distributed Zeno-free event-triggered control protocols for voltage/frequency restoration and active power sharing are proposed. Sufficient conditions for picking proper control parameters are given in the main theorem. Lastly, the simulations are conducted in MATLAB/SimPowerSystems for several scenarios to validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.
    Language: English
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  • 81
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    Unknown
    In:  The Journal of Development Studies
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: This paper analyses poverty dynamics and checks for the existence of poverty traps among refugee and host communities living close to each other in Uganda. Although some non-linearities emerge in asset dynamics, there is convergence towards one stable equilibrium for the whole sample that suggests the existence of a structural poverty trap. However, households are quite heterogeneous: when analysing refugees and hosts separately, refugees converge to a lower own-group equilibrium than hosts. The household size and education are asset growth enablers for both communities. Noticeably, access to land, past history and social cohesion are also significant correlates of refugees’ asset dynamics. From a policy perspective, structural poverty traps are bad news, because standard anti-poverty interventions would not unlock the trap. Our results stress the need of more structural approaches aimed at promoting economic growth in the whole area where refugee and host communities live, targeting both communities.
    Language: English
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: Die schnelle und umfassende Emissionsminderung in der Energie- und Kreislaufwirtschaft ist der Schlüssel für die Begrenzung der Erderwärmung auf unter 2 °C. In Deutschland werden entsprechende Politiken seit den 1990er-Jahren verfolgt, allerdings erst in jüngster Vergangenheit mit dem notwendigen Nachdruck und der notwendigen Orientierung hin zu mehr Marktmechanismen. Wesentliche Handlungsfelder sind Energieeinsparung und erhöhte Energieeffizienz, Umstieg auf erneuerbare Energien, Bepreisung von Klimagasen sowie eine Reduzierung und Schließung der Stoffkreisläufe. In allen Handlungsfeldern sind Grundlagen geschaffen, es bleibt jedoch der Großteil des Weges noch zu gehen, um Klimaneutralität zu erreichen. Für einen schnellen Fortschritt spielen neben der Überwindung der technischen, ökonomischen und organisatorischen Herausforderungen auch Verteilungsfragen und die Einbettung in internationale Maßnahmen eine zunehmende Rolle.
    Language: German
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: Recent research on environmental inequality has extended its focus from ongoing pollution to legacy pollution by examining the geography of industrial brownfields, defined as non-productive, contaminated land. This article is the first extensive brownfield analysis for a European country from an environmental inequality perspective, exploiting the political momentum in France where brownfield restoration has become a national priority. We combine data on over 7200 industrial brownfields from the 2022 geodatabase ‘Cartofriches’ with socio-economic variables at the municipality level. We demonstrate that communities with higher percentages of foreign-born and unemployed persons are disproportionately more likely to be located in proximity to brownfields. The social gradient increases significantly in communities that host more than two brownfields. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship with income, with a turning point at approximately 25,600 annually. These findings are robust across urban and rural areas, though with regional differences. Our analysis provides entry points for restorative environmental justice considerations and has important implications for Europe's just transition and cohesion policies.
    Language: English
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: Precipitation is essential for food production in Sub-Saharan Africa, where more than 80 % of agriculture is rainfed. Although ∼40 % of precipitation in certain regions is recycled moisture from Africa's tropical rainforest, there needs to be more knowledge about how this moisture supports the continent's agriculture. In this study, we quantify all moisture sources for agrarian precipitation (African agricultural precipitationshed), the estimates of African rainforest's moisture contribution to agricultural precipitation, and the evaporation from agricultural land across the continent. Applying a moisture tracking model (UTRACK) and a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL), we find that the Congo rainforest (〉60 % tree cover) is a crucial moisture source for many agricultural regions. Although most of the rainforest acreage is in the DRC, many neighboring nations rely significantly on rainforest moisture for their rainfed agriculture, and even in remote places, rainforest moisture accounts for ∼10–20 % of agricultural water use. Given continuous deforestation and climate change, which impact rainforest areas and resilience, more robust governance for conserving the Congo rainforest is necessary to ensure future food production across multiple Sub-Saharan African countries.
    Language: English
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: Renewable electricity can facilitate climate change mitigation in the buildings, industry and transport sector via direct electrification or indirect electrification, that is, converting electricity to hydrogen-based fuels. While direct electrification is generally energy efficient, indirect electrification can partially build upon existing applications and infrastructure. However, their roles and relative importance have not been well researched in mitigation scenarios. Here, we derive plausible ranges for both strategies based on EU climate neutrality scenarios using the REMIND model. We find that by 2050 direct electrification is the dominant strategy with an electricity share of 42%–60% in final energy, while indirect electrification is necessary in hard-to-electrify sectors and contributes a share of 9%–26%. Our analysis highlights that policy makers should respect the distinct sectoral roles of both strategies by fostering an end-use transformation towards direct electrification while prioritizing hydrogen and synthetic fuels for applications where they are indispensable.
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: Weather forecasts can enhance the utilization of scientific irrigation scheduling tools, crucial for maximizing agricultural water use efficiency. This study employed quantitative weather forecasts of 3-, 7- and 14-day lead times from a weather application programming interface (API) to generate irrigation schedules using the AquaCrop-OSPy model for maize, cotton and sorghum under different regulated deficit irrigation scenarios. The study aimed to determine the suitability of forecast lengths for irrigation scheduling under varying pumping capacities of center pivots (114 m3h−1, 182 m3 h−1 and 250 m3 h−1) in the Texas High Plains and Rio Grande Basin regions, United States. A comparative analysis was carried out to evaluate the irrigation schedules and corresponding crop yields simulated using forecasted and observed weather data. Results indicated that using shorter forecast time allowed the crop model to capture more precise variations in weather patterns, however, shorter lead times also caused over-irrigation in some scenarios. Use of longer lead times tended to be less suitable for scheduling irrigation during water-sensitive growth stages. Center pivots with large pumping capacities and application rates benefited more from longer forecast lengths due to their ability to adapt to weather fluctuations. Unplanned irrigation application occurred in some instances, primarily attributed to uncertainties in weather forecasts and limitations of the crop model. The approach developed and evaluated in this study supports water conservation efforts by promoting scientific irrigation scheduling in weather-data-poor and low adoption regions.
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: The Nile basin is the second largest basin in Africa and one of the regions experiencing high climatic diversity with variability of precipitation and deteriorating water resources. As climate change is affecting most of the hydroclimatic variables across the world, this study assesses whether historical changes in river flow and sediment loads at selected gauges in the Nile basin can be attributed to climate change. An impact attribution approach is employed by constraining a process-based model with a set of factual and counterfactual climate forcing data for 69 years (1951–2019), from the impact attribution setup of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). To quantify the role of climate change, we use the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to identify trends and calculate the differences in long-term mean annual river flow and sediment load simulations between a model setup using factual and counterfactual climate forcing data. Results for selected river stations in the Lake Victoria basin show reasonable evidence of a long-term historical increase in river flows (two stations) and sediment load (one station), largely attributed to changes in climate. In contrast, within the Blue Nile and Main Nile basins, there is a slight decrease of river flows at four selected stations under factual climate, which can be attributed to climate change, but no significant changes in sediment load (one station). These findings show spatial differences in the impacts of climate change on river flows and sediment load in the study area for the historical period.
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: Correlation does not necessarily imply causation, and this is why causal methods have been developed to try to disentangle true causal links from spurious relationships. In our study, we use two causal methods, namely, the Liang–Kleeman information flow (LKIF) and the Peter and Clark momentary conditional independence (PCMCI) algorithm, and we apply them to four different artificial models of increasing complexity and one real-world case study based on climate indices in the Atlantic and Pacific regions. We show that both methods are superior to the classical correlation analysis, especially in removing spurious links. LKIF and PCMCI display some strengths and weaknesses for the three simplest models, with LKIF performing better with a smaller number of variables and with PCMCI being best with a larger number of variables. Detecting causal links from the fourth model is more challenging as the system is nonlinear and chaotic. For the real-world case study with climate indices, both methods present some similarities and differences at monthly timescale. One of the key differences is that LKIF identifies the Arctic Oscillation (AO) as the largest driver, while the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main influencing variable for PCMCI. More research is needed to confirm these links, in particular including nonlinear causal methods.
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.
    Language: English
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  • 90
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    RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
    In:  Ruhr Economic Papers
    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: Anticipatory humanitarian assistance is a novel approach to aid in the context of weather disasters, drawing on meteorological forecasts. Using a randomized study design, we analyze the impact of anticipatory cash transfers distributed to pastoralist households in Mongolia during an extreme winter event. We do not find overall effects on livestock assets, income, investments, or consumption across the study population. No heterogenous effects are found for different levels of disaster intensity. However, there is robust evidence that cash transfers benefited households with lower pre-treatment wealth. The paper concludes by highlighting practical challenges in evaluating (anticipatory) humanitarian interventions.
    Language: English
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: The Texas power grid on the Gulf Coast of the United States is frequently hit by tropical cyclones (TCs) causing widespread power outages, a risk that is expected to substantially increase under global warming. Here we introduce a new approach that combines a probabilistic line failure model with a network model of the Texas grid to simulate the spatio-temporal co-evolution of wind-induced failures of high-voltage transmission lines and the resulting cascading power outages from seven major historical TCs. The approach allows reproducing observed supply failures. In addition, compared to existing static approaches, it provides a notable advantage in identifying critical lines whose failure can trigger large supply shortages. We show that hardening only 1% of total lines can reduce the likelihood of the most destructive type of outage by a factor of between 5 and 20. The proposed modelling approach could represent a so far missing tool for identifying effective options to strengthen power grids against future TC strikes, even under limited knowledge.
    Language: English
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: Large gaps remain in our understanding of the vulnerability of specific animal taxa and regions to climate change, especially regarding extreme climate impact events. Here, we assess African apes, flagship and highly important umbrella species for sympatric biodiversity. We estimated past (1981–2010) and future exposure to climate change impacts across 363 sites in Africa for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 for near term (2021–2050) and long term (2071–2099). We used fully harmonized climate data and data on extreme climate impact events from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Historic data show that 171 sites had positive temperature anomalies for at least nine of the past ten years with the strongest anomalies (up to 0.56°C) estimated for eastern chimpanzees. Climate projections suggest that temperatures will increase across all sites, while precipitation changes are more heterogeneous. We estimated a future increase in heavy precipitation events for 288 sites, and an increase in the number of consecutive dry days by up to 20 days per year (maximum increase estimated for eastern gorillas). All sites will be frequently exposed to wildfires and crop failures in the future, and the latter could impact apes indirectly through increased deforestation. 84% of sites are projected to be exposed to heatwaves and 78% of sites to river floods. Tropical cyclones and droughts were only projected for individual sites in western and central Africa. We further compiled available evidence on how climate change impacts could affect apes, for example, through heat stress and dehydration, a reduction in water sources and fruit trees, and reduced physiological performance, body condition, fertility, and survival. To support necessary research on the sensitivity and adaptability of African apes to climate change impacts, and the planning and implementation of conservation measures, we provide detailed results for each ape site on the open-access platform A.P.E.S. Wiki.
    Language: English
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  • 93
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    In:  Making the European Green Deal Work. EU Sustainability Policies at Home and Abroad
    Publication Date: 2024-03-06
    Description: The EU and its member countries have been laggards in using forest carbon to reduce EU emissions. The European Green Deal aims to change this. As part of its long-term emissions reductions, the EU aims to offset this by creating land-based carbon sinks, especially forest carbon sinks as well as carbon capture and storage. This chapter focuses on the role of forest carbon as part of the EU's climate policies towards achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It furthermore examines the European Commission's proposed forest strategy and its proposal for a revised LULUCF Regulation. The chapter shows that the logic of appropriateness dominates the European Commission's forest policies. Finally, the chapter makes policy recommendations on how the EU could credibly use long-term carbon sinks to achieve climate neutrality.
    Language: English
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2024-03-08
    Description: Monsoon systems transport water and energy across the globe, making them a central component of the global circulation system. Changes in different forcing parameters have the potential to fundamentally change the monsoon characteristics as indicated in various paleoclimatic records. Here, we use the Atmosphere Model developed at the Geo- physical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL-AM2) and couple it with a slab ocean in order to analyze the monsoon’s sen- sitivity to changes in different parameters on a planet with idealized topography (varying land position, slab depth, atmospheric CO2 concentration, solar radiation, sulfate aerosol concentration, and surface albedo). This Monsoon Planet concept of an aquaplanet with a broad zonal land stripe allows us to reduce the influence of topography and to access the relevant meridional monsoon dynamics. In simulations with monsoon dynamics, a bimodal rainfall distribution develops during the monsoon months with one maximum over the tropical ocean and the other one over land. The intensity and ex- tent of the monsoon depend on the relative height of a local maximum in the surface pressure field that is acting as a bar- rier and is determining the coastward moisture transport. Changes in the barrier height occur during the course of one year but can also be induced when varying different parameters in the sensitivity analysis (e.g., the increase of atmospheric CO2 reduces the barrier height, resulting in an increase of rainfall, while aerosols have the opposing effect). This bimodal rainfall structure separated by a pressure barrier is also present in reanalysis data of the West African monsoon.
    Language: English
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2024-03-08
    Description: Weather extremes are challenging the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 2) – Zero Hunger globally and, most notably, in West Africa where it is further aggravated by rapid population growth. Here we present a stylized stochastic food production model to show how optimal crop allocations change depending on food security risk targets. To guarantee stable livelihoods for farmers, we examine the viability of a contingency fund that supports farmers in the event of low crop yields. Applied to the West African context, accounting for weather variability can substantially improve the reliability of the food supply and boost the fiscal sustainability of a contingency fund. Yet, setting reliability targets for food security is costly and leaves high residual risk in certain regions. Spatial risk-sharing through regional cooperation at the West African scale can eliminate the risk of insufficient food supply and further enhance the fund solvency.
    Language: English
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2024-03-08
    Description: Rising seas are a threat to human and natural systems along coastlines. The relation between global warming and sea level rise is established, but the quantification of impacts of historical sea level rise on a global scale is largely absent. To foster such quantification, here we present a reconstruction of historical hourly (1979–2015) and monthly (1900–2015) coastal water levels and a corresponding counterfactual without long-term trends in sea level. The dataset pair allows for impact attribution studies that quantify the contribution of sea level rise to observed changes in coastal systems following the definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Impacts are ultimately caused by water levels that are relative to the local land height, which makes the inclusion of vertical land motion a necessary step. Also, many impacts are driven by sub-daily extreme water levels. To capture these aspects, the factual data combine reconstructed geocentric sea level on a monthly timescale since 1900, vertical land motion since 1900 and hourly storm-tide variations since 1979. The inclusion of observation-based vertical land motion brings the trends of the combined dataset closer to tide gauge records in most cases, but outliers remain. Daily maximum water levels get in closer agreement with tide gauges through the inclusion of intra-annual ocean density variations. The counterfactual data are derived from the factual data through subtraction of the quadratic trend. The dataset is made available openly through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.749905 (Treu et al., 2023a).
    Language: English
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2024-03-08
    Description: A potential shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is commonly recognised to have a significant impact on the Northern hemispheric climate, notably in Northern Europe. The collapse of the northbound heat transport by the AMOC is supposed to cool down surface air temperatures at the Scandinavian coast by up to 6 K accompanied by a concomitant nutrient starvation of phytoplankton in Subarctic and Arctic regions. However, besides local and regional impacts, tipping the AMOC into a weaker state by anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and associated freshwater forcing could also have surprising remote effects. In order to investigate possible long-term impacts of an AMOC shutdown on ocean biogeochemistry, we employ an Earth system model of intermediate complexity using idealised scenarios of century-scale atmospheric 2×CO2 and 4×CO2 pulses combined with North Atlantic freshwater forcing. The results show a continued increase in primary production, in particular in the Eastern equatorial Pacific, due to a decrease in iron limitation following the AMOC shutdown. Tracer simulations indicate that bioavailable dissolved iron brought by aeolian dust into the subtropical gyres of the Atlantic Ocean is transported to the Southern Ocean and from there enters the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. Thereby, the additionally introduced iron fertilises the phosphate-rich high-nutrient, low chlorophyll waters, giving a lasting boost to phytoplankton growth, especially in the Eastern equatorial Pacific.
    Language: English
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: Im Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne wurden zufällig ausgewählte Bürgerinnen und Bürger aus ganz Deutschland in einem Forschungs- und Lernprozess zur Verkehrs- und Stromwende beteiligt. Dieser Lernprozess eröffnete neue Begegnungs- und Reflexionsräume, in denen Forschende und Bürger:innen über verschiedene Politikoptionen zur Energie- und Verkehrswende diskutieren konnten.
    Language: German
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: Human activities have had a significant impact on Earth's systems and processes, leading to a transition of Earth's state from the relatively stable Holocene epoch to the Anthropocene. The planetary boundaries framework characterizes major risks of destabilization, particularly in the core dimensions of climate and biosphere change. Land system change, including deforestation and urbanization, alters ecosystems and impacts the water and energy cycle between land surface and atmosphere, while climate change can disrupt the balance of ecosystems and impact vegetation composition and soil carbon pools. These drivers also interact with each other, further exacerbating their impacts. Earth system models have been used recently to illustrate the risks and interacting effects of transgressing selected planetary boundaries, but a detailed analysis is still missing. Here, we study the impacts of long-term transgressions of the climate and land system change boundaries on the Earth system using an Earth system model with an incorporated detailed dynamic vegetation model. In our centennial-scale simulation analysis, we find that transgressing the land system change boundary results in increases in global temperatures and aridity. Furthermore, this transgression is associated with a substantial loss of vegetation carbon, exceeding 200 PgC, in contrast to conditions considered safe. Concurrently, the influence of climate change becomes evident as temperatures surge by 2.7–3.1 °C depending on the region. Notably, carbon dynamics are most profoundly affected within the large carbon reservoirs of the boreal permafrost areas, where carbon emissions peak at 150 PgC. While a restoration scenario to reduce human pressure to meet the planetary boundaries of climate change and land system change proves beneficial for carbon pools and global mean temperature, a transgression of these boundaries could lead to profoundly negative effects on the Earth system and the terrestrial biosphere. Our results suggest that respecting both boundaries is essential for safeguarding Holocene-like planetary conditions that characterize a resilient Earth system and are in accordance with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.
    Language: English
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  • 100
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  Reliability Engineering & System Safety
    Publication Date: 2024-03-14
    Description: The problem of network disintegration, such as suppression of an epidemic spread and destabilization of terrorist networks, possesses extensive applications and has lately been the focus of growing interest. Many real-world complex systems are represented by spatial networks in which nodes and edges are spatially embedded. However, existing disintegration approaches for spatial network disintegration focus on singular aspects such as geospatial information or network topography, with insufficient modeling granularity. In this paper, we propose an effective and computationally efficient virtual node model that essentially integrates the geospatial information and topology of the network by modeling edges as virtual nodes with weights. Moreover, we employ Kernel Density Estimation, a well-known non-parametric technique for estimating the underlying probability density function of samples, to fit all nodes, comprising both network and virtual nodes, to identify the critical region of the spatial network, which is also the circular geographic region where disintegration occurs. Extensive numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world networks demonstrate that our method outperforms existing methods in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency, which provides a fresh perspective for modeling spatial networks.
    Language: English
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