ALBERT

Description: Significant detrimental effects of agricultural intensification and specialization are becoming increasingly evident. Reliance on monocultures, few varieties and intensive use of agrochemicals is a major factor in climate change, biodiversity decline, soil health deterioration and pollution, putting our food system at risk. This requires sustainable agricultural processes, such as crop diversification, to be more rapidly and effectively tested, adopted, and scaled. While these processes are typically introduced16 at niche level, they often struggle to scale and to induce broader sustainability transitions. In this study, we investigate how scaling may occur, focusing on institutional logics, their changes and realignment over time. Particularly, we applied an abductive research strategy to collect empirical evidence from two in-depth, longitudinal case studies of innovation niches related to crop diversification. Doing so, we show for the first time that, despite their many differences, scaling processes of crop diversification in both niches converge, presenting similar progressions in terms of institutional dimensions, and facing similar obstacles when it comes to value chain formation. While initial experimentation could still be implemented using organizational forms familiar to the lead actors, we discover that a systemic lack of adequate value chain arrangements obstructed the scaling process of crop diversification in both cases. These findings have been used to reflect on the role of value chain relations in scaling processes in sustainability transitions in agriculture.

Description: Sustainable intensification aims to minimise the negative impacts of the current agricultural system while maintaining productivity and economic outputs. This study demonstrates that contract farming is a potential mechanism to support many, but not all, farmers in adopting sustainable intensification practices. A discrete choice experiment on a hypothetical value chain contract introducing three sustainable intensification practices, namely extended crop rotation, reducing agrochemicals and planting flower strips, was conducted with a sample of 314 north-Italian wheat farmers. The results show that permanently eliminating glyphosate from the plot under contract is strongly resisted by farmers, while farmers have less strong preferences between introducing legumes or oilseeds in rotation, and between temporary or permanent flower strips. Findings also indicate that farmers who are more educated, are not members of cooperatives and who generally prefer more flexible sales arrangements are unlikely to be triggered to adopt sustainable intensification practices through contract farming. Overall, this study indicates that while voluntary contract arrangements can be a potential tool to increase uptake of sustainable intensification practices, they will likely need to be complemented with more regulatory approaches in order to bring sustainable intensification practices to scale.

Description: Climate change increasingly affects the productivity of Uganda’s agricultural sector, with droughts and precipitation variability challenging livelihoods as well as the economic prospects of entire value chains. The country’s national policies and plans on climate change and agriculture recognise that investing in effective adaptation is key to mitigating climate risks. Yet, limited information on current and projected climate impacts on the different steps of agricultural value chains is available on which sound adaptation decisions can be based. This study aims to address this gap by providing a comprehensive climate risk analysis for two selected agricultural value chains: maize, a major food crop, and coffee (Robusta and Arabica), a major export crop. Based on ten global climate models (GCMs), we project how temperature and precipitation is expected to change under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (SSP1- RCP2.6 low emissions scenario and SSP3-RCP7.0 high emissions scenario) and how these impacts might affect maize and coffee production. In addition, interviews with key actors involved in post-harvest activities (including aggregation, processing, marketing and distribution) have been conducted, to better understand how climate change affects later stages of the value chains. Based on the projected impact analysis as well as on a participatory process with various stakeholders in Uganda, four adaptation strategies were selected for our analysis: improved maize varieties, improved maize storage, agroforestry systems for coffee production and improved coffee storage. As part of our adaptation analysis, we consider aspects of risk mitigation potential, cost-effectiveness and gender. The results have been complemented and cross-checked by expert- and literature-based assessments and two stakeholder workshops. The results of this climate risk analysis show that, in response to increasing GHG concentrations, temperatures in Uganda will increase by 1.1 °C under the low emissions scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and by 1.5 °C under the high emissions scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2050, compared to 2004. The number of hot days and hot nights are projected to steadily increase, with severe temperature extremes especially in the north of Uganda. The majority of models project slight future increases of annual precipitation, but precipitation projections are subjected to high model uncertainties. Climatic conditions also substantially affect crop production in Uganda. The projected changes translate into modelled maize yield losses of up to 26.8 % by the end of the century, especially in high maize potential areas such as parts of the Central and Eastern regions, as well as in shifts and reductions in suitability of land to grow coffee. Arabica coffee is particularly affected with projected suitability losses of up to 20 % until 2050. Robusta suitability will only slightly, but progressively, reduce with time with higher losses expected under the high emissions scenario (SSP3-RCP7.0) of up to 5 %. Climate impacts are also felt at later stages of the value chain, significantly affecting post-harvest products, activities and finances, as well as the overall composition of the value chain. The analyses of the four adaptation strategies show that improved maize varieties and agroforestry for coffee production are examples of promising agricultural practices, both in terms of their potential to buffer projected losses due to climate change, but also in terms of cost efficiency. Beyond that, improved storage is a cost-efficient approach for both, maize and coffee, to reduce post-harvest losses and secure the products’ quality. Implementation of these strategies should take farmer types and their local context into consideration and be seen as part of broader resilience-building strategies. Aspects of inequality, such as gender and land tenure, should feed into the design of adaptation strategies. Generally, taking dynamics of the broader value chain into consideration will help to ensure the feasibility and long-term successful uptake of adaptation strategies.

Description: Madagascar has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the country’s agricultural sector. This study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of two potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision-makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Madagascar. The impact assessment consists of several steps, including climate projections based on three emissions scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3- RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario), modelling and comparison of future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (coffee, vanilla, pepper) and an assessment of yield changes in peanut production under future climate conditions. Further, the study outlines gendered challenges and support requirements in national adaptation planning. The simulation results show that Robusta coffee is less sensitive to heat compared to Arabica coffee. The suitable area for Robusta coffee remains almost stable under changing climate conditions, while the suitability of Arabica coffee is projected decrease by 7 % on a national level. Simulation results indicate a slight increase in suitability for vanilla production, particularly in the main growing region Sava, but also in Atsimo Atsinanana, thus safeguarding an important source of income for local farmers and guaranteeing the sustainability of Madagascar´s most valuable export product. Furthermore, climate change is projected to have a rather low impact on the agro-climatic suitability of pepper production. When averaged across Madagascar, the decrease in suitability is less than 1 %, however, there are some noteworthy differences across regions and scenarios. The results for the process-based peanut modelling show that rising temperature and reduced rainfall amounts are likely to decrease peanut yields across Madagascar. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 is projected to offset these negative impacts. The study furthermore evaluated the efficiency of two adaptation strategies, namely the use of locally adapted crop varieties and flexible planting dates. The simulation results suggest that the traditional cultivar Kanety is more suited in future climate change scenarios since yields for Kanety are generally higher than those of the improved variety Fleur 11. Interestingly, opting for flexible planting dates as opposed to a fixed planting date does not result in enhanced yields. This result underlines the importance of regional crop calendars to determine optimal sowing dates. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Madagascar.