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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The transport sector is a crucial bottleneck in the decarbonization challenge. To study the sector’s decarbonization potential in the wider systems perspective, we couple a large-scale integrated assessment model, Regionalized Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND), to a detailed transport model, Energy Demand Generator-Transport (EDGE-T). This approach allows the analysis of mobility futures in the context of long-term and global energy sector transformations, at a high level of modal and technological granularity and internal consistency. The runtime of the coupled system increases by ~ 15–20% compared with a REMIND standalone application, and first convergence tests are promising. To illustrate the capabilities of our modeling approach, we focus on a reference pathway for Europe. Preliminary results indicate that transport service demands grow in the next decades for both passenger and freight transport. Transport system emissions are expected to decrease in the same time range, due to a shift towards electric drivetrains, advanced vehicles, more efficient modes as well as a slight increase in the share of biofuels.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    In:  International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The climate targets defined under the Paris agreement of limiting global temperature increase below 1.5 or 2 °C require massive deployment of low-carbon options in the energy mix, which is currently dominated by fossil fuels. Scenarios suggest that Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) might play a central role in this transformation, but CCS deployment is stagnating and doubts remain about its techno-economic feasibility. In this article, we carry out a throughout assessment of the role of CCS electricity for a variety of temperature targets, from 1.5 to above 4 °C, with particular attention to the lower end of this range. We collect the latest data on CCS economic and technological future prospects to accurately represent several types of CCS plants in the WITCH energy-economy model, We capture uncertainties by means of extensive sensitivity analysis in parameters regarding plants technical aspects, as well as costs and technological progress. Our research suggests that stringent temperature scenarios constrain fossil fuel CCS based deployment, which is maximum for medium policy targets. On the other hand, Biomass CCS, along with renewables, increases with the temperature stringency. Moreover, the relative importance of cost and performance parameters change with the climate target. Cost uncertainty matters in less stringent policy cases, whereas performance matters for lower temperature targets.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: For light-duty vehicles (LDVs), alternative powertrains and liquid fuels based on renewable electricity are competing options considered by policymakers and stakeholders for achieving necessary CO2 emission reductions in the transport sector. While the urgency of climate change and the need to reach mitigation targets are well understood, system-wide implications along other sustainability dimensions need further exploration. We integrate a detailed transport system model into an integrated assessment framework and couple it with prospective life cycle impact analysis. This allows to assess different technological pathways of the European LDV fleet until 2050 for a comprehensive set of environmental and resource depletion indicators. Results indicate that greenhouse gas emissions drop significantly in all mitigation scenarios. However, impacts increase in several non-climate change impact categories even with fully renewable electricity supply. Additional impacts arise from the production of battery and fuel-cell components, and from a significant rise in electricity demand, most prominently for synthetic fuels. We consequently find that changes in mobility life-styles and in the relevant industrial processes are paramount to reduce environmental impacts from a climate-friendly LDV fleet across all categories.
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-07-13
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-11-24
    Description: There is a wide consensus that a fundamental technology shift within the light duty vehicles (LDVs) sector is necessary to achieve the emissions reductions required for the Paris Agreement’s targets, but substantial controversy prevails about the most suitable strategy. While some decision makers favor a transition to battery electric vehicles, others advocate for fuel cell vehicles and e-fuels. These strategies differ markedly in terms of consumer acceptance and implications for the energy system. We explore a range of electrification pathways in Europe until 2050. Direct electrification leads to a strong reduction in direct CO2 emissions of LDVs, with electric vehicles reaching 90% of sales in 2050. Indirect electrification places substantially higher pressure on the supply sector, with almost double the primary energy demand relative to direct electricity use. In addition, the implementation of complementary policies addressing perceived inconvenience markups for alternative mobility is crucial to initiate the mobility transformation.
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-03-24
    Description: Aviation has been identified as one of the crucial hard-to-abate sectors, as especially long-range aviation will continue to depend on liquid fuels for the foreseeable future. The sector also was one of the fastest-growing emitters of fossil CO2 emissions until 2019 but had experienced sharply reduced demand during the COVID-19 pandemic, making future demand outlooks more uncertain. While past studies have looked at the variation of future aviation demands due to variations in demographics, income levels, and pricing policies, an exploration of potentially more sustainable demand futures does not yet exist. Here we use an open-source model with a detailed representation of country-level aviation demand per international/domestic and business/leisure segments to analyze a range of scenarios based on a consistent and comprehensive interpretation of the qualitative narratives related to behavioural aspects as well as the socioeconomic data from different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our results show a potential stabilization of global aviation demand at roughly twice the 2019 level in an SSP1 scenario, a weakened growth for an SSP2 scenario, while an SSP5 scenario projects an aviation future virtually unaffected by the COVID-19 shock resulting in continued high growth rates. Further results show that without specific interventions that change the past demand growth patterns, the aviation sector could grow to levels very challenging to defossilize in a sustainable manner. Therefore, policies aiming at less frequent flying seem to be an important component of long-term decarbonisation strategies, and decisions on airport extensions should carefully assess the risk of stranded infrastructure.
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: This paper presents the new and now open-source version 2.1 of the REgional Model of INvestments and Development (REMIND). REMIND, as an integrated assessment model (IAM), provides an integrated view of the global energy–economy–emissions system and explores self-consistent transformation pathways. It describes a broad range of possible futures and their relation to technical and socio-economic developments as well as policy choices. REMIND is a multiregional model incorporating the economy and a detailed representation of the energy sector implemented in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). It uses non-linear optimization to derive welfare-optimal regional transformation pathways of the energy-economic system subject to climate and sustainability constraints for the time horizon from 2005 to 2100. The resulting solution corresponds to the decentralized market outcome under the assumptions of perfect foresight of agents and internalization of external effects. REMIND enables the analyses of technology options and policy approaches for climate change mitigation with particular strength in representing the scale-up of new technologies, including renewables and their integration in power markets. The REMIND code is organized into modules that gather code relevant for specific topics. Interaction between different modules is made explicit via clearly defined sets of input and output variables. Each module can be represented by different realizations, enabling flexible configuration and extension. The spatial resolution of REMIND is flexible and depends on the resolution of the input data. Thus, the framework can be used for a variety of applications in a customized form, balancing requirements for detail and overall runtime and complexity.
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: This data archive contains model runs and data analysis files to the research article "Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low emission scenarios" by Gunnar Luderer, Silvia Madeddu, Leon Merfort, Falko Ueckerdt, Michaja Pehl, Robert Pietzcker, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Alois Dirnaichner, Florian Humpenöder, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Popp, Renato Rodrigues, Jessica Strefler, Elmar Kriegler
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Language: English
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