ALBERT

Description: 〈p〉Variations in Earth’s orbit pace the glacial-interglacial cycles of the Quaternary, but the mechanisms that transform regional and seasonal variations in solar insolation into glacial-interglacial cycles are still elusive. Here, we present transient simulations of coevolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the past 3 million years. We show that a gradual lowering of atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 and regolith removal are essential to reproduce the evolution of climate variability over the Quaternary. The long-term CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 decrease leads to the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation and an increase in the amplitude of glacial-interglacial variations, while the combined effect of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 decline and regolith removal controls the timing of the transition from a 41,000- to 100,000-year world. Our results suggest that the current CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration is unprecedented over the past 3 million years and that global temperature never exceeded the preindustrial value by more than 2°C during the Quaternary.〈/p〉

Description: Atmospheric CO2 and climate projections for the next century vary widely across current Earth system models (ESMs), owing to different representations of the interactions between the marine and land carbon cycle on the one hand, and climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 on the other hand. Several efforts have been made in the last years to analyse these differences in detail in order to suggest model improvements. Here we review these efforts and analyse their successes, but also the associated uncertainties that hamper the best use of the available observations to constrain and improve the ESMs models. The aim of this paper is to highlight challenges in improving the ESMs that result from: (i) uncertainty about important processes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems and their response to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2; (ii) structural and parameter-related uncertainties in current land and marine models; (iii) uncertainties related to observations and the formulations of model performance metrics. We discuss the implications of these uncertainties for reducing the spread in future projections of ESMs and suggest future directions of work to overcome these uncertainties.

Description: The understanding of the statistical properties and of the dynamics of multistable systems is gaining more and more importance in a vast variety of scientific fields. This is especially relevant for the investigation of the tipping points of complex systems. Sometimes, in order to understand the time series of given observables exhibiting bimodal distributions, simple one-dimensional Langevin models are fitted to reproduce the observed statistical properties, and used to investing-ate the projected dynamics of the observable. This is of great relevance for studying potential catastrophic changes in the properties of the underlying system or resonant behaviours like those related to stochastic resonance-like mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a framework for encasing this kind of studies, using simple box models of the oceanic circulation and choosing as observable the strength of the thermohaline circulation. We study the statistical properties of the transitions between the two modes of operation of the thermohaline circulation under symmetric boundary forcings and test their agreement with simplified one-dimensional phenomenological theories. We extend our analysis to include stochastic resonance-like amplification processes. We conclude that fitted one-dimensional Langevin models, when closely scrutinised, may result to be more ad-hoc than they seem, lacking robustness and/or well-posedness. They should be treated with care, more as an empiric descriptive tool than as methodology with predictive power.

Description: We present results from modelling of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3–3 million years ago) using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 analysing the effect of changes in boundary conditions as well as of orbital forcing on climate. First we performed equilibrium experiments following the PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) protocol with a CO2 concentration of 405 ppm, reconstructed mid-Pliocene orography and vegetation and a present-day orbital configuration. Simulated global Pliocene warming is about 2.5 °C, fully consistent with results of atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations performed for the same modelling setup. A factor separation analysis attributes 1.5 °C warming to CO2, 0.3 °C to orography, 0.2 °C to ice sheets and 0.4 °C to vegetation. Transient simulations for the entire mid-Pliocene warm period with time-dependent orbital forcing as well as interactive ice sheets and vegetation give a global warming varying within the range 1.9–2.8 °C. Ice sheet and vegetation feedbacks in synergy act as amplifiers of the orbital forcing, transforming seasonal insolation variations into an annual mean temperature signal. The effect of orbital forcing is more significant at high latitudes, especially during boreal summer, when the warming over land varies in the wide range from 0 to 10 °C. The modelled ice-sheet extent and vegetation distribution also show significant temporal variations. Modelled and reconstructed data for Northern Hemisphere sea-surface temperatures and vegetation distribution show the best agreement if the reconstructions are assumed to be representative for the warmest periods during the orbital cycles. This suggests that low-resolution Pliocene palaeoclimate reconstructions can reflect not only the impact of increased CO2 concentrations and topography changes but also the effect of orbital forcing. Therefore, the climate (Earth system) sensitivity estimates from Pliocene reconstructions which do not account for the effect of orbital forcing can be biased toward high values.

Description: Permafrost influences a number of processes which are relevant for local and global climate. For example, it is well known that permafrost plays an important role in global carbon and methane cycles. Less is known about the interaction between permafrost and ice sheets. In this study a permafrost module is included in the Earth system model CLIMBER-2, and the coupled Northern Hemisphere (NH) permafrost–ice-sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle is explored. The model performs generally well at reproducing present-day permafrost extent and thickness. Modeled permafrost thickness is sensitive to the values of ground porosity, thermal conductivity and geothermal heat flux. Permafrost extent at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) agrees well with reconstructions and previous modeling estimates. Present-day permafrost thickness is far from equilibrium over deep permafrost regions. Over central Siberia and the Arctic Archipelago permafrost is presently up to 200–500 m thicker than it would be at equilibrium. In these areas, present-day permafrost depth strongly depends on the past climate history and simulations indicate that deep permafrost has a memory of surface temperature variations going back to at least 800 ka. Over the last glacial cycle permafrost has a relatively modest impact on simulated NH ice sheet volume except at LGM, when including permafrost increases ice volume by about 15 m sea level equivalent in our model. This is explained by a delayed melting of the ice base from below by the geothermal heat flux when the ice sheet sits on a porous sediment layer and permafrost has to be melted first. Permafrost affects ice sheet dynamics only when ice extends over areas covered by thick sediments, which is the case at LGM.

Description: Permafrost influences a number of processes which are relevant for local and global climate. For example, it is well known that permafrost plays an important role in global carbon and methane cycles. Less is known about the interaction between permafrost and ice sheets. In this study a permafrost module is included in the Earth system model CLIMBER-2 and the coupled Northern Hemisphere (NH) permafrost-ice sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle is explored. The model performs generally well at reproducing present-day permafrost extent and thickness. Modelled permafrost thickness is sensitive to the values of ground porosity, thermal conductivity and geothermal heat flux. Permafrost extent at the last glacial maximum (LGM) agrees well with reconstructions and previous modelling estimates. Present-day permafrost thickness is far from equilibrium over deep permafrost regions. Over Central Siberia and the Arctic Archipelago permafrost is presently up to 200–500 m thicker than it would be at equilibrium. In these areas, present-day permafrost depth strongly depends on the past climate history and simulations indicate that deep permafrost has a memory of surface temperature variations going back to at least 800 kya. Over the last glacial cycle permafrost has a relatively modest impact on simulated NH ice sheet volume except at LGM, when including permafrost increases ice volume by about 15 m sea level equivalent. This is explained by a delayed melting of the ice base from below by the geothermal heat flux when the ice sheet sits on a porous sediment layer and permafrost has to be melted first. Permafrost affects ice sheet dynamics only when ice extends over areas covered by thick sediments, which is the case at LGM.

Description: We present results from modeling of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3–3 million years ago) using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 analyzing the effect of changes in boundary conditions as well as of orbital forcing on climate. Firstly we performed equilibrium experiments following PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) protocol with a CO2 concentration of 405 ppm, reconstructed mid-Pliocene orography and vegetation and a present day orbital configuration. Simulated global Pliocene warming is about 2.5 °C, fully consistent with results of atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations performed for the same modeling setup. A factor separation analysis attributes 1.5 °C warming to CO2, 0.3 °C to orography, 0.2 °C to ice sheets and 0.4 °C to vegetation. Transient simulations for the entire mid-Pliocene warm period with time-dependent orbital forcing as well as interactive ice sheets and vegetation give a global warming varying within the range 1.9–2.8 °C. Ice sheet and vegetation feedbacks in synergy act as amplifiers of the orbital forcing transforming seasonal insolation variations into an annual mean temperature signal. The effect of orbital forcing is more significant at high latitudes, especially during summer, when the warming over land varies in the wide range from 0–10 °C. The modeled ice sheet extent and vegetation distribution also show significant temporal variations. Modeled and reconstructed data for Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperatures and vegetation distribution show the best agreement if the reconstructions are assumed to be representative for the "warmest" periods during the orbital cycles. This suggests that low-resolution Pliocene paleoclimate reconstructions can reflect not only the impact of increased CO2 concentrations and topography changes but also the effect of orbital forcing. Therefore, the climate (Earth system) sensitivity estimates from Pliocene reconstructions which do not account for the effect of orbital forcing can be biased toward high values.

Description: Climate–vegetation feedback has the potential to significantly contribute to climate change, but little is known about its range of uncertainties. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we address possible uncertainties in the strength of the biogeophysical climate–vegetation feedback using a single-model multi-physics ensemble. Equilibrium experiments with halving (140 ppm) and doubling (560 ppm) of CO2 give a contribution of the vegetation–climate feedback to global temperature change in the range −0.4 to −0.1 °C and −0.1–0.2 °C, respectively. There is an asymmetry between warming and cooling, with a larger, positive vegetation–climate feedback in the lower CO2 climate. Hotspots of climate–vegetation feedback are the boreal zone, the Amazon rainforest and the Sahara. Albedo parameterisation is the dominant source of uncertainty in the subtropics and at high northern latitudes, while uncertainties in evapotranspiration are more relevant in the tropics. Additionally we find that, even considering the upper range of uncertainties, globally the climate–vegetation feedback is rather small compared to the sum of the fast Charney feedbacks. However, it is comparable to the amplitude of the fast feedbacks at high northern latitudes where it can contribute considerably to polar amplification. Furthermore we analyse the separate impact of changes in stomatal conductance, leaf area index and vegetation dynamics on climate and we find that different processes are dominant in lower and higher CO2 worlds. The reduction in stomatal conductance gives the main contribution to temperature increase for a doubling of CO2, while dynamic vegetation is the dominant process in the CO2 halving experiments.

Description: Climate–vegetation feedback has the potential to significantly contribute to climate change, but little is known about its range of uncertainties. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity we address possible uncertainties in the strength of the biogeophysical climate–vegetation feedback using a single-model multi-physics ensemble. Equilibrium experiments with halving (140 ppm) and doubling (560 ppm) of CO2 give a contribution of the vegetation–climate feedback to global temperature change in the range −0.3 to −0.1 °C and −0.1 to 0.2 °C, respectively. There is an asymmetry between warming and cooling, with a larger, positive vegetation–climate feedback in the lower CO2 climate. Hotspots of climate–vegetation feedback are the boreal zone, the Amazon rainforest and the Sahara. Albedo parameterization is the dominant source of uncertainty in the subtropics and at high northern latitudes, while uncertainties in evapotranspiration are more relevant in the tropics. We analyse the separate impact of changes in stomatal conductance, leaf area index and vegetation dynamics on climate and we find that different processes are dominant in lower and higher CO2 worlds. The reduction in stomatal conductance gives the main contribution to temperature increase for a doubling of CO2, while dynamic vegetation is the dominant process in the CO2 halving experiments. Globally the climate–vegetation feedback is rather small compared to the sum of the fast climate feedbacks. However, it is comparable to the amplitude of the fast feedbacks at high northern latitudes where it can contribute considerably to polar amplification. The uncertainties in the climate–vegetation feedback are comparable to the multi-model spread of the fast climate feedbacks.