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  • English  (20,107)
  • 2025-2025  (9)
  • 2020-2024  (20,107)
  • 1955-1959  (2)
  • 1950-1954  (2)
  • 2023  (20,107)
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  • 1
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    London : Penguin Books
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    ISBN: 9780141985206
    Language: English
    Branch Library: RIFS Library
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  • 2
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Stuttgart : Schweizerbart Science Publishers ; Volume 1, number 1 (1978)-
    Call number: M 18.91571
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 134 Seiten
    ISSN: 2363-7196
    Series Statement: Global tectonics and metallogeny : special issue Vol. 10/2-4
    Classification:
    Tectonics
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Global tectonics and metallogeny
    Language: English
    Location: Upper compact magazine
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 3
    Journal available for loan
    Journal available for loan
    Tübingen : Mohr Siebeck ; 1.1884 - 48.1931; N.F. 1.1932/33 - 10.1943/44(1945),3; 11.1948/49(1949) -
    Call number: ZS 22.95039
    Type of Medium: Journal available for loan
    Pages: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1614-0974 , 0015-2218 , 0015-2218
    Language: German , English
    Note: N.F. entfällt ab 57.2000. - Volltext auch als Teil einer Datenbank verfügbar , Ersch. ab 2000 in engl. Sprache mit dt. Hauptsacht.
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  • 4
    Monograph non-lending collection
    Monograph non-lending collection
    Leiden : Nijhoff ; 1.2009 -
    Call number: IASS 17.92082
    Type of Medium: Monograph non-lending collection
    ISSN: 1876-8814
    Language: English
    Branch Library: RIFS Library
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  • 5
    Call number: 3/S 07.0034(2017)
    In: Annual report
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 51 Seiten
    ISSN: 1865-6439 , 1865-6447
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Parallel Title: Annual report ... / Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
    Language: English
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  • 6
  • 7
    Call number: Z 06.0500
    Type of Medium: Journal available for loan
    Pages: 30 cm
    ISSN: 1824-7741
    Former Title: Vorgänger Geologisch-paläontologische Mitteilungen, Innsbruck
    Language: German , English
    Note: Ersch. unregelmäßig , Beiträge teilweise in Englisch
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 8
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    [Edgecumbe, N.Z.] : A. Muller
    Call number: M 15.89146
    Description / Table of Contents: An account of the results of the 2 March 1987 earthquake in the eastern Bay of Plenty and the aftermath's effects on the people and places on the Rangitaiki Plains
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 223 S., , Ill.
    Language: English
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 9
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Garmisch-Partenkirchen : Institut für atmosphärische Umweltforschung der Fraunhofer- Gesellschaft
    Call number: MOP 44829 / Mitte
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 25 S. , graph. Darst.
    Language: English
    Location: MOP - must be ordered
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2023-01-11
    Description: This paper discusses severe risks to food security and nutrition that are linked to ongoing and projected climate change, particularly climate and weather extremes in global warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation. We specifically consider the impacts on populations vulnerable to food insecurity and malnutrition due to lower income, lower access to nutritious food, or social discrimination. The paper defines climate-related “severe risk” in the context of food security and nutrition, using a combination of criteria, including the magnitude and likelihood of adverse consequences, the timing of the risk and the ability to reduce the risk. Severe climate change risks to food security and nutrition are those which result, with high likelihood, in pervasive and persistent food insecurity and malnutrition for millions of people, have the potential for cascading effects beyond the food systems, and against which we have limited ability to prevent or fully respond. The paper uses internationally agreed definitions of risks to food security and nutrition to describe the magnitude of adverse consequences. Moreover, the paper assesses the conditions under which climate change-induced risks to food security and nutrition could become severe based on findings in the literature using different climate change scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways. Finally, the paper proposes adaptation options, including institutional management and governance actions, that could be taken now to prevent or reduce the severe climate risks to future human food security and nutrition.
    Language: English
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2023-02-03
    Description: This article focuses on the neural-network (NN)-based adaptive tracking control issue for a class of high-order nonlinear multiagent systems both subjected to the immeasurable state variables and unknown external disturbance. Combining with the radial basis function NNs (RBF NNs), the composite disturbance observer and state observer for each follower are established, respectively. The purpose of this work is to develop NN-based adaptive tracking control schemes such that the output of each follower ultimately tracks that of the leader and all the signals of the closed-loop systems are semiglobally uniformly ultimately bounded by utilizing the backstepping technique. Furthermore, so as to cope with the sparsity of the control resources, the proposed method is extended to the event-triggered case and the adaptive event-triggered tracking control protocol is formulated for nonlinear multiagent systems. Finally, the numerical example is performed to verify the efficacy of the proposed approach.
    Language: English
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2023-02-07
    Description: In this paper we discuss PyBanshee, which is a Python-based open-source implementation of the MATLAB toolbox BANSHEE. PyBanshee constitutes the first fully open-source package to quantify, visualize and validate Non-Parametric Bayesian Networks (NPBNs). The architecture of PyBanshee is heavily based on its MATLAB predecessor. It presents the full implementation of existing tools and introduces new modules. Specifically, PyBanshee allows for: (i) choosing fully parametric one-dimensional margins, (ii) choosing different sample sizes for the model-validation tests based on the Hellinger distance, (iii) drawing user-defined sample sizes of the NPBN, (iv) sample-based conditioning sampling (similarly to the closed-source proprietary package UNINET by LightTwist Software) and (v) visualizing the comparison between the histograms of the unconditional and conditional marginal distributions. New detailed examples demonstrating new features are provided.
    Language: English
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: The aim of this paper is to review quantitative large-N studies that investigate the effects of climate change on migration flows. Recent meta-analyses have shown that most studies find that climate change influences migration flows. There are however also many studies that find no effects or show that effects are dependent on specific contexts. To better understand this complexity, we argue that we need to discuss in more detail how to measure climate change and migration, how these measurements relate to each other and how we can conceptualise the relationship between these two phenomena. After a presentation of current approaches to measuring climate change, international and internal migration and their strengths and weaknesses we discuss ways to overcome the limitations of existing analytical frameworks.
    Language: English
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2023-02-10
    Language: English
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2023-02-14
    Description: As part of the Earth4All project, collaborators have submitted this paper to delve further into the steps to be taken to widely transform our conventional agricultural system to provide food security and improve ecological resilience in a rapidly changing global climate. This article analyses the potential positive effects on soil ecology and crop yield of a global-scale transition to regenerative agriculture, while also considering social spreading dynamics that determine the adoption of such practices by farmers. The authors argue that the transition to a global regenerative agricultural system cannot be achieved without considering the deeper societal processes driving the effective dissemination and adoption of the change. Furthermore, the surrounding factors and conditions such as farmers’ political and institutional embeddedness, public opinion, the economic situation and the climate conditions they face within their region or community, as potential barriers hindering the transition, have to be taken into account. Therefore, it is not only the farmers’ responsibility to drive the change but also the politicians, institutions, companies and individual actors’ one which, all together, will support such transition processes.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2023-02-23
    Description: Achieving sustainable development requires understanding how human behavior and the environment interact across spatial scales. In particular, knowing how to manage tradeoffs between the environment and the economy, or between one spatial scale and another, necessitates a modeling approach that allows these different components to interact. Existing integrated local and global analyses provide key insights, but often fail to capture 'meso-scale' phenomena that operate at scales between the local and the global, leading to erroneous predictions and a constrained scope of analysis. Meso-scale phenomena are difficult to model because of their complexity and computational challenges, where adding additional scales can increase model run-time exponentially. These additions, however, are necessary to make models that include sufficient detail for policy-makers to assess tradeoffs. Here, we synthesize research that explicitly includes meso-scale phenomena and assess where further efforts might be fruitful in improving our predictions and expanding the scope of questions that sustainability science can answer. We emphasize five categories of models relevant to sustainability science, including biophysical models, integrated assessment models, land-use change models, earth-economy models and spatial downscaling models. We outline the technical and methodological challenges present in these areas of research and discuss seven directions for future research that will improve coverage of meso-scale effects. Additionally, we provide a specific worked example that shows the challenges present, and possible solutions, for modeling meso-scale phenomena in integrated earth-economy models.
    Language: English
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Beaufils, T.; Berthet, E.; Ward, H.; & Wenz, L. (2023). Beyond production and consumption: Using throughflows to untangle the virtual trade of externalities. Economic Systems Research. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2023.2174003 - Supporting code and data
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2023-03-03
    Description: Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long-term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of 〉170,000 records of ground-based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m3 of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70-year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under-reporting, especially of small-scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m3/year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long-term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes.
    Language: English
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2023-03-03
    Description: Smallholder farmers have adopted diverse adaptation practices to lessen the effect of climate change. However, context-specific information about why particular adaptation strategies are adopted remains limited. This study examined the factors that facilitate the choice of farm-level adaptation strategies to climate change (CC) using data collected from 269 African indigenous vegetable (AIV) farmers in Kenya. A multivariate probit (MVP) regression model was used to evaluate the determinants of adaptation choices. The most frequently adopted strategies considered for analysis were manure application, increased pesticide use, crop rotation, irrigation, change of planting dates and terracing. The results reveal that land ownership, group membership, access to extension services and education level were some of the key drivers of adoption. This implies that policies and programmes that are designed to build the ability of smallholder AIV farmers to adapt to climate change should focus on organising farmers into groups, disseminating timely weather information, improving land tenure security, increasing off-farm employment and providing greater access to extension services.
    Language: English
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2023-03-03
    Description: That climate variability and change can potentially force multiple simultaneous breadbasket crop yield shocks has been established. But research quantifying the mechanisms behind such simultaneous shocks has been constrained by short records of crop yields. Here we compile a dataset of subnational crop yields in 25 countries dating back to 1900 to study the frequency and trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks and how large-scale climate anomalies on interannual timescales have affected multiple breadbasket yield shocks over the last century. We find that major simultaneous breadbasket yield shocks have occurred in at least three, four, or five of nine breadbaskets 10.3%, 2.3% and 1.1% of the time for maize and 18.4%, 4.6% and 2.3% of the time for wheat. Furthermore, we find that multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreased in frequency even as those breadbaskets experience increasingly frequent climate-related shocks. For both maize and wheat breadbaskets, there were fewer simultaneous yield shocks during the 1975–2017 time period as compared to 1931–1975. Finally, we find that interannual modes of climate variability - such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - have all affected the relative probability of simultaneous yield shocks in pairs of breadbaskets by up to 20–40% in both maize and wheat breadbaskets. While past literature has focused on the effects of ENSO, we find that at the global scale the NAO affects the overall number of wheat yield shocks most strongly despite only affecting northern hemisphere breadbaskets.
    Language: English
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2023-03-07
    Description: Background: Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). - Methods: Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. - Findings: 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76–0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76–0·88]). - Interpretation: The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns.
    Language: English
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2023-03-08
    Description: The planetary crises require health professionals to understand the interlinkages between health and environmental changes, and how to reduce ecological harm (ie, ecological footprint) and promote positive change (ie, ecological handprint). However, health professions’ education and training are mostly lacking these aspects. In this Viewpoint, we report findings from the evaluation of the Planetary Health Academy, the first open online lecture series for transformative planetary health education in Germany. In a retrospective online survey, 458 of 3656 Planetary Health Academy participants reported on their emotions towards climate change, attitudes towards health professionals’ responsibilities, self-efficacy, and the contribution of the Planetary Health Academy to their knowledge and actions. Additionally, motivators and barriers to acting were assessed. Our findings provide insights that can inform future efforts for transformative education. Combined with network and movement building, education could act as a social tipping element toward actions to mitigate global environmental changes.
    Language: English
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2023-03-08
    Description: To feed the growing population, achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, and fulfil the commitments of the Paris Agreement, West African countries need to invest in agricultural development and renewable energy, among other sectors. Irrigated agriculture, feeding millions of people, and hydropower, generating clean electricity, depend on water availability and compete for the resource. In the Volta basin, the planned 105 000 ha of irrigated land in Burkina Faso and Ghana could feed hundreds of thousands of people. However, irrigation in the dry season depends on upstream dams that change the river’s flow regime from intermittent to permanent, and at the same time irrigation water is no longer available for hydropower generation. Using an integrated eco-hydrological and water management model, we investigated the water demand and supply of three planned irrigation projects and the impacts of the planned Pwalugu multi-purpose dam on the hydropower potentials and water availability in the entire Volta basin. We found that future irrigation withdrawals would reduce the hydropower potential in the Volta basin by 79 GWh a−1 and the operation of Pwalugu by another 86 GWh a−1. Hence, Pwalugu contributes only about 101 GWh a−1 of its potential of 187 GWh a−1. Under climate change simulations, using an ensemble of eight bias-adjusted and downscaled GCMs, irrigation demand surprisingly did not increase. The higher evaporation losses due to higher temperatures were compensated by increasing precipitation while favouring hydropower generation. However, water availability at the irrigation site in Burkina Faso is clearly at its limit, while capacity in Ghana is not yet exhausted. Due to hydro-climatic differences in the Volta basin, the cost of irrigating one hectare of land in terms of lost hydropower potential follows a north-south gradient from the hot and dry north to the humid south. Nevertheless, food production should have priority over hydropower, which can be compensated by other renewables energies.
    Language: English
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2023-03-22
    Description: The observed temperature increase due to anthropogenic carbon emissions has impacted economies worldwide. National income levels in origin and destination countries influence international migration. Emigration is relatively low not only from high income countries but also from very poor regions, which is explained in current migration theory by credit constraints and lower average education levels, among other reasons. These relationships suggest a potential non-linear, indirect effect of climate change on migration through this indirect channel. Here we explore this effect through a counterfactual analysis using observational data and a simple model of migration. We show that a world without climate change would have seen less migration during the past 30 years, but that this effect is strongly reduced due to inhibited mobility. Our framework suggests that migration within the Global South has been strongly reduced because these countries have seen less economic growth than they would have experienced without climate change. Importantly, climate change has impacted international migration in the richer and poorer parts of the world very differently. In the future, climate change may keep in- creasing global migration as it slows down countries' transition across the middle-income range associated with the highest emigration rates.
    Language: English
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2023-03-28
    Description: Phase transitions in equilibrium and nonequilibrium systems play a major role in the natural sciences. In dynamical networks, phase transitions organize qualitative changes in the collective behavior of coupled dynamical units. Adaptive dynamical networks feature a connectivity structure that changes over time, coevolving with the nodes’ dynamical state. In this Letter, we show the emergence of two distinct first-order nonequilibrium phase transitions in a finite-size adaptive network of heterogeneous phase oscillators. Depending on the nature of defects in the internal frequency distribution, we observe either an abrupt single-step transition to full synchronization or a more gradual multistep transition. This observation has a striking resemblance to heterogeneous nucleation. We develop a mean-field approach to study the interplay between adaptivity and nodal heterogeneity and describe the dynamics of multicluster states and their role in determining the character of the phase transition. Our work provides a theoretical framework for studying the interplay between adaptivity and nodal heterogeneity.
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2023-03-30
    Description: Agriculture is a major sector responsible for greenhouse gas emissions. Local food production can contribute to reducing transport-related emissions. Since most of the worldwide population lives in cities, locally producing food implies practicing agriculture in urban and peri-urban areas. Exemplary, we analyze the potential to produce fresh vegetables within Berlin, Germany. We investigate the spatial extent of five different urban spaces for soil-based agriculture or gardening, i.e., non-built residential areas, allotment gardens, rooftops, supermarket parking lots, and cemeteries. We also quantify inputs required for such food production in terms of water, human resources, and investment. Our findings highlight that up to 82% of Berlin’s vegetable demand could be produced within the city, based on a reasonable validation of existing areas. Meeting this potential requires 42 km of urban spaces for cultivation, a considerable amount of irrigation water, around 17 thousand gardeners, and over 750 million EUR of initial investments. The final vegetable cost would be around 2 EUR to 10 EUR per kg without any profit margin. We conclude that it is realistic to produce a significant amount of Berlin’s vegetable demand within the city, even if it comes with great challenges.
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2023-03-30
    Description: Study Region: The Naryn River Basin, Kyrgyzstan. - Study Focus: We investigate the impacts of climate change in the basin based on two families of General Circulation Models (GCMs) using the hydrological model SWAT. The forcing datasets are the widely used ISIMIP2 (I2) and the newly derived ISIMIP3 (I3) data which refer to the 5th and 6th stage of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Due to notable differences in the forcing we evaluate their impacts on various hydrological components of the basin, such as discharge, evapotranspiration (ETA) and soil moisture (SM). Besides, a partial correlation (PC) analysis is used to assess the meteorological controls of the basin with special emphasize on the SM-ETA coupling. - New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Agreement in the basin’s projections is found, such as discharge shifts towards an earlier peak flow of one month, significant SM reductions and ETA increases. I3 temperature projections exceed their previous estimates and show an increase in precipitation, which differs from I2. However, the mitigating effects do not lead to an improvement in the region’s susceptibility to soil moisture deficits. The PC study reveals enhanced water-limited conditions expressed as positive SM-ETA feedback under I2 and I3, albeit slightly weaker under I3.
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2023-03-31
    Description: Many modern extinction drivers are shared with past mass extinction events, such as rapid climate warming, habitat loss, pollution and invasive species. This commonality presents a key question: can the extinction risk of species during past mass extinction events inform our predictions for a modern biodiversity crisis? To investigate if it is possible to establish which species were more likely to go extinct during mass extinctions, we applied a functional trait-based model of extinction risk using a machine learning algorithm to datasets of marine fossils for the end-Permian, end-Triassic and end-Cretaceous mass extinctions. Extinction selectivity was inferred across each individual mass extinction event, before testing whether the selectivity patterns obtained could be used to ‘predict’ the extinction selectivity exhibited during the other mass extinctions. Our analyses show that, despite some similarities in extinction selectivity patterns between ancient crises, the selectivity of mass extinction events is inconsistent, which leads to a poor predictive performance. This lack of predictability is attributed to evolution in marine ecosystems, particularly during the Mesozoic Marine Revolution, associated with shifts in community structure alongside coincident Earth system changes. Our results suggest that past extinctions are unlikely to be informative for predicting extinction risk during a projected mass extinction.
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  • 29
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    In:  IEEE Transactions on Signal and Information Processing over Networks
    Publication Date: 2023-04-14
    Description: In many specific scenarios, accurateand practical cooperative learning is a commonly encountered challenge in multi-agent systems. Thus, the current investigation focuses on cooperative learning algorithms for multi-agent systems and underpins an alternate data-based neural network reinforcement learning framework. To achieve the data-based learning optimization, the proposed cooperative learning framework, which comprises two layers, introduces a virtual learning objective. The followers learn the behaviors of the virtual objects in the first layer based on the adaptive neural networks (NNs). Specifically, the actor and critic NNs are applied to acquire cooperative behaviors and assess this layer's long-term utility function. Then another layer realizes the tracking performance between the virtual objects and the leader by introducing the local data-based performance index. Then, we formulate a resulting deterministic optimization problem and resolve it effectively with the policy iteration algorithm. This intuitive cooperative learning algorithm also preserves good robustness properties and eliminates the dependence on the prior knowledge of the multi-agent system model in the solution process. Finally, a multi-robot formation system demonstrates this promising development's practical appeal and highly effective outcome.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2023-04-12
    Description: Correlation analysis serves as an easy-to-implement estimation approach for the quantification of the interaction or connectivity between different units. Often, pairwise correlations estimated by sliding windows are time-varying (on different window segments) and window size-dependent (on different window sizes). Still, how to choose an appropriate window size remains unclear. This paper offers a framework for studying this fundamental question by observing a critical transition from a chaotic-like state to a nonchaotic state. Specifically, given two time series and a fixed window size, we create a correlation-based series based on nonlinear correlation measurement and sliding windows as an approximation of the time-varying correlations between the original time series. We find that the varying correlations yield a state transition from a chaotic-like state to a nonchaotic state with increasing window size. This window size-dependent transition is analyzed as a universal phenomenon in both model and real-world systems (e.g., climate, financial, and neural systems). More importantly, the transition point provides a quantitative rule for the selection of window sizes. That is, the nonchaotic correlation better allows for many regression-based predictions. Complex connections between different units can be simply approximated by correlation analysis between corresponding time series. When the complete information (the entire time series) is considered for analysis, dynamic connections are aggregated into a single value, reflecting the overall macro linkage. When segmented information (a sliced time series) is combined with sliding windows, the underlying dynamic connections can be approximated by time-varying correlations. Intuitively, the longer the segments are, the more likely to capture cyclic behavior. A typical example is that in climate science, large-scale climate phenomena, such as seasonal changes induced by the annual cycle of solar radiation, are not observable on the timescale of diurnal cycles. Similarly, for correlation analysis, choosing a suitable window scale to capture the necessary patterns hidden in the time series is fundamental; yet, how to do so is unclear. We intend to address this issue in our work.
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2023-04-19
    Description: A waste-to-protein system that integrates a range of waste-to-protein upgrading technologies has the potential to converge innovations on zero-waste and protein security to ensure a sustainable protein future. We present a global overview of food-safe and feed-safe waste resource potential and technologies to sort and transform such waste streams with compositional quality characteristics into food-grade or feed-grade protein. The identified streams are rich in carbon and nutrients and absent of pathogens and hazardous contaminants, including food waste streams, lignocellulosic waste from agricultural residues and forestry, and contaminant-free waste from the food and drink industry. A wide range of chemical, physical, and biological treatments can be applied to extract nutrients and convert waste-carbon to fermentable sugars or other platform chemicals for subsequent conversion to protein. Our quantitative analyses suggest that the waste-to-protein system has the potential to maximise recovery of various low-value resources and catalyse the transformative solutions toward a sustainable protein future. However, novel protein regulation processes remain expensive and resource intensive in many countries, with protracted timelines for approval. This poses a significant barrier to market expansion, despite accelerated research and development in waste-to-protein technologies and novel protein sources. Thus, the waste-to-protein system is an important initiative to promote metabolic health across lifespans and tackle the global hunger crisis.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2023-04-18
    Description: African paleoanthropological studies typically focus on regions of the continent such asEastern, Southern and Northern Africa, which hold the highest density of Pleistocenearchaeological sites. Nevertheless, lesser known areas such as West Africa also feature a highnumber of sites. Here, we present a high-resolution map synthesising all well contextualisedPleistocene archaeological sites present in Sub-Saharan West Africa. A detailed elevation andecoregional map was developed and correlated with palaeoanthropological sites. This mapis supplemented with 1,000- and 2000-year interval climate reconstructions over the last120,000 years for three subregions of high archaeological interest. The presentedarchaeological sites were compiled by reviewing published literature, and selected basedon: (1) documented archaeological stratification or 〉10 characteristic artefacts, (2) publishedcoordinates, and (3) published chronometric ages or relative dating. The data presentedhere elucidates the current state of knowledge of Pleistocene West Africa, highlighting theregional potential for human evolutionary studies.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2023-04-21
    Description: Trends in flood magnitudes vary across the conterminous USA (CONUS). There have been attempts to identify what controls these regionally varying trends, but these attempts were limited to certain—for example, climatic—variables or to smaller regions, using different methods and datasets each time. Here we attribute the trends in annual maximum streamflow for 4,390 gauging stations across the CONUS in the period 1960–2010, while using a novel combination of methods and an unprecedented variety of potential controlling variables to allow large-scale comparisons and minimize biases. Using process-based flood classification and complex networks, we find 10 distinct clusters of catchments with similar flood behavior. We compile a set of 31 hydro-climatological and land use variables as predictors for 10 separate Random Forest models, allowing us to find the main controls the flood magnitude trends for each cluster. By using Accumulated Local Effect plots, we can understand how these controls influence the trends in the flood magnitude. We show that hydro-climatologic changes and land use are of similar importance for flood magnitude trends across the CONUS. Static land use variables are more important than their trends, suggesting that land use is able to attenuate (forested areas) or amplify (urbanized areas) the effects of climatic changes on flood magnitudes. For some variables, we find opposing effects in different regions, showing that flood trend controls are highly dependent on regional characteristics and that our novel approach is necessary to attribute flood magnitude trends reliably at the continental scale while maintaining sensitivity to regional controls.
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  • 34
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    In:  Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics
    Publication Date: 2023-04-21
    Description: The analysis of event time series is in general challenging. Most time series analysis tools are limited for the analysis of this kind of data. Recurrence analysis, a powerful concept from nonlinear time series analysis, provides several opportunities to work with event data and even for the most challenging task of comparing event time series with continuous time series. Here, the basic concept is introduced, the challenges are discussed, and the future perspectives are summarized.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2023-05-02
    Description: This paper addresses the issue of dynamic mean-square consensus for second-order hybrid multi-agent systems. Time-varying delays and multiplicative noises are considered. New distributed control protocols are designed based on data-sampled information of neighbor agents. Equivalently using the error system based on Laplacian matrix, the method could make a dynamic consensus both under the fixed and switching topologies. By adopting stochastic system theory, Lyapunov stability method and linear matrix inequality theory, several sufficient conditions for the dynamic mean-square consensus are obtained. The upper bound of time delay and the discrete-time sampling period of hybrid multi-agent systems under a stochastic noises environment are inferred. Several simulations are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2023-05-02
    Description: Given two dynamical systems, we quantify how similar they are with respect to their interaction with the outside world. We focus on the case where simpler systems act as a specification for a more complex one. Combining a behavioral and probabilistic perspective we define several useful notions of the distance of a system to a specification. We show that these distances can be used to tune a complex system. We demonstrate that our approach can successfully make non-linear networked systems behave like much smaller networks, allowing us to aggregate large sub-networks into one or two effective nodes. Finally, we discuss similarities and differences between our approach and H∞ model reduction.
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2023-05-02
    Description: Background: Despite considerable progress made over the past 20 years in reducing the global burden of malaria, the disease remains a major public health problem and there is concern that climate change might expand suitable areas for transmission. This study investigated the relative effect of climate variability on malaria incidence after scale-up of interventions in western Kenya. - Methods: Bayesian negative binomial models were fitted to monthly malaria incidence data, extracted from records of patients with febrile illnesses visiting the Lwak Mission Hospital between 2008 and 2019. Data pertaining to bed net use and socio-economic status (SES) were obtained from household surveys. Climatic proxy variables obtained from remote sensing were included as covariates in the models. Bayesian variable selection was used to determine the elapsing time between climate suitability and malaria incidence. - Results: Malaria incidence increased by 50% from 2008 to 2010, then declined by 73% until 2015. There was a resurgence of cases after 2016, despite high bed net use. Increase in daytime land surface temperature was associated with a decline in malaria incidence (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.70, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]: 0.59–0.82), while rainfall was associated with increased incidence (IRR = 1.27, 95% BCI: 1.10–1.44). Bed net use was associated with a decline in malaria incidence in children aged 6–59 months (IRR = 0.78, 95% BCI: 0.70–0.87) but not in older age groups, whereas SES was not associated with malaria incidence in this population. - Conclusions: Variability in climatic factors showed a stronger effect on malaria incidence than bed net use. Bed net use was, however, associated with a reduction in malaria incidence, especially among children aged 6–59 months after adjusting for climate effects. To sustain the downward trend in malaria incidence, this study recommends continued distribution and use of bed nets and consideration of climate-based malaria early warning systems when planning for future control interventions.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2023-05-02
    Description: To satisfy the increasing global demand for agricultural products, the expansion of irrigation is an important intensification measure. At the same time, unsustainable water abstractions and cropland expansion pose a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Irrigation potentials are influenced by local biophysical irrigation water availability and competition of different water users. Using a novel hydro-economic data processing routine that considers economic criteria of water allocation via a productivity ranking of grid cells and both land and water sustainability criteria, we estimate global irrigation potentials at a 0.5 ° spatial resolution. We show that there is considerable technical potential to expand irrigation within local water and land boundaries. In terms of potentially irrigated areas on all global land suitable for crop production, 2144 Mha could be irrigated within land and water environmental boundaries when only considering biophysical criteria. However, not all of these areas would actually be irrigated under consideration of irrigation costs. Of these, only 698 Mha (330 Mha) have a yield gain of more than 300 (600) USD ha-1 under the current crop mix valued at their current commodity price (economic irrigation potential).
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  • 39
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    World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) at DKRZ
    Publication Date: 2023-05-04
    Description: An ensemble of bias adjusted regional climate model simulations based on EURO-CORDEX (CORDEX-EUR11). The data set covers daily temperature (minimum, average and maximum) and precipitation for historical, rcp26, rcp45 and rcp85 experiments covering a period from 1971 to 2100. In total 8 different RCMs from 8 institutes are included in the data set. ISIMIP3BASD v2.4.1 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4686991) method was used for bias adjustment. The method is based on a parametric quantile mapping, including trend preservation of each quantile. Bias adjustment was performed for each variable separately. We used E-OBS v19.0e (https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200) data to calibrate the bias adjustment transfer functions for the period 1971 to 2005. The data was developed and utilized within the Clim4Vitis project - Climate change impact mitigation for European viticulture (https://clim4vitis.eu). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Regional Climate, and the Working Group on Coupled Modelling, former coordinating body of CORDEX and responsible panel for CMIP5. We also thank the climate modelling groups (CLMcom, DMI, GERICS, IPSL-INERIS, KNMI, MPI-CSC, SMHI and UHOH) for producing and making available their model output. We also acknowledge the Earth System Grid Federation infrastructure an international effort led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, the European Network for Earth System Modelling and other partners in the Global Organisation for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP).
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2023-05-04
    Description: The atmospheric concentration of CO2 at which global glaciation (snowball) bifurcation occurs, changes throughout Earth's history, most notably because of the slowly increasing solar luminosity. Quantifying this critical CO2 concentration is not only interesting from a climate dynamics perspective, but also an important prerequisite for understanding past Snowball Earth episodes as well as the conditions for habitability on Earth and other planets. Here we use the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α in an Aquaplanet configuration to scan for the Snowball bifurcation point for time slices spanning the last 4 billion years, thus quantifying the time evolution of the bifurcation and identifying a qualitative shift in critical state dynamics.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2023-05-12
    Description: Parameter table for the corrigendum of the paper "All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal" by Warszawski et al. (2021) published in Environmental Research Letters. The 50 emissions scenarios considered for analysis in this paper, including the numerical value for the 8 parameters (5 levers and 3 milestones) used in this analysis. For the individual levers, cells shaded blue stay within the high upper bounds, and cells shaded green stay within the medium upper bounds. Scenarios that stay within all high upper bounds, i.e. the filtered ensemble, are shaded blue. The SR1.5 scenarios P1-P4 are flagged on the left of the table. The P4, Shell and IEA scenarios appear at the end of the table.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2023-05-16
    Description: GDP scenarios are major drivers of climate change and climate change mitigation assessment studies. In this paper, a major update of the SSP GDP projections is presented. By using the most recent economic data and short-term projections by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, the update captures changes in the system of national accounting and purchasing power parities, as well as the impact of the Covid 19 pandemic. Harmonization between the data and the original end-of-the century SSP projections was carried out in terms of GDP per capita in order to preserve the underlying narrative of income convergence. The result is a set of projections compatible with the most recent data and the SSP narratives. A comparison of DICE models calibrated to the original and updated SSP2 GDP per capita projections illustrates how significant the impact of an update of income data on integrated assessment results can be. The estimated global social costs of carbon in 2015 and 2030 rose by almost 30%.
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2023-05-16
    Description: Given concerns about the ambition and effectiveness of current climate policies, a case has been made for the combination of demand side policies such as carbon pricing with supply side bans on fossil fuel extraction. However, little is known about their interplay in the context of climate stabilization strategies. Here, we present a multi-model assessment quantifying the effectiveness of supply side policies and their interactions with demand-side ones. We explore a variety of fossil fuel bans with four integrated assessment models and find that international supply side policies reduce carbon emissions but not at sufficient levels to stabilize temperature increase to well below 2°C. When combined with demand side policies, supply side policies reduce the required carbon price, dampen reliance on CO2 removal technologies, and increase investment in renewable energy. The results indicate the opportunity to integrate fossil fuel bans alongside price-based policies when exploring pathways to reach ambitious mitigation targets.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2023-05-16
    Description: Climate change and variability threaten the sustainability of future food production, especially in semi-arid regions where water resources are limited and irrigated agriculture is widespread. Increasing temperatures will exacerbate evaporative losses and increase plant water needs. In this regard, higher irrigation intensities have been posited as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts in these regions. Here, using the agro-hydrological model SWAT and the biophysical crop model APSIM, we show that this mitigation measure is oversimplified. We find that heat stress, driven by strong temperature increases, might be the dominating factor in controlling future crop yields and plant water needs. Our analysis encompasses agricultural areas of the Lower Chenab Canal System in Punjab, Pakistan (15,000 km2), which is part of the Indus River irrigation system, the largest irrigation system in the world, covering major cotton, rice and maize cropping zones. Climate models project a strong increase in temperature over the study region of up to 1.8 °C (±0.5 °C) until the mid-century. Both models predict a decline in future crop yields for maize and rice crops, while cotton yields are less effected by rising temperatures and strongly benefit from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. For a high carbon emission scenario, the models simulate yield declines for maize of up to −10% (APSIM) and −19% (SWAT); for rice yields of up to −4% (APSIM) to −26% (SWAT), and for cotton yields of −1% (APSIM) to +11% (SWAT), until 2050, relative to the baseline scenario 1996–2005. Our modeling results further suggest that irrigation demands do not align with increasing temperature trends. Average irrigation demands increase less under higher temperatures. Overall, our study emphasizes the role of elevated heat stress, its effects on agricultural productivity as well as water demand, and its implications for climate change adaption strategies to mitigate adverse impacts in an intensively irrigated region.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2023-05-16
    Description: The achievement of several sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement depends on rapid progress towards sustainable food and land systems in all countries. We have built a flexible, collaborative modeling framework to foster the development of national pathways by local research teams and their integration up to global scale. Local researchers independently customize national models to explore mid-century pathways of the food and land use system transformation in collaboration with stakeholders. An online platform connects the national models, iteratively balances global exports and imports, and aggregates results to the global level. Our results show that actions toward greater sustainability in countries could sum up to 1 Mha net forest gain per year, 950 Mha net gain in the land where natural processes predominate, and an increased CO2 sink of 3.7 GtCO2e yr−1 over the period 2020–2050 compared to current trends, while average food consumption per capita remains above the adequate food requirements in all countries. We show examples of how the global linkage impacts national results and how different assumptions in national pathways impact global results. This modeling setup acknowledges the broad heterogeneity of socio-ecological contexts and the fact that people who live in these different contexts should be empowered to design the future they want. But it also demonstrates to local decision-makers the interconnectedness of our food and land use system and the urgent need for more collaboration to converge local and global priorities.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2023-05-24
    Description: Many widely used observational data sets are comprised of several overlapping instrument records. While data inter-calibration techniques often yield continuous and reliable data for trend analysis, less attention is generally paid to maintaining higher-order statistics such as variance and autocorrelation. A growing body of work uses these metrics to quantify the stability or resilience of a system under study and potentially to anticipate an approaching critical transition in the system. Exploring the degree to which changes in resilience indicators such as the variance or autocorrelation can be attributed to non-stationary characteristics of the measurement process – rather than actual changes in the dynamical properties of the system – is important in this context. In this work we use both synthetic and empirical data to explore how changes in the noise structure of a data set are propagated into the commonly used resilience metrics lag-one autocorrelation and variance. We focus on examples from remotely sensed vegetation indicators such as vegetation optical depth and the normalized difference vegetation index from different satellite sources. We find that time series resulting from mixing signals from sensors with varied uncertainties and covering overlapping time spans can lead to biases in inferred resilience changes. These biases are typically more pronounced when resilience metrics are aggregated (for example, by land-cover type or region), whereas estimates for individual time series remain reliable at reasonable sensor signal-to-noise ratios. Our work provides guidelines for the treatment and aggregation of multi-instrument data in studies of critical transitions and resilience.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2023-05-24
    Description: This paper presents a review of concepts related to wildfire risk assessment, including the determination of fire ignition and propagation (fire danger), the extent to which fire may spatially overlap with valued assets (exposure), and the potential losses and resilience to those losses (vulnerability). This is followed by a brief discussion of how these concepts can be integrated and connected to mitigation and adaptation efforts. We then review operational fire risk systems in place in various parts of the world. Finally, we propose an integrated fire risk system being developed under the FirEUrisk European project, as an example of how the different risk components (including danger, exposure and vulnerability) can be generated and combined into synthetic risk indices to provide a more comprehensive wildfire risk assessment, but also to consider where and on what variables reduction efforts should be stressed and to envisage policies to be better adapted to future fire regimes. Climate and socio-economic changes entail that wildfires are becoming even more a critical environmental hazard; extreme fires are observed in many areas of the world that regularly experience fire, yet fire activity is also increasing in areas where wildfires were previously rare. To mitigate the negative impacts of fire, those responsible for managing risk must leverage the information available through the risk assessment process, along with an improved understanding on how the various components of risk can be targeted to improve and optimize the many strategies for mitigation and adaptation to an increasing fire risk.
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  • 48
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    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Publication Date: 2023-05-24
    Description: The increasing impacts of climate change require strategies for climate adaptation. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are one type of multi-sectorial impact models with which the effects of multiple interacting processes in the terrestrial biosphere under climate change can be studied. The complexity of DGVMs is increasing as more and more processes, especially for plant physiology, are implemented. Therefore, there is a growing demand for increasing the computational performance of the underlying algorithms as well as ensuring their numerical accuracy. One way to approach this issue is to analyse the routines which have the potential for improved computational efficiency and/or increased accuracy when applying sophisticated mathematical methods. In this paper, the Farquhar-Collatz photosynthesis model under water stress as implemented in the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land DGVM (4.0.002) was examined. We found that the numerical solution of a nonlinear equation, so far solved with the Bisection method, could be significantly improved by using Newton's method instead. The latter requires the computation of the derivative of the underlying function which is presented. Model simulations show a significant lower number of iterations to solve the equation numerically and an overall run time reduction of the model of about 16 % depending on the chosen accuracy. The Farquhar-Collatz photosynthesis model forms the core component in many DGVMs and land-surface models. An update in the numerical solution of the nonlinear equation can therefore be applied to similar photosynthesis models. Furthermore, this exercise can serve as an example for improving computationally costly routines while improving their mathematical accuracy.
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  • 49
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    Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)
    Publication Date: 2023-05-25
    Description: This profile provides an overview of projected climate parameters and related impacts on different sectors in Eastern Africa until 2080 under different climate change scenarios (called Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). RCP2.6 represents the low emissions scenario that aims to keep global warming likely below 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. RCP6.0 repre- sents a medium to high emissions scenario that is likely to exceed 2 °C. Model projections do not account for effects of future socio-economic impacts, unless indicated otherwise.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2023-05-30
    Description: This paper tests whether need or political economy factors determine the allocation of humanitarian aid in the wake of the 2015/16 winter disaster in Mongolia. The identification strategy exploits the exogenous nature of the extremely cold, snowy winter and its spatial variation across Mongolia as well as the fact that the Government defined clear criteria of need across districts based on meteorological risk projections. Using rich district-level data, we distinguish between humanitarian aid delivered by the Mongolian Government and by international donors at the extensive margin (whether a district received any aid) and intensive margin (targeted households per district). Results show that projected need is the strongest predictor for the allocation of international humanitarian aid across districts. Projected need is less relevant for the allocation of governmental humanitarian aid. We do not find evidence that political alignment or core voter considerations matter for either governmental or international humanitarian aid in this young democracy.
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2023-05-30
    Description: Shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios represent a consistent set of socioeconomic assumptions and a major input of Integrated Assessment Models on climate change. This study added a driver that is missing so far in the SSP framework - the evolution of the sectoral structure of economies. A newly constructed set of structural change scenarios is presented. These structural change scenarios represent a well-known characteristic that accompanies the process of economic growth and development - the reallocation of economic activity between the three major sectors agriculture, manufacturing and services. While we construct scenarios for the sectoral shares of labor, value-added and energy based on historical data and an econometric approach, which comes with some limitation, these scenarios are linked to the SSP GDP scenarios and hence implicitly capture properties of the narratives underlying them. We find that the pattern and speed of structural change differ under different SSPs. Moreover, while the scenarios for developing countries reproduce structural change patterns (e.g., hump-shape of manufacturing labor share), observed for developed countries in the past, the projected transformation, in particular the reduction of labor shares in the agricultural sector, represents a tremendous challenge.
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2023-06-06
    Description: We introduce a new model consisting of globally coupled high-dimensional generalized limit-cycle oscillators, which explicitly incorporates the role of amplitude dynamics of individual units in the collective dynamics. In the limit of weak coupling, our model reduces to the D-dimensional Kuramoto phase model, akin to a similar classic construction of the well-known Kuramoto phase model from weakly coupled two-dimensional limit-cycle oscillators. For the practically important case of D=3, the incoherence of the model is rigorously proved to be stable for negative coupling (K〈0) but unstable for positive coupling (K〉0); the locked states are shown to exist if K〉0; in particular, the onset of amplitude death is theoretically predicted. For D≥2, the discrete and continuous spectra for both locked states and amplitude death are governed by two general formulas. Our proposed D-dimensional model is physically more reasonable, because it is no longer constrained by fixed amplitude dynamics, which puts the recent studies of the D-dimensional Kuramoto phase model on a stronger footing by providing a more general framework for D-dimensional limit-cycle oscillators.
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2023-06-06
    Description: Background: Growing evidence suggests low and high maternal hemoglobin (Hb) concentrations may have adverse consequences for maternal and child health. There remain questions on specific Hb thresholds to define anemia and high Hb as well as how cutoffs may vary by anemia etiology and timing of assessment. - Methods: We conducted an updated systematic review (using PubMed and Cochrane Review) on low (〈 110 g/L) and high (≥ 130 g/L) maternal Hb concentrations and associations with a range of maternal and infant health outcomes. We examined associations by timing of Hb assessment (preconception; first, second, and third trimesters, as well as at any time point in pregnancy), varying cutoffs used for defining low and high hemoglobin concentrations and performed stratified analyses by iron-deficiency anemia. We conducted meta-analyses to obtain odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals. Results: The updated systematic review included 148 studies. Low maternal Hb at any time point in pregnancy was associated with: low birthweight, LBW (OR (95% CI) 1.28 (1.22–1.35)), very low birthweight, VLBW (2.15 (1.47–3.13)), preterm birth, PTB (1.35 (1.29–1.42)), small-for-gestational age, SGA (1.11 (1.02–1.19)), stillbirth 1.43 (1.24–1.65)), perinatal mortality (1.75 (1.28–2.39)), neonatal mortality (1.25 (1.16–1.34), postpartum hemorrhage (1.69 (1.45–1.97)), transfusion (3.68 (2.58–5.26)), pre-eclampsia (1.57 (1.23–2.01)), and prenatal depression (1.44 (1.24–1.68)). For maternal mortality, the OR was higher for Hb 〈 90 (4.83 (2.17–10.74)) than for Hb 〈 100 (2.87 (1.08–7.67)). High maternal Hb was associated with: VLBW (1.35 (1.16–1.57)), PTB (1.12 (1.00-1.25)), SGA (1.17 (1.09–1.25)), stillbirth (1.32 (1.09–1.60)), maternal mortality (2.01 (1.12–3.61)), gestational diabetes (1.71 (1.19–2.46)), and pre-eclampsia (1.34 (1.16–1.56)). Stronger associations were noted earlier in pregnancy for low Hb and adverse birth outcomes while the role of timing of high Hb was inconsistent. Lower Hb cutoffs were associated with greater odds of poor outcomes; for high Hb, data were too limited to identify patterns. Information on anemia etiology was limited; relationships did not vary by iron-deficiency anemia. - Conclusion: Both low and high maternal Hb concentrations during pregnancy are strong predictors of adverse maternal and infant health outcomes. Additional research is needed to establish healthy reference ranges and design effective interventions to optimize maternal Hb during pregnancy.
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2023-06-07
    Description: This experimental study investigates the dynamical transition from stable operation to thermoacoustic instability in a turbulent bluff-body stabilised dump combustor. We conduct experiments to acquire acoustic pressure and local heat release rate fluctuations and use them to characterise this transition as we decrease the equivalence ratio towards a fuel-lean setting. More importantly, we observe a significant increase in local heat release rate fluctuations at critical locations well before thermoacoustic instability occurs. One of these critical locations is the stagnation zone in front of the bluff-body. By strategically positioning slots (perforations) on the bluff-body, we ensure the reduction of the growth of local heat release rate fluctuations at the stagnation zone near the bluff-body well before the onset of thermoacoustic instability. We show that this reduction in local heat release rate fluctuations inhibits the transition to thermoacoustic instability. We find that modified configurations of the bluff-body that do not quench the local heat release rate fluctuations at the stagnation zone result in the transition to thermoacoustic instability. We also reveal that an effective suppression strategy based on the growth of local heat release rate fluctuations requires an optimisation of the slots' area-ratio for a given bluff-body position. Further, the suppression strategy also depends on the spatial distribution of perforations on the bluff-body. Notably, an inappropriate distribution of the slots, which does not quench the local heat release rate fluctuations at the stagnation zone but creates new critical regions, may even result in a dramatic increase in the amplitudes of pressure oscillations.
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  • 55
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    In:  Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
    Publication Date: 2023-06-07
    Description: It is widely reported that the functional connectivity estimated by statistical correlations is often varying within nonlinear systems. Generally, these varying correlations between time series are detected by sliding windows. Still, it is unclear how these correlations evolve within a chaotic system. This work intends to give a quantitative framework to identify the dynamics of correlations within chaotic systems. To this end, we embed the pairwise statistical correlations (from time series within a system) into a correlation-based system by sliding windows. This allows for detecting the dynamics of correlations within a complex system through the embedded correlation-based system. Three chaotic systems (i.e., the Lorenz, the Rossler, and the Chen systems) are employed as benchmark examples. We find that both linear and nonlinear correlations within three chaotic systems show chaotic behaviors on some short window sizes, then transit to non-chaotic states with window size increasing. Moreover, the chaotic dynamics of nonlinear correlations exhibit higher uncertainty than the linear one and the original chaotic systems. The chaotic behaviors of correlations within chaotic systems give another evidence of the difficulty of prediction for chaotic systems. Meanwhile, the identified state transitions (concerning the window size) of correlations may provide a quantitative rule to select an appropriate window size for sliding windows.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2023-06-07
    Description: Hydropower is the world’s largest and most widely used renewable energy source. It is expected that climate and land use changes, as well as hydraulic engineering measures, will have profound impacts on future hydropower potential. In this study, the hydropower potential of the Bafing watershed was estimated for the near future (P1: 2035–2065) and the far future (P2: 2065–2095). For this purpose, the moderate scenario ssp 126 and the medium–high scenario ssp 370 were used to explore possible climate impacts. In three management scenarios, we tested the interaction of the existing Manantali Dam with two planned dams (Koukoutamba and Boureya) using an ecohydrological water management model. The results show that, under ssp 126, a 6% increase in annual river flow would result in a 3% increase in hydropower potential in the near future compared with the historical period of 1984–2014. In the far future, the annual river flow would decrease by 6%, resulting in an 8% decrease in hydropower potential. Under ssp 370, the hydropower potential would decrease by 0.7% and 14% in the near and far future, respectively. The investment in the planned dams has benefits, such as an increase in hydropower potential and improved flood protection. However, the dams will be negatively affected by climate change in the future (except in the near future (P1) under ssp 126), and their operation will result in hydropower potential losses of about 11% at the Manantali Dam. Therefore, to mitigate the effects of climate change and adjust the operation of the three dams, it is essential to develop new adaptation measures through an optimization program or an energy mix combining hydro, solar, and wind power.
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  • 57
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    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Publication Date: 2023-06-07
    Description: Earth system models (ESMs) are the primary tools for investigating future Earth system states at timescales from decades to centuries, especially in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. State-of-the-art ESMs can reproduce the observational global mean temperature anomalies of the last 150 years. Nevertheless, ESMs need further improvements, most importantly regarding (i) the large spread in their estimates of climate sensitivity, i.e., the temperature response to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases; (ii) the modeled spatial patterns of key variables such as temperature and precipitation; (iii) their representation of extreme weather events; and (iv) their representation of multistable Earth system components and the ability to predict associated abrupt transitions. Here, we argue that making ESMs automatically differentiable has a huge potential to advance ESMs, especially with respect to these key shortcomings. First, automatic differentiability would allow objective calibration of ESMs, i.e., the selection of optimal values with respect to a cost function for a large number of free parameters, which are currently tuned mostly manually. Second, recent advances in machine learning (ML) and in the number, accuracy, and resolution of observational data promise to be helpful with at least some of the above aspects because ML may be used to incorporate additional information from observations into ESMs. Automatic differentiability is an essential ingredient in the construction of such hybrid models, combining process-based ESMs with ML components. We document recent work showcasing the potential of automatic differentiation for a new generation of substantially improved, data-informed ESMs.
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2023-06-07
    Description: During the last glacial interval, the Northern Hemisphere climate was punctuated by a series of abrupt changes between two characteristic climate regimes. The existence of stadial (cold) and interstadial (milder) periods is typically attributed to a hypothesised bistability in the glacial North Atlantic climate system, allowing for rapid transitions from the stadial to the interstadial state – the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events – and more gradual yet still fairly abrupt reverse shifts. The physical mechanisms driving these regime transitions remain debated. DO events are characterised by substantial warming over Greenland and a reorganisation of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, which are evident from concomitant shifts in the δ18O ratios and dust concentration records from Greenland ice cores. Treating the combined δ18O and dust record obtained by the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) as a realisation of a two-dimensional, time-homogeneous, and Markovian stochastic process, we present a reconstruction of its underlying deterministic drift based on the leading-order terms of the Kramers–Moyal equation. The analysis reveals two basins of attraction in the two-dimensional state space that can be identified with the stadial and interstadial regimes. The drift term of the dust exhibits a double-fold bifurcation structure, while – in contrast to prevailing assumptions – the δ18O component of the drift is clearly mono-stable. This suggests that the last glacial's Greenland temperatures should not be regarded as an intrinsically bistable climate variable. Instead, the two-regime nature of the δ18O record is apparently inherited from a coupling to another bistable climate process. In contrast, the bistability evidenced in the dust drift points to the presence of two stable circulation regimes of the last glacial's Northern Hemisphere atmosphere.
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  • 59
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    In:  National Science Review
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Language: English
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: Women and children in Bangladesh face high levels of micronutrient deficiencies from inadequate diets. We evaluated the impact of a Homestead Food Production (HFP) intervention on poultry production, as a pathway outcome, and women's and children's egg consumption, as secondary outcomes, as part of the Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition cluster-randomized trial in Sylhet division, Bangladesh. The 3-year intervention (2015−2018) promoted home gardening, poultry rearing, and nutrition counseling. We randomly allocated 96 clusters to intervention (48 clusters; 1337 women) or control (48 clusters; 1368 women). Children 〈 3 years old born to participants were enrolled during the trial. We analyzed poultry production indicators, measured annually, and any egg consumption (24-h recall), measured every 2−6 months for women and their children. We conducted intention-to-treat analyses using mixed-effects logistic regression models with repeat measures, with minimal adjustment to increase precision. Poultry ownership increased by 16% points (pp) and egg production by 13 pp in the final intervention year. The intervention doubled women's odds of egg consumption in the final year (Odds Ratio [OR]: 2.31, 95% CI: 1.68−3.18), with positive effects sustained 1-year post-intervention (OR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.16−2.15). Children's odds of egg consumption were increased in the final year (OR: 3.04, 95% CI: 1.87−4.95). Poultry ownership was associated with women's egg consumption, accounting for 12% of the total intervention effect, but not with children's egg consumption. Our findings demonstrate that an HFP program can have longer-term positive effects on poultry production and women's and children's diets.
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: The mechanisms by which a protein's 3D structure can be determined based on its amino acid sequence have long been one of the key mysteries of biophysics. Often simplistic models, such as those derived from geometric constraints, capture bulk real-world 3D protein-protein properties well. One approach is using protein contact maps (PCMs) to better understand proteins' properties. In this study, we explore the emergent behaviour of contact maps for different geometrically constrained models and compare them to real-world protein systems. Specifically, we derive an analytical approximation for the distribution of amino acid distances, denoted as P(s), using a mean-field approach based on a geometric constraint model. This approximation is then validated for amino acid distance distributions generated from a 2D and 3D version of the geometrically constrained random interaction model. For real protein data, we show how the analytical approximation can be used to fit amino acid distance distributions of protein chain lengths of L ≈ 100, L ≈ 200, and L ≈ 300 generated from two different methods of evaluating a PCM, a simple cutoff based method and a shadow map based method. We present evidence that geometric constraints are sufficient to model the amino acid distance distributions of protein chains in bulk and amino acid sequences only play a secondary role, regardless of the definition of the PCM.
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  • 62
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    CERN / Zenodo
    Publication Date: 2023-06-13
    Description: Data and Julia code for reproducing figures of Marwan et al, Chaos, 2023
    Language: English
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2023-06-16
    Description: This paper contributes to the theoretical understanding of strategic interactions of governments on global markets for fossil resources and for capital. We analyze carbon taxes and subsidies and their impact on national welfare in a two country model with markets for capital and fossil resources, and asymmetric resource endowments. Resource poor countries have an incentive to tax the use of fossil fuels to appropriate the resource rent. Resource rich countries subsidize fossil fuel use to attract production factors in order to increase national income. We have two main results. First, we demonstrate that capital mobility has a taming effect on the incentives to tax and to subsidize resources. When taxing resources not only affects the international resource market, but also the international capital market, taxation is more distortionary and is thus more costly to governments. Second, while early studies of asymmetric tax competition found that small countries in terms of population are winners of tax competition, we show that with asymmetric resource endowments but a symmetric population size, there are no winners. Then, the Nash equilibrium of carbon tax competition is the least desirable outcome in terms of social welfare. A game structure similar to a Prisoner’s Dilemma emerges and cooperation makes Pareto improvements over the Nash equilibrium possible.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2023-06-16
    Description: Global warming is expected to exacerbate heat stress. Additionally, biogeophysical effects of land cover and land management changes (LCLMC) could substantially alter temperature and relative humidity locally and non-locally. Thereby, LCLMC could affect the occupational capacity to safely perform physical work under hot environments (labor capacity). However, these effects have never been quantified globally using a multi-model setup. Building on results from stylized sensitivity experiments of (a) cropland expansion, (b) irrigation expansion, and (c) afforestation conducted by three fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs), we assess the local as well as non-local effects on heat stress and labor capacity. We found that LCLMC leads to substantial changes in temperature; however, the concomitant changes in humidity could largely diminish the combined impact on moist heat. Moreover, cropland expansion and afforestation cause inconsistent responses of day- and night-time temperature, which has strong implications for labor capacity. Across the ESMs, the results are mixed in terms of sign and magnitude. Overall, LCLMC result in non-negligible impacts on heat stress and labor capacity in low-latitude regions during the warmest seasons. In some locations, the changes of monthly average labor capacity, which are induced by the local effects of individual LCLMC options, could reach −14 and +15 percentage points. Thus, LCLMC-induced impacts on heat stress and their consequences for adaptation should be accounted for when designing LCLMC-related policies to ensure sustainable development.
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  • 65
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    CERN / Zenodo
    Publication Date: 2023-06-20
    Description: V2.0.1: a correction was made to disaggregation of GDP, as the code incorrectly used 50:50 ratio of labour to capital instead of 60:40 ratio as in the methodology. The output GDP and uncertainty files were recomputed.
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2023-06-20
    Description: This dataset provides all output data generated in the standard settings of HANZE v2.0 model. The 100-m pan-European maps (GeoTIFF) provide gridded totals of five variables for years 1870-2020 for 42 countries.
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2023-06-20
    Description: Beaufils, T.; Berthet, E.; Ward, H.; & Wenz, L. (2023). Assessing different European Carbon Border Adjustment implementations and their impacts on trade partners. Nature Communications Earth & Environment. - Supporting code and data
    Language: English
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2023-06-20
    Description: This repository contains the data used to produce all figures in Beringer et al. "CO2 fertilization effect may balance climate change impacts on oil palm cultivation".
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2023-06-20
    Description: We provide three scripts for MATLAB and Octave to extract grey values from scanned images (extract_greyvalues.m), to concatenate grey value tracks (combine_tracks.m), and for interpolation and uncertainty estimation of the grey value record chronology_with_uncert.m. Use for Octave was tested with version 6.2.0 and for MATLAB with version 2023.
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2023-07-06
    Description: Data for the publication 'Fire may prevent future Amazon forest recovery after large-scale deforestation' in Communication Earth and Environment by Drüke et al. 2023
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2023-07-06
    Description: The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4027033). Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2023-07-07
    Description: These are the jupyter notebooks, which are used to create the figures for the paper: Interpolation and sampling effects on recurrence quantification measures
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2023-07-11
    Description: Land use and Land cover change (LULCC) is a major global problem, and projecting change is critical for policy decision-making. Understanding LULCCs at the watershed level is essential for transboundary river basin management. The present study aims to analyse the past and future LULCCs in two significant watersheds of the Senegal River basin (SRB) in West Africa: Bafing and Faleme. This study used Landsat images from 1986, 2006 and 2020 and the Random Forest classification method to analyze past LULCCs in these two watersheds. The results revealed: In Bafing, vegetation, settlement, agricultural areas and water increased, while the bareground decreased significantly between 1986-2020. In Faleme, two periods have different trends. Between 1986-2006, vegetation, settlement, agricultural areas and water increased, while bareground decreased. Between 2006-2020, settlement increased, while vegetation, agricul-tural areas, water and bareground decreased. To predict LULCCs in 2050 under business-as- usual assumptions, the Multilayer Perceptron and Marcov Chain model (MLP-MC) was used. The MLP-MC shows better results on Bafing than on Faleme but without questioning its application on the two watersheds. Bafing has seen a trend towards ”more people, more trees”, while Faleme has seen a trend towards ”more people, more deforestation”. These results contribute to develop appropriate land management policies and strategies to achieve or to maintain sustainable development in the SRB.
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  • 74
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    In:  IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems
    Publication Date: 2023-07-14
    Description: This article investigates the group consensus problem for heterogeneous multiagent systems with time delays via pinning control. Under the designed control protocol, agents in the system could be grouped arbitrarily, and agents in the same subgroup could converge to a constraint position. Meanwhile, the kinetics of agents in the same subgroup could be same or different. Both the fixed and switching topologies are considered. Based on the frequency domain method and stability theory, sufficient conditions for the system achieve group consensus are derived. Finally, several numerical examples are presented to verify the performance of the control protocol.
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2023-07-14
    Description: In this paper, a network of van der Pol oscillators with extended nonlinearity is considered in the context of studies on symmetry-breaking phenomena. The van der Pol oscillator with extended nonlinearity has been widely considered as a model for coherent oscillations in enzyme–substrate systems. The particularity of this model is its multistability known as birhythmicity. Due to this feature of the local dynamics, the coupled dynamics shows a rich variety of symmetry-breaking phenomena, among which peculiar chimera and solitary states involving two types of attractors, namely a large limit cycle and a smaller attractor with quasiperiodic-like oscillations. The units of the main incoherent regions of a pattern of this two-attractor chimera evolve only on the large limit cycle whereas those of the main coherent regions evolve only on the smaller attractor. Also, as a consequence of birhythmicity, the mean phase velocity profile of this chimera pattern shows two levels of frequency, each level corresponding to each attractor. On the other hand, the frequencies of oscillations of the solitary units of the solitary states found there are different from the common frequency of oscillations in the coherent cluster, contrary to the classical solitary states for which all the network units are frequency locked. Interestingly, a phenomenon of coupling-induced birhythmicity is found here: two-attractor patterns emerge in the considered network with monorhythmic local dynamics. This study deepens our understanding of patterns formation in coupled multistable systems.
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2023-07-14
    Description: Signal propagation in complex networks drives epidemics, is responsible for information going viral, promotes trust and facilitates moral behavior in social groups, enables the development of misinformation detection algorithms, and it is the main pillar supporting the fascinating cognitive abilities of the brain, to name just some examples. The geometry of signal propagation is determined as much by the network topology as it is by the diverse forms of nonlinear interactions that may take place between the nodes. Advances are therefore often system dependent and have limited translational potential across domains. Given over two decades worth of research on the subject, the time is thus certainly ripe, indeed the need is urgent, for a comprehensive review of signal propagation in complex networks. We here first survey different models that determine the nature of interactions between the nodes, including epidemic models, Kuramoto models, diffusion models, cascading failure models, and models describing neuronal dynamics. Secondly, we cover different types of complex networks and their topologies, including temporal networks, multilayer networks, and neural networks. Next, we cover network time series analysis techniques that make use of signal propagation, including network correlation analysis, information transfer and nonlinear correlation tools, network reconstruction, source localization and link prediction, as well as approaches based on artificial intelligence. Lastly, we review applications in epidemiology, social dynamics, neuroscience, engineering, and robotics. Taken together, we thus provide the reader with an up-to-date review of the complexities associated with the network’s role in propagating signals in the hope of better harnessing this to devise innovative applications across engineering, the social and natural sciences as well as to inspire future research.
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2023-07-14
    Description: This paper studies the mean-square consensus of second-order hybrid multi-agent systems over jointly connected topologies. Systems with time-varying delay and multiplicative noise are considered. The date sampling control technique is adopted. Through matrix transformation, a positive definite matrix transformed by the Laplacian matrix is obtained, where the Laplacian matrix is a connected subgraph divided by the jointly connected topologies. By using graph theory, matrix theory and Lyapunov stability theory, sufficient conditions and the upper bound of time delays for the mean-square consensus are obtained. Finally, several simulations are presented to demonstrate the validity of the control method.
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2023-07-14
    Description: In this paper we investigate the spatial patterns and features of meteorological droughts in Europe using concepts and methods derived from complex network theory. Using event synchronization analysis, we uncover robust meteorological drought continental networks based on the co-occurrence of these events at different locations within a season from 1981 to 2020 and compare the results for four accumulation periods of rainfall. Each continental network is then further examined to unveil regional clusters which are characterized in terms of droughts' geographical propagation and source–sink systems. While introducing new methodologies in general climate network reconstruction from raw data, our approach brings out key aspects concerning drought spatial dynamics, which could potentially support droughts' forecast.
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2023-07-14
    Description: Percolation establishes the connectivity of complex networks and is one of the most fundamental critical phenomena for the study of complex systems. On simple networks, percolation displays a second-order phase transition; on multiplex networks, the percolation transition can become discontinuous. However, little is known about percolation in networks with higher-order interactions. Here, we show that percolation can be turned into a fully fledged dynamical process when higher-order interactions are taken into account. By introducing signed triadic interactions, in which a node can regulate the interactions between two other nodes, we define triadic percolation. We uncover that in this paradigmatic model the connectivity of the network changes in time and that the order parameter undergoes a period doubling and a route to chaos. We provide a general theory for triadic percolation which accurately predicts the full phase diagram on random graphs as confirmed by extensive numerical simulations. We find that triadic percolation on real network topologies reveals a similar phenomenology. These results radically change our understanding of percolation and may be used to study complex systems in which the functional connectivity is changing in time dynamically and in a non-trivial way, such as in neural and climate networks.
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2023-07-18
    Description: This repository contains code and data for the reproduction of analysis from: Collins-Sowah, Peron A., Adjin, Kougblenou C., Henning, Christian H.C.A. and Kanu, Edmond A. (2023)
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2023-07-18
    Description: Using empirical data from a nationally representative farm household survey in Senegal, this study evaluated the impact of different risk management strategies employed by farm households on technical efficiency (TE). The findings of the study suggest that risk management has implications for TE. We find that the use of ex-post risk management strategies is associated with relatively higher technical efficiencies with respect to the meta-frontier compared to other risk management strategies. Households employing only ex-ante risk management strategies were observed to be the least technically efficient in comparison to households employing other risk management strategies. The findings also suggest that managing production risks using multiple strategies does not necessarily result in the highest TE gain compared to the use of single strategies. The findings underscore the need to evaluate the trade-offs and likely consequences of risk management approaches used by farm households to provide countermeasures to deal with any adverse related effects.
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2023-07-18
    Description: The European aviation sector must substantially reduce climate impacts to reach net-zero goals. This reduction, however, must not be limited to flight CO2 emissions since such a narrow focus leaves up to 80% of climate impacts unaccounted for. Based on rigorous life-cycle assessment and a time-dependent quantification of non-CO2 climate impacts, here we show that, from a technological standpoint, using electricity-based synthetic jet fuels and compensating climate impacts via direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) can enable climate-neutral aviation. However, with a continuous increase in air traffic, synthetic jet fuel produced with electricity from renewables would exert excessive pressure on economic and natural resources. Alternatively, compensating climate impacts of fossil jet fuel via DACCS would require massive CO2 storage volumes and prolong dependence on fossil fuels. Here, we demonstrate that a European climate-neutral aviation will fly if air traffic is reduced to limit the scale of the climate impacts to mitigate.
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2023-07-18
    Description: Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses.
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Migration is a natural behavior and an integral part of many species’ life cycles. Although most commonly found in many species of mammals and birds, it also occurs in several other species such as fish, insects, etc. Animals migrate in response to the spatial and temporal variability of environmental factors, such as food availability, habitat safety, climate, and mating opportunities. The present study investigates the role of middle predator’s migration (immigration and emigration) in the dynamics of a well-known tri-trophic food chain model. We perform extensive numerical simulations of this model system with simultaneous variation of migration and another system parameter related to the half-saturation constant of the middle predator, and present a collection of high-resolution isospike and Lyapunov exponent diagrams drawn in the biparametric space illustrating the intricate nature of the system dynamics. We mainly find that a moderate amount of migration (both immigration and emigration) promotes regularity in the dynamics of the system. High migration rates, however, lead to the extinction of one or more species from the system. The isospike diagrams uncover several periodic windows of different periodicity inside the chaotic region, some of them crossing one another. We demonstrate with the aid of phase portraits and basins of attraction that these overlappings induce bistability between coexisting attractors. We notice that these basins have a self-similar nature. Additionally, the system exhibits shrimp-shaped periodic structures, period-bubbling route to chaos, and multiple-times stability switching. We also include several animations related to stability switching and the basin of attraction for better visualization of the dynamics of the system.
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change impacts based on physical impact models. We show that with medium estimates for damage functions, global damages are in the range of 10% to 12% of GDP by 2100 in a baseline scenario with 3 °C temperature change, and about 2% in a well-below 2 °C scenario. These damages are much higher than previous estimates in benefit-cost studies, resulting in optimal temperatures below 2 °C with central estimates of damages and discount rates. Moreover, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to 3.9, even without considering damages that could not be accounted for, such as biodiversity losses, health and tipping points.
    Language: English
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Multistep prediction is an open challenge in many real-world systems for a long time. Despite the advantages of previous approaches, e.g., step-by-step iteration, they have some shortcomings, such as accumulated errors, high cost, and low interpretation. To this end, Gaussian process regression and delay embedding are used to create a combination framework, namely spatial–temporal mapping (STM). Delay embedding is employed to reconstruct an isomorphic dynamical structure with the original system through a single time series, which provides the fundamental architecture for multistep predictions (interpretation). Gaussian process regression is used to achieve predictions by identifying a mapping between the reconstructed dynamical structure and the original structure. This combination framework outputs multistep ahead predictions in a single step (low cost). We test the feasibility of STM for both model systems, including the 3-species ecology system, the Lorenz chaotic system, and the Rossler chaotic system, and several real-world systems, involving energy, finance, life science, and climate. STM framework outperforms traditional iterative approaches and has the potential for many other real-world systems.
    Language: English
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Higher Education Institutions (HEI) can contribute to climate change mitigation through reductions in food-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We examined the impact of serving a low-red meat menu 1 day per week on the GHG emissions associated with residential dining halls at a university setting in the USA. We also estimated the potential impacts of replacing meat with lower-emission proteins on GHG emissions and cost using hypothetical substitution scenarios. Food items procured to prepare daily meals were linked to GHG emissions values. During one academic term, a “Sustainable Mondays” intervention was implemented, wherein dining halls reduced red meat dishes on Mondays. We compared GHG emissions on Mondays with Wednesdays. We then developed substitution scenarios that replaced beef, red meat, or all meats and fish with lower-emission protein sources on a per gram of protein basis. Overall, the University dining service food procurement emitted 4661 metric tonnes CO2-eq in one academic term, of which 81% came from animal-source foods. Dining halls reduced red meat procurement by 81% on “Sustainable Mondays,” resulting in 240 fewer metric tonnes of CO2-eq (− 31% compared to Wednesdays). We estimated that replacing red meat with lower-emission meat and red meat/poultry with fish or plant-based proteins could reduce GHG emissions by 14–46%. Our study suggests there is considerable potential for HEI to reduce climate impacts through simple replacements of red meat with lower-emission proteins. Achieving the necessary scales of meat reduction in HEI likely requires institution-wide transformation with changes to food procurement, dining hall choice architecture, and education for students and staff.
    Language: English
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Anthropogenic pressures and climate change are altering water flows worldwide. Better understanding, new economic thinking and an international governance framework are needed to stave off catastrophe.
    Language: English
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Many companies have made zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs) to reduce carbon emissions and biodiversity losses linked to tropical commodities. However, ZDCs conserve areas primarily based on tree cover and aboveground carbon, potentially leading to the unintended consequence that agricultural expansion could be encouraged in biomes outside tropical rainforest, which also support important biodiversity. We examine locations suitable for zero-deforestation expansion of commercial oil palm, which is increasingly expanding outside the tropical rainforest biome, by generating empirical models of global suitability for rainfed and irrigated oil palm. We find that tropical grassy and dry forest biomes contain 〉50% of the total area of land climatically suitable for rainfed oil palm expansion in compliance with ZDCs (following the High Carbon Stock Approach; in locations outside urban areas and cropland), and that irrigation could double the area suitable for expansion in these biomes. Within these biomes, ZDCs fail to protect areas of high vertebrate richness from oil palm expansion. To prevent unintended consequences of ZDCs and minimize the environmental impacts of oil palm expansion, policies and governance for sustainable development and conservation must expand focus from rainforests to all tropical biomes.
    Language: English
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Globally, deforestation produces anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing substantially to climate change. Forest cover changes also have large impacts on ecosystem services. Deforestation is the dominant type of land cover change in tropical regions, and this land cover change relates to distinct causes recognized as direct deforestation drivers. Understanding these drivers requires a significant effort. Further, GHG emissions due to deforestation are quantified only in terms of biomass removal, while linking emissions from soil organic carbon (SOC) loss to deforestation is lacking. A closer picture of associated ecosystem service changes due to deforestation is also needed. We analyze for 2001-2010: (1) the magnitudes of deforestation drivers, (2) the related carbon loss, and (3) the ecosystem service value change. On the global scale, agriculture (90.3%) is the primary deforestation driver, where grassland expansion contributed the most (37.5%). The deforestation drivers differ in magnitude and spatial distribution on the continental scale. The total carbon loss by biomass removal and SOC loss accounted for 8 797 Mt C and 1 185 Mt C, respectively. Furthermore, tropical deforestation caused the ESV loss of 408 billion Int.$ yr-1, while the resulting land cover has the ESV of 345 billion Int.$ yr-1. Our findings highlight that agriculture substantially contributes to global carbonloss and ecosystem service loss due to deforestation. The deforestation drivers differ in magnitude and distribution for different continents. Further, we highlight the danger of putting a monetary value on nature.
    Language: English
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Reliable information on climate impacts can support planning processes to make the agricultural sectorwhich has cascading effects on food security, livelihoods, and the security situation – more resilient. Subsequently, uncertainties in past and future climate data need to be decreased and better understood. In this study, we analysed the quality and limitations of different past and future climate data sets to be used for agricultural impact assessments in West Africa. The high differences between the three analysed past climate data sets underline the high observational uncertainty in West Africa and show the influence of selecting the observational data set for the bias-adjustment of climate model data. The ten CMIP6 (Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6) models show regional and model-dependent biases with similar systematic biases as have been observed in earlier CMIP 40 versions. Although the bias-adjusted version of this data (ISIMIP3b - Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) aligns overall well with observations, we could detect some regional strong deviations from observations for some agroclimatological indices. The use of the multi-model 43 ensemble mean has resulted in an improved agreement of CMIP6 and the bias-adjusted ISIMIP3b data with observations. Choosing a sub-ensemble of bias-adjusted models could only improve the performance of the ensemble mean locally but not over the whole region. Therefore, our results 46 suggest the use of the whole model ensemble for agricultural impact assessments in West Africa. While averaging the impact results over all climate models can serve as a best guess, the spread of the results over all models should be considered to give insights into the uncertainties. This study can support agricultural impact modelling in quantifying climate risk hotspots as well as suggesting suitable adaptation measures to increase the resilience of the agricultural sector in West Africa.
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: We investigate the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the extreme temperature and precipitation events in Central Asia (CA) during the last 60 years. We bias-adjust and downscale two Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) ensemble outputs, with natural (labelled as hist-nat, driven only by solar and volcanic forcing) and natural plus anthropogenic forcing (labelled as hist, driven by all-forcings), to 0.25∘×0.25∘ spatial resolution. Each ensemble contains six models from ISIMIP, based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The presented downscaling methodology is necessary to create a reliable climate state for regional climate impact studies. Our analysis shows a higher risk of extreme heat events (factor 4 in signal-to-noise ratio) over large parts of CA due to anthropogenic influence. Furthermore, a higher likelihood of extreme precipitation over CA, especially over Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, can be attributed to anthropogenic forcing (over 100% changes in intensity and 20% in frequency). Given that these regions show a high risk of rainfall-triggered landslides and floods during historical times, we report that human-induced climate warming can contribute to extreme precipitation events over vulnerable areas of CA. Our high-resolution data set can be used in impact studies focusing on the attribution of extreme events in CA and is freely available to the scientific community.
    Language: English
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: We consider a conductance-based neuronal model under the action of electromagnetic induction on the membrane potential. We focus on the impact of the magnetic flux on the membrane potential using theoretical methods (such as the harmonic and energy balance methods) and numerical methods (such as the bifurcation diagram and Lyapunov exponent). The strength of the electromagnetic induction is considered as the control parameter. Thus, the system can switch from bistable to monostable behavior at the first critical value of the control parameter. This is done by suppressing the active mode of the neuron and maintaining subthreshold mode until it achieved a second critical value of the control parameter for a quiescent mode. Improving the conductance-based neuronal model by adding electromagnetic induction effects relates different steps in the generation of complex forms of action potential (depolarization) such as spiking, bursting, chaos; and the regulation of the system by the switching to subthreshold oscillations (repolarization) or to a stable state (quiescent state) after a brief phase of the dynamic below the quiescent state (hyperpolarization).
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  • 94
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    In:  European Physical Journal - Special Topics
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Couplings in complex real-world systems are often nonlinear and scale dependent. In many cases, it is crucial to consider a multitude of interlinked variables and the strengths of their correlations to adequately fathom the dynamics of a high-dimensional nonlinear system. We propose a recurrence-based dependence measure that quantifies the relationship between multiple time series based on the predictability of their joint evolution. The statistical analysis of recurrence plots (RPs) is a powerful framework in nonlinear time series analysis that has proven to be effective in addressing many fundamental problems, e.g., regime shift detection and identification of couplings. The recurrence flow through an RP exploits artifacts in the formation of diagonal lines, a structure in RPs that reflects periods of predictable dynamics. Using time-delayed variables of a deterministic uni-/multivariate system, lagged dependencies with potentially many time scales can be captured by the recurrence flow measure. Given an RP, no parameters are required for its computation. We showcase the scope of the method for quantifying lagged nonlinear correlations and put a focus on the delay selection problem in time-delay embedding which is often used for attractor reconstruction. The recurrence flow measure of dependence helps to identify non-uniform delays and appears as a promising foundation for a recurrence-based state space reconstruction algorithm.
    Language: English
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  • 95
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    In:  Nature Climate Change
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: The participation of financial actors is a key design issue in all emissions allowance markets. Although financials perform several necessary market functions, excessive speculation may undermine market functioning. The potential for harm is gaining prominence as tighter emission limits increasingly attract speculators and investors into allowance markets worldwide. However, adequate warning systems and tools to appraise the beneficial and detrimental facets of financial trading are wanting. We develop preliminary elements of a diagnostic toolbox to assess the scale and impacts of speculation and apply it to the EU emissions trading system. This Perspective seeks to inform current policy debates and invites further research to establish speculation-monitoring systems for allowance markets.
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Living within planetary limits requires attention to justice as biophysical boundaries are not inherently just. Through collaboration between natural and social scientists, the Earth Commission defines and operationalizes Earth system justice to ensure that boundaries reduce harm, increase well-being, and reflect substantive and procedural justice. Such stringent boundaries may also affect ‘just access’ to food, water, energy and infrastructure. We show how boundaries may need to be adjusted to reduce harm and increase access, and challenge inequality to ensure a safe and just future for people, other species and the planet. Earth system justice may enable living justly within boundaries.
    Language: English
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Significant detrimental effects of agricultural intensification and specialization are becoming increasingly evident. Reliance on monocultures, few varieties and intensive use of agrochemicals is a major factor in climate change, biodiversity decline, soil health deterioration and pollution, putting our food system at risk. This requires sustainable agricultural processes, such as crop diversification, to be more rapidly and effectively tested, adopted, and scaled. While these processes are typically introduced16 at niche level, they often struggle to scale and to induce broader sustainability transitions. In this study, we investigate how scaling may occur, focusing on institutional logics, their changes and realignment over time. Particularly, we applied an abductive research strategy to collect empirical evidence from two in-depth, longitudinal case studies of innovation niches related to crop diversification. Doing so, we show for the first time that, despite their many differences, scaling processes of crop diversification in both niches converge, presenting similar progressions in terms of institutional dimensions, and facing similar obstacles when it comes to value chain formation. While initial experimentation could still be implemented using organizational forms familiar to the lead actors, we discover that a systemic lack of adequate value chain arrangements obstructed the scaling process of crop diversification in both cases. These findings have been used to reflect on the role of value chain relations in scaling processes in sustainability transitions in agriculture.
    Language: English
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: The Food and agriculture system plays a determining role in many countries ambitions to achieve net-zero by 2050. Sector pathways consistent with this objective most frequently describe sustainable intensification as the dominant response. This narrows the option space for the agricultural sector and restricts its ability to address multiple sustainability issues simultaneously. Here we present an interactive model ARISE (AgRIculture and food SystEm interactive model) which allows stakeholders to design complementary food and agriculture sector pathways and build consensus. As a first case study, we provided an environment-oriented NGO assessment of a UK agroecology pathway and evaluate the benefits in comparison with alternative pathways available in the literature and developed by the UK Government. This shows how the ARISE model can enable the exploration of critical trade-offs between the multiple sustainability objectives.
    Language: English
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Population growth and economic development in China has increased the demand for food and animal feed, raising questions regarding China’s future maize production self-sufficiency. Here, we address this challenge by combining data-driven projections with a machine learning method on data from 402 stations, with data from 87 field experiments across China. Current maize yield would be roughly doubled with the implementation of optimal planting density and management. In the 2030 s, we estimate a 52% yield improvement through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP585), compared with a historical climate trend. Based on our results, yield gains from soil improvement outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. This implies that China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas. Our results challenge the view of yield stagnation in most global areas and provide an example of how food security can be achieved with optimal crop-soil management under future climate change scenarios.
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Irrigation accounts for ~70% of global freshwater withdrawals and ~90% of consumptive water use, driving myriad Earth system impacts. In this Review, we summarize how irrigation currently impacts key components of the Earth system. Estimates suggest that more than 3.6 million km2 of currently irrigated land, with hot spots in the intensively cultivated US High Plains, California Central Valley, Indo-Gangetic Basin and northern China. Process-based models estimate that ~2,700 ± 540 km3 irrigation water is withdrawn globally each year, broadly consistent with country-reported values despite these estimates embedding substantial uncertainties. Expansive irrigation has modified surface energy balance and biogeochemical cycling. A shift from sensible to latent heat fluxes, and resulting land–atmosphere feedbacks, generally reduce regional growing season surface temperatures by ~1–3 °C. Irrigation can ameliorate temperature extremes in some regions, but conversely exacerbates moist heat stress. Modelled precipitation responses are more varied, with some intensive cropping regions exhibiting suppressed local precipitation but enhanced precipitation downstream owing to atmospheric circulation interactions. Additionally, irrigation could enhance cropland carbon uptake; however, it can also contribute to elevated methane fluxes in rice systems and mobilize nitrogen loading to groundwater. Cross-disciplinary, integrative research efforts can help advance understanding of these irrigation–Earth system interactions, and identify and reduce uncertainties, biases and limitations.
    Language: English
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