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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-04-29
    Description: We provide a quantitative assessment of policy options to inform the 2021 review of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and raise climate ambition. We use a permit trading model in which firms utilize rolling finite planning horizons, which replicates historical price and banking developments well compared to an infinite horizon. When firms have bounded foresight, indirectly raising ambition through the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) is not equivalent to directly raising ambition through the emissions cap trajectory. Leveraging the MSR turns out to be efficiency improving as it compensates for firms’ bounded foresight by frontloading abatement efforts. We analyze the MSR interaction with the cap trajectory to exploit synergies and minimize the cost of raising ambition. We also provide a comparative assessment of a complete suite of changes in the MSR parameters. Whatever its parameters, MSR-induced resilience to demand shocks remains limited by design: the MSR acts more as an unconditional price support provider than as a responsive price stabilizer.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    In:  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
    Publication Date: 2022-05-02
    Description: We develop an equilibrium model of emissions permit trading in the presence of fixed and proportional trading costs in which the permit price and firms' participation in and extent of trading are endogenously determined. We analyze the sensitivity of the equilibrium to changes in the trading costs and firms' allocations, and characterize situations where the trading costs depress or raise permit prices relative to frictionless market conditions. We calibrate our model to annual transaction data in Phase II of the EU ETS (2008–2012) and find that trading costs in the order of 10 k€ per annum plus 1 € per permit traded substantially reduce discrepancies between observations and theoretical predictions for firms’ behavior (e.g. autarkic compliance for small and/or long firms). Our simulations suggest that ignoring trading costs leads to an underestimation of the price impacts of supply-curbing policies, this difference varying with the incidence on firms.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-08-26
    Description: The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) was introduced into the European Union Emissions Trading System to address a historical surplus of emission allowances and to improve the system’s resilience to major shocks through automatic adjustments to the supply of allowances. We summarize the main strengths and weaknesses of the MSR and identify when it stabilizes the market as intended, as well as when it is destabilizing. We argue that recently proposed design changes strengthen both its stabilizing and destabilizing effects. We conclude that a price-based supply adjustment mechanism would help to address the main shortcomings rooted in the banking-based approach of the current MSR design.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
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    In:  Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
    Publication Date: 2022-08-31
    Description: We develop an emission permits trading model where covered firms can (1) utilize rolling planning horizons to deal with uncertainty and (2) exhibit bounded responsiveness to supply-side control policies. We calibrate the model to reproduce annual market outcomes in the EU ETS over 2008–2018 and show that a rolling finite horizon reconciles the banking dynamics with discount rates implied by futures contracts’ yield curves. It also replicates the price dynamics well compared to a standard infinite horizon, including the new price regime induced by the 2018 market reform. We then use our calibrated model to decompose the impacts of the 2018 reform’s design elements, quantify how they hinge on the firms’ horizon and responsiveness, and highlight important implications for policy design. For instance, when firms utilize rolling horizons, the Market Stability Reserve can improve effectiveness by frontloading abatement efforts and induce lower cumulative emissions compared to an infinite horizon.
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-01-10
    Description: Deep decarbonization of energy systems poses considerable challenges to electricity markets and there is a growing consensus that an energy-only design based on short-term marginal cost pricing cannot deliver adequate levels of investment and long-term coordination across actors and sectors. Based on the instructive example of the evolution of European electricity market designs, we discuss several shortcomings of energy-only markets and illustrate how ad-hoc policies that intend to address them have limitations of their own, notably a lack of systemwide coordination. Second, we describe how the sheer scale and nature of deep decarbonization targets requiring massive investment in capital-intensive low-carbon technologies exacerbate these issues. Ambitious emission reduction targets thus require an evolution of market design towards hybrid regimes. Hybrid markets separate long-term investment decisions from short-term operations through a balanced and differentiated use of competitive and regulatory design elements to coordinate and de-risk investment. Finally, a historical analysis of the evolution of different electricity market designs shows how hybrid markets constitute contemporary forms of long-run marginal cost pricing that are appropriate for meeting deep decarbonization targets with reduced uncertainty and hence lower private and social costs.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 6
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    In:  Nature Climate Change
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: The participation of financial actors is a key design issue in all emissions allowance markets. Although financials perform several necessary market functions, excessive speculation may undermine market functioning. The potential for harm is gaining prominence as tighter emission limits increasingly attract speculators and investors into allowance markets worldwide. However, adequate warning systems and tools to appraise the beneficial and detrimental facets of financial trading are wanting. We develop preliminary elements of a diagnostic toolbox to assess the scale and impacts of speculation and apply it to the EU emissions trading system. This Perspective seeks to inform current policy debates and invites further research to establish speculation-monitoring systems for allowance markets.
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2024-01-16
    Description: The EU Transaction Log (EUTL) is the essential part of the Registry: its keeps track of trades and ownership of allowances and thus plays a key role for market monitoring, integrity and trust. In particular, it is an important data source for researchers whose works contributes to the understanding of market functioning and the reduction of informational frictions. In the past researchers used EUTL data to analyse transaction costs, offsets, the role of banks, additional profits, market participation and related factors, auctions, stock markets, and the effects of allocation. However, the quality of the data as currently provided has confronted researchers with considerable challenges that call for regulatory changes. Prevailing data challenges have made analyses relatively time consuming, imposed limitations on accuracy and scope, and, simply, reduced researchers interest to study the ETS. Similar challenges have also been reported by the European Securities and Markets Authorities (ESMA) in its 2022 report on emission allowances and associated derivatives. In our feedback, we - members of the scientific research community - echo ESMAs recommendations and highlight other ways to improve the EUTL based on our experience with the use and analysis of EUTL data. Detailed feedback and recommendations are provided in the attached document. We appreciate that the scope and timing of this specific phase of the regulatory process may not allow full consideration of all the elements provided below, but we hope that they will be taken up in future revisions and reforms of the EUTL and of the EU ETS more generally.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/other
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: Having experienced low prices for about a decade, the European Union Emissions Trading System has been supplemented with the market stability reserve (MSR) that adjusts the supply of allowances to market outcomes. We critically review the literature assessing the performance of the MSR against several policy objectives. In doing so, we cover both conceptual aspects and quantitative assessments. We conclude by pointing out important policy implications and open issues for further research.
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2024-03-26
    Description: There has been fierce controversy in the literature over the long-run efficiency of the energy-only market (EOM) design ever since its inception. In this paper, we provide novel insights to illuminate this historical controversy, and we revisit it with a focus on contemporary issues and the profound changes brought about by the energy transition. Specifically, we develop an analytical and modeling framework to quantitatively investigate how EOM outcomes hinge on the underlying behavioral, informational and structural assumptions. We apply our framework to a case study calibrated on Californian fundamentals that captures the key features of energy systems under deep decarbonization. We characterize how EOM outcomes can substantially deviate from the long-run optimum as soon as one assumption is relaxed compared to theoretical requirements. This leads to pathways with higher electricity prices, lower security of supply and delayed decarbonization. In particular, we highlight how market price signals alone are prone to a dynamic entry-exit coordination problem between investment in low-carbon assets and the phaseout of fossil-fired assets. This calls for a market design reform to complement price signals that accounts for realistic assumptions.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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