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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 1-14 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Exceedance probability ; trend ; stochastic variables ; non-stationarity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Studying the hypothetical case of a trend superimposed on a random stationary variable, we highlight the strong influence of possible non-stationarities on exceedance probability. After a general outline, the subject is analytically developed using the Gumbel distribution, emphasizing the quick increase of the exceedance probability over time in the presence of weak rising trends, and its sensitive underestimation where the non-stationarity goes unnoticed or is considered negligible. Finally the work is applied to hydrological series of rainfall and river flow.
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  • 2
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 53-64 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Risk ; clustering ; point process ; Poisson ; flood.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: Since the introduction into flood risk analysis, the partial duration series method has gained increasing acceptance as an appealing alternative to the annual maximum series method. However, when the base flow is low, there is clustering in the flood peak or flow volume point process. In this case, the general stochastic point process model is not suitable to risk analysis. Therefore, two types of models for flood risk analysis are derived on the basis of clustering stochastic point process theory in this paper. The most remarkable characteristic of these models is that the flood risk is considered directly within the time domain. The acceptability of different models are also discussed with the combination of the flood peak counted process in twenty years at Yichang station on the Yangtze river. The result shows that the two kinds of models are suitable ones for flood risk analysis, which are more flexible compared with the traditional flood risk models derived on the basis of annual maximum series method or the general stochastic point process theory.
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  • 3
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 33-52 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Keywords: Streamflow ; simulation ; nonparametric
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A new approach for streamflow simulation using nonparametric methods was described in a recent publication (Sharma et al. 1997). Use of nonparametric methods has the advantage that they avoid the issue of selecting a probability distribution and can represent nonlinear features, such as asymmetry and bimodality that hitherto were difficult to represent, in the probability structure of hydrologic variables such as streamflow and precipitation. The nonparametric method used was kernel density estimation, which requires the selection of bandwidth (smoothing) parameters. This study documents some of the tests that were conduced to evaluate the performance of bandwidth estimation methods for kernel density estimation. Issues related to selection of optimal smoothing parameters for kernel density estimation with small samples (200 or fewer data points) are examined. Both reference to a Gaussian density and data based specifications are applied to estimate bandwidths for samples from bivariate normal mixture densities. The three data based methods studied are Maximum Likelihood Cross Validation (MLCV), Least Square Cross Validation (LSCV) and Biased Cross Validation (BCV2). Modifications for estimating optimal local bandwidths using MLCV and LSCV are also examined. We found that the use of local bandwidths does not necessarily improve the density estimate with small samples. Of the global bandwidth estimators compared, we found that MLCV and LSCV are better because they show lower variability and higher accuracy while Biased Cross Validation suffers from multiple optimal bandwidths for samples from strongly bimodal densities. These results, of particular interest in stochastic hydrology where small samples are common, may have importance in other applications of nonparametric density estimation methods with similar sample sizes and distribution shapes.
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  • 4
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 15-32 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Kalman filtering ; groundwater modelling ; inverse methods ; uncertainty analysis ; state prediction ; parameter estimation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The popularity of applying filtering theory in the environmental and hydrological sciences passed its first climax in the 1970s. Like so many other new mathematical methods it was simply the fashion at the time. The study of groundwater systems was not immune to this fashion, but neither was it by any means a prominent area of application. The spatial-temporal characteristics of groundwater flow are customarily described by analytical or, more frequently, numerical, physics-based models. Consequently, the state-space representations associated with filtering must be of a high order, with an immediately apparent computational over-burden. And therein lies part of the reason for the but modest interest there has been in applying Kalman filtering to groundwater systems, as reviewed critically in this paper. Filtering theory may be used to address a variety of problems, such as: state estimation and reconstruction, parameter estimation (including the study of uncertainty and its propagation), combined state-parameter estimation, input estimation, estimation of the variance-covariance properties of stochastic disturbances, the design of observation networks, and the analysis of parameter identifiability. A large proportion of previous studies has dealt with the problem of parameter estimation in one form or another. This may well not remain the focus of attention in the future. Instead, filtering theory may find wider application in the context of data assimilation, that is, in reconstructing fields of flow and the migration of sub-surface contaminant plumes from relatively sparse observations.
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  • 5
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 65-82 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Flood flow ; threshold ; generalized Pareto ; Poisson
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This study uses the method of peaks over threshold (P.O.T.) to estimate the flood flow quantiles for a number of hydrometric stations in the province of New Brunswick, Canada. The peak values exceeding the base level (threshold), or `exceedances', are fitted by a generalized Pareto distribution. It is known that under the assumption of Poisson process arrival for flood exceedances, the P.O.T. model leads to a generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) for yearly maximum discharge values. The P.O.T. model can then be applied to calculate the quantiles X T corresponding to different return periods T, in years. A regionalization of floods in New Brunswick, which consists of dividing the province into `homogeneous regions', is performed using the method of the `region of influence'. The 100-year flood is subsequently estimated using a regionally estimated value of the shape parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution and a regression of the 100-year flood on the drainage area. The jackknife sampling method is then used to contrast the regional results with the values estimated at site. The variability of these results is presented in box-plot form.
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  • 6
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 97-116 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract : The knowledge of the volume and duration of low-flow events in river channels is essential for water management and the design of hydraulics structures. In this study, both preceding characteristics, X 1 and X 2, are considered simultaneously via two types of bivariate distributions whose marginals are exponential. One of these bivariate distributions has been presented by Nagao and Kadoya (1971) and the other has been used by Singh and Singh (1991) to the study of rainfall intensity and rainfall depth. The results are applied to the low-flow series (“peaks-below-threshold”) of Lepreau River (station 01AQ001) in New Brunswick, Canada. These results show that the model that was successfully employed by Singh and Singh (1991) to study rainfall, presents certain difficulties when a very strong correlation, ρ, between the two random variables X 1 and X 2, exists. The model by Nagao and Kadoya (1971) seems to be more satisfactory for such situations, although this model seems also to be quite sensitive to variations in ρ.
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  • 7
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 83-96 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many natural porous geological rock formations, as well as engineered porous structures, have fractal properties, i.e., they are self-similar over several length scales. While there have been many experimental and theoretical studies on how to quantify a fractal porous medium and on how to determine its fractal dimension, the numerical generation of a fractal pore structure with predefined statistical and scaling properties is somewhat scarcer. In the present paper a new numerical method for generating a three-dimensional porous medium with any desired probability density function (PDF) and autocorrelation function (ACF) is presented. The well-known Turning Bands Method (TBM) is modified to generate three-dimensional synthetic isotropic and anisotropic porous media with a Gaussian PDF and exponential-decay ACF. Porous media with other PDF's and ACF's are constructed with a nonlinear, iterative PDF and ACF transformation, whereby the arbitrary PDF is converted to an equivalent Gaussian PDF which is then simulated with the classical TBM. Employing a new method for the estimation of the surface area for a given porosity, the fractal dimensions of the surface area of the synthetic porous media generated in this way are then measured by classical fractal perimeter/area relationships. Different 3D porous media are simulated by varying the porosity and the correlation structure of the random field. The performance of the simulations is evaluated by checking the ensemble statistics, the mean, variance and ACF of the simulated random field. For a porous medium with Gaussian PDF, an average fractal dimension of approximately 2.76 is obtained which is in the range of values of actually measured fractal dimensions of molecular surfaces. For a porous medium with a non-Gaussian quadratic PDF the calculated fractal dimension appears to be consistently higher and averages 2.82. The results also show that the fractal dimension is neither strongly dependent of the porosity nor of the degree of anisotropy assumed.
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  • 8
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 117-140 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Transport of non-ergodic solute plumes by steady-state groundwater flow with a uniform mean velocity, μ, were simulated with Monte Carlo approach in a two-dimensional heterogeneous and statistically isotropic aquifer whose transmissivity, T, is log-normally distributed with an exponential covariance. The ensemble averages of the second spatial moments of the plume about its center of mass, 〈S i i (t)〉, and the plume centroid covariance, R i i (t) (i=1,2), were simulated for the variance of Y=log T, σ Y 2=0.1, 0.5 and 1.0 and line sources normal or parallel to μ of three dimensionless lengths, 1, 5, and 10. For σ Y 2=0.1, all simulated 〈S i i (t)〉−S i i (0) and R i i (t) agree well with the first-order theoretical values, where S i i (0) are the initial values of S i i (t). For σ Y 2=0.5 and 1.0 and the line sources normal to μ, the simulated longitudinal moments, 〈S 11(t)〉−S 11(0) and R 11(t), agree well with the first-order theoretical results but the simulated transverse moments 〈S 22(t)〉−S 22(0) and R 22(t) are significantly larger than the first-order values. For the same two larger values of σ Y 2 but the line sources parallel to μ, the simulated 〈S 11(t)〉−S 11(0) are larger than but the simulated R 11 are smaller than the first-order values, and both simulated 〈S 22(t)〉−S 22(0) and R 22(t) stay larger than the first-order values. For a fixed value of σ Y 2, the summations of 〈S i i (t)〉−S i i (0) and R i i , i.e., X i i (i=1,2), remain almost the same no matter what kind of source simulated. The simulated X 11 are in good agreement with the first-order theory but the simulated X 22 are significantly larger than the first-order values. The simulated X 22, however, are in excellent agreement with a previous modeling result and both of them are very close to the values derived using Corrsin's conjecture. It is found that the transverse moments may be significantly underestimated if less accurate hydraulic head solutions are used and that the decreasing of 〈S 22(t)〉−S 22(0) with time or a negative effective dispersivity, defined as , may happen in the case of a line source parallel to μ where σ Y 2 is small.
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  • 9
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 141-154 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Ground truth ; geostatistical techniques ; areal reduction factor ; Rainfall process ; linear relationship.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Geostatistical techniques are used to quantify the reference mean areal rainfall (ground truth) from sparse raingaugenetworks. Based on the EPSAT-Niger event cumulative rainfall, a linear relationship between the ground truth considered as the mean area rainfall estimated from the densely available raingauge network and the area rainfall estimated from sparse network are derived. Also, a linear relationship between the ground truth and point rainfall is established. As it was reported experimentally by some authors, the slope of these relationships is less than one. Based on the geostatistical framework, the slope and the ordinate at the origin can be estimated as a function of the spatial structure of the rainfall process. It is shown that the slope is smaller than one. For the special case of one gauge inside a fixed area or a Field Of View (FOV), an areal reduction factor is derived. It has a limit value which depends only on the size of the area and the spatial structure of the rainfall process. The relative variance error of estimating the FOV cumulative rainfall from point rainfall is also given.
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  • 10
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 223-245 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Stochastic differential equation ; spatial data ; irregularly sampled data ; parameter estimation.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: A second order stochastic differential equation is used for modeling of water-table elevation. The data were sampled at the Borden Aquifer as a part of a tracer experiment. The purpose of the water-table data collection was to determine presence of a water flow. We argue that the water-table surface is a simple plane oscillating up and down in time according to an equation for a stochastic oscillator. We derive the model, estimate its parameters and provide arguments for goodness-of-fit of the model.
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  • 11
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 267-283 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Flood frequency analysis ; TCEV ; non-systematic information ; regional ; statistical gain.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: Due to the social and economic implications, flood frequency analysis must be done with the highest precision. For this reason, the most suitable statistical model must be selected, and the maximum amount of information must be used. Floods in Mediterranean rivers can be produced by two different mechanisms, which forces the use of a non-traditional distribution like the TCEV. The information can be increased by using additional non-systematic data, or with a regional analysis, or both. Through the statistical gain concept, it has been shown that in most cases the use of additional non-systematic information can decrease the quantile estimation error in about 50%. In a regional analysis, the␣benefit of additional information in one station, is propagated to the rest of␣the␣stations with only a small decrease with respect to the at-site equivalent analysis.
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  • 12
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 285-298 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract We present a geostatistically based inverse model for characterizing heterogeneity in parameters of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity for three-dimensional flow. Pressure and moisture content are related to perturbations in hydraulic parameters through cross-covariances, which are calculated to first-order. Sensitivities needed for covariance calculations are derived using the adjoint state sensitivity method. Approximations of the conditional mean parameter fields are then obtained from the cokriging estimator. Correlation between parameters and pressure – moisture content perturbations is seen to be strongly dependent on mean pressure or moisture content. High correlation between parameters and pressure data was obtained under saturated or near saturated flow conditions, providing accurate estimation of saturated hydraulic conductivity, while moisture content measurements provided accurate estimation of the pore size distribution parameter under unsaturated flow conditions.
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  • 13
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 247-266 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Stochastic control ; dynamic programming ; reservoir systems ; hydrologic forecasting ; hydropower ; feedback control ; autoregressive models.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract : As with all dynamic programming formulations, differential dynamic programming (DDP) successfully exploits the sequential decision structure of multi-reservoir optimization problems, overcomes difficulties with the nonconvexity of energy production functions for hydropower systems, and provides optimal feedback release policies. DDP is particularly well suited to optimizing large-scale multi-reservoir systems due to its relative insensitivity to state-space dimensionality. This advantage of DDP encourages expansion of the state vector to include additional multi-lag hydrologic information and/or future inflow forecasts in developing optimal reservoir release policies. Unfortunately, attempts at extending DDP to the stochastic case have not been entirely successful. A modified stochastic DDP algorithm is presented which overcomes difficulties in previous formulations. Application of the algorithm to a four-reservoir hydropower system demonstrates its capabilities as an efficient approach to solving stochastic multi-reservoir optimization problems. The algorithm is also applied to a single reservoir problem with inclusion of multi-lag hydrologic information in the state vector. Results provide evidence of significant benefits in direct inclusion of expanded hydrologic state information in optimal feedback release policies.
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  • 14
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 299-316 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a geostatistical approach to multi-directional aquifer stimulation in order to better identify the transmissivity field. Hydraulic head measurements, taken at a few locations but under a number of different steady-state flow conditions, are used to estimate the transmissivity. Well installation is generally the most costly aspect of obtaining hydraulic head measurements. Therefore, it is advantageous to obtain as many informative measurements from each sampling location as possible. This can be achieved by hydraulically stimulating the aquifer through pumping, in order to set-up a variety of flow conditions. We illustrate the method by applying it to a synthetic aquifer. The simulations provide evidence that a few sampling locations may provide enough information to estimate the transmissivity field. Furthermore, the innovation of, or new information provided by, each measurement can be examined by looking at the corresponding spline and sensitivity matrix. Estimates from multi-directional stimulation are found to be clearly superior to estimates using data taken under one flow condition. We describe the geostatistical methodology for using data from multi-directional simulations and address computational issues.
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  • 15
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 155-170 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Keywords: Stochastic inverse model ; conditioning ; transient groundwater flow.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract We investigated the effect of conditioning transient, two-dimensional groundwater flow simulations, where the transmissivity was a spatial random field, on time dependent head data. The random fields, representing perturbations in log transmissivity, were generated using a known covariance function and then conditioned to match head data by iteratively cokriging and solving the flow model numerically. A new approximation to the cross-covariance of log transmissivity perturbations with time dependent head data and head data at different times, that greatly increased the computational efficiency, was introduced. The most noticeable effect of head data on the estimation of head and log transmissivity perturbations occurred from conditioning only on spatially distributed head measurements during steady flow. The additional improvement in the estimation of the log transmissivity and head perturbations obtained by conditioning on time dependent head data was fairly small. On the other hand, conditioning on temporal head data had a significant effect on particle tracks and reduced the lateral spreading around the center of the paths.
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  • 16
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 191-204 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Keywords: groundwater flow ; inverse problems ; stability ; geostatistical interpolation ; kriging.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The Differential System Method (DSM) permits identification of the physical parameters of finite-difference groundwater flow models in a confined aquifer when piezometric head and source terms are known at each point of the finite-difference lattice for at least two independent flow situations for which the hydraulic gradients are not parallel. Since piezometric head data are usually few and sparse, interpolation of the measured data onto a regular grid can be performed with geostatistical techniques. We apply kriging to the sparse data of a synthetic aquifer to evaluate the stability of the DSM with respect to uncorrelated measurement errors and interpolation errors. The numerical results show that the DSM is stable.
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  • 17
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 171-190 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Keywords: Self-Calibrated method ; Stochastic hydrology ; Conditional simulation ; Stochastic inversion.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: A common approach for the performance assessment of radionuclide migration from a nuclear waste repository is by means of Monte-Carlo techniques. Multiple realizations of the parameters controlling radionuclide transport are generated and each one of these realizations is used in a numerical model to provide a transport prediction. The statistical analysis of all transport predictions is then used in performance assessment. In order to reduce the uncertainty on the predictions is necessary to incorporate as much information as possible in the generation of the parameter fields. In this regard, this paper focuses in the impact that conditioning the transmissivity fields to geophysical data and/or piezometric head data has on convective transport predictions in a two-dimensional heterogeneous formation. The Walker Lake data based is used to produce a heterogeneous log-transmissivity field with distinct non-Gaussian characteristics and a secondary variable that represents some geophysical attribute. In addition, the piezometric head field resulting from the steady-state solution of the groundwater flow equation is computed. These three reference fields are sampled to mimic a sampling campaign. Then, a series of Monte-Carlo exercises using different combinations of sampled data shows the relative worth of secondary data with respect to piezometric head data for transport predictions. The analysis shows that secondary data allows to reproduce the main spatial patterns of the reference transmissivity field and improves the mass transport predictions with respect to the case in which only transmissivity data is used. However, a few piezometric head measurements could be equally effective for the characterization of transport predictions.
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  • 18
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 205-222 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Hale cycle ; luni-solar tidal constituent ; maximum entropy spectrum ; multi-taper method ; harmonic analysis.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: Cohen and Sweeter (1975) found the 20 to 22-year Hale (double sunspot) cycle signal in the maximum entropy spectra of sunspot and Atlantic tropical cyclone data. Currie (1996) corroborated and extended their analysis, but he argued that this signal is the 18.6-year luni-solar tidal constituent. Currie maintains that Cohen and Sweeter mistakenly conjectured that this long term periodicity was induced by the 20 to 22-year Hale cycle signal. However, no further investigation of periodicity in the extracted wave forms corresponding to the 18.6-year luni-solar signal was conducted. In this study, we follow Currie's signal processing procedures to extract the wave forms corresponding to the 18.6-year luni-solar signal. In order to investigate the periodicity in the extracted wave forms, multi-taper method (MTM) is used for harmonic analysis. Band pass filters are then designed to extract the wave forms corresponding to the individual components identified in the MTM harmonic analysis. The investigation results of the monthly precipitation and Palmer's drought severity index (PDSI) data in three of the midwestern states – Illinois, Indiana and Ohio – show that two periodic components, the 20 to 22-year Hale cycle signal and the other component with periods between 16.9 and 13.5 years, are identified. The bistability phenomenon, which Currie found in these wave forms, is more likely to result from the superposition of these two periodic components, rather than from a nonlinear mechanism. Besides, a periodic component with an approximate period of 33 years is detected.
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  • 19
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 397-412 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: dispersion ; particle tracking ; random walks ; overbank flow ; equifinality ; fuzzy calibration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: Part 1 of this study assessed the effectiveness of dispersion models based around random particle tracking (RPT) applied an overbank flow in the Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford. Several of the RPT models that were used predicted the mixing behaviour of the tracer in the complex channel flow to within an acceptable accuracy. If there is no uniqueness in the model structure which can be used to represent the true system to within the limitations of the available observations, then this implies an inherent degree of ambiguity in our knowledge of the physically based model structure. This suggests that we should be less forthright in the optimisation of each individual model structure, and perhaps investigate more of the parameter combinations for each model which yield feasible simulations of the system. An alternative fuzzy calibration technique is introduced which avoids the optimisation process and takes account of uncertainties in the model structure, parameter sets and observed data in prediction.
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  • 20
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 377-396 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: dispersion ; particle tracking ; random walks ; overbank flow ; equifinality.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: In a special opportunity, detailed measurements of the flow in an overbank flow in the Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford were used in conjunction with tracer test data to assess the effectiveness of dispersion models based around random particle tracking (RPT). Ten different RPT models based on different assumptions and levels of information about the nature of the Lagrangian velocity field were investigated. Multiple simulations were used to calibrate variable parameters controlling the average magnitude of the perturbations for each model by comparison with observed concentrations at one cross-section. The calibrated models were then used to predict concentration distributions further downstream. Several of the calibrated models showed close agreement between observed and predicted concentration distributions. The most complex models using the most information about the velocity distributions were no better (and in some cases worse) in prediction than the simplest models investigated. It would appear that our knowledge of the system, despite the quality of the experiments, is too uncertain to infer a precise model structure.
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  • 21
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 359-375 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Non-homogeneous Poisson model ; parameter estimation ; approximation technique ; Taylor series ; cumulative probability distribution function ; intensity function ; error analysis.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of the non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) model are presented. The NHP model is characterized by a two-parameter cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) of sediment displacement. Those two parameters are the temporal and spatial intensity functions, physically representing the inverse of the average rest period and step length of sediment particles, respectively. Difficulty of estimating the parameters has, however, restricted the applications of the NHP model. The approximation techniques are proposed to address such problem. The basic idea of the method is to approximate a model involving stochastic parameters by Taylor series expansion. The expansion preserves certain higher-order terms of interest. Using the experimental (laboratory or field) data, one can determine the model parameters through a system of equations that are simplified by the approximation technique. The parameters so determined are used to predict the cumulative distribution of sediment displacement. The second-order approximation leads to a significant reduction of the CDF error (of the order of 47%) compared to the first-order approximation. Error analysis is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the first- and second-order approximations with respect to the experimental data. The higher-order approximations provide better estimations of the sediment transport and deposition that are critical factors for such environment as spawning gravel-bed.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 317-358 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. The similarity between maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and minimum relative entropy (MRE) allows recent advances in probabilistic inversion to obviate some of the shortcomings in the former method. The purpose of this paper is to review and extend the theory and practice of minimum relative entropy. In this regard, we illustrate important philosophies on inversion and the similarly and differences between maximum entropy, minimum relative entropy, classical smallest model (SVD) and Bayesian solutions for inverse problems. MaxEnt is applicable when we are determining a function that can be regarded as a probability distribution. The approach can be extended to the case of the general linear problem and is interpreted as the model which fits all the constraints and is the one model which has the greatest multiplicity or “spreadout” that can be realized in the greatest number of ways. The MRE solution to the inverse problem differs from the maximum entropy viewpoint as noted above. The relative entropy formulation provides the advantage of allowing for non-positive models, a prior bias in the estimated pdf and `hard' bounds if desired. We outline how MRE can be used as a measure of resolution in linear inversion and show that MRE provides us with a method to explore the limits of model space. The Bayesian methodology readily lends itself to the problem of updating prior probabilities based on uncertain field measurements, and whose truth follows from the theorems of total and compound probabilities. In the Bayesian approach information is complete and Bayes' theorem gives a unique posterior pdf. In comparing the results of the classical, MaxEnt, MRE and Bayesian approaches we notice that the approaches produce different results. In␣comparing MaxEnt with MRE for Jayne's die problem we see excellent comparisons between the results. We compare MaxEnt, smallest model and MRE approaches for the density distribution of an equivalent spherically-symmetric earth and for the contaminant plume-source problem. Theoretical comparisons between MRE and Bayesian solutions for the case of the linear model and Gaussian priors may show different results. The Bayesian expected-value solution approaches that of MRE and that of the smallest model as the prior distribution becomes uniform, but the Bayesian maximum aposteriori (MAP) solution may not exist for an underdetermined case with a uniform prior.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 413-430 
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: Three analyitcal solutions of saltwater intrusion under uncertain hydrologic, hydrogeologic, and pumping conditions are presented. These solutions extends the existing deterministic, sharp interface solutions to stochastic ones. The randomness is represented in terms of statistical measures of mean, standard deviation and covariance. The analysis is based on perturbation using Taylor series expansion. Simulations based on probability distribution are conducted for verification.
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    The annals of regional science 32 (1998), S. 63-89 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. In this paper, we investigate the impact on aggregate regional utility as a result of both exogenous growth and endogenous growth in a spatial system. We will first analyze the case of two closed regions, followed by the case of two open regions. The main instrument used in our approach to study the changes in collective regional welfare is Dynamic Programming. The traditional exogenous Solow growth model forms the basis of our paper. The analysis of this model will be extended to a comparison of two closed regions with exogenous growth. By introducing a case of a common labour market, we are able to investigate exogenous growth between two open regions. For the analysis of endogenous growth, we adopt the same structure as the one used for the investigation of exogenous growth models. In this framework, an investment in knowledge is considered as the endogenous driving force. Finally, we take a closer look at the timing of cost-reducing investments. In total, seven related but distinct cases are identified and studied in more detail.
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    The annals of regional science 32 (1998), S. 145-162 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. There has been a recent resurgence of interest in regional growth theory. One strand of this has been the work on endogenous growth processes and the natural potential for regional economic convergence. On the other hand, the appearance of a seminal paper by Aschauer in the late 1980s linking productivity growth to infrastructure provision provided arguments for a rethinking of the role of public policy in stimulating regional development. In particular this latter work offered a case for enhanced public sector activity at a time when mainstream economists favored a greater role for the private sector, a lowering of the tax burden and a liberal stance on regulation. The empirical findings have subsequently been the subject of further analysis and the theories which could potentially underpin them have been reviewed. This paper examines the links between this work on the importance of public capital and that on the role of endogenous growth processes.
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    The annals of regional science 32 (1998), S. 237-251 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract.  In this paper we study some of the consequences of national environmental policy in a strategic international setting. Two broad questions are analyzed. First, we examine the circumstances under which the pursuit of environmental policy by a country in a Cournot game will make that country worse off when the incidence of pollution is domestic. Second, we study the effects of environmental regulation by means of alternate price control instruments in a Cournot game in which national governments care about international pollution, but polluting firms do not. It is shown that there are plausible theoretical circumstances in which the pursuit of environmental policy in a strategic setting is not necessarily a desirable objective. Further, it is shown that in choosing between alternate pollution control instruments, national governments typically face a tradeoff between instruments which correct more distortions but are costly to implement and instruments which correct fewer distortions and are less costly to implement. In particular, a dominance result for a tariff policy is obtained; this result favors protection, i.e., the use of tariffs, from an informational standpoint alone.
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    The annals of regional science 32 (1998), S. 295-298 
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. A jubilee often triggers backward-oriented reflections, sometimes nostalgic. A jubilee can also be used as an excuse for looking forward. This special issue is composed in honour of Åke E. Andersson, delayed in the sense that the anniversary (60 years) dates back to 1996. The contributions to this volume have also gone through a maturing process in the form of reviews and revisions. The contributions are organised in three thematic groups. The themes appear in the sequence “Evolution”, “Welfare”, and “Interaction”.
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    The annals of regional science 32 (1998), S. 459-467 
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Regional Science is alive and well. If we wish to maintain our position we need to explore ways to expand our numbers and the constituencies that we serve. Expanding undergraduate and graduate teaching programs, fostering more discussion of client-driven work at our meetings and in our journals, and actively encouraging participation by non-university based researchers and even regional development practitioners are all ways to promote multiple-constituency regional science. If one of these options is to be emphasized in the short term, I would suggest encouraging participation by non-university based researchers and more discussion of client-driven research. These strategies are often at least partially in place now, they benefit from the rigorous scientific work that is our core business, and they will help assure the institutionalization of „full service” regional science.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 197-214 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary A set of mesoscale numerical simulations using the Emanuel and Kain-Fritsch deep convection schemes has been performed in order to determine the sensitivity of the forecast-especially, the rainfall-to the scheme used. The study is carried out for two cases of heavy precipitation in the coastal zone of the Western Mediterranean, where the topographic forcing is of primary influence. The first one, characterized by an almost stationary synoptic situation, is dominated by warm, moist advection at low levels; the second one, of frontal type, presents a much stronger dynamic forcing at upper levels. Although the comparison attempt is conditioned by the limited number of considered cases, the numerical results provide at least some preliminary conclusions. The inclusion of a convective scheme improves the forecast precipitation, through two actions: directly, producing more realistic rainfall patterns in areas of convection; indirectly, avoiding excessive precipitation in areas with orographic or dynamical upward forcing by drying and stabilizing the atmosphere upstream. In particular, the Kain-Fritsch scheme seems to be more sensitive to the orographic forcing, in agreement with observations.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 215-227 
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    Notes: Summary Flash floods have been recognized as one of the most significant natural disaster problems in the world. Within the United States, the annual average flood death toll exceeds one hundred and property damage is on the order of a billion dollars. There has been an increased effort of the meteorological community to improve short term quantitative precipitation forecasting, principally by improving mesoscale numerical weather prediction for heavy rain events. Nevertheless, to date, numerical weather prediction has had rather limited impact on the prediction of the most damaging convective rainstorms. This study examines numerical experiments, including both coarse-mesh and fine-mesh model simulations, of the Enid, Oklahoma flood of 10–11 October 1973. Besides the great concentration of rainfall, the Enid flood was rather unique in comparison with other flash flood cases in that it was part of a much larger area of heavy rainfall which soaked the central Plains over the 24h period ending at 1200 UTC 11 October. The objective is to assess the overall usefulness and limitation of numerical weather prediction models in quantitative precipitation forecasting for this flash flood event. The model experiments reveal that the broad-scale precipitation patterns associated with the front and cyclone are well predicted, but the maximum rainfall amounts around Enid are underpredicted. The fine-mesh model is superior to the coarse-mesh model because of the former's ability to generate many significant mesoscale features in the vicinity of the front. In the fine-mesh model, many convection-related parameters (e.g., moisture flux convergence) are correlated very well temporally and spatially with the observed heavy precipitation scenario.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 229-234 
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    Notes: Summary Using ECMWF analyses and daily rain amounts of 569 stations in Western Africa for summer 1989, the study documents the composite structure of the 6–9 day oscillation and its influence on rain. Rain is modulated by vorticity as displayed in the wave composite. There are rainfall maxima coincident with cyclonic vorticity and rainfall minima coincident with anticyclonic vorticity at the 700hPa level, at 17.5°N and 7.5°N.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 235-241 
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    Notes: Summary We have used a CGR3 lightning flash counter to gather lightning type and occurrence data over five complete years in Gaborone, Botswana. The results show that the mean ground flash density is 4.6 km−2 yr−1. Of these, 4.9% of ground flashes lower a net positive charge. The overall ratio of intracloud flashes to ground flashes is 1.9, the value being slightly higher during the nights than the daytime. A typical lightning season lasts from September to May, the activity reaching a peak between November and January. There is virtually no lightning at all during the dry winter months of June, July and August. The number of flashes per storm shows a marked decrease as the season progresses. In the diurnal cycle, the peak lightning activity occurs at around 19 h, which is somewhat late when compared with most other locations. However, together with observations in the Central United States, it seems to suggest that the peak activity occurs later in the day at mid-continental locations.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 1-1 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 3-4 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 169-180 
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    Notes: Summary The basic differential system of equations for mass specific thermodynamic potentials is extended to a system that describes the thermodynamics of finite differences. This system is characterized by mass specificexergies andanergies of the original thermodynamic potentials which are split up into exergies and anergies. Equations for the differentials of exergies and anergies replace the wellknown differential relationships of thermodynamics and are the basis of a more general energetics of the atmosphere, an energetics with an “entropy flavor” (Dutton, 1992). Here, a special state of reference is not prescribed. It turns out that mass specific exergy of internal energy combined with specific kinetic energy, and mass specific anergy of internal energy combined with potential energy leads to local balance equations for these energies. They represent the balance equation of total energy split up into two separate equations. The physical meaning of the two equations is clearly understood. In particular, irreversible processes and entropy production play a dominant role in all energy equations so derived. Finally, integration over the entire atmosphere leads to generalized global energy equations. The production (destruction) of kinetic energy depends on the rate of change with time of exergy of internal energy, and vice versa on the rate of change with time of anergy via a rate of change of potential energy. J. A. Dutton's (1973) relationship between global entropy difference and the sum of global kinetic energy and static entropic energy is recovered and static entropic energy is identified with global exergy of internal energy. In case of ideal gases, local exergy of enthalpy can be split up into a temperature potential and a pressure potential. For both potentials local balance equations are derived.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 199-212 
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    Notes: Summary Nelson et al. (1994) report a non-uniform distribution of large (0.33 to 33 km2) blowdowns in the rainforests of Amazonia. Occurrence of such large disturbances in the wet, low wind speed regime of the Amazon Basin cannot be explained by conventional mechanisms such as fire or hurricanes. While downdrafts from deep convective clouds are likely candidates, this paper draws upon meteorological observations from the central Amazon Basin to show that the requisite magnitudes of wind speed can be reached but only under conditions which would explain the observed horizontal distributions of the large blowdowns. Outflow velocities due to density driven downdrafts in the convective clouds are shown from observations to reach 15 m/s and correspond to the propagation velocities of longlived Amazon squall lines. Maintenance over 48 h of these squall lines depends upon the correspondence between the outflow velocity and the propagation velocity. The storms propagate within a basic current moving at 5 m/s, increasing the outflow velocities to 21 m/s. The development of a storm-generated pressure field must be called upon to increase the magnitude of the density and basic currents to more than 30 m/s. Such conditions occur only when the convection is embedded in squall lines which reach their diurnal maximum at locations nearly coincident with the observed locations of the maxima in large blowdowns. The characteristics of the observed blowdowns in terms of orientation, size and shape are consistent with winds derived from the postulated downward moving density currents being deflected and accelerated orthogonally at canopy top and forest floor. The causes and distribution of large blowdowns in the wet, low wind regime of the Amazon rainforest are shown to be important in explaining the disturbance regime of that system. Such disturbances are necessary in maintaining diversity of the system by locally disrupting the canopy, altering levels of incident radiation received at the surface and changing patterns of nutrient cycling, carbon uptake and storage.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 249-252 
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    Notes: Summary Greenhouse warming, although predicted to become especially pronounced in the polar regions, will be obscured there by the short-lived anomalies that are characteristic of polar climates. To detect a warming it then becomes necessary to examine and compare statistical parameters of such quasi-steady interludes. A new “change index (CI)” is proposed and used to demonstrate that a warming at four Alaskan airfields, reported by Bowling (1991), represented a distinct change from the temperature mean and/or variance of the preceding few years, and was followed by a slightly cooler regime that has persisted through 1994.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 239-248 
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    Notes: Summary Unbeknownst to many fruit and vegetable producers a killer frost sneaked down the Florida peninsula during the night of January 18 to 19, 1997. According to news reports in left in its wake approximately $ 200 million in damage to crops and tress, much of which could have been avoided with available abatement technology. A lot of finger pointing followed between victims and agencies trying to fix the blame on an identifiable culprit. The recent privatization of some of the National Weather Service's former responsibilities added fuel to the fire. Without touching these politically “hot potatoes” the present paper gives a brief account of observational facts and then describes the results from an inexpensive, PC-based, operational forecasting system. That system has been described earlier (Reiter, 1991; Teixeira and Reiter, 1995; Reiter et al., 1998). The advantage of a “hybrid” system in which the user can interact with, and modify, the forecast “on the fly” is demonstrated.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 1-12 
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    Notes: Summary Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) data registers from June to December during 1990–94 were obtained from the Spanish National Meteorological Institute (INM). Fifteen Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) were identified through this database. Most of the MCCs developed during the last week of September. The dominant synoptic patterns related to the mesoscale systems were cold fronts at the surface with warm and moist low-level cores, and cut-off low or deep trough throughout the middle and upper levels. These synoptic patterns were found in all the fifteen cases studied. The hourly centroid location of each MCC was used to trace their tracks, which followed a general direction towards the E or NE in almost all cases. These trajectories are clearly related to the synoptic patterns found. Finally, two MCCs chosen as representative of their evolution are described and the related physical processes are discussed.
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    Notes: Summary The times taken by ships of the English East India Company (EEIC) to sail from the Cape of Good Hope to St. Helena Island during the 17th, 18th, and early 19th centuries represent proxy measures of the strength and steadiness of the Southeast Trades which are compared with present-day data from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). Both wind speed and steadiness appear to have reached maxima in the 1760s and increased again, from lower values in the following decade, to the 1820s. These changes need to be further substantiated with the available log entries concerning winds, weather, and rates of progress. A similar fleshing out of fragmentary preinstrumental pre-standardized records with current climatic characteristics is suggested for the routes fanning out east of the Cape towards Arabia, India, China, Indonesia, and Australia.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 13-21 
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    Notes: Summary Spectral filtering and visualization reveal a multitude of gravity waves in the fine mesh (29 km) Eta model output, extending into the “large scale”, masking the vertical motions associated with Rossby-modes. The 6 h forecast of the Eta model from 00 UTC 22 December 1994 initialization contains gravity waves recognizable over a broad spectrum of wavelengths as concentric circles radiating outward from centers of model convection. Contamination of the signal is therefore identifiable in any spectral range, as rings. Postprocessing techniques are presented to eliminate gravity wave contamination and to reveal the meteorologically significant signal. Low-pass filtering is found to be an effective means of extracting the Rossby signal, but with loss in Rossby signal that renders the results obtained with a high resolution model no better than what could have been obtained from a coarser resolution model. Time filtering, is suggested as a more effective method for eliminating the effects of fast modes while maintaining mesoscale details of the slow modes.
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    Notes: Summary A dispersion modeling system consisting of a three-dimensional PBL model NHECM (non-hydrostaticE-ε closure model) and SLPTDM (seven-level puff transport and diffusion model) is developed to simulate the transport and dispersion of pollutant over coastal complex terrain. As an application of the system, the transport and dispersion of SO2 released from an elevated point source are simulated during typical sea-land breeze circulation in the Hongkong-Shenzhen area of China. The NHECM provides time-varying, three-dimensional distributions of wind and turbulence fields to the SLPTDM. The NHECM predictions compare well with observational data. Reflection of both the ground and the mixing layer top and penetration of the mixing layer top are improved in the SLPTDM. Results obtained from the system indicate that temporal variation and nonuniformity of airflow and turbulence obviously affect the concentration distributions, especially during the sea-land breeze transition period. A diurnal cycle of the GLC (ground-level concentration) is discussed. The results are compared with those estimated using a Gaussian model. The study's results illustrate the complexity of the dispersion patterns due to diurnal effects and mesoscale circulations, and demonstrate the potential of the mesoscale atmospheric dispersion modeling system for studies of air quality in complex terrain.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 35-41 
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    Notes: Summary The full-physics adjoint of the FSU Global Spectral Model of version T42L12 is applied to carry out sensitivity analysis of the localized model forecast error to the initial conditions for a case test occurring on June 8, 1988 during the Indian summer monsoon. The results show that adjoint sensitivity based on ECMWF analysis can be used to identify regions with large analysis uncertainties. The conclusion is that more observations are required over the northern Bay of Bengal to improve the quality of analyses so as to ameliorate the model forecast skill.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 43-51 
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    Notes: Summary An empirical prediction algorithm is developed to assess the potential of useful multi-season forecasts of North Atlantic hurricane activity. The algorithm is based on combining separate univariate autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for each of three dominant components of hurricane activity. A Bayesian criterion is used to select the order of each model. In a single retroactive hindcast experiment, the algorithm is found to make better hindcasts than an ARMA model of the detrended series. A real-time forecast of hurricane activity for the 1997 North Atlantic hurricane season proves to be more accurate than two competitive single-season forecast models. It is expected that the routine use of the forecast algorithm in an operational setting will result in only marginal skill against climatology; it could however offer considerable forecast value as realized by benefits to decision makers in the reinsurance industry.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 53-56 
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    Notes: Summary Three homogeneous subregions of rainfall anomaly are identified in southern Brazil from the precipitation data for the months of June to September for the period 1960–1993. The area average monthly rainfall of these regions is correlated with the Indian monsoon rainfall index (MRI). The correlations are weak; however some significant negative correlation coefficients of the order of 0.3 or higher are found, indicating that more than normal monsoon activity in July has an effect of reducing the rainfall in southern Brazil in austral winter. The relevance of this result lies in the fact that any rainfall shortage in the midwinter and spring seasons can increase ambiental hazards such as forest fires.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 213-220 
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    Notes: Summary Atmospheric CCN-humidity spectra (describing the CCN-number concentration as function of supersaturation) are derived as the integral over given particle size distributions. In that concept the finite boundary, representing the limiting activated particle size, results from the critical values of the Köhler-curve. As utilization of this general outcome different representative aerosol size distributions of the power law type as well as the log-normal type are chosen for case studies which are compared to empirical results. The dependency on temperature of the limiting activated particle size is shown to provide a non-negligible influence on the number of activated particles.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 181-198 
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    Notes: Summary In this paper, the thermal features of the atmosphere over the Tibetan Plateau in summer and their effects on the general circulation are reviewed. Some recent research results are reported. It is shown that the Plateau acts as a heat source in summer. Particularly the strong surface heating makes the air stratification very unstable and produces strong near-surface convergence and positive vorticity and upper layer divergence and negative vorticity. Intense convective activity generated thereby not only maintains such particular large-scale circulation pattern over the Plateau, but also transports large amounts of sensible heat, moisture, chemical pollutants, as well as air with low ozone concentration from near-surface layers to upper layers. A minimum centre of total ozone concentiation and a huge upper layer anticyclone with a warm and moist core are thus observed over the Plateau in summer. The strong divergent flow and anticyclonic vorticity source in the upper atmosphere have a strong influence on the general circulation over the world via meridional as well as longitudinal circulations, and energy, dispersion on a spherical surface. It is shown that the surface sensiole heating of the Plateau is essential for the occurrence of the abrupt seasonal change of the general circulation there, and for the persisten maintenance of the Asian monsoon. It is also reported that the elevated heating of the Tibetan Plateau together with its mechanical forcing cause the early onset of the Asian monsson to happen over the eastern coast of the Bay of Bengal, which then generates a favorable circulation background for the monsoon onset over the South China Sea. The Indian monsoon onset flows aftervards.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 217-237 
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    Notes: Summary Rainfall regimes are primarily unimodal in central and eastern Venezuela but bimodal (peaks in May–June and September-October-November with a minimum in July–August) in the northwest. There is a sharp transition across the Andes suggesting a topographic-circulation connection. However, a mid-summer minimum also occurs at other locations in Venezuela and Central America during individual years. This paper addresses the nature and control of the regimes including the role of large-scale circulation features and convection as indicated by outgoing longwave radiation data. Altitudinal characteristics of precipitation in the Andes and their spatial variability are also investigated. The development of the minimum within the rainy season annual cycle is shown to be related to the combined effects of the evolution of sea surface temperatures in the east Pacific warm pool and reinforced in the area of the Andes by enhanced easterlies during July and August.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 57-77 
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    Notes: Summary The dynamical characteristics of Asian summer monsoon are examined with a global spectral model. In addition to the seasonal circulation features, the large scale budgets of kinetic energy, vorticity and angular momentum are examined making use of mean analysis and forecast fields (upto day 5) for summer season comprising June, July and August, (JJA) 1994. Apart from elucidating the systematic errors over the monsoon region, the study expounded the influence of these errors on associated dynamics. The significant errors in the low level flow (850 hPa) evince (i) weakening of south easterly trades and cross equatorial flow into the Northern Hemisphere and (ii) weakening of westerly flow over the North Indian Ocean. Similarly, in the upper level flow (200 hPa) they indicate (i) weakening of Tibetan anti-cyclone and (ii) reduction of return flow into the Southern Hemisphere. The balance requirements in the mean analysis as well as forecast fields are fairly in agreement with the observed over the summer monsoon. The monsoon domain is discerned as the source region of kinetic energy and vorticity. Both are produced in the monsoon region and transported horizontally across. The model forecasts fail to retain the analyzed atmospheric variability in terms of mean as well as transient circulations which is revealed by kinetic energy budget. This is further corroborated by vorticity and angular momentum budgets. It is noticed that the forecasts in all ranges produce feeble monsoon circulation which weakens considerably with increase in the forecast period.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 115-118 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 99-113 
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    Notes: Summary A general lack of information on atmospheric optical properties (e.g., the transmission coefficient) is a major obstacle to the use of the Lambert-Beer Laws in numerical modeling. This paper reports on an effort to extract those properties from solar irradiance records and capture their variations in relation to commonly available climatic information. The end product of the effort is a Lambert-Beer Laws-based model that is complete with functions projecting atmospheric coefficients and that differentiates direct, sky-diffuse and terrestrially-reflected solar irradiance. The model is driven by calendar day, four location factors (latitude, elevation, slope azimuth, slope inclination) and three climatic variables (bright-sunshine duration, precipitation, temperature). It effectively reproduces monthly solar irradiance data from around the world.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 79-98 
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    Notes: Summary Simulations replicating urbanization and/or different landscapes following the cessation of open-pit mining were performed with a non-hydrostatic meso-β-scale model. Except for cloud and precipitating particles the daily domain averages of the variables of state hardly differ under calm wind conditions. Nevertheless, the ‘single land-use changes’ which are associated with urbanization, open-pit mines or the flooding of open-pit mines may appreciably or even significantly affect the local processes of the atmospheric water-cycle over and downwind of the land-use changes. Of the three, urbanization affects the local weather the least significantly, and flooding the open-pit mines causes the most significant changes. Generally, the most significant differences (at 90% or better statistical-significance level) occur for the liquid- and solid-water substances, the soil-wetness-factors, and the vertical component of the wind-vectors. The last changes strongly influence the paths of cloud and precipitation formation by the interaction ofcloud-microphysics-dynamics. In contrast to all other quantities for which a land-use change causes significant differences, the differences between cloud and precipitating particles are often not reflected in the environs of the landuse change.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 119-125 
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    Notes: Summary A simple two-dimensional quasi-geostrophic linearized model of the atmosphere is used to investigate the behaviour of the quasi-geostrophic modes for five horizontal rectangular grids. Numerical expressions for frequencies of Rossby waves for all grids are evaluated. It was found that the B and C grids produce only negative frequencies as well as the continuous case. The D grid has negative and zero frequencies. Finally, it was found that the A and E grids produce positive frequencies and eastward moving Rossby waves.
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  • 54
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    Notes: Summary The regional atmospheric model REMO is used to study the energy and water exchange between surface and atmosphere over the Baltic Sea and its catchment area. As a prerequisite for such studies, the model has to be validated. A major part of such a validation is the comparison of simulation results with observational data. In this study the DX product of the International Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and precipitation measurements from 7775 rain gauge stations within the model domain are used for comparisons with the simulated cloud cover and precipitation fields, respectively. The observations are available in this high spatiotemporal resolution for June 1993. To quantify the comparisons of means, variability, and patterns of the data fields simple statistics are used and the significance of the results is determined with resampling methods (Pool Permutation Procedure and Bootstrap-t). The conclusion is that simulated and observed means of the fields are not different at the 5% significance level. The determined variability of the fields is also in good agreement except the space variability in cloud cover. Time mean and anomaly patterns are in good coincidence in case of the comparisons of cloud cover fields, but in reduced coincidence in case of precipitation.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 143-150 
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    Notes: Summary Seventeen years of sea level pressure (SLP), 200-hPa zonal wind and 500-hPa geopotential height data were used to investigate the boreal winter and summer interannual (IA) circulation patterns. The IA patterns for these variables and for their zonally asymmetric (ZA) part were determined by performing empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on the SLP and on ZA SLP. The corresponding patterns for the other variables were obtained by correlating their time series with the amplitude time series of these EOF analyses. For both seasons, the SLP and ZA SLP show a zonal wavenumber one pattern extending from the tropics into the winter hemisphere extratropics, which is consistent with the circulation anomalies related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles. The zonal wavenumber one pattern observed for the boreal winter describes the SLP and ZA SLP variations related to the mature state of the El Niño and La Niña episodes, and that for the summer, the SLP and ZA SLP variations associated with the initial or decay stages of these phenomena. The 200-hPa zonal wind and 500-hPa geopotential height patterns exhibit strong seasonal dependence, and the ZA parts of these two variables show even more pronounced seasonal differences. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric circulation, in particular at the upper tropospheric levels, might play an important role in extending the IA wavetrain-like structure into the subtropics as noted for the 200-hPa zonal wind and its ZA part in the Pacific/Americas sector. This wavetrain-like structure shows its Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH) branches for the boreal winter, and only its SH branch, for the boreal summer. Thus, the effects of the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric circulation on the IA patterns seem to be stronger for the NH.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 171-176 
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    Notes: Summary A simple theoretical algorithm has been employed to estimate the solar ultraviolet irradiance at Athens, Greece (38.7°N, 23.4°E) during, summertime 1993, a year of extreme total ozone minimum in the existing data record. This estimation has been performed by using total ozone measurements as derived by both ground-based and satellite instrumentation. The utilization of the present investigation will assist to the various assesments for the risk of human health from the biologically-effective doses of the solar ultraviolet radiation arrived at the earth's surface during that time period.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 177-186 
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    Notes: Summary A number of well known diagnostic equations for the determination of the height,h, of the nocturnal boundary layer. with minimum data requirements of at most surface wind speed, air temperature and total cloud cover, have been tested as to their effectiveness. The computed values have been compared with direct estimation ofh, from temperature or wind profiles of rawinsonde ascents available at 00Z (02h LST). The comparison between computed and observed values shows that best agreement is found when the nocturnal boundary layer height is determined through wind profiles. The ratio of the computed to the observed values reveals a strong dependence on stability, resulting in overestimation by the models for very low stability and underestimation for strong stability. The simple expressions involving the wind speed rather than other stability parameters resulted in a better overall fit to the observed values. A simple prognostic model is shown to provide the best estimates of the NBL height compared to both wind and temperature profile definition.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 187-195 
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    Notes: Summary The combination of several thermodynamic variables based upon the data provided by a radiosounding can be useful for the forecasting of thunderstorms. As a matter of fact, there are many indices that allow the establishment of a storm risk prediction once they have been gauged. The problem comes when not all indices lead to the same prediction. In these cases, it is necessary to establish one single function based on the information provided by all the variables employed, which should be able to determine a two-fold prediction: risk or no risk. This article presents a statistic model for the short tem prediction of thunderstorms in the region of León (Spain). To reach this aim 15 meteorological variables were selected. These variables were easy to handle by non-expert staff, and they allowed the characterisation of the preconvective environment early in the morning on thunderstorm days. The variables have been properly combined and gauged with the help of a dense network of meteorological observers. The result has led to the construction of a reliable model. The discriminant quadratic model has been easily applied to determine in an objective and binary way the risk/no risk for the occurrence of thunderstorms.
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  • 59
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    Notes: Summary This paper investigates tropical-extratropical interactions over the northwestern Pacific Ocean that involve tropical cyclones and subtropical jet streaks. Another aspect of this study is to examine the relation between 6–25 day convective variability and tropical cyclones. This investigation is conducted for the fall and early winter season, with a focus on the months, October through December (OND). In addition to outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, we use 10 years (1985–1994) of WCRP/TOGA archive II analyses produced by ECMWF to compute equivalent temperature,θ e , precipitable water, W, and kinematic and kinetic energy transfer variables. These variables are composited for two classes of tropical cyclones, recurving cyclones (RCs) and non-recurving cyclones (NCRs), in order to examine the influence of tropical cyclones and baroclinic processes on changes in the jet streak intensity. We found that RCs interacted with extratropical regions during all composite days. A strong baroclinic zone developed throughout the troposphere on the north side of the composite cyclone as it propagated poleward. Between the day of recurvature, DR, and the day after recurvature, DR+1, the main band of convection shifted from the RC to a frontal band within the baroclinic zone indicating a transformation of the tropical cyclone into an extratropical one. An eastward propagating jet streak at 200 hPa, located north of the RC and in the vicinity of the baroclinic zone, increased its speed from 57 ms−1 to 79 ms−1 on DR+1. Although we could not measure the role of baroclinic processes in this regard, we were able to infer that upper-level outflow from the RC did supply momentum and energy to the jet streak. Whereas we expected tropical-extratropical interactions for the RCs, we also found evidence that NRCs that stay south of 20° N throughout their lifetime and that dissipate over Indo-China have an influence on the subtropical jet by their upper-level outflow, especially in the late OND season. The tropical (i.e., momentum) forcing did appear to cause increases in the speed of the jet after the composited storm crossed the Phillippines on the fourth day of its life cycle, D4. Concurrently, a baroclinic zone developed along the coast of southern China by about D4, but it was confined to the lower troposphere. Finally, our spectral analysis investigations for the northwestern Pacific showed significant peaks at 6–10 days and 15–20 days from late September to early December. The first peak is well known and is associated with typhoon activity. In several of the investigated autumn seasons (1987, 1989, 1992, and 1993), the second peak was clearly related to the recurrence interval of northwestern Pacific tropical cyclones. This result is in accordance with the findings of Hartmann et al. (1992). For some years of the investigation period (1985, 1986, and 1988), however, our results showed that westward propagating convective disturbances that fail to reach tropical depression strength also contribute to the power in the 15–25 day band, whereas in a few years (1990 and 1991), no OLR peak between 15 and 20 days could be found at all. Therefore, it appears that further work needs to be done with regard to the relationship between convective systems and their accompanying relationships on time scales ranging between 10 and 25 days.
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    Notes: Summary TOVS temperature profile data (SATEM) at its full resolution (85 km) has now become available in India on experimental basis. An attempt is made in this study to examine the quality and impact of this on the medium range forecasts over India and neighbourhood. For this purpose, a seven day period starting from 15 March 1996 is chosen to study the impact of the data on the global analysis-forecasting system operational in India. Though one week data is utilized for the impact study, the complete data of march 1996 is used for examining quality, representativeness and consistency of the retrievals. In the operational system of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), all types of data, including coarse resolution (500 km) global TOVS retrievals-coarse grid SATEM (CGS) data, received on GTS at hourly intervals are used in the assimilation cycle. For the present study the assimilation cycle is repeated for the above period by including high resolution data over the geographical regions covered by the New Delhi's high resolution picture transmission (HRPT) station and simultaneously removing coarse resolution SATEM data. The analysis and forecast fields thus generated are compared with the corresponding operational archives. The impact of the data is examined in terms of various objective scores and through circulation characteristics. The study reveals that the quality of high resolution SATEM (HRS) data is satisfactory and is such that it can be utilized in the global data assimilation system on real-time basis. A general improvement in the RMSE and ACC scores of the medium range forecasts is found over the data void equatorial sectors of the Indian Ocean after the incorporation of the HRS data fields in the assimilation cycle. With regard to a typical easterly wave activity of moderate intensity during the period of experimentation a marginal modulation in low level vorticity and divergence forecasts is found to be improving the precipitation magnitudes over the south peninsular India as well.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1998), S. 23-38 
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    Notes: Summary A parameterization of shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes derived from detailed radiative transfer models is included in a global primitive equation statistical-dynamical model (SDM) with two bulk atmospheric layers. The model is validated comparing the model simulations with the observed mean annual and seasonal zonally averaged climate. The results show that the simulation of the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes matches well with the observations. The SDM variables such as surface and 500 hPa temperatures, zonal winds at 250 hPa and 750 hPa, vertical velocity at 500 hPa and precipitation are also in good agreement with the observations. A comparison between the results obtained with the present SDM and those with the previous version of the model indicates that the model results improved when the parameterization of the radiative fluxes based on detailed radiative transfer models are included into the SDM. The SDM is used to investigate its response to the greenhouse effect. Sensitivity experiments regarding the doubling of CO2 and the changing of the cloud amount and height are performed. In the case 2×CO2 the model results are consistent with those obtained from GCMs, showing a warming of the climate system. An enhancement of the greenhouse effect is also noted when the cloud layer is higher. However, an increase of the cloud amount in all the latitude belts provokes an increase of the surface temperature near poles and a decrease in all the other regions. This suggests that the greenhouse effect overcomes the albedo effect in the polar latitudes and the opposite occurs in other regions. In all the experiments the changes in the surface temperature are larger near poles, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1998), S. 67-80 
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    Notes: Summary The evolutions of two slow-moving convective mesosystems observed in Venezuela during VIMHEX-II were studied using time changes in radar echo characteristics. The duration of the echo, maximum echo area, maximum echo height and mean echo velocity were about 6 hours, 5000km2, 16km, and 95°/5.2m s−1 for mesosystem A and about 11 hours, 12000km2, 14km, and 90°/3.2m s−1, for mesosystem B, respectively. The rainfall distributions associated with the mesosystems are described and correlated with the radar echo characteristics. The synoptic conditions are discussed, as well as the modification of the environment produced by the mesosystems. The relative wind profiles suggest that mesosystem A behaved more like a typical tropical squall line, with inflow at almost all levels at the front of the mesosystem, while mesosystem B behaved like a typical mid-latitude squall line, with inflow at lower levels and outflow at upper levels at the front of the mesosystem.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1998), S. 49-65 
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    Notes: Summary An important pattern of interannual variability in the southern African region is one where sea surface temperature (SST) in neighbouring waters, particularly in the Agulhas Current, its retroflection region and outflow across the southern midlatitudes of the Indian Ocean, is anomalously warm or cool. Evidence exists of significant rainfall anomalies over large parts of southern Africa during these warm or cool SST events. Here, a general circulation model is used to study the response of the atmosphere in the region to an idealised representation of these SST anomalies. The induced atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies over the adjacent southern African landmass on intraseasonal through to interannual time scales are investigated. A nonlinear response to the SST anomalies is found in that the changes to the model atmosphere when warm SST forcing is used are not the reverse (in either pattern or magnitude) to that when cold SST forcing is imposed. For the warm SST anomaly, it is found that the atmospheric response is favourable for enhancement of the original SST anomaly on scales up to, and including, annual. However, as the scale becomes interannual (i.e., 15–21 months after imposition of the anomaly), the model response suggests that damping of the original SST anomaly becomes likely. However, no such coherent timescale dependent response is found when the cold SST anomaly is impose. It is suggested that the relationship of the SST anomaly to the background seasonal climatology may help explain this fundamental difference in the response. Examination of the circulation and rainfall patterns under warm SST forcing indicates that there are significant anomalies over large parts of southern Africa on all scales from intraseasonal through to interannual. On the south coast, rainfall anomalies result from enhanced evaporation of moisture off the SST anomaly. Over the interior, changer in the convergence of moist air streams together with suggestions of a shift in the Walker circulations between southern Africa and the bordering tropical South Atlantic and Indian Oceans appear to be associated with the rainfall anomalies. Similar mechanisms of rainfall perturbation are found when the cold SST anomaly is imposed; however, there is a significant response only on intra-annual to interannual scales. In all cases, the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies accumulated over a 90 day season were of the order of 90–180 mm, and therefore represent a significant fraction of the annual total of many areas. These model results re-inforce previous observational work suggesting that SST anomalies south of Africa, particularly in the retroflection region of the Agulhas Current, are linked with significant rainfall anomalies over the adjacent subcontinent.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1998), S. 101-118 
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    Notes: Summary A one-dimensional chemistry-boundary layer model was used to study the effects of differing representations of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) processes on simulated concentrations of passive and chemically reactive tracers. Two local- and two nonlocal-closure ABL schemes were used to perform numerical simulations during convective conditions in the ABL. Observational data from the First International Statellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) were used to provide initial meteorological conditions while representative chemical concentrations and surface and elevated emission rates were used to provide initial chemical conditions and chemical sources to the one-dimensional model. Two sets of numerical simulations were performed using the four ABL schemes. The first set simulated bottom-to-top mixing characteristics, and the second set simulated top-to-bottom mixing characteristics. Model simulations were performed for 12h starting from 0700LT 11 July 1987. Our analysis indicate that the simulated concentrations of both passive and reactive chemical species were sensitive to the type of ABL scheme used to represent turbulent mixing processes. Characteristic features associated with each scheme (e.g., growth and intensity of mixing in the ABL) contributed to the differences among the simulated species concentrations. For some of the chemical species these differences were large, particularly in the surface layer and in the interfacial layers of the ABL. In turn, differences caused by the differing mixing representations resulted in different chemical production/destruction rates. As a consequence, the simulated species concentrations differed among the simulations. We also found that chemical species concentrations were more sensitive to the type of ABL scheme in the bottom-to-top mixing simulations than in the top-to-bottom simulations.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 65 (1998), S. 233-240 
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    Notes: Summary Dissipative heating has not been accounted for in either numerical simulations of hurricanes or in theories for the maximum intensity of hurricanes. We argue that the bulk of dissipative heating occurs in the atmospheric boundary layer near the radius of maximum winds and, using both theory and numerical simulation, show that dissipative heating increases maximum wind speeds in tropical cyclones by about 20%.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 1-10 
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    Notes: Summary This paper reports on improvements obtained in simulations of bora wind using a nesting technique in a primitive equations model. A version of the so-called Eta Model is used for both the lower resolution as well as for the higher resolution nested run. For nesting, a technique has been developed whereby for the boundary conditions “underground” model values are used. They are obtained by horizontal interpolation of model variables inside the model's eta layers. Simulations are initialized using real data. This is done in order to assess the model's performance in simulating the bora wind, an important mesoscale phenomenon caused by orography. Improvements achieved by nesting are illustrated by examples of precipitation as well as a trajectories forecast.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 65 (1998), S. 207-222 
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    Notes: Summary Tropical Cyclone Drena, a relatively long lived cyclone lasting from January 2, 1997 to January 10, 1997, crossed over three well separated island groups and affected a fourth in the south western Pacific Ocean during different stages of its life cycle. Midway through its transition into an extra-tropical low, it passed over the eastern edge of Norfolk Island, an isolated island located in the western Pacific Ocean midway between New Zealand and New Caledonia, at 0615 UTC (1745 local) on January 9, 1997. The tropical cyclone exhibited markedly different characteristics during each phase of its life cycle, with thick fog being reported during the eye passage at Norfolk Island. Although routine global and Australian region numerical models were able to provide the operational forecasters with broad scale guidance as to the movement of the tropical cyclone, the level of detail available at these resolutions is insufficient to identify the characteristics important to communities in the tropical cyclone's path. The high resolution numerical model (HIRES) developed by the University of New South Wales, was run at a resolution of 25 kilometres to investigate the evolution of the tropical cyclone from a warm cored, quasi-symmetrical vortex into a highly asymmetrical mid latitude low pressure system. The model captures the observed wind and precipitation structure of the cyclone very well during this crucial transition phase. The comparison extends into the vertical with a model derived vertical cross section depicting the key features observed in a sequence of ten specially requested radiosonde flights, released at six hourly intervals, from Norfolk Island which transect the passage of the tropical cyclone over this remote island.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 11-21 
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    Notes: Summary “Koshava” is a gusty wind of moderate to strong intensity, blowing from the south-eastern direction, over the area of the Republic of Serbia. It is caused by the interaction between the synoptic circulation and the orography of the Carpathian and the Balkan mountains. The “Koshava” wind can damage buildings, factories and industrial plants or city infrastructure. Therefore it is important to estimate its gust and the gustiness factor on the basis of the measured data. This paper discusses a statistical analysis of wind data in the maximum influence area of the “Koshava” wind in the periods of maximum duration of “Koshava”. The focus of the paper is the examination of urban and suburban effects on “Koshava” wind and the correlation between the instantaneous maximum wind speed and the hourly mean wind speed. The best fitting with various empirical distributions is proposed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 65 (1998), S. 223-231 
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    Notes: Summary In this study an attempt is made to estimate theinherent limits to tropical cyclone mean absolute track position errors out to 72 hours ahead and to compare these estimates with the position errors currently being obtained inpractice at weather centres around the world. A knowledge of the magnitude of the difference between the lower limit to predictability and that being achieved with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is of vital importance. A small difference would indicate that there is little further need for continued initiatives in the prediction of tropical cyclone tracks. On the other hand, a large difference would imply either that the problem requires continued emphasis or if there has been no significant trend towards reducing the forecast track errors, that present research and development techniques need to be extended or new procedures developed. It was found that the difference between the inherent and practical limits of tropical cyclone track position errors is presently about 35 to 40 per cent for advanced baroclinic NWP systems, a moderate to large difference, and one that is almost invariant between tropical cyclone basins. For simpler models, such as barotropic models, the difference is closer to 45 per cent but is again almost invariant. As far as the authors are aware, these are the first estimates of the lower bounds of tropical cyclone track predictability. Finally, very recent research studies with emerging range of high quality data, high density data sources, improved models and new data assimilation techniques suggest that the difference possibly is now down to about 30 to 35 per cent. This value is encouragingly small but still large enough to continue active research programs in improving tropical cyclone motion prediction. Much of the forecast track errors now come from major forecast errors associated with tropical cyclones that follow erratic tracks.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 35-50 
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    Notes: Summary A conceptually simple model based on cloud geometry is proposed to explain direct adjustment of moisture by convective clouds. The model is tested using deep convective cloud geometry and changes in upper tropospheric humidity in the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) during TOGACOARE. The model and the data emphasize the importance of clouds larger than a General Circulation Model (GCM) grid box in drying the upper topospheric environment and in sub grid scale clouds in moistening the upper topospheric environment. The convective cloud sizes and changes in moisture are shown to be linked to precipitation rates. The change from clouds that moisten to clouds that dry the environment occurs when the average cloud size in 6.8×104 km2 or rain rate of 2.1 mm hr−1. In a study of moisture change in the sub cloud layer due to convection, Barnes and Garstang (1982) demonstrated that precipitation rates greater than 2 mm hr−1 resulted in drying. The critical rain rates above which environmental drying occurs is similar for both upper tropospheric regions and the sub cloud. The similarity of the rain rates indicates that the model concepts maybe used to explain direct adjustment of moisture under a variety of conditions.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 65 (1998), S. 241-245 
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    Notes: Summary An intriguing picture is emerging of coupled track and intensity links in tropical cyclones. Since recurvature represents a dramatic track shift, recurving tropical storms are isolated in this study and their time of maximum lifetime intensity is compared to their time of recurvature. Thirty-one percent of all western North Pacific tropical storms and 28% of all such storms in North Atlantic recurve. Seventeen years of track and intensity data for recurving tropical cyclones in these basins are examined here. The overwhelming majority (≈80%) of western North Pacific tropical storms (including typhoons) reach their lifetime maximum intensity prior to recurvature. More than 45% of all recurving storms have coincident recurvature and lifetime maximum intensity, with weaker tropical storms clearly more likely to reach peak intensity at recurvature than strong systems. Inspection of tropical storm intensity and track data for North Atlantic systems reveals few clear patterns. The most robust observation to be made here is that the majority of these systems reach their peak intensity prior to recurvature. Exclusion of landfalling extratropically transforming tropical cyclones from this sample greatly reduces the number of systems, making the significance of any results questionable.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 23-34 
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    Notes: Summary Helicity, a scalar quantity resulting from the inner product of velocity and vorticity, has until now mostly been used in the field of mesoscale meteorology and boundary layer meteorology. Goals of this paper are the derivation of the flux form of the helicity equation in general form without neglection of friction and Coriolis force and the examination of helicity patterns of larger scales. The general helicity equation is approximated for the synoptic and frontal scale by use of the scale analysis. High helicity values are bounded to fronts, such that helicity determines their positions. Finally the helicity patterns at different heights and helicity sources and sinks are discussed for a case study of a cyclogenesis over the Atlantic.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 65-85 
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    Notes: Summary In this paper a retrieval technique for estimating rainfall rates is introduced. The novel feature of this technique is the combination of two satellite radiometers — the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) — with mesoscale weather prediction model data. This offers an adjustment of the model atmospheres to reality which is necessary for calculating brightness temperatures that can be compared with microwave satellite measurements. In sensitivity studies it was found that the estimation of precipitation is determined to a high degree by the particle size distribution of rain and snow, especially by the size distribution of solid hydrometeors. These studies also reveal the influence of the knowledge of the correct cloud coverage inside a SSM/I pixel and the importance of using a realistic temperature profile instead of using standard atmospheres. The retrieval technique is based on radiative transfer calculations using the model of Kummerow et al. (1989). The algorithm consists of two parts: First Guess (FG) brightness temperatures for the SSM/I frequencies are generated as a function of the cloud top height and the cloud coverage, derived from AVHRR data and predictions from a meso-scale model. The rainfall rate of different types of clouds containing raindrops, ice particles and coexisting ice and water hydrometeors is then calculated as a function of the cloud top height. As an example, a strong convective rain event over the western part of Europe and over the Alps is taken to evaluate the performance of this technique. Good agreement with radar data from the German Weather Service was achieved. Compared to statistical rainfall algorithms, the current algorithm shows a better performance of detecting rainfall areas.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 113-121 
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    Notes: Summary This work deals with the Linke turbidity factor, based on total spectrum observations of the direct solar beam and aerosol turbidity parametersa a , β, and α based on observations in broad spectral bands. Diurnal and seasonal variations of these turbidity parameters were analyzed for the period 1975 to 1991. Annual variations of these parameters show low values in winter and high values in both spring and summer. The extinction coefficients decrease with increase of both wavelength and optical airmass. Trend analysis shows an increase in aerosol extinction coefficient below 0.63 μm, and a slight decrease for longer wave-lengths. Linear regression relations are also constructed to estimate botha a and β whenT L is available. The relations show thata a can be estimated with errors below 20%. The relation with the β parameter, may give better results when it is estimated by assigning a fixed value of α.
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  • 75
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    Notes: Summary This study has used low Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) values to study the structure and evolution of the active convection across Equatorial Eastern Africa (EEA) region (5° N to 10° S, 28° E to 42° E) during the northern hemisphere spring season. This involved the examination of the map patterns and cross-sections of OLR data as derived from once-daily NOAA's Operational Polar Orbiting satellites within the period June 1974 to May 1991. The results from the study indicated that before March the mean ITCZ was active over the west Indian Ocean and Central Africa. The migration northwards of the zone of active ITCZ was associated with pre-season evolution patterns over the extratropics. The time-longitude cross-sections further indicated evidence that low OLR values were already occurring over central Africa to the west of 35° E before March. Such low OLR values penetrated to the east of 35° E in some occasions. Theresults from the study suggest that behind the surges of extratropical frontal systems strong meridional flow does occur and that these are associated with the advance of the ITCZ further northwards from extratropical regions of southern Africa. Then, active convection occurred over EEA region and this extended westwards to cover West Africa as well. The withdrawal of the ITCZ from the EEA region was however associated with the establishment of a centre of low OLR values to the southwest of Peninsula India. The results from the study further revealed that the years 1981/1984 has the lowest/highest mean OLR values in the region within the period 1974 to 1991. The time-latitude cross-sections of the anomalous years indicated that active convection crossed the EEA region from south to north of the equator early/late during the anomalous wet/dry years of 1981/1984. The number of pentads with low OLR were also more/less during 1981/1984 respectively.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 87-112 
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    Notes: Summary Atmospheric flows exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations manifested as the fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse power law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations on all space-tie scales ranging from turbulence (centimetersseconds) to climate (kilometers-years). Long-range spatiotemporal correlations are ubiquitous to dynamical systems in nature and are identified as signatures ofself-organized criticality. Standard models in meteorological theory cannot explain satisfactorily the observed self-organized criticality in atmospheric flows. Mathematical models for simulation and prediction of atmospheric flows are nonlinear and do not possess analytical solutions. Finite precision computer realizations of nonlinear models give unrealistic solutions because ofdeterministic chaos, a direct consequence of round-off error growth in iterative numerical computations. Recent studies show that roundoff error doubles on an average for each iteration of iterative computations. Round-off error propagates to the main stream computation and gives unrealistic solutions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models which incorporate thousands of iterative computations in long-term numerical integration schemes. An alternative non-deterministic cell dynamical system model for atmospheric flows described in this paper predicts the observed self-organized criticality as intrinsic to quantumlike mechanics governing flow dynamics. The model provides universal quantification for self-organized criticality in terms of the statistical normal distribution. Model predictions are in agreement with a majority of observed spectra of time series of several standard climatological data sets representative of disparate climatic regimes. Universal spectrum for natural climate variability rules out linear trends. Man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming will result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference to possible prediction of climate change.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 123-130 
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    Notes: Summary Daily sampling of atmospheric PM10 particulate was carried out using a continuously weighing, Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance (TEOM) equipped with a PM10 size selective inlet. The TEOM collects PM10 on a small filter interfaced with an inertial mass transducer, which allows near continuous weighing of the filter as the deposit accumulates. The sampler was sited at several urban and sub-urban places in Córdoba City, Argentina. With the complete data set of chemical and meteorological variables (CO, NOx, O3, wind speed, wind direction, ambient temperature, total and UV radiation, pressure and relative humidity, etc.) a stepwise regression was performed to select which variables have a major influence on the amount of PM10 measured. Results are presented from the June 1995–May 1996 field campaign. Data for PM10 values largely exceeded the one day standard average value of 150 μg m−3 during several days. The largest amount of particulate has been measured during the winter season. The primary aim of this work is to define the concentration characteristics of ambient PM10 at each site where this pollutant has been measured and to examine the seasonal variation of PM10.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 131-142 
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    Notes: Summary This paper examines a 19-level regional transfer model, EM3. The sensitivity of the results to different transfer schemes and effectiveness of using a high-precision scheme in raising modeling accuracy is examined. The use of a good scheme to improve the ability to simulate horizontal diffusion close to reality is also explored. EM3 was run with different precision schemes, i.e., a high-precision second-order moment conservation prather scheme (SOM for short) and an anti-diffusion Smolarkiewicz scheme (Smolar for short). The model was run 70 hrs. Results indicate that EM3 is much more sensitive to the precision of the schemes. SOM and Smolar, were compared, the former showing very weak numerical diffusion and computational dispersion so that positive solutions were kept. It is shown that i) numerical diffusion in SOM is one order of magnitude less compared to the latter; ii) the central intensity of transferred SO2 increases by 4–5 times and the average motion trajectory of the concentration center is much improved in SOM; iii) SOM allows EM3 to precisely reflect the real horizontal diffusion. Therefore, choice of a high-precision advection scheme for EM3 will contribute greatly to an increase in its simulation accuracy.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 143-155 
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    Notes: Summary This study addresses simulation of the local bora wind and its properties as reflected on typical trajectories. Trajectory calculations are implemented in the Eta Model. The Eta Model has a vertical coordinate which permits a step-like representation of mountains and quasi-horizontal coordinate surfaces, the so-called eta coordinate. A realistic real data simulation of a bora wind case in achieved using the model with a 28 km horizontal resolution and 16 layers in the vertical. Numerical experiments with different mountain heights and shapes in the bora wind region are performed. These are motivated by observational indications and theoretically based expectations that a certain intermediate mountain elevation is required for generation of downslope windstorms with bora wind properties. Three-dimensional trajectories over various mountains mimicing real mountains but differing primarily in elevation are calculated and analysed. The maximum bora wind speed is predicted as expected through three-dimensional channels in the step mountain representations. The results illustrate and are in agreement with the observational evidence that mountain barriers of the elevation of about 1000 m are a necessary requirement for the occurrence of the bora-type downslope windstorms.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 157-171 
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    Notes: Summary Using the 60 year period (1931–1990) gridded land surface air temperature anomalies data, the spatial and temporal relationships between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and temperature anomalies were examined. Composite temperature anomalies were prepared in respect of 11 deficient monsoon years and 9 excess monsoon years. Statistical tests were carried out to examine the significance of the composites. In addition, correlation coefficients between the temperature anomalies and Indian summer monsoon rainfall were also calculated to examine the teleconnection patterns. There were statistically significant differences in the composite of temperature anomaly patterns between excess and deficient monsoon years over north Europe, central Asia and north America during January and May, over NW India during May, over central parts of Africa during May and July and over Indian sub-continent and eastern parts of Asia during July. It has been also found that temperature anomalies over NW Europe, central parts of Africa and NW India during January and May were positively correlated with Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Similarly temperature anomalies over central Asia during January and temperature anomalies over central Africa and Indian region during July were negatively correlated. There were secular variations in the strength of relationships between temperature anomalies and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In general, temperature anomalies over NW Europe and NW India showed stronger correlations during the recent years. It has been also found that during excess (deficient) monsoon years temperature gradient over Eurasian land mass from sub-tropics to higher latitudes was directed equatowards (polewards) indicating strong (weak) zonal flow. This temperature anomaly gradient index was found to be a useful predictor for long range forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 173-195 
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    Notes: Summary The application of the theory of non-equilibrium thermodynamics to phenomena of cloud micro-physics has been examined for the example of mass growth of atmospheric water drops due to vapour diffusion and condensation. A materially and energetically closed heterogeneous system composed of a drop phase and a surrounding dry air-water vapour mixture is assumed as appropriate basic model in order to treat the concomitant theoretical aspects (comprising description of the individual growth rate, variation of moist air temperature, and drop surface conditions) in dependency on the central criteria of irreversibility. Owing to this, a main object of our theory is the thorough derivation of the budget equations of thermal energy and entropy representing, respectively, the first and second law of thermodynamics. Physically, these principles, associated with the peculiar thermodynamic behaviour of coexisting atmospheric drops and vapour, embody a suitable theoretical frame for the line of reasoning. The dominant position is owned by the production rate of entropy, a bilinear form of thermodynamic forces and fluxes. The occasion arises to postulate adequate non-equilibrium laws for the irreversible transport of matter and heat. With regard to the entropy rate of change and the thermodynamic situation in the drop-moist air model, one is left with the option to consider several alternative postulates for the fluxes and, hence, several equivalent parameterizations of the growth rate of drops. Four such approaches in accord with the thermodynamic context are discussed. As each of them depends on the surface temperatures of drops, it is expedient to complete the growth equations by a separate treatment of these micro-state variables. Practical scaling arguments for these internal thermodynamic parameters reveal that a suitable reduced form of the energy budget for the isolated drop-moist air-model system can be assumed. As a consequence, the droplet surface temperature becomes a diagnostic parameter which can be eliminated from the growth equation.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 71-81 
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    Notes: Summary A model of a frictionless rotating axisymmetric flow in an incompressible fluid is extended to the spun-up flow in the lower of two incompressible fluids, the upper fluid remaining at rest. It is shown that a steady state can be maintained only if the upper fluid extends to the surface in an inner core (the eye), the surface radius of which is determined by the strength of the tangential flow, as is the configuration of the eye wall. A secondary (meridional) circulation may also be present provided that the tangential flow has its maximum strength at middle levels. In order to relate this idealised model of a mature hurricane to the physical processes involved in its evolution, the eye wall, treated as a flow separation discontinuity in the idealised case, is considered as a transition zone between the fluids. The physical processes involved in the creation of this zone from a pre-existing ring of deep moist convection are proposed. Finally, the dynamics of the inflow layer, taking account of momentum transfer by small-scale eddies, is considered using a boundary layer model based on a modification of the classical Ekman-Taylor spiral.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 5-14 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 37-69 
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    Notes: Summary This paper attempts a synthesis of new observations and new concepts on how tropical cyclone formation occurs. Despite many worthy observational and numerical modeling studies in recent decades, our understanding of the detailed physical processes associated with the early stages of tropical cyclone formation is still inadequate; operational forecast skill is not very high. Although theoretical ideas cover a wide range of possibilities, results of new observations are helping us to narrow our search into more specific and relevant topic areas.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 66 (1998), S. 243-258 
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    Notes: Summary A general circulation model is used to study the response of the atmosphere to an idealised sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern (warm throughout the southern midlatitudes, cool in the tropics) in the South Indian Ocean region. The anomaly imposed on monthly SST climatology captures the essence of patterns observed in the South Indian Ocean during both ENSO events and multidecadal epochs, and facilitates diagnosis of the model response. A previous study with this anomaly imposed in the model examined differences in the response between that on the seasonal scale (favours enhancement of the original SST anomaly) and that on the decadal scale (favours damping of the anomaly). The current study extends that work firstly by comparing the response on the intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual scales, and secondly, by assessing the changes in the circulation and rainfall over the adjoining African landmass. It is found that the atmospheric response is favourable for enhancement of the original SST anomaly on scales up to, and including, annual. However, as the scale becomes interannual (i.e., 15–21 months after imposition of the anomaly), the model response suggests that damping of the original SST anomaly becomes likely. Compared to the shorter scale response, the perturbation pressure and wind distribution on the interannual scale is shifted poleward, and is more reminiscent of the decadal response. Winds are now stronger over the warm anomaly in the southern midlatitudes suggesting enhanced surface fluxes, upper ocean mixing, and consequently, a damping of the anomaly. Examination of the circulation and rainfall patterns indicates that there are significant anomalies over large parts of southern Africa during the spring, summer and autumn seasons for both short (intraseasonal to interannual) and decadal scales. It appears that rainfall anomalies are associated with changes in the advection of moist tropical air from the Indian Ocean and its related convergence over southern Africa. Over eastern equatorial Africa, the austral autumn season (the main wet season) showed rainfall increases on all time scales, while parts of central to eastern subtropical southern Africa were dry. The signals during summer were more varied. Spring showed generally dry conditions over the eastern half of southern Africa on both short and decadal time scales, with wet areas confined to the west. In all cases, the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies accumulated over a 90 day season were of the order of 90–180 mm, and therefore represent a significant fraction of the annual total of many areas. It appears that relatively modest SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean can lead to sizeable rainfall anomalies in the model. Although precipitation in general circulation models tends to be less accurately simulated than many other variables, the model results, together with previous observational work, emphasize the need for ongoing monitoring of SST in this region.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 83-92 
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    Notes: Summary The instability due to cumulus heating in the inner region of a balanced slab-symmetric two-layer model with an underlying Ekman layer is analysed. In satisfying the water balance the heating comprises two terms: One can be associated with the wind-evaporation feedback (representing a WISHE-type parameterisation) and replaces the CISK-type heating originally employed in the classical Charney-Eliassen model. The second is associated with the mid-level vertical mass flux. The model comprises two regimes of instability depending on the scale and the dominance of either one of the heating terms: (i) Dominance of the WISHE-type heating is characterised by hyperbolic meridional eigenfunctions, which represent the spatial structure of the inner region. It requires sufficient intensity of the surface heat exchange to obtain finite growth rates within a finite scale range. Beyond a certain threshold of the heating parameter the unstable scale range extends to infinitely large values. The maximum growth rates, though relatively small, occur at the smaller scale limit, which separates both regimes. (ii) Dominance of the mid-level term requires trigonometric meridional eigenfunctions to represent the spatial structure of the inner region; the growth rates range from zero to infinity associated with a finite range of spatial scales. It joins the other regime at its large growth (and small scale) boundary. In this linear model the influence of wind induced surface heat exchange tends to enlarge the spectrum of spatial scales effected by the heating induced instability.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 93-116 
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    Notes: Summary A critical meteorological knowledge base for the application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting of Carr and Elsberry is the environment structure, which is a small set of synoptic patterns and synoptic regions that characterize the tracks. As the original Systematic Approach for the western North Pacific has been applied to the eastern and central North Pacific by Boothe and to the Southern Hemisphere by Bannister et al., the conceptual models of the synoptic patterns have been generalized. Whereas only slight modifications of three of the original four synoptic patterns are required in the two new basin applications, the monsoon gyre pattern of the western North Pacific must be replaced with an upper-low pattern in the eastern and central North Pacific and by a high-amplitude midlatitude trough/ridge in the Southern Hemisphere. An important conclusion is that the environment structure of all tropical cyclones in these three basins could be classified into these small sets. Furthermore, each synoptic pattern/region has a set of characteristic tracks, and a change in environment structure has an associated track change. Comparisons and contrasts of these environmental structures demonstrates that the relative importance of the monsoon trough, subtropical ridge, and midlatitude circulations can account for first-order variations in TC tracks within these three tropical cyclone basins. Summaries of the occurrence of synoptic pattern/region transitions are given for the three basins. Although each TC basin has special characteristics, the general application of the Systematic Approach suggests a unified treatment is possible. Further development along this line is expected to improve the accuracy and consistency of forecasts and warnings.
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    Notes: Summary The probabilistic approach to tropical cyclogenesis is advanced here by examining the role of convection in the early stages. The development of “hot towers”, that is tall cumulonimbus towers which reach or penetrate the tropopause, and their role in tropical cyclogenesis is investigated in two well-documented cases of formation. namely hurricane Daisy (1958) in the Atlantic and Tropical Cyclone Oliver (1993) in the Coral Sea. The hot towers in Daisy had been intensively studied by Malkus and Riehl three decades ago but remained mainly unpublished. The dynamics of Oliver genesis by merging mesoscale vortices has been recently reported, but much of the aircraft data remained. This paper adds the evolving contribution of cumulus-scale events and their associated electrification, which was made possible by the addition of an electric field mill, a numerical cloud model and other remote sensors. In their genesis stages, Daisy and Oliver appeared very different because Daisy resulted from a deepening tropical wave in the Atlantic and the pre-Oliver vortex emerged eastward from the Australian monsoon trough. However, the vertical profiles of θE in the rain areas were nearly identical, with the characteristic concave shape showing substantial midlevel minima. Therefore, both required increasing upflux of high θE subcloud air in order to accomplish the formation stage, with about two hot towers each in the nascent eyewall. In both cases, partial eyewalls developed at the edge of the convection, permitting subsidence in the forming eye, which was shown to contribute to the pressure fall. The probabilistic concept proposes that any contribution to early pressure fall raises the probability of success. When the incipient storm goes through those fragile phases more rapidly, the risk of death by the onset of unfavorable large-scale factors such as wind shear or upper-level subsidence is reduced. Daisy developed in an inactive, moist environment with light, variable winds throughout the troposphere while in Oliver, strong divergent upper outflow apparently outweighed strong wind shear, although the latter was responsible for a slow and messy development of a closed, circular eye. In both storms, the hot towers in the major rainband were taller and stronger than those in the early eyewall. Onedimensional time-dependent model runs were used to simulate both in Oliver with two important results: 1) the taller rainband clouds permitted greater high level heating, if it could be retained; and 2) greater electrification and more lighting occurred in the rainband although the partial eyewall clouds also showed strong electrification. Airborne radar, electrification measurements and models are fitted together to understand their relationship. An important result is the clear inference that fairly deep mixed phase regions existed in both eyewall and rainband, in which the DC-8 aircraft experienced liquid water at temperatures colder than −40°C below freezing. These results show that the claims of no supercooled liquid water in tropical cyclones require re-examination with the proper measurements of electricification that are now feasible.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 65 (1998), S. 1-10 
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    Notes: Summary In connection with a number of recent publications on “anomalous” (“excessive”) absorption of shortwave radiation (SWR) by clouds, the data of aircraft observations of spectral and total SWR vertical profiles in the troposphere obtained within the CAENEX, GAAREX and FGGE programmes have been discussed. These data demonstrated persuasively the existence of substantial SWR absorption by clouds in the visible wavelength region. In this context, the results of simulation numerical medelling of the SWR transfer in clouds have been considered. These show a significant enhancement of the SWR absorption by clouds due to an increase of the mean free path of photons under an impact of multiple scattering in clouds. Another important consideration may be the impact of SWR-absorbing pollutants in clouds, especially soot aerosols.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 65 (1998), S. 141-151 
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    Notes: Summary Tropical cyclone track prediction remains a vexing problem in meteorology, particularly for numerical weather prediction. While there has been significant improvement in forecast skill in recent years, errors in prognosis, particularly for recurving cyclones still remain unacceptably high. Consistent with track prediction being to a significant extent an initial value problem, there has been, in recent years, cogent evidence that, a combination of high resolution numerical modelling, the use of appropriate assimilation techniques and the exploitation of high spatial and temporal resolution observations can improve the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasts. Before landfall, tropical cyclones have their genesis and move over the data-sparse tropical oceans. Here the prediction of their movement is an application for which remotely sensed data are quintessential. In this context, this paper examines the increasingly important contribution of cloud and water vapour motion vectors to tropical cyclone prediction and evaluates their import to accurate prediction in terms of both the numerical modelling characteristics and the data assimilation techniques employed. Overall, it is shown that cloud and water vapour drift winds have made a significant contribution to the tropical cyclone track forecasting problem when used with conventional intermittent assimilation techniques, such as 6-hourly cycling, and, more recently, with continuous assimilation techniques such as 3- and 4-dimensional variational assimilation. These continuous assimilation schemes appear to have the potential to use near continuous asynoptic wind data in the most effective way.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 65 (1998), S. 197-205 
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    Notes: Summary The number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region (south of equator; 105–160° E) has apparently declined since the start of reliable (satellite) observations in the 1969/70 season. However, the number of more intense cyclones (with minimum pressures dropping to 970 hPa or lower) has increased slightly. The numbers of weak (minimum pressures not dropping below 990 hPa) and moderate systems (minimum pressures between 970 and 990 hPa) have declined. Possible reasons for these different trends are discussed. The decline in the number of weaker cyclones may at least partly reflect improved understanding of the nature of some weak systems. The decline in the number of cyclones more intense than 990 hPa primarily reflects the downward trend in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Previous work has demonstrated that the number of tropical cyclones observed in the Australian region each cyclone season is related to the value of the SOI prior to the start of the cyclone season. This relationship is clearest with the number of moderate cyclones. The SOI is only weakly related to the number of intense or weak cyclones. The increase in the number of intense cyclones is not attributable to the trend in the SOI. Nor is there clear reason, at present, to suspect that it is artificial (i.e., due to changes in observing or analysis techniques).
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  • 92
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 65 (1998), S. 171-181 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Intensity forecasts of a hurricane are shown to be quite sensitive to the initial meso-convective scale precipitation distributions. These are included within the data assimilation using a physical initialization that was developed at Florida State University. We show a case study of a hurricane forecast where the inclusion of the ‘observed’ precipitation did provide reasonable intensity forecasts. Further experimentation with the inclusion or exclusion of individual meso-convective rainfall elements, around and over the storm, shows that the intensity forecasts were quite sensitive to these initial rainfall distributions. The exclusion of initial rain in the inner rain area of a hurricane leads to a much reduced intensity forecast, whereas that impact is less if the rainfall of an outer rain band was initially excluded. Intensity forecasts of hurricanes may be sensitive to a number of factors such as sea surface temperature anomalies, presence or absence of concentric eye walls, potential vorticity interactions in the upper troposphere and other environmental factors. This paper is a sequel to a recent study, Krishnamurti et al., 1997, on the prediction of hurricane OPAL of 1995 that was a category III storm over the Gulf of Mexico. In that study we showed successful forecasts of the storm intensity from the inclusion of observed rainfall distributions within physical initialization. In that paper we examined the issues of diabatic potential vorticity and the angular momentum in order to diagnose the storm intensity. All of the terms of the complete Ertel potential vorticity equation were evaluated and it was concluded that the diabatic contributions to the potential vorticity were quite important for the diagnosis of the storm's intensity. The present paper addresses some sensitivity issues related to the individual mesoconvective precipitating elements.
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  • 93
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1998), S. 119-135 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary The total ozone decline during the past twenty years, especially strong during the winter-spring season poleward from 50° N, is well established with known average trends of 5–7% per decade. This study presents a number of additional characteristics such as ozone-mass deficiency (O3MD) from the pre- 1976 base average, and areal extent with negative deviations greater than∼2 and∼3δ. Gridded satellite data combined with ground-based total ozone maps, permit calculations of daily and regional ozone deficiencies from the anthropogenically undisturbed average ozone levels of the 1960s and early 1970s. Then the quantity of the O3MD and the changes in surface area, with deficiencies larger than-10 and-15% are integrated for the 1 January to 15 April period for each of the last 20 years, and compared. In addition, the polar vortex extent during the last 10 years is determined using the PV at 475°K. The quantity of the O3MD within the sunlit part of the vortex is shown to contribute from∼15 to 35% of the overall ozone deficiency within the-10% contours over the area 35–90°N. The ozone deficiency, integrated for the first 105 days of each year, has increased dramatically from ∼2,800Mt in the early 1980s to∼7,800Mt in the 1990s, exceeded 12,000Mt in the winter-springs of 1993 and 1995. The latter quantity is comparable with the average O3MD over the same Southern latitudes in the last ten austral springs. During the 1990s over the 35–90° latitudes the average ozone deficiency in the Southern hemisphere belt is less than over the Northern hemisphere belt by∼40%. It is known that the main ozone decline is observed in the lower stratosphere and the ozone loss over the Arctic is very sensitive to decreasing stratospheric temperatures; negative 50hPa monthly anomalies greater than 4°C have occurred during 7 of the springs in the last decade, thus possibly facilitating doubling the area with negative ozone deviations greater than-10% in the 1990s to∼5,000.106km2 and nearly tripling the O3MD as stated above. The changes in total eddy heat fluxes as a proxy indicator of the long wave perturbations are positively correlated with the ozone deficiency in the 45–75°N. The strong anticorrelation between the ozone deficiency in the region〉55° N. versus the 35–50° N belt is discussed in relation to possible transport of air masses with low ozone from the sub-tropics, which in some years are the dominant reason for the observed ozone deficiency.
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  • 94
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 117-134 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary In this paper we address the issue of monsoon forecasts in relation to the organization of convection. Given a physical initialization procedure, within a data assimilation, it is possible to use the detailed distribution of rainfall from mesoconvective precipitating elements to define the initial state of a global model. If that is carried out using a very high resolution model then the initial state can carry within it an organization of convection within the resolvable scales. Then the impact of physical initialization on the maintenance and prediction of tropical weather such as the monsoon can be determined. Lacking such an initialization, one can expect the convectively driven energetics to be biased, and a slow degradation of the forecasts can follow. Several examples of forecasts at different resolutions are discussed here. The main findings of this study are that improved forecast results are obtained when physical initialization is invoked where the observed rain and the model resolution are comparable, i.e. the footprint of the highest resolutions rainfall estimates obtained from satellite based data sets (principally we use the SSM/I instrument over the oceans). At this resolution, we note that the model is able to carry an organization of convection in the initialization and in the forecasts through the medium-range time scale. We have compared our results of monsoon studies at a resolution T255 with those at resolution T62. The transform grid separation at the resolution T255 is approximately 50 km and at the resolution T62, it is approximately 200 km. We find that the model at the higher resolution (T255) performs better and has more realistic energy conversions for the convectively driven synoptic scale monsoon. An organization of convection, at the synoptic scales, is not seen in the forecasts at lower resolutions, T62, where the rainfall patterns are generally much broader and tend to be more zonal. Such organization appears more realistic at the resolution T255. Variances of the energy conversion, calculated in the two-dimensional spectral space, from physically initialized short range forecasts at the higher resolution are seen to be largest on the scales of the monsoon. Similar calculations for the reanalyzed fields at lower resolutions show the spectral distribution of variances to be biased towards local Hadley scale overturnings.
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  • 95
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 135-152 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Convection, a sub-gridscale process, is coupled to the gridscale motions via the averaged budget equations. In this study atmospheric convection is represented by the vertical eddy flux of equivalent temperature, referred to asconvective flux. It is demonstrated with a thermodynamic diagnostic model for an atmospheric column (DIAMOD) that the convective flux can, with tolerable error, be diagnosed from daily global gridscale analyses. These yield the gridscale budget of equivalent temperature. The budget is the observable quantity, it is in balance with the unobservable convective flux. We reproduce the known result that in convectively active atmospheric columns the budget is negative in lower and positive in upper layers. The corresponding vertical mean slope of the budget controls the convective strength; the slope is strongly negative for deep convection. In the global mean column the convective flux converges upward throughout the entire atmosphere. In actual convective situations, however, the flux diverges in lower layers, reaches highest intensity somewhere between 700–500 hPa and converges in the upper atmosphere. We find maximum fluxes around 600 W/m2 in individual tropical columns and extreme fluxes exceeding 1000 W/m2 in midlatitude columns. In the monthly mean however, the convective flux is clearly larger in the tropics; it also reaches to significantly higher levels in the tropics than in midlatitudes. While these qualitative results are invariant against using both routine analysis and reanalysis data from different sources (ECMWF and NCEP) our results change quantitatively when changing the data sources. We attribute this effect to differences in the sub-gridscale parameterization implicit in the objective data assimilation of the weather centres which are not completely removed by the incoming observation data in the final analyses.
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  • 96
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 67 (1998), S. 153-168 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary To meet the challenge of developing a comprehensive weather and climate prediction model which can give realistic scenarios for many time scales, more computer power than is currently available will be needed. One possibility for alleviating this shortcoming is to increase the integration timestep. We propose and test several methods which may prove useful. One procedure is an expansion of the model dependent variables in a Taylor series. Application of this method to simple models indicates acceptable increases in timestep by a factor of five. A multi-level approach which is less complex to apply gives comparable results and is more successful when high accuracy is desired. To bypass the limiting constraint of the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition on gravity waves, an approach is suggested in which the prediction model is represented in its normal modes and the high frequency modes are balanced while the low frequency modes are predicted. Experiments with this procedure are described and in combination with the multi-level integration technique show substantial increases in integration timestep for acceptable integration results, both on the forecast and climate scale. Experiments are now underway applying this process to the NCAR/CCM3, a state-of-the-art model.
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  • 97
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 68 (1998), S. 221-233 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary The quality control of rain amount data is usually based on a posteriori defined sets of empirical thresholds, e.g. when crosscheking neighbouring observations. While these procedures are well suited for very long time series, it is difficult to adopt the rules for time series of special observation periods with higher resolution in time. We propose a linear Kalman filter and present several methods, how to fit it onto the stochastic structure of the time series in the presence of many zeroes. These zeroes may indicate light rain or no rain and, therefore, are considered censored. They do not fit into the stochastic structure of the non-zero values and have to be treated separately. Fitting one out of four model parameters of the Kalman filter also determinates two other dependent ones. Only one model parameter has to be known from independent sources. The fitting algorithms are tested with artificial rain rate time series with known stochastic structure and several zero rain data points. Furthermore, applied to time series of observed hourly rain amounts for 4 consecutive winter months, the Kalman filter shows its sensitivity for faulty data points. The detection of conspicuous data by the method of Kalman filtering is discussed.
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  • 98
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1998), S. 1-21 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary A torrential precipitation event occurred in Catalonia (northeastern part of Spain) during 9 and 10 October 1994. More than 400mm were registered in the south of Catalonia. A diagnostic study shows that most of the ingredients to produce heavy rain (large scale upward vertical motion, instability, high moisture content in all the troposphere) were present over the Spanish coast and western Mediterranean. Mesoscale triggering mechanisms have been associated with the orographic forcing, not only through physical lifting of moist air by the coastal mountains, but also by the redistribution of the surface pressure field induced by the Atlas and Pyrenees ranges. A numerical simulation of the event using a meso-β model has been performed. The model forecasts qualitatively well the rainfall distribution but underestimates the maximum rainfalls. The effects of the orography and the evaporation from the sea have been also studied. The simulations have shown that the action of the orography is decisive for the rainfall, pressure and wind distrbutions over the Spanish coast and the western Mediterranean. The isolated action of the evaporation turns to be much less important. However the combined effect of orography and evaporation is the most important factor in the areas where the greatest amount of rainfall occurred.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1998), S. 39-47 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary This paper documents a tropospheric synoptic-scale wavelike disturbance over Northern Africa and the tropical Atlantic during summer, in the 3.–5.day band period, different from the African wave. It has a velocity of 10–12 degree longitude per day instead of 6–8, a slighter shorter period, i.e. 3.5 instead of 4.5 days. It is best seen between 5°–7° N whilst the African wave has its largest amplitude about 12° N. The data used are NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and radiosonde data.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1998), S. 81-100 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary The impact of pronounced positive and negative sea surface temperature (STT) anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the boreal winter season is investigated. This includes both the impact on the seasonal mean flow and on the intraseasonal variability on synoptic time scales. Moreover, the interaction between the transient fluctuations on these times scales and the mean circulation is examined. Both data from an ensemble of five simulations with the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model at a horizontal resolution of T42 each covering the period from 1979 through 1992 and operational analyses from ECMWF for the corresponding period are examined. In each of the simulations observed SSTs for the period of investigation are given as lower boundary forcing, but different atmospheric initial conditions are prescribed. The simulations with ECHAM3 reveal a distinct impact of the pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific on the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during El Niño as well as during La Niña events. These changes in the atmospheric circulation, which are found to be highly significant in the Pacific/North American as well as in the Atlantic/European region, are consistent with the essential results obtained from the analyses. The pronounced SST-anomalies in the tropical Pacific lead to changes in the mean circulation, which are characterized by typical circulation patterns. These changes in the mean circulation are accompanied by marked variations of the activity of the transient fluctuations on synoptic time scales, that are changes in both the kinetic energy on these time scales and the atmospheric transports of momentum and heat accomplished by the short baroclinic waves. The synoptic disturbances, on the other hand, play also an important role in controlling the changes in the mean circulation associated with the ENSO phenomenon. They maintain these typical circulation patterns via barotropic, but counteract them via baroclinic processes. The hypothesis of an impact of the ENSO phenomenon in the Atlantic/European region can be supported. As the determining factor the intensification (reduction) of the Aleutian low and the simultaneous reduction (intensification) of the Icelandic low during El Niño and during La Niña events respectively, is identified. The changes in the intensity of the Aleutian low during the ENSO-events are accompanied by an alteration of the transport of momentum caused by the short baroclinic waves over the North American continent in such a way that the changes in the intensity of the Icelandic low during El Niño as well as during La Niña events are maintained.
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