ALBERT

Description: The Lacq area in southwest France has been associated with continuous moderate induced seismic activity since 1969. However, the mechanisms driving this induced seismicity are not fully understood: reservoir depletion has been proposed as the main factor, and more recently wastewater injection has been suggested to play a more important role (Grasso et al., 2021). The interpretation of these mechanisms relies heavily on the quality of earthquake locations, which we prove to be weak due to a lack of local instrumentation for several years. In order to provide the most complete and reliable induced event catalog for the studies of the Lacq induced seismicity mechanisms & seismic hazard, we made an exhaustive compilation, analysis and improvement of all available catalogs. We also provided new earthquake detections & relocations in a 3D velocity model from past and present temporary deployments never used for studying the Lacq area. Important remaining location uncertainties lead us to also carefully sort the events according to their location confidence, defining 3 classes of events (unconstrained location, location constrained within 2-3 km and 1-2 km respectively). This new harmonized catalog and the identification of well-constrained events, covering 50 years of induced seismicity, allow us to propose that wastewater injection is almost certainly the main mechanism driving the seismicity, with (i) most of the constrained events located within the reservoir boundaries and (ii) the released seismic energy variations following variations in injection operations at different scales. In particular, we have also highlighted a change in the injection-seismicity relationship around 2010–2013. From 2013, despite lower injection volumes, seismicity remained persistent and some clusters of earthquakes were detected predominantly in spring, summer, and early autumn, except in winter periods. From 2016, we observed a strong temporal relationship between days with higher rate/volume injections (approximately above 400m3/day) and both clustered events and higher magnitude earthquakes (greater than 2.4).

Description: This dataset reports measurements from a laboratory incubation of soils sourced from a boreal peatland and surrounding habitats (Siikaneva Bog, Finland). In August 2021, soil cores were collected from three habitat zones: a well-drained upland forest, an intermediate margin ecotone, and a Sphagnum moss bog. The cores from each habitat were taken from surface to approximately 50cm below surface using an Eijelkamp peat corer and subdivided by soil horizon. The samples were then incubated anaerobically for 140 days in three temperature treatment groups (0, 4, 20°C). Subsamples of the incubations headspace (250 µL) were measured on a gas chromatograph (7890A, Agilent Technologies, USA) with flame ionization detection (FID) for CO2 and CH4 concentrations. The rate of respiration from the samples were calculated per gram carbon and per gram soil as described in the method of Robertson., et al. (1999) and reported here, along with other relevant parameters.

Description: The 2022 revision of Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM2022) has involved significant revision of all datasets and model components. In this article, we present a subset of many results from the model as well as an overview of the governance, scientific, and review processes followed by the NZ NSHM team. The calculated hazard from the NZ NSHM 2022 has increased for most of New Zealand when compared with the previous models. The NZ NSHM 2022 models and results are available online.

Description: A seismicity rate model (SRM) has been developed as part of the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model revision. The SRM consists of many component models, each of which falls into one of two classes: (1) inversion fault model (IFM); or (2) distributed seismicity model (DSM). Here we provide an overview of the SRM and a brief description of each of the component models. The upper plate IFM forecasts the occurrence rate for hundreds of thousands of potential ruptures derived from the New Zealand Community Fault Model version 1.0 and utilizing either geologic- or geodeticbased fault-slip rates. These ruptures are typically less than a couple of hundred kilometers long, but can exceed 1500 km and extend along most of the length of the country (albeit with very low probabilities of exceedance [PoE]). We have also applied the IFM method to the two subduction zones of New Zealand and forecast earthquake magnitudes of up to ∼Mw 9.4, again with very low PoE. The DSM combines a hybrid model developed using multiple datasets with a non-Poisson uniform rate zone model for lower seismicity regions of New Zealand. Forecasts for 100 yr are derived that account for overdispersion of the rate variability when compared with Poisson. Finally, the epistemic uncertainty has been modeled via the range of models and parameters implemented in an SRM logic tree. Results are presented, which indicate the sensitivity of hazard results to the logic tree branches and that were used to reduce the overall complexity of the logic tree.

Description: We present a kinematic model developed from geodetic observations, topography analysis and analogue tectonic modelling results, which reveals a striking similarity between the rotational tectonic settings of the Gakkel Ridge-Chersky Range system in the Arctic, and the Central Indian Tectonic Zone within the Indian subcontinent. A crucial aspect of large-scale extensional rift systems is the gradual variation of extension along the rift axis, due to plate rotation about a Euler pole, which may lead to contraction on the opposite side of the Euler pole to form a rotational tectonic system. Our geodetic and topographic analysis, combined with the reanalysis of analogue tectonic modelling results demonstrates such rotational tectonic plate motion in both the Arctic and Indian case. However, the plate boundary between the North American and Eurasian Plates as represented by the Arctic Gakkel Ridge-Chersky Range system is strongly localized, whereas the Central Indian Tectonic Zone that separates the North and South India Plates involves diffuse deformation instead. Furthermore, in both the Arctic and Central Indian we find that the relative Euler rotation pole is located near an indenter-like feature, which possibly controls the present-day rotational tectonics and contrasting topography on opposite sides of the Euler pole.

Description: We present a seismic catalog (Bindi et al., 2024, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.6.2023.010) including energy magnitude Me estimated from P waves recorded at teleseismic distances in the range 20° 1 98° and for depths shorter than 80 km. The catalog is built starting from the event catalog disseminated by GEOFON (GEOFOrschungsNetz), considering 6349 earthquakes with moment magnitude Mw 5 occurring between 2011 and 2023. Magnitudes are computed using 1 031 396 freely available waveforms archived in EIDA (European Integrated Data Archive) and IRIS (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology) repositories, retrieved through the standard International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) web services (https://www.fdsn.org/webservices/, last access: March 2024). A reduced, high-quality catalog for events with Mw 5〉_8 and from which stations and events with only few recordings were removed forms the basis of a detailed analysis of the residuals of individual station measurements, which are decomposed into station- and event-specific terms and a term accounting for remaining variability. The derived Me values are compared to Mw computed by GEOFON and with the Me values calculated by IRIS. Software and tools developed for downloading and processing waveforms for bulk analysis and an add-on for SeisComP for real-time assessment of Me in a monitoring context are also provided alongside the catalog. The SeisComP add-on has been part of the GEOFON routine processing since December 2021 to compute and disseminate Me for major events via the existing services.

Description: To test whether a globally inferred sediment thickness value from geomorphological studies can be used as a proxy to predict earthquake site amplification, we derive site-amplification models from the relation between empirical amplification for sites in Europe and Türkiye and the geomorphological sediment thickness. The new site-amplification predictions are then compared to predictions from site-amplification models derived using the traditional site proxies, VS30 inferred from slope, slope itself, and geological era and slope combined. The ability of each proxy to capture the site amplification is evaluated based on the reduction in site-to-site variability caused by each proxy. The results show that the highest reduction is caused by geological era and slope combined, while the geomorphological sediment thickness shows a slightly larger or equal reduction in site-to-site variability as inferred VS30 and slope. We therefore argue that including geology and geomorphology in site-amplification modelling on regional scale can give an important added value and that globally or regionally inferred models for soil and sediment thickness from fields beyond engineering seismology can have a great potential in regional seismic hazard and risk assessments. Furthermore, the differences between the site-amplification maps derived from different proxies capture the epistemic uncertainty of site-amplification modelling. While the different proxies predict similar features on a large scale, local differences can be large. This shows that using only one proxy when predicting site amplification does not capture the full epistemic uncertainty, which is demonstrated by looking into detail on the site-amplification maps predicted for eastern Türkiye and Syria, where the devastating Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence occurred in February 2023.

Description: The death toll andmonetary damages from landslides continue to rise despite advancements in predictive modeling. These models’ performances are limited as landslide databases used in developing them often miss crucial information, e.g., underlying movement types. This study introduces a method of discerning landslide movements, such as slides, flows, and falls, by analyzing landslides’ 3D shapes. By examining landslide topological properties, we discover distinct patterns in their morphology, indicating different movements including complex ones with multiple coupled movements. We achieve 80- 94% accuracy by applying topological properties in identifying landslide movements across diverse geographical and climatic regions, including Italy, the US Pacific Northwest, Denmark, Turkey, and Wenchuan in China. Furthermore, we demonstrate a real-world application on undocumented datasets from Wenchuan. Our work introduces a paradigm for studying landslide shapes to understand their underlying movements through the lens of landslide topology, which could aid landslide predictive models and risk evaluations.

Description: Bones and teeth are often the only fossil remains of vertebrates that are preserved over geological time in sedimentary rocks. They render valuable archives for geochemical proxies which are commonly used for paleo-reconstructions. However, the fossilization mechanisms of bone are not yet well understood. Crucial processes are the transformation of bioapatite and the replacement of collagen by thermodynamically more stable apatite phases, such as fluorapatite. In the present study, aqueous alteration experiments on cortical bone samples were performed under simulated early diagenetic conditions in order to investigate whether and how an external PO4 source affects post mortem bone mineralization. Additionally, abiotic oxygen isotope exchange mechanisms between bioapatite and aqueous solutions were assessed by using either 18O-enriched water or phosphate as a tracer. The presence of an external sedimentary 18O-labeled PO4 source led to a rapid formation of new fluorapatite crystallites at the sample’s margin that was highly enriched in 18O. Meanwhile, in the interior of the samples carbonate-poor HAp formed through a dissolution-precipitation process without incorporating any of the 18O tracer. These two processes appear to act independently from each other. In samples exposed to 18O-labeled aqueous solutions lacking a PO4 source, no newly grown apatite crystallites were found, however in the interior of these samples, nano-crystalline carbonate-poor or -free hydroxylapatite precipitated. A comparatively low but uniform 18O-enrichment was measured from the sample’s margin towards its interior, which is assumed to have resulted from the adsorption of H218O onto crystallite surface sites and collagen. Overall, our results suggest that a fast incorporation of 18O-doped PO4 from the sediment source accelerated bone mineralization and consequently changed the oxygen isotope composition of the PO4 group in the bone mineral phase more rapidly and to a greater extent than in a diagenetic setting lacking additional external PO4. Dissolved phosphate from the taphonomic setting thus seems to be an important factor fostering bone fossilization and preservation as well as oxygen isotope alteration.

Description: Global climate warming is accelerating permafrost degradation. The large amounts of soil organic matter in permafrost-affected soils are prone to increased microbial decomposition in a warming climate. Along with permafrost degradation, changes to the soil microbiome play a crucial role in enhancing our understanding and in predicting the feedback of permafrost carbon. In this article, we review the current state of knowledge of carbon-cycling microbial ecology in permafrost regions. Microbiomes in degrading permafrost exhibit variations across spatial and temporal scales. Among the short-term, rapid degradation scenarios, thermokarst lakes have distinct biogeochemical conditions promoting emission of greenhouse gases. Additionally, extreme climatic events can trigger drastic changes in microbial consortia and activity. Notably, environmental conditions appear to exert a dominant influence on microbial assembly in permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, as the global climate is closely connected to various permafrost regions, it will be crucial to extend our understanding beyond local scales, for example by conducting comparative and integrative studies between Arctic permafrost and alpine permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau at global and continental scales. These comparative studies will enhance our understanding of microbial functioning in degrading permafrost ecosystems and help inform effective strategies for managing and mitigating the impacts of climate change on permafrost regions.

Description: Primary granitic melt inclusions are trapped in garnets of eclogites in the garnet peridotite body of Pfaffenberg, Granulitgebirge (Bohemian Massif, Germany). These polycrystalline inclusions, based on their nature and composition, can be called nanogranitoids and contain mainly phlogopite/biotite, kumdykolite, quartz/rare cristobalite, a phase with the main Raman peak at 412 cm-1, a phase with the main Raman peak at 430 cm-1, osumilite and plagioclase. The melt is hydrous, peraluminous and granitic and significantly enriched in large ion lithophile elements (LILE), Th, U, Li, B and Pb. The melt major element composition resembles that of melts produced by the partial melting of metasediments, as also supported by its trace element signature characterized by elements (LILE, Pb, Li and B) typical of the continental crust. These microstructural and geochemical features suggest that the investigated melt originated in the subducted continental crust and interacted with the mantle to produce the Pfaffenberg eclogite. Moreover, in situ analyses and calculations based on partition coefficients between apatite and melt show that the melt was also enriched in Cl and F, pointing toward the presence of a brine during melting. The melt preserved in inclusions can thus be regarded as an example of a metasomatizing agent present at depth and responsible for the interaction between the crust and the mantle. Chemical similarities between this melt and other metasomatizing melts measured in other eclogites from the Granulitgebirge and Erzgebirge, in addition to the overall similar enrichment in trace elements observed in other metasomatized mantle rocks from central Europe, suggest an extended crustal contamination of the mantle beneath the Bohemian Massif during the Variscan orogeny.

Description: Watershed management requires an understanding of key hydrochemical processes. The Pra Basin is one of the five major river basins in Ghana with a population of over 4.2 million people. Currently, water resources management faces challenges due to surface water pollution caused by the unregulated release of untreated household and industrial waste into aquatic ecosystems and illegal mining activities. This has increased the need for groundwater as the most reliable water supply. Our understanding of groundwater recharge mechanisms and chemical evolution in the basin has been inadequate, making effective management difficult. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to gain insight into the processes that determine the hydrogeochemical evolution of groundwater quality in the Pra Basin. The combined use of stable isotope, hydrochemistry, and water level data provides the basis for conceptualizing the chemical evolution of groundwater in the Pra Basin. For this purpose, the origin and evaporation rates of water infiltrating into the unsaturated zone were evaluated. In addition, Chloride Mass Balance (CMB) and Water Table Fluctuations (WTF) were considered to quantify groundwater recharge for the basin. Indices such as water quality index (WQI), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), Wilcox diagram, and salinity (USSL) were used in this study to determine the quality of the resource for use as drinking water and for irrigation purposes. Due to the heterogeneity of the hydrochemical data, the statistical techniques of hierarchical cluster and factor analysis were applied to subdivide the data according to their spatial correlation. A conceptual hydrogeochemical model was developed and subsequently validated by applying combinatorial inverse and reaction pathway-based geochemical models to determine plausible mineral assemblages that control the chemical composition of the groundwater. The interactions between water and rock determine the groundwater quality in the Pra Basin. The results underline that the groundwater is of good quality and can be used for drinking water and irrigation purposes. It was demonstrated that there is a large groundwater potential to meet the entire Pra Basin’s current and future water demands. The main recharge area was identified as the northern zone, while the southern zone is the discharge area. The predominant influence of weathering of silicate minerals plays a key role in the chemical evolution of the groundwater. The work presented here provides fundamental insights into the hydrochemistry of the Pra Basin and provides data important to water managers for informed decision-making in planning and allocating water resources for various purposes. A novel inverse modelling approach was used in this study to identify different mineral compositions that determine the chemical evolution of groundwater in the Pra Basin. This modelling technique has the potential to simulate the composition of groundwater at the basin scale with large hydrochemical heterogeneity, using average water composition to represent established spatial groupings of water chemistry.

Description: Die Bewirtschaftung von Wassereinzugsgebieten erfordert ein Verständnis der wichtigsten hydrochemischen Prozesse. Das Pra-Becken ist eines der fünf großen Flusseinzugsgebiete Ghanas mit einer Bevölkerung von über 4,2 Millionen Menschen. Die Bewirtschaftung der Wasserressourcen wird derzeit durch die Verschmutzung der Oberflächengewässer erschwert, die durch die unkontrollierte Einleitung von unbehandelten Haushalts- und Industrieabfällen in die aquatischen Ökosysteme und durch illegale Bergbauaktivitäten entsteht. Dies hat den Bedarf an Grundwasser als zuverlässigste Wasserversorgung erhöht. Unser Verständnis der Mechanismen der Grundwasserneubildung und der chemischen Entwicklung im Einzugsgebiet ist bislang unzureichend, was eine wirksame Bewirtschaftung erschwert. Daher ist das Hauptziel dieser Arbeit Einblicke in die Prozesse zu bekommen, welche die hydrogeochemische Entwicklung der Grundwasserqualität im Pra-Becken bestimmen. Die kombinierte Verwendung von Daten stabiler Isotope, der Hydrochemie und von Wasserständen bildet die Grundlage für die Konzeption der chemischen Entwicklung des Grundwassers im Pra-Becken. Dafür wurden die Herkunft und die Verdunstungsraten des in die ungesättigte Zone infiltrierenden Wassers bewertet. Darüber hinaus wurden die Chlorid-Massenbilanz und die Wasserspiegelschwankungen betrachtet, um die Grundwasserneubildung für das Einzugsgebiet zu quantifizieren. Indizes wie der Wasserqualitätsindex (WQI), das Natriumadsorptionsverhältnis (SAR), das Wilcox-Diagramm und der Salzgehalt (USSL) wurden in dieser Studie verwendet, um die Qualität der Ressource für die Verwendung als Trinkwasser und zu Bewässerungszwecken zu bestimmen. Aufgrund der Heterogenität der hydrochemischen Daten wurden die statistischen Verfahren der hierarchischen Cluster- und Faktorenanalyse angewandt, um die Daten entsprechend ihrer räumlichen Korrelation zu unterteilen. Ein konzeptionelles hydrogeochemisches Modell wurde entwickelt und anschließend durch Anwendung kombinatorischer inverser und reaktionspfadbasierter geochemischer Modelle validiert, um plausible mineralische Assemblagen zu bestimmen, welche die chemische Zusammensetzung des Grundwassers kontrollieren. Die Wechselwirkungen zwischen Wasser und Gestein bestimmen die Grundwasserqualität im Pra-Becken. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen, dass das Grundwasser eine gute Qualität aufweist und als Trinkwasser und für Bewässerungszwecke genutzt werden kann. Es wurde nachgewiesen, dass ein großes Grundwasserpotenzial vorhanden ist, um den derzeitigen und künftigen Wasserbedarf des gesamten Pra-Beckens zu decken. Als Hauptneubildungsgebiet wurde die nördliche Zone im Gebiet identifiziert, während die südliche Zone das Abflussgebiet ist. Der vorherrschende Einfluss der Verwitterung von Silikatmineralen spielt bei der chemischen Entwicklung des Grundwassers eine zentrale Rolle. Die hier vorgestellte Arbeit gibt grundlegende Einblicke in die Hydrochemie des Pra-Beckens und liefert für das Wassermanagement wichtige Daten für eine fundierte Entscheidungsfindung bei der Planung und Zuweisung von Wasserressourcen für verschiedene Zwecke. Ein neuartiger Ansatz zur inversen Modellierungwurde in dieser Studie eingesetzt, um unterschiedliche Mineralzusammensetzungen zu ermitteln, welche die chemische Entwicklung des Grundwassers im Pra-Becken bestimmen. Diese Modellierungstechnik hat das Potenzial, die Zusammensetzung eines Grundwassers auf der Skala eines Beckens mit großer hydrochemischer Heterogenität zu simulieren, wobei die durchschnittliche Wasserzusammensetzung zur Darstellung der etablierten räumlichen Gruppierungen der Wasserchemie verwendet wird.

Description: Watershed management requires an understanding of key hydrochemical processes. The Pra Basin is one of the five major river basins in Ghana with a population of over 4.2 million people. Currently, water resources management faces challenges due to surface water pollution caused by the unregulated release of untreated household and industrial waste into aquatic ecosystems and illegal mining activities. This has increased the need for groundwater as the most reliable water supply. Our understanding of groundwater recharge mechanisms and chemical evolution in the basin has been inadequate, making effective management difficult. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to gain insight into the processes that determine the hydrogeochemical evolution of groundwater quality in the Pra Basin. The combined use of stable isotope, hydrochemistry, and water level data provides the basis for conceptualizing the chemical evolution of groundwater in the Pra Basin. For this purpose, the origin and evaporation rates of water infiltrating into the unsaturated zone were evaluated. In addition, Chloride Mass Balance (CMB) and Water Table Fluctuations (WTF) were considered to quantify groundwater recharge for the basin. Indices such as water quality index (WQI), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), Wilcox diagram, and salinity (USSL) were used in this study to determine the quality of the resource for use as drinking water and for irrigation purposes. Due to the heterogeneity of the hydrochemical data, the statistical techniques of hierarchical cluster and factor analysis were applied to subdivide the data according to their spatial correlation. A conceptual hydrogeochemical model was developed and subsequently validated by applying combinatorial inverse and reaction pathway-based geochemical models to determine plausible mineral assemblages that control the chemical composition of the groundwater. The interactions between water and rock determine the groundwater quality in the Pra Basin. The results underline that the groundwater is of good quality and can be used for drinking water and irrigation purposes. It was demonstrated that there is a large groundwater potential to meet the entire Pra Basin’s current and future water demands. The main recharge area was identified as the northern zone, while the southern zone is the discharge area. The predominant influence of weathering of silicate minerals plays a key role in the chemical evolution of the groundwater. The work presented here provides fundamental insights into the hydrochemistry of the Pra Basin and provides data important to water managers for informed decision-making in planning and allocating water resources for various purposes. A novel inverse modelling approach was used in this study to identify different mineral compositions that determine the chemical evolution of groundwater in the Pra Basin. This modelling technique has the potential to simulate the composition of groundwater at the basin scale with large hydrochemical heterogeneity, using average water composition to represent established spatial groupings of water chemistry.

Description: This article summarizes the ground-motion characterization (GMC) model component of the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (2022 NZ NSHM). The model development process included establishing a NZ-specific context through the creation of a new ground-motion database, and consideration of alternative ground-motion models (GMMs) that have been historically used in NZ or have been recently developed for global application with or without NZ-specific regionalizations. Explicit attention was given to models employing state-of-the-art approaches in terms of their ability to provide robust predictions when extrapolated beyond the predictor variable scenarios that are well constrained by empirical data alone. We adopted a “hybrid” logic tree that combined both a “weightson- models” approach along with backbone models (i.e., metamodels), the former being the conventional approach to GMC logic tree modeling for NSHM applications using published models, and the latter being increasingly used in research literature and site-specific studies. In this vein, two NZ-specific GMMs were developed employing the backbone model construct. All of the adopted subduction GMMs in the logic tree were further modified from their published versions to include the effects of increased attenuation in the back-arc region; and, all but one model was modified to account for the reduction in ground-motion standard deviations as a result of nonlinear surficial site response. As well as being based on theoretical arguments, these adjustments were implemented as a result of hazard sensitivity analyses using models without these effects, which we consider gave unrealistically high hazard estimates.

Description: Seismicity usually exhibits a non-Poisson spatiotemporal distribution and could undergo nonstationary processes. However, the Poisson assumption is still deeply rooted in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis models, especially when input catalogs must be declustered to obtain a Poisson background rate. In addition, nonstationary behavior and scarce earthquake records in regions of low seismicity can bias hazard estimates that use stationary or spatially precise forecasts. In this work, we implement hazard formulations using forecasts that trade-off spatial precision to account for overdispersion and nonstationarity of seismicity in the form of uniform rate zones (URZs), which describe rate variability using non-Poisson probabilistic distributions of earthquake numbers. The impact of these forecasts in the hazard space is investigated by implementing a negative- binomial formulation in the OpenQuake hazard software suite, which is adopted by the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. For a 10% exceedance probability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in 50 yr, forecasts that only reduce the spatial precision, that is, stationary Poisson URZ models, cause up to a twofold increase in hazard for low-seismicity regions compared to spatially precise forecasts. Furthermore, the inclusion of non-Poisson temporal processes in URZ models increases the expected PGA by up to three times in low-seismicity regions, whereas the effect on high-seismicity is minimal (∼5%). The hazard estimates presented here highlight the relevance, as well as the feasibility, of incorporating analytical formulations of seismicity that go beyond the inadequate stationary Poisson description of seismicity.

Description: The distribution of earthquakes in time and space is seldom stationary, which could hinder a robust statistical analysis, particularly in low-seismicity regions with limited data. This work investigates the performance of stationary Poisson and spatially precise forecasts, such as smoothed seismicity models (SSMs), in terms of the available training data. Catalog bootstrap experiments are conducted to: (1) identify the number of training data necessary for SSMs to perform spatially better than the least-informative Uniform Rate Zone (URZ) models; and (2) describe the rate temporal variability accounting for the overdispersion and nonstationarity of seismicity. Formally, the strict-stationarity assumption used in traditional forecasts is relaxed into local and incremental stationarity (i.e., a catalog is only stationary in the vicinity of a given time point t) along with self-similar behavior described by a power law. The results reveal rate dispersion up to 10 times higher than predicted by Poisson models and highlight the impact of nonstationarity in assuming a constant mean rate within training-forecast intervals. The temporal rate variability is translated into a reduction of spatial precision by means of URZmodels. First, counting processes are devised to capture rate distributions, considering the rate as a random variable. Second, we devise a data-driven method based on geodetic strain rate to spatially delimit the precision of URZs, assuming that strain/stress rate is related to the timescales of earthquake interactions. Finally, rate distributions are inferred from the available data within each URZ. We provide forecasts for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model update,which can exhibit rates up to ten times higher in low-seismicity regions compared with SSMs. This study highlights the need to consider nonstationarity in seismicity models and underscores the importance of appropriate statistical descriptions of rate variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.

Description: National-scale seismic hazard models with large logic trees can be difficult to calculate using traditional seismic hazard software. To calculate the complete 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model—Te Tauira Matapae Pūmate Rū i Aotearoa, including epistemic uncertainty, we have developed a method in which the calculation is broken into two separate stages. This method takes advantage of logic tree structures that comprise multiple, independent logic trees from which complete realizations are formed by combination. In the first stage, we precalculate the independent realizations of the logic trees. In the second stage, we assemble the full ensemble of logic tree realizations by combining components from the first stage. Once all realizations of the full logic tree have been calculated, we can compute aggregate statistics for the model. This method benefits both from the reduction in the amount of computation necessary and its parallelism. In addition to facilitating the computation of a large seismic hazard model, the method described can also be used for sensitivity testing of model components and to speed up experimentation with logic tree structure and weights.

Description: Central America is a seismically active region where six tectonic plates (North America, Caribbean, Cocos, Nazca, Panama, and South America) interact in a subduction zone with transform faults and two triple points. This complex tectonic setting makes the maximum magnitude—Mmax—estimation a challenging task, with the crustal fault earthquakes being the most damaging in the seismic history of Central America. The empirical source scaling relations (ESSR) allow the Mmax of faults to be determined from rupture parameters. In this study, we use a dataset of well-characterized earthquakes in the region, comprising 64 events from 1972 to 2021 with magnitudes between Mw 4.1 and 7.7. The dataset incorporates records of rupture parameters (length, width, area, slip, and magnitude) and information on the faults and aftershocks associated. This database is an important product in itself, and through its use we determine which global relations fit best to our data via a residual analysis. Moreover, based on the best-quality records, we develop scaling relations for Central America (CA-ESSR) for rupture length, width, and area. These new relations were tested and compared with recent earthquakes, and logic trees are proposed to combine the CA-ESSR and the best-fit global relations. Therefore, we estimate the Mmax for 30 faults using the logic tree for rupture length, considering a total rupture of the fault andmultifault scenarios. Our results suggest that in CentralAmerica rupture areas larger than other regions are required to generate the samemagnitudes.We associate this with the shear modulus (μ), which seems to be lower (∼ 30% less) than the global mean values for crustal rocks. Furthermore, considering multifault ruptures, we found several fault systems with potential Mmax ≥Mw 7.0. These findings contribute to a better understanding of regional seismotectonics and to the efficient characterization of fault rupture models for seismic hazards.

Description: In near-Earth space, a large population of high-energy electrons are trapped by Earth’s magnetic field. These energetic electrons are trapped in the regions called Earth’s ring current and radiation belts. They are very dynamic and show a very strong dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. These energetic electrons can be dangerous to satellites in the near-Earth space. Therefore, it is very important to understand the mechanisms which drive the dynamics of these energetic electrons. Wave-particle interaction is one of the most important mechanisms. Among the waves that can be encountered by the energetic electrons when they move around our Earth, whistler mode chorus waves can cause both acceleration and the loss of energetic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts and ring current. Using more than 5 years of wave measurements from NASA’s Van Allen Probe mission, Wang et al (2019) developed chorus wave models which depend on magnetic local time (MLT), Magnetic Latitude (MLat), L-shell, and geomagnetic condition index Kp. To quantify the effect of chorus waves on energetic electrons, we calculated the bounce-averaged quasi-linear diffusion coefficients using the chorus wave model developed by Wang et al (2019) and extended to higher latitudes according to Wang and Shprits (2019). Using these diffusion coefficients, we calculated the lifetime of the electrons with an energy range from 1 keV to 2 MeV. In each MLT, we calculate the lifetime for each energy and L-shell using two different methods according to Shprits et al (2007) and Albert and Shprits (2009). We make the calculated electron lifetime database available here. Please notice that the chorus wave model by Wang et al (2019) is valid when Kp 〈= 6. If the user wants to use this lifetime database for Kp 〉6, please be careful and contact the authors.

Description: Dynamic rupture simulations generate synthetic waveforms that account for nonlinear source and path complexity. Here, we analyze millions of spatially dense waveforms from 3D dynamic rupture simulations in a novel way to illuminate the spectral fingerprints of earthquake physics. We define a Brune-type equivalent near-field corner frequency (f c ) to analyze the spatial variability of ground-motion spectra and unravel their link to source complexity. We first investigate a simple 3D strike-slip setup, including an asper- ity and a barrier, and illustrate basic relations between source properties and f c varia- tions. Next, we analyze 〉 13,000,000 synthetic near-field strong-motion waveforms generated in three high-resolution dynamic rupture simulations of real earthquakes, the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest mainshock, the Mw 6.4 Searles Valley foreshock, and the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake. All scenarios consider 3D fault geometries, topography, off-fault plasticity, viscoelastic attenuation, and 3D velocity structure and resolve frequencies up to 1–2 Hz. Our analysis reveals pronounced and localized patterns of elevated f c , specifically in the vertical components. We validate such f c variability with observed near-fault spectra. Using isochrone analysis, we identify the complex dynamic mechanisms that explain rays of elevated f c and cause unexpectedly impulsive, localized, vertical ground motions. Although the high vertical frequencies are also associated with path effects, rupture directivity, and coalescence of multiple rupture fronts, we show that they are dominantly caused by rake-rotated surface-breaking rupture fronts that decel- erate due to fault heterogeneities or geometric complexity. Our findings highlight the potential of spatially dense ground-motion observations to further our understanding of earthquake physics directly from near-field data. Observed near-field f c variability may inform on directivity, surface rupture, and slip segmentation. Physics-based models can identify “what to look for,” for example, in the potentially vast amount of near-field large array or distributed acoustic sensing data.

Description: Garnet is a prominent mineral in skarn deposits and its rare earth elements (REE) geochemistry is pivotal for understanding skarn mineralization and fluid evolution. In contrast to magmatic and metamorphic garnets, skarn garnets are mainly grossular-andradite in composition. They exhibit variable REE patterns, spanning from notable heavy (H)-REE enrichment to significant light (L)-REE enrichment, accompanied by negative to positive europium (Eu) anomalies. However, the key factors governing REE fractionation in skarn garnets remain uncertain. This study applies the lattice-strain theory (LST) to investigate the influence of crystal chemistry and structure on REE fractionation in garnets from the Lazhushan Fe skarn deposit in eastern China. Our results demonstrate that the garnet-liquid partition coefficient ratios of DLa/DYb significantly increase (up to 5–7 orders of magnitude) with rising andradite content in garnet. This variation underscores the pivotal role of garnet structure in controlling LREE/HREE fractionation. The results further show that partition coefficient ratios of DLa/DSm are strongly dependent on andradite content in garnets, whereas the DGd/DYb ratios only show a weak correlation to the garnet composition. This contrast suggests that fractionation of LREE in garnet is more sensitive to variations of andradite content than HREE. Data compilation of major elements and REE for garnet from the Lazhushan Fe skarn deposit and other skarn deposits worldwide shows that the garnet REE patterns vary from positive through concave to negative shapes with the garnet ranging from grossularitic to andraditic compositions. Such variations in garnet REE patterns are consistent with the results of geochemical modeling based on the LST. This study demonstrates that, through LST equations, the shape of fluid REE patterns can be predicted from garnet REE patterns, and vice versa. Furthermore, the Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu*Grt) in skarn garnet depends mainly on fluid Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu*fluid) and garnet-fluid partition coefficient ratio of D(Eu2+)/D(Eu3+) with the latter being influenced by garnet composition. These findings highlight the critical role of crystal chemistry and structure in garnet REE fractionation, enhancing our ability to utilize garnet REE in tracing the origin and evolution of skarn-forming fluids.

Description: Tsunamigenic earthquakes pose considerable risks, both economically and socially, yet earthquake and tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted separately. Earthquakes associated with unexpected tsunamis, such as the 2018 Mw  7.5 strike-slip Sulawesi earthquake, emphasize the need to study the tsunami potential of active submarine faults in different tectonic settings. Here, we investigate physics-based scenarios combining simulations of 3D earthquake dynamic rupture and seismic wave propagation with tsunami generation and propagation. We present time-dependent modeling of one-way linked and 3D fully coupled earthquakes and tsunamis for the ∼ 100 km long Húsavík–Flatey Fault Zone (HFFZ) in North Iceland. Our analysis shows that the HFFZ has the potential to generate sizable tsunamis. The six dynamic rupture models sourcing our tsunami scenarios vary regarding hypocenter location, spatiotemporal evolution, fault slip, and fault structure complexity but coincide with historical earthquake magnitudes. Earthquake dynamic rupture scenarios on a less segmented fault system, particularly with a hypocenter location in the eastern part of the fault system, have a larger potential for local tsunami generation. Here, dynamically evolving large shallow fault slip (∼ 8 m), near-surface rake rotation (± 20∘), and significant coseismic vertical displacements of the local bathymetry (± 1 m) facilitate strike-slip faulting tsunami generation. We model tsunami crest to trough differences (total wave heights) of up to ∼ 0.9 m near the town Ólafsfjörður. In contrast, none of our scenarios endanger the town of Akureyri, which is shielded by multiple reflections within the narrow Eyjafjörður bay and by Hrísey island. We compare the modeled one-way linked tsunami waveforms with simulation results using a 3D fully coupled approach. We find good agreement in the tsunami arrival times and location of maximum tsunami heights. While seismic waves result in transient motions of the sea surface and affect the ocean response, they do not appear to contribute to tsunami generation. However, complex source effects arise in the fully coupled simulations, such as tsunami dispersion effects and the complex superposition of seismic and acoustic waves within the shallow continental shelf of North Iceland. We find that the vertical velocity amplitudes of near-source acoustic waves are unexpectedly high – larger than those corresponding to the actual tsunami – which may serve as a rapid indicator of surface dynamic rupture. Our results have important implications for understanding the tsunamigenic potential of strike-slip fault systems worldwide and the coseismic acoustic wave excitation during tsunami generation and may help to inform future tsunami early warning systems.

Description: The ocean basins contain numerous volcanic ridges, seamounts and large igneous provinces (LIPs). Numerous studies have focused on the origin of seamount chains and LIPs but much less focus has been applied to understanding the genesis of large volcanic structures formed from a combination or series of volcanic drivers. Here we propose the term Oceanic Mid-plate Superstructures (OMS) to describe independent bathymetric swells or volcanic structures that are constructed through superimposing pulses of volcanism, over long time periods and from multiple sources. These sources can represent periods when the lithosphere drifted over different mantle plumes and/or experienced pulses of volcanism associated with shallow tectonic drivers (e.g. plate flexure; lithospheric extension). Here we focus on the Melanesian Border Plateau (MBP), one example of an OMS that has a complex and enigmatic origin. The MBP is a region of shallow Pacific lithosphere consisting of high volumes of volcanic guyots, ridges and seamounts that resides on the northern edge of the Vitiaz Lineament. Here we reconcile recently published constraints to build a comprehensive volcanic history of the MBP. The MBP was built through four distinct episodes: (1) Volcanism associated with the Louisville hotspot likely generating Robbie Ridge and some Cretaceous seamounts near the MBP. (2) Construction of oceanic islands and seamounts during the Eocene when the lithosphere passed over the Rurutu-Arago hotspot. (3) Reactivation of previous oceanic islands/seamounts and construction of new volcanos in the Miocene when the lithosphere passed over the Samoa hotspot. (4) Miocene to modern volcanism driven by lithospheric deformation and/or westward entrainment of enriched plume mantle due to toroidal mantle flow driven by the rollback of the Pacific plate beneath the Tonga trench. The combination of these processes is responsible for ∼222,000 km2 of intraplate volcanism in the MBP and indicates that this OMS was constructed from multiple volcanic drivers.

Description: We compared the performance of DREAM3D simulations in reproducing the long‐term radiation belt dynamics observed by Van Allen Probes over the entire year of 2017 with various boundary conditions (BCs) and model inputs. Specifically, we investigated the effects of three different outer boundary conditions, two different low‐energy boundary conditions for seed electrons, four different radial diffusion (RD) coefficients (DLL), four hiss wave models, and two chorus wave models from the literature. Using the outer boundary condition driven by GOES data, our benchmark simulation generally well reproduces the observed radiation belt dynamics inside L* = 6, with a better model performance at lower μ than higher μ, where μ is the first adiabatic invariant. By varying the boundary conditions and inputs, we find that: (a) The data‐driven outer boundary condition is critical to the model performance, while adding in the data‐driven seed population doesn't further improve the performance. (b) The model shows comparable performance with DLL from Brautigam and Albert (2000, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999ja900344), Ozeke et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013ja019204), and Liu et al. (2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl067398), while with DLL from Ali et al. (2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ja023002) the model shows less RD compared to data. (c) The model performance is similar with data‐based hiss models, but the results show faster loss is still needed inside the plasmasphere. (d) The model performs similarly with the two different chorus models, but better capturing the electron enhancement at higher μ using the Wang et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ja026183) model due to its stronger wave power, since local heating for higher energy electrons is under‐reproduced in the current model.

Description: Rare metals (Nb, Ta, Y, Zr, Sn, U, W and REE) are economically important and new supplies need to be found. In order to understand Neoproterozoic rare metal granites of the Arabian–Nubian Shield (ANS), six samples from five rare-metal mineralized alkali feldspar granites, syenogranites and granodiorite from the Central and SE Desert of Egypt were studied for zircon U–Pb ages and O-isotopic compositions as well as whole-rock Sr- and Nd- and alkali feldspar Pb-isotopic compositions. These are transitional between I-type and A-type granites, mostly high-K calc-alkaline, peraluminous granites with gullwing-shaped REE patterns and strongly negative Eu anomalies. Four granites gave mantle-like zircon 18OV-SMOW between 4.2 and 5.96‰ and yielded ages of 628–633 Ma. This is about when subduction-related magmatism began to be replaced by collision-related magmatism. Igla Ahmr granites are older, formed at 691.7–678.9 Ma with 18OV-SMOW c. 5.95‰. All have positive initial Nd values (+3.3 to +6.9) typical for mantle and juvenile crust. Pb isotopic compositions are unusually radiogenic compared with unmineralized ANS granitic rocks. The data indicate similar magmatic sources for ANS mineralized and unmineralized granites. Exploration for other rare-metal mineralized granites in the ANS should focus on bodies with similar characteristics

Description: The Tieshajie Cu deposit, located in the northeastern part of the Qin-Hang Metallogenic Belt (QHMB), South China, has long been regarded as a representative Meso-Neoproterozoic volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposit. Here we present a hydrothermal titanite U-Pb age, Re-Os and in-situ S-Cu isotope data for chalcopyrite to constrain the timing and ore genesis of the Tieshajie deposit. Laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) U-Pb dating of titanite from the disseminated Cu ore yielded a weighted mean 206Pb/238U age of 160.1 ± 4.4 Ma. Chalcopyrite from different ore types has low 187Os/188Os (0.85–3.60) and 187Re/188Os (46.1–614.0) ratios, combined with initial 187Os/188Os (0.74–2.00), excluding a mantle source. A Re-Os isochron age (188 ± 30 Ma) for five chalcopyrite samples is consistent with the titanite U-Pb age within errors. Moreover, the variations in Cu isotope compositions (δ65Cu: −1.13 to +0.12 ‰) and δ34S values (+3.8 to +7.7 ‰) of chalcopyrite are inconsistent with those reported from the ancient VMS deposits in previous studies. Therefore, our results are indicative of a Late Jurassic magmatic-hydrothermal origin instead of a VMS origin for the Tieshajie deposit. In combination with previous studies, we propose that the Tieshajie Cu deposit belongs to the distal part of the Mid-Late Jurassic (170–150 Ma) porphyry-skarn Cu mineralization event in the QHMB, likely triggered by the subduction of the Paleo-Pacific plate during the Late Mesozoic. This study also has new insights into the genesis of Cu mineralization in the QHMB and further provides implications for future exploration.

Description: This study conducts mineralogical and chemical investigations on the oldest achondrite, Erg Chech 002 (∼4565 million yr old). This meteorite exhibits a disequilibrium igneous texture characterized by high-Mg-number (atomic Mg/(Mg + Fe2+)) orthopyroxene xenocrysts (Mg number = 60–80) embedded in an andesitic groundmass. Our research reveals that these xenocrysts were early formed crystals, loosely accumulated or scattered in the short-period magma ocean on the parent body. Subsequently, these crystals underwent agitation due to the influx of external materials. The assimilation of these materials enriched the 16O component of the magma ocean and induced a relatively reduced state. Furthermore, this process significantly cooled the magma ocean and inhibited the evaporation of alkali elements, leading to elevated concentrations of Na and K within the meteorite. Our findings suggest that the introduced materials are probably sourced from the reservoirs of CR clan meteorites, indicating extensive transport and mixing of materials within the early solar system.

Description: Low Earth Orbit satellites offer extensive data of the radiation belt region, but utilizing these observations is challenging due to potential contamination and difficulty of intercalibration with spacecraft measurements at Highly Elliptic Orbit that can observe all equatorial pitch-angles. This study introduces a new intercalibration method for satellite measurements of energetic electrons in the radiation belts using a Data assimilation (DA) approach. We demonstrate our technique by intercalibrating the electron flux measurements of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) NOAA-15,-16,-17,-18,-19, and MetOp-02 against Van Allen Probes observations from October 2012 to September 2013. We use a reanalysis of the radiation belts obtained by assimilating Van Allen Probes and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites observations into 3-D Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB-3D) code simulations via a standard Kalman filter. We compare the reanalysis to the POES data set and estimate the flux ratios at each time, location, and energy. From these ratios, we derive energy and L* dependent recalibration coefficients. To validate our results, we analyze on-orbit conjunctions between POES and Van Allen Probes. The conjunction recalibration coefficients and the data-assimilative estimated coefficients show strong agreement, indicating that the differences between POES and Van Allen Probes observations remain within a factor of two. Additionally, the use of DA allows for improved statistics, as the possible comparisons are increased 10-fold. Data-assimilative intercalibration of satellite observations is an efficient approach that enables intercalibration of large data sets using short periods of data.

Description: Earlier experiments have shown that cyclic hydraulic fracturing (CHF) systematically reduces the monotonic breakdown pressure (MBP). However, cyclic injection also causes a significantly longer injection time to failure as compared to the monotonic injection tests and complex fracture propagation that is hard to predict. In this study, a different injection scheme employing rock fatigue behavior, named creep injection, was tested on granite cylinders. The creep injection creates continuous pressurization under a constant borehole pressure (CBP) with a pre-defined maximum value below the MBP. Three different pressure ratios (CBP/MBP) of 0.85, 0.9 and 0.95 were tested. We found that both the CHF and hydraulic fracturing with creep injection can reduce the breakdown pressure by ca. 15 ~ 20% without confining pressure. Two mechanisms could explain the reduction: the influence of fluid infiltration within the theory of linear poroelasticity and stress corrosion within the subcritical crack growth theory. The lifetime of the granite cores subjected to creep injection is comparable with previous CHF experiments employing the same pressure ratio. In addition, the lifetime increases logarithmically when the ratio of CBP/MBP is decreased. This relationship has a high regression coefficient of R2 = 0.97, and the lifetime can be well predicted using a stress corrosion index of 70. On the contrary, CHF shows a significantly larger variance in the lifetime with a regression coefficient of R2 = 0.19 and, therefore, is hard to predict. Our results also point out that the injection scheme can modify hydraulic fracture patterns, in terms of fracture aperture, branching, and fracture propagation.

Description: Qongjiagang pegmatite-type Li deposit in Tibet is the first discovered pegmatite-type deposit with economic value in the Himalayan region, which confirms that the Himalayan region has the potential to become a strategic base of rare metal in China, and provide indications to find pegmatite-type Li deposit in the Himalayan region. In this study, we use SEM to identify the type, frequency and occurrence (relationship with cracks) of mineral inclusions in the three main accessory minerals, monazite, apatite and zircon from granite and pegmatite of Qongjiagang Li deposit, combining with the EPMA analysis of feldspar inclusions in apatite to comprehensively trace the property and evolution of the melts and fluids. Our study indicates that: (1) the main mineral inclusions in monazite, apatite and zircon from Qongjiagang Li deposit include silicate, oxide, phosphates and a small amount of sulfide, not only the REE-rich monazite and apatite filling or intersecting cracks are formed by hydrothermal alteration, but also the uraninite and thorianite isolated from cracks occur in the self-irradiation region of zircon are related to fluids; (2) the appearances of columbite and pyrochlore inclusions in the apatite from tourmaline-muscovite granite demonstrate that the initial melt is enriched in Nb and Ta, the amount and type of rare metal mineral inclusions can be used as an indicator for rare metal mineralization in highly evolved granite and pegmatite; (3) the plagioclase inclusions with high and a large range of An values in apatite from spodumene pegmatite represent the capture of less-differentiated melt and continuously fractional crystallization. Our results indicate that the types and compositions of mineral inclusions in accessory minerals can be good tracers for the characteristics and evolution of melts and fluids in the highly evolved granite-pegmatite system

Description: This publication provides the codes produced for the article "Temporally dynamic carbon dioxide and methane emission factors for rewetted peatlands. Nature Communications Earth and Environment" by Aram Kalhori, Christian Wille, Pia Gottschalk, Zhan Li, Josh Hashemi, Karl Kemper, and Torsten Sachs (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01226-9). In the article, the authors estimate the cumulative GHG emissions of a rewetted peatland in Germany using the long-term ecosystem flux measurements. They observe a source-to-sink transition of annual carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and decreasing trend of methane (CH4) emissions. This software is written in R and MATLAB. Running the codes ([R files and .m files](Code)) and loading the data files ([CSV files and .mat files](Data)) requires the pre-installation of [R and RStudio] (https://posit.co/downloads/) and ([MATLAB]. The RStudio 2022.07.2 Build 576 version has been used for the R scripts. The land cover classification work was performed in QGIS, v.3.16.11-Hannover. Data were analyzed in both MATLAB and R and plots created with R (R Core Development Team 2020) in RStudio®.

Description: The data provided here is an exemplary dataset for the flux site Zarnekow from one year (2018). The complete dataset that is needed to run the codes for all the years can be obtained from the European Fluxes Database Cluster under site ID DE-Zrk (Sachs et al., 2016) or provided upon request. This repository is intended to provide the necessary MATLAB and R code to reproduce the results by Kalhori et al. (2024). The data are provided as zip folder containing (1) a csv file with associated definition of variables and units (file: 2023-004_Kalhori-et-al_README_2018_units.txt), (2) a shapefile (file: 2023-004_Kalhori-et-al_2018_LAiV_DOP.shp) and (3) a Geotiff (file: 2023-004_Kalhori-et-al_2018_LAiV_DOP.tiff).

Description: The West Siberian Seaway connected the Tethys to the Arctic Ocean in the Paleogene and played an important role for Eurasian-Arctic biogeography, ocean circulation, and climate. However, the paleogeography and geological mechanisms enabling the seaway are not well constrained, which complicates linking the seaway evolution to paleoenvironmental changes. Here, we investigate the paleogeography of the Peri-Tethys realms for the Cenozoic time (66–0 Ma), including the West Siberian Seaway, and quantify the influence of mantle convection and corresponding dynamic topography. We start by generating continuous digital elevation models for Eurasia, Arabia, and Northern Africa, by digitizing regional paleogeographic maps and additional geological information and incorporate them in a global paleogeography model with nominal million-year resolution. Then we compute time-dependent dynamic topography for the same time interval and find a clear correlation between changes in dynamic topography and the paleogeographic evolution of Central Eurasia and the West Siberian Seaway. Our results suggest that mantle convection played a greater role in Eurasian paleogeography than previously recognized. Mantle flow may have influenced oceanic connections between the Arctic and global ocean providing a link between deep mantle convection, surface evolution, and environmental changes. Our reconstructions also indicate that the Arctic Ocean may have been isolated from the global ocean in the Eocene, even if the West Siberian Seaway was open, as the Peri-Tethys – Tethys connection was limited, and the Greenland-Scotland Ridge was a landbridge.

Description: Hydrothermal alteration is crucial in the formation of many ore deposits, with potassium (K) mobilization and cycling being prevalent. Potassic metasomatism of wall rocks generally forms K-bearing minerals, such as hydrothermal feldspar and mica. However, determining the source and redistribution of K (and other elements transported by the same fluid) in hydrothermal systems is challenging. K isotopes offer a potential solution to this problem. This study presents new K isotope data from two K-rich alteration assemblages — K-feldspar and sericite-quartz-pyrite — in the Jiaodong gold province of China. The data covers a compositional range from unaltered granites to syn-magmatic potassic alteration (formation of K-feldspar) and post-magmatic syn-mineralization phyllic alteration (formation of sericite). Potassic alteration in granite correlates with significant K addition, whereas phyllic alteration of earlier phases of magmatic and hydrothermal K-feldspar resulted in K loss. K-feldspar altered granites display similar δ41K values (–0.55 to –0.42 ‰ for whole-rocks and –0.56 to –0.48 ‰ for K-feldspar separates) as unaltered granite (–0.52 to –0.47 ‰). The narrow δ41K range suggests that magmatic fluid exsolution and magmatic-hydrothermal alteration have a minor effect on δ41K of the altered rock. Phyllic alteration of K-feldspar altered precursor rock leads to K loss and elevated δ41K values ranging from –0.36 to –0.19 ‰ for whole-rocks and –0.34 to –0.17 ‰ for sericite mineral separates. As sericite preferentially incorporates 41K, sericite will have higher δ41K values than the precursor K-feldspar, whereas the fluids will have lower δ41K values. Our study demonstrates that hydrothermal alteration may affect the K isotope composition of altered rocks in several ways, contingent on the nature of the involved phases, making K isotopes a promising tool for studying hydrothermal alteration and associated mineralization.

Description: Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan-Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO2 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process-based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO2 sink with lower net CO2 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m−2 y−1) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m−2 y−1). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH4 m−2 y−1). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year-round CO2 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non-growing season emissions and disturbance effects.

Description: Seafloor massive sulfides are modern analogues to ancient volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits, which are particularly enriched in volatile and precious metals (e.g., Te, Au, Ag, Cu, Bi, Se) in subduction-related settings. However, the sources of metals are still poorly constrained, and it remains elusive, whether magmatic volatile influx controls their distribution in submarine hydrothermal systems on the plate tectonic-scale. Here, we demonstrate, for the first time, that Te, As, and Sb contents as well as related Te/As and Te/Sb ratios vary systematically with the δ34S composition of pyrite and native S, as reported by high-resolution coupled SIMS δ34S and trace element LA-ICP-MS micro-analysis. The better correlation of element ratios (Te/As, Te/Sb) opposed to trace element contents (e.g., Te) with δ34S in pyrite demonstrates that element ratios provide a more robust record of magmatic volatile influx than their absolute contents. On this basis, we define a quantitative threshold of high Te/As (〉0.004) and Te/Sb (〉0.6) ratios in pyrite that are indicative of magmatic volatile influx to submarine subduction-related hydrothermal systems. Two-component fluid mixing simulations further revealed that 〈5 % of magmatic volatile influx drastically changes the Te/As (and Te/Sb) ratio of the modelled fluid, but only slightly changes its δ34S composition. This suggests that Te/As and Te/Sb ratios are more sensitive to a magmatic volatile influx into seawater-dominated hydrothermal systems than δ34S signatures if the magmatic volatile influx was low. Beyond this, our results demonstrate that magma-derived fluid mixing with seawater only has a negligible effect on the magmatic volatile record of Te/As and Te/Sb, while the S isotope system is prone for seawater overprinting leading to commonly ambiguous source signatures. Thus, Te/As and Te/Sb systematics in pyrite provide a robust proxy to evaluate the contribution of magmatic volatiles to submarine hydrothermal systems from the grain- to plate tectonic-scale.

Description: Geomechanics has a marked impact on the safe and sustainable use of the subsurface. This Special Publication contains contributions detailing the latest efforts in present-day in-situ stress characterization, prediction and modelling from the borehole to plate-tectonic scale. A particular emphasis is on the uncertainties that are often associated with geomechanics.

Description: Desert environments constitute one of the largest and yet most fragile ecosystems on Earth. Under the absence of regular precipitation, microorganisms are the main ecological component mediating nutrient fluxes by using soil components, like minerals and salts, and atmospheric gases as a source for energy and water. While most of the previous studies on microbial ecology of desert environments have focused on surface environments, little is known about microbial life in deeper sediment layers. Our study is extending the limited knowledge about microbial communities within the deeper subsurface of the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert. By employing intracellular DNA extraction and subsequent 16S rRNA sequencing of samples collected from a soil pit in the Yungay region of the Atacama Desert, we unveiled a potentially viable microbial subsurface community residing at depths down to 4.20 m. In the upper 80 cm of the playa sediments, microbial communities were dominated by Firmicutes taxa showing a depth-related decrease in biomass correlating with increasing amounts of soluble salts. High salt concentrations are possibly causing microbial colonization to cease in the lower part of the playa sediments between 80 and 200 cm depth. In the underlying alluvial fan deposits, microbial communities reemerge, possibly due to gypsum providing an alternative water source. The discovery of this deeper subsurface community is reshaping our understanding of desert soils, emphasizing the need to consider subsurface environments in future explorations of arid ecosystems.

Description: The current crustal stress field is of key importance to understand geodynamic processes and to assess stability aspects during subsurface usage. To provide a 3-D continuous description of the stress state, linear elastic forward geomechanical-numerical models are used. These models solve the equilibrium of forces between gravitational volume forces and surfaces forces im- posed mainly by plate tectonics. The latter are responsible for the horizontal stress anisotropy and impose the inverse problem to estimate horizontal displacement boundary conditions that provide a fit best to horizontal stress magnitude data within the model volume. Ho wever , horizontal stress magnitude data have high uncertainties and they are sparse, clustered and not necessaril y representati ve for a larger rock v olume. Even w hen Bay esian statistics are incor - porated and additional stress information such as borehole failure observations or formation integrity test are used to further constrain the solution space, this approach may result in a low accuracy of the model results, that is the result is not correct. Here, we present an alternative approach that removes the dependence of the solution space based on stress magnitude data to avoid potential low accuracy . Initially , a solution space that contains all stress states that are physically reasonable is defined. Stress magnitude data and the additional stress information are then used in a Bayesian framework to e v aluate which solutions are more likely than others. We first show and validate our approach with a generic truth model and then apply it to a case study of the Molasse foreland basin of the Alps in Southern Germany. The results show that the model’s ability to predict a reliable stress state is increasing while the number of likely solutions may also increase, and that outlier of stress magnitude data can be identified. This alternative approach results in a substantial increase in computational speed as we perform most of the calculations anal yticall y.

Description: In this paper, we anticipate geospatial population distributions to quantify the future number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru. We capitalize upon existing gridded population time series data sets, which are provided on an open-source basis globally, and implement machine learning models tailored for time series analysis, i.e., based on long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, for prediction of future time steps. Specifically, we harvest WorldPop population data and teach LSTM and convolutional LSTM models equipped with both unidirectional and bidirectional learning mechanisms, which are derived from different feature sets, i.e., driving factors. To gain insights regarding the competitive performance of LSTM-based models in this application context, we also implement multilinear regression and random forest models for comparison. The results clearly underline the value of the LSTM-based models for forecasting gridded population data; the most accurate prediction obtained with an LSTM equipped with a bidirectional learning scheme features a root-mean-squared error of 3.63 people per 100 × 100 m grid cell while maintaining an excellent model fit (R2= 0.995). We deploy this model for anticipation of population along a 3-year interval until the year 2035. Especially in areas of high peak ground acceleration of 207–210 cm s−2, the population is anticipated to experience growth of almost 30 % over the forecasted time span, which simultaneously corresponds to 70 % of the predicted additional inhabitants of Lima. The population in the tsunami inundation area is anticipated to grow by 61 % until 2035, which is substantially more than the average growth of 35 % for the city. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.

Description: Projections of precipitation extremes over land are crucial for socioeconomic risk assessments, yet model discrepancies limit their application. Here we use a pattern-filtering technique to identify low-frequency changes in individual members of a multimodel ensemble to assess discrepancies across models in the projected pattern and magnitude of change. Specifically, we apply low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to the intensity and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over land in 21 CMIP-6 models. LFCA brings modest but statistically significant improvements in the agreement between models in the spatial pattern of projected change, particularly in scenarios with weak greenhouse forcing. Moreover, we show that LFCA facilitates a robust identification of the rates at which increasing precipitation extremes scale with global temperature change within individual ensemble members. While these rates approximately match expectations from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation on average across models, individual models exhibit considerable and significant differences. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that these differences contribute to uncertainty in the magnitude of projected change at least as much as differences in the climate sensitivity. Last, we compare these scaling rates with those identified from observational products, demonstrating that virtually all climate models significantly underestimate the rates at which increases in precipitation extremes have scaled with global temperatures historically. Constraining projections with observations therefore amplifies the projected intensification of precipitation extremes as well as reducing the relative error of their distribution.

Description: Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) moves atmospheric carbon to geological or land-based sinks. In a first-best setting, the optimal use of CDR is achieved by a removal subsidy that equals the optimal carbon tax and marginal damages. We derive second-best policy rules for CDR subsidies and carbon taxes when no global carbon price exists but a national government implements a unilateral climate policy. We find that the optimal carbon tax differs from an optimal CDR subsidy because of carbon leakage and a balance of resource trade effect. First, the optimal removal subsidy tends to be larger than the carbon tax because of lower supply-side leakage on fossil resource markets. Second, net carbon exporters exacerbate this wedge to increase producer surplus of their carbon resource producers, implying even larger removal subsidies. Third, net carbon importers may set their removal subsidy even below their carbon tax when marginal environmental damages are small, to appropriate producer surplus from carbon exporters.

Description: This study investigates the adjustment of large-scale localized buoyancy anomalies in mid-latitude regions and the nonlinear evolution of associated condensation patterns in both adiabatic and moist-convective environments. This investigation is carried out utilizing the two-layer idealized moist-convective thermal rotating shallow water (mcTRSW) model. Our investigation reveals that the presence of a circular positive potential temperature anomaly in the lower layer initiates an anticyclonic high-pressure rotation, accompanied by a negative buoyancy anomaly in the upper layer, resulting in an anisotropic northeast–southwest tilted circulation of heat flux. The evolution of eddy heat fluxes, such as poleward heat flux, energy, and meridional elongation of the buoyancy field, heavily depends on the perturbation's strength, size, and vertical structure. The heatwave initiates atmospheric instability, leading to precipitation systems such as rain bands and asymmetric latent heat release due to moist convection in a diabatic environment. This creates a comma cloud pattern in the upper troposphere and a comma-shaped buoyancy anomaly in the lower layer, accompanied by the emission of inertia gravity waves. The southern and eastern sectors of the buoyancy anomaly show an upward flux, generating a stronger cross-equatorial flow and inertia-gravity waves in a southward and eastward direction. Furthermore, the simulations reveal a similar asymmetric pattern of total condensed liquid water content distribution, accompanied by the intensification of moist convection as rain bands. This intensification is more pronounced in barotropic structures than in baroclinic configurations with stagnant upper layers. This study highlights the importance of considering moist convection and its effects on atmospheric and oceanic flows in mid-latitude regions, as well as the role of buoyancy anomalies in generating heatwaves and precipitation patterns.

Description: Here, we present BASD-CMIP6-PE, a high-resolution (1d, 10 km) climate dataset for Peru and Ecuador based on the bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections of 10 GCMs. This dataset includes both historical simulations (1850–2014) and future projections (2015–2100) for precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The BASD-CMIP6-PE climate data were generated using the trend-preserving Bias Adjustment and Statistical Downscaling (BASD) method. The BASD performance was evaluated using observational data and through hydrological modeling across Peruvian and Ecuadorian river basins in the historical period. Results demonstrated that BASD significantly reduced biases between CMIP6-GCM simulations and observational data, enhancing long-term statistical representations, including mean and extreme values, and seasonal patterns. Furthermore, the hydrological evaluation highlighted the appropriateness of adjusted GCM simulations for simulating streamflow, including mean, low, and high flows. These findings underscore the reliability of BASD-CMIP6-PE in assessing regional climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, and hydrological extremes.

Description: The article evidences to what extent rights-based climate litigation is applied as a strategy to enhance the recognition and protection of climate-induced migrants. Adopting a deduc- tive approach and desk review, the study, illustrates how climate-induced migration has been addressed by International Human Rights Law, with some attention also paid to the growing application of the right to a safe climate and climate justice. The study highlights the duties of both States and private actors in tackling the emerging climate crisis under the human rights agenda. Relevant responsibilities are framed in particular within the scope of rights-based litiga- tion dealing with the topic. We present an analysis of litigation linked to climate-induced migration that was filed before distinct international, regional, and national jurisdictions and, in doing so, propose a chronology of cases—structured in three generations—of how population movements as a result of climate change have been discussed by judicial means. The first generation relates to cases that consider the issue from the perspective of protection—in both national, regional, and international jurisdictions. The second generation emerges within general climate litigation claims, involving commitments linked to the climate agenda. In addition to raising (forced) pop- ulation movements as one of the expected impacts of climate change, such cases frequently call upon a rights-based approach. The third generation encompasses rights-based cases cen- tred on climate-induced migrants per se. The strengths and limitations of rights-based litigation to respond to the topic are finally highlighted: we conclude that litigation remains a blunt but not unpromising tool to respond to climate-induced migration. Generic references to the risk of (forced) population movements largely prevail; nevertheless, strategic rights-based litigation can facilitate the visibility of climate-induced migrants to the international community, fostering the development of legal solutions in the longer term.

Description: Introduction: Behavioural interventions could improve caregivers’ food hygiene practices in low-resource settings. So far, evidence is limited to small-scale and short-term studies, and few have evaluated the long-term maintenance of promoted behaviours. We evaluated the effect of a relatively large-scale behaviour change intervention on medium and long-term maintenance of household food hygiene practices in Bangladesh. - Methods: We analyse a secondary outcome of the Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) cluster-randomised trial and its sub-study Food Hygiene to reduce Environmental Enteric Dysfunction (FHEED), conducted in Habiganj district, Sylhet division, Bangladesh. The FAARM trial used a 1:1 parallel arm design and included 2705 women in 96 settlements: 48 intervention and 48 control. Women in the intervention settlements received training in homestead gardening, poultry rearing and nutrition over three years (2015–2018), complemented by an eight-month (mid-2017 to early-2018) behaviour change component on food hygiene using motivational drivers. Nested within the FAARM trial, the FHEED sub-study evaluated several outcomes along the hygiene pathway. For this article, we evaluated household food hygiene behaviours by analysing structured observation data collected in two cross-sectional surveys, four and 16 months after the food hygiene promotion ended, from two independent subsamples of FAARM women with children aged 6–18 months. We assessed intervention effects on food hygiene practices using mixed-effects logistic regression, accounting for clustering. In exploratory analyses, we further assessed behaviour patterns – how often critical food hygiene behaviours were performed individually, in combination and consistently across events. - Results: Based on the analysis of 524 complementary feeding and 800 food preparation events in households from 571 participant women, we found that intervention households practised better food hygiene than controls four months post-intervention, with somewhat smaller differences after 16 months. Overall, the intervention positively affected food hygiene, particularly around child feeding: using soap for handwashing (odds ratio 5·8, 95% CI 2·2–15·2), cleaning feeding utensils (3·8, 1·9–7·7), and cooking fresh/reheating food (1·8, 1·1–2·8). However, the simultaneous practice of several behaviours was rare, occurring in only 10% of feeding events (intervention: 15%; control: 4%), and the practice of safe food hygiene behaviours was inconsistent between events. - Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a motivational behaviour change intervention encouraged caregivers to maintain certain safe food hygiene practices in a rural setting. However, substantial physical changes in the household environment are likely needed to make these behaviours habitual.

Description: Increasing renewable sources in the energy mix is essential to mitigate climate change, not least in countries where the energy demand is likely to rise over the coming decades to reduce or even skip durations of time where fossils dominate. For Africa, solar photovoltaic (PV) and inland wind energy, combined with hydropower, provide significant and untapped potentials, whereas trends and robustness measures need further investigation. This study aims to gain insight into distributed trends in solar PV and wind energy potentials over Africa. This study employs relevant metrics, including relative change, model agreement, robustness, bias, and absolute levels for every available model combination and two climate scenarios, with energy planning purposes in mind. The study finds that regional climate models were the primary control of spatio-temporal patterns over their driving global climate model. Solar PV potentials show more coherence between models, a lower bias and general high potentials in most African regions than wind potentials. Favourable locations for inland wind energy include mainly the regions of greater Sahara and the Horn region. For wind and solar potentials combined, scattered locations within Sahara stand out as the most favourable across scenarios and periods. The analysis of minimum energy potentials shows stable conditions despite low potentials in certain regions. The results demonstrate a potential for solar and wind power in most of the African regions and highlight why solar and wind power or synergies of energy mix should be considered for local energy planning and storage solutions.

Description: This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

Description: Potential climate tipping points pose a growing risk for societies, and policy is calling for improved anticipation of them. Satellite remote sensing can play a unique role in identifying and anticipating tipping phenomena across scales. Where satellite records are too short for temporal early warning of tipping points, complementary spatial indicators can leverage the exceptional spatial-temporal coverage of remotely sensed data to detect changing resilience of vulnerable systems. Combining Earth observation with Earth system models can improve process-based understanding of tipping points, their interactions, and potential tipping cascades. Such fine-resolution sensing can support climate tipping point risk management across scales.

Description: Passenger transport has significant externalities, including carbon emissions and air pollution. Public health research has identified additional social gains from active travel, due to the health benefits of physical exercise. Per mile, these benefits greatly exceed the external costs from car use. We introduce active travel into an optimal fuel taxation model and characterize analytically the second-best optimal fuel tax. We find that accounting for active travel benefits increases the optimal fuel tax by 44% in the USA and 38% in the UK. Fuel taxes should be implemented jointly with other policies aimed at increasing the uptake of active travel.

Description: Forestation efforts are accelerating across the globe in the fight against global climate change, in order to restore biodiversity, and to improve local livelihoods. Yet, so far the non-local effects of forestation on rainfall have largely remained a blind spot. Here we build upon emerging work to propose that targeted rainfall enhancement may also be considered in the prioritization of forestation. We show that the tools to achieve this are rapidly becoming available, but we also identify drawbacks and discuss which further developments are still needed to realize robust assessments of the rainfall effects of forestation in the face of climate change. Forestation programs may then mitigate not only global climate change itself, but also its adverse effects in the form of drying.

Description: Interest rates are central determinants of saving and investment decisions. Costly financial intermediation distorts these price signals by creating a spread between deposit and loan rates. This study investigates how bank spreads affect climate policy in its ambition to redirect capital. We identify various channels through which interest spreads affect carbon emissions in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Interest rate spreads increase abatement costs due to the higher relative price for capital-intensive carbon-free energy but they also tend to reduce emissions due to lower overall economic growth. For the global average interest rate spread of 5.1pp, global warming increases by 0.2°C compared to the frictionless economy. For a given temperature target to be achieved, interest rate spreads necessitate substantially higher carbon taxes. When spreads arise from imperfect competition in the intermediation sector, the associated welfare costs can be reduced by clean energy subsidies or even eliminated by economy-wide investment subsidies.

Description: Aerosol effects on cloud properties are notoriously difficult to disentangle from variations driven by meteorological factors. Here, a machine learning model is trained on reanalysis data and satellite retrievals to predict cloud microphysical properties, as a way to illustrate the relative importance of meteorology and aerosol, respectively, on cloud properties. It is found that cloud droplet effective radius can be predicted with some skill from only meteorological information, including estimated air mass origin and cloud top height. For ten geographical regions the mean coefficient of determination is 0.3813 and normalised root-mean square error 25%. The machine learning model thereby performs better than a reference linear regression model, and a model predicting the climatological mean. A gradient boosting regression performs on par with a neural network regression model. Adding aerosol information as input to the model improves its skill somewhat, but the difference is small and the direction of the influence of changing aerosol burden on cloud droplet effective radius is not consistent across regions, and thereby also not always consistent with what is expected from cloud brightening.

Description: Madagascar has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the country’s agricultural sector. This study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of two potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision-makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Madagascar. The impact assessment consists of several steps, including climate projections based on three emissions scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3- RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario), modelling and comparison of future suitability and yield of three widely used crops (coffee, vanilla, pepper) and an assessment of yield changes in peanut production under future climate conditions. Further, the study outlines gendered challenges and support requirements in national adaptation planning. The simulation results show that Robusta coffee is less sensitive to heat compared to Arabica coffee. The suitable area for Robusta coffee remains almost stable under changing climate conditions, while the suitability of Arabica coffee is projected decrease by 7 % on a national level. Simulation results indicate a slight increase in suitability for vanilla production, particularly in the main growing region Sava, but also in Atsimo Atsinanana, thus safeguarding an important source of income for local farmers and guaranteeing the sustainability of Madagascar´s most valuable export product. Furthermore, climate change is projected to have a rather low impact on the agro-climatic suitability of pepper production. When averaged across Madagascar, the decrease in suitability is less than 1 %, however, there are some noteworthy differences across regions and scenarios. The results for the process-based peanut modelling show that rising temperature and reduced rainfall amounts are likely to decrease peanut yields across Madagascar. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 is projected to offset these negative impacts. The study furthermore evaluated the efficiency of two adaptation strategies, namely the use of locally adapted crop varieties and flexible planting dates. The simulation results suggest that the traditional cultivar Kanety is more suited in future climate change scenarios since yields for Kanety are generally higher than those of the improved variety Fleur 11. Interestingly, opting for flexible planting dates as opposed to a fixed planting date does not result in enhanced yields. This result underlines the importance of regional crop calendars to determine optimal sowing dates. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate in Madagascar.

Description: The psychology of the individual is continuously changing in nature, which has a significant influence on the evolutionary dynamics of populations. To study the influence of the continuously changing psychology of individuals on the behavior of populations, in this article, we consider the game transitions of individuals in evolutionary processes to capture the changing psychology of individuals in reality, where the game that individuals will play shifts as time progresses and is related to the transition rates between different games. Besides, the individual’s reputation is taken into account and utilized to choose a suitable neighbor for the strategy updating of the individual. Within this model, we investigate the statistical number of individuals staying in different game states and the expected number fits well with our theoretical results. Furthermore, we explore the impact of transition rates between different game states, payoff parameters, the reputation mechanism, and different time scales of strategy updates on cooperative behavior, and our findings demonstrate that both the transition rates and reputation mechanism have a remarkable influence on the evolution of cooperation. Additionally, we examine the relationship between network size and cooperation frequency, providing valuable insights into the robustness of the model.

Description: We demonstrate an indirect, rather than direct, role of quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves in a summer weather extreme. We find that there was an interplay between a persistent, amplified large-scale atmospheric circulation state and soil moisture feedbacks as a precursor for the June 2021 Pacific Northwest “Heat Dome” event. An extended resonant planetary wave configuration prior to the event created an antecedent soil moisture deficit that amplified lower atmospheric warming through strong nonlinear soil moisture feedbacks, favoring this unprecedented heat event.

Description: In recent years, several global events have severely disrupted economies and social structures, undermining confidence in the resilience of modern societies. Examples include the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought unprecedented health challenges and economic disruptions, and the emergence of geopolitical tensions and conflicts that have further strained international relations and economic stability. While empirical evidence on the dynamics and drivers of past societal collapse is mounting, a process-based understanding of these dynamics is still in its infancy. Here, we aim to identify and illustrate the underlying drivers of such societal instability or even collapse. The inspiration for this work is Joseph Tainter’s theory of the “collapse of complex societies”, which postulates that the complexity of societies increases as they solve problems, leading to diminishing returns on complexity investments and ultimately to collapse. In this work, we abstract this theory into a low-dimensional and stylized model of two classes of networked agents, hereafter referred to as “laborers” and “administrators”. We numerically model the dynamics of societal complexity, measured as the fraction of “administrators”, which was assumed to affect the productivity of connected energy-producing “laborers”. We show that collapse becomes increasingly likely as the complexity of the model society continuously increases in response to external stresses that emulate Tainter’s abstract notion of problems that societies must solve. We also provide an analytical approximation of the system’s dominant dynamics, which matches well with the numerical experiments, and use it to study the influence on network link density, social mobility and productivity. Our work advances the understanding of social-ecological collapse and illustrates its potentially direct link to an ever-increasing societal complexity in response to external shocks or stresses via a self-reinforcing feedback.

Description: Understanding wildfire dynamics in space and over time is critical for wildfire control and management. In this study, fire data from European Space Agency (ESA) MODIS fire product (ESA/CCI/FireCCI/5_1) with ≥ 70% confidence level was used to characterise spatial and temporal variation in fire frequency in Zimbabwe between 2001 and 2020. Results showed that burned area increased by 16% from 3,689 km2 in 2001 to 6,130 km2 in 2011 and decreased in subsequent years reaching its lowest in 2020 (1,161km2). Over, the 20-year period, an average of 40,086.56 km2 of land was burned annually across the country. In addition, results of the regression analysis based on Generalised Linear Model illustrated that soil moisture, wind speed and temperature significantly explained variation in burned area. Moreover, the four-year lagged annual rainfall was positively related with burned area suggesting that some parts in the country (southern and western) are characterised by limited herbaceous production thereby increasing the time required for the accumulation of sufficient fuel load. The study identified major fire hotspots in Zimbabwe through the integration of remotely sensed fire data within a spatially analytical framework. This can provide useful insights into fire evolution which can be used to guide wildfire control and management in fire prone ecosystems. Moreover, resource allocation for fire management and mitigation can be optimised through targeting areas most affected by wildfires especially during the dry season where wildfire activity is at its peak.

Description: Shifting cultivation will face increasing pressure from erosion-related land degradation caused by rising cultivation intensities and climate change. However, empirical knowledge about future trends of soil erosion and thus land degradation in shifting cultivation systems is limited. We use the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to first explore the combined effects of climate change and agricultural intensification on soil erosion of uphill shifting cultivation systems, using six surveyed soil profiles. We assess interactions between climate change, the length of the fallow period, and slope inclinations for a near (2021–2050) and far (2071–2100) future period, considering three climate scenarios, five climate models, fallow periods between one and 20 years, and slopes between five and 70% steepness. Our results show a significant nonlinear relationship between global warming and erosion. Until the end of the century, erosion is estimated to increase by a factor of 1.2, 2.2, and 3.1 under the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, compared with the historical baseline (1985–2014). Combined effects from climate change, fallow length, and slope inclination indicate that steep slopes require longer fallow periods, with an increase of slope from 5% to 10% multiplying the required fallow length by a mean factor of 2.5, and that fallow periods will need to be extended under higher global warming if erosion rates are to remain at current levels. These findings are novel as they link climate change effects on shifting cultivation systems to different slopes and fallow regimes, making an important contribution to understanding future erosion dynamics of traditional smallholder production systems in mountainous terrain, with relevant implications for policies on agricultural intensification.

Description: In recent decades, numerous paleoclimate records and results of model simulations provided strong support to the astronomical theory of Quaternary glacial cycles formulated in its modern form by Milutin Milankovitch. At the same time, new findings revealed that the classical Milankovitch theory is unable to explain a number of important facts, such as the change of the dominant periodicity of glacial cycles from 41 kyr to 100 kyr about one million years ago. This transition was also accompanied by an increase in the amplitude and asymmetry of the glacial cycles. Here, based on the results of a hierarchy of models and data analysis, a framework of the extended (generalized) version of the Milankovitch theory is presented. To illustrate the main elements of this theory, a simple conceptual model of glacial cycles was developed using the results of an Earth system model CLIMBER-2. This conceptual model explicitly assumes the multistability of the climate-cryosphere system and the instability of the “supercritical” ice sheets. Using this model, it is shown that Quaternary glacial cycles can be successfully reproduced as the strongly-nonlinear response of the Earth system to the orbital forcing, where 100 kyr cyclicity originates from the phase-locking of the precession and obliquity-forced glacial cycles to the corresponding eccentricity cycle. The eccentricity influences glacial cycles solely through its amplitude modulation of the precession component of orbital forcing, while the long time scale of the late Quaternary glacial cycles is determined by the time required for ice sheets to reach their critical size. The postulates used to construct this conceptual model were justified using analysis of relevant physical and biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. In particular, the role of climate-ice sheet-carbon cycle feedback in shaping and globalization of glacial cycles is discussed. The reasons for the instability of the large northern ice sheets and the mechanisms of the Earth system escape from the “glacial trap” via a set of strongly nonlinear processes are presented. It is also shown that the transition from the 41 kyr to the 100 kyr world about one million years ago can be explained by a gradual increase in the critical size of ice sheets, which in turn is related to the gradual removal of terrestrial sediments from the northern continents. The implications of this nonlinear paradigm for understanding Quaternary climate dynamics and the remaining knowledge gaps are finally discussed.

Description: Forage supply and soil organic carbon storage are two important ecosystem functions of permanent grasslands, which are determined by climatic conditions, management and functional diversity. However, functional diversity is not independent of climate and management, and it is important to understand the role of functional diversity and these dependencies for ecosystem functions of permanent grasslands. Especially since functional diversity may play a key role in mediating impacts of changing conditions. Large-scale ecosystem models are used to assess ecosystem functions within a consistent framework for multiple climate and management scenarios. However, large-scale models of permanent grasslands rarely consider functional diversity. We implemented a representation of functional diversity based on the CSR theory and the global spectrum of plant form and function into the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model forming LPJmL-CSR. Using a Bayesian calibration method, we parameterised new plant functional types and used these to assess forage supply, soil organic carbon storage and community composition of three permanent grassland sites. These are a temperate grassland, a hot and a cold steppe for which we simulated several management scenarios with different defoliation intensities and resource limitations. LPJmL-CSR captured the grassland dynamics well under observed conditions and showed improved results for forage supply and/or SOC compared to LPJmL 5.3 at three grassland sites. Furthermore, LPJmL-CSR was able to reproduce the trade-offs associated with the global spectrum of plant form and function and similar strategies emerged independent of the site specific conditions (e.g. the C- and R-PFTs were more resource exploitative than S-PFTs). Under different resource limitations, we observed a shift of the community composition. At the hot steppe for example, irrigation led to a more balanced community composition with similar C-, S- and R-PFT shares of above-ground biomass. Our results show, that LPJmL-CSR allows for explicit analysis of the adaptation of grassland vegetation to changing conditions while explicitly considering functional diversity. The implemented mechanisms and trade-offs are universally applicable paving the way for large-scale application. Applying LPJmL-CSR for different climate change and functional diversity scenarios may generate a range of future grassland productivity.

Description: The Anthropocene signifies the start of a no-analogue trajectory of the Earth system that is fundamentally different from the Holocene. This new trajectory is characterized by rising risks of triggering irreversible and unmanageable shifts in Earth system functioning. We urgently need a new global approach to safeguard critical Earth system regulating functions more effectively and comprehensively. The global commons framework is the closest example of an existing approach with the aim of governing biophysical systems on Earth upon which the world collectively depends. Derived during stable Holocene conditions, the global commons framework must now evolve in the light of new Anthropocene dynamics. This requires a fundamental shift from a focus only on governing shared resources beyond national jurisdiction, to one that secures critical functions of the Earth system irrespective of national boundaries. We propose a new framework—the planetary commons—which differs from the global commons framework by including not only globally shared geographic regions but also critical biophysical systems that regulate the resilience and state, and therefore livability, on Earth. The new planetary commons should articulate and create comprehensive stewardship obligations through Earth system governance aimed at restoring and strengthening planetary resilience and justice.

Description: Despite the cost reductions of green hydrogen, it is uncertain when cost parity with blue hydrogen will be achieved. Beyond technology costs, electricity and natural gas prices, hydrogen’s competitiveness will be increasingly determined by carbon costs or regulation associated with its life-cycle emissions. Theoretically and numerically, we demonstrate that higher residual emissions of blue hydrogen can close its competitive window much earlier than the cost parity of green hydrogen suggests. In regions where natural gas prices remain substantially higher (∼40 EUR/MWh) than before the energy crisis, such a window is narrow or has already closed. While blue hydrogen could potentially bridge the scarcity of green hydrogen, uncertainties about the beginning and end of blue hydrogen competitiveness may hinder investments. In contrast, in regions where natural gas prices drop to ≤15 EUR/MWh, blue hydrogen can remain competitive until at least 2040, contingent upon achieving rigorous CO2 capture (〉90%) and negligible methane leakage rates (〈1%).

Description: Background: Rice predominate diets are common in Bangladesh, leading to widespread nutritional deficiencies. Objective: The Food and Agricultural Approaches to Reducing Malnutrition (FAARM) cluster-randomized controlled trial in rural Sylhet, Bangladesh, evaluated a homestead food production intervention implemented 2015-2018 through Helen Keller International, aiming to improve child growth (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT025-05711). We estimate the impact on women's and children's dietary diversity, a secondary trial objective. Methods: We calculated dietary diversity for women and children using standard measures from data collected throughout the trial (2015-2020). Our analysis included 28,282 observations of 2,701 women (out of 2,705 enrolled) and 17,445 observations of their 3,257 children (aged 6-37 months) in 96 settlements, 48 of which received the intervention. We estimated the intervention's impact on dietary diversity using multilevel regression, controlling for seasonality, baseline dietary diversity, and clustering by settlement and repeated measures. Results: Dietary diversity scores and the proportion of women and children classified as consuming minimally diverse diets varied greatly by season, peaking in May/June with 5.3 food groups for women (out of ten) and 3.8 food groups for children (out of seven). Over the entire intervention and post78 intervention period, women's and children's odds of consuming a minimally diverse diet nearly doubled (OR 1.8, p〈0.001, for both). This benefit was barely present in the first year of the intervention, increased in the second, and peaked in the last intervention year (OR 2.4 for women, OR 2.5 for children, both p〈0.001) before settling at around double the odds in post-intervention years (p〈0.001). Dietary improvement was observed throughout the 82 year for both women and children and driven through incremental increases in nearly all food groups. Conclusions: The nutrition-sensitive agriculture intervention successfully increased dietary diversity in women and children, and these impacts persisted after the project closed, including during the COVID-19 lockdown period.

Description: This article investigates the group consensus via pinning control for continuous-time first-order and second-order multi-agent systems (MASs) with reference states. For the group consensus of first-order MASs, the dependence between the agent's state and the control input is considered. For second-order MASs, group consensus control without the velocity information of agents is considered. Instead, the virtual velocity estimation controller is designed. Meanwhile, for the designed control protocols, not only under fixed topology, but also under switching topology are considered. It is demonstrated that group consensus could be obtained under the proposed control protocols by using graph theory and stability theory. Finally, a series of numerical examples are provided to verify the control performance of the propounded control protocols.

Description: Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.

Description: The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the Earth's tipping elements and may lose stability under ongoing climate change. Recently a decrease in tropical rainforest resilience has been identified globally from remotely sensed vegetation data. However, the underlying theory assumes a Gaussian distribution of forest disturbances, which is different from most observed forest stressors such as fires, deforestation, or windthrow. Those stressors often occur in power-law-like distributions and can be approximated by α-stable Lévy noise. Here, we show that classical critical slowing down indicators to measure changes in forest resilience are robust under such power-law disturbances. To assess the robustness of critical slowing down indicators, we simulate pulse-like perturbations in an adapted and conceptual model of a tropical rainforest. We find few missed early warnings and few false alarms are achievable simultaneously if the following steps are carried out carefully: First, the model must be known to resolve the timescales of the perturbation. Second, perturbations need to be filtered according to their absolute temporal autocorrelation. Third, critical slowing down has to be assessed using the non-parametric Kendall-τ slope. These prerequisites allow for an increase in the sensitivity of early warning signals. Hence, our findings imply improved reliability of the interpretation of empirically estimated rainforest resilience through critical slowing down indicators.

Description: The inconsistent pattern of precipitation, a shift in the seasonality of river flows, and the early onset of snow and glacier melt in recent decades across river basins of High Mountain Asia (HMA) has compelled us to further investigate future variations in sources of runoff under projected climate change scenarios. This will help in determining the timing and magnitude of runoff components and this will help in management of future water resources. The current study employed the University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBC WM) to estimate the spatiotemporal variations in simulated runoff components (i.e. snowmelt, glacier melt, rainfall-runoff, and baseflow) and their relative contribution to total runoff of Gilgit River regarding the baseline period (1981–2010) in near (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) under low (SSP1), medium (SSP2) and high (SSP5) emission scenarios. A significant increase in the magnitude of mean annual temperature and precipitation is expected in the near future (2021–2050) than far future (2071–2100) under most SSPs. Moreover, high-altitude stations of the Gilgit River basin are expected to experience more warming in the near and far future than low altitudes under all SSPs. On average, regarding the baseline period, the simulated runoff is projected to increase in the near (27%, 30%, and 33%) and far future (30%, 53%, and 91%) under SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5, respectively. Moreover, an early onset of snow/glacier melting is predicted in the far future due to an increase in summer air temperature and a decline in winter (DJF) precipitation. Besides, the rise in high altitude temperature is expected to cause the melting of snow/glaciers even above 6000 m elevation in the far future.

Description: In this report, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change recommends a series of actions to put the EU on track towards climate neutrality. Based on an assessment of more than 80 indicators, the Advisory Board found that more efforts are needed across all sectors to achieve the EU climate objectives from 2030 to 2050, and particularly in buildings, transport, agriculture and forestry. The Advisory Board acknowledges the potential of the Fit for 55 policy package to speed up EU’s decarbonisation, but warns that additional measures are imperative if the EU is to achieve its climate neutrality objective by 2050 at the latest. With this in mind, the Advisory Board outlines 13 key recommendations for a more effective implementation and design of the EU climate policy framework. This will require action in the coming years, both to effectively implement recently agreed legislation and to start preparations for the post-2030 climate policy framework.

Description: Deep, rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to limit future global temperature increases to 1·5°C above pre-industrial levels, but current progress is inadequate to achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and to reduce future risks from climate change. Many actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions can also deliver near-term health co-benefits, for example from reduced air pollution, consumption of healthy diets, and increased physical activity. High-quality evidence on the type and magnitude of co-benefits that can be realised and improved knowledge of how to promote the implementation of such actions can support progress towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The Lancet Pathfinder Commission was established to collate and assess the evidence on the near-term health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation, including both modelling studies and evaluated implemented actions. The Commission's aim is to assess the potential and achieved magnitude of the benefits for health and climate of different mitigation actions and, where possible, the factors facilitating or impeding implementation.

Description: The HERA high-resolution pan-European hydrological reanalysis (1950-2020) dataset is the result of a joint effort between the JRC and PIK to produce a long term hydrological reanalysis with downscaled and bias-corrected climate reanalysis (ERA5-land) and dynamic socioeconomic inputs. It includes maps of climate variables (evaporation, evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature), dynamic socioeconomic inputs (land use, water demand, reservoir maps) required for hydrological modelling with LISFLOOD and river discharge with European extent at 1 arc minute (~1.5 km) grid resolution and 6-hourly time step. The dataset builds on recent development within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) associated to the EFAS v5.0 reanalysis (http://data.europa.eu/89h/76b4b9de-a5c6-4344-8d88-c4bed7752ce3), notably the LISFLOOD static and parameters maps for Europe (http://data.europa.eu/89h/f572c443-7466-4adf-87aa-c0847a169f23) and the EMO (European Meteorological Observations) dataset (http://data.europa.eu/89h/0bd84be4-cec8-4180-97a6-8b3adaac4d26). HERA also benefits from major improvements to the open-source hydrological model LISFLOOD and a new model calibration. Furthermore, for ungauged catchments, a parameter regionalization was performed transferring parameter sets from donor catchments based on spatial and climatological proximity to ensure the best possible simulation of river flows for all catchments in the European domain. Along with improved resolution and modelling performances, the length of the modelled period (71 years) and the inclusion of dynamic socioeconomic conditions enables the analysis of hydrological dynamics related to extremes, human influences, and climate change at a continental scale while keeping local relevance. Detailed technical information on the dataset can be found in the associated scientific article (under review).

Description: This study examines how the expansion of mobile phone networks affects rural development in Mongolia. The database is a detailed household panel survey with four waves implemented in western Mongolia, spanning the 2012-2021 period, which we combine with data on mobile phone towers. Our identification strategy exploits the uneven roll-out of mobile phone networks across rural areas over time. Using a two-way fixed effects approach, we show that network expansion strongly and significantly increases total household income of pastoralist households. The effect is driven by increased income from agriculture, particularly by higher producer prices for animal byproducts, improved access to transfer income, and increased household mobility. The expansion of mobile phone networks decreases income diversification among pastoralists. Instead, households specialize in agriculture. While findings suggest that investments in telecommunication infrastructure can help rural households to sustain a livelihood in the agricultural sector, the specialization in agriculture may increase households’ vulnerability to climate change.

Description: With ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the Greenland ice sheet approaches critical thresholds of inevitable, long-term mass loss. Future technologies might be able to efficiently remove CO2 from the atmosphere and thereby cool down our planet. We explore whether and to what extent a realization of this concept could lead to a regrowth of the Greenland ice sheet once it has partly melted. Using the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, emission pulses between 0 and 4000 GtC are released into the atmosphere, and 1 kyr, 2 kyr, and 5 kyr, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is reduced back to its pre-industrial value. We find that independent of a specific trajectory, once the southern part of the Greenland ice sheet has partly melted with a total mass loss of more than 0.4 m sea level equivalent, regrowth is inhibited. Uncertainties preclude determination of precise thresholds, but model results indicate that cumulative industrial-era emissions approaching 1000 to 1500 GtC and beyond increasingly risk irreversible mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. Once this threshold is passed, artificial atmospheric carbon removal would need to be utilised within the next centuries at massive scale. Beyond that, artificial atmospheric carbon removal has limited abilities to avoid long-term mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. In conclusion, keeping cumulative anthropogenic emissions below 1000 to 1500 GtC is the only safe way to avoid irreversible mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet.

Description: Traditionally, power grids have relied on synchronous generators, large rotating masses, for energy supply and stability. Currently, renewable energy sources, connected via programmable machines called inverters, are beginning to take the lead. Understanding the changes of grid dynamics brought by these new actors is crucial for a successful energy transition. Modern power grids, with components like solar cells, wind parks and batteries, present a challenge in ensuring stability. To address this complexity, the authors introduce a universal model, offering a surprisingly simple yet robust representation of the entire grid. This model enables the description of systems with different agents through a rather simple system of differential equations. Using analytical tools from various fields, such as dynamical systems, networks, and control theory, it is expected to enable universal statements about the stability of large, interconnected power systems. As a demonstration, a control law is developed to stabilize the power grid in extreme conditions, ensuring a stable energy supply even as power grids become more complex.