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  • ddc:551  (87)
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  • 1
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    Detecting Cold Pool Family Trees in Convection Resolving Simulations (2024)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Recent observations and modeling increasingly reveal the key role of cold pools in organizing the convective cloud field. Several methods for detecting cold pools in simulations exist, but are usually based on buoyancy fields and fall short of reliably identifying the active gust front. The current cold pool (CP) detection and tracking algorithm (CoolDeTA), aims to identify cold pools and follow them in time, thereby distinguishing their active gust fronts and the “offspring” rain cells generated nearby. To accomplish these tasks, CoolDeTA utilizes a combination of thermodynamic and dynamical variables and examines the spatial and temporal relationships between cold pools and rain events. We demonstrate that CoolDeTA can reconstruct CP family trees. Using CoolDeTA we can contrast radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) and diurnal cycle CP dynamics, as well as cases with vertical wind shear and without. We show that the results obtained are consistent with a conceptual model where CP triggering of children rain cells follows a simple birth rate, proportional to a CP's gust front length. The proportionality factor depends on the ambient atmospheric stability and is lower for RCE, in line with marginal stability as traditionally ascribed to the moist adiabat. In the diurnal case, where ambient stability is lower, the birth rate thus becomes substantially higher, in line with periodic insolation forcing—resulting in essentially run‐away mesoscale excitations generated by a single parent rain cell and its CP.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Cold pools are cooled air masses below thunderstorm clouds, produced when rain evaporates underneath such clouds. Cold pools are important, as they produce strong gusts and have been associated with clumping of rain cells, whereby heavy rainfall over relatively small areas could be generated—with implications for flooding. The current work describes a method that helps identify such cold pools in computer simulation data. In contrast to earlier methods, we here show that the interaction between a CP and its surroundings can be reconstructed by the method. We show that this identification works under a range of contexts, such as when horizontal wind is applied in the simulations or when the surface temperature is not constant—as might often be the case over a land surface. The identification reveals interesting dynamical effects, such as that in some cases, cold pools can kick‐start a form of chain reaction, by which “rain cell children” of it give rise to additional cold pools that again produce children, and so forth. The dynamics revealed is in line with expectations of widespread, so‐called mesoscale convective systems over land, whereas over an ocean surface the dynamics is much less explosive.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Our CoolDeTA algorithm reliably detects and tracks cold pools and their causal chains〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We propose a simple conceptual model which reproduces the cascade‐like mesoscale cold pool dynamics identified by CoolDeTA〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉CoolDeTA opens for new studies into the dynamics of convective self‐organization through cold pools〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Villum Fonden http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100008398
    Description: European Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781
    Description: Novo Nordisk Foundation Interdisciplinary Synergy Program
    Description: Scientific Steering Committee
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6513224
    Description: https://github.com/Shakiro7/coldPool-detection-and-tracking
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10115957
    Description: https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.453
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; cold pools ; detection ; tracking ; cloud resolving simulation ; convective organization
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Changes in Atmospheric Dynamics Over Dansgaard‐Oeschger Climate Oscillations Around 40 ka and Their Impact on Europe (2024)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Dansgaard‐Oeschger (D‐O) climate variability during the last glaciation was first evidenced in ice cores and marine sediments, and is also recorded in various terrestrial paleoclimate archives in Europe. The relative synchronicity across Greenland, the North Atlantic and Europe implies a tight and fast coupling between those regions, most probably effectuated by an atmospheric transmission mechanism. In this study, we investigated the atmospheric changes during Greenland interstadial (GI) and stadial (GS) phases based on regional climate model simulations using two specific periods, GI‐10 and GS‐9 both around 40 ka, as boundary conditions. Our simulations accurately capture the changes in temperature and precipitation as reconstructed by the available proxy data. Moreover, the simulations depict an intensified and southward shifted eddy‐driven jet during the stadial period. Ultimately, this affects the near‐surface circulation toward more southwesterly and cyclonic flow in western Europe during the stadial period, explaining much of the seasonal climate variability recorded by the proxy data, including oxygen isotopes, at the considered proxy sites.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The climate during the last ice age varied between colder and warmer periods on timescales ranging from hundreds to thousands of years. This variability was first detected in Greenland ice cores and marine sediment cores of the North Atlantic, as well as in continental geological records in Europe. The variation between the colder and warmer periods occur mostly simultaneously in Greenland and in Europe, which is why the atmosphere is assumed to have an important role in transferring the climate signals. We simulated two different periods of the last ice age, one colder and one warmer around 40,000 years ago, using a regional climate model. The aim was to study how the climate and atmospheric circulation changed during these two periods. We find the eddy‐driven jet over the North Atlantic intensified and shifted southward during the colder period. The jet influences the near‐surface atmospheric circulation and leads to more southwesterly and cyclonic flow in western Europe. Oxygen isotope variations observed in western European paleoclimate records may be partly explained by different, more southern moisture sources on top of changes in seasonal temperatures.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Simulated temperatures agree with proxy data; precipitation is biased but GI‐10 versus GS‐9 differences are well captured〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The stadial winter jet stream is intensified and shifted southward, consistent with dominant southwesterly/cyclonic flow in western Europe〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Oxygen isotope signal changes at western European proxy sites may be explained not only by temperature but also by varying moisture sources〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: NRDIO
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5065/1dfh-6p97
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Dansgaard‐Oeschger cycle ; regional atmospheric dynamics ; regional climate modeling ; continental paleoclimate proxy ; Europe
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Based on Boron Isotopes Versus Simulations of the Global Carbon Cycle During the Plio‐Pleistocene (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-13
    Description: Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) beyond ice core records have been reconstructed from δ〈sup〉11〈/sup〉B derived from planktic foraminifera found in equatorial sediment cores. Here, I applied a carbon cycle model over the Plio‐Pleistocene to evaluate the assumptions leading to these numbers. During glacials times, simulated atmospheric pCO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 was unequilibrated with pCO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 in the equatorial surface ocean by up to 35 ppm while the δ〈sup〉11〈/sup〉B‐based approaches assume unchanged (quasi)equilibrium between both. In the Pliocene, δ〈sup〉11〈/sup〉B‐based estimates of surface ocean pH are lower in the Pacific than in the Atlantic resulting in higher calculated pCO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉. This offset in pH between ocean basins is not supported by models. To calculate pCO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 in surface waters out of the δ〈sup〉11〈/sup〉B‐based pH some assumptions on either total alkalinity or dissolved inorganic carbon are necessary. However, the assumed values of these under‐constrained variables were according to my results partly inconsistent with chemically possible combinations within the marine carbonate system. The model results show glacial/interglacial variability in total alkalinity of the order of 100 μmol/kg, which is rarely applied to proxy reconstructions. Simulated atmospheric pCO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 is tightly (r〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 〉 0.9) related to equatorial surface‐ocean pH, which can be used for consistency checks. Long‐term trends in volcanic CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 outgassing and the strength of the continental weathering fluxes are still unconstrained, allowing for a wide range of possible atmospheric pCO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 across the Plio‐Pleistocene. Nevertheless, this carbon cycle analysis suggests that reported atmospheric pCO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 above 500 ppm in the Pliocene might, for various reasons, need to be revised to smaller numbers.
    Description: Key Points: Simulated equatorial surface ocean 𝑝CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 is near‐equilibrium with atmosphere during interglacials but enriched (≤35 ppm) during glacials. Models suggest similar equatorial surface 𝑝H in Pacific and in Atlantic in high CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 worlds while Pliocene reconstructions show offsets. Carbon cycle model analysis suggests that reported CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 values above 500 ppm in the Pliocene might need revisions to smaller numbers.
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; carbon cycle ; modeling ; CO2 ; boron isotopes ; pH ; Plio‐Pleistocene
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Impact of Diurnal Warm Layers on Atmospheric Convection (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-05
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉This manuscript presents a study of oceanic diurnal warm layers (DWLs) in kilometer‐scale global coupled simulations and their impact on atmospheric convection in the tropics. With the implementation of thin vertical levels in the ocean, DWLs are directly resolved, and sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations of up to several Kelvin appear in regions with low wind and high solar radiation. The increase of SST during the day causes an abrupt afternoon increase of atmospheric moisture due to enhanced latent heat flux (LHF), followed by an increase in cloud cover (CC) and cloud liquid water (CLW). However, although the diurnal SST amplitude is even exaggerated in comparison to reanalysis, this effect only lasts for 5–6 hr and leads to an absolute difference of 1% for CC and 0.01 kg m〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉 for CLW. This can be explained by the fact that the low wind over the SST anomalies dampens their potential effect on the LHF and hence clouds. All in all, the impact of DWLs on convective CC is found to be negligible in the tropical mean.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The diurnal fluctuations of sea surface temperature (SST) have been extensively studied for the last decades, but the assessment of the importance of this phenomenon for atmospheric convection on the global scale has come within reach only very recently, thanks to the development of simulations with a horizontal resolution of O(1 km). In this manuscript we show that we can indeed observe an impact of SST fluctuations on moisture in the atmosphere. However, the impact on the amount of clouds in the tropics is found to be short‐lived and its magnitude negligible on average.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉diurnal warm layers (DWLs) increase atmospheric moisture〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The increase of cloud cover (CC) following the formation of a DWL is immediate and only lasts for several hours〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The magnitude of the CC increase is small and has no discernible influence on the global mean〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://gotm.net/
    Description: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000C-1447-E
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; diurnal warm layers (DWLs) ; atmospheric moisture ; cloud cover ; convection
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Transboundary Rainfall Estimation Using Commercial Microwave Links (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-05
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Unlike actual rainfall, the spatial extent of rainfall maps is often determined by administrative and political boundaries. Similarly, data from commercial microwave links (CMLs) is usually acquired on a national basis and exchange among countries is limited. Up to now, this has prohibited the generation of transboundary CML‐based rainfall maps despite the great extension of networks across the world. We present CML based transboundary rainfall maps for the first time, using independent CML data sets from Germany and the Czech Republic. We show that straightforward algorithms used for quality control strongly reduce anomalies in the results. We find that, after quality control, CML‐based rainfall maps can be generated via joint and consistent processing, and that these maps allow to seamlessly visualize rainfall events traversing the German‐Czech border. This demonstrates that quality control represents a crucial step for large‐scale (e.g., continental) CML‐based rainfall estimation.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Rainfall maps are usually based on gauge observations on the ground or radar. They are crucial for predicting or reconstructing flooding events. Commercial microwave links are special kinds of rainfall sensors. Their actual purpose is the signal propagation within a cellular network. However, since the signal is attenuated when it rains, they can also be exploited for rainfall estimation. To estimate rainfall from the observed attenuation requires careful data processing. Algorithms for that are usually adjusted to national data sets with their specific characteristics. In this study, we use, for the first time, two independent data sets of commercial microwave links (from Germany and the Czech Republic) with the aim of generating transboundary rainfall maps. As the data sets vary in many respects, several algorithms need to be adjusted and extended to allow processing them consistently. We show that it is possible to create meaningful rainfall maps of rain events that traverse the border between Germany and the Czech Republic. This can be considered a major step toward seamless rainfall maps on even larger, that is, continental scale.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Transboundary rainfall maps based on independent networks of commercial microwave links (CMLs) are generated for the first time〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉German and Czech data sets of CMLs differ significantly with respect to network characteristics〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Quality control is important for heterogeneous data of CMLs〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: German Research Foundation
    Description: Czech Science Foundation
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4810169
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7973736
    Description: https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/CDC
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; transboundary rainfall maps ; commercial microwave links ; quantitative precipitation estimation ; data quality control
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Missing Rainfall Extremes in Commercial Microwave Link Data Due To Complete Loss of Signal (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-05
    Description: An important aspect of rainfall estimation is to accurately capture extreme events. Commercial microwave links (CMLs) can complement weather radar and rain gauge data by estimating path‐averaged rainfall intensities near ground. Our aim with this paper was to investigate attenuation induced complete loss of signal (blackout) in the CML data. This effect can occur during heavy rain events and leads to missing extreme values. We analyzed 3 years of attenuation data from 4,000 CMLs in Germany and compared it to a weather radar derived attenuation climatology covering 20 years. We observed that the average CML experiences 8.5 times more blackouts than we would have expected from the radar derived climatology. Blackouts did occur more often for longer CMLs (e.g., 〉10 km) despite their increased dynamic range. Therefore, both the hydrometeorological community and network providers can consider our analysis to develop mitigation measures.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Commercial microwave links (CMLs) are used to transmit information between towers of cellphone networks. If there is rainfall along the transmission path, the signal level is attenuated. By comparing the transmitted and received signal levels, the average rainfall intensity along the path can be estimated. If the attenuation is too strong, no signal is received, no information can be transmitted and no rainfall estimate is available. This is unfavorable both for network stability and rainfall estimation. In this study, we investigated the frequency of such blackouts in Germany. How many blackouts per year are observed in a 3 year CML data set covering around 4,000 link paths and how many are expected from 20 years of weather radar data? We observed that the average CML experiences 8.5 times more blackouts than we would have expected from the radar derived climatology. Blackouts did occur more often for long CMLs, which was an unexpected finding. While only one percent of the annual rainfall amount is missed during blackouts, the probability that a blackout occurs was very high for high rain rates. Both, the hydrometeorological community and network providers can consider our analysis to develop mitigation measures.
    Description: Key Points: Complete loss of commercial microwave link (CML) signals during heavy rain leads to missing rainfall extremes. Magnitude of observed blackouts exceeds climatologically expected values. Unexpectedly, longer CMLs experience more blackouts.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009133
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7245440
    Description: https://github.com/pycomlink/pycomlink/blob/12fc302539851b19f7656cf7e2438c0ddbaa48bf/notebooks/Blackout%20gap%20detection%20examples.ipynb
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6337557
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD/RADKLIM_YW_V2017.002
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; commercial microwave links ; rainfall ; opportunistic sensing ; weather radar ; rainfall extremes ; precipitation
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Impact of Cyclonic Wind Anomalies Caused by Massive Winter Sea Ice Retreat in the Barents Sea on Atlantic Water Transport Toward the Arctic: A Model Study (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-05
    Description: The Arctic is warming much faster than the global average. This is known as Arctic Amplification and is caused by feedbacks in the local climate system. In this study, we explore a previously proposed hypothesis that an associated wind feedback in the Barents Sea could play an important role by increasing the warm water inflow into the Barents Sea. We find that the strong recent decrease in Barents Sea winter sea ice cover causes enhanced ocean‐atmosphere heat flux and a local air temperature increase, thus a reduction in sea level pressure and a local cyclonic wind anomaly with eastward winds in the Barents Sea Opening. By investigating various reanalysis products and performing high‐resolution perturbation experiments with the ocean and sea ice model FESOM2.1, we studied the impact of cyclonic atmospheric circulation changes on the warm Atlantic Water import into the Arctic via the Barents Sea and Fram Strait. We found that the observed wind changes do not significantly affect the warm water transport into the Barents Sea, which rejects the wind‐feedback hypothesis. At the same time, the cyclonic wind anomalies in the Barents Sea increase the amount of Atlantic Water recirculating westwards in Fram Strait by a downslope shift of the West Spitsbergen Current, and thus reduce Atlantic Water reaching the Arctic basin via Fram Strait. The resulting warm‐water anomaly in the Greenland Sea Gyre drives a local anticyclonic circulation anomaly.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The Barents Sea has been experiencing a rapid decrease in its winter sea ice extent during the last 30 years. The loss of sea ice creates new areas where, in winter, the relatively warm ocean loses heat to the cold atmosphere. As warm air rises, the warming reduces the sea level air pressure, changing the atmospheric circulation to develop a local anticlockwise wind system centered over the northern Barents Sea. The associated eastward winds in the Barents Sea Opening and southeastward winds in Fram Strait affect how warm water from the North Atlantic moves toward the Arctic. There has been a long debate on whether this wind anomaly can increase the warm Atlantic Water transport into the Barents Sea and thus cause a positive feedback mechanism for further reducing the sea ice through melting. We find that the observed atmospheric circulation changes have no significant impact on the Barents Sea warm water inflow and thus reject the wind feedback as a strong player in contributing to Arctic Amplification. However, strong anomalous southeastward winds in Fram Strait and the northern Nordic Seas cause a southward shift of the warm Atlantic Water recirculation and reduce its flow toward the Arctic.
    Description: Key Points: A hypothesis that a wind feedback contributes to Arctic Amplification is rejected by performing dedicated wind perturbation simulations. Winter sea ice retreat in the northern Barents Sea causes anomalous cyclonic winds by locally enhancing ocean heat loss. Anomalous cyclonic winds result in less Atlantic Water transport through Fram Strait.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: North‐German Supercomputing Alliance
    Description: https://github.com/FESOM/fesom2
    Description: https://doi.org/10.7265/N5K072F8
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5065/D6HH6H41
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5065/D6WH2N0S
    Description: https://github.com/FESOM/pyfesom2
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7458143
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; Barents Sea ; Arctic Amplification ; feedback ; Atlantic water ; modeling ; Fram Strait
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Insights Into NOx and HONO Chemistry in the Tropical Marine Boundary Layer at Cape Verde During the MarParCloud Campaign (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-15
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Chemical processing of reactive nitrogen species, especially of NO〈sub〉〈italic〉x〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 (= NO + NO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) and nitrous acid (HONO), determines the photochemical ozone production and oxidation capacity in the troposphere. However, sources of HONO and NO〈sub〉〈italic〉x〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 in the remote marine atmosphere are still poorly understood. In this work, the multiphase chemistry mechanism CAPRAM in the model framework SPACCIM was used to study HONO formation at Cape Verde (CVAO) in October 2017, adopted with the input of current parameterizations for various HONO sources. Three simulations were performed that adequately reproduced ambient HONO levels and its diurnal pattern. The model performance for NO〈sub〉〈italic〉x〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 and O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 improves significantly when considering dust‐surface‐photocatalytic conversions of reactive nitrogen compounds with high correlation coefficients up to 0.93, 0.56, and 0.89 for NO, NO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉, and O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉, respectively. Photocatalytic conversion of the adsorbed HNO〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 on dust is modeled to be the predominant contributor for daytime HONO at CVAO, that is, accounting for about 62% of the chemical formation rate at noontime. In contrast, the ocean‐surface‐mediated conversion of NO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 to HONO and other discussed pathways are less important. The average OH levels at midday (9:00–16:00) modeled for cluster trajectory 1, 2, and 3 are 5.2, 5.1, and 5.2 × 10〈sup〉6〈/sup〉 molecules cm〈sup〉−3〈/sup〉, respectively. Main OH formation is driven by O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 photolysis with a contribution of 74.6% to the total source rate, while HONO photolysis is negligible (∼1.8%). In summary, this study highlights the key role of dust aerosols for HONO formation and NO〈sub〉〈italic〉x〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 cycling at CVAO and possibly in other dust‐affected regions, urgently calling for further investigations using field and model studies.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Chemical processing of NO〈sub〉〈italic〉x〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 (= NO + NO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) and nitrous acid (HONO) is important for the tropospheric O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 budget and oxidation capacity. However, the sources of HONO and cycling of NO〈sub〉〈italic〉x〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 in the remote marine atmosphere are still poorly explored. A detailed multiphase chemistry model simulation showed a better performance of HONO, NO〈sub〉〈italic〉x〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 and O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 when considering dust‐surface‐photocatalytic conversions of reactive nitrogen compounds, especially the photocatalytic conversion of the adsorbed HNO〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 on dust. The simulations demonstrated that OH formation is mainly driven by the O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 photolysis, while HONO photolysis is a negligible OH radical source due to its low concentration levels at Cape Verde. The study highlights the key role of dust aerosols for HONO and NO〈sub〉〈italic〉x〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 chemistry in the remote marine boundary layer.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The sources of HONO and NO〈sub〉〈italic〉x〈/italic〉〈/sub〉 at Cape Verde are well modeled with CAPRAM〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Photocatalytic conversion of adsorbed HNO〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 on dust is the predominant contributor for daytime HONO〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Photolysis of O〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 is the prevailing source of OH radical at Cape Verde, while HONO photolysis is a negligible OH radical source〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Leibniz Association SAW
    Description: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
    Description: National Key Research and Development Program of China http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100012166
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8070265
    Description: http://mcm.york.ac.uk/
    Description: https://capram.tropos.de/
    Description: https://ebas.nilu.no/
    Description: https://www.ready.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT_traj.php
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; HONO ; NOx ; CAPRAM ; heterogenous chemistry ; mineral dust ; OH radical ; marine boundary layer
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Revealing the Extent of Submarine Permafrost and Gas Hydrates in the Canadian Arctic Beaufort Sea Using Seismic Reflection Indicators (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-12
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The Canadian Arctic Southern Beaufort Sea is characterized by prominent relict submarine permafrost and gas hydrate occurrences formed by subaerial exposure during extensive glaciations in Pliocene and Pleistocene. Submarine permafrost is still responding to the thermal change as a consequence of the marine transgression that followed the last glaciation. Submarine permafrost is still underexplored and is currently the focus of several research projects as its degradation releases greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. In this study, seismic reflection indicators are used to investigate the presence of submarine permafrost and gas hydrates on the outer continental shelf where the base of permafrost is expected to cross‐cut geological layers. To address the challenges of marine seismic data collected in shallow water environments, we utilize a representative synthetic model to assess the data processing and the detection of submarine permafrost and gas hydrate by seismic data. The synthetic model allows us to minimize the misinterpretation of acquisition and processing artifacts. In the field data, we identify features along with characteristics arising from the top and base of submarine permafrost and the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. This work shows the distribution of the present submarine permafrost along the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea region and confirms its extension to the outer continental shelf. It supports the general shape suggested by previous works and previously published numerical models.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Submarine permafrost, ground beneath the seafloor that perennially remains below 0°C, is present on the continental shelf of the Canadian Beaufort Sea. During the Late Pleistocene (∼1 Million years ago), the continental shelf was subaerially exposed to the cold Arctic air causing the formation of ice in the ground. This period was followed by a sea level rise that flooded the continental shelf with warmer waters, resulting in an intensive change of the thermal regime. The relict permafrost still reacts to this thermal change and is continuously thawing. Associated with the presence of relict permafrost, extensive gas hydrates exist to >1,000 m below the seafloor. Climate warming threatens both the stability of permafrost and associated gas hydrates. Their thawing and decomposition can cause a release of greenhouse gases which in turn amplifies climate warming. This study uses marine seismic reflection data to identify permafrost and gas hydrate in the southern Canadian Beaufort Sea. We find indicators of the top and base of permafrost and the base of the gas hydrate stability zone in the outer continental shelf area. Our work shows that the permafrost and gas hydrates still extend to the outer continental shelf and thereby supports previously published numerical models.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Seismic reflection data reveal occurrences and extent of submarine permafrost and associated gas hydrates at the Canadian Beaufort Shelf〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Synthetic modeling of permafrost and gas hydrate is required to assess seismic processing minimizing the potential for misinterpretation〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Indicators of top and base of permafrost and the base of gas hydrate stability support previously published numerical models〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Korean Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries
    Description: Environmental Geoscience Program of the Geological Survey of Canada
    Description: https://dx.doi.org/doi:10.22663/KOPRI-KPDC-00001958.3
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; submarine permafrost ; gas hydrate ; marine seismic ; Canadian Beaufort Sea ; seismic reflection
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Oxygen Dependent Temperature Regulation of Benthic Fluxes in Reservoirs (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-16
    Description: Temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration are critical factors affecting the exchange of solutes between sediment and water; both factors will be affected by warming of lakes and thereby influence water quality. Temperature and oxygen responses of single solute fluxes are well known; however, not much is known about the interaction of temperature and oxygen in regulating the balance of different fluxes in the benthic environment. We analyzed benthic flux (mobilization and immobilization) data of various solutes (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), CH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉, NO〈sub〉3〈/sub〉〈sup〉−〈/sup〉‐N, NH〈sub〉4〈/sub〉+〈/sup〉‐N, SRP, SO〈sub〉4〈/sub〉〈sup〉−〈/sup〉, Fe, Mn, and O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) collected from laboratory incubations of 142 sediment cores from 5 different reservoirs incubated under varying in situ temperature and oxygen conditions. Oxygen was the primary driver of benthic fluxes, while temperature and total organic content were secondary. Temperature effects on benthic fluxes were stronger under anoxic conditions which imply that warming will substantially increase the benthic fluxes if the sediment surface becomes anoxic. The varying temperature response of processes underlying the studied fluxes will result in a shift of their relative importance in the benthic environment, especially in shallow lakes that are more vulnerable to warming. For example, more anoxic conditions will shift the equilibrium between net sulfate reduction and methane release toward the latter. We also predict that physical effects of warming leading to hypolimnetic oxygen depletion, that is, stronger stratification and longer hypolimnetic confinement will increase the benthic mobilization of phosphorus, DOC, and methane into water and immobilization of sulfate by the sediments even in deep lakes.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration control the release of undesirable components buried in lake or reservoir sediments, that is, nutrients, metals, and organic matter, which can cause water quality problems. We investigated the effects of rising temperature and levels of oxygen on the release of undesirable components by performing experiments using sediments and water from five different reservoirs. The sediments with a layer of water on top were incubated under different in situ temperature (low and high) and oxygen conditions (with and without). Our results show that the absence of oxygen was the main cause of the release of nutrients and metals. When there was no oxygen in the sediment and water, nutrients and metals were released from the sediment into the water and this effect increased when temperature was high. There is higher possibility that phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon, and methane will be released from sediments in some reservoirs as a result of global warming.
    Description: Key Points: Solute fluxes from benthic lake sediments varied in response to temperature, with oxygen fluxes responding most strongly. Temperature effects on the magnitude of benthic fluxes were stronger under anoxic than oxic conditions. Direct temperature effects on reservoir water quality will be small compared to indirect effects through anoxia facilitation.
    Description: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
    Description: MINECO
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.928570
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; temperature dependency ; oxygen ; benthic fluxes ; reservoirs ; anoxia ; activation energy
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Advances in New Zealand's Tephrochronostratigraphy Using Marine Drill Sites: The Neogene (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-16
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Three volcanic arcs have been the source of New Zealand's volcanic activity since the Neogene: Northland arc, Coromandel Volcanic Zone (CVZ) and Taupō Volcanic Zone (TVZ). The eruption chronology for the Quaternary, sourced by the TVZ, is well studied and established, whereas the volcanic evolution of the precursor arc systems, like the CVZ (central activity c. 18 to 2 Ma), is poorly known due to limited accessibility to, or identification of, onshore volcanic deposits and their sources. Here, we investigate the marine tephra record of the Neogene, mostly sourced by the CVZ, of cores from IODP Exp. 375 (Sites U1520 and U1526), ODP Leg 181 (Sites 1123, 1124 and 1125), IODP Leg 329 (Site U1371) and DSDP Leg 90 (Site 594) offshore of New Zealand. In total, we identify 306 primary tephra layers in the marine sediments. Multi‐approach age models (e.g. biostratigraphy, zircon ages) are used in combination with geochemical fingerprinting (major and trace element compositions) and the stratigraphic context of each marine tephra layer to establish 168 tie‐lines between marine tephra layers from different holes and sites. Following this approach, we identify 208 explosive volcanic events in the Neogene between c. 17.5 and 2.6 Ma. This is the first comprehensive study of New Zealand's Neogene explosive volcanism established from tephrochronostratigraphic studies, which reveals continuous volcanic activity between c. 12 and 2.6 Ma with an abrupt compositional change at c. 4.5 Ma, potentially associated with the transition from CVZ to TVZ.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Since 18 Ma, volcanic activity in New Zealand is dominantly sourced by the Coromandel Volcanic Zone (CVZ). Most caldera systems of the CVZ identified so far are located on Coromandel Peninsula in the NW of North Island, New Zealand, but studies of the CVZ are rare mainly due to the limited accessibility of its volcanic deposits, as well as missing stratigraphic continuity between different outcrops and the volcanic source. Here, our ocean drilling tephra record—mainly volcanic ash from explosive eruptions, distributed and falling out over the ocean—has a great potential to reveal the eruption history of the CVZ because it is preserved in marine sediments in a nearly undisturbed stratigraphic context. We analyzed ∼400 marine tephra layers from multiple ocean sediment cores off the coast of New Zealand for their geochemical glass compositions and identified 306 as largely undisturbed ash deposits. These primary ash deposits correspond to a total number of 208 Neogene volcanic events. Different dating methods result in a continuous marine tephra record for the last 12 Ma, equivalent to a unique and most complete eruptive history for the CVZ. This enables us to further unravel changes in the composition of the associated magmas with time.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉New Zealand's Neogene explosive volcanism based on the marine tephra record〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Geochemical fingerprinting of marine tephra layers across the study area to establish volcanic events〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Insights into geochemical variations with time, repose times and spatiotemporal distribution〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: DFG
    Description: Marsden project
    Description: https://doi.org/10.14379/iodp.proc.372B375.210.2023
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; marine tephrochronostratigraphy ; geochemical fingerprinting ; correlations of marine tephras between individual drill sites ; IODP ; ODP and DSDP drill sites ; neogene eruption record of New Zealand
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    European Summer Synoptic Circulations and Their Observed 2022 and Projected Influence on Hot Extremes and Dry Spells (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-16
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In 2022, western Europe experienced its hottest summer on record and widespread dry conditions, with substantial impacts on health, water and vegetation. We use a reanalysis to classify daily mean sea level pressure fields and to investigate the influence of synoptic circulations on the occurrence of temperature extremes and dry days. Summer 2022 featured an above‐normal occurrence of anticyclones extending from the British Isles to the Baltic countries, as well as enhanced easterly, southerly and low‐flow conditions which contributed to the observed extremes over southern and western Europe. While the hot summer of 2022 is only partially explained by circulation anomalies, such anomalies played a key role in the exceptional occurrence of dry days. The comparison with summer circulation anomalies projected by twenty global climate models moreover suggests that future circulation changes will further exacerbate hot and dry extremes over Europe.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In 2022, western Europe recorded its hottest summer up to date since preindustrial times. At the same time, widespread dry conditions caused dramatic impacts on human health, water resources, crop yields and wildfires. This was partly enhanced by the human–caused cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases, but also potentially by large‐scale circulation anomalies that may also be triggered by global warming. By grouping distinct weather patterns, we find that many extreme hot days during the summer of 2022 over well‐defined parts of Europe were favored by anomalous transport of hot and dry air masses or persistent low‐wind conditions. These weather patterns were essential but not the dominant factor that led to the occurrence of extreme temperatures. Yet, they played a key role in enhancing the number of dry days. We also find that the weather patterns observed in summer 2022 will become more common in coming decades if greenhouse gas emissions remain without reduction. This would further worsen hot and dry extremes in summer over Europe.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points : 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉European summer 2022 hot extremes have been enhanced by an anomalous occurrence of distinct circulation types over different subdomains〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Predominant circulation anomalies also contributed to the exceptional number of dry days, as much as local, mostly thermodynamical effects〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Such anomalous circulations will become more common, thus further worsening European hot and dry extremes〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska‐Curie Actions http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100018694
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; hot summer 2022 ; hot extremes ; circulation types ; circulation classification ; climate change ; atmospheric circulation
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    A Comparison Study of Mg/Ca‐, Alkenone‐, and TEX86‐Derived Temperatures for the Brazilian Margin (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-14
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The reconstruction of accurate sea‐surface temperatures (SST) is of utmost importance due to the ocean's central role in the global climate system. Yet, a number of environmental processes might bias reliable SST estimations. Here, we investigate the fidelity of SST reconstructions for the western tropical South Atlantic (WTSA) for the interval covered by Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 6–5, utilizing a core collected off eastern Brazil at ∼20°S. This interval was selected as previous SST estimates based on Mg/Ca ratios of planktic foraminifera suggested a peculiar pooling of warm surface waters in the WTSA during MIS 6 despite glacial boundary conditions. To ground‐truth the Mg/Ca‐based SST data we generated SST reconstructions on the same core material using the alkenone and TEX〈sub〉86〈/sub〉 paleothermometers. Comparison with alkenone‐based temperature estimates corroborate the previous Mg/Ca‐based SST reconstructions, supporting the suggestion of a warm‐water anomaly during MIS 6. In contrast, TEX〈sub〉86〈/sub〉‐derived temperatures, albeit representing annual mean SST in recent core top samples, are up to 6°C colder than Mg/Ca‐ and alkenone‐based SST reconstructions. We interpret the periods of anomalously cold TEX〈sub〉86〈/sub〉‐temperatures as a result of a vertical migration of the TEX〈sub〉86〈/sub〉 producers (heterotrophic marine Thaumarchaeota) toward greater water depths, following food availability during phases of enhanced fluvial suspension input. Likewise, the data suggest that alkenone‐based SST are, albeit to a minor degree when compared to TEX〈sub〉86〈/sub〉, affected by river run‐off and/or a seasonal bias in the growth season of haptophyte algae.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In this study, we investigate the accuracy of sea‐surface temperature (SST) reconstructions for the western tropical South Atlantic (WTSA) for the interval covered by Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 6–5—the penultimate glacial‐interglacial cycle (ca. 190,000 to 70,00 years before present). This time interval was selected because previous SST estimates based on Mg/Ca ratios of planktic foraminifera suggested a pooling of warm surface waters in the WTSA during late MIS 6 despite the cold glacial conditions. To verify the Mg/Ca‐based SST data, we generated temperature reconstructions from a core located off Eastern Brazil using two common paleothermometers that based on lipid biomarkers: alkenone and TEX〈sub〉86〈/sub〉. The alkenone‐based temperature estimates agree with previous Mg/Ca‐based SST reconstructions, supporting the existence of a warm‐water anomaly in the WTSA during MIS 6. On the other hand, TEX〈sub〉86〈/sub〉‐derived temperatures were up to 6°C colder than Mg/Ca‐ and alkenone‐based SST reconstructions. This discrepancy might be a result of a vertical migration of the TEX86 producers toward greater water depths where they feed on particles of organic matter. These migrations into deeper waters occurred during phases of increased river run‐off fluvial suspension input which enhanced surface primary productivity and facilitated vertical particle flux through the water column.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Parallel Mg/Ca (〈italic〉Globigerinoides ruber〈/italic〉), alkenone and TEX〈sub〉86〈/sub〉‐based temperature estimates in the western tropical South Atlantic (WTSA) across Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 6–5〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Mg/Ca and alkenones represent annual mean sea surface temperatures, but most TEX〈sub〉86〈/sub〉‐based temperatures deviate to colder values〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Anomalous sea surface warming in the WTSA during late MIS 6 appears as a robust signal〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: R/V METEOR
    Description: DFG
    Description: CNPq
    Description: FAPESP
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.956207
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; Mg/Ca ; alkenones ; TEX86 ; MIS 6 ; Brazilian Margin ; MIS 5
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    Assessing Precipitation Over the Amazon Basin as Simulated by a Storm‐Resolving Model (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-19
    Description: In this study, we investigate whether a better representation of precipitation in the Amazon basin arises through an explicit representation of convection and whether it is related to the representation of organized systems. In addition to satellite data, we use ensemble simulations of the ICON‐NWP model at storm‐resolving (2.5–5.0 km) scales with explicit convection (E‐CON) and coarse resolutions, with parameterized convection (P‐CON). The main improvements in the representation of Amazon precipitation by E‐CON are in the distribution of precipitation intensity and the spatial distribution in the diurnal cycle. By isolating precipitation from organized convective systems (OCS), it is shown that many of the well simulated precipitation features in the Amazon arise from the distribution of these systems. The simulated and observed OCS are classified into 6 clusters which distinguish nocturnal and diurnal OCS. While the E‐CON ensembles capture the OCS, especially their diurnal cycle, their frequency is reduced compared to observations. Diurnal clusters are influenced by surface processes such as cold pools, which aid to the propagation of OCS. Nocturnal clusters are rather associated with strong low‐level easterlies, possibly related to the Amazonian low‐level jet. Our results also show no systematic improvement with a twofold grid refinement and remaining biases related to stratiform features of OCS suggest that yet unresolved processes play an important role for correctly representing precipitating systems in the Amazon.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The Amazon basin is a relevant element of the Earth system because it influences the global water and carbon cycle, as well as it constitutes a unique ecosystem. Over this important region, conventional climate models do not simulate basic features of rainfall given their inability to resolve this physical process due to their coarse spatial resolution. In this study, we use high‐resolution simulations that allow an explicit representation of such physical process (moist convection) and compare them with a set of coarse‐resolution simulations and observed precipitation. We find that improvements in the representation of Amazon rainfall, such as the distribution of light and high intensity rain rates, as well as the spatial variability of the diurnal cycle, are explained by the explicit representation of moist convection. Moreover, these improvements arise from the representation of big and organized systems that produce intense rainfall (OCS). We find that particular environmental conditions are associated with the OCS according to their time of occurrence. Diurnal OCS are mainly influenced by interactions with the surface, while nocturnal OCS are related to strong low‐level winds. Some of the remaining discrepancies with observed OCS do not show improvements when refining the grid by a factor of two.
    Description: Key Points: An explicit representation of convection enables the emergence of organized systems (OCS) leading to improved simulations of Amazon rainfall. Propagating cold‐pools and strong low‐level easterlies are related to the occurrence of diurnal and nocturnal OCS, respectively. Systematic biases in the size, intensity and nocturnal precipitation phase of OCS are insensitive to a twofold refinement in resolution.
    Description: Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science
    Description: European Horizon 2020 project CONSTRAIN
    Description: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html
    Description: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/cmorph-high-resolution-global-precipitation-estimates/access/30min/8km
    Description: https://www.hydrosheds.org/products/hydrobasins
    Description: https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/cmip6-dkrz/
    Description: https://pure.mpg.de/
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Amazon rainfall ; organized precipitating systems ; storm‐resolving simulation
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    High‐resolution in situ stable isotope measurements reveal contrasting atmospheric vapour dynamics above different urban vegetation (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-19
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉We monitored stable water isotopes in liquid precipitation and atmospheric water vapour (δ〈sub〉v〈/sub〉) using in situ cavity ring‐down spectroscopy (CRDS) over a 2 month period in an urban green space area in Berlin, Germany. Our aim was to better understand the origins of atmospheric moisture and its link to water partitioning under contrasting urban vegetation. δ〈sub〉v〈/sub〉 was monitored at multiple heights (0.15, 2 and 10 m) in grassland and forest plots. The isotopic composition of δ〈sub〉v〈/sub〉 above both land uses was highly dynamic and positively correlated with that of rainfall indicating the changing sources of atmospheric moisture. Further, the isotopic composition of δ〈sub〉v〈/sub〉 was similar across most heights of the 10 m profiles and between the two plots indicating high aerodynamic mixing. Only at the surface at ~0.15 m height above the grassland δ〈sub〉v〈/sub〉 showed significant differences, with more enrichment in heavy isotopes indicative of evaporative fractionation especially after rainfall events. Further, disequilibrium between δ〈sub〉v〈/sub〉 and precipitation composition was evident during and right after rainfall events with more positive values (i.e., values of vapour higher than precipitation) in summer and negative values in winter, which probably results from higher evapotranspiration and more convective precipitation events in summer. Our work showed that it is technically feasible to produce continuous, longer‐term data on δ〈sub〉v〈/sub〉 isotope composition in urban areas from in situ monitoring using CRDS, providing new insights into water cycling and partitioning across the critical zone of an urban green space in Central Europe. Such data have the potential to better constrain the isotopic interface between the atmosphere and the land surface and to thus, improve ecohydrological models that can resolve evapotranspiration fluxes.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In situ measurements of urban atmospheric water isotopes (δ〈sub〉v〈/sub〉) at different heights produce reliable and stable high‐resolution data. Urban atmospheric vapour is influenced by varying drivers depending on the type of green space. δ〈sub〉v〈/sub〉 above grassland and tree stands was similar at 10 m height, but near‐surface δ〈sub〉v〈/sub〉 indicated higher evaporation and vapour enrichment over grass. We detected occasional dis‐equilibrium between vapour and precipitation isotopes.〈boxed-text position="anchor" content-type="graphic" id="hyp14989-blkfxd-0001" xml:lang="en"〉 〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:08856087:media:hyp14989:hyp14989-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Einstein Stiftung Berlin http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006188
    Description: Leverhulme Trust http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000275
    Description: German Research Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Einstein Research Unit
    Description: Einstein Foundation Berlin and Berlin University Alliance
    Description: BiNatur
    Description: BMBF http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Leverhulme Trust through the ISO‐LAND project
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; atmospheric vapour isotopes ; cities ; ecohydrology ; equilibrium assumption ; in situ monitoring ; urban green spaces
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Dissolved gases in the deep North Atlantic track ocean ventilation processes (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-03-21
    Description: Gas exchange between the atmosphere and ocean interior profoundly impacts global climate and biogeochemistry. However, our understanding of the relevant physical processes remains limited by a scarcity of direct observations. Dissolved noble gases in the deep ocean are powerful tracers of physical air-sea interaction due to their chemical and biological inertness, yet their isotope ratios have remained underexplored. Here, we present high-precision noble gas isotope and elemental ratios from the deep North Atlantic (~32°N, 64°W) to evaluate gas exchange parameterizations using an ocean circulation model. The unprecedented precision of these data reveal deep-ocean undersaturation of heavy noble gases and isotopes resulting from cooling-driven air-to-sea gas transport associated with deep convection in the northern high lati-tudes. Our data also imply an underappreciated and large role for bubble-mediated gas exchange in the global air-sea transfer of sparingly soluble gases, including O2, N2, and SF6. Using noble gases to validate the physical representation of air-sea gas exchange in a model also provides a unique opportunity to distinguish physical from biogeochemical signals. As a case study, we compare dissolved N2/Ar measurements in the deep North Atlantic to physics-only model predictions, revealing excess N2 from benthic denitrification in older deep waters (below 2.9 km). These data indicate that the rate of fixed N removal in the deep Northeastern Atlantic is at least three times higher than the global deep-ocean mean, suggesting tight coupling with organic carbon export and raising potential future implications for the marine N cycle.
    Description: NSF, UK NERC, University of Oxford Advanced Research Computing facility
    Description: https://www.bco-dmo.org/project/887496
    Description: research
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; gas exchange ; nitrogen cycle ; overturning circulation ; air-sea interaction ; noble gases
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article , publishedVersion
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  • 17
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    Deciphering the Whisper of Volcanoes: Monitoring Velocity Changes at Kamchatka's Klyuchevskoy Group With Fluctuating Noise Fields (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-21
    Description: Volcanic inflation and deflation often precede eruptions and can lead to seismic velocity changes (dv/v $dv/v$) in the subsurface. Recently, interferometry on the coda of ambient noise‐cross‐correlation functions yielded encouraging results in detecting these changes at active volcanoes. Here, we analyze seismic data recorded at the Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group in Kamchatka, Russia, between summer of 2015 and summer of 2016 to study signals related to volcanic activity. However, ubiquitous volcanic tremors introduce distortions in the noise wavefield that cause artifacts in the dv/v $dv/v$ estimates masking the impact of physical mechanisms. To avoid such instabilities, we propose a new technique called time‐segmented passive image interferometry. In this technique, we employ a hierarchical clustering algorithm to find periods in which the wavefield can be considered stationary. For these periods, we perform separate noise interferometry studies. To further increase the temporal resolution of our results, we use an AI‐driven approach to find stations with similar dv/v $dv/v$ responses and apply a spatial stack. The impacts of snow load and precipitation dominate the resulting dv/v $dv/v$ time series, as we demonstrate with the help of a simple model. In February 2016, we observe an abrupt velocity drop due to the M7.2 Zhupanov earthquake. Shortly after, we register a gradual velocity increase of about 0.3% at Bezymianny Volcano coinciding with surface deformation observed using remote sensing techniques. We suggest that the inflation of a shallow reservoir related to the beginning of Bezymianny's 2016/2017 eruptive cycle could have caused this local velocity increase and a decorrelation of the correlation function coda.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Before eruptions, volcanoes inflate due to the rising magma from below. Previous studies have found that these deformations can lead to small changes in the properties of the surrounding rock. We use passive image interferometry, a method that relies on the omnipresent background vibration of the Earth—mostly induced by the oceans, to measure these changes at the Klyuchevskoy Volcanic Group in Kamchatka, Russia. However, in Kamchatka, this background noise is masked and distorted by small earthquakes and tremors originating from the volcanoes themselves. We combine machine learning techniques with established monitoring methods to find times when these tremors remain similar. Afterward, we use data from these time periods in the conventional way to observe changes in the soil and the rock. Our results show that rain‐ and snowfall and the thickness of the snow cover exert the strongest influence on the properties of the rocks. Additionally, we found that a large magnitude 7.2 earthquake, which struck Kamchatka during our study, caused a slight weakening of the rocks due to microstructural damage. We register changes shortly before an eruption and suggest a connection to the beginning of an eruptive cycle in 2016.
    Description: Key Points: Fluctuating noise conditions lead to distortions in noise interferometry studies, which we avoid with the help of machine learning. The seismic velocity on Kamchatka is affected by numerous mechanisms, amongst them environmental, tectonic, and volcanic events. We observe a velocity increase at Bezymianny during February 2016 and link it to the beginning of the eruptive cycle.
    Description: German Research Foundation
    Description: https://doi.org/10.14470/K47560642124
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.4.2022.002
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7481934
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; seismology ; volcano monitoring ; machine learning ; ambient noise ; seismic velocity change ; time varying earth structure
    Language: English
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  • 18
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    High Heat Flow Anomaly Within the St Paul Fracture Zone: Heat Advection and/or Inherent Thermal Structure? (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-21
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Heat flow across oceanic transform faults (TFs) and fracture zones (FZs) has rarely been studied in detail, despite these features representing distinct thermal boundaries within the oceanic lithosphere. Here, we present heat flow measurements across the St Paul fracture zone (SPFZ) in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, from 48 Ma crust in the south to 71 Ma in the north. To the north of the FZ we find a basal heat flow of 63 mWm〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉, and to the south a basal heat flow of 79 mWm〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉, both in agreement with plate cooling models. However, within the SPFZ we find a heat flow of 83 mWm〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉, greater than the values of the adjacent crust and 10–15 mWm〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉 higher than predicted from conductive cooling models, suggesting that the thermal structure of the FZ has been modified. Evidence from seismic and sub‐bottom profiler data indicate recent active deformation within the SPFZ, potentially driven by lithospheric flexure across the FZ or temporal changes in TF configuration. We propose that this deformation may enable fluid circulation and heat advection within the basement, creating the seafloor heat flow anomaly within the FZ. These findings suggest that FZs may remain important zones predisposed to host deformation and fluid flow in the oceanic lithosphere, despite not being active plate boundaries.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: A high heat flow anomaly of 10–15 mWm〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉 is observed in the St Paul fracture zone compared to the adjacent oceanic crust. The heat flow anomaly is likely due to tectonically driven fluid flow but thermal rejuvenation at the transform fault could also contribute. Fracture zones may act as high permeability pathways for fluid flow, and form and evolve differently to standard oceanic lithosphere.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: FP7 Ideas: European Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011199
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.950419
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.950420
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; fracture zone ; heat flow ; oceanic crust ; St Paul ; fluid flow ; lithosphere
    Language: English
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  • 19
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    Convergence of forecast distributions in a 100,000‐member idealised convective‐scale ensemble (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Many operational weather services use ensembles of forecasts to generate probabilistic predictions. Computational costs generally limit the size of the ensemble to fewer than 100 members, although the large number of degrees of freedom in the forecast model would suggest that a vastly larger ensemble would be required to represent the forecast probability distribution accurately. In this study, we use a computationally efficient idealised model that replicates key properties of the dynamics and statistics of cumulus convection to identify how the sampling uncertainty of statistical quantities converges with ensemble size. Convergence is quantified by computing the width of the 95% confidence interval of the sampling distribution of random variables, using bootstrapping on the ensemble distributions at individual time and grid points. Using ensemble sizes of up to 100,000 members, it was found that for all computed distribution properties, including mean, variance, skew, kurtosis, and several quantiles, the sampling uncertainty scaled as 〈mml:math id="jats-math-1" display="inline" overflow="scroll"〉〈mml:msup〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mi〉n〈/mml:mi〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mo form="prefix"〉−〈/mml:mo〉〈mml:mn〉1〈/mml:mn〉〈mml:mo stretchy="false"〉/〈/mml:mo〉〈mml:mn〉2〈/mml:mn〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈/mml:msup〉〈/mml:math〉 for sufficiently large ensemble size 〈mml:math id="jats-math-2" display="inline" overflow="scroll"〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mi〉n〈/mml:mi〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈/mml:math〉. This behaviour is expected from the Central Limit Theorem, which further predicts that the magnitude of the uncertainty depends on the distribution shape, with a large uncertainty for statistics that depend on rare events. This prediction was also confirmed, with the additional observation that such statistics also required larger ensemble sizes before entering the asymptotic regime. By considering two methods for evaluating asymptotic behaviour in small ensembles, we show that the large‐〈mml:math id="jats-math-3" display="inline" overflow="scroll"〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mi〉n〈/mml:mi〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈/mml:math〉 theory can be applied usefully for some forecast quantities even for the ensemble sizes in operational use today.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉An idealised ensemble that replicates key properties of the dynamics and statistics of cumulus convection is used to identify how sampling uncertainty of statistical quantities converges with ensemble size. A universal asymptotic scaling for this convergence was found, which was dependent on the statistic and the distribution shape, with largest uncertainty for statistics that depend on rare events. This is demonstrated in the figure below for a Gaussian distributed model variable, where the sampling uncertainty (y‐axis) for 5 quantiles (red lines) indicates that after a certain ensemble size, it begins converging asymptotically (grey lines), and the more extreme the quantile, the more members it requires for this to be the case. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4410-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4410:qj4410-toc-0001"〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Klaus Tschira Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007316
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; asymptotic convergence ; distributions ; ensembles ; idealised model ; sampling uncertainty ; weather prediction
    Language: English
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  • 20
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    North Atlantic Drift Sediments Constrain Eocene Tidal Dissipation and the Evolution of the Earth‐Moon System (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-18
    Description: Cyclostratigraphy and astrochronology are now at the forefront of geologic timekeeping. While this technique heavily relies on the accuracy of astronomical calculations, solar system chaos limits how far back astronomical calculations can be performed with confidence. High‐resolution paleoclimate records with Milankovitch imprints now allow reversing the traditional cyclostratigraphic approach: Middle Eocene drift sediments from Newfoundland Ridge are well‐suited for this purpose, due to high sedimentation rates and distinct lithological cycles. Per contra, the stratigraphies of Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Sites U1408–U1410 are highly complex with several hiatuses. Here, we built a two‐site composite and constructed a conservative age‐depth model to provide a reliable chronology for this rhythmic, highly resolved (〈1 kyr) sedimentary archive. Astronomical components (g‐terms and precession constant) are extracted from proxy time‐series using two different techniques, producing consistent results. We find astronomical frequencies up to 4% lower than reported in astronomical solution La04. This solution, however, was smoothed over 20‐Myr intervals, and our results therefore provide constraints on g‐term variability on shorter, million‐year timescales. We also report first evidence that the g〈sub〉4〈/sub〉–g〈sub〉3〈/sub〉 “grand eccentricity cycle” may have had a 1.2‐Myr period around 41 Ma, contrary to its 2.4‐Myr periodicity today. Our median precession constant estimate (51.28 ± 0.56″/year) confirms earlier indicators of a relatively low rate of tidal dissipation in the Paleogene. Newfoundland Ridge drift sediments thus enable a reliable reconstruction of astronomical components at the limit of validity of current astronomical calculations, extracted from geologic data, providing a new target for the next generation of astronomical calculations.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The traditional cyclostratigraphic approach is to align and correlate a geologic depth‐series with an astronomical solution. However, the chaotic nature of the Solar System prevents astronomers from precisely calculating planetary motions beyond 40–50 million years ago. This in turn limits the options for geologists to use the resulting oscillations in Earth's climate system as a metronome for determining geologic time. In this study, we reversed the cyclostratigraphic approach and used the highly rhythmical sedimentary deposits from Newfoundland Ridge (North Atlantic) to back‐calculate planetary motions at ∼41 million years ago. The superior quality of the Newfoundland Ridge geoarchive originates from the combination of relatively high sedimentation rates (∼4 cm/kyr) and the time‐continuous character of our two‐site composite record between 39.5 and 42.8 million years ago. In this work, we had to first overcome considerable challenges in reconstructing the timing of sediment deposition, which we did with highly resolved geochemical measurements from two sites. We then were able to extract information on the Earth's planetary motion and on the Earth‐Moon interactions. These astronomical reconstructions based on geological data can now be used by astronomers to describe the evolution of the solar system further back in time than was previously possible.
    Description: Key Points: A new precession‐based cyclostratigraphy for the middle Eocene intervals of IODP Sites U1408 and U1410. Variability in astronomical fundamental frequencies (g‐terms) on million‐year timescales is larger than previously assumed. Our precession constant estimate for 41 Ma (51.28 ± 0.56″/year) confirms earlier indicators of slower tidal dissipation in the Paleogene.
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Description: University of California http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005595
    Description: Belgian American Educational Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100001491
    Description: https://paloz.marum.de/AstroComputation/index.html
    Description: https://paloz.marum.de/confluence/display/ESPUBLIC/NAFF
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; North Atlantic ; Eocene ; cyclostratigraphy ; astrochronology
    Language: English
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  • 21
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    Predicting Convective Downdrafts From Updrafts and Environmental Conditions in a Global Storm Resolving Simulation (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-17
    Description: One important component of precipitating convection is the formation of convective downdrafts. They can terminate the initial updraft, affect the mean properties of the boundary layer, and cause strong winds at the surface. While the basic forcing mechanisms for downdrafts are well understood, it is difficult to formulate general relationships between updrafts, environmental conditions, and downdrafts. To better understand what controls different downdraft properties, we analyze downdrafts over tropical oceans in a global storm resolving simulation. Using a global model allows us to examine a large number of downdrafts under naturally varying environmental conditions. We analyze the various factors affecting downdrafts using three alternative methods. First, hierarchical clustering is used to examine the correlation between different downdraft, updraft, and environmental variables. Then, either random forests or multiple linear regression are used to estimate the relationships between downdraft properties and the updraft and environmental predictors. We find that these approaches yield similar results. Around 75% of the variability in downdraft mass flux and 37% of the variability in downdraft velocity are predictable. Analyzing the relative importance of our various predictors, we find that downdrafts are coupled to updrafts via the precipitation generation argument. In particular, updraft properties determine rain amount and rate, which then largely control the downdraft mass flux and, albeit to a lesser extent, the downdraft velocity. Among the environmental variables considered, only lapse rate is a valuable predictor: a more unstable environment favors a higher downdraft mass flux and a higher downdraft velocity.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Once a cloud begins to rain, the air inside or below the cloud can gain negative buoyancy and sink to the ground. This downward movement of air is called a downdraft. Downdrafts can end the life cycle of a cloud and also result in strong, sometimes destructive, wind gusts at the surface. The basic driving forces for downdrafts are well understood. For example, we know that evaporation of rain and the associated latent cooling of air is usually critical in causing the air to become negatively buoyant. Even though the basic driving forces are known, many interrelated processes contribute simultaneously to the strength of the downdraft, making it difficult to predict the strength of a downdraft under specific conditions. In this study, we use an atmospheric simulation whose model domain spans the globe and can explicitly resolve rain clouds. Compared to previous studies, the use of a global domain allows us to study a very large number of rain clouds, and their associated downdrafts, which form under very different, naturally varying environmental conditions. Machine learning techniques and traditional statistical methods agree on the result that the strength of the downdraft can be well predicted if we know the strength of the updraft that caused the downdraft or, even better, if we know the amount of rain that an updraft produced. Surprisingly, we have found that downdrafts can be predicted only slightly better if we also know other environmental conditions of the air surrounding the downdraft, such as the temperature and/or humidity profiles.
    Description: Key Points: The best predictors of downdraft mass flux and velocity are rain amount and rate, respectively. Updraft properties impact downdraft properties through their control on rain formation. For a given rain amount and rate, environmental conditions add little skill to downdraft prediction.
    Description: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
    Description: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
    Description: https://mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/modeling-with-icon/code-availability
    Description: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0009-A854-B
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; convective downdrafts ; global storm resolving simulation ; machine learning ; random forest ; multiple linear regression
    Language: English
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  • 22
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    Impact of Aeolus wind lidar observations on the representation of the West African monsoon circulation in the ECMWF and DWD forecasting systems (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-17
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉〈italic toggle="no"〉Aeolus〈/italic〉 is the first satellite mission to acquire vertical profiles of horizontal line‐of‐sight winds globally and thus fills an important gap in the Global Observing System, most notably in the Tropics. This study explores the impact of this dataset on analyses and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), focusing specifically on the West African Monsoon (WAM) circulation during the boreal summers of 2019 and 2020. The WAM is notoriously challenging to forecast and is characterized by prominent and robust large‐scale circulation features such as the African Easterly Jet North (AEJ‐North) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). Assimilating 〈italic toggle="no"〉Aeolus〈/italic〉 generally improves the prediction of zonal winds in both forecasting systems, especially for lead times above 24 h. These improvements are related to systematic differences in the representation of the two jets, with the AEJ‐North weakened at its southern flank in the western Sahel in the ECMWF analysis, while no obvious systematic differences are seen in the DWD analysis. In addition, the TEJ core is weakened in the ECMWF analysis and strengthened on its southern edge in the DWD analysis. The regions where the influence of 〈italic toggle="no"〉Aeolus〈/italic〉 on the analysis is greatest correspond to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region for ECMWF and generally the upper troposphere for DWD. In addition, we show the presence of an altitude‐ and orbit‐dependent bias in the Rayleigh‐clear channel, which causes the zonal winds to speed up and slow down diurnally. Applying a temperature‐dependent bias correction to this channel contributes to a more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle and improved prediction of the WAM winds. These improvements are encouraging for future investigations of the influence of 〈italic toggle="no"〉Aeolus〈/italic〉 data on African Easterly Waves and associated Mesoscale Convective Systems.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Forecasting in tropical Africa is hampered by large model errors and low availability of conventional observations. The assimilation of 〈italic〉Aeolus〈/italic〉 wind data into the operational ECMWF system leads to a consistent root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) reduction of the order of 2% in +48 h zonal wind forecasts over the region during boreal summer 2019, including the African and Tropical Easterly Jets (AEJ, TEJ) and subtropical jets (STJ). 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4442-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4442:qj4442-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: https://aeolus-ds.eo.esa.int/oads/access/collection
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; aeolus satellite ; doppler wind lidar ; data assimilation ; numerical weather prediction impact ; African easterly jet ; tropical easterly jet ; observing system experiments
    Language: English
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  • 23
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    East Asian summer precipitation in AWI‐CM3: Comparison with observations and CMIP6 models (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-13
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Owing to the complicated spatial–temporal characteristics of East Asian precipitation (EAP), climate models have limited skills in simulating the modern Asian climate. This consequently leads to large uncertainties in simulations of the past EAP variation and future projections. Here, we explore the performance of the newly developed Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model, version 3 (AWI‐CM3) in simulating the climatological summer EAP. To test whether the model's skill depends on its atmosphere resolution, we design two AWI‐CM3 simulations with different horizontal resolutions. The result shows that both simulations have acceptable performance in simulating the summer mean EAP, generally better than the majority of individual models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). However, for the monthly EAP from June to August, AWI‐CM3 exhibits a decayed skill, which is due to the subseasonal movement of the western Pacific subtropical high bias. The higher‐resolution AWI‐CM3 simulation shows an overall improvement relative to the one performed at a relatively lower resolution in all aspects taken into account regarding the EAP. We conclude that AWI‐CM3 is a suitable tool for exploring the EAP for the observational period. Having verified the model's skill for modern climate, we suggest employing the AWI‐CM3, especially with high atmosphere resolution, both for applications in paleoclimate studies and future projections.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉This figure shows the skill scores of AWI‐CM3 and CMIP6 models in simulating the climatological summer East Asian precipitation (EAP), which indicates that AWI‐CM3 simulations perform better than most CMIP6 individual models for the summer mean EAP, while AWI‐CM3's skills decay from June to August.〈boxed-text position="anchor" content-type="graphic" id="joc8075-blkfxd-0001" xml:lang="en"〉 〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:08998418:media:joc8075:joc8075-toc-0001"〉 〈alt-text〉image〈/alt-text〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM
    Description: Helmholtz Program
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: China Scholarship Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543
    Description: https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/GPCC/html/fulldata-monthly_v2022_doi_download.html
    Description: https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.05
    Description: http://aphrodite.st.hirosaki-u.ac.jp/products.html
    Description: https://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html
    Description: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; AWI‐CM3 ; CMIP6 ; East Asia ; summer precipitation
    Language: English
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  • 24
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    Projected Impact of Increased Global Warming on Heat Stress and Exposed Population Over Africa (2023)
    Fotso‐Nguemo, Thierry C. ; Weber, Torsten ; Diedhiou, Arona ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-24
    Description: This study investigates the impact of increased global warming on heat stress changes and the potential number of people exposed to heat risks over Africa. For this purpose a heat index has been computed based on an ensemble‐mean of high‐resolution regional climate model simulations from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations embedded in the COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), combined with projections of population growth developed based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP1 and SSP5). Results show that by the late 21st century, the increased global warming is expected to induce a 12‐fold increase in the area extent affected by heat stress of high‐risk level. This would result in an increase of about 10%–30% in the number of days with high‐risk heat conditions, as well as about 6%–20% in their magnitude throughout the seasonal cycle over West, Central, and North‐East Africa. Therefore, and because of the lack of adaptation and mitigation policies, the exacerbation of ambient heat conditions could contribute to the exposure of about 2–8.5 million person‐events to heat stress of high‐risk level over Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria. Furthermore, it was found that the interaction effect between the climate change and population growth seems to be the most dominant in explaining the total changes in exposure due to moderate and high heat‐related risks over all subregions of the African continent.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: This study investigates the impact of increased global warming on heat stress changes and the potential number of persons likely to be exposed to heat risks over Africa. Results show that by the end of the 21st century, the increased global warming is expected to induce a 12‐fold increase in the total area affected by dangerous heat conditions over the continent. This would result in an increase of about 10%–30% in the number of days with these heat conditions, as well as about 6%–20% in their magnitude throughout the seasonal cycle over West, Central and North‐East Africa. Therefore, because of the lack of adaptation and mitigation policies, the exacerbation of ambient heat conditions could contribute to the exposure of about 2–8.5 million person‐events to heat stress of high‐risk level over Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger, and Nigeria. Since these heat events would be partly driven by interactions effects between climate change and population growth, efficient measures allowing not only to mitigate the increased greenhouse gas emissions, but also the effects of high heat on the human body must be urgently implemented on the affected countries' scale, in order to significantly decrease the vulnerability of their populations to potential heat‐related health problems.
    Description: Key Points: Increased global warming induces more spatially and temporally widespread extreme heat events over West, Central and North‐East Africa. Populations of some West African countries are projected to be particularly exposed to moderate and high heat conditions. Change in population exposure to dangerous heat categories is mainly driven by the interaction effect between climate and population growth.
    Description: Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001655
    Description: Projekt DEAL
    Description: https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/cordex/
    Description: https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/
    Description: https://www.isimip.org/gettingstarted/details/31
    Description: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/popdynamics-1-8th-pop-base-year-projection-ssp-2000-2100-rev01/data-download
    Description: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels?tab=form
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Africa ; climate change ; heat stress index ; global warming
    Language: English
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  • 25
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    Parameterizing building effects on airflows within the urban canopy layer for high‐resolution models using a nudging approach (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-24
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In this study, a new multilayer urban canopy parameterization for high‐resolution (∼1 km) atmospheric models using the nudging approach to represent the impacts of urban canopies on airflow is presented. In our parameterization, a nudging term is added to the momentum equations and a source term to the turbulent kinetic energy equation to account for building effects. The challenge of this parameterization lies in defining appropriate values for the nudging coefficient and the weighting function used to reflect canopy effects. Values of both are derived and the parameterization developed is implemented and tested for idealized cases in the Mesoscale Transport and Stream model (METRAS). Comparison data are taken from obstacle‐resolving microscale model results. Results show that the parameterization using the nudging approach can simulate aerodynamic effects induced within the canopy by obstacles well, in terms of reduction of wind speeds and production of additional turbulent kinetic energy. Thus, models with existing nudging can use this approach as an efficient and effective method to parameterize dynamic urban canopy effects.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In this study, a new multilayer urban canopy parameterization for high‐resolution (∼1 km) atmospheric models using the nudging approach to represent the impacts of urban canopies on airflow is presented. Results show that the parameterization developed can simulate aerodynamic effects induced within the canopy by obstacles well, in terms of reduction of wind speeds and production of additional turbulent kinetic energy. Models with existing nudging can use this approach as an efficient and effective method to parameterize dynamic urban canopy effects. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4524-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4524:qj4524-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy‐EXC 2037 'CLICCS‐Climate, Climatic Change, and Society'
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; canopy parameterization ; evaluation ; nudging ; numerical modelling ; urban boundary layer ; urban canopy parameterization
    Language: English
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  • 26
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    Neogene aridification and lake development in the Issyk‐Kul basin, Kyrgyzstan (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-24
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Uplift of the Tian Shan range modified regional climate during Cenozoic aridification in Central Asia. This study presents facies analyses and Neogene oxygen and carbon isotopic records from magnetostratigraphically dated terrestrial sedimentary sections on the southern side of the intermontane Issyk‐Kul basin in the Kyrgyz Tian Shan and 〈sup〉26〈/sup〉Al/〈sup〉10〈/sup〉Be isochron burial ages from the southern and eastern sides of the basin. The δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O and δ〈sup〉13〈/sup〉C data show a positive ca. 2‰ shift in values between ca. 8 and 7 Ma and a change from a negative to a positive trend. This change is attributed to the upwind growth of the Kyrgyz, Kungey and Trans Ili (Zaili) ranges, which diverted the westerlies, thereby changing the Issyk‐Kul basin from a windward to a leeward position, enhancing aridification and establishing the modern‐day spring and summer precipitation regime within the basin. Two 4 to 5 Ma 〈sup〉26〈/sup〉Al/〈sup〉10〈/sup〉Be isochron burial ages constrain the onset of Sharpyl Dak deposition on the eastern side of the basin; southward paleocurrent directions there suggest the eastward growth of the Kungey range in the Pliocene. Increased subsidence on the southern side of the basin and local tectonically induced river system reorganization led to the commencement of lake formation at ca. 5 Ma, followed by a ca. 2 Ma local depositional hiatus. The transition from sandstones of the Chu sedimentary group to conglomerates of the Sharpyl Dak group, marking a change from fluvial‐alluvial deposits to a proximal alluvial fan, is dated at 2.6–2.8 Ma by 〈sup〉26〈/sup〉Al/〈sup〉10〈/sup〉Be isochron burial dating on the southern side of the basin, driven either by tectonics or Northern Hemisphere glaciation. This study concludes that the late Miocene–Pliocene northward growth of Tian Shan significantly altered environmental conditions within the range, preventing the moisture‐bearing westerlies from reaching the intermontane Issyk‐Kul basin and promoting lake formation and expansion.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The late Miocene–Pliocene northward growth of Tian Shan created an orographic barrier that diverted the moisture‐bearing westerlies and enhanced aridification in the Issyk‐Kul basin. Reorganization of the river systems and enhanced subsidence led to the formation of an internally drained lake in Pliocene. The transition from sandstone to conglomerate (Sharpyl Dak group) deposition, linked to a change in climate and/or tectonic activity, occurred diachronously within the basin.〈boxed-text position="anchor" content-type="graphic" id="bre12751-blkfxd-0001" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:0950091X:bre12751:bre12751-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: University of Wollongong http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001777
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; Cenozoic aridification ; Central Asia ; cosmogenic 26Al/10Be ; tectonic uplift ; westerlies ; δ18O and δ13C stable isotopes
    Language: English
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  • 27
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    Projected changes in synoptic circulations over Europe and their implications for summer precipitation: A CMIP6 perspective (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Projected changes in summer precipitation deficits partly depend on alterations in synoptic circulations. Here, the automated Jenkinson–Collison classification is used to assess the ability of 21 global climate models (GCMs) to capture the frequency of recurring circulation types (CTs) and their implications for European daily precipitation amounts in summer (JJA). The ability of the GCMs to reproduce the observed present‐day climate features is evaluated first. Most GCMs capture the observed links between the mean CTs directional flow characteristics and the occurrence of dry days and related dry months. The most robust relationships are found for anticyclonic and easterly CTs which are generally associated with higher‐than‐average occurrences of dry conditions. Future changes in summer CTs' frequencies are estimated in the high‐emission SSP5‐8.5 scenario for the sake of a high signal‐to‐noise ratio. Our results reveal consistent changes, mainly in the zonal CTs. A robust decrease in frequency of the westerlies and an increase in the frequency of easterly CTs favour more continental, dry and warm air masses over central Europe. These dynamical changes are shown to enhance the projected summer drying over central and southern Europe.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Summer large‐scale circulations are derived over Europe using an automated classification. Spatial characteristics of the patterns and their influence on dry days are investigated. Future changes are explored based on global climate models. The predicted drier summers in Europe are found to be influenced by consistent changes in west‐easterly circulations.〈boxed-text position="anchor" content-type="graphic" id="joc8033-blkfxd-0001" xml:lang="en"〉 〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:08998418:media:joc8033:joc8033-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: EU International Training Network (ITN) Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub‐seasonal Extremes (CAFE)
    Description: H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions
    Description: https://github.com/PedroLormendez/jcclass
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; circulation patterns ; climate change ; precipitation ; weather extremes
    Language: English
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  • 28
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    A Snapshot on the Buildup of the Stable Water Isotopic Signal in the Upper Snowpack at EastGRIP on the Greenland Ice Sheet (2023)
    Zuhr, Alexandra M. ; Wahl, Sonja ; Steen‐Larsen, Hans Christian ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-19
    Description: The stable water isotopic composition in firn and ice cores provides valuable information on past climatic conditions. Because of uneven accumulation and post‐depositional modifications on local spatial scales up to hundreds of meters, time series derived from adjacent cores differ significantly and do not directly reflect the temporal evolution of the precipitated snow isotopic signal. Hence, a characterization of how the isotopic profile in the snow develops is needed to reliably interpret the isotopic variability in firn and ice cores. By combining digital elevation models of the snow surface and repeated high‐resolution snow sampling for stable water isotope measurements of a transect at the East Greenland Ice‐core Project campsite on the Greenland Ice Sheet, we are able to visualize the buildup and post‐depositional changes of the upper snowpack across one summer season. To this end, 30 cm deep snow profiles were sampled on six dates at 20 adjacent locations along a 40 m transect. Near‐daily photogrammetry provided snow height information for the same transect. Our data shows that erosion and redeposition of the original snowfall lead to a complex stratification in the δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O signature. Post‐depositional processes through vapor‐snow exchange affect the near surface snow with d‐excess showing a decrease in surface and near‐surface layers. Our data suggests that the interplay of stratigraphic noise, accumulation intermittency, and local post‐depositional processes form the proxy signal in the upper snowpack.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: We study the process of the formation of the stable water isotope signal in surface snow on the Greenland Ice Sheet to better understand temperature information which is stored as a climate proxy in snow and ice. Our data consist of high‐resolution surface topography information illustrating the timing and location of snowfall, erosion, and redeposition along a transect of 40 m, as well as stable water isotope records of the upper 30 cm of the snowpack sampled biweekly on 20 positions at the same 40 m long transect. The data cover a 2‐month period during the summer of 2019. We find that the isotopic composition shows spatial variability of layers with low and high values, presumably winter and summer layers. We further observe that prevailing surface structures, such as dunes, influence the snow deposition and contribute to the found variable structure of the climatic information. Eventually, snow accumulation alone cannot explain all of the observed patterns in the isotopic data which is likely related to exchange processes between the snow and the atmosphere which modify the signal in the snow column after deposition.
    Description: Key Points: Combining digital elevation models and repeated snow sampling reveals the heterogeneous buildup of δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O signal in the snow column. Surface structures (stratigraphic noise) substantially contribute to internal heterogeneity in δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O signature in the upper snowpack. Proxy signals are formed in the surface layer by local processes, advected downwards with limited post‐depositional influences below 10 cm.
    Description: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
    Description: A. P. Møller Foundation, University of Copenhagen
    Description: US National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs
    Description: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    Description: National Institute of Polar Research and Arctic Challenge for Sustainability
    Description: University of Bergen
    Description: Trond Mohn Foundation
    Description: Swiss National Science Foundation
    Description: French Polar Institute Paul‐Emile Victor, Institute for Geosciences and Environmental Research
    Description: University of Manitoba
    Description: Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Description: Beijing Normal University
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.954944
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.954945
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.951583
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.925618
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.928827
    Description: https://www.agisoft.com/downloads/installer/
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; proxy ; Greenland ; isotopes ; structure‐from‐motion ; snow accumulation ; ice core
    Language: English
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  • 29
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    Multi‐model assessment of sub‐seasonal predictive skill for year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-21
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The prediction skill of sub‐seasonal forecast models is evaluated for seven year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European region. Reforecasts based on models from three prediction centers are considered and verified against weather regimes obtained from ERA‐Interim reanalysis. Results show that predicting weather regimes as a proxy for the large‐scale circulation outperforms the prediction of raw geopotential height. Greenland blocking tends to have the longest year‐round skill horizon for all three models, especially in winter. On the other hand, the skill is lowest for the European blocking regime for all three models, followed by the Scandinavian blocking regime. Furthermore, all models struggle to forecast flow situations that cannot be assigned to a weather regime (so‐called no regime), in comparison with weather regimes. Related to this, variability in the occurrence of no regime, which is most frequent in the transition seasons, partly explains the predictability gap between transition seasons and winter and summer. We also show that models have difficulties in discriminating between related regimes. This can lead to misassignments in the predicted regime during flow situations in which related regimes manifest. Finally, we document the changes in skill between model versions, showing important improvements for the ECMWF and NCEP models. This study is the first multi‐model assessment of year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European domain. It advances our understanding of the predictive skill for weather regimes, reveals strengths and weaknesses of each model, and thus increases our confidence in the forecasts and their usefulness for decision‐making.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉This study is the first sub‐seasonal multi‐model assessment of seven year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European domain. Greenland blocking tends to have the longest year‐round skill horizon for all models, especially in winter. The skill is lowest for the European blocking regime for all models, followed by Scandinavian blocking. Variability in the occurrence of no regime partly explains the predictability gap between the transition seasons and winter and summer. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4512-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4512:qj4512-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656
    Description: AXPO Solutions AGN/A
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; blocking ; Europe ; North Atlantic oscillation ; windows of opportunity
    Language: English
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    Comparison of temperature and wind observations in the Tropics in a perfect‐model, global EnKF data assimilation system (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Flow‐dependent errors in tropical analyses and short‐range forecasts are analysed using global observing‐system simulation experiments assimilating only temperature, only winds, and both data types using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) and a perfect model framework. The idealised, homogeneous observation network provides profiles of wind and temperature data from the nature run for January 2018 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) forced by the observed sea‐surface temperature. The results show that the assimilation of abundant wind observations in a perfect model makes the temperature data in the Tropics largely uninformative. Furthermore, the assimilation of wind data reduces the background errors in specific humidity twice as much as the assimilation of temperature observations. In all experiments, the largest analysis uncertainties and the largest short‐term forecast errors are found in regions of strong vertical and longitudinal gradients in the background wind, especially in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. The horizontal error correlation scales are on average short throughout the troposphere, just several hundred km. The correlation scales of the wind variables in precipitating regions are half of those in nonprecipitating regions. In precipitating regions, the correlations are elongated vertically, especially for the wind variables. Strong positive cross‐correlations between temperature and specific humidity in the precipitating regions are explained using the Clausius–Clapeyron equation.〈/p〉
    Description: China Scholarship Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation ; forecast‐error correlations ; mass and wind observations ; temperature–moisture cross‐correlations ; Tropics
    Language: English
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    Downscaling CORDEX Through Deep Learning to Daily 1 km Multivariate Ensemble in Complex Terrain (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉High spatio‐temporal resolution near‐surface projected data is vital for climate change impact studies and adaptation. We derived the highest statistically downscaled resolution multivariate ensemble currently available: daily 1 km until the end of the century. Deep learning models were employed to develop transfer functions for precipitation, water vapor pressure, radiation, wind speed, and, maximum, mean and minimum temperature. Perfect prognosis is the particular statistical downscaling methodology applied, using a subset of the ReKIS data set for Saxony as predictands, the ERA5 reanalysis as during‐training predictors and the CORDEX‐EUR11 ensemble as projected predictors. The performance of the transfer functions was validated with the VALUE framework, yielding highly satisfactory results. Particular attention was given to the three major perfect prognosis assumptions, for which several tests were carried out and thoroughly discussed. From the latter, we corroborated their fulfillment to a high degree, thus, the derived projections are considered adequate and relevant for impact modelers. In total, 18 runs for RCP85, 1 for RCP45, and 4 for RCP26 were downscaled under both stochastic and deterministic approaches. This multivariate ensemble could drive more accurate and diverse impact studies in the region. Generally, the projected climatologies are in agreement with coarser resolution projections. Nevertheless, statistical particularities were observed for some projections, thus, a list of caveats for potential users is given. Due to the scalability of the presented methodology, further possible applications with additional datasets are proposed. Lastly, several potential improvement prospects are discussed toward the ideal subsequent iteration of the perfect prognosis statistical downscaling methodology.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: There is a great worldwide demand for high spatio‐temporal resolution projections to develop climate change adaptation and mitigation schemes. Despite recent improvements, the resolution of both global and regional climate models is still too coarse to properly represent local variability, particularly in complex terrains. Depending on the application, impact modelers and decision makers require kilometer‐scale projections, with a minimum daily temporal resolution, of near‐surface variables. To fill this information gap, we employed artificial intelligence algorithms to downscale, to a novel daily 1 km resolution, a projection ensemble until the end of the century consisting of precipitation, water vapor pressure, radiation, wind speed, and, maximum, mean and minimum temperature. The ensemble comprises 18 runs of the business‐as‐usual worst‐case scenario (RCP85), 1 run of the stabilization scenario (RCP45), and 4 of the optimistic low‐emissions scenario (RCP26). The main assumptions of the methodology were thoroughly tested and discussed. The validation carried out yielded highly satisfactory results. Thus, we consider the projections to be adequate and relevant for impact studies. The region studied is located in Saxony (Germany), still, the methodology shown is potentially applicable anywhere in the world.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Highest statistically downscaled spatio‐temporal resolution multivariate ensemble currently available, consisting of 23 projection runs〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉We downscaled precipitation, water vapor pressure, radiation, wind speed, and, maximum, mean and minimum temperature〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The methodology complied to a high degree with the three perfect prognosis assumptions and is scalable to other spatio‐temporal resolutions〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: European Social Fund, Freistaat Sachsen http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004895
    Description: https://rekis.hydro.tu-dresden.de/
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7570247
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7559173
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7558945
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8059248
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8198925
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; climate change ; statistical downscaling ; perfect prognosis ; ERA5 ; CORDEX ; deep learning ; multivariate ensemble
    Language: English
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  • 32
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    Statistical relevance of meteorological ambient conditions and cell attributes for nowcasting the life cycle of convective storms (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-06
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The usually short lifetime of convective storms and their rapid development during unstable weather conditions makes forecasting these storms challenging. It is necessary, therefore, to improve the procedures for estimating the storms' expected life cycles, including the storms' lifetime, size, and intensity development. We present an analysis of the life cycles of convective cells in Germany, focusing on the relevance of the prevailing atmospheric conditions. Using data from the radar‐based cell detection and tracking algorithm KONRAD of the German Weather Service, the life cycles of isolated convective storms are analysed for the summer half‐years from 2011 to 2016. In addition, numerous convection‐relevant atmospheric ambient variables (e.g., deep‐layer shear, convective available potential energy, lifted index), which were calculated using high‐resolution COSMO‐EU assimilation analyses (0.0625°), are combined with the life cycles. The statistical analyses of the life cycles reveal that rapid initial area growth supports wider horizontal expansion of a cell in the subsequent development and, indirectly, a longer lifetime. Specifically, the information about the initial horizontal cell area is the most important predictor for the lifetime and expected maximum cell area during the life cycle. However, its predictive skill turns out to be moderate at most, but still considerably higher than the skill of any ambient variable is. Of the latter, measures of midtropospheric mean wind and vertical wind shear are most suitable for distinguishing between convective cells with short lifetime and those with long lifetime. Higher thermal instability is associated with faster initial growth, thus favouring larger and longer living cells. A detailed objective correlation analysis between ambient variables, coupled with analyses discriminating groups of different lifetime and maximum cell area, makes it possible to gain new insights into their statistical connections. The results of this study provide guidance for predictor selection and advancements of nowcasting applications.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Based on a combination of data of the cell tracking algorithm KONRAD of the German Weather Service and COSMO‐EU model analyses for the summer half‐years from 2011 to 2016, statistical relationships between storm attributes (lifetime and maximum horizontal area), and ambient variables as well as the storms' history are quantified. The initial growth of the cell area is a better indicator of the lifetime and maximum area than ambient variables are. Of the latter, measures of the midtropospheric wind and vertical wind shear, in particular, are most suitable for distinguishing between convective cells with short and long lifetimes, whereas higher convective instability favours larger cells. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4505-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4505:qj4505-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Digitales und Verkehr http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100008383
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; convective storms ; life cycle ; multisource data ; nowcasting ; statistics ; weather prediction
    Language: English
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  • 33
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    Radar‐based heavy precipitation events in Germany and associated circulation patterns (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉As projected by multiple climate models, short‐duration heavy precipitation events (SDHPEs) are expected to intensify particularly quickly under the changing climate posing substantial risk to natural and human systems. Yet over the years, SDHPEs have received less scientific attention than long‐duration heavy precipitation events (LDHPEs), mainly due to the limitations of measurement systems. Our aim is to provide insight into spatial and temporal variability of SDHPEs detected by the radar network of the 〈italic toggle="no"〉Deutscher Wetterdienst〈/italic〉 (DWD) in Germany from 2001 to 2020 as well as to explore their links to circulation patterns (CPs). The study is based on the Catalogue of Radar‐based heavy Rainfall Events (CatRaRE) generated using reprocessed gauge‐adjusted data of the DWD radar network as well as a new numerical method for classifying CPs over Central Europe called “〈italic toggle="no"〉Großwetterlagen〈/italic〉 for Reanalyses” (GWL‐REA). The results have demonstrated that SDHPEs, which are defined based on either locally valid precipitation values with a return period of 5 years (CatRaRE T5) or absolute precipitation values equal to DWD Warning Level 3 (CatRaRE W3), are common phenomena occurring most frequently in the afternoon hours of the summer season. They constitute up to 90% of all heavy precipitation events included in the catalogues covering relatively small areas—the median area of SDHPEs ranges from 22 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE T5) to 24 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE W3), while the median area of LDHPEs ranges from 175 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE W3) to 184 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE T5). As compared to LDHPEs, SDHPEs are generated by a wider spectrum of circulation conditions, including not only cyclonic but also anticyclonic CPs. In the warm season, the anticyclonic CPs, often accompanied by air mass advection from the south, can induce high thermal instability leading to the development of relatively small, isolated convective cells, which often cannot be captured by rain gauge stations.〈/p〉
    Description: Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV)
    Description: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/catrare/catrare.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; CatRaRE ; circulation patterns ; GWL‐REA ; heavy precipitation events ; long‐duration precipitation ; radar data ; short‐duration precipitation
    Language: English
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    Northern Hemisphere Summer Insolation and Ice Volume Driven Variations in Hydrological Environment in Southwest China (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The interpretation of stalagmite δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O in terms of reflecting Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation is still elusive. Here, we present high‐resolution stalagmite trace element ratios (X/Ca, X = Mg, Sr, Ba) records from southwest China covering 116.09 to 4.07 ka BP. δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O, δ〈sup〉13〈/sup〉C, and X/Ca values exhibit clear precessional cycles, with δ〈sup〉18〈/sup〉O values reflecting ASM circulation/intensity, while X/Ca ratios capture local precipitation or evapotranspiration variations. Our results show that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) is the main driver of ASM intensity and precipitation phase variation, but global ice volume modulates the response magnitude of summer precipitation to insolation. During the Last Glacial Maximum, high ice volumes caused significant monsoon precipitation to decrease. In contrast to modern observations of the tripolar distribution of precipitation in China, our record is consistent with paleo‐precipitation records in southern and northern China.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: While it is well known that global changes have led to variations in the intensity and spatial distribution of Asian monsoon precipitation, the mechanisms behind this are not well understood. Paleoclimate records are essential for revealing the drivers behind monsoon variation. However, speleothem records from the Asian monsoon region rarely provide direct information on the amount of rainfall. Here we report on multiple indicator data sets from a stalagmite in southwestern China. It could help explore the variation of monsoon precipitation over the last ∼100,000 years. We find that the increase/decrease of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation controls the increase/decrease of Asian summer monsoon rainfall. In addition, global ice volume moderates the magnitude of rainfall response to insolation, and precipitation decreases significantly during high ice volume periods. Based on the present paleo‐precipitation records evidence, the existence of the spatial pattern of increasing/decreasing rainfall in central China corresponding to decreasing/increasing rainfall in northern and southern China remains ambiguous on the orbital scales, although the feature has been captured by some of the model simulations.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Stalagmite trace elements are indicators of regional hydrological environmental variations in Southwestern China〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and global ice volume modulate the phase and amplitude variations of regional hydrological environment〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The meridional tripolar spatial pattern of precipitation in monsoon region in China on the orbital scale remains ambiguous〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: German Science Grant
    Description: Structure and Innovation Fund of the Region of Baden Württemberg
    Description: China Scholarship Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543
    Description: National Nature Science Foundation of China
    Description: Yunnan Fundamental Research Projects
    Description: Young and Middle‐age Academic and Technical Leader in Yunnan Province
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10072475
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; stalagmite ; trace elements ; Asian summer monsoon ; Northern Hemisphere summer insolation ; global ice volume ; regional hydrological environment
    Language: English
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  • 35
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    Assessing Volcanic Controls on Miocene Climate Change (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-25
    Description: The Miocene period saw substantially warmer Earth surface temperatures than today, particularly during a period of global warming called the Mid Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO; ∼17–15 Ma). However, the long‐term drivers of Miocene climate remain poorly understood. By using a new continuous climate‐biogeochemical model (SCION), we can investigate the interaction between volcanism, climate and biogeochemical cycles through the Miocene. We identify high tectonic CO2 degassing rates and further emissions associated with the emplacement of the Columbia River Basalt Group as the primary driver of the background warmth and the MMCO respectively. We also find that enhanced weathering of the basaltic terrane and input of explosive volcanic ash to the oceans are not sufficient to drive the immediate cooling following the MMCO and suggest that another mechanism, perhaps the change in ocean chemistry due to massive evaporite deposition, was responsible.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The Miocene period was much warmer than today, with the Mid Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO, roughly 17–15 million years ago) especially warm. Due to the high surface temperatures, comparisons to projected climatic conditions as a result of anthropogenic climate change have been drawn. However, the drivers of climate during the Miocene are not well understood. By using a new type of climate model, we investigate the impact volcanic eruptions had on the period, and link the extreme warmth of the MMCO with greenhouse gas release from the eruption of the Columbia River Basalts Group (CRBG). We find weathering of the CRBG does not explain the cooling at the end of the MMCO, and so discuss other potential explanations such as evaporite deposition.
    Description: Key Points: A new climate‐biogeochemical model allows investigation of drivers of climate change in the Miocene. Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) degassing is sufficient to have caused the Mid Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO). Weathering of CRBG insufficient to drive cooling after the MMCO. This may be linked to evaporite deposition and changes to marine chemistry.
    Description: UK Natural Environment Research Council
    Description: French Research Agency (ANR)
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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  • 36
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    Investigating the Basal Shear Zone of the Submarine Tuaheni Landslide Complex, New Zealand: A Core‐Log‐Seismic Integration Study (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: Although submarine landslides have been studied for decades, a persistent challenge is the integration of diverse geoscientific datasets to characterize failure processes. We present a core‐log‐seismic integration study of the Tuaheni Landslide Complex to investigate intact sediments beneath the undeformed seafloor as well as post‐failure landslide deposits. Beneath the undeformed seafloor are coherent reflections underlain by a weakly‐reflective and chaotic seismic unit. This chaotic unit is characterized by variable shear strength that correlates with density fluctuations. The basal shear zone of the Tuaheni landslide likely exploited one (or more) of the low shear strength intervals. Within the landslide deposits is a widespread “Intra‐debris Reflector”, previously interpreted as the landslide's basal shear zone. This reflector is a subtle impedance drop around the boundary between upper and lower landslide units. However, there is no pronounced shear strength change across this horizon. Rather, there is a pronounced reduction in shear strength ∼10–15 m above the Intra‐debris Reflector that presumably represents an induced weak layer that developed during failure. Free gas accumulates beneath some regions of the landslide and is widespread deeper in the sedimentary sequence, suggesting that free gas may have played a role in pre‐conditioning the slope to failure. Additional pre‐conditioning or failure triggers could have been seismic shaking and associated transient fluid pressure. Our study underscores the importance of detailed core‐log‐seismic integration approaches for investigating basal shear zone development in submarine landslides.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Submarine landslides move enormous amounts of sediment across the seafloor and have the potential to generate damaging tsunamis. To understand how submarine landslides develop, we need to be able to image and sample beneath the seafloor in regions where landslides have occurred. To image beneath the seafloor we generate sound waves in the ocean and record reflections from those waves, enabling us to produce “seismic images” of sediment layers and structures beneath the seafloor. We then use scientific drilling to sample the sediment layers and measure physical properties. In this study, we combine seismic images and drilling results to investigate a submarine landslide east of New Zealand's North Island. Drilling next to the landslide revealed a ∼25 m‐thick layer of sediment (from ∼75–95 m below the seafloor) that has strong variations in sediment strength and density. We infer that intervals of relatively low strength within this layer developed into the main sliding surface of the landslide. Additionally, results from within the landslide suggest that the process of landslide emplacement has induced a zone of weak sediments closer to the seafloor. Our study demonstrates how combining seismic images and drilling data helps to understand submarine landslide processes.
    Description: Key Points: We integrate scientific drilling data with seismic reflection data to investigate the submarine Tuaheni Landslide Complex. Basal shear zone of the landslide likely exploited a relatively low shear strength interval within an older (buried) mass transport deposit. Landslide emplacement seems to have induced an additional weak zone that is shallower than the interpreted base of the landslide deposit.
    Description: Marsden Fund (Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009193
    Description: European Consortium for Ocean Research Drilling
    Description: International Ocean Drilling Program, Science Support Program
    Description: New Zealand Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.928073
    Keywords: ddc:622.15 ; ddc:551
    Language: English
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  • 37
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    Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in Northern Greenland Dust Concentration Variability During the Last 400 Years (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-09-13
    Description: Statistical analysis of reanalysis and observed data reveals that high dust surface mass concentration in northern Greenland is associated with a Pacific Decadal Oscillation like pattern in its negative phase in the North Pacific as well as with La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific region. The sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific realm resemble the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The associated atmospheric circulation pattern, in the form of a wave‐train from the North Pacific to the Eurasian continent, favors enhanced dust uptake and transport toward the northern Greenland. Similar patterns are associated with a low‐resolution stacked record of five Ca2+ ice cores, that is, ngt03C93.2 (B16), ngt14C93.2 (B18), ngt27C94.2 (B21), GISP2−B, and NEEM‐2011‐S1, from northern Greenland, a proxy for regional dust concentration, during the last 400 years. We argue that northern Greenland ice core dust records could be used as proxies for the IPO and related teleconnections.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Observational and modeling studies show that, during the observational period, interannual to multidecadal dust concentration variability is related to the dominant modes of climate variability at these time scales. Here we show that Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) signal is robustly recorded in low‐resolution dust ice core records from the northern Greenland during the last 400 years. We argue that northern Greenland ice core dust records could be used to put the IPO activity and related teleconnections during the observational period into a long‐term perspective.
    Description: Key Points: Northern Greenland dust concentration variability shows global teleconnections during the instrumental period. The most stable pattern associated with northern Greenland ice core dust variability is the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Northern Greenland ice core dust records could be used as a complementary source of information about IPO during the past.
    Description: Changing Earth—Sustaining our Future
    Description: Helmholtz Climate Initiative—REKLIM
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.57092
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.57294
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.107285
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.55536
    Description: https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets?project=MERRA-2
    Description: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cobe.html
    Description: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV2c.html
    Description: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/33092
    Description: https://www.wdc-climate.de/ui/entry?acronym=EKF400_v2.0
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; dust concentration ; northern Greenland ; Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation ; ice cores
    Language: English
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  • 38
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    The geodynamic and limnological evolution of Balkan Lake Ohrid, possibly the oldest extant lake in Europe (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-04
    Description: Studies of the upper 447 m of the DEEP site sediment succession from central Lake Ohrid, Balkan Peninsula, North Macedonia and Albania provided important insights into the regional climate history and evolutionary dynamics since permanent lacustrine conditions established at 1.36 million years ago (Ma). This paper focuses on the entire 584‐m‐long DEEP sediment succession and a comparison to a 197‐m‐long sediment succession from the Pestani site ~5 km to the east in the lake, where drilling ended close to the bedrock, to unravel the earliest history of Lake Ohrid and its basin development. 26Al/10Be dating of clasts from the base of the DEEP sediment succession implies that the sedimentation in the modern basin started at c. 2 Ma. Geophysical, sedimentological and micropalaeontological data allow for chronological information to be transposed from the DEEP to the Pestani succession. Fluvial conditions, slack water conditions, peat formation and/or complete desiccation prevailed at the DEEP and Pestani sites until 1.36 and 1.21 Ma, respectively, before a larger lake extended over both sites. Activation of karst aquifers to the east probably by tectonic activity and a potential existence of neighbouring Lake Prespa supported filling of Lake Ohrid. The lake deepened gradually, with a relatively constant vertical displacement rate of ~0.2 mm a−1 between the central and the eastern lateral basin and with greater water depth presumably during interglacial periods. Although the dynamic environment characterized by local processes and the fragmentary chronology of the basal sediment successions from both sites hamper palaeoclimatic significance prior to the existence of a larger lake, the new data provide an unprecedented and detailed picture of the geodynamic evolution of the basin and lake that is Europe’s presumed oldest extant freshwater lake.
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; Balkan Peninsula ; Lake Ohrid ; DEEP sediment succession ; Pestani succession ; evolutionary dynamics ; regional climate history
    Language: English
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  • 39
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    On the Ridging of the South Atlantic Anticyclone Over South Africa: The Impact of Rossby Wave Breaking and of Climate Change (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-16
    Description: Ridging South Atlantic Anticyclones contribute an important amount of precipitation over South Africa. Here, we use a global coupled climate model and the ERA5 reanalysis to separate for the first time ridging highs (RHs) based on whether they occur together with Rossby wave breaking (RWB) or not. We show that the former type of RHs are associated with more precipitation than the latter type. The mean sea level pressure anomalies caused by the two types of RHs are characterized by distinct patterns, leading to differences in the flow of moisture‐laden air onto land. We additionally find that RWB mediates the effect of climate change on RHs during the twenty‐first century. Consequently, RHs occurring without RWB exhibit little change, while those occurring with RWB contribute more precipitation over the southern and less precipitation over the northeastern South Africa in the future.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The high pressure system located above the South Atlantic Ocean occasionally extends eastward over South Africa, leading to winds that blow onshore and carry moisture from the warm waters of the Southwest Indian Ocean to the coast. These events, termed ridging highs (RHs), bring an important contribution to precipitation over the southern and eastern parts of South Africa. Their occurrence is related to the propagation and breaking of atmospheric waves at the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere. This study categorizes RHs based on the behavior of atmospheric waves above and shows that events that are accompanied by wave breaking result in more precipitation over South Africa. In addition, model simulations are used to investigate the impact of climate change during the twenty‐first century on RHs and the associated precipitation. Although the model predicts that in total South Africa will experience drier conditions in the future, RHs contribute to this drying trend only in the northeastern part of the country. In the southern part of South Africa, the model simulates that RHs will bring more precipitation in the future.
    Description: Key Points: Ridging South Atlantic Anticyclones are accompanied by Rossby wave breaking (RWB) aloft in 44% of the cases. Ridging highs that are accompanied by RWB lead to more precipitation over South Africa than those that are not. Ridging highs bring more precipitation over the southern and less precipitation over the northeastern part of South Africa in the future.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Water Research Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004424
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6523956
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6
    Description: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cpc.globalprecip.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; ridging highs ; Rossby wave breaking ; climate change ; climate modeling ; South African precipitation
    Language: English
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  • 40
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    On the representation of atmospheric circulation modes in regional climate models over Western Europe (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-16
    Description: Atmospheric circulation is a key driver of climate variability, and the representation of atmospheric circulation modes in regional climate models (RCMs) can enhance the credibility of regional climate projections. This study examines the representation of large‐scale atmospheric circulation modes in Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 5 RCMs once driven by ERA‐Interim, and by two general circulation models (GCMs). The study region is Western Europe and the circulation modes are classified using the Promax rotated T‐mode principal component analysis. The results indicate that the RCMs can replicate the classified atmospheric modes as obtained from ERA5 reanalysis, though with biases dependent on the data providing the lateral boundary condition and the choice of RCM. When the boundary condition is provided by ERA‐Interim that is more consistent with observations, the simulated map types and the associating time series match well with their counterparts from ERA5. Further, on average, the multi‐model ensemble mean of the analysed RCMs, driven by ERA‐Interim, indicated a slight improvement in the representation of the modes obtained from ERA5. Conversely, when the RCMs are driven by the GCMs that are models without assimilation of observational data, the representation of the atmospheric modes, as obtained from ERA5, is relatively less accurate compared to when the RCMs are driven by ERA‐Interim. This suggests that the biases stem from the GCMs. On average, the representation of the modes was not improved in the multi‐model ensemble mean of the five analysed RCMs driven by either of the GCMs. However, when the best‐performed RCMs were selected on average the ensemble mean indicated a slight improvement. Moreover, the presence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the simulated modes depends also on the lateral boundary conditions. The relationship between the modes and the NAO was replicated only when the RCMs were driven by reanalysis. The results indicate that the forcing model is the main factor in reproducing the atmospheric circulation.
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; general circulation model ; large‐scale atmospheric circulation modes ; multi‐model ensemble ; regional climate model ; Western Europe
    Language: English
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  • 41
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    Understanding summer wind systems over the eastern Mediterranean in a high‐resolution climate simulation (2022)
    Latt, Melissa R. ; Hochman, Assaf ; Caldas‐Alvarez, Alberto ; [et al.]
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-12
    Description: Regional and local wind systems are often complex, particularly near coastal areas with a highly variable orography. Thus, the realistic representation of regional wind systems in weather and climate models is of strong relevance. Here, we evaluate the ability of a 13‐year convection‐permitting climate simulation in reproducing the interaction of several regional summer wind systems over the complex orography in the eastern Mediterranean region. The COSMO‐CLM simulations are driven by hourly ERA‐5 reanalysis and have a spatial resolution of 2.8 and 7.0 km. The simulated near‐surface wind fields are compared with unique very high‐resolution wind observations collected within the “Dead Sea Research Venue” project (DESERVE) and data from the Israel Meteorological Service synop network. The high‐resolution COSMO‐CLM simulations largely reproduce the main characteristics of the regional wind systems (Mediterranean and Dead Sea breeze, slope winds in the Judean Mountains and winds along the Jordan Rift valley), whereas ERA‐5 is only able to represent the Mediterranean Sea breeze. The high‐resolution simulations substantially improve the representation of regional winds, particularly over complex orography. Indeed, the 2.8 km simulation outperforms the 7.0 km run, on 88% of the days. Two mid‐July 2015 case studies show that only the 2.8 simulation can realistically simulate the penetration of the Mediterranean Sea Breeze into the Jordan Rift valley and complex interactions with other wind systems like the Dead Sea breeze. Our results may have profound implications for regional weather and climate prediction since very high‐resolution information seems to be necessary to reproduce the main summertime climatic features in this region. We envisage that such simulations may also be required at other regions with complex orography.
    Description: In this paper we show that COSMO‐CLM regional climate model simulations at 7.0 (CLM‐7.0) and 2.8km (CLM‐2.8) resolution can realistically reproduce near‐surface regional and local wind systems over the complex orography of the eastern Mediterranean as opposite to coarser resolutions (ERA‐5, 31 km). The Mediterranean and local Dead Sea breezes, slope winds over the Judean Mountains, and winds along the Jordan Rift valley are well represented both climatologically and on individual days. CLM‐2.8 captures the small‐scale variability of the wind field better than CLM‐7.0 particularly near the Dead Sea and on 88% of the days CLM‐2.8 represents wind speed even more realistically than CLM‐7.0. image
    Description: German Helmholtz Association (“Changing Earth” program)
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Description: Ministry of Science, Research and Arts
    Description: Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; complex orography ; convection permitting ; COSMO‐CLM ; Dead Sea ; eastern Mediterranean ; grid spacing ; regional climate modelling ; sea breeze
    Language: English
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  • 42
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    Bias correction of daily precipitation for ungauged locations using geostatistical approaches: A case study for the CORDEX‐Africa ensemble (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-14
    Description: Climate model simulations typically exhibit a bias, which can be corrected using statistical approaches. In this study, a geostatistical approach for bias correction of daily precipitation at ungauged locations is presented. The method utilizes a double quantile mapping with dry day correction for future periods. The transfer function of the bias correction for the ungauged locations is established using distribution functions estimated by ordinary kriging with anisotropic variograms. The methodology was applied to the daily precipitation simulations of the entire CORDEX‐Africa ensemble for a study region located in the West African Sudanian Savanna. This ensemble consists of 23 regional climate models (RCM) that were run for three different future scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The evaluation of the approach for a historical 50‐year period (1950–2005) showed that the method can reduce the inherent strong precipitation bias of RCM simulations, thereby reproducing the main climatological features of the observed data. Moreover, the bias correction technique preserves the climate change signal of the uncorrected RCM simulations. However, the ensemble spread is increased due to an overestimation of the rainfall probability of uncorrected RCM simulations. The application of the bias correction method to the future period (2006–2100) revealed that annual precipitation increases for most models in the near (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) with a mean increase of up to 165mm⋅a−1 (18%). An analysis of the monthly and daily time series showed a slightly delayed onset and intensification of the rainy season.
    Description: Adapting water management strategies to future precipitation projected by climate models is associated with high uncertainty in sparsely gauged catchments. Kriging was utilized to estimate distribution parameters for ungauged locations in a West African region to perform a bias correction of the CORDEX‐Africa ensemble. The application of the bias correction method revealed higher annual precipitation amounts and an intensifaction of the rainy season but only little change to the onset of the rainy season.
    Description: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Bonn (BMBF), West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; bias correction ; climate change ; CORDEX‐Africa ; geostatistical approaches ; precipitation ; quantile mapping ; West Africa
    Language: English
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  • 43
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    Identifying Dominant Processes in Time and Space: Time‐Varying Spatial Sensitivity Analysis for a Grid‐Based Nitrate Model (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-14
    Description: Distributed models have been increasingly applied at finer spatiotemporal resolution. However, most diagnostic analyses aggregate performance measures in space or time, which might bias subsequent inferences. Accordingly, this study explores an approach for quantifying the parameter sensitivity in a spatiotemporally explicit way. We applied the Morris method to screen key parameters within four different sampling spaces in a grid‐based model (mHM‐Nitrate) for NO3‐N simulation in a mixed landuse catchment using a 1‐year moving window for each grid. The results showed that an overly wide range of aquatic denitrification rates could mask the sensitivity of the other parameters, leading to their spatial patterns only related to the proximity to outlet. With adjusted parameter space, spatial sensitivity patterns were determined by NO3‐N inputs and hydrological transport capacity, while temporal dynamics were regulated by annual wetness conditions. The relative proportion of parameter sensitivity further indicated the shifts in dominant hydrological/NO3‐N processes between wet and dry years. By identifying not only which parameter(s) is(are) influential, but where and when such influences occur, spatial sensitivity analysis can help evaluate current model parameterization. Given the marked sensitivity in agricultural areas, we suggest that the current NO3‐N parameterization scheme (land use‐dependent) could be further disentangled in these regions (e.g., into croplands with different rotation strategies) but aggregated in non‐agricultural areas; while hydrological parameterization could be resolved into a finer level (from spatially constant to land use‐dependent especially in nutrient‐rich regions). The spatiotemporal sensitivity pattern also highlights NO3‐N transport within soil layers as a focus for future model development.
    Description: Key Points: A diagnostic analysis was conducted to disentangle the parameter sensitivity for NO3‐N simulations in catchment modeling in space and time. Sensitivity differed within sampling spaces, but was controlled spatially by NO3‐N supply/water fluxes while temporally by wetness condition. Analysis suggests finer‐level parameterization needs in arable land, and prioritizes NO3‐N transport in soils for improved conceptualization.
    Description: Chinese Scholarship Council
    Description: Leverhulme Trust http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000275
    Description: Einstein Stiftung Berlin http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006188
    Description: Berlin University Alliance http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100021727
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6497225
    Description: https://fred.igb-berlin.de/data/package/629
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; spatial time‐varying sensitivity analysis ; distributed nitrate modeling
    Language: English
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  • 44
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    Sediment Release in the Benguela Upwelling System Dominates Trace Metal Input to the Shelf and Eastern South Atlantic Ocean (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-21
    Description: Upwelling of subsurface waters injects macronutrients (fixed N, P, and Si) and micronutrient trace metals (TMs) into surface waters supporting elevated primary production in Eastern Boundary Upwelling Regions. The eastern South Atlantic features a highly productive shelf sea transitioning to a low productivity N‐Fe (co)limited open ocean. Whilst a gradient in most TM concentrations is expected in any off‐shelf transect, the factors controlling the magnitude of cross‐shelf TM fluxes are poorly constrained. Here, we present dissolved TM concentrations of Fe, Co, Mn, Cd, Ni, and Cu within the Benguela Upwelling System from the coastal section of the GEOTRACES GA08 cruise. Elevated dissolved Fe, Co, Mn, Cd, Ni, Cu and macronutrient concentrations were observed near shelf sediments. Benthic sources supplied 2.22 ± 0.99 μmol Fe m−2 day−1, 0.05 ± 0.03 μmol Co m−2 day−1, 0.28 ± 0.11 μmol Mn m−2 day−1 and were found to be the dominant source to shallow shelf waters compared to atmospheric depositions. Similarly, off‐shelf transfer was a more important source of TMs to the eastern South Atlantic Ocean compared to atmospheric deposition. Assessment of surface (shelf, upper 200 m) and subsurface (shelf edge, 200–500 m) fluxes of Fe and Co indicated TM fluxes from subsurface were 2–5 times larger than those from surface into the eastern South Atlantic Ocean. Under future conditions of increasing ocean deoxygenation, these fluxes may increase further, potentially contributing to a shift toward more extensive regional limitation of primary production by fixed N availability.
    Description: Key Points: Shelf sediments release redox‐sensitive trace metals (TMs) to overlying oxygen‐depleted waters in the Benguela Upwelling System. Sediment‐derived TMs are upwelled and laterally transported constituting a major source to shelf waters and to the eastern South Atlantic. Subsurface fluxes of dissolved Fe and Co from the shelf edge play an important role in supplying Fe and Co to the eastern South Atlantic.
    Description: China Scholarship Council, CSC http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543
    Description: GEOMAR and German Research Foundation
    Description: German DFG
    Description: German Research Foundation
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.947275
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; dissolved trace metals ; Benguela Upwelling Systems ; fluxes ; Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems Regions
    Language: English
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  • 45
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    Dynamics of Greenhouse Gases (CH4 and CO2) in Meromictic Lake Burgsee, Germany (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-21
    Description: Extraordinary amounts of greenhouse gases can be stored within the monimolimnion of meromictic lakes, that is, in the water body which is excluded from mixing events. Lake Burgsee (Thuringia, Germany) is a shallow (depth 〈5 m) lake with a approximately 24 m deep sinkhole, which is fed by underground brine sources and has formed such a monimolimnion. We investigated the carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in this meromictic lake, from production potentials in the sediment via concentrations in the monimolimnion and mixolimnion to emissions to the atmosphere. In the monimolimnion, we found one of the highest methane concentrations (up to 〉5 mmol L−1) ever reported for a natural freshwater lake, while carbon dioxide concentrations in the water and methane production rates in the sediments were rather ordinary and within the range of holomictic eutrophic lakes. At the thermocline, gas concentrations accumulated to approximately 100 μmol L−1 CH4 and 80–230 μmol L−1 CO2. Estimated fluxes to the atmosphere reached considerable 3.5 mmol CH4 m−2 d−1 and 1.5 mmol CO2 m−2 d−1 above the sinkhole and 0.8 mmol CH4 m−2 d−1 and 0.4 mmol CO2 m−2 d−1 above the near‐by shallow lake center in 2018. Our results demonstrate that lakes in natural brine areas may provide significant storages and releases of greenhouse gases and require further investigation.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In meromictic lakes, the deepest water layer, the monimolimnion, is stagnant and not included in seasonal water circulation. Organic matter continuously sinks down into the oxygen‐free monimolimnion, where it is decomposed into the final gaseous products carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Lake Burgsee is a meromictic shallow (depth 〈5 m), brine‐fed lake with a approximately 24 m deep sinkhole. At the bottom of the narrow sinkhole, salinities are as high as in brackish water and cause a chemical stratification of the water body—a monimolimnion—in approximately 18 m depth. CH4 concentrations above the sediment reach 〉5 mmol L−1, which is more than one order of magnitude higher than at the water surface and among the highest CH4 concentrations found in freshwater lakes worldwide. Further, emissions of CH4 and CO2 from the water to the atmosphere were considerable in 2018, and about four times higher above the sinkhole than above the shallow lake center. These results demonstrate, that lakes in natural brine areas may store and release significant amounts of greenhouse gases and require further investigation.
    Description: Key Points: In the urban meromictic Lake Burgsee, methane production potentials in the sediment are similar to eutrophic holomictic lakes. At its deepest site, it contains one of the highest methane concentrations (〉5 mmol L−1 CH4) ever reported for a natural freshwater lake. Lake Burgsee emits up to 〉3 mmol m−2 d−1 CH4 to the atmosphere above the sinkhole and 〈1 mmol m−2 d−1 CH4 at a near‐by shallow site.
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; meromictic lake ; sinkhole ; salinity ; greenhouse gases ; methane flux ; carbon dioxide
    Language: English
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    Evidence for Secondary Ice Production in Southern Ocean Maritime Boundary Layer Clouds (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-25
    Description: Maritime boundary‐layer clouds over the Southern Ocean (SO) have a large shortwave radiative effect. Yet, climate models have difficulties in representing these clouds and, especially, their phase in this observationally sparse region. This study aims to increase the knowledge of SO cloud phase by presenting in‐situ cloud microphysical observations from the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol, Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES). We investigate the occurrence of ice in summertime marine stratocumulus and cumulus clouds in the temperature range between 6 and −25°C. Our observations show that in ice‐containing clouds, maximum ice number concentrations of up to several hundreds per liter were found. The observed ice crystal concentrations were on average one to two orders of magnitude higher than the simultaneously measured ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations in the temperature range below −10°C and up to five orders of magnitude higher than estimated INP concentrations in the temperature range above −10°C. These results highlight the importance of secondary ice production (SIP) in SO summertime marine boundary‐layer clouds. Evidence for rime splintering was found in the Hallett‐Mossop (HM) temperature range but the exact SIP mechanism active at lower temperatures remains unclear. Finally, instrument simulators were used to assess simulated co‐located cloud ice concentrations and the role of modeled HM rime‐splintering. We found that CAM6 is deficient in simulating number concentrations across the HM temperature range with little sensitivity to the model HM process, which is inconsistent with the aforementioned observational evidence of highly active SIP processes in SO low‐level clouds.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Clouds in the Southern Ocean are important for climate but not well represented in climate models. Observations in this remote region have been rare. This study presents results from a recent airborne campaign that took place in the Southern Ocean where low‐ and mid‐level clouds were investigated by detecting individual cloud particles within the clouds. Although large fraction of the observed clouds did not contain ice crystals, occasionally high amounts of ice crystals were observed that cannot be explained by ice formation on aerosol particles but were result of multiplication of existing ice crystals. We tested the capability of a commonly used climate model to represent the observed ice concentrations and their sensitivity to one ice multiplication process parameterized in the model. These investigations revealed that the in the model the ice multiplication process was not responsible for generation of ice, which is in contradiction with the observations.
    Description: Key Points: Ice concentrations several orders of magnitude higher than ice nucleating particle concentrations were observed. Secondary ice production was believed to be responsible for the observed high ice number concentrations. Comparison with climate model indicated that secondary ice processes are still inadequately represented in the model.
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Description: U.S. Department of Energy http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000015
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: NSF Polar Programs
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; southern ocean ; mixed‐phase clouds ; in‐situ observations ; ice crystals ; secondary ice ; ice nucleating particles
    Language: English
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    Continental Break‐Up Under a Convergent Setting: Insights From P Wave Radial Anisotropy Tomography of the Woodlark Rift in Papua New Guinea (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-05
    Description: To explore the dynamic mechanism of continental rifting within a convergent setting, we determine the first P wave radial anisotropic tomography beneath the Woodlark rift in southeastern Papua New Guinea, which develops within the obliquely colliding zone between the Australian and southwest Pacific plates. The rift zone is depicted as localized low‐velocity anomalies with positive radial anisotropy, which rules out a dominant role of active mantle upwelling in promoting the rift development and favors passive rifting with decompression melting as main processes. Downwelling slab relics in the upper mantle bounding the rift zone are revealed based on observed high‐velocity anomalies and negative radial anisotropy, which may contribute to the ultra‐high pressure rock exhumations and rift initiation. Our observations thus indicate that the Woodlark rift follows a passive model and is mainly driven by slab pull from the northward subduction of the Solomon plate.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The Woodlark rift in Papua New Guinea develops within the shear zone between the Australian and southwest Pacific plates and is one of the youngest and most rapidly extending continental rifts in the world. In this work, we analyze teleseismic P wave arrivals to study both 3‐D velocity and radial anisotropy structures of the upper mantle, offering new evidence to understand rift initiation under a generally convergent setting. Slab remnants in the upper mantle bordering the rift zone are detected and sinking into the deeper mantle. Downwelling of these slab segments may induce small scale return flows in the mantle and contribute to exhumation of the ultra‐high pressure rocks and rift development. Significant low‐velocity anomalies are revealed beneath the rift zone and have consistently positive radial anisotropy, which indicates a dominant strain in the horizontal plane and supports a passive rifting model, where mantle material is brought to shallower depths simply as a result of the extension of the lithosphere and melt is produced due to the lowered melting point at reduced pressure (decompression melting). Tensional stresses transferred from slab pull of the northward Solomon subduction are probably driving the rifting.
    Description: Key Points: P wave radial anisotropic structure beneath the young and highly extended Woodlark rift is constrained from teleseismic tomography. Downwelling of slab relics bordering the rift zone may contribute to ultra‐high pressure rock exhumation and rift development. Slab‐pull drives rift initiation and induces decompression melting in the upper mantle under the rift zone by horizontal stress transfer.
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
    Description: National Science Foundation (NSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Description: MEXT | Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001691
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung (Humboldt‐Stiftung) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156
    Description: https://doi.org/10.7914/SN/XD_1999
    Description: https://doi.org/10.7914/SN/ZN_2010
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; Woodlark rift ; radial anisotropy ; decompression melting ; slab‐pull ; slab downwelling ; ultra‐high pressure rock
    Language: English
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    The Synergy of Data From Profiling Floats, Machine Learning and Numerical Modeling: Case of the Black Sea Euphotic Zone (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-05
    Description: Data from profiling floats in the Black Sea revealed complex temporal and spatial relationships between physical variables and oxygen, chlorophyll and the backscattering coefficient at 700 nm, as well as some limits in understanding the details of biogeochemistry dynamics. To account for different interdependences between physical and biogeochemical properties, a feedforward backpropagation neural network (NN) was used. This NN learns from data recorded by profiling floats and predicts biogeochemical states using physical measurements only. The performance was very high, particularly for oxygen, but it decreased when the NN was applied to older data because the interrelationships between the physical and biogeochemical properties have changed recently. The biogeochemical states reconstructed by the NN using physical data produced by a coupled physical–biogeochemical operational model were better than the biogeochemical outputs of the same coupled model. Therefore, the use of data from profiling floats, physical properties from numerical models and NNs appears to be a powerful approach for reconstructing the 4D dynamics of the euphotic zone. Basin‐wide patterns and temporal variabilities in oxygen, backscattering coefficient and chlorophyll were also analyzed. Of particular interest is the reconstruction of short‐lived biogeochemical features, particularly in coastal anticyclone areas, which are difficult to observe with available floats at the basin scale.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: This study addresses the biogeochemical dynamics of the euphotic layer in the Black Sea. Observations are provided from profiling floats, and the observed biogeochemical parameters include oxygen, the backscattering coefficient at 700 nm and chlorophyll‐a. Data analysis showed complex temporal and spatial relationships between physical and biogeochemical variables and some limits in understanding the details of biogeochemical dynamics. A feedforward backpropagation neural network was developed, which can be considered an input–output mapping in which the neurons combine the input data in such a way that the output can be considered a nonlinear combination of input data. When applied to older data, the reconstruction performance decreases, suggesting a change in the dependency of biogeochemical characteristics on physical drivers caused by known climate change. A comparison with simulations from a coupled operational biogeochemical model shows that the neural network outperforms the numerical model. The newly proposed method, combining data from profiling floats, physical properties from numerical models and a backpropagation neural network, allows us to reconstruct the 4D dynamics of the euphotic layer over the period 2013–2020.
    Description: Key Points: Machine learning helps identify fundamental biogeochemical mechanisms in the Black Sea. A feedforward backpropagation neural network performs better than a coupled physical‐biogeochemical model. Data from profiling floats, physical data from numerical models and machine learning enabled the analysis of 4D biogeochemical dynamics.
    Description: MASRI
    Description: National Roadmap for Scientific Infrastructure
    Description: European Horizon 2020 project DOORS
    Description: https://resources.marine.copernicus.eu/product-detail/BLKSEA_MULTIYEAR_PHY_007_004/INFORMATION
    Description: https://resources.marine.copernicus.eu/product-detail/BLKSEA_REANALYSIS_BIO_007_005/INFORMATION
    Description: http://www.coriolis.eu.org/Data-Products/Data-selection
    Description: https://zenodo.org/record/6860705
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; biogeochemistry ; neural networks ; profiling floats ; euphotic zone
    Language: English
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    Reversals in Temperature‐Precipitation Correlations in the Northern Hemisphere Extratropics During the Holocene (2022)
    Herzschuh, Ulrike ; Böhmer, Thomas ; Li, Chenzhi ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-07
    Description: Future precipitation levels remain uncertain because climate models have struggled to reproduce observed variations in temperature‐precipitation correlations. Our analyses of Holocene proxy‐based temperature‐precipitation correlations and hydrological sensitivities from 2,237 Northern Hemisphere extratropical pollen records reveal a significant latitudinal dependence and temporal variations among the early, middle, and late Holocene. These proxy‐based variations are largely consistent with patterns obtained from transient climate simulations (TraCE21k). While high latitudes and subtropical monsoon areas show mainly stable positive correlations throughout the Holocene, the mid‐latitude pattern is temporally and spatially more variable. In particular, we identified a reversal from positive to negative temperature‐precipitation correlations in the eastern North American and European mid‐latitudes from the early to mid‐Holocene that mainly related to slowed down westerlies and a switch to moisture‐limited convection under a warm climate. Our palaeoevidence of past temperature‐precipitation correlation shifts identifies those regions where simulating past and future precipitation levels might be particularly challenging.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Predicting future precipitation levels reliably is more challenging than predicting temperature change. Accordingly, we need to understand the relationship between temperature and precipitation and its changes in space and time. We used climate proxy‐data derived from 2,237 pollen records from lake sediments and peats from the Northern Hemisphere extratropics for the early, middle, and late Holocene (i.e., 12,000–8,000, 8,000–4,000, 4,000–0 years before present, respectively). Our results reveal a significant latitudinal dependence and temporal variation of the temperature‐precipitation relationship. These proxy‐based variations are largely consistent with patterns obtained from simulations using climate models. While high latitudes and subtropical monsoon areas show mainly stable positive correlations throughout the Holocene (i.e., warm conditions co‐occur with wet conditions), the mid‐latitude pattern is temporally and spatially more variable. In particular, we identified a reversal to negative temperature‐precipitation correlations in the eastern North American and European mid‐latitudes from the early to middle Holocene. We hypothesize that weak westerly circulation, warm climate, and climate‐soil feedbacks limited evaporation and as such reduced convection during the middle Holocene which led to a negative relationship between temperature and precipitation. Our analysis of past temperature‐precipitation correlation shifts identifies regions where past changes in the temperature‐precipitation relationships are variable and thus where predicting precipitation might be particularly challenging in a warming climate.
    Description: Key Points: We analyzed Holocene temperature‐precipitation correlations and hydrological sensitivities using climate proxy (pollen) and model data from Northern Hemisphere extratropics. We found reversals to negative temperature‐precipitation correlations from the cold early Holocene to the warm mid‐Holocene likely related to moisture‐limited convection. Correlations and hydrological sensitivities were mostly stable positive in polar and extratropical monsoon‐areas.
    Description: EC European Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781
    Description: PALMOD
    Description: China Scholarship Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.930512
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5910989
    Description: https://zenodo.org/record/7038402%23.YxBL1uzP3V8
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; ddc:561 ; Holocene ; pollen ; Northern Hemisphere ; temperature-precipation correlations
    Language: English
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    Stochastic Modeling Approach to Identify Uncertainties of Karst Conduit Networks in Carbonate Aquifers (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-07
    Description: The characterization of the karst conduit network is an essential task to understand the complex flow system within karst aquifers. However, this task is challenging and often associated with uncertainty. Equivalent porous media approaches for modeling flow in karst aquifers fall short of capturing the hydraulic effect of individual karst features, while process‐oriented karst evolution models imply major computational efforts. In this study, we apply the Stochastic Karst Simulator (SKS) developed by Borghi et al. (2012) to generate karst conduit networks at a regional scale of a highly karstified carbonate aquifer located in the Eastern Mediterranean region and extensively used for water supply. The SKS generates conduit network geometries reasonably quick, using a mathematical proxy that mimics conduit evolution. The conduit simulation is based on a conceptual model of the genesis of the aquifer, consisting of different karstification phases. The stochastic approach of the algorithm enables us to generate an ensemble of conduit network realizations and to represent the uncertainties of these simulations in a Karst Probability Map. With only soft input information to constrain conduit evolution, multiple equivalent realizations yield similar resulting network geometries, indicating a robust approach. The presented methodology is numerically efficient, and its input can be easily adjusted. Subsequently, the resulting stochastic spatial distribution of conductivities can be employed for the parametrization of regional karst groundwater models.
    Description: Key Points: We statistically generate multiple sets of karst conduit network geometries using input data based on soft information. The resulting Karst Probability Map accounts for uncertainty in the spatial distribution of the karst conduit network. Our approach can assist in the integration of soft information into the parametrization of karst groundwater models.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://doi.org/10.14279/depositonce-16021
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; karst conduit modeling ; stochastic modeling ; structural uncertainty ; karst probability mapping ; groundwater modeling
    Language: English
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    Denitrification‐Driven Transcription and Enzyme Production at the River‐Groundwater Interface: Insights From Reactive‐Transport Modeling (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-06
    Description: Molecular‐biological data and omics tools have increasingly been used to characterize microorganisms responsible for the turnover of reactive compounds in the environment, such as reactive‐nitrogen species in groundwater. While transcripts of functional genes and enzymes are used as measures of microbial activity, it is not yet clear how they are quantitatively related to actual turnover rates under variable environmental conditions. As an example application, we consider the interface between rivers and groundwater which has been identified as a key driver for the turnover of reactive‐nitrogen compounds, that cause eutrophication of rivers and endanger drinking water production from groundwater. In the absence of measured data, we developed a reactive‐transport model for denitrification that simultaneously predicts the distributions of functional‐gene transcripts, enzymes, and reaction rates. Applying the model, we evaluate the response of transcripts and enzymes at the river‐groundwater interface to stable and dynamic hydrogeochemical regimes. While functional‐gene transcripts respond to short‐term (diurnal) fluctuations of substrate availability and oxygen concentrations, enzyme concentrations are stable over such time scales. The presence of functional‐gene transcripts and enzymes globally coincides with the zones of active denitrification. However, transcript and enzyme concentrations do not directly translate into denitrification rates in a quantitative way because of nonlinear effects and hysteresis caused by variable substrate availability and oxygen inhibition. Based on our simulations, we suggest that molecular‐biological data should be combined with aqueous geochemical data, which can typically be obtained at higher spatial and temporal resolution, to parameterize and calibrate reactive‐transport models.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Molecular‐biological tools can detect how many enzymes, functional genes, and gene transcripts (i.e., precursors of enzyme production) associated with a microbial reaction exist in a sample from the environment. Although these measurements contain valuable information about the number of bacteria and how active they are, they do not directly say how quickly a contaminant like nitrate disappears. Nitrate, from agriculture and other sources, threatens groundwater quality and drinking water production. In the process of denitrification, bacteria can remove nitrate by converting it into harmless nitrogen gas using specialized enzymes. The interface between rivers and groundwater is known as a place where denitrification takes place. In this study, we use a computational model to simulate the coupled dynamics of denitrification, bacteria, transcripts, and enzymes when nitrate‐rich groundwater interacts with a nearby river. The simulations yield complex and nonunique relationships between the denitrification rates and the molecular‐biological variables. While functional‐gene transcripts respond to daily fluctuations of environmental conditions, enzyme concentrations and genes are stable over such time scales. High levels of functional‐gene transcripts therefore provide a good qualitative indicator of reactive zones. Quantitative predictions of nitrate turnover, however, will require high‐resolution measurements of the reacting compounds, genes, and transcripts.
    Description: Key Points: We simulate the distributions of functional‐gene transcripts and enzymes related to denitrification at the river‐groundwater interface. Functional‐gene transcripts respond quickly to diurnal fluctuations of substrate and oxygen concentrations. Substrate limitation and oxygen inhibition impede the direct prediction of denitrification rates from transcript or enzyme concentrations.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6584591
    Description: https://gitlab.com/astoeriko/nitrogene
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6584641
    Description: https://gitlab.com/astoeriko/adrpy
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5213947
    Description: https://github.com/aseyboldt/sunode
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; reactive‐transport modeling ; denitrification ; groundwater‐river interface ; functional genes ; transcripts ; molecular biology
    Language: English
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    On the Role of Rheological Memory for Convection‐Driven Plate Reorganizations (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-10
    Description: Understanding the temporal variability of plate tectonics is key to unraveling how mantle convection transports heat, and one critical factor for the formation and evolution of plate boundaries is rheological “memory,” that is, the persistence of weak zones. Here, we analyze the impact of such damage memory in global, oceanic‐lithosphere‐only models of visco‐plastic mantle convection. Self‐consistently‐formed weak zones are found to be reactivated in distinct ways, and convection preferentially selects such damaged zones for new plate boundaries. Reactivation of damage zones increases the frequency of plate reorganizations, and hence reduces the dominant periods of surface heat loss. The inheritance of distributed lithospheric damage thus dominates global surface dynamics over any local boundary stabilizing effects of weakening. In nature, progressive generation of weak zones may thus counteract and perhaps overcome any effects of reduced convective vigor throughout planetary cooling, with implications for the frequency of orogeny and convective transport throughout Wilson cycles.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Understanding how and why the motion of the lithosphere changes over time is important since this is telling us how planets with a plate tectonic style of heat transport evolve by thermo‐chemical mantle convection. One important factor for the evolution of plate boundaries is hysteresis, that is, memory of past deformation. Inherited weak zones, such as sutures, and progressive weakening are well documented in the geological record. Convection with damage shows dynamical behavior that is different from pure plastic failure without memory, or homogenous lithosphere that is being newly broken. We analyze the impact of damage with global, oceanic‐lithosphere‐only models of plate‐like mantle convection. Weak zones that are formed in an initially homogenous material are found to be reactivated subsequently in distinct ways. Within our tectonic system model, convection preferentially selects pre‐damaged zones for new, active plate boundaries. This reactivation increases the frequency of plate reorganizations compared to models without damage, and also changes the time‐dependence of cyclic surface heat loss. In nature, the progressive generation of weak zones over planetary history may counteract and perhaps overcome any effects of reduced convective vigor during cooling. This has implications for the frequency of mountain building and understanding Wilson cycles.
    Description: Key Points: Results from global, plate‐generating convection models with damage. Self‐consistently formed persistent weak zones lead to more frequent plate reorganizations. Accumulation of weak zones might counteract decrease in convective vigor for tectonic variability.
    Description: NSF EAR
    Description: Division of Earth Sciences http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000160
    Description: https://geodynamics.org/resources/citcoms
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6546322
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; plate tectonics ; visco-plastic convection models
    Language: English
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    Imaging the Absorbing Feeding and Eruptive Pathways of Deception Island, Antarctica (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-10
    Description: Deception Island is one of the most active and best‐documented volcanoes in Antarctica. Since its last eruption in 1970, several geophysical surveys have targeted reconstructing its magmatic systems. However, geophysics fails to reconstruct the pathways magma and fluids follow from depth to erupt at the surface. Here, novel data selection strategies and multi‐frequency absorption inversions have been framed in a Geographical Information System, using all available geological (vents and faults distribution), geochemical and geophysical knowledge of the volcano. The result is the detection of these eruptive pathways. The model offers the first image of the magma and associated fluids pathways feed the 1967, 1969, and 1970 eruptions. Results suggest that future ascending paths might lead to active research bases and zones of planned helicopter rescue. The connection between seismic absorption, temperature, and fluid content makes it a promising attribute for detecting and monitoring eruptions at active calderas.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Deception Island is the gateway for tourists to Antarctica and a laboratory to understand ice‐capped volcanoes and their eruptions. While the Island has been the target of many geophysical studies, no clear tomographic model shows how deep eruptive pathways of its last eruptions have reached the surface in the 1960s and 1970s. This is a recurrent topic in volcano geophysics: dikes and fluid migrations develop across structures considered too small to be detected by tomographic techniques. This paper demonstrates that seismic absorption has sufficient sensitivity to temperature and fluid content to detect these pathways. Once integrated within a Geographical Information System with all the information we have on the volcano, the models resolve the feeding systems of these eruptions, from a tectonically deformed deep magma chamber to shallow cold dyke intrusions and fluid migrations still feeding the volcano today. The correlation between seismic absorption, temperature, and fluid content offers a new tool for detecting and monitoring shallow volcanic hazards.
    Description: Key Points: High absorption detects deep eruptive pathways from the caldera center to its rim. Absorption imaging reconstructs shallow pathways of hazardous materials. Seismic absorption is sensitive to thermal anomalies at depth.
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6561124
    Description: https://zenodo.org/badge/latestdoi/493744216
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; seismic absorption ; seismic tomography ; Deception Island ; Volcanology ; remote sensing
    Language: English
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    Numerical Modeling of Structurally Controlled Ore Formation in Magmatic‐Hydrothermal Systems (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-10
    Description: Faults and fractures can be permeable pathways for focused fluid flow in structurally controlled ore‐forming hydrothermal systems. However, quantifying their role in fluid flow on the scale of several kilometers with numerical models typically requires high‐resolution meshes. This study introduces a modified numerical representation of m‐scale fault zones using lower‐dimensional elements (here, one‐dimensional [1D] elements in a 2D domain) to resolve structurally controlled fluid flow with coarser mesh resolutions and apply the method to magmatic‐hydrothermal ore‐forming systems. We modeled horizontal and vertical structure‐controlled magmatic‐hydrothermal deposits to understand the role of permeability and structure connectivity on ore deposition. The simulation results of vertically extended porphyry copper systems show that ore deposition can occur along permeable vertical structures where ascending, overpressured magmatic fluids are cooled by downflowing ambient fluids. Structure permeability and fault location control the distribution of ore grades. In highly permeable structures, the mineralization can span up to 3 km vertically, resulting in heat‐pipe mechanisms that promote the ascent of a magmatic vapor phase to an overlying structurally controlled epithermal system. Simulations for the formation of subhorizontal vein‐type deposits suggest that the major control on fluid flow and metal deposition along horizontal structures is the absence of vertical structures above the injection location but their presence at greater distances. Using a dynamic permeability model mimicking crack‐seal mechanisms within the structures leads to a pulsating behavior of fracture‐controlled hydrothermal systems and prevents the inflow of ambient fluids under overpressured conditions.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Faults and fractures can serve as permeable pathways for focused fluid flow in the subsurface and therefore be essential geological features for the formation of economic mineral deposits. However, quantifying their role in the hydrothermal systems on the scale of several kilometers with numerical models typically requires high‐resolution meshes. This study presents a modified numerical representation of m‐scale fault zones with variable orientations to understand the hydrology of magmatic‐hydrothermal ore‐forming systems. The vertically extended systems simulation results show that ore deposition can occur along permeable vertical structures where ascending magmatic fluids are cooled by downflowing ambient fluids. Structure permeability and fault location can directly control the distribution of ore grades. In contrast, mineralization in horizontal structures requires the absence of vertical structures above the injection location of metal‐bearing magmatic volatiles but their presence at greater distances. Our model also shows how dynamic opening and closing of the structures in response to magmatic degassing can lead to a pulsating behavior and prevent the downflow of ambient fluids.
    Description: Key Points: We describe structurally controlled fluid flow by representing faults and fractures as one‐dimensional line elements within a 2D modeling domain. Vertical structures are efficient pathways for focused fluid flow and formation of high‐grade mineralization. Ore formation in horizontal fractures requires a hydraulic connection to distal vertical fault zones.
    Description: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Helmholtz Recruitment Initiative
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; magmatic‐hydrothermal systems ; ore deposits ; fluid flow ; numerical simulations ; faults and fractures
    Language: English
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    A Combined Cosmogenic Nuclides Approach for Determining the Temperature‐Dependence of Erosion (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-26
    Description: Physical weathering in cold, steep bedrock hillslopes occurs at rates that are thought to depend on temperature, but our ability to quantify the temperature‐dependence of erosion remains limited when integrating over geomorphic timescales. Here, we present results from a 1D numerical model of in‐situ cosmogenic 10Be, 14C, and 3He concentrations that evolve as a function of erosion rate, erosion style, and ground surface temperature. We used the model to explore the suitability of these nuclides for quantifying erosion rates in areas undergoing non‐steady state erosion, as well as the relationship between bedrock temperature, erosion rate, and erosional stochasticity. Our results suggest that even in stochastically eroding settings, 10Be‐derived erosion rates of amalgamated samples can be used to estimate long‐term erosion rates, but infrequent large events can lead to bias. The ratio of 14C to 10Be can be used to evaluate erosional stochasticity, and to determine the offset between an apparent 10Be‐derived erosion rate and the long‐term rate. Finally, the concentration of 3He relative to that of 10Be, and the paleothermometric interpretations derived from it, are unaffected by erosional stochasticity. These findings, discussed in the context of bedrock hillslopes in mountainous regions, indicate that the 10Be‐14C‐3He system in quartz offers a method to evaluate the temperature‐sensitivity of bedrock erosion rates in cold, high‐alpine environments.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: All mountains erode, but not all mountains erode in the same way and at the same rate. In cold mountainous landscapes, temperature is thought to be an important control on erosion. Previous research suggests that rocks fracture by frost most effectively at temperatures between −3°C and −8°C, and that the warming and thawing of permanently frozen ground (permafrost) destabilizes hillslopes and leads to more and larger rockfalls. However, our ability to test these hypotheses is limited, due to difficulties in measuring or estimating erosion rates and linking them with the temperatures that rocks experience. In this paper we present the results of a computer modeling study that tests the suitability of geochemical tools as measures of erosion rate, erosion style, and long‐term bedrock temperature. We find that these geochemical tracers, called cosmogenic nuclides, can be used to determine erosion rates, even in places that are prone to rare rockfalls, together with the long‐term bedrock temperature. They are therefore uniquely suitable for evaluating the link between temperatures and erosion rates in cold bedrock hillslopes over long timescales.
    Description: Key Points: Cosmogenic 10Be, 14C, and 3He is used to determine erosion rates, erosion styles, and bedrock temperatures in cold regions. 14C/10Be ratios of surface samples reflect the depth at which material was previously eroded, allowing for determination of erosion style. 14C/10Be ratios combined with 10Be‐derived erosion rates improve erosion rate estimates in stochastically eroding environments.
    Description: European Research Council Horizon 2020
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.3.3.2022.001
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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    On Timescales and Reversibility of the Ocean's Response to Enhanced Greenland Ice Sheet Melting in Comprehensive Climate Models (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-26
    Description: Warming of the North Atlantic region in climate history often was associated with massive melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To identify the meltwater's impacts and isolate these from internal variability and other global warming factors, we run single‐forcing simulations including small ensembles using three complex climate models differing only in their ocean components. In 200‐year‐long preindustrial climate simulations, we identify robust consequences of abruptly increasing Greenland runoff by 0.05 Sv: sea level rise of 44 ± 10 cm, subpolar North Atlantic surface cooling of 0.7°C, and a moderate AMOC decline of 1.1–2.0 Sv. The latter two emerge in under three decades—and reverse on the same timescale after the perturbation ends in year 100. The ocean translates the step‐change perturbation into a multidecadal‐to‐centennial signature in the deep overturning circulation. In all simulations, internal variability creates notable uncertainty in estimating trends, time of emergence, and duration of the response.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Enhanced melting of Greenland's glaciers is considered to be a major player in past rapid climate transitions and anticipated to soon impact ocean circulation under current global warming. Global warming triggers complex processes and feedbacks, of which greater amounts of meltwater slowing the large‐scale ocean circulation is only one. To better understand the sensitivity of the real but also the model ocean to just this meltwater, we run idealized experiments with up‐to‐date climate models, which use the same atmosphere and land but different ocean components. We find that sea level rise, cooling of the North Atlantic region, and slowing of the ocean circulation are responses common to all models while regional magnitudes of these responses differ considerably. Once we stop adding freshwater, all three models show that surface temperature and ocean circulation recover as quickly (or slowly) as they changed at the beginning of the experiment. Sea level rise is a lasting impact though.
    Description: Key Points: Sudden increase in Greenland freshwater release is turned into century scale change by deep ocean dynamics. Upper ocean responses to moderately enhanced freshwater release from Greenland reverse on the same timescale once release ceases. Ocean model formulation affects regional expressions but basin‐scale responses are robust, so is the timing on decadal to centennial scales.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    The Subducting Slab as a Chromatographic Column: Regimes of Sub‐Solidus Mass Transport as a Function of Lithospheric Hydration State, With Special Reference to the Fate of Carbonate (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-24
    Description: We investigate the chemical budget of subduction zones at sub‐solidus conditions using a thermodynamic‐numerical simulation in which all major rock components are treated as soluble and potentially mobile in aqueous fluids. This new strategy significantly improves the accuracy of predicted fluid‐rock equilibrium compositions in open petrological systems. We show that all slabs release volatiles and nonvolatiles to the mantle wedge, contributing to its refertilization. But some mobile constituents, such as alkali and alumina, may be trapped along layer boundaries or traverse without interaction depending on chemical contrasts between adjacent lithologies. The accumulation of igneous alumina and silica in the limestones of the central‐eastern Pacific slabs drives their decarbonation and is marked by metasomatic garnet growth. Those slabs are also predicted to lose much of their alkalis before sub‐arc depth. Even when they are produced in the altered mafic and ultramafic layers, fluids reach the slab/mantle wedge interface with distinct compositional signatures that are typical of the sedimentary cover. We distinguished supply and transport limited regimes of element subduction by testing the sensitivity of our mass balance to changes in slab hydration state (HS). Transport limited slabs sensitive to HS include notably a hotspot of carbon release to the mantle wedge (e.g., Costa Rica). Finally, we show that the quantitative budgets do depend on the geometry of fluid flows, and on assuming that slabs are mechanically continuous structures, which is questionable. Taken together, these insights will help better constrain the long‐term chemical evolution of the shallow planetary interior, and the thermomechanical behavior of the subduction interface.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Subduction zones return chemical elements from the surface to the deep Earth. But quantifying this transfer has been challenging. Here, we present a model where all major elements are partly mobile in the fluid phase, enabling us to compile a chemical budget for subduction zones in which only fluids mediate mass transport. We identify transport and supply regimes of element subduction as a function of lithospheric hydration state, rock compositions, and slab temperature. We show that the transport of many rock‐forming elements such as SiO2, CaO, and Al2O3, within and out of the slab, modifies rock composition and contributes to the efficiency of slab decarbonation. Our model of subduction fluid and rock compositions has important implications to understand the role of slab‐derived metasomatic fluid in modifying the composition of the mantle wedge over time, the mechanical properties of deeply subducted rocks, and it will inform future investigations for the high‐pressure petrology of rocky planets in general.
    Description: Key Points. Inter dependence of element transfers in subduction zones. Thermodynamics of intra‐slab metasomatism of major elements. Transport‐ and supply limited regimes of carbonate subduction.
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung (Humboldt‐Stiftung) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156
    Description: Branco Weiss Fellowship—Society in Science
    Description: Swiss National Science Foundation
    Description: https://osf.io/y84d2/
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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    Impact of Spreading Rate and Age‐Offset on Oceanic Transform Fault Morphology (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-22
    Description: Oceanic transform faults (OTFs) are an inherent part of seafloor spreading and plate tectonics, whereas the process controlling their morphology remains enigmatic. Here, we systematically quantify variations in transform morphology and their dependence on spreading rate and age‐offset, based on a compilation of shipborne bathymetric data from 94 OTFs at ultraslow‐ to intermediate‐spreading ridges. In general, the length, width and depth of OTFs scale systematically better with age‐offset rather than spreading rate. This observation supports recent geodynamic models proposing that cross‐transform extension scaling with age‐offset, is a key process of transform dynamics. On the global scale, OTFs with larger age‐offsets tend to have longer, wider, and deeper valleys. However, at small age‐offsets (〈5 Myr), scatters in the depth and width of OTFs increase, indicating that small age‐offset OTFs with weak lithospheric strength are easily affected by secondary tectonic processes.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In the past 5 decades, studies on oceanic transform faults (OTFs) have revealed significant complexity in their morphology, which calls for detailed quantitative analysis to study the processes controlling the morphology of OTFs. Using the most complete and advanced compilation of bathymetric data from ultraslow‐ to intermediate‐spreading ridges, we parameterized the morphological characteristics of OTFs and extracted length, width and depth for each transform fault from the compiled bathymetric data. Moreover, correlations between these morphological parameters and related tectonic factors (e.g., spreading rate, age‐offset) were investigated in this study. We find that correlations between morphological features and spreading rate are rather weak. Comparison of correlations suggests that age‐offset scales better with the morphological parameters, along with scatters mostly at small age‐offsets, indicating small‐age‐offset OTFs are unstable due to their weak lithospheric strength. Our observation evidences extensional tectonics at OTFs.
    Description: Key Points: We compiled multibeam bathymetric data of 94 oceanic transform faults (OTFs) to quantify their morphological characteristics. Morphology of OTFs is dominated by age‐offset rather than spreading rate. Transform valleys get systematically deeper and wider with increasing age‐offset, implying extensional tectonics at OTFs.
    Description: China Scholarship Council
    Description: http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4774185
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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    Comparing the performance of high‐resolution global precipitation products across topographic and climatic gradients of Central Asia (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Accurate and reliable precipitation data with high spatial and temporal resolution are essential in studying climate variability, water resources management, and hydrological forecasting. A range of global precipitation data are available to this end, but how well these capture actual precipitation remains unknown, particularly for mountain regions where ground stations are sparse. We examined the performance of three global high‐resolution precipitation products for capturing precipitation over Central Asia, a hotspot of climate change, where reliable precipitation data are particularly scarce. Specifically, we evaluated MSWEP, CHIRPS, and GSMAP against independent gauging stations for the period 1985–2015. Our results show that MSWEP and CHIRPS outperformed GSMAP for wetter periods (i.e., winter and spring) and wetter locations (150–600 mm·year−1), lowlands, and mid‐altitudes (0–3,000 m), and regions dominated by winter and spring precipitation. MSWEP performed best in representing temporal precipitation dynamics and CHIRPS excelled in capturing the volume and distribution of precipitation. All precipitation products poorly estimated precipitation at higher elevations (〉3,000 m), in drier areas (〈150 mm), and in regions characterized by summer precipitation. All products accurately detected dry spells, but their performance decreased for wet spells with increasing precipitation intensity. In sum, we find that CHIRPS and MSWEP provide the most reliable high‐resolution precipitation estimates for Central Asia. However, the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the performance call for a careful selection of a suitable product for local applications considering the prevailing precipitation dynamics, climatic, and topographic conditions.
    Description: We present the first quantitative evaluation of global high‐resolution (below 12 km) precipitation products against independent ground observations over Central Asia. Our results show that MSWEP was best at representing temporal precipitation dynamics, and CHIRPS was most prominent in representing the volume and distribution of precipitation. This is especially the case of wet seasons, altitudes below 3,000 m, and regions dominated by spring and winter precipitation. Our analysis provides key insights on the precipitation products' suitability for local hydrological applications.
    Description: Leibniz‐Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Transformationsökonomien
    Description: Volkswagen Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.
    Description: Key Points: The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the world. Climate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean. Virtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes.
    Description: European Union Horizon 2020
    Description: https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/esgf-liu/
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Noah‐MP With the Generic Crop Growth Model Gecros in the WRF Model: Effects of Dynamic Crop Growth on Land‐Atmosphere Interaction (2022)
    Warrach‐Sagi, K. ; Ingwersen, J. ; Schwitalla, T. ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-17
    Description: In this paper we coupled a crop growth model to the Weather Research and Forecasting model with its land surface model Noah‐MP and demonstrated the influence of the weather driven crop growth on land‐atmosphere (L‐A) feedback. An impact study was performed at the convection permitting scale of 3 km over Germany. While the leaf area index (LAI) in the control simulation was the same for all cropland grid cells, the inclusion of the crop growth model resulted in heterogeneous crop development with higher LAI and stronger seasonality. For the analyses of L‐A coupling, a two‐legged metric was applied based on soil moisture, latent heat flux and convective available potential energy. Weak atmospheric coupling is enhanced by the crop model, the terrestrial coupling determines the regions with the L‐A feedback. The inclusion of the crop model turns regions with no L‐A feedback on this path into regions with strong positive coupling. The number of non‐atmospherically controlled days between April and August is increased by 10–15 days in more than 50% of Germany. Our work shows that this impact results in a reduction of both cold bias and warm biases and thus improves the metrics of distributed added value of the monthly mean temperatures. The study confirms that the simulation of the weather driven annual phenological development of croplands for the regional climate simulations in mid‐latitudes is crucial due to the L‐A feedback processes and the currently observed and expected future change in phenological phases.
    Description: Key Points: Coupling a crop growth model with the Weather and Research Forecasting model significantly improves the simulation of the leaf area index. Land‐atmosphere coupling strength is enhanced by weather dependent crop growth simulation. The distributed added value metric shows a reduction in temperature biases of up to 80% in croplands throughout the season in Germany.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/CDC/grids_germany/daily/Project_TRY/air_temperature_mean/
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6501984
    Description: http://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover/clc-2006/view
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/WRF_NOAH_HWSD_world_TOP_SOILTYP
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    On the evaluation of climate change impact models (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-05
    Description: In‐depth understanding of the potential implications of climate change is required to guide decision‐ and policy‐makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest are needed to create the causal connection between a changing climate and its impact for different sectors. Recent surveys suggest that the primary strategy for validating such models (and hence for justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing the accuracy of model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue that such a comparison is necessary and valuable, but not sufficient to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models. We believe that a complementary, largely observation‐independent, step of model evaluation is needed to ensure more transparency of model behavior and greater robustness of scenario‐based analyses. This step should address the following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity to changing forcing as expected? (3) Do modeled decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout the projection horizon? We believe that global sensitivity analysis, with its ability to investigate a model's response to joint variations of multiple inputs in a structured way, offers a coherent approach to address all four questions comprehensively. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen stakeholder confidence in model projections and, therefore, into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of impact models.
    Description: A comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models combining both observation‐based and response‐based strategies.
    Description: This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling 〉 Knowledge Generation with Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change 〉 Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156
    Description: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Lagrangian Analysis of Moisture Sources of Precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-27
    Description: The moisture sources of precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains, one of the regions with the highest precipitation in Central Asia during 1979–2017 are comprehensively and quantitatively summarized by using a Lagrangian moisture source detection technique. Continental sources provide about 93.2% of the moisture for precipitation in the Tianshan Mountain, while moisture directly from the ocean is very limited, averaging only 6.8%. Central Asia plays a dominant role in providing moisture for all sub‐regions of the Tianshan Mountains. For the Western Tianshan, moisture from April to October comes mainly from Central Asia (41.4%), while moisture from November to March is derived primarily from Western Asia (45.7%). Nearly 13.0% of moisture to precipitation for Eastern Tianshan in summer originates from East and South Asia, and the Siberia region. There is a significant decreasing trend in the moisture contribution of local evaporation and Central Asia in the Eastern Tianshan during winter. The contribution of moisture from Europe to summer precipitation in the Central and Eastern Tianshan and the contribution of the North Atlantic Ocean to summer precipitation in the Northern, Central, and Eastern Tianshan also exhibit a decreasing trend. The largest increase in moisture in Western Tianshan stems from West Asia during extreme winter precipitation months. Europe is also an important contributor to extreme precipitation in the Northern Tianshan. The moisture from East and South Asia and Siberia during extreme precipitation months in both winter and summer is significantly enhanced in the Eastern Tianshan.
    Description: Key Points: Local evaporation and Central Asia play a leading role in providing moisture for all sub‐regions of the Tianshan Mountains. The largest moisture component during the months of extreme winter precipitation for Western Tianshan derives from western Asia. Moisture from East and South Asia and Siberia during extreme precipitation months is significantly enhanced in the Eastern Tianshan.
    Description: China Scholarship Council
    Description: Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin
    Description: https://zenodo.org/record/6451656#.YrrfbqhBwuU
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Stratospheric Moistening After 2000 (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-27
    Description: The significant climate feedback of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) necessitates quantitative estimates of SWV budget changes. Model simulations driven by the newest European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast reanalysis ERA5, satellite observations from the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized data set, Microwave Limb Sounder, and in situ frost point hygrometer observations from Boulder all show substantial and persistent stratospheric moistening after a sharp drop in water vapor at the turn of the millennium. This moistening occurred mainly during 2000–2006 and SWV abundances then remained high over the last decade. We find strong positive trends in the Northern Hemisphere and weak negative trends over the South Pole, mainly during austral winter. Moistening of the tropical stratosphere after 2000 occurred during late boreal winter/spring, reached values of ∼0.2 ppm/decade, was well correlated with a warming of the cold point tropopause by ∼0.4 K/decade and can only be partially attributed to El Nino‐Southern Oscillation and volcanic eruptions.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Water vapor is an effective greenhouse gas. Human‐induced climate change has led to warmer air in the troposphere, which consequently can hold more moisture, thus enhancing the greenhouse effect. The long‐term change in stratospheric water vapor (SWV) is less clear and currently under debate. Using satellite observations, balloon soundings and model simulations, we find an increase of SWV after 2000. This moistening occurred mainly during 2000–2006 and the stratospheric moisture content then remained high over the last decade. The increase of SWV is stronger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the South Pole, a weak decrease was found. Moistening of the tropical stratosphere occurred mainly during late winter and spring, and was in line with warming of the tropical tropopause, the coldest region that separates the troposphere and stratosphere. Natural causes such as volcanic eruptions cannot completely explain this stratospheric moistening.
    Description: Key Points: Stratospheric moistening after 2000 is clearly detectable in ERA5‐driven simulations, satellite and in situ observations. Hemispheric asymmetry is found with strong positive trends in the Northern Hemisphere and weak negative trends over the South Pole. Moistening of the lower tropical stratosphere is only partially caused by El Nino‐Southern Oscillation and volcanic eruptions.
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5067/Aura/MLS/DATA2508
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5067/GLOSSAC-L3-V2.0
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5067/GLOSSAC-L3-V2.0
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    Language: English
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    Role of Poroelasticity During the Early Postseismic Deformation of the 2010 Maule Megathrust Earthquake (2022)
    Peña, Carlos ; Metzger, Sabrina ; Heidbach, Oliver ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-29
    Description: Megathrust earthquakes impose changes of differential stress and pore pressure in the lithosphere‐asthenosphere system that are transiently relaxed during the postseismic period primarily due to afterslip, viscoelastic and poroelastic processes. Especially during the early postseismic phase, however, the relative contribution of these processes to the observed surface deformation is unclear. To investigate this, we use geodetic data collected in the first 48 days following the 2010 Maule earthquake and a poro‐viscoelastic forward model combined with an afterslip inversion. This model approach fits the geodetic data 14% better than a pure elastic model. Particularly near the region of maximum coseismic slip, the predicted surface poroelastic uplift pattern explains well the observations. If poroelasticity is neglected, the spatial afterslip distribution is locally altered by up to ±40%. Moreover, we find that shallow crustal aftershocks mostly occur in regions of increased postseismic pore‐pressure changes, indicating that both processes might be mechanically coupled.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Large earthquakes modify the state of stress and pore pressure in the upper crust and mantle. These changes induce stress relaxation processes and pore pressure diffusion in the postseismic phase. The two main stress relaxation processes are postseismic slip along the rupture plane of the earthquake and viscoelastic deformation in the rock volume. These processes decay with time, but can sustain over several years or decades, respectively. The other process that results in volumetric crustal deformation is poroelasticity due to pore pressure diffusion, which has not been investigated in detail. Using postseismic surface displacement data acquired by radar satellites after the 2010 Maule earthquake, we show that poroelastic deformation may considerably affect the vertical component of the observed geodetic signal during the first months. Poroelastic deformation also has an impact on the estimation of the postseismic slip, which in turn affects the energy stored at the fault plane that is available for the next event. In addition, shallow aftershocks within the continental crust show a good, positive spatial correlation with regions of increased postseismic pore‐pressure changes, suggesting they are linked. These findings are thus important to assess the potential seismic hazard of the segment.
    Description: Key Points: A poro‐viscoelastic deformation model improves the geodetic data misfit by 14% compared to an elastic model that only accounts for afterslip. Poroelastic deformation mainly produces surface uplift and landward displacement patterns on the coastal forearc region. Neglecting poroelastic effects may locally alter the afterslip amplitude by up to ±40% near the region of maximum coseismic slip.
    Description: Helmholtz Association (亥姆霍兹联合会致力) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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    Temporal evolution of headwall erosion rates derived from cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in the medial moraines of Glacier d'Otemma, Switzerland (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: Climate change affects the stability and erosion of high‐alpine rock walls above glaciers (headwalls) that deliver debris to glacier surfaces. Since supraglacial debris in the ablation zone alters the melt behaviour of the underlying ice, the responses of debris‐covered glaciers and of headwalls to climate change may be coupled. In this study, we analyse the beryllium‐10 (10Be)‐cosmogenic nuclide concentration history of glacial headwalls delivering debris to the Glacier d'Otemma in Switzerland. By systematic downglacier‐profile‐sampling of two parallel medial moraines, we assess changes in headwall erosion through time for small, well‐defined debris source areas. We compute apparent headwall erosion rates from 10Be concentrations ([10Be]), measured in 15 amalgamated medial moraine debris samples. To estimate both the additional 10Be production during glacial debris transport and the age of our samples we combine our field‐based data with a simple model that simulates downglacier debris trajectories. Furthermore, we evaluate additional grain size fractions for eight samples to test for stochastic mass wasting effects on [10Be]. Our results indicate that [10Be] along the medial moraines vary systematically with time and consistently for different grain sizes. [10Be] are higher for older debris, closer to the glacier terminus, and lower for younger debris, closer to the glacier head. Computed apparent headwall erosion rates vary between ~0.6 and 10.8 mm yr−1, increasing over a maximum time span of ~200 years towards the present. As ice cover retreats, newly exposed headwall surfaces may become susceptible to enhanced weathering and erosion, expand to lower elevations, and contribute formerly shielded bedrock of likely different [10Be]. Hence, we suggest that recently lower [10Be] reflect the deglaciation of the debris source areas since the end of the Little Ice Age.
    Description: In glacial landscapes, systematic downglacier‐sampling of medial moraine debris holds the potential to assess changes in headwall erosion through time. Cosmogenic beryllium‐10 (10Be) concentrations within the medial moraines of Glacier d'Otemma, Switzerland, broadly increase downglacier and translate into increasing headwall erosion rates towards the present. These trends may reflect processes associated with the exposure of new bedrock surfaces across recently deglaciating source headwalls.
    Description: European Research Council (ERC) H2020‐EU.1.1.
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.3.3.2021.007
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    Language: English
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    Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Alternate Wetting and Drying for Rice Production at National Scale—A Modeling Case Study for the Philippines (2022)
    Kraus, David ; Werner, Christian ; Janz, Baldur ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: Worldwide, rice production contributes about 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector, mainly due to CH4 emissions from continuously flooded fields. Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) is a promising crop technology for mitigating CH4 emissions and reducing the irrigation water currently being applied in many of the world's top rice‐producing countries. However, decreased emissions of CH4 may be partially counterbalanced by increased N2O emissions. In this case study for the Philippines, the national mitigation potential of AWD is explored using the process‐based biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. Simulated mean annual CH4 emissions under conventional rice production for the time period 2000–2011 are estimated as 1,180 ± 163 Gg CH4 yr−1. During the cropping season, this is about +16% higher than a former estimate using emission factors. Scenario simulations of nationwide introduction of AWD in irrigated landscapes suggest a considerable decrease in CH4 emissions by −23%, while N2O emissions are only increased by +8%. Irrespective of field management, at national scale, the radiative forcing of irrigated rice production is always dominated by CH4 (〉95%). The reduction potential of GHG emissions depends on, for example, number of crops per year, residue management, amount of applied irrigation water, and sand content. Seasonal weather conditions also play an important role since the mitigation potential of AWD is almost double as high in dry as compared to wet seasons. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the importance of temporal continuity, considering off‐season emissions and the long‐term development of GHG emissions across multiple years.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Worldwide, rice production contributes to about 10% of total greenhouse gas emissions of the agricultural sector mainly due to CH4 emissions from fields that are continuously flooded. Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) is an alternative cropping practice where fields are irrigated a few days after the disappearance of the ponded water. This study explores the mitigation potential of nationwide introduction of AWD in the Philippines. Results from the application of a process‐based model suggest a considerable decrease in CH4 emissions by −23%. Compared to N2O, CH4 is responsible for more than 95% of the total radiative forcing under conventional or AWD field management.
    Description: Key Points: Nationwide, Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) reduces CH4 emissions by −23%. N2O emissions contribute to less than 5% to the total radiative forcing under conventional or AWD field management. Mitigation of AWD depends on, for example, seasonal weather conditions, cropping intensity, irrigation, residue management, and soil texture.
    Description: DFG
    Description: https://doi.org/10.35097/588
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; ddc:581.7
    Language: English
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    Basin‐scale estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the Mara River, Kenya: Importance of discharge, stream size, and land use/land cover (2022)
    Mwanake, Ricky M. ; Gettel, Gretchen M. ; Ishimwe, Clarisse ; [et al.]
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: Greenhouse gas fluxes (CO2, CH4, and N2O) from African streams and rivers are under‐represented in global datasets, resulting in uncertainties in their contributions to regional and global budgets. We conducted year‐long sampling of 59 sites in a nested‐catchment design in the Mara River, Kenya in which fluxes were quantified and their underlying controls assessed. We estimated annual basin‐scale greenhouse gas emissions from measured in‐stream gas concentrations, modeled gas transfer velocities, and determined the sensitivity of up‐scaling to discharge. Based on the total annual CO2‐equivalent emissions calculated from global warming potentials (GWP), the Mara basin was a net greenhouse gas source (294 ± 35 Gg CO2 eq yr−1). Lower‐order streams (1–3) contributed 81% of the total fluxes, and higher stream orders (4–8) contributed 19%. Cropland‐draining streams also exhibited higher fluxes compared to forested streams. Seasonality in stream discharge affected stream widths (and stream area) and gas exchange rates, strongly influencing the basin‐wide annual flux, which was 10 times higher during the high and medium discharge periods than the low discharge period. The basin‐wide estimate was underestimated by up to 36% if discharge was ignored, and up to 37% for lower stream orders. Future research should therefore include seasonality in stream surface areas in upscaling procedures to better constrain basin‐wide fluxes. Given that agricultural activities are a major factor increasing riverine greenhouse gas fluxes in the study region, increased conversion of forests and agricultural intensification has the possibility of increasing the contribution of the African continent to global greenhouse gas sources.
    Description: Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001655
    Description: IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
    Description: Federal Ministry of Education and Research http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: TERENO Bavarian Alps/ Pre‐Alps Observatory
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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    Deepening the Late Quaternary's Deep Ocean Carbon Mysteries (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: Changes to the carbon content of the deep ocean, the largest reservoir in the surficial carbon cycle, are capable of altering atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and thereby Earth's climate. While the role of the deep ocean's carbon inventory in the last ice age has been thoroughly investigated, comparatively little is known about whether the deep ocean contributed to the change in the pacing and intensity of ice ages around 1 million years ago during the Mid‐Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Qin et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097121) provide new reconstructions of deep ocean carbonate ion saturation, a proxy for carbon content, from the deep Pacific Ocean across the MPT. Intriguingly, their results show that a reduction in deep Pacific carbonate ion saturation across the MPT occurred at different intervals from carbonate ion saturation decline in the deep Atlantic Ocean. These results suggest a more nuanced contribution of whole‐ocean carbon sequestration to the climate changes reconstructed across the MPT.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Earth's periodic ice ages became longer and more intense around 1 million years ago. While the underlying reasons for this climate change remain debated, it is widely understood that the deep ocean may have played an important role by storing the potent greenhouse gas carbon dioxide away from the atmosphere. New research by Qin et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097121) shows that the deep Pacific Ocean did indeed accumulate additional carbon around the time of this million‐year old climate transition. However, the new results also show that Pacific Ocean accumulated carbon over different intervals than the Atlantic Ocean, deepening the mystery around how and why this carbon uptake occurred.
    Description: Key Points: The deep Atlantic and Pacific Oceans accumulated carbon at different intervals during the mid‐Pleistocene transition.
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097121
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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    Variability in the Concentration of Lithium in the Indo‐Pacific Ocean (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: Lithium has limited biological activity and can readily replace aluminium, magnesium and iron ions in aluminosilicates, making it a proxy for the inorganic silicate cycle and its potential link to the carbon cycle. Data from the North Pacific Ocean, tropical Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean and Red Sea suggest that salinity normalized dissolved lithium concentrations vary by up to 2%–3% in the Indo‐Pacific Ocean. The highest lithium concentrations were measured in surface waters of remote North Pacific and Indian Ocean stations that receive relatively high fluxes of dust. The lowest dissolved lithium concentrations were measured just below the surface mixed layer of the stations with highest surface water concentrations, consistent with removal into freshly forming aluminium rich phases and manganese oxides. In the North Pacific, water from depths 〉2,000 m is slightly depleted in lithium compared to the initial composition of Antarctic Bottom Water, likely due to uptake of lithium by authigenically forming aluminosilicates. The results of this study suggest that the residence time of lithium in the ocean may be significantly shorter than calculated from riverine and hydrothermal fluxes.
    Description: Key Points: Li/Na ratios vary by up to 2%–3% in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Authigenic formation of aluminosilicates slightly deplete deep‐water lithium concentrations in the North Pacific. The residence time of lithium in the ocean is 240,000 ± 70,000 years, based on removal from North Pacific deep‐water.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: MoES, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004814
    Description: National Science Foundation USA
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.941888
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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    Contrasting State‐Dependent Effects of Natural Forcing on Global and Local Climate Variability (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: Natural forcing from solar and volcanic activity contributes significantly to climate variability. The post‐eruption cooling of strong volcanic eruptions was hypothesized to have led to millennial‐scale variability during Glacials. Cooling induced by volcanic eruption is potentially weaker in the warmer climate. The underlying question is whether the climatic response to natural forcing is state‐dependent. Here, we quantify the response to natural forcing under Last Glacial and Pre‐Industrial conditions in an ensemble of climate model simulations. We evaluate internal and forced variability on annual to multicentennial scales. The global temperature response reveals no state dependency. Small local differences result mainly from state‐dependent sea ice changes. Variability in forced simulations matches paleoclimate reconstructions significantly better than in unforced scenarios. Considering natural forcing is therefore important for model‐data comparison and future projections.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Climate variability describes the spatial and temporal variations of Earth's climate. Understanding these variations is important for estimating the occurrence of extreme climate events such as droughts. Yet, it is unclear whether climate variability depends on the mean surface temperature of the Earth or not. Here, we investigate the effects of natural forcing from volcanic eruptions and solar activity changes on climate variability. We compare simulations of a past (cold) and present (warm) climate with and without volcanism and solar changes. We find that overall, the climate system responds similarly to natural forcing in the cold and warm state. Small local differences mainly occur where ice can form. To evaluate the simulated variability, we use data from paleoclimate archives, including trees, ice‐cores, and marine sediments. Climate variability from forced simulations agrees better with the temperature variability obtained from data. Natural forcing is therefore critical for reliable simulation of variability in past and future climates.
    Description: Key Points: We present Glacial/Interglacial climate simulations and quantify effects of time‐varying volcanic and solar forcing on climate variability. The mean global and local response to these forcings is similar in Glacial and Interglacial climate, suggesting low state dependency. In both climate states, modeled temperature variance agrees better with palaeoclimate data when volcanic and solar forcing is included.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Heinrich Böll Stiftung (Heinrich Böll Foundation) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009379
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6074747
    Description: https://github.com/paleovar/StateDependency
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6474769
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Ensemble Kalman filter based data assimilation for tropical waves in the MJO skeleton model (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant component of tropical intraseasonal variability, with wide‐reaching impacts even on extratropical weather and climate patterns. However, predicting the MJO is challenging. One reason is the suboptimal state estimates obtained with standard data assimilation (DA) approaches. These are typically based on filtering methods with Gaussian approximations and do not take into account physical properties that are important specifically for the MJO. In this article, a constrained ensemble DA method is applied to study the impact of different physical constraints on the state estimation and prediction of the MJO. The quadratic programming ensemble (QPEns) algorithm utilized extends the standard stochastic ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with specifiable constraints on the updates of all ensemble members. This allows us to recover physically more consistent states and to respect possible associated non‐Gaussian statistics. The study is based on identical twin experiments with an adopted nonlinear model for tropical intraseasonal variability. This so‐called skeleton model succeeds in reproducing the main large‐scale features of the MJO and closely related tropical waves, while keeping adequate simplicity for fast experiments on intraseasonal time‐scales. Conservation laws and other crucial physical properties from the model are examined as constraints in the QPEns. Our results demonstrate an overall improvement in the filtering and forecast skill when the model's total energy is conserved in the initial conditions. The degree of benefit is found to be dependent on the observational setup and the strength of the model's nonlinear dynamics. It is also shown that, even in cases where the statistical error in some waves remains comparable with the stochastic EnKF during the DA stage, their prediction is improved remarkably when using the initial state resulting from the QPEns.
    Description: Unsatisfactory predictions of the MJO are partly due to DA methods that do not respect non‐Gaussian PDFs and the physical properties of the tropical atmosphere. Therefore the QPEns, an algorithm extending a stochastic EnKF with state constraints, is tested here on a simplified model for the MJO and associated tropical waves. Our series of identical twin experiments shows, in particular, that a constraint on the truth's nonlinear total energy improves forecasts statistically and can, in certain situations, even prevent filter divergence. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft : Heisenberg Award (DFG JA1077/4‐1); Transregional Collaborative Research Center SFB / TRR 165 “Waves to Weather” http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Office of Naval Research (ONR) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000006
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Tropical Continents Rainier Than Expected From Geometrical Constraints (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: Abundant rainfall over tropical land masses sustains rich ecosystems, a crucial source of biodiversity and sink of carbon. Here, we use two characteristics of the observed tropical precipitation distribution, its distinctive zonal arrangement and its partitioning between land and ocean, to understand whether land conditions the climate to receive more than its fair share of precipitation as set by the land‐sea distribution. Our analysis demonstrates that it is not possible to explain the tropics‐wide partitioning of precipitation unless one assumes that rain is favored over land. Land receives more than its fair share of precipitation by broadening and letting the tropical rainbelts move more, effectively underpinning a negative feedback between surface water storage and precipitation. In contrast, rain is disfavored over land in climate models. Our findings suggest that the abundance of rainfall that shapes the terrestrial tropical biosphere is more robust to perturbations than models have suggested.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Many ecosystems depend on the presence of a land surface exposed to precipitation to exist and prosper. In contrast to the marine biota, though, the terrestrial biosphere cannot directly tap into an unlimited reservoir of water molecules that can be recycled to support life. Yet, observations indicate that it rains in mean 3 mm day−1 over tropical land and 3 mm day−1 over tropical ocean, giving the surprising impression that precipitation amounts are not altered by the presence of land. Investigating the factors controlling this tropics‐wide partitioning of precipitation, we show that geometrical constraints actually would lead to a precipitation ratio of 0.86, not 1.0, if the presence of land would not matter. Comparing this theoretical value to observations, we find that the land receives more than its fair share of precipitation. This happens by broadening and letting the tropical rainbelt moves more over land. By quantifying the strength of the land control on the tropics‐wide partitioning of precipitation, we can also deduce that a negative feedback exists between evapotranspiration and precipitation. In contrast, repeating the same analysis with climate models reveals a positive feedback, questioning the ability of climate models to simulate regional tropical precipitation changes.
    Description: Key Points: A conceptual model of tropical precipitation is derived to understand the tropics‐wide partitioning of precipitation between land and ocean. The size and location of continent constrain the tropical land‐to‐ocean precipitation ratio to lie between 0.74 and 0.95 with a mean of 0.86. Observed ratios from six data sets are larger than these values, indicating that land receives more than its fair share of precipitation.
    Description: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-1DEC-D
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Using Clustering, Statistical Modeling, and Climate Change Projections to Analyze Recent and Future Region‐Specific Compound Ozone and Temperature Burden Over Europe (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-22
    Description: High ground‐level ozone concentrations and high air temperatures present two health‐relevant natural hazards. The most severe health outcomes are generally associated with concurrent elevated levels of both variables, representing so‐called compound ozone and temperature (o‐t‐) events. These o‐t‐events, their relationship with identified main meteorological and synoptic drivers, as well as ozone and temperature levels themselves and the linkage between both variables, vary temporally and with the location of sites. Due to the serious health burden and its spatiotemporal variations, the analysis of o‐t‐events across the European domain represents the focus of the current work. The main objective is to model and project present and future o‐t‐events, taking region‐specific differences into account. Thus, a division of the European domain into six o‐t‐regions with homogeneous, similar ground‐level ozone and temperature characteristics and patterns built the basis of the study. In order to assess region‐specific main meteorological and synoptic drivers of o‐t‐events, statistical downscaling models were developed for selected representative stations per o‐t‐region. Statistical climate change projections for all central European o‐t‐regions were generated to assess potential frequency shifts of o‐t‐events until the end of the 21st century. The output of eight Earth System Models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project considering SSP245 and SSP370 scenario assumptions was applied. By comparing midcentury (2041–2060) and late century (2081–2100) time slice differences with respect to a historical base period (1995–2014), substantial increases of the health‐relevant compound o‐t‐events were projected across all central European regions.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Compound events with concurrent high levels of ozone, being a major pollutant present in the air near Earth's surface, and of air temperature, have strong negative impacts on the health of humans. In this study, these compound events were investigated under present and future European climate. Six regions of similar ozone and temperature characteristics and patterns were defined. For each region, representative stations being typical examples for the overall region were extracted. Models for these stations were developed and their results analyzed to define factors that highly influence the occurrence of compound ozone and temperature events in each region, for example, mean air temperature or humidity levels. The generated models were later applied to project future frequency shifts of these compound events under climate change in central Europe. As a major result of the study, the future health‐relevant compound ozone and temperature events were projected to occur more frequently in the middle as well as at the end of the 21st century across all central European regions.
    Description: Key Points: A clustering approach based on ground‐level ozone and air temperature leads to a division of Europe into six ozone and temperature regions. Statistical downscaling models identify region‐specific main meteorological and synoptic drivers of compound ozone and temperature events. Climate change projections point to an increase in these compound events until the end of the 21st century in central Europe.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Analytical Solutions for Gravity Changes Caused by Triaxial Volumetric Sources (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-17
    Description: Volcanic crises are often associated with magmatic intrusions or the pressurization of magma chambers of various shapes. These volumetric sources deform the country rocks, changing their density, and cause surface uplift. Both the net mass of intruding magmatic fluids and these deformation effects contribute to surface gravity changes. Thus, to estimate the intrusion mass from gravity changes, the deformation effects must be accounted for. We develop analytical solutions and computer codes for the gravity changes caused by triaxial sources of expansion. This establishes coupled solutions for joint inversions of deformation and gravity changes. Such inversions can constrain both the intrusion mass and the deformation source parameters more accurately.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Volcanic crises are usually associated with magmatic fluids that intrude and deform the host rocks before potentially breaching the Earth's surface. It is important to estimate how much fluid (mass and volume) is on the move. Volume can be determined from the measured surface uplift. Mass can be determined from surface gravity changes. The fluid intrusion increases the mass below the volcano, thereby increasing the gravity and pressurizing the rocks. This dilates parts of the host rock and compresses other parts, changing the rock density and redistributing the rock mass. This causes secondary gravity changes, called deformation‐induced gravity changes. The measured gravity change is always the sum of the mass and deformation‐induced contributions. Here, we develop mathematical equations for the rapid estimation of these deformation‐induced gravity changes caused by arbitrary intrusion shapes. This way we can take the mass contribution apart from the deformation contribution. We show that by using this solution not only the intrusion mass, but also other intrusion parameters, including the volume, depth, and shape can be calculated more accurately.
    Description: Key Points; We develop analytical solutions for gravity changes due to the point Compound Dislocation Model simulating triaxial expansions. Rapid coupled inversions of deformation and gravity changes, accounting for deformation‐induced gravity changes are now possible. For shallow sources, estimation errors in the chamber volume change may lead to large biases in the simulated gravity changes.
    Description: EU Horizon 2020 programme NEWTON‐g project, under the FETOPEN‐ Grant Agreement No.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://volcanodeformation.com/onewebmedia/pCDMgravity.zip
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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    The Arctic Ocean in CMIP6 Models: Biases and Projected Changes in Temperature and Salinity (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-17
    Description: We examine the historical evolution and projected changes in the hydrography of the deep basin of the Arctic Ocean in 23 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The comparison between historical simulations and observational climatology shows that the simulated Atlantic Water (AW) layer is too deep and thick in the majority of models, including the multi‐model mean (MMM). Moreover, the halocline is too fresh in the MMM. Overall our findings indicate that there is no obvious improvement in the representation of the Arctic hydrography in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. The climate change projections reveal that the sub‐Arctic seas are outstanding warming hotspots, causing a strong warming trend in the Arctic AW layer. The MMM temperature increase averaged over the upper 700 m at the end of the 21st century is about 40% and 60% higher in the Arctic Ocean than the global mean in the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Salinity in the upper few hundred meters is projected to decrease in the Arctic deep basin in the MMM. However, the spread in projected salinity changes is large and the tendency toward stronger halocline in the MMM is not simulated by all the models. The identified biases and projection uncertainties call for a concerted effort for major improvements of coupled climate models.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Coupled climate models are crucial tools for understanding and projecting climate change, especially for the Arctic where the climate is changing at unprecedented rates. A cold fresh layer of water (aka halocline) has been protecting sea‐ice at the surface from the warm layer of water (aka Atlantic Water layer) which flows underneath and could potentially accelerate sea ice melting from below. Climate change disturbs this vertical structure by changing the temperature and salinity of the Arctic Ocean (in a process known as Atlantification and Pacification) which may lead to additional sea ice basal melting and accelerate sea ice decline. We examined the simulated temperature and salinity in the Arctic Ocean deep basin in state‐of‐the‐art climate model simulations which provided the basis for the IPCC Assessment Report. We found that although there are persistent inaccuracies in the representation of Arctic temperature and salinity, the Arctic Ocean below 100 m is subject to much stronger warming than the average global ocean. On the other hand, the upper Arctic Ocean salinity is projected to decrease, which on average may strengthen the isolation of sea ice from Atlantic Water heat in the Arctic deep basin area.
    Description: Key Points: A too deep and thick Arctic Atlantic Water layer continues to be a major issue in contemporary climate models contributing to the CMIP6. The Arctic Ocean below the halocline is subject to much stronger warming than the global mean during the 21st century. The multi‐model mean upper ocean salinity is projected to decrease in the future but with high uncertainty.
    Description: European union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme
    Description: German Helmholtz climate initiative REKLIM
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/
    Description: http://psc.apl.washington.edu/nonwp_projects/PHC/Data3.html
    Keywords: ddc:551
    Language: English
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    How close are we to 1.5 degC or 2 degC of global warming? (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    The 2018–2020 Multi‐Year Drought Sets a New Benchmark in Europe (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-28
    Description: During the period 2018–2020, Europe experienced a series of hot and dry weather conditions with significant socioeconomic and environmental consequences. Yet, the extremity of these multi‐year dry conditions is not recognized. Here, we provide a comprehensive spatio‐temporal assessment of the drought hazard over Europe by benchmarking past exceptional events during the period from 1766 to 2020. We identified the 2018–2020 drought event as a new benchmark having an unprecedented intensity that persisted for more than 2 years, exhibiting a mean areal coverage of 35.6% and an average duration of 12.2 months. What makes this event truly exceptional compared with past events is its near‐surface air temperature anomaly reaching +2.8 K, which constitutes a further evidence that the ongoing global warming is exacerbating present drought events. Furthermore, future events based on climate model simulations Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 suggest that Europe should be prepared for events of comparable intensity as the 2018–2020 event but with durations longer than any of those experienced in the last 250 years. Our study thus emphasizes the urgent need for adaption and mitigation strategies to cope with such multi‐year drought events across Europe.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: This manuscript demonstrates that the 2018–2020 multi‐year drought event constitutes a new benchmark in Europe, with an unprecedented level of intensity over the past 250 years. What makes this event truly exceptional compared with past events is its temperature anomaly reaching +2.8 K. This finding provides new evidence that the ongoing global warming exacerbates current drought events. The key message of this study is that the projected future events across the European continent will have a comparable intensity as the 2018–2020 drought but exhibit considerably longer durations than any of those observed during the last 250 years. Our analysis also shows that these exceptional temperature‐enhanced droughts significantly negatively impact commodity crops across Europe.
    Description: Key Points: The 2018–2020 multi‐year drought shows unprecedented level of intensity during the past 250 years. The 2018–2020 event reached record‐breaking +2.8 K temperature anomaly and negatively impacted major crops. Future drought events reach comparable intensity of 2018–2020 but with considerably longer durations.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Grantová Agentura České Republiky (GAČR) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001824
    Description: Helmholtz‐Fonds (Helmholtz‐Fonds e.V.) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013655
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-15
    Description: Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO‐dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi‐model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi‐model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Wintertime temperature in the Northern Hemisphere is regulated by the variations of atmospheric pressure, represented by the so‐called North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO's phase—negative or positive—is associated with the pathways of cold and warm air masses leading to cold or warm winters in Europe. While the NAO phase can be predicted well, predictions of the NAO‐dependent air temperature remain elusive. Specifically, it is challenging to predict the strength of the NAO, the most important requirement for the accurate prediction of wintertime temperature. Here, we improve wintertime temperature prediction by increasing the strength of the predicted NAO. We use observation based autumn Northern Hemisphere ocean and air temperature, as well as ice and snow cover for statistical estimation of the first guess NAO for the upcoming winter. Then, we sub‐select only those simulations from the multi‐model ensemble, which are consistent with our first guess NAO. As a result, based on these selected members, the wintertime temperature prediction is substantially improved over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere.
    Description: Key Points: Amplitude and skill of predicted North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) improve significantly by subsampling of ensemble of existing seasonal prediction systems. Amplified NAO variability leads to significant improvement in predicting the upcoming winter temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
    Description: Climate, Climatic Change, and Society
    Description: Marine Institute grant
    Description: European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme
    Description: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/seasonal-original-single-levels?tab=overview
    Description: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; seasonal prediction ; wintertime temperature anomalies
    Language: English
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    Moderate and Severe Hydrological Droughts in Europe Differ in Their Hydrometeorological Drivers (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-12
    Description: Hydrological extreme events are generated by different sequences of hydrometeorological drivers, the importance of which may vary within the sample of drought events. Here, we investigate how the importance of different hydrometeorological driver sequences varies by event magnitude using a large sample of catchments in Europe. To do so, we develop an automated classification scheme for streamflow drought events. The classification scheme standardizes a previous qualitative drought typology and assigns events to one of eight drought event types—each characterized by a set of single or compounding drivers—using information about seasonality, precipitation deficits, and snow availability. The objective event classification reveals how drought drivers vary not just in space and by season, but also with event magnitude. Specifically, we show that (a) rainfall deficit droughts and cold snow season droughts are the dominant drought event type in Western Europe and Eastern and Northern Europe, respectively; (b) rainfall deficit and cold snow season droughts are important from autumn to spring while snowmelt and wet‐to‐dry season droughts are important in summer; and (c) moderate droughts are mainly driven by rainfall deficits while severe events are mainly driven by snowmelt deficits in colder climates and by streamflow deficits transitioning from the wet to the dry season in warmer climates. These differences in sequences of drought generation mechanisms for severe and moderate events suggest that future changes in hydrometeorological drivers may affect moderate and severe events differently.
    Description: Key Points: We develop a standardized and objective classification scheme for streamflow droughts using hydroclimatic information. The most severe drought events are governed by other processes than moderate events. Moderate droughts are dominated by rainfall deficits and severe droughts by snowmelt deficits or prolonged rainfall deficit droughts.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: EC/H2020/PRIORITY 'Excellent science'/H2020 European Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663
    Description: https://www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN/02_srvcs/21_tmsrs/riverdischarge_node.html
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.887470
    Description: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-land?tab=overview
    Description: http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/77114d4dfdfd4dd39e0e1d99165f27b3
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; drought types ; drought generation ; extremes ; typology ; classification ; streamflow
    Language: English
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    Groundwater Responses to Earth Tides: Evaluation of Analytical Solutions Using Numerical Simulation (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-12
    Description: Harmonic Earth tide components in well water levels have been used to estimate hydraulic and geomechanical subsurface properties. However, the robustness of various methods based on analytical solutions has not been established. First, we review the theory and examine the latest analytical solution used to relate well water levels to Earth tides. Second, we develop and verify a novel numerical model coupling hydraulics and geomechanics to Earth tide strains. Third, we assess subsurface conditions over depth for a range of realistic properties. Fourth, we simulate the well water level response to Earth tide strains within a 2D poroelastic layered aquifer system confined by a 100 m thick aquitard. We find that the non‐linear inversion of analytical solutions to match two observations (amplitudes and phases) to multiple unknown parameters is sensible to the initial guess. We reveal that undrained, confined conditions are necessary for the analytical solution to be valid. This occurs for the dominant M2 frequency at depths 〉50 m and requires specific storage at constant strain of Sϵ ≥ 10−6 m−1, hydraulic conductivity of the aquitard of kl ≤ 5 ⋅ 10−5 ms−1 and aquifer of ka ≥ 10−4 ms−1. We further illustrate that the analytical solution is valid in unconsolidated systems, whereas consolidated systems require additional consideration of the Biot modulus. Overall, a priori knowledge of the subsurface system supports interpretation of the groundwater response. Our results improve understanding of the effect of Earth tides on groundwater systems and its interpretation for subsurface properties.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Earth tide induced strains in the subsurface lead to well water level fluctuations in groundwater monitoring wells. This groundwater response has been interpreted with analytical solutions to estimate aquifer properties. However, analytical solutions are based on simplified assumptions whose accuracy have not yet been tested. We develop a new approach to simulate the influence of Earth tides on groundwater based on fundamental physical principles. We simulate realistic conditions and compare our results to those from analytical solution to determine the hydraulic and subsurface conditions under which simplified interpretations are valid. Our results improve understanding of the effects of Earth tides on groundwater systems and interpretation of subsurface properties from well water levels.
    Description: Key Points: We develop and verify a numerical model for the well water level response to Earth tides. Subsurface property estimation requires undrained and confined conditions occurring at depths 〉50 m. Amplitudes and phases from numerical and analytical solutions systematically diverge reflecting theory simplifications.
    Description: German Research Council
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6950492
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; tidal subsurface analysis ; numerical modeling ; Earth tides
    Language: English
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    Drought Conditions Enhance Groundwater Table Fluctuations Caused by Hydropower Plant Management (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: Management of hydropower plants strongly influences streamflow dynamics and hence the interaction between surface water and groundwater. As dam operations cause variations in river stages, these can result in changes in the groundwater level at multiple temporal scales. In this work, we study the case of an Alpine aquifer, where weekly fluctuations are particularly pronounced. We consider an area with four river reaches differently impacted by reservoir operations and investigate the influence of these rivers on the common aquifer. Using continuous wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis, we show that weekly fluctuations in the groundwater table are particularly pronounced in dry years, in particular in the winter season, although the area of the aquifer impacted by dam operations remains almost unchanged. We thus observe that in Alpine catchments, surface water‐groundwater interaction is sensitive to the conditions determined by a specific hydrological year. We also investigate the influences of the river‐aquifer water fluxes and show that under dry conditions hydropeaking mainly affects their temporal dynamics. Our observations have significant consequences for predicting nutrient and temperature dynamics/regimes in river‐aquifer systems impacted by hydropower plant management.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The operation of hydropower plants affects the water level in the downstream part of the river, which in turn can alter the groundwater level. In this work, we study an Alpine aquifer crossed by rivers differently impacted by hydropower production. We use statistical tools to analyze the interaction between the rivers and the groundwater, and observe that this interaction is sensitive to the conditions of the hydrological year, such as dry periods.
    Description: Key Points: Wavelet power spectrum and coherence analysis is used to study river‐aquifer interactions under dam operations in an Alpine catchment. The impact of reservoir operations on the aquifer is strongest under low flow conditions but the area impacted shows little variation. Under low flow conditions, dam operations considerably influence the frequency of the water exchange between rivers and aquifer.
    Description: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003141
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Consejo Veracruzano de Investigación Científica y Desarrollo Tecnológico
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17632/97jchhz4s8.2
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; surface water‐groundwater interaction ; hydropower ; managed rivers ; groundwater modeling
    Language: English
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    Record summers in Europe: Variations in drought and heavy precipitation during 1901–2018 (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: During the last 20 years some very hot and dry summers affected Europe, resulting in regionally record‐breaking high temperature or low precipitation values. Long‐term changes of such extremely hot and dry summers are of great relevance for our society, as they are connected with manifold negative impacts on human society, natural ecosystems, and diverse economic sectors. Long‐term variations in drought and five record drought summer half years are studied based on 63 stations across Europe with high‐quality precipitation and temperature time series spanning the period 1901–2018. Eight drought indices are deployed to analyse drought intensity, frequency, and duration; four of them purely precipitation‐based and four integrating potential evapotranspiration in the computation. Additionally, three heavy precipitation indices and simultaneous increases in drought and heavy precipitation are studied. The five driest summer half years over Europe are identified (1947, 2018, 2003, 1921, and 1911). They are analysed by aggregating eight drought indices into the aggregated drought evaluation index (ADE) for five subregions. The ADE shows increasing summer drought conditions over most of Europe, except for some stations in northern Europe. The increase in drought conditions during the warm part of the year is particularly pronounced for indices integrating evapotranspiration in their definition. At the same time, the intensity of heavy precipitation events shows a positive trend, as well as an increased contribution to total precipitation. Several stations in central Europe show simultaneously increasing drought conditions and increasing heavy precipitation events. This increases the risks connected with precipitation extremes.
    Description: Drought and heavy precipitation trends are studied for selected stations with long time series. Both extreme events are related to specific impacts on different economic sectors and thus society. Stations that simultaneously show increasing trends in drought and heavy precipitation mainly occur in central Europe. This indicates a probably higher exposure to these risks in central Europe as well as a demand for broader adaptation options in this region.
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; climate indices ; climate variability and change ; dry periods ; mRAI ; WBAI
    Language: English
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    Earthquake Rupture on Multiple Splay Faults and Its Effect on Tsunamis (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-19
    Description: Detailed imaging of accretionary wedges reveals splay fault networks that could pose a significant tsunami hazard. However, the dynamics of multiple splay fault activation during megathrust earthquakes and the consequent effects on tsunami generation are not well understood. We use a 2‐D dynamic rupture model with complex topo‐bathymetry and six curved splay fault geometries constrained from realistic tectonic loading modeled by a geodynamic seismic cycle model with consistent initial stress and strength conditions. We find that all splay faults rupture coseismically. While the largest splay fault slips due to a complex rupture branching process from the megathrust, all other splay faults are activated either top down or bottom up by dynamic stress transfer induced by trapped seismic waves. We ascribe these differences to local non‐optimal fault orientations and variable along‐dip strength excess. Generally, rupture on splay faults is facilitated by their favorable stress orientations and low strength excess as a result of high pore‐fluid pressures. The ensuing tsunami modeled with non‐linear 1‐D shallow water equations consists of one high‐amplitude crest related to rupture on the longest splay fault and a second broader wave packet resulting from slip on the other faults. This results in two episodes of flooding and a larger run‐up distance than the single long‐wavelength (300 km) tsunami sourced by the megathrust‐only rupture. Since splay fault activation is determined by both variable stress and strength conditions and dynamic activation, considering both tectonic and earthquake processes is relevant for understanding tsunamigenesis.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In subduction zones, where one tectonic plate moves beneath another, earthquakes can occur on many different faults. Splay faults are relatively steep faults that branch off the largest fault (the megathrust) in a subduction zone. As they are steeper than the megathrust, the same amount of movement on them could result in more vertical displacement of the seafloor. Therefore, splay faults are thought to play an important role in the generation of tsunamis. Here, we use computer simulations to study if an earthquake can break multiple splay faults at once and how this affects the resulting tsunami. We find that multiple splay faults can indeed fail during a single earthquake due to the stress changes from trapped seismic waves, which promote rupture on splay faults. Rupture on splay faults results in larger seafloor displacements with smaller wavelengths, so the ensuing tsunami is bigger and results in two main flooding episodes at the coast. Our results show that it is important to consider rupture on splay faults when assessing tsunami hazard.
    Description: Key Points: Multiple splay faults can be activated during a single earthquake by megathrust slip and dynamic stress transfer due to trapped waves. Splay fault activation is facilitated by their favorable orientation with respect to the local stress field and their closeness to failure. Long‐term geodynamic stresses and fault geometries affect dynamic splay fault rupture and the subsequent tsunami.
    Description: Volkswagen Foundation (VolkswagenStiftung) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663
    Description: Royal Society (The Royal Society) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000288
    Description: EC | H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (ERC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: National Science Foundation (NSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Description: https://github.com/TUM-I5/SWE
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6969455
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; earthquake ; tsunami ; subduction zone ; dynamic rupture ; splay fault ; numerical modeling
    Language: English
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    Leveraging Governance Performance to Enhance Climate Resilience (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-19
    Description: Enhancing the resilience of complex social‐ecological systems (SES) to climate change requires transformative changes. Yet, there are knowledge gaps on how best to achieve transformation. In this study, we present an approach for assessing governance performance in SES and identifying leverage points to ultimately enhance climate resilience. The approach combines three different methods including a capital approach framework, fuzzy cognitive mapping, and a leverage points analysis. Using a coastal case‐study in Algoa Bay, South Africa, the performance of governance processes contributing to different forms of capital is assessed. Subsequently, leverage points ‐ where a small shift may lead to transformative changes in the system as a whole ‐ are identified based on measures of centrality and performance. Results suggest that a range of leverage points can improve governance performance and therefore climate resilience in the case‐study. Leverage points include improving (a) support from the provincial government; (b) priority given to climate change in the integrated development plan; (c) frequency of collaborations; (d) participation in the implementation of climate action plans; (e) allocation of funding to climate change actions; (f) the overall level of preparedness in terms of staff with relevant expertise; (g) public awareness and understanding of climate change. The approach can also be used to analyze and model the relations and interactions between capitals. The study advances methodological and theoretical knowledge on the identification of leverage points for enabling transformations toward climate resilience and broader sustainability goals in SES.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Climate change has severe impacts on both people and nature. Enhancing the ability to persist and adapt to climate change requires transformative governance of social‐ecological systems. However, more knowledge is required on how to enable such transformations. In this paper, we present an approach to measure the performance of different governance processes, such as decisions and actions for climate change adaptation made by public and governmental organizations. The approach aims to identify key processes, where a small intervention may improve overall performance for climate change adaptation, and therefore transformation. We apply the approach in a real‐world example in Algoa Bay, South Africa. Results suggest that different processes in the case‐study can be changed in order to enhance the ability to persist and adapt to climate change. This includes seven actions: (a) more support from governmental organizations; (b) greater priority given to climate change in relevant policies; (c) increasing the frequency of interactions between organizations; (d) enhancing the participation in the implementation of climate action plans; (e) better allocation of funding to climate change actions; (f) training staff within organizations to enhance their climate expertise; (g) improving public awareness and understanding of climate change.
    Description: Key Points: The study presents an approach for assessing governance performance and identifying leverage points in social‐ecological systems. The approach combines three different methods: a capital approach framework, fuzzy cognitive mapping, and a leverage points analysis. The study advances methodological and theoretical knowledge on how to operationalize transformation toward climate resilience.
    Description: Helmholtz‐Zentrum Hereon
    Description: Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009106
    Description: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20732788
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; social‐ecological systems ; climate change adaptation ; transformation ; leverage points ; coastal governance ; adaptive capacity
    Language: English
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    The Interconnected Magmatic Plumbing System of the Natron Rift (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-20
    Description: Understanding the magmatic plumbing system of rift volcanoes is essential when examining the interplay between magmatic and tectonic forces. Recent seismicity, volcanic activity, magma emplacement, and volatile release make the Natron basin the ideal location to study these processes in the East African Rift System. Here, we present the first high‐resolution tomographic imaging of Oldoinyo Lengai volcano and surrounding volcanic systems using attenuation mapping. High scattering and absorption features reveal fluid‐filled fracture networks below regions of magmatic volatile release at the surface and a close spatial association between carbonatite volcanism and deeply penetrating, fluid‐filled faults. High‐absorption features appear sensitive to fluids and thermal gradients, revealing a central sill complex and connected plumbing system down to the mid‐crust, which links volcanoes and rift segments across the developing magmatic rift.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The interplay between magmatic and tectonic forces during rifting is still debated. While they are a key component of rift development, the complex structures of rifts and melt storage systems scatter and absorb seismic waves passing through them: in turn, this deteriorates the quality of the subsurface images we obtain from them. In this study, we use the loss of energy suffered by seismic waves to image the Natron basin, which hosts extinct volcanoes and the only active natrocarbonatite volcano on Earth, Oldoinyo Lengai. The results identify areas of melt storage and fracture networks that feed volatiles and melt to this volcano. Results suggest that carbonatite melts may ascend through the crust efficiently along deep‐seated faults systems, while silicate melts in the region may be primarily sourced from a separate melt reservoir. This reservoir, which is elongate and oriented oblique to the general trend of the rift, may act as a magmatic transfer zone between two rift segments.
    Description: Key Points: First fine‐scale 3D images reveal an interconnected rift plumbing system using scattering and absorption mapping. High scattering and absorption mark fluid‐filled faults that degas magmatic fluids and act as potential conduits for carbonatite melts. A high absorption melt reservoir feeds eruptions at Oldoinyo Lengai and dike intrusions and acts as a transfer zone between rift segments.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Description: Terrestrial Magmatic Systems
    Description: https://github.com/LucaDeSiena/MuRAT
    Description: https://doi.org/10.14470/4W7564850022
    Description: http://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.20101232
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; rift plumbing system ; attenuation imaging ; magma‐fault interactions ; Oldoinyo Lengai ; Natron Basin
    Language: English
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    Seamless Integration of the Coastal Ocean in Global Marine Carbon Cycle Modeling (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-20
    Description: We present the first global ocean‐biogeochemistry model that uses a telescoping high resolution for an improved representation of coastal carbon dynamics: ICON‐Coast. Based on the unstructured triangular grid topology of the model, we globally apply a grid refinement in the land‐ocean transition zone to better resolve the complex circulation of shallow shelves and marginal seas as well as ocean‐shelf exchange. Moreover, we incorporate tidal currents including bottom drag effects, and extend the parameterizations of the model's biogeochemistry component to account explicitly for key shelf‐specific carbon transformation processes. These comprise sediment resuspension, temperature‐dependent remineralization in the water column and sediment, riverine matter fluxes from land including terrestrial organic carbon, and variable sinking speed of aggregated particulate matter. The combination of regional grid refinement and enhanced process representation enables for the first time a seamless incorporation of the global coastal ocean in model‐based Earth system research. In particular, ICON‐Coast encompasses all coastal areas around the globe within a single, consistent ocean‐biogeochemistry model, thus naturally accounting for two‐way coupling of ocean‐shelf feedback mechanisms at the global scale. The high quality of the model results as well as the efficiency in computational cost and storage requirements proves this strategy a pioneering approach for global high‐resolution modeling. We conclude that ICON‐Coast represents a new tool to deepen our mechanistic understanding of the role of the land‐ocean transition zone in the global carbon cycle, and to narrow related uncertainties in global future projections.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The coastal ocean is an area hardly taken into account by current climate change assessment activities. Yet, its capacity in carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and storage is crucial to be included in a science‐based development of sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Earth system models are powerful tools to investigate the marine carbon cycle of the open ocean. The coastal ocean, however, is poorly represented in global models to date, because of missing key processes controlling coastal carbon dynamics and too coarse spatial resolutions to adequately simulate coastal circulation features. Here, we introduce the first global ocean‐biogeochemistry model with a dedicated representation of the coastal ocean and associated marine carbon dynamics: ICON‐Coast. In this model, we globally apply a higher resolution in the coastal ocean and extend the accounted physical and biogeochemical processes. This approach enables for the first time a consistent, seamless incorporation of the global coastal ocean in model‐based Earth system research. In particular, ICON‐Coast represents a new tool to deepen our understanding about the role of the land‐ocean transition zone in the global climate system, and to narrow related uncertainties in possible and plausible climate futures.
    Description: Key Points: We introduce the first global ocean‐biogeochemistry model with a dedicated representation of coastal carbon dynamics. We globally apply a grid refinement in the coastal ocean to better resolve regional circulation features, including ocean‐shelf exchange. We explicitly incorporate key physical and biogeochemical processes controlling coastal carbon dynamics.
    Description: German Research Foundation, Excellence Strategy EXC 2037 (CLICCS)
    Description: European Union, Horizon2020 Research and Innovation Program (ESM2025)
    Description: German Federal Ministry of Education
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6630352
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; coastal ocean ; global modeling ; marine carbon cycle ; variable‐resolution grid ; ocean‐biogiochemistry ; high‐resolution modeling
    Language: English
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    Spatial and temporal dynamics of water isotopes in the riverine‐marine mixing zone along the German Baltic Sea coast (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: River estuaries are characterized by mixing processes between freshwater discharge and marine water masses. Since the first are depleted in heavier stable isotopes compared with the marine realm, estuaries often show a linear correlation between salinity and water stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H values). In this study, we evaluated spatial and seasonal isotope dynamics along three estuarine lagoon transects, located at the northern German Baltic Sea coast. The data show strong seasonality of isotope values, even at locations located furthest from the river mouths. They further reveal a positive and linear salinity‐isotope correlation in spring, but ‐in two of the three studied transects‐ hyperbolic and partially reverse correlations in summers. We conclude that additional hydrological processes partially overprint the two‐phase mixing correlation during summers: aside from the isotope seasonality of the riverine inflows, the shallow inner lagoons in the studied estuaries are influenced by evaporation processes. In contrast the estuarine outflow regions are under impact of significant salinity and isotope fluctuations of the Baltic Sea. Deciphering those processes is crucial for the understanding of water isotope and salinity dynamics. This is also of relevance in context of ecological studies, for example, when interpreting oxygen and hydrogen isotope data in aquatic organisms that depend on ambient estuarine waters.
    Description: Spatial and seasonal water isotope dynamics were evaluated along three estuarine lagoon transects at the German Baltic Sea coast. Data reveal a positive and linear salinity‐isotope correlation in spring, but partially reverse correlations in summers. The results show that evaporation processes in the shallow inner lagoons and varying Baltic Sea influence in the outer estuary regions are able to overprint the two‐phase mixing correlation between riverine and marine water masses.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.937990
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; δ2H ; δ18O ; Baltic Sea ; bodden ; Rügen ; salinity ; Schlei ; Zingst
    Language: English
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    Teleconnection Patterns of Different El Niño Types Revealed by Climate Network Curvature (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: The diversity of El Niño events is commonly described by two distinct flavors, the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) type. While the remote impacts, that is, teleconnections, of EP and CP events have been studied for different regions individually, a global picture of their structure is still lacking. Here, we use Forman‐Ricci curvature applied on climate networks constructed from surface air temperature data to distinguish regional links from teleconnections. Our results confirm that both El Niño types influence the teleconnection patterns, however, with different spatial manifestations. Our analysis suggests that EP El Niños alter the general circulation which changes the teleconnection structure to primarily tropical teleconnections. In contrast, the teleconnection pattern of CP El Niños show only subtle changes to normal conditions. Moreover, this work identifies the dynamics of the Eastern Pacific as a proxy for the remote impact of both El Niño types.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: El Niño events, characterized by anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Tropical Pacific, come in two flavors; Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types, depending on the longitudinal location of the strongest SST anomalies. Their remote impacts, known as teleconnections, differ. Although there are many studies investigating teleconnections of EP and CP events for individual target regions, a global analysis of the spatial distribution of their teleconnections is still lacking. In this study, we use the theory of complex networks to study EP and CP El Niño teleconnections. We construct “climate networks” from global surface air temperature data and use the notion of “curvature” of a network link to uncover their spatial organization. We show that the most negatively curved links highlight important teleconnection patterns that differ depending on the El Niño type. EP events change the teleconnection structure to the tropics while CP and Normal year conditions reveal teleconnections to all latitudes. Interestingly, the Central Pacific does not show many teleconnections, even during CP El Niño events which we attribute to the varying location of warm water anomalies in the Central Pacific. The Eastern Pacific changes more consistently allowing identifying remote impacts of both El Niños types.
    Description: Key Points: Ricci curvature of boreal winter climate networks reveals long‐range teleconnection structure. Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niños show primarily teleconnections in tropical while Central Pacific El Niños teleconnections on all latitudes. The EP contains robust teleconnections for both El Niño types.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, DFG http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: research
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; ddc:551.6 ; El Niño impacts ; Ricci‐curvature ; El Niño flavors ; climate networks
    Language: English
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    Early Eocene magnetostratigraphy and tectonic evolution of the Xining Basin, NE Tibet (2022)
    Meijer, Niels ; Dupont‐Nivet, Guillaume ; Licht, Alexis ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-14
    Description: The Cenozoic strata of the Xining Basin, NE Tibet, have provided crucial records for understanding the tectonic and palaeo‐environmental evolution of the region. Yet, the age of the lower part of the sedimentary stratigraphy and, consequently, the early tectonic evolution of the basin remain debated. Here, we present the litho‐ and magnetostratigraphy of various early Eocene sections throughout the Xining Basin independently constrained by the U–Pb radiometric age of a carbonate bed. Our study extends the dated stratigraphy down to 53.0 Ma (C24n.1r) and reveals highly variable accumulation rates during the early Eocene ranging from 0.5 to 8 cm/ka. This is in stark contrast to the low but stable accumulation rates (2–3 cm/ka) observed throughout the overlying Palaeogene and Neogene strata. Such a pattern of basin infill is not characteristic of flexural subsidence as previously proposed, but rather supports an extensional origin of the Xining Basin with multiple depocentres, which subsequently coalesced into a more stable and slowly subsiding basin. Whether this extension was related to the far‐field effects of the subducting Pacific Plate or the India–Asia collision remains to be confirmed by future studies.
    Description: European Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000781
    Description: Hessisches Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003495
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; Eocene ; geochronology ; northeast Tibet ; palaeomagnetism ; stratigraphy ; Xining Basin
    Language: English
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    Particle‐Phase Uptake and Chemistry of Highly Oxygenated Organic Molecules (HOMs) From α‐Pinene OH Oxidation (2022)
    Poulain, L. ; Tilgner, A. ; Brüggemann, M. ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-16
    Description: Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) forms a major part of the tropospheric submicron particle mass. Still, the exact formation mechanisms of SOA have remained elusive. It is now admitted that highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) can contribute to a large fraction of SOA formation. In this study, we performed a set of chamber experiments to investigate the SOA formation, and the HOMs uptake and processing directly formed by OH‐radical initiated oxidation of α‐pinene under two different aerosol seed conditions. Numerous HOM compounds were identified using advanced online and offline analytical techniques, and grouped into four classes according to their different uptake behaviors. For the first time, individual HOMs uptake coefficients ranging from 1.1 × 10−2 to 1.5 × 10−1 were experimentally determined and analyzed using a resistance model which considers uptake limitations by individual gas‐ and/or particle‐phase processes. This study demonstrates that the uptake coefficients of HOMs strongly depend on their molar mass and their respective O/C ratio. Results show that aerosol seed composition and phase state affect the initial uptake of HOMs. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that the acidity and/or different seed phase‐state can significantly enhance the subsequent uptake through occurring acidity‐driven reactions reflected in a reactive behavior, particularly under (NH4)HSO4 seed conditions, promoting up to 3 times a higher SOA mass formation including the formation of highly oxidized organosulfates (HOOS). Overall, the present study implies that HOMs and their subsequent chemical processing can play an important role in both the early growth of newly formed particles and SOA formation when particle acidity is high.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Tropospheric organic aerosol (OA) compounds represent a large part of submicron particulate matter. A big fraction of OA is formed from oxidation of emitted gaseous volatile organic compounds such as α‐pinene. Oxidation products are less‐volatile compounds that tend to condense on aerosol particles. Recently identified “highly oxygenated organic molecules” (HOMs) are formed by gas‐phase autoxidation processes and exhibit very low vapor pressures. Therefore, HOMs are expected to efficiently contribute to secondary organic aerosol (SOA). However, up to now, SOA formation potential of HOMs is still not well described because of lacking experimental investigations and analysis. Consequently, this study aims to investigate the mentioned HOMs partitioning and subsequent SOA formation from the OH‐radical initiated oxidation of α‐pinene under both Na2SO4 and (NH4)HSO4 aerosol seed conditions through complex chamber experiments. For the first time, individual HOMs uptake coefficients were determined experimentally. Further investigations demonstrated that the uptake coefficients of HOMs strongly depend on their molar mass, as well as on their respective O/C ratio. Finally, the results show that aerosol acidity and/or phase state significantly enhances the HOMs uptake and promotes up to three times higher SOA mass formation under (NH4)HSO4 seed conditions compared to that under neutral seed conditions.
    Description: Key Points: Uptake coefficients of numerous highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) were experimentally determined for the first time. HOMs uptake and secondary organic aerosol formation were significantly enhanced by acidic (NH4)HSO4 seed. Highly oxidized organosulfates formation were observed under acidic (NH4)HSO4 seed conditions.
    Description: European Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
    Description: https://doi.org/10.25326/FJNF-7224
    Description: https://doi.org/10.25326/KC8N-DY53
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; aerosol study ; highly oxygenated organic molecules
    Language: English
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  • 92
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    Rinikerfeld Palaeolake (Northern Switzerland) – a sedimentary archive of landscape and climate change during the penultimate glacial cycle (2022)
    Gegg, Lukas ; Anselmetti, Flavio S. ; Deplazes, Gaudenz ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: While timing and ice extent of the last glacial maximum are generally well known, the courses of earlier glaciations have remained poorly constrained, with one of the main reasons being the scarcity of sedimentary archives. This study introduces a new palaeolake record from a Mid‐Pleistocene glaciofluvial channel system in the Lower Aare Valley (Northern Switzerland). The record of Rinikerfeld comprises a 〉40 m long succession of Quaternary deposits that are targeted by multi‐method sedimentological analysis. Sedimentary facies together with geochemical and geotechnical parameters, pollen content, as well as luminescence ages allow the reconstruction of the establishment, evolution and infilling of the early Marine Isotope Stage 6‐aged Rinikerfeld Palaeolake. A drastic change in lake sediment composition and structure indicates cessation of the initial glacially derived input, which is explained by landscape modification and drainage rerouting during the Penultimate (Beringen) Glaciation. Geochemical and palynological data further reveal cold, initially periglacial but slightly ameliorating, climate conditions, while the lake was progressively filled up by local runoff, before being buried by periglacial colluvial diamicts, and potentially overridden by ice. It is therefore concluded that the onset of the Beringen Glaciation was an environmentally as well as geomorphically dynamic time period in the Northern Alpine Foreland.
    Description: NATIONALE GENOSSENSCHAFT FÜR DIE LAGERUNG RADIOAKTIVER ABFÄLLE
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; Northern Alpine foreland ; palaeolake ; penultimate glaciation ; periglacial lake ; sedimentary archive
    Language: English
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    Riparian Microtopography Affects Event‐Driven Stream DOC Concentrations and DOM Quality in a Forested Headwater Catchment (2022)
    Blaurock, Katharina ; Garthen, Phil ; da Silva, Maria P. ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: The transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the soils to inland waters plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. Widespread increases in DOC concentrations have been observed in surface waters over the last few decades, affecting carbon balances, ecosystem functioning and drinking water treatment. However, the primary hydrological controls on DOC mobilization are still uncertain. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of microtopography in the riparian zone for DOC export and DOM quality. DOC concentration and DOM quality in the shallow groundwater of a riparian zone and in streamflow in a forested headwater catchment was investigated using fluorescence and absorbance characteristics. We found higher DOC concentrations with a higher aromaticity in the microtopographical depressions, which were influenced by highly dynamic shallow groundwater levels, than in the flat forest soil. As a result of the frequent wet‐dry cycles in the upper soil layers, aromatic DOC accumulated in the shallow groundwater within and below the microtopographical depressions. Rising groundwater levels during precipitation events led to the connection of the microtopographical depressions to the stream, resulting in a change toward more aromatic DOC in the stream. Increasing stream DOC concentrations were accompanied by increasing concentrations of iron and aluminum, suggesting the coupled release of these metals with DOC from the riparian zone. Our results highlight the importance of the interplay between microtopography and groundwater level dynamics in the riparian zone for DOC export from headwater catchments.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is the result of the continuous breakdown of organic material, such as leaves. It accumulates in the soil and is transported to streams mainly during precipitation events. In this study, we analyzed the shallow groundwater of two differing sites in the Bavarian Forest National Park. Both sites were located close to the stream, but one was characterized by typical forest soil and one by small ponds, which were occasionally filled with water. The site with ponds showed much higher DOC concentrations and the DOC was chemically different from the other site. During a precipitation event, we observed a shift in chemical composition of stream water parameters toward the chemical characteristics found at the site with ponds. Therefore, we conclude that the ponds contribute substantially to DOC mobilization, once they fill with water and get connected to the stream.
    Description: Key Points: This study found small‐scale differences in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and dissolved organic matter (DOM) quality in the riparian zone. Microtopographical depressions were characterized by high DOC concentrations and aromatic DOC. In‐stream DOC concentrations and DOM quality during a precipitation event resembled shallow groundwater below microtopographical depressions.
    Description: Stifterverband http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008384
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: Rudolf and Helene Glaser Foundation
    Description: European Regional Development Funds
    Description: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.19086455
    Description: https://doi.org/10.48758/ufz.12908
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; dissolved organic carbon ; hydrology ; microtopography ; DOM quality
    Language: English
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    Fluvial and permafrost history of the lower Lena River, north‐eastern Siberia, over late Quaternary time (2022)
    Schwamborn, Georg ; Schirrmeister, Lutz ; Mohammadi, Ali ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-18
    Description: Arctic warming and permafrost thaw visibly expose changes in the landscape of the Lena River delta, the largest Arctic delta. Determining the past and modern river regime of thick deltaic deposits shaping the Lena River mouth in north‐eastern Siberia is critical for understanding the history of delta formation and carbon sequestration. Using a 65 m long sediment core from the delta apex a set of sedimentological techniques is applied to aid in reconstructing the Lena River history. The analysis includes: (i) grain‐size measurements and the determination of the bedload composition; (ii) X‐ray fluorescence, X‐ray diffractometry, and magnetic susceptibility measurements and heavy mineral analysis for tracking mineral change; (iii) pH, electrical conductivity, ionic concentrations, and the δ〈sub〉18〈/sub〉O and δD stable isotope composition from ground ice for reconstructing permafrost formation. In addition; (iv) total and dissolved organic carbon is assessed. Chronology is based on; (vi) radiocarbon dating of organic material (accelerator mass spectrometry and conventional) and is complemented by two infrared – optically stimulated luminescence dates. The record stretches back approximately to Marine Isotope Stage 7. It holds periods from traction, over saltation, to suspension load sedimentation. Minerogenic signals do not indicate provenance change over time. They rather reflect the change from high energy to a lower energy regime after Last Glacial Maximum time parallel to the fining‐up grain‐size trend. A prominent minimum in the ground ice stable isotope record at early Holocene highlights that a river arm migration and an associated refreeze of the underlying river talik has altered the isotopic composition at that time. Fluvial re‐routing might be explained by internal dynamics in the Lena River lowland or due to a tectonic movement, since the study area is placed in a zone of seismic activity. At the southern Laptev Sea margin, onshore continental compressional patterns are bordering offshore extensional normal faults.
    Description: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.945355
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; Lena River ; north‐eastern Siberia ; palaeoenvironment ; permafrost ; Quaternary
    Language: English
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    Quantifying Ice‐Sheet Derived Lead (Pb) Fluxes to the Ocean; A Case Study at Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-17
    Description: Concentrations of the toxic element lead (Pb) are elevated in seawater due to historical emissions. While anthropogenic atmospheric emissions are the dominant source of dissolved Pb (dPb) to the Atlantic Ocean, evidence is emerging of a natural source associated with subglacial discharge into the ocean but this has yet to be constrained around Greenland. Here, we show subglacial discharge from the cavity underneath Nioghalvfjerdsbræ floating ice tongue, is a previously unrecognized source of dPb to the NE Greenland Shelf. Contrasting cavity‐inflowing and cavity‐outflowing waters, we constrain the associated net‐dPb flux as 2.2 ± 1.4 Mg·yr−1, of which ∼90% originates from dissolution of glacial bedrock and cavity sediments. We propose that the retreat of the floating ice tongue, the ongoing retreat of many glaciers on Greenland, associated shifts in sediment dynamics, and enhanced meltwater discharges into shelf waters may result in pronounced changes, possibly increases, in net‐dPb fluxes to coastal waters.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Lead (Pb) is a toxic element. Hundreds of thousands of tons have historically been emitted into the atmosphere through use of leaded gasoline, ore‐smelting and coal‐combustion which led to large‐scale deposition of Pb into the ocean and onto the Greenland Ice Sheet. Since the phase‐out of leaded gasoline, concentrations of dissolved Pb in the surface ocean have declined, increasing the relative importance of other, natural sources of Pb to the marine environment. In 2016, we conducted a survey near Nioghalvfjerdsbræ, one of Greenland’s largest marine‐terminating glaciers, to investigate if Greenland Ice Sheet discharge is a source of Pb to the Northeast Greenland Shelf. We observed elevated dissolved Pb concentrations at intermediate depths within a ⁓60 km radius downstream of the Nioghalvfjerdsbræ terminus. The Pb enrichment originates from underneath the glacier’s floating ice tongue. Lead sources underneath Nioghalvfjerdsbræ likely include Pb from eroded bedrock and exchange with fjord sediments. Our calculations suggest that Nioghalvfjerdsbræ dissolved Pb discharge is comparable to that from small Arctic rivers. Given the widespread occurance of Pb‐rich minerals across Greenland, observed increases in meltwater discharge and the retreat of marine‐terminating glaciers could increase dPb supply to Greenlandic shelf regions.
    Description: Key Points: Helium and neon show strong evidence for a subglacial source of Pb discharging onto the NE Greenland Shelf. Contrasting inflowing and outflowing waters beneath the floating ice tongue of Nioghalvfjerdsbræ shows a 2‐3‐fold dPb enrichment. The dissolved Pb flux from Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (2.2 ± 1.4 Mg·yr−1) is comparable to small Arctic rivers, with ∼90% of a sedimentary origin.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005074
    Description: Swiss Polar Foundation
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.871028
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.871030
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.879197
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.905347
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.933431
    Description: https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.931336
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-543-2016
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; Greenland ice sheet ; Arctic ; marine‐terminating glacier ; Nioghalvfjerdsbrae ; lead fluxes ; GEOTRACES
    Language: English
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    Validation of the Aeolus L2B Rayleigh winds and ECMWF short‐range forecasts in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using Loon super pressure balloon observations (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-03
    Description: The novel Aeolus satellite, which carries the first Doppler wind lidar providing profiles of horizontal line‐of‐sight (HLOS) winds, addresses a significant gap in direct wind observations in the global observing system. The gap is particularly critical in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). This article validates the Aeolus Rayleigh–clear wind product and short‐range forecasts of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with highly accurate winds from the Loon super pressure balloon network at altitudes between 16 and 20 km. Data from 229 individual balloon flights are analysed, applying a collocation criterion of 2 hr and 200 km. The comparison of Aeolus and Loon data shows systematic and random errors of -0.31 and 6.37 m·s〈sup〉-1〈/sup〉, respectively, for the Aeolus Rayleigh–clear winds. The horizontal representativeness error of Aeolus HLOS winds (nearly the zonal wind component) in the UTLS ranges from 0.6–1.1 m·s〈sup〉-1〈/sup〉 depending on the altitude. The comparison of Aeolus and Loon datasets against ECMWF model forecasts suggests that the model systematically underestimates the HLOS winds in the tropical UTLS by about 1 m·s〈sup〉-1〈/sup〉. While Aeolus winds are currently considered as point winds by the ECMWF data assimilation system, the results of the present study demonstrate the need for a more realistic HLOS wind observation operator for assimilating Aeolus winds.
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Aeolus ; data assimilation ; ECMWF forecasts ; HLOS winds ; Loon ; super pressure balloon observations ; systematic and random errors
    Language: English
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    How certain are El Niño–Southern Oscillation frequency changes in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models? (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-06
    Description: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important modes of climate variability on interannual timescales. We aim to find out whether a change in ENSO frequency can be predicted for the nearer future. We analyse the unforced pre‐industrial control run and the forced 1%/year CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 increase run for an ensemble of 43 general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We assume that the uncertainty of ENSO frequency trend estimates from an ensemble is caused by apparent trends as well as model differences. The part of the uncertainty caused by apparent trends is estimated from the pre‐industrial control simulations. As a measure for ENSO frequency, we use the number of El Niño‐ and La Niña‐like months in a moving 30‐year time window. Its linear decadal trend is calculated for every member. The multimember mean of the trend for both experiments is less than 0.7 events per decade. Given that the standard error is of the same order of magnitude, we consider this a negligible trend. The uncertainties are large in both experiments and we can attribute most of the intermember variability to apparent trends due to natural variability rather than different model reactions to CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 forcing. This means that the impact of intermodel differences might have been overstated in previous studies. Apparent trends make it very difficult to make reliable predictions of changes in ENSO frequency based on 120‐year time series.
    Description: The 1pctCO2 and piControl ensembles from CMIP6 are analysed for 43 models with a focus on changes in ENSO frequency. We find that most of the intermember variability can be attributed to natural variability instead of model differences. Therefore, the uncertainty can only marginally be reduced and it is very difficult to reliably predict changes in ENSO frequency on a timescale of 150 years.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6841964
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; climate change ; CMIP6 ; ENSO ; ENSO frequency
    Language: English
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    Sea‐Ice Forecasts With an Upgraded AWI Coupled Prediction System (2022)
    Mu, Longjiang ; Nerger, Lars ; Streffing, Jan ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-05
    Description: A new version of the AWI Coupled Prediction System is developed based on the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model v3.0. Both the ocean and the atmosphere models are upgraded or replaced, reducing the computation time by a factor of 5 at a given resolution. This allowed us to increase the ensemble size from 12 to 30, maintaining a similar resolution in both model components. The online coupled data assimilation scheme now additionally utilizes sea‐surface salinity and sea‐level anomaly as well as temperature and salinity profile observations. Results from the data assimilation demonstrate that the sea‐ice and ocean states are reasonably constrained. In particular, the temperature and salinity profile assimilation has mitigated systematic errors in the deeper ocean, although issues remain over polar regions where strong atmosphere‐ocean‐ice interaction occurs. One‐year‐long sea‐ice forecasts initialized on 1 January, 1 April, 1 July and 1 October from 2003 to 2019 are described. To correct systematic forecast errors, sea‐ice concentration from 2011 to 2019 is calibrated by trend‐adjusted quantile mapping using the preceding forecasts from 2003 to 2010. The sea‐ice edge raw forecast skill is within the range of operational global subseasonal‐to‐seasonal forecast systems, outperforming a climatological benchmark for about 2 weeks in the Arctic and about 3 weeks in the Antarctic. The calibration is much more effective in the Arctic: Calibrated sea‐ice edge forecasts outperform climatology for about 45 days in the Arctic but only 27 days in the Antarctic. Both the raw and the calibrated forecast skill exhibit strong seasonal variations.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Ocean data sparseness and systematic model errors pose problems for the initialization of coupled seasonal forecasts, especially in polar regions. Our global forecast system follows a seamless approach with refined ocean resolution in the Arctic. The new version presented here features higher computational efficiency and utilizes more ocean and sea‐ice observations. Ice‐edge forecasts outperform a climatological benchmark for about 1 month, comparable to established systems.
    Description: Key Points: We describe an upgrade of the AWI Coupled Prediction System with new ocean and atmosphere models and more observations assimilated. Independent evaluations show advances in the new version on the analysis of the sea‐ice and ocean states against the old one. Calibrated sea‐ice edge forecasts outperform a climatological benchmark for around 1 month in both hemispheres.
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6335383
    Description: https://github.com/FESOM/fesom2/releases/tag/AWI-CM3_v3.0
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6335498
    Description: https://oasis.cerfacs.fr/en/
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4905653
    Description: http://forge.ipsl.jussieu.fr/ioserver
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6335474
    Description: http://pdaf.awi.de/
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6481116
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; seamless sea ice forecast ; multivariate data assimilation ; forecast calibration ; spatial probability score
    Language: English
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    Do Emergent Constraints on Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Hold in CMIP6? (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-21
    Description: Emergent constraints on carbon cycle feedbacks in response to warming and increasing atmospheric CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 concentration have previously been identified in Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5. Here, we examine whether two of these emergent constraints also hold for CMIP6. The spread of the sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to tropical warming in an idealized simulation with a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 shows only a slight decrease in CMIP6 (−52 ± 35 GtC/K) compared to CMIP5 (−49 ± 40 GtC/K). For both model generations, the observed interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 yields a consistent emergent constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake with a constrained range of −37 ± 14 GtC/K for the combined ensemble (i.e., a reduction of ∼30% in the best estimate and 60% in the uncertainty range relative to the multimodel mean of the combined ensemble). A further emergent constraint is based on a relationship between CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 fertilization and the historical increase in the CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 seasonal cycle amplitude in high latitudes. However, this emergent constraint is not evident in CMIP6. This is in part because the historical increase in the amplitude of the CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 seasonal cycle is more accurately simulated in CMIP6, such that the models are all now close to the observational constraint.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The statistical model of so‐called emergent constraints help to better understand the sensitivity of Earth system processes in a changing climate. Here, we analyze the robustness of two previously found emergent constraints on carbon cycle feedbacks, using models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) of Phases 5 and 6. First the decrease of carbon storage in the tropics due to increasing near‐surface air temperatures, which is found to be robust on the choise of model ensemble. Giving a constraint estimate of −52 ± 35 GtC/K for CMIP6 models, being within the range of uncertainty for the previously estimated result for CMIP5. Second, the increase of carbon storage in high latitudes due to CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 fertilization effect, which is found to be not evident among CMIP6 models. This is in part because the historical increase in the amplitude of the CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 seasonal cycle is more accurately simulated in CMIP6, such that the models are all now close to the observational constraint.
    Description: Key Points: An emergent constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to global warming, originally derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), also holds for CMIP6. The combined CMIP5 + CMIP6 ensemble gives an emergent constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to global warming of −37 ± 14 GtC/K. An emergent constraint on the fertilization feedback due to rising CO〈sub〉2 〈/sub〉 levels, previously derived, is not evident in CMIP6.
    Description: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
    Description: ERC
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6900341
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3387139
    Description: https://github.com/ESMValGroup
    Description: https://docs.esmvaltool.org/
    Keywords: ddc:551 ; carbon cycle ; emergent constraint ; CMIP5 ; CMIP6 ; fertilization effect ; temperature warming
    Language: English
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    Learning by Doing: Seasonal and Diurnal Features of Tropical Precipitation in a Global‐Coupled Storm‐Resolving Model (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-13
    Description: Using the global and coupled ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with the Sapphire configuration (ICON‐S) and a grid spacing of 5 km, we describe seasonal and diurnal features of the tropical rainbelt and assess the limits of ICON‐S in representing tropical precipitation. ICON‐S shows that, by resolving meso‐beta scale process, the rainbelt structure and its seasonality (zonal and meridional migration and enlargement) is reproduced, with better performance over land than over ocean and with a very high degree of agreement to observations. ICON‐S especially struggles in capturing the seasonal features of the tropical rainbelt over the oceans of the Eastern Hemisphere, an issue associated with a cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias at the equator. ICON‐S also shows that a perfect representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land is not a requirement to capture the seasonal features of the rainbelt over land, while over the ocean, 5 km is sufficient to adequately represent the diurnal cycle of precipitation.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Over the tropics, precipitation falls in distinct bands, that span the circumference of the Earth. These bands migrate from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere and vice versa following the seasonal migration of the sun. Their center of mass also varies east‐west, as well as their area. Where rain ends up falling is of key importance but conventional climate models relying on statistical approaches to simulate convection cannot represent these characteristics. Here we report on the results of simulations on a global domain and, to our knowledge, for the first time integrated with an atmosphere‐ocean coupled over a full seasonal cycle and with a grid spacing fine enough to explicitly represent convection and Mesoscale Ocean eddies. We show that such simulations can reproduce many aspects of the seasonal migration of the rainbelt over land. For instance, the north‐south and east‐west migration of the rainbelt as well as its expansion during the summer season are well captured. This is also the case for the rainbelt in the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic, but not in the Eastern Hemisphere, where the poor representation of the sea surface temperature pattern distorts the representation of the rainbelt and its seasonal characteristics.
    Description: Key Points: In one year of simulation, the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with the Sapphire configuration (ICON‐S) reproduces the seasonal features of the tropical rainbelt over land with high agreement with observations. In the eastern Pacific and Atlantic, the seasonal structure and movement of the rainbelt are also reproduced by ICON‐S. Biases in sea surface temperature explain the struggles of ICON‐S in simulating the oceanic rainbelt of the Eastern Hemisphere.
    Description: Hans‐Ertel Centre for Weather Research
    Description: European Union's Horizon 2020
    Description: DKRZ compute time
    Description: https://doi.org/10.17617/3.1XTSR6
    Description: https://mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/modeling-with-icon/code-availability
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5067/GPM/IMERG/3B-HH/06
    Description: https://www.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/icdc/data/atmosphere/imerg-precipitation-amount.html
    Description: https://www.cen.uni-hamburg.de/en/icdc/data/ocean/hadisst1.html
    Description: https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000B-4BAE-E
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; tropical precipitation ; rainbelt ; seasonal migration ; ICON-S ; modeling
    Language: English
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