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  • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • Annual Reviews
  • 2020-2023  (48)
  • 2020-2022  (1,451)
  • 2005-2009
  • 2021  (1,499)
  • 2021  (1,499)
Collection
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  • 2020-2023  (48)
  • 2020-2022  (1,451)
  • 2005-2009
  • 2020-2024  (31)
Year
  • 1
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    Multimodel Subseasonal Forecasts of Spring Cold Spells: Potential Value for the Hazelnut Agribusiness (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this time scale is particularly critical because it allows for mitigation strategies to be adopted for counteracting weather hazards and taking advantage of opportunities. For example, spring frosts are detrimental for many nut trees, resulting in dramatic losses at harvest time. To explore subseasonal forecast quality in boreal spring, identified as one of the most sensitive times of the year by agribusiness end users, we build a multisystem ensemble using four models involved in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S). Two-meter temperature forecasts are used to analyze cold spell predictions in the coastal Black Sea region, an area that is a global leader in the production of hazelnuts. When analyzed at the global scale, the multisystem ensemble probabilistic forecasts for near-surface temperature are better than climatological values for several regions, especially the tropics, even many weeks in advance; however, in the coastal Black Sea, skill is low after the second forecast week. When cold spells are predicted instead of near-surface temperatures, skill improves for the region, and the forecasts prove to contain potentially useful information to stakeholders willing to put mitigation plans into effect. Using a cost–loss model approach for the first time in this context, we show that there is added value of having such a forecast system instead of a business-as-usual strategy, not only for predictions released 1–2 weeks ahead of the extreme event, but also at longer lead times.
    Description: Published
    Description: 237–254
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
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    Potential vorticity dynamics of the arctic halocline (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(9), (2020): 2491-2506, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-20-0056.1.
    Description: An idealized two-layer shallow water model is applied to the study of the dynamics of the Arctic Ocean halocline. The model is forced by a surface stress distribution reflective of the observed wind stress pattern and ice motion and by an inflow representing the flow of Pacific Water through Bering Strait. The model reproduces the main elements of the halocline circulation: an anticyclonic Beaufort Gyre in the western basin (representing the Canada Basin), a cyclonic circulation in the eastern basin (representing the Eurasian Basin), and a Transpolar Drift between the two gyres directed from the upwind side of the basin to the downwind side of the basin. Analysis of the potential vorticity budget shows a basin-averaged balance primarily between potential vorticity input at the surface and dissipation at the lateral boundaries. However, advection is a leading-order term not only within the anticyclonic and cyclonic gyres but also between the gyres. This means that the eastern and western basins are dynamically connected through the advection of potential vorticity. Both eddy and mean fluxes play a role in connecting the regions of potential vorticity input at the surface with the opposite gyre and with the viscous boundary layers. These conclusions are based on a series of model runs in which forcing, topography, straits, and the Coriolis parameter were varied.
    Description: This study was supported by National Science Foundation Grant OPP-1822334. Comments and suggestions from two anonymous referees greatly helped to improve the paper.
    Description: 2021-02-17
    Keywords: Eddies ; Ekman pumping/transport ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean dynamics ; Potential vorticity ; Shallow-water equations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
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    Tropical widening from global variations to regional impacts (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101(6), (2020): E897-E904, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0047.1.
    Description: Over the past 15 years, numerous studies have suggested that the sinking branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation and the associated subtropical dry zones have shifted poleward over the late twentieth century and early twenty-first century. Early estimates of this tropical widening from satellite observations and reanalyses varied from 0.25° to 3° latitude per decade, while estimates from global climate models show widening at the lower end of the observed range. In 2016, two working groups, the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) working group on the Changing Width of the Tropical Belt and the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Tropical Width Diagnostics Intercomparison Project, were formed to synthesize current understanding of the magnitude, causes, and impacts of the recent tropical widening evident in observations. These working groups concluded that the large rates of observed tropical widening noted by earlier studies resulted from their use of metrics that poorly capture changes in the Hadley circulation, or from the use of reanalyses that contained spurious trends. Accounting for these issues reduces the range of observed expansion rates to 0.25°–0.5° latitude decade‒1—within the range from model simulations. Models indicate that most of the recent Northern Hemisphere tropical widening is consistent with natural variability, whereas increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing stratospheric ozone likely played an important role in Southern Hemisphere widening. Whatever the cause or rate of expansion, understanding the regional impacts of tropical widening requires additional work, as different forcings can produce different regional patterns of widening.
    Description: We thank U.S. CLIVAR and ISSI for funding the two working groups. We thank all members of the working groups for helpful discussions, and the U.S. CLIVAR and ISSI offices and their sponsoring agencies (NASA, NOAA, NSF, DOE, ESA, Swiss Confederation, Swiss Academy of Sciences, and University of Bern) for supporting these groups and activities.
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  • 4
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    Mean conditions and seasonality of the West Greenland boundary current system near Cape Farewell (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(10), (2020): 2849-2871, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0086.1.
    Description: The structure, transport, and seasonal variability of the West Greenland boundary current system near Cape Farewell are investigated using a high-resolution mooring array deployed from 2014 to 2018. The boundary current system is comprised of three components: the West Greenland Coastal Current, which advects cold and fresh Upper Polar Water (UPW); the West Greenland Current, which transports warm and salty Irminger Water (IW) along the upper slope and UPW at the surface; and the Deep Western Boundary Current, which advects dense overflow waters. Labrador Sea Water (LSW) is prevalent at the seaward side of the array within an offshore recirculation gyre and at the base of the West Greenland Current. The 4-yr mean transport of the full boundary current system is 31.1 ± 7.4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), with no clear seasonal signal. However, the individual water mass components exhibit seasonal cycles in hydrographic properties and transport. LSW penetrates the boundary current locally, through entrainment/mixing from the adjacent recirculation gyre, and also enters the current upstream in the Irminger Sea. IW is modified through air–sea interaction during winter along the length of its trajectory around the Irminger Sea, which converts some of the water to LSW. This, together with the seasonal increase in LSW entering the current, results in an anticorrelation in transport between these two water masses. The seasonality in UPW transport can be explained by remote wind forcing and subsequent adjustment via coastal trapped waves. Our results provide the first quantitatively robust observational description of the boundary current in the eastern Labrador Sea.
    Description: A.P., R.S.P., F.B., D.J.T., and A.L.R. were funded by Grants OCE-1259618 and OCE-1756361 from the National Science Foundation. I.L.B, F.S., and J.H. were supported by U.S. National Science Foundation Grants OCE-1258823 and OCE-1756272. Mooring data from MA2 was funded by the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013) under Grant 308299 (NACLIM) and the Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant 727852 (Blue-Action). J.K. and M.O. acknowledge EU Horizon 2020 funding Grants 727852 (Blue-action) and 862626 (EuroSea) and from the German Ministry of Research and Education (RACE Program). G.W.K.M. acknowledges funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council.
    Keywords: Boundary currents ; Convection ; Deep convection ; Transport ; In situ oceanic observations ; Seasonal cycle
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  • 5
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    Coherent pathways for vertical transport from the Surface Ocean to Interior (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101(11), (2020): E1996-E2004, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0305.1.
    Description: A long-standing challenge in oceanography is the observing, modeling, and prediction of vertical transport, which links the sunlit and atmospherically mediated surface boundary layer with the deeper ocean. Vertical motions play a critical role in the exchange of heat, freshwater, and biogeochemical tracers between the surface and the ocean interior. The most intense vertical velocities occur at horizontal scales less than 10 km, making them difficult to observe in the ocean and to resolve in models. Understanding how finescale turbulent motions and 0.1–10 km submesoscale processes contribute to the large-scale budgets of nutrients, oxygen, carbon, and heat and affect sea surface temperature, the air–sea exchange of gases, and the carbon cycle is one of the key challenges in oceanography.
    Description: CALYPSO is a Departmental Research Initiative (DRI) funded by the U.S. Office of Naval Research (ONR). It is a collaborative program involving more than 30 scientists and students and multiple institutions in the United States, Spain, and Italy. Measurements were conducted from the NRV Alliance, Pourquoi Pas?, and SOCIB. We are grateful to the captains and crews of these research vessels and the technical and scientific staff involved in making measurements, running models, analyzing data, and providing support.
    Description: 2021-05-01
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  • 6
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    Microstructure mixing observations and finescale parameterizations in the Beaufort Sea (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(1), (2021): 19-35, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0233.1.
    Description: In the Beaufort Sea in September of 2015, concurrent mooring and microstructure observations were used to assess dissipation rates in the vicinity of 72°35′N, 145°1′W. Microstructure measurements from a free-falling profiler survey showed very low [O(10−10) W kg−1] turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rates ε. A finescale parameterization based on both shear and strain measurements was applied to estimate the ratio of shear to strain Rω and ε at the mooring location, and a strain-based parameterization was applied to the microstructure survey (which occurred approximately 100 km away from the mooring site) for direct comparison with microstructure results. The finescale parameterization worked well, with discrepancies ranging from a factor of 1–2.5 depending on depth. The largest discrepancies occurred at depths with high shear. Mean Rω was 17, and Rω showed high variability with values ranging from 3 to 50 over 8 days. Observed ε was slightly elevated (factor of 2–3 compared with a later survey of 11 profiles taken over 3 h) from 25 to 125 m following a wind event which occurred at the beginning of the mooring deployment, reaching a maximum of ε= 6 × 10−10 W kg−1 at 30-m depth. Velocity signals associated with near-inertial waves (NIWs) were observed at depths greater than 200 m, where the Atlantic Water mass represents a reservoir of oceanic heat. However, no evidence of elevated ε or heat fluxes was observed in association with NIWs at these depths in either the microstructure survey or the finescale parameterization estimates.
    Description: This work was supported by NSF Grants PLR 14-56705 and PLR-1303791 and by NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Grant DGE-1650112.
    Keywords: Ocean ; Arctic ; Internal waves ; Turbulence ; Diapycnal mixing
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  • 7
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    The equatorial current system west of the Galapagos Islands during the 2014-16 El Niño as observed by underwater gliders (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(1),(2021): 3-17, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0064.1.
    Description: The strong El Niño of 2014–16 was observed west of the Galápagos Islands through sustained deployment of underwater gliders. Three years of observations began in October 2013 and ended in October 2016, with observations at longitudes 93° and 95°W between latitudes 2°N and 2°S. In total, there were over 3000 glider-days of data, covering over 50 000 km with over 12 000 profiles. Coverage was superior closer to the Galápagos on 93°W, where gliders were equipped with sensors to measure velocity as well as temperature, salinity, and pressure. The repeated glider transects are analyzed to produce highly resolved mean sections and maps of observed variables as functions of time, latitude, and depth. The mean sections reveal the structure of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC), the South Equatorial Current, and the equatorial front. The mean fields are used to calculate potential vorticity Q and Richardson number Ri. Gradients in the mean are strong enough to make the sign of Q opposite to that of planetary vorticity and to have Ri near unity, suggestive of mixing. Temporal variability is dominated by the 2014–16 El Niño, with the arrival of depressed isopycnals documented in 2014 and 2015. Increases in eastward velocity advect anomalously salty water and are uncorrelated with warm temperatures and deep isopycnals. Thus, vertical advection is important to changes in heat, and horizontal advection is relevant to changes in salt. Implications of this work include possibilities for future research, model assessment and improvement, and sustained observations across the equatorial Pacific.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation (OCE-1232971, OCE-1233282) and the Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NA13OAR4830216).
    Keywords: Ocean ; Tropics ; Currents ; El Nino ; In situ oceanic observations
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  • 8
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    Development and testing of the AXBT real-time editing system (ARES) (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 38(1), (2021): 3-16, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0110.1.
    Description: Airborne expendable bathythermographs (AXBTs) are air-launched, single-use temperature–depth probes that telemeter temperature observations as VHF-modulated frequencies. This study describes the AXBT Real-Time Editing System (ARES), which is composed of two components: the ARES Data Acquisition System, which receives telemetered temperature–depth profiles with no external hardware other than a VHF radio receiver, and the ARES Profile Editing System, which quality controls AXBT temperature–depth profiles. The ARES Data Acquisition System performs fast Fourier transforms on windowed segments of the demodulated signal transmitted from the AXBT. For each segment, temperature is determined from peak frequency and depth from elapsed time since profile start. Valid signals are distinguished from noise by comparing peak signal levels and signal-to-noise ratios to predetermined thresholds. When evaluated using 387 profiles, the ARES Data Acquisition System produced temperature–depth profiles nearly identical to those generated using a Sippican MK-21 processor, while reducing the amount of noise from VHF interference included in those profiles. The ARES Profile Editor applies a series of automated checks to identify and correct common profile discrepancies before displaying the profile on an editing interface that provides simple user controls to make additional corrections. When evaluated against 1177 tropical Atlantic and Pacific AXBT profiles, the ARES automated quality control system successfully corrected 87% of the profiles without any required manual intervention. Necessary future work includes improvements to the automated quality control algorithm and algorithm evaluation against a broader dataset of temperature–depth profiles from around the world across all seasons.
    Description: This work was sponsored by the Office of Naval Research (Grants N000141812819 and N0001420WX00345) and the U.S. Navy’s Civilian Institution Office with the MIT–WHOI Joint Program.
    Keywords: Ocean ; In situ oceanic observations ; Profilers, oceanic
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  • 9
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    Towards an end-to-end analysis and prediction system for weather, climate, and marine applications in the Red Sea (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102(1), (2021): E99-E122, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0005.1.
    Description: The Red Sea, home to the second-longest coral reef system in the world, is a vital resource for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Red Sea provides 90% of the Kingdom’s potable water by desalinization, supporting tourism, shipping, aquaculture, and fishing industries, which together contribute about 10%–20% of the country’s GDP. All these activities, and those elsewhere in the Red Sea region, critically depend on oceanic and atmospheric conditions. At a time of mega-development projects along the Red Sea coast, and global warming, authorities are working on optimizing the harnessing of environmental resources, including renewable energy and rainwater harvesting. All these require high-resolution weather and climate information. Toward this end, we have undertaken a multipronged research and development activity in which we are developing an integrated data-driven regional coupled modeling system. The telescopically nested components include 5-km- to 600-m-resolution atmospheric models to address weather and climate challenges, 4-km- to 50-m-resolution ocean models with regional and coastal configurations to simulate and predict the general and mesoscale circulation, 4-km- to 100-m-resolution ecosystem models to simulate the biogeochemistry, and 1-km- to 50-m-resolution wave models. In addition, a complementary probabilistic transport modeling system predicts dispersion of contaminant plumes, oil spill, and marine ecosystem connectivity. Advanced ensemble data assimilation capabilities have also been implemented for accurate forecasting. Resulting achievements include significant advancement in our understanding of the regional circulation and its connection to the global climate, development, and validation of long-term Red Sea regional atmospheric–oceanic–wave reanalyses and forecasting capacities. These products are being extensively used by academia, government, and industry in various weather and marine studies and operations, environmental policies, renewable energy applications, impact assessment, flood forecasting, and more.
    Description: The development of the Red Sea modeling system is being supported by the Virtual Red Sea Initiative and the Competitive Research Grants (CRG) program from the Office of Sponsored Research at KAUST, Saudi Aramco Company through the Saudi ARAMCO Marine Environmental Center at KAUST, and by funds from KAEC, NEOM, and RSP through Beacon Development Company at KAUST.
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  • 10
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    On the predictability of sea surface height around Palau (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(11), (2020): 3267–3294, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0310.1.
    Description: As part of the Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography (FLEAT) program, an array of pressure-sensor equipped inverted echo sounders (PIESs) was deployed north of Palau where the westward-flowing North Equatorial Current encounters the southern end of the Kyushu–Palau Ridge in the tropical North Pacific. Capitalizing on concurrent observations from satellite altimetry, FLEAT Spray gliders, and shipboard hydrography, the PIESs’ 10-month duration hourly bottom pressure p and round-trip acoustic travel time τ records are used to examine the magnitude and predictability of sea level and pycnocline depth changes and to track signal propagations through the array. Sea level and pycnocline depth are found to vary in response to a range of ocean processes, with their magnitude and predictability strongly process dependent. Signals characterized here comprise the barotropic tides, semidiurnal and diurnal internal tides, southeastward-propagating superinertial waves, westward-propagating mesoscale eddies, and a strong signature of sea level increase and pycnocline deepening associated with the region’s relaxation from El Niño to La Niña conditions. The presence of a broad band of superinertial waves just above the inertial frequency was unexpected and the FLEAT observations and output from a numerical model suggest that these waves detected near Palau are forced by remote winds east of the Philippines. The PIES-based estimates of pycnocline displacement are found to have large uncertainties relative to overall variability in pycnocline depth, as localized deep current variations arising from interactions of the large-scale currents with the abrupt topography around Palau have significant travel time variability.
    Description: Support for this research was provided by Office of Naval Research Grants N00014-16-1-2668, N00014-18-1-2406, N00014-15-1-2488, and N00014-15-1-2622. R.C.M. was additionally supported by the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with funding provided by the Weston Howland Jr. Postdoctoral Scholarship.
    Keywords: Tropics ; Currents ; Eddies ; ENSO ; Internal waves ; Mesoscale processes
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  • 11
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    Warm spiral streamers over Gulf Stream warm-core rings (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(11),(2020): 3331–3351, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0035.1.
    Description: This study examines the generation of warm spiral structures (referred to as spiral streamers here) over Gulf Stream warm-core rings. Satellite sea surface temperature imagery shows spiral streamers forming after warmer water from the Gulf Stream or newly formed warm-core rings impinges onto old warm-core rings and then intrudes into the old rings. Field measurements in April 2018 capture the vertical structure of a warm spiral streamer as a shallow lens of low-density water winding over an old ring. Observations also show subduction on both sides of the spiral streamer, which carries surface waters downward. Idealized numerical model simulations initialized with observed water-mass densities reproduce spiral streamers over warm-core rings and reveal that their formation is a nonlinear submesoscale process forced by mesoscale dynamics. The negative density anomaly of the intruding water causes a density front at the interface between the intruding water and surface ring water, which, through thermal wind balance, drives a local anticyclonic flow. The pressure gradient and momentum advection of the local interfacial flow push the intruding water toward the ring center. The large-scale anticyclonic flow of the ring and the radial motion of the intruding water together form the spiral streamer. The observed subduction on both sides of the spiral streamer is part of the secondary cross-streamer circulation resulting from frontogenesis on the stretching streamer edges. The surface divergence of the secondary circulation pushes the side edges of the streamer away from each other, widens the warm spiral on the surface, and thus enhances its surface signal.
    Description: Authors W. G. Zhang and D. J. McGillicuddy are both supported by the National Science Foundation through Grant OCE 1657803.
    Keywords: Buoyancy ; Eddies ; Frontogenesis/frontolysis ; Mesoscale processes ; Transport ; Vertical motion
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  • 12
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    Kinematic structure and dynamics of the Denmark Strait Overflow from ship-based observations (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(11), (2020): 3235–3251, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0095.1.
    Description: The dense outflow through Denmark Strait is the largest contributor to the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, yet a description of the full velocity field across the strait remains incomplete. Here we analyze a set of 22 shipboard hydrographic–velocity sections occupied along the Látrabjarg transect at the Denmark Strait sill, obtained over the time period 1993–2018. The sections provide the first complete view of the kinematic components at the sill: the shelfbreak East Greenland Current (EGC), the combined flow of the separated EGC, and the North Icelandic Jet (NIJ), and the northward-flowing North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC). The total mean transport of overflow water is 3.54 ± 0.29 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), comparable to previous estimates. The dense overflow is partitioned in terms of water mass constituents and flow components. The mean transports of the two types of overflow water—Atlantic-origin Overflow Water and Arctic-origin Overflow Water—are comparable in Denmark Strait, while the merged NIJ–separated EGC transports 55% more water than the shelfbreak EGC. A significant degree of water mass exchange takes place between the branches as they converge in Denmark Strait. There are two dominant time-varying configurations of the flow that are characterized as a cyclonic state and a noncyclonic state. These appear to be wind-driven. A potential vorticity analysis indicates that the flow through Denmark Strait is subject to symmetric instability. This occurs at the top of the overflow layer, implying that the mixing/entrainment process that modifies the overflow water begins at the sill.
    Description: Funding for the study was provided by National Science Foundation (NSF) Grants OCE-1259618, OCE-1756361, and OCE-1558742. The German research cruises were financially supported through various EU Projects (e.g. THOR, NACLIM) and national projects (most recently TRR 181 “Energy Transfer in Atmosphere and Ocean” funded by the German Research Foundation and RACE II “Regional Atlantic Circulation and Global Change” funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research). GWKM acknowledges the support of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. LP was supported by NSF Grant OCE-1657870.
    Keywords: Currents ; Instability ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean dynamics ; Potential vorticity
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  • 13
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    Poleward shift of the Kuroshio Extension front and its impact on the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water in the recent decades (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(2), (2021): 457–474, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0088.1.
    Description: The meridional shift of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) front and changes in the formation of the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) during 1979–2018 are reported. The surface-to-subsurface structure of the KE front averaged over 142°–165°E has shifted poleward at a rate of ~0.23° ± 0.16° decade−1. The shift was caused mainly by the poleward shift of the downstream KE front (153°–165°E, ~0.41° ± 0.29° decade−1) and barely by the upstream KE front (142°–153°E). The long-term shift trend of the KE front showed two distinct behaviors before and after 2002. Before 2002, the surface KE front moved northward with a faster rate than the subsurface. After 2002, the surface KE front showed no obvious trend, but the subsurface KE front continued to move northward. The ventilation zone of the STMW, defined by the area between the 16° and 18°C isotherms or between the 25 and 25.5 kg m−3 isopycnals, contracted and displaced northward with a shoaling of the mixed layer depth hm before 2002 when the KE front moved northward. The STMW subduction rate was reduced by 0.76 Sv (63%; 1 Sv ≡ = 106 m3 s−1) during 1979–2018, most of which occurred before 2002. Of the three components affecting the total subduction rate, the temporal induction (−∂hm/∂t) was dominant accounting for 91% of the rate reduction, while the vertical pumping (−wmb) amounted to 8% and the lateral induction (−umb ⋅ ∇hm) was insignificant. The reduced temporal induction was attributed to both the contracted ventilation zone and the shallowed hm that were incurred by the poleward shift of KE front.
    Description: Xiaopei Lin is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41925025 and 92058203) and China’s national key research and development projects (2016YFA0601803). Baolan Wu is supported by the China Scholarship Council (201806330010). Lisan Yu thanks NOAA for support for her study on climate change and variability.
    Keywords: Boundary currents ; Decadal variability ; Fronts ; Water masses/storage
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    Observing and quantifying ocean flow properties using drifters with drogues at different depths (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(8),(2021): 2463–2482, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0291.1.
    Description: This paper presents analyses of drifters with drogues at different depths—1, 10, 30, and 50 m—that were deployed in the Mediterranean Sea to investigate frontal subduction and upwelling. Drifter trajectories were used to estimate divergence, vorticity, vertical velocity, and finite-size Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) and to investigate the balance of terms in the vorticity equation. The divergence and vorticity are O(f) and change sign along trajectories. Vertical velocity is O(1 mm s−1), increases with depth, indicates predominant upwelling with isolated downwelling events, and sometimes changes sign between 1 and 50 m. Vortex stretching is one of the significant terms, but not the only one, in the vorticity balance. Two-dimensional FTLEs are 2 × 10−5 s−1 after 1 day, 2 times as large as in a 400-m-resolution numerical model. Three-dimensional FTLEs are 50% larger than 2D FTLEs and are dominated by the vertical shear of horizontal velocity. Bootstrapping suggests uncertainty levels of ~10% of the time-mean absolute values for divergence and vorticity. Analysis of simulated drifters in a model suggests that drifter-based estimates of divergence and vorticity are close to the Eulerian model estimates, except when drifters get aligned into long filaments. Drifter-based vertical velocity is close to the Eulerian model estimates at 1 m but differs at deeper depths. The errors in the vertical velocity are largely due to the lateral separation between drifters at different depths and are partially due to only measuring at four depths. Overall, this paper demonstrates how drifters, heretofore restricted to 2D near-surface observations, can be used to learn about 3D flow properties throughout the upper layer of the water column.
    Description: Authors Rypina and Pratt were supported by U.S. Office of Naval Research (ONR) Grant N000141812417. Author Getscher acknowledges support from the U.S. Navy Civilian Institution Office with the MIT–WHOI Joint Program. Author Mourre acknowledges support from ONR Grant N00014-16-1-3130. We also thank Eugenio Cutolo for the initial technical support in the implementation of the ultra-high-resolution WMOP simulation. CALYPSO is a Departmental Research Initiative funded by the ONR.
    Description: 2022-01-16
    Keywords: Convergence/divergence ; Fronts ; Nonlinear dynamics ; Small scale processes ; Trajectories ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Vertical motion
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    Impact of shelf valleys on the spread of surface-trapped river plumes (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(1), (2021): 247-266, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0098.1.
    Description: This study focuses on mechanisms of shelf valley bathymetry affecting the spread of riverine freshwater in the nearshore region. In the context of Changjiang River, a numerical model is used with different no-tide idealized configurations to simulate development of unforced river plumes over a sloping bottom, with and without a shelf valley off the estuary mouth. All simulated freshwater plumes are surface-trapped with continuously growing bulges near the estuary mouth and narrow coastal currents downstream. The simulations indicate that a shelf valley tends to compress the bulge along the direction of the valley long axis and modify the incident angle of the bulge flow impinging toward the coast, which then affects the strength of the coastal current. The bulge compression results from geostrophic adjustment and isobath-following tendency of the depth-averaged flow in the bulge region. Generally, the resulting change in the direction of the bulge impinging flow enhances down-shelf momentum advection and freshwater delivery into the coastal current. Sensitivity simulations with altered river discharges Q, Coriolis parameter, shelf bottom slope, valley geometry, and ambient stratification show that enhancement of down-shelf freshwater transport in the coastal current, ΔQc, increases with increasing valley depth within the bulge region and decreasing slope Burger number of the ambient shelf. Assuming potential vorticity conservation, a scaling formula of ΔQc/Q is developed, and it agrees well with results of the sensitivity simulations. Mechanisms of valley influences on unforced river plumes revealed here will help future studies of topographic influence on river plumes under more realistic conditions.
    Description: This work is conducted by Canbo Xiao and Weifeng (Gordon) Zhang during CX’s one-year visit at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in 2018–19. CX was supported by China Scholarship Council.
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; Buoyancy ; Coastal flows ; Topographic effects ; Runoff ; Numerical analysis/modeling
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    Mixing and transformation in a deep western boundary current: a case study (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Spingys, C. P., Garabato, A. C. N., Legg, S., Polzin, K. L., Abrahamsen, E. P., Buckingham, C. E., Forryan, A., & Frajka-Williams, E. E. Mixing and transformation in a deep western boundary current: a case study. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 51(4), (2021): 1205-1222, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0132.1
    Description: Water-mass transformation by turbulent mixing is a key part of the deep-ocean overturning, as it drives the upwelling of dense waters formed at high latitudes. Here, we quantify this transformation and its underpinning processes in a small Southern Ocean basin: the Orkney Deep. Observations reveal a focusing of the transport in density space as a deep western boundary current (DWBC) flows through the region, associated with lightening and densification of the current’s denser and lighter layers, respectively. These transformations are driven by vigorous turbulent mixing. Comparing this transformation with measurements of the rate of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation indicates that, within the DWBC, turbulence operates with a high mixing efficiency, characterized by a dissipation ratio of 0.6 to 1 that exceeds the common value of 0.2. This result is corroborated by estimates of the dissipation ratio from microstructure observations. The causes of the transformation are unraveled through a decomposition into contributions dependent on the gradients in density space of the: dianeutral mixing rate, isoneutral area, and stratification. The transformation is found to be primarily driven by strong turbulence acting on an abrupt transition from the weakly stratified bottom boundary layer to well-stratified off-boundary waters. The reduced boundary layer stratification is generated by a downslope Ekman flow associated with the DWBC’s flow along sloping topography, and is further regulated by submesoscale instabilities acting to restratify near-boundary waters. Our results provide observational evidence endorsing the importance of near-boundary mixing processes to deep-ocean overturning, and highlight the role of DWBCs as hot spots of dianeutral upwelling.
    Description: CS, ACNG, AF, and EFW were supported by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Grant NE/K013181/1. ACNG was supported by the Royal Society and Wolfson Foundation. EPA and CEB were supported by NERC Grant NE/K012843/1. CEB was funded by an MSCA grant (No. 798319) from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 program. EPA was supported by NERC Grant NE/N018095/1. SL and KP were supported by U.S. National Science Foundation Grants OCE-1536453 and OCE-1536779. SL acknowledges support of Award NA18OAR4320123 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the U.S. Department of Commerce.
    Keywords: Bottom currents ; Diapycnal mixing ; Turbulence ; Southern Ocean
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    How much Arctic fresh water participates in the subpolar overturning circulation? (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(3), (2021): 955–973, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0240.1.
    Description: Fresh Arctic waters flowing into the Atlantic are thought to have two primary fates. They may be mixed into the deep ocean as part of the overturning circulation, or flow alongside regions of deep water formation without impacting overturning. Climate models suggest that as increasing amounts of freshwater enter the Atlantic, the overturning circulation will be disrupted, yet we lack an understanding of how much freshwater is mixed into the overturning circulation’s deep limb in the present day. To constrain these freshwater pathways, we build steady-state volume, salt, and heat budgets east of Greenland that are initialized with observations and closed using inverse methods. Freshwater sources are split into oceanic Polar Waters from the Arctic and surface freshwater fluxes, which include net precipitation, runoff, and ice melt, to examine how they imprint the circulation differently. We find that 65 mSv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of the total 110 mSv of surface freshwater fluxes that enter our domain participate in the overturning circulation, as do 0.6 Sv of the total 1.2 Sv of Polar Waters that flow through Fram Strait. Based on these results, we hypothesize that the overturning circulation is more sensitive to future changes in Arctic freshwater outflow and precipitation, while Greenland runoff and iceberg melt are more likely to stay along the coast of Greenland.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge the U.S. National Science Foundation: this work was supported by Grants OCE-1258823, OCE-1756272, OCE-1948335, and OCE-2038481. L.H.S. thanks the U.S. Norway Fulbright Foundation for the Norwegian Arctic Chair Grant 2019-20 that made the visit to Scripps Institution of Oceanography possible. N.P.H. acknowledges support by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) National Capability program CLASS (NE/R015953/1), and Grants U.K.-OSNAP (NE/K010875/1, NE/K010875/2) and U.K.-OSNAP Decade (NE/T00858X/1). We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6.
    Keywords: Arctic ; North Atlantic Ocean ; Conservation equations ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation ; Inverse methods
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    Cyclonic Eddies in the West Greenland Boundary Current System (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(7), (2021): 2087–2102, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0255.1.
    Description: The boundary current system in the Labrador Sea plays an integral role in modulating convection in the interior basin. Four years of mooring data from the eastern Labrador Sea reveal persistent mesoscale variability in the West Greenland boundary current. Between 2014 and 2018, 197 middepth intensified cyclones were identified that passed the array near the 2000-m isobath. In this study, we quantify these features and show that they are the downstream manifestation of Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) cyclones. A composite cyclone is constructed revealing an average radius of 9 km, maximum azimuthal speed of 24 cm s−1, and a core propagation velocity of 27 cm s−1. The core propagation velocity is significantly smaller than upstream near Denmark Strait, allowing them to trap more water. The cyclones transport a 200-m-thick lens of dense water at the bottom of the water column and increase the transport of DSOW in the West Greenland boundary current by 17% relative to the background flow. Only a portion of the features generated at Denmark Strait make it to the Labrador Sea, implying that the remainder are shed into the interior Irminger Sea, are retroflected at Cape Farewell, or dissipate. A synoptic shipboard survey east of Cape Farewell, conducted in summer 2020, captured two of these features that shed further light on their structure and timing. This is the first time DSOW cyclones have been observed in the Labrador Sea—a discovery that could have important implications for interior stratification.
    Description: A. P. and R. S. P. were funded by National Science Foundation Grants OCE-1259618 and OCE-1756361. I. L. B. and F. S. were funded by National Science Foundation Grants OCE-1258823 and OCE-1756272. N. P. H. was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council U.K. OSNAP program (NE/K010875/1 and NE/K010700/1). M. A. S. was supported by NSF Grants OCE-1558742 and OPP-1822334.
    Description: 2021-12-08
    Keywords: Boundary currents ; Eddies ; Transport
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    Abyssal circulation driven by near-boundary mixing: water mass transformations and interior stratification (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(8),(2020): 2203-2226, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0313.1.
    Description: The emerging view of the abyssal circulation is that it is associated with bottom-enhanced mixing, which results in downwelling in the stratified ocean interior and upwelling in a bottom boundary layer along the insulating and sloping seafloor. In the limit of slowly varying vertical stratification and topography, however, boundary layer theory predicts that these upslope and downslope flows largely compensate, such that net water mass transformations along the slope are vanishingly small. Using a planetary geostrophic circulation model that resolves both the boundary layer dynamics and the large-scale overturning in an idealized basin with bottom-enhanced mixing along a midocean ridge, we show that vertical variations in stratification become sufficiently large at equilibrium to reduce the degree of compensation along the midocean ridge flanks. The resulting large net transformations are similar to estimates for the abyssal ocean and span the vertical extent of the ridge. These results suggest that boundary flows generated by mixing play a crucial role in setting the global ocean stratification and overturning circulation, requiring a revision of abyssal ocean theories.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 6932401 and 6936732.
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Bottom currents ; Boundary currents ; Mixing ; Bottom currents/bottom water ; Boundary layer
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    Along-stream evolution of Gulf Stream volume transport (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(8), (2020): 2251-2270, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0303.1.
    Description: The Gulf Stream affects global climate by transporting water and heat poleward. The current’s volume transport increases markedly along the U.S. East Coast. An extensive observing program using autonomous underwater gliders provides finescale, subsurface observations of hydrography and velocity spanning more than 15° of latitude along the path of the Gulf Stream, thereby filling a 1500-km-long gap between long-term transport measurements in the Florida Strait and downstream of Cape Hatteras. Here, the glider-based observations are combined with shipboard measurements along Line W near 68°W to provide a detailed picture of the along-stream transport increase. To account for the influences of Gulf Stream curvature and adjacent circulation (e.g., corotating eddies) on transport estimates, upper- and lower-bound transports are constructed for each cross–Gulf Stream transect. The upper-bound estimate for time-averaged volume transport above 1000 m is 32.9 ± 1.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the Florida Strait, 57.3 ± 1.9 Sv at Cape Hatteras, and 75.6 ± 4.7 Sv at Line W. Corresponding lower-bound estimates are 32.3 ± 1.1 Sv in the Florida Strait, 54.5 ± 1.7 Sv at Cape Hatteras, and 69.9 ± 4.2 Sv at Line W. Using the temperature and salinity observations from gliders and Line W, waters are divided into seven classes to investigate the properties of waters that are transported by and entrained into the Gulf Stream. Most of the increase in overall Gulf Stream volume transport above 1000 m stems from the entrainment of subthermocline waters, including upper Labrador Sea Water and Eighteen Degree Water.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge funding from the Office of Naval Research (N000141713040), the National Science Foundation (OCE-0220769, OCE-1633911, OCE-1923362), NOAA’s Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program (NA14OAR4320158, NA19OAR4320074), WHOI’s Oceans and Climate Change Institute, Eastman Chemical Company, and the W. Van Alan Clark, Jr. Chair for Excellence in Oceanography at WHOI (awarded to Breck Owens).
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; North Atlantic Ocean ; Boundary currents ; Transport ; In situ oceanic observations ; Profilers, oceanic
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  • 21
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    Uncertainties in ocean latent heat flux variations over recent decades in satellite-based estimates and reduced observation reanalyses (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(19), (2020): 8415-8437, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0954.1.
    Description: Four state-of-the-art satellite-based estimates of ocean surface latent heat fluxes (LHFs) extending over three decades are analyzed, focusing on the interannual variability and trends of near-global averages and regional patterns. Detailed intercomparisons are made with other datasets including 1) reduced observation reanalyses (RedObs) whose exclusion of satellite data renders them an important independent diagnostic tool; 2) a moisture budget residual LHF estimate using reanalysis moisture transport, atmospheric storage, and satellite precipitation; 3) the ECMWF Reanalysis 5 (ERA5); 4) Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) single-sensor passive microwave and scatterometer wind speed retrievals; and 5) several sea surface temperature (SST) datasets. Large disparities remain in near-global satellite LHF trends and their regional expression over the 1990–2010 period, during which time the interdecadal Pacific oscillation changed sign. The budget residual diagnostics support the smaller RedObs LHF trends. The satellites, ERA5, and RedObs are reasonably consistent in identifying contributions by the 10-m wind speed variations to the LHF trend patterns. However, contributions by the near-surface vertical humidity gradient from satellites and ERA5 trend upward in time with respect to the RedObs ensemble and show less agreement in trend patterns. Problems with wind speed retrievals from Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder satellite sensors, excessive upward trends in trends in Optimal Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST AVHRR-Only) data used in most satellite LHF estimates, and uncertainties associated with poor satellite coverage before the mid-1990s are noted. Possibly erroneous trends are also identified in ERA5 LHF associated with the onset of scatterometer wind data assimilation in the early 1990s.
    Description: FRR, JBR, and MGB acknowledge support for this investigation through the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS), Dr. Jared Entin, Program Manager. MS acknowledges the financial support by the EUMETSAT member states through CM SAF. The NOAA-CIRES-DOE Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center managed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which is supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231 and used resources of NOAA’s remotely deployed high-performance computing systems. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the U.S. DOE, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the NOAA Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. RSS products are supported by funding from the NASA Earth Science Division. H. Tomita acknowledges support from JSPS Grants JP18H03726, JP18H03737, and JP19H05696 and JAXA Announcement EO-2. We gratefully acknowledge provision and institutional support for the following SST datasets: ESA CCI (http://data.ceda.ac.uk/neodc/esacci/sst/data/CDR_v2/); NOAA Optimum Interpolation 1/4 Degree Daily Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) Analysis, version 2, (https:/doi.org/10.7289/V5SQ8XB5); NOAA ERSST v5 (https:/doi.org/10.7289/V5T72FNM) and access to COBE-SST2 provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD (boyin.huang@noaa.gov); 20CRv3 data are available at the NERSC Science Tape Gateway via portal.nersc.gov.
    Description: 2021-03-01
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Hydrologic cycle ; Microwave observations ; Satellite observations ; Reanalysis data ; Decadal variability
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    Field evidence of inverse energy cascades in the surfzone (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(8),(2020): 2315-2321, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0327.1.
    Description: Low-frequency currents and eddies transport sediment, pathogens, larvae, and heat along the coast and between the shoreline and deeper water. Here, low-frequency currents (between 0.1 and 4.0 mHz) observed in shallow surfzone waters for 120 days during a wide range of wave conditions are compared with theories for generation by instabilities of alongshore currents, by ocean-wave-induced sea surface modulations, and by a nonlinear transfer of energy from breaking waves to low-frequency motions via a two-dimensional inverse energy cascade. For these data, the low-frequency currents are not strongly correlated with shear of the alongshore current, with the strength of the alongshore current, or with wave-group statistics. In contrast, on many occasions, the low-frequency currents are consistent with an inverse energy cascade from breaking waves. The energy of the low-frequency surfzone currents increases with the directional spread of the wave field, consistent with vorticity injection by short-crested breaking waves, and structure functions increase with spatial lags, consistent with a cascade of energy from few-meter-scale vortices to larger-scale motions. These results include the first field evidence for the inverse energy cascade in the surfzone and suggest that breaking waves and nonlinear energy transfers should be considered when estimating nearshore transport processes across and along the coast.
    Description: Funding was provided by a Vannevar Bush Faculty Fellowship [from OUSD(R&E)] and NSF.
    Keywords: Ocean ; Coastlines ; Eddies ; Wave breaking
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    Observed eddy-internal wave interactions in the Southern Ocean (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Cusack, J. M., Brearley, J. A., Garabato, A. C. N., Smeed, D. A., Polzin, K. L., Velzeboer, N., & Shakespeare, C. J. Observed eddy-internal wave interactions in the Southern Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 50(10), (2020): 3042-3062, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-20-0001.1.
    Description: The physical mechanisms that remove energy from the Southern Ocean’s vigorous mesoscale eddy field are not well understood. One proposed mechanism is direct energy transfer to the internal wave field in the ocean interior, via eddy-induced straining and shearing of preexisting internal waves. The magnitude, vertical structure, and temporal variability of the rate of energy transfer between eddies and internal waves is quantified from a 14-month deployment of a mooring cluster in the Scotia Sea. Velocity and buoyancy observations are decomposed into wave and eddy components, and the energy transfer is estimated using the Reynolds-averaged energy equation. We find that eddies gain energy from the internal wave field at a rate of −2.2 ± 0.6 mW m−2, integrated from the bottom to 566 m below the surface. This result can be decomposed into a positive (eddy to wave) component, equal to 0.2 ± 0.1 mW m−2, driven by horizontal straining of internal waves, and a negative (wave to eddy) component, equal to −2.5 ± 0.6 mW m−2, driven by vertical shearing of the wave spectrum. Temporal variability of the transfer rate is much greater than the mean value. Close to topography, large energy transfers are associated with low-frequency buoyancy fluxes, the underpinning physics of which do not conform to linear wave dynamics and are thereby in need of further research. Our work suggests that eddy–internal wave interactions may play a significant role in the energy balance of the Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy and internal wave fields.
    Description: Funding for DIMES was provided by U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Grants NE/E007058/1 and NE/E005667/1. JMC acknowledges the support of a NERC PhD studentship, and ACNG that of the Royal Society and the Wolfson Foundation. NV acknowledges support from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX) Honours Scholarship and the ANU PBSA Partnership - Spotless Scholarship. CJS acknowledges support from an ARC Discovery Early Career Researcher Award DE180100087 and an Australian National University Futures Scheme award. Numerical simulations were conducted on the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) facility, Canberra, Australia. This study has been conducted using E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments which helped to improve the manuscript significantly. Codes and output files are available online at the project repository (https://github.com/jessecusack/DIMES_eddy_wave_interactions).
    Keywords: Southern Ocean ; Eddies ; Internal waves ; Turbulence
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    A road map to IndOOS-2 better observations of the rapidly warming Indian Ocean (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101(11), (2020): E1891-E1913, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0209.1
    Description: The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), established in 2006, is a multinational network of sustained oceanic measurements that underpin understanding and forecasting of weather and climate for the Indian Ocean region and beyond. Almost one-third of humanity lives around the Indian Ocean, many in countries dependent on fisheries and rain-fed agriculture that are vulnerable to climate variability and extremes. The Indian Ocean alone has absorbed a quarter of the global oceanic heat uptake over the last two decades and the fate of this heat and its impact on future change is unknown. Climate models project accelerating sea level rise, more frequent extremes in monsoon rainfall, and decreasing oceanic productivity. In view of these new scientific challenges, a 3-yr international review of the IndOOS by more than 60 scientific experts now highlights the need for an enhanced observing network that can better meet societal challenges, and provide more reliable forecasts. Here we present core findings from this review, including the need for 1) chemical, biological, and ecosystem measurements alongside physical parameters; 2) expansion into the western tropics to improve understanding of the monsoon circulation; 3) better-resolved upper ocean processes to improve understanding of air–sea coupling and yield better subseasonal to seasonal predictions; and 4) expansion into key coastal regions and the deep ocean to better constrain the basinwide energy budget. These goals will require new agreements and partnerships with and among Indian Ocean rim countries, creating opportunities for them to enhance their monitoring and forecasting capacity as part of IndOOS-2.
    Description: We thank the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and its core project on Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR), the Indian Ocean Global Ocean Observing System (IOGOOS), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC-UNESCO), the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) for providing the financial support to bring international scientists together to conduct this review. We thank the members of the independent review board that provided detailed feedbacks on the review report that is summarized in this article: P. E. Dexter, M. Krug, J. McCreary, R. Matear, C. Moloney, and S. Wijffels. PMEL Contribution 5041. C. Ummenhofer acknowledges support from The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Award for Innovative Research.
    Description: 2021-05-01
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    Hydraulics and mixing of the deep overflow in the Lifamatola Passage of the Indonesian Seas (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(9),(2020): 2797-2814, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0326.1.
    Description: Hydrographic measurements recently acquired along the thalweg of the Lifamatola Passage combined with historical moored velocity measurements immediately downstream of the sill are used to study the hydraulics, transport, mixing, and entrainment in the dense overflow. The observations suggest that the mean overflow is nearly critical at the mooring site, suggesting that a weir formula may be appropriate for estimating the overflow transport. Our assessment suggests that the weir formulas corresponding to a rectangular, triangular, or parabolic cross section all result in transports very close to the observation, suggesting their potential usage in long-term monitoring of the overflow transport or parameterizing the transport in numerical models. Analyses also suggest that deep signals within the overflow layer are blocked by the shear flow from propagating upstream, whereas the shallow wave modes of the full-depth continuously stratified flow are able to propagate upstream from the Banda Sea into the Maluku Sea. Strong mixing is found immediately downstream of the sill crest, with Thorpe-scale-based estimates of the mean dissipation rate within the overflow up to 1.1 × 10−7 W kg−1 and the region-averaged diapycnal diffusivity within the downstream overflow in the range of 2.3 × 10−3 to 10.1 × 10−3 m2 s−1. Mixing in the Lifamatola Passage results in 0.6–1.2-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) entrainment transport added to the overflow, enhancing the deep-water renewal in the Banda Sea. A bulk diffusivity coefficient estimated in the deep Banda Sea yields 1.6 × 10−3 ± 5 × 10−4 m2 s−1, with an associated downward turbulent heat flux of 9 W m−2.
    Description: This study is supported by NSFC (91858204), the CAS Strategic Priority Research Program (XDB42000000), NSFC(41720104008, 41421005, 41876025), QMSNL (2018SDKJ0104-02), and the Shandong Provincial projects (U1606402). L. Pratt was supported by the U.S. NSF Grant OCE-1657870.
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Entrainment ; Internal waves ; Topographic effects ; In situ oceanic observations
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    Best practice strategies for process studies designed to improve climate modeling (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101(10), (2020): E1842-E1850, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0263.1.
    Description: Process studies are designed to improve our understanding of poorly described physical processes that are central to the behavior of the climate system. They typically include coordinated efforts of intensive field campaigns in the atmosphere and/or ocean to collect a carefully planned set of in situ observations. Ideally the observational portion of a process study is paired with numerical modeling efforts that lead to better representation of a poorly simulated or previously neglected physical process in operational and research models. This article provides a framework of best practices to help guide scientists in carrying out more productive, collaborative, and successful process studies. Topics include the planning and implementation of a process study and the associated web of logistical challenges; the development of focused science goals and testable hypotheses; and the importance of assembling an integrated and compatible team with a diversity of social identity, gender, career stage, and scientific background. Guidelines are also provided for scientific data management, dissemination, and stewardship. Above all, developing trust and continual communication within the science team during the field campaign and analysis phase are key for process studies. We consider a successful process study as one that ultimately will improve our quantitative understanding of the mechanisms responsible for climate variability and enhance our ability to represent them in climate models.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge U.S. CLIVAR for supporting the PSMI panel, as well as all the principal investigators that contributed to our PSMI panel webinars. JS was inspired by participation in the process studies funded by NASA NNH18ZDA001N-OSFC and NOAA NA17OAR4310257; GF was supported by base funds to NOAA/AOML’s Physical Oceanography Division; and HS was supported by NOAA NA19OAR4310376 and NA17OAR4310255.
    Description: 2021-04-01
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    Lagrangian perspective on the origins of Denmark Strait Overflow (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(8), (2020): 2393-2414, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0210.1.
    Description: The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) is an important contributor to the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Determining DSO formation and its pathways is not only important for local oceanography but also critical to estimating the state and variability of the AMOC. Despite prior attempts to understand the DSO sources, its upstream pathways and circulation remain uncertain due to short-term (3–5 days) variability. This makes it challenging to study the DSO from observations. Given this complexity, this study maps the upstream pathways and along-pathway changes in its water properties, using Lagrangian backtracking of the DSO sources in a realistic numerical ocean simulation. The Lagrangian pathways confirm that several branches contribute to the DSO from the north such as the East Greenland Current (EGC), the separated EGC (sEGC), and the North Icelandic Jet (NIJ). Moreover, the model results reveal additional pathways from south of Iceland, which supplied over 16% of the DSO annually and over 25% of the DSO during winter of 2008, when the NAO index was positive. The southern contribution is about 34% by the end of March. The southern pathways mark a more direct route from the near-surface subpolar North Atlantic to the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and needs to be explored further, with in situ observations.
    Description: This work was financially supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant Numbers OAC-1835640, OCE-1633124, OCE-1433448, and OCE-1259210.
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Bottom currents ; Lagrangian circulation/transport ; Meridional overturning circulation
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    Whither the Chukchi Slope Current? (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(6),(2020): 1717-1732, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0273.1.
    Description: Recent measurements and modeling indicate that roughly half of the Pacific-origin water exiting the Chukchi Sea shelf through Barrow Canyon forms a westward-flowing current known as the Chukchi Slope Current (CSC), yet the trajectory and fate of this current is presently unknown. In this study, through the combined use of shipboard velocity data and information from five profiling floats deployed as quasi-Lagrangian particles, we delve further into the trajectory and the fate of the CSC. During the period of observation, from early September to early October 2018, the CSC progressed far to the north into the Chukchi Borderland. The northward excursion is believed to result from the current negotiating Hanna Canyon on the Chukchi slope, consistent with potential vorticity dynamics. The volume transport of the CSC, calculated using a set of shipboard transects, decreased from approximately 2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) to near zero over a period of 4 days. This variation can be explained by a concomitant change in the wind stress curl over the Chukchi shelf from positive to negative. After turning northward, the CSC was disrupted and four of the five floats veered offshore, with one of the floats permanently leaving the current. It is hypothesized that the observed disruption was due to an anticyclonic eddy interacting with the CSC, which has been observed previously. These results demonstrate that, at times, the CSC can get entrained into the Beaufort Gyre.
    Description: This work was principally supported by the Stratified Ocean Dynamics of the Arctic (SODA) program under ONR Grant N000141612450. S.B. wants to thank Labex iMust for supporting his research. R.S.P. acknowledges U.S. National Science Foundation Grants OPP-1702371, OPP-1733564, and PLR-1303617. P.L. acknowledges National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Grant NA14-OAR4320158. M.L. acknowledges National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants 41706025 and 41506018. T.P. thanks ENS de Lyon for travel support funding. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Steve Jayne, Pelle Robins, and Alex Ekholm at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution for preparation, deployment, and data provision for the ALTO floats. Chanhyung Jeon assisted in preparing and deploying the floats. The invaluable support of the crew of the R/V Sikuliaq is also gratefully acknowledged.
    Keywords: Arctic ; Continental shelf/slope ; Currents ; Mixing
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    Use of observing system simulation experiments in the United States (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101(8), (2020): E1427-E1438, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0155.1.
    Description: The NOAA Science Advisory Board appointed a task force to prepare a white paper on the use of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Considering the importance and timeliness of this topic and based on this white paper, here we briefly review the use of OSSEs in the United States, discuss their values and limitations, and develop five recommendations for moving forward: national coordination of relevant research efforts, acceleration of OSSE development for Earth system models, consideration of the potential impact on OSSEs of deficiencies in the current data assimilation and prediction system, innovative and new applications of OSSEs, and extension of OSSEs to societal impacts. OSSEs can be complemented by calculations of forecast sensitivity to observations, which simultaneously evaluate the impact of different observation types in a forecast model system.
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    The Western Alboran Gyre: an analysis of its properties and its exchange with surrounding water (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(12), (2020): 3379-3402, https://do.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0028.1.
    Description: One of the largest and most persistent features in the Alboran Sea is the Western Alboran Gyre (WAG), an anticyclonic recirculation bounded by the Atlantic Jet (AJ) to the north and the Moroccan coast to the south. Eulerian budgets from several months of a high-resolution model run are used to examine the exchange of water across the Eulerian WAG’s boundary and the processes affecting the salinity, temperature, and vorticity of the WAG. The volume transport across the sides of the WAG is found to be related to vertical isopycnal movement at the base of the gyre. Advection is found to drive a decay in the salinity minimum and anticyclonic vorticity of the Eulerian WAG. Given the large contributions of advection, a Lagrangian analysis is performed, revealing geometric aspects of the exchange that are hidden in an Eulerian view. In particular, stable and unstable manifolds identify a stirring region around the outer reaches of the gyre where water is exchanged with the WAG on a time scale of weeks. Its complement is an inner core that expands with depth and exchanges water with its surroundings on much longer time scales. The 3D evolution of one parcel, or lobe, of water as it enters the WAG is also described, identifying a general Lagrangian subduction pathway.
    Description: This work was supported on DOD (MURI) Grant N000141110087, ONR Grant N000141812417, and NSF Grant OCE-1558806.
    Description: 2021-05-18
    Keywords: Ocean ; Mediterranean Sea ; Fluxes ; Lagrangian circulation/transport ; General circulation models
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    Cancelation of deglacial thermosteric sea level rise by a barosteric effect (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(12),(2020): 3623-3639, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0173.1
    Description: Sea level rise over the last deglaciation is dominated by the mass of freshwater added to the oceans by the melting of the great ice sheets. While the steric effect of changing seawater density is secondary over the last 20 000 years, processes connected to deglacial warming, the redistribution of salt, and the pressure load of meltwater all influence sea level rise by more than a meter. Here we develop a diagnostic for steric effects that is valid when oceanic mass is changing. This diagnostic accounts for seawater compression due to the added overlying pressure of glacial meltwater, which is here defined to be a barosteric effect. Analysis of three-dimensional global seawater reconstructions of the last deglaciation indicates that thermosteric height change (1.0–1.5 m) is counteracted by barosteric (−1.9 m) and halosteric (from −0.4 to 0.0 m) effects. The total deglacial steric effect from −0.7 to −1.1 m has the opposite sign of analyses that assume that thermosteric expansion is dominant. Despite the vertical oceanic structure not being well constrained during the Last Glacial Maximum, net seawater contraction appears robust as it occurs in four reconstructions that were produced using different paleoceanographic datasets. Calculations that do not account for changes in ocean pressure give the misleading impression that steric effects enhanced deglacial sea level rise.
    Description: GG is supported by NSF OCE-1536380 and OCE-1760878.
    Description: 2021-06-01
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Sea level ; Water masses/storage ; Climate change ; Glaciation ; Water budget/balance
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    Decadal to multidecadal variability of the mixed layer to the south of the Kuroshio Extension region (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(17), (2020): 7697-7714, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0115.1.
    Description: The decadal to multidecadal mixed layer variability is investigated in a region south of the Kuroshio Extension (130°E–180°, 25°–35°N), an area where the North Pacific subtropical mode water forms, during 1948–2012. By analyzing the mixed layer heat budget with different observational and reanalysis data, here we show that the decadal to multidecadal variability of the mixed layer temperature and mixed layer depth is covaried with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), instead of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The mixed layer temperature has strong decadal to multidecadal variability, being warm before 1970 and after 1990 (AMO positive phase) and cold during 1970–90 (AMO negative phase), and so does the mixed layer depth. The dominant process for the mixed layer temperature decadal to multidecadal variability is the Ekman advection, which is controlled by the zonal wind changes related to the AMO. The net heat flux into the ocean surface Qnet acts as a damping term and it is mainly from the effect of latent heat flux and partially from sensible heat flux. While the wind as well as mixed layer temperature decadal changes related to the PDO are weak in the western Pacific Ocean. Our finding proposes the possible influence of the AMO on the northwestern Pacific Ocean mixed layer variability, and could be a potential predictor for the decadal to multidecadal climate variability in the western Pacific Ocean.
    Description: Xiaopei Lin is supported by the China’s national key research and development projects (2016YFA0601803) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41925025 and U1606402). Baolan Wu is supported by the China Scholarship Council (201806330010). Lisan Yu thanks NOAA for support for her study on climate change and variability.
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Boundary currents ; Hadley circulation ; Ocean dynamics ; Teleconnections
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    The evolution of a buoyant river plume in response to a pulse of high discharge from a small midlatitude river (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(7),(2020): 1915-1935, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0127.1.
    Description: A unique feature of small mountainous rivers is that discharge can be elevated by an order of magnitude during a large rain event. The impact of time-varying discharge on freshwater transport pathways and alongshore propagation rates in the coastal ocean is not well understood. A suite of simulations in an idealized coastal ocean domain using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with varying steady background discharge conditions (25–100 m3 s−1), pulse amplitude (200–800 m3 s−1), pulse duration (1–6 days), and steady downwelling-favorable winds (0–4 m s−1) are compared to investigate the downstream freshwater transport along the coast (in the direction of Kelvin wave propagation) following a discharge pulse from the river. The nose of the pulse propagates rapidly alongshore at 0.04–0.32 m s−1 (faster propagation corresponds with larger pulse volume and faster winds) transporting 13%–66% of the discharge. The remainder of the discharge volume initially accumulates in the bulge near the river mouth, with lower retention for longer pulse duration and stronger winds. Following the pulse, the bulge eddy disconnects from the river mouth and is advected downstream at 0–0.1 m s−1, equal to the depth-averaged wind-driven ambient water velocity. As it transits alongshore, it sheds freshwater volume farther downstream and the alongshore freshwater transport stays elevated between the nose and the transient bulge eddy. The evolution of freshwater transport at a plume cross section can be described by the background discharge, the passage of the pulse nose, and a slow exponential return to background conditions.
    Description: Support for this research was provided by National Science Foundation Grants OCE1131238, OCE1260394, and OCE1829979.
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    The influence of an eddy in the success rates and distributions of passively advected or actively swimming biological organisms crossing the continental slope (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(7), (2020): 1839-1852, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0209.1.
    Description: The Lagrangian characteristics of the surface flow field arising when an idealized, anticyclonic, mesoscale, isolated deep-ocean eddy collides with continental slope and shelf topography are explored. In addition to fluid parcel trajectories, we consider the trajectories of biological organisms that are able to navigate and swim, and for which shallow water is a destination. Of particular interest is the movement of organisms initially located in the offshore eddy, the manner in which the eddy influences the ability of the organisms to reach the shelf break, and the spatial and temporal distributions of organisms that do so. For nonswimmers or very slow swimmers, the organisms arrive at the shelf break in distinct pulses, with different pulses occurring at different locations along the shelf break. This phenomenon is closely related to the episodic formation of trailing vortices that are formed after the eddy collides with the continental slope, turns, and travels parallel to the coast. Analysis based on finite-time Lyapunov exponents reveals initial locations of all successful trajectories reaching the shoreline, and provides maps of the transport pathways showing that much of the cross-shelf-break transport occurs in the lee of the eddy as it moves parallel to the shore. The same analysis shows that the onshore transport is interrupted after a trailing vortex detaches. As the swimming speeds are increased, the organisms are influenced less by the eddy and tend to show up en mass and in a single pulse.
    Description: IR and LP were supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant OCE-1558806. DC was supported by NSF U.S. National Science Foundation’s Physical Oceanography program through Grants OCE-1059632 and OCE-1433953 as well as the Academic Programs Office, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. We acknowledge high-performance computing support from Yellowstone (http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7wd3xhc) provided by NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Ocean ; Eddies ; Nonlinear dynamics ; Transport
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    Depth structure of Ningaloo Niño/Niña events and associated drivers (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 34(5), (2021): 1767-1788, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1020.1.
    Description: Marine heatwaves along the coast of Western Australia, referred to as Ningaloo Niño, have had dramatic impacts on the ecosystem in the recent decade. A number of local and remote forcing mechanisms have been put forward; however, little is known about the depth structure of such temperature extremes. Utilizing an eddy-active global ocean general circulation model, Ningaloo Niño and the corresponding cold Ningaloo Niña events are investigated between 1958 and 2016, with a focus on their depth structure. The relative roles of buoyancy and wind forcing are inferred from sensitivity experiments. Composites reveal a strong symmetry between cold and warm events in their vertical structure and associated large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature anomalies are largest at the surface, where buoyancy forcing is dominant, and extend down to 300-m depth (or deeper), with wind forcing being the main driver. Large-scale subsurface anomalies arise from a vertical modulation of the thermocline, extending from the western Pacific into the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The strongest Ningaloo Niños in 2000 and 2011 are unprecedented compound events, where long-lasting high temperatures are accompanied by extreme freshening, which emerges in association with La Niñas, that is more common and persistent during the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. It is shown that Ningaloo Niños during La Niña phases have a distinctively deeper reach and are associated with a strengthening of the Leeuwin Current, while events during El Niño are limited to the surface layer temperatures, likely driven by local atmosphere–ocean feedbacks, without a clear imprint on salinity and velocity.
    Description: The following support is gratefully acknowledged: the Feodor-Lynen Fellowship by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation and the WHOI Postdoctoral Scholar program (to SR), the Office of Naval Research under project number N-00014-19-12646 (to GG), the James E. and Barbara V. Moltz Fellowship for Climate-Related Research (to CCU), and IndoArchipel from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) as part of the Special Priority Program (SPP)-1889 “Regional Sea Level Change and Society” (SeaLevel) (for PW).
    Keywords: Ocean ; Australia ; Indian Ocean ; Extreme events ; General circulation models ; Ocean models
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    Accuracy and long-term stability assessment of inductive conductivity cell measurements on Argo Floats (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nezlin, N. P., Dever, M., Halverson, M., Leconte, J., Maze, G., Richards, C., Shkvorets, I., Zhang, R., & Johnson, G. Accuracy and long-term stability assessment of inductive conductivity cell measurements on Argo Floats. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 37(12), (2020): 2209-2223, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0058.1.
    Description: This study demonstrates the long-term stability of salinity measurements from Argo floats equipped with inductive conductivity cells, which have extended float lifetimes as compared to electrode-type cells. New Argo float sensor payloads must meet the demands of the Argo governance committees before they are implemented globally. Currently, the use of CTDs with inductive cells designed and manufactured by RBR, Ltd., has been approved as a Global Argo Pilot. One requirement for new sensors is to demonstrate stable measurements over the lifetime of a float. To demonstrate this, data from four Argo floats in the western Pacific Ocean equipped with the RBRargo CTD sensor package are analyzed using the same Owens–Wong–Cabanes (OWC) method and reference datasets as the Argo delayed-mode quality control (DMQC) operators. When run with default settings against the standard DMQC Argo and CTD databases, the OWC analysis reveals no drift in any of the four RBRargo datasets and, in one case, an offset exceeding the Argo target salinity limits. Being a statistical tool, the OWC method cannot strictly determine whether deviations in salinity measurements with respect to a reference hydrographic product (e.g., climatologies) are caused by oceanographic variability or sensor problems. So, this study furthermore investigates anomalous salinity measurements observed when compared with a reference product and demonstrates that anomalous values tend to occur in regions with a high degree of variability and can be better explained by imperfect reference data rather than sensor drift. This study concludes that the RBR inductive cell is a viable option for salinity measurements as part of the Argo program.
    Description: Author Dr. G. Maze was supported by the EARISE project, a European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement 824131, Call INFRADEV-03-2018-2019: Individual support to ESFRI and other world-class research infrastructures. We acknowledge Susan Wijffels, who provided advice on reference climatologies, coordinated access to the data from Argo Australia float 5904925, and provided ship CTD data to evaluate the initial accuracy of the float. Toshio Suga and Shigeki Hosoda provided ship CTD data for assessing the initial accuracy of Japan Argo floats 2903005 and 2903327. We thank Zenghong Liu for coordinating access to ship CTD data and continued discussion regarding RBRargo CTD accuracy and stability. We thank IFREMER for providing us access to ADMT-CTD and ADMT-Argo reference datasets.
    Keywords: Pacific Ocean ; Salinity ; Instrumentation/sensors ; Profilers, oceanic ; Quality assurance/control
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    Improving Australian rainfall prediction using sea surface salinity (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 34(7), (2021): 2473-2490, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0625.1.
    Description: This study uses sea surface salinity (SSS) as an additional precursor for improving the prediction of summer [December–February (DJF)] rainfall over northeastern Australia. From a singular value decomposition between SSS of prior seasons and DJF rainfall, we note that SSS of the Indo-Pacific warm pool region [SSSP (150°E–165°W and 10°S–10°N) and SSSI (50°–95°E and 10°S–10°N)] covaries with Australian rainfall, particularly in the northeast region. Composite analysis that is based on high or low SSS events in the SSSP and SSSI regions is performed to understand the physical links between the SSS and the atmospheric moisture originating from the regions of anomalously high or low, respectively, SSS and precipitation over Australia. The composites show the signature of co-occurring La Niña and negative Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously wet conditions over Australia and conversely show the signature of co-occurring El Niño and positive Indian Ocean dipole with anomalously dry conditions there. During the high SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the convergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously wet conditions over Australia with a positive soil moisture anomaly. Conversely, during the low SSS events of the SSSP and SSSI regions, the divergence of incoming moisture flux results in anomalously dry conditions over Australia with a negative soil moisture anomaly. We show from the random-forest regression analysis that the local soil moisture, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and SSSP are the most important precursors for the northeast Australian rainfall whereas for the Brisbane region ENSO, SSSP, and the Indian Ocean dipole are the most important. The prediction of Australian rainfall using random-forest regression shows an improvement by including SSS from the prior season. This evidence suggests that sustained observations of SSS can improve the monitoring of the Australian regional hydrological cycle.
    Description: This research is funded through the Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australian government’s National Environmental Science Programme. The assistance of computing resources from the National Computational Infrastructure supported by the Australian Government is acknowledged. Author Ummenhofer acknowledges support from the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-1663704. Author Feng was supported by the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), which is a joint initiative between the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), CSIRO, University of New South Wales, and the University of Tasmania. The authors also acknowledge Dr. Manali Pal for technical discussion on machine learning.
    Description: 2021-09-01
    Keywords: ENSO ; Flood events ; Hydrologic cycle ; Machine learning ; Rainfall ; Salinity ; Seasonal forecasting ; Soil moisture
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    Upper-ocean response to precipitation forcing in an ocean model hindcast of Hurricane Gonzalo (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(11),(2020): 3219–3234, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-19-0277.1.
    Description: Preexisting, oceanic barrier layers have been shown to limit turbulent mixing and suppress mixed layer cooling during the forced stage of a tropical cyclone (TC). Furthermore, an understanding of barrier layer evolution during TC passage is mostly unexplored. High precipitation rates within TCs provide a large freshwater flux to the surface that alters upper-ocean stratification and can act as a potential mechanism to strengthen the barrier layer. Ocean glider observations from the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS) indicate that a strong barrier layer developed during the approach and passage of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014), primarily as a result of freshening within the upper 30 m of the ocean. Therefore, an ocean model case study of Hurricane Gonzalo has been designed to investigate how precipitation affects upper-ocean stratification and sea surface temperature (SST) cooling during TC passage. Ocean model hindcasts of Hurricane Gonzalo characterize the upper-ocean response to TC precipitation forcing. Three different vertical mixing parameterizations are tested to determine their sensitivity to precipitation forcing. For all turbulent mixing schemes, TC precipitation produces near-surface freshening of about 0.3 psu, which is consistent with previous studies and in situ ocean observations. The influence of precipitation-induced changes to the SST response is more complicated, but generally modifies SSTs by ±0.3°C. Precipitation forcing creates a dynamical coupling between upper-ocean stratification and current shear that is largely responsible for the heterogeneous response in modeled SSTs.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA; Grant NNX15AD45G) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; Grant NA11OAR4320199).
    Keywords: Air-sea interaction ; Hurricanes/typhoons ; Salinity ; Ocean models
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  • 39
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    Intraseasonal sea level variability in the Persian Gulf (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(5), (2021): 1687–1704, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0296.1.
    Description: Satellite observations are used to establish the dominant magnitudes, scales, and mechanisms of intraseasonal variability in ocean dynamic sea level (ζ) in the Persian Gulf over 2002–15. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to altimetry data reveals a basinwide, single-signed intraseasonal fluctuation that contributes importantly to ζ variance in the Persian Gulf at monthly to decadal time scales. An EOF analysis of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observations over the same period returns a similar large-scale mode of intraseasonal variability, suggesting that the basinwide intraseasonal ζ variation has a predominantly barotropic nature. A linear barotropic theory is developed to interpret the data. The theory represents Persian Gulf average ζ (¯ζ) in terms of local freshwater flux, barometric pressure, and wind stress forcing, as well as ζ at the boundary in the Gulf of Oman. The theory is tested using a multiple linear regression with these freshwater flux, barometric pressure, wind stress, and boundary ζ quantities as input and ¯ζ as output. The regression explains 70% ± 9% (95% confidence interval) of the intraseasonal ¯ζ variance. Numerical values of regression coefficients computed empirically from the data are consistent with theoretical expectations from first principles. Results point to a substantial nonisostatic response to surface loading. The Gulf of Oman ζ boundary condition shows lagged correlation with ζ upstream along the Indian subcontinent, Maritime Continent, and equatorial Indian Ocean, suggesting a large-scale Indian Ocean influence on intraseasonal ¯ζ variation mediated by coastal and equatorial waves and hinting at potential predictability. This study highlights the value of GRACE for understanding sea level in an understudied marginal sea.
    Description: The authors acknowledge support from NASA through the Sea Level Change Team (Grant 80NSSC20K1241) and GRACE Follow-On Science Team (Grant 80NSSC20K0728). The authors appreciate comments from two anonymous reviewers that improved the manuscript.
    Keywords: Coastlines ; Sea level ; Satellite observations ; Intraseasonal variability
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    On the estimation of deep Atlantic ventilation from fossil radiocarbon records. Part II: (in)consistency with modern estimates (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(8), (2021): 2681–2704, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0314.1.
    Description: Measurements of radiocarbon concentration (Δ14C) in fossil biogenic carbonates have been interpreted as reflecting a reduced ventilation of the deep Atlantic during the last ice age. Here we evaluate the (in)consistency of an updated compilation of fossil Δ14C data for the last deglaciation with the abyssal circulation in the modern Atlantic. A Δ14C transport equation, in which the mean velocity field is a modern field estimate and turbulent flux divergence is treated as a random fluctuation, is fitted to deglacial Δ14C records by using recursive weighted least squares. This approach allows us to interpret the records in terms of deviations from the modern flow with due regard for uncertainties in the fossil data, the Δ14C transport equation, and its boundary conditions. We find that the majority of fit residuals could be explained by uncertainties in fossil Δ14C data, for two distinct estimates of the modern flow and of the error variance in the boundary conditions. Thus, most, not all, deglacial data appear consistent with present-day ventilation rates. From 20% to 32% of the residuals exceed in magnitude the published errors in the fossil data by a factor of 2. Residuals below 4000 m in the western North Atlantic are all negative, suggesting that deglacial Δ14C values from this region are too low to be explained by modern ventilation. While deep water ventilation appeared different from today at some locations, a larger database and a better understanding of error (co)variances are needed to make reliable paleoceanographic inferences from fossil Δ14C records.
    Description: This study has been supported by Grant OCE-1702417 from the U.S. National Science Foundation.
    Description: 2022-02-01
    Keywords: Atlantic Ocean ; Abyssal circulation ; Inverse methods ; Tracers
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    An idealized modeling study of the midlatitude variability of the wind-driven meridional overturning circulation (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 51(8),(2021): 2425–2441, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-20-0317.1.
    Description: The frequency and latitudinal dependence of the midlatitude wind-driven meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is studied using theory and linear and nonlinear applications of a quasigeostrophic numerical model. Wind forcing is varied either by changing the strength of the wind or by shifting the meridional location of the wind stress curl pattern. At forcing periods of less than the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave basin crossing time scale, the linear response in the middepth and deep ocean is in phase and opposite to the Ekman transport. For forcing periods that are close to the Rossby wave basin crossing time scale, the upper and deep MOC are enhanced, and the middepth MOC becomes phase shifted, relative to the Ekman transport. At longer forcing periods the deep MOC weakens and the middepth MOC increases, but eventually for long enough forcing periods (decadal) the entire wind-driven MOC spins down. Nonlinearities and mesoscale eddies are found to be important in two ways. First, baroclinic instability causes the middepth MOC to weaken, lose correlation with the Ekman transport, and lose correlation with the MOC in the opposite gyre. Second, eddy thickness fluxes extend the MOC beyond the latitudes of direct wind forcing. These results are consistent with several recent studies describing the four-dimensional structure of the MOC in the North Atlantic Ocean.
    Description: This study was supported by National Science Foundation Grant OCE-1947290.
    Description: 2022-01-13
    Keywords: Eddies ; Large-scale motions ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean dynamics ; Planetary waves
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    The neutrally buoyant sediment trap: two decades of progress (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Estapa, M., Valdes, J., Tradd, K., Sugar, J., Omand, M., & Buesseler, K. The neutrally buoyant sediment trap: two decades of progress. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 37(6), (2020): 957-973, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-19-0118.1.
    Description: The biological carbon flux from the ocean’s surface into its interior has traditionally been sampled by sediment traps, which physically intercept sinking particulate matter. However, the manner in which a sediment trap interacts with the flow field around it can introduce hydrodynamic biases, motivating the development of neutral, self-ballasting trap designs. Here, the performance of one of these designs, the neutrally buoyant sediment trap (NBST), is described and evaluated. The NBST has been successfully used in a number of scientific studies since a prototype was last described in the literature two decades ago, with extensive modifications in subsequent years. Originated at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the NBST is built around a profiling float and carries cylindrical collection tubes, a feature that distinguishes it from other neutral traps described in the literature. This paper documents changes to the device that have been implemented over the last two decades, including wider trap tubes; Iridium Communications, Inc., satellite communications; and the addition of polyacrylamide gel collectors and optical sedimentation sensors. Information is also provided with the intent of aiding the development of similar devices by other researchers, including the present adaptation of the concept to utilize commercially available profiling float hardware. The performance of NBSTs built around commercial profiling floats is comparable to NBSTs built around customized floats, albeit with some additional operational considerations. Data from recent field studies comparing NBSTs and traditional, surface-tethered sediment traps are used to illustrate the performance of the instrument design. Potential improvements to the design that remain to be incorporated through future work are also outlined.
    Description: Funding supporting this work has come from multiple sources over the years: the NSF Chemical Oceanography and Carbon and Water programs (most recently OCE-1660012 and OCE-1659995), the NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry and New Investigator programs (80NSSC17K0662 and NNX14AM01G), and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Technology Award.
    Keywords: In situ oceanic observations ; Instrumentation/sensors ; Measurements ; Profilers, oceanic ; Sampling
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    Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(22), (2020): 9883-9903, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0004.1.
    Description: Machine-learning-based methods that identify drought in three-dimensional space–time are applied to climate model simulations and tree-ring-based reconstructions of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics for the past 1000 years, as well as twenty-first-century projections. Analyzing reconstructed and simulated drought in this context provides a paleoclimate constraint on the spatiotemporal characteristics of simulated droughts. Climate models project that there will be large increases in the persistence and severity of droughts over the coming century, but with little change in their spatial extent. Nevertheless, climate models exhibit biases in the spatiotemporal characteristics of persistent and severe droughts over parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We use the paleoclimate record and results from a linear inverse modeling-based framework to conclude that climate models underestimate the range of potential future hydroclimate states. Complicating this picture, however, are divergent changes in the characteristics of persistent and severe droughts when quantified using different hydroclimate metrics. Collectively our results imply that these divergent responses and the aforementioned biases must be better understood if we are to increase confidence in future hydroclimate projections. Importantly, the novel framework presented herein can be applied to other climate features to robustly describe their spatiotemporal characteristics and provide constraints on future changes to those characteristics.
    Description: This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement 1852977. JAF was also supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1844590. JS was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation through Grants AGS-1602920 and AGS-1805490, and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration by Grant NA20OAR4310425. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portal. We thank the editor and two reviewers for comments that greatly improved the quality of this manuscript. This is SOEST Publication No. 11116 and LDEO Publication No. 8450.
    Description: 2021-04-15
    Keywords: Drought ; Climate change ; Paleoclimate ; Climate models ; Climate variability ; Other artificial intelligence/machine learning
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    Near-surface salinity reveals the oceanic sources of moisture for Australian precipitation through atmospheric moisture transport (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(15), (2020): 6707-6730, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0579.1.
    Description: The long-term trend of sea surface salinity (SSS) reveals an intensification of the global hydrological cycle due to human-induced climate change. This study demonstrates that SSS variability can also be used as a measure of terrestrial precipitation on interseasonal to interannual time scales, and to locate the source of moisture. Seasonal composites during El Niño–Southern Oscillation/Indian Ocean dipole (ENSO/IOD) events are used to understand the variations of moisture transport and precipitation over Australia, and their association with SSS variability. As ENSO/IOD events evolve, patterns of positive or negative SSS anomaly emerge in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and are accompanied by atmospheric moisture transport anomalies toward Australia. During co-occurring La Niña and negative IOD events, salty anomalies around the Maritime Continent (north of Australia) indicate freshwater export and are associated with a significant moisture transport that converges over Australia to create anomalous wet conditions. In contrast, during co-occurring El Niño and positive IOD events, a moisture transport divergence anomaly over Australia results in anomalous dry conditions. The relationship between SSS and atmospheric moisture transport also holds for pure ENSO/IOD events but varies in magnitude and spatial pattern. The significant pattern correlation between the moisture flux divergence and SSS anomaly during the ENSO/IOD events highlights the associated ocean–atmosphere coupling. A case study of the extreme hydroclimatic events of Australia (e.g., the 2010/11 Brisbane flood) demonstrates that the changes in SSS occur before the peak of ENSO/IOD events. This raises the prospect that tracking of SSS variability could aid the prediction of Australian rainfall.
    Description: This research is funded through the Earth System and Climate Change Hub of the Australian government’s National Environmental Science Programme. The assistance of computing resources from the National Computational Infrastructure supported by the Australian Government is acknowledged. CCU acknowledges support from the U.S. National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-1663704. MF was supported by the by Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), which is a joint initiative between the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), CSIRO, University of New South Wales and University of Tasmania. The authors wish to acknowledge PyFerret (https://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/Ferret/) and the Cimate Data Operators (https://code.mpimet.mpg.de/projects/cdo/) for the data analysis and graphical representations in this paper.
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; El Nino ; Extreme events ; La Nina ; Precipitation ; Salinity
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    Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Liang, Y., Kwon, Y., & Frankignoul, C. Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition. Journal of Climate, 34(2), (2021): 787-804, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0172.1.
    Description: This study uses observational and reanalysis datasets in 1980–2016 to show a close connection between a boreal autumn sea ice dipole in the Arctic Pacific sector and sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea (BS) during the following spring. The September–October Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole variations are highly correlated with the subsequent April–May BS sea ice variations (r = 0.71). The strong connection between the regional sea ice variabilities across the Arctic uncovers a new source of predictability for spring BS sea ice prediction at 7-month lead time. A cross-validated linear regression prediction model using the Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole with 7-month lead time is demonstrated to have significant prediction skills with 0.54–0.85 anomaly correlation coefficients. The autumn sea ice dipole, manifested as sea ice retreat in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and expansion in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, is primarily forced by preceding atmospheric shortwave anomalies from late spring to early autumn. The spring BS sea ice increases are mostly driven by an ocean-to-sea ice heat flux reduction in preceding months, associated with reduced horizontal ocean heat transport into the BS. The dynamical linkage between the two regional sea ice anomalies is suggested to involve positive stratospheric polar cap anomalies during autumn and winter, with its center slowly moving toward Greenland. The migration of the stratospheric anomalies is followed in midwinter by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the troposphere, leading to reduced ocean heat transport into the BS and sea ice extent increase.
    Description: This study is supported by NSF’s Office of Polar Programs (Grant 1736738). We also acknowledge support by the Blue-Action project (European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Grant 727852).
    Keywords: Arctic ; Sea ice ; Atmospheric circulation ; Ocean circulation ; Seasonal forecasting
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    How spice is stirred in the Bay of Bengal (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(9), (2020): 2669-2688, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0077.1
    Description: The scale-dependent variance of tracer properties in the ocean bears the imprint of the oceanic eddy field. Anomalies in spice (which combines anomalies in temperature T and salinity S on isopycnal surfaces) act as passive tracers beneath the surface mixed layer (ML). We present an analysis of spice distributions along isopycnals in the upper 200 m of the ocean, calculated with over 9000 vertical profiles of T and S measured along ~4800 km of ship tracks in the Bay of Bengal. The data are from three separate research cruises—in the winter monsoon season of 2013 and in the late and early summer monsoon seasons of 2015 and 2018. We present a spectral analysis of horizontal tracer variance statistics on scales ranging from the submesoscale (~1 km) to the mesoscale (~100 km). Isopycnal layers that are closer to the ML-base exhibit redder spectra of tracer variance at scales ≲10 km than is predicted by theories of quasigeostrophic turbulence or frontogenesis. Two plausible explanations are postulated. The first is that stirring by submesoscale motions and shear dispersion by near-inertial waves enhance effective horizontal mixing and deplete tracer variance at horizontal scales ≲10 km in this region. The second is that the spice anomalies are coherent with dynamical properties such as potential vorticity, and not interpretable as passively stirred.
    Description: We are grateful to the captain and crew of the R/V Roger Revelle and the R/V Thomas G. Thompson, and all ASIRI-OMM and MISO-BOB scientists. We thank Prof. Andrew Thompson and an anonymous reviewer for suggestions that improved the manuscript. This work was carried out under the Office of Naval Research’s Air-Sea Interaction Regional Initiative (ASIRI) and Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BOB) research initiatives, in collaboration with the Indian Ministry of Earth Science’s Ocean Mixing and Monsoons (OMM) initiative supported by the Monsoon Mission. Support came from ONR Grants N00014-16-1-2470, N00014-13-1-0451, N00014-17-1-2390 (G.S.J. and A.M.), N00014-14-1-0455 (J.M. and J.N), N00014-17-1-2511 (J.M.), N00014-13-1-0489, N00014-17-1-2391 (A.L.), N00014-15-1-2634 (E.S.), N00014-13-1-0456, N00014-17-1-2355 (A.T.), and N00014-13-1-0453, N00014-17-1-2880 (J.F.).
    Description: 2021-02-28
    Keywords: Ocean dynamics ; Thermocline ; Water masses/storage ; In situ oceanic observations ; Tracers ; Spectral analysis/models/distribution
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    Saildrone: adaptively sampling the marine environment (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101(6), (2020): E744-E762, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0015.1.
    Description: From 11 April to 11 June 2018 a new type of ocean observing platform, the Saildrone surface vehicle, collected data on a round-trip, 60-day cruise from San Francisco Bay, down the U.S. and Mexican coast to Guadalupe Island. The cruise track was selected to optimize the science team’s validation and science objectives. The validation objectives include establishing the accuracy of these new measurements. The scientific objectives include validation of satellite-derived fluxes, sea surface temperatures, and wind vectors and studies of upwelling dynamics, river plumes, air–sea interactions including frontal regions, and diurnal warming regions. On this deployment, the Saildrone carried 16 atmospheric and oceanographic sensors. Future planned cruises (with open data policies) are focused on improving our understanding of air–sea fluxes in the Arctic Ocean and around North Brazil Current rings.
    Description: The Saildrone data collection mission was sponsored by the Saildrone Award, an annual data collection mission awarded by Saildrone Inc., and the Schmidt Family Foundation. The research was funded by the NASA Physical Oceanography Program Grant 80NSSC18K0837 and 80NSSC18K1441. The work by T. M. Chin, J. Vazquez-Cuerzo, and V. Tsontos was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Piero L.F. Mazzini was supported by California Sea Grant Award NA18OAR4170073. We thank CeNCOOS for providing the HF radar data in the Gulf of the Farallones. Jose Gomez-Valdes was supported by CONACYT Grant 257125, and by CICESE. Work by Joel Scott and Ivona Cetinic was supported through NASA PACE. The work by Lisan Yu was supported by NOAA Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division under Grant NA14OAR4320158.
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    On the vertical velocity and nutrient delivery in warm core rings (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 50(6), (2020): 1557-1582, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0239.1.
    Description: We examine various contributions to the vertical velocity field within large mesoscale eddies by analyzing multiple solutions to an idealized numerical model of a representative anticyclonic warm core Gulf Stream ring. Initial conditions are constructed to reproduce the observed density and nutrient profiles collected during the Warm Core Rings Program. The contributions to vertical fluxes diagnosed from the numerical simulations are compared against a divergence-based, semidiagnostic equation and a generalized omega equation to better understand the dynamics of the vertical velocity field. Frictional decay alone is found to be ineffective in raising isopycnals and transporting nutrients to the upper ocean. With representative wind forcing, the magnitude of vorticity gradient–induced Ekman pumping is not necessarily larger than the current-induced counterpart on a time scale relevant to ecosystem response. Under realistic forcing conditions, strain deformation can perturb the ring to be noncircular and induce vertical velocities much larger than the Ekman vertical velocities. Nutrient budget diagnosis, together with analysis of the relative magnitudes of the various types of vertical fluxes, allows us to describe the time-scale dependence of nutrient delivery. At time scales that are relevant to individual phytoplankton (from hours to days), the magnitudes of nutrient flux by Ekman velocities and deformation-induced velocities are comparable. Over the life span of a typical warm core ring, which can span multiple seasons, surface current–induced Ekman pumping is the most effective mechanism in upper-ocean nutrient enrichment because of its persistence in the center of anticyclones regardless of the direction of the wind forcing.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation Ocean Science Division under Grant OCE-1558960. PG also acknowledges support of the NASA Physical Oceanography Program Grant NNX16H59G. KC would like to thank D. McGillicuddy Jr. for inspiring discussions and suggestions during the course of this study. Constructive comments from two anonymous reviewers are appreciated.
    Keywords: Ageostrophic circulations ; Eddies ; Ekman pumping/transport ; Mesoscale processes ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Vertical motion
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    Tracking air-sea exchange and upper-ocean variability in the Indonesian-Australian basin during the onset of the 2018/19 Australian summer monsoon (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101(8), (2020): E1397-E1412, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0278.1.
    Description: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) north of Australia in the Indonesian–Australian Basin are significantly influenced by Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), an eastward-moving atmospheric disturbance that traverses the globe in the tropics. The region also has large-amplitude diurnal SST variations, which may influence the air–sea heat and moisture fluxes, that provide feedback to the MJO evolution. During the 2018/19 austral summer, a field campaign aiming to better understand the influences of air–sea coupling on the MJO was conducted north of Australia in the Indonesian–Australian Basin. Surface meteorology from buoy observations and upper-ocean data from autonomous fast-profiling float observations were collected. Two MJO convective phases propagated eastward across the region in mid-December 2018 and late January 2019 and the second MJO was in conjunction with a tropical cyclone development. Observations showed that SST in the region was rather sensitive to the MJO forcing. Air–sea heat fluxes warmed the SST throughout the 2018/19 austral summer, punctuated by the MJO activities, with a 2°–3°C drop in SST during the two MJO events. Substantial diurnal SST variations during the suppressed phases of the MJOs were observed, and the near-surface thermal stratifications provided positive feedback for the peak diurnal SST amplitude, which may be a mechanism to influence the MJO evolution. Compared to traditionally vessel-based observation programs, we have relied on fast-profiling floats as the main vehicle in measuring the upper-ocean variability from diurnal to the MJO time scales, which may pave the way for using cost-effective technology in similar process studies.
    Description: MF, SW, and JH are supported by the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), which is a joint initiative between the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), CSIRO, University of New South Wales, and University of Tasmania. Y. Duan is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (41706032) and Basic Scientific Fund for National Public Research Institutes of China (2019Q03).
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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    Multispecies Coalescent: Theory and Applications in Phylogenetics (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: Species tree estimation is a basic part of many biological research projects, ranging from answering basic evolutionary questions (e.g., how did a group of species adapt to their environments?) to addressing questions in functional biology. Yet, species tree estimation is very challenging, due to processes such as incomplete lineage sorting, gene duplication and loss, horizontal gene transfer, and hybridization, which can make gene trees differ from each other and from the overall evolutionary history of the species. Over the last 10–20 years, there has been tremendous growth in methods and mathematical theory for estimating species trees and phylogenetic networks, and some of these methods are now in wide use. In this survey, we provide an overview of the current state of the art, identify the limitations of existing methods and theory, and propose additional research problems and directions. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 52 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1543-592X
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-2069
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Annual Reviews
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    Banks and Negative Interest Rates (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: In this article, we review the nascent literature on the transmission of negative policy rates. We discuss the theory of how the transmission depends on bank balance sheets, and how this changes once policy rates become negative. We review the growing evidence that negative policy rates are special because the pass-through to banks’ retail deposit rates is hindered by a zero lower bound. We summarize existing research on the impact of negative rates on banks’ lending and securities portfolios as well as their consequences for the real economy. Finally, we discuss the role of different initial conditions when the policy rate becomes negative, and potential interactions between negative policy rates and other unconventional monetary policies. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 13 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1941-1367
    Electronic ISSN: 1941-1375
    Topics: Economics
    Published by Annual Reviews
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  • 52
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    Regulatory Themes and Variations by the Stress-Signaling Nucleotide Alarmones (p)ppGpp in Bacteria (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: Bacterial stress-signaling alarmones are important components of a protective network against diverse stresses such as nutrient starvation and antibiotic assault. pppGpp and ppGpp, collectively (p)ppGpp, have well-documented regulatory roles in gene expression and protein translation. Recent work has highlighted another key function of (p)ppGpp: inducing rapid and coordinated changes in cellular metabolism by regulating enzymatic activities, especially those involved in purine nucleotide synthesis. Failure of metabolic regulation by (p)ppGpp results in the loss of coordination between metabolic and macromolecular processes, leading to cellular toxicity. In this review, we document how (p)ppGpp and newly characterized nucleotides pGpp and (p)ppApp directly regulate these enzymatic targets for metabolic remodeling. We examine targets’ common determinants for alarmone interaction as well as their evolutionary diversification. We highlight classical and emerging themes in nucleotide signaling, including oligomerization and allostery along with metabolic interconversion and crosstalk, illustrating how they allow optimized bacterial adaptation to their environmental niches. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Genetics, Volume 55 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 0066-4197
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-2948
    Topics: Biology
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    The History of Ocean Oxygenation (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: The large-scale dynamics of ocean oxygenation have changed dramatically throughout Earth's history, in step with major changes in the abundance of O2 in the atmosphere and changes to marine nutrient availability. A comprehensive mechanistic understanding of this history requires insights from oceanography, marine geology, geochemistry, geomicrobiology, evolutionary ecology, and Earth system modeling. Here, we attempt to synthesize the major features of evolving ocean oxygenation on Earth through more than 3 billion years of planetary history. We review the fundamental first-order controls on ocean oxygen distribution and summarize the current understanding of the history of ocean oxygenation on Earth from empirical and theoretical perspectives—integrating geochemical reconstructions of oceanic and atmospheric chemistry, genomic constraints on evolving microbial metabolism, and mechanistic biogeochemical models. These changes are used to illustrate primary regimes of large-scale ocean oxygenation and to highlight feedbacks that can act to stabilize and destabilize the ocean–atmosphere system in anoxic, low-oxygen, and high-oxygen states. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 14 is January 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1941-1405
    Electronic ISSN: 1941-0611
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Published by Annual Reviews
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    The Physiology and Biogeochemistry of SUP05 (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: The SUP05 clade of gammaproteobacteria (Thioglobaceae) comprises both primary producers and primary consumers of organic carbon in the oceans. Host-associated autotrophs are a principal source of carbon and other nutrients for deep-sea eukaryotes at hydrothermal vents, and their free-living relatives are a primary source of organic matter in seawater at vents and in marine oxygen minimum zones. Similar to other abundant marine heterotrophs, such as SAR11 and Roseobacter, heterotrophic Thioglobaceae use the dilute pool of osmolytes produced by phytoplankton for growth, including methylated amines and sulfonates. Heterotrophic members are common throughout the ocean, and autotrophic members are abundant at hydrothermal vents and in anoxic waters; combined, they can account for more than 50% of the total bacterial community. Studies of both cultured and uncultured representatives from this diverse family are providing novel insights into the shifting biogeochemical roles of autotrophic and heterotrophic bacteria that cross oxic–anoxic boundary layers in the ocean. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 14 is January 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1941-1405
    Electronic ISSN: 1941-0611
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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  • 55
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    The Invisible Hand of the Periodic Table: How Micronutrients Shape Ecology (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: Beyond the better-studied carbohydrates and the macronutrients nitrogen and phosphorus, a remaining 20 or so elements are essential for life and have distinct geographical distributions, making them of keen interest to ecologists. Here, I provide a framework for understanding how shortfalls in micronutrients like iodine, copper, and zinc can regulate individual fitness, abundance, and ecosystem function. With a special focus on sodium, I show how simple experiments manipulating biogeochemistry can reveal why many of the variables that ecologists study vary so dramatically from place to place. I conclude with a discussion of how the Anthropocene's changing temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 levels are contributing to nutrient dilution (decreases in the nutrient quality at the base of food webs). Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 52 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1543-592X
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-2069
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Annual Reviews
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  • 56
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    Earth, Wind, Fire, and Pollution: Aerosol Nutrient Sources and Impacts on Ocean Biogeochemistry (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: A key Earth system science question is the role of atmospheric deposition in supplying vital nutrients to the phytoplankton that form the base of marine food webs. Industrial and vehicular pollution, wildfires, volcanoes, biogenic debris, and desert dust all carry nutrients within their plumes throughout the globe. In remote ocean ecosystems, aerosol deposition represents an essential new source of nutrients for primary production. The large spatiotemporal variability in aerosols from myriad sources combined with the differential responses of marine biota to changing fluxes makes it crucially important to understand where, when, and how much nutrients from the atmosphere enter marine ecosystems. This review brings together existing literature, experimental evidence of impacts, and new atmospheric nutrient observations that can be compared with atmospheric and ocean biogeochemistry modeling. We evaluate the contribution and spatiotemporal variability of nutrient-bearing aerosols from desert dust, wildfire, volcanic, and anthropogenic sources, including the organic component, deposition fluxes, and oceanic impacts. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 14 is January 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1941-1405
    Electronic ISSN: 1941-0611
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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    Demographic Consequences of Phenological Shifts in Response to Climate Change (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: When a phenological shift affects a demographic vital rate such as survival or reproduction, the altered vital rate may or may not have population-level consequences. We review the evidence that climate change affects populations by shifting species’ phenologies, emphasizing the importance of demographic life-history theory. We find many examples of phenological shifts having both positive and negative consequences for vital rates. Yet, few studies link phenological shifts to changes in vital rates known to drive population dynamics, especially in plants. When this link is made, results are largely consistent with life-history theory: Phenological shifts have population-level consequences when they affect survival in longer-lived organisms and reproduction in shorter-lived organisms. However, there are just as many cases in which demographic mechanisms buffer population growth from phenologically induced changes in vital rates. We provide recommendations for future research aiming to understand the complex relationships among climate, phenology, and demography, which will help to elucidate the extent to which phenological shifts actually alter population persistence. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 52 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1543-592X
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-2069
    Topics: Biology
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    Ecological Leverage Points: Species Interactions Amplify the Physiological Effects of Global Environmental Change in the Ocean (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: Marine ecosystems are increasingly impacted by global environmental changes, including warming temperatures, deoxygenation, and ocean acidification. Marine scientists recognize intuitively that these environmental changes are translated into community changes via organismal physiology. However, physiology remains a black box in many ecological studies, and coexisting species in a community are often assumed to respond similarly to environmental stressors. Here, we emphasize how greater attention to physiology can improve our ability to predict the emergent effects of ocean change. In particular, understanding shifts in the intensity and outcome of species interactions such as competition and predation requires a sharpened focus on physiological variation among community members and the energetic demands and trophic mismatches generated by environmental changes. Our review also highlights how key species interactions that are sensitive to environmental change can operate as ecological leverage points through which small changes in abiotic conditions are amplified into large changes in marine ecosystems. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 14 is January 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1941-1405
    Electronic ISSN: 1941-0611
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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    The tracrRNA in CRISPR Biology and Technologies (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: CRISPR-Cas adaptive immune systems in bacteria and archaea utilize short CRISPR RNAs (crRNAs) to guide sequence-specific recognition and clearance of foreign genetic material. Multiple crRNAs are stored together in a compact format called a CRISPR array that is transcribed and processed into the individual crRNAs. While the exact processing mechanisms vary widely, some CRISPR-Cas systems, including those encoding the Cas9 nuclease, rely on a trans-activating crRNA (tracrRNA). The tracrRNA was discovered in 2011 and was quickly co-opted to create single-guide RNAs as core components of CRISPR-Cas9 technologies. Since then, further studies have uncovered processes extending beyond the traditional role of tracrRNA in crRNA biogenesis, revealed Cas nucleases besides Cas9 that are dependent on tracrRNAs, and established new applications based on tracrRNA engineering. In this review, we describe the biology of the tracrRNA and how its ongoing characterization has garnered new insights into prokaryotic immune defense and enabled key technological advances. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Genetics, Volume 55 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 0066-4197
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-2948
    Topics: Biology
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    The Enzymology of Ocean Global Change (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: A small subset of marine microbial enzymes and surface transporters have a disproportionately important influence on the cycling of carbon and nutrients in the global ocean. As a result, they largely determine marine biological productivity and have been the focus of considerable research attention from microbial oceanographers. Like all biological catalysts, the activity of these keystone biomolecules is subject to control by temperature and pH, leaving the crucial ecosystem functions they support potentially vulnerable to anthropogenic environmental change. We summarize and discuss both consensus and conflicting evidence on the effects of sea surface warming and ocean acidification for five of these critical enzymes [carbonic anhydrase, ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (RuBisCO), nitrogenase, nitrate reductase, and ammonia monooxygenase] and one important transporter (proteorhodopsin). Finally, we forecast how the responses of these few but essential biocatalysts to ongoing global change processes may ultimately help to shape the microbial communities and biogeochemical cycles of the future greenhouse ocean. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 14 is January 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1941-1405
    Electronic ISSN: 1941-0611
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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    The Rise of State-Owned Investors: Sovereign Wealth Funds and Public Pension Funds (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: State-owned investors (SOIs), including sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds, have $27 trillion in assets under management in 2020, making these funds the third largest group of asset owners globally. SOIs have become the largest and are among the most important private equity investors, and they are key investors in other alternative asset investments such as real estate, infrastructure, and hedge funds. SOIs are also leaders in promoting environmental, social, and governance policies and corporate social responsibility policies in investee companies. We document the rise of SOIs, assess their current investment policies, and describe how their state ownership both constrains and enhances their investment opportunity sets. We survey the most impactful recent academic research on sovereign wealth funds, public pension funds, and their closest financial analogs, private pension funds. We also introduce a new Governance-Sustainability-Resilience Scoreboard for SOIs and survey research examining their role in promoting good corporate governance. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 13 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1941-1367
    Electronic ISSN: 1941-1375
    Topics: Economics
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    From Cell Types to an Integrated Understanding of Brain Evolution: The Case of the Cerebral Cortex (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: With the discovery of the incredible diversity of neurons, Cajal and coworkers laid the foundation of modern neuroscience. Neuron types are not only structural units of nervous systems but also evolutionary units, because their identities are encoded in the genome. With the advent of high-throughput cellular transcriptomics, neuronal identities can be characterized and compared systematically across species. The comparison of neurons in mammals, reptiles, and birds indicates that the mammalian cerebral cortex is a mosaic of deeply conserved and recently evolved neuron types. Using the cerebral cortex as a case study, this review illustrates how comparing neuron types across species is key to reconciling observations on neural development, neuroanatomy, circuit wiring, and physiology for an integrated understanding of brain evolution. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Cell and Developmental Biology, Volume 37 is October 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1081-0706
    Electronic ISSN: 1530-8995
    Topics: Biology , Medicine
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    Methods Based on Semiparametric Theory for Analysis in the Presence of Missing Data (2021)
    Annual Reviews
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: A statistical model is a class of probability distributions assumed to contain the true distribution generating the data. In parametric models, the distributions are indexed by a finite-dimensional parameter characterizing the scientific question of interest. Semiparametric models describe the distributions in terms of a finite-dimensional parameter and an infinite-dimensional component, offering more flexibility. Ordinarily, the statistical model represents distributions for the full data intended to be collected. When elements of these full data are missing, the goal is to make valid inference on the full-data-model parameter using the observed data. In a series of fundamental works, Robins, Rotnitzky, and colleagues derived the class of observed-data estimators under a semiparametric model assuming that the missingness mechanism is at random, which leads to practical, robust methodology for many familiar data-analytic challenges. This article reviews semiparametric theory and the key steps in this derivation. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics, Volume 9 is March 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 2326-8298
    Electronic ISSN: 2326-831X
    Topics: Mathematics
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    Recent Challenges in Actuarial Science (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: For centuries, mathematicians and, later, statisticians, have found natural research and employment opportunities in the realm of insurance. By definition, insurance offers financial cover against unforeseen events that involve an important component of randomness, and consequently, probability theory and mathematical statistics enter insurance modeling in a fundamental way. In recent years, a data deluge, coupled with ever-advancing information technology and the birth of data science, has revolutionized or is about to revolutionize most areas of actuarial science as well as insurance practice. We discuss parts of this evolution and, in the case of non-life insurance, show how a combination of classical tools from statistics, such as generalized linear models and, e.g., neural networks contribute to better understanding and analysis of actuarial data. We further review areas of actuarial science where the cross fertilization between stochastics and insurance holds promise for both sides. Of course, the vastness of the field of insurance limits our choice of topics; we mainly focus on topics closer to our main areas of research. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Statistics, Volume 9 is March 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 2326-8298
    Electronic ISSN: 2326-831X
    Topics: Mathematics
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    Revelations About Aging and Disease from Unconventional Vertebrate Model Organisms (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: Aging is a major risk factor for multiple diseases. Understanding the underlying mechanisms of aging would help to delay and prevent age-associated diseases. Short-lived model organisms have been extensively used to study the mechanisms of aging. However, these short-lived species may be missing the longevity mechanisms that are needed to extend the lifespan of an already long-lived species such as humans. Unconventional long-lived animal species are an excellent resource to uncover novel mechanisms of longevity and disease resistance. Here, we review mechanisms that evolved in nonmodel vertebrate species to counteract age-associated diseases. Some antiaging mechanisms are conserved across species; however, various nonmodel species also evolved unique mechanisms to delay aging and prevent disease. This variety of antiaging mechanisms has evolved due to the remarkably diverse habitats and behaviors of these species. We propose that exploring a wider range of unconventional vertebrates will provide important resources to study antiaging mechanisms that are potentially applicable to humans. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Genetics, Volume 55 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 0066-4197
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-2948
    Topics: Biology
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    A Genetic Perspective on Cetacean Evolution (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: Studies of cetacean evolution using genetics and other biomolecules have come a long way—from the use of allozymes and short sequences of mitochondrial or nuclear DNA to the assembly of full nuclear genomes and characterization of proteins and lipids. Cetacean research has also advanced from using only contemporary samples to analyzing samples dating back thousands of years, and to retrieving data from indirect environmental sources, including water or sediments. Combined, these studies have profoundly deepened our understanding of the origin of cetaceans; their adaptation and speciation processes; and of the past population change, migration, and admixture events that gave rise to the diversity of cetaceans found today. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Volume 52 is November 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1543-592X
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-2069
    Topics: Biology
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    The Functional and Ecological Significance of Deep Diving by Large Marine Predators (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-08-20
    Description: Many large marine predators make excursions from surface waters to the deep ocean below 200 m. Moreover, the ability to access meso- and bathypelagic habitats has evolved independently across marine mammals, reptiles, birds, teleost fishes, and elasmobranchs. Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests a number of plausible functional hypotheses for deep-diving behavior. Developing ways to test among these hypotheses will, however, require new ways to quantify animal behavior and biophysical oceanographic processes at coherent spatiotemporal scales. Current knowledge gaps include quantifying ecological links between surface waters and mesopelagic habitats and the value of ecosystem services provided by biomass in the ocean twilight zone. Growing pressure for ocean twilight zone fisheries creates an urgent need to understand the importance of the deep pelagic ocean to large marine predators. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 14 is January 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1941-1405
    Electronic ISSN: 1941-0611
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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    Incorporating Multiyear Temperature Predictions for Water Resources Planning (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-01
    Description: Multiyear climate predictions provide climate outlooks from years to a decade in advance. As multiyear temperature predictions become more mainstream and skillful, guidance is needed to assist practitioners who wish to explore this maturing field. This paper demonstrates the process and considerations of incorporating multiyear temperature predictions into water resources planning. Multiyear temperature predictions from the Community Earth System Model Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble are presented as discrete and probabilistic products and are used to force two common hydrologic modeling approaches: conceptual and empirical. The approaches are demonstrated to simulate streamflow in the upper Colorado River basin watershed in Colorado, where diagnostics show that increasing temperatures are associated with decreasing streamflows. Using temperature information for lead years 2–6, two analyses are performed: (i) a retrospective hindcast for the climatological period (1981–2010) and (ii) a blind forecast for 2011–15. For the retrospective hindcast, including temperature information improved the percent error as compared with climatology. For the blind forecast, the multiyear temperature prediction for warming was skillful, but the corresponding multiyear average streamflow predictions from both approaches were counterintuitive: with the predicted warming, the multiyear average streamflow was predicted to be lower than the climatological mean; however, the observed multiyear average streamflow was higher than the climatological mean. This was due to above-average precipitation during the prediction time frame, particularly for one of the years. With that year removed, the multiyear streamflow average became lower than the climatological mean. Temperature provides a marginal source of streamflow predictability, but there will be substantial uncertainty until prediction skill for year-to-year climate variability, especially for precipitation, increases.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    On the role of bottom pressure torques in wind-driven gyres (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-25
    Description: Previous studies have concluded that the wind-input vorticity in ocean gyres is balanced by bottom pressure torques (BPT), when integrated over latitude bands. However, the BPT must vanish when integrated over any area enclosed by an isobath. This constraint raises ambiguities regarding the regions over which BPT should close the vorticity budget, and implies that BPT generated to balance a local wind stress curl necessitates the generation of a compensating, non-local BPT and thus non-local circulation. This study aims to clarify the role of BPT in wind-driven gyres using an idealized isopycnal model. Experiments performed with a single-signed wind stress curl in an enclosed, sloped basin reveal that BPT balances the winds only when integrated over latitude bands. Integrating over other, dynamically-motivated definitions of the gyre, such as barotropic streamlines, yields a balance between wind stress curl and bottom frictional torques. This implies that bottom friction plays a non-negligible role in structuring the gyre circulation. Non-local bottom pressure torques manifest in the form of along-slope pressure gradients associated with a weak basin-scale circulation, and are associated with a transition to a balance between wind stress and bottom friction around the coasts. Finally, a suite of perturbation experiments is used to investigate the dynamics of BPT. To predict the BPT, the authors extend previous theory that describes propagation of surface pressure signals from the gyre interior toward the coast along planetary potential vorticity contours. This theory is shown to agree closely with the diagnosed contributions to the vorticity budget across the suite of model experiments.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Ocean Tides Near Hawaii from Satellite Altimeter Data I (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-25
    Description: Sufficient and accurate tide data are essential for analyzing physical processes in the ocean. A method is developed to spatially fit the tidal amplitude and phase lag data along satellite altimeter tracks near Hawaii and construct reliable cotidal charts by using the Chebyshev polynomials. The method is completely dependent on satellite altimeter data. By using the cross-validation method, the optimal orders of Chebyshev polynomials are determined and the polynomial coefficients are calculated by the least squares method. The tidal amplitudes and phase lags obtained by the method are compared with those from the Finite Element Solutions 2014 (FES2014), National Astronomical Observatory 99b (NAO.99b) and TPXO9 models. Results indicate that the method yields accurate results as its fitting results are consistent with the harmonic constants of the three models. The feasibility of this method is also validated by the harmonic constants from tidal gauges near Hawaii.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Temporal-Spatial Variations of Atmospheric Static Stability: A Comparison of the Influences from Temperature and Its Vertical Difference (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-25
    Description: The temporal-spatial variations of the static stability of dry air and the relative importance of their influencing quantities are explored. Derivation shows that while it links to the vertical difference of temperature, static stability also relates to the temperature itself. The static stability is expressed as a nonlinear function of temperature and the vertical difference of temperature. The relative importance of the two influencing quantities is assessed with the linear regression. Tests show that the linear fitting method is robust. The results of the dominance rely on the data examined, which include an interannual variation, a seasonal variation, and a spatial variation that consists of the grid points over the globe. It is revealed that in lower troposphere, while the temporal variations of static stability are dominated by the vertical difference of temperature, the temperature itself may also have considerable influence, especially over the high latitudes of the two hemispheres. In stratosphere, temperature tends to have more contributions. Over Antarctic, temperature dominates the seasonal and interannual variations of the static stability. The spatial variation of the static stability of July is influenced by both temperature and its vertical difference before 1980, but after that it is dominated by temperature.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Seesawing of winter temperature extremes between East Asia and North America (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-02-25
    Description: In recent winters, there have been repeated observations of extreme warm and cold spells in the mid-latitude countries. This has evoked questions regarding how winter temperature extremes are induced. In this study, we demonstrate that abnormally warm winter weather in East Asia can drive the onset of extremely cold weather in North America approximately one week forward. These seesawing extremes across the basin are mediated by the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), one of the recurrent atmospheric patterns over the North Pacific. Budget analysis of the quasi-geostrophic geopotential tendency equation shows that intense thermal advection over East Asia is able to trigger the growth of the NPO. Vorticity fluxes associated with the upper-level stationary trough then strengthen and maintain the NPO against thermal damping following the onset of the NPO. Differential diabatic heating accompanied by changes in circulation also positively contribute to the growth and maintenance of the NPO. These results imply that recurrent cold extremes, seemingly contrary to global warming, may be an inherent feature resulting from strengthening warm extremes.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Seasonal, interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon: A diurnal-cycle perspective (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-02-25
    Description: This study revisits the long-term variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in 1958-2017 through examining diurnal cycles. We group monsoon days into four dynamic quadrants, with emphasis on the strong daily southerlies coupled with a large (Q1) or small (Q4) diurnal amplitude over Southeast China. The occurrence day of Q1 increases in June-July with the seasonal progress of EASM. It is most pronounced in 1960s-1970s and declines to the lowest in 1980s-1990s, while the Q4 occurrence increases notably from 1970s to 1990s; both groups return to normal in recent years. The interdecadal decrease (increase) of Q1 (Q4) occurrence corresponds well to the known weakening of EASM in the 20th century, and it also coincides with the rainfall anomalies over China shifting from “North flooding and South drought” to “North drought and South flooding” modes. The rainfall under Q1 (Q4) can account for ∼60% of the interannual variance of summer rainfall in northern (southern) China. The contrasting effects of Q1 and Q4 on rainfall are due to their remarkably different regulation on water vapor transports and convergence. The interannual/interdecadal variations of Q1 (Q4) occurrence determine the anomalous water vapor transports to northern (southern) China, in association with the various expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high. In particular, Q1 condition can greatly intensify nighttime moisture convergence, which is responsible for the long-term variations of rainfall in northern China. The results highlight that the diurnal cycles in monsoon flow act as a key regional process working with large-scale circulations to regulate the spatial distributions and long-term variabilities of EASM rainfall.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    A Spatiotemporal Lightning Risk Assessment Using Lightning Mapping Data (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-02-25
    Description: A lightning risk assessment for application to human safety was created and applied in 10 West Texas locations from 2 May 2016 to 30 September 2016. The method combined spatial lightning mapping data, probabilistic risk calculation adapted from the International Electrotechnical Commission Standard 62305-2, and weighted average interpolation to produce risk magnitudes that were compared to tolerability thresholds to issue lightning warnings. These warnings were compared to warnings created for the same dataset using a more standard lightning safety approach based on National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) total lightning within 5 nautical miles of each location. Four variations of the calculation as well as different units of risk were tested to find the optimal configuration to calculate risk to an isolated human outdoors.The best performing risk configuration using risk 10min−1 or larger produced the most comparable results to the standard method, such as number of failures, average warning duration, and total time under warnings. This risk configuration produced fewer failures than the standard method, but longer total time under warnings and higher false alarm ratios. Median lead times associated with the risk configuration were longer than the standard method for all units considered, while median down times were shorter for risk 10min−1 and risk 15min−1. Overall, the risk method provides a baseline framework to quantify the changing lightning hazard on the storm-scale, and could be a useful tool to aid in lightning decision support scenarios.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Downstream Suppression of Baroclinic Waves (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-02-01
    Description: Baroclinic waves drive both regional variations in weather and large-scale variability in the extratropical general circulation. They generally do not exist in isolation, but rather often form into coherent wave packets that propagate to the east via a mechanism called downstream development. Downstream development has been widely documented and explored. Here we document a novel but also key aspect of baroclinic waves: the downstream suppression of baroclinic activity that occurs in the wake of eastward propagating disturbances. Downstream suppression is apparent not only in the Southern Hemisphere storm track as shown in previous work, but also in the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks. It plays an essential role in driving subseasonal periodicity in extratropical eddy activity in both hemispheres, and gives rise to the observed quiescence of the North Atlantic storm track 1–2 weeks following pronounced eddy activity in the North Pacific sector. It is argued that downstream suppression results from the anomalously low baroclinicity that arises as eastward propagating wave packets convert potential to kinetic energy. In contrast to baroclinic wave packets, which propagate to the east at roughly the group velocity in the upper troposphere, the suppression of baroclinic activity propagates eastward at a slower rate that is comparable to that of the lower to midtropospheric flow. The results have implications for understanding subseasonal variability in the extratropical troposphere of both hemispheres.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Extreme Rainfall Events in the Macro-Metropolis of São Paulo: trends and connection with climate oscillations (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-30
    Description: In the present work, the trend of extreme rainfall indices in the Macro-Metropolis of São Paulo (MMSP) was analyzed and correlated with largescale climatic oscillations. A cluster analysis divided a set of rain gauge stations into three homogeneous regions within MMSP, according to the annual cycle of rainfall. The entire MMSP presented an increase in the total annual rainfall, from 1940 to 2016, of 3 mm per year on average, according to Mann-Kendall test. However, there is evidence that the more urbanized areas have a greater increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, while coastal and mountainous areas, and regions outside large urban areas, have increasing rainfall in a better-distributed way throughout the year. The evolution of extreme rainfall (95th percentile) is significantly correlated with climatic indices. In the center-north part of the MMSP, the combination of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) explains 45% of the P95th increase during the wet season. In turn, in southern MMSP, the Temperature of South Atlantic (TSA), the AAO, the El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) and the Multidecadal Oscillation of the North Atlantic (AMO) better explain the increase in extreme rainfall (R2 = 0.47). However, the same is not observed during the dry season, in which the P95th variation was only negatively correlated with the AMO, undergoing a decrease from the ‘70s until the beginning of this century. The occurrence of rainy anomalous months proved to be more frequent and associated with climatic indices than dry months.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Structural Mechanisms for Replicating DNA in Eukaryotes (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-30
    Description: The faithful and timely copying of DNA by molecular machines known as replisomes depends on a disparate suite of enzymes and scaffolding factors working together in a highly orchestrated manner. Large, dynamic protein–nucleic acid assemblies that selectively morph between distinct conformations and compositional states underpin this critical cellular process. In this article, we discuss recent progress outlining the physical basis of replisome construction and progression in eukaryotes. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Biochemistry, Volume 90 is June 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 0066-4154
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-4509
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology
    Published by Annual Reviews
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    Atmosphere-ocean dynamics of persistent cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: Persistent multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean drive hydroclimate anomalies worldwide, including persistent droughts in the extratropical Americas. Here, the atmosphere and ocean dynamics and thermodynamics of multiyear cold states of the tropical Pacific Ocean are investigated using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses and simplified models of the ocean and atmosphere. The cold states are maintained by anomalous ocean heat flux divergence and damped by increased surface heat flux from the atmosphere to ocean. The anomalous ocean heat flux divergence is contributed to by both changes in the ocean circulation and thermal structure. The keys are an anomalously shallow thermocline that enhances cooling by upwelling and anomalous westward equatorial currents that enhance cold advection. The thermocline depth anomalies are shown to be a response to equatorial wind stress anomalies. The wind stress anomalies are shown to be a simple dynamical response to equatorial SST anomalies as mediated by precipitation anomalies. The cold states are fundamentally maintained by atmosphere-ocean coupling in the equatorial Pacific. The physical processes that maintain the cold states are well approximated by linear dynamics for ocean and atmosphere and simple thermodynamics.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Integrating Systems and Synthetic Biology to Understand and Engineer Microbiomes (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: Microbiomes are complex and ubiquitous networks of microorganisms whose seemingly limitless chemical transformations could be harnessed to benefit agriculture, medicine, and biotechnology. The spatial and temporal changes in microbiome composition and function are influenced by a multitude of molecular and ecological factors. This complexity yields both versatility and challenges in designing synthetic microbiomes and perturbing natural microbiomes in controlled, predictable ways. In this review, we describe factors that give rise to emergent spatial and temporal microbiome properties and the meta-omics and computational modeling tools that can be used to understand microbiomes at the cellular and system levels. We also describe strategies for designing and engineering microbiomes to enhance or build novel functions. Throughout the review,we discuss key knowledge and technology gaps for elucidating the networks and deciphering key control points for microbiome engineering, and highlight examples where multiple omics and modeling approaches can be integrated to address these gaps. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Biomedical Engineering, Volume 23 is June 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1523-9829
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-4274
    Topics: Medicine , Technology
    Published by Annual Reviews
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    The use of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution improves the precision with which seasonal counts of tropical cyclones may be modelled. Conventionally the Poisson is used, which assumes that the formation and transit of tropical cyclones is the result of a Poisson process, such that their frequency distribution has equal mean and variance (‘equi-dispersion’). However, earlier studies of observed records have sometimes found over-dispersion, where the variance exceeds the mean, indicating that tropical cyclones are clustered in particular years. The evidence presented here demonstrates that at least some of this over-dispersion arises from observational inhomogeneities. Once this is removed, and particularly near the coasts, there is evidence for equi-dispersion or under-dispersion. In order to more accurately model numbers of tropical cyclones, we investigate the use of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson as an alternative to the Poisson that represents any dispersion characteristic. An example is given for east China where using it improves the skill of a prototype seasonal forecast of tropical cyclone landfall.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Engaging schools to explore meteorological observational gaps (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: Today, the vast majority of meteorological data are collected in open, rural environments to comply with the standards set by the World Meteorological Organization. However, these traditional networks lack local information that would be of immense value, for example, for studying urban microclimate, evaluating climate adaptation measures, or improving high-resolution numerical weather predictions. Therefore an urgent need exists for reliable meteorological data in other environments (e.g. cities, lakes, forests) to complement these conventional networks. At present, however, high-accuracy initiatives tend to be limited in space and/or time as a result of the substantial budgetary requirements faced by research teams and operational services. We present a novel approach for addressing the existing observational gaps based on an intense collaboration with high schools. This methodology resulted in the establishment of a region-wide climate monitoring network of 59 accurate weather stations in a wide variety of locations across northern Belgium. The project is also of large societal relevance as it bridges the gap between the youth and atmospheric science. To guarantee a sustainable and mutually valuable collaboration, the schools and their students are involved at all stages, ranging from proposing measurement locations, building the weather stations, and even data analysis. We illustrate how the approach received an overwhelming enthusiasm from high schools and students and resulted in a high-accuracy monitoring network with unique locations offering novel insights.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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    Cross-validation of active and passive microwave snowfall products over the continental United States (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-30
    Description: Surface snowfall rate estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission’s Core Observatory sensors and the CloudSat radar are compared to those from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar composite product over the continental United States during the period from November 2014 to September 2020. The analysis includes: the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) retrieval and its single frequency counterparts, the GPM Combined Radar Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA), the CloudSat Snow Profile product (2C-SNOW-PROFILE) and two passive microwave retrievals, i.e., the Goddard PROFiling algorithm (GPROF) and the Snow retrievaL ALgorithm fOr gMi (SLALOM). The 2C-SNOW retrieval has the highest Heidke Skill Score (HSS) for detecting snowfall among the products analysed. SLALOM ranks second; it outperforms GPROF and the other GPM algorithms, all detecting only 30% of the snow events. Since SLALOM is trained with 2C-SNOW, it suggests that the optimal use of the information content in the GMI observations critically depends on the precipitation training dataset. All the retrievals underestimate snowfall rates by a factor of two compared to MRMS. Large discrepancies (RMSE of 0.7 to 1.5 mm h-1) between space-borne and ground-based snowfall rate estimates are attributed to the complexity of the ice scattering properties and to the limitations of the remote sensing systems: the DPR instrument has low sensitivity, while the radiometric measurements are affected by the confounding effects of the background surface emissivity and of the emission of supercooled liquid droplet layers.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Effect of Precipitation Sampling Error on Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction: Anticipating Operational Rapid-Update Polarimetric Weather Radars (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-30
    Description: Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) at high spatiotemporal resolution are essential for flash flood forecasting, especially in urban environments and headwater areas. An accurate quantification of precipitation is directly related to the temporal and spatial sampling of the precipitation system. The advent of phased array radar (PAR) technology, a potential next-generation weather radar, can provide updates that are at least 4-5 times faster than the conventional WSR-88D scanning rate. In this study, data collected by the KOUN WSR-88D radar with ~1 minute temporal resolution is used as an approximation of data that a future PAR system could provide to force the Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) hydrologic model. To assess the effect of errors resulting from temporal and spatial sampling of precipitation on flash flood warnings, KOUN precipitation data (1-km/1-min) is used to generate precipitation products at other spatial/temporal resolutions commonly used in hydrologic models, such as those provided by conventional WSR-88D radar (1-km/5-min), spaced-based observations (10-km/30-min), and hourly rainfall products (1-km/60-min). The effect of precipitation sampling errors on flash flood warnings are then examined and quantified by using discharge simulated from KOUN (1-km/1-min) as truth to assess simulations conducted using other generated coarser spatial/temporal resolutions of other precipitation products. Our results show that: 1) observations with coarse spatial and temporal sampling can cause large errors in quantification of the amount, intensity, and distribution of precipitation, 2) time series of precipitation products show that QPE peak values decrease as the temporal resolution gets coarser, and 3) the effect of precipitation sampling error on flash flood forecasting is large in headwater areas and decrease quickly as drainage area increases.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    An EnKF-based method to produce rainfall maps from simulated satellite-to-ground MW-link signal attenuation (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-30
    Description: Measuring rainfall is complex, due to the high temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, especially in a changing climate, but it is of great importance for all the scientific and operational disciplines dealing with rainfall effects on the environment, human activities, and economy.Microwave (MW) telecommunication links carry information on rainfall rates along their path, through signal attenuation caused by raindrops, and can become measurements of opportunity, offering inexpensive chances to augment information without deploying additional infrastructures, at the cost of some smart processing. Processing satellite telecom signals bring some specific complexities related to the effects of rainfall boundaries, melting layer, and non-weather attenuations, but with the potential to provide worldwide precipitation data with high temporal and spatial samplings. These measurements have to be processed according to the probabilistic nature of the information they carry. An EnKF-based (Ensemble Kalman Filter) method has been developed to dynamically retrieve rainfall fields in gridded domains, which manages such probabilistic information and exploits the high sampling rate of measurements. The paper presents the EnKF method with some representative tests from synthetic 3D experiments. Ancillary data are assumed as from worldwide-available operational meteorological satellites and models, for advection, initial and boundary conditions, rain height. The method reproduces rainfall structures and quantities in a correct way, and also manages possible link outages. It results computationally viable also for operational implementation and applicable to different link observation geometries and characteristics.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Storm-Scale Dynamical Changes of Extratropical Transition Events in Present-Day and Future High-Resolution Global Simulations (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: Tropical cyclones (TCs) propagating into baroclinic midlatitude environments can transform into extratropical cyclones, in some cases resulting in high-impact weather conditions far from the tropics. This study extends analysis of extratropical transition (ET) changes in multi-seasonal global simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) under present-day and projected future conditions. High-resolution (15 km) covers the Northern Hemisphere; TCs and ET events are tracked based on sea-level pressure minima accompanied by a warm core and use of a cyclone phase space method. Previous analysis of these simulations showed large changes in ET over the North Atlantic (NATL) basin, with ET events exhibiting a 4–5° northward latitudinal shift and a ~6 hPa strengthening of the post-transition extratropical cyclone. Storm-relative composites, primarily representing post-transformation cold-core events, indicate that this increase in post-transition storm intensity is associated with an intensification of the neighboring upper-level trough and downstream ridge, and a poleward shift in the storm center, conducive to enhanced trough-TC interactions after ET completion. Additionally, the future composite ET event is located in the right-jet entrance of an outflow jet that is strengthened relative to its present-day counterpart. Localized impacts associated with ET events, such as heavy precipitation and strong near-surface winds, are significantly enhanced in the future-climate simulations; 6-hourly precipitation for NATL events increases at a super-Clausius-Clapeyron rate with area-average precipitation increasing over 30%. Furthermore, intensified precipitation contributes to enhanced lower-tropospheric potential vorticity and stronger upper-tropospheric outflow, implying the potential for more extreme downstream impacts under the future climate scenario.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Next-Generation Mass Spectrometry Metabolomics Revives the Functional Analysis of Plant Metabolic Diversity (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: The remarkable diversity of specialized metabolites produced by plants has inspired several decades of research and nucleated a long list of theories to guide empirical ecological studies. However, analytical constraints and the lack of untargeted processing workflows have long precluded comprehensive metabolite profiling and, consequently, the collection of the critical currencies to test theory predictions for the ecological functions of plant metabolic diversity. Developments in mass spectrometry (MS) metabolomics have revolutionized the large-scale inventory and annotation of chemicals from biospecimens. Hence, the next generation of MS metabolomics propelled by new bioinformatics developments provides a long-awaited framework to revisit metabolism-centered ecological questions, much like the advances in next-generation sequencing of the last two decades impacted all research horizons in genomics. Here, we review advances in plant (computational) metabolomics to foster hypothesis formulation from complex metabolome data. Additionally, we reflect on how next-generation metabolomics could reinvigorate the testing of long-standing theories on plant metabolic diversity. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Plant Biology, Volume 72 is May 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1543-5008
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-2123
    Topics: Biology
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    Optobiochemistry: Genetically Encoded Control of Protein Activity by Light (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: Optobiochemical control of protein activities allows the investigation of protein functions in living cells with high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the last two decades, numerous natural photosensory domains have been characterized and synthetic domains engineered and assembled into photoregulatory systems to control protein function with light.Here, we review the field of optobiochemistry, categorizing photosensory domains by chromophore, describing photoregulatory systems by mechanism of action, and discussing protein classes frequently investigated using optical methods. We also present examples of how spatial or temporal control of proteins in living cells has provided new insights not possible with traditional biochemical or cell biological techniques. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Biochemistry, Volume 90 is June 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 0066-4154
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-4509
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology
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    The Roots of Genetic Coding in Aminoacyl-tRNA Synthetase Duality (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: Codon-dependent translation underlies genetics and phylogenetic inferences, but its origins pose two challenges. Prevailing narratives cannot account for the fact that aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases (aaRSs), which translate the genetic code, must collectively enforce the rules used to assemble themselves. Nor can they explain how specific assignments arose from rudimentary differentiation between ancestral aaRSs and corresponding transfer RNAs (tRNAs). Experimental deconstruction of the two aaRS superfamilies created new experimental tools with which to analyze the emergence of the code. Amino acid and tRNA substrate recognition are linked to phase transfer free energies of amino acids and arise largely from aaRS class-specific differences in secondary structure. Sensitivity to protein folding rules endowed ancestral aaRS–tRNA pairs with the feedback necessary to rapidly compare alternative genetic codes and coding sequences. These and other experimental data suggest that the aaRS bidirectional genetic ancestry stabilized the differentiation and interdependence required to initiate and elaborate the genetic coding table. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Biochemistry, Volume 90 is June 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 0066-4154
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-4509
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology
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    The Yin and Yang of Histone Marks in Transcription (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-29
    Description: Nucleosomes wrap DNA and impede access for the machinery of transcription. The core histones that constitute nucleosomes are subject to a diversity of posttranslational modifications, or marks, that impact the transcription of genes. Their functions have sometimes been difficult to infer because the enzymes that write and read them are complex, multifunctional proteins. Here, we examine the evidence for the functions of marks and argue that the major marks perform a fairly small number of roles in either promoting transcription or preventing it. Acetylations and phosphorylations on the histone core disrupt histone-DNA contacts and/or destabilize nucleosomes to promote transcription. Ubiquitylations stimulate methylations that provide a scaffold for either the formation of silencing complexes or resistance to those complexes, and carry a memory of the transcriptional state. Tail phosphorylations deconstruct silencing complexes in particular contexts. We speculate that these fairly simple roles form the basis of transcriptional regulation by histone marks. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Genomics and Human Genetics Volume 22 is August 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1527-8204
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-293X
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Annual Reviews
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    Designing Biological Circuits: Synthetic Biology Within the Operon Model and Beyond (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-30
    Description: In 1961, Jacob and Monod proposed the operon model of gene regulation. At the model's core was the modular assembly of regulators, operators, and structural genes. To illustrate the composability of these elements, Jacob and Monod linked phenotypic diversity to the architectures of regulatory circuits. In this review, we examine how the circuit blueprints imagined by Jacob and Monod laid the foundation for the first synthetic gene networks that launched the field of synthetic biology in 2000. We discuss the influences of the operon model and its broader theoretical framework on the first generation of synthetic biological circuits, which were predominantly transcriptional and posttranscriptional circuits. We also describe how recent advances in molecular biology beyond the operon model—namely, programmable DNA- and RNA-binding molecules as well as models of epigenetic and posttranslational regulation—are expanding the synthetic biology toolkit and enabling the design of more complex biological circuits. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Biochemistry, Volume 90 is June 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 0066-4154
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-4509
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology
    Published by Annual Reviews
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  • 91
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    Salicylic Acid: Biosynthesis and Signaling (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-23
    Description: Salicylic acid (SA) is an essential plant defense hormone that promotes immunity against biotrophic and semibiotrophic pathogens. It plays crucial roles in basal defense and the amplification of local immune responses, as well as the establishment of systemic acquired resistance. During the past three decades, immense progress has been made in understanding the biosynthesis, homeostasis, perception, and functions of SA. This review summarizes the current knowledge regarding SA in plant immunity and other biological processes. We highlight recent breakthroughs that substantially advanced our understanding of how SA is biosynthesized from isochorismate, how it is perceived, and how SA receptors regulate different aspects of plant immunity. Some key questions in SA biosynthesis and signaling, such as how SA is produced via another intermediate benzoic acid and how SA affects the activities of its receptors in the transcriptional regulation of defense genes, remain to be addressed. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Plant Biology, Volume 72 is May 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1543-5008
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-2123
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Annual Reviews
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  • 92
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    Phytochrome Signaling Networks (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-23
    Description: The perception of light signals by the phytochrome family of photoreceptors has a crucial influence on almost all aspects of growth and development throughout a plant's life cycle. The holistic regulatory networks orchestrated by phytochromes, including conformational switching, subcellular localization, direct protein-protein interactions, transcriptional and posttranscriptional regulations, and translational and posttranslational controls to promote photomorphogenesis, are highly coordinated and regulated at multiple levels. During the past decade, advances using innovative approaches have substantially broadened our understanding of the sophisticated mechanisms underlying the phytochrome-mediated light signaling pathways. This review discusses and summarizes these discoveries of the role of the modular structure of phytochromes, phytochrome-interacting proteins, and their functions; the reciprocal modulation of both positive and negative regulators in phytochrome signaling; the regulatory roles of phytochromes in transcriptional activities, alternative splicing, and translational regulation; and the kinases and E3 ligases that modulate PHYTOCHROME INTERACTING FACTORs to optimize photomorphogenesis. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Plant Biology, Volume 72 is May 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1543-5008
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-2123
    Topics: Biology
    Published by Annual Reviews
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  • 93
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    The Impact of Assimilating ZDR Observations on Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Oklahoma Storm Event (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: Assimilation of dual-polarization (dual-pol) observations provides more accurate storm-scale analyses to initialize forecasts of severe convective thunderstorms. This study investigates the impact assimilating experimental sector-scan dual-pol observations has on storm-scale ensemble forecasts and how this impact changes over different data assimilation (DA) windows using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Ensemble forecasts are initialized after 30, 45, and 60 minutes of DA for two sets of experiments that assimilate either reflectivity and radial velocity only (EXPZ) or reflectivity and radial velocity plus differential reflectivity (EXPZZDR). This study uses the 31 May 2013 Oklahoma event which included multiple storms that produced tornadoes and severe hail, with focus placed on two storms that impacted El Reno and Stillwater during the event.The earliest initialized forecast of EXPZZDR better predicts the evolution of the El Reno storm than EXPZ, but the two sets of experiments become similar at subsequent forecast times. However, the later EXPZZDR forecasts of the Stillwater storm, which organized towards the end of the DA window, produce improved results compared to EXPZ, in which the storm is less intense and weakens. Evaluation of forecast products for supercell mesocyclones (updraft helicity [UH]) and hail show similar results with earlier EXPZZDR forecasts better predicting the UH swaths of the El Reno storm and later forecasts producing improved UH and hail swaths for the Stillwater storm. The results indicate that the assimilation of ZDR over fewer DA cycles can produce improved forecasts when DA windows sufficiently cover storms during their initial development and organization.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 94
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    Simulations of ENSO Phase-locking in CMIP5 and CMIP6 (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: The characteristics of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking in observations and CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are examined in this study. Two metrics based on the peaking month histogram for all El Niño and La Niña events are adopted to delineate the basic features of ENSO phase-locking in terms of the preferred calendar month and strength of this preference. It turns out that most models are poor at simulating the ENSO phase-locking, either showing little peak strengths or peaking at the wrong seasons. By deriving ENSO’s linear dynamics based on the conceptual recharge oscillator (RO) framework through the seasonal linear inverse model (sLIM) approach, various simulated phase-locking behaviors of CMIP models are systematically investigated in comparison with observations. In observations, phase-locking is mainly attributed to the seasonal modulation of ENSO’s SST growth rate. In contrast, in a significant portion of CMIP models, phase-locking is co-determined by the seasonal modulations of both SST growth and phase-transition rates. Further study of the joint effects of SST growth and phase-transition rates suggests that for simulating realistic winter peak ENSO phase-locking with the right dynamics, climate models need to have four key factors in the right combination: (1) correct phase of SST growth rate modulation peaking at the fall; (2) large enough amplitude for the annual cycle in growth rate; (3) amplitude of semi-annual cycle in growth rate needs to be small; and (4) amplitude of seasonal modulation in SST phase-transition rate needs to be small.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 95
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    A 20-year analysis of disturbance-driven rainfall on O’ahu, Hawai’i (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: Undisturbed trade-wind conditions comprise the most prevalent synoptic weather pattern in Hawai’i and produces a distinct pattern of orographic rainfall. Significant total rainfall contributions and extreme events are linked to four types of atmospheric disturbances: cold fronts, Kona lows, upper-tropospheric disturbances, and tropical cyclones. In this study, a 20- year (1990-2010) categorical disturbance time series is compiled and analyzed in relation to daily rainfall over the same period. The primary objective of this research is to determine how disturbances contribute to total wet season rainfall on the Island of O’ahu, Hawai’i. On average, 41% of wet seasonal rainfall occurs on disturbance days. Seventeen percent of seasonal rainfall can be directly attributed to disturbances (after a background signal is removed) and as much as 48% in a single season. The intensity of disturbance rainfall (mm/day) is a stronger predictor (r2 = 0.49; p 〈 0.001) of the total seasonal rainfall than the frequency of occurrence (r2 = 0.11; p = 0.153). Cold fronts are the most common disturbance type; however, the rainfall associated with fronts that cross the island is significantly higher than rainfall produced from non-crossing fronts. In fact, non-crossing fronts produce significantly less rainfall than under mean non-disturbance conditions 76% of the time. While the combined influence of atmospheric disturbances can account for almost half of the rainfall received during the wet season, the primary factor in determining a relatively wet or dry season/year on O’ahu are the frequency and rainfall intensity of Kona Low events.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 96
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    Evidence for an increasing role of ocean heat in Arctic winter sea ice growth (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: We investigate how sea ice decline in summer and warmer ocean and surface temperatures in winter affect sea ice growth in the Arctic. Sea ice volume changes are estimated from satellite observations during winter from 2002 to 2019 and partitioned into thermodynamic growth and dynamic volume change. Both components are compared to validated sea ice-ocean models forced by reanalysis data to extend observations back to 1980 and to understand the mechanisms that cause the observed trends and variability. We find that a negative feedback driven by the increasing sea ice retreat in summer yields increasing thermodynamic ice growth during winter in the Arctic marginal seas eastward from the Laptev Sea to the Beaufort Sea. However, in the Barents and Kara Seas, this feedback seems to be overpowered by the impact of increasing oceanic heat flux and air temperatures, resulting in negative trends in thermodynamic ice growth of -2 km3month-1yr-1 on average over 2002-2019 derived from satellite observations.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    A 2020 Observational Perspective of Io (2021)
    Annual Reviews
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-23
    Description: Jupiter's Galilean satellite Io is one of the most remarkable objects in our Solar System. The tidal heating Io undergoes through its orbital resonance with Europa and Ganymede has resulted in a body rich in active silicate volcanism. Over the past decades, Io has been observed from ground-based and Earth-orbiting telescopes and by several spacecraft. In this review we summarize the progress made toward our understanding of the physical and chemical processes related to Io and its environment since the Galileo era. Io science has been revolutionized by the use of adaptive optics techniques on large, 8- to 10-m telescopes. The resultant ever-increasing database, mapping the size, style, and spatial distribution of Io's diverse volcanoes, has improved our understanding of Io's interior structure, its likely composition, and the tidal heating process. Additionally, new observations of Io's atmosphere obtained with these large optical/infrared telescopes and the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array reveal the presence of volcanic plumes, the (at times) near-collapse of Io's atmosphere during eclipse, and the interactions of plumes with the sublimation atmosphere. ▪ Extensive new data sets of Io at ultraviolet, mid- to near-infrared, and radio wavelengths have been gathered since the Galileo era. ▪ New data and models inform us about tidal heating, surface properties, and magma composition across Io—although key questions remain. ▪ Atmospheric observations indicate a dominant sublimation-supported component and reinforce the presence of stealth volcanism. ▪ Observations of volcanic plumes show high gas velocities (up to ∼1 km/s) and their effect on Io's atmosphere. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 49 is May 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
    Print ISSN: 0084-6597
    Electronic ISSN: 1545-4495
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Annual Reviews
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  • 98
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    Toward Win-win Message Strategies: The Effects of Persuasive Message Content on Retweet Counts During Natural Hazard Events (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: Message diffusion and message persuasion are two important aspects of success for official risk messages about hazards. Message diffusion enables more people to receive lifesaving messages, and message persuasion motivates them to take protective actions. This study helps to identify win-win message strategies by investigating how an under-examined factor, message content that is theoretically important to message persuasion, influences message diffusion for official risk messages about heat hazards on Twitter. Using multilevel negative binomial regression models, the respective and cumulative effects of four persuasive message factors, hazard intensity, health risk susceptibility, health impact, and response instruction on retweet counts were analyzed using a dataset of heat-related tweets issued by U.S. National Weather Service accounts. Two subsets of heat-related tweets were also analyzed: 1) heat warning tweets about current or anticipated extreme heat events and 2) tweets about non-extreme heat events. This study found that heat-related tweets that mentioned more types of persuasive message factors were retweeted more frequently, and so were two subtypes of heat-related tweets. Mentions of hazard intensity also consistently predicted increased retweet counts. Mentions of health impacts positively influenced message diffusion for heat-related tweets and tweets about non-extreme heat events. Mentions of health risk susceptibility and response instructions positively predicted retweet counts for tweets about non-extreme heat events and tweets about official extreme heat warnings respectively. In the context of natural hazards, this research informs practitioners with evidence-based message strategies to increase message diffusion on social media. Such strategies also have the potential to improve message persuasion.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 99
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    Observed Near-Surface Wind Structure in the Inner Core of Typhoon Goni (2015) (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-22
    Description: The very strong Typhoon Goni passed over the Yaeyama Islands in southwestern Japan during the rapid intensification stage on August 23, 2015. Surface data collected by the dense network of weather stations as well as Doppler radar observations over the islands revealed a finescale structure in the inner core of the typhoon near the surface.Goni had a clear eye surrounded by a square-shaped eyewall with intense convection. The surface observations revealed that several vortices with a diameter of ~7–10 km accompanied by a pressure deficit were present inside the eye. From the Doppler velocity field, mesovortices approximately 10 km in diameter were found at the apexes of the square-shaped eyewall. These mesovortices and the inner rainbands emanating outward from the apexes of the polygonal eyewall generally exhibited features typical of vortex Rossby waves. The mesovortices were accompanied by a pressure deficit at the surface and enhanced surface winds. The data also indicated the first observational evidence of near-surface mixing between the eye and eyewall through the mesovortices, that is, the transport of high equivalent potential temperature in the eye toward the eyewall.The radar data revealed that many radar-reflectivity filaments that had a pleated shape with lengths of a few kilometers extended perpendicularly from the inner edge of the eyewall at low levels. The filaments associated with wind perturbations at low levels caused significant wind gusts accompanied by sudden pressure drops and shifts in wind direction at the surface.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Topographic Rossby Waves in the Abyssal South China Sea (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2021-03-22
    Description: Topographic Rossby waves (TRWs) in the abyssal South China Sea (SCS) are investigated using observations and high-resolution numerical simulations. These energetic waves can account for over 40% of the kinetic energy (KE) variability in the deep western boundary current and seamount region in the central SCS. This proportion can even reach 70% over slopes in the northern and southern SCS. The TRW-induced currents exhibit columnar (i.e., in-phase) structure in which the speed increases downward. Wave properties such as the period (5–60 days), wavelength (100–500 km), and vertical trapping scale (102–103 m) vary significantly depending on environmental parameters of the SCS. The TRW energy propagates along steep topography with phase propagation offshore. TRWs with high frequencies exhibit a stronger climbing effect than low-frequency ones and hence can move further upslope. For TRWs with a certain frequency, the wavelength and trapping scale are dominated by the topographic beta, whereas the group velocity is more sensitive to the internal Rossby deformation radius. Background circulation with horizontal shear can change the wavelength and direction of TRWs if the flow velocity is comparable to the group velocity, particularly in the central, southern, and eastern SCS. A case study suggests two possible energy sources for TRWs: mesoscale perturbation in the upper layer and large-scale background circulation in the deep layer. The former provides KE by pressure work, whereas the latter transfers the available potential energy (APE) through baroclinic instability.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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