ALBERT

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Domingues, R., Kuwano-Yoshida, A., Chardon-Maldonado, P., Todd, R. E., Halliwell, G., Kim, H., Lin, I., Sato, K., Narazaki, T., Shay, L. K., Miles, T., Glenn, S., Zhang, J. A., Jayne, S. R., Centurioni, L., Le Henaff, M., Foltz, G. R., Bringas, F., Ali, M. M., DiMarco, S. F., Hosoda, S., Fukuoka, T., LaCour, B., Mehra, A., Sanabia, E. R., Gyakum, J. R., Dong, J., Knaff, J. A., & Goni, G. Ocean observations in support of studies and forecasts of tropical and extratropical cyclones. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 446, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00446.

Description: Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical bomb cyclones (ECs). In order to foster further advancements to predict and better understand these extreme weather events, a need for a dedicated observing system component specifically to support studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs has been identified, but such a system has not yet been implemented. New technologies, pilot networks, targeted deployments of instruments, and state-of-the art coupled numerical models have enabled advances in research and forecast capabilities and illustrate a potential framework for future development. Here, applications and key results made possible by the different ocean observing efforts in support of studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs, as well as recent advances in observing technologies and strategies are reviewed. Then a vision and specific recommendations for the next decade are discussed.

Description: This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and JSPS KAKENHI (Grant Numbers: JP17K19093, JP16K12591, and JP16H01846).

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Foltz, G. R., Brandt, P., Richter, I., Rodriguez-Fonsecao, B., Hernandez, F., Dengler, M., Rodrigues, R. R., Schmidt, J. O., Yu, L., Lefevre, N., Da Cunha, L. C., Mcphaden, M. J., Araujo, M., Karstensen, J., Hahn, J., Martin-Rey, M., Patricola, C. M., Poli, P., Zuidema, P., Hummels, R., Perez, R. C., Hatje, V., Luebbecke, J. F., Palo, I., Lumpkin, R., Bourles, B., Asuquo, F. E., Lehodey, P., Conchon, A., Chang, P., Dandin, P., Schmid, C., Sutton, A., Giordani, H., Xue, Y., Illig, S., Losada, T., Grodsky, S. A., Gasparinss, F., Lees, T., Mohino, E., Nobre, P., Wanninkhof, R., Keenlyside, N., Garcon, V., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Nnamchi, H. C., Drevillon, M., Storto, A., Remy, E., Lazar, A., Speich, S., Goes, M., Dorrington, T., Johns, W. E., Moum, J. N., Robinson, C., Perruches, C., de Souza, R. B., Gaye, A. T., Lopez-Paragess, J., Monerie, P., Castellanos, P., Benson, N. U., Hounkonnou, M. N., Trotte Duha, J., Laxenairess, R., & Reul, N. The tropical Atlantic observing system. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6(206), (2019), doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00206.

Description: he tropical Atlantic is home to multiple coupled climate variations covering a wide range of timescales and impacting societally relevant phenomena such as continental rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, oceanic biological productivity, and atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Pacific. The tropical Atlantic also connects the southern and northern branches of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and receives freshwater input from some of the world’s largest rivers. To address these diverse, unique, and interconnected research challenges, a rich network of ocean observations has developed, building on the backbone of the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA). This network has evolved naturally over time and out of necessity in order to address the most important outstanding scientific questions and to improve predictions of tropical Atlantic severe weather and global climate variability and change. The tropical Atlantic observing system is motivated by goals to understand and better predict phenomena such as tropical Atlantic interannual to decadal variability and climate change; multidecadal variability and its links to the meridional overturning circulation; air-sea fluxes of CO2 and their implications for the fate of anthropogenic CO2; the Amazon River plume and its interactions with biogeochemistry, vertical mixing, and hurricanes; the highly productive eastern boundary and equatorial upwelling systems; and oceanic oxygen minimum zones, their impacts on biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems, and their feedbacks to climate. Past success of the tropical Atlantic observing system is the result of an international commitment to sustained observations and scientific cooperation, a willingness to evolve with changing research and monitoring needs, and a desire to share data openly with the scientific community and operational centers. The observing system must continue to evolve in order to meet an expanding set of research priorities and operational challenges. This paper discusses the tropical Atlantic observing system, including emerging scientific questions that demand sustained ocean observations, the potential for further integration of the observing system, and the requirements for sustaining and enhancing the tropical Atlantic observing system.

Description: MM-R received funding from the MORDICUS grant under contract ANR-13-SENV-0002-01 and the MSCA-IF-EF-ST FESTIVAL (H2020-EU project 797236). GF, MG, RLu, RP, RW, and CS were supported by NOAA/OAR through base funds to AOML and the Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division (OOMD; fund reference 100007298). This is NOAA/PMEL contribution #4918. PB, MDe, JH, RH, and JL are grateful for continuing support from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. German participation is further supported by different programs funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, the Deutsche Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), and the European Union. The EU-PREFACE project funded by the EU FP7/2007–2013 programme (Grant No. 603521) contributed to results synthesized here. LCC was supported by the UERJ/Prociencia-2018 research grant. JOS received funding from the Cluster of Excellence Future Ocean (EXC80-DFG), the EU-PREFACE project (Grant No. 603521) and the BMBF-AWA project (Grant No. 01DG12073C).

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Quinn, P. K., Thompson, E. J., Coffman, D. J., Baidar, S., Bariteau, L., Bates, T. S., Bigorre, S., Brewer, A., de Boer, G., de Szoeke, S. P., Drushka, K., Foltz, G. R., Intrieri, J., Iyer, S., Fairall, C. W., Gaston, C. J., Jansen, F., Johnson, J. E., Krueger, O. O., Marchbanks, R. D., Moran, K. P., Noone, D., Pezoa, S., Pincus, R., Plueddemann, A. J., Poehlker, M. L., Poeschl, U., Melendez, E. Q., Royer, H. M., Szczodrak, M., Thomson, J., Upchurch, L. M., Zhang, C., Zhang, D., & Zuidema, P. Measurements from the RV Ronald H. Brown and related platforms as part of the Atlantic Tradewind Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign (ATOMIC). Earth System Science Data, 13(4), (2021): 1759-1790, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1759-2021.

Description: The Atlantic Tradewind Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign (ATOMIC) took place from 7 January to 11 July 2020 in the tropical North Atlantic between the eastern edge of Barbados and 51∘ W, the longitude of the Northwest Tropical Atlantic Station (NTAS) mooring. Measurements were made to gather information on shallow atmospheric convection, the effects of aerosols and clouds on the ocean surface energy budget, and mesoscale oceanic processes. Multiple platforms were deployed during ATOMIC including the NOAA RV Ronald H. Brown (RHB) (7 January to 13 February) and WP-3D Orion (P-3) aircraft (17 January to 10 February), the University of Colorado's Robust Autonomous Aerial Vehicle-Endurant Nimble (RAAVEN) uncrewed aerial system (UAS) (24 January to 15 February), NOAA- and NASA-sponsored Saildrones (12 January to 11 July), and Surface Velocity Program Salinity (SVPS) surface ocean drifters (23 January to 29 April). The RV Ronald H. Brown conducted in situ and remote sensing measurements of oceanic and atmospheric properties with an emphasis on mesoscale oceanic–atmospheric coupling and aerosol–cloud interactions. In addition, the ship served as a launching pad for Wave Gliders, Surface Wave Instrument Floats with Tracking (SWIFTs), and radiosondes. Details of measurements made from the RV Ronald H. Brown, ship-deployed assets, and other platforms closely coordinated with the ship during ATOMIC are provided here. These platforms include Saildrone 1064 and the RAAVEN UAS as well as the Barbados Cloud Observatory (BCO) and Barbados Atmospheric Chemistry Observatory (BACO). Inter-platform comparisons are presented to assess consistency in the data sets. Data sets from the RV Ronald H. Brown and deployed assets have been quality controlled and are publicly available at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data archive (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/archive/accession/ATOMIC-2020, last access: 2 April 2021). Point-of-contact information and links to individual data sets with digital object identifiers (DOIs) are provided herein.

Description: NOAA's Climate Variability and Predictability Program provided funding under NOAA CVP NA19OAR4310379, GC19-301, and GC19-305. The Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) supported this study under NOAA cooperative agreement NA15OAR4320063. Additional support was provided by the NOAA's Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) Program Office, NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory, and NOAA AOML's Physical Oceanography Division. The NTAS project is funded by the NOAA's Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program (CPO FundRef number 100007298), through the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region (CINAR) under cooperative agreement NA14OAR4320158.

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Stevens, B., Bony, S., Farrell, D., Ament, F., Blyth, A., Fairall, C., Karstensen, J., Quinn, P. K., Speich, S., Acquistapace, C., Aemisegger, F., Albright, A. L., Bellenger, H., Bodenschatz, E., Caesar, K.-A., Chewitt-Lucas, R., de Boer, G., Delanoë, J., Denby, L., Ewald, F., Fildier, B., Forde, M., George, G., Gross, S., Hagen, M., Hausold, A., Heywood, K. J., Hirsch, L., Jacob, M., Jansen, F., Kinne, S., Klocke, D., Kölling, T., Konow, H., Lothon, M., Mohr, W., Naumann, A. K., Nuijens, L., Olivier, L., Pincus, R., Pöhlker, M., Reverdin, G., Roberts, G., Schnitt, S., Schulz, H., Siebesma, A. P., Stephan, C. C., Sullivan, P., Touzé-Peiffer, L., Vial, J., Vogel, R., Zuidema, P., Alexander, N., Alves, L., Arixi, S., Asmath, H., Bagheri, G., Baier, K., Bailey, A., Baranowski, D., Baron, A., Barrau, S., Barrett, P. A., Batier, F., Behrendt, A., Bendinger, A., Beucher, F., Bigorre, S., Blades, E., Blossey, P., Bock, O., Böing, S., Bosser, P., Bourras, D., Bouruet-Aubertot, P., Bower, K., Branellec, P., Branger, H., Brennek, M., Brewer, A., Brilouet , P.-E., Brügmann, B., Buehler, S. A., Burke, E., Burton, R., Calmer, R., Canonici, J.-C., Carton, X., Cato Jr., G., Charles, J. A., Chazette, P., Chen, Y., Chilinski, M. T., Choularton, T., Chuang, P., Clarke, S., Coe, H., Cornet, C., Coutris, P., Couvreux, F., Crewell, S., Cronin, T., Cui, Z., Cuypers, Y., Daley, A., Damerell, G. M., Dauhut, T., Deneke, H., Desbios, J.-P., Dörner, S., Donner, S., Douet, V., Drushka, K., Dütsch, M., Ehrlich, A., Emanuel, K., Emmanouilidis, A., Etienne, J.-C., Etienne-Leblanc, S., Faure, G., Feingold, G., Ferrero, L., Fix, A., Flamant, C., Flatau, P. J., Foltz, G. R., Forster, L., Furtuna, I., Gadian, A., Galewsky, J., Gallagher, M., Gallimore, P., Gaston, C., Gentemann, C., Geyskens, N., Giez, A., Gollop, J., Gouirand, I., Gourbeyre, C., de Graaf, D., de Groot, G. E., Grosz, R., Güttler, J., Gutleben, M., Hall, K., Harris, G., Helfer, K. C., Henze, D., Herbert, C., Holanda, B., Ibanez-Landeta, A., Intrieri, J., Iyer, S., Julien, F., Kalesse, H., Kazil, J., Kellman, A., Kidane, A. T., Kirchner, U., Klingebiel, M., Körner, M., Kremper, L. A., Kretzschmar, J., Krüger, O., Kumala, W., Kurz, A., L'Hégaret, P., Labaste, M., Lachlan-Cope, T., Laing, A., Landschützer, P., Lang, T., Lange, D., Lange, I., Laplace, C., Lavik, G., Laxenaire, R., Le Bihan, C., Leandro, M., Lefevre, N., Lena, M., Lenschow, D., Li, Q., Lloyd, G., Los, S., Losi, N., Lovell, O., Luneau, C., Makuch, P., Malinowski, S., Manta, G., Marinou, E., Marsden, N., Masson, S., Maury, N., Mayer, B., Mayers-Als, M., Mazel, C., McGeary, W., McWilliams, J. C., Mech, M., Mehlmann, M., Meroni, A. N., Mieslinger, T., Minikin, A., Minnett, P., Möller, G., Morfa Avalos, Y., Muller, C., Musat, I., Napoli, A., Neuberger, A., Noisel, C., Noone, D., Nordsiek, F., Nowak, J. L., Oswald, L., Parker, D. J., Peck, C., Person, R., Philippi, M., Plueddemann, A., Pöhlker, C., Pörtge, V., Pöschl, U., Pologne, L., Posyniak, M., Prange, M., Quiñones Meléndez, E., Radtke, J., Ramage, K., Reimann, J., Renault, L., Reus, K., Reyes, A., Ribbe, J., Ringel, M., Ritschel, M., Rocha, C. B., Rochetin, N., Röttenbacher, J., Rollo, C., Royer, H., Sadoulet, P., Saffin, L., Sandiford, S., Sandu, I., Schäfer, M., Schemann, V., Schirmacher, I., Schlenczek, O., Schmidt, J., Schröder, M., Schwarzenboeck, A., Sealy, A., Senff, C. J., Serikov, I., Shohan, S., Siddle, E., Smirnov, A., Späth, F., Spooner, B., Stolla, M. K., Szkółka, W., de Szoeke, S. P., Tarot, S., Tetoni, E., Thompson, E., Thomson, J., Tomassini, L., Totems, J., Ubele, A. A., Villiger, L., von Arx, J., Wagner, T., Walther, A., Webber, B., Wendisch, M., Whitehall, S., Wiltshire, A., Wing, A. A., Wirth, M., Wiskandt, J., Wolf, K., Worbes, L., Wright, E., Wulfmeyer, V., Young, S., Zhang, C., Zhang, D., Ziemen, F., Zinner, T., and Zöger, M.: EUREC4A. Earth System Science Data, 13(8), (2021): 4067–4119, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4067-2021.

Description: The science guiding the EUREC4A campaign and its measurements is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. Through its ability to characterize processes operating across a wide range of scales, EUREC4A marked a turning point in our ability to observationally study factors influencing clouds in the trades, how they will respond to warming, and their link to other components of the earth system, such as upper-ocean processes or the life cycle of particulate matter. This characterization was made possible by thousands (2500) of sondes distributed to measure circulations on meso- (200 km) and larger (500 km) scales, roughly 400 h of flight time by four heavily instrumented research aircraft; four global-class research vessels; an advanced ground-based cloud observatory; scores of autonomous observing platforms operating in the upper ocean (nearly 10 000 profiles), lower atmosphere (continuous profiling), and along the air–sea interface; a network of water stable isotopologue measurements; targeted tasking of satellite remote sensing; and modeling with a new generation of weather and climate models. In addition to providing an outline of the novel measurements and their composition into a unified and coordinated campaign, the six distinct scientific facets that EUREC4A explored – from North Brazil Current rings to turbulence-induced clustering of cloud droplets and its influence on warm-rain formation – are presented along with an overview of EUREC4A's outreach activities, environmental impact, and guidelines for scientific practice. Track data for all platforms are standardized and accessible at https://doi.org/10.25326/165 (Stevens, 2021), and a film documenting the campaign is provided as a video supplement.

Description: This research has been supported by the people and government of Barbados; the Max Planck Society and its supporting members; the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (grant nos. GPF18-1_69 and GPF18-2_50); the European Research Council (ERC) advanced grant EUREC4A (grant agreement no. 694768) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (H2020), with additional support from CNES (the French National Centre for Space Studies) through the EECLAT proposal, Météo-France, the CONSTRAIN H2020 project (grant agreement no. 820829), and the French AERIS Research Infrastructure; the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/S015868/1, NE/S015752/1, and NE/S015779/1); ERC under the European Union’s H2020 program (COMPASS, advanced grant agreement no. 74110); the French national program LEFE INSU, by IFREMER, the French research fleet, CNES, the French research infrastructures AERIS and ODATIS, IPSL, the Chaire Chanel program of the Geosciences Department at ENS, and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no. 817578 TRIATLAS; NOAA’s Climate Variability and Prediction Program within the Climate Program Office (grant nos. GC19-305 and GC19-301); NOAA cooperative agreement NA15OAR4320063; NOAA's Climate Program Office and base funds to NOAA/AOML's Physical Oceanography Division; Swiss National Science Foundation grant no. 188731; the UAS Program Office, Climate Program Office, and Physical Sciences Laboratory and by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) through grant AGS-1938108; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy – EXC 2037 “CLICCS – Climate, Climatic Change, and Society” – project no. 390683824; and Poland’s National Science Centre grant no. UMO-2018/30/M/ST10/00674 and Foundation for Polish Science grant no. POIR.04.04.00-00-3FD6/17-02.

Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hagos, S., Foltz, G. R., Zhang, C., Thompson, E., Seo, H., Chen, S., Capotondi, A., Reed, K. A., DeMott, C., & Protat, A. Atmospheric convection and air-sea interactions over the tropical oceans: scientific progress, challenges, and opportunities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(3), (2020): E253-E258, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0261.1.

Description: Over the past 30 years, the scientific community has made considerable progress in understanding and predicting tropical convection and air–sea interactions, thanks to sustained investments in extensive in situ and remote sensing observations, targeted field experiments, advances in numerical modeling, and vastly improved computational resources and observing technologies. Those investments would not have been fruitful as isolated advancements without the collaborative effort of the atmospheric convection and air–sea interaction research communities. In this spirit, a U.S.- and International CLIVAR–sponsored workshop on “Atmospheric convection and air–sea interactions over the tropical oceans” was held in the spring of 2019 in Boulder, Colorado. The 90 participants were observational and modeling experts from the atmospheric convection and air–sea interactions communities with varying degrees of experience, from early-career researchers and students to senior scientists. The presentations and discussions covered processes over the broad range of spatiotemporal scales (Fig. 1).

Description: The workshop was sponsored by the United States and International CLIVAR. Funding was provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Naval Research, NOAA, NSF, and the World Climate Research Programme. We thank Mike Patterson, Jennie Zhu, and Jeff Becker from the U.S. CLIVAR Project Office for coordinating the workshop.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101(10), (2020): E1842-E1850, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0263.1.

Description: Process studies are designed to improve our understanding of poorly described physical processes that are central to the behavior of the climate system. They typically include coordinated efforts of intensive field campaigns in the atmosphere and/or ocean to collect a carefully planned set of in situ observations. Ideally the observational portion of a process study is paired with numerical modeling efforts that lead to better representation of a poorly simulated or previously neglected physical process in operational and research models. This article provides a framework of best practices to help guide scientists in carrying out more productive, collaborative, and successful process studies. Topics include the planning and implementation of a process study and the associated web of logistical challenges; the development of focused science goals and testable hypotheses; and the importance of assembling an integrated and compatible team with a diversity of social identity, gender, career stage, and scientific background. Guidelines are also provided for scientific data management, dissemination, and stewardship. Above all, developing trust and continual communication within the science team during the field campaign and analysis phase are key for process studies. We consider a successful process study as one that ultimately will improve our quantitative understanding of the mechanisms responsible for climate variability and enhance our ability to represent them in climate models.

Description: We gratefully acknowledge U.S. CLIVAR for supporting the PSMI panel, as well as all the principal investigators that contributed to our PSMI panel webinars. JS was inspired by participation in the process studies funded by NASA NNH18ZDA001N-OSFC and NOAA NA17OAR4310257; GF was supported by base funds to NOAA/AOML’s Physical Oceanography Division; and HS was supported by NOAA NA19OAR4310376 and NA17OAR4310255.

Description: 2021-04-01

Description: Rapid intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30-year satellite period of 1986–2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24-hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large-scale environment, has predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Description: Sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) are metrics used to incorporate the ocean’s influence on hurricane intensification into the National Hurricane Center’s Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). While both SST and TCHP serve as useful measures of the upper-ocean heat content, they do not accurately represent ocean stratification effects. Here, it is shown that replacing SST within the SHIPS framework with a dynamic temperature Tdy, which accounts for the oceanic negative feedback to the hurricane’s intensity arising from storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface cooling, improves the model performance. While the model with SST and TCHP explains about 41% of the variance in 36-h intensity changes, replacing SST with Tdy increases the variance explained to nearly 44%. These results suggest that representation of the oceanic feedback, even through relatively simple formulations such as Tdy, may improve the performance of statistical hurricane intensity prediction models such as SHIPS.

Description: This study examines the causes of observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic between 1982 and 2015. The emphasis is on the boreal winter and spring seasons, when tropical Atlantic SSTs project strongly onto the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM). Results from a composite analysis of satellite and reanalysis data show important forcing of SST anomalies by wind-driven changes in mixed layer depth and shortwave radiation between 5° and 10°N, in addition to the well-known positive wind–evaporation–SST and shortwave radiation–SST feedbacks between 5° and 20°N. Anomalous surface winds also drive pronounced thermocline depth anomalies of opposite signs in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; 2°–8°N). A major new finding is that there is strong event-to-event variability in the impact of thermocline depth on SST in the ITCZ region, in contrast to the more consistent relationship in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. Much stronger anomalies of meridional wind stress, thermocline depth, and vertical turbulent cooling are found in the ITCZ region during a negative AMM event in 2009 compared to a negative event in 2015 and a positive event in 2010, despite SST anomalies of similar magnitude in the early stages of each event. The larger anomalies in 2009 led to a much stronger and longer-lived event. Possible causes of the inconsistent relationship between thermocline depth and SST in the ITCZ region are discussed, including the preconditioning role of the winter cross-equatorial SST gradient.