ALBERT

Description: This report summarizes the activities of the Washington Correlator for 2012. The Washington Correlator provides up to 80 hours of attended processing per week plus up to 40 hours of unattended operation, primarily supporting Earth Orientation and astrometric observations. In 2012, the major programs supported include the IVS-R4, IVS-INT, APSG, and CRF observing sessions.

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: This presentation covered the original plan for the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Data Catalog available through the ESPO HS3 mission page (http://espo.nasa.gov/missions/hs3/) and provided examples of Model Products, Operational Products, and Research (Instrument) Products from the 2012 field campaign. The presentation also covered lessons learned and suggested improvements to the Data Catalog for the upcoming 2013 HS3 field campaign.

Description: Key points this analysis will address: 1) What physically is going on in the cloud when there is a jump in lightning? -- Updraft variations, Ice fluxes 2) How do these processes fit in with severe storm conceptual models? 3) What would this information provide an end user? --Relate LJA to radar observations, like changes in reflectivity, MESH, VIL, etc. based multi -Doppler derived physical relationships

Description: The South Polar Residual Cap (SPRC) on Mars is an icy reservoir of CO2. If all the CO2 trapped in the SPRC were released to the atmosphere the mean annual global surface pressure would rise by approx. 20 Pa. Repeated MOC and HiRISE imaging of scarp retreat rates within the SPRC have led to the suggestion that the SPRC is losing mass. Estimates for the loss rate vary between 0.5 Pa per Mars Deacde to 13 Pa per Mars Decade. Assuming 80% of this loss goes directly to the atmosphere, and that the loss is monotonic, the global annual mean surface pressure should have increased between approx. 1-20 Pa since the Viking mission (19 Mars years ago).

Description: We present calculations of the early stages of the formation of Jupiter via core nucleated accretion and gas capture. The core begins as a seed body of about 350 kilometers in radius and orbits in a swarm of planetesimals whose initial radii range from 15 meters to 100 kilometers. We follow the evolution of the swarm by accounting for growth and fragmentation, viscous and gravitational stirring, and for drag-induced migration and velocity damping. Gas capture by the core substantially enhances the cross-section of the planet for accretion of small planetesimals. The dust opacity within the atmosphere surrounding the planetary core is computed self-consistently, accounting for coagulation and sedimentation of dust particles released in the envelope as passing planetesimals are ablated. The calculation is carried out at an orbital semi-major axis of 5.2 AU and an initial solids' surface density of 10/g/cm^2 at that distance. The results give a core mass of 7 Earth masses and an envelope mass of approximately 0.1 Earth mass after 500,000 years, at which point the envelope growth rate surpasses that of the core. The same calculation without the envelope gives a core mass of only 4 Earth masses.

Description: Pyrocumulus clouds above three Colorado wildfires (Hewlett Gulch, High Park, and Waldo Canyon; all occurred during summer 2012) electrified and produced small intracloud discharges whenever the smoke plumes grew to high altitudes (over 10 km above mean sea level, or MSL). This occurred during periods of rapid wildfire growth, as indicated by the shortwave infrared channel on a geostationary satellite, as well as by incident reports. In the Hewlett Gulch case, the fire growth led to increased updrafts within the plume, as inferred by multiple Doppler radar syntheses, which led to the vertical development and subsequent electrification a life cycle as short as 30 minutes. The lightning, detected by a threedimensional lightning mapping network, was favored in highaltitude regions (~10 km MSL) containing modest reflectivities (25 dBZ and lower), ~0 dB differential reflectivity, and reduced correlation coefficient (~0.60.7). This indicated the likely presence of ice particles (crystals and aggregates, possibly rimed) mixed with ash. Though neither multipleDoppler nor polarimetric observations were available during the electrification of the High Park and Waldo Canyon plumes, their NEXRAD observations showed reflectivity structures consistent with Hewlett Gulch. In addition, polarimetric and multipleDoppler scanning of unelectrified High Park plumes indicated only irregularly shaped ash, and not ice, was present (i.e., reflectivities 〈 25 dBZ, differential reflectivity 〉 5 dB, correlation 〈 0.4), and there was no broaching of the 10 km altitude. Based on these results, the electrification likely was caused by icebased processes that did not involve significant amounts of graupel. The results demonstrate the scientific value of multipleDoppler and polarimetric radar observations of wildfire smoke plumes including the ability to distinguish between regions of pure hydrometeors, regions of pure ash, and mixtures of both and also suggest a possible new application for lightning data in monitoring wildfires.

Description: We present a detailed description of a small mission capable of obtaining high precision and meaningful measurement of the Xray polarization of a variety of different classes of cosmic Xray sources. Compared to other ideas that have been suggested this experiment has demonstrated in the laboratory a number of extremely important features relevant to the ultimate selection of such a mission by a funding agency. The most important of these questions are: 1) Have you demonstrated the sensitivity to a polarized beam at the energies of interest (i.e. the energies which represent the majority (not the minority) of detected photons from the Xray source of interest? 2) Have you demonstrated that the device's sensitivity to an unpolarized beam is really negligible and/or quantified the impact of any systematic effects upon actual measurements? We present our answers to these questions backed up by laboratory measurements and give an overview of the mission.

Description: NearEarth objects (NEOs) are essential to understanding the origin of the Solar System. Their relatively small sizes and complex dynamical histories make them excellent laboratories for studying ongoing Solar System processes. The proximity of NEOs to Earth makes them favorable targets for space missions. In addition, knowledge of their physical properties is crucial for impact hazard assessment. However, in spite of their importance to science, exploration, and planetary defense, a representative sample of physical characteristics for subkm NEOs does not exist. Here we present the Mission Accessible NearEarth Objects Survey (MANOS), a multiyear survey of subkm NEOs that will provide a large, uniform catalog of physical properties (light curves + colors + spectra + astrometry), representing a 100fold increase over the current level of NEO knowledge within this size range. This survey will ultimately characterize more than 300 missionaccessible NEOs across the visible and nearinfrared ranges using telescopes in both the northern and southern hemispheres. MANOS has been awarded 24 nights per semester for the next three years on NOAO facilities including Gemini North and South, the Kitt Peak Mayall 4m, and the SOAR 4m. Additional telescopic assets available to our team include facilities at Lowell Observatory, the University of Hawaii 2.2m, NASA's IRTF, and the Magellan 6.5m telescopes. Our focus on subkm sizes and mission accessibility (dv 〈 7 km/s) is a novel approach to physical characterization studies and is possible through a regular cadence of observations designed to access newly discovered NEOs within days or weeks of first detection before they fade beyond observational limits. The resulting comprehensive catalog will inform global properties of the NEO population, advance scientific understanding of NEOs, produce essential data for robotic and spacecraft exploration, and develop a critical knowledge base to address the risk of NEO impacts. We intend to conduct this survey with complete transparency, publicly sharing our target lists and survey progress. We invite collaborative uses for these data as a way to broaden the scientific impact of this survey.

Description: Surveys of brown dwarf variability continue to find that roughly half of all brown dwarfs are variable. While variability is observed amongst all types of brown dwarfs, amplitudes are typically greatest for L-T transition objects. In my talk I will discuss the possible physical mechanisms that are responsible for the observed variability. I will particularly focus on comparing and contrasting the effects of changes in atmospheric thermal profile and cloud opacity. The two different mechanisms will produce different variability signatures and I will discuss the extent to which the current datasets constrain both mechanisms. By combining constraints from studies of variability with existing spectral and photometric datasets we can begin to construct and test self-consistent models of brown dwarf atmospheres. These models not only aid in the interpretation of existing objects but also inform studies of directly imaged giant planets.

Description: Four electrified snowfall cases are examined using total lightning measurements from lightning mapping arrays (LMAs), and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) from Huntsville, AL and Washington D.C. In each of these events, electrical activity was in conjunction with heavy snowfall rates, sometimes exceeding 5-8 cm hr-1. A combination of LMA, and NLDN data also indicate that many of these flashes initiated from tall communications towers and traveled over large horizontal distances. During events near Huntsville, AL, the Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR) C-band polarimetric radar was collecting range height indicators (RHIs) through regions of heavy snowfall. The combination of ARMOR polarimetric radar and VHF LMA observations suggested contiguous layer changes in height between sloping aggregate-dominated layers and horizontally-oriented crystals. These layers may have provided ideal conditions for the development of extensive regions of charge and resultant horizontal propagation of the lightning flashes over large distances.

Description: The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign investigates the impact of deep, midlatitude convective clouds, including their dynamical, physical and lighting processes, on upper tropospheric composition and chemistry. DC3 science operations took place from 14 May to 30 June 2012. The DC3 field campaign utilized instrumented aircraft and ground ]based observations. The NCAR Gulfstream ]V (GV) observed a variety of gas ]phase species, radiation and cloud particle characteristics in the high ]altitude outflow of storms while the NASA DC ]8 characterized the convective inflow. Groundbased radar networks were used to document the kinematic and microphysical characteristics of storms. In order to study the impact of lightning on convective outflow composition, VHF ]based lightning mapping arrays (LMAs) provided detailed three ]dimensional measurements of flashes. Mobile soundings were utilized to characterize the meteorological environment of the convection. Radar, sounding and lightning observations were also used in real ]time to provide forecasting and mission guidance to the aircraft operations. Combined aircraft and ground ]based observations were conducted at three locations, 1) northeastern Colorado, 2) Oklahoma/Texas and 3) northern Alabama, to study different modes of deep convection in a variety of meteorological and chemical environments. The objective of this paper is to summarize the Alabama ground operations and provide a preliminary assessment of the ground ]based observations collected over northern Alabama during DC3. The multi ] Doppler, dual ]polarization radar network consisted of the UAHuntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR), the UAHuntsville Mobile Alabama X ]band (MAX) radar and the Hytop (KHTX) Weather Surveillance Radar 88 Doppler (WSR ]88D). Lightning frequency and structure were observed in near real ]time by the NASA MSFC Northern Alabama LMA (NALMA). Pre ]storm and inflow proximity soundings were obtained with the UAHuntsville mobile sounding unit and the Redstone Arsenal (QAG) morning sounding.

Description: The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. In order to become a viable option for operational forecasters to incorporate into their severe storm monitoring process, the total lightning jump must be placed into the framework of several severe storm conceptual models (e.g., radar evolution, storm morphology) which forecasters have built through training and experience. Thus, one of the goals of this study is to examine and relate the lightning jump concept to often used radar parameters (e.g., dBZ vertical structure, VIL, MESH, MESO/shear) in the warning environment. Tying lightning trends and lightning jump occurrences to these radar based parameters will provide forecasters with an additional tool that they can use to build an accurate realtime depiction as to what is going on in a given environment. Furthermore, relating the lightning jump concept to these parameters could also increase confidence in a warning decision they have already made, help tip the scales on whether or not to warn on a given storm, or to draw the forecaster s attention to a particular storm that is rapidly developing. Furthermore the lightning information will add vital storm scale information in regions that are not well covered by radar, or when radar failures occur. The physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation -sized ice mass, etc.; however, very few have related the concept of the lightning jump and manifestation of severe weather to storm dynamics and microphysics using multi -Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques. Therefore, the second half of this study will combine the lightning jump algorithm and these radar techniques in order to place the lightning jump concept into a physical and dynamical framework. This analysis includes examining such parameters as mixed phase precipitation volume, charging zone, updraft strength and updraft volume. Such a study should provide increased understanding of and confidence in the strengths and limitations of the lightning jump algorithm in the storm warning process.

Description: Current and future satellite sensors provide remotely sensed quantities from a variety of wavelengths ranging from the visible to the passive microwave, from both geostationary and low ]Earth orbits. The NASA Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has a long history of providing multispectral imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA fs Terra and Aqua satellites in support of NWS forecast office activities. Products from MODIS have recently been extended to include a broader suite of multispectral imagery similar to those developed by EUMETSAT, based upon the spectral channels available from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) aboard METEOSAT ]9. This broader suite includes products that discriminate between air mass types associated with synoptic ]scale features, assists in the identification of dust, and improves upon paired channel difference detection of fog and low cloud events. Future instruments will continue the availability of these products and also expand upon current capabilities. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on GOES ]R will improve the spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution of our current geostationary capabilities, and the recent launch of the Suomi National Polar ]Orbiting Partnership (S ]NPP) carries instruments such as the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Cross ]track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which have unrivaled spectral and spatial resolution, as precursors to the JPSS era (i.e., the next generation of polar orbiting satellites. New applications from VIIRS extend multispectral composites available from MODIS and SEVIRI while adding new capabilities through incorporation of additional CrIS channels or information from the Near Constant Contrast or gDay ]Night Band h, which provides moonlit reflectance from clouds and detection of fires or city lights. This presentation will present a review of SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL collaborations regarding multispectral satellite imagery and recent applications within the operational forecasting environment

Description: Estimation of rainfall integral parameters, including radar observables, and empirical relations between them are sensitive to the truncation of the drop size distribution (DSD), particularly at the large drop end. The sensitivity of rainfall integral parameters to the maximum drop diameter (D(sub max)) is exacerbated at Cband since resonance effects are pronounced for large drops in excess of 5 mm diameter (D). Due to sampling limitations, it is often difficult to reliably estimate D(sub max) with disdrometers. The resulting uncertainties in D(sub max0 potentially increase errors in radar retrieval methods, particularly at Cband, that rely on disdrometer observations for DSD input to radar models. In fact, D(sub max) is typically an assumed DSD parameter in the development of radar retrieval methods. Because of these very uncertainties, it is difficult to independently confirm disdrometer estimates of D(sub max) with polarimetric radar observations. A couple of approaches can be taken to reduce uncertainty in large drop measurement. Longer integration times can be used for the collection of larger disdrometer samples. However, integration periods must be consistent with a radar resolution volume (RRV) and the temporal and spatial scales of the physical processes affecting the DSD therein. Multiple colocated disdrometers can be combined into a network to increase the sample size within a RRV. However, over a reasonable integration period, a single disdrometer sample volume is many orders of magnitudes less than a RRV so it is not practical to devise a network of disdrometers that has an equivalent volume to a typical RRV. Since knowledge of DSD heterogeneity and large drop occurrence in time and space is lacking, the specific accuracy or even general representativeness of disdrometer based D(sub max) and large drop concentration estimates within a RRV are currently unknown. To address this complex issue, we begin with a simpler question. Is the frequency of occurrence of large rain drops (D 〉 5 mm) in disdrometer observations, either stand alone or networked, generally representative and consistent with polarimetric radar observations? We first show from simulations that the concentration of large (D 〉 5 mm) rain drops (N(sub T5)) can be estimated from polarimetric observations of specific differential phase (K(sub dp)) and differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)), N(sub T5)=F(K(sub dp),Z(sub dr)), or horizontal reflectivity (Z(sub h)) and Z(sub dr), N(sub T5)=(Z(sub h),Z(sub dr)). We assess the error associated with polarimetric retrieval of N(sub T5), including sensitivity to D(sub max) parameterization assumptions and measurement error in the radar simulations. Polarimetric measurements at Sband and Cband will then be used to retrieve estimates of N(sub T5) and compared to disdrometer estimates of N(sub T5). After careful consideration of retrieval error, we will check consistency between disdrometer and polarimetric radar estimates of N(sub T5) and the frequency of occurrence of large rain drops in a variety of precipitating regimes using data from NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ground Validation (GV) program, including field campaigns such as MC3E (Oklahoma) and IFloodS (Iowa) and extended measurements over Huntsville, Alabama and NASA Wallops Flight Facility in coastal Virginia.

Description: NASA's routine monitoring of lunar impact flashes has recorded nearly 300 impacts since 2006. On 17 March 2013 the brightest event to date was observed in two 0.35m telescopes at the Marshall Space Flight Center. With a peak red magnitude brighter than 4.3 and an impact flash visible for over 1 second, the impact kinetic energy was equivalent to nearly 5 tons of TNT. A possible association with a meteor shower observed in the Earth's atmosphere will be described. Corresponding crater dimensions and observability of the impact crater by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will also be discussed.

Description: We acquired near-infrared spectra of the Oort cloud comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) at three different heliocentric distances (R h) during the comet's 2013 perihelion passage, providing a comprehensive measure of the outgassing behavior of parent volatiles and cosmogonic indicators. Our observations were performed pre-perihelion at R h = 1.2 AU with CRIRES (on 2013 February 2 and 4), and post-perihelion at R h = 0.75 AU with CSHELL (on March 31 and April 1) and R h = 1.74 AU with NIRSPEC (on June 20). We detected 10 volatile species (H2O, OH* prompt emission, C2H6, CH3OH, H2CO, HCN, CO, CH4, NH3, and NH2), and obtained upper limits for two others (C2H2 and HDO). One-dimensional spatial profiles displayed different distributions for some volatiles, confirming either the existence of polar and apolar ices, or of chemically distinct active vents in the nucleus. The ortho-para ratio for water was 3.31 +/- 0.33 (weighted mean of CRIRES and NIRSPEC results), implying a spin temperature 〉37 K at the 95% confidence limit. Our (3) upper limit for HDO corresponds to D/H 〈 2.45 10-3 (i.e., 〈16 Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water, VSMOW). At R h = 1.2 AU (CRIRES), the production rate for water was Q(H2O) = 1.9 +/- 0.1 1029 s-1 and its rotational temperature was T rot ~ 69 K. At R h = 0.75 AU (CSHELL), we measured Q(H2O) = 4.6 +/- 0.6 1029 s-1 and T rot = 80 K on March 31, and 6.6 +/- 0.9 1029 s-1 and T rot = 100 K on April 1. At R h = 1.74 AU (NIRSPEC), we obtained Q(H2O) = 1.1 +/- 0.1 1029 s-1 and T rot ~ 50 K. The measured volatile abundance ratios classify comet C/2012 F6 as rather depleted in C2H6 and CH3OH, while HCN, CH4, and CO displayed abundances close to their median values found among comets. H2CO was the only volatile showing a relative enhancement. The relative paucity of C2H6 and CH3OH (with respect to H2O) suggests formation within warm regions of the nebula. However, the normal abundance of HCN and hypervolatiles CH4 and CO, and the enhancement of H2CO, may indicate a possible heterogeneous nucleus of comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon), possibly as a result of radial mixing within the protoplanetary disk

Description: Four model intercomparisons were run and evaluated using the TWP-ICE field campaign, each involving different types of atmospheric model. Here we highlight what can be learnt from having single-column model (SCM), cloud-resolving model (CRM), global atmosphere model (GAM) and limited-area model (LAM) intercomparisons all based around the same field campaign. We also make recommendations for anyone planning further large multi-model intercomparisons to ensure they are of maximum value to the model development community. CRMs tended to match observations better than other model types, although there were exceptions such as outgoing long-wave radiation. All SCMs grew large temperature and moisture biases and performed worse than other model types for many diagnostics. The GAMs produced a delayed and significantly reduced peak in domain-average rain rate when compared to the observations. While it was shown that this was in part due to the analysis used to drive these models, the LAMs were also driven by this analysis and did not have the problem to the same extent. Based on differences between the models with parametrized convection (SCMs and GAMs) and those without (CRMs and LAMs), we speculate that that having explicit convection helps to constrain liquid water whereas the ice contents are controlled more by the representation of the microphysics.

Description: Results from twin control simulations of the preindustrial CO2 gas exchange (natural flux of CO2) between the ocean and the atmosphere are presented here using the NASA-GISS climate model, in which the same atmospheric component (modelE2) is coupled to two different ocean models, the Russell ocean model and HYCOM. Both incarnations of the GISS climate model are also coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (NOBM) which estimates prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2. Model intercomparison is carried out at equilibrium conditions and model differences are contrasted with biases from present day climatologies. Although the models agree on the spatial patterns of the air-sea flux of CO2, they disagree on the strength of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean sinks mainly because of kinematic (winds) and chemistry (pCO2) differences rather than thermodynamic (SST) ones. Biology/chemistry dissimilarities in the models stem from the different parameterizations of advective and diffusive processes, such as overturning, mixing and horizontal tracer advection and to a lesser degree from parameterizations of biogeochemical processes such as gravitational settling and sinking. The global meridional overturning circulation illustrates much of the different behavior of the biological pump in the two models, together with differences in mixed layer depth which are responsible for different SST, DIC and nutrient distributions in the two models and consequently different atmospheric feedbacks (in the wind, net heat and freshwater fluxes into the ocean).

Description: The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.

Description: Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Description: We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

Description: Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

Description: The diurnal variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) can be significant, depending on location and dominant aerosol type. However, these diurnal cycles have rarely been taken into account in measurement-based estimates of aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) or aerosol direct radiative effect (ADRE). The objective of our study was to estimate the influence of diurnal aerosol variability at the top of the atmosphere ADRE estimates. By including all the possible AERONET sites, we wanted to assess the influence on global ADRE estimates. While focusing also in more detail on some selected sites of strongest impact, our goal was to also see the possible impact regionally.We calculated ADRE with different assumptions about the daily AOD variability: taking the observed daily AOD cycle into account and assuming diurnally constant AOD. Moreover, we estimated the corresponding differences in ADREs, if the single AOD value for the daily mean was taken from the the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra or Aqua overpass times, instead of accounting for the true observed daily variability. The mean impact of diurnal AOD variability on 24 h ADRE estimates, averaged over all AERONET sites, was rather small and it was relatively small even for the cases when AOD was chosen to correspond to the Terra or Aqua overpass time. This was true on average over all AERONET sites, while clearly there can be much stronger impact in individual sites. Examples of some selected sites demonstrated that the strongest observed AOD variability (the strongest morning afternoon contrast) does not typically result in a significant impact on 24 h ADRE. In those cases, the morning and afternoon AOD patterns are opposite and thus the impact on 24 h ADRE, when integrated over all solar zenith angles, is reduced. The most significant effect on daily ADRE was induced by AOD cycles with either maximum or minimum AOD close to local noon. In these cases, the impact on 24 h ADRE was typically around 0.1-0.2W/sq m (both positive and negative) in absolute values, 5-10% in relative ones.

Description: We report an analysis of transit spectroscopy of the extrasolar planets WASP-12 b, WASP-17 b, and WASP-19 b using the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We analyze the data for a single transit for each planet using a strategy similar, in certain aspects, to the techniques used by Berta et al., but we extend their methodology to allow us to correct for channel- or wavelength-dependent instrumental effects by utilizing the band-integrated time series and measurements of the drift of the spectrum on the detector over time. We achieve almost photon-limited results for individual spectral bins, but the uncertainties in the transit depth for the band-integrated data are exacerbated by the uneven sampling of the light curve imposed by the orbital phasing of HST's observations. Our final transit spectra for all three objects are consistent with the presence of a broad absorption feature at 1.4 microns most likely due to water. However, the amplitude of the absorption is less than that expected based on previous observations with Spitzer, possibly due to hazes absorbing in the NIR or non-solar compositions. The degeneracy of models with different compositions and temperature structures combined with the low amplitude of any features in the data preclude our ability to place unambiguous constraints on the atmospheric composition without additional observations with WFC3 to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and/or a comprehensive multi-wavelength analysis. Key words: planetary systems - techniques: photometric - techniques: spectroscopic

Description: We compared four simulations of the 8.2 ka event to assess climate model sensitivity and skill in responding to North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. All of the simulations used the same freshwater forcing, 2.5 Sv for one year, applied to either the Hudson Bay (northeastern Canada) or Labrador Sea (between Canada's Labrador coast and Greenland). This freshwater pulse induced a decadal-mean slowdown of 10-25%in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of the models and caused a large-scale pattern of climate anomalies that matched proxy evidence for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The multi-model ensemble generated temperature anomalies that were just half as large as those from quantitative proxy reconstructions, however. Also, the duration of AMOC and climate anomalies in three of the simulations was only several decades, significantly shorter than the duration of approx.150 yr in the paleoclimate record. Possible reasons for these discrepancies include incorrect representation of the early Holocene climate and ocean state in the North Atlantic and uncertainties in the freshwater forcing estimates.

Description: Climate models have traditionally only represented heat and water fluxes within relatively shallow soil layers, but there is increasing interest in the possible role of heat and water exchanges with the deeper subsurface. Here, we integrate an idealized 50m deep aquifer into the land surface module of the GISS ModelE general circulation model to test the influence of aquifer-soil moisture and heat exchanges on climate variables. We evaluate the impact on the modeled climate of aquifer-soil heat and water fluxes separately, as well as in combination. The addition of the aquifer to ModelE has limited impact on annual-mean climate, with little change in global mean land temperature, precipitation, or evaporation. The seasonal amplitude of deep soil temperature is strongly damped by the soil-aquifer heat flux. This not only improves the model representation of permafrost area but propagates to the surface, resulting in an increase in the seasonal amplitude of surface air temperature of 〉1K in the Arctic. The soil-aquifer water and heat fluxes both slightly decrease interannual variability in soil moisture and in landsurface temperature, and decrease the soil moisture memory of the land surface on seasonal to annual timescales. The results of this experiment suggest that deepening the modeled land surface, compared to modeling only a shallower soil column with a no-flux bottom boundary condition, has limited impact on mean climate but does affect seasonality and interannual persistence.

Description: Hurricane Sandy's track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record, one of the factors contributing to recordsetting peak-water levels in parts of New Jersey and New York. To estimate the occurrence rate of Sandy-like tracks, we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricanes. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions, a hurricane of Sandy's intensity or greater (category 1+) makes NJ landfall at an angle at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy's at an average annual rate of 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 years (95% confidence range 435 to 1429).

Description: The tropical western Pacific (TWP) is an important climatic region. Strong solar heating, warm sea surface temperatures, and the annual progression of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) across this region generate abundant convective systems, which through their effects on the heat and water budgets have a profound impact on global climate and precipitation. In order to accurately evaluate tropical cloud systems in models, measurements of tropical clouds, the environment in which they reside, and their impact on the radiation and water budgets are needed. Because of the remote location, ground-based datasets of cloud, atmosphere, and radiation properties from the TWP region have come primarily from short-term field experiments. While providing extremely useful information on physical processes, these short-term datasets are limited in statistical and climatological information. To provide longterm measurements of the surface radiation budget in the tropics and the atmospheric properties that affect it, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program established a measurement site on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, in 1996 and on the island republic of Nauru in late 1998. These sites provide unique datasets now available for more than 10 years on Manus and Nauru. This article presents examples of the scientific use of these datasets including characterization of cloud properties, analysis of cloud radiative forcing, model studies of tropical clouds and processes, and validation of satellite algorithms. New instrumentation recently installed at the Manus site will provide expanded opportunities for tropical atmospheric science.

Description: In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

Description: Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

Description: The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

Description: In models, nucleation mode (1 nm〈Dp 〈10 nm) particle microphysics can be represented explicitly with aerosol microphysical processes or can be parameterized to obtain the growth and survival of nuclei to the model's lower size boundary. This study investigates how the representation of nucleation mode microphysics impacts aerosol number predictions in the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) aerosol microphysics model running with the GISS GCM II-prime by varying its lowest diameter boundary: 1 nm, 3 nm, and 10 nm. The model with the 1 nm boundary simulates the nucleation mode particles with fully resolved microphysical processes, while the model with the 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries uses a nucleation mode dynamics parameterization to account for the growth of nucleated particles to 10 nm and 3 nm, respectively.We also investigate the impact of the time step for aerosol microphysical processes (a 10 min versus a 1 h time step) to aerosol number predictions in the TOMAS models with explicit dynamics for the nucleation mode particles (i.e., 3 nm and 1 nm boundary). The model with the explicit microphysics (i.e., 1 nm boundary) with the 10 min time step is used as a numerical benchmark simulation to estimate biases caused by varying the lower size cutoff and the time step. Different representations of the nucleation mode have a significant effect on the formation rate of particles larger than 10 nm from nucleated particles (J10) and the burdens and lifetimes of ultrafinemode (10 nmDp 70 nm) particles but have less impact on the burdens and lifetimes of CCN-sized particles. The models using parameterized microphysics (i.e., 10 nm and 3 nm boundaries) result in higher J10 and shorter coagulation lifetimes of ultrafine-mode particles than the model with explicit dynamics (i.e., 1 nm boundary). The spatial distributions of CN10 (Dp 10 nm) and CCN(0.2 %) (i.e., CCN concentrations at 0.2%supersaturation) are moderately affected, especially CN10 predictions above 700 hPa where nucleation contributes most strongly to CN10 concentrations. The lowermost-layer CN10 is substantially improved with the 3 nm boundary (compared to 10 nm) in most areas. The overprediction in CN10 with the 3 nm and 10 nm boundaries can be explained by the overprediction of J10 or J3 with the parameterized microphysics, possibly due to the instantaneous growth rate assumption in the survival and growth parameterization. The errors in CN10 predictions are sensitive to the choice of the lower size boundary but not to the choice of the time step applied to the microphysical processes. The spatial distribution of CCN(0.2 %) with the 3 nm boundary is almost identical to that with the 1 nm boundary, but that with the 10 nm boundary can differ more than 10-40% in some areas. We found that the deviation in the 10 nm simulations is partly due to the longer time step (i.e., 1 h time step used in the 10 nm simulations compared to 10 min time step used in the benchmark simulations), but, even with the same time step, the 10 nm cutoff showed noticeably higher errors than the 3 nm cutoff. In conclusion, we generally recommend using a lower diameter boundary of 3 nm for studies focused on aerosol indirect effects but down to 1 nm boundary for studies focused on CN10 predictions or nucleation.

Description: A long-term, consistent, and reproducible satellite-based passive microwave sea ice concentration climate data record (CDR) is available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation with an initial operation capability (IOC). The daily and monthly sea ice concentration data are on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) polar stereographic grid with nominal 25 km 25 km grid cells in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere polar regions from 9 July 1987 to 31 December 2007. The data files are available in the NetCDF data format at http://nsidc.org/data/g02202.html and archived by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the satellite climate data record program (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html). The description and basic characteristics of the NOAA/NSIDC passive microwave sea ice concentration CDR are presented here. The CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability as the heritage products to the user communities with the additional documentation, traceability, and reproducibility that meet current standards and guidelines for climate data records. The data set, along with detailed data processing steps and error source information, can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5B56GN3.

Description: Trends and variations of Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes (GSSTF) version 2c (GSSTF2c) latent heat flux (LHF) are examined. This version of LHF takes account of the correction in Earth incidence angle. The trend of global mean LHF for GSSTF2c is much reduced relative to GSSTF version 2b Set 1 and Set 2 for the same period 1988-2008. Temporal increase of GSSTF2c LHF in the two decades is 11.0%, in which 3.1%, 5.8%, and 2.1% are attributed to the increase in wind, the increase in sea surface saturated air humidity, and the decrease in near-surface air humidity, respectively. The first empirical orthogonal function of LHF is a conventional El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode. However, the trends in LHF are independent of conventional ENSO phenomena. After removing ENSO signal, the pattern of LHF trends is primarily determined by the pattern of air-sea humidity difference trends.

Description: In this study, we investigate the formation predictability of Hurricane Sandy (2012) with a global mesoscale model. We first present five track and intensity forecasts of Sandy initialized at 00Z 22-26 October 2012, realistically producing its movement with a northwestward turn prior to its landfall. We then show that three experiments initialized at 00Z 16-18 October captured the genesis of Sandy with a lead time of up to 6 days and simulated reasonable evolution of Sandy's track and intensity in the next 2 day period of 18Z 21-23 October. Results suggest that the extended lead time of formation prediction is achieved by realistic simulations of multiscale processes, including (1) the interaction between an easterly wave and a low-level westerly wind belt (WWB) and (2) the appearance of the upper-level trough at 200 hPa to Sandy's northwest. The low-level WWB and upper-level trough are likely associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation.

Description: Recently, a new planet candidate was discovered on direct images around the young (10-17 Myr) A-type star HD 95086. The strong infrared excess of the system indicates that, similar to HR8799, Beta Pic, and Fomalhaut, the star harbors a circumstellar disk. Aiming to study the structure and gas content of the HD 95086 disk, and to investigate its possible interaction with the newly discovered planet, here we present new optical, infrared, and millimeter observations. We detected no CO emission, excluding the possibility of an evolved gaseous primordial disk. Simple blackbody modeling of the spectral energy distribution suggests the presence of two spatially separate dust belts at radial distances of 6 and 64 AU. Our resolved images obtained with the Herschel Space Observatory reveal a characteristic disk size of approx. 6.0 5.4 (540 490 AU) and disk inclination of approx 25 deg. Assuming the same inclination for the planet candidate's orbit, its reprojected radial distance from the star is 62 AU, very close to the blackbody radius of the outer cold dust ring. The structure of the planetary system at HD 95086 resembles the one around HR8799. Both systems harbor a warm inner dust belt and a broad colder outer disk and giant planet(s) between the two dusty regions. Modeling implies that the candidate planet can dynamically excite the motion of planetesimals even out to 270 AU via their secular perturbation if its orbital eccentricity is larger than about 0.4. Our analysis adds a new example to the three known systems where directly imaged planet(s) and debris disks coexist.

Description: Accurate retrievals of aerosol size distribution are necessary to estimate aerosols' impact on climate and human health. The inversions of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) usually retrieve bimodal distributions. However, when the inversion is applied to Saharan and Sahelian dust, an additional mode of intermediate size between the coarse and fine modes is sometimes seen. This mode explains peculiarities in the behavior of the Angstrom exponent, along with the fine mode fraction retrieved using the spectral deconvolution algorithm, observed in a March 2006 dust storm. For this study, 15 AERONET sites in northern Africa and on the Atlantic are examined to determine the frequency and properties of the intermediate mode. The mode is observed most frequently at Ilorin in Nigeria. It is also observed at Capo Verde and multiple sites located within the Sahel but much less frequently at sites in the northern Sahara and the Canary Islands. The presence of the intermediate mode coincides with increases in Angstrom exponent, fine mode fraction, single-scattering albedo, and to a lesser extent percent sphericity. The Angstrom exponent decreases with increasing optical depth at most sites when the intermediate mode is present, but the fine mode fraction does not. Single-scattering albedo does not steadily decrease with fine mode fraction when the intermediate mode is present, as it does in typical mixtures of dust and biomass-burning aerosols. Continued investigation is needed to further define the intermediate mode's properties, determine why it differs from most Saharan dust, and identify its climate and health effects.

Description: Rhines and Huybers are correct that the decreasing number of measurement stations in recent years contributed slightly to our calculated increase of extreme summer mean temperature anomalies. However, the increased frequency of extreme heat anomalies is accounted for mainly by (i) higher mean temperature of recent decades relative to the base period 1951-1980, and (ii) the continuing upward temperature trend during recent decades. The effect of decreasing stations is shown by comparing our prior analysis with results using only stations with data records in both the base period and recent years (Fig. 1). The distribution is noisier, and the area with temperature anomaly exceeding three SDs during 2001-2011 decreases from 9.6 to 9.3% for the reduced number of stations (1,886 rather than 6,147), but our conclusions are not changed qualitatively. The temperature anomaly distribution shifts to the right and broadens because it is defined relative to a fixed (1951-1980) base period, during which global temperatures were within the Holocene range. We argue on the basis of accelerating ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica and rapidly rising sea level (now exceeding 3 mm/y or 3 m per millennium) that temperatures in the early 21st century are already above the Holocene range, and thus use of a base period preceding the rapid warming of the past three decades has merit.

Description: Over the past two decades there has been vigorous development in the satellite assets and the algorithms necessary to estimate precipitation around the globe. In particular the highly successful joint NASAJAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, also joint between NASA and JAXA, have driven these issues. At the same time, the long-running Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) continues to extend a stable, climate-oriented view of global precipitation. This talk will provide an overview of these projects and the wider international community of precipitation datasets, sketch plans for next-generation products, and provide some examples of the best use for the different products. One key lesson learned is that different data sets are needed to address the variety of issues that need precipitation data, including detailed 3-D views of hurricanes, flash flood forecasting, drought analysis, and global change.

Description: A Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry- Climate Model (GEOSCCM) simulation with strong tropical non-orographic gravity wave drag (GWD) is compared to an otherwise identical simulation with near-zero tropical non-orographic GWD. The GEOSCCM generates a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) zonal wind signal in response to a tropical peak in GWD that resembles the zonal and climatological mean precipitation field. The modelled QBO has a frequency and amplitude that closely resembles observations. As expected, the modelled QBO improves the simulation of tropical zonal winds and enhances tropical and subtropical stratospheric variability. Also, inclusion of the QBO slows the meridional overturning circulation, resulting in a generally older stratospheric mean age of air. Slowing of the overturning circulation, changes in stratospheric temperature and enhanced subtropical mixing all affect the annual mean distributions of ozone, methane and nitrous oxide. Furthermore, the modelled QBO enhances polar stratospheric variability in winter. Because tropical zonal winds are easterly in the simulation without a QBO, there is a relative increase in tropical zonal winds in the simulation with a QBO. Extratropical differences between the simulations with and without a QBO thus reflect the westerly shift in tropical zonal winds: a relative strengthening of the polar stratospheric jet, polar stratospheric cooling and a weak reduction in Arctic lower stratospheric ozone.

Description: Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (+/-1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/-17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/-10 percent. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/-3 percent. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/-30 percent for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44+/-12 percent), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 percent), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 percent) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 percent); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(2) DU(1), a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

Description: This study analyzes characteristics of clouds and vertical motion across extratropical cyclone warm fronts in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model. The validity of the modeled clouds is assessed using a combination of satellite observations from CloudSat, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The analysis focuses on developing cyclones, to test the model's ability to generate their initial structure. To begin, the extratropical cyclones and their warm fronts are objectively identified and cyclone-local fields are mapped into a vertical transect centered on the surface warm front. To further isolate specific physics, the cyclones are separated using conditional subsetting based on additional cyclone-local variables, and the differences between the subset means are analyzed. Conditional subsets are created based on 1) the transect clouds and 2) vertical motion; 3) the strength of the temperature gradient along the warm front, as well as the storm-local 4) wind speed and 5) precipitable water (PW). The analysis shows that the model does not generate enough frontal cloud, especially at low altitude. The subsetting results reveal that, compared to the observations, the model exhibits a decoupling between cloud formation at high and low altitudes across warm fronts and a weak sensitivity to moisture. These issues are caused in part by the parameterized convection and assumptions in the stratiform cloud scheme that are valid in the subtropics. On the other hand, the model generates proper covariability of low-altitude vertical motion and cloud at the warm front and a joint dependence of cloudiness on wind and PW.

Description: Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

Description: Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

Description: The past decade has been an especially exciting time to study atmospheres, with a renaissance in fundamental studies of Earths general circulation and hydrological cycle, stimulated by questions about past climates and the urgency of projecting the future impacts of humankinds activities. Long-term spacecraft and Earth-based observation of solar system planets have now reinvigorated the study of comparative planetary climatology. The explosion in discoveries of planets outside our solar system has made atmospheric science integral to understanding the diversity of our solar system and the potential habitability of planets outside it. Thus, the AGU Chapman Conference Crossing the Boundaries in Planetary Atmospheres From Earth to Exoplanets, held in Annapolis, MD from June 24-27, 2013 gathered Earth, solar system, and exoplanet scientists to share experiences, insights, and challenges from their individual disciplines, and discuss areas in which thinking broadly might enhance our fundamental understanding of how atmospheres work.

Description: An extratropical cyclone that crossed the United States on 9-11 April 2009 was successfully simulated at high resolution (3-km horizontal grid spacing) using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The sensitivity of the associated warm front to increasing pollution levels was then explored by conducting the same experiment with three different background profiles of cloud-nucleating aerosol concentration. To the authors' knowledge, no study has examined the indirect effects of aerosols on warm fronts. The budgets of ice, cloud water, and rain in the simulation with the lowest aerosol concentrations were examined. The ice mass was found to be produced in equal amounts through vapor deposition and riming, and the melting of ice produced approximately 75% of the total rain. Conversion of cloud water to rain accounted for the other 25%. When cloud-nucleating aerosol concentrations were increased, significant changes were seen in the budget terms, but total precipitation remained relatively constant. Vapor deposition onto ice increased, but riming of cloud water decreased such that there was only a small change in the total ice production and hence there was no significant change in melting. These responses can be understood in terms of a buffering effect in which smaller cloud droplets in the mixed-phase region lead to both an enhanced vapor deposition and decreased riming efficiency with increasing aerosol concentrations. Overall, while large changes were seen in the microphysical structure of the frontal cloud, cloud-nucleating aerosols had little impact on the precipitation production of the warm front.

Description: Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment.

Description: Several studies have suggested enhanced rates of warming in high-elevation regions since the latter half of the twentieth century. One of the potential reasons why enhanced rates of warming might occur at high elevations is the nonlinear relationship between downward longwave radiation (DLR) and specific humidity (q). Using ground-based observations at a high-elevation site in southwestern Colorado and coincident satellite-borne cloud retrievals, the sensitivity of DLR to changes in q and cloud properties is examined and quantified using a neural network method. It is also used to explore how the sensitivity of DLR to q (dDLR/dq) is affected by cloud properties. When binned by season, dDLR/dq is maximum in winter and minimum in summer for both clear and cloudy skies. However, the cloudy-sky sensitivities are smaller, primarily because (1) for both clear and cloudy skies dDLR/dq is proportional to 1/q, for q〉0.5 g/kg, and (2) the seasonal values of q are on average larger in the cloudy-sky cases than in clear-sky cases. For a given value of q, dDLR/dq is slightly reduced in the presence of clouds and this reduction increases as q increases. In addition, DLR is found to be more sensitive to changes in cloud fraction when cloud fraction is large. In the limit of overcast skies, DLR sensitivity to optical thickness decreases as clouds become more opaque. These results are based on only one high-elevation site, so the conclusions here need to be tested at other high-elevation locations.

Description: At the heart of eta Carinae's spectacular "Homunculus" nebula lies an extremely luminous (L(sub Total) greater than approximately 5 10(exp 6) solar luminosity) colliding wind binary with a highly eccentric (e approximately 0.9), 5.54-year orbit (Figure 1). The primary of the system, a Luminous Blue Variable (LBV), is our closest (D approximately 2.3 kpc) and best example of a pre-hypernova or pre-gamma ray burst environment. The remarkably consistent and periodic RXTE X-ray light curve surprisingly showed a major change during the system's last periastron in 2009, with the X-ray minimum being approximately 50% shorter than the minima of the previous two cycles1. Between 1998 and 2011, the strengths of various broad stellar wind emission lines (e.g. Halpha, Fe II) in line-of-sight (l.o.s.) also decreased by factors of 1.5 - 3 relative to the continuum2. The current interpretation for these changes is that they are due to a gradual factor of 2 - 4 drop in the primary's mass-loss rate over the last approximately 15 years1, 2. However, while a secular change is seen for a direct view of the central source, little to no change is seen in profiles at high stellar latitudes or reflected off of the dense, circumbinary material known as the "Weigelt blobs"2, 3. Moreover, model spectra generated with CMFGEN predict that a factor of 2 - 4 drop in the primary's mass-loss rate should lead to huge changes in the observed spectrum, which thus far have not been seen. Here we present results from large- (plus or minus 1620 AU) and small- (plus or minus 162 AU) domain, full 3D smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of eta Car's massive binary colliding winds for three different primary-star mass-loss rates (2.4, 4.8, and 8.5 10(exp -4) solar mass/yr). The goal is to investigate how the mass-loss rate affects the 3D geometry and dynamics of eta Car's optically-thick wind and spatially-extended wind-wind collision (WWC) regions, both of which are known sources of observed X-ray, optical, UV, and near-IR emission and absorption. We use two domain sizes in order to better understand how the primary's mass-loss rate influences the various observables that form at different length scales. The 3D simulations provide information important for helping constrain Car's recent mass-loss history and future state.

Description: As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5-3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores indicates a strong influence from Western Europe, but the modeled BC increases in that period are consistent with the emission changes in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, South and East Asia. At the Alps site, the simulated BC suggests a strong influence from Europe, which agrees with the Alps ice core observations. At Zuoqiupu on the Tibetan Plateau, models successfully simulate the higher BC concentrations observed during the non-monsoon season compared to the monsoon season but overpredict BC in both seasons. Despite a large divergence in BC deposition at two Antarctic ice core sites, some models with a BC lifetime of less than 7 days are able to capture the observed concentrations. In 2000 relative to 1850, globally and annually averaged BC surface albedo forcing from the offline simulations ranges from 0.014 to 0.019Wm2 among the ACCMIP models. Comparing offline and online BC albedo forcings computed by some of the same models, we find that the global annual mean can vary by up to a factor of two because of different aerosol models or different BC-snow parameterizations and snow cover. The spatial distributions of the offline BC albedo forcing in 2000 show especially high BC forcing (i.e., over 0.1W/sq. m) over Manchuria, Karakoram, and most of the Former USSR. Models predict the highest global annual mean BC forcing in 1980 rather than 2000, mostly driven by the high fossil fuel and biofuel emissions in the Former USSR in 1980.

Description: We use simultaneous observations of tropospheric ozone and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) to evaluate model tropospheric ozone and its effect on OLR simulated by a suite of chemistry-climate models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The ensemble mean of ACCMIP models show a persistent but modest tropospheric ozone low bias (5-20 ppb) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and modest high bias (5-10 ppb) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) relative to TES ozone for 2005-2010. These ozone biases have a significant impact on the OLR. Using TES instantaneous radiative kernels (IRK), we show that the ACCMIP ensemble mean tropospheric ozone low bias leads up to 120mW/ sq. m OLR high bias locally but zonally compensating errors reduce the global OLR high bias to 39+/- 41mW/ sq. m relative to TES data. We show that there is a correlation (Sq. R = 0.59) between the magnitude of the ACCMIP OLR bias and the deviation of the ACCMIP preindustrial to present day (1750-2010) ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the ensemble ozone RF mean. However, this correlation is driven primarily by models whose absolute OLR bias from tropospheric ozone exceeds 100mW/ sq. m. Removing these models leads to a mean ozone radiative forcing of 394+/- 42mW/ sq. m. The mean is about the same and the standard deviation is about 30% lower than an ensemble ozone RF of 384 +/- 60mW/ sq. m derived from 14 of the 16 ACCMIP models reported in a companion ACCMIP study. These results point towards a profitable direction of combining satellite observations and chemistry-climate model simulations to reduce uncertainty in ozone radiative forcing.

Description: In this paper we investigate the power spectrum of the unresolved 0.5-2 keV cosmic X-ray background (CXB) with deep Chandra 4-Msec (Ms) observations in the Chandra Deep Field South (CDFS). We measured a signal that, on scales 〉30 arcsec, is significantly higher than the shot noise and is increasing with angular scale. We interpreted this signal as the joint contribution of clustered undetected sources like active galactic nuclei (AGN), galaxies and the intergalactic medium (IGM). The power of unresolved cosmic source fluctuations accounts for approximately 12 per cent of the 0.5-2 keV extragalactic CXB. Overall, our modelling predicts that approximately 20 per cent of the unresolved CXB flux is produced by low-luminosity AGN, approximately 25 per cent by galaxies and approximately 55 per cent by the IGM. We do not find any direct evidence of the so-called 'warm hot intergalactic medium' (i.e. matter with 10(exp 5) less than T less than 10(exp 7) K and density contrast delta less than 1000), but we estimated that it could produce about 1/7 of the unresolved CXB. We placed an upper limit on the space density of postulated X-ray-emitting early black holes at z greater than 7.5 and compared it with supermassive black hole evolution models.

Description: The Optical Properties of Astronomical Silicates with Infrared Techniques program utilizes multiple instruments to provide spectral data over a wide range of temperatures and wavelengths. Experimental methods include Vector Network Analyzer and Fourier transform spectroscopy transmission, and reflection/scattering measurements. From this data, we can determine the optical parameters for the index of refraction, n, and the absorption coefficient, k. The analysis of the laboratory transmittance data for each sample type is based upon different mathematical models, which are applied to each data set according to their degree of coherence. Presented here are results from iron silicate dust grain analogs, in several sample preparations and at temperatures ranging from 5 to 300 K, across the infrared and millimeter portion of the spectrum (from 2.5 to 10,000/micron or 4000 to 1/cm).

Description: Delta Ori is the nearest massive, single-lined eclipsing binary (O9.5 II + B0.5III). As such it serves as a fundamental calibrator of the mass-radius-luminosity relation in the upper HR diagram. It is also the only eclipsing O-type binary system which is bright enough to be observable with the CHANDRA gratings in a reasonable exposure. Studies of resolved X-ray line complexes provide tracers of wind mass loss rate and clumpiness; occultation by the X-ray dark companion of the line emitting region can provide direct spatial information on the location of the X-ray emitting gas produced by shocks embedded in the wind of the primary star. We obtained phase-resolved spectra with Chandra in order to determine the level of phase-dependent vs. secular variability in the shocked wind. Along with the Chandra observations we obtained simultaneous photometry from space with the Canadian MOST satellite to help understand the relation between X-ray and photospheric variability.

Description: The Spitzer Extended Deep Survey (SEDS) is a very deep infrared survey within five well-known extragalactic science fields: the UKIDSS Ultra-Deep Survey, the Extended Chandra Deep Field South, COSMOS, the Hubble Deep Field North, and the Extended Groth Strip. SEDS covers a total area of 1.46 deg(exp 2) to a depth of 26 AB mag (3sigma) in both of the warm Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) bands at 3.6 and 4.5 micron. Because of its uniform depth of coverage in so many widely-separated fields, SEDS is subject to roughly 25% smaller errors due to cosmic variance than a single-field survey of the same size. SEDS was designed to detect and characterize galaxies from intermediate to high redshifts (z = 2-7) with a built-in means of assessing the impact of cosmic variance on the individual fields. Because the full SEDS depth was accumulated in at least three separate visits to each field, typically with six-month intervals between visits, SEDS also furnishes an opportunity to assess the infrared variability of faint objects. This paper describes the SEDS survey design, processing, and publicly-available data products. Deep IRAC counts for the more than 300,000 galaxies detected by SEDS are consistent with models based on known galaxy populations. Discrete IRAC sources contribute 5.6 +/- 1.0 and 4.4 +/- 0.8 nW / square m/sr at 3.6 and 4.5 micron to the diffuse cosmic infrared background (CIB). IRAC sources cannot contribute more than half of the total CIB flux estimated from DIRBE data. Barring an unexpected error in the DIRBE flux estimates, half the CIB flux must therefore come from a diffuse component.

Description: Five annual climate cycles (1998-2002) are simulated for continental Africa and adjacent oceans by a regional atmospheric model (RM3). RM3 horizontal grid spacing is 0.44deg at 28 vertical levels. Each of 2 simulation ensembles is driven by lateral boundary conditions from each of 2 alternative reanalysis data sets. One simulation downs cales National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis 2 (NCPR2) and the other the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA-I). NCPR2 data are archived at 2.5deg grid spacing, while a recent version of ERA-I provides data at 0.75deg spacing. ERA-I-forced simulations are recomrp. ended by the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Comparisons of the 2 sets of simulations with each other and with observational evidence assess the relative performance of each downscaling system. A third simulation also uses ERA-I forcing, but degraded to the same horizontal resolution as NCPR2. RM3-simulated pentad and monthly mean precipitation data are compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data, gridded at 0.5deg, and RM3-simulated circulation is compared to both reanalyses. Results suggest that each downscaling system provides advantages and disadvantages relative to the other. The RM3/NCPR2 achieves a more realistic northward advance of summer monsoon rains over West Africa, but RM3/ERA-I creates the more realistic monsoon circulation. Both systems recreate some features of JulySeptember 1999 minus 2002 precipitation differences. Degrading the resolution of ERA-I driving data unrealistically slows the monsoon circulation and considerably diminishes summer rainfall rates over West Africa. The high resolution of ERA-I data, therefore, contributes to the quality of the downscaling, but NCPR2laterai boundary conditions nevertheless produce better simulations of some features.

Description: Observations from the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program are used to evaluate the ability of the NASA GISS ModelE global climate model in reproducing observed interactions between aerosols and clouds. Included in the evaluation are comparisons of basic meteorology and aerosol properties, droplet activation, effective radius parameterizations, and surface-based evaluations of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). Differences between the simulated and observed ACI are generally large, but these differences may result partially from vertical distribution of aerosol in the model, rather than the representation of physical processes governing the interactions between aerosols and clouds. Compared to the current observations, the ModelE often features elevated droplet concentrations for a given aerosol concentration, indicating that the activation parameterizations used may be too aggressive. Additionally, parameterizations for effective radius commonly used in models were tested using ARM observations, and there was no clear superior parameterization for the cases reviewed here. This lack of consensus is demonstrated to result in potentially large, statistically significant differences to surface radiative budgets, should one parameterization be chosen over another.

Description: This paper analyzes the convective mass transport by sorting air parcels in terms of their equivalent potential temperature to determine an isentropic streamfunction. By averaging the vertical mass flux at a constant value of the equivalent potential temperature, one can compute an isentropic mass transport that filters out reversible oscillatory motions such as gravity waves. This novel approach emphasizes the fact that the vertical energy and entropy transports by convection are due to the combination of ascending air parcels with high energy and entropy and subsiding air parcels with lower energy and entropy. Such conditional averaging can be extended to other dynamic and thermodynamic variables such as vertical velocity, temperature, or relative humidity to obtain a comprehensive description of convective motions. It is also shown how this approach can be used to determine the mean diabatic tendencies from the three-dimensional dynamic and thermodynamic fields. A two-stream approximation that partitions the isentropic circulation into a mean updraft and a mean downdraft is also introduced. This offers a straightforward way to identify the mean properties of rising and subsiding air parcels. The results from the two-stream approximation are compared with two other definitions of the cloud mass flux. It is argued that the isentropic analysis offers a robust definition of the convective mass transport that is not tainted by the need to arbitrarily distinguish between convection and its environment, and that separates the irreversible convective overturning fromoscillations associated with gravity waves.

Description: Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

Description: The impact of Amazon Basin convection and cold fronts on the formation and maintenance of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) is studied using aqua-planet simulations with a general circulation model. In the model, a circular patch of warm sea-surface temperature (SST) is used to mimic the effect of the Amazon Basin on South American monsoon convection. The aqua-planet simulations were designed to study the effect of the strength and latitude of Amazon Basin convection on the formation of the SACZ. The simulations indicate that the strength of the SACZ increases as the Amazon convection intensifies and is moved away from the equator. Of the two controls studied here, the latitude of the Amazon convection exerts the strongest effect on the strength of the SACZ. An analysis of the synoptic-scale variability in the simulations shows the importance of frontal systems in the formation of the aqua-planet SACZ. Composite time series of frontal systems that occurred in the simulations show that a robust SACZ occurs when fronts penetrate into the subtropics and become stationary there as they cross eastward of the longitude of the Amazon Basin. Moisture convergence associated with these frontal systems produces rainfall not along the model SACZ region and along a large portion of the northern model Amazon Basin. Simulations in which the warm SST patch was too weak or too close to the equator did not produce frontal systems that extended into the tropics and became stationary, and did not form a SACZ. In the model, the SACZ forms as Amazon Basin convection strengthens and migrates far enough southward to allow frontal systems to penetrate into the tropics and stall over South America. This result is in agreement with observations that the SACZ tends to form after the onset of the monsoon season in the Amazon Basin.

Description: The present generation of general circulation models (GCM) use parameterized cumulus schemes and run at hydrostatic grid resolutions. To improve the representation of cloud-scale moist processes and landeatmosphere interactions, a global, Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) coupled to the Land Information System (LIS) has been developed at NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. The MMFeLIS has three components, a finite-volume (fv) GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System Ver. 4, GEOS-4), a 2D cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, GCE), and the LIS, representing the large-scale atmospheric circulation, cloud processes, and land surface processes, respectively. The non-hydrostatic GCE model replaces the single-column cumulus parameterization of fvGCM. The model grid is composed of an array of fvGCM gridcells each with a series of embedded GCE models. A horizontal coupling strategy, GCE4fvGCM4Coupler4LIS, offered significant computational efficiency, with the scalability and I/O capabilities of LIS permitting landeatmosphere interactions at cloud-scale. Global simulations of 2007e2008 and comparisons to observations and reanalysis products were conducted. Using two different versions of the same land surface model but the same initial conditions, divergence in regional, synoptic-scale surface pressure patterns emerged within two weeks. The sensitivity of largescale circulations to land surface model physics revealed significant functional value to using a scalable, multi-model land surface modeling system in global weather and climate prediction.

Description: The purpose of this project is to see whether ozone maxima measured by the DIfferential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) instrument in Huntsville, AL may be traced back to lightning events occurring 24 48 hours beforehand. The methodology is to start with lidar measurements of ozone from DIAL as well as ozonesonde measurements. The HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model is then used to determine the origin of these ozone maxima 2448 hours prior. Data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) are used to examine the presence/absence of lightning along the trajectory. This type of analysis suggests that lightningproduced NOx may be responsible for some of the ozone maxima over Huntsville.

Description: Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Description: Narrow Bipolar Event's (NBE) are compact (〈 2 km), powerful (〉 10 kW in VHF), and impulsive (approx 10 micro s) electrical discharges in thunderstorms, also known as compact intracloud discharges (CIDs). Can be either positive or negative polarity and have distinctive broadband waveform signatures sometimes confused for +CGs in the past by NLDN and other networks. NBEs are related to lightning but are likely optically "dark". As revealed by VHF sensors (both satellite and ground): (1) The most powerful lightning-related VHF sources observed (2) Tend to occur at the beginning of intracloud discharges (3) Difficult to estimate altitude properly due to receiver saturation.

Description: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Software Systems Support Office (SSSO) is participating in a multi-agency study of the impact of assimilating Doppler wind lidar observations on numerical weather prediction. Funded by NASA's Earth Science Technology Office, SSSO has worked with Simpson Weather Associates to produce time series of synthetic lidar observations mimicking the OAWL and WISSCR lidar instruments deployed on the International Space Station. In addition, SSSO has worked to assimilate a portion of these observations those drawn from the NASA fvGCM Nature Run into the NASA GEOS-DAS global weather prediction system in a series of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). These OSSEs will complement parallel OSSEs prepared by the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation and by NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. In this talk, we will describe our procedure and provide available OSSE results.

Description: For decades, deep cumulus convection was viewed as consisting partly of undilute plumes that do not interact with their surrounding environment in order to explain their observed tendency to reach or penetrate the tropical tropopause. This behavior was built into all cumulus parameterizations used in terrestrial global climate and numerical weather prediction models, and it still persists in some models today. In the past decade, though, some embarrassing failures of global models have come to light, notably their tendency to rain over land near noon rather than in late afternoon or evening as observed, and the absence in the models of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the major source of intraseasonal (30-90 day) precipitation variability in the Indian Ocean, West Pacific, and surrounding continental regions. In the past decade it has become clear that an important missing component of parameterizations is strong turbulent entrainment of drier environmental air into cumulus updrafts, which reduces the buoyancy of the updrafts and thus limits their vertical development. Tropospheric humidity thus serves as a throttle on convective penetration to high altitudes and delays the convective response to large-scale destabilizing influences in the environment.

Description: The response of cloud simulations to turbulence parameterizations is studied systematically using the GISS general circulation model (GCM) E2 employed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).Without the turbulence parameterization, the relative humidity (RH) and the low cloud cover peak unrealistically close to the surface; with the dry convection or with only the local turbulence parameterization, these two quantities improve their vertical structures, but the vertical transport of water vapor is still weak in the planetary boundary layers (PBLs); with both local and nonlocal turbulence parameterizations, the RH and low cloud cover have better vertical structures in all latitudes due to more significant vertical transport of water vapor in the PBL. The study also compares the cloud and radiation climatologies obtained from an experiment using a newer version of turbulence parameterization being developed at GISS with those obtained from the AR5 version. This newer scheme differs from the AR5 version in computing nonlocal transports, turbulent length scale, and PBL height and shows significant improvements in cloud and radiation simulations, especially over the subtropical eastern oceans and the southern oceans. The diagnosed PBL heights appear to correlate well with the low cloud distribution over oceans. This suggests that a cloud-producing scheme needs to be constructed in a framework that also takes the turbulence into consideration.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Spectral band differences between sensors can complicate the process of intercalibration of a visible sensor against a reference sensor. This can be best addressed by using a hyperspectral reference sensor whenever possible because they can be used to accurately mitigate the band differences. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using operational Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) large-footprint hyperspectral radiances to calibrate geostationary Earth-observing (GEO) sensors. Near simultaneous nadir overpass measurements were used to compare the temporal calibration of SCIAMACHY with Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer band radiances, which were found to be consistent to within 0.44% over seven years. An operational SCIAMACHY/GEO ray-matching technique was presented, along with enhancements to improve radiance pair sampling. These enhancements did not bias the underlying intercalibration and provided enough sampling to allow up to monthly monitoring of the GEO sensor degradation. The results of the SCIAMACHY/GEO intercalibration were compared with other operational four-year Meteosat-9 0.65-m calibration coefficients and were found to be within 1% of the gain, and more importantly, it had one of the lowest temporal standard errors of all the methods. This is more than likely that the GEO spectral response function could be directly applied to the SCIAMACHY radiances, whereas the other operational methods inferred a spectral correction factor. This method allows the validation of the spectral corrections required by other methods.

Description: The GNIRS instrument on the Gemini 8-m telescope observed comet 103P/Hartley on 2010- Dec-04UT, a month after the EPOXI Mission encounter, and detected the 3.3 and 3.4 um bands in emission. The 3.3/3.4 ratio and the broad band widths are consistent with experiments of heated (approximately 600 K) aliphatic carbon (-CH3, -CH2) thin films. For the 3.4 micron band to be in emission, the aliphatic bonds must be attached to a carrier possessing the strongly UV-absorbing C=C aromatic rings, and these rings have to be less than 50-100 carbon atoms (4-6 Angstrom) for attached -CH bonds to also generate a 3.3 micron-band in emission. Slightly larger (10) Very Small Grains (VSGs) can absorb single UV photons comparable to or exceeding their heat capacity, thermally fluctuate and release IR photon(s). The 3.3 micron and 3.4 micron bands observed by GNIRS suggest that organic macromolecules/ nano-grains with both aliphatic and aromatic bonds are fluorescing/thermally fluctuating in the coma. Aliphatic and aromatic materials have been seen in Stardust samples and the primitive carbonaceous chondrite 'Tagish Lake'. The larger the ratio of the -CH2/-CH3 components of the aliphatic 3.4 micron band, the more 'primitive' the organic material. In a Stardust organic globule, some aliphatic bonds were transformed into aromatic bonds during the low dosage of Transmission Electron Microscope imaging. Conversely, lab experiments show irradiation of ices containing small PAHs generates aliphatic organics. Photo-processing of ices also likely forms the ubiquitous aliphatic coatings that appear on the surfaces of all silicate subgrains constituting nine cometary interplanetary dust particles. The aliphatic coatings, dominated by -CH2, likely were important in sticking the aggregates together, and existed prior to incorporation of dust aggregates into comet nuclei. These comet aliphatics may be some of the sought-after precursors to the more robust and complex organics studied as Insoluble Organic Matter in carbonaceous chondrites. Aliphatic coatings on submicron grains, however, will not be observable in absorption because they are fairly transparent, nor do the aliphatic carbonaceous coatings produce the 3.4 micron emission band because the particles they are attached to are too large (too many vibration modes). We must probe the nano-sized organic carriers that undergo substantive thermal fluctuations in cometary comae and emit at 3.3 3.4 micron. Observations of the 3.3 and 3.4 micron emission features contribute to characterizing the evolution of organics prior to their incorporation into cometary nuclei as well as their rapid evolution in cometary comae, which in turn contributes to deepening our understanding of the evolution of organics on the surfaces of asteroids and outer icy bodies in our solar system. Studying organics in comets contributes to understanding the formation and evolution pathways of ISM organics through to the formation of the robust insoluble organic matter in meteorites. A'Hearn, M.F., et al. 2011, Science, 332, 1396; Bockelee-Morvan, D. et al. 1995, Icarus, 116, 18; De Gregorio, B.T., et al. 2010, GCA, 74, 4454; Dello Russo, N., et al. 2011, ApJ, 734, L8; Dischler et al. 1983, Solid State Communications, 48, 105; Flynn, G., et al. 2010a, LPSC, 41, #1079; Flynn, G., et al. 2010b, COSPAR, 38, F31-0012-10; Flynn, G., Wirick, S. 2011, LPSC, 42, #1856; Fomenkova, et al. 1994, GCA 58, 4503; Matrajt, G., et al. 2013, ApJ, 765, 145; Schutte, et al. 1993, ApJ, 415, 397; Wooden, D.H. et al. 2011, EPSC-DPS, 1557; Wooden, D.H. et al. 2013, submitted.

Description: In late October 1995, I found a remarkable message on my answering machine from Ed Weiler, then the Program Scientist for the Hubble Space Telescope. Would I work on the next generation space telescope, the successor to the beautiful HST? It took me mere moments to work out the answer: Of course! At the time, my work on the COsmic Background Explorer (COBE) was finished, I was writing a book about it (The Very First Light, with John Boslough), and I thought NASA might never do anything nearly as spectacular again. Wow, was I happy to be surprised by that call!

Description: Future development trajectories for imaging x-ray spectrometers based on microcalorimeters. Since their invention 30 years ago, the capability of X-ray microcalorimeters has increased steadily, with continual improvements in energy resolution, speed, and array size. Arrays of up to 1024 pixels have been produced, and resolution better than 1 eV at 1.5 keV has been achieved. These detectors can be optimized for the highest priority science, such as designing for the highest resolving power at low energies at the expense of dynamic range, or the greatest focal-plane coverage at the expense of speed. Three types of X-ray microcalorimeters presently dominate the field, each characterized by the thermometer technology. The first two types use temperature-sensitive resistors: semiconductors in the metal-insulator transition and superconductors operated in the superconducting-normal transition. The third type uses a magnetically coupled thermometer, and is at an earlier stage of development than the other two. The Soft X-ray Spectrometer (SXS) on Astro-H, expected to launch in 2015, will use an array of silicon thermistors with HgTe X-ray absorbers that will operate at 50 mK. Both the semiconductor and superconductor calorimeters have been implemented in small arrays. Kilopixel arrays of the superconducting calorimeters are being produced, and much larger arrays may require the non-dissipative advantage of magnetically coupled thermometers. I will project the development trajectories of these detectors and their read-out technologies and assess what their capabilities and limitations will be 10 - 20 years from now.

Description: We report results from long-term (approx.1240 days) X-ray (0.3-8.0 keV) monitoring of the ultraluminous X-ray source NGC 5408 X-1 with the Swift/X-Ray Telescope. Here we expand on earlier work by Strohmayer (2009) who used only a part of the present data set. Our primary results are: (1) the discovery of sharp, quasi-periodic, energy-independent dips in the X-ray intensity that recur on average every 243 days, (2) the detection of an energy dependent (variability amplitude decreases with increasing energy), quasi-sinusoidal X-ray modulation with a period of 112.6 +/- 4 days, the amplitude of which weakens during the second half of the light curve, and (3) spectral evidence for an increase in photoelectric absorption during the last continuous segment of the data. We interpret the X-ray modulations within the context of binary motion in analogy to that seen in high-inclination accreting X-ray binaries. If correct, this implies that NGC 5408 X-1 is in a binary with an orbital period of 243 +/- 23 days, in contrast to the 115.5 day quasi-sinusoidal period previously reported by Strohmayer (2009). We discuss the overall X-ray modulation within the framework of accretion via Roche-lobe overflow of the donor star. In addition, if the X-ray modulation is caused by vertically structured obscuring material in the accretion disk, this would imply a high value for the inclination of the orbit. A comparison with estimates from accreting X-ray binaries suggests an inclination 〉 or approx.70deg. We note that, in principle, a precessing accretion disk could also produce the observed X-ray modulations.

Description: State-of-the-art spectral analysis of hot stars by means of non-LTE model-atmosphere techniques has arrived at a high level of sophistication. The analysis of high-resolution and high-S/N spectra, however, is strongly restricted by the lack of reliable atomic data for highly ionized species from intermediate-mass metals to trans-iron elements. Especially data for the latter has only been sparsely calculated. Many of their lines are identified in spectra of extremely hot, hydrogen-deficient post-AGB stars. A reliable determination of their abundances establishes crucial constraints for AGB nucleosynthesis simulations and, thus, for stellar evolutionary theory. Aims. In a previous analysis of the UV spectrum of RE 0503-289, spectral lines of highly ionized Ga, Ge, As, Se, Kr, Mo, Sn, Te, I, and Xe were identified. Individual abundance determinations are hampered by the lack of reliable oscillator strengths. Most of these identified lines stem from Ge V. In addition, we identified Ge VI lines for the first time. We calculated Ge V and Ge VI oscillator strengths in order to reproduce the observed spectrum. Methods. We newly calculated Ge V and Ge VI oscillator strengths to consider their radiative and collisional bound-bound transitions in detail in our non-LTE stellar-atmosphere models for the analysis of the Ge IV-VI spectrum exhibited in high-resolution and high-S/N FUV (FUSE) and UV (ORFEUS/BEFS, IUE) observations of RE 0503-289. Results. In the UV spectrum of RE 0503-289, we identify four Ge IV, 37 Ge V, and seven Ge VI lines. Most of these lines are identified for the first time in any star. We can reproduce almost all Ge IV, GeV, and Ge VI lines in the observed spectrum of RE 0503-289 (T(sub eff) = 70 kK, log g = 7.5) at log Ge = -3.8 +/- 0.3 (mass fraction, about 650 times solar). The Ge IV/V/VI ionization equilibrium, that is a very sensitive T(sub eff) indicator, is reproduced well. Conclusions. Reliable measurements and calculations of atomic data are a prerequisite for stellar-atmosphere modeling. Our oscillator-strength calculations have allowed, for the first time, Ge V and Ge VI lines to be successfully reproduced in a white dwarf s (RE 0503-289) spectrum and to determine its photospheric Ge abundance.

Description: Light scalar fields called moduli arise from a variety of different models involving supersymmetry and/or string theory; thus their existence is a generic prediction of leading theories for physics beyond the standard model. They also present a formidable, long-standing problem for cosmology. We argue that an anthropic solution to the moduli problem exists in the case of small moduli masses and that it automatically leads to dark matter in the form of moduli. The recent discovery of the 125 GeV Higgs boson implies a lower bound on the moduli mass of about a keV. This form of dark matter is consistent with the observed properties of structure formation, and it is amenable to detection with the help of x-ray telescopes. We present the results of a search for such dark matter particles using spectra extracted from the first deep x-ray observations of the Draco and Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxies, which are darkmatter- dominated systems with extreme mass-to-light ratios and low intrinsic backgrounds. No emission line is positively detected, and we set new constraints on the relevant new physics.

Description: No abstract available

Description: We present a census of the disc population for UKIDSS selected brown dwarfs in the 5-10 Myr old Upper Scorpius OB association. For 116 objects originally identified in UKIDSS, the majority of them not studied in previous publications, we obtain photometry from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer data base. The resulting colour magnitude and colour colour plots clearly show two separate populations of objects, interpreted as brown dwarfs with discs (class II) and without discs (class III). We identify 27 class II brown dwarfs, 14 of them not previously known. This disc fraction (27 out of 116, or 23%) among brown dwarfs was found to be similar to results for K/M stars in Upper Scorpius, suggesting that the lifetimes of discs are independent of the mass of the central object for low-mass stars and brown dwarfs. 5 out of 27 discs (19 per cent) lack excess at 3.4 and 4.6 microns and are potential transition discs (i.e. are in transition from class II to class III). The transition disc fraction is comparable to low-mass stars.We estimate that the time-scale for a typical transition from class II to class III is less than 0.4 Myr for brown dwarfs. These results suggest that the evolution of brown dwarf discs mirrors the behaviour of discs around low-mass stars, with disc lifetimes of the order of 5 10 Myr and a disc clearing time-scale significantly shorter than 1 Myr.

Description: We report on the present stage of SN 1987A as observed by the Chandra X-Ray Observatory. We reanalyze published Chandra observations and add three more epochs of Chandra data to get a consistent picture of the evolution of the X-ray fluxes in several energy bands. We discuss the implications of several calibration issues for Chandra data. Using the most recent Chandra calibration files, we find that the 0.5-2.0 keV band fluxes of SN 1987A have increased by approximately 6 x 10(exp-13) erg s(exp-1)cm(exp-2) per year since 2009. This is in contrast with our previous result that the 0.5-2.0 keV light curve showed a sudden flattening in 2009. Based on our new analysis, we conclude that the forward shock is still in full interaction with the equatorial ring.

Description: Following the red giant branch phase and the subsequent core He-burning phase, the low- to intermediate-mass stars (0.8〈M/M solar mass 〈8) begin to ascend the asymptotic giant branch (AGB). Pulsations levitate material from the stellar surface and provide density enhancements and shocks, which can encourage dust formation and re-processing. The dust composition depends on the atmospheric chemistry (abundance of carbon relative to oxygen), which is altered by dredging up newly formed carbon to the surface of the star. I will briefly review the current status of models that include AGB mass loss and relate them to recent observations of AGB stars from the Surveying the Agents of Galaxy Evolution (SAGE) Spitzer surveys of the Small and Large Magellanic Clouds, including measures of the total dust input to the interstellar medium from AGB stars.

Description: Observations have shown that the mass of nitrogen dioxide decreased at both southern and northern midlatitudes in the year following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, indicating that the volcanic aerosol had enhanced nitrogen dioxide depletion via heterogeneous chemistry. In contrast, the observed ozone response showed a northern midlatitude decrease and a small southern midlatitude increase. Previous simulations that included an enhancement of heterogeneous chemistry by the volcanic aerosol but no other effect of this aerosol produce ozone decreases in both hemispheres, contrary to observations. The authors simulations show that the heating due to the volcanic aerosol enhanced both the tropical upwelling and Southern Hemisphere extratropical downwelling. This enhanced extratropical downwelling, combined with the time of the eruption relative to the phase of the Brewer Dobson circulation, increased Southern Hemisphere ozone via advection, counteracting the ozone depletion due to heterogeneous chemistry on the Pinatubo aerosol.

Description: What is the LNOM? The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) [Koshak et al., 2009, 2010, 2011; Koshak and Peterson 2011, 2013] analyzes VHF Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark) (NLDN) data to estimate the lightning nitrogen oxides (LNOx) produced by individual flashes. Figure 1 provides an overview of LNOM functionality. Benefits of LNOM: (1) Does away with unrealistic "vertical stick" lightning channel models for estimating LNOx; (2) Uses ground-based VHF data that maps out the true channel in space and time to 〈 100 m accuracy; (3) Therefore, true channel segment height (ambient air density) is used to compute LNOx; (4) True channel length is used! (typically tens of kilometers since channel has many branches and "wiggles"); (5) Distinction between ground and cloud flashes are made; (6) For ground flashes, actual peak current from NLDN used to compute NOx from lightning return stroke; (7) NOx computed for several other lightning discharge processes (based on Cooray et al., 2009 theory): (a) Hot core of stepped leaders and dart leaders, (b) Corona sheath of stepped leader, (c) K-change, (d) Continuing Currents, and (e) M-components; and (8) LNOM statistics (see later) can be used to parameterize LNOx production for regional air quality models (like CMAQ), and for global chemical transport models (like GEOS-Chem).

Description: No abstract available

Description: Chamber A is the largest thermal vacuum chamber at the Johnson Space Center and is one of the largest space environment chambers in the world. The chamber is 19.8 m (65 ft.) in diameter and 36.6 m (120 ft.) tall and is equipped with cryogenic liquid nitrogen panels (shrouds) and gaseous helium shrouds to create a simulated space environment. It was originally designed and built in the mid 1960 s to test the Apollo Command and Service Module and several manned tests were conducted on that spacecraft, contributing to the success of the program. The chamber has been used since that time to test spacecraft active thermal control systems, Shuttle DTO, DOD, and ESA hardware in simulated Low Earth Orbit (LEO) conditions. NASA is now moving from LEO towards exploration of locations with environments approaching those of deep space. Therefore, Chamber A has undergone major modifications to enable it to simulate these deeper space environments. Environmental requirements were driven, and modifications were funded by the James Webb Space Telescope program, and this telescope, which will orbit Solar/Earth L2, will be the first test article to benefit from the chamber s new capabilities. To accommodate JWST, the Chamber A high vacuum system has been modernized, additional LN2 shrouds have been installed, the liquid nitrogen system has been modified to minimize dependency on electrical power and increase its reliability, a new helium shroud/refrigeration system has been installed to create a colder more stable and uniform heat sink, and the controls have been updated to increase the level of automation and improve operator interfaces. Testing of these major modifications was conducted in August of 2012 and this initial test was very successful, with all major systems exceeding their performance requirements. This paper will outline the changes in overall environmental requirements, discuss the technical design data that was used in the decisions leading to the extensive modifications, and describe the new capabilities of the chamber.

Description: Tall structures play and important role in development of winter time lightning flashes.To what extent still needs to be assessed. Tower initiated flashes typically occur as banded structures pass near/overhead. Hi resolution RHI s from polarimetric radar show that the lightning has a tendency to propagate through layered structures within these snowstorms.

Description: There is a need to monitor the on-orbit performance of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R (GOES-R) for changes in instrument calibration that will affect GLM's lightning detection efficiency. GLM has no onboard calibration so GLM background radiance observations (available every 2.5 min) of Deep Convective Clouds (DCCs) are investigated as invariant targets to monitor GLM performance. Observations from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) onboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite are used as proxy datasets for GLM and ABI 11 m measurements.

Description: Deep Chandra ACIS observations of the region around the putative pulsar, CXOU J061705.3+222117, in the supernova remnant IC443 reveal, for the first time, a ring-like morphology surrounding the pulsar and a jet-like structure oriented roughly north-south across the ring and through the pulsar location. The observations further confirm that (1) the spectrum and flux of the central object are consistent with a rotation-powered pulsar interpretation, (2) the non-thermal surrounding nebula is likely powered by the pulsar wind, and (3) the thermal-dominated spectrum at greater distances is consistent with emission from the supernova remnant. The cometary shape of the nebula, suggesting motion towards the southwest (or, equivalently, flow of ambient medium to the northeast), appears to be subsonic; there is no evidence for a strong bow shock, and the circular ring is not distorted by motion through the ambient medium.

Description: The preliminary design of the new space gamma-ray telescope GAMMA-400 for the energy range 100 MeV-3 TeV is presented. The angular resolution of the instrument, 1-2 deg at E(gamma) approximately 100 MeV and approximately 0.01 at E(gamma) greater than 100 GeV, its energy resolution is approximately 1% at E(gamma) greater than 100 GeV, and the proton rejection factor is approximately 10(exp 6) are optimized to address a broad range of science topics, such as search for signatures of dark matter, studies of Galactic and extragalactic gamma-ray sources, Galactic and extragalactic diffuse emission, gamma-ray bursts, as well as high-precision measurements of spectra of cosmic-ray electrons, positrons, and nuclei.

Description: We present the first near-IR scattered light detection of the transitional disk associated with the Herbig Ae star MWC 758 using data obtained as part of the Strategic Exploration of Exoplanets and Disks with Subaru, and 1.1 micrometer Hubble Space Telescope/NICMOS data. While submillimeter studies suggested there is a dust-depleted cavity with r = 0".35, we find scattered light as close as 0".1 (20-28 AU) from the star, with no visible cavity at H, K', or Ks . We find two small-scaled spiral structures that asymmetrically shadow the outer disk. We model one of the spirals using spiral density wave theory, and derive a disk aspect ratio of h approximately 0.18, indicating a dynamically warm disk. If the spiral pattern is excited by a perturber, we estimate its mass to be 5(exp +3)(sub -4) M(sub J), in the range where planet filtration models predict accretion continuing onto the star. Using a combination of non-redundant aperture masking data at L' and angular differential imaging with Locally Optimized Combination of Images at K' and Ks , we exclude stellar or massive brown dwarf companions within 300 mas of the Herbig Ae star, and all but planetary mass companions exterior to 0".5. We reach 5 sigma contrasts limiting companions to planetary masses, 3-4 M(sub J) at 1".0 and 2 M(sub J) at 1".55, using the COND models. Collectively, these data strengthen the case for MWC 758 already being a young planetary system.

Description: The Origins Spectral Interpretation Resource Identification Security Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission is a NASA New Frontiers mission launching in 2016 to rendezvous with the near-Earth asteroid (101955) 1999 RQ36 in late 2018. After several months in formation with and orbit about the asteroid, OSIRIS-REx will fly a Touch-And-Go (TAG) trajectory to the asteroid s surface to obtain a regolith sample. This paper describes the mission design of the TAG sequence and the propulsive maneuvers required to achieve the trajectory. This paper also shows preliminary results of orbit covariance analysis and Monte-Carlo analysis that demonstrate the ability to arrive at a targeted location on the surface of RQ36 within a 25 meter radius with 98.3% confidence.

Description: In this paper we present a detailed overview of the MDL study results and subsequent advances in the design of GNC algorithms for accurate terminal guidance during hypervelocity NEO intercept. The MDL study produced a conceptual con guration of the two-body HAIV and its subsystems; a mission scenario and trajectory design for a notional flight validation mission to a selected candidate target NEO; GNC results regarding the ability of the HAIV to reliably intercept small (50 m) NEOs at hypervelocity (typically greater than 10 km/s); candidate launch vehicle selection; a notional operations concept and cost estimate for the flight validation mission; and a list of topics to address during the remainder of our NIAC Phase II study.

Description: A primary objective of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project is to adapt and infuse NASA's solar and meteorological data into the energy, agricultural, and architectural industries. Improvements are continuously incorporated when higher resolution and longer-term data inputs become available. Climatological data previously provided via POWER web applications were three-hourly and 1x1 degree latitude/longitude. The NASA Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data set provides higher resolution data products (hourly and 1/2x1/2 degree) covering the entire globe. Currently POWER solar and meteorological data are available for more than 30 years on hourly (meteorological only), daily, monthly and annual time scales. These data may be useful to several renewable energy sectors: solar and wind power generation, agricultural crop modeling, and sustainable buildings. A recent focus has been working with ASHRAE to assess complementing weather station data with MERRA data. ASHRAE building design parameters being investigated include heating/cooling degree days and climate zones.