ALBERT

Notes: Abstract The maximum product of spacings (MPS) method is discussed from the standpoint of information theory. MPS parameter and quantile estimates for the generalized Pareto distribution and the two parameter log-logistic distribution are compared with the maximum likelihood(ML) and probability weighted moment (PWM) estimates.

Notes: Abstract A diffusion approximation for a network of continuous time reservoirs with power law release rules is examined. Under a mild assumption on the inflow processes, we show that for physically reasonable values of the power law constants, the system of processes converges to a multi-dimensional Gaussian diffusion process. We also illustrate how the limiting Gaussian process may be used to compute approximations to the original system of reservoirs. In addition, we study the quality of our approximations by comparing them to results obtained by simulations of the original watershed model. The simulations offer support for the use of the approximation developed here.

Notes: Abstract A numerical experiment of flow in variably saturated porous media was performed in order to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of the groundwater recharge at the phreatic surface for a shallow aquifer as a function of the input rainfall process and soil heterogeneity. The study focused on the groundwater recharge which resulted from the percolation of the excess rainfall for a 90-days period of an actual precipitation record. Groundwater recharge was defined as the water flux across the moving phreatic surface. The observed spatial non-uniformity of the groundwater recharge was caused by soil heterogeneity and is particularly pronounced during the stage of recharge peak (substantial percolation stage). During that stage the recharge is associated with preferential flow paths defined as soil zones of locally higher hydraulic conductivity. For the periods of low percolation intensity the groundwater recharge was exhibiting more uniform spatial characteristics. The temporal distribution of the recharge was found to be a function of the frequency and intensity of the rainfall events. Application of sampling design demonstrates the joint influence of the spatial and temporal recharge variability on the cost-effective monitoring of groundwater potentiometric surfaces.

Notes: Abstract It is shown that runs of low-flow annual streamflow in a coastal semiarid basin of Central California can be adequately modelled by renewal theory. For example, runs of below-median annual streamflows are shown to follow a geometric distribution. The elapsed time between runs of below-median streamflow are geometrically distributed also. The sum of these two independently distributed geometric time variables defines the renewal time elapsing between the initiation of a low-flow run and the next one. The probability distribution of the renewal time is then derived from first principles, ultimately leading to the distribution of the number of low-flow runs in a specified time period, the expected number of low-flow runs, the risk of drought, and other important probabilistic indicators of low-flow. The authors argue that if one identifies drought threat with the occurrence of multiyear low-flow runs, as it is done by water supply managers in the study area, then our renewal model provides a number of interesting results concerning drought threat in areas historically subject to inclement, dry, climate. A 430-year long annual streamflow time series reconstructed by tree-ring analysis serves as the basis for testing our renewal model of low-flow sequences.

Notes: Abstract The precipitation amounts on wet days at De Bilt (the Netherlands) are linked to temperature and surface air pressure through advanced regression techniques. Temperature is chosen as a covariate to use the model for generating synthetic time series of daily precipitation in a CO2 induced warmer climate. The precipitation-temperature dependence can partly be ascribed to the phenomenon that warmer air can contain more moisture. Spline functions are introduced to reproduce the non-monotonous change of the mean daily precipitation amount with temperature. Because the model is non-linear and the variance of the errors depends on the expected response, an iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is needed to estimate the regression coefficients. A representative rainfall sequence for the situation of a systematic temperature rise is obtained by multiplying the precipitation amounts in the observed record with a temperature dependent factor based on a fitted regression model. For a temperature change of 3°C (reasonable guess for a doubled CO2 climate according to the present-day general circulation models) this results in an increase in the annual average amount of 9% (20% in winter and 4% in summer). An extended model with both temperature and surface air pressure is presented which makes it possible to study the additional effects of a potential systematic change in surface air pressure on precipitation.

Notes: Abstract This paper is concerned with developing computational methods and approximations for maximum likelihood estimation and minimum mean square error smoothing of irregularly observed two-dimensional stationary spatial processes. The approximations are based on various Fourier expansions of the covariance function of the spatial process, expressed in terms of the inverse discrete Fourier transform of the spectral density function of the underlying spatial process. We assume that the underlying spatial process is governed by elliptic stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE's) driven by a Gaussian white noise process. SPDE's have often been used to model the underlying physical phenomenon and the elliptic SPDE's are generally associated with steady-state problems. A central problem in estimation of underlying model parameters is to identify the covariance function of the process. The cumbersome exact analytical calculation of the covariance function by inverting the spectral density function of the process, has commonly been used in the literature. The present work develops various Fourier approximations for the covariance function of the underlying process which are in easily computable form and allow easy application of Newton-type algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. This work also develops an iterative search algorithm which combines the Gauss-Newton algorithm and a type of generalized expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, namely expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm, for maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters. We analyze the accuracy of the covariance function approximations for the spatial autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models analyzed in Vecchia (1988) and illustrate the performance of our iterative search algorithm in obtaining the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters on simulated and actual data.

Notes: Abstract Indicator cokriging (Journel 1983) is examined as a tool for real-time estimation of rainfall from rain gage measurements. The approach proposed in this work obviates real-time estimation of real-time statistics of rainfall by using ensemble or climatological statistics exclusively, and reduces computational requirements attendant to indicator cokriging by employing only a few auxiliary cutoffs in estimation of conditional probabilities. Due to unavailability of suitable rain gage measurements, hourly radar rain fall data were used for both indicator covariance estimation and a comparative evaluation. Preliminary results suggest that the indicator cokriging approach is clearly superior to its ordinary kriging counterpart, whereas the indicator kriging approach is not. The improvement is most significant in estimation of light rainfall, but drops off significantly for heavy rainfall. The lack of predictability in spatial estimation of heavy rainfall is borne out in the integral scale of indicator correlation: peaking to its maximum for cutoffs near the median, indicator correlation scale becomes increasingly smaller for larger cutoffs of rainfall depth. A derived-distribution analysis, based on the assumption that radar rainfall is a linear sum of ground-truth and a random error, suggests that, at low cutoffs, indicator correlation scale of ground-truth can significantly differ from that of radar rainfall, and points toward inclusion of rainfall intermittency, for example, within the framework proposed in this work.

Notes: Abstract The log-Gumbel distribution is one of the extreme value distributions which has been widely used in flood frequency analysis. This distribution has been examined in this paper regarding quantile estimation and confidence intervals of quantiles. Specific estimation algorithms based on the methods of moments (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM) and maximum likelihood (ML) are presented. The applicability of the estimation procedures and comparison among the methods have been illustrated based on an application example considering the flood data of the St. Mary's River.

Notes: Abstract A new formulation is presented for the analysis of reservoir systems synthesizing concepts from the traditional stochastic theory of reservoir storage, moments analysis and reliability programming. The analysis is based on the development of the first and second moments for the stochastic storage state variable. These expressions include terms for the failure probabilities (probabilities of spill or deficit) and consider the storage bounds explicitly. Using this analysis, expected values of the storage state, variances of storage, optimal release policies and failure probabilities — useful information in the context of reservoir operations and design, can be obtained from a nonlinear programming solution. The solutions developed from studies of single reservoir operations on both an annual and monthly basis, compare favorably with those obtained from simulation. The presentation herein is directed to both traditional reservoir storage theorists who are interested in the design of a reservoir and modern reservoir analysts who are interested in the long term operation of reservoirs.

Notes: Abstract A technique has been developed for predicting the irregular advance pattern often observed as water spreads on the surface of the ground. The technique is a combination of stochastic sketching, potential theory, probability theory, and a mass balance equation in the form of an advance equation. The technique can be used on flat as well as sloping terrain and addresses any form of obstructions or constraints to the flow of the water. The stochastic sketching portion of the technique uses cellular automata with transition probability movement rules to sketch the dynamics of small volume water elements in the defined environment. Randomly selected small volume flow path segments are computed and plotted. The envelope of these segments defines the wetted area and the advance front. Several examples are presented showing the patterns produced for various situations.

Notes: Abstract The first paper (Chang et al., 1995b) of this two-part series described the stochastic analysis using spectral/perturbation approach to analyze steady state two-phase (water and oil) flow in a, liquid-unsaturated, three fluid-phase porous medium. In this paper, the results between the numerical simulations and closed-form expressions obtained using the perturbation approach are compared. We present the solution to the one-dimensional, steady-state oil and water flow equations. The stochastic input processes are the spatially correlated logk where k is the intrinsic permeability and the soil retention parameter, α. These solutions are subsequently used in the numerical simulations to estimate the statistical properties of the key output processes. The comparison between the results of the perturbation analysis and numerical simulations showed a good agreement between the two methods over a wide range of logk variability with three different combinations of input stochastic processes of logk and soil parameter α. The results clearly demonstrated the importance of considering the spatial variability of key subsurface properties under a variety of physical scenarios. The variability of both capillary pressure and saturation is affected by the type of input stochastic process used to represent the spatial variability. The results also demonstrated the applicability of perturbation theory in predicting the system variability and defining effective fluid properties through the ergodic assumption.

Notes: Abstract A review of literature reveals the inadequacy of Intervention analysis and spectrum based methods to adequately quantify changes in hydrologic times series. A Bayesian method is used to investigate the statistical significance of observed changes in hydrologic times series and the results are reported herein. The Bayesian method is superior to the previous methods.

Notes: Abstract This paper describes a new method for generating spatially-correlated random fields. Such fields are often encountered in hydrology and hydrogeology and in the earth sciences. The method is based on two observations: (i) spatially distributed attributes usually display a stationary correlation structure, and (ii) the screening effect of measurements leads to the sufficiency of a small search neighborhood when it comes to projecting measurements and data in space. The algorithm which was developed based on these principles is called HYDRO_GEN, and its features and properties are discussed in depth. HYDRO_GEN is found to be accurate and extremely fast. It is also versatile: it can simulate fields of different nature, starting from weakly stationary fields with a prescribed covariance and ending with fractal fields. The simulated fields can display statistical isotropy or anisotropy.

Notes: Abstract This work presents analytical expressions for the best estimate, conditional covariance function, and conditional realizations of a function from sparse observations. In contrast to the prevalent approach in kriging where the best estimates at every point are determined from the solution of a system of linear equations, the best-estimate function can be represented analytically in terms of basis functions, whose number depends on the observations. This approach is computationally superior when graphing a function estimate and is also valuable in understanding what the solution should look like. For example, one can immediately see that all “singularities” in the best-estimate function are at observation points.

Notes: Abstract A formal statistical discussion of the origins of the random walk and its relation to the classic advection-dispersion equation is given. At issue is the common use of Gaussian distributed steps in producing the desired dispersive effects. Shown are alternative solutions to the basic Langevin equation describing mass displacements based on non-Gaussian, white increments. In particular, the results reveal that uniform or symmetric-triangular steps can be employed without loss of generality in accuracy of the solution (over all Peclet numbers) and may yield significant savings in the computational generation of the random deviates required in the Monte Carlo procedures of the random walk method.

Notes: Abstract In this paper, we investigate the role of input-output data sources in regional econometric input-output models. While there has been a great deal of experimentation focused on the accuracy of alternative methods for estimating regional inputoutput coefficients, little attention has been directed to the role of accuracy when the input-output system is nested within a broader accounting framework. The issues of accuracy were considered in two contexts, forecasting and impact analysis focusing on a model developed for the Chicago region. We experimented with three input-output data sources: observed regional data, national input-output, and randomly generated inputoutput coefficients. The effects of different sources of input-output data on regional econometric input-output models revealed that there are significant differences in results obtained in both forecast and impact analyses. The adjustment processes inherent in the econometric input-output system did not mask the differences imbedded in input-output tables derived from different data sources. Since applications of these types of models involve both impact and forecasting exercises, there should be strong motivation for basing the syste on the most accurate set of input-output accounts.

Notes: Abstract Japan National Railways went private in 1987, the first of many national railways to do so, and the Japanese experience could provide lessons to other nations. This paper evaluates the effects of Japan National Railways' Privatization on labor productivity and employment in the passenger sectors. The main data was obtained from the Annual Rail Statistics of both the Ministry of Transport and Japan National Railways. Quantitative methods such as labor productivity models were used to evaluate the effects of privatization. Large private railways, which are considered the most efficient railways in Japan, are often compared to privatized Japan Railways. Major findings are as follows: First, Japan Railways still have 20% more employees than large private railways. Second, current productivity differences between Japan Railways and large private railways appear in station and maintenance activities. Third, reduction in employment during the transitional periods of privatization greatly contributed to increases in the productivity of Japan Railways. Fourth, it is not clear whether or not productivity differences among regional Japan Railways have been decreasing since privatization. Finally, the effect of privatization on productivity growth was about 29%. Moreover, even if productivity increases, safety is not compromised, with serious accidents clearly being unrelated to productivity growth.

Notes: Abstract This paper explicitly incorporates monopsony market structure into the Weber-Moses's one-output, two-input triangular location model and reexamines the location invariance principle. It will be shown that this principle need not hold if the imperfection of input markets prevails. This is contrary to the conventional wisdom.

Notes: Abstract The relationship between urbanization and level of income has been the subject of considerable theoretical debate and empirical study for many years. However, little recent work has been done to determine whether or not previous findings still hold, and there has been even less multi-country analysis to explore the degree of generality. Analysis of data for metropolitan areas in the United States from 1970 to 1990 indicates per capita income increases directly with population size. For states of the United States and 113 countries for 1960 and 1980 a strong positive relationship exists and holds temporally between level of per capita Gross Domestic Product and percent of the population that is urban.

Notes: Abstract Foreign direct investment in the United States is an integral part of the competition among global industrial core regions. Most foreign investment in the U.S. originates in Europe, Canada, and Japan. Acquisition rather than new plant establishment is the favored mode of investment and the interregional supply of potential acquisition candidates constrains foreign investors' locational choices. This paper provides an analysis of the location of foreign employment in 15 disaggregated sectors across U.S. states in 1990. The results show that foreign firms concentrate employment in existing regions of production. Foreign investments in most raw materials processing sectors particularly favor these places. Some decentralization has occurred in several sectors, especially food, paper, chemicals and petroleum, rubber and plastics, stone, clay and glass products, and primary metals. Other significant determinants of location include labor force characteristics and certain regional preferences. No evidence was found in our analysis of disaggregate sectors that foreign investors avoid strong unions more than their domestic counterparts.

Notes: Abstract Drawing from flexible production literature on industrial networks, this research pays particular attention to the socially embedded nature of firm linkages in a distribution sector. The empirical study of Chinese-owned computer wholesale firms within Los Angeles County shows that the presence of ethnic identity plays a significant role in the internal operation and external transactions of Chinese firms. Ethnic relations facilitate interactions within the ethnic group, producing a closely knit ethnic network within the industry. The heavy reliance on ethnic networks also has led Chinese firms to a notable geographical separation from the remaining firms in the same sector.

Notes: Abstract Producer services employment has grown rapidly within advanced economies in recent years. The bases of demand related to this growth are not well understood by regional scientists. A common view is that this growth is largely attributable to cost-driven factors and vertical disintegration processes on the part of producer service users. This paper demonstrates that cost-driven externalization is not the most important force underlying growth in demand for producer services. The need for specialized knowledge is by far the most important factor behind producer services demand, combined with a variety of other cost, quasi-cost, and non-cost-driven forces.

Notes: Abstract This paper focuses on the dynamic relations between Spain's principal regional labor markets. An economic base mechanism, some of whose assumptions are redefined, is postulated as the essential behavior hypothesis. The bifurcation hypothesis is resolved having regard to the necessary condition of cointegration between the basic sector and the regional aggregate, using series with quarterly periodicity in this case. The identified bases, which need not coincide in each region, allow a dynamic inter-regional model to be built using vector autoregression with an error correction mechanism. The results are a step towards the spatial disaggregation of Spain's labor market and reveal singular dynamic relationships.

Notes: Abstract This paper aims at positioning spatial development at the crossroads of the conflicting needs for spatial mobility and spatial sustainability. Such tensions have explicitly been recognized in recent local, national and international policy documents. A reconciliation of such antagonistic driving forces in our modern network economy requires a solid theoretical framework in which the relevant force fields are depicted and in which the uncertainties inherent in any attempt at steering human behavior in space are explicitly recognized. This requires an analytical framework in which relevant scenarios are systematically projected on a model structure describing the above mentioned force field. This paper will try to offer an operational methodology for coping with the above mentioned conflicting issues in planning for sustainable spatial development. Particular attention will be given to the spatial scale of analyzing sustainable development. The methodology will be illustrated by presenting empirical results from a case study undertaken in the western part of the Netherlands, the so called Randstad.

Notes: Abstract Industrial design can be used to explore some ideas in producer services research. Its geographical location and position in a corporate structure can indicate much about the character of regions and corporations because it represents a way that knowledge is incorporated into production. Hence the size, location and organisation of industrial design can be an important indicator of the vitality of regions. This paper illustrates how these perspectives can be derived, and provides two frameworks that could be used to structure detailed empirical research on firms, industries and regions.

Notes: Abstract Presents results from a recent study of the use of business service consultancies by major UK companies in managing strategic change. This use is examined in relation to all the sources of skilled management labor available to these companies. The focal processes supporting business service development are interaction and competition between the ‘expert labor’ they offer and that available from the internal labor markets of clients. These processes also underpin modern regional agglomeration trends. Systematic variations appear in the use of consultancies according to client size, mode of control, growth, sector and location. It is argued, however, that patterns of business service use fundamentally reflect the management capabilities of client firms in relation to various types of strategic change. In some cases it substitutes for client deficiencies. More often it appears to supplement client strengths across a variety of both sector-specific and more universally applicable expertise. It is concluded that the availability of expert managerial labor is a critical but neglected aspect of regional economic development, of which the growth of business services is one important manifestation.

Notes: Abstract. The paper provides an analysis of network externalities in the telecommunications sector and their effects on corporate and regional performance. It can essentially be regarded as part of the general theoretical reflection on the role of telecommunications in economic development, by emphasising the importance of telecommunications for future economic growth. However, the advantages derived from these technologies stem not only from the technological changes taking place in the sector, but also from their nature as interrelated technologies. This stems from the fact that when a new subscriber joins the network, the marginal costs of his entry are lower than the marginal benefits he creates for people (firms) already networked. This difference between marginal costs and benefits (in favour of the benefits) inevitably reflects on industrial performance and – via multiplicative effects – on regional performance. The paper presents an empirical part where an effort is made to measure telecommunications network externalities. Regional differences in the exploitation of network externalities emerge between firms located in the north and in the south of Italy.

Notes: Abstract This paper focuses on the role of information and communication in international migration by means of a survey which covers economic and broader perspectives, both at the micro and macro levels. The human capital model of migration is reviewed and the likely impact of recent and anticipated developments in telecommunications technology is noted. The job search model is reformulated in the context of international migration but extensive modification is required to describe the potential sampling of job offers and other informational needs of international migrants. It is argued that spatial selectivity is to a large extent influenced by migration networks in which information flows play a critical role. This is further elucidated by offering an analytical framework based on the systems approach to migration.

Notes: Abstract At the beginning of the 1980s, a reverse trend in local economic development began, supporting old urban industrial areas in whichlarge firms represented the most competitive territorial and industrial systems. Using the case of the automobile industry as an example, this paper argues that contrary to what is anticipated by some researchers, the new flexible organization of the large firm will support neither an asymmetrical relationship of control between spatially decentralized firms nor a spatial reconcentration of activities toward industrialized countries. On the contrary, flexible production will support symmetrical networks that bind together spatially decentralized firms in a web of two-way partnership interactions. As space reflects changes in the organization of production, we anticipate greater coordination and interaction between spaces. This process would not be determined, butfacilitated by electronic linkages through technologies such as international EDI systems and groupware designed to increase cooperative work and joint decision-making.

Notes: Abstract. This paper focuses on the role of information and communication in international migration by means of a survey which covers economic and broader perspectives, both at the micro and macro levels. The human capital model of migration is reviewed and the likely impact of recent and anticipated developments in telecommunications technology is noted. The job search model is reformulated in the context of international migration but extensive modification is required to describe the potential sampling of job offers and other informational needs of international migrants. It is argued that spatial selectivity is to a large extent influenced by migration networks in which information flows play a critical role. This is further elucidated by offering an analytical framework based on the systems approach to migration.

Notes: Abstract After initiating a provocative discussion on “regional science in crisis” (Bailly and Coffey 1994; Gibson 1994; Plane 1994; Stough 1994; Anas 1994; Vickerman 1994; Casetti 1995), we now wish to present some additional thoughts on how regional scientists can simultaneously make their field more relevant scientifically and more useful for society. At a time when resources are tight, when the number of regional science students is small, when administrators are scrutinizing our budgets and our ability to generate outside money, we need to do something to regain (or is it simply to gain?) our place in the sun. In this paper, we argue that regional scientists will not reestablish their field by using classical approaches to regional analysis alone. It is essential that we look at new ways to answer questions raised by our social, economic, and political institutions. More specifically, we make some observations concerning the history of regional science, its role within universities, and its nature, as well as offering some suggestions concerning how regional scientists can attempt to improve the situation.

Notes: Abstract In this paper, the impact of endogenous information provision to drivers in road transport is investigated. A static economic equilibrium model is used, which allows potential road users to buy information on the prevailing (stochastic) traffic situation. It takes for granted that an individual will try to acquire proper information when the private benefits of doing so exceed the private costs. By using an information model for road users, the interesting result is found that the provision of endogenous information leads to a strict Pareto improvement. Furthermore, the model shows that — depending on the price of information — it can be efficiency improving to subsidise or tax the motorist information to the user. Finally, there is a relationship between fine congestion pricing and subsidising motorist information. It turns out that the social welfare maximising subsidy under first-best congestion pricing is equal to zero. However, subsidising information may be an attractive policy instrument when a flat congestion pricing scheme is preferred.

Notes: Abstract A theoretical model and a two-stage econometric estimation procedure are proposed for determining the parameters of industry-region-specific cost, input-demand, or other functions using grouped data. The model and estimation procedure are appropriate when only marginal totals or averages are available, or when data are classified by both region and industry but many cells are empty or sparsely represented. An application is reported in which load functions for the hourly input of electricity are estimated for each day of the week and each month of the year in each cell of a 31 × 7 industry-region matrix. The use of the model to simulate the sensitivity of electricity demand to regional location and weather variability is illustrated.

Notes: Abstract. In this paper, the impact of endogenous information provision to drivers in road transport is investigated. A static economic equilibrium model is used, which allows potential road users to buy information on the prevailing (stochastic) traffic situation. It takes for granted that an indiviual will try to acquire proper information when the private benefits of doing so exceed the private costs. By using an information model for road users, the interesting result is found that the provision of endogenous information leads to a strict Pareto improvement. Furthermore, the model shows that – depending on the price of information – it can be efficiency improving to subsidise or tax the motorist information to the user. Finally, there is a relationship between fine congestion pricing and subsidising motorist information. It turns out that the social welfare maximising subsidy under first-best congestion pricing is equal to zero. However, subsidising information may be an attractive policy instrument when a flat congestion pricing scheme is preferred.

Notes: Abstract The effects of structural change in all sectors of some regions in multiregional input-output systems are explored in this paper. For each region, the changes in direct inputs are decomposed into a matrix of intraregional changes and a matrix of interregional backward linkage changes. This distinction provides for a decomposition of changes in the Leontief inverse into a sum of matrices representing the matrices of intraregional and interregional fields of influence of changes. In turn, this process facilitates the identification of changes in gross outputs that may be traced to changes in intra- and interregional structural changes. The analysis is applied to the European input-output tables for 1975 and 1985.

Notes: Abstract In this paper we estimate the amount by which firms' labor costs are increased by compliance with affirmative action regulations imposed on federal contractors for 160 SMSAs in 1980. The paper focuses on determining the cause(s) for variation in these “compliance costs” across SMSAs and in identifying areas of high and low compliance cost. We find that compliance costs are lower in larger SMSAs, more rapidly growing SMSAs, and SMSAs that have relatively large proportions of minorities and females in the labor market.

Notes: Abstract. This paper develops a model which contains agglomeration economies, time variable and is based on both demand-side and supply side considerations and microeconomic foundations. The simulation result indicates that the proposed model can dynamically describe both monocentric and polycentric evolution of urban growth depending on different given conditions. The model also captures the features of decentralization of population and dispersal of economic activities from the central cities to the suburbs.

Notes: Abstract This paper examines the commodity price equilibrium problem in a spatially extended market. The earlier continuous equilibrium modeling approach is extended by explicitly taking into account congestion effects. An optimization model with a flow-dependent transportation cost function is proposed and its dual formulation in terms of a potential function is derived. The complementarity conditions between the primal and dual problems are shown to be equivalent to the spatial price equilibrium conditions with congestion effects.

Notes: Abstract. Since the pioneering work of Wassilly Leontief, a remarkable amount of theoretical and empirical work has continuously supported Input-Output modelling. In particular, the peculiar structure of dynamic input-output (I-O) model have originated, in numerous fields ranging from mathematical economics to system theory, an abundance of contributes. This paper deals with the computational problem of managing regional growth within a dynamic multiregional input-output model. Starting from the basic matrices of technological capital and trade coefficients, the regional components associated to a given group of regions are appropriately recognised and separated. A numerical example, based on the Italian case, is also discussed.

Notes: Summary Preliminary work gauging the impact of varying the spatial and temporal resolution of Cloud Drift Wind (CDW) data using different assimilation techniques is presented, particularly within the framework of a generalised inverse data assimilation scheme. Results are presented for the NW Pacific and Australian regions. There were three main findings for the cases examined. Firstly, hourly and 12-hourly highdensity CDWs produced lower mean forecast errors (relative to intermittent assimilation) than those produced using operational CDWs from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). This is consistent with Le Marshall et al. (1994). Secondly, intermittent assimilation was significantly worse than both the nudging and variational procedures. Finally, there was little improvement using the variational as opposed to the nudging scheme when using 12-hourly data insertion and operational winds from the GTS. There, the variational procedure proved to be about 4 per cent superior to the nudging. This result is of note, given the variational procedure takes about an order of magnitude longer to produce the initial field than does nudging, and should be contrasted with an earlier finding by one of the authors (LML) where the variational procedure was found to be clearly superior to the nudging approach (Bennett et al., 1993) where an enhanced CDW field was used.

Notes: Summary An important measure of the reliability of simulated precipitation fields by general circulation models will be its ability to reproduce the more important features of observed precipitation, including its spatial distribution, annual cycle characteristics, and the more salient features of its interannual variability. Some important characteristics of the large-scale variability of observed precipitation fields during the past few decades over land, and the last 15 years over ocean areas are described in this study. One such feature is an enhancement of the semiannual cycle in the tropics. A second is the strong influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation in modulating the rainfall patterns globally. A third salient feature is the decline of precipitation over the tropics since the mid-1970s, which in turn, appears to be connected to the prevalence of warm ENSO conditions in the Pacific during that time.

Notes: Summary We construct the generalized inverse of a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, in order to prepare initial conditions for the model at time “t=0 hrs”. The inverse finds a weighted, least-squares best-fit to the dynamics for −24〈t〈0, to the previous initial condition att=−24, and to data att=−24,t=−18,t=−12 andt=0. That is, the inverse is a weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational assimilation scheme. The best-fit is found by solving the nonlinear Euler-Lagrange (EL) equations which determine the local extrema of a penalty functional. The latter is quadratic in the dynamical, initial and data residuals. The EL equations are solved using iterated representer expansions. The technique yields optimal conditioning of the very large minimization problem, which has ∼109 hydrodynamical and thermodynamical variables defined on a 4-dimensional, space-time grid. In addition to introducing the inverse NWP model, we demonstrate it on a medium-sized problem, namely, a study of the impact of reprocessed cloud track wind observations (RCTWO) from the 1990 Tropical Cyclone Motion Experiment (TCM-90). The impact is assessed in terms of the improvement of forecasts in the South China Sea att=+48 hours. The calculation shows that the computations are manageable, the iteration scheme converges, and that the RCTWO have a beneficial impact.

Notes: Summary The problem of the thermal circulation over the underlying surface, has been studied analytically for the case when the temperature of the underlying surface depends linearly on one of the horizontal coordinates. A horizontal pressure gradient is specified at the upper boundary of the medium horizontal layer (that has been rotating around the vertical axis) being under consideration, and this fact provides the existence of the background horizontal flow. The problem is essentially nonlinear, since, first, the heat advection, second, the square friction and the heat exchange at the underlying surface are taken into account. The solution depends on three non-dimensional parameters that are determined by the absolute values of the specified horizontal temperature and pressure gradients and by the angle between these vectors. In dependence on the values of the above mentioned parameters the solution properties may be very different. When the horizontal temperature gradient is absent, the solution is a generalization of the Ekman boundary layer classical theory for a case of the nonlinear friction against the underlying surface. The temperature and pressure fields essentially depend on the existence or absence of the background motion velocity component in the direction of the temperature horizontal gradient.

Notes: Summary Finite-difference analysis of Rossby modes has been performed for two staggered hexagonal grids. The solutions are compared with those obtained in analytical case and for rectangular grids. The result for one of the selected hexagonal grids better fits to the analytical solution then the results for the other considered grids. The obtained results may contribute to better understanding of the appropriateness of hexagonal grids in atmospheric and oceanographic modeling and numerical computations.

Notes: Summary A case study is performed of a frontal-wave development on a trailing cold front in the Atlantic. The data base comprises principally the analysis and forecast fields of the global operational weather prediction model of the ECMWF, and the development itself is viewed from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective. It is shown that the ambient atmosphere contained three distinct and salient PV features: at the surface a frontal baroclinic zone; in the lower troposphere a co-aligned, moisture laden elongated band (∼2000 km long and ∼400 km wide) of enhanced PV; and at upper-levels a richly structured, southward extending PV pool. In the developments first phase a large-scale undulation of the surface frontal zone was accompanied by an in-phase movement of the upper-level anomaly. In a second phase two low-level wave features developed around 1000 km apart, and the resulting wave depressions were accompanied by a distortion of the baroclinic zone and the break-up of the low-level PV-band. In the subsequent mature phase the dominant secondary cyclone attained ∼500 km scale in the horizontal and acquired a coherent PV structure in the vertical. A PV-based diagnostic analysis provides evidence of both the self development of the PV features and their synergetic interplay. It also forms the basis for a comparison of the event with traditional and recent hypotheses for frontal-wave development. On the basis of the diagnosed relationship between the customarily depicted surface frontal-wave cups and the low-level PV-band, it is suggested that the segmentation of the latter provides a useful tool for monitoring and forecasting secondary developments. Also in the context of numerical weather prediction brief consideration is given to the sensivity of the frontal-wave development and structure to the spatial resolution of the associated forecast model and the specification of the initial fields.

Notes: Summary The sensitivity of the circulation and water mass properties in a global ocean circulation model (OGCM) to the stability dependent vertical mixing parameterisations of Pacanowski and Philander (1981) and Henderson-Sellers (1985) is investigated. The work extends a previous study which examined upper ocean charateristics and mixed layer evolution resulting from these schemes incorporated in the OGCM and made a recommendation as to the appropriateness of the latter scheme for global models. Under the assumption of constant vertical eddy coefficients (the control case), the model climatology displays acceptable values of North Atlantic Deep Water formation, Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength, and Indonesian throughflow but an excessively deep and diffuse pycnocline structure with weak stratification in the deep ocean. It is found that these circulation and water mass properties are sensitive to the choice of parametrisation of vertical mixing and that the two stability dependent schemes are unable to perform satisfactorily over the global domain, instead being better suited to the tropics. Under conditions optimal for representing the tropical current and temperature structure, these schemes result in significant weakening of major currents (particularly, the ACC) and reductions in the rates of deep water formation and poleward heat transports. These deficiencies can only be remedied at the expense of the improvements to the simulation in the tropical part of the domain. The results presented indicate that the suggestions made in the previous study do not extend to situations where the deep ocean, and particularly, the global thermohaline circulation is important.

Notes: Summary The baroclinic development of an intense meso-scale cyclone (MC) over the Weddell Sea near the Antarctic coast close to the German Georg-von-Neumayer Station (GvN) during the period 26–28 April 1989 was studied by means of satellite and conventional data. ECMWF analyses, radiosonde data and surface observations were used together with AVHRR data, TOVS and SSM/I retrievals for the description of the synoptic and subsynoptic environment associated with the development of the MC. The MC had a diameter of about 500 km, a lifetime of about 40 hours and reached the intensity of a polar low. Wind speeds up to 19 m/s (with gusts up to 24 m/s) were recorded at GvN as the MC approached on 27 April and remained quasi-stationary for about 24 hours. Its development took place in baroclinic conditions of strong low-level cold air advection close to the sea ice front. The genesis of the MC seemed to be triggered by a 500 hPa short-wave trough and a resemblance to a baroclinic development at a boundary layer front was noticed. Low-level thickness fields from TOVS data reflected the baroclinic structure of the MC, but gradients were relatively weak. Wind speed retrievals from SSM/I data did not allow a full analysis of the wind field structure for this case, as they were limited to ice-free ocean. They showed the incipient MC lying in an area with increased wind speed and high surface fluxes of sensible heat. In the mature stage, a maximum in the SSM/I wind speed field was found in the northwestern part of the MC. A meso-scale analysis with a limited area assimilation system for the mature stage showed only weak support of the low-level MC by upper level cyclonic vorticity advection.

Notes: Summary Convection and subsequent precipitation induced by the sea breeze circulations are often observed in the Florida peninsula during summer. In this study, the mechanisms of initiation and maintenance of the convective clouds and precipitation are investigated. A fully-compressible fine resolution non-hydrostatic mesoscale numerical model is used in this study. Surface energy and moisture budget were included in this model to simulate the diurnal cycle of ground surface temperature and wetness. The model also has a sophisticated boundary layer and explicit cloud physics. A sounding obtained from Orlando, Florida at 1110 UTC 17 July 1991 as part of the Convection and Precipitation Electrification (CaPE) experiment is used for initialization. The initial data for the model is kept in geostrophic and thermal wind balance. Several sensitivity tests were conducted to investigate the effects of different treatments of ground surface moisture and temperature on the model forecast of the convection and precipitation induced by the sea breeze circulations. The simulations agree reasonably well with the observations when both surface energy and moisture budget were included in the model to predict ground surface temperature and wetness. The surface moisture has a significant impact on the formation, strength, sustenance, and the location of convection and precipitation induced by the sea breezes.

Notes: Summary A case study of supercell thunderstorm development over Po Valley in northern Italy is discussed. The data were collected during MATREP, a field project operated in the month of June 1990. During the late morning hours of 8 June, before the passage of a cold front, a supercell and a single cell developed at the same time in eastern part of Po Valley, about 60 km apart from each other. Surface mesoscale analysis helps to explain these different storm evolutions due to interaction among local circulations, Adriatic Sea and orography. While dry wind (foehn) dumps the thermodynamic instability in single-cell environment, a moisture circulation affects the origin area of supercell. Computation of corresponding instability indices again supports the peculiar evolution of the two storms which is also analyzed by means of radar data.

Notes: Summary Data from two multiparameter radars are used to diagnose some microphysical characteristics of intense convective storms, in particular, the 24 June 1992 case near Fort Collins and Greeley, Colorado. Dual-polarization and dual-frequency radar measurements from the CSU-CHILL and NCAR/CP-2 radars provided the basis for microphysical interpretations. Supporting in-situ measurements were provided by several T-28 aircraft penetrations of updraft regions. Limited dual-Doppler synthesis as well as surface mesoscale features showed persistent regions of convergence and advection of moist air along the northeast side of the storm complex. The Fort Collins storm was analyzed in detail over its duration including an intercomparison of rainfall rates from raingage and as deduced from specific differential phase and attenuation measurements. Vertical sections of radar data taken parallel and perpendicular to the surface convergence axis showed interesting features such as positiveZ dr and attenuation columns with an LDR ‘cap’ on the inflow side. Such columns provide evidence of the important role of warm cloud processes in this storm. NCAR/CP-2 radar data from a multi-cellular storm in central Florida are also analyzed as a contrast to the 24 June Colorado case.

Notes: Summary Observations of thunderstorms with a dual channel circularpolarization radar have provided dramatic indications of the buildup of the electric field inside the storms and of the sudden collapse of the field at the time of lightning. The indications are obtained by coherently correlating the simultaneous returns in the right- and left-hand circular polarization channels of the radar, and follow up on the pioneering observations of this type by Hendry and McCormick (1976). The correlation is estimated and displayed in real time and the results enable one to predict when a storm has the potential for producing a lightning discharge, and often to anticipate the occurrence of individual discharges. The observations detect the presence of electrically aligned particles, believed to be small ice crystals, which are aligned by the electrostatic field of the storm. The aligned particles cause the radar signal to become progressively depolarized as it propagates through an alignment region, giving rise to correlated right- and left-circular polarization echoes. The alignment direction can be determined from the phase of the correlation and is found to be predominantly vertical, indicating a similar electric field orientation. Weaker horizontal alignment is often observed immediately following lightning discharges, consistent with the idea that the aligned particles are ice platelets which fall with horizontal orientation due to aerodynamic forces. The observations have been found to reveal the onset of strong electrification in developing storms and to indicate when decaying storms no longer have the potential to produce lightning. By compensating for signal-to-noise effects, the variation of the depolarization with range can be determined. This provides detailed pictures of the alignment regions which could be used as tracers of ice crystal populations in storms. The pictures also show the spatial variation of the alignment directions, raising the possibility of remotely mapping the storm electric field structure. Finally, the depolarization rate results readily enable one to distinguish between liquid and solid precipitation in the storms.

Notes: Summary We examine the co-evolving microphysical, kinematic, and electrical characteristics of a multi-cell thunderstorm observed on 21 May 1993 along the Front Range of Colorado using data collected with the 11 cm, multiparameter, CSU-CHILL Doppler radar. The measured polarimetric variables provide information on the size, shape, orientation, and thermodynamic phase of hydrometeors. Recent modeling and observational advances in weather radar polarimetry now permit the inference of bulk-hydrometeor types and mixing ratios, and the measurement of precipitation rate in mixed-phase (i.e., hail and rain) environments. We have employed these and other radar techniques, such as dual-Doppler analyses, to investigate the correlation between the convective life cycle of a multi-cell storm and the evolution of lightning type and flash rate. The observations suggest a strong correlation between the radar-inferred graupel volume suspended in a vigorous updraft in upper-portions of the storm and the in-cloud (IC) lightning flash rate. Our analyses reveal that maxima in the hail rate are related to peaks in the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash rate. Both correlation's are consistent with the non-inductive charging mechanism which relies on collisions between graupel/hail particles and ice crystals in the presence of supercooled water. Peaks in storm outflow are shown to either lag or to coincide with maxima in both the CG flash rate and hail rate. The amount and vertical location of ice in this storm was also related to the strength and polarity of the electric field through observations of a Field Excursion Associated With Precipitation (FEAWP) and a subsequent microburst. We demonstrate that the FEAWP was coincident with the descent of graupel and small hail below the charge reversal level as explained by the non-inductive charging mechanism, and that the further descent of graupel and small hail below the melting level aided in the generation of a microburst near the surface. Using observations of the FEAWP, we present some comparative speculation on the microphysics of the associated lower positive charge center and the applicability of various laboratory charging studies.

Notes: Summary MM-wave radar has now been developed well beyond that of simply providing qualitative information about the presence or location of clouds. Uncertainty about cloud properties leading to gross errors in climate model results has provided the impetus to develop mm-wave radars into reliable, quantitative tools for studying clouds. Besides depicting the small-scale (a few tens of meters) features of tenuous cirrus and low level stratus clouds, the 3 mm and 8 mm wavelength radars described here can examine the physical structure, dynamics and small-scale turbulence of clouds when used alone. Polarization capability of these radars is now generating new information about the deformity of cloud particles needed for calculations of radiation budgets of clouds. When used with other sensors such as lidar or radiometers, additional cloud microphysical information can be retrieved. We discuss here two different ways to calculate ice mass content profiles from radar/lidar data and from radar/IR radiometer data. Mm-wave radar is most suited for these calculations because of complications introduced by 1) Bragg (refractivity) scatter, 2) the lower resolution, and 3) ground clutter effects at longer wavelengths. Combining radar and microwave radiometer data is shown to provide liquid water profiles in warm marine stratus clouds. The small size and weight of mm-wave radars make them particularly suitable for use on aircraft and satellite platforms and we show recent results from an airborne system to make that point. The technology has now advanced to the point where unattended, vertically-pointing, Doppler mm-wave radars will soon be commonly used in research applications.

Notes: Summary The NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory has developed a 915 MHz lower tropospheric wind profiler designed primarily for measuring wind in the planetary boundary layer of the tropics. In recent years the profiler has been used in many field programs worldwide. The profiler is being deployed by the Aeronomy Laboratory at several locations in the tropics to provide long-term measurements for the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program and the Global Ocean Atmosphere Land Surface (GOALS) program. In the absence of precipitating cloud systems the profiler observes winds routinely up to altitudes of 3 to 6 km in the tropics depending primarily on humidity. In the presence of precipitating cloud systems, however, the profiler height coverage is substantially increased due to the presence of hydrometeors to which the profiler is sensitive at its wavelength of 33 cm. In this paper we examine the application of the 915 MHz profiler to the diagnosis and classification of precipitating cloud systems in the tropics. Preliminary results from Christmas Island confirm that at least half of tropical rainfall is stratiform in nature being associated with mesoscale convective systems. The 915 MHz profiler provides a means for the development of a climatology of tropical precipitating cloud systems. Such a climatology is needed to specify diabatic heating rates in large-scale numerical weather prediction and climate models. It should also help develop improved rain retrieval algorithms from satellite observations.

Notes: Summary The nonlinear response of a dynamically unstable shear flow with critical level to an initial temperature anomaly is investigated using a nonlinear numerical model. Both nonconstant and constant shear profiles of the basic flow are considered. Effects of the solid lower boundary on the dynamically unstable, nonlinear flow are also studied. It is found that in a dynamically unstable, linear flow with a hyperbolic tangent wind profile, the updraft is tilted upshear. The result in consistent with that of a linear stability model (LC). The upshear tilt can be explained by the Orr mechanism (1907) and the energy argument proposed by LC. In a dynamically unstable, nonlinear flow, the updrafts produced by a sinusoidal initial temperature perturbation are stronger in the lower layer and are more compact and located further apart compared to the corresponding linear flow. In addition, the perturbed wave energy is slightly smaller than the linear case. It is found that the growth rate is smaller during the early stage and much larger during the later stage. For a localized initial temperature perturbation in a dynamically unstable flow, a stronger updraft with two compensated downdrafts are produced. Gravity waves are produced in a dynamically stable flow with both a hyperbolic tangent wind profile and a linear wind profile. For a linear shear flow with Richardson number less than 1/4, the disturbance grows in the early stage and then decays algebraically at later times, similar to that found in other linear theoretical studies. The influence of the solid lower boundary is to suppress the shear instability in a nonlinear flow with a hyperbolic tangent wind profile ofRi〈1/4.

Notes: Summary Two-thirds of the land mass of Taiwan island is covered by mountains that affect precipitation systems over the island. To understand the influence of such terrain on a precipitation system was one of the objectives of TAMEX (Taiwan Area Mesoscale Experiment, Kuo and Chen, 1990). During the passage of these precipitation systems, Doppler radar readings as well as conventional data were collected. On 17 June, 1987 a precipitation system moving toward northeastern Taiwan dumped over 100 mm of rainfall per day near the mountain foothills, not far from the ocean. Over the lee side, the precipitation amount was less. The radar data results indicate that a series of cells formed about 10 km upstream of the coastal area and moved toward the mountains under the influence of an easterly wind. The zonal speed was about 4 to 8 ms−1. The time interval for the formation of these convective cells was about 40 minutes. They intensified near the coastal area, the foot hills and the mountain slope, but their intensity decreased on the lee-side. A two-dimensional, nonhydrostatic model with a terrain-following coordinate system was employed to study the influence of environmental wind patterns and terrain on the characteristics of a precipitation system. Simulation results indicate that a series of clouds associated with an updraft formed at the middle level, about 10 to 20 km east of the mountain foothills (near the coast line), under the influence of easterly winds in a very moist environment. Then, updrafts associated with cloud water travelled westward from the cloudy region, intensifying near the bottom of the mountains and in the coastal areas due to orographic lifting. Then, convective cells formed. As these cells continued moving westward and upward near the foothills as well as the upslope area near the mountain top, their intensity increased. But once they passed over the mountain top to the lee side, their intensity decreased. The time interval for the formation of cells was about 35 minutes and the size of the cells was about 5 to 8 km horizontally. The numerical results are qualitatively consistent with the observations. Sensitivity studies indicate that the magnitude of the wind speed influenced the formation of the cells. The low level wind profiles affected the movement of cells on the lee-side of the mountain, and the height of mountain also had an impact on the characteristics of the precipitation cells.

Notes: Summary The study addresses some methodological issues of application of principal component analysis (PCA) to the classification of circulation patterns. The obliquely rotated PCA in T-mode (i.e. with time observations corresponding to variables and grid points to realizations) is applied to 500 hPa geopotential heights over Europe and adjacent parts of Atlantic Ocean. The solutions are examined for various numbers of principal components rotated, and for both raw and anomaly data, with the aim to find the way of determining the optimum number of circulation types. This is done, among others, by examining temporal and spatial stability of solutions, their compliance with simple structure requirements, and temporal behaviour of classifications. Some of the solutions that are pre-selected according to the rule based upon the separation between successive eigenvalues prove to perform considerably better than unselected ones; some of them do not. Which pre-selected solutions should be given preference is impossible to decide in advance, without a detailed scrutiny. Nevertheless, even after such a scrutiny is done, more than a single classification are acceptable. The final choice of the optimum solution depends on the aims of the intended study: It should balance the demands on statistical stability of types and on resemblance between types and daily patterns classified with them.

Notes: Summary Meteorological observations were recorded at Dye 2, Greenland during the summer of 1993 as part of a research program to identify interannual variations in melt occurrence on the Greenland ice sheet from satellite microwave data. The meteorological observations were used to drive and energy-balance model of the snowpack during 21 June to 13 July 1993. Time series of the meteorological observations and various model outputs were compared to a concurrent time series of Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data for scan cells centered within 25 km of Dye 2. The satellite microwave observations clearly show an increase in snowpack emissivity at the same time that the model indicates liquid water forming in the snow. Diurnal melt-freeze cycles that occurred during mid June to early July resulted in an increase in the 37 GHz brightness temperature as great as 60K from the dry, refrozen snow in the morning to the wet snow of some afternoons. The effects of fresh snowfall, which tend to increase the brightness temperature, and of snow growth from melt-freeze metamorphism, which tend to decrease the brightness temperature, are also apparent in the microwave observations. The results of this work demonstrate the influence of daily weather variations on the microwave emissivity in the ice sheet's percolation zone and the usefulness of swath data to diagnose the diurnal cycle of melt.

Notes: Summary The normal mode initialization procedures of Phillips (1960) and Temperton (1988) are re-examined and applied to one-dimensional linear and non-linear primitive equations models. The linear method is obtained by setting the first and second substantial time derivatives of the divergence to zero. The resulting state is free of gravity waves. In the non-linear procedure, the substantial time derivatives calculated from the model equations of the gravitational modes are set to zero by implicitly adjusting these modes only. Five-day numerical integrations are performed using both models. The results clearly show the importance of proper initialization. Analytical solutions support the numerical results.

Notes: Summary Ozone for a ten year period obtained from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) has been compared with velocity potential for the same period. It has been found that the global-scale circulation serves to modulate the ozone concentration over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Examination of the low frequency modes reveal close correspondence between the two parameters, especially at the annual timescale. Descending motion over southern Africa reduces precipitation, thereby enhancing biomass burning and the subsequent release of trace gases and the possible photochemical production of ozone. Transport to the ozone maximum region over the tropical Atlantic Ocean occurs mainly from tropical Africa. Little evidence has been found on a climatological time-scale to support the theory of stratospheric infusion into the troposphere above the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Notes: Summary A soil/vegetation/atmosphere transfer (SVAT) scheme for determining the dry deposition and/or emission fluxes of NO, NO2, and O3 in the atmospheric surface layer over horizontally uniform terrain covered with fibrous canopy elements is presented and discussed. This transfer scheme is based on the micrometeorological ideas of the transfer of momentum, heat and matter near the Earth's surface, where chemical reactions between these trace gases are included. The fluxes are parameterized by first-order closure principles. The uptake processes by vegetation and soil are described in accord with Deardorff (1978). The SVAT scheme requires only routine data of wind speed, dry- and wet-bulb temperatures, short wave and long wave radiation, and the concentrations of O3 and nitrogen species provided by stations of monitoring networks. First model results indicate that the dry deposition fluxes of NO, NO2, and O3 are not only influenced by meteorological and plant-physiological parameters, but also by chemical reactions between these trace species and by NO emission from the soil. Furthermore, a small displacement in the concentrations of NO, NO2, and O3 within in the range of the detection limits of the chemical sensors can produce large discrepancies in the flux estimates, which are manifested here by the shift from height-invariant fluxes substantiated by the photostationary state to strongly height-dependent fluxes caused by the departure from that state. Especially in the case of these nitrogen species the widely used ‘big leaf’ multiple resistance approach, which is based on the constant flux approximation seems to be inappropriate for computing dry deposition fluxes and deposition velocities.

Notes: Summary In this paper, based on the 2°×2° grid data COADS from 1950–1987 the flow field and heat exchange anomalies on the (11°S–11°N, 120° E-80°W) tropical Pacific surface (TPS) have been studied in El Nino and La Nina events. During El Nino, the zonal pressure gradient and trade winds decreased on the TPS, the tropical convergence strengthened on TPS, especially on the central TPS, the sensible and latent heat exchange increased, the net longwave radiation and incident solar radiation decreased and the net gain (loss)of heat reduced (increased) on the central and eastern TPS. During La Nina the results were opposite. Finally, two feedback mechanisms which include the dynamic, thermal and hydrological processes during El Nino and La Nina have been summarized and a conceptive model for El Nino-La Nina cycle is given. An estimated period for the El Nino-La Nina cycle is obtained.

Notes: Summary The electromagnetic radiation of cloud discharge known as atmospheric radio noise field strength (ARNFS) shows a gradual fall from a frequency of 9 kHz to 81 kHz as studied over a period of two years at Calcutta, very close to Bay of Bengal. The main characteristic features of ARNFS at Calcutta are that-(i) ARNFS shows that midday median value is smaller than midnight median value in all months, (ii) level of daily minimum is higher in February and monsoon compared to other seasons, (iii) ‘sunrise effect’ and ‘sunset effect’ are well correlated with local sunrise and sunset times, (iv) the magnitude of ‘sunrise fade’ and ‘sunrise fade rate’ are maximum in April and lowest during winter period, (v) the magnitude of sunset fade is higher in premonsoon and postmonsoon while it is lowest in monsoon, (vi) number of occurrence of both sunrise effect and sunset effect is remark-ably smaller in monsoon. The positions of the sun and of atmospheric sources are jointly the causes of seasonal and diurnal variations. The missing of ‘sunrise effect’ and ‘sunset effect’ are due to local cloud activity and variation of electron density during geomagnetic storms.

Notes: Summary The most significant solar spectral radiation bursts that occurred during more than twelve-years observation period at an high altitude station are analyzed. It is shown that the number and amplitudes of solar spectral bursts increase when the solar activity (SA) maximum is approaching. A plausible mechanism of short-term variations of extra-atmospheric solar spectral irradiance (ETSSI) is discussed. It appears that a burst of ETSSI arises when the Earth is sporadically irradiated by a strong flux of induced violet-blue high coming out of magnetic flux tubes in the active region (AR) of the Sun. We confirm earlier conclusions that on the time-scale of decades there is a close relationship between variations in the areas of faculae, the solar constant, and surface air temperature. On the basis of these results we suggest that at the end of the 1930s, when the Sun was very active, its effective output was about 0.4%, and the surface temperature in the Northern hemisphere about 0.4°C, higher than in the first decade of the 20th century.

Notes: Summary The response of the coastal atmosphere in subtropical Western Australia and south-western Africa to easterly flow is considered. Easterly flow, arising from the ridging of a large scale anticyclone near the southern extremity of these land-masses, is a common synoptic pattern, particularly during the summer half of the year. Despite similar synoptic forcing, coastline orientation and latitude, there are significant differences in the response. In Western Australia, the typical response to this easterly flow is a synoptic, non-propagating feature (the West Coast Trough) which may be located on- or offshore. The response in southern Africa is typically a mesoscale, propagating feature (the coastal low) which is trapped against the coastal mountains. It is argued that the steep coastal mountain ranges (about 1 km height) in southern Africa compared to the gentle, low-lying Western Australian topography combined with the mean coastal stratification contribute significantly towards the differences between the coastal low and West Coast Trough. A secondary feature associated with the regional topography is the existence of an oceanic throughflow north of Western Australia from the western equatorial Pacific Ocean with associated flow of the warm Leeuwin Current polewards along the Western Australian coast. It is suggested that this current and the associated lack of coastal upwelling may play a role in the location and intensity of the West Coast Trough.

Notes: Summary Some of the materials comprising the earth's surface such as Fe2O3, TiO2 and ZnO can be semiconducting, and with a shallow layer of water laying above to serve as the electrolyte, may constitute a rudimentary photo-electrochemical cell. We investigated the possiblity that holes created inside the semiconductor by sunlight could pull electrons from the atmosphere by inducing a lower redox potential in the water. The result, solar recharging of the earth's electric field, may be a non-negligible contributor to the entire recharging process.

Notes: Summary The magnitude and diurnal change of turbulent bulk drag coefficients over land have been analysed using mean velocity and temperature gradient data of the planetary boundary layer. The turbulent drag coefficients can be about an order of magnitude larger over the rough land surface than over the sea surface. We computed these coefficients by the same method for three typical underlying surfaces represented by urban, grassland and Gobi desert. The results show that there are significant differences in the turbulent transfer among the three typical underlying surfaces.

Notes: Summary A subset of world ocean monthly mean temperature climatology generated by Levitus and Boyer (1994), is utilised to describe the observed seasonal variability of the characteristics of the near-surface isothermal layer and thermocline for the entire tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The most salient features of the observed annual cycle are described in terms of amplitude and phase of the annual and semi-annual frequencies employing Fourier analysis technique. On the annual mode, the near-surface isothermal layer depth (ILD), exhibits larger variability away from the equator with peak values in the northernmost Arabian Sea, the northernmost Bay of Bengal and the southern TIO, while on the semi-annual mode, it shows larger variability in the central Arabian Sea. The variability of the near-surface isothermal layer temperature (ILT), on the annual mode, is very weak in the warmpool region, and increases with latitude, while on the semi-annual mode, it shows larger variability in the northwestern Arabian Sea. The variability of 20°C isotherm topography (D20), on the annual mode, is weakest in the equatorial region and largest in the coastal regions of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal and in the southern T10, while on the semi-annual mode, it is prominent in the eastern and western equatorial regions. The thermocline gradient (TG) is very sharp below the warmpool region and diffuses meridionally. On the annual mode, it shows larger variability in the southern TIO, off Somalia and northernmost Arabian Sea, while on the semiannual mode, it shows larger variability in the southwestern Arabian Sea and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The relationship between near-surface isothermal layer and thermocline characteristics over an annual cycle are explored through correlation analysis. The correlation between ILD and ILT is strong over much of the basin with the exception of the equatorial and coastal upwelling/downwelling zones where internal ocean dynamics are important. In the southern TIO, entrainment of colder waters appears to be important in maintaining the annual cycle of ILT as strong correlation is noticed between ILT and TG. In the Indo-Pacific throughflow region and another region west of it, the annual Rossby waves appear to control D20, as correlations between D20 and other fields are strong in these regions. A similar strong correlation between D20 and ILD is also noticed in the southeastern Arabian Sea where mode-2 Rossby waves identified in numerical model solutions.

Notes: Summary A land-air parametrization scheme (LAPS) describes mass, energy and momentum transfer between the land surface and the atmosphere. The scheme is designed as a software package which can be run as part of an atmospheric model or a stand-alone scheme. A single layer approach is chosen for the physical and biophysical scheme background. The scheme has six prognostic variables: two temperatures (one for the canopy vegetation and one for soil surface), one interception storage, and three soil moisture storage variables. The scheme's upper boundary conditions are: air temperature, water vapour pressure, wind speed, radiation and precipitation at some reference level within the atmospheric boundary layer. The sensible and latent heat are calculated using resistance representation. The evaporation from the bare soil is parametrized using the “α” scheme. The soil part is designed as a three-layer model which is used to describe the vertical transfer of water in the soil. The performances of the LAPS scheme were tested using the results of meteorological measurements over a maize field at the experimental site De Sinderhoeve (The Netherlands). The predicted partitioning of the absorbed radiation into sensible and latent heat fluxes is in good agreement with observations. Also, the predicted leaf temperature agrees quite well with the observed values.

Notes: Summary The analytical solution of a linear barotropic model is derived, including details of the quasi-geostrophic initialization procedure. The prognostic equations are integrated using three different methods of treating the meteorological and gravitational modes separately. These are a semi-Eulerian, semi-implicit (EI) technique, a semi-Lagrangian, semi-implicit (LI) procedure, and a split-explicit (SE) method. The stability criteria and phase speeds are derived for each of the three techniques. The following theoretical conclusions are derived. Of course, in actual numerical integrations particularly those using more complex models, the results are not so unequivocal. The stability of the EI procedure is governed by the CFL criterion for the meteorological mode. Gravity waves have no effect on the timestep but move more slowly than the analytical waves. The LI method is unconditionally stable with respect to both meteorological and gravitational modes. There is thus no timestep restriction. However, the gravity waves have the same reduced phase speed as in the EI technique. The SE procedure has CFL timestep criteria for both the meteorological and gravitational calculations. However, its gravity wave phase speeds are relatively accurate. Moreover, it is the only one of the three methods that handles the nearly-compensating pressure gradient and Coriolis forces together. From the point of computational efficiency, the LI technique is probably the best.

Notes: Summary The University of Massachusetts' Microwave Remote Sensing Laboratory (MIRSL) has developed a unique high spatial resolution multiparameter radar under sponsorship from the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The Cloud Profiling Radar System (CPRS) uses a single one-meter diameter dielectric lens antenna to make collocated polarimetric and Doppler measurements at both 33 GHz and 95 GHz. The polarization of each transmitted pulse at either frequency can be selected on a pulse-to-pulse basis. The radar and supporting hardware are mounted on a truck that serves as a mobile laboratory. The truck-based platform permits CPRS to operate in remote locations and also serves as an economical means of transporting the system. This paper describes the CPRS hardware and presents preliminary vertically pointing observations of mixed-phase stratus clouds obtained in the summer of 1993 during the first field test of the system. Measurements show Mie scattering in the ice region, melting layer and rain region of the clouds observed. To illustrate CPRS potential for particle sizing, models of differential reflectivity and differential mean Doppler velocity are used to estimate median volume diameter,D 0, from dual-wavelength reflectivity and Doppler measurments of rain.

Notes: Summary Two techniques for deriving horizontal and vertical air motions using vertically scanning airborne Doppler radar data are presented and discussed. These techniques make use of the scanning ability of the NOAA P-3 tail-mounted radar antenna to view a region of space from at least two vantage points during a straight-line flight track. The scanning methodology is termed the “Fore/Aft Scanning Technique” or FAST because the antenna is alternately scanning forward and then aft of the flight track. The major advantages of FAST over flying two quasi-orthogonal flight tracks with the antenna scanning normal to the flight track are that the data are collected in roughly half the time and the aircraft does not have to execute a right-angle turn. However, accuracy of the resulting wind field is compromised slightly because the beam intersection angle is reduced from 90° to about 50°. The reduction of area covered because of large drift angles is also discussed. A three-dimensional wind field can be constructed using the dual-Doppler equations from FAST data using the two radial velocity estimates and vertical integration of the continuity equation with a boundary condition of no vertical motion at cloud top and the Earth's surface. To keep errors in the calculated winds acceptably small, the elevation angles are typically restricted to ±45° from the horizontal to minimize contamination of the horizontal wind by terminal fallspeeds. A different, and perhaps more believable vertical velocity, can be derived using a second technique that utilizes two (or more) airborne Doppler radar equipped aircraft each using FAST to observe the echo-top vertical velocity at common point (e.g., two aircraft flying parallel flight, paths, or by using an L-shaped flight track with a single aircraft). This technique results in 4 (or more) radial velocity estimates at each point (hence is called the “quad-Doppler” technique). Horizontal winds can be derived using either an overdetermined three-equation solution or an overdetermined dual-Doppler solution, whichever is more accurate. For the calculation of vertical velocity a new approach is proposed that utilizes the overdetermined triple-Doppler solution for vertical particle motion near cloud top, minus an estimate of terminal fallspeeds, as a top boundary condition for the downward vertical divergence integration to derive vertical air velocity elsewhere in the domain. In addition, this approach allows measurements at steep elevation angles allowing for more depth of coverage for a given range. To show the utility of the method, analyses of data collected using FAST are compared to conventional dual-Doppler-derived wind fields constructed from data collected simultaneously by S-band ground-based Doppler radars. An example of the quad-Doppler technique is also presented from the recently completed Tropical Oceans/Global Atmospheres Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA/COARE). Comparisons of quad-Doppler vertical velocity are made with in-situ derived vertical air motions collected by the NASA DC-8 to judge the quality of the approach.

Notes: Summary In this paper, interseasonal characteristics of the Asian summer monsoon in the years of 1987 and 1988 are studied as 1987 is characterized by a large deficiency of monsoon rainfall (drought) and that of 1988 by a large excess monsoon rainfall (flood) over India. In order to compare the similarities and differences seen in the large scale dynamics and energetics of the Asian summer monsoon during the years of extreme monsoon activity, uninitialized analyses (12 Z) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.K. are utilized in this study for the summer monsoon seasons of 1987 and 1988. It is found that the excess rainfall season (1988) is characterized by much stronger tropical easterly jet (TEJ) associated with the upper tropospheric easterlies and the East African low level jet (Somali Jet) associated with lower tropospheric westerlies. Such a feature mainly determines the strength of the reverse Hadley circulation which normally covers the South Asian continent during the northern summer. Further, the energetics of the TEJ show that the monsoon of 1988 has comparatively stronger zones of kinetic energy flux divergence (convergence) at its entrance (exit) regions. These zones of kinetic energy flux divergence are largely maintained by the adiabatic processes over the strong kinetic energy flux divergence zones over the Bay of Bengal and east central Arabian Sea as compared to that of 1987. Apart from this, both the zonal and meridional components of the ageostrophic flows are found to be stronger during 1988 monsoon season. Analysis of the vertically integrated thermodynamical features of the monsoon indicate that the monsoon of 1988 was characterized by an excess import of heat and moisture into the monsoon atmosphere as compared to that of 1987. Further, from the quantitative estimation of certain significant heat and moisture budget parameters during the contrasting monsoon seasons of 1987 and 1988, it becomes evident that considerable differences exist in the quantities of adiabatic production of heat energy, diabatic heating and the moisture source/sink.

Notes: Summary The relationship between global circulation, temperature distribution and weather variability as a mechanism of meridional heat exchange over the northern hemisphere has been examined for the period 1967–1991 using analysis data from the German Weather Service. From geopotential heights five parameters, relating to different climatic features, were computed. The data were filtered using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to omit the random noise. The time series of amplitudes for the Principal Patterns were investigated with respect to their linear trends and extreme events. The period 1967–1991 is characterised by a transition from a relatively cool period-beginning in the early 1960s-to a warmer one. The strongest warming took place at different latitudes in the Atlantic and the Pacific section, respectively. Due to the warming the meridional temperature gradient and the geostrophic zonal wind intensified. Strengthened baroclinic conditions reinforced the activities on the synoptic scale and the meridional eddy heat flux. The results corroborate the hypothesis that the enlarged synoptic activity is responsible for the accumulated occurrences of extreme midlatitude storms over the Atlantic and Europe within the last few years and, therefore, that the observation of more frequent deep cyclones is neither random nor due to improved observation techniques.

Notes: Summary In the past, experimental investigations as well as theoretical considerations have shown that within fronts and inversions wind shear and vertical temperature gradient adjust in such a way that the Richardson number is at its critical value. Results from aircraft measurements now suggest that the shear within moving cold fronts, warm fronts and inversions shows different behaviour because of the different mechanisms controlling the Richardson numbers. This leads to higher Richardson numbers, and therefore to lower amounts of wind shear within moving cold fronts when compared to warm fronts and inversions.

Notes: Summary Whilst the tropics comprise only 50% of the Earth's surface, 75% of the annual, global rainfall occurs there. Hence, the tropics are the latent heat engine for the general circulation of the atmosphere. In this environment, all manner of convective weather systems exist: intense and destructive tropical storms (TS), organized mesoscale convective systems (MCCs and CCCs here) and much weaker, short-lived convection (DSL). The relative importance of these differing convective weather systems to the hydrologic cycle of the Atlantic Ocean basin is considered here. An automated, satellite-based climatology and classification of these four different classes of convective weather systems is used to define system characteristics and contribution to basin-wide rainfall over an 18 month time period. It is found that short-lived thunderstorms (DSL class) are the largest contributors to the basin-wide rainfall, however their contribution represents only about half of the total diagnosed rainfall. Organized mesoscale systems contribute the balance. Hence, mesoscale organized weather systems seem to play an important rôle in the Atlantic Ocean hydrologic cycle. Due to the potentially large error bounds on the satellite rainfall climatologies used here, the results of this study are contransted with the recent climatology of Cotton et al. (1995), which incorporates some estimates of rainfall characteristics for mesoscale systems based on numerical model simulations. Comparison of these two climatologies showed good agreement in the relative magnitudes of rainfall determined for each class of convection.

Notes: Summary As an approach to study the mesoscale processes within a typhoon, an axisymmetric nonhydrostatic numerical model is developed without the use of convective parameterization. Many simulated characteristics are consistent with radar and aircraft observations, such as the maximum of vertical and tangential wind, the inflow concentrated near the surface, the outward slope of the eyewall updraft, etc. The model duplicates not only the outward propagation of mesoscale convective systems, but also the inward movement of convective rings, the rate of which coincides with the observation. Besides, the model gives good simulations of the life cycle of convective rings, and indicates that the convective rings far from the eyewall play important roles in the fluctuation of typhoon intensity. Numerical results also exhibit the existence of coupling between outer and inner core structure. Analyses of the simulations show that convective momentum transport generates local maximum absolute angular momentum in the middle and upper troposphere. The momentum anomaly results in symmetric instability, which provides the environment to form convective rings. While the momentum anomaly moves outward with the outflow in the middle and upper troposphere, it initiates a series of convective rings with aid of other direct factors, which explains the outward propagation of convective systems. The simulations exhibit the life cycle of a typical convective ring in terms of three stages, or the developing, mature and dissipating stage. Analysis shows that the symmetric instability and the convective instability promote each other, and their cooperation makes the life of convective rings longer.

Notes: Summary On the basis of Wu and Blumen's work (1982) on the geostrophic momentum approximation (GMA) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and Tan and Wu (1992, 1994) on the Ekman momentum approximation (EMA) in the PBL, some improvements about the eddy exchange coefficientK, the advective inertial force and the lower boundary condition of the PBL are developed in this paper: (1) apply theK which is a gradually varying function of height instead of a constant value in the Ekamn layer, and introduce a surface layer; (2) take the effect of the vertical advective inertial force into account; (3) the solution technique is extended from level terrain to orographically formed terrain. Under the condition of the equilibrium among four forces (the pressure — gradient force, Coriolis force, eddy viscous force and inertial force including horizontal and vertical advective inertial forces), we have obtained the analytical solutions of the distributions of the wind and the vertical velocity. The computation of an individual example shows that: (1) both the wind velocity near surface and the angle between which and the non-viscous wind are more consistent with usual observations than that of Wu and Blumen (1982); (2) comparing with the horizontal advective inertial force, the vertical advective inertial force can not be neglected, when the orography is considered, the effect of the latter is even more important than the former.

Notes: Summary Parameterisations of mixing induced through shear instability, internal wave breaking, and double diffusion are investigated in simulations of ocean climate using a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Focus is placed on the sensitivity of the large scale circulation, water mass formation and transport of heat as measures of the model's ability to represent current climate. The model resolution is typical of OGCMs being coupled to atmospheric. GCMs in climate models and the parameterisations investigated are all computationally inexpensive enough to allow for integrations on long time scales. Under the assumption of constant vertical eddy coefficients (the control case), the model climatology displays acceptable values of North Atlantic Deep Water formation, Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport, and Indonesian through-flow but an excessively deep and diffuse pycnocline structure with weak stratification in the deep ocean. It is found that various circulation and water mass properties are sensitive to the choice of parameterisation of vertical mixing and that determining a scheme which works satisfactorily over all regions (tropical, mid-latitude, and polar) of the domain is not straightforward. Parameterisations of internal wave breaking or upper ocean shear instability lead to some improvements in the model water mass formation. ACC and poleward heat transport when compared to the control case whereas parameterisations of double diffusive processes did not. Based on these and other results, various recommendations are made for mixing parameterisations in ocean climate models.

Notes: Summary In order to improve our understanding of the interannual variability of the 30–50 day oscillations of the northern summer monsoon, we have performed numerical experiments using a 5-level global spectral model (GSM). By intercomparing the GSM simulations of a control summer experiment (E1) and a warm ENSO experiment (E2) we have examined the sensitivity of the low frequency intraseasonal monsoonal modes to changes in the planetary scale component of the monsoon induced by anomalous heating in the equatorial eastern Pacific during a warm ENSO phase. It is found that the anomalous heating in the equatorial eastern Pacific induces circulation changes which correspond to weakening of the time-mean divergent planetary scale circulation in the equatorial western Pacific, weakening of the east-west Walker cell over the western Pacific ocean, weakening of the time-mean Reverse Hadley circulation (RHC) over the summer monsoon region and strengthening of the time-mean divergent circulation and the subtropical jet stream over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. These changes in the large scale basic flow induced by the anomalous heat source are found to significantly affect the propagation characteristics of the 30–50 day oscillations. It is noticed that the reduction (increase) in the intensity of the time-mean divergent circulation in the equatorial western (eastern) Pacific sectors produces weaker (stronger) low-level convergence as a result of which the amplitude of the eastward propagating 30–50 day divergent wave decreases (increases) in the western (eastern) Pacific sectors in E2. One of the striking aspects is that the eastward propagating equatorial wave arrives over the Indian longitudes more regularly in the warm ENSO experiment (E2). The GSM simulations reveal several small scale east-west cells in the longitudinal belt between 0–130°E in the E1 experiment. On the other hand the intraseasonal oscillations in E2 show fewer east-west cells having longer zonal scales. The stronger suppression of small scale east-west cells in E2 probably accounts for the greater regularity of the 30–50 day oscillations over the Indian longitudes in this case. The interaction between the monsoon RHC and the equatorial 30–50 day waves leads to excitation of northward propagating modes over the Indian subcontinent in both cases. It is found that the zonal wind perturbations migrate northward at a rate of about 0.8° latitude per day in E1 while they have a slightly faster propagation speed of about 1° latitude per day in E2. The low frequency monsoonal modes have smaller amplitude but possess greater regularity in E2 relative to E1. As the wavelet trains of low latitude anomalies progress northward it is found that the giant meridional monsoonal circulation (RHC) undergoes well-defined intraseasonal oscillations. The amplitude of the monsoon RHC oscillations are significantly weaker in E2 as compared to E1. But what is more important is that the RHC is found to oscillate rapidly with a period of 40 days in E1 while it executes slower oscillations of 55 days period in E2. These results support the observational findings of Yasunari (1980) who showed that the cloudiness fluctuations on the 30–60 day time scale over the Indian summer monsoon region are associated with longer periods during El Nino years. The oscillations of the monsoon RHC show an enhancement of the larger scale meridional cells and also a stronger suppression of the smaller scale cells in E2 relative to E1 which seems to account for the slower fluctuations of the monsoon RHC in the warm ENSO experiment. It is also proposed that the periodic arrival of the eastward propagating equatorial wave over the Indian longitudes followed by a stronger inhibition of the smaller meridional scales happen to be the two primary mechanisms that favour steady and regular northward propagation of intraseasonal transients over the Indian subcontinent in the warm ENSO experiment (E2). This study clearly demonstrates that the presence of E1 Nino related summertime SST anomalies and associated convection anomalies in the tropical central and eastern Pacific are favourable criteria for the detection and prediction of low frequency monsoonal modes over India.

Notes: Summary Wavelet analysis of global mean temperature data, the drought-flood data of the past 500 years in China, and the temperature time series of Shanghai, highlights the following: (1) the climatic wavelets depend on the hierarchies of a climate system; (2) for different time scales or hierarchies, a climate system may have different catastrophic points and periods; (3) for different time scales or hierarchies, variation of the Southern Hemisphere temperature has an obvious phase-lag compared with that of the Northern Hemisphere and the catastrophe points also lag behind; (4) in a cold-warm period, the cold semi-period of the Northern Hemisphere is obviously longer than the warm one; (5) for different hierarchies or time scales, there exists a phase-lag for the droughtflood variation in China moving gradually with latitude from north to south. Finally, a new technique of climate diagnosis, the phase curve of wavelets, is put forward in this paper.

Notes: Summary The classical forward-in-time upstream advection scheme for uniform flow field has been extended to include non-uniform and time-dependent advective flow. This generalised scheme is described in one dimension for an advective flow which varies both in time and in space. The classical upstream advection scheme is only first-order accurate both in time and in space if the advective flow is not uniform. Higherorder accuracy in both time and space, however, can be easily obtained in the generalised scheme. This generalised scheme with third-order accuracy is applied to the one-dimensional inviscid Burgers equation (socalled self-advection problem), two-dimensional steady flow, and to a time-split shallow water equation model. The results are compared with those obtained from the Takacs' (1985) scheme and from a standard third-order semi-Lagrangian scheme, and also with those obtained from the fourth-order Lax-Wendroff scheme of Crowley (1968) in the time-split shallow water equation model. It is shown that the generalised scheme performs as well as, but is more efficient than, the standard semi-Lagrangian scheme with same order. It is much more accurate than the Takacs' scheme which has large dissipation errors, especially for the flow with strong deformation. In contrast, the generalised scheme has very weak dissipation and has much better dispersion and shapeconserving properties. Although the fourth-order Lax-Wendroff scheme has higher accuracy and can give more accurate numerical solutions for uniform advective flow or solid rotational flow (Crowley, 1968), it is inferior to the generalised third-order scheme for non-uniform flow with strong deformation or large spatial gradients. This generalised scheme, therefore, has considerable application potential in different numerical models, especially for the models using time-split algorithms.

Notes: Summary An observational study is conducted of the lee cyclogenesis that occurred on 11 December 1990 in the southeast region of the Japan central mountains (JCM). The area of the region, roughly defined by the 1000m above sea level is 250×250 km. The principal results are summarized as follows: i) The parent low, which triggered the lee cyclogenesis, was initiated by an upper-level vortex and accompanied by a low-level jet and surface cold front on the upstream side of the JCM. The system moved eastward along the northern edge of the JCM and dissipated. ii) The surface cold front approached the JCM, became blocked in the middle of the JCM, and stagnant for about three hours. South of the JCM, however, the cold front advanced eastward with no blocking. This resulted in the formation of a strong horizontal wind shear zone along the southeastern edge of the JCM, between the warmer air on the downstream side of the JCM and the colder air to the south. A shallow cyclonic vortex, confined to within 3 km above ground level was subsequently generated in the horizontal wind shear zone. iii) The vortex moved eastward along a meso-scale coastal warm front, which previously existed for more than ten hours over the Kanto Plain, since the morning of 11 December. The vortex coupled with the upper-level vortex when it moved over the warm sea area east of the Japanese Islands, and then rapidly developed (12hPa/12h).

Notes: Summary It is shown that there exists a mechanism that can cause north-northwest movement of tropical cyclones in addition to already recognised mechanisms such as steering current and beta drift. This mechanism depends on the interaction between organised convection and dynamics. In the initial stages of formation of a cyclone, it is assumed that the hydrodynamic instabilities result in an incipient disturbance that organises some convection giving rise to a heat source. The atmospheric response to a localized heat source located off the equator in the northern hemisphere produces a low level vorticity field with a maximum in the northwest sector of the original heat source. If the ‘Ekman-CISK’ which depends on the low level vorticity, was the dominating mechanism for moisture convergence, the location of the heat source would move to the new location of vorticity maximum. A repetition of this process would result in a northwest movement of the heat source and hence that of the cyclone. The movement of a tropical vortex under the influence of this mechanism which depends on asymmetries created by linear dispersion of Rossby waves is first illustrated using a linear model. It is then demonstrated that this process also enhances the motion of a tropical vortex in a nonlinear model. Importance of this feedback and the resulting movements of a tropical vortex in determining the actual track of a cyclone and in bogusing an initial vortex for prediction models are illustrated.

Notes: Summary Spatio-temporal characteristics of the 25–50-day oscillations are investigated using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and spectral analysis with the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). Daily pressure values over India during 1978 are used in this study. Power spectra of the temporal coefficients of the two leading EOFs show the existence of a low frequency oscillation with a period range 25–50-day over all India. An analysis using extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) indicates North-Eastward propagating 25–50-day mode. The analysis EOF has allowed to establish a relationship between the 25–50-day oscillation and the activity of the summer monsoon. The North-Eastward propagation of this mode is also confirmed by the simple EOF analysis.

Notes: Summary A coupled ocean-atmosphere anomaly model has been developed for simulating ENSO cycle and its mechanism-study in this paper. After a long model run, the coupled model is successful in demonstrating ENSO-like irregular interannual variability and corresponding horizontal spatial structures. Based on the simulated results, the dynamics and the thermodynamics of the model ENSO cycle have been investigated, and in particular the negative feedback mechanisms that act to oppose instability of air-sea interaction, inducing termination of warm and cold events, have been examined. A detailed analysis of the oceanic wave dynamical properties and heat budget of the SST changes in a representative cycle suggest that the negative feedback mechanism to check the unstable growth of a warm event obviously differs from that of a cold event. The mechanism that induces decay and termination of a cold event is closely related to the negative, delayed feedback effect produced by the oceanic dynamical wave reflection at the western boundary. However, independent of the wave reflection effect, the negative feedback mechanism by which the coupled system returns from a warm event is associated with a slowly eastward-propagating coupling mode. Accompanied with the strong unstable development of the equatorial positive SST anomaly, the anomalous upwelling of cold water generated off the equator and the nonlinear anomalous meridional advection generated in the equator west of instability area jointly restrain the instability and finally plunge the system from a mature warm phase into a weak cold phase. A comparison between the results from the present model and the previous works is also discussed in this paper.

Notes: Summary In this study, a detailed examination on the evolution of summer monsoon onset over southern tip of the Indian peninsula, its advancement and withdrawal over the Indian sub-continent is carried out by utilizing the analysis/forecast fields of a global spectral model for Monsoon-1995. The data base used in this study is derived from the archives of global data assimilation and forecasting system of NCMRWF, India, valid for 00UTC at 1.5° latitude/longitude resolution for the summer monsoon period of 1995. By utilizing the analyses and forecast fields, and the established knowledge of the Indian monsoon, objective criteria are employed in this study for determining the onset, advancement, and withdrawal of the monsoon. It is found that all the major characteristics of Monsoon-1995 are captured well by the analysis-forecast system even though the criteria adopted in this study are more objective and different in nature as compared to the conventional procedures. The onset date of monsoon over the southern tip of the Indian peninsula as determined by the dynamical onset procedure is found to be matching well with the realized date. Further, the evolution of monsoon onset characteristics over the Arabian Sea both in the analyses and forecasts is found to be in good agreement with the earlier studies. However, the magnitudes of net tropospheric moisture build-up and tropospheric temperature increase differ with respect to analyses and corresponding forecast fields. In addition, all important characteristics of the advancement and withdrawal of monsoon over the Indian sub-continent viz. stagnation, revival etc., are brought out reasonably well by the analysis and forecast system.

Notes: Summary We compare radiosonde observations of relative humidity with NWP versions of the Meteorological Office Unified Model, and attempt to understand the causes of the systematic differences seen. The differences are found to have a different structure in cyclonic and anticyclonic situations over the UK. In cyclonic situations the mid-tropospheric temperature and humidity differences could be due to model biases, consistent with the conservation of energy; the latent heating from precipitation of the model's excess moisture would remove the model's cold bias. There is also some evidence for observational bias. Wetting of the sonde sensor in cloud can cause a moist bias at higher levels. The Väisala RS80 sonde also appears to have a dry bias near saturation. The Unified Model has a parameterisation for stratiform cloud which calculates the fractional cloud cover in a gridbox from the box-average relative humidity, allowing for sub-grid-scale variability within the box. This scheme has been tuned to give reasonable cloud amounts with the model's relative humidities. The cloud amounts implied (by the scheme) for radiosonde relative humidities are systematically less than the observed cloud. So assimilation of the observed humidities can significantly degrade analyses and predictions of cloud. Bias corrections for the radiosonde humidities have been calculated to compensate for this. Experiments have been performed to test the effect of the bias correction on the assimilation and prediction of cloud and precipation. With the control system, cloud cover and precipitation spins-up during the forecast period; the bias correction improves this. A large improvement was also found when the relationship between the temperature and humidity assimilation was changed; it is better to assume that temperature and relative humidity errors are uncorrelated, rather than temperature and specific humidity.

Notes: Summary The importance of quantitative knowledge of tropical rainfall, its associated latent heating and variability is summarized in the context of climate change. Since the tropics are mainly covered with oceans, with some deserts and jungles, the monthly precipitation is not known within a factor of two. Hence the only way to measure it adequately for climate and general circulation models is from space. The paper describes the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). This joint Japan-U.S. cooperative Earth Probe satellite will be launched from Japan in 1997 for a three-year mission. The scientific basis of the instrument and orbit selection is explained. The precipitation instrument complement comprises the first rain radar to be flown in space (PR), and a multi-channel passive microwave sensor (TMI) improved relative to the SSM/I1 by an additional channel at 10 GHz. The third rain instrument is a five-channel VIS/IR (VIRS) sensor. Progress in construction of instruments, observatory, data system, and the ground validation program is summarized. A report is also given concerning development of the algorithms by which rainfall and its associated latent heat release will be calculated from the several instruments, separately and in combination, and how the scientists will interact with the data system to obtain the 32 rain data products necessary to fulfill the science requirements.