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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Physics Letters B 101 (1981), S. 51-54 
    ISSN: 0370-2693
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Physics Letters B 83 (1979), S. 327-330 
    ISSN: 0370-2693
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 59 (1996), S. 257-258 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 72 (2000), S. 233-250 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  Heavy precipitation events to the south of the Alps are usually associated with a southerly pre-frontal low-level jet advecting moisture toward the southern slopes of the Alps. Here we use idealised numerical simulations to assess the nature of the associated flow regimes and the mechanisms leading to vertical lifting and precipitation. The idealisations comprise: a simplified arc-shaped barrier-like orographic obstacle of Alpine scale; neglection of the tropopause; a stationary two-dimensional upstream flow configuration that includes a frontal structure and a low-level jet; hydrostatic dynamics with free-slip lower boundary conditions; and a simplified set of parameterizations to address dry, moist absolutely stable, and moist conditionally unstable upstream flow configurations. Within the dry dynamics, typical settings lead to Alpine-scale flow splitting with pronounced left/right asymmetries with respect to the incident southerly flow. Strong vertical lifting occurs over the western portion of the upstream slopes, within the stream of air that tries to circum go the elongated obstacle on the western flank. Thus, despite belonging to the “flow-around” regime, these flow configurations can exhibit vertical lifting over the whole height of the obstacle. The responsible asymmetry is primarily induced by the Coriolis effect in the presence of an elongated mountain, but it can further be intensified by the impinging low-level jet and the arc-shape of the Alpine topography. With a conditionally unstable moist upstream profile, the flow is able to surmount the obstacle without pronounced horizontal deflections. Maximum precipitation rates of are obtained. When moist convection is suppressed by using a moist absolutely stable upstream profile, the flow is again substantially deflected and shows the typical characteristics of the dry flow regime discussed above, with somewhat reduced precipitation rates as compared to the convective case. Overall there is evidence that the asymmetry introduced by the Coriolis effect, a pronounced low-level jet, and a moist upstream profile, all facilitate vertical lifting and thereby provide a suitable environment for heavy condensation and precipitation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract.  Nested limited-area modelling is one method of down-scaling general circulation model (GCM) climate change simulations. To give credibility to this method the nested limited-area model (LAM) must be shown to simulate local present-day climate conditions fairly accurately. Here seven different European limited-area models driven by observed boundary conditions (operational weather forecast analyses) are validated against observations, and inter-compared for summer and winter months. Relatively large biases are found. In summer large positive surface air temperature biases are found over southeast Europe. The main reason is deficiencies in the surface hydrological schemes causing an unrealistic drying of the soil. In at least one of the models, most likely several of them, an additional factor is an overestimation of incoming solar radiation. Apart from excessive precipitation in mountainous areas in some models they generally show a negative bias due to the drying and decreased advection from the Atlantic. In winter most models have a positive precipitation bias which seems to be caused by an enhancement of advection from the Atlantic and enhanced cyclone activity. Surface air temperature biases are negative probably due to an underestimation of the incoming longwave radiation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Theoretical and applied climatology 53 (1996), S. 185-209 
    ISSN: 1434-4483
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Summary An assessment is made of a regional climate model's skill in simulating the mean climatology and the interannual variability experienced in a specific region. To this end two ensembles comprising three realizations of month-long January and July simulations are undertaken with a limited are a operational NWP model. The modelling suite is driven at its lateral boundaries by analysed meteorological fields and the computational domain covers Europe and the North-western Atlantic with a horizontal resolution of 56 km. Validation is performed against both operational ECMWF analyses and objectively analysed precipitation fields from a network of ~ 1400 SYNOP rain gauge stations. Analysis of the simulated ensemble-mean climatology indicates that the model successfully reproduces both the winter and summer distributions of the primary dynamical and thermodynamical field, and also provides a reasonable representation of the measured precipitation over most of Europe. Typically the domain averaged model-biases are below 0.5 K for temperature and 0.1 g/kg for specific humidity. Analysis of the interannual variability reveals that the model captures the wintertime changes including that of the precipitation distribution, but in contrast the summertime precipitation totals for the individual years is not simulated satisfactorily and only partially reproduces the observed regional interannual variability. The latter shortcomings are related to the following factors. Firstly the model bias in the dynamical fields is somewhat larger for summer than winter, while at the same time summertime interannual variability is associated with weaker effects in the dynamical fields. Secondly the summertime precipitation distribution is more substantially affected by small-scale moist convection and surface hydrological processes. Together these two factors suggest that summertime precipitation over continental extratropical land masses might be intrinsically less predictable than wintertime synoptic scale precipitation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2012-04-15
    Description: Regional projections of future climate with associated uncertainty estimates are increasingly being demanded. Generally, such scenarios rely on a finite number of model projections and are accompanied by considerable uncertainties which cannot be fully quantified. Consequently, probabilistic climate projections are conditioned on several subjective assumptions which can be treated in a Bayesian framework. In this study, a recently developed Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm is applied to regional climate model simulations from the ENSEMBLES project to generate probabilistic projections for Switzerland. The seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios are calculated relative to 1980–2009 for three 30-year scenario periods (centred at 2035, 2060, and 2085), three regions, and the A1B emission scenario. Projections for two further emission scenarios are obtained by pattern scaling. Key to the Bayesian algorithm is the determination of prior distributions about climatic parameters. It is shown that the prior choice of model projection uncertainty ultimately determines the uncertainty in the climate change signal. Here, we assume that model uncertainty is fully sampled by the climate models available. We have extended the algorithm such that internal decadal variability is also included in all scenario calculations. The A1B scenarios show a significant rise in temperature increasing from 0.9–1.4 °C by 2035 (depending upon region and season), to 2.0–2.9 °C by 2060, and to 2.7–4.1 °C by 2085. Mean precipitation changes are subject to large uncertainties with median changes close to zero. Significant signals are seen towards the end of the century with a summer drying of 18–24% depending on region, and a likely increase of winter precipitation in Switzerland south of the Alps. The A2 scenario implies a warming of 3.2–4.8 °C, and a summer drying of 21–28% by 2085, while in case of the mitigation scenario RCP3PD, climate change could be stabilized to 1.2–1.8 °C of warming and 8–10% of drying. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2011-11-22
    Description: Regional projections of future climate with associated uncertainty estimates are increasingly being demanded. Generally, such scenarios rely on a finite number of model projections and are accompanied by considerable uncertainties which cannot be fully quantified. Consequently, probabilistic climate projections are conditioned on several subjective assumptions which can be treated in a Bayesian framework. In this study, a recently developed Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm is applied to regional climate model simulations from the ENSEMBLES project to generate probabilistic projections for Switzerland. The seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios are calculated relative to 1980–2009 for three 30-year scenario periods (centred at 2035, 2060, and 2085), three regions, and the A1B emission scenario. Projections for two further emission scenarios are obtained by pattern scaling. Key to the Bayesian algorithm is the determination of prior distributions about climatic parameters. It is shown that the prior choice of model projection uncertainty ultimately determines the uncertainty in the climate change signal. Here, we assume that model uncertainty is fully sampled by the climate models available. We have extended the algorithm such that internal decadal variability is also included in all scenario calculations. The A1B scenarios show a significant rise in temperature increasing from 0.9–1.4 °C by 2035 (depending upon region and season), to 2.0–2.9 °C by 2060, and to 2.7–4.1 °C by 2085. Mean precipitation changes are subject to large uncertainties with median changes close to zero. Significant signals are seen towards the end of the century with a summer drying of 18–24% depending on region, and a likely increase of winter precipitation in Switzerland south of the Alps. The A2 scenario implies a warming of 3.2–4.8 °C, and a summer drying of 21–28% by 2085, while in case of the mitigation scenario RCP3PD, climate change could be stabilized to 1.2–1.8 °C of warming and 8–10% of drying. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2014-09-25
    Description: ABSTRACT Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are to be expected in a future warmer climate. For Switzerland, recent climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models project for the A1B emission scenario summer mean precipitation to significantly decrease by the end of this century, whereas winter mean precipitation tend to rise in Southern Switzerland. From an end-user perspective, projected changes in seasonal means are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we investigate the projected changes in seasonal precipitation by considering changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation type (convective vs stratiform) and temporal structure (wet and dry spells) over Switzerland. As proxies for rain-type changes, we rely on the parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components simulated by the models. The study reveals that the projected summer drying over Switzerland at the end of the century is mainly driven by a widespread reduction in the number of precipitation days. Thereby, the drying evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with a decrease in both convective and large-scale precipitation. Over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only, whereas convective precipitation remains at current levels. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in convective fraction at elevated altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in the number of multi-day wet (dry) spells. This future shift in multi-day episodes also lowers down the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. The models further project a higher mean precipitation intensity in spring and autumn north of the Alps, whereas a similar tendency is expected for the winter season over most of Switzerland.
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2004-12-01
    Print ISSN: 1350-9047
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-5403
    Topics: Biology , Medicine
    Published by Springer Nature
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