ISSN:
1436-3259
Keywords:
Climate change
;
daily precipitation modelling
;
generalized linear models
;
iteratively reweighted least squares
;
spline functions
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
,
Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
,
Geography
,
Geosciences
Notes:
Abstract The precipitation amounts on wet days at De Bilt (the Netherlands) are linked to temperature and surface air pressure through advanced regression techniques. Temperature is chosen as a covariate to use the model for generating synthetic time series of daily precipitation in a CO2 induced warmer climate. The precipitation-temperature dependence can partly be ascribed to the phenomenon that warmer air can contain more moisture. Spline functions are introduced to reproduce the non-monotonous change of the mean daily precipitation amount with temperature. Because the model is non-linear and the variance of the errors depends on the expected response, an iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is needed to estimate the regression coefficients. A representative rainfall sequence for the situation of a systematic temperature rise is obtained by multiplying the precipitation amounts in the observed record with a temperature dependent factor based on a fitted regression model. For a temperature change of 3°C (reasonable guess for a doubled CO2 climate according to the present-day general circulation models) this results in an increase in the annual average amount of 9% (20% in winter and 4% in summer). An extended model with both temperature and surface air pressure is presented which makes it possible to study the additional effects of a potential systematic change in surface air pressure on precipitation.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01581761
