ALBERT

Description: In 2009, the German government launched its "National Development Plan for Electric Mobility" which set the concrete target of having 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2020. However, there have been hypes around e-mobility before and even if this goal were to be reached, a merely quantitative aim of a certain number of electric vehicles will not suffice to contribute to a more sustainable development in transport. This requires a more comprehensive vision of sustainable e-mobility as a system innovation. Thus, the question addressed in this thesis is: How can we assess - at this critical early stage - whether there is potential for e-mobility developing as a sustainable system innovation? A theoretical framework will be developed for assessing the potential of a wider transition at an early stage by analyzing current patterns of socio-technical co-evolution and embedding these in a wider framework of the structural dynamics involved in transitions. The aim of the analysis is to identify whether 'system-innovative' projects do emerge in the case of Germany/Baden-Württemberg and what patterns (e.g. in terms of specific actor constellations, institutional adjustments etc.) can explain this. It will be shown that the system-innovative potential of this e-mobility niche remains limited, due to the powerful influence of incumbents, conflicting political goals and traditional science approaches. A few more system-innovative activities emerge where powerful actors from outside are involved, who are capable of viewing mobility in a more systemic way (e.g. actors from the public transport or housing sector). It is argued that the role of large demonstration projects is important, but they need to be designed as transdisciplinary research projects from the beginning.

Description: Many countries have started to develop policy programs for the sustainable use of natural resources. Indicators and targets can cover both a territorial and a life-cycle-wide global perspective. This article focuses on how a safe operating space for global material resource use can be outlined based on existing economy-wide material flow indicators. It reflects on issues such as scale and systems perspective, as the choice of indicators determines the target "valves" of the socio-industrial metabolism. It considers environmental pressures and social aspects of safe and fair resource use. Existing proposals for resource consumption targets are reviewed, partially revisited, and taken as a basis to outline potential target values for a safe operating space for the extraction and use of minerals and biomass by final consumption. A potential sustainability corridor is derived with the Total Material Consumption of abiotic resources ranging from 6 to 12 t/person, the Total Material Consumption of biotic resources not exceeding 2 t/person, and the Raw Material Consumption of used biotic and abiotic materials ranging from 3 to 6 t/person until 2050. For policy, a "10-2-5 target triplet" can provide orientation, when the three indicators are assigned values of 10, 2, and 5 t/person, respectively.

Description: A future-oriented and sustainable "Leasing Society" is based on a combination of new and innovative serviceoriented business models, changed product and material ownership structures, increased and improved eco-design efforts, and reverse logistic structures. Together these elements have the potential to change the relationship between producers and consumers, and thereby create a new incentive structure in the economy regarding the use and re-use of resources. While the consumer in a leasing society buys a service (instead of a product), the producer in a leasing society retains the ownership of the product (instead of selling it) and sells the service of using the product. This creates producer incentives to re-use, remanufacture, and recycle products and materials and could become a cornerstone of the circular economy, depending on how the leasing society is implemented. While a predominantly positive picture of the success of a leasing society model and related business cases emerges from the bigger part of the available literature, this paper argues that the resource efficiency of respective business cases is highly dependent on the specific business case design. This paper develops a more cautious and differentiated definition of the leasing society by discussing relevant mechanisms and success factors of leasing society business cases. The leasing society is discussed from a micro business-oriented and a macro environment-oriented perspective complemented by a discussion of conditions for successful business models that reduce environmental impacts and resource footprints.

Description: The German "Energiewende" (energy transition) is meant to be a contract between generations. The rebuilding of the whole energy system is designed and financed today in order to safeguard our children and grandchildren against fundamental risks: the enormous economic, social and environmental costs of a fossil-nuclear energy system, the risks of the nuclear fuel-cycle and the impacts of climate change, as well as energy import dependency, price shocks and geopolitical disputes over scarce resources. In contrast, a successful Energiewende creates new business areas and qualified jobs and increases competitiveness in the "green race" - in particular on the lead markets for efficiency technology and renewable energy. Accordingly, the Energiewende is described in this book as the collective effort of post-war German history and as a unique learning arena for a positive socio-economic transformation with international relevance. The book covers the formation of both the social and scientific Energiewende consensus, quantitative scenarios, the state of the Energiewende in 2015, the need for further policy intervention - in particular with respect to energy efficiency, and not least the integration of efficiency, sufficiency and renewable energy policies.

Description: Heating behavior of households is key for reducing domestic energy demand and mitigating climate change. Recently, various technical devices have been developed, providing households with feedback on their heating behavior and supporting energy conservation behavior. The impact of such devices on overall energy consumption depends on (1) the impact of a device within a household, (2) the diffusion of devices to other households and the number of adopters, and (3) the diffusion of the induced behavioral change beyond these households. While the first two processes are currently established in assessments of sustainable household devices, we suggest that adding behavior diffusion is essential when assessing devices that explicitly target behavioral change. We therefore propose an assessment framework that includes all three processes. We implement this framework in an agent-based model by combining two existing simulation models to explore the effect of adding behavior diffusion. In three simulation experiments, we identify two mechanisms by which behavior diffusion (1) spreads the effect of such devices from adopters to non-adopters and (2) increases the average speed of behavioral change of households. From these results we conclude that behavior diffusion should be included in assessments of behavior-changing feedback devices.

Description: Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows how modelling can enhance the understanding of and support stakeholders to steer societal transitions. It discusses the benefits modelling provides for studying large societal systems and elaborates on different ways models can be used for transitions studies. Two model applications are presented in some detail to illustrate the benefits. Then, limitations of modelling societal transitions are discussed, which leads to an agenda for future activities: (1) better cooperation in the development of dynamic models, (2) stronger interaction with other transition scholars and stakeholders, and (3) use of additional modelling approaches that we think are relevant to and largely unexplored in transitions studies.

Description: German electricity giants have recently taken high-level decisions to remove selected fossil fuel operations from their company portfolio. This new corporate strategy could be seen as a direct response to the growing global influence of the fossil fuel divestment campaign. In this paper we ask whether the divestment movement currently exerts significant influence on decision-making at the top four German energy giants - E.On, RWE, Vattenfall and EnBW. We find that this is not yet the case. After describing the trajectory of the global fossil fuel divestment campaign, we outline four alternative influences on corporate strategy that, currently, are having a greater impact than the divestment movement on Germany's power sector. In time, however, clear political decisions and strong civil support may increase the significance of climate change concerns in the strategic management of the German electricity giants.

Description: Social innovations, which transform resource intensive routines and practices into low-resource ones, combined with socio-technically designed transition paths, which are created around sustainability and environmental criteria, are milestones for implementation and diffusion of SCP (Sustainable Consumption and Production). This paper analyses such processes based on eight key components in order to evaluate and explain transformation and transition towards a sustainable lifestyle. Actors on all levels of society are included in this approach, creating a whole framework. Global megatrends, such as climate change, demographic change or resource scarcity will be put into relation with current policies and production trends, which play an important role for the development of transition pathways and future scenarios. This will enable us to work out guidelines and ideas on how to create a more sustainable society specifically.

Description: The geomagnetic field is subject to possible reversals or excursions of polarity during its temporal evolution. Considering that: (a) in the last 83 million yr the typical average time between one reversal and the next (the so-called chron) is around 400 000 yr, (b) the last reversal occurred around 780 000 yr ago, (c) more excursions (rapid changes in polarity) can occur within the same chron and (d) the geomagnetic field dipole is currently decreasing, a possible imminent geomagnetic reversal or excursion would not be completely unexpected. In that case, such a phenomenon would represent one of the very few natural hazards that are really global. The South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is a great depression of the geomagnetic field strength at the Earth’s surface, caused by a reverse magnetic flux in the terrestrial outer core. In analogy with critical point phenomena characterized by some cumulative quantity, we fit the surface extent of this anomaly over the last 400 yr with power law or logarithmic functions in reverse time, also decorated by logperiodic oscillations, whose final singularity (a critical point tc) reveals a great change in the near future (2034±3 yr), when the SAA area reaches almost a hemisphere. An interesting aspect that has recently been found is the possible direct connection between the SAA and the global mean sea level (GSL). That the GSL is somehow connected with SAA is also confirmed by the similar result when an analogous critical-like fit is performed over GSL: the corresponding critical point (2033±11 yr) agrees, within the estimated errors, with the value found for the SAA. From this result, we point out the intriguing conjecture that tc would be the time of no return, after which the geomagnetic field could fall into an irreversible process of a global geomagnetic transition that could be a reversal or excursion of polarity.

Description: Published

Description: 3395-3403

Description: 1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: The role of diffuse photospheric magnetic elements in the energy budget of the upper layers of the Sun’s atmosphere has been the recent subject of many studies. This was made possible by the availability of high temporal and spatial resolution observations of the solar photosphere, allowing large numbers of magnetic elements to be tracked to study their dynamics. In this work we exploit a long temporal series of seeing-free magnetograms of the solar photosphere to study the effect of the turbulent convection on the excitation of kink oscillations in magnetic elements. We make use of the empirical mode decomposition technique in order to study the transverse oscillations of several magnetic flux tubes. This technique permits analysis of non-stationary time series like those associated to the horizontal velocities of these flux tubes, which are continuously advected and dispersed by granular flows. Our primary findings reveal the excitation of low frequency modes of kink oscillations, which are subharmonics of a fundamental mode with a 7.6 ± 0.2 min periodicity. These results constitute observational proof of the excitation of kink waves by the buffeting of the convection cells in the solar photosphere, and they are discussed in light of their possible role in the energy budget of the upper Sun’s atmosphere.

Description: Published

Description: A102

Description: 1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In this paper we present a probabilistic hazard assessment for tephra fallout at Mt. Etna (Italy) associated with both short- and long-lived eruptions. Eruptive scenarios and eruption source parameters were defined based on the geological record, while an advection–diffusion–sedimentation model was used to capture the variation in wind speed and direction with time after calibration with the field data. Two different types of eruptions were considered in our analysis: eruptions associated with strong short-lived plumes and eruptions associated with weak long-lived plumes. Our probabilistic approach was based on one eruption scenario for both types and on an eruption range scenario for eruptions producing weak long-lived plumes. Due to the prevailing wind direction, the eastern flanks are the most affected by tephra deposition, with the 122 BC Plinian and 2002–2003 eruptions showing the highest impact both on infrastructures and agriculture.

Description: Published

Description: 3221– 3233

Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: A sequence of thousands of small to moderate earthquakes has been occurring since spring 2010 in the Pollino Mountains area, southern Italy, where a seismic gap was previously hypothesized by paleoseismological evidence associated with the lack of major earthquakes in historical catalogs.

Description: Published

Description: 955-962

Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: We show the preliminary seismic monitoring of a historical church in L’Aquila (central Italy), which was strongly damaged by the 2009 seismic sequence. This structure, S. Maria del Suffragio church, suffered the collapse of a great part of the dome during the April 6th 2009 Mw 6.1 earthquake. In this paper, recordings of ambient noise and local earthquakes have been analyzed. The seismic data were recorded by means of a dynamic monitoring system (19 mono-directional and 3 tri-directional piezoelectric accelerometers) and of two velocimeters, with all the instruments installed into the church. The aim of this re- search is the evaluation of the performance of the accelerometers of the monitoring system in case of low-amplitude vibrations. Simple techniques of analysis commonly employed in the seismic characterization of buildings have been applied. The reliability of the in-situ data was evaluated and the main modal parameters (natural frequencies and damping ratio) of the church were presented

Description: Published

Description: S0654

Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e Osservazioni

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Solidified frictional melts, or pseudotachylytes, remain the only unambiguous indicator of seismic slip in the geological record. However, pseudotachylytes form at 〉5 km depth, and there are many rock types in which they do not form at all. We performed low- to high-velocity rock friction experiments designed to impose realistic coseismic slip pulses on calcite fault gouges, and report that localized dynamic recrystallization may be an easy-to-recognize microstructural indicator of seismic slip in shallow, otherwise brittle fault zones. Calcite gouges with starting grain size 〈250 μm were confined up to 26 MPa normal stress using a purpose-built sample holder. Slip velocities were between 0.01 and 3.4 m s−1, and total displacements between 1 and 4 m. At coseismic slip velocities ≥0.1 m s−1, the gouges were cut by reflective principal slip surfaces lined by polygonal grains 〈1 μm in size. The principal slip surfaces were flanked by 〈300 μm thick layers of dynamically recrystallized calcite (grain size 1–10 μm) containing well-defined shape- and crystallographic-preferred orientations. Dynamic recrystallization was accompanied by fault weakening and thermal decomposition of calcite to CO2 + CaO. The recrystallized calcite aggregates resemble those found along the principal slip surface of the Garam thrust, South Korea, exhumed from 〈5 km depth. We suggest that intense frictional heating along the experimental and natural principal slip surfaces resulted in localized dynamic recrystallization, a microstructure that may be diagnostic of seismic slip in the shallow crust.

Description: Published

Description: 63-66

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved

Description: This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan.

Description: Published

Description: 341-358

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.

Description: Published

Description: 1333–1361

Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In the context of natural disasters, education is a method to achieve mitigating actions in case of severe damage caused by different sources. In regions prone to seismic activity, education is only a part of what can be defined as "earthquake hazard preparedness". Nevertheless, it is a significant part indeed, as it involves the building of awareness, the establishment of a culture of prevention, and even the increase of safety when it acts on the process of making future decisions. Bearing this in mind, the UPStrat-MAFA (Urban disasters Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Faults) projects relied on education to promote risk mitigation. Throughout the two-year long project (from 2012 to 2013), we analysed the weight that seismic-related topics have in the current education system within four European countries prone to seismic hazards (Iceland, Italy, Portugal and Spain). Highlighting the major weaknesses we found, we developed strategies to cope with the urge of a culture of safety.

Description: Unpublished

Description: Istambul, Turkey

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: restricted

Description: Explosive volcanic eruptions are defined as the violent ejection of gas and hot fragments from a vent in the Earth's crust. Knowledge of ejection velocity is crucial for understanding and modeling relevant physical processes of an eruption, and yet direct measurements are still a difficult task with largely variable results. Here we apply pioneering high-speed imaging to measure the ejection velocity of pyroclasts from Strombolian explosive eruptions with an unparalleled temporal resolution. Measured supersonic velocities, up to 405 m/s, are twice higher than previously reported for such eruptions. Individual Strombolian explosions include multiple, sub-second-lasting ejection pulses characterized by an exponential decay of velocity. When fitted with an empirical model from shock-tube experiments literature, this decay allows constraining the length of the pressurized gas pockets responsible for the ejection pulses. These results directly impact eruption modeling and related hazard assessment, as well as the interpretation of geophysical signals from monitoring networks.

Description: INGV-DPC “V2” and “Paroxysm”, FIRB-MIUR “Research and Development of New Technologies for Protection and Defense of Territory from Natural Risks”, and FP7-PEOPLE-IEF-2008 – 235328 Projects

Description: Published

Description: L02301

Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: Education is a long-term defence against disasters that enables societies to better cope with seismic hazard in different ways. It can directly influence risk perception, skills and knowledge, and promote access to information and resources. The ‘Urban Disasters Prevention Strategies using Macroseismic Faults’ (UPStrat-MAFA) project investigated disaster mitigation strategies, including education. Risk reduction efforts implemented in schools were measured through surveys conducted mostly in Iceland, but also in major urban areas of Italy and Portugal that are all exposed to various levels of seismic hazard. The survey included an evaluation of how active local authorities were in the dissemination of information, and how this information was channelled to schools. Vulnerability mitigation for building interiors and efforts towards educating pupils towards a culture of safety were also measured. The study indicates that the authorities and scientists need to take actions for the introduction of hazard education into school curricula, and to provide better information on the hazard at the local level. However, above all, they owe children better tools towards a more efficient preparedness.

Description: Published

Description: 2105–2116

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The Vicano–Cimino Volcanic District (VCVD) is related to the post-orogenic magmatic activity of the peri- Tyrrhenian sector of Central Italy. The chemical and isotopic compositions of 333 water discharges and 25 gas emissions indicate the occurrence of two main sources: 1) cold Ca-HCO3 to Ca(Na, K)-HCO3 type waters from relatively shallow aquifers hosted in volcanic and sedimentary formations; and 2) thermal Ca-SO4(HCO3) type waters located in a deep CO2-pressurized reservoir, hosted in carbonate–evaporite rocks and separated from the shallow aquifers by thick sequences of low-permeability formations. Carbon dioxide is mainly produced by thermal metamorphic decarbonation within the deepest and hottest parts of the carbonate–evaporite reservoir (δ13C–CO2 from−3.1 to+2.2‰vs. VPDB), likely affected by a mantle-rooted CO2. ReleaseofCO2-rich gases from the deep aquifer into the overlying shallow aquifers produces high-CO2 springs and bubbling pools. The spatial distribution of thermal waters and CO2-rich cold discharges is strongly controlled by fractures and faults located in correspondencewith buried structural highs. Stable isotopes (δD and δ18O) suggest thatmeteoric water feeds both the shallowand deep reservoirs. The relatively lowR/Ra values (0.27–1.19) indicate that He ismainly deriving from a crustal source, with minor component from the mantle affected by crustal contamination related to the subduction of the Adriatic plate. Consistently, relatively high N2/Ar and N2/3He ratios and positive δ15N–N2 values (from0.91 to 5.7‰vs. air) characterize the VCVD gas discharges, suggesting the occurrence of a significant “excess” nitrogen. Isotopic compositions of CH4 (δ13C–CH4 and δD–CH4 values from−28.9 to−22.1‰vs. VPDB and from −176 to −138‰ vs. VSMOW, respectively), and composition of light alkanes are indicative of prevalent thermogenic CH4, although the occurrence of abiogenic CH4 production cannot be excluded. The δ34S–H2S values (from+9.3 to+11.4‰vs. VCDT) are consistentwith the hypothesis of H2S production fromthermogenic reduction of Triassic anhydrites. Gas geothermometry in the H2O–H2–Ar–H2S system suggests that the VCVD gases equilibrated in a liquid phase at redox conditions controlled by interactions of fluids with the local mineral assemblage at temperatures lower (b200 °C) than that andmeasured in deep (N2000 m) geothermalwells. This confirms that secondary processes, i.e. steam condensation, gas dissolution in shallow aquifers, re-equilibration at lower temperature, and microbial activity, significantly affect the chemistry of the uprising fluids. Thermal water chemistry supports the occurrence in this area of an anomalous heat flowthat, coupledwith the recent demographic growth, makes this site suitable for direct and indirect exploitation of the geothermal resource, in agreement with the preliminary surveys carried out in the 1970's–1990's for geothermal exploration purposes.

Description: Published

Description: 96-114

Description: 5A. Energia e georisorse

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: This paper shows the main outcomes of the Puyehue volcano (Chile) eruption monitoring by means of multisensor remote sensing instruments working from thermal infrared (TIR) to microwave (MW) spectral range. Thanks to the use of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the eruption evolution was observed, capturing the deformations of volcano edifice, the lava extension, as well as the information on ash and gas emitted. On the one hand, SAR Interferometry applied to ENVISAT-ASAR data allowed the estimation of the deformation occurred just before the beginning of the eruption and the subsequent deflation, with monthly sampling. On the other hand, with the combined use of the very high resolution (VHR) images taken by COSMO-SkyMed X-band SAR, and ENVISAT-ASAR ones, we were able to follow the lava deposition during the most intense phase of the eruption. Additionally, the joined exploitation of SAR and optical MODIS images allowed ash detection, also in cloudy sky conditions. Finally, the information gathered by both types of sensors allowed to highlight some volcanological features of the eruption and the relationship between surface deformation and the amount of ash and gases emitted by the volcano.

Description: Published

Description: 2786 - 2796

Description: 5V. Sorveglianza vulcanica ed emergenze

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: We report a new case of methane (CH4) of apparent abiotic origin in continental serpentinized ultramafic rocks. Multiple analytical techniques, on-site and in the laboratory, revealed methane and ethane degassing from hyperalkaline (pH 〉 11) Ca2þ eOH mineral waters in boreholes drilled in the Alter-do- Chão igneous intrusion, at Cabeço de Vide, in mainland Portugal. The C and H isotopic composition of CH4 (d13C w 20&; d2H: 283&) suggests a dominant abiotic origin, although minor thermogenic contributions cannot be excluded. Similarly, low methane-to-ethane ratios suggest a predominantly nonmicrobial source, consistent with previous microbiological data showing the lack of methanogenic archaea in these waters. Heavier hydrocarbons, CO2 and H2 are below detection limits. This case study confirms that CH4 from serpentinized ultramafic rocks can be transported by hyperalkaline fluids linked to deep circulation of meteoric waters. Maximum depth of Cabeço de Vide serpentinized rocks is less than 1 km, and present temperatures are likely lower than 50 C. Serpentinization and related gas formation may have occurred at any time during thermal evolution of the igneous intrusion, so gas formation temperature cannot be easily determined. This case is an opportunity to test thermometry provided by CH4 isotopologue analyses. The existence of methane in continental serpentinized igneous rocks is more widespread than previously thought and petroleum systems with similar serpentinized ultramafics in reservoir rocks may have traces of the observed 13C-enriched CH4

Description: Published

Description: 12-16

Description: 7A. Geofisica di esplorazione

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The characteristics of the geomagnetic field and its artificial components make the capability of reading and classifying large underwater cinematic sources (e.g. submarines) somewhat random. As an example the “ASW far detection procedure” is also affected by the induced magnetic field produced by man-made telluric currents. This could generate some dangerous false alarm. The problem is not an instrumental issue related to the instrument precision of the sensor (commercial magnetometers have precisions greater than the one required by the application) but a classical metrological matter that could be overcome with a correct measurement procedure. This moves the problem from technological to phenomenological aspects. By applying the C.A.I.MA.N. (Coastal Anti-Intruder MAgnetometric Network) experience, inter-nodal distances in the observation chain were calculated so as to correlate the noise and de-correlate the target signal (source type SU.S. "SUbmarine Standard"). By means of C.A.I.MA.N. protocols, targets signal contained in the “detection magnetogram” F(target) was isolated from F(noise+target) magnetogram using F(noise) (that includes also natural variations) as Time-Domain filter, and then submitted to standard LP procedure to increase the information capability. Finally, to overcome metrological problems related to the low incremental ratio [∂F/∂s]ds of the detected signal, we propose a power domain analysis of the detection magnetogram. Also without a dedicated technology, in a preliminary experiment for SU.S. detection the C.A.I.MA.N. anti-intruder system has been occasionally modified: the first results obtained in this study were found encouraging and further detailed investigations within this framework should be undertaken in a future study.

Description: Published

Description: IFA, Spain

Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio

Description: restricted

Description: Plagioclase crystal size distribution (CSD) has been investigated in a quartz-diorite body, in the leucosome of migmatites and in the melanosome of un-melted contact metamorphic rocks from Gennargentu Complex (Sardinia, Italy). During the crystallization of the dioritic magma, a variety of competing kinetic processes determine the evolution of the igneous microstructure, but the relative contribution of each process remains elusive. Our approach was aimed to study the plagioclase crystallization from a liquid (quartz-diorites and migmatite leucosomes), comparing it to a crystallization at subsolidus conditions. CSD indicates that plagioclase in the quartz-diorite nucleated and grew in a cooling system at a constant cooling rate, producing straight-line CSD in a diagram of ln of population density vs. size range. The plagioclase crystallization continued until the latent heat was available and the temperature was high enough to allow the plagioclase growing. This can occur only when a crystal is held at temperature close to its liquidus for a long period of time. Under these conditions, the plagioclase nucleation rate is zero, but growth rate is high for crystal larger than the critical size. This does not necessarily mean that the temperature was held constant, just that the undercooling remained small (Ostwald ripening process). The aggregated small crystals, due to their high surface energy per unit volume, to minimise energy in the system dissolved and“fed” the growth of larger crystals. This process occurs because small grains have a higher surface energy per unit volume than do larger grains. The crystallization temperature (~900 °C, 100 MPa) allows the formation of plagioclase as liquidus phase. From CSD measurements we calculated the different cooling ages for the different sample types

Description: Published

Description: 401-418

Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: restricted

Description: We analyzed sea level data from a set of tide gauge stations located in the central and western Mediter-ranean Sea, that recorded the tsunami generated by the Mw 6.8 Boumerdès earthquake striking the coastof Algeria on May 21, 2003. This earthquake caused more than 2200 victims and thousands of injured. Thecausative fault was located a few kilometers offshore and during the rupture a tsunami was triggered.Waves were felt along a large part of the western and northern Mediterranean coasts, and in the Balearicislands waves higher that 2 m were measured. In this paper we analyze a more complete tidal data set,with respect to previous studies, now consisting of 22 tidal stations located in Italy, France and Spain. Tocharacterize the change of the tidal signal at each station we used the Empirical Mode Decomposition(EMD). By means of this technique, which is suitable to analyze and to characterize the dynamical behav-ior of non-stationary time series, we provide a precise measurement of the arrival times and amplitudesat the tidal stations and identify how this tsunami affected the principal and long term tidal components.Our findings improve previous results for this earthquake, since they allow the detection of significantamplitude fluctuations associated with the tsunami in the majority of stations, including the farthestones.

Description: Published

Description: 39-49

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The kinetics of hydrated basaltic melts erupted during the present activity at Stromboli have been studied to estimate the growth and dissolution rate of plagioclase. Specifically, a high-K basalt composition (PST-9) has been studied to investigate magma and eruption dynamics at Stromboli volcano by combining crystallization kinetics of plagioclase and CSD measurements on natural samples from literature (Armienti et al., 2007; Fornaciai et al., 2009). A series of water-saturated decompression experiments over a range of final water pressure (Pf = 75–5 MPa) at constant temperature (1075 C) show that plagioclase is systematically present from 50 to 5 MPa at water saturated conditions. Moreover, these experiments show that anorthite (An) content decreases with decreasing PH2O, reaching the same composition as the natural plagioclase in Stromboli scoria at pressure below 20 MPa and that the plagioclase crystal fraction increases as the experimental conditions tend to lower final pressure. Plagioclase growth rate (GL) is observed to increase with undercooling for the Pf investigated during decompression experiments, except for the 75 MPa Pf serie that only has two samples with the presence of plagioclase crystals. The values of GL vary from 10 7 to 10 8 cm/s for Pf from 75 to 25 MPa, while at Pf from 10 to 5 MPa growth rates are approximately of 10 6 cm/s. A series of dissolution experiments at atmospheric pressure and over a range of temperature has been done for plagioclase (T range of 1220–1240 C). Dissolution rate (G-) for plagioclase (10 7 cm/s) tends to be slightly higher at higher temperature in the range of 1220–1240 C and appears to be time independent for the experimental durations investigated (10–30 h). These trends could be related to development of a diffusion-limited boundary layer adjacent to the dissolving crystal. By comparison of the experimental data on plagioclase composition, growth rates and dissolution in Stromboli basalt, it is possible to place the reservoir of the crystal-rich magma in the upper part (from 400 m to the surface) of the volcanic conduit. Kinetic data of the plagioclase, the most important phase of the shallow magmatic system of Stromboli, show that the magmatic processes are quite dynamic and in a relatively short time (hours or several days) the system can change considerably. Furthermore, the results from this work combined with observations on natural samples help to improve our knowledge of the magma plumbing system, of interactions between resident magma and new magmas, the dynamics of volcanic activity of Stromboli, and the time scales of magmatic processes that change in a few hours to 1 month.

Description: Published

Description: 135-151

Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The magnitude conversion problem, usually concerning the estimation of proxies of moment magnitude Mw from local (ML) and teleseismic (Ms and mb) mag- nitude estimates, was addressed by a number of recent articles. In most of them, the general orthogonal regression (GOR) method is employed; in place of the ordinary least squares (OLS), owing to the fact that the errors of local and teleseismic magnitudes are not negligible with respect to those of Mw. In the last two years, researchers proposed a modified GOR (MGOR) procedure that claimed to achieve unbiased estimates of Mw using an estimator of the true value of the independent variable (xt) in place of the observed value (Xobs) in regressed equations. In this article, we demonstrate both theo- retically and experimentally that (a) xt coincides on average with Xobs, (b) the proposed procedure to calculate xt is biased by the choice of using the OLS regression method to fit the linear relationship between xt and Xobs, and (c) the claimed better fit of MGOR proxies with observed data is due to the use of goodness-of-fit estimators that neglect the error of the independent variable. In particular, we show the regression method that best minimizes such estimators is the OLS, which assumes that the error of the independent variable is negligible. This, however, does not mean that the OLS is the better approach for computing conversion equations between different magnitudes; because, owing to the presence of errors of the independent variable, it is simply not applicable to mag- nitude conversion as well as the MGOR procedure.

Description: Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri–Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC)

Description: Published

Description: 1787-1796

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: INGV

Description: Published

Description: 4IT. Banche dati

Description: open

Description: A procedure for seismic risk assessment is applied to the Mt. Etna area (eastern Sicily, Italy) through assessment of urban system dysfunction following the occurrence of an earthquake.The tool used is based on the Disruption Index as a concept implemented in Simulator QuakeIST, which defines urban disruption following a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which is based on information about historical seismicity and seismogenic faults. The second element is computation of seismic impact on the building stock and infrastructure in the area considered. Information on urban-scale vulnerability was collected and a geographic information system was used to organise the data relating to buildings and network systems (e.g., building stock, schools, strategic structures, lifelines). The central idea underlying the definition of the Disruption Index is identification and evaluation of the impact on a target community through the physical elements that most contribute to severe disruption. The procedure applied in this study (i.e., software and data) constitutes a very useful operational tool to drive the development of strategies to minimise risks from earthquakes.

Description: Published

Description: 1979–2008

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved

Description: In this paper we present a morphotectonic study of the Paganica–San Demetrio fault system (PSDFS) responsible for the Mw6.1 April 6, 2009 earthquake (L'Aquila, Central Italy). The discrepancy observed between the length of the seismologic–geodetic modeled fault, the limited size of the primary coseismic surface ruptures and the significant morphological expression of the PSDFS stimulated a debate about the maximum rupture length of the PSDFS and its capability to generate larger magnitude events. To image the PSDFS long-term morphological expression and define its surface geometrical arrangement (length, number of fault splays and boundaries), we took advantage of a high-resolution airborne LiDAR dataset. LiDAR topography substantially increased our confidence in detecting even subtle tectonic-controlled morphologies. We define the PSDFS as a ~ 19 km-long fault system that displays a complex structural setting characterized by two different sectors: 1) the Paganica sector to the NW, with a narrow deformation zone, and 2) the San Demetrio sector to SE, where the strain is accommodated by several fault-splays dissecting a wider Quaternary basin. We also defined a first-order hierarchy among the numerous fault splays across the PSDFS. The long-term geomorphic expression of the PSDFS suggests that it ruptured also involving the whole 19 km-long structure besides rupturing only small sections, as it occurred in 2009. This suggests a variable slip behavior. Empirical relations applied to this hypothesis allow up to M 6.6 earthquakes along the PSDFS. These results have a critical impact on the seismic hazard assessment of the area when compared with a M 6.1 event as the 2009.

Description: Published

Description: 108-121

Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Uncertainties in modelling volcanic hazards are often amplified in geographically large systems and in volcanoes which have a diverse eruption history that comprises variable eruption compositions and styles from different vent locations. The large ~ 700 km2 Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC) is a large silicic caldera complex in a geodynamic region of New Zealand which has displayed a range of eruption styles and compositions over its current phase of activity (26 ka - present), including one basaltic maar-forming eruption, one basaltic Plinian eruption, and nine rhyolitic Plinian eruptions. All three of these eruption styles have occurred within the past 3.5 ky, and any of these styles could occur in the event of a future eruption. The location of a future eruption is also unknown. Future vents could potentially open in one of three different possible areas of the OVC: the Tarawera linear vent zone (LVZ) (5 eruptions over the past 26 ky), the Haroharo LVZ (5 eruptions over the past 26 ky), or outside of these LVZs (1 eruption over the past 26 ky). A future rhyolitic or basaltic Plinian eruption from the OVC is likely to generate widespread tephra fall in loads that will cause significant disruption and socio- economic impacts throughout the surrounding region. Past OVC tephra studies have focused on evaluating hazard from a rhyolitic Plinian eruption at select vent locations in the OVC's Tarawera LVZ. Here, we expand upon these past studies by evaluating tephra hazard for all possible OVC eruption vent areas and for both rhyolitic and basaltic Plinian eruption styles, and exploring how these parameters influence tephra hazard forecasts. Probabilistic volcanic hazard model BET_VH and advection-diffusion tephra hazard model TEPHRA2 were used to assess the hazard of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra from both basaltic Plinian and rhyolitic Plinian eruption styles, occurring from within the Tarawera LVZ, the Haroharo LVZ, and other potential vent areas within the caldera. We present the results of these analyses as a first-order tephra hazard assessment for the entire OVC. Our results highlight the importance of considering all the potential vent locations of a volcanic system, in order to capture the full eruption catalogue in analyses (e.g., 11 eruptions over 26 ky for the OVC, versus only 5 eruptions over 26 ky for the Tarawera LVZ), as well as the full potential distribution of tephra hazard. Although the Tarawera LVZ has been prominently discussed in studies of OVC hazard because of is recent activity (1886 and ~1315 AD), we find that, in the event of future eruption, the likelihood of a vent opening within the Haroharo LVZ (last eruption 5.6 ka) is equivalent (〈 1% difference) to that for the Tarawera LVZ (31.8% compared to 32.5%). We also find that an eruption from within the Haroharo LVZ presents a relatively higher hazard to several localities, such as the town of Kawerau, where the average absolute probability of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra is 1.3 times greater than for an eruption from within the Tarawera LVZ. While the absolute probabilities of accumulating ≥ 10 kg m-2 of tephra in the next one year from a basaltic Plinian eruption are on average 7.2 times lower than for a rhyolitic Plinian eruption throughout the surrounding region, our results suggest that the hazard posed by a basaltic Plinian eruption does contribute to the overall OVC tephra hazard, raising absolute probabilities for the entire OVC by an order of 0.14, which may have implications when considering sensitive decision-making thresholds.

Description: Published

Description: 38

Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In this study, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios in a Lateglacial to Holocene stalagmite (CC26) from Corchia Cave (central Italy) are compared with stable isotope data to define palaeohydrological changes. For most of the record, the trace element ratios show small absolute variability but similar patterns, which are also consistent with stable isotope variations. Higher trace element-to-calcium values are interpreted as responses to decreasing moisture, inducing changes in the residence time of percolation, producing prior calcite precipitation and/or variations in the hydrological routing. Statistically meaningful levels of covariability were determined using anomalies of Mg/Ca, d18O and d13C. Combining these three time series into a single ‘palaeomoisture-trend’ parameter, we highlight several events of reduced moisture (ca. 8.9–8.4, 6.2, 4.2, 3.1 and 2.0 ka), a humid period between ca. 7.9 and 8.3 ka and other shorter-term wet events at ca. 5.8, 5.3 and 3.7 ka. Most of these events can be correlated with climate changes inferred from other regional studies. For both extremities of the record (i.e. before ca. 12.4 ka and after ca. 0.5 ka) Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca are anti-correlated and show the greatest amplitude of values, a likely explanation for which involves aragonite and/or gypsum precipitation (the latter derived from pyrite oxidation) above the CC26 drip point.

Description: Published

Description: 381–392

Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: We provide a complete description of the characteristics of excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in the Lake Van region (eastern Turkey) using a data set that includes three-component seismograms from the 23 October 2011 Mw 7.1 Van earthquake, as well as its aftershocks. Regional attenuation and source scaling are parameterized to describe the observed ground motions as a function of distance, frequency, and magnitude. Peak ground velocities are measured in selected narrow frequency bands from 0.25 to 12.5 Hz; observed peaks are regressed to define a piecewise linear regional attenu- ation function, a set of excitation terms, and a set of site response terms. Results are modeled through random vibration theory (see Cartwright and Longuet-Higgins, 1956). In the log–log space, the regional crustal attenuation is modeled with a bilinear geo- metrical spreading g r characterized by a crossover distance at 40 km: g r ∝ r^−1 fits our results at short distances (r 〈 40 km), whereas g r ∝ r^−0.3 is better at larger distances (40 〈 r 〈 200 km). A frequency-dependent quality factor, Q f =100( f/fref)^ 0:43 (in which fref 1.0 Hz), is coupled to the geometrical spreading. Because of the inherent trade-off of the excitation/attenuation parameters (Δσ and κ), their specific values strongly depend on the choice made for the stress drop of the smaller earthquakes. After choosing a Brune stress drop ΔσBrune 4 MPa at Mw 3:5, we were able to define (1) an effective high frequency, distance- and mag- nitude-independent roll-off spectral parameter, κeff = 0:03 s and (2) a size-dependent stress-drop parameter, which increases with moment magnitude, from ΔσBrune 4 MPa at Mw 3.5 to ΔσBrune 20 MPa at Mw 7.1. The set of parameters mentioned here may be used in order to predict the earthquake-induced ground motions expected from future earthquakes in the region surrounding Lake Van.

Description: Published

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: With the aim to improve volcaniclastic flows hazard zonation and risk mitigation in volcanic areas, this work presents a GIS-based study on the Sorrentina Peninsula, located southwest of the main Neapolitan volcanoes (Ischia, Procida, Campi Flegrei, and Somma-Vesuvius; Campanian Plain, Southern Italy). This area has been heavily affected by historical events with more than 200 volcani - clastic flows recorded in the last 500 years. The study here proposed combines different information, including morphometry, geology, volcanology and land use for building a susceptibility index (named VFSI) able to rank the drainage basins potentially prone to generate volcaniclastic flows. The resulting susceptibility map classifies 488 drainage basins into three different classes (low, moderate and high)over an area of about 280 km2. The proposed method allows the rapid ranking of the different drainage basins, and is propaedeutic to detailed investigation on single basins for individuating areas more prone to colluvial cover failure and associated volumes of available material for volcaniclastic flow generation.

Description: Published

Description: 394-404

Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi

Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: The seismological community is currently developing operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) systems that aim to estimate, based on continuous ground motion recording by seismic networks, the rates of events exceeding a certain magnitude threshold in an area of interest and in a short-period of time (days to weeks); i.e., the seismicity. OEF may be possibly used for short-term seismic risk management in regions affected by seismic swarms only if its results may be the input to compute, in a probabilistically sound manner, consequence-based risk metrics. The present paper reports the investigation about feasibility of short-term risk assessment, or operational earthquake loss forecasting (OELF), in Italy. The approach is that of performance-based earthquake engineering, where the loss rates are computed by means of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. The risk is expressed in terms of individual and regional measures, which are based on short-term macroseismic intensity, or ground motion intensity, hazard. The vulnerability of the built environment relies on damage probability matrices empirically calibrated for Italian structural classes, and exposure data in terms of buildings per vulnerability class and occupants per building typology. All vulnerability and exposure data are at the municipality scale. The procedure set-up, which is virtually independent on the seismological model used, is implemented in an experimental OELF system, which continuously process OEF information to produce weekly nationwide risk maps. This is illustrated by a retrospective application to the 2012 Pollino (southern Italy) seismic sequence, which provides insights on the capabilities of the system and on the impact, on short-term risk assessment, of the methodology currently used for OEF in Italy.

Description: Published

Description: 2286-2298

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved

Description: The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models

Description: Published

Description: 1154–1172

Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: In the period 2011 June–October, a tectonic swarm of nearly 1222 earthquakes occurred in the Messenia prefecture at the southwestern region of the Peloponnese Peninsula. The swarm happened in the Messenia’s Upper Quaternary basin, 25 km NW of the city of Kalamata, and migrated from NNW towards SSE. The largest earthquakes occurred in 2011 August 14 (Mw = 4.8), September 14 (Mw = 4.6) and October 10 (Mw = 4.7), caused moderate structural damages mainly in old houses in four villages and produced particular unrest to the local population. We have investigated the monthly migration of the swarm using Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR), presenting for the first time a very close look at the deformation evolution that may reveal an aseismic slip component of the total movement. The geodetically derived slip distribution for the first 4 months revealed that slip migrated laterally along strike (north to south) and vertically from a deep portion, at ∼2.8 km depth, to a shallow portion, at less than 0.5 km, of the fault plane, and concluded its migration towards the surface with a very shallow Mw 4.7 event of 2011 October 10 surprisingly detected by DInSAR.

Description: Published

Description: 1302–1309

Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: For a better understanding of the final solidification history of eruptions at Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy), we have investigated cation redistributions at the interface between sub-millimetre-sized clinopyroxene and titanomagnetite crystal rims and coexisting melts. The studied products were scoria clasts from lava fountains and rock samples from pahoehoe and aa lava flows. Our data indicate that scoria clasts from lava fountaining were rapidly quenched at the contact with the atmosphere, preserving the original crystal textures and compositions inherited during magma dynamics within the plumbing system. Kinetics and energetics of crystallization were instantaneously frozen-in and post-eruptive effects on mineral chemistry were negligible. The nearequilibrium compositions of clinopyroxene and titanomagnetite indicate that lava fountain episodes were supplied by high-temperature, H2O-rich magmas ascending with velocities of 0.01–0.31 m/s. In contrast, magmas feeding lava flow eruptions underwent a more complex solidification history where the final stage of the crystal growth was mostly influenced by volatile loss and heat dissipation at syn- and post-eruptive conditions. Due to kinetic effects associated with magma undercooling, clinopyroxenes and titanomagnetites formed by crystal attachment and agglomeration mechanisms leading to intricate intergrowth textures. The final compositions of these minerals testify to closure temperatures and melt–water concentrations remarkably lower than those estimated for lava fountains. Kinetically-controlled cation redistributions at the crystal–melt interface suggest that the solidification of magma was driven by degassing and cooling processes proceeding from the uppermost part of the volcanic conduit to the surface.

Description: European Observing System Infrastructure Project (EPOS) Grant agreement no. 262229

Description: Published

Description: 45–54

Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved

Description: Seismic structural risk analysis of critical facilities may require nonlinear dynamic analysis for which record selection is one of the key issues. Notwithstanding the increasing availability of database of strong-motion records, it may be hard to find accelerograms that fit a specific scenario (e.g., in terms of magnitude and distance) resulting from hazard assessment at the site of interest. A possible, alternative, approach can be the use of artificial and/or simulated ground motion in lieu of real records. Their employment requires systematic engineering validation in terms of structural response and/or seismic risk. Prediction equations for peak and cyclic inelastic single degree of freedom systems’ response, based on Italian accelerometric data, are discussed in this study as a possible benchmark, alongside real record counterparts, for the validation of synthetic records. Even if multiple events would be in principle required, an extremely preliminary validation is carried out considering only four simulated records of the 1980 Irpinia (southern Italy) Mw 6.9 earthquake. Simulated records are obtained through a broadband hybrid integral-composite technique. Results show how this simulation method may lead to generally acceptable results. It is also emphasized how this kind of validation may provide additional results with respect to classical signal-to-signal comparison of real and simulated records.

Description: Published

Description: 85-101

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: On 12 May 2008, a destructive M8.0 earthquake struck Wenchuan County (31.0 N, 103.4E) in the Longmenshan fault zone of southwestern China. Five years later, on 20 April 2013, another terrible M7.0 earthquake struck Lushan County (30.3 N, 103.0 E) in the same fault area, only 87 km away from the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake. In this paper, an integrated wavelet analysis methodology is proposed to detect and diagnose ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies related to seismic activities. Analytic wavelet transform is used to detect ionospheric perturbations, and then cross-wavelet analysis is used to diagnose ionospheric anomalies by gaining further insights into the dynamic relationship between the anomaly variability of ionospheric TEC and geomagnetic indices for the same set of observations. The results show that a significant ionospheric disturbance occurred on 9 May 2008 above the forthcoming epicenter, 3 days prior to the Wenchuan earthquake. However,we did not observe an ionospheric anomaly over the epicenter of the Ya’an earthquake during the 1 month period before the shock. Finally, we discuss the possible interpretations of the different seismo-ionospheric effects for the two similar earthquakes.

Description: National Important Basic Research Project (Grant No. 2011CB707102), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41104104), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. N120801001)

Description: Published

Description: 187-196

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: In this paperwe trace the impact of the 1669 eruption and the 1693 earthquakes in eastern Sicily, their effects on the people living in the Etna region and, more particularly, in the city of Catania and its hinterland. The former event was the largest historic eruption of Etna, having a flow field with an area of ca. 40 km2 and a maximum flow length of ca. 17 km, whereas the latter – occurring only 24 years later – killed between 11,000 and 20,000 of Catania’s estimated 20–27,000 inhabitants, plus many more in smaller settlements. Using a combination of field-based research, contemporary accounts and archival sources, the authors are able to drawa number of conclusions. First, the 1669 eruption, although it did not kill or injure, was economically the most devastating of historical eruptions. Although it affected a limited area, inundation by lava meant that landwas effectively sterilized for centuries and, in a pre-industrial agriculturally-based economy, recovery could not occur quicklywithout outside assistance from the State. Indeed some of the worst affected municipalities (i.e. Comuni) were only able to support populations that were much reduced in size. Secondly, much of the damage caused to buildings by volcanic earthquakes was effectively masked, becausemost of the settlements affectedwere quickly covered by lava flows. The vulnerability to volcanic earthquakes of traditionally constructed buildings has, however, remained a serious example of un-ameliorated risk exposure through to the present day. A third conclusion is that the 1693 earthquakes, although more serious with respect to the number of people and the area they affected in terms of mortality, morbidity and their immediate economic impact, saw a rapid and sustained recovery. Thiswas due in part to the fact that, in contrast to lava flows, an earthquake does not sterilize land, but more significant was the reduction in population numberswhich served both to release and concentrate funds for investment in recovery. By the close of the eighteenth century Cataniawas knownthroughout Europe for the quality of its townscape and buildings, many of which were constructed in the then fashionable (and expensive) baroque style. Finally, the 1669 and 1693 disasters were seized on by the authorities as opportunities to plan new and re-build old settlementswith improved infrastructure to facilitate economic growth. By the nineteenth centurymany of the lessons had been largely forgotten and there were many examples of: poor seismic design of individual buildings; and the location of newresidential and commercial areas that placed more people at greater risk fromfuture extreme events. Indeed it is only recently have new regulations been enacted to prevent the construction of buildings in the vicinity of active faults and to control development in other hazardous zones.

Description: Published

Description: 25-40

Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Volcanic ash clouds produced by explosive eruptions represent a strong problem for civil aviation, road transportation and other human activities. Since Etna volcano produced in the last 35 years more the 200 explosive eruptions of small and medium size. The INGV, liable for its volcano monitoring, developed since 2006 a specific system for forecasting and monitoring Etna’s volcanic ash plumes in collaboration with several national and international institutions. Between 12 January 2011 and 31 December 2013 Etna produced forty-six basaltic lava fountains. Every paroxysm produced an eruption column ranging from a few up to eleven kilometers of height above sea level. The ash cloud contaminated the controlled airspace (CTR) of Catania and Reggio Calabria airports and caused tephra fallout on eastern Sicily sometime disrupting the operations of these airports. In order to give prompt and detailed warnings to the Aviation and Civil Protection authorities, ash plumes monitoring at Osservatorio Etneo, the INGV department in Catania, is carried out using multispectral (from visible to infrared) satellite and ground-based video-surveillance images; seismic and infrasound signals processed in real-time, a Doppler RADAR (Voldorad IIB) able to detect the eruption column in all weather conditions and a LIDAR (AMPLE) for retrieving backscattering and depolarization values of the ash clouds. Forecasting is performed running tephra dispersal models using weather forecast data, and then plotting results on maps published on a dedicated website. 24/7 Control Room operators were able to timely nform Aviation and Civil Protection operators for an effective aviation safety management. A variety of multidisciplinary activities are planned in the MED-SUV project with reference to volcanic ash observations and studies. These include: 1) physical and analogue laboratory experiments on ash dispersal and aggregation; 2) integration of satellite data (e.g. METEOSAT, MODIS) and ground- based measurements (e.g., RADAR, LIDAR) of Etna’s volcanic plumes to quantify mass eruption rate, grain-size distribution at source, and ash cloud concentration; 3) improvement of tools and automatic procedures for the short-term forecasting of volcanic ash dispersal by adopting a multi-model and multi-scenario approach; 4) development of short-term forecasting tools able to use direct measurements of the plume and ash cloud in almost real time (now-casting); 5) development of long-term probabilistic ash fallout maps at the supersite volcanoes.

Description: Published

Description: Vienna, Austria

Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente

Description: open

Description: A detailed survey of morphological and biological markers of paleo-shorelines has been carried out alongthe coastal sector of Mt. Etna volcano (eastern Sicily, Italy), in order to better define causes and timing ofvertical deformation. We have mapped markers of raised Holocene shorelines, which are represented bybeach rocks, wave-cut platforms, balanid, vermetid and algal rims. The timing of coastal uplift has beendetermined by radiocarbon dating of shells collected from the raised paleo-shorelines and, to correctlyassess the total amount of tectonic uplift of the coast during the Late Holocene, we have compared theelevation-age data of sampled shells to the local curve of Holocene sea-level rise. Taking into accountthe nominal elevation of the associated paleo-shorelines, an uplift rate of 2.5–3.0 mm/year has beenestimated for the last 6–7 ka. This general process of uplifting is only locally interrupted by subsidencerelated to flank sliding of the volcanic edifice, measured at docks and other manmade structures, and byacceleration along the hinge of an active anticline and at the footwall of an active fault. Based on this newdata we suggest more precise time–space constraints for the dynamics of the lower eastern flank of Mt.Etna volcano.

Description: Published

Description: 194-203

Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Viscosity (η), glass transition (Tg) and heat capacity (Cp) of Etna trachybasalt and Fondo Riccio latite (Phlegrean Fields, Italy)were determined at lowand high temperatures for dry, hydrous and CO2 bearing samples.High temperature experiments have been performed in the range of 1499 to 1700 K by concentric cylindermeasurements, while low temperature experiments were carried out in the interval between 633 and 1093 K using the micropenetration technique. Glass transition temperature and glassy and liquid heat capacitieswere investigated using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) up to 955 K. The H2O content in themelts ranged from nominally dry to 6.32 wt.%, while CO2 ranged from 229 to 1907 ppm. We combined low- and high-temperature viscosities and parameterized them by the use of a modified Vogel– Fulcher–Tamman equation,which accommodates the non-Arrhenian temperature dependence ofmelt viscosity. Experimental measurements showthat melt viscosity decreaseswith increasing temperature and water and CO2 contents. For latitic samples at 893 K, the introduction of CO2 (up to 732 ppm) decreases the liquid viscosity up to one order of magnitude with respect to the measured viscosity for H2O-bearing liquid. Moreover, the results of calorimetric measurements indicate that the glass transition temperature decreaseswith increasing volatile content (H2O+CO2). The glass transition temperature decreases by about 25 K by adding up to 1907 ppmof CO2 in the trachybasaltic samples. No appreciable effect on glassy [Cpg (Tg)] and liquid (Cpliq) heat capacities was observed with the addition of water and CO2. Structural and volcanological implications (i.e. volatile speciation and melt fragility) for water and CO2 dissolution in silicate melts are discussed in light of the presented results.

Description: Published

Description: 72-86

Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved

Description: In the context of natural disasters, education is a method to achieve mitigating actions in case of severe damage caused by different sources.In regions prone to seismic activity, education is only a part of what can be defined as "earthquake hazard preparedness". Nevertheless, it is a significant part indeed, as it involves the building of awareness, the establishment of a culture of prevention, and even the increase of safety when it acts on the process of making future decisions. Bearing this in mind, the UPStrat-MAFA (Urban disasters Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Faults) projects relied on education to promote risk mitigation.Throughout the two-year long project (from 2012 to 2013), we analysed the weight that seismic-related topics have in the current education system within three European countries prone to seismic hazards. Highlighting the major weaknesses we found, we developed strategies to cope with the urge of a culture of safety. We are aware that children have a great potential as: (1) they are capable to learn behaviours that will be recalled in case of danger, (2) they are our best choice in terms of spreading culture of safety and best practices through a domino-effect (Cardona 2007; Stoltman et al. 2007; Wisner 2006; Kuhlicke et al. 2011), and (3) they represent citizens who will play a role in the future decision­making process. Therefore, we focussed on compulsory education to give a ground level evaluation of what is accessible to pupils and students. Assessments of the educational curricula on natural hazards and accessibility to risk reduction information have highlighted how schools worldwide are greatly unprepared in their natural hazards education (Komac et al., 2013). The study revealed that seismology-related topics are not mandatory subjects, while state education plans might not provide efficient raise in awareness because of unconscious learning underestimation. Children do not approach hazard education at an early age, namely when non-cognitive side of awareness has a better chance to be imprinted in mind. Conversely, valuable results may be lost by not teaching in late years of compulsory education, allowing in-depth understanding of the subject. Except for Iceland, Natural Hazards and related Earth-Science subjects become part of science education only at late age and only if students have chosen science curricula. In conclusions, schools and the need of a more efficient education in seismic and volcanic hazards do not seem to be tuned up. Moving from this evidence, we took actions for earthquake hazard education encompassing various tools that might be attractive for children. Hands-on and learn-by-playing approaches are among the best choices to raise children interests. Accordingly, we developed a video-game, which revealed to be a successful tool. This educational game provides a very useful way to help students gain knowledge and preparedness awareness, develop life-skills and positive safe habits in all ages.The game is available online for free. We have also observed that people often lack understanding or motivation to absorb information provided by media, concerning earthquake hazard and risk. Since education is not just schooling and is not only meant to reach children, we prepared five audio-video products addressed to a broad audience, from children to adults. Research has shown that the memory of a disaster remains preserved in the social sphere only for a certain period of time, unless it is kept vivid in the minds of people, or they are reminded by the provision of information (e.g., media, web) and the socially active preservation of the memory (Wisner, 2006; Biernacki et al., 2008; Komac, 2009; Komac et al., 2013).In the videos produced in the framework of the UPStrat-MAFA project, public perception and interviews with experts are presented to keep vivid the memory of disasters that might hit lands prone to earthquake hazards. An educational shake table is a versatile tool for educational purposes. It's a good tool to describe and investigate how forces act, as also to identify some of the factors that help make buildings earthquake­ proof including cross bracing and tuned mass dampers. Instituto Superior Tecnico adapted its digital educational small shake table to demonstrate in classes the dynamic performance of buildings/structures.

Description: Published

Description: Istanbul, Turkey

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: open

Description: We gratefully acknowledge the support of Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA. Many thanks go to Peter Kohler for providing data and to Narelle van der Wel for her help with English in this paper.

Description: The present manuscript compares Marine Iso- tope Stage 5 (MIS 5, 125–115 kyr BP) and MIS 7 (236– 229 kyr BP) with the aim to investigate the origin of the difference in ice-sheet growth over the Northern Hemi- sphere high latitudes between these last two inceptions. Our approach combines a low resolution coupled atmosphere– ocean–sea-ice general circulation model and a 3-D thermo- mechanical ice-sheet model to simulate the state of the ice sheets associated with the inception climate states of MIS 5 and MIS 7. Our results show that external forcing (orbitals and GHG) and sea-ice albedo feedbacks are the main fac- tors responsible for the difference in the land-ice initial state between MIS 5 and MIS 7 and that our cold climate model bias impacts more during a cold inception, such as MIS 7, than during a warm inception, such as MIS 5. In addition, if proper ice-elevation and albedo feedbacks are not taken into consideration, the evolution towards glacial inception is hardly simulated, especially for MIS 7. Finally, results high- light that while simulated ice volumes for MIS 5 glacial in- ception almost fit with paleo-reconstructions, the lack of pre- cipitation over high latitudes, identified as a bias of our cli- mate model, does not allow for a proper simulation of MIS 7 glacial inception.

Description: Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA.

Description: Published

Description: 269–291

Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: First of all we thank Hilgen and co-authors for their interest in our manuscript. Here we provide an answer to their comment in order to prove the robustness of our conclusions, despite the tuning process that we performed on the original MEDSTACK from Lourens et al. (2004) and Wang et al. (2010).

Description: Published

Description: 25-26

Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: The result of preventive measures within school buildings not only lies in safer environment for school children, but also raises awareness among them. One of the tasks of the UPStrat-MAFA members was to evaluate the informal education by measuring the information on risk reduction (both preventive measures and preparedness) provided by local responsible authorities, used and elaborated in schools. A questionnaire was developed by task members and then tested in Hveragerdi, an Icelandic town included in the UPStrat-MAFA study area. After finalizing the questions, the survey was run online. School directors were contacted by email; they were asked to participate and to click a link at the end of the message to open up the questionnaire. Each participant country ran the survey in its native language. In total, the questions were ten, four of which were the so called filter questions, i.e. dichotomous questions asked to determine if it is relevant for responders to answer the subsequent question. The analysis of the survey data provides valuable information about the state of informal education on risk reduction and awareness programs in schools and health institutions.In particular, the paper illustrates the results collected in Iceland, Italy and Portugal and discusses them taking into account some of the basic questions. The survey covered both pre- and elementary school. The responders were e.g. asked whether: i) local authorities had provided them information on seismic risk prevention and how such information was processed; ii) loose objects were securely attached to walls in order to prevent them from falling, giving insights into how risk averse the institutions are. Results show that the local authorities in Iceland had disseminated information on preventive measures to 43% of the institutions.The test survey in Hveragerdi displayed that it more often depends on the institutions' management than the local authorities whether or not such information is accessible within the institutions. Printed material is the most common source. 33% of the institutions had received guidelines printed by the Icelandic Civil Defence Department that display how to behave in case of earth.quakes. 200/o had accessed the information on the web. The family emergency plan provided by the department and made accessible on the web could be made better use of as an educational tool. 57% of the Icelandic institutions had made an effort to prevent objects to fall within the buildings in case of earthquakes. In Italy, local authorities on risk prevention had informed 37% of the institutions. Information is disseminated through guidelines, lectures, CDs or training courses from National Civil Protection. Moreover, the information given to schools mostly explains how to behave in case of an earthquake. 41% of the Italian institutions had made an effort to prevent objects to fall within the buildings in case of earthquakes. In Portugal, Lisbon municipality distributed to schools about 30% of information concerning seismic risk prevention measures. This information was disseminated through guidelines, lectures, CDs or training courses from National Civil Protection. 29% of the Portuguese institutions had made efforts to prevent objects to fall within the buildings in case of earthquakes. The comparison of the results obtained shows that the emphasis on having Emergency Plans to rely on in case of disaster is almost equal within the three countries. In Italy 70% of schools have emergency plans compared to 69% in Portugal and 68% in Iceland. Differences between Icelandic and Italian schools become salient with regard to Earthquake Drills offered and whether special actions were taken toward children education on the topic. In Italy, 70% of school had offered drills compared to 24% in Iceland; in addition, 67% of Italian schools had taken actions towards education on the topic compared to 23% in Iceland. Portugal is closer to Italy with regard to drills offered in 66% of the schools, and 49% of them had taken special action towards children education on the topic. It is important to emphasize that in Portugal fire drills are much more common than earthquake drills, reflecting a "low safety culture" due to insufficient level of awareness of seismic risk. Iceland is slightly better prepared (than in previous mentioned measures) with regard to how many schools had received "Information from Local Responsible Authorities" about preventive measure related with seismic risk. 47% oflcelandic schools had received such information compared to 37% in Italy and 31% in Portugal. Schools' earthquake preparedness aiming at reducing ''Non-structural Hazard" differs between the countries, especially between Iceland and Portugal. 57% of Icelandic schools had attached loose objects to prevent them from falling in case of an earthquake, compared to 29% in Portugal and 41% in Italy. The greatest difference becomes salient in the answer to the question whether the schools had "Available Equipment" to use in case of earthquakes. None of the Italian schools reported available equipment; only 10% of the Icelandic schools got it, while 86% of Portuguese schools had such equipment. The dominant type of available equipment reported on in Portugal was frre extinguishers (answers "others"). Supposing that in the other two countries fire extinguishers were not perceived as useful in case of earthquake, we might conclude that awareness of the threat of fire is much stronger in Portugal than in Italy and Iceland.

Description: Published

Description: Istanbul, Turkey

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: open

Description: Although human behavior is the crucial factor in the degree of vulnerability and the likelihood of disasters taking place, preparedness and prevention programs are not mandatory in all countries around the world. Within the framework of UPStrat-MAFA (Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic FAults), we have defined the disaster prevention strategies based on education management information and actions taken in Iceland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy. A detailed comparative study shows that compulsory school in these four participating countries is greatly unprepared with regard to hazard education, and these results are in line with worldwide studies. Moreover, when hazards are addressed, this is not done at an early age, which results in a missed chance to intervene in the noncognitive side of awareness, which decreases at later ages. To comply with the urge to take actions towards training and education at an early age, we used hands-on tools and learn-by-playing approaches in an informal learning environment. To reach the older population, the audio- visual media appears to be the best and lowest cost alternative to promote risk perception, awareness and education.

Description: Published

Description: 77-80

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: restricted

Description: Explosive events, lava-fountains and effusions frequently characterize eruptive activity at Etna. Consequently, the town of Catania and many local municipalities are potentially exposed to ash fallout and lava flows. Besides volcanic hazard, earthquakes and landslides affect this volcanic region as well. The Task 5.1 of the European project "MED-SUV'' (Grant Agreement n°. 308665) deals with the observation of these threatening phenomena from space and ground and their characterization and understanding. The Task encompasses six subtasks, which focus on and analyze the aforementioned hazards in terms of their characteristics, duration and spatial dimension: • Test cases for significant eruptive events have been defined by the subtask 5.1.1. The time span from 2005 to 2011 was chosen for its wealth of eruptive episodes and their well-documented evolution; • The mapping of eruptive products from satellite data will allow us the improvement of the interpretation and modeling of the mechanisms of cone-forming and lava flow emplacement. This topic is developed in the subtask 5.1.2; • Multidisciplinary experiments are planned in the subtask 5.1.3, and will be carried out at the North­ East Crater in July 2014; • Another important deliverable is given by tools of data mining proposed by the subtask 5.1.4. These tools will be available for the analysis of parameters of whatever nature (e.g., geochemical, geophysical), providing they are processed in numerical format; • The subtask 5.1.5 provides a characterization of the volcanic plume and eruptive products, with an integrated analysis of atmospheric, satellite and ground-based measurements, which play an important role in ash-cloud dispersal models; • The sub 5.1.6 focuses on landslide susceptibility analysis and zoning. The goal will be to highlight the regional distribution of potentially unstable slopes based on a detailed study of the factors responsible for landslides.

Description: Published

Description: Nicolosi (Catania), Italy

Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi

Description: open

Description: Along the ∼500km long Sicily–Calabria segment of the Nubia–Eurasia plate boundary GPS data highlight a complex, and debated, kinematic pattern. We focus on eastern Sicily, where the style of crustal deformation rapidly changes in the space of few tens of kilometers. In southeastern Sicily, struck by the 1693MW∼7.4earthquake, GPS measurements highlight a steep velocity gradient, with ∼2.4mm/yr of ∼N–S shortening in ∼10km, changing to broader extension (∼3mm/yr in ∼60km) in northern Sicily and shortening in the southern Tyrrhenian Sea. GPS data and kinematic elastic block models highlight a complex fragmentation of the Sicilian domain into three tectonic blocks, which move independently from Nubia, describing an overall clockwise rotation of this crustal domain with respect to Eurasia. Shortening in southeastern Sicily is associated witha system of high-angle reverse faults resulting from tectonic inversion of extensional faults at the northern tip of the Hyblean plateau. Extension in northern Sicily occurs on a broader deformation belt, developed on the former Kumeta–Alcantara line, extending west of Mount Etna toward the southwestern Tyrrhenian Sea, accommodating the faster rotation of the northeastern Sicily block with respect to central Sicily. Although the seismic potential of inland faults is not negligible, our results strengthen the hypothesis that the Malta escarpment is the likely source of the large 1693 earthquake and tsunami. The observed kinematics appears only subordinately driven by the Nubia–Eurasia convergence and the dynamics of the Mediterranean subduction system is likely playing a major role in governing block motions and active tectonics in Sicily.

Description: Published

Description: 77-88

Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The Disruption Index is used here for the assessment of urban disruption in the Mt. Etna area after a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which is based on information about the historical seismicity and seismogenic faults. The second element is the computation of the seismic impact on the building stock and infrastructure in the region considered. Information on urban-scale vulnerability was collected and a geographic information system was used to organize the data relating to buildings and network systems (e. g., typologies, schools, strategic structures, lifelines). The central idea underlying the definition of the Disruption Index is the identification and evaluation of the impacts on a target community, considering the physical elements that contribute most to the severe disruption. The results of this study are therefore very useful for earthquake preparedness planning and for the development of strategies to minimize the risks from earthquakes. This study is a product of the European “Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources” project (UPStrat-MAFA European project 2013).

Description: Published

Description: Torino, Italy

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: open

Description: Mt Etna region (Sicily, Italy) is one of the test areas studied in the European Project “Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic fields and FAult sources” ( UPStrat-MAFA) to which the methodology of Disruption Index (hereafter DI), recently developed to evaluate the dysfunction of urban systems caused by earthquakes (Ferreira et al., 2014), has been applied on a trial basis.

Description: Published

Description: Istanbul, Turkey

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: open

Description: On March 19, 1914 Giuseppe Mercalli, a seismologist and volcanologist, well-known around the world for the Intensity scale of earthquakes bearing his name, died tragically. A hundred years after, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) has promoted a variety of activities and cultural events that will take place under the Patronage of the President of the Italian Republic within a year, the so called “Anno Mercalliano” (the Year of Mercalli). The opening ceremony took place in Naples, Italy, on March 19, 2014, in the Convitto Nazionale Vittorio Emanuele II. A scientific conference was held with the participation of experts from INGV and the university of Milano – Bicocca, and presentations of students. On that day the exhibition entitled “I luoghi di Mercalli” (Mercalli's places) was also inaugurated, at the presence of local authorities. The exhibition, organized by INGV, was realized in collaboration with the high school Vittorio Emanuele II, where Mercalli has been teaching for 19 years, and the Università degli Studi Suor Orsola Benincasa, where he was professor of natural sciences. A biographical and geographical description of the places where Mercalli operated introduces the exhibition, which is organized in sections: - Mercalli educator (he taught at high schools in Reggio Calabria and Naples); - Mercalli volcanologist (Mercalli studied Vesuvius volcanic activity for more than twenty years, he was a scientific witness of the Vesuvius 1906 eruption, and of the eruptions occurred at Vulcano (1888-90) and Stromboli (1891) islands. - Mercalli seismologist (Mercalli Intensity scale definition, based on his experience as witness of catastrophic earthquakes, such as Casamicciola in 1883 and Messina in 1908). Another section deals with the Vesuvius Observatory, directed by Mercalli between 1911 and 1914, and the description of the three active volcanoes of the Campania region (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia island), which have been the subject of studies by the well-known scientist. The exhibition is enriched by documents, manuscripts, photos and field notebooks of Mercalli. It is not intended to be only a celebratory exhibition; rather it is designed as a tool for dissemination of scientific culture and to raise awareness about seismic and volcanic hazards. In the exhibition path a continuous thread between the figure of Mercalli as a researcher and the role of an Earth Science researcher today is highlighted, pointing to the development of scientific knowledge in the past century. The goal is to improve the capability of learning from the disasters occurred in the past to implement preventive actions to safely deal with future events. The exhibition is travelling and will be provided on request to institutions and schools.

Description: Published

Description: Milano, Italia

Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici

Description: open

Description: been experimentally quantified via cooling-induced solidification approach. GFA is measured by the critical cooling rate Rc, the rate at which a melt solidifies ≤2 area% of crystals. Cooling rates of 9000, 1800, 180, 60, 7 and 1 °C/h have been run between 1300 °C (super-liquidus region) and 800 °C (quenching temperature), at air fO2 and ambient P for six silicate melts with compositions ranging from basalt (B) to rhyolite (R) (i.e., B100, B80R20, B60R40, B40R60, B20R80 and R100) and water contents comprised between 53 (B100) and 384 (B20R80) ppm. The ranges of cooling rates and chemical compositions used in this study are the broadest ever investigated in the Earth sciences. The phase proportions (area%) were determined by image analysis on about 500 back-scattered electron images collected over different magnifications. Phases are glass, clinopyroxene (cpx), spinel (sp) and plagioclase (plg). Sp is ubiquitous with abundance of few area% and nucleates earlier than silicate crystals. Cpx solidifies in all runs except in R100 and its abundance follows asymmetric broad Gaussian-like trends (with tails towards low rates) as a function of cooling rate. Moving from B100 to B40R60 these trends conserve their shape but shift progressively to lower cooling rates and mineral abundances. Plg crystallises only at low cooling rates and in SiO2-poor compositions. Run-products with low amounts of crystals (≤5 area%) clearly show that cpx preferentially nucleates on surfaces of sp, whereas a significant crystallisation of cpx (N5 area%) is observed with decreasing cooling rate and with changing composition from B100 to B20R80. The crystallisation of silicate crystals is related to the chemical diffusivity of components in the melt. Also the initial crystallisation of plg occurs preferentially on cpx. In general, the amount of crystals decreases as the cooling rate increases; however, in some cases, the amount of crystals remains constant or even decreases for B80R20 with decreasing cooling rate. Rc values change over 5 orders of magnitude being b1, 7, 620, 3020, 8020 and 9000 °C/h for R100, B20R80, B40R60, B60R40 and B80R20 and B100, respectively. The variation of Rc can be modelled through NBO/T (nonbridging oxygen per tetrahedron) parameter by the following equation: Rc=a / {1+e−[(NBO/T − b)/c]},where a, b and c are fitting parameters equal to 9214, 0.297 and 0.040, respectively. Similarly to other glass-forming liquids (network, metallic and molecular systems), Rc for natural sub-alkaline silicate melts is inversely related to the reduced glass transition parameter Trg (Trg=Tg / Tm) and can be quantified with the equation Rc= a × Trg−b, where a and b are 1.19 × 10−4 and 28.7, respectively. These results may be used to retrieve the solidification conditions of aphyric, degassed and oxidised lavas; in addition, our data provide general constrains on the crystallisation kinetics of natural crystal-bearing silicate melts erupted on Earth (e.g. lavas with phenocrysts). The relationship between crystal content and cooling rate suggests that the solidification path induced by degassing can be also complex and nonlinear. The growth of crystalswith size up to 1 mm from a nearly anhydrous superheated silicate melt indicates that variable cooling conditions of lavas have to be accounted to discriminate amongminerals formed before, during and after eruptions.Moreover, our results can be used to design glass-ceramics from naturally available easy to find, low-cost starting materials.

Description: Published

Description: 25-44

Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Annual January/July midlatitude daytime asymmetry in monthly median NmF2 and model thermospheric parameters has been considered during deep solar minimum, (2008–2009), when solar and geomagnetic activities were at the lowest level, to analyze the background effect due to the Sun-Earth minimum distance, perihelion, in the vicinity of the December solstice. Averaged over 10 midlatitude station pairs, the NmF2 asymmetry was found to be ≈1.23, while the average asymmetry for the annual component in NmF2 variations is ≈1.17. Annual asymmetry in monthly median neutral composition and temperature predicted by Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter 86 (MSIS86) and MSISE00 thermospheric models along with the 7% increase in solar EUV flux in the vicinity of the December solstice is sufficient to explain the observed annual asymmetry in NmF2. A hierarchy of aeronomic parameters responsible for the observed asymmetry in NmF2 has been established: the main contributor is atomic oxygen—about 50% of the total effect, [N2] contributes around 35% strongly compensating the [O] contribution, and solar EUV and Tn provide 〈10% each. The zonal mean annual asymmetry in MSIS86 atomic oxygen column density was shown to be 1.18 at low and middle latitudes, and this is close to the estimated asymmetry for the annual component in NmF2 variations. The earlier proposed mechanism of the December anomaly is considered as a plausible one to explain the 1.18 January/July asymmetry in the atomic oxygen variations and consequently the NmF2 annual daytime asymmetry at middle latitudes under the deep solar minimum.

Description: Published

Description: 1341-1354

Description: 2A. Fisica dell'alta atmosfera

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: From simple considerations we propose a revision of the AcceleratingMoment Release (AMR) methodology for improving our knowledge of seismic sequences and then, hopefully in a close future, to reach the capability of predicting the main-shock location and occurrence with sufficient accuracy. The proposed revision is based on the introduction of a “reduced” Benioff strain for the earthquakes of the seismic sequence where, for the same magnitude and after a certain distance from the main-shock epicentre, the closer the events the more they are weighted. In addition,we retain the usual expressions proposed by the ordinary AMRmethod for the estimation of the corresponding main-shock magnitude, although this parameter is the weakest of the analysis. Then, we apply the revised method to four case studies in Italy, three of which are the most recent seismic sequences of the last 9 years culminating with a shallow main-shock, and one is instead a 1995–1996 swarm with no significant main-shock. The application of the R-AMRmethodology provides the best results in detecting the precursory seismic acceleration,when comparedwith those found by ordinaryAMR technique.We verify also the stability of the results in space, applying the analysis to real data with moving circles in a large area around each mainshock epicentre, and the efficiency of the revised technique in time, comparing the results with those obtained when applying the same analysis to simulated seismic sequences.

Description: Published

Description: 82–98

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The tectonic system of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) is the source of most of the strongest earthquakes occurring in the area over the last 205 years. A total of 12 events with epicentre intensities CVIII EMS have occurred at Mt. Etna, 10 of which were located on the eastern flank. This indicates a mean recurrence time of about 20 years. This area is highly urbanised, with many villages around the volcano at altitudes up to 700 m a.s.l. The southern and eastern flanks are particularly highly populated areas, with numerous villages very close to each other. The probabilistic seismic hazard due to local faults for Mt. Etna was calculated by adopting a site approach to seismic hazard assessment. Only the site histories of local volcano-tectonic earthquakes were considered, leaving out the effects due to strong regional earthquakes that occurred in north-eastern and south-eastern Sicily. The inventory used in this application refers to residential buildings. These data were extracted from the 1991 census of the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and are grouped according to the census sections. The seismic vulnerability of the elements at risk belonging to a given building typology is described by a vulnerability index, in accordance with a damage model based on macroseismic intensities. For the estimation of economic losses due to physical damage to buildings, an integrated impact indicator was used, which is equivalent to the lost building volume. The expected annualised economic earthquake losses were evaluated both in absolute and in relative terms, and were compared with the geographical distribution of seismic hazard and with similar evaluations of losses for other regions.

Description: Published

Description: 2031–2045

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved

Description: We conducted quantitative textural analysis of vesicles in high temperature and pressure carbonate assimilation experiments (1200 °C, 0.5 GPa) to investigate CO2 generation and subsequent bubble migration from carbonate into magma. We employed Mt. Merapi (Indonesia) and Mt. Vesuvius (Italy) compositions as magmatic starting materials and present three experimental series using (1) a dry basaltic-andesite, (2) a hydrous basaltic-andesite (2 wt% H2O), and (3) a hydrous shoshonite (2 wt% H2O). The duration of the experiments was varied from 0 to 300 s, and carbonate assimilation produced a CO2-rich fluid and CaO-enriched melts in all cases. The rate of carbonate assimilation, however, changed as a function of melt viscosity, which affected the 2D vesicle number, vesicle volume, and vesicle size distribution within each experiment. Relatively low-viscosity melts (i.e. Vesuvius experiments) facilitated efficient removal of bubbles from the reaction site. This allowed carbonate assimilation to continue unhindered and large volumes of CO2 to beliberated, a scenario thought to fuel sustained CO2-driven eruptions at the surface. Conversely, at higher viscosity (i.e. Merapi experiments), bubble migration became progressively inhibited and bubble concentration at the reaction site caused localised volatile over-pressure that can eventually trigger short-lived explosive outbursts. Melt viscosity therefore exerts a fundamental control on carbonate assimilation rates and, by consequence, the style of CO2-fuelled eruptions.

Description: Published

Description: 42

Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: The geological record at rifts and margins worldwide often reveals considerable along-strike variations in volumes of extruded and intruded igneous rocks. These variations may be the result of asthenospheric heterogeneity, variations in rate, and timing of extension; alternatively, preexisting plate architecture and/or the evolving kinematics of extension during breakup may exert first-order control on magmatism. The Main Ethiopian Rift (MER) in East Africa provides an excellent opportunity to address this dichotomy: it exposes, along strike, several sectors of asynchronous rift development from continental rifting in the south to incipient oceanic spreading in the north. Here we perform studies of volcanic cone density and rift obliquity along strike in the MER. By synthesizing these new data in light of existing geophysical, geochemical, and petrological constraints on magma generation and emplacement, we are able to discriminate between tectonic and mantle geodynamic controls on the geological record of a newly forming magmatic rifted margin. The timing of rift sector development, the three-dimensional focusing of melt, and the ponding of plume material where the rift dramatically narrows each influence igneous intrusion and volcanism along the MER. However, rifting obliquity plays an important role in localizing intrusion into the crust beneath en echelon volcanic segments. Along-strike variations in volumes and types of igneous rocks found at rifted margins thus likely carry information about the development of strain during rifting, as well as the physical state of the convecting mantle at the time of breakup.

Description: Published

Description: 467-477

Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Mercury is transported globally in the atmosphere mostly in gaseous elemental form (GEM, Hg0 gas), but still few worldwide studies taking into account different and contrasted environmental settings are available in a single publication. This work presents and discusses data from Argentina, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Chile, China, Croatia, Finland, Italy, Russia, South Africa, Spain, Slovenia and Venezuela. We classified the information in four groups: (1) mining districts where this contaminant poses or has posed a risk for human populations and/or ecosystems; (2) cities, where the concentration ofatmospheric mercury could be higher than normal due to the burning of fossil fuels and industrial activities; (3) areas with natural emissions from volcanoes; and (4) pristine areas where no anthropogenic influence was apparent. All the surveys were performed using portable LUMEX RA-915 series atomic absorption spectrometers. The results for cities fall within a low GEM concentration range that rarely exceeds 30 ng m-3, that is, 6.6 times lower than the restrictive ATSDR threshold (200 ng m-3) for chronic exposure to this pollutant. We also observed this behavior in the former mercury mining districts, where few data were above 200 ng m-3.We noted that high concentrations of GEM are localized phenomena that fade away in short distances. However, this does not imply that they do not pose a risk for those working in close proximity to the source. This is the case of the artisanal gold miners that heat the Au–Hg amalgam to vaporize mercury. In this respect, while GEM can be truly regarded as a hazard, because of possible physical–chemical transformations into other species, it is only under these localized conditions, implying exposure to high GEM concentrations, which it becomes a direct risk for humans.

Description: Grants CGL2009-13171 and CTM2012-33918 from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and PII1I09-0142- 4389 from theCastilla-LaMancha (Spain)RegionalGovernment.

Description: Published

Description: 713-734

Description: 6A. Monitoraggio ambientale, sicurezza e territorio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Branching processes provide an accurate description of earthquake occurrence in the short term (days to a few weeks). Yet, the implementation of these models is not usually straightforward because of the difficulties in estimating the parameters. Indeed, log-likelihood estimation involves a spatial integral that cannot be analytically evaluated and is difficult to implement in numerical codes. Here we present a novel technique that allows for an accurate, stable, and relatively fast param- eter inversion procedure. We study the efficiency of this technique using synthetic epidemic-type aftershock sequence catalogs with a set of parameters known a priori. Results show the efficiency of the novel technique and illustrate the limits of recently proposed approximations

Description: Published

Description: 985 – 994

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved