Publication Date:
2021-01-04
Description:
We present a neotectonic model of ongoing lithosphere deformation and a corresponding estimate of long-term shallow seismicity across the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, including the eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean region, and continental Europe. GPS and stress data are absent or inadequate for the part of the study area covered by water. Thus, we opt for a dynamic model based on the stress-equilibrium equation; this approach allows us to estimate the long-term behavior of the lithosphere (given certain assumptions about its structure and physics) for both land and sea areas. We first update the existing plate model by adding five quasi-rigid plates (the Ionian Sea, Adria, Northern Greece, Central Greece, and Marmara) to constrain the deformation pattern of the study area. We use the most recent datasets to estimate the lithospheric structure. The models are evaluated in comparison with updated datasets of geodetic velocities and the most compressive horizontal principal stress azimuths. We find that the side and basal strengths drive the present-day motion of the Adria and Aegean Sea plates, whereas lithostatic pressure plays a key role in driving Anatolia. These findings provide new insights into the neotectonics of the greater Mediterranean region. Finally, the preferred model is used to estimate long-term shallow seismicity, which we retrospectively test against historical seismicity. As an alternative to reliance on incomplete geologic data or historical seismic catalogs, these neotectonic models help to forecast long-term seismicity, although requiring additional tuning before seismicity rates are used for seismic hazard purposes.
Description:
Published
Description:
5311–5342
Description:
1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
Description:
2T. Tettonica attiva
Description:
3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
open
Keywords:
Tectonics
;
Earthquake rates
;
04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.03. Heat flow
;
04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
;
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology
;
04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress
;
04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
