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  • Copernicus  (49,205)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • MDPI Publishing
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-04-17
    Description: TR17-08, a marine sedimentary core (14.6 m), was collected during 2017 from the Edisto Inlet (Ross Sea, Antarctica), a small fjord near Cape Hallett. The core is characterized by expanded laminated sedimentary sequences making it suitable for studying submillennial processes during the Early Holocene. By studying different well-known foraminifera species (Globocassidulina biora, G. subglobosa, Trifarina angulosa, Nonionella iridea, Epistominella exigua, Stainforthia feylingi, Miliammina arenacea, Paratrochammina bartrami and Portatrochammina antarctica), we were able to identify five different foraminiferal assemblages over the last ∼ 2000 years BP. Comparison with diatom assemblages and other geochemical proxies retrieved from nearby sediment cores in the Edisto Inlet (BAY05-20 and HLF17-1) made it possible to distinguish three different phases characterized by different environmental settings: (1) a seasonal phase (from 2012 to 1486 years BP) characterized by the dominance of calcareous species, indicating a seasonal opening of the inlet by more frequent events of melting of the sea-ice cover during the austral summer and, in general, a higher-productivity, more open and energetic environment; (2) a transitional phase (from 1486 to 696 years BP) during which the fjord experienced less extensive sea-ice melting, enhanced oxygen-poor conditions and carbonate dissolution conditions, indicated by the shifts from calcareous-dominated association to agglutinated-dominated association probably due to a freshwater input from the retreat of three local glaciers at the start of this period; and (3) a cooler phase (from 696 years BP to present) during which the sedimentation rate decreased and few to no foraminiferal specimens were present, indicating ephemeral openings or a more prolonged cover of the sea ice during the austral summer, affecting the nutrient supply and the sedimentation regime.
    Description: Published
    Description: 95–115
    Description: OSA2: Evoluzione climatica: effetti e loro mitigazione
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(6), pp. 2059-2080, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: Heat stress is projected to intensify with global warming, causing significant socioeconomic impacts and threatening human health. Wet-bulb temperature (WBT), which combines temperature and humidity effects, is a useful indicator for assessing regional and global heat stress variability and trends. However, the variations of European WBT and their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Using observations and reanalysis datasets, we demonstrate a remarkable warming of summer WBT during the period 1958–2021 over Europe. Specifically, the European summer WBT has increased by over 1.08C in the past 64 years. We find that the increase in European summer WBT is driven by both near-surface warming temperatures and increasing atmospheric moisture content. We identify four dominant modes of European summer WBT variability and investigate their linkage with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies. The first two leading modes of the European WBT variability exhibit prominent interdecadal to long-term variations, mainly driven by a circumglobal wave train and concurrent sea surface temperature variations. The last two leading modes of European WBT variability mainly show interannual variations, indicating a direct and rapid response to large-scale atmospheric dynamics and nearby sea surface temperature variations. Further analysis shows the role of global warming and changes in midlatitude circulations in the variations of summer WBT. Our findings can enhance the understanding of plausible drivers of heat stress in Europe and provide valuable insights for regional decision-makers and climate adaptation planning.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(8), pp. 2505-2518, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-04-29
    Description: A fundamental statistic of climate variability is its spatiotemporal correlation function. Its complex structure can be concisely summarized by a frequency-dependent measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom (ESDOF). Here we present, for the first time, frequency-dependent ESDOF estimates of global natural surface temperature variability from purely instrumental measurements, using the HadCRUT4 dataset (1850-2014). The approach is based on a newly developed method for estimating the frequency-dependent spatial correlation function from gappy data fields. Results reveal a multicomponent structure of the spatial correlation function, including a large-amplitude short-distance component (with weak time scale dependence) and a small-amplitude long-distance component (with increasing relative amplitude toward the longer time scales). Two frequency-dependent ESDOF measures are applied, each responding mainly to either of the two components. Both measures exhibit a significant ESDOF reduction from monthly to multidecadal time scales, implying an increase of the effective spatial scale of natural surface temperature fluctuations. Moreover, it is found that a good approximation to the global number of equally spaced samples needed to estimate the variance of global mean temperature is given, at any frequency, by the greater one of the two ESDOF measures, decreasing from ;130 at monthly to ;30 at multidecadal time scales. Finally, the multicomponent structure of the correlation function together with the detected ESDOF scaling properties indicate that the ESDOF reduction toward the longer time scales cannot be explained simply by diffusion acting on stochastically driven anomalies, as it might be suggested f rom simple stochastic-diffusive energy balance models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 4
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 54(4), pp. 1003-1018, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: Coastal upwelling, driven by alongshore winds and characterized by cold sea surface temperatures and high upper-ocean nutrient content, is an important physical process sustaining some of the oceans’ most productive ecosystems. To fully understand the ocean properties in eastern boundary upwelling systems, it is important to consider the depth of the source waters being upwelled, as it affects both the SST and the transport of nutrients toward the surface. Here, we construct an upwelling source depth distribution for parcels at the surface in the upwelling zone. We do so using passive tracers forced at the domain boundary for every model depth level to quantify their contributions to the upwelled waters. We test the dependence of this distribution on the strength of the wind stress and stratification using high-resolution regional ocean simulations of an idealized coastal upwelling system. We also present an efficient method for estimating the mean upwelling source depth. Furthermore, we show that the standard deviation of the upwelling source depth distribution increases with increasing wind stress and decreases with increasing stratification. These results can be applied to better understand and predict how coastal upwelling sites and their surface properties have and will change in past and future climates.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-04-04
    Description: Perturbations in stratospheric aerosol due to explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary contributor to natural climate variability. Observations of stratospheric aerosol are available for the past decades, and information from ice cores has been used to derive estimates of stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth over the Holocene (approximately 10 000 BP to present) and into the last glacial period, extending back to 60 000 BP. Tephra records of past volcanism, compared to ice cores, are less complete but extend much further into the past. To support model studies of the potential impacts of explosive volcanism on climate variability across timescales, we present here an ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection (VSSI) over the last 140 000 years that is based primarily on terrestrial and marine tephra records. VSSI values are computed as a simple function of eruption magnitude based on VSSI estimates from ice cores and satellite observations for identified eruptions. To correct for the incompleteness of the tephra record, we include stochastically generated synthetic eruptions assuming a constant background eruption frequency from the ice core Holocene record. While the reconstruction often differs from ice core estimates for specific eruptions due to uncertainties in the data used and reconstruction method, it shows good agreement with an ice-core-based VSSI reconstruction in terms of millennial-scale cumulative VSSI variations over the Holocene. The PalVol reconstruction provides a new basis to test the contributions of forced vs. unforced natural variability to the spectrum of climate and the mechanisms leading to abrupt transitions in the palaeoclimate record with low- to high-complexity climate models. The PalVol volcanic forcing reconstruction is available at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PalVolv1 (Toohey and Schindlbeck-Belo, 2023).
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-06-21
    Description: Abstract. Clouds are assumed to play an important role in the Arctic amplification process. This motivated a detailed investigation of cloud processes, including radiative and turbulent fluxes. Data from the aircraft campaign ACLOUD were analyzed with a focus on the mean and turbulent structure of the cloudy boundary layer over the Fram Strait marginal sea ice zone in late spring and early summer 2017. Vertical profiles of turbulence moments are presented from contrasting atmospheric boundary layers (ABLs) from 4 d. They differ by the magnitude of wind speed, boundary-layer height, stability, the strength of the cloud-top radiative cooling and the number of cloud layers. Turbulence statistics up to third-order moments are presented, which were obtained from horizontal-level flights and from slanted profiles. It is shown that both of these flight patterns complement each other and form a data set that resolves the vertical structure of the ABL turbulence well. The comparison of the 4 d shows that especially during weak wind, even in shallow Arctic ABLs with mixing ratios below 3 g kg-1, cloud-top cooling can serve as a main source of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE).Well-mixed ABLs are generated where TKE is increased and vertical velocity variance shows pronounced maxima in the cloud layer. Negative vertical velocity skewness points then to upside-down convection. Turbulent heat fluxes are directed upward in the cloud layer as a result of cold downdrafts. In two cases with single-layer stratocumulus, turbulent transport of heat flux and of temperature variance are both negative in the cloud layer, suggesting an important role of large eddies. In contrast, in a case with weak cloud-top cooling, these quantities are positive in the ABL due to the heating from the surface. Based on observations and results of a mixed-layer model it is shown that the maxima of turbulent fluxes are, however, smaller than the jump of the net terrestrial radiation flux across the upper part of a cloud due to the (i) shallowness of the mixed layer and (ii) the presence of a downward entrainment heat flux. The mixed-layer model also shows that the buoyancy production of TKE is substantially smaller in stratocumulus over the Arctic sea ice compared to subtropics due to a smaller surface moisture flux and smaller decrease in specific humidity (or even humidity inversions) right above the cloud top. In a case of strong wind, wind shear shapes the ABL turbulent structure, especially over rough sea ice, despite the presence of a strong cloud-top cooling. In the presence of mid-level clouds, cloud-top radiative cooling and thus also TKE in the lowermost cloud layer are strongly reduced, and the ABL turbulent structure becomes governed by stability, i.e., by the surface–air temperature difference and wind speed. A comparison of slightly unstable and weakly stable cases shows a strong reduction of TKE due to increased stability even though the absolute value of wind speed was similar. In summary, the presented study documents vertical profiles of the ABL turbulence with a high resolution in a wide range of conditions. It can serve as a basis for turbulence closure evaluation and process studies in Arctic clouds.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 7
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus, 23(5), pp. 3207-3232, ISSN: 1680-7316
    Publication Date: 2023-10-19
    Description: The presence of reactive bromine in polar regions is a widespread phenomenon that plays an important role in the photochemistry of the Arctic and Antarctic lower troposphere, including the destruction of ozone, the disturbance of radical cycles, and the oxidation of gaseous elemental mercury. The chemical mechanisms leading to the heterogeneous release of gaseous bromine compounds from saline surfaces are in principle well understood. There are, however, substantial uncertainties about the contribution of different potential sources to the release of reactive bromine, such as sea ice, brine, aerosols, and the snow surface, as well as about the seasonal and diurnal variation and the vertical distribution of reactive bromine. Here we use continuous long-term measurements of the vertical distribution of bromine monoxide (BrO) and aerosols at the two Antarctic sites Neumayer (NM) and Arrival Heights (AH), covering the periods of 2003–2021 and 2012–2021, respectively, to investigate how chemical and physical parameters affect the abundance of BrO. We find the strongest correlation between BrO and aerosol extinction (R=0.56 for NM and R=0.28 for AH during spring), suggesting that the heterogeneous release of Br2 from saline airborne particles (blowing snow and aerosols) is a dominant source for reactive bromine. Positive correlations between BrO and contact time of air masses, both with sea ice and the Antarctic ice sheet, suggest that reactive bromine is not only emitted by the sea ice surface but by the snowpack on the ice shelf and in the coastal regions of Antarctica. In addition, the open ocean appears to represent a source for reactive bromine during late summer and autumn when the sea ice extent is at its minimum. A source–receptor analysis based on back trajectories and sea ice maps shows that main source regions for BrO at NM are the Weddell Sea and the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf, as well as coastal polynyas where sea ice is newly formed. A strong morning peak in BrO frequently occurring during summer and that is particularly strong during autumn suggests a night-time build-up of Br2 by heterogeneous reaction of ozone on the saline snowpack in the vicinity of the measurement sites. We furthermore show that BrO can be sustained for at least 3 d while travelling across the Antarctic continent in the absence of any saline surfaces that could serve as a source for reactive bromine.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(11), (2022): 2841–2852, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0025.1.
    Description: Prediction of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones prior to landfall is a major societal issue. While air–sea interactions are clearly linked to storm intensity, the connections between the underlying thermal conditions over continental shelves and rapid intensification are limited. Here, an exceptional set of in situ and satellite data are used to identify spatial heterogeneity in sea surface temperatures across the inner core of Hurricane Sally (2020), a storm that rapidly intensified over the shelf. A leftward shift in the region of maximum cooling was observed as the hurricane transited from the open gulf to the shelf. This shift was generated, in part, by the surface heat flux in conjunction with the along- and across-shelf transport of heat from storm-generated coastal circulation. The spatial differences in the sea surface temperatures were large enough to potentially influence rapid intensification processes suggesting that coastal thermal features need to be accounted for to improve storm forecasting as well as to better understand how climate change will modify interactions between tropical cyclones and the coastal ocean.
    Description: This research was made possible by the NOAA RESTORE Science Program (NA17NOS4510101 and NA19NOS4510194) and the NASA Physical Oceanography program (80NSSC21K0553 and WBS 281945.02.25.04.67) and NOAA IOOS program via GCOOS (NA16NOS0120018). The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
    Keywords: Seas/gulfs/bays ; Atmosphere–ocean interaction ; Currents ; Tropical cyclones ; Buoy observations ; In situ oceanic observations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1797–1815, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-21-0288.1.
    Description: Intruding slope water is a major source of nutrients to sustain the high biological productivity in the Gulf of Maine (GoM). Slope water intrusion into the GoM is affected by Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) impinging onto the nearby shelf edge. This study combines long-term mooring measurements, satellite remote sensing data, an idealized numerical ocean model, and a linear coastal-trapped wave (CTW) model to examine the impact of WCRs on slope water intrusion into the GoM through the Northeast Channel. Analysis of satellite sea surface height and temperature data shows that the slope sea region off the GoM is a hotspot of ring activities. A significant linear relationship is found between interannual variations of ring activities in the slope sea region off the GoM and bottom salinity at the Northeast Channel, suggesting the importance of WCRs in modulating variability of intruding slope water. Analysis of the mooring data reveals enhanced slope water intrusion through bottom-intensified along-channel flow following impingements of WCRs on the nearby shelf edge. Numerical simulations qualitatively reproduce the observed WCR impingement processes and associated episodic enhancement of slope water intrusion in the Northeast Channel. Diagnosis of the model result indicates that baroclinic CTWs excited by the ring–topography interaction are responsible for the episodically intensified subsurface along-channel inflow, which carries more slope water into the GoM. A WCR that impinges onto the shelf edge to the northeast of the Northeast Channel tends to generate stronger CTWs and cause stronger enhancement of the slope water intrusion into the GoM.
    Description: This study is supported by the National Science Foundation through Grant OCE-1634965.
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; Channel flows ; Mesoscale processes ; In situ oceanic observations ; Satellite observations ; Numerical analysis/modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, pp. 1-40, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2023-09-04
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉Tipping points in the Earth system describe critical thresholds beyond which a single component, part of the system, or the system as a whole changes from one stable state to another. In the present-day Southern Ocean, the Weddell Sea constitutes an important dense-water formation site, associated with efficient deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer and low ice-shelf basal melt rates. Here, a regime shift will occur when continental shelves are continuously flushed with warm, oxygen-poor offshore waters from intermediate depth, leading to less efficient deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer and higher ice-shelf basal melt rates. We use a global ocean–biogeochemistry model including ice-shelf cavities and an eddy-permitting grid in the southern Weddell Sea to address the susceptibility of this region to such a system change for four 21〈jats:sup〉st〈/jats:sup〉-century emission scenarios. Assessing the projected changes in shelf–open ocean density gradients, bottom-water properties, and on-shelf heat transport, our results indicate that the Weddell Sea undergoes a regime shift by 2100 in the highest-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, but not yet in the lower-emission scenarios. The regime shift is imminent by 2100 in the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP2-4.5, but avoidable under the lowest-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. While shelf-bottom waters freshen and acidify everywhere, bottom waters in the Filchner Trough undergo accelerated warming and deoxygenation following the system change, with implications for local ecosystems and ice-shelf basal melt. Additionally, deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer decline, implying that the local changes ultimately affect ocean circulation, climate, and ecosystems globally.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2023-04-26
    Description: Mechanisms behind the phenomenon of Arctic amplification are widely discussed. To contribute to this debate, the (AC)3 project was established in 2016 (www.ac3-tr.de/). It comprises modeling and data analysis efforts as well as observational elements. The project has assembled a wealth of ground-based, airborne, shipborne, and satellite data of physical, chemical, and meteorological properties of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and upper ocean that are available for the Arctic climate research community. Short-term changes and indications of long-term trends in Arctic climate parameters have been detected using existing and new data. For example, a distinct atmospheric moistening, an increase of regional storm activities, an amplified winter warming in the Svalbard and North Pole regions, and a decrease of sea ice thickness in the Fram Strait and of snow depth on sea ice have been identified. A positive trend of tropospheric bromine monoxide (BrO) column densities during polar spring was verified. Local marine/biogenic sources for cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles were found. Atmospheric–ocean and radiative transfer models were advanced by applying new parameterizations of surface albedo, cloud droplet activation, convective plumes and related processes over leads, and turbulent transfer coefficients for stable surface layers. Four modes of the surface radiative energy budget were explored and reproduced by simulations. To advance the future synthesis of the results, cross-cutting activities are being developed aiming to answer key questions in four focus areas: lapse rate feedback, surface processes, Arctic mixed-phase clouds, and airmass transport and transformation.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2023-02-17
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(10), (2022): 1525–1539, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0186.1.
    Description: The static and dynamic performances of the RBRargo3 are investigated using a combination of laboratory-based and in situ datasets from floats deployed as part of an Argo pilot program. Temperature and pressure measurements compare well to co-located reference data acquired from shipboard CTDs. Static accuracy of salinity measurements is significantly improved using 1) a time lag for temperature, 2) a quadratic pressure dependence, and 3) a unit-based calibration for each RBRargo3 over its full pressure range. Long-term deployments show no significant drift in the RBRargo3 accuracy. The dynamic response of the RBRargo3 demonstrates the presence of two different adjustment time scales: a long-term adjustment O(120) s, driven by the temperature difference between the interior of the conductivity cell and the water, and a short-term adjustment O(5–10) s, associated to the initial exchange of heat between the water and the inner ceramic. Corrections for these effects, including dependence on profiling speed, are developed.
    Keywords: Data processing/distribution ; In situ oceanic observations ; Profilers ; Oceanic
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2023-06-21
    Description: Springtime Arctic mixed-phase convection over open water in the Fram Strait as observed during the recent ACLOUD (Arctic CLoud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar Day) field campaign is simulated at turbulence-resolving resolutions. The first objective is to assess the skill of large-eddy simulation (LES) in reproducing the observed mixed-phase convection. The second goal is to then use the model to investigate how aerosol modulates the way in which turbulent mixing and clouds transform the low-level air mass. The focus lies on the low-level thermal structure and lapse rate, the heating efficiency of turbulent entrainment, and the low-level energy budget. A composite case is constructed based on data collected by two research aircraft on 18 June 2017. Simulations are evaluated against independent datasets, showing that the observed thermodynamic, cloudy, and turbulent states are well reproduced. Sensitivity tests on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration are then performed, covering a broad range between pristine polar and polluted continental values. We find a significant response in the resolved mixed-phase convection, which is in line with previous LES studies. An increased CCN substantially enhances the depth of convection and liquid cloud amount, accompanied by reduced surface precipitation. Initializing with the in situ CCN data yields the best agreement with the cloud and turbulence observations, a result that prioritizes its measurement during field campaigns for supporting high-resolution modeling efforts. A deeper analysis reveals that CCN significantly increases the efficiency of radiatively driven entrainment in warming the boundary layer. The marked strengthening of the thermal inversion plays a key role in this effect. The low-level heat budget shifts from surface driven to radiatively driven. This response is accompanied by a substantial reduction in the surface energy budget, featuring a weakened flow of solar radiation into the ocean. Results are interpreted in the context of air–sea interactions, air mass transformations, and climate feedbacks at high latitudes.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(12),(2022): 3199-3219, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0009.1.
    Description: The abyssal overturning circulation is thought to be primarily driven by small-scale turbulent mixing. Diagnosed water-mass transformations are dominated by rough topography “hotspots,” where the bottom enhancement of mixing causes the diffusive buoyancy flux to diverge, driving widespread downwelling in the interior—only to be overwhelmed by an even stronger upwelling in a thin bottom boundary layer (BBL). These water-mass transformations are significantly underestimated by one-dimensional (1D) sloping boundary layer solutions, suggesting the importance of three-dimensional physics. Here, we use a hierarchy of models to generalize this 1D boundary layer approach to three-dimensional eddying flows over realistically rough topography. When applied to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge in the Brazil Basin, the idealized simulation results are roughly consistent with available observations. Integral buoyancy budgets isolate the physical processes that contribute to realistically strong BBL upwelling. The downward diffusion of buoyancy is primarily balanced by upwelling along the sloping canyon sidewalls and the surrounding abyssal hills. These flows are strengthened by the restratifying effects of submesoscale baroclinic eddies and by the blocking of along-ridge thermal wind within the canyon. Major topographic sills block along-thalweg flows from restratifying the canyon trough, resulting in the continual erosion of the trough’s stratification. We propose simple modifications to the 1D boundary layer model that approximate each of these three-dimensional effects. These results provide local dynamical insights into mixing-driven abyssal overturning, but a complete theory will also require the nonlocal coupling to the basin-scale circulation.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 1536515, 1736109, and 2149080. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant 174530.
    Description: 2023-05-18
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Diapycnal mixing ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Topographic effects ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Bottom currents/bottom water
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(6), (2022): 1091–1110, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-21-0068.1.
    Description: Hundreds of full-depth temperature and salinity profiles collected by Deepglider autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) in the North Atlantic reveal robust signals in eddy isopycnal vertical displacement and horizontal current throughout the entire water column. In separate glider missions southeast of Bermuda, subsurface-intensified cold, fresh coherent vortices were observed with velocities exceeding 20 cm s−1 at depths greater than 1000 m. With vertical resolution on the order of 20 m or less, these full-depth glider slant profiles newly permit estimation of scaled vertical wavenumber spectra from the barotropic through the 40th baroclinic mode. Geostrophic turbulence theory predictions of spectral slopes associated with the forward enstrophy cascade and proportional to inverse wavenumber cubed generally agree with glider-derived quasi-universal spectra of potential and kinetic energy found at a variety of locations distinguished by a wide range of mean surface eddy kinetic energy. Water-column average spectral estimates merge at high vertical mode number to established descriptions of internal wave spectra. Among glider mission sites, geographic and seasonal variability implicate bottom drag as a mechanism for dissipation, but also the need for more persistent sampling of the deep ocean.
    Description: This work was funded by NSF Grant 1736217 and would not have been possible without the help of Kirk O’Donnell, James Bennett, Noel Pelland, and all contributors to Deepglider development. We additionally thank the captain crew of the R/V Atlantic Explorer and the BATS team at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, particularly Rod Johnson, as well as Seakeepers International for their professionalism, capability, and generous assistance in deploying and recovering gliders.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Eddies ; Mesoscale processes ; Turbulence ; Energy transport ; In situ oceanic observations ; Oceanic variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2023-03-02
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(12), (2022): 3221–3240, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0010.1.
    Description: Small-scale mixing drives the diabatic upwelling that closes the abyssal ocean overturning circulation. Indirect microstructure measurements of in situ turbulence suggest that mixing is bottom enhanced over rough topography, implying downwelling in the interior and stronger upwelling in a sloping bottom boundary layer. Tracer release experiments (TREs), in which inert tracers are purposefully released and their dispersion is surveyed over time, have been used to independently infer turbulent diffusivities—but typically provide estimates in excess of microstructure ones. In an attempt to reconcile these differences, Ruan and Ferrari derived exact tracer-weighted buoyancy moment diagnostics, which we here apply to quasi-realistic simulations. A tracer’s diapycnal displacement rate is exactly twice the tracer-averaged buoyancy velocity, itself a convolution of an asymmetric upwelling/downwelling dipole. The tracer’s diapycnal spreading rate, however, involves both the expected positive contribution from the tracer-averaged in situ diffusion as well as an additional nonlinear diapycnal distortion term, which is caused by correlations between buoyancy and the buoyancy velocity, and can be of either sign. Distortion is generally positive (stretching) due to bottom-enhanced mixing in the stratified interior but negative (contraction) near the bottom. Our simulations suggest that these two effects coincidentally cancel for the Brazil Basin Tracer Release Experiment, resulting in negligible net distortion. By contrast, near-bottom tracers experience leading-order distortion that varies in time. Errors in tracer moments due to realistically sparse sampling are generally small (〈20%), especially compared to the O(1) structural errors due to the omission of distortion effects in inverse models. These results suggest that TREs, although indispensable, should not be treated as “unambiguous” constraints on diapycnal mixing.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 1536515 and 1736109. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant 174530. This research is also supported by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by UCAR’s Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS) under Award NA18NWS4620043B.
    Description: 2023-05-18
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Diffusion ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Bottom currents/bottom water ; Tracers
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2024-04-29
    Description: Stable water isotopologues of snow, firn and ice cores provide valuable information on past climate variations. Yet single profiles are generally not suitable for robust climate reconstructions. Stratigraphic noise, introduced by the irregular deposition, wind-driven erosion and redistribution of snow, impacts the utility of high-resolution isotope records, especially in low-Accumulation areas. However, it is currently unknown how stratigraphic noise differs across the East Antarctic Plateau and how it is affected by local environmental conditions. Here, we assess the amount and structure of stratigraphic noise at seven sites along a 120 km transect on the plateau of Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Replicated oxygen isotope records of 1 m length were used to estimate signal-To-noise ratios as a measure of stratigraphic noise at sites characterised by different accumulation rates (43-64 mm w.e. a-1), snow surface roughnesses and slope inclinations. While we found a high level of stratigraphic noise at all sites, there was also considerable variation between sites. At sastrugi-dominated sites, greater stratigraphic noise coincided with stronger surface roughnesses, steeper slopes and lower accumulation rates, probably related to increased wind speeds. These results provide a first step to modelling stratigraphic noise and might guide site selection and sampling strategies for future expeditions to improve high-resolution climate reconstructions from low-Accumulation regions.
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  • 18
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s1-s10, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-08
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.〈/jats:p〉
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2024-05-08
    Description: NORP-SORP Workshop on Polar Fresh Water: Sources, Pathways and Impacts of Freshwater in Northern and Southern Polar Oceans and Seas (SPICE-UP) What: Up to 60 participants at a time and more than twice as many registrants in total from 20 nations and across experience levels met to discuss the current status of research on freshwater in both polar regions, future directions, and synergies between the Arctic and Southern Ocean research communities When: 19–21 September 2022 Where: Online
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 20
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s271-s321, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-08
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 21
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 35(23), pp. 7811-7831, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2023-06-23
    Description: Numerical simulations allow us to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past, present, and future climate changes. The mid-Holocene (MH) and the last interglacial (LIG) were the two most recent warm episodes of Earth’s climate history and are the focus of paleoclimate research. Here, we present results of MH and LIG simulations with two versions of the state-of-the-art Earth system model AWI-ESM. Most of the climate changes in MH and LIG compared to the preindustrial era are agreed upon by the two model versions, including 1) enhanced seasonality in surface temperature that is driven by the redistribution of seasonal insolation; 2) a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and tropical rain belt; 3) a reduction in annual mean Arctic sea ice concentration; 4) weakening and northward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, which is related to the decrease and poleward shift of the temperature gradient from the subtropical to the equator in the Northern Hemisphere; 5) a westward shift of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation due to anomalous warming over the Eurasia and North Africa during boreal summer; and 6) an expansion and intensification of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall, with the latter being dominated by the dynamic component of moisture budget (i.e., the strengthening of wind circulation). However, the simulated responses of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the two models yield different results for both the LIG and the MH. AMOC anomalies between the warm interglacial and preindustrial periods are associated with changes in North Atlantic westerly winds and stratification of the water column at the North Atlantic due to changes in ocean temperature, salinity, and density.
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1705-1730, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-21-0243.1.
    Description: Formation and evolution of barrier layers (BLs) and associated temperature inversions (TIs) were investigated using a 1-yr time series of oceanic and air–sea surface observations from three moorings deployed in the eastern Pacific fresh pool. BL thickness and TI amplitude showed a seasonality with maxima in boreal summer and autumn when BLs were persistently present. Mixed layer salinity (MLS) and mixed layer temperature (MLT) budgets were constructed to investigate the formation mechanism of BLs and TIs. The MLS budget showed that BLs were initially formed in response to horizontal advection of freshwater in boreal summer and then primarily maintained by precipitation. The MLT budget revealed that penetration of shortwave radiation through the mixed layer base is the dominant contributor to TI formation through subsurface warming. Geostrophic advection is a secondary contributor to TI formation through surface cooling. When the BL exists, the cooling effect from entrainment and the warming effect from detrainment are both significantly reduced. In addition, when the BL is associated with the presence of a TI, entrainment works to warm the mixed layer. The presence of BLs makes the shallower mixed layer more sensitive to surface heat and freshwater fluxes, acting to enhance the formation of TIs that increase the subsurface warming via shortwave penetration.
    Description: SK is supported by JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships. JS and SK are supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC18K1500. JTF and the mooring deployment were funded by NASA Grants NNX15AG20G and 80NSSC18K1494. DZ is supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC18K1499. This publication is partially funded by the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA20OAR4320271, Contribution 2021-1152. This is PMEL Contribution 5268.
    Description: 2023-01-27
    Keywords: Ocean ; North Pacific Ocean ; Tropics ; Entrainment ; Oceanic mixed layer ; Salinity
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1927-1943, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-21-0124.1.
    Description: The Galápagos Archipelago lies on the equator in the path of the eastward flowing Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC). When the EUC reaches the archipelago, it upwells and bifurcates into a north and south branch around the archipelago at a latitude determined by topography. Since the Coriolis parameter (f) equals zero at the equator, strong velocity gradients associated with the EUC can result in Ertel potential vorticity (Q) having sign opposite that of planetary vorticity near the equator. Observations collected by underwater gliders deployed just west of the Galápagos Archipelago during 2013–16 are used to estimate Q and to diagnose associated instabilities that may impact the Galápagos Cold Pool. Estimates of Q are qualitatively conserved along streamlines, consistent with the 2.5-layer, inertial model of the EUC by Pedlosky. The Q with sign opposite of f is advected south of the Galápagos Archipelago when the EUC core is located south of the bifurcation latitude. The horizontal gradient of Q suggests that the region between 2°S and 2°N above 100 m is barotropically unstable, while limited regions are baroclinically unstable. Conditions conducive to symmetric instability are observed between the EUC core and the equator and within the southern branch of the undercurrent. Using 2-month and 3-yr averages, e-folding time scales are 2–11 days, suggesting that symmetric instability can persist on those time scales.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grants OCE-1232971 and OCE-1233282), the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program (Grant 80NSSC17K0443), and the Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NA13OAR4830216). Color maps are from Thyng et al. (2016).
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Currents ; In situ oceanic observations ; Instability ; Mixing ; Ocean dynamics ; Pacific Ocean ; Potential vorticity ; Tropics
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(8), (2022): 1183-1198, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0068.1.
    Description: Horizontal kinematic properties, such as vorticity, divergence, and lateral strain rate, are estimated from drifter clusters using three approaches. At submesoscale horizontal length scales O(1–10)km, kinematic properties become as large as planetary vorticity f, but challenging to observe because they evolve on short time scales O(hourstodays). By simulating surface drifters in a model flow field, we quantify the sources of uncertainty in the kinematic property calculations due to the deformation of cluster shape. Uncertainties arise primarily due to (i) violation of the linear estimation methods and (ii) aliasing of unresolved scales. Systematic uncertainties (iii) due to GPS errors, are secondary but can become as large as (i) and (ii) when aspect ratios are small. Ideal cluster parameters (number of drifters, length scale, and aspect ratio) are determined and error functions estimated empirically and theoretically. The most robust method—a two-dimensional, linear least squares fit—is applied to the first few days of a drifter dataset from the Bay of Bengal. Application of the length scale and aspect-ratio criteria minimizes errors (i) and (ii), and reduces the total number of clusters and so computational cost. The drifter-estimated kinematic properties map out a cyclonic mesoscale eddy with a surface, submesoscale fronts at its perimeter. Our analyses suggest methodological guidance for computing the two-dimensional kinematic properties in submesoscale flows, given the recently increasing quantity and quality of drifter observations, while also highlighting challenges and limitations.
    Description: This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research Initiative ASIRI under Grant N00014-13-1-0451 (SE and AM) and Grant N00014-13-1-0477 (VH and LC). The authors thank the captain and crew of the R/V Roger Revelle, and Andrew Lucas with the Multiscale Ocean Dynamics group at the Scripps Institution for Oceanography for providing the FastCTD data collected in 2015, which was supported by ONR Grant N00014-13-1-0489, as well as Eric D’Asaro for helpful discussions and Lance Braasch for assistance with the drifter dataset. AM and SE further thank NSF (Grant OCE-I434788) and ONR (Grant N00014-16-1-2470) for support. VH and LC were additionally supported by ONR Grants N00014-15-1-2286, N00014-14-1-0183, N00014-19-1-26-91 and NOAA Global Drifter Program (GDP) Grant NA15OAR4320071.
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Indian Ocean ; Eddies ; Frontogenesis/frontolysis ; Fronts ; Lagrangian circulation/transport ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean dynamics
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 35(17), (2022): 5465-5482, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0671.1.
    Description: Understanding the contribution of ocean circulation to glacial–interglacial climate change is a major focus of paleoceanography. Specifically, many have tried to determine whether the volumes and depths of Antarctic- and North Atlantic–sourced waters in the deep ocean changed at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼22–18 kyr BP) when atmospheric pCO2 concentrations were 100 ppm lower than the preindustrial. Measurements of sedimentary geochemical proxies are the primary way that these deep ocean structural changes have been reconstructed. However, the main proxies used to reconstruct LGM Atlantic water mass geometry provide conflicting results as to whether North Atlantic–sourced waters shoaled during the LGM. Despite this, a number of idealized modeling studies have been advanced to describe the physical processes resulting in shoaled North Atlantic waters. This paper aims to critically assess the approaches used to determine LGM Atlantic circulation geometry and lay out best practices for future work. We first compile existing proxy data and paleoclimate model output to deduce the processes responsible for setting the ocean distributions of geochemical proxies in the LGM Atlantic Ocean. We highlight how small-scale mixing processes in the ocean interior can decouple tracer distributions from the large-scale circulation, complicating the straightforward interpretation of geochemical tracers as proxies for water mass structure. Finally, we outline promising paths toward ascertaining the LGM circulation structure more clearly and deeply.
    Description: S.K.H. was supported by the Investment in Science Fund at WHOI and the John E. and Anne W. Sawyer Endowed Fund in Support of Scientific Staff. F.J.P. was supported by a Stanback Postdoctoral Fellowship at Caltech.
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: Arctic river deltas and deltaic near-shore zones represent important land–ocean transition zones influencing sediment dynamics and nutrient fluxes from permafrost-affected terrestrial ecosystems into the coastal Arctic Ocean. To accurately model fluvial carbon and freshwater export from rapidly changing river catchments as well as assess impacts of future change on the Arctic shelf and coastal ecosystems, we need to understand the sea floor characteristics and topographic variety of the coastal zones. To date, digital bathymetrical data from the poorly accessible, shallow, and large areas of the eastern Siberian Arctic shelves are sparse. We have digitized bathymetrical information for nearly 75 000 locations from large-scale (1:25 000–1:500 000) current and historical nautical maps of the Lena Delta and the Kolyma Gulf region in northeastern Siberia. We present the first detailed and seamless digital models of coastal zone bathymetry for both delta and gulf regions in 50 and 200 m spatial resolution. We validated the resulting bathymetry layers using a combination of our own water depth measurements and a collection of available depth measurements, which showed a strong correlation (r〉0.9). Our bathymetrical models will serve as an input for a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic–ecosystem model to better quantify fluvial and coastal carbon fluxes to the Arctic Ocean, but they may be useful for a range of other studies related to Arctic delta and near-shore dynamics such as modeling of submarine permafrost, near-shore sea ice, or shelf sediment transport. The new digital high-resolution bathymetry products are available on the PANGAEA data set repository for the Lena Delta (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.934045; Fuchs et al., 2021a) and Kolyma Gulf region (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.934049; Fuchs et al., 2021b), respectively. Likewise, the depth validation data are available on PANGAEA as well (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.933187; Fuchs et al., 2021c).
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2024-04-19
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2024-05-08
    Description: Data from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition allowed us to investigate the temporal dynamics of snowfall, snow accumulation and erosion in great detail for almost the whole accumulation season (November 2019 to May 2020). We computed cumulative snow water equivalent (SWE) over the sea ice based on snow depth and density retrievals from a SnowMicroPen and approximately weekly measured snow depths along fixed transect paths. We used the derived SWE from the snow cover to compare with precipitation sensors installed during MOSAiC. The data were also compared with ERA5 reanalysis snowfall rates for the drift track. We found an accumulated snow mass of 38 m SWE between the end of October 2019 and end of April 2020. The initial SWE over first-year ice relative to second-year ice increased from 50 % to 90 % by end of the investigation period. Further, we found that the Vaisala Present Weather Detector 22, an optical precipitation sensor, and installed on a railing on the top deck of research vessel Polarstern, was least affected by blowing snow and showed good agreements with SWE retrievals along the transect. On the contrary, the OTT Pluvio2 pluviometer and the OTT Parsivel2 laser disdrometer were largely affected by wind and blowing snow, leading to too high measured precipitation rates. These are largely reduced when eliminating drifting snow periods in the comparison. ERA5 reveals good timing of the snowfall events and good agreement with ground measurements with an overestimation tendency. Retrieved snowfall from the ship-based Ka-band ARM zenith radar shows good agreements with SWE of the snow cover and differences comparable to those of ERA5. Based on the results, we suggest the Ka-band radar-derived snowfall as an upper limit and the present weather detector on RV Polarstern as a lower limit of a cumulative snowfall range. Based on these findings, we suggest a cumulative snowfall of 72 to 107 m and a precipitation mass loss of the snow cover due to erosion and sublimation as between 47 % and 68 %, for the time period between 31 October 2019 and 26 April 2020. Extending this period beyond available snow cover measurements, we suggest a cumulative snowfall of 98-114 m.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a synthesis effort providing regular compilations of surface-to-bottom ocean biogeochemical bottle data, with an emphasis on seawater inorganic carbon chemistry and related variables determined through chemical analysis of seawater samples. GLODAPv2.2022 is an update of the previous version, GLODAPv2.2021 (Lauvset et al., 2021). The major changes are as follows: data from 96 new cruises were added, data coverage was extended until 2021, and for the first time we performed secondary quality control on all sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) data. In addition, a number of changes were made to data included in GLODAPv2.2021. These changes affect specifically the SF6 data, which are now subjected to secondary quality control, and carbon data measured onboard the RV Knorr in the Indian Ocean in 1994–1995 which are now adjusted using CRM measurements made at the time. GLODAPv2.2022 includes measurements from almost 1.4 million water samples from the global oceans collected on 1085 cruises. The data for the now 13 GLODAP core variables (salinity, oxygen, nitrate, silicate, phosphate, dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, pH, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CCl4, and SF6) have undergone extensive quality control with a focus on systematic evaluation of bias. The data are available in two formats: (i) as submitted by the data originator but converted to World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) exchange format and (ii) as a merged data product with adjustments applied to minimize bias. For the present annual update, adjustments for the 96 new cruises were derived by comparing those data with the data from the 989 quality controlled cruises in the GLODAPv2.2021 data product using crossover analysis. SF6 data from all cruises were evaluated by comparison with CFC-12 data measured on the same cruises. For nutrients and ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) chemistry comparisons to estimates based on empirical algorithms provided additional context for adjustment decisions. The adjustments that we applied are intended to remove potential biases from errors related to measurement, calibration, and data handling practices without removing known or likely time trends or variations in the variables evaluated. The compiled and adjusted data product is believed to be consistent to better than 0.005 in salinity, 1 % in oxygen, 2 % in nitrate, 2 % in silicate, 2 % in phosphate, 4 μmol kg-1 in dissolved inorganic carbon, 4 μmol kg-1 in total alkalinity, 0.01–0.02 in pH (depending on region), and 5 % in the halogenated transient tracers. The other variables included in the compilation, such as isotopic tracers and discrete CO2 fugacity (fCO2), were not subjected to bias comparison or adjustments.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and future methane emissions. Here we present the Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD), a land cover dataset based on an expert assessment, extrapolated using random forest modelling from available spatial datasets of climate, topography, soils, permafrost conditions, vegetation, wetlands, and surface water extents and dynamics. In BAWLD, we estimate the fractional coverage of five wetland, seven lake, and three river classes within 0.5 × 0.5∘ grid cells that cover the northern boreal and tundra biomes (17 % of the global land surface). Land cover classes were defined using criteria that ensured distinct methane emissions among classes, as indicated by a co-developed comprehensive dataset of methane flux observations. In BAWLD, wetlands occupied 3.2 × 106 km2 (14 % of domain) with a 95 % confidence interval between 2.8 and 3.8 × 106 km2. Bog, fen, and permafrost bog were the most abundant wetland classes, covering ∼ 28 % each of the total wetland area, while the highest-methane-emitting marsh and tundra wetland classes occupied 5 % and 12 %, respectively. Lakes, defined to include all lentic open-water ecosystems regardless of size, covered 1.4 × 106 km2 (6 % of domain). Low-methane-emitting large lakes (〉10 km2) and glacial lakes jointly represented 78 % of the total lake area, while high-emitting peatland and yedoma lakes covered 18 % and 4 %, respectively. Small (〈0.1 km2) glacial, peatland, and yedoma lakes combined covered 17 % of the total lake area but contributed disproportionally to the overall spatial uncertainty in lake area with a 95 % confidence interval between 0.15 and 0.38 × 106 km2. Rivers and streams were estimated to cover 0.12  × 106 km2 (0.5 % of domain), of which 8 % was associated with high-methane-emitting headwaters that drain organic-rich landscapes. Distinct combinations of spatially co-occurring wetland and lake classes were identified across the BAWLD domain, allowing for the mapping of “wetscapes” that have characteristic methane emission magnitudes and sensitivities to climate change at regional scales. With BAWLD, we provide a dataset which avoids double-accounting of wetland, lake, and river extents and which includes confidence intervals for each land cover class. As such, BAWLD will be suitable for many hydrological and biogeochemical modelling and upscaling efforts for the northern boreal and arctic region, in particular those aimed at improving assessments of current and future methane emissions. Data are freely available at https://doi.org/10.18739/A2C824F9X (Olefeldt et al., 2021).
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: Lakes in permafrost regions are dynamiclandscape components and play an important role for climatechange feedbacks. Lake processes such as mineralizationand flocculation of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), oneof the main carbon fractions in lakes, contribute to thegreenhouse effect and are part of the global carbon cycle.These processes are in the focus of climate research, butstudies so far are limited to specific study regions. Inour synthesis, we analyzed 2167 water samples from 1833lakes across the Arctic in permafrost regions of Alaska,Canada, Greenland, and Siberia to provide first pan-Arcticinsights for linkages between DOC concentrations andthe environment. Using published data and unpublisheddatasets from the author team, we report regional DOCdifferences linked to latitude, permafrost zones, ecoregions,geology, near-surface soil organic carbon contents, andground ice classification of each lake region. The lakeDOC concentrations in our dataset range from 0 to1130 mg L−1(10.8 mg L−1median DOC concentration).Regarding the permafrost regions of our synthesis, wefound median lake DOC concentrations of 12.4 mg L−1(Siberia), 12.3 mg L−1(Alaska), 10.3 mg L−1(Greenland),and 4.5 mg L−1(Canada). Our synthesis shows a significantrelationship between lake DOC concentration and lakeecoregion. We found higher lake DOC concentrationsat boreal permafrost sites compared to tundra sites. Wefound significantly higher DOC concentrations in lakesin regions with ice-rich syngenetic permafrost deposits(yedoma) compared to non-yedoma lakes and a weak butsignificant relationship between soil organic carbon contentand lake DOC concentration as well as between ground icecontent and lake DOC. Our pan-Arctic dataset shows that theDOC concentration of a lake depends on its environmentalproperties, especially on permafrost extent and ecoregion, aswell as vegetation, which is the most important driver of lakeDOC in this study. This new dataset will be fundamental toquantify a pan-Arctic lake DOC pool for estimations of theimpact of lake DOC on the global carbon cycle and climatechange.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2024-04-11
    Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. The risk of carbon emissions from permafrost ground is linked to ground temperature and thus in particular to thermal insulation by vegetation and organic soil layers in summer and snow cover in winter. This ground insulation is strongly influenced by the presence of large herbivorous animals browsing for food. In this study, we examine the potential impact of large herbivore presence on the ground carbon storage in thermokarst landscapes of northeastern Siberia. Our aim is to understand how intensive animal grazing may affect permafrost thaw and hence organic matter decomposition, leading to different ground carbon storage, which is significant in the active layer. Therefore, we analysed sites with differing large herbivore grazing intensity in the Pleistocene Park near Chersky and measured maximum thaw depth, total organic carbon content and decomposition state by δ13C isotope analysis. In addition, we determined sediment grain size composition as well as ice and water content. We found the thaw depth to be shallower and carbon storage to be higher in intensively grazed areas compared to extensively and non-grazed sites in the same thermokarst basin. The intensive grazing presumably leads to a more stable thermal ground regime and thus to increased carbon storage in the thermokarst deposits and active layer. However, the high carbon content found within the upper 20 cm on intensively grazed sites could also indicate higher carbon input rather than reduced decomposition, which requires further studies. We connect our findings to more animal trampling in winter, which causes snow disturbance and cooler winter ground temperatures during the average annual 225 days below freezing. This winter cooling overcompensates ground warming due to the lower insulation associated with shorter heavily grazed vegetation during the average annual 140 thaw days. We conclude that intensive grazing influences the carbon storage capacities of permafrost areas and hence might be an actively manageable instrument to reduce net carbon emission from these sites. 〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2024-04-29
    Description: In this study, the first fully continuous monitoring of water vapour isotopic composition at Neumayer Station III, Antarctica, during the 2-year period from February 2017 to January 2019 is presented. Seasonal and synoptic-scale variations in both stable water isotopes H182O and HDO are reported, and their links to variations in key meteorological variables are analysed. In addition, the diurnal cycle of isotope variations during the summer months (December and January 2017/18 and 2018/19) has been examined. Changes in local temperature and specific humidity are the main drivers for the variability in δ18O and δD in vapour at Neumayer Station III, on both seasonal and shorter timescales. In contrast to the measured δ18O and δD variations, no seasonal cycle in the Deuterium excess signal (d) in vapour is detected. However, a rather high uncertainty in measured d values especially in austral winter limits the confidence of this finding. Overall, the d signal shows a stronger inverse correlation with specific humidity than with temperature, and this inverse correlation between d and specific humidity is stronger for the cloudy-sky conditions than for clear-sky conditions during summertime. Back-trajectory simulations performed with the FLEXPART model show that seasonal and synoptic variations in δ18O and δD in vapour coincide with changes in the main sources of water vapour transported to Neumayer Station III. In general, moisture transport pathways from the east lead to higher temperatures and more enriched δ18O values in vapour, while weather situations with southerly winds lead to lower temperatures and more depleted δ18O values. However, on several occasions, δ18O variations linked to wind direction changes were observed, which were not accompanied by a corresponding temperature change. Comparing isotopic compositions of water vapour at Neumayer Station III and snow samples taken in the vicinity of the station reveals almost identical slopes, both for the δ18O–δD relation and for the temperature–δ18O relation.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 34
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 34(18), pp. 7373-7388, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-04-29
    Description: Climate variability occurs over wide ranges of spatial and temporal scales. It exhibits a complex spatial covariance structure, which depends on geographic location (e.g., tropics vs extratropics) and also consists of a superposition of (i) components with gradually decaying positive correlation functions and (ii) teleconnections that often involve anticorrelations. In addition, there are indications that the spatial covariance structure depends on frequency. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal covariance structure of climate variability would require an extensive set of statistical diagnostics. Therefore, it is often desirable to characterize the covariance structure by a simple summarizing metric that is easy to compute from datasets. Such summarizing metrics are useful, for example, in the context of comparisons between climate models or between models and observations. Here we introduce a frequency-dependent version of a simple measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom. The measure is based on the temporal variance of the global average of some climate variable, and its novel aspect consists in its frequency dependence. We also provide a clear geometric interpretation of the measure. Its easy applicability is demonstrated using near-surface temperature and precipitation fields obtained from a paleoclimate model simulation. This application reveals a distinct scaling behavior of the spatial degrees of freedom as a function of frequency, ranging from monthly to millennial scales.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2024-04-19
    Description: We combine satellite data products to provide a first and general overview of the physical sea ice conditions along the drift of the international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition and a comparison with previous years (2005–2006 to 2018–2019). We find that the MOSAiC drift was around 20 % faster than the climatological mean drift, as a consequence of large-scale low-pressure anomalies prevailing around the Barents–Kara–Laptev sea region between January and March. In winter (October–April), satellite observations show that the sea ice in the vicinity of the Central Observatory (CO; 50 km radius) was rather thin compared to the previous years along the same trajectory. Unlike ice thickness, satellite-derived sea ice concentration, lead frequency and snow thickness during winter months were close to the long-term mean with little variability. With the onset of spring and decreasing distance to the Fram Strait, variability in ice concentration and lead activity increased. In addition, the frequency and strength of deformation events (divergence, convergence and shear) were higher during summer than during winter. Overall, we find that sea ice conditions observed within 5 km distance of the CO are representative for the wider (50 and 100 km) surroundings. An exception is the ice thickness; here we find that sea ice within 50 km radius of the CO was thinner than sea ice within a 100 km radius by a small but consistent factor (4 %) for successive monthly averages. Moreover, satellite acquisitions indicate that the formation of large melt ponds began earlier on the MOSAiC floe than on neighbouring floes.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 36
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Copernicus, 2021, pp. 1-34, ISSN: 1561-8633
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. The combined effect of hot and dry extremes can have disastrous consequences for the society, economy, and the environment. While a significant number of studies have been conducted regarding the variability of the individual hot or dry extremes in Romania, the evaluation of the combined effect of these extremes (e.g. compound effect) is still lacking for this region. Thus, in this study we have assessed the spatio-temporal variability and trends of hot and dry summers in the eastern part of Europe, focusing on Romania, between 1950 and 2020 and we have analyzed the relationship between the frequency of hot summers and the prevailing large-scale atmospheric circulation. The length, spatial extent and frequency of HWs in Romania has increased significantly over the last 70 years, while for the drought conditions no significant changes have been observed. The rate of increase in the frequency and spatial extent of HWs has accelerated significantly after the 1990’s, while the smallest number of HWs was observed between 1970 and 1985. The hottest years, in terms of heatwave duration and frequency, were 2007, 2012, 2015, and 2019. One of the key drivers of hot summers, over our analyzed region, is the prevailing large-scale circulation, featuring an anticyclonic circulation over the central and eastern parts of Europe and enhanced atmospheric blocking activity associated with positive temperature anomalies underneath. We conclude that our study can help improve our understanding of the spatio-temporal variability of hot and dry summers, especially at the regional scale, as well as their driving mechanisms which might lead to a better predictability of these extreme events. 〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2024-05-14
    Description: The thermokarst lakes of permafrost regions play a major role in the global carbon cycle. These lakes are sources of methane to the atmosphere although the methane flux is restricted by an ice cover for most of the year. How methane concentrations and fluxes in these waters are affected by the presence of an ice cover is poorly understood. To relate water body morphology, ice formation and methane to each other, we studied the ice of three different water bodies in locations typical of the transition of permafrost from land to ocean in a continuous permafrost coastal region in Siberia. In total, 11 ice cores were analyzed as records of the freezing process and methane composition during the winter season. The three water bodies differed in terms of connectivity to the sea, which affected fall freezing. The first was a bay underlain by submarine permafrost (Tiksi Bay, BY), the second a shallow thermokarst lagoon cut off from the sea in winter (Polar Fox Lagoon, LG) and the third a land-locked freshwater thermokarst lake (Goltsovoye Lake, LK). Ice on all water bodies was mostly methane-supersaturated with respect to atmospheric equilibrium concentration, except for three cores from the isolated lake. In the isolated thermokarst lake, ebullition from actively thawing basin slopes resulted in the localized integration of methane into winter ice. Stable δ13C-CH4 isotope signatures indicated that methane in the lagoon ice was oxidized to concentrations close to or below the calculated atmospheric equilibrium concentration. Increasing salinity during winter freezing led to a micro-environment on the lower ice surface where methane oxidation occurred and the lagoon ice functioned as a methane sink. In contrast, the ice of the coastal marine environment was slightly supersaturated with methane, consistent with the brackish water below. Our interdisciplinary process study shows how water body morphology affects ice formation which mitigates methane fluxes to the atmosphere.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: This paper reports the assimilation of cloud optical depth datasets into a variational data assimilation system to improve cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel analysis in extreme weather events for improving forecasts. A cloud optical depth forward operator was developed and implemented in the Space and Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS), a multiscale three-dimensional variational analysis system. Using this improved analysis system, the NOAA GOES-15 DCOMP (Daytime Cloud Optical and Microphysical Properties) cloud optical depth products were assimilated to improve the microphysical states. For an eight-day period of extreme weather events in September 2013 in Colorado, the United States, the impact of the cloud optical depth assimilation on the analysis results and forecasts was evaluated. The DCOMP products improved the cloud ice and cloud water predictions significantly in convective and lower levels. The DCOMP products also reduced errors in temperature and relative humidity data at the top (250–150 hPa) and bottom (850–700 hPa) layers. With the cloud ice improvement at higher layers, the DCOMP products provided better forecasts of cloud liquid at low layers (900–700 hPa), temperature and wind at all layers, and relative humidity at middle and bottom layers. Furthermore, for this extreme weather event, both equitable threat score (ETS) and bias were improved throughout the 12 h period, with the most significant improvement observed in the first 3 h. This study will raise the expectation of cloud optical depth product assimilation in operational applications.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2021-08-02
    Description: The NOAA National Water Model (NWM), maintained and executed by the NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Water Prediction, provides operational hydrological guidance throughout the Contiguous United States. Based on the WRF-Hydro model architecture developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the NWM was recently modified for semi-arid domains, by permitting it to explicitly resolve infiltration from ephemeral channels into the underlying channel bed as an added model sink term. To analyze the added value of channel infiltration in semi-arid environments, we calibrated NWM v2.1 (with the channel infiltration function) to 56 independent basins in the western CONUS, following identical calibration methods as the pre-operational NWM v2.1 (not including channel infiltration). Calibration of the model consists of two parts, including 1) calibration of channel infiltration only with other parameters set to the calibrated parameters used for pre-operational NWM v2.1 and 2) calibration of all parameters including channel infiltration with settings otherwise equivalent to the calibration of NWM v2.1. The calibrated channel-infiltration enhanced NWM improves predictive skill compared to the control NWM in 85% of evaluated basins, for the calibration period. The current NWM settings for physical processes and the biases of the calibration scheme limit model performance in semi-arid environments. To explore whether channel infiltration paired with an alternative calibration scheme could address these limitations, NWM v2.1 was calibrated with a new objective function in selected basins. We found that this updated objective function could ameliorate model biases in some semi-arid environments.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The importance of Antarctic sea ice and Southern Ocean warming has come into the focus of polar research during the last couple of decades. Especially around West Antarctica, where warm water masses approach the continent and where sea ice has declined, the distribution and evolution of sea ice play a critical role in the stability of nearby ice shelves. Organic geochemical analyses of marine seafloor surface sediments from the Antarctic continental margin allow an evaluation of the applicability of biomarker-based sea-ice and ocean temperature reconstructions in these climate-sensitive areas. We analysed highly branched isoprenoids (HBIs), such as the sea-ice proxy IPSO25 and phytoplankton-derived HBI-trienes, as well as phytosterols and isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), which are established tools for the assessment of primary productivity and ocean temperatures respectively. The combination of IPSO25 with a phytoplankton marker (i.e. the PIPSO25 index) permits semi-quantitative sea-ice reconstructions and avoids misleading over- or underestimations of sea-ice cover. Comparisons of the PIPSO25-based sea-ice distribution patterns and TEX86L- and RI-OH′-derived ocean temperatures with (1) sea-ice concentrations obtained from satellite observations and (2) instrument measurements of sea surface and subsurface temperatures corroborate the general capability of these proxies to determine oceanic key variables properly. This is further supported by model data. We also highlight specific aspects and limitations that need to be taken into account for the interpretation of such biomarker data and discuss the potential of IPSO25 as an indicator for the former occurrence of platelet ice and/or the export of ice-shelf water.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9324
    Electronic ISSN: 1814-9332
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Forest fires modify soil organic carbon and suppress soil respiration for many decades after the initial disturbance. The associated changes in soil autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration from the time of the forest fire, however, are less well characterized. The FireResp model predicts soil autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration parameterized with a novel dataset across a fire chronosequence in the Yukon and Northwest Territories of Canada. The dataset consisted of soil incubation experiments and field measurements of soil respiration and soil carbon stocks. The FireResp model contains submodels that consider a Q10 (exponential) model of respiration compared to models of heterotrophic respiration using Michaelis–Menten kinetics parameterized with soil microbial carbon. For model evaluation we applied the Akaike information criterion and compared predicted patterns in components of soil respiration across the chronosequence. Parameters estimated with data from the 5 cm soil depth had better model–data comparisons than parameters estimated with data from the 10 cm soil depth. The model–data fit was improved by including parameters estimated from soil incubation experiments. Models that incorporated microbial carbon with Michaelis–Menten kinetics reproduced patterns in autotrophic and heterotrophic soil respiration components across the chronosequence. Autotrophic respiration was associated with aboveground tree biomass at more recently burned sites, but this association was less robust at older sites in the chronosequence. Our results provide support for more structured soil respiration models than standard Q10 exponential models.
    Print ISSN: 1991-959X
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-9603
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Droughts are widespread disasters worldwide and are concurrently influenced by multiple large-scale climate signals. This is particularly true over Japan, where drought has strong heterogeneity due to multiple factors such as monsoon, topography, and ocean circulations. Regional heterogeneity poses challenges for drought prediction and management. To overcome this difficulty, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of teleconnection between climate signals and homogeneous drought zones over Japan. First, droughts are characterized by simulated soil moisture from land surface model during 1958-2012. The Mclust toolkit, distinct empirical orthogonal function, and wavelet coherence analysis are used, respectively, to investigate the homogeneous drought zone, principal component of each homogeneous zone, and teleconnection between climate signals and drought. Results indicate that nine homogeneous drought zones with different characteristics are defined and quantified. Among these nine zones, zone-1 is dominated by extreme drought events. Zone-2 and zone-6 are typical representatives of spring droughts, while zone-7 is wet for most of the period. The Hokkaido region is divided into wetter zone-4 and drier zone-9. Zone-3, zone-5 and zone-8 are distinguished by the topography. The analyses also reveal almost nine zones have a high level of homogeneity, with more than 60% explained variance. Also, these nine zones are dominated by different large-scale climate signals: the Arctic Oscillation has the strongest impact on zone-1, zone-7, and zone-8; the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on zone-3, zone-4, and zone-6 is significant; zone-2 and zone-9 are both dominated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation; El Niño-Southern Oscillation dominates zone-5. The results will be valuable for drought management and drought prevention.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Aeromagnetic exploration is an important method of geophysical exploration. We study the compensation method of the towed bird system and establish the towed bird interference model. Due to the geomagnetic gradient changing greatly, the geomagnetic gradient is considered in the towed bird interference model. In this paper, we model the geomagnetic field gradient and analyze the influence of the towed bird system on the aeromagnetic compensation results. Finally, we apply the ridge regression method to solve the problem. We verify the feasibility of this compensation method through actual flight tests and further improve the data quality of the towed bird interference.
    Print ISSN: 2193-0856
    Electronic ISSN: 2193-0864
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The Arctic is exposed to even faster temperature changes than most other areas on Earth. Constantly increasing temperature will lead to thawing permafrost and changes in the methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands. One of the places exposed to those changes is the Abisko–Stordalen Mire in northern Sweden, where climate and vegetation studies have been conducted since the 1970s. In our study, we analyzed field-scale methane emissions measured by the eddy covariance method at Abisko–Stordalen Mire for 3 years (2014–2016). The site is a subarctic mire mosaic of palsas, thawing palsas, fully thawed fens, and open water bodies. A bimodal wind pattern prevalent at the site provides an ideal opportunity to measure mire patches with different permafrost status with one flux measurement system. The flux footprint for westerly winds was dominated by elevated palsa plateaus, while the footprint was almost equally distributed between palsas and thawing bog-like areas for easterly winds. As these patches are exposed to the same climatic and weather conditions, we analyzed the differences in the responses of their methane emission for environmental parameters. The methane fluxes followed a similar annual cycle over the 3 study years, with a gentle rise during spring and a decrease during autumn, without emission bursts at either end of the ice-free season. The peak emission during the ice-free season differed significantly for the two mire areas with different permafrost status: the palsa mire emitted 19 mg-C m−2 d−1 and the thawing wet sector 40 mg-C m−2 d−1. Factors controlling the methane emission were analyzed using generalized linear models. The main driver for methane fluxes was peat temperature for both wind sectors. Soil water content above the water table emerged as an explanatory variable for the 3 years for western sectors and the year 2016 in the eastern sector. The water table level showed a significant correlation with methane emission for the year 2016 as well. Gross primary production, however, did not show a significant correlation with methane emissions. Annual methane emissions were estimated based on four different gap-filing methods. The different methods generally resulted in very similar annual emissions. The mean annual emission based on all models was 3.1 ± 0.3 g-C m−2 a−1 for the western sector and 5.5 ± 0.5 g-C m−2 a−1 for the eastern sector. The average annual emissions, derived from these data and a footprint climatology, were 2.7 ± 0.5 and 8.2 ± 1.5 g-C m−2 a−1 for the palsa and thawing surfaces, respectively. Winter fluxes were relatively high, contributing 27 %–45 % to the annual emissions.
    Print ISSN: 1726-4170
    Electronic ISSN: 1726-4189
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: This work presents the integration of a gas-phase and particulate atmospheric emission inventory (AEI) for Argentina in high spatial resolution (0.025∘×0.025∘; approx. 2.5 km×2.5 km) considering monthly variability from 1995 to 2020. The new inventory, called GEAA-AEIv3.0M, includes the following activities: energy production, fugitive emissions from oil and gas production, industrial fuel consumption and production, transport (road, maritime, and air), agriculture, livestock production, manufacturing, residential, commercial, and biomass and agricultural waste burning. The following species, grouped by atmospheric reactivity, are considered: (i) greenhouse gases (GHGs) – CO2, CH4, and N2O; (ii) ozone precursors – CO, NOx (NO+NO2), and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs); (iii) acidifying gases – NH3 and SO2; and (iv) particulate matter (PM) – PM10, PM2.5, total suspended particles (TSPs), and black carbon (BC). The main objective of the GEAA-AEIv3.0M high-resolution emission inventory is to provide temporally resolved emission maps to support air quality and climate modeling oriented to evaluate pollutant mitigation strategies by local governments. This is of major concern, especially in countries where air quality monitoring networks are scarce, and the development of regional and seasonal emissions inventories would result in remarkable improvements in the time and space chemical prediction achieved by air quality models. Despite distinguishing among different sectoral and activity databases as well as introducing a novel spatial distribution approach based on census radii, our high-resolution GEAA-AEIv3.0M shows equivalent national-wide total emissions compared to the Third National Communication of Argentina (TNCA), which compiles annual GHG emissions from 1990 through 2014 (agreement within ±7.5 %). However, the GEAA-AEIv3.0M includes acidifying gases and PM species not considered in TNCA. Temporal comparisons were also performed against two international databases: Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) and EDGAR HTAPv5.0 for several pollutants; for EDGAR it also includes a spatial comparison. The agreement was acceptable within less than 30 % for most of the pollutants and activities, although a 〉90 % discrepancy was obtained for methane from fuel production and fugitive emissions and 〉120 % for biomass burning. Finally, the updated seasonal series clearly showed the pollution reduction due to the COVID-19 lockdown during the first quarter of year 2020 with respect to same months in previous years. Through an open-access data repository, we present the GEAA-AEIv3.0M inventory as the largest and more detailed spatial resolution dataset for the Argentine Republic, which includes monthly gridded emissions for 12 species and 15 stors between 1995 and 2020. The datasets are available at https://doi.org/10.17632/d6xrhpmzdp.2 (Puliafito et al., 2021), under a CC-BY 4 license.
    Print ISSN: 1866-3508
    Electronic ISSN: 1866-3516
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2021-09-02
    Description: The provision of climate services has the potential to generate adaptive capacity and help coffee farmers become or remain profitable by integrating climate information in a risk-management framework. Yet, in order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to identify the local demand for climate information, the relationships between coffee yield and climate variables, farmers’ perceptions, and to examine the potential actions that can be realistically put in place by farmers at the local level. In this study, we assessed the climate information demands from coffee farmers and their perception on the climate impacts to coffee yield in the Samalá watershed in Guatemala. After co-identifying the related candidate climate predictors, we propose an objective, flexible forecast system for coffee yield based on precipitation. The system, known as NextGen, analyzes multiple historical climate drivers to identify candidate predictors, and provides both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts for the target season. To illustrate the approach, a NextGen implementation is conducted in the Samalá watershed in southwestern Guatemala. The results suggest that accumulated June-July-August precipitation provides the highest predictive skill associated with coffee yield for this region. In addition to a formal cross-validated skill assessment, retrospective forecasts for the period 1989-2009 were compared to agriculturalists’ perception on the climate impacts to coffee yield at the farm level. We conclude with examples of how demand-based climate service provision in this location can inform adaptation strategies like optimum shade, pest control, and fertilization schemes months in advance. These potential adaptation strategies were validated by local agricultural technicians at the study site.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: This paper presents a new technique to derive thermospheric temperature from space-based disk observations of far ultraviolet airglow. The technique, guided by findings from principal component analysis of synthetic daytime Lyman–Birge–Hopfield (LBH) disk emissions, uses a ratio of the emissions in two spectral channels that together span the LBH (2,0) band to determine the change in band shape with respect to a change in the rotational temperature of N2. The two-channel-ratio approach limits representativeness and measurement error by only requiring measurement of the relative magnitudes between two spectral channels and not radiometrically calibrated intensities, simplifying the forward model from a full radiative transfer model to a vibrational–rotational band model. It is shown that the derived temperature should be interpreted as a column-integrated property as opposed to a temperature at a specified altitude without utilization of a priori information of the thermospheric temperature profile. The two-channel-ratio approach is demonstrated using NASA GOLD Level 1C disk emission data for the period of 2–8 November 2018 during which a moderate geomagnetic storm has occurred. Due to the lack of independent thermospheric temperature observations, the efficacy of the approach is validated through comparisons of the column-integrated temperature derived from GOLD Level 1C data with the GOLD Level 2 temperature product as well as temperatures from first principle and empirical models. The storm-time thermospheric response manifested in the column-integrated temperature is also shown to corroborate well with hemispherically integrated Joule heating rates, ESA SWARM mass density at 460 km, and GOLD Level 2 column O/N2 ratio.
    Print ISSN: 1867-1381
    Electronic ISSN: 1867-8548
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: Non-Gaussian forecast error is a challenge for ensemble-based data assimilation (DA), particularly for more nonlinear convective dynamics. In this study, we investigate the degree of the non-Gaussianity of forecast error distributions at 1 km resolution using a 1000-member ensemble Kalman filter, and how it is affected by the DA update frequency and observation number. Regional numerical weather prediction experiments are performed with the SCALE (Scalable Computing for Advanced Library and Environment) model and the LETKF (local ensemble transform Kalman filter) assimilating phased array radar observations every 30 s. The results show that non-Gaussianity develops rapidly within convective clouds and is sensitive to the DA frequency and the number of assimilated observations. The non-Gaussianity is reduced by up to 40 % when the assimilation window is shortened from 5 min to 30 s, particularly for vertical velocity and radar reflectivity.
    Print ISSN: 1023-5809
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7946
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: The observing system design of multidisciplinary field measurements involves a variety of considerations on logistics, safety, and science objectives. Typically, this is done based on investigator intuition and designs of prior field measurements. However, there is potential for considerable increases in efficiency, safety, and scientific success by integrating numerical simulations in the design process. Here, we present a novel numerical simulation–environmental response function (NS–ERF) approach to observing system simulation experiments that aids surface–atmosphere synthesis at the interface of mesoscale and microscale meteorology. In a case study we demonstrate application of the NS–ERF approach to optimize the Chequamegon Heterogeneous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 (CHEESEHEAD19). During CHEESEHEAD19 pre-field simulation experiments, we considered the placement of 20 eddy covariance flux towers, operations for 72 h of low-altitude flux aircraft measurements, and integration of various remote sensing data products. A 2 h high-resolution large eddy simulation created a cloud-free virtual atmosphere for surface and meteorological conditions characteristic of the field campaign domain and period. To explore two specific design hypotheses we super-sampled this virtual atmosphere as observed by 13 different yet simultaneous observing system designs consisting of virtual ground, airborne, and satellite observations. We then analyzed these virtual observations through ERFs to yield an optimal aircraft flight strategy for augmenting a stratified random flux tower network in combination with satellite retrievals. We demonstrate how the novel NS–ERF approach doubled CHEESEHEAD19's potential to explore energy balance closure and spatial patterning science objectives while substantially simplifying logistics. Owing to its modular extensibility, NS–ERF lends itself to optimizing observing system designs also for natural climate solutions, emission inventory validation, urban air quality, industry leak detection, and multi-species applications, among other use cases.
    Print ISSN: 1867-1381
    Electronic ISSN: 1867-8548
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: This article summarises the results of an analysis of solar radio bursts (SRBs) detected by the Compound Astronomical Low-cost Low-frequency Instrument for Spectroscopy and Transportable Observatory (CALLISTO) spectrometer hosted by the University of Rwanda. The data analysed were detected during the first year (2014–2015) of the instrument operation. Using quick plots provided by the e-CALLISTO website, a total of 201 intense and well-separated solar radio bursts detected by the CALLISTO station located in Rwanda, are found consisting of 4 type II, 175 type III and 22 type IV radio bursts. It is found that all analysed type II and ∼ 37 % of type III bursts are associated with impulsive solar flares, while the minority (∼ 13 %) of type IV radio bursts are associated with solar flares. Furthermore, all type II radio bursts are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs), ∼ 44 % of type III bursts are associated with CMEs, and the majority (∼ 82 %) of type IV bursts were accompanied by CMEs. With aid of the atmospheric imaging assembly (AIA) images on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), the location of open magnetic field lines of non-flare-associated type III radio bursts are shown. The same images are used to show the magnetic loops in the solar corona for type IV radio bursts observed in the absence of solar flares and/or CMEs. Findings from this study indicate that analysis of SRBs that are observed from the ground can provide a significant contribution to the early diagnosis of solar transients phenomena, such as solar flares and CMEs, which are major drivers of potential space weather hazards.
    Print ISSN: 0992-7689
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-0576
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Authorship conflicts are a common occurrence in academic publishing, and they can have serious implications for the careers and well-being of the involved researchers as well as the collective success of research organizations. In addition to not inviting relevant contributors to co-author a paper, the order of authors as well as honorary, gift, and ghost authors are all widely recognized problems related to authorship. Unfair authorship practices disproportionately affect those lower in the power hierarchies – early career researchers, women, researchers from the Global South, and other minoritized groups. Here we propose an approach to preparing author lists based on clear, transparent, and timely communication. This approach aims to minimize the potential for late-stage authorship conflicts during manuscript preparation by facilitating timely and transparent decisions on potential co-authors and their responsibilities. Furthermore, our approach can help avoid imbalances between contributions and credits in published papers by recording planned and executed responsibilities. We present authorship guidelines which also include a novel authorship form along with the documentation of the formulation process for a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary center with more than 250 researchers. Other research groups, departments, and centers can use or build on this template to design their own authorship guidelines as a practical way to promote fair authorship practices.
    Print ISSN: 2569-7102
    Electronic ISSN: 2569-7110
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2021-11-01
    Description: Two feature-based verification methods, thus far only used for the diagnostic evaluation of atmospheric models, have been applied to compare ∼7 km resolution pre-operational analyses of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations to a 1 km gridded satellite-derived Chl-a concentration product. The aim of this study was to assess the value of applying such methods to ocean models. Chl-a bloom objects were identified in both data sets for the 2019 bloom season (1 March to 31 July). These bloom objects were analysed as discrete (2-D) spatial features, but also as space–time (3-D) features, providing the means of defining the onset, duration and demise of distinct bloom episodes and the season as a whole. The new feature-based verification methods help reveal that the model analyses are not able to represent small coastal bloom objects, given the coarser definition of the coastline, also wrongly producing more bloom objects in deeper Atlantic waters. Model analyses' concentrations are somewhat higher overall. The bias manifests itself in the size of the model analysis bloom objects, which tend to be larger than the satellite-derived bloom objects. The onset of the bloom season is delayed by 26 d in the model analyses, but the season also persists for another month beyond the diagnosed end. The season was diagnosed to be 119 d long in the model analyses, compared to 117 d from the satellite product. Geographically, the model analyses and satellite-derived bloom objects do not necessarily exist in a specific location at the same time and only overlap occasionally.
    Print ISSN: 1812-0784
    Electronic ISSN: 1812-0792
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The source apportionment of aerosol iron (Fe), including natural and combustion Fe, is an important issue because aerosol Fe can enhance oceanic primary production in the surface ocean. Based on our previous finding that combustion Fe emitted by evaporation processes has Fe isotope ratios (δ56Fe) that are approximately 4 ‰ lower than those of natural Fe, this study aimed to distinguish aerosol Fe sources over the northwestern Pacific using two size-fractionated marine aerosols. The δ56Fe values of fine and coarse particles from the eastern or northern Pacific were found to be similar to each other, ranging from 0.0 ‰ to 0.4 ‰. Most of them were close to the crustal average, suggesting the dominance of natural Fe. On the other hand, particles from the direction of East Asia demonstrated lower δ56Fe values in fine particles (−0.5 ‰ to −2.2 ‰) than in coarse particles (on average −0.02 ± 0.12 ‰). The correlations between the δ56Fe values and the enrichment factors of lead and vanadium suggested that the low δ56Fe values obtained were due to the presence of combustion Fe. The δ56Fe values of the soluble component of fine particles in this region were lower than the total, indicating the preferential dissolution of combustion Fe. In addition, we found a negative correlation between the δ56Fe value and the fractional Fe solubility in air masses from the direction of East Asia. These results suggest that the presence of combustion Fe is an important factor in controlling the fractional Fe solubility in air masses from the direction of East Asia, whereas other factors are more important in the other areas. By assuming typical δ56Fe values for combustion and natural Fe, the contribution of combustion Fe to the total (acid-digested) Fe in aerosols was estimated to reach up to 50 % of fine and 21 % of bulk (coarse + fine) particles in air masses from the direction of East Asia, whereas its contribution was small in the other areas. The contribution of combustion Fe to the soluble Fe component estimated for one sample was approximately twice as large as the total, indicating the importance of combustion Fe as a soluble Fe source despite lower emissions than the natural. These isotope-based estimates were compared with those estimated using an atmospheric chemical transport model (IMPACT), in which the fractions of combustion Fe in fine particles, especially in air masses from the direction of East Asia, were consistent with each other. In contrast, the model estimated a relatively large contribution from combustion Fe in coarse particles, probably because of the different characteristics of combustion Fe that are included in the model calculation and the isotope-based estimation. This highlights the importance of observational data on δ56Fe for size-fractionated aerosols to scale the combustion Fe emission by the model. The average deposition fluxes of soluble Fe to the surface ocean were 1.4 and 2.9 nmol m−2 d−1 from combustion and natural aerosols, respectively, in air masses from the direction of East Asia, which suggests that combustion Fe could be an important Fe source to the surface seawater among other Fe sources. Distinguishing Fe sources using the δ56Fe values of marine aerosols and seawater is anticipated to lead to a more quantitative understanding of the Fe cycle in the atmosphere and surface ocean.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Improvements in our capability to reconstruct ancient surface-ocean conditions based on organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages from the Southern Ocean provide an opportunity to better establish past position, strength and oceanography of the subtropical front (STF). Here, we aim to reconstruct the late Eocene to early Miocene (37–20 Ma) depositional and palaeoceanographic history of the STF in the context of the evolving Tasmanian Gateway as well as the potential influence of Antarctic circumpolar flow and intense waxing and waning of ice. We approach this by combining information from seismic lines (revisiting existing data and generating new marine palynological data from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 1168A) in the western Tasmanian continental slope. We apply improved taxonomic insights and palaeoecological models to reconstruct the sea surface palaeoenvironmental evolution. Late Eocene–early Oligocene (37–30.5 Ma) assemblages show a progressive transition from dominant terrestrial palynomorphs and inner-neritic dinocyst taxa as well as cysts produced by heterotrophic dinoflagellates to predominantly outer-neritic/oceanic autotrophic taxa. This transition reflects the progressive deepening of the western Tasmanian continental margin, an interpretation supported by our new seismic investigations. The dominance of autotrophic species like Spiniferites spp. and Operculodinium spp. reflects relatively oligotrophic conditions, like those of regions north of the modern-day STF. The increased abundance in the earliest Miocene of Nematosphaeropsis labyrinthus, typical for modern subantarctic zone (frontal) conditions, indicates a cooling and/or closer proximity of the STF to the site . The absence of major shifts in dinocyst assemblages contrasts with other records in the region and suggests that small changes in surface oceanographic conditions occurred during the Oligocene. Despite the relatively southerly (63–55∘ S) location of Site 1168, the rather stable oceanographic conditions reflect the continued influence of the proto-Leeuwin Current along the southern Australian coast as Australia continued to drift northward. The relatively “warm” dinocyst assemblages at ODP Site 1168, compared with the cold assemblages at Antarctic Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1356, testify to the establishment of a pronounced latitudinal temperature gradient in the Oligocene Southern Ocean.
    Print ISSN: 0262-821X
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-4978
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of Micropalaeontological Society.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: China has experienced dramatic changes in emissions since 2010, which accelerated following the implementation of the Clean Air Action program in 2013. These changes have resulted in significant air quality improvements that are reflected in observations from both surface networks and satellite observations. Air pollutants, such as PM2.5, surface ozone, and their precursors, have long enough lifetimes in the troposphere to be easily transported downwind. Emission changes in China will thus not only change the domestic air quality but will also affect the air quality in other regions. In this study, we use a global chemistry transport model (CAM-chem) to simulate the influence of Chinese emission changes from 2010 to 2017 on both domestic and foreign air quality. We then quantify the changes in air-pollution-associated (including both PM2.5 and O3) premature mortality burdens at regional and global scales. Within our simulation period, the population-weighted annual PM2.5 concentration in China peaks in 2011 (94.1 µg m−3) and decreases to 69.8 µg m−3 by 2017. These estimated national PM2.5 concentration changes in China are comparable with previous studies using fine-resolution regional models, though our model tends to overestimate PM2.5 from 2013 to 2017 when evaluated with surface observations. Relative to 2010, emission changes in China increased the global PM2.5-associated premature mortality burdens through 2013, among which a majority of the changes (∼ 93 %) occurred in China. The sharp emission decreases after 2013 generated significant benefits for human health. By 2017, emission changes in China reduced premature deaths associated with PM2.5 by 108 800 (92 800–124 800) deaths per year globally, relative to 2010, among which 92 % were realized in China. In contrast, the population-weighted, annually averaged maximum daily 8 h ozone concentration peaked in 2014 and did not reach 2010 levels by 2017. As such, O3 generated nearly 8500 (6500–9900) more premature deaths per year in 2017 compared to 2010. Downwind regions, such as South Korea, Japan, and the United States, generally experienced O3 improvements following 2013 due to the decreased export of ozone and its precursors. Overall, we conclude that the sharp emission reductions in China over the past decade have generated substantial benefits for air quality that have reduced premature deaths associated with air pollution at a global scale.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The mass of the Greenland ice sheet is declining as mass gain from snow accumulation is exceeded by mass loss from surface meltwater runoff, marine-terminating glacier calving and submarine melting, and basal melting. Here we use the input–output (IO) method to estimate mass change from 1840 through next week. Surface mass balance (SMB) gains and losses come from a semi-empirical SMB model from 1840 through 1985 and three regional climate models (RCMs; HIRHAM/HARMONIE, Modèle Atmosphérique Régional – MAR, and RACMO – Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel) from 1986 through next week. Additional non-SMB losses come from a marine-terminating glacier ice discharge product and a basal mass balance model. From these products we provide an annual estimate of Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through 1985 and a daily estimate at sector and region scale from 1986 through next week. This product updates daily and is the first IO product to include the basal mass balance which is a source of an additional ∼24 Gt yr−1 of mass loss. Our results demonstrate an accelerating ice-sheet-scale mass loss and general agreement (coefficient of determination, r2, ranges from 0.62 to 0.94) among six other products, including gravitational, volume, and other IO mass balance estimates. Results from this study are available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/OHI23Z (Mankoff et al., 2021).
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Frequently occurring mega-droughts under current global climate change have attracted broad social attention. A paleoclimatic perspective is needed to increase our understanding of the causes and effects of droughts. South-western (SW) China has been threatened by severe seasonal droughts. Our current knowledge of millennial-scale dry and wet phases in this region is primarily based on the variability of the Indian summer monsoon. However, water availability over land does not always follow patterns of monsoonal precipitation but also depends on water loss from evaporation and transpiration. Here, we reconstructed precipitation intensity, lake hydrological balance and the soil water stress index (SWSI) for the last 27 000 years. Grain size, geochemical and pollen records from Yilong Lake reveal the long-term relationships and inconsistencies of dry–wet patterns in meteorological, hydrological and soil systems in the central Yunnan region, SW China. Our results show that the long-term trends among precipitation, hydrological balance and soil moisture varied through time. The hydrological balance and soil moisture were primarily controlled by temperature-induced evaporation change during periods of low precipitation such as the Last Glacial Maximum and Younger Dryas. During periods of high precipitation (the early to late Holocene), intensified evaporation from the lake surface offset the effects of increased precipitation on the hydrological balance. However, abundant rainfall and the dense vegetation canopy circumvented a soil moisture deficit that might have resulted from rising temperature. In conclusion, the hydrological balance in the central Yunnan region was more sensitive to temperature change while soil moisture could be further regulated by vegetation changes over millennial timescales. Therefore, under future climate warming, the surface water shortage in the central Yunnan region may become even more serious. Our study suggests that reforestation efforts may provide some relief to soil moisture deficits in this region.
    Print ISSN: 1814-9324
    Electronic ISSN: 1814-9332
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: A new luminescence erosion meter has huge potential for inferring erosion rates on sub-millennial scales for both steady and transient states of erosion, which is not currently possible with any existing techniques capable of measuring erosion. This study applies new rock luminescence techniques to a well-constrained scenario provided by the Beinn Alligin rock avalanche, NW Scotland. Boulders in this deposit are lithologically consistent and have known cosmogenic nuclide ages and independently derived Holocene erosion rates. We find that luminescence-derived exposure ages for the Beinn Alligin rock avalanche were an order of magnitude younger than existing cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages, suggestive of high erosion rates (as supported by field evidence of quartz grain protrusions on the rock surfaces). Erosion rates determined by luminescence were consistent with independently derived rates measured from boulder edge roundness. Inversion modelling indicates a transient state of erosion reflecting the stochastic nature of erosional processes over the last ∼4.5 kyr in the wet, temperate climate of NW Scotland. Erosion was likely modulated by known fluctuations in moisture availability and to a lesser extent temperature, which controlled the extent of chemical weathering of these highly lithified rocks prior to erosion. The use of a multi-elevated temperature, post-infra-red, infra-red stimulated luminescence (MET-pIRIR) protocol (50, 150 and 225 ∘C) was advantageous as it identified samples with complexities that would not have been observed using only the standard infra-red stimulated luminescence (IRSL) signal measured at 50 ∘C, such as that introduced by within-sample variability (e.g. surficial coatings). This study demonstrates that the luminescence erosion meter can infer accurate erosion rates on sub-millennial scales and identify transient states of erosion (i.e. stochastic processes) in agreement with independently derived erosion rates for the same deposit.
    Print ISSN: 2628-3697
    Electronic ISSN: 2628-3719
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The photo-oxidation of myrcene, a monoterpene species emitted by plants, was investigated at atmospheric conditions in the outdoor simulation chamber SAPHIR (Simulation of Atmospheric PHotochemistry In a Large Reaction Chamber). The chemical structure of myrcene consists of one moiety that is a conjugated π system (similar to isoprene) and another moiety that is a triple-substituted olefinic unit (similar to 2-methyl-2-butene). Hydrogen shift reactions of organic peroxy radicals (RO2) formed in the reaction of isoprene with atmospheric OH radicals are known to be of importance for the regeneration of OH. Structure–activity relationships (SARs) suggest that similar hydrogen shift reactions like in isoprene may apply to the isoprenyl part of RO2 radicals formed during the OH oxidation of myrcene. In addition, SAR predicts further isomerization reactions that would be competitive with bimolecular RO2 reactions for chemical conditions that are typical for forested environments with low concentrations of nitric oxide. Assuming that OH peroxy radicals can rapidly interconvert by addition and elimination of O2 like in isoprene, bulk isomerization rate constants of 0.21 and 0.097 s−1 (T=298 K) for the three isomers resulting from the 3′-OH and 1-OH addition, respectively, can be derived from SAR. Measurements of radicals and trace gases in the experiments allowed us to calculate radical production and destruction rates, which are expected to be balanced. The largest discrepancies between production and destruction rates were found for RO2. Additional loss of organic peroxy radicals due to isomerization reactions could explain the observed discrepancies. The uncertainty of the total radical (ROx=OH+HO2+RO2) production rates was high due to the uncertainty in the yield of radicals from myrcene ozonolysis. However, results indicate that radical production can only be balanced if the reaction rate constant of the reaction between hydroperoxy (HO2) and RO2 radicals derived from myrcene is lower (0.9 to 1.6×10-11 cm3 s−1) than predicted by SAR. Another explanation of the discrepancies would be that a significant fraction of products (yield: 0.3 to 0.6) from these reactions include OH and HO2 radicals instead of radical-terminating organic peroxides. Experiments also allowed us to determine the yields of organic oxidation products acetone (yield: 0.45±0.08) and formaldehyde (yield: 0.35±0.08). Acetone and formaldehyde are produced from different oxidation pathways, so that yields of these compounds reflect the branching ratios of the initial OH addition to myrcene. Yields determined in the experiments are consistent with branching ratios expected from SAR. The yield of organic nitrate was determined from the gas-phase budget analysis of reactive oxidized nitrogen in the chamber, giving a value of 0.13±0.03. In addition, the reaction rate constant for myrcene + OH was determined from the measured myrcene concentration, yielding a value of (2.3±0.3)×10-10 cm3 s−1.
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs) in China have achieved great progress, with warning alerts being successfully delivered to the public in some regions. We examined the performance of the EEWS in China's Sichuan Province during the 2019 Changning earthquake. Although its technical effectiveness was tested with the first alert released 10 s after the earthquake, we found that a big gap existed between the EEWS's message and the public's response. We highlight the importance of EEWS alert effectiveness and public participation for long-term resiliency, such as delivering useful alert messages through appropriate communication channels and training people to understand and properly respond.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: McMurdo Sound sea ice can generally be partitioned into two regimes: (1) a stable fast-ice cover, forming south of approximately 77.6∘ S around March–April and then breaking out the following January–February, and (2) a more dynamic region north of 77.6∘ S that the McMurdo Sound and Ross Sea polynyas regularly impact. In 2019, a stable fast-ice cover formed unusually late due to repeated break-out events. We analyse the 2019 sea-ice conditions and relate them to a modified storm index (MSI), a proxy for southerly wind events. We find there is a strong correlation between the timing of break-out events and several unusually large MSI events.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: In this paper, we present a new version of the chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv2 supplemented by an iodine chemistry module. We perform three 20-year ensemble experiments to assess the validity of the modeled iodine and to quantify the effects of iodine on ozone. The iodine distributions obtained with SOCOL-AERv2-I agree well with AMAX-DOAS observations and with CAM-chem model simulations. For the present-day atmosphere, the model suggests that the iodine-induced chemistry leads to a 3 %–4 % reduction in the ozone column, which is greatest at high latitudes. The model indicates the strongest influence of iodine in the lower stratosphere with 30 ppbv less ozone at low latitudes and up to 100 ppbv less at high latitudes. In the troposphere, the account of the iodine chemistry reduces the tropospheric ozone concentration by 5 %–10 % depending on geographical location. In the lower troposphere, 75 % of the modeled ozone reduction originates from inorganic sources of iodine, 25 % from organic sources of iodine. At 50 hPa, the results show that the impacts of iodine from both sources are comparable. Finally, we determine the sensitivity of ozone to iodine by applying a 2-fold increase in iodine emissions, as it might be representative for iodine by the end of this century. This reduces the ozone column globally by an additional 1.5 %–2.5 %. Our results demonstrate the sensitivity of atmospheric ozone to iodine chemistry for present and future conditions, but uncertainties remain high due to the paucity of observational data of iodine species.
    Print ISSN: 1991-959X
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-9603
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The Arabian Sea (AS) hosts one of the most intense oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) in the world. Observations suggest a decline in O2 in the northern AS over the recent decades accompanied by an intensification of the suboxic conditions there. Over the same period, the local sea surface temperature has risen significantly, particularly over the Arabian Gulf (also known as Persian Gulf, hereafter the Gulf), while summer monsoon winds may have intensified. Here, we simulate the evolution of dissolved oxygen in the AS from 1982 through 2010 and explore its controlling factors, with a focus on changing atmospheric conditions. To this end, we use a set of eddy-resolving hindcast simulations forced with winds and heat and freshwater fluxes from an atmospheric reanalysis. We find a significant deoxygenation in the northern AS, with O2 inventories north of 20∘ N dropping by over 6 % per decade between 100 and 1000 m. These changes cause an expansion of the OMZ volume north of 20∘ N at a rate of 0.6 % per decade as well as an increase in the volume of suboxia and the rate of denitrification by 14 and 15 % per decade, respectively. We also show that strong interannual and decadal variability modulate dissolved oxygen in the northern AS, with most of the O2 decline taking place in the 1980s and 1990s. Using a set of sensitivity simulations we demonstrate that deoxygenation in the northern AS is essentially caused by reduced ventilation induced by the recent fast warming of the sea surface, including in the Gulf, with a contribution from concomitant summer monsoon wind intensification. This is because, on the one hand, surface warming enhances vertical stratification and increases Gulf water buoyancy, thus inhibiting vertical mixing and ventilation of the thermocline. On the other hand, summer monsoon wind intensification causes a rise in the thermocline depth in the northern AS that lowers O2 levels in the upper ocean. Our findings confirm that the AS OMZ is strongly sensitive to upper-ocean warming and concurrent changes in the Indian monsoon winds. Finally, our results also demonstrate that changes in the local climatic forcing play a key role in regional dissolved oxygen changes and hence need to be properly represented in global models to reduce uncertainties in future projections of deoxygenation.
    Print ISSN: 1726-4170
    Electronic ISSN: 1726-4189
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Icequakes are the result of processes occurring within the ice mass or between the ice and its environment. Studying icequakes provides a unique view on ice dynamics, specifically on the basal conditions. Changes in conditions due to environmental or climate changes are reflected in icequakes. Counting and characterizing icequakes is thus essential to monitor them. Most of the icequakes recorded by the seismic station at the Belgian Princess Elisabeth Antarctica Station (PE) have small amplitudes corresponding to maximal displacements of a few nanometres. Their detection threshold is highly variable because of the rapid and strong changes in the local seismic noise level. Therefore, we evaluated the influence of katabatic winds on the noise measured by the well-protected PE surface seismometer. Our purpose is to identify whether the lack of icequake detection during some periods could be associated with variations in the processes generating them or simply with a stronger seismic noise linked to stronger wind conditions. We observed that the wind mainly influences seismic noise at frequencies greater than 1 Hz. The seismic noise power exhibits a bilinear correlation with the wind velocity, with two different slopes at a wind velocity lower and greater than 6 m s−1 and with, for example at a period of 0.26 s, a respective variation of 0.4 dB (m −1 s) and 1.4 dB (m −1 s). These results allowed a synthetic frequency and wind-speed-dependent noise model to be presented that explains the behaviour of the wind-induced seismic noise at PE, which shows that seismic noise amplitude increases exponentially with increasing wind speed. This model enables us to study the influence of the wind on the original seismic dataset, which improves the observation of cryoseismic activity near the PE station.
    Print ISSN: 1994-0416
    Electronic ISSN: 1994-0424
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Recent observational and modeling studies show that variations of stratospheric ozone and the resulting interaction between ozone and the stratospheric circulation play an important role in surface weather and climate. However, in many cases, computationally expensive coupled chemistry models have been used to study these effects. Here, we demonstrate how a much simpler idealized general circulation model (GCM) can be used for studying the impact of interactive stratospheric ozone on the circulation. The model, named Simplified Chemistry-Dynamical Model (SCDM V1.0), is constructed from a preexisting idealized GCM, into which a simplified linear ozone scheme and a parameterization for the shortwave radiative effects of ozone are implemented. The distribution and variability of stratospheric ozone simulated by the new model are in good agreement with the MERRA2 reanalysis, even for extreme circulation events such as Arctic stratospheric sudden warmings. The model thus represents a promising new tool for the study of ozone–circulation interaction in the stratosphere and its associated effects on tropospheric weather and climate.
    Print ISSN: 1991-959X
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-9603
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2021-10-21
    Description: The global distribution of cropping intensity (CI) is essential to our understanding of agricultural land use management on Earth. Optical remote sensing has revolutionized our ability to map CI over large areas in a repeated and cost-efficient manner. Previous studies have mainly focused on investigating the spatiotemporal patterns of CI ranging from regions to the entire globe with the use of coarse-resolution data, which are inadequate for characterizing farming practices within heterogeneous landscapes. To fill this knowledge gap, in this study, we utilized multiple satellite data to develop a global, spatially continuous CI map dataset at 30 m resolution (GCI30). Accuracy assessments indicated that GCI30 exhibited high agreement with visually interpreted validation samples and in situ observations from the PhenoCam network. We carried out both statistical and spatial comparisons of GCI30 with six existing global CI estimates. Based on GCI30, we estimated that the global average annual CI during 2016–2018 was 1.05, which is close to the mean (1.09) and median (1.07) CI values of the existing six global CI estimates, although the spatial resolution and temporal coverage vary significantly among products. A spatial comparison with two satellite-based land surface phenology products further suggested that GCI30 was not only capable of capturing the overall pattern of global CI but also provided many spatial details. GCI30 indicated that single cropping was the primary agricultural system on Earth, accounting for 81.57 % (12.28×106 km2) of the world's cropland extent. Multiple-cropping systems, on the other hand, were commonly observed in South America and Asia. We found large variations across countries and agroecological zones, reflecting the joint control of natural and anthropogenic drivers on regulating cropping practices. As the first global-coverage, fine-resolution CI product, GCI30 is expected to fill the data gap for promoting sustainable agriculture by depicting worldwide diversity of agricultural land use intensity. The GCI30 dataset is available on Harvard Dataverse: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/86M4PO (Zhang et al., 2020).
    Print ISSN: 1866-3508
    Electronic ISSN: 1866-3516
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2021-09-22
    Description: Complex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppler lidars deployed during WFIP2 define and characterize summertime wind regimes and their large-scale contexts, and provide insight into NWP model errors by examining differences in the ability of a model [NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR-version1)] to forecast wind-speed profiles for different regimes. Seven regimes were identified based on daily time series of the lidar-measured rotor-layer winds, which then suggested two broad categories. First, in three regimes the primary dynamic forcing was the large-scale pressure gradient. Second, in two regimes the dominant forcing was the diurnal heating-cooling cycle (regional sea-breeze-type dynamics), including the marine intrusion previously described, which generates strong nocturnal winds over the region. The other two included a hybrid regime and a non-conforming regime. For the large-scale pressure-gradient regimes, HRRR had wind-speed biases of ~1 m s−1 and RMSEs of 2-3 m s−1. Errors were much larger for the thermally forced regimes, owing to the premature demise of the strong nocturnal flow in HRRR. Thus, the more dominant the role of surface heating in generating the flow, the larger the errors. Major errors could result from surface heating of the atmosphere, boundary-layer responses to that heating, and associated terrain interactions. Measurement/modeling research programs should be aimed at determining which modeled processes produce the largest errors, so those processes can be improved and errors reduced.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2021-12-01
    Description: The reported decreasing trend of the annual tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in southern China and increasing trend in southeastern China in recent decades are confirmed to be an abrupt shift occurring at the end of the twentieth century, based on a statistical analysis. The opposite trends in the two adjacent regions are often considered to be a result of tropical cyclone landfalls in southern China being deflected northward. However, it is demonstrated in this study that they are phenomenally independent. In fact, the abrupt decrease of TC landfalls in southern China occurs as a result of an abrupt decrease of the westward events in the postpeak season (October–December), which in turn is a consequence of a significant decrease of the TC genesis frequency in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean basin. On the other hand, the abrupt increase of TC landfalls in southeastern China occurs because of an abrupt increase of the northwest events in the peak season (July–September), as the consequence of a statistically westward shift of TC genesis. The relevant variations of TC genesis are shown to be mainly caused by decreased relative vorticity and increased vertical wind shear, which, however, are intrinsically related to the accelerated zonal atmospheric circulation driven by a La Niña–like sea surface warming pattern over the WNP that developed after the end of twentieth century.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2021-08-31
    Description: Tropical convection regimes range from deep organized to shallow convective systems. Mesoscale processes such as cold pools within tropical convective systems can play a significant role in the evolution of convection over land and open ocean. Although cold pools are widely observed, their diurnal properties are not well understood over tropical oceans and land. The oceanic cold pool identification metric applied herein uses the gradient feature (GF) technique and is compared with diurnally-resolved buoy-identified thermal cold pools. This study provides a first-ever diurnal climatology of GF number, area, and attributed TRMM 3B42 precipitation using a space-borne scatterometer (RapidScat). Buoy data over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean have been used to validate and examine the RapidScat-identified diurnal cycle of GF number and precipitation. Buoy-observed cold pool duration, precipitation, temperature, and wind speed is analyzed to understand the in situ cold pool properties over tropical oceans. GF- and buoy-observed cold pool number and precipitation exhibits a similar bimodal diurnal variability with a morning and afternoon maxima, thus establishing confidence in using GF as a proxy to observe cold pools over tropical oceans. The morning peak is attributed to cold pools associated with deep moist convection while the afternoon peak is related to shallower clouds in relatively drier environments resulting in smaller cold pools over global tropical oceans.
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2021-08-19
    Description: In the hydrological sciences, the outstanding challenge of regional modeling requires to capture common and event-specific hydrologic behaviors driven by rainfall spatial variability and catchment physiography during floods. The overall objective of this study is to develop robust understanding and predictive capability of how rainfall spatial variability influences flood peak discharge relative to basin physiography. A machine learning approach is used on a high-resolution dataset of rainfall and flooding events spanning 10 years, with rainfall events and basins of widely varying characteristics selected across the continental United States. It overcomes major limitations in prior studies that were based on limited observations or hydrological model simulations. This study explores first-order dependencies in the relationships between peak discharge, rainfall variability, and basin physiography, and it sheds light on these complex interactions using a multi-dimensional statistical modeling approach. Amongst different machine learning techniques, XGBoost is used to determine the significant physiographical and rainfall characteristics that influence peak discharge through variable importance analysis. A parsimonious model with low bias and variance is created which can be deployed in the future for flash flood forecasting. The results confirm that although the spatial organization of rainfall within a basin has a major influence on basin response, basin physiography is the primary driver of peak discharge. These findings have unprecedented spatial and temporal representativeness in terms of flood characterization across basins. An improved understanding of sub-basin scale rainfall spatial variability will aid in robust flash flood characterization as well as with identifying basins which could most benefit from distributed hydrologic modeling.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2021-08-13
    Description: The extratropical effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), known as the Holton-Tan effect, is manifest as aweaker, warmer winter Arctic polar vortex during the east QBO phase. While previous studies have shown that the extratropical QBO signal is caused by the modified propagation of planetary waves in the stratosphere, the mechanism dominating the onset and seasonal development of the Holton-Tan effects remains unclear. Here, the governing wave-mean flow dynamics of the early winter extratropical QBO signal onset and its reversibility is investigated on a synoptic timescale with a finite-amplitude diagnostic using reanalysis and a chemistry-climate model. The extratropical QBO signal onset in October is found to primarily result from modulated stratospheric life-cycles of wave pulses entering the stratosphere from the troposphere, rather than from a modulation of their tropospheric wave source. A comprehensive analysis of the wave activity budget during fall, when the stratospheric winter polar vortex starts forming and waves start propagating up into the stratosphere, shows significant differences. During the east QBO phase, the deceleration of the mid-high latitude stratospheric zonal mean jet by the upward propagating wave pulses is less reversible, due to stronger dissipation processes, while during the west phase, a more reversible deceleration of the main polar vortex is found owing to the waves being dissipated at lower latitudes, accompanied by a weak but different response of the tropospheric subtropical jet. From this synoptic wave-event viewpoint, the early season onset of the Holton-Tan effect results from the cumulative effect of the QBO dependent wave-induced deceleration during the life cycle of individual upward wave pulses.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2021-10-08
    Description: This paper investigates the value of weather and climate information at different timescales for decision making in the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using non-monetary approaches. Interviews and surveys were conducted with institutions responsible for disaster management at national, regional and district level. A range of values were identified including: 1) making informed decisions for disaster preparedness, response, recovery and restoration related activities; 2) tailoring of directives and actions based on sectoral impacts; 3) identification of hotspot areas for diseases outbreaks and surplus food production. However, while, a number of guidelines, policies, acts and regulations for disaster risk reduction exist it is not clear how well they promote the use of weather and climate information across climate sensitive sectors. Nonetheless, we find that well-structured disaster risk reduction coordination across sectors and institutions from the national to district level exists, although there is a need for further development of integrated Early Warning Systems, and a common platform to evaluate effectiveness and usefulness of weather warnings and advisories. Key challenges to address in increasing the uptake of weather warnings and advisories include language barriers, limited dissemination to rural areas, and limited awareness of forecasts. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend further quantitative evaluation of the skill of the severe weather warnings issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Authority, and an assessment of how decisions and actions are made by recipients of the warnings in the disaster risk reduction sector at different stages in the warning, response and recovery process.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: Tropical cyclones are associated with a variety of significant social hazards, including wind, rain, and storm surge. Despite this, most of the model validation effort has been directed toward track and intensity forecasts. In contrast, few studies have investigated the skill of state-of-the-art, high-resolution ensemble prediction systems in predicting associated TC hazards, which is crucial since TC position and intensity do not always correlate with the TC-related hazards, and can result in impacts far from the actual TC center. Furthermore, dynamic models can provide flow-dependent uncertainty estimates, which in turn can provide more specific guidance to forecasters than statistical uncertainty estimates based on past errors. This study validates probabilistic forecasts of wind speed and precipitation hazards derived from the HWRF ensemble prediction system and compares its skill to forecasts by the stochastically-based operational Monte Carlo Model (NHC), the IFS (ECMWF), and the GEFS (NOAA) in use 2017-2019. Wind and Precipitation forecasts are validated against NHC best track wind radii information and the National Stage IV QPE Product. The HWRF 34 kn wind forecasts have comparable skill to the global models up to 60 h lead time before HWRF skill decreases, possibly due to detrimental impacts of large track errors. In contrast, HWRF has comparable quality to its competitors for higher thresholds of 50 kn and 64 kn throughout 120 h lead time. In terms of precipitation hazards, HWRF performs similar or better than global models, but depicts higher, although not perfect, reliability, especially for events over 5 in120h−1. Post-processing, like Quantile Mapping, improves forecast skill for all models significantly and can alleviate reliability issues of the global models.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2021-12-01
    Description: Future projections of precipitation change over tropical land are often enhanced by vegetation responses to CO2 forcing in Earth system models. Projected decreases in rainfall over the Amazon basin and increases over the Maritime Continent are both stronger when plant physiological changes are modeled than if these changes are neglected, but the reasons for this amplification remain unclear. The responses of vegetation to increasing CO2 levels are complex and uncertain, including possible decreases in stomatal conductance and increases in leaf area index due to CO2 fertilization. Our results from an idealized atmospheric general circulation model show that the amplification of rainfall changes occurs even when we use a simplified vegetation parameterization based solely on CO2-driven decreases in stomatal conductance, indicating that this mechanism plays a key role in complex model projections. Based on simulations with rectangular continents we find that reducing terrestrial evaporation to zero with increasing CO2 notably leads to enhanced rainfall over a narrow island. Strong heating and ascent over the island trigger moisture advection from the surrounding ocean. In contrast, over larger continents rainfall depends on continental evaporation. Simulations with two rectangular continents representing South America and Africa reveal that the stronger decrease in rainfall over the Amazon basin seen in Earth system models is due to a combination of local and remote effects, which are fundamentally connected to South America’s size and its location with respect to Africa. The response of tropical rainfall to changes in evapotranspiration is thus connected to size and configuration of the continents.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: Modeling studies have shown that surface air temperature (SAT) increase in response to an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration is larger over land than over ocean. This so-called land–ocean warming contrast, φ, defined as the land–mean SAT change divided by the ocean-mean SAT change, is a striking feature of global warming. Small heat capacity over land is unlikely the sole cause because the land-ocean warming contrast is found in the equilibrium state of CO2 doubling experiments.Several different mechanisms have been proposed to explain the land–ocean warming contrast, but the comprehensive understanding has not yet been obtained. In Part I of this study, we propose a framework to diagnose φ based on energy budgets at the top of atmosphere and for the atmosphere, which enables the decomposition of contributions from effective radiative forcing (ERF), climate feedback, heat capacity, and atmospheric energy transport anomaly to φ. Using this framework, we analyzed the SAT response to an abrupt CO2 quadrupling using 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models. In the near-equilibrium state (years 121-150), φ is 1.49 ± 0.11, which is primarily induced by the land–ocean difference in ERF and heat capacity. We found that contributions from ERF, feedback, and energy transport anomaly tend to cancel each other, leading to a small inter-model spread of φ compared to the large spread of individual components. In the equilibrium state without heat capacity contribution, ERF and energy transport anomaly are the major contributors to φ, which shows a weak negative correlation with the equilibrium climate sensitivity.
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2021-09-14
    Description: Forecasts of marine cold air outbreaks critically rely on the interplay of multiple parameterisation schemes to represent sub-grid scale processes, including shallow convection, turbulence, and microphysics. Even though such an interplay has been recognised to contribute to forecast uncertainty, a quantification of this interplay is still missing. Here, we investigate the tendencies of temperature and specific humidity contributed by individual parameterisation schemes in the operational weather prediction model AROME-Arctic. From a case study of an extensive marine cold air outbreak over the Nordic Seas, we find that the type of planetary boundary layer assigned by the model algorithm modulates the contribution of individual schemes and affects the interactions between different schemes. In addition, we demonstrate the sensitivity of these interactions to an increase or decrease in the strength of the parameterised shallow convection. The individual tendencies from several parameterisations can thereby compensate each other, sometimes resulting in a small residual. In some instances this residual remains nearly unchanged between the sensitivity experiments, even though some individual tendencies differ by up to an order of magnitude. Using the individual tendency output, we can characterise the subgrid-scale as well as grid-scale responses of the model and trace them back to their underlying causes. We thereby highlight the utility of individual tendency output for understanding process-related differences between model runs with varying physical configurations and for the continued development of numerical weather prediction models.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2021-09-08
    Description: This study examines historical simulations of ENSO in the E3SM-1-0, CESM2, and GFDL-CM4 climate models, provided by three leading U.S. modeling centers as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). These new models have made substantial progress in simulating ENSO’s key features, including: amplitude; timescale; spatial patterns; phase-locking; spring persistence barrier; and recharge oscillator dynamics. However, some important features of ENSO are still a challenge to simulate. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the models’ weaker-than-observed subsurface zonal current anomalies and zonal temperature gradient anomalies serve to weaken the nonlinear zonal advection of subsurface temperatures, leading to insufficient warm/cold asymmetry of ENSO’s sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). In the western equatorial Pacific, the models’ excessive simulated zonal SST gradients amplify their zonal temperature advection, causing their SSTA to extend farther west than observed. The models underestimate both ENSO’s positive dynamic feedbacks (due to insufficient zonal wind stress responses to SSTA) and its thermodynamic damping (due to insufficient convective cloud shading of eastern Pacific SSTA during warm events); compensation between these biases leads to realistic linear growth rates for ENSO, but for somewhat unrealistic reasons. The models also exhibit stronger-than-observed feedbacks onto eastern equatorial Pacific SSTAs from thermocline depth anomalies, which accelerates the transitions between events and shortens the simulated ENSO period relative to observations. Implications for diagnosing and simulating ENSO in climate models are discussed.
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: Based on observational data analyses and idealized modeling experiments, we investigated the distinctive impacts of central Pacific (CP-) El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP-) El Niño on the Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in austral spring (September to November). The tropical heat sources associated with EP-El Niño and the co-occurred positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) excite two branches of Rossby wave trains that propagate southeastward, causing an anomalous anticyclone over the eastern Ross-Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas. Anomalous northerly (southerly) wind west (east) of the anomalous anticyclone favor poleward (offshore) movements of sea ice, resulting in a sea ice loss (growth) in the eastern Ross-Amundsen Seas (the Bellingshausen-Weddell Seas). Meanwhile, the anomalous northerly (southerly) wind also advected warmer and wetter (colder and drier) air into the eastern Ross-Amundsen Seas (the Bellingshausen-Weddell Seas), causing surface warming (cooling) through the enhanced (reduced) surface heat fluxes and thus contributing to the sea ice melting (growth). CP-El Niño, however, forces a Rossby wave train that generates an anomalous anticyclone in the eastern Ross-Amundsen Seas, 20° west of that caused by EP-El Niño. Consequently, a positive SIC anomaly occurs in the Bellingshausen Sea. A dry version of the Princeton atmospheric general circulation model was applied to verify the roles of anomalous heating in the tropics. The result showed that EP-El Niño can remotely induce an anomalous anticyclone and associated dipole temperature pattern in the Antarctic region, whereas CP-El Niño generates a similar anticyclone pattern with its location shift westward by 20° in longitudes.
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: The all-sky assimilation of radiances from microwave instruments is developed in the 4D-EnVar analysis system at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Assimilation of cloud-affected radiances from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSUA) temperature sounding channels 4 and 5 for non-precipitating scenes over the ocean surface is the focus of this study. Cloud-affected radiances are discarded in the ECCC operational data assimilation system due to the limitations of forecast model physics, radiative transfer models, and the strong non-linearity of the observation operator. In addition to using symmetric estimate of innovation standard deviation for quality control, a state-dependent observation error inflation is employed at the analysis stage. The background state clouds are scaled by a factor of 0.5 to compensate for a systematic overestimation by the forecast model, before being used in the observation operator. The changes in the fit of the background state to observations show mixed results. The number of AMSUA channels 4 and 5 assimilated observations in the all-sky experiment is 5-12% higher than in the operational system. The all-sky approach improves temperature analysis when verified against ECMWF operational analysis in the areas where the extra cloud-affected observations were assimilated. Statistically significant reductions in error standard deviation by 1-4% for the analysis and forecasts of temperature, specific humidity, and horizontal wind speed up to maximum 4 days were achieved in the all-sky experiment in the lower troposphere. These improvements result mainly from the use of cloud information for computing the observation-minus-background departures. The operational implementation of all-sky assimilation is planned for Fall 2021.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2021-08-27
    Description: Teleconnections from the Tropics energize variations of the North Pacific climate, but detailed diagnosis of this relationship has proven difficult. Simple univariate methods, such as regression on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, may be inadequate since the key dynamical processes involved -- including ENSO diversity in the Tropics, re-emergence of mixed layer thermal anomalies, and oceanic Rossby wave propagation in the North Pacific -- have a variety of overlapping spatial and temporal scales. Here we use a multivariate Linear Inverse Model to quantify tropical and extra-tropical multi-scale dynamical contributions to North Pacific variability, in both observations and CMIP6 models. In observations, we find that the Tropics are responsible for almost half of the seasonal variance, and almost three quarters of the decadal variance, along the North American coast and within the subtropical front region northwest of Hawaii. SST anomalies that are generated by local dynamics within the Northeast Pacific have much shorter time scales, consistent with transient weather forcing by Aleutian low anomalies. Variability within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region is considerably less impacted by the Tropics, on all time scales. Consequently, without tropical forcing the dominant pattern of North Pacific variability would be a KOE pattern, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In contrast to observations, most CMIP6 historical simulations produce North Pacific variability that maximizes in the KOE region, with amplitude significantly higher than observed. Correspondingly, the simulated North Pacific in all CMIP6 models is shown to be relatively insensitive to the Tropics, with a dominant spatial pattern generally resembling the KOE pattern, not the PDO.
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2021-09-14
    Description: Despite an increased understanding of environments favorable for tornadic supercells, it is still sometimes unknown why one favorable environment produces many long-tracked tornadic supercells and another seemingly equally-favorable environment produces only short-lived supercells. One relatively unexplored environmental parameter that may differ between such environments is the degree of backing or veering of the midlevel shear vector, especially considering that such variations may not be captured by traditional supercell or tornado forecast parameters. We investigate the impact of the 3-6 km shear vector orientation on simulated supercell evolution by systematically varying it across a suite of idealized simulations. We found that the orientation of the 3-6 km shear vector dictates where precipitation loading is maximized in the storms, and thus alters the storm-relative location of downdrafts and outflow surges. When the shear vector is backed, outflow surges generally occur northwest of an updraft, produce greater convergence beneath the updraft, and do not disrupt inflow, meaning that the storm is more likely to persist and produce more tornado-like vortices (TLVs). When the shear vector is veered, outflow surges generally occur north of an updraft, produce less convergence beneath the updraft, and sometimes undercut it with outflow, causing it to tilt at low levels, sometimes leading to storm dissipation. These storms are shorter lived and thus also produce fewer TLVs. Our simulations indicate that the relative orientation of the 3-6 km shear vector may impact supercell longevity and hence the time period over which tornadoes may form.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2021-09-15
    Description: This study explores the possibilities of employing machine learning algorithms to predict foehn occurrence in Switzerland at a north-Alpine (Altdorf) and south-Alpine (Lugano) station from its synoptic fingerprint in reanalysis data and climate simulations. This allows for an investigation on a potential future shift in monthly foehn frequencies. First, inputs from various atmospheric fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis-Interim (ERAI) were used to train an XGBoost model. Here, similar predictive performance to previous work was achieved, showing that foehn can accurately be diagnosed from the coarse synoptic situation. In the next step, the algorithm was generalized to predict foehn based on Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble simulations of a present-day and warming future climate. The best generalization between ERAI and CESM was obtained by including the present-day data in the training procedure and simultaneously optimizing two objective functions, namely the negative log loss and squared mean loss, on both datasets, respectively. It is demonstrated that the same synoptic fingerprint can be identified in CESM climate simulation data. Finally, predictions for present-day and future simulations were verified and compared for statistical significance. Our model is shown to produce valid output for most months, revealing that south foehn in Altdorf is expected to become more common during spring, while north foehn in Lugano is expected to become more common during summer.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: This study investigates the stratosphere-troposphere coupling associated with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern in boreal winter. The results indicate that the SCA impacts stratospheric circulation but that its positive and negative phases have different effects. The positive phase of the SCA (SCA+) pattern is restricted to the troposphere, but the negative phase (SCA−) extends to the upper stratosphere. The asymmetry between phases is also visible in the lead-lag evolution of the stratosphere and troposphere. Prominent stratospheric anomalies are found to be intensified following SCA+ events, but prior to SCA− events. Further analysis reveals that the responses are associated with upward propagation of planetary waves, especially wavenumber 1 which is asymmetric between SCA phases. The wave amplitudes in the stratosphere, originating from the troposphere, are enhanced after the SCA+ events and before the SCA− events. Furthermore, the anomalous planetary wave activity can be understood through its interference with climatological stationary waves. Constructive wave interference is accompanied by clear upward propagation in the SCA+ events, while destructive interference suppresses stratospheric waves in the SCA− events. Our results also reveal that the SCA+ events are more likely to be followed by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, because of the deceleration of stratospheric westerlies following the SCA+ events.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: The Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) is a major water mass in the South Indian and Pacific oceans and plays an important role in the ocean uptake and anthropogenic heat and carbon. The characteristics, formation, and long-term evolution of the SAMW are investigated in the “historical” and “SSP245” scenario simulations of the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Defined by the low potential vorticity, the simulated SAMW is consistently thinner, shallower, lighter, and warmer than in observations, due to biases in the winter mixed layer properties and spatial distribution. The biases are especially large in the South Pacific Ocean. The winter mixed layer bias can be attributed to unrealistic heat loss and stratification in the models. Nevertheless, the SAMW is presented better in the CMIP6 than CMIP5, regarding its volume, location, and physical characteristics. In warmer climate, the simulated SAMW in the South Indian Ocean consistently becomes lighter in density, with a reduced volume and a southward shift in the subduction region. The reduced heat loss, instead of the increased Ekman pumping induced by the poleward intensified westerly wind, dominates in the SAMW change. The winter mixed layer shoals in the northern outcrop region and the SAMW subduction shifts southward where the mixed layer remains deep. The projected reduction of the SAMW volume is likely to impact the heat and freshwater redistribution in the Southern Ocean.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: The reproducibility of precipitation in the early stages of forecasts, often called a spin-down or spin-up problem, has been a significant issue in numerical weather prediction. This problem is caused by moisture imbalance in the analysis data, and in the case of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA’s) mesoscale data assimilation system JNoVA, we found that the imbalance stems from the existence of unrealistic supersaturated states in the minimal solution of the cost function in JNoVA. Based on the theory of constrained optimization problems, we implemented an exterior penalty function method for the mixing ratio within JNoVA to suppress unrealistic supersaturated states. The advantage of this method is the simplicity of its theory and implementation. The results of twin data assimilation cycle experiments conducted for the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 over Japan show that—with the new method—unrealistic supersaturated states are reduced successfully, negative temperature bias to the observations is alleviated, and a sharper distribution of the mixing ratio is obtained. These changes help to initiate the development of convection at the proper location and improve the fractions skill score (FSS) of precipitation in the early stages of the forecast. From these results, we conclude that the initial shock caused by moisture imbalance is mitigated by implementing the penalty function method, and the new moisture balance has a positive impact on the reproducibility of precipitation in the early stages of forecasts.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: As a key to modulate the negative feedback to tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, the TC-induced inner-core sea surface cooling (SSCIC) is poorly understood. Using a linear two-layer theory and OGCM experiments, this study illustrates that the pattern of the inner-core mixing can be well interpreted by the wind-driven currents in the mixed layer (ML). This interpretation is based on: 1) the mixing is triggered by the ML bulk shear instability; 2) the lag of upwelling makes the inner-core bulk shear equivalent to the inner-core wind-driven currents. Overall, the patterns of the inner-core bulk shear and mixing resemble the crescent body of a sickle. As an accumulative result of mixing, the SSCIC is clearly weaker than the maximum cold wake because of the weaker mixing ahead of the inner core and nearly zero mixing in a part of the inner core. The SSCIC induced by a rectilinear-track TC is mainly dominated by the inner-core mixing. Only for a slow-moving case, upwelling and horizontal advection can make minor contributions to the SSCIC by incorporating them with mixing. The SSCIC strength is inversely proportional to the moving speed, suggesting the mixing time rather than the mixing strength dominates the SSCIC. Despite inability in treating the mixing strength, this study elucidates the fundamental dynamical mechanisms of SSCIC, especially emphasizes the different roles of mixing, upwelling and horizontal advection for fast- and slow-moving TCs, and thus provides a good start point to understand SSCIC.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: Diurnal variation in surface latent heat flux (LHF) and the effects of diurnal variations in LHF-related variables on the climatological LHF are examined using observations from the Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array. The estimated amplitude of the climatological diurnal LHF over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic cold tongues is remarkable, with maximum values exceeding 20.0 W m−2. Diurnal variability of sea surface skin temperature (SSTskin) is the primary contributor to the diurnal LHF amplitude. Because the diurnal SSTskin amplitude has an inverse relationship with surface wind speed over the tropical oceans, an inverse spatial pattern between the diurnal LHF amplitude and surface wind speed results. Resolving diurnal variations in the SSTskin and wind improves the estimate of the climatological LHF by properly capturing the daytime SSTskin and daily mean wind speed, respectively. The diurnal SSTskin-associated contribution is large over the warm pool and equatorial cold tongues where low wind speeds tend to cause strong diurnal SSTskin warming, while the magnitude associated with the diurnal winds is large over the highly dynamic environment of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone. The total diurnal contribution is about 9.0 W m−2 on average over the buoy sites. There appears to be a power function (linear) relationship between the diurnal SSTskin-associated (wind-associated) contribution and surface mean wind speed (wind speed enhancement from diurnal variability). The total contribution from diurnal variability can be estimated accurately from high-frequency surface wind measurements using these relationships.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2021-09-07
    Description: Accurate representation of stratospheric trace gas transport is important for ozone modeling and climate projection. Intermodel spread can arise from differences in the representation of transport by the diabatic (overturning) circulation vs. comparatively faster adiabatic mixing by breaking waves, or through numerical errors, primarily diffusion. This study investigates the impact of these processes on transport using an idealised tracer, the age-of-air. Transport is assessed in two state-of-the-art dynamical cores based on fundamentally different numerical formulations: finite volume and spectral element. Integrating the models in free-running and nudged tropical wind configurations reveals the crucial impact of tropical dynamics on stratospheric transport. Using age-budget theory, vertical and horizontal gradients of age allow comparison of the roles of the diabatic circulation, adiabatic mixing, and the numerical diffusive flux. Their respective contribution is quantified by connecting the full 3-d model to the tropical leaky pipe framework of Neu and Plumb (1999). Transport by the two cores varies significantly in the free-running integrations, with the age in the middle stratosphere differing by about 2 years primarily due to differences in adiabatic mixing. When winds in the tropics are constrained, the difference in age drops to about 0.5 years; in this configuration, more than half the difference is due to the representation of the diabatic circulation. Numerical diffusion is very sensitive to the resolution of the core, but does not play a significant role in differences between the cores when they are run at comparable resolution. It is concluded that fundamental differences rooted in dynamical core formulation can account for a substantial fraction of transport bias between climate models.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2021-08-31
    Description: In this study, we investigate the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate change by using the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) model and a statistical-deterministic method to downscale TCs using environmental conditions obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenario for the North Atlantic basin. The downscaled TCs for the historical climate (1986-2005) are compared with those in the mid- (2016-35) and late-twenty-first century (2081-2100). The downscaled TCs are also compared with TCs explicitly simulated in HiFLOR. We show that while significantly more storms are detected in HiFLOR towards the end of the twenty-first century, the statistical-deterministic model projects a moderate increase in TC frequency, and PepC projects almost no increase in TC frequency. The changes in storm frequency in all three datasets are not significant in the mid-twenty-first century. All three project that storms will become more intense and the fraction of major hurricanes and Category 5 storms will significantly increase in the future climates. However, HiFLOR projects the largest increase in intensity while PepC projects the least. The results indicate that HiFLOR’s TC projection is more sensitive to climate change effects and statistical models are less sensitive. Nevertheless, in all three datasets, storm intensification and frequency increase lead to relatively small changes in TC threat as measured by the return level of landfall intensity.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2021-08-27
    Description: A model diagnosis for the energy flux of off-equatorial Rossby waves in the atmosphere has previously been done using quasi-geostrophic equations and is singular at the equator. The energy flux of equatorial waves has been separately investigated in previous studies using a space-time spectral analysis or a ray theory. A recent analytical study has derived an exact universal expression for the energy flux which can indicate the direction of the group velocity for linear shallow water waves at all latitudes. This analytical result is extended in the present study to a height-dependent framework for three-dimensional waves in the atmosphere. This is achieved by investigating the classical analytical solution of both equatorial and off-equatorial waves in a Boussinesq fluid. For the horizontal component of the energy flux, the same expression has been obtained between equatorial waves and off-equatorial waves in the height-dependent framework, which is linked to a scalar quantity inverted from the isentropic perturbation of Ertel’s potential vorticity. The expression of the vertical component of the energy flux requires computation of another scalar quantity that may be obtained from the meridional integral of geopotential anomaly in a wavenumber-frequency space. The exact version of the universal expression is explored and illustrated for three-dimensional waves induced by an idealized Madden-Julian Oscillation forcing in a basic model experiment. The zonal and vertical fluxes manifest the energy transfer of both equatorial Kelvin waves and off-equatorial Rossby waves with a smooth transition at around 10°S and around 10°N. The meridional flux of wave energy represents connection between off-equatorial divergence regions and equatorial convergence regions.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage worldwide. Despite their large socio-economic impacts, research into heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs has received limited attention to date, and still represents a major challenge. Our capability to adapt to future changesin heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs is inextricably linked to and informed by ourunderstanding of the sensitivity of TC rainfall to likely future forcing mechanisms. Here we use a set of idealized high-resolution atmospheric model experiments produced as part of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group activity to examine TC response to idealized global-scale perturbations: the doubling of CO2, uniform 2K increases in global sea surface temperature(SST), and their combined impact. As a preliminary but key step, daily rainfall patterns ofcomposite TCs within climate model outputs are first compared and contrasted to the observational records. To assess similarities and differences across different regions in response to the warming scenarios, analyses are performed at the global and hemispheric scales and in six global TC ocean basins. The results indicate a reduction in TC daily precipitation rates in the doubling CO2 scenario (on the order of 5% globally), and an increase in TC rainfall rates associated with a uniform increase of 2K in SST (both alone and in combination with CO2 doubling; on the order of 10-20% globally).
    Description: Published
    Description: 4622–4641
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; precipitation ; rainfall ; extreme events ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.
    Description: Published
    Description: 997–1017
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; hurricanes ; climate change ; CLIVAR ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 94
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    Unknown
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 44(8), pp. 2093-2106, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Publication Date: 2019-07-16
    Description: The recently proposed Internal Wave Dissipation, Energy and Mixing (IDEMIX) model, describing the propagation and dissipation of internal gravity waves in the ocean, is extended. Compartments describing the energy contained in the internal tides and the near-inertial waves at low, vertical wavenumber are added to a compartment of the wave continuum at higher wavenumbers. Conservation equations for each compartment are derived based on integrated versions of the radiative transfer equation of weakly interacting waves. The compartments interact with each other by the scattering of tidal energy to the wave continuum by triad wave– wave interactions, which are strongly enhanced equatorward of 288 due to parametric subharmonic instability of the tide and by scattering to the continuum of both tidal and near-inertial wave energy over rough topography and at continental margins. Global numerical simulations of the resulting model using observed stratification, forcing functions, and bottom topography yield good agreement with available observations.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2014-10-14
    Description: The composition and abundance of algal pigments provide information on characteristics of a phytoplankton community in respect to its photoacclimation, overall biomass, and taxonomic composition. Particularly, these pigments play a major role in photoprotection and in the light-driven part of photosynthesis. Most phytoplankton pigments can be measured by High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) techniques to filtered water samples. This method, like others when water samples have to be analysed in the laboratory, is time consuming and therefore only a limited number of data points can be obtained. In order to receive information on phytoplankton pigment composition with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, we have developed a method to assess pigment concentrations from continuous optical measurements. The method applies an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to remote sensing reflectance data derived from ship-based hyper-spectral underwater radiometric and from multispectral satellite data (using the MERIS Polymer product developed by Steinmetz et al., 2011) measured in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic. Subsequently we developed statistically linear models with measured (collocated) pigment concentrations as the response variable and EOF loadings as predictor variables. The model results, show that surface concentrations of a suite of pigments and pigment groups can be well predicted from the ship-based reflectance measurements, even when only a multi-spectral resolution is chosen (i.e. eight bands similar to those used by MERIS). Based on the MERIS reflectance data, concentrations of total and monovinyl chlorophyll a and the groups of photoprotective and photosynthetic carotenoids can be predicted with high quality. The fitted statistical model constructed on the satellite reflectance data as input was applied to one month of MERIS Polymer data to predict the concentration of those pigment groups for the whole Eastern Tropical Atlantic area. Bootstrapping explorations of cross-validation error indicate that the method can produce reliable predictions with relatively small data sets (e.g., 〈 50 collocated values of reflectance and pigment concentration). The method allows for the derivation of time series from continuous reflectance data of various pigment groups at various regions, which can be used to study variability and change of phytoplankton composition and photo-physiology.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , notRev
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  • 96
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 27(10), pp. 3784-3801, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2014-05-15
    Description: Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration over recent decades. However, observations of decadal trends in Antarctic ice thickness, and hence ice volume, do not currently exist. In this study a model of the Southern Ocean and its sea ice, forced by atmospheric reanalyses, is used to assess 1992–2010 trends in ice thickness and volume. The model successfully reproduces observations of mean ice concentration, thickness, and drift, and decadal trends in ice concentration and drift, imparting some confidence in the hindcasted trends in ice thickness. The model suggests that overall Antarctic sea ice volume has increased by approximately 30 km3 yr−1 (0.4% yr−1) as an equal result of areal expansion (20 × 103 km2 yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1) and thickening (1.5 mm yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1). This ice volume increase is an order of magnitude smaller than the Arctic decrease, and about half the size of the increased freshwater supply from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Similarly to the observed ice concentration trends, the small overall increase in modeled ice volume is actually the residual of much larger opposing regional trends. Thickness changes near the ice edge follow observed concentration changes, with increasing concentration corresponding to increased thickness. Ice thickness increases are also found in the inner pack in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas, where the model suggests that observed ice-drift trends directed toward the coast have caused dynamical thickening in autumn and winter. Modeled changes are predominantly dynamic in origin in the Pacific sector and thermodynamic elsewhere.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the intensity of rainfall events associated 28with tropical cyclones (TCs) under idealized forcing scenarios, including a uniformly warmer climate, with a special focus on landfalling storms. A new set of experiments designed within the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group allows disentangling the relative role of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide from that played by sea surface temperature (SST) in changing theamount of precipitation associated with TCs in a warmer world. Compared to the present day simulation, we found an increase in TC precipitation under the scenarios involving SST increases. On the other hand, in a CO2 doubling-only scenario, the changes in TC rainfall are small and we found that, on average, TC rainfall tends to decrease compared to the present day climate. The results of this study highlight the contribution of landfalling TCs to the projected increase in theprecipitation changes affecting the tropical coastal regions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 4642–4654
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; precipitation ; extreme events ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 98
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We study the quasi-geostrophic merging dynamics of axisymmetric baroclinic vortices to understand how baroclinicity affects merging rates and the development of the nonlinear cascade of enstrophy. The initial vortices are taken to simulate closely the horizontal' and vertical structure of Gulf Stream rings. A quasigeostrophic model is set with a horizontal resolution of 9 km and 6 vertical levels to resolve the mean stratification of the Gulf Stream region. The results show that the baroclinic merging is slower than the purely barotropic process, The merging is shown to occur in two phases: the tirst, which produces clove-shaped vortices and diffusive mixing of vorticity contours; and the second, which consists of the sliding of the remaining vorticity cores with a second diffusive mixing of the intemal vorticity field. Comparison among Nof, Cushman-Roisin, Polvani et al, and Dewar and Killworth merging events indicates a substantial agreement in the kinematics of the DYOCRSS. Parameter sensitivity experiments show that the decrease of the baroclinicity parameter of the system, Γ^2, [defined as Γ^2 = (D^2 fo^2)/ (No^2 H^2)], increases the speed of merging while its increase slows down the merging. However, the halting elfect of baroclinicity (large Γ^2 or small Rossby radii of deformation) reaches a saturation level where the merging becomes insensitive to larger F2 values. Furthermore, we show that a regime of small Γ^2 exists at which the merged baroclinic vortex is unstable (metastable) and breaks again into two new vortices, Thus, in the baroelinic case the range of Γ^2 detemines the stability of the merged vortex. We analyze these results by local energy and vorticity balances, showing that the horizontal divergence of pressure work term [∇ *(pv)] and the relative-vorticity advection term (v * ∇ (∇ ^2 φ) trigger the merging during the first phase. Due to this horizontal redistribution process, a net kinetic to gravitational energy conversion occurs via buoyancy work in the region external to the cores of the vortices. The second phase of merging is dominated by a direct baroclinic conversion of available gravitational energy into kinetic energy, which in tum triggers a horizontal energy redistribution producing the final fusion of the vortex centers. This energy and vorticity analysis supports the hypothesis that merging is an internal mixing process triggered by a horizontal redistribution of kinetic energy.
    Description: The work has been financed by a grant from the Progetto Finalizzato "Calcolo Parallelo"
    Description: Published
    Description: 1618/1637
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Ocean modeling ; Vortex dynamics ; Baroclinicity ; Eddies ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Future tropical cyclone activity is a topic of great scientific and societal interest. In the absence of a climate theory of tropical cyclogenesis, general circulation models are the primary tool available for investigating the issue. However, the identification of tropical cyclones in model data at moderate resolution is complex, and numerous schemes have been developed for their detection. We here examine the influence of different tracking schemes on detected tropical cyclone activity and responses in the Hurricane Working Group experiments. These are idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments aimed at determining and distinguishing the effects of increased sea-surface temperature and other increased CO2 effects on tropical cyclone activity. We apply two tracking schemes to these data and also analyze the tracks provided by each modelling group. Our results indicate moderate agreement between the different tracking methods, with some models and experiments showing better agreement across schemes than others. When comparing responses between experiments, we find that much of the disagreement between schemes is due to differences in duration, wind speed, and formation-latitude thresholds. After homogenisation in these thresholds, agreement between different tracking methods is improved. However, much disagreement remains, accountable for by more fundamental differences between the tracking schemes. Our results indicate that sensitivity testing and selection of objective thresholds are the key factors in obtaining meaningful, reproducible results when tracking tropical cyclones in climate model data at these resolutions, but that more fundamental differences between tracking methods can also have a significant impact on the responses in activity detected.
    Description: Published
    Description: 9197–9213
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; tracking schemes ; climate change ; hurricanes ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2017-10-17
    Description: Mesoscale transport of energy and matter between the surface and the atmosphere often occurs in form of non-propagating organized structures or thermally-induced circulations. Spatially resolving measurements are required to capture such fluxes and, thus far, airborne measurements are the only means to accomplish this. In contrast, tower-based eddy-covariance measurements are conducted at one point and therefore inherently cannot capture the total atmospheric exchange, which is recognized as a major contributor to energy balance closure problems. As long as there are mean vertical thermal and humidity gradients in the Atmospheric Boundary-Layer, with higher potential temperatures and specific humidities in the surface layer as compared with the outer-layer, such organized structures will lead to a systematic underestimation of turbulent energy fluxes from eddy-towers. Firstly, we address the question of how deep such meso-γ scale motions penetrate into the surface layer. We present indications from Doppler-LiDAR, airborne and tower-based measurements, which show that mesoscale motion can indeed be found quite close to the surface, but the mesoscale effect vanishes when measurements are actually conducted within the roughness sublayer and when shear stress is sufficiently large to break up mesoscale contributions into smaller eddies. This will be illustrated by observations from Germany and Israel. Secondly, we investigate whether the common practice of adjusting the measured eddy tower fluxes for energy balance closure by conserving the Bowen ratio is supported by experimental evidence. Mesoscale and small-scale turbulent fluxes from four different flight campaigns are presented, which were carried out on board of the Canadian Twin Otter (National Research Council of Canada) and the German Polar 5 (Alfred-Wegener Institute) research aircraft over different landscapes in Canada and Alaska.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
    Format: application/pdf
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