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  • 1
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 2
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 3-16 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Annual maximum ; partial duration series ; T-year estimate ; marshall-Olkin bivariate distribution ; Morgenstern bivariate distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract As a basis for development of the annual maximum distribution the so-called partial duration series with Poissonian occurrence times and exponentially distributed peak exceedance values has been selected. The model is generalized by allowing for a Markov dependence between succeeding peak values. Correlation values from p=0 to p=1 can be accounted for by introducing the Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution, which is presented in detail. The developed distribution function for the annual maximum is throughly analysed and a variety of distribution forms depending on the value of the correlation coefficient and the intensity in the Poisson process is hereby recognized. To a certain extent this might be considered as parallel to the scattering of hydrological regions with different generating mechanisms for the annual maxima.
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  • 3
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 37-52 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Cyclonic precipitation ; mathematical modeling ; simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A stochastic description is developed for extratropical cyclonic precipitation fields at synoptic and meso scales as they are typically observed by radars over the Earth. This description attempts to account I) for the synoptic scale behavior of a cyclonic storm (its birth, its synoptic scale motion trajectory, and its dissipation) II) for the synoptic-scale organizational structure of subsynoptic precipitation areas (rainbands, precipitation cores and raincells) within a cyclonic storm; and III) for the behavior of subsynoptic precipitation areas, in terms of their births, their spatial configuration evolutions, their motions, and their deaths (dissipation). The precipitation cores and the raincells are taken as the building blocks of the subsynoptic precipitation, areas within a cyclonic rainfield.
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  • 4
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 81-100 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic differential equations ; Itô calculus ; Stratovovich integrals ; Jump integrals
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Fundamentals of the theory of stochastic calculus and stochastic differential equations (SDE's) which are finding increasing application in water resources engineering are reviewed. The basics of probability theory, mean square calculus and the Wiener, white Gaussian and compound Poisson processes are given in preparation for a discussion of the general Itô SDE with drift, diffusion and jump discontinuity terms driven by Gaussian white noise and compound Poissionian impulses. Also discussed are stochastic integration and the derivation of moment equations via the Itô differential rule. The lierature of SDE's is reviewed with an emphasis on the more accessible sources.
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  • 5
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 53-66 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hurst range ; conditioned exchangeable, variables
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A new theoretical interpretation is proposed for Hurst's empirical law which is applicable to discrete-valued inflows and is consistent with the existing interpretation for continuous-valued inflows. This is applied to independent net inflows {X r} having values +1 and −1 with unequal probabilities. With the aid of a new result on the exchangeability of symmetrically conditioned exchangeable variables, values of the resulting range are obtained and tabulated. It is found that the effect of skewness is very slight for skewness values between (about) 3 and −3, and that Hurst's own approximation, the “conditioned range”, is remarkably accurate.
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  • 6
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 67-80 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: pattern analysis ; mixed-mode data ; event-covering ; discretization ; hydrometric data
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a pattern analysis technique that has been successfully applied to a set of hydrometric network data collected in British Columbia, Canada. This technique can extract information from a set of observed heterogeneous multivariate data. The data are represented as n-tuples of mixed discrete and continuous values. The technique is capable of screening out statistically irrelevant information. It is also able to detect inherent subgroups in the data through adopting an event-covering approach. The subgroup characteristics represent important empirical understanding even though there may be considerable probabilistic variation within each individual subgroup.
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  • 7
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 17-36 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic hydrology ; multivariate analysis ; information extraction ; information transfer ; structure of time series ; time series analysis ; spatial characteristics ; simulation of processes
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A stochastic approach to the analysis of hydrologic processes is defined along with a discussion of causes of tendency, periodicity and stochasticity in hydrologic series. Sources of temporal non-stationarity are described along with objectives and methods of analysis of processes and, in general, of information extraction from data. Transferred information as measured by correlation coefficients is compared with the transferable information as measured by entropy coefficients. Various multivariate approaches to hydrologic stochastic modeling are classified in light of complexities of spatial/temporal hydrologic processes. Alternatives of time series structural decomposition and modeling are compared. A special approach to modeling of space properties further contributes to approximate simulations of spatial/temporal processes over large areas. Several aspects of stochastic models in hydrology are concisely reviewed.
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  • 8
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 101-116 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Soil moisture ; stochastic processes ; stochastic differential equations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The dynamics of water within the unsaturated root zone of the soil are represented by a pair of stochastic differential equations (SDE's), one representing the so-called “surplus” state of the moisture and the other the “deficit” condition. The inputs to the model are the climatically controlled random infiltration events and evapotranspiration which are modeled as a compound Poisson process and a Wiener (Brownian motion) process, respectively. The solutions to these SDE's are not in “close-form” but sample functions are obtained by numerical integration. The moment properties of the soil moisture evolution process have also been derived analytically including the mean, variance, covariance and autocorrelation functions. To illustrate the model, climatic parameters representing the “surplus” and “deficit” cases and properties of clay loam soil have been used to numerically derived the corresponding sample functions. With proper selection of all the parameters, physically realistic sample trajectories can be obtained for the model.
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  • 9
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 127-134 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Upland erosion ; annual erosion losses
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Point rainfall triggers the complex processes of overland flow and surface erosion. The probability density functions of rainfall duration and intensity are coupled with a physically based dynamic formulation of rainfall-runoff-sediment transport relationships for upland areas. When considering a single storm, rainfall depth alone is a poor predictor of sediment transport because of the dispersion introduced by the effect of rainfall intensity. On a long terms basis, however, the total amount of rainfall can be used to predict total erosion losses.
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  • 10
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 117-126 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: equi-risk line ; detention pond ; urban runoff ; frequency analysis ; flood risk
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The expression of equi-risk line derived by the authors represents the relationship between discharge capacityy 0 u and storage capacityz 0 u to keep flood frequency under a certain risk level represented by the return periodT, i.e.,z 0/z 0 u ={(y 0 u −y 0 u )/y 0 u } S , wherey 0 u andz 0 u areT-year probability peak discharge and total volume of a hydrograph. The shape parametersS is evaluated in this paper for various release rules of the storage facilities and correlations of durations and peaks of hydrographs. The expression forS is: $$S = S_\infty + (S_0 - S_\infty )\exp ( - \sqrt p )$$ , whereS 0 andS ∞ are the values ofS forp=0 and ∞, andp is the exponent of a general storage-release relation,q=az' p, wherea is the storage constant, andz' andq are the volume of stored water and the corresponding release. The values ofS 0 andS ∞ are expressed in terms of the correlation coefficient ρ of durations and peaks of inflow hydrographs.
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  • 11
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 135-140 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Upland erosion ; annual soil losses
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Annual erosion losses from 135 experimental plots under a variety of soil types, vegetation cover densities and conservation practices in Iraq have been measured over a period of four years. The first three years of this data set demonstrate that annual erosion losses can be predicted from annual rainfall depths. The results obtained from regression analysis were then validated with the fourth year of soil erosion data. These results corroborate the theoretical findings of the companion paper in that long term erosion losses can be predicted from the total amount of rainfall.
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  • 12
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 141-154 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Contemporaneous ARMA models ; maximum likelihood estimation ; multivariate modelling ; stochastic hydrology ; time series analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In order to allow contemporaneous autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models to be properly applied to hydrological time series, important statistical properties of the CARMA family of models are developed. For calibrating the model parameters, efficient joint estimation procedures are investigated and compared to a set of uivariate estimation procedures. It is shown that joint estimation procedures improve the efficiency of the autoregressive and moving average parameter estimates, but no improvements are expected on the estimation of the mean vector and the variance covariance matrix of the model. The effects of the different estimation procedures on the asymptotic prediction error are also considered. Finally, hydrological applications demonstrate the usefulness of the CARMA models in the field of water resources.
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  • 13
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 155-160 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Gamma Markov ; estimation ; maximum likelihood estimates
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The linearly regressive Gamma Markov sequence is being increasingly used as a model for geophysical phenomena, one of the reasons being that it is possible to determine the distribution of (weighted or otherwise) cumulative sums of such a sequence. In this paper we show briefly how to simulate such a sequence and its seasonal extension; we also show how to estimate its parameters. It is shown that the estimates obtained by the method of moments do not have a high efficiency, whereas those obtained by a modified maximum likelihood method have an efficiency close to unity.
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  • 14
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 161-168 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Inverse problem ; groundwater management ; groundwater response function ; stochastic control ; consistent parameter estimation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The response of groundwater basins to natural and anthropogenic inputs depends on many interrelated factors such as the values of groundwater flow and mass transport parameters. This work presents a theoretical analysis of the impact of parameter uncertainty on groundwater management decisions. It is shown that under classical, Bayesian, and deterministic assumptions about the parameter structure, the resulting management decisions could be very different. This underscores the importance of adopting the proper parameter structure and the need for using consistent methods to solve the inverse problem.
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  • 15
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 185-198 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Pattern matching ; tracking ; rainfall ; mesoscale ; radar
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a new feature-based matching algorithm for tracking mesoscale precipitation phenomena in radar image sequences. Distinct rainfall areas are identified in each image and characterized by a feature vector of shape descriptors, which provide a mathematical representation of the spatial characteristics of each identified area. Rainfall areas observed in consecutive images are matched by comparing the relative values of the features. Two match scoring algorithms are developed to generate the initial estimates of correct matches, which are then updated by likelihood measures based on relative location. The method is applied to mesoscale rainfall areas observed in sequences of radar-derived images of rainfall activity over Southwestern Ontario during the summers of 1980 and 1981.
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  • 16
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 199-208 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Extreme value distribution ; two-component distribution ; maximum entropy principle ; parameter estimation ; regional estimation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The two component extreme value (TCEV) distribution has recently been shown to account for most of the characteristics of the real flood experience. A new method of parameter estimation for this distribution is derived using the principle of maximum entropy (POME). This method of parameter estimation is suitable for application in both the site-specific and regional cases and appears simpler than the maximum likelihood estimation method. Statistical properties of the regionalized estimation were evaluated using a Monte Carlo approach and compared with those of the maximum likelihood regional estimators.
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  • 17
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 169-184 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic control and programming ; real-time hydrologic forecasting ; reservoir theory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A new approximate method of solution for stochastic optimal control problems with many state and control variables is introduced. The method is based on the expansion of the optimal control into the deterministic feedback control plus a caution term. The analytic, small-perturbation calculation of the caution term is at the heart of the new method. The developed approximation depends only on the first two statistical moments of the random inputs and up to the third derivatives of the cost functions. Its computational requirements do not exhibit the exponential growth exhibited by discrete stochastic DP and can be used as a suboptimal solution to problems for which application of stochastic DP is not feasible. The method is accurate when the cost-to-go functions are approximately cubic in a neighbourhood around the deterministic trajectory whose size depends on forecasting uncertainty. Furthermore, the method elucidates the stochastic optimization problem yielding insights which cannot be easily obtained from the numerical application of discrete DP.
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  • 18
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 209-216 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Transport ; sedimentation ; random walk ; Markov chain in continuous time ; distribution of maximum
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A simple two-dimensional random walk model is developed for the motion of a particle in a fluid flow. Some earlier results for the persistent injection of particles into the flow are extended, and the distribution of the maximum number of particles in suspension over the period (0,t) is derived.
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  • 19
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 217-240 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Transport of fluid ; random network ; macro-permeability ; micro-geometry ; statistical mechanics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a detailed statistical analysis of Hagen-Poiseuille flow in plane random isotropic networks of interconnected channels. The emphasis is on statistico-geometrical features of networks that affect macroscopic permeability. It is shown that permeability of a network depends on its average co-ordination number, the first two moments of the channel length distribution and other explicitly identifiable geometrical features. Distributions of flow rates in channels and average flow rates are established by minimization of the rate of energy dissipation. Theoretical developments are interpreted in the context of classical statistical mechanics. Analytical results are illustrated and verified using numerical analysis of flow in a simulated random network.
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  • 20
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 280-280 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 21
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 241-262 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Martingale ; stochastic-convective ; stochastic-relativist ; spectral-integral ; perturbative ; statistical-mechanical
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The use of stochastic models in subsurface hydrology is growing at a logistic pace. To tie together a number of different stochastic methodologies for deriving subsurface transport equations, we have put together a brief review of some of the more common techniques. Our attention is confined to a few select methodologies so that we might delve in detail into assumptions required by the various approaches and their strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed include: Martingale, stochastic-convective, stochastic-relativist, spectral-integral, perturbative, statistical-mechanical, and generalized hydrodynamics. Within this list, we also have included a few stochastic methodologies which have been used solely to develop expressions for the dispersion tensor.
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  • 22
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 297-302 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic PDE ; Zakai equation ; nonlinear filtering ; distributed systems
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract We shall consider in this article a general class of stochastic PDE which in particular covers the Zakai equation of nonlinear filtering and natural formulations of distributed systems involving control variables. We use only fixed point arguments, hence we get uniqueness results. In the case of the Zakai equation, Galerkin approximations have been considered by Pardoux (1979) to derive the existence of the solution
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  • 23
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 281-296 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic groundwater flow ; semigroups ; random in time Gaussian process ; random physical parameters ; stochastic partial differential equations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Two methods for the solution of partial differential equations (PDE) for the general case of random in time physical parameters are presented and their application to the solution of unsteady regional groundwater flow equations are illustrated. The first method is the semigroup approach which directly offers a solution without resorting to “closure approximations” (hierarchy techniques), perturbation techniques, or Montecarlo simulation techniques. The semigroup approach can also handle the general stochastic problem when randomness also appears as initial conditions, boundary conditions or forcing terms. The second method is an approximation scheme to obtain the semigroup solution in complex cases and permits the solution of equations with more than one random coefficient.
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  • 24
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 303-318 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Rainfall-runoff models ; forecasting ; unit hydrograph
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Here we review the main thrusts of rainfall-runoff modelling with an eye toward the advantageous use of the massive date sets being accumulated and the modern computers capable of dealing effectively with such sets. More than a tutorial, this study is aimed at providing a unifying structure for analyzing available techniques. The closing section draws attention to the existence of an alternative methodology.
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  • 25
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 1 (1987), S. 263-279 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Porous media ; heterogeneity ; groundwater ; dispersion ; stochastic theory ; plume evolution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The migration of contaminants in heterogeneous aquifers involves dispersive processes that act at different scales. The interaction of these processes as a plume evolves can be studied by micro-scale modelling whereby two scales, a local- or micro-scale and an aquifer- or macro-scale, are covered simultaneously. Local-scale dispersive processes are represented through the local dispersion coefficient in the transport equation, while large-scale dispersion due to heterogeneities is represented through the resolution of the flow field and the diffusive exchange between streamtubes. The micro-scale model provides both the high degree of resolution compatible with local-scale processes, and the extent required for the approach to asymptotic conditions, using grids of up to a million nodal points. The model is based on the dual potential-streamfunction formulation for flow, and the transport problem is formulated in a natural coordinate system provided by the flownet. Simulations can be used to verify stochastic theories of dispersion, without the restrictive assumptions inherent in the theory. For the two-dimensional case, results indicate convergence of the effective dispersivity to the theoretical macrodispersivity value. Convergence takes place within a travel distance of about 50 correlation lengths of the hydraulic conductivity field. However, the approach taken to asymptotic conditions, as well as the macrodispersivity value, may differ for different realizations of the same medium. The influence of early-time events such as plume splitting on the asymptotic convergence remains to be investigated.
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  • 26
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 17-33 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: River flow forecasting ; discrete linear cascade model ; ARMAX ; coupled models ; Kalman filtering ; Danube
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The objective of the paper is to compare three recursive linear state space models used to forecast river flow. The three models are as follows: (i) Purely deterministic discrete linear cascade model (DLCM); (ii) Purely stochastic autoregressive moving average (ARMAX) time series model; and (iii) Coupled deterministic (DLCM) — stochastic (ARMA) model. Description of DLCM is given shortly. The state space formulation of the ARMAX model enables the recursive estimation of random walk parameters and the forecast of flows by linear Kalman filtering. The correlated error sequence of DLCM is described by an ARMA model. The DLCM and ARMA models are put together in a coupled deterministic-stochastic model. The recursive conditional forecasting of the augmented state vector is performed by the linear Kalman-filter. The conditional output forecast is given by linear projection of thea priori state vector. Numerical investigations on River Danube data lead to the conclusion that the coupled deterministic-stochastic model is the most efficient forecasting model of all the three recursive techniques compared.
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  • 27
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 61-72 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Binary data ; censored observations ; autocorrelations ; acid rain
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The properties of the well known estimator of the transition probabilities in a binary time series are investigated. A formula for the variance is obtained, which generally involves a double integral. However, in the case when the binary series is obtained by hard clipping of an AR(1) process, a good and fairly simple approximation is derived. In the MA(1) or MA(2) case exact formulae for the variance is given. In the appendix an excellent approximation to the fourth order cumulant of a clipped AR(1) process is derived, which may be of interest in other applications as well.
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  • 28
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 175-188 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Reservoir storage ; range ; adjusted range
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract It was remarked by Hurst in 1951 that the adjusted range gives the size of the smallest reservoir capable of providing a constant discharge equal to the mean inflow. Since that time this range and its rescaled modification, the Hurst range, have been widely discussed, not however primarily with a view to applying them to reservoir design problems, but rather on account of their possible relevance to the simulation of geophysical time series. Acknowledging the well-known conceptual weaknesses of adjusted ranges and the theoretical difficulties that inhibit their direct utilisation in the design and operation of real reservoirs, the authors argue that the interest displayed on ranges during the past few decades justifies the effort of eliminating one in particular of these weakness, namely their non-implementability as operating policies, a consequence of the fact that they can only be retrospectively evaluated. The paper proposes modifications in which the unknowable mean and standard deviation of future samples are replaced by the known mean and sample standard deviation of historical data, leading to the historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled and adjusted range. The latter is produced as an implementable approximation to Hurst's (1951) solution to the optimal reservoir problem. The expected values of the new ranges are evaluated and numerically tabulated.
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  • 29
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 245-261 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Geostatistics ; areal rainfall distribution ; areal reduction factor ; Gumbel distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Areal rainfall statistics are more relevant in flood hydrology and water resources management than point rainfall statistics when it comes to help designing dams or hydraulic structures. This paper presents a geostatistically based method to derive the areal statistics from point statistics. Assuming that the distribution models of point rainfall and areal belong to the same class of models and that the rainfall process is stationary, it is shown how the parameters of the areal distribution model can directly be computed from the parameters of the point distribution models in case of a non stationary process, an approximation is derived that yielded good results when applied to a mountainous region in Southern France. The method also allows the computation of the areal reduction factors in a very general form.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 303-315 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Physically based stochastic models ; stochastic dynamic models ; statistical predictability ; internannual variability ; ARMA models ; water level variations
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Several physically based stochastic dynamic models (SDM) are described including year-to-year variations of water volume in terminal and non-terminal lakes, streamflow of lake-fed rivers, and salinity of an inland sea (the Sea of Azov). All of these models are based upon the SDM of water volume of terminal lakes developed by Kritzky and Menkel in 1946 in co-operation with Kolomogorov. Explicit formulae are derived for second order statistical moments of the output processes, including variance, correlation function, spectra, etc., under the assumption that the forcing functions from stationary random sequences. The least-squares prediction problem is solved for both stationary and non-stationary cases. Some of the processes are shown to possess high statistical predictability. Actual predictions are compared with independent observations. Problems for further study are stated.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 1-16 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Width function ; instantaneous unit hydrograph ; peak ; regression ; birth-death process
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract We investigate optimal predictors of the peak (S) and distance to peak (T) of the width function of drainage networks under the assumption that the networks are topologically random with independent and exponentially distributed link lengths. Analytical results are derived using the fact that, under these assumptions, the width function is a homogeneous Markov birth-death process. In particular, exact expressions are derived for the asymptotic conditional expectations ofS andT given network magnitudeN and given mainstream lengthH. In addition, a simulation study is performed to examine various predictors ofS andT, includingN, H, and basin morphometric properties; non-asymptotic conditional expectations and variances are estimated. The best single predictor ofS isN, ofT isH, and of the scaled peak (S divided by the area under the width function) isH. Finally, expressions tested on a set of drainage basins from the state of Wyoming perform reasonably well in predictingS andT despite probable violations of the original assumptions.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 68-69 
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 281-292 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Generalised Pareto distribution ; Peaks over threshold ; Probability weighted moments ; Regionalisation
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    Notes: Abstract A peaks over threshold (POT) method of analysing daily rainfall values is developed using a Poisson process of occurrences and a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) for the exceedances. The parameters of the GPD are estimated by the method of probability weighted moments (PWM) and a method of combining the individual estimates to define a regional curve is proposed.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 155-160 
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 161-174 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Floods ; estimation ; quantiles ; generalized gamma ; generalized moments ; standard error
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    Notes: Abstract The generalized gamma (GG) distribution has a density function that can take on many possible forms commonly encountered in hydrologic applications. This fact has led many authors to study the properties of the distribution and to propose various estimation techniques (method of moments, mixed moments, maximum likelihood etc.). We discuss some of the most important properties of this flexible distribution and present a flexible method of parameter estimation, called the “generalized method of moments” (GMM) which combines any three moments of the GG distribution. The main advantage of this general method is that it has many of the previously proposed methods of estimation as special cases. We also give a general formula for the variance of theT-year eventX T obtained by the GMM along with a general formula for the parameter estimates and also for the covariances and correlation coefficients between any pair of such estimates. By applying the GMM and carefully choosing the order of the moments that are used in the estimation one can significantly reduce the variance ofT-year events for the range of return periods that are of interest.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 239-244 
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 201-212 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Flood risk ; flood frequency analysis ; generalised extreme value distributions
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    Notes: Abstract Conventional flood frequency analysis is concerned with providing an unbiased estimate of the magnitude of the design flow exceeded with the probabilityp, but sampling uncertainties imply that such estimates will, on average, be exceeded more frequently. An alternative approach is therefore, to derive an estimator which gives an unbiased estimate of flow risk: the difference between the two magnitudes reflects uncertainties in parameter estimation. An empirical procedure has been developed to estimate the mean true exceedance probabilities of conventional estimates made using a GEV distribution fitted by probability weighted moments, and adjustment factors have been determined to enable the estimation of flood magnitudes exceeded with, on average, the desired probability.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 263-279 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Cyclonic rain fields ; cyclone center behavior ; stochastic model
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    Notes: Abstract Earlier the authors have developed a stochastic geometric model for extratropical cyclonic precipitation fields at synoptic and meso scales as they are typically observed by weather radars over the mainland U S A (see Kavvas and Puri 1983; Kavvas et al. 1987). Here the earlier mathematical development of the model is further extended by incorporating the stochastic description of cyclone center births and their evolutions over U S A into the model.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 2 (1988), S. 315-316 
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 31-49 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Reservoir operation ; prediction ; Kalman filtering ; flood prevention ; fuzzy control
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    Notes: Abstract Japan has traditionally performed flood prevention through the construction and use of dikes, storage reservoirs, and basins which are costly and time consuming options. Another non-structural option is to operate the flood control system appropriately with a view to reducing flood damage. In this paper, a flood control system combining the runoff prediction model in the whole river basin with the reservoir operation is discussed. Different models of the runoff process are introduced in order to compare their accuracies and the computational time for the flood forecasting system. The reservoir operational rule is formulated in terms of fuzzy inference theory. Historical data are applied in a case study for verification of the proposed theories.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 69-69 
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 154-154 
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 155-178 
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    Keywords: Stochastic differential equations ; Stochastic Taylor formula ; Numerical methods ; Simulations ; Strong convergence ; Weak convergence
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    Notes: Abstract The development of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations has intensified over the past decade. The earliest methods were usually heuristic adaptations of deterministic methods, but were found to have limited accuracy regardless of the order of the original scheme. A stochastic counterpart of the Taylor formula now provides a framework for the systematic investigation of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations. It suggests numerical schemes, which involve multiple stochastic integrals, of higher order of convergence. We shall survey the literature on these and on the earlier schemes in this paper. Our discussion will focus on diffusion processes, but we shall also indicate the extensions needed to handle processes with jump components. In particular, we shall classify the schemes according to strong or weak convergence criteria, depending on whether the approximation of the sample paths or of the probability distribution is of main interest.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 217-226 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic integral equation method ; rainfall-runoff models ; confidence interval
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    Notes: Abstract The stochastic integral equation method (S.I.E.M.) is used to evaluate the relative performance of a set of both calibrated and uncalibrated rainfall-runoff models with respect to prediction errors. The S.I.E.M. is also used to estimate confidence (prediction) interval values of a runoff criterion variable, given a prescribed rainfall-runoff model, and a similarity measure used to condition the storms that are utilized for model calibration purposes. Because of the increasing attention given to the issue of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling estimates, the S.I.E.M. provides a promising tool for the hydrologist to consider in both research and design.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 241-260 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hat matrix ; Mahalanobis distance ; Additive outliers ; Innovation outliers ; Influential data ; Autoregressive models ; Threshold autoregression ; Lake Huron
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    Notes: Abstract A practical method is developed for outlier detection in autoregressive modelling. It has the interpretation of a Mahalanobis distance function and requires minimal additional computation once a model is fitted. It can be of use to detect both innovation outliers and additive outliers. Both simulated data and real data re used for illustration, including one data set from water resources.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 293-316 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Confined aquifer ; Transmissivity identification ; Geostatistics ; Inverse problem ; Ill-posedness ; Ill-conditioning ; Stability analysis ; Regularization
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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    Notes: Abstract In recent years, geostatistical concepts have been applied to the inverse problem of transmissivity estimation from piezometric head data. It has been claimed that such methods overcome various difficulties encountered in other approaches. However, the reconstruction of transmissivity from head measurements is ill-posed as it depends on derivatives of the head field. Consequently, any accurate method for its solution is likely to encounter numerically ill-conditioned systems. This paper reviews the geostatistical approach, and uses the stability analyses of linear algebra to show that, as the amount of available data increases and the discretization of the system is refined, both a numerically ill-conditioned parameter estimation problem and ill-conditioned cokriging equations may appear. Therefore, while the geostatistical approach does have conceptual appeal, it does not avoid the fundamental difficulties arising out of the ill-posed nature of transmissivity identification. Instead, the method is likely to be quite sensitive to these difficulties, so care must be taken in its formulation to minimize their effects. A means to stabilize the geostatistical method is suggested and numerical experiments that highlight key points of our analysis are given.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 57-70 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Auf der landwirtschaftlichen Universität von Norwegen (59δ 40′N, 10δ 46′E) wurde mit vier verschiedenen Lysimetern die potentielle Evapotranspiration (PET) von Gerste und von kurzgeschnittenem Gras gemessen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß in der aktiven Wachstumsperiode die PET von Gerste der PET von Gras gleich ist in Bestätigung der Tatsache, daß die Evapotranspiration von kurzer Vegetation in erster Linie durch meteorologische Faktoren beeinflußt wird, wenn die Wasserzufuhr nicht beschränkt ist. Mit der Formel von Priestley und Taylor PET =α Δ/Δ + γ R n, wo Δ den Abfall des Sättigungsdruckes mit der Temperatur,γ die Psychrometerkonstante undR n die Strahlungs. bilanz bedeuten, kann mit a gleich 1.25 die PET für zehntägige Perioden mit einer Genauigkeit von 10% geschätzt werden. Eine bessere Schätzung wird mit der Formel PET (mm pro 10 Tage) = −5,4 + 6,18 · 10−7 Δ/Δ + γ Rn (J/m2) erhalten.
    Notes: Summary Potential evapotranspiration (PET) from barley and short cut grass have been measured using four different lysimeters at the Agricultural University of Norway (59δ 40′N, 10δ 46′E). In the active growing season the results show that PET for barley is equal to PET for grass, confirming the fact that evapotranspiration is primarily controlled by meteorological factors for short vegetation when water supply is non-limiting. Using the Priestley-Taylor formula PET =α Δ/Δ + γ n, where Δ is the slope of the saturation pressure versus temperature curve,γ is the psychrometric constant andR n net radiation, PET can be estimated to an accuracy of 10% (67% level) for ten-day periods withα equal to 1.25. Even better estimates is obtained by using the formula PET (mm per 10 days) = − 5.4 + 6.18 · 10−7 Δ/Δ +γ R n (J/m2).
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 89-97 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Ein Sonnenscheingeber und seine Eichung wird beschrieben. Er ist gekennzeichnet durch folgende Merkmale: Sein elektrischer Spannungsausgang liegt hoch (〉 4,5 V) für den Fall „Sonnenschein” und tief (〈 0,4 V) für den Fall „kein Sonnenschein” Seine Eichung auf eine Schwellwertintensität von 200 W/m2 folgt der Sonnenscheindefinition durch die World Meteorological Organization. Er erfordert keine nennenswerte Wartung und er enthält keine beweglichen Teile.
    Notes: Summary A sunshine monitor and its calibration is described. Its important characteristics are: it has an electrical DC level output which is high (〉 4.5 V) for “sunshine” and low (〈 0.4 V) for “no sunshine”; it is calibrated for a threshold sensitivity of 200 W/m2, which meets the sunshine definition of the World Meteorological Organization; it requires very little service and contains no moving parts.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 99-109 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird gezeigt, daß auf Grund von Angaben in der Literatur die Konstanten für die statistische Beziehung zwischen der Globalstrahlung und der Sonnenscheindauer für Ostafrika nun hinreichend gesichert angegeben werden können. Werden die Unterschiede der Fehler bei der Datenerfassung mit anderen einfachen Meßmethoden der solaren Einstrahlung berücksichtigt, kann gezeigt werden, daß Campbell-Stokes Meßwerte gut geeignet sind zur Überprüfung, Kalibrierung oder zum zeitweisen Ersatz sonstiger Meßmethoden, wo in den Tropen keine geeichten Pyranometer verfügbar sind. Ein Beispiel wird gegeben für Gunn-Bellanis.
    Notes: Summary It is shown from literature research that constants in the statistical relationship between total global solar radiation and sunshine duration are now well established for East Africa. Taking into account the differences in data collection errors with other simple methods of solar radiation determination, we show Campbell-Stokes data to be suitable for checking, calibrating or temporarily replacing these other methods where no calibrated pyranometers are available in the tropics. An example is given for Gunn-Bellanis.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 129-135 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wurde die Globalstrahlung in GeU und GeMCap analysiert, womit es im Zusammenhang mit den thermo-pluviometrischen Angaben ermöglicht wurde, die klimatischen Charakteristiken eines am Meere gelegten Ortes (GeU) und eines auf den Appenninen gelegenen Ortes (GeMCap) zu beschreiben. Auf GeMCap weisen diese klimatischen Faktoren im Winter-Herbst einen kontinental-maritimen Charakter und im Frühling-Sommer einen streng kontinentalen Charakter auf.
    Notes: Summary It has been analysed the global solar radiation at GeU and GeMCap, that in connection with the thermo-pluviometric data has also allowed to outline the climatic characteristics of a coastal site (GeU) and of a site on Apennin ridge (GeMCap). At GeMCap these climatic parameters show a continental-maritime behaviour in winter-autumn and strictly continental feature in the remaining half year.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 111-128 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Der Zusammenhang zwischen Globalstrahlung und Sonnenscheindauer wird für 132 Stationen in Ostasien untersucht. Es zeigt sich, daß die Regressionskoeffizienten in der modifizierten ÅngströmgleichungQ/Qa = a + b n/N systematisch über das Gebiet verteilt sind, so daß sich niedrige Werte vona und hohe Werte vonb im Wintermaximum/Sommerminimum-Regime vonQ/Qa undn/N ergeben, hohe Werte vona und niedrige Werte vonb dagegen im Winterminimum/Sommermaximum-Regime vonQ/Qa undn/N anfallen. (Die Symbole werden in der Einleitung definiert.) Es ergibt sich daraus, daß Verteilungen der Regressionskoeffizienten eher an Terraingegebenheiten und an das lokale und jahreszeitliche Strahlungsklima geknüpft sind, das durch den vorherrschenden Wintermonsun, Baiu, kontrolliert wird, als an die geographische Breite und an Mittelwerte vonn/N.
    Notes: Summary The relationship between solar radiation and sunshine duration is studied for 132 stations in East Asia. Regression coefficientsa andb in the modified Ångström formulaQ/Qa = a + b n/N are found to be systematically distributed in the area with low values ofa and high values ofb in the winter maximum/summer minimum regime ofQ/Qa andn/N, and high values ofa and low values ofb in the winter minimum/summer maximum regime ofQ/Qa andn/N. This shows that the distribution of regression coefficients is more closely related to the local seasonal radiation climate controlled by the prevailing winter monsoon, Bain, and the terrain features rather than to latitude or meann/N.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 137-155 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Arbeit bringt eine Zusammenfassung der mit einem zweiteiligen Modell des täglichen Niederschlags zum Vergleich des Regenklimas von 11 Orten in einem Nord-Süd-Schnitt durch Westafrika erhaltenen Ergebnisse. Die Zahl der Regentage wurde gesondert von den Regenmengen analysiert. Es wurden Kurven der Wahrscheinlichkeit von Regen angepaßt; diese Kurven sind geographisch vereinbar. Die mittlere Länge der Trockenperioden und der Feuchteperioden variiert systematisch im Jahresgang. In der Regenzeit besteht ein nahezu konstantes mittleres Intervall von 4 Tagen zwischen dem Beginn aufeinanderfolgender Regenperioden. Regenmengen werden durch Gamma-Verteilungen beschrieben. Die mittlere Regenmenge pro Regentag ist verhältnismäßig konstant und die Änderung der Regenwahrscheinlichkeit ist daher die bedeutendste Komponente der jahreszeitlichen Änderung und der Differenzen zwischen den Orten.
    Notes: Summary This paper uses the concise summary obtained from a two part model of daily rainfall to compare the rainfall climate of eleven places on a north-south transect in West Africa. The number of rainy days is analysed separately from the amounts of rain. Curves are fitted to the probability of rain and these curves are geographically consistent. The mean length of dry spells and of wet spells vary systematically during the year. In the rainy season there is a nearly constant mean interval of about 4 days between the start of successive rainy spells. The amounts of rain are described by gamma distributions. The mean rainfall per rainy day is relatively constant and variation in the probability of rain is therefore the most important component of seasonal variation and of differences between places.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 167-179 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wurde die Abhängigkeit von feuchten und trockenen Tagen vom Zustand an vorhergehenden Tagen für sechs Stationen in Ost- und West-Afrika und in Südost-Asien untersucht. Während eine Anzahl von Untersuchungen in höheren Breiten darauf hinweisen, daß häufig nur der Zustand am vorhergehenden Tag in Betracht zu ziehen ist, zeigt das Ergebnis dieser Studie an, daß in den Tropen mindestens die zwei vorhergehenden Tage von Bedeutung sind. Für manche Stationen mag es angezeigt sein, in bestimmten Zeiten des Jahres die drei vorhergehenden Tage in Betracht zu ziehen.
    Notes: Summary Dependence of the occurrence of wet and dry days on the situation on previous days was tested for six stations in East and West Africa and South East Asia. Although a number of studies in higher latitudes suggest that often only the situation on the previous day needs to be taken into account, evidence from this pilot study indicates that in the tropics, at least the previous two days are important. For some stations at certain times of the year, it may be wise to consider the previous three days.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 157-166 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary This study, inspired by previous works, tries to establish a synthesis on a limited aspect: that is the variability of average precipitations over the Aegean Sea. Moreover, we consider variability parameters mostly used, as well as the most satisfactory technics for plotting this variability on the map.
    Abstract: Zusammenfassung In dieser Arbeit wird die Veränderlichkeit des Niederschlages im Ägäischen Meer zur Darstellung gebracht. Ferner werden die gebräuchlichsten Variabilitätsparameter und die am meisten befriedigenden Techniken der Kartendarstellung dieser Veränderlichkeit in Betracht gezogen.
    Notes: Résumé Cette étude qui s'inspire de travaux antérieurs tente d'établir une synthèse sur un aspect limité: selui de la variabilite des precipitations moyennes tombées dans la mer Egée. En outre, nous considérons les parameters de variabilite les plus utilisables, ainsi que les techniques les plus satisfaisantes pour la représentation cartographique de la variabilite.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 181-190 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary Windgustiness at the top of a tree which is relevant to tree vibrations within forests is described for a spruce forest (Ebersberger Forst near Munich) applying simple characteristic values of turbulence and gustiness.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Bei der Untersuchung von Baumschwingungen innerhalb von Wäldern ist die Windböigkeit an der Baumoberhöhe von großer Bedeutung. Für einen Fichtenwald, den Ebersberger Forst bei München, wird sie mit einfachen Turbulenz- und Böigkeitskenngrößen beschrieben.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 197-204 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung In früheren Untersuchungen langer atmosphärischer Wellen von niedriger Frequenz in der polaren Atmosphäre wurden Zylinderkoordinaten angewendet, wobei die Ebenez=0 die Erdoberfläche am Pole berührt. Dabei wurde mittels numerischer Beispiele gefunden, daß die in Zylinderkoordinaten erhaltenen Resultate gute Annäherungen an die mit Kugelkoordinaten berechneten darstellen. Hier wird gezeigt, daß die Formeln für die Wellenfrequenzen in beiden Koordinatensystemen angenähert gleich sind.
    Notes: Summary In earlier studies of long low-frequency atmospheric waves in the polar atmosphere a cyclindrical coordinate system had been used with the planez=0 tangential to the earth's surface at the pole. It had been found by numerical examples that the results obtained with a cylindrical coordinate system approximate quite well those obtained with a spherical coordinate system. Here, it is shown that the formulae for the wave frequencies in both coordinate systems are the same to a good degree of approximation.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 269-277 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es werden die Auswirkungen der Einbeziehung der vertikalen Scherung in das Problem der stetigen Strömung einer nichtviskosen rotierenden und geschichteten Flüssigkeit um ein isoliertes topographisches Hindernis besprochen. Es wird gezeigt, daß bei Baroklinität in der fern von dem Hindernis ungestörten Strömung, bei dem hier betrachteten Parameterbereich, ein antizyklonaler an das Hindernis gebundener Wirbel erzeugt wird, ähnlich wie im Fall ohne Scherung aber mit durch die Scherung modifizierter Intensität. Im besonderen nimmt, wenn die Geschwindigkeit der Grundströmung mit der Höhe zunimmt, die Intensität des Wirbels im Vergleich zum barotropen Fall wegen der horizontalen Advektion potentieller Temperatur ab. Für den Fall einer geringen Größe der Hindernisse werden analytische Lösungen gebracht.
    Notes: Summary The effects of inclusion of vertical shear in the problem of steady flow of an inviscid, rotating and stratified fluid past isolated topography are discussed. It is shown that the presence of baroclinicity in the undisturbed flow far from the obstacle, in the parameter range considered here, produces an anti-cyclonic vortex bound to the obstacle, like in the unsheared case, but whose intensity is modified by the shear. In particular, if the velocity of basic flow increases with height, the intensity of the vortex is decreased with respect to the barotropic case, because of the horizontal advection of potential temperature. Analytical solutions are presented in the case of small amplitude obstacles.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 205-217 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Mit Hilfe approximierter ageostrophischer Windkomponenten und iterativer Integration in einem quasi Lagrangeschen System werden Trajektorien abgeleitet. Die Verifikation erfolgt an Hand der Verlagerung charakteristischer Wolkensysteme mittels Satellitenbilder.
    Notes: Summary Trajectories are computed with the help of approximated ageostrophic windcomponents and the iterative integration method in a quasi Lagrangian system. The displacement of distinctive cloud systems localized from satellite images is used for verification.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 219-233 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird ein Parameter zur Feststellung des Minimalbereiches der übergeostrophischen Komponente der zonalen Strömung in einem westlichen Jet Stream aus der Bedingung bestimmt, daß eine geostrophische Bewegung nur in stabil geschichteten Medien möglich ist. Die Größe des übergeostrophischen Zonalwindes im Kerngebiet eines durchschnittlichen westlichen Jet Stream mittlerer Breiten wurde bei nahe von 60% der beobachteten zonalen Windgeschwindigkeit festgestellt. Die durch diese übergeostrophischen Zonalwindkomponenten verursachten nicht geostrophischen Querzirkulationen werden als thermisch indirekt und für die Entwicklung von einigen beobachteten Erscheinungen wie der Jet Stream Front, der Unterbrechung der nördlichen Tropopause quer zum Kern und der Clear air turbulence-Zonen in bestimmten Regionen eines westlichen Jet Stream als günstig erwiesen.
    Notes: Summary A parameter, for determining the minimum super-geostrophic component of zonal flow in a westerly jet stream, was identified, by invoking the condition that geostrophic motion is possible only in stably stratified media. The magnitude of super geostrophic zonal wind in the core region of an average mid-latitudinal westerly jet stream was found to be nearly 60% of the observed zonal wind speed. The non-geostrophic transverse circulations induced by this super-geostrophic zonal wind components were shown to be thermally indirect in nature and favourable for the formation of some of the observed features like jet stream front, break of the northern tropopause across the core and CAT (clear air turbulence) zones in certain regions of a westerly jet stream.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 249-267 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Mit Verwendung von in der zweiten Phase der Venezueler internationalen meteorologischen und hydrologischen Experimente (VIMHEX-1972) gesammelten Radar-Daten wurde eine Klassifikation von Unwettern in Böenlinien, in Gewittergruppen und in isolierten Gewittern vorgenommen. Die Verhältnisse in der nahen Umgebung während des Vorrückens dieser Typen von Unwetter werden untersucht. Die Modifikation der Umgebung wird, abgeleitet aus der trocken-statischen Energie, aus der feucht-statischen Energie, aus dem latenten Wärmegehalt und aus den relativen Winden, ebenfalls studiert und ein für die Unwetter entwickeltes Modell wird vorgelegt. Schließlich werden einige Aspekte der Bewegung der Unwettergebilde beschrieben.
    Notes: Summary A classification of storms in squall lines, thunderstorm clusters, and isolated thunderstorms was made using radar data collected during the second phase of the Venezuelan International Meteorological and Hydrological Experiments (VIMHEX-1972). The near-environmental conditions in advance of these types of storms are examined. The modification of the environment, as deduced from the dry static energy, moist static energy, latent heat content and relative winds is also studied, and a conceptual model for the storms is presented. Finally, some aspects of storm movement are described.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 235-247 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Untersuchung wurde an einem äquivalenten barotropen Modell zum Studium der Stabilität des meridionalen Windes im 200 mb-Niveau im Sommer in den Tropen durch-geführt. Das von Wiin-Nielsen für mittlere Breiten eingeführte äquivalente Modell wurde mit einigen Änderungen auch für die Tropen angenommen. Es wurde gefunden, daß der meridionale Wind einer Anzahl von überlagerten Rossby-Wellen äquivalent ist, so daß sich das Stabilitätsproblem der meridionalen Strömung auf das Stabilitätsproblem von Rossby-Wellen zurückführen läßt. In der vorliegenden Untersuchung wurde die Stabilität einer Rossby-Welle mit einer Störung, die einen zonalen Wind ergibt, geprüft. Es wurde gefunden, daß kurze Rossby-Wellen instabil sind, so daß die kurzen Rossby-Wellen ihre kinetische Energie auf den zonalen Wind übertragen. Das von Lorenz hinsichtlich der Instabilität der Rossby-Welle für mittlere Breiten gewonnene Ergebnis wurde mit dem äquivalenten barotropen Modell verbessert.
    Notes: Summary The present study is conducted in the equivalent barotropic model to study the stability of meridional wind at 200 mb level in tropics during summer. The equivalent barotropic model, which was introduced by Wiin-Nielsen [1] for midlatitude, is accepted for tropics after some possible changes. The meridional wind is found to be equivalent to a number of superposed dispersive Rossby waves, so the stability problem of meridional flow reduces to the stability problem of Rossby waves. In the present study, the stability of single Rossby wave is tested with a perturbation which gives zonal wind. It is found that the short Rossby waves are unstable, so the short Rossby waves release their kinetic energy to the zonal wind. Thus, the short waves of the spectral meridional flow release their kinetic energy to the zonal wind. For midlatitude, Lorenz's problem regarding the instability of Rossby wave is improved using the equivalent barotropic model.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 279-299 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es werden die monatlichen und jahreszeitlichen Mittel, die Extreme und die Veränderlichkeit des Meereises der Süd-Hemisphäre aufgrund 5jähriger Beobachtungen untersucht. Seine Veränderlichkěit ist am größten in den geographischen Längen der Küsteneinbuchtungen der Antarktis; es wurde auch eine kleine aber allgemeine Abnahme seiner Ausdehnung in allen Jahreszeiten dieser Beobachtungsperiode festgestellt. Zum Maximum der Eisausdehnung (Juli bis November) nimmt das 5jährige Mittel der zonalen Westwinde im Norden des Eises mit zunehmender Eisausdehnung zu; in einzelnen Jahren besteht jedoch zum Maximum der Eisausdehnung keine deutliche Korrelation zwischen der zonal gemittelten Eisausdehnung und der Stärke der zonalen Westströmung im vorhergehenden oder folgenden Monat. Der Vergleich mit dem 5jährigen Mittel der Längenverteilung der atmosphärischen Druck-Maxima und Minima in der Breite des antarktischen Trogs weist allgemein auf Asymmetrien im Eisrand hin, derart, daß er in Gebieten mit häufigem Tiefdruck weiter nördlich liegt und veränderlicher ist und in Gebieten mit relativ hohem Druck weiter südlich liegt. Die Untersuchung einer spezifischen Längenzone zeigt, daß die Verteilung der Eisausdehnung deutlich regional ist und offenbar mit Änderungen in der kombinierten ozeanischen und atmosphärischen Zirkulation in den antarktischen Einbuchtungen in Beziehung steht.
    Notes: Summary The monthly and seasonal means, extremes and variability of the Southern Hemisphere sea ice are examined for a five year period. Its variability is found to be greatest in the longitudes of the Antarctic coastal embayments, and a small but general decline in extent at all seasons throughout the period is observed. At near maximum ice extent (July to November), the 5 year mean of the zonal westerlies to the north of the ice increases with increasing ice extent; however for individual years, at maximum ice extent, there is no clear correlation between zonally averaged ice extent and the strength of the zonal westerlies in the preceding or succeeding month. Comparison with the 5 year mean longitudinal pattern of atmospheric pressure maxima and minima at the latitude of the Antarctic trough points generally to asymmetries in the ice edge, such that it is further north and more variable in regions of frequent low pressure, and further south in regions of relatively high pressure. Examination of a specific longitudinal zone indicates that the pattern of ice extent is clearly regional, and apparently related to variations in the combined oceanic and atmospheric circulation particularly in the Antarctic embayments.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 215-228 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird über die Anwendung der Hauptkomponentenanalyse zur Abgrenzung von Gebieten mit ähnlichen säkularen Tendenzen im Niederschlag berichtet. Eine Alternativmethode der Regionalisierung wird vorgeschlagen und auf eine Reihe von Beobachtungsdaten angewendet, die bereits früher mit der Hauptkomponentenanalyse analysiert worden ist.
    Notes: Summary The use of principal components analysis to delimit regions with similar secular trends in rainfall totals is reviewed. An alternative method of regionalization is proposed and is applied to a data set previously analysed using principal components analysis.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 327-332 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Maximalwellen energiereicher Erdbeben mit Herd in der oberen Kruste rufen im äußeren Schütterbereich häufig Resonanzeffekte hervor, die eine örtliche Steigerung der Bebenintensität zur Folge haben. Eine Bewertung solcher Intensitäten nach den gebräuchlichen makroseismischen Skalen ist derzeit nicht möglich. Geht man davon aus, daß die primären Bebenwirkungen an der Erdoberfläche eine Folge der vom Bebenherd abgestrahlten Schwingungsenergie sind und daß die makroseismische IntensitätI (oMSK oder MM) ein logarithmisches Maß für die Bebenwirkungen ist, dann gilt offenbarI=log10 E+const, wennE die örtliche Energiestromdichte (Flächendichte der seismischen Energie) ist. Während im Epizentralbereich wegen der Unregelmäßigkeit der Erdstöße ausgeprägte Resonanzeffekte fehlen, muß man in herdfernen Gebieten, wo die Sg-Maximalwellen des Bebens schon weitgehend harmonisch sind, bei schwingungsanfälligen dünnen Bodenschichten und/oder Bauwerken mit entsprechender Eigenperiode Resonanzschwingungen erwarten, die eine Anhebung der lokalen Bebenintensität um ΔI (oMSK oder MM) bewirken. Mit Hilfe von empirischen Näherungsformeln kann man zu einer Abschätzung dieser Intensitätssteigerung kommen. Sie beträgt ΔI=0,28M s+0,4, mitM s als Oberflächenwellen-Magnitude. Die von der Epizentraldistanz und Magnitude abhängigen Resonanzfrequenzen liegen in der Regel zwischen 0,5 und 2 Hz. Die denkbare Intensitätssteigerung durch Resonanz im Falle eines Bebens der Magnitude 4,0 (7,0) liegt bei 1,5° (2,4°) MSK oder MM. Daraus folgt z. B., daß viele der in Hochhäusern bemerkten und mitI=IIo bewerteten Beben eigentlich mitI=Io zu klassifizieren sind und daß das Anschlagen kleiner Glocken oder das Stehenbleiben von Pendeluhren am Rande des Schüttergebietes eines energiereichen Bebens nichtI=Vo (−VIo), sondernI=IIIo (−IVo) entspricht. Die 12teiligen makroseismischen Skalen sind daher in entsprechender Weise zu ergänzen.
    Notes: Summary In the epicentral area of an earthquake with the focus within the upper crust the rocking is irregular and therefore resonance effects are lacking, but far off the hypocentre, where theSg maximum waves are nearly sinusoidal, thin layers of soil and/or buildings with an appropriate natural period react with resonance oscillations, by which the local macroseismic intensity is increased by ΔI (oMSK or MM). The resonance frequencies — functions of magnitude and hypocentral distance — mostly range from 0.5 to 2 Hz. The increase of intensity can be assessed by the aid of the formula ΔI=0.28M s+0.4, found by the author (M s=surface wave magnitude). Hence, in case of an earthquake withM s=4.0 (7.0) the marginal increase of intensity by resonance amounts to 1.5° (2.4°) MSK or MM. This implies, e. g., that many earthquakes perceived in tall buildings and considered asI=IIo has to be classified asI=Ic correctly, and the ringing of small bells or the stopping of pendulum clocks in the outskirts of the shaken area of a strong earthquake corresponds toI=IIIo (−IVo), and not toI=Vo (−VIo). A valuation of such intensities by the aid of the usual macroseismic scales is not possible, and therefore these scales are to be supplemented in an appropriate way.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 229-237 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Sichtbeobachtungsdaten der Periode 1968 bis 1972 in Phönix, Arizona, wurden analysiert, um zu zeigen, wie Änderungen im Laufe der Woche und im Tagesgang durch charakteristische Verunreinigungsquellenstärke und durch meteorologische Erscheinungen beeinflußt werden. Die Ergebnisse bilden eine Grundlage für künftige Untersuchungen zur Klärung von Nachwirkungen einer technologischen Modifikation von Verunreinigungscharakteristiken.
    Notes: Summary Visibility data for the period 1968–1972 at Phoenix, Arizona were analyzed to show how variations among days of the week and hours of the day may be influenced by both pollutant source strength characteristics and meteorological phenomena. The results form the basis for future studies designed to decipher subsequent effects of technological modification of pollutant characteristics.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 31 (1982), S. 385-397 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Das fluktuierende Geschwindigkeitsfeld eines monomolekularen Films (Slik) wird mittels der Grenzschichttheorie für den Fall untersucht, daß Schwerewellen sich auf der Grenzfläche zwischen Wasser und Luft ausbreiten. Es wird dabei angenommen, daß das oberflächenaktive Material viskoselastische Eigenschaften aufweist und unlöslich ist. Es werden graphische Ergebnisse wiedergegeben, die die Geschwindigkeit a) im Zentrum des elastischen Sliks und b) für nicht dehnbare Sliks willkürlicher Weite veranschaulichen. Für letzteren Fall werden Ringe von oberflächenbildenden Elementen berechnet und schematisch dargestellt.
    Notes: Summary The fluctuating velocity field of monomolecular slicks is investigated, by means of boundary-layer theory, whengravity waves propagate on the air-water interface. It is assumed that the surface-active material has visco-elastic properties and is insoluble. Graphical results are given, which illustrate the velocity (a) at the centre ofelastic slicks and (b) for inextensible slicks, of arbitrary width. In the latter case, the orbits of the surfactant elements are calculated, and shown diagrammatically.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 31 (1982), S. 431-432 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 31 (1982), S. 353-367 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Zur Feststellung von hinsichtlich paralleler Schwankungen der Niederschlagsmengen von Jahr zu Jahr zusammenhängender Gebiete werden Korrelationen zwischen monatlichen Mengen verschiedener Stationen verwendet. Von solchen zusammenhängenden Gebieten wurden eines im Herbst, drei im Winter und zwei im Frühling festgestellt. Die Erklärung der Existenz solcher zusammenhängender Gebiete wurde mit Unterschieden charakteristischer Merkmale von Niederschlagsregimes und mit Beziehungen zu verschiedenen synoptischen Systemen versucht.
    Notes: Summary Correlations of monthly totals from different stations were used to identify coherent regions in terms of parallel fluctuations of rainfall amounts from year to year. One coherent region was found during the fall, three during the winter and two during the spring. An attempt to explain the existence of those coherent regions with different known features of the rainfall regime and to relate them to different synoptic systems, was done.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 31 (1982), S. 379-390 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Mit klimatologischen Beobachtungsdaten sind für 61 Stationen in Österreich die Strahlungsbilanz sowie die potentielle und aktuelle Evapotranspiration berechnet worden. Für diese Berechnungen wurden einige Methoden der Verdunstungsbestimmung miteinander verglichen und an einigen Stationen auch Trockenheitsindizes berechnet. Als ein Ergebnis wird vorgeschlagen, daß das Land in vier klimatologische Regionen mit unterschiedlichen Temperatur- und Feuchteverhältnissen unterteilt werden kann.
    Notes: Summary The net radiation, potential and actual evapotranspiration for 61 stations in Austria have been calculated from climafological data. Some methods for these calculations have been compared and the indices of aridity for the 61 stations have also been estimated. As a result, it has been suggested that the country could be divided into four climatological regions with different thermal and humid conditions.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 53-57 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Etliche jüngst erhaltene, empirische Resultate und theoretische Untersuchungen der Abschätzung der thermischen Strahlung der Atmosphäre aus wolkenlosem Himmel werden diskutiert. Es wird gezeigt, daß des strahlungsmäßige Verhalten des Wasserdampfes bei Lufttemperaturen über dem Gefrierpunkt so gut als möglich und nötig parameterisiert worden ist, doch bei Temperaturen unterhalb des Gefrierpunktes sind noch Verbesserungen möglich. Zusätzlich wird gezeigt, daß Vorschriften zur genauen Berechnung der atmosphärischen Thermalstrahlung in der Lage sein müssen, die Effekte der zeitlichen und räumlichen Variabilität der Staubverteilung in Betracht zu ziehen.
    Notes: Summary Several recent empirical findings and theoretical developments related to the estimation of clear-sky atmospheric thermal radiation are discussed. It is demonstrated that the radiative behavior of water vapor at air temperatures above freezing has been parameterized as well as can or need be done, but that there may be room for some improvement at air temperatures below freezing. It is additionally shown that any procedure designed to accurately calculate atmospheric thermal radiation must be able to handle effects of airborne dust variability of both a temporal and spatial nature.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 1-22 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die interannuale Veränderlichkeit in der Ausdehnung des antarktischen Meereseises wird während der winterlichen Zuwachsperiode (Juni bis September) für die fünf Jahre 1973–77 untersucht. Statistische Korrelationen zwischen den synoptischen atmosphärischen Zirkulationsverhältnissen, gegeben durch die Frequenz der von Satelliten beobachteten außertropischen Tiefdruckgebiete, und der breitenmäßigen. Ausdehnung des Meereseises werden auf hemisphärischer und regionaler Basis für jeden Winter ausgewertet. Markante Unterschiede in der winterlichen Zyklonentätigkeit begleiten die jährlichen Unterschiede im Wachstum und in der Ausdehnung des Eises, gemessen im zonalen Mittel, und sind besonders in den extremen Eiswintern 1973 und 1977 evident. Ein Zusammenhang zwischen der Ausdehnung des Meereseisgebietes während des Winters und der Frequenz von Zyklogenese ist besonders für die geographischen Breiten unmittelbar nördlich der Eisgrenze angedeutet. Drei Schlüsselgebiete starker interannualer Veränderlichkeit in den Eisbedingungen werden identifiziert und statistisch auf Rückwirkungen zwischen Eis und Zyklonen hin untersucht. Korrelationen zwischen der geographischen Breite des Eisrandes und der Zyklonenfrequenz zeigen die geringste interannuale Veränderlichkeit im ostantarktischen Sektor. Durch diese Gegebenheit wird die Rolle des semi-permaneten Tiefdruckzentrums im Wintereisregime dieser Region betont. Andererseits variiert die Korrelation zwischen Eis und Zyklonentätigkeit von Jahr zu Jahr bedeutend in der Weddellsee, wo die meeresbedingten Advektionsverhältnisse von zusätzlicher Bedeutung sind. Einzeluntersuchungen aus dem Zeitraum der fünf Winter dienen als Unterstützung der für jeden Sektor gewonnenen, statistischen Resultate.
    Notes: Summary Interannual variations in the extent of Antarctic sea ice are investigated for the winter growth season (June through September) for the five years 1973–77. Statistical correlations between the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, given by the frequencies of satellite-observed extratropical depressions, and the latitudinal extent of the ice are evaluated on hemispheric and regional scales for each winter. Marked differences in winter cyclone activity accompany the year-to-year variations in ice growth and extent on a zonally-averaged basis, and are particularly evident for the extreme ice winters of 1973 and 1977. A link between the expansion of the sea ice zone during winter and the frequencies of new cyclonic developments (cyclogenesis) is evident for latitudes immediately north of the ice-ocean boundary. Three key regions of high interannual variability in ice conditions are identified and examined statistically for ice-cyclone interactions. Correlations between ice-edge latitude and cyclone frequencies show least variation between years in the East Antarctic sector, emphasizing the role of the semi-permanent low pressure center in the winter ice regime of this region. Conversely, ice-cyclone correlations vary markedly from year-to-year in the Weddell Sea, where ocean-related ice advection patterns are of additional significance. Case studies from the five-winter period are used to support the statistical results obtained for each sector.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 99-107 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung zeigen, daß in Jodhpur die Feuchtigkeit in kahlem sandigen Boden größer ist als in einem Boden unter einer Vegetationsdecke. Das mittlere Temperaturmaximum war in 5 cm Tiefe im allgemeinen um 1 bis 2°C höher als im Boden unter einer Vegetationsdecke, ausgenommen im Juh, wo eine beträchtliche Temperatur-abnahme im kahlen Boden eintrat. Die Tagestemperatur in 5 cm Tiefe war im Sommer höher als in tieferen Schichten, was zu einem abwärtsgerichteten Wärmefluß führte. Im Winter waren die Temperaturen in tieferen Schichten höher, was einen aufwärtsgerichteten Fluß von Wärme und Wasserdampf bewirkte. Es wurde eine große Veränderlichkeit des Wärmeflusses mit im allgemeinen positivem Fluß im Sommer und negativem Fluß im Winter beobachtet.
    Notes: Summary The results of the studies conducted during 1977–78 show higher moisture regime of a bare sandy soil of Jodhpur than the soil with vegetative cover. Mean maximum temperature of a bare soil at 5 cm depth, in general, was 1 to 2°C higher than the soil with vegetative cover except during July when there was considerable fall in temperature of a bare soil. Daytime soil temperatures at 5 cm depth during summer were higher than the lower depths leading thereby to downward movement of heat. In winter, however, the temperatures of lower layers were higher facilitating the upward flow of heat and the vapour flux. A high variability in heat fluxes with generally positive daytime heat fluxes in summer and negative in winter were observed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 23-34 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Sorgfältig ausgewählte AMTEX-Daten wurden zur Berechnung von ähnlichkeitsfunktionen für die Parametrisierung des Oberflächen-Stress und des Wärmetransportes in der konvektiven atmosphärischen Grundschicht verwendet. Die ähnlichkeitsfunktionen für den Stress, die aus den über die Schicht gemittelten mittleren Windkomponenten bestimmt wurden, stimmen für den baroklinen Fall nicht mit ihren aus numerischen Modellen für den barotropen Fall bestimmten Gegenstücken überein, im Widerspruch zu dem, was wir von der Hypothese von Arya und Wyngaard [ 10] erwarten. Vielleicht waren die verwendeten Rawinsonden-Daten für die Verifikation dieser Hypothese nicht gut genug. Es wurde jedoch gefunden, daß die konvektive PBL-Höhe in übereinstimmung mit der Hypothese von Kazanski und Monin [6] mit dem Stabilitätsparameter gut korreliert ist.
    Notes: Summary Carefully selected AMTEX data were used to compute the similarity functions for the parameterization of the surface stress and heat flux for the convective atmospheric boundary layer. The similarity functions for the stress determined from the layer-averaged mean wind components for the baroclinic case don't agree with their counterparts predicted by numerical models for the barotropic case, contrary to what we expect from the hypothesis of Arya and Wyngaard [10]. Perhaps the rawinsonde data used in this study were not good enough for the verification of this hypothesis. However, the non-dimensionalized convective PBL height is found to be well correlated with the stability parameter in accordance with the Kazanski-Monin hypothesis [6].
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 55-69 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Eine lineare, barokline Stabilitätsanalyse wird auf das vertikale, zonale Windprofil der Grundströmung vor der Bildung einer Depression während der MONEX-79-Phase in der Bucht von Bengalen angewendet, wobei ein quasi-geostrophisches, mehrschichtiges, numerisches Modell verwendet wird. Die aus der Zuwachsrate des Spektrums abgeleitete, bevorzugte Wellenlänge beträgt 1400 km für eine Kanalbreite von 1500 km und eine e-fache Vergrößerungszeit von 5.2 Tagen. Die vertikale Wellenstruktur wurde berechnet und mit der beobachteten Struktur der Depression verglichen. Beide besitzen mehrere gemeinsame Grundzüge. Die vertikale Struktur der bevorzugten Welle, aus einem modifizierten Windprofil abgeleitet, in dem die Windscherung unterhalb des Westwindmaximums entfernt wurde, zeigt bessere Übereinstimmung mit der Depressionsstruktur, als die aus dem vollen Windprofil erhaltene Struktur. Der Effekt der vertikalen Veränderlichkeit der statischen Stabilität in den unteren Schichten auf das Wachstum der kurzen, instabilen Wellen wird untersucht. Es zeigt sich, daß eine Abnahme der statischen Stabilität in den unteren Schichten zu einer Zunahme der Wachstumsrate und einer Abnahme der bevorzugten Wellenlänge führt.
    Notes: Summary A linear baroclinic stability analysis is performed for the basic vertical zonal wind profile prior to the formation of the depression during Bay of Bengal phase of MONEX-79 by utilizing a quasi- geostrophic, multilayer, numerical model. The preferred wavelength obtained from the growth rate spectrum is 1400 km for the channel width 1500 km, with an e-folding time 5.2 days. The wave structure in the vertical is computed and compared with the observed structure of the depression. Many common features are noticed between them. Further, the vertical structure of the preferred wave obtained from the modified wind profile, removing wind shear below the westerly maximum level, shows closer agreement to the depression structure than that obtained from the full profile. The effect of vertical variation of static stability in the lower layers on the growth of short unstable waves is studied. It is found that a decrease in static stability in the lower layers resulted in the increase in growth rate and decrease in the preferred wavelength.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 97-101 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung In der Arbeit wird der Hintergrund des äquivalent barotropen Modells, wie es von Mahanti [6, 7, 8] eingeführt worden ist, im Detail besprochen.
    Notes: Summary The physical background of the equivalent barotropec model, introduced by Mahanti [6, 7, 8], has been discussed in details in the present study.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 161-185 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Bei der Modellierung mesoskaliger Küstenklimaeffete sind wegen des Übergangs Land-Meer, repräsentiert durch die Rauhigkeitslangez 0 =z 0 (x, y) und die WärmekapazitätC 0 =C 0 (x,y), und des verstärkten Einflusses der Feuchte ausgeprägte Inhomogenitaten zu berücksichtigen, welche die meteorologischen Verhältnisse signifikant mitgestalten. Mit Hilfe eines dreidimensionalen numerischen Modells werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit die Auswirkungen solcher horizontaler Inhomogenitaten auf Struktur und Variation der Grenzschicht in der Küstenregion studiert, Bowie die Entstehung von Advektionsnebel unter dem Einfluss unterschiedlicher geostrophischer Winde untersucht. Die Modifizierung der Windstärke und Windrichtung in ihrer Abhängigkeit von der Rauhigkeitslange und der unterschiedlichen thermischen Schichtung Bowie zwei Beispiele von Advektionsnebelbildung bei unterschiedlichem geostrophischem Wind werden als Ergebnisse vorgestellt.
    Notes: Summary When modelling mesoscale effects in the coastal climate we have to account for the significant influence of humidity and for the land-sea contrast which is represented by the roughness lengthz 0 =z 0(x, y) and the heat capacityC 0 =C 0 (x, y). This brings about strong horizontal inhomogenities which affect the meteorological situation significantly. The effects of these inhomogenities on the structure and variation of the boundary layer in the coastal region are studied by use of a three-dimensional numerical model; the formation process of advective fog in connection with different geostrophic winds is also investigated. As main results we present 1) the modifications of wind velocity and wind direction as a function of the roughness distribution and different thermal stratifications and 2) two simulations of advective fog formation assuming different geostrophic wind values in each example.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 201-218 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Statistische auf Andauer und Klimatologie begründete Modelle werden zur Vorhersage der Bahnen tropischer Zyklonen von der Nordwestküste Australiens her angewendet. Ein auf die Zeit 1980–81 bezogener Vergleich zeigt, daß eine Anpassung erster Ordnung nach kleinsten Quadraten von acht primären Vorhersagegrössen eine hohe Stufe statistischer Signifikanz hat und vergleichbare mittlere Fehler bei Vorhersagen auf Grund von Regressionsgleichungen höherer Ordnung gibt.
    Notes: Summary Statistical models based on persistence and climatology are used to forecast tropical cyclone tracks off the northwest coast of Australia. A comparison based on the 1980–81 season shows that a first order least squares fit of the eight primary predictors has a higher level of statistical significance and comparable mean forecast errors to predictions based on higher order regression equations.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 297-308 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die asymptotische Form des Diffusionstensors in einer Scherungsströmung (im besonderen in einer Ekman-Strömung) wird auf eine zweidimensionale vertikal gemittelte Diffusionsgleichung mit einem Schwächungsterm erster Ordnung angewendet. Einige klassische Lösungen für punktförmige Quellen werden besprochen und auf ein Modell einer Scherungsströmung angewendet. Lösungen für nichtkonstante Quellen werden diskutiert, wobei der Effekt des Abschneidens des Diffusionsprozesses im hochfrequenten Bereich dargelegt wird. Eine einfache Anwendung auf experimentelle Daten in mesoskalem Abstand wird auch gezeigt.
    Notes: Summary The asymptotic form of the diffusivity tensor in shear flow (in particular Ekman flow) is applied to a two-dimensional, vertically averaged diffusion equation with a decay term of the first order. Some classical solutions for point sources are reviewed and applied to the shear flow model; solutions for non-constant sources are discussed, putting into evidence the cut-off effect of the diffusive process in the high frequency range. A simple application to experimental data on mesoscale distance is also shown.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 301-307 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Arbeit gibt die Bedingung der Instabilität von Wellen mit unbegrenzter seitlicher Ausdehnung an. Es wird auch gezeigt, daß die obere atmosphärische kurze Welle der zonalen Wellenzahl 8 und die niedrige atmosphärische Zyklonenwelle beim Fehlen diabatischer Erwärmung instabil werden und zusammenbrechen.
    Notes: Summary The present paper gives a condition of instability of waves of infinite lateral extent. Also, it is shown that the upper atmospheric short wave of zonal wave number 8 and lower atmospheric cyclone scale wave become unstable and break down in the absence of diabatic heating.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 281-288 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die täglichen Höhenwindbeobachtungsdaten, die von Schiffsbeobachtungen im MONEX-79 erhalten wurden, sind einer 2-D Filterung unterworfen worden, deren Reaktion hinsichtlich der Wellenzahl so ist, daß Wellen mit Wellenlängen kleiner als 760 km ausgefiltert wurden. Diese gefilterten Windkomponenten wurden „Wirbeln” zugeordnet. Die kinetische Energie dieser „Wirbel” in 3 Phasen des Monsuns, nämlich vor dem Beginn des Monsuns (Mai), zum Monsuneinsatz (Juni) und im vollentwickelten Monsun (Juli), wird untersucht. Es wurde festgestellt, dass der Beitrag dieser „Wirbel” zur kinetischen Energie des Gesamtwindes von einem Minimum von 15,5% in der Vormonsunzeit bis 40% in der Phase des voll entwickelten Monsuns variiert. Der Energieaustausch zwischen den „Wirbeln” und den grosskaligen Windkomponenten zeigt an, daß während der Phase des entwickelten Monsuns die untere Troposphäre bis 700 mb eine baroklin instabile Grundströmung zu haben scheint, während in den anderen Phasen die Grundströmung im allgemeinen barotrop instabil ist.
    Notes: Summary The daily upper-air wind data, obtained from the MONEX-79 ship observing platforms, are subjected to a 2-D filter, whose wavenumber response is such as to filter out waves having wavelengths less than 760 km. The filtered wind components are referred to as “eddies”. The kinetic energies of these eddies during the three phases of the monsoon, viz. (a) pre-onset (May), (b) onset (June), (c) established (July) are studied. It is found that the contribution to the kinetic energies of the total wind, by the eddies, vary from a minimum of about 15.5% during the pre-onset phase to a maximum of 40% during the established phase. The energy exchanges between the eddy and large-scale wind components, indicate that during the established phase the lower troposphere, upto 700 mb, appears to have a baroclinically unstable basic flow, while during the other phases, the basic flow is, in general, barotropically unstable.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 310-310 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 339-352 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Ein zeitabhängiges, auf den Grundgleichungen basierendes, numerisches Modell wurde verwendet, um die Hypothese zu prüfen, daß solare Veränderlichkeit eine Änderung in den Grundvariablen der oberen Atmosphäre und somit in der planetaren Langwellenstruktur der unteren Atmosphäre hervorrufen kann. Dieser Mechanismus wurde zur Erklärung einer offensichtlichen, atmosphärischen Reaktion auf solare Schwankungen herangezogen. Im Modell wird diese Veränderlichkeit durch eine diabatische Wärmequelle hervorgerufen, welche als eine einfache Repräsentation der Jouleschen Dissipationserwärmung angenommen wird. Die Langwellenstruktur der unteren Atmosphäre zeigte sich als unbeeinflußbar durch sonneninduzierte Vorgänge in der oberen Atmosphäre. Tatsächlich auftretende Veränderungen sind auf eine Distanz von 25 bis 40 km unterhalb des Niveaus maximaler Erwärmung beschränkt und sind von nur kurzer Lebensdauer.
    Notes: Summary A time-dependent, primitive-equation numerical model is used to test the hypothesis that solar variations induce changes in the distributions of basic state variables at high levels in the atmosphere, and thus induce changes in planetary-scale wave structure at lower atmospheric levels. This mechanism was proposed to explain apparent atmospheric responses to solar activity. The changes are brought about in the model by a diabatic heat source, which is taken to be a simple representation of Joule dissipative heating. Lower atmospheric wave structure is found to be insensitive to solar-induced changes in the upper atmosphere. Such changes as do occur are limited to within 25 to 40 km below the level of maximum heating, and are also quite short-lived.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 389-397 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Wir betrachten die Dynamik langer Wellen mit begrenzter Amplitude in einer quasigeostrophischen Atmosphäre. Es wird gezeigt, daß sie den von Charney und Drazin formulierten Theoremen für vertikale Reflexion und Verbindung mit der zonalen Strömung genügen. Es wird ferner gezeigt, daß der typische Effekt des kritischen Niveaus auch für solche Wellen gilt.
    Notes: Summary We consider the dynamics of finite amplitude long waves in a quasi-geostrophic atmosphere. It is shown that they satisfy the well known theorems, formulated by Charney and Drazin, for vertical reflection and coupling with zonal flow. It is further shown that the typical critical level effect holds for such waves as well.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 405-406 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 337-360 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die bodennahen nordhemisphärischen Temperaturvariationen 1881–1980 und einige in Frage kommende externe Einflußparameter werden statistisch untersucht. Die statistischen Maßzahlen und Tests jährlicher und jahreszeitlicher Daten zeigen, daß es sinnvoll ist, den tiefpaßgefilterten langfristigen Trend (T 〉 30 Jahre) vom verbleibenden hochpaßgefilterten Anteil zu trennen, wobei dieser weitgehend die Charakteristika einer stationären und vielleicht auch stochastischen Zeitreihe erfüllt. Der langfristige Trend muß jedoch als die nicht-stationäre Komponente angesehen werden, die vermutlich von externen Einflußmechanismen des Klimasystems gesteuert wird. Die spektral-statistischen Untersuchungen stützen dieses Konzept, weisen jedoch auch, wie die nicht-spektralen Untersuchungen, auf jahreszeitliche Besonderheiten hin. 84–91% des langfristigen (aber nur 38–65% des jährlichen) Anteils der Varianz lassen sich durch vulkanisch-solare Parameter sowie den beobachteten anthropogenen CO2-Anstieg erklären, wobei die Erfassung des solaren Einflusses sehr problematisch ist. Multiple lineare Korrelations- und Regressionsanalysen führen zu Abschätzungen der Signal-Amplituden und des Signal-Rausch-Verhältnisses. Neben dem vulkanischen und solaren Signal ist das CO2-Signal in den Jahresdaten, weniger signifikant in den Sommerdaten, auffindbar.
    Notes: Summary This is a statistical study on the northern hemisphere temperature variations near surface, 1881–1980, and some possible external forcing parameters. The statistical measures and tests of yearly and seasonal data indicate that it is reasonable to separate the low-pass filtered long-term trend (T 〉 30 years) from the remaining high-pass filtered quantity, where the latter fulfills closely the characteristics of a stationary may be stochastic time series. The long-term trend, however, has to be seen as the non-stationary component presumably driven by external forcing mechanisms of the climatic system. The spectral statistics maintain this concept; but there are, as in case of the non-spectral statistics, distinct seasonal peculiarities. 84–91% of the long-term (but only 38–65% of the yearly data's) variance can be explained by volcanic/solar parameters and the observed anthropogenic CO2 increase, where the solar influence, however, is very problematical to realize. A multiple linear correlation and regression analysis leads to assessments of the signal magnitudes and the signal to noise ratios. Besides the volcanic and solar signal, the CO2 signal is detectable in yearly and — less significant — in summer data.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1984), S. 11-20 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Energieflüsse wurden im Dischma-Tal in der Nähe von Davos in 1970 m Höhe vom 6. bis 15. August 1980 gemessen. Sie waren ein Teil einer Sonderuntersuchung mikroskaliger atmosphärischer Bedingungen in einem alpinen Tal. Die allgemeine Funktion ϕ H konnte von einem Satz von Profilmessungen der Temperatur, der Feuchtigkeit und der Windgeschwindigkeit abgeleitet werden. Sie entspricht der Beziehung, die auch über homogenem Terrain gefunden worden ist.
    Notes: Summary Surface energy fluxes were measured in the Dischma-valley near Davos, Switzerland at 1970 m from August 6th to August 15th, 1980. They are part of a case study for the microscale atmospheric conditions of an alpine valley. The universal function ϕ H could be derived from the whole set of profile measurements of temperature, humidity and wind speed. It corresponds to the relation which was found over homogeneous terrain.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1984), S. 31-37 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die nichtlineare Wechselwirkung zwischen großskaligen Rossby-Wellen wird mit Anwendung eines spektralen Modells einer barotropen Atmosphäre in sphärischer Geometrie einer Betrachtung unterzogen. Es wurde gefunden, daß es, wenn eine willkürliche Zahl von zonalen Komponenten in Betracht gezogen wird, möglich ist, die nichtlineare Energie- und Entropie-Strömung zwischen Rossby-Wellen vorherzusagen, deren Wechselwirkung mit einfacher triadischer Resonanz nicht vorhergesagt werden kann. Mit Beziehung auf die Ergebnisse einer Arbeit von Baines wird gezeigt, daß eine solche Art von zonal mittlerer, nichtlinearer Energieströmung imstande ist, einige wichtige Besonderheiten der numerischen Integration von verkürzten Modellen mit einer großen Zahl von Komponenten zu erklären, und als Folgerung an einigen Besonderheiten der großskaligen Zirkulation schuld sein könnte.
    Notes: Summary The non-linear interaction between large-scale Rossby waves is considered making use of a spectral model of a barotropic atmosphere in spherical geometry. It is found that, if an arbitrary number of zonal components is taken into account it is possible to predict the non-linear energy and enstrophy flux between Rossby waves whose interaction cannot be predicted by single triadic resonance. It is shown, referring to the results of a paper by Baines, that such kind of, zonally mediated, non-linear energy flux is capable of explaining some relevant features of numerical integrations of truncated models with a large number of components and, could, as a consequence be responsible of some features of the large-scale circulation.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1984), S. 49-53 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird ein einfacher theoretischer Vergleich zwischen dem Phänomen der Entwicklung von Mischungsschichten in Laboratoriumsexperimenten und in wirklichen geophysikalischen Situationen durchgeführt. Die relative Wichtigkeit von Inversionschichten in der Atmosphäre wird im Kontrast zur vernachlässigbaren Rolle dargelegt, die die Inversionsschicht bei Laboratoriumsexperimenten spielt, solange der Effekt von ausgestrahlten Schwerwellen in Betracht gezogen wird.
    Notes: Summary A simple theoretical comparison is carried out between the phenomenon of the evolution of mixed layers in laboratory experiments and in actual geophysical situations. The relative importance of the inversion layers in the atmosphere is evidentiated in contrast with the negligible role played by the inversion layer in laboratory experiments as long as the effect of radiated gravity waves is taken into account.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1984), S. 61-67 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es werden die Verhältnisse im Luft-Meer-Grenzbereich im frühen Entwicklungsstand einer Depression über der östlichen zentralen Arabischen See während der Monsun MONEX-79 durch Analyse der Schiffsbeobachtungsdaten über Luft- und Meerestemperaturen, Luftdruck an der Oberfläche, Seegang und Wind untersucht. Diese Analyse zeigte eine ausgesprochene Zunahme der Temperaturdifferenz zwischen Meer und Luft (2–4 °C) und diese Zunahme erweist sich klar als durch eine Abnahme der Lufttemperatur verursacht. Die änderungen in der Temperaturdifferenz zwischen Meer und Luft und des Luftdrucks verlaufen in zueinander entgegengesetzter Phase. Einige einleuchtende Mechanismen für die beginnende Entwicklung und die Bewegung der Depression werden auch besprochen.
    Notes: Summary The air-sea interface properties during the early stages of formation of a depression over East Central Arabian Sea during summer MONEX are examined by analyzing the ship data for air and sea temperatures, sea level pressures, sea state numbers and wind fields. Analysis of the data revealed a pronounced increase in sea-air temperature difference (2–4 °C) and this increase in the value is considered, obviously, to be due to a drop in the air temperature. The variations in the sea-air temperature difference and surface pressure are in opposite phase to each other. Some of the plausible mechanisms for the incipient development and movement of the depression are also discussed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1983), S. 19-30 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Auf der Grundlage von ausgeglichenen Energieflüssen (einschließlich Abfuhr der Nutzungsenergie) innerhalb einer flachen Sonnenenergie-Kollektorplatte und von Energieflüssen zwischen Kollektor und seiner Umgebung wird mit Verwendung von bekannten Klimadaten ein Módell für die Simulation von Tagesgängen des Energieaustausches und -gewinns entwickelt. Numerische Experimente mit diesem Modell zeigen auch eine interessante Abhängigkeit der nutzbaren Energie von einigen meteorologischen Parametern wie Nebel, Niederschläge und Wind.
    Notes: Summary On the basis of balanced energy fluxes (including the removal of useful energy) inside the flat-plate solar-energy collector, and the energy fluxes between the collector and its environment, a model for simulation of daily courses of energy exchanges and gain is constructed, using the known climatic data. Numerical experiments with this model show also an interesting dependence of useful energy on some meteorological parameters like: fog, precipitations and wind.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1983), S. 11-18 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Zur Untersúchung der Ausbreitungs- und Konzentrationsformen von Autoabgasen von einer Straße in einem V-förmigen Tal wird ein numerisches Modell angewendet. Diese Formen sind mit dem Windzirkulationssystem der bei Tag und bei Nacht vorherrschenden Strömung quer zum Tal eng verbunden. An einem typischen Tag mit einer relativ starken Oberflächenerwärmung war die Abgasfahne zum Leehang gegen den Kamm hin geneigt und bog dann zurück zur Abwindrichtung mit der vorherrschenden Strömung. In einer typischen Nacht mit stabiler Schichtung zeigte die Ausbreitung nicht die Form einer Abgasfahne, sondern eher eine diffuse Ausbreitung aufwärts und eine mehr oder weniger horizontale Verbreitung.
    Notes: Summary A numerical model is utilized to investigate the dispersion and concentration pattern of vehicular exhaust gas from a v-shaped valley highway. These patterns are closely associated with the wind circulation regimes in the prevailing cross-valley flow during typical day and night times. In the typical day with relative strong surface heating the exhaust plume first inclined to the lee slope toward to the ridge then curved back to the downwind direction with the prevailing flow; in the typical night with stable condition the dispersion showed no plume pattern but rather diffused upward and spread out more or less horizontally.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 39 (1988), S. 169-183 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary The observed daily pressure fields over the Arctic are compared with those obtained from a control run of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model using a classification typing procedure developed by Kirchhofer (1973) and a rotated principal components analysis for both data sets. The simulated patterns appear quite realistic in both frequency and geographical characteristics, although the model data show greater extremes and more closed cells. The procedure described provides a potentially useful method for evaluating the synoptic representativeness of GCM simulations.
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  • 93
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 39 (1988), S. 132-168 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary An analysis of mesoscale gravity wave events during the severe weather outbreak in the Red River Valley on 10–11 April 1979 is presented utilizing surface pressure data and the 3 h rawinsonde data from the AVE-SESAMEI special network. The unique data set provided by the SESAME field experiment makes it possible to relate the wavelike characteristics observed at the surface to the variability of the temperature, humidity, and wind fields over a deep tropospheric layer that act to initiate and sustain the waves over long distances and time periods. Three different wave events (A, B, and C) were identified via spectral analysis and cross-correlation techniques. They all have similar periods, approximately 3 h, but different phase velocities. All three wave events are generated and propagate in the exit region or anticyclonic side of upperlevel jet streaks. Convection and wind shear are shown to be unlikely contributors to the generation of event A, which is probably related to the development of a strong divergent field in association with an upper-tropospheric jet streak and to the ensuing mass adjustment process. Events B and C also appear in a region of strong ageostrophic motion associated with an upper-level jet streak. However, the low values of the Richardson number (Ri) at the critical levels of these two waves suggest vertical wind shear as a likely contributor to their generation and/or maintenance. A linear stability analysis confirms, with unprecedent spatial and temporal resolution, that a modal structure is present in the atmosphere whose characteristics are consistent with those of waves B and C. Three-hourly rawinsonde data show strong temporal and spatial variability throughout the troposphere in the wind, temperature, and humidity fields when the waves are present. Convective systems, as detected by radar, are closely linked to the waves, although not in a consistent manner: cells intensify or develop at the passage of a wave trough in event A, at the passage of a wave ridge in event C, and at the passage of a wave trough or ridge in event B, depending on the geographic location of the cells. For all three events, maximum rainfall recorded at the surface is associated with a wave ridge with a time lag of approximately 1 h.
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  • 94
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 39 (1988), S. 184-196 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary In this paper, analytic solutions of the nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic forms of Long's model were obtained under two different sets of vertical boundary conditions: The first uses a sumusoidal obstacle at the lower boundary and a rigid-lid top for the upper boundary. The second set applies an isolated obstacle of the “Witch of Agnesi” type at the lower boundary, while still using a rigid lid at the top. Following the solution evaluations, comparisons between the nonhydrostatic and hydrostatic solutions were processed in order to describe several influences introduced by using the hydrostatic assumption in this model. Through comparisons we have found that, in the case of a sinusoidal lower boundary condition, the hydrostatic solution is obtained as the zero mode of the nonhydrostatic solution. The influence of the hydrostatic assumption on the model solution is trivial in this case. When an isolated lower boundary condition is applied, however, the solutions illustrate dramatic differences, showing the significance of the effect of hydrostatic assumption on this model's solutions. These effects vary considerably with the model parameters as well. The comparison results also reveal that the realization of the hydrostatic assumption in this model's solutions is accomplished through the vertical boundary conditions used in the model evaluations.
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  • 95
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    Notes: Summary To investigate the effect of atmospheric turbulence on microwave communication links, temperature and water vapor pressure have been measured and radio refractivity has been computed, during different meteorological conditions, in the atmospheric boundary layer of an urban site. The cospectra between temperature (T) and water vapor pressure (e) have been found to be either negative over the whole range of frequencies, or the low-frequency end of the cospectrum is of opposite sign relative to higher frequency end. In both cases cospectra follow a−5/3 law in the inertial subrange, in agreement with the theoretical predictions. The coherence spectra clearly show that the temperature and humidity fluctuations are highly coherent within the inertial subrange under both convective and stable conditions. The relative contribution ofC T 2 ,C eT andC e 2 to the real refractive index structure parameterC n 2 is examined and discussed.
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  • 96
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 67-87 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung In einem Artikel von Garrat ([5], S. 915), der sich zusammenfassend und kritisch mit der jüngsten Forschung über die aerodynamische Reibung über einer Wasseroberfläche auseinandersetzt, heißt es: “Die Auswirkungen des Fetches, der Dauer und der Unstetigkeit eines Windes sind unbekannt und verstecken sich wohl hinter der Streuung der experimentellen Resultate”. In unserem Artikel ist ein Versuch unternommen worden, vorhandene Resultate von Experimenten am Genfersee auf eine Fetchabhängigkeit zu untersuchen. Dabei wird eine funktionelle Beziehung zwischen dem lokalen Reibungs- oder Widerstandskoeffizienten,C 10, und einer Fetch-Reynoldszahl, (U 10 F)/ν, mit einer dimensionslosen Rauhigkeit,F/y 0, als Parameter vorgeschlagen. Weiter wird gezeigt, daß eine Beziehung zwischen dem Rauhigkeitsparameter und dem Seegang (ausgedrückt als signifikante Welle,H 1/3) möglich ist. Diese Studie sollte als Vorstudie angesehen werden; sie diente unter anderem als Grundlage für ein größeres aerodynamisches Projekt am Genfersee.
    Abstract: Résumé Dans un article récent sur le coefficient de frottement, Garrat ([5], p. 915) laisse supposer que «les effets du fetch, de la durée et de la variabilité du vent s'ils existent, demeurent obscurs dans la dispersion des données expérimentales». Dans cet article, on essayera d'analyser l'éventuelle dépendance du fetch sur les données obtenues au cours des campagnes de mesures sur le Léman. On admettra qu'une relation entre le coefficient de frottement local,C 10, et le nombre de Reynolds de fetch,(U 10 F)/ν, existe, avec la rugosité adimensionelle,F/y 0, comme paramètre. Puis on discutera de l'éventuelle relation entre le paramètre de rugosité et l'état de surface du lac (exprimé ici en fonction de la vague significative). Cette étude est à considérer plutôt comme un travail préliminaire à l'établissement d'un nouveau programme expérimental projeté sur le Léman.
    Notes: Summary In a recent review on the drag coefficient, Garrat ([5], p. 915) pointed to the fact that “The effect (if any) of the fetch, wind duration and unsteadyness remains obscure in this experimental data scatter”. The present paper makes an attempt to analyse, in the light of a fetch dependency, data which have been accumulated on the Lake of Geneva. Postulated is a possible functional relationship between the local drag coefficient,C 10, and a fetch Reynolds number, (U 10 F)/ν, with a dimensionless roughness,F/y 0, as parameter. Subsequently, a possible relationship between the roughness parameter and the sea state (expressed presently with the significant wave) is discussed. The present study should be considered as preliminary in as much as it served to establish another field programme on Lake Geneva.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 89-107 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Summary There are typical cloud configurations in satellite images which are produced and/or maintained mainly by vorticity. These are: comma, enhanced cumuli, wave in a frontalband, upper level low and the cloud spiral of a low. Looking at satellite images there can be observed sometimes an increase sometimes a decrease during the further development of the cloud systems. The type of further development is also dependent on the value of the associated vorticity. In this paper there is examined the relationship between cloud systems and vorticity and there are investigated thresholds of vorticity. Are these thresholds, which are different for the different cloud systems, exceeded, one can conclude — with a certain degree of probability — that cloud systems will increase (that means a further weather activity). Are the thresholds not exceeded one can expect a decrease of the cloud systems.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Es gibt typische Bewölkungskonfigurationen, die überwiegend durch Vorticity produziert und/oder aufrecht erhalten werden. Dazu gehören: Komma, enhanced Cumulibewölkung, Welle im Frontalband, Höhentief und Kern eines Tiefdruckwirbels. Aus Satellitenbildern kann beobachtet werden, daß sich die Bewölkungssysteme manchmal während ihrer Entwicklung verstärken, manchmal abschwächen. Die Art der Weiterentwicklung hängt unter anderem von der Stärke der zugeordneten Vorticity ab. In dieser Arbeit werden die Zusammenhänge zur Vorticity untersucht und Schwellwerte der Vorticity aufgestellt. Werden die Schwellwerte, die für die einzelnen Systeme verschieden sind, überschritten, so kann mit einer bestimmten Wahrscheinlichkeit auf Verstärkung (weitere Wetterwirksamkeit) geschlossen werden. Werden die Schwellen unterschritten, kann Abschwächung des Systems angenommen werden.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 119-130 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Eine Analyse einer großen Zahl von Groß-Regenfällen in Verbindung mit tropischen Depressionen, Zyklonen und schweren Unwettern hat ergeben, daß Groß-Regenfälle im September 1880 und im Juli 1927 über die Niederung des Landes die größten Flächenniederschlagshöhen in Indien brachten. Diese Rekord-Niederschlagshöhen wurden für verschiedene Flächengrößen und Andauern bestimmt und mit ähnlichen Rekord-Flächenniederschlagshöhen über dem tropischen Gebiet der USA verglichen. Diese Untersuchung hat gezeigt, daß für Andauern von zwei und drei Tagen die Rekord-Flächenniederschlagshöhen in Indien größer waren als in den USA. Für die Andauer von einem Tag waren bis zu einer Fläche von 5180 km2 (2000 Quadratmeilen) diese Flächenniederschlagshöhen in den USA größer, für größere Flächen waren sie aber in Indien entweder größer oder nahezu gleich wie in den USA.
    Notes: Summary On the basis of analysis of a large number of rainstorms associated with tropical disturbances such as depressions, cyclonic storms and severe storms, it has been found that September, 1880 and July, 1927 rainstorms over the plain areas of the country gave the highest areal rain depths in India. These rain depths have been worked out for different areas and durations and have been compared with the similar areal rain depths over the tropical region of USA. This study has shown that for durations of 2 and 3 days, Indian areal rain depths have been higher in magnitude when compared to USA rain depths. For one-day duration, upto 5180 sq.km (2000 sq.miles) area, USA areal rain depths are greater, while for larger areas Indian rain depths are either higher or almost equal with that of USA.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 131-141 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Während der Monsun-, Premonsun- und Postmonsunzeiten über der tropischen Station Calcutta bei Gewittern auftretende Atmospherics zeigen einige typische Charakteristiken. In allen Fällen ist ein stufenweises Ansteigen (GRA) und ein gleichmäßiges Abklinge (SRA) der Atmospherics festgestellt worden. Zwischen diesen zwei Änderungen tritt eine plötzliche Steigerung der Atmospherics (SEA) auf, die manchmal aus zwei Komponenten SEA1 und SEA2 zusammengesetzt ist. Diese bei 10 und 20 kHz beobachteten Tatbstände der integrierten Feldintensität der Atmospherics (IFIA) wurden in ihrer Beziehung zu Monsun-, premonsunalen und postmonsunalen Gewittern kritisch untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß der Niederschlag während der Monsun- und postmonsunalen Gewitter mit dem gleichmäßigen Rückgang der IFIA verbunden ist, während er bei den premonsunalen Gewittern mit der zweiten plötzlichen Steigerung der Atmospherics in Verbindung steht. Diese Anomalien wurden mit Ladungstrennungen in Gewittern in Zusammenhang gebracht. Ferner wurden auch die Unterschiede der entsprechenden Amplituden bei 10 und 20 kHz bei den verschiedenen Variationen der IFIA kritisch untersucht.
    Notes: Summary Thunderstorm associated atmospherics during the monsoon, premonsoon and postmonsoon seasons over the tropical station Calcutta show some typical characteristics. In all the cases gradual rise of atmospherics (GRA) and steady recovery of atmospherics (SRA) have been found. In between the above two changes, there is the sudden enhancement of atmospherics (SEA) which is some times composed of two components SEA1 and SEA2. All the above facts of the integrated field intensity of atmospherics (IFIA) observed at 10 and 20 kHz have been critically examined here in relation to monsoon, premonsoon and postmonsoon thunderstorms. The results exhibit that the precipitation is associated with the steady recovery of IFIA during the monsoon and postmonsoon thunderstorms while that during premonsoon thunderstorms is associated with the second sudden enhancement. These anomalies have been interpreted in terms of charge separation within thunderclouds. Moreover, the difference of the respective amplitudes at 10 and 20 kHz of the different variations of IFIA have also been critically focussed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 157-165 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Eine mit der H-N-Methode durchgeführte numerische Berechnung hat die Existenz einer zyklonalen elliptischen Zelle im inneren Teil des Liguirischen Meeres ergeben. Dieses Resultat ist in Übereinstimmung mit dem auf einer Kreuzfahrt im März 1952 im selben Gebiet experimentell entdeckten Wirbel. Es wurde der Einfluß der seitlichen Küstenbergrenzungen am nordöstlichen Zugang zum Becken des Tyrrhenischen Meeres in Rechnung gezogen und die Annahme südlicher Winde als treibenden Mechanismus für diesen Wirbel besprochen.
    Notes: Summary A numerical calculation computed by the H-N method has shown the existence of a cyclonic elliptic cell in the inner part of the Ligurian Sea. This result agrees with an experimental vortex discovered in the same area during a cruise in March 1952. The influence of the lateral coastal boundaries at the north-eastern entrance of the basin into the Tyrrheinian Sea has been taken into account and the hypothesis of southerly winds as the forcing mechanism of this vortex has been discussed.
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