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  • 1
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    Formation and maintenance of subsiding shells around non‐precipitating and precipitating cumulus clouds (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-20
    Description: A shell of subsiding air is generally known to develop around cumulus clouds and shield them from their environment. We seek here to improve our understanding of such shells by (a) revealing the detailed vertical and horizontal structure of shells surrounding both shallow and deeper clouds, and (b) identifying the mechanisms responsible for in‐shell subsidence generation and maintenance. To that end, a high‐resolution Cloud Resolving Model simulation of the shallow‐to‐deep convection transition over a tropical land surface is analysed with an emphasis on the cloud's near environment. Shells surrounding shallow and deep clouds are found to possess surprisingly similar characteristics. However important differences are observed near cloud top where the deepest clouds are associated with stronger subsidence and broader shells. In the convective outflow region, stronger in‐shell subsidence coincides with strong buoyancy reversal, but also with strong pressure gradients naturally generated by cloud‐top vortex dynamics. A more delicate balance between various processes takes place below, and in‐shell subsidence is only barely sustained as buoyancy reversal is largely compensated by pressure gradients. Finally, while evaporation is clearly the main source of buoyancy reversal everywhere around cloud edges, it is also shown that the downward transport of warmer air from aloft through the subsiding shells may compensate for evaporative cooling to slowly bring in‐shell buoyancy to a near‐neutral state. Overall, while it cannot be denied that evaporative cooling and buoyancy reversal play important roles in generating and sustaining in‐shell subsidence, the present results also emphasise that mechanical forcing at cloud top and downward transport within the shells should not be overlooked.
    Description: Narrow “shells” of subsiding air generally form around cumulus clouds, but the mechanisms responsible for their formation and maintenance are still debated. In this study, the dynamics of these shells is investigated using a high‐resolution simulation of idealized tropical convection. It is shown that in‐shell subsiding motions are generally driven by buoyancy reversal. However, mechanical forcing contributes at least equally at the top of all convective clouds. In addition, it is found that buoyancy reversal due to evaporative cooling may be offset by the downward transport of warmer air from aloft through the subsiding shells.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cloud dynamics ; near‐cloud environment ; subsiding shells ; tropical convection
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  • 2
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    An application of WKBJ theory for triad interactions of internal gravity waves in varying background flows (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-20
    Description: Motivated by the question of whether and how wave–wave interactions should be implemented into atmospheric gravity‐wave parametrizations, the modulation of triadic gravity‐wave interactions by a slowly varying and vertically sheared mean flow is considered for a non‐rotating Boussinesq fluid with constant stratification. An analysis using a multiple‐scale WKBJ (Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin–Jeffreys) expansion identifies two distinct scaling regimes, a linear off‐resonance regime, and a nonlinear near‐resonance regime. Simplifying the near‐resonance interaction equations allows for the construction of a parametrization for the triadic energy exchange which has been implemented into a one‐dimensional WKBJ ray‐tracing code. Theory and numerical implementation are validated for test cases where two wave trains generate a third wave train while spectrally passing through resonance. In various settings, of interacting vertical wavenumbers, mean‐flow shear, and initial wave amplitudes, the WKBJ simulations are generally in good agreement with wave‐resolving simulations. Both stronger mean‐flow shear and smaller wave amplitudes suppress the energy exchange among a resonantly interacting triad. Experiments with mean‐flow shear as strong as in the vicinity of atmospheric jets suggest that internal gravity‐wave dynamics are dominated in such regions by wave modulation. However, triadic gravity‐wave interactions are likely to be relevant in weakly sheared regions of the atmosphere.
    Description: This study explores wave–wave interactions of modulated internal gravity waves (GWs) in varying background flows using WKBJ techniques. The resulting ray‐tracing model (b) is compared to wave‐resolving LES (a). As a key result, we find that wave modulation partially suppresses the energy exchange in triadic GW interactions, and thus triadic GW interactions are likely to be relevant in weakly sheared regions of the atmosphere.
    Description: German Research Foundation (DFG) US National Science Foundation
    Keywords: 551.5 ; internal gravity waves ; parametrization ; ray‐tracing ; triadic wave–wave interaction ; wave modulation
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  • 3
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    Water temperature control on CO2 flux and evaporation over a subtropical seagrass meadow revealed by atmospheric eddy covariance (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: Subtropical seagrass meadows play a major role in the coastal carbon cycle, but the nature of air–water CO2 exchanges over these ecosystems is still poorly understood. The complex physical forcing of air–water exchange in coastal waters challenges our ability to quantify bulk exchanges of CO2 and water (evaporation), emphasizing the need for direct measurements. We describe the first direct measurements of evaporation and CO2 flux over a calcifying seagrass meadow near Bob Allen Keys, Florida. Over the 78‐d study, CO2 emissions were 36% greater during the day than at night, and the site was a net CO2 source to the atmosphere of 0.27 ± 0.17 μmol m−2 s−1 (x̅ ± standard deviation). A quarter (23%) of the diurnal variability in CO2 flux was caused by the effect of changing water temperature on gas solubility. Furthermore, evaporation rates were ~ 10 times greater than precipitation, causing a 14% increase in salinity, a potential precursor of seagrass die‐offs. Evaporation rates were not correlated with solar radiation, but instead with air–water temperature gradient and wind shear. We also confirm the role of convective forcing on night‐time enhancement and day‐time suppression of gas transfer. At this site, temperature trends are regulated by solar heating, combined with shallow water depth and relatively consistent air temperature. Our findings indicate that evaporation and air–water CO2 exchange over shallow, tropical, and subtropical seagrass ecosystems may be fundamentally different than in submerged vegetated environments elsewhere, in part due to the complex physical forcing of coastal air–sea gas transfer.
    Description: Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001655
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Florida ; Bob Allen Keys ; seagrass meadows ; air–water CO2 exchanges ; biometeorological measurements
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  • 4
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    SAD: Verifying the scale, anisotropy and direction of precipitation forecasts (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-20
    Description: One important attribute of meteorological forecasts is their representation of spatial structures. While several existing verification methods explicitly measure a structure error, they mostly produce a single value with no simple interpretation. Extending a recently developed wavelet‐based verification method, this study separately evaluates the predicted spatial scale, orientation and degree of anisotropy. The scale component has been rigorously tested in previous work and is known to assess the quality of a forecast similar to other, established methods. However, directional aspects of spatial structure are less frequently considered in the verification literature. Since important weather phenomena related to fronts, coastlines and orography have distinctly anisotropic signatures, their representation in meteorological models is clearly of interest. The ability of the new wavelet approach to accurately evaluate directional properties is demonstrated using idealized and realistic test cases from the MesoVICT project. A comparison of precipitation forecasts from several forecasting systems reveals that errors in scale and direction can occur independently and should be treated as separate aspects of forecast quality. In a final step, we use the inverse wavelet transform to define a simple post‐processing algorithm that corrects the structural errors. The procedure improves visual similarity with the observations, as well as the objective scores.
    Description: Forecasts of precipitation fields are difficult to evaluate due to their complex, intermittent spatial structure. The SAD forecast verification method uses wavelets to compare the scale (colours in the top row), anisotropy (bottom, arrow length) and preferred direction (bottom, arrow angles) of simulated and observed fields. The new approach is successfully tested using data from the MesoVICT community project.
    Description: German Research Foundation (DFG)
    Keywords: 551.5 ; MesoVICT ; precipitation forecasts ; structure error ; verification ; wavelets
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  • 5
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    Spatiotemporal Variability of the Southern Annular Mode and its Influence on Antarctic Surface Temperatures (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the predominant atmospheric variability mode in the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper, we present the spatial variability results of the SAM pattern for the period 1979–2018. The SAM‐intrinsic pattern variability analysis is based on the principal component analysis (PCA), which is carried out for the ERA‐Interim 500 hPa geopotential height (GPH) data set. A spatiotemporally resolved data set of SAM pattern maps (PCA loadings) is derived by projecting monthly shifted sub‐sequences of SAM index values (PCA scores) on the corresponding GPH anomalies. The dominant SAM structure within single pattern fields is mapped automatically and can be interpreted as the Southern Hemisphere polar front. This data set allows an analysis of the geographical positions of the characteristic circumpolar SAM structure over four decades and shows considerable variability over space and time. Five different states of SAM patterns, which are associated with characteristic circulation anomalies during different phases of the study period, are identified. Station‐based Antarctic temperature anomalies can be synoptically explained by these circulation anomalies. The overall latitudinal trend of the SAM pattern indicates an intensification of the meridional structure, especially over the East Antarctic Southern Ocean. Furthermore, we show that the SAM pattern variability is significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Composites of 500 hPa GPH anomalies during the positive and negative phases of the respective indices indicate teleconnections with Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and this can explain latitudinal trends of the SAM pattern.
    Description: Key Points: We present a new approach to examine the spatiotemporal Southern Annular Mode pattern variability. Station‐based Antarctic temperature anomalies are related to different structures of the Southern Annular Mode. The trend pattern shows an increasing meridional structure and correlations with Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal oscillations.
    Description: DLR Management Board: Young Investigator Group Leader Program
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Southern Annular Mode ; SAM pattern variability ; Antarctic circulation variability ; Antarctic station temperature ; PDO ; AMO
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  • 6
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    Influence of Radiation on Evaporation Rates: A Numerical Analysis (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: We present a fully coupled soil‐atmosphere model that includes radiation in the energy balance of the coupling conditions between the two domains. The model is able to describe evaporation processes under the influence of turbulence, surface roughness, and soil heterogeneities and focuses specifically on the influence of radiation on the mass and energy transport across the soil‐atmosphere interface. It is shown that evaporation rates are clearly dominated by the diurnal cycle of solar irradiance. During Stage‐I evaporation maximum temperatures are regulated due to evaporative cooling, but after a transition into Stage‐II evaporation, temperatures rise tremendously. We compare two different soil types, a coarser, sandy soil and a finer, silty soil, and analyze evaporation rates, surface temperatures, and net radiation for three different wind conditions. The influence of surface undulations on radiation and evaporation is analyzed and shows that radiation can lead to different local drying patterns in the hills and the valleys of the porous medium, depending on the height of the undulations and on the direction of the Sun. At last a comparison of lysimeter measurement data to the numerical examples shows a good match for measured and calculated radiation values but evaporation rates are still overestimated in the model. Possible reasons for the discrepancy between measurement and model data are analyzed and are found to be uncertainties about the parameters close to the interface, which are decisive for determining evaporation rates.
    Description: Key Points: We demonstrate the influence of radiation on evaporation rates. The influence of surface undulations on radiation and evaporation is analyzed. Comparison with experimental data shows the importance of interface processes.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; fully coupled soil‐atmosphere model ; evaporation and radiation ; turbulence
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  • 7
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    Clouds, radiation, and atmospheric circulation in the present‐day climate and under climate change (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: By interacting with radiation, clouds modulate the flow of energy through the Earth system, the circulation of the atmosphere, and regional climate. We review the impact of cloud‐radiation interactions for the atmospheric circulation in the present‐day climate, its internal variability and its response to climate change. After summarizing cloud‐controlling factors and cloud‐radiative effects, we clarify the scope and limits of the Clouds On‐Off Klimate Model Intercomparison Experiment (COOKIE) and cloud‐locking modeling methods. COOKIE showed that the presence of cloud‐radiative effects shapes the circulation in the present‐day climate in many important ways, including the width of the tropical rain belts and the position of the extratropical storm tracks. Cloud locking, in contrast, identified how clouds affect internal variability and the circulation response to global warming. This includes strong, but model‐dependent, shortwave and longwave cloud impacts on the El‐Nino Southern Oscillation, and the finding that most of the poleward circulation expansion in response to global warming can be attributed to radiative changes in clouds. We highlight the circulation impact of shortwave changes from low‐level clouds and longwave changes from rising high‐level clouds, and the contribution of these cloud changes to model differences in the circulation response to global warming. The review in particular draws attention to the role of cloud‐radiative heating within the atmosphere. We close by raising some open questions which, among others, concern the need for studying the cloud impact on regional scales and opportunities created by the next generation of global storm‐resolving models. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling 〉 Knowledge Generation with Models
    Description: Clouds interact with radiation. We review the role of cloud‐radiation interactions in shaping the atmospheric circulation and thus regional climate and climate change. Figure from Blue Marble Collection of NASA Visible Earth.
    Description: U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research
    Description: U.S. National Science Foundation
    Description: NERC CIRCULATES project
    Description: FONA: Research for Sustainable Development
    Description: German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: 551.5 ; circulation ; climate and climate change ; clouds ; global models ; radiation
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  • 8
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    Impact of Volcanic Aerosols on the Hydrology of the Asian Monsoon and Westerlies‐Dominated Subregions: Comparison of Proxy and Multimodel Ensemble Means (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: Proxy‐model comparisons show large discrepancies in the impact of volcanic aerosols on the hydrology of the Asian monsoon region (AMR). This was mostly imputed to uncertainties arising from the use of a single model in previous studies. Here we compare two groups of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM) with the tree‐ring‐based reconstruction Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA PDSI), to examine their reliability in reproducing the hydrological effects of the volcanic eruptions in 1300–1850 CE. Time series plots indicate that the MADA PDSI and the MMEMs agree on the significant drying effect of volcanic perturbation over the monsoon‐dominated subregion, while disparities exist over the westerlies‐dominated subregion. Comparisons of the spatial patterns suggest that the MADA PDSI and the MMEMs show better agreement 1 year after the volcanic eruption than in the eruption year and in subregions where more tree‐ring chronologies are available. The MADA PDSI and the CMIP5 MMEMs agree on the drying effect of volcanic eruptions in western‐East Asia, South Asian summer monsoon, and northern East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) regions. Model results suggest significant wetting effect in southern EASM and western‐South Asia, which agrees with the observed hydrological response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption. Analysis on model output from the Last Millennium Ensemble project shows similar hydrological responses. These results suggest that the CMIP5 MMEM is able to reproduce the impact of volcanic eruptions on the hydrology of the southern AMR.
    Description: Key Points: Proxy and multimodel ensemble means agree (disagree) on post volcanic hydro‐responses over the Asian monsoon (westerlies)‐dominated subregion. Better agreement of spatial hydrological patterns is suggested 1 year after the eruption and in subregions with more tree‐ring data. Multimodel ensemble means can reproduce the hydrological response to volcanic perturbations in the southern Asian monsoon region.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; volcanic aerosol ; monsoon‐dominated subregion ; westerlies‐dominated subregion ; proxy data ; multimodel ensemble mean ; hydrological index
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  • 9
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    Machine Learning‐Based Prediction of Spatiotemporal Uncertainties in Global Wind Velocity Reanalyses (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: The characterization of uncertainties in geophysical quantities is an important task with widespread applications for time series prediction, numerical modeling, and data assimilation. In this context, machine learning is a powerful tool for estimating complex patterns and their evolution through time. Here, we utilize a supervised machine learning approach to dynamically predict the spatiotemporal uncertainty of near‐surface wind velocities over the ocean. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is trained with reanalyzed 10 m wind velocities and corresponding precalculated uncertainty estimates during the 2012–2016 time period. Afterward, the neural network's performance is examined by analyzing its prediction for the subsequent year 2017. Our experiments show that a recurrent neural network can capture the globally prevalent wind regimes without prior knowledge about underlying physics and learn to derive wind velocity uncertainty estimates that are only based on wind velocity trajectories. At single training locations, the RNN‐based wind uncertainties closely match with the true reference values, and the corresponding intra‐annual variations are reproduced with high accuracy. Moreover, the neural network can predict global lateral distribution of uncertainties with small mismatch values after being trained only at a few isolated locations in different dynamic regimes. The presented approach can be combined with numerical models for a cost‐efficient generation of ensemble simulations or with ensemble‐based data assimilation to sample and predict dynamically consistent error covariance information of atmospheric boundary forcings.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Machine learning is increasingly used for a wide range of applications in geosciences. In this study, we use an artificial neural network in the context of time series prediction. In particular, the goal is to use a neural network for learning spatial and temporal uncertainties that are associated with globally estimated wind velocities. Three well‐known wind velocity products are used for the time period 2012–2016 in different training, validation, and prediction scenarios. Our experiments show that a neural network can learn the prevailing global wind regimes and associate these with corresponding uncertainty estimates. Such a trained neural network can be used for different applications, for example, a cost‐efficient generation of ensemble simulations or for improving traditional data assimilation schemes.
    Description: Key Points: A recurrent neural network is set up to predict spatiotemporal uncertainties in wind velocity reanalyses. Global uncertainty maps can be derived from only few individual training locations. This method has benefits for time series prediction, ensemble simulations, and data assimilation.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; machine learning ; artificial neural network ; wind velocity ; atmospheric reanalysis ; ensemble simulation ; data assimilation
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  • 10
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    Probabilistic Models Significantly Reduce Uncertainty in Hurricane Harvey Pluvial Flood Loss Estimates (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-22
    Description: Pluvial flood risk is mostly excluded in urban flood risk assessment. However, the risk of pluvial flooding is a growing challenge with a projected increase of extreme rainstorms compounding with an ongoing global urbanization. Considered as a flood type with minimal impacts when rainfall rates exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, the aftermath of rainfall‐triggered flooding during Hurricane Harvey and other events show the urgent need to assess the risk of pluvial flooding. Due to the local extent and small‐scale variations, the quantification of pluvial flood risk requires risk assessments on high spatial resolutions. While flood hazard and exposure information is becoming increasingly accurate, the estimation of losses is still a poorly understood component of pluvial flood risk quantification. We use a new probabilistic multivariable modeling approach to estimate pluvial flood losses of individual buildings, explicitly accounting for the associated uncertainties. Except for the water depth as the common most important predictor, we identified the drivers for having loss or not and for the degree of loss to be different. Applying this approach to estimate and validate building structure losses during Hurricane Harvey using a property level data set, we find that the reliability and dispersion of predictive loss distributions vary widely depending on the model and aggregation level of property level loss estimates. Our results show that the use of multivariable zero‐inflated beta models reduce the 90% prediction intervalsfor Hurricane Harvey building structure loss estimates on average by 78% (totalling U.S.$3.8 billion) compared to commonly used models.
    Description: Key Points Recent severe pluvial flood events highlight the need to integrate pluvial flooding in urban flood risk assessment Probabilistic models provide reliable estimation of pluvial flood loss across spatial scales Beta distribution model reduces the 90% prediction interval for Hurricane Harvey building loss by U.S.$3.8 billion or 78%
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: NSF GRFP
    Description: Fulbright Doctoral Program
    Keywords: 551.5 ; pluvial flooding ; loss modeling ; urban flooding ; probabilistic ; Hurricane Harvey ; climate change adaptation
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  • 11
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    Multistatic Specular Meteor Radar Network in Peru: System Description and Initial Results (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: The mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region is dominated globally by dynamics at various scales: planetary waves, tides, gravity waves, and stratified turbulence. The latter two can coexist and be significant at horizontal scales less than 500 km, scales that are difficult to measure. This study presents a recently deployed multistatic specular meteor radar system, SIMONe Peru, which can be used to observe these scales. The radars are positioned at and around the Jicamarca Radio Observatory, which is located at the magnetic equator. Besides presenting preliminary results of typically reported large‐scale features, like the dominant diurnal tide at low latitudes, we show results on selected days of spatially and temporally resolved winds obtained with two methods based on: (a) estimation of mean wind and their gradients (gradient method), and (b) an inverse theory with Tikhonov regularization (regularized wind field inversion method). The gradient method allows improved MLT vertical velocities and, for the first time, low‐latitude wind field parameters such as horizontal divergence and relative vorticity. The regularized wind field inversion method allows the estimation of spatial structure within the observed area and has the potential to outperform the gradient method, in particular when more detections are available or when fine adaptive tuning of the regularization factor is done. SIMONe Peru adds important information at low latitudes to currently scarce MLT continuous observing capabilities. Results contribute to studies of the MLT dynamics at different scales inherently connected to lower atmospheric forcing and E‐region dynamo related ionospheric variability.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region is dominated by neutral wind dynamics with structure scales ranging from a few thousands of kilometers down to a few kilometers. In this work, we present a new state‐of‐the‐art ground‐based radar system using multistatic meteor scattering that allows tomographic studies of MLT wind dynamics at scales not possible before. Given the location of the radar network at the magnetic equator, its focus is on wind dynamics peculiar to equatorial latitudes. Two methods for estimating the mesospheric neutral wind field are used. One takes into account wind gradients in addition to mean wind (gradient method). The other estimates a spatially resolved wind vector field and uses an additional mathematical constraint that produces smooth wind field solutions (regularized wind field inversion method). Using the gradient method, the vertical wind estimate is improved. For the first time at MLT equatorial latitudes, parameters familiar to meteorologists, such as horizontal divergence and relative vorticity are obtained. Measurements from this new system have the potential to contribute to coupling studies of the atmosphere and the ionosphere at low latitudes.
    Description: Key Points: Measurements of horizontal wind gradients at low‐latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere altitudes. These gradients of the horizontal winds show strong temporal and altitude variability that are not observed at high latitudes. Improved vertical winds are obtained using a gradient wind field method inherently free from horizontal divergence contamination.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: NSF, Directorate for Geosciences (GEO) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000085
    Keywords: 551.5 ; low latitude mesosphere ; MLT dynamics ; MLT horizontal divergence ; MLT vorticity ; multistatic radar observations ; vertical velocity
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  • 12
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    A cold pool perturbation scheme to improve convective initiation in convection‐permitting models (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-20
    Description: Cold pools originate from evaporation in precipitating downdraughts and spread as density currents at the surface. Vertical motion at the leading edge of the cold pool is an important trigger for new convective cells in organised convective storms. However, these motions are poorly resolved at the grid lengths of a kilometre or more used in convection‐permitting models. Consequently, the simulated gust fronts do not trigger enough new convection, leading to precipitation deficits and a lack of convective organization. To address these deficits, we introduce a cold pool perturbation (CPP) scheme that strengthens vertical velocity at the simulated cold pool gust fronts. This is achieved by relaxing the vertical velocity in the gust front region towards a target value derived from similarity theory. Applying the CPP scheme for simulations of a highly convective 10‐day period, we find increased precipitation amplitudes during the afternoon. There is also evidence for improvements in the location of precipitation and for stronger organization of convection, although substantial errors remain. The cold pools themselves become more frequent, larger and more intense. An additional potentially beneficial influence was found for convective initiation at sea breeze fronts.
    Description: We develop a cold pool perturbation scheme which strengthens the too weak vertical velocities at cold pool gust fronts in convection‐permitting models. In so doing, cold‐pool‐driven convective initiation is enhanced and simulated precipitation improved.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cold pools ; convective organization ; deep convection ; density currents ; gust fronts
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  • 13
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    Numerical impacts on tracer transport: A proposed intercomparison test of Atmospheric General Circulation Models (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-20
    Description: The transport of trace gases by the atmospheric circulation plays an important role in the climate system and its response to external forcing. Transport presents a challenge for Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs), as errors in both the resolved circulation and the numerical representation of transport processes can bias their abundance. In this study, two tests are proposed to assess transport by the dynamical core of an AGCM. To separate transport from chemistry, the tests focus on the age‐of‐air, an estimate of the mean transport time by the circulation. The tests assess the coupled stratosphere–troposphere system, focusing on transport by the overturning circulation and isentropic mixing in the stratosphere, or Brewer–Dobson Circulation, where transport time‐scales on the order of months to years provide a challenging test of model numerics. Four dynamical cores employing different numerical schemes (finite‐volume, pseudo‐spectral, and spectral‐element) and discretizations (cubed sphere versus latitude–longitude) are compared across a range of resolutions. The subtle momentum balance of the tropical stratosphere is sensitive to model numerics, and the first intercomparison reveals stark differences in tropical stratospheric winds, particularly at high vertical resolution: some cores develop westerly jets and others easterly jets. This leads to substantial spread in transport, biasing the age‐of‐air by up to 25% relative to its climatological mean, making it difficult to assess the impact of the numerical representation of transport processes. This uncertainty is removed by constraining the tropical winds in the second intercomparison test, in a manner akin to specifying the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in an AGCM. The dynamical cores exhibit qualitative agreement on the structure of atmospheric transport in the second test, with evidence of convergence as the horizontal and vertical resolution is increased in a given model. Significant quantitative differences remain, however, particularly between models employing spectral versus finite‐volume numerics, even in state‐of‐the‐art cores.
    Description: The climatological and zonal mean zonal wind ū (m·s−1), as simulated by two different dynamical cores, (left) pseudospectral (GFDL‐PS) and (right) finite‐volume (CAM‐FV), with (top) 40 vertical levels and (bottom) 80 vertical levels. With higher vertical resolution, the pseudospectral core develops westerlies in the tropical stratosphere between 20 and 80 hPa, while the finite‐volume core consistently simulates easterlies at both vertical resolutions. Both cores have comparable horizontal resolution. The contour interval is 10 m·s−1.
    Description: US National Science Foundation
    Keywords: 551.5 ; age of air ; Brewer–Dobson circulation ; dynamical cores ; stratospheric dynamics ; tracer transport.
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  • 14
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    Growth response of calcifying marine epibionts to biogenic pH fluctuations and global ocean acidification scenarios (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-27
    Description: In coastal marine environments, physical and biological forces can cause dynamic pH fluctuations from microscale (diffusive boundary layer [DBL]) up to ecosystem‐scale (benthic boundary layer [BBL]). In the face of ocean acidification (OA), such natural pH variations may modulate an organism's response to OA by providing temporal refugia. We investigated the effect of pH fluctuations, generated by the brown alga Fucus serratus' biological activity, on the calcifying epibionts Balanus improvisus and Electra pilosa under OA. For this, both epibionts were grown on inactive and biologically active surfaces and exposed to (1) constant pH scenarios under ambient (pH 8.1) or OA conditions (pH 7.7), or (2) oscillating pH scenarios mimicking BBL conditions at ambient (pH 7.7–8.6) or OA scenarios (pH 7.4–8.2). Furthermore, all treatment combinations were tested at 10°C and 15°C. Against our expectations, OA treatments did not affect epibiont growth under constant or fluctuating (BBL) pH conditions, indicating rather high robustness against predicted OA scenarios. Furthermore, epibiont growth was hampered and not fostered on active surfaces (fluctuating DBL conditions), indicating that fluctuating pH conditions of the DBL with elevated daytime pH do not necessarily provide temporal refugia from OA. In contrast, results indicate that factors other than pH may play larger roles for epibiont growth on macrophytes (e.g., surface characteristics, macrophyte antifouling defense, or dynamics of oxygen and nutrient concentrations). Warming enhanced epibiont growth rates significantly, independently of OA, indicating no synergistic effects of pH treatments and temperature within their natural temperature range.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.46 ; coastal marine environments ; calcifying marine epibionts
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    Potential and Limitations of Machine Learning for Modeling Warm‐Rain Cloud Microphysical Processes (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: The use of machine learning based on neural networks for cloud microphysical parameterizations is investigated. As an example, we use the warm‐rain formation by collision‐coalescence, that is, the parameterization of autoconversion, accretion, and self‐collection of droplets in a two‐moment framework. Benchmark solutions of the kinetic collection equations are performed using a Monte Carlo superdroplet algorithm. The superdroplet method provides reliable but noisy estimates of the warm‐rain process rates. For each process rate, a neural network is trained using standard machine learning techniques. The resulting models make skillful predictions for the process rates when compared to the testing data. However, when solving the ordinary differential equations, the solutions are not as good as those of an established warm‐rain parameterization. This deficiency can be seen as a limitation of the machine learning methods that are applied, but at the same time, it points toward a fundamental ill‐posedness of the commonly used two‐moment warm‐rain schemes. More advanced machine learning methods that include a notion of time derivatives, therefore, have the potential to overcome these problems.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In our work, we are trying to teach a computer how rain forms in clouds. We show that computer hundreds of cases in the form of data. To be honest, the data are not real data but only results of simulations with a more complicated computer model. This complicated model can track the collisions of 10,000 of droplets, and we save all that data about the growth of the droplets into larger raindrops. This is what we then give to the simpler computer model to teach it something about clouds and rain. Afterward, it can make pretty good predictions about which clouds will rain and how long it will take them to produce the first rain. Unfortunately, the current machine learning methods are still a bit stupid because they only learn from the data but do not understand the mathematics and the physics behind the data. Therefore, the new computer model is still not as good at predicting rain as some clever mathematical formulas that were developed 20 years ago. Maybe we first have to teach the computer model more about calculus before it can learn to predict rain.
    Description: Key Points: Machine learning is successfully applied to the warm‐rain parameterization problem. Training and testing data for the warm‐rain kinetic collection equation are provided using the superdroplet method. Standard training methods show some limitations for the resulting ODE system.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cloud physics ; machine learning ; autoconversion ; warm‐rain parameterization
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    Quasi‐10‐Day Wave and Semidiurnal Tide Nonlinear Interactions During the Southern Hemispheric SSW 2019 Observed in the Northern Hemispheric Mesosphere (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: Mesospheric winds from three longitudinal sectors at 65°N and 54°N latitude are combined to diagnose the zonal wave numbers (m) of spectral wave signatures during the Southern Hemisphere sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) 2019. Diagnosed are quasi‐10‐ and 6‐day planetary waves (Q10DW and Q6DW, m = 1), solar semidiurnal tides with m = 1, 2, 3 (SW1, SW2, and SW3), lunar semidiurnal tide, and the upper and lower sidebands (USB and LSB, m = 1 and 3) of Q10DW‐SW2 nonlinear interactions. We further present 7‐year composite analyses to distinguish SSW effects from climatological features. Before (after) the SSW onset, LSB (USB) enhances, accompanied by the enhancing (fading) Q10DW, and a weakening of climatological SW2 maximum. These behaviors are explained in terms of Manley‐Rowe relation, that is, the energy goes first from SW2 to Q10DW and LSB, and then from SW2 and Q10DW to USB. Our results illustrate that the interactions can explain most wind variabilities associated with the SSW.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Sudden stratospheric warming events occur typically over the winter Arctic and are well known for being accompanied by various tides and Rossby waves. A rare SSW occurred in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Here, we combine mesospheric observations from the Northern Hemisphere to study the wave activities before and during the warming event. A dual‐station approach is implemented on high‐frequency‐resolved spectral peaks to diagnose the horizontal scales of the dominant waves. Diagnosed are multiple tidal components, multiple Rossby normal modes, and two secondary waves arising from nonlinear interactions between a tide component and a Rossby wave. Most of these waves do not occur in a climatological sense and occur around the warming onset. Furthermore, the evolution of these waves can be explained using theoretical energy arguments.
    Description: Key Points: Mesospheric winds from multiple longitudes in the NH are combined to diagnose zonal wave numbers of waves during the Antarctic SSW 2019. Diagnosed are Q6DW, Q10DW, M2, SW1, SW2, SW3, and LSB and USB of Q10DW‐SW2 nonlinear interactions. LSB and USB are generated asynchronously, during which their parent waves evolve following the Manley‐Rowe energy relations.
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
    Description: National Science Foundation (NSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Description: German Research Foundation (DFG)
    Keywords: 551.5 ; sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) ; semidiurnal tides ; nonlinear interactions ; quasi‐10‐day wave ; quasi‐6‐day wave ; Manley‐Rowe relation
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    Statistical Forecasts for the Occurrence of Precipitation Outperform Global Models over Northern Tropical Africa (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: Short‐term global ensemble predictions of rainfall currently have no skill over northern tropical Africa when compared to simple climatology‐based forecasts, even after sophisticated statistical postprocessing. Here, we demonstrate that 1‐day statistical forecasts for the probability of precipitation occurrence based on a simple logistic regression model have considerable potential for improvement. The new approach we present here relies on gridded rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission for July‐September 1998–2017 and uses rainfall amounts from the pixels that show the highest positive and negative correlations on the previous two days as input. Forecasts using this model are reliable and have a higher resolution and better skill than climatology‐based forecasts. The good performance is related to westward propagating African easterly waves and embedded mesoscale convective systems. The statistical model is outmatched by the postprocessed dynamical forecast in the dry outer tropics only, where extratropical influences are important.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Forecasts of precipitation for the next few days based on state‐of‐the‐art weather models are currently inaccurate over northern tropical Africa, even after systematic forecast errors are corrected statistically. In this paper, we show that we can use rainfall observations from the previous 2 days to improve 1‐day predictions of precipitation occurrence. Such an approach works well over this region, as rainfall systems tend to travel from the east to the west organized by flow patterns several kilometers above the ground, called African easterly waves. This statistical forecast model requires training over a longer time period (here 19 years) to establish robust relationships on which future predictions can be based. The input data employed are gridded rainfall estimates based on satellite data for the African summer monsoon in July to September. The new method outperforms all other methods currently available on a day‐to‐day basis over the region, except for the dry outer tropics, where influences from midlatitudes, which are better captured by weather models, become more important.
    Description: Key Points: Raw and statistically postprocessed global ensemble forecasts fail to predict West African rainfall occurrence. A logistic regression model using observations from preceding days outperforms all other types of forecasts. The skill of the statistical model is mainly related to propagating African easterly waves and mesoscale convective systems.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
    Description: Klaus Tschira Stiftung
    Keywords: 551.5 ; forecasting ; logistic regression ; postprocessing ; precipitation ; tropical convection ; West Africa
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    WRF‐based dynamical downscaling of ERA5 reanalysis data for High Mountain Asia: Towards a new version of the High Asia Refined analysis (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: The High Asia Refined analysis (HAR) is a regional atmospheric data set generated by dynamical downscaling of the Final operational global analysis (FNL) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It has been successfully and widely utilized. A new version (HAR v2) with longer temporal coverage and extended domains is currently under development. ERA5 reanalysis data is used as forcing data. This study aims to find the optimal set‐up for the production of the HAR v2 to provide similar or even better accuracy as the HAR. First, we conducted a sensitivity study, in which different cumulus, microphysics, planetary boundary layer, and land surface model schemes were compared and validated against in situ observations. The technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was applied to identify the best schemes. Snow depth in ERA5 is overestimated in High Mountain Asia (HMA) and causes a cold bias in the WRF output. Therefore, we used Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) to correct snow depth initialized from ERA5 based on the linear scaling approach. After applying the best schemes identified by the TOPSIS method and correcting the initial snow depth, the model performance improves. Finally, we applied the improved set‐up for the HAR v2 and computed a one‐year run for 2011. Compared to the HAR, the HAR v2 has a better representation of air temperature at 2 m. It produces slightly higher precipitation amounts, but the spatial distribution of seasonal mean precipitation is closer to observations.
    Description: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cold bias ; dynamical downscaling ; ERA5 ; HAR ; High Mountain Asia ; snow depth ; WRF
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    Modelling and parametrization of the convective flow over leads in sea ice and comparison with airborne observations (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-20
    Description: A non‐eddy‐resolving microscale model is applied to simulate convection over three different leads (elongated channels in sea ice), which were observed by aircraft over the Arctic Marginal Ice Zone in 2013. The study aims to evaluate the quality of a local and a non‐local turbulence parametrization. The latter represents a lead‐width‐dependent approach for the turbulent fluxes designed for idealised conditions of a lead‐perpendicular, near‐neutral inflow in an atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) capped by a strong inversion at around 250 to 350 m height. The observed cases considered here are also characterised by an almost lead‐perpendicular flow but, in comparison to the idealised conditions, our analysis covers effects in stable inflow conditions and a much shallower ABL. The model simulations are initialised with observed surface parameters and upwind profiles, and the results are compared with measurements obtained above and downwind of the leads. The basic observed features related to the lead‐generated convection can be reproduced with both closures, but the observed plume inclination and vertical entrainment near the inversion layer by the penetrating plume are underestimated. The advantage of the non‐local closure becomes obvious by the more realistic representation of regions with observed vertical entrainment or where the observations hint at counter‐gradient transport. It is shown by comparison with the observations that results obtained with the non‐local closure can be further improved by including the determination of a fetch‐dependent inversion height and by specifying a parameter determining the plume inclination as a function of the upwind ABL stratification. Both effects improve the representation of fluxes, boundary‐layer warming, and vertical entrainment. The model is also able to reproduce the observed vanishing of a weak low‐level jet over the lead, but its downwind regeneration and related momentum transport are not always well captured, irrespective of the closure used.
    Description: In typical springtime conditions of a cold atmospheric flow over the warm surfaces of leads, which are open‐water channels in sea ice, strong convective plumes are generated which have a large impact on atmospheric boundary‐layer characteristics. Here, a small‐scale model is applied to simulate such situations and model results obtained with different turbulence parametrizations are evaluated using airborne measurements. Based on the observations, a non‐local parametrization developed for the small‐scale modelling of the inhomogeneous convection over leads is further improved.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) via the Transregional Collaborative Research Center ArctiC Amplification (AC)3 (project number 268020496 TRR 172) and via the priority program SPP 1158 (grant LU 818/5‐1)
    Keywords: 551.5 ; aircraft observations ; atmospheric boundary layer ; convection over leads ; counter‐gradient transport ; entrainment ; microscale model ; sea ice ; turbulence parametrization
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    Growth and Decay of Northwestern Tropical Atlantic Barrier Layers (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: The growth and decay mechanisms of barrier layers in the northwestern tropical Atlantic are studied by investigating small‐scale processes embedded in the regional circulation of the tropical Atlantic using output from an eddy‐resolving numerical simulation at 4 km resolution forced by an atmospheric reanalysis. The simulation reproduces well the temporal and spatial patterns of barrier layer thickness (BLT) estimated with Argo and CTD in situ profiles. As seen from an analysis of the salinity and temperature vertical gradient balances, localized large barrier layers form inside North Brazil Current rings during late‐June to July because of a thickening of the isothermal layer in the rings due to horizontal temperature advection, stretching of isotherms and tilting of temperature fronts. These barrier layers decay when the isothermal layer reduces again due to the above mechanisms. Further to the north, along the North Equatorial Current, the seasonal variability of BLT is highly pronounced. Thick winter (January to early March) barrier layers locally grow as the base of the mixed layer shoals mainly due to a tilting of the salinity fronts and partly due to stretching of the isohalines, horizontal salt advection and vertical turbulent mixing. The short‐term barrier layers in this case decay due to a deepening of the mixed layer, whereas they get completely eroded in spring by a shoaling of the isothermal layer due to surface temperature stratification. This work highlights that barrier layers are localized phenomena at times growing solely due to ocean dynamics, without a surface freshwater influx.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Oceanic barrier layers exist in regions where salinity is more dominant than temperature in determining upper ocean density. Those layers lie between the bases of a constant‐density layer and a constant‐temperature layer. Barrier layers prevent vertical exchange of energy and mass between the near‐surface and the deep ocean, thus influencing air‐sea interaction. In the western tropical Atlantic, a warmer sea surface due to the presence of barrier layers can fuel hurricanes. Freshwater from the Amazon River and rainfall facilitate the growth of barrier layers, but the dynamics of their evolution are unclear. In this work, we identify/quantify the growth and decay mechanisms of barrier layers using a 4 km resolution simulation. Barrier layers grow/decay inside North Brazil Current eddies in summer because of deepening/shoaling of the constant‐temperature layer inside the eddies due to horizontal heat transport. Further north, barrier layers grow in winter as the constant‐density layer shoals mainly due to northwestward surface freshwater flow and equatorward subsurface salty water flow. Those barrier layers decay when the constant‐density layer deepens, whereas are destroyed when the constant‐temperature layer shoals in spring due to surface heating. These novel results improve the knowledge on barrier layers and help representing them in climate models.
    Description: Key Points: The North Brazil and North Equatorial Currents are two regions with quasi‐permanent barrier layers in the northwestern tropical Atlantic Large barrier layer thickness (BLT) within the rings occurs during June‐July due to a thickening of the isothermal layer within the eddies Large winter BLT in North Equatorial Current is due to tilting of salinity fronts, stretching of isohalines, advection and turbulent mixing
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.46 ; northwestern tropical Atlantic ; barrier layers
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    The Impact of Solar Activity on Forecasting the Upper Atmosphere via Assimilation of Electron Density Data (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: This study presents a comprehensive comparison of the impact of solar activity on forecasting the upper atmosphere through assimilation of radio occultation (RO)‐derived electron density (Ne) into a physics‐based model (TIE‐GCM) using an ensemble Kalman filter (KF). Globally abundant RO‐derived Ne offers one of the most promising means to test the effect of assimilation on the model forecasted state on a global scale. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding how the assimilation results vary with solar activity, which is one of the main drivers of thermosphere‐ionosphere dynamics. This study validates the forecast states with independent RO‐derived GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission) Ne data. The principal result of the study is that the agreement between forecast Ne and data is better during solar minimum than solar maximum. The results also show that the agreement between data and forecast is mostly better than that of the standalone TIE‐GCM driven with observed geophysical indices. The results emphasize that TIE‐GCM significantly underestimate Ne in altitudes below 250 km and the assimilation of Ne is not as effective in these lower altitudes as it is in higher altitudes. The results demonstrate that assimilation of Ne significantly impacts the neutral mass density estimates via the KF state vector—the impact is larger during solar maximum than solar minimum relative to a control case that does not assimilate Ne. The results are useful to explain the inherent model bias, to understand the limitations of the data, and to demonstrate the capability of the assimilation technique.
    Description: Key Points: Investigates the impact of solar activity on forecasting through assimilation of COSMIC‐Ne into a physics‐based upper atmosphere model. The agreement between hourly forecasted Ne and data is better during solar minimum than solar maximum. The assimilation of COSMIC‐Ne into TIE‐GCM significantly influences the neutral dynamics of the thermosphere.
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
    Description: National Science Foundation (NSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Keywords: 551.5 ; COSMIC ; data assimilation ; ensemble Kalman filter ; ionosphere forecasts ; neutral mass density forecasts ; TIE‐GCM ; upper atmosphere ; impact of solar activity ; thermosphere-ionosphere dynamics
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    Coupling of the Subpolar Gyre and the Overturning Circulation During Abrupt Glacial Climate Transitions (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: We present a mechanism for self‐sustained ocean circulation changes that cause abrupt temperature changes over Greenland in a multimillennial climate model simulation with glacial CO2 concentrations representative of Marine Isotope Stage 3. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre (SPG) oscillate on millennial time scales. When the AMOC is strong, the SPG is weak and contracted; when the AMOC is weak, the SPG is strong and extensive. The coupling between the two systems via wind‐driven and density‐driven feedbacks is key to maintaining the oscillations. The SPG controls the transport of heat and salt into the deep‐water formation sites and thus controls the AMOC strength. The strength and location of the deep‐water formation affect the density‐driven part of the SPG and thus control the mean strength and extent of the SPG. This mechanism supports the hypothesis that coupled ocean‐ice‐atmosphere interactions could have triggered abrupt glacial climate change.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Between 57.000 and 29.000 years ago, the last glacial period was marked by several abrupt warming and cooling events over Greenland and the North Atlantic. Understanding the mechanism behind these so‐called Dansgaard‐Oeschger events increases our understanding of possible tipping points that cause abrupt change in the Earth system. The role of the ocean in causing these events is still a topic of debate. We find abrupt changes in the North Atlantic circulation that resemble Dansgaard‐Oeschger events in a simulation with a state‐of‐the‐art climate model. These simulated ocean circulation changes are generated without adding external triggers such as meltwater from glaciers. Instead, the events are generated by the interaction of the two large‐scale current systems in the North Atlantic—the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). Both current systems are affected by changes in surface winds and the density pattern of the North Atlantic. We find that the location where the densest water is formed controls how the SPG interacts with the AMOC. Under favorable conditions, the effects of wind and density combine in such a way that changes in the SPG cause abrupt changes in the AMOC.
    Description: Key Points: Millennial‐scale, self‐sustained oscillations of the ocean circulation occur in a climate model simulation. The oscillations are driven by the interaction between the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre (SPG). The AMOC‐SPG coupling is controlled by a wind‐driven and a density‐driven feedback; the coupling sign depends on the dominant feedback.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; AMOC ; subpolar gyre ; abrupt climate change ; climate modeling ; Marine Isotope Stage 3
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    Linking Large‐Eddy Simulations to Local Cloud Observations (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: In order to enhance our understanding of clouds and their microphysical processes, it is crucial to exploit both observations and models. Local observations from ground‐based remote sensing sites provide detailed information on clouds, but as they are limited in dimension, there is no straightforward way to use them to guide large‐scale model development. We show that large‐eddy simulations (LES) performed on similar temporal and spatial scales as the local observations can bridge this gap. Recently, LES with realistic topography and lateral boundary conditions became feasible for domains spanning several 100 km. In this study, we show how these simulations can be linked to observations of the Jülich Observatory for Cloud Evolution (JOYCE) for a 9‐day period in spring 2013. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of very large versus small but more constrained domains as well as the differences compared to more idealized setups. The semi‐idealized LES include time‐varying forcing but are run with homogeneous surfaces and periodic boundary conditions. These assumptions seem to be the reason why they struggle to represent the observed varying conditions. The simulations using the “realistic” setup are able to represent the general cloud structure (timing, height, phase). It seems that the smaller and more constrained domain allows for a tighter control on the synoptic situation and is the preferred choice to ensure the comparability to the local observations. These simulations together with measures as the shown Hellinger distance will allow us to gain more insights into the representativeness of column measurements in the future.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Clouds are still a cause for uncertainty in our understanding of climate and climate feedbacks. Due to the large range of involved scales—from small droplets up to storm systems—their representation in weather and climate models is an ongoing challenge. While new and sophisticated measurements of the atmospheric column could provide new insights into important processes, their linking to models is not trivial and is ongoing research. In this study, we are presenting and exploring different approaches to combine local observations of clouds with state‐of‐the‐art high‐resolution simulations. And we are presenting a setup, which shows a promising representation of the observed clouds and is constrained enough to be applicable for long‐term statistics—one of the key requirements for improvements and evaluation clouds in of weather and climate models.
    Description: Key Points: Large‐eddy simulations including external variability can bridge the gap between ground‐based observations of clouds and large‐scale models. For comparison with local observations, it is important to take external variability (e.g., large‐scale forcing and surface) into account. ICON‐LEM offers new possibilities to simulate small scales while considering external variability.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; clouds ; heterogeneity ; ICON‐LEM ; large‐scale forcing ; LES ; remote sensing
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    Unusual appearance of mother‐of‐pearl clouds above El Calafate, Argentina (50°21′S, 72°16′W) (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-29
    Description: Visual observations from the ground and from a glider soaring in the lowermost stratosphere revealed the existence of stratospheric mother‐of‐pearl clouds above El Calafate in the lee of the Andes on 11 September 2019. The appearance of these clouds is rather unusual considering the time – end of the austral winter – and the location at about 50°S, being far away from Antarctica. This paper presents the available observations and describes the overall meteorological situation that was related to the earliest sudden stratospheric warming recorded so far in the Southern Hemisphere. By using high‐resolution numerical simulations, we show evidence of mountain waves propagating up to the stratosphere that are responsible for generating the localised cold stratospheric temperature anomalies required for ice cloud formation. Snapshots of a mother‐of‐pearl cloud from the camera installed at the PERLAN 2 aircraft's tail wing. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Argentina ; ice cloud formation
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    Comparison of environmental tracers including organic micropollutants as groundwater exfiltration indicators into a small river of a karstic catchment (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-27
    Description: Understanding groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interactions is vital for water management in karstic catchments due to its impact on water quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the applicability of seven environmental tracers to quantify and localize groundwater exfiltration into a small, human‐impacted karstic river system. Tracers were selected based on their emission source to the surface water either as (a) dissolved, predominantly geogenic compounds (radon‐222, sulphate and electrical conductivity) or (b) anthropogenic compounds (predominantly) originating from wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluents (carbamazepine, tramadol, sodium, chloride). Two contrasting sampling approaches were compared (a) assuming steady‐state flow conditions and (b) considering the travel time of the water parcels (Lagrangian sampling) through the catchment to account for diurnal changes in inflow from the WWTP. Spatial variability of the concentrations of all tracers indicated sections of preferential groundwater inflow. Lagrangian sampling techniques seem highly relevant for capturing dynamic concentration patterns of WWTP‐derived compounds. Quantification of GW inflow with the finite element model FINIFLUX, based on observed in‐stream Rn activities led to plausible fluxes along the investigated river reaches (0.265 m3 s−1), while observations of other natural or anthropogenic environmental tracers produced less plausible water fluxes. Important point sources of groundwater exfiltration can be ascribed to locations where the river crosses geological fault lines. This indicates that commonly applied concepts describing groundwater–surface water interactions assuming diffuse flow in porous media are difficult to transfer to karstic river systems whereas concepts from fractured aquifers may be more applicable. In general, this study helps selecting the best suited hydrological tracer for GW exfiltration and leads to a better understanding of processes controlling groundwater inflow into karstic river systems.
    Description: Karst aquifers represent an increased complexity when aiming to measure the interaction between groundwater and river water. Combining field‐based measurements on catchment scale and modelling, the applicability of ‘classical’ environmental groundwater tracers was compared to selected organic (micro)pollutants often considered as conservative and originally arising from a wastewater treatment plant. This study demonstrates that the choice of an appropriate tracer is crucial when either aiming to quantify groundwater exfiltration into karstic river systems, or indicating hydrological processes, applying (globally) omnipresent pollutants.
    Description: German Research Foundation (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.46 ; carbamazepine ; groundwater inflow ; Lagrangian sampling ; radon ; wastewater treatment plant ; water quality
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    Severe thunderstorms with large hail across Germany in June 2019 (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-21
    Description: From 10 to 12 June 2019, severe thunderstorms affected large parts of Germany. Hail larger than golf ball size caused considerable damage, especially in the Munich area where losses amount to EUR 1 billion. This event thus ranks among the ten most expensive hail events in Europe in the last 40 years. Atmospheric blocking in combination with a moist, unstably stratified air mass provided an excellent setting for the development of severe, hail‐producing thunderstorms across the country. image
    Description: German Research Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Germany ; thunderstorms ; hailstorm
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  • 27
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    Automatic plankton image classification—Can capsules and filters help cope with data set shift? (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-27
    Description: The general task of image classification seems to be solved due to the development of modern convolutional neural networks (CNNs). However, the high intraclass variability and interclass similarity of plankton images still prevents the practical identification of morphologically similar organisms. This prevails especially for rare organisms. Every CNN requires a vast amount of manually validated training images which renders it inefficient to train study‐specific classifiers. In most follow‐up studies, the plankton community is different from before and this data set shift (DSS) reduces the correct classification rates. A common solution is to discard all uncertain images and hope that the remains still resemble the true field situation. The intention of this North Sea Video Plankton Recorder (VPR) study is to assess if a combination of a Capsule Neural Network (CapsNet) with probability filters can improve the classification success in applications with DSS. Second, to provide a guideline how to customize automated CNN and CapsNet deep learning image analysis methods according to specific research objectives. In community analyses, our approach achieved a discard of uncertain predictions of only 5%. CapsNet and CNN reach similar precision scores, but the CapsNet has lower recall scores despite similar discard ratios. This is due to a higher discard ratio in rare classes. The recall advantage of the CNN decreases with increasing DSS. We present an alternative method to handle rare classes with a CNN achieving a mean recall of 96% by manually validating an average of 6.5% of the original images.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; North Sea ; plankton classification ; automated analyses
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    Long‐term intercomparison of two pCO2 instruments based on ship‐of‐opportunity measurements in a dynamic shelf sea environment (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-05
    Description: The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in surface seawater is an important biogeochemical variable because, together with the pCO2 in the atmosphere, it determines the direction of air–sea carbon dioxide exchange. Large‐scale observations of pCO2 are facilitated by Ships‐of‐Opportunity (SOOP‐CO2) equipped with underway measuring instruments. The need for expanding the observation capacity and the challenges involving the sustainability and maintenance of traditional equilibrator systems led the community toward developing simpler and more autonomous systems. Here we performed a comparison between a membrane‐based sensor and a showerhead equilibration sensor installed on two SOOP‐CO2 between 2013 and 2018. We identified time‐ and space‐adequate crossovers in the Skagerrak Strait, where the two ship routes often crossed. We found a mean total difference of 1.5 ± 10.6 μatm and a root mean square error of 11 μatm. The pCO2 values recorded by the two instruments showed a strong linear correlation with a coefficient of 0.91 and a slope of 1.07 (± 0.14), despite the dynamic nature of the environment and the difficulty of comparing measurements from two different vessels. The membrane‐based sensor was integrated with a FerryBox system on a ship with a high sampling frequency in the study area. We showed the strength of having a sensor‐based network with a high spatial coverage that can be validated against conventional SOOP‐CO2 methods. Proving the validity of membrane‐based sensors in coastal and continental shelf seas and using the higher frequency measurements they provide can enable a thorough characterization of pCO2 variability in these dynamic environments.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; surface seawater ; carbon dioxide ; partial pressure ; measurements
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    Increased Mixing and Turbulence in the Wake of Offshore Wind Farm Foundations (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: The addition of offshore wind farms (OWFs) to stratified regions of shelf seas poses an anthropogenic source of turbulence, in which the foundation structures remove power from the oceanic flow that is fed into turbulent mixing in the wake downstream. The loss of stratification within the wake of a single OWF structure is observed for the first time by means of field observations, which enable a qualitative characterization of the disturbed flow downstream. These results are complemented with high‐resolution large eddy simulations of four different stratification strengths that allow for a quantification of turbulence and mixing quantities in the wake of a foundation structure. The turbulent wake of a structure is narrow and highly energetic within the first 100 m, with the dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy well above background levels downstream of the structure. A single monopile is responsible for 7–10% additional mixing to that of the bottom mixed layer, whereby ∼10% of the turbulent kinetic energy generated by the structure is used in mixing. Although the effect of a single turbine on stratification is relatively low, large‐scale OWFs could significantly affect the vertical structure of a weakly stratified water column. Further, rough estimates show that the rate of formation of stratification in the study area is of the same order of magnitude as the additional mixing promoted by the structures, thus OWFs could modify the stratification regime and water column dynamics on a seasonal scale, depending on local conditions and farm geometries.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Advances in the renewable energy sector have enabled the construction and operation of wind farms in bodies of water deep enough to present vertical temperature differences across the water column or thermal stratification. In coastal regions dominated by tidal motion, the presence of offshore wind farm (OWF) structures brings about additional turbulence and mixing of stratification. The present study combines field measurements and numerical simulations to characterize the wake of single OWF structures and quantify the amount of turbulence and mixing generated by them. Our results suggest that the effect of OWF structures is small compared to other naturally occurring mixing mechanisms, however can be comparable to the rate of stratification buildup. Stratification in certain regions of shelf seas could be impacted by OWFs if these are built over a large area.
    Description: Key Points: Enhanced mixing and disturbed stratification in the wake of monopiles is traceable in field and turbulence‐resolving numerical experiments Elevated turbulent dissipation and mixing are found in a narrow region downstream of monopiles, with a bulk mixing efficiency of 8–14% The enhanced mixing generated by the offshore wind farm structures could contribute to significant changes in stratification in shelf seas
    Description: Helmholtz Foundation
    Keywords: 551.46 ; stratification ; mixing ; offshore wind farms ; monopiles ; mixing efficiency ; tidal shelf seas
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    Inherent Dissipation of Upwind‐Biased Potential Temperature Advection and its Feedback on Model Dynamics (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: Higher order upwind‐biased advection schemes are often used for potential temperature advection in dynamical cores of atmospheric models. The inherent diffusive and antidiffusive fluxes are interpreted here as the effect of irreversible sub‐gridscale dynamics. For those, total energy conservation and positive internal entropy production must be guaranteed. As a consequence of energy conservation, the pressure gradient term should be formulated in Exner pressure form. The presence of local antidiffusive fluxes in potential temperature advection schemes foils the validity of the second law of thermodynamics. Due to this failure, a spurious wind acceleration into the wrong direction is locally induced via the pressure gradient term. When correcting the advection scheme to be more entropically consistent, the spurious acceleration is avoided, but two side effects come to the fore: (i) the overall accuracy of the advection scheme decreases and (ii) the now purely diffusive fluxes become more discontinuous compared to the original ones, which leads to more sudden body forces in the momentum equation. Therefore, the amplitudes of excited gravity waves from jets and fronts increase compared to the original formulation with inherent local antidiffusive fluxes. The means used for supporting the argumentation line are theoretical arguments concerning total energy conservation and internal entropy production, pure advection tests, one‐dimensional advection‐dynamics interaction tests and evaluation of runs with a global atmospheric dry dynamical core.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: For ease of calculation, an alternative to using the internal energy equation is to consider the movement of an air parcel which maintains a constant value related to temperature and pressure (potential temperature). The pressure gradient converts the energy from internal to kinetic or vice versa, thereby influencing the direction and speed of wind. Hence, in the total energy conservation law, the pressure gradient force and the potential temperature transport equation are interdependent. Equations that simulate the movement the air parcels and its properties (advection equations) have been developed to provide accurate and consistent results. This article reviews whether contemporary advection methods for potential temperature are consistent. This means ensuring the underlying physical laws are met, in particular, the second law of thermodynamics, stating that field variables need to be diffused. However, most numerical advection methods can occasionally act in an antidiffusive way. The pressure inherits this antidiffusion from the potential temperature, if the density is held constant. Due to antidiffusion, the modeled wind direction may be incorrect. Avoiding antidiffusion prevents this effect, but leads to sudden pressure forces. These forces lead to higher gravity wave crests generated at the fronts of weather systems.
    Description: Key Points: The local antidiffusion within upwind potential temperature advection schemes leads to negative dissipation. This antidiffusion induces spurious accelerations in the wind field in one‐dimensional and full model runs. Entropically consistent schemes are less accurate and exhibit higher amplitudes of front‐generated gravity waves.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, TRR181 “Energy Transfers in Atmosphere and Ocean”, subproject M4
    Keywords: 551.5 ; energetic and entropic consistency ; excitation of gravity waves ; upwind advection schemes
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    Mesoscale marine tropical precipitation varies independently from the spatial arrangement of its convective cells (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-25
    Description: The relationship between mesoscale convective organization, quantified by the spatial arrangement of convection, and oceanic precipitation in the tropical belt is examined using the output of a global storm-resolving simulation. The analysis uses a 2D watershed segmentation algorithm based on local precipitation maxima to isolate individual precipitation cells and derive their properties. 10° by 10° scenes are analyzed using a phase-space representation made of the number of cells per scene and the mean area of the cells per scene to understand the controls on the spatial arrangement of convection and its precipitation. The presence of few and large cells in a scene indicates the presence of a more clustered distribution of cells, whereas many small cells in a scene tend to be randomly distributed. In general, the degree of clustering of a scene (Iorg) is positively correlated to the mean area of the cells and negatively correlated to the number of cells. Strikingly, the degree of clustering, whether the cells are randomly distributed or closely spaced, to a first order does not matter for the precipitation amounts produced. Scenes of similar precipitation amounts appear as hyperbolae in our phase-space representation, hyperbolae that follow the contours of the precipitating area fraction. Finally, including the scene-averaged water vapour path (WVP) in our phase-space analysis reveals that scenes with larger WVP contain more cells than drier scenes, whereas the mean area of the cells only weakly varies with WVP. Dry scenes can contain both small and large cells, but they can contain only few cells of each category.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; convection ; object-based approaches ; organization ; precipitation ; storm-resolving modelling
    Language: English
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    September 2019 Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Quasi-6-Day Wave Burst and Ionospheric Effects (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-25
    Description: An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6-day variations in the dayside low-latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode “quasi-6-day wave” (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30–40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; sudden stratospheric warming ; quasi-6-day wave ; planetary wave ; ionosphere ; vertical coupling ; Swarm
    Language: English
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    Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean Etesians and Associated Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: The Etesians are the dominant synoptically driven winds observed in the Eastern Mediterranean, usually from late spring to late summer. Due to the complex topography, the Etesians can be very strong and pose significant environmental hazards, especially over wildfire incidents. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on future Etesians by analyzing the response of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12-km grid resolution over the twenty-first century. The mean model ensemble projects a significant increase of the Etesians' frequency and intensity under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. This response is connected to an increase in the zonal wind at 200 hPa, a reinforcement of the midlatitude westerly flow, and a decrease in the wave amplitude. These circulation changes accelerate the mid-to-high latitude eastward propagation of the large-scale circulation systems which can favor enhanced ridges over the Balkans. A strengthening and poleward shift of the subtropical jet stream is also projected, connected with stronger subsidence over the Eastern Mediterranean. The projected changes will have profound environmental and societal implications, including the lengthening of the wildfire season and increasing air pollution risk in the region. On the other hand, the current estimate of future wind power potential in the Aegean Sea will be significantly increased by the end of the century, which might have positive impact in the regional economy.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Etesians ; extreme winds ; Eastern Mediterranean ; midlatitude atmospheric circulation ; EURO-CORDEX ; future projections
    Language: English
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    Analysis of the Thermodynamic Phase Transition of Tracked Convective Clouds Based on Geostationary Satellite Observations (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: Clouds are liquid at temperature greater than 0°C and ice at temperature below −38°C. Between these two thresholds, the temperature of the cloud thermodynamic phase transition from liquid to ice is difficult to predict and the theory and numerical models do not agree: Microphysical, dynamical, and meteorological parameters influence the glaciation temperature. We temporally track optical and microphysical properties of 796 clouds over Europe from 2004 to 2015 with the space-based instrument Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the geostationary METEOSAT second generation satellites. We define the glaciation temperature as the mean between the cloud top temperature of those consecutive images for which a thermodynamic phase change in at least one pixel is observed for a given cloud object. We find that, on average, isolated convective clouds over Europe freeze at −21.6°C. Furthermore, we analyze the temporal evolution of a set of cloud properties and we retrieve glaciation temperatures binned by meteorological and microphysical regimes: For example, the glaciation temperature increases up to 11°C when cloud droplets are large, in line with previous studies. Moreover, the correlations between the parameters characterizing the glaciation temperature are compared and analyzed and a statistical study based on principal component analysis shows that after the cloud top height, the cloud droplet size is the most important parameter to determine the glaciation temperature.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Clouds ; Glaciation temperature ; geostationary satellite ; SEVIRI ; Thermodynamic phase
    Language: English
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    Impact of Intraseasonal Waves on Angolan Warm and Cold Events (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: The intraseasonal variability of the tropical eastern boundary upwelling region in the Atlantic Ocean is investigated using multiyear mooring and satellite data. Pronounced oscillations of alongshore velocity and sea level off Angola at periods of about 90 and 120 days are observed. Similar spectral peaks are detected along the equator suggesting an equatorial forcing via equatorial and coastally trapped waves. Equatorial variability at 90 days is enhanced only in the eastern Atlantic likely forced by local zonal wind fluctuations. Variability at 120 days is generally stronger and linked to a second equatorial basin mode covering the whole equatorial basin. Besides forcing of the 120‐day variability by equatorial zonal winds, additional forcing of the resonant basin mode likely originates in the central and western tropical North Atlantic. The coastally trapped waves generated at the eastern boundary by the impinging equatorial Kelvin waves that are detected through their variations in sea level anomaly are associated with corresponding sea surface temperature anomalies delayed by about 14 days. Off Angola, those intraseasonal waves interfere with major coastal warm and cold events that occur every few years by either enhancing them as for the Benguela Niño in 1995 or damping them as for the warm event in 2001.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The tropical Angolan upwelling system hosts a highly productive ecosystem which plays a key socioeconomic role for societal development and fisheries in Angola. The eastern boundary circulation off Angola is dominated by the warm poleward‐flowing Angola Current. During austral summer, the Angola Current transports warm tropical waters into the Benguela upwelling system. Such a transport is often linked to extreme coastal warm events the so‐called Benguela Niños. The opposite of Benguela Niños are Benguela Niñas, both affecting the marine ecosystem and climate on multiyear time scale. At intraseasonal time scale, the Angola Current variability is dominated at periods of 90 and 120 days emanating from equatorial forcing. The 120‐day variability in the equatorial basin resembles a resonance of east‐ and westward‐propagating waves. This resonant basin mode transmits part of its energy poleward as coastally trapped waves forcing the variability along the Angolan coast and at the northern boundary of the Gulf of Guinea. The impact of these intraseasonal waves on the development of the extreme coastal warm or cold events can be shown by the relation between sea level and sea surface temperature anomalies in Southern Angola: maximum sea level is leading maximum sea surface temperature by about 14 days.
    Description: Key Points: Intraseasonal variability of the Angola Current is linked to equatorial ocean dynamics and interfere with Benguela Niños and Niñas. Coastally trapped waves off Angola at 120‐day period are associated with equatorial basin‐mode resonance. Intraseasonal coastally trapped waves impact sea surface temperature off Angola and in the Gulf of Guinea via thermocline feedback.
    Description: EU H2020 TRIATLAS project
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (SACUS II)
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Angola Current ; Benguela Niños ; equatorial and coastally trapped waves ; equatorial basin mode ; intraseasonal variability ; thermocline feedback
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    Numerical Study of the Exchange Flow of the Persian Gulf Using an Extended Total Exchange Flow Analysis Framework (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-22
    Description: The Total Exchange Flow analysis framework computes consistent bulk values quantifying the estuarine exchange flow using salinity coordinates since salinity is the main contributor to density in estuaries and the salinity budget is entirely controlled by the exchange flow. For deeper and larger estuaries temperature may contribute equally or even more to the density. That is why we included potential temperature as a second coordinate to the Total Exchange Flow analysis framework, which allows gaining insights in the potential temperature-salinity structure of the exchange flow as well as to compute consistent bulk potential temperature and therefore heat exchange values with the ocean. We applied this theory to the exchange flow of the Persian Gulf, a shallow, semienclosed marginal sea, where dominant evaporation leads to the formation of hypersaline and dense Gulf water. This drives an inverse estuarine circulation which is analyzed with special interest on the seasonal cycle of the exchange flow. The exchange flow of the Persian Gulf is numerically simulated with the General Estuarine Transport Model from 1993 to 2016 and validated against observations. Results show that a clear seasonal cycle exists with stronger exchange flow rates in the first half of the year. Furthermore, the composition of the outflowing water is investigated using passive tracers, which mark different surface waters. The results show that in the first half of the year, most outflowing water comes from the southern coast, while in the second half most water originates from the northwestern region.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Persian Gulf ; Total Exchange Flow ; inverse estuary ; General Estuarine Transport Model ; estuarine circulation
    Language: English
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    Trends in AOD, Clouds, and Cloud Radiative Effects in Satellite Data and CMIP5 and CMIP6 Model Simulations Over Aerosol Source Regions (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-25
    Description: Several regions worldwide have seen significant trends in anthropogenic aerosol emissions during the period of detailed satellite observations since 2001. Over Europe (EUR) and North America (NAM) there were strong declines, over China increases then declines and over India, strong increases. Regional trends in model-simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud radiative effects in both the Fifth and Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6) are broadly consistent with the ones from satellite retrievals in most parts of EUR, NAM and India. CMIP6 models better match satellite-derived AOD trend in western NAM (increasing) and eastern China (decreasing), where CMIP5 models failed, pointing to improved anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Drop concentration trends in both observations and models qualitatively match AOD trends. The result for solar cloud radiative effect in models, however, is due to compensating errors: Models fail to reproduce observed liquid water path trends and show, in turn, opposite trends in cloud fraction.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; aerosol emission trend ; aerosol optical depth ; cloud radiative effects ; aerosol source regions ; CDNC ; climate models
    Language: English
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    Observations and high-resolution simulations of convective precipitation organization over the tropical Atlantic (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: High-resolution simulations (grid spacing 2.5 km) are performed with ICON-LEM to characterize convective organization in the Tropics during August 2016 over a large domain ranging from northeastern South America, along the tropical Atlantic to Africa (8,000×3,000 km). The degree of organization is measured by a refined version of the wavelet-based organization index (WOI), which is able to characterize the scale, the intensity and anisotropy of convection based on rain rates alone. Exploiting the localization of wavelets both in space and time, we define a localized version of the convective organization index (LWOI). We compare convection observed in satellite-derived rain rates with the corresponding processes simulated by ICON-LEM. Model and observations indicate three regions with different kinds of convective organization. Continental convection over West Africa has a predominantly meridional orientation and is more organized than over South America, because it acts on larger scales and is more intense. Convection over the tropical Atlantic is zonally oriented along the ITCZ and less intense. ICON and observations agree on the number and intensity of the African easterly waves during the simulation period. The waves are associated with strong vorticity anomalies and are clearly visible in a spatiotemporal wavelet analysis. The central speed and the wavelength of the waves is simulated well. Both the scale and intensity components of LWOI in ICON are significantly correlated with environmental variables. The scale of precipitation is related to wind shear, CAPE and its tendency, while the intensity strongly correlates with column-integrated humidity, upper-level divergence and maximum vertical wind speed. This demonstrates that the LWOI components capture important characteristics of convective precipitation.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; convective organization ; ICON-LEM ; IMERG ; LWOI ; tropical convection ; wavelet-based organization index ; WOI
    Language: English
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    Sensitivity study of the planetary boundary layer and microphysical schemes to the initialization of convection over the Arabian Peninsula (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: In this study, we present a five-member Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) physics ensemble over the Arabian Peninsula on the convection-permitting (CP) scale and investigate the ability to simulate convection and precipitation by varying the applied cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parametrizations. The study covers a typical precipitation event ocurring during summertime over the eastern part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Our results show that the best results are obtained by using water- and ice-friendly aerosols combined with aerosol-aware Thompson cloud microphysics and the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) PBL parametrization. The diurnal cycle of 2-m temperature over the desert is well captured by all members, although a cold bias is present during the morning and evening transition. All members are capable of simulating the correct timing of the onset of convection. Simulations with the MYNN PBL and Thompson scheme produce the highest convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN), associated with stronger mixing inside the PBL, leading to the formation of more dense liquid water clouds. The WDM6 microphysics scheme is not a suitable option, as there are hardly any liquid water clouds; mainly ice clouds are simulated. Precipitation is best captured by applying the MYNN and Thomspon scheme. Although the ensemble size is relatively small, this allows for the provision of cloud probability maps suitable for cloud-seeding applications.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; convection ; ensemble ; PBL ; UAE ; WRF
    Language: English
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    How Does the North Atlantic SST Pattern Respond to Anthropogenic Aerosols in the 1970s and 2000s? (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: We show how changes in the global distribution of anthropogenic aerosols favor different spatial patterns in the North Atlantic sea‐surface temperature (NASST). The NASSTs largely show the expected decrease associated with the anthropogenic aerosols in the 1970s, but also an unusual warming response in the eastern sub‐polar gyre, the region of the North Atlantic warming hole. The NASST response reversed for the anthropogenic aerosols in the 2000s against 1970s. The regional reduction in anthropogenic aerosols favored as follows: (1) a strengthening of the warming hole and (2) a NASST increase at high latitudes associated with changes in the coupled atmosphere‐ocean dynamics. We found that the gyre component of the northward Atlantic heat transport in mid‐to high latitudes is an important driver for the heat convergence associated with the NASST patterns. At least two‐thirds of the NASST response in MPI‐ESM1.2 is associated with aerosol‐cloud interactions, highlighting the need to better understand them.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The change of the North Atlantic sea‐surface temperature due to anthropogenic aerosols is not well understood. Aerosols reflect incoming solar radiation and influence clouds. Both effects are expected to cool the surface. The expected surface cooling (warming) due to more (less) aerosols is mostly seen in our experiment, but we also find an unusual warming (cooling) in a region in the North Atlantic, where observations show no clear warming trend. We identify that this area, known as the North Atlantic warming hole, is affected by circulation changes that are induced by the aerosol changes between the pre‐industrial, the 1970s and the 2000s. Changes of the heat transport in the ocean from the warming hole to the Arctic drives these changes. The magnitude of this temperature change in our experiments largely depends on the still uncertain aerosol effect on clouds.
    Description: Key Points: Anthropogenic aerosol patterns affect the coupled atmosphere‐ocean dynamical response 1970s to 2000s aerosol pattern change enhances North Atlantic warming hole through ocean meridional heat convergence by the sub‐polar gyre Most of the response to anthropogenic aerosols is associated with aerosol‐cloud interactions
    Description: Max Planck Society
    Description: German Science Foundation
    Description: German Federal Ministry for Transportation and Digital Infrastructure
    Keywords: 551.5 ; anthropogenic aerosols ; circulation ; climate response ; heat transport ; North Atlantic ; warming hole
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    A Detailed, Multi‐Scale Assessment of an Atmospheric River Event and Its Impact on Extreme Glacier Melt in the Southern Alps of New Zealand (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: North‐westerly airflow and associated atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been found to profoundly influence New Zealand’s west coasts, by causing flooding, landslides and extreme ablation and accumulation on glaciers in the Southern Alps. However, the response of local glacier mass balance to synoptic‐scale circulation, including events with ARs, has typically not been investigated by considering mesoscale processes explicitly. In this study, high‐resolution atmospheric simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to investigate the mesoscale drivers of an extreme ablation event on Brewster Glacier (Southern Alps), which occurred on February 6, 2011 during the landfall of an AR on the South Island. The following processes were found to be crucial for transferring the high temperature and water vapor contained in the AR into energy available for melt on Brewster Glacier: First, the moist‐neutral character of the air mass enabled the flow to pass over the ridge, leading to the development of orographic clouds and precipitation on the windward side of the orography, and foehn winds on the leeside. These processes fueled melt through longwave radiation and strong turbulent and rain heat fluxes within the high‐condensation environment of the orographic cloud. Second, orographic enhancement occurred due to both cellular convection within the cloud and the combined effect of multiple precipitating systems by the seeder‐feeder‐mechanism. These results indicate the potential importance of AR dynamics for New Zealand’s glaciers. They also illustrate the benefit of mesoscale atmospheric modeling for advancing process understanding of the glacier‐climate relationship in New Zealand.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric rivers, which are elongated, narrow structures in the atmosphere that convey large amounts of moisture through the midlatitudes, have been found to impact coastal regions worldwide, including New Zealand. Besides causing flooding and landslides, they can affect glaciers in coastal mountains such as the Southern Alps. The processes causing the high temperature and moisture in atmospheric rivers to trigger melt (or snowfall) at the glacier surface have, however, not been investigated explicitly because they operate at the size of mountain valleys and ridges which are difficult to represent in global data‐sets. We address this by using an atmospheric model with high spatial detail to simulate a case study, where an atmospheric river coincided with extreme melt on Brewster Glacier in the Southern Alps. We find that the stability characteristics of the impinging warm and moist air masses lent the air the potential to ascend the mountain instead of being directed around. This resulted in cloud and precipitation development on the windward slopes whereby rain amounts were further enhanced by internal processes within the clouds. Melt was promoted through heat released from condensation and rainfall. Conversely, on the lee slopes, downslope winds caused warm and dry conditions.
    Description: Key Points: The mass balance of Brewster Glacier is affected by an atmospheric river causing extreme melt through rain and turbulent energy transfer. Orographic enhancement and weak stability in the atmospheric river cause precipitation on windward slopes while leesides are foehn‐affected. Regional atmospheric modeling can advance the process understanding of the glacier‐climate relationship in New Zealand’s mountains.
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung (Humboldt‐Stiftung) German Research Foundation (DFG): MO 2869/4‐1 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Atmospheric river ; glacier ablation ; mesoscale processes ; New Zealand Southern Alps ; orographic precipitation ; WRF
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    When Does the Lorenz 1963 Model Exhibit the Signal‐To‐Noise Paradox? (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: Seasonal prediction systems based on Earth System Models exhibit a lower proportion of predictable signal to unpredictable noise than the actual world. This puzzling phenomena has been widely referred to as the signal‐to‐noise paradox (SNP). Here, we investigate the SNP in a conceptual framework of a seasonal prediction system based on the Lorenz, 1963 Model (L63). We show that the SNP is not apparent in L63, if the uncertainty assumed for the initialization of the ensemble is equal to the uncertainty in the starting conditions. However, if the uncertainty in the initialization overestimates the uncertainty in the starting conditions, the SNP is apparent. In these experiments the metric used to quantify the SNP also shows a clear lead‐time dependency on subseasonal timescales. We therefore, formulate the alternative hypothesis to previous studies that the SNP could also be related to the magnitude of the initial ensemble spread.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Comprehensive Earth System Models seem to be better at predicting the real observed climate system than expected based on their ability to predict their own modelled climate system. This puzzling phenomena is known as the signal‐to‐noise paradox (SNP) and its origin is still under intensive scientific debate with some studies pointing to deficiencies in the model formulation. In this study we investigate under which conditions the SNP can be obtained using a simple conceptual framework for a climate prediction system based on a simple dynamical model. Our results show that the SNP can be reproduced in the absence of model deficiencies if the model overestimates the observational uncertainty. We also investigate the development of the SNP on subseasonal timescales and find a clear dependency on the lead‐time of the prediction. Our results lead us to formulate an alternative hypothesis to previous studies on the origin of the SNP.
    Description: Key Points: Whether forecasts in the Lorenz Model are reliable or not depends on the ratio of initial ensemble spread to observational uncertainty Until predictability is lost in the Lorenz Model the level of over‐or underconfidence increases with increasing lead‐time
    Description: Copernicus Climate Change Service
    Description: Marine Institute and the European Regional Development fund
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation)
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Lorenz Model
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    General Circulation Model Selection Technique for Downscaling: Exemplary Application to East Africa (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: Downscaling is widely used in studies of local and/or regional climate as it yields a greater spatial resolution than general circulation models (GCMs) can provide. It utilizes GCM output or reanalysis data, which is transformed using mathematical relationships or used to force the lateral boundaries of a regional climate model. However, there is no set selection technique to determine which GCM realization(s) to employ. Here, a comprehensive yet easily applicable model selection technique for studies requiring GCM data as a constraint was developed. The technique evaluates, with respect to a reanalysis product and/or observational data, the ability of GCM realizations to reconstruct the mean state of the climate and the space‐time climatic anomalies for the atmospheric state variables at three distinct pressure levels. It was applied to the region of East Africa, where GISS‐E2‐H r6i1p3 was found to perform the strongest. The top ranked realizations were found to better capture processes when evaluated for the example of the Indian Ocean Dipole. Furthermore, the surface air temperature and precipitation from three 10‐year regional climate model simulations, one forced by the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 reanalysis, one forced by the top ranked GCM, and one by the lowest ranked one, were compared to gridded observations. Results show that using a top ranked GCM for the boundary conditions leads to a better dynamical downscaling simulation than a low‐ranked GCM, suggesting the potential of the proposed technique for future downscaling techniques.
    Description: Key Points: Creation of a comprehensive and easily applicable model selection technique for downscaling Top ranked models are better able to capture processes for Indian Ocean Dipole example Using a top ranked general circulation model (GCM) for the boundary conditions leads to a better dynamical downscaling simulation than a low‐ranked GCM
    Description: German Research Foundation (DFG)
    Keywords: 551.5 ; downscaling ; East Africa ; general circulation models ; model selection
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    First Studies of Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Dynamics Using a Multistatic Specular Meteor Radar Network Over Southern Patagonia (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: This paper presents for the first time results on winds, tides, gradients of horizontal winds, and momentum fluxes at mesosphere and lower thermosphere altitudes over southern Patagonia, one of the most dynamically active regions in the world. For this purpose, measurements provided by SIMONe Argentina are investigated. SIMONe Argentina is a novel multistatic specular meteor radar system that implements a Spread‐spectrum Interferometric Multistatic meteor radar Observing Network (SIMONe) approach, and that has been operating since the end of September 2019. Average counts of more than 30,000 meteor detections per day result in tidal estimates with statistical uncertainties of less than 1 m/s. Thanks to the multistatic configuration, horizontal and vertical gradients of the horizontal winds are obtained, as well as vertical winds free from horizontal divergence contamination. The vertical gradients of both zonal and meridional winds exhibit strong tidal signatures. Mean momentum fluxes are estimated after removing the effects of mean winds using a 4‐h, 8‐km window in time and altitude, respectively. Reasonable statistical uncertainties of the momentum fluxes are obtained after applying a 28‐day averaging. Therefore, the momentum flux estimates presented in this paper represent monthly mean values of waves with periods of 4 h or less, vertical wavelengths shorter than 8 km, and horizontal scales less than 400 km.
    Description: Key Points: First observations of mesosphere and lower thermosphere dynamics over one of the most dynamically active regions in the world Estimates of mean horizontal winds and their gradients are possible, thanks to the multistatic configuration Mean momentum fluxes are estimated with vertical velocity estimates free of horizontal divergence contamination
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: 551.5 ; horizontal gradients ; meteor radar ; MLT ; momentum flux ; tides ; winds
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    Californian Wildfire Smoke Over Europe: A First Example of the Aerosol Observing Capabilities of Aeolus Compared to Ground‐Based Lidar (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: In September 2020, extremely strong wildfires in the western United States of America (i.e., mainly in California) produced large amounts of smoke, which was lifted into the free troposphere. These biomass‐burning‐aerosol (BBA) layers were transported from the US west coast toward central Europe within 3–4 days turning the sky milky and receiving high media attention. The present study characterizes this pronounced smoke plume above Leipzig, Germany, using a ground‐based multiwavelength‐Raman‐polarization lidar and the aerosol/cloud product of ESA’s wind lidar mission Aeolus. An exceptional high smoke‐AOT 〉0.4 was measured, yielding to a mean mass concentration of 8 μg m−3. The 355 nm lidar ratio was moderate at around 40–50 sr. The Aeolus‐derived backscatter, extinction and lidar ratio profiles agree well with the observations of the ground‐based lidar PollyXT considering the fact that Aeolus’ aerosol and cloud products are still preliminary and subject to ongoing algorithm improvements.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In September 2020, extremely strong wildfires in the western USA (i.e., mainly in California) produced large amounts of smoke. These biomass burning aerosol (BBA) layers were transported from the US west coast towards central Europe within 3‐4 days. This smoke plume was observed above Leipzig, Germany, for several days turning the sky milky and receiving high media attention ‐ it was the highest perturbation of the troposphere in terms of AOT ever observed over Leipzig. The first smoke plume arrived on 11 September 2020, just in time for a regular overpass of the Aeolus satellite of the European Space Agency (ESA). Aeolus accommodates the first instrument in space that actively measures profiles of a horizontal wind component in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Aeolus has been launched to improve weather forecasts while assimilating the Aeolus wind profile data in near–real time. But Aeolus also delivers profiles of aerosol and cloud optical properties as spin‐off products. We performed a first assessment of the aerosol profiling capabilities of Aeolus while precisely analyzing the smoke plume above Leipzig with a ground‐based multiwavelength‐Raman‐polarization lidar. But we also show the dramatic impact of fires in the western USA on atmospheric conditions over central Europe.
    Description: Key Points: Smoke from the extraordinary 2020 Californian wild fires traveled within 3–4 days toward Europe Highest Aerosol Optical Thickness ever measured in the free troposphere over Leipzig, Germany, Central Europe, with ground‐based lidar Unique opportunity for a first assessment of the aerosol optical profiles of the spaceborne wind lidar mission Aeolus
    Description: German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi)
    Description: German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)
    Description: European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Aeolus ; biomass burning aerosol ; lidar ; remote sensing ; smoke ; wild fires
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    Intensification of the Atlantic Water Supply to the Arctic Ocean Through Fram Strait Induced by Arctic Sea Ice Decline (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-24
    Description: Substantial changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean in the last decades. Not only sea ice has retreated significantly, but also the ocean at middepth showed a warming tendency. By using simulations we identified a mechanism that intensifies the upward trend in ocean heat supply to the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait. The reduction in sea ice export through Fram Strait induced by Arctic sea ice decline increases the salinity in the Greenland Sea, which lowers the sea surface height and strengthens the cyclonic gyre circulation in the Nordic Seas. The Atlantic Water volume transport to the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean is consequently strengthened. This enhances the warming trend of the Arctic Atlantic Water layer, potentially contributing to the Arctic “Atlantification.” Our study suggests that the Nordic Seas can play the role of a switchyard to influence the heat budget of the Arctic Ocean.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Arctic Ocean ; Atlantic Water ; sea ice decline ; Nordic Seas ; Greenland Sea ; Atlantification
    Language: English
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    Inversions of Estuarine Circulation Are Frequent in a Weakly Tidal Estuary With Variable Wind Forcing and Seaward Salinity Fluctuations (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: The hydrodynamics in estuaries is mainly governed by the competition between a horizontal density gradient, friction, and wind stress. The sensitivity of the estuarine exchange flow to the wind stress increases in the absence of tides, which is investigated here using the example of the weakly tidal Warnow river estuary in the southwestern Baltic Sea—the mouth of which is characterized by strongly varying salinities of 8 to 20 g kg−1. The interaction between a volatile salinity gradient and along-estuary wind forcing is found to cause temporary inversions of the estuarine circulation. Despite the highly dynamic conditions, the applicability of recent theories for isohaline mixing, using the framework of Total Exchange Flow, and the strength of the exchange flow, using a non-dimensional parameter space, could be confirmed. By analyzing salinity fluxes at the mouth of the estuary, a mixing completeness of 84% was calculated for the estuary. Furthermore, inversion of estuarine circulation was typically found for a local Wedderburn number (ratio of non-dimensional wind stress to non-dimensional horizontal density gradient) exceeding 0.33, indicating a high sensitivity to along-estuary wind.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; estuarine circulation ; salt mixing ; wind straining ; Total Exchange Flow
    Language: English
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    Temporal Variations of the Marine Geoid (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: The effects of temporal changes in the marine geoid on estimates of the ocean dynamic topography are being investigated. Influences from mass redistribution due to changes of land hydrology, ice sheets, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), and ocean and atmospheric dynamics are considered, and the associated crustal deformation is included. The strongest signals are associated with the seasonal cycle caused by changes in terrestrial water storage and ice sheets as well as the redistribution of atmospheric mass. Second to this is the importance of an overall trend caused by GIA and decreasing ice sheets over Greenland and Antarctica. On long spatial scales, the amplitude of regional trends estimated for the geoid height has a sizable fraction of those from sea level anomaly (SLA) for the period 1993–2016, also after subtraction of steric height of the upper 1,000 m to analyze trends in deep ocean geostrophic currents. The estimated strong negative geoid height trend south of Greenland for the period 1993–2016 opposes changes in dynamic sea level for the same period thereby affecting past studies on changes of both the strength of the subpolar gyre based on SLA and the meridional overturning circulation on a section between Cape Farewell and Portugal applying ocean dynamic topography and hydrography. We conclude that temporal geoid height trends should be considered in studies of (multi)decadal trends in sea level and circulation on large spatial scales based on altimetry data referenced to a geoid field.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Changes in ocean surface currents are routinely obtained from satellite altimetry data. A correction for changes in the geoid, the equipotential surface of gravity closest to sea level, is considered small and thus usually neglected. We investigate temporal geoid height changes and potential implications on ocean circulation studies using space‐borne gravity data and results from ocean and atmosphere models to discover the individual processes of mass redistribution in the climate system causing thereby changes in the geoid height. We found the largest signals in the seasonal cycle for terrestrial hydrology in the Amazone basin and in negative trends for the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets. For the period 1993–2016 and on spatial scale larger than 1,000 km or so the magnitude of the negative marine geoid height trend south of Greenland is similar to the strength of the negative trend in geocentric sea level from altimetry. This outcome affects past studies on changes in the strength of the subpolar gyre and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation that neglect geoid height variations. We conclude that temporal geoid height trends should be considered in studies of (multi)decadal trends in sea level and circulation on large spatial scales based on altimetry data.
    Description: Key Points: The strongest geoid height changes are associated with regionally pronounced seasonal signals and secular trends. In the Subpolar North Atlantic the geoid height trend biases circulation trend estimates based on altimetry. Altimetry data need correction for geoid height change when long‐term variations in ocean dynamics are studied.
    Description: German Science Foundation (DFG)
    Description: BMBF funded Verbundprojekt RACE (Regional Atlantic Circulation and Global Change)
    Description: DFG http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004807
    Keywords: 550.312 ; 551.46 ; geoid height ; altimetry ; ocean dynamic topography ; temporal variability ; trend
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    Geothermal Convection and Double Diffusion Based on Profiling Floats in the Black Sea (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: Here, we revisit the existing concepts of the vertical structure of deep layers in the Black Sea using data from sensors deployed on profiling floats. The deep transition layer (DTL) between 700 and 1,700 m acts as an interface between the baroclinic layer and the largest bottom convective layer (BCL) of the world oceans. On top of DTL are the warm intermediate layer and deep cold intermediate layer. They both showed strong trends in the last 15 years due to warmer climate and intensification of warmer intrusions from Bosporus. A “salinity wave” was detected in 2005–2009 below ∼1,700 m, which evidenced for the first time the penetration of gravity flow from Bosporus down to the bottom. The layering of water masses was explained as resulting from the different distribution of sources of heat and salt, double diffusion, and balances between the geothermal and salinity flows in the BCL.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: A total of 5,927 profiles from 31 profiling floats deployed in the Black Sea after 2005 were used to study the thermohaline dynamic. The density ratio, which sets the conditions under which double diffusion could occur qualifies most of the depths below 600 m as a double‐diffusive environment, which was confirmed by the observed staircase structure of vertical profiles. The qualitative differences between the temperature and salinity profiles in DTL are explained by the different distributions of sources and sinks of heat and salt. This layer acts as a transition zone between the bottom convective layer and the baroclinic ocean. A deep cold intermediate layer (DCIL) occupies the top of the DTL. The former became pronounced in recent years as a consequence of the warming of upper water layers. The large salinity variations from 2005 to 2009 observed at the bottom of the DTL evidenced traces of the penetration of the Bosporus plume down to the bottom for the first time. Combining known values of geothermal flow and concepts from the theory of dynamics of salinity‐stratified tanks heated from below made it possible to quantify the mean annual volume of Bosporus water reaching the bottom.
    Description: Key Points: Profiling floats registered for the first time traces of Bosporus intrusions down to the bottom. The deep warm and cold intermediate layers are responsive to climate warming. Different sources of heat and salt dominate the transition between the baroclinic ocean and bottom convection layer.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; 551.46 ; baroclinicity ; double diffusion ; geothermal convection ; profiling floats ; sources of heat and salt ; water masses
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    Stable Isotope Composition of Cyclone Mekunu Rainfall, Southern Oman (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: Cyclone Mekunu hit the southern Arabian Peninsula in late May 2018 and brought rainfall amounts that accounted for up to 6 times the mean annual precipitation. Coming from the Arabian Sea, a quite underdocumented region with regard to cyclones, the storm eye crossed the Omani coast approximately 80 km east of the border to Yemen. Using automatic samplers, rainfall samples were collected during the event at three locations along a transect almost parallel to the storm track. The stable isotope analyses show a wide range of δ values, with minimum and maximum values of −17.01‰ δ18O and −1.77‰ δ18O and −122.2‰ δ2H and −1.6‰ δ2H. On average, rainfall becomes isotopically lighter with elevation, but rather irregularly. In view of high wind speeds probably precluding a gradual rainout of ascending air masses, a “pseudo elevation effect” seems likely. Our measurements expand the known δ value range of local cyclones by about 6‰ for δ18O and by nearly 50‰ for δ2H. The isotopic composition of the annual Indian Summer Monsoon shows values of −0.93‰ δ18O to 2.21‰ δ18O and −2.1‰ δ2H to 23.7‰ δ2H. Thus, there is a clear difference in the dual isotope signatures of the two precipitation systems in the area. Our findings enable an assessment of the impact of cyclones on the hydro(geo)logical system. For the arid Najd area, we demonstrate that the isotopic signatures of groundwater samples fall between those of cyclone and (paleo)monsoon precipitation, suggesting that several rainfall types may have contributed to replenishment.
    Description: Key Points: We conducted high‐resolution sampling of a tropical cyclone from the Arabian Sea for stable isotope and hydrochemical analyses. The strong depletion in heavy isotopes and large intra‐event variations confirm observations from tropical storms elsewhere. There was no overlap with the isotopic fingerprint of local monsoon rains.
    Description: The Research Council (TRC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004787
    Description: The Research Council of Oman
    Keywords: 551.5 ; tropical cyclone ; stable isotopes ; precipitation ; paleoclimate ; Oman ; Arabian Sea
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    Processes of Stratification and Destratification During An Extreme River Discharge Event in the German Bight ROFI (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: Processes of stratification and destratification in the German Bight region of fresh water influence (ROFI) are investigated following an extreme river discharge event in June 2013. For this purpose, a high‐resolution baroclinic ocean model is set up and validated against field data. The model results are used to study the temporal and spatial variability of stratification and the duration of persistent stratification in 2013. The relevant processes affecting stratification are investigated by analyzing the potential energy anomaly budget, with a focus on mixing and tidal straining. It is shown that the stratification in the German Bight is highly affected by the spring‐neap tidal cycle, with generally less stratification at spring tides due to dominant tidal mixing. It is also shown that the location of the river plume can modify this pattern. During spring tides, if the river plume is confined to the eastern region, stratification decreases significantly, as expected, due to the dominance of mixing over tidal straining. On the other hand, if the river plume moves toward deeper regions at spring tides, strong tidal straining becomes present. In this condition, mixing is weak, and the dominant tidal straining results in persistent stratification.
    Description: Key Points: Processes impacting the German Bight stratification are investigated using a high‐resolution baroclinic model. The position of the river plume highly affects the contribution of tidal straining and mixing to changes in stratification. Strong tidal straining can result in persistent stratification even during spring tides.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: German Research Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: German Environment Agency http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010809
    Keywords: 551.46 ; stratification ; tidal‐straining ; mixing ; extreme river discharge ; numerical model ; German Bight ROFI
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    Geoengineered Ocean Vertical Water Exchange Can Accelerate Global Deoxygenation (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-06-27
    Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, that is, “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU),” for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178–457 m‐depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e., AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.
    Description: Key Points: Artificial downwelling (AD) and upwelling (AU) in the eastern Pacific oxygen deficient region are simulated in a global model Both technologies can effectively mitigate local expansion of intermediate‐depth oceanic oxygen deficient zones under climate change Global deoxygenation is however enhanced due to increased export production and aerobic respiration resulting from AD and AU
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: German Research Foundation (DFG)
    Keywords: 551.46 ; deoxygenation ; geoengineering ; artificial upwelling ; artificial downwelling ; Earth system model ; marine hypoxia
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    Reconstruction of the Basin‐Wide Sea‐Level Variability in the North Sea Using Coastal Data and Generative Adversarial Networks (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: We present an application of generative adversarial networks (GANs) to reconstruct the sea level of the North Sea using a limited amount of data from tidal gauges (TGs). The application of this technique, which learns how to generate datasets with the same statistics as the training set, is explained in detail to ensure that interested scientists can implement it in similar or different oceanographic cases. Training is performed for all of 2016, and the model is validated on data from 3 months in 2017 and compared against reconstructions using the Kalman filter approach. Tests with datasets generated by an operational model (“true data”) demonstrated that using data from only 19 locations where TGs permanently operate is sufficient to generate an adequate reconstruction of the sea surface height (SSH) in the entire North Sea. The machine learning approach appeared successful when learning from different sources, which enabled us to feed the network with real observations from TGs and produce high‐quality reconstructions of the basin‐wide SSH. Individual reconstruction experiments using different combinations of training and target data during the training and validation process demonstrated similarities with data assimilation when errors in the data and model were not handled appropriately. The proposed method demonstrated good skill when analyzing both the full signal and the low‐frequency variability only. It was demonstrated that GANs are also skillful at learning and replicating processes with multiple time scales. The different skills in different areas of the North Sea are explained by the different signal‐to‐noise ratios associated with differences in regional dynamics.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The variability of sea level is one of the most important elements of the ocean dynamics. Basin‐wide observations are due to satellite altimeters, observations in coastal stations are provided by tidal gauges. The first are not very accurate in the coastal areas, the second do not provide basin‐wide coverage. The task in the present work is to use machine learning to reconstruct the sea‐level variability in the North Sea, which is an almost enclosed ocean region, using observations only. Using data from 19 coastal stations and data from numerical models as a representation of the true ocean (synthetic observations), we demonstrated that the generative adversarial networks reconstruct almost perfectly the sea level of the North Sea. The application of this technique, which learns how to generate datasets with the same statistics as the training set, is explained in detail to ensure that interested scientists can implement it in similar or different oceanographic cases.
    Description: Key Points: Generative Adversarial Networks successfully reconstruct basin‐wide sea level in the North Sea using data from tidal gauges. Machine learning appeared successful when learning from different data sources. The proposed method is skillful at learning and replicating processes with multiple time scales.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; deep learning ; numerical models ; sea level ; tidal gauges ; tides
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    Phase Changes of Electromagnetic Oceanic Tidal Signals (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: Over the last years, the number of studies that investigate or utilize the electromagnetic (EM) signals generated by ocean tides is steadily growing. However, the majority of these studies focuses on the amplitudes of EM tidal signals. This study investigates the phases of EM tidal signals and their changes. Twenty‐six years of monthly observation‐based datasets of tidal velocities, geomagnetic field, and oceanic conductivity are fed into an EM induction solver to generate varying EM tidal signals. The sensitivities of the resulting EM signals are analyzed by forbidding or allowing the input datasets to vary in time. We report on the phase's sensitivities with respect to changes in the EM properties, that is, secular variation of the geomagnetic field and changes in oceanic conductivity. Distinct temporal behavior and distinct geographic pattern for the two sensitivities can be reported. In general, apart from global phase shifts of 3–5 degrees, concentrated areas with phase shifts of up to 45 degrees occur all over the globe, over the oceans, for example, Arctic and Atlantic Ocean, as well as on coastal land regions, for example, Southwest Greenland and Japan. Very locally, phase shifts of 90 degree or higher occur.
    Description: Key Points: Electromagnetic tidal signals show significant spatiotemporal phase changes. Annual and monthly phase anomalies are found to be of oceanic origin. Decadal transient phase anomalies are generated by secular variation and changing oceanic conductivity.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; climate and interannual variability ; electromagnetic fields ; ocean tides ; tidal phases
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    Hemispheric and Seasonal Contrast in Cloud Thermodynamic Phase From A‐Train Spaceborne Instruments (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: Aerosol‐cloud interactions are an important source of uncertainty in current climate models. To understand and quantify the influence of ice‐nucleating particles in cloud glaciation, it is crucial to have a reliable estimation of the hemispheric and seasonal contrast in cloud top phase, which is believed to result from the higher dust aerosol loading in boreal spring. For this reason, we locate and quantify these contrasts by combining three different A‐Train cloud‐phase products for the period 2007–2010. These products rely on a spaceborne lidar, a lidar‐radar synergy, and a radiometer‐polarimeter synergy. We show that the cloud‐phase from the product combination is more reliable and that the estimation of the hemispheric and seasonal contrast has a lower error compared to the individual products. To quantify the contrast in cloud‐phase, we use the hemispheric difference in ice cloud frequency normalized by the liquid cloud frequency in the southern hemisphere between −42 °C and 0 °C. In the midlatitudes, from −15 to −30 °C, the hemispheric contrasts increase with decreasing temperature. At −30 °C, the hemispheric contrast varies from 29% to 39% for the individual cloud‐phase products and from 52% to 73% for the product combination. Similarly, in the northern hemisphere, we assess the seasonal contrast between spring and fall normalized by the liquid cloud frequency during fall. At −30 °C, the seasonal contrast ranges from 21% to 39% for the individual cloud‐phase products and from 54% to 75% for the product combination.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The influence of atmospheric particles on clouds is one of the main unknowns in climate predictions. Particularly, the cloud glaciation process and its dependence on desert dust and soot particles are not well‐understood. To better understand the differences in cloud glaciation between hemispheres, we counted liquid and ice cloud tops, as observed from four different satellites, during 4 years. Combining these observations, we could confirm a higher frequency of ice cloud tops during spring in the northern hemisphere. We found that the contrast between hemispheres is higher than previously thought. These results will help to improve our understanding of cloud glaciation processes, which can be valuable for future climate predictions and for understanding the impact of aerosols on radiation and precipitation.
    Description: Key Points: A satellite product ensemble was used to locate and quantify the hemispheric and seasonal contrast in cloud top thermodynamic phase. At −30 °C, half of the liquid cloud tops observed in the southern hemisphere would glaciate in the northern hemisphere. The new product ensemble is more reliable than the individual products and suggests a previous underestimation of the cloud‐phase contrasts.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cloud glaciation ; cloud‐phase ; hemispheric contrast ; heterogeneous freezing ; ice particles ; INP
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    Mesospheric Q2DW Interactions With Four Migrating Tides at 53°N Latitude: Zonal Wavenumber Identification Through Dual‐Station Approaches (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: Mesospheric winds from two longitudinal sectors at 53°N latitude are combined to investigate quasi‐two‐day waves (Q2DWs) and their nonlinear interactions with tides. In a summer 2019 case study, we diagnose the zonal wavenumber m of spectral peaks at expected frequencies through two dual‐station approaches, a phase differencing technique (PDT) on individual spectral peaks and a least squares procedure on family batched peaks. Consistent results from the approaches verify the occurrences of Rossby‐gravity modes (m = 3 and 4 at periods T = 2.1  and 1.7 days), and their secondary waves (SWs) generated from interactions with diurnal, semi‐diurnal, ter‐diurnal, and quatra‐diurnal migrating tides. We further extend the PDT to 2012–2019, illustrating that Q2DWs exhibit significant interannual variability. Composite analysis reveals seasonal and altitude variations of the Rossby‐gravity modes and their SWs. The Rossby‐gravity modes maximize in local summer, whereas their 16‐ and 9.6‐h SWs appear more in winter.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The quasi‐two‐day wave is the strongest and most widely studied planetary wave occurring in the mesosphere. Existing observational analyses are based on either single‐satellite or ‐station approaches, which suffer from temporal and spatial aliasing, respectively. The current study implements and develops dual‐station approaches to investigate the mesospheric quasi‐two‐day wave at 53°N latitude, in a case and a statistical study. Our approaches allow diagnosing both the frequency and zonal wavenumber. In the case study, we diagnosed two Rossby‐gravity modes and the secondary waves (SWs) of the nonlinear interactions between the Rossby‐gravity modes and the migrating tides at periods of 24, 12, 8, and 6 h. While the interactions with the 24‐ and 12‐h tides are expected, those with the 8‐ and 6‐h tides are reported for the first time. In the statistical study, we report the seasonality and altitude variation of the Rossby‐gravity modes and their most dominant SWs.
    Description: Key Points: Multi‐station approaches are developed and applied to diagnose zonal wavenumber m of near‐2‐day, ‐16‐h, ‐9.6‐h, and ‐6.9‐h spectral peaks. Diagnosed are Rossby‐gravity modes with m = 3 and 4, and their secondary waves from nonlinear interactions with 24‐, 12‐, 8‐, and 6‐h migrating tides. Seasonally, the most dominant near‐2‐day, ‐16‐h, ‐9.6‐h waves occur in summer, winter, and winter, respectively.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; atmosphere‐ionosphere coupling ; cross‐wavelet ; mesosphere ; quasi‐two‐days ; Rossby‐gravity wave ; zonal wavenumber
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    Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: A 700‐year pre‐industrial control run with the MPI‐ESM‐LR model is used to investigate the link between the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern and the Pacific‐Caribbean rainfall dipole (PCD), a link that has previously been shown using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data. In the model, it is found that the link between the SEA and PCD is present in some multidecadal epochs but not in others. A simple statistical model reproduces this behaviour. In the statistical model, the SEA is represented by a white noise process plus a weak influence from the PCD based on the full 700 years of the model run. The statistical model is relevant to other extratropical modes of variability, for example, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that are weakly influenced by the Tropics. It follows that the link between the Tropics and the winter NAO is likely to undergo modulation on multidecadal time scales, as found in some previous studies. The results suggest that any predictability of the SEA, and by implication the NAO, based on tropical rainfall may not be robust and may, in fact, be modulated on multidecadal time scales, with implications for seasonal and decadal prediction systems.
    Description: The positive phase of the SEA is associated with warm summers in Europe. The figure shows the running correlation in 51 year windows between the SEA index and the corresponding tropical rainfall index in a long pre‐industrial model run. The link between tropical rainfall and the SEA exists only in some decadal epochs, shown by the green shading, implying that predictability of the SEA based on tropical rainfall can be expected to vary on multidecadal time scales.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; nonstationarity ; seasonal prediction ; summer East Atlantic pattern
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    A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Convective clouds play a crucial role in Earth's climate. The way they interact with the atmospheric circulation is not well understood, and is associated with long‐standing problems in weather forecasting and climate prediction. Recent research has suggested that the spatial structure of these cloud fields is a key factor in this problem, and that improving our understanding of such convective cloud patterns is crucial for making progress. This study explores a new model framework for generating such cloud patterns, consisting of populations of convective objects on small grids. The objects are born in a random way, complete a life cycle, and can freely move around on the grid. They can also interact and form larger clusters, obeying certain rules of interaction. The way the objects behave and move around features some key innovations compared to previous ecosystem models of this kind. These are introduced to optimize the performance and reduce run time on a computer. Various experiments are conducted to explore the new model, illustrating that well‐known behavior of convective populations is reproduced. These tests also highlight opportunities created for improving convection in weather and climate models.
    Description: Key Points: A scale‐aware stochastic number generator based on a Bernoulli process is applied to model object births and advection on Eulerian grids. Discreteness in object number is conserved, while an age dimension is included to represent object life cycle effects. Population subsampling effects in the convective gray zone are reproduced, while simple applications capture well‐known convective behavior.
    Description: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000015
    Keywords: 551.5 ; binomial sampling ; convective clouds ; gray zone ; microgrids ; object interactions ; population modeling
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    On the Along‐Slope Heat Loss of the Boundary Current in the Eastern Arctic Ocean (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: This study presents recent observations to quantify oceanic heat fluxes along the continental slope of the Eurasian part of the Arctic Ocean, in order to understand the dominant processes leading to the observed along‐track heat loss of the Arctic Boundary Current (ABC). We investigate the fate of warm Atlantic Water (AW) along the Arctic Ocean continental margin of the Siberian Seas based on 11 cross‐slope conductivity, temperature, depth transects and direct heat flux estimates from microstructure profiles obtained in summer 2018. The ABC loses on average O(108) J m−2 per 100 km during its propagation along the Siberian shelves, corresponding to an average heat flux of 47 W m−2 out of the AW layer. The measured vertical heat flux on the upper AW interface of on average 10 W m−2 in the deep basin, and 3.7 W m−2 above the continental slope is larger than previously reported values. Still, these heat fluxes explain less than 20% of the observed heat loss within the boundary current. Heat fluxes are significantly increased in the turbulent near‐bottom layer, where AW intersects the continental slope, and at the lee side of a topographic irregularity. This indicates that mixing with ambient colder water along the continental margins is an important contribution to AW heat loss. Furthermore, the cold halocline layer receives approximately the same amount of heat due to upward mixing from the AW, compared to heat input from the summer‐warmed surface layer above. This underlines the importance of both surface warming and increased vertical mixing in a future ice‐free Arctic Ocean in summer.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Warm water from the Atlantic Ocean enters the Arctic Ocean through the Barents Sea and the Fram Strait, between Greenland and Norway, and directly influences the formation of sea ice: When the Atlantic Water (AW) is located close to the ocean's surface, as is the case shortly after its inflow in the Barents Sea, sea ice melts and new sea ice formation is hindered. This is why the Barents Sea is often ice free, even in winter. Further along the pathway, in the Laptev and East Siberian Sea study region, the AW gradually cools and dives down to deeper layers. In order to quantify the cooling and to understand how and where it happens, we measured vertical profiles of temperature and heat fluxes along a 2,500 km long part of the AW pathway. Based on these measurements, we found that the heat loss mainly occurs by mixing of warm AW with ambient cold water above the continental slope, in particular in the highly energetic region near the sea floor.
    Description: Key Points: The Atlantic Water (AW) transported in the Arctic Boundary Current loses O(108)  J m−2 per 100 km during its translation along the Siberian shelves Heat fluxes are larger than previously reported values, but too small to account for this heat loss, indicating the importance of boundary mixing The heat input from the underlying AW layer to the cold halocline is of similar magnitude to the heat input from the warm surface layer above
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: NSF | GEO | Division of Ocean Sciences http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000141
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Arctic Boundary Current ; Arctic Ocean ; heat flux ; Laptev Sea ; mixing ; turbulence
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    High‐Resolution Observations of Turbulence Distributions Across Tropopause Folds (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: In this study, we interpret two vertical turbulence measurements. We acquired these uninterrupted high‐resolution dissipation rate profiles with the balloon‐borne instrument LITOS (Leibniz Institute Turbulence Observations in the Stratosphere) from velocity measurements using a spectral technique. The meteorological situation is characterized using ECMWF’s integrated forecast system (IFS) as breaking Rossby waves showing significant tropospheric jets and a developed tropopause fold. In both cases, dissipation rates in the shear zone above the upper‐tropospheric jet are three orders of magnitude larger than below, reaching severe turbulence strengths (1,000 mW kg−1) in a deep tropopause fold and moderate turbulence strengths in a medium tropopause fold (10 mW kg−1). These turbulent spots are shown to create a tripole shaped pattern of PV modification across the tropopause. Furthermore, tracer‐tracer correlations exhibit mixing of tropospheric and stratospheric air masses in the medium‐fold case. While the strength of turbulence corresponds to the depth of the tropopause fold, its asymmetric vertical distribution is possibly related to the tropopause fold life cycle. The observed asymmetry in the vertical turbulence distribution is consistent across both tropopause folds and in overall agreement with measured Richardson numbers. In the medium‐fold case however, it is neither expected from conceptual models nor from Richardson numbers in the IFS. This calls for further field campaigns to investigate the role of turbulence and its implications for the meteorological understanding as well as for aviation safety.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Tropopause folds are areas where air from higher altitudes is submerged under the jet stream. These areas are important for the vertical exchange of trace gases and are known for creating aviation hazards due to enhanced turbulence. In our study, we use high‐resolution turbulence measurements from balloons to study the phenomenon. For further understanding, these observations are compared to data from weather forecast models. While we generally find a quantitative agreement between our measurements and other studies, the observed turbulence pattern is unexpected: we find turbulence strengths above the jet stream to be 1,000 times stronger than below. As conceptional models predict a strengthening of tropopause folds due to turbulence, this result has a likely influence on our understanding of the phenomenon as well as it highlights potential hazards for high flying passenger aircraft.
    Description: Key Points: High‐resolution turbulence measurements show severe (moderate) turbulence strength in deep (medium) tropopause fold. Eddy heat fluxes are found to modify potential vorticity distribution across tropopause fold comparable to other studies. Unexpectedly, in both cases dissipation rates above the jet are three orders of magnitude larger than below.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; balloon observations ; mixing ; potential vorticity ; tropopause fold ; turbulence ; upper‐level jet‐front systems
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    Evolution of convective characteristics during tropical cyclogenesis (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-20
    Description: Four idealized, high‐resolution (500 m horizontal grid spacing), numerical simulations are used to investigate the evolution of convective structures during tropical cyclogenesis. The simulations all begin with a weak initial axisymmetric cloud‐free vortex in a quiescent environment, but differ in the moisture level of the initial sounding and whether or not ice microphysical processes are considered. Irrespective of experimental setup, there is only a short period where shallow or congestus clouds dominate. The shallow cloud phase is slightly extended with the drier initial environmental sounding. The composite structure of the convective elements sampled changes markedly throughout the genesis period. For much of the genesis phase, vertical profiles of the mean convective cell show significant amounts of anticyclonic vorticity produced in cells in the inner core. Towards the end of the genesis phase, there is a large increase in the production of cyclonic vertical vorticity in inner‐core convection, and cyclonic vorticity becomes dominant at low‐mid levels. The evolution from roughly equal strength vertical profiles of cyclonic/anticyclonic vorticity at low‐mid levels to profiles where cyclonic vorticity dominates occurs at relatively low system wind speeds (Vmax less than 10 m·s−1). This finding indicates a change in the structure of vortical convection prior to rapid intensification. In outer‐core convection, there are roughly equal strength vertical vorticity dipoles produced throughout the genesis period.
    Description: Four idealized, high‐resolution (500 m horizontal grid spacing), numerical simulations are used to investigate the evolution of convective structures during tropical cyclogenesis. The composite structure of the average convective element sampled changes markedly throughout the genesis period, and towards the end of the genesis phase there is a large increase in the production of cyclonic vertical vorticity in inner‐core convection, which becomes dominant at low‐mid levels. Irrespective of microphysical scheme and environmental sounding used, there is a short period where cumulus congestus clouds dominate, that is, when the mean cloud top is between 5 and 9 km height, a finding which is at odds with a prior theory claiming that tropical cyclogenesis can be viewed as a two‐stage process in which congestus clouds have a large dynamical and thermodynamical contribution at early stages.
    Description: German Research Council (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; convection ; cyclogenesis ; hurricane ; tropical cyclone
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    Influence of Thermodynamic State Changes on Surface Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Arctic: A Comparison of Two Approaches Using Data From AFLUX and SHEBA (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: The cloud radiative forcing (CRF) quantifies the warming or cooling effects of clouds. To derive the CRF, reference values of net (downward minus upward) irradiances in cloud‐free conditions are required. There are two groups of techniques to estimate these reference values; one is based on radiative transfer modeling, and a second group uses measurements in cloud‐free situations. To compare both approaches, we first look at a case study from the airborne measurements of radiative and turbulent FLUXes of energy and momentum in the Arctic boundary layer (AFLUX) campaign, where a moving cloud field with a sharp edge separating a cloudy boundary layer from an adjacent evolving cloud‐free area was probed. These data enabled the quantification of the impact of changing atmospheric and surface properties relevant for the reference net irradiances in cloud‐free conditions. The systematically higher surface albedo below clouds compared to cloud‐free conditions, results in a 11 W·m−2 smaller shortwave cooling effect by clouds estimated from the radiative transfer approach compared to the measurement‐based one. Due to the transition of thermodynamic parameters between the cloudy and cloud‐free atmospheric states, a 20 W·m−2 stronger warming effect is estimated by the radiative transfer approach. In a second step, radiative transfer simulations based on radiosoundings from the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean campaign are used to quantify the impact of the vertical profiles of thermodynamic properties on the CRF. The largest difference between the longwave CRF estimated by the two methods is found in autumn with up to 25 W·m−2.
    Description: Key Points: Different approaches to derive the surface cloud radiative forcing (CRF) are compared using data of a case study of the AFLUX campaign. Radiative transfer‐based approaches provide a systematically stronger warming effect of clouds than observed. For Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean, atmospheric thermodynamic state changes and profile properties are identified as decisive for the respective annual cycle of longwave CRF.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; 551.5 ; cloud radiative forcing ; radiative energy budget sea ice ; thermodynamic states
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    Interleaving of oxygenized intrusions into the Baltic Sea redoxcline (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-11-03
    Description: Semi-enclosed marginal seas like the Baltic Sea are often characterized by permanently anoxic deep layers, and may therefore serve as important model systems to study the causes and consequences of the predicted global expansion of oxygen minimum zones. Here, we focus on the role of lateral intrusions in maintaining the “hypoxic transition zone” (HTZ) of the Baltic Sea, which characterizes the quasi-permanent hypoxic region located between the oxygenized surface layer and the sulfidic deep-water region. Based on long-term deployments of an autonomous profiling system in the central Baltic Sea, we show that oxic mid-water intrusions are ubiquitous features, providing the most important oxygen source for the HTZ, and largely control the vertical and lateral extent of the hypoxic areas. An oxygen budget for the HTZ suggests that oxygen turnover in the HTZ is, to first order, determined by a long-term balance between sedimentary oxygen demand and oxygen import by intrusions. The downward mixing of oxygen into the HTZ is generally non-negligible but unlikely to provide a first-order contribution to the HTZ oxygen budget. On the long-term average, mid-water intrusions were shown to inject 30–60 Gmol of oxygen per year into the deep-water region below the permanent halocline. This is approximately one order of magnitude larger than the average amount of oxygen imported during the massive deep-water inflow events (Major Baltic Inflows) that occur on an approximately decadal time scale, highlighting the HTZ as a hotspot for biogeochemical turnover.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Baltic Sea ; hydrography ; hypoxic transistion zone (HTZ) ; biogeochemical turnover
    Language: English
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    Representation of Model Error in Convective-Scale Data Assimilation: Additive Noise Based on Model Truncation Error (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: To account for model error on multiple scales in convective-scale data assimilation, we incorporate the small-scale additive noise based on random samples of model truncation error and combine it with the large-scale additive noise based on random samples from global climatological atmospheric background error covariance. A series of experiments have been executed in the framework of the operational Kilometre-scale ENsemble Data Assimilation system of the Deutscher Wetterdienst for a 2-week period with different types of synoptic forcing of convection (i.e., strong or weak forcing). It is shown that the combination of large- and small-scale additive noise is better than the application of large-scale noise only. The specific increase in the background ensemble spread during data assimilation enhances the quality of short-term 6-hr precipitation forecasts. The improvement is especially significant during the weak forcing period, since the small-scale additive noise increases the small-scale variability which may favor occurrence of convection. It is also shown that additional perturbation of vertical velocity can further advance the performance of combination.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; additive noise ; model truncation error ; multiscale ; radar data assimilation ; probabilistic forecasts
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    Increasing Resolution and Resolving Convection Improve the Simulation of Cloud-Radiative Effects Over the North Atlantic (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Clouds interact with atmospheric radiation and substantially modify the Earth's energy budget. Cloud formation processes occur over a vast range of spatial and temporal scales, which make their thorough numerical representation challenging. Therefore, the impact of parameter choices for simulations of cloud-radiative effects is assessed in the current study. Numerical experiments are carried out using the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model with varying grid spacings between 2.5 and 80 km and with different subgrid-scale parameterization approaches. Simulations are performed over the North Atlantic with either one-moment or two-moment microphysics and with convection being parameterized or explicitly resolved by grid-scale dynamics. Simulated cloud-radiative effects are compared to products derived from Meteosat measurements. Furthermore, a sophisticated cloud classification algorithm is applied to understand the differences and dependencies of simulated and observed cloud-radiative effects. The cloud classification algorithm developed for the satellite observations is also applied to the simulation output based on synthetic infrared brightness temperatures, a novel approach that is not impacted by changing insolation and guarantees a consistent and fair comparison. It is found that flux biases originate equally from clear-sky and cloudy parts of the radiation field. Simulated cloud amounts and cloud-radiative effects are dominated by marine, shallow clouds, and their behavior is highly resolution dependent. Bias compensation between shortwave and longwave flux biases, seen in the coarser simulations, is significantly diminished for higher resolutions. Based on the analysis results, it is argued that cloud-microphysical and cloud-radiative properties have to be adjusted to further improve agreement with observed cloud-radiative effects.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Cloud-Radiative Effects ; TOA Energy Budget ; High-Resolution Simulations ; Meteosat Observations ; Cloud Classification ; Bias Decomposition
    Language: English
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    The Dimmest State of the Sun (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: How the solar electromagnetic energy entering the Earth's atmosphere varied since preindustrial times is an important consideration in the climate change debate. Detrimental to this debate, estimates of the change in total solar irradiance (TSI) since the Maunder minimum, an extended period of weak solar activity preceding the industrial revolution, differ markedly, ranging from a drop of 0.75 W m−2 to a rise of 6.3 W m−2. Consequently, the exact contribution by solar forcing to the rise in global temperatures over the past centuries remains inconclusive. Adopting a novel approach based on state-of-the-art solar imagery and numerical simulations, we establish the TSI level of the Sun when it is in its least-active state to be 2.0 ± 0.7 W m−2 below the 2019 level. This means TSI could not have risen since the Maunder minimum by more than this amount, thus restricting the possible role of solar forcing in global warming.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; total solar irradiance
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    The Role of the SO 2 Radiative Effect in Sustaining the Volcanic Winter and Soothing the Toba Impact on Climate (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Volcanic eruptions are an important climate driver. The impact of Pinatubo-sized eruptions has been observed and is well constrained. The magnitude and duration of volcanic winter effects after supereruptions such as Toba remain disputed due to disagreement between the strong cooling predicted by models and much milder climate perturbations according to the paleodata. Here we present a reevaluated climate impact of a Toba-sized supereruption based on up-to-date GISS ModelE simulations. In this study, we account for all known primary mechanisms that govern the evolution of the volcanic plume and their nonlinear interactions. The SO 2 radiative effects are evaluated for the first time in coupled climate simulations with the interactive atmospheric chemistry module. We found that SO 2 effects on photochemistry, dynamics, and radiative forcing are especially prominent. Due to strong absorption in ultraviolet, SO 2 feedback on photochemistry partially offsets the limiting effect associated with aerosol microphysical processes. SO 2 greenhouse warming soothes the radiative cooling exerted by sulfate aerosols. SO 2 absorption in the shortwave and longwave causes radiative heating and lofting of the volcanic plume, and boosts the efficiency of SO 2 impact on photochemistry. Our analysis shows that SO 2 lifetime and magnitude of effects scale up and increase with the amount of emitted material. For a Pinatubo-sized eruption, SO 2 feedbacks on chemistry and dynamics are relevant only during the initial stage of the volcanic plume evolution, while local SO 2 concentrations are high. For a Toba-sized eruption, SO 2 effects are as important as sulfate aerosols and produce a less extreme volcanic winter.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; supereruption ; Toba ; volcanic winter ; sulfate aerosols ; climate impact ; sulfur dioxide
    Language: English
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    Fluctuations of the Atlantic North Equatorial Undercurrent and Associated Changes in Oxygen Transports (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Abstract Although the core velocity of the Atlantic North Equatorial Undercurrent (NEUC) is low (0.1−0.3 m s−1), it has been suggested to act as an important oxygen supply route towards the oxygen minimum zone in the eastern tropical North Atlantic. For the first time, the intraseasonal to interannual NEUC variability and its impact on oxygen are investigated based on shipboard and moored velocity observations around 5°N, 23°W. In contrast to previous studies that were mainly based on models or hydrographic data, we find hardly any seasonal cycle of NEUC transports in the central Atlantic. The NEUC transport variability is instead dominated by sporadic intraseasonal events. Only some of these events are associated with high oxygen levels suggesting an occasional eastward oxygen supply by NEUC transport events. Nevertheless, they likely contribute to the local oxygen maximum in the mean shipboard section along 23°W at the NEUC core position.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Atlantic North Equatorial Undercurrent (NEUC)
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    Competing Effects of Droplet Sedimentation and Wind Shear on Entrainment in Stratocumulus (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: The joint effect of droplet sedimentation and wind shear on cloud top entrainment in stratocumulus is investigated with direct numerical simulations. Although it is well understood that droplet sedimentation weakens entrainment while wind shear enhances entrainment, there is no consensus on the magnitude of each process. We find that the entrainment reduction by droplet sedimentation is sufficiently strong to completely compensate the entrainment enhancement by wind shear, and thus, droplet sedimentation and wind shear effects can be equally important for cloud top entrainment. For instance, for the subtropical conditions considered here, droplet sedimentation weakens entrainment by up to 40% while wind shear enhances entrainment by up to 40%. This result implies that the droplet size distribution can substantially affect cloud lifetimes not only because of its effect on rain formation but also because of its effect on cloud top entrainment, which emphasizes the need for a better characterization of droplet size distributions in stratocumulus. A second implication is that entrainment velocity parametrizations should pay equal attention to droplet sedimentation and to wind shear effects.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; stratocumulus ; entrainment ; wind shear ; droplet sedimentation ; turbulence ; evaporative cooling
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    Mapping and Understanding Patterns of Air Quality Using Satellite Data and Machine Learning (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: The quantification of factors leading to harmfully high levels of particulate matter (PM) remains challenging. This study presents a novel approach using a statistical model that is trained to predict hourly concentrations of particles smaller than 10  μm (PM10) by combining satellite-borne aerosol optical depth (AOD) with meteorological and land-use parameters. The model is shown to accurately predict PM10 (overall R 2 = 0.77, RMSE = 7.44  μg/m 3) for measurement sites in Germany. The capability of satellite observations to map and monitor surface air pollution is assessed by investigating the relationship between AOD and PM10 in the same modeling setup. Sensitivity analyses show that important drivers of modeled PM10 include multiday mean wind flow, boundary layer height (BLH), day of year (DOY), and temperature. Different mechanisms associated with elevated PM10 concentrations are identified in winter and summer. In winter, mean predictions of PM10 concentrations 〉35  μg/m 3 occur when BLH is below ∼500 m. Paired with multiday easterly wind flow, mean model predictions surpass 40  μg/m 3 of PM10. In summer, PM10 concentrations seemingly are less driven by meteorology, but by emission or chemical particle formation processes, which are not included in the model. The relationship between AOD and predicted PM10 concentrations depends to a large extent on ambient meteorological conditions. Results suggest that AOD can be used to assess air quality at ground level in a machine learning approach linking it with meteorological conditions.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; aerosol optical depth ; air quality ; PM10 ; machine learning ; drivers of air pollution ; MAIAC
    Language: English
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    Process-Based Simulation of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in a One-Dimensional Cirrus Model (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: A new microphysical cirrus model to simulate ice crystal nucleation, depositional growth, and gravitational settling is described. The model tracks individual simulation ice particles in a vertical column of air and allows moisture and heat profiles to be affected by turbulent diffusion. Ice crystal size- and supersaturation-dependent deposition coefficients are employed in a one-dimensional model framework. This enables the detailed simulation of microphysical feedbacks influencing the outcome of ice nucleation processes in cirrus. The use of spheroidal water vapor fluxes enables the prediction of primary ice crystal shapes once microscopic models describing the vapor uptake on the surfaces of cirrus ice crystals are better constrained. Two applications addressing contrail evolution and cirrus formation demonstrate the potential of the model for advanced studies of aerosol-cirrus interactions. It is shown that supersaturation in, and microphysical and optical properties of, cirrus are affected by variable deposition coefficients. Vertical variability in ice supersaturation, ice crystal sedimentation, and high turbulent diffusivity all tend to decrease homogeneously nucleated ice number mixing ratios over time, but low ice growth efficiencies counteract this tendency. Vertical mixing induces a tendency to delay the onset of homogeneous freezing. In situations of sustained large-scale cooling, natural cirrus clouds may often form in air surrounding persistent contrails.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cirrus ; cloud model ; microphysics
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    Ocean Kinetic Energy Backscatter Parametrization on Unstructured Grids: Impact on Global Eddy-Permitting Simulations (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: In this study we demonstrate the potential of a kinetic energy backscatter scheme for use in global ocean simulations. Ocean models commonly employ (bi)harmonic eddy viscosities causing excessive dissipation of kinetic energy in eddy-permitting simulations. Overdissipation not only affects the smallest resolved scales but also the generation of eddies through baroclinic instabilities, impacting the entire wave number spectrum. The backscatter scheme returns part of this overdissipated energy back into the resolved flow. We employ backscatter in the FESOM2 multiresolution ocean model with a quasi-uniform 1/4° mesh. In multidecadal ocean simulations, backscatter increases eddy activity by a factor 2 or more, moving the simulation closer to observational estimates of sea surface height variability. Moreover, mean sea surface height, temperature, and salinity biases are reduced. This amounts to a globally averaged bias reduction of around 10% for each field, which is even larger in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. However, in some regions such as the coastal Kuroshio, backscatter leads to a slight overenergizing of the flow and, in the Antarctic, to an unrealistic reduction of sea ice. Some of the bias increases can be reduced by a retuning of the model, and we suggest related adjustments to the backscatter scheme. The backscatter simulation is about 2.5 times as expensive as a simulation without backscatter. Most of the increased cost is due to a halving of the time step to accommodate higher simulated velocities.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; ocean kinetic energy backscatter ; subgrid eddy parametrization ; inverse energy cascade ; viscosity closure ; eddy-permitting resolution
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    Modeling the Microwave Emission of Snow on Arctic Sea Ice for Estimating the Uncertainty of Satellite Retrievals (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Within a rapidly changing Arctic climate system, snow on sea ice is an important climate parameter. A common method to derive snow depth on an Arctic-wide scale is based on passive microwave satellite observations. However, the uncertainties of this method are not well constrained. In this study, we estimate the influence of geophysical parameters, including ice, snow, and atmospheric properties on passive microwave snow depth retrievals using a Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation. The results are based on model simulations from the Microwave Emission Model for Layered Snowpacks, the SNOWPACK model, and from the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer model. All simulations are based on in situ observations obtained during the N-ICE2015 campaign. The average uncertainty in potential snow depth retrievals is between 11% and 19%, depending on the microwave frequencies used and increases with increasing snow depth. For lower-frequency retrievals (including 6.9 GHz), unknown snow properties are the strongest source of uncertainty while for higher-frequency retrievals (including 36.5 GHz), the contribution of ice, snow properties, and clouds is equally strong.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; snow ; remote sensing ; modeling ; Arctic
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    Importance of Surface Roughness for the Local Biogeophysical Effects of Deforestation (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: Deforestation influences surface properties such as surface roughness, resulting in changes in the surface energy balance and surface temperature. Recent studies suggest that the biogeophysical effects are dominated by changing roughness, and it remains unclear whether this can be reconciled with earlier modeling studies that highlighted the importance of a reduction of evapotranspiration in the low latitudes and a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the surface in the high latitudes. To clarify this situation, we analyze the local effects of deforestation on surface energy balance and temperature in the MPI-ESM climate model by performing three separate experiments: switching from forest to grass all surface properties, only surface albedo, and only surface roughness. We find that the locally induced changes in surface temperature are dominated by changes in surface roughness for the annual mean, the response of the diurnal amplitude, and the seasonal response to deforestation. For these three quantities, the results of the MPI-ESM lie within the range of observation-based data sets. Deforestation-induced decreases in surface roughness contribute substantially to winter cooling in the boreal regions and to decreases in evapotranspiration in the tropics. By comparing the energy balance decompositions from the three experiments, the view that roughness changes dominate the biogeophysical consequences of deforestation can be reconciled with the earlier studies highlighting the relevance of evapotranspiration.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; deforestation ; land use change ; biogeophysical effects ; local effects ; surface roughness ; surface energy balance
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    One Step at a Time: How Model Time Step Significantly Affects Convection-Permitting Simulations (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: We show that there is a strong sensitivity of cloud microphysics to model time step in idealized convection-permitting simulations using the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling model. Specifically, we found a 53% reduction in precipitation when the time step is increased from 1 to 15 s, changes to the location of precipitation and hail reaching the surface, and changes to the vertical distribution of hydrometeors. The effect of cloud condensation nuclei perturbations on precipitation also changes both magnitude and sign with the changing model time step. The sensitivity arises because of the numerical implementation of processes in the model, specifically the so-called “splitting” of the dynamics (e.g., advection and diffusion) and the parameterized physics (e.g., microphysics scheme). Calculating one step at a time (sequential-update splitting) gives a significant time step dependence because large supersaturation with respect to liquid is generated in updraft regions, which strongly affect parameterized microphysical process rates—in particular, ice nucleation. In comparison, calculating both dynamics and microphysics using the same inputs of temperature and water vapor (hybrid parallel splitting) or adding an additional saturation adjustment within the dynamics reduces the time step sensitivity of surface precipitation by limiting the supersaturation seen by the microphysics, although sensitivity to time step remains for some processes.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; convection permitting ; microphysics ; time step ; parallel splitting ; saturation adjustment ; physics-dynamics coupling
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    Detailed atmospheric ice accretion surface measurement using micro-computed tomography (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Surfaces exposed to atmospheric cold temperature and humid environments are prone to ice accretion. Airplanes, electrical power transmission cables, and wind turbines are typical examples for which icing has to be considered. The measurement of the resulting ice shapes is a challenging process. While macroscopic characteristics of the ice geometry can be observed using photography and optical scanning techniques, microscopic measurements are difficult to conduct because grooved surface partially occludes the geometry of chasms. To overcome this optical inaccessibility, we propose a method to carry out detailed high-resolution measurements of the accretion surface with micro-computed tomography. This approach provides a unique visualization of the empty spaces in the feather region. The information obtained by this technique can improve the understanding of ice accretion physics and its computational modeling.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; atmospheric icing ; ice feather ; icing wind tunnel ; micro-computed tomography
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    Oblique Gravity Wave Propagation During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Gravity waves (GWs) are important for coupling the mesosphere to the lower atmosphere during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Here, a minor SSW is internally generated in a simulation with the upper-atmosphere configuration of the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model. At a horizontal resolution of 20 km the simulation uses no GW drag parameterizations but resolves large fractions of the GW spectrum explicitly, including orographic and nonorographic sources. Consistent with previous studies, the simulated zonal-mean stratospheric warming is accompanied by zonal-mean mesospheric cooling. During the course of the SSW the mesospheric GW momentum flux (GWMF) turns from mainly westward to mainly eastward. Waves of large phase speed (40–80 m s −1) dominate the eastward GWMF during the peak phase of the warming. The GWMF is strongest along the polar night jet axis. Parameterizations of GWs usually assume straight upward propagation, but this assumption is often not satisfied. In the case studied here, a substantial amount of the GWMF is significantly displaced horizontally between the source region and the dissipation region, implying that the local impact of GWs on the mesosphere does not need to be above their local transmission through the stratosphere. The simulation produces significant vertically misaligned anomalies between the stratosphere and mesosphere. Observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder confirm the poleward tilt with height of the polar night jet and horizontal displacements between mesospheric cooling and stratospheric warming patterns. Thus, lateral GW propagation may be required to explain the middle-atmosphere temperature evolution in SSW events with significant zonally asymmetric anomalies.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Sudden Stratospheric Warming ; Gravity wave propagation ; Zonal asymmetries ; High-resolution climate model ; Microwave Limb Sounder ; Tilt of polar night jet
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    Poleward Shift of the Major Ocean Gyres Detected in a Warming Climate (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Recent evidence shows that wind-driven ocean currents, like the western boundary currents, are strongly affected by global warming. However, due to insufficient observations both on temporal and spatial scales, the impact of climate change on large-scale ocean gyres is still not clear. Here, based on satellite observations of sea surface height and sea surface temperature, we find a consistent poleward shift of the major ocean gyres. Due to strong natural variability, most of the observed ocean gyre shifts are not statistically significant, implying that natural variations may contribute to the observed trends. However, climate model simulations forced with increasing greenhouse gases suggest that the observed shift is most likely to be a response of global warming. The displacement of ocean gyres, which is coupled with the poleward shift of extratropical atmospheric circulation, has broad impacts on ocean heat transport, regional sea level rise, and coastal ocean circulation.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; ocean gyre ; climate change ; poleward shift ; global warming ; ocean circulation ; sea level rise
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    Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Arctic Ocean From a Global Simulation With a 1-km Arctic (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Simulating Arctic Ocean mesoscale eddies in ocean circulation models presents a great challenge because of their small size. This study employs an unstructured-mesh ocean-sea ice model to conduct a decadal-scale global simulation with a 1-km Arctic. It provides a basinwide overview of Arctic eddy energetics. Increasing model resolution from 4 to 1 km increases Arctic eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and total kinetic energy (TKE) by about 40% and 15%, respectively. EKE is the highest along main currents over topography slopes, where strong conversion from available potential energy to EKE takes place. It is high in halocline with a maximum typically centered in the depth range of 70–110 m, and in the Atlantic Water layer of the Eurasian Basin as well. The seasonal variability of EKE along the continental slopes of southern Canada and eastern Eurasian basins is similar, stronger in fall and weaker in spring.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Arctic Ocean ; mesoscale eddies ; eddy kinetic energy ; baroclinic instability
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    Large-Amplitude Quasi-10-Day Waves in the Middle Atmosphere During Final Warmings (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Geopotential height measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder between 9- and 97-km altitudes during 2004–2018 are used to examine long-period (3–20 days) wave activity during the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring, with the primary focus on the response of normal mode Rossby waves in the middle atmosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Unusually large westward propagating waves with Zonal Wave Number 1 and period ∼10 days are observed at 55° latitude at the stratopause height (∼48 km) and above following final warmings of 2016, 2015, and 2005. In each case, large-amplitude waves are observed for the duration of two to three wave cycles. Characteristics of the waves are in conformity with the second antisymmetric Rossby normal mode of Zonal Wave Number 1, or the quasi-10-day wave. The growth rate of the waves is significantly greater than the classical normal mode in the upper stratosphere (approximately 30–50 km) where instability conditions are met, indicating the amplification or excitation of the waves in that region. The response of the quasi-10-day wave during midwinter SSWs, and also during the spring transition without an SSW, is not as obvious as the wave response during final warmings. The results suggest that not only the occurrence of SSW but also the seasonal timing of SSW is an important factor for the transient variability of the quasi-10-day wave in the middle atmosphere.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; sudden stratospheric warming ; Rossby waves ; planetary waves ; quasi-10-day wave ; stratosphere ; mesosphere
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    Decomposing Barotropic Transport Variability in a High-Resolution Model of the North Atlantic Ocean (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: A method using a linear shallow water model is presented for decomposing the temporal variability of the barotropic stream function in a high-resolution ocean model. The method is based on the vertically averaged momentum equations and is applied to the time series of annual mean stream function from the model configuration VIKING20 for the northern North Atlantic. An important result is the role played by the nonlinear advection terms in VIKING20 for driving transport. The method is illustrated by examining how the Gulf Stream transport in the recirculation region responds to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While no statistically significant response is found in the year overlapping with the winter NAO index, there is a tendency for the Gulf Stream transport to increase as the NAO becomes more positive. This becomes significant in lead years 1 and 2 when the mean flow advection and eddy momentum flux contributions, associated with nonlinear momentum advection, dominate. Only after 2 years, does the potential energy term, associated with the density field, start to play a role and it is only after 5 years that the transport dependence on the NAO ceases to be significant. It is also shown that the potential energy contribution to the transport stream function has significant memory of up to 5 years in the Labrador and Irminger Seas. However, it is only around the northern rim of these seas that VIKING20 and the transport reconstruction exhibit similar memory. This is due to masking by the mean flow advection and eddy momentum flux contributions.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; North Atlantic ; transport variability ; high-resolution model
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    Global Assimilation of Ocean-Color Data of Phytoplankton Functional Types: Impact of Different Data Sets (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Phytoplankton functional-type (PFT) data are assimilated into the global coupled ocean-ecosystem model MITgcm-REcoM2 for two years using a local ensemble Kalman filter. The ecosystem model has two PFTs: small phytoplankton (SP) and diatoms. Three different sets of satellite PFT data are assimilated: Ocean-Color-Phytoplankton Functional Type (OC-PFT), Phytoplankton Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (PhytoDOAS), and SYNergistic exploitation of hyper- and multi-spectral precursor SENtinel measurements to determine Phytoplankton Functional Types (SynSenPFT), which is a synergistic product combining the independent PFT products OC-PFT and PhytoDOAS. The effect of assimilating PFT data is compared with the assimilation of total chlorophyll data (TChla), which constrains both PFTs through multivariate assimilation. While the assimilation of TChla already improves both PFTs, the assimilation of PFT data further improves the representation of the phytoplankton community. The effect is particularly large for diatoms where, compared to the assimilation of TChla, the SynSenPFT assimilation results in 57% and 67% reduction of root-mean-square error and bias, respectively, while the correlation is increased from 0.45 to 0.54. For SP the assimilation of SynSenPFT data reduces the root-mean-square error and bias by 14% each and increases the correlation by 30%. The separate assimilation of the PFT data products OC-PFT, SynSenPFT, and joint assimilation of OC-PFT and PhytoDOAS data leads to similar results while the assimilation of PhytoDOAS data alone leads to deteriorated SP but improved diatoms. When both OC-PFT and PhytoDOAS data are jointly assimilated, the representation of diatoms is improved compared to the assimilation of only OC-PFT. The results show slightly lower errors than when the synergistic SynSenPFT data are assimilated, which shows that the assimilation successfully combines the separate data sources.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; PFT ; Data assimilation ; ecosystem model ; satellite data ; phytoplankton community ; joint assimilation
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    M2 Internal-Tide Generation in STORMTIDE2 (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Internal-tide generation has been quantified using both pressure work and energy conversion. When calculating the pressure work from simulated or observed data, the internal-tide pressure has to be decomposed from the full pressure, for which various options exist. We show that the conversion, that has to be derived from the depth-integrated energy equations, contains the work done by both the form drag at the bottom and that at the surface, with the latter being about 1% of the former. For calculating the pressure work, the internal-tide pressure identified as the deviation from the depth-averaged pressure perturbation has to be used. We analyzed the work done by the bottom form drag in STORMTIDE2, a concurrent simulation of circulations and tides. As expected, the identified internal-tide pressure reveals the characteristic pressure drop from the windward to the leeward side of an obstacle. The M2 internal-tide generation in STORMTIDE2 is more strongly controlled by the barotropic tide than by the topographic slope, partly because the tidal velocity can change up to one order of magnitude from the top to the foot of a high ridge within a short distance, a feature only produced by a high-resolution model. Consequently, the intense generation maps the immediate proximities of the summits of high ridges, making the global generation to be strongest near 1,200 m and decreasing drastically below 3,000 m. The depth structure of the generation differs in different basins, which could impact differently on circulations in different basins.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; internal-tide generation ; high-resolution ocean modelling ; work done by a form drag ; conversion rate ; internal-tide pressure ; barotropic tidal velocity
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    Assimilating synthetic land surface temperature in a coupled land–atmosphere model (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: A realistic simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) depends on an accurate representation of the land–atmosphere coupling. Land surface temperature (LST) plays an important role in this context and the assimilation of LST can lead to improved estimates of the boundary layer and its processes. We assimilated synthetic satellite LST retrievals derived from a nature run as truth into a fully coupled, state-of-the-art land–atmosphere numeric weather prediction model. As assimilation system a local ensemble transform Kalman filter was used and the control vector was augmented by the soil temperature and humidity. To evaluate the concept of the augmented control vector, two-day case-studies with different control vector settings were conducted for clear-sky periods in March and August 2017. These experiments with hourly LST assimilation were validated against the nature run and overall, the RMSE of atmospheric and soil temperature of the first-guess (and analysis) were reduced. The temperature estimate of the ABL was particularly improved during daytime as was the estimate of the soil temperature during the whole diurnal cycle. The best impact of LST assimilation on the soil and the ABL was achieved with the augmented control vector. Through the coupling between the soil and the atmosphere, the assimilation of LST can have a positive impact on the temperature forecast of the ABL even after 15 hr because of the memory of the soil. These encouraging results motivate further work towards the assimilation of real satellite LST retrievals.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; data assimilation ; land–atmosphere coupling ; land surface temperature ; LETKF
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    Evolution of an Atmospheric Kármán Vortex Street From High-Resolution Satellite Winds: Guadalupe Island Case Study (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Vortex streets formed in the stratocumulus-capped wake of mountainous islands are the atmospheric analogues of the classic Kármán vortex street observed in laboratory flows past bluff bodies. The quantitative analysis of these mesoscale unsteady atmospheric flows has been hampered by the lack of satellite wind retrievals of sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. Taking advantage of the cutting-edge Advanced Baseline Imager, we derived kilometer-scale cloud-motion winds at 5-min frequency for a vortex street in the lee of Guadalupe Island imaged by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16. Combined with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data, the geostationary imagery also provided accurate stereo cloud-top heights. The time series of geostationary winds, supplemented with snapshots of ocean surface winds from the Advanced Scatterometer, allowed us to capture the wake oscillations and measure vortex shedding dynamics. The retrievals revealed a markedly asymmetric vortex decay, with cyclonic eddies having larger peak vorticities than anticyclonic eddies at the same downstream location. Drawing on the vast knowledge accumulated about laboratory bluff body flows, we argue that the asymmetric island wake arises from the combined effects of Earth's rotation and Guadalupe's nonaxisymmetric shape resembling an inclined flat plate at low angle of attack. However, numerical simulations will need to establish whether or not the selective destabilization of the shallow atmospheric anticyclonic eddies is caused by the same mechanisms that destabilize the deep columnar anticyclones of laboratory flows, such as three-dimensional vertical perturbations due to centrifugal or elliptical instabilities.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cloud-motion winds ; vortex street ; GOES-R ; ASCAT ; Karman ; satellite winds
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    A weather system perspective on winter–spring rainfall variability in southeastern Australia during El Niño (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: The El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is typically associated with below-average cool-season rainfall in southeastern Australia (SEA). However, there is also large case-to-case variability on monthly time-scales. Despite recent progress in understanding the links between remote climate drivers and this variability, the underlying dynamical processes are not fully understood. This reanalysis-based study aims to advance the dynamical understanding by quantifying the contribution of midlatitude weather systems to monthly precipitation anomalies over SEA during the austral winter–spring season. A k-means clustering reveals four rainfall anomaly patterns with above-average rainfall (Cluster 1), below-average rainfall (Cluster 2), above-average rainfall along the East Coast (Cluster 3) and along the South Coast (Cluster 4). Cluster 2 occurs most frequently during El Niño, which highlights the general suppression of SEA rainfall during these events. However, the remaining three clusters with local above-average rainfall are found in ∼52% of all El Niño months. Changes of weather system frequency determine the respective rainfall anomaly pattern. Results indicate significantly more cut-off lows and warm conveyor belts (WCBs) over SEA in El Niño Cluster 1 and significantly fewer in El Niño Cluster 2. In El Niño Cluster 3, enhanced blocking south of Australia favours cut-off lows leading to increased rainfall along the East Coast. Positive rainfall anomalies along the South Coast in El Niño Cluster 4 are associated with frontal rainfall due to an equatorward shift of the midlatitude storm track. Most of the rainfall is produced by WCBs and cut-off lows but the contributions strongly vary between the clusters. In all clusters, rainfall anomalies result from changes in rainfall frequency more than in rainfall intensity. Backward trajectories of WCB and cut-off low rainfall highlight the importance of moist air masses from the Coral Sea and the northwest coast of Australia during wet months.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; backward trajectories ; clustering ; El Niño ; rainfall decomposition ; rainfall origin ; rainfall variability ; southeastern Australia ; synoptic weather systems
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    Stand-Alone Eastern Pacific Coastal Warming Events (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: A pronounced warm anomaly occurred at the Peruvian coast in early 2017. This “Coastal Niño” caused heavy rainfalls, leading to flooding in Peru and Ecuador. At the same time, neutral conditions prevailed in the equatorial Pacific. Using observational sea surface temperature data sets and an ocean reanalysis product for the time period 1900 to 2010, previous similar events are investigated. Eighteen coastal warming events without corresponding equatorial Pacific warming are identified. Further analysis shows, however, that only four of these events are not connected to the central equatorial Pacific. All other periods of strong coastal warm anomalies are directly followed or preceded by El Niño-like conditions. The “stand-alone” coastal warming events are characterized by comparatively low equatorial heat content. We thus hypothesize that the depleted heat content in the equatorial Pacific in the wake of the strong 2015/2016 El Niño prevented the warming to spread westward in 2017.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; El Nino ; Coastal Warming ; Tropical Pacific
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    Evaporation Study Based on Micromodel Experiments: Comparison of Theory and Experiment (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: Abstract Evaporation—a key process for water exchange between soil and atmosphere—is controlled by internal water fluxes and surface vapor fluxes. Recent studies demonstrated that the dynamics of the water flow in corners determine the time behavior of the evaporation rate. The internal water flux of the porous media is often described by capillary flow assuming complete wetting. Particularly, the crucial influence of partial wetting, that is, the nonlinear contact angle dependency of the capillary flow has been neglected so far. The focus of the paper is to demonstrate that SiO2-surfaces can exhibit contact angles of about 40°. This reduces the internal capillary flow by 1 order of magnitude compared to complete wetting. First, we derived the contact angle by inverse modeling. We conducted a series of evaporation experiments in a 2-D square lattice microstructure connected by lognormal distributed throats. We used an explicit analytical power series solution of the single square capillary model. A contact angle of 38° ± 1° was derived. Second, we directly measured the contact angle of the Si-SiO2 wafer using the Drop Shape Analyzer Krüss 100 and obtained an averaged contact angle of 42° ± 2°. The results support the single square capillary model as an appropriate model for the description of the evaporation process in an ideal square capillary.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; 551.5 ; evaporation ; experiments
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    Long-Term Wetting and Drying Trends in Land Water Storage Derived From GRACE and CMIP5 Models (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: Coupled climate models participating in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) exhibit a large intermodel spread in the representation of long-term trends in soil moisture and snow in response to anthropogenic climate change. We evaluate long-term (January 1861 to December 2099) water storage trends from 21 CMIP5 models against observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) obtained from 14 years (April 2002 to August 2016) of the GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellite mission. This is complicated due to the incomplete representation of TWS in CMIP5 models and interannual climate variability masking long-term trends in observations. We thus evaluate first the spread in projected trends among CMIP5 models and identify regions of broad model consensus. Second, we assess the extent to which these projected trends are already present during the historical period (January 1861 to August 2016) and thus potentially detectable in observational records available today. Third, we quantify the degree to which 14-year tendencies can be expected to represent long-term trends, finding that regional long-term trends start to emerge from interannual variations after just 14 years while stable global trend patterns are detectable after 30 years. We classify regions of strong model consensus into areas where (1) climate-related TWS changes are supported by the direction of GRACE trends, (2) mismatch of trends hints at possible model deficits, (3) the short observation time span and/or anthropogenic influences prevent reliable conclusions about long-term wetting or drying. We thereby demonstrate the value of satellite observations of water storage to further constrain the response of the terrestrial water cycle to climate change.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; GRACE ; CMIP5 ; water storage trends
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    A Spectrally Consistent Globally Defined Geodetic Mean Dynamic Ocean Topography (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: The space-borne geodetic temporal mean dynamic topography (MDT) is obtained from the difference of altimetric mean sea surface (MSS) h and the geoid height N. With the geostrophic surface currents obtained from its gradient, the MDT is an essential parameter when describing the ocean dynamics. Spectral consistency of h and N is crucial to minimize MDT errors. Frequently, h is globalized to allow for a spherical harmonic analysis, and small scales beyond maximum degree and order (d/o) resolved in the geoid are cut off. However, common globalization causes ocean-land steps in h−N and spectral inconsistencies of N and h over land. To overcome both issues, a methodology is proposed based on globalization of the MDT. A Laplacian smoother with the coastal MDT values as boundary condition is applied, resulting in a smooth surface over land and a continuous ocean-land transition. The new methodology strongly reduces Gibbs effects and the need to work with high-resolution MDTs to minimize them. Reduction of resolution is tested to reduce MDT uncertainties caused by the commission error expected to increase with decreasing scale. Applying drifter data and a high-resolution hydrodynamic ocean model, it is shown that for the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio, geodetic MDTs applying recent combined geoid models contain physical information up to at least d/o 420 (48-km spatial scale). For oceanic regions with strong geoid gradients, a higher-resolution MDT might be needed to prevent Gibbs effects caused by remaining inconsistencies between the geoid and the MSS.
    Keywords: 526.1 ; 551.46 ; Mean Dynamic Topograhy ; altimetry ; geoid ; spectral consistency ; Gibbs effect
    Language: English
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    Energetically consistent scale-adaptive stochastic and deterministic energy backscatter schemes for an atmospheric model (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: Current climate models still suffer from many biases which are partly due to excessive subgrid-scale dissipation. Here we systematically develop energetically consistent stochastic energy backscatter (SEB) and deterministic energy backscatter (DEB) parametrization schemes. We implement our schemes in a simplified spectral atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). It is shown that the SEB scheme performs better than the DEB scheme at low horizontal resolutions (T21 and T31), whereas the performance of both schemes becomes comparable as the resolution increases to T42 when comparing with our reference simulation at T127 resolution. The energy backscatter parametrization schemes improve eddy variability in low-resolution models and correctly capture the dominant mode of zonal-mean zonal wind variability. The autocorrelation time-scale of low-resolution models is also found to be more consistent with the reference simulation when applying the SEB and DEB parametrizations. Our schemes are scale-adaptive and computationally efficient.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; atmospheric models ; deterministic backscatter scheme ; energy consistent parametrizations ; scale-adaptive parametrizations ; stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme
    Language: English
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    The Atlantic Subtropical Cells Inferred from Observations (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: The Atlantic Subtropical Cells (STCs) are shallow wind-driven overturning circulations connecting the tropical upwelling areas to the subtropical subduction regions. In both hemispheres, they are characterized by equatorward transport at thermocline level, upwelling at the equator, and poleward Ekman transport in the surface layer. This study uses recent data from Argo floats complemented by ship sections at the western boundary as well as reanalysis products to estimate the meridional water mass transports and to investigate the vertical and horizontal structure of the STCs from an observational perspective. The seasonally varying depth of meridional velocity reversal is used as the interface between the surface poleward flow and the thermocline equatorward flow. The latter is bounded by the 26.0 kg m−3 isopycnal at depth. We find that the thermocline layer convergence is dominated by the southern hemisphere water mass transport (9.0 ± 1.1 Sv from the southern hemisphere compared to 2.9 ± 1.3 Sv from the northern hemisphere) and that this transport is mostly confined to the western boundary. Compared to the asymmetric convergence at thermocline level, the wind-driven Ekman divergence in the surface layer is more symmetric, being 20.4 ± 3.1 Sv between 10°N and 10°S. The net poleward transports (Ekman minus geostrophy) in the surface layer concur with values derived from reanalysis data (5.5 ± 0.8 Sv at 10°S and 6.4 ± 1.4 Sv at 10°N). A diapycnal transport of about 3 Sv across the 26.0 kg m−3 isopycnal is required in order to maintain the mass balance of the STC circulation.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Atlantic Subtropical Cells ; wind-driven overturning circulations
    Language: English
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    TICON: TIdal CONstants based on GESLA sea-level records from globally located tide gauges (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: The TICON (TIdal CONstants) dataset contains harmonic constants of 40 tidal constituents computed for 1,145 tide gauges distributed globally. The tidal estimations are based on publicly available sea level records of the second version of the Global Extreme Sea Level Analysis (GESLA) project and were derived through a least squares-based harmonic analysis on the single time series. A preliminary screening was performed on all records to exclude doubtful observations. Only the records containing more than 70% of valid measurements were processed, that correspond to 89.7% of the total 1,276 original public GESLA records. The results are stored in a text file, and include additional information on the position of the stations, the starting and ending years of the analysed record, the estimated error of the fit, a code that corresponds to the source of the record and additional information on the single time series. In ocean tide models, data from in situ stations are used for validation purposes, and TICON is a useful and easy-to-handle data set that allows the users to select the records according to different criteria most suitable for their purposes. The data are provided with DOI identification in the PANGAEA repository.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; GESLA ; tide gauge ; tides
    Language: English
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    Mesoscale Eddies Observed at the Denmark Strait Sill (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: The Denmark Strait overflow is the major export route of dense water from the Arctic Mediterranean into the North Atlantic. At the Strait's shallow sill, the overflow is a bottom-intensified cold and dense plume, bound to the east by a thermal front formed with the warmer, northward flowing North Icelandic Irminger Current. More than two decades of observations at the sill show strong fluctuations of volume flux on daily time scales. To better understand the source of this variability, a five-mooring array was installed at the sill, capturing nearly 1 year of velocity and bottom temperature measurements at a high temporal and spatial resolution. Bottom temperature fluctuations that exceed 4 °C indicate a meandering of the front between the plume and the North Icelandic Irminger Current. Current vector rotation shows trains of alternating cyclones and anticyclones at the sill. An eddy crosses the sill every 3 to 6 days with a mean velocity of 0.4 m/s and a typical diameter of 30 to 40 km. The results suggest that anticyclones, with centers passing through the deepest part of the sill, may be responsible for periods of increased volume flux—also referred to as boluses and pulses in previous studies. Although the relationship between eddies, pulses, and boluses is still unclear, the results show that eddies are directly linked to fluctuations in the strength, thickness, and position of the overflow plume.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; mesoscale variability ; eddies ; Denmark Strait
    Language: English
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    Exceptionally Warm and Prolonged Flow of Warm Deep Water Toward the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in 2017 (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, fringing the southern Weddell Sea, is Antarctica's second largest ice shelf. At present, basal melt rates are low due to active dense water formation; however, model projections suggest a drastic increase in the future due to enhanced inflow of open-ocean warm water. Mooring observations from 2014 to 2016 along the eastern flank of the Filchner Trough (76°S) revealed a distinct seasonal cycle with inflow if Warm Deep Water during summer and autumn. Here we present extended time series showing an exceptionally warm and long inflow in 2017, with maximum temperatures exceeding 0.5°C. Warm temperatures persisted throughout winter, associated with a fresh anomaly, which lead to a change in stratification over the shelf, favoring an earlier inflow in the following summer. We suggest that the fresh anomaly developed upstream after anomalous summer sea ice melting and contributed to a shoaling of the shelf break thermocline.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; ocean-ice shelf interaction ; Weddell Sea ; warm inflow ; Antarctic Slope Front ; Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf
    Language: English
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    Coherent Seasonal Acceleration of the Weddell Sea Boundary Current System Driven by Upstream Winds (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: The Weddell Sea is of global importance in the formation of dense bottom waters associated with sea ice formation and ocean-ice sheet interaction occurring on the shelf areas. In this context, the Weddell Sea boundary current system (BCS) presents a major conduit for transporting relatively warm water to the Weddell Sea ice shelves and for exporting some modified form of Wedell Sea deep and bottom waters into the open ocean. This study investigates the downstream evolution of the structure and the seasonality of the BCS along the Weddell Sea continental slope, combining ocean data collected for the past two decades at three study locations. The interannual-mean geostrophic flow, which follows planetary potential vorticity contours, shifts from being surface intensified to bottom intensified along stream. The shift occurs due to the densification of water masses and the decreasing surface stress that occurs westward, toward the Antarctic Peninsula. A coherent along-slope seasonal acceleration of the barotropic flow exists, with maximum speed in austral autumn and minimum speed in austral summer. The barotropic flow significantly contributes to the seasonal variability in bottom velocity along the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. Our analysis suggests that the winds on the eastern/northeastern side of the gyre determines the seasonal acceleration of the barotropic flow. In turn, they might control the export of Weddell Sea Bottom Water on seasonal time scales. The processes controlling the baroclinic seasonality of the flow need further investigation.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Southern Ocean ; Weddell Sea ; Antarctic slope current ; surface stress ; flow strength ; teleconnection
    Language: English
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    Reconciling Canopy Interception Parameterization and Rainfall Forcing Frequency in the Community Land Model for Simulating Evapotranspiration of Rainforests and Oil Palm Plantations in Indonesia (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: By mediating evapotranspiration processes, plant canopies play an important role in the terrestrial water cycle and regional climate. Substantial uncertainties exist in modeling canopy water interception and related hydrological processes due to rainfall forcing frequency selection and varying canopy traits. Here we design a new time interpolation method “zero” to better represent convective-type precipitation in tropical regions. We also implement and recalibrate plant functional type-specific interception parameters for rainforests and oil palm plantations, where oil palms express higher water interception capacity than forests, using the Community Land Model (CLM) versions 4.5 and 5.0 with CLM-Palm embedded. Reconciling the interception scheme with realistic precipitation forcing produces more accurate canopy evaporation and transpiration for both plant functional types, which in turn improves simulated evapotranspiration and energy partitioning when benchmarked against observations from our study sites in Indonesia and an extensive literature review. Regional simulations for Sumatra and Kalimantan show that industrial oil palm plantations have 18–27% higher transpiration and 15–20% higher evapotranspiration than forests on an annual regional average basis across different ages or successional stages, even though the forests experience higher average precipitation according to reanalysis data. Our land-only modeling results indicate that current oil palm plantations in Sumatra and Kalimantan use 15–20% more water (mean 220 mm or 20 Gt) per year compared to lowland rainforests of the same extent. The extra water use by oil palm reduces soil moisture and runoff that could affect ecosystem services such as productivity of staple crops and availability of drinking water in rural areas.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; canopy interception ; forcing frequency ; evapotranspiration ; Community Land Model ; land use change ; oil palm
    Language: English
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    Ice Particle Properties Inferred From Aggregation Modelling (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: We generated a large number 105,000 of aggregates composed of various monomer types and sizes using an aggregation model. Combined with hydrodynamic theory, we derived ice particle properties such as mass, projected area, and terminal velocity as a function of monomer number and size. This particle ensemble allows us to study the relation of particle properties with a high level of detail which is often not provided by in situ measurements. The ice particle properties change rather smoothly with monomer number. We find very little differences in all particle properties between monomers and aggregates at sizes below 1 mm which is in contrast to many microphysics schemes. The impact of the monomer type on the particle properties decreases with increasing monomer number. Whether, for example, the terminal velocity of an aggregate is larger or smaller than an equal-size monomer depends mostly on the monomer type. We fitted commonly used power laws as well as Atlas-type relations, which represent the saturation of the terminal velocity at large sizes (terminal velocity asymptotically approaching a limiting value) to the data set and tested the impact of incorporating different levels of complexity with idealized simulations using a 1D Lagrangian super particle model. These simulations indicate that it is sufficient to represent the monomer number dependency of ice particle properties with only two categories (monomers and aggregates). The incorporation of the saturation velocity at larger sizes is found to be important to avoid an overestimation of self-aggregation of larger snowflakes.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; 550.724 ; agreggation modeling ; cloud microphysics ; ice particle properties ; Lagrangian modeling ; terminal velocity
    Language: English
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    Neighboring Column Approximation—An Improved 3D Thermal Radiative Transfer Approximation for Non-Rectangular Grids (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: We present a significantly improved version of the Neighboring Column Approximation (NCA 2.0), a fast 3D approximation for the calculation of thermal heating and cooling rates in cloudy atmospheres for large eddy simulation models. The method can now be used on non-rectangular grids, and the heating rate bias in cloudy atmospheres is substantially reduced compared to a 1D solution and the original version of the NCA (NCA 1.0). For different cloud fields the bias is in the range of −5–30% in the 1D case and −2–7% for the NCA 2.0. The calculation of 3D radiative transfer quantities requires horizontal transport of radiation which causes difficulties in the parallelization of numerical models and is computationally expensive. The NCA overcomes this problem and can calculate 3D thermal heating rates at the expense of only a factor 1.5 to 2 higher compared to a 1D radiative transfer approximation. The method uses the fluxes calculated by a 1D radiation scheme and estimates horizontal fluxes using results from neighboring columns. For the estimation of the heating rates from the before estimated fluxes pre-calculated lookup tables of emissivities are used. For the calculation of the heating rates we neglect scattering (independent of the fact if the incoming fluxes consider scattering or not). Inconsistencies made by assumptions for the method are corrected by a correction factor.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; 3D Radiative Transfer ; Radiative Transfer Approximation ; LES
    Language: English
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    Circulation and Thermohaline Variability of the Hanna Shoal Region on the Northeastern Chukchi Sea Shelf (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-24
    Description: We analyzed velocity and hydrographic data from 23 moorings in the northeast Chukchi Sea from 2011 to 2014. In most years the eastern side of Hanna Shoal was strongly stratified year-round, while weakly stratified regions prevailed on the shelf south and west of the Shoal. Stratification differences cause differential vertical mixing rates, which in conjunction with advection of different bottom water properties resulted in seasonally varying along-isobath density gradients. In agreement with numerical models, we find that bottom waters flow anticyclonically around the Shoal. Whereas most of the shelf responded barotropically to wind-forcing, there was a strong baroclinic component to the flow field northeast of Hanna Shoal, resulting in no net vertically integrated transport on average. In contrast there is a net eastward transport from west of the Shoal, which implies convergence north of the Shoal. Convergence and along-isobath density gradients may foster cross-shelf exchange north of Hanna Shoal. Modal analyses indicate that the shelf south of the Shoal and Barrow Canyon responded coherently to local and remote winds, whereas the wind-current response around Hanna Shoal was less coherent. Barotropic topographic waves, of ~3-day period, were generated episodically northeast of the Shoal and propagate clockwise around Hanna Shoal, but are blocked from entering Barrow Canyon and are possibly scattered by the horizontally sheared flow and converging isobaths on the western side of the Shoal. Analysis of water properties on the western side of Hanna Shoal suggests that these include contributions from the western and southern portions of the Chukchi Sea.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; physical oceanography ; Chukchi Sea ; Hanna Shoal
    Language: English
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