ALBERT

Description: Space weather driven atmospheric density variations affect low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites during all phases of their operational lifetime. Rocket launches, re-entry events and space debris are also similarly affected. A better understanding of space weather processes and their impact on atmospheric density is thus critical for satellite operations as well as for safety issues. The Horizon 2020 project Space Weather Atmosphere Model and Indices (SWAMI) project, which started in January 2018, aims to enhance this understanding by: •    Developing improved neutral atmosphere and thermosphere models, and combining these models to produce a new whole atmosphere model •    Developing new geomagnetic activity indices with higher time cadence to enable better representation of thermospheric variability in the models,  and improving the forecast of these indices The project stands out by providing an integrated approach to the satellite neutral environment, in which the main space weather drivers are addressed together with model improvement. The outcomes of SWAMI will provide a pathway to improved space weather services as the project will not only address the science issues, but also the transition of models into operational services. The project aims to develop a unique new whole atmosphere model, by extending and blending the Unified Model (UM), which is the Met Office weather and climate model, and the Drag Temperature Model (DTM), which is a semi-empirical model which covers the 120-1500 km altitude range. A user-focused operational tool for satellite applications shall be developed based on this. In addition, improved geomagnetic indices shall be developed and shall be used in the UM and DTM for enhanced nowcast and forecast capability. In this paper, we report on progress with SWAMI to date. The UM has been extended from its original upper boundary of 85 km to run stably and accurately with a 135 km lid. Developments to the UM radiation scheme to enable accurate performance in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere are described. These include addition of non-local thermodynamic equilibrium effects and extension to include the far ultraviolet and extreme ultraviolet. DTM has been re-developed using a more accurate neutral density observation database than has been used in the past. In addition, we describe an algorithm to develop a new version of DTM driven by geomagnetic indices with a 60 minute cadence (denoted Hp60) rather than 3-hourly Kp indices (and corresponding ap indices). The development of the Hp60 index, and the Hp30 and Hp90 indices, which are similar to Hp60 but with 30 minute and 90 minute cadences, respectively, is described, as is the development and testing of neural network and other machine learning methods applied to the forecast of geomagnetic indices.

Description: We investigate the relationship of the thermospheric density anomaly (ρrel) with the neutral zonal wind velocity (Uzonal), large-scale field-aligned current (FAC), small-scale FAC, and electron temperature (Te) using the superposed epoch analysis (SEA) method in the cusp region. The dependence of these variables on the sign of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) By component and local season is of particular interest. Also, the conditions that lead to larger relative density enhancements are investigated. Our results are based on CHAMP satellite data and OMNI online data of IMF for solar maximum (March 2002–March 2007) and minimum (March 2004–March 2009) conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. In the cusp region the SEA technique uses the time and location of the mass density anomaly peaks as reference parameters. On average, the amplitude of the relative density anomaly, ρrel, does not depend on the solar cycle phase, local season, and IMF By sign. Also, it is apparent that the amplitude of IMF By does not have a large influence on ρrel, while the negative IMF Bz amplitude prevailing about half an hour earlier is in good correlation with ρrel. Both the zonal wind velocity and the large-scale FAC (LSFAC) distribution exhibit a clear dependence on the IMF By sign. Uzonal is directed towards dawn for both positive and negative IMF By at all local seasons and for solar maximum and minimum conditions. There is a systematic imbalance between downward (upward) and upward (downward) large-scale FACs peaks equatorward and poleward of the reference point, respectively, for the IMF By+ (By−) case. Relative density enhancements appear halfway between region 1 and region 0 currents in closer proximity to the upward FAC region. FAC densities and mass density anomaly amplitudes are not well correlated, but it is apparent that there is a close spatial relationship between ρrel and LSFAC. At this point we cannot offer any simple functional relation between these two variables, because there seem to be additional quantities controlling this relation.

Description: We present in a statistical study a comparison of thermospheric mass density enhancements (ρrel) with electron temperature (Te), small-scale field-aligned currents (SSFACs), and vertical ion velocity (Vz) at high latitudes around noon magnetic local time (MLT). Satellite data from CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload) and DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) sampling the Northern Hemisphere during the years 2002–2005 are used. In a first step we investigate the distribution of the measured quantities in a magnetic latitude (MLat) versus MLT frame. All considered variables exhibit prominent peak amplitudes in the cusp region. A superposed epoch analysis was performed to examine causal relationship between the quantities. The occurrence of a thermospheric relative mass density anomaly, ρrel 〉1.2, in the cusp region is defining an event. The location of the density peak is taken as a reference latitude (Δ MLat = 0°). Interestingly, all the considered quantities, SSFACs, Te, and Vz are co-located with the density anomaly. The amplitudes of the peaks exhibit different characters of seasonal variation. The average relative density enhancement of the more prominent density peaks considered in this study amounts to 1.33 during all seasons. As expected, SSFACs are largest in summer with average amplitudes equal to 2.56 μA m−2, decaying to 2.00 μA m−2 in winter. The event related enhancements of Te and Vz are both largest in winter (Δ Te =730 K, Vz =136 m s−1) and smallest in summer (Δ Te = 377 K, Vz = 57 m s−1. Based on the similarity of the seasonal behaviour we suggest a close relationship between these two quantities. A correlation analysis supports a linear relation with a high coefficient greater than or equal to 0.93, irrespective of season. Our preferred explanation is that dayside reconnection fuels Joule heating of the thermosphere causing air upwelling and at the same time heating of the electron gas that pulls up ions along affected flux tubes.

Description: An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6‐day variations in the dayside low‐latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode “quasi‐6‐day wave” (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30–40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere.

Description: An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6-day variations in the dayside low-latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode “quasi-6-day wave” (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30–40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere.

Description: We present in a statistical study a comparison of thermospheric mass density enhancements (ρrel) with electron temperature (Te), small-scale field-aligned currents (SSFACs), and vertical ion velocity (Vz) at high latitudes around noon magnetic local time (MLT). Satellite data from CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload) and DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) sampling the Northern Hemisphere during the years 2002–2005 are used. In a first step we investigate the distribution of the measured quantities in a magnetic latitude (MLat) versus MLT frame. All considered variables exhibit prominent peak amplitudes in the cusp region. A superposed epoch analysis was performed to examine causal relationship between the quantities. The occurrence of a thermospheric relative mass density anomaly, ρrel 〉1.2, in the cusp region is defining an event. The location of the density peak is taken as a reference latitude (Δ MLat = 0°). Interestingly, all the considered quantities, SSFACs, Te, and Vz are co-located with the density anomaly. The amplitudes of the peaks exhibit different characters of seasonal variation. The average relative density enhancement of the more prominent density peaks considered in this study amounts to 1.33 during all seasons. As expected, SSFACs are largest in summer with average amplitudes equal to 2.56 μA m−2, decaying to 2.00 μA m−2 in winter. The event related enhancements of Te and Vz are both largest in winter (Δ Te =730 K, Vz =136 m s−1) and smallest in summer (Δ Te = 377 K, Vz = 57 m s−1. Based on the similarity of the seasonal behaviour we suggest a close relationship between these two quantities. A correlation analysis supports a linear relation with a high coefficient greater than or equal to 0.93, irrespective of season. Our preferred explanation is that dayside reconnection fuels Joule heating of the thermosphere causing air upwelling and at the same time heating of the electron gas that pulls up ions along affected flux tubes.