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  • 1
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    Late and expensive : the political economy of coal phase-out in Germany (2022)
    Abingdon : Routledge
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-23
    Description: This chapter reconstructs the main actors, objectives and the pertinent contextual factors that co-determined the German coal phase-out. The German decision to phase out coal no later than 2038 was prepared by intense negotiations under the German "coal commission". It was tasked with finding an end date for coal-fired electricity generation and proposing ways and means to support coal workers and the affected regions. This latter objective was the dominant one, supported by a coalition of trade unions, industry, state-level governments as well as major political parties fearing a surge of far-right populism. Meanwhile, meeting the German climate targets was a key condition in the mandate of the coal commission. Yet, the German targets date back to 2010 and are not aligned with the more ambitious objectives enshrined in the Paris Agreement. This explains why the German coal phase-out schedule is so late and so expensive.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    A climate club to decarbonize the global steel industry (2022)
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    Publication Date: 2022-12-05
    Description: Decarbonizing global steel production requires a fundamental transformation. A sectoral climate club, which goes beyond tariffs and involves deep transnational cooperation, can facilitate this transformation by addressing technical, economic and political uncertainties.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Towards net zero : making baselines for international carbon markets dynamic by applying "ambition coefficients" (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-11-23
    Description: This paper discusses options to increase mitigation ambition in crediting mechanisms that serve the Paris Agreement (PA), such as the Article 6.4 mechanism. Under the Clean Development Mechanism and other crediting mechanisms, baselines have been specified in the form of greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity factors and linked to business-as-usual developments. This means that with increasing production of goods and services through carbon market activities, absolute emissions may increase or fall only slowly. At a global level, such an approach widens the "emissions gap". To enable continued use of emissions intensity baselines in crediting mechanisms while being in line with the PA’s goal to pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5˚C, we propose to apply an "ambition coefficient" to emissions intensities of technologies when establishing the baseline. This coefficient would decrease to reflect increasing ambition over time, and reach zero when a country needs to reach net zero emissions. Due to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, the coefficient would fall more quickly for developed than for developing countries. The latter would be able to generate emission reduction credits well beyond 2050, while for the former, crediting would stop around 2035 or before. An ambition coefficient approach would generate certainty for carbon market investors and preserve trust in international carbon markets that operate in line with the agreed, long-term ambition of the international climate regime.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    From regime-building to implementation : harnessing the UN climate conferences to drive climate action (2022)
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    Publication Date: 2022-11-11
    Description: The gap between the internationally agreed climate objectives and tangible emissions reductions looms large. We explore how the supreme decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Conference of the Parties (COP), could develop to promote more effective climate policy. We argue that promoting implementation of climate action could benefit from focusing more on individual sectoral systems, particularly for mitigation. We consider five key governance functions of international institutions to discuss how the COP and the sessions it convenes could advance implementation of the Paris Agreement: guidance and signal, rules and standards, transparency and accountability, means of implementation, and knowledge and learning. In addition, we consider the role of the COP and its sessions as mega-events of global climate policy. We identify opportunities for promoting sectoral climate action across all five governance functions and for both the COP as a formal body and the COP sessions as conducive events. Harnessing these opportunities would require stronger involvement of national ministries in addition to the ministries of foreign affairs and environment that traditionally run the COP process, as well as stronger involvement of non-Party stakeholders within formal COP processes.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    On Timescales and Reversibility of the Ocean's Response to Enhanced Greenland Ice Sheet Melting in Comprehensive Climate Models (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-26
    Description: Warming of the North Atlantic region in climate history often was associated with massive melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To identify the meltwater's impacts and isolate these from internal variability and other global warming factors, we run single‐forcing simulations including small ensembles using three complex climate models differing only in their ocean components. In 200‐year‐long preindustrial climate simulations, we identify robust consequences of abruptly increasing Greenland runoff by 0.05 Sv: sea level rise of 44 ± 10 cm, subpolar North Atlantic surface cooling of 0.7°C, and a moderate AMOC decline of 1.1–2.0 Sv. The latter two emerge in under three decades—and reverse on the same timescale after the perturbation ends in year 100. The ocean translates the step‐change perturbation into a multidecadal‐to‐centennial signature in the deep overturning circulation. In all simulations, internal variability creates notable uncertainty in estimating trends, time of emergence, and duration of the response.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Enhanced melting of Greenland's glaciers is considered to be a major player in past rapid climate transitions and anticipated to soon impact ocean circulation under current global warming. Global warming triggers complex processes and feedbacks, of which greater amounts of meltwater slowing the large‐scale ocean circulation is only one. To better understand the sensitivity of the real but also the model ocean to just this meltwater, we run idealized experiments with up‐to‐date climate models, which use the same atmosphere and land but different ocean components. We find that sea level rise, cooling of the North Atlantic region, and slowing of the ocean circulation are responses common to all models while regional magnitudes of these responses differ considerably. Once we stop adding freshwater, all three models show that surface temperature and ocean circulation recover as quickly (or slowly) as they changed at the beginning of the experiment. Sea level rise is a lasting impact though.
    Description: Key Points: Sudden increase in Greenland freshwater release is turned into century scale change by deep ocean dynamics. Upper ocean responses to moderately enhanced freshwater release from Greenland reverse on the same timescale once release ceases. Ocean model formulation affects regional expressions but basin‐scale responses are robust, so is the timing on decadal to centennial scales.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Potentials for offset approaches in selected sectors post 2020 (2022)
    Dessau-Roßlau : Umweltbundesamt
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-15
    Description: This report develops an evaluation framework that policymakers can use to identify whether offsets can add value and uphold environmental integrity of a compliance scheme. It uses a scoring framework on factors to: (1) identify which sectors have hard-to-abate emissions that can justify demanding offsets as cost-containment measures for ambitious climate policies; and (2) identify mitigation activities that are otherwise inaccessible, fosters sustainable development, and the extent to which it enables transformative sectoral action to be eligible to supply offsets. This evaluation framework identifies the optimal conditions that make factors successful in either having sectors demand offsets, or specific mitigation activities supply offsets. Sectoral emissions that are hard-to-abate are those that are technically unavoidable due to a lack and maturity of technologies, and therefore should be allowed to have cost-containment measures - such as offsets - to avoid adverse economic ramifications such as carbon leakage. Mitigation activities that can supply offsets are those that are currently inaccessible to local actor’s due to lack of access to technology, finance or capabilities. Allowing these mitigation activities to be eligible to supply offsets allows to pilot such activities and realize mitigation outcomes outside the original scope of the compliance scheme. This report has chosen selected sectors and mitigation activities to illustrate how this framework can be applied at the global level. It recognizes that country-specific factors can change the assessment of whether the offset approach will add value and uphold environmental integrity to proposed compliance schemes of a country. The report further proposes practical steps policymakers can do to undertake an evaluation at the national level.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Suitability and success factors of offsets post-2020 (2022)
    Dessau-Roßlau : Umweltbundesamt
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-15
    Description: Offsetting enables countries and companies to meet part of their climate change mitigation obligations by using mitigation outcomes generated elsewhere - in lieu of own emission reductions. This report explores the future role of offset approaches and how they could be successfully integrated into a post-2020 climate regime by focusing both the supply and demand side. For this purpose, the report develops a conceptual approach that derives a normative vision of what should be considered a successful offset use in a top-down manner to then link this vision to specific factors on the ground in sectors and jurisdictions where offsets will be generated and used. It explores how these factors influence the successful operationalisation of the offset approach and how they can inform its design. In addition, the report also explores six conceptual design aspects to providing recommendations on how to take these factors into account during the design of the offset approach. Based on these findings, the authors derive overarching policy recommendations on the integration of offsets into carbon pricing schemes.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Offset approaches in existing compliance mechanisms : adding value and upholding environmental integrity? (2022)
    Dessau-Roßlau : Umweltbundesamt
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-15
    Description: The objective of this report is to use historical analysis to identify conditions that determine when offsets add value to compliance schemes while upholding environmental integrity. The indicators of success include: increased acceptance of introducing compliance schemes; raising ambition in subsequent compliance periods; the possibility to drive emission reductions outside the compliance sectors; promoting investments in sustainable development; and avoiding perverse incentives that undermine the stringency of the compliance scheme or compliance actors’ efforts in reducing their own emissions. Through undertaking in-depth case study analyzes on the effects of offsets in the European Union, Alberta, Australia, Colombia and Japan, the report identifies common conditions that explain why offsets were successful (or not) in achieving individual indicators. The report further identifies two common conditions that can help explain when offsets achieve all five indicators of success. The first is that policymakers need to be willing to design the compliance scheme to set and maintain a strong compliance price signal that justifies the need for incorporating cost containment measures, such as offsets, to avert negative political and economic ramifications. Relatedly, the second condition requires institutions, processes and infrastructure that govern both the compliance scheme and offsets to be well developed so that they can ensure offsets uphold the principles of environmental integrity, achieve sustainable development benefits, and act as a reliable cost containment measure to high compliance prices. The findings also highlight how difficult it is to achieve both conditions, as both domestic and international political economy factors determine whether policymakers and voters are willing to introduce and maintain compliance schemes that deliver effective action on climate.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Comparing the performance of high‐resolution global precipitation products across topographic and climatic gradients of Central Asia (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Accurate and reliable precipitation data with high spatial and temporal resolution are essential in studying climate variability, water resources management, and hydrological forecasting. A range of global precipitation data are available to this end, but how well these capture actual precipitation remains unknown, particularly for mountain regions where ground stations are sparse. We examined the performance of three global high‐resolution precipitation products for capturing precipitation over Central Asia, a hotspot of climate change, where reliable precipitation data are particularly scarce. Specifically, we evaluated MSWEP, CHIRPS, and GSMAP against independent gauging stations for the period 1985–2015. Our results show that MSWEP and CHIRPS outperformed GSMAP for wetter periods (i.e., winter and spring) and wetter locations (150–600 mm·year−1), lowlands, and mid‐altitudes (0–3,000 m), and regions dominated by winter and spring precipitation. MSWEP performed best in representing temporal precipitation dynamics and CHIRPS excelled in capturing the volume and distribution of precipitation. All precipitation products poorly estimated precipitation at higher elevations (〉3,000 m), in drier areas (〈150 mm), and in regions characterized by summer precipitation. All products accurately detected dry spells, but their performance decreased for wet spells with increasing precipitation intensity. In sum, we find that CHIRPS and MSWEP provide the most reliable high‐resolution precipitation estimates for Central Asia. However, the high spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the performance call for a careful selection of a suitable product for local applications considering the prevailing precipitation dynamics, climatic, and topographic conditions.
    Description: We present the first quantitative evaluation of global high‐resolution (below 12 km) precipitation products against independent ground observations over Central Asia. Our results show that MSWEP was best at representing temporal precipitation dynamics, and CHIRPS was most prominent in representing the volume and distribution of precipitation. This is especially the case of wet seasons, altitudes below 3,000 m, and regions dominated by spring and winter precipitation. Our analysis provides key insights on the precipitation products' suitability for local hydrological applications.
    Description: Leibniz‐Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Transformationsökonomien
    Description: Volkswagen Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (2022)
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.
    Description: Key Points: The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the world. Climate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean. Virtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes.
    Description: European Union Horizon 2020
    Description: https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/esgf-liu/
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Noah‐MP With the Generic Crop Growth Model Gecros in the WRF Model: Effects of Dynamic Crop Growth on Land‐Atmosphere Interaction (2022)
    Warrach‐Sagi, K. ; Ingwersen, J. ; Schwitalla, T. ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-17
    Description: In this paper we coupled a crop growth model to the Weather Research and Forecasting model with its land surface model Noah‐MP and demonstrated the influence of the weather driven crop growth on land‐atmosphere (L‐A) feedback. An impact study was performed at the convection permitting scale of 3 km over Germany. While the leaf area index (LAI) in the control simulation was the same for all cropland grid cells, the inclusion of the crop growth model resulted in heterogeneous crop development with higher LAI and stronger seasonality. For the analyses of L‐A coupling, a two‐legged metric was applied based on soil moisture, latent heat flux and convective available potential energy. Weak atmospheric coupling is enhanced by the crop model, the terrestrial coupling determines the regions with the L‐A feedback. The inclusion of the crop model turns regions with no L‐A feedback on this path into regions with strong positive coupling. The number of non‐atmospherically controlled days between April and August is increased by 10–15 days in more than 50% of Germany. Our work shows that this impact results in a reduction of both cold bias and warm biases and thus improves the metrics of distributed added value of the monthly mean temperatures. The study confirms that the simulation of the weather driven annual phenological development of croplands for the regional climate simulations in mid‐latitudes is crucial due to the L‐A feedback processes and the currently observed and expected future change in phenological phases.
    Description: Key Points: Coupling a crop growth model with the Weather and Research Forecasting model significantly improves the simulation of the leaf area index. Land‐atmosphere coupling strength is enhanced by weather dependent crop growth simulation. The distributed added value metric shows a reduction in temperature biases of up to 80% in croplands throughout the season in Germany.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/CDC/grids_germany/daily/Project_TRY/air_temperature_mean/
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6501984
    Description: http://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover/clc-2006/view
    Description: https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/WRF_NOAH_HWSD_world_TOP_SOILTYP
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Analysis to support the implementation of the energy efficiency first principle in decision-making : final report (2022)
    Luxembourg : Publications Office of the European Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-24
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Applying the energy efficiency first principle based on a decision-tree framework (2022)
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    Publication Date: 2022-10-24
    Description: Energy Efficiency First (EEF) is an established principle for European Union (EU) energy policy design. It highlights the exploitation of demand-side resources and prioritizes cost-effective options from the demand-side over other options from a societal cost-benefit perspective. However, the involvement of multiple decision-makers makes it difficult to implement. Therefore, we propose a flexible decision-tree framework for applying the EEF principle based on a review of relevant areas and examples. In summary, this paper contributes to applying the EEF principle by defining and distinguishing different types of cases - (1) policy-making, and (2) system planning and investment - identifying the most common elements, and proposing a decision-tree framework that can be flexibly constructed based on the elements for different cases. Finally, we exemplify the application of this framework with two example cases: (1) planning for demand-response in the power sector, and (2) planning for a district heating system.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    Ensuring an effective global stocktake with a sectoral perspective (2022)
    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-24
    Description: A sectoral perspective can help the Global Stocktake (GST) to effectively achieve its objective to inform Parties' in enhancing subsequent NDCs and in enhancing international cooperation. Specifically, granular and actionable sectoral lessons, grounded in country-driven assessments, should be identified and elaborated. To be effective, conversations on sectoral transformations need to synthesise key challenges and opportunities identified in the national analyses and link them to international enablers; focus on systemic interdependencies, involve diverse actors, and be thoroughly prepared including by pre-scoping points of convergences and divergence across transformations. We specifically recommend that: the co-facilitators of the Technical Dialogue use their (limited) mandate to facilitate an effective conversationon sectoral transformations e.g. by organising dedicated informal seminars in between formal negotiation sessions; key systemic transformations necessary toachieve net-zero by mid-century should be spelled out and included in the final decision or political declaration of the GST; and the political outcome of the GST should mandate follow-up processes at the regional level and encourage national-level conversations to translate the collective messages from GST into actionable and sector-specific policy recommendations.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Harnessing energy performance certificates for deep energy renovation : policy recommendations and evidence from testing (2022)
    Stockholm : European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-24
    Description: To achieve the EU's energy efficiency targets, both the rate of building energy renovation and its depth, i.e., the amount of energy savings post renovation need to be improved. Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) are key to make energy efficiency measures transparent for the building market and to promote the energy efficiency of buildings through renovation. The revision of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) is seen as a pre-condition to meet the Renovation Wave objectives and to reach a highly energy efficient and decarbonized building stock by 2050. One focus of the current revision of the EPBD is therefore the improvement of EPCs. QualDeEPC - High-quality Energy Performance Assessment and Certification in Europe Accelerating Deep Energy Renovation, funded under the EU's Horizon 2020 programme, is a project that aims to improve EPCs. Following an EU-wide review of existing EPC schemes, and extensive stakeholder discussions in the seven partner countries, QualDeEPC found that EPCs and EPC schemes need to enhance particularly in the following three ways: 1. Establish a close link between EPCs and deep energy renovation 2. Improve the quality of EPC schemes, i.e., both the EPCs and their data, and the processes of assessment, certification, verification 3. Improve cross-EU convergence of EPC schemes.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Current approaches to the digital product passport for a circular economy : an overview of projects and initiatives (2022)
    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-11-10
    Description: A large number and variety of activities are being undertaken to introduce Digital Product Passports (DPPs). However, only a few DPPs have made it into practice so far, so there is some uncertainty about which impact DPPs will actually have. With this paper, we aim to provide a structured overview of the current development of DPPs. We provide insights of 76 current corporate, policy, and research activities that exist and their objectives. To allow for a structured assessment and discussion of the diverse approaches we defined 13 criteria for a comparable description, categorization and evaluation. We expect that this overview will not only encourage feedback and contributions from the DPP community, as well as valuable discussions with and among experts. It is also intended to help promote and facilitate the adoption of DPPs for the Circular Economy by facilitating collaborations and suggestions for ongoing activities.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    Keeping promises? : The voluntary carbon market is faced with great expectations under uncertain conditions (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-29
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: contributiontoperiodical , doc-type:contributionToPeriodical
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  • 18
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    On the evaluation of climate change impact models (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Inc. | Hoboken, USA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-05
    Description: In‐depth understanding of the potential implications of climate change is required to guide decision‐ and policy‐makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest are needed to create the causal connection between a changing climate and its impact for different sectors. Recent surveys suggest that the primary strategy for validating such models (and hence for justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing the accuracy of model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue that such a comparison is necessary and valuable, but not sufficient to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models. We believe that a complementary, largely observation‐independent, step of model evaluation is needed to ensure more transparency of model behavior and greater robustness of scenario‐based analyses. This step should address the following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity to changing forcing as expected? (3) Do modeled decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout the projection horizon? We believe that global sensitivity analysis, with its ability to investigate a model's response to joint variations of multiple inputs in a structured way, offers a coherent approach to address all four questions comprehensively. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen stakeholder confidence in model projections and, therefore, into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of impact models.
    Description: A comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models combining both observation‐based and response‐based strategies.
    Description: This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling 〉 Knowledge Generation with Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change 〉 Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156
    Description: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 19
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    Lagrangian Analysis of Moisture Sources of Precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-27
    Description: The moisture sources of precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains, one of the regions with the highest precipitation in Central Asia during 1979–2017 are comprehensively and quantitatively summarized by using a Lagrangian moisture source detection technique. Continental sources provide about 93.2% of the moisture for precipitation in the Tianshan Mountain, while moisture directly from the ocean is very limited, averaging only 6.8%. Central Asia plays a dominant role in providing moisture for all sub‐regions of the Tianshan Mountains. For the Western Tianshan, moisture from April to October comes mainly from Central Asia (41.4%), while moisture from November to March is derived primarily from Western Asia (45.7%). Nearly 13.0% of moisture to precipitation for Eastern Tianshan in summer originates from East and South Asia, and the Siberia region. There is a significant decreasing trend in the moisture contribution of local evaporation and Central Asia in the Eastern Tianshan during winter. The contribution of moisture from Europe to summer precipitation in the Central and Eastern Tianshan and the contribution of the North Atlantic Ocean to summer precipitation in the Northern, Central, and Eastern Tianshan also exhibit a decreasing trend. The largest increase in moisture in Western Tianshan stems from West Asia during extreme winter precipitation months. Europe is also an important contributor to extreme precipitation in the Northern Tianshan. The moisture from East and South Asia and Siberia during extreme precipitation months in both winter and summer is significantly enhanced in the Eastern Tianshan.
    Description: Key Points: Local evaporation and Central Asia play a leading role in providing moisture for all sub‐regions of the Tianshan Mountains. The largest moisture component during the months of extreme winter precipitation for Western Tianshan derives from western Asia. Moisture from East and South Asia and Siberia during extreme precipitation months is significantly enhanced in the Eastern Tianshan.
    Description: China Scholarship Council
    Description: Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin
    Description: https://zenodo.org/record/6451656#.YrrfbqhBwuU
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Stratospheric Moistening After 2000 (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-27
    Description: The significant climate feedback of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) necessitates quantitative estimates of SWV budget changes. Model simulations driven by the newest European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast reanalysis ERA5, satellite observations from the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized data set, Microwave Limb Sounder, and in situ frost point hygrometer observations from Boulder all show substantial and persistent stratospheric moistening after a sharp drop in water vapor at the turn of the millennium. This moistening occurred mainly during 2000–2006 and SWV abundances then remained high over the last decade. We find strong positive trends in the Northern Hemisphere and weak negative trends over the South Pole, mainly during austral winter. Moistening of the tropical stratosphere after 2000 occurred during late boreal winter/spring, reached values of ∼0.2 ppm/decade, was well correlated with a warming of the cold point tropopause by ∼0.4 K/decade and can only be partially attributed to El Nino‐Southern Oscillation and volcanic eruptions.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Water vapor is an effective greenhouse gas. Human‐induced climate change has led to warmer air in the troposphere, which consequently can hold more moisture, thus enhancing the greenhouse effect. The long‐term change in stratospheric water vapor (SWV) is less clear and currently under debate. Using satellite observations, balloon soundings and model simulations, we find an increase of SWV after 2000. This moistening occurred mainly during 2000–2006 and the stratospheric moisture content then remained high over the last decade. The increase of SWV is stronger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the South Pole, a weak decrease was found. Moistening of the tropical stratosphere occurred mainly during late winter and spring, and was in line with warming of the tropical tropopause, the coldest region that separates the troposphere and stratosphere. Natural causes such as volcanic eruptions cannot completely explain this stratospheric moistening.
    Description: Key Points: Stratospheric moistening after 2000 is clearly detectable in ERA5‐driven simulations, satellite and in situ observations. Hemispheric asymmetry is found with strong positive trends in the Northern Hemisphere and weak negative trends over the South Pole. Moistening of the lower tropical stratosphere is only partially caused by El Nino‐Southern Oscillation and volcanic eruptions.
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5067/Aura/MLS/DATA2508
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5067/GLOSSAC-L3-V2.0
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5067/GLOSSAC-L3-V2.0
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Alternate Wetting and Drying for Rice Production at National Scale—A Modeling Case Study for the Philippines (2022)
    Kraus, David ; Werner, Christian ; Janz, Baldur ; [et al.]
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: Worldwide, rice production contributes about 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector, mainly due to CH4 emissions from continuously flooded fields. Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) is a promising crop technology for mitigating CH4 emissions and reducing the irrigation water currently being applied in many of the world's top rice‐producing countries. However, decreased emissions of CH4 may be partially counterbalanced by increased N2O emissions. In this case study for the Philippines, the national mitigation potential of AWD is explored using the process‐based biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. Simulated mean annual CH4 emissions under conventional rice production for the time period 2000–2011 are estimated as 1,180 ± 163 Gg CH4 yr−1. During the cropping season, this is about +16% higher than a former estimate using emission factors. Scenario simulations of nationwide introduction of AWD in irrigated landscapes suggest a considerable decrease in CH4 emissions by −23%, while N2O emissions are only increased by +8%. Irrespective of field management, at national scale, the radiative forcing of irrigated rice production is always dominated by CH4 (〉95%). The reduction potential of GHG emissions depends on, for example, number of crops per year, residue management, amount of applied irrigation water, and sand content. Seasonal weather conditions also play an important role since the mitigation potential of AWD is almost double as high in dry as compared to wet seasons. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the importance of temporal continuity, considering off‐season emissions and the long‐term development of GHG emissions across multiple years.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Worldwide, rice production contributes to about 10% of total greenhouse gas emissions of the agricultural sector mainly due to CH4 emissions from fields that are continuously flooded. Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) is an alternative cropping practice where fields are irrigated a few days after the disappearance of the ponded water. This study explores the mitigation potential of nationwide introduction of AWD in the Philippines. Results from the application of a process‐based model suggest a considerable decrease in CH4 emissions by −23%. Compared to N2O, CH4 is responsible for more than 95% of the total radiative forcing under conventional or AWD field management.
    Description: Key Points: Nationwide, Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) reduces CH4 emissions by −23%. N2O emissions contribute to less than 5% to the total radiative forcing under conventional or AWD field management. Mitigation of AWD depends on, for example, seasonal weather conditions, cropping intensity, irrigation, residue management, and soil texture.
    Description: DFG
    Description: https://doi.org/10.35097/588
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; ddc:581.7
    Language: English
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    Contrasting State‐Dependent Effects of Natural Forcing on Global and Local Climate Variability (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-04
    Description: Natural forcing from solar and volcanic activity contributes significantly to climate variability. The post‐eruption cooling of strong volcanic eruptions was hypothesized to have led to millennial‐scale variability during Glacials. Cooling induced by volcanic eruption is potentially weaker in the warmer climate. The underlying question is whether the climatic response to natural forcing is state‐dependent. Here, we quantify the response to natural forcing under Last Glacial and Pre‐Industrial conditions in an ensemble of climate model simulations. We evaluate internal and forced variability on annual to multicentennial scales. The global temperature response reveals no state dependency. Small local differences result mainly from state‐dependent sea ice changes. Variability in forced simulations matches paleoclimate reconstructions significantly better than in unforced scenarios. Considering natural forcing is therefore important for model‐data comparison and future projections.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Climate variability describes the spatial and temporal variations of Earth's climate. Understanding these variations is important for estimating the occurrence of extreme climate events such as droughts. Yet, it is unclear whether climate variability depends on the mean surface temperature of the Earth or not. Here, we investigate the effects of natural forcing from volcanic eruptions and solar activity changes on climate variability. We compare simulations of a past (cold) and present (warm) climate with and without volcanism and solar changes. We find that overall, the climate system responds similarly to natural forcing in the cold and warm state. Small local differences mainly occur where ice can form. To evaluate the simulated variability, we use data from paleoclimate archives, including trees, ice‐cores, and marine sediments. Climate variability from forced simulations agrees better with the temperature variability obtained from data. Natural forcing is therefore critical for reliable simulation of variability in past and future climates.
    Description: Key Points: We present Glacial/Interglacial climate simulations and quantify effects of time‐varying volcanic and solar forcing on climate variability. The mean global and local response to these forcings is similar in Glacial and Interglacial climate, suggesting low state dependency. In both climate states, modeled temperature variance agrees better with palaeoclimate data when volcanic and solar forcing is included.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Heinrich Böll Stiftung (Heinrich Böll Foundation) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009379
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6074747
    Description: https://github.com/paleovar/StateDependency
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6474769
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Ensemble Kalman filter based data assimilation for tropical waves in the MJO skeleton model (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant component of tropical intraseasonal variability, with wide‐reaching impacts even on extratropical weather and climate patterns. However, predicting the MJO is challenging. One reason is the suboptimal state estimates obtained with standard data assimilation (DA) approaches. These are typically based on filtering methods with Gaussian approximations and do not take into account physical properties that are important specifically for the MJO. In this article, a constrained ensemble DA method is applied to study the impact of different physical constraints on the state estimation and prediction of the MJO. The quadratic programming ensemble (QPEns) algorithm utilized extends the standard stochastic ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with specifiable constraints on the updates of all ensemble members. This allows us to recover physically more consistent states and to respect possible associated non‐Gaussian statistics. The study is based on identical twin experiments with an adopted nonlinear model for tropical intraseasonal variability. This so‐called skeleton model succeeds in reproducing the main large‐scale features of the MJO and closely related tropical waves, while keeping adequate simplicity for fast experiments on intraseasonal time‐scales. Conservation laws and other crucial physical properties from the model are examined as constraints in the QPEns. Our results demonstrate an overall improvement in the filtering and forecast skill when the model's total energy is conserved in the initial conditions. The degree of benefit is found to be dependent on the observational setup and the strength of the model's nonlinear dynamics. It is also shown that, even in cases where the statistical error in some waves remains comparable with the stochastic EnKF during the DA stage, their prediction is improved remarkably when using the initial state resulting from the QPEns.
    Description: Unsatisfactory predictions of the MJO are partly due to DA methods that do not respect non‐Gaussian PDFs and the physical properties of the tropical atmosphere. Therefore the QPEns, an algorithm extending a stochastic EnKF with state constraints, is tested here on a simplified model for the MJO and associated tropical waves. Our series of identical twin experiments shows, in particular, that a constraint on the truth's nonlinear total energy improves forecasts statistically and can, in certain situations, even prevent filter divergence. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft : Heisenberg Award (DFG JA1077/4‐1); Transregional Collaborative Research Center SFB / TRR 165 “Waves to Weather” http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Office of Naval Research (ONR) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000006
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Tropical Continents Rainier Than Expected From Geometrical Constraints (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-06
    Description: Abundant rainfall over tropical land masses sustains rich ecosystems, a crucial source of biodiversity and sink of carbon. Here, we use two characteristics of the observed tropical precipitation distribution, its distinctive zonal arrangement and its partitioning between land and ocean, to understand whether land conditions the climate to receive more than its fair share of precipitation as set by the land‐sea distribution. Our analysis demonstrates that it is not possible to explain the tropics‐wide partitioning of precipitation unless one assumes that rain is favored over land. Land receives more than its fair share of precipitation by broadening and letting the tropical rainbelts move more, effectively underpinning a negative feedback between surface water storage and precipitation. In contrast, rain is disfavored over land in climate models. Our findings suggest that the abundance of rainfall that shapes the terrestrial tropical biosphere is more robust to perturbations than models have suggested.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Many ecosystems depend on the presence of a land surface exposed to precipitation to exist and prosper. In contrast to the marine biota, though, the terrestrial biosphere cannot directly tap into an unlimited reservoir of water molecules that can be recycled to support life. Yet, observations indicate that it rains in mean 3 mm day−1 over tropical land and 3 mm day−1 over tropical ocean, giving the surprising impression that precipitation amounts are not altered by the presence of land. Investigating the factors controlling this tropics‐wide partitioning of precipitation, we show that geometrical constraints actually would lead to a precipitation ratio of 0.86, not 1.0, if the presence of land would not matter. Comparing this theoretical value to observations, we find that the land receives more than its fair share of precipitation. This happens by broadening and letting the tropical rainbelt moves more over land. By quantifying the strength of the land control on the tropics‐wide partitioning of precipitation, we can also deduce that a negative feedback exists between evapotranspiration and precipitation. In contrast, repeating the same analysis with climate models reveals a positive feedback, questioning the ability of climate models to simulate regional tropical precipitation changes.
    Description: Key Points: A conceptual model of tropical precipitation is derived to understand the tropics‐wide partitioning of precipitation between land and ocean. The size and location of continent constrain the tropical land‐to‐ocean precipitation ratio to lie between 0.74 and 0.95 with a mean of 0.86. Observed ratios from six data sets are larger than these values, indicating that land receives more than its fair share of precipitation.
    Description: http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000A-1DEC-D
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Using Clustering, Statistical Modeling, and Climate Change Projections to Analyze Recent and Future Region‐Specific Compound Ozone and Temperature Burden Over Europe (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-22
    Description: High ground‐level ozone concentrations and high air temperatures present two health‐relevant natural hazards. The most severe health outcomes are generally associated with concurrent elevated levels of both variables, representing so‐called compound ozone and temperature (o‐t‐) events. These o‐t‐events, their relationship with identified main meteorological and synoptic drivers, as well as ozone and temperature levels themselves and the linkage between both variables, vary temporally and with the location of sites. Due to the serious health burden and its spatiotemporal variations, the analysis of o‐t‐events across the European domain represents the focus of the current work. The main objective is to model and project present and future o‐t‐events, taking region‐specific differences into account. Thus, a division of the European domain into six o‐t‐regions with homogeneous, similar ground‐level ozone and temperature characteristics and patterns built the basis of the study. In order to assess region‐specific main meteorological and synoptic drivers of o‐t‐events, statistical downscaling models were developed for selected representative stations per o‐t‐region. Statistical climate change projections for all central European o‐t‐regions were generated to assess potential frequency shifts of o‐t‐events until the end of the 21st century. The output of eight Earth System Models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project considering SSP245 and SSP370 scenario assumptions was applied. By comparing midcentury (2041–2060) and late century (2081–2100) time slice differences with respect to a historical base period (1995–2014), substantial increases of the health‐relevant compound o‐t‐events were projected across all central European regions.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Compound events with concurrent high levels of ozone, being a major pollutant present in the air near Earth's surface, and of air temperature, have strong negative impacts on the health of humans. In this study, these compound events were investigated under present and future European climate. Six regions of similar ozone and temperature characteristics and patterns were defined. For each region, representative stations being typical examples for the overall region were extracted. Models for these stations were developed and their results analyzed to define factors that highly influence the occurrence of compound ozone and temperature events in each region, for example, mean air temperature or humidity levels. The generated models were later applied to project future frequency shifts of these compound events under climate change in central Europe. As a major result of the study, the future health‐relevant compound ozone and temperature events were projected to occur more frequently in the middle as well as at the end of the 21st century across all central European regions.
    Description: Key Points: A clustering approach based on ground‐level ozone and air temperature leads to a division of Europe into six ozone and temperature regions. Statistical downscaling models identify region‐specific main meteorological and synoptic drivers of compound ozone and temperature events. Climate change projections point to an increase in these compound events until the end of the 21st century in central Europe.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    How close are we to 1.5 degC or 2 degC of global warming? (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-09
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    The 2018–2020 Multi‐Year Drought Sets a New Benchmark in Europe (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-28
    Description: During the period 2018–2020, Europe experienced a series of hot and dry weather conditions with significant socioeconomic and environmental consequences. Yet, the extremity of these multi‐year dry conditions is not recognized. Here, we provide a comprehensive spatio‐temporal assessment of the drought hazard over Europe by benchmarking past exceptional events during the period from 1766 to 2020. We identified the 2018–2020 drought event as a new benchmark having an unprecedented intensity that persisted for more than 2 years, exhibiting a mean areal coverage of 35.6% and an average duration of 12.2 months. What makes this event truly exceptional compared with past events is its near‐surface air temperature anomaly reaching +2.8 K, which constitutes a further evidence that the ongoing global warming is exacerbating present drought events. Furthermore, future events based on climate model simulations Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 suggest that Europe should be prepared for events of comparable intensity as the 2018–2020 event but with durations longer than any of those experienced in the last 250 years. Our study thus emphasizes the urgent need for adaption and mitigation strategies to cope with such multi‐year drought events across Europe.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: This manuscript demonstrates that the 2018–2020 multi‐year drought event constitutes a new benchmark in Europe, with an unprecedented level of intensity over the past 250 years. What makes this event truly exceptional compared with past events is its temperature anomaly reaching +2.8 K. This finding provides new evidence that the ongoing global warming exacerbates current drought events. The key message of this study is that the projected future events across the European continent will have a comparable intensity as the 2018–2020 drought but exhibit considerably longer durations than any of those observed during the last 250 years. Our analysis also shows that these exceptional temperature‐enhanced droughts significantly negatively impact commodity crops across Europe.
    Description: Key Points: The 2018–2020 multi‐year drought shows unprecedented level of intensity during the past 250 years. The 2018–2020 event reached record‐breaking +2.8 K temperature anomaly and negatively impacted major crops. Future drought events reach comparable intensity of 2018–2020 but with considerably longer durations.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Grantová Agentura České Republiky (GAČR) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001824
    Description: Helmholtz‐Fonds (Helmholtz‐Fonds e.V.) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013655
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-12-15
    Description: Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO‐dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi‐model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi‐model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Wintertime temperature in the Northern Hemisphere is regulated by the variations of atmospheric pressure, represented by the so‐called North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO's phase—negative or positive—is associated with the pathways of cold and warm air masses leading to cold or warm winters in Europe. While the NAO phase can be predicted well, predictions of the NAO‐dependent air temperature remain elusive. Specifically, it is challenging to predict the strength of the NAO, the most important requirement for the accurate prediction of wintertime temperature. Here, we improve wintertime temperature prediction by increasing the strength of the predicted NAO. We use observation based autumn Northern Hemisphere ocean and air temperature, as well as ice and snow cover for statistical estimation of the first guess NAO for the upcoming winter. Then, we sub‐select only those simulations from the multi‐model ensemble, which are consistent with our first guess NAO. As a result, based on these selected members, the wintertime temperature prediction is substantially improved over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere.
    Description: Key Points: Amplitude and skill of predicted North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) improve significantly by subsampling of ensemble of existing seasonal prediction systems. Amplified NAO variability leads to significant improvement in predicting the upcoming winter temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
    Description: Climate, Climatic Change, and Society
    Description: Marine Institute grant
    Description: European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme
    Description: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/seasonal-original-single-levels?tab=overview
    Description: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; seasonal prediction ; wintertime temperature anomalies
    Language: English
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    Towards integrity : regulating climate neutrality claims (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: contributiontoperiodical , doc-type:contributionToPeriodical
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    Ocean Model Formulation Influences Transient Climate Response (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: The transient climate response (TCR) is 20% higher in the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI‐CM) compared to the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM) whereas the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is by up to 10% higher in AWI‐CM. These results are largely independent of the two considered model resolutions for each model. The two coupled CMIP6 models share the same atmosphere‐land component ECHAM6.3 developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI‐M). However, ECHAM6.3 is coupled to two different ocean models, namely the MPIOM sea ice‐ocean model developed at MPI‐M and the FESOM sea ice‐ocean model developed at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). A reason for the different TCR is related to ocean heat uptake in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Specifically, AWI‐CM simulations show stronger surface heating than MPI‐ESM simulations while the latter accumulate more heat in the deeper ocean. The vertically integrated ocean heat content is increasing slower in AWI‐CM model configurations compared to MPI‐ESM model configurations in the high latitudes. Weaker vertical mixing in AWI‐CM model configurations compared to MPI‐ESM model configurations seems to be key for these differences. The strongest difference in vertical ocean mixing occurs inside the Weddell and Ross Gyres and the northern North Atlantic. Over the North Atlantic, these differences materialize in a lack of a warming hole in AWI‐CM model configurations and the presence of a warming hole in MPI‐ESM model configurations. All these differences occur largely independent of the considered model resolutions.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The transient climate response (TCR) describes how strongly near‐surface temperatures warm in response to gradually increasing greenhouse‐gas levels. Here we investigate the role of the ocean which takes up heat and thereby delays the surface warming. Two models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI‐CM) and the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM), which use the same atmosphere model but different ocean models are selected for this study. In AWI‐CM the upper ocean layers heat faster than in MPI‐ESM, while the opposite is true for the deep ocean. As a consequence, the TCR is 20% stronger in AWI‐CM compared to MPI‐ESM. We find that weaker vertical ocean mixing in AWI‐CM compared to MPI‐ESM, especially over the northern North Atlantic and the Weddell and Ross Gyres, is key for these differences. Our findings corroborate the importance of realistic ocean mixing in climate models when it comes to getting the strength and timing of climate change right.
    Description: Key Points: The transient climate response in two coupled models with the same atmosphere but different ocean components differs by 20%. The upper (deeper) ocean heats faster (slower) in AWI‐CM compared to MPI‐ESM, independent of model resolution. Vertical mixing in the northern North Atlantic and the Weddell and Ross Gyres appears to be key for these differences.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ)
    Description: Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/cmip6-dkrz/
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    The Role of Moisture Conveyor Belts for Precipitation in the Atacama Desert (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: In the hyperarid Atacama Desert in northern Chile, rare precipitation events can leave long‐lasting geomorphological traces and have strong impacts on biota. While moisture conveyor belts (MCBs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) have been associated with extreme precipitation in semiarid regions, their role for the Atacama Desert has not been previously investigated. This study reveals that about four MCBs per year make landfall in the Atacama Desert. According to simulated precipitation, 40–80% of the total precipitation between the coast and the Andean foothills is associated with MCBs. A case study reveals an elevated moisture transport decoupled from the maritime boundary layer, which is generalized by a composite analysis. Back trajectories reveal the Amazon Basin as the main source of moisture. MCB landfall times are derived from the AR catalog by Guan and Waliser (2015), https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024257. Implications of the results on paleoclimate reconstructions are discussed.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In the extremely dry Atacama Desert in northern Chile, rare rain events can trigger landscape alterations and have strong impacts on various life forms. Traces of such events are conserved within the desert soil over long time periods throughout the enduring dryness. Such traces constitute climate archives, which can be excavated and explored. Understanding particular conditions, which lead to extreme precipitation events is necessary to interpret such archives, reconstruct climate history, and explore thresholds of life at the dry limit. In this study, the role of a weather phenomenon called moisture conveyor belt (MCB) is quantified for the first time for the Atacama Desert. It is demonstrated that depending on region, 40–80% of the total rainfall is associated with these phenomena. In contrast to atmospheric river characteristics reported for midlatitudes, a unique vertical structure with an elevated moisture transport independent of the near‐surface layer is discovered here. Even though the identified MCBs approach the Atacama Desert from northwesterly directions across the Pacific Ocean, the associated moisture mostly originates from the Amazon Basin.
    Description: Key Points: For most parts of the Atacama Desert, more than half of the total precipitation is related to moisture conveyor belts (MCBs). In contrast to midlatitudes, main moisture transport takes place in mid‐tropospheric layers decoupled from the maritime boundary layer. The main origin of the MCB‐related moisture is found to be the Amazon Basin.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://www.crc1211db.uni-koeln.de/search/view.php?dataID=38
    Description: http://www.cr2.cl/datos-de-precipitacion/
    Description: http://explorador.cr2.cl/
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Impact of a large artificial lake on regional climate: A typical meteorological year Meso‐NH simulation results (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-01
    Description: Large artificial lakes and reservoirs affect the meteorological regime of the shore area and the local climate takes on a number of new features that were previously absent. This work focuses on the weather impact of the Alqueva reservoir, the largest artificial lake in Western Europe. An extensive set of numerical simulations using Meso‐NH mesoscale atmospheric model coupled with FLake (Freshwater Lake) scheme was carried out. The simulations covered a 12‐month period that was chosen to compose a so‐called Typical Meteorological Year. This artificial time period is meant to represent the typical meteorological conditions in the region and the model results are used to assess the changes in the local climate. To evaluate the raw impact of the reservoir, two different scenarios of simulations were compared: (A) with the reservoir as it exists nowadays and (B) without the reservoir using the older surface dataset. The results show decrease of air temperature during daytime (10–9°C) and nighttime increase (up to 10°C). In nearest towns, daily maximum temperature decreased and daily minimum temperature increased, which refers to milder weather conditions. Alqueva mainly showed suppression in fog formation in the nearby area. Local breeze regime was studied and monthly lake/land breezes were described.
    Description: Large lakes and artificial reservoirs can affect the meteorological regime of their coastal areas and impact the local climate. This work focuses on the weather impact of the Alqueva reservoir, the largest artificial lake in Western Europe, studied on the basis of mesoscale atmospheric modelling data over the 12‐month period composed in a typical meteorological year for the region of interest.
    Description: ALOP project
    Description: COMPETE 2020 ICT project
    Description: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
    Description: TOMAQAPA
    Description: http://mesonh.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh54/Download
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    A nonlocal three‐dimensional turbulence parameterization (NLT3D) for numerical weather prediction models (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-30
    Description: With increasing resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, classical subgrid‐scale processes become increasingly resolved on the model grid. In particular, turbulence in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is vertically already partially resolved in contemporary models. For classical local PBL schemes, resulting up‐gradient heat transports cannot be treated correctly. Thus, nonlocal turbulence schemes have been developed in the past. As the horizontal grid sizes of NWP models become smaller than a few kilometers, the large turbulence eddies in the PBL will also start to become partially resolved in the horizontal direction. A very flexible way to formulate nonlocal turbulent exchange is the transilient matrix method, which is used here to develop a new turbulence parameterization. The resulting NLT3D scheme applies transilient mixing matrices to subgrid‐scale transports in all three dimensions. We compare results of WRF real‐case simulations including our scheme, a classical local turbulence scheme (MYNN), and an existing nonlocal one‐dimensional scheme (ACM2) with observations from field campaigns over homogeneous terrain (CASES‐99) and complex terrain (CAPTEX). Over homogeneous terrain, all three schemes similarly well capture the observed surface fluxes and radiosonde profiles, whereas over complex terrain more differences become obvious. During a tracer release experiment (CAPTEX) over the Appalachian mountain region, the mixing and vertical extent of the PBL turn out to be decisive to reproduce the observed advection speed of the tracer‐marked air mass. Deeper mixing not only accelerates surface winds but also enables tracer to travel faster at higher altitudes and then mix back to the ground. As results from a version of NLT3D with only standard horizontal Smagorinsky diffusion (NLT1D) demonstrate, simulating three‐dimensional turbulence can be beneficial already at horizontal grid sizes of a few kilometers.
    Description: Decreasing grid sizes in numerical weather prediction models demand the inclusion of nonlocal effects and horizontal turbulence in turbulence parameterizations. This is the motivation for the development of the nonlocal three‐dimensional turbulence (NLT3D) scheme. Vertical nonlocal mixing accelerates the horizontal transport of near‐surface tracers by fast advection at higher altitudes (see figure), and horizontal turbulence enhances tracer dispersion. As validated by observations, both effects are beneficial to the forecast quality already at grid sizes of a few kilometers.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-31
    Description: Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non‐stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea‐level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep‐landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Many societal and environmental impacts from events such as droughts and storms arise from a combination of weather and climate factors referred to as a compound event. Considering the complex nature of these high‐impact events is crucial for an accurate assessment of climate‐related risk, for example to develop adaptation and emergency preparedness strategies. However, compound event research has emerged only recently, therefore our ability to analyze these events is still limited. In practice, studying compound events is a challenging task, which often requires interaction between experts across multiple disciplines. Recently, compound events were divided into four types to aid the framing of research on this topic, but guidelines on how to study these four types are missing. Here, we take a pragmatic approach and—focusing on case studies of different compound event types—illustrate how to address specific research questions that could be of interest to users. The results allow identifying recommendations for compound event analyses. Furthermore, through the case studies, we highlight the relevance that compounding effects have for the occurrence of landslides, flooding, vegetation impacts, and crop failures. The guidelines emerged from this work will assist the development of compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors.
    Description: Key Points: Using case studies representative of four main compound event types we show how compound event‐related research questions can be tackled. We present user‐friendly guidelines for compound event analysis applicable to different compound event types. We demonstrate that compound events cause vegetation impacts, coastal flooding, landslides, and continental‐scale crop yield failures.
    Description: European COST action DAMOCLES
    Description: NERC
    Description: Swiss National Science Foundation
    Description: Helmholtz Initiative and Networking Fund
    Description: Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO)
    Description: Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
    Description: Scientific Employment Stimulus 2017
    Description: Italian Ministry of University and Research
    Description: European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme
    Description: AXA Research Fund for support
    Description: Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Mean‐State Dependence of CO2‐Forced Tropical Atlantic Sector Climate Change (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-31
    Description: Twenty‐first‐century climate change projections are uncertain, especially on regional scales. An important source of uncertainty is that climate models exhibit biases, which limits their ability to predict climate. One of the largest biases is the too warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Atlantic (TA), reflecting deficient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Here, we show that CO2‐forced TA‐sector climate changes simulated by state‐of‐the‐art climate models exhibit a strong mean‐state dependence. In particular, models simulating largest SST warming in the eastern TA, consistent with the warming observed since the mid‐20th century, typically exhibit a more realistic mean state than models simulating largest warming in the western TA. The former models exhibit a larger climate sensitivity, and predict stronger and in part qualitatively different climate changes over the TA sector, for example in precipitation. These findings may help to reducing uncertainty in TA‐climate change projections.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Twenty‐first‐century climate change projections are uncertain, especially on regional scales. An important source of uncertainty is that climate models exhibit biases, which limits their ability to predict climate. One of the largest biases is the too warm sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Atlantic (TA), reflecting deficient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Here, we show that CO2‐forced TA‐sector climate changes simulated by state‐of‐the‐art climate models exhibit a strong relationship to the quality of simulating the mean state. These findings may help to reducing uncertainty in climate change projections over the TA sector.
    Description: Key Points: Climate projections for the tropical Atlantic sector depend on the quality of simulating present‐day conditions. Less biased climate models provide more reliable projections. Spread in CO2‐forced climate changes over the Tropical Atlantic region.
    Description: Helmholtz Society
    Description: JPI Climate and JPI Ocean
    Description: German Ministry of Education and Research
    Description: https://www.dkrz.de/up/services/data-management/cmip-data-pool
    Description: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/
    Description: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html
    Description: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cobe2.html
    Description: https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds090.2/
    Description: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.hadslp2.html
    Description: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.coads.2deg.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Past and Future Climate Variability Uncertainties in the Global Carbon Budget Using the MPI Grand Ensemble (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-25
    Description: Quantifying the anthropogenic fluxes of CO2 is important to understand the evolution of carbon sink capacities, on which the required strength of our mitigation efforts directly depends. For the historical period, the global carbon budget (GCB) can be compiled from observations and model simulations as is done annually in the Global Carbon Project's (GCP) carbon budgets. However, the historical budget only considers a single realization of the Earth system and cannot account for internal climate variability. Understanding the distribution of internal climate variability is critical for predicting the future carbon budget terms and uncertainties. We present here a decomposition of the GCB for the historical period and the RCP4.5 scenario using single‐model large ensemble simulations from the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE) to capture internal variability. We calculate uncertainty ranges for the natural sinks and anthropogenic emissions that arise from internal climate variability, and by using this distribution, we investigate the likelihood of historical fluxes with respect to plausible climate states. Our results show these likelihoods have substantial fluctuations due to internal variability, which are partially related to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find that the largest internal variability in the MPI‐GE stems from the natural land sink and its increasing carbon stocks over time. The allowable fossil fuel emissions consistent with 3 C warming may be between 9 and 18 Pg C yr−1. The MPI‐GE is generally consistent with GCP's global budgets with the notable exception of land‐use change emissions in recent decades, highlighting that human action is inconsistent with climate mitigation goals.
    Description: Key Points: We use a single‐model large ensemble to estimate uncertainties from internal climate variability in the global carbon budget. The land sink accounts for most internal climate uncertainty which may permit 9–18 Pg C yr−1 in allowable emissions by 2050 (for 3°C warming).
    Description: European Union's Horizon 2020
    Keywords: ddc:551.9 ; ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Driving towards transformation? To what extent does global climate governance promote decarbonisation of land transport? (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: This article aims to analyse the potential for international climate governance to promote the decarbonisation of land transport. It first summarises challenges and barriers that impede the transformation of the sector. On this basis, the article discusses how international governance could potentially assist with overcoming these barriers and mobilising potentials. Subsequently, the article analyses to what extent existing international governance institutions deliver on the potential identified. The analysis finds that while there is a large number of international institutions trying to promote the decarbonisation of land transport, none of them emerge saliently as hubs or core institutions. There is a substantial amount of activity to generate and disseminate knowledge and learning, but the potential for providing guidance and signal, setting rules, providing transparency/accountability and means of implementation could be further exploited. The article concludes with suggestions on how international governance may be strengthened.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Guiding the transformation : the role of global climate governance as a facilitator of the transition of unsustainable socio-technical systems (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
    Description: Climate change is a transformation challenge. It requires the transformation of a patchwork of independent socio-technical systems. These complex systems have their own specific challenges and path dependencies. Lukas Hermwille introduces a perspective on socio-technical complexity to the study of global climate governance and asks what governance arrangements on the international level, in particular the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Paris Agreement, can offer to facilitate and foster the required transformational change. His work shows the importance of the discursive power of global climate governance, shifting the expectations and visions of the future of key actors and, as a corollary, changing their investment decisions of today towards a more sustainable future.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: doctoralthesis , doc-type:doctoralThesis
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    A sectoral perspective on global climate governance : analytical foundation (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: This article develops a sectoral approach to the analysis of global climate governance. This approach advances the assessment of global climate governance by focusing on complexes of intergovernmental and transnational institutions co-governing key socio-technical sectoral systems. The actual and potential contribution of these sectoral institutional complexes to advancing decarbonization can be assessed according to five key governance functions: (1) providing guidance and signal to actors, (2) setting rules to facilitate collective action, (3) enhancing transparency and accountability, (4) offering support (finance, technology, capacity-building), and (5) promoting knowledge and learning. On this basis, we can assess the potential of international cooperation to address the challenges specific sectoral systems face in the climate transition as well as the extent to which existing sectoral institutional complexes deliver on this potential. This provides a solid starting point for developing options for filling identified gaps and enhancing the effectiveness of global climate governance.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Climate ambition and sustainable development for a new decade : a catalytic framework (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-28
    Description: This paper examines the Global Climate Action Agenda (GCAA) and discusses options to improve sub- and non-state involvement in post-2020 climate governance. A framework that stimulates sub- and non-state action is a necessary complement to national governmental action, as the latter falls short of achieving low-carbon and climate-resilient development as envisaged in the Paris Agreement. Applying design principles for an ideal-type orchestration framework, we review literature and gather expert judgements to assess whether the GCAA has been collaborative, comprehensive, evaluative and catalytic. Results show that there has been greater coordination among orchestrators, for instance in the organization of events. However, mobilization efforts remain event-driven and too little effort is invested in understanding the progress of sub- and non-state action. Data collection has improved, although more sophisticated indicators are needed to evaluate climate and sustainable development impacts. Finally, the GCAA has recorded more action, but relatively little by actors in developing countries. As the world seeks to recover from the COVID-19 crisis and enters a new decade of climate action, the GCAA could make a vital contribution in challenging times by helping governments keep and enhance climate commitments; strengthening capacity for sub- and non-state action; enabling accountability; and realizing sustainable development.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Enough? The role of sufficiency in European energy and climate plans (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-06
    Description: Energy sufficiency is one of the three energy sustainability strategies, next to energy efficiency and renewable energies. We analyse to what extent European governments follow this strategy, by conducting a systematic document analysis of all available European National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and Long-Term Strategies (LTSs). We collect and categorise a total of 230 sufficiency-related policy measures, finding large differences between countries. We find most sufficiency policies in the transport sector, when classifying also modal shift policies to change the service quality of transport as sufficiency policies. Types of sufficiency policy instruments vary considerably from sector to sector, for instance the focus on financial incentives and fiscal instruments in the mobility sector, information in the building sector, and financial incentive/tax instruments in cross-sectoral application. Regulatory instruments currently play a minor role for sufficiency policy in the national energy and climate plans of EU member states. Similar to energy efficiency in recent decades, sufficiency still largely referred to as micro-level individual behaviour change or necessary exogenous trends that will need to take place. It is not treated yet as a genuine field of policy action to provide the necessary framework for enabling societal change.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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    A sectoral perspective on international climate governance : key findings and research priorities (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: This concluding article derives six major findings from the contributions to this special issue. First, the barriers and challenges to decarbonisation vary significantly across sectoral systems. Second, and similarly, the need and potential for the five functions of international governance institutions to contribute to effective climate protection also vary widely. Third, while the pattern is uneven, there is a general undersupply of international climate governance. Fourth, the sectoral analyses confirm that the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement play an important overarching role but remain limited in advancing effective sectoral governance. Fifth, while non-environmental institutions may present important barriers to decarbonisation, more synergistic effects are possible. Sixth, our sectoral approach provides a sound basis on which to identify sector-specific policy options. The paper then offers reflections on the merits and limitations of the sectoral approach, before identifying avenues for future research to further advance the agenda.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Who cares about coal? : Analyzing 70 years of German parliamentary debates on coal with dynamic topic modeling (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Despite Germany's Paris Agreement pledge and coal exit legislation, the political debate around carbon-intensive coal remains heated. Coal power and mining have played an important, yet changing role in the history of German politics. In this paper, we analyze the entire parliamentary debate on coal in the German parliament (Bundestag) from its inception in 1949 to 2019. For this purpose we extract the more than 870,000 parliamentary speeches from all protocols in the history of the Bundestag. We identify the 9167 speeches mentioning coal and apply dynamic topic modeling – an unsupervised machine learning technique that reveals the changing thematic structure of large document collections over time - to analyze changes in parliamentary debates on coal over the past 70 years. The trends in topics and their varying internal structure reflect how energy policy was discussed and legitimized over time: Initially, coal was framed as a driver of economic prosperity and guarantee of energy security. In recent years, the debate evolved towards energy transition, coal phase-out and renewable energy expansion. Germany’s smaller and younger parties, the Greens and the Left Party, debate coal more often in the context of the energy transition and climate protection than other parties. Our results reflect trends in other countries and other fields of energy policy. Methodologically, our study illustrates the potential of and need for computational methods to analyze vast corpora of text and to complement traditional social science methods.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Governance policies for a "just transition" : a case study in the Rhineland lignite mining district (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-10
    Description: This paper develops policy measures for a "just transition" based on a case study conducted in Germany's Rhineland lignite mining district. Semi-structured guided interviews served as the methodological approach. Expert interviews were conducted with representatives of citizen initiatives, trade unions and the Federal State of North Rhine-Westphalia. The results reveal the need for policy measures in different areas: First, employees working for subcontractors of the lignite industry have a high risk of losing their jobs because there are virtually no support policies for them. Second, there needs to be more input by civic initiatives regarding the process of structural change. And last, land needs to be prevented from becoming a scarce resource in the Rhineland area due to current mining legislation. We use an actor-centred institutionalist framework to derive governance approaches in line with the needs of various stakeholders.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    A Joint Soil‐Vegetation‐Atmospheric Modeling Procedure of Water Isotopologues: Implementation and Application to Different Climate Zones With WRF‐Hydro‐Iso (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: Water isotopologues, as natural tracers of the hydrological cycle on Earth, provide a unique way to assess the skill of climate models in representing realistic atmospheric‐terrestrial water pathways. This study presents the newly developed WRF‐Hydro‐iso, which is a version of the coupled atmospheric‐hydrological WRF‐Hydro model enhanced with a joint soil‐vegetation‐atmospheric description of water isotopologue motions. It allows the consideration of isotopic fractionation processes during water phase changes in the atmosphere, the land surface, and the subsurface. For validation, WRF‐Hydro‐iso is applied to two different climate zones, namely Europe and Southern Africa under the present climate conditions. Each case is modeled with a domain employing a 5 km grid‐spacing coupled with a terrestrial subgrid employing a 500 m grid‐spacing in order to represent lateral terrestrial water flow. A 10‐year slice is simulated for 2003–2012, using ERA5 reanalyses as driving data. The boundary condition of isotopic variables is prescribed with mean values from a 10‐year simulation with the Community Earth System Model Version 1. WRF‐Hydro‐iso realistically reproduces the climatological variations of the isotopic concentrations δPO18 and δPH2 from the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation. In a sensitivity analysis, it is found that land surface evaporation fractionation increases the isotopic concentrations in the rootzone soil moisture and slightly decreases the isotopic concentrations in precipitation. Lateral terrestrial water flow minorly affects these isotopic concentrations through changes in evaporation‐transpiration partitioning.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Global climate models are limited by their coarse resolution, which may reduce their meaningfulness. This problem can be circumvented for a specific region with regional climate models, which provide, for example, a detailed description of clouds and land‐atmosphere interactions. But it remains a question: How realistic is the model representation of water transport through the different compartments of the hydrological cycle, the atmosphere, the land, and the sea? A unique way to assess modeled water transport is the comparison to natural tracers, such as water isotopologues, which requires to include the fate of these water isotopologues in the model. This is what we pursue here with the newly developed WRF‐Hydro‐iso model. A model description and a proof of concept are provided for two climate zones, using the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation data set as reference.
    Description: Key Points: A new coupled atmospheric‐hydrological regional modeling system of water isotopologues is presented. Land surface evaporation fractionation increases the isotopic concentrations in the rootzone. Lateral terrestrial water flow has a minor effect on isotopic concentrations in the rootzone.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: German Federal Ministry of Science and Education
    Description: Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Year‐round sub‐seasonal forecast skill for Atlantic–European weather regimes (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: Weather regime forecasts are a prominent use case of sub‐seasonal prediction in the midlatitudes. A systematic evaluation and understanding of year‐round sub‐seasonal regime forecast performance is still missing, however. Here we evaluate the representation of and forecast skill for seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes in sub‐seasonal reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. Forecast calibration improves regime frequency biases and forecast skill most strongly in summer, but scarcely in winter, due to considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer. The average regime skill horizon in winter is about 5 days longer than in summer and spring, and 3 days longer than in autumn. The Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking tend to have the longest year‐round skill horizon, which is driven by their high persistence in winter. The year‐round skill is lowest for the European Blocking, which is common for all seasons but most pronounced in winter and spring. For the related, more northern Scandinavian Blocking, the skill is similarly low in winter and spring but higher in summer and autumn. We further show that the winter average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), but reduced following a weak SPV. Likewise, the year‐round average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following phases 4 and 7 of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) but reduced following phase 2, driven by winter but also autumn and spring. Our study thus reveals promising potential for year‐round sub‐seasonal regime predictions. Further model improvements can be achieved by reduction of the considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer, better understanding and modeling of blocking in the European region, and better exploitation of the potential predictability provided by weak SPV states and specific MJO phases in winter and the transition seasons.
    Description: The overall sub‐seasonal forecast performance (biases and skill) for predicting seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes is highest in winter and lowest in summer. The year‐round skill horizon is shortest for the European Blocking and longest for the Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking (see figure). Furthermore, the winter skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex but reduced following a weak one. Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 4 and 7 tend to increase and phase 2 to decrease the year‐round skill horizon.
    Description: Helmholtz‐Gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Malaco temperature reconstructions and numerical simulation of environmental conditions in the southeastern Carpathian Basin during the Last Glacial Maximum (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: We investigate the glacial climate conditions in the southeastern Carpathian Basin (Vojvodina, Serbia) based on the reconstruction of malacological palaeotemperatures and results from a high‐resolution regional climate simulation. Land snail assemblages from eight loess profiles are used to reconstruct July temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The malacological reconstructed temperatures are in good agreement with the simulated LGM July temperatures by the Weather Research and Forecast model. Both methods indicate increasing temperatures from the northwestern towards the southeastern parts of the study area. LGM aridity indices calculated based on the regional climate model data suggest more arid conditions in the southeastern parts compared with more humid conditions in the northwestern parts. However, for present‐day conditions, the moisture gradient is reversed, exhibiting more humid (arid) conditions in the southeast (northwest). An explanation for the reversed LGM aridity pattern is provided by an analysis of the prevailing wind directions over the South Banat district (Serbia). The prevailing moist northwesterly winds during summer are not able to compensate for the annual lack of moisture induced by the dry winds from the southeast that are more frequent during the LGM for the other seasons.
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318
    Description: Past Global Changes http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010439
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Variability of the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. Part I: Linear and nonlinear trends of the annual and seasonal precipitation (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: The Tianshan Mountains, with their status as ‘water tower’, receive quantities of precipitation that are among the highest in Central Asia. There are considerable knowledge gaps regarding the understanding of spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation over this water‐scarce region. Based on the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data set, this study evaluated the precipitation variations over Tianshan Mountains on different time scales by using Mann‐Kendall (M‐K) test approaches and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. The results show that (a) most parts of Tianshan experienced increasing annual precipitation during 1950–2016 while Western Tianshan, which is the wettest region, faced a downtrend of precipitation during the same 67 years; (b) the annual precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains has exhibited high‐frequency variations with 3‐ and 6‐year quasi‐periods and low‐frequency variations with 12‐, 27‐year quasi‐periods. On the decadal scale, Tianshan had two dry periods (1950–1962 and 1973–1984) and two wet periods (1962–1972 and 1985–2016) and has experienced a tendency of continuous humidification since 2004; (c) the precipitation over the Tianshan Mountains shows a strong seasonality. In total, 63.6% of all precipitation falls in spring and summer. Distinctive differences are found in seasonal precipitation variations among the sub‐Tianshan regions. Obvious upward trends of precipitation over Eastern Tianshan were found in all seasons, with Eastern Tianshan entering a humid period as early as 1986. Northern and Central Tianshan experienced a decreasing trend in summer and spring. However, in the other seasons, those two sub‐Tianshan regions have been in humid periods since the 1990s. The precipitation over Western Tianshan showed an upward trend in summer and autumn. The obvious downward trends in spring and winter have led to dry periods in these two seasons from 1997–2014 to 2008–2016, respectively.
    Description: Most parts of Tianshan experienced increasing annual precipitation during 1950–2016 while Western Tianshan, which is the wettest region, faced a downtrend of precipitation during the same 67 years. Distinctive differences are found in seasonal precipitation variations among the sub‐Tianshan regions.
    Description: Humboldt‐Universität zu Berlin National Natural Science Foundation of China
    Description: China Scholarship Council (CSC)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Uncertainties in Kelvin Waves in ECMWF Analyses and Forecasts: Insights From Aeolus Observing System Experiments (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-29
    Description: The European Space Agency Earth Explorer mission Aeolus with the first spaceborne Doppler Wind Lidar onboard provides global coverage of wind profiles twice per day. This paper discusses the impact of assimilating Aeolus winds on the quality of tropical analyses and forecasts using the observing system experiments of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather (ECMWF). Presented examples show that Aeolus wind profiles bring changes to the Kelvin wave structure in the layers with a significant vertical shear during the easterly phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation in the period May to September 2020. Comparing Kelvin waves in analyses and forecasts with and without Aeolus winds, it is argued that improved ECMWF forecasts in the tropical tropopause layer are due to vertically propagating Kelvin waves.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The tropics are the region with the largest uncertainties in the initial states for numerical weather prediction, called analyses. Analysis uncertainties are largest in the tropical upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS). One of the reasons is a lack of wind profiles which are more useful than temperature profiles in the tropics. This classical effect was described by Smagorinsky as “Not all data are equal in their information‐yielding capacity. Some are more equal than others.” ESA's ongoing Aeolus mission provides the first global wind profile observations from space. Despite their small number and relatively large random error, Aeolus winds have a positive impact on the quality of global weather forecasts, especially in the UTLS. In this paper, we discuss the impact of the Aeolus winds in UTLS focusing on the vertically propagating Kelvin waves, which are a major contributor to tropical variability. Several case studies are presented using the ECMWF model and data assimilation with and without Aeolus winds. The studied period May to September 2020 was characterized by a weakening easterly phase of the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). Results suggest that a stronger impact of Aeolus winds in May than later in summer was associated with the QBO and the background flow.
    Description: Key Points: Impact of assimilating Aeolus winds in the ECMWF system from May to September 2020 is coupled to the easterly QBO phase. Aeolus assimilation modifies the representation of vertically propagating Kelvin waves in the tropical UTLS. Forecast improvements in May 2020 could be associated with the alteration in the upward‐propagating Kelvin waves.
    Description: European Space Agency (ESA) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000844
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5207392
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
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    Caught in between : credibility and feasibility of the voluntary carbon market post-2020 (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-11-11
    Description: On the one hand, a large number of companies have committed to achieve net zero emissions and many of them foresee to offset some remaining emissions with carbon credits, suggesting a surge of future demand. Yet, the supply side of the voluntary carbon market is struggling to align its business model with the new legal architecture of the Paris Agreement. This article juxtaposes these two perspectives. It provides an overview of the plans of 482 major companies with some form of neutrality/net zero pledge and traces the struggle on the supply side of the voluntary carbon market to come up with a viable business model that ensures environmental integrity and contributes to achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement. Our analysis finds that if carbon credits are used to offset remaining emissions against neutrality objectives, these credits need to be accounted against the host countries' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to ensure environmental integrity. Yet, operationalizing this approach is challenging and will require innovative solutions and political support. Key policy insights: There is a growing mismatch between the faith placed in carbon credits by private sector companies and the continued quest for a common position of the main suppliers of the voluntary carbon market. The voluntary carbon market has not yet found a way to align itself with the new legal architecture of the Paris Agreement in a credible and legitimate way. Public policy support at the national and international level will be needed to operationalize a robust approach for the market’s future activities.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Presentation of the 5Ds in energy policy : a policy paper to show how Germany can regain its role as a pioneer in energy policy (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-11-11
    Description: The widely recognised Energiewende, ("energy transition") in Germany has lost its original momentum. We therefore address the question of how the transition process to a new energy system can be reignited. To do so, we developed the "5Ds approach", which lays the groundwork for a process analysis and the identification of important catalysts and barriers. Focusing on the five major fields required for the energy transition, we analyse the effects of: (1) Decarbonisation: How can efficiency and renewable energies be expanded successfully? (2) Digitalisation: Which digital solutions facilitate this conversion and would be suitable as sustainable business models? (3) Decentralisation: How can potential decentralised energy and efficiency opportunities be developed? (4) Democratisation: How can participation be strengthened in order to foster acceptance (and prevent "yellow vest" protests, etc.)? (5) Diversification of service: Which services can make significant contributions in the context of flexible power generation, demand-side management, storage and grids? Our paper comes to the conclusion that German policy efforts in the "5D" fields have been implemented very differently. Particularly with regard to democratisation, the opportunities for genuine participation among the different social actors must be further strengthened to get the Energiewende back on track. New market models are needed to meet the challenges of the energy transition and to increase the performance of "5D" through economic incentives.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Evidence-based narratives in European research programming (2021)
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    Publication Date: 2021-11-11
    Description: The article introduces and exemplifies the approach of evidence-based narratives (EBN). The methodology is a product of co-design between policy-making and science, generating robust intelligence for evidence-based policy-making in the Directorate General for Research and Innovation of the European Commission (DG RTD) under the condition of high uncertainty and fragmented evidence. The EBN transdisciplinary approach tackles practical problems of future-oriented policy-making, in this case in the area of programming for research and innovation addressing the Grand Societal Challenge related to climate change and natural resources. Between 2013 and 2018, the EU-funded RECREATE project developed 20 EBNs in a co-development process between scientists and policy-makers. All EBNs are supported with evidence about the underlying innovation system applying the technological innovation systems (TIS) framework. Each TIS analysis features the innovation, its current state of market diffusion and a description of the innovation investment case. Indicators include potential future market sizes, effects on employment and environmental and social benefits. Based on the innovation and TIS function analyses, the EBNs offer policy recommendations. The article ends with a critical discussion of the EBN approach.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    The challenges of assessing "collective progress" : design options for an effective global stocktake process under the UNFCCC ; final report (2021)
    Dessau-Roßlau : Umweltbundesamt
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: The Paris Agreement combines collective goals with individual countries' contributions. This hybrid approach does not guarantee that the individual contributions add up to what is required to meet the collective goals. The Paris Agreement therefore established the Global Stocktake. Its task is to "assess collective progress" towards achieving the long-term goals of the agreement as of 2023 and every five years thereafter. Corresponding to this role, this report addresses three questions: What should an effective Global Stocktake look like? What information and data are needed? Is it possible to execute an effective Global Stocktake within the mandate of the Paris Agreement?
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Sufficiency in transport policy : an analysis of EU countries' national energy and climate plans and long-term strategies (2021)
    Stockholm : European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: On the pathway to climate neutrality, EU member states are obliged to submit national energy and climate plans (NECPs) with planned policies and measures for decarbonization until 2030 and long-term strategies (LTSs) for further decarbonization until 2050. We analysed the 27 NECPs and 15 LTSs submitted by October 2020 using an interrater method. This paper focuses on energy sufficiency policies and measures in the transport sector. We found a total of 236 sufficiency policy measures with more than half of them (53 %) in the transport/mobility sector. Additionally, we found 41 measures that address two or more sectors (cross-sectoral measures). From the explicit sufficiency measures within the transport sector, 82 % aim at modal shift. A reduction of transport volumes is much less addressed. Countries plan to use mainly fiscal and economic instruments. Those are in many cases investments in infrastructure of low-carbon transport modes and taxation instruments. Plans on decarbonisation measures are also frequently mentioned. The majority of cross-sectoral measures are carbon taxes or tax reforms, also economic instruments. On the one hand it is encouraging that Member States strongly emphasize the transport sector in their NECPs and LTSs - at least quantitatively and concerning sufficiency measures - because this sector has been the worst-performing in climate mitigation so far. On the other hand, the measures described seem not sufficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and we doubt that the presented set of policy instruments will get the transport sector on track to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the necessary extent.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Scaling-up energy sufficiency on a European level through a bottom-up modelling approach : lessons and perspectives (2021)
    Stockholm : European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: The unprecedented challenge of reaching carbon neutrality before mid-century and a large share of it within 2030 in order to keep under the 1.5 or 2 °C carbon budgets, requires broad and deep changes in production and consumption patterns which, together with a shift to renewables and reinforced efficiency, need to be addressed through energy sufficiency. However, inadequate representations and obstacles to characterising and identifying sufficiency potentials often lead to an underrepresentation of sufficiency in models, scenarios and policies. One way to tackle this issue is to work on the development of sufficiency assumptions at a concrete level where various implications such as social consequences, environmental co-benefits, conditions for implementation can be discussed. This approach has been developed as the backbone of a collaborative project, gathering partners in 20 European countries at present, aiming for the integration of harmonised national scenarios into an ambitious net-zero European vision. The approach combines a qualitative discussion on the role of energy sufficiency in a "systemic" merit order for global sustainability, and a quantitative discussion of the level of sufficiency to be set to contribute to meeting 100 % renewables supply and net-zero emissions goals by 2050 at the latest. The latter is based on the use of a dashboard, which serves as a common descriptive framework for all national scenario trajectories and their comparison, with a view to harmonising and strengthening them through an iterative process. A set of key sufficiency-related indicators have been selected to be included in the dashboard, while various interrelated infrastructural, economic, environmental, social or legal factors or drivers have been identified and mapped. This paves the way for strengthening assumptions through the elaboration of "sufficiency corridors" defining a convergent, acceptable and sustainable level of energy services in Europe. The process will eventually inform the potential for sufficiency policies through a better identification of leverages, impacts and co-benefits.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Urban environmental protection international : stock-taking and outlook ; final report (2021)
    Dessau-Roßlau : Umweltbundesamt
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: The aim of this study is to contribute to a learning process about innovative and successful approaches to overcoming problems and challenges of urban environmental protection. To this end, a detailed overview of the importance of environmental challenges, political priorities and successful solutions in selected countries and cities is given. Based on this, the study analyzes specific success factors and discusses the extent to which these can be transferred and replicated to other cities. Finally, recommendations are made for cities, countries and the international community on how environmental protection at the urban level can be further strengthened. The role of German cities and institutions will also be discussed. The case studies analyzed include Belo Horizonte in Brazil, Moscow in Russia, Kochi in India, Beijing in China, Cape Town in South Africa and Jakarta in Indonesia. These cities were selected because they have already implemented successful policies, measures and other initiatives in the past. For each city, the study analyzes relevant policy documents in order to present the respective challenges and political priorities. The analysis aims to understand the effectiveness of the plans and instruments taking into account the national political environment. Despite the cross-sectoral approach, the analysis of each case study focuses on specific sectors in order to produce well-founded results. The success factors that are worked out based on this sectoral analysis are placed in a holistic context in order to be able to make generalizable statements about success factors.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Ambition coefficients : aligning baselines for international carbon markets with net zero pathways (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-23
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Regulation and mitigation of greenhouse gases (2021)
    Heidelberg : Springer
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    Publication Date: 2022-02-23
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Next-generation energy performance certificates and deep energy renovation (2021)
    Stockholm : European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-23
    Description: An important instrument to enhance the market uptake of energy-efficient new buildings and the energy-efficient renovation of existing buildings in the European Union (EU) are the Energy Performance Certificates (EPC). However, their implementation and use has varied between EU Member States. The European Commission has therefore provided funding to a number of Horizon2020 projects to develop next-generation EPC schemes. One of these is the QualDeEPC project, aiming to both improve quality and cross-EU convergence of EPC schemes, and particularly the link between EPCs and deep renovation. The objective of the project is to improve the practical implementation of the assessment, issuance, design, and use of EPCs as well as their renovation recommendations, in the participating countries and beyond. This paper presents the policy proposals and concepts for tools that the QualDeEPC project has developed as priorities for enhanced EPC schemes: - Improving the recommendations for renovation, which are provided on the EPCs, towards deep energy renovation - An online tool for comparing EPC recommendations to deep energy renovation recommendations - Creating Deep Renovation Network Platforms (One-stop Shops plus networking and joint communication of supply-side actors) - Regular mandatory EPC assessor training (on assessment and renovation recommendations) required for certification/accreditation and registry - Achieving a high user-friendliness of the EPC - Voluntary/mandatory advertising guidelines for EPCs - Improving compliance with the mandatory use of EPCs in real estate advertisements The paper will focus on the aspects related to improving the impact of EPCs for stimulating deep renovation. It will also present lessons learnt from the discussion with stakeholders at national and European workshops and from the testing of the proposals and tools in around 100 buildings, as well as from the first steps of their country-specific adaptation.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Climate diplomacy on hold, but not climate change : an analysis of international climate policy in the year of the pandemic (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-11-14
    Description: 2020 was meant to be the year of climate ambition. Then the COVID-19 pandemic struck, the Glasgow conference was postponed to November 2021, and climate policy generally appeared to have been put on the backburner. But towards the end of the year prospects seemed to brighten with a series of zero-emission pledges and the election of Joe Biden as US President. This article analyses what the year of the pandemic achieved in terms of combating climate change. This article first summarizes the virtual events that were organised to substitute for the physical UNFCCC conferences and what progress was or was not made on the outstanding items of the "Paris rulebook", implementation of the Gender Action Plan, and other items. Subsequently, the article surveys the status of NDC updates and to what extent recovery programmes have been used to advance climate action. Finally, the article takes a closer look at the current dynamics among non-Party actors. In summary, while formal negotiations essentially stopped in the year of the pandemic, the conservation did not. However, implementation is still lagging far behind the ambitious targets that have been set. While implementation is mostly the domain of national policy, the international process has a number of options at its disposal to foster climate action.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Strategies for climate neutrality : lessons from a meta-analysis of German energy scenarios (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-26
    Description: The ambition to reach climate-neutral energy systems requires profound energy transitions. Various scenario studies exist which present different options to reach that goal. In this paper, key strategies for the transition to climate neutrality in Germany are identified through a meta-analysis of published studies, including scenarios which achieve at least a 95 % greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2050 compared to 1990. It has been found that a reduction in energy demand, an expansion of domestic wind and solar energy, increased use of biomass as well as the importation of synthetic energy carriers are key strategies in the scenarios, with nuclear energy playing no role, and carbon capture and storage playing a very limited role. Demand-side solutions that reduce the energy demand have a very high potential to diminish the significant challenges of other strategies, which are all facing certain limitations regarding their sustainable potential. The level and and type of demand reductions differ significantly within the scenarios, especially regarding the options of reducing energy service demand.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Holocene lake‐level evolution of Lake Tiefer See, NE Germany, caused by climate and land cover changes (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-08-05
    Description: Lake‐level reconstructions are a key tool in hydro‐climate reconstructions, based on the assumption that lake‐level changes primarily reflect climatic changes. Although it is known that land cover changes can affect evapotranspiration and groundwater formation, this factor commonly receives little attention in the interpretation of past lake‐level changes. To address this issue in more detail, we explore the effects of land cover change on Holocene lake‐level fluctuations in Lake Tiefer See in the lowlands of northeastern Germany. We reconstruct lake‐level changes based on the analysis of 28 sediment records from different water depths and from the shore. We compare the results with land cover changes inferred from pollen data. We also apply hydrological modelling to quantify effects of land cover change on evapotranspiration and the lake level. Our reconstruction shows an overall lake‐level amplitude of about 10 m during the Holocene, with the highest fluctuations during the Early and Late Holocene. Only smaller fluctuations during the Middle Holocene can unambiguously be attributed to climatic fluctuations because the land cover was stable during that period. Fluctuations during the Early and Late Holocene are at least partly related to changes in natural and anthropogenic land cover. For several intervals the reconstructed lake‐level changes agree well with variations in modelled groundwater recharge inferred from land cover changes. In general, the observed amplitudes of lake‐level fluctuations are larger than expected from climatic changes alone and thus underline that land cover changes in lake catchments must be considered in climatic interpretations of past lake‐level fluctuations.
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656
    Description: Leibniz‐Gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001664
    Keywords: ddc:551.793 ; ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Synoptic circulation changes over Central Europe from 1900 to 2100: Reanalyses and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-27
    Description: While the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, and concerns about severe weather events are increasing, global projections of regional climate change are still uncertain due to model‐dependent changes in large‐scale atmospheric circulation, including over North Atlantic and Europe. Here, the Jenkinson–Collison classification of daily circulation patterns is used to evaluate past and future changes in their seasonal frequencies over Central Europe for the 1900–2100 period. Three reanalyses and eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, were used based on daily mean sea‐level pressure data. Best agreement in deriving relative frequencies of the synoptic types was found between the reanalyses. Global models can generally capture the interannual variability of circulation patterns and their climatological state, especially for the less frequent synoptic types. Based on historical data and the shared socioeconomic pathway 5 scenario, the evaluated trends show more robust signals during summer, given their lesser internal variability. Increasing frequencies were found for circulation types characterized by weak pressure gradients, mainly at the expense of decreasing frequencies of westerlies. Our findings indicate that given a high‐emission scenario, these signals will likely emerge from past climate variability towards the mid‐21st century for most altered circulation patterns.
    Description: Daily synoptic circulation patterns are derived using the Jenkinson–Collinson automated classification over Central Europe to evaluate past and future changes in their temporal frequencies. Reanalyses and eight global climate models from the CMIP6 were used based on the historical experiment and a high‐emission scenario. More robust signals were found during the summer season leading to emerging changes towards the mid‐21st century.
    Description: H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010665
    Description: EU International Training Network (ITN) Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub‐seasonal Extremes (CAFE)
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    Recent evidence for warmer and drier growing seasons in climate sensitive regions of Central America from multiple global datasets (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-26
    Description: Smallholder livelihoods throughout Central America are built on rain‐fed agriculture and depend on seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. Recent climatic shifts in this highly diverse region are not well understood due to sparse observations, and as the skill of global climate products have not been thoroughly evaluated. We examine the performance for several reanalysis and satellite‐based global climate data products (CHIRPS/CHIRTS, ERA5, MERRA‐2, PERSIANN‐CDR) as compared to the observation‐based GPCC precipitation dataset. These datasets are then used to evaluate the magnitude and spatial extent of hydroclimatic shifts and changes in aridity and drought over the last four decades. We focus on water‐limited regions that are important for rain‐fed agriculture and particularly vulnerable to further drying, and newly delineate those regions for Central America and Mexico by adapting prior definitions of the Central American Dry Corridor. Our results indicate that the CHIRPS dataset exhibits the greatest skill for the study area. A general warming of 0.2–0.8°C·decade−1 was found across the region, particularly for spring and winter, while widespread drying was indicated by several measures for the summer growing season. Changes in annual precipitation have been inconsistent, but show declines of 20–25% in eastern Honduras/Nicaragua and in several parts of Mexico. Some regions most vulnerable to drying have been subject to statistically significant trends towards summer drying, increases in drought and aridity driven by precipitation declines, and/or a lengthening of the winter dry season, highlighting areas where climate adaptation measures may be most urgent.
    Description: Over the past four decades, precipitation trends are the main driver of drought trends, with temperature trends playing a small role. The most widespread drying and increases in aridity have occurred during the summer growing season. Based on delimitations of water‐limited and climate‐sensitive regions (brown shading) that are important for rain‐fed agriculture, some of these highly vulnerable regions overlap with areas of significant drying (red), highlighting potential prioritization areas for climate adaptation measures. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Frias Institute of Advanced Studies (FRIAS) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003190
    Description: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
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    Cold-pool-driven convective initiation: using causal graph analysis to determine what convection-permitting models are missing (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-25
    Description: Cold-pool-driven convective initiation is investigated in high-resolution, convection-permitting simulations with a focus on the diurnal cycle and organization of convection and the sensitivity to grid size. Simulations of four different days over Germany were performed using the ICON-LEM model with grid sizes from 156 to 625 m. In these simulations, we identify cold pools, cold-pool boundaries and initiated convection. Convection is triggered much more efficiently in the vicinity of cold pools than in other regions and can provide as much as 50% of total convective initiation, in particular in the late afternoon. By comparing different model resolutions, we find that cold pools are more frequent, smaller and less intense in lower-resolution simulations. Furthermore, their gust fronts are weaker and less likely to trigger new convection. To identify how model resolution affects this triggering probability, we use a linear causal graph analysis. In doing so, we postulate a graph structure with potential causal pathways and then apply multi-linear regression accordingly. We find a dominant, systematic effect: reducing grid sizes directly reduces upward mass flux at the gust front, which causes weaker triggering probabilities. These findings are expected to be even more relevant for km-scale, numerical weather prediction models. We thus expect that a better representation of cold-pool-driven convective initiation will improve forecasts of convective precipitation.
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    An evaluation of operational and research weather forecasts for southern West Africa using observations from the DACCIWA field campaign in June–July 2016 (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-25
    Description: Reliable and accurate weather forecasts, particularly those of rainfall and its extremes, have the potential to improve living conditions in densely populated southern West Africa (SWA). The limited availability of observations has long impeded a rigorous evaluation of current state-of-the-art forecast models. The field campaign of the Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) project in June–July 2016 has created an unprecedentedly dense set of measurements from surface stations and radiosondes. Here we present results from a comprehensive evaluation of both numerical model forecasts and satellite products using these data on a regional and local level. Results reveal a substantial observational uncertainty showing considerable underestimations in satellite estimates of rainfall and low-cloud cover with little correlation at the local scale. Models have a dry bias of 0.1–1.9 mm·day−1 in rainfall and too low column relative humidity. They tend to underestimate low clouds, leading to excess surface solar radiation of 43 W·m−2. Remarkably, most models show some skill in representing regional modulations of rainfall related to synoptic-scale disturbances, while local variations in rainfall and cloudiness are hardly captured. Slightly better results are found with respect to temperature and for the post-onset rather than for the pre-onset period. Delicate local features such as the Maritime Inflow phenomenon are also rather poorly represented, leading to too cool, dry and cloudy conditions at the coast. Differences between forecast days 1 and 2 are relatively small and hardly systematic, suggesting a relatively quick error saturation. Using explicit convection leads to more realistic spatial variability in rainfall, but otherwise no marked improvement. Future work should aim at improving the subtle balance between the diurnal cycles of low clouds, surface radiation, the boundary layer and convection. Further efforts are also needed to improve the observational system beyond field campaign periods.
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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    Hardwired towards transformation? : Assessing global climate governance for power sector decarbonization (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: Fully decarbonising global power supply is essential to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. A wide range of inter- and transnational governance institutions exist that work towards the transformation of the power sector. But are these governance efforts sufficient to address the challenges? To address this question the article first identifies governance needs on the basis of systemic sector-specific transformation challenges and discusses the potential for international governance to address them. Second, the paper surveys existing inter- and transnational institutions and assess to what extent they exploit the potential of international governance. The analysis shows that many of the governance needs are already being satisfied to some extent, particularly with respect to the deployment of renewable energy. It also shows that a significant blind spot remains: the phase-out of fossil fuels for electricity generation. The detailed analysis enables us to identify options for enhancing the governance landscape.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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    Design options for the global stocktake : lessons from other review processes (2020)
    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-20
    Description: While the Paris Agreement (PA) has enshrined ambitious long-term objectives, the current actions of the Parties to the Agreement fall far short of these goals. The Global Stocktake (GST), established in Art. 14 of the PA, may help narrow this gap between ambition and action: its purpose is to review the implementation of the PA and to assess the collective progress of the international community towards Paris goals. While some general modalities on how to conduct the GST have been adopted, the details are still to be determined. The objective of this report is to analyze existing international regimes as regards their review processes, the contribution of these review processes to various governance functions and, finally, to derive lessons for the GST. Processes analyzed include: the design of the upcoming Global Stocktake itself, the Talanoa Dialogue (TD) which is the direct precursor of the GST, the Agenda 2030 High-Level Political Forum (HLPF), which features a regular stocktaking process focused on progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the review processes of the UN human rights system (UNHRS) and the review processes and assessment panels of the Montreal Protocol (MP). The analysis of each review process is organised in four section: (1) political background and context, (2) technical and organisational details of the processes, (3) interface between the political and technical processes, and (4) how the review processes contribute to achieving the objectives of the respective regime, particularly governance functions of the regime (guidance and signal, transparency and accountability, and knowledge and learning).
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Grounding social foundations for integrated assessment models of climate change (2020)
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    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
    Description: Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are commonly used by decision makers in order to derive climate policies. IAMs are currently based on climate-economics interactions, whereas the role of social system has been highlighted to be of prime importance on the implementation of climate policies. Beyond existing IAMs, we argue that it is therefore urgent to increase efforts in the integration of social processes within IAMs. For achieving such a challenge, we present some promising avenues of research based on the social branches of economics. We finally present the potential implications yielded by such social IAMs.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Vertical integration in a multi-level governance system using the example of the German resource efficiency programme (2020)
    Abingdon : Routledge
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-09
    Description: The ultimate goal of German Resource Efficiency Programme (ProgRess) is to make the extraction and use of natural resources more sustainable and reduce associated environmental pollution as much as possible. By doing this - also with responsibility towards future generations - the programme should create a prerequisite for securing a long-term high quality of life. To bring the policy approaches formulated in ProgRess to reality, efforts to implement resource efficiency measures have to be increased at all levels - from international to regional to local. The chapter intends to provide an impetus for the current debate on ProgRess policy development. The chapter identifies, analyses and describes deficits and possibilities of vertical integration of the German programme in particular and derives recommendations for action which may also serve as indications for other strategies. The following sections are based on results of the advisory report "Vertical integration of the national resource efficiency programme ProgRess (VertRess)", conducted by the German Institute of Urban Affairs (Difu) and the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy on behalf of the German Environmental Agency (UBA) and the Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU).
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    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Bridging the ambition gap : the situation-ambition approach for crediting baselines under article 6.4 (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: contributiontoperiodical , doc-type:contributionToPeriodical
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    Final quantification report : D2.7 ; calculating and operationalising the multiple benefits of energy efficiency in Europe - COMBI (2020)
    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Any energy efficiency impact evaluation can be done from different analytical perspectives, e.g. the investor/end-user perspective, program administrator perspective or the societal perspective. COMBI applies the "societal perspective", as this is most relevant for policy-making. COMBI draws on a reference scenario until the year 2030 including existing (partially already ambitious) policies. By modelling 21 sets of "energy efficiency improvement" (EEI) actions, a second efficiency scenario was modelled amounting to additional energy savings of around 8% p.a. in 2030, that is comparable to the EUCO+33 to EUCO+35 scenario. This D2.7 quantification report summarises the quantification approaches applied in the COMBI project and main project findings. It therefore draws on other COMBI reports that contain this information in greater detail in order to summarise quantifications. The report is structured in three main sections: 1. The COMBI approach and methods, explaining key methodological approaches both for individual impact quantifications and for the aggregation of impacts 2. Quantification results, giving an overview on main figures of quantified indicators and 3. Insights from cross-impact analysis, which gives a comparison between monetised impacts and presents their use for Cost-Benefit calculations in the COMBI online tool.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    A sectoral perspective on climate clubs (2020)
    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Much of the current literature on climate clubs sees mitigation costs creating free rider incentives as the main problem of climate policy. Climate clubs are supposed to solve this problem by creating additional incentives for mitigation. Looking more in detail, one sees that the situation differs from sector to sector. Some industry sectors indeed have substantial cost and competitiveness issues. In others such as electricity and transport, there are costs at micro level but balance for economy and society as a whole is rather positive. International climate policy in general and clubs in particular should therefore be tailored to sectoral specifics.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Multiple impacts of energy efficiency in policy-making and evaluation : D8.2 ; policy report on COMBI results (2020)
    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: The COMBI project aimed at quantifying the multiple non-energy benefits of energy efficiency in the EU-28 area and incorporate those multiple impacts into decision-support frameworks for policy-making. Therefore, all multiple impacts of energy efficiency are analysed from an overall societal view in the project. The COMBI policy recommendations resulting from the evaluation outcomes are presented in this report. COMBI draws on a reference scenario until the year 2030 including existing policies. By modelling 21 sets of "energy efficiency improvement" (EEI) actions, a second efficiency scenario was modelled amounting to additional energy savings of around 8% p.a. in 2030, and that is comparable to the EUCO+33 to EUCO+35 scenario. All figures quantified by COMBI relate to additional values, i.e. additional impacts resulting from additional EEI actions beyond the reference scenario as a consequence of additional policies. The project quantified in total 31 individual impact indicators with appropriate state-of-the-art models.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    The Eon/RWE deal : market dominance and shareholder value policy with regulatory approval (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: On September 17, 2019, EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager allowed the electricity company Eon to take over and break up RWE subsidiary Innogy under lenientconditions. But there are numerous experts who have a different opinion and argue that the EU Commission approval is a "decision of enormous importance" that will "fundamentally change the entire sector". The result of this decision is that this mega-deal creates two monolithic giants in the German energy sector with unprecedented market power. If one compares the situation with the purchase of the electricity supplier Nuon by Vattenfall in 2009, questions arise. Back then, the competition authorities forced Vattenfall to divest parts of Nuon's business in individual cities, which resulted in the supplier "lekker energie". Following this example, the competition authorities should have consistently forced Eon to sell parts of the business, such as larger distribution companies. A transaction of this magnitude should always be viewed critically in competition law. The legitimate question therefore arises as to why the German and European competition authorities (the Federal Cartel Office, the Federal Network Agency, the Monopolies Commission and the European Competition Commission) faced this deal with barely audible criticism and why they did not react with far-reaching prohibition requirements. "Competition doubts are certainly justified". Because if the two largest German energy groups completely eliminate each other's competition and completely divide up their business areas among themselves, this will have far-reaching consequences for the energy sector. Especially against the background that the energy transition in Germany has so far been characterised by decentralised structures and civic participation (especially in the case of electricity generation from renewable energies). In this paper, the authors will demonstrate what this Eon/RWE deal means for competition and the energy transition.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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    Let's justify! : How regime complexes enhance the normative legitimacy of global governance (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: This theory note develops a theoretical approach which integrates the negative spillovers that international institutions often impose on each other into our thinking about their normative legitimacy. Our approach draws on the political philosophy of Rainer Forst which revolves around the right to justification. It suggests that regime complexes facilitate the breakup of institution-specific orders of justification by prompting invested actors to justify negative spillovers vis-a-vis each other. Thus, regime complexes enable more encompassing justifications of negative spillovers than stand-alone international institutions. Against this backdrop, we submit that the proliferation of regime complexes represents normative progress in global governance.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Inventives for private sectory participation in the article 6.4 mechanism : discussion paper (2020)
    Berlin : German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement explicitly acknowledges the need to incentivize and facilitate the participation of private entities in the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. Under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), private sector actors had already the opportunity to participate in a new and fast-growing market. However, they faced numerous challenging investment barriers. The study provides an overview on key factors and barriers determining private sector participation in Article 6 mechanisms. It distinguishes between the three topics demand side factors, rules and standards for market mechanisms, and supply side factors and provides for each of them options to mitigate or overcome barriers. In a short analysis, it further explores three of the identified options: - Improving the design and support of national systems and capacities is an important pre-requisite for the private sector to be able to generate and sell ITMOs - The up-scaling of mitigation activities e. g. through (sub-) sector level crediting, and policy crediting helps private sector actors to benefit from economies of scale - Exploring the potential of digitization of measuring, reporting and verification (MRV), e. g. the use of sensors, internet of things, artificial intelligence and blockchain to make the project cycle more efficient and reduce transaction costs. Overall, the report stresses the importance of host country readiness to provide the private sector with a robust and trusted environment that allows for the adoption of Article 6 mechanisms.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Updating the waste prevention programme : preparing the foundations for updating the waste prevention programme based on an analysis and evaluation of the implementation status ; final report (2020)
    Dessau-Roßlau : Umweltbundesamt
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: The waste prevention program (WPP) from 2013 must be evaluated every 6 years and updated if necessary. The review and evaluation of the implementation of the WPP took place within the scope of the project. Based on the analysis results for the implementation of the WPP at federal, state and municipal level and an assessment of existing prevention potentials, concrete proposals for a possible further development and updating of the program on prioritized waste streams and corresponding priority prevention approaches were developed. In addition, structural adjustment and change needs of the WPP were worked out and further research was shown.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Design options for the new international market mechanism under article 6.4 of the Paris agreement (2020)
    Dessau-Roßlau : Umweltbundesamt
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: In this project commissioned by the German Environment Agency, important aspects of the mechanism under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement were examined in more detail. This mechanism is to succeed the CDM under the Kyoto Protocol from 2021 onwards, but it will contain decisive improvements, especially with regard to a robust accounting of emission reductions and better integration into the national climate policy of the host country. The report is addressed to the international experts, in particular to the delegates to the climate conference and observers, and is therefore written in English. A German summary is included. The following topics are covered: How does the mechanism achieve an overall reduction of global emissions? Are there opportunities to use benchmarks to establish baselines? Can contributions to increasing ambition be made by using Art. 6.4? What contribution can the voluntary market make to increasing ambition in the future? Introduction of incentives for the participation of private companies under Art. 6.4 of the PA. The role of the Art. 6.4 mechanism on the way to a net zero emission world. The project provides a contribution to the general discussion in the EU as well as to the Article 6 - Negotiations under the UNFCCC. It is a contribution that presents backgrounds and interrelationships for individual questions concerning the design of the new market mechanisms under Article 6 and can thus contribute to a more informed decision-making process.Since there are, however, several different ways of designing a mechanism that can avoid double counting and provide incentives for increasing ambition, this project is only one of several current contributions to the international discussion.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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    Eco-innovation observatory : country profile 2018-2019 Germany (2020)
    Brussels : European Commission
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Germany's eco-innovation performance has declined compared to previous reports and scores 123 against 100 of the EU average. It is still quite high with respect to the input side of eco-innovation and relatively good, i.e. above EU average concerning socio-economic and eco- innovative outputs. However, the revised eco-innovation index shows weaknesses in eco-innovation activities and environmental outcomes. All in all, Germany ranks 6 this year.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Options for fostering a net-zero GHG emission world under the Paris article 6.4 mechanism : discussion paper (2020)
    Berlin : German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: The new mechanism defined under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement is supposed to allow for international cooperation with regard to climate change mitigation and thereby enable an increase in overall mitigation. Nevertheless, the design of the mechanism under Article 6.4 should also make sure that it is not be in conflict with the long-term goal of net-zero GHG emissions but even better foster national pathways leading to this objective. Building this into the mechanism requires to shift the focus from short- and mid-term considerations to the long-term perspective in one way or another. This discussion paper explores three different approaches that may help to foster the long-term objective of net-zero GHG emissions in the operationalization of Article 6.4, namely positive and negative lists, additionality with regard to a baseline consistent with both, NDCs and long-term targets, as well as adaptation of existing instruments and criteria from climate finance. The detailed discussion of the ap-proaches shows that the approaches should not be seen as mutually exclusive but rather as comple-mentary to each other. From the analyses, two storylines emerge how to combine aspects of the differ-ent approaches in a reasonable way to foster the long-term objective of net-zero GHG emissions under Article 6.4.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Starting low, reaching high? : Sequencing in EU climate and energy policies (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: In order to achieve the UNFCCC Paris Agreement goals, climate policies worldwide require considerable ratcheting-up. Policy sequencing provides a framework for analysing policy process dynamics that facilitate ratcheting-up. We apply a sequencing perspective to two key EU climate and energy policies, the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and the Renewable Energy Directive (RED), to comparatively test the empirical relevance of sequencing for single policies - in addition to sequencing across policies, which has been the focus of sequencing theory so far - and to uncover specific mechanisms. Our results confirm that sequencing, based on triggering positive and controlling negative feedback, is relevant both within and across policies. Policy choices that may facilitate ratcheting-up include tools to control costs, the possibility to centralise and harmonise in a multi-level governance context, options for compensation of reluctant actors, and the encouragement of learning processes.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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    COP25 in search of lost time for action : an assessment of the Madrid climate conference (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: Last year's conference of the global climate change regime took place from 2 until 15 December 2019 in Madrid, Spain. Despite marking a new record for overtime in the history of the UNFCCC, the conference did not only fail to meet the increasing public demand for swift and strong climate action, it also failed on its formal mandate to finalise the Paris rulebook. A record number of issues were left unresolved and shelved for the next session. COP25 thereby highlighted how much work still lies ahead both domestically and internationally if 2020 is to see a step-up in climate action that is consistent with the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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    Transformation processes of energy companies : application to Jordan (2020)
    Amman : Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Jordan & Iraq
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-02-18
    Description: The energy system of Jordan is facing a rise in energy demand while at the same time having quite limited own conventional energy resources. Especially because of their high import dependency, Jordan is starting to change its energy system and puts a higher focus on renewable energy (like wind and solar) and energy efficiency. In this short paper the authors discuss the transformation of energy companies in Germany and highlight the possibilities of energy efficiency services. Furthermore, they examinate the transferability to Jordan, based on the results of a questionnaire among Jordan energy experts. Due to the low level of research knowledge in the specific field, this is an exploratory research approach. The role, challenges and opportunities of Jordan's state-owned National Electric Power Company NEPCO have been highlighted.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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    Global climate (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-10
    Description: The annual Climate Change Conference took place on 2-15 December in Katowice, Poland. It included the twenty-fourth Conference of the Parties (COP-24) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the fourteenth Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP-14), the resumed first Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (MOP-1), and their subsidiary bodies. The conference had two main objectives: operationalizing the Paris Agreement by adopting detailed rules for its implementation and starting the process of strengthening the parties' climate protection contributions.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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    Harnessing international climate governance to drive a sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-11-23
    Description: The impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and the global response to it will co-determine the future of climate policy. The recovery packages responding to the impacts of the pandemic may either help to chart a new sustainable course, or they will further cement existing high-emission pathways and thwart the achievement of the Paris Agreement objectives. This article discusses how international climate governance may help align the recovery packages with the climate agenda. For this purpose, the article investigates five key governance functions through which international institutions may contribute: send guidance and signals, establish rules and standards, provide transparency and accountability, organize the provision of means of implementation, and promote collective learning. Reflecting on these functions, the article finds that the process under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), together with other international institutions, could promote sustainable recovery in several ways.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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    Unlocking green financing for building energy retrofit : a survey in the western China (2020)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-07
    Description: Energy service companies (ESCOs) play crucial role in building energy efficiency retrofit sector. However limited access to green financing has prevented ESCOs in their expansions in China. This paper, based on a survey of 469 samples and on-site visiting to and interviewing relevant 50 actors of ESCOs, financial institutions and local housing authorities, identifies main barriers of accessing to green financing at both systemic policy level and operational meso and micro level in China, and analyzes good practices at local level that overcome the barriers. The paper concludes that, although there are barriers existing at the policy level in China, substantial attentions and priorities should be given to take actions for overcoming the barriers existed at the operational meso and micro level. The paper suggests that the good practices of capacity building for ESCOs and local financial sector, intensifying participation of intermediate organizations or facilitators and diversifying financial sources and funding mechanisms and models that emerge from the local level should be disseminated in China.
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    Conflicts of climate change mitigation actions with the Sustainable Development Goals : creating a systematic overview by the example of renewable energy technologies (2020)
    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-11-10
    Description: Despite a strong connection between the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, climate change mitigation actions and sustainable development objectives are oftentimes not aligned efficiently, causing conflicts between the objectives. This thesis creates a systematic overview of conflicts of three renewable energy technologies with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by a literature review in Web of Science. The technologies solar energy, wind energy and hydropower function as examples for climate change mitigation actions. Out of 530 screened articles, 63 demonstrated conflicts. The systematic overview reveals that conflicts are different for each technology, but conflicts in regard to biodiversity loss and the degradation of natural habitats (SDG 15) and inequalities (SDG 10) were frequently identified for all technologies. The results of the systematic overview suggest that the site selection and the decision-making process on the construction of renewable energy projects are crucial stages to avoid conflicts with the SDGs.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Type: masterthesis , doc-type:masterThesis
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    Smart Governance: Kashiwa-no-ha smart city in Japan as a model for future urban development? (2020)
    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-11-10
    Description: Since urban processes need models of possible futures (referred to as travelling concepts) to drive their development, this study investigates whether planned-from-scratch smart city Kashiwa-no-ha International Campus Town Initiative can produce such an image with its smart governance approach, that is combined with an urban living lab. Using geographical governance research in relation to urban development processes as a framework, this master's thesis derives its own definition of the fuzzy concept of smart governance within the smart city vision based on a socio-geographical understanding of space, here referred to as Smart Urban Governance. Additionally, a set of indicators for the operationalisation of Smart Urban Governance is designed and applied to the case study. Methodologically, the thesis pursues a qualitative approach and, in this context, carries out a descriptive and normative governance analysis of Kashiwa-no-ha on the basis of the existing literature and empirical surveys conducted by the author. In summary, the strong role of academia in the urban planning context of community-building in Kashiwa-no-ha is exemplary and has led to a collaborative code of conduct between the traditional actors, mediated by a public-private-academic partnership, as well as to co-innovation between the city, developers, and citizens in form of a public-private-people partnership. Although the flagship project successfully addresses a large number of the Smart Urban Governance indicators defined in this context, there is potential for improvement, for example, in terms of participation, transparency, inclusion, and public spaces. Since Kashiwa-no-ha Smart City is still in an implementation phase until 2030, the thesis concludes with a forecast and a recommendation for action based on a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats analysis.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: masterthesis , doc-type:masterThesis
    Format: application/pdf
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