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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 27-41 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Groundwater monitoring networks ; Information reliability ; Information scales ; Kalman filtering in groundwater
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The extensive use of groundwater resources has increased the need for developing cost-effective monitoring networks to provide an indication of the degree to which the subsurface environment has been affected by human activities. This study presents a cost-effective approach to the design of groundwater flow monitoring networks. The groundwater network design is formulated with two problem formats: maximizing the statistical monitoring power for specified budget constraint and minimizing monitoring cost for statistical power requirement. The statistical monitoring power constraint is introduced with an information reliability threshold value. A branch and bound technique is employed to select the optimal solution from a discrete set of possible network alternatives. The method is tested to the design of groundwater flow monitoring problem in the Pomona County, California.
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  • 2
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 65-81 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Lagoons ; Ponds ; Facultative ; First-order kinetics ; Complete mixing ; Probabilistic ; Uncertainty ; Environmental ; Stochastic differential equations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Two stochastic models are developed to describe the BOD output (i.e. effluent) variation of facultative aerated lagoons in series. One of the models uses the uncertainty analysis (UA) technique and the other is based on the moment equation solution methodology of stochastic differential equations (SDE's). The former considers a second-order approximation of the expectation (SOAE) and a first-order approximation of the variance (FOAV). The SDE model considers that output variability is accounted for by random variations in the rate coefficient. Comparisons are provided. Calibration and verification of the two models are aciieved by using field observations from two different lagoon systems in series. The predictive performances of the two models are compared with each other and with another SDE model, presented in a previous paper, that considers input randomness. The three methods show similar predictive performances and provide good predictions of the mean and standard deviation of the lagoon effluent BOD concentrations and thus are considered as appropriate methodologies.
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  • 3
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 89-103 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: maximum precipitation depths ; extreme-value distributions ; seasonal variation ; partial duration series ; model misspecification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Quantile estimates of the annual maximum distribution can be obtained by fitting theoretical distributions to the maxima in separate seasons, e.g. to the monthly maxima. In this paper, asymptotic expressions for the bias and the variance of such estimates are derived for the case that the seasonal maxima follow a Gumbel distribution. Results from these expressions are presented for a situation with no seasonal variation and for maximum precipitation depths at Uccle/Ukkel (Belgium). It is shown that the bias is often negligible and that the variance reduction by using seasonal maxima instead of just the annual maxima strongly depends on the seasonal variation in the data. A comparison is made between the asymptotic standard error of quantile estimates from monthlymaxima with those from a partial duration series. Much attention is paid to the effect of model misspecification on the resulting quantile estimates of the annual maximum distribution. The use of seasonal maxima should be viewed with caution when the upper tail of this distribution is of interest.
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  • 4
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 193-208 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic tidal modeling ; parameter identification ; model calibration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In this paper a parameter estimation algorithm is developed to estimate uncertain parameters in two dimensional shallow water flow models. Since in practice the open boundary conditions of these models are usually not known accurately, the uncertainty of these boundary conditions has to be taken into account to prevent that boundary errors are interpreted by the estimation procedure as parameter fluctuations. Therefore the open boundary conditions are embedded into a stochastic environment and a constant gain extended Kalman filter is employed to identify the state of the system. Defining a error functional that measures the differences between the filtered state of the system and the measurements, a quasi Newton method is employed to determine the minimum of this functional. To reduce the computational burden, the gradient of the criterium that is required using the quasi Newton method is determined by solving the adjoint system.
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  • 5
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 217-226 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Exponential distribution ; bivariate exponential distribution ; distribution of flood volume ; partial duration series
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.
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  • 6
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 254-254 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 7
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 277-294 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Water distribution ; optimization ; nonlinear programming ; integer programming ; chance constraints ; rehabilation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents the mathematical development of an integer — nonlinear programming chance — constrained optimization model for the minimum cost rehabilitation/replacement of water distribution system components. Particular attention is given to the handling of uncertainties in the roughness factors and the loading conditions including both the random demand and preassure head requirements. The advantages of the proposed model include the ability to: 1) handle the optimal timing of rehabilitation/replacement for water distribution system components; 2) link a mixed-integer linear program solver, a nonlinear program solver, and a hydraulic simulator into an optimization framework; 3) handle the uncertainties of some of the variables; 4) incorporate various kinds of cost functions; and 5) handle multiple loading conditions.
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  • 8
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 309-320 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Entropy ; reliability ; redundancy ; water distribution networks ; nodal pair reliability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Entropy based expressions for measurement of reliability and redundancy have recently been reported. These measures approach assessment of the reliability of the distribution network from the intrinsic redundancy of the network layout. The paper extends earlier work on entropy functions by including a more explicit statement of the alternate paths available in the network and by recognizing that under certain circumstances, e.g., failure of some part of the network work, an outflow link from a node under normal working condition may become an inflow link to the same node. The measures are assessed by comparison with parameters measuring Nodal Pair Reliability and percentage of flow supplied at adequate pressure for a range of networks and link failure conditions in this networks. The entropy measures are shown to reflect changes in the network reliability, as measured by these two comparative parameters, very well.
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  • 9
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 1-16 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Partial duration series ; unbiased risk ; Bayesian risk
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Conventional design practice aims at obtaining optimal estimates of floods with specified exceedance probabilities. Such estimates are, however, known on the average to be exceeded more frequently than expected. Alternatively, methods focusing on the expected exceedance probability can be used. Two different methods are considered here; the first is based on the sample distribution of true exceedance probabilities. The second is a Bayesian analogue using the likelihood function and a noninformative prior to describe the variability of exceedance probabilities. Appropriate analytical solutions are presented in both cases using the partial duration series approach.
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  • 10
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 55-68 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Bivariate probability distribution ; random variables ; zero marginals ; Finch-Groblicki method
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A vivariate probability density function (pdf),f(x 1,x 2), admissible for two random variables (X 1,X 2), is of the form $$f(x_1 x_2 ) = f_1 (x_1 )f_2 (x_2 )[1 + \rho \{ F_1 (x_1 ),F_2 (x_2 )\} ]$$ where ρ(u, v) (u=F 1(x 1),v=F 2(x 2)) is any function on the unit square that is 0-marginal and bounded below by−1 andF 1(x 1) andF 2(x 2) are cumulative distribution functions (cdf) of marginal probability density functionsf 1(x 1) andf 2(x 2). The purpose of this study is to determinef(x 1,x 2) for different forms of ρ(u,v). By considering the rainfall intensity and the corresponding depths as dependent random variables, observed and computed probability distributionsF 1(x 1),F(x 1/x 2),F 2(x 2), andF(x 2/x 1) are compared for various forms of ρ(u,v). Subsequently, the best form of ρ(u,v) is specified.
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  • 11
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 77-87 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Flood ; random ; distribution ; estimation ; probability ; entropy ; fractile constraints
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations. Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable. Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods. It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.
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  • 12
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 125-134 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis ; random fields ; simulation ; non-homogeneous fields
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In several fields of Geophysics, such as Hydrology, Meteorology or Oceanography, it is often useful to generate random fields, displaying the same variabilitity as the observed variables. Usually, these synthetic data are used as forcing fields into numerical models, to test the sensitivity of their outputs to the variability of the inputs. Examples can be found in subsurface or surface Hydrology and in Meteorology with General Circulation Models (GCM). Different techniques have already been proposed, often based on the spectral representation of the random process, with, usually, assumptions of stationarity. This paper suggests that Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, which leads to the decomposition of the covariance kernel on the set of its eigen-functions, is a possible answer to this problem. The convergence and accuracy of the method are shown to depend mainly on the number of EOFs retained in the expansion of the covariance kemel. This result is confirmed by a comparison with the turning band method and a matrix technique. Furthermore, a synthetic example of non-homogencous fields shows the interest of EOF analysis in the direct simulation of such fields.
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  • 13
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 173-188 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Entropy ; spectral analysis ; streamflow forecasting ; univariate model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper, the first in a series of two, employs the principle of maximum entropy (POME) via maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) to develop a univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting. Three cases of streamflow forecasting are investigated: forward forecasting, backward forecasting (or reconstruction) and intermittent forecasting (or filling in missing records). Application of the model is discussed in the second paper.
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  • 14
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 155-171 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Kinetic non-equilibrium ; residence time ; spatially variable chemical reactions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A method for simulating field scale transport of kinetically adsorbing solutes is described. The non-equilibrium adsorption is modeled as a birth and death process and is coupled with the particle tracking approach using the first two moments of the distribution of the particle residence time, i.e., the time that a solute particle stays in the liquid phase. A single residence time distribution, regardless of the initial and final phase, is demonstrated to yield an accurate description of chemical kinetics in the vast majority of field scale problems. The first two moments of the residence time distribution are derived as a function of chemical reaction rates and the transport time interval Δt. It is shown that the first moment of the residence time represents a measure of the speed of the chemical reaction relative to the transport time scale Δt which is chosen depending on the velocity field. The second moment of the residence time reflects the relative importance of the chemical kinetics versus local equilibrium conditions for the given transport time step Δt. The simulated spatial moments of the contaminant plume are compared in the one-dimensional case with available analytical solutions to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed technique. A two-dimensional case for stratified formations is presented to study the transport behavior for heterogeneous velocity fields and variable distribution coefficient, hypothesized as being negatively correlated with hydraulic conductivity. The results show that the enhanced plume spreading and the statistics of the arrival time distribution appear to be more sensitive to the spatially variable distribution coefficient than to the kinetics alone. In fact, the second spatial moment was almost doubled in the case of spatially variable distribution coefficient.
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  • 15
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 239-251 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Parameter estimation ; maximum likelihood estimation ; stochastic partial differential equation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Part I of this series of two papers (Unny, 1989) dealt with the theoretical derivation of the moment equations for the stochastic partial differential equation in the water table depth forced by stochastic rainfall input. Part I also developed a maximum likelihood estimation procedure for parameter determination. The primary aim of the present manuscript is the application of the parameter estimation procedure to the Borden aquifer, an aquifer designated as an experimental site, where extensive field measurements have been carried out. Estimates of hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity for the Borden aquifer, derived from the maximum likelihood algorithm, have been compared with estimates obtained by “traditional” procedures. The paper also presents the simulated solution of the governing differential equation in the one dimensional problem applied to the Borden aquifer.
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  • 16
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 280-294 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 17
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 261-266 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Drought ; drought indices
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Drought detection, monitoring and indices are closely related to its definition. The specific definition chosen for a particular drought analysis will affect the procedures one uses in drought detection and monitoring. The traditional Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been proven to be ineffective in regions of predominantly irrigated agriculture. The recently developed ALERT (Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time) system is proposed for use in monitoring the spatial and temporal variations of drought in real time. The ALERT system uses standardized instruments, radio frequencies, software and hardware. It was originally developed as a flash flood waming system by local flood control districts and the National Weather Service. However, now it has expanded to over 100 other uses in the areas of natural and man-made disaster detection and warning. The successful ALERT system indicates the need for the continued development of a national drought monitoring index that is applicable to a wide range of climate, hydrologic and water resource environments.
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  • 18
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 19
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 195-204 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Infinite dam ; resolvent operator ; Lévy process ; integrated Markov chain
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract We consider an infinite-capacity storage system. The cumulative input to the system is assumed to be either (a) a non-decreasing Lévy process or (b) an integrated continuous-time Markov chain. Reward accumulates at a rate depending on the instantaneous release rate. The objective is to choose the release rule in such a way as to maximize the expected total discounted return. In this note we show how to determine the expected discounted return when the release rate is either constant or a linear function of the content.
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  • 20
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 7 (1993), S. 213-239 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic hydrology ; perturbation ; random fields ; graph theory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract As is well known, a complete stochastic solution of the stochastic differential equation governing saturated groundwater flow leads to an infinite hierarchy of equations in terms of higher-order moments. Perturbation techniques are commonly used to close this hierarchy, using power-series expansions. These methods are applied by truncating the series after a finite number of terms, and products of random gradients of conductivity and head potential are neglected. Uncertainty regarding the number or terms required to yield a sufficiently accurate result is a significant drawback with the application of power series-based perturbation methods for such problems. Low-order series truncation may be incapable of representing fundamental characteristics of flow and can lead to physically unreasonable and inaccurate solutions of the stochastic flow equation. To support this argument, one-dimensional, steady-state, saturated groundwater flow is examined, for the case of a spatially distributed hydraulic conductivity field. An ordinary power-series perturbation method is used to approximate the mean head, using second-order statistics to characterize the conductivity field. Then an interactive perturbation approach is introduced, which yields improved results compared to low-order, power-series perturbation methods for situations where strong interactions exist between terms in such approximations. The interactive perturbation concept is further developed using Feynman-type diagrams and graph theory, which reduce the original stochastic flow problem to a closed set of equations for the mean and the covariance functions. Both theoretical and practical advantages of diagrammatic solutions are discussed; these include the study of bounded domains and large fluctuations.
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  • 21
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 8 (1994), S. 157-172 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Operator representations of stochastic subsurface flow equations allow writing their solutions implicitly or explicitly in terms of integro-differential expressions. Most of these representations involve Neumann series that must be truncated or otherwise approximated to become operational. It is often claimed that truncated Neumann series allow solving groundwater flow problems in the presence of arbitrarily large heterogeneities. Such claims have so far not been backed by convincing computational examples, and we present an analysis which suggests that they may not be justified on theoretical grounds. We describe an alternative operator representation due to Neuman and Orr (1993) which avoids the use of Neumann series yet accomplishes a similar purpose. It leads to a compact integro-differential form which provides considerable new insight into the nature of the solution. When written in terms of conditional moments, our new representation contains local and nonlocal effective parameters that depend on scale and information. As such, these parameters are not unique material properties but may change as more is learned about the flow system.
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  • 22
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 8 (1994), S. 185-205 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Contaminant transport ; adsorption ; decay ; random walk ; killing ; Kolmogorov equations ; contamination of a well
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This study deals with the transport of a contaminant in groundwater. The contaminant is subject to first order decay or linear adsorption. Its displacement can be modeled by a random walk process in which particles are killed at exponentially distributed times. Dirichlet problems are derived for the rate and mean time at which contaminated particles reach a particular part of the boundary of a certain domain. These Dirichlet problems are solved asymptotically for two types of 2D-flow patterns: flow parallel to the boundary of a domain and arbitrary flow towards a well in an aquifer.
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  • 23
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 8 (1994), S. 109-116 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Unsaturated ; nonlocal ; memory ; statistical physics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract As illustrated variously by wetting and drying scanning curves, flow in unsaturated porous media is inherently nonlocal. This nonlocality is also manifest in hysteresis in the classical Darcy conductivity. It is the authors' belief that most current theories of unsaturated/saturated flow are often inadequate, as they do not account for spatial nonlocality and memory. Here we provide a fundamental theory in which nonlocality of the flow constitutive theory is a natural consequence of force balances. The results are derived from general principles in statistical physics and under appropriate limiting conditions, the classical Darcy's Law is recovered for saturated flow. A notable departure in this theory from other nonlocal flow theories is that a classical Darcy type equation on a small scale need not exist.
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  • 24
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 1-26 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Inverse ; calibration ; estimation ; groundwater flow
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The development of stochastic methods for groundwater flow representation has undergone enormous expansion in recent years. The calibration of groundwater models, the inverse problem, has lately received comparable attention especially and almost exclusively from the stochastic perspective. In this review we trace the evolution of the methods to date with a specific view toward identifying the most important issues involved in the usefulness of the approaches. The methods are critiqued regarding practical usefulness, and future directions for requisite study are discussed.
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  • 25
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 55-64 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Predictive distribution ; Bayesian approximation ; parameter uncertainty ; non-informative prior ; method of moments ; Gumbel distribution ; maximum likelihood estimates
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In this paper Lindley's Bayesian approximation procedure is used to obtain the Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedence of a flood discharge. The Bayes estimates of the probability of exceedence has been shown by S.K. Sinha to be equivalent to the estimate of the probability of exceedence from the predictive or Bayesian disribution, of a future flood discharge. The evaluation of complex ratios of multiple integrals common in a Bayesian analysis is not necessary using Lindley's procedure. The Bayes estimates are compared to those obtained by the method of maximum likelihood and the method of moments. The results show that Bayes estimates of the probability of exceedence are larger as expected, but have smaller posterior standard deviations.
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  • 26
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 105-119 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Kalman filtering ; Optimal smoothing ; Shallow water equations ; Wind stress ; On-line prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Using the state space approach, an on-line filter procedure for combined wind stress identification and tidal flow forecasting is developed. The stochastic dynamic approach is based on the linear twodimensional shallow water equations. Using a finite difference scheme, a system representation of the model is obtained. To account for uncertainties, the system is embedded into a stochastic environment. By employing a Kalman filter, the on-line measurements of the water-level available can be used to identify and predict the shallow water flow. Because it takes a certain time before a fluctuation in the wind stress can be noticed in the water-level measurements, an optimal fixed-lag smoother is used to identify the stress.
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  • 27
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 135-150 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Radar ; rainfall prediction ; real-time prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A computational method for the determination of rainfall distribution for applications in short term rainfall prediction is presented here. The method is strongly influenced by the experience gained from the observation and analysis of data gathered on a heavy rainfall event in 1986 that occurred during the Baiu Season in Japan. The method is based on the concept that rainfall occurs as an interaction between an instability field, appropriately modeled, and a field of water vapor under the influence of topography. The results from this computational method showed good agreement with the temporal variation in the rainband that moved across the observation field in 1986. Towards determination of the parameters in the computational model, another method for the determination of the rainfield is also developed. This second method determines the rainfall distribution from estimation of the conversion rate of water vapor to liquid water through use of data from a three dimensional scanning radar. The results are consistent with those obtained from the first method.
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  • 28
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 4 (1990), S. 151-160 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph ; Conceptual models ; Stochastic differential equations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Recognizing that simple watershed conceptual models such as the Nash cascade ofn equal linear reservoirs continue to be reasonable means to approximate the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH), it is natural to accept that random errors generated by climatological variability of data used in fitting an imprecise conceptual model will produce an IUH which is random itself. It is desirable to define the random properties of the IUH in a watershed in order to have a more realistic hydrologic application of this important function. Since in this case the IUH results from a series of differential equations where one or more of the uncertain parameters is treated in stochastic terms, then the statistical properties of the IUH are best described by the solution of the corresponding Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE's). This article attempts to present a methodology to derive the IUH in a small watershed by combining a classical conceptual model with the theory of SDE's. The procedure is illustrated with the application to the Middle Thames River, Ontario, Canada, and the model is verified by the comparison of the simulated statistical measures of the IUH with the corresponding observed ones with good agreement.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 45-54 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Solute transport ; random velocity ; Lagrangian description ; travel time ; nonlinear effects
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The problem of one-dimensional transport of passive solute by a random steady velocity field is investigated. This problem is representative of solute movement in porous media, for example, in vertical flow through a horizontally stratified formation of variable porosity with a constant flux at the soil surface. Relating moments of particle travel time and displacement, exact expressions for the advection and dispersion coefficients in the Focker-Planck equation are compared with the perturbation results for large distances. The first- and second-order approximations for the dispersion coefficient are robust for a lognormal velocity field. The mean Lagrangian velocity is the harmonic mean of the Eulerian velocity for large distances. This is an artifact of one-dimensional flow where the continuity equation provides for a divergence free fluid flux, rather than a divergence free fluid velocity.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 5 (1991), S. 89-104 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Overland flows ; nonlinear SPDE ; evolutionary probability distributions
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A theoretical solution framework to the nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE) of the kinematic wave and diffusion wave models of overland flows under stochastic inflows/outflows, stochastic surface roughness field and stochastic state of flows was obtained. This development was realized by means of an eigenfunction representation of the time-space overland flow depths, and by transforming the problem into the phase space. By using Van Kampen's lemma and the cumulant expansion theory of Kubo-Van Kampen-Fox, the deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) for the evolutionary probability density function (pdf) of overland flow depths was finally obtained. Once this deterministic PDE is solved for the time-varying pdf of overland flow depths, then the time-space varying pdf of overland flow depths can be obtained by a transformation given in the text. In this solution framework it is possible to incorporate the stochastic dynamic behavior of the parameters and of the forcing functions of the overland flow process. For example, not only the individual rainfall duration and fluctuating rain intensity characteristics but also the sequential behavior of rainfall patterns is incorporated into the evolutionary probability density function of overland flow depths.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 5-25 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Solute transport ; Heterogeneity ; Dispersion
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Macrodispersion is spreading of a substance induced by spatial variations in local advective velocity at field scales. Consider the case that the steady-state seepage velocity and the local dispersion coefficients in a heterogeneous formation may be modeled as periodic in all directions in an unbounded domain. The equations satisfied by the first two spatial moments of the concentration are derived for the case of a conservative non-reacting solute. It is shown that the moments can be calculated from the solution of well-defined deterministic boundary value problems. Then, it is described how the rate of increase of the first two moments can be calculated at large times using a Taylor-Aris analysis as generalized by Brenner. It is demonstrated that the second-order tensor of macrodispersion (or effective dispersion) can be computed through the solution of steady-state boundary-value problems followed by the determination of volume averages. The analysis is based solely on volume averaging and is not limited by the assumption that the fluctuations are small. The large-time results are valid when the system is in a form of equilibrium in which a tagged particle samples all locations in an appropriately defined “phase space” with equal probability.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 89-101 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Detention storage ; Pollution control ; Non-point pollutant runoff
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A simple expression is presented on the capability of storage-treatment systems to reduce non-point pollutant runoff load to natural waters. Their efficiency depends on the capacities of the facilities and probabilistic properties of runoff, such as interval, duration, volume, and concentration of runoff events. Assuming the compound Poisson process for runoff time series, the exact expressions of the ratio of treated load in terms of storage and treatment capacities are theoretically derived on the neighbourhoods of all boundaries of the domain on which the problem is defined. Then, an approximate expression over the whole domain is presented, of which the value and the first-order derivative coincide with those of the exact derived expressions near the boundaries. Accuracy is checked by Monte Carlo simulations.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 55-68 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Drought severity ; Drought duration ; Renewal-reward process
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This research study focused on the hypothesis that extreme drought and high streamflow events come from different independent populations with different probability distributions which need to be studied separately, rather than considering the streamflow population as a whole. The inability of traditional streamflow generator models to consistently reproduce the frequency of occurrence of severe droughts observed in the historical record has been questioned by many researchers. Our study focused on the development of astochastic event generator model which would be capable of doing so. This was accomplished in a two-step process by first generating the drought event, and then deriving the streamflows which comprised that event. The model considered for this analysis was an alternating renewal-reward procedure that cycles between eventon andoff times, and is representative of drought or high streamflow event duration. The reward gained while the event ison oroff represents drought severity or high streamflow surplus. Geometric and gamma distributions were considered for drought duration and deficit respectively. Model validation was performed using calculated required capacities from the sequent peak algorithm.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 103-121 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Probabilistic model ; Sensitivity ; Contaminant transport
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A reliability approach is used to develop a probabilistic model of two-dimensional non-reactive and reactive contaminant transport in porous media. The reliability approach provides two important quantitative results: an estimate of the probability that contaminant concentration is exceeded at some location and time, and measures of the sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome to likely changes in the uncertain variables. The method requires that each uncertain variable be assigned at least a mean and variance; in this work we also incorporate and investigate the influence of marginal probability distributions. Uncertain variables includex andy components of average groundwater flow velocity,x andy components of dispersivity, diffusion coefficient, distribution coefficient, porosity and bulk density. The objective is to examine the relative importance of each uncertain variable, the marginal distribution assigned to each variable, and possible correlation between the variables. Results utilizing a two-dimensional analytical solution indicate that the probabilistic outcome is generally very sensitive to likely changes in the uncertain flow velocity. Uncertainty associated with dispersivity and diffusion coefficient is often not a significant issue with respect to the probabilistic analysis; therefore, dispersivity and diffusion coefficient can often be treated for practical analysis as deterministic constants. The probabilistic outcome is sensitive to the uncertainty of the reaction terms for early times in the flow event. At later times, when source contaminants are released at constant rate throughout the study period, the probabilistic outcome may not be sensitive to changes in the reaction terms. These results, although limited at present by assumptions and conceptual restrictions inherent to the closed-form analytical solution, provide insight into the critical issues to consider in a probabilistic analysis of contaminant transport. Such information concerning the most important uncertain parameters can be used to guide field and laboratory investigations.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 191-207 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrodynamic dispersion ; Fokker-Planck equation ; backward equation ; boundary layer ; complex potential function ; fraction of contaminated particles that enter a well
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we describe the transport of pollution in groundwater in the neighbourhood of a well in a uniform background flow. We compute the rate at which contaminated particles reach the well as a function of the place of the source of pollution. The motion of a particle in a dispersive flow is seen as a random walk process. The Fokker-Planck equation for the random motion of a particle is transformed using the complex potential for the advective flow field. The resulting equation is solved asymptotically after a stretching transformation. Finally, the analytical solution is compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations with the random walk model. The method can be extended to arbitrary flow fields. Then by a numerical coordinate transformation the analytical results can still be employed.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 255-269 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Emprical Orthogonal Functions ; interpolating runoff ; kriging
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The method of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF method) is combined with an objective interpolation technique, kriging, to generate runoff series at ungauged locations. In a case study the results are compared to series interpolated by a combination of EOF analysis and regression using catchment characteristics as independent variables. The results are also compared to linear weighting of an existing runoff series, a commonly used method for spatial interpolation. The influence of altitude on the runoff is studied comparing kriging based on 2 and 3 coordinates. The study showed that the capacity of EOF analysis combined with kriging is as good as the traditionally used linear weighting. The results, when altitude is included in the kriging, are improved.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 270-288 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Periodicities ; hydraulic cycle ; spectral methods
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    Notes: Abstract Periodicites in hydrologic data are frequently estimated and studied. In some cases the periodic components are subtracted from the data to obtain the stochastic components. In other cases the physical reasons for the occurrence of these periodicities are investigated. Apart from the annual cycle in the hydrologic data, periods corresponding to the 11 year sunspot cycle, the Hale cycle and others have been detected. The conclusions from most of these studies depend on the reliability and robustness of the methods used to detect these periodicities. Several spectral analysis methods have been proposed to investigate periodicities in time series data. Several of these have been compared to each other. The methods by Siddiqui and Wang and by Damsleth and Spjotvoll, which are stepwise procedures of spectrum estimation, have not been evaluated. Two of the methods of spectral analysis proposed by Siddiqui and Wang and by Damsleth and Spjotvoll are investigated in this study by using generated and observed data. Siddiqui and Wang's method is found to be superior to the Damsleth and Spjotvoll's method.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 289-303 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stream flow series ; shot-noise model ; sadolle-point approximation
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper we consider the shot-noise model of streamflow series. We show how design discharge can be obtained by the stochastic intensity of thinned Poisson processes describing the peaks over a threshold. The main result concerns the stationary distribution of peaks. We derive an explicit expression for this limit distribution in terms of its Laplace transform. Approximation formulas are developed making use of the saddle point method for the asymptotic evaluation of contour integrals and the Post-Widder formula for inversion of Laplace transforms. We illustrate this methods on the case of Gamma-distributed shots. The stationary peak distribution is used to approximate the maximum value distribution for larger time intervals.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 57-70 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Auf der landwirtschaftlichen Universität von Norwegen (59δ 40′N, 10δ 46′E) wurde mit vier verschiedenen Lysimetern die potentielle Evapotranspiration (PET) von Gerste und von kurzgeschnittenem Gras gemessen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß in der aktiven Wachstumsperiode die PET von Gerste der PET von Gras gleich ist in Bestätigung der Tatsache, daß die Evapotranspiration von kurzer Vegetation in erster Linie durch meteorologische Faktoren beeinflußt wird, wenn die Wasserzufuhr nicht beschränkt ist. Mit der Formel von Priestley und Taylor PET =α Δ/Δ + γ R n, wo Δ den Abfall des Sättigungsdruckes mit der Temperatur,γ die Psychrometerkonstante undR n die Strahlungs. bilanz bedeuten, kann mit a gleich 1.25 die PET für zehntägige Perioden mit einer Genauigkeit von 10% geschätzt werden. Eine bessere Schätzung wird mit der Formel PET (mm pro 10 Tage) = −5,4 + 6,18 · 10−7 Δ/Δ + γ Rn (J/m2) erhalten.
    Notes: Summary Potential evapotranspiration (PET) from barley and short cut grass have been measured using four different lysimeters at the Agricultural University of Norway (59δ 40′N, 10δ 46′E). In the active growing season the results show that PET for barley is equal to PET for grass, confirming the fact that evapotranspiration is primarily controlled by meteorological factors for short vegetation when water supply is non-limiting. Using the Priestley-Taylor formula PET =α Δ/Δ + γ n, where Δ is the slope of the saturation pressure versus temperature curve,γ is the psychrometric constant andR n net radiation, PET can be estimated to an accuracy of 10% (67% level) for ten-day periods withα equal to 1.25. Even better estimates is obtained by using the formula PET (mm per 10 days) = − 5.4 + 6.18 · 10−7 Δ/Δ +γ R n (J/m2).
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 89-97 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Ein Sonnenscheingeber und seine Eichung wird beschrieben. Er ist gekennzeichnet durch folgende Merkmale: Sein elektrischer Spannungsausgang liegt hoch (〉 4,5 V) für den Fall „Sonnenschein” und tief (〈 0,4 V) für den Fall „kein Sonnenschein” Seine Eichung auf eine Schwellwertintensität von 200 W/m2 folgt der Sonnenscheindefinition durch die World Meteorological Organization. Er erfordert keine nennenswerte Wartung und er enthält keine beweglichen Teile.
    Notes: Summary A sunshine monitor and its calibration is described. Its important characteristics are: it has an electrical DC level output which is high (〉 4.5 V) for “sunshine” and low (〈 0.4 V) for “no sunshine”; it is calibrated for a threshold sensitivity of 200 W/m2, which meets the sunshine definition of the World Meteorological Organization; it requires very little service and contains no moving parts.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 99-109 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird gezeigt, daß auf Grund von Angaben in der Literatur die Konstanten für die statistische Beziehung zwischen der Globalstrahlung und der Sonnenscheindauer für Ostafrika nun hinreichend gesichert angegeben werden können. Werden die Unterschiede der Fehler bei der Datenerfassung mit anderen einfachen Meßmethoden der solaren Einstrahlung berücksichtigt, kann gezeigt werden, daß Campbell-Stokes Meßwerte gut geeignet sind zur Überprüfung, Kalibrierung oder zum zeitweisen Ersatz sonstiger Meßmethoden, wo in den Tropen keine geeichten Pyranometer verfügbar sind. Ein Beispiel wird gegeben für Gunn-Bellanis.
    Notes: Summary It is shown from literature research that constants in the statistical relationship between total global solar radiation and sunshine duration are now well established for East Africa. Taking into account the differences in data collection errors with other simple methods of solar radiation determination, we show Campbell-Stokes data to be suitable for checking, calibrating or temporarily replacing these other methods where no calibrated pyranometers are available in the tropics. An example is given for Gunn-Bellanis.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 129-135 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wurde die Globalstrahlung in GeU und GeMCap analysiert, womit es im Zusammenhang mit den thermo-pluviometrischen Angaben ermöglicht wurde, die klimatischen Charakteristiken eines am Meere gelegten Ortes (GeU) und eines auf den Appenninen gelegenen Ortes (GeMCap) zu beschreiben. Auf GeMCap weisen diese klimatischen Faktoren im Winter-Herbst einen kontinental-maritimen Charakter und im Frühling-Sommer einen streng kontinentalen Charakter auf.
    Notes: Summary It has been analysed the global solar radiation at GeU and GeMCap, that in connection with the thermo-pluviometric data has also allowed to outline the climatic characteristics of a coastal site (GeU) and of a site on Apennin ridge (GeMCap). At GeMCap these climatic parameters show a continental-maritime behaviour in winter-autumn and strictly continental feature in the remaining half year.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 111-128 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Der Zusammenhang zwischen Globalstrahlung und Sonnenscheindauer wird für 132 Stationen in Ostasien untersucht. Es zeigt sich, daß die Regressionskoeffizienten in der modifizierten ÅngströmgleichungQ/Qa = a + b n/N systematisch über das Gebiet verteilt sind, so daß sich niedrige Werte vona und hohe Werte vonb im Wintermaximum/Sommerminimum-Regime vonQ/Qa undn/N ergeben, hohe Werte vona und niedrige Werte vonb dagegen im Winterminimum/Sommermaximum-Regime vonQ/Qa undn/N anfallen. (Die Symbole werden in der Einleitung definiert.) Es ergibt sich daraus, daß Verteilungen der Regressionskoeffizienten eher an Terraingegebenheiten und an das lokale und jahreszeitliche Strahlungsklima geknüpft sind, das durch den vorherrschenden Wintermonsun, Baiu, kontrolliert wird, als an die geographische Breite und an Mittelwerte vonn/N.
    Notes: Summary The relationship between solar radiation and sunshine duration is studied for 132 stations in East Asia. Regression coefficientsa andb in the modified Ångström formulaQ/Qa = a + b n/N are found to be systematically distributed in the area with low values ofa and high values ofb in the winter maximum/summer minimum regime ofQ/Qa andn/N, and high values ofa and low values ofb in the winter minimum/summer maximum regime ofQ/Qa andn/N. This shows that the distribution of regression coefficients is more closely related to the local seasonal radiation climate controlled by the prevailing winter monsoon, Bain, and the terrain features rather than to latitude or meann/N.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 137-155 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Arbeit bringt eine Zusammenfassung der mit einem zweiteiligen Modell des täglichen Niederschlags zum Vergleich des Regenklimas von 11 Orten in einem Nord-Süd-Schnitt durch Westafrika erhaltenen Ergebnisse. Die Zahl der Regentage wurde gesondert von den Regenmengen analysiert. Es wurden Kurven der Wahrscheinlichkeit von Regen angepaßt; diese Kurven sind geographisch vereinbar. Die mittlere Länge der Trockenperioden und der Feuchteperioden variiert systematisch im Jahresgang. In der Regenzeit besteht ein nahezu konstantes mittleres Intervall von 4 Tagen zwischen dem Beginn aufeinanderfolgender Regenperioden. Regenmengen werden durch Gamma-Verteilungen beschrieben. Die mittlere Regenmenge pro Regentag ist verhältnismäßig konstant und die Änderung der Regenwahrscheinlichkeit ist daher die bedeutendste Komponente der jahreszeitlichen Änderung und der Differenzen zwischen den Orten.
    Notes: Summary This paper uses the concise summary obtained from a two part model of daily rainfall to compare the rainfall climate of eleven places on a north-south transect in West Africa. The number of rainy days is analysed separately from the amounts of rain. Curves are fitted to the probability of rain and these curves are geographically consistent. The mean length of dry spells and of wet spells vary systematically during the year. In the rainy season there is a nearly constant mean interval of about 4 days between the start of successive rainy spells. The amounts of rain are described by gamma distributions. The mean rainfall per rainy day is relatively constant and variation in the probability of rain is therefore the most important component of seasonal variation and of differences between places.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 167-179 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wurde die Abhängigkeit von feuchten und trockenen Tagen vom Zustand an vorhergehenden Tagen für sechs Stationen in Ost- und West-Afrika und in Südost-Asien untersucht. Während eine Anzahl von Untersuchungen in höheren Breiten darauf hinweisen, daß häufig nur der Zustand am vorhergehenden Tag in Betracht zu ziehen ist, zeigt das Ergebnis dieser Studie an, daß in den Tropen mindestens die zwei vorhergehenden Tage von Bedeutung sind. Für manche Stationen mag es angezeigt sein, in bestimmten Zeiten des Jahres die drei vorhergehenden Tage in Betracht zu ziehen.
    Notes: Summary Dependence of the occurrence of wet and dry days on the situation on previous days was tested for six stations in East and West Africa and South East Asia. Although a number of studies in higher latitudes suggest that often only the situation on the previous day needs to be taken into account, evidence from this pilot study indicates that in the tropics, at least the previous two days are important. For some stations at certain times of the year, it may be wise to consider the previous three days.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 157-166 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary This study, inspired by previous works, tries to establish a synthesis on a limited aspect: that is the variability of average precipitations over the Aegean Sea. Moreover, we consider variability parameters mostly used, as well as the most satisfactory technics for plotting this variability on the map.
    Abstract: Zusammenfassung In dieser Arbeit wird die Veränderlichkeit des Niederschlages im Ägäischen Meer zur Darstellung gebracht. Ferner werden die gebräuchlichsten Variabilitätsparameter und die am meisten befriedigenden Techniken der Kartendarstellung dieser Veränderlichkeit in Betracht gezogen.
    Notes: Résumé Cette étude qui s'inspire de travaux antérieurs tente d'établir une synthèse sur un aspect limité: selui de la variabilite des precipitations moyennes tombées dans la mer Egée. En outre, nous considérons les parameters de variabilite les plus utilisables, ainsi que les techniques les plus satisfaisantes pour la représentation cartographique de la variabilite.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 181-190 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary Windgustiness at the top of a tree which is relevant to tree vibrations within forests is described for a spruce forest (Ebersberger Forst near Munich) applying simple characteristic values of turbulence and gustiness.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Bei der Untersuchung von Baumschwingungen innerhalb von Wäldern ist die Windböigkeit an der Baumoberhöhe von großer Bedeutung. Für einen Fichtenwald, den Ebersberger Forst bei München, wird sie mit einfachen Turbulenz- und Böigkeitskenngrößen beschrieben.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 197-204 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung In früheren Untersuchungen langer atmosphärischer Wellen von niedriger Frequenz in der polaren Atmosphäre wurden Zylinderkoordinaten angewendet, wobei die Ebenez=0 die Erdoberfläche am Pole berührt. Dabei wurde mittels numerischer Beispiele gefunden, daß die in Zylinderkoordinaten erhaltenen Resultate gute Annäherungen an die mit Kugelkoordinaten berechneten darstellen. Hier wird gezeigt, daß die Formeln für die Wellenfrequenzen in beiden Koordinatensystemen angenähert gleich sind.
    Notes: Summary In earlier studies of long low-frequency atmospheric waves in the polar atmosphere a cyclindrical coordinate system had been used with the planez=0 tangential to the earth's surface at the pole. It had been found by numerical examples that the results obtained with a cylindrical coordinate system approximate quite well those obtained with a spherical coordinate system. Here, it is shown that the formulae for the wave frequencies in both coordinate systems are the same to a good degree of approximation.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 269-277 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es werden die Auswirkungen der Einbeziehung der vertikalen Scherung in das Problem der stetigen Strömung einer nichtviskosen rotierenden und geschichteten Flüssigkeit um ein isoliertes topographisches Hindernis besprochen. Es wird gezeigt, daß bei Baroklinität in der fern von dem Hindernis ungestörten Strömung, bei dem hier betrachteten Parameterbereich, ein antizyklonaler an das Hindernis gebundener Wirbel erzeugt wird, ähnlich wie im Fall ohne Scherung aber mit durch die Scherung modifizierter Intensität. Im besonderen nimmt, wenn die Geschwindigkeit der Grundströmung mit der Höhe zunimmt, die Intensität des Wirbels im Vergleich zum barotropen Fall wegen der horizontalen Advektion potentieller Temperatur ab. Für den Fall einer geringen Größe der Hindernisse werden analytische Lösungen gebracht.
    Notes: Summary The effects of inclusion of vertical shear in the problem of steady flow of an inviscid, rotating and stratified fluid past isolated topography are discussed. It is shown that the presence of baroclinicity in the undisturbed flow far from the obstacle, in the parameter range considered here, produces an anti-cyclonic vortex bound to the obstacle, like in the unsheared case, but whose intensity is modified by the shear. In particular, if the velocity of basic flow increases with height, the intensity of the vortex is decreased with respect to the barotropic case, because of the horizontal advection of potential temperature. Analytical solutions are presented in the case of small amplitude obstacles.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 205-217 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Mit Hilfe approximierter ageostrophischer Windkomponenten und iterativer Integration in einem quasi Lagrangeschen System werden Trajektorien abgeleitet. Die Verifikation erfolgt an Hand der Verlagerung charakteristischer Wolkensysteme mittels Satellitenbilder.
    Notes: Summary Trajectories are computed with the help of approximated ageostrophic windcomponents and the iterative integration method in a quasi Lagrangian system. The displacement of distinctive cloud systems localized from satellite images is used for verification.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 219-233 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird ein Parameter zur Feststellung des Minimalbereiches der übergeostrophischen Komponente der zonalen Strömung in einem westlichen Jet Stream aus der Bedingung bestimmt, daß eine geostrophische Bewegung nur in stabil geschichteten Medien möglich ist. Die Größe des übergeostrophischen Zonalwindes im Kerngebiet eines durchschnittlichen westlichen Jet Stream mittlerer Breiten wurde bei nahe von 60% der beobachteten zonalen Windgeschwindigkeit festgestellt. Die durch diese übergeostrophischen Zonalwindkomponenten verursachten nicht geostrophischen Querzirkulationen werden als thermisch indirekt und für die Entwicklung von einigen beobachteten Erscheinungen wie der Jet Stream Front, der Unterbrechung der nördlichen Tropopause quer zum Kern und der Clear air turbulence-Zonen in bestimmten Regionen eines westlichen Jet Stream als günstig erwiesen.
    Notes: Summary A parameter, for determining the minimum super-geostrophic component of zonal flow in a westerly jet stream, was identified, by invoking the condition that geostrophic motion is possible only in stably stratified media. The magnitude of super geostrophic zonal wind in the core region of an average mid-latitudinal westerly jet stream was found to be nearly 60% of the observed zonal wind speed. The non-geostrophic transverse circulations induced by this super-geostrophic zonal wind components were shown to be thermally indirect in nature and favourable for the formation of some of the observed features like jet stream front, break of the northern tropopause across the core and CAT (clear air turbulence) zones in certain regions of a westerly jet stream.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 249-267 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Mit Verwendung von in der zweiten Phase der Venezueler internationalen meteorologischen und hydrologischen Experimente (VIMHEX-1972) gesammelten Radar-Daten wurde eine Klassifikation von Unwettern in Böenlinien, in Gewittergruppen und in isolierten Gewittern vorgenommen. Die Verhältnisse in der nahen Umgebung während des Vorrückens dieser Typen von Unwetter werden untersucht. Die Modifikation der Umgebung wird, abgeleitet aus der trocken-statischen Energie, aus der feucht-statischen Energie, aus dem latenten Wärmegehalt und aus den relativen Winden, ebenfalls studiert und ein für die Unwetter entwickeltes Modell wird vorgelegt. Schließlich werden einige Aspekte der Bewegung der Unwettergebilde beschrieben.
    Notes: Summary A classification of storms in squall lines, thunderstorm clusters, and isolated thunderstorms was made using radar data collected during the second phase of the Venezuelan International Meteorological and Hydrological Experiments (VIMHEX-1972). The near-environmental conditions in advance of these types of storms are examined. The modification of the environment, as deduced from the dry static energy, moist static energy, latent heat content and relative winds is also studied, and a conceptual model for the storms is presented. Finally, some aspects of storm movement are described.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 235-247 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Untersuchung wurde an einem äquivalenten barotropen Modell zum Studium der Stabilität des meridionalen Windes im 200 mb-Niveau im Sommer in den Tropen durch-geführt. Das von Wiin-Nielsen für mittlere Breiten eingeführte äquivalente Modell wurde mit einigen Änderungen auch für die Tropen angenommen. Es wurde gefunden, daß der meridionale Wind einer Anzahl von überlagerten Rossby-Wellen äquivalent ist, so daß sich das Stabilitätsproblem der meridionalen Strömung auf das Stabilitätsproblem von Rossby-Wellen zurückführen läßt. In der vorliegenden Untersuchung wurde die Stabilität einer Rossby-Welle mit einer Störung, die einen zonalen Wind ergibt, geprüft. Es wurde gefunden, daß kurze Rossby-Wellen instabil sind, so daß die kurzen Rossby-Wellen ihre kinetische Energie auf den zonalen Wind übertragen. Das von Lorenz hinsichtlich der Instabilität der Rossby-Welle für mittlere Breiten gewonnene Ergebnis wurde mit dem äquivalenten barotropen Modell verbessert.
    Notes: Summary The present study is conducted in the equivalent barotropic model to study the stability of meridional wind at 200 mb level in tropics during summer. The equivalent barotropic model, which was introduced by Wiin-Nielsen [1] for midlatitude, is accepted for tropics after some possible changes. The meridional wind is found to be equivalent to a number of superposed dispersive Rossby waves, so the stability problem of meridional flow reduces to the stability problem of Rossby waves. In the present study, the stability of single Rossby wave is tested with a perturbation which gives zonal wind. It is found that the short Rossby waves are unstable, so the short Rossby waves release their kinetic energy to the zonal wind. Thus, the short waves of the spectral meridional flow release their kinetic energy to the zonal wind. For midlatitude, Lorenz's problem regarding the instability of Rossby wave is improved using the equivalent barotropic model.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 279-299 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es werden die monatlichen und jahreszeitlichen Mittel, die Extreme und die Veränderlichkeit des Meereises der Süd-Hemisphäre aufgrund 5jähriger Beobachtungen untersucht. Seine Veränderlichkěit ist am größten in den geographischen Längen der Küsteneinbuchtungen der Antarktis; es wurde auch eine kleine aber allgemeine Abnahme seiner Ausdehnung in allen Jahreszeiten dieser Beobachtungsperiode festgestellt. Zum Maximum der Eisausdehnung (Juli bis November) nimmt das 5jährige Mittel der zonalen Westwinde im Norden des Eises mit zunehmender Eisausdehnung zu; in einzelnen Jahren besteht jedoch zum Maximum der Eisausdehnung keine deutliche Korrelation zwischen der zonal gemittelten Eisausdehnung und der Stärke der zonalen Westströmung im vorhergehenden oder folgenden Monat. Der Vergleich mit dem 5jährigen Mittel der Längenverteilung der atmosphärischen Druck-Maxima und Minima in der Breite des antarktischen Trogs weist allgemein auf Asymmetrien im Eisrand hin, derart, daß er in Gebieten mit häufigem Tiefdruck weiter nördlich liegt und veränderlicher ist und in Gebieten mit relativ hohem Druck weiter südlich liegt. Die Untersuchung einer spezifischen Längenzone zeigt, daß die Verteilung der Eisausdehnung deutlich regional ist und offenbar mit Änderungen in der kombinierten ozeanischen und atmosphärischen Zirkulation in den antarktischen Einbuchtungen in Beziehung steht.
    Notes: Summary The monthly and seasonal means, extremes and variability of the Southern Hemisphere sea ice are examined for a five year period. Its variability is found to be greatest in the longitudes of the Antarctic coastal embayments, and a small but general decline in extent at all seasons throughout the period is observed. At near maximum ice extent (July to November), the 5 year mean of the zonal westerlies to the north of the ice increases with increasing ice extent; however for individual years, at maximum ice extent, there is no clear correlation between zonally averaged ice extent and the strength of the zonal westerlies in the preceding or succeeding month. Comparison with the 5 year mean longitudinal pattern of atmospheric pressure maxima and minima at the latitude of the Antarctic trough points generally to asymmetries in the ice edge, such that it is further north and more variable in regions of frequent low pressure, and further south in regions of relatively high pressure. Examination of a specific longitudinal zone indicates that the pattern of ice extent is clearly regional, and apparently related to variations in the combined oceanic and atmospheric circulation particularly in the Antarctic embayments.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 215-228 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird über die Anwendung der Hauptkomponentenanalyse zur Abgrenzung von Gebieten mit ähnlichen säkularen Tendenzen im Niederschlag berichtet. Eine Alternativmethode der Regionalisierung wird vorgeschlagen und auf eine Reihe von Beobachtungsdaten angewendet, die bereits früher mit der Hauptkomponentenanalyse analysiert worden ist.
    Notes: Summary The use of principal components analysis to delimit regions with similar secular trends in rainfall totals is reviewed. An alternative method of regionalization is proposed and is applied to a data set previously analysed using principal components analysis.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 327-332 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Maximalwellen energiereicher Erdbeben mit Herd in der oberen Kruste rufen im äußeren Schütterbereich häufig Resonanzeffekte hervor, die eine örtliche Steigerung der Bebenintensität zur Folge haben. Eine Bewertung solcher Intensitäten nach den gebräuchlichen makroseismischen Skalen ist derzeit nicht möglich. Geht man davon aus, daß die primären Bebenwirkungen an der Erdoberfläche eine Folge der vom Bebenherd abgestrahlten Schwingungsenergie sind und daß die makroseismische IntensitätI (oMSK oder MM) ein logarithmisches Maß für die Bebenwirkungen ist, dann gilt offenbarI=log10 E+const, wennE die örtliche Energiestromdichte (Flächendichte der seismischen Energie) ist. Während im Epizentralbereich wegen der Unregelmäßigkeit der Erdstöße ausgeprägte Resonanzeffekte fehlen, muß man in herdfernen Gebieten, wo die Sg-Maximalwellen des Bebens schon weitgehend harmonisch sind, bei schwingungsanfälligen dünnen Bodenschichten und/oder Bauwerken mit entsprechender Eigenperiode Resonanzschwingungen erwarten, die eine Anhebung der lokalen Bebenintensität um ΔI (oMSK oder MM) bewirken. Mit Hilfe von empirischen Näherungsformeln kann man zu einer Abschätzung dieser Intensitätssteigerung kommen. Sie beträgt ΔI=0,28M s+0,4, mitM s als Oberflächenwellen-Magnitude. Die von der Epizentraldistanz und Magnitude abhängigen Resonanzfrequenzen liegen in der Regel zwischen 0,5 und 2 Hz. Die denkbare Intensitätssteigerung durch Resonanz im Falle eines Bebens der Magnitude 4,0 (7,0) liegt bei 1,5° (2,4°) MSK oder MM. Daraus folgt z. B., daß viele der in Hochhäusern bemerkten und mitI=IIo bewerteten Beben eigentlich mitI=Io zu klassifizieren sind und daß das Anschlagen kleiner Glocken oder das Stehenbleiben von Pendeluhren am Rande des Schüttergebietes eines energiereichen Bebens nichtI=Vo (−VIo), sondernI=IIIo (−IVo) entspricht. Die 12teiligen makroseismischen Skalen sind daher in entsprechender Weise zu ergänzen.
    Notes: Summary In the epicentral area of an earthquake with the focus within the upper crust the rocking is irregular and therefore resonance effects are lacking, but far off the hypocentre, where theSg maximum waves are nearly sinusoidal, thin layers of soil and/or buildings with an appropriate natural period react with resonance oscillations, by which the local macroseismic intensity is increased by ΔI (oMSK or MM). The resonance frequencies — functions of magnitude and hypocentral distance — mostly range from 0.5 to 2 Hz. The increase of intensity can be assessed by the aid of the formula ΔI=0.28M s+0.4, found by the author (M s=surface wave magnitude). Hence, in case of an earthquake withM s=4.0 (7.0) the marginal increase of intensity by resonance amounts to 1.5° (2.4°) MSK or MM. This implies, e. g., that many earthquakes perceived in tall buildings and considered asI=IIo has to be classified asI=Ic correctly, and the ringing of small bells or the stopping of pendulum clocks in the outskirts of the shaken area of a strong earthquake corresponds toI=IIIo (−IVo), and not toI=Vo (−VIo). A valuation of such intensities by the aid of the usual macroseismic scales is not possible, and therefore these scales are to be supplemented in an appropriate way.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1981), S. 229-237 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Sichtbeobachtungsdaten der Periode 1968 bis 1972 in Phönix, Arizona, wurden analysiert, um zu zeigen, wie Änderungen im Laufe der Woche und im Tagesgang durch charakteristische Verunreinigungsquellenstärke und durch meteorologische Erscheinungen beeinflußt werden. Die Ergebnisse bilden eine Grundlage für künftige Untersuchungen zur Klärung von Nachwirkungen einer technologischen Modifikation von Verunreinigungscharakteristiken.
    Notes: Summary Visibility data for the period 1968–1972 at Phoenix, Arizona were analyzed to show how variations among days of the week and hours of the day may be influenced by both pollutant source strength characteristics and meteorological phenomena. The results form the basis for future studies designed to decipher subsequent effects of technological modification of pollutant characteristics.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 31 (1982), S. 385-397 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Das fluktuierende Geschwindigkeitsfeld eines monomolekularen Films (Slik) wird mittels der Grenzschichttheorie für den Fall untersucht, daß Schwerewellen sich auf der Grenzfläche zwischen Wasser und Luft ausbreiten. Es wird dabei angenommen, daß das oberflächenaktive Material viskoselastische Eigenschaften aufweist und unlöslich ist. Es werden graphische Ergebnisse wiedergegeben, die die Geschwindigkeit a) im Zentrum des elastischen Sliks und b) für nicht dehnbare Sliks willkürlicher Weite veranschaulichen. Für letzteren Fall werden Ringe von oberflächenbildenden Elementen berechnet und schematisch dargestellt.
    Notes: Summary The fluctuating velocity field of monomolecular slicks is investigated, by means of boundary-layer theory, whengravity waves propagate on the air-water interface. It is assumed that the surface-active material has visco-elastic properties and is insoluble. Graphical results are given, which illustrate the velocity (a) at the centre ofelastic slicks and (b) for inextensible slicks, of arbitrary width. In the latter case, the orbits of the surfactant elements are calculated, and shown diagrammatically.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 31 (1982), S. 431-432 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 31 (1982), S. 353-367 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Zur Feststellung von hinsichtlich paralleler Schwankungen der Niederschlagsmengen von Jahr zu Jahr zusammenhängender Gebiete werden Korrelationen zwischen monatlichen Mengen verschiedener Stationen verwendet. Von solchen zusammenhängenden Gebieten wurden eines im Herbst, drei im Winter und zwei im Frühling festgestellt. Die Erklärung der Existenz solcher zusammenhängender Gebiete wurde mit Unterschieden charakteristischer Merkmale von Niederschlagsregimes und mit Beziehungen zu verschiedenen synoptischen Systemen versucht.
    Notes: Summary Correlations of monthly totals from different stations were used to identify coherent regions in terms of parallel fluctuations of rainfall amounts from year to year. One coherent region was found during the fall, three during the winter and two during the spring. An attempt to explain the existence of those coherent regions with different known features of the rainfall regime and to relate them to different synoptic systems, was done.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 31 (1982), S. 379-390 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Mit klimatologischen Beobachtungsdaten sind für 61 Stationen in Österreich die Strahlungsbilanz sowie die potentielle und aktuelle Evapotranspiration berechnet worden. Für diese Berechnungen wurden einige Methoden der Verdunstungsbestimmung miteinander verglichen und an einigen Stationen auch Trockenheitsindizes berechnet. Als ein Ergebnis wird vorgeschlagen, daß das Land in vier klimatologische Regionen mit unterschiedlichen Temperatur- und Feuchteverhältnissen unterteilt werden kann.
    Notes: Summary The net radiation, potential and actual evapotranspiration for 61 stations in Austria have been calculated from climafological data. Some methods for these calculations have been compared and the indices of aridity for the 61 stations have also been estimated. As a result, it has been suggested that the country could be divided into four climatological regions with different thermal and humid conditions.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 53-57 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Etliche jüngst erhaltene, empirische Resultate und theoretische Untersuchungen der Abschätzung der thermischen Strahlung der Atmosphäre aus wolkenlosem Himmel werden diskutiert. Es wird gezeigt, daß des strahlungsmäßige Verhalten des Wasserdampfes bei Lufttemperaturen über dem Gefrierpunkt so gut als möglich und nötig parameterisiert worden ist, doch bei Temperaturen unterhalb des Gefrierpunktes sind noch Verbesserungen möglich. Zusätzlich wird gezeigt, daß Vorschriften zur genauen Berechnung der atmosphärischen Thermalstrahlung in der Lage sein müssen, die Effekte der zeitlichen und räumlichen Variabilität der Staubverteilung in Betracht zu ziehen.
    Notes: Summary Several recent empirical findings and theoretical developments related to the estimation of clear-sky atmospheric thermal radiation are discussed. It is demonstrated that the radiative behavior of water vapor at air temperatures above freezing has been parameterized as well as can or need be done, but that there may be room for some improvement at air temperatures below freezing. It is additionally shown that any procedure designed to accurately calculate atmospheric thermal radiation must be able to handle effects of airborne dust variability of both a temporal and spatial nature.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 1-22 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die interannuale Veränderlichkeit in der Ausdehnung des antarktischen Meereseises wird während der winterlichen Zuwachsperiode (Juni bis September) für die fünf Jahre 1973–77 untersucht. Statistische Korrelationen zwischen den synoptischen atmosphärischen Zirkulationsverhältnissen, gegeben durch die Frequenz der von Satelliten beobachteten außertropischen Tiefdruckgebiete, und der breitenmäßigen. Ausdehnung des Meereseises werden auf hemisphärischer und regionaler Basis für jeden Winter ausgewertet. Markante Unterschiede in der winterlichen Zyklonentätigkeit begleiten die jährlichen Unterschiede im Wachstum und in der Ausdehnung des Eises, gemessen im zonalen Mittel, und sind besonders in den extremen Eiswintern 1973 und 1977 evident. Ein Zusammenhang zwischen der Ausdehnung des Meereseisgebietes während des Winters und der Frequenz von Zyklogenese ist besonders für die geographischen Breiten unmittelbar nördlich der Eisgrenze angedeutet. Drei Schlüsselgebiete starker interannualer Veränderlichkeit in den Eisbedingungen werden identifiziert und statistisch auf Rückwirkungen zwischen Eis und Zyklonen hin untersucht. Korrelationen zwischen der geographischen Breite des Eisrandes und der Zyklonenfrequenz zeigen die geringste interannuale Veränderlichkeit im ostantarktischen Sektor. Durch diese Gegebenheit wird die Rolle des semi-permaneten Tiefdruckzentrums im Wintereisregime dieser Region betont. Andererseits variiert die Korrelation zwischen Eis und Zyklonentätigkeit von Jahr zu Jahr bedeutend in der Weddellsee, wo die meeresbedingten Advektionsverhältnisse von zusätzlicher Bedeutung sind. Einzeluntersuchungen aus dem Zeitraum der fünf Winter dienen als Unterstützung der für jeden Sektor gewonnenen, statistischen Resultate.
    Notes: Summary Interannual variations in the extent of Antarctic sea ice are investigated for the winter growth season (June through September) for the five years 1973–77. Statistical correlations between the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, given by the frequencies of satellite-observed extratropical depressions, and the latitudinal extent of the ice are evaluated on hemispheric and regional scales for each winter. Marked differences in winter cyclone activity accompany the year-to-year variations in ice growth and extent on a zonally-averaged basis, and are particularly evident for the extreme ice winters of 1973 and 1977. A link between the expansion of the sea ice zone during winter and the frequencies of new cyclonic developments (cyclogenesis) is evident for latitudes immediately north of the ice-ocean boundary. Three key regions of high interannual variability in ice conditions are identified and examined statistically for ice-cyclone interactions. Correlations between ice-edge latitude and cyclone frequencies show least variation between years in the East Antarctic sector, emphasizing the role of the semi-permanent low pressure center in the winter ice regime of this region. Conversely, ice-cyclone correlations vary markedly from year-to-year in the Weddell Sea, where ocean-related ice advection patterns are of additional significance. Case studies from the five-winter period are used to support the statistical results obtained for each sector.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 99-107 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Ergebnisse der Untersuchung zeigen, daß in Jodhpur die Feuchtigkeit in kahlem sandigen Boden größer ist als in einem Boden unter einer Vegetationsdecke. Das mittlere Temperaturmaximum war in 5 cm Tiefe im allgemeinen um 1 bis 2°C höher als im Boden unter einer Vegetationsdecke, ausgenommen im Juh, wo eine beträchtliche Temperatur-abnahme im kahlen Boden eintrat. Die Tagestemperatur in 5 cm Tiefe war im Sommer höher als in tieferen Schichten, was zu einem abwärtsgerichteten Wärmefluß führte. Im Winter waren die Temperaturen in tieferen Schichten höher, was einen aufwärtsgerichteten Fluß von Wärme und Wasserdampf bewirkte. Es wurde eine große Veränderlichkeit des Wärmeflusses mit im allgemeinen positivem Fluß im Sommer und negativem Fluß im Winter beobachtet.
    Notes: Summary The results of the studies conducted during 1977–78 show higher moisture regime of a bare sandy soil of Jodhpur than the soil with vegetative cover. Mean maximum temperature of a bare soil at 5 cm depth, in general, was 1 to 2°C higher than the soil with vegetative cover except during July when there was considerable fall in temperature of a bare soil. Daytime soil temperatures at 5 cm depth during summer were higher than the lower depths leading thereby to downward movement of heat. In winter, however, the temperatures of lower layers were higher facilitating the upward flow of heat and the vapour flux. A high variability in heat fluxes with generally positive daytime heat fluxes in summer and negative in winter were observed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 23-34 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Sorgfältig ausgewählte AMTEX-Daten wurden zur Berechnung von ähnlichkeitsfunktionen für die Parametrisierung des Oberflächen-Stress und des Wärmetransportes in der konvektiven atmosphärischen Grundschicht verwendet. Die ähnlichkeitsfunktionen für den Stress, die aus den über die Schicht gemittelten mittleren Windkomponenten bestimmt wurden, stimmen für den baroklinen Fall nicht mit ihren aus numerischen Modellen für den barotropen Fall bestimmten Gegenstücken überein, im Widerspruch zu dem, was wir von der Hypothese von Arya und Wyngaard [ 10] erwarten. Vielleicht waren die verwendeten Rawinsonden-Daten für die Verifikation dieser Hypothese nicht gut genug. Es wurde jedoch gefunden, daß die konvektive PBL-Höhe in übereinstimmung mit der Hypothese von Kazanski und Monin [6] mit dem Stabilitätsparameter gut korreliert ist.
    Notes: Summary Carefully selected AMTEX data were used to compute the similarity functions for the parameterization of the surface stress and heat flux for the convective atmospheric boundary layer. The similarity functions for the stress determined from the layer-averaged mean wind components for the baroclinic case don't agree with their counterparts predicted by numerical models for the barotropic case, contrary to what we expect from the hypothesis of Arya and Wyngaard [10]. Perhaps the rawinsonde data used in this study were not good enough for the verification of this hypothesis. However, the non-dimensionalized convective PBL height is found to be well correlated with the stability parameter in accordance with the Kazanski-Monin hypothesis [6].
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 55-69 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Eine lineare, barokline Stabilitätsanalyse wird auf das vertikale, zonale Windprofil der Grundströmung vor der Bildung einer Depression während der MONEX-79-Phase in der Bucht von Bengalen angewendet, wobei ein quasi-geostrophisches, mehrschichtiges, numerisches Modell verwendet wird. Die aus der Zuwachsrate des Spektrums abgeleitete, bevorzugte Wellenlänge beträgt 1400 km für eine Kanalbreite von 1500 km und eine e-fache Vergrößerungszeit von 5.2 Tagen. Die vertikale Wellenstruktur wurde berechnet und mit der beobachteten Struktur der Depression verglichen. Beide besitzen mehrere gemeinsame Grundzüge. Die vertikale Struktur der bevorzugten Welle, aus einem modifizierten Windprofil abgeleitet, in dem die Windscherung unterhalb des Westwindmaximums entfernt wurde, zeigt bessere Übereinstimmung mit der Depressionsstruktur, als die aus dem vollen Windprofil erhaltene Struktur. Der Effekt der vertikalen Veränderlichkeit der statischen Stabilität in den unteren Schichten auf das Wachstum der kurzen, instabilen Wellen wird untersucht. Es zeigt sich, daß eine Abnahme der statischen Stabilität in den unteren Schichten zu einer Zunahme der Wachstumsrate und einer Abnahme der bevorzugten Wellenlänge führt.
    Notes: Summary A linear baroclinic stability analysis is performed for the basic vertical zonal wind profile prior to the formation of the depression during Bay of Bengal phase of MONEX-79 by utilizing a quasi- geostrophic, multilayer, numerical model. The preferred wavelength obtained from the growth rate spectrum is 1400 km for the channel width 1500 km, with an e-folding time 5.2 days. The wave structure in the vertical is computed and compared with the observed structure of the depression. Many common features are noticed between them. Further, the vertical structure of the preferred wave obtained from the modified wind profile, removing wind shear below the westerly maximum level, shows closer agreement to the depression structure than that obtained from the full profile. The effect of vertical variation of static stability in the lower layers on the growth of short unstable waves is studied. It is found that a decrease in static stability in the lower layers resulted in the increase in growth rate and decrease in the preferred wavelength.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 97-101 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung In der Arbeit wird der Hintergrund des äquivalent barotropen Modells, wie es von Mahanti [6, 7, 8] eingeführt worden ist, im Detail besprochen.
    Notes: Summary The physical background of the equivalent barotropec model, introduced by Mahanti [6, 7, 8], has been discussed in details in the present study.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 161-185 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Bei der Modellierung mesoskaliger Küstenklimaeffete sind wegen des Übergangs Land-Meer, repräsentiert durch die Rauhigkeitslangez 0 =z 0 (x, y) und die WärmekapazitätC 0 =C 0 (x,y), und des verstärkten Einflusses der Feuchte ausgeprägte Inhomogenitaten zu berücksichtigen, welche die meteorologischen Verhältnisse signifikant mitgestalten. Mit Hilfe eines dreidimensionalen numerischen Modells werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit die Auswirkungen solcher horizontaler Inhomogenitaten auf Struktur und Variation der Grenzschicht in der Küstenregion studiert, Bowie die Entstehung von Advektionsnebel unter dem Einfluss unterschiedlicher geostrophischer Winde untersucht. Die Modifizierung der Windstärke und Windrichtung in ihrer Abhängigkeit von der Rauhigkeitslange und der unterschiedlichen thermischen Schichtung Bowie zwei Beispiele von Advektionsnebelbildung bei unterschiedlichem geostrophischem Wind werden als Ergebnisse vorgestellt.
    Notes: Summary When modelling mesoscale effects in the coastal climate we have to account for the significant influence of humidity and for the land-sea contrast which is represented by the roughness lengthz 0 =z 0(x, y) and the heat capacityC 0 =C 0 (x, y). This brings about strong horizontal inhomogenities which affect the meteorological situation significantly. The effects of these inhomogenities on the structure and variation of the boundary layer in the coastal region are studied by use of a three-dimensional numerical model; the formation process of advective fog in connection with different geostrophic winds is also investigated. As main results we present 1) the modifications of wind velocity and wind direction as a function of the roughness distribution and different thermal stratifications and 2) two simulations of advective fog formation assuming different geostrophic wind values in each example.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 201-218 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Statistische auf Andauer und Klimatologie begründete Modelle werden zur Vorhersage der Bahnen tropischer Zyklonen von der Nordwestküste Australiens her angewendet. Ein auf die Zeit 1980–81 bezogener Vergleich zeigt, daß eine Anpassung erster Ordnung nach kleinsten Quadraten von acht primären Vorhersagegrössen eine hohe Stufe statistischer Signifikanz hat und vergleichbare mittlere Fehler bei Vorhersagen auf Grund von Regressionsgleichungen höherer Ordnung gibt.
    Notes: Summary Statistical models based on persistence and climatology are used to forecast tropical cyclone tracks off the northwest coast of Australia. A comparison based on the 1980–81 season shows that a first order least squares fit of the eight primary predictors has a higher level of statistical significance and comparable mean forecast errors to predictions based on higher order regression equations.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 297-308 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die asymptotische Form des Diffusionstensors in einer Scherungsströmung (im besonderen in einer Ekman-Strömung) wird auf eine zweidimensionale vertikal gemittelte Diffusionsgleichung mit einem Schwächungsterm erster Ordnung angewendet. Einige klassische Lösungen für punktförmige Quellen werden besprochen und auf ein Modell einer Scherungsströmung angewendet. Lösungen für nichtkonstante Quellen werden diskutiert, wobei der Effekt des Abschneidens des Diffusionsprozesses im hochfrequenten Bereich dargelegt wird. Eine einfache Anwendung auf experimentelle Daten in mesoskalem Abstand wird auch gezeigt.
    Notes: Summary The asymptotic form of the diffusivity tensor in shear flow (in particular Ekman flow) is applied to a two-dimensional, vertically averaged diffusion equation with a decay term of the first order. Some classical solutions for point sources are reviewed and applied to the shear flow model; solutions for non-constant sources are discussed, putting into evidence the cut-off effect of the diffusive process in the high frequency range. A simple application to experimental data on mesoscale distance is also shown.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 301-307 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Arbeit gibt die Bedingung der Instabilität von Wellen mit unbegrenzter seitlicher Ausdehnung an. Es wird auch gezeigt, daß die obere atmosphärische kurze Welle der zonalen Wellenzahl 8 und die niedrige atmosphärische Zyklonenwelle beim Fehlen diabatischer Erwärmung instabil werden und zusammenbrechen.
    Notes: Summary The present paper gives a condition of instability of waves of infinite lateral extent. Also, it is shown that the upper atmospheric short wave of zonal wave number 8 and lower atmospheric cyclone scale wave become unstable and break down in the absence of diabatic heating.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 281-288 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die täglichen Höhenwindbeobachtungsdaten, die von Schiffsbeobachtungen im MONEX-79 erhalten wurden, sind einer 2-D Filterung unterworfen worden, deren Reaktion hinsichtlich der Wellenzahl so ist, daß Wellen mit Wellenlängen kleiner als 760 km ausgefiltert wurden. Diese gefilterten Windkomponenten wurden „Wirbeln” zugeordnet. Die kinetische Energie dieser „Wirbel” in 3 Phasen des Monsuns, nämlich vor dem Beginn des Monsuns (Mai), zum Monsuneinsatz (Juni) und im vollentwickelten Monsun (Juli), wird untersucht. Es wurde festgestellt, dass der Beitrag dieser „Wirbel” zur kinetischen Energie des Gesamtwindes von einem Minimum von 15,5% in der Vormonsunzeit bis 40% in der Phase des voll entwickelten Monsuns variiert. Der Energieaustausch zwischen den „Wirbeln” und den grosskaligen Windkomponenten zeigt an, daß während der Phase des entwickelten Monsuns die untere Troposphäre bis 700 mb eine baroklin instabile Grundströmung zu haben scheint, während in den anderen Phasen die Grundströmung im allgemeinen barotrop instabil ist.
    Notes: Summary The daily upper-air wind data, obtained from the MONEX-79 ship observing platforms, are subjected to a 2-D filter, whose wavenumber response is such as to filter out waves having wavelengths less than 760 km. The filtered wind components are referred to as “eddies”. The kinetic energies of these eddies during the three phases of the monsoon, viz. (a) pre-onset (May), (b) onset (June), (c) established (July) are studied. It is found that the contribution to the kinetic energies of the total wind, by the eddies, vary from a minimum of about 15.5% during the pre-onset phase to a maximum of 40% during the established phase. The energy exchanges between the eddy and large-scale wind components, indicate that during the established phase the lower troposphere, upto 700 mb, appears to have a baroclinically unstable basic flow, while during the other phases, the basic flow is, in general, barotropically unstable.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 310-310 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 339-352 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Ein zeitabhängiges, auf den Grundgleichungen basierendes, numerisches Modell wurde verwendet, um die Hypothese zu prüfen, daß solare Veränderlichkeit eine Änderung in den Grundvariablen der oberen Atmosphäre und somit in der planetaren Langwellenstruktur der unteren Atmosphäre hervorrufen kann. Dieser Mechanismus wurde zur Erklärung einer offensichtlichen, atmosphärischen Reaktion auf solare Schwankungen herangezogen. Im Modell wird diese Veränderlichkeit durch eine diabatische Wärmequelle hervorgerufen, welche als eine einfache Repräsentation der Jouleschen Dissipationserwärmung angenommen wird. Die Langwellenstruktur der unteren Atmosphäre zeigte sich als unbeeinflußbar durch sonneninduzierte Vorgänge in der oberen Atmosphäre. Tatsächlich auftretende Veränderungen sind auf eine Distanz von 25 bis 40 km unterhalb des Niveaus maximaler Erwärmung beschränkt und sind von nur kurzer Lebensdauer.
    Notes: Summary A time-dependent, primitive-equation numerical model is used to test the hypothesis that solar variations induce changes in the distributions of basic state variables at high levels in the atmosphere, and thus induce changes in planetary-scale wave structure at lower atmospheric levels. This mechanism was proposed to explain apparent atmospheric responses to solar activity. The changes are brought about in the model by a diabatic heat source, which is taken to be a simple representation of Joule dissipative heating. Lower atmospheric wave structure is found to be insensitive to solar-induced changes in the upper atmosphere. Such changes as do occur are limited to within 25 to 40 km below the level of maximum heating, and are also quite short-lived.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 389-397 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Wir betrachten die Dynamik langer Wellen mit begrenzter Amplitude in einer quasigeostrophischen Atmosphäre. Es wird gezeigt, daß sie den von Charney und Drazin formulierten Theoremen für vertikale Reflexion und Verbindung mit der zonalen Strömung genügen. Es wird ferner gezeigt, daß der typische Effekt des kritischen Niveaus auch für solche Wellen gilt.
    Notes: Summary We consider the dynamics of finite amplitude long waves in a quasi-geostrophic atmosphere. It is shown that they satisfy the well known theorems, formulated by Charney and Drazin, for vertical reflection and coupling with zonal flow. It is further shown that the typical critical level effect holds for such waves as well.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 405-406 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 32 (1983), S. 337-360 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die bodennahen nordhemisphärischen Temperaturvariationen 1881–1980 und einige in Frage kommende externe Einflußparameter werden statistisch untersucht. Die statistischen Maßzahlen und Tests jährlicher und jahreszeitlicher Daten zeigen, daß es sinnvoll ist, den tiefpaßgefilterten langfristigen Trend (T 〉 30 Jahre) vom verbleibenden hochpaßgefilterten Anteil zu trennen, wobei dieser weitgehend die Charakteristika einer stationären und vielleicht auch stochastischen Zeitreihe erfüllt. Der langfristige Trend muß jedoch als die nicht-stationäre Komponente angesehen werden, die vermutlich von externen Einflußmechanismen des Klimasystems gesteuert wird. Die spektral-statistischen Untersuchungen stützen dieses Konzept, weisen jedoch auch, wie die nicht-spektralen Untersuchungen, auf jahreszeitliche Besonderheiten hin. 84–91% des langfristigen (aber nur 38–65% des jährlichen) Anteils der Varianz lassen sich durch vulkanisch-solare Parameter sowie den beobachteten anthropogenen CO2-Anstieg erklären, wobei die Erfassung des solaren Einflusses sehr problematisch ist. Multiple lineare Korrelations- und Regressionsanalysen führen zu Abschätzungen der Signal-Amplituden und des Signal-Rausch-Verhältnisses. Neben dem vulkanischen und solaren Signal ist das CO2-Signal in den Jahresdaten, weniger signifikant in den Sommerdaten, auffindbar.
    Notes: Summary This is a statistical study on the northern hemisphere temperature variations near surface, 1881–1980, and some possible external forcing parameters. The statistical measures and tests of yearly and seasonal data indicate that it is reasonable to separate the low-pass filtered long-term trend (T 〉 30 years) from the remaining high-pass filtered quantity, where the latter fulfills closely the characteristics of a stationary may be stochastic time series. The long-term trend, however, has to be seen as the non-stationary component presumably driven by external forcing mechanisms of the climatic system. The spectral statistics maintain this concept; but there are, as in case of the non-spectral statistics, distinct seasonal peculiarities. 84–91% of the long-term (but only 38–65% of the yearly data's) variance can be explained by volcanic/solar parameters and the observed anthropogenic CO2 increase, where the solar influence, however, is very problematical to realize. A multiple linear correlation and regression analysis leads to assessments of the signal magnitudes and the signal to noise ratios. Besides the volcanic and solar signal, the CO2 signal is detectable in yearly and — less significant — in summer data.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1984), S. 11-20 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Energieflüsse wurden im Dischma-Tal in der Nähe von Davos in 1970 m Höhe vom 6. bis 15. August 1980 gemessen. Sie waren ein Teil einer Sonderuntersuchung mikroskaliger atmosphärischer Bedingungen in einem alpinen Tal. Die allgemeine Funktion ϕ H konnte von einem Satz von Profilmessungen der Temperatur, der Feuchtigkeit und der Windgeschwindigkeit abgeleitet werden. Sie entspricht der Beziehung, die auch über homogenem Terrain gefunden worden ist.
    Notes: Summary Surface energy fluxes were measured in the Dischma-valley near Davos, Switzerland at 1970 m from August 6th to August 15th, 1980. They are part of a case study for the microscale atmospheric conditions of an alpine valley. The universal function ϕ H could be derived from the whole set of profile measurements of temperature, humidity and wind speed. It corresponds to the relation which was found over homogeneous terrain.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1984), S. 31-37 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die nichtlineare Wechselwirkung zwischen großskaligen Rossby-Wellen wird mit Anwendung eines spektralen Modells einer barotropen Atmosphäre in sphärischer Geometrie einer Betrachtung unterzogen. Es wurde gefunden, daß es, wenn eine willkürliche Zahl von zonalen Komponenten in Betracht gezogen wird, möglich ist, die nichtlineare Energie- und Entropie-Strömung zwischen Rossby-Wellen vorherzusagen, deren Wechselwirkung mit einfacher triadischer Resonanz nicht vorhergesagt werden kann. Mit Beziehung auf die Ergebnisse einer Arbeit von Baines wird gezeigt, daß eine solche Art von zonal mittlerer, nichtlinearer Energieströmung imstande ist, einige wichtige Besonderheiten der numerischen Integration von verkürzten Modellen mit einer großen Zahl von Komponenten zu erklären, und als Folgerung an einigen Besonderheiten der großskaligen Zirkulation schuld sein könnte.
    Notes: Summary The non-linear interaction between large-scale Rossby waves is considered making use of a spectral model of a barotropic atmosphere in spherical geometry. It is found that, if an arbitrary number of zonal components is taken into account it is possible to predict the non-linear energy and enstrophy flux between Rossby waves whose interaction cannot be predicted by single triadic resonance. It is shown, referring to the results of a paper by Baines, that such kind of, zonally mediated, non-linear energy flux is capable of explaining some relevant features of numerical integrations of truncated models with a large number of components and, could, as a consequence be responsible of some features of the large-scale circulation.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1984), S. 49-53 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird ein einfacher theoretischer Vergleich zwischen dem Phänomen der Entwicklung von Mischungsschichten in Laboratoriumsexperimenten und in wirklichen geophysikalischen Situationen durchgeführt. Die relative Wichtigkeit von Inversionschichten in der Atmosphäre wird im Kontrast zur vernachlässigbaren Rolle dargelegt, die die Inversionsschicht bei Laboratoriumsexperimenten spielt, solange der Effekt von ausgestrahlten Schwerwellen in Betracht gezogen wird.
    Notes: Summary A simple theoretical comparison is carried out between the phenomenon of the evolution of mixed layers in laboratory experiments and in actual geophysical situations. The relative importance of the inversion layers in the atmosphere is evidentiated in contrast with the negligible role played by the inversion layer in laboratory experiments as long as the effect of radiated gravity waves is taken into account.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1984), S. 61-67 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es werden die Verhältnisse im Luft-Meer-Grenzbereich im frühen Entwicklungsstand einer Depression über der östlichen zentralen Arabischen See während der Monsun MONEX-79 durch Analyse der Schiffsbeobachtungsdaten über Luft- und Meerestemperaturen, Luftdruck an der Oberfläche, Seegang und Wind untersucht. Diese Analyse zeigte eine ausgesprochene Zunahme der Temperaturdifferenz zwischen Meer und Luft (2–4 °C) und diese Zunahme erweist sich klar als durch eine Abnahme der Lufttemperatur verursacht. Die änderungen in der Temperaturdifferenz zwischen Meer und Luft und des Luftdrucks verlaufen in zueinander entgegengesetzter Phase. Einige einleuchtende Mechanismen für die beginnende Entwicklung und die Bewegung der Depression werden auch besprochen.
    Notes: Summary The air-sea interface properties during the early stages of formation of a depression over East Central Arabian Sea during summer MONEX are examined by analyzing the ship data for air and sea temperatures, sea level pressures, sea state numbers and wind fields. Analysis of the data revealed a pronounced increase in sea-air temperature difference (2–4 °C) and this increase in the value is considered, obviously, to be due to a drop in the air temperature. The variations in the sea-air temperature difference and surface pressure are in opposite phase to each other. Some of the plausible mechanisms for the incipient development and movement of the depression are also discussed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1983), S. 19-30 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Auf der Grundlage von ausgeglichenen Energieflüssen (einschließlich Abfuhr der Nutzungsenergie) innerhalb einer flachen Sonnenenergie-Kollektorplatte und von Energieflüssen zwischen Kollektor und seiner Umgebung wird mit Verwendung von bekannten Klimadaten ein Módell für die Simulation von Tagesgängen des Energieaustausches und -gewinns entwickelt. Numerische Experimente mit diesem Modell zeigen auch eine interessante Abhängigkeit der nutzbaren Energie von einigen meteorologischen Parametern wie Nebel, Niederschläge und Wind.
    Notes: Summary On the basis of balanced energy fluxes (including the removal of useful energy) inside the flat-plate solar-energy collector, and the energy fluxes between the collector and its environment, a model for simulation of daily courses of energy exchanges and gain is constructed, using the known climatic data. Numerical experiments with this model show also an interesting dependence of useful energy on some meteorological parameters like: fog, precipitations and wind.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 33 (1983), S. 11-18 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Zur Untersúchung der Ausbreitungs- und Konzentrationsformen von Autoabgasen von einer Straße in einem V-förmigen Tal wird ein numerisches Modell angewendet. Diese Formen sind mit dem Windzirkulationssystem der bei Tag und bei Nacht vorherrschenden Strömung quer zum Tal eng verbunden. An einem typischen Tag mit einer relativ starken Oberflächenerwärmung war die Abgasfahne zum Leehang gegen den Kamm hin geneigt und bog dann zurück zur Abwindrichtung mit der vorherrschenden Strömung. In einer typischen Nacht mit stabiler Schichtung zeigte die Ausbreitung nicht die Form einer Abgasfahne, sondern eher eine diffuse Ausbreitung aufwärts und eine mehr oder weniger horizontale Verbreitung.
    Notes: Summary A numerical model is utilized to investigate the dispersion and concentration pattern of vehicular exhaust gas from a v-shaped valley highway. These patterns are closely associated with the wind circulation regimes in the prevailing cross-valley flow during typical day and night times. In the typical day with relative strong surface heating the exhaust plume first inclined to the lee slope toward to the ridge then curved back to the downwind direction with the prevailing flow; in the typical night with stable condition the dispersion showed no plume pattern but rather diffused upward and spread out more or less horizontally.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 4 (1951), S. 112-121 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary In order to explain the position of the great quasi-stationary troughs and ensuing a computation ofCharney andEliassen, the author takes into consideration, apart from the influence of the upheavals of the earth's surface, also the supply and loss of heat. The latter influence proves to be more powerful than the first one, and taking it into consideration the result is in satisfactory agreement with the observed values.
    Abstract: Résumé Afin d'expliquer la situation des grands creux quasistationnaires sont pris en considération, en suivant une méthode deCharney etEliassen, à part l'influence des élévations de la surface terrestre, celle due à l'apport et la perte de chaleur, qui se révèle encore plus efficace que la première. Seulement en en tenant compte le résultat correspond d'une façon satisfaisante aux conditions observées.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Zur Erklärung der Lage der großen quasistationären Tröge wird einem Rechnungsgang vonCharney undEliassen folgend, neben dem Einfluß der Erhebung der Erdoberfläche auch noch derjenige der Wärmeaufnahme und-abgabe herangezogen, der sich noch größer als der erstgenannte erweist. Erst nach seiner Berücksichtigung steht das Resultat in befriedigender Übereinstimmung mit den beobachteten Werten.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 4 (1951), S. 122-141 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary A verification of the prognostic formula for predicting the height profile of the 500 mb pressure surface at a fixed latitude derived byCharney andEliassen shows that a practical application is limited at least for the period under consideration (January 1949). Only in case of relatively small perturbations and rather uniform current along the latitude circle the formula seems to be successful in day-to-day forecast procedures.
    Abstract: Résumé Une vérification portant sur le mois de janvier 1949 de la formule pronostique établie parCharney etEliassen et applicable aux variations de la surface de 500 mb. le long d'un parallèle géographique déterminé montre que son emploi dans la pratique de la prévision du temps est encore douteux. Ce n'est que dans le cas d'une composante zonale du vent à peu près uniforme et lors de petites perturbations correspondantes qu'une prévision calculée de la tendance de pression de l'onde supérieure de pression en un lieu déterminé semble possible.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Eine Überprüfung der vonCharney undEliassen abgeleiteten Prognosenformel für Änderungen der 500 mb-Fläche entlang einer bestimmten geographischen Breite ergibt, daß in den untersuchten Fällen (Januar 1949) eine Verwendung im praktischen Wetterdienst noch fraglich ist. Nur bei verhältnismäßig einheitlicher zonaler Windkomponente und bei entsprechend kleinen Störungen scheint eine Vorausberechnung der Drucktendenz der „oberen” Druckwelle für einen bestimmten Ort mit Hilfe der Formel möglich zu sein.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 4 (1951), S. 296-308 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Summary First a brief survey is given of the wind effect on the phenomena of rising and ebbing water masses on the oceanic coasts. Particularly, the results obtained byH. U. Sverdrup andR. H. Fleming from successive oceanographic measurements of a profile perpendicular to the Californian coast are discussed. From them a convenient scheme is concluded for the development of cold coastal water out of a preceding stage of warm water. The great number of observation data of the Marine Life Research Programe obtained ever since 1949 by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (University of California) at La Jolla from monthly oceanographic measurements of the area off the North American western coast allows a deeper insight into the important phenomenon of upwelling cold water in the area. A preliminary study of two opposite situations of rising and ebbing water masses showed the wind disturbance to consist of two parts: 1. of a disturbance of the ground distribution which generates the regular Californian current, the disturbance consisting in generally weakening or intensifying this current; 2. of a wave disturbance perpendicular to the coast proceeding from the rising, respectively ebbing coastal water masses. These relations could be established quantitatively by a simple theoretical model. A theoretical case with numerical values approximately corresponding to the conditions off the Californian coast showed good agreement with the observed facts.
    Abstract: Résumé On donne tout d'abord un court aperçu de l'effet du vent sur le flux et le reflux de masses d'eau sur les côtes océaniques. On expose en particulier les résultats obtenus parH. U. Sverdrup etR. H. Fleming à l'aide de profils successifs, normaux à la côte californienne. Ils fournissent un schéma convenable pour la formation d'une masse d'eau côtière froide dérivant d'un stade préalable d'eaux chaudes. Le grand matériel d'observations du Marine Life Research programme obtenu depuis 1949 par la Scripps Institution of Oceanography (University of California, La Jolla) sous forme de relevés océanographiques mensuels du domaine marin de la côte occidentale de l'Amérique du Nord permettra d'approfondir nos connaissances sur le phénomène de l'advection ascensionnelle d'eau froide important en ces régions. Une étude préliminaire de deux situations opposées de flux et de reflux de masses d'eau a montré que l'effet du vent se décompose en: 1o une perturbation de la répartition de base donnant naissance au courant régulier de Californie et qui consiste à affaiblir ou à renforcer respectivement ce courant; 2o une perturbation de nature ondulatoire, perpendiculaire à la côte, provenant du flux ou du reflux des masses d'eau le long de la côte. Un modèle théorique simple a permis de soumettre ces relations au calcul, et la comparaison d'un cas théorique dont les dimensions correspondaient approximativement aux conditions régnant devant la côte californienne a fourni un bon accord avec les faits observés.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Einleitend wird eine kurze Übersicht der Wirkung der Winde beim Zustandekommen der Erscheinungen des Anstaues und Abtriebes von Wassermassen an ozeanischen Küsten gegeben. Insbesondere werden die Ergebnisse vonH. U. Sverdrup undR. H. Fleming besprochen, die sie aus aufeinanderfolgenden ozeanographischen Aufnahmen eines Profils senkrecht zur kalifornischen Küste gewonnen haben. Sie ergeben ein passendes Schema für die Entwicklung eines kalten Küstenwassers aus einem Vorstadium mit warmem Wasser. Das große Beobachtungsmaterial des Marine Life Research Programs, das seit 1949 von der Scripps Institution of Oceanography (University of California) in La Jolla in monatlichen ozeanographischen Aufnahmen des Meeresgebietes vor der nordamerikanischen Westküste gewonnen wird, wird die Kenntnisse des für diese Gebiete wichtigen Kaltwasserauftriebsphänomens wesentlich zu vertiefen gestatten. Eine vorläufige Bearbeitung zweier konträrer Situationen von Anstau und Abtrieb von Wassermassen zeigte, daß die Windstörung aus zwei Teilen besteht: 1. Aus einer Störung der Grundverteilung, der der reguläre kalifornische Strom entspringt und die in einer allgemeinen Schwächung bzw. Verstärkung desselben besteht, und 2. aus einer Wellenstörung senkrecht zur Küste, die von Anstau bzw. Abtrieb der Wassermassen an der Küste ihren Ausgang nimmt. Ein einfaches theoretisches Modell ließ diese Zusammenhänge zahlenmäßig erfassen, und ein Vergleich eines theoretischen Falles mit Zahlenwerten, die ungefähr den Verhältnissen vor der kalifornischen Küste entsprechen, mit den Beobachtungstatsachen ergab gute Übereinstimmung.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 4 (1951), S. 338-342 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary The relatively big thermal mass of radio-sondes as compared with their thermometer, can falsify the measurement of the temperature above 7 to 8 km., what is called the thermal “training effect”, (lag effect); this effect has been described in the Annals of the Swiss Central Meteorological Institute [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. The present paper shows the influence of the training effect on the former Swiss official sonde. The difference of temperature has been measured by means of a series of soundings where this type was coupled at the same balloon with a special sonde where this effect had been avoided.
    Abstract: Résumé Letrainage thermique, provenant de la grande masse calorifique des sondes peut fausser notablement la mesure de température dès 7 à 8 km d'altitude. La théorie de cet effet a été publié dans les Annales de la Centrale Suisse de Météorologie [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. L'article présent décrit l'influence du trainage thermique sur l'ancienne sonde du service suisse. II a été mesuré à l'aide d'une série de sondage, en comparant l'indication de température de cette sonde, avec celle d'une sonde spéciale dénuée de trainage thermique et suspendue au même ballon.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Die gegenüber dem Radiosondenthermometer relativ große Masse der übrigen Sondenteile bildet die Ursache einer Temperaturfalschmessung ab zirka 7 bis 8 km Höhe, welcheTrainageeffekt genannt wird, und in verschiedenen Arbeiten in den Annalen der Schweizerischen Meteorologischen Zentralanstalt [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] beschrieben wurde. In vorliegender Arbeit wird der Einfluß dieses Effektes auf die frühere schweizerische Dienstsonde gemessen. Zu diesem Zwecke wurde dieser Sondentyp jeweils zusammen mit einer Spezialsonde am gleichen Ballon gestartet und die Temperaturdifferenz in Funktion der Höhe bestimmt.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 4 (1951), S. 343-350 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Um die Auswirkung einer Zunahme der ultravioletten Sonnenstrahlung auf das atmosphärische Ozon zu untersuchen, wurden beim Auftreten desMögel-Dellinger-Effekts (Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances, S. I. D.) Ozonmessungen angestellt. Unter der Annahme, daß an den Tagen mit S. I. D. das Verhältnis der Intensität der extraterrestrischen Sonnenstrahlung bei 3110 Å zu der bei 3300 Å konstant bleibt, findet man, daß die gleichzeitigen Ozonänderungen entweder sehr klein sind oder ganz fehlen, was in Übereinstimmung mit dem theoretisch zu erwartenden Verhalten ist.
    Abstract: Résumé Pour examiner l'effet de croissance de la radiation solaire ultraviolette sur l'ozone total atmosphérique, des mesures de l'ozone ont été faites pendant certains jours avec des perturbations ionosphériques brusques (Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances, S. I. D.) qui apparaissent ordinairement simultanément avec une éruption solaire. Si l'on suppose que le quotient de l'intensité extra-terrestre du rayonnement solaire pour λ-3110 Å à celle pour λ=3300 Å est constant, on constate que les variations de l'ozone coïncidentes avec les S. I. D. sont petites ou manquent complètement ce qui est en bon accord qualitatif avec la théorie.
    Notes: Summary In order to investigate the effect of increased solar ultraviolet radiation on total atmospheric ozone, ozone observations have been made during sudden ionospheric disturbances (S. I. D.). If one can assume that the ratio of the extraterrestrial intensity of sunlight at 3110 Å to that at 3300 Å (the wavelengths observed by the measuring instrument) remains unchanged during days with S. I. D., it is found that ozone changes associated with S. I. D. s are small or absent, in agreement with qualitative theoretical expectation.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 4 (1951), S. 391-402 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary On the basis of numerous observations it is shown that theF 2 layer ionisation has a pronounced half-year periodicity. Amplitude and phase of these variations underly various influences and, above all, depend in a determined way on the observation stations. An attempt is made to explain this annual double-period by the rather obvious assumption that the UV-intensity of the solar radiation depends on latitude and is smaller on the solar equator than in medium heliographic latitudes. Thereby, not only the double-period of the critical frequencies, but also the hitherto uncleared double-period of the apparent layer heights can be accounted for.
    Abstract: Résumé Se fondant sur un important matériel d'observations, on prouve que l'ionisation de la coucheF 2 présente une période semi-annuelle accusée. L'amplitude et la phase de cette variation sont soumises à différentes influences et dépendent en particulier de la position des stations d'observation. On tente d'expliquer cette période semi-annuelle en faisant l'hypothèse, en soi très vraisemblable, que l'intensité du rayonnement solaire ultra-violet dépend de la latitude héliaque et qu'elle est plus faible à l'équateur solaire qu'aux latitudes moyennes. Cela permet d'expliquer non seulement la période double des fréquences critiques, mais encore la période double jusqu'ici inexpliquée des hauteurs apparentes des couches ionisées.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung An Hand zahlreichen Beobachtungsmaterials wird der Nachweis erbracht, daß dieF 2-Schicht-Ionisation eine ausgeprägte halbjährige Periodizität besitzt. Amplitude und Phase dieser Schwankungen unterliegen verschiedenen Einflüssen, so sind sie vor allem in bestimmter Weise von den Beobachtungsstationen abhängig. Es wird versucht, eine Erklärung für diese jährliche Doppelperiode zu geben, und zwar in der Weise, daß die an sich ja sehr naheliegende Annahme gemacht wird, daß die UV-Intersität der Sonne breitenabhängig ist und am Sonnenäquator geringer ist als in mittleren heliographischen Breiten. Damit kann nicht nur die Doppelperiode der kritischen Frequenzen erklärt werden, sondern es wird auch die bisher ungeklärte Doppelperiode der scheinbaren Schichthöhen verständlich.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 167-194 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Low-frequency modes of the monsoon are examined in the context of their radiation balance and diagnosed for the 13-month period between May 1979 and May 1980 using Earth radiation budget and cloud measurements taken by experiments carried on board the Nimbus-7 satellite. Simultaneous observations of the albedo, longwave radiation, absorbed shortwave radiation, and net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), and the total cloud fraction and cloud-top temperature are considered. The use of broad-band radiation budget measurements permits a description of the observed longwave, shortwave, and net radiative energy exchange by the low-frequency modes. When wavenumber one fields are considered, the entire morphology of the 1979 summer monsoon (pre-onset, onset, break, re-intensification, and withdrawal) can be fully explained in terms of an eastward propagating mode. Ridge passages occurred over the Arabian Sea and India in June prior to onset, during the July break, and during the retreat of the monsoon. Trough passages occurred prior to the onset during a period of increased tropical cyclone activity, at the time of the onset, and immediately following the break. These low-frequency waves can be unambiguously tracked around the world over extended time periods. The latitudinal structure of the waves indicated that a thermally direct Hadley Cell perturbation propagated eastward with the oscillation. These cells were evident from extratropical extensions of the oscillation, each about 180° of longitude out-of-phase with the tropical oscillation. Because the absorbed shortwave and emitted longwave radrative components are in phase and of nearly identical amplitudes, the net radiative effect of the low-frequency mode is small in general. However, in certain latitudinal belts, the passage of the waves induced perturbations in the net radiation. Because longwave cloud-radiative forcing acts in the same direction as latent heat release, it is able to contribute to the diabatic energetics maintaining the structure and propagation of the eastward propagating 30- to 60-day waves. Between trough and ridge, the TOA longwave flux varies in a coherent manner by on the order of 50 to 60 Wm−2.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 153-165 
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    Notes: Summary The interannual variability of the monthly mean upper layer thickness for the central Arabian Sea (5°N-15° N and 60° E-70° E) from a numerical model of the Indian Ocean during the period 1954–1976 is investigated in relation to Indian monsoon rainfall variability. The variability in the surface structure of the Somali Current in the western Arabian Sea is also briefly discussed. It is found that these fields show a great deal of interannual variability that is correlated with variability in Indian monsoon rainfall. Model upper layer thickness (H) is taken as a surrogate variable for thermocline depth, which is assumed to be correlated with sea surface temperature. In general, during the period 1967 to 1974, which is a period of lower than normal monsoon rainfall, the upper ocean warm water sphere is thicker (deeper thermocline which implies warmer surface water); in contrast, during the period 1954–1966, which is a period of higher than normal monsoon rainfall, the upper warm water sphere is thinner (shallower thermocline which implies cooler surface water). The filtered time series of uppper layer thickness indieates the presence of a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the wet monsoon period, but this QBO signal is conspicuously absent during the dry monsoon period. Since model H primarily responds to wind stress curl, the interannual variability of the stress curl is investigated by means of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOF modes represent more than 72% of the curl variance. The spatial patterns for these modes exhibit many elements of central Arabian Sea climatology. Features observed include the annual variation in the intensity of the summer monsoon ridge in the Arabian Sea and the annual zonal oscillation of the ridge during pre- and post-monsoon seasons. The time coefficients for the first EOF amplitude indicate the presence of a QBO during the wet monsoon period only, as seen in the ocean upper layer thickness. The variability in the model upper layer thickness is a passive response to variability in the wind field, or more specifically to variability in the Findlater Jet. When the winds are stronger, they drive stronger currents in the ocean and have stronger curl fields associated with them, driving stronger Ekman pumping. They transport more moisture from the southern hemisphere toward the Indian subcontinent, and they also drive a greater evaporative heat flux beneath the Findlater Jet in the Arabian Sea. It has been suggested that variability in the heat content of the Arabian Sea drives variability in Indian monsoon rainfall. The results of this study suggest that the opposite is true, that the northern Arabian Sea responds passively to variability in the monsoon system.
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    Notes: Summary The role of organized tropical storms and typhoons within the West Pacific-Indian Ocean dipole of low frequency activity is examined with the aid of INSAT satellite observations. Two Asian summer monsoon seasons-1984 and 1987-are analyzed in conjunction with a satellite derived convective index. The former year was noted as an above average Indian monsoon; the latter year as an extreme Indian monsoon failure. The analysis demonstrates that the dipole region is actually an organized collection of seven smaller scale high amplitude, low frequency centers which blur together to form the semblance of a dipole which had been originally identified in 2.5° resolution outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data derived from NOAA satellite measurements. The centers are basically situated over oceanic regions in the eastern and western sectors of the dipole, although, an isolated high amplitude center is also found over central Tibet. Of considerable interest is that the locations of the seven centers, whereas not equivalent, are very similar for both the 1984 and 1987 seasonsinar. The analysis indicates that there are coherent phase relationships between the eastern sector of the dipole and the western sector, but that it is not a simple dipole-like process. Rather, the four high amplitude centers, within the western sector, all fall within a longitudinal channel in which the well known, northward propagating behavior of Monsoon convection anomalies serves to modulate the east-west phase lag along the meridional channel. The result is that the western paelfic phase lags the equatorial Indian Ocean center whereas it generally phase leads the more northern centers within the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. In the two years studied here, there is little evidence of east-west propagation of anomalies between he two centers. The contribution of organized tropical storms and cyclones to the amplitude and phase characteristics of the high amplitude centers is irregular but important, particularly in the eastern sector of the dipole, where up to 50% of the variance can be explained by organized storms. It is also shown that the influence of storms on the phase propagation characteristics of convective anomalies is irregular but significant.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 219-250 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Notes: Summary In this paper we have studied the low frequency variability of the sensible and latent heat flux over the Indian monsoon area. We have used an atmospheric energy budget (vertical integrated heat sources and moisture sinks), as well as the similarity theory in order to compute the surface fluxes on a darly basis. Mainly, the three following data sets were used: the First GARP Global Experiment analyzed data, the TIROS-N outgoing longwave radiation data and the Monsoon Experiment precipitation data. Our three main findings are the following. First, the variability of the temperature and the specific humidity at the surface is more important over the land than over the sea on the intraseasonal time scale (30% over land, but 20% over sea). For the wind an energy peak appears clearly around 30–40 days. The surface fluxes show an uneven variance percentage field (10% to 40%); the energy peaks stretch from 10 to 40 days. Second, the wind has a significant influence on the surface fluxes, except at some locations exclusively over the land areas. Of the temperature and the specific humidity, the temperature is the one which influences the fluxes the most. (This influence may be very strong over land.) The specific humidity may have a significant influence, over the land and sea, at the same time. Thus, one cannot neglect the influence of temperature and specific humidity over land on the intraseasonal time scale. Third, we have found a close relation between the propagation of low frequency waves and the propagation of surface flux patterns. This may suggest a feedback mechanism which relates surface processes to the northward propagation of these waves over India.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 265-279 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Using a General Circulation Model developed at FSU (FSUGCM), the role of the diabatic heating on the 30–60-day oscillation is investigated. To concentrate on the radiation and the moist convection processes, an aqua planet model is employed in this paper. We have obtained a 40-day oscillation with relatively lower frequency than other GCMs without strong heating in the lower troposphere. Unlike some GCMs and simple models, the convective area does not move eastward along with the oscillation. Adiabatic cooling due to the upward motion is mostly compensated by diabatic heating. This implies that Kelvin CISK theory might not explain our 40-day oscillation. We have also examined the impact of radiative heating on the low frequency oscillation. When we reduce the radiative cooling rate, our 40-day mode does not appear and a Kelvin CISK mode appears with a faster phase speed. The impact of the different convection schemes is also investigated. With an enhanced convection scheme, zonal wave number two with a 40-day period is generated.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 281-292 
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    Notes: Summary The present paper discusses the build-up, the air mass transformation and the propagation of the Siberian high as well as its relations to the development of cold surges in East Asia. It has been found that (1) the genesis and development of the Siberian high result from the combined effects of the mass convergence at middle and upper-level and the radiative cooling; (2) the apparent transformation of the Siberian high over land is observed in winter, which is caused by the upward sensible heat and latent heat flux from the underlying surface; (3) the Siberian high and its attendant cold air outbreaks usually undergo a marked low-frequency, southward propagation with the period of 10–20 days; (4) activity of cold surge over the East China Sea and the South China Sea is closely related to the intensity of the Siberian high. The active cold surge occurs when the Siberian high is usually strong.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 44 (1990), S. 251-263 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary The Indian summer monsoon, one of the earth's most vigorous and energetic seasonally occurring weather events, influences the global atmospheric circulation. Its onset, duration, and intensity are governed by large- and meso-scale geophysical processes, such as surface solar heating and air-sea interactions. In this paper, using innovative combinations of satellite sensor data, we investigate some of these fundamental processes which are closely tied to clouds and control the monsoon system's evolution. The study, which focuses on the monsoon period of June, 1979, examines the low-frequency variability of clouds and their effects on air-sea processes through an analysis of the complex influence clouds play on the surface heat and water budgets. First, the effects of clouds on both the solar and longwave components of the surface radiation budget are assessed using a cloud radiative forcing parameter. While the effects of clouds on the long-wave irradiance act in a manner opposite to their effects on the shortwave irradiance, only a partial compensation is found to take place and the net effect results in a maximum cloud forcing of 60 Wm−2 in the southwestern Arabian Sea. Second, employing satellite-derived precipitation and evaporation estimates, the paper analyzes the net surface fresh water budget variability around the monsoon onset. This budget is important in that fresh water affects the upper ocean density distribution and, consequently, the thermohaline circulation. Two regions are found to dominate the analysis: the western Arabian Sea, where evaporation is dominant by more than 10 mm day−1, and the eastern Arabian Sea, where precipitation is dominant by more than 10 mm day−1. Thus, a strong zonal gradient of fresh water at the surface is established during the monsoon. The last topic investigated is the intraseasonal variability of convection as analyzed using a cloud parameter indicative of deep convection. Cloud oscillations of 30–50 days, associated with the different phases of the monsoon, are found to propagate northward in the eastern Indian Ocean and eastward in the Bay of Bengal. Our analysis not only supports the hypothesis that the 30–50-day oscillation is driven by deep convection but also, and more importantly, suggests that the ocean thermal forcing is modulated by 30–50-day oscillations through cloud-induced surface radiative forcing. Although the results presented are limited in scope and preliminary because of the diffculty in quantifying the accuracy of the parameters examined, they do demonstrate: 1) the role of clouds in modulating the surface heat and water budgets, 2) the advantage of using combinations of multi-sensor and multi-platform satellite observations to quantify interrelated surface heat/water budget processes, and 3) the potential to examine the intraseasonal variability of air-sea interaction processes associated with the monsoon, even though these processes are not directly measurable from space.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 45 (1991), S. 1-13 
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    Notes: Summary The monthly mean Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) data from June 1974 to May 1988 (Fourteen year period) derived from the NOAA polar orbiter are analysed to examine the inter-annual variability in OLR fluxes over the indian sub-continent and adjoining Seas. The monthly mean OLR data are further analysed to observe the seasonal and annual OLR variations among the specified regions over the sub-continent. Linear and multiple correlation statistics have been applied to explain the homogeneities among the various regions in terms of long term annual as well as seasonal OLR means. Derived results show close links between selected regions where as poor and, in few cases, even negative correlations exist between some regions. Considerable differences have been observed between the regions in annual and in seasonal OLR variances. Similar analysis has been done for rainfall of the subcontinent based on fourteen year's data. The rainfall analyses for the selected regions over India illustrate a rather poor association between OLR and rainfall distribution variability. On the basis of our results discussed in this paper, it is viewed that Satellite-Derived OLR could be treated only as of marginal use for space-time precipitation analyses.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 67-87 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung In einem Artikel von Garrat ([5], S. 915), der sich zusammenfassend und kritisch mit der jüngsten Forschung über die aerodynamische Reibung über einer Wasseroberfläche auseinandersetzt, heißt es: “Die Auswirkungen des Fetches, der Dauer und der Unstetigkeit eines Windes sind unbekannt und verstecken sich wohl hinter der Streuung der experimentellen Resultate”. In unserem Artikel ist ein Versuch unternommen worden, vorhandene Resultate von Experimenten am Genfersee auf eine Fetchabhängigkeit zu untersuchen. Dabei wird eine funktionelle Beziehung zwischen dem lokalen Reibungs- oder Widerstandskoeffizienten,C 10, und einer Fetch-Reynoldszahl, (U 10 F)/ν, mit einer dimensionslosen Rauhigkeit,F/y 0, als Parameter vorgeschlagen. Weiter wird gezeigt, daß eine Beziehung zwischen dem Rauhigkeitsparameter und dem Seegang (ausgedrückt als signifikante Welle,H 1/3) möglich ist. Diese Studie sollte als Vorstudie angesehen werden; sie diente unter anderem als Grundlage für ein größeres aerodynamisches Projekt am Genfersee.
    Abstract: Résumé Dans un article récent sur le coefficient de frottement, Garrat ([5], p. 915) laisse supposer que «les effets du fetch, de la durée et de la variabilité du vent s'ils existent, demeurent obscurs dans la dispersion des données expérimentales». Dans cet article, on essayera d'analyser l'éventuelle dépendance du fetch sur les données obtenues au cours des campagnes de mesures sur le Léman. On admettra qu'une relation entre le coefficient de frottement local,C 10, et le nombre de Reynolds de fetch,(U 10 F)/ν, existe, avec la rugosité adimensionelle,F/y 0, comme paramètre. Puis on discutera de l'éventuelle relation entre le paramètre de rugosité et l'état de surface du lac (exprimé ici en fonction de la vague significative). Cette étude est à considérer plutôt comme un travail préliminaire à l'établissement d'un nouveau programme expérimental projeté sur le Léman.
    Notes: Summary In a recent review on the drag coefficient, Garrat ([5], p. 915) pointed to the fact that “The effect (if any) of the fetch, wind duration and unsteadyness remains obscure in this experimental data scatter”. The present paper makes an attempt to analyse, in the light of a fetch dependency, data which have been accumulated on the Lake of Geneva. Postulated is a possible functional relationship between the local drag coefficient,C 10, and a fetch Reynolds number, (U 10 F)/ν, with a dimensionless roughness,F/y 0, as parameter. Subsequently, a possible relationship between the roughness parameter and the sea state (expressed presently with the significant wave) is discussed. The present study should be considered as preliminary in as much as it served to establish another field programme on Lake Geneva.
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  • 99
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 89-107 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Summary There are typical cloud configurations in satellite images which are produced and/or maintained mainly by vorticity. These are: comma, enhanced cumuli, wave in a frontalband, upper level low and the cloud spiral of a low. Looking at satellite images there can be observed sometimes an increase sometimes a decrease during the further development of the cloud systems. The type of further development is also dependent on the value of the associated vorticity. In this paper there is examined the relationship between cloud systems and vorticity and there are investigated thresholds of vorticity. Are these thresholds, which are different for the different cloud systems, exceeded, one can conclude — with a certain degree of probability — that cloud systems will increase (that means a further weather activity). Are the thresholds not exceeded one can expect a decrease of the cloud systems.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Es gibt typische Bewölkungskonfigurationen, die überwiegend durch Vorticity produziert und/oder aufrecht erhalten werden. Dazu gehören: Komma, enhanced Cumulibewölkung, Welle im Frontalband, Höhentief und Kern eines Tiefdruckwirbels. Aus Satellitenbildern kann beobachtet werden, daß sich die Bewölkungssysteme manchmal während ihrer Entwicklung verstärken, manchmal abschwächen. Die Art der Weiterentwicklung hängt unter anderem von der Stärke der zugeordneten Vorticity ab. In dieser Arbeit werden die Zusammenhänge zur Vorticity untersucht und Schwellwerte der Vorticity aufgestellt. Werden die Schwellwerte, die für die einzelnen Systeme verschieden sind, überschritten, so kann mit einer bestimmten Wahrscheinlichkeit auf Verstärkung (weitere Wetterwirksamkeit) geschlossen werden. Werden die Schwellen unterschritten, kann Abschwächung des Systems angenommen werden.
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  • 100
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 29 (1980), S. 119-130 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Eine Analyse einer großen Zahl von Groß-Regenfällen in Verbindung mit tropischen Depressionen, Zyklonen und schweren Unwettern hat ergeben, daß Groß-Regenfälle im September 1880 und im Juli 1927 über die Niederung des Landes die größten Flächenniederschlagshöhen in Indien brachten. Diese Rekord-Niederschlagshöhen wurden für verschiedene Flächengrößen und Andauern bestimmt und mit ähnlichen Rekord-Flächenniederschlagshöhen über dem tropischen Gebiet der USA verglichen. Diese Untersuchung hat gezeigt, daß für Andauern von zwei und drei Tagen die Rekord-Flächenniederschlagshöhen in Indien größer waren als in den USA. Für die Andauer von einem Tag waren bis zu einer Fläche von 5180 km2 (2000 Quadratmeilen) diese Flächenniederschlagshöhen in den USA größer, für größere Flächen waren sie aber in Indien entweder größer oder nahezu gleich wie in den USA.
    Notes: Summary On the basis of analysis of a large number of rainstorms associated with tropical disturbances such as depressions, cyclonic storms and severe storms, it has been found that September, 1880 and July, 1927 rainstorms over the plain areas of the country gave the highest areal rain depths in India. These rain depths have been worked out for different areas and durations and have been compared with the similar areal rain depths over the tropical region of USA. This study has shown that for durations of 2 and 3 days, Indian areal rain depths have been higher in magnitude when compared to USA rain depths. For one-day duration, upto 5180 sq.km (2000 sq.miles) area, USA areal rain depths are greater, while for larger areas Indian rain depths are either higher or almost equal with that of USA.
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