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  • American Meteorological Society
  • Canadian Science Publishing
  • 2005-2009  (11,733)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-06-08
    Description: The Aegean water masses and circulation structure are studied via two large-scale surveys performed during the late winters of 1988 and 1990 by the R/V Yakov Gakkel of the former Soviet Union. The analysis of these data sheds light on the mechanisms of water mass formation in the Aegean Sea that triggered the outflow of Cretan Deep Water (CDW) from the Cretan Sea into the abyssal basins of the eastern Mediterranean Sea (the so-called Eastern Mediterranean Transient). It is found that the central Aegean Basin is the site of the formation of Aegean Intermediate Water, which slides southward and, depending on their density, renews either the intermediate or the deep water of the Cretan Sea. During the winter of 1988, the Cretan Sea waters were renewed mainly at intermediate levels, while during the winter of 1990 it was mainly the volume of CDW that increased. This Aegean water mass redistribution and formation process in 1990 differed from that in 1988 in two major aspects: (i) during the winter of 1990 the position of the front between the Black Sea Water and the Levantine Surface Water was displaced farther north than during the winter of 1988 and (ii) heavier waters were formed in 1990 as a result of enhanced lateral advection of salty Levantine Surface Water that enriched the intermediate waters with salt. In 1990 the 29.2 isopycnal rose to the surface of the central basin and a large volume of CDW filled the Cretan Basin. It is found that, already in 1988, the 29.2 isopycnal surface, which we assume is the lowest density of the CDW, was shallower than the Kassos Strait sill and thus CDW egressed into the Eastern Mediterranean.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1841-1859
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Aegean Sea ; Water Masses ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.03. Interannual-to-decadal ocean variability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-06-01
    Description: Five non-eddy-resolving oceanic general circulation models driven by atmospheric fluxes derived from the NCEP reanalysis are used to investigate the link between the Gulf Stream (GS) variability, the atmospheric circulation, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Despite the limited model resolution, the temperature at the 200-m depth along the mean GS axis behaves similarly in most models to that observed, and it is also well correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indicating that a northward (southward) GS shift lags a positive (negative) NAO phase by 0–2 yr. The northward shift is accompanied by an increase in the GS transport, and conversely the southward shift with a decrease in the GS transport. Two dominant time scales appear in the response of the GS transport to the NAO forcing: a fast time scale (less than 1 month) for the barotropic component, and a slower one (about 2 yr) for the baroclinic component. In addition, the two components are weakly coupled. The GS response seems broadly consistent with a linear adjustment to the changes in the wind stress curl, and evidence for baroclinic Rossby wave propagation is found in the southern part of the subtropical gyre. However, the GS shifts are also affected by basin-scale changes in the oceanic conditions, and they are well correlated in most models with the changes in the AMOC. A larger AMOC is found when the GS is stronger and displaced northward, and a higher correlation is found when the observed changes of the GS position are used in the comparison. The relation between the GS and the AMOC could be explained by the inherent coupling between the thermohaline and the wind-driven circulation, or by the NAO variability driving them on similar time scales in the models.
    Description: This research was supported by the PREDICATE project of the European Community, and for M. Bentsen by the Research Council of Norway through RegClim, NOClim, and the Programme of Supercomputing.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2119–2135
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: ocean modelling ; gulf stream variability ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-11-19
    Description: A land surface model (LSM) has been included in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4 (ECHAM4) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The LSM is an early version of the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) and it replaces the simple land surface scheme previously included in ECHAM4. The purpose of this paper is to document how a more exhaustive consideration of the land surface–vegetation processes affects the simulated boreal summer surface climate. To investigate the impacts on the simulated climate, different sets of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations have been performed with ECHAM4 alone and with the AGCM coupled with ORCHIDEE. Furthermore, to assess the effects of the increase in horizontal resolution the coupling of ECHAM4 with the LSM has been implemented at different horizontal resolutions. The analysis reveals that the LSM has large effects on the simulated boreal summer surface climate of the atmospheric model. Considerable impacts are found in the surface energy balance due to changes in the surface latent heat fluxes over tropical and midlatitude areas covered with vegetation. Rainfall and atmospheric circulation are substantially affected by these changes. In particular, increased precipitation is found over evergreen and summergreen vegetated areas. Because of the socioeconomical relevance, particular attention has been devoted to the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region. The results of this study indicate that precipitation over the Indian subcontinent is better simulated with the coupled ECHAM4–ORCHIDEE model compared to the atmospheric model alone.
    Description: Published
    Description: 255–278
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Land Atmosphere interactions ; Global climate models ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper results from the application of an ocean data assimilation (ODA) system, combining a multivariate reduced-order optimal interpolator (OI) scheme with a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM), are described. The present ODA system, designed to assimilate in situ temperature and salinity observations, has been used to produce ocean reanalyses for the 1962–2001 period. The impact of assimilating observed hydrographic data on the ocean mean state and temporal variability is evaluated. A special focus of this work is on the ODA system skill in reproducing a realistic ocean salinity state. Results from a hierarchy of different salinity reanalyses, using varying combinations of assimilated data and background error covariance structures, are described. The impact of the space and time resolution of the background error covariance parameterization on salinity is addressed.
    Description: This work has been funded by the ENACT Project (Contract EVK2-CT2001-00117) for A. Bellucci and P. Di Pietro, and partially by the ENSEMBLES Project (Contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539) for A. Bellucci.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3785-3807
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: ocean modelling ; data assimilation ; reanalysis ; upper ocean variability ; temperature ; Salinity ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.04. Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The effect of horizontal resolution on tropical variability is investigated within the modified SINTEX model, SINTEX-F, developed jointly at INGV, IPSL and at the Frontier Research System. The horizontal resolutions T30 and T106 are investigated in terms of the coupling characteristics, frequency and variability of the tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions. It appears that the T106 resolution is generally beneficial even if it does not eliminate all the major systematic errors of the coupled model. There is an excessive shift west of the cold tongue and ENSO variability, and high resolution has also a somewhat negative impact to the variability in the East Indian Ocean. A dominant two-year peak for the NINO3 variabilty in the T30 model is moderated in the T106 as it shifts to longer time scale. At high resolution new processes come into play, as the coupling of tropical instability waves, the resolution of coastal flows at the Pacific Mexican coasts and improved coastal forcing along the coast of South America. The delayed oscillator seems the main mechanism that generates the interannual variability in both models, but the models realize it in different ways. In the T30 model it is confined close to the equator, involving relatively fast equatorial and near-equatorial modes, in the high resolution, it involves a wider latitudinal region and slower waves. It is speculated that the extent of the region that is involved in the interannual variability may be linked to the time scale of the variability itself.
    Description: This research was partially supported by the Italy–USA Cooperation Program of the Italian Ministry of Environment and by the EU projects ENSEMBLES and DYNAMITE.
    Description: Published
    Description: 730-750
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: coupled models ; tropical variability ; ENSO system ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is one of the main components of the Asian summer monsoon. It is well known that one of the starting mechanisms of a summer monsoon is the thermal contrast between land and ocean and that sea surface temperature (SST) and moisture are crucial factors for its evolution and intensity. The Indian Ocean, therefore, may play a very important role in the generation and evolution of the ISM itself. A coupled general circulation model, implemented with a high resolution atmospheric component, appears to be able to simulate the Indian summer monsoon in a realistic way. In particular, the features of the simulated ISM variability are similar to the observations. In this study, the relationships between ISM and Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are investigated, as well as the ability of the coupled model to capture those connections. The recent discovery of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM) may suggest new perspectives in the relationship between ISM and TIO SST. A new statistical technique, the Coupled Manifold, is used to investigate the TIO SST variability and its relation with the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). The analysis shows that the SST variability in the TIO contains a significant portion that is independent from the TPO variability. The same technique is used to estimate the amount of Indian rainfall variability that can be explained by the Tropical Indian Ocean SST. Indian Ocean SST anomalies are separated in a part remotely forced from the Tropical Pacific Ocean variability and a part independent from that. The relationships between the two SSTA components and the Indian monsoon variability are then investigated in detail.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3083-3105
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Indian Ocean ; monsoon ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: An assessment of the present European operational marine monitoring and forecasting systems shows how observations, atmospheric forcing fields and ocean models combine to make useful oceanographic products possible.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1081-1090
    Description: open
    Keywords: MARINE ENVIRONMENT ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanography
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere–ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1195-1203
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Decadal Climate ; North Atlantic ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.02. Hydrology::03.02.05. Models and Forecasts ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.03. Interannual-to-decadal ocean variability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, American Meteorological Society, 25(2), pp. 149-166, ISSN: 0739-0572
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: The accuracy of all types of Vaisala radiosondes and two types of Snow White chilled-mirror hygrosondes was assessed in an intensive in situ comparison with reference hygrometers. Fourteen nighttime reference comparisons were performed to determine a working reference for the radiosonde comparisons. These showed that the night version of the Snow White agreed best with the references [i.e., the NOAA frost-point hygrometer (FPH) and University of Colorado cryogenic frost-point hygrometer (CFH)], but that the daytime version had severe problems with contamination in the humid upper troposphere. Since the RS92 performance was superior to the other radiosondes and to the day version of the Snow White, it was selected to be the working reference. According to the reference comparison, the RS92 has no bias in the mid- and lower troposphere, with deviations 〈±5% in relative humidity (RH). In the upper troposphere, the RS92 has a 5% RH wet bias, which is partly due to the RS92 time lag error and the termination of the heating cycle. It was shown that the time lag effects relating to Vaisala radiosondes can be corrected. Because these were nighttime comparisons, they can be considered to be free from solar radiation effects. Neither the radiosondes nor the Snow White succeeded in reproducing reference class hygrometer profiles in the stratosphere. According to the 29 radiosonde intercomparisons, the RS92 and the modified RS90 (FN) had the best mutual agreement and no bias. The disagreement is largest (〈±10% RH) at low temperatures (T ≪ −30°C), where the FN underestimated (overestimated) in high (low) ambient RH. In comparison with the RS92, the RS90 had a semilinearly increasing wet bias with decreasing temperature, where the bias was 10% RH at −60°C. The RS80-A suffers from a large temperature-dependent dry bias in high RH conditions, being over 30% RH at −60°C and 5% RH near 0°C. The RS80-A dry bias can be almost totally removed with the correction algorithm by Leiterer et al., which was chosen as the best available. The other approach tested tends to overcorrect in high RH conditions when T 〈 −50°C. For T 〉 −30°C it is ineffective and does not correct the RS80-A dry bias in high ambient RH.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 10
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2021-05-19
    Description: In this study we show a teleconnection pattern relating Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the western Indian Ocean over two seasons (Sept-Oct-Nov and Dec-Jan-Feb) at zero lag from observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations. This teleconnection pattern suggests that a positive SSTA in Sept-Oct-Nov (SON) and Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) seasons over the western Indian Ocean increases the contemporaneous positive OLR anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean. This teleconnection pattern is also simulated by the Center for Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies (COLA) AGCM forced with observed SST’s. From the experimental COLA AGCM runs (wherein the Pacific Ocean SST variability is suppressed except for the climatological annual cycle) it is diagnosed that the interannual variability of OLR over the western Pacific Ocean persists because of this teleconnection. In relation to this teleconnection pattern it is shown that there is a significant linear response of the SON and DJF equatorial zonal wind anomaly over the Pacific Ocean to contemporaneous SSTA over the western Indian Ocean which is comparable to that of the eastern and western Pacific Oceans. The experimental AGCM runs clearly show that this response of the equatorial zonal wind anomaly to the western Indian Ocean forcing shifts westward towards the Indian Ocean in the absence of Pacific SST variability.
    Description: Published
    Keywords: Sea surface temperature ; Atmospheric conditions ; Teleconnections
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Journal Contribution , Refereed , Article
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  • 11
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2021-05-19
    Description: Skill in ensemble-mean dynamical seasonal climate hindcasts with a coupled land-atmosphere model and specified observed sea surface temperature is compared to that for long multi-decade integrations of the same model where the initial conditions are far removed from the seasons of validation. The evaluations are performed for surface temperature and compared among all seasons. Skill is found to be higher in the seasonal simulations than the multi-decadal integrations except during boreal winter. The higher skill is prominent even beyond the first month when the direct influence of the atmospheric initial state elevates model skill. Skill is generally found to be lowest during the winter season for the dynamical seasonal forecasts, equal to that of the long integrations, which show some of the highest skill during winter. The reason for the differences in skill during the non-winter months is attributed to the severe climate drift in the long simulations, manifest through errors in downward fluxes of water and energy over land and evident in soil wetness. The drift presses the land surface to extreme dry or wet states over much of the globe, into a range where there is little sensitivity of evaporation to fluctuations in soil moisture. Thus, the land-atmosphere feedback is suppressed, which appears to lessen the model’s ability to respond correctly over land to remote ocean temperature anomalies.
    Description: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies
    Description: Published
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean system
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Journal Contribution , Refereed , Article
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2021-05-19
    Description: In this paper, the circulations driven by deep heating and shallow heating are investigated through analytically solving a set of linear equations and examining circulations simulated by a dry primitive equation model. Special emphasis is placed on the low-level mass (moisture) convergence associated with the forced circulation and the maintenance of the shallow and deep heat sources. It is found that the forced circulation driven by shallow heating is more likely to be trapped horizontally near the heating area but relatively extended in the vertical. As a consequence, diabatic heating can not balance adiabatic cooling due to upward motion. At the levels slightly above the top of the heating, a negative vertical gradient of temperature perturbation appears. For the atmosphere driven by deep heating, however, the temperature perturbation cannot accumulate because the heating signals propagate away very fast, allowing an approximate equilibrium between the convective diabatic heating and adiabatic cooling due to upward motion. The converged moisture associated with circulation driven by shallow heating exceeds the amount needed to maintain the heat source. However, the circulation driven by deep heating does not feed back effectively to the moisture convergence, and thus can not be self-sustaining.
    Description: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies - Calverton
    Description: Published
    Keywords: Atmospheric circulation
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Journal Contribution , Refereed , Article
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 21 (2004): 1448–1461, doi:10.1175/1520-0426(2004)021〈1448:AOAPAD〉2.0.CO;2.
    Description: The accuracy of velocities measured by a pulse-coherent acoustic Doppler profiler (PCADP) in the bottom boundary layer of a wave-dominated inner-shelf environment is evaluated. The downward-looking PCADP measured velocities in eight 10-cm cells at 1 Hz. Velocities measured by the PCADP are compared to those measured by an acoustic Doppler velocimeter for wave orbital velocities up to 95 cm s−1 and currents up to 40 cm s−1. An algorithm for correcting ambiguity errors using the resolution velocities was developed. Instrument bias, measured as the average error in burst mean speed, is −0.4 cm s−1 (standard deviation = 0.8). The accuracy (root-mean-square error) of instantaneous velocities has a mean of 8.6 cm s−1 (standard deviation = 6.5) for eastward velocities (the predominant direction of waves), 6.5 cm s−1 (standard deviation = 4.4) for northward velocities, and 2.4 cm s−1 (standard deviation = 1.6) for vertical velocities. Both burst mean and root-mean-square errors are greater for bursts with ub ≥ 50 cm s−1. Profiles of burst mean speeds from the bottom five cells were fit to logarithmic curves: 92% of bursts with mean speed ≥ 5 cm s−1 have a correlation coefficient R2 〉 0.96. In cells close to the transducer, instantaneous velocities are noisy, burst mean velocities are biased low, and bottom orbital velocities are biased high. With adequate blanking distances for both the profile and resolution velocities, the PCADP provides sufficient accuracy to measure velocities in the bottom boundary layer under moderately energetic inner-shelf conditions.
    Description: This work was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Southwest Washington Coastal Erosion Study
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: Advances in computer power, new forecasting challenges, and new diagnostic techniques have brought about changes in the way atmospheric development and vertical motion are diagnosed in an operational setting. Many of these changes, such as improved model skill, model resolution, and ensemble forecasting, have arguably been detrimental to the ability of forecasters to understand and respond to the evolving atmosphere. The use of nondivergent wind in place of geostrophic wind would be a step in the right direction, but the advantages of potential vorticity suggest that its widespread adoption as a diagnostic tool on the west side of the Atlantic is overdue. Ertel potential vorticity (PV), when scaled to be compatible with pseudopotential vorticity, is generally similar to pseudopotential vorticity, so forecasters accustomed to quasigeostrophic reasoning through the height tendency equation can transfer some of their intuition into the Ertel-PV framework. Indeed, many of the differences between pseudopotential vorticity and Ertel potential vorticity are consequences of the choice of definition of quasigeostrophic PV and are not fundamental to the quasigeostrophic system. Thus, at its core, PV thinking is consistent with commonly used quasigeostrophic diagnostic techniques.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3646
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: Synoptic and mesoscale meteorology underwent a revolution in the 1940s and 1950s with the widespread deployment of novel weather observations, such as the radiosonde network and the advent of weather radar. These observations provoked a rapid increase in our understanding of the structure and dynamics of the atmosphere by pioneering analysts such as Fred Sanders. The authors argue that we may be approaching an analogous revolution in our ability to study the structure and dynamics of atmospheric phenomena with the advent of probabilistic objective analyses. These probabilistic analyses provide not only best estimates of the state of the atmosphere (e.g., the expected value) and the uncertainty about this state (e.g., the variance), but also the relationships between all locations and all variables at that instant in time. Up until now, these relationships have been determined by sampling in time by, for example, case studies, composites, and time-series analysis. Here the authors propose a new approach, ensemble synoptic analysis, which exploits the information contained in probabilistic samples of analyses at one or more instants in time. One source of probabilistic analyses is ensemble-based state-estimation methods, such as ensemble-based Kalman filters. Analyses from such a filter may be used to study atmospheric phenomena and the relationships between fields and locations at one or more instants in time. After a brief overview of a research-based ensemble Kalman filter, illustrative examples of ensemble synoptic analysis are given for an extratropical cyclone, including relationships between the cyclone minimum sea level pressure and other synoptic features, statistically determined operators for potential-vorticity inversion, and ensemble-based sensitivity analysis.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3646
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: The pioneering large-scale studies of cyclone frequency, location, and intensity conducted by Fred Sanders prompt similar questions about lesser-studied anticyclone development. The results of a climatology of closed anticyclones (CAs) at 200, 500, and 850 hPa, with an emphasis on the subtropics and midlatitudes, is presented to assess the seasonally varying distribution and hemispheric differences of these features. To construct the CA climatology, a counting program was applied to twice-daily 2.5° NCEP–NCAR reanalysis 200-, 500-, and 850-hPa geopotential height fields for the period 1950–2003. Stationary CAs, defined as those CAs that were located at a particular location for consecutive time periods, were counted only once. The climatology results show that 200-hPa CAs occur preferentially during summer over subtropical continental regions, while 500-hPa CAs occur preferentially over subtropical oceans in all seasons and over subtropical continents in summer. Conversely, 850-hPa CAs occur preferentially over oceanic regions beneath upper-level midocean troughs, and are most prominent in the Northern Hemisphere, and over midlatitude continents in winter. Three case studies of objectively identified CAs that produced heal waves over the United States, Europe, and Australia in 1995, 2003, and 2004, respectively, are presented to supplement the climatological results. The case studies, examining the subset of CAs than can produce heat waves, illustrate how climatologically hot continental tropical air masses produced over arid and semiarid regions of the subtropics and lower midlatitudes can become abnormally hot in conjunction with dynamically driven upper-level ridge amplification. Subsequently, these abnormally hot air masses are advected downstream away from their source regions in conjunction with transient disturbances embedded in anomalously strong westerly jets.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3646
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: Oklahoma Mesonetwork data are used to illustrate important atmospheric features that are not well shown by the usual synoptic data. For example, some shifts of wind from south to north that are shown as cold fronts on synoptic charts are not cold fronts by any plausible definition. As previously discussed by Fred Sanders and others, such errors in analysis can be reduced by knowledge of the wide variety of weather phenomena that actually exists, and by more attention to temperatures at the earth's surface as revealed by conventional synoptic data. Mesoscale data for four cases reinforce previous discussions of the ephemeral nature of fronts and deficiencies in the usual analyses of cold fronts. One type of misanalyzed case involves post-cold-frontal boundary layer air that is warmer than the prefrontal air. A second type is usually nocturnal, with a rise of local temperature during disruption of an inversion and a wind shift with later cooling that accompanies advection of a climatological gradient of temperature.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3646
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: The advent of the polar front theory of cyclones in Norway early in the last century held that the development of fronts and air masses is central to understanding midlatitude weather phenomena. While work on fronts continues to this day, the concept of air masses has been largely forgotten, superseded by the idea of a continuum. The Norwegians placed equal emphasis on the thermodynamics of airmass formation and on the dynamical processes that moved air masses around; today, almost all the emphasis is on dynamics, with little published literature on diabatic processes acting on a large scale. In this essay, the author argues that a lack of understanding of large-scale diabatic processes leads to an incomplete picture of the atmosphere and contributes to systematic errors in medium- and long-range weather forecasts. At the same time, modern concepts centered around potential vorticity conservation and inversion lead one to a redefinition of the term "air mass" that may have some utility in conceptualizing atmospheric physics and in weather forecasting.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3646
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: Historically, the atmospheric sciences have tended to treat problems of weather and climate separately. The real physical system, however, is a continuum, with short-term (minutes to days) “weather” fluctuations influencing climate variations and change, and, conversely, more slowly varying aspects of the system (typical time scales of a season or longer) affecting the weather that is experienced. While this past approach has served important purposes, it is becoming increasingly apparent that in order to make progress in addressing many socially important problems, an improved understanding of the connections between weather and climate is required. This overview summarizes the progress over the last few decades in the understanding of the phenomena and mechanisms linking weather and climate variations. The principal emphasis is on developments in understanding key phenomena and processes that bridge the time scales between synoptic-scale weather variability (periods of approximately 1 week) and climate variations of a season or longer. Advances in the ability to identify synoptic features, improve physical understanding, and develop forecast skill within this time range are reviewed, focusing on a subset of major, recurrent phenomena that impact extratropical wintertime weather and climate variations over the Pacific–North American region. While progress has been impressive, research has also illuminated areas where future gains are possible. This article concludes with suggestions on near-term directions for advancing the understanding and capabilities to predict the connections between weather and climate variations.
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: Fred Sanders' career extended over 55 yr, touching upon many of the revolutionary transformations in the field of meteorology during that period. In this paper, his contributions to the transformation of synoptic meteorology, his research into the nature of explosive cyclogenesis, and related advances in the ability to predict these storms are reviewed. In addition to this review, the current status of forecasting oceanic cyclones 4.5 days in advance is presented, illustrating the progress that has been made and the challenges that persist, especially for forecasting those extreme extratropical cyclones that are marked by surface wind speeds exceeding hurricane force. Last, Fred Sanders' participation in a forecast for the historic 1947 snowstorm (that produced snowfall amounts in the New York City area that set records at that time) is reviewed along with an attempt to use today's operational global model to simulate this storm using data that were available at the time. The study reveals the predictive limitations involved with this case based on the scarcity of upper-air data in 1947, while confirming Fred Sanders' forecasting skills when dealing with these types of major storm events, even as a young aviation forecaster at New York's LaGuardia Airport.
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: A case study of a double dryline on 22 May 2002 is presented. Mobile, 3-mm-wavelength Doppler radars from the University of Massachusetts and the University of Wyoming (Wyoming cloud radar) were used to collect very fine resolution vertical-velocity data in the vicinity of each of the moisture gradients associated with the drylines. Very narrow (50–100 m wide) channels of strong upward vertical velocity (up to 8 m s–1) were measured in the convergence zone of the easternmost dryline, larger in magnitude than reported with previous drylines. Distinct areas of descending motion were evident to the east and west of both drylines. Radar data are interpreted in the context of other observational platforms available during the International H2O Project (IHOP-2002). a variational ground-based mobile radar data processing technique was developed and applied to pseudo-dual-Doppler data collected during a rolling range-height indicator deployment. It was found that there was a secondary (vertical) circulation normal to the easternmost moisture gradient; the circulation comprised an easterly component near-surface flow to the east, a strong upward vertical component in the convergence zone, a westerly return, flow above the convective boundary layer, and numerous regions of descending motion, the most prominent approximately 3–5 km to the east of the surface convergence zone.
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: Fred Sanders' teaching and research contributions in the area of quasigeostrophic theory are highlighted in this paper. The application of these contributions is made to the topic of extreme cold-season precipitation events in the Saint Lawrence valley in the northeastern United States and southern Quebec. This research focuses on analyses of Saint Lawrence valley heavy precipitation events. Synoptic- and planetary-scale circulation anomaly precursors are typically identified several days prior to these events. These precursors include transient upper-level troughs, strong moisture transports into the region, and anomalously large precipitable water amounts. The physical insight of Fred Sanders' work is used in the analysis of these composite results. Further details of this insight are provided in analyses of one case of heavy precipitation.
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: Sanders designed a barotropic tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction model for the North Atlantic TC basin that became known as the Sanders barotropic (SANBAR) model. It predicted the streamfunction of the deeplayer mean winds (tropical circulation vertically averaged from 1000 to 100 hPa) that represents the vertically averaged tropical circulations. Originally, the wind input for the operational objective analysis (OA) consisted of winds measured by radiosondes and 44 bogus winds provided by analysis at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which corresponded to the vertically averaged flow over sparsely observed tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude oceanic regions. The model covered a fixed regional area and had a grid size of ~ 154 km. It estimated the initial storm motion solely on the basis of the large-scale flow from the OA, not taking into account the observed storm motion. During 1970, the SANBAR model became the first dynamical TC track model to be run operationally at NHC. Track forecasts of SANBAR were verified from the 1971 TC season when track model verifications began at NHC until its retirement after the 1989 Atlantic TC season. The average annual SANBAR forecast track errors were verified relative to Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER), the standard no-skill track forecast. Comparison with CLIPER determines the skill of track forecast methods. Verifications are presented for two different versions of the SANBAR model system used operationally during 1973–84 and 1985–89. In homogeneous comparisons (i.e., includes only forecasts for the same initial times) for the former period, SANBAR's track forecasts were slightly better than CLIPER at 24–48-h forecast intervals; however, from 1985 to 1989 the average SANBAR track forecast errors from 24–72 h were ~10% more skillful than homogeneous CLIPER track forecasts.
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: In the last decade, Fred Sanders was often critical of current surface analysis techniques. This led to his promoting the use of surface potential temperatures to distinguish between fronts, baroclinic troughs, and non-frontal baroclinic zones, and to the development of a climatology of surface baroclinic zones. In this paper, criticisms of current surface analysis techniques and the usefulness of surface potential temperature analyses are discussed. Case examples are used to compare potential temperature analyses and current National Centers for Environmental Prediction analyses. The 1-yr climatology of Sanders and Hoffman is reconstructed using a composite technique. Annual and seasonal mean potential temperature analyses over the continental United States, southern Canada, northern Mexico, and adjacent coastal waters are presented. In addition, gridpoint frequencies of moderate and strong potential temperature gradients are calculated. The results of the mean potential temperature analyses show that moderate and strong surface baroclinic zones are favored along the coastlines and the slopes of the North American cordillera. Additional subsynoptic details, not found in Sanders and Hoffman, are identified. The availability of the composite results allows for the calculation of potential temperature gradient anomalies. It is shown that these anomalies can be used to identify significant frontal baroclinic zones that are associated with weak potential temperature gradients. Together the results and reviews in this paper show that surface potential temperature analyses are a valuable forecasting and analysis tool allowing analysts to distinguish and identify fronts, baroclinic troughs, and nonfrontal baroclinic zones.
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: The nature of the different types of surface boundaries that appear in the southern plains of the United States during the convectively active season is reviewed. The following boundaries are discussed: fronts, the dryline, troughs, and outflow boundaries, The boundaries are related to their environment and to local topography. The role these boundaries might play in the initiation of convective storms is emphasized. The various types of boundary-related vertical circulations and their dynamics are discussed. In particular, quasigeostrophic and semigeostrophic dynamics, and the dynamics of solenoidal circulations, density currents, boundary layers, and gravity waves are considered. Miscellaneous topics pertinent to convective storms and their relationship to surface boundaries such as along-the-boundary variability, boundary collisions, and the role of vertical shear are also discussed. Although some cases of storm initiation along surface boundaries have been well documented using research datasets collected during comprehensive field experiments, much of what we know is based only on empirical forecasting and nowcasting experience. It is suggested that many problems relating to convective-storm formation need to be explored in detail using real datasets with new observing systems and techniques, in conjunction with numerical simulation studies, and through climatological studies.
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 1980-05-01
    Description: No Abstract available.
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: This paper begins with a review of basic surface frontogenesis concepts with an emphasis on fronts located over sloping terrain adjacent to mountain barriers and fronts located in large-scale baroclinic zones close to coastlines. The impact of cold-air damming and differential diabatic heating and cooling on frontogenesis is considered through two detailed case studies of intense surface fronts. The first case, from 17 to 18 April 2002, featured the westward passage of a cold (side-door) front across coastal eastern New England in which 15°–20°C temperature decreases were observed in less than one hour. The second case, from 28 February to 4 March 1972, featured a long-lived front that affected most of the United States from the Rockies to the Atlantic coast and was noteworthy for a 50°C temperature contrast between Kansas and southern Manitoba, Canada. In the April 2002 case most of New England was initially covered by an unusually warm, dry air mass. Dynamical anticyclogenesis over eastern Canada set the stage for a favorable pressure gradient to allow chilly marine air to approach coastal New England from the east. Diabatic cooling over the chilly (5°–8°C) waters of the Gulf of Maine allowed surface pressures to remain relatively high offshore while diabatic heating over the land (31°–33°C temperatures) enabled surface pressures to fall relative to over the ocean. The resulting higher pressures offshore resulted in an onshore cold push. Frontal intensity was likely enhanced prior to leaf out and grass green-up as virtually all of the available insolation went into sensible heating. The large-scale environment in the February–March 1972 case favored the accumulation of bitterly cold arctic air in Canada. Frontal formation occurred over northern Montana and North Dakota as the arctic air moved slowly southward in conjunction with surface pressure rises east of the Canadian Rockies. The arctic air accelerated southward subsequent to lee cyclogenesis–induced pressure falls ahead of an upstream trough that crossed the Rockies. The southward acceleration of the arctic air was also facilitated by dynamic anticyclogenesis in southern Canada beneath a poleward jet-entrance region. Frontal intensity varied diurnally in response to differential diabatic heating. Three types of cyclogenesis events were observed over the lifetime of the event: 1) low-amplitude frontal waves with no upper-level support, 2) low-amplitude frontal waves that formed in a jet-entrance region, and 3) cyclones that formed ahead of advancing upper-level troughs. All cyclones were either nondeveloping or weak developments despite extreme baroclinicity, likely the result of large atmospheric static stability in the arctic frontal zone and unfavorable alongfront stretching deformation. Significant frontal–mountain interactions were observed over the Rockies and the Appalachians.
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: Over 50 yr have passed since the publication of Sanders' 1955 study, the first quantitative study of the structure and dynamics of a surface cold front. The purpose of this chapter is to reexamine some of the results of that study in light of modern methods of numerical weather prediction and diagnosis. A simulation with a resolution as high as 6-km horizontal grid spacing was performed with the fifth-generation-Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), given initial and lateral boundary conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Precipitation-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis project data from 17 to 18 April 1953. The MM5 produced a reasonable simulation af the front, albeit its strength was not as intense and its movement was not as fast as was analyzed by Sanders. The vertical structure of the front differed from that analyzed by Sanders in several significant ways. First, the strongest horizontal temperature gradient associated with the cold front in the simulation occurred above a surface-based inversion, not at the earth's surface. Second, the ascent plume at the leading edge of the front was deeper and more intense than that analyzed by Sanders. The reason was an elevated mixed layer that had moved over the surface cold front in the simulation, allowing a much deeper vertical circulation than was analyzed by Sanders. This structure is similar to that of Australian cold fronts with their deep, well-mixed, prefrontal surface layer. These two differences between the model simulation and the analysis by Sanders may be because upper-air data from Fort Worth, Texas, was unavailable to Sanders. Third, the elevated mixed layer also meant that isentropes along the leading edge of the front extended vertically. Fourth, the field of frontogenesis of the horizontal temperature gradient calculated from the three-dimensional wind differed in that the magnitude of the maximum of the deformation term was larger than the magnitude of the maximum of the tilting term in the simulation, in contrast to Sanders' analysis and other previously published cases. These two discrepancies may be attributable to the limited horizontal resolution of the data that Sanders used in constructing his cross section. Last, a deficiency of the model simulation was that the postfrontal surface superadiabatic layer in the model did not match the observed well-mixed boundary layer. This result raises the question of the origin of the well-mixed postfrontal boundary layer behind cold fronts. To address this question, an additional model simulation without surface fluxes was performed, producing a well-mixed, not superadiabatic, layer. This result suggests that surface fluxes were not necessary for the development of the well-mixed layer, in agreement with previous research. Analysis of this event also amplifies two research themes that Sanders returned to later in his career, First, a prefrontal wind shift occurred in both the observations and model simulation at stations in western Oklahoma. This prefrontal wind shift was caused by a lee cyclone departing the leeward slopes of the Rockies slightly equatorward of the cold front, rather than along the front as was the case farther eastward. Sanders' later research showed how the occurrence of these prefrontal wind shifts leads to the weakening of fronts. Second, this study shows the advantage of using surface potential temperature, rather than surface temperature, for determining the locations of the surface fronts on sloping terrain.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: Today, even with state-of-the-art observational, data assimilation, and modeling systems run routinely on supercomputers, there are often surprises in the prediction of snowstorms, especially the “big ones,” affecting coastal regions of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. Little did the author know that lessons from Fred Sanders' synoptic meteorology class at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1967) would later (late 1980s) inspire him to pursue practical issues of predictability in the context of the development of ensemble prediction systems, strategies, and applications for providing information on the inevitable case-dependent uncertainties in forecasts. This paper is a brief qualitative and somewhat colloquial overview, based upon this author's personal involvement and experiences, intended to highlight some basic aspects of the source and nature of uncertainties in forecasts and to illustrate the sort of value added information ensembles can provide in dealing with uncertainties in predictions of East Coast snowstorms.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: One characteristic of Fred Sanders' research is his ability to take a topic that is believed to be well understood by the research community and show that interesting research problems still exist. Among Sanders' considerable contributions to synoptic meteorology, those concerned with surface cold fronts have been especially influential. After a brief historical review of fronts and frontal analysis, this chapter presents three stages in Sanders' career when he performed research on the structure, dynamics, and analysis of surface cold fronts. First, his 1955 paper, "An investigation of the structure and dynamics of an intense surface frontal zone," was the first study to discuss quantitatively the dynamics of a surface cold front. In the 1960s, Sanders and his students further examined the structure of cold fronts, resulting in the unpublished 1967 report to the National Science Foundation, "Frontal structure and the dynamics of frontogenesis." For a third lime in his career, Sanders published several papers (1995–2005) revisiting the structure and dynamics of cold fronts. His 1967 and 1995–2005 work raises the question of the origin and dynamics of the surface pressure trough and/or wind shift that sometimes precedes the temperature gradient (hereafter called a prefrontal trough or prefrontal wind shift, respectively). Sanders showed that the relationship between this prefrontal feature and the temperature gradient is fundamental to the strength of the front. When the wind shift is coincident with the temperature gradient, frontogenesis (strengthening of the front) results; when the wind shift lies ahead of the temperature gradient, frontolysis (weakening of the front) results. a number of proposed mechanisms for the formation of prefrontal troughs and prefrontal wind shifts exist. Consequently, much research remains to be performed on these topics.
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2006-06-01
    Description: Single-tree selection has been employed widely in northern Japanese mixed forests, but management-induced changes in forests are not well understood. This study examined demographic parameters of major tree species during a 20-year study of a 68 ha stand in which single-tree selection has been conducted since 1971. Results showed that growth and survival of conifers (mostly Abies sachalinensis (Fr. Schm.) Masters) was the most strongly positively affected by the treatment. Nevertheless, recruitment of conifers was not sufficiently improved, suggesting their decreased dominance over the longer term. Instead, shade-intolerant broad-leaved species (mainly Betula ermanii Cham.) will gradually increase because of their higher recruitment rates after the treatment. Shade-tolerant broad-leaved species (mainly Acer mono Maxim. and Tilia japonica (Miq.) Simonkai) appeared to experience the most distinct negative effects, especially on survival. These trends differed markedly from those reported in previous papers concerning partial harvesting systems, which predicted an increase in dominance of shade-tolerant species. The results shown here should be generalized carefully because we have investigated only one stand without repetition of the control area. Nevertheless, trends described in this large-scale, long-term study could provide a basis for simulating stand dynamics. We discussed possible reasons for the observed patterns and provided implications for sustainable management in the region.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2007-03-01
    Description: We investigated yellow birch ( Betula alleghaniensis Britt.) growth patterns and disturbance frequency before and after the advent of selection harvesting at the Ford Forestry Center in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA, through the use of tree-ring analysis. Based on the boundary-line release detection procedure, 88% of the trees in our sample (n = 67) displayed evidence of at least one moderate or major release. Prior to active forest management, releases were infrequent, and trees that originated during that period had growth histories consistent with establishment after large-scale disturbances (i.e., large canopy gaps, 〉200 m2). Conversely, tree cohorts that recruited to the canopy more recently displayed a growth pattern suggestive of periodic small gap expansion. Given the declining representation of yellow birch in these forests, the latter strategy, although probably sufficient to prevent extirpation, is unlikely to ensure a sustainable and harvestable population of this and other midtolerants in managed uneven-aged forests. Our results highlight the importance of considering the cumulative influence of infrequent disturbances and chance events on the maintenance of tree species diversity.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2005-02-01
    Description: This study was aimed at determining the composition of Ips typographus L. (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) associated fungal flora in France, its virulence, and its ability to stimulate host defence reactions. The relationship between these parameters and the beetle population levels was also considered. The study was conducted in 2001, 2002, and 2003 in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands, with different bark beetle damage levels. In each stand, the frequency of association between fungi and I. typographus was determined. The virulence of the most frequent species was assessed through mass inoculations on living spruce trees. The ability to stimulate the host defence reactions was estimated with low-density inoculations. The most frequent species, Ophiostoma bicolor Davids. & Wells, Ophiostoma piceaperdum Rumbold, and Ophiostoma tetropii Mathiesen, were all pathogenic. Ophiostoma piceaperdum also induced intense defence reaction zones, suggesting that it could play a role in I. typographus population establishment on living trees. However, significant correlations between fungal frequencies and damage of the current year were observed only with O. tetropii or O. bicolor, and no relationships between damage of the previous year and fungal frequencies were found. The effects of some fungal species on beetle population dynamics was suggested, but selection of species during epidemic condition was not confirmed.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2008-04-01
    Description: Locating fuel treatments with scarce resources is an important consideration in landscape-level fuel management. This paper developed a mixed integer programming (MIP) model for allocating fuel treatments across a landscape based on spatial information for fire ignition risk, conditional probabilities of fire spread between raster cells, fire intensity levels, and values at risk. The fire ignition risk in each raster cell is defined as the probability of fire burning a cell because of the ignition within that cell. The conditional probability that fire would spread between adjacent cells A and B is defined as the probability of a fire spreading into cell B after burning in cell A. This model locates fuel treatments by using a fire risk distribution map calculated through fire simulation models. Fire risk is assumed to accumulate across a landscape following major wind directions and the MIP model locates fuel treatments to efficiently break this pattern of fire risk accumulation. Fuel treatment resources are scarce and such scarcity is introduced through a budget constraint. A test case is designed based on a portion of the landscape (15 552 ha) within the Southern Sierra fire planning unit to demonstrate the data requirements, solution process, and model results. Fuel treatment schedules, based upon single and dual wind directions, are compared.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2006-07-01
    Description: Modelling growth of trees or stands when age is not available is often necessary. This is the case in national forest inventories or when age is not a main determinant of growth (e.g., trees growing in uneven-aged stands). Even if age is not known, functions used to model growth should follow the required pattern, with a maximum and a slow decline after the maximum is attained. There are some empirical functions with these properties; however, direct modelling with difference equations derived from the so-called theoretical growth functions has not been used for this purpose, as they are age dependent. This paper presents a methodology to formulate growth functions as age-independent difference equations. These can be used when age is not available or is not relevant. The proposed equations have the advantage of allowing the direct modelling of yield instead of growth. If the parameters are expressed as a function of site variables, the equations are invariant for projection length and therefore can be used when data is not equally spaced in time, as is the case of most data sets. The methodology is applied to the Lundqvist and Richards growth functions, the most commonly used in growth and yield modelling. The use of the age-independent growth functions is illustrated by using two case studies in Portugal: dominant height growth of eucalyptus (Eucalyptus globulus Labill.) plantations and individual tree growth in diameter at breast height in sparse cork oak (Quercus suber L.) stands.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2009-02-01
    Description: Climate models project that by 2100, the northeastern US and eastern Canada will warm by approximately 3–5 °C, with increased winter precipitation. These changes will affect trees directly and also indirectly through effects on “nuisance” species, such as insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plants. We review how basic ecological principles can be used to predict nuisance species’ responses to climate change and how this is likely to impact northeastern forests. We then examine in detail the potential responses of two pest species (hemlock woolly adelgid ( Adelges tsugae Annand) and forest tent caterpillar ( Malacosoma disstria Hubner)), two pathogens (armillaria root rot ( Armillaria spp.) and beech bark disease ( Cryptococcus fagisuga Lind. + Neonectria spp.)), and two invasive plant species (glossy buckthorn ( Frangula alnus Mill.) and oriental bittersweet ( Celastrus orbiculatus Thunb.)). Several of these species are likely to have stronger or more widespread effects on forest composition and structure under the projected climate. However, uncertainty pervades our predictions because we lack adequate data on the species and because some species depend on complex, incompletely understood, unstable relationships. While targeted research will increase our confidence in making predictions, some uncertainty will always persist. Therefore, we encourage policies that allow for this uncertainty by considering a wide range of possible scenarios.
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2009-02-01
    Description: We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2009-02-01
    Description: In many forest types, over half of the total stand biomass is located in the forest floor. Carbon emissions during wildland fire are directly related to biomass (fuel) consumption. Consumption of forest floor fuel varies widely and is the greatest source of uncertainty in estimating total carbon emissions during fire. We used experimental burn data (59 burns, four fuel types) and wildfire data (69 plots, four fuel types) to develop a model of forest floor fuel consumption and carbon emissions in nonpeatland standing-timber fuel types. The experimental burn and wildfire data sets were analyzed separately and combined by regression to provide fuel consumption models. Model variables differed among fuel types, but preburn fuel load, duff depth, bulk density, and Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System components at the time of burning were common significant variables. The regression R2 values ranged from 0.206 to 0.980 (P 〈 0.001). The log–log model for all data combined explained 79.5% of the regression variation and is now being used to estimate annual carbon emissions from wildland fire. Forest floor carbon content at the wildfires ranged from 40.9% to 53.9%, and the carbon emission rate ranged from 0.29 to 2.43 kg·m–2.
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2009-02-01
    Description: Increasing temperatures, precipitation extremes, and other anthropogenic influences (pollutant deposition, increasing carbon dioxide) will influence future forest composition and productivity in the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. This synthesis of empirical and modeling studies includes tree DNA evidence suggesting tree migrations since the last glaciation were much slower, at least under postglacial conditions, than is needed to keep up with current and future climate warming. Exceedances of US and Canadian ozone air quality standards are apparent and offset CO2-induced gains in biomass and predispose trees to other stresses. The deposition of nitrogen and sulfate in the northeastern United States changes forest nutrient availability and retention, reduces reproductive success and frost hardiness, causes physical damage to leaf surfaces, and alters performance of forest pests and diseases. These interacting stresses may increase future tree declines and ecosystem disturbances during transition to a warmer climate. Recent modeling work predicts warmer climates will increase suitable habitat (not necessarily actual distribution) for most tree species in the northeastern United States. Species whose habitat is declining in the northeastern United States currently occur in Canadian forests and may expand northward with warming. Paleoecological studies suggest local factors may interact with, even overwhelm, climatic effects, causing lags and thresholds leading to sudden large shifts in vegetation.
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 1983-12-01
    Description: The pine-wood nematode, Bursaphelenchusxylophilus (Steiner and Buhrer), was most commonly extracted from Cerambycidae emerging from nematode-infested pines in Minnesota and Wisconsin during 1981 and 1982. The greatest number of nematodes were extracted from Monochamusscutellatus (Say) and Monochamuscarolinensis (Olivier). Low numbers of B. xylophilus were found in some buprestids but no nematodes were found in the curulionid and scolytid beetles examined. Two species of Cerambycidae, Monochamusmannorator (Kiby.) and M. scutellatus were associated with B. xylophilus from balsam fir in Minnesota. Bursaphelenchusxylophilus from insects associated with balsam fir were morphologically different from insects associated with pine. Dauer larvae of B. xylophilus were concentrated in the thoracic segments of M. scutellatus and Monochamusmutator (Lec.) examined. Bursaphelenchusxylophilus was transmitted to twigs during maturation feeding and to logs during oviposition by M. carolinensis, M. mutator, and M. scutellatus.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2006-06-01
    Description: Forest managers are faced with complicated road construction and deactivation decisions. When construction, upgrading, and deactivation strategies must be determined simultaneously over broad spatial and temporal scales, the problem becomes very complex and decision support systems are needed. In this paper, we report the development and application of an optimal road class and deactivation model using dynamic programming. We tested our model on projected road networks on Hardwicke Island, British Columbia. Sensitivity of inputs such as construction costs, upgrade costs, hauling and maintenance costs, deactivation costs, length of time horizon, discount rate, and haul volume were tested within and between two road networks. Comparison of road networks revealed that haul volume concentration, average haul distance, and total road length are the most important variables that affect road class decisions and total network costs. Within our case study, the road network with the lowest average hauling distance resulted in the lowest total cost (CAN$0.24/m3 less), because hauling costs are the largest component (46%) of total transportation costs. The dynamic programming model can be used to assess numerous road construction and maintenance assumptions under various silviculture and harvest systems.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 1983-12-01
    Description: Alnusrubra Bong, dominates the first 65 – 80 years of a sere that is initiated naturally on the terraces of the Hoh River. Stands of 14, 24, and 65 years were studied to determine to what extent the Alnus stage enriched the nitrogen inventory of the site. Bare sandbars deposited by the river had a mean of 783 kg/ha nitrogen. Alnus communities caused an increase in the nitrogen inventory so that, by 65 years, total community nitrogen was 4659 kg/ha, soils held 3594 kg/ha N in the upper 45 cm, and Alnus trees held 942 kg/ha N. The nitrogen contents of the soil, Alnus wood, bark, and branches, grasses, total aboveground biomass, total belowground biomass, and sticks less than 1 cm diameter all showed significant increases from 14 to 65 years. The A. rubra stage is an important link in the nutrient inventory between unvegetated, recently deposited sandbars and the climax coniferous forests dominated by Tsugaheterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. and Piceasitchensis (Bong.) Carr.
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2005-04-01
    Description: The detection of release events in the annual growth increments of trees has become a central and widely applied method for reconstructing the disturbance history of forests. While numerous approaches have been developed for identifying release events, the preponderance of these methods relies on running means that compare the percent change in growth rates. These methods do not explicitly account for the autocorrelation present within tree-ring width measurements and may introduce spurious events. This paper utilizes autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) processes to model tree-ring time series and incorporates intervention detection to identify pulse and step outliers as well as changes in trends indicative of a deterministic exogenous influence on past growth. This approach is evaluated by applying it to three chronologies from the Forest Responses to Anthropogenic Stress (FORAST) project that were impacted by prior disturbance events. The examples include a hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière) chronology from New Hampshire, a white pine (Pinus strobus L.) chronology from Pennsylvania, and an American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.) chronology from Virginia. All three chronologies exhibit a clustering of step, pulse, and trend interventions subsequent to a known or likely disturbance event. Time-series analysis offers an alternative approach for identifying prior forest disturbances via tree rings based on statistical methods applicable across species and disturbance regimes.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2007-12-01
    Description: In this paper, we consider a tactical transportation planning problem in forestry to decide the destination of logs. This problem is generally solved by finding the flow between a set of supply points and demand points. It can be formulated as a linear programming problem involving direct flows between supply and demand points. However, better solutions can be found by using additional flow variables representing flow in potential backhaul routes. However, the number of such variables is often very large. In this article, we provide the basis for backhaul flow planning in forestry. This includes defining the underlying operations research models for both the flow problem and the subproblem to find backhaul routes. The size of the problem in terms of the number of variables increases rapidly with the number of supplies and demands and we describe a column generation approach for its solution. We report on some case studies and industrial systems where the approach has been used.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2009-12-01
    Description: Methods were developed to predict the moisture content of the elevated dead fine fuel layer in gorse ( Ulex europaeus L.) shrub fuels. This layer has been observed to be important for fire development and spread in these fuels. The accuracy of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System to predict the moisture content of this layer was evaluated. An existing model was used to determine the response time and equilibrium moisture content from field data. This response time was incorporated into a bookkeeping model, combining the FFMC and this response time–equilibrium moisture content model. The FFMC poorly predicted the elevated dead fuel moisture content in gorse fuels, and attempts to improve its accuracy through regression modelling were unsuccessful. The response time of the elevated dead fine fuel layer was very fast (38–77 min) and has important implications for fire danger rating. The bookkeeping approach was the most promising method to predict elevated dead fuel moisture content. A limitation was the inability to model fuel-level meteorology. However, this model warrants further validation and extension to other shrub fuels and could be incorporated into existing fire danger rating systems that can utilize hourly weather data.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2006-07-01
    Description: Spatial analysis of progeny trial data improved predicted genetic responses by more than 10% for around 20 of the 216 variables tested, although, in general, the gains were more modest. The spatial method partitions the residual variance into an independent component and a two-dimensional spatially autocorrelated component and is fitted using REML. The largest improvements in likelihood were for height. Traits that exhibit little spatial structure (stem counts, form, and branching) did not respond as often. The spatial component represented up to 50% of the total residual variance, usually subsuming design-based blocking effects. The autocorrelation tended to be high for growth, indicating a smooth environmental surface, it tended to be small for measures of health, indicating patchiness, and otherwise the autocorrelation was intermediate. Negative autocorrelations, indicating competition, were present in only 10% of diameter measurements for the largest diameter square planted trials, and between nearest trees with rectangular planting at smaller diameters. Bimodal likelihood surfaces indicate that competition may be present, but not dominant, in other cases. Modelling of extraneous effects yielded extra genetic gain only in a few trials with severely asymmetric autocorrelations. Block analysis of resolvable incomplete-block or row–column designs was better than randomized complete-block analysis, but spatial analysis was even better.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2008-08-01
    Description: This paper examines the problem of harvest capacity planning at a tactical level. Annual capacity planning allows planners to determine the number of contractors to hire per period throughout the year and to define the duration of their contracts. In practice, this process usually involves the analysis of historical data regarding the operational use of capacity and aggregated demand forecast, the output of which then serves to plan harvest operations. Although this form of hierarchical planning reduces the complexity of the task, the decomposition into subproblems that must be successively resolved can lead to infeasibility or poor use of harvesting capacity. The specific problem addressed here resides in how one can consider the operational impact of harvesting decisions taken at the tactical level to ensure a plan’s feasibility at the operational level. We present a tactical planning process based on Schneeweiss’ generic hierarchical modeling approach. A computational experiment demonstrates how a tactical planning process is influenced by the input of the operational level anticipation model. The anticipation approach we propose appears to be a valid method to better integrate key operational-level decisions into tactical plans.
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2008-05-01
    Description: Spatial tree data are required for the development of spatially explicit models and for the estimation of summary statistics such as Ripley’s K function. Such data are rare and expensive to gather. This paper presents an efficient method of synthesizing spatial tree point patterns from nearest neighbour summary statistics (NNSS) sampled in small circular subwindows, which uses a stochastic optimization technique based on simulated annealing and conditional simulation. This nonparametric method was tested by comparing tree point patterns, reconstructed from sample data, with the original woodland patterns of three structurally different tree populations. Analysis and validation show that complex spatial woodland structures, including long-range tree interactions, can be successfully reconstructed from NNSS despite the limited range of the subwindows and statistics. The influence of the NNSS varies depending on the woodland under study. In some cases, the sampling results can be improved by reconstruction. Furthermore, it is clearly shown that it is possible to estimate second-order characteristics such as Ripley’s K function from small circular subwindows through the reconstruction technique. The results offer new opportunities for adding value to woodland surveys by making raw data available for further work such as growth projections, visualization, and modelling.
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2009-04-01
    Description: Tree species is a key factor in shaping epiphytic lichen communities. In managed forests, tree species composition is mainly controlled by forest management, with important consequences on lichen diversity. The main aim of this work was to evaluate the differences at tree level in macrolichen richness and composition between Abies alba Mill. and Fagus sylvatica L. in a temperate mixed forest in northern Italy, in addition to evaluating two different proportions of the two species at the stand level. Abies alba and F. sylvatica host lichen communities including several rare and sensitive species. Our findings indicate that both tree species were important for lichen diversity, since they hosted different communities. However, F. sylvatica proved to be a more favourable hosting tree for several rare and sensitive species. Species associated with A. alba were mainly acidophytic lichens, while those associated with F. sylvatica were foliose hygrophytic lichens, mainly establishing over bryophytes. The frequency of the flagship species Lobaria pulmonaria (L.) Hoffm. was a valuable predictor of cyanolichen richness and was useful in identifying sites hosting lichen communities that are potentially more sensitive to thinning and human disturbance. The results support the relevance of mixed A. alba – F. sylvatica formations among European habitats worthy of conservation.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2006-12-01
    Description: Canadian fire managers seek to contain fires below some target size (here 3 ha) by initial attack (IA). Suppression failures occur when fire size at IA exceeds this target (a response failure) or if an initially small fire cannot be contained below it (a containment failure). We examined the effects of cause, season, forest fuels, anthropogenic linear features, weather, and fire management (response time, size at IA) on the probability of these two types of suppression failures, using multiple logistic regression on 1196 fires that occurred within the boreal mixedwood forest of northeastern Alberta during 1995–2002. The frequencies of containment (7%) and response failures (10%) were similar, but the latter accounted for 85% of the area burned. Response failure probability was greater for fires caused by lightning than those caused by humans and increased with longer response times, local abundance of black spruce in summer, and pine fuel under severe fire weather. We found no effect of linear features or other fuel types. Containment failure probability was related to size at IA and fire weather conditions. Our models suggest that a reduction in area burned might be possible if additional fire-specific factors affecting response failure probability could be incorporated into operational decisions.
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2008-05-01
    Description: The relative importance of fire and flooding on the population dynamics of eastern white-cedar ( Thuja occidentalis L.) and black ash ( Fraxinus nigra Marsh.) was evaluated in eight old-growth riparian stands of southwestern boreal Quebec, Canada. Rising water levels and decreasing fire frequency since the end of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1850) were expected to have favoured an inland migration of the riparian forest fringe, with the flood-tolerant black ash colonizing the lower parts of the shore terraces and eastern white-cedar the upper parts. Black ash was found to be restricted to the riparian zone (
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2005-02-01
    Description: To investigate causes of tree species distributions across soil resources in northern Michigan, we conducted a seedling transplant experiment with five species showing different site affinities: Acer saccharum Marsh. (sugar maple), Prunus serotina Ehrh. (black cherry), and Fraxinus americana L. (white ash), which are associated with high-fertility mesic moraine; Quercus rubra L. (red oak), associated with intermediate sites; and Quercus velutina Lam. (black oak), associated with low-fertility droughty outwash sites. Seedlings were planted in plots stratified across variation in light and soil nutrient and water availability. After one growing season, under 14%27% canopy openness, species tended to trade off between high survival on outwash versus high relative growth rate of root + stem mass (RGRrs) on moraine. The high survivorship of black and red oak on outwash was associated with greater root and whole-plant mass in comparison with sugar maple, white ash, and black cherry. High RGRrs on high-fertility moraine for these latter species was associated with high fine root area per unit whole-plant mass and plasticity to increase specific root area in response to increased soil resources. We did not detect a similar survivalgrowth trade-off for seedlings grown at lower light (3%10%) on intermediate versus high-fertility sites. Overall, these results suggest that species distributions across soil resource gradients can in part be explained by a trade-off between tolerance of low soil resources versus competitive ability (i.e., growth) under high soil resources.
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2006-06-01
    Description: The focal point seed zone methodology determines spatially explicit areas of adaptive similarity for any selected geographic point and is used to match seed sources and planting sites. A total of 127 seed sources (provenances) of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) from Ontario and western Quebec were established at a greenhouse and in six field trials throughout Ontario. Growth and phenological variables were measured over three growing seasons. Two focal point seed zone methodologies were employed: (i) using models derived from principal components analysis (PCA) of biological response variables followed by multiple linear regression against climate variables and (ii) using models derived from canonical correlation analysis (CANCOR). While both approaches use climate data to model adaptive variation, CANCOR reduces the number of steps in the analysis by simultaneously finding the relationships of biological and climatic variables that maximize the covariance between the two data sets. Although more of the variation in adaptive biological traits was actually described by climate variables using the PCAregression approach, this method produced intuitively less realistic patterns. Both methods showed similar overall geographic trends, but the CANCOR method had a finer resolution, especially in southern Ontario, presumably due to statistical efficiency; growth was modeled by all climate variables.
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2005-09-01
    Description: This study investigated the relationship between climate and landscape characteristics and surface fuel consumption as well as the effects of variations in postfire organic layer depth on soil temperature and moisture in a black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) forest complex in interior Alaska. Mineral soil moisture and temperature at the end of the growing season and organic layer depth were measured in three burns occurring in different years (1987, 1994, 1999) and in adjacent unburned stands. In unburned stands, average organic layer and humic layer depth increased with stand age. Mineral soil temperature and moisture varied as a function of the surface organic layer depth in unburned stands, indicating that as a stand matures, the moisture content of the deep duff layer is likely to increase as well. Fires reduced the depth of the surface organic layers by 5 to 24 cm. Within each burn we found that significant variations in levels of surface fuel consumption were related to several factors, including mineral soil texture, presence or absence of permafrost, and timing of the fires with respect to seasonal permafrost thaw. While seasonal weather patterns contribute to variations in fuel moisture and consumption during fires, interactions among the soil thermal regime, surface organic layer depth, and previous fire history are also important in controlling patterns of surface fuel consumption.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2005-06-01
    Description: Landsat imagery was used to study the relationship between a remotely sensed burn severity index and prefire vegetation and the postfire vegetation response related to burn severity within a 1986 burn in interior Alaska. Vegetation was classified prior to the fire and 16 years after the fire, and a chronosequence of remotely sensed vegetation index values was analyzed as a surrogate of vegetation recovery. Remotely sensed burn severity varied by vegetation class, with needle-leaf forest classes experiencing higher burn severity than broadleaf forest or broadleaf shrubland classes. Burn severity varied by cover within needle-leaf classes. Elevation also had an influence on burn severity, presumably as a result of there being less fuel above the treeline. Several large broadleaf areas at the fire perimeter appeared to act as fire breaks. A remotely sensed vegetation index peaked 814 years after the fire, and increase in the vegetation index was highest within the highest burn severity class. Self-replacement appeared to be the dominant successional pathway, with prefire needle-leaf forest classes mostly succeeding to needle-leaf woodland and with prefire broadleaf forest mostly succeeding to broadleaf shrubland. Because the remotely sensed indices were based on reflected solar radiation, they are likely indicative of surface properties, such as canopy destruction and surface charring, rather than subsurface properties, such as postfire depth of organic soil.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 1982-06-01
    Description: Flooding for 30 days induced several changes in Quercusmacrocarpa Michx. seedlings, with stomatal closure among the earliest responses. Stomata remained more closed in flooded than in unflooded plants during the entire experimental period. Leaf water potential was consistently higher in flooded than in unflooded plants. Other responses to flooding included acceleration of ethylene production by stems; formation of hypertrophied lenticels on submerged portions of stems; growth inhibition, with greatest reduction in roots; and formation of a few adventitious roots on submerged portions of the stem above the soil line. Some of the morphological responses to flooding, especially formation of hypertrophied lenticels, appeared to be associated with increased ethylene production. Quercusmacrocarpa seedlings adapted poorly to flooding as shown by failure of stomata to reopen after an early period of flooding and low capacity for production of adventitious roots. The much greater inhibition of root growth than shoot growth by flooding will reduce drought tolerance after floodwaters recede.
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2006-11-01
    Description: The longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) forest ecosystems of the US southeastern Coastal Plain, among the most biologically diverse ecosystems in North America, originally covered over 24 × 106 ha but now occupy less than 5% of their original extent. The key factor for sustaining their high levels of diversity is the frequent application of prescribed fire uninterrupted in time and space. Pine fuels, critical to application of fire and regulated by canopy distribution, provide the nexus between silviculture and fire management in this system. Typical silvicultural approaches for this type were, in large part, developed to maximize the establishment and growth of regeneration as well as growth and yield of timber, with much less regard to how those practices might influence the ability to sustain prescribed burning regimes or the associated biodiversity. However, many landholdings in the region now include conservation of biodiversity as a primary objective with sustained timber yield as an important but secondary goal. This review synthesizes the literature related to controls of biodiversity for longleaf pine ecosystems, and silvicultural approaches are compared in their ability to sustain natural disturbance such as fire and how closely they mimic the variation, patterns, and processes of natural disturbance regimes while allowing for regeneration.
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2005-08-01
    Description: In forests of eastern North America, introduced pathogens have caused widespread declines in a number of important tree species, including dominant species such as American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.). Most studies have focused on changes in forest composition and structure as a direct result of mortality caused by a pathogen. Our field studies of windthrow resistance in forests of northern New York and northern Michigan demonstrate that resistance of beech trees to windthrow is severely reduced by beech bark disease (BBD). This reduced resistance was primarily due to the increase in the probability of stem breaks of moderately and highly infected beech trees. The severity of BBD infection on individual trees has a significant negative effect on resistance to windthrow. We tested potential consequences of this for long-term composition and structure in these forests by using a simulation model, SORTIE. We found that species such as yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britt.) and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) increased in basal area primarily because of the effect BBD had on the creation of new seedbed substrates. Our results highlight the indirect effects that host-specific pathogens can have on community dynamics and species coexistence in forests.
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2007-06-01
    Description: A modified logistic function was used for modeling specific-gravity profiles obtained from X-ray densitometry analysis in 675 loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) trees in four regeneration trials. Trees were 21 or 22 years old at the time of the study. The function was used for demarcating corewood, transitional, and outerwood zones. Site and silvicultural effects were incorporated into the model. Heteroscedasticity and within-group correlation were accounted for by specifying the variance and serial-correlation structure, respectively. The estimated transition zone was located between rings 5 and 15, and the outerwood demarcation point varied from rings 12 to 15. No effects of treatments on the demarcation points were observed; however, site preparation and fertilization affected the lower asymptotes of the curves in all sites. A geographical trend for the demarcation point was observed, with the northern site requiring more time to reach a plateau in specific gravity compared with the southern sites. The diameter of the juvenile core was increased as a result of the treatments. However, the amount of corewood was not statistically affected, ranging from 55% in the north to 75% in the south, except at one site where fertilization decreased the percentage of corewood.
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2008-09-01
    Description: A forest plot with a clustered spatial pattern of tree locations was used to investigate the impacts of different kernel functions (fixed vs. adaptive) and different sizes of bandwidth on model fitting, model performance, and spatial characteristics of the geographically weighted regression (GWR) coefficient estimates and model residuals. Our results indicated that (i) the GWR models with smaller bandwidths fit the data better, yielded smaller model residuals across tree sizes, significantly reduced spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity for model residuals, and generated better spatial patterns for model residuals; however, smaller bandwidth sizes produced a high level of coefficient variability; (ii) the GWR models based on the fixed spatial kernel function produced smoother spatial distributions for the model coefficients than those based on the adaptive kernel function; and (iii) the GWR cross-validation or Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) optimization process may not produce an “optimal” bandwidth for model fitting and performance. It was evident that the selection of spatial kernel function and bandwidth has a strong impact on the descriptive and predictive power of GWR models.
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2008-02-01
    Description: Using a mail questionnaire targeted at 500 softwood sawmills in the United States and Canada, firm innovativeness was assessed using three methods: (1) current technology, (2) self-evaluation, and (3) a new scale — the propensity to create and adopt scale. The results of these three methods were then compared to assess the performance of each method. Additionally, the relationship between firm innovativeness and financial performance was examined. Based on responses from 85 sawmills (19% adjusted response rate), the results show that both the self-evaluated and the propensity to create and adopt measures differentiate between mills with high and low levels of innovativeness. The composite of the propensity to create and adopt scale shows higher reliability (Chronbach’s α = 0.97) than the self-evaluated scale (Chronbach’s α = 0.68). Significant relationships between sawmill performance and each of the three measures of innovativeness were seen, with the propensity to create and adopt scale generally having the strongest positive relationships. Current technology was significantly related to sales growth, but not gross profit.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 1983-10-01
    Description: Root elongation of greenhouse-grown Alaskan taiga tree seedlings increased with increasing root temperature in all six species examined and was most temperature sensitive in warm-adapted aspen (Populustremuloides Michx.). Root elongation was slower in fine than large roots and in black spruce (Piceamariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) was less temperature sensitive in fine than in large roots. Root elongation in the laboratory was slowest in black spruce, which has an inherently slow growth rate, and most rapid in poplar (Populusbalsamifera L.) and aspen, which grow more rapidly. In contrast, field root elongation rates tended to be highest in black spruce from cold wet sites, suggesting that site factors other than soil temperature (e.g., moisture) predominated over genetic differences among species in determining field root elongation rates. The seasonal pattern of root elongation was closely correlated with soil temperature and reached maximum rates in July for all tree species (except aspen medium-sized roots). Most roots of each species were in the top 20 cm of soil. However, root growth penetrated to greater depth in warm compared with cold sites. Root biomass in a 130-year black spruce forest (1230 g/m2) comprised only 15% of total tree biomass. Root biomass of 25-year aspen and 60-year poplar sites (517 and 5385 g/m2, respectively) comprised a greater proportion (57% in poplar) of total tree biomass than in spruce.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2007-04-01
    Description: The effects of 20th century spruce budworm ( Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreaks on forest dynamics was examined in the southern and northern parts of the mixedwood forest zone in central Quebec, Canada. In each region, three study areas were placed in unmanaged stands that had not burned for more than 200 years. Disturbance impacts and forest succession were evaluated using aerial photographs and dendrochronology. Spruce budworm outbreaks occurred around 1910, 1950, and 1980 in both regions. The 1910 outbreak seemed to have limited impact in both regions, and the 1950 outbreak caused heavy mortality in conifer stands (mostly of balsam fir, Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) in the southern region. The 1980 outbreak caused major mortality in the northern region, but had little impact in the southern region. Successive spruce budworm outbreaks led to a massive invasion by hardwood species in the last century in the southern region but not in the northern region. The reason for such contrasting dynamics between regions is unknown, but we hypothesize that differences in disturbance intensities, influenced by climate, played a major role. Results from this study emphasize that generalizations about the effect of spruce budworm outbreaks on forest dynamics cannot be derived from observations made during a single outbreak or at a single location.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2006-06-01
    Description: Hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae Annand) infestations have resulted in the continuing decline of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière) throughout much of the eastern United States. In 1994 and 2003, we quantified the vegetation composition and structure of two hemlock ravines in the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area. This is the first study to use pre-adelgid disturbance data, annual monitoring of infestation severity, and annual records of hemlock health to assess forest response to HWA infestation. In 2003, 25% of monitored hemlock trees were either dead or in severe decline. Measures of hemlock decline (crown vigor, transparency, density, and dieback) were correlated with HWA infestation severity and changes in light availability over the study period. Average percent total transmitted radiation more than doubled at these sites from 5.0% in 1994 to 11.7% in 2003. The total percent cover of vascular plants increased from 3.1% in 1994 to 11.3% in 2003. Species richness increased significantly, and more species were gained (53) than lost (19) from both ravine floras over the 9-year study period. Though exotic invasive plants were absent from these ravines in 1994, our 2003 resurvey found invasive plants in 35% of the permanent vegetation plots.
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2008-04-01
    Description: Thinning and thinning followed by prescribed fire are common management practices intended to restore historic conditions in low-elevation ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex P. & C. Laws.) forests of the northern Rocky Mountains. While these treatments generally ameliorate the physiology and growth of residual trees, treatment-specific effects on reproductive output are not known. We examined reproductive output of second-growth ponderosa pine in western Montana 9 years after the application of four treatments: thinning, thinning followed by spring prescribed fire, thinning followed by fall prescribed fire, and unthinned control stands. Field and greenhouse observations indicated that reproductive traits vary depending on the specific management treatment. Cone production was significantly higher in trees from all actively managed stands relative to control trees. Trees subjected to prescribed fire produced cones with higher numbers of filled seeds than trees in unburned treatments. Seed mass, percentage germination, and seedling biomass were significantly lower for seeds from trees in spring burn treatments relative to all others and were generally higher in trees from fall burn treatments. We show for the first time that thinning and prescribed-burning treatments can influence reproductive output in ponderosa pine.
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2006-07-01
    Description: To exploit the variation in the natural durability of heartwood timber, screening of a large number of trees or timber is necessary. We suggest that the concentration of total phenolics, measured by the Folin–Ciocalteu (FC) assay, can be used to supplement or even replace in vitro decay tests for screening the variation in the resistance of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) heartwood timber against the brown-rot fungus Coniophora puteana (Schum. ex Fr.). We screened the juvenile heartwood of 520 Scots pine trees with the FC assay. Samples from 40 trees, with total phenolics concentrations ranging from 1.9 to 21.7 mg tannic acid equivalents (TAE)/g of heartwood, were subjected to an in vitro decay test. The correlation (r) between the total phenolics concentration and mass loss was –0.82 (p 
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 1983-10-01
    Description: The patterns of translocation of carbon in different-age tissues of four common moss species in a black spruce (Piceamariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) dominated forest near Fairbanks, Alaska, were studied by 14C labelling and carbohydrate analysis. A simple, in-vial combustion technique was developed for combustion of small (
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 1982-12-01
    Description: Water stress of subalpine conifer species may be measured with the pressure chamber after several hours of tissue storage. Tissue samples stored in cool, humid vials exhibited very little change in xylem pressure potential over a 4-h period. However, xylem pressure potential declined steadily when a source of water vapor was not available. Xylem pressure potentials of current-year and 1-year-old needles of lodgepole pine (Pinuscontorta var. latifolia Engelm.) were slightly lower than those of older needles.
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2007-09-01
    Description: We surveyed and wounded forest-grown sugar maple ( Acer saccharum Marsh.) trees in a long-term, replicated Ca manipulation study at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. Plots received applications of Ca (to boost Ca availability above depleted ambient levels) or Al (to compete with Ca uptake and further reduce Ca availability). We found significantly greater total foliar and membrane-associated Ca in foliage of trees in plots fertilized with Ca when compared with trees from Al-addition and control plots (P = 0.005). Coinciding with foliar Ca differences, trees exhibited a significant difference in crown vigor and in percent branch dieback among treatments (P 〈 0.05), with a trend towards improved canopy health as Ca levels increased. Annual basal area increment growth for the years following treatment initiation (1998–2004) was significantly greater in trees subjected to Ca addition compared with trees in control and Al treatments. Treatment-related improvements in growth were particularly evident after overstory release following a 1998 ice storm. The amount of wound closure was also greatest for trees in Ca-addition plots relative to Al-addition and control plots (P = 0.041). These findings support evidence that ambient Ca depletion is an important limiting factor regarding sugar maple health and highlight the influence of Ca on wound closure and growth following release from competition.
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2006-07-01
    Description: In a base-poor northern hardwood stand in Quebec, subjected to high acid deposition, sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) nutrition, growth, and crown vigor were evaluated 10 years after application of 0–50 t·ha–1 of CaMg(CO3)2 in 1994. One decade after treatment, foliar calcium and magnesium concentrations of sugar maple were still higher for treated than for control trees. The analysis of foliar nutrient indices showed that liming improved the nutrition of nitrogen and calcium, but caused imbalance of phosphorus, potassium, and magnesium. In 2004, crown dieback was much lower for limed trees (0.5%–4.5%) as compared to unlimed trees (23.7%). When compared with crown dieback before treatment, dieback of limed trees generally had decreased by 2004, while dieback of untreated maple trees increased over the 1994–2004 period. In 2004, basal area increment for limed trees was nearly double that of unlimed trees. However, no difference was detectable among trees limed at different rates. Midterm efficacy of liming in this study was demonstrated by the improvement of sugar maple calcium nutrition, crown vigor, and stem growth 10 years following treatment. This confirms the potential of liming to limit damage caused by acid deposition in base-poor and declining northern hardwood stands.
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2008-11-01
    Description: Airborne laser scanning (lidar) technology is increasingly being applied in forest ecosystem surveys. This research note proposes a design-based approach for the lidar-assisted estimation of forest standing volume when ground surveys are performed by means of fixed-area plots. The lidar measurement of the height of the upper canopy (digital crown model) is performed for the whole study area, and the resulting pixel heights are adopted as auxiliary information to couple with the standing volume acquired on the ground by means of sample plots. The ratio estimator for the total volume of the forest is derived in a complete design-based framework together with an unbiased estimator of its sampling variance and the corresponding confidence interval. The proposed procedure has been tested in Bosco della Fontana, a lowland forest in Northern Italy, obtaining a 95% confidence interval for the total volume, which is approximately 2/3 smaller than that obtained by solely using information arising from field plots.
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2005-08-01
    Description: To assess the genetic control of biomass distribution in trees, phenotypic variation in the distribution of dry mass to stems, branches, leaves, coarse roots, and fine roots was examined in two hybrid poplar (Populus trichocarpa Torr. & A. Gray (T) × Populus deltoides Bartr. ex Marsh. (D)) families grown under field conditions. Family 331 was an inbred F2 (TD × TD) pedigree, whereas family 13 was an outbred backcross BC1 (TD × D) pedigree. Fractional distribution of total whole-tree biomass to shoots and roots during their establishment year averaged (±SD) 0.62 ± 0.09 and 0.38 ± 0.09, respectively, across 247 genotypes in family 331, and 0.57 ± 0.06 and 0.43 ± 0.06, respectively, across 160 genotypes in family 13. In contrast, fractional distribution of total biomass in 2-year-old trees was 0.79 ± 0.04 to shoots and 0.21 ± 0.04 to roots. Allometric analysis indicated that as trees increased in age, biomass was preferentially distributed to stems and branches, whereas distribution to roots declined. Quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis for family 13 indicated 31 QTL (likelihood of odds 〉2.5) for traits measured. The percent phenotypic variation explained by any single QTL ranged from 7.5% to 18.3% and averaged 11.2% across all QTL. These results show that aboveground and belowground patterns of biomass distribution are under genetic control. This finding has wide-ranging implications for carbon sequestration, phytoremediation, and basic biological research in trees.
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2009-04-01
    Description: Despite the availability of several protocols for the extraction of chlorophylls and carotenoids from foliage of forest trees, information regarding their respective extraction efficiencies is scarce. We compared the efficiencies of acetone, ethanol, dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), and N, N-dimethylformamide (DMF) over a range of incubation times for the extraction of chlorophylls and carotenoids using small amounts of unmacerated tissue. Of the 11 species studied, comparable amounts of chlorophyll were extracted by all four solvents from three species and by ethanol and DMF from nine species. In four species, acetone, ethanol, and DMF extracted comparable chlorophyll amounts, while in another two species comparable amounts were extracted by ethanol, DMSO, and DMF. In one species, ethanol extracted significantly greater amounts of chlorophyll compared with all other solvents. The brown coloration of DMSO extracts for some species compromised the calculations of chlorophylls and carotenoids, making DMSO a poor choice. Overall, extraction efficiencies of ethanol and DMF were comparable for analyzing chlorophyll concentrations. However, because DMF is more toxic than ethanol, we recommend ethanol as the better option of these two for chlorophyll extractions. On the other hand, DMF is the most efficient solvent among the four tested for the extraction of carotenoids from these species. The results presented will facilitate the design of multispecies local- and regional-scale ecological studies to evaluate forest health. Additionally, they will enable reliable comparisons of results from multiple laboratories and (or) studies that used different solvents and help validate chlorophyll estimates obtained by remote sensing.
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2007-09-01
    Description: We assessed canopy openness (%) in an old-growth beech–maple forest immediately before and in the 3 years following a severe ice storm. We estimated canopy openness using hemispherical photographs taken at a height of 0.6 m above the soil surface in 101 permanent plots. Mean canopy openness increased from a prestorm value of 7.7% to 16.6% in the summer immediately following the storm. However, the mean canopy openness returned to prestorm levels within 3 years. The changes in canopy openness immediately after the storm were significantly influenced by canopy openness prior to the storm and also by species composition; plots with lower canopy openness prior to the storm and plots that consisted of more shade-tolerant species had greater canopy damage. While canopy gaps are often considered to promote the establishment of shade-intolerant species in the deciduous forests of eastern North America, gaps created by ice storms at our study site may not persist long enough to promote the establishment of these species.
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2006-12-01
    Description: In this introduction to the following series of papers on Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) we briefly summarize BBNs, review their application in ecology and natural resource management, and provide an overview of the papers in this section. We suggest that BBNs are useful tools for representing expert knowledge of an ecosystem, evaluating potential effects of alternative management decisions, and communicating with nonexperts about making natural resource management decisions. BBNs can be used effectively to represent uncertainty in understanding and variability in ecosystem response, and the influence of uncertainty and variability on costs and benefits assigned to model outcomes or decisions associated with natural resource management. BBN tools also lend themselves well to an adaptive-management framework by posing testable management hypotheses and incorporating new knowledge to evaluate existing management guidelines.
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2006-10-01
    Description: Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), and western redcedar (Thuja plicata Donn ex D. Don) seedlings were planted in March 2001 within three clearcut-harvested, shelterwood, or thinned stands of mature Douglas-fir near Olympia, Washington. From 2002 to 2005, areas of vegetation control of 0, 4.5, or 9 m2 were maintained with herbicides around a total 162 seedlings per species. Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 34%, 62%, and 100% of full sunlight in thinned stands, shelterwoods, and clearcuts, respectively. Effects of overstory level and vegetation control on seedling growth and resource availability generally were additive. Seedling stem volume index in clearcuts averaged four to eight times that observed in thinned stands, and with vegetation control, it averaged two to four times that observed without it. In thinned stands, relative growth rate of seedling stem volume index had a positive linear relationship with PAR (R2 = 0.38). Foliar nitrogen content of Douglas-fir explained 71% of the variation in relative growth rate. Factors explaining the most variation in foliar nitrogen content differed between thinned stands (PAR, R2 = 0.34) and clearcuts or shelterwoods (midday water potential, R2 = 0.63), suggesting that light and root competition, respectively, were the primary growth-limiting factors for these overstory levels.
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2006-01-01
    Description: Observations of tree seedlings with chlorotic foliage and stunted growth near harvest gap – forest edges in interior cedar–hemlock forests inspired a study addressing the following questions: (1) Do seedling foliar chemistry, foliar nitrogen (N) versus growth relationships, and fertilizer responses suggest N-limited seedling growth? (2) Are patterns in soil characteristics consistent with N limitation, and can interrelationships among these characteristics infer causality? Our results suggest that seedling growth near gap–forest edges was colimited by N and light availability. Soil mineral N and dissolved organic N (DON) concentrations, in situ net N mineralization, and water generally increased from forest to gap, whereas N mineralization from a laboratory incubation and total N and carbon did not vary with gap–forest position. Interrelations among variables and path analysis suggest that soil water and total soil N positively affect DON concentration and N mineralization, and proximity to mature gap–forest edge trees negatively impacts mineral N concentration and water. Collectively, our results suggest that soil N levels which limit seedling growth near gap edges can be partially explained by the direct negative impacts of gap–forest edge trees on mineral N concentrations and their indirect impacts on N cycling via soil water, and not via effects on substrate chemistry.
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2006-11-01
    Description: The past decade has seen an increasing interest in forest management based on historical or natural disturbance dynamics. The rationale is that management that favours landscape compositions and stand structures similar to those found historically should also maintain biodiversity and essential ecological functions. In fire-dominated landscapes, this approach is feasible only if current and future fire frequencies are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire frequency, so a substitution of fire by forest management can occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. We address this question by comparing current and simulated future fire frequency based on 2 × CO2 and 3 × CO2 scenarios to historical reconstructions of fire frequency in the commercial forests of Quebec. For most regions, current and simulated future fire frequencies are lower than the historical fire frequency, suggesting that forest management could potentially be used to maintain or recreate the age-class distribution of fire-dominated preindustrial landscapes. Current even-aged management, however, tends to reduce forest variability by, for example, truncating the natural age-class distribution and eliminating mature and old-growth forests from the landscape. Therefore, in the context of sustainable forest management, silvicultural techniques that retain a spectrum of forest compositions and structures at different scales are necessary to maintain this variability and thereby allow a substitution of fire by harvesting.
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 1983-02-01
    Description: The aboveground biomass of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsugamenziesii (Mirb.) Franco) and annual production over 7 years was studied in relation to thinning and nitrogen fertilization. Biomass yield of both treatments increased during the first 3–4 years then decreased for fertilization but not with thinning. Treatments doubled biomass production of individual trees over the study period when applied separately and quadrupled it when combined. Annual biomass production per unit of foliage (E) increased during the first 3–4 years, but was at or below control level after 7 years. The increased E accounted for 20, 37, and 27% of the stemwood dry matter response to thinning, fertilization and the combined treatments, respectively; the remainder was attributed to an increase in foliage biomass. Thinning, but not fertilization, influenced distribution of radial growth along the stem, increasing growth only below the top one-third of the stem. This pattern was related to crown development.
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2007-10-01
    Description: Plant polyphenolics are receiving increased attention for their influences on belowground processes. Tannins are of particular interest because of their predominance in natural systems, their wide variation in both quality and quantity, and their protein-binding abilities. Current theory holds that simple phenolics increase microbial activity by acting as carbon substrates, while larger tannins decrease microbial activity by binding with organic nitrogen such as proteins. Here, we present results from a simple microcosm experiment that demonstrates that the influence of condensed tannins on soil respiration depends on the availability of additional carbon substrates. We purified tannins from trembling aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) and crossed three levels of tannin additions with three levels of cellulose additions in laboratory microcosms. Soil respiration was measured over 36 days. In the absence of cellulose, high amounts of condensed tannins increased cumulative soil respiration. In the presence of abundant cellulose, condensed tannins decreased cumulative soil respiration. The positive and negative effects of purified tannins on soil respiration are time dependent, such that initial respiration is likely tannin induced, while later respiration is cellulose induced and tannin limited.
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 1981-09-01
    Description: In order to test the hypothesis that the deterioration of trembling aspen (Populustremuloides Michx.) is related to variations in climate, soil properties, and genotype, 59 trembling aspen clones were sampled in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ontario. A longevity index (LI) was calculated by taking the difference between predicted basal area from normal yield tables and measured basal area for each clone. Correlations of environmental variables with LI indicate that aspen longevity decreases with increasing mean annual temperature. Under similar temperature regimes, aspen growing on xeric sites and on sites low in exchangeable Ca are most susceptible to early breakup. Since there were negligible differences in soil properties between nine pairs of adjacent deteriorating and relatively well stocked clones, we hypothesize that, under similar environmental conditions, variation in the timing of deterioration may be due to genotypic differences between clones.
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2007-10-01
    Description: This paper aims to assess the influence of canopy cover on lichen growth in boreal forests along a regional forest gradient. Biomass and area gain, and some acclimation traits, were assessed in the old-forest lichens Lobaria pulmonaria (L.) Hoffm., Pseudocyphellaria crocata (L.) Vain., and Usnea longissima Ach. transplanted 110 days in three successional Norway spruce ( Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forest stands (clearcut, young, and old forest) repeated along a rainfall gradient (continental, suboceanic, and Atlantic zones) in Scandinavia. Lichen growth peaked in Atlantic rainforests with mean dry matter (DM) gain up to 36%–38%. The alectorioid lichen U. longissima showed the widest range of growth responses and no signs of chlorophyll degradation. Its highest DM gain consistently occurred in clearcuts, whereas the DM gain was close to zero in the shadiest young forest. The two foliose lichens L. pulmonaria and P. crocata exhibited maximal growth rates in old forests, but apparently growth was limited by low light even in old forests. Their DM gain was reduced in the most sun-exposed clearcuts due to chlorophyll degradation and was relatively high under closed young canopies, suggesting a better adaptation to shade. The lichen responses show that a high frequency and dominance of young and dense fast-growing forest stands at a landscape level are not compatible with large populations of these old-forest lichens and that a lack of lichens under an industrial forestry regime may not necessarily be determined by low dispersal efficiency only.
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2007-11-01
    Description: The forwarding of logs at harvest areas once the harvesting is done is planned manually by experienced operators. To improve their efficiency and simplify the planning we have developed and tested a decision support system at a major Swedish forest company. The system is based on a combination of a geographic information system (GIS), global positioning system (GPS), and optimization routines to solve the underlying vehicle routing problem. The routes for the forwarders are found by using a repeated matching algorithm. The solution time is short, and it is possible to find routes dynamically in a real-time environment. The geographic information required is found by using a GPS together with data obtained from the bucking software in the harvesters. To show the routes and location of the forwarder, we make use of a GIS that is connected to the GPS. We report on a study with savings in the distance travelled of 8% and numerical tests on the solution methodology. We also compare the proposed solution method with some well-known routing methods.
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2006-01-01
    Description: Root decomposition and nutrient release are typically estimated from dried root tissues; however, it is unlikely that roots dehydrate prior to decomposing. Soil fertility and root diameter may also affect the rate of decomposition. This study monitored mass loss and nutrient concentrations of dried and fresh roots of two size classes (
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2006-02-01
    Description: Invasions by nonindigenous forest insects can have spectacular effects on the biodiversity, ecology, and economy of affected areas. This introduction explores several critical issues that are generally relevant to invasions by forest insects to provide an extended background for this special issue of the Canadian Journal of Forest Research and highlights the key findings of the papers included in the issue. The topics covered address new information about (1) the role of cargo shipments as invasion pathways for the arrival of insects such as wood borers and bark beetles, (2) biogeographical effects that can influence the ecological and economic impact of insects feeding on exotic tree species, (3) the influence of biodiversity on impacts of forest insects and on the invasibility of ecosystem, and (4) recent advances in the detection, monitoring, and management of invasive species and native pests, including DNA barcoding for identification, the use of pheromones for monitoring and mating disruption, and biological control. These findings are likely to become even more important with elevated prevalence of invasions as a result of increasing global trade and international travel. Avenues of international communication and cooperation among scientists should be encouraged to enhance the sharing of information about biological invasions and to find solutions to this alarming problem.
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 1982-12-01
    Description: Carbohydrate reserves and root growth potential (RGP) of 2 + 0 Douglas-fir (Pseudotsugamenziesii (Mirb.) Franco) seedlings were monitored through a lifting season and during dark, cold storage. Concentrations of total nonstructural carbohydrate and extractable sugars in root and stem tissues remained relatively constant through winter, while foliar sugars showed a sharp midwinter peak at about 195 mg•g−1 dry weight. RGP was lowest in November and March and peaked in January. During storage at +2 and −1 °C, carbohydrates were depleted in all tissues through respiratory consumption. In contrast, RGP increased during the first 6 months in storage and then fell rapidly. The results do not support the view that changes in RGP are driven by changes in carbohydrate concentrations. Storage may affect frost hardiness and drought resistance through its effect on sugar concentrations.
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2009-12-01
    Description: In this study we examined various measures, including the concordance correlation (CC) coefficient, for determining the goodness of fit of forest models estimated by nonlinear mixed-model (NLMM) methods. Based on the volume–age data for black spruce, we analyzed the use of CC and other traditional goodness-of-fit measures such as coefficient of determination (R2), mean bias, percent bias, root mean square error, and graphic techniques on both the population and subject-specific levels within the NLMM framework. We also examined the relationship between goodness-of-fit measures and the number of observations per subject. We found that the standard overall goodness-of-fit measures commonly reported on combined data from different subjects were generally insufficient in determining the goodness of fitted models. We recommend that CC and other selected goodness-of-fit measures be calculated for individual subjects, and that the frequency distributions of the calculated values be examined and used as the principal criteria for determining the goodness of fit of forest models estimated by NLMM methods and for comparing alternative models and covariance structures. We also emphasized the importance of using pertinent graphic techniques to assess the appropriateness of NLMMs, especially at the subject-specific level, wherein lies the main interest of NLMMs.
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2005-05-01
    Description: Broad-scale monitoring of varying moisture levels of leaves has ramifications for understanding fire potential, biogeochemistry, and ecosystem dynamics. Five different shortwave infrared (SWIR)-derived spectral indices, principal components analysis (PCA), and the tasseled cap transformation (TCT), derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite data, were used to quantify landscape-level foliar moisture in an ecosystem dominated by Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson. Landsat TM data demonstrated stronger correlations with in situ calculations of foliar moisture than did ASTER data. The second principal component correlated strongly with ground data (r2 = 0.765). The Landsat-derived TCT wetness component was significantly correlated with ground data (r2 = 0.638) as well as a normalized difference NIR/SWIR ratio (r2 = 0.834). The spectral indices and TCT are more practical for ecosystem moisture monitoring than PCA because of the empirical nature of PCA. Based on these results, we recommend modifications to existing methods of satellite-based fire susceptibility monitoring to account for primary effects of vegetation curing and temporal variation in ground fuels.
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 1984-10-01
    Description: A nonlinear analytical model is developed to describe the relationship between average plant size (weight or volume) and stand density in single-aged, monospecific plant populations. The model gives estimates of the slope and intercept of the −3/2 power rule asymptote, the nature of the size–density trajectory, and such features as relative density at crown closure and the effects of soil type or site index. The model is tested by growing red alder (Alnusrubra Bong.) seedlings under greenhouse and lath house conditions at three initial spacings (8 × 8, 4 × 4, and 2 × 2 cm) and two soil types (river loam and alder forest soil) for 525 growth days. There are seven harvests, starting at crown closure. All size–density trajectories tend consistently towards the same single asymptote irrespective of initial spacing, soil type, or age. The asymptote slope and intercept are 1.46 and ca. 94 kg tree−1•m−2. The crown closure line is parallel to the asymptote at a relative density of 4.6 × 10−3. The model also adequately describes the size–density trajectories for 20–50-year-old red pines (Pinusresinosa Ait.) growing at six initial spacings. The asymptote slope and intercept are 1.6 and ca. 87 × 103 m3•tree−1•ha−1, respectively.
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 1982-09-01
    Description: The pipe model theory presents the idea that a unit weight of tree foliage is serviced by a specific cross-sectional area of conducting sapwood in the crown. Below the crown, a large fraction of the tree bole may be nonconducting tissue, so the sapwood area would have to be known to estimate foliage. We applied the pipe model theory to the analysis of several western coniferous species to learn whether the distribution of canopy leaf area could be accurately estimated from knowledge of the sapwood cross-sectional area at various heights, including breast height (1.37 m). Results are excellent, but taper in the conducting area must be considered when sapwood area is measured below the crown.
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2009-06-01
    Description: While piñon woodlands cover much of arid North America, surprisingly little is known about the role of fire in maintaining piñon forest structure and species composition. The lack of region-specific fire regime data for piñon–juniper woodlands presents a roadblock to managers striving to implement process-based management. This study characterized piñon–juniper fire regimes and forest stand dynamics in Big Bend National Park (BIBE) and the Davis Mountains Preserve of the Nature Conservancy (DMTNC) in west Texas. Mean fire return intervals were 36.5 and 11.2 years for BIBE and DMTNC, respectively. Point fire return intervals were 150 years at BIBE and 75 years at DMTNC. Tree regeneration in west Texas piñon–juniper woodlands occurred historically during favorable climatic conditions following fire years. The presence of multiple fire scars on our fire-scar samples and the multicohort stands of piñon suggested that low intensity fires were common. This study represents one of the few fire-scar-based fire regime studies for piñon–juniper woodlands. Our results differ from other studies in less topographically dissected landscapes that have identified stand-replacing fire as the dominant fire regime for piñon–juniper woodlands. This suggests that mixed-severity fire regimes are typical across southwestern piñon forests, and that topography is an important influence on fire frequency and intensity.
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2009-07-01
    Description: Data on the impact of forest management practices on ectomycorrhizal community structure remains fragmentary and mainly originates from studies in northern coniferous forests. This study focuses on a comparison of ectomycorrhizal communities between canopy gaps and closed canopy areas within natural and managed beech-dominated forests at four locations in Europe. We used high resolution rDNA techniques to identify ectomycorrhiza-forming fungi and attempted to extract potential stand-, gap-, soil-, and selected environmentally derived variables by applying multivariate analysis and ordination for pooling of ecological groups of ectomycorrhiza. A significant reduction of diversity indices, ectomycorrhizal and fine root dynamics, in gaps in comparison with closed canopy stands indicates an effect of forest management practice and the high importance of maintaining and protecting natural forest areas for conservation of soil biodiversity and forest genetic resources. The ordination analysis revealed three groups of ectomycorrhiza correlated with changing environmental conditions. The litter and soil pH, number of beech seedlings, and presence of a gap had a pronounced effect on the ectomycorrhizal community. Combined analysis of ectomycorrhiza and environmental factors using correspondence analysis provided an insight into the ecological preferences of the analysed species and confirmed that environmental factors drive ectomycorrhizal community changes.
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2006-04-01
    Description: Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) communities of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) seedlings were characterized from three habitats spanning a moisture gradient in central British Columbia: black spruce dominated wetlands, black spruce tamarack wetlands, and black spruce lodgepole pine uplands. Morphological and molecular (PCR-RFLP) analyses indicated a diverse community of root-associated ECM fungi consisting of 33 morphotypes and 65 genotypes. ECM abundance varied significantly between habitats for six morphotypes. Although many occurred in all three habitats, some occurred in only one or two, and some genotypes had distributions that suggested habitat specificity across the moisture gradient. Intraspecific variation (defined as genotype variation within morphotypes) ranged from one to seven genotypes, depending on ECM morphotype. Both morphological and molecular analyses showed that ECM diversity was greater in upland than in wetland habitats and greater in black spruce tamarack wetlands than in black spruce dominated wetlands (α ≤ 0.05). Morphological assessment captured contributions to diversity by both abundant and less abundant ECM morphotypes, whereas molecular analysis revealed patterns of genetic variation and habitat distribution at a finer resolution. The study presents the first comprehensive information on black spruce ECM and suggests that ECM community composition and richness varies across the moisture gradient in response to soil heterogeneity and alternate hosts (tamarack and lodgepole pine).
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2009-10-01
    Description: Relationships between stand growth and structural diversity were examined in spruce-dominated forests in New Brunswick, Canada. Net growth, survivor growth, mortality, and recruitment represented stand growth, and tree species, size, and height diversity indices were used to describe structural diversity. Mixed-effects second-order polynomial regressions were employed for statistical analysis. Results showed stand structural diversity had a significant positive effect on net growth and survivor growth by volume but not on mortality and recruitment. Among the tested diversity indices, the integrated diversity of tree species and height contributed most to stand net growth and survivor growth. Structural diversity showed increasing trends throughout the developmental stages from young, immature, mature, and overmature forest stands. This relationship between stand growth and structural diversity may be due to stands featuring high structural diversity that enhances niche complementarities of resource use because trees exist within different horizontal and vertical layers, and strong competition resulted from size differences among trees. It is recommended to include effects of species and structural diversity in forest growth modeling initiatives. Moreover, uneven-aged stand management in conjunction with selective or partial cutting to maintain high structural diversity is also recommended to maintain biodiversity and rapid growth in spruce-dominated forests.
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2009-08-01
    Description: Intraannual features or anomalies in the tree rings of woody species may provided useful information for ecological and climatological studies. The frequency of intraannual density fluctuations (IADFs), differences in IADFs according to the cambial age, changes in IADFs in the last century, and relationships of IADFs to radial growth and climate were analyzed in five stands of Pinus pinaster subsp. mesogeensis (Fieschi & Gaussen) Silba in east-central Spain. Standard dendrochronological techniques were used. Two cores were extracted 1.30 m above ground level from 15 dominant and codominant trees at each sampling site. The data were analyzed by analysis of variance, Pearson’s correlation, and logistic regression. Results showed that (i) the mean frequency of IADFs was higher in younger than older trees; (ii) the frequency of IADFs increased from the 1940s to the present; (iii) radial growth was negatively correlated with the presence of IADFs; and (iv) density fluctuations may be predicted by using a logistic model, with monthly rainfall and temperature as independent variables. Studies of intraannual features or anomalies in radial growth may be useful for ecological and climatological applications under forecasted climate change scenarios.
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2009-11-01
    Description: As forests develop, changes in soil organic matter quantity and quality affect both nutrient dynamics and microbial community structure. Litter decomposition and nitrogen mineralization in association with soil microbial communities were compared between 45- and 135-year-old lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta var. latifolia (Englem.)) stands in southeastern Wyoming, USA. Compared with the 45-year-old stand, the 135-year-old stand was found to have greater live-tree biomass, litter decomposition rates (264 versus 135 mg·(g litter)–1·year–1), soil nitrification rates (0.38 versus 0.19 µg NO3–·(g soil)–1 after 265 days of field incubation), and total phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) concentrations (25 versus 9.2 nmol·(g soil)–1 at 0–5 cm depth). Canonical correspondence analysis indicated that variation of PLFA profiles within the 45-year-old stand was explained by soil pH and bulk density, whereas soil process rates explained the distributions of PLFA profiles within the 135-year-old stand. The results of these studies indicate that stand age influences live-tree biomass and soil properties that can lead to changes in litter decomposition rates and soil microbial communities in lodgepole pine forests.
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2006-11-01
    Description: We used data from hardwood-dominated permanent sample plots in Ontario to estimate the probability of a tree falling during the 5 year period in which it dies ("tree fall"), and likewise the 5 year probability of snag fall. Tree fall probabilities ranged from 5% to 31% across species, with smaller dead trees more likely to be downed than larger ones. Expected half-lives (median time from death to fall) for 25 cm diameter snags varied from 5 to 13 years among species. Fall rates were higher for 10 cm diameter snags but relatively constant for 20–60 cm diameter snags. Recent harvesting substantially increased the probabilities of both tree fall and snag fall, with the former effect most pronounced for small individuals. We used these estimated fall rates to simulate snag dynamics in uneven-aged sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) stands. Mean snag densities were 32 and 50 snags/ha in selection-management and old-growth scenarios, respectively. Fifty-four percent of this difference was attributable to the lower density of live trees in the selection-management scenario, while 31% was attributable to losses of snags during harvesting. Silvicultural practices that strategically increase tree mortality rates, together with snag retention, as far as safety permits, during harvesting, could represent an effective approach to snag management under the selection system.
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2005-09-01
    Description: Permafrost degradation associated with a warming climate is second only to wildfires as a major disturbance to boreal forests. Permafrost temperatures have risen to 4 °C since the “Little Ice Age”, resulting in widespread thawing of permafrost. The mode of permafrost degradation is highly variable, and its topographic and ecological consequences depend on the interaction of slope position, soil texture, hydrology, and ice content. We partitioned this variability into 16 primary modes: (1) thermokarst lakes from lateral thermomechanical erosion; (2) thermokarst basins after lake drainage; (3) thaw sinks from subsurface drainage of lakes; (4) glacial thermokarst of ice-cored moraines; (5) linear collapse-scar fens associated with shallow groundwater movement; (6) round isolated collapse-scar bogs from slow lateral degradation; (7) small round isolated thermokarst pits from surface thawing; (8) polygonal thermokarst mounds from advanced ice-wedge degradation; (9) mixed thermokarst pits and polygons from initial ice-wedge degradation; (10) irregular thermokarst mounds from thawing of ice-poor silty soils; (11) sinkholes and pipes resulting from groundwater flow; (12) thermokarst gullies and water tracks from surface-water flow; (13) thaw slumps related to slope failure and thawing; (14) thermo-erosional niches from water undercutting of ice-rich shores; (15) collapsed pingos from thawing of massive ice in pingos; and (16) nonpatterned ground from thawing of ice-poor soils. These modes greatly influence how thermokarst changes or disrupts the ground surface, ecosystems, human activities, infrastructure, and the fluxes of energy, moisture, and gases across the landair interface.
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2009-05-01
    Description: We propose a new and relatively simple modification to extend the utility of bioclimatic envelope models for land-use planning and adaptation under climate change. In our approach, the trajectory of vegetation change is set by a bioclimatic envelope model, but the rate of transition is determined by a disturbance model. We used this new approach to explore potential changes in the distribution of ecosystems in Alberta, Canada, under alternative climate and disturbance scenarios. The disturbance model slowed the rate of ecosystem transition, relative to the raw projections of the bioclimatic envelope model. But even with these transition lags in place, a northward shift of grasslands into much of the existing parkland occurred over the 50 years of our simulation. There was also a conversion of 12%–21% of Alberta’s boreal region to parkland. In addition to aspatial projections, our simulations provide testable predictions about where ecosystem changes as a result of climate change are most likely to be initially observed. We also conducted an investigation of model uncertainty that provides an indication of the robustness of our findings and identifies fruitful avenues for future research.
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2006-04-01
    Description: Fire scars have been used to understand the historical role of fire in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex P. & C. Laws.) ecosystems, but sampling methods and interpretation of results have been criticized for being statistically invalid and biased and for leading to exaggerated estimates of fire frequency. We compared "targeted" sampling, random sampling, and grid-based sampling to a census of all 1479 fire-scarred trees in a 1 km2 study site in northern Arizona. Of these trees, 1246 were sufficiently intact to collect cross-sections; of these, 648 had fire scars that could be cross-dated to the year of occurrence in the 200-year analysis period. Given a sufficient sample size (approximately n ≥ 50), we concluded that all tested sampling methods resulted in accurate estimates of the census fire frequency, with mean fire intervals within 1 year of the census mean. We also assessed three analytical techniques: (1) fire intervals from individual trees, (2) the interval between the tree origin and the first scar, and (3) proportional filtering. "Bracketing" fire regime statistics to account for purported uncertainty associated with targeted sampling was not useful. Quantifying differences in sampling approaches cannot resolve all the limitations of fire-scar methods, but does strengthen interpretation of these data.
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