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  • 1995-1999  (822)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of geographical systems 1 (1999), S. 277-303 
    ISSN: 1435-5949
    Keywords: Key words: Higher education ; geodemographics ; participation rates ; JEL classification: C80 ; I21 ; I28 ; J11
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography
    Notes: Abstract. Higher education in England has expanded rapidly in the last ten years with the result that currently more than 30% of young people go on to university. Expansion is likely to continue following the recommendations of a national committee of inquiry (the Dearing Committee). The participation rate is known to vary substantially among social groups and between geographical areas. In this paper the participation rate is calculated using a new measure, the Young Entrants Index (YEI), and the extent of variation by region, gender and residential neighbourhood type established. The Super Profiles geodemographic system is used to facilitate the latter. This is shown to be a powerful discriminator and to offer great potential as an alternative analytical approach to the conventional social class categories, based on parental occupation, that have formed the basis of most participation studies to date.
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  • 2
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    Journal of geographical systems 1 (1999), S. 305-321 
    ISSN: 1435-5949
    Keywords: Key words: GIS, urban systems model, land use – transportation model, traffic analysis zone ; JEL classification: R11, R14, R41
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography
    Notes: Abstract. The main purpose of this paper is to explore a possible integration for the entire transportation modeling procedure – from data inventory to future demand forecasting – by implementing integrated land use and transportation models with a geographic information system (GIS). In order to make an integrated, procedural modeling system possible, Land Use and Transportation modeling system with GIS (LUTGIS) has been developed and presented in this paper.  There are four sub-systems in LUTGIS: (1) a data inventory system, (2) a traffic analysis zone generation system, (3) an integrated land use and transportation modeling system, and (4) a graphic user interface (GUI) system. Since the main target of this paper is to explore a possible way to create a viable system, LUTGIS integrates currently available and user-friendly computing technologies. For both transportation planners and administrative decision-makers, such an operable system is very desirable for sharing information so they may arrive at a consensus through the use of LUTGIS, an integrated land use and transportation modeling system.
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  • 3
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    Papers in regional science 78 (1999), S. 21-45 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Keywords: JEL classification: C52, R10, R12, R14, R39 ; Key words:New economic geography, spatial statistics, spatial modeling, methodology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Krugman states that “Regional science is not a unified subject. It is best described as a collection of tools.” Unfortunately such a perspective fails to fully acknowledge theoretical dimensions of the accompanying refocusing on geographic expressions of economic linkages, such as those highlighted in spatial externalities specifications. Such promulgated aspects of the spatial economic landscape relate to map pattern, and certainly the spatial statistics and spatial econometrics theory that accompanies it, as well as the underlying substantive theory garnered from a variety of sources. The principal implication is other than “loose- jointed, do-the-best-you-can theorizing”.
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  • 4
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    Papers in regional science 78 (1999), S. 111-116 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Economics
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  • 5
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    Papers in regional science 78 (1999), S. 117-118 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Economics
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  • 6
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    Papers in regional science 78 (1999), S. 157-177 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Keywords: JEL classification: R1, R12 ; Key words:Central place theory, choice rules, generalised Voronoi diagrams, market areas
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Although a variety of modifications of classical central place theory has been proposed, one area that remains unexplored is the effect of relaxing the nearest centre assumption for the purchase of a specified basket of goods within a given hierarchical level. This article examines the effect of such a relaxation on central place market areas by using higher-order Voronoi diagrams. When used to model market areas, higher-order Voronoi diagrams can be interpreted as overlapping and probabilistic regions. These diagrams construct market areas based on the assumption that consumers choose from a set of $k (k = 1, 2, \ldots, n)$ nearest centres of the same hierarchical level. If consumers are assumed to be indifferent between the k centres, the appropriate market areas are given by the order-k Voronoi diagram. In this case, it is shown that sales potentials are consistent with those that result when the nearest centre assumption is in effect. If consumers are assumed to have a preference for nearer centres, market areas are defined by the ordered, order-k Voronoi diagram. This situation generates sales potentials which can vary between centres.
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  • 7
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 1-26 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Spatiotemporal ; stochastic ; mapping ; Bayes ; entropy ; computational approach ; physical knowledge bases ; epistemology.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper is concerned with a computational formulation of the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) mapping method, which can handle rigorously and efficiently spatiotemporal applications of considerable practical importance. BME is a method of modern geostatistics that can integrate and process physical knowledge that belongs to two major bases: general knowledge (i.e., obtained from general principles and laws, summary statistics and background information), and specificatory knowledge (i.e., obtained through experience with the specific situation). BME allows considerable flexibility regarding the choice of an appropriate spatiotemporal map, offers a complete assessment of the mapping uncertainty and contributes to the scientific understanding of the underlying natural phenomenon. Valuable insight is gained by studying a spatiotemporal data set representing water-level elevations at the Equus Beds aquifer (Kansas). Numerical results show that, as was expected in theory, classical geostatistics analysis is obtained as a special case of the considerably more general BME approach. Moreover, modern geostatistical analysis in terms of BME offers more accurate and informative results in practice, by incorporating various sources of physical knowledge that cannot be processed by the classical methods.
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  • 8
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 27-47 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Stochastic environmental risk assessment considers the effects of numerous biological, chemical, physical, behavioral and physiological processes that involve elements of uncertainty and variability. A methodology for predicting health risks to individuals from contaminated groundwater is presented that incorporates the elements of uncertainty and variability in geological heterogeneity, physiological exposure parameters, and in cancer potency. An idealized groundwater basin is used to perform a parametric sensitivity study to assess the relative impact of (a) geologic uncertainty, (b) behavioral and physiological variability in human exposure and (c) uncertainty in cancer potency on the prediction of increased cancer risk to individuals in a population exposed to contaminants in household water supplied from groundwater. A two-dimensional distribution (or surface) of human health risk was generated as a result of the simulations. Cuts in this surface (fractiles of variability and percentiles of uncertainty) are then used as a measure of relative importance of various model components on total uncertainty and variability. A case study for perchloroethylene or PCE, shows that uncertainty and variability in hydraulic conductivity play an important role in predicting human health risk that is on the same order of influence as uncertainty of cancer potency.
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  • 9
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 66-84 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Velocity variability at scales smaller than the size of a solute plume enhances the rate of spreading of the plume around its center of mass. Macroscopically, the rate of spreading can be quantified through macrodispersion coefficients, the determination of which has been the subject of stochastic theories. This work compares the results of a volume-averaging approach with those of the advection dominated large-time small-perturbation theory of Dagan [1982] and Gelhar and Axness [1983]. Consider transport of an ideal tracer in a porous medium with deterministic periodic velocity. Using the Taylor-Aris-Brenner method of moments, it has been previously demonstrated [Kitanidis, 1992] that when the plume spreads over an area much larger than the period, the volume-averaged concentration satisfies the advection-dispersion equation with constant coefficients that can be computed. Here, the volume-averaging analysis is extended to the case of stationary random velocities. Additionally, a perturbation method is applied to obtain explicit solutions for small-fluctuation cases, and the results are compared with those of the stochastic macrodispersion theory. It is shown that the method of moments, which uses spatial averaging, for sufficiently large volumes of averaging yields the same result as the stochastic theory, which is based on ensemble averaging. The result is of theoretical but also practical significance because the volume-averaging approach provides a potentially efficient way to compute macrodispersion coefficients. The method is applied to a simplified representation of the Borden aquifer.
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  • 10
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 85-99 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Hydraulic diffusivity ; groundwater ; spectral analysis ; stochastic boundaries.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: This study uses the cyclical frequency to develop the mathematical relationship between hydraulic diffusivity and spectral density functions calculated from groundwater level variation. Such relationship can be applied to (1) unsteady state, one-dimensional confined aquifer with time-dependent water level on both end boundaries, and (2) linearized unconfined aquifer with or without vertical recharge. The spectral density functions of groundwater fluctuations are largely affected by the spectral density functions obtained from time-dependent end boundaries and their cross-spectral density functions. Hydraulic diffusivity of an aquifer can be solved by type-curve matching technique at a specified frequency band under the conditions of (1) confined aquifer having equal time-dependent boundaries on both ends, (2) unconfined aquifer having equal time-dependent boundaries on both ends with surface recharge, and (3) unconfined aquifer subjected to surface recharge but neglecting the water table fluctuations on both end boundaries.
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  • 11
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 113-130 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Climatology ; meso-scale convective systems ; classification ; anisotropy ; intermittency ; ergodicity ; upscaling ; level sets.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: The meta-Gaussian model is fitted to a set of 258 sahelian rainfields. The hypotheses underlying this model are discussed with a special emphasis on its ergodic properties, the scale of the phenomenon and the scale of observation. Then the ability of this model to reproduce some observed features, in particular upscaling properties, is checked from a distributional point of view. Finally, some simple properties of the thresholds which are linked to the area threshold method are described.
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  • 12
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 100-112 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Geostatistic ; Gaussian random functions ; anamorphosis ; intermittency ; discontinuous c.d.f ; valid covariance ; internal consistency.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: For the purpose of numerically studying sahelian storm rainfields, a family of random functions is described with a characterization of its finite dimensional law. Some problems appearing when fitting its functional parameters are put forward and two solutions to bypass those problems are provided, according to the regularity properties of the marginal cumulative distribution function. An illustration of this method is implemented on a set of sahelian rainfields of event accumulation displaying a strong spatial intermittency.
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  • 13
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 365-379 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. Conceptual model selection is a key issue in risk assessment studies. We analyze the effect of a number of conceptual aspects related to solute transport in two-dimensional heterogeneous media. The main issues addressed are non-ergodicity, anisotropy in the correlation structure of the transmissivity field, and dispersion at the local scale. In particular, we study the development of a solute plume when mean flow is oriented at an angle with respect to the principal directions of anisotropy. The study is carried out in a Lagrangian framework using Monte Carlo analysis. Of special interest is the evolution of individual plumes. A number of aspects are analyzed, namely the location of the center of mass for each plume and the different ways to compute the angles that the main axes of the plume develop with respect to the direction of the mean flow. Stochastic theories based upon ergodicity conclude that the plume gets oriented in the mean flow direction. In our non-ergodic simulations, the mean of the offset angles, for each individual plume in each particular realization, is offset from the mean flow direction towards the direction of maximum anisotropy. If, instead, the analysis is performed on the ensemble plume (superposition of all different simulations), it is then found oriented closer to the direction of the mean flow than the average offset angle for the different plumes considered separately. This last result adds an extra word of caution to the use of ensemble averaged values in solute transport studies. Serious implications for risk assessment follow from the conceptual model adopted. First, in any single realization there will a large uncertainty in locating the plume at any given time; second, real dilution would be less than what would be expected if the macrodispersion values obtained for ergodic conditions were applied; third, the volume that is affected by a non-zero concentration is smaller than that predicted from macrodispersion concepts; fourth, the orientation of the plume does not correspond to that of the mean flow; and fifth, accounting for local dispersion helps reducing uncertainty.
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  • 14
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 396-415 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. We analyze the movement of a solute cloud in a saturated aquifer, resulting from a point-like instantaneous solute injection. Physical heterogeneities of the medium due to spatial variations of the hydraulic conductivity, as well as the chemical heterogeneities due to variations in the linear adsorption coefficient and the degradation rate, are modeled as spatial stochastic processes with exponential autocorrelation functions. Furthermore, cross-correlations between the chemical properties and the conductivity are taken into account. For large transport times, the movement of the solute cloud is characterized by its center-of-mass velocity, by the macroscopic dispersion constant, and the macroscopic degradation rate. These quantities are evaluated using perturbation theory and two different averaging procedures. The first procedure derives the large-scale properties from the central moments of the concentration distribution in a given aquifer realization, and averages over the ensemble afterwards. The second method which is mathematically less demanding obtains large scale transport coefficients from the central moments of the ensemble-averaged concentration distribution. Under the assumption that both prescriptions lead to the same macro-scale quantities, the second approach is usually preferred in literature. The present paper is an extension of the work of Metzger et al. (1996). We show that the two averaging procedures lead to different results in one-dimensional systems, whereas the difference vanishes for higher dimensions. Taking into account the influence of small scale dispersion, we give explicit results for the macroscopic parameters characterizing the solute plume. We analyze the various contributions to these parameters and show how the physical origin of these contributions can be traced back uniquely to fluctuations in the retardation factor, in the flow field, and in the degradation rate, and to the cross-correlations between these inhomogeneities, respectively.
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  • 15
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 416-435 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Sequential linear estimator, successive linear estimator, conditional covariance, interpolation with large data sets.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. A sequential linear estimator is developed in this study to progressively incorporate new or different spatial data sets into the estimation. It begins with a classical linear estimator (i.e., kriging or cokriging) to estimate means conditioned to a given observed data set. When an additional data set becomes available, the sequential estimator improves the previous estimate by using linearly weighted sums of differences between the new data set and previous estimates at sample locations. Like the classical linear estimator, the weights used in the sequential linear estimator are derived from a system of equations that contains covariances and cross-covariances between sample locations and the location where the estimate is to be made. However, the covariances and cross-covariances are conditioned upon the previous data sets. The sequential estimator is shown to produce the best, unbiased linear estimate, and to provide the same estimates and variances as classic simple kriging or cokriging with the simultaneous use of the entire data set. However, by using data sets sequentially, this new algorithm alleviates numerical difficulties associated with the classical kriging or cokriging techniques when a large amount of data are used. It also provides a new way to incorporate additional information into a previous estimation.
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  • 16
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 48-65 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Excess relative risk model ; two-stage model ; Poisson random variable
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Several manuscripts have been published which implement regression methods or stochastic processes methodology to model the incidence of a variety of cancers obtained via epidemiologic studies of radiation exposure. Cancer incidence data obtained from the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort have been of particular interest due to the extensive amount of information available from numerous years of follow-up of the Japanese A-bomb survivors. Conventional methods of exploring goodness-of-fit within each model class have indicated that both types adequately fit the data, but the model predicted curves for excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) can vary dramatically. A simulation study is carried out to compare and contrast an excess relative risk regression model to a stochastic two-stage cancer model to determine the extent of the model predicted risk differences and why they occur.
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  • 17
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    Journal of geographical systems 1 (1999), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 1435-5949
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography
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  • 18
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    Journal of geographical systems 1 (1999), S. 3-22 
    ISSN: 1435-5949
    Keywords: Key words: Classification ; neural networks ; G15 ; JEL classification: C88 ; C63 ; C45 ; C44
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography
    Notes: Abstract. Neural Networks are now established computational tools used for search minimisation and data classification. They offer some highly desirable features for landuse classification problems since they are able to take in a variety of data types, recorded on different statistical scales, and combine them. As such, neural networks should offer advantages of increased accuracy. However, a barrier to their general acceptance and use by all but `experts' is the difficulty of configuring the network initially.  This paper describes the architectural problems of applying neural networks to landcover classification exercises in geography and details some of the latest developments from an ongoing research project aimed at overcoming these problems. A comprehensive strategy for the configuration of neural networks is presented, whereby the network is automatically constructed by a process involving initial analysis of the training data. By careful study of the functioning of each part of the network it is possible to select the architecture and initial weights on the node connections so the constructed network is `right first time'. Further adaptations are described to control network behaviour, to optimise functioning from the perspective of landcover classification. The entire configuration process is encapsulated by a single application which may be treated by the user as a `black box', allowing the network to the applied in much the same way as a maximum likelihood classifier, with no further effort being required of the user.
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  • 19
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    Journal of geographical systems 1 (1999), S. 37-60 
    ISSN: 1435-5949
    Keywords: Key words: Computational intelligence ; glacier hydrology ; genetic programming ; neural networks ; fuzzy logic ; self-organizing map ; JEL classification: C61 ; C63 ; C80
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography
    Notes: Abstract. Measurements of water pressure beneath Trapridge Glacier, Yukon Territory, Canada show that the basal water system is highly heterogeneous. Three types of behaviour were recorded: pressure records which are strongly correlated, records which are strongly anticorrelated, and records which alternate between strong correlation and strong anticorrelation. We take the pressure in bore-holes that are connected to the evacuation route for basal water as the forcing, and the other pressures as the response to this forcing. Previous work (Murray and Clarke 1995) has shown that these relationships can be modelled using low-order nonlinear differential equations optimized by inversion. However, despite optimizing the model parameters we cannot be sure that the final model forms are themselves optimal. Computational intelligence techniques provide alternative methods for fitting models and are robust to missing or noisy data, applicable to non-smooth models, and attempt to derive optimal model forms as well as optimal model parameters. Four computational intelligence techniques have been used and the results compared with the more conventional mathematical model. These methods were genetic programming, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic and self-organizing maps. We compare each technique and offer an evaluation of their suitability for modelling the pressure data. The evaluation criteria are threefold: (1) goodness of fit and an ability to predict subsequent data under different surface weather conditions; (2) interpretability, and the extent and significance of any new insights offered into the physics of the glacier; (3) computation time. The results suggest that the suitability of the computational intelligence techniques to model these data increases with the complexity of the system to be modelled.
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  • 20
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    Journal of geographical systems 1 (1999), S. 107-136 
    ISSN: 1435-5949
    Keywords: Key words: Statistical analysis ; spatial objects ; surface ; distribution ; JEL classification: C12 ; C14 ; C69
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography
    Notes: Abstract. This paper develops statistical methods for analyzing the distribution of spatial objects—points, convex polygons, and line segments—in relation to a surface. We propose statistics for measuring the relationship between the distribution of these objects and a surface and derive their expectations and variances under the null hypothesis that the objects are independently and randomly distributed. The statistics are approximately distributed according to the normal distribution under the null hypothesis, which enables us to test the significance of the spatial relationships statistically. Using the proposed methods, we empirically analyze the distribution of convenience stores in relation to the distribution of population in a suburb of Osaka, Japan. Some empirical findings are shown.
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  • 21
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    Journal of geographical systems 1 (1999), S. 23-35 
    ISSN: 1435-5949
    Keywords: Key words: Remote sensing ; fuzzi classification ; boundaries ; neural network ; JEL classification: C45 ; Q24 ; Q20
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography
    Notes: Abstract. Remote sensing is the only feasible means of mapping and monitoring land cover at regional to global scales. Unfortunately the maps are generally derived through the use of a conventional 'hard' classification algorithm and depict classes separated by sharp boundaries. Such approaches and representations are often inappropriate particularly when the land cover being represented may be considered to be fuzzy. The definition of boundaries between classes can therefore be difficult from remotely sensed data, particularly for continuous land cover classes which are separated by a fuzzy boundary which may also vary spatially in time. In this paper a neural network was used to derive fuzzy classifications of land cover along a transect crossing the transition from moist semi-deciduous forest to savanna in West Africa in February and December 1990. The fuzzy classifications revealed both sharp and gradual boundaries between classes located along the transect. In particular, the fuzzy classifications enabled the definition of important boundary properties, such as width and temporal displacement.
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  • 22
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    Papers in regional science 78 (1999), S. 243-263 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Keywords: JEL classification: R41 ; Key words:Logistics cost, consumer demand, retail establishment density, terminal, demand-supply interaction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This article develops models to formulate the optimal density of retail establishments by considering interactions between logistics cost and consumer demand. Commodities are assumed to be distributed from a depot directly or through single intermediate terminal to many retail establishments. Average logistic cost per item, consumer demand, and the interrelationship between them are analyzed. The optimal density of retail establishments and local terminals are determined by minimizing average logistic cost, or maximizing total supply subject to the demand-supply equality. The envelope curves for the optimal configuration strategies corresponding to different values of total market area and terminal cost are derived.
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    Papers in regional science 78 (1999), S. 297-318 
    ISSN: 1435-5957
    Keywords: JEL classification: R11 ; Key words:Information sector, specialization, city types
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The national economy is split into four broad sectors. The observed variation in long-term growth among sectors leads to a shift in the composition of aggregate demand. I test Henderson's propositions, namely that secular shifts in the composition of national demand lead to changes in the numbers and sizes of different types of urban places. The numbers and sizes of places specialized in the information sector has increased while the numbers and sizes of places specialized in manufacturing has decreased or has not changed. Metropolitan population growth and per capita earnings growth are enhanced by specialization in the information sector.
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  • 24
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    Journal of geographical systems 1 (1999), S. 137-153 
    ISSN: 1435-5949
    Keywords: Key words: Geographic information systems ; land use allocation ; generalized assignment problem ; multiobjective analysis ; JEL classification: Q15 ; Q24 ; R14 ; R52
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography
    Notes: Abstract. As geographic information systems (GIS) have moved from information storage and retrieval operations towards more decision support functions, there is a need for more integration of spatial analytical modules that can assist in locational decisions. This paper presents a methodology for coupling land use allocation models with a raster GIS. For raster systems, the integration of any decision module has been limited by the size of raster datasets that may contain hundreds of thousands of pixels. Therefore, decision heuristics have been used rather than exact methods such as mathematical programming models. For the problem of land use allocation, the special structure of the generalized assignment problem is used here to handle large scale datasets. The advantage of the mathematical programming approach is the additional information associated with the dual variables and opportunity costs that can be used in subsequent sensitivity analyses.
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  • 25
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    The annals of regional science 33 (1999), S. 183-195 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Better analysis and understanding of local and regional phenomena can result from large scale data built by a variety of local government agencies and private sector organizations. Reducing duplication and saving organizational resources are two main arguments for sharing geographic data and systems. This, however, is quite challenging and requires extensive interorganizational coordination. Drawing on existing literature and focusing primarily on local government settings, this paper reviews the major issues related to coordinated development and use of local geographic information systems and databases. These issues include motivation for sharing, coordination process, organizational factors, standardization and interoperability, cost of coordination, and mechanisms for GIS sharing.
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    The annals of regional science 33 (1999), S. 213-232 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Technical interoperability has provided geographic information communities with substantial improvements for constructing GIS capable of very low friction and dynamic data exchanges. These technical advances stand to provide substantial advantages for sharing geographic information, however reaping these advantages in highly heterogeneous operational and organizational environments requires the understanding and resolution of semantic differences. While the OpenGIS consortium has made important progress on technical interoperability, semantic interoperability still remains an unpassed hurdle for efforts to share geographic information across organizational and institutional boundaries at the local, regional, and other levels. Identifying and resolving semantic interoperability issues is especially pertinent for data sharing and considering future developments of standards. This paper presents an overview of semantic interoperability and through case studies shows the breadth and depth of issues and approaches in different countries and at different levels of organizations. These cases illustrate the importance of developing flexible approaches to practical data sharing problems that merge semantical with technical considerations. Based on our examinations of semantic issues and approaches in ongoing research projects, we propose cognitive, computer science, and socio-technical frameworks for examining semantic interoperability.
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    The annals of regional science 33 (1999), S. 491-510 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper aims at showing the relevance of the Italian experience to the current debate on regional convergence. Regional convergence of per capita GDP in Italy is analyzed for the period 1953–1993 using the Theil coefficient of concentration and a relationship with the process of national economic development is postulated. Two different phases are distinguished, with 1975 serving as a break-point. Different kinds of disaggregation of regional inequality are attempted and a separation index for groups of regions is calculated. The general conclusion is that after a period of strong convergence, which was limited to the years 1960–1975, the process of regional convergence stopped in Italy and since then a long-term tendency towards divergence has been verified. Both the process of national development and spatial factors are shown to have played an important role in the convergence process, suggesting that the identification of appropriate temporal and spatial disaggregation is a necessary condition in order to understand the regional growth process.
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    The annals of regional science 33 (1999), S. 425-438 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The regulatory framework under which the European transport network operates has changed significantly over the last 15 years. At the macro level the creation of the Single European Market has removed many of the institutional impediments to international transportation within European Union. At the meso level national governments have liberalised inter-city transport both by deregulation and privatisation. At the micro level city authorities have acted to introduce greater market incentives in the provision of local public transport. This paper is primarily concerned with the effects on economic efficiency of measures which have resulted in more liberalised markets at the local levels. In particular, it focuses on expanding the relatively scant empirical literature in this field by quantifying the impacts of major regulatory changes in two major European cities.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 61-68 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary At a special measuring site for boundary-layer studies as well as land-surface processes the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg of the German Weather Service (DWD) has recently put into operation a newly-desi gned phased-array SODAR/RASS, which has been developed by METEK on behalf of the DWD. This system provides the vertical profiles of the three-di mensional wind vector in the boundary layer on an operational basis and is furthermore suitable for getting information on the profile of virtual temperature up to about 400 m in height based on the addition of RASS components. The following paper describes both the technique of this SODAR/RASS and the various modes of operation as well as the different options in managing the system. First evaluations on the data availability concerning the maximum height coverage will give an impression on the system’s capabilities. Finally, the accuracy of the derived profiles of winds and temperature will be investigated by means of comparisons of the SODAR/RASS data with measurements of a six-sonde tethered-balloon system as well as meteorological data of a 99 m tower in the vicinity of the system.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 43-51 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Acoustic travel time tomography is demonstrated as a technique for remote monitoring of near surface air temperature and wind fields. An experimental procedure is presented which provides line-averaged values of the effective sound speed changing with air temperature and wind vector. In this study the travel times of sound signals at defined propagation paths between different acoustic sources and receivers were measured. The travel time data were inverted into effective sound speed values by using a special tomographic algorithm (Simultaneous Iterative Reconstruction Technique) to obtain area-averaged meteorological quantities (air temperature, wind speed). The method of acoustic travel time tomography will be applied to the atmosphere in order to directly provide spatially averaged data which are needed for evaluation of large-eddy simulation and microscale meteorological models as well as to complete conventional point measurements.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 81-89 
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    Notes: Summary A mobile RASS (Radio Acoustic Sounding System), which can be loaded onto a truck along with all the other equipment, including the power supply, was developed for atmospheric temperature measurement. Also, since it is necessary to avoid noise pollution in surrounding areas when conducting observations with the mobile RASS, a new method that allows measurement of the temperature profile up to about 200 m using a single acoustic pulse was devised. We discuss the development of a truck-mounted mobile RASS and the results of the first mobile observation conducted at various locations in the Tokyo area.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 69-79 
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    Notes: Summary A rigorous theoretical consideration of the parameters of a received signal for a RASS based on a radar wind profiler and operating in the “Bragg”-operation mode is performed. The calculation approach is based on solving the equations analytically for diffractive wave beams and takes into account diffraction effects in the Fresnel approxim ation for both radio and acoustic waves generated by antennas with finite sizes. It is shown that the errors due to the displacement of an acoustic source and horizontal wind are negligible for RASS based on a monostatic radar not only in the far-field but also in the transition zone between the Fresnel diffraction and far-field ranges at the lowest RASS operational heights.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 91-103 
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    Notes: Summary A wind‐profiling Doppler radar equipped with a radio acoustic sounding system (RASS) may be used to estimate the vertical profile of the vertical flux of heat in the atmosphere. Simultaneous measurements of the time‐varying temperature and vertical air velocity are combined to give the convective heat flux using the eddy‐correlation method. The accuracy of the estimates depends on the fundamental accuracy of the temperature and vertical velocity measurements. Also, in common with all eddy‐correlation methods, uncertainties are introduced by the need to define a suitable averaging time and to remove trends. A problem unique to RASS is the possible presence of ground and intermittent clutter at close ranges, which can cause errors in the vertical air velocity measurements. These considerations are discussed with particular reference to observations using a UHF radar wind profiler situated in an urban environment, where clutter is a serious problem. A Rank‐Order Signal Processing Algorithm (ROSPA) for recognizing and eliminating outliers in the vertical velocity, is introduced. It is explained how ROSPA uses both a minimum filter and a median filter on the velocity data. It is shown, using a comparison with nearly clutter free data from a rural site, that the filtering substantially improves the quality of the noisy urban data. The paper then compares RASS‐measured urban and rural heat flux profiles, along with the heat flux profile measured by an instrumented airplane. It is concluded that the main obstacles to RASS heat flux measurements are the effects of winds and turbulence in the boundary layer, rather than clutter.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1999), S. 205-222 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Notes: Summary Some aspects of internal gravity waves in the multicell-type convective system are examined using a linear theory and a nonlinear numerical model. The basic-state wind is assumed to increase linearly with height and then remain constant. In the theoretical part, the two-dimensional, linear, steady-state response of a stably stratified atmosphere to specified cooling representing the evaporative cooling of falling precipitation in the subcloud layer is analytically considered. It is shown that there exist an updraft on the upstream side of the cooling and a downdraft on the downstream side. As the wind shear increases enough, the magnitude of the updraft decreases. This is because a large portion of the specified cooling is used to compensate for the positive vorticity associated with the positive wind shear and accordingly the effective cooling necessary to produce perturbations is reduced. In the numerical part, a two-dimensional version of the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) that is a nonhydrostatic, compressible model with detailed physical processes is employed. Results from the dry simulation, in which the steady cooling is specified in the model, show that the simulated quasi-steady field resembles the linear, steady-state solution field because the nonlinearity factor of thermally-induced waves in this case is small. For the moist simulation, the quasi-steady perturbations obtained from the dry simulation are used as initial conditions. It is shown that gravity waces can effectively initiate convection even with small amplitude and that updraft at the head of the density current somewhat resembles the linear, steady-state response of a stably straified flow to the specified cooling. The updraft, that is, forced internal gravity waves, at the head of the density current is responsible for the initiation of consecutive convective cells that move downstream and develop as a main convective cell. This study suggests that internal gravity waves play a major role in the initiation of consecutive convective cells in the multicell-type convective system and hence in its maintenance.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 3-13 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary This paper presents a brief synopsis of past, current and anticipated progress and problems in the use of acoustic remote sensing for basic and applied research of the lower atmosphere. The potential and reality of the sodar for determination of meteorological parameters and turbulence characteristics is discussed. Sodars’ place alongside other ground-based remote sensors, including radar wind profilers, radioacoustic sounding systems (RASS) and lidars, is elucidated. Areas of atmospheric research where Doppler sodar has certain advantages are described such as cost, sensitivity, spatial and temporal resolution and surface layer measurements. The use of sodar in networks of integrated radar/RASS systems designed to supply uninterrupted monitoring of atmospheric parameters for improvements in forecasts of weather and air quality is demonstrated. The special potential role of sodar in education and training of specialists is suggested to aid in developing and using new methods of atmospheric measurements and meeting the requirements of modern environmental science. A number of problems are formulated whose solution would favor further advancement of acoustic remote sensing in integrated systems for remote monitoring of the atmospheric boundary layer.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 15-23 
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    Notes: Summary Pulse-compression, phase-encoding and chirp techniques are frequently used in EM systems to improve system performance. Simple averaging-over-range and averaging-over frequency schemes have been used in some SODAR systems, but generally code techniques are problematic because of the high fractional Doppler shift of 0–0.04. The principles of pulse code methods are reviewed with regard to their applicability to SODAR systems. In particular, detailed simulations are performed, using weather-like targets, of a comb of frequencies, a chirp, and a phase-encoding method. Three Doppler-adaptive matched filters are described, and two of these evaluated against the simulated noisy atmosphere. It is found that the comb of frequencies produces the least variance in estimated Doppler wind speed. A filter based on a single evaluation of an FFT for the received signal provides Doppler winds to about 1%. The Doppler-adaptive filters add little computational or hardware overhead, and produce as a simple output a best estimate of the wind speed component.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 25-34 
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    Notes: Summary A wavelet‐based technique is described for the processing of sodar signals. A two‐stage wavelet filtering process is used to emulate a matched‐filter receiver to optimize signal detectability. The process compresses the data required to produce accurate facsimile records by a factor of 256.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1999), S. 137-144 
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    Notes: Summary Using ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR analysis and reanalysis data sets, 6–9 day wave-like oscillations have been described in the African and tropical Atlantic troposphere during the summers of 1981 and 1985. In spite of several kinematic analogies, their structure was quite different from the African waves. In this paper we study the connection between the 6–9 day oscillations and the cloud cover with help of the ISCCP-Cl data set. The largest cloud cover oscillation (±30%) occurs in the 800–680 hPa layer, a maximum (minimum) is connected with a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation. The influence of the 6–9 day oscillation on horizontal water vapor flux and temperature is also displayed.
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    Notes: Summary The behaviour of the wind field at the confluence zone of Terra Nova Bay during a transition period from winter to summer is considered. To explain some observed features the influence of diurnal variations are considered to integrate and complete the analysis based on annual and seasonal variations. Diurnal variations in the buoyancy difference between two main air masses coming from the Revees and Priestley glaciers are assumed to contribute to diurnal alteration of the wind direction at the Nansen ice sheet. The data recorded at three automatic weather stations (AWS) available that period are analysed. Using the wavelet analysis procedure, it is shown that the contribution of one-day variations of some basic meteorological parameters and their gradients (in particular of temperature and pressure) is important and comparable with synoptic ones. On the base of the diurnal variations some aspects of the local circulation have been explained. The basis for the further studies related to the evolution of katabatic winds in this area are also presented.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 167-183 
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    Notes: Summary  Two-thirds of the land mass of Taiwan island is mountainous, which affects the airflow and precipitation systems over the island. In this study, we discuss the characteristics of precipitation systems when the prevailing wind direction is from the north-east during winter. Observations indicate that rainfall amounts were higher in northeastern Taiwan (the upstream side of the mountains) and that a rainfall shadow occurred in southwestern Taiwan. Simulation results from a non-hydrostatic model indicate that airflow was deflected in eastern Taiwan, while relatively high (low) pressure areas formed in eastern (western) Taiwan. A higher mixing ratio of rainfall occurred over northeastern Taiwan while lighter rainfall occurred in the eastern, and northwestern areas and the southern tip of Taiwan. This was consistent with the observational data except for the southern tip of Taiwan. Uplift due to the topography near the mountainous areas, as well as low level convergence near the coastal areas (due to the deceleration of an easterly wind in northeastern Taiwan), helped form the mixing ratio of rain. Transportation of the mixing ratio of rainfall, due to low level westward flow and upper level eastward flow, caused it to cover a larger area. The mixing ratio of rainfall formed in the upper mountainous areas in northeastern Taiwan if the upstream moisture content was reduced significantly. A temperature inversion at low levels resulted in a decrease in relative humidity and an increase in stability, requiring that the mixing ratio of rainfall should develop closer to the mountainous areas. If a low level wind blew parallel to the orientation of the mountains (NNE-SSW), a higher mixing ratio of rainfall could occur in the mountainous areas of western Taiwan.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 185-199 
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    Notes: Summary  A mesoscale convective system (MCS) case that developed over the Yellow Sea (12–13 July 1993) is studied by using a 23-level, 30 km-mesh Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model MM5. This MCS was generated in northern China, south of the Changma front, in a convectively unstable environment, under the influence of a short-wave trough accompanied by a marked cold vortex aloft. The model with all model physics (refereed to as CNTL) captured the major features of this MCS. A mesoscale low-level jet (mLLJ), with a horizontal scale of a few hundred km, developed within the MCS. Available wind data support the realism of this mLLJ. This mLLJ not only transports convectively unstable air directly toward the MCS but is also responsible for a strong low-level convergence in the MCS. At 200 hPa, an anticyclonic northwesterly flow with a relatively high wind speed core on the east of MCS was simulated. This relatively high-speed flow can be regarded as a mesoscale upper level jet (mULJ), acted as an upper outflow over the MCS. Low-level convergence on the left-front of the mLLJ and upper divergence in the right-rear of the mULJ creates a strong upward motion (≅ 40 cm s−1) in the MCS. Heavy precipitation up to 45 mm between 1800–2100 UTC was observed after this MCS landed on the southern Korean Peninsula. The CNTL run captured this heavy rainfall event. A maximum rainfall of 50 mm 3 h−1 was simulated. In another experiment, with surface sensible and moisture fluxes withheld (NOSF), the 3-h simulated rainfall was decreased to 30 mm. Less latent heat released in the NOSF led to a weaker MCS and mLLJ. The concurrent surface fluxes sustained a high low-level moisture field over the Yellow Sea, which helped the development of the MCS and enhanced its precipitation in this case.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 105-116 
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    Notes: Summary The temporal variability of thermal turbulence and vertical velocity derived from sodar measurements during periods of atmospheric free convection is studied using both spectral and wavelet analysis. A promising approach to analyse atmospheric processes, an advanced high-resolution spectrum estimation technique is described. Variance spectra of meteorological and turbulent parameters are shown to have their specific comb shape at a low-frequency range. Spectra and wavelet transforms of the data obtained at different sites both indicate the existence of some representative predominant temporal scales in time variations of the convective boundary layer structure. The most evident temporal scales revealed are centered around 7–9 and 18–22 minutes.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 117-125 
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    Notes: Summary The Austrian city of Graz at the south-eastern edge of the Alps frequently experiences wintertime stagnations during anticyclonic flow conditions, leading to high local concentrations of primary pollutants. This paper investigates the dominant three-dimensional local flow structures in the Graz region during a representative January stagnation period in 1998 using data obtained from a field experiment that supplemented the routine meteorological network with an array of sodars and tethersondes and a meteorological tower. Important modifications to the temperature and wind fields over Graz and its surroundings are attributed to both topographical and urban effects. The main modifications to the along-valley wind system in the Mur valley that runs through Graz from north to south are caused by near-surface temperature field differences between a warmer north and a cooler south part of the city and the regular development of a nighttime down-valley low-level jet and its upward lifting when crossing the city centre.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 127-132 
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    Notes: Summary The development of a convective boundary layer over the Antarctic Plateau is documented by a Doppler minisodar data-set recorded during a 10 day campaign in January 1997. The vertical velocities associated with thermals do not exceed 1 m/s, while the depth of the convective layer, usually less than 200 m, never surpasses 300 m. Measurements of momentum flux, sensible heat flux, wind speed and radiation budget show characteristics that are typical of a convective boundary layer evolution. The diurnal behaviour of absolute humidity, however, exhibits features that are not expected, e.g. anticorrelation with incoming net radiation and air temperature.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1999), S. 145-155 
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    Notes: Summary Southeastern Pacific blocking episodes are studied using 17 years of reanalyzed daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The anomalous sea level pressure (SLP) within the area bounded by the longitudes of 130° W and 100° W and the latitudes of 50° S and 70° S is used as the base variable to determine periods with 7 or more sequential days with positive anomalies in this domain. Using these periods, composites are calculated for the SLP and its anomalies, 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies and the 250-hPa and 925-hPa wind vectors in the western southern hemisphere (SH). Composites for austral winter and summer exhibit atmospheric circulation features quite similar to those associated with the blocking episodes in the southeastern Pacific. The corresponding composite patterns of the precipitable water (Pw) and 925-hPa temperature anomalies for the South American sector are also discussed. For both seasons blocking episodes in the southeastern Pacific change the distributions of these thermodynamic variables over South America, in particular in its southern and southeastern regions by reducing (increasing) the Pw and low-level temperature in the southern South America (the central part of the continent). Therefore, monitoring the southeastern Pacific circulation patterns may lead to improved weather forecast for the South American sector.
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    Notes: Summary An intercomparison of the characteristic features of the Indian summer monsoon has been carried out for the monsoon months (June to September) of 1995 using the mean monthly analyses/forecasts from the operational centres of ECMWF, JMA, UKMO and NCMRWF. This exercise was undertaken to determine how well the large scale monsoon features over India were reproduced in the operational output in 1995 and also to assess the performance of the NCMRWF assimilation/forecast system. For this purpose, precipitation, mean sea level pressure, circulation features in the lower (850 hPa) and upper (200 hPa) troposphere, mid-tropospheric (500 hPa) temperature, and latent heat flux were examined. It is found that all the dominant features of the Indian summer monsoon are fairly well represented in the analysis and medium range forecasts of the ECMWF, JMA and UKMO. The NCMRWF output agrees well with those from other centres except for a sharp gradient in precipitation across the west coast which was not captured well in the forecasts due to the relatively coarse horizontal resolution of the model compared to that used at other operational centres. Other important features of the southwest monsoon, like the heat low over the northwestern part of the country, the lower level westerly jet and upper level easterly jet etc. are found to be reasonably well represented in the output of all operational centres. The JMA analyses and forecasts possessed greater levels of moisture compared to the NCMRWF output possibly due to the synthetic moisture information used at JMA. The evolution characteristics of the summer monsoon onset over the southern tip of India are found to be comparable in the output of JMA and NCMRWF.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1999), S. 179-193 
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    Notes: Summary Daily 500-hPa geopotential height and 250-hPa meridional wind reanalyzed data obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are used to document austral winter (May to September) and summer (November to March) high-frequency variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) midlatitudes for the 1990–1994 period. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique is used to determine the high-frequency patterns for these variables in selected areas. The high-frequency anomalous 500-hPa geopotential height patterns for two areas in the SH midlatitudes (the zonally global domain and the western hemisphere) and the high-frequency anomalous 250-hPa meridional wind patterns in the western hemisphere between 15° N and 70° S are discussed. The high-frequency winter and summer patterns for both variables feature a wavetrain structure in the SH midlatitudes which is related to synoptic-scale systems, such as cyclones and anticyclones associated with frontal zones. The dominant high-frequency patterns in the SH midlatitudes manifest in the eastern hemisphere while the secondary ones appear in the southeastern Pacific. Analysis of the western hemisphere data reveal that the wavetrain in the South American sector extends northeastward over the continent, thus affecting the regional weather conditions. An important result presented here concerns the preference of the intense synoptic systems in the eastern hemisphere and in the southeastern Pacific to occur in a sequential instead of an intermittent fashion. This result might have a potential for being used in weather monitoring.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1999), S. 195-203 
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    Notes: Summary In this study a search for teleconnection is made between the Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) through the correlation analysis approach. Monthly grid-point 50 hPa geopotential height data and the June to September IMR are used for the period 1958–1990. Analysis reveal that there are domains over the Northern Hemisphere where the variation of the geopotential heights during the preceding months of the monsoon period are related with the interannual behaviour of the IMR. During January and February significant positive correlations are seen along the lower latitudes (10°–20° N). However, the maximum relationship is seen during March, with high positive correlations over the Canadian sector and negative correlations over the east Asian sector. The correlation configuration weakens considerably, once the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) cases are excluded, suggesting that the correlation pattern obtained may be a manifestation of the ENSO cycle. Implications of these results in the long range forecasting of IMR are also discussed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1999), S. 239-242 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1999), S. 223-230 
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    Notes: Summary In addition to global solar radiationE ↓ g , the hourly diffuse componentE ↓ d incident on a horizontal surface has been measured from February 1993 to January 1995 at a meteorological station in tropical West Africa. The measured diffuse solar irradiance data was corrected for shadow band effects. The monthly mean diurnal variations of diffuse solar irradiance obtained for identical months in the two years have been compared and found to be generally consistent. The corresponding monthly mean hourly values ofE ↓ d for identical months in 1993 and 1994 agreed to within 9% while yielding correlation coefficients greater than 0.960. In addition, the monthly mean daily totals ofE ↓ d for identical months were found to agree mostly to within 6% and showed virtually the same annual variations in both years. The monthly mean daily total values of diffuse solar radiation for most months in the two years ranged between 7.94 MJm−2d−1 and 10.50 MJm−2d−1. The monthly mean of daily hourly maximum values ofE ↓ d obtained for identical months in the two years have been discussed in relation to the dominant atmospheric conditions during these months. The results been presented here have been compared with those of some investigators within and outside the Africa region.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 69 (1999), S. 231-237 
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    Notes: Summary In this paper, based on the data at 162 stations selected over China from 1960 to 1991 the climatic noise and potential predictability of monthly mean temperature have been studied. The method of estimating climatic noise is based on the idea of Yamamoto et al. (1985) and the potential predictability is expressed by the ratio of the estimated inter-annual variation to the estimated natural variation (or climatic noise). Generally the climatic noise of monthly mean temperature increases with latitude and altitude and varies with season. The continental air from Siberia and Mongolia plays a significant role and the ocean acts as an adjustor and a reductor in the climatic noise except for the tropical Pacific ocean in transitional season. The potential predictability is diversified from month to month and one station to another, but generally the monthly mean temperature over China is potentially predictable at statistical significance level 0.10. The results suggest that we could not ask a climate model to predict the climate with satisfactory results worldwide in all seasons and that the regional model could be a hopeful way to predict the climate.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 29-42 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  The extreme precipitation event of 11 to 16 February 1996 was one of four significant events during the 1995/96 rainfall season over southern Africa. Extensive flooding and related damage was recorded at this time, with historical records showing one of the highest flood peaks of the past century. This extreme event is analysed using a combination of mesoscale numerical modelling and Lagrangian trajectory analysis, allowing a comprehensive three-dimensional reconstruction of the associated atmospheric structure and its evolution. The adjustments in the circulation patterns as well as the timing and contribution of different moisture source regions are clearly important in influencing the duration and intensity of this extreme rainfall event over southern Africa. The moisture that contributed to precipitation during the event, as well as to the south-western part of the country, was imported mainly from the Indian Ocean tothe east and south-east, suggesting that the equatorial Indian Ocean may not be the predominant source of moisture as previously believed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 15-27 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  Although variability is a fundamental aspect of the climate system, the interaction of different time scales of variability remains difficult to assess and verbalize. Two well-documented examples of tropical variability on different time scales are the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Using the fifteen-year ECMWF Re-analysis (ERA) data archive and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data, some of the ENSO modulations of the intraseasonal MJO are examined. During El Ni˜o years, the MJO convection is able to propagate farther eastward into the central Pacific than it typically does during normal years. The corresponding intraseasonal circulation anomalies are similarly translated farther east. However, not all changes are this straight forward; for example, MJO convection is found to occur within westerly wind bursts during the Normal years, but somewhat ahead of the winds during El Ni˜o. ENSO-induced changes to the large-scale upper-tropospheric state provide different environments for outflow from MJO convection across the North Pacific. During the El Niño years, the eastward shift of the local Hadley circulation means that MJO convection must propagate farther east to reach an environment in which its meridional outflow can produce an appropriate Rossby wave source for the extension of the east Asian jet and subsequent midlatitude height falls.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 1-14 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  This study explores the nowcasting and short-range forecasting (up to 3 days) skills of rainfall over the tropics using a high resolution global model. Since the model-predicted rainfall is very sensitive to model parameters, four key model parameters were first selected. They are the Asselin filter coefficient, the fourth order horizontal diffusion coefficient, the surface moisture flux coefficient, and the vertical diffusion coefficient. The optimal values were defined as those which contributed to the best one day rainfall forecasts in the present study. In order to demonstrate and improve the precipitation forecast skill, several numerical experiments were designed using the 14-level Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM) at a resolution of T106. Comparisons were also made of the short-range forecasts obtained from a control experiment subjected to normal mode initialization (NMI) versus experiments based on physical initialization (PI). The latter experiments were integrated using the original FSUGSM and a modified version. This modified FSUGSM was developed here by applying a reverse cumulus parameterization alorithm to the regular forecast model, which restructures the vertical humidity distribution and constrains the large-scale model’s moisture error growth during the model integration. An improved short-range rainfall prediction skill was achieved from the modified FSUGSM in this study. The results showed a better agreement between model-based and observed rainfall intensity and pattern.
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    Notes: Summary  A prognostic three-dimensional Eulerian model for the simulation of summer smog was implemented which fully couples meteorological processes and gas phase chemistry. The model includes modules for atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric turbulence, transport, gas-phase chemistry, short- and long-wave radiation transfer, and surface interactions, including emission and deposition of trace gases. The model was tested in a numerical study of 29–30 July 1993 on the Swiss Plateau and compared to the data of the POLLUMET measurement campaign. Model results were found to be in good agreement with measurements. The model revealed a complex interaction of long range transport, dispersion of plumes from urban areas, and local influences of the complex Swiss topography on local wind systems, and local ozone concentration maxima during that episode.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 71-80 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  Nonlinear waves in a stratified atmosphere with basic uniform flow are studied by adopting geostrophic momentum approximation (cf. Hoskins, 1975) and the method of travelling wave solution. A nonlinear equation containing a unique variable of vertical p velocity is derived from a complete system of equations considering frictionless and adiabatic fluid. The stability of the solution for the nonlinear equation is discussed then. Furthermore, the approximate cnoidal wave solution, solitary wave solution and their existence condition are obtained.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 111-118 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  In this paper the modulation of storm and depression tracks over North Indian Ocean by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of zonal winds in the equatorial stratosphere is discussed for the period 1953–1991. It was observed that during post monsoon season the storms and depressions of Bay of Bengal were mostly confined to south of 17° N and move in west/North-westward direction during easterly phase of QBO. However during the westerly phase no such similar type influence of QBO on the system tracks was observed. Also such type of QBO-System tracks association was not observed during pre-monsoon season.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 201-213 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  The role of the cross equatorial flow from the southern Indian Ocean on the Indian Summer monsoon is examined using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) data for the period January 1982 to December 1994. A comparison of NCEP/NCAR data with the satellite data retrieved from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) sensor onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) exhibited a negative bias for the wind speeds greater than 4 m/s. whereas in the case of specific humidity, SSMI values exhibited a positive bias and the precipitable water derived from the satellite data exhibited a negative bias. The NCEP reanalysis is able to depict the mean annual cycle of both the cross equatorial flow and moisture flow into the Indian subcontinent during the monsoon season, but it fails to depict these differences during excess (1983, 1988, 1994) and deficit monsoon (1982, 1986, 1987) composites. Further, it is seen that inter hemispheric flow far exceeds the excess moisture available over the Arabian Sea indicating that it is the cross equatorial flow which decides the fate of the Indian summer monsoon.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 131-161 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Renormalization ; random fields ; effective ; permeability ; preasymptotic.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The heterogeneity of the subsurface permeability is considered as the most influential factor in determining groundwater flow and the transport of toxic contaminants. Numerical simulators cannot handle the large grids required to represent the small-scale variability of permeability, and thus explicit estimates of the large-scale behavior in terms of coarse-grained parameters are often required. Perturbation formulations of the effective permeability are based on simplifying assumptions that are valid only for certain probability distributions and weak heterogeneity. A generalized perturbation ansatz that involves higher orders has been proposed (Gelhar and Axness, 1983), but to our knowledge its validity has not been rigorously proved before in three dimensions. In this work we propose a general upscaling formulation valid for strong heterogeneity, general permeability distributions, and media with impermeable zones. We show that the effective permeability is determined by the self-energy series of the permeability fluctuations at zero frequency. Using the diagrammatic representation, we obtain a Dyson equation that involves only irreducible diagrams of the proper self-energy series. We develop a renormalization group (RG) analysis for isotropic lognormal media that proves the generalized perturbation ansatz to all orders. We show that the RG result accurately estimates laboratory permeability measurements in limestone (strong heterogeneity) and sandstone (weak heterogeneity). We also propose an explicit RG estimate for the preasymptotic effective permeability. We compare our results with an approach based on a leading order Green's function expansion (Paleologos et al., 1996), which, however, requires intensive numerical computations. Finally, we investigate the relation between the RG expression and the algebraic means used in numerical upscaling.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 183-200 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Negative Binomial distribution ; Flood Frequency Analysis ; Occurrence process ; Monte Carlo simulation ; Waiting Time distribution.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. The idea of an over-threshold sampling is to retain all the events of a time-series exceeding a given threshold. The probabilistic analysis implies estimating two statistical models, one describing the occurrence of the events (date of the events), the other describing their magnitude (value of the local maximum). These two models are then combined to obtain the distribution of the annual maxima. A well-known result of a Poisson process is that waiting time, defined as the duration between two successive events exceeding the threshold, is exponentially distributed. The assertion that the waiting time of a Negative Binomial process is also exponentially distributed seems to be in obvious contradiction with the Poisson process properties. A theoretical discussion and Monte-Carlo simulations are presented to solve this apparent paradox.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 201-216 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Bayesian methods ; climatic variability ; change-point ; Bayes factor ; time series ; hydrology.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. Inference about the existence and characteristics of changes in mean level of hydrometeorological sequences that may be generated by climatic variability is an important step before developing management rules in water resources systems. This paper presents a Bayesian approach, based on a single shifting model, which can be used to study a change in the mean level of a set of independent normal random variables. Two different problems are considered: the first is the detection of a change, while the second is the estimation of the change-point and its amplitude under the assumption that a change has occurred. This method is applied to precipitation and runoff data series over eastern Canada and U.S. during the twentieth century. The main results show an increase in the late sixties in the Eastern North American precipitation. This supports conclusions drawn from a number of studies which identified the late sixties to early seventies as a period of possible change.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 161-182 
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    Keywords: Key words: stochastic simulation ; space of uncertainty ; flow simulator ; ergodic fluctuations.
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract.  Geostatistical simulation algorithms are routinely used to generate conditional realizations of the spatial distribution of petrophysical properties, which are then fed into complex transfer functions, e.g. a flow simulator, to yield a distribution of responses, such as the time to recover a given proportion of the oil. This latter distribution, often referred to as the space of uncertainty, cannot be defined analytically because of the complexity (non-linearity) of transfer functions, but it can be characterized algorithmically through the generation of many realizations. This paper compares the space of uncertainty generated by four of the most commonly used algorithms: sequential Gaussian simulation, sequential indicator simulation, p-field simulation and simulated annealing. Conditional to 80 sample permeability values randomly drawn from an exhaustive 40×40 image, 100 realizations of the spatial distribution of permeability values are generated using each algorithm and fed into a pressure solver and a flow simulator. Principal component analysis is used to display the sets of realizations into the joint space of uncertainty of the response variables (effective permeability, times to reach 5% and 95% water cuts and to recover 10% and 50% of the oil). The attenuation of ergodic fluctuations through a rank-preserving transform of permeability values reduces substantially the extent of the space of uncertainty for sequential indicator simulation and p-field simulation, while improving the prediction of the response variable by the mean of the output distribution. Differences between simulation algorithms are the most pronounced for long-term responses (95% water cut and 50% oil recovery), with sequential Gaussian simulation yielding the most accurate prediction. In this example, utilizing more than 20 realizations generally increases only slightly the size of the space of uncertainty.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 217-230 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Transport in porous media ; random media ; travel time ; well protection zones ; numerical methods ; probabilistic models.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. We consider the effect of randomly heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity on the spatial location of time-related capture zones (isochrones) for a non-reactive tracer in the steady-state radial flow field due to a pumping well in a confined aquifer. A Monte Carlo (MC) procedure is used in conjunction with FFT-based spectral methods. The log hydraulic conductivity field is assumed to be Gaussian and stationary, with isotropic exponential correlation. Various degrees of domain heterogeneity are considered and stability and accuracy of the MC procedure is examined. The location of an isochrone becomes uncertain due to heterogeneity, and it is strongly influenced by hydraulic conductivity variance. The probability that a particle released at a point in the aquifer is pumped by the well within a given time is identified. We propose a new expression for the probabilistic spatial distribution of isochrones, which is formally similar to the analytical solution for a uniform medium and takes into account the effects of heterogeneity.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 251-259 
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The importance of the Gumbel probability distribution for the description of extreme hydrologic events is examined in this article. The key findings of this work are: (1) an iterative method of least squares was developed and found to be well-suited for the efficient fitting of the two-parameter Gumbel distribution to hydrologic extremes; (2) negative truncation is necessary to adequately describe hydrologic minima (non-negative) data, while the standard Gumbel distribution for maxima is well-suited for modeling extreme (large) hydrologic events; (3) the distribution function of the sum of two independent Gumbel variables, of importance in hydrology, has been derived and successfully applied to spring flow data. Several examples that involve the modeling of hydrologic extremes are presented and analyzed.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 231-250 
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In response to recent activity and legislation concerning lead and its role in electric vehicle development, a model has been developed to assess the health risks to residents from environmental lead emissions. This model may be used to predict the risks to residents in the vicinity of facilities discharging lead into the air. This model is also important for risk management, allowing for risk-based regulations regarding limits on lead emissions. The model is comprehensive, linking together a source term, air dispersion model, household exposure model, physiologically-based pharmakokinetic blood-lead model, and a determination of reference dose. Parameters are treated as distributions, and are considered either uncertain or variable. A range of physiological and behavioral parameters are used to distinguish between various age and gender groups, to reflect the variability in risk of adverse effect to these subsets of the exposed population. A sensitivity study is performed, including a case considering the uncertainty in reference dose which is compared to the case of a deterministic reference dose. Different types of variability are investigated, the variability across sensitive sub-populations of age and gender, and the individual variability within these populations. We found that the differentiation between uncertainty and variability in predicting non-cancer risk human health risk was important, and that methods that combined uncertainty and variability were not expected to be protective to sensitive individuals within a sub-population.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 260-287 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words soil contamination assessment ; pollution sources ; multivariate statistical analysis ; geographic information systems
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The assessment of soil heavy metal contamination and the quantification of its sources and spatial extent represent a serious challenge to the environmental scientists and engineers. To date, statistical and spatial analysis tools have been used successfully to assess the amount and spatial distribution of soil contamination. However, these techniques require vast amounts of samples and a good historical record of the study area. Furthermore, they cannot be applied in cases of complex or poorly recorded contamination and provide only a qualitative assessment of the pollution sources. The author has developed a methodology that combines statistical and geostatistical analysis tools with geographic information systems for the quantitative and spatial assessment of contamination sources. This paper focuses on the techniques that may be employed to explore the structure of a soil data set. Soil contamination data from Lavrio old mine site in Greece were used to illustrate the methodology. Through the research, it was found that principal component and factor analysis tools delineate the principal processes that drive pollution distribution. However, the spatial assessment and quantification of multiple pollution sources cannot be resolved. This aspect is explored in detail in the second paper of the series, focusing on the exploitation of principal component and factor analysis results as inputs for canonical correlation, geostatistical analysis and geographic information systems tools.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 317-326 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Characteristic function ; cumulant ; statistic ; marked point process ; filtered point process ; basin-response function.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. This work presents the derivation of general streamflow cumulants from daily rainfall time series. The general streamflow cumulants can be used to compute basic streamflow statistics such as mean, variance, coefficient of skewness, and correlation coefficient. Streamflow is considered as a filtered point process where the input is a daily rainfall time series assumed to be a marked point process. The marks of the process are the daily rainfall amounts which are assumed independent and identically distributed. The number of rainfall occurrences is a counting process represented by either the binomial, the Poisson, or the negative binomial probability distribution depending on its ratio of mean to variance. The first three cumulants and the covariance function of J-day averaged streamflows are deduced based on the characteristic function of a filtered point process. These cumulants are functions of the stochastic properties of the daily rainfall process and the basin-response function representing the causal relationship between rainfall and runoff.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 288-316 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words Soil contamination assessment ; pollution sources ; multivariate statistical analysis ; geographic information systems.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In recent years, soil contamination assessment studies have aimed to quantify the extent and identify its sources. However, the quantification of the contributions to pollution from different sources still represents a serious challenge to the environmental scientists and engineers. Statistical and spatial analysis tools have been used successfully to assess the volume and spread of soil contamination. The techniques suggested so far require good historical record of the study area in addition to the large amounts of soil quality data that need to be collected. Furthermore, they are only able to identify/provide a qualitative description of the pollution sources and do not guaranty convincing results in cases of complex or poorly recorded contamination. Research described in this paper has developed a methodology that combines statistical and geostatistical analysis tools with geographic information systems for the quantitative and spatial assessment of contamination sources. In a previous paper, principal component and factor analysis tools where shown to successfully explore the physical processes behind pollution. This information is proven invaluable in the design of canonical correlation analysis for the soil contamination data, so that distinctive pollution sources are separated quantitatively. The geostatistical analysis tools in conjunction with geographic information systems address the spatial dimension of the data and the pollution sources. The practical aspects of the methodology are illustrated using soil contamination data from Lavrio old mine site in Greece.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 327-336 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: eutrophication ; reservoir water quality ; fuzzy theory.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. A general methodology for fuzzy synthetic evaluation is developed and illustrated with a case study of trophic status assessment for Fei-Tsui Reservoir in Taiwan. The historical data base was collected from the management agency of Fei-Tsui Reservoir from 1987 to 1996. In fuzzy synthetic evaluation, the classification is determined by a matrix operation of the weighted vector with the fuzzy evaluation matrix. After all individual membership functions of evaluated factors have been determined, the fuzzy evaluation matrix can be established. The weighted vector is determined by the analytic hierarchy process method (AHP). The results of this investigation show that the long-term change of water quality and the overturn phenomena cannot be observed with the Carlson index from 1987 to 1992 but is expressed by fuzzy synthetic evaluation. Fuzzy synthetic evaluation is better suited than the Carlson index to rating the trophic status of self-sustaining lakes. Interpretation of the results can provide valuable information to decision makers and aid reservoir management.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 337-364 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: karst hydrology ; floods ; kernel identification ; nonlinear models ; Volterra expansions.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. Karstic formations function as three-dimensional (3D) hydrological basins, with both surface and subsurface flows through fissures, natural conduits, underground streams and reservoirs. The main characteristic of karstic formations is their significant 3D physical heterogeneity at all scales, from fine fissuration to large holes and conduits. This leads to dynamic and temporal variability, e.g. highly variable flow rates, due to several concurrent flow regimes with several distinct response times. The temporal hydrologic response of karstic basins is studied here from an input/output, systems analysis viewpoint. The hydraulic behaviour of the basins is approached via the relationship between hydrometeorological inputs and outputs. These processes are represented and modeled as random, self-correlated and cross-correlated, stationary time processes. More precisely, for each site-specific case presented here, the input process is the total rainfall on the basin and the output process is the discharge rate at the outlet of the basin (karstic spring). In the absence of other data, these time processes embody all the available information concerning a given karstic basin. In this paper, we first present a brief discussion of the physical structure of karstic systems. Then, we formulate linear and nonlinear models, i.e. functional relations between rainfall and runoff, and methods for identifying the kernel and coefficients of the functionals (deterministic vs. statistical; error minimisation vs. polynomial projection). These are based mostly on Volterra first order (linear) or second order (nonlinear) convolution. In addition, a new nonlinear threshold model is developed, based on the frequency distribution of interannual mean daily runoff. Finally, the different models and identification methods are applied to two karstic watersheds in the french Pyrénées mountains, using long sequences of rainfall and spring outflow data at two different sampling rates (daily and semi-hourly). The accuracy of nonlinear and linear rainfall-runoff models is tested at three time scales: long interannual scale (20 years of daily data), medium or seasonal scale (3 months of semi-hourly data), and short scale or “flood scale” (2 days of semi-hourly data). The model predictions are analysed in terms of global statistical accuracy and in terms of accuracy with respect to high flow events (floods).
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 13 (1999), S. 381-395 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Decision analysis, maximum expected monetary value (MEMV), catastrophic scenarios, relative importance.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract. We evaluate the application of various statistical measures for the identification of optimal financial strategies in environmental projects that may be burdened by the consequences of low-probability, high-cost events. Our particular application lies in the area of transport and burial of hazardous and radioactive wastes but our approach applies to a wide range of problems where the utility structure is of the form of gains minus losses, and where limited and/or catastrophic failures may be encountered. We utilize four statistical measures, the expected value, variance, volatility and cumulative probability to compare the outcomes of limited and catastrophic spills. The maximum expected monetary value which is frequently used in the environmental and gas and oil industries as the sole criterion for the selection of optimum actions is seen to lead to erroneous decisions and fails to unambiguously differentiate the economic consequences of limited and catastrophic failures in a project. We demonstrate that unwarranted inclusion of catastrophic scenarios into the decision-making analysis can substantially alter the perspective of a project and guide a corporation away from an investment that could be profitable even under a limited liability case. We conclude by providing a decision-making procedure for cases where the probabilities associated with future events and/or the monetary returns are characterized not by sharp estimates but rather are represented by a range of values.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 133-138 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary A REMTECH PA2 Doppler Sodar is operated regularly at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) observatory in Prague, collocated with a routine rawinsonde sounding system. The Air Pollution Control Division of CHMI utilises the sodar data in air pollution studies and as an information support for the smog warning system operated in Prague. Besides of the basic software for echo strength and wind profile evaluation, optional routines for deriving parameters such as inversion and mixing height, stability class etc. were delivered by the sodar manufacturer. Based on a sufficiently large data set (more than one year) of synchronous sodar and rawinsonde measurements, an analysis and comparison of inversion and mixing heights provided by both sounding systems have been accomplished in order to evaluate the correctness and accuracy of sodar estimates of these parameters. In contrast to the wind speed and wind direction data, for which a satisfactory agreement with other kind of measurements has been reported by many studies, the results for inversion and mixing height detection were totally disappointing. A direct applicability of inversion height and mixing height data provided by the REMTECH’s automatic routines in air pollution studies or smog warning systems is quite problematical with the present “state of the art”.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 157-168 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary ¶A methodology has been developed to assimilate satellite-measured rainfall during the initial phase of model integration for extended range monsoon prediction. The vertical profiles of latent heating corresponding to different rain rates have been derived from the model statistics. These heating rates have been assimilated through nudging in the thermodynamics equation of the model. This procedure of assimilating observed heating has corrected the simulation of heating location in the model and consequently removed the anomalous sinking motion over Indian landmass. With the correction of vertical circulation, both mean July rainfall over India and the distribution have improved. Interannual variability has been brought out for the years 1987 and 1988. In view of the availability of rainfall profile from Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) there is a scope of adopting this method of assimilating observed rainfall, for extended range monsoon prediction.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 139-155 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  The present paper investigates the potential of combining image processing techniques based on cluster analysis of infrared (IR) Meteosat images with dynamic meteorological theory on synoptic systems. From this last point of view the highest probability of deep convective development is favoured where the overlapping of four mechanisms acting at synoptic scale is produced: upward quasi-geostrophic forcing, convergence of water vapour at low levels, convective instability in the lower troposphere and great convective available potential energy. Cloud tracking is performed over sequences of Meteosat IR images by using a shape parameterisation approach after appropriate filtering for non-significant clouds and automated identification of convective systems. The integrated methodology is applied to the case study of the heavy rainfall event which produced floods in the South of France and the North of Italy on September 27–28th, 1992. The analysis focuses on the monitoring and explanation of the zones most affected by heavy rainfall with the aim of investigating possible improvements of the predictive potential of cloud tracking and allowing identification of the areas which most lend themselves to flash floods for use in operational flood forecasting applications.
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  • 75
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    Notes: Summary  A convective case producing heavy precipitation in the western Mediterranean region, characterized by pronounced upper level forcing and main rainfall over the sea, is studied. On the day of the event (September 28th, 1994), more than 140 mm of precipitation were recorded in coastal lands of eastern Spain, and 180 mm were estimated over the sea with radar data. Synoptically, the case appears to combine warm and moist easterly advection at low levels, typically observed in torrential rainfall events of the region, with a less common strong upper level dynamical forcing. A set of mesoscale numerical simulations using the Hirlam model is performed to investigate the mechanisms responsible for the convection development, and to assess the influence of the orography on the rainfall field. Model output diagnosis indicates that in addition to the lower level forcing, a two-jets interaction is decisive for the triggering and driving of the convection during the event. Moreover, a non-topographic simulation reveals a relatively weak influence of the orography on this event when compared with other similar heavy precipitation cases in eastern Spain. Previous studies have shown an orographic influence of more than 90% on the rainfall whereas in this case about 50% of the precipitation over the area is attributed to the orographic forcing. The study is extended with an analysis of the individual effects of the Atlas and Iberian Peninsula, by means of a factor separation technique. It is shown that the Atlas range induces a redistribution of the precipitation over the Mediterranean, whereas local enhancements can be attributed to the Iberian topography.
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  • 76
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    Notes: Summary ¶A scheme for calibrating an ensemble of wind fields computed by a mesoscale model in order to generate synthetic wind statistics is described. It is based on two main points. The first is to exploit the power of a mesoscale model to determine wind fields over complex terrain for different weather situations classified by cluster analysis. The second is to use all the information in the cluster analysis, i.e., the centroid values as well as the internal standard deviations of the clusters, to determine a cluster space distribution at each grid point in the model domain. The latter makes calibration possible if reliable measurements are available at the position of one of the grid points. The accuracy of the calibration is increased by splitting the cluster spaces into several parts. Combining both the modelled mesoscale wind fields and the method of split cluster spaces leads to a spatial transformation of the calibration from the calibration point to each grid point in the model domain. A validation of the scheme is carried out with measurements at grid points other than the calibration point and reveals remarkable improvements in the accuracy of the model wind statistics, especially with regard to wind speed distributions.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 205-228 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  Simulations alternatively assuming a real landscape with and without open-pit mines and grown settlements were performed with a non-hydrostatic meteorological model of the meso-β-scale to elucidate whether the atmospheric response to such land-use changes is sensitive to the direction and magnitude of geostrophic wind. The results of simulations with the same geostrophic wind conditions substantiate that the daily domain-averages of the variables of state hardly differ for the different landscape realizations, except for cloud- and precipitating particles. However, land-use changes may significantly affect the local conditions over and downwind of the altered surfaces. The significant differences in the cloud- and precipitating particles, however, are not bound to the surroundings of land-use changes. The vertical component of wind vector, which is modified by the different heating of converted land-use, strongly affects cloud- and precipitation formation by the interaction cloud microphysics-dynamics. The magnitude of atmospheric response changes under the various directions and speeds of geostrophic wind for most of the field quantities and fluxes.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 229-242 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary ¶On August the 11th, 1999 Central Europe saw a spectacular astronomical event, a total solar eclipse. We present a model study concerning the meteorological effects of this eclipse in central Europe using the state-of-the-art limited area forecast model Deutschland-Modell DM from the German Weather Service DWD. Under typical summer radiation conditions very strong anomalies in the surface energy flux and temperature in screen height are simulated. The main temperature signal in the lower troposphere is delayed by about one hour with respect to the surface. Furthermore it is connected with a well defined dynamical signal which is reminiscent to a large scale land – sea circulation. The event could be used as a test case for mesoscale atmospheric models.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 243-254 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  The circulation mechanisms instrumental in the origin of the Pacific equatorial dry zone are studied from a combination of data sources. A triple structure of convergence zones enclosing a near-equatorial zone of surface divergence is well developed only in March-April. Over the eastern Pacific the divergence band is centered to the north of the equator. Downstream acceleration and meridional divergence in the cross-equatorial flow from the southern hemisphere result from the rightward directed and northward increasing Coriolis acceleration. Upper-tropospheric convergence and subsidence along the equator is compensated by divergence in the realm of the Equatorial Mid-Tropospheric Easterly Jet. While not feeding the divergence near the surface, the subsidence throughout the mid troposphere is unconducive to deep convection and may thus also contribute to the scarcity of cloudiness. Proceeding from the eastern towards the central Pacific, the mid-tropospheric jet vanishes, the cross-equatorial surface airflow fades out, and concordant with the axis of smallest upward motion the divergence maximum and cloudiness minimum shift to south of the equator.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 255-266 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  The existing methods based on statistical techniques for long range forecasts of Indian monsoon rainfall have shown reasonably accurate performance, for last 11 years. Because of the limitation of such statistical techniques, new techniques may have to be tried to obtain better results. In this paper, we discuss the results of an artificial neural network model by combining two different neural networks, one explaining assumed deterministic dynamics within the time series of Indian monsoon rainfall (Model I) and other using eight regional and global predictors (Model II). The model I has been developed by using the data of past 50 years (1901–50) and the data for recent period (1951–97) has been used for verification. The model II has been developed by using the 30 year (1958–87) data and the verification of this model has been carried out using the independent data of 10 year period (1988–97). In model II, instead of using eight parameters directly as inputs, we have carried out Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the eight parameters with 30 years of data, 1958–87, and the first five principal components are included as input parameters. By combining model I and model II, a hybrid principal component neural network model (Model III) has been developed by using 30 year (1958–87) data as training period and recent 10 year period (1988–97) as verification period. Performance of the hybrid model (Model III) has been found the best among all three models developed. Rootmean square error (RMSE) of this hybrid model during the independent period (1988–97) is 4.93% as against 6.83%of the operational forecasts of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) using the 16 parameter Power Regression model. As this hybrid model is showing good results, it is now used by the IMD for experimental long-range forecasts of summer monsoon rainfall over India as a whole.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 97-110 
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    Notes: Summary  According to past experience, the nearly stagnant conditions caused by the presumed equilibrium between the Saronikos Gulf sea breeze and an opposing synoptic flow is identified as the principal mechanism leading to high pollution episodes in Athens during the summer. However, previous experimental work has not examined in detail the interaction of the sea breeze flow with the opposing background flow. In this context, recent experimental work covering the basic key-locations of the Athens Basin focused on the inland propagation of the southerly sea breeze from the coast to the northern part of the basin mainly under moderate northerly background wind. During this campaign, a network of four meteorological stations established along the Athens Basin and a high range acoustic sounder at the centre of Athens operated over a two months time period in the summer of 1993. In addition, tethered balloon flights in the centre of Athens and on a sea vessel about 15 km offshore were employed during an experimental day with moderate opposing background wind. The results from this experimental campaign include the documentation of the sea breeze delay and its intensity as a function of a sea breeze index and features of the vertical structure of the sea breeze over land as well as over sea.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 121-131 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary Upper level and surface wind data for 1994 are used to provide an initial identification of the orographic effect on regional airflow patterns upwind of the mountain barrier. A case study of the development of upstream blocking and barrier jets is also provided. The predominance of gradient airflow from between northwest and southwest through this region results in frequent trans-mountain winds. The mountains are seen to have a major effect on airflow in the lowest 2000 m above sea level, with clear evidence of orographic blocking and barrier wind development. Some variability in the extent of this blocking was noted during 1994, which appeared to be associated with changes in the synoptic circulation and air mass characteristics. The frequent occurrence of southwesterly winds between 300 m and 2000 m indicates significant deflection of the predominant winds to follow the southwest-northeast orientation of the mountains. These southwesterly barrier winds occur in opposition to the apparent pressure gradient. Northeasterly barrier winds occur mainly below 300 m, and represent a down-gradient, localised flow that is frequently separated from overlying northwesterly gradient winds by a transitional layer, within which the wind backs with height. The controls of the extent of orographic blocking are only assessed superficially, due to the lack of good thermodynamic data upstream of the mountains, although a combination of wind speed and atmospheric stability is obviously important. These initial results provide a useful insight into the extent of orographic effects on regional windfields, which will serve as the basis for future observational and modelling studies.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 81-95 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  This paper is a contribution to experimental meteorology: A sea-breeze front was investigated by aircraft observations and thorough numerical analysis using an unprecedented number of runs crossing the same front within a timespan of . The 33 runs were flown in a situation of offshore geostrophic wind of 5 m/s in 1000 hPa and with the strategy of obtaining information on the four-dimensional field (t=time, x=cross-coastal coordinate, y=coast-parallel coordinate, z=height): 9 runs in x-direction (and reverse) at different heights to yield x,z-cross-sections of the observed meteorological quantities (specific humidity q, potential temperature Θ and the components u, v and w of the wind velocity), assuming a frozen structure in time; the next 7 runs again in x-direction but all at the same level and on the same track to yield x,t-diagrams of the same quantities in order to study the temporal changes compared to those with x and z; the next 10 runs as a zig-zagging flight track crossing the front but drifting in y-direction, all at the same height, in order to obtain the y-dependency; andfinally 7 runs for another x,z-cross-sectional analysis, which can be compared to that evaluated from the runs at the beginning of the mission. The paper describes the 4-dimensional dependencies in detail. Pure x-variations at constant z are expressed by VCM low-pass filtered space series (VCM=variance conserving multiresolution, according to Howell and Mahrt, 1994). The x,z-analyses are similar to those in Kraus et al. (1990) and Finkele et al. (1995) verifying these results. The comparison of the x,z-studies gained from the data at the beginning and at the end of the mission show how the sea-breeze frontal area changes its structure. The fluctuations (in time) revealed by the low-pass filtered x,t-runs (same track and same height) are smaller than the contour intervals chosen in the x,z-cross-sections. This shows, that the single runs, from which the x,z-cross-sections are constructed, reliably and significantly contribute to the interpolated structure. The paper also demonstrates the overall development of the front within the 31/2 h of continuous observation. The x,y-fields demonstrate that the y-dependency of the various quantities is generally one order of magnitude smaller than the x-dependency and that the assumption of negligible y-dependency holds in the first order of approximation for a fairly homogeneous coast. Convective disturbances of a horizontal scale of 1 to 4 km at the landward side of the front, embedded in the offshore flow and bouncing against the landward propagating sea-breeze front, considerably contribute to variations of the frontal propagation speed and of the frontal shape and also to changes of the parameters with the along-frontal coordinate y.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 141-165 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  The southeast Australian coastally trapped disturbance (CTD) of 9–11 November 1982 that was previously studied by Holland and Leslie is re-visited. Additional observational data not considered by these authors and a numerical simulation using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling system (RAMS) are used for this purpose. Following initiation of the event on the south coast, mesoscale ridging propagated along the east coast to just north of Brisbane. Associated with the arrival of the event were a marked increase in surface pressure, drop in temperature and a shift and strengthening of the wind. While the simulation does not appear to capture the details of the boundary layer as well as one would like, it does represent the main features of the event, including the speed of propagation along the coast, reasonably well. Similar to the observed, the model event shows gravity current-like characteristics. The significance of topographic variability (e.g., large gap in the coastal mountains at the Hunter Valley) is considered. It is suggested that the topography and ambient stratification in southeastern Australia are less favourable for CTD occurrence than those in southern Africa and western North America where these systems have been extensively studied. Consequently, when CTD do occur in southeastern Australia, the less pronounced topography and weaker stratification may enable local effects to mask the CTD signal to some extent, thereby posing challenges in observation and forecasting.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 1-2 
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  • 86
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    Notes: Summary  A three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic numerical model with high spatial resolution, in which a simple energy closure scheme is employed, has been developed to simulate the spray dispersion over complex terrain. The evaporation, condensation, and dispersion of the spray and moisture are taken into account in model equations. The term of latent heat due to phase transformation is considered in detail to account for its effects on the temperature field and airflow. As an application of the model, the spray concentration and air relative humidity are calculated under neutral condition. The results indicate that under the neutral condition, the spray is transported to about 0.6 km downwind from the source, and its effects on the air humidity reach a further distance of 0.9 km downwind from the source. Attention is given to the dependence of the results upon the various factors influencing the simulation, such as the intensity of the source, the atmospheric stratification, and the dynamic factor of the terrain. Some numerical tests were carried out to provide extra insight to the effects of these factors. It has been demonstrated that the simulation results such as relative humidity and temperature are sensitive to these factors, especially to the thermal stratification. Under unstable conditions, the effects of the spray source increase significantly, and the variation extent of the temperature, relative humidity and flow field is larger than that under neutral condition. The effects of dynamic and thermal factors on the air flow field are discussed through the comparison of the modeling results over complex terrain and flat terrain.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 70 (1999), S. 227-238 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Summary  Data assimilation in meteorology and oceanography for strongly nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging. The dynamical system studied here is the classical three-variable Lorenz model. In this context data assimilation with weak-constraint variational methods performs better than other methods like strong-constraint variational methods or Kalman filters. The difficulty in tracking the chaotic Lorenz orbit by assimilation of noisy observations results from the inherent instability in the system. In variational methods a cost function has to be minimized. It is known, that in the Lorenz case the structure of the cost function becomes more and more complex with increasing length of the assimilation time interval and with reduction of the observational data quality. This paper proposes a non-standard implementation of a genetic algorithm for searching the global minimum in case of a weak-constraint formulation. The good performance of this non-local search is shown, but the algorithm is computationally demanding due to a very large number of control parameters within the weak-constraint formulation and, thus, the algorithm is applicable for simple systems only.
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  • 88
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    Notes: Summary A description of the Argonne Boundary Layer Experiments (ABLE) facility, located in southern Kansas, USA, to study the planetary boundary layer on a continuous basis is given. The use and role of the minisodars in these studies is shown to be important and necessary in the study of surface boundary layers, extension of wind profiles to the surface, and estimates of convergence/divergence over 50–100 km scales over this site. A description of the site and location and description of the instrument systems is given; products available through internet access are briefly described. Use of the site by cooperative investigations is also described and invited.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 71 (1999), S. 35-41 
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    Notes: Summary Improvements to the performance of acoustic wind profilers necessitate designing efficient acoustic antennas for the profilers, so that weak echoes can be received to enhance data availability. An efficient acoustic antenna needs to optimize electrical to acoustic and acoustic to electrical conversion efficiency as measured at the antenna axis. It also needs to provide a good directional response, and be able to handle increased electrical power. Phased array antennas, designed using piezo-electric transducers, should provide better characteristics in this regard. In the present study several different transducer elements were characterized with respect to their relative efficiencies. On the basis of this characterization, measurement of acoustic background noise at the expected site of antenna location and comparative study of atmospheric molecular absorption at the element peak efficiency frequencies, it is concluded that Motorola KSN 1025 A transducer is the best speaker element for the array antennas for profilers up to around 500 meters. The present array antenna has been designed using 104 KSN 1025 A piezo-electric transducer elements. The corner elements were removed from a 16 × 8 element speaker matrix, yielding an irregular octagonal pattern. Before installing the elements in the array, each element was individually characterized for its transmit and receive conversion efficiency, and variations in the product of these efficiencies (conversion gain) amongst the different elements, has been usefully employed to taper the array gain from centre to periphery. The antenna was systematically characterized, in an acoustic anechoic chamber, with respect to its axial transmit and receive conversion efficiencies and directional response.
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    Natural hazards 20 (1999), S. 83-92 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: tsunami ; hazard assessment ; seismic hazard ; Chile ; Kurile-Kamachatka
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This work describes the characteristics of a tsunami with an initial negative wave in the Pacific Ocean. These tsunamis fall into two classes; one class is produced by strong earthquakes and the other by earthquakes of moderate size. The relationship between the run-up probability occurrence is determined for both classes of tsunami and the mechanisms by which the tsunamis are generated is considered with reference to the keyboard model of tsunamigenic earthquakes. Tsunamis in the Arica region of northern Chile were analysed in more detail and these analyses suggest that a catastrophic tsunami is likely to occur in the Arica region in the next 10–20 years.
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  • 91
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    Keywords: slope instability ; static analysis ; dynamic analysis ; earthquake
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The paper describes a method for the evaluation of slope instability for urban planning purposes, applied in the test area ‘Oltre Po Pavese’ (Regione Lombardia, Italy). A statistic and a probabilistic approach have been applied for the estimation of landslide activations and for the definition of potentially unstable areas. The displacement has been obtained through a simplified dynamic analysis, using deterministic methods: first the critical horizontal acceleration coefficient (Kc) has been evaluated, second the displacement has been calculated using the Kc values and the seismic input values, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and Arias intensity (Ia), through empirical relationships between displacement and Ia values for different Kc values. The results can be used by the regional government to give to the municipalities of the area a guide for the selection of the zones to be studied with future and more detailed analyses.
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  • 92
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    Keywords: seismic hazard ; computation ; GSHAP ; Caucasus
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract As a result of work carried out during the first two stages of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) for the Test Area ‘Caucasus’, a uniform earthquake catalogue was compiled and a Seismic Source Zones Model was designed. At the final stage of the program, the computation of seismic hazard was done by different methods. The results of a computation done using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment methodology, as well as primary intermediate steps and preparatory work are given in the present paper. Peak horizontal ground acceleration is chosen as the parameter representing seismic hazard. Final computer calculations were done with the SEISRISK III program. The two final Seismic Hazard maps for different return periods are presented. The work was carried out at the National Survey for Seismic Protection of the Republic of Armenia.
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    Natural hazards 20 (1999), S. 21-42 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: earth fissures ; subsidence ; flooding hazard ; geophysical investigation ; Saudi Arabia
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The present investigation deals with the engineering geological evaluation of earth fissuring associated with land subsidence in Wadi Al-Yutamah. The investigations include surface mapping and sampling, in situ and laboratory soil testing, water well inventory, geophysical survey, and monitoring of open fissures and the level of the wadi floor. The earth fissures in the area developed as a result of land subsidence due to man-induced water level declines caused by pumping water from the wadi aquifer above a safe yield. This situation has produced a compaction of underlying unconsolidated sediments and formed hair fissures above ridges and steps of buried surface bedrock. These hair fissures enlarged later after flood erosion and possible enhancement with hydrocompaction. The wadi soil in the study area consists mainly of silt of low plasticity, low density and high void ratio and it was classified as loess like material and collapsing soil. The settlement in the area is greatly increased by excessive wetting under constant pressures. The calculated coefficients of subsidence (collapse) show that the wadi soils were considered to pose moderate problems when wetted. Monitoring of the existing open earth fissures using extensometers indicates that the width of the fissure increases after flooding or rain falls. Monitoring of the ground level using GPS techniques, shows a good relation between the declination of the water table and the subsidence of the ground of the wadi floor.
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  • 94
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    Keywords: seismic risk ; reduction and mitigation ; Armenia ; new technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The original methods of seismic risk assessment based on the main factors, defining the high level of seismic risk in Armenia, are used in this paper. Based on the analysis carried out, an assessment is made about the fact, that the capital of Armenia, Yerevan, is the most risk exposed area. A strategy for seismic risk reduction, derived from local peculiarities and the level of seismic risk, is presented. Improving the resisting of existing buildings and constructions to seismic damage, based on the grounds of new technologies elaborated by NSSP RA, is emphasised in this strategy.
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    Natural hazards 20 (1999), S. 93-116 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: self-organized criticality ; fractals ; cellular-automata models ; earthquakes ; landslides ; forest fires
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The concept of self-organizedcriticality evolved from studies of three simplecellular-automata models: the sand-pile, slider-block,and forest-fire models. In each case, there is asteady “input” and the “loss” is associated with afractal (power-law) distribution of “avalanches.” Each of the three models can be associated with animportant natural hazard: the sand-pile model withlandslides, the slider-block model with earthquakes,and the forest-fire model with forest fires. We showthat each of the three natural hazards havefrequency-size statistics that are well approximatedby power-law distributions. The model behaviorsuggests that the recurrence interval for a severeevent can be estimated by extrapolating the observedfrequency-size distribution of small and mediumevents. For example, the recurrence interval for amagnitude seven earthquake can be obtained directlyfrom the observed frequency of occurrence of magnitudefour earthquakes. This concept leads to thedefinition of a seismic intensity factor. Both globaland regional maps of this seismic intensity factor aregiven. In addition, the behavior of the modelssuggests that the risk of occurrence of large eventscan be substantially reduced if small events areencouraged. For example, if small forest fires areallowed to burn, the risk of a large forest fire issubstantially reduced.
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    Natural hazards 20 (1999), S. 137-158 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: landslides hazard ; direct methods ; indirect methods ; GIS ; geomorphology ; Alpago area
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The objective of the method explained in this paper isto obtain a better insight in the decision rulesapplied by geomorphologists in the direct mapping oflandslide hazard. This can be obtained by forcinggeomorphologists to specify for each unit (polygon) intheir hazard map the criteria that they used toclassify the unit as high, medium or low hazard. Whenthis is done systemically for an entire area, it ispossible to analyze those criteria statistically, andto evaluate whether they can be grouped into generaldecision rules, or whether these criteria arecompletely site specific. The same area in the Alpagoregion in Italy was mapped at 1 : 5000 scale by threeteams of experts individually. The different methodsare presented and the results are compared.
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    Natural hazards 20 (1999), S. 197-213 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: debris flow ; monitoring and warning systems ; seismic detectors ; hazard mitigation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Debris flows constitute a major threat forseveral urban settlements located on the fans ofmountain catchments and for other infrastructures thatinteract with these fans, particularly highways andmotorways. Often structural measures such as theconstruction and maintenance of deposition basins,check dams, channel linings are both too expensive andnot capable of completely guaranteeing the safety forinhabitants of villages and users of infrastructuresaffected by debris flows. Therefore the search offunctional, reliable and possibly not expensivewarning systems should be pursued to increase theavailable tools to face this often devastating kind ofphenomenon. In this paper the use of seismic detectorsfor the determination of a debris flow occurrence ina torrent before its arrival on the fan will bediscussed, together with their potential use asmonitoring and warning systems. In 1995 a set of fourseismic detectors was placed at a distance of aboutone hundred meters from each other along a straightchannel reach of a debris flow prone torrent locatedon the Eastern Italian Alps. The purpose, in a firstphase of the research, was mainly to verify whichinformation could be obtained through this type ofdevice on the occasion of a debris flow occurrence. On5 July 1995, 22 June and 8 July 1996 three debrisflows were recorded by this seismic network: the datathat have been collected will be presented andconveniently processed for their interpretation. Theresults that have been obtained show that the passageof a debris flow in a torrent can be clearlyidentified using seismic devices placed at a safedistance from the channel bed and that in some casesa velocity estimation of the flowing mass is alsopossible through the processing of the seismic data.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 98
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Natural hazards 20 (1999), S. 159-183 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: natural hazard ; landslide activity maps ; geomorphic evolution ; earthquake trigger ; Italy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper focuses on the application of landslideactivity maps for evaluating the mass movementhazard in selected areas of the Southern Apenninesof Italy: Bisaccia, Calitri, and Buoninventre. Theavailability of multi-year aerial photo coveragehelped to assess the morphological changes whichoccurred in the last 40 years. This information,integrated with historical data on slope instabilityand field checks, were used to produce landslideactivity maps. These maps represent a short-cut inthe assessment of mass movement hazard, because theyfocus on the effects of slope instability ratherthan on the causative conditions and processes;however, if kept simple and prepared at large scale,they may help the local administrators and land-useplanners to reduce the socio-economic costs oflandslides. Furthermore, the comparative study oflandslide activity represents a relativelyinexpensive and quick method for evaluating theperformance of the engineering control efforts.The quantification of landslide activity in terms ofareal frequency can represent an additional step,useful to determine the relative landslide hazard(zonation in more or less hazardous areas). Forexample, the estimates of areal frequency of activelandsliding for the last 40 years demonstrated thegreat influence of the 1980 Irpinia earthquake(Ms = 6.9) on the stability of slopes situatedclose to its epicenter (within a radius of about20 km).
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  • 99
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Natural hazards 20 (1999), S. 279-294 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: risk assessment ; groundwater contamination ; vulnerability ; GIS ; hazard ; economic ; value
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The groundwater contamination risk map of a samplealluvial area was produced by using the IlwisGeographical Information System (GIS) to construct andto overlay thematic maps. The risk map has beenderived from the vulnerability map, the hazard map,where the potential contaminating sources wereidentified, and the socio-economic value of thegroundwater resource, represented by the wells. Thegroundwater quality map allowed thereliability of hazard and risk maps to be tested. The final map shows interesting results and stressesthe need for the GIS to test and improve on thegroundwater contamination risk assessment methods.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 100
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: lava ; Cellular Automata ; simulation ; hazard ; risk
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The model SCIARA, based on the “Cellular Automata” paradigm, is a versatile instrument whose scope is to analyse volcanic risk from lava flows. The possible fields of intervention are: [(a)] Long term forecasting of the flow direction at various eruption rates and points of emission by locating potential risk areas and permitting the creation of detailed maps of risk; [(b)] The possibility to follow the progress of an event and predict its evolution; [(c)] The verification of the possible effects of human intervention on real or simulated flows in stream deviation. A risk scenario has been developed for the Etnean territories of the towns of Nicolosi, Pedara and S. Alfio, simulating possible episodes with different vent locations along the fracture opened in the 1989 eruption and successively activated in the 1991–1993 eruption. The main characteristics of lava flows, that might be dangerous to the inhabited areas, have been analysed on the basis of the carried out Cellular Automata.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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