ALBERT

Beschreibung: The Aegean water masses and circulation structure are studied via two large-scale surveys performed during the late winters of 1988 and 1990 by the R/V Yakov Gakkel of the former Soviet Union. The analysis of these data sheds light on the mechanisms of water mass formation in the Aegean Sea that triggered the outflow of Cretan Deep Water (CDW) from the Cretan Sea into the abyssal basins of the eastern Mediterranean Sea (the so-called Eastern Mediterranean Transient). It is found that the central Aegean Basin is the site of the formation of Aegean Intermediate Water, which slides southward and, depending on their density, renews either the intermediate or the deep water of the Cretan Sea. During the winter of 1988, the Cretan Sea waters were renewed mainly at intermediate levels, while during the winter of 1990 it was mainly the volume of CDW that increased. This Aegean water mass redistribution and formation process in 1990 differed from that in 1988 in two major aspects: (i) during the winter of 1990 the position of the front between the Black Sea Water and the Levantine Surface Water was displaced farther north than during the winter of 1988 and (ii) heavier waters were formed in 1990 as a result of enhanced lateral advection of salty Levantine Surface Water that enriched the intermediate waters with salt. In 1990 the 29.2 isopycnal rose to the surface of the central basin and a large volume of CDW filled the Cretan Basin. It is found that, already in 1988, the 29.2 isopycnal surface, which we assume is the lowest density of the CDW, was shallower than the Kassos Strait sill and thus CDW egressed into the Eastern Mediterranean.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 1841-1859

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: reserved

Beschreibung: Five non-eddy-resolving oceanic general circulation models driven by atmospheric fluxes derived from the NCEP reanalysis are used to investigate the link between the Gulf Stream (GS) variability, the atmospheric circulation, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Despite the limited model resolution, the temperature at the 200-m depth along the mean GS axis behaves similarly in most models to that observed, and it is also well correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indicating that a northward (southward) GS shift lags a positive (negative) NAO phase by 0–2 yr. The northward shift is accompanied by an increase in the GS transport, and conversely the southward shift with a decrease in the GS transport. Two dominant time scales appear in the response of the GS transport to the NAO forcing: a fast time scale (less than 1 month) for the barotropic component, and a slower one (about 2 yr) for the baroclinic component. In addition, the two components are weakly coupled. The GS response seems broadly consistent with a linear adjustment to the changes in the wind stress curl, and evidence for baroclinic Rossby wave propagation is found in the southern part of the subtropical gyre. However, the GS shifts are also affected by basin-scale changes in the oceanic conditions, and they are well correlated in most models with the changes in the AMOC. A larger AMOC is found when the GS is stronger and displaced northward, and a higher correlation is found when the observed changes of the GS position are used in the comparison. The relation between the GS and the AMOC could be explained by the inherent coupling between the thermohaline and the wind-driven circulation, or by the NAO variability driving them on similar time scales in the models.

Beschreibung: This research was supported by the PREDICATE project of the European Community, and for M. Bentsen by the Research Council of Norway through RegClim, NOClim, and the Programme of Supercomputing.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 2119–2135

Beschreibung: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: reserved

Beschreibung: A land surface model (LSM) has been included in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4 (ECHAM4) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The LSM is an early version of the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) and it replaces the simple land surface scheme previously included in ECHAM4. The purpose of this paper is to document how a more exhaustive consideration of the land surface–vegetation processes affects the simulated boreal summer surface climate. To investigate the impacts on the simulated climate, different sets of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations have been performed with ECHAM4 alone and with the AGCM coupled with ORCHIDEE. Furthermore, to assess the effects of the increase in horizontal resolution the coupling of ECHAM4 with the LSM has been implemented at different horizontal resolutions. The analysis reveals that the LSM has large effects on the simulated boreal summer surface climate of the atmospheric model. Considerable impacts are found in the surface energy balance due to changes in the surface latent heat fluxes over tropical and midlatitude areas covered with vegetation. Rainfall and atmospheric circulation are substantially affected by these changes. In particular, increased precipitation is found over evergreen and summergreen vegetated areas. Because of the socioeconomical relevance, particular attention has been devoted to the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region. The results of this study indicate that precipitation over the Indian subcontinent is better simulated with the coupled ECHAM4–ORCHIDEE model compared to the atmospheric model alone.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 255–278

Beschreibung: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: partially_open

Beschreibung: In this paper results from the application of an ocean data assimilation (ODA) system, combining a multivariate reduced-order optimal interpolator (OI) scheme with a global ocean general circulation model (OGCM), are described. The present ODA system, designed to assimilate in situ temperature and salinity observations, has been used to produce ocean reanalyses for the 1962–2001 period. The impact of assimilating observed hydrographic data on the ocean mean state and temporal variability is evaluated. A special focus of this work is on the ODA system skill in reproducing a realistic ocean salinity state. Results from a hierarchy of different salinity reanalyses, using varying combinations of assimilated data and background error covariance structures, are described. The impact of the space and time resolution of the background error covariance parameterization on salinity is addressed.

Beschreibung: This work has been funded by the ENACT Project (Contract EVK2-CT2001-00117) for A. Bellucci and P. Di Pietro, and partially by the ENSEMBLES Project (Contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539) for A. Bellucci.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 3785-3807

Beschreibung: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: reserved

Beschreibung: Red Pompeian paintings, very famous for their deep intensity, are currently suffering from darkening. The origins of this darkening degradation are not clearly identified yet and remain a major issue for curators. In the specific case of cinnabar (HgS)-based red pigment, a photoinduced conversion into black metacinnabar is usually suspected. This work is focused on the blackening of red cinnabar paintings coated on a sparry calcite mortar. Different samples exhibiting different levels of degradation were selected upon visual observations and analyzed by synchrotron-based microanalytical techniques. Atomic and molecular compositions of the different debased regions revealed two possible degradation mechanisms. On one hand, micro X-ray fluorescence elemental maps show peculiar distributions of chlorine and sulfur. On the other hand, X-ray absorption spectroscopy performed at both Cl and S K-edges confirms the presence of characteristic degradation products: (i) Hg- Cl compounds (e.g., corderoite, calomel, and terlinguaite), which may result from the reaction with exogenous NaCl, in gray areas; (ii) gypsum, produced by the calcite sulfation, in black coatings. Metacinnabar is never detected. Finally, a cross section was analyzed to map the in-depth alteration gradient. Reduced and oxidized sulfur distributions reveal that the sulfated black coating consists of a 5-ím-thick layer covering intact cinnabar.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 7484-7492

Beschreibung: reserved

Beschreibung: The effect of horizontal resolution on tropical variability is investigated within the modified SINTEX model, SINTEX-F, developed jointly at INGV, IPSL and at the Frontier Research System. The horizontal resolutions T30 and T106 are investigated in terms of the coupling characteristics, frequency and variability of the tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions. It appears that the T106 resolution is generally beneficial even if it does not eliminate all the major systematic errors of the coupled model. There is an excessive shift west of the cold tongue and ENSO variability, and high resolution has also a somewhat negative impact to the variability in the East Indian Ocean. A dominant two-year peak for the NINO3 variabilty in the T30 model is moderated in the T106 as it shifts to longer time scale. At high resolution new processes come into play, as the coupling of tropical instability waves, the resolution of coastal flows at the Pacific Mexican coasts and improved coastal forcing along the coast of South America. The delayed oscillator seems the main mechanism that generates the interannual variability in both models, but the models realize it in different ways. In the T30 model it is confined close to the equator, involving relatively fast equatorial and near-equatorial modes, in the high resolution, it involves a wider latitudinal region and slower waves. It is speculated that the extent of the region that is involved in the interannual variability may be linked to the time scale of the variability itself.

Beschreibung: This research was partially supported by the Italy–USA Cooperation Program of the Italian Ministry of Environment and by the EU projects ENSEMBLES and DYNAMITE.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 730-750

Beschreibung: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: reserved

Beschreibung: The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is one of the main components of the Asian summer monsoon. It is well known that one of the starting mechanisms of a summer monsoon is the thermal contrast between land and ocean and that sea surface temperature (SST) and moisture are crucial factors for its evolution and intensity. The Indian Ocean, therefore, may play a very important role in the generation and evolution of the ISM itself. A coupled general circulation model, implemented with a high resolution atmospheric component, appears to be able to simulate the Indian summer monsoon in a realistic way. In particular, the features of the simulated ISM variability are similar to the observations. In this study, the relationships between ISM and Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST anomalies are investigated, as well as the ability of the coupled model to capture those connections. The recent discovery of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM) may suggest new perspectives in the relationship between ISM and TIO SST. A new statistical technique, the Coupled Manifold, is used to investigate the TIO SST variability and its relation with the Tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). The analysis shows that the SST variability in the TIO contains a significant portion that is independent from the TPO variability. The same technique is used to estimate the amount of Indian rainfall variability that can be explained by the Tropical Indian Ocean SST. Indian Ocean SST anomalies are separated in a part remotely forced from the Tropical Pacific Ocean variability and a part independent from that. The relationships between the two SSTA components and the Indian monsoon variability are then investigated in detail.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 3083-3105

Beschreibung: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: reserved

Beschreibung: An assessment of the present European operational marine monitoring and forecasting systems shows how observations, atmospheric forcing fields and ocean models combine to make useful oceanographic products possible.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 1081-1090

Beschreibung: open

Beschreibung: Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere–ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 1195-1203

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: reserved

Beschreibung: The accuracy of all types of Vaisala radiosondes and two types of Snow White chilled-mirror hygrosondes was assessed in an intensive in situ comparison with reference hygrometers. Fourteen nighttime reference comparisons were performed to determine a working reference for the radiosonde comparisons. These showed that the night version of the Snow White agreed best with the references [i.e., the NOAA frost-point hygrometer (FPH) and University of Colorado cryogenic frost-point hygrometer (CFH)], but that the daytime version had severe problems with contamination in the humid upper troposphere. Since the RS92 performance was superior to the other radiosondes and to the day version of the Snow White, it was selected to be the working reference. According to the reference comparison, the RS92 has no bias in the mid- and lower troposphere, with deviations 〈±5% in relative humidity (RH). In the upper troposphere, the RS92 has a 5% RH wet bias, which is partly due to the RS92 time lag error and the termination of the heating cycle. It was shown that the time lag effects relating to Vaisala radiosondes can be corrected. Because these were nighttime comparisons, they can be considered to be free from solar radiation effects. Neither the radiosondes nor the Snow White succeeded in reproducing reference class hygrometer profiles in the stratosphere. According to the 29 radiosonde intercomparisons, the RS92 and the modified RS90 (FN) had the best mutual agreement and no bias. The disagreement is largest (〈±10% RH) at low temperatures (T ≪ −30°C), where the FN underestimated (overestimated) in high (low) ambient RH. In comparison with the RS92, the RS90 had a semilinearly increasing wet bias with decreasing temperature, where the bias was 10% RH at −60°C. The RS80-A suffers from a large temperature-dependent dry bias in high RH conditions, being over 30% RH at −60°C and 5% RH near 0°C. The RS80-A dry bias can be almost totally removed with the correction algorithm by Leiterer et al., which was chosen as the best available. The other approach tested tends to overcorrect in high RH conditions when T 〈 −50°C. For T 〉 −30°C it is ineffective and does not correct the RS80-A dry bias in high ambient RH.

Beschreibung: In this study we show a teleconnection pattern relating Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the western Indian Ocean over two seasons (Sept-Oct-Nov and Dec-Jan-Feb) at zero lag from observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations. This teleconnection pattern suggests that a positive SSTA in Sept-Oct-Nov (SON) and Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) seasons over the western Indian Ocean increases the contemporaneous positive OLR anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean. This teleconnection pattern is also simulated by the Center for Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies (COLA) AGCM forced with observed SST’s. From the experimental COLA AGCM runs (wherein the Pacific Ocean SST variability is suppressed except for the climatological annual cycle) it is diagnosed that the interannual variability of OLR over the western Pacific Ocean persists because of this teleconnection. In relation to this teleconnection pattern it is shown that there is a significant linear response of the SON and DJF equatorial zonal wind anomaly over the Pacific Ocean to contemporaneous SSTA over the western Indian Ocean which is comparable to that of the eastern and western Pacific Oceans. The experimental AGCM runs clearly show that this response of the equatorial zonal wind anomaly to the western Indian Ocean forcing shifts westward towards the Indian Ocean in the absence of Pacific SST variability.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: Skill in ensemble-mean dynamical seasonal climate hindcasts with a coupled land-atmosphere model and specified observed sea surface temperature is compared to that for long multi-decade integrations of the same model where the initial conditions are far removed from the seasons of validation. The evaluations are performed for surface temperature and compared among all seasons. Skill is found to be higher in the seasonal simulations than the multi-decadal integrations except during boreal winter. The higher skill is prominent even beyond the first month when the direct influence of the atmospheric initial state elevates model skill. Skill is generally found to be lowest during the winter season for the dynamical seasonal forecasts, equal to that of the long integrations, which show some of the highest skill during winter. The reason for the differences in skill during the non-winter months is attributed to the severe climate drift in the long simulations, manifest through errors in downward fluxes of water and energy over land and evident in soil wetness. The drift presses the land surface to extreme dry or wet states over much of the globe, into a range where there is little sensitivity of evaporation to fluctuations in soil moisture. Thus, the land-atmosphere feedback is suppressed, which appears to lessen the model’s ability to respond correctly over land to remote ocean temperature anomalies.

Beschreibung: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: In this paper, the circulations driven by deep heating and shallow heating are investigated through analytically solving a set of linear equations and examining circulations simulated by a dry primitive equation model. Special emphasis is placed on the low-level mass (moisture) convergence associated with the forced circulation and the maintenance of the shallow and deep heat sources. It is found that the forced circulation driven by shallow heating is more likely to be trapped horizontally near the heating area but relatively extended in the vertical. As a consequence, diabatic heating can not balance adiabatic cooling due to upward motion. At the levels slightly above the top of the heating, a negative vertical gradient of temperature perturbation appears. For the atmosphere driven by deep heating, however, the temperature perturbation cannot accumulate because the heating signals propagate away very fast, allowing an approximate equilibrium between the convective diabatic heating and adiabatic cooling due to upward motion. The converged moisture associated with circulation driven by shallow heating exceeds the amount needed to maintain the heat source. However, the circulation driven by deep heating does not feed back effectively to the moisture convergence, and thus can not be self-sustaining.

Beschreibung: Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies - Calverton

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 21 (2004): 1448–1461, doi:10.1175/1520-0426(2004)021〈1448:AOAPAD〉2.0.CO;2.

Beschreibung: The accuracy of velocities measured by a pulse-coherent acoustic Doppler profiler (PCADP) in the bottom boundary layer of a wave-dominated inner-shelf environment is evaluated. The downward-looking PCADP measured velocities in eight 10-cm cells at 1 Hz. Velocities measured by the PCADP are compared to those measured by an acoustic Doppler velocimeter for wave orbital velocities up to 95 cm s−1 and currents up to 40 cm s−1. An algorithm for correcting ambiguity errors using the resolution velocities was developed. Instrument bias, measured as the average error in burst mean speed, is −0.4 cm s−1 (standard deviation = 0.8). The accuracy (root-mean-square error) of instantaneous velocities has a mean of 8.6 cm s−1 (standard deviation = 6.5) for eastward velocities (the predominant direction of waves), 6.5 cm s−1 (standard deviation = 4.4) for northward velocities, and 2.4 cm s−1 (standard deviation = 1.6) for vertical velocities. Both burst mean and root-mean-square errors are greater for bursts with ub ≥ 50 cm s−1. Profiles of burst mean speeds from the bottom five cells were fit to logarithmic curves: 92% of bursts with mean speed ≥ 5 cm s−1 have a correlation coefficient R2 〉 0.96. In cells close to the transducer, instantaneous velocities are noisy, burst mean velocities are biased low, and bottom orbital velocities are biased high. With adequate blanking distances for both the profile and resolution velocities, the PCADP provides sufficient accuracy to measure velocities in the bottom boundary layer under moderately energetic inner-shelf conditions.

Beschreibung: This work was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the Southwest Washington Coastal Erosion Study

Beschreibung: 〈jats:p〉Sustained harmonic tremor signals were recorded by the seismographs of the German Neumayer Base seismological network in western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. These tremor episodes, lasting up to 16 hours, were recorded up to 820 kilometers from the source. Their spectra show narrow peaks with fundamental frequencies ranging from 0.5 to 6 hertz, more than 30 integer harmonic overtones, and frequency gliding, resembling volcanic tremor. Frequency‐wave number analysis suggested a moving source, which was recognized as iceberg B-09A traveling along the coast of eastern Antarctica. The most probable tremor sources are fluid-flow‐induced vibrations inside the iceberg's tunnel/crevasse systems.〈/jats:p〉

Beschreibung: Advances in computer power, new forecasting challenges, and new diagnostic techniques have brought about changes in the way atmospheric development and vertical motion are diagnosed in an operational setting. Many of these changes, such as improved model skill, model resolution, and ensemble forecasting, have arguably been detrimental to the ability of forecasters to understand and respond to the evolving atmosphere. The use of nondivergent wind in place of geostrophic wind would be a step in the right direction, but the advantages of potential vorticity suggest that its widespread adoption as a diagnostic tool on the west side of the Atlantic is overdue. Ertel potential vorticity (PV), when scaled to be compatible with pseudopotential vorticity, is generally similar to pseudopotential vorticity, so forecasters accustomed to quasigeostrophic reasoning through the height tendency equation can transfer some of their intuition into the Ertel-PV framework. Indeed, many of the differences between pseudopotential vorticity and Ertel potential vorticity are consequences of the choice of definition of quasigeostrophic PV and are not fundamental to the quasigeostrophic system. Thus, at its core, PV thinking is consistent with commonly used quasigeostrophic diagnostic techniques.

Beschreibung: Synoptic and mesoscale meteorology underwent a revolution in the 1940s and 1950s with the widespread deployment of novel weather observations, such as the radiosonde network and the advent of weather radar. These observations provoked a rapid increase in our understanding of the structure and dynamics of the atmosphere by pioneering analysts such as Fred Sanders. The authors argue that we may be approaching an analogous revolution in our ability to study the structure and dynamics of atmospheric phenomena with the advent of probabilistic objective analyses. These probabilistic analyses provide not only best estimates of the state of the atmosphere (e.g., the expected value) and the uncertainty about this state (e.g., the variance), but also the relationships between all locations and all variables at that instant in time. Up until now, these relationships have been determined by sampling in time by, for example, case studies, composites, and time-series analysis. Here the authors propose a new approach, ensemble synoptic analysis, which exploits the information contained in probabilistic samples of analyses at one or more instants in time. One source of probabilistic analyses is ensemble-based state-estimation methods, such as ensemble-based Kalman filters. Analyses from such a filter may be used to study atmospheric phenomena and the relationships between fields and locations at one or more instants in time. After a brief overview of a research-based ensemble Kalman filter, illustrative examples of ensemble synoptic analysis are given for an extratropical cyclone, including relationships between the cyclone minimum sea level pressure and other synoptic features, statistically determined operators for potential-vorticity inversion, and ensemble-based sensitivity analysis.

Beschreibung: The pioneering large-scale studies of cyclone frequency, location, and intensity conducted by Fred Sanders prompt similar questions about lesser-studied anticyclone development. The results of a climatology of closed anticyclones (CAs) at 200, 500, and 850 hPa, with an emphasis on the subtropics and midlatitudes, is presented to assess the seasonally varying distribution and hemispheric differences of these features. To construct the CA climatology, a counting program was applied to twice-daily 2.5° NCEP–NCAR reanalysis 200-, 500-, and 850-hPa geopotential height fields for the period 1950–2003. Stationary CAs, defined as those CAs that were located at a particular location for consecutive time periods, were counted only once. The climatology results show that 200-hPa CAs occur preferentially during summer over subtropical continental regions, while 500-hPa CAs occur preferentially over subtropical oceans in all seasons and over subtropical continents in summer. Conversely, 850-hPa CAs occur preferentially over oceanic regions beneath upper-level midocean troughs, and are most prominent in the Northern Hemisphere, and over midlatitude continents in winter. Three case studies of objectively identified CAs that produced heal waves over the United States, Europe, and Australia in 1995, 2003, and 2004, respectively, are presented to supplement the climatological results. The case studies, examining the subset of CAs than can produce heat waves, illustrate how climatologically hot continental tropical air masses produced over arid and semiarid regions of the subtropics and lower midlatitudes can become abnormally hot in conjunction with dynamically driven upper-level ridge amplification. Subsequently, these abnormally hot air masses are advected downstream away from their source regions in conjunction with transient disturbances embedded in anomalously strong westerly jets.

Beschreibung: Oklahoma Mesonetwork data are used to illustrate important atmospheric features that are not well shown by the usual synoptic data. For example, some shifts of wind from south to north that are shown as cold fronts on synoptic charts are not cold fronts by any plausible definition. As previously discussed by Fred Sanders and others, such errors in analysis can be reduced by knowledge of the wide variety of weather phenomena that actually exists, and by more attention to temperatures at the earth's surface as revealed by conventional synoptic data. Mesoscale data for four cases reinforce previous discussions of the ephemeral nature of fronts and deficiencies in the usual analyses of cold fronts. One type of misanalyzed case involves post-cold-frontal boundary layer air that is warmer than the prefrontal air. A second type is usually nocturnal, with a rise of local temperature during disruption of an inversion and a wind shift with later cooling that accompanies advection of a climatological gradient of temperature.

Beschreibung: The advent of the polar front theory of cyclones in Norway early in the last century held that the development of fronts and air masses is central to understanding midlatitude weather phenomena. While work on fronts continues to this day, the concept of air masses has been largely forgotten, superseded by the idea of a continuum. The Norwegians placed equal emphasis on the thermodynamics of airmass formation and on the dynamical processes that moved air masses around; today, almost all the emphasis is on dynamics, with little published literature on diabatic processes acting on a large scale. In this essay, the author argues that a lack of understanding of large-scale diabatic processes leads to an incomplete picture of the atmosphere and contributes to systematic errors in medium- and long-range weather forecasts. At the same time, modern concepts centered around potential vorticity conservation and inversion lead one to a redefinition of the term "air mass" that may have some utility in conceptualizing atmospheric physics and in weather forecasting.

Beschreibung: Historically, the atmospheric sciences have tended to treat problems of weather and climate separately. The real physical system, however, is a continuum, with short-term (minutes to days) “weather” fluctuations influencing climate variations and change, and, conversely, more slowly varying aspects of the system (typical time scales of a season or longer) affecting the weather that is experienced. While this past approach has served important purposes, it is becoming increasingly apparent that in order to make progress in addressing many socially important problems, an improved understanding of the connections between weather and climate is required. This overview summarizes the progress over the last few decades in the understanding of the phenomena and mechanisms linking weather and climate variations. The principal emphasis is on developments in understanding key phenomena and processes that bridge the time scales between synoptic-scale weather variability (periods of approximately 1 week) and climate variations of a season or longer. Advances in the ability to identify synoptic features, improve physical understanding, and develop forecast skill within this time range are reviewed, focusing on a subset of major, recurrent phenomena that impact extratropical wintertime weather and climate variations over the Pacific–North American region. While progress has been impressive, research has also illuminated areas where future gains are possible. This article concludes with suggestions on near-term directions for advancing the understanding and capabilities to predict the connections between weather and climate variations.

Beschreibung: Fred Sanders' career extended over 55 yr, touching upon many of the revolutionary transformations in the field of meteorology during that period. In this paper, his contributions to the transformation of synoptic meteorology, his research into the nature of explosive cyclogenesis, and related advances in the ability to predict these storms are reviewed. In addition to this review, the current status of forecasting oceanic cyclones 4.5 days in advance is presented, illustrating the progress that has been made and the challenges that persist, especially for forecasting those extreme extratropical cyclones that are marked by surface wind speeds exceeding hurricane force. Last, Fred Sanders' participation in a forecast for the historic 1947 snowstorm (that produced snowfall amounts in the New York City area that set records at that time) is reviewed along with an attempt to use today's operational global model to simulate this storm using data that were available at the time. The study reveals the predictive limitations involved with this case based on the scarcity of upper-air data in 1947, while confirming Fred Sanders' forecasting skills when dealing with these types of major storm events, even as a young aviation forecaster at New York's LaGuardia Airport.

Beschreibung: A case study of a double dryline on 22 May 2002 is presented. Mobile, 3-mm-wavelength Doppler radars from the University of Massachusetts and the University of Wyoming (Wyoming cloud radar) were used to collect very fine resolution vertical-velocity data in the vicinity of each of the moisture gradients associated with the drylines. Very narrow (50–100 m wide) channels of strong upward vertical velocity (up to 8 m s–1) were measured in the convergence zone of the easternmost dryline, larger in magnitude than reported with previous drylines. Distinct areas of descending motion were evident to the east and west of both drylines. Radar data are interpreted in the context of other observational platforms available during the International H2O Project (IHOP-2002). a variational ground-based mobile radar data processing technique was developed and applied to pseudo-dual-Doppler data collected during a rolling range-height indicator deployment. It was found that there was a secondary (vertical) circulation normal to the easternmost moisture gradient; the circulation comprised an easterly component near-surface flow to the east, a strong upward vertical component in the convergence zone, a westerly return, flow above the convective boundary layer, and numerous regions of descending motion, the most prominent approximately 3–5 km to the east of the surface convergence zone.

Beschreibung: Fred Sanders' teaching and research contributions in the area of quasigeostrophic theory are highlighted in this paper. The application of these contributions is made to the topic of extreme cold-season precipitation events in the Saint Lawrence valley in the northeastern United States and southern Quebec. This research focuses on analyses of Saint Lawrence valley heavy precipitation events. Synoptic- and planetary-scale circulation anomaly precursors are typically identified several days prior to these events. These precursors include transient upper-level troughs, strong moisture transports into the region, and anomalously large precipitable water amounts. The physical insight of Fred Sanders' work is used in the analysis of these composite results. Further details of this insight are provided in analyses of one case of heavy precipitation.

Beschreibung: Sanders designed a barotropic tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction model for the North Atlantic TC basin that became known as the Sanders barotropic (SANBAR) model. It predicted the streamfunction of the deeplayer mean winds (tropical circulation vertically averaged from 1000 to 100 hPa) that represents the vertically averaged tropical circulations. Originally, the wind input for the operational objective analysis (OA) consisted of winds measured by radiosondes and 44 bogus winds provided by analysis at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which corresponded to the vertically averaged flow over sparsely observed tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude oceanic regions. The model covered a fixed regional area and had a grid size of ~ 154 km. It estimated the initial storm motion solely on the basis of the large-scale flow from the OA, not taking into account the observed storm motion. During 1970, the SANBAR model became the first dynamical TC track model to be run operationally at NHC. Track forecasts of SANBAR were verified from the 1971 TC season when track model verifications began at NHC until its retirement after the 1989 Atlantic TC season. The average annual SANBAR forecast track errors were verified relative to Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER), the standard no-skill track forecast. Comparison with CLIPER determines the skill of track forecast methods. Verifications are presented for two different versions of the SANBAR model system used operationally during 1973–84 and 1985–89. In homogeneous comparisons (i.e., includes only forecasts for the same initial times) for the former period, SANBAR's track forecasts were slightly better than CLIPER at 24–48-h forecast intervals; however, from 1985 to 1989 the average SANBAR track forecast errors from 24–72 h were ~10% more skillful than homogeneous CLIPER track forecasts.

Beschreibung: In the last decade, Fred Sanders was often critical of current surface analysis techniques. This led to his promoting the use of surface potential temperatures to distinguish between fronts, baroclinic troughs, and non-frontal baroclinic zones, and to the development of a climatology of surface baroclinic zones. In this paper, criticisms of current surface analysis techniques and the usefulness of surface potential temperature analyses are discussed. Case examples are used to compare potential temperature analyses and current National Centers for Environmental Prediction analyses. The 1-yr climatology of Sanders and Hoffman is reconstructed using a composite technique. Annual and seasonal mean potential temperature analyses over the continental United States, southern Canada, northern Mexico, and adjacent coastal waters are presented. In addition, gridpoint frequencies of moderate and strong potential temperature gradients are calculated. The results of the mean potential temperature analyses show that moderate and strong surface baroclinic zones are favored along the coastlines and the slopes of the North American cordillera. Additional subsynoptic details, not found in Sanders and Hoffman, are identified. The availability of the composite results allows for the calculation of potential temperature gradient anomalies. It is shown that these anomalies can be used to identify significant frontal baroclinic zones that are associated with weak potential temperature gradients. Together the results and reviews in this paper show that surface potential temperature analyses are a valuable forecasting and analysis tool allowing analysts to distinguish and identify fronts, baroclinic troughs, and nonfrontal baroclinic zones.

Beschreibung: The nature of the different types of surface boundaries that appear in the southern plains of the United States during the convectively active season is reviewed. The following boundaries are discussed: fronts, the dryline, troughs, and outflow boundaries, The boundaries are related to their environment and to local topography. The role these boundaries might play in the initiation of convective storms is emphasized. The various types of boundary-related vertical circulations and their dynamics are discussed. In particular, quasigeostrophic and semigeostrophic dynamics, and the dynamics of solenoidal circulations, density currents, boundary layers, and gravity waves are considered. Miscellaneous topics pertinent to convective storms and their relationship to surface boundaries such as along-the-boundary variability, boundary collisions, and the role of vertical shear are also discussed. Although some cases of storm initiation along surface boundaries have been well documented using research datasets collected during comprehensive field experiments, much of what we know is based only on empirical forecasting and nowcasting experience. It is suggested that many problems relating to convective-storm formation need to be explored in detail using real datasets with new observing systems and techniques, in conjunction with numerical simulation studies, and through climatological studies.

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: This paper begins with a review of basic surface frontogenesis concepts with an emphasis on fronts located over sloping terrain adjacent to mountain barriers and fronts located in large-scale baroclinic zones close to coastlines. The impact of cold-air damming and differential diabatic heating and cooling on frontogenesis is considered through two detailed case studies of intense surface fronts. The first case, from 17 to 18 April 2002, featured the westward passage of a cold (side-door) front across coastal eastern New England in which 15°–20°C temperature decreases were observed in less than one hour. The second case, from 28 February to 4 March 1972, featured a long-lived front that affected most of the United States from the Rockies to the Atlantic coast and was noteworthy for a 50°C temperature contrast between Kansas and southern Manitoba, Canada. In the April 2002 case most of New England was initially covered by an unusually warm, dry air mass. Dynamical anticyclogenesis over eastern Canada set the stage for a favorable pressure gradient to allow chilly marine air to approach coastal New England from the east. Diabatic cooling over the chilly (5°–8°C) waters of the Gulf of Maine allowed surface pressures to remain relatively high offshore while diabatic heating over the land (31°–33°C temperatures) enabled surface pressures to fall relative to over the ocean. The resulting higher pressures offshore resulted in an onshore cold push. Frontal intensity was likely enhanced prior to leaf out and grass green-up as virtually all of the available insolation went into sensible heating. The large-scale environment in the February–March 1972 case favored the accumulation of bitterly cold arctic air in Canada. Frontal formation occurred over northern Montana and North Dakota as the arctic air moved slowly southward in conjunction with surface pressure rises east of the Canadian Rockies. The arctic air accelerated southward subsequent to lee cyclogenesis–induced pressure falls ahead of an upstream trough that crossed the Rockies. The southward acceleration of the arctic air was also facilitated by dynamic anticyclogenesis in southern Canada beneath a poleward jet-entrance region. Frontal intensity varied diurnally in response to differential diabatic heating. Three types of cyclogenesis events were observed over the lifetime of the event: 1) low-amplitude frontal waves with no upper-level support, 2) low-amplitude frontal waves that formed in a jet-entrance region, and 3) cyclones that formed ahead of advancing upper-level troughs. All cyclones were either nondeveloping or weak developments despite extreme baroclinicity, likely the result of large atmospheric static stability in the arctic frontal zone and unfavorable alongfront stretching deformation. Significant frontal–mountain interactions were observed over the Rockies and the Appalachians.

Beschreibung: Over 50 yr have passed since the publication of Sanders' 1955 study, the first quantitative study of the structure and dynamics of a surface cold front. The purpose of this chapter is to reexamine some of the results of that study in light of modern methods of numerical weather prediction and diagnosis. A simulation with a resolution as high as 6-km horizontal grid spacing was performed with the fifth-generation-Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5), given initial and lateral boundary conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Precipitation-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis project data from 17 to 18 April 1953. The MM5 produced a reasonable simulation af the front, albeit its strength was not as intense and its movement was not as fast as was analyzed by Sanders. The vertical structure of the front differed from that analyzed by Sanders in several significant ways. First, the strongest horizontal temperature gradient associated with the cold front in the simulation occurred above a surface-based inversion, not at the earth's surface. Second, the ascent plume at the leading edge of the front was deeper and more intense than that analyzed by Sanders. The reason was an elevated mixed layer that had moved over the surface cold front in the simulation, allowing a much deeper vertical circulation than was analyzed by Sanders. This structure is similar to that of Australian cold fronts with their deep, well-mixed, prefrontal surface layer. These two differences between the model simulation and the analysis by Sanders may be because upper-air data from Fort Worth, Texas, was unavailable to Sanders. Third, the elevated mixed layer also meant that isentropes along the leading edge of the front extended vertically. Fourth, the field of frontogenesis of the horizontal temperature gradient calculated from the three-dimensional wind differed in that the magnitude of the maximum of the deformation term was larger than the magnitude of the maximum of the tilting term in the simulation, in contrast to Sanders' analysis and other previously published cases. These two discrepancies may be attributable to the limited horizontal resolution of the data that Sanders used in constructing his cross section. Last, a deficiency of the model simulation was that the postfrontal surface superadiabatic layer in the model did not match the observed well-mixed boundary layer. This result raises the question of the origin of the well-mixed postfrontal boundary layer behind cold fronts. To address this question, an additional model simulation without surface fluxes was performed, producing a well-mixed, not superadiabatic, layer. This result suggests that surface fluxes were not necessary for the development of the well-mixed layer, in agreement with previous research. Analysis of this event also amplifies two research themes that Sanders returned to later in his career, First, a prefrontal wind shift occurred in both the observations and model simulation at stations in western Oklahoma. This prefrontal wind shift was caused by a lee cyclone departing the leeward slopes of the Rockies slightly equatorward of the cold front, rather than along the front as was the case farther eastward. Sanders' later research showed how the occurrence of these prefrontal wind shifts leads to the weakening of fronts. Second, this study shows the advantage of using surface potential temperature, rather than surface temperature, for determining the locations of the surface fronts on sloping terrain.

Beschreibung: Today, even with state-of-the-art observational, data assimilation, and modeling systems run routinely on supercomputers, there are often surprises in the prediction of snowstorms, especially the “big ones,” affecting coastal regions of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. Little did the author know that lessons from Fred Sanders' synoptic meteorology class at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1967) would later (late 1980s) inspire him to pursue practical issues of predictability in the context of the development of ensemble prediction systems, strategies, and applications for providing information on the inevitable case-dependent uncertainties in forecasts. This paper is a brief qualitative and somewhat colloquial overview, based upon this author's personal involvement and experiences, intended to highlight some basic aspects of the source and nature of uncertainties in forecasts and to illustrate the sort of value added information ensembles can provide in dealing with uncertainties in predictions of East Coast snowstorms.

Beschreibung: One characteristic of Fred Sanders' research is his ability to take a topic that is believed to be well understood by the research community and show that interesting research problems still exist. Among Sanders' considerable contributions to synoptic meteorology, those concerned with surface cold fronts have been especially influential. After a brief historical review of fronts and frontal analysis, this chapter presents three stages in Sanders' career when he performed research on the structure, dynamics, and analysis of surface cold fronts. First, his 1955 paper, "An investigation of the structure and dynamics of an intense surface frontal zone," was the first study to discuss quantitatively the dynamics of a surface cold front. In the 1960s, Sanders and his students further examined the structure of cold fronts, resulting in the unpublished 1967 report to the National Science Foundation, "Frontal structure and the dynamics of frontogenesis." For a third lime in his career, Sanders published several papers (1995–2005) revisiting the structure and dynamics of cold fronts. His 1967 and 1995–2005 work raises the question of the origin and dynamics of the surface pressure trough and/or wind shift that sometimes precedes the temperature gradient (hereafter called a prefrontal trough or prefrontal wind shift, respectively). Sanders showed that the relationship between this prefrontal feature and the temperature gradient is fundamental to the strength of the front. When the wind shift is coincident with the temperature gradient, frontogenesis (strengthening of the front) results; when the wind shift lies ahead of the temperature gradient, frontolysis (weakening of the front) results. a number of proposed mechanisms for the formation of prefrontal troughs and prefrontal wind shifts exist. Consequently, much research remains to be performed on these topics.