ALBERT

Description: "With so much media and political criticism of their shortcomings and failures, it is easy to overlook the fact that many governments work pretty well much of the time. Great Policy Successes turns the spotlight on instances of public policy that are remarkably successful. It develops a framework for identifying and assessing policy successes, paying attention not just to their programmatic outcomes but also to the quality of the processes by which policies are designed and delivered, the level of support and legitimacy they attain, and the extent to which successful performance endures over time. The bulk of the book is then devoted to 15 detailed case studies of striking policy successes from around the world, including Singapore's public health system, Copenhagen and Melbourne's rise from stilted backwaters to the highly liveable and dynamic urban centres they are today, Brazil's Bolsa Familia poverty relief scheme, the US's GI Bill, and Germany's breakthrough labour market reforms of the 2000s. Each case is set in context, its main actors are introduced, key events and decisions are described, the assessment framework is applied to gauge the nature and level of its success, key contributing factors to success are identified, and potential lessons and future challenges are identified. Purposefully avoiding the kind of heavy theorizing that characterizes many accounts of public policy processes, each case is written in an accessible and narrative style ideally suited for classroom use in conjunction with mainstream textbooks on public policy design, implementation, and evaluation.

Description: We present the analysis of rotational and translational ground motions from earthquakes recorded during October–November 2016, in association with the Central Italy seismic sequence. We use co-located measurements of the vertical ground rotation rate from a large ring laser gyroscope and the three components of ground velocity from a broad-band seismometer. Both instruments are positioned in a deep underground environment, within the Gran Sasso National Laboratories of the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare. We collected dozens of events spanning the 3.5–5.9 magnitude range and epicentral distances between 30 and 70 km. This data set constitutes an unprecedented observation of the vertical rotational motions associated with an intense seismic sequence at local distance. Under the plane-wave approximation we process the data set in order to get an experimental estimation of the events backazimuth. Peak values of rotation rate (PRR) and horizontal acceleration (PGA) are markedly correlated, according to a scaling constant which is consistent with previous measurements from different earthquake sequences. We used a prediction model in use for Italy to calculate the expected PGA at the recording site, obtaining consequently predictions for PRR. Within the modelling uncertainties, predicted rotations are consistent with the observed ones, suggesting the possibility of establishing specific attenuation models for ground rotations, like the scaling of peak velocity and peak acceleration in empirical ground-motion prediction relationships. In a second step, after identifying the direction of the incoming wavefield, we extract phase-velocity data using the spectral ratio of the translational and rotational components. This analysis is performed over time windows associated with the P-coda, S-coda and Lg phase. Results are consistent with independent estimates of shear wave velocities in the shallow crust of the Central Apennines

Description: Published

Description: 705-715

Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The first in situ measurements of seawater density that referred to a geographical position at sea and time of the year were carried out by Count Luigi Ferdinando Marsili between 1679 and 1680 in the Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Marmara Sea, and the Bosporus. Not only was this the first investigation with documented oceanographic measurements carried out at stations, but themeasurements were described in such an accurateway that the authorswere able to reconstruct the observations in modern units. These first measurements concern the ‘‘specific gravity’’ of seawaters (i.e., the ratio between fluid densities). The data reported in the historical oceanographic treatise Osservazioni intorno al Bosforo Tracio (Marsili) allowed the reconstruction of the seawater density at different geographic locations between 1679 and 1680. Marsili’s experimental methodology included the collection of surface and deep water samples, the analysis of the samples with a hydrostatic ampoule, and the use of a reference water to standardize the measurements.Acomparison of reconstructed densities with present-day values shows an agreement within 10%–20% uncertainty, owing to various aspects of the measurement methodology that are difficult to reconstruct from the documentary evidence. Marsili also measured the current speed and the depth of the current inversion in the Bosporus, which are consistent with the present-day knowledge. The experimental data collected in the Bosporus enabledMarsili to enunciate a theory on the cause of the two-layer flow at the strait, demonstrated by his laboratory experiment and later confirmed by many analytical and numerical studies.

Description: American Meteorological Society.

Description: Published

Description: 845 - 860

Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.

Description: Mud volcanoes are geological systems often characterized by elevated fluid pressures at depth deviating from hydrostatic conditions. This near-critical state makes mud volcanoes particularly sensitive to external forcing induced by natural or man-made perturbations. We used the Nirano mud volcanic field as a natural laboratory to test pre- and post-seismic effects generated by distant earthquakes.We first characterized the subsurface structure of the Nirano mud volcanic field with a geoelectrical study. Next, we deployed a broad-band seismic station in the area to understand the typical seismic signal generated by the mud volcano. Seismic records show a background noise below 2 s, sometimes interrupted by pulses of drumbeatlike high-frequency signals lasting from several minutes to hours. To date this is the first observation of drumbeat signal observed in mud volcanoes. In 2013 June we recorded a M4.7 earthquake, that occurred approximately 60 km far from our seismic station. According to empirical estimations the Nirano mud volcanic field should not have been affected by the M4.7 earthquake. Yet, before the seismic event we recorded an increasing amplitude of the signal in the 10–20 Hz frequency band. The signal emerged approximately two hours before the earthquake and lasted for about three hours. Our statistical analysis suggests the presence of a possible precursory signal about 10 min before the earthquake.

Description: Published

Description: 907–917

Description: 7A. Geofisica per il monitoraggio ambientale

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in he balance of salinity variance in a partially stratified estuary: Implications for exchange flow, mixing, and stratification. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 48(12), (2018) 2887-2899., doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-18-0032.1.

Description: Salinity variance dissipation is related to exchange flow through the salinity variance balance equation, and meanwhile its magnitude is also proportional to the turbulence production and stratification inside the estuary. As river flow increases, estuarine volume-integrated salinity variance dissipation increases owing to more variance input from the open boundaries driven by exchange flow and river flow. This corresponds to the increased efficient conversion of turbulence production to salinity variance dissipation due to the intensified stratification with higher river flow. Through the spring–neap cycle, the temporal variation of salinity variance dissipation is more dependent on stratification than turbulence production, so it reaches its maximum during the transition from neap to spring tides. During most of the transition time from spring to neap tides, the advective input of salinity variance from the open boundaries is larger than dissipation, resulting in the net increase of variance, which is mainly expressed as vertical variance, that is, stratification. The intensified stratification in turn increases salinity variance dissipation. During neap tides, a large amount of enhanced salinity variance dissipation is induced by the internal shear stress near the halocline. During most of the transition time from neap to spring tides, dissipation becomes larger than the advective input, so salinity variance decreases and the stratification is destroyed.

Description: TW was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant 2017YFA0604104), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41706002), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Grant BK20170864), and MEL Visiting Fellowship (MELRS1617). WRG was supported by NSF Grant OCE 1736539. Part of this work is finished during TW’s visit in MEL and WHOI. We would like to acknowledge John Warner for providing the codes of the Hudson estuary model, and Parker MacCready, the editor, and two reviewers for their insightful suggestions on improving the manuscript.

Description: 2019-06-06

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Monthly Weather Review 147(1), (2019): 389-406. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0158.1.

Description: The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is stratified by stratospheric zonal wind direction and height into four phase pairs [easterly midstratospheric winds (QBOEM), easterly lower-stratospheric winds, westerly midstratospheric winds (QBOWM), and westerly lower-stratospheric winds] using an empirical orthogonal function analysis of daily stratospheric (100–10 hPa) zonal wind data during 1980–2017. Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) events in which the MJO convective envelope moved eastward across the Maritime Continent (MC) during 1980–2017 are identified using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) MJO index (OMI). Comparison of RMM amplitudes by the QBO phase pair over the MC (RMM phases 4 and 5) reveals that boreal winter MJO events have the strongest amplitudes during QBOEM and the weakest amplitudes during QBOWM, which is consistent with QBO-driven differences in upper-tropospheric lower-stratospheric (UTLS) static stability. Additionally, boreal winter RMM events over the MC strengthen during QBOEM and weaken during QBOWM. In the OMI, those amplitude changes generally shift eastward to the eastern MC and western Pacific Ocean, which may result from differences in RMM and OMI index methodologies. During boreal summer, as the northeastward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) becomes the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability, these relationships are reversed. Zonal differences in UTLS stability anomalies are consistent with amplitude changes of eastward-propagating MJO events across the MC during boreal winter, and meridional stability differences are consistent with amplitude changes of northeastward-propagating BSISO events during boreal summer. Results remain consistent when stratifying by neutral ENSO phase.

Description: The authors are grateful for the funding provided by the Office of Naval Research Propagation of Intra-Seasonal Tropical Oscillations (ONR PISTON) Award N0001416WX01752 and the USNA Trident Scholar program. The authors also appreciate the helpful comments of the two external reviewers.

Description: 2019-07-07

Description: The ozonesonde is a small balloon-borne instrument that is attached to a standard radiosonde to measure profiles of ozone from the surface to 35 km with ∼100-m vertical resolution. Ozonesonde data constitute a mainstay of satellite calibration and are used for climatologies and analysis of trends, especially in the lower stratosphere where satellites are most uncertain. The electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozonesonde has been deployed at ∼100 stations worldwide since the 1960s, with changes over time in manufacture and procedures, including details of the cell chemical solution and data processing. As a consequence, there are biases among different stations and discontinuities in profile time series from individual site records. For 22 years the Jülich (Germany) Ozonesonde Intercomparison Experiment (JOSIE) has periodically tested ozonesondes in a simulation chamber designated the World Calibration Centre for Ozonesondes (WCCOS) by WMO. During October–November 2017 a JOSIE campaign evaluated the sondes and procedures used in Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ), a 14-station sonde network operating in the tropics and subtropics. A distinctive feature of the 2017 JOSIE was that the tests were conducted by operators from eight SHADOZ stations. Experimental protocols for the SHADOZ sonde configurations, which represent most of those in use today, are described, along with preliminary results. SHADOZ stations that follow WMO-recommended protocols record total ozone within 3% of the JOSIE reference instrument. These results and prior JOSIEs demonstrate that regular testing is essential to maintain best practices in ozonesonde operations and to ensure high-quality data for the satellite and ozone assessment communities.

Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.

Description: The Amatrice–Norcia–Visso sequence is characterized by complex behaviour that is somewhat atypical of main-shock–aftershock sequences, as there were multiple large main shocks that continued for months. In this study we focus on the Amatrice sequence (main shock 2016 August 24, Mw = 5.97) to evaluate the apparent stress values and magnitude-dependent scaling in order to improve our knowledge of processes that control small and large earthquakes within this active region of Italy. Apparent stress is proportional to the ratio of radiated seismic energy and seismic moment, and as such, these stress parameters play an important role in hazard prediction as they have a strong effect on the observed and predicted ground shaking. We analyse 83 events of the sequence from 2016 August 24 to October 16, within a radius of 20 km from the main shock and with an Mw ranging between 5.97 and 2.72. Taking advantage of the averaging nature of coda waves, we analyse coda-envelope-based spectral ratios between neighbouring event pairs.We use equations proposed byWalter et al. to consider stable, low-frequency and high-frequency spectral ratio levelswhich provide measures of the corner frequency and apparent stress ratios of the events within the sequence. The results demonstrate non-self-similar behaviour within the sequence, suggesting a change in dynamics between the largest events and the smaller aftershocks. The apparent stress and corner frequency estimates are compared to those obtained by Malagnini and Munaf`o who utilized hundreds of direct S-wave spectral ratio measurements to obtain their results. Although our analysis is based only on 83 events, our results are in very good agreement, demonstrating once more that the use of coda waves is very stable and provides lower variance measures than those using direct waves. A comparison with recent Central Apennines source scaling models derived from various seismic sequences (1997–1998 Colfiorito, 2002 San Giuliano di Puglia, 2009 L’Aquila) shows that the Amatrice sequence source scaling in this study is well represented by the models proposed by Pacor et al. and Malagnini and Mayeda.

Description: Published

Description: 446-455

Description: 3T. Sorgente sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(7), (2019): 1889-1904, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0053.1.

Description: A high-resolution numerical model, together with in situ and satellite observations, is used to explore the nature and dynamics of the dominant high-frequency (from one day to one week) variability in Denmark Strait. Mooring measurements in the center of the strait reveal that warm water “flooding events” occur, whereby the North Icelandic Irminger Current (NIIC) propagates offshore and advects subtropical-origin water northward through the deepest part of the sill. Two other types of mesoscale processes in Denmark Strait have been described previously in the literature, known as “boluses” and “pulses,” associated with a raising and lowering of the overflow water interface. Our measurements reveal that flooding events occur in conjunction with especially pronounced pulses. The model indicates that the NIIC hydrographic front is maintained by a balance between frontogenesis by the large-scale flow and frontolysis by baroclinic instability. Specifically, the temperature and salinity tendency equations demonstrate that the eddies act to relax the front, while the mean flow acts to sharpen it. Furthermore, the model reveals that the two dense water processes—boluses and pulses (and hence flooding events)—are dynamically related to each other and tied to the meandering of the hydrographic front in the strait. Our study thus provides a general framework for interpreting the short-time-scale variability of Denmark Strait Overflow Water entering the Irminger Sea.

Description: MAS was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grants OCE-1558742 and OCE-1534618. RSP, PL, and DM were supported by NSF under Grants OCE-1558742 and OCE-1259618. WJvA was supported by the Helmholtz Infrastructure Initiative FRAM. TWNH and MA were supported by NSF under Grants OCE-1633124 and OCE-118123.

Description: 2020-07-01

Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of The Royal Astronomical Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Journal International 218(3), (2019): 1822-1837, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggz253.

Description: Joint inversion of multiple electromagnetic data sets, such as controlled source electromagnetic and magnetotelluric data, has the potential to significantly reduce uncertainty in the inverted electrical resistivity when the two data sets contain complementary information about the subsurface. However, evaluating quantitatively the model uncertainty reduction is made difficult by the fact that conventional inversion methods—using gradients and model regularization—typically produce just one model, with no associated estimate of model parameter uncertainty. Bayesian inverse methods can provide quantitative estimates of inverted model parameter uncertainty by generating an ensemble of models, sampled proportional to data fit. The resulting posterior distribution represents a combination of a priori assumptions about the model parameters and information contained in field data. Bayesian inversion is therefore able to quantify the impact of jointly inverting multiple data sets by using the statistical information contained in the posterior distribution. We illustrate, for synthetic data generated from a simple 1-D model, the shape of parameter space compatible with controlled source electromagnetic and magnetotelluric data, separately and jointly. We also demonstrate that when data sets contain complementary information about the model, the region of parameter space compatible with the joint data set is less than or equal to the intersection of the regions compatible with the individual data sets. We adapt a trans-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for jointly inverting multiple electromagnetic data sets for 1-D earth models and apply it to surface-towed controlled source electromagnetic and magnetotelluric data collected offshore New Jersey, USA, to evaluate the extent of a low salinity aquifer within the continental shelf. Our inversion results identify a region of high resistivity of varying depth and thickness in the upper 500 m of the continental shelf, corroborating results from a previous study that used regularized, gradient-based inversion methods. We evaluate the joint model parameter uncertainty in comparison to the uncertainty obtained from the individual data sets and demonstrate quantitatively that joint inversion offers reduced uncertainty. In addition, we show how the Bayesian model ensemble can subsequently be used to derive uncertainty estimates of pore water salinity within the low salinity aquifer.

Description: We gratefully acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation grants 1458392 and 1459035. We thank the captain and crew of the R.V. Marcus G. Langseth for a successful cruise and the Marine EM Lab at Scripps Institution of Oceanography for providing the instrumentation. We also thank Chris Armerding, Marah Dahn, John Desanto, Jimmy Elsenbeck, Matt Folsom, Keiichi Ishizu, Jeff Pepin, Charlotte Wiman and Georgie Zelenak for participating in the cruise. We gratefully acknowledge Alberto Malinverno for the idea to use a Monte Carlo scheme to estimate the distribution of pore fluid salinity, and William Menke for many constructive conversations and suggestions.

Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of The Royal Astronomical Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Journal International 218(3), (2019): 2122-2135, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggz272.

Description: We have conducted the first passive Ocean Bottom Seismograph (OBS) experiment near the Challenger Deep at the southernmost Mariana subduction zone by deploying and recovering an array of 6 broad-band OBSs during December 2016–June 2017. The obtained passive-source seismic records provide the first-ever near-field seismic observations in the southernmost Mariana subduction zone. We first correct clock errors of the OBS recordings based on both teleseismic waveforms and ambient noise cross-correlation. We then perform matched filter earthquake detection using 53 template events in the catalogue of the US Geological Survey and find 〉7000 local earthquakes during the 6-month OBS deployment period. Results of the two independent approaches show that the maximum clock drifting was ∼2 s on one instrument (OBS PA01), while the rest of OBS waveforms had negligible time drifting. After timing correction, we locate the detected earthquakes using a newly refined local velocity model that was derived from a companion active source experiment in the same region. In total, 2004 earthquakes are located with relatively high resolution. Furthermore, we calibrate the magnitudes of the detected earthquakes by measuring the relative amplitudes to their nearest relocated templates on all OBSs and acquire a high-resolution local earthquake catalogue. The magnitudes of earthquakes in our new catalogue range from 1.1 to 5.6. The earthquakes span over the Southwest Mariana rift, the megathrust interface, forearc and outer-rise regions. While most earthquakes are shallow, depths of the slab earthquakes increase from ∼100 to ∼240 km from west to east towards Guam. We also delineate the subducting interface from seismicity distribution and find an increasing trend in dip angles from west to east. The observed along-strike variation in slab dip angles and its downdip extents provide new constraints on geodynamic processes of the southernmost Mariana subduction zone.

Description: We express our appreciation to the science parties and crew members of the R/V Shiyan 3 for deployment and collection of the OBS instruments during the Mariana expeditions. This study is supported by the Hong Kong Research Grant Council Grants (No. 14313816), Faculty of Science at CUHK, Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. Y4SL021001, QYZDY-SSW-DQC005, 133244KYSB20180029), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41890813, 91628301, 41676042, U1701641, 41576041, 91858207 and U1606401), the National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFC0309800 and 2018YFC0310100). Generic Mapping Tools (Wessel & Smith 1991) and PSSAC (developed by Prof Lupei Zhu) are used for data analysis and figure preparation in this study. Constructive comments from Dr Lidong Bie and two anonymous reviewers are helpful in improving the manuscript.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 6(4), (2018): 144. doi:10.3390/jmse6040144.

Description: Geochronologies derived from sediment cores in coastal locations are often used to infer event bed characteristics such as deposit thicknesses and accumulation rates. Such studies commonly use naturally occurring, short-lived radioisotopes, such as Beryllium-7 (7Be) and Thorium-234 (234Th), to study depositional and post-depositional processes. These radioisotope activities, however, are not generally represented in sediment transport models that characterize coastal flood and storm deposition with grain size patterns and deposit thicknesses. We modified the Community Sediment Transport Modeling System (CSTMS) to account for reactive tracers and used this capability to represent the behavior of these short-lived radioisotopes on the sediment bed. This paper describes the model and presents results from a set of idealized, one-dimensional (vertical) test cases. The model configuration represented fluvial deposition followed by periods of episodic storm resuspension. Sensitivity tests explored the influence on seabed radioisotope profiles by the intensities of bioturbation and wave resuspension and the thickness of fluvial deposits. The intensity of biodiffusion affected the persistence of fluvial event beds as evidenced by 7Be. Both resuspension and biodiffusion increased the modeled seabed inventory of 234Th. A thick fluvial deposit increased the seabed inventory of 7Be and 234Th but mixing over time greatly reduced the difference in inventory of 234Th in fluvial deposits of different thicknesses.

Description: The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) provided funding for Birchler, Harris, and Kniskern. During his M.S. program Birchler received additional funds from VIMS’ Office of Academic Studies. This work was partially supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, Coastal and Marine Geology Program.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 32(2), (2019): 549-573. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0413.1.

Description: Time series of surface meteorology and air–sea fluxes from the northern Bay of Bengal are analyzed, quantifying annual and seasonal means, variability, and the potential for surface fluxes to contribute significantly to variability in surface temperature and salinity. Strong signals were associated with solar insolation and its modulation by cloud cover, and, in the 5- to 50-day range, with intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). The northeast (NE) monsoon (DJF) was typically cloud free, with strong latent heat loss and several moderate wind events, and had the only seasonal mean ocean heat loss. The spring intermonsoon (MAM) was cloud free and had light winds and the strongest ocean heating. Strong ISOs and Tropical Cyclone Komen were seen in the southwest (SW) monsoon (JJA), when 65% of the 2.2-m total rain fell, and oceanic mean heating was small. The fall intermonsoon (SON) initially had moderate convective systems and mean ocean heating, with a transition to drier winds and mean ocean heat loss in the last month. Observed surface freshwater flux applied to a layer of the observed thickness produced drops in salinity with timing and magnitude similar to the initial drops in salinity in the summer monsoon, but did not reproduce the salinity variability of the fall intermonsoon. Observed surface heat flux has the potential to cause the temperature trends of the different seasons, but uncertainty in how shortwave radiation is absorbed in the upper ocean limits quantifying the role of surface forcing in the evolution of mixed layer temperature.

Description: The deployment of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) mooring and RW and JTF were supported by the U.S. Office of Naval Research, Grant N00014-13-1-0453. DS acknowledges support from the Ministry of Earth Sciences under India’s National Monsoon Mission. HS acknowledges support from the Office of Naval Research Grants N00014-13-1-0453 and N00014-17-12398. The deployment of the WHOI mooring was done by RV Sagar Nidhi and the recovery by RV Sagar Kanya; the help of the crew and science parties is gratefully acknowledged as is the ongoing support at NIOT in Chennai and by other colleagues in India of this mooring work. The work of the staff of the WHOI Upper Ocean Process Group in the design, building, deployment, and recovery of the mooring and in processing the data is gratefully acknowledged. The software for the wavelet analysis was provided by Torrence and Compo (1998). Feedback on the paper by Dr. Amit Tandon and two anonymous reviewers is gratefully acknowledged. This paper is dedicated to Dr. Frank Bradley.

Description: 2019-06-28

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography, 49 (2), (2019): 607-630, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-18-0166.1.

Description: The Lagrangian motion in the eddy field produced from an unstable retrograde jet along the shelf break is studied from idealized numerical experiments with a primitive equation model. The jet is initially in thermal wind balance with a cross-isobath density gradient and is not subjected to any atmospheric forcing. Over the course of the model integration, the jet becomes unstable and produces a quasi-stationary eddy field over a 2-month period. During this period, the cross-slope flow at the shelf break is characterized by along-slope correlation scales of O(10) km and temporal correlation scales of a few days. The relative dispersion of parcels across isobaths is found to increase with time as tb, where 1 〈 b 〈 2. This mixed diffusive–ballistic regime appears to reflect the combined effects of (i) the short length scales of velocity correlation at the shelf break and (ii) the seaward excursion of monopolar and dipolar vortices. Cross-slope dispersion is greater offshore of the front than inshore of the front, as offshore parcels are both subducted onshore below density surfaces and translated offshore with eddies. Nonetheless, the exchange of parcels across the jet remains very limited on the monthly time scale. Particles originating from the bottom experience upward displacements of a few tens of meters and seaward displacements of O(100) km, suggesting that the eddy activity engendered by an unstable along-slope jet provides another mechanism for bottom boundary layer detachment near the shelf edge.

Description: The author expresses his gratitude to the researchers who contributed to the development and public dissemination of POM [for a list of contributors, see Mellor (2002) and comments in the source code]. Discussions with Kenneth Brink, Hyodae Seo, and Weifeng Zhang have been helpful. Comments provided by Kenneth Brink on a draft are gratefully acknowledged. The criticism from two anonymous reviewers allowed us to better focus the manuscript and to significantly improve its clarity. This work has been supported by Grant OCE-1556400 from the U.S. National Science Foundation.

Description: 2020-02-18

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(6), (2019): 1577-1592, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-18-0124.1.

Description: The main source feeding the abyssal circulation of the North Pacific is the deep, northward flow of 5–6 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) through the Samoan Passage. A recent field campaign has shown that this flow is hydraulically controlled and that it experiences hydraulic jumps accompanied by strong mixing and dissipation concentrated near several deep sills. By our estimates, the diapycnal density flux associated with this mixing is considerably larger than the diapycnal flux across a typical isopycnal surface extending over the abyssal North Pacific. According to historical hydrographic observations, a second source of abyssal water for the North Pacific is 2.3–2.8 Sv of the dense flow that is diverted around the Manihiki Plateau to the east, bypassing the Samoan Passage. This bypass flow is not confined to a channel and is therefore less likely to experience the strong mixing that is associated with hydraulic transitions. The partitioning of flux between the two branches of the deep flow could therefore be relevant to the distribution of Pacific abyssal mixing. To gain insight into the factors that control the partitioning between these two branches, we develop an abyssal and equator-proximal extension of the “island rule.” Novel features include provisions for the presence of hydraulic jumps as well as identification of an appropriate integration circuit for an abyssal layer to the east of the island. Evaluation of the corresponding circulation integral leads to a prediction of 0.4–2.4 Sv of bypass flow. The circulation integral clearly identifies dissipation and frictional drag effects within the Samoan Passage as crucial elements in partitioning the flow.

Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants OCE-1029268, OCE-1029483, OCE-1657264, OCE-1657870, OCE-1658027, and OCE-1657795. We thank the captain, crew, and engineers at APL/UW for their hard work and skill.

Description: 2020-06-11

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(9), (2019): 2337-2343, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0097.1.

Description: The weakly unstable, two-layer model of baroclinic instability is studied in a configuration in which the flow is perturbed at the inflow section of a channel by a slow and periodic perturbation. In a parameter regime where the governing equation would be the Lorenz equations for chaos if the development occurs only in time, the solution behavior becomes considerably more complex as a function of time and downstream coordinate. In the absence of the beta effect it has earlier been shown that the chaotic behavior along characteristics renders the solution nearly discontinuous in the slow downstream coordinate of the asymptotic model. The additional presence of the beta effect, although expunging the chaos for large enough values of the beta parameter, also provides an additional mechanism for abrupt spatial change.

Description: 2020-02-28

Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2019. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Oxford University Press for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in ICES Journal of Marine Science 76(4), (2010): 781-786, doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsy194.

Description: Whales are federally protected by the Marine Mammal Protection Act; endangered species, such as the North Atlantic right whale, receive additional protection under the Endangered Species Act. However, their regulations have failed to satisfy conservation and animal welfare concerns. From 1990 to 2011 the North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis, NARW) population grew at a mean of 2.8% annually. However, population trends reversed since 2011; the species is in decline, with only ∼100 reproductively active females remaining. This failure is driven by vessel collisions and increasingly fatal and serious entanglement in fixed fishing gear, whose rope strength has increased substantially. Chronic entanglement, drag, and associated morbidity have been linked to poor fecundity. Genuine solutions involve designating areas to be avoided and speed restrictions for ships and removing fishing trap ropes from the water column. A trap fishing closure for NARW habitat in the Cape Cod Bay (U.S.) area has been in place seasonally since 2015. 2017 mortalities in Eastern Canada elicited substantive management changes whereby the 2018 presence of NARW in active trap fishing areas resulted in an effective closure. To avoid these costly closures, the traditional trap fishery model of rope end lines attached to surface marker buoys has to be modified so that traps are marked virtually, and retrieved with gear that does not remain in the water column except during trap retrieval. Consumer demand for genuinely whale-safe products will augment and encourage the necessary regulatory changes so that trap fisheries conserve target and nontarget species.

Description: I thank Mark Baumgartner, Scott Kraus, Tim Werner, Amy Knowlton, Heather Pettis, Scott Landry, Stormy Mayo, Fred Penney, and Beth Casoni for discussions on this topic and Natalie Renier for drawing Figures 5 and 6. Funding was provided by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Independent Research and Development Program.

Description: 2020-01-10

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 76(10), (2019): 3013-3027, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-19-0095.1.

Description: Recently Nakamura and Huang proposed a semiempirical, one-dimensional model of atmospheric blocking based on the observed budget of local wave activity in the boreal winter. The model dynamics is akin to that of traffic flow, wherein blocking manifests as traffic jams when the streamwise flux of local wave activity reaches capacity. Stationary waves modulate the jet stream’s capacity to transmit transient waves and thereby localize block formation. Since the model is inexpensive to run numerically, it is suited for computing blocking statistics as a function of climate variables from large-ensemble, parameter sweep experiments. We explore sensitivity of blocking statistics to (i) stationary wave amplitude, (ii) background jet speed, and (iii) transient eddy forcing, using frequency, persistence, and prevalence as metrics. For each combination of parameters we perform 240 runs of 180-day simulations with aperiodic transient eddy forcing, each time randomizing the phase relations in forcing. The model climate shifts rapidly from a block-free state to a block-dominant state as the stationary wave amplitude is increased and/or the jet speed is decreased. When eddy forcing is increased, prevalence increases similarly but frequency decreases as blocks merge and become more persistent. It is argued that the present-day climate lies close to the boundary of the two states and hence its blocking statistics are sensitive to climate perturbations. The result underscores the low confidence in GCM-based assessment of the future trend of blocking under a changing climate, while it also provides a theoretical basis for evaluating model biases and understanding trends in reanalysis data.

Description: The main results of this paper emerged from a group project during Rossbypalooza, a student-led summer school at the University of Chicago in June 2018, with the theme of “Understanding climate through simple models.” The authors thank the participants of the summer school for their valuable feedback. Constructive criticisms of the two anonymous reviewers greatly improved the quality of the manuscript. The work is supported by NSF Grants AGS1563307 and AGS1810964

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(7), (2019): 1973-1994, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-18-0194.1.

Description: Using 18 days of field observations, we investigate the diurnal (D1) frequency wave dynamics on the Tasmanian eastern continental shelf. At this latitude, the D1 frequency is subinertial and separable from the highly energetic near-inertial motion. We use a linear coastal-trapped wave (CTW) solution with the observed background current, stratification, and shelf bathymetry to determine the modal structure of the first three resonant CTWs. We associate the observed D1 velocity with a superimposed mode-zero and mode-one CTW, with mode one dominating mode zero. Both the observed and mode-one D1 velocity was intensified near the thermocline, with stronger velocities occurring when the thermocline stratification was stronger and/or the thermocline was deeper (up to the shelfbreak depth). The CTW modal structure and amplitude varied with the background stratification and alongshore current, with no spring–neap relationship evident for the observed 18 days. Within the surface and bottom Ekman layers on the shelf, the observed velocity phase changed in the cross-shelf and/or vertical directions, inconsistent with an alongshore propagating CTW. In the near-surface and near-bottom regions, the linear CTW solution also did not match the observed velocity, particularly within the bottom Ekman layer. Boundary layer processes were likely causing this observed inconsistency with linear CTW theory. As linear CTW solutions have an idealized representation of boundary dynamics, they should be cautiously applied on the shelf.

Description: An Australian Research Council Discovery Project (DP 140101322), and a UWA Research Collaboration Award funded this work. T. L. Schlosser acknowledges the support of an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship. We thank the crew, volunteers and scientists who aided in the field data collection aboard the R/V Revelle, which was funded by the National Science Foundation (OCE-1129763). The continental slope moorings, T4 (M32) and T3 (M44), were also funded by the National Science Foundation (OCE-1129763) and were conceived, planned, and executed by Matthew Alford, Jennifer Mackinnon, Jonathan Nash, Harper Simmons, and Gunnar Voet. We also thank Harper Simmons for the combined R/V Revelle multibeam and Geoscience Australia bathymetry used in this study. We thank the two anonymous reviewers whose comments improved this work.

Description: 2020-01-16

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Semper, S., Vage, K., Pickart, R. S., Valdimarsson, H., Torres, D. J., & Jonsson, S. The emergence of the North Icelandic Jet and its evolution from northeast Iceland to Denmark Strait. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 49(10), (2019): 2499-2521, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0088.1.

Description: The North Icelandic Jet (NIJ) is an important source of dense water to the overflow plume passing through Denmark Strait. The properties, structure, and transport of the NIJ are investigated for the first time along its entire pathway following the continental slope north of Iceland, using 13 hydrographic/velocity surveys of high spatial resolution conducted between 2004 and 2018. The comprehensive dataset reveals that the current originates northeast of Iceland and increases in volume transport by roughly 0.4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) per 100 km until 300 km upstream of Denmark Strait, at which point the highest transport is reached. The bulk of the NIJ transport is confined to a small area in Θ–S space centered near −0.29° ± 0.16°C in Conservative Temperature and 35.075 ± 0.006 g kg−1 in Absolute Salinity. While the hydrographic properties of this transport mode are not significantly modified along the NIJ’s pathway, the transport estimates vary considerably between and within the surveys. Neither a clear seasonal signal nor a consistent link to atmospheric forcing was found, but barotropic and/or baroclinic instability is likely active in the current. The NIJ displays a double-core structure in roughly 50% of the occupations, with the two cores centered at the 600- and 800-m isobaths, respectively. The transport of overflow water 300 km upstream of Denmark Strait exceeds 1.8 ± 0.3 Sv, which is substantially larger than estimates from a year-long mooring array and hydrographic/velocity surveys closer to the strait, where the NIJ merges with the separated East Greenland Current. This implies a more substantial contribution of the NIJ to the Denmark Strait overflow plume than previously envisaged.

Description: Six different research vessels were involved in the collection of the data used in this study: RRS James Clark Ross, R/V Knorr, R/V Bjarni Sæmundsson, R/V Håkon Mosby, NRV Alliance, and R/V Kristine Bonnevie. We thank the captain and crew of each of these vessels for their hard work as well as the many watch standers who have sailed on the cruises and helped collect the measurements. We also thank Frank Bahr for processing the VMADCP data collected on NRV Alliance and Magnús Danielsen for the processing of the hydrographic data collected on R/V Bjarni Sæmundsson. We acknowledge Leah Trafford McRaven for assistance with Fig. 1 and two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments, which improved the manuscript. Funding for the project was provided by the Bergen Research Foundation Grant BFS2016REK01 (K. Våge and S. Semper), the Norwegian Research Council under Grant Agreement 231647 (K. Våge), and the U.S. National Science Foundation Grants OCE-1259618 and OCE-1756361 (R. S. Pickart and D. J. Torres), as well as OCE-1558742 (R. S. Pickart). The dataset is available on PANGAEA under https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.903535.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 32(13), (2019): 3883-3898, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0735.1.

Description: While it has generally been understood that the production of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) impacts the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), this relationship has not been explored extensively or validated against observations. To explore this relationship, a suite of global ocean–sea ice models forced by the same interannually varying atmospheric dataset, varying in resolution from non-eddy-permitting to eddy-permitting (1°–1/4°), is analyzed to investigate the local and downstream relationships between LSW formation and the MOC on interannual to decadal time scales. While all models display a strong relationship between changes in the LSW volume and the MOC in the Labrador Sea, this relationship degrades considerably downstream of the Labrador Sea. In particular, there is no consistent pattern among the models in the North Atlantic subtropical basin over interannual to decadal time scales. Furthermore, the strong response of the MOC in the Labrador Sea to LSW volume changes in that basin may be biased by the overproduction of LSW in many models compared to observations. This analysis shows that changes in LSW volume in the Labrador Sea cannot be clearly and consistently linked to a coherent MOC response across latitudes over interannual to decadal time scales in ocean hindcast simulations of the last half century. Similarly, no coherent relationships are identified between the MOC and the Labrador Sea mixed layer depth or the density of newly formed LSW across latitudes or across models over interannual to decadal time scales.

Description: FL and MSL are thankful for the financial support from the National Science Foundation (NSF) Physical Oceanography Program (NSF-OCE-12-59102, NSF-OCE-12-59103). The NCAR contribution was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office (CPO) under Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CVP) Grant NA13OAR4310138 and by the NSF Collaborative Research EaSM2 Grant OCE-1243015. NCAR is sponsored by the NSF. NPH is supported by NERC programs U.K. OSNAP (NE/K010875) and ACSIS (National Capability, NE/N018044/1). Y-OK is supported by NOAA CPO CVP (NA17OAR4310111) and NSF EaSM2 grant (OCE-1242989). AR is supported by NASA-ROSES Modeling, Analysis and Prediction 2016 NNX16AC93G-MAP. RZ is supported by NOAA/OAR. Argo data were collected and made freely available by the International Argo Program and the national programs that contribute to it (http://www.argo.ucsd.edu, http://argo.jcommops.org). The Argo Program is part of the Global Ocean Observing System (http://doi.org/10.17882/42182). Data from the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS array funded by NERC, NSF and NOAA are freely available from www.rapid.ac.uk/rapidmoc. We thank Stephen Griffies for providing access to the GFDL-MOM025 COREII simulation output and Matthew Harrison and Xiaoqin Yan for their comments on the manuscript. We also thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.

Description: 2020-06-11

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(9), (2019): 2237-2254, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-18-0181.1.

Description: A cluster of 45 drifters deployed in the Bay of Bengal is tracked for a period of four months. Pair dispersion statistics, from observed drifter trajectories and simulated trajectories based on surface geostrophic velocity, are analyzed as a function of drifter separation and time. Pair dispersion suggests nonlocal dynamics at submesoscales of 1–20 km, likely controlled by the energetic mesoscale eddies present during the observations. Second-order velocity structure functions and their Helmholtz decomposition, however, suggest local dispersion and divergent horizontal flow at scales below 20 km. This inconsistency cannot be explained by inertial oscillations alone, as has been reported in recent studies, and is likely related to other nondispersive processes that impact structure functions but do not enter pair dispersion statistics. At scales comparable to the deformation radius LD, which is approximately 60 km, we find dynamics in agreement with Richardson’s law and observe local dispersion in both pair dispersion statistics and second-order velocity structure functions.

Description: This research was supported by the Air Sea Interaction Regional Initiative (ASIRI) under ONR Grant N00014-13-1-0451 (SE and AM) and ONR Grant N00014-13-1-0477 (VH and LC). Additionally, AM and SE thank NSF (Grant OCE-I434788) and ONR (Grant N00014-16-1-2470) for support; VH and LC were further supported by ONR Grant N00014-15-1-2286 and NOAA GDP Grant NA10OAR4320156. We thank Joe LaCasce, Dhruv Balwada, and one anonymous reviewer for helpful comments and discussions that significantly improved this manuscript. The authors thank the captain and crew of the R/V Roger Revelle. The SVP-type drifters are part of the Global Drifter Program and supported by ONR Grant N00014-15-1-2286 and NOAA GDP Grant NA10OAR4320156 and are available under http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dac/. The Ssalto/Duacs altimeter products were produced and distributed by the Copernicus Marine and Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS, http://www.marine.copernicus.eu).

Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2019. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Oxford University Press for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Journal International, 219(1), (2019): 464-478, doi:10.1093/gji/ggz315.

Description: The electromagnetic (EM) field generated by ocean tidal flow is readily detectable in both satellite magnetic field data, and in ocean-bottom measurements of electric and magnetic fields. The availability of accurate charts of tidal currents, constrained by assimilation of modern satellite altimetry data, opens the possibility of using tidal EM fields as a source to image mantle electrical resistivity beneath the ocean basins, as highlighted by the recent success in defining the globally averaged lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) with satellite data. In fact, seafloor EM data would be expected to provide better constraints on the structure of resistive oceanic lithosphere, since the toroidal magnetic mode, which can constrain resistive features, is a significant component of the tidal EM field within the ocean, but is absent above the surface (in particular in satellite data). Here we consider this issue in more detail, using a combination of simplified theoretical analysis and 1-D and 3-D numerical modelling to provide a thorough discussion of the sensitivity of satellite and seafloor data to subsurface electrical structure. As part of this effort, and as a step toward 3-D inversion of seafloor tidal data, we have developed a new flexible 3-D spherical-coordinate finite difference scheme for both global and regional scale modelling, with higher resolution models nested in larger scale solutions. We use the new 3-D model, together with Monte Carlo simulations of errors in tidal current estimates, to provide a quantitative assessment of errors in the computed tidal EM signal caused by uncertainty in the tidal source. Over the open ocean this component of error is below 0.01 nT in Bz at satellite height and 0.05 nT in Bx on the seafloor, well below typical signal levels. However, as coastlines are approached error levels can increase substantially. Both analytical and 3-D modelling demonstrate that the seafloor magnetic field is most sensitive to the lithospheric resistance (the product of resistivity and thickness), and is more weakly influenced (primarily in the phase) by resistivity of the underlying asthenosphere. Satellite data, which contain only the poloidal magnetic mode, are more sensitive to the conductive asthenosphere, but have little sensitivity to lithospheric resistance. For both seafloor and satellite data’s changes due to plausible variations in Earth parameters are well above error levels associated with source uncertainty, at least in the ocean interior. Although the 3-D modelling results are qualitatively consistent with theoretical analysis, the presence of coastlines and bathymetric variations generates a complex response, confirming that quantitative interpretation of ocean tidal EM fields will require a 3-D treatment. As an illustration of the nested 3-D scheme, seafloor data at five magnetic and seven electric stations in the northeastern Pacific (41○N, 165○W) are fit with trial-and-error forward modelling of a local domain. The simulation results indicate that the lithospheric resistance is roughly 7 × 108 Ωm2. The phase of the seafloor data in this region are inconsistent with a sharp transition between the resistive lithosphere and conductive asthenosphere.

Description: This work has been supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China grants 41804072 and 41574104, and NSF grant EAR-1447109. Special thanks to Dr Benjamin Murphy who provided the conductivity-depth profile for 1-D earth model, Dr Min Ding who provided valuable discussion about the oceanic lithosphere and Dr Jeffery Love who provided comments on the stylistics of the manuscript.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 36(10), (2019): 1997-2014, doi: 10.1175/JTECH-D-19-0029.1.

Description: While land-based high-frequency (HF) radars are the only instruments capable of resolving both the temporal and spatial variability of surface currents in the coastal ocean, recent high-resolution views suggest that the coastal ocean is more complex than presently deployed radar systems are able to reveal. This work uses a hybrid system, having elements of both phased arrays and direction finding radars, to improve the azimuthal resolution of HF radars. Data from two radars deployed along the U.S. East Coast and configured as 8-antenna grid arrays were used to evaluate potential direction finding and signal, or emitter, detection methods. Direction finding methods such as maximum likelihood estimation generally performed better than the well-known multiple signal classification (MUSIC) method given identical emitter detection methods. However, accurately estimating the number of emitters present in HF radar observations is a challenge. As MUSIC’s direction-of-arrival (DOA) function permits simple empirical tests that dramatically aid the detection process, MUSIC was found to be the superior method in this study. The 8-antenna arrays were able to provide more accurate estimates of MUSIC’s noise subspace than typical 3-antenna systems, eliminating the need for a series of empirical parameters to control MUSIC’s performance. Code developed for this research has been made available in an online repository.

Description: This analysis was supported by NSF Grants OCE-1657896 and OCE-1736930 to Kirincich, OCE-1658475 to Emery and Washburn and OCE-1736709 to Flament. Flament is also supported by NOAA’s Integrated Ocean Observing System through Award NA11NOS0120039. The authors thank Lindsey Benjamin, Alma Castillo, Ken Constantine, Benedicte Dousset, Ian Fernandez, Mael Flament, Dave Harris, Garrett Hebert, Ben Hodges, Victoria Futch, Matt Guanci, and Philip Moravcik for assistance in building, deploying, and operating the radars.

Description: 2020-04-11

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 32(8), (2019): 2185-2205. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0538.1.

Description: Much attention has been paid to the climatic impacts of changes in the Kuroshio Extension, instead of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (ECS). This study, however, reveals the prominent influences of the lateral shift of the Kuroshio at interannual time scale in late spring [April–June (AMJ)] on the sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation in summer around the ECS, based on high-resolution satellite observations and ERA-Interim. A persistent offshore displacement of the Kuroshio during AMJ can result in cold SST anomalies in the northern ECS and the Japan/East Sea until late summer, which correspondingly causes anomalous cooling of the lower troposphere. Consequently, the anomalous cold SST in the northern ECS acts as a key driver to robustly enhance the precipitation from the Yangtze River delta to Kyushu in early summer (May–August) and over the central ECS in late summer (July–September). In view of the moisture budget analysis, two different physical processes modulated by the lateral shift of the Kuroshio are identified to account for the distinct responses of precipitation in early and late summer, respectively. First, the anomalous cold SST in the northern ECS induced by the Kuroshio offshore shift is likely conducive to the earlier arrival of the mei-yu–baiu front at 30°–32°N and its subsequent slower northward movement, which may prolong the local rainy season, leading to the increased rain belt in early summer. Second, the persistent cold SST anomalies in late summer strengthen the near-surface baroclinicity and the associated strong atmospheric fronts embedded in the extratropical cyclones over the central ECS, which in turn enhances the local rainfall.

Description: We appreciate three anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful and constructive comments. This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0601804), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Projects (91858102, 41490643, 41490640, 41506009, U1606402) and the OUC–WHOI joint research program (21366).

Description: 2019-10-01

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Aslan, C., Beckman, N. G., Rogers, H. S., Bronstein, J., Zurell, D., Hartig, F., Shea, K., Pejchar, L., Neubert, M., Poulsen, J., HilleRisLambers, J., Miriti, M., Loiselle, B., Effiom, E., Zambrano, J., Schupp, G., Pufal, G., Johnson, J., Bullock, J. M., Brodie, J., Bruna, E., Cantrell, R. S., Decker, R., Fricke, E., Gurski, K., Hastings, A., Kogan, O., Razafindratsima, O., Sandor, M., Schreiber, S., Snell, R., Strickland, C., & Zhou, Y. Employing plant functional groups to advance seed dispersal ecology and conservation. AoB Plants, 11(2), (2019):plz006, doi:10.1093/aobpla/plz006.

Description: Seed dispersal enables plants to reach hospitable germination sites and escape natural enemies. Understanding when and how much seed dispersal matters to plant fitness is critical for understanding plant population and community dynamics. At the same time, the complexity of factors that determine if a seed will be successfully dispersed and subsequently develop into a reproductive plant is daunting. Quantifying all factors that may influence seed dispersal effectiveness for any potential seed-vector relationship would require an unrealistically large amount of time, materials and financial resources. On the other hand, being able to make dispersal predictions is critical for predicting whether single species and entire ecosystems will be resilient to global change. Building on current frameworks, we here posit that seed dispersal ecology should adopt plant functional groups as analytical units to reduce this complexity to manageable levels. Functional groups can be used to distinguish, for their constituent species, whether it matters (i) if seeds are dispersed, (ii) into what context they are dispersed and (iii) what vectors disperse them. To avoid overgeneralization, we propose that the utility of these functional groups may be assessed by generating predictions based on the groups and then testing those predictions against species-specific data. We suggest that data collection and analysis can then be guided by robust functional group definitions. Generalizing across similar species in this way could help us to better understand the population and community dynamics of plants and tackle the complexity of seed dispersal as well as its disruption.

Description: Ideas for this manuscript initiated during the Seed Dispersal Workshop held in May 2016 at the Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center in Annapolis, MD and supported by the US National Science Foundation Grant DEB-1548194 to N.G.B. and the National Socio‐Environmental Synthesis Center under the US National Science Foundation Grant DBI‐1052875. D.Z. received funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF, grant: PZ00P3_168136/1) and from the German Science Foundation (DFG, grant: ZU 361/1- 1). Contributions by the authors C.A. led the development of the concepts, writing, and revising of the manuscript with input from N.G.B. and H.S.R. All authors contributed to the development of concepts and are listed in order of contribution and alphabetical order within each level of contribution.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(4), (2019): 1035-1053, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-18-0136.1.

Description: Ocean stratification and the vertical extent of the mixed layer influence the rate at which the ocean and atmosphere exchange properties. This process has direct impacts for anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean. Submesoscale instabilities that evolve over space (1–10 km) and time (from hours to days) scales directly influence mixed layer variability and are ubiquitous in the Southern Ocean. Mixed layer eddies contribute to mixed layer restratification, while down-front winds, enhanced by strong synoptic storms, can erode stratification by a cross-frontal Ekman buoyancy flux. This study investigates the role of these submesoscale processes on the subseasonal and interannual variability of the mixed layer stratification using four years of high-resolution glider data in the Southern Ocean. An increase of stratification from winter to summer occurs due to a seasonal warming of the mixed layer. However, we observe transient decreases in stratification lasting from days to weeks, which can arrest the seasonal restratification by up to two months after surface heat flux becomes positive. This leads to interannual differences in the timing of seasonal restratification by up to 36 days. Parameterizing the Ekman buoyancy flux in a one-dimensional mixed layer model reduces the magnitude of stratification compared to when the model is run using heat and freshwater fluxes alone. Importantly, the reduced stratification occurs during the spring restratification period, thereby holding important implications for mixed layer dynamics in climate models as well as physical–biological coupling in the Southern Ocean.

Description: MdP acknowledges numerous research visits to the Department of Marine Science, University of Gothenburg, and a visit to Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, which greatly enhanced this work. We thank SANAP and the captain and crew of the S.A. Agulhas II for their assistance in the deployment and retrieval of the gliders. We acknowledge the work of SAMERC-STS for housing, managing, and piloting the gliders. SS was supported by NRF-SANAP Grant SNA14071475720 and a Wallenberg Academy Fellowship (WAF 2015.0186). Lastly, SS thanks the numerous technical assistance, advice, and IOP hosting provided by Geoff Shilling and Craig Lee of the Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington.

Description: 2020-04-11

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Alexander, H., Johnson, L. K., & Brown, C. T.. Keeping it light: (re)analyzing community-wide datasets without major infrastructure. Gigascience, 8(2),(2019): giy159, doi:10.1093/gigascience/giy159.

Description: DNA sequencing technology has revolutionized the field of biology, shifting biology from a data-limited to data-rich state. Central to the interpretation of sequencing data are the computational tools and approaches that convert raw data into biologically meaningful information. Both the tools and the generation of data are actively evolving, yet the practice of re-analysis of previously generated data with new tools is not commonplace. Re-analysis of existing data provides an affordable means of generating new information and will likely become more routine within biology, yet necessitates a new set of considerations for best practices and resource development. Here, we discuss several practices that we believe to be broadly applicable when re-analyzing data, especially when done by small research groups.

Description: Funding was provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (award GBMF4551 to C.T.B.).

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(6), (2019): 1639-1649, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-18-0154.1.

Description: Using a recently developed asymptotic theory of internal solitary wave propagation over a sloping bottom in a rotating ocean, some new qualitative and quantitative features of this process are analyzed for internal waves in a two-layer ocean. The interplay between different singularities—terminal damping due to radiation and disappearing quadratic nonlinearity, and reaching an “internal beach” (e.g., zero lower-layer depth)—is discussed. Examples of the adiabatic evolution of a single solitary wave over a uniformly sloping bottom under realistic conditions are considered in more detail and compared with numerical solutions of the variable-coefficient, rotation-modified Korteweg–de Vries (rKdV) equation.

Description: LAO is thankful to Yu. Stepanyants for broad discussions of mutual benefit. KRH was supported by Grant N00014-18-1-2542 from the Office of Naval Research.

Description: 2020-06-13

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(5), (2019): 897-908, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0130.1.

Description: As states, cities, tribes, and private interests cope with climate damages and seek to increase preparedness and resilience, they will need to navigate myriad choices and options available to them. Making these choices in ways that identify pathways for climate action that support their development objectives will require constructive public dialogue, community participation, and flexible and ongoing access to science- and experience-based knowledge. In 2016, a Federal Advisory Committee (FAC) was convened to recommend how to conduct a sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) to increase the relevance and usability of assessments for informing action. The FAC was disbanded in 2017, but members and additional experts reconvened to complete the report that is presented here. A key recommendation is establishing a new nonfederal “climate assessment consortium” to increase the role of state/local/tribal government and civil society in assessments. The expanded process would 1) focus on applied problems faced by practitioners, 2) organize sustained partnerships for collaborative learning across similar projects and case studies to identify effective tested practices, and 3) assess and improve knowledge-based methods for project implementation. Specific recommendations include evaluating climate models and data using user-defined metrics; improving benefit–cost assessment and supporting decision-making under uncertainty; and accelerating application of tools and methods such as citizen science, artificial intelligence, indicators, and geospatial analysis. The recommendations are the result of broad consultation and present an ambitious agenda for federal agencies, state/local/tribal jurisdictions, universities and the research sector, professional associations, nongovernmental and community-based organizations, and private-sector firms.

Description: This report would not have been possible without the support and participation of numerous organizations and individuals. We thank New York State Governor Andrew M. Cuomo for announcing in his 2018 State of the State agenda that the IAC would be reconvened. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (Contract ID 123416), Columbia University’s Earth Institute, and the American Meteorological Society provided essential financial support and much more, including sage advice and moral support from John O’Leary, Shara Mohtadi, Steve Cohen, Alex Halliday, Peter deMenocal, Keith Seitter, Paul Higgins, and Bill Hooke. We thank the attendees of a workshop, generously funded by the Kresge Foundation in November of 2017, that laid a foundation for the idea to establish a civil-society-based assessment consortium. During the course of preparing the report, IAC members consulted with individuals too numerous to list here—state, local, and tribal officials; researchers; experts in nongovernmental and community-based organizations; and professionals in engineering, architecture, public health, adaptation, and other areas. We are so grateful for their time and expertise. We thank the members and staff of the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program for providing individual comments on preliminary recommendations during several discussions in open sessions of their meetings. The following individuals provided detailed comments on an earlier version of this report, which greatly sharpened our thinking and recommendations: John Balbus, Tom Dietz, Phil Duffy, Baruch Fischhoff, Brenda Hoppe, Melissa Kenney, Linda Mearns, Claudia Nierenberg, Kathleen Segerson, Soroosh Sorooshian, Chris Weaver, and Brian Zuckerman. Mary Black provided insightful copy editing of several versions of the report. We also thank four anonymous reviewers for their effort and care in critiquing and improving the report. It is the dedication, thoughtful feedback, expertise, care, and commitment of all these people and more that not only made this report possible, but allow us all to continue to support smart and insightful actions in a changing climate. We are grateful as authors and as global citizens. Author contributions: RM, SA, KB, MB, AC, JD, PF, KJ, AJ, KK, JK, ML, JM, RP, TR, LS, JS, JW, and DZ were members of the IAC and shared in researching, discussing, drafting, and approving the report. BA, JF, AG, LJ, SJ, PK, RK, AM, RM, JN, WS, JS, PT, GY, and RZ contributed to specific sections of the report.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(6), (2019):1463-1483, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-18-0213.1.

Description: A set of float trajectories, deployed at 1500- and 2500-m depths throughout the deep Gulf of Mexico from 2011 to 2015, are analyzed for mesoscale processes under the Loop Current (LC). In the eastern basin, December 2012–June 2014 had 〉40 floats per month, which was of sufficient density to allow capturing detailed flow patterns of deep eddies and topographic Rossby waves (TRWs), while two LC eddies formed and separated. A northward advance of the LC front compresses the lower water column and generates an anticyclone. For an extended LC, baroclinic instability eddies (of both signs) develop under the southward-propagating large-scale meanders of the upper-layer jet, resulting in a transfer of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) to the lower layer. The increase in lower-layer EKE occurs only over a few months during meander activity and LC eddy detachment events, a relatively short interval compared with the LC intrusion cycle. Deep EKE of these eddies is dispersed to the west and northwest through radiating TRWs, of which examples were found to the west of the LC. Because of this radiation of EKE, the lower layer of the eastern basin becomes relatively quiescent, particularly in the northeastern basin, when the LC is retracted and a LC eddy has departed. A mean west-to-east, anticyclone–cyclone dipole flow under a mean LC was directly comparable to similar results from a previous moored LC array and also showed connections to an anticlockwise boundary current in the southeastern basin.

Description: The authors were supported by the Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Contract M08PC20043 to Leidos, Inc., Raleigh, NC. The authors also wish to acknowledge the enthusiastic support of Dr. Alexis Lugo-Fernández, the BOEM Contracting Officer’s Technical Representative, during the study into the Deep Circulation of the Gulf of Mexico, using Lagrangian Methods. Thanks go to the captains and crews of the R/V Pelican and B/O Justo Sierra, J. Malbrough (LUMCON), J. Singer (Leidos), J. Valdes (WHOI), B. Guest (WHOI), and the CANEK group (CICESE).

Description: 2020-05-29

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 36(4), (2019): 733-744, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-18-0050.1.

Description: Sea-Bird Scientific SBE 41CP CTDs are used on autonomous floats in the global Argo ocean observing program to measure the temperature and salinity of the upper ocean. While profiling, the sensors are subject to dynamic errors as they profile through vertical gradients. Applying dynamic corrections to the temperature and conductivity data reduces these errors and improves sensor accuracy. A series of laboratory experiments conducted in a stratified tank are used to characterize dynamic errors and determine corrections. The corrections are adapted for Argo floats, and recommendations for future implementation are presented.

Description: 2020-04-23

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Weather Climate and Society 11(3), (2019):465-487, doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0134.1.

Description: As states, cities, tribes, and private interests cope with climate damages and seek to increase preparedness and resilience, they will need to navigate myriad choices and options available to them. Making these choices in ways that identify pathways for climate action that support their development objectives will require constructive public dialogue, community participation, and flexible and ongoing access to science- and experience-based knowledge. In 2016, a Federal Advisory Committee (FAC) was convened to recommend how to conduct a sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) to increase the relevance and usability of assessments for informing action. The FAC was disbanded in 2017, but members and additional experts reconvened to complete the report that is presented here. A key recommendation is establishing a new nonfederal “climate assessment consortium” to increase the role of state/local/tribal government and civil society in assessments. The expanded process would 1) focus on applied problems faced by practitioners, 2) organize sustained partnerships for collaborative learning across similar projects and case studies to identify effective tested practices, and 3) assess and improve knowledge-based methods for project implementation. Specific recommendations include evaluating climate models and data using user-defined metrics; improving benefit–cost assessment and supporting decision-making under uncertainty; and accelerating application of tools and methods such as citizen science, artificial intelligence, indicators, and geospatial analysis. The recommendations are the result of broad consultation and present an ambitious agenda for federal agencies, state/local/tribal jurisdictions, universities and the research sector, professional associations, nongovernmental and community-based organizations, and private-sector firms.

Description: This report would not have been possible without the support and participation of numerous organizations and individuals. We thank New York State Governor Andrew M. Cuomo for announcing in his 2018 State of the State agenda that the IAC would be reconvened. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (Contract ID 123416), Columbia University’s Earth Institute, and the American Meteorological Society provided essential financial support and much more, including sage advice and moral support from John O’Leary, Shara Mohtadi, Steve Cohen, Alex Halliday, Peter deMenocal, Keith Seitter, Paul Higgins, and Bill Hooke. We thank the attendees of a workshop, generously funded by the Kresge Foundation in November of 2017, that laid a foundation for the idea to establish a civil-society-based assessment consortium. During the course of preparing the report, IAC members consulted with individuals too numerous to list here—state, local, and tribal officials; researchers; experts in nongovernmental and community-based organizations; and professionals in engineering, architecture, public health, adaptation, and other areas. We are so grateful for their time and expertise. We thank the members and staff of the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program for providing individual comments on preliminary recommendations during several discussions in open sessions of their meetings. The following individuals provided detailed comments on an earlier version of this report, which greatly sharpened our thinking and recommendations: John Balbus, Tom Dietz, Phil Duffy, Baruch Fischhoff, Brenda Hoppe, Melissa Kenney, Linda Mearns, Claudia Nierenberg, Kathleen Segerson, Soroosh Sorooshian, Chris Weaver, and Brian Zuckerman. Mary Black provided insightful copy editing of several versions of the report. We also thank four anonymous reviewers for their effort and care in critiquing and improving the report. It is the dedication, thoughtful feedback, expertise, care, and commitment of all these people and more that not only made this report possible, but allow us all to continue to support smart and insightful actions in a changing climate. We are grateful as authors and as global citizens. Author contributions: RM, SA, KB, MB, AC, JD, PF, KJ, AJ, KK, JK, ML, JM, RP, TR, LS, JS, JW, and DZ were members of the IAC and shared in researching, discussing, drafting, and approving the report. BA, JF, AG, LJ, SJ, PK, RK, AM, RM, JN, WS, JS, PT, GY, and RZ contributed to specific sections of the report.

Description: 2020-05-21

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(6), (2019):1619-1637, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-18-0175.1.

Description: Although the hydrodynamics of river meanders are well studied, the influence of curvature on flow in estuaries, with alternating tidal flow and varying water levels and salinity gradients, is less well understood. This paper describes a field study on curvature effects in a narrow salt-marsh creek with sharp bends. The key observations, obtained during times of negligible stratification, are 1) distinct differences between secondary flow during ebb and flood, with helical circulation as in rivers during ebb and a reversed circulation during flood, and 2) maximum (ebb and flood) streamwise velocities near the inside of the bend, unlike typical river bend flow. The streamwise velocity structure is explained by the lack of a distinct point bar and the relatively deep cross section in the estuary, which means that curvature-induced inward momentum redistribution is not overcome by outward redistribution by frictional and topographic effects. Through differential advection of the along-estuary salinity gradient, the laterally sheared streamwise velocity generates lateral salinity differences, with the saltiest water near the inside during flood. The resulting lateral baroclinic pressure gradient force enhances the standard helical circulation during ebb but counteracts it during flood. This first leads to a reversed secondary circulation during flood in the outer part of the cross section, which triggers a positive feedback mechanism by bringing slower-moving water from the outside inward along the surface. This leads to a reversal of the vertical shear in the streamwise flow, and therefore in the centrifugal force, which further enhances the reversed secondary circulation.

Description: This project was funded by NSF Grant OCE-1634490. During this work W.M. Kranenburg was supported as USGS Postdoctoral Scholar at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. A.M.P. Garcia was supported by the Michael J. Kowalski Fellowship in Ocean Science and Engineering (AMPG), and the Diversity Fellowship of the MIT Office of the Dean of Graduate Education (AMPG). The authors thank Jay Sisson for the technical support and Peter Traykovski for providing the bathymetric data. Also, the suggestions for improvement by Dr. K. Blanckaert and an anonymous reviewer are thankfully acknowledged.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100(5), (2019): 909-912, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0319.1.

Description: The open availability and wide accessibility of digital scientific resources, such as articles and datasets, is becoming the norm for twenty-first-century science. Geoscience researchers are now being asked by funding agencies and scientific publishers to archive and cite data to support open access but often struggle to understand, interpret, and fulfill these requirements. To fulfill the promise of new open data initiatives, 1) scientific resources (e.g., data and software) must be collected and documented properly; 2) repository services, including preservation and storage capabilities, must be maintained, supported, and improved over time; and 3) governance institutions must be established. These issues were discussed in the Geoscience Digital Data Resource and Repository Service (GeoDaRRS) workshop,1 held in August 2018, at NCAR. The workshop brought together more than 60 geoscience researchers, technology experts, scientific publishers, funders, and data repository personnel to discuss data management challenges and opportunities within the geosciences. This included exploring whether new services are needed to complement existing data facilities, particularly in the areas of 1) data management planning support resources and 2) repository services for geoscience researchers who have data that do not fit in any existing repository. More details on the workshop agenda and recommendations are available in the final workshop report (Mayernik et al. 2018).

Description: The National Science Foundation (NSF) provided the funding support for this workshop. We also thank Cecilia Banner and Elizabeth Faircloth of NCAR for administrative and logistical support.

Description: 2020-06-04

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 49(6), (2019): 1561-1575, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-19-0002.1.

Description: Within the pycnocline, where diapycnal mixing is suppressed, both the vertical movement (uplift) of isopycnal surfaces and upward motion along sloping isopycnals supply nutrients to the euphotic layer, but the relative importance of each of these mechanisms is unknown. We present a method for decomposing vertical velocity w into two components in a Lagrangian frame: vertical velocity along sloping isopycnal surfaces and the adiabatic vertical velocity of isopycnal surfaces . We show that , where is the isopycnal slope and is the geometric aspect ratio of the flow, and that accounts for 10%–25% of the total vertical velocity w for isopycnal slopes representative of the midlatitude pycnocline. We perform the decomposition of w in a process study model of a midlatitude eddying flow field generated with a range of isopycnal slopes. A spectral decomposition of the velocity components shows that while is the largest contributor to vertical velocity, is of comparable magnitude at horizontal scales less than about 10 km, that is, at submesoscales. Increasing the horizontal grid resolution of models is known to increase vertical velocity; this increase is disproportionately due to better resolution of , as is shown here by comparing 1- and 4-km resolution model runs. Along-isopycnal vertical transport can be an important contributor to the vertical flux of tracers, including oxygen, nutrients, and chlorophyll, although we find weak covariance between vertical velocity and nutrient anomaly in our model.

Description: MAF was supported by a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and AM by NSF OCE-I434788. The authors thank Glenn Flierl and Ruth Curry for helpful conversations, and three anonymous reviewers for comments that improved the manuscript.

Description: 2020-06-11

Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of The Royal Astronomical Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Journal International 218(3), (2019): 2165-2178, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggz280.

Description: A multitaper estimator is proposed that accommodates time-series containing gaps without using any form of interpolation. In contrast with prior missing-data multitaper estimators that force standard Slepian sequences to be zero at gaps, the proposed missing-data Slepian sequences are defined only where data are present. The missing-data Slepian sequences are frequency independent, as are the eigenvalues that define the energy concentration within the resolution bandwidth, when the process bandwidth is [−1/2,1/2) for unit sampling and the sampling scheme comprises integer multiples of unity. As a consequence, one need only compute the ensuing missing-data Slepian sequences for a given sampling scheme once, and then the spectrum at an arbitrary set of frequencies can be computed using them. It is also shown that the resulting missing-data multitaper estimator can incorporate all of the optimality features (i.e. adaptive-weighting, F-test and reshaping) of the standard multitaper estimator, and can be applied to bivariate or multivariate situations in similar ways. Performance of the missing-data multitaper estimator is illustrated using length of day, seafloor pressure and Nile River low stand time-series.

Description: The length of day utilized in Section 3 are available from http://hpiers.obspm.fr. The pressure data used in Section 4 are available from https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014586. A Matlab function MDmwps.m to compute missing-data power spectra is available from the Mathworks file exchange website. The author thanks Jeff Park and editor F.J. Simons for thorough reviews. This work was supported by an Internal Research and Development award at WHOI, and by the Walter A. and Hope Noyes Smith Chair for Excellence in Oceanography.

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Johnson, L. K., Alexander, H., & Brown, C. T. Re-assembly, quality evaluation, and annotation of 678 microbial eukaryotic reference transcriptomes. Gigascience, 8(4), (2019): giy158, doi: 10.1093/gigascience/giy158.

Description: Background: De novo transcriptome assemblies are required prior to analyzing RNA sequencing data from a species without an existing reference genome or transcriptome. Despite the prevalence of transcriptomic studies, the effects of using different workflows, or “pipelines,” on the resulting assemblies are poorly understood. Here, a pipeline was programmatically automated and used to assemble and annotate raw transcriptomic short-read data collected as part of the Marine Microbial Eukaryotic Transcriptome Sequencing Project. The resulting transcriptome assemblies were evaluated and compared against assemblies that were previously generated with a different pipeline developed by the National Center for Genome Research. Results: New transcriptome assemblies contained the majority of previous contigs as well as new content. On average, 7.8% of the annotated contigs in the new assemblies were novel gene names not found in the previous assemblies. Taxonomic trends were observed in the assembly metrics. Assemblies from the Dinoflagellata showed a higher number of contigs and unique k-mers than transcriptomes from other phyla, while assemblies from Ciliophora had a lower percentage of open reading frames compared to other phyla. Conclusions: Given current bioinformatics approaches, there is no single “best” reference transcriptome for a particular set of raw data. As the optimum transcriptome is a moving target, improving (or not) with new tools and approaches, automated and programmable pipelines are invaluable for managing the computationally intensive tasks required for re-processing large sets of samples with revised pipelines and ensuring a common evaluation workflow is applied to all samples. Thus, re-assembling existing data with new tools using automated and programmable pipelines may yield more accurate identification of taxon-specific trends across samples in addition to novel and useful products for the community.

Description: Funding was provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation under award number GBMF4551 to C.T.B. Jetstream cloud platform was used with XSEDE allocation TG-BIO160028 [66, 67].

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 36(9), (2019): 1789-1812, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-18-0223.1.

Description: Temporal vertical eddy viscosity coefficient (VEVC) in an Ekman layer model is estimated using an adjoint method. Twin experiments are carried out to investigate the influences of several factors on inversion results, and the conclusions of twin experiments are 1) the adjoint method is a capable method to estimate different kinds of temporal distributions of VEVCs; 2) the gradient descent algorithm is better than CONMIN and L-BFGS for the present problem, although the posterior two algorithms perform better on convergence efficiency; 3) inversion results are sensitive to initial guesses; 4) the model is applicable to different wind conditions; 5) the inversion result with thick boundary layer depth (BLD) is slightly better than thin BLD; 6) inversion results are more sensitive to observations in upper layers than those in lower layers; 7) inversion results are still acceptable when data noise exists, indicating the method can sustain noise to a certain degree; 8) a regularization method is proved to be useful to improve the results for present problem; and 9) the present method can tolerate the existence of balance errors due to the imperfection of governing equations. The methodology is further validated in practical experiments where Ekman currents are derived from Bermuda Testbed Mooring data and assimilated. Modeled Ekman currents coincide well with observed ones, especially for upper layers. The results demonstrate that the assumptions of depth dependence and time dependence are equally important for VEVCs. The feasibility of the typical Ekman model, the imperfection of Ekman balance equations, and the deficiencies of the present method are discussed. This method provides a potential way to realize the time variations of VEVCs in ocean models.

Description: The authors thank the seven reviewers for the constructive suggestions which have greatly improved the manuscript. Financial support is provided by the National Key Research and Development Plan of China (Grants 2017YFA0604100 and 2017YFC1404000), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41876086 and 41806012), Scientific Research Fund of the Second Institute of Oceanography, MNR (Grant JG1819), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China. Jicai thanks the support of China Scholarship Council for the visiting research in WHOI, and he also thanks the host of WHOI. BTM data are provided by Ocean Physics Laboratory, University of California, Santa Barbara (http://opl.ucsb.edu).

Description: 2020-03-10

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 32(5) (2019): 1551-1571. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0444.1.

Description: Previous studies have documented a poleward shift in the subsiding branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation since 1979 but have disagreed on the causes of these observed changes and the ability of global climate models to capture them. This synthesis paper reexamines a number of contradictory claims in the past literature and finds that the tropical expansion indicated by modern reanalyses is within the bounds of models’ historical simulations for the period 1979–2005. Earlier conclusions that models were underestimating the observed trends relied on defining the Hadley circulation using the mass streamfunction from older reanalyses. The recent observed tropical expansion has similar magnitudes in the annual mean in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), but models suggest that the factors driving the expansion differ between the hemispheres. In the SH, increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to tropical expansion over the late twentieth century, and if GHGs continue increasing, the SH tropical edge is projected to shift further poleward over the twenty-first century, even as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover. In the NH, the contribution of GHGs to tropical expansion is much smaller and will remain difficult to detect in a background of large natural variability, even by the end of the twenty-first century. To explain similar recent tropical expansion rates in the two hemispheres, natural variability must be taken into account. Recent coupled atmosphere–ocean variability, including the Pacific decadal oscillation, has contributed to tropical expansion. However, in models forced with observed sea surface temperatures, tropical expansion rates still vary widely because of internal atmospheric variability.

Description: We thank Ori Adam, Nick Davis, Isaac Held, Tim Merlis, Lorenzo Polvani, and one anonymous reviewer for helpful comments and suggestions. We thank U.S. CLIVAR and the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) for funding working groups that stimulated this project. We thank all members of the working groups for helpful discussions, and the U.S. CLIVAR and ISSI offices and their sponsoring agencies (NASA,NOAA,NSF,DOE, ESA, Swiss Confederation, Swiss Academy of Sciences, and University of Bern) for supporting these groups and activities.We acknowledge WCRP’sWorking Group on CoupledModelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (Table 2) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. DOE PCMDI provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.

Description: 2019-08-06

Description: We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application, and utilization of “radiative forcing” (RF) of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and longwave radiation were developed through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the nineteenth century, gained empirical support with sustained observations of the atmospheric concentrations of the gas beginning in 1957. Advances in laboratory and field measurements, theory, instrumentation, computational technology, data, and analysis of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the global climate system through the twentieth century enabled the development and formalism of RF; this allowed RF to be related to changes in global-mean surface temperature with the aid of increasingly sophisticated models. This in turn led to RF becoming firmly established as a principal concept in climate science by 1990. The linkage with surface temperature has proven to be the most important application of the RF concept, enabling a simple metric to evaluate the relative climate impacts of different agents. The late 1970s and 1980s saw accelerated developments in quantification, including the first assessment of the effect of the forcing due to the doubling of carbon dioxide on climate (the “Charney” report). The concept was subsequently extended to a wide variety of agents beyond well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs; carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons) to short-lived species such as ozone. The WMO and IPCC international assessments began the important sequence of periodic evaluations and quantifications of the forcings by natural (solar irradiance changes and stratospheric aerosols resulting from volcanic eruptions) and a growing set of anthropogenic agents (WMGHGs, ozone, aerosols, land surface changes, contrails). From the 1990s to the present, knowledge and scientific confidence in the radiative agents acting on the climate system have proliferated. The conceptual basis of RF has also evolved as both our understanding of the way radiative forcing drives climate change and the diversity of the forcing mechanisms have grown. This has led to the current situation where “effective radiative forcing” (ERF) is regarded as the preferred practical definition of radiative forcing in order to better capture the link between forcing and global-mean surface temperature change. The use of ERF, however, comes with its own attendant issues, including challenges in its diagnosis from climate models, its applications to small forcings, and blurring of the distinction between rapid climate adjustments (fast responses) and climate feedbacks; this will necessitate further elaboration of its utility in the future. Global climate model simulations of radiative perturbations by various agents have established how the forcings affect other climate variables besides temperature (e.g., precipitation). The forcing–response linkage as simulated by models, including the diversity in the spatial distribution of forcings by the different agents, has provided a practical demonstration of the effectiveness of agents in perturbing the radiative energy balance and causing climate changes. The significant advances over the past half century have established, with very high confidence, that the global-mean ERF due to human activity since preindustrial times is positive (the 2013 IPCC assessment gives a best estimate of 2.3 W m−2, with a range from 1.1 to 3.3 W m−2; 90% confidence interval). Further, except in the immediate aftermath of climatically significant volcanic eruptions, the net anthropogenic forcing dominates over natural radiative forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, the substantial remaining uncertainty in the net anthropogenic ERF leads to large uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity from observations and in predicting future climate impacts. The uncertainty in the ERF arises principally from the incorporation of the rapid climate adjustments in the formulation, the well-recognized difficulties in characterizing the preindustrial state of the atmosphere, and the incomplete knowledge of the interactions of aerosols with clouds. This uncertainty impairs the quantitative evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation pathways in the future. A grand challenge in Earth system science lies in continuing to sustain the relatively simple essence of the radiative forcing concept in a form similar to that originally devised, and at the same time improving the quantification of the forcing. This, in turn, demands an accurate, yet increasingly complex and comprehensive, accounting of the relevant processes in the climate system.

Description: Today’s global Earth system models began as simple regional models of tropospheric weather systems. Over the past century, the physical realism of the models has steadily increased, while the scope of the models has broadened to include the global troposphere and stratosphere, the ocean, the vegetated land surface, and terrestrial ice sheets. This chapter gives an approximately chronological account of the many and profound conceptual and technological advances that made today’s models possible. For brevity, we omit any discussion of the roles of chemistry and biogeochemistry, and terrestrial ice sheets.

Description: This chapter reviews the history of the discovery of cloud nuclei and their impacts on cloud microphysics and the climate system. Pioneers including John Aitken, Sir John Mason, Hilding Köhler, Christian Junge, Sean Twomey, and Kenneth Whitby laid the foundations of the field. Through their contributions and those of many others, rapid progress has been made in the last 100 years in understanding the sources, evolution, and composition of the atmospheric aerosol, the interactions of particles with atmospheric water vapor, and cloud microphysical processes. Major breakthroughs in measurement capabilities and in theoretical understanding have elucidated the characteristics of cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles and the role these play in shaping cloud microphysical properties and the formation of precipitation. Despite these advances, not all their impacts on cloud formation and evolution have been resolved. The resulting radiative forcing on the climate system due to aerosol–cloud interactions remains an unacceptably large uncertainty in future climate projections. Process-level understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions remains insufficient to support technological mitigation strategies such as intentional weather modification or geoengineering to accelerating Earth-system-wide changes in temperature and weather patterns.

Description: Over the past 100 years, the collaborative effort of the international science community, including government weather services and the media, along with the associated proliferation of environmental observations, improved scientific understanding, and growth of technology, has radically transformed weather forecasting into an effective global and regional environmental prediction capability. This chapter traces the evolution of forecasting, starting in 1919 [when the American Meteorological Society (AMS) was founded], over four eras separated by breakpoints at 1939, 1956, and 1985. The current state of forecasting could not have been achieved without essential collaboration within and among countries in pursuing the common weather and Earth-system prediction challenge. AMS itself has had a strong role in enabling this international collaboration.

Description: The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it was the year that the American Meteorological Society was founded, but also for two other reasons. One of the foundational papers in extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes was published in 1919, leading to what is now known as the Norwegian cyclone model. Also that year, a series of meetings was held that led to the formation of organizations that promoted the international collaboration and scientific exchange required for extratropical cyclone research, which by necessity involves spatial scales spanning national borders. This chapter describes the history of scientific inquiry into the structure, evolution, and dynamics of extratropical cyclones, their constituent fronts, and their attendant jet streams and storm tracks. We refer to these phenomena collectively as the centerpiece of meteorology because of their central role in fostering meteorological research during this century. This extremely productive period in extratropical cyclone research has been possible because of 1) the need to address practical challenges of poor forecasts that had large socioeconomic consequences, 2) the intermingling of theory, observations, and diagnosis (including dynamical modeling) to provide improved physical understanding and conceptual models, and 3) strong international cooperation. Conceptual frameworks for cyclones arise from a desire to classify and understand cyclones; they include the Norwegian cyclone model and its sister the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model. The challenge of understanding the dynamics of cyclones led to such theoretical frameworks as quasigeostrophy, baroclinic instability, semigeostrophy, and frontogenesis. The challenge of predicting explosive extratropical cyclones in particular led to new theoretical developments such as potential-vorticity thinking and downstream development. Deeper appreciation of the limits of predictability has resulted from an evolution from determinism to chaos. Last, observational insights led to detailed cyclone and frontal structure, storm tracks, and rainbands.

Description: Mountains significantly influence weather and climate on Earth, including disturbed surface winds; altered distribution of precipitation; gravity waves reaching the upper atmosphere; and modified global patterns of storms, fronts, jet streams, and climate. All of these impacts arise because Earth’s mountains penetrate deeply into the atmosphere. This penetration can be quantified by comparing mountain heights to several atmospheric reference heights such as density scale height, water vapor scale height, airflow blocking height, and the height of natural atmospheric layers. The geometry of Earth’s terrain can be analyzed quantitatively using statistical, matrix, and spectral methods. In this review, we summarize how our understanding of orographic effects has progressed over 100 years using the equations for atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics, numerical modeling, and many clever in situ and remote sensing methods. We explore how mountains disturb the surface winds on our planet, including mountaintop winds, severe downslope winds, barrier jets, gap jets, wakes, thermally generated winds, and cold pools. We consider the variety of physical mechanisms by which mountains modify precipitation patterns in different climate zones. We discuss the vertical propagation of mountain waves through the troposphere into the stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere. Finally, we look at how mountains distort the global-scale westerly winds that circle the poles and how varying ice sheets and mountain uplift and erosion over geologic time may have contributed to climate change.

Description: The stratosphere contains ~17% of Earth’s atmospheric mass, but its existence was unknown until 1902. In the following decades our knowledge grew gradually as more observations of the stratosphere were made. In 1913 the ozone layer, which protects life from harmful ultraviolet radiation, was discovered. From ozone and water vapor observations, a first basic idea of a stratospheric general circulation was put forward. Since the 1950s our knowledge of the stratosphere and mesosphere has expanded rapidly, and the importance of this region in the climate system has become clear. With more observations, several new stratospheric phenomena have been discovered: the quasi-biennial oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, the Southern Hemisphere ozone hole, and surface weather impacts of stratospheric variability. None of these phenomena were anticipated by theory. Advances in theory have more often than not been prompted by unexplained phenomena seen in new stratospheric observations. From the 1960s onward, the importance of dynamical processes and the coupled stratosphere–troposphere circulation was realized. Since approximately 2000, better representations of the stratosphere—and even the mesosphere—have been included in climate and weather forecasting models. We now know that in order to produce accurate seasonal weather forecasts, and to predict long-term changes in climate and the future evolution of the ozone layer, models with a well-resolved stratosphere with realistic dynamics and chemistry are necessary.

Description: Satellite meteorology is a relatively new branch of the atmospheric sciences. The field emerged in the late 1950s during the Cold War and built on the advances in rocketry after World War II. In less than 70 years, satellite observations have transformed the way scientists observe and study Earth. This paper discusses some of the key advances in our understanding of the energy and water cycles, weather forecasting, and atmospheric composition enabled by satellite observations. While progress truly has been an international achievement, in accord with a monograph observing the centennial of the American Meteorological Society, as well as limited space, the emphasis of this chapter is on the U.S. satellite effort.

Description: This chapter outlines the development of our understanding of several examples of mesoscale atmospheric circulations that are tied directly to surface forcings, starting from thermally driven variations over the ocean and progressing inland to man-made variations in temperature and roughness, and ending with forced boundary layer circulations. Examples include atmospheric responses to 1) overocean temperature variations, 2) coastlines (sea breezes), 3) mesoscale regions of inland water (lake-effect storms), and 4) variations in land-based surface usage (urban land cover). This chapter provides brief summaries of the historical evolution of, and tools for, understanding such mesoscale atmospheric circulations and their importance to the field, as well as physical processes responsible for initiating and determining their evolution. Some avenues of future research we see as critical are provided. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has played a direct and important role in fostering the development of understanding mesoscale surface-forced circulations. The significance of AMS journal publications and conferences on this and interrelated atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological fields, as well as those by sister scientific organizations, are demonstrated through extensive relevant citations.

Description: The history of over 100 years of observing the ocean is reviewed. The evolution of particular classes of ocean measurements (e.g., shipboard hydrography, moorings, and drifting floats) are summarized along with some of the discoveries and dynamical understanding they made possible. By the 1970s, isolated and “expedition” observational approaches were evolving into experimental campaigns that covered large ocean areas and addressed multiscale phenomena using diverse instrumental suites and associated modeling and analysis teams. The Mid-Ocean Dynamics Experiment (MODE) addressed mesoscale “eddies” and their interaction with larger-scale currents using new ocean modeling and experiment design techniques and a suite of developing observational methods. Following MODE, new instrument networks were established to study processes that dominated ocean behavior in different regions. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program gathered multiyear time series in the tropical Pacific to understand, and eventually predict, evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) sought to quantify ocean transport throughout the global ocean using temperature, salinity, and other tracer measurements along with fewer direct velocity measurements with floats and moorings. Western and eastern boundary currents attracted comprehensive measurements, and various coastal regions, each with its unique scientific and societally important phenomena, became home to regional observing systems. Today, the trend toward networked observing arrays of many instrument types continues to be a productive way to understand and predict large-scale ocean phenomena.

Description: In situ observation networks and reanalyses products of the state of the atmosphere and upper ocean show well-defined, large-scale patterns of coupled climate variability on time scales ranging from seasons to several decades. We summarize these phenomena and their physics, which have been revealed by analysis of observations, by experimentation with uncoupled and coupled atmosphere and ocean models with a hierarchy of complexity, and by theoretical developments. We start with a discussion of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are clearly affected by coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. We then discuss the tropical phenomena that only exist because of the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean: the Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, and a phenomenon analogous to ENSO in the Atlantic. For ENSO, we further discuss the sources of irregularity and asymmetry between warm and cold phases of ENSO, and the response of ENSO to forcing. Fundamental to variability on all time scales in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are preferred patterns of uncoupled atmospheric variability that exist independent of any changes in the state of the ocean, land, or distribution of sea ice. These patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern; they are most active in wintertime, with a temporal spectrum that is nearly white. Stochastic variability in the NPO, PNA, and NAO force the ocean on days to interannual times scales by way of turbulent heat exchange and Ekman transport, and on decadal and longer time scales by way of wind stress forcing. The PNA is partially responsible for the Pacific decadal oscillation; the NAO is responsible for an analogous phenomenon in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In models, stochastic forcing by the NAO also gives rise to variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that is partially responsible for multidecadal anomalies in the North Atlantic climate known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO); observations do not yet exist to adequately determine the physics of the AMO. We review the progress that has been made in the past 50 years in understanding each of these phenomena and the implications for short-term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate forecasts. We end with a brief discussion of advances of things that are on the horizon, under the rug, and over the rainbow.

Description: s The history of severe thunderstorm research and forecasting over the past century has been a remarkable story involving interactions between technological development of observational and modeling capabilities, research into physical processes, and the forecasting of phenomena with the goal of reducing loss of life and property. Perhaps more so than any other field of meteorology, the relationship between researchers and forecasters has been particularly close in the severe thunderstorm domain, with both groups depending on improved observational capabilities. The advances that have been made have depended on observing systems that did not exist 100 years ago, particularly radar and upper-air systems. They have allowed scientists to observe storm behavior and structure and the environmental setting in which storms occur. This has led to improved understanding of processes, which in turn has allowed forecasters to use those same observational systems to improve forecasts. Because of the relatively rare and small-scale nature of many severe thunderstorm events, severe thunderstorm researchers have developed mobile instrumentation capabilities that have allowed them to collect high-quality observations in the vicinity of storms. Since much of the world is subject to severe thunderstorm hazards, research has taken place around the world, with the local emphasis dependent on what threats are perceived in that area, subject to the availability of resources to study the threat. Frequently, the topics of interest depend upon a single event, or a small number of events, of a particular kind that aroused public or economic interests in that area. International cooperation has been an important contributor to collecting and disseminating knowledge. As the AMS turns 100, the range of research relating to severe thunderstorms is expanding. The time scale of forecasting or projecting is increasing, with work going on to study forecasts on the seasonal to subseasonal time scales, as well as addressing how climate change may influence severe thunderstorms. With its roots in studying weather that impacts the public, severe thunderstorm research now includes significant work from the social science community, some as standalone research and some in active collaborative efforts with physical scientists. In addition, the traditional emphases of the field continue to grow. Improved radar and numerical modeling capabilities allow meteorologists to see and model details that were unobservable and not understood a half century ago. The long tradition of collecting observations in the field has led to improved quality and quantity of observations, as well as the capability to collect them in locations that were previously inaccessible. Much of that work has been driven by the gaps in understanding identified by theoretical and operational practice.

Description: Remarkable progress has occurred over the last 100 years in our understanding of atmospheric chemical composition, stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, urban air pollution, acid rain, and the formation of airborne particles from gas-phase chemistry. Much of this progress was associated with the developing understanding of the formation and role of ozone and of the oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO2, in the stratosphere and troposphere. The chemistry of the stratosphere, emerging from the pioneering work of Chapman in 1931, was followed by the discovery of catalytic ozone cycles, ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons, and the polar ozone holes, work honored by the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded to Crutzen, Rowland, and Molina. Foundations for the modern understanding of tropospheric chemistry were laid in the 1950s and 1960s, stimulated by the eye-stinging smog in Los Angeles. The importance of the hydroxyl (OH) radical and its relationship to the oxides of nitrogen (NO and NO2) emerged. The chemical processes leading to acid rain were elucidated. The atmosphere contains an immense number of gas-phase organic compounds, a result of emissions from plants and animals, natural and anthropogenic combustion processes, emissions from oceans, and from the atmospheric oxidation of organics emitted into the atmosphere. Organic atmospheric particulate matter arises largely as gas-phase organic compounds undergo oxidation to yield low-volatility products that condense into the particle phase. A hundred years ago, quantitative theories of chemical reaction rates were nonexistent. Today, comprehensive computer codes are available for performing detailed calculations of chemical reaction rates and mechanisms for atmospheric reactions. Understanding the future role of atmospheric chemistry in climate change and, in turn, the impact of climate change on atmospheric chemistry, will be critical to developing effective policies to protect the planet.

Description: The human population on Earth has increased by a factor of 4.6 in the last 100 years and has become more centered in urban environments. This expansion and migration pattern has resulted in stresses on the environment. Meteorological applications have helped to understand and mitigate those stresses. This chapter describes several applications that enable the population to interact with the environment in more sustainable ways. The first topic treated is urbanization itself and the types of stresses exerted by population growth and its attendant growth in urban landscapes—buildings and pavement—and how they modify airflow and create a local climate. We describe environmental impacts of these changes and implications for the future. The growing population uses increasing amounts of energy. Traditional sources of energy have taxed the environment, but the increase in renewable energy has used the atmosphere and hydrosphere as its fuel. Utilizing these variable renewable resources requires meteorological information to operate electric systems efficiently and economically while providing reliable power and minimizing environmental impacts. The growing human population also pollutes the environment. Thus, understanding and modeling the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants are important steps toward regulating the pollution and mitigating impacts. This chapter describes how weather information can help to make surface transportation more safe and efficient. It is explained how these applications naturally require transdisciplinary collaboration to address these challenges caused by the expanding population.

Description: Applied meteorology is an important and rapidly growing field. This chapter concludes the three-chapter series of this monograph describing how meteorological information can be used to serve society’s needs while at the same time advancing our understanding of the basics of the science. This chapter continues along the lines of Part II of this series by discussing ways that meteorological and climate information can help to improve the output of the agriculture and food-security sector. It also discusses how agriculture alters climate and its long-term implications. It finally pulls together several of the applications discussed by treating the food–energy–water nexus. The remaining topics of this chapter are those that are advancing rapidly with more opportunities for observation and needs for prediction. The study of space weather is advancing our understanding of how the barrage of particles from other planetary bodies in the solar system impacts Earth’s atmosphere. Our ability to predict wildland fires by coupling atmospheric and fire-behavior models is beginning to impact decision-support systems for firefighters. Last, we examine how artificial intelligence is changing the way we predict, emulate, and optimize our meteorological variables and its potential to amplify our capabilities. Many of these advances are directly due to the rapid increase in observational data and computer power. The applications reviewed in this series of chapters are not comprehensive, but they will whet the reader’s appetite for learning more about how meteorology can make a concrete impact on the world’s population by enhancing access to resources, preserving the environment, and feeding back into a better understanding how the pieces of the environmental system interact.

Description: Some of the advances of the past century in our understanding of the general circulation of the atmosphere are described, starting with a brief summary of some of the key developments from the first half of the twentieth century, but with a primary focus on the period beginning with the midcentury breakthrough in baroclinic instability and quasigeostrophic dynamics. In addition to baroclinic instability, topics touched upon include the following: stationary wave theory, the role played by the two-layer model, scaling arguments for the eddy heat flux, the subtlety of large-scale eddy momentum fluxes, the Eliassen–Palm flux and the transformed Eulerian mean formulation, the structure of storm tracks, and the controls on the Hadley cell.

Description: Over the last 100 years, boundary layer meteorology grew from the subject of mostly near-surface observations to a field encompassing diverse atmospheric boundary layers (ABLs) around the world. From the start, researchers drew from an ever-expanding set of disciplines—thermodynamics, soil and plant studies, fluid dynamics and turbulence, cloud microphysics, and aerosol studies. Research expanded upward to include the entire ABL in response to the need to know how particles and trace gases dispersed, and later how to represent the ABL in numerical models of weather and climate (starting in the 1970s–80s); taking advantage of the opportunities afforded by the development of large-eddy simulations (1970s), direct numerical simulations (1990s), and a host of instruments to sample the boundary layer in situ and remotely from the surface, the air, and space. Near-surface flux-profile relationships were developed rapidly between the 1940s and 1970s, when rapid progress shifted to the fair-weather convective boundary layer (CBL), though tropical CBL studies date back to the 1940s. In the 1980s, ABL research began to include the interaction of the ABL with the surface and clouds, the first ABL parameterization schemes emerged; and land surface and ocean surface model development blossomed. Research in subsequent decades has focused on more complex ABLs, often identified by shortcomings or uncertainties in weather and climate models, including the stable boundary layer, the Arctic boundary layer, cloudy boundary layers, and ABLs over heterogeneous surfaces (including cities). The paper closes with a brief summary, some lessons learned, and a look to the future.

Description: The development of the technologies of remote sensing of the ocean was initiated in the 1970s, while the ideas of observing the ocean from space were conceived in the late 1960s. The first global view from space revealed the expanse and complexity of the state of the ocean that had perplexed and inspired oceanographers ever since. This paper presents a glimpse of the vast progress made from ocean remote sensing in the past 50 years that has a profound impact on the ways we study the ocean in relation to weather and climate. The new view from space in conjunction with the deployment of an unprecedented amount of in situ observations of the ocean has led to a revolution in physical oceanography. The highlights of the achievement include the description and understanding of the global ocean circulation, the air–sea fluxes driving the coupled ocean–atmosphere system that is most prominently illustrated in the tropical oceans. The polar oceans are most sensitive to climate change with significant consequences, but owing to remoteness they were not accessible until the space age. Fundamental discoveries have been made on the evolution of the state of sea ice as well as the circulation of the ice-covered ocean. Many surprises emerged from the extraordinary accuracy and expanse of the space observations. Notable examples include the determination of the global mean sea level rise as well as the role of the deep ocean in tidal mixing and dissipation.

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The investigation of using a novel radial basis function-based meshfree method for forward modelling magnetotelluric data is presented. The meshfree method, which can be termed radial basis function-based finite difference (RBF-FD), uses only a cloud of unconnected points to obtain the numerical solution throughout the computational domain. Unlike mesh-based numerical methods (for example, grid-based finite difference, finite volume and finite element), the meshfree method has the unique feature that the discretization of the conductivity model can be decoupled from the discretization used for numerical computation, thus avoiding traditional expensive mesh generation and allowing complicated geometries of the model be easily represented. To accelerate the computation, unstructured point discretization with local refinements are employed. Maxwell’s equations in the frequency domain are re-formulated using $\mathbf {A}$-ψ potentials in conjuction with the Coulomb gauge condition, and are solved numerically with a direct solver to obtain magnetotelluric responses. A major obstacle in applying common meshfree methods in modelling geophysical electromagnetic data is that they are incapable of reproducing discontinuous fields such as the discontinuous electric field over conductivity jumps, causing spurious solutions. The occurrence of spurious, or non-physical, solutions when applying standard meshfree methods is removed here by proposing a novel mixed scheme of the RBF-FD and a Galerkin-type weak-form treatment in discretizing the equations. The RBF-FD is applied to the points in uniform conductivity regions, whereas the weak-form treatment is introduced to points located on the interfaces separating different homogeneous conductivity regions. The effectiveness of the proposed meshfree method is validated with two numerical examples of modelling the magnetotelluric responses over three-dimensional conductivity models.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉Receiver functions are sensitive to sharp seismic velocity variations with depth and are commonly used to constrain crustal thickness. The H-κ stacking method of Zhu and Kanamori (〈span〉2000〈/span〉) is often employed to constrain both the crustal thickness (H) and ${V_P}$/${V_S}$ ratio ($\kappa $) beneath a seismic station using P-to-s converted waves (Ps). However, traditional H-κ stacks require an assumption of average crustal velocity (usually ${V_P}$). Additionally, large amplitude reverberations from low velocity shallow layers, such as sedimentary basins, can overprint sought-after crustal signals, rendering traditional H-$\ \kappa $ stacking uninterpretable. We overcome these difficulties in two ways. When S-wave reverberations from sediment are present, they are removed by applying a resonance removal filter allowing crustal signals to be clarified and interpreted. We also combine complementary Ps receiver functions, Sp receiver functions, and the post-critical P wave reflection from the Moho (SP〈sub〉m〈/sub〉p) to remove the dependence on an assumed average crustal ${V_P}$. By correcting for sediment and combining multiple data sets, the crustal thickness, average crustal P-wave velocity, and crustal ${V_P}$/${V_S}$ ratio is constrained in geologic regions where traditional H-$\ \kappa $ stacking fails, without making an initial P-wave velocity assumption or suffering from contamination by sedimentary reverberations.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉In the original version of this article the author, Adrian Flores Orozco, was incorrectly listed. This has now been corrected and the publisher apologises for the error.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The evolution of the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP) since Jurassic is one of the key issues in the dynamics of lithosphere and mantle. The related studies benefited mostly from seismic tomography which provides velocity structures in the upper mantle. However, the upper-mantle structure is not well resolved compared to the continental areas due to the lack of seismic data in the Philippine Sea. We employ a 3-D gravity inversion constrained by an initial model based on the 〈span〉S〈/span〉-wave tomography (SL2013sv; Schaeffer & Lebedev 2013) to image the density structure of the upper mantle of the PSP and adjacent region. The resulting model shows a three-layer pattern of vertical high-low-high density variation in the upper mantle under the PSP. The thin high-density layer evidences for strong oceanic lithosphere in the West Philippine Sea. The relatively low dense mantle located below the PSP possibly originates from the asthenosphere. The PSP differs from the Pacific and the Indian-Australian plates in the whole depth range, while its structure is similar to the eastern Eurasian and Sunda plates. In the depth range, 200–300 km, the relative high-density zone beneath PSP extends to the Sunda Plate and to the eastern Eurasian Plate. We further estimated the conversion factor of our density model and the velocity model (SL2013sv; Schaeffer & Lebedev 2013) in order to locate the changes of compositional effects in the upper mantle. The negative conversion factor indicates that the compositional changes primarily affect the density anomalies beneath the PSP. We, therefore, describe the layered density structures as ‘sandwich’ pattern, which is unique and different from adjacent regions.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Low-velocity layers within the crust can indicate the presence of melt and lithologic differences with implications for crustal composition and formation. Seismic wave conversions and reverberations across the base of the crust or intracrustal discontinuities, analysed using the receiver function method, can be used to constrain crustal layering. This is commonly accomplished by inverting receiver functions jointly with surface wave dispersion. Recently, the proliferation of model-space search approaches has made this technique a workhorse of crustal seismology. We show that reverberations from shallow layers such as sedimentary basins produce spurious low-velocity zones when inverted for crustal structure with surface wave data of insufficiently high frequency. Therefore, reports of such layers in the literature based on inversions using receiver function data should be re-evaluated. We demonstrate that a simple resonance-removal filter can suppress these effects and yield reliable estimates of crustal structure, and advocate for its use in receiver-function based inversions.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We present a numerical method for simulating both single-event dynamic ruptures and earthquake sequences with full inertial effects in antiplane shear with rate-and-state fault friction. We use the second-order form of the wave equation, expressed in terms of displacements, discretized with high-order-accurate finite difference operators in space. Advantages of this method over other methods include reduced computational memory usage and reduced spurious high frequency oscillations. Our method handles complex geometries, such as non-planar fault interfaces and free surface topography. Boundary conditions are imposed weakly using penalties. We prove time stability by constructing discrete energy estimates. We present numerical experiments demonstrating the stability and convergence of the method, and showcasing applications of the method, including the transition in rupture style from crack-like ruptures to slip pulses for strongly rate-weakening friction and the simulation of earthquake sequences in a viscoelastic solid with a fully dynamic coseismic phase.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉We derive a theoretical relationship between the cross correlation of ambient Rayleigh waves (seismic ambient noise) and the attenuation parameter α associated with Rayleigh-wave propagation. In particular, we derive a mathematical expression for the multiplicative factor relating normalized cross correlation to the Rayleigh-wave Green’s function. Based on this expression, we formulate an inverse problem to determine α from cross correlations of recorded ambient signal. We conduct a preliminary application of our algorithm to a relatively small instrument array, conveniently deployed on an island. In our setup, the mentioned multiplicative factor has values of about 2.5 to 3, which, if neglected, could result in a significant underestimate of α. We find that our inferred values of α are reasonable, in comparison with independently obtained estimates found in the literature. Allowing α to vary with respect to frequency results in a reduction of misfit between observed and predicted cross correlations.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Global phases, viz. seismic phases that travel through the Earth’s core, can be used to locally image the crust by means of seismic interferometry. This method is known as Global Phase Seismic Interferometry (GloPSI). Traditionally, GloPSI retrieves low-frequency information (up to 1 Hz). Recent studies, however, suggest that there is high-frequency signal present in the coda of strong, distant earthquakes. This research quantifies the potential of these high-frequency signals, by analysing recordings of a multitude of high-magnitude earthquakes (≥6.4 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉) and their coda on a selection of permanent USArray stations. Nearly half of the 〈span〉P, PKP〈/span〉 and PKIKP phases are recorded with a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 5 dB at 3 Hz. To assess the viability of using the high-frequency signal, the second half of the paper highlights two case studies. First, a known sedimentary structure is imaged in Malargüe, Argentina. Secondly, the method is used to reveal the structure of the Midcontinent Rift below the SPREE array in Minnesota, USA. Both studies demonstrate that structural information of the shallow crust (≤5 km) below the arrays can be retrieved. In particular, the interpreted thickness of the sedimentary layer below the Malargüe array is in agreement with earlier studies in the same area. Being able to use global phases and direct 〈span〉P〈/span〉-phases with large epicentral distances (〉80°) to recover the Earth’s sedimentary structure suggests that GloPSI can be applied in an industrial context.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The localization of passive seismic sources in form of microseismic tremors as well as large-scale earthquakes is a key issue in seismology. While most previous studies are assuming fairly good knowledge of the underlying velocity model, we propose an automatic spatial localization and joint velocity model building scheme that is independent of detailed 〈span〉a priori〈/span〉 information. The first step is a coherence analysis, estimating so-called wavefront attributes to locally describe the wavefield in terms of slopes and curvatures. In a similar fashion, we also obtain an initial guess of the source excitation times of the recorded events. The wavefront attributes constitute the input for wavefront tomography which represents the next step of the workflow and allows for a refinement of the previously evaluated source excitation times while simultaneously approximating the velocity distribution. In a last step, we use the final estimate of the velocity distribution and compute the respective image function by reverse time modelling to gain the source locations. This paper introduces the theoretical concept of our proposed approach for the general 3-D case. We analyse the feasibility of our strategy and the influences of different acquisition settings by means of a synthetic 2-D data example. In a final 3-D field data example we use the workflow to localize a deep earthquake without relying on a given velocity model. The approach can deal with high levels of noise and low signal amplitudes, respectively, as well as sparse geophone sampling. The workflow generally delivers good approximations of the long-wavelength velocity variations along with accurate source locations.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The 2017 July 20, 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉6.6 Bodrum–Kos earthquake occurred in the Gulf of Gökova in the SE Aegean, a region characterized by N–S extension in the backarc of the easternmost Hellenic Trench. The dip direction of the fault that ruptured during the earthquake has been a matter of controversy where both north- and south-dipping fault planes were used to model the coseismic slip in previous studies. Here, we use seismic (seismicity, main shock modelling, aftershock relocations and aftershock mechanisms using regional body and surface waves), geodetic (GPS, InSAR) and structural observations to estimate the location, and the dip direction of the fault that ruptured during the 2017 earthquake, and the relationship of this event to regional tectonics. We consider both dip directions and systematically search for the best-fitting locations for the north- and south-dipping fault planes. Comparing the best-fitting planes for both dip directions in terms of their misfit to the geodetic data, proximity to the hypocenter location and Coulomb stress changes at the aftershock locations, we conclude that the 2017 earthquake ruptured a north-dipping fault. We find that the earthquake occurred on a 20–25 km long, ∼E–W striking, 40° north-dipping, pure normal fault with slip primarily confined between 3 and 15 km depth, and the largest slip exceeding 2 m between depths of 4 and 10 km. The coseismic fault, not mapped previously, projects to the surface within the western Gulf, and partly serves both to widen the Gulf and separate Kos Island from the Bodrum Peninsula of SW Anatolia. The coseismic fault may be an extension of a mapped, north-dipping normal fault along the south side of the Gulf of Gökova. While all of the larger aftershocks are consistent with N–S extension, their spatially dispersed pattern attests to the high degree of crustal fracturing within the basin, due to rapid trenchward extension and anticlockwise rotation within the southeastern Aegean.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The harmonic electromagnetic noise produced by anthropic electrical structures is a critical component of the global noise affecting geophysical signals and increasing data uncertainty. It is composed of a series of harmonic signals whose frequencies are multiple integers of the fundamental frequency specific to the electrical noise source. To date, most model-based noise removal strategies assume that the fundamental frequency constraining the harmonic noise is single and constant over the duration of the geophysical record. In this paper, we demonstrate that classical harmonic processing methods lose efficacy when these assumptions are not valid. We present several surface nuclear magnetic resonance field data sets, which testify the increasing probability of recording the harmonic noise with such multiple or unstable frequency content. For each case (multiple frequencies or unstable frequency) we propose new processing strategies, namely, the 〈span〉2-D grid-search〈/span〉 and the 〈span〉segmentation〈/span〉 approach, respectively, which efficiently manage to remove the harmonic noise in these difficult conditions. In the process, we also apply a fast frequency estimator called the Nyman, Gaiser and Saucier estimation method, which shows equivalent performance as classical estimators while allowing a reduction of the computing time by a factor of 2.5.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Combinatorial methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes on a fault whose slip rate varies along strike. Input to the problem is a finite sample of earthquake magnitudes that span 5 kyr drawn from a truncated Pareto distribution. The primary constraints to the problem are maximum and minimum values around the target slip-rate function indicating where feasible solutions can occur. Two methods are used to determine the spatial distribution of earthquakes: integer programming and the greedy-sequential algorithm. For the integer-programming method, the binary decision vector includes all possible locations along the fault where each earthquake can occur. Once a set of solutions that satisfy the constraints is found, the cumulative slip misfit on the fault is globally minimized relative to the target slip-rate function. The greedy algorithm sequentially places earthquakes to locally optimize slip accumulation. As a case study, we calculate how earthquakes are distributed along the megathrust of the Nankai subduction zone, in which the slip rate varies significantly along strike. For both methods, the spatial distribution of magnitudes depends on slip rate, except for the largest magnitude earthquakes that span multiple sections of the fault. The greedy-sequential algorithm, previously applied to this fault (Parsons et al., 2012), tends to produce smoother spatial distributions and fewer lower magnitude earthquakes in the low slip-rate section of the fault compared to the integer-programming method. Differences in results from the two methods relate to how much emphasis is placed on minimizing the misfit to the target slip rate (integer programming) compared to finding a solution within the slip-rate constraints (greedy sequential). Specifics of the spatial distribution of magnitudes also depend on the shape of the target slip-rate function: that is, stepped at the section boundaries versus a smooth function. This study isolates the effects of slip-rate variation along a single fault in determining the spatial distribution of earthquake magnitudes, helping to better interpret results from more complex, interconnected fault systems.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The southcentral Hikurangi subduction margin (North Island, New Zealand) has a wide, low-taper accretionary wedge that is frontally accreting a 〉3-km-thick layer of sediments, with deformation currently focused near the toe of the wedge. We use a geological model based on a depth-converted seismic section, together with physically realistic parameters for fluid pressure, and sediment and décollement friction based on laboratory experiments, to investigate the present-day force balance in the wedge. Numerical models are used to establish the range of physical parameters compatible with the present-day wedge geometry and mechanics. Our analysis shows that the accretionary wedge stability and taper angle require either high to moderate fluid pressure on the plate interface, and/or weak frictional strength along the décollement. The décollement beneath the outer wedge requires a relatively weaker effective strength than beneath the inner (consolidated) wedge. Increasing density and cohesion with depth make it easier to attain a stable taper within the inner wedge, while anything that weakens the wedge—such as high fluid pressures and weak faults—make it harder. Our results allow a near-hydrostatic wedge fluid pressure, sublithostatic fluid overpressure at the subduction interface, and friction coefficients compatible with measurements from laboratory experiments on weak clay minerals.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We present a new methodology to compute the gravitational fields generated by tesseroids (spherical prisms) whose density varies with depth according to an arbitrary continuous function. It approximates the gravitational fields through the Gauss–Legendre Quadrature along with two discretization algorithms that automatically control its accuracy by adaptively dividing the tesseroid into smaller ones. The first one is a preexisting 2-D adaptive discretization algorithm that reduces the errors due to the distance between the tesseroid and the computation point. The second is a new density-based discretization algorithm that decreases the errors introduced by the variation of the density function with depth. The amount of divisions made by each algorithm is indirectly controlled by two parameters: the distance-size ratio and the delta ratio. We have obtained analytical solutions for a spherical shell with radially variable density and compared them to the results of the numerical model for linear, exponential, and sinusoidal density functions. The heavily oscillating density functions are intended only to test the algorithm to its limits and not to emulate a real world case. These comparisons allowed us to obtain optimal values for the distance-size and delta ratios that yield an accuracy of 0.1 per cent of the analytical solutions. The resulting optimal values of distance-size ratio for the gravitational potential and its gradient are 1 and 2.5, respectively. The density-based discretization algorithm produces no discretizations in the linear density case, but a delta ratio of 0.1 is needed for the exponential and most sinusoidal density functions. These values can be extrapolated to cover most common use cases, which are simpler than oscillating density profiles. However, the distance-size and delta ratios can be configured by the user to increase the accuracy of the results at the expense of computational speed. Finally, we apply this new methodology to model the Neuquén Basin, a foreland basin in Argentina with a maximum depth of over 5000 m, using an exponential density function.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉Summary〈/div〉The dynamics of dyke emplacement are typically modeled by assuming an elastic rheology for the host rock. However, the resulting stress field predicts significant shear failure in the region surrounding the dyke tip. Here, we model the dyking process in an elastic-perfectly plastic host rock in order to simulate distributed shear fracturing and subsequent frictional slip on the fracture surfaces. The fluid mechanical aspects of the magma are neglected as we are interested only in the fracture mechanics of the process. Magma overpressure in dykes is typically of the same order of magnitude as the yield stress of the host rock in shear, especially when the pressure effect of volatiles exsolving from the magma is taken into account. Under these conditions, the plastic deformation zone has spatial dimensions that approach the length of the dyke itself, and concepts based on linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) no longer apply. As incremental plasticity is path dependent, we describe two geologically meaningful endmember cases, namely dyke propagation at constant driving pressure, and gradual inflation of a pre-existing crack. For both models, we find that plastic deformation surrounding the fracture tip enhances dyke opening, and thus increases the energy input into the system due to pressure work integrated over the fracture wall. At the same time, energy is dissipated by plastic deformation. Dissipation in the propagation model is greater by about an order of magnitude than it is in the inflation model because the propagating dyke tip leaves behind it a broad halo of deformation due to plastic bending and unbending in the relict process zone. The net effect is that plastic deformation impedes dyke growth in the propagation model, while it enhances dyke growth in the inflation model. The results show that, when the plastic failure zone is large, a single parameter such as fracture toughness is unable to capture the physics that underpin the resistance of a fracture or dyke against propagation. In these cases, plastic failure has to be modeled explicitly for the given conditions. We provide analytical approximations for the propagation forces and the maximum dyke aperture for the two endmember cases, that is, the propagating dyke and the dyke formed by inflation of a crack. Furthermore, we show that the effect of plasticity on dyke energetics, together with an overestimate of magma pressure when interpreting dyke aspect ratios using elastic host rock models, offers a possible explanation for the long-standing paradox that laboratory measurements of fracture toughness of rocks consistently indicate values about two orders of magnitude lower than those derived from dyke observations.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Building geomechanical models for induced seismicity in complex reservoirs poses a major challenge, in particular if many faults need to be included. We developed a novel way of calculating induced stress changes and associated seismic moment response for structurally complex reservoirs with tens to hundreds of faults. Our specific target was to improve the predictive capability of stress evolution along multiple faults, and to use the calculations to enhance physics-based understanding of the reservoir seismicity. Our methodology deploys a mesh-free numerical and analytical approach for both the stress calculation and the seismic moment calculation. We introduce a high-performance computational method for high-resolution induced Coulomb stress changes along faults, based on a Green's function for the stress response to a nucleus of strain. One key ingredient is the deployment of an octree representation and calculation scheme for the nuclei of strain, based on the topology and spatial variability of the mesh of the reservoir flow model. Once the induced stress changes are evaluated along multiple faults, we calculate potential seismic moment release in a fault system supposing an initial stress field. The capability of the approach, dubbed as MACRIS (〈strong〉M〈/strong〉echanical 〈strong〉A〈/strong〉nalysis of 〈strong〉C〈/strong〉omplex 〈strong〉R〈/strong〉eservoirs for 〈strong〉I〈/strong〉nduced 〈strong〉S〈/strong〉eismicity) is proven through comparisons with finite element models. Computational performance and suitability for probabilistic assessment of seismic hazards are demonstrated though the use of the complex, heavily faulted Gullfaks field.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We test the feasibility of GPS-based rapid centroid moment tensor (GPS CMT) methods for Taiwan, one of the most earthquake prone areas in the world. In recent years, Taiwan has become a leading developer of seismometer-based earthquake early warning systems, which have successfully been applied to several large events. The rapid determination of earthquake magnitude and focal mechanism, important for a number of rapid response applications, including tsunami warning, is still challenging because of the limitations of near-field inertial recordings. This instrumental issue can be solved by an entirely different observation system: a GPS network. Taiwan is well posed to take advantage of GPS because in the last decade it has developed a very dense network. Thus, in this research, we explore the suitability of the GPS CMT inversion for Taiwan. We retrospectively investigate six moderate to large (〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉6.0 ∼ 7.0) earthquakes and propose a resolution test for our model, we find that the minimum resolvable earthquake magnitude of this system is ∼〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉w〈/sub〉5.5 (at 5 km depth). Our tests also suggest that the finite fault complexity, often challenging for the near-field methodology, can be ignored under such good station coverage and thus, can provide a fast and robust solution for large earthquake directly from the near field. Our findings help to understand and quantify how the proposed methodology could be implemented in real time and what its contributions could be to the overall earthquake monitoring system.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Time-domain processing of seismic reflection data has always been an important engine that is routinely utilized to produce seismic images and to expeditiously construct subsurface models. The conventional procedure involves analysing parameters related to the derivatives of reflection traveltime with respect to offset including normal moveout (NMO) velocities (second-order derivatives) and quartic coefficients (fourth-order derivatives). In this study, we propose to go beyond the typical assumption of 1-D laterally homogeneous medium when relating those ‘processing’ parameters to the subsurface medium parameters and take into account the additional influences from lateral heterogeneity including curved interfaces and smoothly variable velocities. We fill in the theoretical gap from previous studies and develop a general framework for such connection in layered anisotropic media. We show that in general, the influences of lateral heterogeneity get accumulated from all layers via a recursive relationship according to the Fermat’s principle and can be approximately quantified in terms of the lateral derivatives of the layer interface surfaces and velocities. Based on the same general principle, we show that our approach can also be used to study the lateral heterogeneity effects on diffraction traveltime and its second-order derivative related to time-migration velocity. In this paper, we explicitly specify expressions for NMO and time-migration velocities with the influences from both types of heterogeneity suitable for 2-D data sets and also discuss possible extensions of the proposed theory to 3-D data sets and to parameters related to higher-order traveltime derivatives. Using numerical examples, we demonstrate that the proposed theory can lead to more accurate reflection and diffraction traveltime predictions in comparison with those obtained based on the 1-D assumption. Both the proposed theoretical framework and its numerical testing for forward traveltime computation presented in this study aid in understanding the effects from lateral heterogeneity on time-processing parameters and also serve as an important basis for designing an efficient technique to separate those influences in important processes such as Dix inversion for a more accurate subsurface model in the future.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Estimating shear wave velocity with depth from Rayleigh-wave dispersion data is limited by the accuracy of fundamental and higher mode identification and characterization. In many cases, the fundamental mode signal propagates exclusively in retrograde motion, while higher modes propagate in prograde motion. It has previously been shown that differences in particle motion can be identified with multicomponent recordings and used to separate prograde from retrograde signals. Here we explore the domain of existence of prograde motion of the fundamental mode, arising from a combination of two conditions: (1) a shallow, high-impedance contrast and (2) a high Poisson ratio material. We present solutions to isolate fundamental and higher mode signals using multicomponent recordings. Previously, a time-domain polarity mute was used with limited success due to the overlap in the time domain of fundamental and higher mode signals at low frequencies. We present several new approaches to overcome this low-frequency obstacle, all of which utilize the different particle motions of retrograde and prograde signals. First, the Hilbert transform is used to phase shift one component by 90° prior to summation or subtraction of the other component. This enhances either retrograde or prograde motion and can increase the mode amplitude. Secondly, we present a new time–frequency domain polarity mute to separate retrograde and prograde signals. We demonstrate these methods with synthetic and field data to highlight the improvements to dispersion images and the resulting dispersion curve extraction.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We use seismic noise cross-correlations to obtain a 3-D tomography model of 〈span〉SV〈/span〉-wave velocities beneath the western Indian Ocean, in the depth range of the oceanic crust and uppermost mantle. The study area covers 2000 × 2000 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 between Madagascar and the three spreading ridges of the Indian Ocean, centred on the volcanic hotspot of La Réunion. We use seismograms from 38 ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) deployed by the RHUM-RUM project and 10 island stations on La Réunion, Madagascar, Mauritius, Rodrigues, and Tromelin. Phase cross-correlations are calculated for 1119 OBS-to-OBS, land-to-OBS, and land-to-land station pairs, and a phase-weighted stacking algorithm yields robust group velocity measurements in the period range of 3–50 s. We demonstrate that OBS correlations across large interstation distances of 〉2000 km are of sufficiently high quality for large-scale tomography of ocean basins. Many OBSs yielded similarly good group velocity measurements as land stations. Besides Rayleigh waves, the noise correlations contain a low-velocity wave type propagating at 0.8–1.5 km s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 over distances exceeding 1000 km, presumably Scholte waves travelling through seafloor sediments. The 100 highest-quality group velocity curves are selected for tomographic inversion at crustal and lithospheric depths. The inversion is executed jointly with a data set of longer-period, Rayleigh-wave phase and group velocity measurements from earthquakes, which had previously yielded a 3-D model of Indian Ocean lithosphere and asthenosphere. Robust resolution tests and plausible structural findings in the upper 30 km validate the use of noise-derived OBS correlations for adding crustal structure to earthquake-derived tomography of the oceanic mantle. Relative to crustal reference model CRUST1.0, our new shear-velocity model tends to enhance both slow and fast anomalies. It reveals slow anomalies at 20 km depth beneath La Réunion, Mauritius, Rodrigues Ridge, Madagascar Rise, and beneath the Central Indian spreading ridge. These structures can clearly be associated with increased crustal thickness and/or volcanic activity. Locally thickened crust beneath La Réunion and Mauritius is probably related to magmatic underplating by the hotspot. In addition, these islands are characterized by a thickened lithosphere that may reflect the depleted, dehydrated mantle regions from which the crustal melts where sourced. Our tomography model is available as electronic supplement.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Since the completion of the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer mission (GOCE), global gravity models of uniform quality and coverage are available. We investigate their potential of being useful tools for estimating the thermal structure of the continental lithosphere, through simulation and real-data test in Central-Eastern Europe across the Trans-European Suture Zone. Heat flow, measured near the Earth surface, is the result of the superposition of a complex set of contributions, one of them being the heat production occurring in the crust. The crust is enriched in radioactive elements respect to the underlying mantle and crustal thickness is an essential parameter in isolating the thermal contribution of the crust. Obtaining reliable estimates of crustal thickness through inversion of GOCE-derived gravity models has already proven feasible, especially when weak constraints from other observables are introduced. We test a way to integrate this in a geothermal framework, building a 3-D, steady state, solid Earth conductive heat transport model, from the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary to the surface. This thermal model is coupled with a crust-mantle boundary depth resulting from inverse modelling, after correcting the gravity model for the effects of topography, far-field isostatic roots and sediments. We employ a mixed space- and spectral-domain based forward modelling strategy to ensure full spectral coherency between the limited spectral content of the gravity model and the reductions. Deviations from a direct crustal thickness to crustal heat production relationship are accommodated using a subsequent substitution scheme, constrained by surface heat flow measurements, where available. The result is a 3-D model of the lithosphere characterised in temperature, radiogenic heat and thermal conductivity. It provides added information respect to the lithospheric structure and sparse heat flow measurements alone, revealing a satisfactory coherence with the geological features in the area and their controlling effect on the conductive heat transport.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We investigate the possibility of passive monitoring of a salt-water disposal well in British Columbia, Canada, using continuously recorded ambient seismic noise. We find seismic velocity variations induced by a reduction of injection pressure in an effort to mitigate an elevated level of seismicity, most likely associated with the disposal of salt water. The relative velocity variations are derived from time-shifts measured between consecutive cross-correlation functions for each station pair in a surface array composed of five broad-band seismometers. The probable driving mechanisms responsible for the velocity changes are reduced pore pressures and/or lowered poroelastic stresses beyond the injection wellbore, respectively. Hydrologic data (e.g. snow and rainfall), noise energy trends and fluctuations in the incident direction of dominant noise sources do not correlate with the estimated relative velocity variations. Velocity variations are detected ahead of the zone of induced seismicity, thus indicating that seismic interferometry may aid in mitigation efforts to reduce the risk of induced seismicity by (1) providing verifiable and repeatable measurements of physical changes within the surrounding area and (2) providing hard constraints for modelling efforts to constrain how and where pore-pressure fronts change.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Electrical conductivity is one of the most commonly used geophysical method for reservoir and environmental studies. Its main interest lies in its sensitivity to key properties of storage and transport in porous media. Its quantitative use therefore depends on the efficiency of the petrophysical relationship to link them. In this work, we develop a new physically based model for estimating electrical conductivity of saturated porous media. The model is derived assuming that the porous media is represented by a bundle of tortuous capillary tubes with a fractal pore-size distribution. The model is expressed in terms of the porosity, electrical conductivity of the pore liquid and the microstructural parameters of porous media. It takes into account the interface properties between minerals and pore water by introducing a surface conductivity. Expressions for the formation factor and hydraulic tortuosity are also obtained from the model derivation. The model is then successfully compared with published data and performs better than previous models. The proposed approach also permits to relate the electrical conductivity to other transport properties such as the hydraulic conductivity.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Thinning of the lithosphere under continental collisional orogens is often attributed to delamination or convective thinning. Both processes remove part or all of the mantle lithosphere that has become denser and gravitationally unstable. Previous studies mostly focused on the different thermomagmatic consequences of these two processes; the dynamic links between them, and the critical conditions for one or the other process to dominate lithosphere thinning, remain uncertain. Here, we used high-resolution thermomechanical models with various rheology (linear viscous, power-law viscous and/or the extended Drucker–Prager plasticity) to systematically investigate the dynamics of delamination and convective thinning under collisional orogens. Our results show that convective thinning is favoured in models of linear (Newtonian) viscous rheology and low viscosity $({10^{19}}\!-\! {10^{20}}\,\,{\rm{Pa}} \, {\rm{s}})$. Power-law viscous rheology promotes strain localization, which reduces the effective viscosity and may lead to localized rising of the asthenosphere to the crustal base, thus triggering delamination. Further strain localization and stronger delamination are predicted with inclusion of plastic rheology in the model. These results indicate that convective thinning and delamination are dynamically linked and can occur in the same orogeny. Their relative dominance during orogenesis may be distinguished by the resulting spatiotemporal evolutions of thermal perturbation, magmatism and elevation changes. We applied the models to show that the evolution of the Central Anatolian Plateau is consistent with the dominance of convective thinning, whereas delamination played a major role in thinning the mantle lithosphere under central-northern Tibetan Plateau.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Developing a model for anthropogenic seismic hazard remains an open challenge whatever the geo-resource production. We analyse the (〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉) largest reported magnitude on each site where (RTS) Reservoir Triggered Seismicity in documented (37 events, 1933–2008), for aftershocks of reservoir impoundment loading. We relate each reservoir impoundment to its magnitude-equivalent 〈span〉M〈/span〉*〈sub〉reservoir〈/sub〉 = 〈span〉M〈/span〉*(〈span〉L〈/span〉〈sub〉r〈/sub〉). We use (〈span〉L〈/span〉〈sub〉r〈/sub〉) the reservoir length as a proxy for a rupture length of the reservoir main shock-equivallent. This latter is derived from the empirical relationship that exists for tectonic earthquake among magnitude and rupture length. We resolve (i) 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉 for RTS are bounded by 〈span〉M〈/span〉*〈sub〉reservoir〈/sub〉 at a 95 per cent confidence level; (ii) in average 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉 are smaller than 〈span〉M〈/span〉*〈sub〉reservoir〈/sub〉 by 2.2 units (iii) 50 per cent of the 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉 occurrence is within 2 ± 1 yr from the reservoir impoundment. These triggering patterns support the signature of fluid driven seismicity during the slow reservoir impoundment emerges as a weaker efficiency (larger Δ〈span〉M〈/span〉 = 〈span〉M〈/span〉*〈sub〉reservoir〈/sub〉 – 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉) to trigger 〈span〉M〈/span〉〈sub〉max〈/sub〉 events than from earthquake interactions.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉The activities of frontal thrusts in the northern Qilian Shan are critical for understanding the deformation of the Qilian Shan and the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we estimate the slip rate of the active Fodongmiao–Hongyazi thrust along the northern margin of the Qilian Shan. High-resolution satellite imagery interpretations and detailed field investigations suggest that the fault displaced late Pleistocene terraces and formed fresh prominent north-facing fault scarps. To quantify the slip rate of the fault, we measured the displacements along the fault scarps using an unmanned aerial vehicle system and dated the displaced geomorphic surfaces using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and 〈sup〉14〈/sup〉C methods. The vertical slip rate of the fault is estimated at 1.0 ± 0.3 mm yr〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 for the western segment. The slip rates for two branches in the eastern segment are 0.3 ± 0.1 and 0.6 ± 0.1 mm yr〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. Using a fault dip of 40 ± 10°, we constrain the corresponding shortening rates to 1.4 ± 0.5 and 1.2 ± 0.4 mm yr〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉, respectively. The rates are consistent with values over different timescales, which suggests steady rock uplift and northeastward growth of the western Qilian Shan. Crustal shortening occurs mainly on the range-bounding frontal thrust.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉We present a numerical method for the simulation of earthquake cycles on a 1-D fault interface embedded in a 2-D homogeneous, anisotropic elastic solid. The fault is governed by an experimentally motivated friction law known as rate-and-state friction which furnishes a set of ordinary differential equations which couple the interface to the surrounding volume. Time enters the problem through the evolution of the ordinary differential equations along the fault and provides boundary conditions for the volume, which is governed by quasi-static elasticity. We develop a time-stepping method which accounts for the interface/volume coupling and requires solving an elliptic partial differential equation for the volume response at each time step. The 2-D volume is discretized with a second-order accurate finite difference method satisfying the summation-by-parts property, with boundary and fault interface conditions enforced weakly. This framework leads to a provably stable semi-discretization. To mimic slow tectonic loading, the remote side-boundaries are displaced at a slow rate, which eventually leads to earthquake nucleation at the fault. Time stepping is based on an adaptive, fourth-order Runge–Kutta method and captures the highly varying timescales present. The method is verified with convergence tests for both the orthotropic and fully anisotropic cases. An initial parameter study reveals regions of parameter space where the systems experience a bifurcation from period one to period two behaviour. Additionally, we find that anisotropy influences the recurrence interval between earthquakes, as well as the emergence of aseismic transients and the nucleation zone size and depth of earthquakes.〈/span〉

Description: 〈span〉〈div〉SUMMARY〈/div〉Palaeomagnetic constraints are essential factors in the reconstruction of the Mesozoic convergence of Eastern Asia blocks. As one of the key blocks, Indochina was constrained only by sedimentary-rocks-derived palaeomagnetic data. To evaluate whether the palaeomagnetic data used to restore the Late Triassic position of Indochina suffered inclination shallowing effects, we conducted a palaeomagnetic and geochronologic study on a coeval volcanic clastic rocks sequence in the western margin of the Khorat Basin, Thailand. The U-Pb SIMS dating on zircons indicates the age of the sampling section is between 205.1 ± 1.5 and 204.7 ± 1.4 Ma. Site mean directions are D〈sub〉g〈/sub〉/I〈sub〉g〈/sub〉 = 217.2°/−39.4° (κ〈sub〉g〈/sub〉 = 45.1, α〈sub〉95g〈/sub〉 = 10.1°) before and D〈sub〉s〈/sub〉/I〈sub〉s〈/sub〉 = 209.2°/−44.5° (κ〈sub〉s〈/sub〉 = 43.8, α〈sub〉95s〈/sub〉 = 10.2°) after tilt correction. The new data set indicates a positive reversal test result at ‘Category C’ level. The characteristic remanent magnetization recorded by the coexistent magnetite and hematite is interpreted to be primary remanence acquired during the initial cooling of the volcanic clastic rocks. The consistence of the corresponding palaeolatitudes derived from the volcanic clastic rocks and the former reported sedimentary rocks suggests that there is probably no significant inclination shallowing bias in the sedimentary-rocks-derived palaeomagnetic data. Therefore, the estimates of the Late Triassic position of Indochina are confirmed to be reliable. The Indochina Block had collided to the southern margin of Eurasia by the Late Triassic and played an important role in the Mesozoic convergence of the Eastern Asia blocks.〈/span〉