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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
  • Climate change
  • Springer  (50)
  • American Geophysical Union  (24)
  • 2010-2014  (32)
  • 1995-1999  (42)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-11-16
    Description: Active volcanoes characterized by open conduit conditions generate sonic and infrasonic signals, whose investigation provides useful information for both monitoring purposes and studying the dynamics of explosive processes. In this work, we discuss the automatic procedures implemented for a real-time application to the data acquired by a permanent network of five infrasound stations running at Mt. Etna volcano. The infrasound signals at Mt. Etna consist in amplitude transients, called infrasound events. The adopted procedure uses a multi-algorithm approach for event detection, counting, characterization and location. It is designed for an efficient and accurate processing of infrasound records provided by single-site and array stations. Moreover, the source mechanism of these events can be investigated off-line or in near real-time by using three different models: i) Strombolian bubble; ii) resonating conduit and iii) Helmholtz resonator. The infrasound waveforms allow us to choose the most suitable model, to get quantitative information about the source and to follow the time evolution of the source parameters.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1215–1231
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: infrasound ; monitoring system ; Mt. Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: Long continuous seismic data recorded at five broadband seismic stations during 2006 at Campi Flegrei caldera have been analyzed. Introducing a coarse-grained method, we evaluate the time evolution of amplitude and polarization of the seismic noise in the frequency band common to long-period events. The series are modulated on tidal time scales: the root-mean square is basically dominated by solar contribution, while the azimuth of the polarization vector shows lunar diurnal and semidiurnal constituents. In addition, we find that in the frequency band common to long-period events the azimuths are polarized toward a specific area, suggesting that these persistent oscillations can be induced by the activity of the shallow geothermal reservoir.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2628–2637
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: sustained hydrothermal tremor ; Campi Flegrei Caldera ; polarization analysis ; tidal modulation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2010) American Geophysical Union
    Description: Seismic, deformation, and volcanic gas observations offer independent and complementary information on the activity state and dynamics of quiescent and eruptive volcanoes and thus all contribute to volcanic risk assessment. In spite of their wide use, there have been only a few efforts to systematically integrate and compare the results of these different monitoring techniques. Here we combine seismic (volcanic tremor and long‐period seismicity), deformation (GPS), and geochemical (volcanic gas plume CO2/SO2 ratios) measurements in an attempt to interpret trends in the recent (2007–2008) activity of Etna volcano. We show that each eruptive episode occurring at the Southeast Crater (SEC) was preceded by a cyclic phase of increase‐decrease of plume CO2/SO2 ratios and by inflation of the volcano’s summit captured by the GPS network. These observations are interpreted as reflecting the persistent supply of CO2‐rich gas bubbles (and eventually more primitive magmas) to a shallow (depth of 1–2.8 km asl) magma storage zone below the volcano’s central craters (CCs). Overpressuring of the resident magma stored in the upper CCs’ conduit triggers further magma ascent and finally eruption at SEC, a process which we capture as an abrupt increase in tremor amplitude, an upward (〉2800 m asl) and eastward migration of the source location of seismic tremor, and a rapid contraction of the volcano’s summit. Resumption of volcanic activity at SEC was also systematically anticipated by declining plume CO2/SO2 ratios, consistent with magma degassing being diverted from the central conduit area (toward SEC).
    Description: Published
    Description: Q09008
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 1.3. TTC - Sorveglianza geodetica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcano monitoring ; Mt. Etna volcano ; geochemistry and geophysics ; volcanic tremor ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2012-02-03
    Description: Influences of distant earthquakes on volcanic systems by dynamic stress transfer are well documented. We analyzed seismic signals and volcanic activity at Mount Etna during two periods, January 2006 and May 2008, that clearly showed variations coincident with distant earthquakes. In the first period, characterized by mild volcano activity, the effect of the dynamic stress transfer, caused by an earthquake in Greece (M = 6.8), was twofold: (1) banded tremor activity changed its features and almost disappeared; (2) a swarm of volcano‐tectonic (VT) earthquakes took place. The changes of the banded tremor were likely due to variations in rock permeability, caused by fluid flows driven by dynamic strain. The VT earthquake swarm probably developed as a secondary process, promoted by the dynamically triggered activation of magmatic fluids. The second period, May 2008, showed an intense explosive activity. During this interval, the dynamic stress transfer, associated with the arrival of the seismic waves of the Sichuan earthquake (M = 7.9), affected the character of the seismo‐volcanic signals and on the following day triggered an eruption. In particular, we observed changes in volcanic tremor and increases of both occurrence rate and energy of long period events. In this case, we suggest that dynamic stress transfer caused nucleation of new bubbles in volatile‐rich magma bodies with consequent buildup of pressure, highlighted by the increase of long period activity, followed by the occurrence of an eruption. We conclude that stresses from distant earthquakes are capable of modifying the state of the volcano.
    Description: Published
    Description: B12304
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Mt. Etna volcano ; dynamic stress transfer ; triggered eruption ; triggered seismicity ; volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We have found experimental evidence which shows that the volcanic tremor recorded at Deception Island (South Shetland Islands, Antarctica) is a superposition in time of overlapping hybrid events.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3069-3072
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Arrays ; volcanictremor ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this work, waveform variations in repeating volcanotectonic earthquakes occurring from 2001–2009 in the northeastern flank of Mt. Etna were studied. Changes in waveform were found mainly during 2002–2003; and consisted of a decreasing similarity in the coda of events in earthquake families, as revealed by cross-correlation analysis, and delays, increasing proportionally to the lapse time, detected by coda wave interferometry. Such variations, mainly evident at stations located in the north-eastern flank of the volcano, were likely due to medium changes taking place within this region. Localized medium velocity decreases were inferred to occur in 2002–2003, followed by successive increases. The velocity decrease was interpreted as being caused by the opening or enlargement of cracks, produced by intruding magma bodies, intense ground deformation, and/ or VT earthquake activity that accompanied the 2002–2003 Mt. Etna eruption. On the other hand, subsequent velocity increases were interpreted as resulting from healing processes.
    Description: Published
    Description: L18311
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: coda wave interferometry ; Etna ; VT earthquakes ; Pernicana fault ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Since the second half of the 1990s, the eruptive activity of Mount Etna has provided evidence that both explosive and effusive eruptions display periodic variations in discharge and eruption style. In this work, a multiparametric approach, consisting of comparing volcanological, geophysical, and geochemical data, was applied to explore the volcano's dynamics during 2009–2011. In particular, temporal and/or spatial variations of seismicity (volcano-tectonic earthquakes, volcanic tremor, and long-period and very long period events), ground deformation (GPS and tiltmeter data), and geochemistry (SO2 flux, CO2 flux, CO2/SO2 ratio) were studied to understand the volcanic activity, as well as to investigate magma movement in both deep and shallow portions of the plumbing system, feeding the 2011 eruptive period. After the volcano deflation, accompanying the onset of the 2008–2009 eruption, a new recharging phase began in August 2008. This new volcanic cycle evolved from an initial recharge phase of the intermediate-shallower plumbing system and inflation, followed by (i) accelerated displacement in the volcano's eastern flank since April 2009 and (ii) renewal of summit volcanic activity during the second half of 2010, culminating in 2011 in a cyclic eruptive behavior with 18 lava fountains from New Southeast Crater (NSEC). Furthermore, supported by the geochemical data, the inversion of ground deformation GPS data and the locations of the tremor sources are used here to constrain both the area and the depth range of magma degassing, allowing reconstructing the intermediate and shallow storage zones feeding the 2011 cyclic fountaining NSEC activity.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3519–3539
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Mt Etna ; seismology ; ground deformation ; geochemistry ; volcanology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Active volcanoes characterized by open conduit conditions generate sonic and infrasonic signals, whose investigation provides useful information for both monitoring purposes and studying the dynamics of explosive processes. In this work, we discuss the automatic procedures implemented for a real-time application to the data acquired by a permanent network of five infrasound stations running at Mt. Etna volcano. The infrasound signals at Mt. Etna consist in amplitude transients, called infrasound events. The adopted procedure uses a multi-algorithm approach for event detection, counting, characterization and location. It is designed for an efficient and accurate processing of infrasound records provided by single-site and array stations. Moreover, the source mechanism of these events can be investigated off-line or in near real-time by using three different models: (1) Strombolian bubble; (2) resonating conduit and (3) Helmholtz resonator. The infrasound waveforms allow us to choose the most suitable model, to get quantitative information about the source and to follow the time evolution of the source parameters.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1215–1231
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Infrasound ; monitoring system ; Mt. Etna volcano ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We investigated the banded tremor activity occurring at Mt. Etna volcano between August-October 2008 during the 2008-2009 eruption. The banded tremor occurred in episodes lasting 25-30 minutes with intervals in between the episodes of about 25 minutes. Seismic signal analyses showed that the banded tremor was characterised by spectral contents, wavefields and source locations that differed from the “ordinary” volcanic tremor. The infrasound recordings exhibited an intermittent infrasonic tremor alternating with the banded tremor episodes. Finally, nonlinear analyses suggested that banded tremor system can be considered chaotic, implying: i) sensitive dependence on initial conditions, suggesting not only that a banded tremor system requires particular conditions to generate, but also that slight variations of these conditions are able to greatly change the features of the banded tremor or even to stop it; ii) long-term unpredictability, that is, the impossibility to forecast the long-term evolution of the banded tremor. On the basis of all these results and analogies with geyser models, we suggest a model of banded tremor that invokes alternating recharge-discharge phases. Banded tremor is due to “perturbations” in shallow aquifers, such as fluid movement and bubble growth or collapse due to hydrothermal boiling, triggered by the heat and hot fluid transfer from the underlying magma bodies. This heat-fluid transfer also causes an increasing pressure in the aquifer leading to fluid-discharge. During this process the seismic radiation decreases and, if the fluid-discharge is well coupled with the atmosphere, acoustic signals are generated.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Banded tremor ; Mt. Etna volcano ; volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: Recent laboratory experiments on Etna basalt have permitted the generation of an extensive catalogue of acoustic emissions (AE) during two key experimental phases. Firstly, AE have been generated during triaxial compressional tests and formation of a complex fracture/damage zone. Secondly, rapid fluid decompression through the damage/shear zone after failure. We report new results from an advanced analysis method using AE spectrograms, allowing us to qualitatively identify high and low frequency events; essentially comparable to seismicity in volcanic areas. Our analysis, for the first time, quantitatively classifies ‘families’ of AE events belonging to the same experimental stage without prior knowledge. We then test the method using the AE catalogue for verification, which is not possible with field data. FFT spectra, obtained from AE, are subdivided into equal log intervals for which a local slope is calculated. Factor analysis has been then applied, in which we use a data matrix of columns representing the variables considered (frequency data averaged in bins) vs. rows indicating each AE data set. Factor analysis shows that the method is very effective and suitable for reducing data complexity, allowing distinct factors to be obtained. We conclude that most of the data variance (information content) can be well represented by three factors only, each one representing a well defined frequency range. Through the factor scores it is possible to represent data in a lower dimension factor space. Classification is then possible by identifying clusters of AE belonging to the same experimental stage. This allows us to propose a deformation/decompression interpretation based solely on the AE frequency analysis and to identify a third type of AE related to fluid movements in the deformation stage.
    Description: Published
    Description: 201-211
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: open
    Keywords: acoustic emissions ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: 129 Long Period (LP) events, divided in two families were recorded by 50 stations deployed on Mount Etna within an eruptive context in the second half of June 2008. In order to understand the mechanisms of these events, we perform moment tensor inversion. Numerical tests show that unconstrained inversion leads to reliable moment tensor solutions because of the close proximity of numerous stations to the source positions. However, single forces cannot be accurately determined as they are very sensitive to uncertainities in the velocity model. These tests emphasize the importance of using stations located as close as possible to the source in the inversion of LP events. Inversion of LP signals is initially unconstrained, in order to estimate the most likely mechanism. Constrained inversions then allow us to accurately determine the structural orientations of the mechanisms. Inversions for both families show mechanisms with strong volumetric components. These events are generated by cracks striking SW-NE for both families and dipping 70± SE (fam. 1) and 50± NW (fam. 2). The geometries of the cracks are different from the structures obtained by the location of these events. The orientation of the cracks is consistent with the local tectonic context on Mount Etna. The LP events seem to be a response to the lava fountain occuring on the 10th of May, 2008.
    Description: In press
    Description: (38)
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Long-Period events ; earthquake source mechanism ; Etna Volcano ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This paper presents an analysis of seismicity associated with the volcanic activity of Volcàn de Colima (México) and recorded in the period November 2005–April 2006 during a field survey by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)–Osservatorio Vesuviano, the Observatorio Vulcanologico de Colima of Colima University and the Instituto Andaluz de Geofisica, University of Granada. Three different types of volcanic earthquakes have been identified on the basis of their spectral properties: Type A (0.3–1 Hz), Type B (1–5 Hz) and Type C (3–4 Hz). Results of polarization analysis applied to Type A events show a predominance of radial motion, indicating that the wavefield comprises compressional waves (P) and shear waves polarized in the vertical plane (SV), while the signal always begins with a negative polarity. Type A, B and C earthquakes have been located using both a flat layered model and a 3D model including topography. Hypocentre distributions indicate that the source of Type A signals is very shallow and confined to a small volume lying about 1 km below the crater. In contrast, the source of Type B and C events is significantly deeper, with most hypocentres located in a volume of about 1 km3 centred at 2.5–3 km depth. A cluster analysis based on the crosscorrelation among the waveforms of different events recorded at the same station was applied to Type A earthquakes. Only two clusters, which include only a small percentage of events were found, indicating that earthquake families were uncommon during the period of our survey.
    Description: Published
    Description: 887-898
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Colima Volcano ; Long Period Events ; Earthquake location ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: On 16 November 2006, a 1 day long paroxysmal eruption occurred at the summit craters of Mt. Etna volcano. A multiparametric approach, consisting of analyzing infrasonic, seismic, and video camera recordings, was carried out to follow its evolution. Volcanological and geophysical observations identified three eruptive phases. In the first phase, infrasonic and seismic characteristics reflected the highly explosive nature of the activity. Waveform characterization of infrasound events confirmed the activity of the several explosive vents at the summit of Southeast Crater (SEC). During the second phase, results highlighted the decoupling between seismic and infrasonic sources, which was due to the decrease in explosive activity and the reactivation of effusive vents located south of Bocca Nuova and on the saddle between Bocca Nuova and SEC. The third phase was the most intense and was characterized by various volcanic phenomena (pyroclastic flows, jets of dark ash, and white steam). The very high radiated infrasonic energy, together with infrasound event features, led us to infer a gas enrichment of the shallow magma column, preceding by a few minutes and likely related to the pyroclastic flows in the SEC area. After the eruption at SEC, variations in infrasound events related to the activity of Northeast Crater (NEC) were found. The observed spectral changes and the source mechanism modeling of the NEC infrasound events suggest the existence of a link in the plumbing system feeding the two craters.
    Description: Published
    Description: B09301
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Etna ; Infrasound ; volcanic tremor ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: One hundred twenty-nine long-period (LP) events, divided into two families of similar events, were recorded by the 50 stations deployed on Mount Etna in the second half of June 2008. During this period lava was flowing from a lateral fracture after a summit Strombolian eruption. In order to understand the mechanisms of these events, we perform moment tensor inversions. Inversions are initially kept unconstrained to estimate the most likely mechanism. Numerical tests show that unconstrained inversion leads to reliable moment tensor solutions because of the close proximity of numerous stations to the source positions. However, single forces cannot be accurately determined as they are very sensitive to uncertainties in the velocity model. Constrained inversions for a crack, a pipe or an explosion then allow us to accurately determine the structural orientations of the source mechanisms. Both numerical tests and LP event inversions emphasise the importance of using stations located as close as possible to the source. Inversions for both families show mechanisms with a strong volumetric component. These events are most likely generated by cracks striking SW–NE for both families and dipping 70° SE (family 1) and 50° NW (family 2). For family 1 events, the crack geometry is nearly orthogonal to the dikelike structure along which events are located, while for family 2 the location gave two pipelike bodies that belong to the same plane as the crack mechanism. The orientations of the cracks are consistent with local tectonics, which shows a SW–NE weakness direction. The LP events appear to be a response to the lava fountain occurring on 10 May 2008 as opposed to the flank lava flow.
    Description: Published
    Description: B01304
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Etna Volcano ; long-period events ; source mechanism ; location ; plumbing systems ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Strong changes in seismic radiation, comparable to those preceding and/or accompanying eruptive activity in recent years, were recorded at Mt. Etna volcano, Italy, from November 2005 to January 2006. The amplitude of volcanic tremor peaked in mid-December 2005 after a continuous, slow increase from August 2005 onwards, during which neither effusive nor paroxysmal activity was observed by volcanologists and alpine guides. During this time span, the centroid locations of volcanic tremor moved towards the surface, more and more clustered below the summit craters. The application of pattern classification analysis based on Self-Organizing Maps and fuzzy clustering to volcanic tremor data highlighted variations in the frequency domain as well. These changes were temporally associated with ground deformation variations, as indicative of a mild inflation of the summit of the volcano, and with a conspicuous increase in the SO2 plume-flux emission. Overall, we interpret this evidence as the result of recharging of the volcanic feeder at depth (〉 3 km below sea level) during which magma did not reach the shallow plumbing system.
    Description: Published
    Description: 4989–5005
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: embargoed_20140606
    Keywords: time series analysis ; volcano seismology ; volcano monitoring ; neural network and fuzzy logic ; seismic tomography ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: From December 2005 to January 2006, an anomalous degassing episode was observed at Mount Etna, well-correlated with an increase in volcanic tremor, and in the almost complete absence of eruptive activity. In the same period, more than 10,000 very long period (VLP) events were detected. Through moment tensor inversion analyses of the VLP pulses, we obtained quantitative estimates of the volumetric variations associated with these events. This allowed a quantitative investigation of the relationship between VLP seismic activity, volcanic tremor, and gas emission rate at Mount Etna. We found a statistically significant positive correlation between SO2 gas flux and volcanic tremor, suggesting that tremor amplitude can be used as a first-order proxy for the background degassing activity of the volcano. VLP volumetric changes and SO2 gas flux are correlated only for the last part of our observations, following a slight change in the VLP source depth. We calculate that the gas associated with VLP signal genesis contributed less than 5% of the total gas emission. The existence of a linear correlation between VLP and degassing activities indicates a general relationship between these two processes. The effectiveness of such coupling appears to depend upon the particular location of the VLP source, suggesting that conduit geometry might play a significant role in the VLP-generating process. These results are the first report on Mount Etna of a quantitative relationship between the amounts of gas emissions directly estimated through instrumental flux measurements and the quantities of gas mass inferred in the VLP source inversion.
    Description: Published
    Description: 4910-4921
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Very Long Period seismicity ; UV scanners network ; Etna Volcano ; volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.06. Seismic methods ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: Among the eruptive styles, the Strombolian activity is one of the more easy to study because of its repetitive behavior. For this reason large amount of data can be comfortably collected. Strombolian volcanoes are like natural laborato- ries repeating the same experiment (individual explosions) many times each day. The development of quantitative models of eruptive dynamics is driven by the comparison of experimental ob- servations and synthetic data obtained through mathemat- ical, numerical or analogue modeling. Since Strombolian activity offers a profuse amount of interesting seismic signals, during the last decades there has been growing attention on seismological techniques aimed at retrieving the conduit geometry and the eruption dynamics from the seismological recordings. One of these techniques, the source function inversion, is able to re- trieve a summary of the forces acting on the volcanic con- duit during the VLP event generation [5]. The comparison of observed source functions with synthetic ones, obtained through numerical modeling, allow us to put constraints on the proposed models. Quantitative models, able to fit seismological observa- tions, are a powerful tool for interpreting seismic record- ings and therefor the seismological monitoring of active volcanoes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Strombolian activity ; Slug flow ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Seismic activity, ground deformation, and soil and fumarole temperatures acquired during 2004–2007 at Vulcano (Aeolian Islands) are analysed and the time relations among the different time series are discussed. Changes in temperature of fumarolic gases took place during four ‘‘anomalous’’ periods (November 2004–March 2005; October 2005–February 2006; August–October 2006; July–December 2007) at the same time as an increasing number of volcano-seismic events. In particular, the temperatures at high temperature vents and at steam heated soil ranged in time from 180 to 440 C and from 20 to 90 C, respectively. The maximum daily number of volcano-seismic events was 57, reached during the second anomalous period. This seismicity, characterised by focal depth generally lower than 1 km below sea level (b.s.l.) and composed of different kinds of events associated to both resonance and shear failure processes, is related to the shallow dynamics of the hydrothermal system. During the analysed period, very few volcano-tectonic earthquakes took place and tilt recordings showed no sharp or important changes. In light of such observations, the increases in both temperature and volcano-seismic events number were associated to increases in the release of gas from a deep and stable magma body, without magma intrusions within the shallow hydrothermal system. Indeed, a greater release of gas from depth leads to increased fluid circulation, that can promote increases in volcano-seismic events number by both fracturing processes and resonance and vibration in cracks and conduits. The different trends observed in the measured geochemical and geophysical series during the anomalous periods can be due to either time changes in the medium permeability or a changing speed of gas release from a deep magma body. Finally, all the observed variations, together with the changing temporal distribution of the different seismic event kinds, suggest that the hydrothermal system at Vulcano can be considered unsteady and dynamic.
    Description: Published
    Description: 167–182
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Volcano seismolog ; soil and fumarole temperatures ; tilt data ; hydrothermal system ; Vulcano Island ; volcanic unrest ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2017-11-17
    Description: Island (Antarctica), recorded during three Antarctic summers (1994- 1995, 1995-1996 and 1996-1997), are analyzed using a dense small-aperture (500 m) seismic array. The visual and spectral classification of the seismic events shows the existence of long-period and hybrid isolated seismic events, and of low-frequency, quasi-monochromatic and spasmodic continuous tremors, All spectra have the highest amplitudes in the frequency band between 1 and 4 Hz, while hybrids and spasmodic tremors have also significant amplitudes in the high-frequency band (4-10 Hz). The array analysis indicates that almost all the well-correlated low-frequency signals share similar array parameters (slowness and back azimuth) and have the same source area, close to the array site. The polarization analysis shows that phases at high-frequency are mostly composed of P waves, and those phases dominated by low frequencies can be interpreted as surface waves. No clear shear waves are evidenced. From the energy evaluation, we have found that the reduced displacement values for surface and body waves are confined in a narrow interval. Volcano-tectonic seismicity is located close to the array, at a depth shallower than 1 km. The wave-field properties of the seismovolcanic signals allow us to assume a unique source model, a shallow resonating fluid-filled crack system at a depth of some hundreds of meters. All of the seismic activity is interpreted as the response of a reasonably stable stationary geothermal process. The differences observed in the back azimuth between low and high frequencies are a near-field effect. A few episodes of the degassification process in an open conduit were observed and modeled with a simple organ pipe.
    Description: Published
    Description: 13905-13931
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Long Period Events ; Deception Island ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: We investigated the relationship between volcano-seismic events, recorded at La Fossa crater of Vulcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) during 2004-2006, and the dynamics of the hydrothermal system. During the period of study, three episodes of increasing numbers of volcano-seismic events took place at the same time as geothermal and geochemical anomalies were observed. These geothermal and geochemical anomalies have been interpreted as resulting from an increasing deep magmatic component of the hydrothermal fluids. Three classes of seismic events (long period, high frequency and monochromatic events), characterised by different spectral content and various similarity of the waveforms, have been recognised. These events, clustered mainly below La Fossa crater area at depths of 0.5–1.1 km b.s.l., were space-distributed according to the classes. Based on their features, we can infer that such events at Vulcano are related to two different source mechanisms: (1) fracturing processes of rocks and (2) resonance of cracks (or conduits) filled with hydrothermal fluid. In the light of these source mechanisms, the increase in the number of events, at the same time as geochemical and geothermal anomalies were observed, was interpreted as the result of an increasing magmatic component of the hydrothermal fluids, implying an increase of their flux. Indeed, such variation caused an increase of both the pore pressure within the rocks of the volcanic system and the amount of ascending fluids. Increased pore pressures gave rise to fracturing processes, while the increased fluid flux favoured resonance and vibration processes in cracks and conduits. Finally, a gradual temporal variation of the waveform of the hybrid events (one of the subclasses of long period events) was observed, likely caused by heating and drying of the hydrothermal system.
    Description: Published
    Description: 803-816
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Volcano seismology ; Vulcano Island ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C03019, doi:10.1029/2007JC004153.
    Description: Estimates of temporal trends in oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) rely on the ability of empirical methods to remove the large natural variability of the ocean carbon system. A coupled carbon-climate model is used to evaluate these empirical methods. Both the ΔC* and multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques reproduce the predicted increase in dissolved inorganic carbon for the majority of the ocean and have similar average percent errors for decadal differences (24.1% and 25.5%, respectively). However, this study identifies several regions where these methods may introduce errors. Of particular note are mode and deep water formation regions, where changes in air-sea disequilibrium and structure in the MLR residuals introduce errors. These results have significant implications for decadal repeat hydrography programs, indicating the need for subannual sampling in certain regions of the oceans in order to better constrain the natural variability in the system and to robustly estimate the intrusion of anthropogenic CO2.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from NSF (OCE02-23869), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a Linden Earth Systems Graduate Fellowship (MIT), and a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. R.W. is supported by the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research at NOAA.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; Ocean carbon sink ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3022, doi:10.1029/2010GB003892.
    Description: The North Atlantic Ocean accounts for about 25% of the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon sink. This basin experiences significant interannual variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A suite of biogeochemical model simulations is used to analyze the impact of interannual variability on the uptake and storage of contemporary and anthropogenic carbon (Canthro) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Greater winter mixing during positive NAO years results in increased mode water formation and subsequent increases in subtropical and subpolar Canthro inventories. Our analysis suggests that changes in mode water Canthro inventories are primarily due to changes in water mass volumes driven by variations in water mass transformation rates rather than local air-sea CO2 exchange. This suggests that a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon found in the ocean interior may be derived from surface waters advected into water formation regions rather than from local gas exchange. Therefore, changes in climate modes, such as the NAO, may alter the residence time of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean by altering the rate of water mass transformation. In addition, interannual variability in Canthro storage increases the difficulty of Canthro detection and attribution through hydrographic observations, which are limited by sparse sampling of subsurface waters in time and space.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program under the Office of Climate Observations and Global Carbon Cycle Program (NOAA‐NA07OAR4310098), NSF (OCE‐0623034), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and an Environmental Protection Agency STAR graduate fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation ; Anthropogenic carbon ; Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Global climate model ; Mode waters
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2012. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Plant and Soil 356 (2012): 405-417, doi:10.1007/s11104-012-1130-x.
    Description: Soil warming from global climate change could increase decomposition of fine woody debris (FWD), but debris size and quality may mitigate this effect. The goal of this study was to investigate the effect of soil warming on decomposition of fine woody debris of differing size and quality. We placed FWD of two size classes (2 × 20 cm and 4 × 40 cm) and four species (Acer saccharum, Betula lenta, Quercus rubra and Tsuga canadensis) in a soil warming and ambient area at Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts. We collected the debris from each area over two years and measured mass loss and lignin concentration. Warming increased mass loss for all species and size classes (by as much as 30%), but larger debris and debris with higher initial lignin content decomposed slower than smaller debris and debris with lower initial lignin content. Lignin degradation did not follow the same trends as mass loss. Lignin loss from the most lignin-rich species, T. canadensis, was the highest despite the fact that it lost mass the slowest. Our results suggest that soil warming will increase decomposition of FWD in temperate forests. It is imperative that future models and policy efforts account for this potential shift in the carbon storage pool.
    Keywords: Woody debris ; Lignin ; Decomposition ; Soil warming ; Climate change
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9 (2008): Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.
    Description: Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane-induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B.P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B.P. and 500–1000 years B.P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Niño state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.
    Description: Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, Risk Prediction Initiative, National Geographic Society, Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Paleotempestology ; Paleoclimate ; Holocene ; Climate change ; Sedimentology
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): G02026, doi:10.1029/2007JG000470.
    Description: Permafrost is a defining characteristic of the Arctic environment. However, climate warming is thawing permafrost in many areas leading to failures in soil structure called thermokarst. An extensive survey of a 600 km2 area in and around the Toolik Lake Natural Research Area (TLNRA) revealed at least 34 thermokarst features, two thirds of which were new since ∼1980 when a high resolution aerial survey of the area was done. Most of these thermokarst features were associated with headwater streams or lakes. We have measured significantly increased sediment and nutrient loading from thermokarst features to streams in two well-studied locations near the TLNRA. One small thermokarst gully that formed in 2003 on the Toolik River in a 0.9 km2 subcatchment delivered more sediment to the river than is normally delivered in 18 years from 132 km2 in the adjacent upper Kuparuk River basin (a long-term monitoring reference site). Ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate concentrations downstream from a thermokarst feature on Imnavait Creek increased significantly compared to upstream reference concentrations and the increased concentrations persisted over the period of sampling (1999–2005). The downstream concentrations were similar to those we have used in a long-term experimental manipulation of the Kuparuk River and that have significantly altered the structure and function of that river. A subsampling of other thermokarst features from the extensive regional survey showed that concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate were always higher downstream of the thermokarst features. Our previous research has shown that even minor increases in nutrient loading stimulate primary and secondary production. However, increased sediment loading could interfere with benthic communities and change the responses to increased nutrient delivery. Although the terrestrial area impacted by thermokarsts is limited, the aquatic habitat altered by these failures can be extensive. If warming in the Arctic foothills accelerates thermokarst formation, there may be substantial and wide-spread impacts on arctic stream ecosystems that are currently poorly understood.
    Description: The results presented in this report are based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants to the Arctic Hyporheic project (OPP- 0327440) and the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research Program (DEB- 9810222).
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Streams ; Ecosystem dynamics ; Sediment ; Thermokarst ; Water quality
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2003. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 108, C12 (2003): 3384, doi:10.1029/2002JC001347.
    Description: The decade of the 1990s was the warmest decade of the last century, while the year 1998 was the warmest year ever observed by modern techniques, with 9 out of 12 months of the year being the warmest months. Satellite ice cover and surface temperature data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (wind), and ocean hydrographic data are examined to gain insights into this warming phenomenon. Areas of ice-free water in both western and eastern regions of the Arctic are found to have followed a cyclical pattern with approximately decadal period but with a lag of about 3 years between the eastern and western regions. The pattern was interrupted by unusually large anomalies in 1993 and 1998 in the western region and in 1995 in the eastern region. The area of open water in 1998 was the largest ever observed in the western region and occurred concurrently with large surface temperature anomalies in the area and adjacent regions. This also occurred at a time when the atmospheric circulation changed from predominantly cyclonic in 1996 to anticyclonic in 1997 and 1998. Detailed hydrographic measurements over the same general area in April 1996 and April 1997 indicate a warming and significant freshening in the top layer of the ocean, suggesting increases in ice melt and/or river runoff. Continuous ocean temperature and salinity data from ocean buoys at depths of 8, 45, and 75 m confirm these results and show large interannual changes during the 1996–1998 period. Surface temperature data show a general warming in the region that is highly correlated with observed decline in summer sea ice, while hydrographic data suggest that in 1997 and 1998, the upper part of the ocean was unusually fresh and warm compared to available data between 1956 and 1996.
    Description: Deployments of the IOEB were supported by the Japanese Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC).
    Keywords: Arctic Sea ice ; Climate change ; Surface temperature ; Wind ; Buoy ; Hydrography
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): D22S09, doi:10.1029/2007JD008521.
    Description: We investigated the potential effects of elevated ozone (O3) along with climate variability, increasing CO2, and land use change on net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in China's terrestrial ecosystems for the period 1961–2000 with a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) forced by the gridded data of historical tropospheric O3 and other environmental factors. The simulated results showed that elevated O3 could result in a mean 4.5% reduction in NPP and 0.9% reduction in total carbon storage nationwide from 1961 to 2000. The reduction of carbon storage varied from 0.1 Tg C to 312 Tg C (a decreased rate ranging from 0.2% to 6.9%) among plant functional types. The effects of tropospheric O3 on NPP were strongest in east-central China. Significant reductions in NPP occurred in northeastern and central China where a large proportion of cropland is distributed. The O3 effects on carbon fluxes and storage are dependent upon other environmental factors. Therefore direct and indirect effects of O3, as well as interactive effects with other environmental factors, should be taken into account in order to accurately assess the regional carbon budget in China. The results showed that the adverse influences of increasing O3 concentration across China on NPP could be an important disturbance factor on carbon storage in the near future, and the improvement of air quality in China could enhance the capability of China's terrestrial ecosystems to sequester more atmospheric CO2. Our estimation of O3 impacts on NPP and carbon storage in China, however, must be used with caution because of the limitation of historical tropospheric O3 data and other uncertainties associated with model parameters and field experiments.
    Description: This research is funded by NASA Interdisciplinary Science Program (NNG04GM39C).
    Keywords: Air pollution ; Carbon storage ; China ; Climate change ; Net primary productivity ; Tropospheric ozone
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L15501, doi:10.1029/2012GL052222.
    Description: Starting in Late Pleistocene time (~19 ka), sea level rise inundated coastal zones worldwide. On some parts of the present-day circum-Arctic continental shelf, this led to flooding and thawing of formerly subaerial permafrost and probable dissociation of associated gas hydrates. Relict permafrost has never been systematically mapped along the 700-km-long U.S. Beaufort Sea continental shelf and is often assumed to extend to ~120 m water depth, the approximate amount of sea level rise since the Late Pleistocene. Here, 5,000 km of multichannel seismic (MCS) data acquired between 1977 and 1992 were examined for high-velocity (〉2.3 km s−1) refractions consistent with ice-bearing, coarse-grained sediments. Permafrost refractions were identified along 〈5% of the tracklines at depths of ~5 to 470 m below the seafloor. The resulting map reveals the minimum extent of subsea ice-bearing permafrost, which does not extend seaward of 30 km offshore or beyond the 20 m isobath.
    Description: This research was sponsored by DOE-USGS Interagency Agreement DE-FE0002911. L.B. was supported by a DOE NETL/NRC Methane Hydrate Fellowship under DE-FC26-05NT42248.
    Keywords: Beaufort Sea ; Climate change ; Methane hydrates ; Refraction ; Sea level ; Subsea permafrost
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analyze the distribution of volcanic earthquake recurrence intervals in the Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, and Hawaii regions and compare it with tectonic recurrence rates in California. We find that the distribution behavior is similar for volcanic and tectonic seismic events. In both cases, the recurrence interval distributions collapse onto the same master curve if time is rescaled by the average occurrence rate. This implies that both phenomena have the same temporal organization, and it is possible to adopt for volcanic areas that the same occurrence models used for tectonic regions.
    Description: Published
    Description: B10309
    Description: 1.4. TTC - Sorveglianza sismologica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcanic earthquake ; recurrence intervals ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): F03033, doi:10.1029/2009JF001486.
    Description: When modeling the large-scale (〉 km) evolution of coastline morphology, the influence of natural forces is not the only consideration; ongoing direct human manipulations can substantially drive geomorphic change. In this paper, we couple a human component to a numerical model of large-scale coastline evolution, incorporating beach “nourishment” (periodically placing sand on the beach, also called “beach replenishment” or “beach fill”). Beach nourishment is the most prevalent means humans employ to alter the natural shoreline system in our case study, the Carolina coastline. Beach nourishment can cause shorelines adjacent to those that are nourished to shift both seaward and landward. When we further consider how changes to storm behaviors could change wave climates, the magnitude of morphological change induced by beach nourishment can rival that expected from sea level rise and affect the coast as far as tens of kilometers away from the nourishment site. In some instances, nonlocal processes governing large-scale cuspate-cape coastline evolution may transmit the human morphological “signal” over surprisingly large (hundreds of kilometer) distances.
    Description: The National Science Foundation (DEB 0507987) and the Duke University Center on Global Change supported this work.
    Keywords: Coastline evolution ; Beach nourishment ; Climate change
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L06602, doi:10.1029/2010GL046573.
    Description: Iron is an essential micronutrient that limits primary productivity in much of the ocean, including the Gulf of Alaska (GoA). However, the processes that transport iron to the ocean surface are poorly quantified. We combine satellite and meteorological data to provide the first description of widespread dust transport from coastal Alaska into the GoA. Dust is frequently transported from glacially-derived sediment at the mouths of several rivers, the most prominent of which is the Copper River. These dust events occur most frequently in autumn, when coastal river levels are low and riverbed sediments are exposed. The dust plumes are transported several hundred kilometers beyond the continental shelf into iron-limited waters. We estimate the mass of dust transported from the Copper River valley during one 2006 dust event to be between 25–80 ktons. Based on conservative estimates, this equates to a soluble iron loading of 30–200 tons. We suggest the soluble Fe flux from dust originating in glaciofluvial sediment deposits from the entire GoA coastline is two to three times larger, and is comparable to the annual Fe flux to GoA surface waters from eddies of coastal origin. Given that glaciers are retreating in the coastal GoA region and in other locations, it is important to examine whether fluxes of dust are increasing from glacierized landscapes to the ocean, and to assess the impact of associated Fe on marine ecosystems.
    Description: We appreciate support from the USGS CMGP, NCCWSC, the Mendenhall postdoc program, the Woods Hole PEP intern program, and from NASA‐IDS.
    Keywords: Dust ; Glacier ; Iron ; Aerosol ; Climate change ; Micronutrient
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): C03026, doi:10.1029/2010JC006670.
    Description: A regional coupled model is used for a dynamic downscaling over the tropical Atlantic based on a global warming simulation carried out with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1. The regional coupled model features a realistic representation of equatorial ocean dynamical processes such as the tropical instability waves (TIWs) that are not adequately simulated in many global coupled climate models. The coupled downscaling hence provides a unique opportunity to assess their response and impact in a changing climate. Under global warming, both global and regional models exhibit an increased (decreased) rainfall in the tropical northeast (South) Atlantic. Given this asymmetric change in mean state, the regional model produces the intensified near-surface cross-equatorial southerly wind and zonal currents. The equatorial cold tongue exhibits a reduced surface warming due to the enhanced upwelling. It is mainly associated with the increased vertical velocities driven by cross-equatorial wind, in contrast to the equatorial Pacific, where thermal stratification is suggested to be more important under global warming. The strengthened upwelling and zonal currents in turn amplify the dynamic instability of the equatorial ocean, thereby intensifying TIWs. The increased eddy heat flux significantly warms the equator and counters the effect of enhanced upwelling. Zonal eddy heat flux makes the largest contribution, suggesting a need for sustained monitoring of TIWs with spatially denser observational arrays in the equatorial oceans. Overall, results suggest that eddy heat flux is an important factor that may impact the mean state warming of equatorial oceans, as it does in the current climate.
    Description: H.S. acknowledges the support from the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists at WHOI. H.S. and S.‐P.X. are thankful for support from NOAA, NSF, and the Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Ocean mesoscale eddy ; Equatorial Atlantic
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  • 33
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 87-106 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Climate change ; daily precipitation modelling ; generalized linear models ; iteratively reweighted least squares ; spline functions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The precipitation amounts on wet days at De Bilt (the Netherlands) are linked to temperature and surface air pressure through advanced regression techniques. Temperature is chosen as a covariate to use the model for generating synthetic time series of daily precipitation in a CO2 induced warmer climate. The precipitation-temperature dependence can partly be ascribed to the phenomenon that warmer air can contain more moisture. Spline functions are introduced to reproduce the non-monotonous change of the mean daily precipitation amount with temperature. Because the model is non-linear and the variance of the errors depends on the expected response, an iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is needed to estimate the regression coefficients. A representative rainfall sequence for the situation of a systematic temperature rise is obtained by multiplying the precipitation amounts in the observed record with a temperature dependent factor based on a fitted regression model. For a temperature change of 3°C (reasonable guess for a doubled CO2 climate according to the present-day general circulation models) this results in an increase in the annual average amount of 9% (20% in winter and 4% in summer). An extended model with both temperature and surface air pressure is presented which makes it possible to study the additional effects of a potential systematic change in surface air pressure on precipitation.
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  • 34
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 147 (1996), S. 1-24 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Climate change ; ground warming ; permafrost ; heat flow
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the “ramp” function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the “step function” model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth.
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  • 35
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    Foundations of science 2 (1997), S. 263-292 
    ISSN: 1572-8471
    Keywords: Climate change ; Mitigation ; Greenhouse gas emission ; Control ; Precautionary principle ; Precaution ; Decision making ; Uncertainty ; Feedbacks
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Notes: Abstract Taking precautions to prevent harm. Whether principe de précaution, Vorsorgeprinzip, føre-var prinsippet, or försiktighetsprincip, etc., the precautionary principle embodies the idea that public and private interests should act to prevent harm. Furthermore, the precautionary principle suggests that action should be taken to limit, regulate, or prevent potentially dangerous undertakings even in the absence of absolute scientific proof. Such measures also naturally entail taking economic costs into account. With the environmental disasters of the 1980s, the precautionary principle established itself as an operational concept. On the eve of the 1997 Climate Summit in Kyoto, precaution, as the precautionary principle is often referred to, has now become a key legal principle in environmental law, in general, and in current international climate negotiations, in particular, attempts to understand why. It examines in turn the natural affinity between the precautionary principle and climate change, reviews a series of issues which the principle raises, and discusses avenues which it opens paper, climate change fulfills the theoretical requirements set for the application of the precautionary principle. It comes as no surprise that the actual application of the precautionary principle in the context of climate change raises high political stakes. As a result, climate change science, in particular, and science, in general, is under the fire of politically-motivated scientific skeptics. Thus, by way of the counter-measures which must be put into effect, the precautionary principle calls for a greater sense of responsibility on the part of scientists and the public at large. Specifically, from scientists, it demands perseverance in rigor, excellence in communication, and committment to education. However, even if special efforts are made to implement the precautionary principle in the context of climate change, the success of climate change mitigation will constitute no test of the validity, the usefulness, or the efficiency of the precautionary principle. Indeed, the degree to which climate change mitigation succeeds only provides a measure of our kind's ability to manage responsibly the global commons which we inherited from our ancestors and which our generation enjoys, the global commons which we will pass on to today's children and to generations to come.
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  • 36
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Climate change ; Desert shrubs ; Colorado plateau ; Stable isotope ratio ; Summer precipitation
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    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract South-eastern Utah forms a northern border for the region currently influenced by the Arizona monosoonal system, which feeds moisture and summer precipitation into western North America. One major consequence predicted by global climate change scenarios is an intensification of monosoonal (summer) precipitation in the aridland areas of the western United States. We examined the capacity of dominant perennial shrubs in a Colorado Plateau cold desert ecosystem of southern Utah, United States, to use summer moisture inputs. We simulated increases of 25 and 50 mm summer rain events on Atriplex canescens, Artemisia filifolia, Chrysothamnus nauseosus, Coleogyne ramosissima, and Vanclevea stylosa, in July and September with an isotopically enriched water (enriched in deuterium but not 18O). The uptake of this artificial water source was estimated by analyzing hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of stem water. The predawn and midday xylem water potentials and foliar carbon isotope discrimination were measured to estimate changes in water status and water-use efficiency. At. canescens and Ch. nauseosus showed little if any uptake of summer rains in either July or September. The predawn and midday xylem water potentials for control and treatment plants of these two species were not significantly different from each other. For A. filifolia and V. stylosa, up to 50% of xylem water was from the simulated summer rain, but the predawn and midday xylem water potentials were not significantly affected by the additional summer moisture input. In contrast, C. ramosissima showed significant uptake of the simulated summer rain (〉50% of xylem water was from the artificial summer rain) and an increase in both predawn and midday water potentials. The percent uptake of simulated summer rain was greater when those rains were applied in September than in July, implying that high soil temperature in midsummer may in some way inhibit water uptake. Foliar carbon isotope discrimination increased significantly in the three shrubs taking up simulated summer rain, but pre-treatment differences in the absolute discrimination values were maintained among species. The ecological implications of our results are discussed in terms of the dynamics of this desert community in response to changes in the frequency and dependability of summer rains that might be associated with a northward shift in the Arizona monsoon boundary.
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  • 37
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    Biology and fertility of soils 27 (1998), S. 230-235 
    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Keywords: Key words Carbon dioxide ; Carbon sequestration ; Climate change ; Greenhouse gases ; Mitigation options
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract  The International Panel on Climate Change distinguished three main options for the mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations by the agricultural sector: (1) reduction of agriculture-related emissions, (2) creation and strengthening of C sinks in the soil, and (3) production of biofuels to replace fossil fuels. Options for sustained sequestration of C in the soil through adapted management of land resources are reviewed in the context of the ongoing discussion on the need to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Enhanced sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in the soil, ultimately as stable humus, may well prove a more lasting solution than (temporarily) sequestering CO2 in the standing biomass through reforestation and afforestation. Such actions will also help to reverse processes of land degradation, thus contributing to sustained food productivity and security for the people in the regions concerned.
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  • 38
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    Biology and fertility of soils 27 (1998), S. 263-266 
    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Keywords: Key words Soil organic matter ; Climate change ; Modelling ; Sensitivity analysis ; Feedback
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract  The nonlinear model of the carbon cycle in soils (NAMSOM) was used to analyze the sensitivity of soil organic matter levels to variations in carbon turnover parameters. We were able to predict the sensitivity of soil organic matter levels to variations of climate-dependent carbon turnover parameters, which allowed us to compare the sensitivity of soil organic matter levels to net primary productivity of plant communities and plant debris decomposition rate constants across the range of soils in the European part of Russia. The results indicate that meadow steppes show the lowest sensitivity to variations of these parameters. In passing from meadow steppes to the northern taiga and to semideserts, the sensitivity increases. In general, soil organic matter levels of boreal forest ecosystems are about 2–3 times more sensitive to input and decomposition of plant debris than to decomposition of humus. In subboreal grassland ecosystems the sensitivity to humus decomposition increases and becomes closer to the degree of sensitivity shown by soil organic matter levels to variations of productivity and decomposition of plant debris. The proposed method may be useful for predicting the response of ecosystems to climatic change.
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  • 39
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    Biology and fertility of soils 19 (1995), S. 109-114 
    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Keywords: Aporrectodea caliginosa ; Soil microflora C mineralization ; Beech litter ; Temperature ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract A microcosm was used to study the effect of the endogeic earthworm Aporrectodea caliginosa (Savigny) on the use of C by microorganisms in a calcareous beech forest soil and its dependence on temperature (5–25%C). Inclusion of 14C-labelled beech leaf litter made it possible to differentiate between C use by litter-colonizing microflora and by autochthonous soil microflora. The effect of temperature on the soil microbial biomass 12C was confined to a significant increase at 15 and 20°C. The size of the 14C-labelled microbial biomass, in contrast, was positively correlated with temperature. The 12C mineralization increased exponentially with temperature. The relationship between 14C mineralization and temperature, in contrast, followed a logistic curve. Significant main effects of A. caliginosa were confined to 12C mineralization, reflecting an increase in 12CO2−C production in the earthworm treatments. The earthworm effects on 12CO2−C production and on 14C incorporation of the microflora were not linear. The effect of A. caliginosa on 12CO2−C production was most pronouned at intermediate temperatures. It is concluded that temperature alterations affect the microbial use of different C sources in different ways and that the temperature effects can be significantly modified by endogeic earthworms.
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  • 40
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    Biology and fertility of soils 29 (1999), S. 207-217 
    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Keywords: Key words Acari ; Climate change ; Grassland soils ; Soil microarthropods ; Soil water content
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract  Changes in precipitation and soil water availability predicted to accompany global climate change would impact grasslands, where many ecosystem processes are influenced by water availability. Soil biota, including microarthropods, also are affected by soil water content, although little is known about how climate change might affect their abundance and distribution. The goal of this study was to examine soil microarthropod responses to altered soil water availability in tallgrass prairie ecosystems. Two separate experiments were done. The first utilized control and irrigated plots along a topographic gradient to examine the effects of soil water content on microarthropod densities. Microarthropods, mainly Acari, were significantly less abundant in irrigated plots and were generally less abundant at the wetter lowland sites. The second study utilized reciprocal core transplants across an east-west regional precipitation gradient. Large, intact cores were transplanted between a more mesic tallgrass site (Konza Prairie) and a more arid mixed-grass site (Hays) to determine the effects of different soil water regimes on microarthropod abundance and vertical distribution. Data from non-transplanted cores indicated greater total microarthropod densities at the drier Hays site, relative to the wetter Konza Prairie site. Data from the transplanted cores indicated significant effects of location on Acari densities in cores originating from Hays, with higher densities in cores remaining at Hays, relative to those transplanted to Konza. Acari densities in cores originating from Konza were not affected by location; however, oribatid mite densities generally were greater in cores remaining at Konza Prairie. These results confirm the importance of soil water content in affecting microarthropod densities and distributions in grasslands, and suggest complex, non-linear responses to changes in water availability.
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  • 41
    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Keywords: Key words Wetland ; Peat ; Enzyme ; Climate change ; Increased rainfall
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract  Microbial enzyme activities were followed during a field-based experimental simulation of the effects of higher rainfall in a Welsh peatland. The treatment did not significantly affect the activities of the carbon cycling enzymes, β-glucosidase, esterase or xylosidase. In contrast, the activity of the enzyme sulphatase decreased by 44% (P〈0.001) in response to the wetter conditions. The manipulation suggests that should climate change cause conditions to become wetter in peatlands, then (with the exception of sulphatase) current levels of wetness may be sufficient to limit decomposition processes, and thus any further increase in wetness is unlikely to induce a further decrease in decomposition rates. Correlations were found between the esterase activity and both nitrous oxide flux (r=–0.44, P〈0.05), and methane release (r=0.53, P〈0.01). Likewise, there was a correlation between xylosidase activity and both carbon dioxide emission (r=0.52, P〈0.01) and aluminium concentration (r=0.58, P〈0.01). All of the enzymes correlated positively with dissolved organic carbon (range r=0.53, P〈0.01 sulphatase to r=0.61, P〈0.001 glucosidase). Together, the correlations lend support to recent hypotheses suggesting that enzymes exert an influence over wetland biogeochemical properties.
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  • 42
    ISSN: 0931-1890
    Keywords: Key words Aleppo pine ; Climate change ; Water stress ; Cavitation ; Transpiration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract  The present study was carried out to elucidate the response mechanisms of 50-year-old Pinus halepensis Mill. trees to a long-term and severe drought. The amount of water available to trees was artificially restricted for 12 months by covering the soil with a plastic roof. Over the short term a direct and rapid impact of drought was evident on the water relations and gas exchanges of trees: as the soil dried out in the Spring, there was a concurrent decrease of predawn water potential; transpiration was strongly reduced by stomatal closure. Seasonal changes in the water volume fractions of twig and stem xylem were observed and interpreted as the result of cavitation and refilling in the xylem. When droughted trees recovered to a more favourable water status, refilling of embolized xylem was observed; twig predawn water potentials were still negative in the period when the embolism was reversed in the twig xylem. A few months after the removal of the covering, no differences in whole plant hydraulic resistance were observed between droughted and control trees. Needle and shoot elongation and stem radial growth were considerably reduced in droughted trees; no strategy of trees to allocate carbon preferentially to the stem conducting tissues was apparent throughout the experiment. An after-effect of the drought on growth was observed.
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  • 43
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    International journal of biometeorology 42 (1999), S. 119-123 
    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Key words Phenology ; Climate change ; Time series
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  This study analyzes a long-term phenological time series for the impact assessment of climate changes on Estonian nature and for the methodological study of the possible limitations of using phenological time series for climate trend analyses. These limiting factors can influence the results of studies more than the real impact of climate changes, which may have a much smaller numeric value. The 132-year series of the arrival of the skylark (Alauda arvensis) and the white wagtail (Motacilla alba), the 78-year series of the blossoming of the wood anemone (Anemone nemorosa), the bird cherry (Padus racemosa), apple trees (Malus domestica) and lilacs (Syringa vulgaris), and the 44-year series of the spawning of pike (Esox lucius) and bream (Abramis brama) were studied at three selected observation points in Estonia. The study of the phenological time series shows that Estonian springs have, on the basis of the database, advanced 8 days on average over the last 80-year period; the last 40-year period has warmed even faster.
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  • 44
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    International journal of biometeorology 38 (1995), S. 141-147 
    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Climate change ; Winter mortality ; Temperature
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.
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  • 45
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    International journal of biometeorology 41 (1998), S. 155-160 
    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Key words Phenology ; Robinia pseudoacacia L. ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  Intense research is being carried out on climate variability and change and the estimation and detection of anthropogenic effects. In addition to statistical methods, the use of plants, as biological indicators is becoming more popular as they are sensitive to environmental conditions. In this article we compare maps of the flowering dates of the locust tree (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) for three different time intervals between 1851 and 1994. The maps revealed noticeable shifts of dates, of approximately 3–8 days, towards earlier flowering. This change is related to the average temperature of spring (15 March–15 May), via a simple statistical model that is accurate enough to be able to quantify phenological changes and to calculate the corresponding warming. The model developed can estimate spring mean temperature using phenological data from R. pseudoacacia L. with an accuracy of 0.2° C. Estimates of mean temperature based on phenological changes are compared to climatic series. This comparison emphasizes the possibility of using R. pseudoacacia. L. as a bio-indicator. Estimates of temperature changes are also given.
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  • 46
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    International journal of biometeorology 39 (1995), S. 5-12 
    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Equatorial tropical bioclimates ; Southwest Pacific ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The current bioclimates of equatorial Western and tropical South Pacific have been assessed, using the concepts of effective temperature and relative strain as a basis for evaluating likely changes in human comfort regimes as a consequence of global warming. Current bioclimates may be considered marginally stressful for indigenous populations. Global warming will result in changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of physioclimatically stressful conditions.
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  • 47
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    International journal of biometeorology 42 (1999), S. 146-152 
    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Key words Landscape ecology ; Area-wide management ; Modelling ; Interpolation ; Kriging ; Regression ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  We simulated male gypsy moth flight phenology for the location of 1371 weather stations east of 100° W longitude and north of 35° N latitude in North America. The output of these simulations, based on average weather conditions from 1961 to 1990, was submitted to two map-interpolation methods: multiple regression and universal kriging. Multiple regression was found to be as accurate as universal kriging and demands less computing power. A map of the date of peak male gypsy moth flight was generated by universal kriging. This map itself constitutes a useful pest-management planning tool; in addition, the map delineates the potential range of the gypsy moth based on its seasonality at the northern edge of its current distribution in eastern North America. The simulation and map-interpolation methods described in this paper thus constitute an interesting approach to the study and monitoring of the ecological impacts of climate change and shifts in land-use patterns at the sub-continental level.
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  • 48
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    Oecologia 107 (1996), S. 141-150 
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Antarctica ; Climate change ; Propagule banks ; Community development ; Biogeochemical feedback
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract This paper explores the biological consequences of climate change by integrating the results of a tripartite investigation involving fumarole, field manipulation and laboratory incubation experiments. The geographical region for this research is the maritime Antarctic. Under contemporary climate conditions, the lithosols in this region support only a sparse cryptogamic flora of limited taxonomic diversity and low structural complexity. However, the existence in geothermal areas of temperate species (e.g. Campylopus introflexus, Marchantia polymorpha, Philonotis acicularis) growing outside their normal biogeographical range suggests that elevated temperature and humidity may alter the trajectory of community development towards Magellanic or Patagonian composition. Productivity is also likely to increase, as indicated by significantly greater vegetative biomass recorded beneath climate-ameliorating soil covers than in controls. Barren fellfield soil samples transplanted to the laboratory and incubated at temperatures of 2–25°C show rapid development of moss, algae and lichen propagules in the range 15–25°C. A variety of species develop that have not been recorded in the field. The presence of exotic taxa indicates the existence of a dormant propagule bank in maritime Antarctic soils and suggests that no significant delay is likely to occur between the onset of climate warming and community development: instead, rapid establishment of those species favoured by the new climate conditions will yield a distinct founder effect, with increasing above- and below-ground biomass stimulating biogeochemical cycling. It is argued that the combined results of this synthesis identify generic responses to climate change arising from the importance at high latitudes of low temperature and water availability as limiting factors: subject to other growth resources being non-limiting, a more consistent stimulatory response to climate change may be expected than in temperate or tropical regions. The tripartite approach, encompassing field, microcosm and laboratory methodologies, renders the conclusions more robust than any single study considered in isolation.
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  • 49
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key wordsBetula ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; heat stress ; Freezing stress
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Despite predictions that both atmospheric CO2 concentrations and air temperature will rise together, very limited data are currently available to assess the possible interactive effects of these two global change factors on temperate forest tree species. Using yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis) as a model species, we studied how elevated CO2 (800 vs. 400 μl l−1) influences seedling growth and physiological responses to a 5°C increase in summer air temperatures (31/26 vs. 26/21°C day/night), and how both elevated CO2 and air temperature during the growing season influence seedling ability to survive freezing stress during the winter dormant season. Our results show that while increased temperature decreases seedling growth, temperature-induced growth reductions are significantly lower at elevated CO2 concentrations (43% vs. 73%). The amelioration of high-temperature stress was related to CO2-induced reductions in both whole-shoot dark respiration and transpiration. Our results also show that increased summer air temperature, and to a lesser degree CO2 concentration, make dormant winter buds less susceptible to freezing stress. We show the relevance of these results to models used to predict how climate change will influence future forest species distribution and productivity, without considering the direct or interactive effects of CO2.
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  • 50
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key words Photosynthesis ; C4 ; Climate change ; CO2 ; Grassland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract C4 photosynthetic physiologies exhibit fundamentally different responses to temperature and atmospheric CO2 partial pressures (pCO2) compared to the evolutionarily more primitive C3 type. All else being equal, C4 plants tend to be favored over C3 plants in warm humid climates and, conversely, C3 plants tend to be favored over C4 plants in cool climates. Empirical observations supported by a photosynthesis model predict the existence of a climatological crossover temperature above which C4 species have a carbon gain advantage and below which C3 species are favored. Model calculations and analysis of current plant distribution suggest that this pCO2-dependent crossover temperature is approximated by a mean temperature of 22°C for the warmest month at the current pCO2 (35 Pa). In addition to favorable temperatures, C4 plants require sufficient precipitation during the warm growing season. C4 plants which are predominantly graminoids of short stature can be competitively excluded by trees (nearly all C3 plants) – regardless of the photosynthetic superiority of the C4 pathway – in regions otherwise favorable for C4. To construct global maps of the distribution of C4 grasses for current, past and future climate scenarios, we make use of climatological data sets which provide estimates of the mean monthly temperature to classify the globe into areas which should favor C4 photosynthesis during at least 1 month of the year. This area is further screened by excluding areas where precipitation is 〈25 mm per month during the warm season and by selecting areas classified as grasslands (i.e., excluding areas dominated by woody vegetation) according to a global vegetation map. Using this approach, grasslands of the world are designated as C3, C4, and mixed under current climate and pCO2. Published floristic studies were used to test the accuracy of these predictions in many regions of the world, and agreement with observations was generally good. We then make use of this protocol to examine changes in the global abundance of C4 grasses in the past and the future using plausible estimates for the climates and pCO2. When pCO2 is lowered to pre-industrial levels, C4 grasses expanded their range into large areas now classified as C3 grasslands, especially in North America and Eurasia. During the last glacial maximum (∼18 ka BP) when the climate was cooler and pCO2 was about 20 Pa, our analysis predicts substantial expansion of C4 vegetation – particularly in Asia, despite cooler temperatures. Continued use of fossil fuels is expected to result in double the current pCO2 by sometime in the next century, with some associated climate warming. Our analysis predicts a substantial reduction in the area of C4 grasses under these conditions. These reductions from the past and into the future are based on greater stimulation of C3 photosynthetic efficiency by higher pCO2 than inhibition by higher temperatures. The predictions are testable through large-scale controlled growth studies and analysis of stable isotopes and other data from regions where large changes are predicted to have occurred.
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  • 51
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Alpine grassland ; Climate change ; RAPD ; Population genetic structure ; Tussock sedge
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    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Carex curvula is a very slow-growing rhizomatous sedge that forms extensive stands in the European an alpine belt. The recruitment of sexual progeny is extremely rare and propagation occurs predominantly through clonal growth. The randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique was used to analyse clonal structure in a small patch (2.0x0.4 m sampling transect plus some additional samples) of a high-alpine population of the species. Amplification of the DNA of 116 tiller samples from the patch with eight ten-base primers yielded a total of 95 bands, of which 73 were polymorphic. Based on the RAPD amplification profiles a total of 15 multilocus genotypes (putative clones) were identified. Due to the high number of polymorphic loci the number of genetic markers delineating individual clones was high (range: 16–39 markers) which suggests that our estimates of clonal diversity are precise. More than half of the sampled tillers were identified as belonging to a single clone which formed a relatively homogeneous disc intermingling with other clones only at its margin. Based on the maximum diameter of this large clone of more than 7000 tillers and estimates of annual expansion growth of rhizomes (0.4 mm year-1), the age of the clone was calculated to be around 2000 years. This demonstrates that clones of C. curvula may persist on a single spot over long periods with quite diverse alpine climates ranging from rather mild periods in the Middle Ages to cool periods during the so called “little ice age” in the last century. Our results suggest caution with plant migration scenarios based on shifting isotherms where late-successional clonal species, which dominate the alpine vegetation all over the world, are concerned.
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  • 52
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Chlorophyll fluorescence ; Climate change ; Electrolyte leakage ; Rocky Mountains ; Sagebrush
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Leaf tolerance to high temperatures, as determined by electrolyte leakage and chlorophyll a fluorescence, was compared for Artemisia tridentata (Asteraceae), a widespread shrub of the Great Basin, Colorado Plateau, and western slope of the Rocky Mountains, and Potentilla gracilis (Rosaceae), a herbaceous forb common to high-elevation meadows of the western United States. Species-specific and treatment-specific differences in leaf temperature, high-temperature tolerance and chlorophyll a fluorescence from photosystem II were compared, to test the hypothesis that plants at ecosystem borders will exhibit species-specific responses to climate change. Measurements were made for plants exposed to a climate change warming manipulation on a major ecosystem border at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Colorado, United States, in July and August 1995. In July, daily maximal leaf temperatures were significantly higher for P. gracilis than for A. tridentata. Leaf temperatures were slightly lower in August than July for leaves of both species, on control and heated plots, despite the fact that daily maximum air temperatures were not significantly different for the two months. High-temperature tolerance was determined for leaves treated for 1 h at temperatures ranging from 15°C to 65°C. LT50 was approximately 46°C for both species on control plots, but was 43°C for leaves of both species from heated plots, contrary to the predictions of the hypothesis. No shift in LT50 (acclimation) was apparent between July and August. Changes in chlorophyll a fluorescence from photosystem II (F V /F M ) were used to characterize the photosynthetic response to high temperatures. For both A. tridentata and P. gracilis in July, F V /F M was about 0.7, but decreased for temperatures above 40°C. The results suggest that plant responses to global warming at ecosystem borders may be influenced by factors other than leaf-level physiological tolerance to elevated temperatures.
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  • 53
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Plant/herbivore interactions ; Insect CO2 sense ; Chemical ecology ; CO2 microclimate ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The interaction between the moth, Cactoblastis cactorum, and the cactus, Opuntia stricta, is used as a model to examine the question of whether the CO2 sense of a herbivorous insect can detect the CO2 gradients associated with a plant's metabolic activity. Both the anatomical and the electrophysiological characteristics of CO2-sensitive receptor neurons in C. cactorum indicate an adaptation to the detection of small fluctuations around the atmospheric background. Evidence is provided that further rises in background will impair the function of the sensory organ. In the habitat of the plant, during the diurnal window of the moth's activity, two types of CO2 gradients occur that are detectable by the moth's sensors. The first gradient, associated with soil respiration, is vertical and extends from the soil surface to an altitude of approximately 1 m. Its magnitude is well above the detectability limit of the sensors. The notion that this gradient provides, to a flying insect, a cue for the maintenance of a flight altitude favourable for host detection is supported by field observations of behaviour. The second gradient, associated with CO2 fixation by the plant, extends from the surfaces of photosynthetic organs (cladodes) over a boundary layer distance of approximately 5 mm. Again, its magnitude is well above the detectability limit. The notion that this gradient provides, to a walking insect, a cue to the physiological condition of the plant is supported by the observation that females of C. cactorum, prior to oviposition, actively probe the plant surface with their CO2 sensors. In a simulation of probing, pronounced responses of the sensors to the CO2-fixing capacity of O. stricta are observed. We propose that by probing the boundary layer, females of C. cactorum can detect the healthiest, most active O. stricta cladodes, accounting for earlier observations that the most vigorous plants attract the greatest density of egg sticks.
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  • 54
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    Oecologia 117 (1998), S. 469-475 
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key words Common toad ; Winter temperatures ; Daylength ; Breeding migration ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract A 19-year study of a common toad population in south Dorset, UK, was carried out between 1980 and 1998. The daily arrival of sexually mature male and female toads at a breeding pond was recorded each year. The timing of the main arrival of toads at the breeding pond was highly correlated with the mean daily temperatures over the 40 days immediately preceding the main arrival. When the temperatures were higher than average, breeding occurred significantly earlier in the year than if they were either average or lower than average. During the study, the toad breeding seasons were early (2–13 February) in 5 years (1989, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1998), late (16–23 March) in 2 years (1986, 1996) and average (25 February–8 March) during the remaining 12 years. Evidence was found suggesting that common toads have a daylength threshold of about 9 h, below which the migration to the breeding pond does not occur. Evidence was also found indicating that common toads in southern England have a threshold temperature for activity of about 6°C and that the onset of breeding activity is highly correlated with the number of days during the 40 days prior to the main arrival at the breeding pond that were at or above this temperature. Predicting the start of the main breeding migration to a pond in any year may be possible by comparing the pattern of the 40-day running mean daily temperatures from 21 December the preceding year with those from previous years when the start of breeding activity is known. Although all five of the earliest recorded toad breeding years occurred during the last 10 years, and were associated with the occurrence of particularly mild winters, a significant trend towards earlier breeding in recent years compared with previous years was not found.
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  • 55
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key words Antarctica ; Climate change ; Colobanthus quitensis ; Deschampsia antarctica ; Ozone depletion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Along the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula springtime ozone depletion events can lead to a two-fold increase in biologically effective UV-B radiation (UV-BBE) and summer air temperatures have risen ≈1.5°C during the past 50 years. We manipulated levels of UV radiation and temperature around Colobanthus quitensis (a cushion-forming plant, Caryophyllaceae) and Deschampsia antarctica (a tussock grass) along the Peninsula near Palmer Station for two field seasons. Ambient levels of UV were manipulated by placing filters that either transmitted UV (filter control), absorbed UV-B (reducing diurnal levels of UV-BBE by about 82%), or absorbed both UV-B and UV-A (reducing UV-BBE and UV-ABE by about 88 and 78%, respectively) on frames over naturally growing plants from November to March. Half the filters of each material completely surrounded the frames and raised diurnal and diel air temperatures around plants by an average of 2.3°C and 1.3°C, respectively. Reducing UV or warming had no effect on leaf concentrations of soluble UV-B absorbing compounds, UV-B absorbing surface waxes or chlorophylls. Warming had few effects on growth of either species over the first season. However, over the second field season warming improved growth of C. quitensis, leading to a 50% increase in leaf production (P 〈 0.10), a 26% increase in shoot production, and a 6% increase in foliar cover. In contrast, warming reduced growth of D. antarctica, leading to a 20% decline in leaf length, a 17% decline in leaf production (P 〈 0.10), and a 5% decline in foliar cover. Warming improved sexual reproduction in both species, primarily through faster development of reproductive structures and greater production of heavier seeds. Over the second field season, the percentage of reproductive structures that had reached the most developed (seed) stage in C. quitensis and D. antarctica was 20% and 15% higher, respectively, under warming. Capsules of C. quitensis produced 45% more seeds under warming and these seeds were 11% heavier. Growth of D. antarctica was improved when UV was reduced and these effects appeared to be cumulative over field seasons. Over the second season, tillers produced 55% more leaves and these leaves were 32% longer when UV-B was reduced. Tillers produced 137% more leaves that were 67% longer when both UV-B and UV-A were reduced. The effects of UV reduction were not as pronounced on C. quitensis, although over the second season cushions tended to be 17% larger and produce 21% more branches when UV-B was reduced, and tended to be 27% larger and produce 38% more branches when both UV-B and UV-A were reduced (P 〈 0.10). Few interactions were found between UV reduction and warming, although in the absence of warming, reducing UV led to slower development of reproductive structures in both species. The effects of warming and UV reduction were species specific and were often cumulative over the two field seasons, emphasizing the importance of long-term field manipulations in predicting the impacts of climate change.
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  • 56
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Dryas octopetala ; L. ssp. octopetala ; Clonal growth ; Reproductive output
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Opportunities exist in high Arctic polar semidesert communities for colonisation of unvegetated ground by long-lived clonal plants such as Dryas octopetala. This can be achieved by lateral spread of vegetative ramets, or by sexual reproduction and seedling recruitment. The objectives of this study were (1) to determine whether these two means of proliferation show differential sensitivity to contrasting components of the abiotic environment (temperature, soil nutrient and water availability) and (2) to evaluate the potential for D. octopetala to respond to climate change by an increase in cover and biomass in polar semi-desert communities. Factorial environmental manipulations of growing season temperature, soil nutrient and water status were conducted over 3 years at a polar semi-desert community in Svalbard, Norway (78°56.12′N, 11°50.4′E) and both clonal and sexual reproductive performance, together with instantaneous net photosynthesis (Pn), were recorded during the third season (1993). D. octopetala capitalised rapidly on an amelioration in the availability of inorganic nutrients (N, P and K) by an expansion in leaf area and biomass supported by increased Pn per unit leaf weight, and by apparent luxury uptake of nutrients (particularly P). Several facets of sexual reproductive development and seed viability were markedly improved by elevated temperatures or soil nutrient availability. Thus although D. octopetala is a long-lived clonal plant, with many traits characteristic of stress resistance syndrome, it showed considerable phenotypic plasticity in response to environmental manipulations. The results support the hypothesis that clonal growth confers survival potential during unfavourable years, together with the ability to capitalise on nutrient flushes and recycle nutrients internally. Continued investment in sexual reproduction ensures that seed setting is successful during favourable years, even if these occur infrequently. Cimate warming in the high Arctic could thus result in changes in the cover, biomass and the relative significance of clonal versus sexual proliferation of D. octopetala (and thus the genetic diversity of the population) but the long-term responses will probably be constrained by lack of available nutrients.
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  • 57
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Tussock tundra ; Net CO2 balance ; Eriophorum vaginatum ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract We examined the importance of temperature (7°C or 15°C) and soil moisture regime (saturated or field capacity) on the carbon (C) balance of arctic tussock tundra microcosms (intact blocks of soil and vegetation) in growth chambers over an 81-day simulated growing season. We measured gaseous CO2 exchanges, methane (CH4) emissions, and dissolved C losses on intact blocks of tussock (Eriophorum vaginatum) and intertussock (moss-dominated). We hypothesized that under increased temperature and/or enhanced drainage, C losses from ecosystem respiration (CO2 respired by plants and heterotrophs) would exceed gains from gross photosynthesis causing tussock tundra to become a net source of C to the atmosphere. The field capacity moisture regime caused a decrease in net CO2 storage (NEP) in tussock tundra micrososms. This resulted from a stimulation of ecosystem respiration (probably mostly microbial) with enhanced drainage, rather than a decrease in gross photosynthesis. Elevated temperature alone had no effect on NEP because CO2 losses from increased ecosystem respiration at elevated temperature were compensated by increased CO2 uptake (gross photosynthesis). Although CO2 losses from ecosystem respiration were primarily limited by drainage, CH4 emissions, in contrast, were dependent on temperature. Furthermore, substantial dissolved C losses, especially organic C, and important microhabitat differences must be considered in estimating C balance for the tussock tundra system. As much as ∼ 20% of total C fixed in photosynthesis was lost as dissolved organic C. Tussocks stored ∼ 2x more C and emitted 5x more methane than intertussocks. In spite of the limitations of this microcosm experiment, this study has further elucidated the critical role of soil moisture regime and dissolved C losses in regulating net C balance of arctic tussock tundra.
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    Oecologia 104 (1995), S. 272-279 
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Climate change ; Rock bass ; Smallmouth bass ; Dendroehronology ; Ecosystem
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Significant correlations were found among the annual growth increments of stream fish, trees, and climate variables in the Ozark region of the United States. The variation in annual growth increments of rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris) from the Jacks Fork River was significantly correlated over 22 years with the ring width of four tree species: white oak (Quercus alba), post oak (Quercus stellata), shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana). Rock bass growth and tree growth were both significantly correlated with July rainfall and stream discharge. Variations in annual growth of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) from four streams were significantly correlated over 29 years (1939–1968) with mean May maximum air temperature but not with tree growth. The magnitude and significance of correlations among growth increments from fish and trees imply that conditions such as topography, stream gradient, organism age, and the distribution of a population relative to its geographic range can influence the climatic response of an organism. The timing and intensity of climatic variables may produce different responses among closely related species.
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    Oecologia 120 (1999), S. 92-101 
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key wordsEpirrita autumnata ; Lepidoptera: Geometridae ; Betula pubescens ssp. czrepanovii ; Insect outbreaks ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract We studied topographical and year-to-year variation in the performance (pupal weights, survival) and larval parasitism of Epirrita autumnata larvae feeding on mountain birch in northernmost Finland in 1993–1996. We found differences in both food plant quality and parasitism between sites ranging from 80 m to 320 m above sea level. Variation in food plant quality had particularly marked effects on larval survival. The advanced phenology of the birches in relation to the start of the larval period reduced pupal weights. Parasitism rates were different between years and between sites. The clearest site differences were in the proportions of different parasitoid species: Eulophus larvarum was most abundant at the lowest-altitude sites, and Cotesia jucunda at the highest. Differences in the performance of E. autumnata were related to temperature conditions: at higher temperatures, survival and the egg production index were lower, and larval parasitism was higher than at lower temperatures. The higher parasitism at higher temperatures was probably due to greater parasitoid activity during warmer days. In the comparison of different sources of spatial and annual variation in the performance of E. autumnata, the most important factor appeared to be egg mortality related to minimum winter temperature, followed by parasitism and, finally, the variation in food plant quality. If, as predicted, the climate gradually warms up, the effects of warmer summers on the outbreaks of E. autumnata suggest a decrease in outbreak intensity.
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    Environmental management 19 (1995), S. 197-224 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Climate change ; Climate models ; Ecosystems ; Greenhouse effect ; Land surface processes ; Uncertainty ; Validation ; Variability ; Water resources
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO2. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO2 levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.
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    Environmental management 20 (1996), S. S27 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Heat production ; Electricity production ; CO2 emission reduction ; Mitigation measures ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987–1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO2 emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.
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    Environmental management 19 (1995), S. 641-648 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Endangered species ; Endangered Species Act of 1973 ; Natural resource policy ; Climate change ; Policy orientation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Anthropogenic climate climate change presents a unique challenge for endangered species policy and an opportunity for policy makers to develop a more predictive and robust approach to preserving the nation's biological resources. Biological and ecological reactions to shifting climate conditions and the potential feedbacks and synergistic effects of such changes may threaten the well-being of many species, particularly of those already in jeopardy of extinction. The United States Endangered Species Act of 1973 will fail to keep pace with increasing numbers of species needing protection as long as it remains focused on protecting species individually. The actmust not be abandoned, however; it holds tremendous promise for preserving biological diversity through a more proactive, anticipatory perspective. The current Endangered Species Act should be reinforced and improved by better integration of scientific expertise into habitat and community preservation listing decisions and recovery plan devlopment. Given the uncertainties surrounding long-term environmental consequences of human activities and resource use, a longer-term perspective must be integrated into all efforts to protect our biotic resources.
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    Environmental management 20 (1996), S. 159-173 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Coastal zone management ; Environmental damage valuation ; Climate change ; Sea-level rise
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.
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  • 64
    ISSN: 1432-2285
    Keywords: Alps ; Altitude ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Dendrochronology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract It has been suggested many times that elevated atmospheric CO2 levels should stimulate radial increment of stem growth. However, interpretation of dendrochronologies with respect to a CO2 signal is a difficult task, since a multitude of environmental and tree factors influence the growth of stems. Here we provide a data set from subalpine stone pine which covers the period from 1750 to 1988, and from which growth rings of the 80- to 90-year age class were analysed. The most common climatological effects are taken into consideration. We found a steady and significant increase of mean ring width for the considered age class from approximately 1 mm per year in the middle of the last century to about 1.4 mm per year at present. Selected periods of equal mean summer temperatures in the last century and in more recent decades still yield a mean stimulation of about 25% for which atmospheric CO2 enrichment appears to be the most plausible explanation. The recent dramatic increase of atmospheric N-deposition could confound this interpretation, but chronologies of the last 2 decades during which wet and dry deposition of N-compounds showed the most dramatic increase exhibit no deviation from the long term trend. In contrast to the so far conflicting evidence of tree-ring responses to atmospheric changes the clear signal obtained here may be explained as follows: (1) stone pine produces little late season wood and moisture is never a limiting factor (particularly not in the early season); (2) comparatively good climatic records permitted the selection of thermally comparable periods; (3) trees grew under little spatial competition, (4) cores were collected well below the upper altitudinal range-limit of stone pine, leaving enough physiological leeway under episodic climatic stress, but (5) trees grew at altitudes high enough so that the reduction of the partial pressure of CO2 could be expected to cause CO2 to become relatively more limiting than at low elevations.
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    Plant ecology 121 (1995), S. 53-65 
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Biogeochemistry ; Climate change ; Ecosystem ; IGBP ; Land use ; Vegetation dynamics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The International Geosphere-Biosphere Program has proposed a set of large-scale terrestrial transects to study the effects of changes in climate, land use, and atmospheric composition (“global change”) on biogeochemistry, surface-atmosphere exchange, and vegetation dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The transects (≈ 1000 km) will be located along existing environmental and land use intensity gradients that span transitions between biomes in regions likely to be widely affected by forcing from components of global change or where the impacts of global change are likely to feed back to affect atmospheric, climatic, or hydrologic systems. Experimental studies on the transects will examine short-term changes in ecosystem function and biosphere-atmosphere interaction in response to variation in primary controlling variables. A hierarchy of modeling approaches will develop predictions of long-term changes in biome boundaries and vegetation distribution. The proposed initial set of IGBP terrestrial transects are located in four key regions: (1) humid tropical forests undergoing land use change, (2) high latitudes including the transition from boreal forest to tundra, (3) semi-arid tropical regions including transitions from dry forest to shrublands and savannas, and (4) mid latitude semi-arid regions encompassing transitions from shrubland or grassland to forests. We discuss here the rationale and general research design of transect studies proposed for each of these priority regions.
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  • 66
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Climate change ; Life-history traits ; Plant succession ; Seedling recruitment ; Warming ; Water relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract This study investigates the effects of field manipulations of local climate to determine the potential impact of climate change on plant community dynamics in a calcareous grassland. The experimental site is located in a grassland at the Wytham estate, Oxfordshire, UK. The one hectare study area is within a 10 ha abandoned arable field on Jurassic corallian limestone. Two climate change scenarios were used: warmer winters with increased summer rainfall and warmer winters with summer drought. Plant cover and species richness were significantly increased in plots receiving supplemented summer rainfall, while the amount of litter was significantly reduced. Litter formation was significantly increased by winter warming and drought. The responses of the plant community to the climate manipulations were related to the life-history attributes of the dominant species. Seedling recruitment was limited by microsite availability, which also varied in the different climate manipulations. The results are discussed in terms of successional dynamics. They suggest that warmer winters may delay succession, as gap formation in the sward will provide sites for colonisation of annuals, thereby enabling their persistence in the sward. Under wetter conditions during summer, perennial grasses tend to close the sward, thereby inhibiting the establishment of later successional species.
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    Plant ecology 138 (1998), S. 137-147 
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Climate change ; Dendrochronology ; Forest tundra ; Picea mariana ; Stem analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Most treeline populations in northeastern Canada are monospecific stands of black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.), a hardy, cold-tolerant species able to withstand harsh climatic conditions under different growth forms. In the forest tundra, black spruce thrives in protected areas and exhibits a normal arborescent growth form, but in exposed sites, upright stems are damaged above the snowpack by snow abrasion and wind. In this study, the development of damaged growth forms was examined in a moderately exposed habitat. Five developmental stages were identified and described using detailed stem analysis of 13 spruce trees. Four different types of damaged growth forms were identified according to variations in supra-nival (above snow) stem height and number. At the site scale, the age structure of supra-nival shoots, based on a larger sample of 256 stems, was unimodal, suggesting a synchronous development of the spruce stand in which 46% of the shoots were initiated during the 1960s and 1970s. Subfossil trunks on the ground were all depressed trees, indicating that the former vegetation was a krummholz, not a forest. This indicates the recent development of the small-tree stand above the snowpack, probably triggered by recent milder conditions associated with snowier winters in the last decades.
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    Plant ecology 135 (1998), S. 9-12 
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Climate change ; Phenology ; Regrowth ; Vaccinium ; Winter herbivory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The ability of Vaccinium myrtillus L. to recover from simulated winter herbivory has been investigated on different plants which had been exposed to three elevated temperatures (5 °C, 10 °C or 20 °C) for four weeks in a greenhouse environment. After herbivory, number and length of new aerial shoots and number of leaves/shoot increased faster in plants kept at 5 °C and 10 °C than in those kept at 20 °C. In the following autumn, however, only the shoot number differed between treatments, being greatest in plants of treatments at 5 °C and 10 °C and lowest at 20 °C and the outdoor control. Apparently the plants kept at 20 °C had already used their resources for growth before herbivory simulation, which reduced their recovery ability thereafter. In addition, the growing season was too short for the control plants to produce as many new shoots as the treatments. The results show that the recovery of V. myrtillus from winter herbivory is rapid if it occurs before growth has started. Hence the earlier onset of spring as a consequence of climate warming may not be fatal for the plant, unless the temperature increase triggers growth to start many months earlier than normal.
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    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 6 (1997), S. 133-152 
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Palynology ; Late-glacial ; Holocene ; Climate change ; Scotland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract The Lomond Hills of Fife, an isolated upland area rising to over 500 m, provide an opportunity to investigate the effect of altitude on vegetation and climate in an area otherwise dominated by lower-lying land. The West Lomond site contains sediments of the Devensian Late-glacial period; they reveal a well-defined sequence of Bolling-Older Dryas-Allerod-Younger Dryas events, commencing ca. 12 190 radiocarbon years B.P. and a probable Amphi-Atlantic Oscillation between ca. 11 040 and 10 800 B.P. The Holocene record is constrained by low sediment input but does reveal a woodland presence at this altitude, dominated byBetula andCorylus. Size statistics forBetula pollen are presented and the implications of the vegetational and climatic record are discussed. The traditional view of a smooth progress towards more temperate conditions following the Younger Dryas is not supported; between 10 180 and 9120 B.P., three cooler periods are inferred, the earliest of which may belong to a terminal phase of the Younger Dryas. Comparative pollen ‘influx’ data strongly suggest thatQuercus,Ulmus andAlnus were not present locally. As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that the demise of woodland, from ca. 5950 B.P., was a result of exposure. Pollen indicative of human impact was probably derived from areas of lowland agricultural activity from ca. 5330 B.P. onwards.
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  • 70
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Vegetation dynamics ; Palynology ; Macroremains ; Plant diversity ; Laminated sediments ; Climate change ; Switzerland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract The palynostratigraphy of two sediment cores from Soppensee, Central Switzerland (596 m asl) was correlated with nine regional pollen assemblage zones defined for the Swiss Plateau. This biostratigraphy shows that the sedimentary record of Soppensee includes the last 15 000 years, i.e. the entire Late-glacial and Holocene environmental history. The vegetation history of the Soppensee catchment was inferred by pollen and plant-macrofossil analyses on three different cores taken in the deepest part of the lake basin (27 m). On the basis of a high-resolution varve and calibrated radiocarbonchronology it was possible to estimate pollen accumulation rates, which together with the pollen percentage data, formed the basis for the interpretation of the past vegetation dynamics. The basal sediment dates back to the last glacial. After reforestation with juniper and birch at ca. 12 700 B.P., the vegetation changed at around 12 000 B.P. to a pine-birch woodland and at the onset of the Holocene to a mixed deciduous forest. At ca. 7000 B.P., fir expanded and dominated the vegetation with beech becoming predominant at ca. 50014C-years later until sometime during the Iron Age. Large-scale deforestation, especially during the Middle Ages, altered the vegetation cover drastically. During the Late-glacial period two distinct regressive phases in vegetation development are demonstrated, namely, the Aegelsee oscillation (equivalent to the Older Dryas biozone) and the Younger Dryas biozone. No unambiguous evidence for Holocene climatic change was detected at Soppensee. Human presence is indicated by early cereal pollen and distinct pulses of forest clearance as a result of human activity can be observed from the Neolithic period onwards.
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    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 6 (1997), S. 117-131 
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Marine palynology ; Vegetation history ; Climate change ; Ocean currents ; Southwest Africa
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract A continuous palynological record from the marine core GeoB1016-3 from the Angola Basin reveals the regional vegetation and climate history of the last 300 ka. Pollen and spores found at the studied site have their source areas in the different vegetation zones of the adjacent part of the West African continent. Those vegetation zones comprise tropical rain forest, coastal mangrove swamp, Miombo woodland, dry forest, Afromontane forest, desert and semi-desert. The main pollen transport agent is the southeast trade wind system. Ocean currents also partly play a role in transporting pollen and spores. During the interglacial periods, ocean currents also transported palynomorphs southward. During the glacial periods, increased trade winds are indicated by high influx of pollen and spores and high pollen percentages of Poaceae and taxa from desert and semidesert vegetations. Reconstruction of the geographical position of palaeo-vegetation zones shows that the northern boundary of the Namib Desert did not move north of 12°S during the last 300 ka. This implies that northward shifts of the Angola-Benguela Front did not pass the latitude of 12°S.
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  • 72
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Marine pollen record ; S.W. Africa ; Climate change ; Human impact ; Late Pleistocene ; Holocene
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract A high resolution marine pollen record from site GeoB1023, west of the northern Namib desert provides data on vegetation and climate change for the last 21 ka at an average resolution of 185 y. Pollen and spores are mainly delivered to the site by the Cunene river and by surface and mid-tropospheric wind systems. The main pollen source areas are located between 13°S and 21°S, which includes the northern Namib desert and semi-desert, the Angola-northern Namibian highland, and the north-western Kalahari. The pollen spectra reflect environmental changes in the region. The last glacial maximum (LGM) was characterised by colder and more arid conditions than at present, when a vegetation with temperate elements such as Asteroideae, Ericaceae, and Restionaceae grew north of 21°S. At 17.5 ka cal. B.P., an amelioration both in temperature and humidity terminated the LGM but, in the northern Kalahari, mean annual rainfall in the interval 17.5-14.4 ka cal. B.P. was probably 100–150 mm lower than at present (400–500 mm/y). The Late-glacial to early Holocene transition includes two arid periods, i.e. 14.4–12.5 and 10.9–9.3 ka cal. B.P. The last part of the former period may be correlated with the Younger Dryas. The warmest and most humid period in the Holocene occurred between 6.3 and 4.8 ka cal. B.P. During the last 2000 years, human impact, as reflected by indications of deforestation, enhanced burning and overgrazing, progressively intensified.
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  • 73
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Pollen analysis ; Holocene ; Climate change ; Pinus sylvestris ; Steppe belt ; Southern Russia
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract Two14C-dated pollen profiles from mires in the steppe belt of southern Russia are presented. On the basis of these and data from earlier investigations, the Holocene forest history of the southern part of Russia and Ukraine is reconstructed. The steppe belt is very sensitive to climatic oscillations and, in particular, to changes in evapotranspiration. The most favourable climate occurred between 6000 and 4500 B.P. (6800–5200 cal. B.P.), when forest attained its maximum extent in the steppe belt. The period 4500–3500 B.P. (5200–3800 cal. B.P.) was characterised by drier climate with the most arid phase occurring between 4200–3700 B.P. (4700–4000 cal. B.P.). During arid phases, the area under forest and also peat accumulation rates declined. Subsequently, a number of less pronounced climatic oscillations occurred such as in the period 3400/3300−2800 B.P. (3600/3500−2900 cal. B.P.) when there was a return to more humid conditions. During the last 2500 years, the vegetation cover of the steppe belt in southern Russia and Ukraine took on its present-day aspect. On the one hand, there is close correlation between the Holocene vegetation history of southern Russia and Ukraine and, on the other hand, the steppe belt of Kazakhstan and transgressions in the Caspian sea. Human impact on the natural vegetation became important from the Bronze Age onwards (after 4500 B.P.; 5200 cal. B.P.). Particular attention is given to the history of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), which had a much wider distribution in the southern part of eastern Europe in the early Holocene. The reduction in range during recent millennia has come about as a result of the combined effects of both climatic deterioration and increased human impact.
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  • 74
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 7 (1996), S. 15-43 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Climate change ; carbon sequestration ; farm policy ; afforestation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract There is a growing body of literature on the costs of sequestering carbon. However, no studies have examined the interplay between farm commodity programs and carbon sequestration programs. This study investigates two dimensions of the interaction between farm commodity programs and afforestation programs, using a price-endogenous sector model of agriculture in the United States. First, this study compares the fiscal and welfare costs of achieving specific carbon targets through afforestation, with and without current farm programs. Second, it examines the welfare, fiscal, and carbon consequences of replacing existing farm subsidies, wholly or in part, with payments for carbon. Two approaches, Hicksian and Marshallian, are investigated. In the first, the sector model is used to quantify the carbon consequences and fiscal costs associated with various combinations of farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that leave consumers and producers in the U.S. agricultural sector no worse off than under existing farm programs. The second approach focuses on the carbon and welfare consequences of various farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that hold total program fiscal costs constant at current levels. Althouth the methodology and data are applied to the United States, the issues addressed are common in a number of developed nations, particularly within the European Union (EU). Adapting existing sector models in these nations to perform similar analyses would provide policy makers with more precise information about the nature of the trade-offs involved with second-best policies for replacing farm commodity subsidies with tree planting subsidies.
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