ALBERT

Description: Mount Etna is the highest relief in Sicily and represents a unique environment because of its long established and almost continuous eruptive activity, that has moulded its landforms and which has produced distinctive landscapes. Over the past 60 ka both destructive and constructive geological processes have produced the principal morphological features of the volcano such as the wide Valle del Bove depression, monogenic scoria cones and extensive lava flow fields. Relationships between Etna, its environment and human activity began in the Neolithic Period within the mountain foot region and have developed over millennia. Even though there has been a rapid rate of resurfacing by lava during historic times, the impact on human activity has been short-lived, recovery has been rapid and society has adjusted to the ever present hazard in distinctive ways.

Description: Published

Description: 467-478

Description: 1V. Storia eruttiva

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: Volcanic crises are complex and especially challenging to manage. Volcanic unrest is characterised by uncertainty about whether an eruption will or will not take place, as well as its possible location, size and evolution. Planning is further complicated by the range of potential hazards and the variety of disciplines involved in forecasting and responding to volcanic emergencies. Effective management is favoured at frequently active volcanoes, owing to the experience gained through the repeated ‘testing’ of systems of communication. Even when plans have not been officially put in place, the groups involved tend to have an understanding of their roles and responsibilities and those of others. Such experience is rarely available at volcanoes that have been quiescent for several generations. Emergency responses are less effective, not only because of uncertainties about the volcanic system itself, but also because scientists, crisis directors, managers and the public are inexperienced in volcanic unrest. In such situations, tensions and misunderstandings result in poor communication and have the potential to affect decision making and delay vital operations. Here we compare experiences on communi- cating information during crises on volcanoes reawakening after long repose (El Hierro in the Canary Islands) and in frequent eruption (Etna and Stromboli in Sicily). The results provide a basis for enhancing commu- nication protocols during volcanic emergencies.

Description: Published

Description: 1-17

Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: In this study, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios in a Lateglacial to Holocene stalagmite (CC26) from Corchia Cave (central Italy) are compared with stable isotope data to define palaeohydrological changes. For most of the record, the trace element ratios show small absolute variability but similar patterns, which are also consistent with stable isotope variations. Higher trace element-to-calcium values are interpreted as responses to decreasing moisture, inducing changes in the residence time of percolation, producing prior calcite precipitation and/or variations in the hydrological routing. Statistically meaningful levels of covariability were determined using anomalies of Mg/Ca, d18O and d13C. Combining these three time series into a single ‘palaeomoisture-trend’ parameter, we highlight several events of reduced moisture (ca. 8.9–8.4, 6.2, 4.2, 3.1 and 2.0 ka), a humid period between ca. 7.9 and 8.3 ka and other shorter-term wet events at ca. 5.8, 5.3 and 3.7 ka. Most of these events can be correlated with climate changes inferred from other regional studies. For both extremities of the record (i.e. before ca. 12.4 ka and after ca. 0.5 ka) Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca are anti-correlated and show the greatest amplitude of values, a likely explanation for which involves aragonite and/or gypsum precipitation (the latter derived from pyrite oxidation) above the CC26 drip point.

Description: Published

Description: 381–392

Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: This study is focused on the (micro)biogeochemical features of two close geothermal sites (FAV1 and FAV2), both selected at the main exhalative area of Pantelleria Island, Italy. A previous biogeochemical survey revealed high CH4 consumption and the presence of a diverse community of methanotrophs at FAV2 site, whereas the close site FAV1 was apparently devoid of methanotrophs and recorded no CH4 consumption. Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) techniques were applied to describe the bacterial and archaeal communities which have been linked to the physicochemical conditions and the geothermal sources of energy available at the two sites. Both sites are dominated by Bacteria and host a negligible component of ammonia-oxidizing Archaea (phylum Thaumarchaeota). The FAV2 bacterial community is characterized by an extraordinary diversity of methanotrophs, with 40% of the sequences assigned to Methylocaldum, Methylobacter (Gammaproteobacteria) and Bejerickia (Alphaproteobacteria); conversely, a community of thermo-acidophilic chemolithotrophs (Acidithiobacillus, Nitrosococcus) or putative chemolithotrophs (Ktedonobacter) dominates the FAV1 community, in the absence of methanotrophs. Since physical andchemical factors of FAV1, such as temperature and pH, cannot be considered limiting for methanotrophy, it is hypothesized that the main limiting factor for methanotrophs could be high NH4+ concentration. At the same time, abundant availability of NH4+ and other high energy electron donors and acceptors determined by the hydrothermal flux in this site create more energetically favourable conditions for chemolithotrophs that outcompete methanotrophs in non-nitrogen-limited soils.

Description: Published

Description: 150–162

Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The storage concession "Minerbio Stoccaggio" (Bologna, Northern Italy) covers a 69 km 2 area, 65% of hich is located in the Minerbio municipality. Since 1979, a microseismic network for the monitoring of seismicity, eventually induced by gas storage activities, has been installed in this area. The network was operated by Stogit S.p.A, a subsidiary company of Snam, which is the largest storage operator in Italy. In 2016, the microseismic network, consisting of three surface stations and one 100-m-deep borehole sensor with minimum interstation distances of about 3.0 km, was integrated with 12 regional stations installed in an 80 × 80 km 2 area centered on the surface projection of the reservoir. In 2018, the microseismic network was enhanced by adding one surface and three 150-m-deep borehole stations. In this work, we evaluate the detection improvement of the microseismic network, integrated with the regional stations. We define two crustal volumes for earthquake detection: the inner domain of detection, IDD (10 × 10 × 5) km 3 , within which we should ensure the highest network performance, and the extended domain of detection, EDD (22 × 22 × 11) km 3 . By comparing the simulated power spectral density of hypothetical seismic sources located in EDD with the average power spectra of ambient seismic noise observed at each station site, we calculate detection and localization thresholds for the two above-mentioned networks. Under unfavourable noise conditions, we find that the present operative seismic network allows locating earthquakes with M L ≥ 0.8 occurring at the depth of the reservoir and with M L ≥ 1.0 if located within IDD.

Description: Funding information This study received financial support from BComune di Minerbio^ under the grant BSperimentazione ILG Minerbio^ (grant number 0913.010)

Description: Published

Description: 967–977

Description: 3SR TERREMOTI - Attività dei Centri

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Although human behavior is the crucial factor in the degree of vulnerability and the likelihood of disasters taking place, preparedness and prevention programs are not mandatory in all countries around the world. Within the framework of UPStrat-MAFA (Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic FAults), we have defined the disaster prevention strategies based on education management information and actions taken in Iceland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy. A detailed comparative study shows that compulsory school in these four participating countries is greatly unprepared with regard to hazard education, and these results are in line with worldwide studies. Moreover, when hazards are addressed, this is not done at an early age, which results in a missed chance to intervene in the noncognitive side of awareness, which decreases at later ages. To comply with the urge to take actions towards training and education at an early age, we used hands-on tools and learn-by-playing approaches in an informal learning environment. To reach the older population, the audio- visual media appears to be the best and lowest cost alternative to promote risk perception, awareness and education.

Description: Published

Description: 77-80

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: restricted

Description: This paper presents an original multidisciplinary (geological-structural-geomorphological and seismological) study aimed at investigating the origin of diffused seismic damages affecting several ancient buildings in the Roman port city of Ostia. We also evaluate the possibility to relate these damages to a previously hypothesized ENE-WSW trending fault, bordering the morphological height upon which the Ostia town was founded. Aimed at this scope, we performed seismic noise measures (by using 14 seismic stations) that show no significantly different response and lack of significant ground motion differential amplifications. The coexistence of (i) no local geological heterogeneities and (ii) low amplification of spectral ratios in the recorded seismic signals seems to exclude that the observed seismic damage may be the consequence of significant site effects. When also the large distance from the strongest Apennine’s seismogenic source areas is considered, the possibility that the observed damage may be the consequence of local events should be considered. We discuss the potentiality of the ENE-WSW trending fault as the source of the observed seismic damages, highlighting the supporting evidence as well as the uncertainties of such interpretation.

Description: Published

Description: 833–851

Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This work describes the analysis of the strong-motion data from the Engineering Strong Motion database (ESM, http://esm.mi.ingv.it), aimed at: (1) extract a dataset of accelero- metric waveforms recorded during the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence; (2) iden- tify the recording stations to be used as reference sites for further seismological analysis; (3) select the records to be used as input for seismic microzonation of higher level at 137 municipalities. Firstly, a residual analysis is carried out on the extracted dataset to perform: (1) the quality check of the waveforms recorded by temporary networks installed soon after the occurrence of the rst main shock (M 6.0, 24 August 2016); (2) the estimation of the site-to-site residual term for each recording station with the aim of recognising potential reference rock sites. Finally, the software REXELite, integrated within the ESM website, is adopted to select suites of spectrum-compatible accelerograms, that will be used as input for calculating site ampli cations through 1D and 2D simulations at sites which suf- fered the greatest damage. The results of this work demonstrate the success of the synergy among Italian institutions. The setup of key infrastructures, such as emergency networks and data repositories, together with the knowledge developed during national projects, turned out to be successful in terms of timely intervention during the emergency phase and the planning of the post-emergency.

Description: Published

Description: 5533–5551

Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Volcanoes hold a fascination for human beings and, before they were recorded by literate observers, eruptions were portrayed in art, were recalled in legend and became incorporated into religious practices: being viewed as agents of punishment, bounty or intimidation depending upon their state of activity and the culture involved. In the Middle East the earliest record dates from the third millennium BCE and knowledge of volcanoes increased progressively over time. In the first century CE written records noted nine volcanoes in the Mediterranean region plus Mount Cameroon in West Africa, yet by 1380 AD the record only totalled 48, with volcanoes in Japan, Indonesia and Iceland being added. After this the list of continued to increase, but important regions such as New Zealand and Hawaii were only added during the last 200 years. Only from 1900 did the rate of growth decline significantly, but it is sobering to recall that in the twentieth century major eruptions have occurred from volcanoes that were considered inactive or extinct, examples including: Mount Lamington—Papua New Guinea, 1951; Mount Arenal—Costa Rica, 1968 and Nyos—Cameroon, 1986. Although there were instances where the human impact of historical eruptions were studied in detail, with examples including the 1883 eruption of Krakatau and 1943–1952 eruption of Parícutin, these were exceptions and before 1980 there was a significant knowledge gap about both the short and long-term effects of major eruptions on societies. Following a global review, this chapter provides a discussion of the ways in which information has been collected, compiled and disseminated from the earliest times until the 1980s in two case study areas: the Azores Islands (Portugal) and southern Italy. In Italy information on eruptions stretches back to prehistoric times and has become progressively better known over more than 2,000 years, yet even here there remain significant gaps in the record even for events that took place between 1900 and 1990. In contrast, located in the middle of the Atlantic, the Azores have been isolated for much of their history and illustrate the difficulties involved in using indigenous sources to compile, not only assessments of impact, but also at a more basic level a complete list of historical events with accurate dates.

Description: Published

Description: 1-25

Description: 1V. Storia eruttiva

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: This chapter provides an overview of last two decades, European experiences in educational seismology and describes the different contexts in which they have been developed. The basic idea of these educational projects is that Seismology may represent an efficient communication vehicle for teaching a wide range of basic Earth sci-ence topics through laboratory practices and educational activities. Moreover it is also an effective tool to raise in the young citizens the awareness on the earthquake risk and possible mitigation actions. In this frame several seismic stations with different technologies were installed in schools across Europe. The scientific support of re-searchers and the need to establish strong links between teachers and researchers attribute to the school an active role in the knowledge process using the scientific laboratory practice by adopting the “learning by doing” modern approach of science communication (R. Schank and C. Cleary, 1995, Engines for Education, Ed. Routledge, 248 pp). Some educational activities correlated with seismological projects are presented, following different strategies depending on the country, but all aimed at building a new way to communicate science in the schools. The new vogue is the opening toward social networks and blogs. This generalizes the concept of an educational Geoscience website making it an e-platform for science communication and multimedia data sharing, where researchers, teachers, students and education op-erators can interact and constantly be kept informed of ongoing activities and relevant events. All of these 'seismology at school' initiatives rely on the concept of school networking and will merge in the European project NERA (Network of European Research Infrastructures for Earthquake Risk Assessment and Mitigation, http://www.nera-eu.org/) where a spe-cific workpackage is dedicated to networking school seismology programs.

Description: Published

Description: 145-170

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: restricted

Description: This article presents an integrated approach for the probabilistic systemic risk analysis of a road network considering spatial seismic hazard with correlation of ground motion intensities, vulnerability of the network components, and the effect of interactions within the network, as well as, between roadway components and built environment to the network functionality. The system performance is evaluated at the system level through a global connectivity performance indicator, which depends on both physical damages to its components and induced functionality losses due to interactions with other systems. An object-oriented modeling paradigm is used, where the complex problem of several interacting systems is decomposed in a number of interacting objects, accounting for intra- and interdependencies between and within systems. Each system is specified with its components, solving algorithms, performance indicators and interactions with other systems. The proposed approach is implemented for the analysis of the road network in the city of Thessaloniki (Greece) to demonstrate its applicability. In particular, the risk for the road network in the area is calculated, specifically focusing on the short-term impact of seismic events (just after the earthquake). The potential of road blockages due to collapses of adjacent buildings and overpass bridges is analyzed, trying to individuate possible criticalities related to specific components/subsystems. The application can be extended based on the proposed approach, to account for other interactions such as failure of pipelines beneath the road segments, collapse of adjacent electric poles, or malfunction of lighting and signaling systems due to damage in the electric power network.

Description: Published

Description: 524–540

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The knowledge of the local soil structure is important for the assessment of seismic hazards. A widespread, but time-consuming technique to retrieve the parameters of the local underground is the drilling of boreholes. Another way to obtain the shear wave velocity profile at a given location is the inversion of surface wave dispersion curves. To ensure a good resolution for both superficial and deeper layers, the used dispersion curves need to cover a wide frequency range. This wide frequency range can be obtained using several arrays of seismic sensors or a single array comprising a large number of sensors. Consequently, these measurements are time-consuming. A simpler alternative is provided by the use of the ellipticity of Rayleigh waves. The frequency dependence of the ellipticity is tightly linked to the shear wave velocity profile. Furthermore, it can be measured using a single seismic sensor. As soil structures obtained by scaling of a given model exhibit the same ellipticity curve, any inversion of the ellipticity curve alone will be ambiguous. Therefore, additional measurements which fix the absolute value of the shear wave velocity profile at some points have to be included in the inversion process. Small-scale spatial autocorrelation measurements or MASW measurements can provide the needed data. Using a theoretical soil structure, we show which parts of the ellipticity curve have to be included in the inversion process to get a reliable result and which parts can be omitted. Furthermore, the use of autocorrelation or high-frequency dispersion curves will be highlighted. The resulting guidelines for inversions including ellipticity data are then applied to real data measurements collected at 14 different sites during the European NERIES project. It is found that the results are in good agreement with dispersion curve measurements. Furthermore, the method can help in identifying the mode of Rayleigh waves in dispersion curve measurements.

Description: Published

Description: 207-229

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The Disruption Index is used here for the assessment of urban disruption in the Mt. Etna area after a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which is based on information about the historical seismicity and seismogenic faults. The second element is the computation of the seismic impact on the building stock and infrastructure in the region considered. Information on urban-scale vulnerability was collected and a geographic information system was used to organize the data relating to buildings and network systems (e.g., typologies, schools, strategic structures, lifelines). The central idea underlying the definition of the Disruption Index is the identification and evaluation of the impacts on a target community, considering the physical elements that contribute most to the severe disruption. The results of this study are therefore very useful for earthquake preparedness planning and for the development of strategies to minimize the risks from earthquakes. This study is a product of the European “Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources” project (UPStrat-MAFA European project 2013).

Description: Published

Description: Torino

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: open

Description: Stable isotopes were measured in the carbonate and organic matter of palaeosols in the Somma–Vesuvius area, southern Italy in order to test whether they are suitable proxy records for climatic and ecological changes in this area during the past 18000 yr. The ages of the soils span from ca. 18 to ca. 3 kyr BP. Surprisingly, the Last Glacial to Holocene climate transition was not accompanied by significant change in d18O of pedogenic carbonate. This could be explained by changes in evaporation rate and in isotope fractionation between water and precipitated carbonate with temperature, which counterbalanced the expected change in isotope composition of meteoric water. Because of the rise in temperature and humidity and the progressive increase in tree cover during the Holocene, the Holocene soil carbonates closely reflect the isotopic composition of meteoric water. A cooling of about 2°C after the Avellino eruption (3.8 ka) accounts for a sudden decrease of about 1‰ in d18O of pedogenic carbonate recorded after this eruption. The d13C values of organic matter and pedogenic carbonate covary, indicating an effective isotope equilibrium between the organic matter, as the source of CO2, and the pedogenic carbonate. Carbon isotopes suggest prevailing C3 vegetation and negligible mixing with volcanogenic or atmospheric CO2.

Description: Published

Description: 813-824

Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision-making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first-excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance-based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post-mainshock environment. A time-dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event-dependent fragility curves as a function of the first-mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back-to-back non- linear dynamic analyses. An epidemic-type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio-temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event-dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first-excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the num- ber of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L’Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three-story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first-excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Published

Description: 2179–2197

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved

Description: A new climate model has been developed that employs a multi-resolution dynamical core for the sea ice-ocean component. In principle, the multi-resolution approach allows one to use enhanced horizontal resolution in dynamically active regions while keeping a coarse-resolution setup otherwise. The coupled model consists of the atmospheric model ECHAM6 and the finite element sea ice-ocean model (FESOM). In this study only moderate refinement of the unstructured ocean grid is applied and the resolution varies from about 25 km in the northern North Atlantic and in the tropics to about 150 km in parts of the open ocean; the results serve as a benchmark upon which future versions that exploit the potential of variable resolution can be built. Details of the formulation of the model are given and its performance in simulating observed aspects of the mean climate is described. Overall, it is found that ECHAM6–FESOM realistically simulates many aspects of the observed climate. More specifically it is found that ECHAM6–FESOM performs at least as well as some of the most sophisticated climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. ECHAM6–FESOM shares substantial shortcomings with other climate models when it comes to simulating the North Atlantic circulation.

Description: Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of time scales. On sub-seasonal time scales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellite (12 m resolution). The high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km2) allow us to track volume losses as drivers such as the available energy change during summer in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm/day) despite the ample available energy, indicating the widespread presence of an insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm/day), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August, respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the slump area. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.

Description: Sediment delivery to the abyssal regions of the oceans is an integral process in the source to sink cycle of material derived from adjacent continents and islands. The Zambezi River, the largest in southern Africa, delivers vast amounts of material to the inner continental shelf of central Mozambique. The aim of this contribution is to better constrain sediment transport pathways to the abyssal plains using the latest, regional, high-resolution multibeam bathymetry data available, taking into account the effects of bottom water circulation, antecedent basin morphology and sea-level change. Results show that sediment transport and delivery to the abyssal plains is partitioned into three distinct domains; southern, central and northern. Sediment partitioning is primarily controlled by changes in continental shelf and shelf-break morphology under the influence of a clockwise rotating shelf circulation system. However, changes in sealevel have an overarching control on sediment delivery to particular domains. During highstand conditions, such as today, limited sediment delivery to the submarine Zambezi Valley and Channel is proposed, with increased sediment delivery to the deepwater basin being envisaged during regression and lowstand conditions. However, there is a pronounced along-strike variation in sediment transport during the sea-level cycle due to changes in the width, depth and orientation of the shelf. This combination of features outlines a sequence stratigraphic concept not generally considered in the strike-aligned shelf-slope-abyssal continuum.

Description: A suite of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs – acetaldehyde, acetone, propanal, butanal and butanone) were measured concurrently in the surface water and atmosphere of the South China Sea and Sulu Sea in November 2011. A strong correlation was observed between all OVOC concentrations in the surface seawater along the entire cruise track, except for acetaldehyde, suggesting similar sources and sinks in the surface ocean. Additionally, several phytoplankton groups, such as haptophytes or pelagophytes, were also correlated to all OVOCs indicating that phytoplankton may be an important source for marine OVOCs in the South China and Sulu Seas. Humic and protein like fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) components seemed to be additional precursors for butanone and acetaldehyde. The atmospheric OVOC mixing ratios were relative high compared with literature values, suggesting the coastal region of North Borneo as a local hot spot for atmospheric OVOCs. The flux of atmospheric OVOCs was largely into the ocean for all 5 gases, with a few important exceptions near the coast of Borneo. The calculated amount of OVOCs entrained into the ocean seemed to be an important source of OVOCs to the surface ocean. When the fluxes were out of the ocean, marine OVOCs were found to be enough to control the local measured OVOC distribution in the atmosphere. Based on our model calculations, at least 0.4 ppb of marine derived acetone and butanone can reach the upper troposphere, where they may have an important influence on hydrogen oxide radical formation over the western Pacific Ocean.

Description: The Chilean fjord region, situated between 42 and 56 °S, forms one of the most ragged shorelines and belongs to the ecologically and biogeographically least understood marine regions of the world. A labyrinth of fjords, channels, and islands extends over 240,000 km2 and creates a coastline of more than 80,000 km. Due to strong abiotic gradients, numerous habitats are created, which are further diversified by temporal dynamics (tidal cycle, seasonal changes in precipitation, temperature, radiation, etc.). The region is a biodiversity hotspot hosting unique and fragile ecosystems. Among the species living here, several are species forming habitats in the ecosystem. These organisms can reach high densities conforming the so-called marine animal forests. Examples are marine animal forests dominated by cold-water stony corals, gorgonians, hydrocorals, brachiopods, polychaetes, giant barnacles, sponges, and ascidians. Many of these communities have been discov- ered only recently. There is also a singular characteristic in this area: exceptionally low pH levels of the waters of Patagonian fjords provide the opportunity to study calcifying organisms in an environment with pH conditions in the same range as the ones predicted by the IPCC for the world oceans in 2100. Despite the scarce ecological and biogeographical knowledge of this area, it encounters an unparalleled economic development including high-impact industry-scale salmonid farming, ambitious infrastructure and industrialization projects, and increasing extractive activities. Baseline research on the abiotic and biotic environment of the region is needed to reach sustainability in the use of the marine resources. Management plans including the establishment of marine protected areas to preserve benthic diversity and ecosystem services are urgently needed.

Description: The Extrapolar SWIFT model is a fast ozone chemistry scheme for interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast to the widely used prescribed ozone, the SWIFT ozone layer interacts with the model dynamics and can respond to atmospheric variability or climatological trends. The Extrapolar SWIFT model employs a repro-modelling approach, where algebraic functions are used to approximate the numerical output of a full stratospheric chemistry and transport model (ATLAS). The full model solves a coupled chemical differential equations system with 55 initial and boundary conditions (mixing ratio of various chemical species and atmospheric parameters). Hence the rate of change of ozone over 24  h is a function of 55 variables. Using covariances between these variables, we can find linear combinations in order to reduce the parameter space to the following nine basic variables: latitude, pressure altitude, temperature, local ozone column, mixing ratio of ozone and of the ozone depleting families (Cly, Bry, NOy and HOy). We will show that these 9 variables are sufficient to characterize the rate of change of ozone. An automated procedure fits a polynomial function of fourth degree to the rate of change of ozone obtained from several simulations with the ATLAS model. One polynomial function is determined per month which yields the rate of change of ozone over 24 h. A key aspect for the robustness of the Extrapolar SWIFT model is to include a wide range of stratospheric variability in the numerical output of the ATLAS model, also covering atmospheric states that will occur in a future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes or reduction of stratospheric chlorine loading). For validation purposes, the Extrapolar SWIFT model has been integrated into the ATLAS model replacing the full stratospheric chemistry scheme. Simulations with SWIFT in ATLAS have proven that the systematic error is small and does not accumulate during the course of a simulation. In the context of a 10 year simulation, the ozone layer, simulated by SWIFT, shows a stable annual cycle, with inter-annual variations comparable to the ATLAS model. The application of Extrapolar SWIFT requires the evaluation of polynomial functions with 30–100 terms. Nowadays, computers can calculate such polynomial functions at thousands of model grid points in seconds. SWIFT provides the desired numerical efficiency and computes the ozone layer 104 times faster than the chemistry scheme in the ATLAS CTM.

Description: Ice retreat in the eastern Eurasian Arctic is a consequence of atmospheric and oceanic processes and regional feedback mechanisms acting on the ice cover, both in winter and summer. A correct representation of these processes in numerical models is important, since it will improve predictions of sea ice anomalies along the Northeast Passage and beyond. In this study, we highlight the importance of winter ice dynamics for local summer sea ice anomalies in thickness, volume and extent. By means of airborne sea ice thickness surveys made over pack ice areas in the south-eastern Laptev Sea, we show that years of offshore-directed sea ice transport have a thinning effect on the late-winter sea ice cover. To confirm the preconditioning effect of enhanced offshore advection in late winter on the summer sea ice cover, we perform a sensitivity study using a numerical model. Results verify that the preconditioning effect plays a bigger role for the regional ice extent. Furthermore, they indicate an increase in volume export from the Laptev Sea as a consequence of enhanced offshore advection, which has far-reaching consequences for the entire Arctic sea ice mass balance. Moreover we show that ice dynamics in winter not only preconditions local summer ice extent, but also accelerate fast-ice decay.

Description: Mineral ballasting enhances carbon export from the surface to the deep ocean; however, little is known about the role of this process in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean. Here, we propose gypsum ballasting as a new mechanism that likely facilitated enhanced vertical carbon export from an under-ice phytoplankton bloom dominated by the haptophyte Phaeocystis. In the spring 2015 abundant gypsum crystals embedded in Phaeocystis aggregates were collected throughout the water column and on the sea floor at a depth below 2 km. Model predictions supported by isotopic signatures indicate that 2.7 g m−2 gypsum crystals were formed in sea ice at temperatures below −6.5°C and released into the water column during sea ice melting. Our finding indicates that sea ice derived (cryogenic) gypsum is stable enough to survive export to the deep ocean and serves as an effective ballast mineral. Our findings also suggest a potentially important and previously unknown role of Phaeocystis in deep carbon export due to cryogenic gypsum ballasting. The rapidly changing Arctic sea ice regime might favour this gypsum gravity chute with potential consequences for carbon export and food partitioning between pelagic and benthic ecosystems.

Description: We use a comprehensive suite of partially laminated high-resolution sediment cores from the Bering Sea, covering a depth transect from 1100 m to 2700 m to study deglacial surface ocean warming patterns, associated changes in biological productivity, oxygen minimum zone dynamics and continent-ocean links through Yukon river runoff. We apply a combination of planktic and benthic isotopes, x-ray fluorescence (XRF)-derived ele- mental ratios and a multi-proxy assessment of changes in upper ocean temperatures. Severe oxygen depletions occurred during the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) and early Holocene, which is in accordance with other locations in the North Pacific, especially the Alaska margin. Detailed analysis of the timing of lamination occurrence between the different sediment cores revealed that the onset of severe anoxia at the beginning of the B/A and early Holocene is a near-synchronous event, while the disappearance of laminations is a diachronic process. The deglacial Oxygen Minimum Zone(OMZ) strengthening is mainly driven by increased export production, visible in XRF-derived elemental ratios, and corresponding high accumulation rates of biogenic components. The export production in turn is a response to rising sea surface temperatures, decreased sea ice cover and increased thermal stratification, while a major nutrient source was the eastern continental shelf, which was flooded during the deglacial global sea level rise. It is discussed controversially whether oxygenation variations in the deglacial subarctic Pacific were coupled to changes in mid-depth water chemistry, or rather a response to physical processes like deep-intermediate ocean or mixed layer warming, or stratification changes. However, knowledge of the driving forcing mechanism for OMZ strengthening is of particular importance, as these are tightly coupled to the regional marine carbon budget, e.g. via the strength and efficiency of the biological pump. Here, our laminated sediments provided the opportunity to study ocean dynamics in exceptional detail, possible on decadal to annual timescales. Due to the correlation patterns of our records to the NGRIP oxygen isotope record through layer counts we presume that (i) the presence of laminations is tightly coupled to submillennial, short-term warm phases, especially during the Bølling-Allerød (B/A), (ii) that the laminations represent annual layered sediments (varves). The latter point in conjunction with our geochemical proxies strongly supports an atmospheric teleconnection between SE Asia, the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, with observed changes in mid-depth ocean dynamics occurring on fast, nearly decadal timescales. Thus, the Bering Sea OMZ is a highly sensitive system reacting almost instantaneously to small temperature changes and therefore has the potential to influence the global carbon budget on short timescales, in particular during episodes of rapidly warming climate.

Description: Sea-ice ecosystems are among the most extensive of Earth’s habitats; yet its autotrophic and heterotrophic activities remain poorly constrained. We employed the in situ aquatic eddy-covariance (AEC) O2 flux method and laboratory incubation techniques (H14CO3−, [3H] thymidine and [3H] leucine) to assess productivity in Arctic sea-ice using different methods, in conditions ranging from land-fast ice during winter, to pack ice within the central Arctic Ocean during summer. Laboratory tracer measurements resolved rates of bacterial C demand of 0.003–0.166 mmol C m−2 day−1 and primary productivity rates of 0.008–0.125 mmol C m−2 day−1 for the different ice floes. Pack ice in the central Arctic Ocean was overall net autotrophic (0.002–0.063 mmol C m−2 day−1), whereas winter land-fast ice was net heterotrophic (− 0.155 mmol C m−2 day−1). AEC measurements resolved an uptake of O2 by the bottom-ice environment, from ~ − 2 mmol O2 m−2 day−1 under winter land-fast ice to~ − 6 mmol O2 m−2 day−1 under summer pack ice. Flux of O2-deplete meltwater and changes in water flow velocity masked potential biological-mediated activity. AEC estimates of primary productivity were only possible at one study location. Here, productivity rates of 1.3 ± 0.9 mmol O2 m−2 day−1, much larger than concurrent laboratory tracer estimates (0.03 mmol C m−2 day−1), indicate that ice algal production and its importance within the marine Arctic could be underestimated using traditional approaches. Given careful flux interpretation and with further development, the AEC technique represents a promising new tool for assessing oxygen dynamics and sea-ice productivity in ice-covered regions.

Description: The genus Alexandrium (Halim) is perhaps the most intensively studied among toxic marine dinoflagellates. This is largely attributable to the devastating consequences of toxigenic blooms of this genus, with human poisonings from contaminated seafood, primarily from shellfish and more rarely from finfish; socio–economic losses to the aquaculture and fisheries industries; marine faunal mortalities; and food web disruptions common in coastal waters throughout the world. Members of this genus are globally distributed from the Arctic to the tropics, and in both hemispheres from sub–polar through temperate to sub–tropical to tropicalwaters. At least four distinct groups of marine phycotoxins are associated with various Alexandrium species, along with poorly characterized bioactive compounds (allelochemicals) that may affect species interactions among the plankton. According to the most recent iteration of the IOC–UNESCO reference list of toxic microalgae, there are now more than 30 recognized morphological species of Alexandrium, posing a daunting challenge for risk assessment and accurate identification in toxic phytoplankton monitoring programs.

Description: The aim of the presented study was to investigate the impact on the radiation budget of a biomass-burning plume, transported from Alaska to the High Arctic region of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, in early July 2015. Since the mean aerosol optical depth increased by the factor of 10 above the average summer background values, this large aerosol load event is considered particularly exceptional in the last 25 years. In situ data with hygroscopic growth equations, as well as remote sensing measurements as inputs to radiative transfer models, were used, in order to estimate biases associated with (i) hygroscopicity, (ii) variability of single-scattering albedo profiles, and (iii) plane-parallel closure of the modelled atmosphere. A chemical weather model with satellite-derived biomass-burning emissions was applied to interpret the transport and transformation pathways. The provided MODTRAN radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations for the smoke event (14:00 9 July–11:30 11 July) resulted in a mean aerosol direct radiative forcing at the levels of −78.9 and −47.0 W m ^-2 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively, for the mean value of aerosol optical depth equal to 0.64 at 550 nm. This corresponded to the average clear-sky direct radiative forcing of −43.3 W/m ^2, estimated by radiometer and model simulations at the surface. Ultimately, uncertainty associated with the plane-parallel atmosphere approximation altered results by about 2 W m^−2. Furthermore, model-derived aerosol direct radiative forcing efficiency reached on average −126 W m^−2/τ550 and −71 W^m−2/τ550 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively. The heating rate, estimated at up to 1.8 K day^−1 inside the biomass-burning plume, implied vertical mixing with turbulent kinetic energy of 0.3 m^2s^−2

Description: The study investigates the in-situ strength of sediments across a plate boundary décollement using drilling parameters recorded when a 1180-m-deep borehole was established during International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP)Expedition 370, Temperature-Limit of the Deep Biosphere off Muroto (T-Limit). Information of the in-situ strength of the shallow portion in/around a plate boundary fault zone is critical for understanding the development of accretionary prisms and of the décollement itself. Studies using seismic reflection surveys and scientific ocean drillings have recently revealed the existence of high pore pressure zones around frontal accretionary prisms, which may reduce the effective strength of the sediments. A direct measurement of in-situ strength by experiments, however, has not been executed due to the difficulty in estimating in-situ stress conditions. In this study, we derived a depth profile for the in-situ strength of a frontal accretionary prism across a décollement from drilling parameters using the recently established equivalent strength (EST) method. At site C0023, the toe of the accretionary prism area off Cape Muroto, Japan, the EST gradually increases with depth but undergoes a sudden change at ~ 800 mbsf, corresponding to the top of the subducting sediment. At this depth, directly below the décollement zone, the EST decreases from ~ 10 to 2 MPa, with a change in the baseline. This mechanically weak zone in the subducting sediments extends over 250 m (~ 800–1050 mbsf), corresponding to the zone where the fluid influx was discovered, and high-fluid pressure was suggested by previous seismic imaging observations. Although the origin of the fluids or absolute values of the strength remain unclear, our investigations support previous studies suggesting that elevated pore pressure beneath the décollement weakens the subducting sediments.

Description: Our knowledge on distribution, habitats and behavior of Southern Ocean fishes living at water depths beyond scuba-diving limits is still sparse, as it is difficult to obtain quantitative data on these aspects of their biology. Here, we report the results of an analysis of seabed images to investigate species composition, behavior, spatial distribution and preferred habitats of demersal fish assemblages in the southern Weddell Sea. Our study was based on a total of 2736 high-resolution images, covering a total seabed area of 11,317 m2, which were taken at 13 stations at water depths between 200 and 750 m. Fish were found in 380 images. A total of 379 notothenioid specimens were recorded, representing four families (Nototheniidae, Artedidraconidae, Bathydraconidae, Channichthyidae), 17 genera and 25 species. Nototheniidae was the most speciose fam- ily, including benthic species (Trematomus spp.) and the pelagic species Pleuragramma antarctica, which was occasionally recorded in dense shoals. Bathydraconids ranked second with six species, followed by artedidraconids and channichthyids, both with five species. Most abundant species were Trematomus scotti and T. lepidorhinus among nototheniids, and Dol- loidraco longedorsalis and Pagetopsis maculatus among artedidraconids and channichthyids, respectively. Both T. lepi- dorhinus and P. maculatus preferred seabed habitats characterized by biogenous debris and rich epibenthic fauna, whereas T. scotti and D. longedorsalis were frequently seen resting on fine sediments and scattered gravel. Several fish species were recorded to make use of the three-dimensional structure formed by epibenthic foundation species, like sponges, for perching or hiding inside. Nesting behavior was observed, frequently in association with dropstones, in species from various families, including Channichthyidae (Chaenodraco wilsoni and Pagetopsis macropterus) and Bathydraconidae (Cygnodraco mawsoni).

Description: A new 21.3m firn core was drilled in 2015 at a coastal Antarctic high-accumulation site in Adélie Land (66.78◦ S; 139.56◦ E, 602 m a.s.l.), named Terre Adélie 192A (TA192A). The mean isotopic values (−19.3 ‰ ± 3.1 ‰ for δ18O and 5.4 ‰±2.2 ‰ for deuterium excess) are consistent with other coastal Antarctic values. No significant isotope–temperature relationship can be evidenced at any timescale. This rules out a simple interpretation in terms of local temperature. An observed asymmetry in the δ18O seasonal cycle may be explained by the precipitation of air masses coming from the eastern and western sectors in autumn and winter, recorded in the d-excess signal showing outstanding values in austral spring versus autumn. Significant positive trends are observed in the annual d-excess record and local sea ice extent (135–145◦ E) over the period 1998–2014. However, process studies focusing on resulting isotopic compositions and particularly the deuterium excess–δ18O relationship, evidenced as a potential fingerprint of moisture origins, as well as the collection of more isotopic measurements in Adélie Land are needed for an accurate interpretation of our signals.

Description: Due to its year-round accessibility and excellent on-site infrastructure, Kongsfjorden and the Ny-Ålesund Research and Monitoring Facility have become established as a primary location to study the impact of environmental change on Arctic coastal ecosystems. Due to its location right at the interface of Arctic and Atlantic oceanic regimes, Kongsfjorden already experiences large amplitudes of variability in physico/chemical conditions and might, thus, be considered as an early warning indicator of future changes, which can then be extrapolated in a pan-Arctic perspective. Already now, Kongsfjorden represents one of the best-studied Arctic fjord systems. However, research conducted to date has concentrated largely on small disciplinary projects, prompting the need for a higher level of integration of future research activities. This contribution, thus, aims at identifying gaps in knowledge and research priorities with respect to ecological and adaptive responses to Arctic ecosystem changes. By doing so we aim to provide a stimulus for the initiation of new international and interdisciplinary research initiatives.

Description: The timing and intensity of snowmelt processes on sea ice are key drivers determining the seasonal sea-ice energy and mass budgets. In the Arctic, satellite passive microwave and radar observations have revealed a trend towards an earlier snowmelt onset during the last decades, which is an important aspect of Arctic amplification and sea ice decline. Around Antarctica, snowmelt on perennial ice is weak and very different than in the Arctic, with most snow surviving the summer. Here we compile time series of snowmelt-onset dates on seasonal and perennial Antarctic sea ice from 1992 to 2014/15 using active microwave observations from European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1/2), Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) radar scatterometers. We define two snowmelt transition stages: A weak backscatter rise indicating the initial warming and destructive metamorphism of the snowpack (pre-melt), followed by a rapid backscatter rise indicating the onset of thaw-freeze cycles (snowmelt). Results show large interannual variability with an average pre-melt onset date of 29 November and melt onset of 10 December, respectively, on perennial ice, without any significant trends over the study period, consistent with the small trends of Antarctic sea ice extent. There was a latitudinal gradient from early snowmelt onsets in mid-November in the northern Weddell Sea to late (end-December) or even absent snowmelt conditions in the southern Weddell Sea. We show that QSCAT Ku-band (13.4 GHz signal frequency) derived pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates are earlier by 20 and 18 days, respectively, than ERS and ASCAT C-band (5.6 GHz) derived dates. This offset has been considered when constructing the time series. Snowmelt onset dates from passive microwave observations (37 GHz) are later by 14 and 6 days than those from the scatterometers, respectively. Based on these characteristic differences between melt onset dates observed by different microwave wavelengths, we developed a conceptual model which illustrates how the seasonal evolution of snow temperature profiles may affect different microwave bands with different penetration depths. These suggest that future multi-frequency active/passive microwave satellite missions could be used to resolve melt processes throughout the vertical snow column of thick snow on perennial Antarctic sea ice.

Description: This open access book presents the proceedings volume of the YOUMARES 8 conference, which took place in Kiel, Germany, in September 2017, supported by the German Association for Marine Sciences (DGM). The YOUMARES conference series is entirely bottom-up organized by and for YOUng MARine RESearchers. Qualified early career scientists moderated the scientific sessions during the conference and provided literature reviews on aspects of their research field. These reviews and the presenters’ conference abstracts are compiled here. Thus, this book discusses highly topical fields of marine research and aims to act as a source of knowledge and inspiration for further reading and research.

Description: Recent observations of near-surface soil temperatures over the circumpolar Arctic show accelerated warming of permafrost-affected soils. The availability of a comprehensive near-surface permafrost and active layer dataset is critical to better understanding climate impacts and to constraining permafrost thermal conditions and its spatial distribution in land system models. We compiled a soil temperature dataset from 72 monitoring stations in Alaska using data collected by the US Geological Survey, the National Park Service, and the University of Alaska Fairbanks permafrost monitoring networks. The array of monitoring stations spans a large range of latitudes from 60.9 to 71.3 N and elevations from near sea level to~ 1300 m, comprising tundra and boreal forest regions. This dataset consists of monthly ground temperatures at depths up to 1 m, volumetric soil water content, snow depth, and air temperature during 1997–2016. These data have been quality controlled in collection and processing. Meanwhile, we implemented data harmonization evaluation for the processed dataset. The final product (PF-AK, v0. 1) is available at the Arctic Data Center (https://doi. org/10.18739/A2KG55).

Description: Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model’s ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.

Description: We present here the first results, for the preindustrial and mid-Holocene climatological periods, of the newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the fully coupled Earth system model MPI-ESM, called hereafter MPI-ESM-wiso. The water stable isotopes H16O, H18O and HDO have been implemented into all components of the coupled model setup. The mid-Holocene provides the opportunity to evaluate the model response to changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation induced by different orbital forcing conditions. The results of our equilibrium simulations allow us to evaluate the performance of the isotopic model in simulating the spatial and temporal variations of water isotopes in the different compartments of the hydrological system for warm climates. For the preindustrial climate, MPI-ESM-wiso reproduces very well the observed spatial distribution of the isotopic content in precipitation linked to the spatial variations in temperature and precipitation rate. We also find a good model–data agreement with the observed distribution of isotopic composition in surface seawater but a bias with the presence of surface seawater that is too 18O-depleted in the Arctic Ocean. All these results are improved compared to the previous model version ECHAM5/MPIOM. The spatial relationships of water isotopic composition with temperature, precipitation rate and salinity are consistent with observational data. For the preindustrial climate, the interannual relationships of water isotopes with temperature and salinity are globally lower than the spatial ones, consistent with previous studies. Simulated results under mid-Holocene conditions are in fair agreement with the isotopic measurements from ice cores and continental speleothems. MPI-ESM-wiso simulates a decrease in the isotopic composition of precipitation from North Africa to the Tibetan Plateau via India due to the enhanced monsoons during the mid-Holocene. Over Greenland, our simulation indicates a higher isotopic composition of precipitation linked to higher summer temperature and a reduction in sea ice, shown by positive isotope–temperature gradient. For the Antarctic continent, the model simulates lower isotopic values over the East Antarctic plateau, linked to the lower temperatures during the mid-Holocene period, while similar or higher isotopic values are modeled over the rest of the continent. While variations of isotopic contents in precipitation over West Antarctica between mid-Holocene and preindustrial periods are partly controlled by changes in temperature, the transport of relatively 18O-rich water vapor near the coast to the western ice core sites could play a role in the final isotopic composition. So, more caution has to be taken about the reconstruction of past temperature variations during warm periods over this area. The coupling of such a model with an ice sheet model or the use of a zoomed grid centered on this region could help to better describe the role of the water vapor transport and sea ice around West Antarctica. The reconstruction of past salinity through isotopic content in sea surface waters can be complicated for regions with strong ocean dynamics, variations in sea ice regimes or significant changes in freshwater budget, giving an extremely variable relationship between the isotopic content and salinity of ocean surface waters over small spatial scales. These complicating factors demonstrate the complexity of interpreting water isotopes as past climate signals of warm periods like the mid-Holocene. A systematic isotope model intercomparison study for further insights on the model dependency of these results would be beneficial.

Description: Permafrost temperatures are increasing in Alaska due to climate change and in some cases permafrost is thawing and degrading. In areas where degradation has already occurred the effects can be dramatic, resulting in changing ecosystems, carbon release, and damage to infrastructure. However, in many areas we lack baseline data, such as subsurface temperatures, needed to assess future changes and potential risk areas. Besides climate, the physical properties of the vegetation cover and subsurface material have a major influence on the thermal state of permafrost. These properties are often directly related to the type of ecosystem overlaying permafrost. In this paper we demonstrate that classifying the landscape into general ecotypes is an effective way to scale up permafrost thermal data collected from field monitoring sites. Additionally, we find that within some ecotypes the absence of a moss layer is indicative of the absence of near-surface permafrost. As a proof of concept, we used the ground temperature data collected from the field sites to recode an ecotype land cover map into a map of mean annual ground temperature ranges at 1 m depth based on analysis and clustering of observed thermal regimes. The map should be useful for decision making with respect to land use and understanding how the landscape might change under future climate scenarios.

Description: Marine microbial biogeography has been studied intensively; however few studies address community variation across temporal and spatial scales simultaneously so far. Here we present a yearlong study investigating the dynamics of the free-living and particle-attached bacterioplankton community across a 100 km transect in the German Bight reaching from the Elbe estuary towards the open North Sea. Community composition was assessed using automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis and linked to environmental parameters applying multivariate statistical techniques. Results suggest that the spatial variation of the bacterioplankton community is defined by hydrographic current conditions, which separate the inner German Bight from the open North Sea and lead to pronounced differences in the coastal and offshore bacterioplankton community. However this spatial variation is overwhelmed by a strong temporal variation which is triggered by temperature as the main driving force throughout the whole transect. Variation in the free-living community was predominantly driven by temperature, whereas the particle-attached community exhibited stronger spatial variation patterns.

Description: Fast die Hälfte der gesamten weltweit durch Marikultur erzeugten Biomasse sind Makroalgen. Die unterschiedlich gelierenden Bestandteile ihrer Zellwände (Hydrokolloide) werden industriell genutzt. Offensichtlicher für den Verbraucher ist die Verwendung als Lebensmittel, z.B., die Rotalge Pyropia als Nori für Sushi. Es wird erklärt, warum diese Produkte teuer sind.

Description: Since the 1920s, E. superba is one of the best studied species in the Southern Ocean in terms of their general biology. The main driver for this research focus has been the fisheries’ requirements for stock forecasting and conservation measures. Nowadays this is joined by concerns over climate change effects and the requirement to take a more holistic over view to understand food web structures. So far, however, we do not have a clear understanding of the physiological response of krill and hence their adaptability to cope with ongoing environmental changes, caused by the anthropogenic carbon emissions. This is due to the extreme lack of intense studies on krill physiology, especially of their larval stages in relation to their seasonal environment. A major aim of this book chapter is on the one hand to summaries how physiological functions such as lipid accumulation and utilisation, metabolic activity and growth change with ontogeny and season and to demonstrate which environmental factors are the main drivers for seasonal variability of these functions in adult and larval krill. On the other hand, we draw the attention to the importance of photoperiod (day length) as an entrainment cue for endogenous rhythms and clocks in the life cycle of krill. Furthermore, we give an overview of the current knowledge on the impact of elevated seawater temperature and ocean acidification on krill.

Description: Over the last decade, our understanding of cli- mate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equi- librium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks complicate the interpretation of geolog- ical records as feedback strengths vary over time. In the geological past, the forcing timescales were different than at present, suggesting that the response may have behaved differently. Do these insights constrain the climate sensitiv- ity relevant for the present day? In this paper, we review the progress made in theoretical understanding of climate sensitivity and on the estimation of climate sensitivity from proxy records. Particular focus lies on the background state dependence of feedback processes and on the impact of tipping points on the climate system. We suggest how to further use palaeo data to advance our understanding of the currently ongoing climate change.

Description: Haptophyta are predominantly planktonic and phototrophic organisms that have their main distribution in marine environments worldwide. They are a major component of the microbial ecosystem, some form massive blooms and some are toxic. Haptophytes are significant players in the global carbonate cycle through photosynthesis and calcification. They are characterized by the haptonema, a third appendage used for attachment and food handling, two similar flagella, two golden-brown chloroplasts, and organic body scales that serve in species identification. Coccolithophores have calcified scales termed coccoliths. Phylogenetically Haptophyta form a well-defined group and are divided into two classes Pavlovophyceae and Coccolithophyceae (Prymnesiophyceae). Currently, about 330 species are described. Environmental DNA sequencing shows high haptophyte diversity in the marine pico- and nanoplankton, of which many likely represent novel species and lineages. Haptophyte diversity is believed to have peaked in the past and their presence is documented in the fossil record back to the Triassic, approximately 225 million years ago. Some biomolecules of haptophyte origin are extraordinarily resistant to decay and are thus used by geologists as sedimentary proxies of past climatic conditions.

Description: Underwater sound is ubiquitous throughout the world’s oceans. Evaluating its impact and relevance for the marine fauna is highly complex and hampered by a paucity of data, lack of understanding and ambiguity of terms. When comparing sound (an energetic pollutant) with substantial pollutants (chemical, biological or marine litter) two notable differences emerge: Firstly, while sound propagates instantaneously away from the source, it also ceases immediately within minutes of shutting off the source. Anthropogenic noise is hence per-se ephemeral, lending itself to a set of in-situ mitigation strategies unsuitable for mitigation of persistent pollutants. Secondly, while pollution with hazardous substances can readily be described quantitatively with few parameters (environmental concentration as the most important one), the description of sound and its impact on aquatic life is of much higher complexity, as to be evidenced by the issues multifaceted description following hereinafter.

Description: The maintenance of ion and pH homeostasis despite changes in ambient temperature is crucial for ectothermic organisms. Thermal sensitivity of Na+/K+ ATPase mRNA expression, protein expression and activity was determined in gills of North Sea cod (NC) and Northeastern Arctic cod (NEAC), acclimated for 6 weeks at 4 and 10 °C and compared to field samples of North Sea cod (sNC), acclimatized to early spring (4 °C) and summer (18 °C) conditions. The same analyses were conducted in gills of the confamiliar whiting, acclimated at 4 and 10 °C. Branchial Na+/K+ ATPase capacities remained uncompensated at functional and protein levels in NC and NEAC at both acclimation temperatures. Na+/K+ ATPase mRNA expression in NEAC acclimated at 10 °C was about twofold higher compared to NC, indicating some population-specific differentiation at this level. Lower Na+/K+ ATPase capacities in gills of warm-acclimatized sNC at common assay temperatures indicate thermal compensation between seasonal extremes, and post-translational modifications contributed to this mitigation at high assay temperature. Together, cod compensates Na+/K+ ATPase capacities on the warm edge of the thermal window and below 4 °C, respectively. In contrast, whiting Na+/K+ ATPase capacities were cold compensated at 4 °C, supported by 1.5-fold higher mRNA and protein expression. Besides, capacities were lower in whiting compared to NC and NEAC at optimum temperature, which may be advantageous in terms of reduced maintenance cost, but at temperatures ≤4 °C, compensation may represent an energy trade-off to maintain homeostasis. The species-specific response of gadid Na+/K+ ATPase indicates certain threshold temperatures beyond which compensation of the pump is elicited, possibly related to the different biogeography of these species.

Description: This study forms part II of two papers describing ECHAM6-FESOM, a newly established global climate model with a unique multi-resolution sea ice-ocean component. While part I deals with the model description and the mean climate state, here we examine the internal climate variability of the model under constant present-day (1990) conditions. We (1) assess the internal variations in the model in terms of objective variability performance indices, (2) analyze variations in global mean surface temperature and put them in context to variations in the observed record, with particular emphasis on the recent warming slowdown, (3) analyze and validate the most common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns, (4) diagnose the potential predictability of various climate indices, and (5) put the multi-resolution approach to the test by comparing two setups that differ only in oceanic resolution in the equatorial belt, where one ocean mesh keeps the coarse ~1° resolution applied in the adjacent open-ocean regions and the other mesh is gradually refined to ~0.25°. Objective variability performance indices show that, in the considered setups, ECHAM6-FESOM performs overall favourably compared to five well-established climate models. Internal variations of the global mean surface temperature in the model are consistent with observed fluctuations and suggest that the recent warming slowdown can be explained as a once-in-one-hundred-years event caused by internal climate variability; periods of strong cooling in the model (‘hiatus’ analogs) are mainly associated with ENSO-related variability and to a lesser degree also to PDO shifts, with the AMO playing a minor role. Common atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns are simulated largely consistent with their real counterparts. Typical deficits also found in other models at similar resolutions remain, in particular too weak non-seasonal variability of SSTs over large parts of the ocean and episodic periods of almost absent deep-water formation in the Labrador Sea, resulting in overestimated North Atlantic SST variability. Concerning the influence of locally (isotropically) increased resolution, the ENSO pattern and index statistics improve significantly with higher resolution around the equator, illustrating the potential of the novel unstructured-mesh method for global climate modeling.

Description: Exploitation of Southern Ocean marine resources began more than 200 years ago with the massive hunt for seals and whales. In the 1960s/70s, fisheries for finfish and krill entered Southern Ocean waters. Within a few years many fish populations were heavily overfished and dramatically depleted, and some of these stocks still did not recover. Today, fish stocks and fisheries activities are managed and monitored by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) which was established in 1982 to ensure sustainable exploitation and protection of the delicate marine ecosystem. Current target species include Mackerel icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari), Patagonian as well as Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides and D. mawsoni) and Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). Most of these species are vulnerable to overfishing due to slow growth, late age at maturity, and rather low fecundity. This vulnerability might increase, as Southern Ocean living communities are currently also faced with alterations of their environment due to climate change, such as increasing water temperatures and decreasing sea ice. Species, including the ones targetted by fisheries, are well-adapted to their particular environmental conditions and are believed to be highly sensitive to changes because of their cold-adapted physiology, their life history traits, and their direct or indirect dependence on sea ice. The species will be exposed to several stressors at the same time, and fishing pressure, direct abiotic forcing and changes mediated via the food web might act synergistically and result in significant population declines. In particular the strongly sea ice-dependent Antarctic krill, a key species in the food web, might be adversely affected. Fish species seems to have low tolerance towards higher water temperatures and may thus, in the long run, be replaced by lower latitude species.

Description: In climate and weather prediction models the near-surface turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum and related transfer coefficients are usually parametrized on the basis of Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST). To avoid iteration, required for the numerical solution of the MOST equations, many models apply parametrizations of the transfer coefficients based on an approach relating these coefficients to the bulk Richardson number Rib.However, the parametrizations that are presently used in most climate models are valid only for weaker stability and larger surface roughnesses than those documented during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean campaign (SHEBA). The latter delivered a well-accepted set of turbulence data in the stable surface layer over polar sea-ice. Using stability functions based on the SHEBA data, we solve the MOST equations applying a new semi-analytic approach that results in transfer coefficients as a function of Rib and roughness lengths for momentum and heat. It is shown that the new coefficients reproduce the coefficients obtained by the numerical iterative method with a good accuracy in the most relevant range of stability and roughness lengths. For small Rib , the new bulk transfer coefficients are similar to the traditional coefficients, but for large Ri b they are much smaller than currently used coefficients. Finally, a possible adjustment of the latter and the implementation of the new proposed parametrizations in models are discussed.

Description: Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i) a temperature scaling based on the δ18O–temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii) a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii) a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000 years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data–model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate.

Description: Extremereignisse zeigen am augenfälligsten, wie verletzlich Deutschland gegenüber dem Klima und seinen Veränderungen ist. Betrachtet man Extremereignisse genauer, verursachten in den vergangenen 20 Jahren Hochwasser die größten Schäden (Ernst Rauch, Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, persönliche Mitteilung). In der Wissenschaft herrscht Einigkeit darüber, dass sich der zukünftige globale Wasserkreislauf durch steigende atmosphärische Treibhausgaskonzentrationen verändern wird (Kirtman et al. 2013). Doch selbst bei der vergleichsweise guten Datenlage für Deutschland ist es unsicher, ob sich die Auftrittsrate – die Anzahl an Ereignissen pro Jahr – von Hochwasser verändert (Trend), wie stark eventuell vorliegende Trends sind und wie stark der Klimawandel ursächlich einwirkt. Diese Zuschreibung der Ursachen wird als Attribution bezeichnet. Gleichzeitig bilden diese Informationen eine wichtige Grundlage für Entscheidungsträger, die über Mitigations- und Anpassungsstrategien befinden. Die damit verbundenen Unsicherheiten müssen daher möglichst transparent kommuniziert werden, um einen Umgang damit zu ermöglichen. Ihre Quellen und Ausmaße werden im Folgenden am Beispiel der Elbehochwasser ausführlich illustriert. Für die Elbe ist der Wissensstand aufgrund der guten Datenqualität und umfangreicher wissenschaftlicher Untersuchungen relativ hoch. Für andere Flüsse (▶ Kap. 10) und andere Ereignistypen sind die Unsicherheiten zum Teil wesentlich größer.

Description: The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ∼3Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ∼6ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ∼3Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.

Description: Coastal systems partially surrounded by land such as coastal embayments, estuaries and fjords have characteristics that affect the development of harmful algal blooms. Among these, shallow water depths and geophysical constraints from surrounding land masses favour stronger links between the water column and bottom sediments. Typical circulation patterns (e.g., in estuaries) can limit the exchange with offshore waters and favour cell retention. Sub-mesoscale and high-frequency processes are particularly important physical factors that influence pattern and persistence of HABs in coastal systems. Coupling with benthic nutrient fluxes or seed banks from the bottom is enhanced as the degree of physical robustness of coastal systems decreases. The links between bottom cyst distribution patterns and intensity or extension of HABs are still not fully understood. The importance of intra-specific diversity has been highlighted for many HAB species but tools are needed to assist in situ identification of these various life cycle stages. Alternative metabolic strategies, such as mixotrophy or reliance on organic nutrients and allelochemically mediated species interactions, can play a critical role in the development of HA blooms particularly in semi-confined coastal environments. Future work should address the influence of climate change and of coastal aquaculture on blooms of these harmful species in coastal environments.

Description: An integrative inventory of the amphipod scavenging fauna (Lysianassoidea), combining morphological identifications with DNA barcoding, is provided here for the Filchner area situated in the south-eastern Weddell Sea. Over 4400 lysianassoids were investigated for species richness and relative abundances, covering 20 different stations and using different sampling devices, including the southernmost baited traps deployed so far (76°S). High species richness was observed: 29 morphospecies of which 5 were new to science. Molecular species delimitation methods were carried out with 109 cytochrome c oxidase I gene (COI) sequences obtained during this study as well as sequences from specimens sampled in other Antarctic regions. These distance-based analyses (trees and the Automatic Barcode Gap Discovery method) indicated the presence of 42 lineages; for 4 species, several (cryptic) lineages were found. More than 96% of the lysianassoids collected with baited traps belonged to the species Orchomenella pinguides s. l. The diversity of the amphipod scavenger guild in this ice-bound ecosystem of the Weddell Sea is discussed in the light of bottom–up selective forces. In this southernmost part of the Weddell Sea, harbouring spawning and nursery grounds for silverfish and icefishes, abundant fish and mammalian food falls are likely to represent the major food for scavengers. Finally, the importance of biodiversity surveys in the context of the establishment of a marine protected area in this region (Weddell Sea MPA) is highlighted and how future studies can contribute to a better understanding the ecological role of scavengers in this system is discussed.

Description: In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational period (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by widespread warming along the coastal areas as well as in the interior of the Antarctic continent. This exceptional event occurred along with a strong negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the moistest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian Ocean, the Ross Sea and the Weddell Sea. In October 2016, the positive anomalies of the totally integrated water vapor (IWV) and 2 m air temperature (T2m) over the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, Bellingshausen Sea and southern part of Ross Sea were unprecedented in the last 39 years. In October and November 2016, when the largest magnitude of negative daily sea ice concentration anomalies was observed, repeated episodes of poleward advection of warm and moist air took place. These results suggest the importance of moist and warm air intrusions into the Antarctic region as one of the main contributors to this exceptional sea ice retreat event.

Description: To resolve the mechanisms behind the major climate reorganisation which occurred between 0.9 and 1.2Ma, the recovery of a suitable 1.5 million-year-old ice core is fundamental. The quest for such an Oldest Ice core requires a number of key boundary conditions, of which the poorly known basal geothermal heat flux (GHF) is lacking. We use a transient thermodynamical 1D vertical model that solves for the rate of change of temperature in the vertical, with surface temperature and modelled GHF as boundary conditions. For each point on the ice sheet, the model is forced with variations in atmospheric conditions over the last 2Ma, and modelled ice-thickness variations. The process is repeated for a range of GHF values to determine the value of GHF that marks the limit between frozen and melting conditions over the whole ice sheet, taking into account 2Ma of climate history. These threshold values of GHF are statistically compared to existing GHF data sets. The new probabilistic GHF fields obtained for the ice sheet thus provide the missing boundary conditions in the search for Oldest Ice. High spatial resolution radar data are examined locally in the Dome Fuji and Dome C regions, as these represent the ice core community's primary drilling sites. GHF, bedrock variability, ice thickness and other essential criteria combined highlight a dozen major potential Oldest Ice sites in the vicinity of Dome Fuji and Dome C, where GHF allows for Oldest Ice.

Description: Polar ice core water isotope records are commonly used to infer past changes in Antarctic temperature, motivating an improved understanding and quantification of the temporal relationship between δ18O and temperature. This can be achieved using simulations performed by atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes. Here, we evaluate the skills of the high-resolution water-isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso (the European Centre Hamburg Model) nudged to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis using simulations covering the period 1960–2013 over the Antarctic continent. We compare model outputs with field data, first with a focus on regional climate variables and second on water stable isotopes, using our updated dataset of water stable isotope measurements from precipitation, snow, and firn–ice core samples. ECHAM5-wiso simulates a large increase in temperature from 1978 to 1979, possibly caused by a discontinuity in the European Reanalyses (ERA) linked to the assimilation of remote sensing data starting in 1979. Although some model–data mismatches are observed, the (precipitation minus evaporation) outputs are found to be realistic products for surface mass balance. A warm model bias over central East Antarctica and a cold model bias over coastal regions explain first-order δ18O model biases by too strong isotopic depletion on coastal areas and underestimated depletion inland. At the second order, despite these biases, ECHAM5-wiso correctly captures the observed spatial patterns of deuterium excess. The results of model–data comparisons for the inter-annual δ18O standard deviation difer when using precipitation or ice core data. Further studies should explore the importance of deposition and post-deposition processes affecting ice core signals and not resolved in the model. These results build trust in the use of ECHAM5-wiso outputs to investigate the spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual δ18O–temperature relationships. We thus make the first Antarctica-wide synthesis of prior results. First, we show that local spatial or seasonal slopes are not a correct surrogate for inter-annual temporal slopes, leading to the conclusion that the same isotope–temperature slope cannot be applied for the climatic interpretation of Antarctic ice core for all timescales. Finally, we explore the phasing between the seasonal cycles of deuterium excess and δ18O as a source of information on changes in moisture sources affecting the δ18O–temperature relationship. The few available records and ECHAM5-wiso show different phase relationships in coastal, intermediate, and central regions. This work evaluates the use of the ECHAM5-wiso model as a tool for the investigation of water stable isotopes in Antarctic precipitation and calls for extended studies to improve our understanding of such proxies.

Description: The effect of external forcings on atmospheric circulation is debated. Due to the short observational period, the analysis of the role of external forcings is hampered, making it difficult to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric circulation to external forcings, as well as persistence of the effects. In observations, the average response to tropical volcanic eruptions is a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the following winter. However, past major tropical eruptions exceeding the magnitude of eruptions during the instrumental era could have had more lasting effects. Decadal NAO variability has been suggested to follow the 11-year solar cycle, and linkages have been made between grand solar minima and negative NAO. However, the solar link to NAO found by modeling studies is not unequivocally supported by reconstructions, and is not consistently present in observations for the 20th century. Here we present a reconstruction of atmospheric winter circulation for the North Atlantic region covering the period 1241–1970 CE. Based on seasonally resolved Greenland ice core records and a 1200-year-long simulation with an isotope-enabled climate model, we reconstruct sea level pressure and temperature by matching the spatiotemporal variability in the modeled isotopic composition to that of the ice cores. This method allows us to capture the primary (NAO) and secondary mode (Eastern Atlantic Pattern) of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, while, contrary to previous reconstructions, preserving the amplitude of observed year-to-year atmospheric variability. Our results show five winters of positive NAO on average following major tropical volcanic eruptions, which is more persistent than previously suggested. In response to decadal minima of solar activity we find a high-pressure anomaly over northern Europe, while a reinforced opposite response in pressure emerges with a 5-year time lag. On centennial timescales we observe a similar response of circulation as for the 5-year time-lagged response, with a high-pressure anomaly across North America and south of Greenland. This response to solar forcing is correlated to the second mode of atmospheric circulation, the Eastern Atlantic Pattern. The response could be due to an increase in blocking frequency, possibly linked to a weakening of the subpolar gyre. The long-term anomalies of temperature during solar minima shows cooling across Greenland, Iceland and western Europe, resembling the cooling pattern during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850 CE). While our results show significant correlation between solar forcing and the secondary circulation pattern on decadal (r = 0.29, p 〈 0.01) and centennial timescales (r = 0.6, p 〈 0.01), we find no consistent relationship between solar forcing and NAO. We conclude that solar and volcanic forcing impacts different modes of our reconstructed atmospheric circulation, which can aid in separating the regional effects of forcings and understanding the underlying mechanisms.

Description: New developments and applications of autonomous Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) technology in polar regions have come at time of increased interest in the Arctic and Antarctic due to predictions of global climate change. Information gained with autonomous PAM systems has provided new information on polar pinniped communication, mating systems, distribution, and the relationships between these species and their environment. Although new discoveries continue to be made, there is still much that remains to be learned about these species. This chapter is organized into a review of species specifi c information known prior to 2000, case studies describing new knowledge gained through the use of autonomous PAM systems since 2000, and future projection on how autonomous PAM systems can be used to address and fi ll data gaps related to polar pinnipeds.

Description: In this chapter, the effects of temperature change—as a main aspect of climate change—on marine biodiversity are assessed. Starting from a general discussion of species responses to temperature, the chapter presents how species respond to warming. These responses comprise adaptation and phenotypic plasticity as well as range shifts. The observed range shifts show more rapid shifts at the poleward range edge than at the equator-near edge, which probably reflects more rapid immigration than extinction in a warming world. A third avenue of changing biodiversity is change in species interactions, which can be altered by temporal and spatial shifts in interacting species. We then compare the potential changes in biodiversity to actual trends recently addressed in empirical synthesis work on local marine biodiversity, which lead to conceptual issues in quantifying the degree of biodiversity change. Finally we assess how climate change impacts the protection of marine environments.

Description: In fall 1995, during a survey in Abrolhos coral reef system (southwestern Atlantic, Brazil), significant densities (143–6174 cells L-1) of small thecate dinoflagellates were detected. Analysis of this material in scanning and transmission electron microscopy confirmed the presence of four taxa assigned to the potentially toxic genus Azadinium: A. dexteroporum Percopo et Zingone, A. luciferelloides Tillmann et Akselman, A. cf. polongum Tillmann and Azadinium sp. The latter taxon showed external morphological features quite distinct from any Azadinium taxon yet described, but its formal description as a new species depends on more detailed analysis. Species of Azadinium have never been confirmed in Brazilian waters until now, although the toxins produced by these dinoflagellates, the azaspiracids, have been detected in Brazilian southern coast without recognition of their producing organisms. The highest densities of Azadinium spp. occurred at stations south of and over the Abrolhos Bank, which receive higher nutrient concentrations due to upwelling of deep and nutrient-rich water masses.

Description: North Pacific Intermediate water (NPIW) is a dominant water mass controlling ∼400-1200m depth North Pacific Ocean, meanwhile there is a cessation of North Pacific deep water (NPDW) formation in in modern observations. In contrast, paleoceanographic evidences have recorded NPDW formations during last glacial periods. This sug- gests either a rapid or gradual shutting down process of NPDW formation during the last deglaciation. Here, we use an Earth System Model to diagnose the physical and corresponding biogeochemical evolutions in the North Pacific Ocean before and after the last deglaciation, as well as potential changes during rapid climate shifts of the last deglaciation. Linked to different background climate conditions and varying Atlantic Meridional Over- turning Circulation states, we characterize the modelled NPIW and NPDW changes and builds up linkages to marine records. Our results further develop our understanding about the deglacial switch from NPDW to modern NPIW-only formation process.

Description: This study focusses on the last glacial–deglacial–Holocene spatial and temporal variability in sea-ice cover based on organic geochemical analyses of marine sediment cores from the subarctic Pacific and the Bering Sea. By means of the sea-ice proxy “IP25” and phytoplankton-derived biomarkers (specific sterols and alkenones), we reconstruct the spring sea-ice conditions, (summer) sea-surface temperature (SST) and primary productivity, respectively. The large variability of sea ice was explained by a combination of local and global factors, such as solar insolation, global climate anomalies and sea-level changes controlling the oceanographic circulation and water mass exchange between the subarctic Pacific and the Bering Sea. During the Last Glacial Maximum, extensive sea-ice cover prevailed over large part of the subarctic Pacific and the Bering Sea. The following deglaciation is characterized by a rapid sea-ice advance and retreat. During cold periods (Heinrich Stadial 1 and Younger Dryas) seasonal sea-ice cover generally coincided with low alkenone SSTs and low primary productivity. Conversely, during warmer intervals (Bølling/Allerød, Early Holocene) reduced sea-ice or ice-free conditions prevailed in the study area. At the northern Bering Sea continental shelf a late-Early/Mid Holocene shift to marginal sea-ice conditions is in line with the simultaneous wide-spread sea-ice recovery observed in the other Arctic marginal seas and is likely initiated by the lower Northern Hemisphere insolation and surface-water cooling.

Description: A new quasi-analytical mixed-layer model is formulated describing the evolution of the convective atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) during cold-air outbreaks (CAO) over polar oceans downstream of the marginal sea-ice zones. The new model is superior to previous ones since it predicts not only temperature and mixed-layer height but also the height-averaged horizontal wind components. Results of the mixed-layer model are compared with dropsonde and aircraft observations carried out during several CAOs over the Fram Strait and also with results of a 3D non-hydrostatic (NH3D) model. It is shown that the mixed-layer model reproduces well the observed ABL height, temperature, low-level baroclinicity and its influence on the ABL wind speed. The mixed-layer model underestimates the observed ABL temperature only by about 10 %, most likely due to the neglect of condensation and subsidence. The comparison of the mixed-layer and NH3D model results shows good agreement with respect to wind speed including the formation of wind-speed maxima close to the ice edge. It is concluded that baroclinicity within the ABL governs the structure of the wind field while the baroclinicity above the ABL is important in reproducing the wind speed. It is shown that the baroclinicity in the ABL is strongest close to the ice edge and slowly decays further downwind. Analytical solutions demonstrate that the e-folding distance of this decay is the same as for the decay of the difference between the surface temperature of open water and of the mixed-layer temperature. This distance characterizing cold-air mass transformation ranges from 450 to 850 km for high-latitude CAOs.

Description: The key role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) on the seasonal cycle of the tropical Atlantic is investigated with a regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean model for two different coupled domains. Both domains include the equatorial Atlantic and a large portion of the northern tropical Atlantic, but one extends southward, and the other northwestward. The SAA is simulated as internal model variability in the former, and is prescribed as external forcing in the latter. In the first case, the model shows significant warm biases in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Angola-Benguela front zone. If the SAA is externally prescribed, these biases are substantially reduced. The biases are both of oceanic and atmospheric origin, and are influenced by ocean–atmosphere interactions in coupled runs. The strong SST austral summer biases are associated with a weaker SAA, which weakens the winds over the southeastern tropical Atlantic, deepens the thermocline and prevents the local coastal upwelling of colder water. The biases in the basins interior in this season could be related to the advection and eddy transport of the coastal warm anomalies. In winter, the deeper thermocline and atmospheric fluxes are probably the main biases sources. Biases in incoming solar radiation and thus cloudiness seem to be a secondary effect only observed in austral winter. We conclude that the external prescription of the SAA south of 20°S improves the simulation of the seasonal cycle over the tropical Atlantic, revealing the fundamental role of this anticyclone in shaping the climate over this region.

Description: Permafrost presence is determined by a complex interaction of climatic, topographic, and ecological conditions operating over long time scales. In particular, vegetation and organic layer characteristics may act to protect permafrost in regions with a mean annual air temperature (MAAT) above 0°C. In this study, we document the presence of residual permafrost plateaus in the western Kenai Peninsula lowlands of south-central Alaska, a region with a MAAT of 1.5+/-1 °C (1981–2010). Continuous ground temperature measurements between 16 September 2012 and 15 September 2015, using calibrated thermistor strings, documented the presence of warm permafrost (-0.04 to -0.08 °C). Field measurements (probing) on several plateau features during the fall of 2015 showed that the depth to the permafrost table averaged 1.48m but at some locations was as shallow as 0.53 m. Late winter surveys (augering, coring, and GPR) in 2016 showed that the average seasonally frozen ground thickness was 0.45 m, overlying a talik above the permafrost table. Measured permafrost thickness ranged from 0.33 to 〉6.90 m. Manual interpretation of historic aerial photography acquired in 1950 indicates that residual permafrost plateaus covered 920 ha as mapped across portions of four wetland complexes encompassing 4810 ha. However, between 1950 and ca. 2010, permafrost plateau extent decreased by 60.0 %, with lateral feature degradation accounting for 85.0% of the reduction in area. Permafrost loss on the Kenai Peninsula is likely associated with a warming climate, wildfires that remove the protective forest and organic layer cover, groundwater flow at depth, and lateral heat transfer from wetland surface waters in the summer. Better understanding the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem-protected permafrost is critical for mapping and predicting future permafrost extent and degradation across all permafrost regions that are currently warming. Further work should focus on reconstructing permafrost history in south-central Alaska as well as additional contemporary observations of these ecosystem-protected permafrost sites south of the regions with relatively stable permafrost.

Description: Amphipoda from the superfamily Lysianassoidea Dana, 1849 play an important role in Southern Ocean benthic food webs due to their high biomass, abundance and predominantly scavenging mode of feeding. Our knowledge on the lysianassoid fauna, even in well-studied areas of the Western Antarctic Peninsula, is incomplete. Here we report the findings of an integrated study of lysianassoid amphipods of Potter Cove, King George Island/Isla 25 de Mayo (KGI), combining morphological and molecular species identification (COI barcoding) methods, investigating more than 41,000 specimens from baited traps. For comparison, 2,039 specimens from the adjacent Marian Cove were analysed. Ten lysianassoid species were recorded in the deeper outer Potter Cove, whereas the inner cove (〈50 m) was dominated by a single species, Cheirimedon femoratus Pfeffer, 1888 (99.44% relative abundance). It is hypothesised that the impoverished lysianassoid fauna inside the meltwater-influenced inner cove represents a model for future conditions along the Western Antarctic Peninsula under conditions of increased glacial melting. Abyssorchomene charcoti (Chevreux, 1912) and Orchomenella pinguides Walker, 1903 were recorded in KGI waters for the first time. Furthermore, one new lysianassoid amphipod species of the genus Orchomenella Sars, 1890 is described: Orchomenella infinita sp. n. Seefeldt, 2017. First-time DNA barcode data was established for Cheirimedon femoratus, Hippomedon kergueleni Miers, 1875, Orchomenella rotundifrons K.H. Barnard, 1932 and Orchomenella infinita sp. n.

Description: The Arctic represents an extreme habitat for phototrophic algae due to long periods of darkness caused by the polar night (~4 months darkness). Benthic diatoms, which dominate microphytobenthic communities in shallow water regions, can survive this dark period, but the underlying physiological and biochemical mechanisms are not well understood. One of the potential mechanisms for long-term dark survival is the utilisation of stored energy products in combination with a reduced basic metabolism. In recent years, water temperatures in the Arctic increased due to an ongoing global warming. Higher temperatures could enhance the cellular energy requirements for the maintenance metabolism during darkness and, therefore, accelerate the consumption of lipid reserves. In this study, we investigated the macromolecular ratios and the lipid content and composition of Navicula cf. perminuta Grunow, an Arctic benthic diatom isolated from the microphytobenthos of Adventfjorden (Svalbard, Norway), over a dark period of 8 weeks at two different temperatures (0 and 7 °C). The results demonstrate that N. perminuta uses the stored lipid compound triacylglycerol (TAG) during prolonged dark periods, but also the pool of free fatty acids (FFA). Under the enhanced temperature of 7 °C, the lipid resources were used significantly faster than at 0 °C, which could consequently lead to a depletion of this energy reserves before the end of the polar night. On the other hand, the membrane building phospho- and glycolipids remained unchanged during the 8 weeks darkness, indicating still intact thylakoid membranes. These results explain the shorter survival times of polar diatoms with increasing water temperatures during prolonged dark periods.

Description: The Pernicana Fault (PF) is the main structural element of Mt Etna and the northern boundary of a section sliding to the southeast. Observed ground motion records in the damage zone of the PF show strong variations of directional resonance in the horizontal plane. The observed resonance directions exhibit an abrupt rotation of azimuth by about 30◦ across the fault, varying from N166◦ on the north side to N139◦ on the south. We interpret the directional resonance observations in terms of changes in the kinematics and deformation fields on the opposite sides of the fault. The northern side is affected primarily by the left-lateral strike-slip movement, whereas the southern side, that is subjected also to sliding, is under a dominant extensional stress regime. Brittle deformation models based on the observed kinematic field predict different sets of fractures on the opposite sides of the fault: synthetic cleavages and extensional fractures are expected to dominate in the northern and southern sides, respectively. These two fracture fields have different orientations (N74◦ and N42◦, respectively) and both show a near-orthogonal relation (∼88◦ in the northern sector and ∼83◦ to the south) with the azimuth of the observed directional resonance. We conclude that the direction of the largest resonance motions is sensitive to and has transversal relationship with the dominant fracture orientation. The directional amplification is inferred to be produced by stiffness anisotropy of the fault damage zone, with larger seismic motions normal to the fractures.

Description: Published

Description: 986–996

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: We consider a seismicity forecast experiment conducted during the last 4 yr. At the beginning of each year, three models make a 1-yr forecast of the distribution of large earthquakes everywhere on the Earth. The forecasts are generated and the observations are collected in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We apply CSEP likelihood measures of consistency and comparison to see how well the forecasts match the observations, and we compare results from some intuitive reference models. These results illustrate some undesirable properties of the consistency tests: the tests can be extremely sensitive to only a few earthquakes, and yet insensitive to seemingly obvious flaws—a na ̈ıve hypothesis that large earthquakes are equally likely everywhere is not always rejected. The results also suggest that one should check the assumptions of the so-called T and W comparison tests, and we illustrate some methods to do so. As an extension of model assessment, we explore strategies to combine forecasts, and we discuss the implications for operational earthquake forecasting. Finally, we make suggestions for the next generation of global seismicity forecast experiments.

Description: Published

Description: 422-431

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: The M ∼ 7 1915 Fucino (Central Italy) earthquake represents one of the most destructive seismic events ever occurred in the Italian Peninsula. Several seismogenic faults have been proposed in the past decades as the source of the earthquake by means of different approaches and techniques that lead to a variety of speculations about the source mechanism and the fault location, often contrasting with one another. The 1915 earthquake produced a remarkable data set of 73 coseismic hydrological changes in the near and intermediate field that consist in variation of the flow of streams and springs, liquefaction, rise of water temperature and turbidity. In this paper, we study the coseismic water level changes induced by the 1915 earthquake in the near field to provide convincing clues on the geometry of the earthquake causative fault. We model the coseismic strain field induced by seventeen individual faults proposed through different approaches, and compare its pattern with the distribution of streamflow changes. We find: (i) clues on the most probable geometry of the earthquake causative fault. Best fits between modelled deformation and observed data are displayed by sources (derived by geological or seismological data) that share several distinctive features, as they are ∼135◦-striking, SW-dipping, 25–30-km-long normal faults located along the eastern side of the Fucino basin. These data point to the Serrone Fault and the Parasano Fault as the most likely causative structures and support the hypothesis that the coseismic ruptures observed in the field represented primary surface faulting. On the contrary, our calculations show that the Pescina Fault and the Ventrino Fault are secondary faults from the perspective of the hydrological response. Finally, one of the best scoring potential sources (from geological data) is a multifaulting system that considers the presence, in the central-western part of the basin, of fault splays synthetic and antithetic to the main seismogenic structures; therefore, we infer for these splays a possible active involvement in a 1915-like seismogenic process; (ii) evidence against a number of seismogenic structures that were previously associated with the earthquake. In particular, the plots of coseismic strain induced by sources uniquely derived by macroseismic or geodetic data prove to be inconsistent with the polarities of the hydrological signatures. Also, sources mainly characterized by reverse faulting and/or by right-lateral strike-slip component are discarded and (iii) as a final remark, we maintain that the study of the hydrological signatures of earthquake strain can offer an alternative tool in the investigation of the historical seismicity, to estimate the focal mechanism of major earthquakes capable of giving rise to a consistent data set of hydrological data.

Description: Published

Description: 1374-1388

Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Balanced information and education are fundamental prerequisites for risk prevention and preparedness. Among others, children embody our best chance to implant appropriate behaviors that will be recalled during hazardous situations and to involve adults according to a knowledge chain reaction. In this work, scientists challenge their communication skills to built a set of hands-on and learn-by-play based laboratory activities, for primary and secondary schools, addressing three major issues: (1) the location of earthquakes and volcanoes on Earth; (2) earthquakes and eruptions mechanisms; (3) earthquakes unpredictability. Students are asked to place volcanoes and earthquakes epicenters (issue 1) on a wooden plate puzzle according to Plate dynamics. To addresses eruption mechanisms (issue 2) and related hazard, we use backing soda forced blowing out from a volcano vent and suggest that a pyroclastic flow is fast, it can spread over a large area and raise high up to the stratosphere. Earthquake mechanisms (issue 2) are discussed describing the energy buildup, release, and transfer, using a wooden sticks bendand- break analogy. The display of acoustic waves caused by the breakage in different situations allows understanding of both the rupture energy and the wave attenuation. Earthquakes occurrence (issue 3) is addressed using steadily pulled blocks sliding on a frictional surface, where pins simulate asperities. These activities were tested, involving thousands of students. Discussions with students and teachers and the analysis of the answers to specific questionnaires gave us confidence that we proposed proper tools to raise risk awareness

Description: Published

Description: 89-93

Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio

Description: restricted

Description: On October 25th 2011 a devastating flood hit the Vara and Magra valleys in Italy and left an unforgettable scratch in the inhabitants’ minds. Cloudy with a Chance of ideas! (Piovono idee!) is an active journey of discovery and training on hydrogeological risk and climate change. Land preservation and safety of people living on it are issues, which we would like to help citizens get perception about, in order to instill awareness on the actions that can be taken towards risk mitigation. Cloudy with a Chance of ideas! stemmed from this belief, and it is the result of a collaborative planning in which primary and secondary school students, living within cities heavily hit by the flood, took actively part. Children were helped by experts and scientists to build an exhibition devoted to hydrogeological risk. Here interactive workspaces, games and educational laboratories, allow visitors explore concepts, phenomena and their consequences on land and inhabitants. Issues are addressed from a daily actions perspective, where everybody might make the difference towards sustainability and trigger good practices on natural hazards risk reduction.

Description: Published

Description: 121-124

Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani

Description: restricted

Description: Macroseismic intensities are the only available data for most historical earthquakes and often represent the unique source of information for crucial events in the definition of seismic hazard. In this paper, we attempt at getting insight into source characteristics by reproducing the observed intensity field. As a test case, we study the source of 1908 Messina Straits earthquake ( M W = 7.1), by testing three distinct fault models deduced from the analysis of geodeticdata.Startingfromthestaticslipdistribution,wedevelop kinematicsourcemodelsfor the investigated fault and compute full waveform synthetic seismograms in a 1-D structural model, also accounting for anelastic attenuation. Then, we convert both computed peak- ground acceleration (PGA) and peak-ground velocity (PGV) to macroseismic intensity at 100 selected sites, by means of specific empirical relations for the Italian region. By comparing the original data separately with PGA- and PGV-based intensity fields, we discriminate among the tested faults and determine the best values for the investigated kinematic parameters of the source. We also perform a misfit analysis for the best source model, in order to investigate the dependence of the results on the selected parametrization. The results of the analysis indicate that among the tested models, the one characterized by an east-dipping fault, with strike- oriented NS slightly rotated clockwise, better explains the observed macroseismic field of the 1908 Messina Straits earthquake. Besides, the fracture nucleated at the southern end of the fault and ruptured northward, producing considerable directivity effects. This is in agreement with the published results obtained from the investigation of the historical seismograms. We alsodeterminerealisticvalues fortherupturevelocityand therise-time.Ourstudyconfirms the greatpotentialofthemacroseismicdata,demonstratingthattheycontainenoughinformationto constrain important characteristics of the fault, which can be retrieved by using complex source models and computing complete wavefield. Moreover, we also show that the simultaneous comparison of both PGA- and PGV-based synthetic macroseismic fields with the original intensities provides tighter constraints for discriminating among different source models, with respect to what attainable from each of them

Description: Published

Description: 164-173

Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Gravity and height changes, reflecting magma accumulation in subsurface chambers, are evaluated using Finite Element models in order to resolve controversial relationships observed in some volcanic areas. When significant gravity changes occur without any significant deformation, or vice versa, it is often difficult, if not impossible, to jointly explain the observations using the popular Mogi model. Here we explore whether these discrepancies can be explained by magma compressibility and source geometry effects. Compression of resident magma and expansion of the chamber wall act concurrently to accommodate newly added magma. Gravity-height ratios are found to mainly depend on: (i) geometry of the sources, which control the volume expansion of the chamber, (ii) magma compressibility, which affects the contraction of the magma resident in the chamber, and (iii) depth of the sources. Our numerical results show that, when magma compressibility and non-spherical sources are taken into account, significant gravity variations can, indeed, be successfully reconciled with negligible height changes. This may be the case at Etna volcano, where gravity changes (about 40 miuGal) without any significant deformation (below 5 cm) were observed during the 1994-1995 inflation period. The numerical results point to the accumulation of a 1.4x10^10 kg mass into an elongated source simulating a shallow storage region supplying the summit craters.

Description: Published

Description: 164-173

Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted