ALBERT

Description: The article presents the results of the quantitative statistical analyses of the first world catalog of earthquake-rotated objects (EROs), presented in Part I of the study ( Cucci et al. , 2016 ). We searched for possible relations between the epicentral distance of EROs occurrence and a number of customary seismological observables, such as magnitude, intensity, focal mechanism, etc. The reliability of results is quantitatively checked by means of some suitable statistical tests. We found strong evidence of a clear log–linear dependence of the epicentral distance, to which an ERO can be observed, on the magnitude M w of the source event. We note that the probability of observing EROs near the epicentral area ( D 〈10 km) inversely decreases with the earthquake magnitude and that, for large earthquakes ( M w 8+), this probability remains significant (around 30%) beyond 100 km from the epicenter. Unexpectedly, we did not find significant relations between EROs occurrence and epicentral intensity, possibly because of high dispersion of intensity values. The data analyzed in the present study identifies intensity 6 as the lowest intensity for rotation occurrence; this is different from the main macroseismic scales, which indicate the EROs as a diagnostic of larger intensity degrees. This outcome could suggest the need for revision and for updating the diagnostics indicated in the intensity scales. As for the focal mechanisms of the seismic events, we found higher probabilities of observing rotations beyond 10 km distance from the epicenter of a thrust-faulting earthquake than for a normal-faulting earthquake. This probability reverses beyond 50 km distance, especially for high-magnitude seismic events. Our results indicate interesting insights to potential end users of the EROs catalog in the fields of historical seismology and earthquake engineering.

Description: We present the first world catalog of earthquake-rotated objects (EROs). The catalog is composed of 2053 EROs originating during 184 earthquakes that occurred between 1349 and 2014. The catalog is organized into two tables that contain information about the source earthquakes and about the observed EROs, respectively. EROs are observed to occur following earthquakes in the M w  4.0–8.3 range at localities marked by intensities in the interval I=3.5 (Medvedev–Sponhauer–Karnik [MSK] scale) to I=11 (modified Mercalli intensity [MMI] scale) and at epicentral distances as far as 445 km. We also present some qualitative analyses of the basic details of the catalog with respect to the parameters of the two data tables. These, along with the most complete quantitative analyses of the catalog presented in Part II of the study ( Lombardi et al. , 2016 ), provide interesting clues to address possible relations between EROs occurrence and a number of customary seismological observables, such as magnitude, intensity, epicentral distance, and fault orientation. Finally, we suggest that the utilization of the present catalog will contribute to a better understanding of the mechanism that induces the EROs occurrence and ultimately to provide important insights into the applications for earthquake engineering. Online Material: Table of parameters and information associated with the 2053 observations of earthquake-rotated objects.

Description: The recent Mw 6.3 destructive L’Aquila earthquake has further stimulated the improvement of the Italian operational earthquake forecasting capability at different time intervals. Here, we describe a medium-term (10-year) forecast model for Mw≥5.5 earthquakes in Italy that aims at opening new possibilities for risk mitigation purposes. While a longer forecast yielded by the national seismic-hazard map is the primary component in establishing the building code, a medium-term earthquake forecast model may be useful to prioritize additional risk mitigation strategies such as the retrofitting of vulnerable structures. In particular, we have developed an earthquake occurrence model for a 10-year forecast that consists of a weighted average of time-independent and different types of available time-dependent models, based on seismotectonic zonations and regular grids. The inclusion of time-dependent models marks a difference with the earthquake occurrence model of the national seismic-hazard map, and it is motivated by the fact that, at the 10-year scale, the contribution of time-dependency in the earthquake occurrence process may play a major role. The models are assembled through a simple averaging scheme whereby each model is weighted through the results of a retrospective testing phase similar to the ones carried out in the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. In this way, the most hazardous Italian areas in the next ten years will arise from a combination of distinct models that place more emphasis on different aspects of the earthquake occurrence process, such as earthquake clustering, historical seismic rate, and the presence of delayed faults capable of large events. Finally, we report new challenges and possible developments for future updating of the model.

Description: Seismic aftershock-hazard analysis is one of the first steps toward establishing an integrated risk-based decision-making support framework for emergency management in the event of an ongoing aftershock sequence. This work focuses on providing adaptive daily forecasts of the mean daily rate of exceeding various spectral acceleration values (the aftershock hazard). Two well-established earthquake-occurrence models suitable for daily seismicity forecasts associated with the evolution of an aftershock sequence, namely, the modified Omori’s aftershock model (MO) and the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) are adopted. An adaptive and evolutionary MO-based aftershock occurrence model with distinct spatial and temporal components is proposed. In this model, the parameters deciding the temporal decay are updated based on the data provided by the ongoing aftershock sequence. This model adopts an evolutionary spatial seismicity pattern loosely based on spatial clustering of aftershock events in the sequence. Bayesian updating is also employed to provide sequence-based parameter estimates for a given ground-motion prediction model. Daily forecasts of the mean rate of exceedance of various spectral acceleration levels are calculated based on alternative occurrence models and the updated ground-motion prediction relation. As a numerical example, daily forecasts of the aftershock-hazard curve are obtained for the L’Aquila aftershock sequence based on the MO-based and ETAS occurrence models, and an updated version of the Sabetta and Pugliese (1996) ground-motion prediction model. These daily hazard forecasts are then compared with the observed daily rates of exceeding various spectral acceleration thresholds.

Description: Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a neurodegenerative disease caused by the loss of Survival Motor Neuron-1 ( SMN1 ) . In all SMA patients, a nearly identical copy gene called SMN2 is present, which produces low levels of functional protein owing to an alternative splicing event. To prevent exon-skipping, we have targeted an intronic repressor, Element1 (E1), located upstream of SMN2 exon 7 using Morpholino-based antisense oligonucleotides (E1 MO -ASOs). A single intracerebroventricular injection in the relatively severe mouse model of SMA (SMN7 mouse model) elicited a robust induction of SMN protein, and mean life span was extended from an average survival of 13 to 54 days following a single dose, consistent with large weight gains and a correction of the neuronal pathology. Additionally, E1 MO -ASO treatment in an intermediate SMA mouse (SMN RT mouse model) significantly extended life span by ~700% and weight gain was comparable with the unaffected animals. While a number of experimental therapeutics have targeted the ISS-N1 element of SMN2 pre-mRNA, the development of E1 ASOs provides a new molecular target for SMA therapeutics that dramatically extends survival in two important pre-clinical models of disease.

Description: The article presents the results of the quantitative statistical analyses of the first world catalog of earthquake-rotated objects (EROs), presented in Part I of the study ( Cucci et al. , 2016 ). We searched for possible relations between the epicentral distance of EROs occurrence and a number of customary seismological observables, such as magnitude, intensity, focal mechanism, etc. The reliability of results is quantitatively checked by means of some suitable statistical tests. We found strong evidence of a clear log–linear dependence of the epicentral distance, to which an ERO can be observed, on the magnitude M w of the source event. We note that the probability of observing EROs near the epicentral area ( D 〈10 km) inversely decreases with the earthquake magnitude and that, for large earthquakes ( M w 8+), this probability remains significant (around 30%) beyond 100 km from the epicenter. Unexpectedly, we did not find significant relations between EROs occurrence and epicentral intensity, possibly because of high dispersion of intensity values. The data analyzed in the present study identifies intensity 6 as the lowest intensity for rotation occurrence; this is different from the main macroseismic scales, which indicate the EROs as a diagnostic of larger intensity degrees. This outcome could suggest the need for revision and for updating the diagnostics indicated in the intensity scales. As for the focal mechanisms of the seismic events, we found higher probabilities of observing rotations beyond 10 km distance from the epicenter of a thrust-faulting earthquake than for a normal-faulting earthquake. This probability reverses beyond 50 km distance, especially for high-magnitude seismic events. Our results indicate interesting insights to potential end users of the EROs catalog in the fields of historical seismology and earthquake engineering.

Description: We present the first world catalog of earthquake-rotated objects (EROs). The catalog is composed of 2053 EROs originating during 184 earthquakes that occurred between 1349 and 2014. The catalog is organized into two tables that contain information about the source earthquakes and about the observed EROs, respectively. EROs are observed to occur following earthquakes in the M w  4.0–8.3 range at localities marked by intensities in the interval I=3.5 (Medvedev–Sponhauer–Karnik [MSK] scale) to I=11 (modified Mercalli intensity [MMI] scale) and at epicentral distances as far as 445 km. We also present some qualitative analyses of the basic details of the catalog with respect to the parameters of the two data tables. These, along with the most complete quantitative analyses of the catalog presented in Part II of the study ( Lombardi et al. , 2016 ), provide interesting clues to address possible relations between EROs occurrence and a number of customary seismological observables, such as magnitude, intensity, epicentral distance, and fault orientation. Finally, we suggest that the utilization of the present catalog will contribute to a better understanding of the mechanism that induces the EROs occurrence and ultimately to provide important insights into the applications for earthquake engineering. Online Material: Table of parameters and information associated with the 2053 observations of earthquake-rotated objects.