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  • 1
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 35(23), pp. 7811-7831, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2023-06-23
    Description: Numerical simulations allow us to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past, present, and future climate changes. The mid-Holocene (MH) and the last interglacial (LIG) were the two most recent warm episodes of Earth’s climate history and are the focus of paleoclimate research. Here, we present results of MH and LIG simulations with two versions of the state-of-the-art Earth system model AWI-ESM. Most of the climate changes in MH and LIG compared to the preindustrial era are agreed upon by the two model versions, including 1) enhanced seasonality in surface temperature that is driven by the redistribution of seasonal insolation; 2) a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and tropical rain belt; 3) a reduction in annual mean Arctic sea ice concentration; 4) weakening and northward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, which is related to the decrease and poleward shift of the temperature gradient from the subtropical to the equator in the Northern Hemisphere; 5) a westward shift of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation due to anomalous warming over the Eurasia and North Africa during boreal summer; and 6) an expansion and intensification of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall, with the latter being dominated by the dynamic component of moisture budget (i.e., the strengthening of wind circulation). However, the simulated responses of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the two models yield different results for both the LIG and the MH. AMOC anomalies between the warm interglacial and preindustrial periods are associated with changes in North Atlantic westerly winds and stratification of the water column at the North Atlantic due to changes in ocean temperature, salinity, and density.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 2
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/, Cambridge University Press, pp. 197-377
    Publication Date: 2023-04-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: It has been recently proposed DeVito [(2019) On the meaning of Fermi's paradox. Futures, 389–414] that a minimal number of contacts with alien radio-communicative civilizations could be justified by their logarithmically slow rate of growth in the Galaxy. Here we further develop this approach to the Fermi paradox, with the purpose of expanding the ensemble of the possible styles of growth that are consistent with the hypothesis of a minimal number of contacts. Generalizing the approach in DeVito (2019), we show that a logarithmic style of growth is still found. We also find that a style of growth following a power law would be admissible, however characterized by an exponent less than one, hence describing a sublinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, still qualitatively in agreement with DeVito (2019). No solutions are found indicating a superlinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, following for example an exponentially diverging law, which would cause, in the long run, an unsustainable proliferation. Although largely speculative, our findings corroborate the idea that a sublinear rate of increase in the number of communicative civilizations in the Galaxy could constitute a further resolution of Fermi paradox, implying a constant and minimal – but not zero – number of contacts.
    Description: Published
    Description: 314-319
    Description: 1TR. Georisorse
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: Relative location of microearthquakes that occurred at Mt Pollino (Italy) from 2011 to 2013 have been analyzed with the aim of a detailed imaging of the geometry of active faults. We identified 27 clusters composed of a number of earthquakes from 9 to 33, with local magnitude in the range 0.6–2.7. The relative location shows that the distribution of hypocentres in each cluster is characterized by extension from few tens of meters to at most 350 m. For each cluster the hypocentre distribution was fitted by a plane to infer the fault orientation, and results were compared with the fault plane solutions corresponding to the focal mechanism of earthquakes of the same cluster. The comparison shows a good agreement in most of the cases. The relative location analysis, generally applied to earthquakes with similar waveform, has been improved to permit also the relative location of earthquakes characterized by not similar signals. To achieve this purpose a modified procedure that overcome the condition of very similar waveforms has been applied to estimate the time delay between first pulses of the master events. The relative location of master events of all clusters shows a precise imaging of the relative position of all analysed sources and allows also to follow with high accuracy the evolution in time of the seismic swarm within the selected periods. The hypocentre position of master events and the nearly parallel fitting planes of any clusters suggest that most of the analyzed earthquakes were produced by different patches of the same fault. The final results depict a main fault plane characterized by NW–SE strike, dip of about 35–45° and depth between 4.5 and 6.5 km b.s.l. Focal mechanisms, used also to evaluate the local stress field, are mostly of normal type with few strike slip solutions for the shallowest events. This result is in good agreement with the local tectonic stress regime that is characterized by predominant NE–SW transtension, as inferred from structural, seismological and geophysical data.
    Description: Published
    Description: 637–648
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Persistence, memory, correlations, clustering, Spatial analysis, Crustal imaging, Earthquake source observations, Seismicity and tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved
    Description: The application of a physics-based earthquake simulator to Central Italy allowed the compilation of a synthetic seismic catalogue spanning 100 000 yr, containing more than 300 000 M ≥ 4.0 simulated earthquakes, without the limitations that real catalogues suffer in terms of completeness, homogeneity and time duration. The seismogenic model upon which we applied the simulator code was derived from version 3.2.1 of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/), selecting, and modifying where appropriate, all the fault systems that are recognized in the portion of Central Italy considered in this study, with a total of 54 faults. Besides tectonic stress loading and static stress transfer as in the previous versions, the physical model on which the latest version of our simulation algorithm is based also includes the Rate and State constitutive law that helps to reproduce Omori’s law. One further improvement in our code was also the introduction of trapezoidalshaped faults that perform better than known faults. The resulting synthetic seismic catalogue exhibits typical magnitude, space and time features which are comparable to those in real observations. These features include the total seismic moment rate, the earthquake magnitude distribution, and the short- and medium-term earthquake clustering. A typical aspect of the observed seismicity in Central Italy, aswell as across thewhole Italian landmass and elsewhere, is the occurrence of earthquake sequences characterized by multiple main shocks of similar magnitude. These sequences are different from the usual earthquake clusters and aftershock sequences, since they have at least two main shocks of similar magnitude. Therefore, special attentionwas devoted to verifyingwhether the simulated catalogue includes this notable aspect. For this purpose, we developed a computer code especially for this work to count the number of multiple events contained in a seismic catalogue under a quantitative definition. We found that the last version of the simulator code produces a slightly larger number of multiple events than the previous versions, but not as large as in the real catalogue. A possible reason for this drawback is the lack of components such as pore-pressure changes due to fluid-diffusion in the adopted physical model.
    Description: Published
    Description: 526–542
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(11), (2022): 2841–2852, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0025.1.
    Description: Prediction of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones prior to landfall is a major societal issue. While air–sea interactions are clearly linked to storm intensity, the connections between the underlying thermal conditions over continental shelves and rapid intensification are limited. Here, an exceptional set of in situ and satellite data are used to identify spatial heterogeneity in sea surface temperatures across the inner core of Hurricane Sally (2020), a storm that rapidly intensified over the shelf. A leftward shift in the region of maximum cooling was observed as the hurricane transited from the open gulf to the shelf. This shift was generated, in part, by the surface heat flux in conjunction with the along- and across-shelf transport of heat from storm-generated coastal circulation. The spatial differences in the sea surface temperatures were large enough to potentially influence rapid intensification processes suggesting that coastal thermal features need to be accounted for to improve storm forecasting as well as to better understand how climate change will modify interactions between tropical cyclones and the coastal ocean.
    Description: This research was made possible by the NOAA RESTORE Science Program (NA17NOS4510101 and NA19NOS4510194) and the NASA Physical Oceanography program (80NSSC21K0553 and WBS 281945.02.25.04.67) and NOAA IOOS program via GCOOS (NA16NOS0120018). The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
    Keywords: Seas/gulfs/bays ; Atmosphere–ocean interaction ; Currents ; Tropical cyclones ; Buoy observations ; In situ oceanic observations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1797–1815, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-21-0288.1.
    Description: Intruding slope water is a major source of nutrients to sustain the high biological productivity in the Gulf of Maine (GoM). Slope water intrusion into the GoM is affected by Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) impinging onto the nearby shelf edge. This study combines long-term mooring measurements, satellite remote sensing data, an idealized numerical ocean model, and a linear coastal-trapped wave (CTW) model to examine the impact of WCRs on slope water intrusion into the GoM through the Northeast Channel. Analysis of satellite sea surface height and temperature data shows that the slope sea region off the GoM is a hotspot of ring activities. A significant linear relationship is found between interannual variations of ring activities in the slope sea region off the GoM and bottom salinity at the Northeast Channel, suggesting the importance of WCRs in modulating variability of intruding slope water. Analysis of the mooring data reveals enhanced slope water intrusion through bottom-intensified along-channel flow following impingements of WCRs on the nearby shelf edge. Numerical simulations qualitatively reproduce the observed WCR impingement processes and associated episodic enhancement of slope water intrusion in the Northeast Channel. Diagnosis of the model result indicates that baroclinic CTWs excited by the ring–topography interaction are responsible for the episodically intensified subsurface along-channel inflow, which carries more slope water into the GoM. A WCR that impinges onto the shelf edge to the northeast of the Northeast Channel tends to generate stronger CTWs and cause stronger enhancement of the slope water intrusion into the GoM.
    Description: This study is supported by the National Science Foundation through Grant OCE-1634965.
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; Channel flows ; Mesoscale processes ; In situ oceanic observations ; Satellite observations ; Numerical analysis/modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hudson, A. R., Peters, D. P. C., Blair, J. M., Childers, D. L., Doran, P. T., Geil, K., Gooseff, M., Gross, K. L., Haddad, N. M., Pastore, M. A., Rudgers, J. A., Sala, O., Seabloom, E. W., & Shaver, G. Cross-site comparisons of dryland ecosystem response to climate change in the US long-term ecological research network. Bioscience, 72(9), (2022): 889–907, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biab134.
    Description: Long-term observations and experiments in diverse drylands reveal how ecosystems and services are responding to climate change. To develop generalities about climate change impacts at dryland sites, we compared broadscale patterns in climate and synthesized primary production responses among the eight terrestrial, nonforested sites of the United States Long-Term Ecological Research (US LTER) Network located in temperate (Southwest and Midwest) and polar (Arctic and Antarctic) regions. All sites experienced warming in recent decades, whereas drought varied regionally with multidecadal phases. Multiple years of wet or dry conditions had larger effects than single years on primary production. Droughts, floods, and wildfires altered resource availability and restructured plant communities, with greater impacts on primary production than warming alone. During severe regional droughts, air pollution from wildfire and dust events peaked. Studies at US LTER drylands over more than 40 years demonstrate reciprocal links and feedbacks among dryland ecosystems, climate-driven disturbance events, and climate change.
    Description: Funding was provided by the USDA-ARS SCINet Big Data Project (grant no. 0500–00093–001–00-D), and the National Science Foundation US LTER Program to New Mexico State University for the Jornada Basin (grant no. DEB 20–25166), Kansas State University for the Konza Prairie (grant no. DEB 2025849), the Kellogg Biological Station (grant no. DEB 1832042), Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve (grants no. DEB-1234162 and no. DEB-1831944), ARC (grant no. DEB-1637459), MCM (grant no. OPP-1637708), CAP (grant no. DEB-1832016), and SEV (grant no. DEB-1655499). Support was also provided by the Minnesota Supercomputer Institute and the University of Minnesota, Michigan State University AgBioResearch.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, pp. 1-40, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2023-09-04
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉Tipping points in the Earth system describe critical thresholds beyond which a single component, part of the system, or the system as a whole changes from one stable state to another. In the present-day Southern Ocean, the Weddell Sea constitutes an important dense-water formation site, associated with efficient deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer and low ice-shelf basal melt rates. Here, a regime shift will occur when continental shelves are continuously flushed with warm, oxygen-poor offshore waters from intermediate depth, leading to less efficient deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer and higher ice-shelf basal melt rates. We use a global ocean–biogeochemistry model including ice-shelf cavities and an eddy-permitting grid in the southern Weddell Sea to address the susceptibility of this region to such a system change for four 21〈jats:sup〉st〈/jats:sup〉-century emission scenarios. Assessing the projected changes in shelf–open ocean density gradients, bottom-water properties, and on-shelf heat transport, our results indicate that the Weddell Sea undergoes a regime shift by 2100 in the highest-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, but not yet in the lower-emission scenarios. The regime shift is imminent by 2100 in the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP2-4.5, but avoidable under the lowest-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. While shelf-bottom waters freshen and acidify everywhere, bottom waters in the Filchner Trough undergo accelerated warming and deoxygenation following the system change, with implications for local ecosystems and ice-shelf basal melt. Additionally, deep-ocean carbon and oxygen transfer decline, implying that the local changes ultimately affect ocean circulation, climate, and ecosystems globally.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2023-04-26
    Description: Mechanisms behind the phenomenon of Arctic amplification are widely discussed. To contribute to this debate, the (AC)3 project was established in 2016 (www.ac3-tr.de/). It comprises modeling and data analysis efforts as well as observational elements. The project has assembled a wealth of ground-based, airborne, shipborne, and satellite data of physical, chemical, and meteorological properties of the Arctic atmosphere, cryosphere, and upper ocean that are available for the Arctic climate research community. Short-term changes and indications of long-term trends in Arctic climate parameters have been detected using existing and new data. For example, a distinct atmospheric moistening, an increase of regional storm activities, an amplified winter warming in the Svalbard and North Pole regions, and a decrease of sea ice thickness in the Fram Strait and of snow depth on sea ice have been identified. A positive trend of tropospheric bromine monoxide (BrO) column densities during polar spring was verified. Local marine/biogenic sources for cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles were found. Atmospheric–ocean and radiative transfer models were advanced by applying new parameterizations of surface albedo, cloud droplet activation, convective plumes and related processes over leads, and turbulent transfer coefficients for stable surface layers. Four modes of the surface radiative energy budget were explored and reproduced by simulations. To advance the future synthesis of the results, cross-cutting activities are being developed aiming to answer key questions in four focus areas: lapse rate feedback, surface processes, Arctic mixed-phase clouds, and airmass transport and transformation.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2023-01-25
    Description: The Doldrums Megatransform System (~7–8°N, Mid-Atlantic Ridge) shows a complex architecture including four intra-transform ridge segments bounded by five active transform faults. Lower crustal rocks are exposed along the Doldrums and Vernadsky transform walls that bound the northernmost intra-transform ridge segment. The recovered gabbros are characterized by variably evolved chemical compositions, ranging from olivine gabbros to gabbronorites and oxide gabbros, and lack the most primitive gabbroic endmembers (troctolites, dunites). Notably, the numerous recovered gabbronorites show up to 20 vol. % of coarse-grained orthopyroxene. Although covariations in mineral and bulk-rock chemical compositions of the olivine and oxide gabbros define trends of crystallization from a common parental melt, the gabbronorites show elevated light over heavy rare earth elements (LREE/HREE) ratios in both bulk-rock and mineral compositions. These features are not consistent with a petrological evolution driven solely by fractional crystallization, which cannot produce the preferential enrichments in highly incompatible elements documented in the orthopyroxene-bearing lithologies. We suggest that gabbronorites crystallized from evolved melts percolating and partly assimilating a pre-existing olivine gabbro matrix. Saturation in orthopyroxene and selective enrichments in LREE relative to M-HREE are both triggered by an increase in assimilated crystal mass, which ranges from negligible in the oxide-gabbros to abundant in the gabbronorites. This melt–rock reaction process has been related to lateral melt migration beneath ridge-transform intersections, where variably evolved melts injected from the peripheral parts of the melting region towards the transform zone may interact with a gabbroic crystal mush to form abundant oxide-bearing gabbronoritic associations.
    Description: Published
    Description: egac086
    Description: 3A. Geofisica marina e osservazioni multiparametriche a fondo mare
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1705-1730, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-21-0243.1.
    Description: Formation and evolution of barrier layers (BLs) and associated temperature inversions (TIs) were investigated using a 1-yr time series of oceanic and air–sea surface observations from three moorings deployed in the eastern Pacific fresh pool. BL thickness and TI amplitude showed a seasonality with maxima in boreal summer and autumn when BLs were persistently present. Mixed layer salinity (MLS) and mixed layer temperature (MLT) budgets were constructed to investigate the formation mechanism of BLs and TIs. The MLS budget showed that BLs were initially formed in response to horizontal advection of freshwater in boreal summer and then primarily maintained by precipitation. The MLT budget revealed that penetration of shortwave radiation through the mixed layer base is the dominant contributor to TI formation through subsurface warming. Geostrophic advection is a secondary contributor to TI formation through surface cooling. When the BL exists, the cooling effect from entrainment and the warming effect from detrainment are both significantly reduced. In addition, when the BL is associated with the presence of a TI, entrainment works to warm the mixed layer. The presence of BLs makes the shallower mixed layer more sensitive to surface heat and freshwater fluxes, acting to enhance the formation of TIs that increase the subsurface warming via shortwave penetration.
    Description: SK is supported by JSPS Overseas Research Fellowships. JS and SK are supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC18K1500. JTF and the mooring deployment were funded by NASA Grants NNX15AG20G and 80NSSC18K1494. DZ is supported by NASA Grant 80NSSC18K1499. This publication is partially funded by the Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES) under NOAA Cooperative Agreement NA20OAR4320271, Contribution 2021-1152. This is PMEL Contribution 5268.
    Description: 2023-01-27
    Keywords: Ocean ; North Pacific Ocean ; Tropics ; Entrainment ; Oceanic mixed layer ; Salinity
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(8), (2022): 1927-1943, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-21-0124.1.
    Description: The Galápagos Archipelago lies on the equator in the path of the eastward flowing Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC). When the EUC reaches the archipelago, it upwells and bifurcates into a north and south branch around the archipelago at a latitude determined by topography. Since the Coriolis parameter (f) equals zero at the equator, strong velocity gradients associated with the EUC can result in Ertel potential vorticity (Q) having sign opposite that of planetary vorticity near the equator. Observations collected by underwater gliders deployed just west of the Galápagos Archipelago during 2013–16 are used to estimate Q and to diagnose associated instabilities that may impact the Galápagos Cold Pool. Estimates of Q are qualitatively conserved along streamlines, consistent with the 2.5-layer, inertial model of the EUC by Pedlosky. The Q with sign opposite of f is advected south of the Galápagos Archipelago when the EUC core is located south of the bifurcation latitude. The horizontal gradient of Q suggests that the region between 2°S and 2°N above 100 m is barotropically unstable, while limited regions are baroclinically unstable. Conditions conducive to symmetric instability are observed between the EUC core and the equator and within the southern branch of the undercurrent. Using 2-month and 3-yr averages, e-folding time scales are 2–11 days, suggesting that symmetric instability can persist on those time scales.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (Grants OCE-1232971 and OCE-1233282), the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program (Grant 80NSSC17K0443), and the Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Program of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NA13OAR4830216). Color maps are from Thyng et al. (2016).
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Currents ; In situ oceanic observations ; Instability ; Mixing ; Ocean dynamics ; Pacific Ocean ; Potential vorticity ; Tropics
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(8), (2022): 1183-1198, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0068.1.
    Description: Horizontal kinematic properties, such as vorticity, divergence, and lateral strain rate, are estimated from drifter clusters using three approaches. At submesoscale horizontal length scales O(1–10)km, kinematic properties become as large as planetary vorticity f, but challenging to observe because they evolve on short time scales O(hourstodays). By simulating surface drifters in a model flow field, we quantify the sources of uncertainty in the kinematic property calculations due to the deformation of cluster shape. Uncertainties arise primarily due to (i) violation of the linear estimation methods and (ii) aliasing of unresolved scales. Systematic uncertainties (iii) due to GPS errors, are secondary but can become as large as (i) and (ii) when aspect ratios are small. Ideal cluster parameters (number of drifters, length scale, and aspect ratio) are determined and error functions estimated empirically and theoretically. The most robust method—a two-dimensional, linear least squares fit—is applied to the first few days of a drifter dataset from the Bay of Bengal. Application of the length scale and aspect-ratio criteria minimizes errors (i) and (ii), and reduces the total number of clusters and so computational cost. The drifter-estimated kinematic properties map out a cyclonic mesoscale eddy with a surface, submesoscale fronts at its perimeter. Our analyses suggest methodological guidance for computing the two-dimensional kinematic properties in submesoscale flows, given the recently increasing quantity and quality of drifter observations, while also highlighting challenges and limitations.
    Description: This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research Initiative ASIRI under Grant N00014-13-1-0451 (SE and AM) and Grant N00014-13-1-0477 (VH and LC). The authors thank the captain and crew of the R/V Roger Revelle, and Andrew Lucas with the Multiscale Ocean Dynamics group at the Scripps Institution for Oceanography for providing the FastCTD data collected in 2015, which was supported by ONR Grant N00014-13-1-0489, as well as Eric D’Asaro for helpful discussions and Lance Braasch for assistance with the drifter dataset. AM and SE further thank NSF (Grant OCE-I434788) and ONR (Grant N00014-16-1-2470) for support. VH and LC were additionally supported by ONR Grants N00014-15-1-2286, N00014-14-1-0183, N00014-19-1-26-91 and NOAA Global Drifter Program (GDP) Grant NA15OAR4320071.
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Indian Ocean ; Eddies ; Frontogenesis/frontolysis ; Fronts ; Lagrangian circulation/transport ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean dynamics
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2023-02-01
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 35(17), (2022): 5465-5482, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0671.1.
    Description: Understanding the contribution of ocean circulation to glacial–interglacial climate change is a major focus of paleoceanography. Specifically, many have tried to determine whether the volumes and depths of Antarctic- and North Atlantic–sourced waters in the deep ocean changed at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼22–18 kyr BP) when atmospheric pCO2 concentrations were 100 ppm lower than the preindustrial. Measurements of sedimentary geochemical proxies are the primary way that these deep ocean structural changes have been reconstructed. However, the main proxies used to reconstruct LGM Atlantic water mass geometry provide conflicting results as to whether North Atlantic–sourced waters shoaled during the LGM. Despite this, a number of idealized modeling studies have been advanced to describe the physical processes resulting in shoaled North Atlantic waters. This paper aims to critically assess the approaches used to determine LGM Atlantic circulation geometry and lay out best practices for future work. We first compile existing proxy data and paleoclimate model output to deduce the processes responsible for setting the ocean distributions of geochemical proxies in the LGM Atlantic Ocean. We highlight how small-scale mixing processes in the ocean interior can decouple tracer distributions from the large-scale circulation, complicating the straightforward interpretation of geochemical tracers as proxies for water mass structure. Finally, we outline promising paths toward ascertaining the LGM circulation structure more clearly and deeply.
    Description: S.K.H. was supported by the Investment in Science Fund at WHOI and the John E. and Anne W. Sawyer Endowed Fund in Support of Scientific Staff. F.J.P. was supported by a Stanback Postdoctoral Fellowship at Caltech.
    Description: 2023-02-01
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2023-02-17
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2022. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Oxford University Press for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Journal International 231(2),(2022): 1434–1445, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac257.
    Description: Makran subduction zone is very active with ∼38 mm yr−1 convergence rate and has experienced great earthquakes in the past. The latest great earthquake of 1945 Mw 8.1 event also triggered a large tsunami and led to ∼4000 casualties. However, due to incomplete historical seismicity records and poor modern instrumentation, earthquake mechanism, co-seismic slip and tsunami characteristics in Makran remain unclear. On 2017 February 17, an Mw 6.3 earthquake rattled offshore Pasni of Pakistan in the eastern Makran, marking the largest event after the 1945 Mw 8.1 earthquake with good geodetic and geophysical data coverage. We use a combination of seismicity, multibeam bathymetry, seismic profile, InSAR measurements and tide-gauge observation to investigate the seismogenic structure, co-seismic deformation, tsunami characteristics of this event and its implication for future major earthquakes. Our results indicate that (1) the earthquake occurred on the shallow-dipping (3°–4°) megathrust; (2) the megathrust co-seismically slipped 15 cm and caused ∼2–4 cm ground subsidence and uplift at Pasni; (3) our tsunami modelling reproduces the observed 5-cm-high small tsunami waveforms. The Pasni earthquake rupture largely overlaps the 1945 slip patch and disturbs the west and east megathrust segments that have not ruptured yet at least since 1765. With such stress perturbation and possible stress evolution effect from the 1945 earthquake, the unruptured patches may fail in the future. This study calls for more preparedness in mitigating earthquake and associated hazards in the eastern Makran.
    Description: his study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 42076059, 41890813, 41976066 and 41976064), the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (No. GML2019ZD0205), Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos. Y4SL021001, QYZDY-SSW-DQC005, 131551KYSB20200021, ISEE2021PY03, 133244KYSB20180029 and E1SL3C02), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (No. 2021B1515020098) and China–Pakistan Joint Research Centre on Earth Sciences.
    Keywords: Tsunamis ; Earthquake dynamics ; Earthquake hazards ; Seismicity and tectonics ; Subduction zone processes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2023-02-17
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(10), (2022): 1525–1539, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0186.1.
    Description: The static and dynamic performances of the RBRargo3 are investigated using a combination of laboratory-based and in situ datasets from floats deployed as part of an Argo pilot program. Temperature and pressure measurements compare well to co-located reference data acquired from shipboard CTDs. Static accuracy of salinity measurements is significantly improved using 1) a time lag for temperature, 2) a quadratic pressure dependence, and 3) a unit-based calibration for each RBRargo3 over its full pressure range. Long-term deployments show no significant drift in the RBRargo3 accuracy. The dynamic response of the RBRargo3 demonstrates the presence of two different adjustment time scales: a long-term adjustment O(120) s, driven by the temperature difference between the interior of the conductivity cell and the water, and a short-term adjustment O(5–10) s, associated to the initial exchange of heat between the water and the inner ceramic. Corrections for these effects, including dependence on profiling speed, are developed.
    Keywords: Data processing/distribution ; In situ oceanic observations ; Profilers ; Oceanic
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(12),(2022): 3199-3219, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0009.1.
    Description: The abyssal overturning circulation is thought to be primarily driven by small-scale turbulent mixing. Diagnosed water-mass transformations are dominated by rough topography “hotspots,” where the bottom enhancement of mixing causes the diffusive buoyancy flux to diverge, driving widespread downwelling in the interior—only to be overwhelmed by an even stronger upwelling in a thin bottom boundary layer (BBL). These water-mass transformations are significantly underestimated by one-dimensional (1D) sloping boundary layer solutions, suggesting the importance of three-dimensional physics. Here, we use a hierarchy of models to generalize this 1D boundary layer approach to three-dimensional eddying flows over realistically rough topography. When applied to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge in the Brazil Basin, the idealized simulation results are roughly consistent with available observations. Integral buoyancy budgets isolate the physical processes that contribute to realistically strong BBL upwelling. The downward diffusion of buoyancy is primarily balanced by upwelling along the sloping canyon sidewalls and the surrounding abyssal hills. These flows are strengthened by the restratifying effects of submesoscale baroclinic eddies and by the blocking of along-ridge thermal wind within the canyon. Major topographic sills block along-thalweg flows from restratifying the canyon trough, resulting in the continual erosion of the trough’s stratification. We propose simple modifications to the 1D boundary layer model that approximate each of these three-dimensional effects. These results provide local dynamical insights into mixing-driven abyssal overturning, but a complete theory will also require the nonlocal coupling to the basin-scale circulation.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 1536515, 1736109, and 2149080. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant 174530.
    Description: 2023-05-18
    Keywords: Abyssal circulation ; Diapycnal mixing ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Topographic effects ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Bottom currents/bottom water
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(6), (2022): 1091–1110, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-21-0068.1.
    Description: Hundreds of full-depth temperature and salinity profiles collected by Deepglider autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) in the North Atlantic reveal robust signals in eddy isopycnal vertical displacement and horizontal current throughout the entire water column. In separate glider missions southeast of Bermuda, subsurface-intensified cold, fresh coherent vortices were observed with velocities exceeding 20 cm s−1 at depths greater than 1000 m. With vertical resolution on the order of 20 m or less, these full-depth glider slant profiles newly permit estimation of scaled vertical wavenumber spectra from the barotropic through the 40th baroclinic mode. Geostrophic turbulence theory predictions of spectral slopes associated with the forward enstrophy cascade and proportional to inverse wavenumber cubed generally agree with glider-derived quasi-universal spectra of potential and kinetic energy found at a variety of locations distinguished by a wide range of mean surface eddy kinetic energy. Water-column average spectral estimates merge at high vertical mode number to established descriptions of internal wave spectra. Among glider mission sites, geographic and seasonal variability implicate bottom drag as a mechanism for dissipation, but also the need for more persistent sampling of the deep ocean.
    Description: This work was funded by NSF Grant 1736217 and would not have been possible without the help of Kirk O’Donnell, James Bennett, Noel Pelland, and all contributors to Deepglider development. We additionally thank the captain crew of the R/V Atlantic Explorer and the BATS team at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, particularly Rod Johnson, as well as Seakeepers International for their professionalism, capability, and generous assistance in deploying and recovering gliders.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Eddies ; Mesoscale processes ; Turbulence ; Energy transport ; In situ oceanic observations ; Oceanic variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2023-02-28
    Description: © The Author(s), 2023. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Timmermans, M.-L., & Toole, J. The Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Gyre. Annual Review of Marine Science, 15(1), (2023): 223-248, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-032122-012034.
    Description: The Arctic Ocean's Beaufort Gyre is a dominant feature of the Arctic system, a prominent indicator of climate change, and possibly a control factor for high-latitude climate. The state of knowledge of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre is reviewed here, including its forcing, relationship to sea-ice cover, source waters, circulation, and energetics. Recent decades have seen pronounced change in all elements of the Beaufort Gyre system. Sea-ice losses have accompanied an intensification of the gyre circulation and increasing heat and freshwater content. Present understanding of these changes is evaluated, and time series of heat and freshwater content are updated to include the most recent observations.
    Description: Support was provided by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs and the Office of Naval Research.
    Keywords: Arctic Ocean ; Beaufort Gyre ; Circulation ; Sea ice ; Freshwater ; Ocean heat content
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2023-03-02
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 52(12), (2022): 3221–3240, https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-22-0010.1.
    Description: Small-scale mixing drives the diabatic upwelling that closes the abyssal ocean overturning circulation. Indirect microstructure measurements of in situ turbulence suggest that mixing is bottom enhanced over rough topography, implying downwelling in the interior and stronger upwelling in a sloping bottom boundary layer. Tracer release experiments (TREs), in which inert tracers are purposefully released and their dispersion is surveyed over time, have been used to independently infer turbulent diffusivities—but typically provide estimates in excess of microstructure ones. In an attempt to reconcile these differences, Ruan and Ferrari derived exact tracer-weighted buoyancy moment diagnostics, which we here apply to quasi-realistic simulations. A tracer’s diapycnal displacement rate is exactly twice the tracer-averaged buoyancy velocity, itself a convolution of an asymmetric upwelling/downwelling dipole. The tracer’s diapycnal spreading rate, however, involves both the expected positive contribution from the tracer-averaged in situ diffusion as well as an additional nonlinear diapycnal distortion term, which is caused by correlations between buoyancy and the buoyancy velocity, and can be of either sign. Distortion is generally positive (stretching) due to bottom-enhanced mixing in the stratified interior but negative (contraction) near the bottom. Our simulations suggest that these two effects coincidentally cancel for the Brazil Basin Tracer Release Experiment, resulting in negligible net distortion. By contrast, near-bottom tracers experience leading-order distortion that varies in time. Errors in tracer moments due to realistically sparse sampling are generally small (〈20%), especially compared to the O(1) structural errors due to the omission of distortion effects in inverse models. These results suggest that TREs, although indispensable, should not be treated as “unambiguous” constraints on diapycnal mixing.
    Description: We acknowledge funding support from National Science Foundation Awards 1536515 and 1736109. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant 174530. This research is also supported by the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program, administered by UCAR’s Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS) under Award NA18NWS4620043B.
    Description: 2023-05-18
    Keywords: Diapycnal mixing ; Diffusion ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Bottom currents/bottom water ; Tracers
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2023-03-15
    Description: Ground shaking, whether it is due to natural or induced earthquakes, has always been a matter of concern since it correlates with structural/non-structural damage and can culminate in human anxiety. Industrial activities such as water injection, gas sequestration and waste fluid disposals, promote induced seismicity and consequent ground shaking that can hinder ongoing activities. Therefore, keeping in mind the importance of timely evaluation of a seismic hazard and its mitigation for societal benefits, the present study proposes specifically designed ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from induced earthquakes in the St. Gallen geothermal area, Switzerland. The data analysed in this study consist of 343 earthquakes with magnitude −1.17 ≤ ML, corr ≤ 3.5 and hypocentral distance between 4 and 15 km. The proposed study is one of the first to incorporate ground motions from negative magnitude earthquakes for the development of GMPEs. The GMPEs are inferred with a two-phase approach. In the first phase, a reference model is obtained by considering the effect of source and medium properties on the ground motion. In the second phase the final model is obtained by including a site/station effect. The comparison between the GMPEs obtained in the present study with GMPEs developed for the other induced seismicity environments highlights a mismatch that is ascribed to differences in regional seismic environment and local site conditions of the respective regions. This suggests that, when dealing with induced earthquakes, GMPEs specific for the study should be inferred and used for both monitoring purposes and seismic hazard analyses.
    Description: Published
    Description: 820–832
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 23
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    Annual Reviews
    In:  EPIC3Annual Review of Marine Science, Annual Reviews, 16(1), pp. 417-441, ISSN: 1941-1405
    Publication Date: 2024-03-01
    Description: The genus Phaeocystis is globally distributed, with blooms commonly occurring on continental shelves. This unusual phytoplankter has two major morphologies: solitary cells and cells embedded in a gelatinous matrix. Only colonies form blooms. Their large size (commonly 2 mm but up to 3 cm) and mucilaginous envelope allow the colonies to escape predation, but data are inconsistent as to whether colonies are grazed. Cultured Phaeocystis can also inhibit the growth of co-occurring phytoplankton or the feeding of potential grazers. Colonies and solitary cells use nitrate as a nitrogen source, although solitary cells can also grow on ammonium. Phaeocystis colonies might be a major contributor to carbon flux to depth, but in most cases, colonies are rapidly remineralized in the upper 300 m. The occurrence of large Phaeocystis blooms is often associated with environments with low and highly variable light and high nitrate levels, with Phaeocystis antarctica blooms being linked additionally to high iron availability. Emerging results indicate that different clones of Phaeocystis have substantial genetic plasticity, which may explain its appearance in a variety of environments. Given the evidence of Phaeocystis appearing in new systems, this trend will likely continue in the near future.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2023-10-31
    Description: Since the Mesozoic, central and eastern European tectonics have been dominated by the closure of the Tethyan Ocean as the African and European plates collided. In the Miocene, the edge of the East European Craton and Moesian Platform were reworked in collision during the Carpathian orogeny and lithospheric extension formed the Pannonian Basin. To investigate the mantle deformation signatures associated with this complex collisional-extensional system, we carry out SKS splitting analysis at 123 broad-band seismic stations in the region. We compare our measurements with estimates of lithospheric thickness and recent seismic tomography models to test for correlation with mantle heterogeneities. Reviewing splitting delay times in light of xenolith measurements of anisotropy yields estimates of anisotropic layer thickness. Fast polarization directions are mostly NW–SE oriented across the seismically slow West Carpathians and Pannonian Basin and are independent of geological boundaries, absolute plate motion direction or an expected palaeo-slab roll-back path. Instead, they are systematically orthogonal to maximum stress directions, implying that the indenting Adria Plate, the leading deformational force in Central Europe, reset the upper-mantle mineral fabric in the past 5 Ma beneath the Pannonian Basin, overprinting the anisotropic signature of earlier tectonic events. Towards the east, fast polarization directions are perpendicular to steep gradients of lithospheric thickness and align along the edges of fast seismic anomalies beneath the Precambrian-aged Moesian Platform in the South Carpathians and the East European Craton, supporting the idea that craton roots exert a strong influence on the surrounding mantle flow. Within the Moesian Platform, SKS measurements become more variable with Fresnel zone arguments indicating a shallow fossil lithospheric source of anisotropy likely caused by older tectonic deformation frozen in the Precambrian. In the Southeast Carpathian corner, in the Vrancea Seismic Zone, a lithospheric fragment that sinks into the mantle is sandwiched between two slow anomalies, but smaller SKS delay times reveal weaker anisotropy occurs mainly to the NW side, consistent with asymmetric upwelling adjacent to a slab, slower mantle velocities and recent volcanism.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2105–2118
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Seismic anisotropy ; geodynamics ; Seismic anisotropy and geodynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2023-11-21
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: On 24 August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm s–2 on E–W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broad-band seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al . The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broadband synthetic time-series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1753–1779
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2023-11-16
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved
    Description: This study describes a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based technique for the prediction of intensity measurements (IMs) of ground shaking. The input data to the CNN model consists of multistation 3C broadband and accelerometric waveforms recorded during the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence for M $\ge$ 3.0. We find that the CNN is capable of predicting accurately the IMs at stations far from the epicenter and that have not yet recorded the maximum ground shaking when using a 10 s window starting at the earthquake origin time. The CNN IM predictions do not require previous knowledge of the earthquake source (location and magnitude). Comparison between the CNN model predictions and the predictions obtained with Bindi et al. (2011) GMPE (which require location and magnitude) has shown that the CNN model features similar error variance but smaller bias. Although the technique is not strictly designed for earthquake early warning, we found that it can provide useful estimates of ground motions within 15-20 sec after earthquake origin time depending on various setup elements (e.g., times for data transmission, computation, latencies). The technique has been tested on raw data without any initial data pre-selection in order to closely replicate real-time data streaming. When noise examples were included with the earthquake data, the CNN was found to be stable predicting accurately the ground shaking intensity corresponding to the noise amplitude.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1379–1389
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Physics - Geophysics; Physics - Geophysics ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2023-11-16
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: In volcanoes, topography, shallow heterogeneity and even shallow morphology can substan- tially modify seismic coda signals. Coda waves are an essential tool to monitor eruption dynamics and model volcanic structures jointly and independently from velocity anomalies: it is thus fundamental to test their spatial sensitivity to seismic path effects. Here, we apply the Multiple Lapse Time Window Analysis (MLTWA) to measure the relative importance of scattering attenuation vs absorption at Mount St Helens volcano before its 2004 erup- tion. The results show the characteristic dominance of scattering attenuation in volcanoes at lower frequencies (3–6 Hz), while absorption is the primary attenuation mechanism at 12 and 18 Hz. Scattering attenuation is similar but seismic absorption is one order of magnitude lower than at open-conduit volcanoes, like Etna and Kilauea, a typical behaviour of a (rela- tively) cool magmatic plumbing system. Still, the seismic albedo (measuring the ratio between seismic energy emitted and received from the area) is anomalously high (0.95) at 3 Hz. A radiative-transfer forward model of far- and near-field envelopes confirms this is due to strong near-receiver scattering enhancing anomalous phases in the intermediate and late coda across the 1980 debris avalanche and central crater. Only above this frequency and in the far-field diffusion onsets at late lapse times. The scattering and absorption parameters derived from MLTWA are used as inputs to construct 2-D frequency-dependent bulk sensitivity kernels for the S-wave coda in the multiple-scattering (using the Energy Transport Equations—ETE) and diffusive (AD, independent of MLTWA results) regimes. At 12 Hz, high coda-attenuation anomalies characterize the eastern side of the volcano using both kernels, in spatial correla- tion with low-velocity anomalies from literature. At 3 Hz, the anomalous albedo, the forward modelling, and the results of the tomographic imaging confirm that shallow heterogeneity beneath the extended 1980 debris-avalanche and crater enhance anomalous intermediate and late coda phases, mapping shallow geological contrasts. We remark the effect this may have on coda-dependent source inversion and tomography, currently used across the world to image and monitor volcanoes. At Mount St Helens, higher frequencies and deep borehole data are necessary to reconstruct deep volcanic structures with coda waves.
    Description: Scottish Alliance for Geosciences Environment and Society and the Kleinman Grant for Volcano Research
    Description: Published
    Description: 169-188
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: NorthAmerica ; Wave scattering and diffraction. ; Codawaves ; Seismicattenuation ; Seismic tomography ; Volcano seismology ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2023-11-14
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: To evaluate the site response using both empirical approaches (e.g. standard spectral ratio, ground motion models (GMMs), generalized inversion techniques, etc.) and numerical 1-D/2-D analyses, the definition of the reference motion, that is the ground motion recorded at stations unaffected by site-effects due to topographic, stratigraphic or basin effects, is needed. The main objective of this work is to define a robust strategy to identify the seismic stations that can be considered as reference rock sites, using six proxies for the site response: three proxies are related to the analysis of geophysical and seismological data (the repeatable site term from the residual analysis, the resonance frequencies from horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios on noise or earthquake signals, the average shear wave velocity in the first 30 m); the remaining ones concern geomorphological and installation features (outcropping rocks or stiff soils, flat topography and absence of interaction with structures). We introduce a weighting scheme to take into account the availability and the quality of the site information, as well as the fulfillment of the criterion associated to each proxy. We also introduce a hierarchical index, to take into account the relevance of the proposed proxies in the description of the site effects, and an acceptance threshold for reference rock sites identification. The procedure is applied on a very large data set, composed by accelerometric and velocimetric waveforms, recorded in Central Italy in the period 2008–2018. This data set is composed by more than 30 000 waveforms relative to 450 earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.2–6.5 and recorded by more than 450 stations. A total of 36 out of 133 candidate stations are identified as reference sites: the majority of them are installed on rock with flat topography, but this condition is not sufficient to guarantee the absence of amplifications, especially at high frequencies. Seismological analyses are necessary to exclude stations affected by resonances. We test the impact of using these sites by calibrating a GMMs. The results show that for reference rock sites the median predictions are reduced down to about 45 per cent at short periods in comparison to the generic rock motions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2053–2067
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2023-11-14
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: We compile a data set of Rayleigh-wave phase velocities between pairs of stations, based on teleseismic events located on the same great circle as the two stations. We validate our observations against dispersion estimates based on ambient-noise cross correlations at the same station pairs. Discrepancies between the results of the two methods can in principle be explained by deviations in the wave propagation path between earthquake and receivers, due to lateral heterogeneity in the Earth’s structure, but the latter effect has, so far, not been precisely quantified nor corrected for. We implement an algorithm to measure the arrival angle of earthquake-generated surface waves and correct the dispersion measurements accordingly. Application to a data set from the Central-Western Mediterranean shows that the arrival-angle correction almost entirely accounts for the discrepancy in question, decreasing significantly the velocity bias for a wide range of periods.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1838–1844
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2023-11-16
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: Three dimensional attenuation images of Mt Etna volcano obtained by the analysis of Q-coda from local volcano-tectonic earthquakes are presented in this work. Seismic sources are confined inside the Etna structure with a maximum focal depth of 35 km below the sea level. The space distribution of the attenuation values was calculated by using 3-D weighting functions derived by the sensitivity kernels of Pacheco & Snieders and approximated by a polynomial interpolation, represented in the maps by using a backprojection method. Data were analyzed in four bands with central frequency placed at 1.5, 3, 6 and 12 Hz, respectively. We observed a frequency dependence of Q-coda with values that range from 55 at 1.5 Hz to 218 at 12 Hz. Q-coda space distribution in the Etna area shows almost uniformity in the average attenuation in the first 35 km below the surface. The images were derived with a resolution of 5 km. We observe as one of our main conclusions that Q-coda attenuation space anomalies are correlated with the areas of highest structural heterogeneities and are distributed along the well-known tectonic structures which characterize the crust in Mt Etna region. Previous and numerous velocity and attenuation images describing the structure of Mt Etna support our main conclusion: high Q-coda volumes almost coincide with the zones marked by high velocity and relative low total attenuation for direct waves.
    Description: Published
    Description: 544–558
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2023-11-29
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: On 24 January 2020 an Mw 6.8 earthquake occurred at 20:55 local time (17:55 UTC) in eastern Turkey, close to the town of Sivrice in the Elazığ province, causing widespread considerable seismic damage in buildings. In this study, we analyse the main features of the rupture process and the seismic ground shaking during the Elazığ earthquake. We first use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) interferograms (Sentinel-1 satellites) to constrain the fault geometry and the coseismic slip distribution of the causative fault segment. Then, we utilize this information to analyse the ground motion characteristics of the main shock in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral accelerations. The absence of seismic registrations in near-field for this earthquake imposes major constraints on the computation of seismic ground motion estimations in the study area. To do this, we have used a stochastic finite-fault simulation method to generate high-frequency ground motions synthetics for the Mw 6.8 Elazığ 2020 earthquake. Finally, we evaluate the potential state of stress of the unruptured portions of the causative fault segment as well as of adjacent segments, using the Coulomb stress failure function variations. Modelling of geodetic data shows that the 2020 Elazığ earthquake ruptured two major slip patches (for a total length of about 40 km) located along the Pütürge segment of the well-known left-lateral strike-slip East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), with up to 2.3 m of slip and an estimated geodetic moment of 1.70 × 1019 Nm (equivalent to a Mw 6.8). The position of the hypocentre supports the evidence of marked WSW rupture directivity during the main shock. In terms of ground motion characteristics, we observe that the high-frequency stochastic ground motion simulations have a good capability to reproduce the source complexity and capture the ground motion attenuation decay as a function of distance, up to the 200 km. We also demonstrate that the design spectra corresponding to 475 yr return period, provided by the new Turkish building code is not exceeded by the simulated seismograms in the epicentral area where there are no strong motion stations and no recordings available. Finally, based on the Coulomb stress distribution computation, we find that the Elazığ main shock increased the stress level of the westernmost part of the Pütürge fault and of the adjacent Palu segment and as a result of an off-fault lobe.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1054–1068
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 32
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    Oxford University Press
    In:  EPIC3Conservation Physiology, Oxford University Press, 9(1), ISSN: 2051-1434
    Publication Date: 2024-01-01
    Description: We studied the ontogeny of osmoregulation of the Asian shore crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus at an invaded area in the North Sea. H. sanguineus is native to Japan and China but has successfully invaded the Atlantic coast of North America and Europe. In the invaded areas, H. sanguineus is becoming a keystone species as driver of community structure and the adults compete with the shore crab Carcinus maenas. Strong osmoregulatory abilities may confer the potential to use and invade coastal areas already earlier in the life cycle. We reared larvae and first juveniles at 24°C in seawater from hatching to intermoult of each developmental stage (zoea I-V, megalopa, crab I). We exposed each stage to a range of salinities (0–39 ppt) for 24 h, and then we quantified haemolymph osmolality, using nano-osmometry. In addition, we quantified osmolality in field-collected adults after acclimation to the test salinities for 6 days. Larvae of H. sanguineus were able to hyper-osmoregulate at low salinities (15 and 20 ppt) over the complete larval development, although the capacity was reduced at the zoeal stage V; at higher salinities (25–39 ppt), all larval stages were osmoconformers. The capacity to slightly hypo-regulate at high salinity appeared in the first juvenile. Adults were able to hyper-osmoregulate at low salinities and hypo-regulate at concentrated seawater (39 ppt). H. sanguineus showed a strong capacity to osmoregulate as compared to its native competitor C. maenas, which only hyper-regulates at the first and last larval stages and does not hypo-regulate at the juvenile-adult stages. The capacity of H. sanguineus to osmoregulate over most of the life cycle should underpin the potential to invade empty niches in the coastal zone (characterized by low salinity and high temperatures). Osmoregulation abilities over the whole life cycle also constitute a strong competitive advantage over C. maenas.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 33
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    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Reviews in Aquaculture, Wiley-Blackwell, ISSN: 1753-5123
    Publication Date: 2024-05-06
    Description: Mass mortality events (MMEs) are defined as the death of large numbers of fish over a short period of time. These events can result in catastrophic losses to the Atlantic salmon aquaculture industry and the local economy. However, they are challenging to understand because of their relative infrequency and the high number of potential factors involved. As a result, the causes and consequences of MMEs in Atlantic salmon aquaculture are not well understood. In this study, we developed a structural network of causal risk factors for MMEs for aquaculture and the communities that depend on Atlantic salmon aquaculture. Using the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) technique, we analysed the causes of Atlantic salmon mass mortalities due to environmental (abiotic), biological (biotic) and nutritional risk factors. The consequences of MMEs were also assessed for the occupational health and safety of aquaculture workers and their implications for the livelihoods of local communities. This structural network deepens our understanding of MMEs and points to management actions and interventions that can help mitigate mass mortalities. MMEs are typically not the result of a single risk factor but are caused by the systematic interaction of risk factors related to the environment, fish diseases, feeding/nutrition and cage-site management. Results also indicate that considerations of health and safety risk, through pre- and post-event risk assessments, may help to minimize workplace injuries and eliminate potential risks of human fatalities. Company and government assisted socio-economic measures could help mitigate post-mass mortality impacts. Appropriate and timely management actions may help reduce MMEs at Atlantic salmon cage sites and minimize the physical and social vulnerabilities of workers and local communities.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 34
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 54(4), pp. 1003-1018, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Publication Date: 2024-04-25
    Description: Coastal upwelling, driven by alongshore winds and characterized by cold sea surface temperatures and high upper-ocean nutrient content, is an important physical process sustaining some of the oceans’ most productive ecosystems. To fully understand the ocean properties in eastern boundary upwelling systems, it is important to consider the depth of the source waters being upwelled, as it affects both the SST and the transport of nutrients toward the surface. Here, we construct an upwelling source depth distribution for parcels at the surface in the upwelling zone. We do so using passive tracers forced at the domain boundary for every model depth level to quantify their contributions to the upwelled waters. We test the dependence of this distribution on the strength of the wind stress and stratification using high-resolution regional ocean simulations of an idealized coastal upwelling system. We also present an efficient method for estimating the mean upwelling source depth. Furthermore, we show that the standard deviation of the upwelling source depth distribution increases with increasing wind stress and decreases with increasing stratification. These results can be applied to better understand and predict how coastal upwelling sites and their surface properties have and will change in past and future climates.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2023-12-27
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: The south-eastern sector of the Mount Etna, Italy, is characterized by numerous active faults, in particular the Belpasso–Ognina lineament, the Tremestieri–San Gregorio–Acitrezza fault, the Trecastagni fault and the Fiandaca–Nizzeti fault including the Timpe Fault System. Their activity is the result of both volcanism and tectonics. Here, we analyse the ground deformation occurred from 2016 to 2019 across those active faults by using the GNSS data acquired at 22 permanent stations and 35 campaign points observed by the Etna Observatory (INGV) and by the University of Catania. We also use the time-series of line of sight displacement of permanent scatterers SENTINEL-1 A-DInSAR obtained by using the P-SBAS tool of the ESA GEP-TEP (Geohazards Thematic Exploitation Platform) service. We discriminate the contributions of the regional tectonic strain, the inflations, the deflations of the volcano and the gravitational sliding in order to analyse the deformation along the faults of the south-eastern flank of Etna. The shallow and destructive Mw = 4.9 earthquake of 2018 December 26 occurred within the studied area two days after a dyke intrusion, that propagated beneath the centre of the volcano accompanied by a short eruption. Both GNSS and InSAR time-series document well those events and allow to investigate the post-seismic sliding across the faults of south-eastern flank. We analyse the slow slip events (SSE) that are observed in the GNSS and InSAR time-series in the vicinity of the Acitrezza fault. We quantify and discuss the tectonic origin of the Belpasso–Ognina lineament that we interpreted as a tear fault.
    Description: Published
    Description: 664–682
    Description: OST3 Vicino alla faglia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Satellite geodesy ; Transient deformation ; Interferometry ; Fractures ; fault ; Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2024-04-09
    Description: Serpentinites are polymineralic rocks distributed almost ubiquitously across the globe in active tectonic regions. Magnetite-rich serpentinites are found in the low-strain domains of serpen- tinite shear zones, which act as potential sites of nucleation of unstable slip. To assess the potential of earthquake nucleation in these materials, we investigate the link between me- chanical properties and fabric of these rocks through a suite of laboratory shear experiments. Our experiments were done at room temperature and cover a range of normal stress and slip velocity from 25 to 100 MPa and 0.3 to 300 μm s −1 , respecti vel y. We show that magnetite-rich serpentinites are ideal materials since they display strong sensitivity to the loading rate and are susceptible to nucleation of unstable slip, especially at low forcing slip velocities. We also aim at the integration of mechanical and microstructural results to describe the underlying mechanisms that produce the macroscopic behaviour. We show that mineralogical composi- tion and mineral structure dictates the coexistence of two deformation mechanisms leading to stable and unstable slip. The weakness of phyllosilicates allows for creep during the interseis- mic phase of the laboratory seismic cycle while favouring the restoration of a load-bearing granular framework, responsible of the nucleation of unstable events. During dynamic slip, fault zone shear fabric determines the mode of slip, producing either asymmetric or Gaussian slip time functions for either fast or slow events. We report rate/state friction parameters and integrate our mechanical data with microstructural observations to shed light on the mech- anisms dictating the complexity of laborator y ear thquakes. We show that mineralogical and fabric heterogeneities control fault slip behaviour.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1778–1797
    Description: OST3 Vicino alla faglia
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 37
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(6), pp. 2059-2080, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: Heat stress is projected to intensify with global warming, causing significant socioeconomic impacts and threatening human health. Wet-bulb temperature (WBT), which combines temperature and humidity effects, is a useful indicator for assessing regional and global heat stress variability and trends. However, the variations of European WBT and their underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Using observations and reanalysis datasets, we demonstrate a remarkable warming of summer WBT during the period 1958–2021 over Europe. Specifically, the European summer WBT has increased by over 1.08C in the past 64 years. We find that the increase in European summer WBT is driven by both near-surface warming temperatures and increasing atmospheric moisture content. We identify four dominant modes of European summer WBT variability and investigate their linkage with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies. The first two leading modes of the European WBT variability exhibit prominent interdecadal to long-term variations, mainly driven by a circumglobal wave train and concurrent sea surface temperature variations. The last two leading modes of European WBT variability mainly show interannual variations, indicating a direct and rapid response to large-scale atmospheric dynamics and nearby sea surface temperature variations. Further analysis shows the role of global warming and changes in midlatitude circulations in the variations of summer WBT. Our findings can enhance the understanding of plausible drivers of heat stress in Europe and provide valuable insights for regional decision-makers and climate adaptation planning.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 38
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of the WGII to the 6th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC AR WGII, Cambridge University Press
    Publication Date: 2024-04-30
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: In the context of global warming, the melting of arctic permafrost raises the threat of a re-emergence of microorganisms some of which were shown to remain viable in ancient frozen soils for up to half a million years. In order to evaluate this risk, it is of interest to acquire a better knowledge of the composition of the microbial communities found in this understudied environment. Here we present a metagenomics analysis of 12 soil samples from Russian Arctic and subarctic pristine areas: Chukotka, Yakutia, and Kamchatka, including 9 permafrost samples collected at various depths. These large datasets (9.2 1011 total bp) were assembled (525,313 contigs 〉 5kb), their encoded protein contents predicted, then used to perform taxonomical assignments of bacterial, archaeal, and eukaryotic organisms, as well as DNA viruses. The various samples exhibited variable DNA contents and highly diverse taxonomic profiles showing no obvious relationship with their locations, depths or deposit ages. Bacteria represented the largely dominant DNA fraction (95%) in all samples, followed by archaea (3.2%), surprisingly little eukaryotes (0.5%), and viruses (0.4%). Although no common taxonomic pattern was identified, the samples shared unexpected high frequencies of β-lactamase genes, almost 0.9 copy/bacterial genome. In addition of known environmental threats, the particularly intense warming of the Arctic might thus enhance the spread of bacterial antibiotic resistances, today's major challenge in public health. β-lactamases were also observed at high frequency in other types of soils, suggesting their general role in the regulation of bacterial populations.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: The response of permafrost to submergence can vary between ice-rich late Pleistocene deposits and the thermokarst basins that thawed out during the Holocene. We hypothesize that inundated Alases offshore thaw faster than submerged Yedoma. To test this hypothesis, we estimated depths to the top of ice-bearing permafrost offshore of the Bykovsky Peninsula in northeast Siberia using electrical resistivity surveys. The surveys traversed submerged lagoon deposits, drained and refrozen Alas deposits, and undisturbed Yedoma from the coastline to 373 m offshore. While the permafrost degradation rates of the submerged Yedoma were in the range of similar sites, the submerged Alas permafrost degradation rates were up to 170% faster. Given the abundance of thermokarst basins and lakes along parts of the Arctic coastline, its effect on subsea permafrost degradation must be similarly prevalent. Remote sensing analyses suggest that 54% of lagoons wider than 500 m originated in thermokarst basins.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: Permafrost thaw leads to thermokarst lake formation and talik growth tens of meters deep, enabling microbial decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter (OM). We analyzed two 17-m-long thermokarst lake sediment cores taken in Central Yakutia, Russia. One core was from an Alas lake in a Holocene thermokarst basin that underwent multiple lake generations, and the second core from a young Yedoma upland lake (formed ca. 70 years ago) whose sediments have thawed for the first time since deposition. This comparison provides a glance into OM fate in thawing Yedoma deposits. We analyzed total organic carbon (TOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content, n-alkanes concentrations, and bacterial and archaeal membrane markers. Furthermore, we conducted one-year-long incubations (4 °C, dark) and measured anaerobic carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) production. The sediments from both cores contained little TOC (0.7±0.4 wt%), but DOC values were relatively high, with highest values in the frozen Yedoma lake sediments (1620 mg L-1). Cumulative GHG production after one year was highest in the Yedoma lake sediments (226±212 μg CO2-C gdw-1, 28±36 μg CH4-C gdw-1) and 3 and 1.5 times lower in the Alas lake sediments, respectively (75±76 μg CO2-C gdw-1, 19±29 μg CH4-C gdw-1). The highest CO2 production in the frozen Yedoma lake sediments likely results from decomposition of readily bioavailable OM, while highest CH4 production in the non-frozen top sediments of this core suggests that methanogenic communities established upon thaw. The lower GHG production in the non-frozen Alas lake sediments resulted from advanced OM decomposition during Holocene talik development. Furthermore, we found that drivers of CO2 and CH4 production differ following thaw. Our results suggest that GHG production from TOC-poor mineral deposits, which are widespread throughout the Arctic, can be substantial. Therefore, our novel data are relevant for vast ice-rich permafrost deposits vulnerable to thermokarst formation.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 42
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    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  EPIC3Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Wiley-Blackwell, 32(1), pp. 59-75, ISSN: 1045-6740
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: Thermal erosion is a major mechanism of permafrost degradation, resulting in characteristic landforms. We inventory thermo-erosional valleys in ice-rich coastal lowlands adjacent to the Siberian Laptev Sea based on remote sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS), and field investigations for a first regional assessment of their spatial distribution and characteristics. Three study areas with similar geological (Yedoma Ice Complex) but diverse geomorphological conditions vary in valley areal extent, incision depth, and branching geometry. The most extensive valley networks are incised deeply (up to 35 m) into the broad inclined lowland around Mamontov Klyk. The flat, low-lying plain forming the Buor Khaya Peninsula is more degraded by thermokarst and characterized by long valleys of lower depth with short tributaries. Small, isolated Yedoma Ice Complex remnants in the Lena River Delta predominantly exhibit shorter but deep valleys. Based on these hydrographical network and topography assessments, we discuss geomorphological and hydrological connections to erosion processes. Relative catchment size along with regional slope interact with other Holocene relief-forming processes such as thermokarst and neotectonics. Our findings suggest that thermo-erosional valleys are prominent, hitherto overlooked permafrost degradation landforms that add to impacts on biogeochemical cycling, sediment transport, and hydrology in the degrading Siberian Yedoma Ice Complex.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 43
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    Annual Reviews
    In:  EPIC3Annual Review of Marine Science, Annual Reviews, 16(1), pp. 513-536, ISSN: 1941-1405
    Publication Date: 2024-01-31
    Description: 〈jats:p〉 For decades, multiple-driver/stressor research has examined interactions among drivers that will undergo large changes in the future: temperature, pH, nutrients, oxygen, pathogens, and more. However, the most commonly used experimental designs—present-versus-future and ANOVA—fail to contribute to general understanding or predictive power. Linking experimental design to process-based mathematical models would help us predict how ecosystems will behave in novel environmental conditions. We review a range of experimental designs and assess the best experimental path toward a predictive ecology. Full factorial response surface, fractional factorial, quadratic response surface, custom, space-filling, and especially optimal and sequential/adaptive designs can help us achieve more valuable scientific goals. Experiments using these designs are challenging to perform with long-lived organisms or at the community and ecosystem levels. But they remain our most promising path toward linking experiments and theory in multiple-driver research and making accurate, useful predictions. 〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: We performed seismic ambient noise tomography to investigate the shallow crustal structure around the Ivrea geophysical body (IGB) in the Ivrea-Verbano Zone (IVZ). We achieved higher resolution with respect to previous tomographic works covering the Western Alps, by processing seismic data collected by both permanent and temporary seismic networks (61 broad-band seismic stations in total). This included IvreaArray, a temporary, passive seismic experiment designed to investigate the IVZ crustal structure. Starting from continuous seismic ambient noise recordings, we measured and inverted the dispersion of the group velocity of surface Rayleigh waves (fundamental mode) in the period range 4–25 s. We obtained a new, 3-D vS model of the IVZ crust via the stochastic neighbourhood algorithm (NA), with the highest resolution between 3 to 40 km depth. The fast and shallow shear wave velocity anomaly associated with the IGB presents velocities of 3.6 km s−1 directly at the surface, in remarkable agreement with the location of the exposed lower-to-middle crustal and mantle outcrops. This suggests a continuity between the surface geological observations and the subsurface geophysical anomalies. The fast IGB structure reaches vS of 4 km s−1 at 20–25 km depth, at the boundary between the European and Adriatic tectonic plates, and in correspondence with the earlier identified Moho jump in the same area. The interpretation of a very shallow reaching IGB is further supported by the comparison of our new results with recent geophysical investigations, based on receiver functions and gravity anomaly data. By combining the new geophysical constraints and the geological observations at the surface, we provide a new structural interpretation of the IGB, which features lower crustal and mantle rocks at upper crustal depths. The comparison of the obtained vS values with the physical properties from laboratory analysis of local rock samples suggests that the bulk of the IGB consists of a combination of mantle peridotite, ultramafic and lower crustal rocks, bound in a heterogeneous structure. These new findings, based on vS tomography, corroborate the recent interpretation for which the Balmuccia peridotite outcrops are continuously linked to the IGB structure beneath. The new outcomes contribute to a multidisciplinary framework for the interpretation of the forthcoming results of the scientific drilling project DIVE. DIVE aims at probing the lower continental crust and its transition to the mantle, with two ongoing and one future boreholes (down to 4 km depth) in the IVZ area, providing new, complementary information on rock structure and composition across scales. In this framework, we constrain the upper crustal IGB geometries and lithology based on new evidence for vS, connecting prior crustal knowledge to recent active seismic investigations.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1089–1105
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: On the 9th of January 2020, an Mw 6.4 strike-slip earthquake took place north of the Asian margin of the Bering Sea. The earthquake occurred within the known reverse-right-lateral active fault zone, called Khatyrka–Vyvenka, which transverses the Koryak Highland from SE to NW and is thought to be a surface manifestation of the Asian portion of either the Bering plate boundary or the northern edge of the Alaskan stream. No other strong earthquake has ever been recorded in this remote uninhabited area and the few existing seismic stations provide poor quality earthquake locations.We adopt SAR interferometry (InSAR) technique to define an improved location of the Koryak 2020 earthquake and constrain the seismic source. The analysis of the 2020 event revealed a previously unknown active fault of left-lateral kinematics that is possibly hidden and strikes NWtransversely to the Khatyrka–Vyvenka fault zone. Although several mechanisms could account for left-lateral kinematics of this fault, we propose that the structure is part of a more extended NW fault structure, that formed in pre-neotectonic times and has played a role of a pre-existing rheological discontinuity. This revived NW structure together with a similar structure located easterly, so far aseismic, make the plate/stream boundary segmented, step-like in plan view. The step-like boundary geometry may be the result of internal transform deformation of a rigid plate, but it is better explained by deflections of the Alaskan stream edge at local crustal asperities, which are pre-Cenozoic terrains.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1412–1421
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Plate motion ; Radar interferometry ; Seismic cycle ; Asia
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2024-03-19
    Description: Accurate quantification of seismic activity in volcanic regions is an important asset for im- proving hazard and risk assessment. This is especially true for densely populated areas, as in the case of Etna volcano (Southern Italy). There, the volcanic hazard is amplified by the seismic risk of acti ve faults, especiall y on the eastern flank of the volcano. In such a context, it is common to rely on moment magnitude ( M W ) to characterize seismicity and monitor the energy released during an eruption. In this study, we calculate the moment-based magnitude ( M W ) for selected seismic data sets, using different approaches in distinct magnitude ranges to cover the widest possible range of magnitude that characterizes Etna’s seismicity . Specifically , we computed the M W from a data set of moment tensor solutions of earthquakes that occurred in the magnitude range 3.4 ≤M L ≤4.8 during 2005–2020; we created a data set of seismic moment and associated M W for earthquakes 1.0 ≤M L 〈 3.4 obtained by analysing source spectra; we fine-tuned two relationships, for shallow and deep earthquakes, to obtain M W from response spectra. Finally, we calibrated a specific relationship between M W and M L for the Etna area earthquakes in the range 1.0 ≤M L ≤4.8. All the empirical relationships obtained in this study can be applied in real-time analysis of the seismicity to provide fast and robust information on the released seismic energy.
    Description: INGV-DPC 2012- 2021 agreement; B2 DPC-INGV 2019-2021 project; IMPACT Department strategic project ; ‘Project PE0000005–RETURN (NRRP)
    Description: Published
    Description: 2520-2534
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquak e source observations ; Earthquake hazards ; Time series analysis ; Full moment tensor
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: This study presents a new robust statistical framework, in which to measure relative differences, or deviations from a hypothetical reference value, of Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Moreover, it applies this method to recent seismicity in Italy, to find possible changes of earthquake magnitude distribution in time and space. The method uses bootstrap techniques, which have no prior assumptions about the distribution of data, keeping their basic features. Excluding Central Italy, no significative b-value variation is found, revealing that the frequency-magnitude distribution exponent is substantially stable or that data are not able to reveal hidden variations. Considering the small size of examined magnitude samples, we cannot definitively decide if the higher b-values in Central Italy, consistently founded by all applied tests, have a physical origin or result from a statistical bias. In any case, they indicate short-lived excursions which have a temporary nature and, therefore, cannot be associated solely to spatial variations in tectonic framework. Both the methodological issues and the results of the application to seismicity in Italy show that a correct assessing of b-value changes requests appropriate statistics, that accurately quantify the low accuracy and precision of b-value estimation for small magnitude samples.
    Description: Published
    Description: 729–740
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: We present the results from a fully unconstrained moment tensor inversion of induced seismic events in a complex and high seismic hazard region (Val d’Agri basin, Southern Italy). The study area hosts two well-documented cases of induced microseismicity linked to (i) a wastewater injection well of a giant oilfield (the largest in onshore Europe), and (ii) severe seasonal level changes of an artificial lake. In order to gather information on the non-doublecouple components of the source and to better understand the rupture mechanisms, we analyse seismic events recorded during daily injection tests in the disposal well. The computed moment tensors have significant non-double-couple components that correlate with the well-head injection pressure. The injection parameters strongly influence the rupture mechanism that can be interpreted as due to the opening/closing of a fracture network inside a fault zone of a pre-existing thrust fault. For the case of the reservoir-induced seismicity, no direct correlations are observed with the loading/unloading of the reservoir.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1617–1627
    Description: OST3 Vicino alla faglia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2024-03-22
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2024-04-03
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: Estimation of local seismic response plays a key role in assessing local seismic hazard and particularly in the design of shaking scenarios. Modelling local seismic response involves knowing of the shear wave velocity (Vs) and quality factor (Qs) profiles for the site in question. The many techniques that have been developed to assess Vs in surface deposits produce reliable measurements of Vs , but these rarely correspond to direct measurements of Qs . The latter is often considered through damping measures from laboratory tests on small-scale soil samples, which can provide information primarily on intrinsic attenuation, neglecting the contribution of scattering effects. In this paper, using seismic recordings obtained at the surface and in boreholes at 100 m depth, we estimate an average value of Qs of some characteristic alluvial deposits of the Po Plain (northern Italy). Data come from a microseismic network which sampled an almost uniform lithology in the central Po Plain and consisted of three surface and four borehole stations with an interstation distance of about 2 km. The average value of Qs of the shallowest 100 m of the sedimentary strata, Qs100, is estimated by considering: (1) the high-frequency attenuation of seismic waves due to propagation through the corresponding stratigraphy and (2) the interference between incident and surface-reflected waves observed at borehole stations. We parametrize the first through k0_100, the difference between the values of the spectral decay parameter kappa (k) estimated at the surface and at the boreholes depth, respectively. We use the second in order to compute Vs100, the time-averaged Vs referred to the uppermost 100 m stratigraphy. We obtain: k0_100 = (11 ± 3) ms, Vs100 = (309 ± 11) m s −1 and Qs100 = 31 ± 10. At the surface, the estimated values of the site-specific kappa, k0, are found to range from 75 to 79 ms. As expected, these results are in good agreement with studies performed in other sites characterized by sandy or clayey lithologies, and can be usefully used in site response analysis at sites where the rigidity is mainly controlled by lithostatic pressure.
    Description: Comune di Minerbio (grant: “Sperimentazione ILG Minerbio”; grant number: 0913.010).
    Description: Published
    Description: 2075–2094
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake ground motions ; Seismic attenuation ; Site effects ; Wave propagation ; Wave scattering and diffraction ; 04.06. Seismology
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2024-04-05
    Description: Seismic Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements are the horizontal-to-vertical ratio of the Rayleigh wave particle motion, and are sensitive to the subsurface structure beneath a seismic station. H/V ratios measured from the ambient vibrations of the Earth are being increasingly used in glaciological applications to determine glacier and ice sheet thickness, seismic velocities and firn properties. Using the newly developed degree-of-polarisation (DOP-E) method which exploits the polarisation properties of seismic noise, we identify and extract Rayleigh waves from seismic stations in Greenland, and relate them to sea ice processes and the geology of the upper crust. Finally, we provide some suggestions for future applications of DOP-E method to gain greater insight into seasonal and long-term variability of sea ice formation and breakup as well as the monitoring of ice sheet thickness, subglacial environment and firn layers in the poles.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3-7
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: In a recent work, we applied the every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS) probabilistic model to the pseudo-prospective forecasting of shallow earthquakes with magni- tude M 5.0 in the Italian region. We compared the forecasting performance of EEPAS with that of the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) forecasting model, using the most recent consistency tests developed within the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictabil- ity (CSEP). The application of such models for the forecasting of Italian target earthquakes seems to show peculiar characteristics for each of them. In particular, the ETAS model showed higher performance for short-term forecasting, in contrast, the EEPAS model showed higher forecasting performance for the medium/long-term. In this work, we compare the performance of EEPAS and ETAS models with that obtained by a deterministic model based on the occur- rence of strong foreshocks (FORE model) using an alarm-based approach. We apply the two rate-based models (ETAS and EEPAS) estimating the best probability threshold above which we issue an alarm. The model parameters and probability thresholds for issuing the alarms are calibrated on a learning data set from 1990 to 2011 during which 27 target earthquakes have occurred within the analysis region. The pseudo-prospective forecasting performance is as- sessed on a validation data set from 2012 to 2021, which also comprises 27 target earthquakes. Tests to assess the forecasting capability demonstrate that, even if all models outperform a purely random method, which trivially forecast earthquake proportionally to the space–time occupied by alarms, the EEPAS model exhibits lower forecasting performance than ETAS and FORE models. In addition, the relative performance comparison of the three models demonstrates that the forecasting capability of the FORE model appears slightly better than ETAS, but the difference is not statistically significant as it remains within the uncertainty level. However, truly prospective tests are necessary to validate such results, ideally using new testing procedures allowing the analysis of alarm-based models, not yet available within the CSEP.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1541–1551
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Computational seismology ; Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction ; Statistical seismology ; Comparison betwee earthquake forecasting methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: To understand the seismic hazard of a subduction zone, it is necessary to know the geometry, location and mechanical characteristics of the interplate boundary below which an oceanic plate is thrust downward. By considering the azimuthal dependence of converted P-to-S (Ps) amplitudes in receiver functions, we have detected the interplate boundary in the Makran subduction zone, revealing significant seismic anisotropy at the base of the accretionary wedge above the slab before it bends down beneath the Jaz Murian basin. This anisotropic feature aligns with a zone of reduced seismic velocity and a high primary/secondary wave velocity ratio (Vp/Vs), as documented in previous studies. The presence of this low-velocity highly anisotropic layer at the base of the accretionary wedge, likely representing a low-strength shear zone, could possibly explain the unusually wide accretionary wedge in Makran. Additionally, it may impact the location and width of the locked zone along the interplate boundary.
    Description: Iranian National Science Foundation (INSF)
    Description: Published
    Description: 64-74
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake hazards, Seismic anisotropy, Crustal structure, Subduction zone processes ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: The Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) forecasting model is a space– time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (ψ ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has been previously applied to New Zealand, Cal- ifornia and Japan earthquakes with target magnitude thresholds varying from about 5–7. In all previous application, computations were done using the computer code implemented in Fortran language by the model authors. In this work, we applied it to Italy using a suite of computing codes completely rewritten in Matlab. We first compared the two software codes to ensure the convergence and adequate coincidence between the estimated model parameters for a simple region capable of being analysed by both software codes. Then, using the rewritten codes, we optimized the parameters for a different and more complex polygon of analysis using the Homogenized Instrumental Seismic Catalogue data from 1990 to 2011. We then perform a pseudo-prospective forecasting experiment of Italian earthquakes from 2012 to 2021 with Mw ≥ 5.0 and compare the forecasting skill of EEPAS with those obtained by other time in- dependent (Spatially Uniform Poisson, Spatially Variable Poisson and PPE: Proximity to Past Earthquakes) and time dependent [Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)] forecasting models using the information gain per active cell. The preference goes to the ETAS model for short time intervals (3 months) and to the EEPAS model for longer time intervals (6 months to 10 yr).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1681–1700
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Computational seismology ; Earthquake interaction ; forecasting and prediction ; Statistical seismology ; Earthquake forecasting
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 55
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    Annual Reviews
    In:  EPIC3Annual Review of Marine Science, Annual Reviews, 15(1), pp. 509-538, ISSN: 1941-1405
    Publication Date: 2024-05-10
    Description: The regular movements of waves and tides are obvious representations of the oceans’ rhythmicity. But the rhythms of marine life span across ecological niches and timescales, including short (in the range of hours) and long (in the range of days and months) periods. These rhythms regulate the physiology and behavior of individuals, as well as their interactions with each other and with the environment. This review highlights examples of rhythmicity in marine animals and algae that represent important groups of marine life across different habitats. The examples cover ecologically highly relevant species and a growing number of laboratory model systems that are used to disentangle key mechanistic principles. The review introduces fundamental concepts of chronobiology, such as the distinction between rhythmic and endogenous oscillator–driven processes. It also addresses the relevance of studying diverse rhythms and oscillators, as well as their interconnection, for making better predictions of how species will respond to environmental perturbations, including climate change. As the review aims to address scientists from the diverse fields of marine biology, ecology, and molecular chronobiology, all of which have their own scientific terms, we provide definitions of key terms throughout the article.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2024-06-13
    Description: All Rights Reserved
    Description: Predicting coastal change depends upon our knowledge of postglacial relative sea-level variability, partly controlled by glacio-isostatic responses to ice-sheet melting. Here, we reconstruct the postglacial relative sea-level changes along the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of northwestern South America by numerically solving the sea-level equation with two scenarios of mantle viscosity: global standard average and high viscosity. Our results with the standard model (applicable to the Pacific coast) agree with earlier studies by indicating a mid-Northgrippian high stand of ~2 m. The high-viscosity simulation (relevant to the Caribbean coast) shows that the transition from far- to intermediate-field influence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet occurs between Manzanillo del Mar and the Gulf of Morrosquillo. South of this location, the Colombian Caribbean coast has exhibited a still stand with a nearly constant Holocene relative sea level. By analyzing our simulations considering sea-level indicators, we argue that tectonics is more prominent than previously assumed, especially along the Caribbean coast. This influence prevents a simplified view of regional relative sea-level changes on the northwestern South American coast.
    Description: Published
    Description: 28-43
    Description: OSA4: Ambiente marino, fascia costiera ed Oceanografia operativa
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 57
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 37(8), pp. 2505-2518, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: A fundamental statistic of climate variability is its spatiotemporal correlation function. Its complex structure can be concisely summarized by a frequency-dependent measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom (ESDOF). Here we present, for the first time, frequency-dependent ESDOF estimates of global natural surface temperature variability from purely instrumental measurements, using the HadCRUT4 dataset (1850-2014). The approach is based on a newly developed method for estimating the frequency-dependent spatial correlation function from gappy data fields. Results reveal a multicomponent structure of the spatial correlation function, including a large-amplitude short-distance component (with weak time scale dependence) and a small-amplitude long-distance component (with increasing relative amplitude toward the longer time scales). Two frequency-dependent ESDOF measures are applied, each responding mainly to either of the two components. Both measures exhibit a significant ESDOF reduction from monthly to multidecadal time scales, implying an increase of the effective spatial scale of natural surface temperature fluctuations. Moreover, it is found that a good approximation to the global number of equally spaced samples needed to estimate the variance of global mean temperature is given, at any frequency, by the greater one of the two ESDOF measures, decreasing from ;130 at monthly to ;30 at multidecadal time scales. Finally, the multicomponent structure of the correlation function together with the detected ESDOF scaling properties indicate that the ESDOF reduction toward the longer time scales cannot be explained simply by diffusion acting on stochastically driven anomalies, as it might be suggested f rom simple stochastic-diffusive energy balance models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 58
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 34(18), pp. 7373-7388, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Publication Date: 2024-06-21
    Description: Climate variability occurs over wide ranges of spatial and temporal scales. It exhibits a complex spatial covariance structure, which depends on geographic location (e.g., tropics vs extratropics) and also consists of a superposition of (i) components with gradually decaying positive correlation functions and (ii) teleconnections that often involve anticorrelations. In addition, there are indications that the spatial covariance structure depends on frequency. Thus, a comprehensive assessment of the spatiotemporal covariance structure of climate variability would require an extensive set of statistical diagnostics. Therefore, it is often desirable to characterize the covariance structure by a simple summarizing metric that is easy to compute from datasets. Such summarizing metrics are useful, for example, in the context of comparisons between climate models or between models and observations. Here we introduce a frequency-dependent version of a simple measure of the effective spatial degrees of freedom. The measure is based on the temporal variance of the global average of some climate variable, and its novel aspect consists in its frequency dependence. We also provide a clear geometric interpretation of the measure. Its easy applicability is demonstrated using near-surface temperature and precipitation fields obtained from a paleoclimate model simulation. This application reveals a distinct scaling behavior of the spatial degrees of freedom as a function of frequency, ranging from monthly to millennial scales.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 59
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    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Glaciology, Cambridge University Press, 67(261), pp. 84-90
    Publication Date: 2024-06-22
    Description: The validity of any glaciological paleo proxy used to interpret climate records is based on the level of understanding of their transfer from the atmosphere into the ice sheet and their recording in the snowpack. Large spatial noise in snow properties is observed, as the wind constantly redistributes the deposited snow at the surface routed by the local topography. To increase the signal-tonoise ratio and getting a representative estimate of snow properties with respect to the high spatial variability, a large number of snow profiles is needed. However, the classical way of obtaining profiles via snow-pits is time and energy-consuming, and thus unfavourable for large surface sampling programs. In response, we present a dual-tube technique to sample the upper metre of the snowpack at a variable depth resolution with high efficiency. The developed device is robust and avoids contact with the samples by exhibiting two tubes attached alongside each other in order to (1) contain the snow core sample and (2) to access the bottom of the sample, respectively. We demonstrate the performance of the technique through two case studies in East Antarctica where we analysed the variability of water isotopes at a 100 m and 5 km spatial scales.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2024-05-27
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: We report on about 20 yr of relative gravity measurements, acquired on Mt. Somma–Vesuvius volcano in order to investigate the hydrological and volcano-tectonic processes controlling the present-day activity of the volcano. The retrieved long-term field of time gravity change (2003–2022) shows a pattern essentially related to the subsidence, which have affected the central part of the volcano, as detected by the permanent GNSS network and InSAR data. After reducing the observations for the effect of vertical deformation, no significant residuals are found, indicating no significant mass accumulation or loss within the volcanic system. In the north-western sector of the study area, at the border of the volcano edifice, however, significant residual positive gravity changes are detected which are associated to ground-water rebound after years of intense exploitation of the aquifers. On the seasonal timescale, we find that stations within the caldera rim are affected by the seasonal hydrological effects, while the gravity stations at the base of the Vesuvius show a less clear correlation. Furthermore, within the caldera rim a multiyear gravity transient is detected with an increase phase lasting about 4 yr followed by a slower decrease phase. Analysis of rain data seem to exclude a hydrological origin, hence, we hypothesize a deeper source related to the geothermal activity, which can be present even if the volcano is in a quiescent state. We infer the depth and volume of the source by inverting the spatial pattern of the gravity field at the peak of the transient. A volume of fluids of 9.5 × 107 m3 with density of 1000 kg m−3 at 2.3 km depth is capable to fit reasonably well the observations. To explain the gravity transient, simple synthetic models are produced, that simulate the ascent of fluids from a deep reservoir up to the depth of 2.3 km and a successive diffusion within the carbonate aquifer hosting the geothermal system. The whole process appears to not significantly affect the seismicity rate and the deformation of the volcano. This study demonstrates the importance of a 4-D gravity monitoring of a volcano to understand its complex gravity signals that cover different spatial and temporal scales. Discriminating the different contributions that mix up in the observed gravity changes, in particular those due to hydrologic/anthropogenic activities form those due to the geothermal dynamics, is fundamental for a complete and reliable evaluation of the volcano state.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1565–1580
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: NORP-SORP Workshop on Polar Fresh Water: Sources, Pathways and Impacts of Freshwater in Northern and Southern Polar Oceans and Seas (SPICE-UP) What: Up to 60 participants at a time and more than twice as many registrants in total from 20 nations and across experience levels met to discuss the current status of research on freshwater in both polar regions, future directions, and synergies between the Arctic and Southern Ocean research communities When: 19–21 September 2022 Where: Online
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 62
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s1-s10, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉—J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.〈/jats:p〉 〈jats:p〉On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 63
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, 104(9), pp. s271-s321, ISSN: 0003-0007
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: We developed a high-resolution magnetochronology of the Pleistocene stratigraphy of the Monte Netto hillock, a tectonically uplifted struc ture in the Po Plain of northern Italy. Our data allowed reconstructing the depositional age of the sequence and assessing rates of defor mation and rock uplift of the neotectonic structure, thus providing constraints on the tectono-sedimentary evolution of this seismically active part of the buried Southern Alps. Using a combination of magnetostratigraphy and paleosecular variation analysis, we generated an age-depth model for the Monte Netto stratigraphy that encompasses, from the top, Upper Pleistocene (11–72 ka) loess-paleosols over laying fluvial sediments spanning the Brunhes-Matuyama boundary (773 ka) and the top of the Jaramillo (990 ka). The identification of the same magneto-chronostratigraphic surfaces in nearby drill cores from regions of the Po Plain that have not been affected by neotectonic deformation allowed estimating a mean rate of tectonic uplift of the hillock relative to the neighboring plain of 11.3 ± 1.5 cm/ka, and an absolute uplift relative to sea level of ∼19.3 cm/ka. Finally, our paleomagnetic analyses from the uppermost loess sequence disclosed the complexity of the tectonic evolution of the Monte Netto structure, which shows evidence of a two-phase rotational deformation linked to coseismic surface faulting due to recent seismic activity.
    Description: Published
    Description: 191-205
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Magnetochronology ; Pleistocene ; Paleosecular variations ; Loess-paleosols ; Neotectonic deformation ; Po Plain
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2024-06-17
    Description: Thermobarometry provides a critical means of assessing locations of magma storage and dynamics in the lead-up to volcanic eruptions and crustal growth. A common approach is to utilise minerals that have compositions sensitive to changes in pressure and/or temperature, such as clinopyroxene, which is ubiquitous in mafic to intermediate magmas. However, clinopyroxene thermobarometry may carry significant uncertainty and require an appropriate equilibrium melt composition. In addition, the degree of magma undercooling (ΔT) affects clinopyroxene composition and zoning, with common sector zoning potentially obfuscating thermobarometry results. Here, we use a set of crystallisation experiments on a primitive trachybasalt from Mt. Etna (Italy) at ΔT = 25–233 °C, P = 400–800 MPa, H2O = 0–4 wt % and fO2 = NNO + 2, with clinopyroxene crystals defined by Al-rich zones (prisms and skeletons) and Al-poor zones (hourglass and overgrowths) to assess common equilibrium models and thermobarometric approaches. Under the studied conditions, our data suggest that the commonly applied Fe–Mg exchange (cpx-meltKdFe–Mg) is insensitive to increasing ΔT and may not be a reliable indicator of equilibrium. The combined use of DiHd (CaMgSi2O6 + CaFeSi2O6) and EnFs (Mg2Si2O6 + Fe2Si2O6) models indicate the attainment of equilibrium in both Al-rich and Al-poor zones for almost all investigated ΔT. In contrast, CaTs (CaAl2SiO6) and CaTi (CaTiAl2O6) models reveal substantial deviations from equilibrium with increasing ΔT, particularly in Al-rich zones. We postulate that this reflects slower diffusion of Al and Ti in the melt compared with Ca and Mg and recommend the concurrent application of these four models to evaluate equilibrium between clinopyroxene and melt, particularly for sector-zoned crystals. Thermobarometers calibrated with only isothermal–isobaric experiments closely reproduce experimental P–T at low ΔT, equivalent to natural phenocrysts cores and sector-zoned mantles. Models that also consider decompression experiments are most accurate at high ΔT and are therefore suitable for outermost phenocryst rims and groundmass microlites. Recent machine learning approaches reproduce P–T conditions across all ΔT conditions. Applying our experimental constraints to sector-zoned microphenocrysts and groundmass microlites erupted during the 1974 eccentric eruption at Mt. Etna, we highlight that both hourglass and prism sectors are suitable for thermobarometry, given that equilibrium is sufficiently tested for. The combination of DiHd, EnFs, CaTs and CaTi models identifies compositions closest to equilibrium with the bulk melt composition, and results in smaller differences in P–T calculated for hourglass and prism sectors compared with applying only DiHd and EnFs equilibrium models. This provides a framework to assess crystallisation conditions recorded by sector-zoned clinopyroxene crystals in mafic alkaline settings.
    Description: Published
    Description: egad074
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Experimental Petrology ; Petrology ; Clinopyroxene ; Thermobarometry ; Experimental Petrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2024-06-28
    Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉 〈jats:p〉This study quantifies the state-of-the-art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multi-model dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–2020 for predictions of Pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended Pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multi-model median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to Pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and Central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for Pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least three months in advance.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2024-07-02
    Description: The joint ESA/NASA Mass-change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC) has the objective to extend time-series from previous gravity missions, including an improvement of accuracy and spatio-temporal resolution. The long-term monitoring of Earth’s gravity field carries information on mass change induced by water cycle, climate change and mass transport processes between atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans and solid Earth. MAGIC will be composed of two satellite pairs flying in different orbit planes. The NASA/DLR-led first pair (P1) is expected to be in a near-polar orbit around 500 km of altitude; while the second ESA-led pair (P2) is expected to be in an inclined orbit of 65°–70° at approximately 400 km altitude. The ESA-led pair P2 Next Generation Gravity Mission shall be launched after P1 in a staggered manner to form the MAGIC constellation. The addition of an inclined pair shall lead to reduction of temporal aliasing effects and consequently of reliance on de-aliasing models and post-processing. The main novelty of the MAGIC constellation is the delivery of mass-change products at higher spatial resolution, temporal (i.e. subweekly) resolution, shorter latency and higher accuracy than the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO). This will pave the way to new science applications and operational services. In this paper, an overview of various fields of science and service applications for hydrology, cryosphere, oceanography, solid Earth, climate change and geodesy is provided. These thematic fields and newly enabled applications and services were analysed in the frame of the initial ESA Science Support activities for MAGIC. The analyses of MAGIC scenarios for different application areas in the field of geosciences confirmed that the double-pair configuration will significantly enlarge the number of observable mass-change phenomena by resolving smaller spatial scales with an uncertainty that satisfies evolved user requirements expressed by international bodies such as IUGG. The required uncertainty levels of dedicated thematic fields met by MAGIC unfiltered Level-2 products will benefit hydrological applications by recovering more than 90 per cent of the major river basins worldwide at 260 km spatial resolution, cryosphere applications by enabling mass change signal separation in the interior of Greenland from those in the coastal zones and by resolving small-scale mass variability in challenging regions such as the Antarctic Peninsula, oceanography applications by monitoring meridional overturning circulation changes on timescales of years and decades, climate applications by detecting amplitude and phase changes of Terrestrial Water Storage after 30 yr in 64 and 56 per cent of the global land areas and solid Earth applications by lowering the Earthquake detection threshold from magnitude 8.8 to magnitude 7.4 with spatial resolution increased to 333 km.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1288–1308
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 1980-05-01
    Description: No Abstract available.
    Print ISSN: 0065-9401
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3646
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Publication Date: 1966-11-01
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    Publication Date: 1966-09-01
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    Publication Date: 1968-08-01
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