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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Modelling of ground acceleration in the near source range: the case of 1976, Friuli earthquake (M = 6.5), northern Italy (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of seismology 1 (1997), S. 305-319 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-157X
    Keywords: kinematic source model ; strong ground motion ; directivity effect ; source geometry effect
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract A mixed statistical-deterministic model of earthquake rupture is developed for evaluating the strong ground motion in the near source range (receiver distance comparable to the fault length). The source parametrization is based on the k-square model and the propagation is computed by asymptotic Green's functions. The method is applied to the case of 1976, Friuli earthquake (M = 6.5) in northern Italy which occurred on a low-dip thrusting fault. Acceleration records at 29 stations are computed for 100 simulations of rupture histories. The mean value map of peak ground accelerations shows clearly a maximum to the south due to the inner geometry and directivity of the source. The variation of the estimated PGA versus the epicentral distance is strongly dependent on azimuth and is not decreasing monotonically. The comparison of these curves with those predicted by empirical acceleration–distance relationships shows discrepancies in the near source distance range. This study shows the importance of considering the complexity of the source rupture process for strong motion estimate in the near source range.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009766214032
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    High frequency strong ground motion modelling in the Catania area associated with the Ibleo-Maltese fault system (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of seismology 3 (1999), S. 279-288 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-157X
    Keywords: complex source model ; site effect ; strong motion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract A hybrid statistical-deterministic approach has been applied to estimate strong ground motion parameters (PGA, spectral ordinates) in South-Eastern Sicily for a M = 7 earthquake. A number of 100 different rupture processes have been simulated along a composite fault system representing two segments of the Ibleo-Maltese fault scarp. Map at regional scale of mean PGA in the 0.5–20 Hz frequency band shows highest values (0.4–0.5 g) nearby and North of Catania, due to a dominant directivity effect. The COV parameter, which expresses the variability of PGA values as a function of source complexity, is higher in the region nearby and South of the town of Augusta, where, depending on the rupture history, rather large PGA values can be observed (〉0.4 g). PGA attenuation curves suggest that an azimuthal variation could be related to the source extent and directivity. The response and pseudo acceleration spectra are computed for different sites in the town of Catania including an approximate 1D site response. Ground motion amplification effects at high frequency (5–20 Hz) are produced by thin shallow layer of soft clay, loose pyroclastites and fill. We observe small amplification effects, in the frequency ranges 2–3 Hz and 5–10 Hz, in sites where recent alluvia reach a thickness of some tens of meters. Otherwise, sites located on outcrops of massive lavas show moderate attenuation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009857730064
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  • 3
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    The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-08
    Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH 〉5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH 〉3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH 〉1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.
    Description: The NEAMTHM18 was prepared in the framework of the European Project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) funded by the mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations with grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26 (https://ec.europa.eu/echo/funding-evaluations/financing-civil-protection-europe/selected-projects/probabilistic-tsunami-hazard_en). The work by INGV authors also benefitted from funding by the INGV-DPC Agreement 2012-2021 (Annex B2).
    Description: Published
    Description: 616594
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 3SR TERREMOTI - Attività dei Centri
    Description: 5SR TERREMOTI - Convenzioni derivanti dall'Accordo Quadro decennale INGV-DPC
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment ; earthquake-generated tsunami ; hazard uncertainty analysis ; ensemble modeling ; maximum inundation height ; NEAM ; 05.08. Risk ; 03.02. Hydrology ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.07. Tectonophysics ; 05.01. Computational geophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Shallow slip amplification and enhanced tsunami hazard unravelled by dynamic simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes (2018)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-10
    Description: The 2011 Tohoku earthquake produced an unexpected large amount of shallow slip greatly contributing to the ensuing tsunami. How frequent are such events? How can they be efficiently modelled for tsunami hazard? Stochastic slip models, which can be computed rapidly, are used to explore the natural slip variability; however, they generally do not deal specifically with shallow slip features. We study the systematic depth-dependence of slip along a thrust fault with a number of 2D dynamic simulations using stochastic shear stress distributions and a geometry based on the cross section of the Tohoku fault. We obtain a probability density for the slip distribution, which varies both with depth, earthquake size and whether the rupture breaks the surface. We propose a method to modify stochastic slip distributions according to this dynamically-derived probability distribution. This method may be efficiently applied to produce large numbers of heterogeneous slip distributions for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis. Using numerous M9 earthquake scenarios, we demonstrate that incorporating the dynamically-derived probability distribution does enhance the conditional probability of exceedance of maximum estimated tsunami wave heights along the Japanese coast. This technique for integrating dynamic features in stochastic models can be extended to any subduction zone and faulting style.
    Description: Published
    Description: 35007
    Description: 2T. Sorgente Sismica
    Description: 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Coseismic displacement waveforms for the 2016 August 24 Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake (central Italy) carried out from high-rate GPS data (2018)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-07
    Description: We used High-Rate sampling Global Positioning System (HRGPS) data from 52 permanent stations to retrieve the coseismic dynamic displacements related to the 2016 August 24 Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake. The HRGPS position time series (named hereinafter "GPSgrams") were obtained with two different analysis strategies of the raw GPS measurements (Precise Point Positioning [PPP] and Double-Difference [DD] positioning approaches using the Gipsy-Oasis II and the TRACK (GAMIT/GLOBK) software, respectively). These GPSgrams show RMS accuracies mostly within 0.3 cm and, for each site, an agreement within 0.5 cm between the two solutions. By using cross-correlation technique, the GPSgrams are also compared to the doubly-integrated strong motion data at sites where the different instrumentations are co-located in order to recognize in the GPSgrams the seismic waves movements. The high values (mostly greater than 0.6) of the cross-correlation functions between these differently-generated waveforms (GPSgrams and the SM displacement time-histories) at the co-located sites confirm the ability of GPS in providing reliable waveforms for seismological applications.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    Effect of Shallow Slip Amplification Uncertainty on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Subduction Zones: Use of Long-Term Balanced Stochastic Slip Models (2020)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-20
    Description: The complexity of coseismic slip distributions influences the tsunami hazard posed by local and, to a certain extent, distant tsunami sources. Large slip concentrated in shallow patches was observed in recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, possibly due to dynamic amplification near the free surface, variable frictional conditions or other factors. We propose a method for incorporating enhanced shallow slip for subduction earthquakes while preventing systematic slip excess at shallow depths over one or more seismic cycles. The method uses the classic k−2 stochastic slip distributions, augmented by shallow slip amplification. It is necessary for deep events with lower slip to occur more often than shallow ones with amplified slip to balance the long-term cumulative slip. We evaluate the impact of this approach on tsunami hazard in the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea adopting a realistic 3D geometry for three subduction zones, by using it to model ~ 150,000 earthquakes with 𝑀𝑤 from 6.0 to 9.0. We combine earthquake rates, depth-dependent slip distributions, tsunami modeling, and epistemic uncertainty through an ensemble modeling technique. We found that the mean hazard curves obtained with our method show enhanced probabilities for larger inundation heights as compared to the curves derived from depth-independent slip distributions. Our approach is completely general and can be applied to any subduction zone in the world.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1497–1520
    Description: 3T. Sorgente sismica
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    Investigating source directivity for the 2012 Ml5.9 Emilia (Northern Italy) earthquake by jointly using High-rate GPS and Strong motion data (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-19
    Description: On May, 20th 2012, the Ferrara and Modena provinces (Emilia Romagna, Northern Italy) were struck by a moderate magnitude earthquake (Ml 5.9). The focal mechanism is consistent with a ~E-W-striking thrust fault. The mainshock was recorded by 29 high-rate sampling (1-Hz) continuous GPS (HRGPS) stations belonging to scientific or commercial networks and by 55 strong motion (SM) stations belonging to INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) and RAN (Rete Accelerometrica Nazionale) networks, respectively. The spatial distribution of both HRGPS and SM stations with respect to the mainshock location allows a satisfactory azimuthal coverage of the area. To investigate directivity effects during the mainshock occurrence, we analyze the spatial variation of the peak ground displacement (PGD) measured either for HRGPS or SM sites, using different methods. For each HRGPS and SM site, we rotated the horizontal time series to the azimuth direction and we estimated the GPS-related and the SM-related peak ground displacement (G-PGD and S-PGD, respectively) retrieved by transverse component. However, in contrast to GPS displacements, the double integration of the SM data can be affected by the presence of drifts and, thus, they have to be corrected by quasi-manual procedures. To more properly compare the G-PGDs to the S-PGDs, we used the response spectrum. A response spectrum is simply the response of a series of oscillators of varying natural frequency, that are forced into motion by the same input. The asymptotic value of the displacement response spectrum is the peak ground displacement. Thus, for each HRGPS and SM site, we computed the value of this asymptotic trend (G-PGDrs and S-PGDrs, respectively). This method allows simple automatic procedures. The consistency of the PGDs derived from HRGPS and SM is also evaluated for sites where the two instruments are collocated. The PGDs obtained by the two different methods and the two different data types suggest a source directivity effect in the SE (~120°-150°N) direction.
    Description: Published
    Description: San Francisco, California (USA)
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: open
    Keywords: HRGPS; strong motion ; source directivity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Combined effect of basin resonance and source directivity: implications for long period hazard in the Apennines, central Italy (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-24
    Description: During the three strongest shocks of the 1997 Umbria-Marche, central Italy, seismic sequence, long-period (T 〉 1 s) spectral ordinates showed large variations in intermountain basins in the Apennines. In particular, at a strong-motion station in the Rieti plain, about 65 km south of epicenters, long-period response spectra during the Mw 5.6 and 5.7 shocks had larger amplitudes than the Mw 6.0 ones; in contrast, in the Gubbio basin, about 40 km northwest of the epicenters, the Mw 6.0 shock had spectral ordinates exceeding those of the Mw 5.6 and 5.7 shocks by more than a factor of 10 at long periods. Since focal mechanisms were similar for the causative earthquakes and the difference in magnitude and source-to-receiver-path is small, these observations can only be explained in terms of a different source directivity. The availability of a rock station on the Gubbio basin edge and other moderate-magnitude earthquakes of the same seismic sequence allows us to separate the local amplification term from the varying contribution of source directivity for the different shocks. Their combination is responsible for long-period ground displacements significantly larger than 10 cm at Mw 6.0 and 40-km source distance. Since source directivity is a very recurrent feature for normal-faulting earthquakes of the Apennines (evident during the recent L’Aquila earthquakes even at magnitudes as small as 3), these results arise a concern for many intermountain basins located in a geographical position favorable to a significant hazard increase due to source directivity. Furthermore, the performance of different Ground Motion Prediction Equations has been explored as well as of corrections based on various source directivity models.
    Description: Published
    Description: University of California Santa Barbara
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: open
    Keywords: Source directivity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Testing the improvement of ShakeMaps using f inite-f ault models and synthetic seismograms (2011)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: ShakeMap package uses empirical ground motion prediction equations (GM PEs) to estimate the ground motion where recorded data are not available. Recorded and estimated values are then interpolated in order to produce a shaking map associated to the considered event. Anyway GMPEs account only for average characteristics of source and wave propagation processes. Within the framework of the DPC-INGV S3 project (2007-09), we evaluate whether the inclusion of directivity effects in GMPEs (companion paper Spagnuolo et al., 2010) or the use of synthetic seismograms from finite-fault rupture models may improve the ShakeMap evaluation. An advantage of using simulated motions from kinematic rupture models is that source effects, as rupture directivity, are directly included in the synthetics. This is particularly interesting in Italy where the regional GMPEs, based on a few number of near-source records for moderate-to-large earthquakes, are not reliable for estimating ground motion in the vicinity of the source. In this work we investigated how and if the synthetic seismograms generated with finite-fault models can be used in place of (or in addition to) GMPEs within the ShakeMap methodology. We assumed a description of the rupture model with gradually increasing details, from a simple point source to a kinematic rupture history obtained from inversion of strong-motion data. According to the available information synthetic seismograms are calculated with methods that account for the different degree of approximation in source properties. We chose the M w 6.9 2008 Iwate-M iyagi (Japan) earthquake as a case study. This earthquake has been recorded by a very large number of stations and the corresponding ShakeMap relies almost totally on the recorded ground motions. Starting from this ideal case, we removed a number of stations in order to evaluate the deviations from the reference map and the sensitivity of the map to the number of stations used. The removed data are then substituted with synthetic values calculated assuming different source approximations, and the resulting maps are compared to the original ones (containing observed data only). The use of synthetic seismograms computed for finite-fault rupture models produces, in general, an improvement of the calculated ShakeMaps, especially when synthetics are used to integrate real data. When real data are not available and ShakeMap is estimated using GMPEs only, the improvement adding simulated values depends on the considered strong-motion parameters.
    Description: Published
    Description: Montpellier , France
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: open
    Keywords: Shakemaps ; synthetic seismograms ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Physics‐Based Broadband Ground‐Motion Simulations for ProbableMw≥7.0 Earthquakes in the Marmara Sea Region (Turkey) (2018)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-02-19
    Description: The city of Istanbul is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in the Mediterranean region. An important source of such increased risk is the high probability of large earthquake occurrence during the coming years, which stands at about 65% likelihood owing to the existing seismic gap and the post-1999 earthquake stress transfer at the western portion of the North Anatolian fault zone. In this study, we simulated hybrid broadband time histories from selected earthquakes having magnitude Mw 〉7:0 in the Sea of Marmara within 10–20 km of Istanbul, the most probable scenarios for simulated generation of the devastating 1509 event in this region. Physics-based rupture scenarios, which may be an indication of potential future events, are adopted to estimate the ground-motion characteristics and its variability in the region. Two simulation techniques are used to compute a realistic time series, considering generic rock site conditions. The first is a full 3D wave propagation method used for generating low-frequency seismograms, and the second is a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency high-frequency seismograms. Dynamic rupture is generated and computed using a boundary integral equation method, and the propagation in the medium is realized through a finite-difference approach. The results from the two simulation techniques are then merged by performing a weighted summation at intermediate frequencies to calculate a broadband synthetic time series. The simulated hybrid broadband ground motions are validated by comparing peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity (PGV), and spectral accelerations (5% damping) at different periods with the ground-motion prediction equations in the region. Our simulations reveal strong rupture directivity and supershear rupture effects over a large spatial extent, which generate extremely high near-fault motions exceeding the 250 cm=s PGV along the entire length of the ruptured fault.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1307-1323
    Description: 5T. Modelli di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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