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  • Articles  (45,692)
  • Oxford University Press  (23,767)
  • American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)  (10,987)
  • Cambridge University Press  (10,938)
  • 2020-2024  (542)
  • 1985-1989  (45,150)
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  • 1
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    Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and Their Services (2022)
    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/, Cambridge University Press, pp. 197-377
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-04-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 2
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    Evolution of the number of communicative civilizations in the Galaxy: implications on Fermi paradox (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: It has been recently proposed DeVito [(2019) On the meaning of Fermi's paradox. Futures, 389–414] that a minimal number of contacts with alien radio-communicative civilizations could be justified by their logarithmically slow rate of growth in the Galaxy. Here we further develop this approach to the Fermi paradox, with the purpose of expanding the ensemble of the possible styles of growth that are consistent with the hypothesis of a minimal number of contacts. Generalizing the approach in DeVito (2019), we show that a logarithmic style of growth is still found. We also find that a style of growth following a power law would be admissible, however characterized by an exponent less than one, hence describing a sublinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, still qualitatively in agreement with DeVito (2019). No solutions are found indicating a superlinear increase in the number of communicative civilizations, following for example an exponentially diverging law, which would cause, in the long run, an unsustainable proliferation. Although largely speculative, our findings corroborate the idea that a sublinear rate of increase in the number of communicative civilizations in the Galaxy could constitute a further resolution of Fermi paradox, implying a constant and minimal – but not zero – number of contacts.
    Description: Published
    Description: 314-319
    Description: 1TR. Georisorse
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Fault imaging at Mt Pollino (Italy) from relative location of microearthquakes (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: Relative location of microearthquakes that occurred at Mt Pollino (Italy) from 2011 to 2013 have been analyzed with the aim of a detailed imaging of the geometry of active faults. We identified 27 clusters composed of a number of earthquakes from 9 to 33, with local magnitude in the range 0.6–2.7. The relative location shows that the distribution of hypocentres in each cluster is characterized by extension from few tens of meters to at most 350 m. For each cluster the hypocentre distribution was fitted by a plane to infer the fault orientation, and results were compared with the fault plane solutions corresponding to the focal mechanism of earthquakes of the same cluster. The comparison shows a good agreement in most of the cases. The relative location analysis, generally applied to earthquakes with similar waveform, has been improved to permit also the relative location of earthquakes characterized by not similar signals. To achieve this purpose a modified procedure that overcome the condition of very similar waveforms has been applied to estimate the time delay between first pulses of the master events. The relative location of master events of all clusters shows a precise imaging of the relative position of all analysed sources and allows also to follow with high accuracy the evolution in time of the seismic swarm within the selected periods. The hypocentre position of master events and the nearly parallel fitting planes of any clusters suggest that most of the analyzed earthquakes were produced by different patches of the same fault. The final results depict a main fault plane characterized by NW–SE strike, dip of about 35–45° and depth between 4.5 and 6.5 km b.s.l. Focal mechanisms, used also to evaluate the local stress field, are mostly of normal type with few strike slip solutions for the shallowest events. This result is in good agreement with the local tectonic stress regime that is characterized by predominant NE–SW transtension, as inferred from structural, seismological and geophysical data.
    Description: Published
    Description: 637–648
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Persistence, memory, correlations, clustering, Spatial analysis, Crustal imaging, Earthquake source observations, Seismicity and tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Physics-based simulation of sequences with multiple main shocks in Central Italy (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-26
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved
    Description: The application of a physics-based earthquake simulator to Central Italy allowed the compilation of a synthetic seismic catalogue spanning 100 000 yr, containing more than 300 000 M ≥ 4.0 simulated earthquakes, without the limitations that real catalogues suffer in terms of completeness, homogeneity and time duration. The seismogenic model upon which we applied the simulator code was derived from version 3.2.1 of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/), selecting, and modifying where appropriate, all the fault systems that are recognized in the portion of Central Italy considered in this study, with a total of 54 faults. Besides tectonic stress loading and static stress transfer as in the previous versions, the physical model on which the latest version of our simulation algorithm is based also includes the Rate and State constitutive law that helps to reproduce Omori’s law. One further improvement in our code was also the introduction of trapezoidalshaped faults that perform better than known faults. The resulting synthetic seismic catalogue exhibits typical magnitude, space and time features which are comparable to those in real observations. These features include the total seismic moment rate, the earthquake magnitude distribution, and the short- and medium-term earthquake clustering. A typical aspect of the observed seismicity in Central Italy, aswell as across thewhole Italian landmass and elsewhere, is the occurrence of earthquake sequences characterized by multiple main shocks of similar magnitude. These sequences are different from the usual earthquake clusters and aftershock sequences, since they have at least two main shocks of similar magnitude. Therefore, special attentionwas devoted to verifyingwhether the simulated catalogue includes this notable aspect. For this purpose, we developed a computer code especially for this work to count the number of multiple events contained in a seismic catalogue under a quantitative definition. We found that the last version of the simulator code produces a slightly larger number of multiple events than the previous versions, but not as large as in the real catalogue. A possible reason for this drawback is the lack of components such as pore-pressure changes due to fluid-diffusion in the adopted physical model.
    Description: Published
    Description: 526–542
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Driving forces of Antarctic krill abundance (2023)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Science Advances, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 9(50), ISSN: 2375-2548
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-18
    Description: Antarctic krill, crucial to the Southern Ocean ecosystem and a vital fisheries resource, is endangered by climate change. Identifying drivers of krill biomass is therefore essential for determining catch limits and designating protection zones. We present a modeling approach to pinpointing effects of sea surface temperature, ice cover, chlorophyll levels, climate indices, and intraspecific competition. Our study reveals that larval recruitment is driven by both competition among age classes and chlorophyll levels. In addition, while milder ice and temperature in spring and summer favor reproduction and early larval survival, both larvae and juveniles strongly benefit from heavier ice and colder temperatures in winter. We conclude that omitting top-down control of resources by krill is only acceptable for retrospective or single-year prognostic models that use field chlorophyll data but that incorporating intraspecific competition is essential for longer-term forecasts. Our findings can guide future krill modeling strategies, reinforcing the sustainability of this keystone species.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 6
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    Cross-site comparisons of dryland ecosystem response to climate change in the US long-term ecological research network (2023)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hudson, A. R., Peters, D. P. C., Blair, J. M., Childers, D. L., Doran, P. T., Geil, K., Gooseff, M., Gross, K. L., Haddad, N. M., Pastore, M. A., Rudgers, J. A., Sala, O., Seabloom, E. W., & Shaver, G. Cross-site comparisons of dryland ecosystem response to climate change in the US long-term ecological research network. Bioscience, 72(9), (2022): 889–907, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biab134.
    Description: Long-term observations and experiments in diverse drylands reveal how ecosystems and services are responding to climate change. To develop generalities about climate change impacts at dryland sites, we compared broadscale patterns in climate and synthesized primary production responses among the eight terrestrial, nonforested sites of the United States Long-Term Ecological Research (US LTER) Network located in temperate (Southwest and Midwest) and polar (Arctic and Antarctic) regions. All sites experienced warming in recent decades, whereas drought varied regionally with multidecadal phases. Multiple years of wet or dry conditions had larger effects than single years on primary production. Droughts, floods, and wildfires altered resource availability and restructured plant communities, with greater impacts on primary production than warming alone. During severe regional droughts, air pollution from wildfire and dust events peaked. Studies at US LTER drylands over more than 40 years demonstrate reciprocal links and feedbacks among dryland ecosystems, climate-driven disturbance events, and climate change.
    Description: Funding was provided by the USDA-ARS SCINet Big Data Project (grant no. 0500–00093–001–00-D), and the National Science Foundation US LTER Program to New Mexico State University for the Jornada Basin (grant no. DEB 20–25166), Kansas State University for the Konza Prairie (grant no. DEB 2025849), the Kellogg Biological Station (grant no. DEB 1832042), Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve (grants no. DEB-1234162 and no. DEB-1831944), ARC (grant no. DEB-1637459), MCM (grant no. OPP-1637708), CAP (grant no. DEB-1832016), and SEV (grant no. DEB-1655499). Support was also provided by the Minnesota Supercomputer Institute and the University of Minnesota, Michigan State University AgBioResearch.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
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    A Review of Arctic–Subarctic Ocean Linkages: Past Changes, Mechanisms, and Future Projections (2023)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 2, ISSN: 2771-0378
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-08
    Description: 〈jats:p〉Arctic Ocean gateway fluxes play a crucial role in linking the Arctic with the global ocean and affecting climate and marine ecosystems. We reviewed past studies on Arctic–Subarctic ocean linkages and examined their changes and driving mechanisms. Our review highlights that radical changes occurred in the inflows and outflows of the Arctic Ocean during the 2010s. Specifically, the Pacific inflow temperature in the Bering Strait and Atlantic inflow temperature in the Fram Strait hit record highs, while the Pacific inflow salinity in the Bering Strait and Arctic outflow salinity in the Davis and Fram straits hit record lows. Both the ocean heat convergence from lower latitudes to the Arctic and the hydrological cycle connecting the Arctic with Subarctic seas were stronger in 2000–2020 than in 1980–2000. CMIP6 models project a continuing increase in poleward ocean heat convergence in the 21st century, mainly due to warming of inflow waters. They also predict an increase in freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean, with the largest increase in freshwater export expected to occur in the Fram Strait due to both increased ocean volume export and decreased salinity. Fram Strait sea ice volume export hit a record low in the 2010s and is projected to continue to decrease along with Arctic sea ice decline. We quantitatively attribute the variability of the volume, heat, and freshwater transports in the Arctic gateways to forcing within and outside the Arctic based on dedicated numerical simulations and emphasize the importance of both origins in driving the variability.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 8
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    Antarctic marine life under pressure (2022)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 378(6617), pp. 230-230, ISSN: 0036-8075
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-05-10
    Description: 〈jats:p〉 Next week, the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) convenes in Hobart, Tasmania, to examine the state of marine life in the Southern Ocean. As part of the Antarctic Treaty System, this convention entered into force in 1982, and its focus on the region’s environmental integrity has never been more important, given the increasing effects of climate change and commercial fishing. An important focus over the past 40 years has been Antarctic krill, 〈jats:italic〉Euphausia superba〈/jats:italic〉 (hereafter krill), a keystone species that helps to hold this marine ecosystem together. Climate and fishing stresses should prompt the CCAMLR to address whether management of krill fishing is at a level that protects the Southern Ocean from losing its overall balance of marine life and the oceanic processes that regulate global climate. 〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 9
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    Genesis of Oceanic Oxide Gabbros and Gabbronorites During Reactive Melt Migration at Transform Walls (Doldrums Megatransform System; 7–8°N Mid-Atlantic Ridge) (2023)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-25
    Description: The Doldrums Megatransform System (~7–8°N, Mid-Atlantic Ridge) shows a complex architecture including four intra-transform ridge segments bounded by five active transform faults. Lower crustal rocks are exposed along the Doldrums and Vernadsky transform walls that bound the northernmost intra-transform ridge segment. The recovered gabbros are characterized by variably evolved chemical compositions, ranging from olivine gabbros to gabbronorites and oxide gabbros, and lack the most primitive gabbroic endmembers (troctolites, dunites). Notably, the numerous recovered gabbronorites show up to 20 vol. % of coarse-grained orthopyroxene. Although covariations in mineral and bulk-rock chemical compositions of the olivine and oxide gabbros define trends of crystallization from a common parental melt, the gabbronorites show elevated light over heavy rare earth elements (LREE/HREE) ratios in both bulk-rock and mineral compositions. These features are not consistent with a petrological evolution driven solely by fractional crystallization, which cannot produce the preferential enrichments in highly incompatible elements documented in the orthopyroxene-bearing lithologies. We suggest that gabbronorites crystallized from evolved melts percolating and partly assimilating a pre-existing olivine gabbro matrix. Saturation in orthopyroxene and selective enrichments in LREE relative to M-HREE are both triggered by an increase in assimilated crystal mass, which ranges from negligible in the oxide-gabbros to abundant in the gabbronorites. This melt–rock reaction process has been related to lateral melt migration beneath ridge-transform intersections, where variably evolved melts injected from the peripheral parts of the melting region towards the transform zone may interact with a gabbroic crystal mush to form abundant oxide-bearing gabbronoritic associations.
    Description: Published
    Description: egac086
    Description: 3A. Geofisica marina e osservazioni multiparametriche a fondo mare
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Mechanism of the 2017 M-w 6.3 Pasni earthquake and its significance for future major earthquakes in the eastern Makran (2023)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-17
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2022. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Oxford University Press for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Journal International 231(2),(2022): 1434–1445, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac257.
    Description: Makran subduction zone is very active with ∼38 mm yr−1 convergence rate and has experienced great earthquakes in the past. The latest great earthquake of 1945 Mw 8.1 event also triggered a large tsunami and led to ∼4000 casualties. However, due to incomplete historical seismicity records and poor modern instrumentation, earthquake mechanism, co-seismic slip and tsunami characteristics in Makran remain unclear. On 2017 February 17, an Mw 6.3 earthquake rattled offshore Pasni of Pakistan in the eastern Makran, marking the largest event after the 1945 Mw 8.1 earthquake with good geodetic and geophysical data coverage. We use a combination of seismicity, multibeam bathymetry, seismic profile, InSAR measurements and tide-gauge observation to investigate the seismogenic structure, co-seismic deformation, tsunami characteristics of this event and its implication for future major earthquakes. Our results indicate that (1) the earthquake occurred on the shallow-dipping (3°–4°) megathrust; (2) the megathrust co-seismically slipped 15 cm and caused ∼2–4 cm ground subsidence and uplift at Pasni; (3) our tsunami modelling reproduces the observed 5-cm-high small tsunami waveforms. The Pasni earthquake rupture largely overlaps the 1945 slip patch and disturbs the west and east megathrust segments that have not ruptured yet at least since 1765. With such stress perturbation and possible stress evolution effect from the 1945 earthquake, the unruptured patches may fail in the future. This study calls for more preparedness in mitigating earthquake and associated hazards in the eastern Makran.
    Description: his study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 42076059, 41890813, 41976066 and 41976064), the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou) (No. GML2019ZD0205), Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos. Y4SL021001, QYZDY-SSW-DQC005, 131551KYSB20200021, ISEE2021PY03, 133244KYSB20180029 and E1SL3C02), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (No. 2021B1515020098) and China–Pakistan Joint Research Centre on Earth Sciences.
    Keywords: Tsunamis ; Earthquake dynamics ; Earthquake hazards ; Seismicity and tectonics ; Subduction zone processes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 11
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    Strong ground-motion prediction equations from induced earthquakes in St. Gallen geothermal field, Switzerland (2023)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-03-15
    Description: Ground shaking, whether it is due to natural or induced earthquakes, has always been a matter of concern since it correlates with structural/non-structural damage and can culminate in human anxiety. Industrial activities such as water injection, gas sequestration and waste fluid disposals, promote induced seismicity and consequent ground shaking that can hinder ongoing activities. Therefore, keeping in mind the importance of timely evaluation of a seismic hazard and its mitigation for societal benefits, the present study proposes specifically designed ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from induced earthquakes in the St. Gallen geothermal area, Switzerland. The data analysed in this study consist of 343 earthquakes with magnitude −1.17 ≤ ML, corr ≤ 3.5 and hypocentral distance between 4 and 15 km. The proposed study is one of the first to incorporate ground motions from negative magnitude earthquakes for the development of GMPEs. The GMPEs are inferred with a two-phase approach. In the first phase, a reference model is obtained by considering the effect of source and medium properties on the ground motion. In the second phase the final model is obtained by including a site/station effect. The comparison between the GMPEs obtained in the present study with GMPEs developed for the other induced seismicity environments highlights a mismatch that is ascribed to differences in regional seismic environment and local site conditions of the respective regions. This suggests that, when dealing with induced earthquakes, GMPEs specific for the study should be inferred and used for both monitoring purposes and seismic hazard analyses.
    Description: Published
    Description: 820–832
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
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    Chasing iron bioavailability in the Southern Ocean: Insights from Phaeocystis antarctica and iron speciation (2023)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Science Advances, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 9(26), pp. eadf9696-eadf9696, ISSN: 2375-2548
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-01
    Description: Dissolved iron (dFe) availability limits the uptake of atmospheric CO2 by the Southern Ocean (SO) biological pump. Hence, any change in bioavailable dFe in this region can directly influence climate. On the basis of Fe uptake experiments with Phaeocystis antarctica, we show that the range of dFe bioavailability in natural samples is wider (〈1 to ~200% compared to free inorganic Fe′) than previously thought, with higher bioavailability found near glacial sources. The degree of bioavailability varied regardless of in situ dFe concentration and depth, challenging the consensus that sole dFe concentrations can be used to predict Fe uptake in modeling studies. Further, our data suggest a disproportionately major role of biologically mediated ligands and encourage revisiting the role of humic substances in influencing marine Fe biogeochemical cycling in the SO. Last, we describe a linkage between in situ dFe bioavailability and isotopic signatures that, we anticipate, will stimulate future research.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 13
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    Improving Arctic sea-ice thickness estimates with the assimilation of CryoSat-2 summer observations (2023)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 2, ISSN: 2771-0378
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-13
    Description: 〈jats:p〉Rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice has had substantial impacts on the Earth system. Therefore, reliably estimating the Arctic sea-ice thickness (SIT) using a combination of available observations and numerical modeling is urgently needed. Here, for the first time, we assimilate the latest CryoSat-2 summer SIT data into a coupled ice-ocean model. In particular, an incremental analysis update scheme is implemented to overcome the discontinuity resulting from the combined assimilation of biweekly SIT and daily sea-ice concentration (SIC) data. Along with improved estimates of sea-ice volume, our SIT estimates corrected the overestimation of SIT produced by the reanalysis that assimilates only SIC in summer in areas where the sea ice is roughest and experiences strong deformation, e.g., around the Fram Strait and Greenland. This study suggests that the newly developed CryoSat-2 SIT product, when assimilated properly using our approach, has great potential for Arctic sea-ice simulation and prediction.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 14
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    Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial (2023)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 382(6677), pp. 1384-1389, ISSN: 0036-8075
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 15
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    Upper mantle deformation signatures of craton–orogen interaction in the Carpathian–Pannonian region from SKS anisotropy analysis (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-10-31
    Description: Since the Mesozoic, central and eastern European tectonics have been dominated by the closure of the Tethyan Ocean as the African and European plates collided. In the Miocene, the edge of the East European Craton and Moesian Platform were reworked in collision during the Carpathian orogeny and lithospheric extension formed the Pannonian Basin. To investigate the mantle deformation signatures associated with this complex collisional-extensional system, we carry out SKS splitting analysis at 123 broad-band seismic stations in the region. We compare our measurements with estimates of lithospheric thickness and recent seismic tomography models to test for correlation with mantle heterogeneities. Reviewing splitting delay times in light of xenolith measurements of anisotropy yields estimates of anisotropic layer thickness. Fast polarization directions are mostly NW–SE oriented across the seismically slow West Carpathians and Pannonian Basin and are independent of geological boundaries, absolute plate motion direction or an expected palaeo-slab roll-back path. Instead, they are systematically orthogonal to maximum stress directions, implying that the indenting Adria Plate, the leading deformational force in Central Europe, reset the upper-mantle mineral fabric in the past 5 Ma beneath the Pannonian Basin, overprinting the anisotropic signature of earlier tectonic events. Towards the east, fast polarization directions are perpendicular to steep gradients of lithospheric thickness and align along the edges of fast seismic anomalies beneath the Precambrian-aged Moesian Platform in the South Carpathians and the East European Craton, supporting the idea that craton roots exert a strong influence on the surrounding mantle flow. Within the Moesian Platform, SKS measurements become more variable with Fresnel zone arguments indicating a shallow fossil lithospheric source of anisotropy likely caused by older tectonic deformation frozen in the Precambrian. In the Southeast Carpathian corner, in the Vrancea Seismic Zone, a lithospheric fragment that sinks into the mantle is sandwiched between two slow anomalies, but smaller SKS delay times reveal weaker anisotropy occurs mainly to the NW side, consistent with asymmetric upwelling adjacent to a slab, slower mantle velocities and recent volcanism.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2105–2118
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Seismic anisotropy ; geodynamics ; Seismic anisotropy and geodynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 16
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    Broad-band ground-motion simulation of 2016 Amatrice earthquake, Central Italy (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-21
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: On 24 August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm s–2 on E–W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broad-band seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al . The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broadband synthetic time-series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1753–1779
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 17
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    Rapid Prediction of Earthquake Ground Shaking Intensity Using Raw Waveform Data and a Convolutional Neural Network (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-16
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved
    Description: This study describes a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) based technique for the prediction of intensity measurements (IMs) of ground shaking. The input data to the CNN model consists of multistation 3C broadband and accelerometric waveforms recorded during the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence for M $\ge$ 3.0. We find that the CNN is capable of predicting accurately the IMs at stations far from the epicenter and that have not yet recorded the maximum ground shaking when using a 10 s window starting at the earthquake origin time. The CNN IM predictions do not require previous knowledge of the earthquake source (location and magnitude). Comparison between the CNN model predictions and the predictions obtained with Bindi et al. (2011) GMPE (which require location and magnitude) has shown that the CNN model features similar error variance but smaller bias. Although the technique is not strictly designed for earthquake early warning, we found that it can provide useful estimates of ground motions within 15-20 sec after earthquake origin time depending on various setup elements (e.g., times for data transmission, computation, latencies). The technique has been tested on raw data without any initial data pre-selection in order to closely replicate real-time data streaming. When noise examples were included with the earthquake data, the CNN was found to be stable predicting accurately the ground shaking intensity corresponding to the noise amplitude.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1379–1389
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Physics - Geophysics; Physics - Geophysics ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 18
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    Understanding seismic path biases and magmatic activity at Mount St Helens volcano before its 2004 eruption (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-16
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: In volcanoes, topography, shallow heterogeneity and even shallow morphology can substan- tially modify seismic coda signals. Coda waves are an essential tool to monitor eruption dynamics and model volcanic structures jointly and independently from velocity anomalies: it is thus fundamental to test their spatial sensitivity to seismic path effects. Here, we apply the Multiple Lapse Time Window Analysis (MLTWA) to measure the relative importance of scattering attenuation vs absorption at Mount St Helens volcano before its 2004 erup- tion. The results show the characteristic dominance of scattering attenuation in volcanoes at lower frequencies (3–6 Hz), while absorption is the primary attenuation mechanism at 12 and 18 Hz. Scattering attenuation is similar but seismic absorption is one order of magnitude lower than at open-conduit volcanoes, like Etna and Kilauea, a typical behaviour of a (rela- tively) cool magmatic plumbing system. Still, the seismic albedo (measuring the ratio between seismic energy emitted and received from the area) is anomalously high (0.95) at 3 Hz. A radiative-transfer forward model of far- and near-field envelopes confirms this is due to strong near-receiver scattering enhancing anomalous phases in the intermediate and late coda across the 1980 debris avalanche and central crater. Only above this frequency and in the far-field diffusion onsets at late lapse times. The scattering and absorption parameters derived from MLTWA are used as inputs to construct 2-D frequency-dependent bulk sensitivity kernels for the S-wave coda in the multiple-scattering (using the Energy Transport Equations—ETE) and diffusive (AD, independent of MLTWA results) regimes. At 12 Hz, high coda-attenuation anomalies characterize the eastern side of the volcano using both kernels, in spatial correla- tion with low-velocity anomalies from literature. At 3 Hz, the anomalous albedo, the forward modelling, and the results of the tomographic imaging confirm that shallow heterogeneity beneath the extended 1980 debris-avalanche and crater enhance anomalous intermediate and late coda phases, mapping shallow geological contrasts. We remark the effect this may have on coda-dependent source inversion and tomography, currently used across the world to image and monitor volcanoes. At Mount St Helens, higher frequencies and deep borehole data are necessary to reconstruct deep volcanic structures with coda waves.
    Description: Scottish Alliance for Geosciences Environment and Society and the Kleinman Grant for Volcano Research
    Description: Published
    Description: 169-188
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: NorthAmerica ; Wave scattering and diffraction. ; Codawaves ; Seismicattenuation ; Seismic tomography ; Volcano seismology ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 19
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    Methodology to identify the reference rock sites in regions of medium-to-high seismicity: an application in Central Italy (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-14
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: To evaluate the site response using both empirical approaches (e.g. standard spectral ratio, ground motion models (GMMs), generalized inversion techniques, etc.) and numerical 1-D/2-D analyses, the definition of the reference motion, that is the ground motion recorded at stations unaffected by site-effects due to topographic, stratigraphic or basin effects, is needed. The main objective of this work is to define a robust strategy to identify the seismic stations that can be considered as reference rock sites, using six proxies for the site response: three proxies are related to the analysis of geophysical and seismological data (the repeatable site term from the residual analysis, the resonance frequencies from horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios on noise or earthquake signals, the average shear wave velocity in the first 30 m); the remaining ones concern geomorphological and installation features (outcropping rocks or stiff soils, flat topography and absence of interaction with structures). We introduce a weighting scheme to take into account the availability and the quality of the site information, as well as the fulfillment of the criterion associated to each proxy. We also introduce a hierarchical index, to take into account the relevance of the proposed proxies in the description of the site effects, and an acceptance threshold for reference rock sites identification. The procedure is applied on a very large data set, composed by accelerometric and velocimetric waveforms, recorded in Central Italy in the period 2008–2018. This data set is composed by more than 30 000 waveforms relative to 450 earthquakes in the magnitude range 3.2–6.5 and recorded by more than 450 stations. A total of 36 out of 133 candidate stations are identified as reference sites: the majority of them are installed on rock with flat topography, but this condition is not sufficient to guarantee the absence of amplifications, especially at high frequencies. Seismological analyses are necessary to exclude stations affected by resonances. We test the impact of using these sites by calibrating a GMMs. The results show that for reference rock sites the median predictions are reduced down to about 45 per cent at short periods in comparison to the generic rock motions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2053–2067
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 20
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    Arrival-angle effects on two-receiver measurements of phase velocity (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-14
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: We compile a data set of Rayleigh-wave phase velocities between pairs of stations, based on teleseismic events located on the same great circle as the two stations. We validate our observations against dispersion estimates based on ambient-noise cross correlations at the same station pairs. Discrepancies between the results of the two methods can in principle be explained by deviations in the wave propagation path between earthquake and receivers, due to lateral heterogeneity in the Earth’s structure, but the latter effect has, so far, not been precisely quantified nor corrected for. We implement an algorithm to measure the arrival angle of earthquake-generated surface waves and correct the dispersion measurements accordingly. Application to a data set from the Central-Western Mediterranean shows that the arrival-angle correction almost entirely accounts for the discrepancy in question, decreasing significantly the velocity bias for a wide range of periods.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1838–1844
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 21
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    3-D Q-coda attenuation structure at Mt. Etna (Italy) (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-16
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: Three dimensional attenuation images of Mt Etna volcano obtained by the analysis of Q-coda from local volcano-tectonic earthquakes are presented in this work. Seismic sources are confined inside the Etna structure with a maximum focal depth of 35 km below the sea level. The space distribution of the attenuation values was calculated by using 3-D weighting functions derived by the sensitivity kernels of Pacheco & Snieders and approximated by a polynomial interpolation, represented in the maps by using a backprojection method. Data were analyzed in four bands with central frequency placed at 1.5, 3, 6 and 12 Hz, respectively. We observed a frequency dependence of Q-coda with values that range from 55 at 1.5 Hz to 218 at 12 Hz. Q-coda space distribution in the Etna area shows almost uniformity in the average attenuation in the first 35 km below the surface. The images were derived with a resolution of 5 km. We observe as one of our main conclusions that Q-coda attenuation space anomalies are correlated with the areas of highest structural heterogeneities and are distributed along the well-known tectonic structures which characterize the crust in Mt Etna region. Previous and numerous velocity and attenuation images describing the structure of Mt Etna support our main conclusion: high Q-coda volumes almost coincide with the zones marked by high velocity and relative low total attenuation for direct waves.
    Description: Published
    Description: 544–558
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 22
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    Source modelling and strong ground motion simulations for the 24 January 2020, Mw 6.8 Elazığ earthquake, Turkey (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-29
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: On 24 January 2020 an Mw 6.8 earthquake occurred at 20:55 local time (17:55 UTC) in eastern Turkey, close to the town of Sivrice in the Elazığ province, causing widespread considerable seismic damage in buildings. In this study, we analyse the main features of the rupture process and the seismic ground shaking during the Elazığ earthquake. We first use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) interferograms (Sentinel-1 satellites) to constrain the fault geometry and the coseismic slip distribution of the causative fault segment. Then, we utilize this information to analyse the ground motion characteristics of the main shock in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral accelerations. The absence of seismic registrations in near-field for this earthquake imposes major constraints on the computation of seismic ground motion estimations in the study area. To do this, we have used a stochastic finite-fault simulation method to generate high-frequency ground motions synthetics for the Mw 6.8 Elazığ 2020 earthquake. Finally, we evaluate the potential state of stress of the unruptured portions of the causative fault segment as well as of adjacent segments, using the Coulomb stress failure function variations. Modelling of geodetic data shows that the 2020 Elazığ earthquake ruptured two major slip patches (for a total length of about 40 km) located along the Pütürge segment of the well-known left-lateral strike-slip East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), with up to 2.3 m of slip and an estimated geodetic moment of 1.70 × 1019 Nm (equivalent to a Mw 6.8). The position of the hypocentre supports the evidence of marked WSW rupture directivity during the main shock. In terms of ground motion characteristics, we observe that the high-frequency stochastic ground motion simulations have a good capability to reproduce the source complexity and capture the ground motion attenuation decay as a function of distance, up to the 200 km. We also demonstrate that the design spectra corresponding to 475 yr return period, provided by the new Turkish building code is not exceeded by the simulated seismograms in the epicentral area where there are no strong motion stations and no recordings available. Finally, based on the Coulomb stress distribution computation, we find that the Elazığ main shock increased the stress level of the westernmost part of the Pütürge fault and of the adjacent Palu segment and as a result of an off-fault lobe.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1054–1068
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 23
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    Ontogeny of osmoregulation of the Asian shore crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus at an invaded site of Europe (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    In:  EPIC3Conservation Physiology, Oxford University Press, 9(1), ISSN: 2051-1434
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-01
    Description: We studied the ontogeny of osmoregulation of the Asian shore crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus at an invaded area in the North Sea. H. sanguineus is native to Japan and China but has successfully invaded the Atlantic coast of North America and Europe. In the invaded areas, H. sanguineus is becoming a keystone species as driver of community structure and the adults compete with the shore crab Carcinus maenas. Strong osmoregulatory abilities may confer the potential to use and invade coastal areas already earlier in the life cycle. We reared larvae and first juveniles at 24°C in seawater from hatching to intermoult of each developmental stage (zoea I-V, megalopa, crab I). We exposed each stage to a range of salinities (0–39 ppt) for 24 h, and then we quantified haemolymph osmolality, using nano-osmometry. In addition, we quantified osmolality in field-collected adults after acclimation to the test salinities for 6 days. Larvae of H. sanguineus were able to hyper-osmoregulate at low salinities (15 and 20 ppt) over the complete larval development, although the capacity was reduced at the zoeal stage V; at higher salinities (25–39 ppt), all larval stages were osmoconformers. The capacity to slightly hypo-regulate at high salinity appeared in the first juvenile. Adults were able to hyper-osmoregulate at low salinities and hypo-regulate at concentrated seawater (39 ppt). H. sanguineus showed a strong capacity to osmoregulate as compared to its native competitor C. maenas, which only hyper-regulates at the first and last larval stages and does not hypo-regulate at the juvenile-adult stages. The capacity of H. sanguineus to osmoregulate over most of the life cycle should underpin the potential to invade empty niches in the coastal zone (characterized by low salinity and high temperatures). Osmoregulation abilities over the whole life cycle also constitute a strong competitive advantage over C. maenas.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 24
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    Caribbean salinity anomalies contributed to variable North Atlantic circulation and climate during the Common Era (2023)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Science Advances, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 9(44), pp. eadg2639-eadg2639, ISSN: 2375-2548
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-24
    Description: Paleoceanographic reconstructions show that the strength of North Atlantic currents decreased during the Little Ice Age. In contrast, the role of ocean circulation in climate regulation during earlier historical epochs of the Common Era (C.E.) remains unclear. Here, we reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity in the Caribbean Basin for the past 1700 years using the isotopic and elemental composition of planktic foraminifera tests. Centennial-scale SST and salinity variations in the Caribbean co-occur with (hydro)climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere and are linked to a North Atlantic SST forcing. Cold phases around 600, 800, and 1400 to 1600 C.E. are characterized by Caribbean salinification and Gulf of Mexico freshening that implies reductions in the strength of North Atlantic surface circulation. We suggest that the associated changes in the meridional salt advection contributed to the historical climate variability of the C.E.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 25
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    The ground deformation of the south-eastern flank of Mount Etna monitored by GNSS and SAR interferometry from 2016 to 2019 (2023)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-27
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: The south-eastern sector of the Mount Etna, Italy, is characterized by numerous active faults, in particular the Belpasso–Ognina lineament, the Tremestieri–San Gregorio–Acitrezza fault, the Trecastagni fault and the Fiandaca–Nizzeti fault including the Timpe Fault System. Their activity is the result of both volcanism and tectonics. Here, we analyse the ground deformation occurred from 2016 to 2019 across those active faults by using the GNSS data acquired at 22 permanent stations and 35 campaign points observed by the Etna Observatory (INGV) and by the University of Catania. We also use the time-series of line of sight displacement of permanent scatterers SENTINEL-1 A-DInSAR obtained by using the P-SBAS tool of the ESA GEP-TEP (Geohazards Thematic Exploitation Platform) service. We discriminate the contributions of the regional tectonic strain, the inflations, the deflations of the volcano and the gravitational sliding in order to analyse the deformation along the faults of the south-eastern flank of Etna. The shallow and destructive Mw = 4.9 earthquake of 2018 December 26 occurred within the studied area two days after a dyke intrusion, that propagated beneath the centre of the volcano accompanied by a short eruption. Both GNSS and InSAR time-series document well those events and allow to investigate the post-seismic sliding across the faults of south-eastern flank. We analyse the slow slip events (SSE) that are observed in the GNSS and InSAR time-series in the vicinity of the Acitrezza fault. We quantify and discuss the tectonic origin of the Belpasso–Ognina lineament that we interpreted as a tear fault.
    Description: Published
    Description: 664–682
    Description: OST3 Vicino alla faglia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Satellite geodesy ; Transient deformation ; Interferometry ; Fractures ; fault ; Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 26
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    Structure-informed microbial population genetics elucidate selective pressures that shape protein evolution (2023)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Science Advances, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 9(8), pp. eabq4632-eabq4632, ISSN: 2375-2548
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-03
    Description: 〈jats:p〉Comprehensive sampling of natural genetic diversity with metagenomics enables highly resolved insights into the interplay between ecology and evolution. However, resolving adaptive, neutral, or purifying processes of evolution from intrapopulation genomic variation remains a challenge, partly due to the sole reliance on gene sequences to interpret variants. Here, we describe an approach to analyze genetic variation in the context of predicted protein structures and apply it to a marine microbial population within the SAR11 subclade 1a.3.V, which dominates low-latitude surface oceans. Our analyses reveal a tight association between genetic variation and protein structure. In a central gene in nitrogen metabolism, we observe decreased occurrence of nonsynonymous variants from ligand-binding sites as a function of nitrate concentrations, revealing genetic targets of distinct evolutionary pressures maintained by nutrient availability. Our work yields insights into the governing principles of evolution and enables structure-aware investigations of microbial population genetics.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 27
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    Fabric controls fault stability in serpentinite gouges (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-09
    Description: Serpentinites are polymineralic rocks distributed almost ubiquitously across the globe in active tectonic regions. Magnetite-rich serpentinites are found in the low-strain domains of serpen- tinite shear zones, which act as potential sites of nucleation of unstable slip. To assess the potential of earthquake nucleation in these materials, we investigate the link between me- chanical properties and fabric of these rocks through a suite of laboratory shear experiments. Our experiments were done at room temperature and cover a range of normal stress and slip velocity from 25 to 100 MPa and 0.3 to 300 μm s −1 , respecti vel y. We show that magnetite-rich serpentinites are ideal materials since they display strong sensitivity to the loading rate and are susceptible to nucleation of unstable slip, especially at low forcing slip velocities. We also aim at the integration of mechanical and microstructural results to describe the underlying mechanisms that produce the macroscopic behaviour. We show that mineralogical composi- tion and mineral structure dictates the coexistence of two deformation mechanisms leading to stable and unstable slip. The weakness of phyllosilicates allows for creep during the interseis- mic phase of the laboratory seismic cycle while favouring the restoration of a load-bearing granular framework, responsible of the nucleation of unstable events. During dynamic slip, fault zone shear fabric determines the mode of slip, producing either asymmetric or Gaussian slip time functions for either fast or slow events. We report rate/state friction parameters and integrate our mechanical data with microstructural observations to shed light on the mech- anisms dictating the complexity of laborator y ear thquakes. We show that mineralogical and fabric heterogeneities control fault slip behaviour.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1778–1797
    Description: OST3 Vicino alla faglia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 28
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    Spatial heterogeneity and environmental predictors of permafrost region soil organic carbon stocks (2021)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Science Advances, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: Large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) have accumulated in the northern hemisphere permafrost region, but their current mounts and future fate remain uncertain. By analyzing an unprecedented dataset combining 〉2,700 soil profiles with environmental variables in a geospatial framework, we generated spatially explicit estimates of permafrost-region SOC stocks, quantified spatial heterogeneity, and identified key environmental predictors. We estimated 1014−175+194 Pg C are stored in the top 3 m of permafrost region soils. The greatest uncertainties occurred in circumpolar toe-slope positions and in flat areas of the Tibetan region. We found that soil wetness index and elevation are the dominant topographic controllers and surface air temperature (circumpolar region) and precipitation (Tibetan region) are significant climatic controllers of SOC stocks. Our results provide the first high-resolution geospatial assessment of permafrost region SOC stocks and their relationships with environmental factors, which are crucial for modeling the response of permafrost affected soils to changing climate.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 29
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    Cross-Chapter Paper 6: Polar Regions (2022)
    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Climate Change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of the WGII to the 6th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC AR WGII, Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-30
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 30
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    Metagenomic survey of the microbiome of ancient Siberian permafrost and modern Kamchatkan cryosols (2022)
    Oxford University Press
    In:  EPIC3microLife, Oxford University Press, 3(1), pp. 1-15, ISSN: 2633-6693
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: In the context of global warming, the melting of arctic permafrost raises the threat of a re-emergence of microorganisms some of which were shown to remain viable in ancient frozen soils for up to half a million years. In order to evaluate this risk, it is of interest to acquire a better knowledge of the composition of the microbial communities found in this understudied environment. Here we present a metagenomics analysis of 12 soil samples from Russian Arctic and subarctic pristine areas: Chukotka, Yakutia, and Kamchatka, including 9 permafrost samples collected at various depths. These large datasets (9.2 1011 total bp) were assembled (525,313 contigs 〉 5kb), their encoded protein contents predicted, then used to perform taxonomical assignments of bacterial, archaeal, and eukaryotic organisms, as well as DNA viruses. The various samples exhibited variable DNA contents and highly diverse taxonomic profiles showing no obvious relationship with their locations, depths or deposit ages. Bacteria represented the largely dominant DNA fraction (95%) in all samples, followed by archaea (3.2%), surprisingly little eukaryotes (0.5%), and viruses (0.4%). Although no common taxonomic pattern was identified, the samples shared unexpected high frequencies of β-lactamase genes, almost 0.9 copy/bacterial genome. In addition of known environmental threats, the particularly intense warming of the Arctic might thus enhance the spread of bacterial antibiotic resistances, today's major challenge in public health. β-lactamases were also observed at high frequency in other types of soils, suggesting their general role in the regulation of bacterial populations.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 31
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    New constraints on the shear wave velocity structure of the Ivrea geophysical body from seismic ambient noise tomography (Ivrea-Verbano Zone, Alps) (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: We performed seismic ambient noise tomography to investigate the shallow crustal structure around the Ivrea geophysical body (IGB) in the Ivrea-Verbano Zone (IVZ). We achieved higher resolution with respect to previous tomographic works covering the Western Alps, by processing seismic data collected by both permanent and temporary seismic networks (61 broad-band seismic stations in total). This included IvreaArray, a temporary, passive seismic experiment designed to investigate the IVZ crustal structure. Starting from continuous seismic ambient noise recordings, we measured and inverted the dispersion of the group velocity of surface Rayleigh waves (fundamental mode) in the period range 4–25 s. We obtained a new, 3-D vS model of the IVZ crust via the stochastic neighbourhood algorithm (NA), with the highest resolution between 3 to 40 km depth. The fast and shallow shear wave velocity anomaly associated with the IGB presents velocities of 3.6 km s−1 directly at the surface, in remarkable agreement with the location of the exposed lower-to-middle crustal and mantle outcrops. This suggests a continuity between the surface geological observations and the subsurface geophysical anomalies. The fast IGB structure reaches vS of 4 km s−1 at 20–25 km depth, at the boundary between the European and Adriatic tectonic plates, and in correspondence with the earlier identified Moho jump in the same area. The interpretation of a very shallow reaching IGB is further supported by the comparison of our new results with recent geophysical investigations, based on receiver functions and gravity anomaly data. By combining the new geophysical constraints and the geological observations at the surface, we provide a new structural interpretation of the IGB, which features lower crustal and mantle rocks at upper crustal depths. The comparison of the obtained vS values with the physical properties from laboratory analysis of local rock samples suggests that the bulk of the IGB consists of a combination of mantle peridotite, ultramafic and lower crustal rocks, bound in a heterogeneous structure. These new findings, based on vS tomography, corroborate the recent interpretation for which the Balmuccia peridotite outcrops are continuously linked to the IGB structure beneath. The new outcomes contribute to a multidisciplinary framework for the interpretation of the forthcoming results of the scientific drilling project DIVE. DIVE aims at probing the lower continental crust and its transition to the mantle, with two ongoing and one future boreholes (down to 4 km depth) in the IVZ area, providing new, complementary information on rock structure and composition across scales. In this framework, we constrain the upper crustal IGB geometries and lithology based on new evidence for vS, connecting prior crustal knowledge to recent active seismic investigations.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1089–1105
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
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    Erratum to “A Review of Arctic–Subarctic Ocean Linkages: Past Changes, Mechanisms, and Future Projections” (2023)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 2, ISSN: 2771-0378
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-20
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 33
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    Implications for the geometry of plate boundaries in NE Asia based on the geodetic analysis of the 2020Mw 6.4 Koryak event (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: On the 9th of January 2020, an Mw 6.4 strike-slip earthquake took place north of the Asian margin of the Bering Sea. The earthquake occurred within the known reverse-right-lateral active fault zone, called Khatyrka–Vyvenka, which transverses the Koryak Highland from SE to NW and is thought to be a surface manifestation of the Asian portion of either the Bering plate boundary or the northern edge of the Alaskan stream. No other strong earthquake has ever been recorded in this remote uninhabited area and the few existing seismic stations provide poor quality earthquake locations.We adopt SAR interferometry (InSAR) technique to define an improved location of the Koryak 2020 earthquake and constrain the seismic source. The analysis of the 2020 event revealed a previously unknown active fault of left-lateral kinematics that is possibly hidden and strikes NWtransversely to the Khatyrka–Vyvenka fault zone. Although several mechanisms could account for left-lateral kinematics of this fault, we propose that the structure is part of a more extended NW fault structure, that formed in pre-neotectonic times and has played a role of a pre-existing rheological discontinuity. This revived NW structure together with a similar structure located easterly, so far aseismic, make the plate/stream boundary segmented, step-like in plan view. The step-like boundary geometry may be the result of internal transform deformation of a rigid plate, but it is better explained by deflections of the Alaskan stream edge at local crustal asperities, which are pre-Cenozoic terrains.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1412–1421
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Plate motion ; Radar interferometry ; Seismic cycle ; Asia
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    Moment magnitude for earthquakes in the Etna volcano area (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-19
    Description: Accurate quantification of seismic activity in volcanic regions is an important asset for im- proving hazard and risk assessment. This is especially true for densely populated areas, as in the case of Etna volcano (Southern Italy). There, the volcanic hazard is amplified by the seismic risk of acti ve faults, especiall y on the eastern flank of the volcano. In such a context, it is common to rely on moment magnitude ( M W ) to characterize seismicity and monitor the energy released during an eruption. In this study, we calculate the moment-based magnitude ( M W ) for selected seismic data sets, using different approaches in distinct magnitude ranges to cover the widest possible range of magnitude that characterizes Etna’s seismicity . Specifically , we computed the M W from a data set of moment tensor solutions of earthquakes that occurred in the magnitude range 3.4 ≤M L ≤4.8 during 2005–2020; we created a data set of seismic moment and associated M W for earthquakes 1.0 ≤M L 〈 3.4 obtained by analysing source spectra; we fine-tuned two relationships, for shallow and deep earthquakes, to obtain M W from response spectra. Finally, we calibrated a specific relationship between M W and M L for the Etna area earthquakes in the range 1.0 ≤M L ≤4.8. All the empirical relationships obtained in this study can be applied in real-time analysis of the seismicity to provide fast and robust information on the released seismic energy.
    Description: INGV-DPC 2012- 2021 agreement; B2 DPC-INGV 2019-2021 project; IMPACT Department strategic project ; ‘Project PE0000005–RETURN (NRRP)
    Description: Published
    Description: 2520-2534
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquak e source observations ; Earthquake hazards ; Time series analysis ; Full moment tensor
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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    A statistical framework for detection of b-value anomalies in Italy (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: This study presents a new robust statistical framework, in which to measure relative differences, or deviations from a hypothetical reference value, of Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Moreover, it applies this method to recent seismicity in Italy, to find possible changes of earthquake magnitude distribution in time and space. The method uses bootstrap techniques, which have no prior assumptions about the distribution of data, keeping their basic features. Excluding Central Italy, no significative b-value variation is found, revealing that the frequency-magnitude distribution exponent is substantially stable or that data are not able to reveal hidden variations. Considering the small size of examined magnitude samples, we cannot definitively decide if the higher b-values in Central Italy, consistently founded by all applied tests, have a physical origin or result from a statistical bias. In any case, they indicate short-lived excursions which have a temporary nature and, therefore, cannot be associated solely to spatial variations in tectonic framework. Both the methodological issues and the results of the application to seismicity in Italy show that a correct assessing of b-value changes requests appropriate statistics, that accurately quantify the low accuracy and precision of b-value estimation for small magnitude samples.
    Description: Published
    Description: 729–740
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
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    Source mechanisms and induced seismicity in the Val d'Agri Basin (Italy) (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: We present the results from a fully unconstrained moment tensor inversion of induced seismic events in a complex and high seismic hazard region (Val d’Agri basin, Southern Italy). The study area hosts two well-documented cases of induced microseismicity linked to (i) a wastewater injection well of a giant oilfield (the largest in onshore Europe), and (ii) severe seasonal level changes of an artificial lake. In order to gather information on the non-doublecouple components of the source and to better understand the rupture mechanisms, we analyse seismic events recorded during daily injection tests in the disposal well. The computed moment tensors have significant non-double-couple components that correlate with the well-head injection pressure. The injection parameters strongly influence the rupture mechanism that can be interpreted as due to the opening/closing of a fracture network inside a fault zone of a pre-existing thrust fault. For the case of the reservoir-induced seismicity, no direct correlations are observed with the loading/unloading of the reservoir.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1617–1627
    Description: OST3 Vicino alla faglia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
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  • 37
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    Global and regional temperature change over the past 4.5 million years (2024)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 383(6685), pp. 884-890, ISSN: 0036-8075
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-21
    Description: Much of our understanding of Cenozoic climate is based on the record of δ18O measured in benthic foraminifera. However, this measurement reflects a combined signal of global temperature and sea level, thus preventing a clear understanding of the interactions and feedbacks of the climate system in causing global temperature change. Our new reconstruction of temperature change over the past 4.5 million years includes two phases of long-term cooling, with the second phase of accelerated cooling during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (1.5 to 0.9 million years ago) being accompanied by a transition from dominant 41,000-year low-amplitude periodicity to dominant 100,000-year high-amplitude periodicity. Changes in the rates of long-term cooling and variability are consistent with changes in the carbon cycle driven initially by geologic processes, followed by additional changes in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle. 〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 38
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    High frequency attenuation of S waves in alluvial deposits of the central Po Plain (northern Italy) (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-03
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: Estimation of local seismic response plays a key role in assessing local seismic hazard and particularly in the design of shaking scenarios. Modelling local seismic response involves knowing of the shear wave velocity (Vs) and quality factor (Qs) profiles for the site in question. The many techniques that have been developed to assess Vs in surface deposits produce reliable measurements of Vs , but these rarely correspond to direct measurements of Qs . The latter is often considered through damping measures from laboratory tests on small-scale soil samples, which can provide information primarily on intrinsic attenuation, neglecting the contribution of scattering effects. In this paper, using seismic recordings obtained at the surface and in boreholes at 100 m depth, we estimate an average value of Qs of some characteristic alluvial deposits of the Po Plain (northern Italy). Data come from a microseismic network which sampled an almost uniform lithology in the central Po Plain and consisted of three surface and four borehole stations with an interstation distance of about 2 km. The average value of Qs of the shallowest 100 m of the sedimentary strata, Qs100, is estimated by considering: (1) the high-frequency attenuation of seismic waves due to propagation through the corresponding stratigraphy and (2) the interference between incident and surface-reflected waves observed at borehole stations. We parametrize the first through k0_100, the difference between the values of the spectral decay parameter kappa (k) estimated at the surface and at the boreholes depth, respectively. We use the second in order to compute Vs100, the time-averaged Vs referred to the uppermost 100 m stratigraphy. We obtain: k0_100 = (11 ± 3) ms, Vs100 = (309 ± 11) m s −1 and Qs100 = 31 ± 10. At the surface, the estimated values of the site-specific kappa, k0, are found to range from 75 to 79 ms. As expected, these results are in good agreement with studies performed in other sites characterized by sandy or clayey lithologies, and can be usefully used in site response analysis at sites where the rigidity is mainly controlled by lithostatic pressure.
    Description: Comune di Minerbio (grant: “Sperimentazione ILG Minerbio”; grant number: 0913.010).
    Description: Published
    Description: 2075–2094
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake ground motions ; Seismic attenuation ; Site effects ; Wave propagation ; Wave scattering and diffraction ; 04.06. Seismology
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  • 39
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    Extraction and applications of Rayleigh wave ellipticity in polar regions (2024)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-05
    Description: Seismic Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements are the horizontal-to-vertical ratio of the Rayleigh wave particle motion, and are sensitive to the subsurface structure beneath a seismic station. H/V ratios measured from the ambient vibrations of the Earth are being increasingly used in glaciological applications to determine glacier and ice sheet thickness, seismic velocities and firn properties. Using the newly developed degree-of-polarisation (DOP-E) method which exploits the polarisation properties of seismic noise, we identify and extract Rayleigh waves from seismic stations in Greenland, and relate them to sea ice processes and the geology of the upper crust. Finally, we provide some suggestions for future applications of DOP-E method to gain greater insight into seasonal and long-term variability of sea ice formation and breakup as well as the monitoring of ice sheet thickness, subglacial environment and firn layers in the poles.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3-7
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
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    Comparison between alarm-based and probability-based earthquake forecasting methods (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: In a recent work, we applied the every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS) probabilistic model to the pseudo-prospective forecasting of shallow earthquakes with magni- tude M 5.0 in the Italian region. We compared the forecasting performance of EEPAS with that of the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) forecasting model, using the most recent consistency tests developed within the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictabil- ity (CSEP). The application of such models for the forecasting of Italian target earthquakes seems to show peculiar characteristics for each of them. In particular, the ETAS model showed higher performance for short-term forecasting, in contrast, the EEPAS model showed higher forecasting performance for the medium/long-term. In this work, we compare the performance of EEPAS and ETAS models with that obtained by a deterministic model based on the occur- rence of strong foreshocks (FORE model) using an alarm-based approach. We apply the two rate-based models (ETAS and EEPAS) estimating the best probability threshold above which we issue an alarm. The model parameters and probability thresholds for issuing the alarms are calibrated on a learning data set from 1990 to 2011 during which 27 target earthquakes have occurred within the analysis region. The pseudo-prospective forecasting performance is as- sessed on a validation data set from 2012 to 2021, which also comprises 27 target earthquakes. Tests to assess the forecasting capability demonstrate that, even if all models outperform a purely random method, which trivially forecast earthquake proportionally to the space–time occupied by alarms, the EEPAS model exhibits lower forecasting performance than ETAS and FORE models. In addition, the relative performance comparison of the three models demonstrates that the forecasting capability of the FORE model appears slightly better than ETAS, but the difference is not statistically significant as it remains within the uncertainty level. However, truly prospective tests are necessary to validate such results, ideally using new testing procedures allowing the analysis of alarm-based models, not yet available within the CSEP.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1541–1551
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Computational seismology ; Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction ; Statistical seismology ; Comparison betwee earthquake forecasting methods
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  • 41
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    Low-strength shear zone in the western Makran subduction zone, southeastern Iran: insights from a receiver function analysis (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: To understand the seismic hazard of a subduction zone, it is necessary to know the geometry, location and mechanical characteristics of the interplate boundary below which an oceanic plate is thrust downward. By considering the azimuthal dependence of converted P-to-S (Ps) amplitudes in receiver functions, we have detected the interplate boundary in the Makran subduction zone, revealing significant seismic anisotropy at the base of the accretionary wedge above the slab before it bends down beneath the Jaz Murian basin. This anisotropic feature aligns with a zone of reduced seismic velocity and a high primary/secondary wave velocity ratio (Vp/Vs), as documented in previous studies. The presence of this low-velocity highly anisotropic layer at the base of the accretionary wedge, likely representing a low-strength shear zone, could possibly explain the unusually wide accretionary wedge in Makran. Additionally, it may impact the location and width of the locked zone along the interplate boundary.
    Description: Iranian National Science Foundation (INSF)
    Description: Published
    Description: 64-74
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake hazards, Seismic anisotropy, Crustal structure, Subduction zone processes ; 04.06. Seismology
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  • 42
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    Application of the EEPAS earthquake forecasting model to Italy (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: The Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) forecasting model is a space– time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (ψ ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has been previously applied to New Zealand, Cal- ifornia and Japan earthquakes with target magnitude thresholds varying from about 5–7. In all previous application, computations were done using the computer code implemented in Fortran language by the model authors. In this work, we applied it to Italy using a suite of computing codes completely rewritten in Matlab. We first compared the two software codes to ensure the convergence and adequate coincidence between the estimated model parameters for a simple region capable of being analysed by both software codes. Then, using the rewritten codes, we optimized the parameters for a different and more complex polygon of analysis using the Homogenized Instrumental Seismic Catalogue data from 1990 to 2011. We then perform a pseudo-prospective forecasting experiment of Italian earthquakes from 2012 to 2021 with Mw ≥ 5.0 and compare the forecasting skill of EEPAS with those obtained by other time in- dependent (Spatially Uniform Poisson, Spatially Variable Poisson and PPE: Proximity to Past Earthquakes) and time dependent [Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)] forecasting models using the information gain per active cell. The preference goes to the ETAS model for short time intervals (3 months) and to the EEPAS model for longer time intervals (6 months to 10 yr).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1681–1700
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Computational seismology ; Earthquake interaction ; forecasting and prediction ; Statistical seismology ; Earthquake forecasting
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    Holocene relative sea-level changes along the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of northwestern South America (2024)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-13
    Description: All Rights Reserved
    Description: Predicting coastal change depends upon our knowledge of postglacial relative sea-level variability, partly controlled by glacio-isostatic responses to ice-sheet melting. Here, we reconstruct the postglacial relative sea-level changes along the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of northwestern South America by numerically solving the sea-level equation with two scenarios of mantle viscosity: global standard average and high viscosity. Our results with the standard model (applicable to the Pacific coast) agree with earlier studies by indicating a mid-Northgrippian high stand of ~2 m. The high-viscosity simulation (relevant to the Caribbean coast) shows that the transition from far- to intermediate-field influence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet occurs between Manzanillo del Mar and the Gulf of Morrosquillo. South of this location, the Colombian Caribbean coast has exhibited a still stand with a nearly constant Holocene relative sea level. By analyzing our simulations considering sea-level indicators, we argue that tectonics is more prominent than previously assumed, especially along the Caribbean coast. This influence prevents a simplified view of regional relative sea-level changes on the northwestern South American coast.
    Description: Published
    Description: 28-43
    Description: OSA4: Ambiente marino, fascia costiera ed Oceanografia operativa
    Description: JCR Journal
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    A dual-tube sampling technique for snowpack studies (2021)
    Cambridge University Press
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Glaciology, Cambridge University Press, 67(261), pp. 84-90
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-22
    Description: The validity of any glaciological paleo proxy used to interpret climate records is based on the level of understanding of their transfer from the atmosphere into the ice sheet and their recording in the snowpack. Large spatial noise in snow properties is observed, as the wind constantly redistributes the deposited snow at the surface routed by the local topography. To increase the signal-tonoise ratio and getting a representative estimate of snow properties with respect to the high spatial variability, a large number of snow profiles is needed. However, the classical way of obtaining profiles via snow-pits is time and energy-consuming, and thus unfavourable for large surface sampling programs. In response, we present a dual-tube technique to sample the upper metre of the snowpack at a variable depth resolution with high efficiency. The developed device is robust and avoids contact with the samples by exhibiting two tubes attached alongside each other in order to (1) contain the snow core sample and (2) to access the bottom of the sample, respectively. We demonstrate the performance of the technique through two case studies in East Antarctica where we analysed the variability of water isotopes at a 100 m and 5 km spatial scales.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 45
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    Hydrological and volcano-related gravity signals at Mt. Somma–Vesuvius from ∼20 yr of time-lapse gravity monitoring: implications for volcano quiescence (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-27
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: We report on about 20 yr of relative gravity measurements, acquired on Mt. Somma–Vesuvius volcano in order to investigate the hydrological and volcano-tectonic processes controlling the present-day activity of the volcano. The retrieved long-term field of time gravity change (2003–2022) shows a pattern essentially related to the subsidence, which have affected the central part of the volcano, as detected by the permanent GNSS network and InSAR data. After reducing the observations for the effect of vertical deformation, no significant residuals are found, indicating no significant mass accumulation or loss within the volcanic system. In the north-western sector of the study area, at the border of the volcano edifice, however, significant residual positive gravity changes are detected which are associated to ground-water rebound after years of intense exploitation of the aquifers. On the seasonal timescale, we find that stations within the caldera rim are affected by the seasonal hydrological effects, while the gravity stations at the base of the Vesuvius show a less clear correlation. Furthermore, within the caldera rim a multiyear gravity transient is detected with an increase phase lasting about 4 yr followed by a slower decrease phase. Analysis of rain data seem to exclude a hydrological origin, hence, we hypothesize a deeper source related to the geothermal activity, which can be present even if the volcano is in a quiescent state. We infer the depth and volume of the source by inverting the spatial pattern of the gravity field at the peak of the transient. A volume of fluids of 9.5 × 107 m3 with density of 1000 kg m−3 at 2.3 km depth is capable to fit reasonably well the observations. To explain the gravity transient, simple synthetic models are produced, that simulate the ascent of fluids from a deep reservoir up to the depth of 2.3 km and a successive diffusion within the carbonate aquifer hosting the geothermal system. The whole process appears to not significantly affect the seismicity rate and the deformation of the volcano. This study demonstrates the importance of a 4-D gravity monitoring of a volcano to understand its complex gravity signals that cover different spatial and temporal scales. Discriminating the different contributions that mix up in the observed gravity changes, in particular those due to hydrologic/anthropogenic activities form those due to the geothermal dynamics, is fundamental for a complete and reliable evaluation of the volcano state.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1565–1580
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 46
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    High-resolution magnetochronology detects multiple stages of Pleistocene tectonic uplift and deformation in the Po Plain of northern Italy (2024)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-29
    Description: We developed a high-resolution magnetochronology of the Pleistocene stratigraphy of the Monte Netto hillock, a tectonically uplifted struc ture in the Po Plain of northern Italy. Our data allowed reconstructing the depositional age of the sequence and assessing rates of defor mation and rock uplift of the neotectonic structure, thus providing constraints on the tectono-sedimentary evolution of this seismically active part of the buried Southern Alps. Using a combination of magnetostratigraphy and paleosecular variation analysis, we generated an age-depth model for the Monte Netto stratigraphy that encompasses, from the top, Upper Pleistocene (11–72 ka) loess-paleosols over laying fluvial sediments spanning the Brunhes-Matuyama boundary (773 ka) and the top of the Jaramillo (990 ka). The identification of the same magneto-chronostratigraphic surfaces in nearby drill cores from regions of the Po Plain that have not been affected by neotectonic deformation allowed estimating a mean rate of tectonic uplift of the hillock relative to the neighboring plain of 11.3 ± 1.5 cm/ka, and an absolute uplift relative to sea level of ∼19.3 cm/ka. Finally, our paleomagnetic analyses from the uppermost loess sequence disclosed the complexity of the tectonic evolution of the Monte Netto structure, which shows evidence of a two-phase rotational deformation linked to coseismic surface faulting due to recent seismic activity.
    Description: Published
    Description: 191-205
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Magnetochronology ; Pleistocene ; Paleosecular variations ; Loess-paleosols ; Neotectonic deformation ; Po Plain
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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    Heatwave responses of Arctic phytoplankton communities are driven by combined impacts of warming and cooling. (2024)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Sci Adv, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 10(20), pp. eadl5904-eadl5904, ISSN: 2375-2548
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity as climate change progresses, especially in the highly productive Arctic regions. Although their effects on primary producers will largely determine the impacts on ecosystem services, mechanistic understanding on phytoplankton responses to these extreme events is still very limited. We experimentally exposed Arctic phytoplankton assemblages to stable warming, as well as to repeated heatwaves, and measured temporally resolved productivity, physiology, and composition. Our results show that even extreme stable warming increases productivity, while the response to heatwaves depends on the specific scenario applied and is not predictable from stable warming responses. This appears to be largely due to the underestimated impact of the cool phase following a heatwave, which can be at least as important as the warm phase for the overall response. We show that physiological and compositional adjustments to both warm and cool phases drive overall phytoplankton productivity and need to be considered mechanistically to predict overall ecosystem impacts.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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    The Influence of Undercooling and Sector Zoning on Clinopyroxene–Melt Equilibrium and Thermobarometry (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-06-17
    Description: Thermobarometry provides a critical means of assessing locations of magma storage and dynamics in the lead-up to volcanic eruptions and crustal growth. A common approach is to utilise minerals that have compositions sensitive to changes in pressure and/or temperature, such as clinopyroxene, which is ubiquitous in mafic to intermediate magmas. However, clinopyroxene thermobarometry may carry significant uncertainty and require an appropriate equilibrium melt composition. In addition, the degree of magma undercooling (ΔT) affects clinopyroxene composition and zoning, with common sector zoning potentially obfuscating thermobarometry results. Here, we use a set of crystallisation experiments on a primitive trachybasalt from Mt. Etna (Italy) at ΔT = 25–233 °C, P = 400–800 MPa, H2O = 0–4 wt % and fO2 = NNO + 2, with clinopyroxene crystals defined by Al-rich zones (prisms and skeletons) and Al-poor zones (hourglass and overgrowths) to assess common equilibrium models and thermobarometric approaches. Under the studied conditions, our data suggest that the commonly applied Fe–Mg exchange (cpx-meltKdFe–Mg) is insensitive to increasing ΔT and may not be a reliable indicator of equilibrium. The combined use of DiHd (CaMgSi2O6 + CaFeSi2O6) and EnFs (Mg2Si2O6 + Fe2Si2O6) models indicate the attainment of equilibrium in both Al-rich and Al-poor zones for almost all investigated ΔT. In contrast, CaTs (CaAl2SiO6) and CaTi (CaTiAl2O6) models reveal substantial deviations from equilibrium with increasing ΔT, particularly in Al-rich zones. We postulate that this reflects slower diffusion of Al and Ti in the melt compared with Ca and Mg and recommend the concurrent application of these four models to evaluate equilibrium between clinopyroxene and melt, particularly for sector-zoned crystals. Thermobarometers calibrated with only isothermal–isobaric experiments closely reproduce experimental P–T at low ΔT, equivalent to natural phenocrysts cores and sector-zoned mantles. Models that also consider decompression experiments are most accurate at high ΔT and are therefore suitable for outermost phenocryst rims and groundmass microlites. Recent machine learning approaches reproduce P–T conditions across all ΔT conditions. Applying our experimental constraints to sector-zoned microphenocrysts and groundmass microlites erupted during the 1974 eccentric eruption at Mt. Etna, we highlight that both hourglass and prism sectors are suitable for thermobarometry, given that equilibrium is sufficiently tested for. The combination of DiHd, EnFs, CaTs and CaTi models identifies compositions closest to equilibrium with the bulk melt composition, and results in smaller differences in P–T calculated for hourglass and prism sectors compared with applying only DiHd and EnFs equilibrium models. This provides a framework to assess crystallisation conditions recorded by sector-zoned clinopyroxene crystals in mafic alkaline settings.
    Description: Published
    Description: egad074
    Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Experimental Petrology ; Petrology ; Clinopyroxene ; Thermobarometry ; Experimental Petrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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    A large-scale transcontinental river system crossed West Antarctica during the Eocene (2024)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In:  EPIC3Science Advances, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 10(23), pp. eadn6056-, ISSN: 2375-2548
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-07-05
    Description: 〈jats:p〉Extensive ice coverage largely prevents investigations of Antarctica’s unglaciated past. Knowledge about environmental and tectonic development before large-scale glaciation, however, is important for understanding the transition into the modern icehouse world. We report geochronological and sedimentological data from a drill core from the Amundsen Sea shelf, providing insights into tectonic and topographic conditions during the Eocene (~44 to 34 million years ago), shortly before major ice sheet buildup. Our findings reveal the Eocene as a transition period from >40 million years of relative tectonic quiescence toward reactivation of the West Antarctic Rift System, coinciding with incipient volcanism, rise of the Transantarctic Mountains, and renewed sedimentation under temperate climate conditions. The recovered sediments were deposited in a coastal-estuarine swamp environment at the outlet of a >1500-km-long transcontinental river system, draining from the rising Transantarctic Mountains into the Amundsen Sea. Much of West Antarctica hence lied above sea level, but low topographic relief combined with low elevation inhibited widespread ice sheet formation.〈/jats:p〉
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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    Mass-change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC) expected impact on science and applications (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-07-02
    Description: The joint ESA/NASA Mass-change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC) has the objective to extend time-series from previous gravity missions, including an improvement of accuracy and spatio-temporal resolution. The long-term monitoring of Earth’s gravity field carries information on mass change induced by water cycle, climate change and mass transport processes between atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans and solid Earth. MAGIC will be composed of two satellite pairs flying in different orbit planes. The NASA/DLR-led first pair (P1) is expected to be in a near-polar orbit around 500 km of altitude; while the second ESA-led pair (P2) is expected to be in an inclined orbit of 65°–70° at approximately 400 km altitude. The ESA-led pair P2 Next Generation Gravity Mission shall be launched after P1 in a staggered manner to form the MAGIC constellation. The addition of an inclined pair shall lead to reduction of temporal aliasing effects and consequently of reliance on de-aliasing models and post-processing. The main novelty of the MAGIC constellation is the delivery of mass-change products at higher spatial resolution, temporal (i.e. subweekly) resolution, shorter latency and higher accuracy than the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO). This will pave the way to new science applications and operational services. In this paper, an overview of various fields of science and service applications for hydrology, cryosphere, oceanography, solid Earth, climate change and geodesy is provided. These thematic fields and newly enabled applications and services were analysed in the frame of the initial ESA Science Support activities for MAGIC. The analyses of MAGIC scenarios for different application areas in the field of geosciences confirmed that the double-pair configuration will significantly enlarge the number of observable mass-change phenomena by resolving smaller spatial scales with an uncertainty that satisfies evolved user requirements expressed by international bodies such as IUGG. The required uncertainty levels of dedicated thematic fields met by MAGIC unfiltered Level-2 products will benefit hydrological applications by recovering more than 90 per cent of the major river basins worldwide at 260 km spatial resolution, cryosphere applications by enabling mass change signal separation in the interior of Greenland from those in the coastal zones and by resolving small-scale mass variability in challenging regions such as the Antarctic Peninsula, oceanography applications by monitoring meridional overturning circulation changes on timescales of years and decades, climate applications by detecting amplitude and phase changes of Terrestrial Water Storage after 30 yr in 64 and 56 per cent of the global land areas and solid Earth applications by lowering the Earthquake detection threshold from magnitude 8.8 to magnitude 7.4 with spatial resolution increased to 333 km.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1288–1308
    Description: JCR Journal
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    Reply to Maher (1989)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 5 (1989), S. 79-90 
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    ISSN: 0266-2671
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266267100002297
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    Braybrooke, David: Meeting Needs : Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1987 (1989)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 5 (1989), S. 91-97 
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    ISSN: 0266-2671
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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    The Firm as Association Versus the Firm as Commodity (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 243-266 
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    ISSN: 0266-2671
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Recent years have seen the flowering of a new literature on the economic nature of firms marked by a concern with their internal organization and contractual characteristics. Related literatures on the principal-agent problem and the theory of financial markets have also contributed to a better understanding of firms as economic institutions. However, the place of the concept of the ownership of the firm is poorly developed in most of this literature, with many writers either ignoring the concept entirely or arguing that it is of no importance. The purpose of the present article is to point out that the concept of ownership of firms is crucial to an understanding of internal governance issues. Most economists implicitly presume that firms must be ownable and saleable if they are to be operated efficiently, and recently this viewpoint has been made more explicit by writers such as Jensen and Fama and Williamson. Their point of view is to some degree at odds with views of the firm as a coalition, which frequently appear in the same literature, and even more fundamentally in conflict with conceptions of the firm as an association or polity within which greater or lesser degrees of democracy in governance may be pursued. The first purpose of this article is to show that the incompletely articulated position of the leading authors on the economics of organization is that the firm is a commodity and must be so for purposes of efficiency.
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    Editors' Note (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 291-291 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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    Orderly Decision Theory (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 292-297 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    Ordering and Independence (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 298-308 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    Rejoinder (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 309-315 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    Rights and Social Choice (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 316-325 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    How to Avoid the Paretian-Libertarian Paradox (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 326-332 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    Marx and Disequilibrium (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 333-336 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    Arguments, Truth, and Economic Methodology (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 170-172 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    Rhetoric is not Important Enough for Economists to Bother About (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 173-175 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    Elster, Jon; Hylland, Aanund; Elster, Jon; Hernes, Gudmund: Foundations of Social Choice Theory : New York, Cambridge University Press, 1986 (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 177-183 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    EAP volume 3 issue 2 Cover and Front matter (1987)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 3 (1987), S. 1-2 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    Schwartz, Thomas: The Logic of Collective Choice : New York, Columbia University Press, 1986 (1988)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 4 (1988), S. 183-188 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    EAP volume 3 issue 2 Cover and Back matter (1987)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 3 (1987), S. 1-10 
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    Final Reply to Professor Schweickart (1987)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 3 (1987), S. 335-338 
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    Notes: Since Schweickart asserts that I have not addressed his main argument, let me consider briefly the four claims he advances at the beginning of his second reply.Regarding 1: To argue, as I have, that there would be a strong tendency for market socialism to degenerate into capitalism, it is necessary to spell out carefully what capitalism is. Following Marx, I defined capitalism as a system in which the workers do not control the means of production and the workers sell their labor power as a commodity. As G.A. Cohen has pointed out (Cohen, 1978, pp. 219–23), this definition can be given a rechtsfrei characterization in terms of effective powers over means of production and labor power. Actual legal arrangements are not the issue. In my original paper, I never said that the workers would sell the means of production. Thus 1 is irrelevant. The real questions are: (a) Who effectively controls the means of production? (b) Who effectively gets the profits? If the answer to both of these questions is, “Not the workers,” it follows that the workers are effectively proletarians and the system is a form of capitalism.
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    Rationality: A Third Dimension (1987)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 3 (1987), S. 49-66 
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    Notes: I want in this paper to do two things. First, I want to respond to some studies that argue that people are often not rational: that people regularly and systematically depart from rationality. The conclusion itself does not worry me. I pressed for the same in a recent book (Schick, 1984). But the arguments seem to me wrong, and wrong in an interesting way. There may be something to be learned from seeing how and why they fail.
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    Rights and Social Choice: Is There a Paretian Libertarian Paradox? (1987)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 3 (1987), S. 1-22 
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    Notes: In 1970 Amartya Sen exposed an apparent antinomy that has come to be known as the Paradox of the Paretian Libertarian (Sen, 1970b, pp. 152–57). Sen introduced his paradox by establishing a simple but startling theorem. Roughly put, what he proved was that if a mechanism for selecting social choice functions satisfies two standard adequacy conditions, there are possible situations in which it will violate either the very weak libertarian precept that every individual has at least some rights or the seemingly innocuous Paretian principle that an option should be judged unacceptable if there is an available alternative that everyone prefers to it. Many economists and philosophers have proposed solutions to Sen's problem, but there is no general consensus on what solution (if any) is correct. In the present paper I argue that Sen's original theorem fails to establish the existence of any conflict between libertarianism and Paretianism. Furthermore, I contend that Sen has misinterpreted certain other theorems which he has used to defend the existence of a paradoxical conflict between these two doctrines. In general, I try to show that whenever Sen posits a Paretian-libertarian conflict to explain an apparently troubling result in social choice theory, the difficulty can be better dealt with either by claiming that the theorem in question imposes overly strong background constraints on the form of social choice functions or by claiming that it relies on an unacceptable construal of individual rights.
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    A Note on the Empirical Adequacy of the Expressive Theory of Voting Behavior (1987)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 3 (1987), S. 127-130 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: In their article, Geoffrey Brennan and Loren Lomasky (1985, p. 199) present an alternative to market theories of voting behavior. Contrary to market theories which view the voter as acting to maximize the expected self-interest, the alternative view sees voting as fundamentally an act of self-expression: “Voting, like speech, is an expressive activity providing an outlet for one's moral sentiments. We suggest that it is the expressive return to a vote that frequently determines the behavior of individuals in large-number electorates.”
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    Shall I Compare Thee to a Minkowski-Ricardo-Leontief-Metzler Matrix of the Mosak-Hicks Type?: Or, Rhetoric, Mathematics, and the Nature of Neoclassical Economic Theory (1987)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 3 (1987), S. 67-95 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Is rhetoric just a new and trendy way to épater les bourgeois? Unfortunately, I think that the newfound interest of some economists in rhetoric, and particularly Donald McCloskey in his new book and subsequent responses to critics (McCloskey, 1985a, 1985b), gives that impression. After economists have worked so hard for the past five decades to learn their sums, differential calculus, real analysis, and topology, it is a fair bet that one could easily hector them about their woeful ignorance of the conjugation of Latin verbs or Aristotle's Six Elements of Tragedy. Moreover, it has certainly become an academic cliché that economists write as gracefully and felicitously as a hundred monkeys chained to broken typewriters. The fact that economists still trot out Keynes's prose in their defense is itself an index of the inarticulate desperation of an inarticulate profession.
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    Rosenberg's “Lakatosian Consolations for Economists”: Comment (1987)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 3 (1987), S. 139-142 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Rosenberg (1986) argues that economists have embraced the methodology of scientific research programs, and the writings of Imre Lakatos (1978), at the same time that philosophers have been abandoning that approach. According to Rosenberg, the methodology of scientific research programs (MSRP) appears to allow some work in economics, which is neither tested nor testable, to be “scientific” nonetheless. That is, MSRP justifies some current practices which look hard to justify on strict falsificationist, or dogmatic positivist, grounds.
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    The Logic of Electoral Preference: Response to Saraydar and Hudelson (1987)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 3 (1987), S. 131-138 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: How may we best understand the motivational structure that stands behind individuals' acts of voting? In “The Impartial Spectator Goes to Washington” we suggested that expressive concerns swamp narrowly consequential motivations, in contradistinction to normal market transactions in which the priority is reversed. A striking consequence of this fact is that individuals will be led to vote for outcomes that they would reject were they in a position to act decisively. In this regard we found the moral psychology Adam Smith develops in The Theory of Moral Sentiments (TMS) (and, to a lesser extent, in The Wealth of Nations) remarkably fecund in suggesting alternatives to what we call the standard theory of electoral behavior.
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    Sen, Amartya: Resources, Values and Development : Cambridge, Mass., Harvard University Press, 1984 (1986)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 2 (1986), S. 282-291 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S147806150000267X
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    Are “All-and-Some” Statements Falsifiable After All?: The Example of Utility Theory (1986)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 2 (1986), S. 185-195 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Popper's well-known demarcation criterion has often been understood to distinguish statements of empirical science according to their logical form. Implicit in this interpretation of Popper's philosophy is the belief that when the universe of discourse of the empirical scientist is infinite, empirical universal sentences are falsifiable but not verifiable, whereas the converse holds for existential sentences. A remarkable elaboration of this belief is to be found in Watkins's early work (1957, 1958) on the statements he calls “all-and-some,” such as: “For every metal there is a melting point.” All-and-some statements (hereafter AS) are both universally and existentially quantified in that order. Watkins argued that AS should be regarded as both nonfalsifiable and nonverifiable, for they partake in the logical fate of both universal and existential statements. This claim is subject to the proviso that the bound variables are “uncircumscribed” (in Watkins's words); i.e., that the universe of discourse is infinite.
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    Contributors (1986)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 2 (1986), S. 293-293 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    Economic Equality: Rawls versus Utilitarianism (1986)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 2 (1986), S. 225-244 
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    ISSN: 0266-2671
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Perhaps the most salient feature of Rawls's theory of justice (Rawls, 1971) which at once attracts supporters and repels critics is its apparent egalitarian conclusion as to how economic goods are to be distributed. Indeed, many of Rawls's sympathizers may find this result intuitively appealing, and regard it as Rawls's enduring contribution to the topic of economic justice, despite technical deficiencies in Rawls's contractarian, decision-theoretic argument for it (see, e.g., Nagel, 1973, p. 234) which occupy the bulk of the critical literature. Rawls himself, having proposed a “coherence” theory of justification in metaethics, must regard the claim that his distributive criterion “is a strongly egalitarian conception” (Rawls, 1971, p. 76) as independently a part of the overarching moral argument. The alleged egalitarian impact of Rawls's theory is crucial again in normative ethics where Rawls is thought to have developed a major counter-theory to utilitarianism (cf. Braybrooke, 1975, p. 304), one of the most popular criticisms of which has been its alleged inadequacy in handling questions of distributive justice. Utilitarians can argue, however, as Brandt recently has, that the diminishing marginal utility of money, along with ignorance of income-welfare curves, would require a utility-maximizing distribution to be substantially egalitarian (Brandt, 1979, pp. 311f., 315f.; cf. Brandt, 1983, p. 102f.). The challenge is therefore for Rawls to show that his theory yields an ethically preferable degree of equality.
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    EAP volume 2 issue 1 Cover and Front matter (1986)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 2 (1986), S. 1-2 
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    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    EAP volume 2 issue 1 Cover and Back matter (1986)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 2 (1986), S. 1-3 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    Karl Popper and Economic Methodology: A New Look (1985)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 1 (1985), S. 83-99 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: Discussions of Karl Popper's falsificationist philosophy of science appear regularly in the recent literature on economic methodology. In this literature, there seem to be two fundamental points of agreement about Popper. First, most economists take Popper's falsificationist method of bold conjecture and severe test to be the correct characterization of scientific conduct in the physical sciences. Second, most economists admit that economic theory fails miserably when judged by these same falsificationist standards. As Latsis (1976, p. 8) states, “the development of economic analysis would look a dismal affair through falsificationist spectacles.”
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    The Impossibility of a Complete Methodological Individualist: Reduction When Knowledge Is Imperfect (1985)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 1 (1985), S. 101-108 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
    Notes: F. A. Hayek is uniquely responsible for his fellow economists grasping the importance of the decentralization of knowledge: as Hayek shows in his pathbreaking “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” knowledge nowhere exists as a coherent whole and to pretend otherwise is a most serious error. Hayek also shares responsibility for the popularity of a strong form of the methodological individualist research program which asserts that since collectives as such have no impact on the choices of individuals, investigators ought to purge any reliance on collectives from our analysis.
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    Editors' Note (1985)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Economics and philosophy 1 (1985), S. 127-127 
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    Topics: Philosophy , Economics
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    An Eigenvalue Problem – Solution (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 467-469 
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    Topics: Economics
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    ECT volume 3 issue 2 Front matter (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 1-1 
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    Topics: Economics
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    Full Information Estimations of a System of Simultaneous Equations with Error Component Structure (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 223-246 
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    ISSN: 0266-4666
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: In this paper we develop full information methods for estimating the parameters of a system of simultaneous equations with error component structure and establish relationships between the various structural estimators.
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    Preliminary-Test Estimation of the Error Variance in Linear Regression (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 299-304 
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    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: We derive exact finite-sample expressions for the biases and risks of several common pretest estimators of the scale parameter in the linear regression model. These estimators are associated with least squares, maximum likelihood and minimum mean squared error component estimators. Of these three criteria, the last is found to be superior (in terms of risk under quadratic loss) when pretesting in typical situations.
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    ECT volume 3 issue 1 Back matter (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 1-1 
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    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
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    Global and Partial Non-Nested Hypotheses and Asymptotic Local Power (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 69-97 
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    ISSN: 0266-4666
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: This paper addresses two related issues in the literature of non-nested hypotheses testing. Firstly, by means of a measure of “closeness” of probability density functions, it shows how any two hypotheses can be placed into the nested and the non-nested categories with the latter category being subdivided further into “globally” and “partially” non-nested hypotheses. Secondly, by emphasizing the distinction between a “local null” and a “local alternative,” the paper shows that only in the case of partially non-nested hypotheses is it possible to specify local alternatives. In this case the paper derives the asymptotic distribution of the Cox test statistic under local alternatives and shows that it is distributed as a normal variate with a mean which is directly related to the measure of “closeness” of the alternative to the null hypothesis.
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    Simple Versus Multiple Regression Coefficient (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 159-159 
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    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
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    Consistency of OLS (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 159-160 
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    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
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    The Exact Bias of Wald's Estimation (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 162-162 
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    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
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    Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 208-222 
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    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Many observed macrovariables are simple aggregates over a large number of microunits. It is pointed out that the generating process of the macrovariables is largely determined by the common factors in the generating mechanisms of the microvariables, even though these factors may be very unimportant at the microlevel. It follows that macrorelationships are simpler than the complete microrelationships, but that empirical investigations of microrelationships may not catch those components, containing common factors, which will determine the macrorelationship. It is also shown that an aggregate expectation or forecast is simply the common factor component of the individual agents expectations.
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    Approximating the Approximate Slopes of LR, W, and LM Test Statistics (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 247-271 
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    ISSN: 0266-4666
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: A Taylor series approach is used to derive approximations to the approximate slope of LR, W, and LM test statistics. These can be useful when the approximate slopes themselves are complicated. The results are applied to the test of linear coefficient restrictions in the linear model with a nonscalar covariance matrix. They can be used to find cases where the Wald test may badly over-reject in this model. The results shed some new light on the over-rejection that has been noted in the special cases of AR(1) disturbances and the SURE model.
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    Finite Sample Properties of Several Predictors From an Autoregressive Model (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 359-370 
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    ISSN: 0266-4666
    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: We compare the distributional properties of the four predictors commonly used in practice. They are based on the maximum likelihood, two types of the least squared, and the Yule-Walker estimators. The asymptotic expansions of the distribution, bias, and mean-squared error for the four predictors are derived up to O(T−1), where T is the sample size. Examining the formulas of the asymptotic expansions, we find that except for the Yule-Walker type predictor, the other three predictors have the same distributional properties up to O(T−1).
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    Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Barten's Demand Equations with a General, Symmetric or Diagonal Matrix of Specific Substitution Effects (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 461-463 
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    Topics: Economics
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    Contrast in Inferences Based on Sampling Distributions and Posterior Distributions–Solution (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 464-466 
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    Topics: Economics
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    Call for Papers (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 471-471 
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    Topics: Economics
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    Editorial (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 169-169 
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    Topics: Economics
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    A Remark on Magdalinos's k-Class Instrumental Variable Estimator (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 297-298 
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    Source: Cambridge Journals Digital Archives
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: In this paper we identify a restriction on the finite-sample application of Magdalinos's asymptotic expansions for the t statistic based on the k-class instrumental variable estimator.
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    Asymptotic Properties of One-Step Estimator Obtained from an Optimal Step Size (1987)
    New York : Cambridge University Press
    Econometric theory 3 (1987), S. 305-306 
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    Topics: Economics
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600010379
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