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  • American Meteorological Society
  • Annual Reviews
  • 2015-2019  (3,152)
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  • 1945-1949
  • 2015  (3,152)
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  • 2015-2019  (3,152)
  • 2005-2009
  • 1945-1949
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1333–1361
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; atlantic basin ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: This work explores the impact of orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations on the climate of marine isotope stage (MIS) 7 glacial inception and compares it to that of MIS 5. The authors use a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to simulate the mean climate state of six time slices at 115, 122, 125, 229, 236, and 239 kyr, representative of a climate evolution from interglacial to glacial inception conditions. The simulations are designed to separate the effects of orbital parameters from those of greenhouse gas (GHG). Their results show that, in all the time slices considered, MIS 7 boreal lands mean annual climate is colder than the MIS 5 one. This difference is explained at 70% by the impact of the MIS 7 GHG. While the impact of GHG over Northern Hemisphere is homogeneous, the difference in temperature between MIS 7 and MIS 5 due to orbital parameters differs regionally and is linked with the Arctic Oscillation. The perennial snow cover is larger in all the MIS 7 experiments compared to MIS 5, as a result of MIS 7 orbital parameters, strengthened by GHG. At regional scale, Eurasia exhibits the strongest response to MIS 7 cold climate with a perennial snow area 3 times larger than in MIS 5 experiments. This suggests that MIS 7 glacial inception is more favorable over this area than over North America. Furthermore, at 239 kyr, the perennial snow covers an area equivalent to that of MIS 5 glacial inception (115 kyr). The authors suggest that MIS 7 glacial inception is more extensive than MIS 5 glacial inception over the high latitudes.
    Description: Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA
    Description: Published
    Description: 8918-8933
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Arctic Oscillation ; Teleconnections ; Greenhouse gases ; Glaciation ; Paleoclimate ; 02. Cryosphere::02.03. Ice cores::02.03.05. Paleoclimate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2016-10-06
    Description: Heavy precipitation is a major hazard over Europe. It is well established that climate model projections indicate a tendency towards more extreme daily rainfall events. It is still uncertain, however, how this changing intensity translates at the sub-daily time scales. The main goal of the present study is to examine possible differences in projected changes in intense precipitation events over Europe at the daily and sub-daily (3-hourly) time scales using a state-of-the-science climate model. The focus will be on one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), considered as illustrative of a high rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations over this century. There are statistically significant differences in intense precipitation projections (up to 40%) when comparing the results at the daily and sub-daily time scales. Over north-eastern Europe, projected precipitation intensification at the 3-hour scale is lower than at the daily scale. On the other hand, Spain and the western seaboard exhibit an opposite behaviour, with stronger intensification at the 3-hour scale rather than daily scale. While the mean properties of the precipitation distributions are independent of the analysed frequency, projected precipitation intensification exhibits regional differences. This finding has implications on the extrapolation of impacts of intense precipitation events, given the daily time scale the analyses are usually performed at.
    Description: Published
    Description: 6193–6203
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: rainfall ; extreme events ; heavy precipitation ; snow ; europe ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Climate model simulations are currently the main tool to provide information about possible future climates. Apart from scenario uncertainties and model error, internal variability is a major source of uncertainty, complicating predictions of future changes. Here, a suite of statistical tests is proposed to determine the shortest time window necessary to capture the internal precipitation variability in a stationary climate. The length of this shortest window thus expresses internal variability in terms of years. The method is applied globally to daily precipitation in a 200-yr preindustrial climate simulation with the CMCC-CM coupled general circulation model. The two-sample Cramér–von Mises test is used to assess differences in precipitation distribution, the Walker test accounts for multiple testing at grid cell level, and field significance is determined by calculating the Bejamini–Hochberg false-discovery rate. Results for the investigated simulation show that internal variability of daily precipitation is regionally and seasonally dependent and that regions requiring long time windows do not necessarily coincide with areas with large standard deviation. The estimated time scales are longer over sea than over land, in the tropics than in midlatitudes, and in the transitional seasons than in winter and summer. For many land grid cells, 30 seasons suffice to capture the internal variability of daily precipitation. There exist regions, however, where even 50 years do not suffice to sample the internal variability. The results show that diagnosing daily precipitation change at different times based on fixed global snapshots of one climate simulation might not be a robust detection method.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3624–3630
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: precipitation ; internal variability ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model outputs. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The financial support of the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research, and Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA and that of INDO-MARECLIM (Project 295092) is gratefully acknowledged. A. Cherchi thankfully acknowledges the generous hospitality of the International Pacific Research Center at UH Manoa, Honolulu. Jan Hafner is thanked for providing the moist static energy budget code used here and Matthew Windlansky is thanked for comments and proof reading. H. Annamalai acknowledges the partial support by the Office of Science (BER) U.S. Department of Energy, Grant DE-FG02-07ER6445, and also by the three institutional grants (JAMSTEC, NASA, NOAA) of the IPRC. Dr. Chen and an anonymous reviewer are acknowledged for the instructive and helpful comments given.
    Description: Dry summers over the eastern Mediterranean are characterized by strong descent anchored by long Rossby waves, which are forced by diabatic heating associated with summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia. The large-scale teleconnection between rising and subsiding air masses is referred to as the "monsoon-desert mechanism.'' This study evaluates the ability of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models in representing the physical processes involved in this mechanism. An evaluation of statistics between summer climatologies of monsoon diabatic heating and that of vertical velocity over the eastern Mediterranean suggests a linear relationship. Despite large spatial diversity in monsoon heating, descent over the Mediterranean is coherently located and realistic in intensity. To measure the sensitivity of descent to the diversity in the horizontal and vertical distribution of monsoon heating, a series of linear atmosphere model experiments are performed. It is shown that column-integrated heating over both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea provides the largest descent with a more realistic spatial pattern. In the vertical, CMIP5 models underestimate the diabatic heating at upper levels, while they overestimate it at lower levels, resulting in a weaker forced response and weaker associated descent over the Mediterranean. A moist static energy budget analysis applied to CMIP5 suggests that most models capture the dominant role of horizontal temperature advection and radiative fluxes in balancing descent over the Mediterranean. Based on the objective analysis herein, a subset of models is identified that captures the teleconnection for reasons consistent with observations. The recognized processes vary at interannual time scales as well, with imprints of severe weak/strong monsoons noticeable over the Mediterranean.
    Description: Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea through the project GEMINA INDO-MARECLIM 295092 Office of Science (BER) U.S. Department of Energy DE-FG02-07ER6445 (JAMSTEC) of the IPRC (NASA) of the IPRC (NOAA) of the IPRC
    Description: Published
    Description: 6877-6903
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Rossby waves ; Teleconnections ; Diabatic heating ; Coupled models ; Model evaluation/performance ; Interannual variability ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Optimally modeling background-error horizontal correlations is crucial in ocean data assimilation. This paper investigates the impact of releasing the assumption of uniform background-error correlations in a global ocean variational analysis system. Spatially varying horizontal correlations are introduced in the recursive filter operator, which is used for modeling horizontal covariances in the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) analysis system. The horizontal correlation length scales (HCLSs) were defined on the full three-dimensional model space and computed from both a dataset of monthly anomalies with respect to the monthly climatology and through the so-called National Meteorological Center (NMC) method. Different formulas for estimating the correlation length scale are also discussed and applied to the two forecast error datasets. The new formulation is tested within a 12-yr period (2000–11) in the ½° resolution system. The comparison with the data assimilation system using uniform background-error horizontal correlations indicates the superiority of the former, especially in eddy-dominated areas. Verification skill scores report a significant reduction of RMSE, and the use of nonuniform length scales improves the representation of the eddy kinetic energy at midlatitudes, suggesting that uniform, latitude, or Rossby radius-dependent formulations are insufficient to represent the geographical variations of the background-error correlations. Furthermore, a small tuning of the globally uniform value of the length scale was found to have a small impact on the analysis system. The use of either anomalies or NMC-derived correlation length scales also has a marginal effect with respect to the use of nonuniform HCLSs. On the other hand, the application of overestimated length scales has proved to be detrimental to the analysis system in all areas and for all parameters.
    Description: This work has received funding from the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research and the Italian Ministry for the Environment, Land and Sea under the GEMINA project and from the European Commission's Copernicus program, previously known as the GMES program, under the MyOcean and MyOcean2 projects.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2330-2349
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: DATA ASSIMILATION SCHEME ; TROPICAL PACIFIC-OCEAN ; PART I ; VARIATIONAL ASSIMILATION ; COVARIANCE FUNCTIONS ; DIFFUSION EQUATION ; SYSTEM ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPLEMENTATION ; MODEL ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.04. Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, American Meteorological Society, 32, pp. 591-602
    Publication Date: 2015-06-19
    Description: Iron in the vicinity of compasses results in magnetic deviations. ADCPs mounted on steel buoyancy devices and deployed on seven moorings on the East Greenland outer shelf and upper slope from 2007 to 2008 suffered from severe magnetic deviations of $〉$90$^\circ$ rendering the ADCP data useless without a compass correction. The effects on the measured velocities, which may also be present in other oceanic velocity measurements, are explained. On each of the moorings, velocity measurements from a different instrument which was assumed not to be affected by magnetic deviation are overlapping in space and time with the compromised ones. A method is described to determine the magnetic compass deviation from the compromised and uncompromised velocity measurements and the compromised compass headings. The method depends on the assumption that at least one instrument per mooring is not compromised. With this method, the magnetic deviation as well as the originally compromised velocity records can be corrected. The method is described in detail and a MATLAB(R) script implementing the method is supplied. The success of the method is demonstrated for one of the moorings.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 32 (2015): 842–854, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00215.1.
    Description: The time and space variability of wave transformation through a tidal inlet is investigated with radar remote sensing. The frequency of wave breaking and the net wave breaking dissipation at high spatial resolution is estimated using image sequences acquired with a land-based X-band marine radar. Using the radar intensity data, transformed to normalized radar cross section σ0, the temporal and spatial distributions of wave breaking are identified using a threshold developed via the data probability density function. In addition, the inlet bathymetry is determined via depth inversion of the radar-derived frequencies and wavenumbers of the surface waves using a preexisting algorithm (cBathy). Wave height transformation is calculated through the 1D cross-shore energy flux equation incorporating the radar-estimated breaking distribution and bathymetry. The accuracy of the methodology is tested by comparison with in situ wave height observations over a 9-day period, obtaining correlation values R = 0.68 to 0.96, and root-mean-square errors from 0.05 to 0.19 m. Predicted wave forcing, computed as the along-inlet gradient of the cross-shore radiation stress was onshore during high-wave conditions, in good agreement (R = 0.95) with observations.
    Description: These data were collected as part of a joint field program, Data Assimilation and Remote Sensing for Littoral Applications (DARLA) and Rivers and Inlets (RIVET-1), both funded by the Office of Naval Research. The authors were funded through the Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-10-1-0932 and the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering.
    Description: 2015-10-01
    Keywords: Wave breaking ; Waves, oceanic ; Wind waves ; In situ oceanic observations ; Radars/Radar observations ; Remote sensing
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2006–2024, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0234.1.
    Description: The effects of wind-driven whitecapping on the evolution of the ocean surface boundary layer are examined using an idealized one-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes numerical model. Whitecapping is parameterized as a flux of turbulent kinetic energy through the sea surface and through an adjustment of the turbulent length scale. Simulations begin with a two-layer configuration and use a wind that ramps to a steady stress. This study finds that the boundary layer begins to thicken sooner in simulations with whitecapping than without because whitecapping introduces energy to the base of the boundary layer sooner than shear production does. Even in the presence of whitecapping, shear production becomes important for several hours, but then inertial oscillations cause shear production and whitecapping to alternate as the dominant energy sources for mixing. Details of these results are sensitive to initial and forcing conditions, particularly to the turbulent length scale imposed by breaking waves and the transfer velocity of energy from waves to turbulence. After 1–2 days of steady wind, the boundary layer in whitecapping simulations has thickened more than the boundary layer in simulations without whitecapping by about 10%–50%, depending on the forcing and initial conditions.
    Description: We thank Skidmore College for financial and infrastructure support, and Skidmore and the National Science Foundation for funding travel to meetings where early versions of this work were presented. We also thank the National Science Foundation, Oregon State University, Jonathan Nash, and Joe Jurisa for funding and hosting a workshop on River Plume Mixing in October, 2013, where ideas and context for this paper were developed.
    Description: 2016-02-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Mixing ; Turbulence ; Wave breaking ; Wind stress ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Mixed layer
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 8574–8584, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00809.1.
    Description: The subsurface ocean response to anthropogenic climate forcing remains poorly characterized. From the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a robust response of the lower thermocline is identified, where the warming is considerably weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics and high latitudes. The lower thermocline change is inversely proportional to the thermocline depth in the present climatology. Ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the subtropical gyre change in contrast to natural variability for which wind dominates, and the ocean response is insensitive to the spatial pattern of surface warming. An analysis based on a ventilated thermocline model shows that the pattern of the lower thermocline change can be interpreted in terms of the dynamic response to the strengthened stratification and downward heat mixing. Consequently, the subtropical gyres become intensified at the surface but weakened in the lower thermcline, consistent with results from CMIP experiments.
    Description: The work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955600), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41125019, 41206021), and the U.S. National Science Foundation (AGS 1249145, 1305719).
    Description: 2016-05-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Ocean circulation ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 11
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 546–561, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0082.1.
    Description: Model studies and observations in the Hudson River estuary indicate that frontogenesis occurs as a result of topographic forcing. Bottom fronts form just downstream of lateral constrictions, where the width of the estuary increases in the down-estuary (i.e., seaward) direction. The front forms during the last several hours of the ebb, when the combination of adverse pressure gradient in the expansion and baroclinicity cause a stagnation of near-bottom velocity. Frontogenesis is observed in two dynamical regimes: one in which the front develops at a transition from subcritical to supercritical flow and the other in which the flow is everywhere supercritical. The supercritical front formation appears to be associated with lateral flow separation. Both types of fronts are three-dimensional, with strong lateral gradients along the flanks of the channel. During spring tide conditions, the fronts dissipate during the flood, whereas during neap tides the fronts are advected landward during the flood. The zone of enhanced density gradient initiates frontogenesis at multiple constrictions along the estuary as it propagates landward more than 60 km during several days of neap tides. Frontogenesis and frontal propagation may thus be essential elements of the spring-to-neap transition to stratified conditions in partially mixed estuaries.
    Description: Support for this research was provided by NSF Grant OCE 0926427.
    Description: 2015-08-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Baroclinic flows ; Coastal flows ; Frontogenesis/frontolysis ; Fronts
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 12
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 606–612, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0221.1.
    Description: Mesoscale intrathermocline lenses are observed throughout the World Ocean and are commonly attributed to water mass anomalies advected from a distant origin. An alternative mechanism of local generation is offered herein, in which eddy–wind interaction can create lens-shaped disturbances in the thermocline. Numerical simulations illustrate how eddy–wind-driven upwelling in anticyclones can yield a convex lens reminiscent of a mode water eddy, whereas eddy–wind-driven downwelling in cyclones produces a concave lens that thins the mode water layer (a cyclonic “thinny”). Such transformations should be observable with long-term time series in the interiors of mesoscale eddies.
    Description: Support of this research by the National Science Foundation and National Aeronautics and Space Administration is gratefully acknowledged.
    Description: 2015-08-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Eddies ; Ekman pumping/transport ; Mesoscale processes ; Models and modeling ; Ocean models ; Primitive equations model
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 1126–1147, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00285.1.
    Description: The local atmospheric response to a realistic shift of the Oyashio Extension SST front in the western North Pacific is analyzed using a high-resolution (HR; 0.25°) version of the global Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5). A northward shift in the SST front causes an atmospheric response consisting of a weak surface wind anomaly but a strong vertical circulation extending throughout the troposphere. In the lower troposphere, most of the SST anomaly–induced diabatic heating is balanced by poleward transient eddy heat and moisture fluxes. Collectively, this response differs from the circulation suggested by linear dynamics, where extratropical SST forcing produces shallow anomalous heating balanced by strong equatorward cold air advection driven by an anomalous, stationary surface low to the east. This latter response, however, is obtained by repeating the same experiment except using a relatively low-resolution (LR; 1°) version of CAM5. Comparison to observations suggests that the HR response is closer to nature than the LR response. Strikingly, HR and LR experiments have almost identical vertical profiles of . However, diagnosis of the diabatic quasigeostrophic vertical pressure velocity (ω) budget reveals that HR has a substantially stronger response, which together with upper-level mean differential thermal advection balances stronger vertical motion. The results herein suggest that changes in transient eddy heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the overall local atmospheric response to Oyashio Front anomalies, which may consequently yield a stronger downstream response. These changes may require the high resolution to be fully reproduced, warranting further experiments of this type with other high-resolution atmosphere-only and fully coupled GCMs.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge funding provided by NSF to DS and MN (AGS CLD 1035325) and Y-OK and CF (AGS CLD 1035423) and by DOE to Y-OK (DE-SC0007052).
    Description: 2015-08-01
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Atmospheric circulation ; Boundary layer ; Cyclogenesis/cyclolysis ; Diabatic heating ; Extratropical cyclones
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 966–987, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0110.1.
    Description: A key remaining challenge in oceanography is the understanding and parameterization of small-scale mixing. Evidence suggests that topographic features play a significant role in enhancing mixing in the Southern Ocean. This study uses 914 high-resolution hydrographic profiles from novel EM-APEX profiling floats to investigate turbulent mixing north of the Kerguelen Plateau, a major topographic feature in the Southern Ocean. A shear–strain finescale parameterization is applied to estimate diapycnal diffusivity in the upper 1600 m of the ocean. The indirect estimates of mixing match direct microstructure profiler observations made simultaneously. It is found that mixing intensities have strong spatial and temporal variability, ranging from O(10−6) to O(10−3) m2 s−1. This study identifies topographic roughness, current speed, and wind speed as the main factors controlling mixing intensity. Additionally, the authors find strong regional variability in mixing dynamics and enhanced mixing in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current frontal region. This enhanced mixing is attributed to dissipating internal waves generated by the interaction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the topography of the Kerguelen Plateau. Extending the mixing observations from the Kerguelen region to the entire Southern Ocean, this study infers a large water mass transformation rate of 17 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) across the boundary of Antarctic Intermediate Water and Upper Circumpolar Deep Water in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This work suggests that the contribution of mixing to the Southern Ocean overturning circulation budget is particularly significant in fronts.
    Description: AM was supported by the joint CSIRO–University of Tasmania Quantitative Marine Science (QMS) program and the 2009 CSIRO Wealth from Ocean Flagship Collaborative Fund. BMS was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program, jointly funded by the Department of the Environment and CSIRO. KLPs salary support was provided by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution bridge support funds.
    Description: 2015-10-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diapycnal mixing ; Fronts ; Ocean circulation ; Topographic effects ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Mixing
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1610–1631, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0047.1.
    Description: The use of a measure to diagnose submesoscale isopycnal diffusivity by determining the best match between observations of a tracer and simulations with varying small-scale diffusivities is tested. Specifically, the robustness of a “roughness” measure to discriminate between tracer fields experiencing different submesoscale isopycnal diffusivities and advected by scaled altimetric velocity fields is investigated. This measure is used to compare numerical simulations of the tracer released at a depth of about 1.5 km in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean during the Diapycnal and Isopycnal Mixing Experiment in the Southern Ocean (DIMES) field campaign with observations of the tracer taken on DIMES cruises. The authors find that simulations with an isopycnal diffusivity of ~20 m2 s−1 best match observations in the Pacific sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), rising to ~20–50 m2 s−1 through Drake Passage, representing submesoscale processes and any mesoscale processes unresolved by the advecting altimetry fields. The roughness measure is demonstrated to be a statistically robust way to estimate a small-scale diffusivity when measurements are relatively sparse in space and time, although it does not work if there are too few measurements overall. The planning of tracer measurements during a cruise in order to maximize the robustness of the roughness measure is also considered. It is found that the robustness is increased if the spatial resolution of tracer measurements is increased with the time since tracer release.
    Description: We thank the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council and the U.S. National Science Foundation for funding the DIMES project.
    Description: 2015-12-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diffusion ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Isopycnal mixing ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Tracers ; Models and modeling ; Model comparison ; Tracers
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 72 (2015): 2786–2805, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-14-0257.1.
    Description: In Ammassalik, in southeast Greenland, downslope winds can reach hurricane intensity and represent a hazard for the local population and environment. They advect cold air down the ice sheet and over the Irminger Sea, where they drive large ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes over an important ocean convection region. Earlier studies have found them to be associated with a strong katabatic acceleration over the steep coastal slopes, flow convergence inside the valley of Ammassalik, and—in one instance—mountain wave breaking. Yet, for the general occurrence of strong downslope wind events, the importance of mesoscale processes is largely unknown. Here, two wind events—one weak and one strong—are simulated with the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with different model and topography resolutions, ranging from 1.67 to 60 km. For both events, but especially for the strong one, it is found that lower resolutions underestimate the wind speed because they misrepresent the steepness of the topography and do not account for the underlying wave dynamics. If a 5-km model instead of a 60-km model resolution in Ammassalik is used, the flow associated with the strong wind event is faster by up to 20 m s−1. The effects extend far downstream over the Irminger Sea, resulting in a diverging spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the heat fluxes. Local differences in the heat fluxes amount to 20%, with potential implications for ocean convection.
    Description: This study was supported by grants of the National Science Foundation (OCE- 0751554 and OCE-1130008) as well as the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
    Description: 2016-01-01
    Keywords: Katabatic winds ; Severe storms ; Air-sea interaction ; Mesoscale processes ; Orographic effects ; Model evaluation/performance
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 6489–6502, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0143.1.
    Description: The global water cycle is predicted to intensify under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Here the nature and strength of the expected changes for the ocean in the coming century are assessed by examining the output of several CMIP5 model runs for the periods 1990–2000 and 2090–2100 and comparing them to a dataset built from modern observations. Key elements of the water cycle, such as the atmospheric vapor transport, the evaporation minus precipitation over the ocean, and the surface salinity, show significant changes over the coming century. The intensification of the water cycle leads to increased salinity contrasts in the ocean, both within and between basins. Regional projections for several areas important to large-scale ocean circulation are presented, including the export of atmospheric moisture across the tropical Americas from Atlantic to Pacific Ocean, the freshwater gain of high-latitude deep water formation sites, and the basin averaged evaporation minus precipitation with implications for interbasin mass transports.
    Description: This research was supported by NASA Grant NNX12AF59GS03.
    Description: 2016-02-15
    Keywords: Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Hydrologic cycle ; Salinity ; Water budget ; Water vapor
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 5885–5907, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00635.1.
    Description: The structure, variability, and regional connectivity of the Tokar Gap jet (TGJ) are described using WRF Model analyses and supporting atmospheric datasets from the East African–Red Sea–Arabian Peninsula (EARSAP) region during summer 2008. Sources of the TGJ’s unique quasi-diurnal nature and association with atypically high atmospheric moisture transport are traced back to larger-scale atmospheric dynamics influencing its forcing. These include seasonal shifts in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), variability of the monsoon and North African wind regimes, and ties to other orographic flow patterns. Strong modulation of the TGJ by regional processes such as the desert heating cycle, wind convergence at the ITCZ surface front, and the local land–sea breeze cycle are described. Two case studies present the interplay of these influences in detail. The first of these was an “extreme” gap wind event on 12 July, in which horizontal velocities in the Tokar Gap exceeded 26 m s−1 and the flow from the jet extended the full width of the Red Sea basin. This event coincided with development of a large mesoscale convective complex (MCC) and precipitation at the entrance of the Tokar Gap as well as smaller gaps downstream along the Arabian Peninsula. More typical behavior of the TGJ during the 2008 summer is discussed using a second case study on 19 July. Downwind impact of the TGJ is evaluated using Lagrangian model trajectories and analysis of the lateral moisture fluxes (LMFs) during jet events. These results suggest means by which TGJ contributes to large LMFs and has potential bearing upon Sahelian rainfall and MCC development.
    Description: This work was supported by a grant from the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) as well as National Science Foundation Grant OCE0927017 and from DOD (MURI) Grant N000141110087, administered by the Office of Naval Research.
    Description: 2016-02-01
    Keywords: Africa ; Orographic effects ; Monsoons ; Atmosphere-land interaction ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Hydrometeorology
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2598–2620, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0249.1.
    Description: Through combining analytical arguments and numerical models, this study investigates the finite-amplitude meanders of shelfbreak fronts characterized by sloping isopycnals outcropping at both the surface and the shelfbreak bottom. The objective is to provide a formula for the meander length scale that can explain observed frontal length scale variability and also be verified with observations. Considering the frontal instability to be a mixture of barotropic and baroclinic instability, the derived along-shelf meander length scale formula is [b1/(1 + a1S1/2)]NH/f, where N is the buoyancy frequency; H is the depth of the front; f is the Coriolis parameter; S is the Burger number measuring the ratio of energy conversion associated with barotropic and baroclinic instability; and a1 and b1 are empirical constants. Initial growth rate of the frontal instability is formulated as [b2(1 + a1S1/2)/(1 + a2αS1/2)]NH/L, where α is the bottom slope at the foot of the front, and a2 and b2 are empirical constants. The formulas are verified using numerical sensitivity simulations, and fitting of the simulated and formulated results gives a1 = 2.69, b1 = 14.65, a2 = 5.1 × 103, and b2 = 6.2 × 10−2. The numerical simulations also show development of fast-growing frontal symmetric instability when the minimum initial potential vorticity is negative. Although frontal symmetric instability leads to faster development of barotropic and baroclinic instability at later times, it does not significantly influence the meander length scale. The derived meander length scale provides a framework for future studies of the influences of external forces on shelfbreak frontal circulation and cross-frontal exchange.
    Description: WGZ and GGG were supported by the National Science Foundation through Grant OCE-1129125.
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Instability ; Ocean circulation ; Topographic effects ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Fronts ; Models and modeling ; Numerical analysis/modeling
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  • 20
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2820–2835, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0101.1.
    Description: The response of a convective ocean basin to variations in atmospheric temperature is explored using numerical models and theory. The results indicate that the general behavior depends strongly on the frequency at which the atmosphere changes relative to the local response time to air–sea heat flux. For high-frequency forcing, the convective region in the basin interior is essentially one-dimensional and responds to the integrated local surface heat flux anomalies. For low-frequency forcing, eddy fluxes from the boundary current into the basin interior become important and act to suppress variability forced by the atmosphere. A theory is developed to quantify this time-dependent response and its influence on various oceanic quantities. The amplitude and phase of the temperature and salinity of the convective water mass, the meridional overturning circulation, the meridional heat flux, and the air–sea heat flux predicted by the theory compare well with that diagnosed from a series of numerical model calculations in both strongly eddying and weakly eddying regimes. Linearized analytic solutions provide direct estimates of each of these quantities and demonstrate their dependence on the nondimensional numbers that characterize the domain and atmospheric forcing. These results highlight the importance of mesoscale eddies in modulating the mean and time-dependent ocean response to atmospheric variability and provide a dynamical framework with which to connect ocean observations with changes in the atmosphere and surface heat flux.
    Description: This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-1232389.
    Description: 2016-05-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Deep convection ; Eddies ; Meridional overturning circulation
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 31 (2014): 2844–2857, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00108.1.
    Description: A fiber optic–based spectrometry system was developed to enable automated, long-term measurements of spectral irradiance in sea ice environments. This system utilizes a single spectrometer module that measures the irradiance transmitted by multiple optical fibers, each coupled to the input fiber of the module via a mechanical rotary multiplexer. Small custom-printed optical diffusers, fixed to the input end of each fiber, allow these probes to be frozen into ice auger holes as small as 5 cm in diameter. Temperature-dependent biases in the spectrometer module and associated electronics were examined down to −40°C using an environmental chamber to identify any artifacts that might arise when operating these electronic and optical components below their vendor-defined lower temperature limits. The optical performance of the entire system was assessed by freezing multiple fiber probes in a 1.2-m-tall ice column, illuminating from above with a light source, and measuring spectral irradiance distributions at different depths within the ice column. Results indicated that the radiometric sensitivity of this fiber-based system is comparable to that of commercially available oceanographic spectroradiometers.
    Description: This research was supported by the Joint Initiative Awards Fund from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, through Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s internal Interdisciplinary Study Award program (S. R. L. and T. M.), and by a China scholarship council (CSC) scholarship and the Program for Zhejiang Leading Team of S&T Innovation (Grant 2010R50036) provided to H. W.
    Description: 2015-06-01
    Keywords: Sea ice ; In situ oceanic observations
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 32 (2015): 412–433, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00080.1.
    Description: A near-surface specific humidity (Qa) and air temperature (Ta) climatology on daily and 0.25° grids was constructed by the objectively analyzed air–sea fluxes (OAFlux) project by objectively merging two recent satellite-derived high-resolution analyses, the OAFlux existing 1° analysis, and atmospheric reanalyses. The two satellite products include the multi-instrument microwave regression (MIMR) Qa and Ta analysis and the Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes, version 3 (GSSTF3), Qa analysis. This study assesses the degree of improvement made by OAFlux using buoy time series measurements at 137 locations and a global empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. There are a total of 130 855 collocated daily values for Qa and 283 012 collocated daily values for Ta in the buoy evaluation. It is found that OAFlux Qa has a mean difference close to 0 and a root-mean-square (RMS) difference of 0.73 g kg−1, and Ta has a mean difference of −0.03°C and an RMS difference of 0.45°C. OAFlux shows no major systematic bias with respect to buoy measurements over all buoy locations except for the vicinity of the Gulf Stream boundary current, where the RMS difference exceeds 1.8°C in Ta and 1.2 g kg−1 in Qa. The buoy evaluation indicates that OAFlux represents an improvement over MIMR and GSSTF3. The global EOF-based intercomparison analysis indicates that OAFlux has a similar spatial–temporal variability pattern with that of three atmospheric reanalyses including MERRA, NCEP-1, and ERA-Interim, but that it differs from GSSTF3 and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR).
    Description: This study was supported by the NOAA Ocean Climate Observation (OCO) program under Grant NA09OAR4320129.
    Description: 2015-09-01
    Keywords: Data processing ; Databases ; In situ oceanic observations ; Satellite observations
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015):1189–1204, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0122.1.
    Description: Winter outcropping of the Eighteen Degree Water (EDW) and its subsequent dispersion are studied using a ° eddy-resolving simulation of the Family of Linked Atlantic Modeling Experiments (FLAME). Outcropped EDW columns in the model simulations are detected in each winter from 1990 to 1999, and particles are deployed in the center of each outcropped EDW column. Subsequently, the trajectories of these particles are calculated for the following 5 yr. The particles slowly spread away from the outcropping region into the nonoutcropping/subducted EDW region south of ~30°N and eventually to the non-EDW region in the greater subtropical gyre. Approximately 30% of the particles are found in non-EDW waters 1 yr after deployment; after 5 yr, only 25% of the particles are found within EDW. The reoutcropping time is defined as the number of years between when a particle is originally deployed in an outcropping EDW column and when that particle is next found in an outcropping EDW column. Of the particles, 66% are found to reoutcrop as EDW in 1 yr, and less than 5% of the particles outcrop in each of the subsequent 4 yr. While the individual trajectories exhibit significant eddy-like motions, the time scale of reoutcropping is primarily set by the mean circulation. The dominance of reoutcropping in 1 yr suggests that EDW outcropping contributes considerably to the persistence of surface temperature anomalies from one winter to the next, that is, the reemergence of winter sea surface temperature anomalies.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge the support from the NSF OCE Physical Oceanography program (NSF OCE-0961090 to Y-OK and J-JP; NSF OCE-0960776 to MSL and SFG; and NSF OCE-1242989 to Y-OK).
    Description: 2015-10-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Ocean circulation ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Water masses
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 3004–3023, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00591.1.
    Description: Time series of surface meteorology and air–sea exchanges of heat, freshwater, and momentum collected from a long-term surface mooring located 1600 km west of the coast of northern Chile are analyzed. The observations, spanning 2000–10, have been withheld from assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. As such, they provide a unique in situ record of atmosphere–ocean coupling in a trade wind region characterized by persistent stratocumulus clouds. The annual cycle is described, as is the interannual variability. Annual variability in the air–sea heat flux is dominated by the annual cycle in net shortwave radiation. In austral summer, the ocean is heated; the 9-yr mean annual heating of the ocean is 38 W m−2. Ocean cooling is seen in 2006–08, coincident with La Niña events. Over the full record, significant trends were found. Increases in wind speed, wind stress, and latent heat flux over 9 yr were 0.8 m s−1, 0.022 N m−2, and 20 W m−2 or 13%, 29%, and 20% of the respective 9-yr means. The decrease in the annual mean net heat flux was 39 W m−2 or 104% of the mean. These changes were found to be largely associated with spring and fall. If this change persists, the annual mean net air–sea heat flux will change sign by 2016, when the magnitude of the wind stress will have increased by close to 60%.
    Description: This work is supported by the NOAA Climate Observation Division (NA09OAR4320129).
    Keywords: Climate variability ; Trends
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1410–1425, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0192.1.
    Description: The west-to-east crossover of boundary currents has been seen in mean circulation schemes from several past models of the Red Sea. This study investigates the mechanisms that produce and control the crossover in an idealized, eddy-resolving numerical model of the Red Sea. The authors also review the observational evidence and derive an analytical estimate for the crossover latitude. The surface buoyancy loss increases northward in the idealized model, and the resultant mean circulation consists of an anticyclonic gyre in the south and a cyclonic gyre in the north. In the midbasin, the northward surface flow crosses from the western boundary to the eastern boundary. Numerical experiments with different parameters indicate that the crossover latitude of the boundary currents changes with f0, β, and the meridional gradient of surface buoyancy forcing. In the analytical estimate, which is based on quasigeostrophic, β-plane dynamics, the crossover is predicted to lie at the latitude where the net potential vorticity advection (including an eddy component) is zero. Various terms in the potential vorticity budget can be estimated using a buoyancy budget, a thermal wind balance, and a parameterization of baroclinic instability.
    Description: This work is supported by Award USA 00002, KSA 00011, and KSA 00011/02 made by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), by National Science Foundation Grants OCE0927017, OCE1154641, and OCE85464100, and by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Academic Program Office.
    Description: 2015-11-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Boundary currents ; Buoyancy ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean dynamics
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1822–1842, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0147.1.
    Description: Influences of time-dependent precipitation on water mass transformation and heat budgets in an idealized marginal sea are examined using theoretical and numerical models. The equations proposed by Spall in 2012 are extended to cases with time-dependent precipitation whose form is either a step function or a sinusoidal function. The theory predicts the differences in temperature and salinity between the convective water and the boundary current as well as the magnitudes of heat fluxes into the marginal sea and across the sea surface. Moreover, the theory reveals that there are three inherent time scales: relaxation time scales for temperature and salinity and a precipitation time scale. The relaxation time scales are determined by a steady solution of the theoretical model with steady precipitation. The relaxation time scale for temperature is always smaller than that for salinity as a result of not only the difference in the form of fluxes at the surface but also the variation in the eddy transport from the boundary current. These three time scales and the precipitation amplitude determine the strength of the ocean response to changes in precipitation and the phase relation between precipitation, changes in salinity and temperature, and changes in heat fluxes. It is demonstrated that the theoretical predictions agree qualitatively well with results from the eddy-resolving numerical model. This demonstrates the fundamental role of mesoscale eddies in the ocean response to time-dependent forcing and provides a framework with which to assess the extent to which observed variability in marginal sea convection and water mass transformation are consistent with an external forcing by variations in precipitation.
    Description: This work was initiated at the 2013 WHOI Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Summer Program, which was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research. This work was also supported by Grant-in-Aid for Research Fellow (25·8466) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology (MEXT), Japan, the Program for Leading Graduate Schools, MEXT, Japan (YY), and by the National Science Foundation Grant OCE-1232389 (MAS).
    Description: 2016-01-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Boundary currents ; Deep convection ; Eddies ; Ocean dynamics ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Precipitation
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2806–2819, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0061.1.
    Description: An eastward-flowing current of a homogeneous fluid with velocity U, contained in a channel of width L, impinges on an island of width of O(L), and the resulting interaction and dynamics are studied for values of the supercriticality parameter, b = βL2/U, both larger and smaller than π2. The former case is subcritical with respect to Rossby waves, and the latter is supercritical. The nature of the flow field depends strongly on b, and in particular, the nature of the flow around the island and the proportion of the flow passing to the north or south of the island are sensitive to b and to the position of the island in the channel. The problem is studied analytically in a relatively simple, nonlinear quasigeostrophic and adiabatic framework and numerically with a shallow-water model that allows a qualitative extension of the results to the equator. Although the issues involved are motivated by the interaction of the Equatorial Undercurrent and the Galapagos Islands, the analysis presented here focuses on the fundamental issue of the distinctive nature of the flow as a function of Rossby wave criticality.
    Description: Supported by the National Science Foundation Grant OCE-0959381.
    Description: 2016-05-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Ocean circulation ; Ocean dynamics ; Waves, oceanic
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2773–2789, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0031.1.
    Description: Tidal oscillatory salt transport, induced by the correlation between tidal variations in salinity and velocity, is an important term for the subtidal salt balance under the commonly used Eulerian method of salt transport decomposition. In this paper, its mechanisms in a partially stratified estuary are investigated with a numerical model of the Hudson estuary. During neap tides, when the estuary is strongly stratified, the tidal oscillatory salt transport is mainly due to the hydraulic response of the halocline to the longitudinal variation of topography. This mechanism does not involve vertical mixing, so it should not be regarded as oscillatory shear dispersion, but instead it should be regarded as advective transport of salt, which results from the vertical distortion of exchange flow obtained in the Eulerian decomposition by vertical fluctuations of the halocline. During spring tides, the estuary is weakly stratified, and vertical mixing plays a significant role in the tidal variation of salinity. In the spring tide regime, the tidal oscillatory salt transport is mainly due to oscillatory shear dispersion. In addition, the transient lateral circulation near large channel curvature causes the transverse tilt of the halocline. This mechanism has little effect on the cross-sectionally integrated tidal oscillatory salt transport, but it results in an apparent left–right cross-channel asymmetry of tidal oscillatory salt transport. With the isohaline framework, tidal oscillatory salt transport can be regarded as a part of the net estuarine salt transport, and the Lagrangian advective mechanism and dispersive mechanism can be distinguished.
    Description: Tao Wang was supported by the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (Grant SKLEC-KF201509) and Chinese Scholarship Council. Geyer was supported by by NSF Grant OCE 0926427. Wensheng Jiang was supported by NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant U1406401).
    Description: 2016-05-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Estuaries ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Baroclinic flows ; Dispersion ; Shear structure/flows ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Diapycnal mixing ; Models and modeling ; Regional models
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 44 (2014): 3033–3053, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-13-0227.1.
    Description: The East Greenland Current (EGC) had long been considered the main pathway for the Denmark Strait overflow (DSO). Recent observations, however, indicate that the north Icelandic jet (NIJ), which flows westward along the north coast of Iceland, is a major separate pathway for the DSO. In this study a two-layer numerical model and complementary integral constraints are used to examine various pathways that lead to the DSO and to explore plausible mechanisms for the NIJ’s existence. In these simulations, a westward and NIJ-like current emerges as a robust feature and a main pathway for the Denmark Strait overflow. Its existence can be explained through circulation integrals around advantageous contours. One such constraint spells out the consequences of overflow water as a source of low potential vorticity. A stronger constraint can be added when the outflow occurs through two outlets: it takes the form of a circulation integral around the Iceland–Faroe Ridge. In either case, the direction of overall circulation about the contour can be deduced from the required frictional torques. Some effects of wind stress forcing are also examined. The overall positive curl of the wind forces cyclonic gyres in both layers, enhancing the East Greenland Current. The wind stress forcing weakens but does not eliminate the NIJ. It also modifies the sign of the deep circulation in various subbasins and alters the path by which overflow water is brought to the Faroe Bank Channel, all in ways that bring the idealized model more in line with observations. The sequence of numerical experiments separates the effects of wind and buoyancy forcing and shows how each is important.
    Description: This study has been supported by National Science Foundation (OCE0927017 and ARC1107412).
    Description: 2015-06-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Boundary currents ; Channel flows ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation ; Topographic effects
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1356–1375, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-13-0259.1.
    Description: Eddy–mean flow interactions along the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet are investigated using a vorticity budget of a high-resolution ocean model simulation, averaged over a 13-yr period. The simulation explicitly resolves mesoscale eddies in the KE and is forced with air–sea fluxes representing the years 1995–2007. A mean-eddy decomposition in a jet-following coordinate system removes the variability of the jet path from the eddy components of velocity; thus, eddy kinetic energy in the jet reference frame is substantially lower than in geographic coordinates and exhibits a cross-jet asymmetry that is consistent with the baroclinic instability criterion of the long-term mean field. The vorticity budget is computed in both geographic (i.e., Eulerian) and jet reference frames; the jet frame budget reveals several patterns of eddy forcing that are largely attributed to varicose modes of variability. Eddies tend to diffuse the relative vorticity minima/maxima that flank the jet, removing momentum from the fast-moving jet core and reinforcing the quasi-permanent meridional meanders in the mean jet. A pattern associated with the vertical stretching of relative vorticity in eddies indicates a deceleration (acceleration) of the jet coincident with northward (southward) quasi-permanent meanders. Eddy relative vorticity advection outside of the eastward jet core is balanced mostly by vertical stretching of the mean flow, which through baroclinic adjustment helps to drive the flanking recirculation gyres. The jet frame vorticity budget presents a well-defined picture of eddy activity, illustrating along-jet variations in eddy–mean flow interaction that may have implications for the jet’s dynamics and cross-frontal tracer fluxes.
    Description: A. S. Delman (ASD) and J. L. McClean (JLM) were supported by NSF Grant OCE-0850463 and Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant DE-FG02-05ER64119. ASD and J. Sprintall were also supported by a NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship (NESSF), Grant NNX13AM93H. JLM was also supported by U.S. DOE Office of Science grant entitled “Ultra-High Resolution Global Climate Simulation” via a Los Alamos National Laboratory subcontract. S. R. Jayne was supported by NSF Grant OCE-0849808. Computational resources for the model run were provided by NSF Resource Grants TG-OCE110013 and TG-OCE130010.
    Description: 2015-11-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; North Pacific Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Forcing ; Instability ; Mesoscale processes ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Jets ; Models and modeling ; General circulation models
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 32 (2015): 1042–1057, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00161.1.
    Description: A 1-yr experiment using a pressure-sensor-equipped inverted echo sounder (PIES) was conducted in Sermilik Fjord in southeastern Greenland (66°N, 38°E) from August 2011 to September 2012. Based on these high-latitude data, the interpretation of PIESs’ acoustic travel-time records from regions that are periodically ice covered were refined. In addition, new methods using PIESs for detecting icebergs and sea ice and for estimating iceberg drafts and drift speeds were developed and tested. During winter months, the PIES in Sermilik Fjord logged about 300 iceberg detections and recorded a 2-week period in early March of land-fast ice cover over the instrument site, consistent with satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. The deepest icebergs in the fjord were found to have keel depths greater than approximately 350 m. Average and maximum iceberg speeds were approximately 0.2 and 0.5 m s−1, respectively. The maximum tidal range at the site was ±1.8 m and during neap tides the range was ±0.3 m, as shown by the PIES’s pressure record.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation through the Divisions of Ocean Science and Polar Programs under Grant PLR-1332911. A. Silvano was supported as a WHOI guest student through a Gori Fellowship.
    Keywords: Glaciers ; Sea ice ; Ice thickness ; Data processing ; In situ oceanic observations ; Instrumentation/sensors
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1735–1756, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0238.1.
    Description: The Lofoten basin of the Nordic Seas is recognized as a crucial component of the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic because of the large horizontal extent of Atlantic Water and winter surface buoyancy loss. In this study, hydrographic and current measurements collected from a mooring deployed in the Lofoten basin from July 2010 to September 2012 are used to describe water mass transformation and the mesoscale eddy field. Winter mixed layer depths (MLDs) are observed to reach approximately 400 m, with larger MLDs and denser properties resulting from the colder 2010 winter. A heat budget of the upper water column requires lateral input, which balances the net annual heat loss of ~80 W m−2. The lateral flux is a result of mesoscale eddies, which dominate the velocity variability. Eddy velocities are enhanced in the upper 1000 m, with a barotropic component that reaches the bottom. Detailed examination of two eddies, from April and August 2012, highlights the variability of the eddy field and eddy properties. Temperature and salinity properties of the April eddy suggest that it originated from the slope current but was ventilated by surface fluxes. The properties within the eddy were similar to those of the mode water, indicating that convection within the eddies may make an important contribution to water mass transformation. A rough estimate of eddy flux per unit boundary current length suggests that fluxes in the Lofoten basin are larger than in the Labrador Sea because of the enhanced boundary current–interior density difference.
    Description: The work was supported by NSF OCE 0850416.
    Description: 2015-12-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Boundary currents ; Eddies ; Fluxes ; Mesoscale processes ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Thermohaline circulation
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 4653–4687, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1.
    Description: Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMM growing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°–4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southern Australia across models is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.
    Description: This work was initiated at the Dissertations Initiative for the Advancement of Climate Change Research (DISCCRS) V Symposium, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation through collaborative Grants SES-0932916 and SES-0931402. CCU was supported by a University of New South Wales Vice-Chancellor Fellowship and the Penzance Endowed Fund and John P. Chase Memorial Endowed Fund at WHOI. TET was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Award DE-EE0004397. NC was funded by NSF Grant EAR-1204774. We are indebted to the FORMAS-funded Land Use Today and Tomorrow (LUsTT) project (Grant 211-2009-1682) for financial support.
    Keywords: Australia ; North America ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climate variability ; Agriculture
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96 (2015): 921–938, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1.
    Description: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.
    Description: AC acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation for this study.
    Description: 2015-12-01
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2381–2406, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0086.1.
    Description: While near-inertial waves are known to be generated by atmospheric storms, recent observations in the Kuroshio Front find intense near-inertial internal-wave shear along sloping isopycnals, even during calm weather. Recent literature suggests that spontaneous generation of near-inertial waves by frontal instabilities could represent a major sink for the subinertial quasigeostrophic circulation. An unforced three-dimensional 1-km-resolution model, initialized with the observed cross-Kuroshio structure, is used to explore this mechanism. After several weeks, the model exhibits growth of 10–100-km-scale frontal meanders, accompanied by O(10) mW m−2 spontaneous generation of near-inertial waves associated with readjustment of submesoscale fronts forced out of balance by mesoscale confluent flows. These waves have properties resembling those in the observations. However, they are reabsorbed into the model Kuroshio Front with no more than 15% dissipating or radiating away. Thus, spontaneous generation of near-inertial waves represents a redistribution of quasigeostrophic energy rather than a significant sink.
    Description: “The Study of Kuroshio Ecosystem Dynamics for Sustainable Fisheries (SKED)” supported by MEXT, MIT-Hayashi Seed Fund, ONR (Awards N000140910196 and N000141210101), NSF (Award OCE 0928617, 0928138) for support.
    Description: 2016-03-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Frontogenesis/frontolysis ; Fronts ; Internal waves ; Turbulence ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Jets
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 7659–7677, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0007.1.
    Description: Maximum covariance analysis of a preindustrial control simulation of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), shows that a barotropic signal in winter broadly resembling a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) follows an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) by about 7 yr. The delay is due to the cyclonic propagation along the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and the subpolar gyre of a SST warming linked to a northward shift and intensification of the NAC, together with an increasing SST cooling linked to increasing southward advection of subpolar water along the western boundary and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream (GS). These changes result in a meridional SST dipole, which follows the AMOC intensification after 6 or 7 yr. The SST changes were initiated by the strengthening of the western subpolar gyre and by bottom torque at the crossover of the deep branches of the AMOC with the NAC on the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the GS near the Tail of the Grand Banks, respectively. The heat flux damping of the SST dipole shifts the region of maximum atmospheric transient eddy growth southward, leading to a negative NAO-like response. No significant atmospheric response is found to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), which is broadly realistic but shifted south and associated with a much weaker meridional SST gradient than the AMOC fingerprint. Nonetheless, the wintertime atmospheric response to the AMOC shows some similarity with the observed response to the AMO, suggesting that the ocean–atmosphere interactions are broadly realistic in CCSM4.
    Description: Support from the NOAA Climate Program Office (NA10OAR4310202 and NA13OAR4310139), NSF EaSM2 (OCE 1242989) and the European Community 7th framework programme (FP7 2007-2013) under Grant Agreement 308299 (NACLIM) is gratefully acknowledged. The analysis benefited from the IPSL Prodiguer-Ciclad facility, which is supported by CNRS, UPMC, Labex L-IPSL funded by the ANR (Grant ANR-10-LABX-0018) and by the European FP7 IS-ENES2 project (Grant 312979).
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Meridional overturning circulation ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Climate models ; Climate variability
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 32 (2015): 1945–1959, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00222.1.
    Description: Observations of waves and setup on a steep, sandy beach are used to identify and assess potential applications of spatially dense lidar measurements for studying inner-surf and swash-zone hydrodynamics. There is good agreement between lidar- and pressure-based estimates of water levels (r2 = 0.98, rmse = 0.05 m), setup (r2 = 0.92, rmse = 0.03 m), infragravity wave heights (r2 = 0.91, rmse = 0.03 m), swell–sea wave heights (r2 = 0.87, rmse = 0.07 m), and energy density spectra. Lidar observations did not degrade with range (up to 65 m offshore of the lidar) when there was sufficient foam present on the water surface to generate returns, suggesting that for narrow-beam 1550-nm light, spatially varying spot size, grazing angle affects, and linear interpolation (to estimate the water surface over areas without returns) are not large sources of error. Consistent with prior studies, the lidar and pressure observations indicate that standing infragravity waves dominate inner-surf and swash energy at low frequencies and progressive swell–sea waves dominate at higher frequencies. The spatially dense lidar measurements enable estimates of reflection coefficients from pairs of locations at a range of spatial lags (thus spanning a wide range of frequencies or wavelengths). Reflection is high at low frequencies, increases with beach slope, and decreases with increasing offshore wave height, consistent with prior studies. Lidar data also indicate that wave asymmetry increases rapidly across the inner surf and swash. The comparisons with pressure measurements and with theory demonstrate that lidar measures inner-surf waves and setup accurately, and can be used for studies of inner-surf and swash-zone hydrodynamics.
    Description: Funding was provided by the USACE Coastal Field Data Collection (CFDC) and Coastal Ocean Data Systems (CODS) programs, the Office of Naval Research, the National Science Foundation, and the Assistant Secretary of Defense (R&E).
    Description: 2016-04-01
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2497–2521, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0128.1.
    Description: Oceanic density overturns are commonly used to parameterize the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy. This method assumes a linear scaling between the Thorpe length scale LT and the Ozmidov length scale LO. Historic evidence supporting LT ~ LO has been shown for relatively weak shear-driven turbulence of the thermocline; however, little support for the method exists in regions of turbulence driven by the convective collapse of topographically influenced overturns that are large by open-ocean standards. This study presents a direct comparison of LT and LO, using vertical profiles of temperature and microstructure shear collected in the Luzon Strait—a site characterized by topographically influenced overturns up to O(100) m in scale. The comparison is also done for open-ocean sites in the Brazil basin and North Atlantic where overturns are generally smaller and due to different processes. A key result is that LT/LO increases with overturn size in a fashion similar to that observed in numerical studies of Kelvin–Helmholtz (K–H) instabilities for all sites but is most clear in data from the Luzon Strait. Resultant bias in parameterized dissipation is mitigated by ensemble averaging; however, a positive bias appears when instantaneous observations are depth and time integrated. For a series of profiles taken during a spring tidal period in the Luzon Strait, the integrated value is nearly an order of magnitude larger than that based on the microstructure observations. Physical arguments supporting LT ~ LO are revisited, and conceptual regimes explaining the relationship between LT/LO and a nondimensional overturn size are proposed. In a companion paper, Scotti obtains similar conclusions from energetics arguments and simulations.
    Description: B.D.M. and S.K.V. gratefully acknowledge the support of the Office of Naval Research under Grants N00014-12-1-0279, N00014-12-1-0282, and N00014-12-1-0938 (Program Manager: Dr. Terri Paluszkiewicz). S.K.V. also acknowledges support of the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-1151838. L.S.L. acknowledges support for BBTRE by the National Science Foundation by Contract OCE94-15589 and NATRE and IWISE by the Office of Naval Research by Contracts N00014-92-1323 and N00014-10-10315. J.N.M. was supported through Grant 1256620 from the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research (IWISE Project).
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diapycnal mixing ; Small scale processes ; Turbulence ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Mixing ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Profilers, oceanic ; Models and modeling ; Parameterization
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2621–2639, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0239.1.
    Description: Measurements made as part of a large-scale experiment to examine wind-driven circulation and mixing in Chesapeake Bay demonstrate that circulations consistent with Langmuir circulation play an important role in surface boundary layer dynamics. Under conditions when the turbulent Langmuir number Lat is low (〈0.5), the surface mixed layer is characterized by 1) elevated vertical turbulent kinetic energy; 2) decreased anisotropy; 3) negative vertical velocity skewness indicative of strong/narrow downwelling and weak/broad upwelling; and 4) strong negative correlations between low-frequency vertical velocity and the velocity in the direction of wave propagation. These characteristics appear to be primarily the result of the vortex force associated with the surface wave field, but convection driven by a destabilizing heat flux is observed and appears to contribute significantly to the observed negative vertical velocity skewness. Conditions that favor convection usually also have strong Langmuir forcing, and these two processes probably both contribute to the surface mixed layer turbulence. Conditions in which traditional stress-driven turbulence is important are limited in this dataset. Unlike other shallow coastal systems where full water column Langmuir circulation has been observed, the salinity stratification in Chesapeake Bay is nearly always strong enough to prevent full-depth circulation from developing.
    Description: The funding for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation Grants OCE-1339032 and OCE-1338518.
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Convection ; Instability ; Mixing ; Turbulence ; Wave breaking ; Wind stress
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  • 40
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    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, 143, pp. 1554-1567, ISSN: 0027-0644
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: Ensemble square root filters can either assimilate all observations that are available at a given time at once, or assimilate the observations in batches or one at a time. For large-scale models, the filters are typically applied with a localized analysis step. This study demonstrates that the interaction of serial observation processing and localization can destabilize the analysis process and examines under which conditions the instability becomes significant. The instability results from a repeated inconsistent update of the state error covariance matrix that is caused by the localization. The inconsistency is present in all ensemble Kalman filters, except the classical ensemble Kalman filter with perturbed observations. With serial observation processing, its effect is small in cases when the assimilation changes the ensemble of model states only slightly. However, when the assimilation has a strong effect on the state estimates, the interaction of localization and serial observation processing can significantly deteriorate the filter performance. In realistic large-scale applications, when the assimilation changes the states only slightly and when the distribution of the observations is irregular and changing over time, the instability is likely not significant.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2021-11-09
    Description: Ensembles of retrospective 2-month dynamical forecasts initiated on 1May are used to predict the onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for the period 1989–2005. The subseasonal predictions (SSPs) are based on a coupled general circulation model and recently they have been upgraded by the realistic initialization of the atmosphere with initial conditions taken from reanalysis. Two objective large-scale methods based on dynamical circulation and hydrological indices are applied to detect the ISM onset. The SSPs show some skill in forecasting earlier-than-normal ISM onsets, while they have difficulty in predicting late onsets. It is shown that significant contribution to the skill in forecasting early ISM onsets comes from the newly developed initialization of the atmosphere from reanalysis. On one hand, atmospheric initialization produces a better representation of the atmospheric mean state in the initial conditions, leading to a systematically improved monsoon onset sequence. On the other hand, the initialization of the atmosphere allows some skill in forecasting the northward propagating intraseasonal wind and precipitation anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. The northward propagating intraseasonal modes trigger the monsoon in some early-onset years. The realistic phase initialization of these modes improves the forecasts of the associated earlier-than-normal monsoon onsets. The prediction of late onsets is not noticeably improved by the initialization of the atmosphere. It is suggested that late onsets of the monsoon are too far away from the start date of the forecasts to conserve enough memory of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) anomalies and of the improved representation of the mean state in the initial conditions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 778-793
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: indian summer monsoon ; onset ; seasonal predictions ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.04. Processes and Dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Monthly Weather Review 143 (2015): 195–211, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-14-00051.1.
    Description: Lagrangian measurements from passive ocean instruments provide a useful source of data for estimating and forecasting the ocean’s state (velocity field, salinity field, etc.). However, trajectories from these instruments are often highly nonlinear, leading to difficulties with widely used data assimilation algorithms such as the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Additionally, the velocity field is often modeled as a high-dimensional variable, which precludes the use of more accurate methods such as the particle filter (PF). Here, a hybrid particle–ensemble Kalman filter is developed that applies the EnKF update to the potentially high-dimensional velocity variables, and the PF update to the relatively low-dimensional, highly nonlinear drifter position variable. This algorithm is tested with twin experiments on the linear shallow water equations. In experiments with infrequent observations, the hybrid filter consistently outperformed the EnKF, both by better capturing the Bayesian posterior and by better tracking the truth.
    Description: The work of Apte benefited from the support of the AIRBUS Group Corporate Foundation Chair in Mathematics of Complex Systems established in ICTS-TIFR. Spiller would like to acknowledge support by NSF Grant DMS-1228265 and ONR Grant N00014-11-1-0087. Sandstede gratefully acknowledges support by the NSF through Grant DMS-0907904. Slivinski was supported by the NSF through Grants DMS-0907904 and DMS-1148284.
    Description: 2015-07-01
    Keywords: Bayesian methods ; Filtering techniques ; Kalman filters ; Statistical techniques ; Data assimilation
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  • 43
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    Unknown
    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 31 (2014): 2871, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-14-00187.1.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 778–791, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0164.1.
    Description: This study examines anisotropic transport properties of the eddying North Atlantic flow, using an idealized model of the double-gyre oceanic circulation and altimetry-derived velocities. The material transport by the time-dependent flow (quantified by the eddy diffusivity tensor) varies geographically and is anisotropic, that is, it has a well-defined direction of the maximum transport. One component of the time-dependent flow, zonally elongated large-scale transients, is particularly important for the anisotropy, as it corresponds to primarily zonal material transport and long correlation time scales. The importance of these large-scale zonal transients in the material distribution is further confirmed with simulations of idealized color dye tracers, which has implications for parameterizations of the eddy transport in non-eddy-resolving models.
    Description: IK would like to acknowledge support through the NSF Grant OCE-1154923. IR was supported by the NSF OCE-1154641 and NASA Grant NNX14AH29G.
    Description: 2015-09-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Eddies ; Lagrangian circulation/transport ; Mesoscale processes ; Ocean circulation ; Models and modeling ; Tracers
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 8289–8318, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00555.1.
    Description: This study quantifies mean annual and monthly fluxes of Earth’s water cycle over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the flux estimates are based on satellite measurements first and data-integrating models second. A careful accounting of uncertainty in the estimates is included. It is applied within a routine that enforces multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework in order to produce objectively determined optimized flux estimates. In the majority of cases, the observed annual surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are negligible. Fluxes were poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Many of the satellite systems that contributed data have been or will soon be lost or replaced. Models that integrate ground-based and remote observations will be critical for ameliorating gaps and discontinuities in the data records caused by these transitions. Continued development of such models is essential for maximizing the value of the observations. Next-generation observing systems are the best hope for significantly improving global water budget accounting.
    Description: This research was funded by multiple grants from NASA’s Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program.
    Description: 2016-05-01
    Keywords: Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Water budget ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Remote sensing ; Mathematical and statistical techniques ; Numerical analysis/modeling
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96 (2015): 1257–1279, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00015.1.
    Description: Lateral stirring is a basic oceanographic phenomenon affecting the distribution of physical, chemical, and biological fields. Eddy stirring at scales on the order of 100 km (the mesoscale) is fairly well understood and explicitly represented in modern eddy-resolving numerical models of global ocean circulation. The same cannot be said for smaller-scale stirring processes. Here, the authors describe a major oceanographic field experiment aimed at observing and understanding the processes responsible for stirring at scales of 0.1–10 km. Stirring processes of varying intensity were studied in the Sargasso Sea eddy field approximately 250 km southeast of Cape Hatteras. Lateral variability of water-mass properties, the distribution of microscale turbulence, and the evolution of several patches of inert dye were studied with an array of shipboard, autonomous, and airborne instruments. Observations were made at two sites, characterized by weak and moderate background mesoscale straining, to contrast different regimes of lateral stirring. Analyses to date suggest that, in both cases, the lateral dispersion of natural and deliberately released tracers was O(1) m2 s–1 as found elsewhere, which is faster than might be expected from traditional shear dispersion by persistent mesoscale flow and linear internal waves. These findings point to the possible importance of kilometer-scale stirring by submesoscale eddies and nonlinear internal-wave processes or the need to modify the traditional shear-dispersion paradigm to include higher-order effects. A unique aspect of the Scalable Lateral Mixing and Coherent Turbulence (LatMix) field experiment is the combination of direct measurements of dye dispersion with the concurrent multiscale hydrographic and turbulence observations, enabling evaluation of the underlying mechanisms responsible for the observed dispersion at a new level.
    Description: The bulk of this work was funded under the Scalable Lateral Mixing and Coherent Turbulence Departmental Research Initiative and the Physical Oceanography Program. The dye experiments were supported jointly by the Office of Naval Research and the National Science Foundation Physical Oceanography Program (Grants OCE-0751653 and OCE-0751734).
    Description: 2016-02-01
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 8319-8346, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00556.1.
    Description: New objectively balanced observation-based reconstructions of global and continental energy budgets and their seasonal variability are presented that span the golden decade of Earth-observing satellites at the start of the twenty-first century. In the absence of balance constraints, various combinations of modern flux datasets reveal that current estimates of net radiation into Earth’s surface exceed corresponding turbulent heat fluxes by 13–24 W m−2. The largest imbalances occur over oceanic regions where the component algorithms operate independent of closure constraints. Recent uncertainty assessments suggest that these imbalances fall within anticipated error bounds for each dataset, but the systematic nature of required adjustments across different regions confirm the existence of biases in the component fluxes. To reintroduce energy and water cycle closure information lost in the development of independent flux datasets, a variational method is introduced that explicitly accounts for the relative accuracies in all component fluxes. Applying the technique to a 10-yr record of satellite observations yields new energy budget estimates that simultaneously satisfy all energy and water cycle balance constraints. Globally, 180 W m−2 of atmospheric longwave cooling is balanced by 74 W m−2 of shortwave absorption and 106 W m−2 of latent and sensible heat release. At the surface, 106 W m−2 of downwelling radiation is balanced by turbulent heat transfer to within a residual heat flux into the oceans of 0.45 W m−2, consistent with recent observations of changes in ocean heat content. Annual mean energy budgets and their seasonal cycles for each of seven continents and nine ocean basins are also presented.
    Description: This study is the result of a collaboration of multiple investigators each supported by the NEWS program.
    Keywords: Climatology ; Energy budget/balance ; Heat budgets/fluxes ; Radiative fluxes ; Surface fluxes ; Satellite observations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 9359–9376, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00228.1.
    Description: Multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is examined based on a comparison of the AMOC streamfunctions in depth and in density space, in a 700-yr present-day control integration of the fully coupled Community Climate System Model, version 3. The commonly used depth-coordinate AMOC primarily exhibits the variability associated with the deep equatorward transport that follows the changes in the Labrador Sea deep water formation. On the other hand, the density-based AMOC emphasizes the variability associated with the subpolar gyre circulation in the upper ocean leading to the changes in the Labrador Sea convection. Combining the two representations indicates that the ~20-yr periodicity of the AMOC variability in the first half of the simulation is primarily due to an ocean-only mode resulting from the coupling of the deep equatorward flow and the upper ocean gyre circulation near the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. In addition, the density-based AMOC reveals a gradual change in the deep ocean associated with cooling and increased density, which is likely responsible for the transition of AMOC variability from strong ~20-yr oscillations to a weaker red noise–like multidecadal variability.
    Description: Support from the NOAA Climate Program Office (Grant NA10OAR4310202 and NA13OAR4310139) and NSF EaSM2 (OCE1242989) is gratefully acknowledged.
    Description: 2015-06-15
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation ; Thermocline circulation ; Climate variability ; Multidecadal variability
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 8981–9005, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00565.1.
    Description: Version 1 of the Community Earth System Model, in the configuration where its full carbon cycle is enabled, is introduced and documented. In this configuration, the terrestrial biogeochemical model, which includes carbon–nitrogen dynamics and is present in earlier model versions, is coupled to an ocean biogeochemical model and atmospheric CO2 tracers. The authors provide a description of the model, detail how preindustrial-control and twentieth-century experiments were initialized and forced, and examine the behavior of the carbon cycle in those experiments. They examine how sea- and land-to-air CO2 fluxes contribute to the increase of atmospheric CO2 in the twentieth century, analyze how atmospheric CO2 and its surface fluxes vary on interannual time scales, including how they respond to ENSO, and describe the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 and its surface fluxes. While the model broadly reproduces observed aspects of the carbon cycle, there are several notable biases, including having too large of an increase in atmospheric CO2 over the twentieth century and too small of a seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 in the Northern Hemisphere. The biases are related to a weak response of the carbon cycle to climatic variations on interannual and seasonal time scales and to twentieth-century anthropogenic forcings, including rising CO2, land-use change, and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen.
    Description: The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Computing resources were provided by the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), sponsored by the National Science Foundation and other agencies. This research was enabled by CISL compute and storage resources. SCD acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (NSF AGS-1048827). This research is supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by UT-BATTELLE for DOE under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.
    Description: 2015-06-15
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Climate models ; Coupled models ; Model evaluation/performance
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 294–312, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0104.1.
    Description: Model analyses of an alongshelf flow over a continental shelf and slope reveal upwelling near the shelf break. A stratified, initially uniform, alongshelf flow undergoes a rapid adjustment with notable differences onshore and offshore of the shelf break. Over the shelf, a bottom boundary layer and an offshore bottom Ekman transport develop within an inertial period. Over the slope, the bottom offshore transport is reduced from the shelf’s bottom transport by two processes. First, advection of buoyancy downslope induces vertical mixing, destratifying, and thickening the bottom boundary layer. The downward-tilting isopycnals reduce the geostrophic speed near the bottom. The reduced bottom stress weakens the offshore Ekman transport, a process known as buoyancy shutdown of the Ekman transport. Second, the thickening bottom boundary layer and weakening near-bottom speeds are balanced by an upslope ageostrophic transport. The convergence in the bottom transport induces adiabatic upwelling offshore of the shelf break. For a time period after the initial adjustment, scalings are identified for the upwelling speed and the length scale over which it occurs. Numerical experiments are used to test the scalings for a range of initial speeds and stratifications. Upwelling occurs within an inertial period, reaching values of up to 10 m day−1 within 2 to 7 km offshore of the shelf break. Upwelling drives an interior secondary circulation that accelerates the alongshelf flow over the slope, forming a shelfbreak jet. The model results are compared with upwelling estimates from other models and observations near the Middle Atlantic Bight shelf break.
    Description: J. Benthuysen acknowledges support from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CE110001028) and the MIT/WHOI Joint Program, where this work was initiated.
    Description: 2015-07-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Boundary currents ; Diapycnal mixing ; Ekman pumping/transport ; Mixing ; Topographic effects ; Upwelling/downwelling
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 104–132, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0032.1.
    Description: Three mechanisms for self-induced Ekman pumping in the interiors of mesoscale ocean eddies are investigated. The first arises from the surface stress that occurs because of differences between surface wind and ocean velocities, resulting in Ekman upwelling and downwelling in the cores of anticyclones and cyclones, respectively. The second mechanism arises from the interaction of the surface stress with the surface current vorticity gradient, resulting in dipoles of Ekman upwelling and downwelling. The third mechanism arises from eddy-induced spatial variability of sea surface temperature (SST), which generates a curl of the stress and therefore Ekman pumping in regions of crosswind SST gradients. The spatial structures and relative magnitudes of the three contributions to eddy-induced Ekman pumping are investigated by collocating satellite-based measurements of SST, geostrophic velocity, and surface winds to the interiors of eddies identified from their sea surface height signatures. On average, eddy-induced Ekman pumping velocities approach O(10) cm day−1. SST-induced Ekman pumping is usually secondary to the two current-induced mechanisms for Ekman pumping. Notable exceptions are the midlatitude extensions of western boundary currents and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, where SST gradients are strong and all three mechanisms for eddy-induced Ekman pumping are comparable in magnitude. Because the polarity of current-induced curl of the surface stress opposes that of the eddy, the associated Ekman pumping attenuates the eddies. The decay time scale of this attenuation is proportional to the vertical scale of the eddy and inversely proportional to the wind speed. For typical values of these parameters, the decay time scale is about 1.3 yr.
    Description: This work was funded by NASA Grants NNX08AI80G, NNX08AR37G, NNX13AD78G, NNX10AE91G, NNX13AE47G, and NNX10AO98G.
    Description: 2015-07-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Eddies ; Ekman pumping/transport ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Eddies ; Ekman pumping ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Satellite observations
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 139-166, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 477-507, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 167-205, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2015-06-02
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 207-231, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 431-458, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 459-476, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 541-569, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 233-271, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 29-77, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 105-138, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 1-27, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 273-298, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 405-429, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 593-622, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 299-331, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 333-361, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 571-592, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2015-06-03
    Description: Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences Volume 43, Page 509-540, May 2015, ISSN 0084-6597, eISSN 1545-4495.
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2015-12-30
    Description: While much attention has been given to investigating the dynamics of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG), little work explores the thermodynamical evolution and related cloud microphysical processes occurring during TCG. This study elaborates on previous research by examining the impact of ice microphysics on the genesis of Hurricane Julia during the 2010 North Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. As compared with a control simulation, two sensitivity experiments are conducted in which the latent heat of fusion owing to depositional growth is removed in one experiment and homogeneous freezing is not allowed to occur in the other. Results show that removing the latent heat of fusion substantially reduces the warming of the upper troposphere during TCG. This results in a lack of meso-α-scale hydrostatic surface pressure falls and no tropical depression (TD)-scale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) disturbance. In contrast, removing homogeneous freezing has little impact on the structure and magnitude of the upper-tropospheric thermodynamic changes and MSLP disturbance. Fundamental changes to the strength and spatial extent of deep convection and related updrafts are found when removing the latent heat of fusion from depositional processes. That is, deep convection and related updrafts are weaker because of the lack of heating in the upper troposphere. These changes to convective development impact the creation of a storm-scale outflow and thus the accumulation of upper-tropospheric warming and the development of the TD-scale MSLP disturbance.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2015-12-30
    Description: A meteorological ensemble prediction system that represents uncertainties in both initial conditions and model formulations is coupled with a modified version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. This coupled dispersion ensemble prediction system (DEPS) is used to generate a 24-member ensemble forecast of the dispersion of the volcanic ash cloud produced by the 13 February 2014 eruption of Kelut, Indonesia. Uncertainties in the volcanic ash source are not represented. For predictions up to 12 h from the start of the eruption, forecasts from the deterministic control member and from the DEPS both show very good qualitative agreement with satellite observations. By 18–24 h the DEPS forecast shows better qualitative agreement with observations than does the deterministic forecast. Although composited fields such as the ensemble mean and probability present information concisely, experiments here show that it is very important to also consider results from individual member forecasts in order to identify features that may be underrepresented. For example, an area of relatively high ash concentration that was forecast by most of the members was not particularly evident in the composited fields because the location of this feature was highly variable between member forecasts. To fully understand a DEPS forecast, it is necessary to consider both atmospheric column load and concentration fields, individual member forecasts, and a range of thresholds in computing and interpreting probabilities.
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2015-12-30
    Description: Precipitation plays a major role in the energy and water cycles of the earth. Because of its variable nature, consistent observations of global precipitation are challenging. Satellite-based precipitation datasets present an alternative to in situ–based datasets in areas sparsely covered by ground stations. These datasets are a unique tool for model evaluations, but the value of satellite-based precipitation datasets depends on their application and scale. Numerous validation studies considered monthly or daily time scales, while less attention is given to subdaily scales. In this study subdaily satellite-based rainfall data are analyzed in West Africa, a region with strong diurnal variability. Several satellite-based precipitation datasets are validated, including Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), TRMM 3G68 products, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) data. As a reference, highly resolved in situ data from the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis–Couplage de l’Atmosphere Tropical et du Cycle Hydrologique (AMMA-CATCH) are used. As a result, overall the satellite products capture the diurnal cycles of precipitation and its variability as observed on the ground reasonably well. CMORPH and TMPA data show overall good results. For locally induced convective rainfall in the evening most satellite data show slight delays in peak precipitation of up to 2 h.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2015-12-30
    Description: In this study, the three-dimensional structures and diurnal evolution of a typical low-level jet (LLJ) with a maximum speed of 24 m s−1 occurring in the 850–800-hPa layer are examined using both large-scale analysis and a high-resolution model simulation. The LLJ occurred on the eastern foothills of the Yun-Gui Plateau in south China from 1400 LST 29 June to 1400 LST 30 June 2003. The effects of surface radiative heating, topography, and latent heat release on the development of the LLJ case are also studied. Results show that a western Pacific Ocean subtropical high and a low pressure system on the respective southeast and northwest sides of the LLJ provide a favorable large-scale mean pressure pattern for the LLJ development. The LLJ reaches its peak intensity at 850 hPa near 0200 LST with wind directions veering from southerly before sunset to southwesterly at midnight. A hodograph at the LLJ core shows a complete diurnal cycle of the horizontal wind with a radius of 5.5 m s−1. It is found that in an LLJ coordinates system the along-LLJ geostrophic component regulates the distribution and 65% of the intensity of LLJ, whereas the ageostrophic component contributes to the clockwise rotation, thus leading to the formation and weakening of the LLJ during night- and daytime, respectively. Numerical sensitivity experiments confirm the surface radiative heating as the key factor in determining the formation of the nocturnal LLJ. The existence of the Yun-Gui Plateau, and the downstream condensational heating along the mei-yu front play secondary roles in the LLJ formation.
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2015-12-30
    Description: This work describes some of the most extensive ground-based observations of the aerosol profile collected in Southeast Asia to date, highlighting the challenges in simulating these observations with a mesoscale perspective. An 84-h WRF Model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) mesoscale simulation of smoke particle transport at Kuching, Malaysia, in the southern Maritime Continent of Southeast Asia is evaluated relative to a unique collection of continuous ground-based lidar, sun photometer, and 4-h radiosonde profiling. The period was marked by relatively dry conditions, allowing smoke layers transported to the site unperturbed by wet deposition to be common regionally. The model depiction is reasonable overall. Core thermodynamics, including land/sea-breeze structure, are well resolved. Total model smoke extinction and, by proxy, mass concentration are low relative to observation. Smoke emissions source products are likely low because of undersampling of fires in infrared sun-synchronous satellite products, which is exacerbated regionally by endemic low-level cloud cover. Differences are identified between the model mass profile and the lidar profile, particularly during periods of afternoon convective mixing. A static smoke mass injection height parameterized for this study potentially influences this result. The model does not resolve the convective mixing of aerosol particles into the lower free troposphere or the enhancement of near-surface extinction from nighttime cooling and hygroscopic effects.
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2015-03-01
    Description: Layout studies are critical in designing large wind farms, since wake effects can lead to significant reductions in power generation. Optimizing wind farm layout using computational fluid dynamics is practically unfeasible today because of their enormous computational requirements. Simple statistical models, based on geometric quantities associated with the wind farm layout, are therefore attractive because they are less demanding computationally. Results of large-eddy simulations of the Lillgrund (Sweden) offshore wind farm are used here to calibrate such geometry-based models. Several geometric quantities (e.g., blockage ratio, defined as the fraction of the swept area of a wind turbine that is blocked by upstream turbines) and their linear combinations are found to correlate very well (correlation coefficient of ~0.95) with the power generated by the turbines. Linear models based on these geometric quantities are accurate at predicting the farm-averaged power and are therefore used here to study layout effects in large wind farms. The layout parameters that are considered include angle between rows and columns, angle between incoming wind and columns (orientation), turbine spacings, and staggering of alternate rows. Each can impact wind power production positively or negatively, and their interplay is complex. The orientation angle is the most critical parameter influencing wake losses, as small changes in it can cause sharp variations in power. In general, for a prevailing wind direction, the orientation angle should be small (7.5°–20°) but not zero; staggering and spacing are beneficial; and nonorthogonal layouts may outperform orthogonal ones. This study demonstrates the utility of simple, inexpensive, and reasonably accurate geometry-based models to identify general principles governing optimal wind farm layout.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2015-12-29
    Description: This study explores the performance of Environment Canada’s Surface Prediction System (SPS) in comparison to in situ observations from the Brightwater Creek soil moisture observation network with respect to soil moisture and soil temperature. To do so, SPS is run at hyperresolution (100 m) over a small domain in southern Saskatchewan (Canada) during the summer of 2014. It is shown that with initial conditions and surface condition forcings based on observations, SPS can simulate soil moisture and soil temperature evolution over time with high accuracy (mean bias of 0.01 m3 m−3 and −0.52°C, respectively). However, the modeled spatial variability is generally much weaker than observed. This is likely related to the model’s use of uniform soil texture, the lack of small-scale orography, as well as a predefined crop growth cycle in SPS. Nonetheless, the spatial averages of simulated soil conditions over the domain are very similar to those observed, suggesting that both are representative of large-scale conditions. Thus, in the context of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) project, this study shows that both simulated and in situ observations can be upscaled to allow future comparison with upcoming satellite data.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: Man-made reservoirs play a key role in the terrestrial water system. They alter water fluxes at the land surface and impact surface water storage through water management regulations for diverse purposes such as irrigation, municipal water supply, hydropower generation, and flood control. Although most developed countries have established sophisticated observing systems for many variables in the land surface water cycle, long-term and consistent records of reservoir storage are much more limited and not always shared. Furthermore, most land surface hydrological models do not represent the effects of water management activities. Here, the contribution of reservoirs to seasonal water storage variations is investigated using a large-scale water management model to simulate the effects of reservoir management at basin and continental scales. The model was run from 1948 to 2010 at a spatial resolution of 0.25° latitude–longitude. A total of 166 of the largest reservoirs in the world with a total capacity of about 3900 km3 (nearly 60% of the globally integrated reservoir capacity) were simulated. The global reservoir storage time series reflects the massive expansion of global reservoir capacity; over 30 000 reservoirs have been constructed during the past half century, with a mean absolute interannual storage variation of 89 km3. The results indicate that the average reservoir-induced seasonal storage variation is nearly 700 km3 or about 10% of the global reservoir storage. For some river basins, such as the Yellow River, seasonal reservoir storage variations can be as large as 72% of combined snow water equivalent and soil moisture storage.
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: This study investigates the features of atmospheric circulation and moisture transport associated with two modes of decadal variability in the North Pacific: the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), with emphasis on the multiscale water vapor transport and atmospheric river (AR) over the North Pacific region. During the positive phase of PDO, the geopotential height anomaly at 500-hPa exhibits a Pacific–North American-like pattern. During the positive phase of NPGO, the geopotential height anomaly at 500 hPa features a dipole pattern with a negative anomaly north of 40°N and a positive anomaly south of 40°N over the North Pacific. Associated with the positive PDO phase, the ocean-to-land moisture transport is enhanced between 25° and 35°N and reduced over the northeastern Pacific (25°–62°N, 180°–110°W) for the time-mean integrated vapor transport (IVT). The synoptic poleward transport is suppressed north of 40°N and enhanced south of 40°N. In the positive NPGO phase, the zonal moisture transport is intensified south of 20°N and between 40° and 50°N for the time-mean IVT and weakened over the west coast of North America for the low-frequency (10–100 days) IVT. The synoptic poleward transport is suppressed south of 30°N. The eastern part of the North Pacific AR belt moves southward during positive PDO as the entire North Pacific AR belt shifts slightly northward during positive NPGO. An investigation of AR anomalies during a period over which the PDO and NPGO coexist demonstrates that the AR frequency over the North American western coastal regions is significantly influenced by the conjunction of the PDO and NPGO modes.
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: Precipitation and soil moisture are rigorously measured or estimated from a variety of sources. Here, 22 precipitation and 23 soil moisture products are evaluated against long-term daily observed precipitation (Pobs) and July–September daily observationally constrained soil moisture (SM) datasets over a densely monitored 150 km2 watershed in southeastern Arizona, United States. Gauge–radar precipitation products perform best, followed by reanalysis and satellite products, and the median correlations of annual precipitation from these three categories with Pobs are 0.83, 0.68, and 0.46, respectively. Precipitation results from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are the worst, including an overestimate of cold season precipitation and a lack of significant correlation of annual precipitation with Pobs from all (except one) models. Satellite soil moisture products perform best, followed by land data assimilation systems and reanalyses, and the CMIP5 results are the worst. For instance, the median unbiased root-mean-square difference (RMSD) values of July–September soil moisture compared with SM are 0.0070, 0.011, 0.014, and 0.029 m3 m−3 for these four product categories, respectively. All 17 (except 3) precipitation [17 (except 2) soil moisture] products with at least 20 years of data agree with Pobs (SM) without significant trends. The uncertainties associated with the scale mismatch between Pobs and coarser-resolution products are addressed using two 4-km gauge–radar precipitation products, and their impact on the results presented in this study is overall small. These results identify strengths and weaknesses of each product for future improvement; they also emphasize the importance of using multiple gauge–radar and satellite products along with their uncertainties in evaluating reanalyses and models.
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2015-12-29
    Description: Observations of daily surface solar or shortwave radiation data from over 4000 stations have been gathered, covering much of the continental United States as well as portions of Alberta and British Columbia, Canada. The quantity of data increases almost linearly from 1998, when only several hundred stations had data. A quality-control procedure utilizing threshold values along with computing the clear-sky radiation envelope for individual stations was implemented to both screen bad data and rescue informative data. Over two-thirds of the observations are seen as acceptable. There are 15 different surface solar radiation products assessed relative to observations, including reanalyses [Twentieth-Century Reanalysis (20CR), CFS Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR), ERA-Interim, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-55), MERRA, NARR, and NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis 1 (NCEP-1)], derived products [observations from the CRU and NCEP-1 (CRU–NCEP); Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet); Global Land Data Assimilation System, version 1 (GLDAS-1); Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3); Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP); and phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2)], and two satellite products (CERES and GOES). All except the CERES product have daily or finer temporal resolution. The RMSE of spatial biases is greater than 18 W m−2 for 13 of the 15 products over the summer season (June–August). None of the daily resolution products fulfill all three desirable criteria of low (
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2015-12-17
    Description: This paper evaluates the simulation of snow by the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4), the land model component of the Community Earth System Model, version 1.0.4 (CESM1.0.4). CLM4 was run in an offline mode forced with the corrected land-only replay of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-Land) and the output was evaluated for the period from January 2001 to January 2011 over the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 30°N. Simulated snow-cover fraction (SCF), snow depth, and snow water equivalent (SWE) were compared against a set of observations including the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SCF, the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) snow cover, the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) daily snow analysis products, snow depth from the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer (COOP) program, and Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) SWE observations. CLM4 SCF was converted into snow-cover extent (SCE) to compare with MODIS SCE. It showed good agreement, with a correlation coefficient of 0.91 and an average bias of −1.54 × 102 km2. Overall, CLM4 agreed well with IMS snow cover, with the percentage of correctly modeled snow–no snow being 94%. CLM4 snow depth and SWE agreed reasonably well with the CMC product, with the average bias (RMSE) of snow depth and SWE being 0.044 m (0.19 m) and −0.010 m (0.04 m), respectively. CLM4 underestimated SNOTEL SWE and COOP snow depth. This study demonstrates the need to improve the CLM4 snow estimates and constitutes a benchmark against which improvement of the model through data assimilation can be measured.
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2015-12-17
    Description: The goal of this study is to quantitatively intercompare the standard products of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and its successor, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), with a dense gauge network over the midlatitude Ganjiang River basin in southeast China. In general, direct comparisons of the TMPA 3B42V7, 3B42RT, and GPM Day-1 IMERG estimates with gauge observations over an extended period of the rainy season (from May through September 2014) at 0.25° and daily resolutions show that all three products demonstrate similarly acceptable (~0.63) and high (0.87) correlation at grid and basin scales, respectively, although 3B42RT shows much higher overestimation. Both of the post-real-time corrections effectively reduce the bias of Day-1 IMERG and 3B42V7 to single digits of underestimation from 20+% overestimation of 3B42RT. The Taylor diagram shows that Day-1 IMERG and 3B42V7 are comparable at grid and basin scales. Hydrologic assessment with the Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST) hydrologic model indicates that the Day-1 IMERG product performs comparably to gauge reference data. In many cases, the IMERG product outperforms TMPA standard products, suggesting a promising prospect of hydrologic utility and a desirable hydrologic continuity from TRMM-era product heritages to GPM-era IMERG products. Overall, this early study highlights that the Day-1 IMERG product can adequately substitute TMPA products both statistically and hydrologically, even with its limited data availability to date, in this well-gauged midlatitude basin. As more IMERG data are released, more studies to explore the potential of GPM-era IMERG in water, weather, and climate research are urgently needed.
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2015-12-31
    Description: Precipitation displays a remarkable variability in space and time. An important yet poorly documented aspect of this variability is intermittency. In this paper, a new way of quantifying intermittency based on the burstiness B and memory M of interamount times is proposed. The method is applied to a unique dataset of 325 high-resolution rain gauges in the United States and Europe. Results show that the M–B diagram provides useful insight into local precipitation patterns and can be used to study intermittency over a wide range of temporal scales. It is found that precipitation tends to be more intermittent in warm and dry climates with the largest observed values in the southwest of the United States (i.e., California, Nevada, Arizona, and Texas). Low-to-moderate values are reported for the northeastern United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Germany. In the second half of the paper, the new metrics are applied to daily rainfall data for 1954–2013 to investigate regional trends in intermittency due to climate variability and global warming. No evidence is found of a global shift in intermittency but a weak trend toward burstier precipitation patterns and longer dry spells in the south of Europe (i.e., Portugal, Spain, and Italy) and an opposite trend toward steadier and more correlated precipitation patterns in Norway, Sweden, and Finland is observed.
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: Accurately predicting regional-scale water fluxes and states remains a challenging task in contemporary hydrology. Coping with this grand challenge requires, among other things, a model that makes reliable predictions across scales, locations, and variables other than those used for parameter estimation. In this study, the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) parameterized with the multiscale regionalization technique is comprehensively tested across 400 European river basins. The model fluxes and states, constrained using the observed streamflow, are evaluated against gridded evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and total water storage anomalies, as well as local-scale eddy covariance observations. This multiscale verification is carried out in a seamless manner at the native resolutions of available datasets, varying from 0.5 to 100 km. Results of cross-validation tests show that mHM is able to capture the streamflow dynamics adequately well across a wide range of climate and physiographical characteristics. The model yields generally better results (with lower spread of model statistics) in basins with higher rain gauge density. Model performance for other fluxes and states is strongly driven by the degree of seasonality that each variable exhibits, with the best match being observed for evapotranspiration, followed by total water storage anomaly, and the least for soil moisture. Results show that constraining the model against streamflow only may be necessary but not sufficient to warrant the model fidelity for other complementary variables. The study emphasizes the need to account for other complementary datasets besides streamflow during parameter estimation to improve model skill with respect to “hidden” variables.
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a major role in causing extreme precipitation and flooding over the central United States (e.g., Midwest floods of 1993 and 2008). The goal of this study is to characterize rainfall associated with ARs over this region during the Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign that took place in April–June 2013. Total precipitation during IFloodS was among the five largest accumulations recorded since the mid-twentieth century over most of this region, with three of the heavy rainfall events associated with ARs. As a preliminary step, the authors evaluate how well different remote sensing–based precipitation products captured the rainfall associated with the ARs and find that stage IV is the product that shows the closest agreement to the reference data. Two of the three ARs during IFloodS occurred within extratropical cyclones, with the moist ascent associated with the presence of cold fronts. In the third AR, mesoscale convective systems resulted in intense rainfall at many locations. In all the three cases, the continued supply of warm water vapor from the tropics and subtropics helped sustain the convective systems. Most of the rainfall during these ARs was concentrated within ~100 km of the AR major axis, and this is the region where the rainfall amounts were highly positively correlated with the vapor transport intensity. Rainfall associated with ARs tends to be larger as these events mature over time. Although no major diurnal variation is detected in the AR occurrences, rainfall amounts during nocturnal ARs were higher than for ARs that occurred during the daytime.
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2015-12-29
    Description: The estimation of precipitation across the globe from satellite sensors provides a key resource in the observation and understanding of our climate system. Estimates from all pertinent satellite observations are critical in providing the necessary temporal sampling. However, consistency in these estimates from instruments with different frequencies and resolutions is critical. This paper details the physically based retrieval scheme to estimate precipitation from cross-track (XT) passive microwave (PM) sensors on board the constellation satellites of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Here the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF), a physically based Bayesian scheme developed for conically scanning (CS) sensors, is adapted for use with XT PM sensors. The present XT GPROF scheme utilizes a model-generated database to overcome issues encountered with an observational database as used by the CS scheme. The model database ensures greater consistency across meteorological regimes and surface types by providing a more comprehensive set of precipitation profiles. The database is corrected for bias against the CS database to ensure consistency in the final product. Statistical comparisons over western Europe and the United States show that the XT GPROF estimates are comparable with those from the CS scheme. Indeed, the XT estimates have higher correlations against surface radar data, while maintaining similar root-mean-square errors. Latitudinal profiles of precipitation show the XT estimates are generally comparable with the CS estimates, although in the southern midlatitudes the peak precipitation is shifted equatorward while over the Arctic large differences are seen between the XT and the CS retrievals.
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2015-12-31
    Description: The future changes in drought characteristics were examined on a regional scale for South Korea, in northeastern Asia, using 17 bias-corrected projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. The frequency of severe or extreme drought, based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), with time scales of 1, 3, and 12 months (i.e., SPI1, SPI3, SPI12, SPEI1, SPEI3, and SPEI12), was considered, as well as the average duration based on SPEI1. A multimodel ensemble (MME) was produced using selected models, and future changes were investigated in terms of both drought frequency and the average duration for the entire area and four river basins. The changes in drought frequency largely depend on the selection of a drought index, rather than climate projection scenarios. SPEI3 mostly projected future increases in drought frequency, while SPI3 showed varied projections. SPI12 projected decreases in drought frequency for both scenarios in the study area, while differences between river basins were observed for SPEI12. Increases in the average duration of droughts were projected based on SPEI1, indicating an increase in persistent short-term droughts in the future. The results emphasize the importance of regional- and subregional-scale analysis in northeastern Asia. The findings of the study provide valuable information that can be used for drought-related decision-making, which could not be obtained from studies on a global spatial scale.
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2015-12-17
    Description: The stable isotopic composition of water in ice cores is an important source of information on past climate variability. At its simplest level, the underlying assumption is that there is an empirical relationship between the normalized difference in the concentration for these stable isotopes and a specified local temperature at the ice core site. There are, however, nonlocal processes, such as a change in source region or a change in the atmospheric pathway, which can impact the stable isotope signal, thereby complicating its use as a proxy for temperature. In this paper, the importance of these nonlocal processes are investigated through the analysis of the synoptic-scale circulation during a snowfall event at the summit of Mount Wrangell (62°N, 144°W; 4300 m MSL) in south-central Alaska. During this event there was, over a 1-day period in which the local temperature was approximately constant, a change in δ18O that exceeded half that normally seen to occur in the region between summer and winter. As shall be shown, this arose from a change in the source region, from the subtropical eastern Pacific to northeastern Asia, for the snow that fell on Mount Wrangell during the event.
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: Classification of streamflow hydrographs plays an important role in a large number of hydrological and hydraulic studies. For instance, it allows decisions to be made regarding the implementation of hydraulic structures and characterization of different flood types, leading to a better understanding of extreme flow behavior. The employed hydrograph classification methods are generally based on a finite number of hydrograph characteristics and do not include all the available information contained in a discharge time series. In this paper, two statistical techniques from the theory of functional data classification are adapted and applied for the analysis of flood hydrographs. Functional classification directly employs all data of a discharge time series and thus contains all available information on shape, peak, and timing. This potentially allows a better understanding and treatment of floods as well as other hydrological phenomena. The considered functional methodology is applied to streamflow datasets from the province of Quebec, Canada. It is shown that classes obtained using functional approaches have merit and can lead to better representation than those obtained using a multidimensional hierarchical classification method. The considered methodology has the advantage of using all of the information contained in the hydrograph, thus reducing the subjectivity that is inherent in multidimensional analysis of the type and number of characteristics to be used and consequently diminishing the associated uncertainty.
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2015-12-17
    Description: Physically based models facilitate understanding of seasonal snow processes but require meteorological forcing data beyond air temperature and precipitation (e.g., wind, humidity, shortwave radiation, and longwave radiation) that are typically unavailable at automatic weather stations (AWSs) and instead are often represented with empirical estimates. Research is needed to understand which forcings (after temperature and precipitation) would most benefit snow modeling through expanded observation or improved estimation techniques. Here, the impact of forcing data availability on snow model output is assessed with data-withholding experiments using 3-yr datasets at well-instrumented sites in four climates. The interplay between forcing availability and model complexity is examined among the Utah Energy Balance (UEB), the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) snow submodel, and the snow thermal model (SNTHERM). Sixty-four unique forcing scenarios were evaluated, with different assumptions regarding availability of hourly meteorological observations at each site. Modeled snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow surface temperature Tsurf diverged most often because of availability of longwave radiation, which is the least frequently measured forcing in cold regions in the western United States. Availability of longwave radiation (i.e., observed vs empirically estimated) caused maximum SWE differences up to 234 mm (57% of peak SWE), mean differences up to 6.2°C in Tsurf, and up to 32 days difference in snow disappearance timing. From a model data perspective, more common observations of longwave radiation at AWSs could benefit snow model development and applications, but other aspects (e.g., costs, site access, and maintenance) need consideration.
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: The use of windshields to reduce the impact of wind on snow measurements is common. This paper investigates the catching performance of shielded and unshielded gauges using numerical simulations. In Part II, the role of the windshield and gauge aerodynamics, as well as the varying flow field due to the turbulence generated by the shield–gauge configuration, in reducing the catch efficiency is investigated. This builds on the computational fluid dynamics results obtained in Part I, where the airflow patterns in the proximity of an unshielded and single Alter shielded Geonor T-200B gauge are obtained using both time-independent [Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS)] and time-dependent [large-eddy simulation (LES)] approaches. A Lagrangian trajectory model is used to track different types of snowflakes (wet and dry snow) and to assess the variation of the resulting gauge catching performance with the wind speed. The collection efficiency obtained with the LES approach is generally lower than the one obtained with the RANS approach. This is because of the impact of the LES-resolved turbulence above the gauge orifice rim. The comparison between the collection efficiency values obtained in case of shielded and unshielded gauge validates the choice of installing a single Alter shield in a windy environment. However, time-dependent simulations show that the propagating turbulent structures produced by the aerodynamic response of the upwind single Alter blades have an impact on the collection efficiency. Comparison with field observations provides the validation background for the model results.
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2015-12-17
    Description: Drop size distributions observed by four Particle Size Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometers during the 2013 Great Colorado Flood are used to diagnose rain characteristics during intensive rainfall episodes. The analysis focuses on 30 h of intense rainfall in the vicinity of Boulder, Colorado, from 2200 UTC 11 September to 0400 UTC 13 September 2013. Rainfall rates R, median volume diameters D0, reflectivity Z, drop size distributions (DSDs), and gamma DSD parameters were derived and compared between the foothills and adjacent plains locations. Rainfall throughout the entire event was characterized by a large number of small- to medium-sized raindrops (diameters smaller than 1.5 mm) resulting in small values of Z (
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: This study asks the question of whether GCMs are ready to be operationalized for streamflow forecasting in South Asian river basins, and if so, at what temporal scales and for which water management decisions are they likely to be relevant? The authors focused on the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna basins for which there is a gridded hydrologic model calibrated for the 2002–10 period. The North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) suite of eight GCM hindcasts was applied to generate precipitation forecasts for each month of the 1982–2012 (30 year) period at up to 6 months of lead time, which were then downscaled according to the bias-corrected statistical downscaling (BCSD) procedure to daily time steps. A global retrospective forcing dataset was used for this downscaling procedure. The study clearly revealed that a regionally consistent forcing for BCSD, which is currently unavailable for the region, is one of the primary conditions to realize reasonable skill in streamflow forecasting. In terms of relative RMSE (normalized by reference flow obtained from the global retrospective forcings used in downscaling), streamflow forecast uncertainty (RMSE) was found to be 38%–50% at monthly scale and 22%–35% at seasonal (3 monthly) scale. The Ganges River (regulated) experienced higher uncertainty than the Brahmaputra River (unregulated). In terms of anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), the streamflow forecasting at seasonal (3 monthly) scale was found to have less uncertainty (〉0.3) than at monthly scale (
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2015-12-29
    Description: The contribution of extreme convective storms to rainfall in South America is investigated using 15 years of high-resolution data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR). Precipitation from three specific types of storms with extreme horizontal and vertical dimensions have been calculated and compared to the climatological rain. The tropical and subtropical regions of South America differ markedly in the influence of storms with extreme dimensions. The tropical regions, especially the Amazon basin, have aspects similar to oceanic convection. Convection in the subtropical regions, centered on La Plata basin, exhibits patterns consistent with storm life cycles initiating in the foothills of the Andes and growing into larger mesoscale convective systems that propagate to the east. In La Plata basin, convective storms with a large horizontal dimension contribute ~44% of the rain and the accumulated influence of all three types of storms with extreme characteristics produce ~95% of the total precipitation in the austral summer.
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2015-12-17
    Description: Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2015-12-17
    Description: Radar and disdrometer observations collected during the 2013 Great Colorado Flood are used to diagnose the spatial and vertical structure of clouds and precipitation during episodes of intense rainfall. The analysis focuses on 30 h of intense rainfall in the vicinity of Boulder, Colorado, during 2200–0400 UTC 11–13 September. The strongest rainfall occurred along lower parts of the Colorado Front Range at 〉1.6 km MSL and on the northern side of the Palmer Divide. The vertical structure of clouds and horizontal distribution of rainfall are strongly linked to upslope flow and low-level forcing, which resulted in surface convergence. During times of weak forcing, shallow convection produced rain at and below the melting layer through collision–coalescence and, to a lesser extent, riming. A mesoscale circulation interacting with the local terrain produced convective rainfall with high cloud tops that favored ice crystal production. During moderate forcing with cloud tops slightly exceeding the 0°C level, both cold- and warm-phase microphysical processes dominated. Less rain with weaker rainfall rates was observed over the higher-elevation stations compared to the lower-elevation stations across the foothills.
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2015-12-29
    Description: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are often associated with extreme precipitation, which can lead to flooding or alleviate droughts. A decade (2003–12) of landfalling ARs impacting the North American west coast (between 32.5° and 52.5°N) is collected to assess the skill of five commonly used satellite-based precipitation products [T3B42, T3B42 real-time (T3B42RT), CPC morphing technique (CMORPH), PERSIANN, and PERSIANN–Cloud Classification System (CCS)] in capturing ARs’ precipitation rate and pattern. AR detection was carried out using a database containing twice-daily satellite-based integrated water vapor composite observations. It was found that satellite products are more consistent over ocean than land and often significantly underestimate precipitation rate over land compared to ground observations. Incorrect detection of precipitation from IR-based methods is prevalent over snow and ice surfaces where microwave estimates often show underestimation or missing data. Bias adjustment using ground observation is found very effective to improve satellite products, but it also raises concern regarding near-real-time applicability of satellite products for ARs. The analysis using individual case studies (6–8 January and 13–14 October 2009) and an ensemble of AR events suggests that further advancement in capturing orographic precipitation and precipitation over cold and frozen surfaces is needed to more reliably quantify AR precipitation from space.
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: The aerodynamic response of snow gauges when exposed to the wind is responsible for a significant reduction of their collection performance. The modifications induced by the gauge and the windshield onto the space–time patterns of the undisturbed airflow deviate the snowflake trajectories. In Part I, the disturbed air velocity field in the vicinity of shielded and unshielded gauge configurations is investigated. In Part II, the airflow is the basis for a particle tracking model of snowflake trajectories to estimate the collection efficiency. A Geonor T-200B gauge inside a single Alter shield is simulated for wind speeds varying from 1 to 8 m s−1. Both time-averaged and time-dependent computational fluid dynamics simulations are performed, based on Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) and large-eddy simulation (LES) models, respectively. A shear stress tensor k–Ω model (where k is the turbulent kinetic energy and Ω is the turbulent specific dissipation rate) is used for the RANS formulation and solved within a finite-volume method. The LES is implemented with a Smagorinsky subgrid-scale method that models the subgrid stresses as a gradient-diffusion process. The RANS simulations confirm the attenuation of the airflow velocity above the gauge when using a single Alter shield, but the generated turbulence above the orifice rim is underestimated. The intensity and spatial extension of the LES-resolved turbulent region show a dependency on the wind speed that was not detected by the RANS. The time-dependent analysis showed the propagation of turbulent structures and the impact on the turbulent kinetic energy above the gauge collecting section.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2015-12-21
    Description: This study presents a numerical analysis of the impact of the horizontal resolution on the forecast capability of the Canadian offline land surface prediction system (SPS; formerly known as GEM-Surf) forced by the 15-km Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model. This system is used to quantify on a statistical basis the subgrid-scale variability of (near-)surface variables for 25-km grid spacing based on the 2.5- or 10-km SPS run at regional scale over the 2012 summer season. The model bias and the distributions characterizing the subgrid-scale variability drastically depend on the geographic areas as well as on the diurnal cycle. These results show the benefits of high-resolution land surface simulations to account for length scales that are more consistent with the scales at which the actual land surface balance is affected by the heterogeneous geophysical fields (i.e., roughness length, land–water mask, glacier mask, and soil texture). The model bias results highlight the potential of an SPS–GEM two-way coupling strategy for refining predictions near the surface through the upscaling of high-resolution surface heat fluxes to the coarser atmospheric grid spacing, with these fluxes being significantly different from those explicitly resolved at 25 km and featuring nonlinear behavior with respect to the horizontal resolution. Since the computational power of meteorological operational centers progressively increases, making it possible to run high-resolution limited-area models, solving the surface at high resolution in a surface–atmosphere fully coupled system becomes a key aspect for improving numerical weather and environmental forecast performance.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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