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  • Articles  (4,623)
  • Springer  (4,623)
  • American Chemical Society
  • 1995-1999  (4,623)
  • 1997  (4,623)
  • Geosciences  (4,623)
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  • Articles  (4,623)
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  • 1995-1999  (4,623)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 17-31 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Bivariate density ; meta-Gaussian density ; normal quantile transform ; likelihood ratio dependence ; correlation coefficient
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Convenient bivariate densities found in the literature are often unsuitable for modeling hydrologic variates. They either constrain the range of association between variates, or fix the form of the marginal distributions. The bivariate meta-Gaussian density is constructed by embedding the normal quantile transform of each variate into the Gaussian law. The density can represent a full range of association between variates and admits arbitrarily specified marginal distributions. Modeling and estimation can be decomposed into i) independent analyses of the marginal distributions, and ii) investigation of the dependence structure. Both statistical and judgmental estimation procedures are possible. Some comparisons to recent applications of bivariate densities in the hydrologic literature motivate and illustrate the model.
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  • 2
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 33-50 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Unit hydrograph ; uncertainty analysis ; linearly constrained Monte-Carlo simulation ; reliability analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Unit hydrographs (UHs), along with design rainfalls, are frequently used to determine the discharge hydrograph for design and evaluation of hydraulic structures. Due to the presence of various uncertainties in its derivation, the resulting UH is inevitably subject to uncertainty. Consequently, the performance of hydraulic structures under the design storm condition is uncertain. This paper integrates the linearly constrained Monte-Carlo simulation with the UH theory and routing techniques to evaluate the reliability of hydraulic structures. The linear constraint is considered because the water volume of each generated design direct runoff hydrograph should be equal to that of the design effective rainfall hyetograph or the water volume of each generated UH must be equal to one inch (or cm) over the watershed. For illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to evaluate the overtopping risk of a hypothetical flood detention reservoir downstream of Tong-Tou watershed in Taiwan.
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  • 3
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 1-16 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Nash cascade reservoir model ; rainfall-runoff ; EM algorithm ; filtering ; maximum likelihood estimation ; martingale estimating function
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Abstract: Linear continuous time stochastic Nash cascade conceptual models for runoff are developed. The runoff is modeled as a simple system of linear stochastic differential equations driven by white Gaussian and marked point process noises. In the case of d reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a d dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the dth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points. The dth coordinate process is not Markovian. Thus runoff is a partially observed Markov process if it is modeled using the stochastic Nash cascade model. We consider how to estimate the parameters in such models. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the complete process parameters can be carried out directly or through some form of the EM (estimation and maximization) algorithm or variation thereof, applied to the observed process data. In this research we consider a direct approximate likelihood approach and a filtering approach to an algorithm of EM type, as developed in Thompson and Kaseke (1994). These two methods are applied to some real life runoff data from a catchment in Wales, England. We also consider a special case of the martingale estimating function approach on the runoff model in the presence of rainfall. Finally, some simulations of the runoff process are given based on the estimated parameters.
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  • 4
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 173-192 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Uncertainty analysis ; unit hydrograph ; regression analysis ; probabilistic point estimation methods
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.
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  • 5
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 145-171 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrologic regionalization ; unit hydrograph ; regression analysis ; multivariate regression ; seemingly unrelated regression ; validation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Hydrologic regionalization is a useful tool that allows for the transfer of hydrological information from gaged sites to ungaged sites. This study developed regional regression equations that relate the two parameters in Nash's IUH model to the basin characteristics for 42 major watersheds in Taiwan. In the process of developing the regional equations, different regression procedures including the conventional univariate regression, multivariate regression, and seemingly unrelated regression were used. Multivariate regression and seeming unrelated regression were applied because there exists a rather strong correlation between the Nash's IUH parameters. Furthermore, a validation study was conducted to examine the predictability of regional equations derived by different regression procedures. The study indicates that hydrologic regionalization involving several dependent variables should consider their correlations in the process of establishing the regional equations. The consideration of such correlation will enhance the predictability of resulting regional equations as compared with the ones from the conventional univariate regression procedure.
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  • 6
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 193-210 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Turbulence ; sediment ; fluvial ; river ; bursting process ; statistics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Entrainment of sediment particles from channel beds into the channel flow is influenced by the characteristics of the flow turbulence which produces stochastic shear stress fluctuations at the bed. Recent studies of the structure of turbulent flow has recognized the importance of bursting processes as important mechanisms for the transfer of momentum into the laminar boundary layer. Of these processes, the sweep event has been recognized as the most important bursting event for entrainment of sediment particles as it imposes forces in the direction of the flow resulting in movement of particles by rolling, sliding and occasionally saltating. Similarly, the ejection event has been recognized as important for sediment transport since these events maintain the sediment particles in suspension. In this study, the characteristics of bursting processes and, in particular, the sweep event were investigated in a flume with a rough bed. The instantaneous velocity fluctuations of the flow were measured in two-dimensions using a small electromagnetic velocity meter and the turbulent shear stresses were determined from these velocity fluctuations. It was found that the shear stress applied to the sediment particles on the bed resulting from sweep events depends on the magnitude of the turbulent shear stress and its probability distribution. A statistical analysis of the experimental data was undertaken and it was found necessary to apply a Box-Cox transformation to transform the data into a normally distributed sample. This enabled determination of the mean shear stress, angle of action and standard error of estimate for sweep and ejection events. These instantaneous shear stresses were found to be greater than the mean flow shear stress and for the sweep event to be approximately 40 percent greater near the channel bed. Results from this analysis suggest that the critical shear stress determined from Shield's diagram is not sufficient to predict the initiation of motion due to its use of the temporal mean shear stress. It is suggested that initiation of particle motion, but not continuous motion, can occur earlier than suggested by Shield's diagram due to the higher shear stresses imposed on the particles by the stochastic shear stresses resulting from turbulence within the flow.
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  • 7
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 211-227 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was employed to derive a new method of parameter estimation for the 2-parameter generalized Pareto (GP2) distribution. Monte Carlo simulated data were used to evaluate this method and compare it with the methods of moments (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM), and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The parameter estimates yielded by POME were comparable or better within certain ranges of sample size and coefficient of variation.
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  • 8
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 523-547 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Kernel density estimators are useful building blocks for empirical statistical modeling of precipitation and other hydroclimatic variables. Data driven estimates of the marginal probability density function of these variables (which may have discrete or continuous arguments) provide a useful basis for Monte Carlo resampling and are also useful for posing and testing hypotheses (e.g bimodality) as to the frequency distributions of the variable. In this paper, some issues related to the selection and design of univariate kernel density estimators are reviewed. Some strategies for bandwidth and kernel selection are discussed in an applied context and recommendations for parameter selection are offered. This paper complements the nonparametric wet/dry spell resampling methodology presented in Lall et al. (1996).
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  • 9
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 459-482 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Karhunen-Loéve expansion ; Empirical Orthogonal Functions ; stochastic simulation ; gaussian fields ; analytical covariance functions ; eigenfunctions ; kriging
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.
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  • 10
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 51-63 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A basic problem in hydrology is computing confidence levels for the value of the T-year flood when it is obtained from a Log Pearson III distribution in terms of estimated mean, estimated standard deviation, and estimated skew. In an important paper Chowdhury and Stedinger [1991] suggest a possible formula for approximate confidence levels, involving two functions previously used by Stedinger [1983] and a third function, λ, for which asymptotic estimates are given. This formula is tested [Chowdhury and Stedinger, 1991] by means of simulations, but these simulations assume a distribution for the sample skew which is not, for a single site, the distribution which the sample skew is forced to have by the basic hypothesis which underlies all of the analysis, namely that the maximum discharges have a Log Pearson III distribution. Here we test these approximate formulas for the case of data from a single site by means of simulations in which the sample skew has the distribution which arises when sampling from a Log Pearson III distribution. The formulas are found to be accurate for zero skew but increasingly inaccurate for larger common values of skew. Work in progress indicates that a better choice of λ can improve the accuracy of the formula.
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  • 11
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 94-94 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 12
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 95-114 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Soil moisture ; time scale ; non-Gaussian ; colored-noise
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Large-scale fields of soil moisture are forced by atmospheric precipitation and radiative forcing. When these forcing factors are themselves influenced by surface and soil moisture processes, the result is a nonlinear land-atmosphere system with inherent feedback mechanisms that may strongly modulate variability in climate. Given such feedbacks, simple randomness in the forcing factors may be manifested as a complex statistical signature in the surface hydrology. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of non-Gaussian and colored-noise on the probability distribution of soil moisture resulting from the statistical-dynamical land-atmosphere interaction model of Rodriguez-Iturbe et al. (1991). Persistence of hydroclimatologic anomalies as characterized by the correlation time scale of soil moisture is discussed.
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  • 13
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 115-127 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Rainfall-runoff modeling ; transfer response ; dynamic non-linear models ; normal and gamma observational distribution ; predictive performance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The rainfall-runoff modeling is very useful for forecasting purposes. A good methodology for forecasting the future stream flow is a key requirement for designers and operators of water resources systems. A compromise between conceptual and classical time series modeling is applied to model the relationship between rainfall and runoff. The dynamic nonlinear model is composed of a probability distribution describing the observation, a link function relating its mean to the so called state parameters and a system of equations defining the evolution of these parameters. Its Bayesian nature permits to take into account subjective information, making forward intervention, defining monitoring schemes and introducing smoothing facilities. An application using the data of Fartura river's basin is reported. The assessment of the prior distribution is discussed and the predictive performance of the linear and the non-linear models is reported.
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  • 14
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 129-143 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic analysis ; perturbation methods ; unsaturated transport ; heterogeneous porous media
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Within the framework of stochastic theory and the spectral perturbation techniques, three-dimensional dispersion in partially saturated soils with a finite correlation scale of log-hydraulic conductivity is analyzed. The effects of spatial variability of the moisture distribution parameter on the asymptotic spreading behavior of a unsaturated solute plume are assessed. This is accomplished by comparing two asymptotic macrodispersivities and two variance of solute concentration, obtained for a constant moisture content and spatially varied moisture, respectively.
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  • 15
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 65-93 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Nonparametric ; Monte Carlo ; precipitation ; weather
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A nonparametric resampling technique for generating daily weather variables at a site is presented. The method samples the original data with replacement while smoothing the empirical conditional distribution function. The technique can be thought of as a smoothed conditional Bootstrap and is equivalent to simulation from a kernel density estimate of the multivariate conditional probability density function. This improves on the classical Bootstrap technique by generating values that have not occurred exactly in the original sample and by alleviating the reproduction of fine spurious details in the data. Precipitation is generated from the nonparametric wet/dry spell model as described in Lall et al. [1995]. A vector of other variables (solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average dew point temperature, and average wind speed) is then simulated by conditioning on the vector of these variables on the preceding day and the precipitation amount on the day of interest. An application of the resampling scheme with 30 years of daily weather data at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, is provided.
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  • 16
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 255-266 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract It has been observed that the field biodegradation rates for soluble hydrocarbon plumes are significantly smaller than the aerobic rates observed in the laboratory. It is believed that this difference is related to the fact that in the field oxygen and hydrocarbon must be mixed before the biodegradation reaction can occur, and that the effective degradation rate is controlled by the actual, not mean, concentrations of oxygen and hydrocarbon. In this work, we present a conceptual model of oxygen-mixing limited biodegradation, which indicates that the effective degradation rate should depend on the cross correlation between the oxygen and hydrocarbon concentration fluctuations. This is followed by a development of a rigorous, field-scale model.
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  • 17
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 229-254 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Model validation ; analysis of uncertainty ; model verification ; quality assurance ; system identification ; model calibration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The development and use of models for predicting exposures are increasingly common and are essential for many risk assessments of the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Exposure assessments conducted by the EPA to assist regulatory or policy decisions are often challenged to demonstrate their “scientific validity”. Model validation has thus inevitably become a major concern of both EPA officials and the regulated community, sufficiently so that the EPA's Risk Assessment Forum is considering guidance for model validation. The present paper seeks to codify the issues and extensive foregoing discussion of validation with special reference to the development and use of models for predicting the impact of novel chemicals on the environment. Its preparation has been part of the process in formulating a White Paper for the EPA's Risk Assessment Forum. Its subject matter has been drawn from a variety of fields, including ecosystem analysis, surface water quality management, the contamination of groundwaters from high-level nuclear waste, and the control of air quality. The philosophical and conceptual bases of model validation are reviewed, from which it is apparent that validation should be understood as a task of product (or tool) design, for which some form of protocol for quality assurance will ultimately be needed. The commonly used procedures and methods of model validation are also reviewed, including the analysis of uncertainty. Following a survey of past attempts at resolving the issue of model validation, we close by introducing the notion of a model having maximum relevance to the performance of a specific task, such as, for example, a predictive exposure assessment.
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  • 18
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 303-321 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Simulation ; hydrograph rise and recession ; rainfall process ; probability distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A model is developed for annual low flow hydrographs. Its two primary components reflect the fact that hydrologic processes during streamflow rise (function of water input) and recession (function of basin storage) are different. Durations of periods of rise (wet intervals) and recession (dry intervals) are modelled by discrete probability distributions — negative binomial for dry intervals and negative binomial or modified logarithmic series for wet intervals depending on goodness of fit. During wet intervals, the total inflow is modelled by the lognormal distribution and daily amounts are allocated according to a pattern-averaged model. During dry intervals, the flow recedes according to a deterministic-stochastic recession model. The model was applied to three Canadian basins with drainage area ranging from 2210 to 22000 km2 to generate 50 realizations of low flow hydrographs. The resulting two standard-error confidence band for the simulated probability distribution of annual minimum 7-day flows enclosed the probability distribution estimated from the observed record. A sensitivity analysis for the three basins revealed that in addition to the recession submodel, the most important submodel is that describing seasonality. The state of the basin at the beginning of the low flow period is of marginal importance and the daily distribution of input is unimportant.
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  • 19
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 267-295 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Space/time processes ; stochastic analysis ; regression model ; solute contents
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A regression model is used to study spatiotemporal distributions of solute content ion concentration data (calcium, chloride and nitrate), which provide important water contamination indicators. The model consists of three random and one deterministic components. The random space/time component is assumed to be homogeneous/stationary and to have a separable covariance. The purely spatial and the purely temporal random components are assumed to have homogenous and stationary increments, respectively. The deterministic component represents the space/time mean function. Inferences of the random components involve maximum likelihood and semi-parametric methods under some restrictions on the data configuration. Computational advantages and modelling limitations of the assumptions underlying the regression model are discussed. The regression model leads to simplifications in the space/time kriging and cokriging systems used to obtain space/time estimates at unobservable locations/instants. The application of the regression model in the study of the solute content ions was done at a global scale that covers the entire region of interest. The variability analysis focuses on the calculation of the spatial direct and cross-variograms and the evaluation of correlations between the three solute content ions. The space/time kriging system is developed in terms of the space direct and cross-variograms, and allows the separate estimation of the regression model components. Maps of these components are then obtained for each one of the three ions. Using the estimates of the purely spatial component, spatial dependencies between the ions are studied. Physical causes and consequences of the space/time variability are discussed, and comparisons are made with previous analyses of the solute content dataset.
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  • 20
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 323-330 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test ; identification of periodic component ; goodness-of-fit test for white noise ; periodogram ; residuals
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A modified version of the widely used Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test of null hypothesis is constructed, that a given time series is Gaussian white noise, against the alternative hypothesis that the time series contains an added or multiplicative deterministic-periodic component of unspecified frequency. The usual KS test is treated as a special case. The proposed test is more powerful than the ordinary K-S test in detecting extreme (low or high) hidden periodicities. Computational procedure necessary for implementation are also given.
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  • 21
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 297-302 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Perturbation ; conservative chemical ; velocity variance ; eulerian
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A recursive perturbation solution to the eulerian transport problem for a conservative solute in a random conductivity field is reported. The stochastic concentration is given to arbitrary order inσ ν, the variance of fluctuating velocity. The result gives the stochastic concentration as a perturbation to the deterministic concentration for constant mean flow. The closed form solution is easy to implement numerically via FFT.
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  • 22
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 331-348 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Under the assumption that local solute dispersion is negligible, a new general formula (in the form of a convolution integral) is found for the arbitrary k-point ensemble moment of the local concentration of a solute convected in arbitrary m spatial dimensions with general sure initial conditions. From this general formula new closed-form solutions in m=2 spatial dimensions are derived for 2-point ensemble moments of the local solute concentration for the impulse (Dirac delta) and Gaussian initial conditions. When integrated over an averaging window, these solutions lead to new closed-form expressions for the first two ensemble moments of thevolume-averaged solute concentration and to the corresponding concentration coefficients of variation (CV). Also, for the impulse (Dirac delta) solute concentration initial condition, the second ensemble moment of thesolute point concentration in two spatial dimensions and the corresponding CV are demonstrated to be unbound. For impulse initial conditions the CVs for volume-averaged concentrations axe compared with each other for a tracer from the Borden aquifer experiment. The point-concentration CV is unacceptably large in the whole domain, implying that the ensemble mean concentration is inappropriate for predicting the actual concentration values. The volume-averaged concentration CV decreases significantly with an increasing averaging volume. Since local dispersion is neglected, the new solutions should be interpreted as upper limits for the yet to be derived solutions that account for local dispersion; and so should the presented CVs for Borden tracers. The new analytical solutions may be used to test the accuracy of Monte Carlo simulations or other numerical algorithms that deal with the stochastic solute transport. They may also be used to determine the size of the averaging volume needed to make a quasi-sure statement about the solute mass contained in it.
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  • 23
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 349-368 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Data assimilation ; Kalman filter ; Square root filter
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The Kalman filter algorithm can be used for many data assimilation problems. For large systems, that arise from discretizing partial differential equations, the standard algorithm has huge computational and storage requirements. This makes direct use infeasible for many applications. In addition numerical difficulties may arise if due to finite precision computations or approximations of the error covariance the requirement that the error covariance should be positive semi-definite is violated. In this paper an approximation to the Kalman filter algorithm is suggested that solves these problems for many applications. The algorithm is based on a reduced rank approximation of the error covariance using a square root factorization. The use of the factorization ensures that the error covariance matrix remains positive semi-definite at all times, while the smaller rank reduces the number of computations and storage requirements. The number of computations and storage required depend on the problem at hand, but will typically be orders of magnitude smaller than for the full Kalman filter without significant loss of accuracy. The algorithm is applied to a model based on a linearized version of the two-dimensional shallow water equations for the prediction of tides and storm surges. For non-linear models the reduced rank square root algorithm can be extended in a similar way as the extended Kalman filter approach. Moreover, by introducing a finite difference approximation to the Reduced Rank Square Root algorithm it is possible to prevent the use of a tangent linear model for the propagation of the error covariance, which poses a large implementational effort in case an extended kalman filter is used.
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  • 24
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 369-395 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Random fields ; diagrams ; perturbation ; non-local ; effective conductivity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This work presents a stochastic diagrammatic theory for the calculation of the effective hydraulic conductivity of heterogeneous media. The theory is based on the mean-flux series expansion of a log-normal hydraulic conductivity medium in terms of diagrammatic representations and leads to certain general results for the effective hydraulic conductivity of three-dimensional media. A selective summation technique is used to improve low-order perturbation analysis by evaluating an infinite set of diagrammatic terms with a specific topological structure that dominates the perturbation series. For stochastically isotropic media the selective summation yeilds the anticipated exponential expression for the effective hydraulic conductivity. This expression is extended to stochastically anisotropic media. It is also shown that in the case of non homogeneous media the uniform effective hydraulic conductivity is replaced by a non-local tensor kernel, for which general diagrammatic expressions are obtained. The non-local kernel leads to the standard exponential behavior for the effective hydraulic conductivity at the homogeneous limit.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 483-510 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Conceptual-stochastic models ; shot noise ; streamflow simulation ; time aggregation
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 511-521 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Runoff events ; arrival times ; partial duration series ; arid areas ; Israel ; probabilistic modeling ; Pearson III distribution
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Present descriptions of arrival times of runoff events are based upon modeling of interarrival intervals. Maintaining the traditional assumption that arrival times are independent random variables, these times can be directly described through a continuous distribution fitted to recorded data. A case study for the arid Negev region in Israel indicates that the Pearson type III distribution satisfactorily achieves this goal. The direct description can apply nonuniform functions, respond to multi-modal distributions, and be extended to regional modeling.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 397-422 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Random flow field ; diffusion ; concentration ; fluctuations ; covariance ; variance
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The concentration c(x,t) of a nonreactive solute undergoing advection and diffusion in a spatially random divergence-free flow field is analyzed. A leading order formulation for the spatial covariance of the concentration field, $$\overline {c'\left( {x,t} \right)c'\left( {x,t} \right)} $$ , is made. That formulation includes the velocity variability induced macrodispersive flux of the covariance field, and the smoothing effects of diffusion. Previous formulations of the concentration covariance had dropped at least one of these effects. It is shown that both these effects need to be included to obtain a qualitatively correct description of the concentration fluctuations.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 423-431 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
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    Notes: Abstract The value of Shannon entropy for a given set of data depends on the class interval chosen to compute the relative frequency of each class. For three data sets, expressed in dimensional as well as nondimensional form, the entropy value was computed for different class-interval sizes. Entropy was found to decrease with increasing class interval as well as with increasing sampling interval. It is suggested that these intervals should be selected with care.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 449-457 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Settling tank ; diffusion in open sets ; elastic reflection ; boundary conditions ; efficiency ; exit time
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    Notes: Abstract When the diffusion term is supposed not to be zero at the boundary of a settling tank, we show that an alternate (and equivalent) description to the basic advection-diffusion equation for the concentration of micro pollutant consists in modelling the micro pollutant particles' trajectories as a diffusion stochastic process. Indeed, the density of this latter satisfies the same Pde as the advection-diffusion equation. Our emphasis here is on the computation of the so called tank efficiency and on the bottom boundary conditions. We claim that our interpretation in terms of a diffusion process helps to enlighten the choice of the appropriate mathematical boundary conditions. What is more, we introduce a scouring parameter and give its range as well as its physical interpretation.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 433-448 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Risk ; uncertainty ; reservoir operation ; sedimentation ; computer application
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    Notes: Abstract An attempt of using stochastic hydrologic technique to assess the intrinsic risk of reservoir operation is made in this study. A stochastic simulation model for reservoir operation is developed. The model consists of three components: synthetic generation model for streamflow and sediment sequences, one-dimensional delta deposit model for sediment transport processes in reservoirs, and simulation model for reservoir operation. This kind of integrated simulation model can be used to simulate not only the inflow uncertainty of streamflow and sedimentation, but also the variation in operation rules of reservoirs. It is herein used for the risk assessment of a reservoir, and the simulation is performed for different operation scenarios. Simulation for the 100-year period of sediment transport and deposition in the river-reservoir system indicates that the navigation risk is much higher than that of hydropower generation or sediment deposition in the reservoir. The risk of sediment deposition at the river-section near the backwater profile is also high thereby the navigation at the river-segment near this profile takes high risk because of inadequate navigation depth.
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    Rock mechanics and rock engineering 30 (1997), S. 1-18 
    ISSN: 1434-453X
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences
    Notes: Summary Results are presented from a testing program to study the effect weak layers embedded in a strong rock strata have on particle velocity when subjected to explosive loading. A similar computational study had been conducted earlier with WONDY — a finite difference Langrangian code developed at Sandia National Laboratory. The experiments were conducted using models fabricated from Hydrocal containing a single dry sand layer or clay layer through which the stress wave traveled. Particle velocity was measured in front of and past the weak layer to determine attenuation, pulse shape changes, and displacement loss. The results from the model testing indicated that particle velocity amplitude decreased significantly when the stress wave passed through the weak layer. The velocity pulse width on the other hand was found to remain relatively constant when passing through the weak layer. The computational results from WONDY predicted similar behavior and hence were in good agreement with the tests. In the experiments, the velocity loss across a sand layer was found to be much larger than the loss across a clay layer. The stress wave velocity in the sand layer was found to be significantly smaller than in the Hydrocal while the experimentally determined wave velocity in the clay was nearly equal to the wave velocity in the Hydrocal.
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    Rock mechanics and rock engineering 30 (1997), S. 19-33 
    ISSN: 1434-453X
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    Notes: Summary The knowledge of the stress field under which a crack in an engineering material or a rock is propagated and the trajectory it follows during its growth, is very important. In this paper the prediction of the crack growth trajectory and its initial angle θ c under mixed mode I–II loading is studied experimentally in marble beams. The three point bending test is used, together with the strain energy density theory (SED) of Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM). Experimental results are compared with theoretical predictions. The experimental results showed that: marble behaved as a brittle material; crack propagation was unstable and its trajectory followed, mainly, the grain boundaries; the prediction of the critical angle θ c and the first part of the trajectory, from the crack tip up to the point G, where a global minimum of the strain energy density is reached, can satisfactorily be made with the SED theory. Beyond point G, the initial stress field is different, and for application of the SED theory, the boundary conditions need redefinition.
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    Rock mechanics and rock engineering 30 (1997), S. 59-64 
    ISSN: 1434-453X
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 775-792 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Quasi-biennial oscillation, atmospheric temperature.
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    Notes: Abstract —The 4-season (12-month) running means of temperatures at five atmospheric levels (surface, 850–300 mb, 300–100 mb, 100–50 mb, 100–30 mb) and seven climatic zones (60°N–90°N, 30°N–60°N, 10°N–30°N, 10°N–10°S, 10°S–30°S, 30°S–60°S, 60°S–90°S) showed QBO (Quasi-biennial Oscillation), QTO (Quasi-triennial Oscillation) and larger periodicities. For stratosphere and tropopause, the temperature variations near the equator and North Pole somewhat resembled the 50mb low latitude zonal winds, mainly due to prominent QBO. For troposphere and surface, the temperature variations, especially those near the equator, resemble those of eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures, mainly due to prominent QTO. In general, the temperature trends in the last 35 years show stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming. But the trends are not monotonic. For example, the surface trends were downward during 1960–70, upward during 1970–82, downward during 1982–85 and upward thereafter. Models of green-house warming should take these non-uniformities into account.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 761-774 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Triad interactions, cross-spectral technique, wave-CISK process.
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    Notes: Abstract —In order to understand the physical mechanism for maintenance of low frequency waves, computations of nonlinear kinetic energy (KE) exchanges into individual triad interactions in frequency domain by use of cross-spectral technique over global tropics (20°S–30°N) at 850 hPa and 200 hPa for June, July and August of 1988 are carried out. The KE exchanges among different frequencies and the interactions between the transient eddies and the time mean flow are found to be an order of magnitude smaller in the lower troposphere than those in the upper troposphere. The results show two distinct spectral peaks of periods 45 and 25 days in nonlinear energy transfer in the lower troposphere. The former is more pronounced than the latter. The role of time mean flow on the low frequency transients is found to be secondary compared to the effect of the leading term due to nonlinear interactions in the lower troposphere. Low frequency waves suffer a net loss of energy in the upper troposphere. In the lower troposphere, north of 20°N low frequency waves lose energy through nonlinear triad interactions, unlike the upper troposphere where gain of energy is noticed. Longitude-frequency distributions suggest that wave-CISK process and strong gradient of SST are the possible mechanisms for the strong energy interactions associated with low frequency waves in the lower troposphere over the west Pacific and east coast of Africa, respectively. The study may aid investigation of the rapid loss of predictability of low frequency modes over the tropics.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 793-795 
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  • 37
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    Keywords: Key words: Seismic velocity model, hypocenter location, Itasy, Ankaratra, Madagascar.
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    Notes: Abstract. —A layered velocity is obtained using arrival-time data of P and S waves from local earthquakes for the Central Region of Madagascar. A damped least-squares method is applied in the inversion of the data. The data used are 770 P-wave arrival times for 154 events which have epicenters in the region inside the Malagasy network operated by the Institut et Observatoire de Géophysique d’Antananarivo (IOGA). These data are jointly used in the inversion for the earthquake hypocenters and P- and S-wave velocity models. S waves are not used in the first step of the inversion, since their use leads to large location errors. If the error on the phase reading for the P wave is about 0.1s, for the S wave it is considerably bigger. The reference average model used here is a variant of the model given by Rakotondrainibe (1977).
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 689-706 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Keywords: Slip distribution, stress drop, strong ground motion, Hurst exponent, fractional Brownian motion, fractal dimension.
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    Notes: Abstract —The characteristics of slip and stress drop distributions accompanying earthquakes are explored from the perspective of fractional Brownian motion (fBm). Slip and stress drop distributions are assumed to be processes of fBm.The Hurst exponent (H), which reveals the roughness of a random process of fBm, is first estimated from ten inferred slip maps for six crustal earthquakes occurring in California. The relationships between the Hurst exponents with respect to static slip (H u ),stress (H τ ), static stress drop (H δσ ) and slip velocity (H ú ) are then established following Andrews (1980). They are found to be H δσ = H τ = H u -1 = H ú -0.5. Empirically, H u is recognized as being about 1 which, according to the theory of fBm, implies that the static slip distribution of an earthquake is just on the margin between being and not being self-similar, depending on the individual case. Cases where H u is less than 1 (i.e., self-similar) suggest that H δσ 〈 0(i.e., the distribution of static stress drop diverges), which is, in light of fBm, invalid. One possible explanation for this paradox is that H u is less than 1 in crustal earthquake phenomena only over a certain specific bandwidth of wavenumbers, or it could be that the relation H δσ = H u -1 is not valid, which implies that static stress drop in the wavenumber domain is not the product of stiffness and slip as described in Andrews (1980). It could be that some different physics apply over this particular bandwidth. In such cases, multi-fractals may be a better way to explore the characteristics of the Hurst exponents of slip. In general, static stress drop and stress distributions are more likely to be self-similar than static slip distribution. H u ≌ 1 and H δσ ≌ 0 are good first approxima tions for the slip and stress drop distributions. The spectrum of ground motion displacement falls off as ω -(Hδσ + 2) with H δσ ≌ 0, consistent with an ω-2 model of the earthquake source.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 809-834 
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 835-837 
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 75-89 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Earthquakes, seismotectonics, Greece, Ionian Islands.
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    Notes: Abstract —Properties of the earthquake sequence of the 23 January, 1992 (5.8 M S  ) earthquake in Cephalonia Island, Western Greece, are investigated. The parameter b in the frequency-magnitude relation is found equal to 1.084 while the decay parameter p of the time distribution of the aftershock sequence is found equal to 0.991. The principal parameters method is applied to the aftershock sequence and the average strikes of N156°E (±20°) and N61°E (±10°) were obtained denoting also very small dips. The major strike which resulted from the aftershock epicentre distribution was NW–SE, similar to Miocene-Neogene basins on Cephalonia Island.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 157-180 
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 143-153 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Planetary boundary layer flow at equator.
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    Notes: Abstract —The boundary layer flows created by the frictional dissipation of the wind speed at the surface in the atmosphere and by surface wind stress in the ocean at the equator and in the equatorial region, are obtained by taking the influence of the surface friction on the zonal velocity as being balanced by vertical transport for the long-term mean flow and by a corresponding time variation for time-dependent flow fields. Solutions are expressed in terms of the velocities in zonal and vertical directions and the divergence of the horizontal current in the two media. It is found that under the ever present easterly flow in the lower atmosphere, the boundary layer flow in the atmosphere is convergence and ascending motion in the lower troposphere, and divergence at the surface and uplift in ocean, and in reverse directions for the westerly flow. Similar results are obtained for time-dependent wind fields and they give way to the steady asymptotic solutions when the period of the variation exceeds 10 months.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 249-264 
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 173-217 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Time-dependent seismicity ; seismogenic region ; circum-Pacific convergent belt
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    Notes: Abstract Investigation of the time-dependent seismicity in 274 seismogenic regions of the entire continental fracture system indicates that strong shallow earthquakes in each region exhibit short as well as intermediate term time clustering (duration extending to several years) which follow a power-law time distribution. Mainshocks, however (interevent times of the order of decades), show a quasiperiodic behaviour and follow the ‘regional time and magnitude predictable seismicity model’. This model is expressed by the following formulas $$\begin{gathered} \log T_t = 0.19 M_{\min } + 0.33 M_p - 0.39 \log m_0 + q \hfill \\ M_f = 0.73 M_{\min } - 0.28 M_p + 0.40 \log m_0 + m \hfill \\ \end{gathered} $$ which relate the interevent time,T t (in years), and the surface wave magnitude,M f , of the following mainshock: with the magnitude,M min, of the smallest mainshock considered, the magnitude,M p , of the preceded mainshock and the moment rate,m 0 (in dyn.cm.yr−1), in a seismogenic region. The values of the parametersq andm vary from area to area. The basic properties of this model are described and problems related to its physical significance are discussed. The first of these relations, in combination with the hypothesis that the ratioT/T t , whereT is the observed interevent time, follows a lognormal distribution, has been used to calculate the probability for the occurrence of the next very large mainshock (M s ≥7.0) during the decade 1993–2002 in each of the 141 seismogenic regions in which the circum-Pacific convergent belt has been separated. The second of these relations has been used to estimate the magnitude of the expected mainshock in each of the regions.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 391-404 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Central Andes, electrical anomaly, thermal anomaly.
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    Notes: Abstract —An enhancement of the electrical conductivity in the upper layers in the subduction zones of southern Peru and northern Argentina is found by analyzing the solar quiet geomagnetic variations. This feature appears in a zone associated with large subduction angles. In this region high values of heat flow have been measured, therefore a one-dimensional thermal model is proposed using regional characteristic parameters to reproduce these values. It is found that thermal convection necessarily plays a contributing role. This effect may be produced by the ascending magma and fluids, which can explain the enhancement of the electrical conductivity.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 375-390 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Clustering, multifractal.
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    Notes: Abstract —The clustering structure of the Vesuvian earthquakes occurring is investigated by means of statistical tools: the inter-event time distribution, the running mean and the multifractal analysis. The first cannot clearly distinguish between a Poissonian process and a clustered one due to the difficulties of clearly distinguishing between an exponential distribution and a power law one. The running mean test reveals the clustering of the earthquakes, but looses information about the structure of the distribution at global scales. The multifractal approach can enlighten the clustering at small scales, while the global behaviour remains Poissonian. Subsequently the clustering of the events is interpreted in terms of diffusive processes of the stress in the earth crust.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 357-374 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Afar Triangle, Tendaho Rift, microearthquakes, S-wave splitting.
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    Notes: Abstract —A temporary network has been used to study the seismic activity in the central-northern part of the Tendaho Rift (Afar Triangle, Ethiopia). Small size earthquakes (M 〈 2.5) characterize the seismicity during the time interval 1993–1994 when the seismic array was operating. Shocks are mainly located in the central part of the Tendaho rift and their epicentral distribution highlights a remarkable coincidence with NW-SE trending tectonically active structures. Focal depths are confined in the range of 3–8 km.   The few acceptable fault plane solutions suggest the occurrence of both strike-slip and dip-slip rupture mechanisms, which are often characterized by a nodal plane oriented approximately NW-SE.  A detailed study of earthquake waveforms using polarization analysis showed the occurrence of splitting phenomena for the S waves. Despite the differences in focal mechanisms, the similarity of the faster S-wave directions (NW-SE to NNW-SSE) suggests that the direction of geological structures and/or the systems of fractures adjacent to the faults could bias shear-wave propagation. The splitting time between fast and slow shear waves shows no systematic relationship with either hypocentral distance or focal depth, suggesting that the anisotropic volume is constrained to depths shallower than 3 km.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 299-312 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Peak acceleration, moment magnitude, hypocentral distance, Kamchatka.
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    Notes: Abstract —To estimate for the first time the typical relation between peak acceleration A max , moment magnitude M W and hypocentral distance R for Kamchatka, 101 analog strong motion records for 1969–1993 were employed as the initial data set. Records of acceleration and velocity meters were obtained at 15 rock to medium-ground Kamchatkan sites from 33 earthquakes with M W = 4.5–7.8, at R = 30–250 km. A max values were determined from "true" acceleration time histories calculated by spectral deconvolution of digitized records. The maximum value over the two horizontal components was used as the A max value in the further analysis. With the scarce data available, there were no chances to determine reliably the whole A max (M W  , R) average surface; thus the shape of this trend surface was determined on a theoretical basis and only the level was fitted to the data. The theoretical model employed included: (1) source spectrum: according to the Brune's spectral model; (2) point-source attenuation: as 1/R plus loss specified by Q(f) = 250 f 0.8; (3) finite-source correction for a disc-shaped incoherent source, its size depending on M W  ; (4) accelerogram duration: including source-dependent and distance-dependent terms; (5) A max value: based on random process representation. Distance trends calculated with this model agree with the empirical ones of FUKUSHIMA and TANAKA (1990). To calculate the absolute level for these trends, observed A max (M W  , R) values were reduced to M W = 8, R = 100 km using the theoretical trends as reference. The median of the reduced values, A max (8, 100), equal to 188 gal. was taken as the absolute reference level for the relation we sought. Note that in the process of data analysis we were forced to entirely reject relatively abundant data of two particular stations because of their prominent local amplification (×5.5) or deamplification (×0.45).
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 493-509 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Reservoir-induced seismicity, Dhamni Dam, seismicity of India.
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    Notes: Abstract. —Dhamni Dam (height 59 m, capacity 285 Mm3) was constructed about 100 km north of Mumbai (Bombay), India over the Deccan flood basalt and across the Surya River. The filling of the reservoir started in 1983. Construction of the dam was completed in 1990. However for want of environmental clearance, the maximum water column height in the reservoir since 1988 has been 45 m (8 m short of the maximum possible, 53 m) with the volume of water in the reservoir being 175 Mm3. The first phase of seismicity started in August 1984, soon after the reservoir reached a 22.5 m depth over the river bed level, and the increased level of seismicity continued for two years, when 605 shocks of M≥ -1.7 to 2.5 were recorded. During 1987–93, there were only a few shocks. Seismicity rejuvenated in 1994 when over 2000 shocks of M≥ -1.7 to 3.8 occurred, including 20 shocks of M≥ 3.0 which occurred during the months of January–February and August–September. Seismicity has continued at a low level during 1995 and 1996. The hypocenters are located in a volume of 10×10×10 km3 situated just south of the reservoir along the NW trending Kalu-Surya fault. Correlation of a space-time pattern of seismicity with reservoir filling and the seismic characteristics like b value, foreshock-aftershock pattern and decay rate of aftershocks indicate that the seismicity is reservoir induced.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 461-472 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Reservoir-induced seismicity, mine-induced seismicity, collapse earthquakes, Liaoning Province.
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    Notes: Abstract. —We describe three types of induced seismicity observed in Liaoning Province, China reservoir-induced seismicity, mine-induced seismicity and collapse earthquakes. A shock with magnitude M = 5.2 took place on December 22, 1974 at Shenwo Reservoir and some smaller earthquakes caused by impoundment also took place near other reservoirs. Numerous earthquakes associated with mining activity occurred in some coal mines. 56 collapse earthquakes with magnitude of M 〉 1.8 occurred at Binggou coal mine in Jianchang county. An analysis of the cause and some features of these three categories of the induced earthquakes are described in this paper.
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  • 52
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Broad-band waveform simulation strike-slip tectonics, plate boundary, plate kinematics, Caribbean and Cuba.
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    Notes: Abstract —On May 25th, 1992, an M s = 6.9 earthquake occurred off the southwestern tip of Cuba, along the boundary between the Caribbean and North American plates. This earthquake was the largest to strike southern Cuba since 1917 and the largest ever recorded in that region by global seismic networks. It is therefore a key element for our understanding of the tectonic and kinematic regime along the northern Caribbean plate boundary. In order to test the previously proposed source parameters of the Cabo Cruz earthquake and to better constrain its focal mechanism, we derived a new set of source parameters from unfiltered broad-band teleseismic records. We used a hybrid ray tracing method that allows us to take into account propagation effects of seismic waves in a realistic crustal model around the source. Our solution is consistent with the long-period focal mechanism solution of Virieux et al. (1992). Our solution also models the higher frequency crustal and water layer phases. The primarily strike-slip focal mechanism has a small thrust component. Its shows an east-west trending nodal plane dipping 55° to the north that we interpret as the rupture plane since it corresponds to the geometry of the major active fault in that area. The displacement on this plane is a left-lateral strike-slip combined with a small amount of southward thrust. The result is in good agreement with the active tectonic structures observed along the Oriente fault south of Cuba. The small thrust component demonstrates that, contrary to prior belief, the transpressive regime extends along this whole segment of the Caribbean/North American plate boundary. Together with historical seismicity, it suggests that most of the stress accumulated by the Caribbean/North American plate motion is released seismically along the southern Cuban margin during relatively few but large earthquakes.
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  • 53
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 731-746 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Earthquake hazards, NE Indian peninsula, probabilistic models.
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    Notes: Abstract —The Himalayan region is one of the most seismic prone areas of the world. The North-East (NE) Indian peninsula and the Hindukush regions mark the zone of collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates. The probability of the occurrence of great earthquakes with magnitude greater than 7.0 during a specified interval of time has been estimated on the basis of four probabilistic models, namely, Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal and Exponential for the NE Indian peninsula and Hindukush regions. The model parameters have been estimated by the method of Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) and the Method of Moments (MOM). The cumulative probability is estimated for a period of 40 years from 1964 and is ranging between 0.881 to 0.995 by the year 1995, using all four models for the NE Indian peninsula. The conditional probability is also estimated and it is concluded that the NE Indian peninsula would expect a great earthquake at any time in the remaining years of the present century. For the Hindukush region, the cumulative probability has already crossed its highest value, but no earthquake of magnitude greater than 7.0 has occurred after 1974 in this area. It may attribute to the occurrence of frequent shocks of moderate size, as seventeen earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.0, including four greater than 6.4, have been reported until 1994 from this region.
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  • 54
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    Keywords: Key words: Vøring Basin, crustal structure, 3-component OBSs.
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    Notes: Abstract —Semi-regional Ocean Bottom Seismograph (OBS) data acquired in the central and northern part of the Vøring Basin, mid-Norway margin, have been modeled by use of 2-D ray-tracing. The semi-regional model, derived from the study of twenty-five OBSs deployed along a 120-km long profile, is compared with a regional model consisting of five OBSs from the same profile. The semi-regional model is somewhat more detailed than the regional model, due to the considerably closer receiver spacing. The overall geometry and velocity distribution of the two models are remarkably similar, however, proving that the regional procedure with large OBS spacing provides a reliable regional model.¶Intrusions of sills, related to early Tertiary continental rifting and break up, are important at intermediate and deep sedimentary levels (2–10 km below sea floor) in most parts of the area. The semi-regional modeling suggests that one of the deepest sills extends much further east and is substantially thicker (locally more than 500 m) than indicated in the regional model. Another important difference is a high-velocity body within the upper crystalline crust at 11–12 km depth in the NW part of the area, indicating that the closer OBS spacing in the semi-regional modeling allows detection of local intra-crustal intrusions. Local differences are also inferred in the lower crust; at about 20 km depth a structure is inferred within the lower crust from wide-angle reflections. This might suggest that the high-velocity lower crustal layer, interpreted as magmatic underplating, consists of a mixture of underplated/intruded magmatic material and blocks of continental lower crust.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 667-688 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: 3-D velocity structure, circular ray tracing, San Andreas Fault, seismicity.
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —The three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure of the Bear Valley region of central California is determined by applying a circular ray-tracing technique to 1735 P-wave arrivals from 108 locally recorded earthquakes. Comparison of the results obtained from one-dimensional and laterally varying starting models shows that many of the features in the structure determined are fairly insensitive to the choice of the starting model. Velocities associated with the Gabilan granites southwest of the San Andreas Fault are slightly higher than those in the Franciscan formation to the northeast, and these two features are separated in the southern part of the region by a narrow fault zone with very low velocities. In the southeastern part of the region, where the Gabilan granites do not abut the San Andreas Fault, the low velocities of the fault zone cross over to the southwestern side of the fault. They also appear to extend to depths of at least 15km, thus locally reversing the contrast across the San Andreas Fault that prevails farther to the northwest. In the northwestern part of the region, the low velocities of the fault zone split and follow the surface traces of the San Andreas and Calaveras Faults, but do not appear to extend to depths much deeper than about 6km. There also appears to be a well-defined contrast in structure in the middle of the Santa Clara Valley, suggesting the existence of a fault in the basement of the valley that may be a southern extension of the Sargent Fault into this region. Relocated hypocenters beneath the San Andreas Fault cluster in a zone that dips about 80° southwest and intersects the surface trace of the fault in the southern part of region.
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  • 56
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 121-128 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: SP interpretation, polarized structures, least-squares method.
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —We have developed a least-squares minimization approach to determine the shape (shape-factor) of a buried polarized body from a residual self-potential anomaly profile. By defining the zero anomaly distance and the anomaly value at the origin on the profile, the problem of the shape-factor determination is transformed into the problem of finding a solution of a nonlinear equation of the form f(q) = 0. Procedures are also formulated to estimate the depth of polarization angle, and the electric dipole moment. The method is applied to synthetic data with and without random noise. The obtained shape-factor agrees very well with the model shape-factor when using synthetic data. After adding ± 2 percent random error in the synthetic data, the shape factor obtained is within ± 4 percent. Finally the validity of the method is tested on a field example from the Ergani copper district, Turkey.
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  • 57
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 1-18 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Coseismic surface deformation, terrain effects, the finite element method.
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —Coseismic surface deformation provides important information needed to determine source rupture geometry and slip distribution as well as to estimate seismic moment. In this study, numerical experiments were designed to analyze and classify how free-surface topography affects surface deformation. The investigation was performed by 3-D finite element modeling. Results of this study show that crustal deformation induced by near-fault terrain is significant and can be measured with present geodetic survey techniques. The characteristics of the terrain effects show that a hill structure produces more crustal deformation than a half-space model, and that the crustal deformation of a basin structure is less than that of the half-space model. The topographic correction is in the order of five percent of the fault dislocation. On the basis of the relationship between fault offset and earthquake magnitude, it is suggested that the terrain effects on the coseismic crustal deformation of shallow earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.6 should be considered as one of the major errors in coseismic deformation modeling which ignored the surface topography on the order of 300 meters.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 203-215 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Kaiser effect, acoustic emission, rock failure, damage, seismicity, non-linearity.
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    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. —The mechanism of Kaiser effect was studied with the aid of a damage model for rock. Recognizing that the AE counts are transient elastic waves due to local damage of the rock, the quantitative relation between AE counts and statistical distribution of the local strength of the rock has been established. Subsequently, according to Damage Theory, an expression for Kaiser Effect under uniaxial stress state was derived from the model. This is found to be in good agreement with the experimental results.
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  • 59
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 249-267 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Seismic quiescence, numerical simulation, rate- and state-dependent friction, preseismic sliding, stress relaxation.
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    Notes: Abstract —We propose a new model to physically explain the seismic quiescence precursory to a large interplate earthquake. A numerical simulation is performed to quantitatively examine possible stress changes prior to a great interplate earthquake in a subduction zone. In the present study, the frictional force following a laboratory-derived friction law, in which the friction coefficient is dependent on slip rate and slip history, is assumed to act on a dip-slip fault plane of infinite width in a uniform elastic half-space. The values of friction parameters are determined so that the result of numerical simulation may explain some properties of great interplate earthquakes in subduction zones, such as the recurrence interval and the seismic coupling coefficient. The result of simulation reveals that significant quasi-stable sliding occurs prior to a great earthquake and, accordingly, stresses are changed on and around the plate boundary. In a relatively wide area of the overriding continental plate, the compres sional horizontal-stress perpendicular to the trench axis is decreased for a few years before the occurrence of a great earthquake. This decrease in regional compressional stress may account for the appearance of seismic quiescence prior to a great interplate earthquake.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 181-201 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Fault dislocation, frictional heat production rheology, stress field.
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    Notes: Abstract. —A model is proposed to study the modification of the stress field at a transcurrent plate boundary due to frictional heat production at depth. Two cases are considered a stable and a stretched lithosphere. The model is applied to those weak faults where the dynamic friction is small compared to a static one; if the deformation along the brittle portion of the fault is entirely accommodated by a series of seismic ruptures in a quasi-static state where the fault has been moving for millions of years, the long-term thermal field perturbation due to these ruptures results in only a few degrees and can be neglected. The boundary zone is considered as a viscoelastic body subject to a constant strain rate. The lower section of the boundary is assumed to slip aseismically along a vertical transcurrent fault and to completely accommodate the plate motion, while the upper section is locked. The slipping zone is divided into a semi-brittle zone, placed between the isothermal surfaces of 300°C and 450°C, and a ductile zone beneath. The frictional heat is calculated by assuming a linearly decreasing friction in the semi-brittle and a constant friction in the ductile zones. The heat modifies the temperature field, producing an upward movement of the semi-brittle and ductile fault sections. As a consequence, the thickness of the brittle fault section is reduced and friction at the base of this section is less. The stress field in the boundary zone is calculated as a function of time for different friction profiles and slip rates on the fault. Owing to heat production, a greater stress concentration is produced on the brittle fault section, while shear stress is lowered in regions occupied by the uplifted semi-brittle layer. These effects are found to be remarkable only in the case of a stable zone, with a standard unperturbed geotherm, while they are irrelevant in a stretched zone with a high geothermal gradient. In any case, the role of the semi-brittle layer appears to be more prominent in the case of boundaries with higher slip rates, due to the presence of higher stress values.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 17-20 
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 61-78 
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  • 63
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    Notes: Conclusions Several cases of extremely strong quiescences have been investigated in great detail, and it was found that they are statistically highly significant and that they cannot be reasonably explained by catalog heterogeneity. Several additional cases of quantitatively measured quiescence have been documented. The method of measuring quiescence has progressed from using visual means to using a quantitative approach, and the understanding of the noise sources has significantly advanced during the last few years. Therefore I feel that quiescence is a real phenomenon and the method to detect it has matured to a point that is acceptable for the List of Significant Precursors, although considerably more work needs to be done to understand this parameter and its role in the earthquake generation process.
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  • 64
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 269-284 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Seismic tomography, cross-borehole, local inhomogeneities, ray tracing.
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    Notes: Abstract —This numerical study is devoted to distortions of local anomalies which are revealed by 2-D and 3-D cross-borehole seismic tomography based on first arrival travel times. The fact that prolonged subvertical anomalies may disappear in the final velocity model is well known. But distortions are also inherent to images of local inhomogeneities. These distortions are accompanied with false anomalies of the opposite sign located just above and below true ones. I offer a semi-empirical explanation of their existence, proving that they are an inherent consequence of observation geometry incompleteness. To improve the quality of the model obtained with cross-borehole tomography, a 3-D acquisition geometry may be used when additional boreholes are positioned around the target object. Results of 3-D tomographic experiments however may be considerably distorted for another reason nonaccounted bending of seismic rays.¶To generate the travel times, a ray-tracing procedure making use of the graph theory was applied. Tomographic inversion was performed by an algorithm based on the assumption of the unknown function smoothness.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 217-248 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Earthquake precursors, Loma Prieta earthquake, fault zones, crustal fluids, electromagnetic theory, crustal conductivity.
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    Notes: Abstract —The 1989 M s = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake was preceded for 12 days by what have been claimed as precursory ultra-low-frequency (ULF) magnetic noise anomalies ten times background, and by a very high peak up to 100 times background just 3 hours before the earthquake. We propose that these anomalous fields could have been due to the formation of a long thin highly-conductive region along the earthquake fault, which magnified the external electromagnetic waves incident on the earth’s surface. We use a simplified quantitative model, assuming a highly-conductive elliptic cylinder embedded in a layered resistivity structure, which we base on independent magnetotelluric measurements. The magnetic-field anomaly observed 3 hours before the main shock can be modeled by assuming an elliptic conductor extending from the surface to the hypocenter with a conductivity of 5 S · m−1. Our computed anomaly matches the observed anomaly to within a deviation of 35% over an observed frequency range of over 2 orders of magnitude, over which the measured anomaly varies from only about twice background (at 5 Hz) to about 100 times background (at 0.01 Hz). In addition, other anomalies recorded up to 12 days before the earthquake, can be modeled in detail by varying only the size of the elliptic conductor.¶We show that such an increase in conductivity could be caused by a precursory reorganization of the geometry of fluid-filled porosity in the fault-zone, which we call a dilatant-conductive effect. The extreme observed magnetic anomalies can be modeled using the high fault-zone porosity (c. 10%) and fluid conductivity (equivalent to 2 M NaCl) implied by other workers’ magneto-telluric measurements, but without requiring the large-scale precursory fluid flow characteristic of other published models for the magnetic-field precursors.
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  • 66
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper we evaluate the present state of the seismic regime in Southern California using the concentration parameter of seismogenic faults (K sf ,Sobolev andZavyalov, 1981). The purpose of this work is to identify potential sites for large earthquakes during the next five or ten years. The data for this study derived from the California Institute of Technology's catalog of southern California earthquakes, and spanned the period between 1932 to June 1982. We examined events as small asM L ≥1.8 but used a magnitude cutoff atM L =3.3 for a detailed analysis. The size of the target earthquakes (M M ) was chosen as 5.3 and 5.8. The algorithm for calculatingK sf used here was improved over the algorithm described bySobolev andZavyalov (1981) in that it considered the seismic history of each elementary seismoactive volume. The dimensions of the elementary seismoactive volumes were 50 km×50 km and 20 km deep. We found that the mean value ofK sf within 6 months prior to the target events was 6.1±2.0 for target events withM L ≥5.3 and 5.4≥1.8 for targets withM L ≥5.8. Seventy-three percent of the targets withM L ≥5.8 occurred in areas whereK sf was less than 6.1. The variance of the time between the appearance of areas with lowK sf values and the following main shocks was quite large (from a few months to ten years) so this parameter cannot be used here for accurate predictions of occurrence time. Regions where the value ofK sf was below 6.1 at the end of our data set (June, 1982) are proposed as the sites of target earthquakes during the next five to ten years. The most dangerous area is the area east of San Bernardino whereK sf values are presently between 2.9 and 3.7 and where there has been no earthquake withM L ≥5.3 since 1948.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 159-171 
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    Notes: Abstract People have already recognized the temperature increase anomaly before earthquakes, and studies have been made on this phenomenon (Wu, 1980;Wu et al., 1982;Geng, 1985). With the method of fixed-point network observation, only the timing temperature data limited to some sites can be obtained instead of dynamic evolution data of the temperature in a large area within the seismogenic range. However, it is advantageous to use the thermal infrared (IR) radiation measured by Meteosat to detect the ground temperature, because of the data accuracy, large area coverage, large amount of information, and the capability of capturing the time-space dynamic variation of the temperature increase before earthquakes. However relevant works on the relationship of the thermal IR anomaly measured by Meteosat to seismic activity are only found published in the Soviet Union (Gornuy et al., 1988). The authors used the thermal IR anomaly measured by Meteosat to monitor and tried to predict the earthquake of October 18, 1989 in Datong, Shanxi Province and other shocks, and obtained preliminary ideas and methods for carrying out predictions in this way.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 233-247 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquake prediction ; prediction objective ; prediction error diagram ; hazard function ; Bellman equation
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    Notes: Abstract In this review we consider an interdisciplinary problem of earthquake prediction involving economics. This joint research aids in understanding the prediction problem as a whole and reveals additional requirements for seismostatistics. We formulate the problem as an optimal control problem: Prossessing the possibility to declare several types of alerts, it is necessary to find an optimal changing alert types; each successful prediction prevents a certain amount of losses; total expected losses are integrated over the semi-infinite time interval. The discount factor is included in the model. Algorithmic and exact solutions are indicated. This paper is based on the recent results byMolchan (1990, 1991, 1992).
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 601-622 
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    Keywords: Key words: Atmospheric radiative transfer, circulation, Indian summer monsoon, thermal forcing.
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    Notes: Abstract —The radiative-convective feedback and land-sea thermal forcing play significant roles in maintenance of the summer monsoon circulation over the Indian sub-continent. In this study, the role of radiative transfer in maintaining the monsoon circulation is examined with numerical sensitivity experiments. For this purpose, a sixteen layer primitive equation limited area model is used to perform numerical simulations with and without atmospheric radiative transfer processes parameterized in the model. The initial values and boundary conditions for the numerical integrations of the model are derived from operational analyses of the ECMWF, UK. The results show that the radiative transfer is essential in maintaining the intensity of the low level Somali Jet as well as the upper level Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) over the Indian sub-continent and adjoining seas. The meridional circulation over the region is also well simulated. As a result, enough moisture transports from the warm equatorial region to simulate more realistic orographic precipitation in the windward side of the mountains along the West coast of India. Without radiative transfer processes in the model atmosphere the simulated monsoon circulation weakens, moisture transport decreases and the precipitation lessens.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 525-540 
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    Keywords: Key words: Narmada-Son Lineament, lower crust, layering.
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    Notes: Abstract —Comparison of deep seismic sounding (DSS) results of different profiles across the Narmada-Son Lineament (NSL), India indicates the anomalous nature of the crust along the Ujjain-Ma han profile. Forward travel time and synthetic seismogram modeling, using normalized record sections of refraction and wide angle reflection data acquired along the Ujjain-Mahan deep seismic sounding profile across NSL, brings into focus the presence of high velocity (7.0–7.3 km/s) subhorizontal layers from a depth of 8–12 km down to Moho. The tectonic implication of such reflections (layering in the crust) is discussed. The two fault zones, reported by earlier workers, flanking the rift might have acted as feeders for the mantle material to intrude into the middle and lower crustal columns.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 575-599 
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    Keywords: Key words: Attenuation, coda Q, southern Mexico.
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    Notes: Abstract —Broad band digital three-component data recorded at UNM, a GEOSCOPE station, were used to estimate Lg coda Q for 34 medium size (3.9 ≤m b ≤ 6.3) earthquakes with travel paths laying in different geological provinces of southern Mexico in an effort to establish the possible existence of geological structures acting as wave guides and/or travel paths of low attenuation between the Pacific coast and the Valley of Mexico. The stacked spectral ratio method proposed by XIE and NUTTLI (1988) was chosen for computing the coda Q. The variation range of Q 0 (Q at 1 Hz) and the frequency dependence parameter η estimates averaged on the frequency interval of 0.5 to 2 Hz for the regions and the three components considered are: i) Guerrero region 173 ≤Q¯ 0≤ 182 and 0.6 ≤Q¯ 0 ≤ 0.7, ii) Oaxaca region 183 ≤Q¯ 0 ≤ 198 and 0.6 ≤Q¯ 0 ≤ 0.8, iii) Michoacan-Jalisco region 187 ≤Q¯ 0 ≤ 204 and 0.7 ≤Q¯ 0 ≤ 0.8 and iv) eastern portion of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) 313 ≤Q 0≤ 335 and η = 0.9. ¶The results show a very high coda Q for the TMVB as compared to other regions of southern Mexico. This unexpected result is difficult to reconcile with the geophysical characteristics of the TMVB, e.g., low seismicity, high volcanic activity and high heat flow typical of a highly attenuating (low Q) region. Visual inspection of seismograms indicates that for earthquakes with seismic waves traveling along the TMVB, the amplitude decay of Lg coda is anomalously slow as compared to other earthquakes in southern Mexico. Thus, it seems that the high Q value found does not entirely reflect the attenuation characteristics of the TMVB but it is probably contaminated by a wave-guide effect. This phenomenon produces an enhancement in the time duration of the Lg wave trains travelling along this geological structure. This result is important to establish the role played by the transmission medium in the extremely long duration of ground motion observed during the September 19, 1985 Michoacan earthquake. ¶The overall spatial distribution of coda Q values indicates that events with focus in the Michoacan-Jalisco and Oaxaca regions yield slightly higher values than those from Guerrero. This feature is more pronounced for the horizontal component of coda Q. A slight dependence of average coda Q −1 on earthquake focal depth is observed in the frequency range of 0.2 to 1.0 Hz approximately on the horizontal component. Deeper (h 〉 50 km) events yield lower values of Q −1 than shallower events. For frequencies higher than 1.0 Hz no clear dependence of Q −1 on focal depth is observed. However, due to the estimates uncertainties this result is not clearly established.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 507-524 
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    Keywords: Key words: Attenuation, neural networks, Rayleigh scattering.
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    Notes: Abstract —Using laboratory data, the influence of rock parameters on seismic attenuation has been analyzed using artificial neural networks and regression models. The predictive capabilities of the neural networks and multiple linear regresssion were compared. The neural network outperforms the multiple linear regression in predicting attenuation values, given a set of input of rock parameters. The neural network can make complex decision mappings and this capability is exploited to examine the influence of various rock parameters on the overall seismic attenuation. The results indicate that the most influential rock parameter on the overall attenuation is the clay content, closely followed by porosity. Though grain size contribution is of lower importance than clay content and porosity, its value of 16 percent is sufficiently significant to be considered in the modeling and interpretation of attenuation data.
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    Keywords: Key words: Reservoir-induced seismicity, nucleation, pore pressure.
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    Notes: Abstract. —Earthquakes continue to occur in the vicinity of Shivaji Sagar Lake since its creation by the Koyna Dam in 1962. The seismicity peaked in 1967 with a M 6.3 earthquake which claimed over 200 human lives and destroyed the Koyna township. Earthquakes of M≥ 4 occur every year following an increase of water level in the reservoir. During 1973, 1980 and 1993–94 earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 occurred. Most earthquakes of M≥ 4 are associated with pronounced foreshocks and aftershocks. Starting Sepember 1993, seismic monitoring was vastly improved with the deployment of additional close-by stations (analog and digital). The focal parameters now available have enabled delineation of the active faults and deciphering of the earthquake nucleation process. During 1995–96, 13 boreholes were drilled to depths of 130 to 250 m and measurement of water levels in these wells was initiated. A preliminary analysis of one year's data from a borehole 1 km south of Koyna reveals tidal signatures, indicating connection of the well to a confined aquifer which is favorable for detection of pore pressure anomalies induced by crustal strain. We hope to improve our understanding of the genesis of reservoir-induced earthquakes at Koyna with these new measurements.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 563-583 
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    Keywords: Key words: Fluid injection, induced seismicity, aseismic slip, downhole monitoring network, surface monitoring network.
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    Notes: Abstract. —A 3600 m deep well has been used to conduct large water injection tests in the Rhine Graben. The total volume injected during the fall 1993 reconnaissance program reached 44000 m3. Induced seismicity was monitored with both a downhole and a surface seismic network. About 20000 events have been recorded by the downhole tools and 165 events with the surface network. The largest observed magnitude reached 1.9, as determined from signal duration observed on the surface network. Borehole televiewer observations show that some slip events were larger than 4 cm at the borehole wall, a value much larger than the slip motion associated with microseismic events, as evaluated from events' magnitude. It is concluded that these observed slip events were aseismic. This implies that induced seismicity is not a good marker for the efficiency of this hydraulic stimulation. It only helps to identify zones of high pore pressure during injection.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 1-2 
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 3-16 
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    Notes: Abstract This review summarizes the result of the second round of nominations for the IASPEI Preliminary List of Significant Precursors. Currently this List contains five cases of precursors: (1) foreshocks, (2) preshocks, (3) seismic quiescence before major aftershocks, (4) radon decrease in ground water, and (5) ground water level increase. A list of four cases that could not be accepted nor rejected by the panels reviewing them contains three on crustal deformations and one on seismic quiescence. In the second round 10 nominations were evaluated, nine new ones and one which had been considered previously. Two were accepted for the List, two were placed in the category of undecided cases. To date, a total of 40 nominations have been evaluated by IASPEI. For 37 of these the nominations, the mail reviews, the panel opinions, and, where supplied, the author's reply were published. This evaluation process remains active throughout the International Decade for Natural Hazards Reduction. Additional nominations are invited. The IASPEI Sub-commission on Earthquake Prediction does not guarantee that precursors accepted for the List can be used for earthquake prediction, nor does rejection of a nomination mean that the particular method could never become useful for prediction. However, the List, as well as the interchanges between authors and reviewers, allow us to gauge the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction research. It is clear that we do not have an earthquake prediction capability, because the manner in which to use the few precursors on the List for predictions is not known. It also appears that many of the results thought to be conclusive by the authors, may not command the respect of the seismological research community at large. A more quantitative approach to data analysis, the use of rigorous statistical techniques, and high quality, long-term data sets are needed to make progress in earthquake prediction research.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 147-157 
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 219-232 
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    Keywords: Intermediate-term earthquake prediction ; prediction algorithms ; testing and evaluating hypothesis ; null hypothesis
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    Notes: Abstract A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.
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  • 79
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 313-336 
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    Keywords: Key words: Block-structure dynamics, Gutenberg-Richter law, Vrancea.
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    Notes: Abstract —A seismically active region is modelled as a system of absolutely rigid blocks separated by infinitely thin plane faults. The interaction of the blocks along the fault planes and with the underlying medium is viscous-elastic. The system of blocks moves as a consequence of prescribed motion of the boundary blocks and of the underlying medium. When, for some part of a fault plane the stress exceeds a certain strength level, a stress-drop ("a failure") occurs, and it can cause failures in other parts of the fault planes. In our model the failures represent earthquakes. As a result of the numerical simulation a synthetic earthquake catalog is produced.   The procedure is applied to the numerical modelling of the dynamics of the block-structure, which approximates the tectonic structure of the Vrancea region. The result of the numerical experiment is a synthetic earthquake catalog with the space distribution of epicenters close to the real distribution and the frequency-magnitude relations (Gutenberg-Richter curves) obtained for the synthetic and real catalogs possessing some common features.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 337-355 
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    Keywords: Key words: Self-synchronisation, nonlinear effects, seismic energy release, rock bursts, amplitude- phase analysis, relative width of frequency spectra.
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    Notes: Abstract —The results of the frequency analysis of seismoacoustic elastic waves radiated from the loaded rock sample source models and of rock bursts records are presented. For both categories of study the fundamental symptoms of nonlinear processes in seismic foci were found and demonstrated. Namely, the wave-field modulation (satellites in the spectra), forced synchronisation (spectra simplification and their transformation into a narrow spectral band), frequency shift to lower values and, finally, coherency of radiation. A new method of amplitude-phase distribution is worked out. All this indicates that nonlinear processes can participate in a seismic source during the energy release. Also, the disagreement between the source sizes observed in the nature and computed by means of linear physics, can be explained by self-organising processes.
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  • 81
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 405-419 
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    Keywords: Key words: Wavelet transform, audio-frequency magnetotellurics, signal-to-noise ratio.
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    Notes: Abstract —For audio-frequency magnetotelluric surveys where the signals are lightning-stroke transients, the conventional Fourier transform method often fails to produce a high quality impedance tensor. An alternative approach is to use the wavelet transform method which is capable of localizing target information simultaneously in both the temporal and frequency domains. Unlike Fourier analysis that yields an average amplitude and phase, the wavelet transform produces an instantaneous estimate of the amplitude and phase of a signal. In this paper a complex well-localized wavelet, the Morlet wavelet, has been used to transform and analyze audio-frequency magnetotelluric data. With the Morlet wavelet, the magnetotelluric impedance tensor can be computed directly in the wavelet transform domain. The lightning-stroke transients are easily identified on the dilation-translation plane. Choosing those wavelet transform values where the signals are located, a higher signal-to-noise ratio estimation of the impedance tensor can be obtained.   In a test using real data, the wavelet transform showed a significant improvement in the signal-to-noise ratio over the conventional Fourier transform.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 421-445 
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  • 83
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 265-297 
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    Keywords: Key words: Ground motion, seismic hazard, near-source, asperity.
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    Notes: Abstract —A new, yet simple, method using the asperity model to estimate ground motion in the near-source regime for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses is proposed in this study. This near-source model differs from conventional empirical attenuation equations. It correlates peak ground motions with the local contributing source in terms of the static stress drop released non-uniformly on the causative fault plane rather than with the whole seismic source in terms of magnitude. Here the model is simplified such that ground motions at a rock or firm soil site near extended vertical strike-slip faults are dominated by direct shear waves. The proposed model is tested by comparing its predictions with strong ground motion observations from the 1979 Imperial Valley and the 1984 Morgan Hill earthquakes. The results have revealed that ground motions in the near-source region can be adequately predicted using the asperity model with appropriate calibration factors. The directivity effect of ground motion in the near-source region is negligible for high-frequency accelerations. The cut-off frequency (ƒmax ) at a site is an important parameter in the near-source region. Higher values of ƒmax yield higher estimates of peak ground accelerations. For high-frequency structures, ƒmax should be carefully estimated. In the near- source region both non-uniform and uniform source models can produce non-stationary high-frequency ground motions. Peak motions may not be caused by the nearest sections of the fault (even if the uniform source model is considered).
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 489-506 
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    Keywords: Key words: Permeability, electrical conductivity, porous rocks.
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    Notes: Abstract —The "dynamic" permeability k(ω) of heterogeneous networks of cracks, tubes and spheres, was determined by numerically simulating the harmonic flow of an interstitial fluid for a wide range of frequencies. For comparison with previous works, this procedure was applied to the 100 network realizations used in Bernabé (1995). In most cases, the calculated frequency dependence of the real and imaginary parts of k(ω) was consistent with the JKD model (Johnson et al., 1987), showing a transition from "viscous", macroscopic flow at low frequencies to "inertial" flow at high frequencies. The viscous skin depth δ c at the transition was found to be proportional to the critical capillary radius r c from a capillary invasion (Katz and Thompson, 1986). A simple explanation is that these two length scales arise from the same percolation problem. On the other hand, δ c was not well correlated with the JKD parameter Λ. The conclusion is that Λ and δ c (or r c  ) are two independent parameters, derived from two unrelated approaches (i.e., weighted averaging and percolation theory). Finally, an attempt was made to relax the initial assumptions of a rigid solid matrix and an incompressible fluid. It was observed that the effect of the fluid compressibility could occasionally be very large, especially when networks with large amounts of storage pore space were considered.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 541-551 
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    Keywords: Key words: Synthetic seismograms, absorption and dispersion.
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    Notes: Abstract —An algorithm has been developed to compute the dispersive and dissipative seismic response using FUTTERMAN’S (1962) third attenuation-dispersion relationship. In the computation, frequency-dependent velocity and quality factor Q have been used but in the case of the nondispersive synthetic seismogram, frequency-independent velocity has been used. The model’s parameters are density, phase velocity, quality factors and thicknesses of the layers. Dispersive and nondispersive synthetic seismograms have been computed with and without absorption for a layered earth geological model. Fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique has been adopted for converting the frequency domain response into the time domain. The frequency spacing, Δf = 0.976 Hz, has been considered to avoid the aliasing effect. The results have revealed changes in the reflected waveforms in the frequency domain as well as in the time domain for absorption and dispersion cases. It is also concluded that dispersion reduces the arrival time and this effect is increasing with the travel time. The effect of constant Q on the seismic response has also been studied.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 447-473 
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    Keywords: Key words: Tomographic inversion, Rayleigh wave, group velocity, upper mantle, China, Siberia.
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    Notes: Abstract —Rayleigh waves are used in a tomographic inversion to obtain group velocity maps of East Asia (40° E–160° E and 20° N–70° N). The period range studied is 30 to 70 seconds. Seismograms used for this study were recorded at CDSN stations, at a temporary broadband seismic array in Tibet, at several SRO stations, and Kirnos-equipped stations established in Asia by the former Soviet Union, in Siberia, in the Sakhalin and in Mongolia. Altogether more than 1200 paths were available in the tomographic inversion. The study area includes the Angara craton, the geologically ancient core of Asia, and the subsequently accreted units, the Altaids (a Paleozoic collision complex), the Sino-Korean platform (a chain of Archaen terranes separated by belts of active structures), the south China platform (a collage of Precambrian, Paleozoic and Mesozoic metamorphic and igneous terranes), as well as the Tibetan plateau (an active tectonic feature created in late Cenozoic through collision of the Indian subcontinent and the Asian continent). Many of these main units are recognizable in the tomographic images as distinctive units; Tibet appears as a prominent low velocity (about −15% from the average) structure, with western and central Tibet often appearing as the areas with the lowest velocities, the Central Asian fold-belt, and the Angara craton are consistently high group velocity areas. Some lesser tectonic features are also recognizable. For example, Lake Baikal is seen as a high velocity feature at periods greater than 40 seconds. However, the high group velocity feature does not stop near the southern end of Lake Baikal; it extends south-southwestward across Mongolia. The North China Plain, a part of the platform where extensional tectonics dominate, is an area of high velocities as a result of relatively thin crust. The south China block, the least tectonically active region of China, is generally an area of high velocity. For periods longer than 40 seconds, a NNE trending high group velocity gradient clearly exists in eastern China; the velocities are noticeably higher in the east. From the group velocity maps, average dispersion curves at twelve locations were determined and inverted to obtain velocity structures. Main results of group velocity inversion include: (1) a Tibetan crust of around 60 km thick, with low crustal and upper mantle shear velocities, at 3.3 km/s and 4.2 km/s, respectively; (2) with the Moho constrained at 40–43 km, the Angara craton and the Central Asian foldbelt have a V S in excess of 4.6 km/s; (3) relatively low shear velocities are obtained for tectonically active areas. In many parts of the study area, where Precambrian basement is exposed, the process in the crust and upper mantle due to recent tectonic activities have modified the crust and upper mantle velocity structures under the Precambrian terranes, they are no longer underlain by high velocity crust and mantle.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 623-639 
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 553-574 
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    Keywords: Key words: Correlation dimension, Hurst exponent, point process, seismicity, Weibull distribution.
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    Notes: Abstract —Deception Island is characterized by small magnitude local events with constant energy flux and very low stress drop. To obtain information about its origin, an interevent time series of 546 events, corresponding to an observational period of two month, has been analyzed. From a statistical point of view, data satisfies a Weibull distribution and presents clustering. A rescaled range analysis reveals that data are not independent, i.e. have memory, and the correlation dimension saturates at 2.2; as a consequence, the system can be modeled as a nonlinear iterative equation with three degrees of freedom that presents chaotic behavior. Taking into account that the average interevent time is of the order of 130 minutes, too short to be only due to tectonic activity, the above results indicate that some other mechanism may coexist with the regional tectonic one. According to several geological and geophysical observations, we suggest that most of the local events may be originated by pressure waves generated by a sudden change of phase, of sea and fresh water infiltrated into the main fractures and faults and also from shallow and confined water-saturated layers.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 747-759 
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    Keywords: Key words: Geomagnetism, spatial power spectra, fractals.
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    Notes: Abstract —The spatial power spectrum of the scalar potential (V) of the main geomagnetic field shows a power-law behaviour at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and an almost uniform distribution of the corresponding phases. This is strong evidence for a fractal topography of V having a non-integer dimension of 2.2 (with an uncertainty of ± 0.1) which is, indeed, found from an analysis of the power spectra of 32 spherical harmonic models of V spanning the interval 1647 to 1990.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 91-111 
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    Keywords: Key words: Dial-up telemetry, spectral analysis, seismic source parameters, greek earthquakes.
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    Notes: Abstract —A regional dial-up PT telemetric network of eight digital short-period seismic stations has been in full operation since the beginning of 1995 in Greece. During the first year of full operation, three destructive earthquake sequences struck different regions of central and northern Greece. The dial-up network managed to successfully record more than 85% of these seismic events including foreshocks, main shocks and aftershocks, and 45 of these events were selected in order to determine their seismic source parameters by spectral analysis. The results show that seismic moment correlates very well with earthquake magnitude, fault radius and fault displacement. The determined scaling relations are in general agreement with those obtained by other studies for Greek earthquakes that used different methodologies. Since digital seismic instrumentation is now expanding in Greece, these first results from spectral analysis of digital short-period data can be considered useful for future seismic hazard studies.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 113-120 
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    Keywords: Key words:ω-values, circum-Pacific belt, mechanical structure.
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    Notes: Abstract —A data set of earthquakes which occurred in the circum-Pacific regions has been used to compute the ω values. This parameter is obtained through Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values and is well known as upper bound magnitude. The results show relatively higher ω values in South America, Central America and Mexico, than in the western part of the circum-Pacific belt. The results are interpreted in terms of the different mechanical structure (heterogeneity) of the materials in the eastern and western parts of the examined area.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 53-73 
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    Keywords: Key words: Indian Ocean, moment tensor solution.
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    Notes: Abstract —Rayleigh and Love waves generated by sixteen earthquakes which occurred in the Indian Ocean and were recorded at 13 WWSSN stations of Asia, Africa and Australia are used to determine the moment tensor solution of these earthquakes. A combination of thrust and strike-slip faulting is obtained for earthquakes occurring in the Bay of Bengal. Thrust, strike slip or normal faulting (or either of the combination) is obtained for earthquakes occurring in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The resultant compressive and tensional stress directions are estimated from more than 300 centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution of earthquakes occurring in different parts of the Indian Ocean. The resultant compressive stress directions are changing from north-south to east-west and the resultant tensional stress directions from east-west to north-south in different parts of the Indian Ocean. The results infer the counterclockwise movement of the region (0°–33°S and 64°E–94°E), stretching from the Rodriguez triple junction to the intense deformation zone of the central Indian Ocean and the formation of a new subduction zone (island arc) beneath the intense deformation zone of the central Indian Ocean and another at the southern part of the central Indian basin. The compressive stress direction is along the ridge axis and the extensional stress manifests across the ridge axis. The north-south to northeast-south west compression and east-west to northwest-southeast extension in the Indian Ocean suggest the northward underthrusting of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate and the subduction beneath the Sunda arc region in the eastern part. The focal depth of earthquakes is estimated to be shallow, varying from 4 to 20 km and increasing gradually in the age of the oceanic lithosphere with the focal depth of earthquakes in the Indian Ocean.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 19-36 
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    Keywords: Key words: Strike-slip fault, coalescence, link distance, combined fault length, bend.
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    Notes: Abstract —The maximum fault link distance (lateral separation) between two interacting strike-slip faults is studied in relation to fault length (combined length of the two interacting faults). Data collected for laboratory generated strike-slip faults indicate that fault linkage takes place when the lateral separation between two strike-slip faults is less than one tenth of the combined length of the two faults. Strike-slip faults developed in clay models require a smaller link distance than those developed in gouge materials. About 98% of the data collected for natural strike-slip faults and 93% of earthquake rupture data derived from Knuepfer (1989) follow the rule. These observations support a simple scaling relationship for strike-slip faults, i.e.,W≤ 0.1 L where Wis lateral link distance and L the combined fault length (An and Sammis, 1996a). Two possible explanations are discussed. Assuming a fault continues to be dominantly strike-slip after various fault coalescences, the fault link distance for both compressional coalescence (leading to restraining bend) and extensional coalescence (leading to releasing bend) can be constrained within 0.134 L. Assuming fault coalescence is caused by interaction between breakdown zones at fault tips, then the scaling relationship b = 0.1 l between the size of a breakdown zone, b,and the individual fault length, l (Scholz et al.,1993), leads to the scaling relationship W max = 0.1 L where W max is the maximum link distance.¶The above observed relationship between W max and L may not hold if faults coalesce through preexisting faults, if a fault has a mixed mode other than strike-slip, or if a fault bend is caused by cross faulting rather than fault coalescence. Limited exposure of natural fault traces may also lead to errors in link distance measurements.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 129-142 
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    Keywords: Key words: Monsoon, fluxes, friction velocity.
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    Notes: Abstract —The atmospheric surface layer over land may behave differently in the tropics, particu larly during the monsoon. A preliminary attempt is made to observe the behavior of surface layer characteristics such as fluxes of momentum, sensible heat and latent heat, friction velocity, friction temperature, M-O length scale, Richardson number and Bowen’s ratio over Kharagpur (22°20′N, 87°18′E), a typical moist tropical station. The diurnal and day-to-day variations have been studied. It is observed that during the active phase of the monsoon the sensible heat flux and Bowen’s ratio are low. The diurnal variation is apparent for most parameters. Mostly near neutral conditions are observed.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 37-52 
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    Keywords: Key words: Spectrum analysis, magma, Vp/Vs ratio.
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    Notes: Abstract —The Nikko region, in northern Kanto, central Japan, which is a high seismicity region, is located near the volcanic front. Many seismic observations have been carried out around the Nikko region because the seismograms of the shallow earthquakes occurring in this region show an S-wave reflected phase (SxS) and an S-to-P mode-converted and reflected phase (SxP) from a mid-crustal seismic velocity discontinuity. The depth of the mid-crustal reflector was estimated to be about 9–16 km. From the amplitude analyses of SxS and SxP phases, the material of the mid-crustal layer just beneath the reflector was expected to be a low rigidity layer, which was interpreted as partially molten rocks. No evidence has been shown for the internal properties of the material of the reflector. The Vp/Vs ratio is a good measure to distinguish between the two candidates for seismic reflectors; i.e., partially molten rocks and rocks containing water. We investigate the Vp/Vs ratio of the reflector using the spectrum analyses of the data observed by a seismic array. From spectrum analysis of the data, we indicate that the Vp/Vs ratio of 2.5 is better than that of 1.8 to explain the observed data, which shows that the material beneath the reflector consists of partially molten rocks.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 285-304 
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    Keywords: Key words: Campi Flegrei, attenuation, predominant frequency, azimuthal variations.
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    Notes: Abstract —In this paper we have determined apparent Q from body-wave dispersion and a spectral ratio method for the Campi Flegrei area. A contour map of azimuthal variations of apparent Q (ranging from Q = 4 to Q = 40) reveals that the lower Q (higher attenuation) corresponds to an area that includes the Solfatara Crater (with active fumaroles), near the site of maximum uplift produced during the bradyseismic crisis of 1984, and just over the site evidencing the presence of a magmatic body. A strong azimuthal variation of the predominant frequency of the first pulse of the P wave has been found and is interpreted in terms of a vertical travel time in a surficial resonant layer (∼ 1 km thick) over a halfspace. The attenuation maps, the interpretation of the resonant frequencies, and the additional information provided by the P-wave velocity suggest the presence of a circular structure in the area. Not only does the distribution of the thickness of the resonant layer (obtained through the estimation of the contribution of different harmonics) show the circular structure, but it also agrees with the presence of a thin layer of lighter sediments, determined by means of a microgravimetric study, and with the total magnetic map, previously obtained for this area. The results of the azimuthal variation provide new evidence of the structure that can be used to improve the knowledge of the area.
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    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 329-340 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Maximum entropy spectral analysis, high latitude indices, MILDCAAs, horizontal (H) component, vertical (Z) component.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —Maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) has been applied to 24 series of hourly daily data and only one daily mean series for the horizontal (H) and vertical (Z) components of the geomagnetic field for the year 1983 as observed at Narssarssuaq, Greenland (71.2°N, 36.7°E) (gm coordinate). The method has isolated some prominent medium frequency signal components. The maximum peaks for H are at 06 hr (0.174 cycles per day (cpd), 3.2 × 104 db) and 08 hr (0.09 cpd, 3.5 × 104 db). Similarly, the maximum peak in Z is observed at 04 hr (0.114 cpd, 5.7 × 104 db). The spectral results for the daily-mean data indicate periods are greater than two days, with 178.5 days (nearly semiannual) being common to both H and Z. Other harmonics have been found for all the series of H and Z components which are mainly caused by the "Effective Period", i.e., the period produced by the combined effect of the sunspot numbers and the sun’s rotation period. Such frequencies correspond very well with those found in the geomagnetic indices A p  , C p and AE. This suggests that the disturbance transient variations are caused by viscous interaction of the solar energies emanating from sunspot regions with the outermost magnetospheric boundary which, in turn, influences the magnetosphere-iono sphere coupling and produces the medium intensity long-duration continuous auroral activities (MILD CAAs) over high latitude regions. Thus, the higher latitude geomagnetic activities are nothing but the "effective period driven MILDCAAs" having a recurrence tendency of 27/n, where n is an integer.
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  • 98
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    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 150 (1997), S. 305-327 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Historical earthquakes, macroseismic data, pictorial data, earthquake catalogues, seismicity re-evaluation.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract. —Written and printed historical records and reports have always been the main sources of macroseismic information for seismologists re-evaluating the earthquakes of the past, and hence for the authors of regional historical earthquake catalogues. The most recent attempts to re-assess the seismicity of European regions have also looked for new, not previously utilised, complementary macroseismic data, with a view to allowing new and improved assessments to be made of historical earthquake intensities. In the present paper an attempt is made to test the utility of historical pictorial material from this point of view.
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  • 99
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    Pure and applied geophysics 149 (1997), S. 115-127 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract It is widely acknowledged that the 1964 Niigata, Japan, earthquake is associated with the preseismic anomalous crustal movement detected by repetition of precise levelings, while some doubts have been raised on the validity of reported precursory movement. Validity of the crustal movement is tested by an analysis of tidal data. When we are able to deduce crustal movement referring to the determined mean sea level, we can discuss the absolute crustal movement. Tidal data along the Japan Sea coast of northeast Japan are analyzed by the method developed inTsumura (1963, 1970) for the period from 1955 to 1986. The final results at tidal station, Nezugaseki, indicate clearly the steady-state movement during 1955–1958, 4 cm of abnormal upheaval from 1959–1964, 20 cm of coseismic abrupt subsidence, and 4 cm of postseismic rapid subsidence, and finally very gradual subsidence. Thus the present results support the idea of the typical pattern of the seismic crustal movement, including the precursory movement.
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  • 100
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Earthquakes ; hydrogeology ; earthquake prediction ; crustal deformation ; aquifers ; earth tides ; strain ; hydraulic diffusivity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Two of the four wells monitored near Parkfield, California, during 1985 showed water level rises beginning three days before theM w 6.1 Kettleman Hills earthquake. In one of these wells, the 3.0 cm rise was nearly unique in five years of water level data. However, in the other well, which showed a 3.8 cm rise, many other changes of comparable size have been observed. Both wells that did not display pre-earthquake rises tap partially confined aquifers that cannot sustain pressure changes due to tectonic strain having periods longer than several days. We evaluate the effect of partial aquifer confinement on the ability of these four wells to display water level changes in response to aquifer strain. Although the vertical hydraulic diffusivities cannot be determined uniquely, we can find a value of diffusivity for each site that is consistent with the site's tidal and barometric responses as well as with the rate of partial recovery of the coseismic water level drops. Furthermore, the diffusivity for one well is high enough to explain why the preseismic rise could not have been detected there. For the fourth well, the diffusivity is high enough to have reduced the size of the preseismic signal as much as 50%, although it should still have been detectable. Imperfect confinement cannot explain the persistent water level changes in the two partially confined aquifers, but it does show that they were not due to volume strain. The pre-earthquake water level rises may have been precursors to the Kettleman Hills earthquake. If so, they probably were not caused by accelerating slip over the part of the fault plane that ruptured in that earthquake because they are of opposite sign to the observed coseismic water level drops.
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