ALBERT

Description: Biogeochemical models, capturing the major feedbacks of the pelagic ecosystem of the world ocean, are today often embedded into Earth system models which are increasingly used for decision making regarding climate policies. These models contain poorly constrained parameters (e.g., maximum phytoplankton growth rate), which are typically adjusted until the model shows reasonable behavior. Systematic approaches determine these parameters by minimizing the misfit between the model and observational data. In most common model approaches, however, the underlying functions mimicking the biogeochemical processes are nonlinear and non-convex. Thus, systematic optimization algorithms are likely to get trapped in local minima and might lead to non-optimal results. To judge the quality of an obtained parameter estimate, we propose determining a preferably large lower bound for the global optimum that is relatively easy to obtain and that will help to assess the quality of an optimum, generated by an optimization algorithm. Due to the unavoidable noise component in all observations, such a lower bound is typically larger than zero. We suggest deriving such lower bounds based on typical properties of biogeochemical models (e.g., a limited number of extremes and a bounded time derivative). We illustrate the applicability of the method with two real-world examples. The first example uses real-world observations of the Baltic Sea in a box model setup. The second example considers a three-dimensional coupled ocean circulation model in combination with satellite chlorophyll a.

Description: The Sumatran subduction zone exhibits strong seismic and tsunamogenic potential with the prominent examples of the 2004, 2005 and 2007 earthquakes. Here, we invert travel time data of local earthquakes for vp and vp/vs velocity models of the central Sumatran forearc. Data were acquired by an amphibious seismometer network consisting of 52 land stations and 10 ocean bottom seismometers located on a segment of the Sumatran subduction zone that had not ruptured in a great earthquake since 1797 but witnessed recent ruptures to the north in 2005 (Nias earthquake, Mw = 8.7) and to the south in 2007 (Bengkulu earthquake, Mw = 8.5). 2D and 3D vp velocity anomalies reveal the downgoing slab and the sedimentary basins. Although the seismicity pattern in the study area appears to be strongly influenced by the obliquely subducting Investigator Fracture Zone to at least 200 km depth, the 3D velocity model shows prevailing trench parallel structures at depths of the plate interface. The tomographic model suggests a thinned crust below the basin east of the forearc islands (Nias, Pulau Batu, Siberut) at ~ 180 km distance to the trench. Vp velocities beneath the magmatic arc and the Sumatran fault zone SFZ are around 5 km/s at 10 km depth and the vp/vs ratios in the uppermost 10 km are low, indicating the presence of felsic lithologies typical for continental crust. We find moderately elevated vp/vs values of 1.85 at ~ 150 km distance to the trench in the region of the Mentawai fault. Vp/vs ratios suggest absence of large scale alteration of the mantle wedge and might explain why the seismogenic plate interface (observed as a locked zone from geodetic data) extends below the continental forearc Moho in Sumatra. Reduced vp velocities beneath the forearc basin covering the region between Mentawai Islands and the Sumatra mainland possibly reflect a reduced thickness of the overriding crust.

Description: In this study ship- and AUV-based multibeam data from the German Mn-nodule license area in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ; eastern Pacific) are linked to ground truth data from optical imaging. Photographs obtained by an AUV enable semi-quantitative assessments of nodule coverage at a spatial resolution in the range of meters. Together with high resolution AUV bathymetry this revealed a correlation of small-scale terrain variations (〈 5 m horizontally, 〈 1 m vertically) with nodule abundance. In the presented data set, increased nodule coverage could be correlated with slopes 〉 1.8° and concave terrain. On a more regional scale, factors such as the geological setting (existence of horst and graben structures, sediment thickness, outcropping basement) and influence of bottom currents seem to play an essential role for the spatial variation of nodule abundance and the related hard substrate habitat. AUV imagery was also successfully employed to map the distribution of re-settled sediment following a disturbance and sediment cloud generation during a sampling deployment of an Epibenthic Sledge. Data from before and after the "disturbance" allows a direct assessment of the impact. Automated image processing analyzed the nodule coverage at the seafloor, revealing nodule blanketing by resettling of suspended sediment within 16 hours after the disturbance. The visually detectable impact was spatially limited to a maximum of 100m distance from the disturbance track, downstream of the bottom water current. A correlation with high resolution AUV bathymetry reveals that the blanketing pattern varies in extent by tens of meters, strictly following the bathymetry, even in areas of only slightly undulating seafloor (〈 1 m vertical change). These results highlight the importance of detailed terrain knowledge when engaging in resource assessment studies for nodule abundance estimates and defining minable areas. At the same time, it shows the importance of high resolution mapping for detailed benthic habitat studies that show a heterogeneity at scales of 10 m to 100 m. Terrain knowledge is also needed to determine the scale of the impact by seafloor sediment blanketing during mining-operations.

Description: Climate-driven changes in environmental conditions have significant and complex effects on marine ecosystems. Variability in phytoplankton elements and biochemicals can be important for global ocean biogeochemistry and ecological functions, while there is currently limited understanding on how elements and biochemicals respond to the changing environments in key coccolithophore species such as Emiliania huxleyi. We investigated responses of elemental stoichiometry and fatty acids (FAs) in a strain of E. huxleyi under three temperatures (12, 18 and 24 °C), three N : P supply ratios (molar ratios 10:1, 24:1 and 63:1) and two pCO2 levels (560 and 2400 µatm). Overall, C : N : P stoichiometry showed the most pronounced response to N : P supply ratios, with high ratios of particulate organic carbon vs. particulate organic nitrogen (POC : PON) and low ratios of PON vs. particulate organic phosphorus (PON : POP) in low-N media, and high POC : POP and PON : POP in low-P media. The ratio of particulate inorganic carbon vs. POC (PIC : POC) and polyunsaturated fatty acid proportions strongly responded to temperature and pCO2, both being lower under high pCO2 and higher with warming. We observed synergistic interactions between warming and nutrient deficiency (and high pCO2) on elemental cellular contents and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) proportion in most cases, indicating the enhanced effect of warming under nutrient deficiency (and high pCO2). Our results suggest differential sensitivity of elements and FAs to the changes in temperature, nutrient availability and pCO2 in E. huxleyi, which is to some extent unique compared to non-calcifying algal classes. Thus, simultaneous changes of elements and FAs should be considered when predicting future roles of E. huxleyi in the biotic-mediated connection between biogeochemical cycles, ecological functions and climate change.

Description: Although mesoscale ocean eddies are ubiquitous in the Southern Ocean, their average regional and seasonal association with phytoplankton has not been quantified systematically yet. To this end, we identify over 100000 mesoscale eddies with diameters of 50km and more in the Southern Ocean and determine the associated phytoplankton biomass anomalies using satellite-based chlorophyll-a (Chl) as a proxy. The mean Chl anomalies, δChl, associated with these eddies, comprising the upper echelon of the oceanic mesoscale, exceed ±10% over wide regions. The structure of these anomalies is largely zonal, with cyclonic, thermocline lifted, eddies having positive anomalies in the subtropical waters north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and negative anomalies along its main flow path. The pattern is similar, but reversed for anticyclonic, thermocline deepened eddies. The seasonality of δChl is weak in subtropical waters, but pronounced along the ACC, featuring a seasonal sign switch. The spatial structure and seasonality of the mesoscale δChl can be explained largely by lateral advection, especially local eddy-stirring. A prominent exception is the ACC region in winter, where δChl is consistent with a modulation of phytoplankton light exposure caused by an eddy-induced modification of the mixed layer depth. The clear impact of mesoscale eddies on phytoplankton may implicate a downstream effect on Southern Ocean biogeochemical properties, such as mode water nutrient contents.

Description: Benthic foraminifera from Bottsand coastal lagoon, western Baltic Sea, have been studied since the mid-1960s. They were monitored annually in late autumn since 2003 at the terminal ditch of the lagoon. There were 12 different species recognised, of which three have not been recorded during earlier investigations. Dominant species showed strong interannual fluctuations and a steady increase in population densities over the last decade. Elphidium incertum, a stenohaline species of the Baltic deep water fauna, colonised the Bottsand lagoon in 2016, most likely during a period of salinities 〉19 units and water temperatures of 18 °C on average in early autumn. The high salinities probably triggered their germination from a propagule bank in the ditch bottom sediment. The new E. incertum population showed densities higher by an order of magnitude than those of the indigenous species. The latter did not decline, revealing that E. incertum used another food source or occupied a different microhabitat. Elphidium incertum survived transient periods of lower salinities in late autumn 2017, though with reduced abundances, and became a regular faunal constituent at the Bottsand lagoon.

Description: The quantitative reconstruction of past seawater salinity has yet to be achieved and the search for a direct and independent salinity proxy is ongoing. Recent culture and field studies show a significant positive correlation of Na/Ca with salinity in benthic and planktonic foraminiferal calcite. For accurate paleoceanographic reconstructions, consistent and reliable calibrations are necessary, which are still missing. In order to assess the reliability of foraminiferal Na/Ca as a direct proxy for seawater salinity, this study presents electron microprobe Na/Ca data, measured on cultured specimens of Trilobatus sacculifer. The culture experiments were conducted over a wide salinity range of 26 to 45, while temperature was kept constant. To further understand potential controlling factors of Na incorporation, measurements were also performed on foraminifera cultured at various temperatures in the range of 19.5 °C to 29.5 °C under constant salinity conditions. Foraminiferal Na/Ca ratios positively correlate with seawater salinity (Na/Caforam = 0.97 + 0.115 ⋅ Salinity, R = 0.97, p 〈 0.005). Temperature on the other hand exhibits no statistically significant relationship with Na/Ca ratios indicating salinity to be the dominant factor controlling Na incorporation. The culturing results are corroborated by measurements on T. sacculifer from Caribbean and Gulf of Guinea surface sediments. In conclusion, planktonic foraminiferal Na/Ca can be applied as a reliable proxy for reconstructing sea surface salinities, albeit species-specific calibrations might be necessary.

Description: We report here the results of total mercury (HgT) determinations along the 2014 Geotraces Geovide cruise (GA01 transect) in the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) from Lisbon (Portugal) to the coast of Labrador (Canada). HgT concentrations in unfiltered samples (HgTUNF) were log-normally distributed and ranged between 0.16 and 1.54 pmol L−1, with a geometric mean of 0.51 pmol L−1 for the 535 samples analysed. The dissolved fraction (〈 0.45 µm) of HgT (HgTF), determined on 141 samples, averaged 78 % of the HgTUNF for the entire data set, 84 % for open seawaters (below 100 m) and 91 % if the Labrador Sea data are excluded, where the primary production was high (with a winter convection down to 1400 m). HgTUNF concentrations increased eastwards and with depth from Greenland to Europe and from subsurface to bottom waters. The HgTUNF concentrations were similarly low in the subpolar gyre waters ( ∼  0.45 pmol L−1), whereas they exceeded 0.60 pmol L−1 in the subtropical gyre waters. The HgTUNF distribution mirrored that of dissolved oxygen concentration, with highest concentration levels associated with oxygen-depleted zones. The relationship between HgTF and the apparent oxygen utilization confirms the nutrient-like behaviour of Hg in the NA. An extended optimum multiparameter analysis allowed us to characterize HgTUNF concentrations in the different source water types (SWTs) present along the transect. The distribution pattern of HgTUNF, modelled by the mixing of SWTs, show Hg enrichment in Mediterranean waters and North East Atlantic Deep Water and low concentrations in young waters formed in the subpolar gyre and Nordic seas. The change in anthropogenic Hg concentrations in the Labrador Sea Water during its eastward journey suggests a continuous decrease in Hg content in this water mass over the last decades. Calculation of the water transport driven by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation across the Portugal–Greenland transect indicates northward Hg transport within the upper limb and southward Hg transport within the lower limb, with resulting net northward transport of about 97.2 kmol yr−1.

Description: The chemistry–climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ contains a detailed representation of tropospheric and stratospheric reactive chemistry and state-of-the-art parameterizations of aerosols using either a modal scheme (M7) or a bin scheme (SALSA). This article describes and evaluates the model version ECHAM6.3-HAM2.3-MOZ1.0 with a focus on the tropospheric gas-phase chemistry. A 10-year model simulation was performed to test the stability of the model and provide data for its evaluation. The comparison to observations concentrates on the year 2008 and includes total column observations of ozone and CO from IASI and OMI, Aura MLS observations of temperature, HNO3, ClO, and O3 for the evaluation of polar stratospheric processes, an ozonesonde climatology, surface ozone observations from the TOAR database, and surface CO data from the Global Atmosphere Watch network. Global budgets of ozone, OH, NOx, aerosols, clouds, and radiation are analyzed and compared to the literature. ECHAM-HAMMOZ performs well in many aspects. However, in the base simulation, lightning NOx emissions are very low, and the impact of the heterogeneous reaction of HNO3 on dust and sea salt aerosol is too strong. Sensitivity simulations with increased lightning NOx or modified heterogeneous chemistry deteriorate the comparison with observations and yield excessively large ozone budget terms and too much OH. We hypothesize that this is an impact of potential issues with tropical convection in the ECHAM model.

Description: Benthic microbial methanogenesis is a known source of methane in marine systems. In most sediments, the majority of methanogenesis is located below the sulfate-reducing zone, as sulfate reducers outcompete methanogens for the major substrates hydrogen and acetate. The coexistence of methanogenesis and sulfate reduction has been shown before and is possible through the usage of noncompetitive substrates by methanogens such as methanol or methylated amines. However, knowledge about the magnitude, seasonality, and environmental controls of this noncompetitive methane production is sparse. In the present study, the presence of methanogenesis within the sulfate reduction zone (SRZ methanogenesis) was investigated in sediments (0–30 cm below seafloor, cm b.s.f.) of the seasonally hypoxic Eckernförde Bay in the southwestern Baltic Sea. Water column parameters such as oxygen, temperature, and salinity together with porewater geochemistry and benthic methanogenesis rates were determined in the sampling area "Boknis Eck" quarterly from March 2013 to September 2014 to investigate the effect of seasonal environmental changes on the rate and distribution of SRZ methanogenesis, to estimate its potential contribution to benthic methane emissions, and to identify the potential methanogenic groups responsible for SRZ methanogenesis. The metabolic pathway of methanogenesis in the presence or absence of sulfate reducers, which after the addition of a noncompetitive substrate was studied in four experimental setups: (1) unaltered sediment batch incubations (net methanogenesis), (2) 14C-bicarbonate labeling experiments (hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis), (3) manipulated experiments with the addition of either molybdate (sulfate reducer inhibitor), 2-bromoethanesulfonate (methanogen inhibitor), or methanol (noncompetitive substrate, potential methanogenesis), and (4) the addition of 13C-labeled methanol (potential methylotrophic methanogenesis). After incubation with methanol, molecular analyses were conducted to identify key functional methanogenic groups during methylotrophic methanogenesis. To also compare the magnitudes of SRZ methanogenesis with methanogenesis below the sulfate reduction zone (〉 30 cm b.s.f.), hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis was determined by 14C-bicarbonate radiotracer incubation in samples collected in September 2013. SRZ methanogenesis changed seasonally in the upper 30 cm b.s.f. with rates increasing from March (0.2 nmol cm−3 d−1) to November (1.3 nmol cm−3 d−1) 2013 and March (0.2 nmol cm−3 d−1) to September (0.4 nmol cm−3 d−1) 2014. Its magnitude and distribution appeared to be controlled by organic matter availability, C / N, temperature, and oxygen in the water column, revealing higher rates in the warm, stratified, hypoxic seasons (September–November) compared to the colder, oxygenated seasons (March–June) of each year. The majority of SRZ methanogenesis was likely driven by the usage of noncompetitive substrates (e.g., methanol and methylated compounds) to avoid competition with sulfate reducers, as was indicated by the 1000–3000-fold increase in potential methanogenesis activity observed after methanol addition. Accordingly, competitive hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis increased in the sediment only below the depth of sulfate penetration (〉 30 cm b.s.f.). Members of the family Methanosarcinaceae, which are known for methylotrophic methanogenesis, were detected by PCR using Methanosarcinaceae-specific primers and are likely to be responsible for the observed SRZ methanogenesis. The present study indicates that SRZ methanogenesis is an important component of the benthic methane budget and carbon cycling in Eckernförde Bay. Although its contributions to methane emissions from the sediment into the water column are probably minor, SRZ methanogenesis could directly feed into methane oxidation above the sulfate–methane transition zone.

Description: Igneous intrusions in sedimentary basins may have a profound effect on the thermal structure and physical properties of the hosting sedimentary rocks. These include mechanical effects such as deformation and uplift of sedimentary layers, generation of overpressure, mineral reactions and porosity evolution, and fracturing and vent formation following devolatilization reactions and the generation of CO2 and CH4. The gas generation and subsequent migration and venting may have contributed to several of the past climatic changes such as the end-Permian event and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Additionally, the generation and expulsion of hydrocarbons and cracking of pre-existing oil reservoirs around a hot magmatic intrusion is of significant interest to the energy industry. In this paper, we present a user-friendly 1D FEM based tool, SILLi, which calculates the thermal effects of sill intrusions on the enclosing sedimentary stratigraphy. The model is accompanied by three case studies of sills emplaced in two different sedimentary basins, the Karoo Basin in South Africa and the Vøring Basin offshore Norway. Input data for the model is the present-day well log or sedimentary column with an Excel input file and includes rock parameters such as thermal conductivity, total organic carbon (TOC) content, porosity, and latent heats. The model accounts for sedimentation and burial based on a rate calculated by the sedimentary layer thickness and age. Erosion of the sedimentary column is also included to account for realistic basin evolution. Multiple sills can be emplaced within the system with varying ages. The emplacement of a sill occurs instantaneously. The model can be applied to volcanic sedimentary basins occurring globally. The model output includes the thermal evolution of the sedimentary column through time, and the changes that take place following sill emplacement such as TOC changes, thermal maturity, and the amount of organic and carbonate-derived CO2. The TOC and vitrinite results can be readily benchmarked within the tool to present-day values measured within the sedimentary column. This allows the user to determine the conditions required to obtain results that match observables and leads to a better understanding of metamorphic processes in sedimentary basins.

Description: The Stratospheric Sulfur and its Role in Climate (SSiRC) interactive stratospheric aerosol model intercomparison project (ISA-MIP) explores uncertainties in the processes that connect volcanic emission of sulphur gas species and the radiative forcing associated with the resulting enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer. The central aim of ISA-MIP is to constrain and improve interactive stratospheric aerosol models and reduce uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing by comparing results of standardized model experiments with a range of observations. In this paper we present 4 co-ordinated inter-model experiments designed to investigate key processes which influence the formation and temporal development of stratospheric aerosol in different time periods of the observational record. The "Background" (BG) experiment will focus on microphysics and transport processes under volcanically quiescent conditions, when the stratospheric aerosol is controlled by the transport of aerosols and their precursors from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The "Transient Aerosol Record" (TAR) experiment will explore the role of small- to moderate-magnitude volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic sulphur emissions and transport processes over the period 1998–2012 and their role in the warming hiatus. Two further experiments will investigate the stratospheric sulphate aerosol evolution after major volcanic eruptions. The "Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment" (HErSEA) experiment will focus on the uncertainty in the initial emission of recent large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, while the "Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple models" (PoEMS) experiment will provide a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of the radiative forcing from the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption.

Description: Shorelines exhibit long-range dependence (LRD) and have been shown in some environments to be described in the wavenumber domain by a power law characteristic of scale-independence. Recent evidence suggests that the geomorphology of barrier islands can, however, exhibit scale dependence as a result of systematic variations of the underlying framework geology. The LRD of framework geology, which influences island geomorphology and its response to storms and sea level rise, has not been previously examined. Electromagnetic induction (EMI) surveys conducted along Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS), Texas, USA, reveal that the EMI apparent conductivity σa signal and, by inference, the framework geology exhibits LRD at scales up to 101 to 102 km. Our study demonstrates the utility of describing EMI σa and LiDAR spatial series by a fractional auto-regressive integrated moving average process that specifically models LRD. This method offers a robust and compact way for quantifying the geological variations along a barrier island shoreline using three parameters (p,d,q). We discuss how ARIMA (0,d,0) models that use a single parameter d provide a quantitative measure for determining free and forced barrier island evolutionary behavior across different scales. Statistical analyses at regional, intermediate, and local scales suggest that the geologic framework within an area of paleo-channels exhibits a first order control on dune height. The exchange of sediment amongst nearshore, beach and dune in areas outside this region are scale-independent, implying that barrier islands like PAIS exhibit a combination of free and forced behaviors that affect the response of the island to sea level rise.

Description: The influence of mesoscale eddies on the flow field and the water masses, especially the oxygen distribution of the eastern tropical South Pacific, is investigated from a mooring, float, and satellite data set. Two anticyclonic (ACE1/2), one mode-water (MWE), and one cyclonic eddy (CE) are identified and followed in detail with satellite data on their westward transition with velocities of 3.2 to 6.0cms−1 from their generation region, the shelf of the Peruvian and Chilean upwelling regime, across the Stratus Ocean Reference Station (ORS;  ∼ 20°S, 85°W) to their decaying region far west in the oligotrophic open ocean. The ORS is located in the transition zone between the oxygen minimum zone and the well oxygenated South Pacific subtropical gyre. Velocity, hydrographic, and oxygen measurements at the mooring show the impact of eddies on the weak flow region of the eastern tropical South Pacific. Strong anomalies are related to the passage of eddies and are not associated with a seasonal signal in the open ocean. The mass transport of the four observed eddies across 85°W is between 1.1 and 1.8Sv. The eddy type-dependent available heat, salt, and oxygen anomalies are 8.1×1018J (ACE2), 1.0×1018J (MWE), and −8.9×1018J (CE) for heat; 25.2×1010kg (ACE2), −3.1×1010kg (MWE), and −41.5×1010kg (CE) for salt; and −3.6×1016µmol (ACE2), −3.5×1016µmol (MWE), and −6.5×1016µmol (CE) for oxygen showing a strong imbalance between anticyclones and cyclones for salt transports probably due to seasonal variability in water mass properties in the formation region of the eddies. Heat, salt, and oxygen fluxes out of the coastal region across the ORS region in the oligotrophic open South Pacific are estimated based on these eddy anomalies and on eddy statistics (gained out of 23 years of satellite data). Furthermore, four profiling floats were trapped in the ACE2 during its westward propagation between the formation region and the open ocean, which allows for conclusions on lateral mixing of water mass properties with time between the core of the eddy and the surrounding water. The strongest lateral mixing was found between the seasonal thermocline and the eddy core during the first half of the eddy lifetime.

Description: The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 "year without a summer", and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyse both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, al-though there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kgkm-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kgkm-2, as compared to the mean ice-corederived estimates of roughly 50 kgkm-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

Description: Oceanic very short-lived substances (VSLSs), such as bromoform (CHBr3), contribute to stratospheric halogen loading and, thus, to ozone depletion. However, the amount, timing, and region of bromine delivery to the stratosphere through one of the main entrance gates, the Indian summer monsoon circulation, are still uncertain. In this study, we created two bromoform emission inventories with monthly resolution for the tropical Indian Ocean and west Pacific based on new in situ bromoform measurements and novel ocean biogeochemistry modeling. The mass transport and atmospheric mixing ratios of bromoform were modeled for the year 2014 with the particle dispersion model FLEXPART driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis. We compare results between two emission scenarios: (1) monthly averaged and (2) annually averaged emissions. Both simulations reproduce the atmospheric distribution of bromoform from ship- and aircraft-based observations in the boundary layer and upper troposphere above the Indian Ocean reasonably well. Using monthly resolved emissions, the main oceanic source regions for the stratosphere include the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal in boreal summer and the tropical west Pacific Ocean in boreal winter. The main stratospheric injection in boreal summer occurs over the southern tip of India associated with the high local oceanic sources and strong convection of the summer monsoon. In boreal winter more bromoform is entrained over the west Pacific than over the Indian Ocean. The annually averaged stratospheric injection of bromoform is in the same range whether using monthly averaged or annually averaged emissions in our Lagrangian calculations. However, monthly averaged emissions result in the highest mixing ratios within the Asian monsoon anticyclone in boreal summer and above the central Indian Ocean in boreal winter, while annually averaged emissions display a maximum above the west Indian Ocean in boreal spring. In the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone bromoform atmospheric mixing ratios vary by up to 50% between using monthly averaged and annually averaged oceanic emissions. Our results underline that the seasonal and regional stratospheric bromine injection from the tropical Indian Ocean and west Pacific critically depend on the seasonality and spatial distribution of the VSLS emissions.

Description: The calcareous tubeworm Spirorbis spirorbis is a widespread serpulid species in the Baltic Sea, where it commonly grows as an epibiont on brown macroalgae (genus Fucus). It lives within a Mg-calcite shell and could be affected by ocean acidification and temperature rise induced by the predicted future atmospheric CO2 increase. However, Spirorbis tubes grow in a chemically modified boundary layer around the algae, which may mitigate acidification. In order to investigate how increasing temperature and rising pCO2 may influence S. spirorbis shell growth we carried out four seasonal experiments in the Kiel Outdoor Benthocosms at elevated pCO2 and temperature conditions. Compared to laboratory batch culture experiments the benthocosm approach provides a better representation of natural conditions for physical and biological ecosystem parameters, including seasonal variations. We find that growth rates of S. spirorbis are significantly controlled by ontogenetic and seasonal effects. The length of the newly grown tube is inversely related to the initial diameter of the shell. Our study showed no significant difference of the growth rates between ambient atmospheric and elevated (1100 ppm) pCO2 conditions. No influence of daily average CaCO3 saturation state on the growth rates of S. spirorbis was observed. We found, however, net growth of the shells even in temporarily undersaturated bulk solutions, under conditions that concurrently favoured selective shell surface dissolution. The results suggest an overall resistance of S. spirorbis growth to acidification levels predicted for the year 2100 in the Baltic Sea. In contrast, S. spirorbis did not survive at mean seasonal temperatures exceeding 24 °C during the summer experiments. In the autumn experiments at ambient pCO2, the growth rates of juvenile S. spirorbis were higher under elevated temperature conditions. The results reveal that S. spirorbis may prefer moderately warmer conditions during their early life stages but will suffer from an excessive temperature increase and from increasing shell corrosion as a consequence of progressing ocean acidification.

Description: n the Paris Agreement in 2015 countries agreed on holding global mean surface air warming to "well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial" levels, but the emission reduction pledges under that agreement are not ambitious enough to meet this target. Therefore, the question arises of whether restoring global warming to this target after exceeding it by artificially removing CO2 from the atmosphere is possible. One important aspect is the reversibility of ocean heat uptake and associated sea level rise, which have very long (centennial to millennial) response timescales. In this study the response of sea level rise due to thermal expansion to a 1% yearly increase of atmospheric CO2 up to a quadrupling of the pre-industrial concentration followed by a 1% yearly decline back to the pre-industrial CO2 concentration is examined using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We find that global mean thermosteric sea level (GMTSL) continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to pre-industrial levels for over 1000 years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration. This finding is independent of the strength of vertical sub-grid-scale ocean mixing implemented in the model. Furthermore, GMTSL rises faster than it declines in response to a symmetric rise and decline in atmospheric CO2 concentration partly because the deep ocean continues to warm for centuries after atmospheric CO2 returns to the pre-industrial concentration. Both GMTSL rise and decline rates increase with increasing vertical ocean mixing. Exceptions from this behaviour arise if the overturning circulations in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean intensify beyond pre-industrial levels in model versions with lower vertical mixing, which leads to rapid cooling of the deep ocean.

Description: The island of South Georgia is situated in the iron (Fe) depleted Antarctic Circumpolar Current of the Southern Ocean. Iron emanating from its shelf system fuels large phytoplankton blooms downstream of the island, but the actual supply mechanisms are unclear. To address this we present the first inventory of Fe, manganese (Mn) and aluminium (Al) in shelf sediments, pore waters and the water column in the vicinity of South Georgia, alongside data on zooplankton-mediated Fe cycling processes. The seafloor sediments were the main particulate Fe source to shelf bottom waters as indicated by Fe / Mn and Fe / Al ratios for shelf sediments and suspended particles in the water column. Less than 1 % of the total particulate Fe pool was leachable surface adsorbed (labile) Fe, and therefore potentially available to organisms. Pore waters formed the primary dissolved Fe (DFe) source to shelf bottom waters supplying 0.1–4 μmol DFe m−2 d−1. However, only 0.41 ± 0.26 μmol DFe m−2 d−1 was transferred to the surface mixed layer by vertical diffusive and advective mixing. Other trace metal sources to surface waters included glacial flour released by melting glaciers and zooplankton excretion processes. On average 6.5 ± 8.2 μmol m−2 d−1 of labile particulate Fe was supplied to the surface mixed layer via krill faecal pellets, with further DFe released by krill at around 1.1 ± 2.2 μmol m−2 d−1. The faecal pellets released by krill constituted of seafloor derived lithogenic material and settled algae debris, in addition to freshly ingested suspended phytoplankton specimen. The phytoplankton Fe requirement in the blooms ca. 1250 km downstream the island of South Georgia was 0.33 ± 0.11 μmol m−2 d−1, with the DFe supply by horizontal/vertical mixing, deep winter mixing and via aeolian dust estimated as ~ 0.12 μmol m−2 d−1. We suggest that additionally required DFe was provided through recycling of biogenically stored Fe following luxury Fe uptake by phytoplankton on the Fe rich shelf. This process would allow Fe to be retained in the surface mixed layer of waters downstream of South Georgia through continuous recycling and biological uptake, and facilitate the large scale blooms.

Description: In estuarine coastal systems such as the Baltic Sea, mussels suffer from low salinity which limits their distribution. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to cause further desalination which will lead to local extinctions of mussels in the low saline areas. It is commonly accepted that mussel distribution is limited by osmotic stress. However, along the salinity gradient environmental conditions for biomineralization are successively becoming more adverse as a result of reduced [Ca2+] and dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) availability. In larvae, calcification is an essential process starting during early development with formation of the prodissoconch I (PD I) shell which is completed under optimal conditions within 2 days. Experimental manipulations of seawater [Ca2+] start to impair PD I formation in Mytilus larvae at concentrations below 3 mM, which corresponds to conditions present in the Baltic at salinities below 8 g kg-1. In addition, lowering dissolved inorganic carbon to critical concentrations (〈 1 mM) similarly affected PD I size which was well correlated with calculated ΩAragonite and [Ca2+][HCO3-]/[H+] in all treatments. Comparing results for larvae from the western Baltic with a population from the central Baltic revealed significantly higher tolerance of PD I formation to lowered [Ca2+] and [Ca2+][HCO3-]/[H+] in the low saline adapted population. This may result from genetic adaptation to the more adverse environmental conditions prevailing in the low saline areas of the Baltic. The combined effects of lowered [Ca2+] and adverse carbonate chemistry represent major limiting factors for bivalve calcification and can thereby contribute to distribution limits of mussels in the Baltic Sea.

Description: The distribution of dissolved aluminium (dAl) in the water column of the North Atlantic and Labrador Sea was studied along GEOTRACES section GA01 to unravel the sources and sinks of this element. Surface water dAl concentrations were low (median of 2.5 nM) due to low aerosol deposition and removal by phytoplankton. However, surface water dAl concentrations were enhanced on the Iberian and Greenland shelves (up to 30.9 nM) due to continental inputs (rivers, glacial flour and ice melt). A negative correlation was observed between dAl in surface waters and primary production, phytoplankton community structure and biogenic opal production. The abundance of diatoms exerted a significant (p 〈 0.01) control on the surface particulate Al (pAl) to dAl ratios by decreasing dAl levels and increasing pAl levels. Dissolved Al concentrations generally increased with depth and correlated strongly with silicate (R2 〉 0.76) west of the Iberian Basin, suggesting net release of dAl at depth during remineralization of sinking biogenic opal containing particles. Enrichment of dAl at near-bottom depths was observed due to resuspension of sediments near the sediment-water interface. The highest dAl (up to 38.7 nM) concentrations were observed in Mediterranean Overflow Waters which act as a major source of dAl to mid depth waters of the eastern North Atlantic. This study clearly shows that the vertical and lateral distribution of dAl in the North Atlantic differs when compared to other regions of the North Atlantic and global ocean due to the large spatial differences both in the main source of Al, atmospheric deposition, and the main sink for Al, particle scavenging, between different oceanic regions.

Description: Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) offer unique possibilities for exploring the deep seafloor in high resolution over large areas. We highlight the results from AUV-based multibeam echosounder (MBES) bathymetry / backscatter and digital optical imagery from the DISCOL area acquired during research cruise SO242 in 2015. AUV bathymetry reveals a morphologically complex seafloor with rough terrain in seamount areas and low-relief variations in sedimentary abyssal plains which are covered in Mn-nodules. Backscatter provides valuable information about the seafloor type and particularly about the influence of Mn-nodules on the response of the transmitted acoustic signal. Primarily, Mn-nodule abundances were determined by means of automated nodule detection on AUV seafloor imagery and nodule metrics such as nodules m−2 were calculated automatically for each image allowing further spatial analysis within GIS in conjunction with the acoustic data. AUV-based backscatter was clustered using both raw data and corrected backscatter mosaics. In total, two unsupervised methods and one machine learning approach were utilized for backscatter classification and Mn-nodule predictive mapping. Bayesian statistical analysis was applied to the raw backscatter values resulting in six acoustic classes. In addition, Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis (ISODATA) clustering was applied to the backscatter mosaic and its statistics (mean, mode, 10th, and 90th quantiles) suggesting an optimum of six clusters as well. Part of the nodule metrics data was combined with bathymetry, bathymetric derivatives and backscatter statistics for predictive mapping of the Mn-nodule density using a Random Forest classifier. Results indicate that acoustic classes, predictions from Random Forest model and image-based nodule metrics show very similar spatial distribution patterns with acoustic classes hence capturing most of the fine-scale Mn-nodule variability. Backscatter classes reflect areas with homogeneous nodule density. A strong influence of mean backscatter, fine scale BPI and concavity of the bathymetry on nodule prediction is seen. These observations imply that nodule densities are generally affected by local micro-bathymetry in a way that is not yet fully understood. However, it can be concluded that the spatial occurrence of Mn-covered areas can be sufficiently analysed by means of acoustic classification and multivariate predictive mapping allowing to determine the spatial nodule density in a much more robust way than previously possible.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

Description: A long-term mean flow field for the subpolar North Atlantic region with a horizontal resolution of approximately 25km is created by gridding Argo-derived velocity vectors using two different topography-following interpolation schemes. The 10-day float displacements in the typical drift depths of 1000 to 1500m represent the flow in the Labrador Sea Water density range. Both mapping algorithms separate the flow field into potential vorticity (PV) conserving, i.e., topography-following contribution and a deviating part, which we define as the eddy contribution. To verify the significance of the separation, we compare the mean flow and the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), derived from both mapping algorithms, with those obtained from multiyear mooring observations. The PV-conserving mean flow is characterized by stable boundary currents along all major topographic features including shelf breaks and basin-interior topographic ridges such as the Reykjanes Ridge or the Rockall Plateau. Mid-basin northward advection pathways from the northeastern Labrador Sea into the Irminger Sea and from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge region into the Iceland Basin are well-resolved. An eastward flow is present across the southern boundary of the subpolar gyre near 52°N, the latitude of the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone (CGFZ). The mid-depth EKE field resembles most of the satellite-derived surface EKE field. However, noticeable differences exist along the northward advection pathways in the Irminger Sea and the Iceland Basin, where the deep EKE exceeds the surface EKE field. Further, the ratio between mean flow and the square root of the EKE, the Peclet number, reveals distinct advection-dominated regions as well as basin-interior regimes in which mixing is prevailing.

Description: Past ocean temperatures and salinities can be approximated from combined stable oxygen isotopes (δ18O) and Mg ∕ Ca measurements in fossil foraminiferal tests with varying success. To further refine this approach, we collected living planktic foraminifers by net sampling and pumping of sea surface water from the Caribbean Sea, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits. Analyses of δ18O and Mg ∕ Ca in eight living planktic species (Globigerinoides sacculifer, Orbulina universa, Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, Pulleniatina obliquiloculata, Globorotalia menardii, Globorotalia ungulata, Globorotalia truncatulinoides and Globorotalia tumida) were compared to measured in situ properties of the ambient seawater (temperature, salinity and δ18Oseawater) and fossil tests of underlying surface sediments. “Vital effects” such as symbiont activity and test growth cause δ18O disequilibria with respect to the ambient seawater and a large scatter in foraminiferal Mg ∕ Ca. Overall, ocean temperature is the most prominent environmental influence on δ18Ocalcite and Mg ∕ Ca. Enrichment of the heavier 18O isotope in living specimens below the mixed layer and in fossil tests is clearly related to lowered in situ temperatures and gametogenic calcification. Mg ∕ Ca-based temperature estimates of G. sacculifer indicate seasonal maximum accumulation rates on the seafloor in early spring (March) at Caribbean stations and later in the year (May) in the Florida Straits, related to the respective mixed layer temperatures of ∼26 ∘C. Notably, G. sacculifer reveals a weak positive linear relationship between foraminiferal derived δ18Oseawater estimates and both measured in situ δ18Oseawater and salinity. Our results affirm the applicability of existing δ18O and Mg ∕ Ca calibrations for the reconstruction of past ocean temperatures and δ18Oseawater reflecting salinity due to the convincing accordance of proxy data in both living and fossil foraminifers, and in situ environmental parameters. Large vital effects and seasonally varying proxy signals, however, need to be taken into account.

Description: We propose a satellite mission that uses a near-nadir Ka-band Doppler radar to measure surface currents, ice drift and ocean waves at spatial scales of 40 km and more, with snapshots at least every day for latitudes 75 to 82°, and every few days for other latitudes. The use of incidence angles of 6 and 12° allows for measurement of the directional wave spectrum, which yields accurate corrections of the wave-induced bias in the current measurements. The instrument's design, an algorithm for current vector retrieval and the expected mission performance are presented here. The instrument proposed can reveal features of tropical ocean and marginal ice zone (MIZ) dynamics that are inaccessible to other measurement systems, and providing global monitoring of the ocean mesoscale that surpasses the capability of today's nadir altimeters. Measuring ocean wave properties has many applications, including examining wave–current interactions, air–sea fluxes, the transport and convergence of marine plastic debris and assessment of marine and coastal hazards.

Description: Gel particles, such as transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) and Coomassie stainable particles (CSP), are important organic components in the sea surface microlayer (SML). Here, we present results on the effect of different wind speeds on the accumulation and size distribution of TEP and CSP during a wind wave channel experiment in the Aeolotron. Total areas of TEP (TEPSML) and CSP (CSPSML) in the surface microlayer were exponentially related to wind speed. At wind speeds  〈  6 m s−1, accumulation of TEPSML and CSPSML occurred, decreasing at wind speeds of  〉  8 m s−1. Wind speeds  〉  8 m s−1 also significantly altered the size distribution of TEPSML in the 2–16 µm size range towards smaller sizes. The response of the CSPSML size distribution to wind speed varied through time depending on the biogenic source of gels. Wind speeds  〉  8 m s−1 decreased the slope of CSPSML size distribution significantly in the absence of autotrophic growth. For the slopes of TEP and CSP size distribution in the bulk water, no significant difference was observed between high and low wind speeds. Changes in spectral slopes between high and low wind speed were higher for TEPSML than for CSPSML, indicating that the impact of wind speed on size distribution of gel particles in the SML may be more pronounced for TEP than for CSP, and that CSPSML are less prone to aggregation during the low wind speeds. Addition of an E. huxleyi culture resulted in a higher contribution of submicron gels (0.4–1 µm) in the SML at higher wind speed ( 〉  6 m s−1), indicating that phytoplankton growth may potentially support the emission of submicron gels with sea spray aerosol.

Description: The impact of changes in incoming solar irradiance on stratospheric ozone abundances should be included in climate simulations to aid in capturing the atmospheric response to solar cycle variability. This study presents the first systematic comparison of the representation of the 11-year solar cycle ozone response (SOR) in chemistry–climate models (CCMs) and in pre-calculated ozone databases specified in climate models that do not include chemistry, with a special focus on comparing the recommended protocols for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). We analyse the SOR in eight CCMs from the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and compare these with results from three ozone databases for climate models: the Bodeker Scientific ozone database, the SPARC/Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate (AC&C) ozone database for CMIP5 and the SPARC/CCMI ozone database for CMIP6. The peak amplitude of the annual mean SOR in the tropical upper stratosphere (1–5hPa) decreases by more than a factor of 2, from around 5 to 2%, between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ozone databases. This substantial decrease can be traced to the CMIP5 ozone database being constructed from a regression model fit to satellite and ozonesonde measurements, while the CMIP6 database is constructed from CCM simulations. The SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database therefore implicitly resembles the SOR in the CCMI-1 models. The structure in latitude of the SOR in the CMIP6 ozone database and CCMI-1 models is considerably smoother than in the CMIP5 database, which shows unrealistic sharp gradients in the SOR across the middle latitudes owing to the paucity of long-term ozone measurements in polar regions. The SORs in the CMIP6 ozone database and the CCMI-1 models show a seasonal dependence with enhanced meridional gradients at mid- to high latitudes in the winter hemisphere. The CMIP5 ozone database does not account for seasonal variations in the SOR, which is unrealistic. Sensitivity experiments with a global atmospheric model without chemistry (ECHAM6.3) are performed to assess the atmospheric impacts of changes in the representation of the SOR and solar spectral irradiance (SSI) forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The larger amplitude of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database compared to CMIP6 causes a likely overestimation of the modelled tropical stratospheric temperature response between 11-year solar cycle minimum and maximum by up to 0.55K, or around 80% of the total amplitude. This effect is substantially larger than the change in temperature response due to differences in SSI forcing between CMIP5 and CMIP6. The results emphasize the importance of adequately representing the SOR in global models to capture the impact of the 11-year solar cycle on the atmosphere. Since a number of limitations in the representation of the SOR in the CMIP5 ozone database have been identified, we recommend that CMIP6 models without chemistry use the CMIP6 ozone database and the CMIP6 SSI dataset to better capture the climate impacts of solar variability. The SOR coefficients from the CMIP6 ozone database are published with this paper.

Description: The radiative effects induced by the zonally asymmetric part of the ozone field have been shown to significantly change the temperature of the NH winter polar cap, and correspondingly the strength of the polar vortex. In this paper, we aim to understand the physical processes behind these effects using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, run with 1960s ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases. We find a mid-winter polar vortex influence only when considering the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phases separately, since ozone waves affect the vortex in an opposite manner. Specifically, the emergence of a midlatitude QBO signal is delayed by 1–2 months when radiative ozone-wave effects are removed. The influence of ozone waves on the winter polar vortex, via their modulation of shortwave heating, is not obvious, given that shortwave heating is largest during fall, when planetary stratospheric waves are weakest. Using a novel diagnostic of wave 1 temperature amplitude tendencies and a synoptic analysis of upward planetary wave pulses, we are able to show the chain of events that lead from a direct radiative effect on weak early fall upward-propagating planetary waves to a winter polar vortex modulation. We show that an important stage of this amplification is the modulation of individual wave life cycles, which accumulate during fall and early winter, before being amplified by wave–mean flow feedbacks. We find that the evolution of these early winter upward planetary wave pulses and their induced stratospheric zonal mean flow deceleration is qualitatively different between QBO phases, providing a new mechanistic view of the extratropical QBO signal. We further show how these differences result in opposite radiative ozone-wave effects between east and west QBOs.

Description: The kinetics of particulate organic carbon (POC) mineralization in marine surface sediments is not well constrained. This creates considerable uncertainties when benthic processes are considered in global biogeochemical or Earth system circulation models to simulate climate-ocean interactions and biogeochemical tracers in the ocean. In an attempt to improve our understanding of the rate and depth distribution of organic carbon mineralization in bioturbated (0–10 cm) sediments, we parameterized a 1-D diagenetic model that simulates the reactivity of three discrete POC pools at global scale (a "multi-G" model). The rate constants of the three reactive classes (highly reactive, reactive, refractory) are fixed and determined to be 70 yr−1, 0.5 yr−1, and ~0.001 yr−1, respectively, based on the Martin curve model for pelagic POC degradation. In contrast to previous approaches, the reactivity of the organic material degraded in the seafloor is continuous with, and set by, the apparent reactivity of material sinking through the water column. The model is able to simulate a global database (185 stations) of benthic oxygen and nitrate fluxes across the sediment-water interface in addition to porewater oxygen and nitrate distributions and organic carbon burial efficiencies. It is further consistent with degradation experiments of fresh phytoplankton. We propose that an important yet mostly overlooked consideration in previous upscaling approaches is the proportion of the relative reactive POC classes reaching the seafloor in addition to their reactivity. The approach presented is applicable to both steady-state and non-steady state scenarios, and links POC degradation kinetics in sedimentary environments to water depth and the POC rain rate to the seafloor.

Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is analyzed by applying a box inverse model to hydrographic data from transatlantic sections along 14.5°N, occupied in 1989 and 2013, and along 24.5°N, occupied in 1992 and 2015. Direct comparison of water mass properties among the different realizations at the respective latitudes shows that the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) became warmer and saltier at 14.5°N, and the densest Antarctic Bottom Water became lighter, while the North Atlantic Deep Water freshened at both latitudes. The inverse solution shows that the intermediate layer transport at 14.5°N was also markedly weaker in 2013 than in 1989, indicating that the AAIW property changes at this latitude may be related to changes in the circulation. The inverse solution was validated using the RAPID and MOVE array data, and the GECCO2 ocean state estimate. Comparison among these datasets indicates that the AMOC has not significantly weakened over the past 2 decades at both latitudes. Sensitivity tests of the inverse solution suggest that the overturning structure and heat transport across the 14.5°N section are sensitive to the Ekman transport, while freshwater transport is sensitive to the transport-weighted salinity at the western boundary.

Description: We evaluated NOVAC (Network for Observation of Volcanic and Atmospheric Change) gas emission data from the 2015 eruption of Cotopaxi volcano (Ecuador) for BrO/SO2 molar ratios. Statistical analysis of the data revealed a conspicuous periodic pattern with a periodicity of about two weeks in a three month time series. While the time series is too short to rule out a chance recurrence of transient geological or meteorological events as a possible origin for the periodic signal, we nevertheless took this observation as a motivation to examine the influence of natural forcings with periodicities of around two weeks on volcanic gas emissions. One strong aspirant with such a periodicity are the Earth tides, which are thus central in this study. We present the BrO/SO2 data, analyse the reliability of the periodic signal, discuss a possible meteorological or eruption-induced origin of this signal, and compare the signal with the theoretical ground surface displacement pattern caused by the Earth tides. Central result is the observation of a significant correlation between the BrO/SO2 molar ratios with the North-South and vertical components of the calculated tide-induced surface displacement with correlation coefficients of 47 % and 36 %, respectively. From all other investigated parameters, only the correlation between the BrO/SO2 molar ratios and the relative humidity in the local atmosphere resulted in a comparable correlation coefficient of about 33 %.

Description: Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels continue to rise, increasing the risk of severe impacts on the Earth system, and on the ecosystem services that it provides. Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and surface warming and addressing ocean acidification. Here, we simulate global and regional responses to alkalinity (ALK) addition (0.25 PmolALK yr−1) over the period 2020–2100 using the CSIRO-Mk3L-COAL Earth System Model, under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5; RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) emissions. While regionally there are large changes in alkalinity associated with locations of AOA, globally we see only a very weak dependence on where and when AOA is applied. On a global scale, while we see that under RCP2.6 the carbon uptake associated with AOA is only ∼ 60 % of the total, under RCP8.5 the relative changes in temperature are larger, as are the changes in pH (140 %) and aragonite saturation state (170 %). The simulations reveal AOA is more effective under lower emissions, therefore the higher the emissions the more AOA is required to achieve the same reduction in global warming and ocean acidification. Finally, our simulated AOA for 2020–2100 in the RCP2.6 scenario is capable of offsetting warming and ameliorating ocean acidification increases at the global scale, but with highly variable regional responses.

Description: This study introduces the Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method, a bottom–up approach which combines expert judgment and statistical information to systematically select transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the state of the Earth system. The methods consists of two basic steps: (1) the calculation of a correlation matrix among variables relevant for a given research question and (2) the systematic evaluation of the matrix, to identify clusters of variables with similar behavior and respective mutually independent indicators. Optional further analysis steps include (3) the interpretation of the identified clusters, enabling a learning effect from the selection of indicators, (4) testing the robustness of identified clusters with respect to changes in forcing or boundary conditions, (5) enabling a comparative assessment of varying scenarios by constructing and evaluating a common correlation matrix, and (6) the inclusion of expert judgment, for example, to prescribe indicators, to allow for considerations other than statistical consistency. The example application of the SCoMaE method to Earth system model output forced by different CO2 emission scenarios reveals the necessity of reevaluating indicators identified in a historical scenario simulation for an accurate assessment of an intermediate–high, as well as a business-as-usual, climate change scenario simulation. This necessity arises from changes in prevailing correlations in the Earth system under varying climate forcing. For a comparative assessment of the three climate change scenarios, we construct and evaluate a common correlation matrix, in which we identify robust correlations between variables across the three considered scenarios.

Description: Magmatic sill intrusions into organic-rich sediments cause the release of thermogenic CH4 and CO2. Pore fluids from the Guaymas Basin (Gulf of California), a sedimentary basin with recent magmatic activity, were investigated to constrain the link between sill intrusions and fluid seepage as well as the timing of sill-induced hydrothermal activity. Sampling sites were close to a hydrothermal vent field at the northern rift axis and at cold seeps located up to 30km away from the rift. Pore fluids close to the active hydrothermal vent field showed a slight imprint by hydrothermal fluids and indicated a shallow circulation system transporting seawater to the hydrothermal catchment area. Geochemical data of pore fluids at cold seeps showed a mainly ambient diagenetic fluid composition without any imprint related to high temperature processes at greater depth. Seep communities at the seafloor were mainly sustained by microbial methane, which rose along pathways formed earlier by hydrothermal activity, driving the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) and the formation of authigenic carbonates. Overall, our data from the cold seep sites suggest that at present, sill-induced hydrothermalism is not active away from the ridge axis, and the vigorous venting of hydrothermal fluids is restricted to the ridge axis. Using the sediment thickness above extinct conduits and carbonate dating, we calculated that deep fluid and thermogenic gas flow ceased 28 to 7kyr ago. These findings imply a short lifetime of hydrothermal systems, limiting the time of unhindered carbon release as suggested in previous modeling studies. Consequently, activation and deactivation mechanisms of these systems need to be better constrained for the use in climate modeling approaches.

Description: Climate simulations are the fuel to drive hydrological models that are used to assess the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological parameters, such as river discharges, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Unlike with cars, where we know which fuel the engine requires, we never know in advance what unexpected side effects might be caused by the fuel we feed our models with. Sometimes we increase the fuel's octane number (bias correction) to achieve better performance and find out that the model behaves differently but not always as was expected or desired. This study investigates the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile catchment using two model ensembles consisting of five global CMIP5 Earth system models and 10 regional climate models (CORDEX Africa). WATCH forcing data were used to calibrate an eco-hydrological model and to bias-correct both model ensembles using slightly differing approaches. On the one hand it was found that the bias correction methods considerably improved the performance of average rainfall characteristics in the reference period (1970–1999) in most of the cases. This also holds true for non-extreme discharge conditions between Q20 and Q80. On the other hand, bias-corrected simulations tend to overemphasize magnitudes of projected change signals and extremes. A general weakness of both uncorrected and bias-corrected simulations is the rather poor representation of high and low flows and their extremes, which were often deteriorated by bias correction. This inaccuracy is a crucial deficiency for regional impact studies dealing with water management issues and it is therefore important to analyse model performance and characteristics and the effect of bias correction, and eventually to exclude some climate models from the ensemble. However, the multi-model means of all ensembles project increasing average annual discharges in the Upper Blue Nile catchment and a shift in seasonal patterns, with decreasing discharges in June and July and increasing discharges from August to November.

Description: As ice sheets grow or decay, the net flux of freshwater into the ocean changes and the bedrock adjusts due to isostatic adjustments, leading to variations in the bottom topography and the oceanic boundaries. This process was particularly intense during the last deglaciation due to the high rates of ice-sheet melting. It is, therefore, necessary to consider transient ocean bathymetry and coastlines when attempting to simulate the last deglaciation with Earth system models (ESMs). However, in most standard ESMs the land-sea mask is fixed throughout simulations because the generation of a new ocean model bathymetry implies several levels of manual corrections, a procedure that is hardly doable very often for long runs. This is one of the main technical problems towards simulating a complete glacial cycle with general circulation models. For the first time, we present a tool allowing for an automatic computation of bathymetry and land-sea mask changes in the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The algorithms developed in this paper can easily be adapted to any free-surface ocean model that uses the Arakawa-C grid in the horizontal and z-grid in the vertical including partial bottom cells. The strategy applied is described in detail and the algorithms are tested in a long-term simulation demonstrating the reliable behaviour. Our approach guarantees the conservation of mass and tracers at global and regional scales; that is, changes in a single grid point are only propagated regionally. The procedures presented here are an important contribution to the development of a fully coupled ice sheet–solid Earth–climate model system with time-varying topography and will allow for transient simulations of the last deglaciation considering interactive bathymetry and land-sea mask.

Description: The United Nations proclaimed a decade of marine science for sustainable development (2021–2030) to develop a common framework that will ensure that ocean science can fully support countries in achieving the goal of sustainable development. Marine scientific understanding is fundamental to managing human activities that affect this environment, and ocean observations have a particularly important role in enhancing the knowledge base of our oceans. With this important task, scientists have the responsibility to act in an ethical way and apply all the fundamental principles described in the Cape Town statement: (a) ethical values, (b) social values and (c) cultural values (Peppoloni and Di Capua, 2017). This article is a fist attempt to highlight the core values applicable to ocean observation, which can then be improved and adopted as part of geoethics and the stewardship of the Earth system. It opens up avenues for reflection on geoethical implications in the field of ocean observation and suggests nine key principles that marine scientists could follow in their innovative research regarding open access to data, effectiveness, compliance with laws, environmental respect and nature conservation, reciprocal relation and cultural respect, equity and fairness, knowledge transfer, governance adapted to socio-ecological systems, and the use of animals in research.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013)

Description: The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the surface, which is mainly controlled by the albedo of snow and ice. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the representation of snow albedo in the model. It is well known that the albedo of snow depends strongly on snow grain size and the content of light-absorbing impurities. Excluding either the snow aging effect or the dust darkening effect on snow albedo leads to an excessive ice build-up during glacial times and consequently to a failure in simulating deglaciation. While the effect of snow grain growth on snow albedo is well constrained, the albedo reduction due to the presence of dust in snow is much more uncertain because the light-absorbing properties of dust vary widely as a function of dust mineral composition. We also show that assuming slightly different optical properties of dust leads to very different ice sheet and climate evolutions in the model. Conversely, ice sheet evolution is less sensitive to the choice of ice albedo in the model. We conclude that a proper representation of snow albedo is a fundamental prerequisite for a successful simulation of glacial cycles.

Description: Mechanical and/or chemical removal of material from the subsurface may generate large subsurface cavities, the destabilisation of which can lead to ground collapse and the formation of sinkholes. Numerical simulation of the interaction of cavity growth, host material deformation and overburden collapse is desirable to better understand the sinkhole hazard but is a challenging task due to the involved high strains and material discontinuities. Here, we present 2-D distinct element method numerical simulations of cavity growth and sinkhole development. Firstly, we simulate cavity formation by quasi-static, stepwise removal of material in a single growing zone of an arbitrary geometry and depth. We benchmark this approach against analytical and boundary element method models of a deep void space in a linear elastic material. Secondly, we explore the effects of properties of different uniform materials on cavity stability and sinkhole development. We perform simulated biaxial tests to calibrate macroscopic geotechnical parameters of three model materials representative of those in which sinkholes develop at the Dead Sea shoreline: mud, alluvium and salt. We show that weak materials do not support large cavities, leading to gradual sagging or suffusion-style subsidence. Strong materials support quasi-stable to stable cavities, the overburdens of which may fail suddenly in a caprock or bedrock collapse style. Thirdly, we examine the consequences of layered arrangements of weak and strong materials. We find that these are more susceptible to sinkhole collapse than uniform materials not only due to a lower integrated strength of the overburden but also due to an inhibition of stabilising stress arching. Finally, we compare our model sinkhole geometries to observations at the Ghor Al-Haditha sinkhole site in Jordan. Sinkhole depth ∕ diameter ratios of 0.15 in mud, 0.37 in alluvium and 0.33 in salt are reproduced successfully in the calibrated model materials. The model results suggest that the observed distribution of sinkhole depth ∕ diameter values in each material type may partly reflect sinkhole growth trends.

Description: In the present study a non-motion-stabilized scanning Doppler lidar was operated on board of RV Polarstern in the Arctic (June 2014) and Antarctic (December 2015–January 2016). This is the first time that such a system measured on an icebreaker in the Antarctic. A method for a motion correction of the data in the post-processing is presented. The wind calculation is based on vertical azimuth display (VAD) scans with eight directions that pass a quality control. Additionally a method for an empirical signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) threshold is presented, which can be calculated for individual measurement set-ups. Lidar wind profiles are compared to total of about 120 radiosonde profiles and also to wind measurements of the ship. The performance of the lidar measurements in comparison with radio soundings generally shows small root mean square deviation (bias) for wind speed of around 1 m s−1 (0.1 m s−1) and for wind direction of around 10∘ (1∘). The post-processing of the non-motion-stabilized data shows a comparably high quality to studies with motion-stabilized systems. Two case studies show that a flexible change in SNR threshold can be beneficial for special situations. Further the studies reveal that short-lived low-level jets in the atmospheric boundary layer can be captured by lidar measurements with a high temporal resolution in contrast to routine radio soundings. The present study shows that a non-motion-stabilized Doppler lidar can be operated successfully on an icebreaker. It presents a processing chain including quality control tests and error quantification, which is useful for further measurement campaigns.

Description: Near-surface geophysical imaging of alluvial fan settings is a challenging task but crucial for understating geological processes in such settings. The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha at the southeast shore of the Dead Sea is strongly affected by localized subsidence and destructive sinkhole collapses, with a significantly increasing sinkhole formation rate since ca. 1983. A similar increase is observed also on the western shore of the Dead Sea, in correlation with an ongoing decline in the Dead Sea level. Since different structural models of the upper 50 m of the alluvial fan and varying hypothetical sinkhole processes have been suggested for the Ghor Al-Haditha area in the past, this study aimed to clarify the subsurface characteristics responsible for sinkhole development. For this purpose, high-frequency shear wave reflection vibratory seismic surveys were carried out in the Ghor Al-Haditha area along several crossing and parallel profiles with a total length of 1.8 and 2.1 km in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The sedimentary architecture of the alluvial fan at Ghor Al-Haditha is resolved down to a depth of nearly 200 m at a high resolution and is calibrated with the stratigraphic profiles of two boreholes located inside the survey area. The most surprising result of the survey is the absence of evidence of a thick (〉 2–10 m) compacted salt layer formerly suggested to lie at ca. 35–40 m depth. Instead, seismic reflection amplitudes and velocities image with good continuity a complex interlocking of alluvial fan deposits and lacustrine sediments of the Dead Sea between 0 and 200 m depth. Furthermore, the underground section of areas affected by sinkholes is characterized by highly scattering wave fields and reduced seismic interval velocities. We propose that the Dead Sea mud layers, which comprise distributed inclusions or lenses of evaporitic chloride, sulfate, and carbonate minerals as well as clay silicates, become increasingly exposed to unsaturated water as the sea level declines and are consequently destabilized and mobilized by both dissolution and physical erosion in the subsurface. This new interpretation of the underlying cause of sinkhole development is supported by surface observations in nearby channel systems. Overall, this study shows that shear wave seismic reflection technique is a promising method for enhanced near-surface imaging in such challenging alluvial fan settings.

Description: Abrupt cold events have been detected in numerous North Atlantic climate records from the Holocene. Several mechanisms have been discussed as possible triggers for these climate shifts persisting decades to centuries. Here, we describe two abrupt cold events that occurred during an orbitally forced transient Holocene simulation using the Community Climate System Model version 3. Both events occurred during the late Holocene (4305–4267 BP and 3046–3018 BP for event 1 and event 2, respectively). They were characterized by substantial surface cooling (−2.3 and −1.8 ∘C, respectively) and freshening (−0.6 and −0.5 PSU, respectively) as well as severe sea ice advance east of Newfoundland and south of Greenland, reaching as far as the Iceland Basin in the northeastern Atlantic at the climaxes of the cold events. Convection and deep-water formation in the northwestern Atlantic collapsed during the events, while the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation was not substantially affected (weakening by only about 10 % and 5 %, respectively). The events were triggered by prolonged phases of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation that caused substantial changes in the subpolar ocean circulation and associated freshwater transports, resulting in a weakening of the subpolar gyre. Our results suggest a possible mechanism by which abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic region may be triggered by internal climate variability without the need of an external (e.g., solar or volcanic) forcing.

Description: We propose a surface melt scheme for glaciated land surfaces, which only requires monthly mean short-wave radiation and temperature as inputs, yet implicitly accounts for the diurnal cycle of short-wave radiation. The scheme is deduced from the energy balance of a daily melt period, which is defined by a minimum solar elevation angle. The scheme yields a better spatial representation of melting than common empirical schemes when applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet, using a 1948–2016 regional climate and snowpack simulation as a reference. The scheme is physically constrained and can be adapted to other regions or time periods.

Description: Holocene sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the local trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual framework of the stochastic climate model. The relation is a consequence of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem, connecting the linear response of a system to its statistical fluctuations. Consequently, the spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate response. The non-normality in the propagation operator introduces enhanced long-term variability related to nonequilibrium and/or Earth system sensitivity. The simple model can guide us to analyze comprehensive models' behavior.

Description: Paleoclimate reconstruction based on assimilation of proxy observations requires specification of the control variables and their background statistics. As opposed to numerical weather prediction (NWP), which is mostly an initial condition problem, the main source of error growth in deterministic Earth system models (ESMs) regarding the model low-frequency response comes from errors in other inputs: parameters for the small-scale physics, as well as forcing and boundary conditions. Also, comprehensive ESMs are non-linear and only a few ensemble members can be run in current high-performance computers. Under these conditions we evaluate two assimilation schemes, which (a) count on iterations to deal with non-linearity and (b) are based on low-dimensional control vectors to reduce the computational need. The practical implementation would assume that the ESM has been previously globally tuned with current observations and that for a given situation there is previous knowledge of the most sensitive inputs (given corresponding uncertainties), which should be selected as control variables. The low dimension of the control vector allows for using full-rank covariances and resorting to finite-difference sensitivities (FDSs). The schemes are then an FDS implementation of the iterative Kalman smoother (FDS-IKS, a Gauss–Newton scheme) and a so-called FDS-multistep Kalman smoother (FDS-MKS, based on repeated assimilation of the observations). We describe the schemes and evaluate the analysis step for a data assimilation window in two numerical experiments: (a) a simple 1-D energy balance model (Ebm1D; which has an adjoint code) with present-day surface air temperature from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data as a target and (b) a multi-decadal synthetic case with the Community Earth System Model (CESM v1.2, with no adjoint). In the Ebm1D experiment, the FDS-IKS converges to the same parameters and cost function values as a 4D-Var scheme. For similar iterations to the FDS-IKS, the FDS-MKS results in slightly higher cost function values, which are still substantially lower than those of an ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF). In the CESM experiment, we include an ETKF with Gaussian anamorphosis (ETKF-GA) implementation as a potential non-linear assimilation alternative. For three iterations, both FDS schemes obtain cost functions values that are close between them and (with about half the computational cost) lower than those of the ETKF and ETKF-GA (with similar cost function values). Overall, the FDS-IKS seems more adequate for the problem, with the FDS-MKS potentially more useful to damp increments in early iterations of the FDS-IKS.

Description: The well-established dynamical global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL is extended with a terrestrial nitrogen cycle to account for nutrient limitations. In particular, processes of soil nitrogen dynamics, plant uptake, nitrogen allocation, response of photosynthesis and maintenance respiration to varying nitrogen concentrations in plant organs, and agricultural nitrogen management are included in the model. All new model features are described in full detail and the results of a global simulation of the historic past (1901–2009) are presented for evaluation of the model performance. We find that the implementation of nitrogen limitation significantly improves the simulation of global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity, which had to be calibrated via a scaling of the maximum leaf area index, can now largely be reproduced by the model, except for regions where fertilizer inputs and climate conditions are not the yield-limiting factors. Furthermore, it can be shown that land use has a strong influence on nitrogen losses, increasing leaching by 93 %.

Description: We have coupled an Earth Systems Model of Intermediate Complexity (LOVECLIM) to the Glacial Systems Model (GSM). This coupling includes a number of interactions between ice sheets and climate that are often ignored: dynamic meltwater runoff routing, novel down-scaling for precipitation that corrects orographic forcing to the higher resolution ice sheet grid ("advective precipitation"), dynamic vertical temperature gradient, and ocean temperatures for sub-shelf melt. The sensitivity of the coupled model with respect to the selected parameterizations and coupling schemes is investigated. Each new coupling feature has a significant impact on ice sheet evolution. An ensemble of runs is used to explore the behaviour of the coupled model over a set of 2000 parameter vectors using Present-Day (PD) initial and boundary conditions. The ensemble of coupled model runs is compared against PD reanalysis data for atmosphere (surface temperature, precipitation, jet-stream and Rossby number of jet), ocean (sea ice, sea surface temperature, and AMOC), and Northern Hemisphere ice sheet thickness and extent. The parameter vectors are then narrowed by rejecting model runs (1700 CE to present) with regional land ice volume changes beyond an acceptance range. The selected sub-set forms the basis for ongoing work to explore the spatial-temporal phase space of the last two glacial cycles.

Description: The fate of the organic matter (OM) produced by marine life controls the major biogeochemical cycles of the Earth's system. The OM produced through photosynthesis is either preserved, exported towards sediments or degraded through remineralisation in the water column. The productive eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) associated with oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) would be expected to foster OM preservation due to low O2 conditions. But their intense and diverse microbial activity should enhance OM degradation. To investigate this contradiction, sediment traps were deployed near the oxycline and in the OMZ core on an instrumented moored line off Peru. Data provided high-temporal-resolution O2 series characterising two seasonal steady states at the upper trap: suboxic ([O2] 〈 25µmolkg−1) and hypoxic–oxic (15 〈 [O2] 〈 160µmolkg−1) in austral summer and winter–spring, respectively. The OMZ vertical transfer efficiency of particulate organic carbon (POC) between traps (Teff) can be classified into three main ranges (high, intermediate, low). These different Teff ranges suggest that both predominant preservation (high Teff 〉 50%) and remineralisation (intermediate Teff 20 〈 50% or low Teff 〈 6%) configurations can occur. An efficient OMZ vertical transfer (Teff 〉 50%) has been reported in summer and winter associated with extreme limitation in O2 concentrations or OM quantity for OM degradation. However, higher levels of O2 or OM, or less refractory OM, at the oxycline, even in a co-limitation context, can decrease the OMZ transfer efficiency to below 50%. This is especially true in summer during intraseasonal wind-driven oxygenation events. In late winter and early spring, high oxygenation conditions together with high fluxes of sinking particles trigger a shutdown of the OMZ transfer (Teff 〈 6%). Transfer efficiency of chemical elements composing the majority of the flux (nitrogen, phosphorus, silica, calcium carbonate) follows the same trend as for carbon, with the lowest transfer level being in late winter and early spring. Regarding particulate isotopes, vertical transfer of δ15N suggests a complex pattern of 15N impoverishment or enrichment according to Teff modulation. This sensitivity of OM to O2 fluctuations and particle concentration calls for further investigation into OM and O2-driven remineralisation processes. This should include consideration of the intermittent behaviour of OMZ towards OM demonstrated in past studies and climate projections.

Description: We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. Aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961-1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation-surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute to global sea level rise between 1.9 and 13.0cm until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation-surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8cm. Additionally, taking Helheim and Store Glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.

Description: During the 2014 GEOVIDE transect, seawater samples were collected for dissolved Pb and Pb isotope analysis. These samples provide a high-resolution "snapshot" of the source regions for the present Pb distribution in the North Atlantic Ocean. Some of these stations were previously occupied for Pb from as early as 1981, and we compare the 2014 data with these older data, some of which are reported here for the first time. Lead concentrations were highest in subsurface Mediterranean Water (MW) near the coast of Portugal, which agrees well with other recent observations by the US GEOTRACES program (Noble et al., 2015). The recently formed Labrador Sea Water (LSW) between Greenland and Nova Scotia is much lower in Pb concentration than the older LSW found in the West European Basin due to decreases in Pb emissions into the atmosphere during the past 20 years. Comparison of North Atlantic data from 1989 to 2014 shows decreasing Pb concentrations consistent with decreased anthropogenic inputs, active scavenging, and advection/convection. Although the isotopic composition of northern North Atlantic seawater appears more homogenous compared to previous decades, a clear spatiotemporal trend in isotope ratios is evident over the past 15 years and implies that small changes to atmospheric Pb emissions continue. Emissions data indicate that the relative proportions of US and European Pb sources to the ocean have been relatively uniform during the past 2 decades, while aerosol data may suggest a greater relative proportion of natural mineral Pb. Using our measurements in conjunction with emissions inventories, we support the findings of previous atmospheric analyses that a significant portion of the Pb deposited to the ocean in 2014 was natural, although it is obscured by the much greater solubility of anthropogenic aerosols over natural ones.

Description: We present BrAHMs (BAsal Hydrology Model): a physically based basal hydrology model which represents water flow using Darcian flow in the distributed drainage regime and a fast down-gradient solver in the channelized regime. Switching from distributed to channelized drainage occurs when appropriate flow conditions are met. The model is designed for long-term integrations of continental ice sheets. The Darcian flow is simulated with a robust combination of the Heun and leapfrog–trapezoidal predictor–corrector schemes. These numerical schemes are applied to a set of flux-conserving equations cast over a staggered grid with water thickness at the centres and fluxes defined at the interface. Basal conditions (e.g., till thickness, hydraulic conductivity) are parameterized so the model is adaptable to a variety of ice sheets. Given the intended scales, basal water pressure is limited to ice overburden pressure, and dynamic time stepping is used to ensure that the Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy (CFL) condition is met for numerical stability. The model is validated with a synthetic ice sheet geometry and different bed topographies to test basic water flow properties and mass conservation. Synthetic ice sheet tests show that the model behaves as expected with water flowing down gradient, forming lakes in a potential well or reaching a terminus and exiting the ice sheet. Channel formation occurs periodically over different sections of the ice sheet and, when extensive, displays the arborescent configuration expected of Röthlisberger channels. The model is also shown to be stable under high-frequency oscillatory meltwater inputs.

Description: Unexpectedly large seasonal phase differences between CH4 concentration and its 13C∕12C isotopic ratio and their inter-annual variations observed in southern hemispheric time series have been attributed to the Cl+CH4 reaction, in which 13CH4 is discriminated strongly compared to OH+CH4, and have provided the only (indirect) evidence of a hemispheric-scale presence of oxidative cycle-relevant quantities of tropospheric atomic Cl. Our analysis of concurrent New Zealand and Antarctic time series of CH4 and CO mixing and isotope ratios shows that a corresponding 13C∕12C variability is absent in CO. Using the AC-GCM EMAC model and isotopic mass balancing for comparing the periods of presumably high and low Cl, it is shown that variations in extra-tropical Southern Hemisphere Cl cannot have exceeded 0.9 × 103atomscm−3. It is demonstrated that the 13C∕12C ratio of CO is a sensitive indicator for the isotopic composition of reacted CH4 and therefore for its sources. Despite ambiguities about the yield of CO from CH4 oxidation (with this yield being an important factor in the budget of CO) and uncertainties about the isotopic composition of sources of CO (in particular biomass burning), the contribution of Cl to the removal of CH4 in the troposphere is probably much lower than currently assumed.

Description: A 400m long array with 201 high-resolution NIOZ temperature sensors was deployed above a north-east equatorial Pacific hilly abyssal plain for 2.5 months. The sensors sampled at a rate of 1Hz. The lowest sensor was at 7m above the bottom (ma.b.). The aim was to study internal waves and turbulent overturning away from large-scale ocean topography. Topography consisted of moderately elevated hills (a few hundred metres), providing a mean bottom slope of one-third of that found at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (on 2km horizontal scales). In contrast with observations over large-scale topography like guyots, ridges and continental slopes, the present data showed a well-defined near-homogeneous "bottom boundary layer". However, its thickness varied strongly with time between  〈 7 and 100ma.b. with a mean around 65ma.b. The average thickness exceeded tidal current bottom-frictional heights so that internal wave breaking dominated over bottom friction. Near-bottom fronts also varied in time (and thus space). Occasional coupling was observed between the interior internal wave breaking and the near-bottom overturning, with varying up- and down- phase propagation. In contrast with currents that were dominated by the semidiurnal tide, 200m shear was dominant at (sub-)inertial frequencies. The shear was so large that it provided a background of marginal stability for the straining high-frequency internal wave field in the interior. Daily averaged turbulence dissipation rate estimates were between 10−10 and 10−9m2s−3, increasing with depth, while eddy diffusivities were of the order of 10−4m2s−1. This most intense "near-bottom" internal-wave-induced turbulence will affect the resuspension of sediments.

Description: For the past decade, observations of carbonyl sulfide (OCS or COS) have been investigated as a proxy for carbon uptake by plants. OCS is destroyed by enzymes that interact with CO2 during photosynthesis, namely carbonic anhydrase (CA) and RuBisCO, where CA is the more important one. The majority of sources of OCS to the atmosphere are geographically separated from this large plant sink, whereas the sources and sinks of CO2 are co-located in ecosystems. The drawdown of OCS can therefore be related to the uptake of CO2 without the added complication of co-located emissions comparable in magnitude. Here we review the state of our understanding of the global OCS cycle and its applications to ecosystem carbon cycle science. OCS uptake is correlated well to plant carbon uptake, especially at the regional scale. OCS can be used in conjunction with other independent measures of ecosystem function, like solar-induced fluorescence and carbon and water isotope studies. More work needs to be done to generate global coverage for OCS observations and to link this powerful atmospheric tracer to systems where fundamental questions concerning the carbon and water cycle remain.

Description: Barrier island transgression is influenced by the alongshore variation in beach and dune morphology, which determines the amount of sediment moved landward through wash-over. While several studies have demonstrated how variations in dune morphology affect island response to storms, the reasons for that variation and the implications for island management remain unclear. This paper builds on previous research by demonstrating that paleo-channels in the irregular framework geology can have a directional influence on alongshore beach and dune morphology. The influence of relict paleo-channels on beach and dune morphology on Padre Island National Seashore, Texas, was quantified by isolating the long-range dependence (LRD) parameter in autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models, originally developed for stock market economic forecasting. ARFIMA models were fit across ∼250 unique spatial scales and a moving window approach was used to examine how LRD varied with computational scale and location along the island. The resulting LRD matrices were plotted by latitude to place the results in the context of previously identified variations in the framework geology. Results indicate that the LRD is not constant alongshore for all surface morphometrics. Many flares in the LRD plots correlate to relict infilled paleo-channels, indicating that the framework geology has a significant influence on the morphology of Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS). Barrier island surface morphology LRD is strongest at large paleo-channels and decreases to the north. The spatial patterns in LRD surface morphometrics and framework geology variations demonstrate that the influence of paleo-channels can be asymmetric (i.e., affecting beach–dune morphology preferentially in one direction alongshore) where the alongshore sediment transport gradient was unidirectional during island development. The asymmetric influence of framework geology on coastal morphology has long-term implications for coastal management activities because it dictates the long-term behavior of a barrier island. Coastal management projects should first seek to assess the framework geology and understand how it influences coastal processes in order to more effectively balance long-term natural variability with short-term societal pressure.

Description: Future deep-sea mining for polymetallic nodules in abyssal plains will negatively impact the benthic ecosystem, but it is largely unclear whether this ecosystem will be able to recover from mining disturbance and if so, to what extent and at what timescale. During the "DISturbance and reCOLonization" (DISCOL) experiment, a total of 22% of the seafloor within a 10.8km2 circular area of the nodule-rich seafloor in the Peru Basin (SE Pacific) was ploughed in 1989 to bury nodules and mix the surface sediment. This area was revisited 0.1, 0.5, 3, 7, and 26 years after the disturbance to assess macrofauna, invertebrate megafauna and fish density and diversity. We used this unique abyssal faunal time series to develop carbon-based food web models for each point in the time series using the linear inverse modeling approach for sediments subjected to two disturbance levels: (1) outside the plough tracks; not directly disturbed by plough, but probably suffered from additional sedimentation; and (2) inside the plough tracks. Total faunal carbon stock was always higher outside plough tracks compared with inside plough tracks. After 26 years, the carbon stock inside the plough tracks was 54% of the carbon stock outside plough tracks. Deposit feeders were least affected by the disturbance, with modeled respiration, external predation, and excretion rates being reduced by only 2.6% inside plough tracks compared with outside plough tracks after 26 years. In contrast, the respiration rate of filter and suspension feeders was 79.5% lower in the plough tracks after 26 years. The "total system throughput" (T..), i.e., the total sum of modeled carbon flows in the food web, was higher throughout the time series outside plough tracks compared with the corresponding inside plough tracks area and was lowest inside plough tracks directly after the disturbance (8.63 × 10−3±1.58 × 10−5mmolCm−2d−1). Even 26 years after the DISCOL disturbance, the discrepancy of T.. between outside and inside plough tracks was still 56%. Hence, C cycling within the faunal compartments of an abyssal plain ecosystem remains reduced 26 years after physical disturbance, and a longer period is required for the system to recover from such a small-scale sediment disturbance experiment.

Description: Basalt weathering is one of many relevant processes balancing the global carbon cycle via land-ocean alkalinity fluxes. The CO2 consumption by weathering can be calculated using alkalinity and is often scaled with runoff and/or temperature. Here it is tested if information on the surface age distribution of a volcanic system is a useful proxy for changes in alkalinity production with time. A linear relationship between temperature normalized alkalinity fluxes and the Holocene area fraction of a volcanic field was identified, using information from 33 basalt volcanic fields, with an r2=0.91. This relationship is interpreted as an aging function and suggests that fluxes from Holocene areas are ~10 times higher than those from old inactive volcanic fields. However, the cause for the decrease with time is probably a combination of effects, including a decrease in alkalinity production from surface near material in the critical zone as well as a decline in hydrothermal activity and magmatic CO2 contribution. A comparison with global models suggests, that global alkalinity fluxes considering Holocene active basalt areas are ~70% higher than the average from these models imply. The contribution of Holocene areas to the global basalt alkalinity fluxes is however only ~6%, because identified, mapped Holocene basalt areas cover only ~1% of the existing basalt areas. The large trap basalt proportion on the global basalt areas today reduces the relevance of the aging effect. However, the aging effect might be a relevant process during periods of globally, intensive volcanic activity, which remains to be tested.

Description: In this study, high-resolution bathymetric multibeam and optical image data, both obtained within the Belgian manganese (Mn) nodule mining license area by the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) Abyss, were combined in order to create a predictive random forests (RF) machine learning model. AUV bathymetry reveals small-scale terrain variations, allowing slope estimations and calculation of bathymetric derivatives such as slope, curvature, and ruggedness. Optical AUV imagery provides quantitative information regarding the distribution (number and median size) of Mn nodules. Within the area considered in this study, Mn nodules show a heterogeneous and spatially clustered pattern, and their number per square meter is negatively correlated with their median size. A prediction of the number of Mn nodules was achieved by combining information derived from the acoustic and optical data using a RF model. This model was tuned by examining the influence of the training set size, the number of growing trees (ntree), and the number of predictor variables to be randomly selected at each node (mtry) on the RF prediction accuracy. The use of larger training data sets with higher ntree and mtry values increases the accuracy. To estimate the Mn-nodule abundance, these predictions were linked to ground-truth data acquired by box coring. Linking optical and hydroacoustic data revealed a nonlinear relationship between the Mn-nodule distribution and topographic characteristics. This highlights the importance of a detailed terrain reconstruction for a predictive modeling of Mn-nodule abundance. In addition, this study underlines the necessity of a sufficient spatial distribution of the optical data to provide reliable modeling input for the RF.

Description: The assessment of diagenetic overprint on microstructural and geochemical data gained from fossil archives is of fundamental importance for understanding palaeoenvironments. The correct reconstruction of past environmental dynamics is only possible when pristine skeletons are unequivocally distinguished from altered skeletal elements. Our previous studies show (i) that replacement of biogenic carbonate by inorganic calcite occurs via an interface-coupled dissolution–reprecipitation mechanism. (ii) A comprehensive understanding of alteration of the biogenic skeleton is only given when structural changes are assessed on both, the micrometre as well as on the nanometre scale. In the present contribution we investigate experimental hydrothermal alteration of six different modern biogenic carbonate materials to (i) assess their potential for withstanding diagenetic overprint and to (ii) find characteristics for the preservation of their microstructure in the fossil record. Experiments were performed at 175°C with a 100 mM NaCl + 10 mM MgCl2 alteration solution and lasted for up to 35 days. For each type of microstructure we (i) examine the evolution of biogenic carbonate replacement by inorganic calcite, (ii) highlight different stages of inorganic carbonate formation, (iii) explore microstructural changes at different degrees of alteration, and (iv) perform a statistical evaluation of microstructural data to highlight changes in crystallite size between the pristine and the altered skeletons. We find that alteration from biogenic aragonite to inorganic calcite proceeds along pathways where the fluid enters the material. It is fastest in hard tissues with an existing primary porosity and a biopolymer fabric within the skeleton that consists of a network of fibrils. The slowest alteration kinetics occurs when biogenic nacreous aragonite is replaced by inorganic calcite, irrespective of the mode of assembly of nacre tablets. For all investigated biogenic carbonates we distinguish the following intermediate stages of alteration: (i) decomposition of biopolymers and the associated formation of secondary porosity, (ii) homoepitactic overgrowth with preservation of the original phase leading to amalgamation of neighbouring mineral units (i.e. recrystallization by grain growth eliminating grain boundaries), (iii) deletion of the original microstructure, however, at first, under retention of the original mineralogical phase, and (iv) replacement of both, the pristine microstructure and original phase with the newly formed abiogenic product. At the alteration front we find between newly formed calcite and reworked biogenic aragonite the formation of metastable Mg-rich carbonates with a calcite-type structure and compositions ranging from dolomitic to about 80mol % magnesite. This high-Mg calcite seam shifts with the alteration front when the latter is displaced within the unaltered biogenic aragonite. For all investigated biocarbonate hard tissues we observe the destruction of the microstructure first, and, in a second step, the replacement of the original with the newly formed phase.

Description: The dispersion of volcanic emissions in the Earth atmosphere is of interest for climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. Current volcanic emission dispersion models rely on fixed-grid structures that often are not able to resolve the fine filamented structure of volcanic emissions being transported in the atmosphere. Here we extend an existing adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for volcanic emissions including the sedimentation of volcanic ash. The advection of volcanic emissions is driven by a precalculated wind field. For evaluation of the model, the explosive eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 is chosen, which was one of the largest eruptions in the 20th century. We compare our simulations of the climactic eruption on 15 June 1991 to satellite data of the Pinatubo ash cloud and evaluate different sets of input parameters. We could reproduce the general advection of the Pinatubo ash cloud and, owing to the adaptive mesh, simulations could be performed at a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost. Differences to the observed ash cloud are attributed to uncertainties in the input parameters and the course of Typhoon Yunya, which is probably not completely resolved in the wind data used to drive the model. The best results were achieved for simulations with multiple ash particle sizes.

Description: The orientation and tectonic regime of the observed crustal/lithospheric stress field contribute to our knowledge of different deformation processes occurring within the Earth's crust and lithosphere. In this study, we analyze the influence of the thermal and density structure of the upper mantle on the lithospheric stress field and topography. We use a 3-D lithosphere–asthenosphere numerical model with power-law rheology, coupled to a spectral mantle flow code at 300 km depth. Our results are validated against the World Stress Map 2016 (WSM2016) and the observation-based residual topography. We derive the upper mantle thermal structure from either a heat flow model combined with a seafloor age model (TM1) or a global S-wave velocity model (TM2). We show that lateral density heterogeneities in the upper 300 km have a limited influence on the modeled horizontal stress field as opposed to the resulting dynamic topography that appears more sensitive to such heterogeneities. The modeled stress field directions, using only the mantle heterogeneities below 300 km, are not perturbed much when the effects of lithosphere and crust above 300 km are added. In contrast, modeled stress magnitudes and dynamic topography are to a greater extent controlled by the upper mantle density structure. After correction for the chemical depletion of continents, the TM2 model leads to a much better fit with the observed residual topography giving a good correlation of 0.51 in continents, but this correction leads to no significant improvement of the fit between the WSM2016 and the resulting lithosphere stresses. In continental regions with abundant heat flow data, TM1 results in relatively small angular misfits. For example, in western Europe the misfit between the modeled and observation-based stress is 18.3°. Our findings emphasize that the relative contributions coming from shallow and deep mantle dynamic forces are quite different for the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography.

Description: Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.

Description: The GEOVIDE cruise, a collaborative project within the framework of the international GEOTRACES programme, was conducted along the French-led section in the North Atlantic Ocean (Section GA01), between 15 May and 30 June 2014. In this Special Issue, results from GEOVIDE, including physical oceanography and trace element and isotope cyclings, are presented among seventeen articles. Here, the scientific context, project objectives and scientific strategy of GEOVIDE are provided, along with an overview of the main results from the articles published in the special issue.

Description: The continually evolving large ice sheets present in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial cycle caused significant changes to river pathways both through directly blocking rivers and through glacial isostatic adjustment. Studies have shown these river pathway changes had a significant impact on the ocean circulation through changing the pattern of freshwater discharge into the oceans. A coupled Earth system model (ESM) simulation of the last glacial cycle thus requires a hydrological discharge model that uses a set of river pathways that evolve with Earth's changing orography while being able to reproduce the known present-day river network given the present-day orography. Here, we present a method for dynamically modelling river pathways that meets such requirements by applying predefined corrections to an evolving fine-scale orography (accounting for the changing ice sheets and isostatic rebound) each time the river directions are recalculated. The corrected orography thus produced is then used to create a set of fine-scale river pathways and these are then upscaled to a coarser scale on which an existing present-day hydrological discharge model within the JSBACH land surface model simulates the river flow. Tests show that this procedure reproduces the known present-day river network to a sufficient degree of accuracy and is able to simulate plausible paleo-river networks. It has also been shown this procedure can be run successfully multiple times as part of a transient coupled climate model simulation.

Description: The well-established dynamical global vegetation, hydrology, and crop growth model LPJmL is extended with a terrestrial nitrogen cycle to account for nutrient limitations. In particular, processes of soil nitrogen dynamics, plant uptake, nitrogen allocation, response of photosynthesis and maintenance respiration to varying nitrogen concentrations in plant organs, and agricultural nitrogen management are included in the model. All new model features are described in full detail and the results of a global simulation of the historic past (1901–2009) are presented for evaluation of the model performance. We find that the implementation of nitrogen limitation significantly improves the simulation of global patterns of crop productivity. Regional differences in crop productivity, which had to be calibrated via a scaling of the maximum leaf area index, can now largely be reproduced by the model, except for regions where fertilizer inputs and climate conditions are not the yield-limiting factors. Furthermore, it can be shown that land use has a strong influence on nitrogen losses, increasing leaching by 93%.

Description: Ocean-induced melting below ice shelves is one of the dominant drivers for mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet at present. An appropriate representation of sub-shelf melt rates is therefore essential for model simulations of marine-based ice sheet evolution. Continental-scale ice sheet models often rely on simple melt-parameterizations, in particular for long-term simulations, when fully coupled ice–ocean interaction becomes computationally too expensive. Such parameterizations can account for the influence of the local depth of the ice-shelf draft or its slope on melting. However, they do not capture the effect of ocean circulation underneath the ice shelf. Here we present the Potsdam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel (PICO), which simulates the vertical overturning circulation in ice-shelf cavities and thus enables the computation of sub-shelf melt rates consistent with this circulation. PICO is based on an ocean box model that coarsely resolves ice shelf cavities and uses a boundary layer melt formulation. We implement it as a module of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) and evaluate its performance under present-day conditions of the Southern Ocean. We identify a set of parameters that yield two-dimensional melt rate fields that qualitatively reproduce the typical pattern of comparably high melting near the grounding line and lower melting or refreezing towards the calving front. PICO captures the wide range of melt rates observed for Antarctic ice shelves, with an average of about 0.1m a−1 for cold sub-shelf cavities, for example, underneath Ross or Ronne ice shelves, to 16m a−1 for warm cavities such as in the Amundsen Sea region. This makes PICO a computationally feasible and more physical alternative to melt parameterizations purely based on ice draft geometry.

Description: In climate reanalyses for multi-decadal or longer scales with coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation models (CGCMs) it can be assumed that the growth of prediction errors arises chiefly from imprecisely known model parameters, which have a nonlinear relationship with the climate observations (paleoclimate proxies). Also, high-resolution CGCMs for climate analysis are extremely expensive to run, which constrains the applicability of assimilation schemes. In a model framework where we assume that model dynamic parameters account for (nearly) all forecast errors at observation times, we compare two computationally efficient iterative schemes for approximate nonlinear model parameter estimation and joint flux estimation (taking the specific shape of freshwater from melting in the Greenland ice sheet), and its physically consistent state. First, a trivial adaptation of the strong constraint incremental 4D-Var formulation leads to what we refer to as the parameter space iterative extended Kalman smoother (pIKS); a Gauss-Newton scheme. Second, a so-called parameter space fractional Kalman smoother (pFKS) is an alternative controlled-step line search, which can potentially be a more stable approach. While these iterative schemes have been used in data assimilation, we revisit them together within the context of parameter estimation in climate reanalysis, as compared to the more general 4D-Var formulation. Then, the two schemes are evaluated in numerical experiments with a simple 1D energy balance model (Ebm1D) and with a fully-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM v1.2). Firstly, with Ebm1D the pFKS obtains a cost function similar to the adjoint method with highly reduced computational cost, while an ensemble transform Kalman filter with an m = 60 ensemble size (ETKF60) behaves slightly worse. The pIKS behaves worse than the ETKF60, but an ETKF10 (m = 10) is even worst. Accordingly, with CESM we evaluate the pKFS and the ETKF60 along with an ETKF with Gaussian Anamorphosis (ETKF-GA60). From all the options, the pFKS has the lowest cost function and seems the favored overall option under heavy computational restrictions, but the ETKF obtains better estimates of the flux term.

Description: The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere.

Description: Paleorecords and modeling studies suggest that instabilities in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strongly affect the low-latitude climate, namely via feedbacks on the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Despite the pronounced millennial-scale overturning and climatic variability documented in the subpolar North Atlantic during the last interglacial period (MIS 5e), studies on cross-latitudinal teleconnections remain very limited. This precludes a full understanding of the mechanisms controlling subtropical climate evolution across the last warm cycle. Here, we present new planktic foraminiferal assemblage data combined with δ18O values in surface and thermocline-dwelling foraminifera from the Bahamas, a region ideally suited to studying past changes in the subtropical ocean and atmosphere. Our data reveal that the peak sea surface warmth during early MIS 5e was intersected by an abrupt millennial-scale cooling/salinification event, which was possibly associated with a sudden southward displacement of the mean annual ITCZ position. This atmospheric shift is, in turn, ascribed to the transitional climatic regime of early MIS 5e, which was characterized by persistent ocean freshening in the high latitudes and an unstable AMOC mode.

Description: Large-scale climatic forcing is impacting oceanic biogeochemical cycles and is expected to influence the water-column distribution of trace gases, including methane and nitrous oxide. Our ability as a scientific community to evaluate changes in the water-column inventories of methane and nitrous oxide depends largely on our capacity to obtain robust and accurate concentration measurements that can be validated across different laboratory groups. This study represents the first formal international intercomparison of oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements whereby participating laboratories received batches of seawater samples from the subtropical Pacific Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Additionally, compressed gas standards from the same calibration scale were distributed to the majority of participating laboratories to improve the analytical accuracy of the gas measurements. The computations used by each laboratory to derive the dissolved gas concentrations were also evaluated for inconsistencies (e.g., pressure and temperature corrections, solubility constants). The results from the intercomparison and intercalibration provided invaluable insights into methane and nitrous oxide measurements. It was observed that analyses of seawater samples with the lowest concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide had the lowest precisions. In comparison, while the analytical precision for samples with the highest concentrations of trace gases was better, the variability between the different laboratories was higher: 36% for methane and 27% for nitrous oxide. In addition, the comparison of different batches of seawater samples with methane and nitrous oxide concentrations that ranged over an order of magnitude revealed the ramifications of different calibration procedures for each trace gas. Finally, this study builds upon the intercomparison results to develop recommendations for improving oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements, with the aim of precluding future analytical discrepancies between laboratories.

Description: This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates – internally consistently – the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

Description: Data assimilation (DA) methods have been used recently to constrain the climate model forecasts by paleo-proxy records. Both DA and climate models are computationally very expensive. Moreover, in paleo-DA, the time step of consequence for observations is usually too long for a dynamical model to follow the previous analysis state and the chaotic behavior of the model becomes dominant. The majority of recent paleoclimate studies using DA have performed low- or intermediate-resolution global simulations along with an "off-line" DA approach. In an off-line DA, the re-initialization cycle is completely removed after the assimilation step. In this paper, we design a computationally affordable DA to assimilate yearly pseudo-observations and real observations into an ensemble of COSMO-CLM high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations over Europe, for which the ensemble members slightly differ in boundary and initial conditions. Within a perfect model experiment, the performance of the applied DA scheme is evaluated with respect to its sensitivity to the noise levels of pseudo-observations. It was observed that the injected bias in the pseudo-observations linearly impacts the DA skill. Such experiments can serve as a tool for the selection of proxy records, which can potentially reduce the state estimation error when they are assimilated. Additionally, the sensitivity of COSMO-CLM to the boundary conditions is addressed. The geographical regions where the model exhibits high internal variability are identified. Two sets of experiments are conducted by averaging the observations over summer and winter. Furthermore, the effect of the spurious correlations within the observation space is studied and a optimal correlation radius, within which the observations are assumed to be correlated, is detected. Finally, the pollen-based reconstructed quantities at the mid-Holocene are assimilated into the RCM and the performance is evaluated against a test dataset. We conclude that the DA approach is a promising tool for creating high-resolution yearly analysis quantities. The affordable DA method can be applied to efficiently improve climate field reconstruction efforts by combining high-resolution paleoclimate simulations and the available proxy records.

Description: The structural framework provided by corals is crucial for reef ecosystem function and services, but high seawater temperatures can be detrimental to the calcification capacity of reef-building organisms. The Red Sea is very warm, but total alkalinity (TA) is naturally high and beneficial for reef accretion. To date, we know little about how such detrimental and beneficial abiotic factors affect each other and the balance between calcification and erosion on Red Sea coral reefs, i.e., overall reef growth, in this unique ocean basin. To provide estimates of present-day reef growth dynamics in the central Red Sea, we measured two metrics of reef growth, i.e., in situ net-accretion/-erosion rates (Gnet) determined by deployment of limestone blocks and ecosystem-scale carbonate budgets (Gbudget), along a cross-shelf gradient (25km, encompassing nearshore, midshore, and offshore reefs). Along this gradient, we assessed multiple abiotic (i.e., temperature, salinity, diurnal pH fluctuation, inorganic nutrients, and TA) and biotic (i.e., calcifier and epilithic bioeroder communities) variables. Both reef growth metrics revealed similar patterns from nearshore to offshore: net-erosive, neutral, and net-accretion states. The average cross-shelf Gbudget was 0.66kg CaCO3m−2yr−1, with the highest budget of 2.44kg CaCO3m−2yr−1 measured in the offshore reef. These data are comparable to the contemporary Gbudgets from the western Atlantic and Indian oceans, but lie well below "optimal reef production" (5–10kg CaCO3m−2yr−1) and below maxima recently recorded in remote high coral cover reef sites. However, the erosive forces observed in the Red Sea nearshore reef contributed less than observed elsewhere. A higher TA accompanied reef growth across the shelf gradient, whereas stronger diurnal pH fluctuations were associated with negative carbonate budgets. Noteworthy for this oligotrophic region was the positive effect of phosphate, which is a central micronutrient for reef building corals. While parrotfish contributed substantially to bioerosion, our dataset also highlights coralline algae as important local reef builders. Altogether, our study establishes a baseline for reef growth in the central Red Sea that should be useful in assessing trajectories of reef growth capacity under current and future ocean scenarios.

Description: Although coccolithophore physiological responses to CO2-induced changes in seawater carbonate chemistry have been widely studied in the past, there is limited knowledge on the variability of physiological responses between populations from different areas. In the present study, we investigated the specific responses of growth, particulate organic (POC) and inorganic carbon (PIC) production rates of three populations of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi from three regions in the North Atlantic Ocean (Azores: six strains, Canary Islands: five strains, and Norwegian coast near Bergen: six strains) to a CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) range from 120 to 2630 µatm. Physiological rates of each population and individual strain increased with rising pCO2 levels, reached a maximum and declined thereafter. Optimal pCO2 for growth, POC production rates, and tolerance to low pH (i.e., high proton concentration) was significantly higher in an E. huxleyi population isolated from the Norwegian coast than in those isolated near the Azores and Canary Islands. This may be due to the large environmental variability including large pCO2 and pH fluctuations in coastal waters off Bergen compared to the rather stable oceanic conditions at the other two sites. Maximum growth and POC production rates of the Azores and Bergen populations were similar and significantly higher than that of the Canary Islands population. This pattern could be driven by temperature–CO2 interactions where the chosen incubation temperature (16 °C) was slightly below what strains isolated near the Canary Islands normally experience. Our results indicate adaptation of E. huxleyi to their local environmental conditions and the existence of distinct E. huxleyi populations. Within each population, different growth, POC, and PIC production rates at different pCO2 levels indicated strain-specific phenotypic plasticity. Accounting for this variability is important to understand how or whether E. huxleyi might adapt to rising CO2 levels.

Description: The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening "severe, pervasive and irreversible" impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate "reversibility", the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.〉

Description: Parameterizations of surface ocean isoprene concentrations are numerous, despite the lack of source/sink process understanding. Here we present isoprene and related field measurements in the mixed layer from the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean to investigate the production and consumption rates in two contrasting regions, namely oligotrophic open ocean and the coastal upwelling region. Our data show that the ability of different phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) to produce isoprene seems to be mainly influenced by light, ocean temperature, and salinity. Our field measurements also demonstrate that nutrient availability seems to have a direct influence on the isoprene production. With the help of pigment data, we calculate in-field isoprene production rates for different PFTs under varying biogeochemical and physical conditions. Using these new calculated production rates, we demonstrate that an additional significant and variable loss, besides a known chemical loss and a loss due to air–sea gas exchange, is needed to explain the measured isoprene concentration. We hypothesize that this loss, with a lifetime for isoprene between 10 and 100 days depending on the ocean region, is potentially due to degradation or consumption by bacteria.

Description: The impact of the positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the extension of the poorly oxygenated regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean was assessed using a coupled ocean circulation–biogeochemical model. We show that during a “typical” PDO-positive phase the volume of the suboxic regions expands by 7 % over 50 years due to a slowdown of the large-scale circulation related to the decrease in the intensity of the trade winds. Changes in oxygen levels are mostly controlled by advective processes between 10∘ N and 10∘ S, whereas diffusive processes are dominant poleward of 10∘: in a “typical” PDO-positive phase the sluggish equatorial current system provides less oxygen to the eastern equatorial part of the basin while the oxygen transport by diffusive processes significantly decreases south of 10∘ S. The suboxic region located north of 10∘ N displays less sensitivity to the phase of the PDO as the local upwelling-related processes play a dominant role compared to the large-scale circulation in setting the oxygen concentration. Our study suggests that the prevailing PDO-positive conditions since 1975 may explain a significant part of the current deoxygenation occurring in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Description: Climate and marine biogeochemistry changes over the Holocene are investigated based on transient global climate and biogeochemistry model simulations over the last 9500 years. The simulations are forced by accelerated and non-accelerated orbital parameters, respectively, and atmospheric PCO2, CH4, and N2O. The analysis focusses on key climatic parameters of relevance to the marine biogeochemistry, and on the physical and biogeochemical processes that drive atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes and changes in the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). The simulated global mean ocean temperature is characterized by a mid-Holocene cooling and a late Holocene warming, a common feature among Holocene climate simulations which, however, contradicts a proxy-derived mid-Holocene climate optimum. As the most significant result, and only in the non-accelerated simulation, we find a substantial increase in volume of the OMZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) continuing into the late Holocene. The concurrent increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and age of the water mass within the EEP OMZ can be attributed to a weakening of the deep northward inflow into the Pacific. This results in a large-scale mid-to-late Holocene increase in AOU in most of the Pacific and hence the source regions of the EEP OMZ waters. The simulated expansion of the EEP OMZ raises the question of whether the deoxygenation that has been observed over the last 5 decades could be a - perhaps accelerated - continuation of an orbitally driven decline in oxygen. Changes in global mean biological production and export of detritus remain of the order of 10 %, with generally lower values in the mid-Holocene. The simulated atmosphere-ocean CO2 flux would result in atmospheric pCO2 changes of similar magnitudes to those observed for the Holocene, but with different timing. More technically, as the increase in EEP OMZ volume can only be simulated with the non-accelerated model simulation, non-accelerated model simulations are required for an analysis of the marine biogeochemistry in the Holocene. Notably, the long control experiment also displays similar magnitude variability to the transient experiment for some parameters. This indicates that also long control runs are required when investigating Holocene climate and marine biogeochemistry, and that some of the Holocene variations could be attributed to internal variability of the atmosphere-ocean system.