ALBERT

All Library Books, journals and Electronic Records Telegrafenberg

X
feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Detection of long-range dependence : Applications in climatology and hydrology (2007)
    Potsdam
    Details Availability
    Call number: PIK M 370-07-0295
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 165 S.
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Branch Library: PIK Library
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    BOOK
    Link to Library Catalog
    get availability status
  • 2
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Toward an adequate level of detail in flood risk assessments (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Flood risk assessments require different disciplines to understand and model the underlying components hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Many methods and data sets have been refined considerably to cover more details of spatial, temporal, or process information. We compile case studies indicating that refined methods and data have a considerable effect on the overall assessment of flood risk. But are these improvements worth the effort? The adequate level of detail is typically unknown and prioritization of improvements in a specific component is hampered by the lack of an overarching view on flood risk. Consequently, creating the dilemma of potentially being too greedy or too wasteful with the resources available for a risk assessment. A “sweet spot” between those two would use methods and data sets that cover all relevant known processes without using resources inefficiently. We provide three key questions as a qualitative guidance toward this “sweet spot.” For quantitative decision support, more overarching case studies in various contexts are needed to reveal the sensitivity of the overall flood risk to individual components. This could also support the anticipation of unforeseen events like the flood event in Germany and Belgium in 2021 and increase the reliability of flood risk assessments.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: BMBF http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Federal Environment Agency http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010809
    Description: http://howas21.gfz-potsdam.de/howas21/
    Description: https://www.umwelt.niedersachsen.de/startseite/themen/wasser/hochwasser_amp_kustenschutz/hochwasserrisikomanagement_richtlinie/hochwassergefahren_und_hochwasserrisikokarten/hochwasserkarten-121920.html
    Description: https://download.geofabrik.de/europe/germany.html
    Description: https://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/list-of-components/EMSN024
    Description: https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/id-0054
    Description: https://oasishub.co/dataset/surface-water-flooding-footprinthurricane-harvey-august-2017-jba
    Description: https://www.wasser.sachsen.de/hochwassergefahrenkarte-11915.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; decision support ; extreme events ; integrated flood risk management ; risk assessment
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    CITATION GEO-LEO
  • 3
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Berlin Dahlem precipitation time-series 2001-2013 (2017)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Ritschel, Christoph; Ulbrich, Uwe; Névir, Peter; Rust, Henning (2017): Precipitation extremes on multiple timescales - Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model and intensity-duration-frequency curves. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 21(12), 6501-6517, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6501-2017
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: For several hydrological modelling tasks, precipitation time-series with a high (i.e. sub-daily) resolution are indispensable. This data is, however, not always available and thus model simulations are used to compensate. A canonical class of stochastic models for sub-daily precipitation are Poisson-cluster processes, with the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model (BLRPM) as a prominent representative. The BLRPM has been shown to well reproduce certain characteristics found in observations. Our focus is on intensity-duration-frequency relationship (IDF), which are of particular interest in risk assessment. Based on a high resolution precipitation time-series (5-min) from Berlin-Dahlem, BLRPM parameters are estimated and IDF curves are obtained on the one hand directly from the observations and on the other hand from BLRPM simulations. Comparing the resulting IDF curves suggests that the BLRPM is able to reproduce main features of IDF statistics across several durations but cannot capture singular events (here an event of magnitude 5 times larger than the second larges event). Here, IDF curves are estimated based on a parametric model for the duration dependence of the scale parameter in the General Extreme Value distribution; this allows to obtain a consistent set of curves over all durations. We use the BLRPM to investigate the validity of this approach based on simulated long time series.
    Keywords: Berlin, Germany; Berlin-Dahlem_BotGarden; DATE/TIME; ORDINAL NUMBER; Precipitation; Tipping bucket; Weather station/meteorological observation; WST
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 113952 data points
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    DATA PANGAEA
  • 4
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    MiKlip: A National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction (2016)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-12-01
    Description: Mittelfristige Klimaprognose (MiKlip), an 8-yr German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that target future operational use. Three prediction system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multiyear-mean European summer surface temperatures, extratropical cyclone tracks, the quasi-biennial oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization. Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of 2–3 years.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 5
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Synoptic airflow and UK daily precipitation extremes (2010)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2010-01-23
    Print ISSN: 1386-1999
    Electronic ISSN: 1572-915X
    Topics: Mathematics
    Published by Springer
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 6
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    From metastable to coherent sets— Time-discretization schemes (2019)
    American Institute of Physics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-01-01
    Print ISSN: 1054-1500
    Electronic ISSN: 1089-7682
    Topics: Physics
    Published by American Institute of Physics
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 7
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents (2020)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-29
    Description: Impacts of weather on road accidents have been identified in several studies with a focus mainly on monthly or daily accident counts. This study investigates hourly probabilities of road accidents caused by adverse weather conditions in Germany on the spatial scale of administrative districts using logistic regression models. Including meteorological predictor variables from radar-based precipitation estimates, high-resolution reanalysis and weather forecasts improves the prediction of accident probability compared to models without weather information. For example, the percentage of correctly predicted accidents (hit rate) is increased from 30 % to 70 %, while keeping the percentage of wrongly predicted accidents (false-alarm rate) constant at 20 %. When using ensemble weather forecasts up to 21 h instead of radar and reanalysis data, the decline in model performance is negligible. Accident probability has a nonlinear relationship with precipitation. Given an hourly precipitation sum of 1 mm, accident probabilities are approximately 5 times larger at negative temperatures compared to positive temperatures. The findings are relevant in the context of impact-based warnings for road users, road maintenance, traffic management and rescue forces.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 8
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    A multi-model comparison of meteorological drivers of surface ozone over Europe (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-08-24
    Description: The implementation of European emission abatement strategies has led to a significant reduction in the emissions of ozone precursors during the last decade. Ground-level ozone is also influenced by meteorological factors such as temperature, which exhibit interannual variability and are expected to change in the future. The impacts of climate change on air quality are usually investigated through air-quality models that simulate interactions between emissions, meteorology and chemistry. Within a multi-model assessment, this study aims to better understand how air-quality models represent the relationship between meteorological variables and surface ozone concentrations over Europe. A multiple linear regression (MLR) approach is applied to observed and modelled time series across 10 European regions in springtime and summertime for the period of 2000–2010 for both models and observations. Overall, the air-quality models are in better agreement with observations in summertime than in springtime and particularly in certain regions, such as France, central Europe or eastern Europe, where local meteorological variables show a strong influence on surface ozone concentrations. Larger discrepancies are found for the southern regions, such as the Balkans, the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean basin, especially in springtime. We show that the air-quality models do not properly reproduce the sensitivity of surface ozone to some of the main meteorological drivers, such as maximum temperature, relative humidity and surface solar radiation. Specifically, all air-quality models show more limitations in capturing the strength of the ozone–relative-humidity relationship detected in the observed time series in most of the regions, for both seasons. Here, we speculate that dry-deposition schemes in the air-quality models might play an essential role in capturing this relationship. We further quantify the relationship between ozone and maximum temperature (mo3−T, climate penalty) in observations and air-quality models. In summertime, most of the air-quality models are able to reproduce the observed climate penalty reasonably well in certain regions such as France, central Europe and northern Italy. However, larger discrepancies are found in springtime, where air-quality models tend to overestimate the magnitude of the observed climate penalty.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 9
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Is it feasible to estimate radiosonde biases from interlaced measurements? (2018)
    Copernicus
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-05-24
    Description: Upper-air measurements of essential climate variables (ECVs), such as temperature, are crucial for climate monitoring and climate change detection. Because of the internal variability of the climate system, many decades of measurements are typically required to robustly detect any trend in the climate data record. It is imperative for the records to be temporally homogeneous over many decades to confidently estimate any trend. Historically, records of upper-air measurements were primarily made for short-term weather forecasts and as such are seldom suitable for studying long-term climate change as they lack the required continuity and homogeneity. Recognizing this, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) has been established to provide reference-quality measurements of climate variables, such as temperature, pressure, and humidity, together with well-characterized and traceable estimates of the measurement uncertainty. To ensure that GRUAN data products are suitable to detect climate change, a scientifically robust instrument replacement strategy must always be adopted whenever there is a change in instrumentation. By fully characterizing any systematic differences between the old and new measurement system a temporally homogeneous data series can be created. One strategy is to operate both the old and new instruments in tandem for some overlap period to characterize any inter-instrument biases. However, this strategy can be prohibitively expensive at measurement sites operated by national weather services or research institutes. An alternative strategy that has been proposed is to alternate between the old and new instruments, so-called interlacing, and then statistically derive the systematic biases between the two instruments. Here we investigate the feasibility of such an approach specifically for radiosondes, i.e. flying the old and new instruments on alternating days. Synthetic data sets are used to explore the applicability of this statistical approach to radiosonde change management.
    Print ISSN: 1867-1381
    Electronic ISSN: 1867-8548
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 10
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    The diurnal nature of future extreme precipitation intensification (2019)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-05-23
    Description: Short-duration, high-impact precipitation events in the extratropics are invariably convective in nature, typically occur during the summer, and are projected to intensify under climate change. The occurrence of convective precipitation is strongly regulated by the diurnal convective cycle, peaking in the late afternoon. Here we perform very high resolution (convection-permitting) regional climate model simulations to study the scaling of extreme precipitation under climate change across the diurnal cycle. We show that the future intensification of extreme precipitation has a strong diurnal signal and that intraday scaling far in excess of overall scaling, and indeed thermodynamic expectations, is possible. We additionally show that, under a strong climate change scenario, the probability maximum for the occurrence of heavy to extreme precipitation may shift from late afternoon to the overnight/morning period. We further identify the thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms which modify future extreme environments, explaining both the future scaling's diurnal signal and departure from thermodynamic expectations. ©2019. The Authors.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Geophysical Union
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...