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  • Springer  (73,359)
  • Copernicus  (4,165)
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
  • 2020-2022  (77,524)
  • 1965-1969
  • 2020  (77,524)
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  • 1
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    Springer
    In:  ISSI Scientific Report Series
    Publication Date: 2020-05-09
    Description: This open access book provides a comprehensive toolbox of analysis techniques for ionospheric multi-satellite missions. The immediate need for this volume was motivated by the ongoing ESA Swarm satellite mission, but the tools that are described are general and can be used for any future ionospheric multi-satellite mission with comparable instrumentation. In addition to researching the immediate plasma environment and its coupling to other regions, such a mission aims to study the Earth’s main magnetic field and its anomalies caused by core, mantle, or crustal sources. The parameters for carrying out this kind of work are examined in these chapters. Besides currents, electric fields, and plasma convection, these parameters include ionospheric conductance, Joule heating, neutral gas densities, and neutral winds.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    Springer
    In:  Earth & Environmental Science
    Publication Date: 2020-05-14
    Description: This book is the second edition of the well-known textbook Modelling Rock Fracturing Processes. The new and extended edition provides the theoretical background of rock fracture mechanics used for modelling of 2-D and 3-D geomechanics problems and processes. Fundamentals of rock fracture mechanics integrated with experimental studies of rock fracturing processes are highlighted. The computer programs FRACOD 2D and 3D are used to analyse fracture initiation and propagation for the three fracture modes: Mode I, II and III. Coupled fracture modelling with other continuous and distinct element codes including FLAC, PFC, RFPA, TOUGH are also described. A series of applications of fracture modelling with importance for modern society is presented and discussed by distinguished rock fracture modelling experts.
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/book
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: Reliable automatic procedure for locating earthquake in quasi-real time is strongly needed for seismic warning system, earthquake preparedness, and producing shaking maps. The reliability of an automatic location algorithm is influenced by several factors such as errors in picking seismic phases, network geometry, and velocity model uncertainties. The main purpose of this work is to investigate the performances of different automatic procedures to choose the most suitable one to be applied for the quasi-real-time earthquake locations in northwestern Italy. The reliability of two automatic-picking algorithms (one based on the Characteristic Function (CF) analysis, CF picker, and the other one based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), AIC picker) and two location methods (“Hypoellipse” and “NonLinLoc” codes) is analysed by comparing the automatically determined hypocentral coordinates with reference ones. Reference locations are computed by the “Hypoellipse” code considering manually revised data and tested using quarry blasts. The comparison is made on a dataset composed by 575 seismic events for the period 2000–2007 as recorded by the Regional Seismic network of Northwestern Italy. For P phases, similar results, in terms of both amount of detected picks and magnitude of travel time differences with respect to manual picks, are obtained applying the AIC and the CF picker; on the contrary, for S phases, the AIC picker seems to provide a significant greater number of readings than the CF picker. Furthermore, the “NonLin- Loc” software (applied to a 3D velocity model) is proved to be more reliable than the “Hypoellipse” code (applied to layered 1D velocity models), leading to more reliable automatic locations also when outliers (wrong picks) are present.
    Description: Published
    Description: 393–411
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-11-12
    Description: Public concern about anthropogenic seismic- ity in Italy first arose in the aftermath of the deadly M ≈ 6 earthquakes that hit the Emilia-Romagna region (northern Italy) in May 2012. As these events occurred in a (tectonically active) region of oil and gas production and storage, the question was raised, whether stress perturbations due to underground industrial activities could have induced or triggered the shocks. Following expert recommendations, in 2014, the Italian Oil & Gas Safety Authority (DGS-UNMIG, Ministry of Economic Development) published guidelines (ILG - Indirizzi e linee guida per il monitoraggio della sismicità, delle deformazioni del suolo e delle pressioni di poro nell’ambito delle attività antropiche), describing regula- tions regarding hydrocarbon extraction, waste-water in- jection and gas storage that could also be adapted to other technologies, such as dams, geothermal systems, CO2 storage, and mining. The ILG describe the frame- work for the different actors involved in monitoring activities, their relationship and responsibilities, the procedure to be followed in case of variations of mon- itored parameters, the need for in-depth scientific anal- yses, the definition of different alert levels, their mean- ing and the parameters to be used to activate such alerts. Four alert levels are defined, the transition among which follows a decision to be taken jointly by relevant au- thorities and industrial operator on the basis of evalua- tion of several monitored parameters (micro-seismicity, ground deformation, pore pressure) carried on by a scientific-technical agency. Only in the case of liquid reinjection, the alert levels are automatically activated on the basis of exceedance of thresholds for earthquake magnitude and ground shaking – in what is generally known as a Traffic Light System (TLS). Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia has been charged by the Italian oil and gas safety authority (DGS- UNMIG) to apply the ILG in three test cases (two oil extraction and one gas storage plants). The ILG indeed represent a very important and positive innovation, as they constitute official guidelines to coherently regulate monitoring activity on a national scale. While pilot studies are still mostly under way, we may point out merits of the whole framework, and a few possible critical issues, requiring special care in the implementa- tion. Attention areas of adjacent reservoirs, possibly licenced to different operators, may overlap, hence mak- ing the point for joint monitoring, also in view of the possible interaction between stress changes related to the different reservoirs. The prescribed initial blank- level monitoring stage, aimed at assessing background seismicity, may lose significance in case of nearby ac- tive production. Magnitude – a critical parameter used to define a possible step-up in activation levels – has inherent uncertainty and can be evaluated using differ- ent scales. A final comment considers the fact that relevance of TLS, most frequently used in hydraulic fracturing operations, may not be high in case of trig- gered tectonic events.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1015–1028
    Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e sorveglianza
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Anthropogenic seismicity ; Alert system ; Monitoring guidelines ; 04.06. Seismology ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2020-11-09
    Description: This work presents the first chemical and isotopic (δ13C-CO2, δ13C-CH4, 3He, 4He, 20Ne, 40Ar, 36Ar, δ18O, and δD) data for fluid discharges fromGuallatiri volcano, a remote and massive stratovolcano, which is considered as the second most active volcano of the Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ) in northern Chile. Fumarolic gases had outlet temperatures of between 80.2 and 265 °C, and showed a significant magmatic fluid contribution marked by the occurrence of SO2, HCl, and HF that are partially scrubbed by a hydrothermal aquifer. The helium isotope ratios (〈 3.2) were relatively low compared to those of other active volcanoes in CVZ, possibly due to contamination of the magmatic source by 4He-rich crust and/or crustal fluid addition to the hydrothermal reservoir. Geothermometry in the H2O-CO2-CO-H2-CH4 system suggests equilibrium temperatures of up to 320 °C attained in a vapor phase at redox conditions intermediate between those typical of hydrothermal and magmatic environments. Thermal springs located 12 km northwest of the volcano’s summit had outlet temperatures of up to 50.1 °C, neutral to slightly basic pH, and a sodium bicarbonate composition, typical of distal fluid discharges in volcanic systems. Cold springs at the base of the volcanic edifice, showing a calcium sulfate composition, were likely produced by interaction of shallow meteoric water with CO2- andH2S-rich gases. A geochemical conceptual model was constructed to graphically represent these results, which can be used as an indication for future geochemical monitoring and volcanic hazard assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: id 57
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2020-12-18
    Description: In this paper, we present results of the reconstruction of the total grain size distribution (TGSD) of the material erupted during explosive volcanic eruptions at Campi Flegrei (Italy) considering all components (juvenile, lithic and crystal clasts). To date, the few TGSDs made available have been mostly reconstructed by assuming that the tephra deposits consisted of only one component. This simplification can introduce substantial bias in the interpretation of magma fragmentation mechanisms and significantly affect ash dispersion forecasts, since each tephra component has specific aerodynamic characteristics. By means of field investigations and laboratory analyses on samples collected from deposits of the Agnano-Monte Spina and Astroni eruptions, we reconstructed the TGSDs of juvenile, lithic and crystal components via the Voronoi tessellation method. Our results show how the systematic reconstruction of a TGSD, from the component-specific to the bulk TGSD, can provide important information on magma fragmentation mechanisms and wall-rock erosion processes. Results confirm that the bulk TGSD is the combination of the merging of different component subpopulations, according to their own TGSD, density and relative mass proportions. In addition, the integration of component analysis, TGSD and settling velocity data allowed characterization of the aerodynamic behaviour of each component at variable distances from the vent, which can be related to their own parent grain size distribution. The integration of new data from distal tephra deposits for the considered eruptions has thus allowed a reassessment of the erupted volumes of eruptions considered in this research, which are now 3.17 and 0.63 km3, for Agnano-Monte Spina and Astroni, respectively.
    Description: Published
    Description: id 31
    Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Several months of ambient seismic noise recordings are used for investigating the distribution of elastic properties in the Fucino Plain, one of the largest intermontane tectonic depressions of the Italian Apennine chain (Central Italy). The Plain is characterized by a low level of seismicity but the presence of several active faults makes it an Italian area of high seismic hazard. The most recent and strongest seismic event in Fucino Plain occurred in the 1915 (Avezzano earthquake) and it represents one of the most energetic events (Ms = 7.0) happened in central Apennines. Inter-stations Green’s functions are reconstructed by the cross-correlation of continuous ambient noise data recorded from twelve seismic velocimeters deployed around the Avezzano city, and organized in two different temporally sub-networks. The aim of cross-correlation analysis is to extract surface waves from Green’s functions for investigating the dispersive response of the structure. We analyzed the temporal stability of the cross-correlated signals that is used as an indicator of reliability of measurements and as criteria to select the Green’s functions to analyze
    Description: Published
    Description: 1173-1176
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Keywords: Cross correlation ; Noise ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-10-20
    Description: Pyrite and organic matter closely coexist in some hydrothermally-altered gabbroic xenoliths from the Hyblean Plateau, Sicily. The representative sample consists of plagioclase, Fe-oxides, clinopyroxene, pyrite and minor amounts of many other minerals. Plagioclase displays incipient albitization, clinopyroxene is deeply corroded. Pyrite grains are widely replaced by spongy-textured magnetite, which locally hosts Ca-(and Fe-)sulfate micrograins and blebs of condensed organic matter. Whole-rock trace element distribution evidences that incompatible elements, particularly the fluid-mobile Ba, U and Pb, are significantly enriched with respect to N-MORB values. The mineralogical and geochemical characteristics of the sample, and its U-Pb zircon age of 216.9 ± 6.7 MA, conform to the xenolith-based viewpoint that the unexposed Hyblean basement is a relict of the Ionian Tethys lithospheric domain, mostly consisting of abyssal-type serpentinized peridotites with small gabbroic intrusions. Circulating hydrothermal fluids there favored the formation of hydrocarbons trough Fischer-Tropsch-type organic synthesis, giving also rise to sulfidization episodes. Subsequent variations in temperature and redox conditions of the system induced partial de-sulfidization, Fe-oxides precipitation and sulfate-forming reactions, also promoting poly-condensation and aromatization of the already-formed hydrocarbons. Here we show organic matter adhering to a crystal face of a microscopic pyrite grain. Pyrite surfaces, as abiotic analogues of enzymes, can adsorb and concentrate organic molecules, also acting as catalysts for a broad range of proto-biochemical reactions. The present data therefore may support established abiogenesis models suggesting that pyrite surfaces carried out primitive metabolic cycles in suitable environments of the early Earth, such as endolithic recesses in mafic rocks permeated by hydrothermal fluids.
    Description: Published
    Description: 19-47
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Abiogenesis ; FTT synthesis ; Hydrothermal system ; Pyrite ; Sicily ; Xenoliths
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-10-22
    Description: The earthquake occured in Tohoku (Japan) in 2011 showed that no matter how outstanding is the model of the mitigation of natural hazard, an earthquake can always surprise any studied attempt to contain a tsunami. I report this extreme example to draw the reader attention on how strong should be the commitment of the society in producing the optimal conditions to face natural hazard. Every country has a peculiar social context. If in the past we considered this as a secondary aspect, now we are obliged to recognize that the social context is of main importance when promoting mitigation of natural hazard. In this occasion I would like to refer to my experience as an educator in my country. Italy is a country where it is difficult to promote a dialogue between the Institutions and the citizens. The dialogue is difficult also among the communities of engineers, geologists and politicians. There is still a great confusion on the attribution of tasks and a lot of problems of difficult solution are related to corruption. In this context, education can play a crucial role and should be intensively addressed to promote geo-awareness in the citizens. People should learn about the geological site where their houses are built and get all the info necessary to understand if it has been done according to the law. Only in this way citizens become an active agent in promoting those changes without which an efficacious mitigation of natural hazard is impossible.
    Description: Published
    Description: 85-88
    Description: 3TM. Comunicazione
    Keywords: Risk communication, Earth Education, Public Awareness ; 05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2020-11-30
    Description: Buildings close to each other can perform different behaviour despite its similar seismic vulnerability. This effect is mainly due to the local seismic response connected to the characteristics of the shallow soil layers, especially when we move away from the epicentral area and the near field motion reduces its importance among the total amount of shaking. In this paper we show some results of the microzonation project of the Avezzano municipality, a town located in the southwestern portion of the Abruzzi region, which experienced the severe effects of the January 13th, 1915 M 7.0 earthquake. Starting from a particularly detailed knowledge of the geological characteristics of outcropping lithologies and inferring the trend of subsoil geometries, we explored the role played by the near-surface geology in causing variability of the ground motion by analysing a large database of earthquakes and microtremor recordings acquired by temporary seismological networks using classical site-reference and non-reference spectral techniques. Based on the obtained results we can seismically characterize all the municipal territory not only in terms of fundamental resonance frequency, useful in drawing maps of seismic microzonation and design geological sections, but also of amplification factors helpful in verifying numerical modelling of seismic response as required by national microzonation guidelines. We have also found many criticisms that need a more detailed analysis in order to establish the cause of these anomalies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1153-1157
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Keywords: Microzonation ; Site response ; Spectral techniques ; Seismic amplification ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: Sub-surface operations for energy production such as gas storage, fluid reinjection or hydraulic fracking may modify the physical properties of the rocks, in particular the seismic velocity and the anelastic attenuation. The aim of the present study is to investigate, through a synthetic test, the possibility of using empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to observe the variations in the reservoir. In the synthetic test, we reproduce the expected seismic activity (in terms of rate, focal mechanisms, stress drop and the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter) and the variation of medium properties in terms of the quality factor Q induced by a fluid injection experiment. In practice, peak-ground velocity data of the simulated earthquakes during the field operations are used to update the coefficients of a reference GMPE in order to test whether the coefficients are able to capture the medium properties variation. The results of the test show that the coefficients of the GMPE vary during the simulated field operations revealing their sensitivity to the variation of the anelastic attenuation. The proposed approach is suggested as a promising tool that, if confirmed by real data analysis, could be used for monitoring and interpreting induced seismicity in addition to more conventional techniques.
    Description: for Clean Energy) project, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation action, under grant agreement No 764810, and was partially funded by the PRIN Project MATISSE (Bando 2017, Prot. 20177EPPN2).
    Description: Published
    Description: 723–735
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Induced seismicity ; Anelastic attenuation ; Ground motion predictive equations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
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    Springer
    Publication Date: 2020-11-25
    Description: Relative and absolute gravimetric measurements are carried out for metrological, geodetic and geophysical (structural and dynamic) studies. Gravimetry is largely used in Italy since long time for vast set of studies. Both relative and absolute measurements are carried out in several fields of geodesy, geophysics and geodynamic with different approaches. After a brief historical excursus, the paper presents the State of the Art of “Modern” Gravimetry in Italy in its various applications, together the main available results and products, with particular attention to: - Development of modern gravimetry in Italy: from relative to absolute measurements. - Italian Reference Gravity Networks: state of the art - The Italian gravimetric map: its evolution over time, data, the present-day status and related products. - Dynamic gravimetry: examples of applications in geodynamical areas. Finally, suggestions for future perspectives for gravimetry in Italy are outlined.
    Description: Published
    Description: 35–48
    Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e sorveglianza
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Gravimetria ; Reti di riferimento e monitoraggio
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2020-11-30
    Description: This work aimed to study geochemical data, composed of major and trace elements describing volcanic rocks collected from the Campanian active volcanoes of Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei and Ischia Island. The data were analyzed through the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) unsupervised neural net. SOM is able to group the input data into clusters according to their intrinsic similarities without using any information derived from previous geochemical-petrological considerations. The net was trained on a dataset of 276 geochemical patterns of which 96 belonged to Ischia, 94 to Vesuvius and 86 to Campi Flegrei volcanoes. Two investigations were carried out. The first one aimed to cluster geochemical data mainly characterizing the type of volcanic rocks of the three volcanic areas. The SOM clustering well grouped the oldest volcanic products of Ischia, Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei identifying a similar behaviour for the rocks emplaced in the oldest activity periods (〉19 ka), and showing their different evolution over time. In the second test, devoted to inferring information on the magmatic source, the ratios of significant trace elements and K2O/Na2O have been used as input data. The SOM results highlighted a high degree of affinity between the geochemical element ratios of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei that were separated from the products of Ischia. This result was also evidenced through isotope ratios by using traditional two-dimensional diagrams.
    Description: Published
    Description: 175-184
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2020-11-25
    Description: Over the past few decades, substantial progress has been made to overcome the technical difficulties of continuously measuring volcanic SO2 emissions. However, measurements of CO2 emissions still present many difficulties, partly due to the lack of instruments that can directly measure CO2 emissions and partly due to its strong atmospheric background. In order to overcome these difficulties, a commonly taken approach is to combine differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) by using NOVAC scan-DOAS instruments for continuous measurements of crateric SO2 emissions, and electrochemical/NDIR multi-component gas analyser system (multi-GAS) instruments for measuring CO2/SO2 ratios of excerpts of the volcanic plume. This study aims to quantify the representativeness of excerpts of CO2/SO2 ratios measured by Multi-GAS as a fraction of the whole plume composition, by comparison with simultaneously measured CO2/SO2 ratios using cross-crater Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Two study cases are presented: Telica volcano (Nicaragua), with a homogenous plume, quiescent degassing from a deep source and ambient temperature, and Turrialba volcano (Costa Rica), which has a non-homogeneous plume from three main sources with different compositions and temperatures. Our comparison shows that in our “easier case” (Telica), FTIR and Multi-GAS CO2/SO2 ratios agree within a factor about 3 %. In our “complicated case” (Turrialba), Multi-GAS and FTIR yield CO2/SO2 ratios differing by approximately 13–25 % at most. These results suggest that a fair estimation of volcanic CO2 emissions can be provided by the combination of DOAS and Multi-GAS instruments for volcanoes with similar degassing conditions as Telica or Turrialba. Based on the results of this comparison, we report that by the time our measurements were made, Telica and Turrialba were emitting approximately 100 and 1,000 t day−1 of CO2, respectively.
    Description: This work was supported by the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA), and the DECADE initiative in coordination with OVSICORI-UNA and INETER. The research leading to these results received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007/2013)/ERC grant agreement n1305377 (PI Aiuppa)
    Description: Published
    Description: 2335–2347
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: volcanic degassing ; Multi-GAS ; UV spectroscopy ; FTIR
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: Thrusting at shallow depths often precludes analysis by means of structural indicators effective in other geological contexts (e.g., mylonites, sheath folds, shear bands). In this paper, a combination of techniques (includ- ing structural analysis, magnetic methods, as anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility and paleomagnetism, and paleo- thermometry) is used to define thrusting conditions, defor- mation, and transport directions in the Cameros–Demanda thrust (North Spain). Three outcrops were analyzed along this intraplate, large-scale major structure having 150 km of outcropping length, 30 km of maximum horizontal dis- placement, and 5 km of vertical throw. Results obtained by means of the different techniques are compared with data derived from cross sections and stratigraphic analy- sis. Mixed-layer illite–smectite and vitrinite reflectance indicating deep diagenetic conditions and mature stage of hydrocarbon generation suggests shallow depths during deformation, thus confirming that the protolith for most of the fault rocks is the footwall of the main thrust. Kinematic indicators (foliation, S/C structures, and slickenside stria- tions) indicate altogether a dominant NNW movement of the hanging wall in the western zone and NE in the eastern zone of the thrust, thus implying strain partitioning between different branches of the main thrust. The study of AMS in fault rocks (nearly 400 samples of fault gouge, breccia, and microbreccia) indicates that the strike of magnetic foliation is oblique to the transport direction and that the magnetic lineation parallelizes the projection of the transport direc- tion onto the kmax/kint plane in sites with strong shear defor- mation. Paleomagnetism applied to fault rocks indicates the existence of remagnetizations linked to thrusting, in spite of the shallow depth for deformation, and a strong defor- mation or scattering of the magnetic remanence vectors in the fault zone. The application of the described techniques and consistency of results indicate that the proposed multi- disciplinary approach is useful when dealing with thrusts at shallow crustal levels.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1023–1055
    Description: 1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Intraplate thrusting ; Fault rock ; Cameros–Demanda thrust ; Transport direction ; Magnetic techniques ; Paleothermometry ; Solid Earth
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: The occurrence time of earthquakes can be anticipated or delayed by external phenomena that induce strain energy changes on the faults. ‘Anticipated’ earthquakes are generally called ‘triggered’; however, it can be controversial to label a specific earthquake as such, mostly because of the stochastic nature of earthquake occurrence and of the large uncertainties usually associated to stress modelling. Here we introduce a combined statistical and physical approach to quantify the probability that a given earthquake was triggered by a given stress-inducing phenomenon. As an example, we consider an earthquake that was likely triggered by a natural event: the M = 6.2 13 Jan 1976 Kópasker earthquake on the Grímsey lineament (Tjörnes Fracture Zone, Iceland), which occurred about 3 weeks after a large dike injection in the nearby Krafla fissure swarm. By using Coulomb stress calculations and the rate-and-state earthquake nucleation theory, we calculate the likelihood of the earthquake in a scenario that contains only the tectonic background and excludes the dike and in a scenario that includes the dike but excludes the background. Applying the Bayes’ theorem, we obtain that the probability that the earthquake was indeed triggered by the dike, rather than purely due to the accumulation of tectonic strain, is about 60 to 90 %. This methodology allows us to assign quantitative probabilities to different scenarios and can help in classifying earthquakes as triggered or not triggered by natural or human-induced changes of stress in the crust.
    Description: Published
    Description: 165–187
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2021-01-20
    Description: Zircon from syenitic ejecta of Vesuvius (Campania, Italy) is unusually blue, a property shared with gem zircon from Ratanakiri province (Cambodia), which turns from natural reddish-brown to blue when heated under reducing conditions. Here, the origins of these unusual crystals were traced through geochronology, trace elements, and O-Hf isotopic compositions. The causes of its colour were investigated through optical and electron microscopy, optical absorption spectroscopy, and Raman microspectroscopy. Colour stability upon heating and ultraviolet light (UV) exposure was tested using Ratanakiri zircon as a control. Vesuvius zircon contains vesiculated zones with abundant inclusions ~2.5 μm to 〈100 nm in diameter (mostly U-rich thorianite and pyrochlore-group minerals), while homogeneous zircon domains are high in Th and U (up to 5.9 and 1.8 wt%, respectively). Its blue colouration is stable under UV radiation, as well as heat-treatment under reducing conditions (1000 °C; 〉15 h). Turbid domains rich in large inclusions change to yellow-brown after heating under oxidizing conditions, while transparent domains remain pale blue or colourless. Optical absorption spectra display sharp absorption lines attributed to U4+, and slightly elevated absorption towards shorter wavelengths. The ~1007 cm−1 ν3(SiO4) Raman band is broadened due to lattice distortion by non-stoichiometric elements in high-Th/-U zircon, whereas narrow bands in inclusion-rich domains indicate a decrease in lattice strain due to inclusion precipitation. Blue colouration in Vesuvius zircon is explained by the effect of light scattering (Rayleigh and/or Mie scattering) on highly refractive actinide-rich inclusions ranging in size from 〈1/10 to few multiples of the wavelengths of visible light. Inclusions likely formed during fluid-mediated coupled dissolution-reprecipitation that locally transformed lattice-strained actinide-rich zircon within several hundreds of years prior to eruption.
    Description: Published
    Description: 21–36
    Description: 1V. Storia eruttiva
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2021-04-20
    Description: The complexity of coseismic slip distributions influences the tsunami hazard posed by local and, to a certain extent, distant tsunami sources. Large slip concentrated in shallow patches was observed in recent tsunamigenic earthquakes, possibly due to dynamic amplification near the free surface, variable frictional conditions or other factors. We propose a method for incorporating enhanced shallow slip for subduction earthquakes while preventing systematic slip excess at shallow depths over one or more seismic cycles. The method uses the classic k−2 stochastic slip distributions, augmented by shallow slip amplification. It is necessary for deep events with lower slip to occur more often than shallow ones with amplified slip to balance the long-term cumulative slip. We evaluate the impact of this approach on tsunami hazard in the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea adopting a realistic 3D geometry for three subduction zones, by using it to model ~ 150,000 earthquakes with 𝑀𝑤 from 6.0 to 9.0. We combine earthquake rates, depth-dependent slip distributions, tsunami modeling, and epistemic uncertainty through an ensemble modeling technique. We found that the mean hazard curves obtained with our method show enhanced probabilities for larger inundation heights as compared to the curves derived from depth-independent slip distributions. Our approach is completely general and can be applied to any subduction zone in the world.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1497–1520
    Description: 3T. Sorgente sismica
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: This paper is a final review of the Simplified Ionospheric Regional Model (SIRM) devel- oped as a prototype in the early 1990s and improved in the following years. By means of an algorithm based on the Fourier synthesis, the SIRM model in its prototype version pro- vides predicted monthly median values of the main ionospheric characteristics such as: the ordinary wave critical frequencies (foE, foF1, and foF2) of the E, F1, and F2 ionospheric layers; the lowest virtual height (h’F) of the ordinary trace of the F region; the obliquity factor for a distance of 3000 km (M(3000)F2). Instead, the improved version focuses only on foF2 and M(3000)F2. The SIRM model has been largely employed in the framework of different international research projects as the climatological reference to output foF2 and M(3000)F2 monthly median predictions, but in its SIRMUP version is used also as a nowcasting model and as an intermediate step of complex procedures for a near real- time three-dimensional representation of the ionospheric electron density. In this regard, some results provided by both SIRM and SIRMUP for telecommunication applications are shown. Moreover, the mathematical treatment concerning both the phase correction of the Fourier synthesis and the fundamental steps carried out to define the SIRM algorithm in its final version, never published so far, will be described in detail in dedicated Appendices. Finally, for the first time the SIRM code is now downloadable for the benefit of users.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1143-1178
    Description: 2A. Fisica dell'alta atmosfera
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: SIRM ; SIRMUP ; foF2 ; M(3000)F2 ; Regional modelling ; 01.02. Ionosphere
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2020-09-07
    Description: This study presents and discusses horizontal and vertical geodetic velocities for a low strain rate region of the south Alpine thrust front in northeastern Italy obtained by integrating GPS, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and leveling data. The area is characterized by the presence of subparallel, south-verging thrusts whose seismogenic potential is still poorly known. Horizontal GPS velocities show that this sector of the eastern Southern Alps is undergoing ∼1 mm a−1 of NW–SE shortening associated with the Adria–Eurasia plate convergence, but the horizontal GPS velocity gradient across the mountain front provides limited constraints on the geometry and slip rate of the several subparallel thrusts. In terms of vertical velocities, the three geodetic methods provide consistent results showing a positive velocity gradient, of ∼ 1.5 mm a−1, across the mountain front, which can hardly be explained solely by isostatic processes. We developed an interseismic dislocation model whose geometry is constrained by available subsurface geological reconstructions and instrumental seismicity. While a fraction of the measured uplift can be attributed to glacial and erosional isostatic processes, our results suggest that interseismic strain accumulation at the Montello and the Bassano–Valdobbiadene thrusts it significantly contributing to the measured uplift. The seismogenic potential of the Montello thrust turns out to be smaller than that of the Bassano–Valdobbiadene fault, whose estimated parameters (locking depth equals 9.1 km and slip rate equals 2.1 mm a−1) indicate a structure capable of potentially generating a Mw〉6.5 earthquake. These results demonstrate the importance of precise vertical ground velocity data for modeling interseismic strain accumulation in slowly deforming regions where seismological and geomorphological evidence of active tectonics is often scarce or not conclusive.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1681–1698
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Southern Alps ; Vertical Velocities ; GPS and InSAR integration ; Interseismic Deformation ; Dislocation Model ; Seismic Potential ; 04.03. Geodesy ; 04.07. Tectonophysics
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2020-10-21
    Description: Complex systems (e.g., volcanoes, debris flows, climate) commonly have many models advocated by different modelers and incorporating different modeling assumptions. Limited and sparse data on the modeled phenomena does not permit a clean discrimination among models for fitness of purpose, and, heuristic choices are usually made, especially for critical predictions of behavior that has not been experienced. We advocate here for characterizing models and the modeling assumptions they represent using a statistical approach over the full range of applicability of the models. Such a characterization may then be used to decide the appropriateness of a model for use, and, perhaps as needed weighted compositions of models for better predictive power. We use the example of dense granular representations of natural mass flows in volcanic debris avalanches, to illustrate our approach.
    Description: Published
    Description: 724-736
    Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2020-11-12
    Description: Slope dynamics in volcanic environments comprise a wide spectrum of phenomena, from large lateral collapse to shallow debris remobilization, which may represent a major threat for human communities and infrastructures. Many volcanos built up from the ocean floor and large portions of the volcano edifice are submerged. In these settings, only the edifice’s summit can be investigated by terrestrial remote sensing and in-situ approaches. Growth and destruction, including tectonics and gravitational phenomena, affect entire volcano flanks and are not limited to the physical boundary of the sea level but could comprise their subaqueous parts.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2615–2618
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: volcanoes ; flanks ; volcano-tectonics ; structure ; collapse ; stability ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.08. Risk
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2020-11-16
    Description: The prehistoric (〈7 ka) Zaro eruption at Ischia island (Southern Italy) produced a lava complex overlaying a pyroclastic deposit. Although being of low energy, the Zaro eruption might have caused casualties among the neolithic population that inhabited that area of Ischia, and damages to their settlements. A similar eruption at Ischia with its present-day population would turn into a disaster. Therefore, understanding the magmatic processes that triggered the Zaro eruption would be important for volcanic hazard assessment and risk mitigation, so as to improve a knowledge that can be applied to other active volcanic areas worldwide. The main Zaro lava body is trachyte and hosts abundant mafc and felsic enclaves. Here all juvenile facies have been fully characterized from petrographic, geochemical and isotopic viewpoints. The whole dataset (major and trace element contents; Sr–Nd isotopic composition) leads to rule out a genetic link by fractional crystallization among the variable facies. Thus, we suggest that the Zaro mafc enclaves could represent a deep-origin mafc magma that mingled/mixed with the main trachytic one residing in the Ischia shallow magmatic system. The intrusion of such a mafc magma into a shallow reservoir flled by partly crystallized, evolved magma could have destabilized the magmatic system presumably acting as a rapid eruption trigger. The resulting processes of convection, mixing and rejuvenation have possibly played an important role in pre- and syn-eruptive phases also in several eruptions of diferent sizes in the Neapolitan area and elsewhere in the world.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2829–2849
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Ischia island ; Zaro volcanic complex ; Mineral chemistry ; Isotope geochemistry ; Mafic enclaves
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2020-12-21
    Description: In this work, we propose a statistical approach to evaluate the coverage of a network based on the spatial distribution of its nodes and the target information, including all those data related to the final objectives of the network itself. This statistical approach encompasses descriptive spatial statistics in combination with point pattern techniques. As case studies, we evaluate the spatial arrangements of the stations within the Italian National Seismic Network and the Italian Strong Motion Network. Seismic networks are essential tools for observing earthquakes and assessing seismic hazards, while strong motion (accelerometric) networks allow us to describe seismic shaking and to measure the expected effects on buildings and infrastructures. The capability of both networks is a function of an adequate number of optimally distributed stations. We compare the seismic network with the spatial distributions of historical and instrument seismicity and with the distribution of well-known seismogenic sources, and we compare the strong motion station distribution with seismic hazard maps and the population distribution. This simple and reliable methodological approach is able to provide quantitative information on the coverage of any type of network and is able to identify critical areas that require optimization and therefore address areas of future development.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1045–1061
    Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio e sorveglianza
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: The densely populated Po Plain, a very deep sedi- mentary basin in northern Italy, is prone to heavy shaking during earthquakes. Seismic hazard assessment must account for local variation in wave amplification. Standard ground motion prediction equations may fail to picture the complexity of strong lateral gradients in seismic response, due to sharp structural heterogeneity. For this reason, there is an increasing demand for full waveform predictions for engineering applications. Here, we present an implementation of a hybrid broadband simulation based on the method of Mai et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100(6):3338–3339, 2010), to obtain complete broadband seismograms of 0.1–10 Hz. With this method, low frequency (〈1 Hz) and high frequency (1–10 Hz) seismograms are simulated separately using a deter- ministic and a stochastic method, respectively. We apply the method to four events recorded within the Po basin, with magnitude ranging from Mw = 4.4 to Mw = 5.6. The low frequency (LF) simulation is performed using SPECFEM3D on a few test sub- surface velocity models. The three-dimensional velocity model MAMBo (Molinari et al. in Bull Seismol Soc Am 105(2A):753–764, 2015)—consisting of a detailed structural description of the basin, based on extensive active-source data, embedded within a regional 3D crustal model—provided the best results for broadband simulations that most closely corresponded with the observations. It performed better than an ambient noise tomography model with more accurate S-wave velocities but less well defined layer topographies, emphasizing the importance of first order velocity discontinuities. The high frequency (HF) seis- mograms are simulated using the multiple scattering approach of Zeng et al. (J Geophys Res Solid Earth 96(B1):607–619, 1991). The scattering coefficients are obtained by performing a non linear inversion for each station to find best fitting synthetic envelopes. HF energy is then combined at 1 Hz to match the amplitude and phase spectra of the LF signal. We are able to simulate full waveforms throughout the Po Plain, of which shaking duration matches observed data for stations located in the basin. Shaking amplitudes are generally overestimated in the low frequency simulation by the MAMBo velocity model. Updating the MAMBo velocity model with more accurate S-wave velocity information of the ambient noise tomography model should improve the fit in future simulations.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2181–2198
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Ground motion ; hybrid method ; sedimentary basin ; Seismic shaking scenario ; 04. Solid Earth
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2020-08-06
    Description: With globally growing aquaculture activities, the co-introduction of parasites alongside large-scale movements of commercial species poses an increasing risk for marine ecosystems. Here, we present the first record of the shell-boring polychaete Polydora websteri Hartman in Loosanoff and Engle, 1943 in invasive Pacific oysters Crassostrea (Magallana) gigas (Thunberg, 1793) in the European Atlantic Ocean. In October 2014, mud blisters in the shells of wild Pacific oysters and specimens of a spionid polychaete were observed in close proximity to a commercial oyster farm at the island of Sylt (Germany) in the European Wadden Sea. Subsequent investigations indicated that these blisters only occurred near the farm and that no other mollusc species were affected. Morphological and molecular analysis identified the polychaete as Polydora websteri, a species that nowadays widely occurs around the globe, but likely is native to the Asian Pacific. Later sampling activities detected P. websteri also at other locations around Sylt as well as in the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea at the island of Texel. The number of polychaetes in the oysters was, however, relatively low and mostly below 10 individuals per oyster. Together, this evidence suggests that P. websteri is currently extending its range. As the introduction of P. websteri may have severe ecological and economic implications, this study aims to alert others to look for P. websteri at Western European coasts within farmed or wild Pacific oysters to further document its spread.
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2020-08-10
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2021-02-16
    Description: A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3°C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4°C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2020-09-28
    Description: Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ∼2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic compositions of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 759 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including glacier and ground ice (210); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (143); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and nonexperts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate-model-simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model–data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 (Konecky and McKay, 2020) and is also accessible via the NOAA/WDS Paleo Data landing page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593 (last access: 30 July 2020).
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2020-11-16
    Description: The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) extends around 600 km upstream from the coast to its onset near the ice divide in interior Greenland. Several maps of surface velocity and topography of interior Greenland exist, but their accuracy is not well constrained by in situ observations. Here we present the results from a GPS mapping of surface velocity in an area located approximately 150 km from the ice divide near the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EastGRIP) deep-drilling site. A GPS strain net consisting of 63 poles was established and observed over the years 2015–2019. The strain net covers an area of 35 km by 40 km, including both shear margins. The ice flows with a uniform surface speed of approximately 55 m a^−1 within a central flow band with longitudinal and transverse strain rates on the order of 10−4 a^−1 and increasing by an order of magnitude in the shear margins. We compare the GPS results to the Arctic Digital Elevation Model and a list of satellite-derived surface velocity products in order to evaluate these products. For each velocity product, we determine the bias in and precision of the velocity compared to the GPS observations, as well as the smoothing of the velocity products needed to obtain optimal precision. The best products have a bias and a precision of ∼0.5 m a^−1. We combine the GPS results with satellite-derived products and show that organized patterns in flow and topography emerge in NEGIS when the surface velocity exceeds approximately 55 m a−1 and are related to bedrock topography.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 31
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Climate of the Past, Copernicus, 16(6), pp. 2275-2323, ISSN: 1814-9332
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: We present the Alfred Wegener Institute's contribution to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) wherein we employ the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS) that include a dynamic vegetation scheme. This work builds on our contribution to Phase 1 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP1) wherein we employed the same model without dynamic vegetation. Our input to the PlioMIP2 special issue of Climate of the Past is twofold. In an accompanying paper we compare results derived with COSMOS in the framework of PlioMIP2 and PlioMIP1. With this paper we present details of our contribution with COSMOS to PlioMIP2. We provide a description of the model and of methods employed to transfer reconstructed mid-Pliocene geography, as provided by the Pliocene Reconstruction and Synoptic Mapping Initiative Phase 4 (PRISM4), to model boundary conditions. We describe the spin-up procedure for creating the COSMOS PlioMIP2 simulation ensemble and present large-scale climate patterns of the COSMOS PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene core simulation. Furthermore, we quantify the contribution of individual components of PRISM4 boundary conditions to characteristics of simulated mid-Pliocene climate and discuss implications for anthropogenic warming. When exposed to PRISM4 boundary conditions, COSMOS provides insight into a mid-Pliocene climate that is characterised by increased rainfall (+0.17 mm d−1) and elevated surface temperature (+3.37 ∘C) in comparison to the pre-industrial (PI). About two-thirds of the mid-Pliocene core temperature anomaly can be directly attributed to carbon dioxide that is elevated with respect to PI. The contribution of topography and ice sheets to mid-Pliocene warmth is much smaller in contrast – about one-quarter and one-eighth, respectively, and nonlinearities are negligible. The simulated mid-Pliocene climate comprises pronounced polar amplification, a reduced meridional temperature gradient, a northwards-shifted tropical rain belt, an Arctic Ocean that is nearly free of sea ice during boreal summer, and muted seasonality at Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Simulated mid-Pliocene precipitation patterns are defined by both carbon dioxide and PRISM4 paleogeography. Our COSMOS simulations confirm long-standing characteristics of the mid-Pliocene Earth system, among these increased meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Ocean, an extended and intensified equatorial warm pool, and pronounced poleward expansion of vegetation cover. By means of a comparison of our results to a reconstruction of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the mid-Pliocene we find that COSMOS reproduces reconstructed SST best if exposed to a carbon dioxide concentration of 400 ppmv. In the Atlantic to Arctic Ocean the simulated mid-Pliocene core climate state is too cold in comparison to the SST reconstruction. The discord can be mitigated to some extent by increasing carbon dioxide that causes increased mismatch between the model and reconstruction in other regions.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2021-01-04
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  • 33
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    Springer
    In:  EPIC3Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Springer, 37(5), pp. 455-476, ISSN: 0256-1530
    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Description: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are an important component of the hydrological cycle linking moisture sources in lowerlatitudes to the Antarctic surface mass balance. We investigate AR signatures in the atmospheric vertical profiles at theDronning Maud Land coast, East Antarctica, using regular and extra radiosonde measurements conducted during the Yearof Polar Prediction Special Observing Period November 2018 to February 2019. Prominent AR events affecting thelocations of Neumayer and Syowa cause a strong increase in specific humidity extending through the mid-troposphere anda strong low-level jet (LLJ). At Neumayer, the peak in the moisture inversion (up to 4 g kg−1) is observed between 800 and900 hPa, while the LLJ (up to 32 m s−1) is concentrated below 900 hPa. At Syowa the increase in humidity is lesspronounced and peaks near the surface, while there is a substantial increase in wind speed (up to 40 m s−1) between 825 and925 hPa. Moisture transport (MT) within the vertical profile during the ARs attains a maximum of 100 g kg−1 m s−1 at bothlocations, and is captured by both ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis data at Neumayer, but is strongly underestimated atSyowa. Composites of the enhanced MT events during 2009−19 show that these events represent an extreme state of thelower-tropospheric profile compared to its median values with respect to temperature, humidity, wind speed and,consequently, MT. High temporal- and vertical-resolution radiosonde observations are important for understanding thecontribution of these rare events to the total MT towards Antarctica and improving their representation in models.
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  • 34
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3Climate of the Past, Copernicus, 16(4), pp. 1643-1665, ISSN: 1814-9332
    Publication Date: 2021-02-16
    Description: We compare results obtained from modeling the mid-Pliocene warm period using the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, version: COSMOS-landveg r2413, 2009) with the two different modeling methodologies and sets of boundary conditions prescribed for the two phases of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), tagged PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. Here, we bridge the gap between our contributions to PlioMIP1 (Stepanek and Lohmann, 2012) and PlioMIP2 (Stepanek et al., 2020). We highlight some of the effects that differences in the chosen mid-Pliocene model setup (PlioMIP2 vs. PlioMIP1) have on the climate state as derived with COSMOS, as this information will be valuable in the framework of the model–model and model–data comparison within PlioMIP2. We evaluate the model sensitivity to improved mid-Pliocene boundary conditions using PlioMIP's core mid-Pliocene experiments for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 and present further simulations in which we test model sensitivity to variations in paleogeography, orbit, and the concentration of CO2. Firstly, we highlight major changes in boundary conditions from PlioMIP1 to PlioMIP2 and also the challenges recorded from the initial effort. The results derived from our simulations show that COSMOS simulates a mid-Pliocene climate state that is 0.29°C colder in PlioMIP2 if compared to PlioMIP1 (17.82°C in PlioMIP1, 17.53°C in PlioMIP2; values based on simulated surface skin temperature). On the one hand, high-latitude warming, which is supported by proxy evidence of the mid-Pliocene, is underestimated in simulations of both PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. On the other hand, spatial variations in surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST), and the distribution of sea ice suggest improvement of simulated SAT and SST in PlioMIP2 if employing the updated paleogeography. Our PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene simulation produces warmer SSTs in the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean than those derived from the respective PlioMIP1 climate state. The difference in prescribed CO2 accounts for 0.5°C of temperature difference in the Arctic, leading to an ice-free summer in the PlioMIP1 simulation, and a quasi ice-free summer in PlioMIP2. Beyond the official set of PlioMIP2 simulations, we present further simulations and analyses that sample the phase space of potential alternative orbital forcings that have acted during the Pliocene and may have impacted geological records. Employing orbital forcing, which differs from that proposed for PlioMIP2 (i.e., corresponding to pre-industrial conditions) but falls into the mid-Pliocene time period targeted in PlioMIP, leads to pronounced annual and seasonal temperature variations. Our result identifies the changes in mid-Pliocene paleogeography from PRISM3 to PRISM4 as the major driver of the mid-Pliocene warmth within PlioMIP and not the minor differences in forcings.
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  • 35
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    Springer
    In:  EPIC3Cham, Springer, 378 p., ISBN: 978-3-030-20389-4
    Publication Date: 2020-06-12
    Description: This open access book summarizes peer-reviewed articles and the abstracts of oral and poster presentations given during the YOUMARES 9 conference which took place in Oldenburg, Germany, in September 2018. The aims of this book are to summarize state-of-the-art knowledge in marine sciences and to inspire scientists of all career stages in the development of further research. These conferences are organized by and for young marine researchers. Qualified early-career researchers, who moderated topical sessions during the conference, contributed literature reviews on specific topics within their research field.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2020-10-15
    Description: Surface water characteristics of the Beaufort Sea have global climate implications during the last deglaciation and the Holocene, as (1) sea ice is a critical component of the climate system and (2) Laurentide Ice Sheet meltwater discharges via the Mackenzie River to the Arctic Ocean and further, to its outflow near the deep-water source area of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here we present high-resolution biomarker records from the southern Beaufort Sea. Multi-proxy biomarker reconstruction suggests that the southern Beaufort Sea was nearly ice-free during the deglacial to Holocene transition, and a seasonal sea-ice cover developed during the mid-late Holocene. Superimposed on the long-term change, two events of high sediment flux were documented at ca. 13 and 11 kyr BP, respectively. The first event can be attributed to the Younger Dryas flood and the second event is likely related to a second flood and/or coastal erosion.
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90 °N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 °C compared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 °C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from −3.0 to −10.4×106 km2, with a MMM anomaly of −5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulate summer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimation varies strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulations and an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength compared to pre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
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  • 38
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    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3The Cryosphere, Copernicus, 14(11), pp. 3843-3873, ISSN: 1994-0424
    Publication Date: 2020-11-11
    Description: Antarctic geothermal heat flow (GHF) affects the temperature of the ice sheet, determining its ability to slide and internally deform, as well as the behaviour of the continental crust. However, GHF remains poorly constrained, with few and sparse local, borehole-derived estimates and large discrepancies in the magnitude and distribution of existing continent-scale estimates from geophysical models. We review the methods to estimate GHF, discussing the strengths and limitations of each approach; compile borehole and probe-derived estimates from measured temperature profiles; and recommend the following future directions. (1) Obtain more borehole-derived estimates from the subglacial bedrock and englacial temperature profiles. (2) Estimate GHF from inverse glaciological modelling, constrained by evidence for basal melting and englacial temperatures (e.g. using microwave emissivity). (3) Revise geophysically derived GHF estimates using a combination of Curie depth, seismic, and thermal isostasy models. (4) Integrate in these geophysical approaches a more accurate model of the structure and distribution of heat production elements within the crust and considering heterogeneities in the underlying mantle. (5) Continue international interdisciplinary communication and data access.
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2020-12-07
    Description: Northwestern Alaska has been highly affected by changing climatic patterns with new temperature and precipitation maxima over the recent years. In particular, the Baldwin and northern Seward peninsulas are characterized by an abundance of thermokarst lakes that are highly dynamic and prone to lake drainage like many other regions at the southern margins of continuous permafrost. We used Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Planet CubeSat optical remote sensing data to analyze recently observed widespread lake drainage. We then used synoptic weather data, climate model outputs and lake ice growth simulations to analyze potential drivers and future pathways of lake drainage in this region. Following the warmest and wettest winter on record in 2017/2018, 192 lakes were identified as having completely or partially drained by early summer 2018, which exceeded the average drainage rate by a factor of ∼ 10 and doubled the rates of the previous extreme lake drainage years of 2005 and 2006. The combination of abundant rain- and snowfall and extremely warm mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), close to 0 ∘C, may have led to the destabilization of permafrost around the lake margins. Rapid snow melt and high amounts of excess meltwater further promoted rapid lateral breaching at lake shores and consequently sudden drainage of some of the largest lakes of the study region that have likely persisted for millennia. We hypothesize that permafrost destabilization and lake drainage will accelerate and become the dominant drivers of landscape change in this region. Recent MAATs are already within the range of the predictions by the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (UAF SNAP) ensemble climate predictions in scenario RCP6.0 for 2100. With MAAT in 2019 just below 0 ∘C at the nearby Kotzebue, Alaska, climate station, permafrost aggradation in drained lake basins will become less likely after drainage, strongly decreasing the potential for freeze-locking carbon sequestered in lake sediments, signifying a prominent regime shift in ice-rich permafrost lowland regions.
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2020-07-08
    Description: The ESA Earth Explorer CryoSat-2 was launched on 8 April 2010 to monitor the precise changes in the thickness of terrestrial ice sheets and marine floating ice. To do that, CryoSat orbits the planet at an altitude of around 720 km with a retrograde orbit inclination of 92∘ and a quasi repeat cycle of 369 d (30 d subcycle). To reach the mission goals, the CryoSat products have to meet the highest quality standards to date, achieved through continual improvements of the operational processing chains. The new CryoSat Ice Baseline-D, in operation since 27 May 2019, represents a major processor upgrade with respect to the previous Ice Baseline-C. Over land ice the new Baseline-D provides better results with respect to the previous baseline when comparing the data to a reference elevation model over the Austfonna ice cap region, improving the ascending and descending crossover statistics from 1.9 to 0.1 m. The improved processing of the star tracker measurements implemented in Baseline-D has led to a reduction in the standard deviation of the point-to-point comparison with the previous star tracker processing method implemented in Baseline-C from 3.8 to 3.7 m. Over sea ice, Baseline-D improves the quality of the retrieved heights inside and at the boundaries of the synthetic aperture radar interferometric (SARIn or SIN) acquisition mask, removing the negative freeboard pattern which is beneficial not only for freeboard retrieval but also for any application that exploits the phase information from SARIn Level 1B (L1B) products. In addition, scatter comparisons with the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project (BGEP; https://www.whoi.edu/beaufortgyre, last access: October 2019) and Operation IceBridge (OIB; Kurtz et al., 2013) in situ measurements confirm the improvements in the Baseline-D freeboard product quality. Relative to OIB, the Baseline-D freeboard mean bias is reduced by about 8 cm, which roughly corresponds to a 60 % decrease with respect to Baseline-C. The BGEP data indicate a similar tendency with a mean draft bias lowered from 0.85 to −0.14 m. For the two in situ datasets, the root mean square deviation (RMSD) is also well reduced from 14 to 11 cm for OIB and by a factor of 2 for the BGEP. Observations over inland waters show a slight increase in the percentage of good observations in Baseline-D, generally around 5 %–10 % for most lakes. This paper provides an overview of the new Level 1 and Level 2 (L2) CryoSat Ice Baseline-D evolutions and related data quality assessment, based on results obtained from analyzing the 6-month Baseline-D test dataset released to CryoSat expert users prior to the final transfer to operations.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2020-08-10
    Description: The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a synthesis effort providing regular compilations of surface to bottom ocean biogeochemical data, with an emphasis on seawater inorganic carbon chemistry and related variables determined through chemical analysis of water samples. GLODAPv2.2020 is an update of the previous version, GLODAPv2.2019. The major changes are: data from 106 more cruises added, extension of time coverage until 2019, and the inclusion of available discrete fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) values in the merged product files. GLODAPv2.2020 includes measurements from more than 1.2 million water samples from the global oceans collected on 946 cruises. The data for the 12 GLODAP core variables (salinity, oxygen, nitrate, silicate, phosphate, dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, pH, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and CCl4) have undergone extensive quality control, especially systematic evaluation of bias. The data are available in two formats: (i) as submitted by the data originator but updated to WOCE exchange format and (ii) as a merged data product with adjustments applied to minimize bias. These adjustments were derived by comparing the data from the 106 new cruises with the data from the 840 quality-controlled cruises of the GLODAPv2.2019 data product. They correct for errors related to measurement, calibration, and data handling practices, while taking into account any known or likely time trends or variations in the variables evaluated. The compiled and adjusted data product is believed to be consistent to better than 0.005 in salinity, 1 % in oxygen, 2 % in nitrate, 2 % in silicate, 2 % in phosphate, 4 μmol kg−1 in dissolved inorganic carbon, 4 μmol kg−1 in total alkalinity, 0.01–0.02, depending on region, in pH, and 5 % in the halogenated transient tracers. The other variables included in the compilation, such as isotopic tracers and discrete fCO2 were not subjected to bias comparison or adjustments. The original data, their documentation and doi codes are available at the Ocean Carbon Data System of NOAA NCEI (https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/GLODAPv2_2020/, last access: 22 June 2020). This site also provides access to the merged data product, which is provided as a single global file and as four regional ones – the Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific oceans – under https://doi.org/10.25921/2c8h-sa89 (Olsen et al., 2020). The bias corrected product files also include significant ancillary and approximated data. These were obtained by interpolation of, or calculation from, measured data. This living data update documents the GLODAPv2.2020 methods and provides a broad overview of the secondary quality control procedures and results.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 42
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    Springer
    In:  EPIC3Physics and Chemistry of the Arctic Atmosphere, Physics and Chemistry of the Arctic Atmosphere, Springer, pp. 1-51, ISBN: 978-3-030-33566-3
    Publication Date: 2020-02-05
    Description: This book presents current knowledge on chemistry and physics of Arctic atmosphere. Special attention is given to studies of the Arctic haze phenomenon, Arctic tropospheric clouds, Arctic fog, polar stratospheric and mesospheric clouds, atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer as related to the polar environment. The atmosphere-cryosphere feedbacks and atmospheric remote sensing techniques are presented in detail. The problems of climate change in the Arctic are also addressed.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2020-05-11
    Description: Satellite altimetry has been widely used to determine surface elevation changes in polar ice sheets. The original height measurements are irregularly distributed in space and time. Gridded surface elevation changes are commonly derived by repeat altimetry analysis (RAA) and subsequent spatial interpolation of height change estimates. This article assesses how methodological choices related to those two steps affect the accuracy of surface elevation changes, and how well this accuracy is represented by formal uncertainties. In a simulation environment resembling CryoSat-2 measurements acquired over a region in northeast Greenland between December 2010 and January 2014, different local topography modeling approaches and different cell sizes for RAA, and four interpolation approaches are tested. Among the simulated cases, the choice of either favorable or unfavorable RAA affects the accuracy of results by about a factor of 6, and the different accuracy levels are propagated into the results of interpolation. For RAA, correcting local topography by an external digital elevation model (DEM) is best, if a very precise DEM is available, which is not always the case. Yet the best DEM-independent local topography correction (nine-parameter model within a 3,000 m diameter cell) is comparable to the use of a perfect DEM, which exactly represents the ice sheet topography, on the same cell size. Interpolation by heterogeneous measurement-error-filtered kriging is significantly more accurate (on the order of 50% error reduction) than interpolation methods, which do not account for heterogeneous errors.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2020-02-17
    Description: Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a major source of uncertainty for ice and ocean mass balance estimates derived from satellite gravimetry. In Antarctica the gravimetric effect of cryospheric mass change and GIA are of the same order of magnitude. Inverse estimates from geodetic observations hold some promise for mass signal separation. Here, we investigate the combination of satellite gravimetry and altimetry and demonstrate that the choice of input data sets and processing methods will influence the resultant GIA inverse estimate. This includes the combination that spans the full GRACE record (April 2002–August 2016). Additionally, we show the variations that arise from combining the actual time series of the differing data sets. Using the inferred trends, we assess the spread of GIA solutions owing to (1) the choice of different degree-1 and C20 products, (2) viable candidate surface-elevation-change products derived from different altimetry missions corresponding to different time intervals, and (3) the uncertainties associated with firn process models. Decomposing the total-mass signal into the ice mass and the GIA components is strongly dependent on properly correcting for an apparent bias in regions of small signal. Here our ab initio solutions force the mean GIA and GRACE trend over the low precipitation zone of East Antarctica to be zero. Without applying this bias correction, the overall spread of total-mass change and GIA-related mass change using differing degree-1 and C20 products is 68 and 72 Gt a−1, respectively, for the same time period (March 2003–October 2009). The bias correction method collapses this spread to 6 and 5 Gt a−1, respectively. We characterize the firn process model uncertainty empirically by analysing differences between two alternative surface mass balance products. The differences propagate to a 10 Gt a−1 spread in debiased GIA-related mass change estimates. The choice of the altimetry product poses the largest uncertainty on debiased mass change estimates. The spread of debiased GIA-related mass change amounts to 15 Gt a−1 for the period from March 2003 to October 2009. We found a spread of 49 Gt a−1 comparing results for the periods April 2002–August 2016 and July 2010–August 2016. Our findings point out limitations associated with data quality, data processing, and correction for apparent biases.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 45
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    Springer
    In:  EPIC3Antarctic Seaweeds Diversity, Adaptation and Ecosystem Services, Antarctic Seaweeds, Cham, Switzerland, Springer, 397 p., pp. 241-264, ISBN: 978-3-030-39447-9
    Publication Date: 2020-06-10
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: The Beenchime-Salaatinsky Crater (BSC) is located west of the Olenyok River in Northern Yakutia, ~ 260 km south-west of Tiksi and the Lena Delta. The age and origin (volcanic versus meteoritic) of this crater is poorly understood. The key scientific interest in re-visiting the BSC is the reappraisal of the Quaternary sedimentation dynamics for a better understanding of the sediment history and thickness in the basin. This aides for an assessment, if the site is prospective for a deeper drilling of a Quaternary (or Cenozoic) sediment archive. Soil pits and auger cores from slopes and lowland terrain in the basin were sampled and studied to infer sediment ages and transport dynamics. This also included a thermokarst lake placed in the centre of the basin. Studied properties include grain-size distribution, organic carbon and nitrogen contents (TOC and TN), heavy mineral compositions, δ13C of organic carbon, 14C ages from sediment, δ18O and δD from ground ice and waters, and lake bathymetry from GPR profiling, in addition. We conclude that the crater floor in the BSC is underlain by fluvial/alluvial sediments from the MIS 3 period. Thermokarst lake formation took place during the Holocene Thermal Maximum between 7600 and 6100 cal yr BP. The lake has been shrinking hereafter. Fluvial/alluvial sedimentation along the drainage pattern was active again between 5700 to 1500 cal yr BP, and it was flanked by the accumulation of peaty and organic-rich sediments and the formation of ice-wedge polygons.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2021-03-25
    Description: Landfast sea ice (fast ice) attached to Antarctic (near-)coastal elements is a critical component of the local physical and ecological systems. Through its direct coupling with the atmosphere and ocean, fast-ice properties are also a potential indicator of processes related to a changing climate. However, in situ fast-ice observations in Antarctica are extremely sparse because of logistical challenges and harsh environmental conditions. Since 2010, a monitoring program observing the seasonal evolution of fast ice in Atka Bay has been conducted as part of the Antarctic Fast Ice Network (AFIN). The bay is located on the northeastern edge of Ekström Ice Shelf in the eastern Weddell Sea, close to the German wintering station Neumayer III. A number of sampling sites have been regularly revisited each year between annual ice formation and breakup to obtain a continuous record of sea-ice and sub-ice platelet-layer thickness, as well as snow depth and freeboard across the bay. Here, we present the time series of these measurements over the last 9 years. Combining them with observations from the nearby Neumayer III meteorological observatory as well as auxiliary satellite images enables us to relate the seasonal and interannual fast-ice cycle to the factors that influence their evolution. On average, the annual consolidated fast-ice thickness at the end of the growth season is about 2 m, with a loose platelet layer of 4 m thickness beneath and 0.70 m thick snow on top. Results highlight the predominately seasonal character of the fast-ice regime in Atka Bay without a significant interannual trend in any of the observed variables over the 9-year observation period. Also, no changes are evident when comparing with sporadic measurements in the 1980s and 1990s. It is shown that strong easterly winds in the area govern the year-round snow distribution and also trigger the breakup of fast ice in the bay during summer months. Due to the substantial snow accumulation on the fast ice, a characteristic feature is frequent negative freeboard, associated flooding of the snow–ice interface, and a likely subsequent snow ice formation. The buoyant platelet layer beneath negates the snow weight to some extent, but snow thermodynamics is identified as the main driver of the energy and mass budgets for the fast-ice cover in Atka Bay. The new knowledge of the seasonal and interannual variability of fast-ice properties from the present study helps to improve our understanding of interactions between atmosphere, fast ice, ocean, and ice shelves in one of the key regions of Antarctica and calls for intensified multidisciplinary studies in this region.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 °C over land and 2.8 °C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60°N and 60°S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8°C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: In the last decades, changing climate conditions have had a severe impact on sea ice at the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), an area rapidly transforming under global warming. To study the development of spring sea ice and environmental conditions in the pre-satellite era we investigated three short marine sediment cores for their biomarker inventory with a particular focus on the sea ice proxy IPSO25 and micropaleontological proxies. The core sites are located in the Bransfield Strait in shelf to deep basin areas characterized by a complex oceanographic frontal system, coastal influence and sensitivity to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. We analyzed geochemical bulk parameters, biomarkers (highly branched isoprenoids, glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, sterols), and diatom abundances and diversity over the past 240 years and compared them to observational data, sedimentary and ice core climate archives, and results from numerical models. Based on biomarker results we identified four different environmental units characterized by (A) low sea ice cover and high ocean temperatures, (B) moderate sea ice cover with decreasing ocean temperatures, (C) high but variable sea ice cover during intervals of lower ocean temperatures, and (D) extended sea ice cover coincident with a rapid ocean warming. While IPSO25 concentrations correspond quite well to satellite sea ice observations for the past 40 years, we note discrepancies between the biomarker-based sea ice estimates, the long-term model output for the past 240 years, ice core records, and reconstructed atmospheric circulation patterns such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We propose that the sea ice biomarker proxies IPSO25 and PIPSO25 are not linearly related to sea ice cover, and, additionally, each core site reflects specific local environmental conditions. High IPSO25 and PIPSO25 values may not be directly interpreted as referring to high spring sea ice cover because variable sea ice conditions and enhanced nutrient supply may affect the production of both the sea-ice-associated and phytoplankton-derived (open marine, pelagic) biomarker lipids. For future interpretations we recommend carefully considering individual biomarker records to distinguish between cold sea-ice-favoring and warm sea-ice-diminishing environmental conditions.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2020-02-11
    Description: Prediction patterns are generated using different data sets from a database for landslides hazard in northern Italy. A direct supporting pattern of the distribution of 28 complex landslides was previously used to obtain their spatial relationships with five categorical indirect supporting patterns representing the spatial context of the landslides: geology, land use, and permeability in addition to internal relief and slope, the latter two categorized into five classes. The five indirect supporting patterns were selected to minimize the effects of conditional dependence on prediction patterns by a Weight-of-Evidence model. The same set of patterns is reanalysed applying the Empirical Likelihood Ratio model using also uncategorized continuous supporting patterns: aspect, curvature, and digital elevation, in addition to internal relief and slope. The resulting prediction patterns are compared in terms of prediction rates and target-uncertainty patterns.
    Description: Published
    Description: 291-294
    Description: 2TR. Ricostruzione e modellazione della struttura crostale
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2020-02-20
    Description: Tsunamis are low-frequency high-consequences major natural threats, rare events devastating vast coastal regions near and far from their generation areas. They may be caused by coseismic seafloor motions, subaerial and submarine mass movements, volcanic activities (like explosions, pyroclastic flows and caldera collapses), meteorological phenomena and meteorite ocean impacts. The probability of tsunami occurrence and/or impact on a given coast may be treated formally by combining calculations based on empirical observations and on models; this probability can be updated in light of new/independent information. This is the general concept of the Bayesian method applied to tsunami probabilistic hazard analysis, which also provides a direct quantification of forecast uncertainties. This entry presents a critical overview of Bayesian procedures with a primary focus on their appropriate and relevant applicability to tsunami hazard analyses.
    Description: Published
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book chapter
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2020-06-10
    Description: Use of faults in seismic hazard models allows us to capture the recurrence of large-magnitude events and therefore improve the reliability of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). In the past decades, fault segmentation provided an important framework for quantifying fault-based PSHA. Recent complex coseismic ruptures (e.g., 2010 Mw 7.1 Canterbury, 2012 Mw 8.6 Sumatra, 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura, 2016 Mw 6.5 central Italy) have shown the need to consider different possible combinations of rupture scenarios in PSHA. Here we present two new methodologies that model rates of ruptures along complex fault systems, one based on a floating rupture approach (FRESH) and another one based on assumed rupture scenarios (SUNFISH). They represent alternatives to a recently proposed approach (SHERIFS), and further step to overcome the segmented and un-segmented approaches commonly used in PSHA in Europe. Differences among SHERIFS, SUNFiSH and FRESH are related to the way slip rate, rupture geometries and magnitude–frequency distributions are modelled. To quantify the differences between these three methodologies, we compared PSHA results based on geometries and slip rates of a fault system located in northeastern Italy, assuming a given maximum magnitude and the same seismic moment rate target. Differences up to 20–30% in the peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% in 50 years are observed. Finally, we show that the three methodologies are able to solve for the long-term rate of ruptures with resulting PSHA that reflect the fault system geometry and slip rates, without any assumption on segment boundaries. Using fault-based approaches in PSHA requires collecting as much local geological information as possible. Now that multi-fault rupture approaches are available, simplifying assumptions often made to model complex fault systems (uniform slip rate, segmentation hypothesis) are no longer necessary. On the other hand, local data collection should be strongly encouraged to better characterize the actual fault slip rate variability and the complex 3D geometrie
    Description: Published
    Description: 1855–1877
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2020-03-03
    Description: A critical point in the analysis of ground dis- placement time series, as those recorded by space geodetic techniques, is the development of data-driven methods that allow the different sources of deformation to be discerned and characterized in the space and time domains. Multivariate statistic includes several approaches that can be considered as a part of data-driven methods. A widely used technique is the principal component analysis (PCA), which allows us to reduce the dimensionality of the data space while maintain- ing most of the variance of the dataset explained. However, PCA does not perform well in finding the solution to the so-called blind source separation (BSS) problem, i.e., in recovering and separating the original sources that gener- ate the observed data. This is mainly due to the fact that PCA minimizes the misfit calculated using an L 2 norm (χ 2 ), look- ing for a new Euclidean space where the projected data are uncorrelated. The independent component analysis (ICA) is a popular technique adopted to approach the BSS problem. However, the independence condition is not easy to impose, and it is often necessary to introduce some approximations. To work around this problem, we test the use of a modi- fied variational Bayesian ICA (vbICA) method to recover the multiple sources of ground deformation even in the presence of missing data. The vbICA method models the probability density function (pdf) of each source signal using a mix of Gaussian distributions, allowing for more flexibility in the description of the pdf of the sources with respect to standard ICA, and giving a more reliable estimate of them. Here we present its application to synthetic global positioning system (GPS) position time series, generated by simulating deforma- tion near an active fault, including inter-seismic, co-seismic, and post-seismic signals, plus seasonal signals and noise, and an additional time-dependent volcanic source. We evaluate the ability of the PCA and ICA decomposition techniques in explaining the data and in recovering the original (known) sources. Using the same number of components, we find that the vbICA method fits the data almost as well as a PCA method, since the χ 2 increase is less than 10 % the value cal- culated using a PCA decomposition. Unlike PCA, the vbICA algorithm is found to correctly separate the sources if the correlation of the dataset is low (〈0.67) and the geodetic network is sufficiently dense (ten continuous GPS stations within a box of side equal to two times the locking depth of a fault where an earthquake of Mw 〉 6 occurred). We also provide a cookbook for the use of the vbICA algorithm in analyses of position time series for tectonic and non-tectonic applications.
    Description: Published
    Description: 323–341
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04. Solid Earth ; 04.03. Geodesy
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2020-03-04
    Description: The SabatiniVolcanicDistrict (SVD), active between 0.8 and 0.07 Ma, is a volcanic field in the Roman province (Central Italy) located along the Tyrrhenian margin of the Italian peninsula. In this volcanic region, high-K magmas originated from a metasomatised phlogopite-bearing peridotite mantle recording subduction-related fluids and/or melting processes. Here, we investigate magma evolution during the six main eruptive phases of the SVD by means of chemical and isotopic (Sr and Nd) analyses. Specifically, we analyzed clinopyroxene crystals from juvenile pumice and scoria clasts and lavas, from 40 major SVD eruptive units chronologically well constrained by 40Ar/39Ar dating. 87Sr/86Sr and 144Nd/143Nd ratios in SVDclinopyroxene range 0.7095–0.7115 and 0.51210- 0.51214, respectively. The mean Sr and Nd isotope compositions of each eruptive phases show a gradual, long-term decrease over the entire SVD eruptive history. However, when considering the distinct temporal windows of the individual eruptive phases, a significant variability of the Sr-Nd isotope ratios emerges, thus highlighting a more complex, time-dependent geochemical trend for the erupted magmas,with respect to a previously described trend at the nearby Colli AlbaniVolcanic District (0.6–0.04 Ma). Geochemical features of clinopyroxene in lavas and juvenile pyroclasts suggest that magma differentiation occurred in an open system due to assimilation of siliciclastic sedimentary rocks. Moreover, a critical review of the available geochemical data, in light of 40Ar/39Ar ages, allows the recognition of the SVD as the source of widespread tephra markers recorded in the central Mediterranean area by previous works.
    Description: Published
    Description: id 67
    Description: 1V. Storia eruttiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Sabatini Volcanic District ; Roman province ; Sr and Nd isotopes
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2020-07-02
    Description: We contribute to the debate on the identification of phase scintillation induced by the ionosphere on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) by introducing a phase detrending method able to provide realistic values of the phase scintillation index at high latitude. It is based on the Fast Iterative Filtering (FIF) signal decomposition technique, which is a recently developed fast implementation of the well-established Adaptive Local Iterative Filtering (ALIF) algorithm. FIF has been conceived to decompose nonstationary signals efficiently and providing a discrete set of oscillating functions, each of them having its frequency. It overcomes most of the problems that arise when using traditional time-frequency analysis techniques and relies on a consolidated mathematical basis since its a priori convergence and stability have been proved. By relying on the capability of FIF to efficiently identify the frequencies embedded in the GNSS raw phase, we define a method based on the FIF-derived spectral features to identify the proper cutoff frequency for phase detrending. To test such a method, we analyze the data acquired from GPS and Galileo signals over Antarctica during the September 2017 storm by the Ionospheric Scintillation Monitor Receiver (ISMR) located in Concordia Station (75.10°S, 123.33°E). Different cases of diffraction and refraction effects are provided, showing the capability of the method in deriving a more accurate determination of the SigmaPhi index. We found values of cutoff frequency in the range of 0.73 to 0.83 Hz, providing further evidence of the inadequacy of the choice of 0.1 Hz, which is often used when dealing with ionospheric scintillation monitoring at high latitudes.
    Description: This research is supported by TREASURE, a project funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions grant agreement n.722023 (http://ww.treasure-gnss.eu).
    Description: Published
    Description: id 85
    Description: 2TM. Divulgazione Scientifica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: ionospheric scintillation · plasma drift velocity · scintillation indices · refractive and diffractive effects · Galileo and GPS signals · data detrending ; Disentangling ionospheric refraction and diffraction effects in GNSS raw phase through fast iterative filtering technique
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Description: A possible driver of precipitation of magnetospheric energetic electrons in the high-latitude atmosphere is represented by electromagnetic ion-cyclotron (EMIC) magnetospheric waves. The precipitating particles produce variations, by collision, in the ionized component of the atmosphere, altering its chemistry and electrical conductivity, with a significant impact on the atmospheric processes. In this framework, it would be significant to find experimental evidence of a correspondence between ionospheric electron density irregularities and the occurrence of Ultra-Low-Frequency (ULF) Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations, i.e., the ground signatures of EMIC waves, at high latitudes. In this work, we face this subject by considering a specific case study occurred on 22 February 2007 during quiet magnetospheric conditions. The study is based on the analysis of simultaneous ULF geomagnetic field and Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements recorded at Mario Zucchelli Station in Antarctica. We show that Pc1 pulsations occur in correspondence to solar wind pressure increases and that, at the same time, the ionosphere is characterized by the presence of ionospheric irregularities. We suggest that a possible link between the Pc1 activity and the ionospheric irregularities may be energetic electron precipitations, driven by EMIC waves generated in the compressed magnetosphere, which produce density variations in the ionized component of the atmosphere.
    Description: Published
    Description: id 59
    Description: 1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo
    Description: 2A. Fisica dell'alta atmosfera
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2020-02-10
    Description: RAD7 and BigBottle system has been developed, using large glass bottles, but these are fragile and awkward to carry around. In searching for a better solution, we tested polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles for water samples storage to estimate radon loss over time. Two sets of experiments with 0.355 and 1.75 L bottles demonstrated that PET is a suitable material for storage. If correction for 226Ra content in water is applied, we can also calculate the rate of radon loss (0.03 ± 0.08 % day-1).
    Description: Published
    Description: 2277-2280
    Description: 2IT. Laboratori analitici e sperimentali
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Polyethylene terephthalate ; Radon loss from water during storage ; RAD7 ; BigBottle RADH2O ; 05.04. Instrumentation and techniques of general interest
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2020-03-09
    Description: Plastic has become indispensable for human life. When plastic debris is discarded into waterways, these items can interact with organisms. Of particular concern are microscopic plastic particles (microplastics) which are subject to ingestion by several taxa. This review summarizes the results of cutting-edge research about the interactions between a range of aquatic species and microplastics, including effects on biota physiology and secondary ingestion. Uptake pathways via digestive or ventilatory systems are discussed, including (1) the physical penetration of microplastic particles into cellular structures, (2) leaching of chemical additives or adsorbed persistent organic pollutants (POPs), and (3) consequences of bacterial or viral microbiota contamination associated with microplastic ingestion. Following uptake, a number of individual-level effects have been observed, including reduction of feeding activities, reduced growth and reproduction through cellular modifications, and oxidative stress. Microplastic-associated effects on marine biota have become increasingly investigated with growing concerns regarding human health through trophic transfer. We argue that research on the cellular interactions with microplastics provide an understanding of their impact to the organisms’ fitness and, therefore, its ability to sustain their functional role in the ecosystem. The review summarizes information from 236 scientific publications. Of those, only 4.6% extrapolate their research of microplastic intake on individual species to the impact on ecosystem functioning. We emphasize the need for risk evaluation from organismal effects to an ecosystem level to effectively evaluate the effect of microplastic pollution on marine environments. Further studies are encouraged to investigate sublethal effects in the context of environmentally relevant microplastic pollution conditions.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Book , peerRev
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2020-03-13
    Description: Arctic sea ice is a critical component of the climate system, known to in uence ocean circulation, earth’s albedo, and ocean–atmosphere heat and gas exchange. Current developments in the use of IP25 (a sea ice proxy with 25 carbon atoms only synthesized by Arctic sea ice diatoms) have proven it to be a suitable proxy for paleo-sea ice reconstructions over hundreds of thousands to even millions of years. In the NE Baffin Bay, off NW Greenland, Melville Bugt is a climate-sensitive region characterized by strong seasonal sea ice variability and strong melt-water discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). Here, we present a centennial-scale resolution Holocene sea ice record, based on IP25 and open-water phytoplankton biomarkers (brassicasterol, dinosterol and HBI III) using core GeoB19927-3 (73° 35.26′ N, 58° 05.66′ W). Seasonal to ice-edge conditions near the core site are documented for most of the Holocene period with some significant variability. In the lower-most part, a cold interval characterized by extensive sea ice cover and very low local productivity is succeeded by an interval (~ 9.4–8.5 ka BP) with reduced sea ice cover, enhanced GIS spring melting, and strong in uence of the West Greenland Current (WGC). From ~ 8.5 until ~ 7.8 ka BP, a cooling event is recorded by ice algae and phytoplankton biomarkers. They indicate an extended sea ice cover, possibly related to the opening of Nares Strait, which may have led to an increased influx of Polar Water into NE-Baffin Bay. The interval between ~ 7.8 and ~ 3.0 ka BP is characterized by generally reduced sea ice cover with millennial-scale variability of the (late winter/early spring) ice-edge limit, increased open-water conditions (polynya type), and a dominant WGC carrying warm waters at least as far as the Melville Bugt area. During the last ~ 3.0 ka BP, our biomarker records do not reflect the late Holocene ‘Neoglacial cooling’ observed elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to the persistent influence of the WGC and interactions with the adjacent fjords. Peaks in HBI III at about ~ 2.1 and ~ 1.3 ka BP, interpreted as persistent ice-edge situations, might correlate with the Roman Warm Period (RWP) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), respectively, in-phase with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode. When integrated with marine and terrestrial records from other circum-Baffin Bay areas (Disko Bay, the Canadian Arctic, the Labrador Sea), the Melville Bugt biomarker records point to close ties with high Arctic and Northern Hemispheric climate conditions, driven by solar and oceanic circulation forcings.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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  • 60
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Copernicus
    In:  EPIC3A global monthly climatology of oceanic total dissolved inorganic carbon: a neural network approach, Earth System Science Data Discussions, Copernicus, pp. 1-30
    Publication Date: 2020-03-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , notRev
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  • 61
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Springer
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology, Springer, ISSN: 2662-1495
    Publication Date: 2020-05-27
    Description: In situ profiles and fixed-altitude time series of all four components of net radiation were obtained at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (78.9° N, 11.9° E), in the period May 04–21, 2015. Measurements were performed using adapted high-quality instrumentation classified as “secondary standard” carried by a tethered balloon system. Balloon-lifted measurements of albedo under clear-sky conditions demonstrate the local dependence on altitude and on the surface inhomogeneity of this parameter over coastal terrain of Ny-Ålesund. Depending on the surface composition within the sensor’s footprint near the coastline, the albedo over predominantly snow-covered surfaces was found to decrease to 0.548 and 0.452 at 494 m and 881 m altitude compared with 0.731 and 0.788 measured with near-surface references, respectively. Albedo profiles show an all-sky maximum at 150 m above surface level due to local surface inhomogeneity, and an averaged vertical change rate of − 0.040/100 up to 750 m aboveground level (clear sky) and − 0.034/100 m (overcast). Profiling of arctic low-level clouds reveals distinct vertical gradients in all radiative fluxes but longwave upward at the cloud top. Observed radiative cooling at the top of a partly dissolving stratus cloud with heating rates of − 40.4 to − 62.1 Kd−1 in subsequent observations is exemplified.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 0001-5970
    Electronic ISSN: 1619-6937
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 0947-8396
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-0630
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 1083-8155
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-1642
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 0921-030X
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-0840
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 0010-485X
    Electronic ISSN: 1436-5057
    Topics: Computer Science
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 1618-954X
    Electronic ISSN: 1618-9558
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 0006-8314
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-1472
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 0001-5970
    Electronic ISSN: 1619-6937
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics , Physics
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  • 70
  • 71
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 0169-3867
    Electronic ISSN: 1572-8404
    Topics: Biology , Philosophy
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Description: According to Westermarck’s widely accepted explanation of the incest taboo, cultural prohibitions on sibling sex are rooted in an evolved biological disposition to feel sexual aversion toward our childhood coresidents. Bernard Williams posed the “representation problem” for Westermarck’s theory: the content of the hypothesized instinct (avoid sex with childhood coresidents) is different from the content of the incest taboo (avoid sex with siblings)—thus the former cannot be causally responsible for the latter. Arthur Wolf posed the related “moralization problem”: the instinct concerns personal behavior whereas the prohibition concerns everyone. This paper reviews possible ways of defending Westermarck’s theory from the representation and moralization problems, and concludes that the theory is untenable. A recent study purports to support Westermarck’s account by showing that unrelated children raised in the same peer groups on kibbutzim feel sexual aversion toward each other and morally oppose third-party intra-peer-group sex, but this study has been misinterpreted. I argue that the representation and moralization problems are general problems that could potentially undermine many popular evolutionary explanations of social/moral norms. The cultural evolution of morality is not tightly constrained by our biological endowment in the way some philosophers and evolutionary psychologists believe.
    Print ISSN: 0169-3867
    Electronic ISSN: 1572-8404
    Topics: Biology , Philosophy
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 0029-599X
    Electronic ISSN: 0945-3245
    Topics: Mathematics
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  • 74
  • 75
    Publication Date: 2020-06-01
    Print ISSN: 0735-2727
    Electronic ISSN: 1934-8061
    Topics: Electrical Engineering, Measurement and Control Technology
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2020-06-01
    Print ISSN: 0735-2727
    Electronic ISSN: 1934-8061
    Topics: Electrical Engineering, Measurement and Control Technology
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2020-06-01
    Print ISSN: 0735-2727
    Electronic ISSN: 1934-8061
    Topics: Electrical Engineering, Measurement and Control Technology
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2020-06-01
    Print ISSN: 0735-2727
    Electronic ISSN: 1934-8061
    Topics: Electrical Engineering, Measurement and Control Technology
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Description: Missing data value is an extensive problem in both research and industrial developers. Two general approaches are there to deal with the problem of missing values in databases; they could be either ignored (removed) or imputed (filled in) with new values (Farhangfar et al. in IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern-Part A: Syst Hum 37(5):692–709, 2007). For some SQL tables, it is possible that some candidate key of the table is not null-free and this needs to be handled. Possible keys and certain keys to deal with this situation were introduced in Köhler et al. (VLDB J 25(4):571–596, 2016). In the present paper, we introduce an intermediate concept called strongly possible keys that is based on a data mining approach using only information already contained in the SQL table. A strongly possible key is a key that holds for some possible world which is obtained by replacing any occurrences of nulls with some values already appearing in the corresponding attributes. Implication among strongly possible keys is characterized, and Armstrong tables are constructed. An algorithm to verify a strongly possible key is given applying bipartite matching. Connection between matroid intersection problem and system of strongly possible keys is established. For the cases when no strongly possible keys hold, an approximation notion is introduced to calculate the closeness of any given set of attributes to be considered as a strongly possible key using the $$g_3$$ g 3 measure, and we derive its component version $$g_4$$ g 4 . Analytical comparisons are given between the two measures.
    Print ISSN: 1861-2032
    Electronic ISSN: 1861-2040
    Topics: Computer Science
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 0921-030X
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-0840
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 1618-954X
    Electronic ISSN: 1618-9558
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2020-06-01
    Print ISSN: 0735-2727
    Electronic ISSN: 1934-8061
    Topics: Electrical Engineering, Measurement and Control Technology
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2020-08-01
    Description: In the effective action approach the imaginary part of the triple pomeron amplitude is calculated. The found dependence on the longitudinal momentum transfer $$e_{-}$$e- is found to separate as a simple factor $$1/|e_{-}|$$1/|e-|. This result is used to calculate the high-mass diffraction on a hadron and double scattering cross-section off a composite target.
    Print ISSN: 1434-6044
    Electronic ISSN: 1434-6052
    Topics: Physics
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Print ISSN: 0020-7128
    Electronic ISSN: 1432-1254
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2020-08-18
    Print ISSN: 0268-3768
    Electronic ISSN: 1433-3015
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Electronic ISSN: 2192-1709
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2020-08-18
    Print ISSN: 0268-3768
    Electronic ISSN: 1433-3015
    Topics: Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
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  • 88
  • 89
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: The concept of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) is commonly applied to quantify the impact of clouds on the surface radiative energy budget (REB). In the Arctic, specific radiative interactions between microphysical and macrophysical properties of clouds and the surface strongly modify the warming or cooling effect of clouds, complicating the estimate of CRF obtained from observations or models. Clouds tend to increase the broadband surface albedo over snow or sea ice surfaces compared to cloud-free conditions. However, this effect is not adequately considered in the derivation of CRF in the Arctic so far. Therefore, we have quantified the effects caused by surface-albedo–cloud interactions over highly reflective snow or sea ice surfaces on the CRF using radiative transfer simulations and below-cloud airborne observations above the heterogeneous springtime marginal sea ice zone (MIZ) during the Arctic CLoud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar Day (ACLOUD) campaign. The impact of a modified surface albedo in the presence of clouds, as compared to cloud-free conditions, and its dependence on cloud optical thickness is found to be relevant for the estimation of the shortwave CRF. A method is proposed to consider this surface albedo effect on CRF estimates by continuously retrieving the cloud-free surface albedo from observations under cloudy conditions, using an available snow and ice albedo parameterization. Using ACLOUD data reveals that the estimated average shortwave cooling by clouds almost doubles over snow- and ice-covered surfaces (−62 W m−2 instead of −32 W m−2), if surface-albedo–cloud interactions are considered. As a result, the observed total (shortwave plus longwave) CRF shifted from a warming effect to an almost neutral one. Concerning the seasonal cycle of the surface albedo, it is demonstrated that this effect enhances shortwave cooling in periods when snow dominates the surface and potentially weakens the cooling by optically thin clouds during the summertime melting season. These findings suggest that the surface-albedo–cloud interaction should be considered in global climate models and in long-term studies to obtain a realistic estimate of the shortwave CRF to quantify the role of clouds in Arctic amplification.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2020-08-01
    Print ISSN: 1126-6708
    Electronic ISSN: 1029-8479
    Topics: Physics
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: The evaluation of potential landslides in mountain areas is a very complex process. Currently, event understanding is scarce due to information limitations. Identifying the whole chain of events is not a straightforward task, and the impacts of mass-wasting processes depend on the conditions downstream of the origin. In this paper, we present an example that illustrates the complexities in the evaluation of the chain of events that may lead to a natural disaster. On 16 December 2017, a landslide occurred in the Yelcho mountain range (southern Chile). In that event, 7 million m3 of rocks and soil fell on the Yelcho glacier, depositing 2 million m3 on the glacier terminal, and the rest continued downstream, triggering a mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia and killing 22 people. The complex event was anticipated in the region by the National Geological and Mining Survey (Sernageomin in Spanish). However, the effects of the terrain characteristics along the run-out area were more significant than anticipated. In this work, we evaluate the conditions that enabled the mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía. We used the information generated by Sernageomin's professionals after the mudflow. We carried out geotechnical tests to characterize the soil. We simulated the mudflow using two hydrodynamic programs (r.avaflow and Flo-2D) that can handle the rheology of the water–soil mixture. Our results indicate that the soil is classified as volcanic pumices. This type of soil can be susceptible to the collapse of the structure when subjected to shearing (molding), flowing as a viscous liquid. From the numerical modeling, we concluded that r.avaflow performs better than Flo-2D. The mudflow was satisfactorily simulated using a water content in the mixture ranging from 30 % to 40 %, which would have required a source of about 3 million m3 of water. Coupling the simulations and the soil tests that we performed, we estimated that in the area scoured by the mudflow, there were probably around 2 800 000 m3 of water within the soil. Therefore, the conditions of the valley were crucial to enhancing the impacts of the landslide. This result is relevant because it highlights the importance of evaluating the complete chain of events to map hazards. We suggest that in future hazard mapping, geotechnical studies in combination with hydrodynamic simulation should be included, in particular when human lives are at risk.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: Production and reduction of nitrous oxide (N2O) by soil denitrifiers influence atmospheric concentrations of this potent greenhouse gas. Accurate projections of the net N2O flux have three key uncertainties: (1) short- vs. long-term responses to warming, (2) interactions among soil horizons, and (3) temperature responses of different steps in the denitrification pathway. We addressed these uncertainties by sampling soil from a boreal forest climate transect encompassing a 5.2 ∘C difference in the mean annual temperature and incubating the soil horizons in isolation and together at three ecologically relevant temperatures in conditions that promote denitrification. Both short-term exposure to warmer temperatures and long-term exposure to a warmer climate increased N2O emissions from organic and mineral soils; an isotopic tracer suggested that an increase in N2O production was more important than a decline in N2O reduction. Short-term warming promoted the reduction of organic horizon-derived N2O by mineral soil when these horizons were incubated together. The abundance of nirS (a precursor gene for N2O production) was not sensitive to temperature, whereas that of nosZ clade I (a gene for N2O reduction) decreased with short-term warming in both horizons and was higher from a warmer climate. These results suggest a decoupling of gene abundance and process rates in these soils that differs across horizons and timescales. In spite of these variations, our results suggest a consistent, positive response of denitrifier-mediated net N2O efflux rates to temperature across timescales in these boreal forests. Our work also highlights the importance of understanding cross-horizon N2O fluxes for developing a predictive understanding of net N2O efflux from soils.
    Print ISSN: 2199-3971
    Electronic ISSN: 2199-398X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Print ISSN: 1672-7975
    Electronic ISSN: 1993-0658
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: Wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural sources of atmospheric methane (CH4). Several process-based models have been developed to quantify the magnitude and estimate spatial and temporal variations in CH4 emissions from global wetlands. Reliable models are required to estimate global wetland CH4 emissions. This study aimed to test two process-based models, CH4MODwetland and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), against the CH4 flux measurements of marsh, swamp, peatland and coastal wetland sites across the world; specifically, model accuracy and generality were evaluated for different wetland types and in different continents, and then the global CH4 emissions from 2000 to 2010 were estimated. Both models showed similar high correlations with the observed seasonal/annual total CH4 emissions, and the regression of the observed versus computed total seasonal/annual CH4 emissions resulted in R2 values of 0.81 and 0.68 for CH4MODwetland and TEM, respectively. The CH4MODwetland produced accurate predictions for marshes, peatlands, swamps and coastal wetlands, with model efficiency (EF) values of 0.22, 0.52, 0.13 and 0.72, respectively. TEM produced good predictions for peatlands and swamps, with EF values of 0.69 and 0.74, respectively, but it could not accurately simulate marshes and coastal wetlands (EF 
    Print ISSN: 1991-959X
    Electronic ISSN: 1991-9603
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2020-08-01
    Print ISSN: 1126-6708
    Electronic ISSN: 1029-8479
    Topics: Physics
    Published by Springer
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: As knowledge about the cirrus clouds in the lower stratosphere is limited, reliable long-term measurements are needed to assess their characteristics, radiative impact and important role in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) chemistry. We used 6 years (2006–2012) of Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements to investigate the global and seasonal distribution of stratospheric cirrus clouds and compared the MIPAS results with results derived from the latest version (V4.x) of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data. For the identification of stratospheric cirrus clouds, precise information on both the cloud top height (CTH) and the tropopause height is crucial. Here, we used lapse rate tropopause heights estimated from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis. Considering the uncertainties of the tropopause heights and the vertical sampling grid, we define CTHs more than 0.5 km above the tropopause as stratospheric for CALIPSO data. For MIPAS data, we took into account the coarser vertical sampling grid and the broad field of view so that we considered cirrus CTHs detected more than 0.75 km above the tropopause as stratospheric. Further sensitivity tests were conducted to rule out sampling artefacts in MIPAS data. The global distribution of stratospheric cirrus clouds was derived from night-time measurements because of the higher detection sensitivity of CALIPSO. In both data sets, MIPAS and CALIPSO, the stratospheric cirrus cloud occurrence frequencies are significantly higher in the tropics than in the extra-tropics. Tropical hotspots of stratospheric cirrus clouds associated with deep convection are located over equatorial Africa, South and Southeast Asia, the western Pacific, and South America. Stratospheric cirrus clouds were more often detected in December–February (15 %) than June–August (8 %) in the tropics (±20∘). At northern and southern middle latitudes (40–60∘), MIPAS observed about twice as many stratospheric cirrus clouds (occurrence frequencies of 4 %–5 % for MIPAS rather than about 2 % for CALIPSO). We attribute more frequent observations of stratospheric cirrus clouds with MIPAS to the higher detection sensitivity of the instrument to optically thin clouds. In contrast to the difference between daytime and night-time occurrence frequencies of stratospheric cirrus clouds by a factor of about 2 in zonal means in the tropics (4 % and 10 %, respectively) and at middle latitudes for CALIPSO data, there is little diurnal cycle in MIPAS data, in which the difference of occurrence frequencies in the tropics is about 1 percentage point in zonal mean and about 0.5 percentage point at middle latitudes. The difference between CALIPSO day and night measurements can also be attributed to their differences in detection sensitivity. Future work should focus on better understanding the origin of the stratospheric cirrus clouds and their impact on radiative forcing and climate.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: Air quality on our planet has been changing in particular since the industrial revolution (1750s) because of anthropogenic emissions. It is becoming increasingly important to realize air cleanliness, since clean air is as valuable a resource as clean water. A global standard for quantifying the level of air cleanliness is swiftly required, and we defined a novel concept, namely the Clean aIr Index (CII). The CII is a simple index defined by the normalization of the amount of a set of individual air pollutants. A CII value of 1 indicates completely clean air (no air pollutants), and 0 indicates the presence of air pollutants that meet the numerical environmental criteria for the normalization. In this time, the air pollutants used in the CII were taken from the Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) set by the World Health Organization (WHO), namely O3, particulate matters, NO2, and SO2. We chose Japan as a study area to evaluate CII because of the following reasons: (i) accurate validation data, as the in situ observation sites of the Atmospheric Environmental Regional Observation System (AEROS) provide highly accurate values of air pollutant amounts, and (ii) fixed numerical criteria from the Japanese Environmental Quality Standards (JEQS) as directed by the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) of Japan. We quantified air cleanliness in terms of the CII for the all 1896 municipalities in Japan and used data from Seoul and Beijing to evaluate Japanese air cleanliness. The amount of each air pollutant was calculated using a model that combined the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models for 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2017. The CII values calculated by the WRF–CMAQ model and the AEROS measurements showed good agreement. The mean of the correlation coefficient for the CII values of 498 municipalities where the AEROS measurements operated was 0.66±0.05, which was higher than that of the Air Quality Index (AQI) of 0.57±0.06. The CII values averaged for the study period were 0.67, 0.52, and 0.24 in Tokyo, Seoul, and Beijing, respectively; thus, the air in Tokyo was 1.5 and 2.3 times cleaner, i.e., lower amounts of air pollutants, than the air in Seoul and Beijing, respectively. The average CII value for the all Japanese municipalities was 0.72 over the study period. The extremely clean air, CII ≈0.90, occurred in the southern remote islands of Tokyo and to the west of the Pacific coast, i.e., Kochi, Mie, and Wakayama prefectures during summer, with the transport of clean air from the ocean. We presented the top 100 clean air cities in Japan as one example of an application of CII in society. We confirmed that the CII enabled the quantitative evaluation of air cleanliness. The CII can be useful and valuable in various scenarios such as encouraging sightseeing and migration, investment and insurance business, and city planning. The CII is a simple and fair index that can be applied to all nations.
    Print ISSN: 2569-7102
    Electronic ISSN: 2569-7110
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: Calculating a multi-model mean, a commonly used method for ensemble averaging, assumes model independence and equal model skill. Sharing of model components amongst families of models and research centres, conflated by growing ensemble size, means model independence cannot be assumed and is hard to quantify. We present a methodology to produce a weighted-model ensemble projection, accounting for model performance and model independence. Model weights are calculated by comparing model hindcasts to a selection of metrics chosen for their physical relevance to the process or phenomena of interest. This weighting methodology is applied to the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ensemble to investigate Antarctic ozone depletion and subsequent recovery. The weighted mean projects an ozone recovery to 1980 levels, by 2056 with a 95 % confidence interval (2052–2060), 4 years earlier than the most recent study. Perfect-model testing and out-of-sample testing validate the results and show a greater projective skill than a standard multi-model mean. Interestingly, the construction of a weighted mean also provides insight into model performance and dependence between the models. This weighting methodology is robust to both model and metric choices and therefore has potential applications throughout the climate and chemistry–climate modelling communities.
    Print ISSN: 1680-7316
    Electronic ISSN: 1680-7324
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: Connections between vegetation and soil thermal dynamics are critical for estimating the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw with continued climate warming and vegetation changes. The interplay of complex biophysical processes results in a highly heterogeneous soil temperature distribution on small spatial scales. Moreover, the link between topsoil temperature and active layer thickness remains poorly constrained. Sixty-eight temperature loggers were installed at 1–3 cm depth to record the distribution of topsoil temperatures at the Trail Valley Creek study site in the northwestern Canadian Arctic. The measurements were distributed across six different vegetation types characteristic for this landscape. Two years of topsoil temperature data were analysed statistically to identify temporal and spatial characteristics and their relationship to vegetation, snow cover, and active layer thickness. The mean annual topsoil temperature varied between −3.7 and 0.1 ∘C within 0.5 km2. The observed variation can, to a large degree, be explained by variation in snow cover. Differences in snow depth are strongly related with vegetation type and show complex associations with late-summer thaw depth. While cold winter soil temperature is associated with deep active layers in the following summer for lichen and dwarf shrub tundra, we observed the opposite beneath tall shrubs and tussocks. In contrast to winter observations, summer topsoil temperature is similar below all vegetation types with an average summer topsoil temperature difference of less than 1 ∘C. Moreover, there is no significant relationship between summer soil temperature or cumulative positive degree days and active layer thickness. Altogether, our results demonstrate the high spatial variability of topsoil temperature and active layer thickness even within specific vegetation types. Given that vegetation type defines the direction of the relationship between topsoil temperature and active layer thickness in winter and summer, estimates of permafrost vulnerability based on remote sensing or model results will need to incorporate complex local feedback mechanisms of vegetation change and permafrost thaw.
    Print ISSN: 1726-4170
    Electronic ISSN: 1726-4189
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: Evapotranspiration (ET) from tropical forests serves as a critical moisture source for regional and global climate cycles. However, the magnitude, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET in the Congo Basin remain poorly constrained due to a scarcity of direct observations, despite the Congo being the second-largest river basin in the world and containing a vast region of tropical forest. In this study, we applied a water balance model to an array of remotely sensed and in situ datasets to produce monthly, basin-wide ET estimates spanning April 2002 to November 2016. Data sources include water storage changes estimated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in situ measurements of river discharge, and precipitation from several remotely sensed and gauge-based sources. An optimal precipitation dataset was determined as a weighted average of interpolated data by Nicholson et al. (2018), Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Station data version 2 (CHIRPS2) , and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record product (PERSIANN-CDR), with the relative weights based on the error magnitudes of each dataset as determined by triple collocation. The resulting water-balance-derived ET (ETwb) features a long-term average that is consistent with previous studies (117.2±3.5 cm yr−1) but displays greater seasonal and interannual variability than seven global ET products. The seasonal cycle of ETwb generally tracks that of precipitation over the basin, with the exception that ETwb is greater in March–April–May (MAM) than in the relatively wetter September–October–November (SON) periods. This pattern appears to be driven by seasonal variations in the diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) fraction, net radiation (Rn), and soil water availability. From 2002 to 2016, Rn, PAR, and vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) all increased significantly within the Congo Basin; however, no corresponding trend occurred in ETwb. We hypothesize that the stability of ETwb over the study period despite sunnier and less humid conditions may be due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations that offset the impacts of rising VPD and irradiance on stomatal water use efficiency (WUE).
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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