ALBERT

Beschreibung: Author(s): Gianfranco Bertone and Dan Hooper The standard model of modern cosmology is unthinkable without dark matter, although direct detections are still missing. A broad perspective of how dark matter was postulated and became accepted is presented, from prehistory, over observations of galaxy clusters, galaxy rotation curves, the search for baryonic dark matter, possible alternative explanations via modified gravity, up to the hunt for dark matter particles. The interplay is described between observational discoveries and theoretical arguments which led finally to the adoption of this paradigm. [Rev. Mod. Phys. 90, 045002] Published Mon Oct 15, 2018

Beschreibung: Author(s): A. Kashlinsky, R. G. Arendt, F. Atrio-Barandela, N. Cappelluti, A. Ferrara, and G. Hasinger While the cosmic microwave background originates from the very early Universe, the cosmic infrared background contains the cumulative emission of sources from the earliest epochs to the present time. It is generated from nucleosynthetic sources and gravitational sources. The source-subtracted spatial fluctuations of the cosmic infrared background provide information on the brightness and clustering of sources too faint to detect individually. Among these are the very first stars in the Universe and an unexpectedly large fraction of black holes. Observational and theoretical efforts at decoding the cosmic infrared background are presented together with possible future tests and prospects. [Rev. Mod. Phys. 90, 025006] Published Tue Jun 19, 2018

Beschreibung: The climate system is well known for its great complexity and complex interactions that involve dynamic, thermodynamic, radiative, chemical, biological and human-driven processes. This view of the climate system has emerged from detailed measurements, meticulous record keeping, and theoretical analyses arising from, and made possible by the science and technology revolution that greatly advanced our understanding the role of physical processes that operate in the global climate system. These measurements also show very clearly that the global surface temperature has been rising over the past century, and that this is a consequence of human industrial activity.

Beschreibung: David Rind has played a central role in the science of the modeling of climate change. He was the scientific driving force behind the development and evaluation of the first Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model (GCM), Model II. Model II was one of the three original GCMs whose projections of climate change in response to a doubling of CO2 concentration were the basis for the influential Charney Report that produced the first assessment of global climate sensitivity. David used Model II to pioneer the scientific field of climate dynamics, performing a broad range of investigations of processes controlling individual elements of the general circulation and how they changed over a wide range of past and potential future climates. The defining characteristic of Davids papers is his unique talent for tracking down the myriad links and causal chains among different parts of the nonlinear climate system. Rather than viewing climate using a simple forcing-and-response paradigm, David showed that the global energy, water, and even momentum cycles are coupled via the general circulation and its transports.

Beschreibung: Climate, or the average of day-to-day weather, can be very different at various points on Earth. The local climate in the Arabian Desert is hot and dry, while that in the Amazon River basin is hot and humid with frequent rain. In upstate New York, the climate changes from being warm in the summer with sporadic rain to cold in the winter with sporadic snow. Hawaii, on the other hand, has a pleasant climate all year long. However, the day-to-day weather at all of these locations is much more variable. There can be dry days in the Amazon jungle, and rainy days in the Arabian Desert. There are some days in winter that are warmer than some days in summer. For further contrast, daylight in Antarctica lasts up to six months at a time with freezing cold day-in day-out. Can a climate model be built that can reproduce all of this complex behavior?

Beschreibung: Climate change will profoundly impact Earth's environmental health as well as the world's economic and geopolitical landscape over the coming decades. The impacts of climate change are, in fact, already beginning to be experienced and have the potential to affect every living plant and animal on Earth within decades. Given this reality, every citizen of this planet should have the right to knowledge about the Earth's climate system and have the option to adapt to, or help mitigate the profound changes that are coming. In addition, a portion of the workforce needs to be capable of interpreting and analyzing climate information because, since the impacts of climate change will be widespread, pervasive, and continue to change over time, more professions will be interacting with climate data. We are already at, or past, the point where educators and their students require access to the scientific and technological resources - computer models, data, and visualization tools - that scientists use daily in the study of climate change. Although scientists use many methods to study Earth's climate system, global climate models (GCMs) have become the primary tools for exploring the complex interactions between components of the entire system: atmosphere, oceans, and land. GCMs are used to make projections of future climate change, to simulate climates of the past, and even to help scientists look for life on other planets. Like any model, a GCM can help people evaluate actions before they are taken. Like Business Intelligence software, they are Climate Intelligence tools. Unfortunately, GCMs are black boxes to most people. A previous chapter in this book by Gary Russell, entitled Building a Climate Model, is one example of the growing body of literature aimed at the general public describing the inner workings of global climate models. This literature goes a long way toward explaining climate model fundamentals. However, it will not be enough to alleviate their black-box nature unless people are afforded hands-on, authentic learning experiences as well.

Beschreibung: We present ALMA 0.87 mm continuum, HCO+ J = 43 emission line, and CO J = 32 emission line data of the disk of material around the young, Sun-like star PDS 70. These data reveal the existence of a possible two-component transitional disk system with a radial dust gap of 0.42 arcsec 0.05 arcsec, an azimuthal gap in the HCO+ J = 43 moment zero map, as well as two bridge-like features in the gas data. Interestingly these features in the gas disk have no analog in the dust disk making them of particular interest. We modeled the dust disk using the Monte Carlo radiative transfer code HOCHUNK3D using a two-disk component. We nd that there is a radial gap that extends from 15 to 60 au in all grain sizes, which differs from previous work.

Beschreibung: Large-scale spiral arms have been revealed in scattered light images of a few protoplanetary disks. Theoretical models suggest that such arms may be driven by and corotate with giant planets, which has called for remarkable observational efforts to look for them. By examining the rotation of the spiral arms for the MWC 758 system over a 10 year timescale, we are able to provide dynamical constraints on the locations of their perturbers. We present reprocessed Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/NICMOS F110W observations of the target in 2005, and the new Keck/NIRC2 L'-band observations in 2017. MWC 758's two well-known spiral arms are revealed in the NICMOS archive at the earliest observational epoch. With additional Very Large Telescope (VLT)/SPHERE data, our joint analysis leads to a pattern speed of 0.6(sup +3.3, sub -0.6)/yr at 3 for the two major spiral arms. If the two arms are induced by a perturber on a near-circular orbit, its best-fit orbit is at 89 au (0."59), with a 3 lower limit of 30 au (0."20). This finding is consistent with the simulation prediction of the location of an arm-driving planet for the two major arms in the system.

Beschreibung: Subseasonal forecast skill of the global hydrostatic atmospheric Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM) coupled to an icosahedral-grid version of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) is evaluated through 32-day predictions initialized weekly using a four-member time-lagged ensemble over the 16-yr period 19992014. Systematic biases in forecasts by the coupled system, referred to as FIMiHYCOM, are described in a companion paper (Part I). This present study (Part II) assesses probabilistic and deterministic model skill for predictions of surface temperature, precipitation, and 500-hPa geopotential height in different seasons at different lead times ranging from 1 to 4 weeks. The coupled model appears to have reasonable agreement with reanalysis in terms of simulated weekly variability in sea surface temperatures, except in extratropical regions because the ocean model cannot explicitly resolve eddies there. This study also describes the ability of the model to simulate midlatitude tropospheric blocking frequency, MaddenJulian oscillation patterns, and sudden stratospheric warming eventsall of which have been shown to be relevant on subseasonal time scales. The metrics used here indicate that the subseasonal forecast skill of the model is comparable to that of several operational models, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAAs) operational Climate Forecast System version 2 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Therefore, FIMiHYCOMas a participant in NOAAs Subseasonal Experimentis expected to add value to multimodel ensemble forecasts produced through this effort.

Beschreibung: The HST Treasury Program Advanced Spectral Library Project: Cool Stars was designed to collect representative, high-quality UV spectra of eight evolved FM type cool stars. The Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS)echelle spectra of these objects enable investigations of a broad range of topics, including stellar and interstellar astrophysics. This paper provides a guide to the spectra of the two evolved M stars, the M2 Iab supergiant Oriand the M3.4 giant Cru, with comparisons to the prototypical K1.5 giant Boo. It includes identifications of the significant atomic and molecular emission and absorption features and discusses the character of the photospheric and chromospheric continua and line spectra. The fluorescent processes responsible for a large portion of the emission-line spectrum, the characteristics of the stellar winds, and the available diagnostics for hot and cool plasmas are also summarized. This analysis will facilitate the future study of the spectra, outer atmospheres, and winds, not only of these objects but of numerous other cool, low-gravity stars, for years to come.

Beschreibung: Kiefer et al. reported the detection of in falling Ca(sub II) absorption in HD 172555, a member of the Pictoris Moving Group (PMG). We obtained HST Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph and Cosmic Origins Spectrograph spectroscopy of this star at 2 epochs separated by a week, and we report the discovery of infalling gas in resonant transitions of Si(sub III and IV), C(sub II and IV), and neutral atomic oxygen. Variable absorption is seen in the C(sub II) transitions and is optically thick, with covering factors which range between 58% and 68%, similar to features seen in Pictoris. The O(sub I) spectral profile resembles that of C(sub II), showing a strong low-velocity absorption to +50 km s(exp 1) in the single spectral segment obtained during orbital night, as well as what may be higher-velocity absorption. Studies of the mid-IR spectrum of this system have suggested the presence of silica. The O(sub I) absorption differs from that seen in Si(sub III), suggesting that the neutral atomic oxygen does not originate in SiO dissociation products but in a more volatile parent molecule such as CO.

Beschreibung: We conducted high-contrast polarimetry observations of T Tau in the H-band, using the High Contrast Instrument for the Subaru Next Generation Adaptive Optics instrument mounted on the Subaru Telescope, revealing structures as near as 0farcs1 from the stars T Tau N and T Tau S. The whole T Tau system is found to be surrounded by nebula-like envelopes, and several outflow-related structures are detected in these envelopes. We analyzed the detailed polarization patterns of the circumstellar structures near each component of this triple young star system and determined constraints on the circumstellar disks and outflow structures. We suggest that the nearly face-on circumstellar disk of T Tau N is no larger than 0".8, or 117 au, in the northwest, based on the existence of a hole in this direction, and no larger than 0".27, or 40 au, in the south. A new structure, "N5," extends to about 0."42, or 59 au, southwest of the star, and is believed to be part of the disk. We suggest that T Tau S is surrounded by a highly inclined circumbinary disk with a radius of about 0."3, or 44 au, with a position angle of about 30, that is misaligned with the orbit of the T Tau S binary. After analyzing the positions and polarization vector patterns of the outflow-related structures, we suggest that T Tau S should trigger the well-known EW outflow, and is also likely to be responsible for a southwest precessing outflow "coil" and a possible south outflow.

Beschreibung: The low-mass X-ray binary 4U1705-44 exhibits dramatic long-term X-ray time variability with a timescale of several hundred days. The All-Sky Monitor (ASM) aboard the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) and the Japanese Monitor of All-sky X-ray Image (MAXI) aboard the International Space Station together have continuously observed the source from December 1995 through May 2014. The combined ASM-MAXI data provide a continuous time series over fifty times the length of the timescale of interest. Topological analysis can help us identify fingerprints in the phase-space of a system unique to its equations of motion. The Birman- Williams theorem postulates that if such fingerprints are the same between two systems, then their equations of motion must be closely related. The phase-space embedding of the source light curve shows a strong resemblance to the double-welled nonlinear Duffing oscillator. We explore a range of parameters for which the Duffing oscillator closely mirrors the time evolution of 4U1705-44.We extract low period, unstable periodic orbits from the 4U1705-44 and Duffing time series and compare their topological information. The Duffing and 4U1705- 44 topological properties are identical, providing strong evidence that they share the same underlying template. This suggests that we can look to the Duffing equation to help guide the development of a physical model to describe the long-term X-ray variability of this and other similarly behaved X-ray binary systems.

Beschreibung: Context. The nearby and young M star AU Mic is surrounded by a debris disk in which we previously identified a series of large-scale arch-like structures that have never been seen before in any other debris disk and that move outward at high velocities. Aims. We initiated a monitoring program with the following objectives: (1) track the location of the structures and better constrain their projected speeds, (2) search for new features emerging closer in, and ultimately (3) understand the mechanism responsible for the motion and production of the disk features. Methods. AU Mic was observed at 11 different epochs between August 2014 and October 2017 with the IR camera and spectrograph of SPHERE. These high-contrast imaging data were processed with a variety of angular, spectral, and polarimetric differential imaging techniques to reveal the faintest structures in the disk. We measured the projected separations of the features in a systematic way for all epochs. We also applied the very same measurements to older observations from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) with the visible cameras STIS and ACS. Results. The main outcomes of this work are (1) the recovery of the five southeastern broad arch-like structures we identified in our first study, and confirmation of their fast motion (projected speed in the range 412 km/s); (2) the confirmation that the very first structures observed in 2004 with ACS are indeed connected to those observed later with STIS and now SPHERE; (3) the discovery of two new very compact structures at the northwest side of the disk (at 0.40 and 0.55 in May 2015) that move to the southeast at low speed; and (4) the identification of a new arch-like structure that might be emerging at the southeast side at about 0.4 from the star (as of May 2016). Conclusions. Although the exquisite sensitivity of SPHERE allows one to follow the evolution not only of the projected separation, but also of the specific morphology of each individual feature, it remains difficult to distinguish between possible dynamical scenarios that may explain the observations. Understanding the exact origin of these features, the way they are generated, and their evolution over time is certainly a significant challenge in the context of planetary system formation around M stars.

Beschreibung: We present five epochs of near-IR observations of the protoplanetary disk around MWC 480 (HD 31648) obtained with the SpeX spectrograph on NASAs Infrared Telescope Facility between 2007 and 2013, inclusive. Using the measured line fluxes in the Pa and Br lines, we found the mass accretion rates to be (1.262.30) x 10(exp 7) Solar Mass/yr and (1.42.01) x 10(exp 7) Solar Mass/yr, respectively, but which varied by more than 50% from epoch to epoch. The spectral energy distribution reveals a variability of about 30% between 1.5 and 10 m during this same period of time. We investigated the variability using of the continuum emission of the disk in using the Monte- Carlo Radiative Transfer Code HOCHUNK3D. We find that varying the height of the inner rim successfully produces a change in the NIR flux but lowers the far-IR emission to levels below all measured fluxes. Because the star exhibits bipolar flows, we utilized a structure that simulates an inner disk wind to model the variability in the near-IR, without producing flux levels in the far-IR that are inconsistent with existing data. For this object, variable near-IR emission due to such an outflow is more consistent with the data than changing the scale height of the inner rim of the disk.

Beschreibung: The intent of this white paper is to inform WMO projects and working groups, together with the broader weather research and general meteorology and oceanography communities, regarding the use of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). This paper is not intended to be either a critical or cursory review of past OSSE efforts. Instead, it describes some fundamental, but often neglected, aspects of OSSEs and prescribes important caveats regarding their design, validation, and application. Well designed, properly validated, and carefully conducted OSSEs can be invaluable for examining, understanding, and estimating impacts of proposed observing systems and new data assimilation techniques. Although significant imperfections and limitations should be expected, OSSEs either profoundly complement or uniquely provide both qualitative and quantitative characterizations of potential analysis of components of the earth system.

Beschreibung: The Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission was selected by NASA as part of the Earth Venture-Instrument (EVI-3) program. The overarching goal for TROPICS is to provide nearly all-weather observations of 3D temperature and humidity, as well as cloud ice and precipitation horizontal structure, at high temporal resolution to conduct high-value science investigations of tropical cyclones. TROPICS will provide rapid-refresh microwave measurements (median refresh rate better than 60 min for the baseline mission) which can be used to observe the thermodynamics of the troposphere and precipitation structure for storm systems at the mesoscale and synoptic scale over the entire storm life cycle. TROPICS comprises six Cube-Sats in three low-Earth orbital planes. Each CubeSat will host a high-performance radiometer to provide temperature profiles using seven channels near the 118.75 GHz oxygen absorption line, water vapour profiles using three channels near the 183 GHz water vapour absorption line, imagery in a single channel near 90 GHz for precipitation measurements (when combined with higher-resolution water vapour channels), and a single channel near 205 GHz which is more sensitive to precipitation-sized ice particles. This observing system offers an unprecedented combination of horizontal and temporal resolution to measure environmental and inner-core conditions for tropical cyclones on a nearly global scale and is a major leap forward in the temporal resolution of several key parameters needed for assimilation into advanced data assimilation systems capable of utilizing rapid-update radiance or retrieval data.Launch readiness is currently projected for late 2019.

Beschreibung: Vertical variability in the raindrop size distribution (RSD) can disrupt the basic assumption of a constant rain profile that is customarily parameterized in radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) techniques. This study investigates the utility of melting layer (ML) characteristics to help prescribe the RSD, in particular the mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm), of stratiform rainfall. We utilize ground-based polarimetric radar to map the ML and compare it with Dm observations from the ground upwards to the bottom of the ML. The results show definitive proof that a thickening, and to a lesser extent a lowering, of the ML causes an increase in raindrop diameter below the ML that extends to the surface. The connection between rainfall at the ground and the overlying microphysics in the column provide a means for improving radar QPE at far distances from a ground-based radar or close to the ground where satellite-based radar rainfall retrievals can be ill-defined.

Beschreibung: Pairs of azimuthal intensity decrements at near-symmetric locations have been seen in a number of protoplanetary disks. They are most commonly interpreted as the two shadows cast by a highly misaligned inner disk. Direct evidence of such an inner disk, however, remains largely illusive, except in rare cases. In 2012, a pair of such shadows were discovered in scattered-light observations of the near face-on disk around 2MASS J16042165- 2130284, a transitional object with a cavity 60 au in radius. The star itself is a dipper, with quasi-periodic dimming events on its light curve, commonly hypothesized as caused by extinctions by transiting dusty structures in the inner disk. Here, we report the detection of a gas disk inside the cavity using Atacama Large Millimeter/ submillimeter Array (ALMA) observations with 0".2 angular resolution. A twisted butterfly pattern is found in the moment 1 map of the CO (32) emission line toward the center, which is the key signature of a high misalignment between the inner and outer disks. In addition, the counterparts of the shadows are seen in both dust continuum emission and gas emission maps, consistent with these regions being cooler than their surroundings. Our ndings strongly support the hypothesized misaligned inner disk origin of the shadows in the J1604-2130 disk. Finally, the inclination of the inner disk would be close to 45 in contrast with 45; it is possible that its internal asymmetric structures cause the variations on the light curve of the host star.

Beschreibung: We report an orbital characterization of GJ1108Aab that is a low-mass binary system in the pre-main-sequence phase. Via the combination of astrometry using adaptive optics and radial velocity measurements, an eccentric orbital solution of e = 0.63 is obtained, which might be induced by the KozaiLidov mechanism with a widely separated GJ1108B system. Combined with several observed properties, we conrm that the system is indeed young. Columba is the most probable moving group, to which the GJ1108A system belongs, although its membership to the group has not been established. If the age of Columba is assumed for GJ1108A, the dynamical masses of both GJ1108Aa and GJ1108Ab (M(sub dynamical,GJ1108Aa) = 0.72 0.04 Solar Mass and M(sub dynamical,GJ1108Ab) = 0.30 0.03 Solar Mass) are more massive than what an evolutionary model predicts based on the age and luminosities. We consider that the discrepancy in mass comparison can be attributed to an age uncertainty; the system is likely older than stars in Columba, and effects that are not implemented in classical models such as accretion history and magnetic activity are not preferred to explain the mass discrepancy. We also discuss the performance of the evolutionary model by compiling similar low-mass objects in the evolutionary state based on the literature. Consequently, it is suggested that the current model on average reproduces the mass of resolved low-mass binaries without any signicant offsets.

Beschreibung: We present SCExAO/CHARIS high-contrast imaging/JHK integral eld spectroscopy of And b, a directly imaged low-mass companion orbiting a nearby B9V star. We detect And b at a high signal-to-noise ratio and extract high-precision spectrophotometry using a new forward-modeling algorithm for (A-)LOCI complementary to KLIP-FM developed by Pueyo et al. And bs spectrum best resembles that of a low-gravity L0L1 dwarf (L0L1). Its spectrum and luminosity are very well matched by 2MASS J0141-4633 and several other 12.515 M(sub J) free-oating members of the 40 Myr old TucHor Association, consistent with a system age derived from recent interferometric results for the primary, a companion mass at/near the deuterium-burning limit (13(sup +12, sub -2) M(sub J)), and a companion-to-primary mass ratio characteristic of other directly imaged planets (q 0.005(sup +0.005, sub -0.001)). We did not unambiguously identify additional, more closely orbiting companions brighter and more massive than And b down to 0".3 (15 au). SCExAO/CHARIS and complementary Keck/NIRC2 astrometric points reveal clockwise orbital motion. Modeling points toward a likely eccentric orbit: a subset of acceptable orbits include those that are aligned with the stars rotation axis. However, And bs semimajor axis is plausibly larger than 55 au and in a region where disk instability could form massive companions. Deeper high-contrast imaging of And and low-resolution spectroscopy from extreme adaptive optics systems such as SCExAO/CHARIS and higher-resolution spectroscopy from Keck/OSIRIS or, later, IRIS on the Thirty Meter Telescope could help to clarify And bs chemistry and whether its spectrum provides an insight into its formation environment.

Beschreibung: This study focuses on responses of mesospheric water vapor (H2O) to the solar cycle flux at Lyman- wavelength and to wave forcings according to the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The zonal-averaged responses are for latitudes from 60S to 60N and pressure-altitudes from 0.01 to 1.0 hPa, as obtained by multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses of time series of H2O from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) for July 1992 to November 2005. The solar responses change from strong negative H2O values in the upper mesosphere to very weak, positive values in the tropical lower mesosphere. Those response profiles at the low latitudes agree reasonably with published results for H2O from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). The distribution of seasonal H2O amplitudes corresponds well with that for temperature and is in accord with the seasonal net circulation. In general, the responses of H2O to MEI are anti-correlated with those of temperature. H2O responses to MEI are negative in the upper mesosphere and largest in the northern hemisphere; responses in the lower mesosphere are more symmetric with latitude. The H2O trends from MLR for the lower mesosphere agree with those reported from time series of microwave observations at two ground-based network stations.

Beschreibung: A paradoxical negative greenhouse effect has been found over the Antarctic Plateau, indicating that greenhouse gases enhance energy loss to space. Using 13 years of NASA satellite observations, we verify the existence of the negative greenhouse effect and find that the magnitude and sign of the effect varies seasonally and spectrally. A previous explanation attributes this effect solely to stratospheric CO2; however, we surprisingly find that the negative greenhouse effect is predominantly caused by tropospheric water vapor. A recently developed principle-based concept is used to provide a complete account of the Antarctic Plateaus negative greenhouse effect indicating that it is controlled by the vertical variation of temperature and greenhouse gas absorption. Our findings indicate that unique climatological conditions over the Antarctic Plateaua strong surface-based temperature inversion and scarcity of free tropospheric water vaporcause the negative greenhouse effect.

Beschreibung: We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion caused by anthropogenic stratospheric chlorine and bromine. We consider a total of 155 simulations from 20 models, including a range of sensitivity studies which examine the impact of climate change on ozone recovery. For the control simulations (unconstrained by nudging towards analysed meteorology) there is a large spread (+/-20 DU in the global average) in the predictions of the absolute ozone column. Therefore, the model results need to be adjusted for biases against historical data. Also, the interannual variability in the model results need to be smoothed in order to provide a reasonably narrow estimate of the range of ozone return dates. Consistent with previous studies, but here for a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 6.0, these new 10 CCMI simulations project that global total column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2049 (with a 1- uncertainty of 2043-2055). At Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values in 2045 (2039-2050), and at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in 2032 (2020-2044). In the Polar Regions, the return dates are 2060 (2055-2066) in the Antarctic in October and 2034 (2025-2043) in the Arctic in March. The earlier return dates in the NH reflect the larger sensitivity to dynamical changes. Our estimates of return dates are later than those presented in the 2014 Ozone Assessment by approximately 5-17 years, depending on the region, with the previous best estimates often falling outside of our uncertainty range. In the tropics only around half the models predict a return of ozone to 1980 values, at around 2040, while the other half do not reach the 1980 value. All models show a negative trend in tropical total column ozone towards the end of the 21st century. The CCMI models generally agree in their simulation of the time evolution of stratospheric chlorine and bromine, which are the main drivers of ozone loss and recovery. However, there are a few outliers which show that the multi-model mean results for ozone recovery are not as tightly constrained as possible. Throughout the stratosphere the spread of ozone return dates to 1980 values between models tends to correlate with the spread of the return of inorganic chlorine to 1980 values. In the upper stratosphere, greenhouse gas-induced cooling speeds up the return by about 10-20 years. In the lower stratosphere, and for the column, there is a more direct link in the timing of the return dates of ozone and chlorine, especially for the large Antarctic depletion. Comparisons of total column ozone between the models is affected by different predictions of the evolution of tropospheric ozone within the same scenario, presumably due to differing treatment of tropospheric chemistry. Therefore, for many scenarios, clear conclusions can only be drawn for stratospheric ozone columns rather than the total column. As noted by previous studies, the timing of ozone recovery is affected by the evolution of N2O and CH4. However, quantifying the effect in the simulations analysed here is limited by the few realisations available for these experiments compared to internal model variability. The large increase in N2O given in RCP 6.0 extends the ozone return globally by ~15 years relative to N2O fixed at 1960 abundances, mainly because it allows tropical column ozone to be depleted. The effect in extratropical latitudes is much smaller. The large increase in CH4 given in the RCP 8.5 scenario compared to RCP 6.0 also lengthens ozone return by ~15 years, again mainly through its impact in the tropics. Overall, our estimates of ozone return dates are uncertain due to both uncertainties in future scenarios, in particular of greenhouse gases, and uncertainties in models. The scenario uncertainty is small in the short term but increases with time, and becomes large by the end of the century. There are still some model-model differences related to well-known processes which affect ozone recovery. Efforts need to continue to ensure that models used for assessment purposes accurately represent stratospheric chemistry and the prescribed scenarios of ozone-depleting substances, and only those models are used to calculate return dates. For future assessments of single forcing or combined effects of CO2, CH4, and N2O on the stratospheric column ozone return dates, this work suggests that is more important to have multi-member (at least 3) ensembles for each scenario from every established participating model, rather than a large number of individual models.

Beschreibung: Some aerosols absorb solar radiation, altering cloud properties, atmospheric stability and circulation dynamics, and the water cycle. Here we review recent progress towards global and regional constraints on aerosol absorption from observations and modeling, considering physical properties and combined approaches crucial for understanding the total (natural and anthropogenic) influences of aerosols on the climate. We emphasize developments in black carbon absorption alteration due to coating and ageing, brown carbon characterization, dust composition, absorbing aerosol above cloud, source modeling and size distributions, and validation of high-resolution modeling against a range of observations. Both observations and modeling of total aerosol absorption, absorbing aerosol optical depths and single scattering albedo, as well as the vertical distribution of atmospheric absorption, still suffer from uncertainties and unknowns significant for climate applications. We offer a roadmap of developments needed to bring the field substantially forward.

Beschreibung: Recent studies have found that flight through deep convective storms and ingestion of high mass concentrations of ice crystals, also known as high ice water content (HIWC), into aircraft engines can adversely impact aircraft engine performance. These aircraft engine icing events caused by HIWC have been documented during flight in weak reflectivity regions near convective updraft regions that do not appear threatening in onboard weather radar data. Three airborne field campaigns were conducted in 2014 and 2015 to better understand how HIWC is distributed in deep convection, both as a function of altitude and proximity to convective updraft regions, and to facilitate development of new methods for detecting HIWC conditions, in addition to many other research and regulatory goals. This paper describes a prototype method for detecting HIWC conditions using geostationary (GEO) satellite imager data coupled with in situ total water content (TWC) observations collected during the flight campaigns. Three satellite-derived parameters were determined to be most useful for determining HIWC probability: 1) the horizontal proximity of the aircraft to the nearest overshooting convective updraft or textured anvil cloud, 2) tropopause-relative infrared brightness temperature, and 3) daytime-only cloud optical depth. Statistical fits between collocated TWC and GEO satellite parameters were used to determine the membership functions for the fuzzy logic derivation of HIWC probability. The products were demonstrated using data from several campaign flights and validated using a subset of the satellite-aircraft collocation database. The daytime HIWC probability was found to agree quite well with TWC time trends and identified extreme TWC events with high probability. Discrimination of HIWC was more challenging at night with IR only information. The products show the greatest capability for discriminating TWC 0.5 g m(exp -3). Product validation remains challenging due to vertical TWC uncertainties and the typically coarse spatio-temporal resolution of the GEO data.

Beschreibung: Unusually deep wintertime cirrus clouds at altitudes exceeding 13.0 km above mean sea level (AMSL) were observed at Fairbanks, Alaska (64.86 N, 147.85 W, 0.300 km AMSL) over a twelve hour period, beginning near 1200 UTC 1 January 2017. Such elevated cirrus cloud heights are far more typical of warmer latitudes, and in many instances associated with convective outflow, as opposed to early winter over the sub-Arctic on a day featuring barely four hours of local sunlight. In any other context, they could have been confused for polar stratospheric clouds, which are a more common regional/seasonal occurrence at elevated heights. The mechanics of this unique event are documented, including the thermodynamic and synoptic environments that nurtured and sustained cloud formation. The impact of an unusually deep and broad anticyclone over the wintertime Alaskan sub-Arctic is described. Comparisons with climatological datasets illustrate how unusual these events are regionally and seasonally. The event proves a relatively uncharacteristic confluence of circulatory and dynamic features over the wintertime Alaskan sub-Arctic. Our goal is to document the occurrence of this event within the context of a growing understanding for how cirrus cloud incidence and their physical characteristics vary globally. Cirrus clouds are unique within the earth-atmosphere system. Formed by the freezing of submicron haze particles in the upper troposphere, they are the last primary cloud mechanism contributing to the large scale exchange of the terrestrial water cycle. Accordingly, cirrus clouds are observed globally at all times of the year, exhibiting an instantaneous global occurrence rate near 40%. Radiatively, however, they are even more distinct. During daylight hours, cirrus are the only cloud genus that can induce either positive or negative top-of-the-atmosphere forcing (i.e., heating or cooling; all other clouds induce a negative sunlit cooling effect). Though diffuse compared with low-level liquid water clouds, their significance radiatively and thus within climate, is borne out of their overwhelming relative occurrence rate. This emerging recognition makes understanding cirrus cloud occurrence and physical cloud properties an innovative and exciting element of current climate study. The observations described here contribute to this knowledge, and the apparent potential for anomalous wintertime radiative characteristics exhibited along sub-Arctic latitudes.

Beschreibung: Pervasive cirrus clouds in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) play an important role in determining the composition of stratospheric air through dehydration of tropospheric air entering the stratosphere. This dehydration affects Earth's energy budget and climate, yet uncertainties remain regarding the microphysical processes that govern TTL cirrus. TTL cirrus were sampled with the NASA Global Hawk UAV for over 30 hr in the Western Pacific in 2014 during the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment. In situ measurements by a Fast Cloud Droplet Probe and Hawkeye probe (combination Fast Cloud Droplet Probe, TwoDimensional Stereo optical array probe, and Cloud Particle Imager) provided particle concentrations and sizing between 1 and 1,280m diameter and high resolution images for habit identification. We present the variability in ice concentrations, size distributions, and habits as functions of temperature, altitude, and time since convective influence. Observed ice particles were predominantly small and quasispheroidal in shape, with the percentage of quasispheroids increasing with decreasing temperature. In comparison to the large fraction of the population consisting of quasispheroids, faceted habits (columns, plates, rosettes, and budding rosettes) constituted a smaller percentage of the overall population and exhibited the opposite correlation with temperature. The trend of higher percentages of faceted crystals occurring at warmer temperatures may be due to diffusional growth or aggregation as particles descend through cloud, and/or the more rapid diffusional growth rate at warmer temperatures. Sampling was typically well away from deep convection, however, and very few aggregates were observed, so the trend of higher percentages of faceted habits is likely attributable to diffusional growth.

Beschreibung: The photon-scattering winds of M giants absorb parts of the chromospheric emission lines and produce self-reversed spectral features in high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/GHRS spectra. These spectra provide an opportunity to assess fundamental parameters of the wind, including flow and turbulent velocities, the optical depth of the wind above the region of photon creation, and the stars mass-loss rate. This paper is the last paper in the series GHRS Observations of Cool, Low-Gravity Stars; the last several have compared empirical measurements of spectral emission lines with models of the winds and mass loss of K giants and supergiants. We have used the Sobolev with Exact Integration radiative transfer code, along with simple models of the outer atmosphere and wind, to determine and compare the wind characteristics of the two M-giant stars, gamma Cru (M3.5III) and mu Gem (M3IIIab), with previously derived values for low-gravity K-stars. The analysis specifies the wind parameters and calculates line profiles for the Mg II resonance lines, in addition to a range of unblended Fe II lines. Our line sample covers a large range of wind opacities and, therefore, probes a range of heights in the atmosphere. Our results show that mu Gem has a slower and more turbulent wind than gamma Cru. Also, mu Gem has a weaker chromosphere, in terms of surface flux, with respect to gamma Cru. This suggests that mu Gem is more evolved than gamma Cru. Comparing the two M giants in this work with previously studied K-giant and supergiant stars (alpha Tau, gamma Dra, and lambda Vel) reveals that the M giants have slower winds than the earlier giants, but exhibit higher mass-loss rates. Our results are interpreted in the context of the winds being driven by Alfvn waves.

Beschreibung: The HST (Hubble Space Telescope) Treasury Program Advanced Spectral Library Project: Cool Stars was designed to collect representative, high-quality ultraviolet spectra of eight evolved F-M type cool stars. The Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) echelle spectra of these objects enable investigations of a broad range of topics, including stellar and interstellar astrophysics. This paper provides a guide to the spectra of the two evolved M stars, the M2 Iab super giant alpha Ori and the M3.4 giant gamma Cru, with comparisons to the prototypical K1.5 giant alpha Boo. It includes identifications of the significant atomic and molecular emission and absorption features and discusses the character of the photospheric and chromospheric continua and line spectra. The fluorescent processes responsible for a large portion of the emission-line spectrum, the characteristics of the stellar winds, and the available diagnostics for hot and cool plasmas are also summarized. This analysis will facilitate the future study of the spectra, outer atmospheres, and winds, not only of these objects but of numerous other cool, low-gravity stars, for years to come.

Beschreibung: The Hunt for Observable Signatures of Terrestrial Systems survey searches for dust near the habitable zones (HZs) around nearby, bright main-sequence stars. We use nulling interferometry in the N band to suppress the bright stellar light and to probe for low levels of HZ dust around the 30 stars observed so far. Our overall detection rate is 18%, including four new detections, among which are the first three around Sun-like stars and the first two around stars without any previously known circumstellar dust. The inferred occurrence rates are comparable for early-type and Sun-like stars, but decrease from 60(sup +16)(sub -21)% for stars with previously detected cold dust to 8(sup +10)(sub -3)% for stars without such excess, confirming earlier results at higher sensitivity. For completed observations on individual stars, our sensitivity is five to ten times better than previous results. Assuming a lognormal excess luminosity function, we put upper limits on the median HZ dust level of 13 zodis (95% confidence) for a sample of stars without cold dust and of 26 zodis when focusing on Sun-like stars without cold dust. However, our data suggest that a more complex luminosity function may be more appropriate. For stars without detectable Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) excess, our upper limits are almost reduced by a factor of two, demonstrating the strength of LBTI target vetting for future exo-Earth imaging missions. Our statistics are limited so far, and extending the survey is critical to informing the design of future exo-Earth imaging surveys.

Beschreibung: Data from hyperspectral infrared sounders are routinely ingested worldwide by National Weather Centers (NWCs). The cloud-free fraction of this data is used for initializing forecasts which include profiles of temperature, water vapor, water cloud and ice cloud profiles on a global grid. Although the data from these sounders are sensitive to the vertical distribution of ice and liquid water in clouds, this information is not fully utilized. In the future, this information could be used for validating clouds in NWC models and for initializing forecasts. We evaluate how well the calculated radiances from hyperspectral Radiative Transfer Models (RTMs) compare to cloudy radiances observed by AIRS and to one another. Vertical profiles of the clouds, temperature and water vapor from ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting) were used as input for the RTMs. For non-frozen ocean day and night data, the histograms derived from the calculations by several RTMs at 900 cm(exp -1)have a better than 0.95 correlation with the histogram derived from the AIRS observations, with a bias relative to AIRS of typically less than 2 K. Differences in the cloud physics and cloud overlap assumptions result in little bias between the RTMs, but the standard deviation of the differences ranges from 6 to 12 K. Results at 2616 cm(exp -1) at night are reasonably consistent with results at 900 cm(exp -1). Except for RTMs which use full scattering calculations, the bias and histogram correlations at 2616 cm(exp -1) are inferior to those at 900 cm(exp -1) for daytime calculations.

Beschreibung: Context. Debris disks are the intrinsic by-products of the star and planet formation processes. Most likely due to instrumental limitations and their natural faintness, little is known about debris disks around low mass stars, especially when it comes to spatially resolved observations. Aims. We present new VLT/SPHERE IRDIS dual-polarization imaging (DPI) observations in which we detect the dust ring around the M2 spectral type star TWA 7. Combined with additional angular differential imaging observations we aim at a fine characterization of the debris disk and setting constraints on the presence of low-mass planets. Methods. We modeled the SPHERE DPI observations and constrain the location of the small dust grains, as well as the spectral energy distribution of the debris disk, using the results inferred from the observations, and performed simple N-body simulations. Results. We find that the dust density distribution peaks at ~0.72 (25 au), with a very shallow outer power-law slope, and that the disk has an inclination of ~13 with a position angle of ~91 east of north. We also report low signal-to-noise ratio detections of an outer belt at a distance of ~1.5 (~52 au) from the star, of a spiral arm in the southern side of the star, and of a possible dusty clump at 0.11. These findings seem to persist over timescales of at least a year. Using the intensity images, we do not detect any planets in the close vicinity of the star, but the sensitivity reaches Jovian planet mass upper limits. We find that the SED is best reproduced with an inner disk at ~0.2 (~7 au) and another belt at 0.72 (25 au). Conclusions. We report the detections of several unexpected features in the disk around TWA 7. A yet undetected 100 Solar Mass planet with a semi-major axis at 2030 au could possibly explain the outer belt as well as the spiral arm. We conclude that stellar winds are unlikely to be responsible for the spiral arm.

Beschreibung: We present H- and K s-bands observations of the LkH 330 disk with a multi-band detection of the large gap and spiral-like structures. The morphology of the outer disk (r ~ 0."3) at PA = 045 and PA = 180290 is likely density wave-induced spirals, and comparison between our observational results and simulations suggests a planet formation. We have also investigated the azimuthal profiles at the ring and the outer-disk regions as well as radial profiles in the directions of the spiral-like structures and semimajor axis. Azimuthal analysis shows a large variety in wavelength and implies that the disk has non-axisymmetric dust distributions. The radial profiles in the major-axis direction (PA = 271) suggest that the outer region (r 0."25) may be influenced by shadows of the inner region of the disk. The spiral-like directions (PA = 10 and 230) show different radial profiles, which suggests that the surfaces of the spiral-like structures are highly flared and/or have different dust properties. Finally, a color map of the disk shows a lack of an outer eastern region in the H-band disk, which may hint at the presence of an inner object that casts a directional shadow onto the disk.

Beschreibung: We present new, near-infrared (1.12.4 m) high-contrast imaging of the bright debris disk surrounding HIP 79977 with the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics system (SCExAO) coupled with the CHARIS integral eld spectrograph. SCExAO/CHARIS resolves the disk down to smaller angular separations of (0".11; r 14 au) and at a higher signicance than previously achieved at the same wavelengths. The disk exhibits a marginally signicant eastwest brightness asymmetry in H band that requires conrmation. Geometrical modeling suggests a nearly edge-on disk viewed at a position angle of 114.6 east of north. The disk is best-t by scattered-light models assuming strongly forward-scattering grains (g 0.50.65) conned to a torus with a peak density at r0 5375 au. We nd that a shallow outer density power law of (sub out) = 1 to 3 and are index of = 1 are preferred. Other disk parameters (e.g., inner density power law and vertical scale height) are more poorly constrained. The disk has a slightly blue intrinsic color and its prole is broadly consistent with predictions from birth ring models applied to other debris disks. While HIP 79977s disk appears to be more strongly forward- scattering than most resolved disks surrounding 530 Myr old stars, this difference may be due to observational biases favoring forward-scattering models for inclined disks versus lower inclination, ostensibly neutral-scattering disks like HR 4796As. Deeper, higher signal-to-noise SCExAO/CHARIS data can better constrain the disks dust composition.

Beschreibung: The calorimeter array of the JAXA Astro-H (renamed Hitomi) soft x-ray spectrometer (SXS) was designed to provide unprecedented spectral resolution of spatially extended cosmic x-ray sources and of all cosmic x-ray sources in the Fe-K band around 6 keV. The properties that made the SXS array a powerful x-ray spectrometer also made it sensitive to photons from the entire electromagnetic band as well as particles. If characterized as a bolometer, it would have had a noise equivalent power of 〈4 10(exp 18) W/((Hz)(exp 0.5)). Thus, it was imperative to shield the detector from thermal radiation from the instrument and optical and UV photons from the sky. In addition, it was necessary to shield the coldest stages of the instrument from the thermal radiation emanating from the warmer stages. These needs were addressed by a series of five thin-film radiation-blocking filters, anchored to the nested temperature stages, that blocked long-wavelength radiation while minimizing x-ray attenuation. The aperture assembly was a system of barriers, baffles, filter carriers, and filter mounts that supported the filters and inhibited their potential contamination. The three outer filters also had been equipped with thermometers and heaters for decontamination. We present the requirements, design, implementation, and performance of the SXS aperture assembly and blocking filters.

Beschreibung: X-ray astronomy critically depends on X-ray optics. The capability of an X-ray telescope is largelydetermined by the point-spread function (PSF) and the photon-collection area of its mirrors, the same astelescopes in other wavelength bands. Since an X-ray telescope must be operated above the atmosphere inspace and that X-rays reflect only at grazing incidence, X-ray mirrors must be both lightweight and thin, bothof which add significant technical and engineering challenge to making an X-ray telescope. In this paper wereport our effort at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) of developing an approach to making an Xraymirror assembly that can be significantly better than the mirror assembly currently flying on the ChandraX-ray Observatory in each of the three aspects: PSF, effective area per unit mass, and production cost per uniteffective area. Our approach is based on the precision polishing of mono-crystalline silicon to fabricate thinand lightweight X-ray mirrors of the highest figure quality and micro-roughness, therefore, having thepotential of achieving diffraction-limited X-ray optics. When successfully developed, this approach will makeimplementable in the 2020s and 2030s many X-ray astronomical missions that are currently on the drawingboard, including sounding rocket flights such as OGRE, Explorer class missions such as STAR-X andFORCE, Probe class missions such as AXIS, TAP, and HEX-P, as well as large missions such as Lynx.

Beschreibung: Moon Burst Energetics All-sky Monitor (MoonBEAM) is a CubeSat concept of deploying gamma-ray detectors in cislunar space to increase gamma-ray burst detections and improve localization precision with the timing triangulation technique. A gamma-ray instrument in cislunar orbit will have greatly reduced sky blockage compared to instruments in low Earth orbit. Working in conjunction with another instrument in low Earth orbit, MoonBEAM can also help constrain the arrival direction of the wavefront to an annulus on the sky by utilizing the light arrival times between the different orbits. This method has been demonstrated by the Interplanetary Gamma- Ray Burst Timing Network. However, delays in data downlink for instruments outside the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite network prevent rapid follow-up observations. We present here a gamma-ray CubeSat concept in Earth-Moon L3 halo orbit that is capable of faster response and provide a timing baseline for localization improvement. Such an instrument would aid in the gravitational wave follow-up observations in other wavelengths to identify the gamma-ray burst afterglow and kilonova emission. Reducing the region of interest makes identifying afterglows much faster, allowing for rapid on-source observations and monitoring of the rise and decay times. It will also prevent source confusion between two transients and enable robust association. A gamma-ray detection could also increase the confidence of a simultaneous but marginal gravitational wave signal, extending the detection horizon. MoonBEAM is a 12U CubeSat concept of deploying gamma-ray detectors in cislunar space to increase gamma-ray burst detections and improve localization precision with the timing triangulation technique. Such an instrument would probe the extreme processes in cosmic collision of compact objects and facilitate multi-messenger time-domain astronomy to explore the end of stellar life cycles and black hole formations.

Beschreibung: The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an experimental C-band passive microwave radiometer designed to map the horizontal structure of surface wind speed fields in hurricanes. New data processing and customized retrieval approaches were developed after the 2015 Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment, which featured flights over Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, Marty, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika. These new approaches produced maps of surface wind speed that looked more realistic than those from previous campaigns. Dropsondes from the High Definition Sounding System (HDSS) that was flown with HIRAD on a WB-57 high altitude aircraft in TCI were used to assess the quality of the HIRAD wind speed retrievals. The root mean square difference between HIRAD-retrieved surface wind speeds and dropsonde-estimated surface wind speeds was 6.0 meters per second. The largest differences between HIRAD and dropsonde winds were from data points where storm motion during dropsonde descent compromised the validity of the comparisons. Accounting for this and for uncertainty in the dropsonde measurements themselves, we estimate the root mean square error for the HIRAD retrievals as around 4.7 meters per second. Prior to the 2015 TCI experiment, HIRAD had previously flown on the WB-57 for missions across Hurricanes Gonzalo (2014), Earl (2010), and Karl (2010). Configuration of the instrument was not identical to the 2015 flights, but the methods devised after the 2015 flights may be applied to that previous data in an attempt to improve retrievals from those cases.

Beschreibung: Estimating tropical cyclone intensity by just using satellite image is a challenging problem. With successful application of the Dvorak technique for more than 30 years along with some modifications and improvements, it is still used worldwide for tropical cyclone intensity estimation. A number of semi-automated techniques have been derived using the original Dvorak technique. However, these techniques suffer from subjective bias as evident from the most recent estimations on October 10, 2017 at 1500 UTC for Tropical Storm Ophelia: The Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from T2.3/33 kt (Tropical Cyclone Number 2.3/33 knots) from UW-CIMSS (University of Wisconsin-Madison - Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB (the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch) to T4.0/65 kt from SAB (NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch). In this particular case, two human experts at TAFB and SAB differed by 20 knots in their Dvorak analyses, and the automated version at the University of Wisconsin was 12 knots lower than either of them. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) estimates about 10-20 percent uncertainty in its post analysis when only satellite based estimates are available. The success of the Dvorak technique proves that spatial patterns in infrared (IR) imagery strongly relate to tropical cyclone intensity. This study aims to utilize deep learning, the current state of the art in pattern recognition and image recognition, to address the need for an automated and objective tropical cyclone intensity estimation. Deep learning is a multi-layer neural network consisting of several layers of simple computational units. It learns discriminative features without relying on a human expert to identify which features are important. Our study mainly focuses on convolutional neural network (CNN), a deep learning algorithm, to develop an objective tropical cyclone intensity estimation. CNN is a supervised learning algorithm requiring a large number of training data. Since the archives of intensity data and tropical cyclone centric satellite images is openly available for use, the training data is easily created by combining the two. Results, case studies, prototypes, and advantages of this approach will be discussed.

Beschreibung: Deep convective transport of gaseous precursors to ozone (O3) and aerosols to the upper troposphere is affected by liquid- and mixed-phase scavenging, entrainment of free tropospheric air, and aqueous chemistry. The contributions of these processes are examined using aircraft measurements obtained in storm inflow and outflow during the 2012 Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment combined with high resolution (dx 〈= 3 km) WRF-Chem simulations of a severe storm, an airmass storm, and a mesoscale convective system (MCS). The simulation results for the MCS suggest that formaldehyde (CH2O) is not retained in ice when cloud water freezes, in agreement with previous studies of the severe storm. By analyzing WRF-Chem trajectories, the effects of scavenging, entrainment, and aqueous chemistry on outflow mixing ratios of CH2O, methyl hydroperoxide (CH3OOH), and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) are quantified. Liquid-phase microphysical scavenging was the dominant process reducing CH2O and H2O2 outflow mixing ratios in all three storms. Aqueous chemistry did not significantly affect outflow mixing ratios of all three species. In the severe storm and MCS, the higher than expected reductions in CH3OOH mixing ratios in the storm cores were primarily due to entrainment of low background CH3OOH. In the airmass storm, lower CH3OOH and H2O2 scavenging efficiencies (SEs) than in the MCS were partly due to entrainment of higher background CH3OOH and H2O2. Overestimated rain and hail production in WRF-Chem reduces the confidence in ice retention fraction values determined for the peroxides and CH2O.

Beschreibung: No abstract available

Beschreibung: Time-resolved observations of brown dwarfs' rotational modulations provide powerful insights into the properties of condensate clouds in ultra-cool atmospheres. Multi-wavelength light curves reveal cloud vertical structures, condensate particle sizes, and cloud morphology, which directly constrain condensate cloud and atmospheric circulation models. We report results from Hubble Space Telescope/Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) near-infrared G141 taken in six consecutive orbits observations of HNPeg B, an L/T transition brown dwarf companion to a G0V type star. The best-fit sine wave to the 1.1 to 1.7 micron broadband light curve has the amplitude of and period of hour. The modulation amplitude has no detectable wavelength dependence except in the 1.4 micron water absorption band, indicating that the characteristic condensate particle sizes are large (greater than 1 micron). We detect significantly (4.4 sigma) lower modulation amplitude in the 1.4 micron water absorption band, and find that HN Peg B's spectral modulation resembles those of early T type brown dwarfs. We also describe a new empirical interpolation method to remove spectral contamination from the bright host star. This method may be applied in other high-contrast time-resolved observations with WFC3.

Beschreibung: No abstract available

Beschreibung: As upper stratospheric ozone appears to be recovering as a result of decreasing chlorine loading following the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and in agreement with model projections, several recent studies report an apparent decline of ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere in the last two decades, particularly in the extratropics. Our previous work as well as at least two other studies provide evidence that this decline results from transport changes rather than an intensification of chemical depletion. It remains unclear whether these changes represent long-term internal variability or are a consequence of a climate forcing. Here we perform free-running ensembles of the recent past (1980-2016) using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) at the cubed sphere C180 (approximately half degree) resolution. Two suites of 10-member ensembles are performed, one in which observed sea surface temperature (SSTs) are fully prescribed, and the other in which the linear SST trend over the recent past is removed so as to only retain internal variability. We evaluate the trends in both ozone as well as two idealized tracers with prescribed uniform loss that are used to isolate the role of transport from chemistry and emissions. Probability-distribution-functions of the trends in both ozone and idealized tracers are compared among ensemble members and with observed trends in order to evaluate the likelihood of recent observed declines in lower stratospheric ozone, relative to large internal variability. Moreover, comparisons among simulations with and without imposed SST trends indicate the extent to which dynamically-driven ozone trends reflect forced trends or internal variability in lower stratospheric dynamics.

Beschreibung: No abstract available

Beschreibung: This work presents a detailed current performance analysis for the telescope, pointing, and coronagraph com- ponent subsystems of the Segmented Aperture Interferometric Nulling Testbed (SAINT). The project pairs an active segmented mirror with the Visible Nulling Coronagraph (VNC) towards demonstrating capabilities for the future space observatories needed to directly detect and characterize Earth-sized worlds around nearby stars. We describe approaches to optimize subsystem wavefront sensing and control parameters, summarizing relevant scal- ing relations between these parameters, residual errors, and observed contrast measurements. Preliminary results from diagnostic testing under various control states are presented along with intermediate contrast measurements towards demonstrating the full system.

Beschreibung: The Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM) bin scheme and the Thompson bulk scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are compared to assess biases often found in simulated brightness temperature and radar reflectivity. Compared to our preceding study that evaluated several bulk schemes in the WRF model, the current study obtains a reduction of the bias from excessive microwave scattering by precipitation ice for both HUCM bin and the Thompson bulk microphysics schemes for a topographic winter precipitation event associated with an atmospheric river. The Thompson particle size distributions (PSDs) and snow particle density assumption are implemented into the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (GSDSU) and have produced improvements. Despite the greater sophistication of the bin scheme in representing cloud and precipitation processes, the simulation with the Thompson bulk scheme is generally in better agreement with observations for this winter event. The explicitly resolved hydrometeor PSDs in HUCM enable analysis of mass spectra variations in response to changes in microphysics assumptions. Two HUCM sensitivity runs tested the enhancement of snow particle breakup and the influence of ice nuclei (IN) concentration. Higher IN concentration resulted in increased snow mass and broadened the spectrum toward smallsize particles. Modified snow mass spectra and resultant changes in graupel contributed to modifications in scattering and reflectivity simulations. The article demonstrates the bin scheme's capability to provide a new means to improve our understanding of uncertainties in mesoscale weather models and radiative transfer models.

Beschreibung: No abstract available

Beschreibung: No abstract available

Beschreibung: Here we present preliminary results from the analysis of the low cloud cover (LCC) and cloud radiative effect (CRE) interannual changes in response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcings in two GISS climate models, and 12 other climate models. We further classify them as a function of their ability to reproduce the vertical structure of the cloud response to SST change against 10 years of CALIPSO observations: the constrained models, which match the observation constraint, and the unconstrained models. The constrained models replicate the observed interannual LCC change particularly well (LCC(sub con)=-3.49 1.01 %/K vs. LCC(sub obs)=-3.59 0.28 %/K) as opposed to the unconstrained models, which largely underestimate it (LCC(sub unc) = -1.32 1.28 %/K). As a result, the amount of short-wave warming simulated by the constrained models (CRE(sub con)=2.60 1.13 W/m2/K) is in better agreement with the observations (CRE(sub obs)=3.05 0.28 W/m2/K) than the unconstrained models (CRE(sub con)=0.87 2.63 W/m2/K). Depending on the type of low cloud, the observed relationship between cloud/radiation and surface temperature varies. Over the stratocumulus regions, increasing SSTs generate higher cloud top height along with a large decrease of the cloud fraction below as opposed to a slight decrease of the cloud fraction at each level over the trade cumulus regions. Our results suggest that the models must generate sustainable stratocumulus decks and moist processes in the planetary boundary layer to reproduce these observed features. Future work will focus on defining a method to objectively discriminate these cloud types that can be applied consistently in both the observations and the models.

Beschreibung: A 10-yr geostationary (GEO) overshooting cloud-top (OT) detection database using Multifunction Transport Satellite (MTSAT) Japanese Advanced Meteorological Imager (JAMI) observations has been developed over the Australian region. GEO satellite imagers collect spatially and temporally detailed observations of deep convection, providing insight into the development and evolution of hazardous storms, particularly where surface observations of hazardous storms and deep convection are sparse and ground-based radar or lightning sensor networks are limited. Hazardous storms often produce one or more OTs that indicate the location of strong updrafts where weather hazards are typically concentrated, which can cause substantial impacts on the ground such as hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and lightning and to aviation such as turbulence and in-flight icing. The 10-yr OT database produced using an automated OT detection algorithm is demonstrated for analysis of storm frequency, diurnally, spatially, and seasonally relative to known features such as the Australian monsoon, expected regions of hazardous storms along the southeastern coastal regions of southern Queensland and New South Wales, and the preferential extratropical cyclone track along the Indian Ocean and southern Australian coast. A filter based on atmospheric instability, deep-layer wind shear, and freezing level was used to identify OTs that could have produced hail. The filtered OT database is used to generate a hail frequency estimate that identifies a region extending from north of Brisbane to Sydney and the GoldfieldsEsperance region of eastern Western Australia as the most hail-prone regions.

Beschreibung: The gamma-ray sky from several hundred keV to a hundred MeV has remained largely unexplored due to the challenging nature of detecting gamma rays in this regime. At lower energies, Compton scattering is the dominant interaction process whereas at higher energies pair production dominates, with a crossover at a few MeV. Thus, an instrument designed to work in this energy range must be optimized for both Compton and pair-production events. AMEGO, the All-sky Medium Energy Gamma-ray Observatory, a Probe-class mission in consideration for the 2020 decadal survey, is designed to operate at energies from 200 keV to 〉 10 GeV with over an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity and with superior angular and energy resolution compared to previous instruments. AMEGO comprises four major subsystems: a plastic anticoincidence detector for rejecting cosmic-ray events, a silicon tracker for tracking pair-production products and tracking and measuring the energies of Compton-scattered electrons, a cadmium-zinc-telluride (CZT) calorimeter for measuring the energy and location of Compton scattered photons, and a CsI calorimeter for measuring the energy of the pair-production products at high energies. A prototype instrument, known as ComPair, is under development at NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center and the US Naval Research Laboratory. In this contribution, we provide details on the development of the silicon tracker subsystem.

Beschreibung: We describe the Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X), a probe-class mission concept that will provide an unprecedented view of the X-ray sky, performing timing and spectroscopy over both a broad energy band (0.2-30 keV) and a wide range of timescales from microseconds to years. STROBE-X comprises two narrow-field instruments and a wide field monitor. The soft or low-energy band (0.2-12 keV) is covered by an array of lightweight optics (3-m focal length) that concentrate incident photons onto small solid-state detectors with CCD-level (85-175 eV) energy resolution, 100 ns time resolution, and low background rates. This technology has been fully developed for NICER and will be scaled up to take advantage of the longer focal length of STROBE-X. The higher-energy band (2-30 keV) is covered by large-area, collimated silicon drift detectors that were developed for the European LOFT mission concept. Each instrument will provide an order of magnitude improvement in effective area over its predecessor (NICER in the soft band and RXTE in the hard band). Finally, STROBE-X offers a sensitive wide-field monitor (WFM), both to act as a trigger for pointed observations of X-ray transients and also to provide high duty-cycle, high time-resolution, and high spectral-resolution monitoring of the variable X-ray sky. The WFM will boast approximately 20 times the sensitivity of the RXTE All-Sky Monitor, enabling multi-wavelength and multi-messenger investigations with a large instantaneous field of view. This mission concept will be presented to the 2020 Decadal Survey for consideration.

Beschreibung: The atmospheric hydrostatic Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM), developed for medium-range weather prediction, provides a unique three-dimensional grid structurea quasi-uniform icosahedral horizontal grid and an adaptive quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinate. To extend the FIM framework to subseasonal time scales, an icosahedral-grid rendition of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) was developed and coupled to FIM. By sharing a common horizontal mesh, airsea fluxes between the two models are conserved locally and globally. Both models use similar adaptive hybrid vertical coordinates. Another unique aspect of the coupled model (referred to as FIMiHYCOM) is the use of the GrellFreitas scale-aware convective scheme in the atmosphere. A multiyear retrospective study is necessary to demonstrate the potential usefulness and allow for immediate bias correction of a subseasonal prediction model. In these two articles, results are shown based on a 16-yr period of hindcasts from FIMiHYCOM, which has been providing real-time forecasts out to a lead time of 4 weeks for NOAAs Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) starting July 2017. Part I provides an overview of FIMiHYCOM and compares its systematic errors at subseasonal time scales to those of NOAAs operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Part II uses bias-corrected hindcasts to assess both deterministic and probabilistic subseasonal skill of FIMiHYCOM. FIMiHYCOM has smaller biases than CFSv2 for some fields (including precipitation) and comparable biases for other fields (including sea surface temperature). FIMiHYCOM also has less drift in bias between weeks 1 and 4 than CFSv2. The unique grid structure and physics suite of FIMiHYCOM is expected to add diversity to multimodel ensemble forecasts at subseasonal time scales in SubX.

Beschreibung: Entire fields of science, most notably in astrophysics, rely on line-of-sight observations. In planetary science and heliophysics, the techniques of soft X-ray and energetic neutral atom (ENA) imaging also produce line-of-sight measurements. An important question is whether the geometry of the surface, for example the magnetopause, can be reconstructed using only line-of-sight observations from a single spacecraft. Under a broad range of conditions, the peak emission corresponds to the tangent to the boundary surface, such as the planetary surface or magnetopause, the so-called "limb brightening" phenomenon. Thus, line-of-sight observations frequently provide information concerning the tangent to the surfaces being observed. We present an algorithm to reconstruct the cross-section of the magnetopause using line-of-sight soft X-ray observations (and, in principle, ENA observations). The algorithm successfully reconstructs the cross section of the magnetopause in the orbit plane. The threedimensional magnetopause structure can be recovered from observations by a spacecraft whose orbit precesses around the magnetosphere.

Beschreibung: Future astronomy missions using x-ray transition-edge sensor (TES) microcalorimeters, such as X-IFU on Athena, will require large arrays of 1000s of pixels fabricated on a single wafer. To wire out so many pixels the current array designs have pixels with different rotational orientations. Fabrication is done in multiple layers and so, dependent on method, there is potential for spatial misalignment between layers. Because of the variation of orientation of pixels, misalignment may not impact each pixel equally. This has the potential to degrade the achievable uniformity of performance across an array. How well aligned do different layers need to be? How does sensitivity to misalignment depend on choice of pixel design?

Beschreibung: The LISA Mission proposal was selected by ESA's Science Program Committee (SPC) for the L3 Cosmic Visions launch opportunity, and is currently in a Phase A mission formulation study. An essential component of the instrument is a set of optical telescopes that make precision displacement measurements between pairs of proof masses that are flying drag-free in three separate satellites. We discuss the key requirements on the telescope, the current design, and discuss progress toward solving some of the key challenges for realizing the telescope designs.

Beschreibung: A modified dual-wavelength radar technique is described in an attempt to eliminate double solutions of DSD that the standard dual-wavelength technique faces for small-to moderate rain rates. Assessment of the methods is made from the simulated hydrometeor profiles comprised of measured DSD. Preliminary results reveal that the modified radar technique has potential to improve accuracy of DSD and rain retrieval over the standard dual-wavelength radar technique.

Beschreibung: At the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services (GES DISC), we strive to simplify data discovery and data access to our wide range of global climate data, concentrated primarily in the areas of atmospheric composition, atmospheric dynamics, global precipitation, solar irradiance, and several modeling data sets related to land surface hydrology. To help meet user needs, we will demonstrate how you can use the GES DISC knowledge-base resources (HowTo's) and we also encourage community contributions.

Beschreibung: Snowballs are transient events observed in HgCdTe detectors with a sudden increase of charge in a few pixels. They appear between consecutive reads of the detector, after which the affected pixels return to their normal behavior. The origin of the snowballs is unknown, but it was speculated that they could be the result of alpha decay of naturally radioactive contaminants in the detectors, but a cosmic ray origin cannot be ruled out. Even though previous studies predicted a low rate of occurrence of these events, and consequently, a minimal impact on science, it is interesting to investigate the cause or causes that may generate snowballs and their impact in detectors designed for future missions. We searched for the presence of snowballs in the dark current data in Euclid and Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) detectors tested in the Detector Characterization Laboratory at Goddard Space Flight Center. Our investigation shows that for Euclid and WFIRST detectors, there are snowballs that appear only one time, and others that repeat in the same spatial localization. For Euclid detectors, there is a correlation between the snowballs that repeat and bad pixels in the operational masks (pixels that do not fulfill the requirements to pass spectroscopy noise, photometry noise, quantum efficiency, and/or linearity). The rate of occurrence for a snowball event is about 0.9 snowballs/hr. in Euclid detectors (for the ones that do not have associated bad pixels in the mask), and about 0.7 snowballs/hr. in PV3 Full Array Lot WFIRST detectors.

Beschreibung: No abstract available

Beschreibung: Recap: NASA-Specific Objectives for ICE-POP: Provide real-time observational and NWP data in support of ICE-POP, participate in significant international science effort; GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) Ground Validation and NASA Weather Program -Direct/physical validation of active/passive satellite-based snowfall retrieval algorithms over coastline and mountains; melting layer interaction with terrain -Physics of snow, coupling to snow water equivalent rate and satellite remote sensor retrieval algorithm assumptions - -Size distributions, types/habit, water equivalent, profiles -NU-WRF (NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting) Model plus Observational analyses: Movement toward level IV products leverage intensive and multi-faceted NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) component -Model precipitation processes (liquid, mixed phase and frozen); Build model testing database for further active/passive remote sensing algorithm development (e.g., satellite data simulators) -"Integrated" validation of products in operational context.

Beschreibung: The Arcus mission, proposed for NASA's 2016 Astrophysics Medium Explorer (MIDEX) announcement of opportunity, will use X-ray spectroscopy to detect previously unaccounted quantities of normal matter in the Universe. The Arcus mission design uses 4:1 lunar resonance to provide a stable orbit for visibility of widely-dispersed targets, in a low background radiation environment, above the Van Allen belts for the minimum two-year science mission. Additional ad-vantages of 4:1 resonance are long term stability without maintenance maneu-vers, eclipses under 4.5 hours, perigee radius approximately 12 Re for data download, and streamlined operational cadence with approximately 1 week orbit period.

Beschreibung: An optimal estimation scheme is employed to demonstrate the utility of using multi-band radar observations for estimating supercooled liquid profiles. Qualitative comparisons with microphysical probe images show that the retrievals are capable of producing supercooled liquid consistent with in situ data. Finally, a path forward for quantifying performance and extending the study to a more robust measurement suite is given.

Beschreibung: As part of our work on nitrogen-rich ices, the IR spectra and band strengths used in a recent paper to identify and quantify radiation-induced changes in an N2+H2O ice near 15 K are examined, along with reports of (i) a chemical tracer for N2+H2O ices, (ii) a new IR feature of solid N2, and (iii) a striking 15N isotopic enrichment. Problems are found for each IR band strength used and for each of the three claims made, to the extent that none are supported by the results presented to date. In contrast, new work presented here, combined with several older investigations, strongly supports the formation of di- and triatomic nitrogen oxides in irradiated N2-rich ices. Observations and trends in the chemistry of N2-rich icy solids are described, and conclusions are drawn. A considerable amount of material from previous chemical studies of N2-rich systems, spanning more than a century, is brought together for the rst time and used to examine the chemistry of N2-rich ices in extraterrestrial environments. Needs are identied and suggestions made for future studies of N2-rich interstellar and planetary ice analogs.

Beschreibung: Recent technology advances in miniature microwave radiometers that can be hosted on very small satellites has made possible a new class of affordable constellation missions that provide very high revisit rates of tropical cyclones and other severe weather. The Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission was selected by NASA as part of the Earth Venture-Instrument (EVI-3)program and is now in development with planned launch readiness in late 2019. The overarching goal for TROPICS is to provide nearly all-weather observations of 3-D temperature and humidity, as well as cloud ice and precipitation horizontal structure, at high temporal resolution to conduct high-value science investigations of tropical cyclones (TCs). TROPICS will provide rapid-refresh microwave measurements (median refresh rate better than 60 minutes for the baseline mission) over the tropics that can be used to observe the thermodynamics of the troposphere and precipitation structure for storm systems at the mesoscale and synoptic scale over the entire storm life cycle. TROPICS will comprise a constellation of at least six CubeSats in three low-Earth orbital planes. Each CubeSat will host a high performance radiometer to provide temperature profiles using seven channels near the 118.75 GHz (gigahertz) oxygen absorption line, water vapor profiles using three channels near the 183 GHz water vapor absorption line, imagery in a single channel near 90 GHz for precipitation measurements (when combined with higher resolution water vapor channels), and a single channel at 205 GHz that is more sensitive to precipitation-sized ice particles and low-level moisture. This observing system offers an unprecedented combination of horizontal and temporal resolution in the microwave spectrum to measure environmental and inner-core conditions for TCs on a nearly global scale and is a major leap forward in the temporal resolution of several key parameters needed for assimilation into advanced data assimilation systems capable of utilizing rapid-update radiance or retrieval data. Here, we provide an overview of the mission and an update on current status,with a focus on unique characteristics of the Cubesat system, recent performance simulations on a range of observables to be provided by the constellation, and a summary of science applications.

Beschreibung: This work describes multi-site optical polarimetric observations of several radio-loud Narrow Line Seyfert 1 galaxies. This source class, and the sources in this study, were discovered to be detectable at gamma-ray energies by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) aboard the Fermi satellite. GSFC has played a key role in the development, launch, and operation of Fermi/LAT.

Beschreibung: Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME-driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid-2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME-shock arrival times, in an average sense, to within 10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of 1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of thevarious models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

Beschreibung: Abstract Increasing sea level rise will lead to more instances of nuisance flooding along the Virginia coastline in the coming decades, causing road closures and deteriorating infrastructure. These minor flood events can be caused by astronomical tides alone, in addition to internal climate variability on annual to decadal timescales. An assessment of nuisance flooding from these two effects is presented up until the year2050 for Norfolk, Virginia. The analysis of water levels indicates that nuisance flooding from tides alone in conjunction with a medium-high sea level scenario will result in flooding beginning in 2030 with frequency increasing thereafter. The addition of climate variability, by use of an empirical mode decomposition, leads to a substantial increase of flooding relative to the tides-alone analysis and shows flood events beginning as soon as 2020. High tides in the future will produce nuisance flooding without the need of other drivers such as coastal storms.

Beschreibung: The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) is developing a compact, light-weight, and low power midwave-infrared (MWIR) imager called the Compact Midwave Imaging Sensor (CMIS), under the support of the NASA Earth Science Technology Office Instrument Incubator Program. The goal of this CMIS instrument development and demonstration project is to increase the technical readiness of CMIS, a multi-spectral sensor capable of retrieving 3D winds and cloud heights 24/7, for a space mission. The CMIS instrument employs an advanced MWIR detector that requires less cooling than traditional technologies and thus permits a compact, low-power design, which enables accommodation on small spacecraft such as CubeSats. CMIS provides the critical midwave component of a multi-spectral sensor suite that includes a high-resolution Day-Night Band and a longwave infrared (LWIR) imager to provide global cloud characterization and theater weather imagery. In this presentation, an overview of the CMIS project, including the high-level sensor design, the concept of operations, and measurement capability will be presented. System performance for a variety of different scenes generated by a cloud resolving model (CRM) will also be discussed.

Beschreibung: We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from September 2011 to September 2017. All experiments assimilate satellite sea level (SL), sea surface temperature (SST), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (T(sub z), S(sub z)). Additionally various satellite, blended, and in-situ SSS products are assimilated. Using our intermediate-complexity coupled model as a transfer function, we test if more mature SSS model algorithms actually improve ENSO forecast skill. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves Nio3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation, more mature SSS model algorithms are generally improving ENSO forecasts over time, and more satellite SSS helps to extend useful forecasts.

Beschreibung: We present results of recent Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) observations of the accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar (AMXP) IGR J17062-6143 that show that it resides in a circular, ultracompact binary with a 38-minute orbital period. NICER observed the source for 26 kiloseconds over a 5.3-day span in 2017 August, and again for 14 and 11 kiloseconds in 2017 October and November, respectively. A power spectral analysis of the August exposure confirms the previous detection of pulsations at 163.656 Hertz in Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) data, and reveals phase modulation due to orbital motion of the neutron star. A coherent search for the orbital solution using the Z squared method finds a best-fitting circular orbit with a period of 2278.21 seconds (37.97 minutes), a projected semimajor axis of 0.00390 lt-s (Localization Test Statistic), and a barycentric pulsar frequency of 163.6561105 Hertz. This is currently the shortest known orbital period for an AMXP. The mass function is 9.12 times 10 (sup minus 8) solar mass, presently the smallest known for a stellar binary. The minimum donor mass ranges from approximately 0.005 to 0.007 times the solar mass for a neutron star mass from 1.2 to 2 times the solar mass. Assuming mass transfer is driven by gravitational radiation, we find donor mass and binary inclination bounds of 0.0175-0.0155 times the solar mass and 19 degrees less than i less than 27.5 degrees, where the lower and upper bounds correspond to 1.4 and 2 times the solar mass neutron stars, respectively. Folding the data accounting for the orbital modulation reveals a sinusoidal profile with fractional amplitude 2.04 plus or minus 0.11 percent (0.3-3.2 kiloelectronvolts).

Beschreibung: We present a second epoch of Chandra observations of the Type Ia Large Magellanic Cloud supernova remnant(SNR) 0509-68.7 (N103B) obtained in 2017. When combined with the earlier observations from 1999, we have a17.4 year baseline with which we can search for evidence of the remnant's expansion. Although the lack of strongpoint source detections makes absolute image alignment at the necessary accuracy impossible, we can measure thechange in the diameter and the area of the remnant, and find that it has expanded by an average velocity of 4170(2860, 5450) km s1. This supports the picture of this being a young remnant; this expansion velocity correspondsto an undecelerated age of 850 years, making the real age somewhat younger, consistent with results from lightecho studies. Previous infrared observations have revealed high densities in the western half of the remnant, likelyfrom circumstellar material, so it is probable that the real expansion velocity is lower on that side of the remnantand higher on the eastern side. A similar scenario is seen in Kepler's SNR. N103B joins the rare class ofMagellanic Cloud SNRs with measured proper motions.

Beschreibung: The Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) is an International Space Station (ISS) mission of opportunity that was selected as part of NASA's Explorer Program. It is the first NASA mission dedicated to the study of neutron stars and has been in operation since its 13 June 2017 installation on the ISS (following a 3 June launch), nearly 50 years after the discovery of neutron stars. NICER studies the energetics, dynamics and structure of neutron stars through observations in the soft X-ray band, exploring rapid brightness and spectral fluctuations with high-precision time stamping and spectroscopy of individually detected X-ray photons. Compared with its predecessor X-ray timing astrophysics mission, the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer(RXTE), which launched over two decades ago, NICER provides order-of-magnitude improvements in spectral resolution, absolute timing resolution and sensitivity.

Beschreibung: We introduce a modified version of the ASGARD code (Automated Selection and Grouping of events in A/A Regional Data). Originally written to detect and group brightenings ("events") in the AIA EUV channels, it now includes the sparsity DEM inversion method and instead detects emission measure enhancements in different temperature bins. Ultimately, the goal is to automatically determine heating and cooling rates in different coronal structures.

Beschreibung: US background ozone (O3) includes O3 produced from anthropogenic O3 precursors emitted outside of the USA, from global methane, and from any natural sources. Using a suite of sensitivity simulations in the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model, we estimate the influence from individual background sources versus US anthropogenic sources on total surface O3 over 10 continental US regions from 2004 to 2012. Evaluation with observations reveals model biases of +0-19ppb in seasonal mean maximum daily 8h average (MDA8) O3, highest in summer over the eastern USA. Simulated high-O3 events cluster too late in the season. We link these model biases to excessive regional O3 production (e.g., US anthropogenic, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), and soil NOx, emissions), or coincident missing sinks. On the 10 highest observed O3 days during summer (O3_top10obs_JJA), US anthropogenic emissions enhance O3 by 5-11ppb and by less than 2ppb in the eastern versus western USA. The O3 enhancement from BVOC emissions during summer is 1-7 ppb higher on O3_top10obs_JJA days than on average days, while intercontinental pollution is up to 2ppb higher on average versus on O3_top10obs_JJA days. During the summers of 2004-2012, monthly regional mean US background O3 MDA8 levels vary by up to 15ppb from year to year. Observed and simulated summertime total surface O3 levels on O3_top10obs_JJA days decline by 3ppb (averaged over all regions) from 2004-2006 to 2010-2012, reflecting rising US background (+2ppb) and declining US anthropogenic O3 emissions (6ppb) in the model. The model attributes interannual variability in US background O3 on O3_top10obs days to natural sources, not international pollution transport. We find that a 3-year averaging period is not long enough to eliminate interannual variability in background O3 on the highest observed O3 days.

Beschreibung: No abstract available

Beschreibung: We present an X-ray spectral and timing analysis of two Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) observations of the transient Be X-ray binary SAX J2103.5+4545 during its 2016 April outburst, which was characterized by the highest flux since NuSTAR's launch. These observations provide detailed hard X-ray spectra of this source during its bright precursor flare and subsequent fainter regular outburst for the first time. In this work, we model the phase-averaged spectra for these observations with a negative and positive power law with an exponential cutoff (NPEX - Negative and Positive power-laws EXponential) model and compare the pulse profiles at different flux states. We found that the broadband pulse profile changes from a three-peaked pulse in the first observation to a two-peaked pulse in the second observation, and that each of the pulse peaks has some energy dependence. We also perform pulse-phase spectroscopy and fit phase-resolved spectra with NPEX to evaluate how spectral parameters change with pulse phase. We find that while the continuum parameters are mostly constant with pulse phase, a weak absorption feature at approximately 12 kiloelectronvolts which might, with further study, be classified as a cyclotron line, does show strong pulse-phase dependence.

Beschreibung: A Saharan air layer (SAL) event associated with a nondeveloping African easterly wave (AEW) over the main development region of the eastern Atlantic was sampled by the NASA Global Hawk aircraft on 24-25 August 2013 during the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) campaign and was simulated with the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) Model. Airborne, ground-based, and spaceborne measurements were used to evaluate the model performance. The microphysical and radiative effects of dust and other aerosols on the SAL structure and environment were investigated with the factor-separation method. The results indicate that relative to a simulation without dust-radiative and microphysical impacts, Saharan dust and other aerosols heated the SAL air mainly through shortwave heating by the direct aerosol-radiation (AR) effect, resulting in a warmer (up to 0.6 K) and drier (up to 5% RH reduction) SAL and maintaining the strong temperature inversion at the base of the SAL in the presence of predominant longwave cooling. Radiative heating of the dust accentuated a vertical circulation within the dust layer, in which air rose (sank) in the northern (southern) portions of the dust layer. Furthermore, above and to the south of the dust layer, both the microphysical and radiative impacts of dust tended to counter the vertical motions associated with the Hadley circulation, causing a small weakening and southward shift of convection in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and reduced anvil cloud to the north. Changes in moisture and cloud/precipitation hydrometeors were largely driven by the dust induced changes in vertical motion. Dust strengthened the African easterly jet by up to ~1ms(exp -1) at the southern edge of the jet, primarily through the AR effect, and produced modest increases in vertical wind shear within and in the vicinity of the dust layer. These modulations of the SAL and AEW environment clearly contributed to the nondevelopment of this AEW.

Beschreibung: A laser interferometer space-based gravitational wave observatory requires an optical telescope to efficiently transfer laser light between pairs of widely-separated sciencecraft. The application is precision interferometric metrology, and therefore requires the telescope to have high optical pathlength stability, and low scattered light performance. We summarize recent activity on the development of a telescope to meet requirements for the LISA mission, including optimization of the optical design, development of a CAD and finite element model, and thinking about how to live with a high level of particulate contamination on the optics and still meet challenging scattered light requirements.

Beschreibung: No abstract available

Beschreibung: Infrared spectra of ices containing alcohols that are known or potential interstellar molecules are examined before and after irradiation with 1 MeV protons at ~20 K. The low-temperature oxidation (hydrogen loss) of six alcohols is followed, and conclusions are drawn based on the results. The formation of reaction products is discussed in terms of the literature on the radiation chemistry of alcohols and a systematic variation in their structures. The results from these new laboratory measurements are then applied to a recent study of propargyl alcohol. Connections are drawn between known interstellar molecules, and several new reaction products in interstellar ices are predicted.

Beschreibung: NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) archives and distributes rich collections of data on atmospheric greenhouse gases from multiple satellite missions and model results. Among those greenhouse gases, atmospheric methane is a powerful greenhouse gas contributing ~0.5 (W/m^2) to total radiative forcing, and its concentration has increased by about 150% since 1750. Observations or estimates of methane emissions typically have sparse spatial and temporal coverage. The lack of comprehensive spatial and temporal coverage of methane source and sink observations has made analyzing atmospheric methane trends challenging. In this study the GES DISC aims to provide the community with the resources to better understand changes in atmospheric methane concentrations and the underlying causes. We will utilize methane datasets from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved methane concentration and three Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) methane emission datasets (in regions of North America, Canada, and Mexico) to compare AIRS methane growth with corresponding CMS regional methane emissions. Comparisons of AIRS methane growth rates and CMS methane emissions suggests wetland emissions may impact methane growth rate trends over North America. As the record for CMS methane data is extended, both datasets can be used in conjunction to better understand impacts on atmospheric methane trends. GES DISCs new anomaly tool can also be used on select datasets to further quantify trends in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Beschreibung: This talk will summarize the shifts in IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)) from Version 03 to 04 in early Spring 2016, and to Version 05 in late Summer 2017. For example, Version 04 replaced approximate pre-launch calibrations with GPM Core Observatory-based calibrations, while Version 05 introduced improved estimates for the primary GPM instrument products (DPR, GMI, and Combined Instrument). In Version 04 the IR estimates were routinely calibrated to the passive microwave estimates. As analysis showed that the Combined Instrument estimates (the IMERG calibration standard) tend to be biased high over land and low over ocean at higher latitudes, in Version 04 we climatologically calibrated IMERG to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly Satellite-Gauge product, except in low- and mid-latitude ocean regions. This calibration leaves the relative time series intact, and only adjusts the mean of the entire series. In Version 05 the primary GPM instrument products have reduced biases, but calibration to GPCP continues to be necessary to achieve the most realistic estimates. Finally, retrospective processing back into the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) era is expected in early 2018, after which the legacy TMPA (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis) dataset will be retired.

Beschreibung: Global simulations of atmospheric chemistry are commonly conducted with off-line chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by archived meteorological data from general circulation models (GCMs). The off-line approach has the advantages of simplicity and expediency, but it incurs errors due to temporal averaging in the meteorological archive and the inability to reproduce the GCM transport algorithms exactly. The CTM simulation is also often conducted at coarser grid resolution than the parent GCM. Here we investigate this cascade of CTM errors by using (exp 222)Rn(exp 210)Pb(exp 7)Be chemical tracer simulations off-line in the GEOS-Chem CTM at rectilinear 0.250.3125 (25km) and 22.5 (200km) resolutions and online in the parent GEOS-5 GCM at cubed-sphere c360 (25km) and c48 (200km) horizontal resolutions. The c360 GEOS-5 GCM meteorological archive, updated every 3h and remapped to 0.250.3125, is the standard operational product generated by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and used as input by GEOS-Chem. We find that the GEOS-Chem (exp 222)Rn simulation at native 0.250.3125 resolution is affected by vertical transport errors of up to 20% relative to the GEOS-5 c360 online simulation, in part due to loss of transient organized vertical motions in the GCM (resolved convection) that are temporally averaged out in the 3h meteorological archive. There is also significant error caused by operational remapping of the meteorological archive from a cubed-sphere to a rectilinear grid. Decreasing the GEOS-Chem resolution from 0.250.3125 to 22.5 induces further weakening of vertical transport as transient vertical motions are averaged out spatially and temporally. The resulting (exp 222)Rn concentrations simulated by the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem are overestimated by up to 40% in surface air relative to the online c360 simulations and underestimated by up to 40% in the upper troposphere, while the tropospheric lifetimes of (exp 210)Pb and (exp 7)Be against aerosol deposition are affected by 510%. The lost vertical transport in the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem simulation can be partly restored by recomputing the convective mass fluxes at the appropriate resolution to replace the archived convective mass fluxes and by correcting for bias in the spatial averaging of boundary layer mixing depths.

Beschreibung: We examine the generation of kappa distributions in the solar wind plasma near 1 au. Several mechanisms are mentioned in the literature, each characterized by a specific relationship between the solar wind plasma features, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the kappa index-the parameter that governs the kappa distributions. This relationship serves as a signature condition that helps the identification of the mechanism in the plasma. In general, a mechanism that generates kappa distributions involves a single or a series of stochastic or physical processes that induces local correlations among particles. We identify three fundamental solar wind plasma conditions that can generate kappa distributions, noted as (i) Debye shielding, (ii) frozen IMF, and (iii) temperature fluctuations, each one prevailing in different scales of solar wind plasma and magnetic field properties. Moreover, our findings show that the kappa distributions, and thus, their generating mechanisms, vary significantly with solar wind features: (i) the kappa index has different dependence on the solar wind speed for slow and fast modes, i.e., slow wind is characterized by a quasi-constant kappa index, K (is) approx. 4.3 +/- 0.7, while fast wind exhibits kappa indices that increase with bulk speed; (ii) the dispersion of magnetosonic waves is more effective for lower kappa indices (i.e., further from thermal equilibrium); and (iii) the kappa and polytropic indices are positively correlated, as it was anticipated by the theory.

Beschreibung: The study of time-dependent solar active region (AR) morphology and its relation to eruptive events requires analysis of imaging data obtained in multiple wavelength domains with differing spatial and time resolution, ideally in combination with 3D physical models. To facilitate this goal, we have undertaken a major enhancement of our IDL-based simulation tool, GX_Simulator, previously developed for modeling microwave and X-ray emission from flaring loops, to allow it to simulate quiescent emission from solar ARs. The framework includes new tools for building the atmospheric model and enhanced routines for calculating emission that include new wavelengths. In this paper, we use our upgraded tool to model and analyze an AR and compare the synthetic emission maps with observations. We conclude that the modeled magneto-thermal structure is a reasonably good approximation of the real one.

Beschreibung: James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a large infrared observing space telescope which will launch in 2020. The observatory is comprised of 4 major subsystems; (1) Optical Telescope Element (OTE), (2) Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM), (3) Sunshield, (4) Spacecraft Bus. The OTE and ISIM are integrated together at Goddard Space Flight Center to form the OTIS assembly,

Beschreibung: No abstract available

Beschreibung: The COSmIC facility was developed at NASA Ames to study interstellar, circumstellar and planetary analogs in the laboratory]. COSmIC stands for "Cosmic Simulation Chamber" and is dedicated to the study of neutral and ionized molecules and nanoparticles under the low temperature and high vacuum conditions that are required to simulate space environments. COSmIC integrates a variety of instruments that allow generating; processing and monitoring simulated space conditions in the laboratory. It is composed of a Pulsed Discharge Nozzle (PDN) expansion that generates a plasma in a free supersonic jet expansion coupled to high-sensitivity, complementary in situ diagnostic tools, used for the detection and characterization of the species present in the expansion: a Cavity Ring Down Spectroscopy (CRDS) and fluorescence spectroscopy systems for photonic detection, and a Reflectron Time-Of-Flight Mass Spectrometer (ReTOF-MS) for mass detection. Recent advances achieved in laboratory astrophysics using COSmIC will be presented, in particular in the domain of the diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs) and the monitoring, in the laboratory, of the formation of dust grains and aerosols from their gasphase molecular precursors in environments as varied as circumstellar outflows and planetary atmospheres. Plans for future laboratory experiments on cosmic molecules and grains in the growing field of laboratory astrophysics (NIR-MIR CRDS, Laser Induced Fluorescence spectra of cosmic molecule analogs and the laser induced incandescence spectra of cosmic grain analogs) will also be addressed as well as the implications of the on-going studies for astronomy.

Beschreibung: We report the first extragalactic detection of the complex organic molecules (COMs) dimethyl ether (CH3OCH3) and methyl formate (CH3OCHO) with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA). These COMs, together with their parent species methanol (CH3OH), were detected toward two 1.3 mm continuum sources in the N 113 star-forming region in the low-metallicity Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Rotational temperatures (Trot approx. 130 K) and total column densities (Nrot 10 approx. 16 cm2) have been calculated for each source based on multiple transitions of CH3OH. We present the ALMA molecular emission maps for COMs and measured abundances for all detected species. The physical and chemical properties of two sources with COMs detection, and the association with H2O and OH maser emission, indicate that they are hot cores. The fractional abundances of COMs scaled by a factor of 2.5 to account for the lower metallicity in the LMC are comparable to those found at the lower end of the range in Galactic hot cores. Our results have important implications for studies of organic chemistry at higher redshift.

Beschreibung: We present x-ray characteristics of the Hard X-ray Telescopes (HXTs) on board the Hitomi (ASTRO-H) satellite. Measurements were conducted at the SPring-8 BL20B2 beamline and the ISAS/JAXA 27-m beamline.

Beschreibung: In the coming years and decades, advanced space- and ground-based observatories will allow an unprecedented opportunity to probe the atmospheres and surfaces of potentially habitable exoplanets for signatures of life. Life on Earth, through its gaseous products and reflectance and scattering properties, has left its fingerprint on the spectrum of our planet. Aided by the universality of the laws of physics and chemistry, we turn to Earth's biosphere, both in the present and through geologic time, for analog signatures that will aid in the search for life elsewhere. Considering the insights gained from modern and ancient Earth, and the broader array of hypothetical exoplanet possibilities, we have compiled a comprehensive overview of our current understanding of potential exoplanet biosignatures, including gaseous, surface, and temporal biosignatures. We additionally survey biogenic spectral features that are well known in the specialist literature but have not yet been robustly vetted in the context of exoplanet biosignatures. We briefly review advances in assessing biosignature plausibility, including novel methods for determining chemical disequilibrium from remotely obtainable data and assessment tools for determining the minimum biomass required to maintain short-lived biogenic gases as atmospheric signatures. We focus particularly on advances made since the seminal review by Des Marais et al. The purpose of this work is not to propose new biosignature strategies, a goal left to companion articles in this series, but to review the current literature, draw meaningful connections between seemingly disparate areas, and clear the way for a path forward.

Beschreibung: The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative compactness of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/ dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, "New Arctic", sea ice regime.

Beschreibung: We stack the rest-frame ultraviolet spectra of N = 14 highly magnified gravitationally lensed galaxies at redshifts 1.6 〈 z 〈 3.6. The resulting new composite spans 900 〈 lambda rest 〈 3000 Angstrom, with a peak signal-to-noise ratio of 103 per spectral resolution element (approximately 100 km s (exp -1)). It is the highest signalto-noise ratio, highest spectral resolution composite spectrum of z approximately 2-3 galaxies yet published. The composite reveals numerous weak nebular emission lines and stellar photospheric absorption lines that can serve as new physical diagnostics, particularly at high redshift with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We report equivalent widths to aid in proposing for and interpreting JWST spectra. We examine the velocity profiles of strong absorption features in the composite, and in a matched composite of z approximately 0 COS/HST galaxy spectra. We find remarkable similarity in the velocity profiles at z approximately 0 and z approximately 2, suggesting that similar physical processes control the outflows across cosmic time. While the maximum outflow velocity depends strongly on ionization potential, the absorptionweighted mean velocity does not. As such, the bulk of the high-ionization absorption traces the low-ionization gas, with an additional blueshifted absorption tail extending to at least approximately 2000 km s (exp -1). We interpret this tail as arising from the stellar wind and photospheres of massive stars. Starburst99 models are able to replicate this high-velocity absorption tail. However, these theoretical models poorly reproduce several of the photospheric absorption features, indicating that improvements are needed to match observational constraints on the massive stellar content of star-forming galaxies at z approximately 2. We publicly release our composite spectra.

Beschreibung: No abstract available