ALBERT

Description: This manuscript describes a method to class@ cirrus cloud ice particle shape using lidar depolarization measurements as a basis for segregating different particle shape regimes. Measurements from the ER-2 Cloud Physics Lidar (CPL) system during CRYSTAL-FACE provide the basis for this work. While the CPL onboard the ER-2 aircraft was providing remote sensing measurements of cirrus clouds, the Cloud Particle Imager (CPI) onboard the WB-57 aircraft was flying inside those same clouds to sample particle sizes. The results of classifying particle shapes using the CPL data are compared to the in situ measurements made using the CPI , and there is found to be good agreement between the particle shape inferred from the CPL data and that actually measured by the CPI. If proven practical, application of this technique to spaceborne observations could lead to large-scale classification of cirrus cloud particle shapes.

Description: During the ACE Asia intensive field campaign conducted in the spring of 2001 aerosol properties were measured onboard the R/V Ronald H. Brown to study the effects of the Asian aerosol on atmospheric chemistry and climate in downwind regions. Aerosol properties measured in the marine boundary layer included chemical composition; number size distribution; and light scattering, hemispheric backscattering, and absorption coefficients. In addition, optical depth and vertical profiles of aerosol 180 deg backscatter were measured. Aerosol within the ACE Asia study region was found to be a complex mixture resulting from marine, pollution, volcanic, and dust sources. Presented here as a function of air mass source region are the mass fractions of the dominant aerosol chemical components, the fraction of the scattering measured at the surface due to each component, mass scattering efficiencies of the individual components, aerosol scattering and absorption coefficients, single scattering albedo, Angstrom exponents, optical depth, and vertical profiles of aerosol extinction. All results except aerosol optical depth and the vertical profiles of aerosol extinction are reported at a relative humidity of 55 +/- 5%. An over-determined data set was collected so that measured and calculated aerosol properties could be compared, internal consistency in the data set could be assessed, and sources of uncertainty could be identified. By taking into account non-sphericity of the dust aerosol, calculated and measured aerosol mass and scattering coefficients agreed within overall experimental uncertainties. Differences between measured and calculated aerosol absorption coefficients were not within reasonable uncertainty limits, however, and may indicate the inability of Mie theory and the assumption of internally mixed homogeneous spheres to predict absorption by the ACE Asia aerosol. Mass scattering efficiencies of non-sea salt sulfate aerosol, sea salt, submicron particulate organic matter, and dust found for the ACE Asia aerosol are comparable to values estimated for ACE 1, Aerosols99, and INDOEX. Unique to the ACE Asia aerosol was the large mass fractions of dust, the dominance of dust in controlling the aerosol optical properties, and the interaction of dust with soot aerosol.

Description: The terminology East Asian summer monsoon is used to refer to the heavy rainfall in southeast China including the Yangtze River Valley starting in May and ending in August (e.g., Chen and Chang 1980, Tao and Chen 1987, Ding 1992, Chang et al. 2000a.) This rainfall region is associated with the Mei-Yu front, which extends to Japan and its neighborhood and is called Baiu there. The Mei-Yu front becomes prominent in May and has a slow northward movement. From May to July the elongated rain belt moves from the southeast coast of China to the Yangtze River Valley. The rain belt extends north-east-ward to south of Japan in May and later covers Korea also. The purpose of this note is to point out that the terminology of East Asian summer monsoon is a misnomer to refer to the portion of this rainbelt residing over East Asia, in the sense that it is not a monsoon.

Description: NASA's 4th Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4) focused on Atlantic hurricanes during the 2001 hurricane season and it involved both NASA and NOAA participation. The NASA ER-2 and DC-8 aircraft were instrumented with unique remote sensing instruments to help increase the overall understanding of hurricanes. This paper is concerned about one of the storms studied, Tropical Storm Chantal, that was a weak storm which failed to intense into a hurricane. One of the practical questions of high importance is why some tropical sto~ins intensify into hurricanes, and others remain weak or die altogether. The magnitude of the difference between the horizontal winds at lower levels and upper altitudes in a tropical storm, i.e., the wind shear, is one important quantity that can affect the intensification of a tropical storm. Strong shear as was present during Tropical Storm Chantal s lifetime and it was detrimental to its intensification. The paper presents an analysis of unique aircraft observations collected from Chantal including an on-board radar, radiometers, dropsondes, and flight level measurements. These measurements have enabled us to examine the internal structure of the winds and thermal structure of Chantal. Most of the previous studies have involved intense hurricanes that overcame the effects of shear and this work has provided new insights into what prevents a weaker storm from intensifying. The storm had extremely intense thunderstorms and rainfall, yet its main circulation was confined to low levels of the atmosphere. Chantal's thermal structure was not configured properly for the storm to intensify. It is most typical that huricanes have a warm core structure where warm temperatures in upper levels of a storm s circulation help intensify surface winds and lower its central pressure. Chantal had two weaker warm layers instead of a well-defined warm core. These layers have been related to the horizontal and vertical winds and precipitation structure and have helped us learn more about why this storm didn't develop.

Description: Understanding the exchange of gases between the stratosphere and the troposphere is important for determining how pollutants enter the stratosphere and how they leave. This study does a global analysis of that the exchange of mass between the stratosphere and the troposphere. While the exchange of mass is not the same as the exchange of constituents, you can t get the constituent exchange right if you have the mass exchange wrong. Thus this kind of calculation is an important test for models which also compute trace gas transport. In this study I computed the mass exchange for two assimilated data sets and a GCM. The models all agree that amount of mass descending from the stratosphere to the troposphere in the Northern Hemisphere extra tropics is approx. 10(exp 10) kg/s averaged over a year. The value for the Southern Hemisphere by about a factor of two. ( 10(exp 10) kg of air is the amount of air in 100 km x 100 km area with a depth of 100 m - roughly the size of the D.C. metro area to a depth of 300 feet.) Most people have the idea that most of the mass enters the stratosphere through the tropics. But this study shows that almost 5 times more mass enters the stratosphere through the extra-tropics. This mass, however, is quickly recycled out again. Thus the lower most stratosphere is a mixture of upper stratospheric air and tropospheric air. This is an important result for understanding the chemistry of the lower stratosphere.

Description: The knowledge of the atmospherics phenomenon is an important part in the communication system. The principal factor that contributes to the attenuation in a Ka band communication system is the rain attenuation. We have four years of tropical region observations. The data in the tropical region was taken in Humacao, Puerto Rico. Previous data had been collected at various climate regions such as desserts, template area and sub-tropical regions. Figure 1 shows the ITU-R rain zone map for North America. Rain rates are important to the rain attenuation prediction models. The models that predict attenuation generally are of two different kinds. The first one is the regression models. By using a data set these models provide an idea of the observed attenuation and rain rates distribution in the present, past and future. The second kinds of models are physical models which use the probability density functions (PDF).

Description: In the polar region of the upper mesosphere, horizontal wind oscillations have been observed with periods around 10 hours. Waves with such a period are generated in our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), and they are identified as planetary-scale inertio gravity waves (IGW). These IGWs have periods between 9 and 11 hours and appear above 60 km in the zonal mean (m = 0), as well as in zonal wavenumbers m = 1 to 4. The waves can propagate eastward and westward and have vertical wavelengths around 25 km. The amplitudes in the wind field are typically between 10 and 20 m/s and can reach 30 m/s in the westward propagating component for m = 1 at the poles. In the temperature perturbations, the wave amplitudes above 100 km are typically 5 K and as large as 10 K for m = 0 at the poles. The IGWs are intermittent but reveal systematic seasonal variations, with the largest amplitudes occurring generally in late winter and spring. In the NSM, the IGW are generated like the planetary waves (PW). They are produced apparently by the instabilities that arise in the zonal mean circulation. Relative to the PWs, however, the IGWs propagate zonally with much larger velocities, such that they are not affected much by interactions with the background zonal winds. Since the IGWs can propagate through the mesosphere without much interaction, except for viscous dissipation, one should then expect that they reach the thermosphere with significant and measurable amplitudes.

Description: Tropical deep convection and its dynamical effect on the tropopause and stratosphere are investigated using a suite of data from the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), including upper tropospheric humidity, cloud radiance, and gravity wave measurements.

Description: The nature of observed variations in temperature-salinity (T-S) relationship between El Nino and non-El Nino years in the pycnocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (NINO3 region, 5(deg)S-5(deg)N, 150(deg)W-90(deg)W) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model. The origin of the subject water mass is identified using the adjoint of a simulated passive tracer. The higher salinity during El Nino is attributed to larger convergence of saltier water from the Southern Hemisphere and smaller convergence of fresher water from the Northern Hemisphere.

Description: Comparisons are performed between spatially averaged sea surface temperatures (ASST2) as derived from the second Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR-2) on board the second European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2) and the NOAA-NASA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Oceans Pathfinder dataset (MPFSST). Difference maps, MPFSST 2 ASST2, along with the application of a simple statistical regression model to aerosol and cloud data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer ( TOMS), are used to examine the impact of possible aerosol and cloud contamination. Differences varied regionally, but the largest biases were seen off western Africa. Nighttime and daytime differences off western Africa were reduced from -0.5degrees to -0.2degreesC and from -0.1degrees to 0degreesC, respectively. Significant cloud flagging, based on the model, occurred in the Indian Ocean, the equatorial Pacific, and in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons of the MPFSST and the ASST2 with in situ data from the 2002 version of the World Oceanic Database (WOD02) off western Africa show larger mean differences for the MPFSST. The smallest mean differences occurred for nighttime ASST2 - WOD02 with a value of 0.0degrees +/- 0.4degreesC.

Description: The authors use satellite data to examine the relationship between lightning and upper-level radar reflectivity. They find correlations between average flash rates and upper-level reflectivities over both land and ocean, although both flash rates and reflectivities are much lower over ocean than land. Analysis of the data using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) shows similar EOFs for averaged lightning and reflectivity. In contrast, the EOFs of the anomalies of lightning and reflectivity have different spatial patterns; however, both have principal component time series that are correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index and, hence, El Nino. Differences in behavior of the lightning and reflectivity anomaly EOFs and principal components suggest that El Nino plays a smaller role in lightning anomaly than precipitation anomaly.

Description: In this study, a framework is discussed to apply air/space-borne dual-wavelength radar for the estimation of characteristic parameters of hydrometeors. The focus of our study is on the Global Precipitation Measurements (GPM) precipitation radar, a dual-wavelength radar that operates at Ku (13.8 GHz) and Ka (35 GHz) bands. As the droplet size distributions (DSD) of rain are expressed as the Gamma function, a procedure is described to derive the median volume diameter (D(sub 0)) and particle number concentration (N(sub T)) of rain. The correspondences of an important quantity of dual-wavelength radar, defined as deferential frequency ratio (DFR), to the D(sub 0) in the melting region are given as a function of the distance from the 0 C isotherm. A self-consistent iterative algorithm that shows a promising to account for rain attenuation of radar and infer the DSD without use of surface reference technique (SRT) is examined by applying it to the apparent radar reflectivity profiles simulated from the DSD model and then comparing the estimates with the model (true) results. For light to moderate rain the self-consistent rain profiling approach converges to unique and correct solutions only if the same shape factors of Gamma functions are used both to generate and retrieve the rain profiles, but does not converges to the true solutions if the DSD form is not chosen correctly. To further examine the dual-wavelength techniques, the self-consistent algorithm, along with forward and backward rain profiling algorithms, is then applied to the measurements taken from the 2nd generation Precipitation Radar (PR-2) built by Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It is found that rain profiles estimated from the forward and backward approaches are not sensitive to shape factor of DSD Gamma distribution, but the self-consistent method is.

Description: A revised Bayesian algorithm for estimating surface rain rate, convective rain proportion, and latent heating/drying profiles from satellite-borne passive microwave radiometer observations over ocean backgrounds is described. The algorithm searches a large database of cloud-radiative model simulations to find cloud profiles that are radiatively consistent with a given set of microwave radiance measurements. The properties of these radiatively consistent profiles are then composited to obtain best estimates of the observed properties. The revised algorithm is supported by an expanded and more physically consistent database of cloud-radiative model simulations. The algorithm also features a better quantification of the convective and non-convective contributions to total rainfall, a new geographic database, and an improved representation of background radiances in rain-free regions. Bias and random error estimates are derived from applications of the algorithm to synthetic radiance data, based upon a subset of cloud resolving model simulations, and from the Bayesian formulation itself. Synthetic rain rate and latent heating estimates exhibit a trend of high (low) bias for low (high) retrieved values. The Bayesian estimates of random error are propagated to represent errors at coarser time and space resolutions, based upon applications of the algorithm to TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) data. Errors in instantaneous rain rate estimates at 0.5 deg resolution range from approximately 50% at 1 mm/h to 20% at 14 mm/h. These errors represent about 70-90% of the mean random deviation between collocated passive microwave and spaceborne radar rain rate estimates. The cumulative algorithm error in TMI estimates at monthly, 2.5 deg resolution is relatively small (less than 6% at 5 mm/day) compared to the random error due to infrequent satellite temporal sampling (8-35% at the same rain rate).

Description: The water cycle is the key circuit moving water through the Earth's system. This large system, powered by energy from the sun, is a continuous exchange of moisture between the oceans, the atmosphere, and the land. Precipitation (including rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and hail), is the primary mechanism for transporting water from the atmosphere back to the Earth's surface and is the key physical process that links aspects of climate, weather, and the global water cycle. Global precipitation and associate cloud processes are critical for understanding the water cycle balance on a global scale and interactions with the Earth's climate system. However, unlike measurement of less dynamic and more homogenous meteorological fields such as pressure or even temperature, accurate assessment of global precipitation is particularly challenging due to its highly stochastic and rapidly changing nature. It is not uncommon to observe a broad spectrum of precipitation rates and distributions over very localized time scales. Furthermore, precipitating systems generally exhibit nonhomogeneous spatial distributions of rain rates over local to global domains.

Description: Precise repeat airborne laser surveys were conducted over the major ice caps in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago in the spring of 1995 and 2000 in order to measure elevation changes in the region. Our measurements reveal thinning at lower elevations (below 1600 m) on most of the ice caps and glaciers, but either very little change or thickening at higher elevations in the ice cap accumulation zones. Recent increases in precipitation in the area can account for the slight thickening where it was observed, but not for the thinning at lower elevations. For the northern ice caps on the Queen Elizabeth Islands, thinning was generally less than 0.5 m/yr , which is consistent with what would be expected from the warm temperature anomalies in the region for the 5-year period between surveys and appears to be a continuation of a trend that began in the mid 1980s. Further south, however, on the Barnes and Penny ice caps on Baffin Island, this thinning was much more pronounced at over 1 m/yr in the lower elevations. Here temperature anomalies were very small, and the thinning at low elevations far exceeds any associated enhanced ablation. The observations on Barnes, and perhaps Penny are consistent with the idea that the observed thinning is part of a much longer term deglaciation, as has been previously suggested for Barnes Ice Cap. Based on the regional relationships between elevation and elevation-change in our data, the 1995-2000 mass balance for the region is estimated to be 25 cu km/yr of ice, which corresponds to a sea level increase of 0.064 mm/ yr . This places it among the more significant sources of eustatic sea level rise, though not as substantial as Greenland ice sheet, Alaskan glaciers, or the Patagonian ice fields.

Description: A unique set of measurements of wind, water vapor mixing ratio and boundary layer height variability was observed during the first MOP dryline mission of 22 May 2002. Water vapor mixing ratio from the Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL), high-resolution profiles of aerosol backscatter from the HARLIE and wind profiles from the GLOW are combined with the vertical velocity derived from the NCAR/ISS/MAPR and the high-resolution FMCW radar to reveal the convective variability of the cumulus cloud-topped boundary layer. A combined analysis of the in-situ and remote sensing data from aircraft, radiosonde, lidars, and radars reveals moisture variability within boundary layer updraft and downdraft regions as well as characterizes the boundary layer height variability in the dry and moist sides of the dryline. The profiler site measurements will be tied to aircraft data to reveal the relative intensity and location of these updrafts to the dry line. This study provides unprecedented high temporal and spatial resolution measurements of wind, moisture and backscatter within a dryline and the associated convective boundary layer.

Description: Although dry/moist potential vorticity is a useful physical quantity for meteorological analysis, it cannot be applied to the analysis of 2D simulations. A convective vorticity vector (CVV) is introduced in this study to analyze 2D cloud-resolving simulation data associated with 2D tropical convection. The cloud model is forced by the vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal advection, and sea surface temperature obtained from the TOGA COARE, and is integrated for a selected 10-day period. The CVV has zonal and vertical components in the 2D x-z frame. Analysis of zonally-averaged and mass-integrated quantities shows that the correlation coefficient between the vertical component of the CVV and the sum of the cloud hydrometeor mixing ratios is 0.81, whereas the correlation coefficient between the zonal component and the sum of the mixing ratios is only 0.18. This indicates that the vertical component of the CVV is closely associated with tropical convection. The tendency equation for the vertical component of the CVV is derived and the zonally-averaged and mass-integrated tendency budgets are analyzed. The tendency of the vertical component of the CVV is determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal gradient of cloud heating. The results demonstrate that the vertical component of the CVV is a cloud-linked parameter and can be used to study tropical convection.

Description: Previous estimates of land-atmosphere interaction (the impact of soil moisture on precipitation) have been limited by a severe paucity of relevant observational data and by the model-dependence of the various computational estimates. To counter this limitation, a dozen climate modeling groups have recently performed the same highly-controlled numerical experiment as part of a coordinated intercomparison project. This allows, for the first time ever, a superior multi-model approach to the estimation of the regions on the globe where precipitation is affected by soil moisture anomalies during Northern Hemisphere summer. Such estimation has many potential benefits; it can contribute, for example, to seasonal rainfall prediction efforts.

Description: Over the tropical land regions observations of the 85 GHz brightness temperature (T(sub 85v)) made by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer when analyzed with the help of rain rate (R(sub pR)) deduced from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) indicate that there are two maxima in rain rate. One strong maximum occurs when T(sub 85) has a value of about 220 K and the other weaker one when T(sub 85v) is much colder approx. 150 K. Together with the help of earlier studies based on airborne Doppler Radar observations and radiative transfer theoretical simulations, we infer the maximum near 220 K is a result of relatively weak scattering due to super cooled rain drops and water coated ice hydrometeors associated with a developing thunderstorm (Cb) that has a strong updraft. The other maximum is associated with strong scattering due to ice particles that are formed when the updraft collapses and the rain from the Cb is transit2oning from convective type to stratiform type. Incorporating these ideas and with a view to improve the estimation of rain rate from existing operational method applicable to the tropical land areas, we have developed a rain retrieval model. This model utilizes two parameters, that have a horizontal scale of approx. 20km, deduced from the TMI measurements at 19, 21 and 37 GHz (T(sub 19v), T(sub 21v), T(sub 37v). The third parameter in the model, namely the horizontal gradient of brightness temperature within the 20 km scale, is deduced from TMI measurements at 85 GHz. Utilizing these parameters our retrieval model is formulated to yield instantaneous rain rate on a scale of 20 km and seasonal average on a mesoscale that agree well with that of the PR.

Description: Linear regression trends for the years 1979-2003 were computed using the new Version 8 merged Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data set of ozone profiles. These trends were compared to trends computed using ozone profiles from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) zonally averaged coupled model. Observed and modeled annual trends between 50 N and 50 S were a maximum in the higher latitudes of the upper stratosphere, with southern hemisphere (SH) trends greater than northern hemisphere (NH) trends. The observed upper stratospheric maximum annual trend is -5.5 +/- 0.9 % per decade (1 sigma) at 47.5 S and -3.8 +/- 0.5 % per decade at 47.5 N, to be compared with the modeled trends of -4.5 +/- 0.3 % per decade in the SH and -4.0 +/- 0.2% per decade in the NH. Both observed and modeled trends are most negative in winter and least negative in summer, although the modeled seasonal difference is less than observed. Model trends are shown to be greatest in winter due to a repartitioning of chlorine species and the increasing abundance of chlorine with time. The model results show that trend differences can occur depending on whether ozone profiles are in mixing ratio or number density coordinates, and on whether they are recorded on pressure or altitude levels.

Description: The data from twenty years of the NCEP numerical weather model have been used to calculate the IMF hydrostatic mapping function for several sites distributed in latitude from -66 degrees to +78 degrees. Comparison of heights estimated with the NMF hydrostatic mapping function demonstrates that using NMFh results in height errors at annual and semi-annual periods with amplitudes as large as approximately 8 mm and 4 mm, respectively, when data down to 5 degrees are included. The errors are smallest at the equator and increase towards the poles.

Description: Spatially detailed satellite data of mean color, sea ice concentration, surface temperature, clouds, and wind have been analyzed to quantify and study the large scale regional and temporal variability of phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic and peripheral seas from 1998 to 2002. In the Arctic basin, phytoplankton chlorophyll displays a large symmetry with the Eastern Arctic having about fivefold higher concentrations than those of the Western Arctic. Large monthly and yearly variability is also observed in the peripheral seas with the largest blooms occurring in the Bering Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, and the Barents Sea during spring. There is large interannual and seasonal variability in biomass with average chlorophyll concentrations in 2002 and 2001 being higher than earlier years in spring and summer. The seasonality in the latitudinal distribution of blooms is also very different such that the North Atlantic is usually most expansive in spring while the North Pacific is more extensive in autumn. Environmental factors that influence phytoplankton growth were examined, and results show relatively high negative correlation with sea ice retreat and strong positive correlation with temperature in early spring. Plankton growth, as indicated by biomass accumulation, in the Arctic and subarctic increases up to a threshold surface temperature of about 276-277 degree K (3-4 degree C) beyond which the concentrations start to decrease suggesting an optimal temperature or nutrient depletion. The correlation with clouds is significant in some areas but negligible in other areas, while the correlations with wind speed and its components are generally weak. The effects of clouds and winds are less predictable with weekly climatologies because of unknown effects of averaging variable and intermittent physical forcing (e.g. over storm event scales with mixing and upwelling of nutrients) and the time scales of acclimation by the phytoplankton.

Description: The NASA/GSFC Scanning Raman Lidar (SRL) was stationed on Andros Island, Bahamas for the third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX 3) held in August - September, 1998 and acquired an extensive set of water vapor and cirrus cloud measurements (Whiteman et al., 2001). The cirrus data studied here have been segmented by generating mechanism. Distinct differences in the optical properties of the clouds are found when the cirrus are hurricane-induced versus thunderstom-induced. Relationships of cirrus cloud optical depth, mean cloud temperature, and layer mean extinction-to-backscatter ratio (S) are presented and compared with mid-latitude and tropical results. Hurricane-induced cirrus clouds are found to generally possess lower values of S than thunderstorm induced clouds. Comparison of these measurements of S are made with other studies revealing at times large differences in the measurements. Given that S is a required parameter for spacebased retrievals of cloud optical depth using backscatter lidar, these large diffaences in S measurements present difficulties for space-based retrievals of cirrus cloud extinction and optical depth.

Description: Scattering properties of the Ocean surface have been widely used as a calibration reference for airborne and spaceborne microwave sensors. However, at millimeter-wave frequencies, the ocean surface backscattering mechanism is still not well understood, in part, due to the lack of experimental measurements. During the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE), measurements of ocean surface backscattering were made using a 94-GHz (W-band) cloud radar onboard a NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft. The measurement set includes the normalized Ocean surface cross section over a range of the incidence angles under a variety of wind conditions. Analysis of the radar measurements shows good agreement with a quasi-specular scattering model. This unprecedented dataset enhances our knowledge about the Ocean surface scattering mechanism at 94 GHz. The results of this work support the proposition of using the Ocean surface as a calibration reference for airborne millimeter-wave cloud radars and for the ongoing NASA CloudSat mission, which will use a 94-GHz spaceborne cloud radar for global cloud measurements.

Description: Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

Description: This paper describes ozone profiles from sonde data during the period of NASA s TRACE-A and the more recent SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) period. The data were taken by the South African Weather Service at the Irene (25 deg.54 min S; 28 deg. 13 min. E) station near Pretoria, South Africa, an area that is a unique mixture of local industry, heavy biofuels use and importation of biomass burning ozone from neighboring countries to the north. The main findings are: (1) With its geographical position at the edge of the subtropical transition zone, mid- latitude dynamical influences are evident at Irene, predominantly in winter when upper tropospheric ozone is enhanced as a result of stratospheric-tropospheric exchange. (2) There has been an increase in the near-surface ozone amount between the early 1990s and a decade later, presumably due to an influx of rural population toward the Johannesburg-Pretoria area, as well as with industrial growth and development. (3) Most significant for developing approaches for satellite ozone profile climatologies, cluster analysis has enabled the delineation of a background and "most polluted" profile. Enhancements of at least 30% occur throughout the troposphere in spring and in certain layers increases of 100 % are observed.

Description: Results provided by two different assimilation methodologies involving data from passive and active space-borne microwave instruments are presented. The impact of the precipitation estimates produced by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) in a previously developed 1D variational continuous assimilation algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall is shown on two hurricane cases. Results on the impact of the SeaWinds scatterometer on the intensity and track forecast of a mid-Atlantic hurricane are also presented. This work is the outcome of a collaborative effort between NASA and NOAA and indicates the substantial improvement in tropical cyclone forecasting that can result from the assimilation of space-based data in global atmospheric models.

Description: The Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite is scheduled to launch in the second quarter of 2004. The Aura mission is designed to attack three science questions: (1) Is the ozone layer recovering as expected? (2) What are the sources and processes that control tropospheric pollutants? (3) What is the quantitative impact of constituents on climate change? Aura will answer these questions by globally measuring a comprehensive set of trace gases and aerosols at high vertical and horizontal resolution. Fig. 1 shows the Aura spacecraft and its four instruments.

Description: Howard (1833a) made the first documented observation of a temperature difference between an urban area and its rural environment. Manley (1958) termed this contrast the "urban heat island (UHI)". The UHI has now become a widely acknowledged, observed, and researched phenomenon because of its broad implications. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). In the United States, the current urban growth rate is approximately 12.5%, with 80% currently living in urban areas. As cities continue to grow, urban sprawl creates unique problems related to land use, transportation, agriculture, housing, pollution, and development for policymakers. Urban expansion and its associated urban heat islands also have measurable impacts on weather and climate processes.

Description: The July 2004 CRYSTAL-FACE field program, based from Key West, Florida, showed that long-lived thin tropopause cirrus (TTC) layers were common above thunderstorm anvils. This paper investigates the origins of these cloud using airborne measurements. The horizontal dimensions of the TTC were nearly identical to the convectively formed anvil beneath. However, the TTC did not appear to have originated from convective detrainment. Rather it appears to have formed in stably stratified air derived from high altitudes near the tropopause. The TTC was separated from the anvil by approx. 1 km, it lacked precipitation particles, and it was strongly depleted in HDO. Nonetheless, compared to surrounding clear air near the tropopause, the TTC was enriched in moisture and trace gases in a manner consistent with it having mixed with the same convective airmass that produced the anvil. Unlike surrounding air, the TTC had embedded a monochromatic gravity wave with a wavelength of 2 km and an amplitude of several hundred meters. Combined, this evidence, supported by a photograph from CRYSTAL-FACE, leads to the conjecture that the TTC originated as a pileus cloud layer, which formed near the tropopause ahead of vigorous convective uplift. We hypothesize that the pileus was penetrated by the convection, moistened through mixing, and once the convection subsided, it was sustained by radiative cooling due to the presence of the anvil layer beneath.

Description: The 6-year (1998-2003) rainfall products from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) are used to quantify the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the eastern Pacific (defined by longitudinal averages over 90 degrees W-130 degrees W) during boreal spring (March-April). The double ITCZ phenomenon, represented by the occurrence of two maxima with respect to latitude in monthly mean rainfall, is observed in most but not all of the years studied. The relative spatial locations of maxima in sea surface temperature (SST), rainfall, and surface pressure are examined. Interannual and weekly variability are characterized in SST, rainfall, surface convergence, total column water vapor, and cloud water. There appears to be a competition for rainfall between the two hemispheres during this season. When one of the two rainfall maxima is particularly strong, the other tends to be weak, with the total rainfall integrated over the two varying less than does the difference between the rainfall integrated over each separately. There is some evidence for a similar competition between the SST maxima in the two hemispheres, but this is more ambiguous, and there is evidence that some variations in the relative strengths of the two rainfall maxima may be independent of SST. Using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), four distinct ITCZ types during March-April are defined, based on the relative strengths of rainfall peaks north and south of, and right over the equator. Composite meridional profiles and spatial distributions of rainfall and SST are documented for each type. Consistent with previous studies, an equatorial cold tongue is essential to the existence of the double ITCZs. However, too strong a cold tongue may dampen either the southern or northern rainfall maximum, depending on the magnitude of SST north of the equator.

Description: Remote sensing of snow depth has been used to infer snow depth for many years. Passive microwave remote sensing of snow depth is compared with the snow gauge data.

Description: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides monthly rainfall estimates using data collected by the TRMM satellite. These estimates cover a substantial fraction of the earth's surface. The physical validation of TRMM estimates involves corroborating the accuracy of spaceborne estimates of areal rainfall by inferring errors and biases from ground-based rain estimates. The TRMM error budget consists of two major sources of error: retrieval and sampling. Sampling errors are intrinsic to the process of estimating monthly rainfall and occur because the satellite extrapolates monthly rainfall from a small subset of measurements collected only during satellite overpasses. Retrieval errors, on the other hand, are related to the process of collecting measurements while the satellite is overhead. One of the big challenges confronting the TRMM validation effort is how to best estimate these two main components of the TRMM error budget, which are not easily decoupled. This four-year study computed bulk sampling and retrieval errors for the TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and the precipitation radar (PR) by applying a technique that sub-samples gauge data at TRMM overpass times. Gridded monthly rain estimates are then computed from the monthly bulk statistics of the collected samples, providing a sensor-dependent gauge rain estimate that is assumed to include a TRMM equivalent sampling error. The sub-sampled gauge rain estimates are then used in conjunction with the monthly satellite and gauge (without sub- sampling) estimates to decouple retrieval and sampling errors. The computed mean sampling errors for the TMI and PR were 5.9% and 7.796, respectively, in good agreement with theoretical predictions. The PR year-to-year retrieval biases exceeded corresponding TMI biases, but it was found that these differences were partially due to negative TMI biases during cold months and positive TMI biases during warm months.

Description: Large errors in numerical weather prediction are often associated with explosive cyclogenesis. Most studes focus on the under-forecasting error, i.e. cases of rapidly developing cyclones which are poorly predicted in numerical models. However, the over-forecasting error (i.e., to predict an explosively developing cyclone which does not occur in reality) is a very common error that severely impacts the forecasting skill of all models and may also present economic costs if associated with operational forecasting. Unnecessary precautions taken by marine activities can result in severe economic loss. Moreover, frequent occurrence of over-forecasting can undermine the reliance on operational weather forecasting. Therefore, it is important to understand and reduce the prdctions of extreme weather associated with explosive cyclones which do not actually develop. In this study we choose a very prominent case of over-forecasting error in the northwestern Pacific. A 960 hPa cyclone develops in less than 24 hour in the 5-day forecast, with a deepening rate of about 30 hPa in one day. The cyclone is not versed in the analyses and is thus a case of severe over-forecasting. By assimilating AIRS data, the error is largely eliminated. By following the propagation of the anomaly that generates the spurious cyclone, it is found that a small mid-tropospheric geopotential height negative anomaly over the northern part of the Indian subcontinent in the initial conditions, propagates westward, is amplified by orography, and generates a very intense jet streak in the subtropical jet stream, with consequent explosive cyclogenesis over the Pacific. The AIRS assimilation eliminates this anomaly that may have been caused by erroneous upper-air data, and represents the jet stream more correctly. The energy associated with the jet is distributed over a much broader area and as a consequence a multiple, but much more moderate cyclogenesis is observed.

Description: The study employs a 108-year precipitation data record to identify statistically significant anomalies in rainfall downwind of the Phoenix urban region. The analysis reveals that during the monsoon season locations northeastern suburbs and exurbs of the Phoenix metropolitan area have experienced statistically significant increases in mean precipitation of 12 to 14 percent from a pre-urban (1895-1949) to post-urban (1950-2003) period. Mean and median post-urban precipitation totals in the anomaly region are significantly greater, in the statistical sense, than regions west of the city and in nearby mountainous regions of similar or greater topography. Further analysis of satellite-based rainfall totals for the summer of 2003 also reveal the existence of the anomaly region during a severe drought period. The anomaly can not simply be attributed to maximum topographic relief and is hypothesize to be related to urban-topographic interactions.

Description: The possible impact of an increase in global temperatures of about 2 C, as may be caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO2, is studied using historical satellite records of surface temperatures and sea ice from late 1970s to 2003. Updated satellite data indicate that the perennial ice continued to decline at an even faster rate of 9.2 % per decade than previously reported while concurrently, the surface temperatures have steadily been going up in most places except for some parts of northern Russia. Surface temperature is shown to be highly correlated with sea ice concentration in the seasonal sea ice regions. Results of regression analysis indicates that for every 1 C increase in temperature, the perennial ice area decreases by about 1.48 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers with the correlation coefficient being significant but only -0.57. Arctic warming is estimated to be about 0.46 C per decade on average in the Arctic but is shown to be off center with respect to the North Pole, and is prominent mainly in the Western Arctic and North America. The length of melt has been increasing by 13 days per decade over sea ice covered areas suggesting a thinning in the ice cover. The length of melt also increased by 5 days per decade over Greenland, 7 days per decade over the permafrost areas of North America but practically no change in Eurasia. Statistically derived projections indicate that the perennial sea ice cover would decline considerably in 2025, 2035, and 2060 when temperatures are predicted by models to reach the 2 C global increase.

Description: Ozone measurements from ozonesondes, AROTAL, DIAL, and POAM III instruments during the SOLVE-2/VINTERSOL period are composited in a time-varying, flow-following quasi-conservative (PV-6) coordinate space; the resulting composites from each instrument are mapped onto the other instruments locations and times. The mapped data are then used to intercompare data from the different instruments. Overall, the four data sets are found to be in good agreement. AROTAL shows somewhat lower values below 16 km, and DIAL has a positive bias at the upper limits of its altitude range. These intercomparisons are consistent with those obtained from more conventional near-coincident profiles, where available. Although the PV-theta mapping technique entails larger uncertainties of individual profile differences compared to direct near-coincident comparisons, the ability to include much larger numbers of comparisons can make this technique advantageous.

Description: Conventional wisdom is that lidar pulses do not significantly penetrate clouds having optical thickness exceeding about tau = 2, and that no returns are detectable from more than a shallow skin depth. Yet optically thicker clouds of tau much greater than 2 reflect a larger fraction of visible photons, and account for much of Earth s global average albedo. As cloud layer thickness grows, an increasing fraction of reflected photons are scattered multiple times within the cloud, and return from a diffuse concentric halo that grows around the incident pulse, increasing in horizontal area with layer physical thickness. The reflected halo is largely undetected by narrow field-of-view (FoV) receivers commonly used in lidar applications. THOR - Thickness from Off-beam Returns - is an airborne wide-angle detection system with multiple FoVs, capable of observing the diffuse halo, detecting wide-angle signal from which physical thickness of optically thick clouds can be retrieved. In this paper we describe the THOR system, demonstrate that the halo signal is stronger for thicker clouds, and validate physical thickness retrievals for clouds having z 〉 20, from NASA P-3B flights over the Department of Energy/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement/Southern Great Plains site, using the lidar, radar and other ancillary ground-based data.

Description: In this chapter, we describe the suite of Earth Observing System (EOS) Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra and Aqua snow and sea ice products. Global, daily products, developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, are archived and distributed through the National Snow and Ice Data Center at various resolutions and on different grids useful for different communities Snow products include binary snow cover, snow albedo, and in the near future, fraction of snow in a 5OO-m pixel. Sea ice products include ice extent determined with two different algorithms, and sea ice surface temperature. The algorithms used to develop these products are described. Both the snow and sea ice products, available since February 24,2000, are useful for modelers. Validation of the products is also discussed.

Description: We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the mesosphere significant inter-annual variations in the diurnal tide. Applying Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates near the equator a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m / s at 30 Ism. As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanism, the relative importance of the linearized advection terms are discussed that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide.

Description: Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) show that parameterized rain re-evaporation has a large impact on simulated precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific, especially on the configuration of the model s intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Weak re-evaporation leads t o the formation of a "double ITCZ" during the northern warm season. The double ITCZ is accompanied by strong coupling between precipitation and high-frequency vertical motion in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Strong reevaporation leads to a better overall agreement of simulated precipitation with observations. The model s double ITCZ bias is reduced. At the same time, correlation between high-frequency vertical motion in the PBL and precipitation is reduced. Experiments with modified physics suggest that evaporative cooling by rain near the PBL top weakens the coupling between precipitation and vertical motion. This may reduce the model s tendency to form double ITCZs. The strength of high-frequency vertical motions in the PBL was also reduced directly through the introduction of a diffusive cumulus momentum transport (DCMT) parameterization. The DCMT had a visible impact on simulated precipitation in the tropics, but did not reduce the model s double bias in all cases.

Description: The 1930s was characterized by a decade of rainfall deficits and high temperatures that desiccated much of the United States Great Plains. Numerous dust storms created one of the most severe environmental catastrophes in U.S. history and led to the popular characterization of much of the southern Great Plains as the Dust Bowl . In this study, we show that the origin of the drought was in the anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures that occurred during that decade. We further show that interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface were essential to the development of the severe drought conditions. The results are based on simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project general circulation model forced with observed and idealized sea surface temperatures. We contrast the 1930s drought with other major droughts of the 20th century, and speculate on the possibility of another Dust Bowl developing in the foreseeable future.

Description: Data from a single Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak, including three tornadoes that reached F3 intensity, within Tropical Storm Beryl s remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 h. spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 h. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes longer than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) tornado event. This event is easily the most intense TC tornado outbreak yet documented with WSR-88Ds. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined in Beryl s remnants. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, their flash rates were only weak to moderate, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. There is evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during the tornadoes, compared to 30-min periods before the tornadoes. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Contrary to the findings for flash rates, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl's nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones.

Description: Accurate, global profiling of wind velocity is highly desired by NASA, NOAA, the DOD/DOC/NASA Integrated Program Office (IPO)/NPOESS, DOD, and others for many applications such as validation and improvement of climate models, and improved weather prediction. The most promising technology to deliver this measurement from space is Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL). The NASA/NOAA Global Tropospheric Wind Sounder (GTWS) program is currently in the process of generating the science requirements for a space-based sensor. In order to optimize the process of defining science requirements, it is important for the scientific and user community to understand the nature of the wind measurements that DWL can make. These measurements are very different from those made by passive imaging sensors or by active radar sensors. The purpose of this paper is to convey the sampling characteristics and data product trade-offs of an orbiting DWL.

Description: Large-eddy simulation (LES) is a widely used technique in armospheric modeling research. In LES, large, unsteady, three dimensional structures are resolved and small structures that are not resolved on the computational grid are modeled. A filtering operation is applied to distinguish between resolved and unresolved scales. We present two near-surface models that have found use in atmospheric modeling. We also suggest a simpler eddy viscosity model that adopts Prandtl's mixing length model (Prandtl 1925) in the vicinity of the surface and blends with the dynamic Smagotinsky model (Germano et al, 1991) away from the surface. We evaluate the performance of these surface models by simulating a neutraly stratified atmospheric boundary layer.

Description: NASA has developed an Earth Observing System (EOS) consisting of a series of satellites designed to study global change from space. The EOS flagship is the EOS TERRA satellite, launched in December 1999, equipped with five unique sensors to monitor and study the Earth s heat budget and many of the key controlling variables governing the Earth's climate system. CLAMS, the Chesapeake Lighthouse and Aircraft Measurements for Satellites field campaign was conducted from NASA Wallops Flight Facility and successfully executed over the middle Atlantic eastern seaboard from July 10 August 2, 2001. CLAMS is primarily a shortwave closure experiment designed to validate and improve EOS TERRA satellite data products being derived from three sensors: CERES (Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer) and MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). CLAMS is jointly sponsored by the CERES, MISR and MODIS instrument teams and the NASA GEWEX Global Aerosol Climatology Project (GACP). CLAMS primary objectives are to validate satellite-based retrievals of aerosol properties and vertical profiles of radiative flux, temperature and water vapor. Central to CLAMS measurement strategy is the Chesapeake Lighthouse, a stable sea platform located in the Atlantic Ocean, 13 miles east of Virginia Beach near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and the site of an ongoing CERES Ocean Validation Experiment (COVE). Six research aircraft were deployed to make detailed measurements of the atmosphere and ocean surface in the vicinity of COVE, over the surrounding ocean, over nearby NOAA buoys and over a few land sites. The measurements are used to validate and provide ground truth for simultaneous products being derived from TERRA data, a key step toward an improved understanding and ability to predict changes in the Earth's climate. One of the two CERES instruments on-board TERRA was programmed for Rotating Azimuth Plane Scans (RAPS) during CLAMS, increasing the CERES coverage over COVE by a factor of 10. Nine coordinated aircraft missions and numerous additional sorties were flown under a variety of atmospheric conditions and aerosol loadings. On one golden day, July 17, all six aircraft flew coordinated patterns, vertically stacked between 100 ft and 65,000 ft over the COVE site as the TERRA satellite orbited overhead. A summary of CLAMS measurement campaign and a description of the platforms and measurements is given.

Description: This report describes preliminary results of work done by JHU/APL under contract to the NASA Glenn Research Center to support flight testing of the Universal Access Transceiver (UAT) data link as a medium for weather data exchange. It presents a high level architectural description of the use of UAT to meet the program objectives with an identification of issues associated with the use of this data link, including a high level definition of the changes required to UAT avionics and ground-based receivers and supporting ground infrastructure to support implementation of the recommended architecture with focus on the issues associated with these changes.

Description: Automated cloud detection and tracking is an important step in assessing global climate change via remote sensing. Cloud masks, which indicate whether individual pixels depict clouds, are included in many of the data products that are based on data acquired on- board earth satellites. Many cloud-mask algorithms have the form of decision trees, which employ sequential tests that scientists designed based on empirical astrophysics studies and astrophysics simulations. Limitations of existing cloud masks restrict our ability to accurately track changes in cloud patterns over time. In this study we explored the potential benefits of automatically-learned decision trees for detecting clouds from images acquired using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument on board the NOAA-14 weather satellite of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. We constructed three decision trees for a sample of 8km-daily AVHRR data from 2000 using a decision-tree learning procedure provided within MATLAB(R), and compared the accuracy of the decision trees to the accuracy of the cloud mask. We used ground observations collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy Systems S COOL project as the gold standard. For the sample data, the accuracy of automatically learned decision trees was greater than the accuracy of the cloud masks included in the AVHRR data product.

Description: Rainfall rate estimates from space-borne k&ents are generally accepted as reliable by a majority of the atmospheric science commu&y. One-of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRh4M) facility rain rate algorithms is based upon passive microwave observations fiom the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). Part I of this study describes improvements in the TMI algorithm that are required to introduce cloud latent heating and drying as additional algorithm products. Here, estimates of surface rain rate, convective proportion, and latent heating are evaluated using independent ground-based estimates and satellite products. Instantaneous, OP5resolution estimates of surface rain rate over ocean fiom the improved TMI algorithm are well correlated with independent radar estimates (r approx. 0.88 over the Tropics), but bias reduction is the most significant improvement over forerunning algorithms. The bias reduction is attributed to the greater breadth of cloud-resolving model simulations that support the improved algorithm, and the more consistent and specific convective/stratiform rain separation method utilized. The bias of monthly, 2.5 deg. -resolution estimates is similarly reduced, with comparable correlations to radar estimates. Although the amount of independent latent heating data are limited, TMI estimated latent heating profiles compare favorably with instantaneous estimates based upon dual-Doppler radar observations, and time series of surface rain rate and heating profiles are generally consistent with those derived from rawinsonde analyses. Still, some biases in profile shape are evident, and these may be resolved with: (a) additional contextual information brought to the estimation problem, and/or; (b) physically-consistent and representative databases supporting the algorithm. A model of the random error in instantaneous, 0.5 deg-resolution rain rate estimates appears to be consistent with the levels of error determined from TMI comparisons to collocated radar. Error model modifications for non-raining situations will be required, however. Sampling error appears to represent only a fraction of the total error in monthly, 2S0-resolution TMI estimates; the remaining error is attributed to physical inconsistency or non-representativeness of cloud-resolving model simulated profiles supporting the algorithm.

Description: The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the 40-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly two months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with two previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged mid-winter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over two standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (seven in the past six years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during six of the past seven years, with five having much lower than usual potential for PSC formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002 and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of five of the last seven years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every approximately 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.

Description: Based on an empirical analysis of measurements with the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) on the UARS spacecraft in the upper mesosphere (95 km), persistent and regular intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) with periods of about 2 to 4 months have recently been reported in the zonal-mean meridional winds. Similar oscillations have also been discussed independently in a modeling study, and they were attributed to wave-mean-flow interactions. The observed and modeled meridional wind ISOs were largely confined to low latitudes. We report here an analysis of concurrent temperature measurements on UARS, which produces oscillations similar to those seen in the meridional winds. Although the temperature oscillations are observed at lower altitudes (55 km), their phase variations with latitude are qualitatively consistent with the inferred properties seen in the meridional winds and thus provide independent evidence for the existence of ISOs in the mesosphere.

Description: Formation and evolution of cirrostratus in response to weak, uniform and constant synoptic forcing is simulated using a one-dimensional numerical model with explicit microphysics, in which the particle size distribution in each grid box is fully resolved. A series of tests of the model response to nucleation modes (homogeneous-freezing-only/heterogeneous nucleation) and heterogeneous nucleation parameters are performed. In the case studied here, nucleation is first activated in the prescribed moist layer. A continuous cloud-top nucleation zone with a depth depending on the vertical humidity gradient and one of the nucleation parameters is developed afterward. For the heterogeneous nucleation cases, intermittent nucleation zones in the mid-upper portion of the cloud form where the relative humidity is on the rise, because existent ice crystals do not uptake excess water vapor efficiently, and ice nuclei (IN) are available. Vertical resolution as fine as 1 m is required for realistic simulation of the homogeneous-freezing-only scenario, while the model resolution requirement is more relaxed in the cases where heterogeneous nucleation dominates. Bulk microphysical and optical properties are evaluated and compared. Ice particle number flux divergence, which is due to the vertical gradient of the gravity-induced particle sedimentation, is constantly and rapidly changing the local ice number concentration, even in the nucleation zone. When the depth of the nucleation zone is shallow, particle number concentration decreases rapidly as ice particles grow and sediment away from the nucleation zone. When the depth of the nucleation zone is large, a region of high ice number concentration can be sustained. The depth of nucleation zone is an important parameter to be considered in parametric treatments of ice cloud generation.

Description: The Goddard Lidar Observatory for Winds (GLOW) is a mobile direct detection Doppler lidar system which uses the double edge technique to measure the Doppler shift of the molecular backscattered laser signal at a wavelength of 355 nm. In the spring of 2002 GLOW was deployed to the western Oklahoma profiling site (36 deg 33.500 min. N, 100 deg. 36.371 min. W) to participate in the International H2O Project (IHOP). During the IHOP campaign over 240 hours of wind profiles were obtained with the GLOW lidar in support of a variety of scientific investigations.

Description: This study presents a systematic and quantitative analysis of the effect of inhomogeneous surface albedo on shortwave cloud absorption estimates. We use 3D radiative transfer modeling with gradually complex clouds over a simplified surface to calculate cloud absorption. We find that averaging surface albedo always underestimates cloud absorption, and thus accounting for surface heterogeneity always enhances cloud absorption. However, the impact on cloud absorption estimates is not enough to explain the discrepancy between measured and model calculated shortwave cloud absorptions.

Description: High-resolution mesoscale model simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event were performed to test the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation. In this flash flood event, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) produced over 340 mm of rain in roughly 9 hours in some locations. Two different types of model initialization were employed: 1) NCEP global reanalysis with 2.5-degree grid spacing and 12-hour temporal resolution, and 2) Eta reanalysis with 40- km grid spacing and $hour temporal resolution. In addition, two different land surface treatments were considered. A simple land scheme. (SLAB) keeps soil moisture fixed at initial values throughout the simulation, while a more sophisticated land model (PLACE) allows for r interactive feedback. Simulations with high-resolution Eta model initialization show considerable improvement in the intensity of precipitation due to the presence in the initialization of a residual mesoscale convective vortex (hlCV) from a previous MCS. Simulations with the PLACE land model show improved location of heavy precipitation. Since soil moisture can vary over time in the PLACE model, surface energy fluxes exhibit strong spatial gradients. These surface energy flux gradients help produce a strong low-level jet (LLJ) in the correct location. The LLJ then interacts with the cold outflow boundary of the MCS to produce new convective cells. The simulation with both high-resolution model initialization and time-varying soil moisture test reproduces the intensity and location of observed rainfall.

Description: The influence of hurricane-ocean coupling on intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) is investigated through idealized numerical experiments using a coupled hurricane-ocean model. The focus is placed on how air-sea interaction affects TC tracks and intensity. It is found that the symmetric sea surface temperature (SST) cooling is primarily responsible for the TC weakening in the coupled experiments because the induced asymmetric circulation associated with the asymmetric SST anomalies is weak and shallow. The track difference between the coupled and fixed SST experiments is generally small because of the competing processes. One is associated with the modified TC asymmetries. The asymmetric SST anomalies - weaken the surface fluxes in the rear and enhance the fluxes in the front. As a result, the enhanced diabatic heating is located on the southern side for a westward-moving TC, tending to shift the TC southward. The symmetric SST anomalies weakens the TC intensity and thus the dymmetrization process, leading to more prominent TC asymmetries. The other is associated with the weakening of the beta drift resulting from the weakening of the TC outer strength. In the coupled experiment, the weakening of the beta drift leads to a more northward shift. By adjusting the vortex outer strength of the initial vortices, the beta drift can vary while the effect of air-sea interaction changes little. Two types of track differences simulated in the previous numerical studies are obtained.

Description: The association between tall precipitation and tropical cyclone intensification may have implications for the difficult task of forecasting the destructive potential of these storms. We propose a novel way to use radar-observed rain height to help predict tropical cyclone intensity. Then, we adapt this technique for use on the much more plentiful data from infrared and microwave instruments.

Description: Abstract: Since 1998 the Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) project has collected more than 2000 ozone profiles from a dozen tropical and subtropical sites using balloon-borne electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozonesondes. The data (with accompanying pressure-temperature-humidity soundings) are archived. Analysis of ozonesonde imprecision within the SHADOZ dataset revealed that variations in ozonesonde technique could lead to station-to-station biases in the measurements. In this paper imprecisions and accuracy in the SHADOZ dataset are examined in light of new data. When SHADOZ total ozone column amounts are compared to version 8 TOMS (2004 release), discrepancies between sonde and satellite datasets decline 1-2 percentage points on average, compared to version 7 TOMS. Variability among stations is evaluated using total ozone normalized to TOMS and results of laboratory tests on ozonesondes (JOSE-2O00, Julich Ozonesonde Intercomparison Experiment). Ozone deviations from a standard instrument in the JOSE flight simulation chamber resemble those of SHADOZ station data relative to a SHADOZ-defined climatological reference. Certain systematic variations in SHADOZ ozone profiles are accounted for by differences in solution composition, data processing and instrument (manufacturer). Instrument bias leads to a greater ozone measurement above 25 km over Nairobi and to lower total column ozone at three Pacific sites compared to other SHADOZ stations at 0-20 deg.S.

Description: Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and inter-decadal timescales. Results based on Singular Value Decomposition analyses (SVD) show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centers of actions for each season, which are co-varying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centered in southeastern China and northern China, respectively, are linked to an ENSO-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850-hPa winds and 700-Wa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer timescale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean; the inter-decadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, the North Pacific mode. The later is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and inter-decadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean.

Description: A short course on off-beam cloud lidar is given. Specific topics addressed include: motivation and goal of off-beam cloud lidar; diffusion physics; numeric amalysis; and validity of the diffusion approximation. A demo of the process is included.

Description: The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (105-106 Myr ago). Examples include gullies [1], cold-based tropical glaciers [2], paleolakes [3], and youthful near-surface ice [4]. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

Description: Recent results from gamma-ray and neutron spectrometers on Mars Odyssey indicate the presence of a hydrogen-rich layer tens of centimeters thick in the uppermost meter in high latitudes (〉60 ) on Mars. This hydrogen-rich layer correlates to regions of ice stability. Thus, the subsurface hydrogen is thought to be water ice constituting 35+/- 15% by weight near the north and south polar regions. We refine the location of subsurface ice deposits at a 〈 km scale by combining existing spectroscopy data with surface features indicative of subsurface ice. A positive correlation between spectroscopy data and geomorphic ice indicators has been previously suggested for high latitudes. Here we expand the comparative study to northern mid latitudes (30 deg.N- 65 deg.N).

Description: The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (10(exp 5) - 10(exp 6) Myr ago). Examples include gullies, cold-based tropical glaciers, paleolakes, and youthful near-surface ice. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

Description: During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity, areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%, and remaining 97.6%. The set of 'weakest / smallest' features comprises 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate 0.7 fl/min. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl/min; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85-GHz) and 69 K (37- GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335,000 sq km and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10(exp 12) kg of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations, seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land / Ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and Ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms, and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Description: Simultaneous measurement of the radiation and cloud fields on a global basis is a key component in the effort to understand and model the interaction between clouds and radiation at the top of the atmosphere, at the surface, and within the atmosphere. The NASA Clouds and Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Project, begun in 1998, is meeting this need. Broadband shortwave (SW) and longwave radiance measurements taken by the CERES scanners at resolutions between 10 and 20 km on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Terra, and Aqua satellites are matched to simultaneous retrievals of cloud height, phase, particle size, water path, and optical depth OD from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua. Besides aiding the interpretation of the broadband radiances, the CERES cloud properties are valuable for understanding cloud variations at a variety of scales. In this paper, the resulting CERES cloud data taken to date are averaged at several temporal scales to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the cloud properties on a global scale at a 1 resolution.

Description: A taxonomy of tropical convective vertical structures is constructed through cluster analysis of three years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM] Precipitation Radar [PR] vertical profiles, their surface rainfall and associated radar-based classifiers (convective/stratiform and bright band existence). archetypal profile types are identified. These include nine convective types, divided into warm, "just cold", midlevel, deep and deep/wet-growth categories, seven stratiform types, divided into warm, "just cold", midlevel and deep categories, three "mixed" types (deep profiles with low reflectivity aloft), and six fragment types (non-precipitating anvils and sheared deep convective profiles). The taxonomy allows for description of any storm or local Convective spectrum by the nine primary convective and stratiform types, a significant reduction over full three-dimensional radar data which nonetheless retains vertical structure information. The analysis provides a quasi-independent corroboration of the TRMM 2A23 convective/stratiform classification. The global frequency of occurrence and contribution to rainfall for the profile types is presented, demonstrating primary rainfall contribution by midlevel glaciated convection and similar depth decaying/stratiform stages. Close correspondence is found between deep convective profile frequency and annualized lightning production. Passive microwave and lightning properties associated with the profiles are reported, and cases presented illustrating known nonuniqueness problems with 85 and 37 GHz brightness temperature pairs (the same pairs corresponding to both convective and stratiform profiles), and how supplementary lightning information might be used to mitigate these problems.

Description: In situ measurements of water vapor concentration made during the CRYSTAL-FACE and Pre-AVE missions indicate higher than expected supersaturations in both clear and cloudy air near the cold tropical tropopause: (1) steady-state ice supersaturations of 20-30% were measured within cirrus at T 〈 200 K; (2) supersaturations exceeding 100% (near water saturation) were observed under cloud-free conditions near 187 K. The in-cloud measurements challenge the conventional belief that any water vapor in excess of ice saturation should be depleted by crystal growth given sufficient time. The high clear-sky supersaturations imply that thresholds for ice nucleation due to homogeneous freezing of aerosols (or any other mechanism) are much higher than those inferred from laboratory measurements. We will use simulations of Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) transport and cloud formation throughout the tropics to show that these effects have important implications for TTL cloud frequency and freeze-drying of air crossing the tropical tropopause cold trap.

Description: Asian dust typically originates in desert areas far from polluted urban regions. During transport, dust layers can interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols from heavily polluted urban areas. Added to the complex effects of clouds and natural marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from the source. Thus, understanding the unique temporal and spatial variations of Asian aerosols is of special importance in regional-to-global climate issues such as radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle, and primary biological productivity in the mid-Pacific Ocean. During ACE-Asia campaign, we have acquired ground- based (temporal) and satellite (spatial) measurements to infer aerosol physical/optical/radiative properties, column precipitable water amount, and surface reflectivity over this region. The inclusion of flux measurements permits the determination of aerosol radiative flux in addition to measurements of loading and optical depth. At the time of the Terra/MODIS, SeaWiFS, TOMS and other satellite overpasses, these ground-based observations can provide valuable data to compare with satellite retrievals over land. In this paper, we will demonstrate new capability of the Deep Blue algorithm to track the evolution of the Asian dust storm from sources to sinks. Although there are large areas often covered by clouds in the dust season in East Asia, this algorithm is able to distinguish heavy dust from clouds over the entire regions. Examination of the retrieved daily maps of dust plumes over East Asia clearly identifies the sources contributing to the dust loading in the atmosphe~~. We have compared the satellite retrieved aerosol optical thickness to the ground-based measurements and obtained a reasonable agreement between these two. Our results also indicate that there is a large difference in the retrieved value of spectral single scattering albedo of windblown dust between different sources in East Asia.

Description: Prior parameter space studies of simulated deep convection are extended to embrace variations in the ambient temperature at the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL). Within the context of the parameter space study design, changes in LCL temperature are roughly equivalent to changes in the ambient precipitable water. Two series of simulations are conducted, one with a warm LCL that is associated with approximately 60 mm of precipitable water, and another with LCL temperatures 8 C cooler, so that PW is reduced to roughly 30 mm. The sets of simulations include tests of the impact of changes in the buoyancy and shear profile shapes and of changes in mixed and moist layer depths, all of which have been shown to be important in prior work. Simulations discussed here feature values of bulk convective available potential energy (CAPE) of 800, 2000, or 3200 Joules per kilogram, and a single semicircular hodograph having radius of 12 meters per second, but with variable vertical shear. The simulations reveal a consistent trend toward stronger peak updraft speeds for the cooler LCL temperature (reduced PW) cases, if all other environmental parameters are held constant. Roughly comparable increases in updraft speeds are noted for all combinations of LCL and level of free convection heights. These increases in updraft strength are evidently the result of both the reduction of condensate loading aloft and the lower altitudes at which the latent heat release by freezing and deposition commences in the cooler, low-PW environments. Because the latent heat of fusion adds relatively more energy to the updrafts at low CAPE, those storms show more strengthening at low PW than do the larger CAPE storms. As expected, maximum storm precipitation rates tend to diminish as PW is decreased, but only slightly, and by amounts not proportionate to the decrease in PW. The low-PW cases thus actually feature larger environment-relative precipitation efficiency than do the high-PW cases. In addition, more hail reaches the surface in the low-PW cases because of reduced melting in the cooler environments.

Description: A hierarchy of third-order turbulence closure models are used to simulate boundary-layer cumuli in this study. An unrealistically strong liquid-water oscillation (LWO) is found in the fully prognostic model, which predicts all third moments. The LWO propagates from cloud base to cloud top with a speed of 1 m/s. The period of the oscillation is about 1000 s. Liquid-water buoyancy terms in the third-moment equations contribute to the LWO. The LWO mainly affects the vertical profiles of cloud fraction, mean liquid-water mixing ratio and the fluxes of liquid-water potential temperature and total water, but has less impact on the vertical profiles of other second-moments and third-moments. In order to minimize the LWO, a moderate large diffusion coefficient and a large turbulent dissipation at its originating level are needed. However, this approach distorts the vertical distributions of cloud fraction and liquid-water mixing ratio. A better approach is to parameterize liquid-water buoyancy more reasonably. A minimally prognostic model, which diagnoses all third moments except for vertical velocity, is shown to produce better results, compared to a fully prognostic model.

Description: Empirical angular distribution models for estimating top-of-atmosphere shortwave irradiances from radiance measurements over permanent snow, fresh snow and sea ice are developed using CERES measurements on Terra. Permanent snow angular distribution models depend on cloud fraction, cloud optical thickness, and snow brightness. Fresh snow and sea ice angular distribution models depend on snow and sea ice fraction, cloud fraction, cloud optical thickness, and snow and ice brightness. These classifications lead to 10 scene types for permanent snow and 25 scene types for fresh snow and sea ice. The average radiance over clear-sky permanent snow is more isotropic with satellite viewing geometry than that over overcast permanent snow. On average, the albedo of clear-sky permanent snow varies from 0.65 to 0.68 for solar zenith angles between 60$logical and\circ$ and 80 deg, while the corresponding albedo of overcast scenes varies from 0.70 to 0.73. Clear-sky permanent snow albedos over Antarctica estimated from two independent angular distribution models are consistent to within 0.6%, on average. Despite significant variability in sea ice optical properties with season, the estimated mean relative albedo error is -1 % for very dark sea ice and 0.1% for very bright sea ice when albedos derived from different viewing angles are averaged. The estimated regional root-mean-square (RMS) relative albedo error is 5.6% and 2.6% when the sea ice angular distribution models are applied to a region that contains very dark and very bright sea ice, respectively. Similarly, the estimated relative albedo bias error for fresh snow is -0.1% for very dark snow.

Description: We have carried out an experiment with the finite volume general circulation model (FVGCM). This experiment consisted of two different imposed changes in the climatological ozone fields assumed in the radiation code. for conditions with no significant ozone hole. This distribution was obtained from a 50-year simulation of the full stratospheric ozone chemistry, with a time-dependent chlorine loading, done with our off-line chemical transport model (CTM). Three years (1978-1980) of this simulation were averaged to form a monthly, zonal-mean ozone distribution that was used in the 20-year integration of the FVGCM for "unperturbed" conditions. The second 20-year GCM integration included a fully-developed ozone hole. This ozone distribution was from three years, 1998-2000, from the same CTM simulation. The goal of this work is to determine the coupled response of the chemistry and dynamics of the stratosphere. These experiments are the first step in understanding the coupled response. An important initial question concerns the significance of the signals: if 20-year integrations turn out to be too short, the runs will be extended.

Description: A decade-scale record of Northern Hemisphere snow cover has been available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) and has been reconstructed and validated by Rutgers University following adjustments for inconsistencies that were discovered in the early years of the data set. This record provides weekly, monthly (and, in recent years, daily) snow cover from 1966 to the present for the Northern Hemisphere. With the December 1999 launch of NASA's Earth observing System (EOS) Terra satellite, snow maps are being produced globally, using automated algorithms, on a daily, weekly and monthly basis from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The resolution of the MODIS monthly snow maps (0.05deg or about 5 km) is an improvement over that of the NESDIS-derived monthly snow maps (〉approx.10 km) the maps, it is necessary to study the datasets carefully to determine if it is possible to merge the datasets into a continuous record. The months in which data are available for both the NESDIS and MODIS maps (March 2000 to the present) will be compared quantitatively to analyze differences in North American and Eurasian snow cover. Results from the NESDIS monthly maps show that for North America (including all 12 months), there is a trend toward slightly less snow cover in each succeeding decade. Interannual snow-cover extent has varied significantly since 2000 as seen in both the NESDIS and MODIS maps. As the length of the satellite record increases through the MODIS era, and into the National Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) era, it should become easier to identify trends in areal extent of snow cover, if present, that may have climatic significance. Thus it is necessary to analyze the validity of merging the NESDIS and MODIS, and, in the future, the NPOESS datasets for determination of long-term continuity in measurement of Northern Hemisphere snow cover.

Description: The Cloud Slicing technique has emerged as a powerful tool for the study of ozone in the upper troposphere. In this technique one looks at the variation with cloud height of the above-cloud column ozone derived from the backscattered ultraviolet instruments, such as TOMS, to determine the ozone mixing ratio. For this technique to work properly one needs an instrument with relatively good horizontal resolution with very good signal to noise in measuring above-cloud column ozone. In addition, one needs the (radiatively) effective cloud pressure rather than the cloud-top pressure, for the ultraviolet photons received by a satellite instrument are scattered from inside the cloud rather than from the top. For this study we use data from the OMI sensor, which was recently launched on the EOS Aura satellite. OMI is a W-Visible backscattering instrument with a nadir pixel size of 13 x 24 km. The effective cloud pressure is derived from a new algorithm based on Rotational Raman Scattering and O2-O2, absorption in the 340-400 nm band of OMI.

Description: Atmospheric chaos severely limits the predictability of precipitation on subseasonal to interannual timescales. Hope for accurate long-term precipitation forecasts lies with simulating atmospheric response to components of the Earth system, such as the ocean, that can be predicted beyond a couple of weeks. Indeed, seasonal forecasts centers now rely heavily on forecasts of ocean circulation. Soil moisture, another slow component of the Earth system, is relatively ignored by the operational seasonal forecasting community. It is starting, however, to garner more attention. Soil moisture anomalies can persist for months. Because these anomalies can have a strong impact on evaporation and other surface energy fluxes, and because the atmosphere may respond consistently to anomalies in the surface fluxes, an accurate soil moisture initialization in a forecast system has the potential to provide additional forecast skill. This potential has motivated a number of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) studies of soil moisture and its contribution to variability in the climate system. Some of these studies even suggest that in continental midlatitudes during summer, oceanic impacts on precipitation are quite small relative to soil moisture impacts. The model results, though, are strongly model-dependent, with some models showing large impacts and others showing almost none at all. A validation of the model results with observations thus naturally suggests itself, but this is exceedingly difficult. The necessary contemporaneous soil moisture, evaporation, and precipitation measurements at the large scale are virtually non-existent, and even if they did exist, showing statistically that soil moisture affects rainfall would be difficult because the other direction of causality - wherein rainfall affects soil moisture - is unquestionably active and is almost certainly dominant. Nevertheless, joint analyses of observations and AGCM results do reveal some suggestions of land-atmosphere feedback in the observational record, suggestions that soil moisture can affect precipitation over seasonal timescales and across certain large continental areas. The strength of this observed feedback in nature is not large but is still significant enough to be potentially useful, e.g., for forecasts. This talk will address all of these issues. It will begin with a brief overview of land surface modeling in atmospheric models but will then focus on recent research - using both observations and models - into the impact of land surface processes on variability in the climate system.

Description: Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D, see a brief review by Tao 2003). Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, at NOAA GFDL, at the U. K. Met. Office, at Colorado State University and at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Tao 2003). At Goddard, a 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE (December 19-27, 1992), GATE (September 1-7, 1974), SCSMEX (June 2-11, 1998), ARM (June 26-30, 1997) and KWAJEX (August 7-13, August 18-21, and August 29-September 12, 1999) using a 512 km domain (with 2-kilometer resolution). The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are similar between the 2D and 3D GCE model simulations. However, there are difference in radiation, surface fluxes and precipitation characteristics. The 2D GCE model was used to perform a long-term integration on ARM/GCSS case 4 (22 days at the ARM southern Great Plains site in March 2000). Preliminary results showed a large temperature bias in the upper troposphere that had not been seen in previous tropical cases. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to determine the sensitivities to model configuration (ie., 2D in west-east, south-north or 3D), (2) to identify the differences and similarities in the organization and entrainment rates of convection between 2D- and 3D-simulated ARM cloud systems, and (3) assess the impact of upper tropospheric forcing on tropical and ARM case 4 cases.

Description: The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Program is an international cooperative effort whose objectives are to (a) obtain increased understanding of rainfall processes, and (b) make frequent rainfall measurements on a global basis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States and the Japanese Aviation and Exploration Agency (JAXA) have entered into a cooperative agreement for the formulation and development of GPM. This agreement is a continuation of the partnership that developed the highly successful Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) that was launched in November 1997; this mission continues to provide valuable scientific and meteorological information on rainfall and the associated processes. International collaboration on GPM from other space agencies has been solicited, and discussions regarding their participation are currently in progress. NASA has taken lead responsibility for the planning and formulation of GPM, Key elements of the Program to be provided by NASA include a Core satellite bus instrumented with a multi-channel microwave radiometer, a Ground Validation System and a ground-based Precipitation Processing System (PPS). JAXA will provide a Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar for installation on the Core satellite and launch services. Other United States agencies and international partners may participate in a number of ways, such as providing rainfall measurements obtained from their own national space-borne platforms, providing local rainfall measurements to support the ground validation activities, or providing hardware or launch services for GPM constellation spacecraft. This paper will present an overview of the current planning for the GPM Program, and discuss in more detail the status of the lead author's primary responsibility, development and acquisition of the GPM Microwave Imager.

Description: The NASA Cold Land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX-1) was designed to provide microwave remote sensing observations and ground truth for studies of snow and frozen ground remote sensing, particularly issues related to scaling. CLPX-1 was conducted in the spring of 2003 in Colorado, USA. Initial forward model validation work is concentrating on the Local-Scale Observation Site (LSOS), a 0.8 ha study site consisting of open meadows separated by trees where the most detailed measurements were made of snow depth and temperature, density, and grain size profiles. This paper will focus on the ability of forward Dense Medium Radiative Transfer (DMRT) modelling, combined with snowpack measurements to reproduce the radiobrightness signatures observed by the University of Michigan s Truck-Mounted Radiometer System at 19 and 37 GHz during the 4th Intensive Observing Period (IOP4) in March, 2003. Unlike the earlier IOP3, conditions during IOP4 include both wet and dry periods, providing a valuable test of DMRT model performance. Observations of upwelling and downwelling tree radiobrightness will be used to formulate a simple model for the effect of trees within the field of view. In addition, a comparison will be made for the one day of coincident observations by the University of Tokyo s Ground- Based Microwave Radiometer-7 (GBMR-7). These analyses will help guide the choice of future snow retrieval algorithms and the design of future Cold Lands observing systems.

Description: Validation of satellite data remains a high priority for the construction of climate data sets. Traditionally ground based measurements have provided the primary comparison data for validation. For some atmospheric parameters such as ozone, a thoroughly validated satellite data record can be used to validate a new instrument s data product in addition to using ground based data. Comparing validated data with new satellite data has several advantages; availability of much more data, which will improve precision, larger geographical coverage, and the footprints are closer in size, which removes uncertainty due to different observed atmospheric volumes. To demonstrate the applicability and some limitations of this technique, observations from the newly launched SCIAMACHY instrument were compared with the NOM-16 SBW/2 and ERS-2 GOME instruments. The SBW/2 data had all ready undergone validation by comparing to the total ozone ground network. Overall the SCIAMACHY data were found to low by 3% with respect to satellite data and 1% low with respect to ground station data. There appears to be seasonal and or solar zenith angle dependences in the comparisons with SBW/2 where differences increase with higher solar zenith angles. It is known that accuracies in both satellite and ground based total ozone algorithms decrease at high solar zenith angles. There is a strong need for more accurate measurement from and the ground under these conditions. At the present time SCIAMACHY data are limited and longer data set with more coverage in both hemispheres is needed to unravel the cause of these differences.

Description: The Cold Land Processes Pathfinder (CLPP) mission concept has been developed to measure hydrologic properties of the Cryosphere. The science driver for the mission is to understand the variability of global water cycling and its consequences for local water resources and climate. The CLPP mission is designed to reduce uncertainty of cold-region precipitation, storage, controls, and feedbacks to the land, atmosphere, and ocean, which in turn will improve prediction of future changes in water cycle dynamics. It will provide the first high-resolution global measurements of Earth's changing snow conditions to: 1) quantify the variability of processes in cold regions, 2) improve understanding of past changes, and 3) enable breakthroughs in prediction of future water resources, weather, and climate. The CLPP concept consists of active (C- and Ku-band) and passive (K- and Ka-band) microwave sensors (with high and moderate spatial resolution respectively) to observe snow water equivalent and snow wetness at local process scales. The CLPP global sampling framework provides necessary capability to relate observed local scale snow characteristics to atmospheric forcings, improve predictive models operating at multiple scales, and to tie the short-term CLPP record to the long-term low-resolution remote sensing climate record of global snow properties.

Description: Clouds developing in a polluted environment have more numerous, smaller cloud droplets that can increase the cloud lifetime and liquid water content. Such changes in the cloud droplet properties may suppress low precipitation allowing development of a stronger convection and higher freezing level. Delaying the washout of the cloud water (and aerosol), and the stronger convection will result in higher clouds with longer life time and larger anvils. We show these effects by using large statistics of the new, 1km resolution data from MODIS on the Terra satellite. We isolate the aerosol effects from meteorology by regression and showing that aerosol microphysical effects increases cloud fraction by average of 30 presents for all cloud types and increases convective cloud top pressure by average of 35mb. We analyze the aerosol cloud interaction separately for high pressure trade wind cloud systems and separately for deep convective cloud systems. The resultant aerosol radiative effect on climate for the high pressure cloud system is: -10 to -13 W/sq m at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and -11 to -14 W/sq m at the surface. For deeper convective clouds the forcing is: -4 to -5 W/sq m at the TOA and -6 to -7 W/sq m at the surface.

Description: Analysis of MODIS data of aerosol and clouds over the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific and Indian Ocean show that the different types of aerosol affect not only the cloud microphysics but also the cloud fraction to a large extend. Analysis of detailed measurements and multiple regression analysis will be shown.

Description: Remote sensing of cloud and aerosol properties from space is reviewed for present and planned international satellite sensors. Techniques that are being used to enhance our ability to characterize the global distribution of cloud and aerosol properties include well-calibrated multispectral radiometers that rely on visible, near-infrared, and thermal infrared channels, sometimes including polarization as well. The availability of thermal channels to aid in cloud screening for aerosol properties is an important additional piece of information that has not always been incorporated into sensor designs. In this paper, we describe the radiative properties of clouds as currently determined from satellites (cloud fraction, optical thickness, cloud top pressure, and cloud effective radius), and highlight the global and regional cloud microphysical properties currently available for assessing climate variability and forcing. In addition, we will frustrate the radiative and microphysical properties of aerosol particles that are currently available from space-based observations, as well as enhancements to aerosol remote sensing over bright-reflecting surfaces that is anticipated in the next couple of years. Finally, we will describe the aerosol optical and radiative properties available from the globally distributed AERONET network of ground-based sun-sky radiometers.

Description: The Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) has been run in 50 year simulations with the: 1) 1949-1999 Hadley Centre sea surface temperatures (SST), and 2) a fixed annual cycle of SSTs. In this presentation we first show that the 1949-1999 FVGCM simulation produces a very credible stratosphere in comparison to an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climatology. In particular, the northern hemisphere has numerous major and minor stratospheric warming, while the southern hemisphere has only a few over the 50-year simulation. During the northern hemisphere winter, temperatures are both warmer in the lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is weaker than is found in the mid-winter southern hemisphere. Mean temperature differences in the lower stratosphere are shown to be small (less than 2 K), and planetary wave forcing is found to be very consistent with the climatology. We then will show the differences between our varying SST simulation and the fixed SST simulation in both the dynamics and in two parameterized trace gases (ozone and methane). In general, differences are found to be small, with subtle changes in planetary wave forcing that lead to reduced temperatures in the SH and increased temperatures in the NH.

Description: It is generally recognized that Stratospheric Aerosols and Gas Experiment (SAGE) stratospheric ozone data have become a standard long-record reference field for comparison with other stratospheric ozone measurements. This study demonstrates that stratospheric column ozone (SCO) derived from total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) Cloud Slicing may be used to supplement SAGE data as a stand-alone long- record reference field in the tropics extending to middle and high latitudes over the Pacific. Comparisons of SAGE I1 version 6.2 SCO and TOMS version 8 Cloud Slicing SCO for 1984-2003 exhibit remarkable agreement in monthly ensemble means to within 1-3 DU (1 - 1.5% of SCO) despite being independently-calibrated measurements. An important component of our study is to incorporate these column ozone measurements to investigate long-term trends for the period 1979-2003. Our study includes Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBW) version 8 measurements of upper stratospheric column ozone (i.e., zero to 32 hPa column ozone) to characterize seasonal cycles and seasonal trends in this region, as well as the lower stratosphere and troposphere when combined with TOMS SCO and total column ozone. The trend analyses suggest that most ozone reduction in the atmosphere since 1979 in mid-to-high latitudes has occurred in the Lower stratosphere below approx. 25 km. The delineation of upper and lower stratospheric column ozone indicate that trends in the upper stratosphere during the latter half of the 1979-2003 period have reduced to near zero globally, while trends in the lower stratosphere have become larger by approx. 5 DU decade%om the tropics extending to mid-latitudes in both hemispheres. For TCO, the trend analyses suggest moderate increases over the 25-year time record in the extra-tropics of both hemispheres of around 4-6 DU (Northern Hemisphere) and 6-8 DU (Southern Hemisphere).

Description: MODIS data from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites are being sent to several NWS Forecast Offices in real time to assist in the preparation of short-term weather forecasts. The MODIS imagery, in channels similar to those of the planned GOES-R instrument, is reformatted, sectorized, and ingested directly in Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). A number of products derived from the imagery are available in near real-time as well. This transition activity, from research to operations, serves to prepare forecasters for the next generation satellite observing capabilities through real-time, hands on applications to their forecast problems. The presentation will provide examples of this transition activity and a preliminary assessment on the utility of several of the MODIS products for improving short-term forecasts.

Description: There are significant gaps between the observations, models, and decision support tools that make use of new data. These challenges include: 1) Decreasing the time to incorporate new satellite data into operational forecast assimilation systems, 2) Blending in-situ and satellite observing systems to produce the most accurate and comprehensive data products and assessments, 3) Accelerating the transition from research to applications through national test beds, field campaigns, and pilot demonstrations, and 4) Developing the partnerships and organizational structures to effectively transition new technology into operations. At the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center in Huntsville, Alabama, a NASA-NOAA-University collaboration has been developed to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth science observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. The SPoRT Center research focus is to improve forecasts through new observation capability and the regional prediction objectives of the US Weather Research Program dealing with 0-1 day forecast issues such as convective initiation and 24-hr quantitative precipitation forecasting. The near real-time availability of high-resolution experimental products of the atmosphere, land, and ocean from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Infrared Spectroradiometer (AIRS), and lightning mapping systems provide an opportunity for science and algorithm risk reduction, and for application assessment prior to planned observations from the next generation of operational low Earth orbiting and geostationary Earth orbiting satellites. This paper describes the process for the transition of experimental products into forecast operations, current products undergoing assessment by forecasters, and plans for the future. The SPoRT Web page is at (http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/sport).

Description: Quasi-global precipitation analyses at fine time scales (3-hr) are described. TRMM observations (radar and passive microwave) are used to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites instruments, including AMSR and AMSU) and geosynchronous IR observations. The individual data sets are then merged using a priority order based on quality to form the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA). Raingauge information is used to help constrain the satellite-based estimates over land. The TRMM standard research product (Version 6 3B-42 of the TRMM products) will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) in 2004. The real-time version of this merged product has been produced over the past two years and is available on the U.S. TRMM web site (trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) at 0.25" latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 5O"N-5O0S. Validation of daily totals indicates good results, with limitations noted in mid-latitude winter over land and regions of shallow, orographic precipitation. Various applications of these estimates are described, including: 1) detecting potential floods in near real-time; 2) analyzing Indian Ocean precipitation variations related to the initiation of El Nino; 3) determining characteristics of the African monsoon; and 4) analysis of diurnal variations.

Description: The Environments Group at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Marshall Space Flight Center monitors the winds aloft above Kennedy Space Center (KSC) in support of the Space Shuttle Program day-of-launch operations. Assessment of tropospheric winds is used to support the ascent phase of launch. Three systems at KSC are used to generate independent tropospheric wind profiles prior to launch; 1) high resolution jimsphere balloon system, 2) 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP) and 3) low resolution radiosonde system. All independent sources are compared against each other for accuracy. To assess spatial and temporal wind variability during launch countdown each jimsphere profile is compared against a design wind database to ensure wind change does not violate wind change criteria.

Description: Satellite observations of lightning flash rate have been merged with proximal surface station thermodynamic observations toward improving the understanding of the response of the updraft and lightning activity in the tropical atmosphere to temperature. The tropical results have led in turn to an examination of thermodynamic climatology over the continental United States in summertime and its comparison with exceptional electrical conditions documented in earlier studies. The tropical and mid-latitude results taken together support an important role for cloud base height in regulating the transfer of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) to updraft kinetic energy in thunderstorms. In the tropics, cloud base height is dominated by the dry bulb temperature over the wet bulb temperature as the lightning-regulating temperature in regions characterized by moist convection. In the extratropics, an elevated cloud base height may enable larger cloud water concentrations in the mixed phase region, a favorable condition for the positive charging of large ice particles that may result in thunderclouds with a reversed polarity of the main cloud dipole. The combined requirements of instability and cloud base height serve to confine the region of superlative electrification to the vicinity of the ridge in moist entropy in the western Great Plains.

Description: The North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array became operational in November 2001 as a principal component of a severe weather test bed to infuse new science and technology into the short-term forecasting of severe and hazardous weather, principally within nearby National Weather Service forecast offices. Since the installation of the LMA, it has measured the total lightning activity of a large number of severe weather events, including three supercell tornado outbreaks, two supercell hailstorm events, and numerous microburst-producing storms and ordinary non-severe thunderstorms. The key components of evolving storm morphology examined are the time rate-of-change (temporal trending) of storm convective and precipitation characteristics that can be diagnosed in real-time using NEXRAD WSR-88D Doppler radar (echo growth and decay, precipitation structures and velocity features, outflow boundaries), LMA (total lightning flash rate and its trend) and National Lightning Detection Network (cloud-to- ground lightning, its polarity and trends). For example, in a transitional season supercell tornado outbreak, peak total flash rates for typical supercells in Tennessee reached 70-100/min, and increases in the total flash rate occurred during storm intensification as much as 20-25 min prior to at least some of the tornadoes. The most intense total flash rate measured during this outbreak (over 800 flashes/min) occurred in a storm in Alabama. In the case of a severe summertime pulse thunderstorm in North Alabama, the peak total flash rate reached 300/min, with a strong increase in total lightning evident some 9 min before damaging winds were observed at the surface. In this paper we provide a sampling of LMA observations and products during severe weather events to illustrate the capability of the system, and discuss the prospects for improving the short-term forecasting of convective weather using total lightning data.

Description: Ozone profile data are now available from a series of BUV instruments - SBUV on Nimbus 7 and SBW/2 instruments on NOAA 9, NOAA 11, and NOAA 16. The data have been processed through the new version 8 algorithm, which is designed to be more accurate and, more importantly, to reduce the influence of the a priori on ozone trends. As a part of the version 8 reprocessing we have attempted to apply a consistent calibration to the individual instruments so that their data records can be used together in a time series analysis. Validation consists of examining not only the mean difference from external datasets (i.e trends) but also consistency in the interannual variability of the data. Here we validate the v8 BUV data through comparison with ECC sondes, lidar and microwave measurements, and with SAGE II and HALOE satellite data records. We find that individual profiles generally agree with external data sets within +/-10% between 30 hPa and 1 hPa (approx. 24 - 50 km) and frequently agree within +/-5%. The interannual variability of the BUV ozone time series agrees well with that of SAGE II . On the average, different B W instruments usually agree within +/-5% with each other, though the relative error increases near the ends of the Nimbus 7 and NOAA 16 data records as a result of instrument problems. The combined v8 BUV data sets cover the 1979-2003 time period giving daily global coverage of the ozone vertical distribution to better accuracy than has ever been possible before.

Description: Since 1998 the Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) project has provided over 2000 ozone profiles over eleven southern hemisphere tropical and subtropical stations. Balloon-borne electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozonesondes are used to measure ozone. The data are archived at: &ttp://croc.gsfc.nasa.gov/shadoz〉. In analysis of ozonesonde imprecision within the SHADOZ dataset, Thompson et al. [JGR, 108,8238,20031 we pointed out that variations in ozonesonde technique (sensor solution strength, instrument manufacturer, data processing) could lead to station-to-station biases within the SHADOZ dataset. Imprecisions and accuracy in the SHADOZ dataset are examined in light of new data. First, SHADOZ total ozone column amounts are compared to version 8 TOMS (2004 release). As for TOMS version 7, satellite total ozone is usually higher than the integrated column amount from the sounding. Discrepancies between the sonde and satellite datasets decline two percentage points on average, compared to version 7 TOMS offsets. Second, the SHADOZ station data are compared to results of chamber simulations (JOSE-2000, Juelich Ozonesonde Intercomparison Experiment) in which the various SHADOZ techniques were evaluated. The range of JOSE column deviations from a standard instrument (-10%) in the chamber resembles that of the SHADOZ station data. It appears that some systematic variations in the SHADOZ ozone record are accounted for by differences in solution strength, data processing and instrument type (manufacturer).

Description: Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to imiprove the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. I this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the Goddard research plan of using Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Description: Hurricanes, blizzards and other weather events are important to understand not only for disaster preparation, but also to track the global energy balance and to improve weather and climate forecasts. For several decades, passive radiometers and active radars on aircraft and satellites have been employed to remotely sense rain rates and the properties of liquid particles. In the past few years the relationships between frozen particles and millimeter-wave observations have become understood well enough to estimate the properties of ice in clouds. A brief background of passive remote sensing of precipitation will be presented followed by a focused discussion of recent research at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center estimating the properties of frozen particles in clouds. The retrievals are for (1) ice that will eventually melt into rain, (2) for solid precipitation falling in northern climates, and (3) cirrus ice clouds. The electromagnetic absorption and scattering properties and differences of liquid rain versus frozen particles will be summarized for frequencies from 6 to 340+ GHz. Challenges of this work including surface emissivity variability, non-linear and under-constrained relationships, and frozen particle unknowns will be discussed. Retrieved cloud particle contents and size distributions for ice above the melting layer in hurricanes, retrieved snowfall rates for a blizzard, and cirrus ice estimates will be presented. Future directions of this work will also be described.

Description: Cloud microphysics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, two detailed spectral-bin microphysical schemes were implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensembel (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral-bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e. pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e. 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and in the mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low "c1ean"concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. In addition, differences and similarities between bulk microphysics and spectral-bin microphysical schemes will be examined and discussed.

Description: Last October was the 25th anniversary of the launch of the SBUV and TOMS instruments on NASA's Nimbus-7 satellite. Total Ozone and ozone profile datasets produced by these and following instruments have produced a quarter century long record. Over time we have released several versions of these datasets to incorporate advances in UV radiative transfer, inverse modeling, and instrument characterization. In this meeting we are releasing datasets produced from the version 8 algorithms. They replace the previous versions (V6 SBUV, and V7 TOMS) released about a decade ago. About a dozen companion papers in this meeting provide details of the new algorithms and intercomparison of the new data with external data. In this paper we present key features of the new algorithm, and discuss how the new results differ from those released previously. We show that the new datasets have better internal consistency and also agree better with external datasets. A key feature of the V8 SBUV algorithm is that the climatology has no influence on inter-annual variability and trends; it only affects the mean values and, to a limited extent, the seasonal dependence. By contrast, climatology does have some influence on TOMS total O3 trends, particularly at large solar zenith angles. For this reason, and also because TOMS record has gaps, md EP/TOMS is suffering from data quality problems, we recommend using SBUV total ozone data for applications where the high spatial resolution of TOMS is not essential.

Description: On July 13, 2002, a widespread, thin tropopause cirrus layer occurred over the Florida region. This cloud was observed in great detail with the CRYSTAL-FACE instrumentation, including in-situ measurements with the WB-57 aircraft. We use this cloud case study to evaluate the physical processes controlling the formation and evolution of tropopause cirrus layers. Microphysics indicate ice crystal diameters in the cloud layer ranged from about 7 to 40 um, and the peak number mode was about 10-25 um. In-situ water vapor and temperature measurements in the cloud indicated supersaturation with respect to ice throughout, with ice saturation ratios as large as 1.8. TRajectory analysis shows that the air sampled near the tropopause on this day generally came from the north and cooled considerable during the previous days.Examination of visible satellite imagery indicates that the cloud layer formation was, in general, not simply left over ice from convectively generated anvil cirrus.

Description: Although chemistry and transport models (CTMs) include the same basic elements (photo- chemical mechanism and solver, photolysis scheme, meteorological fields, numerical transport scheme), they produce different results for the future recovery of stratospheric ozone as chlorofluorcarbons decrease. Three simulations will be contrasted: the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM driven by a single year\'s winds from a general circulation model; the GMI CTM driven by a single year\'s winds from a data assimilation system; the NASA GSFC CTM driven by a winds from a multi-year GCM simulation. CTM results for ozone and other constituents will be compared with each other and with observations from ground-based and satellite platforms to address the following: Does the simulated ozone tendency and its latitude, altitude and seasonal dependence match that derived from observations? Does the balance from analysis of observations? Does the balance among photochemical processes match that expected from observations? Can the differences in prediction for ozone recovery be anticipated from these comparisons?