ALBERT

Description: The origin of the population of very massive stars observed within ∼0.4 pc of the supermassive black hole in the Galactic Centre is a mystery. Tidal forces from the black hole would likely inhibit in situ star formation whilst the youth of the massive stars would seem to exclude formation elsewhere followed by transportation (somehow) into the Galactic Centre. Here, we consider a third way to produce these massive stars from the lower mass stars contained in the nuclear stellar cluster which surrounds the supermassive black hole. A passing gas cloud can be tidally shredded by the supermassive black hole forming an accretion disc around the black hole. Stars embedded within this accretion disc will accrete gas from the disc via Bondi–Hoyle accretion, where the accretion rate on to a star, $dot{M}_star propto M_star ^2$. This super-exponential growth of accretion can lead to a steep increase in stellar masses, reaching the required 40–50 M⊙ in some cases. The mass growth rate depends sensitively on the stellar orbital eccentricities and their inclinations. The evolution of the orbital inclinations and/or their eccentricities as stars are trapped by the disc, and their orbits are circularized, will increase the number of massive stars produced. Thus accretion on to low-mass stars can lead to a top heavy stellar mass function in the Galactic Centre and other galactic nuclei. The massive stars produced will pollute the environment via supernova explosions and potentially produce compact binaries whose mergers may be detectable by the LIGO–VIRGO gravitational waves observatories.

Description: We present a 3D semi-analytical model of self-gravitating discs, and include a prescription for dust trapping in the disc spiral arms. Using Monte Carlo radiative transfer, we produce synthetic ALMA (Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array) observations of these discs. In doing so, we demonstrate that our model is capable of producing observational predictions, and able to model real image data of potentially self-gravitating discs. For a disc to generate spiral structure that would be observable with ALMA requires that the disc’s dust mass budget is dominated by millimetre- and centimetre-sized grains. Discs in which grains have grown to the grain fragmentation threshold may satisfy this criterion; thus, we predict that signatures of gravitational instability may be detectable in discs of lower mass than has previously been suggested. For example, we find that discs with disc-to-star mass ratios as low as 0.10 are capable of driving observable spiral arms. Substructure becomes challenging to detect in discs where no grain growth has occurred or in which grain growth has proceeded well beyond the grain fragmentation threshold. We demonstrate how we can use our model to retrieve information about dust trapping and grain growth through multiwavelength observations of discs, and using estimates of the opacity spectral index. Applying our disc model to the Elias 27, WaOph 6, and IM Lup systems, we find gravitational instability to be a plausible explanation for the observed substructure in all three discs, if sufficient grain growth has indeed occurred.

Description: The concept of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) is commonly applied to quantify the impact of clouds on the surface radiative energy budget (REB). In the Arctic, specific radiative interactions between microphysical and macrophysical properties of clouds and the surface strongly modify the warming or cooling effect of clouds, complicating the estimate of CRF obtained from observations or models. Clouds tend to increase the broadband surface albedo over snow or sea ice surfaces compared to cloud-free conditions. However, this effect is not adequately considered in the derivation of CRF in the Arctic so far. Therefore, we have quantified the effects caused by surface-albedo–cloud interactions over highly reflective snow or sea ice surfaces on the CRF using radiative transfer simulations and below-cloud airborne observations above the heterogeneous springtime marginal sea ice zone (MIZ) during the Arctic CLoud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar Day (ACLOUD) campaign. The impact of a modified surface albedo in the presence of clouds, as compared to cloud-free conditions, and its dependence on cloud optical thickness is found to be relevant for the estimation of the shortwave CRF. A method is proposed to consider this surface albedo effect on CRF estimates by continuously retrieving the cloud-free surface albedo from observations under cloudy conditions, using an available snow and ice albedo parameterization. Using ACLOUD data reveals that the estimated average shortwave cooling by clouds almost doubles over snow- and ice-covered surfaces (−62 W m−2 instead of −32 W m−2), if surface-albedo–cloud interactions are considered. As a result, the observed total (shortwave plus longwave) CRF shifted from a warming effect to an almost neutral one. Concerning the seasonal cycle of the surface albedo, it is demonstrated that this effect enhances shortwave cooling in periods when snow dominates the surface and potentially weakens the cooling by optically thin clouds during the summertime melting season. These findings suggest that the surface-albedo–cloud interaction should be considered in global climate models and in long-term studies to obtain a realistic estimate of the shortwave CRF to quantify the role of clouds in Arctic amplification.

Description: The evaluation of potential landslides in mountain areas is a very complex process. Currently, event understanding is scarce due to information limitations. Identifying the whole chain of events is not a straightforward task, and the impacts of mass-wasting processes depend on the conditions downstream of the origin. In this paper, we present an example that illustrates the complexities in the evaluation of the chain of events that may lead to a natural disaster. On 16 December 2017, a landslide occurred in the Yelcho mountain range (southern Chile). In that event, 7 million m3 of rocks and soil fell on the Yelcho glacier, depositing 2 million m3 on the glacier terminal, and the rest continued downstream, triggering a mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia and killing 22 people. The complex event was anticipated in the region by the National Geological and Mining Survey (Sernageomin in Spanish). However, the effects of the terrain characteristics along the run-out area were more significant than anticipated. In this work, we evaluate the conditions that enabled the mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía. We used the information generated by Sernageomin's professionals after the mudflow. We carried out geotechnical tests to characterize the soil. We simulated the mudflow using two hydrodynamic programs (r.avaflow and Flo-2D) that can handle the rheology of the water–soil mixture. Our results indicate that the soil is classified as volcanic pumices. This type of soil can be susceptible to the collapse of the structure when subjected to shearing (molding), flowing as a viscous liquid. From the numerical modeling, we concluded that r.avaflow performs better than Flo-2D. The mudflow was satisfactorily simulated using a water content in the mixture ranging from 30 % to 40 %, which would have required a source of about 3 million m3 of water. Coupling the simulations and the soil tests that we performed, we estimated that in the area scoured by the mudflow, there were probably around 2 800 000 m3 of water within the soil. Therefore, the conditions of the valley were crucial to enhancing the impacts of the landslide. This result is relevant because it highlights the importance of evaluating the complete chain of events to map hazards. We suggest that in future hazard mapping, geotechnical studies in combination with hydrodynamic simulation should be included, in particular when human lives are at risk.

Description: Production and reduction of nitrous oxide (N2O) by soil denitrifiers influence atmospheric concentrations of this potent greenhouse gas. Accurate projections of the net N2O flux have three key uncertainties: (1) short- vs. long-term responses to warming, (2) interactions among soil horizons, and (3) temperature responses of different steps in the denitrification pathway. We addressed these uncertainties by sampling soil from a boreal forest climate transect encompassing a 5.2 ∘C difference in the mean annual temperature and incubating the soil horizons in isolation and together at three ecologically relevant temperatures in conditions that promote denitrification. Both short-term exposure to warmer temperatures and long-term exposure to a warmer climate increased N2O emissions from organic and mineral soils; an isotopic tracer suggested that an increase in N2O production was more important than a decline in N2O reduction. Short-term warming promoted the reduction of organic horizon-derived N2O by mineral soil when these horizons were incubated together. The abundance of nirS (a precursor gene for N2O production) was not sensitive to temperature, whereas that of nosZ clade I (a gene for N2O reduction) decreased with short-term warming in both horizons and was higher from a warmer climate. These results suggest a decoupling of gene abundance and process rates in these soils that differs across horizons and timescales. In spite of these variations, our results suggest a consistent, positive response of denitrifier-mediated net N2O efflux rates to temperature across timescales in these boreal forests. Our work also highlights the importance of understanding cross-horizon N2O fluxes for developing a predictive understanding of net N2O efflux from soils.

Description: Wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural sources of atmospheric methane (CH4). Several process-based models have been developed to quantify the magnitude and estimate spatial and temporal variations in CH4 emissions from global wetlands. Reliable models are required to estimate global wetland CH4 emissions. This study aimed to test two process-based models, CH4MODwetland and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), against the CH4 flux measurements of marsh, swamp, peatland and coastal wetland sites across the world; specifically, model accuracy and generality were evaluated for different wetland types and in different continents, and then the global CH4 emissions from 2000 to 2010 were estimated. Both models showed similar high correlations with the observed seasonal/annual total CH4 emissions, and the regression of the observed versus computed total seasonal/annual CH4 emissions resulted in R2 values of 0.81 and 0.68 for CH4MODwetland and TEM, respectively. The CH4MODwetland produced accurate predictions for marshes, peatlands, swamps and coastal wetlands, with model efficiency (EF) values of 0.22, 0.52, 0.13 and 0.72, respectively. TEM produced good predictions for peatlands and swamps, with EF values of 0.69 and 0.74, respectively, but it could not accurately simulate marshes and coastal wetlands (EF 

Description: The star formation in molecular clouds is inefficient. The ionizing extreme-ultraviolet radiation (hν ≥ 13.6 eV) from young clusters has been considered as a primary feedback effect to limit the star formation efficiency (SFE). Here, we focus on the effects of stellar far-ultraviolet (FUV) radiation (6 eV ≤ hν ≤ 13.6 eV) during the cloud disruption stage. The FUV radiation may further reduce the SFE via photoelectric heating, and it also affects the chemical states of the gas that is not converted to stars (‘cloud remnants’) via photodissociation of molecules. We have developed a one-dimensional semi-analytical model that follows the evolution of both the thermal and chemical structure of a photodissociation region (PDR) during the dynamical expansion of an H ii region. We investigate how the FUV feedback limits the SFE, supposing that the star formation is quenched in the PDR where the temperature is above a threshold value (e.g. 100 K). Our model predicts that the FUV feedback contributes to reduce the SFEs for massive (Mcl ≳ 105 M⊙) clouds with low surface densities ($Sigma _{ m cl}lesssim 100~{ m M}_odot , { m pc}^{-2}$). Moreover, we show that a large part of the H2 molecular gas contained in the cloud remnants should be ‘CO-dark’ under the FUV feedback for a wide range of cloud properties. Therefore, the dispersed molecular clouds are potential factories of CO-dark gas, which returns into the cycle of the interstellar medium.

Description: The Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) 3π survey is a comprehensive optical imaging survey of three quarters of the sky in the grizy broad-band photometric filters. We present the methodology used in assembling the source classification and photometric redshift (photo-z) catalogue for PS1 3π Data Release 1, titled Pan-STARRS1 Source Types and Redshifts with Machine learning (PS1-STRM). For both main data products, we use neural network architectures, trained on a compilation of public spectroscopic measurements that has been cross-matched with PS1 sources. We quantify the parameter space coverage of our training data set, and flag extrapolation using self-organizing maps. We perform a Monte-Carlo sampling of the photometry to estimate photo-z uncertainty. The final catalogue contains 2,902,054,648 objects. On our validation data set, for non-extrapolated sources, we achieve an overall classification accuracy of $98.1\%$ for galaxies, $97.8\%$ for stars, and $96.6\%$ for quasars. Regarding the galaxy photo-z estimation, we attain an overall bias of =0.0005, a standard deviation of σ(Δznorm) = 0.0322, a median absolute deviation of MAD(Δznorm) = 0.0161, and an outlier fraction of $Pleft(|Delta z_{mathrm{norm}}|〉0.15 ight)=1.89\%$. The catalogue will be made available as a high-level science product via the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes.

Description: As knowledge about the cirrus clouds in the lower stratosphere is limited, reliable long-term measurements are needed to assess their characteristics, radiative impact and important role in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) chemistry. We used 6 years (2006–2012) of Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements to investigate the global and seasonal distribution of stratospheric cirrus clouds and compared the MIPAS results with results derived from the latest version (V4.x) of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data. For the identification of stratospheric cirrus clouds, precise information on both the cloud top height (CTH) and the tropopause height is crucial. Here, we used lapse rate tropopause heights estimated from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis. Considering the uncertainties of the tropopause heights and the vertical sampling grid, we define CTHs more than 0.5 km above the tropopause as stratospheric for CALIPSO data. For MIPAS data, we took into account the coarser vertical sampling grid and the broad field of view so that we considered cirrus CTHs detected more than 0.75 km above the tropopause as stratospheric. Further sensitivity tests were conducted to rule out sampling artefacts in MIPAS data. The global distribution of stratospheric cirrus clouds was derived from night-time measurements because of the higher detection sensitivity of CALIPSO. In both data sets, MIPAS and CALIPSO, the stratospheric cirrus cloud occurrence frequencies are significantly higher in the tropics than in the extra-tropics. Tropical hotspots of stratospheric cirrus clouds associated with deep convection are located over equatorial Africa, South and Southeast Asia, the western Pacific, and South America. Stratospheric cirrus clouds were more often detected in December–February (15 %) than June–August (8 %) in the tropics (±20∘). At northern and southern middle latitudes (40–60∘), MIPAS observed about twice as many stratospheric cirrus clouds (occurrence frequencies of 4 %–5 % for MIPAS rather than about 2 % for CALIPSO). We attribute more frequent observations of stratospheric cirrus clouds with MIPAS to the higher detection sensitivity of the instrument to optically thin clouds. In contrast to the difference between daytime and night-time occurrence frequencies of stratospheric cirrus clouds by a factor of about 2 in zonal means in the tropics (4 % and 10 %, respectively) and at middle latitudes for CALIPSO data, there is little diurnal cycle in MIPAS data, in which the difference of occurrence frequencies in the tropics is about 1 percentage point in zonal mean and about 0.5 percentage point at middle latitudes. The difference between CALIPSO day and night measurements can also be attributed to their differences in detection sensitivity. Future work should focus on better understanding the origin of the stratospheric cirrus clouds and their impact on radiative forcing and climate.

Description: Air quality on our planet has been changing in particular since the industrial revolution (1750s) because of anthropogenic emissions. It is becoming increasingly important to realize air cleanliness, since clean air is as valuable a resource as clean water. A global standard for quantifying the level of air cleanliness is swiftly required, and we defined a novel concept, namely the Clean aIr Index (CII). The CII is a simple index defined by the normalization of the amount of a set of individual air pollutants. A CII value of 1 indicates completely clean air (no air pollutants), and 0 indicates the presence of air pollutants that meet the numerical environmental criteria for the normalization. In this time, the air pollutants used in the CII were taken from the Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) set by the World Health Organization (WHO), namely O3, particulate matters, NO2, and SO2. We chose Japan as a study area to evaluate CII because of the following reasons: (i) accurate validation data, as the in situ observation sites of the Atmospheric Environmental Regional Observation System (AEROS) provide highly accurate values of air pollutant amounts, and (ii) fixed numerical criteria from the Japanese Environmental Quality Standards (JEQS) as directed by the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) of Japan. We quantified air cleanliness in terms of the CII for the all 1896 municipalities in Japan and used data from Seoul and Beijing to evaluate Japanese air cleanliness. The amount of each air pollutant was calculated using a model that combined the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models for 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2017. The CII values calculated by the WRF–CMAQ model and the AEROS measurements showed good agreement. The mean of the correlation coefficient for the CII values of 498 municipalities where the AEROS measurements operated was 0.66±0.05, which was higher than that of the Air Quality Index (AQI) of 0.57±0.06. The CII values averaged for the study period were 0.67, 0.52, and 0.24 in Tokyo, Seoul, and Beijing, respectively; thus, the air in Tokyo was 1.5 and 2.3 times cleaner, i.e., lower amounts of air pollutants, than the air in Seoul and Beijing, respectively. The average CII value for the all Japanese municipalities was 0.72 over the study period. The extremely clean air, CII ≈0.90, occurred in the southern remote islands of Tokyo and to the west of the Pacific coast, i.e., Kochi, Mie, and Wakayama prefectures during summer, with the transport of clean air from the ocean. We presented the top 100 clean air cities in Japan as one example of an application of CII in society. We confirmed that the CII enabled the quantitative evaluation of air cleanliness. The CII can be useful and valuable in various scenarios such as encouraging sightseeing and migration, investment and insurance business, and city planning. The CII is a simple and fair index that can be applied to all nations.

Description: Calculating a multi-model mean, a commonly used method for ensemble averaging, assumes model independence and equal model skill. Sharing of model components amongst families of models and research centres, conflated by growing ensemble size, means model independence cannot be assumed and is hard to quantify. We present a methodology to produce a weighted-model ensemble projection, accounting for model performance and model independence. Model weights are calculated by comparing model hindcasts to a selection of metrics chosen for their physical relevance to the process or phenomena of interest. This weighting methodology is applied to the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ensemble to investigate Antarctic ozone depletion and subsequent recovery. The weighted mean projects an ozone recovery to 1980 levels, by 2056 with a 95 % confidence interval (2052–2060), 4 years earlier than the most recent study. Perfect-model testing and out-of-sample testing validate the results and show a greater projective skill than a standard multi-model mean. Interestingly, the construction of a weighted mean also provides insight into model performance and dependence between the models. This weighting methodology is robust to both model and metric choices and therefore has potential applications throughout the climate and chemistry–climate modelling communities.

Description: Connections between vegetation and soil thermal dynamics are critical for estimating the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw with continued climate warming and vegetation changes. The interplay of complex biophysical processes results in a highly heterogeneous soil temperature distribution on small spatial scales. Moreover, the link between topsoil temperature and active layer thickness remains poorly constrained. Sixty-eight temperature loggers were installed at 1–3 cm depth to record the distribution of topsoil temperatures at the Trail Valley Creek study site in the northwestern Canadian Arctic. The measurements were distributed across six different vegetation types characteristic for this landscape. Two years of topsoil temperature data were analysed statistically to identify temporal and spatial characteristics and their relationship to vegetation, snow cover, and active layer thickness. The mean annual topsoil temperature varied between −3.7 and 0.1 ∘C within 0.5 km2. The observed variation can, to a large degree, be explained by variation in snow cover. Differences in snow depth are strongly related with vegetation type and show complex associations with late-summer thaw depth. While cold winter soil temperature is associated with deep active layers in the following summer for lichen and dwarf shrub tundra, we observed the opposite beneath tall shrubs and tussocks. In contrast to winter observations, summer topsoil temperature is similar below all vegetation types with an average summer topsoil temperature difference of less than 1 ∘C. Moreover, there is no significant relationship between summer soil temperature or cumulative positive degree days and active layer thickness. Altogether, our results demonstrate the high spatial variability of topsoil temperature and active layer thickness even within specific vegetation types. Given that vegetation type defines the direction of the relationship between topsoil temperature and active layer thickness in winter and summer, estimates of permafrost vulnerability based on remote sensing or model results will need to incorporate complex local feedback mechanisms of vegetation change and permafrost thaw.

Description: Evapotranspiration (ET) from tropical forests serves as a critical moisture source for regional and global climate cycles. However, the magnitude, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET in the Congo Basin remain poorly constrained due to a scarcity of direct observations, despite the Congo being the second-largest river basin in the world and containing a vast region of tropical forest. In this study, we applied a water balance model to an array of remotely sensed and in situ datasets to produce monthly, basin-wide ET estimates spanning April 2002 to November 2016. Data sources include water storage changes estimated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in situ measurements of river discharge, and precipitation from several remotely sensed and gauge-based sources. An optimal precipitation dataset was determined as a weighted average of interpolated data by Nicholson et al. (2018), Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Station data version 2 (CHIRPS2) , and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record product (PERSIANN-CDR), with the relative weights based on the error magnitudes of each dataset as determined by triple collocation. The resulting water-balance-derived ET (ETwb) features a long-term average that is consistent with previous studies (117.2±3.5 cm yr−1) but displays greater seasonal and interannual variability than seven global ET products. The seasonal cycle of ETwb generally tracks that of precipitation over the basin, with the exception that ETwb is greater in March–April–May (MAM) than in the relatively wetter September–October–November (SON) periods. This pattern appears to be driven by seasonal variations in the diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) fraction, net radiation (Rn), and soil water availability. From 2002 to 2016, Rn, PAR, and vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) all increased significantly within the Congo Basin; however, no corresponding trend occurred in ETwb. We hypothesize that the stability of ETwb over the study period despite sunnier and less humid conditions may be due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations that offset the impacts of rising VPD and irradiance on stomatal water use efficiency (WUE).

Description: A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3 ∘C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4 ∘C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.

Description: The meridional heat transport (MHT) in the North Atlantic is critically important to climate variability and the global overturning circulation. A wide range of ocean processes contribute to North Atlantic MHT, ranging from basin-scale overturning and gyre motions to mesoscale instabilities (such as eddies). However, previous analyses of “eddy” MHT in the region have mostly focused on the contributions of time-variable velocity and temperature, rather than considering the association of MHT with distinct spatial scales within the basin. In this study, a zonal spatial-scale decomposition separates large-scale from mesoscale velocity and temperature contributions to MHT, in order to characterize the physical processes driving MHT. Using this approach, we found that the mesoscale contributions to the time-mean and interannual/decadal (ID) variability of MHT in the latitude range 39–45∘ N are larger than large-scale horizontal contributions, though smaller than the overturning contributions. Considering the 40∘ N transect as a case study, large-scale ID variability is mostly generated close to the western boundary. In contrast, most ID MHT variability associated with mesoscales originates in two distinct regions: a western boundary region (70–60∘ W) associated with 1- to 4-year interannual variations and an interior region (50–35∘ W) associated with decadal variations. Surface eddy kinetic energy is not a reliable indicator of high MHT episodes, but the large-scale meridional temperature gradient is an important factor, by influencing the local temperature variance as well as the local correlation of velocity and temperature. Most of the mesoscale contribution to MHT at 40∘ N is associated with transient and propagating processes, but stationary mesoscale structures explain most of the mesoscale MHT south of the Gulf Stream separation, highlighting the differences between the temporal and spatial decomposition of meridional temperature fluxes.

Description: Accurate reference spectroscopic information for the water molecule from the microwave to the near-ultraviolet is of paramount importance in atmospheric research. A semi-empirical potential energy surface for the ground electronic state of H216O has been created by refining almost 4000 experimentally determined energy levels. These states extend into regions with large values of rotational and vibrational excitation. For all states considered in our refinement procedure, which extend to 37 000 cm−1 and J=20 (total angular momentum), the average root-mean-square deviation is approximately 0.05 cm−1. This potential energy surface offers significant improvements when compared to recent models by accurately predicting states possessing high values of J. This feature will offer significant improvements in calculated line positions for high-temperature spectra where transitions between high J states become more prominent. Combining this potential with the latest dipole moment surface for water vapour, a line list has been calculated which extends reliably to 37 000 cm−1. Obtaining reliable results in the ultraviolet is of special importance as it is a challenging spectral region for the water molecule both experimentally and theoretically. Comparisons are made against several experimental sources of cross sections in the near-ultraviolet and discrepancies are observed. In the near-ultraviolet our calculations are in agreement with recent atmospheric retrievals and the upper limit obtained using broadband spectroscopy by Wilson et al. (2016, p. 194), but they do not support recent suggestions of very strong absorption in this region.

Description: Various studies investigated the fate of evaporation and the origin of precipitation. The more recent studies among them were often carried out with the help of numerical moisture tracking. Many research questions could be answered within this context, such as dependencies of atmospheric moisture transfers between different regions, impacts of land cover changes on the hydrological cycle, sustainability-related questions, and questions regarding the seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation. In order to facilitate future applications, global datasets on the fate of evaporation and the sources of precipitation are needed. Since most studies are on a regional level and focus more on the sources of precipitation, the goal of this study is to provide a readily available global dataset on the fate of evaporation for a fine-meshed grid of source and receptor cells. The dataset was created through a global run of the numerical moisture tracking model Water Accounting Model-2layers (WAM-2layers) and focused on the fate of land evaporation. The tracking was conducted on a 1.5∘×1.5∘ grid and was based on reanalysis data from the ERA-Interim database. Climatic input data were incorporated in 3- to 6-hourly time steps and represent the time period from 2001 to 2018. Atmospheric moisture was tracked forward in time and the geographical borders of the model were located at ±79.5∘ latitude. As a result of the model run, the annual, the monthly and the interannual average fate of evaporation were determined for 8684 land grid cells (all land cells except those located within Greenland and Antarctica) and provided via source–receptor matrices. The gained dataset was complemented via an aggregation to country and basin scales in order to highlight possible usages for areas of interest larger than grid cells. This resulted in data for 265 countries and 8223 basins. Finally, five types of source–receptor matrices for average moisture transfers were chosen to build the core of the dataset: land grid cell to grid cell, country to grid cell, basin to grid cell, country to country, basin to basin. The dataset is, to our knowledge, the first ready-to-download dataset providing the overall fate of evaporation for land cells of a global fine-meshed grid in monthly resolution. At the same time, information on the sources of precipitation can be extracted from it. It could be used for investigations into average annual, seasonal, and interannual sink and source regions of atmospheric moisture from land masses for most of the regions in the world and shows various application possibilities for studying interactions between people and water, such as land cover changes or human water consumption patterns. The dataset is accessible under https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.908705 (Link et al., 2019a) and comes along with example scripts for reading and plotting the data.

Description: We present CO observations towards a sample of six H i-rich Ultradiffuse galaxies (UDGs) as well as one UDG (VLSB-A) in the Virgo Cluster with the Institut de RadioAstronomie Millimétrique (IRAM) 30-m telescope. CO J = 1–0 is marginally detected at 4σ level in AGC 122966, as the first detection of CO emission in UDGs. We estimate upper limits of molecular mass in other galaxies from the non-detection of CO lines. These upper limits and the marginal CO detection in AGC 122966 indicate low mass ratios between molecular and atomic gas masses. With the star formation efficiency derived from the molecular gas, we suggest that the inefficiency of star formation in such H i-rich UDGs is likely caused by the low efficiency in converting molecules from atomic gas, instead of low efficiency in forming stars from molecular gas.

Description: Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) that reside at the centres of galaxies can inject vast amounts of energy into the surrounding gas and are thought to be a viable mechanism to quench star formation in massive galaxies. Here, we study the $10^{9-12.5}, mathrm{M_odot }$ stellar mass central galaxy population of the IllustrisTNG simulation, specifically the TNG100 and TNG300 volumes at z = 0, and show how the three components – SMBH, galaxy, and circumgalactic medium (CGM) – are interconnected in their evolution. We find that gas entropy is a sensitive diagnostic of feedback injection. In particular, we demonstrate how the onset of the low-accretion black hole (BH) feedback mode, realized in the IllustrisTNG model as a kinetic, BH-driven wind, leads not only to star formation quenching at stellar masses $gtrsim 10^{10.5}, mathrm{M_odot }$ but also to a change in thermodynamic properties of the (non-star-forming) gas, both within the galaxy and beyond. The IllustrisTNG kinetic feedback from SMBHs increases the average gas entropy, within the galaxy and in the CGM, lengthening typical gas cooling times from $10!-!100, mathrm{Myr}$ to $1!-!10, mathrm{Gyr}$, effectively ceasing ongoing star formation and inhibiting radiative cooling and future gas accretion. In practice, the same active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback channel is simultaneously ‘ejective’ and ‘preventative’ and leaves an imprint on the temperature, density, entropy, and cooling times also in the outer reaches of the gas halo, up to distances of several hundred kiloparsecs. In the IllustrisTNG model, a long-lasting quenching state can occur for a heterogeneous CGM, whereby the hot and dilute CGM gas of quiescent galaxies contains regions of low-entropy gas with short cooling times.

Description: We study the stationary points of the hierarchical three body problem in the planetary limit (m1, m2 ≪ m0) at both the quadrupole and octupole orders. We demonstrate that the extension to octupole order preserves the principal stationary points of the quadrupole solution in the limit of small outer eccentricity e2 but that new families of stable fixed points occur in both prograde and retrograde cases. The most important new equilibria are those that branch off from the quadrupolar solutions and extend to large e2. The apsidal alignment of these families is a function of mass and inner planet eccentricity, and is determined by the relative directions of precession of ω1 and ω2 at the quadrupole level. These new equilibria are also the most resilient to the destabilizing effects of relativistic precession. We find additional equilibria that enable libration of the inner planet argument of pericentre in the limit of radial orbits and recover the non-linear analogue of the Laplace–Lagrange solutions in the coplanar limit. Finally, we show that the chaotic diffusion and orbital flips identified with the eccentric Kozai–Lidov mechanism and its variants can be understood in terms of the stationary points discussed here.

Description: Optimum management of irrigated crops in regions with shallow saline groundwater requires a careful balance between application of irrigation water and upward movement of salinity from the groundwater. Few field-validated surrogate models are available to aid in the management of irrigation water under shallow groundwater conditions. The objective of this research is to develop a model that can aid in the management using a minimum of input data that are field validated. In this paper a 2-year field experiment was carried out in the Hetao irrigation district in Inner Mongolia, China, and a physically based integrated surrogate model for arid irrigated areas with shallow groundwater was developed and validated with the collected field data. The integrated model that links crop growth with available water and salinity in the vadose zone is called Evaluation of the Performance of Irrigated Crops and Soils (EPICS). EPICS recognizes that field capacity is reached when the matric potential is equal to the height above the groundwater table and thus not by a limiting hydraulic conductivity. In the field experiment, soil moisture contents and soil salt conductivity at five depths in the top 100 cm, groundwater depth, crop height, and leaf area index were measured in 2017 and 2018. The field results were used for calibration and validation of EPICS. Simulated and observed data fitted generally well during both calibration and validation. The EPICS model that can predict crop growth, soil water, groundwater depth, and soil salinity can aid in optimizing water management in irrigation districts with shallow aquifers.

Description: Recently, it has been established that interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) can dramatically affect both trapped electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt and precipitating electron fluxes lost from the belt into the atmosphere. Precipitating electron fluxes and energies can vary over a range of timescales during these events. These variations depend on the initial energy and location of the electron population and the ICME characteristics and structures. One important factor controlling electron dynamics is the magnetic field orientation within the ejecta that is an integral part of the ICME. In this study, we examine Van Allen Probes (RBSPs) and Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POESs) data to explore trapped and precipitating electron fluxes during two ICMEs. The ejecta in the selected ICMEs have magnetic cloud characteristics that exhibit the opposite sense of the rotation of the north–south magnetic field component (BZ). RBSP data are used to study trapped electron fluxes in situ, while POES data are used for electron fluxes precipitating into the upper atmosphere. The trapped and precipitating electron fluxes are qualitatively analysed to understand their variation in relation to each other and to the magnetic cloud rotation during these events. Inner magnetospheric wave activity was also estimated using RBSP and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data. In each event, the largest changes in the location and magnitude of both the trapped and precipitating electron fluxes occurred during the southward portion of the magnetic cloud. Significant changes also occurred during the end of the sheath and at the sheath–ejecta boundary for the cloud with south to north magnetic field rotation, while the ICME with north to south rotation had significant changes at the end boundary of the cloud. The sense of rotation of BZ and its profile also clearly affects the coherence of the trapped and/or precipitating flux changes, timing of variations with respect to the ICME structures, and flux magnitude of different electron populations. The differing electron responses could therefore imply partly different dominant acceleration mechanisms acting on the outer radiation belt electron populations as a result of opposite magnetic cloud rotation.

Description: In this paper, we quantify the CO2 and N2O emissions from denitrification over the Amazonian wetlands. The study concerns the entire Amazonian wetland ecosystem with a specific focus on three floodplain (FP) locations: the Branco FP, the Madeira FP and the FP alongside the Amazon River. We adapted a simple denitrification model to the case of tropical wetlands and forced it by open water surface extent products from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. A priori model parameters were provided by in situ observations and gauging stations from the HYBAM Observatory. Our results show that the denitrification and the trace gas emissions present a strong cyclic pattern linked to the inundation processes that can be divided into three distinct phases: activation, stabilization and deactivation. We quantify the average yearly denitrification and associated emissions of CO2 and N2O over the entire watershed at 17.8 kgN ha−1 yr−1, 0.37 gC-CO2 m−2 yr−1 and 0.18 gN-N2O m−2 yr−1 respectively for the period 2011–2015. When compared to local observations, it was found that the CO2 emissions accounted for 0.01 % of the integrated ecosystem, which emphasizes the fact that minor changes to the land cover may induce strong impacts on the Amazonian carbon budget. Our results are consistent with the state of the art of global nitrogen models with a positive bias of 28 %. When compared to other wetlands in different pedoclimatic environments we found that the Amazonian wetlands have similar emissions of N2O with the Congo tropical wetlands and lower emissions than the temperate and tropical anthropogenic wetlands of the Garonne (France), the Rhine (Europe) and south-eastern Asia rice paddies. In summary our paper shows that a data-model-based approach can be successfully applied to quantify N2O and CO2 fluxes associated with denitrification over the Amazon basin. In the future, the use of higher-resolution remote sensing products from sensor fusion or new sensors like the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will permit the transposition of the approach to other large-scale watersheds in tropical environments.

Description: In the framework of the EU Copernicus programme, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is forecasting daily fire weather indices using its medium-range ensemble prediction system. The use of weather forecasts in place of local observations can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries. Using 1 year of pre-operational service in 2017 and the Fire Weather Index (FWI), here we assess the capability of the system globally and analyse in detail three major events in Chile, Portugal and California. The analysis shows that the skill provided by the ensemble forecast system extends to more than 10 d when compared to the use of mean climate, making a case for extending the forecast range to the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale. However, accurate FWI prediction does not translate into accuracy in the forecast of fire activity globally. Indeed, when all fires detected in 2017 are considered, including agricultural- and human-induced burning, high FWI values only occur in 50 % of the cases and are limited to the Boreal regions. Nevertheless for very large events which were driven by weather conditions, FWI forecasts provide advance warning that could be instrumental in setting up management and containment strategies.

Description: North African dust reaches the southeastern United States every summer. Size-resolved dust mass measurements taken in Miami, Florida, indicate that more than one-half of the surface dust mass concentrations reside in particles with geometric diameters less than 2.1 µm, while vertical profiles of micropulse lidar depolarization ratios show dust reaching above 4 km during pronounced events. These observations are compared to the representation of dust in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis and closely related Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) aerosol product, both of which assimilate satellite-derived aerosol optical depths using a similar protocol and inputs. These capture the day-to-day variability in aerosol optical depth well, in a comparison to an independent sun-photometer-derived aerosol optical depth dataset. Most of the modeled dust mass resides in diameters between 2 and 6 µm, in contrast to the measurements. Model-specified mass extinction efficiencies equate light extinction with approximately 3 times as much aerosol mass, in this size range, compared to the measured dust sizes. GEOS-5 FP surface-layer sea salt mass concentrations greatly exceed observed values, despite realistic winds and relative humidities. In combination, these observations help explain why, despite realistic total aerosol optical depths, (1) free-tropospheric model volume extinction coefficients are lower than those retrieved from the micro-pulse lidar, suggesting too-low model dust loadings in the free troposphere, and (2) model dust mass concentrations near the surface can be higher than those measured. The modeled vertical distribution of dust, when captured, is reasonable. Large, aspherical particles exceeding the modeled dust sizes are also occasionally present, but dust particles with diameters exceeding 10 µm contribute little to the measured total dust mass concentrations after such long-range transport. Remaining uncertainties warrant a further integrated assessment to confirm this study's interpretations.

Description: Anaerobic nitrate-dependent Fe(II) oxidation (NDFeO) is widespread in various aquatic environments and plays a major role in iron and nitrogen redox dynamics. However, evidence for truly enzymatic, autotrophic NDFeO remains limited, with alternative explanations involving the coupling of heterotrophic denitrification with the abiotic oxidation of structurally bound or aqueous Fe(II) by reactive intermediate nitrogen (N) species (chemodenitrification). The extent to which chemodenitrification is caused (or enhanced) by ex vivo surface catalytic effects has not been directly tested to date. To determine whether the presence of either an Fe(II)-bearing mineral or dead biomass (DB) catalyses chemodenitrification, two different sets of anoxic batch experiments were conducted: 2 mM Fe(II) was added to a low-phosphate medium, resulting in the precipitation of vivianite (Fe3(PO4)2), to which 2 mM nitrite (NO2-) was later added, with or without an autoclaved cell suspension (∼1.96×108 cells mL−1) of Shewanella oneidensis MR-1. Concentrations of nitrite (NO2-), nitrous oxide (N2O), and iron (Fe2+, Fetot) were monitored over time in both set-ups to assess the impact of Fe(II) minerals and/or DB as catalysts of chemodenitrification. In addition, the natural-abundance isotope ratios of NO2- and N2O (δ15N and δ18O) were analysed to constrain the associated isotope effects. Up to 90 % of the Fe(II) was oxidized in the presence of DB, whereas only ∼65 % of the Fe(II) was oxidized under mineral-only conditions, suggesting an overall lower reactivity of the mineral-only set-up. Similarly, the average NO2- reduction rate in the mineral-only experiments (0.004±0.003 mmol L−1 d−1) was much lower than in the experiments with both mineral and DB (0.053±0.013 mmol L−1 d−1), as was N2O production (204.02±60.29 nmol L−1 d−1). The N2O yield per mole NO2- reduced was higher in the mineral-only set-ups (4 %) than in the experiments with DB (1 %), suggesting the catalysis-dependent differential formation of NO. N-NO2- isotope ratio measurements indicated a clear difference between both experimental conditions: in contrast to the marked 15N isotope enrichment during active NO2- reduction (15εNO2=+10.3 ‰) observed in the presence of DB, NO2- loss in the mineral-only experiments exhibited only a small N isotope effect (

Description: Summary On 24th August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm/s2 on E-W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broadband seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al. (2016). The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broadband synthetic time series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC-18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.

Description: Despite its likely importance in astrochemistry, pure rotational spectra are not observable for gas phase N2 since this molecule has no permanent dipole moment. Complexation of monomeric N2 with a cationic metal (MN2+) may be kinetically and thermodynamically favorable, and the detection of such MN2+ molecules could be useful tracers of N2 in order to probe its abundance and kinetics. Highly accurate quartic force field methods have been applied here to compute rotational and vibrational spectroscopic properties of the NaN2+ and MgN2+ molecules via a coupled cluster-based composite approach with additional corrections for post-CCSD(T) electron correlation and relativistic effects. The relative energies of various isomers have also been computed and show that both NaN2+ and MgN2+ have linear ground electronic states. At the highest level of theory, rotational constants (B0) of 4086.9 and 4106.0 MHz are predicted for NaN2+ and MgN2+, respectively, with dipole moments of 6.92 D and 4.34 D, respectively making them rotationally observable even at low concentrations. Post-CCSD(T) electron correlation corrections lower the N-N stretching frequency while relativistic corrections have a much smaller effect putting the fundamental frequencies at 2333.7 cm−1 and 2313.6 cm−1, respective of NaN2+ and MgN2+ slightly above that in N2H+. Additive corrections do not significantly change the other two vibrational modes. An anharmonic, zero-point corrected N2 dissociation energy of 7.3 and 7.0 kcal mol−1 is, respectively, reported for NaN2+ and MgN2+ suggesting possible formation of these molecules in protoplanetary disks or planetary nebulae that are metal- and nitrogen-rich.

Description: Simulations of galaxy formation tend to place star particles in orbits seriously different from circular in numbers far larger than seem reasonable for the bulges and stellar haloes of the nearby L ∼ L* galaxies that can be examined in particularly close detail. I offer an example of how the situation might be improved: a prescription for non-Gaussian initial conditions on the scale of galaxies.

Description: We present results from six epochs of quasi-simultaneous radio, (sub-)millimetre, infrared, optical, and X-ray observations of the black hole X-ray binary MAXI J1535−571. These observations show that as the source transitioned through the hard–intermediate X-ray state towards the soft–intermediate X-ray state, the jet underwent dramatic and rapid changes. We observed the frequency of the jet spectral break, which corresponds to the most compact region in the jet where particle acceleration begins (higher frequencies indicate closer to the black hole), evolves from the infrared band into the radio band (decreasing by ≈3 orders of magnitude) in less than a day. During one observational epoch, we found evidence of the jet spectral break evolving in frequency through the radio band. Estimating the magnetic field and size of the particle acceleration region shows that the rapid fading of the high-energy jet emission was not consistent with radiative cooling; instead, the particle acceleration region seems to be moving away from the black hole on approximately dynamical time-scales. This result suggests that the compact jet quenching is not caused by local changes to the particle acceleration, rather we are observing the acceleration region of the jet travelling away from the black hole with the jet flow. Spectral analysis of the X-ray emission shows a gradual softening in the few days before the dramatic jet changes, followed by a more rapid softening ∼1–2 d after the onset of the jet quenching.

Description: The Mediterranean (MED) Basin is a climate change hotspot that has seen drying and a pronounced increase in heatwaves over the last century. At the same time, it is experiencing increased heavy precipitation during wintertime cold spells. Understanding and quantifying the risks from compound events over the MED is paramount for present and future disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we apply a novel method to study compound events based on dynamical systems theory and analyse compound temperature and precipitation events over the MED from 1979 to 2018. The dynamical systems analysis quantifies the strength of the coupling between different atmospheric variables over the MED. Further, we consider compound warm–dry anomalies in summer and cold–wet anomalies in winter. Our results show that these warm–dry and cold–wet compound days are associated with large values of the temperature–precipitation coupling parameter of the dynamical systems analysis. This indicates that there is a strong interaction between temperature and precipitation during compound events. In winter, we find no significant trend in the coupling between temperature and precipitation. However in summer, we find a significant upward trend which is likely driven by a stronger coupling during warm and dry days. Thermodynamic processes associated with long-term MED warming can best explain the trend, which intensifies compound warm–dry events.

Description: Anhand von sedimentologischen und geländemorphologischen Untersuchungen wird die Abschmelzgeschichte des südöstlichen Chiemsee-Gletschers beschrieben. Mit dem Trockenfallen der Bad Adelholzen-Erlstätter Rinne im Verlaufe des Spätwürm entwickelt sich aus dem Abschmelzen des Eislappens in der Grabenstätter Bucht eine sich ständig tiefer legende konzentrische Abfolge von zunächst peripheren Entwässerungsrinnen, wobei die ältesten Rinnen dieser Phase bei Chieming, die jüngeren dann entsprechend weiter im Süden, in die zentripetale Richtung umschwenken. Die Entstehung des Tüttensee-Komplexes ist im Kontext dieser Entwicklung zu sehen. Er ist das Ergebnis der glazifluvialen und glazilakustrinen Sedimentation im Einflussbereich des sukzessiven Eisabbaus in der Grabenstätter Bucht in Kombination mit einer Toteisbildung im Bereich des heutigen Tüttensees. Dafür sprechen die stufenartige Abfolge der beschriebenen peripheren Abflussrinnen mit ihren immer tiefer liegenden Abflussniveaus, die Höhengleichheit von drei dieser Rinnen mit den Tüttensee-Terrassen sowie die für die jeweilige Terrassenentstehung typische glazifluviale bzw. delta-artige Sedimentstruktur und -reife. Dieses Ergebnis stellt ein Korrektiv zur Hypothese des Chiemgau-Impakts dar, wonach der Tüttensee ein Impaktkrater sein soll. Da diese nun falsifizierte Annahme vor allem im deutschsprachigen Raum von zahlreichen Medien propagiert wird, ist der folgende Artikel auf Deutsch verfasst, um einer breiten Leserschaft zugänglich zu sein.

Description: Summary We explore here the benefits of using constraints from seismic tomography in gravity data inversion and how inverted density distributions can be improved by doing so. The methodology is applied to a real field case in which we reconstruct the density structure of the Pyrenees along a southwest-northeast transect going from the Ebro basin in Spain to the Arzacq basin in France. We recover the distribution of densities by inverting gravity anomalies under constraints coming from seismic tomography. We initiate the inversion from a prior density model obtained by scaling a pre-existing compressional seismic velocity Vp model using a Nafe-Drake relationship : the Vp model resulting from a full-waveform inversion of teleseismic data. Gravity data inversions enforce structural similarities between Vp and density by minimizing the norm of the cross-gradient between the density and Vp models. We also compare models obtained from 2.5D and 3D inversions. Our results demonstrate that structural constraints allow us to better recover the density contrasts close to the surface and at depth, without degrading the gravity data misfit. The final density model provides valuable information on the geological structures and on the thermal state and composition of the western region of the Pyrenean lithosphere.

Description: Temperature appears to be the best predictor of species composition of planktonic foraminifera communities, making it possible to use their fossil assemblages to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the past. However, the role of other environmental factors potentially modulating the spatial and vertical distribution of planktonic foraminifera species is poorly understood. This is especially relevant for environmental factors affecting the subsurface habitat. If such factors play a role, changes in the abundance of subsurface-dwelling species may not solely reflect SST variation. In order to constrain the effect of subsurface parameters on species composition, we here characterize the vertical distribution of living planktonic foraminifera community across an east–west transect through the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean, where SST variability was small, but the subsurface water mass structure changed dramatically. Four planktonic foraminifera communities could be identified across the top 700 m of the transect. Gyre and Agulhas Leakage surface faunas were predominantly composed of Globigerinoides ruber, Globigerinoides tenellus, Trilobatus sacculifer, Globoturborotalita rubescens, Globigerinella calida, Tenuitella iota, and Globigerinita glutinata, and these only differed in terms of relative abundances (community composition). Upwelling fauna was dominated by Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Neogloboquadrina incompta, Globorotalia crassaformis, and Globorotalia inflata. Thermocline fauna was dominated by Tenuitella fleisheri, Globorotalia truncatulinoides, and Globorotalia scitula in the west and by G. scitula only in the east. The largest part of the standing stock was consistently found in the surface layer, but SST was not the main predictor of species composition either for the depth-integrated fauna across the stations or at individual depth layers. Instead, we identified a pattern of vertical stacking of different parameters controlling species composition, reflecting different aspects of the pelagic habitat. Whereas productivity appears to dominate in the mixed layer (0–60 m), physical properties (temperature, salinity) become important at intermediate depths and in the subsurface, a complex combination of factors including oxygen concentration is required to explain the assemblage composition. These results indicate that the seemingly straightforward relationship between assemblage composition and SST in sedimentary assemblages reflects vertically and seasonally integrated processes that are only indirectly linked to SST. It also implies that fossil assemblages of planktonic foraminifera should also contain a signature of subsurface processes, which could be used for paleoceanographic reconstructions.

Description: Summary The relatively short duration of the early stages of subduction results in a poor geological record, limiting our understanding of this critical stage. Here, we utilize a 2D numerical model of incipient subduction, that is the stage after a plate margin has formed with a slab tip that extends to a shallow depth and address the conditions under which subduction continues or fails. We assess energy budgets during the evolution from incipient subduction to either a failed or successful state, showing how the growth of potential energy, and slab pull, is resisted by the viscous dissipation within the lithosphere and the mantle. The role of rheology is also investigated, as deformation mechanisms operating in the crust and mantle facilitate subduction. In all models, the onset of subduction is characterized by high lithospheric viscous dissipation and low convergence velocities, whilst successful subduction sees the mantle become the main area of viscous dissipation. In contrast, failed subduction is defined by the lithospheric viscous dissipation exceeding the lithospheric potential energy release rate and velocities tend towards zero. We show that development of a subduction zone depends on the convergence rate, required to overcome thermal diffusion and to localise deformation along the margin. The results propose a minimum convergence rate of ∼ 0.5 cm yr−1 is required to reach a successful state, with 100 km of convergence over 20 Myr, emphasizing the critical role of the incipient stage.

Description: Summary Although many studies have revealed that the atmospheric effects of electromagnetic wave propagation (including ionospheric and tropospheric water vapor) have serious impacts on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurement results, atmospheric corrections have not been thoroughly and comprehensively investigated in many well-known cases of InSAR focal mechanism solutions, which means there is no consensus on whether atmospheric effects will affect the InSAR focal mechanism solution. Moreover, there is a lack of quantitative assessment on how much the atmospheric effect affects the InSAR focal mechanism solution. In this paper, we emphasized that it was particularly important to assess the impact of InSAR ionospheric and tropospheric corrections on the underground nuclear explosion modeling quantitatively. Therefore, we investigated the 4th North Korea (NKT-4) underground nuclear test using ALOS-2 liters-band SAR images. Because the process of the underground nuclear explosion was similar to the volcanic magma source activity, we modeled the ground displacement using the Mogi model. Both the ionospheric and tropospheric phase delays in the interferograms were investigated. Furthermore, we studied how the ionosphere and troposphere phase delays could bias the estimation of Mogi source parameters. The following conclusions were drawn from our case study: The ionospheric delay correction effectively mitigated the long-scale phase ramp in the full-frame interferogram, the standard deviation decreased from 1.83 cm to 0.85 cm compared to the uncorrected interferogram. The uncorrected estimations of yield and depth were 8.44 kt and 370.33 m, respectively. Compared to the uncorrected estimations, the ionospheric correction increased the estimation of yield and depth to 9.43 kt and 385.48 m while the tropospheric correction slightly raised them to 8.78 kt and 377.24 m. There were no obvious differences in the location estimations among the four interferograms. When both corrections were applied, the overall standard deviation was 1.16 cm, which was even larger than the ionospheric corrected interferogram. We reported the source characteristics of NKT-4 based on the modeling results derived from the ionospheric corrected interferogram. The preferred estimation of NKT-4 was a Mogi source located at 129°04′22.35‘E, 41°17′54.57″N buried at 385.48 m depth. The cavity radius caused by the underground explosion was 22.02 m. We reported the yield estimation to be 9.43 kt. This study showed that for large-scale natural deformation sources such as volcanoes and earthquakes, atmospheric corrections would be more significant, but even if the atmospheric signal did not have much complexity, the corrections should not be ignored.

Description: Light-use efficiency defines the ability of primary producers to convert sunlight energy to primary production and is computed as the ratio between the gross primary production and the intercepted photosynthetic active radiation. While this measure has been applied broadly within terrestrial ecology to investigate habitat resource-use efficiency, it remains underused within the aquatic realm. This report provides a conceptual framework to compute hourly and daily light-use efficiency using underwater O2 eddy covariance, a recent technological development that produces habitat-scale rates of primary production under unaltered in situ conditions. The analysis, tested on two benthic flux datasets, documents that hourly light-use efficiency may approach the theoretical limit of 0.125 O2 per photon under low-light conditions, but it decreases rapidly towards the middle of the day and is typically 10-fold lower on a 24 h basis. Overall, light-use efficiency provides a useful measure of habitat functioning and facilitates site comparison in time and space.

Description: SUMMARY Self-consistent modelling of magmatic systems is challenging as the melt continuously changes its chemical composition upon crystallization, which may affect the mechanical behaviour of the system. Melt extraction and subsequent crystallization create new rocks while depleting the source region. As the chemistry of the source rocks changes locally due to melt extraction, new calculations of the stable phase assemblages are required to track the rock evolution and the accompanied change in density. As a consequence, a large number of isochemical sections of stable phase assemblages are required to study the evolution of magmatic systems in detail. As the state-of-the-art melting diagrams may depend on nine oxides as well as pressure and temperature, this is a 10-D computational problem. Since computing a single isochemical section (as a function of pressure and temperature) may take several hours, computing new sections of stable phase assemblages during an ongoing geodynamic simulation is currently computationally intractable. One strategy to avoid this problem is to pre-compute these stable phase assemblages and to create a comprehensive database as a hyperdimensional phase diagram, which contains all bulk compositions that may emerge during petro-thermomechanical simulations. Establishing such a database would require repeating geodynamic simulations many times while collecting all requested compositions that may occur during a typical simulation and continuously updating the database until no additional compositions are required. Here, we describe an alternative method that is better suited for implementation on large-scale parallel computers. Our method uses the entries of an existing preliminary database to estimate future required chemical compositions. Bulk compositions are determined within boundaries that are defined manually or through principal component analysis in a parameter space consisting of clustered database entries. We have implemented both methods within a massively parallel computational framework while utilizing the Gibbs free energy minimization program Perple_X. Results show that our autonomous approach increases the resolution of the thermodynamic database in compositional regions that are most likely required for geodynamic models of magmatic systems.

Description: The solid material of protoplanetary discs forms an asymmetric pattern around a low-mass planet ($M_mathrm{p}le 10, mathrm{ M}_oplus$) due to the combined effect of dust–gas interaction and the gravitational attraction of the planet. Recently, it has been shown that although the total solid mass is negligible compared to that of gas in protoplanetary discs, a positive torque can be emerged by a certain size solid species. The torque magnitude can overcome that of gas which may result in outward planetary migration. In this study, we show that the accretion of solid species by the planet strengthens the magnitude of solid torque being either positive or negative. We run two-dimensional, high-resolution ($1.5, m {K}imes 3, m {K}$) global hydrodynamic simulations of an embedded low-mass planet in a protoplanetary disc. The solid material is handled as a pressureless fluid. Strong accretion of well-coupled solid species by an $M_mathrm{p}lesssim 0.3, mathrm{ M}_oplus$ protoplanet results in the formation of such a strongly asymmetric solid pattern close to the planet that the positive solid torque can overcome that of gas by two times. However, the accretion of solids in the pebble regime results in increased magnitude negative torque felt by protoplanets and strengthened positive torque for Earth-mass planets. For $M_mathrm{p}ge 3, mathrm{ M}_oplus$ planets, the magnitude of the solid torque is positive, however, independent of the accretion strength investigated. We conclude that the migration of solid accreting planets can be substantially departed from the canonical type-I prediction.

Description: Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF1) in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96∘ S, 14.35∘ W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign alongside aerosol optical properties from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM), profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Idealized experiments using the RRTM with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single-scattering albedo (SSA) demonstrate that shortwave (SW) heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K d−1 depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA, and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave (LW) cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single-scattering albedo assumptions in models.

Description: The coma of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko has been probed by the Rosetta spacecraft and shows a variety of different molecules. The ROSINA COmet Pressure Sensor and the Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer provide in situ densities for many volatile compounds including the 14 gas species H2O, CO2, CO, H2S, O2, C2H6, CH3OH, H2CO, CH4, NH3, HCN, C2H5OH, OCS, and CS2. We fit the observed densities during the entire comet mission between 2014 August and 2016 September to an inverse coma model. We retrieve surface emissions on a cometary shape with 3996 triangular elements for 50 separated time intervals. For each gas, we derive systematic error bounds and report the temporal evolution of the production, peak production, and the time-integrated total production. We discuss the production for the two lobes of the nucleus and for the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Moreover, we provide a comparison of the gas production with the seasonal illumination.

Description: We use KiDS weak lensing data to measure variations in mean halo mass as a function of several key galaxy properties (namely stellar colour, specific star formation rate, Sérsic index, and effective radius) for a volume-limited sample of GAMA galaxies in a narrow stellar mass range [M* ∼ (2–5) × 1010 M⊙]. This mass range is particularly interesting, inasmuch as it is where bimodalities in galaxy properties are most pronounced, and near to the break in both the galaxy stellar mass function and the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SHMR). In this narrow mass range, we find that both size and Sérsic index are better predictors of halo mass than either colour or SSFR, with the data showing a slight preference for Sérsic index. In other words, we find that mean halo mass is more tightly correlated with galaxy structure than either past star formation history or current star formation rate. Our results lead to an approximate lower bound on the dispersion in halo masses among log M* ≈ 10.5 galaxies: We find that the dispersion is ≳0.3 dex. This would imply either that offsets from the mean SHMR are closely coupled to size/structure or that the dispersion in the SHMR is larger than what past results have suggested. Our results thus provide new empirical constraints on the relationship between stellar and halo mass assembly at this particularly interesting mass range.

Description: We perform a comparative study between the only radio-detected Type I superluminous supernova (SLSN) PTF10hgi, and the most active repeating fast radio burst FRB121102. This study has its root in the hypothesized FRB-SLSN connection that states that magnetars born in SLSN can power FRBs. The wide-band spectrum (0.6–15 GHz) of PTF10hgi presented here, provides strong evidence for the magnetar wind nebular origin of the radio emission. The same spectrum also enables us to make robust estimates of the radius and the magnetic field of the radio-emitting region and demonstrates that the nebula is powered by the rotational energy of the magnetar. This spectrum is then compared with that of FRB121102 which we extend down to 400 MHz using archival data. The newly added measurements put very tight constraint on the emission models of the compact persistent source associated with FRB121102. We find that while both sources can be powered by the rotational energy of the underlying magnetar, the average energy injection rate is much higher in FRB121102. Hence, we hypothesize that, if PTF10hgi is indeed emitting fast radio bursts, those will be much weaker energetically than those from FRB121102.

Description: We propose a new intuitive metric for evaluating the tension between two experiments, and apply it to several data sets. While our metric is non-optimal, if evidence of tension is detected, this evidence is robust and easy to interpret. Assuming a flat ΛCDM cosmological model, we find that there is a modest 2.2σ tension between the DES Year 1 results and the Planck measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). This tension is driven by the difference between the amount of structure observed in the late-time Universe and that predicted from fitting the Planck data, and appears to be unrelated to the tension between Planck and local estimates of the Hubble rate. In particular, combining DES, Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), and supernovae (SNe) measurements recovers a Hubble constant and sound horizon consistent with Planck, and in tension with local distance-ladder measurements. If the tension between these various data sets persists, it is likely that reconciling all current data will require breaking the flat ΛCDM model in at least two different ways: one involving new physics in the early Universe, and one involving new late-time Universe physics.

Description: Information on global cropland distribution and agricultural production is critical for the world's agricultural monitoring and food security. We present datasets of cropland extent and agricultural production in a two-paper series of a cultivated planet in 2010. In the first part, we propose a new Self-adapting Statistics Allocation Model (SASAM) to develop the global map of cropland distribution. SASAM is based on the fusion of multiple existing cropland maps and multilevel statistics of the cropland area, which is independent of training samples. First, cropland area statistics are used to rank the input cropland maps, and then a scoring table is built to indicate the agreement among the input datasets. Secondly, statistics are allocated adaptively to the pixels with higher agreement scores until the cumulative cropland area is close to the statistics. The multilevel allocation results are then integrated to obtain the extent of cropland. We applied SASAM to produce a global cropland synergy map with a 500 m spatial resolution for circa 2010. The accuracy assessments show that the synergy map has higher accuracy than the input datasets and better consistency with the cropland statistics. The synergy cropland map is available via an open-data repository (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZWSFAA; Lu et al., 2020). This new cropland map has been used as an essential input to the Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) for producing the global dataset of agricultural production for circa 2010, which is described in the second part of the two-paper series.

Description: Transformation of refractory cratonic mantle into more fertile lithologies is the key to the fate of cratonic lithosphere. This process has been extensively studied in the eastern North China Craton (NCC) while that of its western part is still poorly constrained. A comprehensive study of newly-found pyroxenite xenoliths from the Langshan area, in the northwestern part of this craton is integrated with a regional synthesis of pyroxenite and peridotite xenoliths to constrain the petrogenesis of the pyroxenites and provide an overview of the processes involved in the modification of the deep lithosphere. The Langshan pyroxenites are of two types, high-Mg# [Mg2+/(Mg2++Fe2+)*100 = ∼ 90, atomic ratios] olivine-bearing websterites with high equilibration temperatures (880 ∼ 970 oC), and low-Mg# (70 ∼ 80) plagioclase-bearing websterites with low equilibration temperatures (550 ∼ 835 oC). The high-Mg# pyroxenites show trade-off abundances of olivine and orthopyroxene, highly depleted bulk Sr-Nd (ƐNd = +11.41, 87Sr/86Sr = ∼0.7034) and low clinopyroxene Sr isotopic ratios (mean 87Sr/86Sr = ∼0.703). They are considered to reflect the reaction of mantle peridotites with silica-rich silicate melts derived from the convective mantle. Their depletion in fusible components (e.g., FeO, TiO2 and Na2O) and progressive exhaustion of incompatible elements suggest melt extraction after their formation. The low-Mg# pyroxenites display layered structures, convex-upward rare earth element patterns, moderately enriched bulk Sr-Nd isotopic ratios (ƐNd = -14.20 ∼ -16.74, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.7070 ∼ 0.7078) and variable clinopyroxene Sr-isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr = 0.706-0.711). They are interpreted to be crustal cumulates from hypersthene-normative melts generated by interaction between the asthenosphere and heterogeneous lithospheric mantle. Combined with studies on regional peridotite xenoliths, it is shown that the thinning and refertilization of the lithospheric mantle was accompanied by crustal rejuvenation and that such processes occurred ubiquitously in the northwestern part of the NCC. A geodynamic model is proposed for the evolution of the deep lithosphere, which includes long-term mass transfer through a mantle wedge into the deep crust from the Paleozoic to the Cenozoic, triggered by subduction of the Paleo-Asian ocean and the Late Mesozoic lithospheric extension of eastern Asia.

Description: The western European kinematic evolution results from the opening of the western Neotethys and the Atlantic oceans since the late Paleozoic and the Mesozoic. Geological evidence shows that the Iberian domain recorded the propagation of these two oceanic systems well and is therefore a key to significantly advancing our understanding of the regional plate reconstructions. The late-Permian–Triassic Iberian rift basins have accommodated extension, but this tectonic stage is often neglected in most plate kinematic models, leading to the overestimation of the movements between Iberia and Europe during the subsequent Mesozoic (Early Cretaceous) rift phase. By compiling existing seismic profiles and geological constraints along the North Atlantic margins, including well data over Iberia, as well as recently published kinematic and paleogeographic reconstructions, we propose a coherent kinematic model of Iberia that accounts for both the Neotethyan and Atlantic evolutions. Our model shows that the Europe–Iberia plate boundary was a domain of distributed and oblique extension made of two rift systems in the Pyrenees and in the Iberian intra-continental basins. It differs from standard models that consider left-lateral strike-slip movement localized only in the northern Pyrenees in introducing a significant strike-slip movement south of the Ebro block. At a larger scale it emphasizes the role played by the late-Permian–Triassic rift and magmatism, as well as strike-slip faulting in the evolution of the western Neotethys Ocean and their control on the development of the Atlantic rift.

Description: This paper addresses the question of how much uncertainties in CO2 fluxes over Australia can be reduced by assimilation of total-column carbon dioxide retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite instrument. We apply a four-dimensional variational data assimilation system, based around the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) transport-dispersion model. We ran a series of observing system simulation experiments to estimate posterior error statistics of optimized monthly-mean CO2 fluxes in Australia. Our assimilations were run with a horizontal grid resolution of 81 km using OCO-2 data for 2015. Based on four representative months, we find that the integrated flux uncertainty for Australia is reduced from 0.52 to 0.13 Pg C yr−1. Uncertainty reductions of up to 90 % were found at grid-point resolution over productive ecosystems. Our sensitivity experiments show that the choice of the correlation structure in the prior error covariance plays a large role in distributing information from the observations. We also found that biases in the observations would significantly impact the inverted fluxes and could contaminate the final results of the inversion. Biases in prior fluxes are generally removed by the inversion system. Biases in the boundary conditions have a significant impact on retrieved fluxes, but this can be mitigated by including boundary conditions in our retrieved parameters. In general, results from our idealized experiments suggest that flux inversions at this unusually fine scale will yield useful information on the carbon cycle at continental and finer scales.

Description: In this paper, we present the first multiyear time series of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) ground-based measurements in the Paris region (Créteil, 48.79∘ N, 2.44∘ E, France) retrieved with the midresolution “Observations of the Atmosphere by Solar absorption Infrared Spectroscopy” (OASIS) ground-based Fourier transform infrared solar observatory. Located in an urban region, OASIS has previously been used for monitoring air quality (tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide) thanks to its specific column sensitivity across the whole troposphere down to the atmospheric boundary layer. A total of 4920 measurements of atmospheric total columns of ammonia have been obtained from 2009 to 2017, with uncertainties ranging from 20 % to 35 %, and have been compared with NH3 concentrations derived from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). OASIS ground-based measurements show significant interannual and seasonal variabilities of atmospheric ammonia. NH3 total columns over the Paris megacity (12 million people) vary seasonally by 2 orders of magnitude from approximately 0.1×1016 molec. cm−2 in winter to 10×1016 molec. cm−2 for spring peaks, probably due to springtime spreading of fertilizers on surrounding croplands.

Description: In order to track progress towards the global climate targets, the parties that signed the Paris Climate Agreement will regularly report their anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions based on energy statistics and CO2 emission factors. Independent evaluation of this self-reporting system is a fast-growing research topic. Here, we study the value of satellite observations of the column CO2 concentrations to estimate CO2 anthropogenic emissions with 5 years of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) retrievals over and around China. With the detailed information of emission source locations and the local wind, we successfully observe CO2 plumes from 46 cities and industrial regions over China and quantify their CO2 emissions from the OCO-2 observations, which add up to a total of 1.3 Gt CO2 yr−1 that accounts for approximately 13 % of mainland China's annual emissions. The number of cities whose emissions are constrained by OCO-2 here is 3 to 10 times larger than in previous studies that only focused on large cities and power plants in different locations around the world. Our satellite-based emission estimates are broadly consistent with the independent values from China's detailed emission inventory MEIC but are more different from those of two widely used global gridded emission datasets (i.e., EDGAR and ODIAC), especially for the emission estimates for the individual cities. These results demonstrate some skill in the satellite-based emission quantification for isolated source clusters with the OCO-2, despite the sparse sampling of this instrument not designed for this purpose. This skill can be improved by future satellite missions that will have a denser spatial sampling of surface emitting areas, which will come soon in the early 2020s.

Description: We develop a new large-scale hydrological and water resources model, the Community Water Model (CWatM), which can simulate hydrology both globally and regionally at different resolutions from 30 arcmin to 30 arcsec at daily time steps. CWatM is open source in the Python programming environment and has a modular structure. It uses global, freely available data in the netCDF4 file format for reading, storage, and production of data in a compact way. CWatM includes general surface and groundwater hydrological processes but also takes into account human activities, such as water use and reservoir regulation, by calculating water demands, water use, and return flows. Reservoirs and lakes are included in the model scheme. CWatM is used in the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which compares global model outputs. The flexible model structure allows for dynamic interaction with hydro-economic and water quality models for the assessment and evaluation of water management options. Furthermore, the novelty of CWatM is its combination of state-of-the-art hydrological modeling, modular programming, an online user manual and automatic source code documentation, global and regional assessments at different spatial resolutions, and a potential community to add to, change, and expand the open-source project. CWatM also strives to build a community learning environment which is able to freely use an open-source hydrological model and flexible coupling possibilities to other sectoral models, such as energy and agriculture.

Description: Fishermen are known to try to avoid fishing in stormy weather, as storms pose a physical threat to fishers, their vessels, and their gear. In this article, a dataset and methods are developed to investigate the degree to which fishers avoid storms, estimate storm aversion parameters, and explore how this response varies across vessel characteristics and across regions of the United States. The data consist of vessel-level trip-taking decisions from six federal fisheries across the United States combined with marine storm warning data from the National Weather Service. The estimates of storm aversion can be used to parameterize predictive models. Fishers’ aversion to storms decreases with increasing vessel size and increases with the severity of the storm warning. This information contributes to our understanding of the risk-to-revenue trade-off that fishers evaluate every time they consider going to sea, and of the propensity of fishers to take adaptive actions to avoid facing additional physical risk.

Description: There is currently a severe discrepancy between theoretical models of dust formation in core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), which predict $gtrsim 0.01 , { m M}_odot$ of ejecta dust forming within ∼1000 d, and observations at these epochs, which infer much lower masses. We demonstrate that, in the optically thin case, these low dust masses are robust despite significant observational and model uncertainties. For a sample of 11 well-observed CCSNe, no plausible model reaches carbon dust masses above $10^{-4} , { m M}_odot$, or silicate masses above $sim 10^{-3} , { m M}_odot$. Optically thick models can accommodate larger dust masses, but the dust must be clumped and have a low (

Description: In the past decades, severe heat waves have frequently occurred in many parts of the world. These conspicuous heat waves exerted terrible influences on human health, society, the economy, agriculture, the ecosystem and so on. Based on observed daily temperatures in China, an integrated index of heat waves and extreme-temperature days was established involving the frequency, duration, intensity and scale of these events across large cities in China. Heat waves and extreme-temperature days showed an increasing trend in most regions except northwest China from 1955 to 2014. After the late 1980s, the increasing trend was more obvious than the decades before. The cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were threatened by the most serious heat events in the past 60 years, especially Chongqing and Changsha. Due to the subtropical monsoon climate and special terrain, Chongqing experienced the most heat events in a long period of time. In particular, there was obvious fluctuation of hot years in 31 cities, which did not continuously rise with global warming; 21 cities mainly located in the eastern and southern regions of China had an obvious rising trend; eight cities had a clear declining trend which was mainly distributed in the western and northern regions of China; and there were no extreme-temperature days in Kunming and Lhasa in the past 60 years. The study revealed an obvious differentiation of heat events for 31 cities under climate change; heat threat in most cities is increasing but declining or remaining unchanged in the other cities. The trend is likely to intensify with global warming.

Description: Sardine Sardinops sagax is an ecologically and economically important Clupeid found off the entire South African coast that includes both coastal upwelling and western boundary current systems. Although the management of the sardine fisheries historically assumed a single, panmictic population, the existence of three, semi-discrete subpopulations has recently been hypothesized. We conducted otolith δ18O and microstructure analyses to investigate nursery habitat temperatures and early life growth rates, respectively, of sardine collected from three biogeographic regions around South Africa’s coast to test that hypothesis. Analyses indicated that for both summer- and winter-captured adults and summer-captured juveniles, fishes from the west coast grew significantly slower in water that was several degrees cooler than those from the south and east coasts. This suggests that mixing of sardines between regions, particularly the west and other coasts, is relatively limited and supports the hypothesis of semi-discrete subpopulations. However, the west-south differences disappeared in the results for winter-captured juveniles, suggesting that differences in early life conditions between regions may change seasonally, and/or that all or most winter-captured juveniles originated from the west coast. Further elucidating the interactions between South African sardine subpopulations and the mechanisms thereof is important for sustainable harvesting of this species.

Description: We study the relation between the UV slope, β, and the ratio between the infrared- and UV luminosities (IRX) of galaxies from TNG50, the latest installment of the IllustrisTNG galaxy formation simulations. We select 7280 star-forming main-sequence (SFMS) galaxies with stellar mass ≥109 M⊙ at redshifts 0 ≤ z ≤ 4 and perform radiative transfer with skirt to model effects of interstellar medium dust on the emitted stellar light. Assuming a Milky Way dust type and a dust-to-metal ratio of 0.3, we find that TNG50 SFMS galaxies generally agree with observationally derived IRX–β relations at z ≲ 1. However, we find a redshift-dependent systematic offset with respect to empirically derived local relations, with the TNG50 IRX–β relation shifting towards lower β and steepening at higher redshifts. This is partially driven by variations in the dust-uncorrected UV slope of galaxies, due to different star formation histories of galaxies selected at different cosmic epochs; we suggest the remainder of the effect is caused by differences in the effective dust attenuation curves of galaxies as a function of redshift. We find a typical galaxy-to-galaxy variation of 0.3 dex in infrared excess (IRX) at fixed β, correlated with intrinsic galaxy properties: galaxies with higher star formation rates, star formation efficiencies, gas metallicities and stellar masses exhibit larger IRX values. We demonstrate a degeneracy between stellar age, dust geometry, and dust composition: z = 4 galaxies with a Small Magellanic Cloud dust type follow the same IRX–β relation as low-redshift galaxies with MW dust. We provide a redshift-dependent fitting function for the IRX–β relation for MW dust based on our models.

Description: Understanding the behavior of halogens (Cl, Br, and I) in subduction zones is critical to constrain the geochemical cycle of these volatiles and associated trace metals, as well as to quantify the halogen fluxes to the atmosphere via volcanic degassing. Here, the partitioning of bromine between coexisting aqueous fluids and hydrous granitic melts and its speciation in slab-derived fluids have been investigated in situ up to 840 ∘C and 2.2 GPa by synchrotron x-ray fluorescence (SXRF) and x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) in diamond anvil cells. The partition coefficients DBrf/m range from ∼2 to ∼15, with an average value of 6.7±3.6 (1σ) over the whole pressure–temperature (P–T) range, indicating a moderate Br enrichment in aqueous fluids, in agreement with previous work. Extended x-ray-absorption fine-structure (EXAFS) analysis further evidences a gradual evolution of Br speciation from hydrated Br ions [Br(H2O)6]− in slab dehydration fluids to more complex structures involving both Na ions and water molecules, [BrNax(H2O)y], in hydrous silicate melts and supercritical fluids released at greater depth (〉 200 km). In denser fluids (ρ 〉 1.5 g cm−3) containing 60 wt % dissolved alkali–silicates and in hydrous Na2Si2O5 melts (10 wt % H2O), Br is found to be in a “salt-like” structure involving the six nearest Na ions and several next-nearest O neighbors that are either from water molecules and/or the silicate network. Bromine (and likely chlorine and iodine) complexing with alkalis is thus an efficient mechanism for the mobilization and transport of halogens by hydrous silicate melts and silica-rich supercritical fluids. Our results suggest that both shallow dehydration fluids and deeper silicate-bearing fluids efficiently remove halogens from the slab in the sub-arc region, thus favoring an efficient transfer of halogens across subduction zones.

Description: The total Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) experiences a distinct annual cycle, peaking in September and reaching its minimum in February. In this paper we propose a mathematical and statistical decomposition of this temporal variation in SIE. Each component is interpretable and, when combined, gives a complete picture of the variation in the sea ice. We consider timescales varying from the instantaneous and not previously defined to the multi-decadal curvilinear trend, the longest. Because our representation is daily, these timescales of variability give precise information about the timing and rates of advance and retreat of the ice and may be used to diagnose physical contributors to variability in the sea ice. We define a number of annual cycles each capturing different components of variation, especially the yearly amplitude and phase that are major contributors to SIE variation. Using daily sea ice concentration data, we show that our proposed invariant annual cycle explains 29 % more of the variation in daily SIE than the traditional method. The proposed annual cycle that incorporates amplitude and phase variation explains 77 % more variation than the traditional method. The variation in phase explains more of the variability in SIE than the amplitude. Using our methodology, we show that the anomalous decay of sea ice in 2016 was associated largely with a change of phase rather than amplitude. We show that the long term trend in Antarctic sea ice extent is strongly curvilinear and the reported positive linear trend is small and dependent strongly on a positive trend that began around 2011 and continued until 2016.

Description: Aerosol–cloud interactions are the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying anthropogenic radiative forcing. The large uncertainty is, in part, due to the difficulty of predicting cloud microphysical parameters, such as the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). Even though rigorous first-principle approaches exist to calculate Nd, the cloud and aerosol research community also relies on empirical approaches such as relating Nd to aerosol mass concentration. Here we analyze relationships between Nd and cloud water chemical composition, in addition to the effect of environmental factors on the degree of the relationships. Warm, marine, stratocumulus clouds off the California coast were sampled throughout four summer campaigns between 2011 and 2016. A total of 385 cloud water samples were collected and analyzed for 80 chemical species. Single- and multispecies log–log linear regressions were performed to predict Nd using chemical composition. Single-species regressions reveal that the species that best predicts Nd is total sulfate (Radj2=0.40). Multispecies regressions reveal that adding more species does not necessarily produce a better model, as six or more species yield regressions that are statistically insignificant. A commonality among the multispecies regressions that produce the highest correlation with Nd was that most included sulfate (either total or non-sea-salt), an ocean emissions tracer (such as sodium), and an organic tracer (such as oxalate). Binning the data according to turbulence, smoke influence, and in-cloud height allowed for examination of the effect of these environmental factors on the composition–Nd correlation. Accounting for turbulence, quantified as the standard deviation of vertical wind speed, showed that the correlation between Nd with both total sulfate and sodium increased at higher turbulence conditions, consistent with turbulence promoting the mixing between ocean surface and cloud base. Considering the influence of smoke significantly improved the correlation with Nd for two biomass burning tracer species in the study region, specifically oxalate and iron. When binning by in-cloud height, non-sea-salt sulfate and sodium correlated best with Nd at cloud top, whereas iron and oxalate correlated best with Nd at cloud base.

Description: Temperature, H2O, and O3 profiles, as well as CO2, N2O, CH4, chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12), and sea surface temperature (SST) scalar anomalies are computed using a clear subset of AIRS observations over ocean for the first 16 years of NASA's Earth-Observing Satellite (EOS) Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) operation. The AIRS Level-1c radiances are averaged over 16 d and 40 equal-area zonal bins and then converted to brightness temperature anomalies. Geophysical anomalies are retrieved from the brightness temperature anomalies using a relatively standard optimal estimation approach. The CO2, N2O, CH4, and CFC-12 anomalies are derived by applying a vertically uniform multiplicative shift to each gas in order to obtain an estimate for the gas mixing ratio. The minor-gas anomalies are compared to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) in situ values and used to estimate the radiometric stability of the AIRS radiances. Similarly, the retrieved SST anomalies are compared to the SST values used in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and to NOAA's Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) product. These intercomparisons strongly suggest that many AIRS channels are stable to better than 0.02 to 0.03 K per decade, well below climate trend levels, indicating that the AIRS blackbody is not drifting. However, detailed examination of the anomaly retrieval residuals (observed – computed) shows various small unphysical shifts that correspond to AIRS hardware events (shutdowns, etc.). Some examples are given highlighting how the AIRS radiance stability could be improved, especially for channels sensitive to N2O and CH4. The AIRS shortwave channels exhibit larger drifts that make them unsuitable for climate trending, and they are avoided in this work. The AIRS Level 2 surface temperature retrievals only use shortwave channels. We summarize how these shortwave drifts impacts recently published comparisons of AIRS surface temperature trends to other surface climatologies.

Description: The CloudRoots field experiment was designed to obtain a comprehensive observational dataset that includes soil, plant, and atmospheric variables to investigate the interaction between a heterogeneous land surface and its overlying atmospheric boundary layer at the sub-hourly and sub-kilometre scale. Our findings demonstrate the need to include measurements at leaf level to better understand the relations between stomatal aperture and evapotranspiration (ET) during the growing season at the diurnal scale. Based on these observations, we obtain accurate parameters for the mechanistic representation of photosynthesis and stomatal aperture. Once the new parameters are implemented, the model reproduces the stomatal leaf conductance and the leaf-level photosynthesis satisfactorily. At the canopy scale, we find a consistent diurnal pattern on the contributions of plant transpiration and soil evaporation using different measurement techniques. From highly resolved vertical profile measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other state variables, we infer a profile of the CO2 assimilation in the canopy with non-linear variations with height. Observations taken with a laser scintillometer allow us to quantify the non-steadiness of the surface turbulent fluxes during the rapid changes driven by perturbation of photosynthetically active radiation by cloud flecks. More specifically, we find 2 min delays between the cloud radiation perturbation and ET. To study the relevance of advection and surface heterogeneity for the land–atmosphere interaction, we employ a coupled surface–atmospheric conceptual model that integrates the surface and upper-air observations made at different scales from leaf to the landscape. At the landscape scale, we calculate a composite sensible heat flux by weighting measured fluxes with two different land use categories, which is consistent with the diurnal evolution of the boundary layer depth. Using sun-induced fluorescence measurements, we also quantify the spatial variability of ET and find large variations at the sub-kilometre scale around the CloudRoots site. Our study shows that throughout the entire growing season, the wide variations in stomatal opening and photosynthesis lead to large diurnal variations of plant transpiration at the leaf, plant, canopy, and landscape scales. Integrating different advanced instrumental techniques with modelling also enables us to determine variations of ET that depend on the scale where the measurement were taken and on the plant growing stage.

Description: Most available verification metrics for ensemble forecasts focus on univariate quantities. That is, they assess whether the ensemble provides an adequate representation of the forecast uncertainty about the quantity of interest at a particular location and time. For spatially indexed ensemble forecasts, however, it is also important that forecast fields reproduce the spatial structure of the observed field and represent the uncertainty about spatial properties such as the size of the area for which heavy precipitation, high winds, critical fire weather conditions, etc., are expected. In this article we study the properties of the fraction of threshold exceedance (FTE) histogram, a new diagnostic tool designed for spatially indexed ensemble forecast fields. Defined as the fraction of grid points where a prescribed threshold is exceeded, the FTE is calculated for the verification field and separately for each ensemble member. It yields a projection of a – possibly high-dimensional – multivariate quantity onto a univariate quantity that can be studied with standard tools like verification rank histograms. This projection is appealing since it reflects a spatial property that is intuitive and directly relevant in applications, though it is not obvious whether the FTE is sufficiently sensitive to misrepresentation of spatial structure in the ensemble. In a comprehensive simulation study we find that departures from uniformity of the FTE histograms can indeed be related to forecast ensembles with biased spatial variability and that these histograms detect shortcomings in the spatial structure of ensemble forecast fields that are not obvious by eye. For demonstration, FTE histograms are applied in the context of spatially downscaled ensemble precipitation forecast fields from NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System.

Description: There is a strong policy move in Britain to improve forest resilience to climate change by increasing stand structural and species diversity. Although currently little used in Britain, the technique of underplanting allows regeneration and diversification of stands while avoiding some of the disadvantages of clearfelling. Two experiments were examined: (1) the growth and survival of five underplanted conifer species of differing shade tolerance in a shelterwood and (2) compared performance of underplanted and open-grown Douglas-fir seedlings on restocking sites. Underplanted Sitka spruce, Norway spruce, noble fir, European silver fir and Douglas-fir were all able to survive and grow. However increased exposure following overstorey removal resulted in some damage and ‘socketing’, especially to taller seedlings, particularly Douglas-fir. This may be linked to poor root development when growing under an overstorey. Microclimate conditions on some underplanted sites were more sheltered from extreme climatic conditions, and in some cases this improved survival of Douglas-fir seedlings. However, seedling growth rates were reduced compared with those on open sites probably due to lower light levels. Underplanting may help to improve establishment success of some species, particularly in exposed areas. However, the shelter benefits of underplanting must be carefully balanced against the trade-off with lower light, and underplanting is likely to be more successful where low canopy density is maintained.

Description: Tilted and warped discs inside tilted dark matter haloes are predicted from numerical and semi-analytical studies. In this paper, we use deep imaging to demonstrate the likely existence of tilted outer structures in real galaxies. We consider two SB0 edge-on galaxies, NGC 4469 and NGC 4452, which exhibit apparent tilted outer discs with respect to the inner structure. In NGC 4469, this structure has a boxy shape, inclined by ΔPA ≈ 3° with respect to the inner disc, whereas NGC 4452 harbours a discy outer structure with ΔPA ≈ 6°. In spite of the different shapes, both structures have surface brightness profiles close to exponential and make a large contribution (∼30 per cent) to the total galaxy luminosity. In the case of NGC 4452, we propose that its tilted disc likely originates from a former fast tidal encounter (probably with IC 3381). For NGC 4469, a plausible explanation may also be galaxy harassment, which resulted in a tilted or even a tumbling dark matter halo. A less likely possibility is accretion of gas-rich satellites several Gyr ago. New deep observations may potentially reveal more such galaxies with tilted outer structures, especially in clusters. We also consider galaxies, mentioned in the literature, where a central component (a bar or a bulge) is tilted with respect to the stellar disc. According to our numerical simulations, one of the plausible explanations of such observed ‘tilts’ of the bulge/bar is a projection effect due to a not exactly edge-on orientation of the galaxy coupled with a skew angle of the triaxial bulge/bar.

Description: We report the discovery of a bar, a pseudo-bulge, and unresolved point source in the archetype collisional ring galaxy Cartwheel using careful morphological analysis of a near-infrared (NIR) Ks-band image of excellent quality (seeing = 0.42″) at the ESO archive. The bar is oval-shaped with a semi-major axis length of 3.23″ (∼2.09 kpc), with almost a flat light distribution along it. The bulge is almost round (ellipticity = 0.21) with an effective radius of 1.62″ (∼1.05 kpc) and a Sersic index of 0.99, parameters typical of pseudo-bulges in late-type galaxies. The newly discovered bar is not recognizable as such in the optical images even with more than a factor of 2 higher spatial resolution of the Hubble Space Telescope, due to a combination of its red colour and the presence of dusty features. The observed bar and pseudo-bulge most likely belonged to the pre-collisional progenitor of the Cartwheel. The discovery of a bar in an archetype collisional ring galaxy Cartwheel is the first observational evidence to confirm the prediction that bars can survive a drop-through collision along with the morphological structures like a central bulge (pseudo).

Description: We report the results of optical follow-up observations of 29 gravitational-wave (GW) triggers during the first half of the LIGO–Virgo Collaboration (LVC) O3 run with the Gravitational-wave Optical Transient Observer (GOTO) in its prototype 4-telescope configuration (GOTO-4). While no viable electromagnetic (EM) counterpart candidate was identified, we estimate our 3D (volumetric) coverage using test light curves of on- and off-axis gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae. In cases where the source region was observable immediately, GOTO-4 was able to respond to a GW alert in less than a minute. The average time of first observation was 8.79 h after receiving an alert (9.90 h after trigger). A mean of 732.3 square degrees were tiled per event, representing on average 45.3 per cent of the LVC probability map, or 70.3 per cent of the observable probability. This coverage will further improve as the facility scales up alongside the localization performance of the evolving GW detector network. Even in its 4-telescope prototype configuration, GOTO is capable of detecting AT2017gfo-like kilonovae beyond 200 Mpc in favourable observing conditions. We cannot currently place meaningful EM limits on the population of distant ($hat{D}_L = 1.3$ Gpc) binary black hole mergers because our test models are too faint to recover at this distance. However, as GOTO is upgraded towards its full 32-telescope, 2 node (La Palma & Australia) configuration, it is expected to be sufficiently sensitive to cover the predicted O4 binary neutron star merger volume, and will be able to respond to both northern and southern triggers.

Description: The orogenic development after the continental collision between Laurussia and Gondwana, led to two contrasting associations of mantle-derived magmatic rocks on the territory of the Bohemian Massif: (i) a 340–310 Ma lamprophyre-lamproite orogenic association and (ii) a 300–275 Ma lamprophyre association of anorogenic affinity. Major types of potassic mantle-derived magmatic rocks recognised in the orogenic and anorogenic associations include: (i) calc-alkaline to alkaline lamprophyres, (ii) alkaline “orthopyroxene minettes” (and geochemically related rocks), and (iii) peralkaline lamproites. These three types significantly differ with respect to mineral, whole-rock and Sr–Nd–Pb–Li isotope composition, and spatial distribution. The calc-alkaline lamprophyres occur throughout the entire Saxo-Thuringian and Moldanubian zones, whereas the different types of malte-derived potassic rocks are spatially restricted to particular zones. Rocks of the Carboniferous lamprophyre-lamproite orogenic association are characterised by variable negative εNd(i) and variably radiogenic Sr(i), whereas the rocks of the Permian lamprophyre association of anorogenic affinity are characterised by positive εNd(i) and relatively young depleted-mantle Nd-model ages reflecting increasing input from upwelling asthenospheric mantle. The small variation in the Pb isotopic composition of post-collisional potassic mantle-derived magmatic rocks (of both the orogenic and anorogenic series) implies that the Pb budget of the mantle beneath the Bohemian Massif is dominated by the same crust-derived material, which itself may include material derived from several sources. The source rocks of “orthopyroxene minettes” are characterised by isotopically light (“eclogitic”) Li and strongly radiogenic (crustal) Sr and may have been metasomatised by high-pressure fluids along the edge of a subduction zone. In contrast, the strongly Al2O3 and CaO depleted mantle source of the lamproites is characterised by isotopically heavy Li and high SiO2 and extreme K2O contents. This mantle source may have been metasomatised predominantly by melts. The mantle source of the lamprophyres may have undergone metasomatism by both fluids and melts.

Description: In this work, we investigate configuration formation of two inner terrestrial planets near mean motion resonance (MMR) induced by the perturbation of a distant gas giant for the Kepler-68 system, by conducting thousands of numerical simulations. The results show that the formation of terrestrial planets is relevant to the speed of type I migration, the mass of planets, and the existence of giant planet. The mass and eccentricity of the giant planet may play a crucial role in shaping the final configuration of the system. The inner planet pair can be trapped in 5:3 or 7:4 MMRs if the giant planet revolves the central star with an eccentric orbit, which is similar to the observed configuration of Kepler-68. Moreover, we find that the eccentricity of the middle planet can be excited to roughly 0.2 if the giant planet is more massive than 5 MJ; otherwise, the terrestrial planets are inclined to remain in near-circular orbits. Our study may provide a likely formation scenario for the planetary systems that harbour several terrestrial planets near MMRs inside and one gas giant exterior to them.

Description: In this paper, the performance of three machine-learning methods for predicting short-term evolution and for reproducing the long-term statistics of a multiscale spatiotemporal Lorenz 96 system is examined. The methods are an echo state network (ESN, which is a type of reservoir computing; hereafter RC–ESN), a deep feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN), and a recurrent neural network (RNN) with long short-term memory (LSTM; hereafter RNN–LSTM). This Lorenz 96 system has three tiers of nonlinearly interacting variables representing slow/large-scale (X), intermediate (Y), and fast/small-scale (Z) processes. For training or testing, only X is available; Y and Z are never known or used. We show that RC–ESN substantially outperforms ANN and RNN–LSTM for short-term predictions, e.g., accurately forecasting the chaotic trajectories for hundreds of numerical solver's time steps equivalent to several Lyapunov timescales. The RNN–LSTM outperforms ANN, and both methods show some prediction skills too. Furthermore, even after losing the trajectory, data predicted by RC–ESN and RNN–LSTM have probability density functions (pdf's) that closely match the true pdf – even at the tails. The pdf of the data predicted using ANN, however, deviates from the true pdf. Implications, caveats, and applications to data-driven and data-assisted surrogate modeling of complex nonlinear dynamical systems, such as weather and climate, are discussed.

Description: In the western Mediterranean Sea, Levantine intermediate waters (LIW), which circulate below the surface productive zone, progressively accumulate nutrients along their pathway from the Tyrrhenian Sea to the Algerian Basin. This study addresses the role played by diffusion in the nutrient enrichment of the LIW, a process particularly relevant inside step-layer structures extending down to deep waters – structures known as thermohaline staircases. Profiling float observations confirmed that staircases develop over epicentral regions confined in large-scale circulation features and maintained by saltier LIW inflows on the periphery. Thanks to a high profiling frequency over the 4-year period 2013–2017, float observations reveal the temporal continuity of the layering patterns encountered during the cruise PEACETIME and document the evolution of layer properties by about +0.06 ∘C in temperature and +0.02 in salinity. In the Algerian Basin, the analysis of in situ lateral density ratios untangled double-diffusive convection as a driver of thermohaline changes inside epicentral regions and isopycnal diffusion as a driver of heat and salt exchanges with the surrounding sources. In the Tyrrhenian Sea, the nitrate flux across thermohaline staircases, as opposed to the downward salt flux, contributes up to 25 % of the total nitrate pool supplied to the LIW by vertical transfer. Overall, however, the nutrient enrichment of the LIW is driven mostly by other sources, coastal or atmospheric, as well as by inputs advected from the Algerian Basin.

Description: Geologic dating methods for the most part do not directly measure ages. Instead, interpreting a geochemical observation as a geologically useful parameter – an age or a rate – requires an interpretive middle layer of calculations and supporting data sets. These are the subject of active research and evolve rapidly, so any synoptic analysis requires repeated recalculation of large numbers of ages from a growing data set of raw observations, using a constantly improving calculation method. Many important applications of geochronology involve regional or global analyses of large and growing data sets, so this characteristic is an obstacle to progress in these applications. This paper describes the ICE-D (Informal Cosmogenic-Nuclide Exposure-age Database) database project, a prototype computational infrastructure for dealing with this obstacle in one geochronological application – cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating – that aims to enable visualization or analysis of diverse data sets by making middle-layer calculations dynamic and transparent to the user. An important aspect of this concept is that it is designed as a forward-looking research tool rather than a backward-looking archive: only observational data (which do not become obsolete) are stored, and derived data (which become obsolete as soon as the middle-layer calculations are improved) are not stored but instead calculated dynamically at the time data are needed by an analysis application. This minimizes “lock-in” effects associated with archiving derived results subject to rapid obsolescence and allows assimilation of both new observational data and improvements to middle-layer calculations without creating additional overhead at the level of the analysis application.

Description: The recent emergence of Olive Quick Decline Syndrome in Italy, caused by Xylella fastidiosa, has drawn attention to the risks posed by this vector-borne bacterium to important crops in Europe (especially fruit trees and grapevine). Comparatively very little is known on actual and potential impacts of this pathogen in forests, in the native (North American) and introduced (European) regions, respectively. The present review aims to address important questions related to the threat posed by X. fastidiosa to European forests, such as the following: What are the symptoms, hosts and impact of bacterial leaf scorch caused by X. fastidiosa on trees in North America? Which forest tree species have been found infected in the introduction area in Europe? How does X. fastidiosa cause disease in susceptible hosts? Are there any X. fastidiosa genotypes (subspecies and sequence types) specifically associated with forest trees? How is X. fastidiosa transmitted? What are the known and potential vectors for forest trees? How does vector ecology affect disease? Is the distribution of X. fastidiosa, especially the strains associated with trees, restricted by climatic factors? Is disease risk for trees different in forest ecosystems as compared with urban settings? We conclude by pointing to important knowledge gaps related to all these questions and strongly advocate for more research about the Xylella-forest pathosystems, in both North America and Europe.

Description: The invasion of aquifer microbial communities by aboveground microorganisms, a phenomenon known as community coalescence, is likely to be exacerbated in groundwaters fed by stormwater infiltration systems (SISs). Here, the incidence of this increased connectivity with upslope soils and impermeabilized surfaces was assessed through a meta-analysis of 16S rRNA gene libraries. Specifically, DNA sequences encoding 16S rRNA V5-V6 regions from free-living and attached aquifer bacteria (i.e., water and biofilm samples) were analysed upstream and downstream of a SIS and compared with those from bacterial communities from watershed runoffs and surface sediments from the SIS detention and infiltration basins. Significant bacterial transfers were inferred by the SourceTracker Bayesian approach, with 23 % to 57 % of the aquifer bacterial biofilms being composed of taxa from aboveground sediments and urban runoffs. Sediments from the detention basin were found more significant contributors of taxa involved in the buildup of these biofilms than soils from the infiltration basin. Inferred taxa among the coalesced biofilm community were predicted to be high in hydrocarbon degraders such as Sphingobium and Nocardia. The 16S rRNA-based bacterial community structure of the downstream-SIS aquifer waters showed lower coalescence with aboveground taxa (8 % to 38 %) than those of biofilms and higher numbers of taxa predicted to be involved in the N and S cycles. A DNA marker named tpm enabled the tracking of bacterial species from 24 genera including Pseudomonas, Aeromonas and Xanthomonas, among these communities. Several tpm sequence types were found to be shared between the aboveground and aquifer samples. Reads related to Pseudomonas were allocated to 50 species, of which 16 were found in the aquifer samples. Several of these aquifer species were found to be involved in denitrification but also hydrocarbon degradation (P. aeruginosa, P. putida and P. fluorescens). Some tpm sequence types allocated to P. umsongensis and P. chengduensis were found to be enriched among the tpm-harbouring bacteria, respectively, of the aquifer biofilms and waters. Reads related to Aeromonas were allocated to 11 species, but only those from A. caviae were recovered aboveground and in the aquifer samples. Some tpm sequence types of the X. axonopodis phytopathogen  were recorded in higher proportions among the tpm-harbouring bacteria of the aquifer waters than in the aboveground samples. A significant coalescence of microbial communities from an urban watershed with those of an aquifer was thus observed, and recent aquifer biofilms were found to be significantly colonized by runoff-opportunistic taxa able to use urban C sources from aboveground compartments.

Description: Landslides are the main source of sediment in most mountain ranges. Rivers then act as conveyor belts, evacuating landslide-derived sediment. Sediment dynamics are known to influence landscape evolution through interactions among landslide sediment delivery, fluvial transport and river incision into bedrock. Sediment delivery and its interaction with river incision therefore control the pace of landscape evolution and mediate relationships among tectonics, climate and erosion. Numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) are well suited to study the interactions among these surface processes. They enable evaluation of a range of hypotheses at varying temporal and spatial scales. While many models have been used to study the dynamic interplay between tectonics, erosion and climate, the role of interactions between landslide-derived sediment and river incision has received much less attention. Here, we present HyLands, a hybrid landscape evolution model integrated within the TopoToolbox Landscape Evolution Model (TTLEM) framework. The hybrid nature of the model lies in its capacity to simulate both erosion and deposition at any place in the landscape due to fluvial bedrock incision, sediment transport, and rapid, stochastic mass wasting through landsliding. Fluvial sediment transport and bedrock incision are calculated using the recently developed Stream Power with Alluvium Conservation and Entrainment (SPACE) model. Therefore, rivers can dynamically transition from detachment-limited to transport-limited and from bedrock to bedrock–alluvial to fully alluviated states. Erosion and sediment production by landsliding are calculated using a Mohr–Coulomb stability analysis, while landslide-derived sediment is routed and deposited using a multiple-flow-direction, nonlinear deposition method. We describe and evaluate the HyLands 1.0 model using analytical solutions and observations. We first illustrate the functionality of HyLands to capture river dynamics ranging from detachment-limited to transport-limited conditions. Second, we apply the model to a portion of the Namche Barwa massif in eastern Tibet and compare simulated and observed landslide magnitude–frequency and area–volume scaling relationships. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of explicitly simulating landsliding and sediment dynamics over longer timescales for landscape evolution in general and river dynamics in particular. With HyLands we provide a new tool to understand both the long- and short-term coupling between stochastic hillslope processes, river incision and source-to-sink sediment dynamics.

Description: Landfast sea ice (fast ice) attached to Antarctic (near-)coastal elements is a critical component of the local physical and ecological systems. Through its direct coupling with the atmosphere and ocean, fast-ice properties are also a potential indicator of processes related to a changing climate. However, in situ fast-ice observations in Antarctica are extremely sparse because of logistical challenges and harsh environmental conditions. Since 2010, a monitoring program observing the seasonal evolution of fast ice in Atka Bay has been conducted as part of the Antarctic Fast Ice Network (AFIN). The bay is located on the northeastern edge of Ekström Ice Shelf in the eastern Weddell Sea, close to the German wintering station Neumayer III. A number of sampling sites have been regularly revisited each year between annual ice formation and breakup to obtain a continuous record of sea-ice and sub-ice platelet-layer thickness, as well as snow depth and freeboard across the bay. Here, we present the time series of these measurements over the last 9 years. Combining them with observations from the nearby Neumayer III meteorological observatory as well as auxiliary satellite images enables us to relate the seasonal and interannual fast-ice cycle to the factors that influence their evolution. On average, the annual consolidated fast-ice thickness at the end of the growth season is about 2 m, with a loose platelet layer of 4 m thickness beneath and 0.70 m thick snow on top. Results highlight the predominately seasonal character of the fast-ice regime in Atka Bay without a significant interannual trend in any of the observed variables over the 9-year observation period. Also, no changes are evident when comparing with sporadic measurements in the 1980s and 1990s. It is shown that strong easterly winds in the area govern the year-round snow distribution and also trigger the breakup of fast ice in the bay during summer months. Due to the substantial snow accumulation on the fast ice, a characteristic feature is frequent negative freeboard, associated flooding of the snow–ice interface, and a likely subsequent snow ice formation. The buoyant platelet layer beneath negates the snow weight to some extent, but snow thermodynamics is identified as the main driver of the energy and mass budgets for the fast-ice cover in Atka Bay. The new knowledge of the seasonal and interannual variability of fast-ice properties from the present study helps to improve our understanding of interactions between atmosphere, fast ice, ocean, and ice shelves in one of the key regions of Antarctica and calls for intensified multidisciplinary studies in this region.

Description: Chemistry plays an indispensable role in investigations of the atmosphere; however, many climate models either ignore or greatly simplify atmospheric chemistry, limiting both their accuracy and their scope. We present the development and evaluation of the online global atmospheric chemical model BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0, coupling the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) as an atmospheric chemistry component in the Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model (BCC-AGCM). The GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry component includes detailed tropospheric HOx–NOx–volatile organic compounds–ozone–bromine–aerosol chemistry and online dry and wet deposition schemes. We then demonstrate the new capabilities of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 relative to the base BCC-AGCM model through a 3-year (2012–2014) simulation with anthropogenic emissions from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The model captures well the spatial distributions and seasonal variations in tropospheric ozone, with seasonal mean biases of 0.4–2.2 ppbv at 700–400 hPa compared to satellite observations and within 10 ppbv at the surface to 500 hPa compared to global ozonesonde observations. The model has larger high-ozone biases over the tropics which we attribute to an overestimate of ozone chemical production. It underestimates ozone in the upper troposphere which is likely due either to the use of a simplified stratospheric ozone scheme or to biases in estimated stratosphere–troposphere exchange dynamics. The model diagnoses the global tropospheric ozone burden, OH concentration, and methane chemical lifetime to be 336 Tg, 1.16×106 molecule cm−3, and 8.3 years, respectively, which is consistent with recent multimodel assessments. The spatiotemporal distributions of NO2, CO, SO2, CH2O, and aerosol optical depth are generally in agreement with satellite observations. The development of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 represents an important step for the development of fully coupled earth system models (ESMs) in China.

Description: We report the results of a multiproxy study that combines structural analysis of a fracture–stylolite network and isotopic characterization of calcite vein cements and/or fault coating. Together with new paleopiezometric and radiometric constraints on burial evolution and deformation timing, these results provide a first-order picture of the regional fluid systems and pathways that were present during the main stages of contraction in the Tuscan Nappe and Umbria–Marche Apennine Ridge (northern Apennines). We reconstruct four steps of deformation at the scale of the belt: burial-related stylolitization, Apenninic-related layer-parallel shortening with a contraction trending NE–SW, local extension related to folding, and late-stage fold tightening under a contraction still striking NE–SW. We combine the paleopiezometric inversion of the roughness of sedimentary stylolites – that constrains the range of burial depth of strata prior to layer-parallel shortening – with burial models and U–Pb absolute dating of fault coatings in order to determine the timing of development of mesostructures. In the western part of the ridge, layer-parallel shortening started in Langhian time (∼15 Ma), and then folding started at Tortonian time (∼8 Ma); late-stage fold tightening started by the early Pliocene (∼5 Ma) and likely lasted until recent/modern extension occurred (∼3 Ma onward). The textural and geochemical (δ18O, δ13C, Δ47CO2 and 87Sr∕86Sr) study of calcite vein cements and fault coatings reveals that most of the fluids involved in the belt during deformation either are local or flowed laterally from the same reservoir. However, the western edge of the ridge recorded pulses of eastward migration of hydrothermal fluids (〉140 ∘C), driven by the tectonic contraction and by the difference in structural style of the subsurface between the eastern Tuscan Nappe and the Umbria–Marche Apennine Ridge.

Description: We developed the WRF-GC model, an online coupling of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model and the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model, for regional atmospheric chemistry and air quality modeling. WRF and GEOS-Chem are both open-source community models. WRF-GC offers regional modellers access to the latest GEOS-Chem chemical module, which is state of the science, well documented, traceable, benchmarked, actively developed by a large international user base, and centrally managed by a dedicated support team. At the same time, WRF-GC enables GEOS-Chem users to perform high-resolution forecasts and hindcasts for any region and time of interest. WRF-GC uses unmodified copies of WRF and GEOS-Chem from their respective sources; the coupling structure allows future versions of either one of the two parent models to be integrated into WRF-GC with relative ease. Within WRF-GC, the physical and chemical state variables are managed in distributed memory and translated between WRF and GEOS-Chem by the WRF-GC coupler at runtime. We used the WRF-GC model to simulate surface PM2.5 concentrations over China during 22 to 27 January 2015 and compared the results to surface observations and the outcomes from a GEOS-Chem Classic nested-China simulation. Both models were able to reproduce the observed spatiotemporal variations of regional PM2.5, but the WRF-GC model (r=0.68, bias =29 %) reproduced the observed daily PM2.5 concentrations over eastern China better than the GEOS-Chem Classic model did (r=0.72, bias =55 %). This was because the WRF-GC simulation, nudged with surface and upper-level meteorological observations, was able to better represent the pollution meteorology during the study period. The WRF-GC model is parallelized across computational cores and scales well on massively parallel architectures. In our tests where the two models were similarly configured, the WRF-GC simulation was 3 times more efficient than the GEOS-Chem Classic nested-grid simulation due to the efficient transport algorithm and the Message Passing Interface (MPI)-based parallelization provided by the WRF software framework. WRF-GC v1.0 supports one-way coupling only, using WRF-simulated meteorological fields to drive GEOS-Chem with no chemical feedbacks. The development of two-way coupling capabilities, i.e., the ability to simulate radiative and microphysical feedbacks of chemistry to meteorology, is under way. The WRF-GC model is open source and freely available from http://wrf.geos-chem.org (last access: 10 July 2020).

Description: In recent years, a new window on galaxy evolution opened, thanks to the increasing discovery of galaxies with a low-surface brightness, such as Ultra Diffuse Galaxies (UDGs). The formation mechanism of these systems is still a much debated question and so are their kinematical properties. In this work, we address this topic by analysing the stellar kinematics of isolated UDGs formed in the hydrodynamical simulation suite Numerical Investigation of a Hundred Astrophysical Objects (NIHAO). We construct projected line-of-sight velocity and velocity dispersion maps to compute the projected specific angular momentum, λR, to characterize the kinematical support of the stars in these galaxies. We found that UDGs cover a broad distribution, ranging from dispersion to rotation-supported galaxies, with similar abundances in both regimes. The degree of rotation support of simulated UDGs correlates with several properties such as galaxy morphology, higher H i fractions, and larger effective radii with respect to the dispersion-supported group, while the dark matter halo spin and mass accretion history are similar among the two populations. We demonstrate that the alignment of the infalling baryons into the protogalaxy at early z is the principal driver of the z = 0 stellar kinematic state: pressure-supported isolated UDGs form via misaligned gas accretion while rotation-supported ones build up their baryons in an ordered manner. Accounting for random inclination effects, we predict that a comprehensive survey will find nearly half of field UDGs to have rotationally supported stellar discs, when selecting UDGs with effective radius larger than 1 kpc.

Description: Mixed-method bicultural research in Aotearoa New Zealand, including the weaving of Indigenous and other knowledge, is emerging within many academic disciplines. However, mātauranga Māori (the knowledge, culture, values, and world view of the Indigenous peoples of Aotearoa New Zealand) and Te Ao Māori (the Māori world) is poorly represented within geomorphological investigations. Here, we review international efforts to include Indigenous knowledge in geologic and geomorphic studies and provide an overview of the current state of mātauranga Māori within research endeavours in Aotearoa New Zealand. We review three theoretical frameworks (i.e. methodologies) for including mātauranga Māori in research projects and three models (i.e. methods) for including Māori values within research. We identify direct benefits to geomorphology and discuss how these frameworks and models can be adapted for use with Indigenous knowledge systems outside of Aotearoa New Zealand. The aim of this review is to encourage geomorphologists around the world to engage with local Indigenous peoples to develop new approaches to geomorphic research. In Aotearoa New Zealand, we hope to inspire geomorphologists to embark on research journeys in genuine partnership with Māori that promote toitū te mātauranga – the enduring protection, promotion and respect of mātauranga Māori.

Description: Suspended sediment load in rivers is highly uncertain because sediment production and transport at catchment scale are strongly variable in space and time, and they are affected by catchment hydrology, topography, and land cover. Among the main sources of this variability are the spatially distributed nature of overland flow as an erosion driver and of surface erodibility given by soil type and vegetation cover distribution. Temporal variability mainly results from the time sequence of rainfall intensity during storms and snowmelt leading to soil saturation and overland flow. We present a new spatially distributed soil erosion and suspended sediment transport module integrated into the computationally efficient physically based hydrological model TOPKAPI-ETH, with which we investigate the effects of the two erosion drivers – precipitation and surface erodibility – on catchment sediment fluxes in a typical pre-Alpine mesoscale catchment. By conducting a series of numerical experiments, we quantify the impact of spatial variability in the two key erosion drivers on erosion–deposition patterns, sediment delivery ratio, and catchment sediment yields. Main findings are that the spatial variability in erosion drivers affects sediment yield by (i) increasing sediment production due to a spatially variable precipitation, while decreasing it due to a spatially variable surface erodibility, (ii) favouring the clustering of sediment source areas in space by surface runoff generation, and (iii) decreasing their connectivity to the river network by magnifying sediment buffers. The results highlight the importance of resolving spatial gradients controlling hydrology and sediment processes when modelling sediment dynamics at the mesoscale, in order to capture the key effects of sediment sources, buffers, and hillslope hydrological pathways in determining the sediment signal.

Description: Atmospheric mineral dust influences Earth's radiative budget, cloud formation, and lifetime; has adverse health effects; and affects air quality through the increase of regulatory PM10 concentrations, making its real-time quantification in the atmosphere of strategic importance. Only few near-real-time techniques can discriminate dust aerosol in PM10 samples and they are based on the dust chemical composition. The online determination of mineral dust using aerosol absorption photometers offers an interesting and competitive alternative but remains a difficult task to achieve. This is particularly challenging when dust is mixed with black carbon, which features a much higher mass absorption cross section. We build on previous work using filter photometers and present here for the first time a highly time-resolved online technique for quantification of mineral dust concentration by coupling a high-flow virtual impactor (VI) sampler that concentrates coarse particles with an aerosol absorption photometer (Aethalometer, model AE33). The absorption of concentrated dust particles is obtained by subtracting the absorption of the submicron (PM1) aerosol fraction from the absorption of the virtual impactor sample (VI-PM1 method). This real-time method for detecting desert dust was tested in the field for a period of 2 months (April and May 2016) at a regional background site of Cyprus, in the Eastern Mediterranean. Several intense desert mineral dust events were observed during the field campaign with dust concentration in PM10 up to 45 µg m−3. Mineral dust was present most of the time during the campaign with an average PM10 of about 8 µg m−3. Mineral dust absorption was most prominent at short wavelengths, yielding an average mass absorption cross section (MAC) of 0.24±0.01 m2 g−1 at 370 nm and an absorption Ångström exponent of 1.41±0.29. This MAC value can be used as a site-specific parameter for online determination of mineral dust concentration. The uncertainty of the proposed method is discussed by comparing and validating it with different methods.

Description: Dry–rewetting perturbations are natural disturbances in the edaphic environment and particularly in dryland cultivation areas. The interaction of this disturbance with glyphosate-based herbicides (GBHs) deserves special attention in the soil environment due to the intensification of agricultural practices and the acceleration of climate change with an intensified water cycle. The objective of this study was to assess the response of microbial communities in a soil with a long history of GBHs to a secondary imposed perturbation (a single dry–rewetting event). A factorial microcosm study was conducted to evaluate the potential conditioning effect of an acute glyphosate exposure on the response to a following dry–rewetting event. A respiratory quotient (RQ) based on an ecologically relevant substrate (p-coumaric acid) and basal respiration was used as a physiological indicator. Similarly, DNA-based analyses were considered, including quantitative PCR (qPCR) of functional sensitive microbial groups linked to cycles of carbon (Actinobacteria) and nitrogen (ammonia-oxidizing microorganisms), qPCR of total bacteria and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB). Significant effects of herbicide and of dry–rewetting perturbations were observed in the RQ and in the copy number of the amoA gene of AOB, respectively. However, no significant interaction was observed between them when analyzing the physiological indicator and the copy number of the evaluated genes. PCR–DGGE results were not conclusive regarding a potential effect of dry–rewetting × herbicide interaction on AOB community structure, suggesting further analysis by deep sequencing of the amoA gene. The results of this study indicate that the perturbation of an acute glyphosate exposure in a soil with a long history of this herbicide does not have a conditioning effect on the response to a subsequent dry–rewetting disturbance according to a physiological indicator or the quantified bacterial/archaeal genes. This is particularly relevant for the sustainability of soils in rainfed agriculture, where frequent exposure to GBHs along with intensification of hydrological cycles are expected to occur. Further studies considering multiple dry–rewetting disturbances and in different soil types should be conducted to simulate those conditions and to validate our results.

Description: Storm tides are a major hazard for the German North Sea coasts. For coastal protection and economic activities, planning information on the probability and magnitude of extreme storm tides and their possible future changes is important. This study focuses on the most extreme events and examines whether they could have become more severe under slightly different conditions while still remaining within physical plausibility. In the face of a limited number of observational data on very severe events, an extensive set of model data is used to extract most extreme storm tide events for locations in the German Bight, in particular Borkum and the Ems estuary. The data set includes water levels and respective atmospheric conditions from a hindcast and future climate realizations without sea level rise describing today's and possible future conditions. A number of very severe events with water levels exceeding those measured near Borkum since 1906 are identified in the data set. A possible further amplification of the highest events is investigated by simulating these events for the North Sea with different phase lags between the astronomical tide given at the open model boundaries and the wind forcing. It is found that superposition of spring tide conditions, different timing of the astronomical high water and atmospheric conditions during the highest storm event would cause an enhancement of the highest water level up to about 50 cm. The water levels of the two highest events from the data set are used to analyse the effects in the Ems estuary using a high-resolution model of the German Bight. Additionally, the influences of an extreme river runoff and of sea level rise are studied. The extreme river runoff of 1200 m3 s−1 increases the highest water levels by several decimetres in the narrow upstream part of the Ems estuary. This effect diminishes downstream. The sea level rise increases the water level in the downstream part of the Ems estuary by the amount applied at the model boundary to the North Sea. In the upstream part, its influence on the water level decreases. This study may serve as a first step towards an impact assessment for severe storm tides and towards implications for coastal zone management in times of climate change.

Description: More than 300 non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) CO2 low-cost sensors labelled as LP8 were integrated into sensor units and evaluated for the purpose of long-term operation in the Carbosense CO2 sensor network in Switzerland. Prior to deployment, all sensors were calibrated in a pressure and climate chamber and in ambient conditions co-located with a reference instrument. To investigate their long-term performance and to test different data processing strategies, 18 sensors were deployed at five locations equipped with a reference instrument after calibration. Their accuracy during 19 to 25 months deployment was between 8 and 12 ppm. This level of accuracy requires careful sensor calibration prior to deployment, continuous monitoring of the sensors, efficient data filtering, and a procedure to correct drifts and jumps in the sensor signal during operation. High relative humidity (〉 ∼85 %) impairs the LP8 measurements, and corresponding data filtering results in a significant loss during humid conditions. The LP8 sensors are not suitable for the detection of small regional gradients and long-term trends. However, with careful data processing, the sensors are able to resolve CO2 changes and differences with a magnitude larger than about 30 ppm. Thereby, the sensor can resolve the site-specific CO2 signal at most locations in Switzerland. A low-power network (LPN) using LoRaWAN allowed for reliable data transmission with low energy consumption and proved to be a key element of the Carbosense low-cost sensor network.

Description: Peatlands store ∼ 20 %–30 % of the global soil organic carbon stock and are an important source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) for inland waters. Recent improvements for in situ optical monitoring revealed that the DOC concentration in streams draining peatlands is highly variable, showing seasonal variation and short and intense DOC concentration peaks. This study aimed to statistically determine the variables driving stream DOC concentration variations at seasonal and event scales. Two mountainous peatlands (one fen and one bog) were monitored in the French Pyrenees to capture their outlet DOC concentration variability at a high-frequency rate (30 min). Abiotic variables including precipitation, stream temperature and water level, water table depth, and peat water temperature were also monitored at high frequency and used as potential predictors to explain DOC concentration variability. Results show that at both sites DOC concentration time series can be decomposed into a seasonal baseline interrupted by many short and intense peaks of higher concentrations. The DOC concentration baseline is driven, at the seasonal scale, by peat water temperature. At the event scale, DOC concentration increases are mostly driven by a rise in the water table within the peat at both sites. Univariate linear models between DOC concentration and peat water temperature or water table increases show greater efficiency at the fen site. Water recession times were derived from water level time series using master recession curve coefficients. They vary greatly between the two sites but also within one peatland site. They partly explain the differences between DOC dynamics in the studied peatlands, including peat porewater DOC concentrations and the links between stream DOC concentration and water table rise within the peatlands. This highlights that peatland complexes are composed of a mosaic of heterogeneous peat units distinctively producing or transferring DOC to streams.

Description: Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is an important gateway for nutrients and pollutants from land to sea. While understanding SGD is crucial for managing nearshore ecosystems and coastal freshwater reserves, studying this discharge is complicated by its occurrence at the limit between land and sea, a dynamic environment. This practical difficulty is exacerbated by the significant spatial and temporal variability. Therefore, to capture the magnitude of SGD, a variety of techniques and measurements, applied over multiple periods, is needed. Here, we combine several geophysical methods to detect zones of fresh submarine groundwater discharge (FSGD) in the intertidal zone, upper beach, dunes, and shallow coastal area. Both terrestrial electrical-resistivity tomography (ERT; roll-along) and marine continuous resistivity profiling (CRP) are used from the shallow continental shelf up to the dunes and combined with frequency domain electromagnetic (FDEM) mapping in the intertidal zone. In particular, we apply an estimation of robust apparent electrical conductivity (rECa) from FDEM data to provide reliable lateral and vertical discrimination of FSGD zones. The study area is a very dynamic environment along the North Sea, characterized by semi-diurnal tides between 3 and 5 m. CRP is usually applied in calmer conditions, but we prove that such surveys are possible and provide additional information to primarily land-bound ERT surveying. The 2D inversion models created from ERT and CRP data clearly indicate the presence of FSGD on the lower beach or below the low-water line. This discharge originates from a potable freshwater lens below the dunes and flows underneath a thick saltwater lens, present from the dunes to the lower sandy beach, which is fully observed with ERT. Freshwater outflow intensity has increased since 1980, due to a decrease of groundwater pumping in the dunes. FDEM mapping at two different times reveals discharge at the same locations, clearly displays the lateral variation of the zone of discharge, and suggests that FSGD is stronger at the end of winter compared to the beginning of autumn. ERT, CRP, and FDEM are complementary tools in the investigation of SGD. They provide a high-resolution 3D image of the saltwater and freshwater distribution in the phreatic coastal aquifer over a relatively large area, both off- and onshore.

Description: SUMMARY We present a statistical rock physics inversion of the elastic and electrical properties to estimate the petrophysical properties and quantify the associated uncertainty. The inversion method combines statistical rock physics modeling with Bayesian inverse theory. The model variables of interest are porosity and fluid saturations. The rock physics model includes the elastic and electrical components and can be applied to the results of seismic and electromagnetic inversion. To describe the non-Gaussian behaviour of the model properties, we adopt non-parametric probability density functions to sample multimodal and skewed distributions of the model variables. Different from machine learning approach, the proposed method is not completely data-driven but is based on a statistical rock physics model to link the model parameters to the data. The proposed method provides pointwise posterior distributions of the porosity and CO2 saturation along with the most-likely models and the associated uncertainty. The method is validated using synthetic and real data acquired for CO2 sequestration studies in different formations: the Rock Springs Uplift in Southwestern Wyoming and the Johansen formation in the North Sea, offshore Norway. The proposed approach is validated under different noise conditions and compared to traditional parametric approaches based on Gaussian assumptions. The results show that the proposed method provides an accurate inversion framework where instead of fitting the relationship between the model and the data, we account for the uncertainty in the rock physics model.

Description: The Be X-ray binary GRO J2058+42 recently went through a Type-II outburst during 2019 March–April lasting for about 50 d. This outburst was detected with the operating all sky X-ray monitors like the Fermi-GBM, Swift-BAT, and MAXI-GSC. Two Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array(NuSTAR) observations were also made, one during the rise and other during the decay of the outburst. It gave us the unique opportunity to analyse the broad-band characteristics of the pulsar for the first time and accretion torque characteristics of the pulsar over a range of X-ray luminosity. The pulse profiles are strongly energy-dependent, with at least four different pulse components at low energy (〈 20 keV), which evolves to a single-peaked profile at high energy (〉 30 keV). In each of the narrow energy bands, the pulse profiles are nearly identical in the two NuSTAR observations. The spectra from both the observations are fitted well to a power-law with a Fermi–Dirac-type high-energy cutoff. We ruled out presence of a cyclotron line in the pulse phase averaged X-ray spectrum in the NuSTAR band with an optical depth greater than 0.15. An iron emission line is detected in both the NuSTAR spectra with an equivalent width of about 125 eV. We looked at the dependence of the spin-up rate on the luminosity and estimated the magnetic field strength from that, which came out to be much higher compared to other known BeXRB pulsars. Lastly, we discussed the inadequacy of the torque–luminosity relation for determination of magnetic field strength of neutron stars.