ALBERT

Beschreibung: A unique automated planetary boundary layer (PBL) retrieval algorithm is proposed as a common cross-platform method for use with commercially available ceilometers for implementation under the redesigned U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations program. This algorithm addresses instrument signal quality and screens for precipitation and cloud layers before the implementation of the retrieval methodology using the Haar wavelet covariance transform method. Layer attribution for the PBL height is supported with the use of continuation and time-tracking parameters, and uncertainties are calculated for individual PBL height retrievals. Commercial ceilometer retrievals are tested against radiosonde PBL height and cloud-base height during morning and late afternoon transition times, critical to air quality model prediction and when retrieval algorithms struggle to identify PBL heights. A total of 58 radiosonde profiles were used and retrievals for nocturnal stable layers, residual layers and mixing layers were assessed. Overall good agreement was found for all comparisons with one system showing limitations for the cases of nighttime surface stable layers and daytime mixing layer. It is recommended that nighttime shallow stable layer retrievals be performed with a recommended minimum height or with additional verification. Retrievals of residual layer heights and mixing layer comparisons revealed overall good correlations to radiosonde heights (correlation coefficients, r2, ranging from 0.89 – 0.96 and bias ranging from ~ -131 to +63 m, and r2 from 0.88 – 0.97 and bias from -119 to +101 m, respectively).

Beschreibung: When cumulonimbus clouds aggregate, developing into a single entity with precipitation covering a horizontal scale of hundreds of kilometers, they are called mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). They account for much of Earth’s precipitation, generate severe weather events and flooding, produce prodigious cirriform anvil clouds, and affect the evolution of the larger-scale circulation. Understanding the inner workings of MCSs has resulted from developments in observational technology and modeling. Time–space conversion of ordinary surface and upper-air observations provided early insight into MCSs, but deeper understanding has followed field campaigns using increasingly sophisticated radars, better aircraft instrumentation, and an ever-widening range of satellite instruments, especially satellite-borne radars. High-resolution modeling and theoretical insights have shown that aggregated cumulonimbus clouds induce a mesoscale circulation consisting of air overturning on a scale larger than the scale of individual convective up- and downdrafts. These layers can be kilometers deep and decoupled from the boundary layer in elevated MCSs. Cooling in the lower troposphere and heating aloft characterize the stratiform regions of MCSs. As a result, long-lived MCSs with large stratiform regions have a top-heavy heating profile that generates potential vorticity in midlevels, thus influencing the larger-scale circulation within which the MCSs occur. Global satellite data show MCSs varying in structure, depending on the prevailing large-scale circulation and topography. These patterns are likely to change with global warming. In addition, environmental pollution affects MCS structure and dynamics subtly. Feedbacks of MCSs therefore need to be included or parameterized in climate models.

Beschreibung: We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application, and utilization of “radiative forcing” (RF) of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and longwave radiation were developed through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the nineteenth century, gained empirical support with sustained observations of the atmospheric concentrations of the gas beginning in 1957. Advances in laboratory and field measurements, theory, instrumentation, computational technology, data, and analysis of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the global climate system through the twentieth century enabled the development and formalism of RF; this allowed RF to be related to changes in global-mean surface temperature with the aid of increasingly sophisticated models. This in turn led to RF becoming firmly established as a principal concept in climate science by 1990. The linkage with surface temperature has proven to be the most important application of the RF concept, enabling a simple metric to evaluate the relative climate impacts of different agents. The late 1970s and 1980s saw accelerated developments in quantification, including the first assessment of the effect of the forcing due to the doubling of carbon dioxide on climate (the “Charney” report). The concept was subsequently extended to a wide variety of agents beyond well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs; carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons) to short-lived species such as ozone. The WMO and IPCC international assessments began the important sequence of periodic evaluations and quantifications of the forcings by natural (solar irradiance changes and stratospheric aerosols resulting from volcanic eruptions) and a growing set of anthropogenic agents (WMGHGs, ozone, aerosols, land surface changes, contrails). From the 1990s to the present, knowledge and scientific confidence in the radiative agents acting on the climate system have proliferated. The conceptual basis of RF has also evolved as both our understanding of the way radiative forcing drives climate change and the diversity of the forcing mechanisms have grown. This has led to the current situation where “effective radiative forcing” (ERF) is regarded as the preferred practical definition of radiative forcing in order to better capture the link between forcing and global-mean surface temperature change. The use of ERF, however, comes with its own attendant issues, including challenges in its diagnosis from climate models, its applications to small forcings, and blurring of the distinction between rapid climate adjustments (fast responses) and climate feedbacks; this will necessitate further elaboration of its utility in the future. Global climate model simulations of radiative perturbations by various agents have established how the forcings affect other climate variables besides temperature (e.g., precipitation). The forcing–response linkage as simulated by models, including the diversity in the spatial distribution of forcings by the different agents, has provided a practical demonstration of the effectiveness of agents in perturbing the radiative energy balance and causing climate changes. The significant advances over the past half century have established, with very high confidence, that the global-mean ERF due to human activity since preindustrial times is positive (the 2013 IPCC assessment gives a best estimate of 2.3 W m−2, with a range from 1.1 to 3.3 W m−2; 90% confidence interval). Further, except in the immediate aftermath of climatically significant volcanic eruptions, the net anthropogenic forcing dominates over natural radiative forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, the substantial remaining uncertainty in the net anthropogenic ERF leads to large uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity from observations and in predicting future climate impacts. The uncertainty in the ERF arises principally from the incorporation of the rapid climate adjustments in the formulation, the well-recognized difficulties in characterizing the preindustrial state of the atmosphere, and the incomplete knowledge of the interactions of aerosols with clouds. This uncertainty impairs the quantitative evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation pathways in the future. A grand challenge in Earth system science lies in continuing to sustain the relatively simple essence of the radiative forcing concept in a form similar to that originally devised, and at the same time improving the quantification of the forcing. This, in turn, demands an accurate, yet increasingly complex and comprehensive, accounting of the relevant processes in the climate system.

Beschreibung: Selected concentrations of ice crystal concentrations attributable to nucleation are compiled and summarized. The variability in the observations is discussed, and some conclusions related to natural precipitation formation and to seedability are discussed.

Beschreibung: The microphysical processes inside convective clouds play an important role in climate. They directly control the amount of detrainment of cloud hydrometeor and water vapor from updrafts. The detrained water substance in turn affects the anvil cloud formation, upper-tropospheric water vapor distribution, and thus the atmospheric radiation budget. In global climate models, convective parameterization schemes have not explicitly represented microphysics processes in updrafts until recently. In this paper, the authors provide a review of existing schemes for convective microphysics parameterization. These schemes are broadly divided into three groups: tuning-parameter-based schemes (simplest), single-moment schemes, and two-moment schemes (most comprehensive). Common weaknesses of the tuning-parameter-based and single-moment schemes are outlined. Examples are presented from one of the two-moment schemes to demonstrate the performance of the scheme in simulating the hydrometeor distribution in convection and its representation of the effect of aerosols on convection.

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: Today’s global Earth system models began as simple regional models of tropospheric weather systems. Over the past century, the physical realism of the models has steadily increased, while the scope of the models has broadened to include the global troposphere and stratosphere, the ocean, the vegetated land surface, and terrestrial ice sheets. This chapter gives an approximately chronological account of the many and profound conceptual and technological advances that made today’s models possible. For brevity, we omit any discussion of the roles of chemistry and biogeochemistry, and terrestrial ice sheets.

Beschreibung: In situ observations of cloud properties made by airborne probes play a critical role in ice cloud research through their role in process studies, parameterization development, and evaluation of simulations and remote sensing retrievals. To determine how cloud properties vary with environmental conditions, in situ data collected during different field projects processed by different groups must be used. However, because of the diverse algorithms and codes that are used to process measurements, it can be challenging to compare the results. Therefore it is vital to understand both the limitations of specific probes and uncertainties introduced by processing algorithms. Since there is currently no universally accepted framework regarding how in situ measurements should be processed, there is a need for a general reference that describes the most commonly applied algorithms along with their strengths and weaknesses. Methods used to process data from bulk water probes, single-particle light-scattering spectrometers and cloud-imaging probes are reviewed herein, with emphasis on measurements of the ice phase. Particular attention is paid to how uncertainties, caveats, and assumptions in processing algorithms affect derived products since there is currently no consensus on the optimal way of analyzing data. Recommendations for improving the analysis and interpretation of in situ data include the following: establishment of a common reference library of individual processing algorithms, better documentation of assumptions used in these algorithms, development and maintenance of sustainable community software for processing in situ observations, and more studies that compare different algorithms with the same benchmark datasets.

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: The central change in understanding of the ocean circulation during the past 100 years has been its emergence as an intensely time-dependent, effectively turbulent and wave-dominated, flow. Early technologies for making the difficult observations were adequate only to depict large-scale, quasi-steady flows. With the electronic revolution of the past 50+ years, the emergence of geophysical fluid dynamics, the strongly inhomogeneous time-dependent nature of oceanic circulation physics finally emerged. Mesoscale (balanced), submesoscale oceanic eddies at 100-km horizontal scales and shorter, and internal waves are now known to be central to much of the behavior of the system. Ocean circulation is now recognized to involve both eddies and larger-scale flows with dominant elements and their interactions varying among the classical gyres, the boundary current regions, the Southern Ocean, and the tropics.

Beschreibung: The authors present an observationally based evaluation of the vertically resolved cloud ice water content (CIWC) and vertically integrated cloud ice water path (CIWP) as well as radiative shortwave flux downward at the surface (RSDS), reflected shortwave (RSUT), and radiative longwave flux upward at top of atmosphere (RLUT) of present-day global climate models (GCMs), notably twentieth-century simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and compare these results to those of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) and two recent reanalyses. Three different CloudSat and/or Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) combined ice water products and two methods are used to remove the contribution from the convective core ice mass and/or precipitating cloud hydrometeors with variable sizes and falling speeds so that a robust observational estimate can be obtained for model evaluations. The results show that, for annual mean CIWC and CIWP, there are factors of 2–10 (either over- or underestimate) in the differences between observations and models for a majority of the GCMs and for a number of regions. Most of the GCMs in CMIP3 and CMIP5 significantly underestimate the total ice water mass because models only consider suspended cloud mass, ignoring falling and convective core cloud mass. For the annual means of RSDS, RLUT, and RSUT, a majority of the models have significant regional biases ranging from −30 to 30 W m−2. Based on these biases in the annual means, there is virtually no progress in the simulation fidelity of RSDS, RLUT, and RSUT fluxes from CMIP3 to CMIP5, even though there is about a 50% bias reduction improvement of global annual mean CIWP from CMIP3 to CMIP5. It is concluded that at least a part of these persistent biases stem from the common GCM practice of ignoring the effects of precipitating and/or convective core ice and liquid in their radiation calculations.

Beschreibung: This chapter reviews the history of the discovery of cloud nuclei and their impacts on cloud microphysics and the climate system. Pioneers including John Aitken, Sir John Mason, Hilding Köhler, Christian Junge, Sean Twomey, and Kenneth Whitby laid the foundations of the field. Through their contributions and those of many others, rapid progress has been made in the last 100 years in understanding the sources, evolution, and composition of the atmospheric aerosol, the interactions of particles with atmospheric water vapor, and cloud microphysical processes. Major breakthroughs in measurement capabilities and in theoretical understanding have elucidated the characteristics of cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles and the role these play in shaping cloud microphysical properties and the formation of precipitation. Despite these advances, not all their impacts on cloud formation and evolution have been resolved. The resulting radiative forcing on the climate system due to aerosol–cloud interactions remains an unacceptably large uncertainty in future climate projections. Process-level understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions remains insufficient to support technological mitigation strategies such as intentional weather modification or geoengineering to accelerating Earth-system-wide changes in temperature and weather patterns.

Beschreibung: Over the past 100 years, the collaborative effort of the international science community, including government weather services and the media, along with the associated proliferation of environmental observations, improved scientific understanding, and growth of technology, has radically transformed weather forecasting into an effective global and regional environmental prediction capability. This chapter traces the evolution of forecasting, starting in 1919 [when the American Meteorological Society (AMS) was founded], over four eras separated by breakpoints at 1939, 1956, and 1985. The current state of forecasting could not have been achieved without essential collaboration within and among countries in pursuing the common weather and Earth-system prediction challenge. AMS itself has had a strong role in enabling this international collaboration.

Beschreibung: The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it was the year that the American Meteorological Society was founded, but also for two other reasons. One of the foundational papers in extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes was published in 1919, leading to what is now known as the Norwegian cyclone model. Also that year, a series of meetings was held that led to the formation of organizations that promoted the international collaboration and scientific exchange required for extratropical cyclone research, which by necessity involves spatial scales spanning national borders. This chapter describes the history of scientific inquiry into the structure, evolution, and dynamics of extratropical cyclones, their constituent fronts, and their attendant jet streams and storm tracks. We refer to these phenomena collectively as the centerpiece of meteorology because of their central role in fostering meteorological research during this century. This extremely productive period in extratropical cyclone research has been possible because of 1) the need to address practical challenges of poor forecasts that had large socioeconomic consequences, 2) the intermingling of theory, observations, and diagnosis (including dynamical modeling) to provide improved physical understanding and conceptual models, and 3) strong international cooperation. Conceptual frameworks for cyclones arise from a desire to classify and understand cyclones; they include the Norwegian cyclone model and its sister the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model. The challenge of understanding the dynamics of cyclones led to such theoretical frameworks as quasigeostrophy, baroclinic instability, semigeostrophy, and frontogenesis. The challenge of predicting explosive extratropical cyclones in particular led to new theoretical developments such as potential-vorticity thinking and downstream development. Deeper appreciation of the limits of predictability has resulted from an evolution from determinism to chaos. Last, observational insights led to detailed cyclone and frontal structure, storm tracks, and rainbands.

Beschreibung: Mountains significantly influence weather and climate on Earth, including disturbed surface winds; altered distribution of precipitation; gravity waves reaching the upper atmosphere; and modified global patterns of storms, fronts, jet streams, and climate. All of these impacts arise because Earth’s mountains penetrate deeply into the atmosphere. This penetration can be quantified by comparing mountain heights to several atmospheric reference heights such as density scale height, water vapor scale height, airflow blocking height, and the height of natural atmospheric layers. The geometry of Earth’s terrain can be analyzed quantitatively using statistical, matrix, and spectral methods. In this review, we summarize how our understanding of orographic effects has progressed over 100 years using the equations for atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics, numerical modeling, and many clever in situ and remote sensing methods. We explore how mountains disturb the surface winds on our planet, including mountaintop winds, severe downslope winds, barrier jets, gap jets, wakes, thermally generated winds, and cold pools. We consider the variety of physical mechanisms by which mountains modify precipitation patterns in different climate zones. We discuss the vertical propagation of mountain waves through the troposphere into the stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere. Finally, we look at how mountains distort the global-scale westerly winds that circle the poles and how varying ice sheets and mountain uplift and erosion over geologic time may have contributed to climate change.

Beschreibung: Yanai and coauthors utilized the meteorological data collected from a sounding network to present a pioneering work in 1973 on thermodynamic budgets, which are referred to as the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). Latent heating (LH) is one of the most dominant terms in Q1. Yanai’s paper motivated the development of satellite-based LH algorithms and provided a theoretical background for imposing large-scale advective forcing into cloud-resolving models (CRMs). These CRM-simulated LH and Q1 data have been used to generate the look-up tables in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) LH algorithms. A set of algorithms developed for retrieving LH profiles from TRMM-based rainfall profiles is described and evaluated, including details concerning their intrinsic space–time resolutions. Included in the paper are results from a variety of validation analyses that define the uncertainty of the LH profile estimates. Also, examples of how TRMM-retrieved LH profiles have been used to understand the life cycle of the MJO and improve the predictions of global weather and climate models as well as comparisons with large-scale analyses are provided. Areas for further improvement of the TRMM products are discussed.

Beschreibung: The stratosphere contains ~17% of Earth’s atmospheric mass, but its existence was unknown until 1902. In the following decades our knowledge grew gradually as more observations of the stratosphere were made. In 1913 the ozone layer, which protects life from harmful ultraviolet radiation, was discovered. From ozone and water vapor observations, a first basic idea of a stratospheric general circulation was put forward. Since the 1950s our knowledge of the stratosphere and mesosphere has expanded rapidly, and the importance of this region in the climate system has become clear. With more observations, several new stratospheric phenomena have been discovered: the quasi-biennial oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, the Southern Hemisphere ozone hole, and surface weather impacts of stratospheric variability. None of these phenomena were anticipated by theory. Advances in theory have more often than not been prompted by unexplained phenomena seen in new stratospheric observations. From the 1960s onward, the importance of dynamical processes and the coupled stratosphere–troposphere circulation was realized. Since approximately 2000, better representations of the stratosphere—and even the mesosphere—have been included in climate and weather forecasting models. We now know that in order to produce accurate seasonal weather forecasts, and to predict long-term changes in climate and the future evolution of the ozone layer, models with a well-resolved stratosphere with realistic dynamics and chemistry are necessary.

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: Satellite meteorology is a relatively new branch of the atmospheric sciences. The field emerged in the late 1950s during the Cold War and built on the advances in rocketry after World War II. In less than 70 years, satellite observations have transformed the way scientists observe and study Earth. This paper discusses some of the key advances in our understanding of the energy and water cycles, weather forecasting, and atmospheric composition enabled by satellite observations. While progress truly has been an international achievement, in accord with a monograph observing the centennial of the American Meteorological Society, as well as limited space, the emphasis of this chapter is on the U.S. satellite effort.

Beschreibung: The authors survey a series of modeling studies that have examined the influences that cloud microphysical processes can have on tropical cyclone (TC) motion, the strength and breadth of the wind field, inner-core diabatic heating asymmetries, outer-core convective activity, and the characteristics of the TC anvil cloud. These characteristics are sensitive to the microphysical parameterization (MP) in large part owing to the cloud-radiative forcing (CRF), the interaction of hydrometeors with radiation. The most influential component of CRF is that due to absorption and emission of longwave radiation in the anvil, which via gentle lifting directly encourages the more extensive convective activity that then leads to a radial expansion of the TC wind field. On a curved Earth, the magnitude of the outer winds helps determine the speed and direction of TC motion via the beta drift. CRF also influences TC motion by determining how convective asymmetries develop in the TC inner core. Further improvements in TC forecasting may require improved understanding and representation of cloud-radiative processes in operational models, and more comprehensive comparisons with observations are clearly needed.

Beschreibung: Advances in computer power, new forecasting challenges, and new diagnostic techniques have brought about changes in the way atmospheric development and vertical motion are diagnosed in an operational setting. Many of these changes, such as improved model skill, model resolution, and ensemble forecasting, have arguably been detrimental to the ability of forecasters to understand and respond to the evolving atmosphere. The use of nondivergent wind in place of geostrophic wind would be a step in the right direction, but the advantages of potential vorticity suggest that its widespread adoption as a diagnostic tool on the west side of the Atlantic is overdue. Ertel potential vorticity (PV), when scaled to be compatible with pseudopotential vorticity, is generally similar to pseudopotential vorticity, so forecasters accustomed to quasigeostrophic reasoning through the height tendency equation can transfer some of their intuition into the Ertel-PV framework. Indeed, many of the differences between pseudopotential vorticity and Ertel potential vorticity are consequences of the choice of definition of quasigeostrophic PV and are not fundamental to the quasigeostrophic system. Thus, at its core, PV thinking is consistent with commonly used quasigeostrophic diagnostic techniques.

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: The Asian monsoon is a planetary-scale circulation system powered by the release of latent heat, but important features of deep convection and rainfall distribution cannot be adequately represented by the large-scale patterns. This is mainly due to the strong influences of terrain that are important across a wide range of horizontal scales, especially over the Maritime Continent where the complex terrain has a dominant effect on the behavior of convective rainfall during the boreal winter monsoon. This chapter is a review and summary of published results on the effects on monsoon convection due to interactions between the Maritime Continent terrain and large-scale transient systems. The Maritime Continent topographic features strongly affect both the demarcation of the boreal summer and winter monsoon regimes and the asymmetric seasonal marches during the transition seasons. In the western part of the region, the complex interactions that lead to variability in deep convection are primarily controlled by the cold surges and the synoptic-scale Borneo vortex. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) reduces the frequency of weaker surges through an interference with their structure. It also influences convection, particularly on the diurnal cycle and when synoptic activities are weak. When both surges and the Borneo vortex are present, interactions between these circulations with the terrain can cause the strongest convection, which has included Typhoon Vamei (2001), which is the only observed tropical cyclone that developed within 1.5° of the equator. The cold surges are driven by midlatitude pressure rises associated with the movement of the Siberian high. Rapid strengthening of surge northeasterly winds can be explained as the tropical response via a geostrophic adjustment process to the pressure forcing in the form of an equatorial Rossby wave group. Dispersion of meridional modes leads to a northeast–southwest orientation that allows the surge to stream downstream through the similarly oriented South China Sea. This evolution leads to a cross-equatorial return flow and a cyclonic circulation at the equator, and thus a mechanism for equatorial cyclogenesis. Although the narrow width of the southern South China Sea facilitates strengthening of the cold surge, it also severely restricts the likelihood of cyclone development so that Vamei remains to be the only typhoon observed in the equatorial South China Sea. Climate variations from El Niño–Southern Oscillation to climate change may impact the interactions between the large-scale motion and Maritime Continent terrain because they lead to changes in the mean flow. The thermodynamic effects on the interaction between MJO and the monsoon surges and Borneo vortex over the complex terrain also need to be addressed. These and other questions such as any possible changes in the likelihood of equatorial tropical cyclogenesis as a result of climate change are all important areas for future research.

Beschreibung: It has been known that aerosol particles act as nuclei for ice formation for over a century and a half (see Dufour). Initial attempts to understand the nature of these ice nucleating particles were optical and electron microscope inspection of inclusions at the center of a crystal (see Isono; Kumai). Only within the last few decades has instrumentation to extract ice crystals from clouds and analyze the residual material after sublimation of condensed-phase water been available (see Cziczo and Froyd). Techniques to ascertain the ice nucleating potential of atmospheric aerosols have only been in place for a similar amount of time (see DeMott et al.). In this chapter the history of measurements of ice nucleating particles, both in the field and complementary studies in the laboratory, are reviewed. Remaining uncertainties and artifacts associated with measurements are described and suggestions for future areas of improvement are made.

Beschreibung: Synoptic and mesoscale meteorology underwent a revolution in the 1940s and 1950s with the widespread deployment of novel weather observations, such as the radiosonde network and the advent of weather radar. These observations provoked a rapid increase in our understanding of the structure and dynamics of the atmosphere by pioneering analysts such as Fred Sanders. The authors argue that we may be approaching an analogous revolution in our ability to study the structure and dynamics of atmospheric phenomena with the advent of probabilistic objective analyses. These probabilistic analyses provide not only best estimates of the state of the atmosphere (e.g., the expected value) and the uncertainty about this state (e.g., the variance), but also the relationships between all locations and all variables at that instant in time. Up until now, these relationships have been determined by sampling in time by, for example, case studies, composites, and time-series analysis. Here the authors propose a new approach, ensemble synoptic analysis, which exploits the information contained in probabilistic samples of analyses at one or more instants in time. One source of probabilistic analyses is ensemble-based state-estimation methods, such as ensemble-based Kalman filters. Analyses from such a filter may be used to study atmospheric phenomena and the relationships between fields and locations at one or more instants in time. After a brief overview of a research-based ensemble Kalman filter, illustrative examples of ensemble synoptic analysis are given for an extratropical cyclone, including relationships between the cyclone minimum sea level pressure and other synoptic features, statistically determined operators for potential-vorticity inversion, and ensemble-based sensitivity analysis.

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: Insights by Professor Michio Yanai on tropical waves, which have been vital ingredients for progress in tropical meteorology over the last half-century, are recollected. This study revisits various aspects of research on tropical waves over the last five decades to examine, in Yanai’s words, “the nature of ‘A-scale’ tropical wave disturbances and the interaction of the waves and the ‘B-scale’ phenomena (cloud clusters),” the fundamental problem posed by Yanai at the design phase of the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) in 1971. The various contributions of Michio Yanai to the current understanding of the dynamics of the tropical atmosphere are briefly reviewed to show how his work has led to several current theories in this field.

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: This chapter outlines the development of our understanding of several examples of mesoscale atmospheric circulations that are tied directly to surface forcings, starting from thermally driven variations over the ocean and progressing inland to man-made variations in temperature and roughness, and ending with forced boundary layer circulations. Examples include atmospheric responses to 1) overocean temperature variations, 2) coastlines (sea breezes), 3) mesoscale regions of inland water (lake-effect storms), and 4) variations in land-based surface usage (urban land cover). This chapter provides brief summaries of the historical evolution of, and tools for, understanding such mesoscale atmospheric circulations and their importance to the field, as well as physical processes responsible for initiating and determining their evolution. Some avenues of future research we see as critical are provided. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has played a direct and important role in fostering the development of understanding mesoscale surface-forced circulations. The significance of AMS journal publications and conferences on this and interrelated atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological fields, as well as those by sister scientific organizations, are demonstrated through extensive relevant citations.

Beschreibung: Although atmospheric observing systems were already an important part of meteorology before the American Meteorological Society was established in 1919, the past 100 years have seen a steady increase in their numbers and types. Examples of how observing systems were developed and how they have enabled major scientific discoveries are presented. These examples include observing systems associated with the boundary layer, the upper air, clouds and precipitation, and solar and terrestrial radiation. Widely used specialized observing systems such as radar, lidar, and research aircraft are discussed, and examples of applications to weather forecasting and climate are given. Examples drawn from specific types of chemical measurements, such as ozone and carbon dioxide, are included. Sources of information on observing systems, including other chapters of this monograph, are also discussed. The past 100 years has been characterized by synergism between societal needs for weather observations and the needs of fundamental meteorological research into atmospheric processes. In the latter half of the period, observing system improvements have been driven by the increasing demands for higher-resolution data for numerical models, the need for long-term measurements, and for more global coverage. This has resulted in a growing demand for data access and for integrating data from an increasingly wide variety of observing system types and networks. These trends will likely continue.

Beschreibung: The history of over 100 years of observing the ocean is reviewed. The evolution of particular classes of ocean measurements (e.g., shipboard hydrography, moorings, and drifting floats) are summarized along with some of the discoveries and dynamical understanding they made possible. By the 1970s, isolated and “expedition” observational approaches were evolving into experimental campaigns that covered large ocean areas and addressed multiscale phenomena using diverse instrumental suites and associated modeling and analysis teams. The Mid-Ocean Dynamics Experiment (MODE) addressed mesoscale “eddies” and their interaction with larger-scale currents using new ocean modeling and experiment design techniques and a suite of developing observational methods. Following MODE, new instrument networks were established to study processes that dominated ocean behavior in different regions. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program gathered multiyear time series in the tropical Pacific to understand, and eventually predict, evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) sought to quantify ocean transport throughout the global ocean using temperature, salinity, and other tracer measurements along with fewer direct velocity measurements with floats and moorings. Western and eastern boundary currents attracted comprehensive measurements, and various coastal regions, each with its unique scientific and societally important phenomena, became home to regional observing systems. Today, the trend toward networked observing arrays of many instrument types continues to be a productive way to understand and predict large-scale ocean phenomena.

Beschreibung: In situ observation networks and reanalyses products of the state of the atmosphere and upper ocean show well-defined, large-scale patterns of coupled climate variability on time scales ranging from seasons to several decades. We summarize these phenomena and their physics, which have been revealed by analysis of observations, by experimentation with uncoupled and coupled atmosphere and ocean models with a hierarchy of complexity, and by theoretical developments. We start with a discussion of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are clearly affected by coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. We then discuss the tropical phenomena that only exist because of the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean: the Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, and a phenomenon analogous to ENSO in the Atlantic. For ENSO, we further discuss the sources of irregularity and asymmetry between warm and cold phases of ENSO, and the response of ENSO to forcing. Fundamental to variability on all time scales in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are preferred patterns of uncoupled atmospheric variability that exist independent of any changes in the state of the ocean, land, or distribution of sea ice. These patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern; they are most active in wintertime, with a temporal spectrum that is nearly white. Stochastic variability in the NPO, PNA, and NAO force the ocean on days to interannual times scales by way of turbulent heat exchange and Ekman transport, and on decadal and longer time scales by way of wind stress forcing. The PNA is partially responsible for the Pacific decadal oscillation; the NAO is responsible for an analogous phenomenon in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In models, stochastic forcing by the NAO also gives rise to variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that is partially responsible for multidecadal anomalies in the North Atlantic climate known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO); observations do not yet exist to adequately determine the physics of the AMO. We review the progress that has been made in the past 50 years in understanding each of these phenomena and the implications for short-term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate forecasts. We end with a brief discussion of advances of things that are on the horizon, under the rug, and over the rainbow.

Beschreibung: s The history of severe thunderstorm research and forecasting over the past century has been a remarkable story involving interactions between technological development of observational and modeling capabilities, research into physical processes, and the forecasting of phenomena with the goal of reducing loss of life and property. Perhaps more so than any other field of meteorology, the relationship between researchers and forecasters has been particularly close in the severe thunderstorm domain, with both groups depending on improved observational capabilities. The advances that have been made have depended on observing systems that did not exist 100 years ago, particularly radar and upper-air systems. They have allowed scientists to observe storm behavior and structure and the environmental setting in which storms occur. This has led to improved understanding of processes, which in turn has allowed forecasters to use those same observational systems to improve forecasts. Because of the relatively rare and small-scale nature of many severe thunderstorm events, severe thunderstorm researchers have developed mobile instrumentation capabilities that have allowed them to collect high-quality observations in the vicinity of storms. Since much of the world is subject to severe thunderstorm hazards, research has taken place around the world, with the local emphasis dependent on what threats are perceived in that area, subject to the availability of resources to study the threat. Frequently, the topics of interest depend upon a single event, or a small number of events, of a particular kind that aroused public or economic interests in that area. International cooperation has been an important contributor to collecting and disseminating knowledge. As the AMS turns 100, the range of research relating to severe thunderstorms is expanding. The time scale of forecasting or projecting is increasing, with work going on to study forecasts on the seasonal to subseasonal time scales, as well as addressing how climate change may influence severe thunderstorms. With its roots in studying weather that impacts the public, severe thunderstorm research now includes significant work from the social science community, some as standalone research and some in active collaborative efforts with physical scientists. In addition, the traditional emphases of the field continue to grow. Improved radar and numerical modeling capabilities allow meteorologists to see and model details that were unobservable and not understood a half century ago. The long tradition of collecting observations in the field has led to improved quality and quantity of observations, as well as the capability to collect them in locations that were previously inaccessible. Much of that work has been driven by the gaps in understanding identified by theoretical and operational practice.

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Beschreibung: Remarkable progress has occurred over the last 100 years in our understanding of atmospheric chemical composition, stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, urban air pollution, acid rain, and the formation of airborne particles from gas-phase chemistry. Much of this progress was associated with the developing understanding of the formation and role of ozone and of the oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO2, in the stratosphere and troposphere. The chemistry of the stratosphere, emerging from the pioneering work of Chapman in 1931, was followed by the discovery of catalytic ozone cycles, ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons, and the polar ozone holes, work honored by the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded to Crutzen, Rowland, and Molina. Foundations for the modern understanding of tropospheric chemistry were laid in the 1950s and 1960s, stimulated by the eye-stinging smog in Los Angeles. The importance of the hydroxyl (OH) radical and its relationship to the oxides of nitrogen (NO and NO2) emerged. The chemical processes leading to acid rain were elucidated. The atmosphere contains an immense number of gas-phase organic compounds, a result of emissions from plants and animals, natural and anthropogenic combustion processes, emissions from oceans, and from the atmospheric oxidation of organics emitted into the atmosphere. Organic atmospheric particulate matter arises largely as gas-phase organic compounds undergo oxidation to yield low-volatility products that condense into the particle phase. A hundred years ago, quantitative theories of chemical reaction rates were nonexistent. Today, comprehensive computer codes are available for performing detailed calculations of chemical reaction rates and mechanisms for atmospheric reactions. Understanding the future role of atmospheric chemistry in climate change and, in turn, the impact of climate change on atmospheric chemistry, will be critical to developing effective policies to protect the planet.

Beschreibung: The polar regions present several unique challenges to meteorology, including remoteness and a harsh environment. We summarize the evolution of polar meteorology in both hemispheres, beginning with measurements made during early expeditions and concluding with the recent decades in which polar meteorology has been central to global challenges such as the ozone hole, weather prediction, and climate change. Whereas the 1800s and early 1900s provided data from expeditions and only a few subarctic stations, the past 100 years have seen great advances in the observational network and corresponding understanding of the meteorology of the polar regions. For example, a persistent view in the early twentieth century was of an Arctic Ocean dominated by a permanent high pressure cell, a glacial anticyclone. With increased observations, by the 1950s it became apparent that, while anticyclones are a common feature of the Arctic circulation, cyclones are frequent and may be found anywhere in the Arctic. Technology has benefited polar meteorology through advances in instrumentation, especially autonomously operated instruments. Moreover, satellite remote sensing and computer models revolutionized polar meteorology. We highlight the four International Polar Years and several high-latitude field programs of recent decades. We also note outstanding challenges, which include understanding of the role of the Arctic in variations of midlatitude weather and climate, the ability to model surface energy exchanges over a changing Arctic Ocean, assessments of ongoing and future trends in extreme events in polar regions, and the role of internal variability in multiyear-to-decadal variations of polar climate.

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Beschreibung: The human population on Earth has increased by a factor of 4.6 in the last 100 years and has become more centered in urban environments. This expansion and migration pattern has resulted in stresses on the environment. Meteorological applications have helped to understand and mitigate those stresses. This chapter describes several applications that enable the population to interact with the environment in more sustainable ways. The first topic treated is urbanization itself and the types of stresses exerted by population growth and its attendant growth in urban landscapes—buildings and pavement—and how they modify airflow and create a local climate. We describe environmental impacts of these changes and implications for the future. The growing population uses increasing amounts of energy. Traditional sources of energy have taxed the environment, but the increase in renewable energy has used the atmosphere and hydrosphere as its fuel. Utilizing these variable renewable resources requires meteorological information to operate electric systems efficiently and economically while providing reliable power and minimizing environmental impacts. The growing human population also pollutes the environment. Thus, understanding and modeling the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants are important steps toward regulating the pollution and mitigating impacts. This chapter describes how weather information can help to make surface transportation more safe and efficient. It is explained how these applications naturally require transdisciplinary collaboration to address these challenges caused by the expanding population.

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Beschreibung: The pioneering large-scale studies of cyclone frequency, location, and intensity conducted by Fred Sanders prompt similar questions about lesser-studied anticyclone development. The results of a climatology of closed anticyclones (CAs) at 200, 500, and 850 hPa, with an emphasis on the subtropics and midlatitudes, is presented to assess the seasonally varying distribution and hemispheric differences of these features. To construct the CA climatology, a counting program was applied to twice-daily 2.5° NCEP–NCAR reanalysis 200-, 500-, and 850-hPa geopotential height fields for the period 1950–2003. Stationary CAs, defined as those CAs that were located at a particular location for consecutive time periods, were counted only once. The climatology results show that 200-hPa CAs occur preferentially during summer over subtropical continental regions, while 500-hPa CAs occur preferentially over subtropical oceans in all seasons and over subtropical continents in summer. Conversely, 850-hPa CAs occur preferentially over oceanic regions beneath upper-level midocean troughs, and are most prominent in the Northern Hemisphere, and over midlatitude continents in winter. Three case studies of objectively identified CAs that produced heal waves over the United States, Europe, and Australia in 1995, 2003, and 2004, respectively, are presented to supplement the climatological results. The case studies, examining the subset of CAs than can produce heat waves, illustrate how climatologically hot continental tropical air masses produced over arid and semiarid regions of the subtropics and lower midlatitudes can become abnormally hot in conjunction with dynamically driven upper-level ridge amplification. Subsequently, these abnormally hot air masses are advected downstream away from their source regions in conjunction with transient disturbances embedded in anomalously strong westerly jets.

Beschreibung: Oklahoma Mesonetwork data are used to illustrate important atmospheric features that are not well shown by the usual synoptic data. For example, some shifts of wind from south to north that are shown as cold fronts on synoptic charts are not cold fronts by any plausible definition. As previously discussed by Fred Sanders and others, such errors in analysis can be reduced by knowledge of the wide variety of weather phenomena that actually exists, and by more attention to temperatures at the earth's surface as revealed by conventional synoptic data. Mesoscale data for four cases reinforce previous discussions of the ephemeral nature of fronts and deficiencies in the usual analyses of cold fronts. One type of misanalyzed case involves post-cold-frontal boundary layer air that is warmer than the prefrontal air. A second type is usually nocturnal, with a rise of local temperature during disruption of an inversion and a wind shift with later cooling that accompanies advection of a climatological gradient of temperature.

Beschreibung: The advent of the polar front theory of cyclones in Norway early in the last century held that the development of fronts and air masses is central to understanding midlatitude weather phenomena. While work on fronts continues to this day, the concept of air masses has been largely forgotten, superseded by the idea of a continuum. The Norwegians placed equal emphasis on the thermodynamics of airmass formation and on the dynamical processes that moved air masses around; today, almost all the emphasis is on dynamics, with little published literature on diabatic processes acting on a large scale. In this essay, the author argues that a lack of understanding of large-scale diabatic processes leads to an incomplete picture of the atmosphere and contributes to systematic errors in medium- and long-range weather forecasts. At the same time, modern concepts centered around potential vorticity conservation and inversion lead one to a redefinition of the term "air mass" that may have some utility in conceptualizing atmospheric physics and in weather forecasting.

Beschreibung: It is well known that the envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) consists of smaller-scale convective systems, including mesoscale convective systems (MCS), tropical cyclones, and synoptic-scale waves called “convectively coupled equatorial waves” (CCW). In fact, recent results suggest that the fundamental mechanisms of the MJO involve interactions between the synoptic-scale CCW and their larger-scale environment (Majda and Stechmann). In light of this, this chapter reviews recent and past work on two-way interactions between convective systems—both MCSs and CCW—and their larger-scale environment, with a particular focus given to recent work on MJO–CCW interactions.

Beschreibung: Historically, the atmospheric sciences have tended to treat problems of weather and climate separately. The real physical system, however, is a continuum, with short-term (minutes to days) “weather” fluctuations influencing climate variations and change, and, conversely, more slowly varying aspects of the system (typical time scales of a season or longer) affecting the weather that is experienced. While this past approach has served important purposes, it is becoming increasingly apparent that in order to make progress in addressing many socially important problems, an improved understanding of the connections between weather and climate is required. This overview summarizes the progress over the last few decades in the understanding of the phenomena and mechanisms linking weather and climate variations. The principal emphasis is on developments in understanding key phenomena and processes that bridge the time scales between synoptic-scale weather variability (periods of approximately 1 week) and climate variations of a season or longer. Advances in the ability to identify synoptic features, improve physical understanding, and develop forecast skill within this time range are reviewed, focusing on a subset of major, recurrent phenomena that impact extratropical wintertime weather and climate variations over the Pacific–North American region. While progress has been impressive, research has also illuminated areas where future gains are possible. This article concludes with suggestions on near-term directions for advancing the understanding and capabilities to predict the connections between weather and climate variations.

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Beschreibung: Fred Sanders' career extended over 55 yr, touching upon many of the revolutionary transformations in the field of meteorology during that period. In this paper, his contributions to the transformation of synoptic meteorology, his research into the nature of explosive cyclogenesis, and related advances in the ability to predict these storms are reviewed. In addition to this review, the current status of forecasting oceanic cyclones 4.5 days in advance is presented, illustrating the progress that has been made and the challenges that persist, especially for forecasting those extreme extratropical cyclones that are marked by surface wind speeds exceeding hurricane force. Last, Fred Sanders' participation in a forecast for the historic 1947 snowstorm (that produced snowfall amounts in the New York City area that set records at that time) is reviewed along with an attempt to use today's operational global model to simulate this storm using data that were available at the time. The study reveals the predictive limitations involved with this case based on the scarcity of upper-air data in 1947, while confirming Fred Sanders' forecasting skills when dealing with these types of major storm events, even as a young aviation forecaster at New York's LaGuardia Airport.

Beschreibung: A case study of a double dryline on 22 May 2002 is presented. Mobile, 3-mm-wavelength Doppler radars from the University of Massachusetts and the University of Wyoming (Wyoming cloud radar) were used to collect very fine resolution vertical-velocity data in the vicinity of each of the moisture gradients associated with the drylines. Very narrow (50–100 m wide) channels of strong upward vertical velocity (up to 8 m s–1) were measured in the convergence zone of the easternmost dryline, larger in magnitude than reported with previous drylines. Distinct areas of descending motion were evident to the east and west of both drylines. Radar data are interpreted in the context of other observational platforms available during the International H2O Project (IHOP-2002). a variational ground-based mobile radar data processing technique was developed and applied to pseudo-dual-Doppler data collected during a rolling range-height indicator deployment. It was found that there was a secondary (vertical) circulation normal to the easternmost moisture gradient; the circulation comprised an easterly component near-surface flow to the east, a strong upward vertical component in the convergence zone, a westerly return, flow above the convective boundary layer, and numerous regions of descending motion, the most prominent approximately 3–5 km to the east of the surface convergence zone.

Beschreibung: Fred Sanders' teaching and research contributions in the area of quasigeostrophic theory are highlighted in this paper. The application of these contributions is made to the topic of extreme cold-season precipitation events in the Saint Lawrence valley in the northeastern United States and southern Quebec. This research focuses on analyses of Saint Lawrence valley heavy precipitation events. Synoptic- and planetary-scale circulation anomaly precursors are typically identified several days prior to these events. These precursors include transient upper-level troughs, strong moisture transports into the region, and anomalously large precipitable water amounts. The physical insight of Fred Sanders' work is used in the analysis of these composite results. Further details of this insight are provided in analyses of one case of heavy precipitation.

Beschreibung: Sanders designed a barotropic tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction model for the North Atlantic TC basin that became known as the Sanders barotropic (SANBAR) model. It predicted the streamfunction of the deeplayer mean winds (tropical circulation vertically averaged from 1000 to 100 hPa) that represents the vertically averaged tropical circulations. Originally, the wind input for the operational objective analysis (OA) consisted of winds measured by radiosondes and 44 bogus winds provided by analysis at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which corresponded to the vertically averaged flow over sparsely observed tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude oceanic regions. The model covered a fixed regional area and had a grid size of ~ 154 km. It estimated the initial storm motion solely on the basis of the large-scale flow from the OA, not taking into account the observed storm motion. During 1970, the SANBAR model became the first dynamical TC track model to be run operationally at NHC. Track forecasts of SANBAR were verified from the 1971 TC season when track model verifications began at NHC until its retirement after the 1989 Atlantic TC season. The average annual SANBAR forecast track errors were verified relative to Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER), the standard no-skill track forecast. Comparison with CLIPER determines the skill of track forecast methods. Verifications are presented for two different versions of the SANBAR model system used operationally during 1973–84 and 1985–89. In homogeneous comparisons (i.e., includes only forecasts for the same initial times) for the former period, SANBAR's track forecasts were slightly better than CLIPER at 24–48-h forecast intervals; however, from 1985 to 1989 the average SANBAR track forecast errors from 24–72 h were ~10% more skillful than homogeneous CLIPER track forecasts.

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Beschreibung: In the last decade, Fred Sanders was often critical of current surface analysis techniques. This led to his promoting the use of surface potential temperatures to distinguish between fronts, baroclinic troughs, and non-frontal baroclinic zones, and to the development of a climatology of surface baroclinic zones. In this paper, criticisms of current surface analysis techniques and the usefulness of surface potential temperature analyses are discussed. Case examples are used to compare potential temperature analyses and current National Centers for Environmental Prediction analyses. The 1-yr climatology of Sanders and Hoffman is reconstructed using a composite technique. Annual and seasonal mean potential temperature analyses over the continental United States, southern Canada, northern Mexico, and adjacent coastal waters are presented. In addition, gridpoint frequencies of moderate and strong potential temperature gradients are calculated. The results of the mean potential temperature analyses show that moderate and strong surface baroclinic zones are favored along the coastlines and the slopes of the North American cordillera. Additional subsynoptic details, not found in Sanders and Hoffman, are identified. The availability of the composite results allows for the calculation of potential temperature gradient anomalies. It is shown that these anomalies can be used to identify significant frontal baroclinic zones that are associated with weak potential temperature gradients. Together the results and reviews in this paper show that surface potential temperature analyses are a valuable forecasting and analysis tool allowing analysts to distinguish and identify fronts, baroclinic troughs, and nonfrontal baroclinic zones.

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Beschreibung: The nature of the different types of surface boundaries that appear in the southern plains of the United States during the convectively active season is reviewed. The following boundaries are discussed: fronts, the dryline, troughs, and outflow boundaries, The boundaries are related to their environment and to local topography. The role these boundaries might play in the initiation of convective storms is emphasized. The various types of boundary-related vertical circulations and their dynamics are discussed. In particular, quasigeostrophic and semigeostrophic dynamics, and the dynamics of solenoidal circulations, density currents, boundary layers, and gravity waves are considered. Miscellaneous topics pertinent to convective storms and their relationship to surface boundaries such as along-the-boundary variability, boundary collisions, and the role of vertical shear are also discussed. Although some cases of storm initiation along surface boundaries have been well documented using research datasets collected during comprehensive field experiments, much of what we know is based only on empirical forecasting and nowcasting experience. It is suggested that many problems relating to convective-storm formation need to be explored in detail using real datasets with new observing systems and techniques, in conjunction with numerical simulation studies, and through climatological studies.

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