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  • Oxford University Press  (15,707)
  • American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • Annual Reviews
  • 2020-2022  (20,503)
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  • 1
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    Retrospective short-term forecasting experiment in Italy based on the occurrence of strong (fore) shocks (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-15
    Description: In a recent work we computed the relative frequencies with which strong shocks (4.0≤Mw〈5.0), widely felt by the population were followed in the same area by potentially destructive main shocks (Mw≥5.0) in Italy. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies can be tentatively used to estimate the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. This allows us to set up an alarm-based forecasting hypothesis related to strong foreshocks occurrence. Such hypothesis is tested retrospectively on the data of a homogenized seismic catalogue of the Italian area against a purely random hypothesis that simply forecasts the target main shocks proportionally to the space-time fraction occupied by the alarms. We compute the latter fraction in two ways a) as the ratio between the average time covered by the alarms in each area and the total duration of the forecasting experiment (60 years) and b) as the same ratio but weighted by the past frequency of occurrence of earthquakes in each area. In both cases the overall retrospective performance of our forecasting algorithm is definitely better than the random case. Considering an alarm duration of three months, the algorithm retrospectively forecasts more than 70% of all shocks with Mw5.5 occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2019 with a total space-time fraction covered by the alarms of the order of 2%. Considering the same space-time coverage, the algorithm is also able to retrospectively forecasts more than 40% of the first main shocks with Mw5.5 of the seismic sequences occurred in the same time interval. Given the good reliability of our results, the forecasting algorithm is set and ready to be tested also prospectively, in parallel to other ongoing procedures operating on the Italian territory.
    Description: This paper benefitted from funding provided by the European Union within the ambit of the H2020 project RISE (No. 821115), which in particular fully financed the PhD grant of one of the authors (E.B.).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1192–1206
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake interaction ; Statistical seismology ; forecasting, ; prediction ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
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    Thermal structure of a vanishing subduction system. An example of seismically-derived crustal temperature along the Italian peninsula (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
    Description: The active tectonic processes in convergent margins confer a high degree of complexity to the crust. Determining the thermal structure is, therefore, key to better elucidate the nature of those processes. In order to reconstruct the thermal structure of the crust beneath the Italian peninsula, we combine the most recent and accurate shear-wave velocity model that is currently available with thermodynamic modelling, assuming a global average crustal composition with no lateral variations. Our model, presented in terms of Moho temperature and crustal thermal gradients, shows a very good agreement with the known thermal anomalies associated with the backarc spreading related to the Apennine subduction. Importantly, we envisage a new anomalous region of high Moho temperatures in NW Italy (T 〉 800 degrees C at 30 km), at the transition between the Alps and Apennine orogens. The lowest temperatures of our model, corresponding to geothermal gradients 〈 19 degrees C km(-1), are obtained in the still active but slow-convergent portion of the northern Apennine. Moho temperatures increase moving southwards along the Apennine chain, an observation that is coherent with the evidence of ceasing subduction and consequent rebalancing of the depressed isotherms along the slab. Our results suggest that a thermal structure in different tectonic settings can be inferred with acceptable uncertainties based on absolute seismic velocity models. In this sense, our approach can be extended to any other region.
    Description: Published
    Description: 239–247
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
    Description: ectonic earthquake swarms challenge our understanding of earthquake processes since it is difficult to link observations to the underlying physical mechanisms and to assess the hazard they pose. Transient forcing is thought to initiate and drive the spatio-temporal release of energy during swarms. The nature of the transient forcing may vary across sequences and range from aseismic creeping or transient slip to diffusion of pore pressure pulses to fluid redistribution and migration within the seismogenic crust. Distinguishing between such forcing mechanisms may be critical to reduce epistemic uncertainties in the assessment of hazard due to seismic swarms, because it can provide information on the frequency–magnitude distribution of the earthquakes (often deviating from the assumed Gutenberg–Richter relation) and on the expected source parameters influencing the ground motion (for example the stress drop). Here we study the ongoing Pollino range (Southern Italy) seismic swarm, a long-lasting seismic sequence with more than five thousand events recorded and located since October 2010. The two largest shocks (magnitude M w = 4.2 and M w = 5.1) are among the largest earthquakes ever recorded in an area which represents a seismic gap in the Italian historical earthquake catalogue. We investigate the geometrical, mechanical and statistical characteristics of the largest earthquakes and of the entire swarm. We calculate the focal mechanisms of the M l 〉 3 events in the sequence and the transfer of Coulomb stress on nearby known faults and analyse the statistics of the earthquake catalogue. We find that only 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the sequence can be explained as aftershocks, and the remaining 75 per cent may be attributed to a transient forcing. The b-values change in time throughout the sequence, with low b-values correlated with the period of highest rate of activity and with the occurrence of the largest shock. In the light of recent studies on the palaeoseismic and historical activity in the Pollino area, we identify two scenarios consistent with the observations and our analysis: This and past seismic swarms may have been ‘passive’ features, with small fault patches failing on largely locked faults, or may have been accompanied by an ‘active’, largely aseismic, release of a large portion of the accumulated tectonic strain. Those scenarios have very different implications for the seismic hazard of the area.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1553–1567
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Non-stability of the noise HVSR at sites near or on topographic heights (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-18
    Description: The horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) of seismic noise is often used to investigate site effects, and it is usually assumed to be a stable feature of the site considered. Here we show that such an assumption is not always justified, and may lead to incorrect conclusions. The HVSR analysis was performed on ambient seismic noise recordings lasting from weeks to months at many sites in Calabria, Italy. Results show a variety of site effects, from the resonance of a shallow sedimentary layer to the polarized amplification of horizontal ground motion associated with topographic effects. We describe the results of seven sites whose HVSR is characterized by dual content: one that is persistent, and another appearing only occasionally. Two sites very near the coast of the Tyrrhenian sea and five sites in the Calabrian Arc mountains show the most remarkable results. The shape of the HVSR changes significantly at these sites when the amplitude of background noise increases in a broad frequency band during periods of bad weather. The occasional contribution to the HVSR consists of one or more peaks, depending on the site, that appear only when the amplitude of ambient noise is higher than usual. The seven sites where we observe the HVSR variability are all located in complex geological environments, on mountains, ridges or foothills. A variation of the HVSR correlated with the day–night cycle is also observed at some of these sites.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2162–2171
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    The Shallow Plumbing System of Piton de la Fournaise Volcano (La Reunion Island, Indian Ocean) Revealed by the Major 2007 Caldera-Forming Eruption (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-10
    Description: The 2007 caldera-forming eruption of Piton de la Fournaise (PdF) erupted the largest volume of magma (210 Mm3)recorded at this volcano in at least three centuries. Major and trace element and Sr^Nd isotope data for bulk-rocks, groundmasses and olivine phenocrysts have been combined with melt inclusion data (major, trace and volatile elements) to track magma evolution over the whole eruptive sequence. We show that each eruptive phase had a distinctive geochemical and petrological signature and that caldera collapse on 5 April was preceded by a marked shift in bulk magma composition and crystal content and size. Aphyric basalt erupted at the beginning of the sequence (February 2007) had relatively high Sr isotope ratio (87Sr/86Sr ¼ 0·70420^0·704180) and low Nd isotopic ratio(143Nd/144Nd ¼ 0·51285^0·51286). Olivine-basalts extruded on2^5 April just before caldera collapse are less enriched in radiogenic Sr (87Sr/86Sr ¼ 0·70412^0·70416), but characterized by the same Nd isotopic composition. This magma is interpreted as a new deep input, which pressurized the shallow PdF plumbing system and triggered the 2007 activity. Post-collapse oceanite lavas represent the main volume of magma extruded in 2007. Their bulk-rocks and groundmasses have 87Sr/86Sr (0·70418) intermediate between those of February and 5 April, and similar to those of the March 2007 and 2001^2006 lavas.We show that the Steady State Basalts (SSB) commonly erupted at PdF are hybrid melts, which result from multistep mixing between ‘alkaline’and ‘transitional’end-members. Our results lead us to propose a new model of the PdF plumbing system to reconcile the petrological, geochemical and geophysical observations: (1) the shallow portion (above sea level) of the PdF plumbing system hosts several small sills, in which magma experiences variable degrees of degassing, cooling and crystallization; (2) oceanite lavas result from the withdrawal of shallow harrisitic mushes stored at low pressures (548 MPa; 51800^2400 m depth) below both the volcano summit and its eastern flank; (3) water degassing plays a major role in fast magma crystallization at shallow depths. Multistep ascent and periodic extrusion of the shallow magmas is promoted by injections of deeper and hotter basaltic magma, containing up to 1·3 wt % H2O and 1630 ppm S. In 2007, the new deep input was the ultimate source of the large excess in sulfur degassing detected by satellites. Lateral draining and intrusion of magma below the eastern flank of the volcano are the cause of major volcano deformation, flank sliding and summit caldera collapse.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1287-1315
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: 6A. Geochimica per l'ambiente e geologia medica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Piton de la Fournaise ; plumbing system ; magma reservoir ; caldera collapse ; melt inclusions ; volatile budget ; isotope geochemistry ; basalt
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Numerical analysis of interseismic, coseismic and postseismic phases for normal and reverse faulting earthquakes in Italy (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-23
    Description: The preparation, initiation, and occurrence dynamics of earthquakes in Italy are governed by several frequently unknown physical mechanisms and parameters. Understanding these mechanisms is crucial for developing new techniques and approaches for earthquake monitoring and hazard assessments. Here, we develop a first-order numerical model simulating quasi-static crustal interseismic loading, coseismic brittle episodic dislocations, and postseismic relaxation for extensional and compressional earthquakes in Italy based on a common framework of lithostatic and tectonic forces. Our model includes an upper crust, where the fault is locked, and a deep crust, where the fault experiences steady shear.
    Description: Published
    Description: 627–645
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    An automatically generated high-resolution earthquake catalogue for the 2016–2017 Central Italy seismic sequence, including P and S phase arrival times (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: The 2016–17 central Italy earthquake sequence began with the first mainshock near the town of Amatrice on August 24 (MW 6.0), and was followed by two subsequent large events near Visso on October 26 (MW 5.9) and Norcia on October 30 (MW 6.5), plus a cluster of 4 events with MW 〉 5.0 within few hours on January 18, 2017. The affected area had been monitored before the sequence started by the permanent Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC), and was enhanced during the sequence by temporary stations deployed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and the British Geological Survey. By the middle of September, there was a dense network of 155 stations, with a mean separation in the epicentral area of 6–10 km, comparable to the most likely earthquake depth range in the region. This network configuration was kept stable for an entire year, producing 2.5 TB of continuous waveform recordings. Here we describe how this data was used to develop a large and comprehensive earthquake catalogue using the Complete Automatic Seismic Processor (CASP) procedure. This procedure detected more than 450,000 events in the year following the first mainshock, and determined their phase arrival times through an advanced picker engine (RSNI-Picker2), producing a set of about 7 million P- and 10 million S-wave arrival times. These were then used to locate the events using a non-linear location (NLL) algorithm, a 1D velocity model calibrated for the area, and station corrections and then to compute their local magnitudes (ML). The procedure was validated by comparison of the derived data for phase picks and earthquake parameters with a handpicked reference catalogue (hereinafter referred to as ‘RefCat’). The automated procedure takes less than 12 hours on an Intel Core-i7 workstation to analyse the primary waveform data and to detect and locate 3000 events on the most seismically active day of the sequence. This proves the concept that the CASP algorithm can provide effectively real-time data for input into daily operational earthquake forecasts, The results show that there have been significant improvements compared to RefCat obtained in the same period using manual phase picks. The number of detected and located events is higher (from 84,401 to 450,000), the magnitude of completeness is lower (from ML 1.4 to 0.6), and also the number of phase picks is greater with an average number of 72 picked arrival for a ML = 1.4 compared with 30 phases for RefCat using manual phase picking. These propagate into formal uncertainties of ± 0.9km in epicentral location and ± 1.5km in depth for the enhanced catalogue for the vast majority of the events. Together, these provide a significant improvement in the resolution of fine structures such as local planar structures and clusters, in particular the identification of shallow events occurring in parts of the crust previously thought to be inactive. The lower completeness magnitude provides a rich data set for development and testing of analysis techniques of seismic sequences evolution, including real-time, operational monitoring of b-value, time-dependent hazard evaluation and aftershock forecasting.
    Description: Published
    Description: 555–571
    Description: 3T. Fisica dei terremoti e Sorgente Sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
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  • 8
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    Erratum: On seismic ambient noise cross-correlation and surface-wave attenuation (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: erratum paper
    Description: Published
    Description: 1090-1092
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Theoretical seismology ; Seismic attenuation ; Seismic noise ; Surface waves ; Free oscillations ; Seismic interferometry ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.01. Earth Interior
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Crustal structure of the Azores Archipelago from Rayleigh wave ellipticity data (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication inGeophysical Journal International ©The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.
    Description: Determining the crustal structure of ocean island volcanoes is important to understand the formation and tectonic evolution of the oceanic lithosphere and tectonic swells in marine settings, and to assess seismic hazard in the islands. The Azores Archipelago is located near a triple junction system and is possibly under the influence of a mantle plume, being at the locus of a wide range of geodynamic processes. However, its crustal structure is still poorly constrained and debated due to the limited seismic coverage of the region and the peculiar linear geometry of the islands. To address these limitations, in this study we invert teleseismic Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements for 1-D shear wave speed (VS) crustal models of the Azores Archipelago. Moreover, we test the reliability of these new models by using them in independent moment tensor inversions of local seismic data and demonstrate that our models improve the waveform fit compared to previous models. We find that data from the westernmost seismic stations used in this study require a shallower Moho depth (∼10 km) than data from stations in the eastern part of the archipelago (∼13–16 km). This apparent increase in the Moho depth with increasing distance from the mid-Atlantic ridge (MAR) is expected. However, the rate at which Moho deepens away from the MAR is greater than that predicted from a half-space cooling model, suggesting that local tectonic perturbations have modified crustal structure. The 1-D VS models obtained beneath the westernmost seismic stations also show higher wave speeds than for the easternmost stations, which correlates well with the ages of the islands except Santa Maria Island. We interpret the relatively low VS profile found beneath Santa Maria Island as resulting from underplating, which agrees with previous geological studies of the island. Compared to a recent receiver function study of the region, the shallow structure (top ∼2 km) in our models shows lower shear wave speed, which may have important implications for future hazard studies of the region. More generally, the new seismic crustal models we present in this study will be useful to better understand the tectonics, seismicity, moment tensors and strong ground motions in the region.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1232–1247
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Changing modes and rates of mafic magma supply at Pantelleria (Sicily Channel, Southern Italy): new perspectives on the volcano factory drawn upon olivine records (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: The island of Pantelleria, located in the Sicily Channel Rift Zone (Italy), has been the site of violent peralkaline silicic magmatism alternating with minor effusive to low-intensity Strombolian erup- tions of basaltic composition. The basaltic rock suites exposed on the island were sampled to in- vestigate the plumbing system dynamics through the study of chemical stratigraphy and temporal records of olivine crystals. Our petrographic and geochemical observations, together with the com- positional variability of olivine, suggest different evolutionary histories for basaltic magmas erupted over two major periods divided by the 􏰃45 ka Green Tuff (GT) eruption. Core-to-rim com- positional traverses across olivine crystals document different types of zoning. We recognized oliv- ine zones affected by Fo oscillations at very fine scales in the inner cores, rims and/or in intermedi- ate portions of crystals and used them to reconstruct the residence and passage of crystals through different magmatic environments, with P–T–ƒO2 and compositional characteristics con- strained by thermodynamic modeling. The sequence of magmatic environments evidenced by oliv- ine zoning indicate that the pre-GT volcanic period was dominated by injection at shallow crustal levels (􏰃300–200 MPa) of primitive melts, initially moving from a deep storage zone at the crust- mantle boundary. Supply of this magma significantly decreased after the GT eruption, while the dy- namics of magma transfer within the upper portion of the plumbing system were greatly enhanced. The diffusive relaxation of olivine zoning provided the timing of storage and migration of a crystal through different environments. For magmas feeding the ancient (〉45 ka) basaltic activ- ity we retrieved transfer histories that are much longer (up to 􏰃3 years) if compared with those cal- culated for the post-GT basalts (1–9 months). The compositional and temporal dataset presented in this study supports the idea that the GT eruption and the subsequent collapse of the volcanic edi- fice could have caused major changes to the internal structural setting of Pantelleria, creating more favorable conditions for the migration of magmas in the upper portions of the plumbing system.
    Description: Published
    Description: egaa05
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 11
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    The Deep Plumbing System of Ischia: a Physico-chemical Window on the Fluid-saturated and CO2-sustained Neapolitan Volcanism (Southern Italy) (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Ischia, a volcanic island located 18 miles SW of Naples (Southern Italy), is a densely populated active caldera that last erupted in AD 1302. Melt inclusions in phenocrysts of the Vateliero and Cava Nocelle shoshonite^latite eruptive products (6th to 4th centuries BC) constrain the structure and nature of the Ischia deep magmatic feeding system.Their geochemical characteristics make Ischia a natural borehole for probing the physico-chemical conditions of magma generation in mantle contaminated by slab-derived fluids or melts, largely dominated by CO2.Volatile concentrations in olivine-hosted melt inclusions require gas^melt equilibria at between 3 and 18 km depth. In agreement with what has already been demonstrated at the other neighboring Neapolitan volcanoes (Procida, Campi Flegrei caldera and Somma^Vesuvius volcanic complex), a major crystallization depth at 8^10 km has been identified.The analyzed melt inclusions provide clear evidence for CO2-dominated gas fluxing and consequent dehydration of magma batches stagnating at crustal discontinuities. Gas fluxing is further supported by selective enrichment in K owing to fluid-transfer during magma differentiation.This takes place under oxidized conditions (Fe3þ /Fe 0·3) that can be fixed by an equimolar proportion of divalent and trivalent iron in the melt if post-entrapment crystallization of the host olivine is discarded.The melt inclusion data, together with data from the literature for other Neapolitan volcanoes, show that magmatism and volcanism in the Neapolitan area, despite differences in composition and eruption dynamics, are closely linked to supercritical CO2-rich fluids. These fluids are produced by devolatilization of subducting terrigenous^pelagic metasediments and infiltrate the overlying mantle wedge, generate magmas and control their ascent up to eruption. Geochemical characteristics of Ischia and the other Neapolitan volcanoes reveal that the extent of fluid or melt contamination of the pre-subduction asthenospheric mantle wedge was similar among these volcanoes. However, differences in the isotopic compositions of the erupted magmas (more enriched in radiogenic Sr at Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma^Vesuvius with respect to Procida) and the amount of H2O in the plumbing system of these volcanoes (almost double at Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma^Vesuvius than at Procida) reflect the different flow-rates of deep slab-derived fluids or melts through the mantle wedge, which, in turn, control the amount of generated magma.The high bulk permeability of the lithosphere below Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma^Vesuvius, determined by the occurrence of intersecting NW^SE and NE^SW regional fault systems, favours fluid ascent and accumulation at crustal levels, with consequent larger magma production and storage than at Procida, located along the NE^SW system.
    Description: Published
    Description: 951-984
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: 6A. Geochimica per l'ambiente e geologia medica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: CO2-fluxing ; melt inclusions ; redox state ; trachybasalts
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
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    Sulphur behaviour and redox conditions in etnean magmas during magma differentiation and degassing (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: Sulphur behaviour and variations in redox conditions during magma differentiation and degassing in the Mt Etna (Italy) volcanic system have been explored by integrating the study of olivine-hosted melt inclusions (MIs) with an experimental survey of sulphur solubility in hydrous basaltic magmas. Sulphur solubility experiments were performed at conditions relevant to the Etnean plumbing system (1200 C, 200MPa and oxygen fugacity between NNOþ0 2 and NNOþ1 7, with NNO being the nickel–nickel oxide buffer), and their results confirm the important control of oxygen fugacity (fO2) on S abundance in mafic magmas and on S partitioning between fluid and melt phases (DSfluid/melt). The observed DSfluid/melt value increases from 5164 to 14666 when fO2 decreases from NNOþ1 760 5 to NNOþ0 3. Based on the calculated DSfluid/melt and a careful selection of previously published data, an empirical model is proposed for basaltic magmas to predict the variation of DSfluid/melt values with variations in P (25–300 MPa), T (1030–1200 C) and fO2 (between NNO– 0 8 and NNOþ2 4). Olivine-hosted melt inclusions (Fo89-91) from tephra of the prehistoric (4 ka BP) sub-plinian picritic eruption, named FS (‘Fall Stratified’), have been investigated for their major element compositions, volatile contents and iron speciation (expressed as Fe3þ/PFe ratio). These primitive MIs present S content from 235677 to 34456168 ppm, and oxygen fugacity values, estimated from Fe3þ/PFe ratios, range from NNOþ0 760 2 to NNOþ1 660 2. Iron speciation has also been investigated in more evolved and volatile-poorer Etnean MIs. The only primitive melt inclusion from the Mt Spagnolo eruption (4–15 ka BP) presents a S content of 1515649ppm and an estimated fO2 of NNOþ1 460 1. The more evolved MIs (from 2002–2003, 2006, 2008–2009 and 2013 eruptions) have S content lower than 500 ppm, and their Fe3þ/RFe ratios result in fO2 between NNO– 0 960 1 and NNOþ0 460 1. Redox conditions and S behaviour in Etnean magmas during degassing and fractional crystallization were modelled coupling MELTS code with our empirical DSfluid/melt model. Starting from an FS-type magma composition and upon decrease of T and P, fractional crystallization of olivine, clinopyroxene, spinel and plagioclase causes a significant fO2 decrease. The fO2 reduction, in turn, causes a decrease in sulphur solubility and an increase in DSfluid/melt, promoting S exsolution during magma ascent, which further enhances the reduction of fO2. For the evolved MIs of 2002–2013 eruptions, magma differentiation may therefore have played a crucial role in decreasing redox conditions and favouring efficient S degassing. Differently, during the unusual FS eruption, only limited melt evolution is observed and S exsolution seems to have been triggered by a major pressure decrease accompanied by H2O and CO2 exsolution during fast magmatic ascent.
    Description: Published
    Description: egaa095
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: melt inclusions ; sulphur solubility experiments ; XANES ; Mt. Etna ; 04.08. Volcanology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
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    Importance of earthquake rupture geometry on tsunami modelling: the Calabrian Arc subduction interface (Italy) case study (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: The behaviour of tsunami waves at any location depends on the local morphology of the coasts, the encountered bathymetric features, and the characteristics of the source. However, the importance of accurately modelling the geometric properties of the causative fault for simulations of seismically induced tsunamis is rarely addressed. In this work, we analyse the effects of using two different geometric models of the subduction interface of the Calabrian Arc (southern Italy, Ionian Sea) onto the simulated tsunamis: a detailed 3-D subduction interface obtained from the interpretation of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles, and a planar interface that roughly approximates the 3-D one. These models can be thought of as representing two end-members of the level of knowledge of fault geometry. We define three hypothetical earthquake ruptures of different magnitudes (Mw 7.5, 8.0, 8.5) on each geometry. The resulting tsunami impact is evaluated at the 50-m isobath in front of coastlines of the central and eastern Mediterranean. Our results show that the source geometry imprint is evident on the tsunami waveforms, as recorded at various distances and positions relative to the source. The absolute differences in maximum and minimum wave amplitudes locally exceed one metre, and the relative differences remain systematically above 20 per cent with peaks over 40 per cent. We also observe that tsunami energy directivity and focusing due to bathymetric waveguides take different paths depending on which fault is used. Although the differences increase with increasing earthquake magnitude, there is no simple rule to anticipate the different effects produced by these end-member models of the earthquake source. Our findings suggest that oversimplified source models may hinder our fundamental understanding of the tsunami impact and great care should be adopted when making simplistic assumptions regarding the appropriateness of the planar fault approximation in tsunami studies. We also remark that the geological and geophysical 3-D fault characterization remains a crucial and unavoidable step in tsunami hazard analyses.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1805–1819
    Description: 3T. Sorgente sismica
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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    On the Heterogeneity of the Earthquake rupture (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-14
    Description: The scaling of earthquake parameters with seismic moment and its interpretation in terms of self- similarity is still debated in the literature. We address this question by examining a worldwide compilation of corner frequency-based and elastic rebound theory (ERT)-based fault slip, area and stress drop values for earthquakes ranging in magnitude from -0.7 to 7.8. We find that corner frequency estimates of slip (and stress drop) scale differently than those inferred from the ERT approach, where the latter deviates from the generally accepted constant stress drop behavior of so- called self-similar scaling models. We also find that average slips from finite-source models are consistent with corner frequency scaling, whereas peak slip values are more consistent with the ERT scaling. The different scaling of corner frequency- and ERT-based estimates of slip and stress drop with earthquake size is interpreted in terms of heterogeneity of the rupture process. ERT-based estimates of stress drop decrease with seismic moment suggesting a self-affine behavior. Despite the inferred heterogeneity at all scales, we do not observe a clear effect on the Brune stress drop scaling with earthquake size.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1771–1781
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake dynamics ; Earthquake source observations ; Dynamics and mechanics of faulting ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 15
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    Back to the future: old methods for new estimation and test of the Gutenberg–Richter b-value for catalogues with variable completeness (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-11
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: 2021 The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.
    Description: In this short paper we show how to use the classical maximum likelihood estimation procedure for the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law for catalogues with different levels of completeness. With a simple correction, that is subtracting the relative completeness level to each magnitude, it becomes possible to use the classical approach. Moreover, this correction allows to adopt the testing procedures, initially made for catalogues with a single level of completeness, for catalogues with different levels of completeness too.
    Description: Published
    Description: 337–339
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 16
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    Good practices in PSHA: declustering, b-value estimation, foreshocks and aftershocks inclusion; a case study in Italy (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-21
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.
    Description: The classical procedure of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) requires a Poissonian distribution of earthquakes. Seismic catalogs follow a Poisson distribution just after the application of a declustering algorithm that leaves only one earthquake for each seismic sequence (usually the stronger, i.e. the main shock). Removing earthquakes from the seismic catalogs leads to underestimation of the annual rates of the events and consequently associate with low seismic hazard as indicated by several studies. In this study, we aim investigating the performance of two declustering methods on the Italian instrumental catalog and the impact of declustering on estimation of the b-value and on the seismic hazard analysis. To this end, first the spatial variation in the seismicity rate was estimated from the declustered catalogs using the adaptive smoothed seismicity approach, considering small earthquakes (Mw≥3.0). We then corrected the seismicity rates using new approach that allows for counting all events in the complete seismic catalog by simply changing the magnitude frequency distribution. The impact of declustering on seismic hazard analysis is illustrated using PSHA maps in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) in 2 s, with 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, for Italy. We observed that the hazard calculated from the declustered catalogs was always lower than the hazard computed using the complete catalog. These results are in agreement with previous results obtained in different parts of the world.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1174–1187
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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    Multimodel Subseasonal Forecasts of Spring Cold Spells: Potential Value for the Hazelnut Agribusiness (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this time scale is particularly critical because it allows for mitigation strategies to be adopted for counteracting weather hazards and taking advantage of opportunities. For example, spring frosts are detrimental for many nut trees, resulting in dramatic losses at harvest time. To explore subseasonal forecast quality in boreal spring, identified as one of the most sensitive times of the year by agribusiness end users, we build a multisystem ensemble using four models involved in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S). Two-meter temperature forecasts are used to analyze cold spell predictions in the coastal Black Sea region, an area that is a global leader in the production of hazelnuts. When analyzed at the global scale, the multisystem ensemble probabilistic forecasts for near-surface temperature are better than climatological values for several regions, especially the tropics, even many weeks in advance; however, in the coastal Black Sea, skill is low after the second forecast week. When cold spells are predicted instead of near-surface temperatures, skill improves for the region, and the forecasts prove to contain potentially useful information to stakeholders willing to put mitigation plans into effect. Using a cost–loss model approach for the first time in this context, we show that there is added value of having such a forecast system instead of a business-as-usual strategy, not only for predictions released 1–2 weeks ahead of the extreme event, but also at longer lead times.
    Description: Published
    Description: 237–254
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 18
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    Crustal and uppermost mantle shear wave velocity structure beneath the Middle East from surface wave tomography (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: We have constructed a 3-D shear wave velocity (Vs) model for the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the Middle East using Rayleigh wave records obtained from ambient-noise cross-correlations and regional earthquakes. We combined one decade of data collected from 852 permanent and temporary broad-band stations in the region to calculate group-velocity dispersion curves. A compilation of 〉54 000 ray paths provides reliable group-velocity measurements for periods between 2 and 150 s. Path-averaged group velocities calculated at different periods were inverted for 2-D group-velocity maps. To overcome the problem of heterogeneous ray coverage, we used an adaptive grid parametrization for the group-velocity tomographic inversion. We then sample the period-dependent group-velocity field at each cell of a predefined grid to generate 1-D group-velocity dispersion curves, which are subsequently inverted for 1-D Vs models beneath each cell and combined to approximate the 3-D Vs structure of the area. The Vs model shows low velocities at shallow depths (5–10 km) beneath the Mesopotamian foredeep, South Caspian Basin, eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea, in coincidence with deep sedimentary basins. Shallow high-velocity anomalies are observed in regions such as the Arabian Shield, Anatolian Plateau and Central Iran, which are dominated by widespread magmatic exposures. In the 10–20 km depth range, we find evidence for a band of high velocities (〉4.0 km s–1) along the southern Red Sea and Arabian Shield, indicating the presence of upper mantle rocks. Our 3-D velocity model exhibits high velocities in the depth range of 30–50 km beneath western Arabia, eastern Mediterranean, Central Iranian Block, South Caspian Basin and the Black Sea, possibly indicating a relatively thin crust. In contrast, the Zagros mountain range, the Sanandaj-Sirjan metamorphic zone in western central Iran, the easternmost Anatolian plateau and Lesser Caucasus are characterized by low velocities at these depths. Some of these anomalies may be related to thick crustal roots that support the high topography of these regions. In the upper mantle depth range, high-velocity anomalies are obtained beneath the Arabian Platform, southern Zagros, Persian Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean, in contrast to low velocities beneath the Red Sea, Arabian Shield, Afar depression, eastern Turkey and Lut Block in eastern Iran. Our Vs model may be used as a new reference crustal model for the Middle East in a broad range of future studies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1349-1365
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.01. Earth Interior ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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    The Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH) (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, (2020), ISSN: 0003-0007
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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    Scenario analysis can guide aquaculture planning to meet sustainable future production goals (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    In:  EPIC3ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press, pp. 1-11, ISSN: 1054-3139
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: Marine aquaculture holds great promise for meeting increasing demand for healthy protein that is sustainably produced, but reaching necessary production levels will be challenging. The ecosystem approach to aquaculture is a framework for sustainable aquaculture development that prioritizes multiple-stakeholder participation and spatial planning. These types of approaches have been increasingly used to help guide sustainable, persistent, and equitable aquaculture planning, but most countries have difficulties in setting or meeting longer-term development goals. Scenario analysis (SA) for future planning uses similar approaches and can complement holistic methods, such as the ecosystem approach to aquaculture framework, by providing a temporal analogue to the spatially robust design. Here we define the SA approach to planning in aquaculture, outline how SA can benefit aquaculture planning, and review how this tool is already being used. We track the use of planning tools in the 20 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea member nations, with particular attention given to Norway’s development goals to 2050. We conclude that employing a combination of an ecosystem framework with scenario analyses may help identify the scale of development aquaculture goals over time, aid in evaluating the feasibility of the desired outcomes, and highlight potential social-ecological conflicts and trade-offs that may otherwise be overlooked.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 21
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    Eruptive activity on the western flank of Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean): insights on magma transfer, storage and evolution at an oceanic volcanic island (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-06-17
    Description: Petrological and geochemical (major element, trace element, Sr–Nd isotope) data for recent (〈5 kyr old) basalts that sporadically erupt on the western flank of Piton de la Fournaise (PdF), one of the most active volcanoes on Earth, allow the tracking of magma transfer and evolution from mantle to crustal depths. In the western peripheral area of PdF we document the broadly synchronous eruptions of (1) primitive olivine and olivine–clinopyroxene transitional basalts with tholeiitic affinity 30 that are closely associated in space with (2) transitional olivine basalts with alkaline affinity, and (3) hybrid lavas, intermediate between the ‘alkaline’ and the ‘tholeiitic’ end-members. The composition of the latter overlaps with that of the lavas frequently erupted from the conduit system feeding the main summit cone. AlphaMELTS modelling, and fluid inclusion and clinopyroxene barometry, constrain the conditions of magma storage at 10–30 km, and the ascent of magma from the upper 35 mantle to the shallow crustal plumbing system. Variable degrees of mantle melting, together with minor source heterogeneity and contamination with cumulate-derived partial melts, contribute to the diversity of PdF magmas. However, all these processes do not represent the dominant factors that produce the large variability we found in major element composition. Indeed, the composition of basalts erupted from PdF peripheral centers is strongly controlled by polybaric olivine–clinopyr- 40 oxene fractionation at pressures higher than 3 kbar. Crystal textures and geochemical modelling suggest that fast magma ascent is critical to prevent clinopyroxene dissolution. Conversely, longlasting magma stagnation promotes pyroxene resorption and magma differentiation. ‘Central’ eruptions occurring close to the PdF summit cone emit variably more evolved melts, which result from olivine–clinopyroxene–plagioclase differentiation at intermediate–shallow pressure (〈3 kbar and in most cases 〈1 kbar). Deep and extensive magma mixing before injection into the crustal magma conduit system, located below the summit region, results in the apparent homogeneity of basalts erupted from the central area. As regards ‘peripheral’ eruptions, deep-seated stagnation of basaltic melts and differentiation at the mantle–crust transition zone (c. 4 kbar) produces a range of 5 magma compositions. We demonstrate that rapid magma ascent from deep-seated reservoirs can bypass the central plumbing system. The eruptions of these magmas both in the central area and on the densely populated flanks have major consequences in terms of volcanic hazard at PdF.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1717–1752
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: transitional basalts ; clinopyroxene crystallization and resorption ; mantle–crust underplating
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 22
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    Overview of the mating systems of Crustacea (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    In:  EPIC3The Natural History of the Crustacea, Vol. 6: Reproductive Biology, New York, U.S.A., Oxford University Press, 30 p., pp. 277-306, ISBN: 9780190688554
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-24
    Description: Due to an exceptional variety of habitats, body plans, and lifestyles, crustaceans exhibit a wide array of mating systems. Some groups engage in simple, pure- search polygamous systems in which males usually search for receptive females. In other groups, males defend valuable resources to attract and/ or guard females to ensure paternity. Some species have developed highly complex systems of harem defense polygyny and monogamy, even cases of sub- and eusociality are reported. The expression of mating systems does not seem to be uniformly correlated to taxonomic affiliation, but is rather diverse within certain groups, suggesting that the evolution of mating systems is largely facilitated by the lifestyle of the species. Despite the broad range of mating systems in crustaceans, and although some groups have been studied comparably well, there remains a lack of knowledge about the behavioral and sexual biology of many species. In the light of the high diversity of lifestyles, mating systems, and habitats of certain groups, crustacean species would be ideal models to unravel the evolution of reproductive strategies and social behaviors.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 23
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    What causes the AMOC to weaken in CMIP5? (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-03-16
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(4), (2020): 1535-1545, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0547.1.
    Description: In a transient warming scenario, the North Atlantic is influenced by a complex pattern of surface buoyancy flux changes that ultimately weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we study the AMOC response in the CMIP5 experiment, using the near-geostrophic balance of the AMOC on interannual time scales to identify the role of temperature and salinity changes in altering the circulation. The thermal wind relationship is used to quantify changes in the zonal density gradients that control the strength of the flow. At 40°N, where the overturning cell is at its strongest, weakening of the AMOC is largely driven by warming between 1000- and 2000-m depth along the western margin. Despite significant subpolar surface freshening, salinity changes are small in the deep branch of the circulation. This is likely due to the influence of anomalously salty water in the subpolar intermediate layers, which is carried northward from the subtropics in the upper limb of the AMOC. In the upper 1000 m at 40°N, salty anomalies due to increased evaporation largely cancel the buoyancy increase due to warming. Therefore, in CMIP5, temperature dynamics are responsible for AMOC weakening, while freshwater forcing instead acts to strengthen the circulation in the net. These results indicate that past modeling studies of AMOC weakening, which rely on freshwater hosing in the subpolar gyre, may not be directly applicable to a more complex warming scenario.
    Description: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also thank John Marshall for helpful discussions on the driving mechanisms of the AMOC, and three anonymous reviewers whose comments greatly improved the manuscript. This work was supported by NASA Headquarters under the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program Award 80NSSC17K0372, and by National Science Foundation Award OCE-1433132.
    Description: 2020-07-20
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Thermohaline circulation ; Water masses/storage ; Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Climate models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 24
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    Making massive stars in the Galactic Centre via accretion on to low-mass stars within an accretion disc (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: The origin of the population of very massive stars observed within ∼0.4 pc of the supermassive black hole in the Galactic Centre is a mystery. Tidal forces from the black hole would likely inhibit in situ star formation whilst the youth of the massive stars would seem to exclude formation elsewhere followed by transportation (somehow) into the Galactic Centre. Here, we consider a third way to produce these massive stars from the lower mass stars contained in the nuclear stellar cluster which surrounds the supermassive black hole. A passing gas cloud can be tidally shredded by the supermassive black hole forming an accretion disc around the black hole. Stars embedded within this accretion disc will accrete gas from the disc via Bondi–Hoyle accretion, where the accretion rate on to a star, $dot{M}_star propto M_star ^2$. This super-exponential growth of accretion can lead to a steep increase in stellar masses, reaching the required 40–50 M⊙ in some cases. The mass growth rate depends sensitively on the stellar orbital eccentricities and their inclinations. The evolution of the orbital inclinations and/or their eccentricities as stars are trapped by the disc, and their orbits are circularized, will increase the number of massive stars produced. Thus accretion on to low-mass stars can lead to a top heavy stellar mass function in the Galactic Centre and other galactic nuclei. The massive stars produced will pollute the environment via supernova explosions and potentially produce compact binaries whose mergers may be detectable by the LIGO–VIRGO gravitational waves observatories.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
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    The observational impact of dust trapping in self-gravitating discs (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: We present a 3D semi-analytical model of self-gravitating discs, and include a prescription for dust trapping in the disc spiral arms. Using Monte Carlo radiative transfer, we produce synthetic ALMA (Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array) observations of these discs. In doing so, we demonstrate that our model is capable of producing observational predictions, and able to model real image data of potentially self-gravitating discs. For a disc to generate spiral structure that would be observable with ALMA requires that the disc’s dust mass budget is dominated by millimetre- and centimetre-sized grains. Discs in which grains have grown to the grain fragmentation threshold may satisfy this criterion; thus, we predict that signatures of gravitational instability may be detectable in discs of lower mass than has previously been suggested. For example, we find that discs with disc-to-star mass ratios as low as 0.10 are capable of driving observable spiral arms. Substructure becomes challenging to detect in discs where no grain growth has occurred or in which grain growth has proceeded well beyond the grain fragmentation threshold. We demonstrate how we can use our model to retrieve information about dust trapping and grain growth through multiwavelength observations of discs, and using estimates of the opacity spectral index. Applying our disc model to the Elias 27, WaOph 6, and IM Lup systems, we find gravitational instability to be a plausible explanation for the observed substructure in all three discs, if sufficient grain growth has indeed occurred.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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    Factories of CO-dark gas: molecular clouds with limited star formation efficiencies by far-ultraviolet feedback (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: The star formation in molecular clouds is inefficient. The ionizing extreme-ultraviolet radiation (hν ≥ 13.6 eV) from young clusters has been considered as a primary feedback effect to limit the star formation efficiency (SFE). Here, we focus on the effects of stellar far-ultraviolet (FUV) radiation (6 eV ≤ hν ≤ 13.6 eV) during the cloud disruption stage. The FUV radiation may further reduce the SFE via photoelectric heating, and it also affects the chemical states of the gas that is not converted to stars (‘cloud remnants’) via photodissociation of molecules. We have developed a one-dimensional semi-analytical model that follows the evolution of both the thermal and chemical structure of a photodissociation region (PDR) during the dynamical expansion of an H ii region. We investigate how the FUV feedback limits the SFE, supposing that the star formation is quenched in the PDR where the temperature is above a threshold value (e.g. 100 K). Our model predicts that the FUV feedback contributes to reduce the SFEs for massive (Mcl ≳ 105 M⊙) clouds with low surface densities ($Sigma _{ m cl}lesssim 100~{ m M}_odot , { m pc}^{-2}$). Moreover, we show that a large part of the H2 molecular gas contained in the cloud remnants should be ‘CO-dark’ under the FUV feedback for a wide range of cloud properties. Therefore, the dispersed molecular clouds are potential factories of CO-dark gas, which returns into the cycle of the interstellar medium.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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  • 27
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    PS1-STRM: Neural network source classification and photometric redshift catalogue for PS1 3π DR1 (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-31
    Description: The Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) 3π survey is a comprehensive optical imaging survey of three quarters of the sky in the grizy broad-band photometric filters. We present the methodology used in assembling the source classification and photometric redshift (photo-z) catalogue for PS1 3π Data Release 1, titled Pan-STARRS1 Source Types and Redshifts with Machine learning (PS1-STRM). For both main data products, we use neural network architectures, trained on a compilation of public spectroscopic measurements that has been cross-matched with PS1 sources. We quantify the parameter space coverage of our training data set, and flag extrapolation using self-organizing maps. We perform a Monte-Carlo sampling of the photometry to estimate photo-z uncertainty. The final catalogue contains 2,902,054,648 objects. On our validation data set, for non-extrapolated sources, we achieve an overall classification accuracy of $98.1\%$ for galaxies, $97.8\%$ for stars, and $96.6\%$ for quasars. Regarding the galaxy photo-z estimation, we attain an overall bias of =0.0005, a standard deviation of σ(Δznorm) = 0.0322, a median absolute deviation of MAD(Δznorm) = 0.0161, and an outlier fraction of $Pleft(|Delta z_{mathrm{norm}}|〉0.15 ight)=1.89\%$. The catalogue will be made available as a high-level science product via the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
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  • 28
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    CO observations towards H i-rich Ultradiffuse Galaxies (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: We present CO observations towards a sample of six H i-rich Ultradiffuse galaxies (UDGs) as well as one UDG (VLSB-A) in the Virgo Cluster with the Institut de RadioAstronomie Millimétrique (IRAM) 30-m telescope. CO J = 1–0 is marginally detected at 4σ level in AGC 122966, as the first detection of CO emission in UDGs. We estimate upper limits of molecular mass in other galaxies from the non-detection of CO lines. These upper limits and the marginal CO detection in AGC 122966 indicate low mass ratios between molecular and atomic gas masses. With the star formation efficiency derived from the molecular gas, we suggest that the inefficiency of star formation in such H i-rich UDGs is likely caused by the low efficiency in converting molecules from atomic gas, instead of low efficiency in forming stars from molecular gas.
    Print ISSN: 1745-3925
    Electronic ISSN: 1745-3933
    Topics: Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
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  • 29
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    An automated common algorithm for planetary boundary layer retrievals using aerosol lidars in support of the U.S. EPA Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations Program (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-26
    Description: A unique automated planetary boundary layer (PBL) retrieval algorithm is proposed as a common cross-platform method for use with commercially available ceilometers for implementation under the redesigned U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations program. This algorithm addresses instrument signal quality and screens for precipitation and cloud layers before the implementation of the retrieval methodology using the Haar wavelet covariance transform method. Layer attribution for the PBL height is supported with the use of continuation and time-tracking parameters, and uncertainties are calculated for individual PBL height retrievals. Commercial ceilometer retrievals are tested against radiosonde PBL height and cloud-base height during morning and late afternoon transition times, critical to air quality model prediction and when retrieval algorithms struggle to identify PBL heights. A total of 58 radiosonde profiles were used and retrievals for nocturnal stable layers, residual layers and mixing layers were assessed. Overall good agreement was found for all comparisons with one system showing limitations for the cases of nighttime surface stable layers and daytime mixing layer. It is recommended that nighttime shallow stable layer retrievals be performed with a recommended minimum height or with additional verification. Retrievals of residual layer heights and mixing layer comparisons revealed overall good correlations to radiosonde heights (correlation coefficients, r2, ranging from 0.89 – 0.96 and bias ranging from ~ -131 to +63 m, and r2 from 0.88 – 0.97 and bias from -119 to +101 m, respectively).
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    The Wicked Problem of Diffuse Nutrient Pollution from Agriculture (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-09
    Description: Diffuse nutrient pollution from agriculture has been the concern of policymakers for several decades, and yet it remains a persistent environmental issue. The current approach to mitigating the problem is predominantly via command and control regulation within the Nitrates Directive and the Water Framework Directive. This article will set out how diffuse pollution can be considered a wicked policy problem which acts as an explanation of how it has eluded the current regulatory regime. It will further establish that the traditional planning process overlooked the complexity of the problem. Finally, it will illustrate the ineffectiveness of the current regulatory framework to mitigate the problem. This will be exemplified through the legal framework of Northern Ireland.
    Print ISSN: 0952-8873
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-374X
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Law
    Published by Oxford University Press
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    Ejective and preventative: the IllustrisTNG black hole feedback and its effects on the thermodynamics of the gas within and around galaxies (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-31
    Description: Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) that reside at the centres of galaxies can inject vast amounts of energy into the surrounding gas and are thought to be a viable mechanism to quench star formation in massive galaxies. Here, we study the $10^{9-12.5}, mathrm{M_odot }$ stellar mass central galaxy population of the IllustrisTNG simulation, specifically the TNG100 and TNG300 volumes at z = 0, and show how the three components – SMBH, galaxy, and circumgalactic medium (CGM) – are interconnected in their evolution. We find that gas entropy is a sensitive diagnostic of feedback injection. In particular, we demonstrate how the onset of the low-accretion black hole (BH) feedback mode, realized in the IllustrisTNG model as a kinetic, BH-driven wind, leads not only to star formation quenching at stellar masses $gtrsim 10^{10.5}, mathrm{M_odot }$ but also to a change in thermodynamic properties of the (non-star-forming) gas, both within the galaxy and beyond. The IllustrisTNG kinetic feedback from SMBHs increases the average gas entropy, within the galaxy and in the CGM, lengthening typical gas cooling times from $10!-!100, mathrm{Myr}$ to $1!-!10, mathrm{Gyr}$, effectively ceasing ongoing star formation and inhibiting radiative cooling and future gas accretion. In practice, the same active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback channel is simultaneously ‘ejective’ and ‘preventative’ and leaves an imprint on the temperature, density, entropy, and cooling times also in the outer reaches of the gas halo, up to distances of several hundred kiloparsecs. In the IllustrisTNG model, a long-lasting quenching state can occur for a heterogeneous CGM, whereby the hot and dilute CGM gas of quiescent galaxies contains regions of low-entropy gas with short cooling times.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Royal Astronomical Society.
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    The stationary points of the hierarchical three-body problem (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-03
    Description: We study the stationary points of the hierarchical three body problem in the planetary limit (m1, m2 ≪ m0) at both the quadrupole and octupole orders. We demonstrate that the extension to octupole order preserves the principal stationary points of the quadrupole solution in the limit of small outer eccentricity e2 but that new families of stable fixed points occur in both prograde and retrograde cases. The most important new equilibria are those that branch off from the quadrupolar solutions and extend to large e2. The apsidal alignment of these families is a function of mass and inner planet eccentricity, and is determined by the relative directions of precession of ω1 and ω2 at the quadrupole level. These new equilibria are also the most resilient to the destabilizing effects of relativistic precession. We find additional equilibria that enable libration of the inner planet argument of pericentre in the limit of radial orbits and recover the non-linear analogue of the Laplace–Lagrange solutions in the coplanar limit. Finally, we show that the chaotic diffusion and orbital flips identified with the eccentric Kozai–Lidov mechanism and its variants can be understood in terms of the stationary points discussed here.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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    Broadband ground-motion simulation of 2016 Amatrice earthquake, Central Italy (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-31
    Description: Summary On 24th August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm/s2 on E-W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broadband seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al. (2016). The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broadband synthetic time series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC-18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
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    Spectroscopic study of magnesium dinitrogen and sodium dinitrogen cation (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-09-03
    Description: Despite its likely importance in astrochemistry, pure rotational spectra are not observable for gas phase N2 since this molecule has no permanent dipole moment. Complexation of monomeric N2 with a cationic metal (MN2+) may be kinetically and thermodynamically favorable, and the detection of such MN2+ molecules could be useful tracers of N2 in order to probe its abundance and kinetics. Highly accurate quartic force field methods have been applied here to compute rotational and vibrational spectroscopic properties of the NaN2+ and MgN2+ molecules via a coupled cluster-based composite approach with additional corrections for post-CCSD(T) electron correlation and relativistic effects. The relative energies of various isomers have also been computed and show that both NaN2+ and MgN2+ have linear ground electronic states. At the highest level of theory, rotational constants (B0) of 4086.9 and 4106.0 MHz are predicted for NaN2+ and MgN2+, respectively, with dipole moments of 6.92 D and 4.34 D, respectively making them rotationally observable even at low concentrations. Post-CCSD(T) electron correlation corrections lower the N-N stretching frequency while relativistic corrections have a much smaller effect putting the fundamental frequencies at 2333.7 cm−1 and 2313.6 cm−1, respective of NaN2+ and MgN2+ slightly above that in N2H+. Additive corrections do not significantly change the other two vibrational modes. An anharmonic, zero-point corrected N2 dissociation energy of 7.3 and 7.0 kcal mol−1 is, respectively, reported for NaN2+ and MgN2+ suggesting possible formation of these molecules in protoplanetary disks or planetary nebulae that are metal- and nitrogen-rich.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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    Formation of the large nearby galaxies (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: Simulations of galaxy formation tend to place star particles in orbits seriously different from circular in numbers far larger than seem reasonable for the bulges and stellar haloes of the nearby L ∼ L* galaxies that can be examined in particularly close detail. I offer an example of how the situation might be improved: a prescription for non-Gaussian initial conditions on the scale of galaxies.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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    Rapid compact jet quenching in the Galactic black hole candidate X-ray binary MAXI J1535−571 (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: We present results from six epochs of quasi-simultaneous radio, (sub-)millimetre, infrared, optical, and X-ray observations of the black hole X-ray binary MAXI J1535−571. These observations show that as the source transitioned through the hard–intermediate X-ray state towards the soft–intermediate X-ray state, the jet underwent dramatic and rapid changes. We observed the frequency of the jet spectral break, which corresponds to the most compact region in the jet where particle acceleration begins (higher frequencies indicate closer to the black hole), evolves from the infrared band into the radio band (decreasing by ≈3 orders of magnitude) in less than a day. During one observational epoch, we found evidence of the jet spectral break evolving in frequency through the radio band. Estimating the magnetic field and size of the particle acceleration region shows that the rapid fading of the high-energy jet emission was not consistent with radiative cooling; instead, the particle acceleration region seems to be moving away from the black hole on approximately dynamical time-scales. This result suggests that the compact jet quenching is not caused by local changes to the particle acceleration, rather we are observing the acceleration region of the jet travelling away from the black hole with the jet flow. Spectral analysis of the X-ray emission shows a gradual softening in the few days before the dramatic jet changes, followed by a more rapid softening ∼1–2 d after the onset of the jet quenching.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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    Dynamic Origin of the Interannual Variability of West China Autumn Rainfall (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-10-07
    Description: The dynamic origin of the interannual variability of West China autumn rainfall (WCAR), a special weather/climate phenomenon over western-central China in September and October, was investigated via observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Here we found that the interannual variability of WCAR is closely related to the local horizontal trough, which is passively induced by two lower-level anticyclonic (high pressure) anomalies over East Asia. The anticyclonic anomaly over the south is a Gill-type response to the central and eastern Pacific diabatic cooling, while that over the north is part of the mid- to high-latitude barotropic Rossby wave train, which could be induced by either the thermal forcing of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) cooling or that of the subtropical northern Atlantic Ocean SST warming. The quasi-barotropic high pressure anomaly over East Asia acts as an “invisible mountain” that steers the low-level anomalous southwesterly into a southeasterly and hinders the water vapor going farther to the north, leading to enhanced WCAR. However, the real mountain ranges in the region (the Qinglin and Ba Mountains) have no essential impact on the formation and interannual variability of WCAR.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Norway comes to New Zealand: Edward Kidson, Jørgen Holmboe and the Modernisation of Australasian Meteorology (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: Capsule Edward Kidson was a New Zealand scientist who spearheaded the modernisation of Australasian meteorology by introducing Bergen School methods of synoptic analysis to the Southern Hemisphere in the 1930s.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Assessment of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations and Urban Heat Island Comparison: Impacts and Implications for Tracer Transport (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Accurate simulation of planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is key to greenhouse gas emission estimation, air quality prediction, and weather forecasting. This paper describes an extensive performance assessment of several Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model configurations in which novel observations from ceilometers, surface stations, and a flux tower were used to study their ability to reproduce the PBLH and the impact that the urban heat island (UHI) has on the modeled PBLHs in the greater Washington, D.C., area. In addition, CO2 measurements at two urban towers were compared with tracer transport simulations. The ensemble of models used four PBL parameterizations, two sources of initial and boundary conditions, and one configuration including the building energy parameterization urban canopy model. Results have shown low biases over the whole domain and period for wind speed, wind direction, and temperature, with no drastic differences between meteorological drivers. We find that PBLH errors are mostly positively correlated with sensible heat flux errors and that modeled positive UHI intensities are associated with deeper modeled PBLs over the urban areas. In addition, we find that modeled PBLHs are typically biased low during nighttime for most of the configurations with the exception of those using the MYNN parameterization, and these biases directly translate to tracer biases. Overall, the configurations using the MYNN scheme performed the best, reproducing the PBLH and CO2 molar fractions reasonably well during all hours and thus opening the door to future nighttime inverse modeling.
    Print ISSN: 1558-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Drier North American monsoon in contrast to Asian-African monsoon under global warming (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: Summer monsoon rainfall supplies over 55% of annual precipitation to global monsoon regions. As shown by more than 70% of models, including 30 models from CMIP5 and 30 models from CMIP6 under high-emission scenarios, North American (NAM) monsoon rainfall decreases in a warmer climate, in sharp contrast to the robust increase in Asian-African monsoon rainfall. A hierarchy of model experiments are analyzed to understand the mechanism for the reduced NAM monsoon rainfall in this study. Modeling evidence shows that the reduction of NAM monsoon rainfall is related to both direct radiative forcing of increased CO2 concentration and SST warming, manifested as fast and slow responses to abrupt CO2 quadrupling in CGCMs. A cyclone anomaly forms over the Eurasian-African continent due to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast under increased CO2 concentration, and this leads to a subsidence anomaly on its western flank, suppressing the NAM monsoon rainfall. The SST warming acts to further reduce the rainfall over the NAM monsoon region, and the El Niño-like SST warming pattern with enhanced SST warming over the equatorial Pacific plays a key role in suppressing NAM rainfall, whereas relative cooling over the subtropical North Atlantic has no contribution. A positive feedback between monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation helps to amplify the responses of monsoon rainfall.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Soil Moisture–Evapotranspiration Overcoupling and L-Band Brightness Temperature Assimilation: Sources and Forecast Implications (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: The assimilation of L-band surface brightness temperature (Tb) into the land surface model (LSM) component of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system is generally expected to improve the quality of summertime 2-m air temperature (T2m) forecasts during water-limited surface conditions. However, recent retrospective results from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest that the assimilation of L-band Tb from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission may, under certain circumstances, degrade the accuracy of growing-season 24-h T2m forecasts within the central United States. To diagnose the source of this degradation, we evaluate ECMWF soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) forecasts using both in situ and remote sensing resources. Results demonstrate that the assimilation of SMOS Tb broadly improves the ECMWF SM analysis in the central United States while simultaneously degrading the quality of 24-h ET forecasts. Based on a recently derived map of true global SM–ET coupling and a synthetic fraternal twin data assimilation experiment, we argue that the spatial and temporal characteristics of ECMWF SM analyses and ET forecast errors are consistent with the hypothesis that the ECMWF LSM overcouples SM and ET and, as a result, is unable to effectively convert an improved SM analysis into enhanced ET and T2m forecasts. We demonstrate that this overcoupling is likely linked to the systematic underestimation of root-zone soil water storage capacity by LSMs within the U.S. Corn Belt region.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Implementing a parallel version of a variational scheme in a global assimilation system at eddy-resolving resolution (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: Recent advances in global ocean prediction systems are fostered by the needs of accurate representation of mesoscale processes. The day-by-day realistic representation of its variability is hampered by the scarcity of observations as well as the capability of assimilation systems to correct the ocean states at the same scale. This work extends a 3dvar system designed for oceanic applications, to cope with global eddy-resolving grid and dense observational datasets in a hybridly parallelized environment. The efficiency of the parallelization is assessed in term of both scalability and accuracy. The scalability is favoured by a weak-constrained formulation of the continuity requirement among the artificial boundaries implied by the domain decomposition. The formulation forces possible boundary discontinuities to be less than a prescribed error, and minimizes the parallel communication compared to standard methods. Theoretically, the exact solution is recovered by decreasing the boundary error towards zero. Practically, it is shown that the accuracy increases until a lower bound arises, due to the presence of the mesh and the finite accuracy of the minimizer. A twin experiment has been set up to estimate the benefit of employing an eddy-resolving grid within the assimilation step compared to an eddy-permitting one, while keeping the eddy-resolving grid within the forecast step. It is shown that the use of coarser grid for data assimilation does not allow an optimal exploitation of the present remote sensing observation network. A global decrease of about 15% in the error statistics is found when assimilating dense surface observations, while no significant improvement is seen for sparser observations (insitu profilers).
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Performance Evaluation of a Smart Mobile Air Temperature and Humidity Sensor for Characterizing Intracity Thermal Environment (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Heat stress caused by high air temperature and high humidity is a serious health concern for urban residents. Mobile measurement of these two parameters can complement weather station observations because of its ability to capture data at fine spatial scales and in places where people live and work. In this paper, we describe a smart temperature and humidity sensor (Smart-T) for use on bicycles to characterize intracity variations in human thermal conditions. The sensor has several key characteristics of internet of things (IoT) technology, including lightweight, low cost, low power consumption, ability to communicate and geolocate the data (via the cyclist’s smartphone), and the potential to be deployed in large quantities. The sensor has a reproducibility of 0.03°–0.05°C for temperature and of 0.18%–0.33% for relative humidity (one standard deviation of variation among multiple units). The time constant with a complete radiation shelter and moving at a normal cycling speed is 9.7 and 18.5 s for temperature and humidity, respectively, corresponding to a spatial resolution of 40 and 70 m. Measurements were made with the sensor on street transects in Nanjing, China. Results show that increasing vegetation fraction causes reduction in both air temperature and absolute humidity and that increasing impervious surface fraction has the opposite effect.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Effect of Swell on Wind Stress for Light to Moderate Winds (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-10-20
    Description: Buoy observations from a 1999 Gulf of Mexico field program (GOM99) are used to investigate the relationships among friction velocity u*, wind speed U, and amount of swell present. A U–u*sea parameterization is developed for the case of pure wind sea (denoted by u*sea), which is linear in U over the range of available winds (2–16 m s−1). The curve shows no sign of an inflection point near 7–8 m s−1 as suggested in a 2012 paper by Andreas et al. on the basis of a transition from smooth to rough flow. When observations containing more than minimal swell energy are included, a different U–u* equation for U 〈 8 m s−1 is found, which would intersect the pure wind-sea curve about 7–8 m s−1. These two relationships yield a bilinear curve similar to Andreas et al. with an apparent inflection near 7–8 m s−1. The absence of the inflection in the GOM99 experiment pure wind-sea curve and the similarity of the GOM99 swell-dominated low wind speed to Andreas et al.’s low wind speed relationship suggest that the inflection may be due to the effect of swell and not a flow transition. Swell heights in the range of only 25–50 cm may be sufficient to impact stress at low wind speeds.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Deep Eastern Boundary Currents: Realistic Simulations and Vorticity Budgets (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-10-19
    Description: Concentrated poleward flows near the eastern boundaries between 2- and 4-km depth have been observed repeatedly, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. These deep eastern boundary currents (DEBCs) play an important role in setting the large-scale tracer distribution and have nonnegligible contribution to global transports of mass, heat, and tracers, but their dynamics are not well understood. In this paper, we first demonstrate the significant role of DEBCs in the southeastern Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, using the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) data assimilating product, and using high-resolution regional general circulation model configurations. The vorticity balances of these DEBCs reveal that, over most of the width of such currents, they are in an interior-like vorticity budget, with the meridional advection of planetary vorticity βυ and vortex stretching fwz being the largest two terms, and with contributions of nonlinearity and friction that are of smaller spatial scale. The stretching is shown, using a temperature budget, to be largely forced by resolved or parameterized eddy temperature transport. Strongly decaying signals from the eastern boundary in friction and stretching form the dominant balance in a sublayer close to the eastern boundary. The temporal variability of DEBCs is then examined, to help to interpret observations that tend to be sporadic in both time and space. The probability distribution functions of northward velocity in DEBC regions are broad, implying that flow reversals are common. Although the regions of the simulated DEBCs are generally local minima of eddy kinetic energy, they are still constantly releasing westward-propagating Rossby waves.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3670
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0485
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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    Improvement in the Forecasting of Heavy Rainfall over South China in the DSAEF_LTP Model by Introducing the Intensity of the Tropical Cyclone (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: The intensity of the tropical cyclone has been introduced into the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast (DSAEF) for Landfalling Typhoon (or tropical cyclone) Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) model. Moreover the accumulated precipitation prediction experiments have been conducted on 21 target tropical cyclones with daily precipitation ≥100 mm in South China from 2012 to 2016. The best forecasting scheme for the DSAEF_LTP model is identified, and the performance of the prediction is compared with three numerical weather prediction models (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Global Forecast System and T639). The forecasting ability of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥250 mm and ≥100 mm) improves when the intensity of the tropical cyclone is introduced, giving some advantages over the three numerical weather prediction models. The selection of analog tropical cyclones with a maximum intensity (during precipitation over land) equaling to or higher than the initial intensity of the target tropical cyclone gives better forecasts. The prediction accuracy for accumulated precipitation is higher for tropical cyclones with higher intensity and higher observed precipitation, with in both cases positive linear correlations with the threat score.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
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    Three-dimensional gravity anomaly inversion in the Pyrenees using compressional seismic velocity model as structural similarity constraints (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: Summary We explore here the benefits of using constraints from seismic tomography in gravity data inversion and how inverted density distributions can be improved by doing so. The methodology is applied to a real field case in which we reconstruct the density structure of the Pyrenees along a southwest-northeast transect going from the Ebro basin in Spain to the Arzacq basin in France. We recover the distribution of densities by inverting gravity anomalies under constraints coming from seismic tomography. We initiate the inversion from a prior density model obtained by scaling a pre-existing compressional seismic velocity Vp model using a Nafe-Drake relationship : the Vp model resulting from a full-waveform inversion of teleseismic data. Gravity data inversions enforce structural similarities between Vp and density by minimizing the norm of the cross-gradient between the density and Vp models. We also compare models obtained from 2.5D and 3D inversions. Our results demonstrate that structural constraints allow us to better recover the density contrasts close to the surface and at depth, without degrading the gravity data misfit. The final density model provides valuable information on the geological structures and on the thermal state and composition of the western region of the Pyrenean lithosphere.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
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    Erratum: The evolution of CNO isotopes: a new window on cosmic star formation history and the stellar IMF in the age of ALMA (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-10-09
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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    Timescales of successful and failed subduction: insights from numerical modelling (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-18
    Description: Summary The relatively short duration of the early stages of subduction results in a poor geological record, limiting our understanding of this critical stage. Here, we utilize a 2D numerical model of incipient subduction, that is the stage after a plate margin has formed with a slab tip that extends to a shallow depth and address the conditions under which subduction continues or fails. We assess energy budgets during the evolution from incipient subduction to either a failed or successful state, showing how the growth of potential energy, and slab pull, is resisted by the viscous dissipation within the lithosphere and the mantle. The role of rheology is also investigated, as deformation mechanisms operating in the crust and mantle facilitate subduction. In all models, the onset of subduction is characterized by high lithospheric viscous dissipation and low convergence velocities, whilst successful subduction sees the mantle become the main area of viscous dissipation. In contrast, failed subduction is defined by the lithospheric viscous dissipation exceeding the lithospheric potential energy release rate and velocities tend towards zero. We show that development of a subduction zone depends on the convergence rate, required to overcome thermal diffusion and to localise deformation along the margin. The results propose a minimum convergence rate of ∼ 0.5 cm yr−1 is required to reach a successful state, with 100 km of convergence over 20 Myr, emphasizing the critical role of the incipient stage.
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    Quantitative assessment to the impact of InSAR ionospheric and tropospheric corrections on source parameter modeling: Application to the 4th nuclear test, North Korea (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-09-22
    Description: Summary Although many studies have revealed that the atmospheric effects of electromagnetic wave propagation (including ionospheric and tropospheric water vapor) have serious impacts on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurement results, atmospheric corrections have not been thoroughly and comprehensively investigated in many well-known cases of InSAR focal mechanism solutions, which means there is no consensus on whether atmospheric effects will affect the InSAR focal mechanism solution. Moreover, there is a lack of quantitative assessment on how much the atmospheric effect affects the InSAR focal mechanism solution. In this paper, we emphasized that it was particularly important to assess the impact of InSAR ionospheric and tropospheric corrections on the underground nuclear explosion modeling quantitatively. Therefore, we investigated the 4th North Korea (NKT-4) underground nuclear test using ALOS-2 liters-band SAR images. Because the process of the underground nuclear explosion was similar to the volcanic magma source activity, we modeled the ground displacement using the Mogi model. Both the ionospheric and tropospheric phase delays in the interferograms were investigated. Furthermore, we studied how the ionosphere and troposphere phase delays could bias the estimation of Mogi source parameters. The following conclusions were drawn from our case study: The ionospheric delay correction effectively mitigated the long-scale phase ramp in the full-frame interferogram, the standard deviation decreased from 1.83 cm to 0.85 cm compared to the uncorrected interferogram. The uncorrected estimations of yield and depth were 8.44 kt and 370.33 m, respectively. Compared to the uncorrected estimations, the ionospheric correction increased the estimation of yield and depth to 9.43 kt and 385.48 m while the tropospheric correction slightly raised them to 8.78 kt and 377.24 m. There were no obvious differences in the location estimations among the four interferograms. When both corrections were applied, the overall standard deviation was 1.16 cm, which was even larger than the ionospheric corrected interferogram. We reported the source characteristics of NKT-4 based on the modeling results derived from the ionospheric corrected interferogram. The preferred estimation of NKT-4 was a Mogi source located at 129°04′22.35‘E, 41°17′54.57″N buried at 385.48 m depth. The cavity radius caused by the underground explosion was 22.02 m. We reported the yield estimation to be 9.43 kt. This study showed that for large-scale natural deformation sources such as volcanoes and earthquakes, atmospheric corrections would be more significant, but even if the atmospheric signal did not have much complexity, the corrections should not be ignored.
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    Impact of the Mesoscale Range on Error Growth and the Limits to Atmospheric Predictability (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-10-20
    Description: Global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have begun to resolve the mesoscale k−5/3 range of the energy spectrum, which is known to impose an inherently finite range of deterministic predictability per se as errors develop more rapidly on these scales than on the larger scales. However, the dynamics of these errors under the influence of the synoptic-scale k−3 range is little studied. Within a perfect-model context, the present work examines the error growth behavior under such a hybrid spectrum in Lorenz’s original model of 1969, and in a series of identical-twin perturbation experiments using an idealized two-dimensional barotropic turbulence model at a range of resolutions. With the typical resolution of today’s global NWP ensembles, error growth remains largely uniform across scales. The theoretically expected fast error growth characteristic of a k−5/3 spectrum is seen to be largely suppressed in the first decade of the mesoscale range by the synoptic-scale k−3 range. However, it emerges once models become fully able to resolve features on something like a 20-km scale, which corresponds to a grid resolution on the order of a few kilometers.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    An autonomous petrological database for geodynamic simulations of magmatic systems (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: SUMMARY Self-consistent modelling of magmatic systems is challenging as the melt continuously changes its chemical composition upon crystallization, which may affect the mechanical behaviour of the system. Melt extraction and subsequent crystallization create new rocks while depleting the source region. As the chemistry of the source rocks changes locally due to melt extraction, new calculations of the stable phase assemblages are required to track the rock evolution and the accompanied change in density. As a consequence, a large number of isochemical sections of stable phase assemblages are required to study the evolution of magmatic systems in detail. As the state-of-the-art melting diagrams may depend on nine oxides as well as pressure and temperature, this is a 10-D computational problem. Since computing a single isochemical section (as a function of pressure and temperature) may take several hours, computing new sections of stable phase assemblages during an ongoing geodynamic simulation is currently computationally intractable. One strategy to avoid this problem is to pre-compute these stable phase assemblages and to create a comprehensive database as a hyperdimensional phase diagram, which contains all bulk compositions that may emerge during petro-thermomechanical simulations. Establishing such a database would require repeating geodynamic simulations many times while collecting all requested compositions that may occur during a typical simulation and continuously updating the database until no additional compositions are required. Here, we describe an alternative method that is better suited for implementation on large-scale parallel computers. Our method uses the entries of an existing preliminary database to estimate future required chemical compositions. Bulk compositions are determined within boundaries that are defined manually or through principal component analysis in a parameter space consisting of clustered database entries. We have implemented both methods within a massively parallel computational framework while utilizing the Gibbs free energy minimization program Perple_X. Results show that our autonomous approach increases the resolution of the thermodynamic database in compositional regions that are most likely required for geodynamic models of magmatic systems.
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
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    Torques felt by solid accreting planets (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-29
    Description: The solid material of protoplanetary discs forms an asymmetric pattern around a low-mass planet ($M_mathrm{p}le 10, mathrm{ M}_oplus$) due to the combined effect of dust–gas interaction and the gravitational attraction of the planet. Recently, it has been shown that although the total solid mass is negligible compared to that of gas in protoplanetary discs, a positive torque can be emerged by a certain size solid species. The torque magnitude can overcome that of gas which may result in outward planetary migration. In this study, we show that the accretion of solid species by the planet strengthens the magnitude of solid torque being either positive or negative. We run two-dimensional, high-resolution ($1.5, m {K}imes 3, m {K}$) global hydrodynamic simulations of an embedded low-mass planet in a protoplanetary disc. The solid material is handled as a pressureless fluid. Strong accretion of well-coupled solid species by an $M_mathrm{p}lesssim 0.3, mathrm{ M}_oplus$ protoplanet results in the formation of such a strongly asymmetric solid pattern close to the planet that the positive solid torque can overcome that of gas by two times. However, the accretion of solids in the pebble regime results in increased magnitude negative torque felt by protoplanets and strengthened positive torque for Earth-mass planets. For $M_mathrm{p}ge 3, mathrm{ M}_oplus$ planets, the magnitude of the solid torque is positive, however, independent of the accretion strength investigated. We conclude that the migration of solid accreting planets can be substantially departed from the canonical type-I prediction.
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    Spring Dust Mass Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 2007–19 and Connections with North Atlantic SST Variability (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-09
    Description: Dust is the major aerosol type over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and the TP plays an important role in forming the spring dust belt across the Northern Hemisphere in the upper troposphere. Estimated spring dust mass flux (DMF) showed a significant declining trend over the TP during 2007–19. The total spring DMF across the TP (TDMFTP) was mainly affected by DMFs over the Tarim Basin, while the spring DMF across the TP in the midtroposphere was also connected with DMFs over the northwest Indian Peninsula and central Asia. Interannual variability of spring TDMFTP was strongly correlated with the North Atlantic winter sea surface temperature (SST) tripole. A cold preceding winter induced by the North Atlantic winter SST tripole over midlatitude Eurasia promotes dust activities in the subsequent spring. The North Atlantic winter SST tripole anomalies persist into the subsequent spring and induce a corresponding atmosphere response. Enhanced atmospheric baroclinicity develops over northwest China and the northern Indian Peninsula during spring, which is attributed to surface thermal forcing induced by the positive winter SST tripole phase. A strong positive North Atlantic winter SST tripole anomaly strengthens the upper-level westerly jets, enhancing airflow toward the TP midtroposphere; together, these circulation patterns cause anomalous cyclonic conditions in the lower troposphere, especially over the Tarim Basin, via the eastward propagation of a Rossby wave train. These atmospheric circulation conditions are likely to increase the frequency of dust occurrence and promote the transport of dust onto the TP.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    The gas production of 14 species from comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko based on DFMS/COPS data from 2014 to 2016 (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: The coma of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko has been probed by the Rosetta spacecraft and shows a variety of different molecules. The ROSINA COmet Pressure Sensor and the Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer provide in situ densities for many volatile compounds including the 14 gas species H2O, CO2, CO, H2S, O2, C2H6, CH3OH, H2CO, CH4, NH3, HCN, C2H5OH, OCS, and CS2. We fit the observed densities during the entire comet mission between 2014 August and 2016 September to an inverse coma model. We retrieve surface emissions on a cometary shape with 3996 triangular elements for 50 separated time intervals. For each gas, we derive systematic error bounds and report the temporal evolution of the production, peak production, and the time-integrated total production. We discuss the production for the two lobes of the nucleus and for the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Moreover, we provide a comparison of the gas production with the seasonal illumination.
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    GAMA + KiDS: empirical correlations between halo mass and other galaxy properties near the knee of the stellar-to-halo mass relation (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: We use KiDS weak lensing data to measure variations in mean halo mass as a function of several key galaxy properties (namely stellar colour, specific star formation rate, Sérsic index, and effective radius) for a volume-limited sample of GAMA galaxies in a narrow stellar mass range [M* ∼ (2–5) × 1010 M⊙]. This mass range is particularly interesting, inasmuch as it is where bimodalities in galaxy properties are most pronounced, and near to the break in both the galaxy stellar mass function and the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SHMR). In this narrow mass range, we find that both size and Sérsic index are better predictors of halo mass than either colour or SSFR, with the data showing a slight preference for Sérsic index. In other words, we find that mean halo mass is more tightly correlated with galaxy structure than either past star formation history or current star formation rate. Our results lead to an approximate lower bound on the dispersion in halo masses among log M* ≈ 10.5 galaxies: We find that the dispersion is ≳0.3 dex. This would imply either that offsets from the mean SHMR are closely coupled to size/structure or that the dispersion in the SHMR is larger than what past results have suggested. Our results thus provide new empirical constraints on the relationship between stellar and halo mass assembly at this particularly interesting mass range.
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    Radio emission from a decade old Type I superluminous supernova, PTF10hgi: comparison with FRB121102 (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: We perform a comparative study between the only radio-detected Type I superluminous supernova (SLSN) PTF10hgi, and the most active repeating fast radio burst FRB121102. This study has its root in the hypothesized FRB-SLSN connection that states that magnetars born in SLSN can power FRBs. The wide-band spectrum (0.6–15 GHz) of PTF10hgi presented here, provides strong evidence for the magnetar wind nebular origin of the radio emission. The same spectrum also enables us to make robust estimates of the radius and the magnetic field of the radio-emitting region and demonstrates that the nebula is powered by the rotational energy of the magnetar. This spectrum is then compared with that of FRB121102 which we extend down to 400 MHz using archival data. The newly added measurements put very tight constraint on the emission models of the compact persistent source associated with FRB121102. We find that while both sources can be powered by the rotational energy of the underlying magnetar, the average energy injection rate is much higher in FRB121102. Hence, we hypothesize that, if PTF10hgi is indeed emitting fast radio bursts, those will be much weaker energetically than those from FRB121102.
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    Concordance Cosmology? (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: We propose a new intuitive metric for evaluating the tension between two experiments, and apply it to several data sets. While our metric is non-optimal, if evidence of tension is detected, this evidence is robust and easy to interpret. Assuming a flat ΛCDM cosmological model, we find that there is a modest 2.2σ tension between the DES Year 1 results and the Planck measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). This tension is driven by the difference between the amount of structure observed in the late-time Universe and that predicted from fitting the Planck data, and appears to be unrelated to the tension between Planck and local estimates of the Hubble rate. In particular, combining DES, Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), and supernovae (SNe) measurements recovers a Hubble constant and sound horizon consistent with Planck, and in tension with local distance-ladder measurements. If the tension between these various data sets persists, it is likely that reconciling all current data will require breaking the flat ΛCDM model in at least two different ways: one involving new physics in the early Universe, and one involving new late-time Universe physics.
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    Pyroxenite xenoliths record complex melt impregnation in the deep lithosphere of the northwestern North China Craton (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-24
    Description: Transformation of refractory cratonic mantle into more fertile lithologies is the key to the fate of cratonic lithosphere. This process has been extensively studied in the eastern North China Craton (NCC) while that of its western part is still poorly constrained. A comprehensive study of newly-found pyroxenite xenoliths from the Langshan area, in the northwestern part of this craton is integrated with a regional synthesis of pyroxenite and peridotite xenoliths to constrain the petrogenesis of the pyroxenites and provide an overview of the processes involved in the modification of the deep lithosphere. The Langshan pyroxenites are of two types, high-Mg# [Mg2+/(Mg2++Fe2+)*100 = ∼ 90, atomic ratios] olivine-bearing websterites with high equilibration temperatures (880 ∼ 970 oC), and low-Mg# (70 ∼ 80) plagioclase-bearing websterites with low equilibration temperatures (550 ∼ 835 oC). The high-Mg# pyroxenites show trade-off abundances of olivine and orthopyroxene, highly depleted bulk Sr-Nd (ƐNd = +11.41, 87Sr/86Sr = ∼0.7034) and low clinopyroxene Sr isotopic ratios (mean 87Sr/86Sr = ∼0.703). They are considered to reflect the reaction of mantle peridotites with silica-rich silicate melts derived from the convective mantle. Their depletion in fusible components (e.g., FeO, TiO2 and Na2O) and progressive exhaustion of incompatible elements suggest melt extraction after their formation. The low-Mg# pyroxenites display layered structures, convex-upward rare earth element patterns, moderately enriched bulk Sr-Nd isotopic ratios (ƐNd = -14.20 ∼ -16.74, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.7070 ∼ 0.7078) and variable clinopyroxene Sr-isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr = 0.706-0.711). They are interpreted to be crustal cumulates from hypersthene-normative melts generated by interaction between the asthenosphere and heterogeneous lithospheric mantle. Combined with studies on regional peridotite xenoliths, it is shown that the thinning and refertilization of the lithospheric mantle was accompanied by crustal rejuvenation and that such processes occurred ubiquitously in the northwestern part of the NCC. A geodynamic model is proposed for the evolution of the deep lithosphere, which includes long-term mass transfer through a mantle wedge into the deep crust from the Paleozoic to the Cenozoic, triggered by subduction of the Paleo-Asian ocean and the Late Mesozoic lithospheric extension of eastern Asia.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1460-2415
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    Predicting Rainy Season Onset in the Ethiopian Highlands for Agricultural Planning (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: The Kiremt rainy season is the foundation of agriculture in the Ethiopian Highlands and a key driver of economic development as well as the instigator of famines that have plagued the country’s history. Despite the importance of these rains, relatively little research exists on predicting the season’s onset; even less research evaluates statistical modeling approaches, in spite of their demonstrated utility for decision-making at local scales. To explore these methods, predictions are generated conditioned on three definitions of onset, at three lead times, using partial least squares (PLS) regression and random forest classification. Results illustrate moderate prediction skill and an ability to avoid false onsets, which may guide planting decisions; however, they are highly sensitive to how onset is defined, suggesting that future prediction approaches should additionally consider local agricultural definitions of onset.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    A Second-Order Closure Turbulence Model: New Heat Flux Equations and No Critical Richardson Number (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-21
    Description: We formulate a new second-order closure turbulence model by employing a recent closure for the pressure–temperature correlation at the equation level. As a result, we obtain new heat flux equations that avoid the long-standing issue of a finite critical Richardson number. The new, structurally simpler model improves on the Mellor–Yamada and Galperin et al. models; a key feature includes enhanced mixing under stable conditions facilitating agreement with observational, experimental, and high-resolution numerical datasets. The model predicts a planetary boundary layer height deeper than predicted by models with low critical Richardson numbers, as demonstrated in single-column model runs of the GISS ModelE general circulation model.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    How storms affect fishers’ decisions about going to sea (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-10-28
    Description: Fishermen are known to try to avoid fishing in stormy weather, as storms pose a physical threat to fishers, their vessels, and their gear. In this article, a dataset and methods are developed to investigate the degree to which fishers avoid storms, estimate storm aversion parameters, and explore how this response varies across vessel characteristics and across regions of the United States. The data consist of vessel-level trip-taking decisions from six federal fisheries across the United States combined with marine storm warning data from the National Weather Service. The estimates of storm aversion can be used to parameterize predictive models. Fishers’ aversion to storms decreases with increasing vessel size and increases with the severity of the storm warning. This information contributes to our understanding of the risk-to-revenue trade-off that fishers evaluate every time they consider going to sea, and of the propensity of fishers to take adaptive actions to avoid facing additional physical risk.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
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    Constraining early-time dust formation in core-collapse supernovae (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-20
    Description: There is currently a severe discrepancy between theoretical models of dust formation in core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), which predict $gtrsim 0.01 , { m M}_odot$ of ejecta dust forming within ∼1000 d, and observations at these epochs, which infer much lower masses. We demonstrate that, in the optically thin case, these low dust masses are robust despite significant observational and model uncertainties. For a sample of 11 well-observed CCSNe, no plausible model reaches carbon dust masses above $10^{-4} , { m M}_odot$, or silicate masses above $sim 10^{-3} , { m M}_odot$. Optically thick models can accommodate larger dust masses, but the dust must be clumped and have a low (
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    Otolith δ18O and microstructure analyses provide further evidence of population structure in sardine Sardinops sagax around South Africa (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-30
    Description: Sardine Sardinops sagax is an ecologically and economically important Clupeid found off the entire South African coast that includes both coastal upwelling and western boundary current systems. Although the management of the sardine fisheries historically assumed a single, panmictic population, the existence of three, semi-discrete subpopulations has recently been hypothesized. We conducted otolith δ18O and microstructure analyses to investigate nursery habitat temperatures and early life growth rates, respectively, of sardine collected from three biogeographic regions around South Africa’s coast to test that hypothesis. Analyses indicated that for both summer- and winter-captured adults and summer-captured juveniles, fishes from the west coast grew significantly slower in water that was several degrees cooler than those from the south and east coasts. This suggests that mixing of sardines between regions, particularly the west and other coasts, is relatively limited and supports the hypothesis of semi-discrete subpopulations. However, the west-south differences disappeared in the results for winter-captured juveniles, suggesting that differences in early life conditions between regions may change seasonally, and/or that all or most winter-captured juveniles originated from the west coast. Further elucidating the interactions between South African sardine subpopulations and the mechanisms thereof is important for sustainable harvesting of this species.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
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    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
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    A redshift-dependent IRX–β dust attenuation relation for TNG50 galaxies (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-03
    Description: We study the relation between the UV slope, β, and the ratio between the infrared- and UV luminosities (IRX) of galaxies from TNG50, the latest installment of the IllustrisTNG galaxy formation simulations. We select 7280 star-forming main-sequence (SFMS) galaxies with stellar mass ≥109 M⊙ at redshifts 0 ≤ z ≤ 4 and perform radiative transfer with skirt to model effects of interstellar medium dust on the emitted stellar light. Assuming a Milky Way dust type and a dust-to-metal ratio of 0.3, we find that TNG50 SFMS galaxies generally agree with observationally derived IRX–β relations at z ≲ 1. However, we find a redshift-dependent systematic offset with respect to empirically derived local relations, with the TNG50 IRX–β relation shifting towards lower β and steepening at higher redshifts. This is partially driven by variations in the dust-uncorrected UV slope of galaxies, due to different star formation histories of galaxies selected at different cosmic epochs; we suggest the remainder of the effect is caused by differences in the effective dust attenuation curves of galaxies as a function of redshift. We find a typical galaxy-to-galaxy variation of 0.3 dex in infrared excess (IRX) at fixed β, correlated with intrinsic galaxy properties: galaxies with higher star formation rates, star formation efficiencies, gas metallicities and stellar masses exhibit larger IRX values. We demonstrate a degeneracy between stellar age, dust geometry, and dust composition: z = 4 galaxies with a Small Magellanic Cloud dust type follow the same IRX–β relation as low-redshift galaxies with MW dust. We provide a redshift-dependent fitting function for the IRX–β relation for MW dust based on our models.
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    Erratum: The Rayleigh–Taylor instability in a self-gravitating two-layer viscous sphere (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-02
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
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    Underplanting is a practical silvicultural method for regenerating and diversifying conifer stands in Britain (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-30
    Description: There is a strong policy move in Britain to improve forest resilience to climate change by increasing stand structural and species diversity. Although currently little used in Britain, the technique of underplanting allows regeneration and diversification of stands while avoiding some of the disadvantages of clearfelling. Two experiments were examined: (1) the growth and survival of five underplanted conifer species of differing shade tolerance in a shelterwood and (2) compared performance of underplanted and open-grown Douglas-fir seedlings on restocking sites. Underplanted Sitka spruce, Norway spruce, noble fir, European silver fir and Douglas-fir were all able to survive and grow. However increased exposure following overstorey removal resulted in some damage and ‘socketing’, especially to taller seedlings, particularly Douglas-fir. This may be linked to poor root development when growing under an overstorey. Microclimate conditions on some underplanted sites were more sheltered from extreme climatic conditions, and in some cases this improved survival of Douglas-fir seedlings. However, seedling growth rates were reduced compared with those on open sites probably due to lower light levels. Underplanting may help to improve establishment success of some species, particularly in exposed areas. However, the shelter benefits of underplanting must be carefully balanced against the trade-off with lower light, and underplanting is likely to be more successful where low canopy density is maintained.
    Print ISSN: 0015-752X
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3626
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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    Tilted outer and inner structures in edge-on galaxies? (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-03
    Description: Tilted and warped discs inside tilted dark matter haloes are predicted from numerical and semi-analytical studies. In this paper, we use deep imaging to demonstrate the likely existence of tilted outer structures in real galaxies. We consider two SB0 edge-on galaxies, NGC 4469 and NGC 4452, which exhibit apparent tilted outer discs with respect to the inner structure. In NGC 4469, this structure has a boxy shape, inclined by ΔPA ≈ 3° with respect to the inner disc, whereas NGC 4452 harbours a discy outer structure with ΔPA ≈ 6°. In spite of the different shapes, both structures have surface brightness profiles close to exponential and make a large contribution (∼30 per cent) to the total galaxy luminosity. In the case of NGC 4452, we propose that its tilted disc likely originates from a former fast tidal encounter (probably with IC 3381). For NGC 4469, a plausible explanation may also be galaxy harassment, which resulted in a tilted or even a tumbling dark matter halo. A less likely possibility is accretion of gas-rich satellites several Gyr ago. New deep observations may potentially reveal more such galaxies with tilted outer structures, especially in clusters. We also consider galaxies, mentioned in the literature, where a central component (a bar or a bulge) is tilted with respect to the stellar disc. According to our numerical simulations, one of the plausible explanations of such observed ‘tilts’ of the bulge/bar is a projection effect due to a not exactly edge-on orientation of the galaxy coupled with a skew angle of the triaxial bulge/bar.
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    Discovery of a near-infrared bar and a pseudo-bulge in the collisional ring galaxy Cartwheel (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-03
    Description: We report the discovery of a bar, a pseudo-bulge, and unresolved point source in the archetype collisional ring galaxy Cartwheel using careful morphological analysis of a near-infrared (NIR) Ks-band image of excellent quality (seeing = 0.42″) at the ESO archive. The bar is oval-shaped with a semi-major axis length of 3.23″ (∼2.09 kpc), with almost a flat light distribution along it. The bulge is almost round (ellipticity = 0.21) with an effective radius of 1.62″ (∼1.05 kpc) and a Sersic index of 0.99, parameters typical of pseudo-bulges in late-type galaxies. The newly discovered bar is not recognizable as such in the optical images even with more than a factor of 2 higher spatial resolution of the Hubble Space Telescope, due to a combination of its red colour and the presence of dusty features. The observed bar and pseudo-bulge most likely belonged to the pre-collisional progenitor of the Cartwheel. The discovery of a bar in an archetype collisional ring galaxy Cartwheel is the first observational evidence to confirm the prediction that bars can survive a drop-through collision along with the morphological structures like a central bulge (pseudo).
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    Searching for electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational-wave merger events with the prototype Gravitational-Wave Optical Transient Observer (GOTO-4) (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-03
    Description: We report the results of optical follow-up observations of 29 gravitational-wave (GW) triggers during the first half of the LIGO–Virgo Collaboration (LVC) O3 run with the Gravitational-wave Optical Transient Observer (GOTO) in its prototype 4-telescope configuration (GOTO-4). While no viable electromagnetic (EM) counterpart candidate was identified, we estimate our 3D (volumetric) coverage using test light curves of on- and off-axis gamma-ray bursts and kilonovae. In cases where the source region was observable immediately, GOTO-4 was able to respond to a GW alert in less than a minute. The average time of first observation was 8.79 h after receiving an alert (9.90 h after trigger). A mean of 732.3 square degrees were tiled per event, representing on average 45.3 per cent of the LVC probability map, or 70.3 per cent of the observable probability. This coverage will further improve as the facility scales up alongside the localization performance of the evolving GW detector network. Even in its 4-telescope prototype configuration, GOTO is capable of detecting AT2017gfo-like kilonovae beyond 200 Mpc in favourable observing conditions. We cannot currently place meaningful EM limits on the population of distant ($hat{D}_L = 1.3$ Gpc) binary black hole mergers because our test models are too faint to recover at this distance. However, as GOTO is upgraded towards its full 32-telescope, 2 node (La Palma & Australia) configuration, it is expected to be sufficiently sensitive to cover the predicted O4 binary neutron star merger volume, and will be able to respond to both northern and southern triggers.
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    Long-lasting (65 Ma) regionally contrasting late- to post-orogenic Variscan mantle-derived potassic magmatism in the Bohemian Massif (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-10
    Description: The orogenic development after the continental collision between Laurussia and Gondwana, led to two contrasting associations of mantle-derived magmatic rocks on the territory of the Bohemian Massif: (i) a 340–310 Ma lamprophyre-lamproite orogenic association and (ii) a 300–275 Ma lamprophyre association of anorogenic affinity. Major types of potassic mantle-derived magmatic rocks recognised in the orogenic and anorogenic associations include: (i) calc-alkaline to alkaline lamprophyres, (ii) alkaline “orthopyroxene minettes” (and geochemically related rocks), and (iii) peralkaline lamproites. These three types significantly differ with respect to mineral, whole-rock and Sr–Nd–Pb–Li isotope composition, and spatial distribution. The calc-alkaline lamprophyres occur throughout the entire Saxo-Thuringian and Moldanubian zones, whereas the different types of malte-derived potassic rocks are spatially restricted to particular zones. Rocks of the Carboniferous lamprophyre-lamproite orogenic association are characterised by variable negative εNd(i) and variably radiogenic Sr(i), whereas the rocks of the Permian lamprophyre association of anorogenic affinity are characterised by positive εNd(i) and relatively young depleted-mantle Nd-model ages reflecting increasing input from upwelling asthenospheric mantle. The small variation in the Pb isotopic composition of post-collisional potassic mantle-derived magmatic rocks (of both the orogenic and anorogenic series) implies that the Pb budget of the mantle beneath the Bohemian Massif is dominated by the same crust-derived material, which itself may include material derived from several sources. The source rocks of “orthopyroxene minettes” are characterised by isotopically light (“eclogitic”) Li and strongly radiogenic (crustal) Sr and may have been metasomatised by high-pressure fluids along the edge of a subduction zone. In contrast, the strongly Al2O3 and CaO depleted mantle source of the lamproites is characterised by isotopically heavy Li and high SiO2 and extreme K2O contents. This mantle source may have been metasomatised predominantly by melts. The mantle source of the lamprophyres may have undergone metasomatism by both fluids and melts.
    Print ISSN: 0022-3530
    Electronic ISSN: 1460-2415
    Topics: Geosciences
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    Near mean motion resonance of terrestrial planet pair induced by giant planet: application to Kepler-68 system (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-02
    Description: In this work, we investigate configuration formation of two inner terrestrial planets near mean motion resonance (MMR) induced by the perturbation of a distant gas giant for the Kepler-68 system, by conducting thousands of numerical simulations. The results show that the formation of terrestrial planets is relevant to the speed of type I migration, the mass of planets, and the existence of giant planet. The mass and eccentricity of the giant planet may play a crucial role in shaping the final configuration of the system. The inner planet pair can be trapped in 5:3 or 7:4 MMRs if the giant planet revolves the central star with an eccentric orbit, which is similar to the observed configuration of Kepler-68. Moreover, we find that the eccentricity of the middle planet can be excited to roughly 0.2 if the giant planet is more massive than 5 MJ; otherwise, the terrestrial planets are inclined to remain in near-circular orbits. Our study may provide a likely formation scenario for the planetary systems that harbour several terrestrial planets near MMRs inside and one gas giant exterior to them.
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    Is Xylella fastidiosa a serious threat to European forests? (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-06
    Description: The recent emergence of Olive Quick Decline Syndrome in Italy, caused by Xylella fastidiosa, has drawn attention to the risks posed by this vector-borne bacterium to important crops in Europe (especially fruit trees and grapevine). Comparatively very little is known on actual and potential impacts of this pathogen in forests, in the native (North American) and introduced (European) regions, respectively. The present review aims to address important questions related to the threat posed by X. fastidiosa to European forests, such as the following: What are the symptoms, hosts and impact of bacterial leaf scorch caused by X. fastidiosa on trees in North America? Which forest tree species have been found infected in the introduction area in Europe? How does X. fastidiosa cause disease in susceptible hosts? Are there any X. fastidiosa genotypes (subspecies and sequence types) specifically associated with forest trees? How is X. fastidiosa transmitted? What are the known and potential vectors for forest trees? How does vector ecology affect disease? Is the distribution of X. fastidiosa, especially the strains associated with trees, restricted by climatic factors? Is disease risk for trees different in forest ecosystems as compared with urban settings? We conclude by pointing to important knowledge gaps related to all these questions and strongly advocate for more research about the Xylella-forest pathosystems, in both North America and Europe.
    Print ISSN: 0015-752X
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3626
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 74
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    NIHAO XXIV: rotation- or pressure-supported systems? Simulated Ultra Diffuse Galaxies show a broad distribution in their stellar kinematics (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-17
    Description: In recent years, a new window on galaxy evolution opened, thanks to the increasing discovery of galaxies with a low-surface brightness, such as Ultra Diffuse Galaxies (UDGs). The formation mechanism of these systems is still a much debated question and so are their kinematical properties. In this work, we address this topic by analysing the stellar kinematics of isolated UDGs formed in the hydrodynamical simulation suite Numerical Investigation of a Hundred Astrophysical Objects (NIHAO). We construct projected line-of-sight velocity and velocity dispersion maps to compute the projected specific angular momentum, λR, to characterize the kinematical support of the stars in these galaxies. We found that UDGs cover a broad distribution, ranging from dispersion to rotation-supported galaxies, with similar abundances in both regimes. The degree of rotation support of simulated UDGs correlates with several properties such as galaxy morphology, higher H i fractions, and larger effective radii with respect to the dispersion-supported group, while the dark matter halo spin and mass accretion history are similar among the two populations. We demonstrate that the alignment of the infalling baryons into the protogalaxy at early z is the principal driver of the z = 0 stellar kinematic state: pressure-supported isolated UDGs form via misaligned gas accretion while rotation-supported ones build up their baryons in an ordered manner. Accounting for random inclination effects, we predict that a comprehensive survey will find nearly half of field UDGs to have rotationally supported stellar discs, when selecting UDGs with effective radius larger than 1 kpc.
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    Statistical rock physics inversion of elastic and electrical properties for CO2 sequestration studies (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-16
    Description: SUMMARY We present a statistical rock physics inversion of the elastic and electrical properties to estimate the petrophysical properties and quantify the associated uncertainty. The inversion method combines statistical rock physics modeling with Bayesian inverse theory. The model variables of interest are porosity and fluid saturations. The rock physics model includes the elastic and electrical components and can be applied to the results of seismic and electromagnetic inversion. To describe the non-Gaussian behaviour of the model properties, we adopt non-parametric probability density functions to sample multimodal and skewed distributions of the model variables. Different from machine learning approach, the proposed method is not completely data-driven but is based on a statistical rock physics model to link the model parameters to the data. The proposed method provides pointwise posterior distributions of the porosity and CO2 saturation along with the most-likely models and the associated uncertainty. The method is validated using synthetic and real data acquired for CO2 sequestration studies in different formations: the Rock Springs Uplift in Southwestern Wyoming and the Johansen formation in the North Sea, offshore Norway. The proposed approach is validated under different noise conditions and compared to traditional parametric approaches based on Gaussian assumptions. The results show that the proposed method provides an accurate inversion framework where instead of fitting the relationship between the model and the data, we account for the uncertainty in the rock physics model.
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    Topics: Geosciences
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    Broad-band X-ray characteristics of the transient pulsar GRO J2058+42 (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-16
    Description: The Be X-ray binary GRO J2058+42 recently went through a Type-II outburst during 2019 March–April lasting for about 50 d. This outburst was detected with the operating all sky X-ray monitors like the Fermi-GBM, Swift-BAT, and MAXI-GSC. Two Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array(NuSTAR) observations were also made, one during the rise and other during the decay of the outburst. It gave us the unique opportunity to analyse the broad-band characteristics of the pulsar for the first time and accretion torque characteristics of the pulsar over a range of X-ray luminosity. The pulse profiles are strongly energy-dependent, with at least four different pulse components at low energy (〈 20 keV), which evolves to a single-peaked profile at high energy (〉 30 keV). In each of the narrow energy bands, the pulse profiles are nearly identical in the two NuSTAR observations. The spectra from both the observations are fitted well to a power-law with a Fermi–Dirac-type high-energy cutoff. We ruled out presence of a cyclotron line in the pulse phase averaged X-ray spectrum in the NuSTAR band with an optical depth greater than 0.15. An iron emission line is detected in both the NuSTAR spectra with an equivalent width of about 125 eV. We looked at the dependence of the spin-up rate on the luminosity and estimated the magnetic field strength from that, which came out to be much higher compared to other known BeXRB pulsars. Lastly, we discussed the inadequacy of the torque–luminosity relation for determination of magnetic field strength of neutron stars.
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    A statistical approach to account for azimuthal variability in single-station HVSR measurements (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-17
    Description: SUMMARY The horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) of ambient noise is commonly used to infer a site's resonance frequency (${f_{0,site}}$). HVSR calculations are performed most commonly using the Fourier amplitude spectrum obtained from a single merged horizontal component (e.g. the geometric mean component) from a three-component sensor. However, the use of a single merged horizontal component implicitly relies on the assumptions of azimuthally isotropic seismic noise and 1-D surface and subsurface conditions. These assumptions may not be justified at many sites, leading to azimuthal variability in HVSR measurements that cannot be accounted for using a single merged component. This paper proposes a new statistical method to account for azimuthal variability in the peak frequency of HVSR curves (${f_{0,HVSR}}$). The method uses rotated horizontal components at evenly distributed azimuthal intervals to investigate and quantify azimuthal variability. To ensure unbiased statistics for ${f_{0,HVSR}}$ are obtained, a frequency-domain window-rejection algorithm is applied at each azimuth to automatically remove contaminated time windows in which the ${f_{0,HVSR}}$ values are statistical outliers relative to those obtained from the majority of windows at that azimuth. Then, a weighting scheme is used to account for different numbers of accepted time windows at each azimuth. The new method is applied to a data set of 114 HVSR measurements with significant azimuthal variability in ${f_{0,HVSR}}$, and is shown to reliably account for this variability. The methodology is also extended to the estimation of a complete lognormal-median HVSR curve that accounts for azimuthal variability. To encourage the adoption of this statistical approach to accounting for azimuthal variability in single-station HVSR measurements, the methods presented in this paper have been incorporated into hvsrpy, an open-source Python package for HVSR processing.
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    Exploring the origin of ultra-diffuse galaxies in clusters from their primordial alignment (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-16
    Description: We find that the minor axes of the ultra-diffuse galaxies (UDGs) in Abell 2634 tend to be aligned with the major axis of the central dominant galaxy, at a $gtrsim 95{{ m per cent}}$ confidence level. This alignment is produced by the bright UDGs with the absolute magnitudes Mr 〈 −15.3 mag, and outer-region UDGs with R 〉 0.5R200. The alignment signal implies that these bright, outer-region UDGs are very likely to acquire their angular momenta from the vortices around the large-scale filament before they were accreted into A2634, and form their extended stellar bodies outside of the cluster; in this scenario, the orientations of their primordial angular momenta, which are roughly shown by their minor axes on the images, should tend to be parallel to the elongation of the large-scale filament. When these UDGs fell into the unrelaxed cluster A2634 along the filament, they could still preserve their primordial alignment signal before violent relaxation and encounters. These bright, outer-region UDGs in A2634 are very unlikely to be the descendants of the high-surface-brightness dwarf progenitors under tidal interactions with the central dominant galaxy in the cluster environment. Our results indicate that the primordial alignment could be a useful probe of the origin of UDGs in large-scale structures.
    Print ISSN: 1745-3925
    Electronic ISSN: 1745-3933
    Topics: Physics
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    The complex large-scale magnetic fields in the first Galactic quadrant as revealed by the Faraday depth profile disparity (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-20
    Description: The Milky Way is one of the very few spiral galaxies known to host large-scale magnetic field reversals. The existence of the field reversal in the first Galactic quadrant near the Sagittarius spiral arm has been well established, yet poorly characterized due to the insufficient number of reliable Faraday depths (FDs) from extragalactic radio sources (EGSs) through this reversal region. We have therefore performed broad-band (1–$2, { m GHz}$) spectropolarimetric observations with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) to determine the FD values of 194 EGSs in the Galactic longitude range of 20°–52° within ±5° from the Galactic mid-plane, covering the Sagittarius arm tangent. This factor of five increase in the EGS FD density has led to the discovery of a disparity in FD values across the Galactic mid-plane in the Galactic longitude range of 40°–52°. Combined with existing pulsar FD measurements, we suggest that the Sagittarius arm can host an odd-parity disc field. We further compared our newly derived EGS FDs with the predictions of three major Galactic magnetic field models, and concluded that none of them can adequately reproduce our observational results. This has led to our development of new, improved models of the Milky Way disc magnetic field that will serve as an important step towards major future improvements in Galactic magnetic field models.
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    The last breath of the Sagittarius dSph (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-18
    Description: We use the astrometric and photometric data from Gaia Data Release 2 and line-of-sight velocities from various other surveys to study the 3D structure and kinematics of the Sagittarius dwarf galaxy. The combination of photometric and astrometric data makes it possible to obtain a very clean separation of Sgr member stars from the Milky Way foreground; our final catalogue contains 2.6 × 105 candidate members with magnitudes G 〈 18, more than half of them being red clump stars. We construct and analyse maps of the mean proper motion and its dispersion over the region ∼30 × 12 deg, which show a number of interesting features. The intrinsic 3D density distribution (orientation, thickness) is strongly constrained by kinematics; we find that the remnant is a prolate structure with the major axis pointing at ∼45° from the orbital velocity and extending up to ∼5 kpc, where it transitions into the stream. We perform a large suite of N-body simulations of a disrupting Sgr galaxy as it orbits the Milky Way over the past 2.5 Gyr, which are tailored to reproduce the observed properties of the remnant (not the stream). The richness of available constraints means that only a narrow range of parameters produce a final state consistent with observations. The total mass of the remnant is $sim !4imes 10^8, mathrm{M}_odot$, of which roughly a quarter resides in stars. The galaxy is significantly out of equilibrium, and even its central density is below the limit required to withstand tidal forces. We conclude that the Sgr galaxy will likely be disrupted over the next Gyr.
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    Evaluation of ECMWF Radiation Scheme Using Aircraft Observations of Spectral Irradiance above Clouds (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Description: A novel approach to compare airborne observations of solar spectral irradiances measured above clouds with along-track radiative transfer simulations (RTS) is presented. The irradiance measurements were obtained with the Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement System (SMART) installed on the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO). The RTS were conducted using the operational ecRad radiation scheme of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and a stand-alone radiative transfer solver, the library for Radiative transfer (libRadtran). Profiles of observed and simulated radar reflectivity were provided by the HALO Microwave Package (HAMP) and the Passive and Active Microwave Transfer Model (PAMTRA), respectively. The comparison aims to investigate the capability of the two models to reproduce the observed radiation field. By analyzing spectral irradiances above clouds, different ice cloud optical parameterizations in the models were evaluated. Simulated and observed radar reflectivity fields allowed the vertical representation of the clouds modeled by the IFS to be evaluated, and enabled errors in the IFS analysis data (IFS AD) and the observations to be separated. The investigation of a North Atlantic low pressure system showed that the RTS, in combination with the IFS AD, generally reproduced the observed radiation field. For heterogeneously distributed liquid water clouds, an underestimation of upward irradiance by up to 27% was found. Simulations of ice-topped clouds, using a specific ice optics parameterization, indicated a systematic underestimation of broadband cloud-top albedo, suggesting major deficiencies in the ice optics parameterization between 1242 and 1941 nm wavelength.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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    Shallow structure of Los Humeros (LH) caldera and geothermal reservoir from magnetotellurics and potential field data (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-14
    Description: SUMMARY This study focuses in the analysis of the internal structure of the upper 3 km of Los Humeros (LH) caldera and the relation of electrical and hydrothermal anomalies. For this purpose, we measured, processed and interpreted 78 broad-band magnetotelluric (MT) soundings. We performed a 3-D inversion of the data set (ModEM) using all MT soundings, although only half of the available frequencies per sounding due to limited computed power. We also carried out the 2-D inversions (NLCG) of the invariant determinant along two orthogonal profiles (EW and NS) crossing the caldera structure; their comparison yields similar resistivity and structural models results. The resistivity modelling is complemented with the results of a joint 3-D inversion of an accurate gravity database of 720 stations, and total field aeromagnetic data (SGM) from the caldera crater. The combined results provide novel details about the structure of the shallow geothermal reservoir of the resurgence caldera complex hosting the active hydrothermal system. Density and resistivity models show the existence of a composed crater basin structure separated by an EW high-density structure; the northern basin is associated to the LH crater, whereas the southern basin associates to the emergent Los Potreros (LP) caldera basin. The magnetization model indicates that there is a common source for the magnetic volcanic products observed at the caldera surface, and that the LP fault is the more magnetized fault of the geothermal system. The propylic zoning under the geothermal field, which according to the MT model results has resistivities above ∼100 Ω-m, was extrapolated using this and additional criteria to obtain the distribution of other hypothetical propylitic zones of hydrothermal potential.
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    The LSST DESC data challenge 1: generation and analysis of synthetic images for next-generation surveys (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Description: Data Challenge 1 (DC1) is the first synthetic data set produced by the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC). DC1 is designed to develop and validate data reduction and analysis and to study the impact of systematic effects that will affect the LSST data set. DC1 is comprised of r-band observations of 40 deg2 to 10 yr LSST depth. We present each stage of the simulation and analysis process: (a) generation, by synthesizing sources from cosmological N-body simulations in individual sensor-visit images with different observing conditions; (b) reduction using a development version of the LSST Science Pipelines; and (c) matching to the input cosmological catalogue for validation and testing. We verify that testable LSST requirements pass within the fidelity of DC1. We establish a selection procedure that produces a sufficiently clean extragalactic sample for clustering analyses and we discuss residual sample contamination, including contributions from inefficiency in star–galaxy separation and imperfect deblending. We compute the galaxy power spectrum on the simulated field and conclude that: (i) survey properties have an impact of 50 per cent of the statistical uncertainty for the scales and models used in DC1; (ii) a selection to eliminate artefacts in the catalogues is necessary to avoid biases in the measured clustering; and (iii) the presence of bright objects has a significant impact (2σ–6σ) in the estimated power spectra at small scales (ℓ 〉 1200), highlighting the impact of blending in studies at small angular scales in LSST.
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    Dynamic zoom simulations: A fast, adaptive algorithm for simulating light-cones (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-23
    Description: The advent of a new generation of large-scale galaxy surveys is pushing cosmological numerical simulations in an uncharted territory. The simultaneous requirements of high resolution and very large volume pose serious technical challenges, due to their computational and data storage demand. In this paper, we present a novel approach dubbed dynamic zoom simulations – or dzs – developed to tackle these issues. Our method is tailored to the production of light-cone outputs from N-body numerical simulations, which allow for a more efficient storage and post-processing compared to standard comoving snapshots, and more directly mimic the format of survey data. In dzs, the resolution of the simulation is dynamically decreased outside the light-cone surface, reducing the computational work load, while simultaneously preserving the accuracy inside the light-cone and the large-scale gravitational field. We show that our approach can achieve virtually identical results to traditional simulations at half of the computational cost for our largest box. We also forecast this speedup to increase up to a factor of 5 for larger and/or higher resolution simulations. We assess the accuracy of the numerical integration by comparing pairs of identical simulations run with and without dzs. Deviations in the light-cone halo mass function, in the sky-projected light-cone, and in the 3D matter light-cone always remain below 0.1 per cent. In summary, our results indicate that the dzs technique may provide a highly valuable tool to address the technical challenges that will characterize the next generation of large-scale cosmological simulations.
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    Generalized emergent dark energy: observational Hubble data constraints and stability analysis (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Description: Recently, a phenomenologically emergent dark energy (PEDE) model was presented with a dark energy density evolving as $widetilde{Omega }_{ m {DE}}(z) = Omega _{ m {DE,0}}[ 1 - { m {tanh}}({log }_{10}(1+z))]$, i.e. with no degree of freedom. Later on, a generalized model was proposed by adding one degree of freedom to the PEDE model, encoded in the parameter Δ. Motivated by these proposals, we constrain the parameter space ($h,Omega _m^{(0)}$) and ($h,Omega _m^{(0)}, Delta$) for PEDE and generalized emergent dark energy (GEDE), respectively, by employing the most recent observational (non-)homogeneous and differential age Hubble data. Additionally, we reconstruct the deceleration and jerk parameters and estimate yield values at z = 0 of $q_0 = -0.784^{+0.028}_{-0.027}$ and $j_0 = 1.241^{+0.164}_{-0.149}$ for PEDE and $q_0 = -0.730^{+0.059}_{-0.067}$ and $j_0 = 1.293^{+0.194}_{-0.187}$ for GEDE using the homogeneous sample. We report values on the deceleration–acceleration transition redshift with those reported in the literature within 2σ CL. Furthermore, we perform a stability analysis of the PEDE and GEDE models to study the global evolution of the Universe around their critical points. Although the PEDE and GEDE dynamics are similar to the standard model, our stability analysis indicates that in both models there is an accelerated phase at early epochs of the Universe evolution.
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    The Magellanic Edges Survey I: Description and first results (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-14
    Description: We present an overview of, and first science results from, the Magellanic Edges Survey (MagES), an ongoing spectroscopic survey mapping the kinematics of red clump and red giant branch stars in the highly substructured periphery of the Magellanic Clouds. In conjunction with Gaia astrometry, MagES yields a sample of ~7000 stars with individual 3D velocities that probes larger galactocentric radii than most previous studies. We outline our target selection, observation strategy, data reduction, and analysis procedures, and present results for two fields in the northern outskirts (〉10° on-sky from the centre) of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). One field, located in the vicinity of an arm-like overdensity, displays apparent signatures of perturbation away from an equilibrium disc model. This includes a large radial velocity dispersion in the LMC disc plane, and an asymmetric line-of-sight velocity distribution indicative of motions vertically out of the disc plane for some stars. The second field reveals 3D kinematics consistent with an equilibrium disc, and yields Vcirc = 87.7 ± 8.0 km s−1 at a radial distance of ~10.5 kpc from the LMC centre. This leads to an enclosed mass estimate for the LMC at this radius of (1.8 ± 0.3) × 1010 M⊙.
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    Improved Length Scales for Turbulence Kinetic Energy–Based Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme for the Convective Atmospheric Boundary Layer (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: Based on a priori analysis of large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the convective atmospheric boundary layer, improved turbulent mixing and dissipation length scales are proposed for a turbulence kinetic energy (TKE)-based planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. The turbulent mixing length incorporates surface similarity and TKE constraints in the surface layer, and makes adjustments for lateral entrainment effects in the mixed layer. The dissipation length is constructed based on balanced TKE budgets accounting for shear, buoyancy, and turbulent mixing. A nongradient term is added to the TKE flux to correct for nonlocal turbulent mixing of TKE. The improved length scales are implemented into a PBL scheme, and are tested with idealized single-column convective boundary layer (CBL) cases. Results exhibit robust applicability across a broad CBL stability range, and are in good agreement with LES benchmark simulations. It is then implemented into a community atmospheric model and further evaluated with 3D real-case simulations. Results of the new scheme are of comparable quality to three other well-established PBL schemes. Comparisons between simulated and radiosonde-observed profiles show favorable performance of the new scheme on a clear day.
    Print ISSN: 0022-4928
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0469
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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    Probabilistic cosmic web classification using fast-generated training data (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Description: We present a novel method of robust probabilistic cosmic web particle classification in three dimensions using a supervised machine learning algorithm. Training data were generated using a simplified ΛCDM toy model with pre-determined algorithms for generating haloes, filaments, and voids. While this framework is not constrained by physical modelling, it can be generated substantially more quickly than an N-body simulation without loss in classification accuracy. For each particle in this data set, measurements were taken of the local density field magnitude and directionality. These measurements were used to train a random forest algorithm, which was used to assign class probabilities to each particle in a ΛCDM, dark matter-only N-body simulation with 2563 particles, as well as on another toy model data set. By comparing the trends in the ROC curves and other statistical metrics of the classes assigned to particles in each data set using different feature sets, we demonstrate that the combination of measurements of the local density field magnitude and directionality enables accurate and consistent classification of halo, filament, and void particles in varied environments. We also show that this combination of training features ensures that the construction of our toy model does not affect classification. The use of a fully supervised algorithm allows greater control over the information deemed important for classification, preventing issues arising from arbitrary hyperparameters and mode collapse in deep learning models. Due to the speed of training data generation, our method is highly scalable, making it particularly suited for classifying large data sets, including observed data.
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    Cosmological parameter analyses using transversal BAO data (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-11
    Description: We investigate observational constraints on cosmological parameters combining 15 measurements of the transversal BAO scale (obtained free of any fiducial cosmology) with Planck–CMB data to explore the parametric space of some cosmological models. We investigate how much Planck + transversal BAO data can constraint the minimum Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model, and extensions, including neutrinos mass scale Mν, and the possibility for a dynamical dark energy (DE) scenario. Assuming the ΛCDM cosmology, we find H0 = 69.23 ± 0.50 km s−1 Mpc−1, Mν 〈 0.11 eV, and rdrag = 147.59 ± 0.26 Mpc (the sound horizon at drag epoch) from Planck + transversal BAO data. When assuming a dynamical DE cosmology, we find that the inclusion of the BAO data can indeed break the degeneracy of the DE free parameters, improving the constraints on the full parameter space significantly. We note that the model is compatible with local measurements of H0 and there is no tension on H0 estimates in this dynamical DE context. Also, we discuss constraints and consequences from a joint analysis with the local H0 measurement from SH0ES. Finally, we perform a model-independent analysis for the deceleration parameter, q(z), using only information from transversal BAO data.
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    Correlation based snapshot models of the archeomagnetic field (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Description: SUMMARY For the time stationary global geomagnetic field, a new modelling concept is presented. A Bayesian non-parametric approach provides realistic location dependent uncertainty estimates. Modelling related variabilities are dealt with systematically by making little subjective a priori assumptions. Rather than parametrizing the model by Gauss coefficients, a functional analytic approach is applied. The geomagnetic potential is assumed a Gaussian process to describe a distribution over functions. A priori correlations are given by an explicit kernel function with non-informative dipole contribution. A refined modelling strategy is proposed that accommodates non-linearities of archeomagnetic observables: First, a rough field estimate is obtained considering only sites that provide full field vector records. Subsequently, this estimate supports the linearization that incorporates the remaining incomplete records. The comparison of results for the archeomagnetic field over the past 1000 yr is in general agreement with previous models while improved model uncertainty estimates are provided.
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    Topics: Geosciences
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    Dust size and spatial distributions in debris discs: predictions for exozodiacal dust dragged in from an exo-Kuiper belt (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-11
    Description: The spectral energy distributions of some nearby stars show mid-infrared (IR) excesses from warm habitable zone dust, known as exozodiacal dust. This dust may originate in collisions in a planetesimal belt before being dragged inwards. This paper presents an analytical model for the size distribution of particles at different radial locations in such a scenario, considering evolution due to destructive collisions and Poynting–Robertson (P–R) drag. Results from more accurate but computationally expensive numerical simulations of this process are used to validate the model and fit its free parameters. The model predicts 11 μm excesses (R11) for discs with a range of dust masses and planetesimal belt radii using realistic grain properties. We show that P–R drag should produce exozodiacal dust levels detectable with the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer (LBTI) ($R_{11} gt 0.1{{ m per cent}}$) in systems with known outer belts; non-detection may indicate dust depletion, e.g. by an intervening planet. We also find that LBTI could detect exozodiacal dust dragged in from a belt too faint to detect at far-IR wavelengths, with fractional luminosity f ∼ 10−7 and radius ∼10–80 au. Application to systems observed with LBTI shows that P–R drag can likely explain most (5/9) of the exozodiacal dust detections in systems with known outer belts; two systems (β Uma and η Corvi) with bright exozodi may be due to exocomets. We suggest that the three systems with exozodiacal dust detections but no known belt may have cold planetesimal belts too faint to be detectable in the far-IR. Even systems without outer belt detections could have exozodiacal dust levels $R_{11} gt 0.04{{ m per cent}}$ which are problematic for exo-Earth imaging.
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    Towards real-time monitoring: data assimilated time-lapse full waveform inversion for seismic velocity and uncertainty estimation (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Description: SUMMARY Rapid development of time-lapse seismic monitoring instrumentations has made it possible to collect dense time-lapse data for tomographically retrieving time-lapse (even continuous) images of subsurface changes. While traditional time-lapse full waveform inversion (TLFWI) algorithms are designed for sparse time-lapse surveys, they lack of effective temporal constraint on time-lapse data, and, more importantly, lack of the uncertainty estimation of the TLFWI results that is critical for further interpretation. Here, we propose a new data assimilation TLFWI method, using hierarchical matrix powered extended Kalman filter (HiEKF) to quantify the image uncertainty. Compared to existing Kalman filter algorithms, HiEKF allows to store and update a data-sparse representation of the cross-covariance matrices and propagate model errors without expensive operations involving covariance matrices. Hence, HiEKF is computationally efficient and applicable to 3-D TLFWI problems. Then, we reformulate TLFWI in the framework of HiEKF (termed hereafter as TLFWI-HiEKF) to predict time-lapse images of subsurface spatiotemporal velocity changes and simultaneously quantify the uncertainty of the inverted velocity changes over time. We demonstrate the validity and applicability of TLFWI–HiEKF with two realistic CO2 monitoring models derived from Frio-II and Cranfield CO2 injection sites, respectively. In both 2-D and 3-D examples, the inverted high-resolution time-lapse velocity results clearly reveal a continuous velocity reduction due to the injection of CO2. Moreover, the accuracy of the model is increasing over time by assimilating more time-lapse data while the standard deviation is decreasing over lapsed time. We expect TLFWI-HiEKF to be equipped with real-time seismic monitoring systems for continuously imaging the distribution of subsurface gas and fluids in the future large-scale CO2 sequestration experiments and reservoir management.
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    Topics: Geosciences
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    Experimental stark widths and shifts of V II spectral lines (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-15
    Description: We have measured the Stark widths and shifts of V II spectral lines in the wavelength range 2000–4200 Å belonging to 75 multiplets. The spectra are emitted by laser-induced plasmas generated from fused glass discs prepared by borate fusion. The electron density and temperature are in the ranges (0.72–6.5) × 1017 cm−3 and (11 000–14 900) K, respectively. To avoid self-absorption, we have used seven samples with vanadium concentrations selected by the CSigma graph methodology. This has allowed to include strong and weak lines in the study, including resonance and forbidden lines. The experimental widths and shifts are compared with theoretical values available in the literature.
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    Long-term study of extreme giant pulses from PSR B0950+08 with AARTFAAC (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-13
    Description: We report on the detection of extreme giant pulses (GPs) from one of the oldest known pulsars, the highly variable PSR B0950+08, with the Amsterdam-ASTRON Radio Transient Facility And Analysis Centre (AARTFAAC), a parallel transient detection instrument operating as a subsystem of the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR). During processing of our Northern Hemisphere survey for low-frequency radio transients, a sample of 275 pulses with fluences ranging from 42 to 177 kJy ms were detected in one-second snapshot images. The brightest pulses are an order of magnitude brighter than those previously reported at 42 and 74 MHz, on par with the levels observed in a previous long-term study at 103 MHz. Both their rate and fluence distribution differ between and within the various studies done to date. The GP rate is highly variable, from 0 to 30 per hour, with only two 3-h observations accounting for nearly half of the pulses detected in the 96 h surveyed. It does not vary significantly within a few-hour observation, but can vary strongly one from day to the next. The spectra appear strongly and variably structured, with emission sometimes confined to a single 195.3 kHz subband, and the pulse spectra changing on a time-scale of order 10 min.
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    Radio variability from corotating interaction regions threading Wolf–Rayet winds (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-10
    Description: The structured winds of single massive stars can be classified into two broad groups: stochastic structure and organized structure. While the former is typically identified with clumping, the latter is typically associated with rotational modulations, particularly the paradigm of corotating interaction regions (CIRs). While CIRs have been explored extensively in the ultraviolet band, and moderately in the X-ray and optical, here we evaluate radio variability from CIR structures assuming free–free opacity in a dense wind. Our goal is to conduct a broad parameter study to assess the observational feasibility, and to this end, we adopt a phenomenological model for a CIR that threads an otherwise spherical wind. We find that under reasonable assumptions, it is possible to obtain radio variability at the 10 per cent level. The detailed structure of the folded light curve depends not only on the curvature of the CIR, the density contrast of the CIR relative to the wind, and viewing inclination, but also on wavelength. Comparing light curves at different wavelengths, we find that the amplitude can change, that there can be phase shifts in the waveform, and the entire waveform itself can change. These characterstics could be exploited to detect the presence of CIRs in dense, hot winds.
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    Effects of density on the oxygen ionization equilibrium in collisional plasmas (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-10
    Description: The ion populations most frequently adopted for diagnostics in collisional plasmas are derived from the density independent coronal approximation. In higher density, lower temperature conditions, ionization rates are enhanced once metastable levels become populated, and recombination rates are suppressed if ions recombine into Rydberg levels. As a result, the formation temperatures of ions shift, altering the diagnostics of the plasma. To accurately model the effect of ionization from metastable levels, new electron impact ionization cross-sections have been calculated for oxygen, both for direct ionization and excitation–auto-ionization of the ground and metastable levels. The results have been incorporated into collisional radiative modelling to show how the ionization equilibrium of oxygen changes once metastable levels become populated. Suppression of dielectronic recombination has been estimated and also included in the modelling, demonstrating the shifts with density in comparison to the coronal approximation. The final results for the ionization equilibrium are used in differential emission measure modelling to predict line intensities for many lines emitted by O ii–O vi in the solar transition region. The predictions show improved agreement by 15–40 per cent for O ii, O vi, and the intercombination lines of O iii–O v, when compared to results from coronal approximation modelling. While there are still discrepancies with observations of these lines, this could, to a large part, be explained by variability in the observations.
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    Role of cosmic rays in the early stages of galactic outflows (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-11
    Description: Using an idealized set-up, we investigate the dynamical role of cosmic rays (CRs) in the early stages of galactic outflows for galaxies of halo masses 108, 1011, and 1012 M⊙. The outflow is launched from a central region in the galactic disc where we consider three different constant star formation rates (0.1, 1, and 10 $mathrm{M}_odot , mathrm{yr}^{-1}$) over a dynamical time-scale of 50 Myr. We determine the temperature distribution of the gas and find that CRs can reduce the temperature of the shocked gas, which is consistent with previous results. However, we show that CRs do not have any noticeable effect on the mass loading by the outflow. We find that CRs can reduce the size of the outflow, which contradicts previous claims of efficient dynamical impact of CRs; however, it is consistent with earlier theoretical models of CR-driven blastwave as well as stellar wind. We discuss the dependence of our results on CR injection prescriptions and compare them with earlier studies. We conclude that in the early stages of galactic outflows the dynamical role of CRs is not important.
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    3D structure of the H ii region Sh2-235 from tunable-filter optical observations (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-10
    Description: We present observations of the H α, H β, [S ii] λλ6716, 6731 and [N ii] λ6583 emission lines in the galactic H ii region Sh2-235 with the Mapper of Narrow Galaxy Lines (MaNGaL), a tunable filter at the 1-m telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences. We show that the H ii region is obscured by neutral material with AV ≈ 2−4 mag. The area with the highest AV is situated to the south-west from the ionizing star and coincides with a maximum detected electron density of ≳300 cm−3. The combination of these results with archive AKARI far-infrared data allows us to estimate the contribution of the front and rear walls to the total column density of neutral material in S235 and explain the 3D structure of the region. The H ii region consist of a denser, more compact portion deeply embedded in the neutral medium and the less dense and obscured gas. The front and rear walls of the H ii region are inhomogeneous, with the material in the rear wall having a higher column density. We find a two-sided photodissociation region in the dense clump S235 East 1, illuminated by a UV field with G0 = 50−70 and 200 Habing units in the western and eastern parts, respectively.
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    The interior of Comet 67P/C–G; revisiting CONSERT results with the exact position of the Philae lander (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-15
    Description: CONSERT, a bistatic radar onboard the Rosetta spacecraft and its Philae lander, was designed to probe the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko with radio waves at 90 MHz frequency. In 2016 September, the exact position of Philae was retrieved, within the region previously identified by CONSERT. This allowed us to revisit the measurements and improve our analysis of the properties of the interior, the results of which we present here. The relative permittivity of the materials is found to range from about 1.7 to 1.95 in the shallow subsurface (
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    Seismicity induced by massive wastewater injection near Puerto Gaitán, Colombia (2020)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-06
    Description: SUMMARY Seven years after the beginning of a massive wastewater injection project in eastern Colombia, local earthquake activity increased significantly. The field operator and the Colombian Geological Survey immediately reinforced the monitoring of the area. Our analysis of the temporal evolution of the seismic and injection data together with our knowledge of the geological parameters of the region indicate that the surge of seismicity is being induced by the re-injection of produced water into the same three producing reservoirs. Earthquake activity began on known faults once disposal rates had reached a threshold of ∼2 × 106 m3 of water per month. The average reservoir pressure had remained constant at 7.6 MPa after several years of production, sustained by a large, active aquifer. Surface injection pressures in the seismically active areas remain below 8.3 MPa, a value large enough to activate some of the faults. Since faults are mapped throughout the region and many do not have seismicity on them, we conclude that the existence of known faults is not the only control on whether earthquakes are generated. Stress conditions of these faults are open to future studies. Earthquakes are primarily found in four clusters, located near faults mapped by the operator. The hypocentres reveal vertical planes with orientations consistent with focal mechanisms of these events. Stress inversion of the focal mechanisms gives a maximum compression in the direction ENE-WSW, which is in agreement with borehole breakout measurements. Since the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes are consistent with the tectonic stress regime, we can conclude that the seismicity is resulting from the activation of critically stressed faults. Slip was progressive and seismic activity reached a peak before declining to few events per month. The decline in seismicity suggests that most of the stress has been relieved on the main faults. The magnitude of a large majority of the recorded earthquakes was lower than 4, as the pore pressure disturbance did not reach the mapped large faults whose activation might have resulted in larger magnitude earthquakes. Our study shows that a good knowledge of the local fault network and conditions of stress is of paramount importance when planning a massive water disposal program. These earthquakes indicate that while faults provide an opportunity to dispose produced water at an economically attractive volume–pressure ratio, the possibility of induced seismicity must also be considered.
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