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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-06-05
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-03-15
    Description: In a recent work we computed the relative frequencies with which strong shocks (4.0≤Mw〈5.0), widely felt by the population were followed in the same area by potentially destructive main shocks (Mw≥5.0) in Italy. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies can be tentatively used to estimate the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. This allows us to set up an alarm-based forecasting hypothesis related to strong foreshocks occurrence. Such hypothesis is tested retrospectively on the data of a homogenized seismic catalogue of the Italian area against a purely random hypothesis that simply forecasts the target main shocks proportionally to the space-time fraction occupied by the alarms. We compute the latter fraction in two ways a) as the ratio between the average time covered by the alarms in each area and the total duration of the forecasting experiment (60 years) and b) as the same ratio but weighted by the past frequency of occurrence of earthquakes in each area. In both cases the overall retrospective performance of our forecasting algorithm is definitely better than the random case. Considering an alarm duration of three months, the algorithm retrospectively forecasts more than 70% of all shocks with Mw5.5 occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2019 with a total space-time fraction covered by the alarms of the order of 2%. Considering the same space-time coverage, the algorithm is also able to retrospectively forecasts more than 40% of the first main shocks with Mw5.5 of the seismic sequences occurred in the same time interval. Given the good reliability of our results, the forecasting algorithm is set and ready to be tested also prospectively, in parallel to other ongoing procedures operating on the Italian territory.
    Description: This paper benefitted from funding provided by the European Union within the ambit of the H2020 project RISE (No. 821115), which in particular fully financed the PhD grant of one of the authors (E.B.).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1192–1206
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake interaction ; Statistical seismology ; forecasting, ; prediction ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-03-03
    Description: We derive a unifying formulation, reliable at all scales, linking Anderson’s faulting theory with the earthquake size-distribution, whose exponent is known as the b-value. Anderson’s theory, introduced in 1905, related fault orientation to stress conditions. Independently, laboratory measurements on acoustic emissions have established that the applied differential stress controls their b-value. Our global survey revealed that observed spatial variations of bare controlled by different stress regimes, generally being lower in compressional (subduction trenches and continental collisional systems) and higher in extensional regimes (oceanic ridges). This confirmed previous observations that the b-value depends on the rake angle of focal mechanisms. Using a new plunge/dip-angles-based b-value analysis, we also identified further systematic influences of faulting geometry: steep normal faults (also typical of the oldest subduction zones) experience the highest proportion of smaller events, while low-angle thrust faults (typical of youngest subduction zones) undergo proportionally larger, more hazardous, events, differently from what would be expected by only allowing for rake-angle dependency. To date, however, no physical model has ever been proposed to explain how earthquakes size-distribution, differential stress and faulting styles relate to each other. Here, we propose and analytically derive a unifying formulation for describing how fault orientation and differential stresses determine b-value. Our formulation confirms that b-values decay linearly with increasing differential stress, but it also predicts a different dip-dependent modulation according to the tectonic environment, opening up new ways of assessing a region’s seismic hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: 115791
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: statistical seismology earthquake size-distribution faulting styles Anderson’s theory of faulting Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion ; Anderson’s theory of faulting ; faulting styles ; earthquake size-distribution ; statistical seismology ; Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion ; 04. Solid Earth
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2019-11-21
    Description: We analyse two high-quality Southern Californian earthquake catalogues, one with focal mechanisms, to statistically model and test for dependencies of the earthquake-size distribution, the b-values, on both faulting style and depth. In our null hypothesis, b is assumed constant. We then develop and calibrate one model based only on faulting style, another based only on depth dependence and two models that assume a simultaneous dependence on both parameters. We develop a new maximum-likelihood estimator corrected for the degrees of freedom to assess models’ performances. Our results show that all models significantly reject the null hypothesis. The best performing is the one that simultaneously takes account of depth and faulting style. Our results suggest that differential-stress variations in the Earth’s crust systematically influence b-values and that this variability should be considered for contemporary seismic hazard studies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 11044-11053
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: We model the dependence of the b-value on depth and tectonic style in Southern California ; Simultaneous dependencies result with high statistical significance in the best data description ; Statistical tests reveal that faulting style affects the b-value more than depth
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-04-02
    Description: Previous works suggested that the slope (b-value) of the frequency–magnitude distribution of earthquakes might significantly vary as a function of the style of faulting. In this work, we resume such hypothesis using improved datasets and procedures and by testing a simple harmonic functional form of the b-value as a function of the angle of rake λ. Using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog updated to the middle of 2016, we reliably compute the b-value over 12 nonoverlapping rake windows with width γ 30° showing a clear oscillating behavior with highs for normal and lows for reverse mechanisms. We also test the existence of a spatial link between variations of the style of faulting and of the b-value by determining the rake and the b-value separately from the Global CMT catalog and from a magnitude homogenized version of the bulletin of the International Seismological Centre, respectively, based on a spatial tessellation of the Earth’s surface. For both approaches, we verify, using two statistical methods, that the b-values computed from earthquakes with different tectonic styles are actually different from each other for many combinations of rakes and particularly for all combinations of almost pure tectonic styles. We find that the fitted harmonic function has zero phase and unit frequency, thus indicating that b-value modulation is about proportional to −sin λ. Because the latter corresponds to the dot product between the unit versors of the coseismic displacement and of the gravity force component along the fault plane, b-value modulation appears to be about proportional to the work done by the gravity force during the fault slip.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1864-1876
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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