ALBERT

Description: The M = 8.1 Chiapas and the M = 7.1 Puebla earthquakes occurred in the bending part of the subducting Cocos plate 11 days and ~600 km apart, a range that puts them well outside the typical aftershock zone. We find this to be a relatively common occurrence in Mexico, with 14% of M 〉 7.0 earthquakes since 1900 striking more than 300 km apart and within a 2 week interval, not different from a randomized catalog. We calculate the triggering potential caused by crustal stress redistribution from large subduction earthquakes over the last 40 years. There is no evidence that static stress transfer or dynamic triggering from the 8 September Chiapas earthquake promoted the 19 September earthquake. Both recent earthquakes were promoted by past thrust events instead, including delayed afterslip from the 2012 M = 7.5 Oaxaca earthquake. A repeated pattern of shallow thrust events promoting deep intraslab earthquakes is observed over the past 40 years. ©2018. The Authors.

Description: Operational earthquake forecasting protocols commonly use statistical models for their recognized ease of implementation and robustness in describing the short-term spatiotemporal patterns of triggered seismicity. However, recent advances on physics-based aftershock forecasting reveal comparable performance to the standard statistical counterparts with significantly improved predictive skills when fault and stress-field heterogeneities are considered. Here, we perform a pseudoprospective forecasting experiment during the first month of the 2019 Ridgecrest (California) earthquake sequence. We develop seven Coulomb rate-and-state models that couple static stress-change estimates with continuum mechanics expressed by the rate-and-state friction laws. Our model parameterization supports a gradually increasing complexity; we start from a preliminary model implementation with simplified slip distributions and spatially homogeneous receiver faults to reach an enhanced one featuring optimized fault constitutive parameters, finite-fault slip models, secondary triggering effects, and spatially heterogenous planes informed by pre-existing ruptures. The data-rich environment of southern California allows us to test whether incorporating data collected in near-real time during an unfolding earthquake sequence boosts our predictive power. We assess the absolute and relative performance of the forecasts by means of statistical tests used within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and compare their skills against a standard benchmark epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for the short (24 hr after the two Ridgecrest mainshocks) and intermediate terms (one month). Stress-based forecasts expect heightened rates along the whole near-fault region and increased expected seismicity rates in central Garlock fault. Our comparative model evaluation not only supports that faulting heterogeneities coupled with secondary triggering effects are the most critical success components behind physics-based forecasts, but also underlines the importance of model updates incorporating near-real-time available aftershock data reaching better performance than standard ETAS. We explore the physical basis behind our results by investigating the localized shut down of pre-existing normal faults in the Ridgecrest near-source area.

Description: Coseismic stress changes have been the primary physical principle used to explain aftershocks and triggered earthquakes. However, this method does not adequately forecast earthquake rates and diverse rupture populations when subjected to formal testing. We show that earthquake forecasts can be impaired by assumptions made in physics-based models such as the existence of hypothetical optimal faults and regional scale invariability of the stress field. We compare calculations made under these assumptions along with different realizations of a new conceptual triggering model that features a complete assay of all possible ruptures. In this concept, there always exists a set of theoretical planes that has positive failure stress conditions under a combination of background and coseismic static stress change. In the Earth, all of these theoretical planes may not exist, and if they do, they may not be ready to fail. Thus, the actual aftershock plane may not correspond to the plane with the maximum stress change value. This is consistent with observations that mainshocks commonly activate faults with exotic orientations and rakes. Our testing ground is the M 7.2, 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake sequence that activated multiple diverse fault populations across the United States–Mexico border in California and Baja California. We carry out a retrospective test involving 748 M≥3.0 triggered earthquakes that occurred during a 3 yr period after the mainshock. We find that a probabilistic expression of possible aftershock planes constrained by premainshock rupture patterns is strongly favored (89% of aftershocks consistent with static stress triggering) versus an optimal fault implementation (35% consistent). Results show that coseismic stress change magnitudes do not necessarily control earthquake triggering, instead we find that the summed background stress and coseismic stress change promotes diverse ruptures. Our model can thus explain earthquake triggering in regions where optimal plane mapping shows coseismic stress reduction.

Description: The development of robust forecasts of human-induced seismicity is highly desirable to mitigate the effects of disturbing or damaging earthquakes. We assess the performance of a well-established statistical model, the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, with a catalog of ∼93,000 microearthquakes observed at the Preston New Road (PNR, United Kingdom) unconventional shale gas site during, and after hydraulic fracturing of the PNR-1z and PNR-2 wells. Because ETAS was developed for slower loading rate tectonic seismicity, to account for seismicity caused by pressurized fluid, we also generate three modified ETAS with background rates proportional to injection rates. We find that (1) the standard ETAS captures low seismicity between and after injections but is outperformed by the modified model during high-seismicity periods, and (2) the injection-rate driven ETAS substantially improves when the forecast is calibrated on sleeve-specific pumping data. We finally forecast out-of-sample the PNR-2 seismicity using the average response to injection observed at PNR-1z, achieving better predictive skills than the in-sample standard ETAS. The insights from this study contribute toward producing informative seismicity forecasts for real-time decision making and risk mitigation techniques during unconventional shale gas development.

Description: The 2016–17 central Italy earthquake sequence began with the first mainshock near the town of Amatrice on August 24 (MW 6.0), and was followed by two subsequent large events near Visso on October 26 (MW 5.9) and Norcia on October 30 (MW 6.5), plus a cluster of 4 events with MW 〉 5.0 within few hours on January 18, 2017. The affected area had been monitored before the sequence started by the permanent Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC), and was enhanced during the sequence by temporary stations deployed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and the British Geological Survey. By the middle of September, there was a dense network of 155 stations, with a mean separation in the epicentral area of 6–10 km, comparable to the most likely earthquake depth range in the region. This network configuration was kept stable for an entire year, producing 2.5 TB of continuous waveform recordings. Here we describe how this data was used to develop a large and comprehensive earthquake catalogue using the Complete Automatic Seismic Processor (CASP) procedure. This procedure detected more than 450,000 events in the year following the first mainshock, and determined their phase arrival times through an advanced picker engine (RSNI-Picker2), producing a set of about 7 million P- and 10 million S-wave arrival times. These were then used to locate the events using a non-linear location (NLL) algorithm, a 1D velocity model calibrated for the area, and station corrections and then to compute their local magnitudes (ML). The procedure was validated by comparison of the derived data for phase picks and earthquake parameters with a handpicked reference catalogue (hereinafter referred to as ‘RefCat’). The automated procedure takes less than 12 hours on an Intel Core-i7 workstation to analyse the primary waveform data and to detect and locate 3000 events on the most seismically active day of the sequence. This proves the concept that the CASP algorithm can provide effectively real-time data for input into daily operational earthquake forecasts, The results show that there have been significant improvements compared to RefCat obtained in the same period using manual phase picks. The number of detected and located events is higher (from 84,401 to 450,000), the magnitude of completeness is lower (from ML 1.4 to 0.6), and also the number of phase picks is greater with an average number of 72 picked arrival for a ML = 1.4 compared with 30 phases for RefCat using manual phase picking. These propagate into formal uncertainties of ± 0.9km in epicentral location and ± 1.5km in depth for the enhanced catalogue for the vast majority of the events. Together, these provide a significant improvement in the resolution of fine structures such as local planar structures and clusters, in particular the identification of shallow events occurring in parts of the crust previously thought to be inactive. The lower completeness magnitude provides a rich data set for development and testing of analysis techniques of seismic sequences evolution, including real-time, operational monitoring of b-value, time-dependent hazard evaluation and aftershock forecasting.

Description: Published

Description: 555–571

Description: 3T. Fisica dei terremoti e Sorgente Sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: At 01:36 UTC (03:36 local time) on August 24th 2016, an earthquake Mw 6.0 struck an extensive sector of the central Apennines (coordinates: latitude 42.70° N, longitude 13.23° E, 8.0 km depth). The earthquake caused about 300 casualties and severe damage to the historical buildings and economic activity in an area located near the borders of the Umbria, Lazio, Abruzzo and Marche regions. The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) located in few minutes the hypocenter near Accumoli, a small town in the province of Rieti. In the hours after the quake, dozens of events were recorded by the National Seismic Network (Rete Sismica Nazionale, RSN) of the INGV, many of which had a ML 〉 3.0. The density and coverage of the RSN in the epicentral area meant the epicenter and magnitude of the main event and subsequent shocks that followed it in the early hours of the seismic sequence were well constrained. However, in order to better constrain the localizations of the aftershock hypocenters, especially the depths, a denser seismic monitoring network was needed. Just after the mainshock, SISMIKO, the coordinating body of the emergency seismic network at INGV, was activated in order to install a temporary seismic network integrated with the existing permanent network in the epicentral area. From August the 24th to the 30th, SISMIKO deployed eighteen seismic stations, generally six components (equipped with both velocimeter and accelerometer), with thirteen of the seismic station transmitting in real-time to the INGV seismic monitoring room in Rome. The design and geometry of the temporary network was decided in consolation with other groups who were deploying seismic stations in the region, namely EMERSITO (a group studying site-effects), and the emergency Italian strong motion network (RAN) managed by the National Civil Protection Department (DPC). Further 25 BB temporary seismic stations were deployed by colleagues of the British Geological Survey (BGS) and the School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh in collaboration with INGV. All data acquired from SISMIKO stations, are quickly available at the European Integrated Data Archive (EIDA). The data acquired by the SISMIKO stations were included in the preliminary analysis that was performed by the Bollettino Sismico Italiano (BSI), the Centro Nazionale Terremoti (CNT) staff working in Ancona, and the INGV-MI, described below.

Description: Published

Description: 2T. Sorgente Sismica

Description: JCR Journal