ALBERT

Description: Ocean eddies play a critical role in climate and marine life. In the rapidly warming Arctic, little is known about how ocean eddy activity will change because existing climate models cannot resolve Arctic Ocean mesoscale eddies. Here, by employing a next-generation global sea ice–ocean model with kilometre-scale horizontal resolution in the Arctic, we find a surge of eddy kinetic energy in the upper Arctic Ocean, tripling on average in a four-degree-warmer world. The driving mechanism behind this surge is an increase in eddy generation due to enhanced baroclinic instability. Despite the decline of sea ice, eddy killing (a process in which eddies are dampened by sea ice and winds) will not weaken in its annual mean effect in the considered warming scenario. Our study suggests the importance of adequately representing Arctic eddy activity in climate models for understanding the impacts of its increase on climate and ecosystems.

Description: This study presents a new robust statistical framework, in which to measure relative differences, or deviations from a hypothetical reference value, of Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Moreover, it applies this method to recent seismicity in Italy, to find possible changes of earthquake magnitude distribution in time and space. The method uses bootstrap techniques, which have no prior assumptions about the distribution of data, keeping their basic features. Excluding Central Italy, no significative b-value variation is found, revealing that the frequency-magnitude distribution exponent is substantially stable or that data are not able to reveal hidden variations. Considering the small size of examined magnitude samples, we cannot definitively decide if the higher b-values in Central Italy, consistently founded by all applied tests, have a physical origin or result from a statistical bias. In any case, they indicate short-lived excursions which have a temporary nature and, therefore, cannot be associated solely to spatial variations in tectonic framework. Both the methodological issues and the results of the application to seismicity in Italy show that a correct assessing of b-value changes requests appropriate statistics, that accurately quantify the low accuracy and precision of b-value estimation for small magnitude samples.

Description: Published

Description: 729–740

Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.

Description: We present the results from a fully unconstrained moment tensor inversion of induced seismic events in a complex and high seismic hazard region (Val d’Agri basin, Southern Italy). The study area hosts two well-documented cases of induced microseismicity linked to (i) a wastewater injection well of a giant oilfield (the largest in onshore Europe), and (ii) severe seasonal level changes of an artificial lake. In order to gather information on the non-doublecouple components of the source and to better understand the rupture mechanisms, we analyse seismic events recorded during daily injection tests in the disposal well. The computed moment tensors have significant non-double-couple components that correlate with the well-head injection pressure. The injection parameters strongly influence the rupture mechanism that can be interpreted as due to the opening/closing of a fracture network inside a fault zone of a pre-existing thrust fault. For the case of the reservoir-induced seismicity, no direct correlations are observed with the loading/unloading of the reservoir.

Description: Published

Description: 1617–1627

Description: OST3 Vicino alla faglia

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Among the photosynthetically active dinophytes, the Kryptoperidiniaceae are unique in having a diatom as endosymbiont instead of the widely present peridinin chloroplast. Phylogenetically, it is unresolved at present how the endosymbionts are inherited, and the taxonomic identities of two iconic dinophyte names, Kryptoperidinium foliaceum and Kryptoperidinium triquetrum, are also unclear. Multiple strains were newly established from the type locality in the German Baltic Sea off Wismar and inspected using microscopy as well as molecular sequence diagnostics of both host and endosymbiont. All strains were bi-nucleate, shared the same plate formula (i.e., po, X, 4′, 2a, 7′′, 5c, 7s, 5′′′, 2′′′′) and exhibited a narrow and characteristically L-shaped precingular plate 7′′. Within the molecular phylogeny of Bacillariaceae, endosymbionts were scattered over the tree in a highly polyphyletic pattern, even if they were gained from different strains of a single species, namely K. triquetrum. Notably, endosymbionts from the Baltic Sea show molecular sequences distinct from the Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, which is the first report of such a spatial fragmentation in a planktonic species of dinophytes. The two names K. foliaceum and K. triquetrum are taxonomically clarified by epitypification, with K. triquetrum having priority over its synonym K. foliaceum. Our study underlines the need of stable taxonomy for central questions in evolutionary biology.

Description: Enhancing ocean productivity by artificial upwelling is evaluated as a nature-based solution for food security and climate change mitigation. Fish production is intended through diatom-based plankton food webs as these are assumed to be short and efficient. However, our findings from mesocosm experiments on artificial upwelling in the oligotrophic ocean disagree with this classical food web model. Here, diatoms did not reduce trophic length and instead impaired the transfer of primary production to crustacean grazers and small pelagic fish. The diatom-driven decrease in trophic efficiency was likely mediated by changes in nutritional value for the copepod grazers. Whilst diatoms benefitted the availability of essential fatty acids, they also caused unfavorable elemental compositions via high carbon-to-nitrogen ratios (i.e. low protein content) to which the grazers were unable to adapt. This nutritional imbalance for grazers was most pronounced in systems optimized for CO2 uptake through carbon-to-nitrogen ratios well beyond Redfield. A simultaneous enhancement of fisheries production and carbon sequestration via artificial upwelling may thus be difficult to achieve given their opposing stoichiometric constraints. Our study suggest that food quality can be more critical than quantity to maximize food web productivity during shorter-term fertilization of the oligotrophic ocean.

Description: The Arctic Ocean is experiencing unprecedented changes because of climate warming, necessitating detailed analyses on the ecology and dynamics of biological communities to understand current and future ecosystem shifts. Here, we generated a four-year, high-resolution amplicon dataset along with one annual cycle of PacBio HiFi read metagenomes from the East Greenland Current (EGC), and combined this with datasets spanning different spatiotemporal scales (Tara Arctic and MOSAiC) to assess the impact of Atlantic water influx and sea-ice cover on bacterial communities in the Arctic Ocean. Densely ice-covered polar waters harboured a temporally stable, resident microbiome. Atlantic water influx and reduced sea-ice cover resulted in the dominance of seasonally fluctuating populations, resembling a process of “replacement” through advection, mixing and environmental sorting. We identified bacterial signature populations of distinct environmental regimes, including polar night and high-ice cover, and assessed their ecological roles. Dynamics of signature populations were consistent across the wider Arctic; e.g. those associated with dense ice cover and winter in the EGC were abundant in the central Arctic Ocean in winter. Population- and community-level analyses revealed metabolic distinctions between bacteria affiliated with Arctic and Atlantic conditions; the former with increased potential to use bacterial- and terrestrial-derived substrates or inorganic compounds. Our evidence on bacterial dynamics over spatiotemporal scales provides novel insights into Arctic ecology and indicates a progressing Biological Atlantification of the warming Arctic Ocean, with consequences for food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

Description: Interest in deep-sea mining for polymetallic nodules as an alternative source to onshore mines for various high-technology metals has risen in recent years, as demands and costs have increased. The need for studies to assess its short- and long-term consequences on polymetallic nodule ecosystems is therefore also increasingly prescient. Recent image-based expedition studies have described the temporal impacts on epi-/megafauna seafloor communities across these ecosystems at particular points in time. However, these studies have failed to capture information on large infauna within the sediments or give information on potential transient and temporally limited users of these areas, such as mobile surface deposit feeders or fauna responding to bloom events or food fall depositions. This study uses data from the Peru Basin polymetallic nodule province, where the seafloor was previously disturbed with a plough harrow in 1989 and with an epibenthic sled (EBS) in 2015, to simulate two contrasting possible impact forms of mining disturbance. To try and address the shortfall on information on transient epifauna and infauna use of these various disturbed and undisturbed areas of nodule-rich seafloor, images collected 6 months after the 2015 disturbance event were inspected and all Lebensspuren, ‘traces of life’, were characterized by type (epi- or infauna tracemakers, as well as forming fauna species where possible), along with whether they occurred on undisturbed seafloor or regions disturbed in 1989 or 2015. The results show that epi- and endobenthic Lebensspuren were at least 50% less abundant across both the ploughed and EBS disturbed seafloors. This indicates that even 26 years after disturbance, sediment use by fauna may remain depressed across these areas.

Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.

Description: Estimation of local seismic response plays a key role in assessing local seismic hazard and particularly in the design of shaking scenarios. Modelling local seismic response involves knowing of the shear wave velocity (Vs) and quality factor (Qs) profiles for the site in question. The many techniques that have been developed to assess Vs in surface deposits produce reliable measurements of Vs , but these rarely correspond to direct measurements of Qs . The latter is often considered through damping measures from laboratory tests on small-scale soil samples, which can provide information primarily on intrinsic attenuation, neglecting the contribution of scattering effects. In this paper, using seismic recordings obtained at the surface and in boreholes at 100 m depth, we estimate an average value of Qs of some characteristic alluvial deposits of the Po Plain (northern Italy). Data come from a microseismic network which sampled an almost uniform lithology in the central Po Plain and consisted of three surface and four borehole stations with an interstation distance of about 2 km. The average value of Qs of the shallowest 100 m of the sedimentary strata, Qs100, is estimated by considering: (1) the high-frequency attenuation of seismic waves due to propagation through the corresponding stratigraphy and (2) the interference between incident and surface-reflected waves observed at borehole stations. We parametrize the first through k0_100, the difference between the values of the spectral decay parameter kappa (k) estimated at the surface and at the boreholes depth, respectively. We use the second in order to compute Vs100, the time-averaged Vs referred to the uppermost 100 m stratigraphy. We obtain: k0_100 = (11 ± 3) ms, Vs100 = (309 ± 11) m s −1 and Qs100 = 31 ± 10. At the surface, the estimated values of the site-specific kappa, k0, are found to range from 75 to 79 ms. As expected, these results are in good agreement with studies performed in other sites characterized by sandy or clayey lithologies, and can be usefully used in site response analysis at sites where the rigidity is mainly controlled by lithostatic pressure.

Description: Comune di Minerbio (grant: “Sperimentazione ILG Minerbio”; grant number: 0913.010).

Description: Published

Description: 2075–2094

Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Understanding the genetic structure of populations and the processes responsible for its spatial and temporal dynamics is vital for assessing species’ adaptability and survival in changing environments. We investigate the genetic fingerprinting of blooming populations of the marine diatom Pseudo-nitzschia multistriata in the Gulf of Naples (Mediterranean Sea) from 2008 to 2020. Strains were genotyped using microsatellite fingerprinting and natural samples were also analysed with Microsatellite Pool-seq Barcoding based on Illumina sequencing of microsatellite loci. Both approaches revealed a clonal expansion event in 2013 and a more stable genetic structure during 2017–2020 compared to previous years. The identification of a mating type (MT) determination gene allowed to assign MT to strains isolated over the years. MTs were generally at equilibrium with two notable exceptions, including the clonal bloom of 2013. The populations exhibited linkage equilibrium in most blooms, indicating that sexual reproduction leads to genetic homogenization. Our findings show that P. multistriata blooms exhibit a dynamic genetic and demographic composition over time, most probably determined by deeper-layer cell inocula. Occasional clonal expansions and MT imbalances can potentially affect the persistence and ecological success of planktonic diatoms.

Description: Climate change is opening the Arctic Ocean to increasing human impact and ecosystem changes. Arctic fjords, the region’s most productive ecosystems, are sustained by a diverse microbial community at the base of the food web. Here we show that Arctic fjords become more prokaryotic in the picoplankton (0.2–3 µm) with increasing water temperatures. Across 21 fjords, we found that Arctic fjords had proportionally more trophically diverse (autotrophic, mixotrophic, and heterotrophic) picoeukaryotes, while subarctic and temperate fjords had relatively more diverse prokaryotic trophic groups. Modeled oceanographic connectivity between fjords suggested that transport alone would create a smooth gradient in beta diversity largely following the North Atlantic Current and East Greenland Current. Deviations from this suggested that picoeukaryotes had some strong regional patterns in beta diversity that reduced the effect of oceanographic connectivity, while prokaryotes were mainly stopped in their dispersal if strong temperature differences between sites were present. Fjords located in high Arctic regions also generally had very low prokaryotic alpha diversity. Ultimately, warming of Arctic fjords could induce a fundamental shift from more trophic diverse eukaryotic- to prokaryotic-dominated communities, with profound implications for Arctic ecosystem dynamics including their productivity patterns.

Description: The Northeast Greenland shelf (NEGS) is a recipient of Polar Water (PW) from the Arctic Ocean, Greenland Ice Sheet melt, and Atlantic Water (AW). Here, we compile hydrographical measurements to quantify long-term changes in fjords and coastal waters. We find a profound change in the vertical distribution of water masses, with AW shoaling 〉60 m and PW thinning 〉50 m since early 2000’s. The properties of these waters have also changed. AW is now 1 °C warmer and the salinity of surface waters and PW are 1.8 and 0.68 lower, respectively. The AW changes have substantially weakened stratification south of ~74°N, indicating increased accessibility of heat and potentially nutrients associated with AW. The Atlantification earlier reported for the eastern Fram Strait and Barents Sea region has also propagated to the NEGS. The increased presence of AW, is an important driver for regional change leading to a likely shift in ecosystem structure and function.

Description: The development of algorithms for remote sensing of water quality (RSWQ) requires a large amount of in situ data to account for the bio-geo-optical diversity of inland and coastal waters. The GLObal Reflectance community dataset for Imaging and optical sensing of Aquatic environments (GLORIA) includes 7,572 curated hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance measurements at 1 nm intervals within the 350 to 900 nm wavelength range. In addition, at least one co-located water quality measurement of chlorophyll a, total suspended solids, absorption by dissolved substances, and Secchi depth, is provided. The data were contributed by researchers affiliated with 59 institutions worldwide and come from 450 different water bodies, making GLORIA the de-facto state of knowledge of in situ coastal and inland aquatic optical diversity. Each measurement is documented with comprehensive methodological details, allowing users to evaluate fitness-for-purpose, and providing a reference for practitioners planning similar measurements. We provide open and free access to this dataset with the goal of enabling scientific and technological advancement towards operational regional and global RSWQ monitoring.

Description: An author of the paper was omitted in the original version (Ted Conroy, University of Waikato, New Zealand). This has been corrected in the pdf and HTML versions of the paper, and the associated metadata.

Description: Lightweight structures are widely used across different industry sectors. However, they get easily excited by external influences, such as vibrations. Undesired high vibration amplitudes can be avoided by shifting the structural eigenfrequencies, which can be achieved adapting the structural design considering optimisation procedures and structures primarily inspired by diatoms. This procedures has been applied to the development process of a girder structure installed in a synchrotron radiation facility to support heavy magnets and other components. The objective was to design a 2.9 m long girder structure with high eigenfrequencies, a high stiffness and a low mass. Based on a topology optimisation result, a parametric beam–shell model including biologically inspired structures (e.g., Voronoi combs, ribs, and soft and organic-looking transitions) was built up. The subsequent cross-sectional optimisation using evolutionary strategic optimisation revealed an optimum girder structure, which was successfully manufactured using the casting technology. Eigenfrequency measurements validated the numerical models. Future changes in the specifications can be implemented in the bio-inspired development process to obtain adapted girder structures.

Description: We studied the potential of a recently introduced species, the Asian brush-clawed crab (Hemigrapsus takanoi), to expand its distribution range further into the Baltic Sea. H. takanoi has been documented in the southwestern Baltic Sea since 2014. The ability to persist and further expand into the Baltic Proper will depend on their potential to sustain all stages of their complex life cycle, including pelagic larvae, under the Baltic Sea's conditions. Range limits may be established by the tolerance to low salinity, which in addition may be affected by water temperature. A key question is whether local populations at the distribution limit (within the Baltic Sea) show increased tolerance to low salinities and hence promote further expansion. We quantified the combined effects of salinity (10–33 PSU) and temperature (15–24 °C) on larval development in four populations of H. takanoi (two from the Baltic and two from the North Sea). We found substantial differences in larval performance between the populations from the Baltic and North Seas. Larvae from the North Sea populations always showed higher survival and faster development compared with those from the Baltic Sea. Only weak evidence of elevated tolerance towards low salinity was found in the larvae from the Baltic Sea populations. In addition, larvae from the population located near the range limit showed very low survival under all tested salinity-temperature combinations and no evidence of increased tolerance to low salinity. There was no apparent genetic differentiation among the studied populations in the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit one gene (COI) implying high connectivity among the populations. In conclusion, the weak evidence of low salinity tolerance in Baltic Sea populations, and poor larval performance for the population located near the range limit, coupled with limited genetic differentiation suggest that subsidies are needed for populations to persist near the range limit. Alternatively, ontogenetic migrations would be required to sustain those populations. Monitoring efforts are needed to elucidate the underlaying mechanisms and document potential future range expansions.

Description: The information system PANGAEA provides targeted support for research data management as well as long-term data archiving and publication. PANGAEA is operated as an open access library for archiving, publishing, and distributing georeferenced data from earth and environmental sciences. It focuses on observational and experimental data. Citability, comprehensive metadata descriptions, interoperability of data and metadata, a high degree of structural and semantic harmonization of the data inventory as well as the commitment of the hosting institutions ensures the long-term usability of archived data. PANGAEA is a pioneer of FAIR and open data infrastructures to enable data intensive science and an integral component of national and international science and technology activities. This paper provides an overview of the recent organisational, structural, and technological advancements in developing and operating the information system.

Description: Diversity and its drivers and consequences are at the heart of ecological research. Mostly, studies have focused on different species, but if the causes for increases or decreases in diversity are general, the observed patterns should also be observable within genotypes. As previous research shows that there is higher variability in nitrogen to phosphorus ratios (N/P) between slow-growing unicellular algal populations, compared to fast-growing ones, we expected to observe similar patterns within genetically identical strains growing at different rates. We tested this hypothesis in a laboratory experiment performed with a monoculture of the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum. Using a growth rate gradient obtained with 10 chemostats, we were able to determine the effect of growth rate on the diatom’s elemental stoichiometry as well as on selected traits, such as cell size and shape. Our results showed indeed less intercellular variability (in the selected traits assessed on single-cell level) in the faster-growing populations, which was accompanied by a downward trend in bulk N/P ratios. We pose that this higher variability at lower growth rates potentially results in higher variability of the food sources available for higher trophic levels with potential consequences for the transfer efficiency of energy and matter in marine food webs.

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉The Digital Earth project aimed for the integration of data science and Earth science. Here, we reflect on the main lessons learned that include the need for interdisciplinary collaboration, thinking out of the box, the concept of ‘thinking in workflows’ and models for the sustainable implementation of scientific software, data infrastructure and policies.〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉Data-driven science has turned into a fourth fundamental paradigm of performing research. Earth System Science, following a holistic approach in unraveling the complex network of processes and interactions shaping system Earth, particularly profits from embracing data-driven approaches next to observation and modeling. At the end, increasing digitalization of Earth sciences will lead to cultural transformation towards a Digital Earth Culture.〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉Digital Earth is a project funded by the German Helmholtz Association with all centers of the research field Earth and Environment involved. The main goal of the Digital Earth project is to develop and bundle data science methods in extendable and maintainable scientific workflows that enable natural scientists in collaboration with data scientists to achieve a deeper understanding of the Earth system. This has been achieved by developing solutions for data analysis and exploration with visual and computational approaches with data obtained in a SMART monitoring approach and modeling studies, accompanied by a continuous evaluation of the collaboration processes. In this chapter, the history, setup, and focus of the Digital Earth project are described.〈/jats:p〉

Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.

Description: In a recent work, we applied the every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS) probabilistic model to the pseudo-prospective forecasting of shallow earthquakes with magni- tude M 5.0 in the Italian region. We compared the forecasting performance of EEPAS with that of the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) forecasting model, using the most recent consistency tests developed within the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictabil- ity (CSEP). The application of such models for the forecasting of Italian target earthquakes seems to show peculiar characteristics for each of them. In particular, the ETAS model showed higher performance for short-term forecasting, in contrast, the EEPAS model showed higher forecasting performance for the medium/long-term. In this work, we compare the performance of EEPAS and ETAS models with that obtained by a deterministic model based on the occur- rence of strong foreshocks (FORE model) using an alarm-based approach. We apply the two rate-based models (ETAS and EEPAS) estimating the best probability threshold above which we issue an alarm. The model parameters and probability thresholds for issuing the alarms are calibrated on a learning data set from 1990 to 2011 during which 27 target earthquakes have occurred within the analysis region. The pseudo-prospective forecasting performance is as- sessed on a validation data set from 2012 to 2021, which also comprises 27 target earthquakes. Tests to assess the forecasting capability demonstrate that, even if all models outperform a purely random method, which trivially forecast earthquake proportionally to the space–time occupied by alarms, the EEPAS model exhibits lower forecasting performance than ETAS and FORE models. In addition, the relative performance comparison of the three models demonstrates that the forecasting capability of the FORE model appears slightly better than ETAS, but the difference is not statistically significant as it remains within the uncertainty level. However, truly prospective tests are necessary to validate such results, ideally using new testing procedures allowing the analysis of alarm-based models, not yet available within the CSEP.

Description: Published

Description: 1541–1551

Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: To understand the seismic hazard of a subduction zone, it is necessary to know the geometry, location and mechanical characteristics of the interplate boundary below which an oceanic plate is thrust downward. By considering the azimuthal dependence of converted P-to-S (Ps) amplitudes in receiver functions, we have detected the interplate boundary in the Makran subduction zone, revealing significant seismic anisotropy at the base of the accretionary wedge above the slab before it bends down beneath the Jaz Murian basin. This anisotropic feature aligns with a zone of reduced seismic velocity and a high primary/secondary wave velocity ratio (Vp/Vs), as documented in previous studies. The presence of this low-velocity highly anisotropic layer at the base of the accretionary wedge, likely representing a low-strength shear zone, could possibly explain the unusually wide accretionary wedge in Makran. Additionally, it may impact the location and width of the locked zone along the interplate boundary.

Description: Iranian National Science Foundation (INSF)

Description: Published

Description: 64-74

Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.

Description: The Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) forecasting model is a space– time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (ψ ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has been previously applied to New Zealand, Cal- ifornia and Japan earthquakes with target magnitude thresholds varying from about 5–7. In all previous application, computations were done using the computer code implemented in Fortran language by the model authors. In this work, we applied it to Italy using a suite of computing codes completely rewritten in Matlab. We first compared the two software codes to ensure the convergence and adequate coincidence between the estimated model parameters for a simple region capable of being analysed by both software codes. Then, using the rewritten codes, we optimized the parameters for a different and more complex polygon of analysis using the Homogenized Instrumental Seismic Catalogue data from 1990 to 2011. We then perform a pseudo-prospective forecasting experiment of Italian earthquakes from 2012 to 2021 with Mw ≥ 5.0 and compare the forecasting skill of EEPAS with those obtained by other time in- dependent (Spatially Uniform Poisson, Spatially Variable Poisson and PPE: Proximity to Past Earthquakes) and time dependent [Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)] forecasting models using the information gain per active cell. The preference goes to the ETAS model for short time intervals (3 months) and to the EEPAS model for longer time intervals (6 months to 10 yr).

Description: Published

Description: 1681–1700

Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Animal behavior in space and time is structured by the perceived day/night cycle. However, this is modified by the animals’ own movement within its habitat, creating a realized diel light niche (RDLN). To understand the RDLN, we investigated the light as experienced by zooplankton undergoing synchronized diel vertical migration (DVM) in an Arctic fjord around the spring equinox. We reveal a highly dampened light cycle with diel changes being about two orders of magnitude smaller compared to the surface or a static depth. The RDLN is further characterized by unique wavelength-specific irradiance cycles. We discuss the relevance of RDLNs for animal adaptations and interactions, as well as implications for circadian clock entrainment in the wild and laboratory.

Description: The moon’s monthly cycle synchronizes reproduction in countless marine organisms. The mass-spawning bristle worm Platynereis dumerilii uses an endogenous monthly oscillator set by full moon to phase reproduction to specific days. But how do organisms recognize specific moon phases? We uncover that the light receptor L-Cryptochrome (L-Cry) discriminates between different moonlight durations, as well as between sun- and moonlight. A biochemical characterization of purified L-Cry protein, exposed to naturalistic sun- or moonlight, reveals the formation of distinct sun- and moonlight states characterized by different photoreduction- and recovery kinetics of L-Cry’s cofactor Flavin Adenine Dinucleotide. In Platynereis, L-Cry’s sun- versus moonlight states correlate with distinct subcellular localizations, indicating different signaling. In contrast, r-Opsin1, the most abundant ocular opsin, is not required for monthly oscillator entrainment. Our work reveals a photo-ecological concept for natural light interpretation involving a “valence interpreter” that provides entraining photoreceptor(s) with light source and moon phase information.

Description: The right timing of animal physiology and behaviour ensures the stability of populations and ecosystems. To predict anthropogenic impacts on these timings, more insight is needed into the interplay between environment and molecular timing mechanisms. This is particularly true in marine environments. Using high-resolution, long-term daylight measurements from a habitat of the marine annelid Platynereis dumerilii, we found that temporal changes in ultraviolet A (UVA)/deep violet intensities, more than longer wavelengths, can provide annual time information, which differs from annual changes in the photoperiod. We developed experimental set-ups that resemble natural daylight illumination conditions, and automated, quantifiable behavioural tracking. Experimental reduction of UVA/deep violet light (approximately 370–430 nm) under a long photoperiod (16 h light and 8 h dark) significantly decreased locomotor activities, comparable to the decrease caused by a short photoperiod (8 h light and 16 h dark). In contrast, altering UVA/deep violet light intensities did not cause differences in locomotor levels under a short photoperiod. This modulation of locomotion by UVA/deep violet light under a long photoperiod requires c-opsin1, a UVA/deep violet sensor employing Gi signalling. C-opsin1 also regulates the levels of rate-limiting enzymes for monogenic amine synthesis and of several neurohormones, including pigment-dispersing factor, vasotocin (vasopressin/oxytocin) and neuropeptide Y. Our analyses indicate a complex inteplay between UVA/deep violet light intensities and photoperiod as indicators of annual time.

Description: The Southern Ocean is a major region of ocean carbon uptake, but its future changes remain uncertain under climate change. Here we show the projected shift in the Southern Ocean CO2 sink using a suite of Earth System Models, revealing changes in the mechanism, position and seasonality of the carbon uptake. The region of dominant CO2 uptake shifts from the Subtropical to the Antarctic region under the high-emission scenario. The warming-driven sea-ice melt, increased ocean stratification, mixed layer shoaling, and a weaker vertical carbon gradient is projected to together reduce the winter de-gassing in the future, which will trigger the switch from mixing-driven outgassing to solubility-driven uptake in the Antarctic region during the winter season. The future Southern Ocean carbon sink will be poleward-shifted, operating in a hybrid mode between biologically-driven summertime and solubility-driven wintertime uptake with further amplification of biologically-driven uptake due to the increasing Revelle Factor.

Description: In Central Yakutia (Siberia) livelihoods of local communities depend on alaas (thermokarst depression) landscapes and the lakes within. Development and dynamics of these alaas lakes are closely connected to climate change, permafrost thawing, catchment conditions, and land use. To reconstruct lake development throughout the Holocene we analyze sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) and biogeochemistry from a sediment core from Lake Satagay, spanning the last c. 10,800 calibrated years before present (cal yrs BP). SedaDNA of diatoms and macrophytes and microfossil diatom analysis reveal lake formation earlier than 10,700 cal yrs BP. The sedaDNA approach detected 42 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) of diatom taxa, one ASV of Eustigmatophyceae (Nannochloropsis), and 12 ASVs of macrophytes. We relate diatom and macrophyte community changes to climate-driven shifts in water level and mineral and organic input, which result in variable water conductivity, in-lake productivity, and sediment deposition. We detect a higher lake level and water conductivity in the Early Holocene (c. 10,700–7000 cal yrs BP) compared to other periods, supported by the dominance of Stephanodiscus sp. and Stuckenia pectinata. Further climate warming towards the Mid-Holocene (7000–4700 cal yrs BP) led to a shallowing of Lake Satagay, an increase of the submerged macrophyte Ceratophyllum, and a decline of planktonic diatoms. In the Late Holocene (c. 4700 cal yrs BP–present) stable shallow water conditions are confirmed by small fragilarioid and staurosiroid diatoms dominating the lake. Lake Satagay has not yet reached the final stage of alaas development, but satellite imagery shows an intensification of anthropogenic land use, which in combination with future warming will likely result in a rapid desiccation of the lake.

Description: A detailed study of past eruptive activity is crucial to understanding volcanic systems and associated hazards. We present a meticulous stratigraphic analysis, a comprehensive chronological reconstruction, thorough tephra mapping, and a detailed analysis of the interplay between primary and secondary volcanic processes of the post-900 AD activity of La Fossa caldera, including the two main systems of La Fossa volcano and Vulcanello cones (Vulcano Island, Italy). Our analyses demonstrate how the recent volcanic activity of La Fossa caldera is primarily characterized by effusive and Strombolian activity and Vulcanian eruptions, combined with sporadic sub-Plinian events and both impulsive and long-lasting phreatic explosions, all of which have the capacity to severely impact the entire northern sector of Vulcano island. We document a total of 30 eruptions, 25 from the La Fossa volcano and 5 from Vulcanello cones, consisting of ash to lapilli deposits and fields of ballistic bombs and blocks. Volcanic activity alternated with significant erosional phases and volcaniclastic re-sedimentation. Large-scale secondary erosion processes occur in response to the widespread deposition of fine-grained ash blankets, both onto the active cone of La Fossa and the watersheds conveying their waters into the La Fossa caldera. The continuous increase in ground height above sea level, particularly in the western sector of the caldera depression where key infrastructure is situated, is primarily attributed to long-term alluvial processes. We demonstrate how a specific methodological approach is key to the characterization and hazard assessment of low-to-high intensity volcanic activity, where tephra is emitted over long time periods and is intercalated with phases of erosion and re-sedimentation.

Description: Open access funding provided by Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia within the CRUI-CARE Agreement.

Description: Published

Description: 47

Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Background: Wildfires are recognized as an important ecological component of larch-dominated boreal forests in eastern Siberia. However, long-term fire-vegetation dynamics in this unique environment are poorly understood. Recent paleoecological research suggests that intensifying fire regimes may induce millennial-scale shifts in forest structure and composition. This may, in turn, result in positive feedback on intensifying wildfires and permafrost degradation, apart from threatening human livelihoods. Most common fire-vegetation models do not explicitly include detailed individual-based tree population dynamics, but a focus on patterns of forest structure emerging from interactions among individual trees may provide a beneficial perspective on the impacts of changing fire regimes in eastern Siberia. To simulate these impacts on forest structure at millennial timescales, we apply the individual-based, spatially explicit vegetation model LAVESI-FIRE, expanded with a new fire module. Satellite-based fire observations along with fieldwork data were used to inform the implementation of wildfire occurrence and adjust model parameters. Results: Simulations of annual forest development and wildfire activity at a study site in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) since the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 20,000 years BP) highlight the variable impacts of fire regimes on forest structure throughout time. Modeled annual fire probability and subsequent burned area in the Holocene compare well with a local reconstruction of charcoal influx in lake sediments. Wildfires can be followed by different forest regeneration pathways, depending on fire frequency and intensity and the pre-fire forest conditions. We find that medium-intensity wildfires at fire return intervals of 50 years or more benefit the dominance of fire-resisting Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.), while stand-replacing fires tend to enable the establishment of evergreen conifers. Apart from post-fire mortality, wildfires modulate forest development mainly through competition effects and a reduction of the model’s litter layer. Conclusion: With its fine-scale population dynamics, LAVESI-FIRE can serve as a highly localized, spatially explicit tool to understand the long-term impacts of boreal wildfires on forest structure and to better constrain interpretations of paleoecological reconstructions of fire activity.

Description: How fast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biome tracks strongly warming climates is largely unknown. Regional studies reveal lags between decades and millennia. Here we report a conundrum: Deglacial forest expansion in the NH extra-tropics occurs approximately 4000 years earlier in a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation than shown by pollen-based biome reconstructions. Shortcomings in the model and the reconstructions could both contribute to this mismatch, leaving the underlying causes unresolved. The simulated vegetation responds within decades to simulated climate changes, which agree with pollen-independent reconstructions. Thus, we can exclude climate biases as main driver for differences. Instead, the mismatch points at a multi-millennial disequilibrium of the NH forest biome to the climate signal. Therefore, the evaluation of time-slice simulations in strongly changing climates with pollen records should be critically reassessed. Our results imply that NH forests may be responding much slower to ongoing climate changes than Earth System Models predict.

Description: The Great Lakes region of North America has warmed by 1–2 °C on average since pre-industrial times, with the most pronounced changes observable during winter and spring. Interannual variability in temperatures remains high, however, due to the influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns that modulate the warming trend across years. Variations in spring temperatures determine growing season length and plant phenology, with implications for whole ecosystem function. Studying how both internal climate variability and the “secular” warming trend interact to produce trends in temperature is necessary to estimate potential ecological responses to future warming scenarios. This study examines how external anthropogenic forcing and decadal-scale variability influence spring temperatures across the western Great Lakes region and estimates the sensitivity of regional forests to temperature using long-term growth records from tree-rings and satellite data. Using a modeling approach designed to test for regime shifts in dynamic time series, this work shows that mid-continent spring climatology was strongly influenced by the 1976/1977 phase change in North Pacific atmospheric circulation, and that regional forests show a strengthening response to spring temperatures during the last half-century.

Description: The Last Interglacial (~129,000–116,000 years ago) is the most recent geologic period with a warmer-than-present climate. Proxy-based temperature reconstructions from this interval can help contextualize natural climate variability in our currently warming world, especially if they can define changes on decadal timescales. Here, we established a ~4.800-year-long record of sea surface temperature (SST) variability from the eastern Mediterranean Sea at 1–4-year resolution by applying mass spectrometry imaging of long-chain alkenones to a finely laminated organic-matter-rich sapropel deposited during the Last Interglacial. We observe the highest amplitude of decadal variability in the early stage of sapropel deposition, plausibly due to reduced vertical mixing of the highly stratified water column. With the subsequent reorganization of oceanographic conditions in the later stage of sapropel deposition, when SST forcing resembled the modern situation, we observe that the maximum amplitude of reconstructed decadal variability did not exceed the range of the recent period of warming climate. The more gradual, centennial SST trends reveal that the maximal centennial scale SST increase in our Last Interglacial record is below the projected temperature warming in the twenty-first century.

Description: The cold Last Glacial Maximum, around 20,000 years ago, provides a useful test case for evaluating whether climate models can simulate climate states distinct from the present. However, because of the indirect and uncertain nature of reconstructions of past environmental variables such as sea surface temperature, such evaluation remains ambiguous. Instead, here we evaluate simulations of Last Glacial Maximum climate by relying on the fundamental macroecological principle of decreasing community similarity with increasing thermal distance. Our analysis of planktonic foraminifera species assemblages from 647 sites reveals that the similarity-decay pattern that we obtain when the simulated ice age seawater temperatures are confronted with species assemblages from that time differs from the modern. This inconsistency between the modern temperature dependence of plankton species turnover and the simulations arises because the simulations show globally rather uniform cooling for the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas the species assemblages indicate stronger cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic. The implied steeper thermal gradient in the North Atlantic is more consistent with climate model simulations with a reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our approach demonstrates that macroecology can be used to robustly diagnose simulations of past climate and highlights the challenge of correctly resolving the spatial imprint of global change in climate models.

Description: Sea-level rise submerges terrestrial permafrost in the Arctic, turning it into subsea permafrost. Subsea permafrost underlies ~ 1.8 million km2 of Arctic continental shelf, with thicknesses in places exceeding 700 m. Sea-level variations over glacial-interglacial cycles control subsea permafrost distribution and thickness, yet no permafrost model has accounted for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), which deviates local sea level from the global mean due to changes in ice and ocean loading. Here we incorporate GIA into a pan-Arctic model of subsea permafrost over the last 400,000 years. Including GIA significantly reduces present-day subsea permafrost thickness, chiefly because of hydro-isostatic effects as well as deformation related to Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Additionally, we extend the simulation 1000 years into the future for emissions scenarios outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report. We find that subsea permafrost is preserved under a low emissions scenario but mostly disappears under a high emissions scenario.

Description: Plant environmental DNA extracted from lacustrine sediments (sedimentary DNA, sedDNA) has been increasingly used to investigate past vegetation changes and human impacts at a high taxonomic resolution. However, the representation of vegetation communities surrounding the lake is still unclear. In this study, we compared plant sedDNA metabarcoding and pollen assemblages from 27 lake surface-sediment samples collected from alpine meadow on the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau to investigate the representation of sedDNA data. In general, the identified components of sedDNA are consistent with the counted pollen taxa and local plant communities. Relative to pollen identification, sedDNA data have higher taxonomic resolution, thus providing a potential approach for reconstructing past plant diversity. The sedDNA signal is strongly influenced by local plants while rarely affected by exogenous plants. Because of the overrepresentation of local plants and PCR bias, the abundance of sedDNA sequence types is very variable among sites, and should be treated with caution when investigating past vegetation cover and climate based on sedDNA data. Our finding suggests that sedDNA analysis can be a complementary approach for investigating the presence/absence of past plants and history of human land-use with higher taxonomic resolution.

Description: Black carbon emitted by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass has a net warming effect in the atmosphere and reduces the albedo when deposited on ice and snow; accurate knowledge of past emissions is essential to quantify and model associated global climate forcing. Although bottom-up inventories provide historical Black Carbon emission estimates that are widely used in Earth System Models, they are poorly constrained by observations prior to the late 20th century. Here we use an objective inversion technique based on detailed atmospheric transport and deposition modeling to reconstruct 1850 to 2000 emissions from thirteen Northern Hemisphere ice-core records. We find substantial discrepancies between reconstructed Black Carbon emissions and existing bottom-up inventories which do not fully capture the complex spatial-temporal emission patterns. Our findings imply changes to existing historical Black Carbon radiative forcing estimates are necessary, with potential implications for observation-constrained climate sensitivity.

Description: Sea ice is a key factor for the functioning and services provided by polar marine ecosystems. However, ecosystem responses to sea-ice loss are largely unknown because time-series data are lacking. Here, we use shotgun metagenomics of marine sedimentary ancient DNA off Kamchatka (Western Bering Sea) covering the last ~20,000 years. We traced shifts from a sea ice-adapted late-glacial ecosystem, characterized by diatoms, copepods, and codfish to an ice-free Holocene characterized by cyanobacteria, salmon, and herring. By providing information about marine ecosystem dynamics across a broad taxonomic spectrum, our data show that ancient DNA will be an important new tool in identifying long-term ecosystem responses to climate transitions for improvements of ocean and cryosphere risk assessments. We conclude that continuing sea-ice decline on the northern Bering Sea shelf might impact on carbon export and disrupt benthic food supply and could allow for a northward expansion of salmon and Pacific herring.

Description: The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) plays a crucial role in global ocean circulation by fostering deep-water upwelling and formation of new water masses. On geological timescales, ACC variations are poorly constrained beyond the last glacial. Here, we reconstruct changes in ACC strength in the central Drake Passage in vicinity of the modern Polar Front over a complete glacial-interglacial cycle (i.e., the past 140,000 years), based on sediment grain-size and geochemical characteristics. We found significant glacial-interglacial changes of ACC flow speed, with weakened current strength during glacials and a stronger circulation in interglacials. Superimposed on these orbital-scale changes are high-amplitude millennialscale fluctuations, with ACC strength maxima correlating with diatom-based Antarctic winter sea-ice minima, particularly during full glacial conditions. We infer that the ACC is closely linked to Southern Hemisphere millennial-scale climate oscillations, amplified through Antarctic sea ice extent changes. These strong ACC variations modulated Pacific-Atlantic water exchange via the “cold water route” and potentially affected the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and marine carbon storage.

Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.

Description: We report on about 20 yr of relative gravity measurements, acquired on Mt. Somma–Vesuvius volcano in order to investigate the hydrological and volcano-tectonic processes controlling the present-day activity of the volcano. The retrieved long-term field of time gravity change (2003–2022) shows a pattern essentially related to the subsidence, which have affected the central part of the volcano, as detected by the permanent GNSS network and InSAR data. After reducing the observations for the effect of vertical deformation, no significant residuals are found, indicating no significant mass accumulation or loss within the volcanic system. In the north-western sector of the study area, at the border of the volcano edifice, however, significant residual positive gravity changes are detected which are associated to ground-water rebound after years of intense exploitation of the aquifers. On the seasonal timescale, we find that stations within the caldera rim are affected by the seasonal hydrological effects, while the gravity stations at the base of the Vesuvius show a less clear correlation. Furthermore, within the caldera rim a multiyear gravity transient is detected with an increase phase lasting about 4 yr followed by a slower decrease phase. Analysis of rain data seem to exclude a hydrological origin, hence, we hypothesize a deeper source related to the geothermal activity, which can be present even if the volcano is in a quiescent state. We infer the depth and volume of the source by inverting the spatial pattern of the gravity field at the peak of the transient. A volume of fluids of 9.5 × 107 m3 with density of 1000 kg m−3 at 2.3 km depth is capable to fit reasonably well the observations. To explain the gravity transient, simple synthetic models are produced, that simulate the ascent of fluids from a deep reservoir up to the depth of 2.3 km and a successive diffusion within the carbonate aquifer hosting the geothermal system. The whole process appears to not significantly affect the seismicity rate and the deformation of the volcano. This study demonstrates the importance of a 4-D gravity monitoring of a volcano to understand its complex gravity signals that cover different spatial and temporal scales. Discriminating the different contributions that mix up in the observed gravity changes, in particular those due to hydrologic/anthropogenic activities form those due to the geothermal dynamics, is fundamental for a complete and reliable evaluation of the volcano state.

Description: Published

Description: 1565–1580

Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: In this article the author name Matthew Mazloff was incorrectly written as Matthew Mazloeff. The original article has been corrected.

Description: Correction to: Scientific Data, published online 22 June 2023 The original version showed the wrong image for Figure 3, with the image for Figure 4 used for both. This has been corrected in the pdf and HTML versions of the article, with the correct version of Figure 3 replacing the duplicated figure. The dates in the figure captions were also incorrect and have been amended as follows: Figure 3 caption: “from 2019-10-25 - 2020-07-30” modified to “from 2019-10-25 - 2020-05-15” Figure 4 caption: “from 2020-02-25 - 2020-07-30” modified to “from 2020-06-13 - 2020-07-30”.

Description: Snow plays an essential role in the Arctic as the interface between the sea ice and the atmosphere. Optical properties, thermal conductivity and mass distribution are critical to understanding the complex Arctic sea ice system’s energy balance and mass distribution. By conducting measurements from October 2019 to September 2020 on the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, we have produced a dataset capturing the year-long evolution of the physical properties of the snow and surface scattering layer, a highly porous surface layer on Arctic sea ice that evolves due to preferential melt at the ice grain boundaries. The dataset includes measurements of snow during MOSAiC. Measurements included profiles of depth, density, temperature, snow water equivalent, penetration resistance, stable water isotope, salinity and microcomputer tomography samples. Most snowpit sites were visited and measured weekly to capture the temporal evolution of the physical properties of snow. The compiled dataset includes 576 snowpits and describes snow conditions during the MOSAiC expedition.

Description: Sedimentary DNA-based studies revealed the effects of human activity on lake cyanobacteria communities over the last centuries, yet we continue to lack information over longer timescales. Here, we apply high-resolution molecular analyses on sedimentary ancient DNA to reconstruct the history of cyanobacteria throughout the Holocene in a lake in north-eastern Germany. We find a substantial increase in cyanobacteria abundance coinciding with deforestation during the early Bronze Age around 4000 years ago, suggesting increased nutrient supply to the lake by local communities settling on the lakeshore. The next substantial human-driven increase in cyanobacteria abundance occurred only about a century ago due to intensified agricultural fertilisation which caused the dominance of potentially toxic taxa (e.g., Aphanizomenon). Our study provides evidence that humans began to locally impact lake ecology much earlier than previously assumed. Consequently, managing aquatic systems today requires awareness of the legacy of human influence dating back potentially several millennia.

Description: Climate change is expected to cause major shifts in boreal forests which are in vast areas of Siberia dominated by two species of the deciduous needle tree larch (Larix). The species differ markedly in their ecosystem functions, thus shifts in their respective ranges are of global relevance. However, drivers of species distribution are not well understood, in part because paleoecological data at species level are lacking. This study tracks Larix species distribution in time and space using target enrichment on sedimentary ancient DNA extracts from eight lakes across Siberia. We discovered that Larix sibirica, presently dominating in western Siberia, likely migrated to its northern distribution area only in the Holocene at around 10,000 years before present (ka BP), and had a much wider eastern distribution around 33 ka BP. Samples dated to the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21 ka BP), consistently show genotypes of L. gmelinii. Our results suggest climate as a strong determinant of species distribution in Larix and provide temporal and spatial data for species projection in a changing climate.

Description: Open-conduit basaltic volcanoes can be characterised by sudden large explosive events (paroxysms) that interrupt normal effusive and mild explosive activity. In June-August 2019, one major explosion and two paroxysms occurred at Stromboli volcano (Italy) within only 64 days. Here, via a multifaceted approach using clinopyroxene, we show arrival of mafic recharges up to a few days before the onset of these events and their effects on the eruption pattern at Stromboli, as a prime example of a persistently active, open-conduit basaltic volcano. Our data indicate a rejuvenated Stromboli plumbing system where the extant crystal mush is efficiently permeated by recharge magmas with minimum remobilisation promoting a direct linkage between the deeper and the shallow reservoirs that sustains the currently observed larger variability of eruptive behaviour. Our approach provides vital insights into magma dynamics and their effects on monitoring signals demonstrating the power of petrological studies in interpreting patterns of surficial activity.

Description: Published

Description: 7717

Description: OSV1: Verso la previsione dei fenomeni vulcanici pericolosi

Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The aim of this paper is to investigate, through fnancial-statement analyzes, the economic fnancial performance of Italian hotels, after the international economic crisis, also con sidering the possible macro-regional diferences. The study focuses the fnancial state ments of 5473 hotels from 2009 to 2018. National data are also disaggregated in the three macro-areas that characterize Italy for diferent social and economic aspects. Anova test and Tukey–Kramer test are used. Results show that the crisis afected proftability. Ital ian hotels have a low capitalization, unable to cope with the large structural investments that require signifcant debts. The proftability indicators record similar trends in the three macro-areas, while the fnancial independence index and the coverage index show signif cant diferent values in the three observed areas. Therefore, in the digital era, Italian hotel industry has all the potential to restructure itself. Here fve ratios are considered to observe medium sized hotels. Future research with other variables will be useful, even on smaller hotels, and the analysis of their trends by cohorts of companies is necessary, as well as the integration of quantitative data with qualitative evidence. This paper encourages the cul ture of temporal sector comparison, re-evaluating the potential of accounting information systems, in order to promote data-based growth and development strategies. Furthermore, it contains indications for government ofcials, as well as for countries in the process of developing the hospitality sector following the example of the Italian experience.

Description: Published

Description: 383–407

Description: OSA5: Energia e georisorse

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: Thermobarometry provides a critical means of assessing locations of magma storage and dynamics in the lead-up to volcanic eruptions and crustal growth. A common approach is to utilise minerals that have compositions sensitive to changes in pressure and/or temperature, such as clinopyroxene, which is ubiquitous in mafic to intermediate magmas. However, clinopyroxene thermobarometry may carry significant uncertainty and require an appropriate equilibrium melt composition. In addition, the degree of magma undercooling (ΔT) affects clinopyroxene composition and zoning, with common sector zoning potentially obfuscating thermobarometry results. Here, we use a set of crystallisation experiments on a primitive trachybasalt from Mt. Etna (Italy) at ΔT = 25–233 °C, P = 400–800 MPa, H2O = 0–4 wt % and fO2 = NNO + 2, with clinopyroxene crystals defined by Al-rich zones (prisms and skeletons) and Al-poor zones (hourglass and overgrowths) to assess common equilibrium models and thermobarometric approaches. Under the studied conditions, our data suggest that the commonly applied Fe–Mg exchange (cpx-meltKdFe–Mg) is insensitive to increasing ΔT and may not be a reliable indicator of equilibrium. The combined use of DiHd (CaMgSi2O6 + CaFeSi2O6) and EnFs (Mg2Si2O6 + Fe2Si2O6) models indicate the attainment of equilibrium in both Al-rich and Al-poor zones for almost all investigated ΔT. In contrast, CaTs (CaAl2SiO6) and CaTi (CaTiAl2O6) models reveal substantial deviations from equilibrium with increasing ΔT, particularly in Al-rich zones. We postulate that this reflects slower diffusion of Al and Ti in the melt compared with Ca and Mg and recommend the concurrent application of these four models to evaluate equilibrium between clinopyroxene and melt, particularly for sector-zoned crystals. Thermobarometers calibrated with only isothermal–isobaric experiments closely reproduce experimental P–T at low ΔT, equivalent to natural phenocrysts cores and sector-zoned mantles. Models that also consider decompression experiments are most accurate at high ΔT and are therefore suitable for outermost phenocryst rims and groundmass microlites. Recent machine learning approaches reproduce P–T conditions across all ΔT conditions. Applying our experimental constraints to sector-zoned microphenocrysts and groundmass microlites erupted during the 1974 eccentric eruption at Mt. Etna, we highlight that both hourglass and prism sectors are suitable for thermobarometry, given that equilibrium is sufficiently tested for. The combination of DiHd, EnFs, CaTs and CaTi models identifies compositions closest to equilibrium with the bulk melt composition, and results in smaller differences in P–T calculated for hourglass and prism sectors compared with applying only DiHd and EnFs equilibrium models. This provides a framework to assess crystallisation conditions recorded by sector-zoned clinopyroxene crystals in mafic alkaline settings.

Description: Published

Description: egad074

Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: As global temperatures continue to rise, a key uncertainty of terrestrial carbon (C)–climate feedback is the rate of C loss upon abrupt permafrost thaw. This type of thawing—termed thermokarst—may in turn accelerate or dampen the response of microbial degradation of soil organic matter and carbon dioxide (CO2) release to climate warming. However, such impacts have not yet been explored in experimental studies. Here, by experimentally warming three thermo-erosion gullies in an upland thermokarst site combined with incubating soils from five additional thermokarst-impacted sites on the Tibetan Plateau, we investigate how warming responses of soil CO2 release would change upon upland thermokarst formation. Our results show that warming-induced increase in soil CO2 release is ~5.5 times higher in thermokarst features than the adjacent non-thermokarst landforms. This larger warming response is associated with the lower substrate quality and higher abundance of microbial functional genes for recalcitrant C degradation in thermokarst-affected soils. Taken together, our study provides experimental evidence that warming-associated soil CO2 loss becomes stronger upon abrupt permafrost thaw, which could exacerbate the positive soil C–climate feedback in permafrost-affected regions.

Description: Background: Northern ecosystems are strongly influenced by herbivores that differ in their impacts on the ecosystem. Yet the role of herbivore diversity in shaping the structure and functioning of tundra ecosystems has been overlooked. With climate and land-use changes causing rapid shifts in Arctic species assemblages, a better understanding of the consequences of herbivore diversity changes for tundra ecosystem functioning is urgently needed. This systematic review synthesizes available evidence on the effects of herbivore diversity on different processes, functions, and properties of tundra ecosystems. Methods: Following a published protocol, our systematic review combined primary field studies retrieved from bibliographic databases, search engines and specialist websites that compared tundra ecosystem responses to different levels of vertebrate and invertebrate herbivore diversity. We used the number of functional groups of herbivores (i.e., functional group richness) as a measure of the diversity of the herbivore assemblage. We screened titles, abstracts, and full texts of studies using pre-defined eligibility criteria. We critically appraised the validity of the studies, tested the influence of different moderators, and conducted sensitivity analyses. Quantitative synthesis (i.e., calculation of effect sizes) was performed for ecosystem responses reported by at least five articles and meta-regressions including the effects of potential modifiers for those reported by at least 10 articles. Review findings: The literature searches retrieved 5944 articles. After screening titles, abstracts, and full texts, 201 articles including 3713 studies (i.e., individual comparisons) were deemed relevant for the systematic review, with 2844 of these studies included in quantitative syntheses. The available evidence base on the effects of herbivore diversity on tundra ecosystems is concentrated around well-established research locations and focuses mainly on the impacts of vertebrate herbivores on vegetation. Overall, greater herbivore diversity led to increased abundance of feeding marks by herbivores and soil temperature, and to reduced total abundance of plants, graminoids, forbs, and litter, plant leaf size, plant height, and moss depth, but the effects of herbivore diversity were difficult to tease apart from those of excluding vertebrate herbivores. The effects of different functional groups of herbivores on graminoid and lichen abundance compensated each other, leading to no net effects when herbivore effects were combined. In turn, smaller herbivores and large-bodied herbivores only reduced plant height when occurring together but not when occurring separately. Greater herbivore diversity increased plant diversity in graminoid tundra but not in other habitat types. Conclusions: This systematic review underscores the importance of herbivore diversity in shaping the structure and function of Arctic ecosystems, with different functional groups of herbivores exerting additive or compensatory effects that can be modulated by environmental conditions. Still, many challenges remain to fully understand the complex impacts of herbivore diversity on tundra ecosystems. Future studies should explicitly address the role of herbivore diversity beyond presence-absence, targeting a broader range of ecosystem responses and explicitly including invertebrate herbivores. A better understanding of the role of herbivore diversity will enhance our ability to predict whether and where shifts in herbivore assemblages might mitigate or further amplify the impacts of environmental change on Arctic ecosystems.

Description: The joint ESA/NASA Mass-change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC) has the objective to extend time-series from previous gravity missions, including an improvement of accuracy and spatio-temporal resolution. The long-term monitoring of Earth’s gravity field carries information on mass change induced by water cycle, climate change and mass transport processes between atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans and solid Earth. MAGIC will be composed of two satellite pairs flying in different orbit planes. The NASA/DLR-led first pair (P1) is expected to be in a near-polar orbit around 500 km of altitude; while the second ESA-led pair (P2) is expected to be in an inclined orbit of 65°–70° at approximately 400 km altitude. The ESA-led pair P2 Next Generation Gravity Mission shall be launched after P1 in a staggered manner to form the MAGIC constellation. The addition of an inclined pair shall lead to reduction of temporal aliasing effects and consequently of reliance on de-aliasing models and post-processing. The main novelty of the MAGIC constellation is the delivery of mass-change products at higher spatial resolution, temporal (i.e. subweekly) resolution, shorter latency and higher accuracy than the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO). This will pave the way to new science applications and operational services. In this paper, an overview of various fields of science and service applications for hydrology, cryosphere, oceanography, solid Earth, climate change and geodesy is provided. These thematic fields and newly enabled applications and services were analysed in the frame of the initial ESA Science Support activities for MAGIC. The analyses of MAGIC scenarios for different application areas in the field of geosciences confirmed that the double-pair configuration will significantly enlarge the number of observable mass-change phenomena by resolving smaller spatial scales with an uncertainty that satisfies evolved user requirements expressed by international bodies such as IUGG. The required uncertainty levels of dedicated thematic fields met by MAGIC unfiltered Level-2 products will benefit hydrological applications by recovering more than 90 per cent of the major river basins worldwide at 260 km spatial resolution, cryosphere applications by enabling mass change signal separation in the interior of Greenland from those in the coastal zones and by resolving small-scale mass variability in challenging regions such as the Antarctic Peninsula, oceanography applications by monitoring meridional overturning circulation changes on timescales of years and decades, climate applications by detecting amplitude and phase changes of Terrestrial Water Storage after 30 yr in 64 and 56 per cent of the global land areas and solid Earth applications by lowering the Earthquake detection threshold from magnitude 8.8 to magnitude 7.4 with spatial resolution increased to 333 km.

Description: Published

Description: 1288–1308

Description: JCR Journal

Description: We study the weak solvability of a system of coupled Allen–Cahn-like equations resembling cross- diffusion which arises as a model for the consolidation of saturated porous media. Besides using energy- like estimates, we cast the special structure of the system in the framework of the Leray–Schauder fixed- point principle and ensure in this way the local existence of strong solutions to a regularized version of our system. Furthermore, weak convergence techniques ensure the existence of weak solutions to the original consolidation problem. The uniqueness of global-in-time solutions is guaranteed in a particular case. Moreover, we use a finite difference scheme to show the negativity of the vector of solutions.

Description: Published

Description: 224–250

Description: JCR Journal