ALBERT

Description: The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.

Description: This study investigates the mesoscale dynamics involved in the 8–11 October 2008 unseasonably strong African dust episode, during which dust was transported to the Iberian Peninsula (IP). We employ observational datasets and a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry simulations. The analysis shows that during 0900–1200 UTC 9 October, a mesoscale convective system developed over the Atlas Mountains and resulted in a southwestward propagating convective cold pool outflow on the southern foothills of the Anti-Atlas, which lifted dust from the source region. Between 1200 and 1800 UTC 9 October, new moist convection was enhanced over the Atlas Mountains due to intensifying confluence among a heat low, moist southwesterly Atlantic sea-breeze front, and northeasterly flow associated with the convective cold pool near western Algeria. This new moist convection intensified the strength of the convective cold pool outflow and haboob, both of which continued propagating southwestward. At 1200 UTC 10 October, the low-pressure system migrated poleward on the southern slopes of the Anti-Atlas Mountains in association with a mountain-plains solenoidal circulation due to the daytime differential heating between the southern slopes of the Anti-Atlas and nearby atmosphere. The deepening low-pressure and strengthening Atlantic sea-breeze redirected an equatorward advancing dust plume into the poleward direction. The dust plume ultimately crossed the Saharan Atlas Mountains on 11 October and finally impacted the IP. Key Points: - WRF-Chem simulation of an unseasonably strong haboob on the southern slopes of the Atlas Mountains - The equatorward-advancing dust plume was recirculated in the poleward direction by an Atlantic sea-breeze front - The Atlantic sea-breeze front and an intensified upper-level cutoff vortex are instrumental for dust transport over the Iberian Peninsula

Description: Despite the implication of aerosols for the radiation budget, there are persistent differences in data for the aerosol optical depth (τ) for 1998–2019. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the large-scale spatio-temporal patterns of mid-visible τ from modern data sets. In total, we assessed 94 different global data sets from eight satellite retrievals, four aerosol-climate model ensembles, one operational ensemble product, two reanalyses, one climatology and one merged satellite product. We include the new satellite data SLSTR and aerosol-climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models Phase 3 (AeroCom-III). Our intercomparison highlights model differences and observational uncertainty. Spatial mean τ for 60°N – 60°S ranges from 0.124 to 0.164 for individual satellites, with a mean of 0.14. Averaged τ from aerosol-climate model ensembles fall within this satellite range, but individual models do not. Our assessment suggests no systematic improvement compared to CMIP5 and AeroCom-I. Although some regional biases have been reduced, τ from both CMIP6 and AeroCom-III are for instance substantially larger along extra-tropical storm tracks compared to the satellite products. The considerable uncertainty in observed τ implies that a model evaluation based on a single satellite product might draw biased conclusions. This underlines the need for continued efforts to improve both model and satellite estimates of τ, for example, through measurement campaigns in areas of particularly uncertain satellite estimates identified in this study, to facilitate a better understanding of aerosol effects in the Earth system. Key Points: - Present-day patterns in aerosol optical depth differ substantially between 94 modern global data sets - The range in spatial means from individual satellites is −11% to +17% of the multi-satellite mean - Spatial means from climate model intercomparison projects fall within the satellite range but strong regional differences are identified

Description: Solar radiation received at the Earth's surface (Rs) is comprised of two components, the direct radiation (Rd) and the diffuse radiation (Rf). Rd, the direct beam from the sun, is essential for concentrated solar power generation. Rf, scattered by atmospheric molecules, aerosols, or cloud droplets, has a fertilization effect on plant photosynthesis. But how Rd and Rf change diurnally is largely unknown owing to the lack of long-term measurements. Taking advantage of 22 years of homogeneous hourly surface observations over China, this study documents the climatological means and evolutions in the diurnal cycles of Rd and Rf since 1993, with an emphasis on their implications for solar power and agricultural production. Over the solar energy resource region, we observe a loss of Rd which is relatively large near sunrise and sunset at low solar elevation angles when the sunrays pass through the atmosphere on a longer pathway. However, the concentrated Rd energy covering an average 10-hr period around noon during a day is relatively unaffected. Over the agricultural crop resource region, the large amounts of clouds and aerosols scattering more of the incoming light result in Rf taking the main proportion of Rs during the whole day. Rf resources and their fertilization effect in the main crop region of China further enhances since 1993 over almost all hours of the day. Key Points: - The loss of direct radiation over China since 1993 is relatively large at sunrise and sunset with little effect on solar power generation - The diffuse component dominates solar radiation normally near sunrise and sunset, but for the whole day over the main sown area of China - The diffuse fraction is further enhanced in the main sown area of China over almost all hours of the day since 1993

Description: Dieses Papier beschreibt Empfehlungen zur Weiterentwicklung des nationalen Brennstoff-Emissionshandelsgesetzes (BEHG) – und wie ein reibungsfreier Übergang zur europäischen Ebene gestaltet werden kann. Bei der Einführung und Ausgestaltung eines EU-Emissionshandelssystem für Gebäude und Straßenverkehr (EU ETS-II) bestehen derzeit noch diverse Unsicherheiten. Unabhängig von den Entscheidungen auf europäischer Ebene identifizieren wir jedoch vier No-Regret Maßnahmen zur Weiterentwicklung des BEHG, die in allen Fällen förderlich sind: Zeitliches Vorziehen und Anhebung des Preiskorridors plus Versteigerung: Die Einführung eines Preiskorridors und die Versteigerung von Zertifikaten sollte auf das Jahr 2023 vorgezogen werden. Zudem sollte der Preiskorridor angehoben und verbreitert werden, um den neuen nationalen Klimazielen Rechnung zu tragen. BEHG Emissionsmengen analog zu Sektorzielen: Die EU-Kommission hat im Fit-for-55 Paket eine Erhöhung des deutschen ESR-Ziels auf 50% vorgeschlagen, was auch ungefähr den nationalen Zielen im Rahmen des Klimaschutzgesetzes (KSG) von 2021 entspricht. Um zu einem früheren Zeitpunkt Verbindlichkeit zu schaffen, sollten daher die BEHG-Emissionsmengen aus den KSG Sektorzielen abgeleitet werden. Direkte Pro-Kopf-Rückerstattung: Für den zu erwartenden Fall deutlich steigender CO2-Preise sollte die Bundesregierung schon vor 2023 die institutionellen Voraussetzungen für die Umsetzung des Klimagelds wie im Koalitionsvertrag beschrieben schaffen. Nationaler CO2-Mindestpreis: Bis spätestens 2025 sollte ein Mindestpreis zur eventuellen Ergänzung eines EU ETS-II vorbereitet und ggf. implementiert werden. Dadurch kann im Fall anfänglich niedriger Preise im EU ETS-II garantiert werden, dass der CO2-Preis in Deutschland weiterhin kontinuierlich ansteigt. Neben diesen Maßnahmen auf nationaler Ebene, sollte sich die Bundesregierung in den Fit-for-55 Verhandlungen einsetzen (1) für die Flexibilität zwischen EU ETS und ESR sowie (2) für ein graduelles Linking zwischen ETS-I und ETS-II. Mit beiden Maßnahmen können die sehr hohen Preisunterscheide reduziert und die Effizienz der Klimapolitik erhöht werden.

Description: Zusammenfassung 1. Einleitung 2. Zwei Unsicherheiten 3. Eckpunkte und No-Regret Optionen 4. Implikationen für die Fit-for-55 Verhandlungen

Description: Climate engineering (CE) measures are increasingly discussed when dealing with the adverse impacts of climate change. While much research has focused on individual methods, few studies attempt to compare and rank the effectiveness of these measures. Furthermore, model uncertainties are seldom acknowledged and lesser still, estimated when CE scenarios are assessed. In this work, we quantify the variance in outcomes due to poorly constrained model parameters under several idealized CE scenarios. The four scenarios considered are (1) warming under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 without CE applied and the same emission scenario with (2) afforestation,(3) solar radiation management, and (4) artificial ocean alkalinization. By considering the parametric uncertainty in model outputs, we demonstrate the problems with comparing these scenarios using a single parameter setting. Using statistical emulation, we estimate the probability distributions of several model outcomes. Based on such distributions, we suggest an approach to ranking the effectiveness of the scenarios considered according to their probability of avoiding climate thresholds.

Description: A new estimate of Agulhas leakage transport is calculated using profiling floats and drifters. Since Richardson's seminal estimate of 15 Sv in 2007, the number of floats and drifters passing through the Agulhas Current has quadrupled. Within uncertainties we find the same leakage percentages as Richardson, with 34% of drifters leaking at the surface and 21% of floats leaking at 1,000 m depth. We find that the drifters tend to follow a northward leakage pathway via the Benguela Current compared to the northwestward leakage pathway of the floats along the Agulhas Ring corridor. We simulate the isobaric and profiling behavior of the floats and drifters using two high resolution models and two offline Lagrangian tracking tools, quantifying for the first time the sampling biases associated with the observations. We find that the isobaric bias cannot be robustly simulated but likely causes an underestimate of observed leakage by one or two Sverdrups. The profiling behavior of the floats causes no significant bias in the leakage. Fitting a simulated vertical leakage profile to the observed leakage percentages from the floats and drifters and using the mean Agulhas transport observed by a moored array at 34°S we find an improved Agulhas leakage transport of 21.3 Sv, with an estimated error of 4.7 Sv. Our new leakage transport is higher primarily because we account for leakage at depths down to 2,000 m, while Richardson considered only the top 1,000 m of the water column.

Description: Upwelling ocean currents associated with oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) supply nutrients fuelling intense marine productivity. Perturbations in the extent and intensity of OMZs are projected in the future, but it is currently uncertain how this will impact fluxes of redox‐sensitive trace metal micronutrients to the surface ocean. Here we report seawater concentrations of Fe, Mn, Co, Cd, and Ni alongside the redox indicator iodide/iodate in the Peruvian OMZ during the 2015 El Niño event. The El Niño drove atypical upwelling of oxygen‐enriched water over the Peruvian Shelf, resulting in oxidized iodine and strongly depleted Fe (II), total dissolved Fe, and reactive particulate Fe concentrations relative to non‐El Niño conditions. Observations of Fe were matched by the redox‐sensitive micronutrients Co and Mn, but not by non‐redox‐sensitive Cd and Ni. These observations demonstrate that oxygenation of OMZs significantly reduces water column inventories of redox‐sensitive micronutrients, with potential impacts on ocean productivity. Plain Language Summary Some trace metals, including iron, are essential micronutrients for phytoplankton growth. However, the solubility of iron is very low under oxygenated conditions. Consequently, restricted iron availability in oxygen‐rich seawater can limit phytoplankton growth in the ocean, including in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific. Under typical conditions, depleted oxygen on the South American continental shelf is generally thought to enhance iron supply to the ocean, fuelling phytoplankton productivity in overlying waters. However, the impact of changes in oxygenation, which are predicted to occur in the future, are not known. The 2015 El Niño event led to unusually high oxygen on the Peruvian shelf, offering a system‐scale test on how oxygen influences seawater iron concentrations. We show that El Niño‐driven oxygenation resulted in marked decreases in iron and other metals sensitive to oxygen (cobalt and manganese), whilst metals not sensitive to oxygen (cadmium and nickel) were unaffected. The measured reductions in iron may have led to decreased phytoplankton productivity.

Description: The causes of the seasonal cycle of vertical turbulent cooling at the base of the mixed layer are assessed using observations from moored buoys in the tropical Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (4°N, 23°W) and trade wind (15°N, 38°W) regions together with mixing parameterizations and a one-dimensional model. At 4°N the parameterized turbulent cooling rates during 2017–2018 and 2019 agree with indirect estimates from the climatological mooring heat budget residual: both show mean cooling of 25–30 W m (Formula presented.) during November–July, when winds are weakest and the mixed layer is thinnest, and 0–10 W m (Formula presented.) during August–October. Mixing during November–July is driven by variability on multiple time scales, including subdiurnal, near-inertial, and intraseasonal. Shear associated with tropical instability waves (TIWs) is found to generate mixing and monthly mean cooling of 15–30 W m (Formula presented.) during May–July in 2017 and 2019. At 15°N the seasonal cycle of turbulent cooling is out of phase compared to 4°N, with largest cooling of up to 60 W m (Formula presented.) during boreal fall. However, the relationships between wind speed, mixed layer depth, and turbulent mixing are similar: weaker mean winds and a thinner mixed layer in the fall are associated with stronger mixing and turbulent cooling of SST. These results emphasize the importance of seasonal modulations of mixed layer depth at both locations and shear from TIWs at 4°N.

Description: Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) into coastal areas is a common global phenomenon and is rapidly gaining scientific interest due to its influence on marine ecology, the coastal sedimentary environment and its potential as a future freshwater resource. We conducted an integrated study of hydroacoustic surveys combined with geochemical porewater and water column investigations at a well‐known groundwater seep site in Eckernförde Bay (Germany). We aim to better constrain the effects of shallow gas and SGD on high frequency multibeam backscatter data and to present acoustic indications for submarine groundwater discharge. Our high‐quality hydroacoustic data reveal hitherto unknown internal structures within the pockmarks in Eckernförde Bay. Using precisely positioned sediment core samples, our hydroacoustic‐geochemical approach can differentiate intra‐pockmark regimes that were formerly assigned to pockmarks of a different nature. We demonstrate that high‐frequency multibeam data, in particular the backscatter signals, can be used to detect shallow free gas in areas of enhanced groundwater advection in muddy sediments. Intriguingly, our data reveal relatively small (typically 〈15 m across) pockmarks within the much larger, previously mapped, pockmarks. The small pockmarks, which we refer to as “intra‐pockmarks”, have formed due to the localized ascent of gas and groundwater; they manifest themselves as a new type of ‘eyed’ pockmarks, revealed by their acoustic backscatter pattern. Our data suggest that, in organic‐rich muddy sediments, morphological lows combined with a strong multibeam backscatter signal can be indicative of free shallow gas and subsequent advective groundwater flow.

Description: A major surface circulation feature of the Arctic Ocean is the Transpolar Drift (TPD), a current that transports river‐influenced shelf water from the Laptev and East Siberian Seas toward the center of the basin and Fram Strait. In 2015, the international GEOTRACES program included a high‐resolution pan‐Arctic survey of carbon, nutrients, and a suite of trace elements and isotopes (TEIs). The cruises bisected the TPD at two locations in the central basin, which were defined by maxima in meteoric water and dissolved organic carbon concentrations that spanned 600 km horizontally and ~25‐50 m vertically. Dissolved TEIs such as Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Hg, Nd, and Th, which are generally particle‐reactive but can be complexed by organic matter, were observed at concentrations much higher than expected for the open ocean setting. Other trace element concentrations such as Al, V, Ga, and Pb were lower than expected due to scavenging over the productive East Siberian and Laptev shelf seas. Using a combination of radionuclide tracers and ice drift modeling, the transport rate for the core of the TPD was estimated at 0.9 ± 0.4 Sv (106 m3 s‐1). This rate was used to derive the mass flux for TEIs that were enriched in the TPD, revealing the importance of lateral transport in supplying materials beneath the ice to the central Arctic Ocean and potentially to the North Atlantic Ocean via Fram Strait. Continued intensification of the Arctic hydrologic cycle and permafrost degradation will likely lead to an increase in the flux of TEIs into the Arctic Ocean.

Description: Key Points: - The Kamchatka arc lavas show across-arc variations in chalcophile elements, suggesting that the amount of fluid decreases with depth - Slab-derived fluids have a negligible contribution to the Li budget of the Kamchatka arc lavas - CKD lavas have high U/Th, Li/Y, La/Sm and B/Nb ratios, indicating that lawsonite breakdown reaction dominates the water release Chalcophile elements and lithium (Li) isotopes were measured on lavas from a 220 km transect across the Kamchatka arc in order to investigate the fluid variations below arc volcanoes and to trace the geochemical behaviour of Li in convergent plate margins. From the Eastern Volcanic Front (EVF), through the Central Kamchatka Depression (CKD), into the Sredinny Range (SR) volcanic zones, chalcophile element ratios (e.g., As/Ce and Sb/Ce) show clear across‐arc variations, decreasing (e.g., As/Ce: 0.20 to 0.03 and Sb/Ce: 0.013 to 0.002) with increasing depth above the slab (110 to 400 km). This clearly indicates a gradually decreasing influx of slab‐derived fluids added to the mantle wedge as the slab subducts below Kamchatka. In addition, the anomalously high U/Th, La/Sm and B/Nb ratios in the CKD lavas suggest lawsonite breakdown reaction dominates the fluid release in this area. However, Li/Y (0.07 to 1.78) and δ7Li (+1.8 to +5.4‰, with an exception of +8.6‰ in CKD) show limited variations and values similar to the MORB mantle. A dehydration model suggests that slab‐derived fluids, which are characterized by high Li concentration and high δ7Li, do not control the Li budget in Kamchatka arc lavas. Therefore, the isotopic heavy Li from slab‐derived fluids likely equilibrates in the sub‐arc mantle, which acts as a buffer for Li systematics. In addition, based on the Li isotopic signatures of Klyuchevskoy volcano, our study demonstrates insignificant Li isotopic fractionation during mantle melting and subsequent differentiation.

Description: The Endeavour Segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge is well known for its abundance of hydrothermal vents and chimneys. One-meter scale multibeam mapping data collected by an autonomous undersea vehicle revealed 572 chimneys along the central 14 km of the segment, although only 47 are named and known to be active. Hydrothermal deposits are restricted to the axial graben and the near-rims of the graben above a seismically mapped axial magma lens. The sparse eruptive activity on the segment during the last 4,300 years has not buried inactive chimneys, as occurs at more magmatically robust mid-ocean ridges.

Description: Although the core velocity of the Atlantic North Equatorial Undercurrent (NEUC) is low (0.1−0.3 m s−1), it has been suggested to act as an important oxygen supply route towards the oxygen minimum zone in the eastern tropical North Atlantic. For the first time, the intraseasonal to interannual NEUC variability and its impact on oxygen are investigated based on shipboard and moored velocity observations around 5°N, 23°W. In contrast to previous studies that were mainly based on models or hydrographic data, we find hardly any seasonal cycle of NEUC transports in the central Atlantic. The NEUC transport variability is instead dominated by sporadic intraseasonal events. Only some of these events are associated with high oxygen levels suggesting an occasional eastward oxygen supply by NEUC transport events. Nevertheless, they likely contribute to the local oxygen maximum in the mean shipboard section along 23°W at the NEUC core position.

Description: The Arctic Ocean is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, a process that is mainly driven by the uptake of anthropogenic carbon (Cant) from the atmosphere. Although Cant concentrations cannot be measured directly in the ocean, they have been estimated using data‐based methods such as the transient time distribution (TTD) approach, which characterizes the ventilation of water masses with inert transient tracers, such as CFC‐12. Here, we evaluate the TTD approach in the Arctic Ocean using an eddying ocean model as a test bed. When the TTD approach is applied to simulated CFC‐12 in that model, it underestimates the same model's directly simulated Cant concentrations by up to 12%, a bias that stems from its idealized assumption of gas equilibrium between atmosphere and surface water, both for CFC‐12 and anthropogenic CO2. Unlike the idealized assumption, the simulated partial pressure of CFC‐12 (p CFC‐12) in Arctic surface waters is undersaturated relative to that in the atmosphere in regions and times of deep‐water formation, while the simulated equivalent for Cant is supersaturated. After accounting for the TTD approach's negative bias, the total amount of Cant in the Arctic Ocean in 2005 increases by 8% to 3.3 ± 0.3 Pg C. By combining the adjusted TTD approach with scenarios of future atmospheric CO2, it is estimated that all Arctic waters, from surface to depth, would become corrosive to aragonite by the middle of the next century even if atmospheric CO2 could be stabilized at 540 ppm.

Description: In continental settings, seismic failure is generally restricted to crustal depth. Crustal structure is therefore an important proxy to evaluate seismic hazard of continental fault systems. Here we present a seismic velocity model across the Gibraltar Arc System, from the Eurasian Betics Range (South Iberian margin), across offshore East Alboran and Pytheas (African margin) basins, and ending onshore in North Morocco. Our results reveal the nature and configuration of the crust supporting the coexistence of three different crustal domains: the continental crust of the Betics, the continental crust of the Pytheas Basin (south Alboran Basin) and onshore Morocco, and a distinct domain formed of magmatic arc crust under the East Alboran Basin. The magmatic arc under the East Alboran Basin is characterized by a velocity structure containing a relatively high‐velocity lower crust (~7 km/s) bounded at the top and base by reflections. The lateral extension of this crust is mapped integrating a second perpendicular wide‐angle seismic profile along the Eastern Alboran basin, together with basement samples, multibeam bathymetry, and a grid of deep‐penetrating multichannel seismic profiles. The transition between crustal domains is currently unrelated to extensional and magmatic processes that formed the basin. The abrupt transition zones between the different crustal domains support that they are bounded by crustal‐scale active fault systems that reactivate inherited structures. Seismicity in the area is constrained to upper‐middle crust depths, and most earthquakes nucleate outside of the magmatic arc domain. Key Points New velocity model reveals the lithospheric structure under the Betics (South Iberia), the Alboran Basin and the North African margin The East Alboran Basin is floored by magmatic arc crust, while the southern area of the Alboran Basin is floored by continental crust Seismic activity is constrained to the upper‐middle continental crust. Crustal domains are likely bounded by active faults

Description: We constrain the lithospheric mantle density of the North China Craton (NCC) at both in situ and standard temperature‐pressure (STP) conditions from gravity data. The lithosphere‐asthenosphere boundary (LAB) depth is constrained by our new thermal model, which is based on a new regional heat flow data set and a recent regional crustal model NCcrust. The new thermal model shows that the thermal lithosphere thickness is 〈120 km in most of the NCC, except for the northern and southern parts with the maximum depth of 170 km. The gravity calculations reveal a highly heterogeneous density structure of the lithospheric mantle with in situ and STP values of 3.22–3.29 and 3.32–3.40 g/cm3, respectively. Thick and reduced‐density cratonic‐type lithosphere is preserved mostly in the southern NCC. Most of the Eastern Block has a thin (90–140 km) and high‐density lithospheric mantle. Most of the Western Block has a high‐density lithospheric mantle and a thin (80–110 km) lithosphere typical of Phanerozoic regions, which suggests that the Archean lithosphere is no longer present there. We conclude that in almost the entire NCC the lithosphere has lost its cratonic characteristics by geodynamic processes that include, but are not limited to, the Paleozoic closure of the Paleo‐Asian Ocean in the north, the Mesozoic Yangtze Craton flat subduction in the south, the Mesozoic Pacific subduction in the east, the Cenozoic remote response to the Indian‐Eurasian collision in the west, and the Cenozoic extensional tectonics (possibly associated with the slab roll‐back) in the center.

Description: We investigate the lag between warm interannual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) events in the eastern-equatorial Atlantic, the Atlantic Niños, and the occurrence of Benguela Niños along the southwestern Angolan coast. While it is commonly agreed that both events are associated with equatorial and subsequent coastal-trapped wave propagations driven remotely by a relaxation of the trade-winds, it is surprising that SST anomalies off Angola tend to precede the ones in the eastern-equatorial sector by ~1 month. To explain this counterintuitive behavior, our methodology is based on the experimentation with a Tropical Atlantic Ocean model. Using idealized wind-stress perturbations from a composite analysis, we trigger warm equatorial and coastal events over a stationary and then, seasonally varying ocean mean-state. In agreement with the linear dynamics, our results show that when the interannual wind-stress forcing is restricted to the western-central equatorial Atlantic, the model yields equatorial events leading the coastal ones. This implies that neither the differences in the ocean stratification between the two regions (thermocline depths or modal wave contributions) nor the seasonal phasing of the events explains the observed temporal sequence. Only if wind-stress anomalies are also prescribed in the coastal fringe, the coastal warming precedes the eastern-equatorial SST anomaly peak, emphasizing the role of the local forcing in the phenology of Benguela Niños. A weaker South-Atlantic Anticyclone initiates the coastal warming before the development of eastern-equatorial SST anomalies. Then, equatorward coastal wind anomalies, driven by a convergent anomalous circulation located on the warm Atlantic Niño, stop the remotely forced coastal warming prematurely.

Description: Observations and reanalysis products are used to investigate the substantial weakening in the southeastern tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature (SST) variability since 2000. Relative to 1982‐1999, the March‐April‐May SST variability in the Angola‐Benguela area (ABA) has decreased by more than 30 %. Both equatorial remote forcing and local forcing are known to play an important role in driving SST variability in the ABA. Compared to 1982‐1999, since 2000 equatorial remote forcing had less influence on ABA SSTs whereas local forcing has become more important. In particular, the robust correlation that existed between the equatorial zonal wind stress and the ABA SSTs has substantially weakened, suggesting less influence of Kelvin waves on ABA SSTs. Moreover, the strong correlation linking the South Atlantic Anticyclone and the ABA SSTs has reduced. Finally, multidecadal surface warming of the ABA could also have played a role in the weakening of the interannual SST variability.

Description: Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

Description: The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) of the equatorial zonal wind leads to zonally symmetric temperature variations in the stratosphere that descend downward. Here we investigate the QBO‐induced temperature anomalies in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and detect pronounced longitudinal variations of the signal. In addition, the QBO temperature anomalies show a strong seasonal variability. The magnitude of these seasonal and longitudinal QBO variations is comparable to the magnitude of the well‐known zonal mean QBO signal in the TTL. At the cold point tropopause, the strongest QBO variations of around ±1.6 K are found over regions of active convection such as the West Pacific and Africa during boreal winter. The weakest QBO variations of ±0.25 K are detected over the East Pacific during boreal summer, while the zonal mean signal ranges around ±0.7 K. The longitudinal variations are associated with enhanced convective activity that occurs during QBO cold phases and locally enhances the cold anomalies.

Description: We present a mechanism for self‐sustained ocean circulation changes that cause abrupt temperature changes over Greenland in a multimillennial climate model simulation with glacial CO2 concentrations representative of Marine Isotope Stage 3. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre (SPG) oscillate on millennial time scales. When the AMOC is strong, the SPG is weak and contracted; when the AMOC is weak, the SPG is strong and extensive. The coupling between the two systems via wind‐driven and density‐driven feedbacks is key to maintaining the oscillations. The SPG controls the transport of heat and salt into the deep‐water formation sites and thus controls the AMOC strength. The strength and location of the deep‐water formation affect the density‐driven part of the SPG and thus control the mean strength and extent of the SPG. This mechanism supports the hypothesis that coupled ocean‐ice‐atmosphere interactions could have triggered abrupt glacial climate change.

Description: There is a zonally oriented teleconnection pattern over the high-latitude Eurasian continent, which is maintained through baroclinic energy conversion. In this study, we investigate the unique features of the maintenance mechanism of this teleconnection. It is found that the baroclinic energy conversion is most efficient in both the mid-troposphere and the lower troposphere, and that the baroclinic energy conversion in the lower troposphere is comparable to that in the mid-troposphere. Further results indicate that the basic state plays a crucial role in the baroclinic energy conversion. For both the mid and lower troposphere, the atmospheric stability is low and the Coriolis parameter is large over high-latitude Eurasia, favoring strong baroclinic energy conversion. Particularly, in the lower troposphere, the atmospheric stability exhibits a clear land-sea contrast, favoring baroclinic energy conversion over the continents rather than the oceans. Furthermore, in the lower troposphere, the in-phase configuration of the meridional wind and temperature anomalies, which results from the strong meridional gradient of mean temperature around the north edge of the Eurasian continent, also significantly contributes to baroclinic energy conversion. This study highlights the role of the basic state of temperature rather than zonal wind in maintaining the high-latitude teleconnection through baroclinic energy conversion.

Description: Key Points Calibration of XRF core scanning data highlights the need for careful examination of sediment properties such as porosity/water Grain size and water content in the sediment trigger systematic artifacts in the signal intensity of light elements (e.g. Si and Al) Known terrigenous flux proxies (e.g Ti/Ca, Fe/Ca) are influenced by sea level variations X‐ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning of marine and lake sediments has been extensively used to study changes in past environmental and climatic processes over a range of timescales. The interpretation of XRF‐derived element ratios in paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic studies primarily considers differences in the relative abundances of particular elements. Here we present new XRF core scanning data from two long sediment cores in the Andaman Sea in the northern Indian Ocean and show that sea level related processes influence terrigenous inputs based proxies such as Ti/Ca, Fe/Ca, and elemental concentrations of the transition metals (e.g. Mn). Zr/Rb ratios are mainly a function of changes in median grain size of lithogenic particles and often covary with changes in Ca concentrations that reflect changes in biogenic calcium carbonate production. This suggests that a common process (i.e. sea level) influences both records. The interpretation of lighter element data (e.g. Si and Al) based on low XRF counts is complicated as variations in mean grain size and water content result in systematic artifacts and signal intensities not related to the Al or Si content of the sediments. This highlights the need for calibration of XRF core scanning data based on discrete sample analyses and careful examination of sediment properties such as porosity/water content for reliably disentangling environmental signals from other physical properties. In the case of the Andaman Sea, reliable extraction of a monsoon signal will require accounting for the sea level influence on the XRF data.

Description: Subtropical dry zones, located in the Hadley cells' subsidence regions, strongly influence regional climate as well as outgoing longwave radiation. Changes in these dry zones could have significant impact on surface climate as well as on the atmospheric energy budget. This study investigates the behavior of upper-tropospheric dry zones in a changing climate, using the variable upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH), calculated from climate model experiment output as well as from radiances measured with satellite-based sensors. The global UTH distribution shows that dry zones form a belt in the subtropical winter hemisphere. In the summer hemisphere they concentrate over the eastern ocean basins, where the descent regions of the subtropical anticyclones are located. Recent studies with model and satellite data have found tendencies of increasing dryness at the poleward edges of the subtropical subsidence zones. However, UTH calculated from climate simulations with 25 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) shows these tendencies only for parts of the winter-hemispheric dry belts. In the summer hemisphere, even though differences exist between the simulations, UTH is increasing in most dry zones, particularly in the South and North Pacific Ocean. None of the summer dry zones is expanding in these simulations. Upper-tropospheric dry zones estimated from observational data do not show any robust signs of change since 1979. Apart from a weak drying tendency at the poleward edge of the southern winter-hemispheric dry belt in infrared measurements, nothing indicates that the subtropical dry belts have expanded poleward.

Description: It might be impossible to truly fathom the magnitude of the threat that global-mean sea level rise poses. However, conceptualizing the scale of the solutions required to protect ourselves against global-mean sea level rise, aids in our ability to acknowledge and understand the threat that sea level rise poses. On these grounds, we here discuss a means to protect over 25 million people and important economical regions in northern Europe against sea level rise. We propose the construction of a Northern European Enclosure Dam (NEED) that stretches between France, the United Kingdom and Norway. NEED may seem an overwhelming and unrealistic solution at first. However, our preliminary study suggests that NEED is potentially favorable financially, but also in scale, impacts and challenges compared to that of alternative solutions, such as (managed) migrations and that of country-by-country protection efforts. The mere realization that a solution as considerable as NEED might be a viable and cost-effective protection measure is illustrative of the extraordinary global threat of global-mean sea level rise that we are facing. As such, the concept of constructing NEED showcases the extent of protection efforts that are required if mitigation efforts fail to limit sea level rise.

Description: Idealized models or emulators of volcanic aerosol forcing have been widely used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of past volcanic forcing. However, existing models, including the most recently developed Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA; Toohey et al., doi: 10.5194/gmd‐2016‐83), (i) do not account for the height of injection of volcanic SO urn:x-wiley:jgrd:media:jgrd55987:jgrd55987-math-0001; (ii) prescribe a vertical structure for the forcing; and (iii) are often calibrated against a single eruption. We present a new idealized model, EVA_H, that addresses these limitations. Compared to EVA, EVA_H makes predictions of the global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth that are (i) similar for the 1979–1998 period characterized by the large and high‐altitude tropical SO urn:x-wiley:jgrd:media:jgrd55987:jgrd55987-math-0002 injections of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991); (ii) significantly improved for the 1998–2015 period characterized by smaller eruptions with a large variety of injection latitudes and heights. Compared to EVA, the sensitivity of volcanic forcing to injection latitude and height in EVA_H is much more consistent with results from climate models that include interactive aerosol chemistry and microphysics, even though EVA_H remains less sensitive to eruption latitude than the latter models. We apply EVA_H to investigate potential biases and uncertainties in EVA‐based volcanic forcing data sets from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). EVA and EVA_H forcing reconstructions do not significantly differ for tropical high‐altitude volcanic injections. However, for high‐latitude or low‐altitude injections, our reconstructed forcing is significantly lower. This suggests that volcanic forcing in CMIP6 last millenium experiments may be overestimated for such eruptions.

Description: The comparison of equivalent neutral winds obtained from (a) four WHOI buoys in the subtropics and (b) scatterometer estimates at those locations reveals a root-mean-square (RMS) difference of 0.56-0.76 m/s. To investigate this RMS difference, different buoy wind error sources were examined. These buoys are particularly well suited to examine two important sources of buoy wind errors because: (1) redundant anemometers and a comparison with numerical flow simulations allow us to quantitatively assess flow distortion errors, and (2) one-minute sampling at the buoys allows us to examine the sensitivity of buoy temporal sampling/averaging in the buoy-scatterometer comparisons. The inter-anemometer difference varies as a function of wind direction relative to the buoy wind vane and is consistent with the effects of flow distortion expected based on numerical flow simulations. Comparison between the anemometers and scatterometer winds supports the interpretation that the inter-anemometer disagreement, which can be up to 5% of the wind speed, is due to flow distortion. These insights motivate an empirical correction to the individual anemometer records and subsequent comparison with scatterometer estimates show good agreement.

Description: Back‐arc basins open in response to subduction processes, which cause extension in the upper plate, usually along trench‐parallel spreading axes. However, global seismic databases reveal that the majority of seismic events in the Lau Basin occur along transcurrent (strike‐slip) rather than extensional faults. To better characterize active deformation in this region we compared Centroid Moment Tensors (CMTs), calculated for large (Mw 〉5), shallow (〈30 km) seismic events to the orientations of seafloor lineaments mapped throughout the Lau Basin. Ship‐based multibeam was combined with vertical gravity gradient data to provide comprehensive coverage to create the lineament map. By comparing the possible focal planes of the CMTs to the orientations of the lineaments, the most likely fault plane solutions were selected, thus classifying the faults and establishing the nature of the highly variable stress regimes in the basin. We resolved the strike, dip and dip direction of 308 faults, and classified 258 additional structures by fault type. The analysis highlights a stress regime that is dominated by a combination of left‐lateral and right‐lateral strike‐slip faults, large‐scale transcurrent motion along rigid crustal‐scale fault zones, and non‐rigid diffuse deformation along pre‐existing seafloor structures, with extension mainly limited to the tips of propagating rifts and spreading centers. By resolving many of the uncertain motions on the mapped lineaments of the Lau Basin, the CMT analysis addresses a number of questions concerning basin‐scale stress regimes and microplate development, complementing GPS measurements and providing a more complete picture of the complexities of back‐arc basin development.

Description: The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) was a gradual warming event and carbon cycle perturbation that occurred between 40.5 and 40.1 Ma. A number of characteristics, including greater-than-expected deep-sea carbonate dissolution, a lack of globally-coherent negative δ 13 40 C excursion in marine carbonates, a duration longer than the characteristic timescale of carbon-cycle recovery, and the absence of a clear trigger mechanism, challenge our current understanding of the Earth system and its regulatory feedbacks. This makes the MECO one of the most enigmatic events in the Cenozoic, dubbed a middle Eocene ‘carbon cycle conundrum’. Here we use boron isotopes in planktic foraminifera to better constrain pCO2 changes over the event. Over the MECO itself, we find that pCO2 rose by only 0.55-0.75 doublings, thus requiring a much more modest carbon injection than previously indicated by the alkenone δ 13 C-pCO2 proxy. In addition, this rise in pCO2 was focused around the peak of the 400 kyr warming trend. Before this, considerable global carbonate δ 18 O change was asynchronous with any coherent ocean pH (and hence pCO2) excursion. This finding suggests that middle Eocene climate (and perhaps a nascent cryosphere) was highly sensitive to small changes in radiative forcing.

Description: Observations during the satellite era 1979–2018 only depict small sea surface temperature (SST) trends over the Equatorial Atlantic cold tongue region in boreal summer. This lack of surface warming of the cold tongue, termed warming hole here, denotes an 11% amplification of the mean SST annual cycle. The warming hole is driven by a shoaling of the equatorial thermocline, linked to increased wind stress forcing, and damped by the surface turbulent heat fluxes. The satellite era warming deficit is not unusual during the twentieth century—similar weak trends were also observed during the 1890s–1910s and 1940s–1960s. The tendency for surface cooling appears to reflect an interaction of external forcing, which controls the timing and magnitude of the cooling, with the intrinsic variability of the climate system. The hypothesis for externally forced modulation of internal variability is supported by climate model simulations forced by the observed time-varying concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and natural aerosols. These show that increased greenhouse forcing warmed the cold tongue and aerosols cooled it during the satellite era. However, internal variability, as derived from control integrations with fixed, preindustrial values of greenhouse gases and aerosols, can potentially cause larger cooling than observed during the satellite era. Large uncertainties remain on the relative roles of external forcing and intrinsic variability in both observations and coupled climate models.

Description: Key points:  First insights into the crustal structure of the northeastern Lau Basin, along a 290 km transect at 17°20’S.  Crust in southern Fonualei Rift and Spreading Center was created by extension of arc crust and variable amount of magmatism.  Magmatic underplating is present in some parts of the southern Niuafo’ou Microplate The northeastern Lau Basin is one of the fastest opening and magmatically most active back‐arc regions on Earth. Although the current pattern of plate boundaries and motions in this complex mosaic of microplates is reasonably understood, the internal structure and evolution of the back‐arc crust are not. We present new geophysical data from a 290 km long east‐west oriented transect crossing the Niuafo’ou Microplate (back‐arc), the Fonualei Rift and Spreading Centre (FRSC) and the Tofua Volcanic Arc at 17°20’S. Our P‐wave tomography model and density modelling suggests that past crustal accretion inside the southern FRSC was accommodated by a combination of arc crustal extension and magmatic activity. The absence of magnetic reversals inside the FRSC supports this and suggests that focused seafloor spreading has until now not contributed to crustal accretion. The back‐arc crust constituting the southern Niuafo’ou Microplate reveals a heterogeneous structure comprising several crustal blocks. Some regions of the back‐arc show a crustal structure similar to typical oceanic crust, suggesting they originate from seafloor spreading. Other crustal blocks resemble a structure that is similar to volcanic arc crust or a ‘hydrous’ type of oceanic crust that has been created at a spreading center influenced by slab‐derived water at distances 〈 50 km to the arc. Throughout the back‐arc region we observe a high‐velocity (Vp 7.2‐7.5 km s‐1) lower crust, which is an indication for magmatic underplating, which is likely sustained by elevated upper mantle temperatures in this region.

Description: High‐temperature hydrothermal venting has been discovered on all modern mid‐ocean ridges at all spreading rates. Although significant strides have been made in understanding the underlying processes that shape such systems, several first‐order discrepancies between model predictions and observations remain. One key paradox is that numerical experiments consistently show entrainment of cold ambient seawater in shallow high permeability ocean crust causing a temperature drop that is difficult to reconcile with high vent temperatures. We investigate this conundrum using a thermo‐hydro‐chemical model that couples hydrothermal fluid flow with anhydrite‐ and pyrite‐forming reactions in the shallow subseafloor. The models show that precipitation of anhydrite in warming seawater and in cooling hydrothermal fluids during mixing results in the formation of a chimney‐like subseafloor structure around the upwelling, high‐temperature plume. The establishment of such anhydrite‐sealed zones reduces mixing between the hydrothermal fluid and seawater and results in an increase in vent temperature. Pyrite subsequently precipitates close to the seafloor within the anhydrite chimney. Although anhydrite thus formed may be dissolved when colder seawater circulates through the crust away from the spreading axis, the inside pyrite walls would be preserved as veins in present‐day metal deposits, thereby preserving the history of hydrothermal circulation through shallow oceanic crust.

Description: Recent winters have been unique due to the rapid and extreme cooling of the subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we present a novel view on its causes and consequences. Combining in-situ observations with remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data, we show that increased freshening of the subpolar region gives rise to a faster surface cooling in fall and winter. Large freshwater events, in particular, result in pronounced cold anomalies with sharp temperature gradients that promote an enhanced storminess. The storms reinforce the cooling by driving stronger heat losses and modulating the surface flow. Consistent with this mechanism, past freshwater events have been followed by cold anomalies in winter of approximately −2°C and increases in the North Atlantic Oscillation index of up to ∼0.6 within 3 years. We expect that future freshwater discharges into the North Atlantic will amplify the cold anomaly and trigger an enhanced wintertime storminess with far-reaching climatic implications.

Description: The North Atlantic (NA) basin-averaged sea surface temperature (NASST) is often used as an index to study climate variability in the NA sector. However, there is still some debate on what drives it. Based on observations and climate models, an analysis of the different influences on the NASST index and its low-pass filtered version, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) index, is provided. In particular, the relationships of the two indices with some of its mechanistic drivers including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated. In observations, the NASST index accounts for significant SST variability over the tropical and subpolar NA. The NASST index is shown to lump together SST variability originating from different mechanisms operating on different time scales. The AMO index emphasizes the subpolar SST variability. In the climate models, the SST-anomaly pattern associated with the NASST index is similar. The AMO index, however, only represents pronounced SST variability over the extratropical NA, and this variability is significantly linked to the AMOC. There is a sensitivity of this linkage to the cold NA SST bias observed in many climate models. Models suffering from a large cold bias exhibit a relatively weak linkage between the AMOC and AMO and vice versa. Finally, the basin-averaged SST in its unfiltered form, which has been used to question a strong influence of ocean dynamics on NA SST variability, mixes together multiple types of variability occurring on different time scales and therefore underemphasizes the role of ocean dynamics in the multidecadal variability of NA SSTs.

Description: Key Points: - Fluid flow is focused along Nootka Fault traces resulting in shallow bright spots - Two seafloor mounds are the result of basaltic intrusions in the Nootka Fault zone - Gas hydrates occur at the Nootka Slope and are imaged seismically as bottom- simulating reflectors suggesting a regional heat-flow of ~80 mW/m2 along the slope Abstract Geophysical and geochemical data indicate there is abundant fluid expulsion in the Nootka fault zone (NFZ) between the Juan de Fuca and Explorer plates and the Nootka continental slope. Here we combine observations from 〉 20 years of investigations to demonstrate the nature of fluid‐flow along the NFZ, which is the seismically most active region off Vancouver Island. Seismicity reaching down to the upper mantle is linked to near‐seafloor manifestation of fluid flow through a network of faults. Along the two main fault traces, seismic reflection data imaged bright spots 100 – 300 m below seafloor that lie above changes in basement topography. The bright spots are conformable to sediment layering, show opposite‐to‐seafloor reflection polarity, and are associated with frequency‐reduction and velocity push‐down indicating the presence of gas in the sediments. Two seafloor mounds ~15 km seaward of the Nootka slope are underlain by deep, non‐conformable high amplitude reflective zones. Measurements in the water column above one mound revealed a plume of warm water, and bottom‐video observations imaged hydrothermal vent system biota. Pore fluids from a core at this mound contain predominately microbial methane (C1) with a high proportion of ethane (C2) yielding C1/C2 ratios 〈 500 indicating a possible slight contribution from a deep source. We infer the reflective zones beneath the two mounds are basaltic intrusions that create hydrothermal circulation within the overlying sediments. Across the Nootka continental slope, gas hydrate related bottom‐simulating reflectors are widespread and occur at depths indicating heat‐flow values of 80 – 90 mW/m2.

Description: The distribution of dissolved silicon isotopes (δ30Si) was examined along the US GEOTRACES East Pacific Zonal Transect (GP16) extending from Peru to Tahiti (10°S and 15°S latitude). Surface waters in the subtropical gyre displayed high δ30Si due to strong utilization of silicic acid (DSi). In contrast, surface waters close to the Peruvian coast where upwelling prevailed were less depleted and only moderately fractionated. δ30Si of water masses along the transect were compared with the results of an Optimum Multiparameter Analysis that quantified the fractional contributions of endmember water masses in each sample. Strong admixture of intermediate waters obscured the expected heavy isotopic signatures of Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water. Isotope values were nearly homogenous below 2000 m (Average: +1.3 ± 0.1 ‰, 1 s.d.) despite the 25 μmol kg‐1 range in the DSi content among water masses. This homogeneity confirms prior observations and model results that predict nearly constant δ30Si values of +1.0 to +1.2 ‰ for Pacific deep waters with [DSi] 〉 100 μmol kg‐1. Waters above the East Pacific Rise (EPR) influenced by hydrothermal activity showed a small increase in [DSi] together with dissolved iron, but overall stations close to the EPR were slightly depleted in [DSi] (3 to 6 μmol kg‐1) with no significant shift in δ30Si compared to adjacent waters. Hydrothermal [DSi] appears to precipitate within the conduit of the EPR or upon contact with cold seawater resulting in a negligible influence of hydrothermal fluids on δ30Si in deep water. Key Points Surface waters have a large range in dissolved silicon isotopes covering nutrient‐rich coastal upwelling to oligotrophic waters Deep water masses with DSi concentrations 〉 100 μmol kg‐1 show homogenous silicon isotope signatures despite up to 25 μmol kg‐1 differences in [DSi] Hydrothermal fluids have a negligible effect on Si isotope distributions in the deep Pacific

Description: We simulate the two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, to assess the effects of melt‐induced fresh water on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We use a newly developed climate model with high resolution at the coasts, resolving the complex ocean dynamics. Our results show an AMOC recovery in simulations run with and without an included ice sheet model. We find that the ice sheet adds a strong decadal variability on the freshwater release, resulting in intervals in which it reduces the surface runoff by high accumulation rates. This compensating effect is missing in climate models without dynamic ice sheets. Therefore, we argue to assess those freshwater hosing experiments critically, which aim to parameterize Greenland's freshwater release. We assume the increasing net evaporation over the Atlantic and the resulting increase in ocean salinity, to be the main driver of the AMOC recovery.

Description: Acetone is one of the most abundant oxygenated volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmosphere. The oceans impose a strong control on atmospheric acetone, yet the oceanic fluxes of acetone remain poorly constrained. In this work, the global budget of acetone is evaluated using two global models: CAM‐chem and GEOS‐Chem. CAM‐chem uses an online air‐sea exchange framework to calculate the bidirectional oceanic acetone fluxes, which is coupled to a data‐oriented machine‐learning approach. The machine‐learning algorithm is trained using a global suite of seawater acetone measurements. GEOS‐Chem uses a fixed surface seawater concentration of acetone to calculate the oceanic fluxes. Both model simulations are compared to airborne observations from a recent global‐scale, multiseasonal campaign, the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). We find that both CAM‐chem and GEOS‐Chem capture the measured acetone vertical distributions in the remote atmosphere reasonably well. The combined observational and modeling analysis suggests that (i) the ocean strongly regulates the atmospheric budget of acetone. The tropical and subtropical oceans are mostly a net source of acetone, while the high‐latitude oceans are a net sink. (ii) CMIP6 anthropogenic emission inventory may underestimate acetone and/or its precursors in the Northern Hemisphere. (iii) The MEGAN biogenic emissions model may overestimate acetone and/or its precursors, and/or the biogenic oxidation mechanisms may overestimate the acetone yields. (iv) The models consistently overestimate acetone in the upper troposphere‐lower stratosphere over the Southern Ocean in austral winter. (v) Acetone contributes up to 30–40% of hydroxyl radical production in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere.

Description: What controls subduction megathrust seismogenesis downdip of the mantle wedge corner (MWC)? We propose that, in the region of the 2010 Mw=8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake, serpentine minerals derived from the base of the hydrated mantle wedge exert a dominant control. Based on modeling, we predict that the megathrust fault zone near the MWC contains abundant lizardite/chrysotile‐rich serpentinite that transforms to antigorite‐rich serpentinite at greater depths. From the MWC at 32–40 km depth to at least 55 km, the predominantly velocity‐strengthening megathrust accommodated dynamic propagation of the 2010 rupture but with small slip and negative stress drop. The downdip distribution of interplate aftershocks exhibits a gap around the MWC that can be explained by the velocity‐strengthening behavior of lizardite/chrysotile. Interspersed velocity‐weakening and dynamic weakening antigorite‐rich patches farther downdip may be responsible for increased abundance of aftershocks and possibly for some of the high‐frequency energy radiation during the 2010 rupture.

Description: Key Points: • Observational transport time series of the Atlantic Subtropical Cells reveals dominant seasonal variability for horizontal branches • On time scales longer than ~5 years, interior thermocline layer transport convergence modulates equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies • Western boundary current and interior transport anomalies are partly compensating each other at thermocline level on all time scales The shallow meridional overturning cells of the Atlantic Ocean, the subtropical cells (STCs), consist of poleward Ekman transport at the surface, subduction in the subtropics, equatorward flow at thermocline level and upwelling along the equator and at the eastern boundary. In this study, we provide the first observational estimate of transport variability associated with the horizontal branches of the Atlantic STCs in both hemispheres based on Argo float data and supplemented by reanalysis products. Thermocline layer transport convergence and surface layer transport divergence between 10°N and 10°S are dominated by seasonal variability. Meridional thermocline layer transport anomalies at the western boundary and in the interior basin are anti‐correlated and partially compensate each other at all resolved time scales. It is suggested that the seesaw‐like relation is forced by the large‐scale off‐equatorial wind stress changes through low‐baroclinic‐mode Rossby wave adjustment. We further show that anomalies of the thermocline layer interior transport convergence modulate sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the upwelling regions along the equator and at the eastern boundary at time scales longer than 5 years. Phases of weaker (stronger) interior transport are associated with phases of higher (lower) equatorial SST. At these time scales, STC transport variability is forced by off‐equatorial wind stress changes, especially by those in the southern hemisphere. At shorter time scales, equatorial SST anomalies are, instead, mainly forced by local changes of zonal wind stress.

Description: Stable oxygen isotope records from central Greenland suggest disproportionally large long‐term surface air temperature (SAT) variability during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) relative to preindustrial times. Large perturbations in mean atmospheric circulation and its variability forced by extensive Northern Hemisphere ice sheet coverage have been suggested as cause for the enhanced Greenland SAT variability. Here, we assess the factors driving Greenland SAT variability during the LGM by means of dedicated climate model simulations and find remote forcing from the Pacific of critical importance. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a multidecadal oscillation of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, strongly intensify under LGM conditions, driving enhanced surface wind variability over Greenland, which in turn amplifies SAT variability by anomalous atmospheric heat transport. A major role of the IPO in forcing Greenland SAT variability also is supported by a number of models from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase III

Description: Gravitationally consistent solutions of the Sea Level Equation from leakage‐corrected monthly‐mean GFZ RL06 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow‐On (GRACE‐FO) Stokes coefficients reveal that barystatic sea level averaged over the whole global ocean was rising by 1.72 mm a−1 during the period April 2002 until August 2016. This rate refers to a truely global ocean averaging domain that includes all polar and semienclosed seas. The result corresponds to 2.02 mm a−1 mean barystatic sea level rise in the open ocean with a 1,000 km coastal buffer zone as obtained from a direct spatial integration of monthly GRACE data. The bias of +0.3 mm a−1 is caused by below‐average barystatic sea level rise in close proximity to coastal mass losses induced by the smaller gravitational attraction of the remaining continental ice and water masses. Alternative spherical harmonics solutions from CSR, JPL, and TU Graz reveal open‐ocean rates between 1.94 and 2.08 mm a−1, thereby demonstrating that systematic differences among the processing centers are much reduced in the latest release. We introduce in this paper a new method to approximate spatial leakage from the differences of two differently filtered global gravity fields. A globally constant and time‐invariant scale factor required to obtain full leakage from those filter differences is found to be 3.9 for GFZ RL06 when filtered with DDK3, and lies between 3.9 and 4.4 for other processing centers. Spatial leakage is estimated for every month in terms of global grids, thereby providing also valuable information of intrabasin leakage that is potentially relevant for hydrologic and hydrometeorological applications.

Description: We use observations from novel biogeochemical profiling floats deployed by the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling program to estimate annual net community production (ANCP; associated with carbon export) from the seasonal drawdown of mesopelagic oxygen and surface nitrate in the Southern Ocean. Our estimates agree with previous observations in showing an increase in ANCP in the vicinity of the polar front (∼3 mol C m−2 y−1), compared to lower rates in the subtropical zone (≤ 1 mol C m−2 y−1) and the seasonal ice zone (〈2 mol C m−2 y−1). Paradoxically, the increase in ANCP south of the subtropical front is associated with elevated surface nitrate and silicate concentrations, but decreasing surface iron. We hypothesize that iron limitation promotes silicification in diatoms, which is evidenced by the low silicate to nitrate ratio of surface waters around the Antarctic polar front. High diatom silicification increases the ballasting effect of particulate organic carbon and overall ANCP in this region. A model-based assessment of our methods shows a good agreement between ANCP estimates based on oxygen and nitrate drawdown and the modeled downward organic carbon flux at 100 m. This agreement supports the presumption that net biological consumption is the dominant process affecting the drawdown of these chemical tracers and that, given sufficient data, ANCP can be inferred from observations of oxygen and/or nitrate drawdown in the Southern Ocean.

Description: An ocean iodine cycling model is presented, which predicts upper ocean iodine speciation. The model comprises a three-layer advective and diffusive ocean circulation model of the upper ocean, and an iodine cycling model embedded within this circulation. The two primary reservoirs of iodine are represented, iodide and iodate. Iodate is reduced to iodide in the mixed layer in association with primary production, linked by an iodine to carbon (I:C) ratio. A satisfactory model fit with observations cannot be obtained with a globally constant I:C ratio, and the best fit is obtained when the I:C ratio is dependent on sea surface temperature, increasing at low temperatures. Comparisons with observed iodide distributions show that the best model fit is obtained when oxidation of iodide back to iodate is associated with mixed layer nitrification. Sensitivity tests, where model parameters and processes are perturbed, reveal that primary productivity, mixed layer depth, oxidation, advection, surface fresh water flux and the I:C ratio all have a role in determining surface iodide concentrations, and the timescale of iodide in the mixed layer is sufficiently long for non-local processes to be important. Comparisons of the modelled iodide surface field with parameterisations by other authors shows good agreement in regions where observations exist, but significant differences in regions without observations. This raises the question of whether the existing parameterisations are capturing the full range of processes involved in determining surface iodide, and shows the urgent need for observations in regions where there are currently none.

Description: A site at the gas hydrate stability limit was investigated offshore northwestern Svalbard to study methane transport in sediment. The site was characterized by chemosynthetic communities (sulfur bacteria mats, tubeworms) and gas venting. Sediments were sampled with in‐situ porewater collectors and by gravity coring followed by analyses of porewater constituents, sediment and carbonate geochemistry, and microbial activity, taxonomy, and lipid biomarkers. Sulfide and alkalinity concentrations showed concentration maxima in near‐surface sediments at the bacterial mat and deeper maxima at the gas vent site. Sediments at the periphery of the chemosynthetic field were characterized by two sulfate‐methane transition zones (SMTZ) at ~204 and 45 cm depth, where activity maxima of microbial anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) with sulfate were found. Amplicon sequencing and lipid biomarker indicate that AOM at the SMTZs was mediated by ANME‐1 archaea. A 1D numerical transport reaction model suggests that the deeper SMTZ‐1 formed on centennial scale by vertical advection of methane, while the shallower SMTZ‐2 could only be reproduced by non‐vertical methane injections starting on decadal scale. Model results were supported by age distribution of authigenic carbonates, showing youngest carbonates within SMTZ‐2. We propose that non‐vertical methane injection was induced by increasing blockage of vertical transport or formation of sediment fractures. Our study further suggests that the methanotrophic response to the non‐vertical methane injection was commensurate with new methane supply. This finding provides new information about for the response time and efficiency of the benthic methane filter in environments with fluctuating methane transport.

Description: Ocean bottom pressure (OBP) variability serves as a proxy of ocean mass variability, the knowledge of which is needed in geophysical applications. The question of how well it can be modeled by the present general ocean circulation models on time scales in excess of 1 day is addressed here by comparing the simulated OBP variability with the observed one. To this end, a new multiyear data set is used, obtained with an array of bottom pressure gauges deployed deeply along a transect across the Southern Ocean. We present a brief description of OBP data and show large‐scale correlations over several thousand kilometers at all time scales using daily and monthly averaged data. Annual and semiannual cycles are weak. Close to the Agulhas Retroflection, signals of up to 30 cm equivalent water height are detected. Further south, signals are mostly intermittent and noisy. It is shown that the models simulate consistent patterns of bottom pressure variability on monthly and longer scales except for areas with high mesoscale eddy activity, where high resolution is needed to capture the variability due to eddies. Furthermore, despite good agreement in the amplitude of variability, the in situ and simulated OBP show only modest correlation.

Description: It is widely assumed that the ventilation of the Southern Ocean played a crucial role in driving glacial‐interglacial atmospheric CO2 levels. So far, however, ventilation records from the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean are widely missing. Here we present reconstructions of water residence times (depicted as ΔΔ14C and Δδ13C) for the last 32,000 years on sediment records from the Kerguelen Plateau and the Conrad Rise (~570‐ to 2,500‐m water depth), along with simulated changes in ocean stratification from a transient climate model experiment. Our data indicate that Circumpolar Deep Waters in the Indian Ocean were part of the glacial carbon pool. At our sites, close to or bathed by upwelling deep waters, we find two pulses of decreasing ΔΔ14C and δ13C values (~21–17 ka; ~15–12 ka). Both transient pulses precede a similar pattern in downstream intermediate waters in the tropical Indian Ocean as well as rising atmospheric CO2 values. These findings suggest that 14C‐depleted, CO2‐rich Circumpolar Deep Water from the Indian Ocean contributed to the rise in atmospheric CO2 during Heinrich Stadial 1 and also the Younger Dryas and that the southern Indian Ocean acted as a gateway for sequestered carbon to the atmosphere and tropical intermediate waters.

Description: Most arcs show systematic temporal and spatial variations in magmatism with clear shifts in igneous rock compositions between those of the magmatic front (MF) and those in the backarc (BA). It is unclear if similar magmatic polarity is seen for extensional continental arcs. Herein, we use geochemical and isotopic characteristics coupled with zircon U‐Pb geochronology to identify the different magmatic style of the Iran convergent margin, an extensional system that evolved over 100 Myr. Our new and compiled U‐Pb ages indicate that major magmatic episodes for the NE Iran BA occurred at 110–80, 75–50, 50–35, 35–20, and 15–10 Ma. In contrast to NE Iran BA magmatic episodes, compiled data from MF display two main magmatic episodes at 95–75 and 55–5 Ma, indicating more continuous magmatism for the MF than for the BA. We show that Paleogene Iran serves as a useful example of a continental arc under extension. Our data also suggest that there is not a clear relationship between the subduction velocity of Neotethyan Ocean beneath Iran and magmatic activity in Iran. Our results imply that the isotopic compositions of Iran BA igneous rocks do not directly correspond to the changes in tectonic processes or geodynamics, but other parameters such as the composition of lithosphere and melt source(s) should be considered. In addition, changes in subduction zone dynamics and contractional versus extensional tectonic regimes influenced the composition of MF and BA magmatic rocks. These controls diminished the geochemical and isotopic variations between the magmatic front and backarc.

Description: The South-East Madagascar Bloom, one of the most compelling biogeochemical features of the Indian Ocean, occurs sporadically during austral summer in the oligotrophic waters south-east of Madagascar, where it can cover up to 1% of the global ocean surface area. Its spatial extension and its timing are highly variable. A high-resolution biophysical model is used to investigate a previous hypothesis that the onset of a particular circulation of the South-East Madagascar Current advects fresher and nutrient-rich waters eastward, feeding the bloom. The model is able to reproduce an intermittent phytoplankton bloom with large spatial variability but in the subsurface layers, as well as the presence of an irregular retroflection of the South-East Madagascar Current. The simulated bloom occurs within a shallow stratified mixed layer, with fresher waters at the surface, parallel to the water mass in an observed bloom. The model results suggest, from a nutrient flux analysis, that horizontal advection of low-salinity nutrient-rich Madagascan coastal waters can indeed trigger a phytoplankton bloom. The coupled model is also able to resolve a bloom that is atmospherically forced by cyclonic activity.

Description: Key Points:  AUV mapping along the north rift identifies hummocky mounds with pillows, channelized, and inflated flows formed during the 2015 eruption.  Impulsive sounds formed by lava/seawater interaction track mound growth over a 28 day period with an average extrusion rate of 22-45 m3s-1.  The sounds record the history of flow advancement and inflation from multiple eruptive centers, and is used to infer volcanic activity style. Quantifying eruption dynamics in submarine environments is challenging. During the 2015 eruption of Axial Seamount, the formation of hummocky mounds along the north rift was accompanied by tens‐of‐thousands of impulsive acoustic signals generated by the interaction of lava and seawater. A catalog of these sounds was integrated with detailed seafloor mapping to better understand eruptive processes in time and space. Mounds grew over a period of 28 days with average extrusion rates of 22 to 45 m3s‐1. The most distant mounds, ~ 9.5 to 15.5 km down rift from the caldera, grew primarily over the first few days of the eruption. The focus of eruptive activity then retreated ~5 km toward the caldera where it was sustained. Mounds are constructed as a series of superimposed lobes formed through alternating periods of flow inflation, generating up to 30‐m‐thick hummocks, and periods of flow advancement, with 〈0.02 ms‐1 average speeds typically observed.

Description: Oceanic transform faults and fracture zones represent major bathymetric features that keep the records of past and present strike‐slip motion along conservative plate boundaries. Although they play an important role in ridge segmentation and evolution of the lithosphere, their structural characteristics, and their variation in space and time, are poorly understood. To address some of the unknowns, we conducted interdisciplinary geophysical studies in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, the region where some of the most prominent transform discontinuities have been developing. Here we present the results of the data analysis in the vicinity of the Chain Fracture Zone (FZ), on the South American Plate. The crustal structure across the Chain FZ, at the contact between ~10 and 24 Ma oceanic lithosphere, is sampled along seismic reflection and refraction profiles. We observe that the crustal thickness within and across the Chain FZ ranges from ~4.6‐5.9 km, which compares with the observations reported for slow‐slipping transform discontinuities globally. We attribute this presence of close to normal oceanic crustal thickness within fracture zones to the mechanism of lateral dike propagation, previously considered to be valid only in fast‐slipping environments. Furthermore, the combination of our results with other datasets enabled us to extend the observations to morpho‐tectonic characteristics on a regional scale. Our broader view suggests that the formation of the transverse ridge is closely associated with a global plate reorientation that was also responsible for the propagation and for shaping lower‐order Mid‐Atlantic Ridge segmentation around the equator.

Description: Neogloboquadrina pachyderma is the dominant species of planktonic foraminifera found in polar waters and is therefore invaluable for paleoceanographic studies of the high latitudes. However, the geochemistry of this species is complicated due to the development of a thick calcite crust in its final growth stage and at greater depths within the water column. We analyzed the in situ Mg/Ca and δ18O in discrete calcite zones using LA‐ICP‐MS, EPMA and SIMS within modern N. pachyderma shells from the highly dynamic Fram Strait and the seasonally isothermal/isohaline Irminger Sea. Here we compare shell geochemistry to the measured temperature, salinity and δ18Osw in which the shells calcified to better understand the controls on N. pachyderma geochemical heterogeneity. We present a relationship between Mg/Ca and temperature in N. pachyderma lamellar calcite that is significantly different than published equations for shells that contained both crust and lamellar calcite. We also document highly variable SIMS δ18O results (up to a 3.3‰ range in single shells) on plankton tow samples which we hypothesize is due to the granular texture of shell walls. Finally, we document that the δ18O of the crust and lamellar calcite of N. pachyderma from an isothermal/isohaline environment are indistinguishable from each other, indicating that shifts in N. pachyderma δ18O are primarily controlled by changes in environmental temperature and/or salinity rather than differences in the sensitivities of the two calcite types to environmental conditions.

Description: This study proposes a new process‐based framework to characterize and classify runoff events of various magnitudes occurring in a wide range of catchments. The framework uses dimensionless indicators that characterize space–time dynamics of precipitation events and their spatial interaction with antecedent catchment states, described as snow cover, distribution of frozen soils, and soil moisture content. A rigorous uncertainty analysis showed that the developed indicators are robust and regionally consistent. Relying on covariance‐ and ratio‐based indicators leads to reduced classification uncertainty compared to commonly used (event‐based) indicators based on absolute values of metrics such as duration, volume, and intensity of precipitation events. The event typology derived from the proposed framework is able to stratify events that exhibit distinct hydrograph dynamics even if streamflow is not directly used for classification. The derived typology is therefore able to capture first‐order controls of event runoff response in a wide variety of catchments. Application of this typology to about 180,000 runoff events observed in 392 German catchments revealed six distinct regions with homogeneous event type frequency that match well regions with similar behavior in terms of runoff response identified in Germany. The detected seasonal pattern of event type occurrence is regionally consistent and agrees well with the seasonality of hydroclimatic conditions. The proposed framework can be a useful tool for comparative analyses of regional differences and similarities of runoff generation processes at catchment scale and their possible spatial and temporal evolution.

Description: Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a strong greenhouse gas and an ozone depleting agent. In marine environments, N2O is produced biologically via ammonium oxidation, nitrite, and nitrate reduction. The relative importance of these principle production pathways is strongly influenced by oxygen availability. We conducted 15N tracer experiments of N2O production in parallel with measurements of N2O concentration and natural abundance isotopes/isotopomers in Saanich Inlet, a seasonally anoxic fjord, to investigate how temporal and vertical oxygen gradients regulate N2O production pathways and rates. In April, June, and August 2018, the depth of the oxic‐anoxic interface (dissolved oxygen = 2.5 μmol L−1 isoline) progressively deepened from 110 to 160 m. Within the oxygenated and suboxic water column, N2O supersaturation coincided with peak ammonium oxidation activity. Conditions in the anoxic deep water were potentially favorable to N2O production from nitrate and nitrite reduction, but N2O undersaturation was observed indicating that N2O consumption exceeded rates of production. In October, tidal mixing introduced oxygenated water from outside the inlet, displacing the suboxic and anoxic deep water. This oxygenation event stimulated N2O production from ammonium oxidation and increased water column N2O supersaturation while inhibiting nitrate and nitrite reduction to N2O. Results from 15N tracer incubation experiments and natural abundance isotopomer measurements both implicated ammonium oxidation as the dominant N2O production pathway in Saanich Inlet, fueled by high ammonium fluxes (0.6–3.5 nmol m−2 s−1) from the anoxic depths. Partial denitrification contributed little to water column N2O production because of low availability of nitrate and nitrite.

Description: In a widely‐held conception, the biological carbon pump (BCP) is equal to the export of organic matter out of the euphotic zone. Using global ocean‐atmosphere model experiments we show that the change in export production is a poor measure of the biological pump's feedback to the atmosphere. The change in global true oxygen utilization (TOU), an integrative measure of the imprint of the BCP on marine oxygen, however, is in good agreement with the net change in the biogenic air‐sea flux of oxygen. Since TOU correlates very well with apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) in our experiments, we propose to measure the change of AOU from data of global float programs to monitor the feedback of the BCP to the atmosphere. For the current ocean we estimate that BCP changes effect a CO2 uptake by the ocean in the range of 0.07 to 0.14 GtC/yr.

Description: Rapid increases in upper 700‐m Indian Ocean heat content (IOHC) since the 2000s have focused attention on its role during the recent global surface warming hiatus. Here, we use ocean model simulations to assess distinct multidecadal IOHC variations since the 1960s and explore the relative contributions from wind stress and buoyancy forcing regionally and with depth. Multidecadal wind forcing counteracted IOHC increases due to buoyancy forcing from the 1960s to the 1990s. Wind and buoyancy forcing contribute positively since the mid‐2000s, accounting for the drastic IOHC change. Distinct timing and structure of upper ocean temperature changes in the eastern and western Indian Ocean are linked to the pathway how multidecadal wind forcing associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is transmitted and affects IOHC through local and remote winds. Progressive shoaling of the equatorial thermocline—of importance for low‐frequency variations in Indian Ocean Dipole occurrence—appears to be dominated by multidecadal variations in wind forcing.

Description: The Svalbard margin represents one of the northernmost gas hydrate provinces worldwide. Vestnesa Ridge (VR) and Svyatogor Ridge (SR) west of Svalbard are two prominent sediment drifts showing abundant pockmarks and sites of seismic chimney structures. Some of these sites at VR are associated with active gas venting and were the focus of drilling and coring with the seafloor‐deployed MARUM‐MeBo70 rig. Understanding the nature of fluid migration and gas hydrate distribution requires (amongst other parameters) knowledge of the thermal regime and in situ gas and pore‐fluid composition. In situ temperature data were obtained downhole at a reference site at VR defining a geothermal gradient of ~78 mK m‐1 (heat flow ~95 mW m‐2). Additional heat‐probe data were obtained to describe the thermal regime of the pockmarks. The highest heat flow values were systematically seen within pockmark depressions and were uncorrelated to gas venting occurrences. Heat flow within pockmarks is typically ~20 mW m‐2 higher than outside pockmarks. Using the downhole temperature data and gas compositions from drilling we model the regional base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ). Thermal modeling including topographic effects suggest a BGHSZ up to 40 m deeper than estimated from seismic data. Uncertainties in sediment properties (velocity and thermal conductivity) are only partially explaining the mismatch. Capillary effects due to small sediment grain sizes may shift the free gas occurrence above the equilibrium BGHSZ. Changes in gas composition or pore fluid salinity at greater depth may also explain the discrepancy in observed and modeled BGHSZ.

Description: The neodymium (Nd) isotopic composition of seawater is a valuable tool for the reconstruction of past water mass provenance and hence deep water geometry. A meaningful interpretation of Nd isotope down‐core records requires knowledge of potential variations of water mass end member characteristics. While often assumed temporally constant, recent investigations revealed glacial‐interglacial variability of the northern and southern Nd isotope end members in the Atlantic. These new constraints have a strong influence on the interpretation of the Atlantic deep water mass evolution, yet the processes responsible for the end member shifts remain uncertain. Here we combine a new compilation of Atlantic Nd isotope reconstructions of the early Holocene with the Nd‐enabled Bern3D model to quantify the recently proposed hypothesis of a northern Nd isotope end member shift during the early Holocene. We achieve the best model‐data fit with a strong increase of the Nd flux in the northern high latitudes by a factor of 3 to 4, which lowers the northern end member signature by about 1 ε‐unit. Our findings thus agree with the rationale that glacially weathered material entered the northern Northwest Atlantic after the ice sheets retreated late in the deglaciation and released substantial amounts of unradiogenic Nd as suggested previously. Further, we find that variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) cannot reproduce the observed Nd isotope excursions of the compiled data, ruling out an early Holocene AMOC “overshoot.”

Description: Large amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, are stored in hydrates beneath the seafloor. Sea level changes can trigger massive methane release into the ocean. It is not clear, however, whether surficial seafloor processes can cause comparable discharge. Previously, fluid migration was difficult to study due to a lack of spatially dense seismic and thermal observations. Here we examine a gas hydrate site at Four‐Way‐Closure Ridge off SW Taiwan using a high‐resolution 3‐D seismic cube, together with bottom‐simulating reflections (BSRs) mapped in the cube, a thermal probe data set, and 3‐D thermal modeling results. We document, on a scale of tens of meters, the interaction between surficial sedimentary processes, fluid flow, and a dynamic gas hydrate system. Fluid migrates upward through dipping permeable strata in the limb, the slope basin, and along thrust faults and ridge‐top normal faults. The seismic data also reveal several double BSRs that underlie seabed sedimentary sliding and depositional features. Abrupt changes in subsurface pressure and temperature due to the rapid seabed sedimentary processes can cause a rapid shift of the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. This shift may be either downward or upward and would result in the accumulation or dissociation of hydrate in sediments sandwiched by the double BSRs, respectively. We propose that dynamic surficial processes on the seafloor together with shallow focused fluid flow affect hydrate distribution and saturation at depth and may even result in methane expulsion into the ocean if such localized features are common along convergent plate boundaries.

Description: Key points: • Detectable self-potential and deformation anomalies result from poroelastic responses of volcanicaquifers by subsurface pressurization • Self-potential amplitudes and their polarity are sensitive to magmatic stressing and pressure sourceorientation (dike vs. sill) • Our multi-physics approach provides new insights into pre-eruptive processe Pre‐eruptive electrical signals at active volcanoes are generally interpreted in terms of electrokinetic processes. Spatio‐temporal self‐potential (SP) signals can be caused by strain‐induced fluid flow in volcanic aquifers, however, previous studies lack the quantitative assessments of these phenomena and the underpinning poroelastic responses. Here we use Finite‐Element Analysis to study poroelastic responses induced by subsurface stressing from sill and dike sources by jointly solving for ground displacements, pore pressure and SP signals. We evaluate the influence of pressure source orientation on the poroelastic response in two different volcanic aquifers (pyroclastic and lava flow) to provide insights on emergent geodetic and SP signals and their sensitivity to governing parameters. Strain‐induced SP amplitudes deduced from a reference parameter set vary in both aquifer models and are of negative polarity (‐0.35 mV and ‐22.6 mV) for a pressurized dike and of positive polarity (+4 mV and +20 mV) for a pressurized sill. Importantly, we find uniquely different SP and ground displacement patterns from either sill or dike intrusions. Our study shows that SP signals are highly sensitive to the subsurface Young's modulus, streaming potential coupling coefficient and electrical conductivity of the poroelastic domains. For the set of parameters tested, the dike model predicts SP amplitudes of up to ‐947 mV which are broadly representative of recorded amplitudes from active volcanoes. Our study demonstrates that electrokinetic processes reflect magma‐induced stress and strain variations and highlights the potential of joint geodetic and SP studies to gain new insights on causes of volcanic unrest.

Description: The modern history of North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows variability coinciding with changes in air temperature and rainfall over the Northern Hemisphere. There is a debate about this variability and, in particular, whether it is internal to the ocean‐atmosphere system or is forced by external factors (natural and anthropogenic). Here we present a temperature record, obtained using the Sr/Ca ratio measured in a skeleton of a sclerosponge, that shows agreement with the instrumental record over the past 150 years as well as multidecadal temperature variability over the last 600 years. Comparison with climate simulations of the last millennium shows that large cooling events recorded, in the sclerosponge, are consistent with natural (primarily volcanic activity) and anthropogenic forcings. There are, however, multidecadal periods not connected to current estimates of external forcing over the last millennium allowing for alternative explanations, such as internally driven changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation.

Description: Ice nucleating particles (INPs) affect the radiative properties of cold clouds. Knowledge concerning their concentration above ground level and their potential sources is scarce. Here we present the first highly temperature resolved ice nucleation spectra of airborne samples from an aircraft campaign during late winter in 2018. Most INP spectra featured low concentration levels (〈3 · 10−4 L−1 at −15°C). However, we also found INP concentrations of up to 1.8·10−2 L−1 at −15°C and freezing onsets as high as −7.5°C for samples mainly from the marine boundary layer. Shape and onset temperature of the ice nucleation spectra of those samples as well as heat sensitivity hint at biogenic INP. Colocated measurements additionally indicate a local marine influence rather than long-range transport. Our results suggest that even in late winter above 80°N a local marine source for biogenic INP, which can efficiently nucleate ice at high temperatures, is present.

Description: MILAN was a multidisciplinary, international study examining how the diel variability of sea-surface microlayer biogeochemical properties potentially impacts ocean-atmosphere interaction, in order to improve our understanding of this globally important process. The sea-surface microlayer (SML) at the air-sea interface is 〈 1 mm deep but it is physically, chemically and biologically distinct from the underlying water and the atmosphere above. Wind-driven turbulence and solar radiation are important drivers of SML physical and biogeochemical properties. Given that the SML is involved in all ocean-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy, its response to solar radiation, especially in relation to how it regulates the air-sea exchange of climate-relevant gases and aerosols, is surprisingly poorly characterised. MILAN (sea-surface MIcroLAyer at Night) was an international, multidisciplinary campaign designed to specifically address this issue. In spring 2017, we deployed diverse sampling platforms (research vessels, radio-controlled catamaran, free-drifting buoy) to study full diel cycles in the coastal North Sea SML and in underlying water, and installed a land-based aerosol sampler. We also carried out concurrent ex situ experiments using several microsensors, a laboratory gas exchange tank, a solar simulator, and a sea spray simulation chamber. In this paper we outline the diversity of approaches employed and some initial results obtained during MILAN. Our observations of diel SML variability, e.g. the influence of changing solar radiation on the quantity and quality of organic material, and diel changes in wind intensity primarily forcing air-sea CO2 exchange, underline the value and the need of multidisciplinary campaigns for integrating SML complexity into the context of air-sea interaction.

Description: The Calabrian subduction zone is one of the narrowest arcs on Earth and a key area to understand the geodynamic evolution of the Mediterranean and other marginal seas. Here in the Ionian Sea, the African plate subducts beneath Eurasia. Imaging the boundary between the downgoing slab and the upper plate along the Calabrian subduction zone is important for assessing the potential of the subduction zone to generate mega‐thrust earthquakes and was the main objective of this study. Here we present and analyze the results from a 380 km long, wide‐angle seismic profile spanning the complete subduction zone, from the deep Ionian Basin and the accretionary wedge to NE Sicily, with additional constraints offered by 3‐D Gravity modeling and the analysis of earthquake hypocenters. The velocity model for the wide‐angle seismic profile images thin oceanic crust throughout the basin. The Calabrian backstop extends underneath the accretionary wedge to about 100 km SE of the coast. The seismic model was extended in depth using earthquake hypocenters. The combined results indicate that the slab dip increases abruptly from 2‐3° to 60‐70° over a distance of ≤50 km underneath the Calabrian backstop. This abrupt steepening is likely related to the roll‐back geodynamic evolution of the narrow Calabrian slab which shows great similarity to the shallow and deep geometry of the Gibraltar slab.

Description: A method using a linear shallow water model is presented for decomposing the temporal variability of the barotropic streamfunction in a high‐resolution ocean model. The method is based in the vertically‐averaged momentum equations and is applied to the time series of annual mean streamfunction from the model configuration VIKING20 for the northern North Atlantic. An important result is the role played by the nonlinear advection terms in VIKING20 for driving transport. The method is illustrated by examining how the Gulf Stream transport in the recirculation region responds to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While no statistically significant response is found in the year overlapping with the winter NAO index, there is a tendency for the Gulf Stream transport to increase as the NAO becomes more positive. This becomes significant in lead years 1 and 2 when the mean flow advection (MFA) and eddy momentum flux (EMF) contributions, associated with nonlinear momentum advection, dominate. Only after 2 years, does the potential energy (PE) term, associated with the density field, start to play a role and it is only after 5 years that the transport dependence on the NAO ceases to be significant. It is also shown that the PE contribution to the transport streamfunction has significant memory of up to 5 years in the Labrador and Irminger Seas. However, it is only around the northern rim of these seas that VIKING20 and the transport reconstruction exhibit similar memory. This is due to masking by the MFA and EMF contributions.

Description: Mineral dust plays an important role in the atmospheric radiation budget as well as in the ocean carbon cycle through fertilization and by ballasting of settling organic matter. However, observational records of open‐ocean dust deposition are sparse. Here, we present the spatial and temporal evolution of Saharan dust deposition over 2 years from marine sediment traps across the North Atlantic, directly below the core of the Saharan dust plume, with highest dust fluxes observed in summer. We combined the observed deposition fluxes with model simulations and satellite observations and argue that dust deposition in the Atlantic is predominantly controlled by summer rains. The dominant depositional pathway changes from wet deposition in summer to dry deposition in winter. Wet deposition has previously been suggested to increase the release of dust‐derived nutrients and their bioavailability, which may be a key contributor to surface‐ocean productivity in remote and oligotrophic parts of the oceans.

Description: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) represents the zonally integrated stream function of meridional volume transport in the Atlantic Basin. The AMOC plays an important role in transporting heat meridionally in the climate system. Observations suggest a heat transport by the AMOC of 1.3 PW at 26°N—a latitude which is close to where the Atlantic northward heat transport is thought to reach its maximum. This shapes the climate of the North Atlantic region as we know it today. In recent years there has been significant progress both in our ability to observe the AMOC in nature and to simulate it in numerical models. Most previous modeling investigations of the AMOC and its impact on climate have relied on models with horizontal resolution that does not resolve ocean mesoscale eddies and the dynamics of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current system. As a result of recent increases in computing power, models are now being run that are able to represent mesoscale ocean dynamics and the circulation features that rely on them. The aim of this review is to describe new insights into the AMOC provided by high-resolution models. Furthermore, we will describe how high-resolution model simulations can help resolve outstanding challenges in our understanding of the AMOC.

Description: Equatorial deep jets (EDJ) are vertically stacked, downward propagating zonal currents that alternate in direction with depth. In the tropical Atlantic, they have been shown to influence both surface conditions and tracer variability. Despite their importance, the EDJ are absent in most ocean models. Here we show that EDJ can be generated in an idealized ocean model when the model is driven only by the convergence of the meridional flux of intraseasonal zonal momentum diagnosed from a companion model run driven by steady wind forcing, corroborating the recent theory that intraseasonal momentum flux convergence maintains the EDJ. Additionally, the EDJ in our model nonlinearly generate mean zonal currents at intermediate depths that show similarities in structure to the observed circulation in the deep equatorial Atlantic, indicating their importance for simulating the tropical ocean mean state.

Description: Mesoscale eddies can be strengthened by the absorption of submesoscale eddies resulting from mixed-layer baroclinic instabilities. This is shown for mesoscale eddies in the Agulhas Current system by investigating the kinetic energy cascade with a spectral and a coarse-graining approach in two model simulations of the Agulhas region. One simulation resolves mixed-layer baroclinic instabilities and one does not. When mixed-layer baroclinic instabilities are included, the largest submesoscale near-surface fluxes occur in winter-time in regions of strong mesoscale activity for upscale as well as downscale directions. The forward cascade at the smallest resolved scales occurs mainly in frontogenetic regions in the upper 30 m of the water column. In the Agulhas ring path, the forward cascade changes to an inverse cascade at a typical scale of mixed-layer eddies (15 km). At the same scale, the largest sources of the upscale flux occur. After the winter, the maximum of the upscale flux shifts to larger scales. Depending on the region, the kinetic energy reaches the mesoscales in spring or early summer aligned with the maximum of mesoscale kinetic energy. This indicates the importance of submesoscale flows for the mesoscale seasonal cycle. A case study shows that the underlying process is the mesoscale absorption of mixed-layer eddies. When mixed-layer baroclinic instabilities are not included in the simulation, the open-ocean upscale cascade in the Agulhas ring path is almost absent. This contributes to a 20 %-reduction of surface kinetic energy at mesoscales larger than 100 km when submesoscale dynamics are not resolved by the model.

Description: The Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ca. 56 Ma) is marked by a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE) and increased global temperatures. The CIE is thought to result from the release of 13C‐depleted carbon, although the source(s) of carbon and triggers for its release, its rate of release, and the mechanisms by which the Earth system recovered are all debated. Many of the proposed mechanisms for the onset and recovery phases of the PETM make testable predictions about the marine silica cycle, making silicon isotope records a promising tool to address open questions about the PETM. We analyzed silicon isotope ratios (δ30Si) in radiolarian tests and sponge spicules from the Western North Atlantic (ODP Site 1051) across the PETM. Radiolarian δ30Si decreases by 0.6‰ from a background of 1‰ coeval with the CIE, while sponge δ30Si remains consistent at 0.2‰. Using a box model to test the Si cycle response to various scenarios, we find the data are best explained by a weak silicate weathering feedback, implying the recovery was mostly driven by nondiatom organic carbon burial, the other major long‐term carbon sink. We find no resolvable evidence for a volcanic trigger for carbon release, or for a change in regional oceanography. Better understanding of radiolarian Si isotope fractionation and more Si isotope records spanning the PETM are needed to confirm the global validity of these conclusions, but they highlight how the coupling between the silica and carbon cycles can be exploited to yield insight into the functioning of the Earth system.

Description: Mediterranean tectonics since the Lower Cretaceous has been characterized by a multi‐phase subduction and collision history with temporally and spatially‐variable, small‐scale plate configurations. A new shear‐wave velocity model of the Mediterranean upper mantle (MeRE2020), constrained by a very large set of over 200,000 broadband (8‐350 s), inter‐station, Rayleigh‐wave, phase‐velocity curves, illuminates the complex structure and fragmentation of the subducting slabs. Phase‐velocity maps computed using these measurements were inverted for depth‐dependent, shear‐wave velocities using a stochastic particle‐swarm‐optimization algorithm (PSO). The resulting three‐dimensional (3‐D) model makes possible an inventory of slab segments across the Mediterranean. Fourteen slab segments of 200‐800 km length along‐strike are identified. We distinguish three categories of subducted slabs: attached slabs reaching down to the bottom of the model; shallow slabs of shorter length in down‐dip direction, terminating shallower than 300 km depth; and detached slab segments. The location of slab segments are consistent with and validated by the intermediate‐depth seismicity, where it is present. The new high‐resolution tomography demonstrates the intricate relationships between slab fragmentation and the evolution of the relatively small and highly curved subduction zones and collisional orogens characteristic of the Mediterranean realm.

Description: The major part of dissolved iron (DFe) in seawater is bound to organic matter, which prevents iron from adsorptive removal by sinking particles and essentially regulates the residence time of DFe and its availability for marine biota. Characteristics of iron‐binding ligands highly depend on their biological origin and physico‐chemical properties of seawater which may intensely alter under ongoing climate change. To understand environmental controls on the iron binding, we applied a function of pH and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to describe changes in the binding strength of organic ligands in a global biogeochemical model (REcoM). This function was derived based on calculations using a thermodynamic chemical speciation model NICA. This parameterization considerably improved the modeled DFe distribution, particularly in the surface Pacific and the global mesopelagic and deep waters, compared to our previous model simulations with a constant ligand or one prognostic ligand. This indicates that the organic binding of iron is apparently controlled by seawater pH in addition to its link to organic matter. We tested further the response of this control to environmental changes in a simulation with future pH of a high emission scenario. The response of the binding potential shows a complex pattern in different regions and is regulated by factors that have opposite effects on the binding potential. The relative contributions of these factors can change over time by a continual change of environmental conditions. A dynamic feedback system therefore needs to be considered to predict the marine iron cycle under ongoing climate change.

Description: Long‐term predictability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is commonly attributed to buoyancy‐forced changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here we investigate the role of surface wind stress forcing in decadal hindcasts as another source of extratropical North Atlantic SST predictability. For this purpose, a global climate model is forced by reanalysis (ERA‐interim) wind stress anomalies over the period 1979–2017. The simulated climate states serve as initial conditions for decadal hindcasts. Significant skill in predicting detrended observed annual SST anomalies is observed over the extratropical central North Atlantic with anomaly correlation coefficients exceeding 0.6 at lead times of 4 to 7 yrs. The skill is insensitive to the calendar month of initialization and primarily linked to upper ocean heat content anomalies that lead anomalous SSTs by several years.

Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, i.e. “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU)”, for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178 ~ 457 m depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e. AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.

Description: While phytoplankton play a key role in ocean biogeochemical cycles, the availability and supply pathways of resources that support their growth remain poorly constrained. Here, we show that the availability of various resources varies over several orders of magnitude throughout the Atlantic Ocean, causing regional contrasts in resource deficiency. Regional variations in the relative availability of nitrogen, phosphorous, silicon, iron, zinc, manganese, cobalt, and cadmium are important and result from the contrasts between winter mixing depths and differences in vertical profiles of the different resources. The winter-time thickening of the mixed layer may replenish or deplete resources via entrainment, depending on the vertical nutrient profile. For nutrients like nitrate, phosphate, and cadmium, entrainment is a consistent source term. While for others, such as manganese and iron, entrainment can reduce ocean resource availability, particularly in subtropical regions. Any future change to the depth of winter-time mixing will cause region-specific changes in relative availability of different resources that may have important ecological consequences.

Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.

Description: The past provides evidence of abrupt climate shifts and changes in the frequency of climate and weather extremes. We explore the non‐linear response to orbital forcing and then consider climate millennial variability down to daily weather events. Orbital changes are translated into regional responses in temperature, where the precessional response is related to nonlinearities and seasonal biases in the system. We question regularities found in climate events by analyzing the distribution of inter‐event waiting times. Periodicities of about 900 and 1150 years are found in ice cores besides the prominent 1500‐years cycle. However, the variability remains indistinguishable from a random process, suggesting that centennial‐to‐millennial variability is stochastic in nature. New numerical techniques are developed allowing for a high resolution in the dynamically relevant regions like coasts, major upwelling regions, and high latitudes. Using this model, we find a strong sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depending on where the deglacial meltwater is injected into. Meltwater into the Mississippi and near Labrador hardly affect the large‐scale ocean circulation, whereas subpolar hosing mimicking icebergs yields a quasi shutdown. The same multi‐scale approach is applied to radiocarbon simulations enabling a dynamical interpretation of marine sediment cores. Finally, abrupt climate events also have counterparts in the recent climate records, revealing a close link between climate variability, the statistics of North Atlantic weather patterns, and extreme events.

Description: The structure, transport, and seasonal variability of the West Greenland boundary current system near Cape Farewell are investigated using a high-resolution mooring array deployed from 2014 to 2018. The boundary current system is comprised of three components: the West Greenland Coastal Current, which advects cold and fresh Upper Polar Water (UPW); the West Greenland Current, which transports warm and salty Irminger Water (IW) along the upper slope and UPW at the surface; and the Deep Western Boundary Current, which advects dense overflow waters. Labrador Sea Water (LSW) is prevalent at the seaward side of the array within an offshore recirculation gyre and at the base of the West Greenland Current. The 4-yr mean transport of the full boundary current system is 31.1 ± 7.4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s-1), with no clear seasonal signal. However, the individual water mass components exhibit seasonal cycles in hydrographic properties and transport. LSW penetrates the boundary current locally, through entrainment/mixing from the adjacent re-circulation gyre, and also enters the current upstream in the Irminger Sea. IW is modified through air–sea interaction during winter along the length of its trajectory around the Irminger Sea, which converts some of the water to LSW. This, together with the seasonal increase in LSW entering the current, results in an anticorrelation in transport between these two water masses. The seasonality in UPW transport can be explained by remote wind forcing and subsequent adjustment via coastal trapped waves. Our results provide the first quantitatively robust observational description of the boundary current in the eastern Labrador Sea.

Description: Key Points In Kongsfjorden, an Arctic glacier fjord, freshwater from glacier runoff and ice meltwater decreases phosphate, alkalinity and DOM concentrations Estuarine mixing is the major driver of summer CO2 undersaturation in glacially modified waters and near‐corrosive conditions were observed Future changes will amplify ocean acidification in the inner‐fjord surface waters Abstract A detailed survey of a high Arctic glacier fjord (Kongsfjorden, Svalbard) was carried out in summer 2016, close to the peak of the meltwater season, in order to identify the effects of glacier runoff on nutrient distributions and the carbonate system. Short‐term weather patterns were found to exert a strong influence on freshwater content within the fjord. Freshwater inputs from glacier runoff and ice meltwater averaged (±SD) low nitrate (1.85±0.47 μM; 0.41±0.99 μM), orthophosphate (0.07±0.27 μM; 0.02 ±0.03 μM), dissolved organic carbon (27 ±14 μM in glacier runoff), total alkalinity (708±251 μmol kg‐1; 173±121 μmol kg‐1) and dissolved inorganic carbon (622±108 μmol kg‐1; 41±88 μmol kg‐1), as well as a modest silicate concentration (3.71±0.02 μM; 3.16±5.41 μM). pCO2 showed a non‐conservative behavior across the estuarine salinity gradient with a pronounced under‐saturation in the inner‐fjord, leading to strong CO2 uptake from the atmosphere. The combined effect of freshwater dilution and atmospheric CO2 absorption was the lowering of aragonite saturation state, to values that are known to negatively affect marine calcifiers (ΩAr, 1.07). Glacier discharge was therefore a strong local amplifier of ocean acidification. Future increases in discharge volume and the loss of marine productivity following the retreat of marine‐terminating glaciers inland are both anticipated to further lower ΩAr within inner‐fjord surface waters. This shift may be partially buffered by an increase in the mean freshwater total alkalinity as the fractional importance of iceberg melt to freshwater fjord inputs declines and runoff increases.

Description: Key Points: • Antarctic meltwater forcing induces an overall global cooling but regional warming in East Asia • Antarctic meltwater forcing can shift the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward and suppress convection over the Western North Pacific • Suppressed convection in the Western North Pacific is responsible for the regional warming of East Asia via atmospheric teleconnection. In recent decades, Antarctic ice sheet/shelf melting has been accelerated, releasing freshwater into the Southern Ocean. It has been suggested that the meltwater flux could lead to cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, which would retard global warming and further induce a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In this study, we use experimental ensemble climate simulations to show that Antarctic meltwater forcing has distinct regional climate impacts over the globe, leading in particular to regional warming in East Asia, which offsets the global cooling effect by the meltwater forcing. It is suggested that Antarctic meltwater forcing leads to a negative precipitation anomaly in the Western North Pacific (WNP) via cooling in the tropics and the northward shift of the ITCZ. This suppressed convection in WNP induces an anticyclonic flow over the North Pacific, which leads to regional warming in East Asia. This hypothesis is supported by analyses of interensemble spread and long-term control simulations.

Description: The importance of volcanic CO2 release, continental weathering, and coral reef growth on the global carbon cycle has been highlighted by several different studies. Based on these independent approaches, we here revisit the last 800 kyr with the box model BICYCLE, which has been extended to be able to address these solid Earth contributions to the carbon cycle. We show that the volcanic outgassing of CO2 as a function of sea level change from mid‐ocean ridges and hot spot island volcanoes cannot be the generic process that leads during phases of falling obliquity to a sea level‐CO2 decoupling as has been suggested before. The combined contribution from continental and marine volcanism, if both lagging sea level change by 4 kyr, might have added up to 13 ppm to the glacial/interglacial CO2 rise. Coral reef growth as suggested by an independent model is during glacial terminations about an order of magnitude too high to be reconciled with meaningful carbon cycle dynamics. Global riverine input of bicarbonate caused by silicate and carbonate weathering is suggested to have been stable over Termination I. However, if weathering fluxes are changed by up to 50% in sensitivity experiments, the corresponding bicarbonate input might contribute less than 20 ppm to the deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise. The overall agreement of results with the new process‐based sediment module and the previously applied time‐delayed response function to mimic carbonate compensation gives confidence in the results obtained in previous applications of the BICYCLE model without solid Earth processes.

Description: Loess sediments are windblown silt deposits with, in general, a carbonate grain content of up to 30%. While regionally, loess was reported to increase weathering fluxes substantially, the influence on global weathering fluxes remains unknown. Especially on glacial‐interglacial time scales, loess weathering fluxes might have contributed to land‐ocean alkalinity flux variability since the loess areal extent during glacial epochs was larger. To quantify loess weathering fluxes, global maps representing the loess distribution were compiled. Water chemistry of rivers draining recent loess deposits suggests that loess contributes over‐proportionally to alkalinity concentrations if compared to the mean of alkalinity concentrations of global rivers (~4,110 µeq L−1 for rivers draining loess deposits and ~1,850 µeq L−1 for the total of global rivers), showing comparable alkalinity concentration patterns in rivers as found for carbonate sedimentary rocks. Loess deposits, covering ~4% of the ice‐ and water‐free land area, increase calculated global alkalinity fluxes to the coastal zone by 16%. The new calculations lead to estimating a 4% higher global alkalinity flux during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to present fluxes. The effect of loess on that comparison is high. Alkalinity fluxes from silicate‐dominated lithological classes were ~28% and ~30% lower during the LGM than recent (with loess and without loess, respectively), and elevated alkalinity fluxes from loess deposits compensated for this. Enhanced loess weathering dampens due to a legacy effect changes in silicate‐dominated lithologies over the glacial‐interglacial time scale.

Description: We investigate the synoptic precursors to the Harmattan wind and dust frontogenesis during the high impact Saharan dust outbreak over the Cape Verde Islands on 13 November 2017. We employ multiscale observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model Coupled with Chemistry simulations. The analyses indicate that the dust storm was initiated on the lee side of the Saharan Atlas Mountains (SAM) in Algeria on 10 November 2017. This dust storm was associated with a double Rossby wave break linked through nonlinear wave reflection. Two successive Rossby wave breaks contributed to the wave amplification over the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean which transported large magnitude potential vorticity air into the North African continent. The resulting coupled pressure surge was associated with cold air advected equatorward over the SAM which organized the strong near-surface wind that ablated the dust. The simulation results indicate that the dust front was initially related to a density current-like cold front which formed due to the downslope transport of cold airflow over the SAM and then triggered undular bores on the lee side. Each bore perturbed the dust loading and then the subsequent diurnal heating generated differential planetary boundary layer turbulence kinetic energy strengthening the dust frontogenesis. Dust became confined behind the cold surge and interacted with the daytime Saharan planetary boundary layer leading to increased dust loading, while the dust front propagated equatorward. Two distinct dust plumes arrived successively at low levels at Mindelo, Cape Verde Islands: (1) from the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal and (2) from the SAM southern flank.

Description: Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m−2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m−2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds. Key Points: - An assessment of multiple lines of evidence supported by a conceptual model provides ranges for aerosol radiative forcing of climate change - Aerosol effective radiative forcing is assessed to be between -1.6 and -0.6 W m−2 at the 16–84% confidence level - Although key uncertainties remain, new ways of using observations provide stronger constraints for models

Description: As part of the Earth4All project, collaborators have submitted this paper to delve further into the steps to be taken to widely transform our conventional agricultural system to provide food security and improve ecological resilience in a rapidly changing global climate. This article analyses the potential positive effects on soil ecology and crop yield of a global-scale transition to regenerative agriculture, while also considering social spreading dynamics that determine the adoption of such practices by farmers. The authors argue that the transition to a global regenerative agricultural system cannot be achieved without considering the deeper societal processes driving the effective dissemination and adoption of the change. Furthermore, the surrounding factors and conditions such as farmers’ political and institutional embeddedness, public opinion, the economic situation and the climate conditions they face within their region or community, as potential barriers hindering the transition, have to be taken into account. Therefore, it is not only the farmers’ responsibility to drive the change but also the politicians, institutions, companies and individual actors’ one which, all together, will support such transition processes.

Description: The transition from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene was accompanied by major tectonic reorganizations of key oceanic gateways. In particular, the gradual closure of the Panama Gateway and the constriction of the Indonesian Gateway significantly affected the structure of the Pacific thermocline. In the East Pacific, the thermocline shoaled from an early Pliocene El Niño‐like depth to its modern state, which had significant implications for global climate. Here we use Mg/Ca temperature estimates from subsurface and thermocline dwelling foraminifera to reconstruct the meridional Plio‐Pleistocene evolution of the Southeast Pacific thermocline, in relation to atmospheric circulation changes. In combination with similar reconstructions from the north‐equatorial Pacific, our data indicate a change in the thermocline, responding to the northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone/South Pacific High system between ~3.8 and 3.5 Ma. After 3.5 Ma, we record a second major phase of thermocline shoaling, which points to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/South Pacific High‐system movement toward its modern position along with the gradual cooling of the Northern Hemisphere and its associated glaciation. These findings highlight that a warming globe may affect equatorial regions more intensively due to the potential temperature‐driven movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone/South Pacific High and their associated oceanic systems.

Description: The isotopic composition of Si in biogenic silica (BSi), such as opal buried in the oceans' sediments, has changed over time. Paleorecords suggest that the isotopic composition, described in terms of δ30Si, was generally much lower during glacial times than today. There is consensus that this variability is attributable to differing environmental conditions at the respective time of BSi production and sedimentation. The detailed links between environmental conditions and the isotopic composition of BSi in the sediments remain, however, poorly constrained. In this study, we explore the effects of a suite of offset boundary conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) on the isotopic composition of BSi archived in sediments in an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). Our model results suggest that a change in the isotopic composition of Si supply to the glacial ocean is sufficient to explain the observed overall low(er) glacial δ30Si in BSi. All other processes explored trigger model responses of either wrong sign or magnitude or are inconsistent with a recent estimate of bottom water oxygenation in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean. Caveats, mainly associated with generic uncertainties in today's pelagic biogeochemical modules, remain.

Description: Um die ambitionierten Klimaschutzziele zu erreichen, braucht Deutschland effektive Instrumente und Maßnahmen auf nationaler, bundesstaatlicher und kommunaler Ebene. Der Erfolg dieser Politik wird maßgeblich davon abhängen, ob es gelingt, eine breite gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz und Unterstützung für diese Maßnahmen auf den entsprechenden Ebenen zu erreichen. Die Haltung der Bevölkerung wird jedoch in der Regel auf nationaler Ebene über Umfragen gemessen, die geographische Unterschiede dabei auf den subnationalen Ebenen außer Acht lassen. Im Rahmen dieser Analyse schätzen wir die durchschnittliche Bevölkerungszustimmung zu 26 Klimaschutzmaßnahmen in den Sektoren Wärme, Transport und Energie auf Bundesland-, Landkreis- und kommunaler Ebene zwischen 2017 und 2021 mittels eines mehrstufigen Regressions- und Poststratifizierungsmodells. Die Schätzungen basieren auf zwei bundesweit repräsentativen Panel-Umfragen, dem Sozialen Nachhaltigkeitsbarometer und dem Ariadne Wärme-& Wohnen-Panel. Durch die Analyse werden erhebliche regionale Unterschiede in der Zustimmung von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen in der deutschen Bevölkerung sichtbar. Die Befürwortung einzelner Klimaschutzmaßnahmen variiert teilweise um bis zu 60 Prozentpunkte zwischen den untersuchten geographischen Einheiten. In der Gesamtbetrachtung der räumlichen Disparitäten zeichnen sich bedeutsame Unterschiede zwischen Stadt- und Landbevölkerung sowie West- und Ostdeutschland ab. Im zeitlichen Verlauf haben sich dabei die Einstellungen gegenüber einzelnen Maßnahmen, wie beispielsweise dem Ausbau von Wind- und Solarkraftanlagen, angenähert, während die öffentliche Meinung zu anderen energiepolitischen Instrumenten, wie dem Kohleausstieg, im Laufe der Jahre polarisieren. Mittels einer zusätzlich durchgeführten räumlichen Panelanalyse können wir zudem zeigen, dass sich die Veränderungen von bestimmten Kontextfaktoren auf die Zustimmung von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen auf kommunaler Ebene auswirken. So finden wir einen positiven Zusammenhang zwischen der Befürwortung des Ausbaus von Wind- und Solarkraftanlagen und dem tatsächlichen Zubau an Solar- und Windkapazitäten in diesen Regionen. Ferner wird die Haltung gegenüber klimapolitischen Maßnahmen stark von räumlichen Diffusionseffekten, d.h. der Ausbreitung von Einstellungen im sozialen Umfeld, bestimmt, wie der Einfluss von Meinungsänderungen in einer Region auf deren Nachbarregionen veranschaulicht. Die in diesem Bericht und auf dem interaktiven Online-Dashboard zur Verfügung gestellten Schätzungen der Zustimmung zu Klimaschutzmaßnahmen, stellen eine wichtige Informationsgrundlage für politische Entscheidungsträger:innen dar, um den gesellschaftlichen Herausforderungen bei der Umsetzung von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen effektiv zu begegnen. Alle generierten Daten sind im Online-Dashboard „Lokale Klimaschutzeinstellungen in Deutschland“ unter https://hertie-school-ariadne.shinyapps.io/LocalAttitudesDashboard/ einsehbar.

Description: Die Kommission hat ihr “Fit For 55” Paket vorgelegt, welches das 55%-Reduktionsziel für 2030 wie folgt auf die Sektoren aufteilt: Die Sektoren im bestehenden EU-Emissionshandelssystem (ETS), also hauptsächlich Strom und Industrie, sollen ihre Emissionen um 61% gegenüber 2005 mindern. Alle anderen Sektoren fallen unter die Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) und sollen ihre Emissionen um 40% gegenüber 2005 mindern. In diesem Papier analysieren wir die notwendigen CO2-Preise zur Zielerreichung unter der Annahme, dass eine Bepreisung von CO2 das einzige Instrument der Emissionsminderung ist. Werden weitere Politikinstrumente eingesetzt, zum Beispiel Technologiestandards, dann können zwar die CO2-Preise abgesenkt und die Verteilung der Vermeidungskosten auf Haushalte und Unternehmen verändert werden; jedoch kann das Niveau der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Vermeidungskosten nur dann vermindert werden, wenn die zusätzlichen Politikinstrumente bestehende Marktversagen verringern und dabei nicht mehr neue Ineffizienzen schaffen. Die notwendigen CO2-Preise im Jahre 2030 erreichen dabei 275 EUR/t in den ESR-Sektoren (Bandbreite: 210-405 EUR/t). Diese Preise sind mehr als doppelt so hoch wie die für das ETS-Ziel notwendigen CO2-Preise (130 EUR/t, Bandbreite 95-210 EUR/t). Allerdings wird die Höhe der notwendigen CO2-Preise maßgeblich davon beeinflusst, a) wie die Emissionsminderungen zwischen ETS und ESR aufgeteilt werden, b) wie schnell der Markthochlauf emissionsfreier Technologien – insbesondere der Elektromobilität – realisiert wird und wie schnell Wind- und Solarstrom ausgebaut, sowie die notwendigen Flexibilitäten im Stromsystem durch Netzausbau, Speicher und Lastmanagement bereitgestellt werden können. Für den Fall, dass der ETS 50% der zusätzlichen Minderungen des ESR übernimmt, gleichen sich beide Preise stark an: 190 EUR/t im ETS und 195 EUR/t in der ESR. Für die Politikinstrumente ergeben sich zwei Schlussfolgerungen: Ein höherer Vermeidungsbeitrag der ETS-Sektoren könnte die CO2-Preise angleichen, und somit das 2030-Ziel kostengünstiger erreichen. Allerdings könnte eine solche Aufteilung auch zu sehr hohen ESR-CO2-Preisen zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt führen, falls kurzfristig niedrigere CO2-Preise in den ESR-Sektoren den Markthochlauf emissionsfreier Technologien ausbremsen. Dies wird aber nur dann der Fall sein, wenn der langfristige Pfad der CO2-Preise von den Investoren als nicht glaubwürdig wahrgenommen wird. Die Kostenersparnisse hängen sowohl von den Erwartungen der Investoren als auch davon ab, welche zusätzlichen Maßnahmen noch auf europäischer und nationaler Ebene implementiert werden, die die Glaubwürdigkeit der langfristigen Zielerreichung stärken. Die große Bandbreite der notwendigen CO2-Preise je nach Annahmen zum Markthochlauf zeigt die Bedeutung von komplementärem Infrastrukturausbau und Technologiepolitik. So könnten beispielsweise der Ausbau der Ladeinfrastruktur und Investitionsanreize den Markthochlauf emissionsfreier Technologien fördern. Solche Maßnahmen – wie sie auch im Fit-for-55 Paket der EU Kommision vorgesehen sind – können bestehende Marktversagen korrigieren und so den notwendigen CO2-Preis senken sowie die Sicherheit der Klimazielerreichung erhöhen. Allerdings gehen diese Maßnahmen oftmals mit versteckten Kosten einher, und ein sozialer Ausgleich ist zudem schwerer möglich, da keine Einnahmen aus der CO2-Bepreisung zur Verfügung stehen.

Description: Dieses Kurzdossier analysiert die Auswirkungen der Energiekrise auf die Transformation des deutschen Energiesystems zur Klimaneutralität 2045 sowie Strategien zur Beseitigung der Abhängigkeit Deutschlands von russischen Erdgasimporten.

Description: Wie schon 2021 hat der Gebäudesektor auch im vergangenen Jahr die erlaubten Emissionen gemäß Bundes-Klimaschutzgesetz überschritten. Die Fernwärme kann einen Beitrag leisten, um die Trendwende hin zur angestrebten Klimaneutralität zu schaffen. Klar ist aber auch, dass die Wärmenetze der Zukunft deutlich flexibler und effizienter werden müssen, etwa um aus erneuerbaren Quellen oder Abwärme von Rechenzentren gewonnene Wärme nutzen zu können. Angesichts der hohen Lebensdauer der Wärmenetze von etwa 50 bis 60 Jahren ist ein Umbau dieser Netze auf die Erfordernisse der Wärmewende besonders kritisch. Allerding müssen für eine erfolgreiche Anpassung verschiedene Ebenen ineinandergreifen: Die kommunale Wärmewende, die Transformation der Netze sowie die Digitalisierung der Verbrauchsmessungen. Ergebnis der Ariadne-Analyse ist, dass für die erforderlichen Umrüstungen der Netze ein massives Finanzierungsproblem besteht. So bleiben Fernwärmenetzbetreiber auf etwa 90% der Investitionskosten sitzen. Durch eine Nahverdichtung der Fernwärmeanschlüsse könnten die Kosten verringert werden. Weiterhin bietet die Nachrüstung der Wärmezähler für die Fernauslesbarkeit bis Ende 2026 die Möglichkeit, Maßnahmen zu kombinieren, etwa den Austausch der Hausstation und den hydraulischen Abgleich. Eine koordinierte Einbeziehung der handelnden Akteure könnte daher zur Trendwende im Wärmesektor beitragen.

Description: Die Dekarbonisierung des Verkehrs- und Stromsystems ist ein weitreichender Transformationsprozess, der erhebliche Veränderungen für die Menschen mit sich bringt. Er kann nur als gesamtgesellschaftliche Aufgabe gelingen, die aus Betroffenen Beteiligte macht und Interessen sowie Vorstellungen von Bürgerinnen und Bürgern berücksichtigt. Wirksame Beteiligung im Forschungs- und Politikprozess sind bei der Verkehrs- und Stromwende deshalb unabdingbar. Unterschiedliche Formate, wie Befragungen und Deliberation erlauben es, die Einstellungen aus einem Querschnitt der Gesellschaft zu Politikoptionen zu untersuchen und Betroffene somit an der Entwicklung dieser partizipieren zu lassen. In dieser Analyse untersuchen wir in zwei parallel durchgeführten Befragungen im Rahmen der Ariadne Bürgerdeliberation und einer repräsentativen Panelbefragung die Haltung der Bürger:innen gegenüber verschiedenen Politikoptionen in den Bereichen Verkehr und Strom. Das Ziel war hierbei durch die vergleichende Betrachtung besser zu verstehen, welche Optionen gesellschaftlich mitgetragen werden (und welche nicht) und aus welchen Gründen. Die Verbindung beider Zugänge bietet eine umfassende Perspektive auf die gesellschaftliche Trägerschaft der Energie- und Verkehrswende. Die Bürgerinnen und Bürger sprachen sich in beiden Bereichen – Strom und Verkehr – für möglichst gerechte und effektive politische Optionen aus. Die Mehrheit der Befragten ist bereit, Veränderungen mitzutragen, wenn gewährleistet wird, dass alle Menschen und vulnerable Gruppen Zugang zu bezahlbarer Mobilität und Energieversorgung haben. Dies spiegelt sich in der Wahrnehmung von Stärken der verschiedenen Optionen und dem Wunsch, das Beste aus den Welten und Pfaden zu kombinieren. Für die Energie- und Verkehrswende insgesamt zeigen die Bürger:innensichten die Wichtigkeit einer Politik auf, die sich sowohl an sozialen als auch ökologischen Auswirkungen orientiert. Der klimafreundliche Umbau des Energiesystems wird von einer breiten gesellschaftlichen Mehrheit in Deutschland getragen und die Menschen sind bereit, sich bei der Umsetzung aktiv zu engagieren. Bei der Frage der Art der Gestaltung wird von den 2 Bürger:innen mehrheitlich eine dezentrale Energieversorgungsstruktur bevorzugt. Damit sind jedoch sowohl Hoffnungen als auch Sorgen verbunden. In der Verkehrswende ist den Menschen eine faire Teilhabe an Mobilität wichtig, dass also die verschiedenen Mobilitätsbedürfnisse diverser gesellschaftlicher Gruppen berücksichtigt werden. Neben der sozialen Gerechtigkeit spielt in der Verkehrswende auch die Klimawirkung – also die Effektivität von Maßnahmen – eine zentrale Rolle für die gesellschaftliche Trägerschaft. Trotz verbleibendem Diskussionsbedarf der beteiligten Bürger:innen zu konkreten Umsetzungsfragen zeigen die Ergebnisse die Bereitschaft sich mit den Auswirkungen politischer Optionen auseinanderzusetzen und dadurch Wandel nicht primär als Bedrohung und Sorge, sondern als Chance auf ein inklusiveres und attraktiveres Zusammenleben zu sehen. Eine Voraussetzung für einen wissenschaftlich informierten Lernprozess ist, das Wissen zu Politikoptionen und deren Auswirkungen für die breite Gesellschaft zugänglich und erfahrbar zu machen. Sowohl wissenschaftlich fundierte Informationsangebote als auch verständigungsorientierte Diskussionen sind effektive Formate, um dies zu ermöglichen. Letztlich lebt auch dieser Lernprozess von der Bereitschaft eigene Annahmen zu hinterfragen und sich für neue bzw. andere Argumente zu öffnen, die einem bisher als wenig relevant oder kaum nachvollziehbar erschienen. Zudem unterstreicht diese Analyse, dass in wissenschaftlich gut informierten Prozessen Bürger:innensichten eine wertvolle Ressource und Chance für eine besser gesellschaftlich abgestimmte und damit tragfähigere Klimapolitik darstellen. Aus Bürger:innensicht sollten diverse Wertvorstellungen, Bedürfnisse und Interessen bei der Umsetzung der Transformationen Eingang finden. Deswegen braucht es nach Meinung der Autorinnen und Autoren dieser Analyse einen Weg, wie die Politik über diese informiert wird – eine vielversprechende Möglichkeit hierfür ist die Befähigung von Bürger:innen zur politischen Mitbestimmung durch ein möglichst heterogenes Spektrum an Beteiligungsformen. Aus dieser Sicht stellt der Einbezug von Bürger:innensichten eine Chance für eine tragfähigere, an den Bedürfnissen der Bürger:innen orientierte

Description: Eine kohärente Klimaaußenpolitik (KAP) Deutschlands ist essentiell für das Gelingen sowohl der nationalen und europäischen Energiewende als auch für die effektive Unterstützung ambitionierter Klimapolitik außerhalb der Europäischen Union. Ziel dieses Ariadne- Hintergrundpapiers ist es, einen Diskussionsbeitrag zur Strukturierung der Debatte um die Eckpunkte und Optionen zur Ausarbeitung und Weiterentwicklung der deutschen KAP-Strategie zu leisten. Dazu werden vier Kategorien relevanter Ziele unterschieden. Diese reichen von klassischen klimapolitischen Zielen über industriepolitische sowie sicherheits- und handelspolitische Ziele hin zu breiteren außenpolitischen Zielen. Für jedes Ziel müssen entsprechende Mittel identifiziert werden, mit denen es erreicht werden kann, und Barrieren, die ihm im Weg stehen und entsprechend bedacht werden müssen. Für die Charakterisierung und Analyse verschiedener Mittel werden fünf Kategorien vorgeschlagen. Eine zentrale, aber in der Bewertung konzeptionell und empirisch herausfordernde Kategorie ist dabei das Transformationspotenzial einer Maßnahme. Im Fall von Zielkonflikten und begrenzten Ressourcen müssen Ziele priorisiert werden. Wir skizzieren dafür einen analytischen Rahmen und diskutieren illustrativ mögliche Optionen zur strategischen Gesamtausrichtung. Diese umfassen zum einen KAP-Gesamtstrategien von Staaten gegenüber allen anderen Ländern, und zum anderen Strategien für spezifische Staaten (z.B. die deutsche Strategie für den Umgang mit Indien oder Südafrika). Dabei können Strategien in einem Kontinuum von maximaler Priorisierung von Klimazielen (Klimapolitik First) bis hin zur nachrangigen Behandlung (Klimapolitik als Mittel zum Zweck) verortet und entsprechend ausgestaltet werden. Neben den Inhalten der Strategie werden Fragen der Organisation und Koordination in der Entwicklung und Implementierung der KAP-Strategie in den Blick genommen und die nächsten Schritte diskutiert. Eine erfolgreiche KAP-Strategie sollte dabei von Beginn an zwischen zentralen Stakeholdern im In- und Ausland in jeweils geeigneten Formaten erarbeitet, implementiert und im Sinne eines Lernprozesses fortlaufend angepasst werden. Eine KAP sollte sich in die breitere Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik Deutschlands einfügen, da relevante Politikfelder auf verschiedenen Ebenen eng miteinander verbunden sind. Bei der Erarbeitung der neuen KAP-Strategie der Bundesregierung sollte dazu insbesondere auf Kohärenz zur deutschen Sicherheits- und der Chinastrategie geachtet werden. 2 Grundlage der Strategieentwicklung ist die Klärung möglicher Ziele und Mittel der deutschen KAP und ihrer Wechselwirkungen miteinander. Eine KAP-Strategie muss durch Analysen zu Umsetzbarkeit und Kosten, politischen Wi-derständen und Zielkonflikten informiert sein und die normativen Vorgaben der deut-schen Außenpolitik berücksichtigen.