ALBERT

Description: A unique automated planetary boundary layer (PBL) retrieval algorithm is proposed as a common cross-platform method for use with commercially available ceilometers for implementation under the redesigned U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations program. This algorithm addresses instrument signal quality and screens for precipitation and cloud layers before the implementation of the retrieval methodology using the Haar wavelet covariance transform method. Layer attribution for the PBL height is supported with the use of continuation and time-tracking parameters, and uncertainties are calculated for individual PBL height retrievals. Commercial ceilometer retrievals are tested against radiosonde PBL height and cloud-base height during morning and late afternoon transition times, critical to air quality model prediction and when retrieval algorithms struggle to identify PBL heights. A total of 58 radiosonde profiles were used and retrievals for nocturnal stable layers, residual layers and mixing layers were assessed. Overall good agreement was found for all comparisons with one system showing limitations for the cases of nighttime surface stable layers and daytime mixing layer. It is recommended that nighttime shallow stable layer retrievals be performed with a recommended minimum height or with additional verification. Retrievals of residual layer heights and mixing layer comparisons revealed overall good correlations to radiosonde heights (correlation coefficients, r2, ranging from 0.89 – 0.96 and bias ranging from ~ -131 to +63 m, and r2 from 0.88 – 0.97 and bias from -119 to +101 m, respectively).

Description: No Abstract available.

Description: Summary On 24th August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm/s2 on E-W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broadband seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al. (2016). The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broadband synthetic time series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC-18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.

Description: The dynamic origin of the interannual variability of West China autumn rainfall (WCAR), a special weather/climate phenomenon over western-central China in September and October, was investigated via observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Here we found that the interannual variability of WCAR is closely related to the local horizontal trough, which is passively induced by two lower-level anticyclonic (high pressure) anomalies over East Asia. The anticyclonic anomaly over the south is a Gill-type response to the central and eastern Pacific diabatic cooling, while that over the north is part of the mid- to high-latitude barotropic Rossby wave train, which could be induced by either the thermal forcing of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) cooling or that of the subtropical northern Atlantic Ocean SST warming. The quasi-barotropic high pressure anomaly over East Asia acts as an “invisible mountain” that steers the low-level anomalous southwesterly into a southeasterly and hinders the water vapor going farther to the north, leading to enhanced WCAR. However, the real mountain ranges in the region (the Qinglin and Ba Mountains) have no essential impact on the formation and interannual variability of WCAR.

Description: Summer monsoon rainfall supplies over 55% of annual precipitation to global monsoon regions. As shown by more than 70% of models, including 30 models from CMIP5 and 30 models from CMIP6 under high-emission scenarios, North American (NAM) monsoon rainfall decreases in a warmer climate, in sharp contrast to the robust increase in Asian-African monsoon rainfall. A hierarchy of model experiments are analyzed to understand the mechanism for the reduced NAM monsoon rainfall in this study. Modeling evidence shows that the reduction of NAM monsoon rainfall is related to both direct radiative forcing of increased CO2 concentration and SST warming, manifested as fast and slow responses to abrupt CO2 quadrupling in CGCMs. A cyclone anomaly forms over the Eurasian-African continent due to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast under increased CO2 concentration, and this leads to a subsidence anomaly on its western flank, suppressing the NAM monsoon rainfall. The SST warming acts to further reduce the rainfall over the NAM monsoon region, and the El Niño-like SST warming pattern with enhanced SST warming over the equatorial Pacific plays a key role in suppressing NAM rainfall, whereas relative cooling over the subtropical North Atlantic has no contribution. A positive feedback between monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation helps to amplify the responses of monsoon rainfall.

Description: The assimilation of L-band surface brightness temperature (Tb) into the land surface model (LSM) component of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system is generally expected to improve the quality of summertime 2-m air temperature (T2m) forecasts during water-limited surface conditions. However, recent retrospective results from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest that the assimilation of L-band Tb from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission may, under certain circumstances, degrade the accuracy of growing-season 24-h T2m forecasts within the central United States. To diagnose the source of this degradation, we evaluate ECMWF soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) forecasts using both in situ and remote sensing resources. Results demonstrate that the assimilation of SMOS Tb broadly improves the ECMWF SM analysis in the central United States while simultaneously degrading the quality of 24-h ET forecasts. Based on a recently derived map of true global SM–ET coupling and a synthetic fraternal twin data assimilation experiment, we argue that the spatial and temporal characteristics of ECMWF SM analyses and ET forecast errors are consistent with the hypothesis that the ECMWF LSM overcouples SM and ET and, as a result, is unable to effectively convert an improved SM analysis into enhanced ET and T2m forecasts. We demonstrate that this overcoupling is likely linked to the systematic underestimation of root-zone soil water storage capacity by LSMs within the U.S. Corn Belt region.

Description: Recent advances in global ocean prediction systems are fostered by the needs of accurate representation of mesoscale processes. The day-by-day realistic representation of its variability is hampered by the scarcity of observations as well as the capability of assimilation systems to correct the ocean states at the same scale. This work extends a 3dvar system designed for oceanic applications, to cope with global eddy-resolving grid and dense observational datasets in a hybridly parallelized environment. The efficiency of the parallelization is assessed in term of both scalability and accuracy. The scalability is favoured by a weak-constrained formulation of the continuity requirement among the artificial boundaries implied by the domain decomposition. The formulation forces possible boundary discontinuities to be less than a prescribed error, and minimizes the parallel communication compared to standard methods. Theoretically, the exact solution is recovered by decreasing the boundary error towards zero. Practically, it is shown that the accuracy increases until a lower bound arises, due to the presence of the mesh and the finite accuracy of the minimizer. A twin experiment has been set up to estimate the benefit of employing an eddy-resolving grid within the assimilation step compared to an eddy-permitting one, while keeping the eddy-resolving grid within the forecast step. It is shown that the use of coarser grid for data assimilation does not allow an optimal exploitation of the present remote sensing observation network. A global decrease of about 15% in the error statistics is found when assimilating dense surface observations, while no significant improvement is seen for sparser observations (insitu profilers).

Description: Heat stress caused by high air temperature and high humidity is a serious health concern for urban residents. Mobile measurement of these two parameters can complement weather station observations because of its ability to capture data at fine spatial scales and in places where people live and work. In this paper, we describe a smart temperature and humidity sensor (Smart-T) for use on bicycles to characterize intracity variations in human thermal conditions. The sensor has several key characteristics of internet of things (IoT) technology, including lightweight, low cost, low power consumption, ability to communicate and geolocate the data (via the cyclist’s smartphone), and the potential to be deployed in large quantities. The sensor has a reproducibility of 0.03°–0.05°C for temperature and of 0.18%–0.33% for relative humidity (one standard deviation of variation among multiple units). The time constant with a complete radiation shelter and moving at a normal cycling speed is 9.7 and 18.5 s for temperature and humidity, respectively, corresponding to a spatial resolution of 40 and 70 m. Measurements were made with the sensor on street transects in Nanjing, China. Results show that increasing vegetation fraction causes reduction in both air temperature and absolute humidity and that increasing impervious surface fraction has the opposite effect.

Description: Buoy observations from a 1999 Gulf of Mexico field program (GOM99) are used to investigate the relationships among friction velocity u*, wind speed U, and amount of swell present. A U–u*sea parameterization is developed for the case of pure wind sea (denoted by u*sea), which is linear in U over the range of available winds (2–16 m s−1). The curve shows no sign of an inflection point near 7–8 m s−1 as suggested in a 2012 paper by Andreas et al. on the basis of a transition from smooth to rough flow. When observations containing more than minimal swell energy are included, a different U–u* equation for U 〈 8 m s−1 is found, which would intersect the pure wind-sea curve about 7–8 m s−1. These two relationships yield a bilinear curve similar to Andreas et al. with an apparent inflection near 7–8 m s−1. The absence of the inflection in the GOM99 experiment pure wind-sea curve and the similarity of the GOM99 swell-dominated low wind speed to Andreas et al.’s low wind speed relationship suggest that the inflection may be due to the effect of swell and not a flow transition. Swell heights in the range of only 25–50 cm may be sufficient to impact stress at low wind speeds.

Description: Concentrated poleward flows near the eastern boundaries between 2- and 4-km depth have been observed repeatedly, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. These deep eastern boundary currents (DEBCs) play an important role in setting the large-scale tracer distribution and have nonnegligible contribution to global transports of mass, heat, and tracers, but their dynamics are not well understood. In this paper, we first demonstrate the significant role of DEBCs in the southeastern Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, using the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) data assimilating product, and using high-resolution regional general circulation model configurations. The vorticity balances of these DEBCs reveal that, over most of the width of such currents, they are in an interior-like vorticity budget, with the meridional advection of planetary vorticity βυ and vortex stretching fwz being the largest two terms, and with contributions of nonlinearity and friction that are of smaller spatial scale. The stretching is shown, using a temperature budget, to be largely forced by resolved or parameterized eddy temperature transport. Strongly decaying signals from the eastern boundary in friction and stretching form the dominant balance in a sublayer close to the eastern boundary. The temporal variability of DEBCs is then examined, to help to interpret observations that tend to be sporadic in both time and space. The probability distribution functions of northward velocity in DEBC regions are broad, implying that flow reversals are common. Although the regions of the simulated DEBCs are generally local minima of eddy kinetic energy, they are still constantly releasing westward-propagating Rossby waves.

Description: Summary We explore here the benefits of using constraints from seismic tomography in gravity data inversion and how inverted density distributions can be improved by doing so. The methodology is applied to a real field case in which we reconstruct the density structure of the Pyrenees along a southwest-northeast transect going from the Ebro basin in Spain to the Arzacq basin in France. We recover the distribution of densities by inverting gravity anomalies under constraints coming from seismic tomography. We initiate the inversion from a prior density model obtained by scaling a pre-existing compressional seismic velocity Vp model using a Nafe-Drake relationship : the Vp model resulting from a full-waveform inversion of teleseismic data. Gravity data inversions enforce structural similarities between Vp and density by minimizing the norm of the cross-gradient between the density and Vp models. We also compare models obtained from 2.5D and 3D inversions. Our results demonstrate that structural constraints allow us to better recover the density contrasts close to the surface and at depth, without degrading the gravity data misfit. The final density model provides valuable information on the geological structures and on the thermal state and composition of the western region of the Pyrenean lithosphere.

Description: Summary The relatively short duration of the early stages of subduction results in a poor geological record, limiting our understanding of this critical stage. Here, we utilize a 2D numerical model of incipient subduction, that is the stage after a plate margin has formed with a slab tip that extends to a shallow depth and address the conditions under which subduction continues or fails. We assess energy budgets during the evolution from incipient subduction to either a failed or successful state, showing how the growth of potential energy, and slab pull, is resisted by the viscous dissipation within the lithosphere and the mantle. The role of rheology is also investigated, as deformation mechanisms operating in the crust and mantle facilitate subduction. In all models, the onset of subduction is characterized by high lithospheric viscous dissipation and low convergence velocities, whilst successful subduction sees the mantle become the main area of viscous dissipation. In contrast, failed subduction is defined by the lithospheric viscous dissipation exceeding the lithospheric potential energy release rate and velocities tend towards zero. We show that development of a subduction zone depends on the convergence rate, required to overcome thermal diffusion and to localise deformation along the margin. The results propose a minimum convergence rate of ∼ 0.5 cm yr−1 is required to reach a successful state, with 100 km of convergence over 20 Myr, emphasizing the critical role of the incipient stage.

Description: Summary Although many studies have revealed that the atmospheric effects of electromagnetic wave propagation (including ionospheric and tropospheric water vapor) have serious impacts on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurement results, atmospheric corrections have not been thoroughly and comprehensively investigated in many well-known cases of InSAR focal mechanism solutions, which means there is no consensus on whether atmospheric effects will affect the InSAR focal mechanism solution. Moreover, there is a lack of quantitative assessment on how much the atmospheric effect affects the InSAR focal mechanism solution. In this paper, we emphasized that it was particularly important to assess the impact of InSAR ionospheric and tropospheric corrections on the underground nuclear explosion modeling quantitatively. Therefore, we investigated the 4th North Korea (NKT-4) underground nuclear test using ALOS-2 liters-band SAR images. Because the process of the underground nuclear explosion was similar to the volcanic magma source activity, we modeled the ground displacement using the Mogi model. Both the ionospheric and tropospheric phase delays in the interferograms were investigated. Furthermore, we studied how the ionosphere and troposphere phase delays could bias the estimation of Mogi source parameters. The following conclusions were drawn from our case study: The ionospheric delay correction effectively mitigated the long-scale phase ramp in the full-frame interferogram, the standard deviation decreased from 1.83 cm to 0.85 cm compared to the uncorrected interferogram. The uncorrected estimations of yield and depth were 8.44 kt and 370.33 m, respectively. Compared to the uncorrected estimations, the ionospheric correction increased the estimation of yield and depth to 9.43 kt and 385.48 m while the tropospheric correction slightly raised them to 8.78 kt and 377.24 m. There were no obvious differences in the location estimations among the four interferograms. When both corrections were applied, the overall standard deviation was 1.16 cm, which was even larger than the ionospheric corrected interferogram. We reported the source characteristics of NKT-4 based on the modeling results derived from the ionospheric corrected interferogram. The preferred estimation of NKT-4 was a Mogi source located at 129°04′22.35‘E, 41°17′54.57″N buried at 385.48 m depth. The cavity radius caused by the underground explosion was 22.02 m. We reported the yield estimation to be 9.43 kt. This study showed that for large-scale natural deformation sources such as volcanoes and earthquakes, atmospheric corrections would be more significant, but even if the atmospheric signal did not have much complexity, the corrections should not be ignored.

Description: Global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have begun to resolve the mesoscale k−5/3 range of the energy spectrum, which is known to impose an inherently finite range of deterministic predictability per se as errors develop more rapidly on these scales than on the larger scales. However, the dynamics of these errors under the influence of the synoptic-scale k−3 range is little studied. Within a perfect-model context, the present work examines the error growth behavior under such a hybrid spectrum in Lorenz’s original model of 1969, and in a series of identical-twin perturbation experiments using an idealized two-dimensional barotropic turbulence model at a range of resolutions. With the typical resolution of today’s global NWP ensembles, error growth remains largely uniform across scales. The theoretically expected fast error growth characteristic of a k−5/3 spectrum is seen to be largely suppressed in the first decade of the mesoscale range by the synoptic-scale k−3 range. However, it emerges once models become fully able to resolve features on something like a 20-km scale, which corresponds to a grid resolution on the order of a few kilometers.

Description: SUMMARY Self-consistent modelling of magmatic systems is challenging as the melt continuously changes its chemical composition upon crystallization, which may affect the mechanical behaviour of the system. Melt extraction and subsequent crystallization create new rocks while depleting the source region. As the chemistry of the source rocks changes locally due to melt extraction, new calculations of the stable phase assemblages are required to track the rock evolution and the accompanied change in density. As a consequence, a large number of isochemical sections of stable phase assemblages are required to study the evolution of magmatic systems in detail. As the state-of-the-art melting diagrams may depend on nine oxides as well as pressure and temperature, this is a 10-D computational problem. Since computing a single isochemical section (as a function of pressure and temperature) may take several hours, computing new sections of stable phase assemblages during an ongoing geodynamic simulation is currently computationally intractable. One strategy to avoid this problem is to pre-compute these stable phase assemblages and to create a comprehensive database as a hyperdimensional phase diagram, which contains all bulk compositions that may emerge during petro-thermomechanical simulations. Establishing such a database would require repeating geodynamic simulations many times while collecting all requested compositions that may occur during a typical simulation and continuously updating the database until no additional compositions are required. Here, we describe an alternative method that is better suited for implementation on large-scale parallel computers. Our method uses the entries of an existing preliminary database to estimate future required chemical compositions. Bulk compositions are determined within boundaries that are defined manually or through principal component analysis in a parameter space consisting of clustered database entries. We have implemented both methods within a massively parallel computational framework while utilizing the Gibbs free energy minimization program Perple_X. Results show that our autonomous approach increases the resolution of the thermodynamic database in compositional regions that are most likely required for geodynamic models of magmatic systems.

Description: Dust is the major aerosol type over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and the TP plays an important role in forming the spring dust belt across the Northern Hemisphere in the upper troposphere. Estimated spring dust mass flux (DMF) showed a significant declining trend over the TP during 2007–19. The total spring DMF across the TP (TDMFTP) was mainly affected by DMFs over the Tarim Basin, while the spring DMF across the TP in the midtroposphere was also connected with DMFs over the northwest Indian Peninsula and central Asia. Interannual variability of spring TDMFTP was strongly correlated with the North Atlantic winter sea surface temperature (SST) tripole. A cold preceding winter induced by the North Atlantic winter SST tripole over midlatitude Eurasia promotes dust activities in the subsequent spring. The North Atlantic winter SST tripole anomalies persist into the subsequent spring and induce a corresponding atmosphere response. Enhanced atmospheric baroclinicity develops over northwest China and the northern Indian Peninsula during spring, which is attributed to surface thermal forcing induced by the positive winter SST tripole phase. A strong positive North Atlantic winter SST tripole anomaly strengthens the upper-level westerly jets, enhancing airflow toward the TP midtroposphere; together, these circulation patterns cause anomalous cyclonic conditions in the lower troposphere, especially over the Tarim Basin, via the eastward propagation of a Rossby wave train. These atmospheric circulation conditions are likely to increase the frequency of dust occurrence and promote the transport of dust onto the TP.

Description: Transformation of refractory cratonic mantle into more fertile lithologies is the key to the fate of cratonic lithosphere. This process has been extensively studied in the eastern North China Craton (NCC) while that of its western part is still poorly constrained. A comprehensive study of newly-found pyroxenite xenoliths from the Langshan area, in the northwestern part of this craton is integrated with a regional synthesis of pyroxenite and peridotite xenoliths to constrain the petrogenesis of the pyroxenites and provide an overview of the processes involved in the modification of the deep lithosphere. The Langshan pyroxenites are of two types, high-Mg# [Mg2+/(Mg2++Fe2+)*100 = ∼ 90, atomic ratios] olivine-bearing websterites with high equilibration temperatures (880 ∼ 970 oC), and low-Mg# (70 ∼ 80) plagioclase-bearing websterites with low equilibration temperatures (550 ∼ 835 oC). The high-Mg# pyroxenites show trade-off abundances of olivine and orthopyroxene, highly depleted bulk Sr-Nd (ƐNd = +11.41, 87Sr/86Sr = ∼0.7034) and low clinopyroxene Sr isotopic ratios (mean 87Sr/86Sr = ∼0.703). They are considered to reflect the reaction of mantle peridotites with silica-rich silicate melts derived from the convective mantle. Their depletion in fusible components (e.g., FeO, TiO2 and Na2O) and progressive exhaustion of incompatible elements suggest melt extraction after their formation. The low-Mg# pyroxenites display layered structures, convex-upward rare earth element patterns, moderately enriched bulk Sr-Nd isotopic ratios (ƐNd = -14.20 ∼ -16.74, 87Sr/86Sr = 0.7070 ∼ 0.7078) and variable clinopyroxene Sr-isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr = 0.706-0.711). They are interpreted to be crustal cumulates from hypersthene-normative melts generated by interaction between the asthenosphere and heterogeneous lithospheric mantle. Combined with studies on regional peridotite xenoliths, it is shown that the thinning and refertilization of the lithospheric mantle was accompanied by crustal rejuvenation and that such processes occurred ubiquitously in the northwestern part of the NCC. A geodynamic model is proposed for the evolution of the deep lithosphere, which includes long-term mass transfer through a mantle wedge into the deep crust from the Paleozoic to the Cenozoic, triggered by subduction of the Paleo-Asian ocean and the Late Mesozoic lithospheric extension of eastern Asia.

Description: The Kiremt rainy season is the foundation of agriculture in the Ethiopian Highlands and a key driver of economic development as well as the instigator of famines that have plagued the country’s history. Despite the importance of these rains, relatively little research exists on predicting the season’s onset; even less research evaluates statistical modeling approaches, in spite of their demonstrated utility for decision-making at local scales. To explore these methods, predictions are generated conditioned on three definitions of onset, at three lead times, using partial least squares (PLS) regression and random forest classification. Results illustrate moderate prediction skill and an ability to avoid false onsets, which may guide planting decisions; however, they are highly sensitive to how onset is defined, suggesting that future prediction approaches should additionally consider local agricultural definitions of onset.

Description: We formulate a new second-order closure turbulence model by employing a recent closure for the pressure–temperature correlation at the equation level. As a result, we obtain new heat flux equations that avoid the long-standing issue of a finite critical Richardson number. The new, structurally simpler model improves on the Mellor–Yamada and Galperin et al. models; a key feature includes enhanced mixing under stable conditions facilitating agreement with observational, experimental, and high-resolution numerical datasets. The model predicts a planetary boundary layer height deeper than predicted by models with low critical Richardson numbers, as demonstrated in single-column model runs of the GISS ModelE general circulation model.

Description: Fishermen are known to try to avoid fishing in stormy weather, as storms pose a physical threat to fishers, their vessels, and their gear. In this article, a dataset and methods are developed to investigate the degree to which fishers avoid storms, estimate storm aversion parameters, and explore how this response varies across vessel characteristics and across regions of the United States. The data consist of vessel-level trip-taking decisions from six federal fisheries across the United States combined with marine storm warning data from the National Weather Service. The estimates of storm aversion can be used to parameterize predictive models. Fishers’ aversion to storms decreases with increasing vessel size and increases with the severity of the storm warning. This information contributes to our understanding of the risk-to-revenue trade-off that fishers evaluate every time they consider going to sea, and of the propensity of fishers to take adaptive actions to avoid facing additional physical risk.

Description: Sardine Sardinops sagax is an ecologically and economically important Clupeid found off the entire South African coast that includes both coastal upwelling and western boundary current systems. Although the management of the sardine fisheries historically assumed a single, panmictic population, the existence of three, semi-discrete subpopulations has recently been hypothesized. We conducted otolith δ18O and microstructure analyses to investigate nursery habitat temperatures and early life growth rates, respectively, of sardine collected from three biogeographic regions around South Africa’s coast to test that hypothesis. Analyses indicated that for both summer- and winter-captured adults and summer-captured juveniles, fishes from the west coast grew significantly slower in water that was several degrees cooler than those from the south and east coasts. This suggests that mixing of sardines between regions, particularly the west and other coasts, is relatively limited and supports the hypothesis of semi-discrete subpopulations. However, the west-south differences disappeared in the results for winter-captured juveniles, suggesting that differences in early life conditions between regions may change seasonally, and/or that all or most winter-captured juveniles originated from the west coast. Further elucidating the interactions between South African sardine subpopulations and the mechanisms thereof is important for sustainable harvesting of this species.

Description: The orogenic development after the continental collision between Laurussia and Gondwana, led to two contrasting associations of mantle-derived magmatic rocks on the territory of the Bohemian Massif: (i) a 340–310 Ma lamprophyre-lamproite orogenic association and (ii) a 300–275 Ma lamprophyre association of anorogenic affinity. Major types of potassic mantle-derived magmatic rocks recognised in the orogenic and anorogenic associations include: (i) calc-alkaline to alkaline lamprophyres, (ii) alkaline “orthopyroxene minettes” (and geochemically related rocks), and (iii) peralkaline lamproites. These three types significantly differ with respect to mineral, whole-rock and Sr–Nd–Pb–Li isotope composition, and spatial distribution. The calc-alkaline lamprophyres occur throughout the entire Saxo-Thuringian and Moldanubian zones, whereas the different types of malte-derived potassic rocks are spatially restricted to particular zones. Rocks of the Carboniferous lamprophyre-lamproite orogenic association are characterised by variable negative εNd(i) and variably radiogenic Sr(i), whereas the rocks of the Permian lamprophyre association of anorogenic affinity are characterised by positive εNd(i) and relatively young depleted-mantle Nd-model ages reflecting increasing input from upwelling asthenospheric mantle. The small variation in the Pb isotopic composition of post-collisional potassic mantle-derived magmatic rocks (of both the orogenic and anorogenic series) implies that the Pb budget of the mantle beneath the Bohemian Massif is dominated by the same crust-derived material, which itself may include material derived from several sources. The source rocks of “orthopyroxene minettes” are characterised by isotopically light (“eclogitic”) Li and strongly radiogenic (crustal) Sr and may have been metasomatised by high-pressure fluids along the edge of a subduction zone. In contrast, the strongly Al2O3 and CaO depleted mantle source of the lamproites is characterised by isotopically heavy Li and high SiO2 and extreme K2O contents. This mantle source may have been metasomatised predominantly by melts. The mantle source of the lamprophyres may have undergone metasomatism by both fluids and melts.

Description: SUMMARY We present a statistical rock physics inversion of the elastic and electrical properties to estimate the petrophysical properties and quantify the associated uncertainty. The inversion method combines statistical rock physics modeling with Bayesian inverse theory. The model variables of interest are porosity and fluid saturations. The rock physics model includes the elastic and electrical components and can be applied to the results of seismic and electromagnetic inversion. To describe the non-Gaussian behaviour of the model properties, we adopt non-parametric probability density functions to sample multimodal and skewed distributions of the model variables. Different from machine learning approach, the proposed method is not completely data-driven but is based on a statistical rock physics model to link the model parameters to the data. The proposed method provides pointwise posterior distributions of the porosity and CO2 saturation along with the most-likely models and the associated uncertainty. The method is validated using synthetic and real data acquired for CO2 sequestration studies in different formations: the Rock Springs Uplift in Southwestern Wyoming and the Johansen formation in the North Sea, offshore Norway. The proposed approach is validated under different noise conditions and compared to traditional parametric approaches based on Gaussian assumptions. The results show that the proposed method provides an accurate inversion framework where instead of fitting the relationship between the model and the data, we account for the uncertainty in the rock physics model.

Description: SUMMARY The horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) of ambient noise is commonly used to infer a site's resonance frequency (${f_{0,site}}$). HVSR calculations are performed most commonly using the Fourier amplitude spectrum obtained from a single merged horizontal component (e.g. the geometric mean component) from a three-component sensor. However, the use of a single merged horizontal component implicitly relies on the assumptions of azimuthally isotropic seismic noise and 1-D surface and subsurface conditions. These assumptions may not be justified at many sites, leading to azimuthal variability in HVSR measurements that cannot be accounted for using a single merged component. This paper proposes a new statistical method to account for azimuthal variability in the peak frequency of HVSR curves (${f_{0,HVSR}}$). The method uses rotated horizontal components at evenly distributed azimuthal intervals to investigate and quantify azimuthal variability. To ensure unbiased statistics for ${f_{0,HVSR}}$ are obtained, a frequency-domain window-rejection algorithm is applied at each azimuth to automatically remove contaminated time windows in which the ${f_{0,HVSR}}$ values are statistical outliers relative to those obtained from the majority of windows at that azimuth. Then, a weighting scheme is used to account for different numbers of accepted time windows at each azimuth. The new method is applied to a data set of 114 HVSR measurements with significant azimuthal variability in ${f_{0,HVSR}}$, and is shown to reliably account for this variability. The methodology is also extended to the estimation of a complete lognormal-median HVSR curve that accounts for azimuthal variability. To encourage the adoption of this statistical approach to accounting for azimuthal variability in single-station HVSR measurements, the methods presented in this paper have been incorporated into hvsrpy, an open-source Python package for HVSR processing.

Description: A novel approach to compare airborne observations of solar spectral irradiances measured above clouds with along-track radiative transfer simulations (RTS) is presented. The irradiance measurements were obtained with the Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement System (SMART) installed on the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO). The RTS were conducted using the operational ecRad radiation scheme of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and a stand-alone radiative transfer solver, the library for Radiative transfer (libRadtran). Profiles of observed and simulated radar reflectivity were provided by the HALO Microwave Package (HAMP) and the Passive and Active Microwave Transfer Model (PAMTRA), respectively. The comparison aims to investigate the capability of the two models to reproduce the observed radiation field. By analyzing spectral irradiances above clouds, different ice cloud optical parameterizations in the models were evaluated. Simulated and observed radar reflectivity fields allowed the vertical representation of the clouds modeled by the IFS to be evaluated, and enabled errors in the IFS analysis data (IFS AD) and the observations to be separated. The investigation of a North Atlantic low pressure system showed that the RTS, in combination with the IFS AD, generally reproduced the observed radiation field. For heterogeneously distributed liquid water clouds, an underestimation of upward irradiance by up to 27% was found. Simulations of ice-topped clouds, using a specific ice optics parameterization, indicated a systematic underestimation of broadband cloud-top albedo, suggesting major deficiencies in the ice optics parameterization between 1242 and 1941 nm wavelength.

Description: SUMMARY This study focuses in the analysis of the internal structure of the upper 3 km of Los Humeros (LH) caldera and the relation of electrical and hydrothermal anomalies. For this purpose, we measured, processed and interpreted 78 broad-band magnetotelluric (MT) soundings. We performed a 3-D inversion of the data set (ModEM) using all MT soundings, although only half of the available frequencies per sounding due to limited computed power. We also carried out the 2-D inversions (NLCG) of the invariant determinant along two orthogonal profiles (EW and NS) crossing the caldera structure; their comparison yields similar resistivity and structural models results. The resistivity modelling is complemented with the results of a joint 3-D inversion of an accurate gravity database of 720 stations, and total field aeromagnetic data (SGM) from the caldera crater. The combined results provide novel details about the structure of the shallow geothermal reservoir of the resurgence caldera complex hosting the active hydrothermal system. Density and resistivity models show the existence of a composed crater basin structure separated by an EW high-density structure; the northern basin is associated to the LH crater, whereas the southern basin associates to the emergent Los Potreros (LP) caldera basin. The magnetization model indicates that there is a common source for the magnetic volcanic products observed at the caldera surface, and that the LP fault is the more magnetized fault of the geothermal system. The propylic zoning under the geothermal field, which according to the MT model results has resistivities above ∼100 Ω-m, was extrapolated using this and additional criteria to obtain the distribution of other hypothetical propylitic zones of hydrothermal potential.

Description: Based on a priori analysis of large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the convective atmospheric boundary layer, improved turbulent mixing and dissipation length scales are proposed for a turbulence kinetic energy (TKE)-based planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. The turbulent mixing length incorporates surface similarity and TKE constraints in the surface layer, and makes adjustments for lateral entrainment effects in the mixed layer. The dissipation length is constructed based on balanced TKE budgets accounting for shear, buoyancy, and turbulent mixing. A nongradient term is added to the TKE flux to correct for nonlocal turbulent mixing of TKE. The improved length scales are implemented into a PBL scheme, and are tested with idealized single-column convective boundary layer (CBL) cases. Results exhibit robust applicability across a broad CBL stability range, and are in good agreement with LES benchmark simulations. It is then implemented into a community atmospheric model and further evaluated with 3D real-case simulations. Results of the new scheme are of comparable quality to three other well-established PBL schemes. Comparisons between simulated and radiosonde-observed profiles show favorable performance of the new scheme on a clear day.

Description: SUMMARY For the time stationary global geomagnetic field, a new modelling concept is presented. A Bayesian non-parametric approach provides realistic location dependent uncertainty estimates. Modelling related variabilities are dealt with systematically by making little subjective a priori assumptions. Rather than parametrizing the model by Gauss coefficients, a functional analytic approach is applied. The geomagnetic potential is assumed a Gaussian process to describe a distribution over functions. A priori correlations are given by an explicit kernel function with non-informative dipole contribution. A refined modelling strategy is proposed that accommodates non-linearities of archeomagnetic observables: First, a rough field estimate is obtained considering only sites that provide full field vector records. Subsequently, this estimate supports the linearization that incorporates the remaining incomplete records. The comparison of results for the archeomagnetic field over the past 1000 yr is in general agreement with previous models while improved model uncertainty estimates are provided.

Description: SUMMARY Rapid development of time-lapse seismic monitoring instrumentations has made it possible to collect dense time-lapse data for tomographically retrieving time-lapse (even continuous) images of subsurface changes. While traditional time-lapse full waveform inversion (TLFWI) algorithms are designed for sparse time-lapse surveys, they lack of effective temporal constraint on time-lapse data, and, more importantly, lack of the uncertainty estimation of the TLFWI results that is critical for further interpretation. Here, we propose a new data assimilation TLFWI method, using hierarchical matrix powered extended Kalman filter (HiEKF) to quantify the image uncertainty. Compared to existing Kalman filter algorithms, HiEKF allows to store and update a data-sparse representation of the cross-covariance matrices and propagate model errors without expensive operations involving covariance matrices. Hence, HiEKF is computationally efficient and applicable to 3-D TLFWI problems. Then, we reformulate TLFWI in the framework of HiEKF (termed hereafter as TLFWI-HiEKF) to predict time-lapse images of subsurface spatiotemporal velocity changes and simultaneously quantify the uncertainty of the inverted velocity changes over time. We demonstrate the validity and applicability of TLFWI–HiEKF with two realistic CO2 monitoring models derived from Frio-II and Cranfield CO2 injection sites, respectively. In both 2-D and 3-D examples, the inverted high-resolution time-lapse velocity results clearly reveal a continuous velocity reduction due to the injection of CO2. Moreover, the accuracy of the model is increasing over time by assimilating more time-lapse data while the standard deviation is decreasing over lapsed time. We expect TLFWI-HiEKF to be equipped with real-time seismic monitoring systems for continuously imaging the distribution of subsurface gas and fluids in the future large-scale CO2 sequestration experiments and reservoir management.

Description: SUMMARY Seven years after the beginning of a massive wastewater injection project in eastern Colombia, local earthquake activity increased significantly. The field operator and the Colombian Geological Survey immediately reinforced the monitoring of the area. Our analysis of the temporal evolution of the seismic and injection data together with our knowledge of the geological parameters of the region indicate that the surge of seismicity is being induced by the re-injection of produced water into the same three producing reservoirs. Earthquake activity began on known faults once disposal rates had reached a threshold of ∼2 × 106 m3 of water per month. The average reservoir pressure had remained constant at 7.6 MPa after several years of production, sustained by a large, active aquifer. Surface injection pressures in the seismically active areas remain below 8.3 MPa, a value large enough to activate some of the faults. Since faults are mapped throughout the region and many do not have seismicity on them, we conclude that the existence of known faults is not the only control on whether earthquakes are generated. Stress conditions of these faults are open to future studies. Earthquakes are primarily found in four clusters, located near faults mapped by the operator. The hypocentres reveal vertical planes with orientations consistent with focal mechanisms of these events. Stress inversion of the focal mechanisms gives a maximum compression in the direction ENE-WSW, which is in agreement with borehole breakout measurements. Since the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes are consistent with the tectonic stress regime, we can conclude that the seismicity is resulting from the activation of critically stressed faults. Slip was progressive and seismic activity reached a peak before declining to few events per month. The decline in seismicity suggests that most of the stress has been relieved on the main faults. The magnitude of a large majority of the recorded earthquakes was lower than 4, as the pore pressure disturbance did not reach the mapped large faults whose activation might have resulted in larger magnitude earthquakes. Our study shows that a good knowledge of the local fault network and conditions of stress is of paramount importance when planning a massive water disposal program. These earthquakes indicate that while faults provide an opportunity to dispose produced water at an economically attractive volume–pressure ratio, the possibility of induced seismicity must also be considered.

Description: To get the best result for seismic imaging using primary reflections, data with densely-spaced sources and receivers are ideally preferred. However, dense acquisition can sometimes be hindered by various obstacles, like platforms or complex topography. Such areas with large data gaps may deter exploration or monitoring, as conventional imaging strategies would either provide poor seismic images or turn out to be very expensive. Surface-related multiples travel along different paths compared to primaries, illuminating a wider subsurface area and hence making them valuable in case of data with large gaps. We propose different strategies of using surface-related multiples to get around the problem of imaging in the case of a large data gap. Conventional least-squares imaging methods that incorporate surface-related multiples do so by re-injecting the measured wavefield in the forward-modelling process, which makes it still sensitive to missing data. We introduce a ‘non-linear’ inversion approach in which the surface multiples are modelled from the original source field. This makes the method less dependent on the receiver geometry, therefore, effectively exploiting the information from surface multiples in cases of limited illumination. However, such an approach is sensitive to the knowledge of the source properties. Therefore, we propose a ‘hybrid’ method that combines the non-linear imaging method with the conventional ‘linear’ multiple imaging method, which further improves our imaging result. We test the methods on numerical as well as field data. The results indicate substantial removal of artefacts in the image derived from linear imaging methods due to incomplete data, by exploiting the surface multiples to a maximum extent.

Description: This study investigates the northward-propagating quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) in the western North Pacific by examining the composite meridional structures. Using newly released reanalysis and remote sensing data, the northward propagation is understood in terms of the meridional contrasts in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) moisture and the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE). The meridional contrast in the PBL moisture, with larger values north of the convection center, is predominantly attributed to the moisture convergence associated with barotropic vorticity anomalies. A secondary contribution comes from the meridional moisture advection, for which advections by mean and perturbation winds are almost equally important. The meridional contrast in the MSE tendency, due to the recharge in the front of convection and discharge in the rear of convection, is jointly contributed by the meridional and vertical MSE advections. The meridional MSE advection mainly depends on the moisture processes particularly in the PBL, and the vertical MSE advection largely results from the advection of the mean MSE by vertical velocity anomalies, wherein the upper-troposphere ascending motion related to the stratiform heating in the rear of the convection plays the major role. In addition, partial feedback from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is evaluated on the basis of MSE budget analysis. SST anomalies tend to enhance the surface turbulent heat fluxes ahead of the convention center and suppress them behind the convention center, thus positively contributing approximately 20% of the meridional contrast in the MSE tendency.

Description: The Lu–Hf isotope system and Sr–Nd–Hf–Os isotope systematics of mantle rocks are capable of unravelling the early processes in collision belts, especially in a hot subduction context where the Sm–Nd and U–Pb systems in crustal rocks are prone to resetting owing to high temperatures and interaction with melts during exhumation. To improve models of the Devonian–Carboniferous evolution of the Bohemian Massif, we investigated in detail mafic and ultramafic rocks (eclogite, pyroxenite, and peridotite) from the ultrahigh-pressure and ultrahigh-temperature Kutná Hora Crystalline Complex (KHCC: Úhrov, Bečváry, Doubrava, and Spačice localities). Petrography, multiphase solid inclusions, major and trace element compositions of rocks and minerals, and radiogenic isotopic data document contrasting sources and protoliths as well as effects of subduction-related processes for these rocks. The Úhrov peridotite has a depleted composition corresponding to the suboceanic asthenospheric mantle, whereas Bečváry and Doubrava peridotites represent lithospheric mantle that underwent melt refertilization by basaltic and SiO2-undersaturated melts, respectively. Multiphase solid inclusions enclosed in garnet from Úhrov and Bečváry peridotites represent trapped H2O ± CO2-bearing metasomatizing agents and Fe–Ti-rich melts. The KHCC eclogites either formed by high-pressure crystal accumulation from mantle-derived basaltic melts (Úhrov) or represent a fragment of mid-ocean ridge basalt-like gabbroic cumulate (Spačice) and crustal-derived material (Doubrava) both metamorphosed at high P–T conditions. The Lu–Hf age of 395 ± 23 Ma obtained for the Úhrov peridotite reflects garnet growth related to burial of the asthenospheric mantle during subduction of the oceanic slab. By contrast, Spačice and Doubrava eclogites yield younger Lu–Hf ages of ∼350 and 330 Ma, respectively, representing mixed ages as demonstrated by the strong granulite-facies overprint and trace element zoning in garnet grains. We propose a refined model for the Early Variscan evolution of the Bohemian Massif starting with the subduction of the oceanic crust (Saxothuringian ocean) and associated oceanic asthenospheric mantle (Úhrov) beneath the Teplá–Barrandian at ≥380 Ma, which was responsible for melt refertilization of the associated mantle wedge (Bečváry, Doubrava). This was followed by continental subduction (∼370–360 Ma?) accompanied by the oceanic slab break-off and incorporation of the upwelling asthenospheric mantle into the Moldanubian lithospheric mantle and subsequent coeval exhumation of mantle and crustal rocks at ∼350–330 Ma.

Description: Summary Virtual Deep Seismic Sounding (VDSS) uses the arrival time of post-critical SsPmp relative to the direct S wave to infer Moho depth at the Pmp reflection point. Due to the large offset between the virtual source and the receiver, SsPmp is more sensitive to lateral variations of structures than near-vertical phases such as Ps, which is used to construct conventional P receiver functions. However, the way post-critical SsPmp is affected by lateral variations in lithospheric structure is not well understood, and previous studies largely assumed a 1D structure when analyzing SsPmp waveforms. Here we present synthetic tests with various 2D models to show that lateral variations in lithospheric structures, from the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary to sedimentary basins, profoundly affect travel time, phase, and amplitude of post-critical SsPmp, and that a 1D approximation is usually inappropriate when analyzing 2D data. Despite these strong effects we show, with synthetic examples and the ChinArray data from the Ordos Block in northern China, that a simple ray-theory-based back-projection method can retrieve the geometry of the crust-mantle boundary given array observations in cases with moderate lateral variations in the crust-mantle boundary and/or the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. The success of our back-projection method indicates that ray-theory approximations are sufficient in modeling SsPmp travel times in the presence of moderate lateral heterogeneity. In contrast, we show that the ray theory is generally insufficient in modeling SsPmp phase shifts in a strongly heterogeneous lithosphere due to non-planar down-going P waves incident at the crust-mantle boundary. Nonetheless, our results demonstrate the feasibility of direct imaging of the crust-mantle boundary with post-critical SsPmp even in the presence of 2D variations of lithospheric structure.

Description: Progress towards ecosystem-based fisheries management calls for useful tools to prioritize actions. To select suitable methods for local circumstances, evaluating approaches used in other jurisdictions can be a cost-effective first step. We tested Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA) to assess the potential vulnerability of the marine fish community in the Skagerrak–Kattegat (Eastern North Sea) to possible interactions with all Swedish fisheries operating in the area. This analysis combines attributes for a species productivity with attributes related to the susceptibility to capture to quantify a single score for vulnerability: high, medium, or low risk. Results indicate that demersal trawl and gillnet fisheries were associated with the highest risk levels if interaction occurs, i.e. having the highest prevalence of species with potentially high vulnerability to the fisheries. Mixed results were seen when comparing the assessment results with available data. The main benefit of utilizing PSA in the area is the comprehensiveness of the assessment, including data-deficient fisheries and species. Drawbacks include potential overestimation of actual risks. Overall, together with available data, PSA in the studied area provides a comprehensive map of potential risks for further actions and may progress a science-based, precautionary management of the area.

Description: Although the development of supergradient winds is well understood, the importance of supergradient winds in tropical cyclone (TC) intensification is still under debate. One view is that the spinup of the eyewall occurs by the upward advection of high tangential momentum associated with supergradient winds from the boundary layer. The other view argues that the upward advection of supergradient winds by eyewall updrafts results in an outward agradient force, leading to the formation of a shallow outflow layer immediately above the inflow boundary layer. As a result, the spinup of tangential wind in the eyewall by the upward advection of supergradient wind from the boundary layer is largely offset by the spindown of tangential wind due to the outflow resulting from the agradient force. In this study, the net contribution by the upward advection of the supergradient wind component from the boundary layer to the intensification rate and final intensity of a TC are quantified through ensemble sensitivity numerical experiments using an axisymmetric TC model. Results show that consistent with the second view above, the positive upward advection of the supergradient wind component from the boundary layer by eyewall updrafts is largely offset by the negative radial advection due to the outflow resulting from the outward agradient force. As a result, the upward advection of the supergradient wind component contributes little (often less than 4%) to the intensification rate and but it contributes about 10%–15% to the final intensity of the simulated TC due to the enhanced inner-core air–sea thermodynamic disequilibrium.

Description: This study is the first to reach a global view of the precipitation process partitioning, using a combination of satellite and global climate modeling data. The pathways investigated are 1) precipitating ice (ice/snow/graupel) that forms above the freezing level and melts to produce rain (S) followed by additional condensation and collection as the melted precipitating ice falls to the surface (R); 2) growth completely through condensation and collection (coalescence), warm rain (W); and 3) precipitating ice (primarily snow) that falls to the surface (SS). To quantify the amounts, data from satellite-based radar measurements—CloudSat, GPM, and TRMM—are used, as well as climate model simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and the Met Office Unified Model (UM). Total precipitation amounts and the fraction of the total precipitation amount for each of the pathways is examined latitudinally, regionally, and globally. Carefully examining the contributions from the satellite-based products leads to the conclusion that about 57% of Earth’s precipitation follows pathway S, 15% R, 23% W, and 5% SS, each with an uncertainty of ±5%. The percentages differ significantly from the global climate model results, with the UM indicating smaller fractional S, more R, and more SS; and CAM showing appreciably greater S, negative R (indicating net evaporation below the melting layer), a much larger percentage of W and much less SS. Possible reasons for the wide differences between the satellite- and model-based results are discussed.

Description: While fisheries provide food and employment for hundreds of millions of people, they also can have significant impact on biodiversity. We explore the potential of area-based fisheries management to simultaneously maintain biodiversity and high levels of sustainable food production. We used two illustrative examples of fisheries that have different gear types, areas, and species to evaluate the trade-off between biodiversity and harvest. We calculate the optimal effort by gear and area that maximizes a weighted objective function of biodiversity and harvest, ranging from 100% of the weight on harvest to 100% on biodiversity. We found for both case studies that the trade-off was highly convex, with win–win solutions allowing for high levels of both fishery harvest and conservation. This is achieved by reducing or eliminating fishing effort that negatively impacts high conservation value species while maintaining fishing effort with gears and in areas where there is low conservation impact. We suggest that, in most fisheries, such situations can be found and that effective area-based management can provide for high levels of biodiversity protection and food production.

Description: To determine the failure characteristics and evolution regularity of the floor strata during fully mechanised top-coal cave mining in typical deep and extra-thick seams in western China, the 61303 working face of an Ordos mine was selected as the engineering research object. A comprehensive monitoring method combining a BOTDR (Brillouin Optical Time-Domain Reflection) distributed fiber strain test and a borehole resistivity CT (Computerised Tomography) test was adopted. The results show that floor stress distribution of the deep-buried and extra-thick coal seam is significantly affected by the different depths of rock lithology. At the interface of the rock strata with a large difference in the elastic modulus, phenomena such as the asynchronism of strata movement and obvious differences in failure easily occur. The failure depth of the floor strata in the 61303 working face is approximately 15.90 m, and the influence depth of the floor disturbance is approximately 32.70 m. Under the influence of the mining pressure, floor stress distribution and crack evolution have obvious spatial and temporal effects. In different inclined boreholes, the data captured by the cable have different values and the fracture locations of the cable also differ. Compared with a single borehole, multiple boreholes with different inclinations, directions and locations can provide more comprehensive and reliable data trends. The knowledge obtained by this monitoring can provide reference information for the study of floor damage under similar conditions and the formulation of technical measures such as those that prevent mine water disasters.

Description: Summary The Mw 6.0 earthquake that hit central Italy on 24 August 2016 caused an abnormally high level of destruction in the town of Amatrice. In order to clarify the role of site response in causing such a disaster, a series of ambient noise recordings acquired in the aftermath of the event are analysed here to identify site resonance properties from the ratios H/V between horizontal and vertical amplitudes of ground motion. Although the noise data acquisition was limited by the emergency management activities, the use of a new analysis technique, which isolates the contribution of Rayleigh waves to the noise wavefield and averages instantaneous estimates of H/V ratios, provided more stable results compared to the standard Nakamura's technique based on mean spectral ratios. The results demonstrated the occurrence of significant resonance phenomena, but without an obvious correlation with the spatial distribution of damage severity. It is apparent that the damage severity was also influenced by some additional local factors related to building vulnerability. Moreover, the time series analysis revealed seasonal variations in the Rayleigh wave ellipticity curves likely related to the water content changes in the surface deposits and their influence on the Poisson coefficient. Finally, the new method proved capable of recognizing time-varying directions of Rayleigh wave propagation. This capability could be exploited to support other passive seismic methods (e.g. ReMi), whose results reliability is limited by the lack of control on wave direction origin.

Description: SUMMARY This paper explores the effects on tsunami simulations of the level of detail of the bathymetric grid in use. For this purpose, we expand available bathymetric data sets of the Pacific Basin in spherical harmonics. For realistic scenarios of tsunamis generated by earthquake dislocations, we conclude that an expansion to a maximum degree lmax = 40, corresponding to wavelengths of 1000 km, is sufficient to reproduce the main features of the tsunami wavefield synthesized in deep water, that is, without considering final shoaling and interaction with coastal features.

Description: SUMMARY Full-waveform inversion (FWI) has demonstrated increasing success in estimating medium properties, but its computational cost still poses challenges in moving towards high-resolution imaging of targets at depth. Here, we propose a target-oriented FWI method that inverts for the medium parameters confined within an arbitrary region of interest. Our method is novel in terms of both local wavefield modelling and data redatuming, in order to build a target-oriented objective function which is sensitive to the target medium only without further assumptions about the medium outside. Based on the convolution-type representation theorem, our local forward modelling operator propagates wavefields within the target medium only while providing full acoustic coupling between the target medium and the surrounding geology. A key requirement of our local FWI method is that the subsurface wavefields surrounding and inside the target be as accurate as possible. As such, the subsurface wavefields are retrieved by the Marchenko method, which can redatum the single-sided surface reflection data to the target zone while preserving both primary and multiple reflections, with minimal a priori knowledge of the full-domain medium. Given a sufficiently accurate initial velocity macromodel, our numerical examples show that our local FWI method resolves the reservoir zone of a 2-D Barrett Unconventional P-wave velocity model much more efficiently than the conventional full-domain FWI without significantly sacrificing accuracy. Our method may further enable FWI approaches to high-resolution imaging of subsurface targets.

Description: The Changning–Menglian orogenic belt (CMOB) in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau is an important link between the Longmu Co–Shuanghu suture (LCSS) in the northern Tibetan Plateau and the Chiang Mai–Inthanon and Bentong–Raub sutures in Thailand and Peninsular Malaysia. These belts and sutures are generally regarded as containing the remnants of the oceanic crust of the Palaeo-Tethys that formed by seafloor spreading as a result of the separation of Gondwana- and Eurasia-derived blocks during the Middle Cambrian. In this paper we report the first discovery of abundant unaltered and retrograde eclogites that occur as irregular lenses and blocks in metasedimentary rocks of the CMOB, and these eclogites form an elongate and almost north–south-trending high-pressure (HP)–ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic belt that is ∼200 km long and ∼50 km wide. The newly discovered phengite/talc/epidote–glaucophane eclogites, lawsonite–talc–phengite eclogites, dolomite/magnesite–kyanite eclogites and phengite–kyanite-bearing retrograde eclogites have enriched (E-) and normal mid-ocean ridge basalt (N-MORB)-like affinities and mainly positive as well as some negative whole-rock εNd values (–4·34 to +7·89), which suggest an enriched and depleted oceanic lithosphere source for their protoliths. Magmatic zircons separated from the epidote–glaucophane, magnesite–kyanite and (phengite–kyanite-bearing) retrograde eclogites gave protolith ages of 317–250 Ma, which fit well within the time frame of the opening of the Palaeo-Tethys during the Middle Cambrian and its closure during the Triassic. Abundant metamorphic zircons in the eclogites indicate a Triassic metamorphic event related to the subduction of the Palaeo-Tethys oceanic crust from 235 to 227 Ma. Taking into account previous isotopic age data, we now establish the periods of Early–Middle Triassic (246–227 Ma) and Late Triassic (222–209 Ma) as the ages of subduction and exhumation of the Palaeo-Tethyan oceanic crust, respectively. Thermodynamic modelling revealed that the eclogites record distinct HP–UHP peak metamorphic conditions of 23·0–25·5 kbar and 582–610 °C for the phengite–glaucophane eclogites, 24·0–25·5 kbar and 570–586 °C for the talc–glaucophane eclogites, 29·0–31·0 kbar and 675–712 °C for the dolomite–kyanite eclogites, and 30·0–32·0 kbar and 717–754 °C for the magnesite–kyanite eclogites. These P–T estimates and geochronological data indicate that the Palaeo-Tethys oceanic slab was subducted to different mantle depths from 75 km down to 95 km, forming distinct types of eclogite with a variety of peak eclogite-facies mineral assemblages. The eclogites consistently record clockwise metamorphic P–T–t paths characterized by a heating–compression prograde loop under a low geothermal gradient of 5–10 °C km–1, indicating the rapid subduction of cold oceanic crust at a rate of 4·5–6·0 km Ma–1, followed by isothermal or cooling–decompressive retrogression and exhumation at an average rate of 3·2–4·2 km Ma–1. The newly discovered eclogites of the CMOB with their signatures of ocean-crust subduction are petrologically, geochemically and geochronologically comparable with those of the LCSS, providing powerful support for the idea that a nearly 2000 km long HP–UHP eclogite belt extends from the northern Tibetan Plateau to the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and that it represents the main boundary suture of the Palaeo-Tethyan domain. These results have far-reaching implications for the tectonic framework and complex metamorphic evolution of the Palaeo-Tethyan domain.

Description: The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.

Description: SUMMARY Determining rock microstructure remains challenging, since a proper rock-physics model is needed to establish the relation between pore microstructure and elastic and transport properties. We present a model to estimate pore microstructure based on porosity, ultrasonic velocities and permeability, assuming that the microstructure consists on randomly oriented stiff equant pores and penny-shaped cracks. The stiff pore and crack porosity varying with differential pressure is estimated from the measured total porosity on the basis of a dual porosity model. The aspect ratio of pores and cracks and the crack density as a function of differential pressure are obtained from dry-rock P- and S-wave velocities, by using a differential effective medium model. These results are used to invert the pore radius from the matrix permeability by using a circular pore model. Above a crack density of 0.13, the crack radius can be estimated from permeability, and below that threshold, the radius is estimated from P-wave velocities, taking into account the wave dispersion induced by local fluid flow between pores and cracks. The approach is applied to experimental data for dry and saturated Fontainebleau sandstone and Chelmsford Granite.

Description: Multiple-layered coal seams widely exist in main coal mining areas of China. When these coal seams are exploited, the pillar mining method is always employed. This leads to many coal pillars left in the upper coal seams as a protective barrier. As a result, these residual pillars will not only cause the loss of coal resources but also could trigger environmental issues and a serious of mine disasters. A theoretical model was built to analyse the effect of the residual pillars. From the theoretical model, it was found that four stress concentration areas were formed by the upper residual coal pillars. To address the issues of the residual coal pillars, Datong Coal Mine Group has developed an innovative technology of the roof cutting with a chainsaw. A new protective coal seam mining method using chainsaw roof-cutting technology is introduced. A numerical model is constructed to analyse the mining pressure distribution law in working face within the lower layer coal seam. From the numerical simulation, the new protective layer mining method could reduce about 15.2% of the advancing stress, which contributes a lot to controlling the mining pressure within the lower layer. The field measurement showed that the hydraulic support utilised at the site was at lower pressure levels, which proves the new protective seam mining method can significantly reduce the working face pressure.

Description: Recent application of Fourier transform near infra-red spectroscopy (FT-NIRS) to predict age in fish otoliths has gained attention among fisheries managers as a potential alternative to costly production ageing of managed species. We assessed the age prediction capability of FT-NIRS scans in whole otoliths from red snapper, Lutjanus campechanus, collected from the US Gulf of Mexico and US Atlantic Ocean (South Atlantic). Otoliths were scanned with an FT-NIR spectrometer and resulting spectral signatures were regressed with traditionally estimated ages via partial least squares regression to produce calibration models, which were validated for predictive capability against test sets of otoliths. Calibration models successfully predicted age with R2 ranging 0.94–0.95, mean squared error ≤1.8 years, and bias 31 years were not well predicted, possibly due to light attenuation in the thickest otoliths. Our results suggest that FT-NIRS can improve efficiency in production ageing for fisheries management while maintaining data quality standards.

Description: Replacive symplectites (vermicular intergrowths of two or more minerals) are an important feature of layered igneous intrusions, recording evidence of late-stage reactions between interstitial liquid and crystals. They are common throughout the Layered Series of the 564 Ma Sept Iles layered intrusion in Quebec, Canada, and fall into three types: oxy-symplectites, ‘Type I’ symplectites, and ‘Type II’ symplectites. Oxy-symplectites are comprised of magnetite and orthopyroxene, nucleate on olivine primocrysts, and form via the reaction Olivine + O2 → Orthopyroxene + Magnetite; Type I symplectites (of which there are 3 distinct categories) are comprised of anorthitic plagioclase with pyroxene, amphibole, or olivine vermicules, grow from primocryst oxide grains, and replace primary plagioclase; and Type II symplectites (of which there are 2 distinct categories) are comprised of anorthitic plagioclase with orthopyroxene ± amphibole vermicules, grow from primocryst olivine grains, and replace primocryst plagioclase. Rare symplectites composed of biotite and plagioclase are also present. Symplectite growth occurred at 700-1030 °C with pressure constraints of 1-2 kbar. We propose that Type I symplectites, and some Type II symplectites, formed from interaction of primocrysts with residual Fe-rich liquid as a consequence of differential loss of an immiscible Si-rich liquid conjugate from the crystal mush. However, redistribution and concentration of hydrous fluids in incompletely solidified rock, or an increase in water activity of the interstitial melt, may be more plausible processes responsible for the formation of replacive symplectites comprising abundant hydrous mineral assemblages.

Description: This article investigates the diet of the snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and its feeding intensity in the Barents Sea. Data show that snow crab has a diverse diet that includes almost all types of benthic invertebrates living in the Barents Sea. There are differences between the diets of females and males and of juveniles and adults. Juveniles and females typically occupy shallow areas with communities of bivalve molluscs, while males typically live deeper on slopes and depressions where polychaetes and crustaceans are the most abundant groups. Stomach contents were analysed to determine the species composition and frequency of occurrence of various benthic taxa. Consumption of food was estimated and compared with data from the Russian seas of the Pacific region. The total annual consumption of macrozoobenthos by snow crab was calculated in accordance with its current distribution in the Barents Sea. Snow crab consumes at least 30 000 tonnes of benthos annually, which amounts to 0.1–0.2% of the total macrozoobenthic biomass in the investigated area. The population of snow crab causes the largest impact on the benthic communities in the northeastern part of the Barents Sea and near the south side of the Novaya Zemlya archipelago.

Description: Until the late 19th century, extensive beds of flat oyster Ostrea edulis populated the Central North Sea, which have vanished after intensive fisheries. At present, various initiatives are being carried out to investigate the potential to restore this former key species in the area. This historical ecological study contributes by delineating the former oyster bed area and through an assessment of its limits against known gradients in the North Sea. Extensive data from historical maps, texts, and ship-based surveys were used to synthesize our knowledge on the former beds. It was revealed that the area with oyster beds covered ∼6.2% of the total North Sea bottom, with a delineation that could partly be explained by hydrodynamic and temperature gradients. The position and extent of the area are notably different from the area that is used in recent feasibility studies on the restoration of North Sea oyster beds. The offshore oysters lived on muddy sand in relatively cold conditions, and there are several indications that their reproductive rate was low. The apparent disappearance of cold water adapted flat oysters will challenge restoration projects. This study provides indispensable information for the future restoration of flat oyster beds in the North Sea.

Description: A sensitivity analysis methodology recently developed by the authors is applied to COAMPS and WRF. The method involves varying model parameters according to Latin Hypercube Sampling, and developing multivariate multiple regression models that map the model parameters to forecasts over a spatial domain. The regression coefficients and p values testing whether the coefficients are zero serve as measures of sensitivity of forecasts with respect to model parameters. Nine model parameters are selected from COAMPS and WRF, and their impact is examined on nine forecast quantities (water vapor, convective and gridscale precipitation, and air temperature and wind speed at three altitudes). Although the conclusions depend on the model parameters and specific forecast quantities, it is shown that sensitivity to model parameters is often accompanied by nontrivial spatial structure, which itself depends on the underlying forecast model (i.e., COAMPS vs WRF). One specific difference between these models is in their sensitivity with respect to a parameter that controls temperature increments in the Kain–Fritsch trigger function; whereas this parameter has a distinct spatial structure in COAMPS, that structure is completely absent in WRF. The differences between COAMPS and WRF also extend to the quality of the statistical models used to assess sensitivity; specifically, the differences are largest over the waters off the southeastern coast of the United States. The implication of these findings is twofold: not only is the spatial structure of sensitivities different between COAMPS and WRF, the underlying relationship between the model parameters and the forecasts is also different between the two models.

Description: An increase in the severity of extreme weather is arguably one of the most important consequences of climate change with immediate and potentially devastating impacts. Recent events, like Hurricane Harvey, stimulated public discourse surrounding the role of climate change in amplifying, or otherwise modifying, the patterns of such events. Within the scientific community, recent years have witnessed considerable progress on “climate attribution”—the use of statistical techniques to assess the probability that climate change is influencing the character of some extreme weather events. Using a novel application of signal detection theory, this article assesses when, and to what extent, laypeople attribute changes in hurricanes to climate change and whether and how certain characteristics predict this decision. The results show that people attribute hurricanes to climate change based on their preexisting climate beliefs and numeracy. Respondents who were more dubious about the existence of climate change (and more numerate) required a greater degree of evidence (i.e., a more extreme world) before they were willing to suggest that an unusual hurricane season might be influenced by climate change. However, those who have doubts were still willing to make these attributions when hurricane behavior becomes sufficiently extreme. In general, members of the public who hold different prior views about climate change are not in complete disagreement about the evidence they perceive, which leaves the possibility for future work to explore ways to bring such judgments back into alignment.

Description: Summary Relative location of microearthquakes that occurred at Mt. Pollino (Italy) from 2011 to 2013 have been analyzed with the aim of a detailed imaging of the geometry of active faults. We identified 27 clusters composed of a number of earthquakes from 9 to 33, with local magnitude in the range 0.6–2.7. The relative location shows that the distribution of hypocenters in each cluster is characterized by extension from few tens of meters to at most 350 m. For each cluster the hypocenter distribution was fitted by a plane to infer the fault orientation, and results were compared with the fault plane solutions corresponding to the focal mechanism of earthquakes of the same cluster. The comparison shows a good agreement in most of the cases. The relative location analysis, generally applied to earthquakes with similar waveform, has been improved to permit also the relative location of earthquakes characterized by not similar signals. To achieve this purpose a modified procedure that overcome the condition of very similar waveforms has been applied to estimate the time delay between first pulses of the master events. The relative location of master events of all clusters shows a precise imaging of the relative position of all analyzed sources and allows also to follow with high accuracy the evolution in time of the seismic swarm within the selected periods. The hypocenter position of master events and the nearly parallel fitting planes of any clusters suggest that most of the analyzed earthquakes were produced by different patches of the same fault. The final results depict a main fault plane characterized by NW-SE strike, dip of about 35–45 degrees, and depth between 4.5 and 6.5 km b.s.l.. Focal mechanisms, used also to evaluate the local stress field, are mostly of normal type with few strike slip solutions for the shallowest events. This result is in good agreement with the local tectonic stress regime that is characterized by predominant NE-SW trans-tension, as inferred from structural, seismological and geophysical data.

Description: A high-resolution global atmospheric model, the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM), exhibited underestimation biases in low-level mixed-phase clouds in the midlatitudes and polar regions. The ice-cloud microphysics used in a single-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme (NSW6) was evaluated and improved using a single-column model by reference to a double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme (NDW6). Budget analysis indicated that excessive action of the Bergeron–Findeisen and riming processes crucially reduced supercooled liquid water. In addition, the rapid production of rain directly reduced cloud water and indirectly reduced cloud water through the production of snow and graupel by riming. These biases in growth rates were found to originate from the number concentration diagnosis used in NSW6. The diagnosis based on the midlatitude cloud systems assumption was completely different from the one for low-level mixed-phase clouds. To alleviate underestimation biases, rain production, heterogeneous ice nucleation, vapor deposition by snow and graupel, and riming processes were revised. The sequential revisions of cloud microphysics alleviated the underestimation biases step by step without parameter tuning. The lifetime of cloud layers simulated by NSW6 was reasonably prolonged.

Description: Warm-season rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central United States is characterized by higher intensity and nocturnal timing compared to rainfall from non-MCS systems, suggesting their potentially different footprints on the land surface. To differentiate the impacts of MCS and non-MCS rainfall on the surface water balance, a water tracer tool embedded in the Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (WT-Noah-MP) is used to numerically “tag” water from MCS and non-MCS rainfall separately during April–August (1997–2018) and track their transit in the terrestrial system. From the water-tagging results, over 50% of warm-season rainfall leaves the surface–subsurface system through evapotranspiration by the end of August, but non-MCS rainfall contributes a larger fraction. However, MCS rainfall plays a more important role in generating surface runoff. These differences are mostly attributed to the rainfall intensity differences. The higher-intensity MCS rainfall tends to produce more surface runoff through infiltration excess flow and drives a deeper penetration of the rainwater into the soil. Over 70% of the top 10th percentile runoff is contributed by MCS rainfall, demonstrating its important contribution to local flooding. In contrast, lower-intensity non-MCS rainfall resides mostly in the top layer and contributes more to evapotranspiration through soil evaporation. Diurnal timing of rainfall has negligible effects on the flux partitioning for both MCS and non-MCS rainfall. Differences in soil moisture profiles for MCS and non-MCS rainfall and the resultant evapotranspiration suggest differences in their roles in soil moisture–precipitation feedbacks and ecohydrology.

Description: Using 4-yr mooring observations and ocean circulation model experiments, this study characterizes the spatial and temporal variability of the Equatorial Intermediate Current (EIC; 200–1200 m) in the Indian Ocean and investigates the causes. The EIC is dominated by seasonal and intraseasonal variability, with interannual variability being weak. The seasonal component dominates the midbasin with a predominant semiannual period of ~166 days but weakens toward east and west where the EIC generally exhibits large intraseasonal variations. The resonant second and fourth baroclinic modes at the semiannual period make the largest contribution to the EIC, determining the overall EIC structures. The higher baroclinic modes, however, modify the EIC’s vertical structures, forming multiple cores during some time periods. The EIC intensity has an abrupt change near 73°E, which is strong to the east and weak to the west. Model simulation suggests that the abrupt change is caused primarily by the Maldives, which block the propagation of equatorial waves. The Maldives impede the equatorial Rossby waves, reducing the EIC’s standard deviation associated with reflected Rossby waves by ~48% and directly forced waves by 20%. Mode decomposition further demonstrates that the semiannual resonance amplitude of the second baroclinic mode reduces by 39% because of the Maldives. However, resonance amplitude of the four baroclinic mode is less affected, because the Maldives fall in the node region of mode 4’s resonance. The research reveals the spatiotemporal variability of the poorly understood EIC, contributing to our understanding of equatorial wave–current dynamics.

Description: SUMMARY The source characteristics of offshore seismic events, especially regular (or fast) and slow earthquakes, can provide key information on their source physics and frictional conditions at the plate boundary. Due to strong 3-D heterogeneities in offshore regions, such as those relating to sea water, accretionary prism and small-scale velocity heterogeneity, conventional methods using a 1-D earth model may mis-estimate source parameters such as the duration and radiation energy. Estimations could become severe inaccuracies for small offshore seismic events because high-frequency (〉1 Hz) seismograms, which are strongly affected by 3-D heterogeneities, are only available for analysis because of their signal-to-noise ratio. To investigate the effects of offshore heterogeneities on source parameter estimation for small seismic events, we analysed both observed and simulated high-frequency seismograms southeast off the Kii Peninsula, Japan, in the Nankai subduction zone. Numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation using a 3-D velocity structure model clarified the effects of each heterogeneity. Comparisons between observations and model simulations demonstrated that the thick low-velocity accretionary prism has significant effects on high-frequency seismic wave propagation. Especially for shallow low-frequency tremors occurring at depths just below the accretionary prism toe, seismogram durations are significantly broader than an assumed source duration, even for stations with epicentral distances of approximately 10 km. Spindle-shape seismogram envelopes were observed even at such close stations. Our results suggest that incorporating 3-D heterogeneities is necessary for practical estimation of source parameters for small offshore events.

Description: The Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW) defined as the period 1921–50 saw a clear increase in actinometrical observations in the Arctic. Nevertheless, information on radiation balance and its components at that time is still very limited in availability, and therefore large discrepancies exist among estimates of total solar irradiance forcing. To eliminate these uncertainties, all available solar radiation data for the Arctic needs to be collected and processed. Better knowledge about incoming solar radiation (direct, diffuse and global) should allow for more reliable estimation of the magnitude of total solar irradiance forcing, which can help in turn, to more precisely and correctly explain the reasons for the ETCW in the Arctic. The paper summarises our research into the availability of solar radiation data for the Arctic. An important part of this work is its detailed inventory of data series (including metadata) for the period before the mid-20th century. Based on the most reliable data series, general solar conditions in the Arctic during the ETCW are described. The character of solar radiation changes between the ETCW and present times, in particular after 2000, is also analyzed. Average annual global solar radiation in the Russian Arctic during the ETCW were slightly greater than in the period 1964–90 (by about 1–2 W·m˗2), and markedly greater than in the period 2001–19 (by about 16 W·m˗2). Our results also reveal that in the period 1920–2019 three phases of solar radiation changes can be distinguished: a brightening phase (1921–50), a stabilisation phase (1951–93) and a dimming phase (after 2000).

Description: Variability in soil moisture has implications for regional terrestrial environments under a warming climate. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variability in the intra-annual persistence of soil moisture in China using the fifth-generation reanalysis dataset by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for the period 1979–2018. The results show that in China, the mean intra-annual persistence in the humid to arid zones increased from 60 to 115 days in the lower layer but decreased from 19 to 13 days and from 25 to 14 days in the upper and root layers, respectively. However, these changes were strongly attenuated in extremely dry and wet regions due to the scarcity of soil moisture anomalies. Large changes in persistence occurred in the lower soil layer in dryland areas, with a mean difference of up to 40 days between the 2010s and the 1980s. Overall increasing trends dominated the large-scale spatial features, despite regional decreases in the eastern arid zone and the North and Northeast China plains. In the root layer, the two plains experienced an expanded decrease while on the Tibetan Plateau it was dominated by decadal variability. These contrasting changes between the lower and root layers along the periphery of the transition zone was a reflection of the enhanced soil hydrological cycle in the root layer. The enhanced persistence in drylands lower layer is an indication of the intensified impacts of soil moisture anomalies (e.g., droughts) on terrestrial water cycle. These findings may help the understanding of climate change impacts on terrestrial environments.

Description: Data assimilation combines forecasts from a numerical model with observations. Most of the current data assimilation algorithms consider the model and observation error terms as additive Gaussian noise, specified by their covariance matrices Q and R, respectively. These error covariances, and specifically their respective amplitudes, determine the weights given to the background (i.e., the model forecasts) and to the observations in the solution of data assimilation algorithms (i.e., the analysis). Consequently, Q and R matrices significantly impact the accuracy of the analysis. This review aims to present and to discuss, with a unified framework, different methods to jointly estimate the Q and R matrices using ensemble-based data assimilation techniques. Most of the methods developed to date use the innovations, defined as differences between the observations and the projection of the forecasts onto the observation space. These methods are based on two main statistical criteria: 1) the method of moments, in which the theoretical and empirical moments of the innovations are assumed to be equal, and 2) methods that use the likelihood of the observations, themselves contained in the innovations. The reviewed methods assume that innovations are Gaussian random variables, although extension to other distributions is possible for likelihood-based methods. The methods also show some differences in terms of levels of complexity and applicability to high-dimensional systems. The conclusion of the review discusses the key challenges to further develop estimation methods for Q and R. These challenges include taking into account time-varying error covariances, using limited observational coverage, estimating additional deterministic error terms, or accounting for correlated noise.

Description: SUMMARY We present an updated joint tomographic method to simultaneously invert receiver function waveforms and surface wave dispersions for a 3-D S-wave velocity (Vs) model. By applying this method to observations from ∼900 seismic stations and with a priori Moho constraints from previous studies, we construct a 3-D lithospheric S-wave velocity model and crustal-thickness map for the central–east Tibetan plateau. Data misfit/fitting shows that the inverted model can fit the receiver functions and surface wave dispersions reasonably well, and checkerboard tests show the model can retrieve major structural information. The results highlight several features. Within the plateau crustal thickness is 〉60 km and outwith the plateau it is ∼40 km. Obvious Moho offsets and lateral variations of crustal velocities exist beneath the eastern (Longmen Shan Fault), northern (central–east Kunlun Fault) and northeastern (east Kunlun Fault) boundaries of the plateau, but with decreasing intensity. Segmented high upper-mantle velocities have varied occurrences and depth extents from south/southwest to north/northeast in the plateau. A Z-shaped upper-mantle low-velocity channel, which was taken as Tibetan lithospheric mantle, reflecting deformable material lies along the northern and eastern periphery of the Tibetan plateau, seemingly separating two large high-velocity mantle areas that, respectively, correspond to the Indian and Asian lithospheres. Other small high-velocity mantle segments overlain by the Z-shaped channel are possibly remnants of cold microplates/slabs associated with subductions/collisions prior to the Indian–Eurasian collision during the accretion of the Tibetan region. By integrating the Vs structures with known tectonic information, we derive that the Indian slab generally underlies the plateau south of the Bangong–Nujiang suture in central Tibet and the Jinsha River suture in eastern Tibet and west of the Lanchangjiang suture in southeastern Tibet. The eastern, northern, northeastern and southeastern boundaries of the Tibetan plateau have undergone deformation with decreasing intensity. The weakly resisting northeast and southeast margins, bounded by a wider softer channel of uppermost mantle material, are two potential regions for plateau expansion in the future.

Description: A large midlatitude cyclone occurred over the central United States from 0000 to 1800 UTC 30 April 2017. During this period, there were more than 1100 reports of moderate-or-greater turbulence at commercial aviation cruising altitudes east of the Rocky Mountains. Much of this turbulence was located above or, otherwise, outside the synoptic-scale cloud shield of the cyclone, thus complicating its avoidance. In this study we use two-way nesting in a numerical model with finest horizontal spacing of 370 m to investigate possible mechanisms producing turbulence in two distinct regions of the cyclone. In both regions, model-parameterized turbulence kinetic energy compares well to observed turbulence reports. Despite being outside of hazardous large radar reflectivity locations in deep convection, both regions experienced strong modification of the turbulence environment as a result of upper-tropospheric/lower-stratospheric (UTLS) convective outflow. For one region, where turbulence was isolated and short lived, simulations revealed breaking of ~100-km horizontal-wavelength lower-stratospheric gravity waves in the exit region of a UTLS jet streak as the most likely mechanism for the observed turbulence. Although similar waves occurred in a simulation without convection, the altitude at which wave breaking occurred in the control simulation was strongly affected by UTLS outflow from distant deep convection. In the other analyzed region, turbulence was more persistent and widespread. There, overturning waves of much shorter 5–10-km horizontal wavelengths occurred within layers of gradient Richardson number 〈 0.25, which promoted Kelvin–Helmholtz instability associated with strong vertical shear in different horizontal locations both above and beneath the convectively enhanced UTLS jet.

Description: In this study, we investigate the technical application of the regularized regression method Lasso for identifying systematic biases in decadal precipitation predictions from a high-resolution regional climate model (CCLM) for Europe. The Lasso approach is quite novel in climatological research. We apply Lasso to observed precipitation and a large number of predictors related to precipitation derived from a training simulation, and transfer the trained Lasso regression model to a virtual forecast simulation for testing. Derived predictors from the model include local predictors at a given grid box and EOF predictors that describe large-scale patterns of variability for the same simulated variables. A major added value of the Lasso function is the variation of the so-called shrinkage factor and its ability in eliminating irrelevant predictors and avoiding overfitting. Among 18 different settings, an optimal shrinkage factor is identified that indicates a robust relationship between predictand and predictors. It turned out that large-scale patterns as represented by the EOF predictors outperform local predictors. The bias adjustment using the Lasso approach mainly improves the seasonal cycle of the precipitation prediction and, hence, improves the phase relationship and reduces the root-mean-square error between model prediction and observations. Another goal of the study pertains to the comparison of the Lasso performance with classical model output statistics and with a bivariate bias correction approach. In fact, Lasso is characterized by a similar and regionally higher skill than classical approaches of model bias correction. In addition, it is computationally less expensive. Therefore, we see a large potential for the application of the Lasso algorithm in a wider range of climatological applications when it comes to regression-based statistical transfer functions in statistical downscaling and model bias adjustment.

Description: SUMMARY We present unambiguous evidence that the Mahogany salt body, located in the Northern part of the Gulf of Mexico, is seismically anisotropic. Evidence of anisotropy comes from shear wave splitting data obtained from a vertical seismic profile VSP. The data set consists of 48 vertically aligned receivers in a borehole drilled through the salt body. Splitting analysis is performed on shear wave phases that are converted from compressional waves at the top and bottom of the salt body. The phase converted at the top of the salt layer shows a clear signature of seismic anisotropy, while the phase at the base of the salt layer shows negligible splitting. We investigate the possibility of rock salt halite LPO as a cause of the observed anisotropy. A finite element geomechanical salt deformation model of the Mahogany salt body is developed, where deformation history is used as an input to the texture plasticity simulation program VPSC. Assuming a halite salt body, a full elasticity model is then calculated and used to create a synthetic VSP splitting data set. The comparison between the synthetic and real VSP data set shows that LPO of rock salt can explain the observed anisotropy remarkably well. This is the strongest evidence to date of seismic anisotropy in a deforming salt structure. Furthermore, for the first time, we are able to demonstrate clear evidence that deforming halite is the most likely cause of this anisotropy, combining data set analysis and synthetic full wave form modelling based on calculated rock salt elasticities. Neglecting anisotropy in seismic processing in salt settings could lead to potential imaging errors, for example the deformation models show an averaged delta parameter of δ = –0.06, which would lead in a zero offset reflection setting to a depth mismatch of 6.2 per cent. Our work also show how observations of salt anisotropy can be used to probe characteristics of salt deformation.

Description: Summary About a decade ago, noise-based monitoring became a key tool in seismology. One of the tools is Passive Image Interferometry (PII), which uses Noise Correlation Functions (NCF) to retrieve seismic velocity variations. Most studies apply PII to vertical components recording oceanic low-frequent ambient noise ( 1 Hz) on three three-component sensors. With environmental sensors inside the subsurface and in the air, we are able to connect observed velocity variations with environmental parameters. Temperatures below 0○C correlate well with strong shear wave velocity increases. The temperature sensors inside the ground suggest that a frozen layer of less than 5cm thickness causes apparent velocity increases above 2%, depending on the channel pair. The observations indicate that the different velocity variation retrieved from the different channel pairs are due to different surface wave responses inherent in the channel pairs. With dispersion curve modelling in a 1D medium we can verify that surfaces waves of several tens of meters wavelength experience a velocity increase of several percent due to a centimeters thick frozen layer. Moreover, the model verifies that Love waves show larger velocity increases than Rayleigh waves. The findings of this study provide new insights for monitoring with PII. A few days with temperature below 0○C can already mask other potential targets (e.g. faults or storage sites). Here we suggest to use vertical components, which is less sensitive to the frozen layer at the surface. If the target is the seasonal freezing, like in permafrost studies, we suggest to use three-component sensors in order to retrieve the Love wave response. This opens the possibility to study other small scale processes at the shallow subsurface with surface wave responses.

Description: SUMMARY The behaviour of tsunami waves at any location depends on the local morphology of the coasts, the encountered bathymetric features, and the characteristics of the source. However, the importance of accurately modelling the geometric properties of the causative fault for simulations of seismically induced tsunamis is rarely addressed. In this work, we analyse the effects of using two different geometric models of the subduction interface of the Calabrian Arc (southern Italy, Ionian Sea) onto the simulated tsunamis: a detailed 3-D subduction interface obtained from the interpretation of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles, and a planar interface that roughly approximates the 3-D one. These models can be thought of as representing two end-members of the level of knowledge of fault geometry. We define three hypothetical earthquake ruptures of different magnitudes (Mw 7.5, 8.0, 8.5) on each geometry. The resulting tsunami impact is evaluated at the 50-m isobath in front of coastlines of the central and eastern Mediterranean. Our results show that the source geometry imprint is evident on the tsunami waveforms, as recorded at various distances and positions relative to the source. The absolute differences in maximum and minimum wave amplitudes locally exceed one metre, and the relative differences remain systematically above 20 per cent with peaks over 40 per cent. We also observe that tsunami energy directivity and focusing due to bathymetric waveguides take different paths depending on which fault is used. Although the differences increase with increasing earthquake magnitude, there is no simple rule to anticipate the different effects produced by these end-member models of the earthquake source. Our findings suggest that oversimplified source models may hinder our fundamental understanding of the tsunami impact and great care should be adopted when making simplistic assumptions regarding the appropriateness of the planar fault approximation in tsunami studies. We also remark that the geological and geophysical 3-D fault characterization remains a crucial and unavoidable step in tsunami hazard analyses.

Description: SUMMARY We present results from complementary geological, topographic, seismic and electrical resistivity surveys at the Sagebrush Flat (SGB) site along the Clark fault (CF) strand of the San Jacinto fault zone trifurcation area southeast of Anza, California. Joint interpretation of these data sets, each with unique spatiotemporal sensitivities, allow us to better characterize the shallow (

Description: Using a Lagrangian trajectory model, contributions of moisture from the Indian Ocean (IO), the South China Sea (SCS), the adjacent land region (LD), and the Pacific Ocean (PO) to interannual summer precipitation variations in southwestern China (SWC) are investigated. Results show that, on average, the IO, SCS, LD, and PO contribute 48.8%, 21.1%, 23.6%, and 3.7% of the total moisture release in SWC, respectively. In summers with the above-normal precipitation, moisture release from the IO and SCS increases significantly by 41.4% and 15.1%, respectively. In summers with below-normal precipitation, moisture release from the IO and SCS decreases significantly by 44.2% and 24.6%, respectively. In addition, the moisture anomalies from the four source regions together explain 86.5% of the total interannual variances of SWC summer precipitation, and the IO and SCS only can explain 75.7%. Variations in moisture transport from the IO, SCS, and LD to SWC are not independent of one another and are commonly influenced by the anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific Ocean, which enhances the moisture transport from the IO and SCS by the anomalous southwesterlies over its northwestern quadrant but reduces that from the LD east of SWC by the anomalous westerlies along its northern edge. Anomalous warming in the tropical Atlantic Ocean can modify the Walker circulation, induce anomalous descending motion over the central tropical Pacific, and excite the anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific as the classic Matsuno–Gill response. The observed impacts of the tropical Atlantic warming on the anomalous anticyclone and summer precipitation in SWC can be well reproduced in an atmospheric general circulation model.

Description: The 2013 Lushan Mw 6.7 earthquake is the largest blind thrust event ever occurred on the southern segment of the Longmen Shan fault system. It has attracted extensive attention since it occurred 5 yr later following the 2008 Mw 7.8 Wenchuan destructive earthquake in this region. However, its slip distribution is still on debate due to the complex tectonic settings and limited near-field observations. In this study, we added some near-field GPS data, together with previously published GPS data and levelling data, and take consideration of possible coseismic and post-seismic effects caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, to construct a more accurate horizontal and vertical coseismic surface displacement field associated with the 2013 Lushan earthquake with a better spatial coverage. Then we invert for a refined slip distribution based on a flat-ramp-flat fault suggested by the relocated aftershock sequence and seismic imaging. Our preferred fault plane is striking southwest with 211° and dipping at varying angles of 4°, 35° and 12° separately for such a flat-ramp-flat geometry. The main rupture is roughly characterized by two asperities, including a round disk on the ramp with larger slips and an adjoining oval asperity on the shallow flat with smaller slips. The maximum slip is 1.2 m at 14.3 km focal depth, located at ∼20 km to the northwest of the GCMT epicentre. The released geodetic moment is 1.50 $ imes $ 1019 Nm, equivalent to a Mw 6.7 earthquake. The slips on the fault plane clearly illustrate that this event is dominated by the thrusting and minor striking, which is consistent with its tectonic settings. Furthermore, if we assume the 2013 Mw 6.7 Lushan event to be the characteristic earthquake on the southern section of the Longmen Shan thrust zone, the accumulated strain should not be fully released by this strong event, and a potential seismic risk still exists in this region.

Description: The NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is an experimental rapidly updating convection-allowing ensemble designed to provide probabilistic operational guidance on high-impact thunderstorm hazards. The current WoFS uses physics diversity to help maintain ensemble spread. We assess the systematic impacts of the three WoFS PBL schemes—YSU, MYJ, and MYNN—using novel, object-based methods tailored to thunderstorms. Very short forecast lead times of 0–3 h are examined, which limits phase errors and thereby facilitates comparisons of observed and model storms that occurred in the same area at the same time. This evaluation framework facilitates assessment of systematic PBL scheme impacts on storms and storm environments. Forecasts using all three PBL schemes exhibit overly narrow ranges of surface temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed. The surface biases do not generally decrease at later forecast initialization times, indicating that systematic PBL scheme errors are not well mitigated by data assimilation. The YSU scheme exhibits the least bias of the three in surface temperature and moisture and in many sounding-derived convective variables. Interscheme environmental differences are similar both near and far from storms and qualitatively resemble the differences analyzed in previous studies. The YSU environments exhibit stronger mixing, as expected of nonlocal PBL schemes; are slightly less favorable for storm intensification; and produce correspondingly weaker storms than the MYJ and MYNN environments. On the other hand, systematic interscheme differences in storm morphology and storm location forecast skill are negligible. Overall, the results suggest that calibrating forecasts to correct for systematic differences between PBL schemes may modestly improve WoFS and other convection-allowing ensemble guidance at short lead times.

Description: The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

Description: Heated tipping-bucket (TB) gauges are used broadly in national weather monitoring networks, but their performance for the measurement of solid precipitation has not been well characterized. Manufacturer-provided TB gauges were evaluated at five test sites during the World Meteorological Organization Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (WMO-SPICE), with most gauge types tested at more than one site. The test results were used to develop and evaluate adjustments for the undercatch of solid precipitation by heated TB gauges. New methods were also developed to address challenges specific to measurements from heated TB gauges. Tipping-bucket transfer functions were created specifically to minimize the sum of errors over the course of the adjusted multiseasonal accumulation. This was based on the hypothesis that the best transfer function produces the most accurate long-term precipitation records, rather than accurate catch efficiency measurements or accurate daily or hourly precipitation measurements. Using this new approach, an adjustment function derived from multiple gauges was developed that performed better than traditional gauge-specific and multigauge catch efficiency derived adjustments. Because this new multigauge adjustment was developed using six different types of gauges tested at five different sites, it may be applicable to solid precipitation measurements from unshielded heated TB gauges that were not evaluated in WMO-SPICE. In addition, this new method of optimizing transfer functions may be useful for other types of precipitation gauges, as it has many practical advantages over the traditional catch efficiency methods used to derive undercatch adjustments.

Description: This article illustrates how multifrequency radar observations can refine the mass–size parameterization of frozen hydrometeors in scattering models and improve the correlation between the radar observations and in situ measurements of microphysical properties of ice and snow. The data presented in this article were collected during the GPM Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) (2012) and Olympic Mountain Experiment (OLYMPEx) (2015) field campaigns, where the true mass–size relationship was not measured. Starting from size and shape distributions of ice particles measured in situ, scattering models are used to simulate an ensemble of reflectivity factors for various assumed mass–size parameterizations (MSP) of the power-law type. This ensemble is then collocated to airborne and ground-based radar observations, and the MSPs are refined by retaining only those that reproduce the radar observations to a prescribed level of accuracy. A versatile “retrieval dashboard” is built to jointly analyze the optimal MSPs and associated retrievals. The analysis shows that the optimality of an MSP depends on the physical assumptions made in the scattering simulators. This work confirms also the existence of a relationship between parameters of the optimal MSPs. Through the MSP optimization, the retrievals of ice water content M and mean diameter Dm seem robust to the change in meteorological regime (between GCPEx and OLYMPEx); whereas the retrieval of the diameter spread Sm seems more campaign dependent.

Description: Larval settlement is a key process in the lifecycle of benthic marine organisms; however, little is known on how it could change in reduced seawater pH and carbonate saturation states under future ocean acidification (OA). This is important, as settlement ensures species occur in optimal environments and, for commercially important species such as abalone, reduced settlement could decrease future population success. We investigated how OA could affect settlement success in the New Zealand abalone Haliotis iris by examining: (1) direct effects of seawater at ambient (pHT 8.05) and reduced pHT (7.65) at the time of settlement, (2) indirect effects of settlement substrates (crustose coralline algae, CCA) preconditioned at ambient and reduced pHT for 171 days, and (3) carry-over effects, by examining settlement in larvae reared to competency at ambient and reduced pHT (7.80). We found no effects of seawater pH or CCA incubation on larval settlement success. OA-induced carry-over effects were evident, with lower settlement in larvae reared at reduced pH. Understanding the mechanisms behind these responses is key to fully comprehend the extent to which OA will affect marine organisms and the industries that rely on them.

Description: 2-D full-waveform inversion (FWI) of shallow-seismic wavefields has recently become a novel way to reconstruct S-wave velocity models of the shallow subsurface with high vertical and lateral resolution. In most applications, seismic wave attenuation is ignored or considered as a passive modelling parameter only. In this study, we explore the feasibility and performance of multiparameter viscoelastic 2-D FWI in which seismic velocities and attenuation of P and S waves, respectively, and mass density are inverted simultaneously. Synthetic reconstruction experiments reveal that multiple crosstalks between all viscoelastic material parameters may occur. The reconstruction of S-wave velocity is always robust and of high quality. The parameters P-wave velocity and density exhibit weaker sensitivity and can be reconstructed more reliably by multiparameter viscoelastic FWI. Anomalies in S-wave attenuation can be recovered but with limited resolution. In a field-data application, a small-scale refilled trench is nicely delineated as a low P- and S-wave velocity anomaly. The reconstruction of P-wave velocity is improved by the simultaneous inversion of attenuation. The reconstructed S-wave attenuation reveals higher attenuation in the shallow weathering zone and weaker attenuation below. The variations in the reconstructed P- and S-wave velocity models are consistent with the reflectivity observed in a ground penetrating radar (GPR) profile.

Description: The presence of sets of open fractures is common in most reservoirs, and they exert important controls on the reservoir permeability as fractures act as preferential pathways for fluid flow. Therefore, the correct characterization of fracture sets in fluid-saturated rocks is of great practical importance. In this context, the inversion of fracture characteristics from seismic data is promising since their signatures are sensitive to a wide range of pertinent fracture parameters, such as density, orientation and fluid infill. The most commonly used inversion schemes are based on the classical linear slip theory (LST), in which the effects of the fractures are represented by a real-valued diagonal excess compliance matrix. To account for the effects of wave-induced fluid pressure diffusion (FPD) between fractures and their embedding background, several authors have shown that this matrix should be complex-valued and frequency-dependent. However, these approaches neglect the effects of FPD on the coupling between orthogonal deformations of the rock. With this motivation, we considered a fracture model based on a sequence of alternating poroelastic layers of finite thickness representing the background and the fractures, and derived analytical expressions for the corresponding excess compliance matrix. We evaluated this matrix for a wide range of background parameters to quantify the magnitude of its coefficients not accounted for by the classical LST and to determine how they are affected by FPD. We estimated the relative errors in the computation of anisotropic seismic velocity and attenuation associated with the LST approach. Our analysis showed that, in some cases, considering the simplified excess compliance matrix may lead to an incorrect representation of the anisotropic response of the probed fractured rock.

Description: The filtering properties of the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and the model calibrated drought index (MCDI) are investigated to determine their relations to past, present, and future precipitation anomalies in regions with a wide diversity of precipitation characteristics. All three indices can be closely approximated by weighted averages of precipitation, but with different weighting. The SPI is well represented by one-sided, uniformly weighted averages; the MCDI is well represented by one-sided, exponentially weighted averages; and the PDSI is well represented by two-sided, exponentially weighted averages with much higher weighting of past and present precipitation than future precipitation. Detailed analyses identify interpretational complications and other undesirable features in the SPI and PDSI. In addition, the PDSI and MCDI are each restricted to single regionally specific “intrinsic” time scales that can significantly differ between the two indices. Inspired by the strengths of the SPI, PDSI, and MCDI, a hybrid index is developed that consists of exponentially weighted averages of past and present precipitation that are implicit in the PDSI and MCDI. The explicit specification of the exponential weighting allows users to control the time scale of the hybrid index to investigate precipitation variability on any time scale of interest. This advantage over the PDSI and MCDI is analogous to the controllability of the time scale of the SPI, but the exponentially fading memory is more physical than the uniform weighting of past and present precipitation in the SPI.

Description: This study investigates the association between summer high temperature extremes (HTEs) over China and the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) that is characterized by an anomalous north–south sea surface temperature gradient and an anomalous surface circulation over the northeastern subtropical Pacific. It is found that the HTE activities over most parts of southern China (particularly eastern China) are prominently intensified during the positive PMM phase and weakened during the negative phase. Further examinations suggest that the PMM is linked with HTEs in China through processes that entail both eastward and westward development of signals emanating from the PMM site. The westward development is associated with the formation of an anomalous low-level cyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP), which may be viewed as a Matsuno–Gill-type response to the off-equatorial heating in the eastern Pacific. This circulation change is accompanied by anomalous ascent over WNP and northern China, and subsidence over eastern China. On the other hand, the eastward development process is linked to the PMM-induced displacement of the East Asian jet stream and the generation of a midlatitude Rossby wave train. In the positive PMM phase, the above circulation changes are accompanied by anomalous air subsidence and enhanced adiabatic heating, reduced precipitation, anomalous lower-level anticyclone, and rising surface pressure over the eastern part of China. Moreover, the land surface of that region receives more solar radiation. Opposite changes are discernible over northern China. These changes are favorable for the occurrence and persistence of HTEs over eastern China and tend to suppress HTEs over northern China.

Description: Currently, major efforts are under way to refine the horizontal resolution of weather and climate models to kilometer-scale grid spacing (Δx). Besides refining the representation of the atmospheric dynamics and enabling the use of explicit convection, this will also provide higher resolution in the representation of orography. This study investigates the influence of these resolution increments on the simulation of orographic moist convection. Nine days of fair-weather thermally driven flow over the Alps are analyzed. Two sets of simulations with the COSMO model are compared, each consisting of three runs at Δx of 4.4, 2.2, and 1.1 km: one set using a fixed representation of orography at a resolution of 8.8 km, and one with varying representation at the resolution of the computational mesh. The spatial distribution of precipitation during daytime is only marginally affected by the orographic details, but nighttime convection to the south of the Alps—triggered by cold-air outflow from the valleys—is very sensitive to orography and precipitation is enhanced if more detailed orography is provided. During daytime, the onset of precipitation is delayed. The amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation is reduced, even though more moisture converges toward the Alpine region during the afternoon. The hereby accumulated moisture sustains precipitation during the evening and nighttime over the surrounding plains. For these differences, the effects of changes in orographic detail are more important than changes in grid spacing. In addition, the individual convective cells are weaker, but their number increases with higher resolved orography.

Description: Recent studies proposed leading averaged coupled covariance (LACC) as an effective strongly coupled data assimilation (SCDA) method to improve the coupled state estimation over weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). This SCDA method, however, has been previously evaluated only in the perfect model scenario. Here, as a further step toward evaluating LACC for real world data assimilation, LACC is evaluated for the assimilation of reanalysis data in a CGCM. Several criteria are used to evaluate LACC against the benchmark WCDA. It is shown that despite significant model bias, LACC can improve the coupled state estimation over WCDA. Compared to WCDA, LACC increases the globally averaged anomaly correlation coefficients (ACCs) of sea surface temperature (SST) by 0.036 and atmosphere temperature at the bottom level (Ts) by 0.058. However, there also exist regions where WCDA outperforms LACC. Although the reduction in the anomaly root-mean-square error (RMSE) is not as consistently clear as the increase in ACC, LACC can largely correct the biased model climatology.

Description: SUMMARY Seismic full waveform inversion (FWI) is a state-of-the-art technique for estimating subsurface physical models from recorded seismic waveform, but its application requires care because of high non-linearity and non-uniqueness. The final outcome of global convergence from conventional FWI using local gradient information relies on an informative starting model. Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling is able to remove such dependence, by a direct extensive search of the model space. We use a Bayesian trans-dimensional MCMC seismic FWI method with a parsimonious dipping layer parametrization, to invert for subsurface velocity models from pre-stack seismic shot gathers that contain mainly reflections. For the synthetic study, we use a simple four-layer model and a modified Marmousi model. A recently collected multichannel off-shore seismic reflection data set, from the Lord Howe Rise (LHR) in the east of Australia, is used for the field data test. The trans-dimensional FWI method is able to provide model ensembles for describing posterior distribution, when the dipping-layer model assumption satisfies the observed data. The model assumption requires narrow models, thus only near-offset data to be used. We use model stitching with lateral and depth constraints to create larger 2-D models from many adjacent overlapping submodel inversions. The inverted 2-D velocity model from the Bayesian inference can then be used as a starting model for the gradient-based FWI, from which we are able to obtain high-resolution subsurface velocity models, as demonstrated using the synthetic data. However, lacking far-offset data limits the constraints for the low-wavenumber part of the velocity model, making the inversion highly non-unique. We found it challenging to apply the dipping-layer based Bayesian FWI to the field data. The approximations in the source wavelet and forward modelling physics increase the multimodality of the posterior distribution; the sampled velocity models clearly show the trade-off between interface depth and velocity. Numerical examples using the synthetic and field data indicate that trans-dimensional FWI has the potential for inverting earth models from reflection waveform. However, a sparse model parametrization and far offset constraints are required, especially for field application.

Description: SUMMARY Parker–Oldenburg's method is perhaps the most commonly used technique to estimate the depth of density interface from gravity data. To account for large density variations reported, for instance, at the Moho interface, between the ocean seawater density and marine sediments, or between sediments and the underlying bedrock, some authors extended this method for variable density models. Parker–Oldenburg's method is suitable for local studies, given that a functional relationship between gravity data and interface geometry is derived for Earth's planar approximation. The application of this method in (large-scale) regional, continental or global studies is, however, practically restricted by errors due to disregarding Earth's sphericity. Parker–Oldenburg's method was, therefore, reformulated also for Earth's spherical approximation, but assuming only a uniform density. The importance of taking into consideration density heterogeneities at the interface becomes even more relevant in the context of (large-scale) regional or global studies. To address this issue, we generalize Parker–Oldenburg's method (defined for a spherical coordinate system) for the depth of heterogeneous density interface. Furthermore, we extend our definitions for gravity gradient data of which use in geoscience applications increased considerably, especially after launching the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) gravity-gradiometry satellite mission. For completeness, we also provide expressions for potential. The study provides the most complete review of Parker–Oldenburg's method in planar and spherical cases defined for potential, gravity and gravity gradient, while incorporating either uniform or heterogeneous density model at the interface. To improve a numerical efficiency of gravimetric forward modelling and inversion, described in terms of spherical harmonics of Earth's gravity field and interface geometry, we use the fast Fourier transform technique for spherical harmonic analysis and synthesis. The (newly derived) functional models are tested numerically. Our results over a (large-scale) regional study area confirm that the consideration of a global integration and Earth's sphericty improves results of a gravimetric forward modelling and inversion.

Description: The growing seismic networks and the increasing number of permanent seismic stations can help in improving the physical basis of seismic hazard assessment. For this purpose, the definition of reference site conditions is of great significance. If a reliable estimate of the reference ground motion is known, its modification at any given site can be modelled with respect to that reference site. Since the choice of a well-characterized reference site is not straightforward, mainly due to the high variability in the shallow layers, such choices prove to be affected by large uncertainties. While proxy parameters like the average S-wave velocity over the uppermost 30 m (vS30) might help in characterizing reference site conditions, such parameters are neither available at all sites nor do they allow concluding that the site is not affected by amplification and attenuation effects. In this study, we identify prospective reference sites across Europe in a harmonized and fully data-driven way. All analysis is based on freely available geological and geophysical data and no on-site measurements or site-specific proxies are required. The study accounts for both the influence of amplification and attenuation in a large frequency range. To address the key conceptual issues, we verify our classification based on machine learning techniques in which the influence of the individual site characterization parameters is investigated. Our study indicates that around 250 sites in Europe over more than 2000 investigated are not affected by local site effects and can de facto be considered as reference sites based on the criteria applied.

Description: The S-receiver function (SRF) technique is an effective tool to study seismic discontinuities in the upper mantle such as the mid-lithospheric discontinuity (MLD) and the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB). This technique uses deconvolution and aligns traces along the maximum of the deconvolved SV signal. Both of these steps lead to acausal signals, which may cause interference with real signals from below the Moho. Here we go back to the origin of the S-receiver function method and process S-to-P converted waves using S-onset times as the reference time and waveform summation without any filter like deconvolution or bandpass. We apply this ‘causal’ SRF (C-SRF) method to data of the USArray and obtain partially different results in comparison with previous studies using the traditional acausal SRF method. The new method does not confirm the existence of an MLD beneath large regions of the cratonic US. The shallow LAB in the western US is, however, confirmed with the new method. The elimination of the MLD signal below much of the cratonic US reveals lower amplitude but highly significant phases that previously had been overwhelmed by the apparent MLD signals. Along the northern part of the area with data coverage we see relics of Archean or younger north-west directed low-angle subduction below the entire Superior Craton. In the cratonic part of the US we see indications of the cratonic LAB near 200 km depth. In the Gulf Coast of the southern US we image relics of southeast directed shallow subduction, likely of mid-Paleozoic age.

Description: Ambient noise correlation has been used extensively to retrieve traveltimes of surface waves. However, studies of retrieving amplitude information and attenuation from ambient noise are limited. In this study, we develop methods and strategies to extract Rayleigh wave amplitude and attenuation from ambient noise correlation, based on theoretical derivation, numerical simulation, and practical considerations of real seismic data. The synthetic data included a numerical simulation of a highly anisotropic noise source and Earth-like temporally varying strength. Results from synthetic data validate that amplitudes and attenuations can indeed be extracted from noise correlations for a linear array. A temporal flattening procedure is effective in speeding up convergence while preserving relative amplitudes. The traditional one-bit normalization and other types of temporal normalization that are applied to each individual station separately are problematic in recovering attenuation and should be avoided. In this study, we propose an ‘asynchronous’ temporal flattening procedure for real data that does not require all stations to have data at the same time. Furthermore, we present the detailed procedure for amplitude retrieval from ambient noise. Tests on real data suggest attenuations extracted from our noise-based methods are comparable with those from earthquakes. Our study shows an exciting promise of retrieving amplitude and attenuation information from ambient noise correlations and suggests practical considerations for applications to real data.

Description: Under stably stratified conditions, the dissipation rate ε of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) is related to the structure function parameter for temperature CT2, through the buoyancy frequency and the so-called mixing efficiency. A similar relationship does not exist for convective turbulence. In this paper, we propose an analytical expression relating ε and CT2 in the convective boundary layer (CBL), by taking into account the effects of nonlocal heat transport under convective conditions using the Deardorff countergradient model. Measurements using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with high-frequency response sensors to measure velocity and temperature fluctuations obtained during the two field campaigns conducted at Shigaraki MU observatory in June 2016 and 2017 are used to test this relationship between ε and CT2 in the CBL. The selection of CBL cases for analysis was aided by auxiliary measurements from additional sensors (mainly radars), and these are described. Comparison with earlier results in the literature suggests that the proposed relationship works, if the countergradient term γD in the Deardorff model, which is proportional to the ratio of the variances of potential temperature θ and vertical velocity w, is evaluated from in situ (airplane and UAV) observational data, but fails if evaluated from large-eddy simulation (LES) results. This appears to be caused by the tendency of the variance of θ in the upper part of the CBL and at the bottom of the entrainment zone to be underestimated by LES relative to in situ measurements from UAVs and aircraft. We discuss this anomaly and explore reasons for it.

Description: The themed article set (TS) “Science in support of a nonlinear non-equilibrium world” reflects the challenge presented by the increasing potential for complex non-linear behaviour in marine ecosystems, many of which are undergoing dramatic changes due to anthropogenic perturbations. Marine ecosystems are complex adaptive systems, yet management strategies are often guided by a linear, stable perspective that excludes non-linearities and the possibility for evolution and adaptation. Rapidly increasing amounts of observational data, the interdisciplinary development of powerful mathematical approaches from complexity theory, and the evolving complex adaptive systems approach that includes human behaviour promise to substantially advance the development of management strategies. For these reasons, the ICES Journal of Marine Science solicited contributions to a TS that would take up these issues. In this introduction, I focus on three important areas—causality, prediction, and emergence—where a “non-linear” perspective can advance our understanding and better support sustainable management of ecosystems. I briefly present the nine contributions that are included in the themed set and suggest some ways forward. We hope that these articles serve to convince managers and marine scientists of the benefits of incorporating approaches and results from research on non-linear dynamics.

Description: The island of Pantelleria, located in the Sicily Channel Rift Zone (Italy), has been the site of violent peralkaline silicic magmatism alternating with minor effusive to low-intensity Strombolian eruptions of basaltic composition. The basaltic rock suites exposed on the island were sampled to investigate the plumbing system dynamics through the study of chemical stratigraphy and temporal records of olivine crystals. Our petrographic and geochemical observations, together with the compositional variability of olivine, suggest different evolutionary histories for basaltic magmas erupted over two major periods divided by the ∼45 ka Green Tuff (GT) eruption. Core-to-rim compositional traverses across olivine crystals document different types of zoning. We recognized olivine zones affected by Fo oscillations at very fine scales in the inner cores, rims and/or in intermediate portions of crystals and used them to reconstruct the residence and passage of crystals through different magmatic environments, with P–T–ƒO2 and compositional characteristics constrained by thermodynamic modeling. The sequence of magmatic environments evidenced by olivine zoning indicate that the pre-GT volcanic period was dominated by injection at shallow crustal levels (∼300–200 MPa) of primitive melts, initially moving from a deep storage zone at the crust-mantle boundary. Supply of this magma significantly decreased after the GT eruption, while the dynamics of magma transfer within the upper portion of the plumbing system were greatly enhanced. The diffusive relaxation of olivine zoning provided the timing of storage and migration of a crystal through different environments. For magmas feeding the ancient (〉45 ka) basaltic activity we retrieved transfer histories that are much longer (up to ∼3 years) if compared with those calculated for the post-GT basalts (1–9 months). The compositional and temporal dataset presented in this study supports the idea that the GT eruption and the subsequent collapse of the volcanic edifice could have caused major changes to the internal structural setting of Pantelleria, creating more favorable conditions for the migration of magmas in the upper portions of the plumbing system.