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  • 1
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Risk communication : a mental models approach (2002)
    Cambridge : Cambridge University Press
    Details Availability
    Call number: PIK D 024-04-0292 ; PIK D 024-01-0463 ; PIK D 024-04-0292
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 351 S , ill
    ISBN: 0521802237 , 0-521-00256-7
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Branch Library: PIK Library
    Branch Library: PIK Library
    Branch Library: PIK Library
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Uncertainty in risk assessment (1985)
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Environmental science & technology 19 (1985), S. 662-667 
    Details
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es00138a002
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Aggregate, Disaggregate, and Hybrid Analyses of Ecological Risk Perceptions (2005)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 25 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Laypeople's perceptions of health and safety risks have been widely studied, but only a few studies have addressed perceptions of ecological hazards. We assembled a list of 39 attributes of ecological hazards from the literatures on comparative risk assessment, ecological health, environmental conservation and management, environmental psychology, and risk perception. In Study 1, 125 laypeople evaluated 83 hazards on subsets of this attribute set. Factor analysis of attribute ratings (averaged over participants) revealed six oblique factors: ecological impacts, human impacts, human benefits, aesthetic impacts, scientific understanding, and controllability. These factors predicted mean judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, acceptability, and regulatory strictness. In Study 2, 30 laypeople each evaluated 34 hazards on 17 attributes and 3 dependent variables. Aggregate-level factor analysis of these data replicated the appropriate portion of the factor solution and yielded similar regression results. Parallel analyses at the individual-participant level yielded factors that explained less variance in judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, and acceptability. However, the decrease in explanatory power was much less than is often reported for disaggregate-level analyses of psychometric data. This discrepancy illustrates the importance of distinguishing between the level of analysis (aggregate versus disaggregate) and the focus of analysis (distinctions among hazards versus distinctions among participants). In a hybrid analysis, aggregate-level factor scores predicted individual participants' riskiness judgments reasonably well. Psychometric studies such as these provide a sound empirical basis for selecting attributes of ecological hazards for use in comparative risk assessment.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00599.x
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (I): Overview and Test Bed Development (2001)
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Risk analysis 21 (2001), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Risk ranking offers a potentially powerful means for gathering public input to help set risk-management priorities. In most rankings conducted to date, the categories and attributes used to describe the risks have varied widely, the materials and procedures have not been designed to facilitate comparisons among risks on all important attributes, and the validity and reproducibility of the resulting rankings have not been assessed. To address these needs, a risk-ranking method was developed in which risk experts define and categorize the risks to be ranked, identify the relevant risk attributes, and characterize the risks in a set of standardized risk summary sheets, which are then used by lay or other groups in structured ranking exercises. To evaluate this method, a test bed involving 22 health and safety risks in a fictitious middle school was created. This article provides an overview of the risk-ranking method and describes the challenges faced in designing the middle school test bed. A companion article in this issue reports on the validity of the ranking procedures and the level of agreement among risk managers regarding ranking of risks and attributes.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.215161
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A Deliberative Method for Ranking Risks (II): Evaluation of Validity and Agreement among Risk Managers (2001)
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Risk analysis 21 (2001), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A deliberative method for ranking risks was evaluated in a study involving 218 risk managers. Both holistic and multiattribute procedures were used to assess individual and group rankings of health and safety risks facing students at a fictitious middle school. Consistency between the rankings that emerged from these two procedures was reasonably high for individuals and for groups, suggesting that these procedures capture an underlying construct of riskiness. Participants reported high levels of satisfaction with their groups’ decision-making processes and the resulting rankings, and these reports were corroborated by regression analyses. Risk rankings were similar across individuals and groups, even though individuals and groups did not always agree on the relative importance of risk attributes. Lower consistency between the risk rankings from the holistic and multiattribute procedures and lower agreement among individuals and groups regarding these rankings were observed for a set of high-variance risks. Nonetheless, the generally high levels of consistency, satisfaction, and agreement suggest that this deliberative method is capable of producing risk rankings that can serve as informative inputs to public risk-management decision making.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.215162
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a “behavioral test bed” to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When modelsmust be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative “surprises” can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb00384.x
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A Method for Evaluating Transmission Line Magnetic Field Mitigation Strategies That Incorporates Biological Uncertainty (1995)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 15 (1995), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: A method to determine how much reduction in public exposure to power frequency magnetic fields can be obtained for different levels of investment is presented. Which if any “effects function” best describes the relationship between field exposure and biological effect is uncertain at this time. Also, in a particular context such as construction of new transmission lines there are a variety of different technologies which might be used to reduce exposure. We describe and demonstrate a method by which exposure reduction supply curves (i.e., the cost of purchasing different amounts of exposure reduction given various mitigation options) can be estimated parametrically for different exposure conditions and effects functions, and we display illustrative results.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00324.x
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Bounding Poorly Characterized Risks: A Lung Cancer Example (2004)
    350 Main Street , Malden , MA 02148 , USA , and 9600 Garsington Road , Oxford OX4 2DQ , UK . : Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
    Risk analysis 24 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: For diseases with more than one risk factor, the sum of probabilistic estimates of the number of cases caused by each individual factor may exceed the total number of cases observed, especially when uncertainties about exposure and dose response for some risk factors are high. In this study, we outline a method of bounding the fraction of lung cancer fatalities not due to specific well-studied causes. Such information serves as a “reality check” for estimates of the impacts of the minor risk factors, and, as such, complements the traditional risk analysis. With lung cancer as our example, we allocate portions of the observed lung cancer mortality to known causes (such as smoking, residential radon, and asbestos fibers) and describe the uncertainty surrounding those estimates. The interactions among the risk factors are also quantified, to the extent possible. We then infer an upper bound on the residual mortality due to “other” causes, using a consistency constraint on the total number of deaths, the maximum uncertainty principle, and the mathematics originally developed of imprecise probabilities.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00508.x
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A Computer Aid for Risk and Other Policy Analysis (1985)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 5 (1985), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: The use of appropriately designed computer aids for policy could improve the standards of risk analysis and other quantitative policy analysis in several important ways. They could make it easier to treat uncertainties more thoroughly and systematically than is now typical. To do this, they should provide a broad variety of techniques for representing uncertain quantities as ranges of alternative values or as probability distributions, for propagating uncertainties through a model, for analyzing and comparing the impacts of different sources of uncertainty, and for displaying results in various numerical and graphic formats. A nonprocedural modeling language allowing interactive editing of input values and model structure could encourage exploration and progressive refinement of models, and comparison of alternative formulations. The integration of model documentation and explanatory text within the computer representation could encourage maintenance of consistency between different versions of the mathematical structure and their descriptions. It could also allow interactive scrutiny of the model assumptions and sensitivities by outside reviewers. We describe a particular system, Demos, designed to provide these facilities and test their usefulness. The use of Demos is illustrated by an analysis of the risks and optimal control level for a hypothetical air pollutant, with uncertainty about the population exposure, health effects, and control costs. This example demonstrates progressive refinement of a model, and various kinds of parametric and probabilistic uncertainty analysis. Demos is now being used by a growing number of risk analysts, students, and policy researchers in a wide variety of tasks.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1985.tb00170.x
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Evaluating Risk Communications: Completing and Correcting Mental Models of Hazardous Processes, Part II (1994)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Risk analysis 14 (1994), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: We propose a decision-analytic framework, called the mental models approach, for evaluating the impact of risk communications. It employs multiple evaluation methods, including think-aloud protocol analysis, problem solving, and a true-false test that allows respondents to express uncertainty about their answers. The approach is illustrated in empirical comparisons of three brochures about indoor radon.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00290.x
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