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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 9 (1993), S. 147-164 
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The dynamics of the wintertime atmospheric response to the 1986/87 El Niño SST anomalies is studied. A GCM used for this purpose simulates a wave train over the Pacific/North American (PNA) region that agrees closely in amplitude with that observed, but phase shifted 30° to the east. Linear baroclinic model experiments are performed in order to determine the origin of the GCM and observed stationary wave anomalies, with particular focus on the cause for GCM failure. Diagnostics with the linear model reveal that the GCM and observed wave train anomalies are maintained by very different processes. In the GCM, the forcing due to tropical diabatic heating and transient vorticity fluxes are equally important over the PNA region. In the observations, the transient vorticity fluxes assume the primary role. The cause for these discrepancies is traced to the different dynamic influences of suppressed rainfall near Indonesia. The associated diabatic cooling is found to excite a large amplitude wave train over the PNA region in the GCM, while no significant extratropical response to cooling is found in the observations. The combined effects of the diabatic cooling and the reorganization of the storm track transients by the remotely forced wave train acts to shift the GCM's wave train well to the cast of that observed. Due to uncertainties in the observed diabatic forcing, however, it is not clear to what extent the GCM's failure is due to errors in the simulated anomalous forcing and/or to the GCM's mean climate error.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: Summer extreme heat waves (EHWs) over the Texas area and their trend are investigated using observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) output. There is a positive linear trend in Texas EHW days for the period 1979–2015. While the interannual variability of the Texas EHWs is linked to ENSO conditions, the upward trend in Texas EHWs is found to be significantly associated with the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient (PZSSTG). The amplification of PZSSTG leads to both enhanced convection in the western Pacific and suppressed convection in the central-eastern Pacific (i.e., La Niña–like pattern), both of which can induce anomalous anticyclones over the Texas area through two distinct planetary wave trains in the antecedent spring. As a result, anomalously sinking motions and divergent water vapor flux appear over the Texas area, which reduce precipitation and increase downward solar radiation, leading to dry and hot soil that favors the occurrence of Texas summer EHWs. In addition, all AGCMs using observed SSTs as boundary conditions were able to simulate the observed decreasing trend in Texas summer precipitation and the observed increasing trend in Texas summer surface air temperature. The observed relationships between winter PZSSTG and the following spring–summer Texas precipitation/temperature were also reproduced by these models, where the intensified PZSSTG tended to reduce the Texas precipitation while increasing the surface air temperature.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-06-10
    Description: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections have been recognized as possible negative influences on crop yields in the United States during the summer growing season, especially in a developing La Niña summer. This study examines the physical processes of the ENSO summer teleconnections and remote impacts on the United States during a multiyear La Niña life cycle. Since 1950, a developing La Niña summer is either when an El Niño is transitioning to a La Niña or when a La Niña is persisting. Due to the distinct prior ENSO conditions, the oceanic and atmospheric characteristics in the tropics are dissimilar in these two different La Niña summers, leading to different teleconnection patterns. During the transitioning summer, the decaying El Niño and the developing La Niña induce suppressed deep convection over both the subtropical western Pacific (WP) and the tropical central Pacific (CP). Both of these two suppressed convection regions induce Rossby wave propagation extending toward North America, resulting in a statistically significant anomalous anticyclone over northeastern North America and, therefore, a robust warming signal over the Midwest. In contrast, during the persisting summer, only one suppressed convection region is present over the tropical CP induced by the La Niña SST forcing, resulting in a weak and insignificant extratropical teleconnection. Experiments from a stationary wave model confirm that the suppressed convection over the subtropical WP during the transitioning summer not only contributes substantially to the robust warming over the Midwest but also causes the teleconnections to be different from those in the persisting summer.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2018-03-01
    Description: John Wesley Powell, in the nineteenth century, introduced the notion that the 100th meridian divides the North American continent into arid western regions and humid eastern regions. This concept remains firmly fixed in the national imagination. It is reexamined in terms of climate, hydrology, vegetation, land use, settlement, and the agricultural economy. It is shown there is a stark east–west gradient in aridity roughly at the 100th meridian that is well expressed in hydroclimate, soil moisture, and “potential vegetation.” The gradient arises from atmospheric circulations and moisture transports. In winter, the arid regions west of the 100th meridian are shielded from Pacific storm-related precipitation and are too far west to benefit from Atlantic storms. In summer, the southerly flow on the western flank of the North Atlantic subtropical high has a westerly component over the western plains, bringing air from the interior southwest, but it also brings air from the Gulf of Mexico over the eastern plains, generating a west–east moisture transport and precipitation gradient. The aridity gradient is realized in soil moisture and a west-to-east transition from shortgrass to tallgrass prairie. The gradient is sharp in terms of greater fractional coverage of developed land east of the 100th meridian than to the west. Farms are fewer but larger west of the meridian, reflective of lower land productivity. Wheat and corn cultivation preferentially occur west and east of the 100th meridian, respectively. The 100th meridian is a very real arid–humid divide in the physical climate and landscape, and this has exerted a powerful influence on human settlement and agricultural development.
    Electronic ISSN: 1087-3562
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2018-01-24
    Description: Anthropogenic aerosols are a major factor contributing to human-induced climate change, particularly over the densely populated Asian monsoon region. Understanding the physical processes controlling the aerosol-induced changes in monsoon rainfall is essential for reducing the uncertainties in the future projections of the hydrological cycle. Here we use multiple coupled and atmospheric general circulation models to explore the physical mechanisms for the aerosol-driven monsoon changes on different time scales. We show that anthropogenic aerosols induce an overall reduction in monsoon rainfall and circulation, which can be largely explained by the fast adjustments over land north of 20∘N. This fast response occurs before changes in sea surface temperature (SST), largely driven by aerosol-cloud interactions. However, aerosol-induced SST feedbacks (slow response) cause substantial changes in the monsoon meridional circulation over the oceanic regions. Both the land-ocean asymmetry and meridional temperature gradient are key factors in determining the overall monsoon circulation response. ©2018. The Authors.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2018-06-18
    Description: Two independent atmospheric general circulation models reveal that the positive (negative) phase of Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) can reduce (amplify) the variance of the shorter time-scale (e.g., ENSO related) precipitation fluctuations in the United States, especially in the Southwest, as well as decrease (increase) the long-term seasonal mean precipitation for the cold season. The variance is modulated because of changes in 1) dry day frequency and 2) maximum daily rainfall intensity. With positive AMV forcing, the upper-level warming originating from the increased precipitation over the tropical Atlantic Ocean changes the mean vertical thermal structure over the United States continent to a profile less favorable for rain-inducing upward motions. In addition, a northerly low-level dry advection associated with the local overturning leaves less available column moisture for condensation and precipitation. The opposite conditions occur during cold AMV periods.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2018-05-03
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2018-05-03
    Description: The net surface water budget, precipitation minus evaporation (P − E), shows a clear seasonal cycle in the U.S. Southwest with a net gain of surface water (positive P − E) in the cold half of the year (October–March) and a net loss of water (negative P − E) in the warm half (April–September), with June and July being the driest months of the year. There is a significant shift of the summer drying toward earlier in the year under a CO2 warming scenario, resulting in substantial spring drying (March–May) of the U.S. Southwest from the near-term future to the end of the current century, with gradually increasing magnitude. While the spring drying has been identified in previous studies, its mechanism has not been fully addressed. Using moisture budget analysis, it was found that the drying is mainly due to decreased mean moisture convergence, partially compensated by the increase in transient eddy moisture flux convergence. The decreased mean moisture convergence is further separated into components as a result of changes in circulation (dynamic changes) and changes in atmospheric moisture content (thermodynamic changes). The drying is found to be dominated by the thermodynamic-driven changes in column-averaged moisture convergence, mainly due to increased dry zonal advection caused by the climatological land–ocean thermal contrast, rather than by the well-known “dry get drier” mechanism. Furthermore, the enhanced dry advection in the warming climate is dominated by the robust zonal mean atmospheric warming, leading to equally robust spring drying in the southwestern United States.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2016-02-15
    Description: Recent Arctic sea ice changes have important societal and economic impacts and may lead to adverse effects on the Arctic ecosystem, weather, and climate. Understanding the predictability of Arctic sea ice melting is thus an important task. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is evaluated for predicting the summertime (May–September) daily Arctic sea ice concentration on the intraseasonal time scale, using only the daily sea ice data and without direct information of the atmosphere and ocean. The intraseasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice is assessed using the 1979–2012 satellite data. The cross-validated forecast skill of the VAR model is found to be superior to both the anomaly persistence and damped anomaly persistence at lead times of ~20–60 days, especially over northern Eurasian marginal seas and the Beaufort Sea. The daily forecast of ice concentration also leads to predictions of ice-free dates and September mean sea ice extent. In addition to capturing the general seasonal melt of sea ice, the model is also able to capture the interannual variability of the melting, from partial melt of the marginal sea ice in the beginning of the period to almost a complete melt in the later years. While the detailed mechanism leading to the high predictability of intraseasonal sea ice concentration needs to be further examined, the study reveals for the first time that Arctic sea ice can be predicted statistically with reasonable skill at the intraseasonal time scales given the small signal-to-noise ratio of daily data.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2016-06-28
    Description: The recent accelerated Arctic sea ice decline has been proposed as a possible forcing factor for midlatitude circulation changes, which can be projected onto the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and/or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode. However, the timing and physical mechanisms linking AO responses to the Arctic sea ice forcing are not entirely understood. In this study, the authors suggest a connection between November sea ice extent in the Barents and Kara Seas and the following winter’s atmospheric circulation in terms of the fast sea ice retreat and the subsequent modification of local air–sea heat fluxes. In particular, the dynamical processes that link November sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas with the development of AO anomalies in February is explored. In response to the lower-tropospheric warming associated with the initial thermal effect of the sea ice loss, the large-scale atmospheric circulation goes through a series of dynamical adjustment processes: The decelerated zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies propagate gradually from the subarctic to midlatitudes in about one month. The equivalent barotropic AO dipole pattern develops in January because of wave–mean flow interaction and firmly establishes itself in February following the weakening and warming of the stratospheric polar vortex. This connection between sea ice loss and the AO mode is robust on time scales ranging from interannual to decadal. Therefore, the recent winter AO weakening and the corresponding midlatitude climate change may be partly associated with the early winter sea ice loss in the Barents and Kara Seas.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
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